Individual Economists

Real Assets: How Not to Invest

The Big Picture -

 

 

Yes, the HNTI podcast series continues in 2026 (albeit at a much slower pace)

Barry Ritholtz, co-founder, chairman and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, is out with a new book titled “How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behavior that Destroy Wealth—and How to Avoid Them,” which he discusses along with his earlier book “Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy.”

Ritholtz is also creator of The Big Picture blog, and creator and host of the Bloomberg podcast Masters in Business. (01/2026)

Via Real Assets ASdviser

 

The post Real Assets: How Not to Invest appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025.   It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 January
The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 January. ...

28 December 2025 through 3 January 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024 and 2025):

Occupancy: 50.5% (+4.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$175.47 (+3.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$88.65 (+7.9%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
It is difficult to judge performance early in the year.
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next few months. 

UK Government Video Game Warns Kids They May Be Terrorists For Questioning Mass Migration

Zero Hedge -

UK Government Video Game Warns Kids They May Be Terrorists For Questioning Mass Migration

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a chilling move, the UK government has rolled out a taxpayer-funded video game that paints every curious teenager as a potential far-right extremist. The “Pathways” game, backed by the Home Office’s Prevent counter-terrorism program, threatens young players with referrals to anti-terror experts simply for questioning unchecked mass migration or engaging with online debates about British identity.

This indoctrination tool assumes teens are one wrong click away from radicalisation, equating basic concerns over job competition or veteran housing with illegal hate groups. It’s a blatant assault on free thought, designed to stifle dissent and enforce globalist narratives in schools—exposing the state’s tightening grip on the next generation.

The game, developed by Shout Out UK with funding from Prevent, targets 11- to 18-year-olds. Players guide a character named Charlie—using “they” pronouns—through everyday scenarios that quickly spiral into warnings of extremism.

For instance, after being outperformed by a black student, Charlie faces a choice: accept it or blame immigrants for “stealing jobs.” Opting for the latter ramps up an in-game extremism meter.

One scenario involves a video claiming “Muslim men are stealing the places of British veterans in emergency accommodation” and “the Government is betraying white British people and we need to take back control of our country.” Engaging with it leads to a flood of “harmful ideological messages,” with the game stating, “Unfortunately, Charlie didn’t realise that some of the groups they were engaging in were actually illegal.”

Even researching immigration statistics online is portrayed as a gateway to danger, bombarding players with material on the “replacement” of white people. Joining a protest against “the changes that Britain has been through in the last few years and the erosion of British values” nearly ends in arrest, with the revelation that it “seemed to be more about racism and anti-immigration than British values and honouring fallen veterans.”

As The Telegraph reports, bad choices within the game culminate in counseling for “ideological thoughts” or full Prevent referrals, complete with mentors to teach the “differences between right and wrong in expressing political beliefs.”

Matteo Bergamini, founder and CEO of Shout Out UK, defended the game, saying, “Teaching media literacy ensures that all those impacted by our programmes leave with life-long tools and skills to safeguard themselves from these threats. Our Pathways game is designed for the local threat picture in collaboration with the local authority and funded by the Home Office, to teach about the concept of extremism and radicalisation and illustrate the scope of online dangers and radicalisation routes.”

A Home Office spokesman added, “Prevent has diverted nearly 6,000 people away from violent ideologies, stopping terrorists and keeping our country safe. We provide funding to local authorities to tackle a range of threats, including Islamist extremism and Extreme Right Wing.”

Yet this comes amid growing scrutiny of Prevent’s overreach. GB News highlighted how the program now flags concerns about mass migration as a “terrorist ideology,” including “cultural nationalism” where Western culture faces threats from unchecked integration failures. Referrals for right-wing views hit 19% in 2024, outpacing Islamist cases despite MI5’s focus on the latter as 75% of threats.

This isn’t isolated. Recall our recent coverage where a teacher was branded a terrorist threat for showing Trump videos in a U.S. politics class. The educator recounted, “It was just terrifying; just mind-boggling. We were discussing the US election, Trump had just won and I showed a couple of videos from the Trump campaign. Next thing, I was accused of bias. One of the students said they were emotionally disturbed and claimed to have had nightmares.” The Local Authority Designated Officer warned his views “could constitute a hate crime” and risked “radicalisation.”

Such cases expose the left’s weaponization of Prevent against conservative ideas. Now, add in to this dystopian recipe the Labour government’s push to ban X entirely, with the frankly laughable excuse that images of people in bikinis can be created using Grok.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer raged, “This is disgraceful. It’s disgusting, and it’s not to be tolerated,” insisting “all options are on the table” over Grok AI’s image generation. Labour MP Lola McEvoy declared platforms like X “have no right to be accessed in this country” if non-compliant.

Leaked messages show MPs calling Elon Musk a “fascist” and urging abandonment of the platform. This aligns perfectly with “Pathways”—silencing online spaces where teens might encounter unfiltered views on migration or freedom.

There also exists a horrible double standard where schools freely indoctrinate kids with outright fabrications, such as pushing “non-fiction” books claiming Black people built Stonehenge, and were integral in other historical developments, part of a “decolonizing” push that insists Britain was “a black country for more than 7,000 years before white people came.”

The hypocrisy deepens with radical gender ideology flooding classrooms. Trans lobbyists from Stonewall are demanding over 300 schools scrap terms like “boys and girls,” opting for neutral language, gender-neutral bathrooms, and identical uniforms—all under the guise of “inclusion.” Schools paying into Stonewall’s scheme must embed LGBTQ+ propaganda across the curriculum, ignoring government guidance against promoting “gender identity ideology.”

This teacher-shaming fits into a broader, sinister trend: the UK government’s push to teach children how to “spot extremist content and misinformation” in schools, embedding “critical thinking” that suspiciously aligns with establishment narratives.

Under the Labour government, kids are being indoctrinated to analyse articles and websites and weed out “putrid conspiracy theories,” grooming the next generation to police thought.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has warned: “If the parameters that are set are to say to every kid, if you read a post that questions net zero and global warming, it will be extreme content, and a lie, if you read a post that even dares to question levels of immigration, legal or illegal into Britain, that that’s extremist, then you start to set a narrative for a future generation that is fundamentally undemocratic.” Farage has labeled Prime Minister Keir Starmer the “biggest threat to free speech” in British history.

As X owner Elon Musk has warned, the British public simply have to come together and get on board with stopping this lurch toward tyranny dead in its tracks now, before it’s too late.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/11/2026 - 08:10

Minnesota's Most Notorious Somali Daycare At Center Of Fraud Scandal Abruptly Shuts Down

Zero Hedge -

Minnesota's Most Notorious Somali Daycare At Center Of Fraud Scandal Abruptly Shuts Down

The Quality Learing Center is no more. 

The Minneapolis child care center thrust into the spotlight by a viral YouTube exposé on Minnesota's rampant day care fraud scheme has officially shut down. State records confirm Quality Learning Center requested its license closure, effective Tuesday. 

Late last month, independent journalist Nick Shirley released a video in which he toured nearly a dozen centers, exposing them for pocketing public funds without delivering services. Quality Learning Center stood out for its sign bearing a glaring typo - “Learing” - that operators scrambled to fix after the clip went viral. The footage captured an empty-looking facade and zero activity, fueling suspicions in a state already reeling from massive welfare scams.

Quality Learning Center closed on Tuesday, according to the Minnesota Department of Human Services' licensing records. The Minnesota Department of Children, Youth, and Families [DCYF] said that the center requested closure of its license effective Tuesday,” CBS News reported

The center raked in $1.9 million from Minnesota's Child Care Assistance Program in fiscal 2025. DCYF got word on December 19 of a voluntary shutdown plan. Ten days later, an on-site check found operators reversing course, vowing to stay open. 

