Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Authored by Alasdair Macleod via VonGreyerz.gold,
With signs of economic stagnation hard to ignore, politicians, economists, and even central bankers talk about the necessity for economic growth. Not only are they displaying economic ignorance, but by chasing something that is not a measure of production, they are bound to fail in their objectives.
The consequences for us all end in a crisis of reality. The errors of economic and monetary management by modern governments result in a credit crisis, which ultimately destroys their currencies. The signs that such a crisis is descending upon us are growing.
This article focuses on the delusions and destruction by macroeconomics: its principle objective is demonstrated to be an egregious error: to achieve economic growth. Being the sum of all recorded qualifying transactions over a period usually of a year, the measure of GDP is not of output, but of credit deployed in the economy. The error is to assume that all credit is deployed productively.
Credit recorded in GDP finances consumption, production (including investment), and government spending. Only credit for production and investment in it leads to price stability. But US industrial production is lower than in 2008, when on the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis’s total index, it was 102.38 compared with 101.27 last:
Separately, FRED shows that industrial investment increased by a paltry $100 billion since 2008.
Credit expansion to finance production, particularly of goods, is non-inflationary because it is employed to make goods better, cheaper and more relevant to evolving consumer desires. And if credit funding goods production and investment have gone nowhere in the last seventeen years, then the increase in GDP is misleading.
Since 2008, GDP has more than doubled to about $30,000 billion. With the exception of service industries, many of which add little value, the expansion of credit funds, excess consumption and government spending. Credit expansion to finance the credit bubble is excluded from GDP, which is a separate issue.
It should now be clear that economists and politicians trumpeting growth are being misled or misleading themselves into promoting inflationary policies. The only offset is savings. If consumers save instead of spending, then consumer prices will not be driven up so much by excess credit. But here the US’s record over time is dismal:
Other than the spikes during the COVID lockdowns, when no one could spend, the long-term savings trend is down. Not only are savings down, but consumer debt is up:
Using 2008 as our base, consumer debt has doubled, while production of goods has stagnated. So not only has the personal savings rate generally declined, but the expansion of consumer debt has been a driving factor behind growth in GDP.
That leaves government spending. Governments are notoriously bad distributors of economic resources, and nowhere is this more so than reflected in GDP. Total US Government spending is about 40% of GDP, with the federal government portion being 23%. At least state and local governments’ spending is more relevant to their communities, but federal government spending is not, and that is where trouble is mounting from wasteful spending, all of which is included in GDP.
The easiest way to grow GDP is for the federal government to increase its useless and economically destructive spending, which undoubtedly encourages the political class to do so.
The deflator mythStarting with nominal GDP, econometricians point out that it should be deflated for inflation. If nominal GDP is shown to grow by 5%, than an inflation rate of 2% reduces that to real growth of 3%. The deflator usually used is the consumer price index.
The temptation to bolster real GDP growth by tinkering with the CPI is irresistible. Various methods are used to achieve this outcome. The result is that the current US inflation rate is calculated by the Bureau of Labour Statistics to be 3%, while John Williams of Shadowstats, who uses the original 1980 basis of calculation, computes it as 12%. Taking nominal GDP growth currently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office of 4.5%, this changes “real” GDP growth from 1.5% to minus 7.5%.
Imagine the furore if that was admitted! But we can’t even believe this more realistic presentation of the contraction of the value of total credit deployed in the economy (for that is what it is), because in theory there is a general level of prices, but in practice, no such thing exists. Its construction is therefore purely subjective and can say anything a government statistician wants. Hence, the difference between Shadowstats’ 1980 basis and subsequent revisions.
Consequently, the idea that GDP growth, nominal or real, represents the economic progress we all desire gets even further away from the truth. Instead, we can explain how the real economy is being suppressed by statistical misrepresentation, despite GDP headlines.
The debt trapIf there is one thing GDP is genuinely useful for, it gives a nation’s lenders a basis for judging its creditworthiness. Put simply, if national debt is growing faster than its tax base — roughly measured by the growth in GDP — then the economy is in a debt trap. However, if we are realistic about the distortions in the numbers, then many of the G7 nations are already there.
The reason that debt traps are yet to be properly recognised by markets is that they have been captured by governments themselves. The entire macroeconomic myth, coupled with regulatory oversight, have engendered complacency, which eventually will be shattered.
It happened in Britain the last time it had a far-left government. In 1976, sterling began to fall, and the IMF were called in to stabilise government finances. Inflation the previous year had hit 25% and bond yields had soared to over 16%. The problem was that without the IMF forcing the UK government to cut spending and raise taxes to generate a budget surplus, the dynamics of the debt trap would have driven gilt yields higher still.
An understanding that GDP represents credit and not economic progress, and that most of its deployment is inflationary, tells us that the dollar and other major currencies already face debt traps. That is why central bankers in the know are selling currencies and buying gold.
ConclusionInvestors should be aware that the government statistics upon which they rely for guidance are thoroughly misleading. Nowhere is this truer than in GDP, the quicksand upon which macroeconomics is built. Distortion of the facts compounds distortions of the past. This is why the entire basis of economic analysis is misleading and is bound to end up in a general economic and credit crisis when reality returns.
For this reason, individuals should follow the actions of central banks and protect themselves from a looming credit crisis. That can only be done by getting out of credit and into real money without counterparty risk, which is only physical gold.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 17:40Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
As California Governor Gavin Newsom gears up to run for president, what in the world will he run on?
Californians know that Newsom will not boast, “I will do for America what I have done to California!”
Why not?
Count the reasons.
California’s astronomical gas prices and taxes remain the highest in the continental U.S.
Ditto the state’s trifecta of the highest electricity rates, the costliest home prices, and the fourth-highest home insurance costs.
California has the largest unfunded liability debt in the nation, approaching $270 billion.
The budget deficit each year usually ranges from $15 to $70 billion.
Such profligate spending and deficits explain why the state also has the highest income taxes and state sales tax rates in the nation.
Just 1% of California households pay 50% of the state income tax. And the fleeced are leaving in droves.
Newsom recently boasted that he extended Medi-Cal health insurance to thousands more illegal aliens.
So, no wonder Newsom next begged for a nearly $3 billion Medi-Cal federal bailout.
Half of the state’s 41 million residents are now on Medi-Cal. Some 50 percent of all births are Medi-Cal-provided—and growing.
California has a lot of other firsts among the 50 states:
The largest population of illegal aliens.
The largest number of homeless people.
The largest number of people fleeing a state.
The largest number (11 million) and percentage (27%) of foreign-born residents.
The largest number of people living in poverty.
The highest food prices in the continental U.S.
The state’s infrastructure is usually rated near the bottom.
California ranks among the five worst states in per capita violent crime.
Here are a few other observations about the current disaster that is Newsom’s California.