By January 6, records showed otherwise—closed tight.

"The provider is unable to reopen without reapplying for a license," DCYF reported

Shirley's clip reignited fury over Minnesota's social programs grift. Federal prosecutors have already nailed dozens for ripping off kid meal initiatives, autism therapy, and senior housing aid. Schemes ran deep, due to what appears to be intentionally lax oversight in Somali immigrant-heavy enclaves. 

Federal prosecutors have charged dozens of people with allegedly defrauding state programs that offered meals to needy children, behavioral therapy for children with autism and assistance for seniors searching for housing. 

The Trump administration deployed about 2,000 Department of Homeland Security agents to the Twin Cities earlier this week, with the stated goal of cracking down on fraud and undocumented immigration. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem joined the operation, which Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz called a "ridiculous surge" and a "show" for the cameras that has not been coordinated with the state.

President Trump's Department of Health and Human Services announced late last month it would freeze all federal child care funding for Minnesota amid the fraud investigations. On Tuesday, the department said it planned to halt billions more in social services funding for Minnesota and four other states led by Democrats.

Walz, who abruptly ended his reelection bid earlier this week, lashed out at President Trump, accusing him of using fraud investigations as a pretext to target Minnesota. He claimed the state is “under assault like no other time in our state’s history,” blaming what he called a “petty, vile administration” that he said shows no concern for the well-being of Minnesotans.

The daycare’s closure follows a prior attempt to appear legitimate. Days after Nick Shirley’s video first went viral, the once-empty center suddenly filled up with a couple of dozen kids who appeared to have been bused in, while staff and the owner’s son offered unconvincing excuses and angrily rebuffed reporters, underscoring a likely cover‑up.

​Neighbors explained that the center’s parking lot is usually empty, and they had “never seen kids go in there” before the controversy, raising suspicions that the facility was effectively non-operational despite supposedly serving dozens of children. Staff angrily denied fraud, with one worker telling a reporter to “get the f–k out of here.” 

The Quality Learning Center is not the first daycare center under scrutiny for engaging in cover-ups since Shirley’s video went viral. Last month, a different Somali-run day care, suspected of fraud, conveniently claimed it had been burglarized. According to Nasrulah Mohamed, manager of the Nokomis Day Care Center, thieves broke into the center, ignored the cash and electronics, and instead made off with employee and child enrollment records.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/11/2026 - 07:35

Africa's Pipeline Rejects Climate Dogma And Foreign Control

Zero Hedge -

Africa's Pipeline Rejects Climate Dogma And Foreign Control

Authored by Vijay Jayaraj via American Greatness,

Political powers in the United Nations and European Union have spent decades lecturing Africa on climate “virtue.” Net-zero pledges, renewable targets, ESG frameworks, and more make up the ever-growing list of prescriptions for “healing the planet.”

Having already industrialized through the use of fossil fuels and enjoying full bellies, stable power grids, and unprecedented luxury, the so-called elite of the developed world present a “low-carbon” economy as morally superior. African nations are pressured to use “sustainable” energy sources—mostly wind and solar technologies—to effectively prevent the development of the Dark Continent’s rich deposits of coal, oil, and natural gas and engender dependence on foreign governments.

Now, when an African entrepreneur moves decisively to break the chains of this dependency, the climate crusaders are revealed not as guardians of the planet, but as guardians of geopolitical control.

In November 2025, Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest businessman, signed a $1 billion development agreement with Zimbabwe’s president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, to build a 1,300-mile fuel pipeline stretching from Walvis Bay in Namibia through Botswana to Bulawayo in Zimbabwe. Teams are working on routing, logistics, land procurement, and regulatory details.

The project is Zimbabwe’s government policy, and the pipeline has become the country’s moral imperative. To understand why, we must look at the catastrophe of the status quo.

Few modern economies have collapsed as swiftly as Zimbabwe’s did under the government of the late Robert Mugabe, which was known for corruption and disastrous land reforms. A nation that once fed Southern Africa became a cautionary tale.

Although Mugabe was forced from office in 2017, Zimbabwe still faces 18-hour daily power cuts, which cause the country to lose more than 6% of gross domestic product every year, according to World Bank estimates. Removing that economic drag would create space for actual growth.

Green activists want the government to rely on the Kariba Dam, a hydroelectric facility that environmentalists consider “renewable.” But nature is not reliable. An El Niño-induced drought has reduced Kariba to a pitiful 9% capacity. The dam is drying up, and with it, the economic future of a nation.

More promising is the pipeline. Its route—from the Atlantic coast of Namibia, through the stable democracy of Botswana, into Zimbabwe—creates a new strategic energy corridor for Southern Africa. It integrates the 10 economies of the Southern African Development Community in a way that decades of political summits failed to do.

There is an irony in the geopolitics of this pipeline deal. For years, the West has warned Africa of the dangers of “Chinese debt traps,” while offering no viable alternative for energy infrastructure. Now, a pipeline is creating Pan-African commercial cooperation that bypasses both Western climate lectures and Beijing’s loans.

Estimates of the project’s job opportunities range from 50,000 to 100,000 positions across the project’s construction phase and operational lifetime. In nations with unemployment exceeding 20%, these are transformative numbers.

The Dagonte pipeline offers attractive economics: Foreign contractors, anticipating the expenses of regulatory compliance and “green” tape, would likely quote tens of billions for a similar corridor. Dangote is delivering the pipeline, a cement plant, a fertilizer factory, and power infrastructure for a fraction of that cost.

The project will make Dangote’s refinery in Lagos one of the world’s largest single-site refining operations, growing from a current 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4 million bpd by 2028.

These developments draw a new energy map in the region and threaten external interests. China and the West compete for influence over African resources. A regional fuel artery weakens their leverage. They cannot dictate terms to countries that supply their own energy.

For Zimbabwe, the implications are immediate. The economy pays punishing premiums for imported diesel delivered by truck. Every liter moves across multiple borders, each with tariffs and delays. Being landlocked leaves Zimbabwe exposed. The pipeline breaks that pattern. Once fuel flows from Walvis Bay to Bulawayo and onward to Zimbabwe’s capital at Harare, costs fall, and the manufacturing sector finally stops running on expensive fuel for running electricity generators.

This sends a terrifying signal to the climate czars that the developing world is waking up. Leaders like President Mnangagwa and industrialists like Dangote are realizing that the “Green Energy Transition” is a luxury good—likely a bogus one—they cannot afford. They are choosing the path of India and China—rapid industrialization fueled by whatever works. And what works, undeniably at this time, are fossil fuels.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/11/2026 - 07:00

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Stop, Shop, and Scroll: Behind every influencer is an army of the influenced, many adrift in debt and mass-produced clutter. The platforms need influencers and influencers need audiences — but what the influenced need is not so simple. (The Verge)

Prediction Markets Are Becoming a National Security Problem: The bets on Maduro’s ouster should be treated like a five-alarm fire. (Slate)

Under Armour’s Kevin Plank built an empire. Now Rome is burning. The decade brought a stunning collapse. Once a budding rival to Nike, Under Armour’s sales stalled and its stock plummeted. Forbes figures the 53-year-old Plank has lost two-thirds of his net worth. The company fended off allegations of fraud. He stepped aside as CEO. (The Baltimore Banner)

Peter Navarro, Trump’s Ultimate Yes-Man: The tariff cheerleader established the template of sycophancy for Trump Administration officials. (New Yorker)

• Small-Time Crypto Investors Are Facing Violent Attacks: Rising prices and the irreversible nature of crypto transactions have led to a surge of brutal home invasions and kidnappings. (BusinessWeek free)

Living in the Lie And How Not To. I find the endless lies and lying often to be the most infuriating and demoralizing part of the present situation. In the wake of this terrible killing in Minneapolis, my first thought, after the initial shock, anger, and sadness, was the knowledge that the next few days, months, weeks, and years would be filled with endless lying about what happened from the regime and its stooges. This filled me, if not quite with despair, then at least with a strong sense of depression. I suppose it has something to do with my vocation as a historian, where I can accept tragedy and even evil as unavoidable parts of the human experience, so long as witness can be borne and the truth eventually discovered.  Unpopular Front)

The Wrath of Stephen Miller: The man who turns President Trump’s most incendiary impulses into policy. (The Atlantic) see also The turbulent trajectory of Trump’s ‘Nazi streak’ acolyte: Paul Ingrassia’s almost Trumpian survival demonstrates how ideological affinity and personal loyalty can outweigh all other considerations in this administration. (Politico)

Why are malnutrition deaths soaring in America? “We see it across the board. Every state, every education level, every race, every gender.”  According to data, malnutrition deaths have jumped in the United States, especially among those 85 and older. Here’s why the numbers suddenly started to rise. (Washington Post)

DOJ admits it has still not released 99% of Epstein files, violating law: The DOJ said it is still reviewing millions of Epstein files, after previously claiming it completed the review in July. (Popular Information)

The Oddest Couple in American Literature: Norman Mailer and Lawrence Schiller’s Marilyn: A Biography sold more copies than anything Mailer ever wrote. He also believed it cost him a Nobel Prize (Airmail)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Ben Hunt, founder of Perscient, a firm that studies how narratives and stories shape markets, investing, and social behavior through the lens of information theory, game theory, and unstructured data analysis. His work analyzes the language, story arcs, and viral spread of explanations in media.

 

Inflation rates tended to rise in the 2 years after tariff increases and fall in the 2 years after tariff reductions
Source: Jon Hilsenrath, LinkedIn

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

It's Very Difficult To Believe China's Claim Of Mediating Between India & Pakistan

Zero Hedge -

It's Very Difficult To Believe China's Claim Of Mediating Between India & Pakistan

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

China is uniquely unqualified to mediate between them since it has territorial disputes with India and arms Pakistan to the teeth.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently claimed that his country mediated between India and Pakistan during last spring’s clashes, but it’s very difficult to believe that this actually happened.

Trump has repeatedly claimed the same despite India’s denials, which greatly contributed to the deterioration of their ties over the past year. India’s half-century-long position since the 1972 Simla Agreement has been that its problems with Pakistan are bilateral, ergo why it’s always rejected mediation since then.

Nevertheless, India cannot prevent other countries’ representatives from talking to Pakistan during bilateral crises, nor will it decline their calls after they’ve done so. Rather, it considers each pair of calls to be purely bilateral, and it’s always eager to share its perspective with them amidst regional tensions. After all, it would be a dereliction of its officials’ duty to voluntary cede the narrative to Pakistan, ergo why they’ll always take the opportunity to advance their country’s national interests during these times.

This background helps to better understand what China might have actually done last spring. Wang did indeed call his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on the same day, but as explained above, this wouldn’t have amounted to mediation. China is uniquely unqualified to mediate between them anyhow since it has territorial disputes with India and arms Pakistan to the teeth. Some of this equipment like the JF-17s was also used against India last spring.

That said, perhaps Wang truly believes that his talks with those two played a role in the ceasefire that followed, but it’s still curious that he waited over half a year to claim that China played a mediation role. He’d also know by now how furious Trump’s claim made India and the role that it played in the deterioration of their relation over the past year. It’s therefore unclear why he’d risk dealing damage to the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement partially brought about by the US’ aforesaid problems with India.

The context within which he made this claim helps explain his possible motive. He was speaking at a symposium titled “International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations” and was listing off examples of the “Chinese approach to settling hotspots.” The other examples included “northern Myanmar, the Iranian nuclear issue…the issues between Palestine and Israel, and the recent conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.” The only one that it can indisputably claim credit for is northern Myanmar.

The other four are Trump’s claimed achievements, though China has veritably tried mediating between Cambodia and Thailand but failed to get them to agree to a deal. In any case, the only cogent reason why Wang would portray all the others as examples of Chinese mediation even though it arguably didn’t play any such role in those conflicts is to promote China’s Global Security Initiative, one of President Xi Jinping’s flagship initiatives. The others concern developmentcivilization, and governance.

Wang seemingly calculated, whether rightly or wrongly, that promoting China’s Global Security Initiative at this specific moment in the global systemic transition is so important that it’s worth offending India. That’s the only explanation that makes sense, especially since he waited over half a year to make this claim and did so during an end-of-the-year diplomatic review, but this doesn’t mean that India will be understanding about it and his boast could still needlessly complicate their nascent rapprochement.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 23:20

Healthy Diets Are Getting Pricier, Yet More Affordable

Zero Hedge -

Healthy Diets Are Getting Pricier, Yet More Affordable

A healthy diet is often discussed as a top public health issue, but affordability remains one of its biggest barriers.

Over the past decade, food prices have climbed due to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and climate-related shocks. At the same time, incomes and food access have improved in many regions.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, highlights how these competing forces have shaped the global cost of eating well—and who is still being left behind.

The data for this visualization comes from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. It tracks the average daily cost of a healthy diet worldwide.

Healthy Diet Costs Are Rising

A healthy diet is defined as providing 2,330 kilocalories per day, with nutritionally adequate proportions across six food groups. These include starchy staples, vegetables, fruits, animal-source foods, legumes, nuts and seeds, and oils and fats.

In 2017, the average global cost of a healthy diet was $3.14 per person per day. By 2024, that figure had climbed to $4.46. The sharpest increases occurred after 2020, coinciding with pandemic-related disruptions and global food price inflation.

Affordability Is Improving Despite Higher Prices

While costs have risen, affordability has steadily improved. In 2017, 38.4% of the global population—about 2.93 billion people—could not afford a healthy diet. By 2024, that share had fallen to 31.9%, representing roughly 2.6 billion people.

Despite global progress, affordability challenges remain concentrated in low-income and conflict-affected regions. Even small increases in food prices can have outsized effects where households already spend a large share of income on food.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out How Much Meat do We Eat? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 22:45

Escobar: How Trump's Oily Dreams May Collapse In A Venezuelan Dark Pit

Zero Hedge -

Escobar: How Trump's Oily Dreams May Collapse In A Venezuelan Dark Pit

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

So the Big Oil Picture in Venezuela is way more complex than the Trump 2.0 gang suspects...

Let’s start with neo-Caligula’s new edicts on the imperial satrapy he says he now owns; not exactly edicts but outright threats directed to interim President Delcy Rodriguez:

  1. Crack down on “drug trafficking flows”. Well, this should actually be directed to Colombian and Mexican smugglers in cahoots with big American buyers.

  2. Expel Iranian, Cuban, and other “operatives hostile to Washington” – before Caracas is allowed to increase oil production. Not happening.

  3. Halt oil sales to “US adversaries”. Not happening.

Hence it becomes a near certainty that neo-Caligula may bomb Venezuela again.

Neo-Caligula, in a separate motormouth offensive, also clarified that he wants to somewhat overhaul the oil business in Venezuela via subsidies. It “could take less than 18 months”; then it morphed to “we can do it in less time than that, but it’ll be a lot of money”; and finally morphed to “a tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it.”