One, California is a naturally wealthy state. It is the third largest by area. It ranks seventh in the nation in oil reserves. No nation has more agricultural production or forested land acreage. So it’s hard to bankrupt California, but Newsom has managed.
Two, under prior governors Pat Brown, Ronald Reagan, George Deukmejian, and Pete Wilson, California used to be the best-run state in the country.
California once produced more oil than any other state except Texas.
Its now-moribund timber industry once used to be the third largest in the nation.
And its currently ossified mining and mineral industries were once among the top ten producers in the country.
Three, no state politician over the last three decades has been more responsible for California’s decline than Gavin Newsom: six years as governor, eight years as lieutenant governor, seven years as mayor of San Francisco, and seven years on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.
Four, California chose decline. In the last thirty years, it drove out somewhere between 18 and 20 million affluent and middle-class state residents, the largest state exodus in U.S. history.
Its open border welcomed in an influx of over 10 million illegal aliens.
Meanwhile, Silicon Valley’s $11 trillion in market capitalization created the wealthiest and the most left-wing out-of-touch elite in the United States.
The result was a medieval state of a few million elites, a mass of poor people, and a vanishing middle class.
Five, such influxes and exoduses, along with gerrymandering, have ensured a one-party state. There are no Republican statewide officeholders.
Democrats control all branches of government. Only 17% of its congressional delegation is Republican. So the Left proudly owns what California has become.
What, then, will Newsom run on?
Certainly not high-speed rail—17 years, $15 billion, and not a foot of track laid.
Certainly not a $500-million exploding solar battery plant.
Certainly not illegally issuing 17,000 commercial truck driver’s licenses to non-resident illegal aliens with little or no English competency.
Certainly not the horrific but preventable Pacific Palisades fire.
And certainly not a now-closed $2-billion desert solar plant boondoggle.
Instead, Newsom will continue his he-man threats to Trump, like, “We’re going to punch this bully in the mouth.”
But will such bluster lower the state’s gas and power prices or reduce its sky-high taxes?
On social media and in podcasts, Newsom will continue his adolescent threats to federal officials like Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem while serving up his adolescent potty-mouth smears (e.g., “son of a b***h,” “god-d**n,” “f**k,” etc.).
But that profanity will not lower crime or house prices.
In other words, in the Democrat primaries, Newsom will try to out-crazy the violence, profanity, and extremism of the now-crazy Democrat socialists.
Newsom will rant nonstop about the evil Trump, but neither offer a word nor do a thing about his own responsibility for the collapse of a once great state.
Newsom will lecture on “affordability” without mentioning that he has created the most unaffordable state in the nation.
Will all this gobbledygook work?
It did in New York.
So, who knows?
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 17:00Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com, alleging that the platforms are conducting unlicensed online gambling there.
“Only licensed entities may offer sports wagering in the state of Connecticut,” DCP commissioner Bryan T. Cafferelli said in a statement on Wednesday.
“None of these entities possess a license to offer wagering in our state, and even if they did, their contacts violate numerous other state laws and policies, including offering wagers to individuals under the age of 21.”
DCP Gaming Director Kris Gilman accused the platforms of “deceptively advertising that their services are legal,” adding that they operate outside of the state’s regulatory environment, “posing a serious risk to consumers who may not realize that wagers placed on these illegal platforms offer no protections for their money or information.”
As CoinTelegraph's Martin Young details below, prediction markets have come under legal scrutiny in several US states, as the use of these platforms has skyrocketed this year and attracted billions of dollars in investment for allowing users to bet on the outcome of a variety of events.
Prediction markets saw huge volumes in November. Source: Token Terminal
Kalshi fires back in courtA Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph that it is “a regulated, nationwide exchange for real-world events, and it is subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction.
“It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are confident in our legal arguments and have filed suit in federal court,” Kalshi added.
In a complaint filed on Wednesday against the DCP, Kalshi claimed that “Connecticut’s attempt to regulate Kalshi intrudes upon the federal regulatory framework that Congress established for regulating derivatives on designated exchanges.”
[ZH: Kalshi is perhaps the most exposed in this suit given their massive push into sports predictions...]
It added that its platform was subject to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “exclusive jurisdiction” and its sports event contracts “are lawful under federal law.”
“As we’ve previously shared, Robinhood’s event contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC and offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a CFTC-registered entity, allowing retail customers to access prediction markets in a safe, compliant, and regulated manner,” a Robinhood spokesperson told Cointelegraph.
Crypto.com did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In its statement, Connecticut’s DCP said that prediction market platforms pose serious risks to consumers because they lack the required technical standards and security protections for financial and personal data.
Source: Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection
The agency claimed that such platforms also lack integrity controls to prevent insider betting or manipulation, operate without regulatory oversight of their payout rules, advertise to self-excluded gamblers and on college campuses, and permit betting on events with known outcomes, thereby giving insiders unfair advantages.
Only three platforms are legally licensed for sports wagering in Connecticut: DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, all of which require users to be at least 21 years old.
Kalshi under fire in at least 10 US statesConnecticut is not the only state to take a hard stance on prediction platforms; regulators in two neighboring states have previously taken action.
New York sent a cease and desist to Kalshi in late October, and the company responded on Oct. 27 by suing the state. Meanwhile, the Massachusetts state attorney general sued Kalshi in the state court in September.
Kalshi also previously received cease and desist orders from Arizona, Illinois, Montana and Ohio this year, and it remains embroiled in ongoing litigation in New Jersey, Maryland and Nevada, reported Bookies.
Kalshi announced this week that it has closed a $1 billion funding round at a valuation of $11 billion, after seeing its best-ever monthly volume in November.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 16:40George Bernard Shaw famously observed that “England and America are two countries separated by the same language.” It appears, however, that this chasm has finally been overcome by the common dialect of rage. The new word of the year was announced this week by the Oxford University Press and it is tragically apt: “rage bait.”
First used in 2002, the new word is defined as “online content deliberately designed to elicit anger or outrage by being frustrating, provocative, or offensive, typically posted in order to increase traffic to or engagement with a particular web page or social media content.”
The choice is certainly apropos of what I called in my recent book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” Rage is a curious emotion. It is the ultimate release. It allows you to do things and say things that you would not otherwise do or say. That is why it is addictive and contagious.
Rage, however, can also be a license not just to rave but to regulate.
The key to rage is that it is entirely subjective and relative. If you agree with a speaker, it is righteous. If you disagree, it is dangerous.
That relativism was evident in Oxford’s own press release on the selection of the word.
Casper Grathwohl, President of Oxford Languages, associated the term with “manipulation tactics we can be drawn into online.”
He slammed “internet culture” for “hijacking and influencing our emotions.”
Grathwohl warned that it is an extension of what is called “rage-farming… to manipulate reactions and to build anger and engagement over time by seeding content with rage bait, particularly in the form of deliberate misinformation of conspiracy theory-based material.”
If you listen carefully, you can almost hear the “here, here” grunts of the British censors.
Great Britain and other European countries have eviscerated free speech through criminalization and regulation for decades. The Internet is a particular obsession of the anti-free speech movement. The greatest single invention since the printing press, the Internet is a threat to countries and groups that want to control speech.
The new scourge is hidden “algorithms” that elevate certain postings. While liberals like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) have called for social media companies to use algorithms to encourage people to choose better books, the left accuses these companies of fueling divisions but creating forums for views that it considers “disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation.”
The difficulty is distinguishing content-based bias in algorithms (which is rightfully condemned) from systems that simply elevate more popular posts. If social media is merely favoring more popular speech, the problem with critics is not with the bait but their own failure to attract nibbles from those surfing the web.
The fact is that these companies profit from traffic and favor posts that customers are most interested in reading. That drives activists to distraction because they believe their views are healthier and superior for citizens to discuss.
These are really calls for “enlightened algorithms” to favor truth, as defined by governments and supporting experts. That is not “hijacking” but liberating; it is not “rage bait” but reasoned debate. It is that easy.
Any disliked image or view can be deemed rage bait. The same week that Oxford was choosing rage bait, there was another story of how free speech is in a free fall in the United Kingdom.
Jon Richelieu-Booth told the Yorkshire Post that he was arrested for posting a picture on the networking site LinkedIn of himself holding a shotgun at a friend’s homestead in Florida. West Yorkshire Police allegedly warned him about the post and told him to be “careful” about what he says online and “how it makes people feel.” He was later arrested and spent months in the criminal justice system before the case was dropped.
It is an all-too-familiar story for those of us who have documented the decline of free speech in the UK.
The British police have arrested people for silently praying in public and a man was convicted for “toxic ideologies,” literal thought crimes.
The Times of London reported that police are making around 12,000 arrests per year over online posts.
Rage rhetoric has been with us since humans first learned to speak. The danger of rage rhetoric is rarely the rhetoric itself. It is the use of rage rhetoric by the government and others to silence citizens.
It is easy to say that certain postings are “bait” for rage. It is more difficult to agree on what rage is. While the left will denounce statements of Donald Trump as rage bait, they rarely object to such rhetoric from Hillary Clinton or Jasmine Crockett. The same is often true on the right. Each side views its own postings as reasoned debate and the other side’s as rage bait.
No one is being “hijacked” on the Internet. They are choosing their sources, and many create siloes or echo chambers. It is a common feature of “an age of rage.”
Oxford is clearly correct in the selection of a word that captures the age. However, it also captures the use of rage to rationalize censorship by treating viewpoints as harmful lures for the unsuspecting, unwashed masses. That desire to regulate speech is also often driven by rage, but it is embraced as reason.
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of the best-selling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 16:20The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 29 November. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
23-29 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):
• Occupancy: 49.8% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$141.31 (+0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$70.42 (-0.7%)
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
The U.S. State Department announced on Dec. 3 that it will add an online presence review to the vetting requirements for all H-1B visa applicants and their dependents starting Dec. 15.
H-1B visa applicants and their dependents will have to make their social media profiles public as of Dec. 15, according to the department. Student visa and exchange visitor applicants are already subject to this review.
The screening requirement, the department said, is part of an effort to safeguard Americans and national interests while ensuring that “all applicants credibly establish their eligibility for the visa sought.”
“Every visa adjudication is a national security decision,” the department stated in its announcement. “A U.S. visa is a privilege, not a right.”
The department did not specify what criteria will be used to screen the online activity of H-1B visa applicants and their dependents. The Epoch Times reached out to the department for further details, but the request was not immediately returned.
The H-1B visa program allows U.S. companies to temporarily employ foreign workers for jobs that require “the theoretical and practical application of a body of specialized knowledge and a bachelor’s degree or the equivalent in the specific specialty.”
On Sept. 19, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation introducing a one-time $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applications in a bid to curb the abuse of the visa program, saying it has been exploited by companies to replace American workers “with lower-paid, lower-skilled labor.”
Trump told Fox News on Nov. 11 that his administration aims to strike a balance between stricter immigration controls and maintaining employers’ access to the labor they need, particularly in high-skill industries facing shortages of qualified candidates.
He cited a recent immigration enforcement operation at a South Korean-owned battery plant in Georgia to illustrate his point that some industries require highly specialized expertise.
“In Georgia, they raided because they wanted illegal immigrants out,” Trump said. “They had people from South Korea that make batteries all their lives. You know, making batteries [is] very complicated. It’s not an easy thing, and very dangerous. A lot of explosions, a lot of problems.”
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Sept. 24 proposed further changes to the H-1B visa selection process to prioritize higher-skilled and higher-paid foreign workers.
The proposed policy seeks to replace the current random selection process for allocating H-1B visa registrations with a weighted system when annual demands for the visas exceed the 85,000 statutory limit.
DHS said the change would “better serve the Congressional intent” for the H-1B program while still allowing employers to hire H-1B workers at all wage levels.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 15:45The future almost never arrives in straight lines. Whether its’ technology, culture, or politics, changes and evolution often come slowly from year to year. But then, suddenly, there is a lurch.
Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions live in those lurches. They are not a house view or a forecast; they are low-probability, high-impact thought experiments designed to stretch the imagination and sharpen debate about what could happen if things leap forward in unexpected ways.
Simply put, they're an out-of-the-box brainstorming on the kinds of crazy things that might just come true.
Let’s take a wandering tour of the eight outrageous developments that just could await in 2025.
First, in tech, take cryptography and imagine what happens if Q-Day suddenly arrives in 2026, the day that quantum machines can crack yesterday’s digital locks effortlessly.
Crypto collapses; gold screams to five figures; every bank and government scrambles to rebuild trust in a post-quantum security stack.
Second, in the same year, markets discover that sudden culture shifts can move macro.
A single wedding – Swift and Kelce – tips a generation out of doomscrolling and into backyards, marriages, and baby carriages. Fertility and household formation booms. Economists coin a new phrase with a smile: the Swiftie Put.
Third, in politics, the aggravated partisanship of recent years is suddenly upended after the ugly partisan shenanigans in the U.S. midterm elections shock the silent majority of independents into demanding reform and a strengthening of democratic institutions.
Trump stays Trump, but America begins to move on.
Fourth, in medicine, GLP-1 obesity drugs in pill-form transform human and even pet health.
Waistlines shrink, lifespans stretch, and all food companies race to reinvent themselves for a lighter world.
Fifth, above the atmosphere, capital market discovers their next frontier. A SpaceX IPO valuation clears a trillion dollars and turns “space economy” from slogan to spreadsheet.
Orbital manufacturing and lunar projects migrate from science fiction to investment committee.
Sixth, back on Earth, an AI model becomes a Fortune 500 CEO...
...executing without ego and forcing boards to consider the unthinkable: a human-machine partnership at the top.