No, they won’t, as several proverbial “industry insiders” have advanced. US energy majors balk at the sight of investing fortunes in a nation that may be engulfed by total chaos if neo-Caligula forces a traitorous government over 28 million people.

According to Rystad Energy Analysis, it would take no less than 16 years and at least $183 billion for Venezuela to produce a mere 3 million barrels of oil a day.

Neo-Caligula’s ultimate dream is to reduce global oil prices to a maximum $50 a barrel. For this purpose, the Trump 2.0 imperial gig will, in thesis, totally control PDVSA, including acquisition and sale of virtually all of its oil production.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, at a Goldman Sachs energy conference, let the oily cat out of the bag:

“We are going to market the crude coming out of Venezuela, first this backed up stored oil [up to 50 million barrels], and then infinitely, going forward, we will sell the production that comes out of Venezuela into the marketplace.”

So essentially the neo-Caligula gig will capture, actually steal the sale of crude from PDVSA, with the money theoretically deposited in US-controlled offshore accounts to “benefit the Venezuelan people”.

There’s no way Delcy Rodriguez’s interim government will accept what amounts to de facto theft. Even as Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller is bragging that the US is using “military threat” to maintain control of Venezuela. If you are really in control, you don’t need to issue threats.

So what about China?

China was importing roughly 746,000 barrels of oil a day from Venezuela. That’s not much. Beijing is already working on replacing it with imports from Iran. China essentially is not dependent on Venezuelan oil. Apart from Iran, it may also source from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Beijing clearly sees that the imperial overdrive in the Western Hemisphere and in West Asia is not just about oil, but also to force China to buy energy with petrodollars. Nonsense: with Russia, the Persian Gulf and beyond, the name of the game is already petroyuan.

China is 80% energy independent. Venezuela de facto was accounting for a mere 2% of the 20% China imports – and this according to the US government’s own numbers.

China’s energy relationship with Venezuela goes way beyond cheap American formulas. Here is essentially outlined how “Chinese oil agreements with Venezuela are de facto binding financial contracts, with repayment mechanisms, collateral structures, penalty clauses, and derivative linkages embedded deep into global finance (…) They are connected – directly and indirectly – to Western financial institutions, commodity traders, insurers, and clearing systems, including entities tied to Wall Street. If these contracts are broken, the consequence is not China ‘taking a loss’. It is a cascade event: defaults triggering counterparty exposure, derivatives being repriced, legal disputes crossing jurisdictions, and confidence shock spreading outward. At a certain point, this ceases to be a Venezuelan problem and becomes a systemic global one.”

Moreover, “over the past twenty years, China has become the operational core of Venezuela’s oil industry. Not merely as a buyer, but as a builder. China provided refinery technology, heavy crude upgrading systems, infrastructure design, control software, spare parts logistics (…) Remove the Chinese engineers. Remove the technicians who understand the control logic. Remove the maintenance supply chains. Remove the software support. What remains is not a functioning oil industry waiting to be ‘liberated’, but an inert shell.”

Conclusion: “Converting Venezuela’s Chinese-built oil sector into an American one would take three to five years, minimum.”

Financial analyst Lucas Ekwame hits the major points. Venezuela produces superheavy oil as thick as tar. It doesn’t just flow; it needs to be melted to reach the surface, and after extraction, it hardens again, requiring diluent: no less than 0.3 barrels of diluent need to be imported for each exported barrel.

Compound it with Venezuela’s energy infrastructure shaped by China and at the same time suffering years of American sanctions, even worse than over Iraq in the early 2000s, and neo-Caligula’s faulty oil “strategy” becomes obvious.

That of course does not alter the short-term feast of imperial hedge fund vultures over Venezuela’s carcass, starting with ghastly Paul Singer, the billionaire Zionist hedge fund manager and MAGA super PAC donor ($42 million in 2024) whose Elliott Management acquired the Houston-based subsidiary of CITGO for $5.9 billion in November, less than a third of its $18 billion market value, thanks to the embargo on Venezuelan oil imports.

The speculative money crowd is bound to cash in on up to $170 billion in the debt market; defaulted PDVSA bonds alone are worth over $60 billion.

So the Big Oil Picture in Venezuela is way more complex than the Trump 2.0 gang suspects. Of course on the road ahead we may come to a situation where the Viceroy of Venezuela, the gusano Marco Rubio, cuts off the oil flow from Caracas to Shanghai. Well, considering Rubio’s strategic “expertise”, better start regimenting battalions of lawyers right away.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 22:10

These Are The World's Top Silver Producers

Zero Hedge -

These Are The World's Top Silver Producers

Silver prices surged more than 5% in recent trading, breaking above $80 per ounce once again.

The rally has been driven by China’s restrictions on silver exports, rising demand from green technologies like solar power, and renewed interest in safe-haven assets.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, highlights the world’s largest silver-producing countries and shows where global supply is most concentrated.

The data for this visualization comes from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. It presents estimated silver mine production by country for 2024.

Mexico’s Production Dominance

Total world silver production reached roughly 25,000 metric tons in 2024.

Mexico remained the world’s top silver producer in 2024, with an estimated 6,300 metric tons of output. The country has held this position for decades, supported by extensive mining infrastructure and high-grade deposits. Notably, Mexico produces far more silver than its reserve share might suggest, holding only about 6% of the world’s known reserves.

China and Peru Anchor Global Supply

China ranked second globally, producing around 3,300 metric tons of silver in 2024. Much of this output comes as a byproduct of large-scale base metal mining, particularly lead and zinc.

Peru followed closely with approximately 3,100 metric tons, reinforcing South America’s importance in global silver markets.

Together, these three countries accounted for more than half of global silver production.

Beyond the top producers, countries such as Bolivia, Poland, Chile, Russia, and the United States each produced between 1,100 and 1,300 metric tons. Australia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, and India also contributed meaningful volumes.

Despite this diversity, the silver market remains tight. Strong demand from solar panels, electronics, and electrification is expected to keep the market in a deficit, putting upwards pressure on silver prices.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out All of the World’s Oil Reserves by Country, in One Visualization on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 21:35

California's Billionaire Tax Is A Trojan Horse... Not A Solution

Zero Hedge -

California's Billionaire Tax Is A Trojan Horse... Not A Solution

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

California was my home for most of my adult life—long enough to know that what looks good in a campaign slogan can feel very different when you’re the one carrying the load.

I built restaurants there. I employed people there. I signed permits, licenses, and applications like they were holiday cards. I navigated agencies that asked for more paperwork than profit statements. I paid into a system that always wanted one more filing, one more inspection, one more approval, one more fee. The joke was that my assistant didn’t work in hospitality—she worked in compliance. And it was true. That state turns compliance into a profession.

So when I see the latest proposal—a one-time 5 percent tax on anyone whose net worth exceeds $1 billion—I don’t see Robin Hood. I see Sacramento writing itself a permission slip.

The pitch says “billionaires.” But the mechanism says “total assessed wealth, declared by the owner, verified by the state, and enforceable through audit.”

That’s a power move, not a nuance.

A Tax Based on Valuation, Not Reality

Most taxes in America hit earnings or consumption. You pay when you make money, or when you buy something, or when you sell something. This proposal taxes accumulation. It doesn’t ask what you can afford. It asks what you have, and then hands a calculator to the agencies to determine the bill.

We’ve seen how this evolves. The Biden administration and Vice President Kamala Harris already proposed a federal wealth tax on Americans worth $100 million or more. Not billionaires—$100 million. That’s a signal flare, not a footnote.