Seventh, geopolitics, never far from the tape in recent years, tests the monetary order as Beijing rolls out a gold-linked offshore yuan for redenomination of its trade.
The dollar remains a king, but not the king.
Finally, eighth, while carefully constructed and prompted AI may help run a company, beneath the buzzwords, a humbling reckoning unfolds: dumb AI, or poorly governed agents and “agentic” automations, misfire en masse...
...generating a trillion-dollar cleanup and a new profession of “AI janitors” to disinfect the codebase of modern life.
Sure, the next shocks may come from where we are staring the hardest, like in AI or in geopolitics. But the direction things might take in these areas, not to mention the fallout, are certainly not in the price. Elsewhere, quantum may remain pie-in-the-sky, or it could disrupt profoundly. And geopolitics and cultural revolutions can prove the most jarring of all, especially when our societies suffer from dire inequality.
Again, Saxo’s aim with its yearly set of Outrageous Predictions is not to predict the year ahead, but to widen the aperture: to ask what breaks, what booms, and what blindsides when the world lurches. If these scenarios make you argue, it’s all better. The debate will help prepare you for these and any other surprises that might lie ahead.
Read the full detailed breakdown of all eight 'outrageous predictions' here...
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 15:25Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
US Central Command announced on Wednesday that it was launching the US military's "first one-way-attack drone squadron based in the Middle East" as President Trump’s Department of War continues to get further entrenched in the region.
"CENTCOM launched Task Force Scorpion Strike (TFSS) four months after Secretary of War Pete Hegseth directed acceleration of the acquisition and fielding of affordable drone technology," CENTCOM said.
Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drones are positioned on the tarmac at a base in CENTCOM area of operations.
Hegseth has announced a program known as "Drone Dominance" that will involve spending $1 billion to acquire about 300,000 units over the next three years.
"Drone dominance is a billion-dollar program funded by President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill," the US War Chief said on Tuesday.
CENTCOM said that it has already "formed a squadron of Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drones" and released photos of drones in its press release.
"LUCAS drones deployed by CENTCOM have an extensive range and are designed to operate autonomously. They can be launched with different mechanisms to include catapults, rocket-assisted takeoff, and mobile ground and vehicle systems," the command said.
On Monday, CENTCOM announced that it had opened a new bilateral command post in Bahrain, the headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet.
"The new facility will be staffed by forces from the United States and Bahrain and serve as a hub for integrated air defense planning, coordination, and operations. This is CENTCOM’s second bilateral air defense command post in the region," CENTCOM said.
LUCAS drones are manufactured by Arizona based SpektreWorks. Source: SpektreWorks
The Trump administration recently approved a $445 million weapons deal for Bahrain to sustain its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. The administration has been working to build its military alliances with Gulf Arab states and has also approved $1 billion in arms deals for Saudi Arabia to support Riyadh’s US-made helicopters and provide aviation training for Saudi pilots, a step seen as a precursor to an F-35 sale.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 15:05Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Virginia Sen. Mark Warner has jumped aboard the Democrat bandwagon of undermining President Trump, declaring on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that “the uniformed military may help save us from this president.”
The remark, captured in a clip shared widely on X, comes as leftists ramp up efforts to sow chaos in the ranks, painting Trump as a threat to the Constitution while ignoring their own history of politicizing the military.
Watch:
Sen. Mark Warner: "I think, in many ways, the uniformed military may help save us from this President."
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) December 3, 2025
They're now just openly calling for military coups against President Trump. pic.twitter.com/JUHiWK0y1o
Warner made the inflammatory statement while discussing concerns over Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and an upcoming briefing by Admiral Bradley.
“I’m going to want to get answers on what did Pete Hegseth order? Why haven’t we seen the whole unedited video if there’s nothing inappropriate here? You could have cleared this up without the admiral coming in. He’s got a great reputation, I respect him. I want to get the truth. And I’m not sure we’ve had the truth from Hegseth yet,” Warner said.
He then escalated, accusing the Trump administration of “unprecedented disrespect” toward the military. “Remember, this is an administration that has treated the uniformed military with unprecedented disrespect when they were all brought to get a pep rally in front of Hegseth and Trump. This is an administration that’s fired, you know, uniform generals from the head of the NSA, the head of the Defense Intelligence agency,” Warner claimed.
Wrapping up his rant, Warner added, “I think in many ways, the uniformed military may help save us from this president and his lame people like Hegseth, because I think their commitment is to the Constitution and obviously not to Trump. I expect Bradley to adhere to that.”
Fresh reporting from The New York Times has dismantled the overblown narrative pushed by The Washington Post about illegal strikes on a suspected drug boat.
According to five U.S. officials familiar with the matter, Hegseth did authorize a Sept. 2 strike intended “to kill the people on the boat, destroy the vessel, and eliminate its drug cargo.” However, his directive “did not specifically address what to do if a first missile failed to fully accomplish these goals, and it was not based on surveillance showing at least two survivors after the initial blast.”
This directly undercuts WaPo’s sensational claim that Hegseth issued a blanket “kill everybody” order, with officials clarifying the action was to neutralize the threat, not hunt down survivors post-attack.
BREAKING – Pete Hegseth and Admiral Bradley are now being encouraged to pursue defamation charges against the Washington Post after the NYT revealed it blatantly lied about them ordering survivors to be killed, pushing Democrats to slander them as committing “war crimes.” pic.twitter.com/288gGEYkpe
— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) December 2, 2025
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt reinforced that Hegseth simply “authorized Adm. Frank M. Bradley to conduct kinetic strikes, ensuring the boat was destroyed and the threat eliminated,” exposing the left’s smear campaign as another desperate hit job.
The clip of Senator Warner quickly drew backlash for promoting what critics call open sedition.
They are making these comments in greater numbers, partly because they believe that an overwhelming chorus of voices pushing the same message will normalize the calls and remove any consequences for seditious behavior and calls to break the chain of command.
— 21c Global Inclusion and Development Studies (@21cDevelopment) December 3, 2025
They talk about democracy then try to overthrow elected leaders.
— AMIRAN ?? (@Amiran_Zizovi) December 3, 2025
So warner is calling for a military coup. Uhh that seems a bit worse than trespassing in the capital building?
— paul (@Paulroadglide) December 3, 2025
That sounds a lot like treason. pic.twitter.com/xp9vDBfogl
— ChurchsSermons (@churchs_sermons) December 3, 2025
Warner’s comments align with a broader Democrat push to erode trust in Trump’s leadership of the armed forces. Just last week, we covered Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly doubling down on similar rhetoric during appearances on Jimmy Kimmel and Rachel Maddow’s shows.
Kelly, part of the so-called “Seditious Six” – a group of Democrat lawmakers who released a video urging troops to ignore “illegal orders” from Trump – insisted he’s “not backing down” despite a Department of Defense probe into his actions.
In that video, the six Democrats, including Kelly, warned servicemembers to prioritize the law over commands from the president, fueling accusations of inciting mutiny.
Kelly told Kimmel, “You can’t keep track of this guy and what he says. I’ll tell you this though, I’m not backing down. We said something very simple. Members of the military need to follow the law. We wanted to say that we have their backs. His response, kill them.”
He continued, “My oath and every member of the military took is loyalty to the Constitution, not to a person. He is trying to get some fear out there, and fear can be contagious, but what also can be contagious is courage and patriotism.”
Kelly and his seditious friends have all failed to name a single “illegal order” from Trump, reducing the stunt to empty fearmongering. On Maddow’s show, he even conceded Trump has “only given ‘lawful’ orders.”
Former CIA agents have flagged the Democrats’ video as a “handler”-driven op straight from the CIA playbook. Air Force vet Buzz Patterson labeled it “treasonous and seditious,” calling for prosecutions.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Kelly of “intimidating” 1.3 million troops, warning, “You can’t have a functioning military if there is disorder and chaos within the ranks… They can’t identify ‘illegal’ orders because there ARE NO illegal orders!”
Conservatives linked the rhetoric to the tragic D.C. ambush where an Afghan migrant killed U.S. Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom and wounded U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe. Patterson raged, “What they did was treasonous and seditious… They are circumventing the chain of command.” Leavitt added, “These officials are trying to sow chaos and distrust, which is a very dangerous thing to do within the military’s rank.”
The Pentagon’s review into Kelly signals potential accountability, but with Warner now amplifying the message, the push to politicize the military shows no signs of stopping. This isn’t about protecting the Constitution – it’s a desperate bid to sabotage Trump before he drains the swamp.
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Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 14:25President Donald Trump, intrigued by the tiny “kei” cars he saw in Japan, announced plans to allow their production and sale in the US, according to Bloomberg. These ultra-compact vehicles are currently barred from US manufacturing because they don’t meet federal standards.
“They’re very small, they’re really cute, and I said ‘How would that do in this country?’” Trump said while revealing plans to loosen Biden-era fuel efficiency rules. He added that “we’re gonna approve those cars,” and said he has instructed Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to authorize production.
Kei cars are hugely popular in Japan, making up about a third of new vehicle sales. In the US, they’ve developed a niche fanbase through a law allowing imports of models older than 25 years, but many states restrict or ban them over safety concerns about their size and speed among large American trucks and SUVs.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Tatsuo Yoshida noted that Japanese carmakers avoid the US market because “Pricing and costs don’t match,” even if interest exists. Duffy said his agency has now “cleared the deck” for automakers like Toyota to sell smaller, more efficient models in the US. Toyota declined to comment.
Bloomberg writes Trump’s newfound enthusiasm for kei cars mirrors how passenger vehicles have recently been used as leverage in US-Japan trade talks, where the idea of Japan importing more American-made vehicles helped move negotiations forward.
Ultra-compact cars have made several attempts to break into the American market before. In the 1960s and 1970s, models like the Subaru 360 and Honda N600 targeted budget-conscious drivers but struggled against tougher safety standards and American preferences for bigger, more powerful vehicles. The small-car surge briefly resurfaced after the 1970s oil crisis, but most mini-cars failed to stay profitable.
Interest returned in the 2000s with microcars like the Smart Fortwo, which attracted attention in crowded cities but remained a niche purchase due to limited performance and concerns about crash safety in a market dominated by SUVs. Trump’s policy shift could mark the first time ultra-compact vehicles receive broad regulatory support in the US, potentially giving them more than a novelty foothold.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 14:05• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.1% in October 2025.
• Price declines expanded from six of the 100 largest metros in January to 32 by October, marking the broadest softening of prices since the early 2010s.
...
This year began with a stable growth trajectory, with national price growth posting an annual increase of 3.4% in January. However, that momentum slowed steadily as the year progressed. By October, annual appreciation was a mere 1.1% annual increase—the lowest rate since early 2012.
"The housing market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant headwinds. Slowing price growth reflects a much-needed rebalancing after years of unsustainable gains. While some markets are experiencing declines, these adjustments will help restore affordability over time and make housing more accessible to a wider group of buyers,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.
This deceleration highlights the impact of higher mortgage rates earlier in the year and persistent affordability challenges. Furthermore, price growth was dampened by a notable increase in inventory. Many markets saw a surge in both existing and newly built homes, slowing rates of in-migration and weakened demand.
The robust price increases of 2022 when top metros — primarily in Florida and the Southeast — saw gains exceeding 30% has now given way to declines. At the start of 2025, only six metros — primarily in Florida — posted year-over-year drops. By October, that number surged to 32, as pricing downturns extended into Texas, California, and various states throughout the Mountain West.
emphasis added
This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,
As Minnesota anticipates more U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) action in Minnesota—a state where many Somali immigrants are accused of defrauding welfare programs—Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said the city’s law enforcement will not work with federal agents.
“Our police officers are not ICE agents; they will not cooperate with ICE agents,” Frey said at a Dec. 2 news conference.
ICE has been conducting large-scale immigration enforcement operations in a number of cities, sometimes drawing opposition from protesters and from Democratic leaders.
At the news conference, Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O‘Hara and St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter III emphasized support for law-abiding Somalis and other immigrants who hold jobs and run businesses. People who are fearful of ICE action should inform themselves about their rights, the officials said. O’Hara also said that his officers “absolutely have a duty to intervene” if people’s rights are being violated.
O‘Hara said his officers “do work with federal law enforcement literally every day around violent crime, around people smuggling fentanyl into the country, gang violence, those types of things.” However, O’Hara said, “Federal law enforcement is aware that we absolutely will have nothing to do with anything related to immigration enforcement.”
That has been true for years in the Twin Cities, which are among more than a half-dozen so-called sanctuary cities that the Justice Department has sued over policies that shield illegal immigrants.
The pending lawsuit, coupled with the new public remarks from the Twin Cities’ leaders, reflects increasing tensions between Minnesota and the federal government.
After recent publicity over massive Minnesota welfare-fraud schemes that mostly involve suspects of Somali origin, President Donald Trump announced plans to end “temporary protected status” for Somalis in the North Star State. Minnesota Democrats, including Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Gov. Tim Walz, and Attorney General Keith Ellison, have criticized the president’s actions.
At Trump’s direction, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said she investigated immigration programs in Minnesota; she reported finding that “50 percent of visa applications” and other immigration-related programs were fraudulent.
Noem, speaking during the president’s Dec. 2 Cabinet meeting, did not specify which immigrant groups were allegedly submitting false immigration applications.
During “Operation Twin Shield” earlier this year, ICE, the FBI, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) found 275 cases of suspected immigration fraud in and around Minneapolis and St. Paul, USCIS officials said, calling it a first-of-its-kind operation to detect and deter immigration fraud.