It tells you exactly what you need to know: This idea isn’t anchored at the top. It’s already drifting toward the middle.

And middle is where most of the money actually lives.

The Constitution Saw This Coming

There’s a phrase from constitutional law that gets thrown around a lot in conversations like this: bill of attainder.

A bill of attainder is a law that punishes a specific person or small identifiable group without a trial, skipping the courts and due process entirely. In the United States, that kind of law is unconstitutional—lawmakers don’t get to play judge and jury and penalize a select group through legislation alone.

This proposal isn’t a criminal punishment, but the reason people bring the term up at all is because it targets a tiny group by valuation for a massive extraction event without a court proceeding first. That resemblance matters if you believe fairness isn’t optional.

The Wealthy Already Pay Plenty—Just Quietly

People talk about the “rich dodging taxes” like it’s gospel. Let me tell you what actually happens when you build something in California:

You don’t dodge taxes, you drown in them. Not just income tax, not just property tax, but sales tax, alcoholic beverage tax, payroll taxes, employer-side filings, permits, licensing fees, inspections, regulatory approvals, environmental health certificates, building permits, land use permits, and on and on and on.

That state has already been collecting revenue from business owners in every direction long before this proposal ever landed on the ballot.

If you want to know why business owners left, it wasn’t a lack of patriotism. It was math.

The Trojan Horse Isn’t the Billionaire—It’s the Precedent

The billionaires are the branding. The mascot. The costume the idea wears so voters don’t inspect the gears.

But the gears are what matter, because once a state passes a tax on total assessed wealth, future thresholds can be lowered, exemptions can be rewritten, valuation formulas can be expanded, and enforcement will land in the hands of agencies most voters will never meet—but business owners never stop meeting.

The real question is not “Should billionaires pay more?” but “Should the state have the right to tax total assessed wealth at all?”

Because once that precedent exists, the definition of “rich” will keep shifting, the net will keep widening, and the bill will keep climbing down the balance sheet toward the people who never imagined they’d qualify.

A millionaire today in California is someone who owns a house. A house today costs a million dollars there. That’s not a billionaire. That’s a math teacher and a firefighter and a family with a mortgage.

The net will widen because the money they need is not all at the top. There’s much more sitting in the middle.

And middle-class is where precedent always ends up grazing.

My Stance

I lean libertarian—I don’t want government in every aspect of our lives, our kitchens, our land, or our asset valuations. I’m a hard no on expanding its discretion any further. The slogans may be sticky, but freedoms are stickier—once lost, they don’t come back.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 21:00

Amazon Is Ditching The United States Postal Service

Zero Hedge -

Amazon Is Ditching The United States Postal Service

After nearly three decades of working together, Amazon is ending its delivery relationship with the United States Postal Service, a move that significantly alters how packages are moved across the country, according to MSN.

The partnership once played a major role in Amazon’s rapid expansion while generating billions in yearly revenue for USPS. The decision comes as the Postal Service continues to struggle financially, including a reported $9.5 billion loss in its most recent fiscal year.

For much of Amazon’s growth, USPS provided nationwide coverage, especially in rural and remote areas where private carriers often cannot operate profitably. That reach allowed Amazon to deliver to virtually every address in the country, making the arrangement one of the largest public-private logistics partnerships in U.S. history. Recent contract negotiations and changes to USPS pricing appear to have pushed Amazon toward a different approach. Instead of renewing the agreement, the company is shifting more deliveries to its own expanding logistics network, tightening its control over speed, cost, and customer experience.

MSN notes that the shift raises serious concerns for workers. Analysts estimate that as many as 100,000 jobs connected directly or indirectly to Amazon’s shipping volume could be affected across postal operations, transportation, and contract delivery services. Although the changes may unfold gradually, declining package volume could lead to staffing reductions across multiple regions.

For USPS, losing Amazon removes a key revenue source that helped offset long-term declines in traditional mail. Without that income, the agency may be forced to accelerate cost-cutting, restructure routes, and reduce staffing through attrition and reorganization. At the same time, consumers may begin to notice changes in delivery patterns. In urban areas, Amazon drivers and third-party contractors are likely to take over more deliveries, while in less populated regions customers may experience shifts in delivery timing or service availability as Amazon adjusts its logistics footprint.

The Postal Service is now exploring new ways to stabilize revenue, including opening its delivery network to competitive bids from other retailers and logistics companies. The separation highlights the growing divide between public service obligations and the fast-moving demands of modern ecommerce. As private companies expand their own delivery systems and public institutions fight to remain financially viable, the end of this partnership may be remembered as a defining moment in the evolution of American logistics and commerce.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 20:25

DNC Signals Possible Legal Action Against 10 States Over Proposed DOJ Voter-List Agreement

Zero Hedge -

DNC Signals Possible Legal Action Against 10 States Over Proposed DOJ Voter-List Agreement

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) sent warning letters to election officials in 10 states on Friday, saying proposed agreements with the Justice Department to share unredacted voter registration files and act on list maintenance concerns could violate federal election law.

The letters went to election offices in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. In each, the DNC said the Justice Department indicated the state had entered or could soon enter a memorandum of understanding that “appears to require violations” of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).

A Justice Department spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email, “The Department of Justice has statutory authority to enforce our nation’s election laws and protect the integrity of our electoral system. Organizations should think twice before interfering in a federal investigation and encouraging the obstruction of justice, unless they’d like to join the dozens of states that are learning their lesson in federal court.”

Earlier this week, the Justice Department said it had sued Arizona and Connecticut, alleging the states failed to turn over their full voter registration rolls for federal inspection. DOJ said the filings brought its nationwide total to 23 states plus the District of Columbia in lawsuits tied to access to statewide voter registration lists.

In Arizona, the lawsuit says U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi requested the voter registration list from Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in July 2025 and later extended the deadline to September 2025. The suit says Fontes refused, citing state and federal privacy laws, and asks a court to compel production under the Civil Rights Act’s information-production provisions.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes told The Epoch Times that “Arizonans’ private voter registration information is not up for grabs,” and Fontes said he declined due to privacy concerns.

In Connecticut, the lawsuit says Bondi requested the list in August 2025 and then demanded it in December 2025, but Connecticut Secretary of State Stephanie Thomas said state law bars release of the information sought. Connecticut Attorney General William Tong said the state tried to work with DOJ but “rather than communicating productively with us, they rushed to sue.”

The DNC’s letters to the 10 states pointed to a proposed agreement that would require a state to agree that “within forty-five (45) days of receiving notice from the Justice Department of any issues, insufficiencies, inadequacies, deficiencies, anomalies, or concerns,” the state would “clean” its voter registration list or data “by removing ineligible voters” and resubmit updated data to DOJ for verification.

The party argued that a “45-Day Removal Demand” could conflict with NVRA provisions that govern how states remove voters based on suspected changes in residence and that restrict certain systematic list-maintenance activity close to federal elections. In a longer legal argument, the DNC said the NVRA’s affirmative list-maintenance mandate requires a “reasonable effort” to remove certain categories of ineligible registrants and argued the proposed demand goes beyond what federal law requires.

The letters also sought records from the states, including documents related to any DOJ agreement and information about any voters removed, inactivated, or contacted based on the 45-day demand or other DOJ-provided information, including the voter’s party affiliation and the purported basis of ineligibility. The letters asked for responsive records dating from Jan. 1, 2025, to the present.