Mayors Defending Somalis Amid Fraud CasesThe two mayors, Frey and Carter, said that the entire Somali community is being unfairly targeted and wrongfully vilified over the actions of a few.
Since 2022, charges have been brought against 78 people, and dozens have been convicted or await trial in the Minnesota-based Feeding Our Future scandal, which involved a nonprofit and its affiliates falsely claiming they provided meals to needy children.
A pair of other welfare-fraud scandals emerging from the region are still developing. Altogether, the fraudulent claims amount to billions of dollars, authorities have said. The fraud was allegedly committed mostly by Somalis who sent much of the stolen money back to their homeland. The Treasury Department is investigating claims that Somalia-based terrorist group al-Shabaab took a percentage of those financial transfers.
Frey and Carter emphasized that most of the estimated 80,000 Somalis living in Minnesota are U.S. citizens. Seventy-eight percent of them live in the Twin Cities, according to Minnesota Compass, making Minneapolis home to America’s largest Somali community. Frey said he is proud of that fact.
On Dec. 3, the day after the Minnesota news conference, a reporter asked Trump to react to Frey’s expression of pride in the Somali community. The president criticized Frey’s comments, adding that Somalis “have taken billions of dollars out of our country” and hail from a crime-ridden nation.
Trump has also stated that Somalis who complain about America are unwanted.
The Epoch Times sought a comment from Frey, who did not immediately respond.
Frey criticized Trump’s stance at the news conference.
“He’s wrong, and we want them here,” Frey said. “Somali people have been an extraordinary benefit ... They have started businesses and created jobs. They have added to the cultural fabric of what Minneapolis is. They were welcoming to me when I first came out to Minneapolis.”
‘Zero Tolerance’ for Impeding ICEBoth mayors expressed concern that ICE will make mistakes and snare lawful Somali American citizens once the illegal-immigrant dragnet hits the Twin Cities.
In response to the comments from the Twin Cities’ officials, border czar Tom Homan said, “We’re going to enforce the law, without apology.”
Homan, in a Dec. 2 interview with Fox News, said Noem’s findings and the welfare-fraud crimes are making the Twin Cities a higher priority for ICE.
He didn’t say when increased enforcement operations might begin, or how many agents might be sent there. Homan said he has told police in other sanctuary cities that it is their duty to make their communities safer—and that communities do become safer after ICE removes criminal illegal immigrants and legal immigrants who commit deportable offenses. Homan said it was “shameful” for local law enforcement not to partner with ICE to achieve that common goal.
He urged non-cooperative police to “stand aside” and allow ICE to operate. Otherwise, the Justice Department will show “zero tolerance” and will prosecute anyone who impedes ICE.
O'Hara, the police chief, said his officers stay out of immigration issues.
“We don’t provide information to federal immigration authorities; we don’t ask people about their immigration status,” he said at the news conference.
Those actions align with a city ordinance that forbids city employees from asking people about their citizenship or immigration status. The local law also prohibits city workers from using “any knowledge of [a resident’s] status to enforce immigration laws,” the Minneapolis government website states.
Within days, Minneapolis officers will be receiving updated guidance for handling immigration-related matters, the police chief said, incorporating “feedback from community and community-based organizations.”
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 13:05Jensen "sign my tit" Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA and the man picking and shoveling the AI boom, was recently on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast discussing a wide range of topics, when he gave the nuclear sector the ultimate tailwind: the AI revolution needs small modular reactors (SMRs), something we have been saying for over a year.
When the conversation turned to energy, and particularly new nuclear power, Huang spoke about the immense and growing power demands of AI data centers, which he dubbed as "gigawatt factories", and echoed what we just said, namely that that these power needs cannot be integrated into the existing public grid without risking instability and soaring power prices...
To prevent skyrocketing electric bills, every state has to follow the Texas example: each data center must have its own "behind the meter" onsite power generation.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025
“We believe data centers should pay for the full cost of their power,” Dominion Energy spokesperson Aaron Ruby… https://t.co/0u1owTeAs8 pic.twitter.com/8W421s3rzV
... and should instead remain "behind the meter", with data centers using dedicated or off-grid power generators - such as SMRs - necessary for the continued growth of AI.
As a result, Jensen sees "a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors in the next six or seven years"
Rogan: By small, like how big are you talking about?
Huang: Hundreds of megawatts.
Rogan: Okay. And that these will be local to whatever specific company they have.
Huang: That's right. Will all be power generators.
Reactors such as those currently being built by Nano Nuclear and Oklo. No wonder their stocks are soaring today.
Here is the exchange:
JR-"Currently that is a big bottleneck right, it's energy?
— NANO Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) (@nano_nuclear) December 3, 2025
JH-It is The Bottleneck...The next 6-7 years I think your going to see a whole bunch of small nuclear reactors
JR- probably the smartest way to do it
JH-It takes the burn off the grid" $NVDA $NNE pic.twitter.com/tUh1BxhPXl
Of course, we have been pounding the table on modular nuclear reactors as the only real solution to the data center power drain for nearly two years, focusing on the more realistic options in recent weeks, and highlighted this very scenario just a few days ago, when the Department of Energy said it was assisting the Tennessee Valley Authority and Holtec International with the development and deployment of 300 MW small reactors in the 2030s, all small but critical initial steps in the rollout of small modular reactors.
There was also a significant development from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission when they announced the completion of their final safety evaluation for the construction permit application for Bill Gates’ sodium reactor project in Wyoming. This was the last stage of reactor developer TerraPower’s construction permit review for their 345 MW reactor, and they now expect to have the construction license in hand early next year. Commercial operations are targeted for 2031.
Anyway, back to the podcast where, to the surprise of none of our readers, it took only 5 minutes of them talking to come to the topic of how dependent new AI is on the development of new energy.
Jensen went on a short run about how critical it was to the AI industry that Trump started his latest term by beating the table on new energy development:
“[Trump] came into office and the first thing that he said was ‘drill baby drill’. His point is we need energy growth. Without energy growth, we can have no industrial growth. It saved the AI industry. I got to tell you, flat out, if not for his progrowth energy policy we would not be able to build factories for AI, not be able to build chip factories, we surely won't be able to build supercomputer factories, none of that stuff would be possible without all of that. Construction jobs would be challenged, right? Electrician jobs, all of these jobs that are now flourishing would be challenged. And so I think he's got it right, we need energy growth. We want to re-industrialize the United States. We need to be back in manufacturing.”
As we recently covered in our summary of how well Europe's grand green energy transition is going, we highlighted how the availability of cheap energy is enabling the growth of the AI industry in the US. Had the US followed in the footsteps of our peers across the water, we could have been facing energy prices as much as three times higher for industrial customers.
With the U.S. taking the more productive “and” approach to renewable energy, the country has added GW of power across a range of energy varieties, including both green sources like wind and solar, and traditional sources like coal, gas, and nuclear. Then again, as we discussed yesterday, the US will need to add over 100+ GW by 2032 to maintain the AI cycle, a staggering amount of power generation.