The DNC signaled it could escalate the matter but said the current letters were not the formal notice that can precede litigation under the NVRA. In the Alabama letter, the DNC wrote that the state may not yet have violated the NVRA and said the letter “does not constitute written notice of violations of the NVRA,” adding that the party “stands ready to issue a formal notice” if evidence of ongoing violations emerges.

The DNC said its concerns were triggered, in part, by statements made in a Dec. 4, 2025, federal court hearing. In the Mississippi letter, the DNC cited a transcript and wrote that the acting chief of the DOJ Voting Section told a judge the state had “expressed ... a willingness” to enter a proposed memorandum concerning voter registration list maintenance.

The White House defended the Justice Department’s authority to press states on voter roll maintenance.

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told The Epoch Times in an email, “The Civil Rights Act, National Voting Rights Act, and Help America Vote Act all give the Department of Justice full authority to ensure states comply with federal election laws, which mandate accurate state voter rolls. President Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections, and that includes totally accurate and up-to-date voter rolls free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the 10 state officials addressed in the letters but did not hear back prior to publication.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 19:50

Wall Street's Crypto Debate Is Over As Banks Go All-In On BTC, Stablecoins, Tokenized Cash

Zero Hedge -

Wall Street's Crypto Debate Is Over As Banks Go All-In On BTC, Stablecoins, Tokenized Cash

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CoinTelegraph.com,

Big banks aren’t debating crypto anymore — they’re building it. From tokenized cash to ETFs, Wall Street is quietly going onchain.

For years, major banks treated cryptocurrency primarily as a risk to be contained. That posture is now giving way to a more deliberate form of engagement. Rather than debating crypto’s legitimacy, banks are increasingly deciding how and where to integrate it, from regulated investment products to blockchain-based payment rails.

This shift is on full display in this week’s Crypto Biz. JPMorgan is extending its US dollar deposit token onto new blockchain infrastructure, signaling that tokenized cash is moving closer to production use within global banking. 

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, is positioning itself to offer exposure to Bitcoin and Solana through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), potentially bringing crypto investments to millions of wealth management clients. 

Barclays has made its first bet on stablecoin infrastructure, backing settlement rails designed to connect regulated issuers with financial institutions. 

And Bank of America has taken another step toward normalization by allowing advisers to recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs to clients.

Together, these moves suggest the banking sector is no longer content to watch from the sidelines.

JPM Coin heads to the Canton Network

JPMorgan announced plans to issue its US dollar-denominated deposit token, JPM Coin (JPMD), natively on the Canton Network, marking another step by Wall Street toward production-ready blockchain infrastructure.

Digital Asset, the developer of the Canton Network, and Kinexys by JPMorgan will extend JPM Coin from its existing rails onto Canton’s privacy-focused layer-1 blockchain, enabling regulated digital cash to move across interoperable networks.

According to an announcement shared with Cointelegraph, JPM Coin, described as the first bank-issued, US dollar-denominated deposit token for institutional clients, represents a digital claim on JPMorgan’s dollar deposits and is designed to facilitate faster, more secure movement of regulated money on public blockchains.

“This collaboration brings to life the vision of regulated digital cash that can move at the speed of markets,” said Yuval Rooz, co-founder and CEO of Digital Asset.

Morgan Stanley enters crypto ETF race

US investment bank Morgan Stanley is entering the cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund market, with proposed products offering exposure to Bitcoin and Solana, following the strong debut of spot crypto ETFs in the United States.

The bank has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch two investment vehicles, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust and the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust, designed to provide passive investment exposure to the performance of their underlying digital assets.

If approved, the funds could be made available to more than 19 million clients within Morgan Stanley’s wealth management division, significantly expanding access to crypto-linked investment products.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have ranked among the most successful ETF launches on record, attracting substantial inflows during their first two years of trading. Momentum has continued into the new year, with renewed investor demand driving fresh inflows during the first trading sessions.

The 12 spot US Bitcoin ETFs have amassed more than 1.3 million BTC, valued at nearly $120 billion. Source: Bitbo

Barclays invests in stablecoin infrastructure

London-based banking giant Barclays has made its first investment in a stablecoin-focused company, signaling traditional finance’s growing interest in digital dollar infrastructure.

The bank announced an undisclosed investment in Ubyx, a US-based stablecoin clearing platform that connects regulated issuers with financial institutions to facilitate settlement and interoperability. The move also marks a notable shift for Barclays, which in recent years has publicly emphasized the risks associated with digital assets.

“This investment aligns with Barclays’ approach to explore opportunities based on new forms of digital money, such as stablecoins,” the bank said in a statement.

Ubyx has previously raised $10 million in seed funding, backed by Galaxy and Coinbase. The company was founded by Tony McLaughlin, a former Citibank executive.

Bank of America wealth advisers cleared to recommend Bitcoin ETFs

US investors may soon receive recommendations to buy Bitcoin ETFs from Bank of America’s private bank and Merrill Edge platforms, adding to evidence of Bitcoin’s growing integration into traditional finance.

The bank’s chief investment office has approved coverage of four U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including products offered by Bitwise, Fidelity, BlackRock and Grayscale. Collectively, the funds manage more than $100 billion in Bitcoin assets.

The move comes roughly a month after Bank of America reportedly advised wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets.

“For investors with a strong interest in thematic innovation and comfort with elevated volatility, a modest allocation of 1% to 4% in digital assets could be appropriate,” Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer at Bank of America Private Bank, told Yahoo. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 18:40

"Uninvestable": Trump's $100 Billion Venezuela Gamble Meets Oil Industry Reality

Zero Hedge -

"Uninvestable": Trump's $100 Billion Venezuela Gamble Meets Oil Industry Reality

President Donald Trump’s push for U.S. oil companies to commit at least $100 billion toward rebuilding Venezuela’s energy industry is meeting significant resistance from the very executives he is courting, according to Bloomberg.

Although the White House projects confidence, industry leaders are warning that Venezuela remains too unstable for major investment, with Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods describing the country bluntly as “uninvestable.”

At a closed-door meeting Friday with roughly 20 energy executives, Trump said he expected an agreement “today or very shortly thereafter” to restart large-scale drilling in Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro. He applied direct pressure, telling the group, “If you don’t want to go in, just let me know, because I’ve got 25 people that aren’t here today that are willing to take your place.”

Publicly, many executives praised the opportunity. Privately and in their remarks, they expressed deep concern about risk, governance, and long-term returns. Woods delivered the strongest warning, pointing to Venezuela’s unstable business environment and past expropriations. “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it’s uninvestable,” he said, noting Exxon’s assets there had already been seized twice. He questioned whether any future protections would hold: “How durable are the protections from a financial standpoint? What will the returns look like? What are the commercial arrangements, the legal frameworks?” Even so, he added that Exxon would be willing “to put a team on the ground” if invited and given proper security guarantees.

Other executives struck a cautious tone. Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm said the prospect “excites me as an explorationist,” but emphasized the scale of the task ahead: “There’s a huge investment that needs to be done — we’ve all agreed on that, and certainly we need time to see that through.”

Bloomberg writes that Trump, however, left the meeting projecting momentum. “We sort of formed a deal,” he told reporters, predicting companies would soon be investing “hundreds of billions of dollars in drilling oil.” Yet when pressed for specifics, Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged that Chevron — the only U.S. major still operating in Venezuela — was the only firm to make a concrete pledge. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said production, now about 240,000 barrels per day, could rise by roughly 50% within 18 to 24 months.

Trump sought to ease investor fears by promising sweeping protections: “You have total safety, total security,” he said. “You’re dealing with us directly — you’re not dealing with Venezuela or we don’t want you to deal with Venezuela.” Wright later said the administration’s priority is to “change the behavior of the government in Venezuela” and “drive better business conditions.”