Jensen elaborated a little bit further on the energy-AI relationship, noting that energy is “the” bottleneck with developing new AI factories:
Rogan: So currently that is a big bottleneck, right? [It] is energy.
Huang: Yeah, it is the bottleneck. The bottleneck
Because you can print money, you can't print energy.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 12:45The money is not the problem: AI is the new global arms race, and capex will eventually be funded by governments (US and China). If you want to know why gold/silver/bitcoin is soaring, it's the "debasement" to fund the AI arms race.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2025
But you can't print energy https://t.co/qwdD8QbVON
Dollar General shares jumped the most in six months following a quarterly earnings beat and an upward revision to full-year guidance, reflecting continued momentum from value-seeking, cash-strapped consumers.
Dollar General posted a strong quarter, with third-quarter EPS of $1.28, beating last year's .89 cents and coming in well above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of .94 cents. Same-store sales rose 2.5%, also ahead of BBG expectations, driven entirely by higher traffic (+2.5%) while average ticket remained flat. Gains were broad-based across consumables, seasonal, home, and apparel.
Here's a snapshot of the third quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):
EPS: $1.28 vs. $0.89 y/y, estimate $0.94
Net sales: $10.65 billion, +4.6% y/y, estimate $10.62 billion
Comparable sales: +2.5% vs. +1.3% y/y, estimate +2.47%
Gross margin: 29.9% vs. 28.8% y/y, estimate 29.5%
SG&A as % of revenue: 25.9% vs. 25.7% y/y, estimate 26.4%
Operating profit: $425.9 million, +32% y/y, estimate $328.1 million
Dollar General also lifted its FY25 outlook:
Sees comparable sales +2.5% to +2.7%, prior +2.1% to +2.6%, estimate +2.5% (Bloomberg consensus)
Sees EPS $6.30 to $6.50, prior $5.80 to $6.30, estimate $6.12
Sees net sales +4.7% to +4.9%, prior +4.3% to +4.8%
Sees capital expenditure at the low end of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, unchanged, estimate $1.39 billion
Still sees an effective tax rate of about 23.5%
In markets, DG shares surged nearly 11% - the biggest jump since early June. The stock had been down as much as 73% from its 2022 highs as high interest rates crushed lower-income consumer activity, but the rebound is now well underway. DG suddenly looks like a name to watch heading into next year.
Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane is "Buy" rated on Dollar General with a 12-month price target of $126 ...
Here's what other Wall Street analysts are saying:
Bernstein, outperform (Zhihan Ma)
This is another "strong beat and raise" from Dollar General, with gross margin outperformance (up 110bps y/y) the key driver amid shrink recovery, higher inventory markups, partly offset by LIFO charges
NOTE: "Shrink" in retail refers reduced inventory due to theft, damage or other causes of product loss before it is sold to the consumer
Ma notes that comp. sales were "entirely led by traffic growth while ticket was flat"
"We don't expect outsized comp sales growth from DG, like what Five Below reported yesterday, as DG doesn't benefit nearly as much from tariff-driven price increases or Temu's pullback," she says
For DG, she sees further gross margin recovery potential into FY26
"Jury is still out on the retail media growth potential," which she hasn't assigned any value to
Bloomberg Intelligence, Jennifer Bartashus
"Dollar General's efforts to improve operations by executing well on retail basics like clean stores, in-stock levels and sufficient labor are gaining traction with core and higher- income trade-down shoppers," though it remains to be seen whether those new customers will stick, Bartashus writes
Gains in both consumable and discretionary categories in 3Q enabled the retailer to boost annual sales and profit forecasts
Jefferies (buy), Corey Tarlowe
This is a "clean beat" on both top- and bottom-line, driven by better‑than‑expected margins and "steady traffic gains"
Boosted guidance signals "confidence in holiday execution and continued market share gains across both departments"
Inventory discipline is "notable"
"Near term, the story strengthens on operational leverage and improved cost efficiency," while longer term, "store growth and remodel productivity provide visibility into sustained EPS growth"
"The Company is raising its financial expectations for the year, primarily to reflect its outperformance in the third quarter, as well as its improved outlook for the remainder of the year, while also taking into consideration the potential for uncertainty related to consumer behavior," Dollar General wrote in a press release.
Important to note: Dollar General's customer base is primarily lower- to middle-income households that have been trapped in the K-shaped economy so far this year, still dealing with lingering woes from the Biden-Harris regime years. The third-quarter beat and rosier outlook suggest improvement within these cohorts as value-seeking consumers continue to trade down.
This previous earnings season revealed that consumers are aggressively hunting for deals:
TJ Maxx Hikes Outlook As Consumers Trade Down In Ominous Economic Signal
And there is good news for working-poor households heading into next year:
And Walmart remains the discount retailer consumers gravitate to most.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 11:25By Michael Every of Rabobank
Markets start the day mixed. Bad US ADP jobs data saw the old rule that this is bullish for rates, so stocks. By contrast, Australian household spending of 1.3% m-o-m (regardless of how many it covers) saw rate hike bets pick up, with the 3-year yield above 4% for the first time since January. This morning, China also set the daily reference rate for CNY significantly weaker than expected, underlining its rule remains that its currency goes where it wants, not markets – and it doesn’t want it too strong even as its trade surplus reaches staggering dimensions.
But the rules are changing. The FT says hedge funds warned the White House about picking the head of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, as the next Fed Chair because he “will be swayed by Trump on interest rates.” As our US strategist Philip Marey notes in his 2026 Outlook, that’s exactly what we expect to happen. Moreover, as underlined here many times before, that’s potentially just part of the new central banking rules as economic statecraft wins, and technocracy loses. Indeed, Bloomberg reports Treasury Secretary Bessent is floated to replace Hassett at the top of the NEC, double hatting like Secretary of State Rubio. ‘Move fast and break things’ comes to mind.
Likewise, Brussels floated “emergency” powers to raise €210bn from frozen Russian assets as: NATO’s head pledged it’s “ready to do what it takes” to protect Europe - when it isn’t; the Telegraph warned ‘Trump may now abandon both Russia and Ukraine’ - as Rubio will skip the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting for the first time in 20 years and send a NATO sceptic instead; and talk is of ‘Europe's race back to the draft’ as “Europe’s defence debate now centers on one blunt question: how many people can fight if they must?” – and “very few” is the clear answer.
The EC proposal is still de facto seizure of Russian assets with extra pledged protections for Belgium vs. Moscow’s retaliation and qualified majority voting under Article 122, allowing for ‘exceptional measures’ when the European economy is at risk, to block Hungarian or Slovakian vetoes. EU leaders will make a final decision on 18 December: if no deal can be struck, von der Leyen stated the EU will resort to joint debt issuance, as in Covid. Either way, rules are going to be broken, it seems.