The meeting included moments of levity over massive past losses. When ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said his company had absorbed a $12 billion hit in Venezuela, Trump replied, “Good write-off,” prompting Lance to respond, “It’s already been written off.”

Some executives were openly eager. Repsol’s CEO told Trump his company was “ready to invest more in Venezuela today,” and Armstrong Oil & Gas CEO Bill Armstrong said, “We are ready to go to Venezuela… it is prime real estate… kind of like West Palm about 50 years ago: very ripe.”

Still, many industry figures are uneasy about the optics and risks of the administration’s strategy, which critics argue amounts to an aggressive grab for Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Trump defended the move bluntly: “If we didn’t do this, China or Russia would have done it.”

Despite the uncertainty, Wright predicted Venezuela’s output would “hopefully” begin rising by summer and said, “They are going to ramp up investment immediately in the next few weeks… Can we achieve $100 billion investment over next 10 years? I think absolutely.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but decades of neglect, sanctions, and infrastructure collapse have pushed production below one million barrels per day. Rebuilding even a fraction of its former output will require years of work and tens of billions of dollars to repair abandoned rigs, corroded pipelines, and heavily damaged facilities.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 18:05

Not Worth A Continental

Zero Hedge -

Not Worth A Continental

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

In late-18th-century America, something of minimal value was often described as being “not worth a continental,” which referred to the continental dollar, the American currency at the time of the revolution.

The continental was paper money. It had occurred to the colonists that, as their revolution was costing quite a bit to maintain, they could go into “temporary” debt to finance the war. Soon it became clear that the debt could not be repaid. Also, the printing of paper banknotes resulted in inflation. The solution? Print more of them. Further devaluation of the continental motivated the colonists to print more… then more… then still more. The continental became worthless, either for local trade or for repayment of debt.

The new country, the United States, then did something quite unusual. In its new Constitution, it created a clause to assure that this would never happen again. Under Article I, Section 10, the states were not permitted to “coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; [or] make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

The founding fathers of the US had figured out that the issuance of paper currency was a disaster in the making, and in 1792, passed the Coinage Act, denominating coins to be minted. The act authorized three gold coins: $10.00 eagles, $5.00 half eagles, and $2.50 quarter eagles, in addition to silver coins.

Of course, later US political leaders have largely committed the Constitution to the dustbin. Since that time, dozens of countries have followed a similar pattern of war/debt/hyperinflation. Let’s look at a few:

German 100 “billionen” mark banknote, ca. 1923

Reparations for WWI were required in hard currency. The papiermark was printed in mass quantity to buy foreign currency in order to pay reparations. The proliferation of bank notes caused the cost of goods to rise dramatically.

This rise was so dramatic that it led to a flight by Germans into hard assets, to avoid holding paper bank notes. (This is the classic tipping point at which inflation morphs into hyperinflation.) Predictably, governmental operation costs also rose. An increase in taxation was of no value, as it would be paid in the devaluating currency.

If the government stopped the inflation, this would cause immediate bankruptcies, unemployment, strikes, etc. But if they continued, they would default on the foreign debt through hyperinflation. They chose the latter, which, although ultimately more destructive, would buy the politicians a bit more time. (Hyperinflation is seen today as having paved the way for Adolf Hitler and the Nazi takeover of Germany.)

Hungarian 100 million billion pengő, ca. 1946

In 1945, Hungary was severely strapped for money, as a result of WWII. The Hungarian National Bank was instructed to issue currency proportional to whatever the budget required. Silver coinage disappeared. Banknotes were issued with no cover of any kind, and hyperinflation took hold.

As always, the government was confident that it could control inflation, but once hyperinflation took over, it was entirely beyond control. It is important to note that hyperinflation, once it begins, spreads like wildfire. The Hungarian hyperinflation began at the end of 1945 and peaked the following July.

Yugoslav 500 billion dinar banknote, ca. 1993

More recently, Yugoslavia, economically weakened by regional war, had used up all its hard currency reserves and decided to loot the savings of its citizens. This it did through the printing of money and increasing restrictions on citizens’ savings in government banks.

Not surprisingly, inflation rose dramatically. The government reacted by imposing price controls, which eliminated profits, so manufacturers ceased to produce essential goods. By 1993, when prices were doubling every fifteen hours, the country had reached the point that bakers stopped making bread.

Zimbabwe 100 trillion dollar banknote, ca. 2008

Zimbabwe’s civil war emptied the country’s treasury. Beginning in1998, President Robert Mugabe took land and other assets from white farmers and redistributed them to less-experienced black farmers. Food exports plummeted, prompting Mugabe to print more currency. Revenues to government suffered as a result, with wages failing to keep up. Hospitals and schools developed chronic staffing problems, because nurses and teachers could not afford bus fare to get to work. The capital of Harare was without water, because the authorities had stopped paying the bills to buy and transport the treatment chemicals. By 2008, prices were doubling every 24 hours.

There are many other examples, but the ones listed above provide a fairly good thumbnail sketch. There are many paths by which political leaders may destroy a country’s economy through hyperinflation. But those leaders who follow the standard checklist of the most common components to collapse can generally be assured that the economy will be destroyed. Let’s have a look at that checklist:

  • War (Can be one major war, or, as in today’s world, perpetual small wars)

  • Depletion of gold reserves

  • Excessive Debt (Create a debt level that is beyond the ability to repay)

  • Devaluation of currency (Print massive amounts of currency to diminish debt)

  • Loss of control of inflation (Inflation morphs into hyperinflation—a state in which citizens actively try to rid themselves of the currency, as it is devaluating so quickly.)

We are living in a period in which much of the world has committed the first three to four of the above grave errors and is reaching the tipping point at which the fifth kicks in. It’s important to emphasise that hyperinflation is never actually anticipated by governments; it always occurs suddenly, and it happens very fast. In addition, once begun, it never reverses direction. It always plays out until a complete monetary collapse occurs.

Back in the beginning paragraphs of this article, we mentioned that, in 1787, America’s founding fathers took the highly unusual step of enshrining in the Constitution a control to assure that private banks would never again create fiat currencies. The 1792 Coinage Act provided for a coin of the land—the “eagle,” which was to be made of gold.

The paper continental, along with the silver certificate and the gold certificate, has long since disappeared, but the US gold eagle is still being minted today.

And here’s the interesting aspect of gold coinage: The eagle has the same purchasing power as it did back in 1787. Whilst its nominal value may rise and fall, one ounce of gold purchases the same amount of goods as it has throughout history.

The significance of this is that gold, in essence, does not go up and down in value. Rather, gold is the standard by which currencies go up and down. Over the course of history, there have occasionally been anomalies in which gold is down for a brief time, or it is overbought and a bubble briefly occurs. But gold is like the seas: it has its tides, but like water, it seeks its own level and invariably continues as the standard of value.

In times like the present one, when we may anticipate the hyperinflation of numerous currencies, those seeking to preserve what they have, might wish to turn to gold as a relative safe haven, as mankind has done for 5000 years.

*  *  *

History is remarkably consistent. From the worthless continental to Weimar Germany, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Zimbabwe, the pattern is always the same—governments print their way out of trouble, currencies collapse, and those holding paper wealth pay the price. The constant thread running through every one of these episodes is that gold did not fail; the currencies around it did. If you’d like a deeper, unfiltered look at why gold has survived every monetary breakdown for thousands of years—and why it matters now—we’ve arranged a free video featuring legendary investor Doug Casey. In it, he explains what most commentators still refuse to acknowledge about today’s monetary system and what history suggests comes next. Click here to watch the free video now. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 17:30

Minneapolis City Officials Dismantle 'No-Go Zone' Set Up By Anti-ICE Agitators

Zero Hedge -

Minneapolis City Officials Dismantle 'No-Go Zone' Set Up By Anti-ICE Agitators

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Leftwing agitators in Minneapolis on Thursday set up a short-lived  “autonomous zone” that spanned several blocks in the southeastern part of the city, and reportedly declared it a “no-go zone” for law enforcement.

The city however removed the barricades surrounding it overnight to allow residents and first responders access to the area.

On Wednesday, 37-year-old Renee Nicole Macklin Good, was shot and killed by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, after she had accelerated her Honda Pilot toward the officer, hitting and injuring him.

Leftwing operatives immediately seized on the incident to incite disorder and riots in the Twin Cities and elsewhere.

Thursday night, activists were seen setting up barricades in the street with stolen trash bins, Christmas trees and other materials, blocking residents and police from driving in the neighborhood.

According to independent journalist Nick Sortor, the makeshift barricades were set up at all intersections, with “guards” posted at each one.

The anti-ICE agitators brought in food, drinks and medical supplies, placing the items on tables under pop-up canopies in the street. At least one of the canopies contained a portable fire pit. Activists also set fires in the street to stay warm.

“This looks almost IDENTICAL to CHAZ, or the ‘Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone’ in Seattle in 2020, where the city SURRENDERED a neighborhood to anarchists who made their own ‘laws.’

It didn’t take long for that cop-free social experiment to devolve into chaos, with shootings, drug and alcohol abuse, theft, vandalism, and street brawls a regular occurrence. Seattle Police easily cleared out the Seattle autonomous zone on July 1, 2020, after several weeks of violent anarchy.

City officials cleared the blockade in Minneapolis early Friday to ensure fire and medical access, leaving a memorial of candles and flowers intact.

Authorities noted that residents who live in the area had also raised concerns about neighborhood access.

“Safety has to come first—every second matters when lives are on the line,” said Interim Chief Melanie Rucker, Minneapolis Fire Department. “Just up the street from this location, our crews were actively fighting a three-alarm fire on Monday night. When streets are blocked, it slows our response, limits access to critical resources and puts both residents and emergency responders at risk.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 15:10

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Watch: New Footage Shows Three Minutes Before Minneapolis ICE-Involved Shooting

Zero Hedge -

Watch: New Footage Shows Three Minutes Before Minneapolis ICE-Involved Shooting

Update (1410ET):

Additional footage has surfaced, apparently from a nearby resident, showing at least three minutes leading up to the ICE-involved shooting in Minneapolis of a left-wing activist who was blocking traffic in an attempt to impede federal agents during a deportation operation.

The internet has been a battleground of competing narratives, fighting over which will be the consensus, in which left-leaning corporate media outlets and Democrats say the woman shot and killed did nothing wrong, while the White House and right-leaning outlets have said she was part of "ICE Watch" and part a pressure campaign against ICE.

The Trump administration has sprung into action over the last few days in an attempt to control the narrative and ensure Democrats don't win this narrative fight. Maybe that's because if Democrats succeed, it is clear the party wants a repeat of 'George Floyd 2.0' riots.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on X,

Remember when the media called Abrego Garcia an innocent "Maryland Man," when he was actually an illegal alien, human trafficker, wife beater, and gang member? Minnesota is a different case, but the legacy media is running the same playbook. This woman was not "an innocent mother dropping off her child at school." She was a leftist insurrectionist who was purposefully and illegally obstructing law enforcement operations. More evidence here:

"The media suppresses this footage because the truth destroys their narrative. They require your ignorance to maintain control. This is psychological warfare disguised as journalism," one X user stated

*   *   * 

There are competing narratives about Wednesday’s ICE-involved shooting in Minneapolis. Some left-leaning corporate outlets focused on the fact that a woman was shot and killed by an ICE agent during a federal enforcement deportation operation, while other media, like the New York Post, highlighted that the woman, identified as 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good, was part of a left-wing group "Ice Watch" that mounted pressure campaigns on ICE agents on the ground.

Put aside all those viral videos on X; now Alpha News has obtained cellphone footage from what appears to be one of the ICE agents, and it provides a completely new perspective on what happened and why the ICE agent felt threatened enough to fire several shots at Good, killing the activist.

The NYPost reported late Thursday night that Good was an anti-ICE "warrior" and part of a network of left-wing activists who worked to "document and resist" ICE operations in Minnesota.

The video from an ICE agent appears to confirm that Good and another individual were obstructing federal agents in the middle of the street.

Vice President JD Vance commented on Alpha News' report, saying, "What the press has done in lying about this innocent law enforcement officer is disgusting. You should all be ashamed of yourselves." 

*This is a developing story.... Check back for more updates.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 14:10

USDA Suspends All Payments To Minnesota's Food Programs Over Suspected Fraud

Zero Hedge -

USDA Suspends All Payments To Minnesota's Food Programs Over Suspected Fraud

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) suspended payments for all federal food programs in Minnesota and Minneapolis Friday over alleged fraud and abuse of federal funds statewide.

“Enough is enough!” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins posted on X, announcing the suspension. “The Trump administration has uncovered massive fraud in Minnesota and Minneapolis—billions siphoned off by fraudsters. And those in charge have zero plan to fix it.”

The agency plans to suspend all payments of federal financial awards to the state and city—totalling about $130 million—until state and local officials provide documentation detailing expenditures and transactions for the past year, Rollins said.

More than 440,000 people—about one in 13 residents—receive monthly assistance from the federally funded Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), according to the Minnesota Department of Children, Youth, and Families.

SNAP uses around three-fourths of the federal funding for food-related programs and about 7 percent of all federal funding for the state, the agency reported.

In all, Minnesota received an estimated $2.05 billion in federal funds for 52 food-related programs in 2025, according to the state. The top five programs were SNAP; Women, Infants, and Children Supplemental Nutrition Program (WIC); school lunches; school breakfasts; and the child and adult care food program.

According to Rollins, Gov. Tim Walz’s administration did not provide the USDA information about SNAP participants that would prevent continuing fraud. The state also sued the USDA in December 2025 to block the agency’s directive to recertify the state’s SNAP recipients.

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison sued the Trump administration after the USDA demanded it recertify 100,000 households that receive SNAP benefits with in-person interviews by Jan. 15 to verify if they were eligible for the program.

Ellison argued in the lawsuit that the USDA’s demand violated several aspects of federal law.

As part of Friday’s notice, Rollins notified state and city officials they would have to provide the USDA with payment justifications for all federal dollar expenditures from Jan. 20, 2025, to the present.

All transactions on funding awards to the state and city would require the same payment justifications, according to Rollins.

Federal investigators from multiple branches of the Trump administration have focused on Minnesota amid allegations of fraud in the state’s federal child care, day care, Small Business Administration, housing, food, and other social services programs.

The USDA’s funding pause is the latest measure taken by the administration in the past two weeks as officials widen the scope of investigations.

“While the full extent of fraud in Minnesota is not yet known, it is clear that, under your leadership—or lack thereof—fraudsters can take advantage of federal funds and the American taxpayer with impunity,” Rollins said in her notice. “This necessitates federal action to protect taxpayer dollars until adequate safeguards can be established.”

Walz’s office, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey’s office, and the Minneapolis Department of Children, Youth, and Families did not immediately return requests for comment about the announcement.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/10/2026 - 14:00

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