Yesterday, Europe also broke more of its preferred free-market rules. It banned Russian LNG by end-2026 and pipeline gas by September 2027, with oil floated by end-2027; revived its China de-risking plans in an economic security package; threatened to use its Anti-Coercion Instrument vs. China; pushed a magnet recycling plan; and announced a target for 70% of ‘critical goods’ to be “made in Europe”. Make Europe Great Again?
But can Brussels focus as the rule of law comes down on it? Politico argues, ‘Fraud probe risks plunging EU into biggest crisis in decades’ and “People who don’t like von der Leyen will use this against her.” Euractiv says, ‘Welcome to the jungle: Raids, arrests, and a crisis of EU credibility’, and “As far-right parties hammer Brussels over corruption, the EU’s own investigators may be proving them right.” Reportedly, top Commission official Sannino is also taking early retirement amid this scandal. For those thinking maybe economic statecraft is a flag to rally round, Germany’s far left just saved Chancellor Merz from a potential humiliation on pensions by abstaining in a key vote. What if a real military draft or joint debt issuance has to be voted on in Berlin, Paris, Madrid, Rome, etc.?
For the UK, this is tricky given Labor leans towards Europe, with suggestions it might consider a rule-breaking push to re-enter the Customs Union. Yet the EU’s new stance means the UK couldn’t supply most critical goods on top of limiting its ability to trade freely with the US, the Anglosphere, Japan, or South Korea, etc., unless/until a higher tariff pan-Western trade umbrella is eventually raised vs. China (which we see as the broad Trump plan). Grand macro strategy is hard when you don’t know you are in it.
At the macro level, some rule changes are the rule. In the UK, the OBR, stuck in a scandal, says billions in green energy subsidies were excluded from the recent, controversial Budget, as Chancellor Reeves has ordered a Treasury inquiry over leaks about it. (Not the officially sanctioned ones.)
In China, Shanghai launched a clampdown on “property market doom-mongering,” with up to internet 70,000 accounts shut down. That’s after the government reportedly told two private data agencies to withhold monthly home sales data for November, and until further notice. There are questions over when we will see those series return: presumably when sales are going up… which could be some time. Yet neither this nor the news that Chinese AI and big data are officially to guard against Western values and promote socialism will shake the market rule that says China is very investable vs. the previous “uninvestable.” THAT isn’t made by portfolio managers or analysts, but the MSCI equity index review process. Until one day it isn’t.
In the US, Axios reports the White House response to political and economic pressures is to double down on “ultra-MAGA”. As a new example, car fuel efficiency standards are to be relaxed to try to bring down vehicle prices, after floated changes in health insurance and mortgages.
Part of that will also be a White House focus on robotics to match that on AI, mirroring China. Yet how that eases MAGA voters’ concerns over looming job losses is unclear, unless robots first replace the millions of workers Trump wants to deport? Logically, labor costs don’t have to rise if so – and yet that again wouldn’t please many voters either. Mirroring rule breaking because of cost pressures and potential geopolitical emergencies also sees the Pentagon deploying a new, cheap kamikaze drone directly copied from an Iranian design, the Shaheed (as used by Russia vs. Ukraine, and which was unwittingly developed in part by British universities, “because markets”).
Ultra-MAGA also seems OK with its rule change towards backing regime change in Venezuela, as the Telegraph claims Maduro’s ‘terms of surrender’ were unacceptable to Trump: a blanket amnesty for himself and top officials as well as $200m. However, there rumours fly of a looming Maduro exit to various global locations, including Qatar. For its part, China is seen as unlikely to aid Venezuela: its experts reportedly think a Trump takeover could benefit Beijing if ‘spheres of influence’ come back into vogue, which obviously brings Taiwan into the mix again.
To come full circle, once spheres of influence are brought into the debate, and they are, the underlying emergency in Europe is even clearer. It doesn’t have one - it IS one.
If so, many more rules are going to be broken; either that or comfortable delusions will be. Remember:
IN CASE OF EMERGENCY BREAK RULES
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 11:05Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.There is much more in the article.
With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
But it is still important to track delinquencies and foreclosures.
...
This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions based on the Q3 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile released in late November. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.
The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was up 24% YOY from $765 million in Q3 2024 to $951 million in Q3 2025. This is still historically very low, but increasing.
Sturgeon’s Law states, “90% of everything is crap.” 1
Theodore Sturgeon was a science fiction writer in the 1950s and 60s. He was frequently annoyed by critics who dismissed the genre based on its worst examples. When asked, “Why is so much science fiction so bad?” his answer became known as Sturgeon’s Law.
I have taken it upon myself to craft “Sturgeon’s Corollary,” which states the following:
“90% of all investment products are crap.”
The reason for this becomes clear across nearly every type of financial product: Mutual funds, SPACs, hedge funds, private investments, ETFs — you name it. The simple truth is that beating a broad benchmark net of fees and taxes over a long-term investment horizon (5 to 10 years +) is incredibly difficult. Add high(er) fees, investment strategies that fall in and out of favor, and human behavioral errors, and you have a formula that makes it difficult to beat a mostly indexed portfolio.
This is not to say that there aren’t excellent examples of all these products. There are some wonderful ETFs and a handful of outstanding mutual funds. Many hedge funds, especially those run by emerging managers, quants, and multi-strategy shops can and do generate alpha. However, we need to acknowledge that selecting the funds that will outperform in advance is a long shot. Only a rare few sustain outperformance over the long term.
Sturgeon’s Corollary is especially true in private markets. Private credit, private debt, and private equity have experienced tremendous growth over the past decade. This has resulted in a land grab, as many players rush into the space to secure assets and fees.
For UHNW investors and RIAs interested in this space, there are five areas they should focus on when considering adding alternative investments to their platform.
Uncorrelated returns Risk Survivorship bias Illiquidity CostsThe most significant appeal of alternative investments is the claim of uncorrelated returns versus publicly traded equities and bonds. While one might assume that the underlying economic cycle will impact everything, there are instances where this has proven not to be the case. This is the most favorable aspect of private alternatives.
The second issue is risk, especially leverage. While we see many proposals showing better-than-index-based returns, many have achieved this Alpha through additional leverage. On a risk-adjusted returns basis, the outperformance often disappears.
Illiquidity and costs are well understood, so let us consider survivorship bias. The most recent analysis of Jeffrey Ptak of Morningstar shows:
“On Jan. 1, 2015, there were 1,345 alternative mutual funds in existence. Only 341 still existed on June 30, 2025 – a 75% mortality rate.”
That is quite a stat: Three out of four funds folded across a decade, with most going belly up within the first five years. This creates a situation where the remaining fund performance across the entire asset class appears better historically than it is prospectively, because the typical fund that closes does so due to poor performance and an inability to attract capital.
My attitude toward private investments has evolved over the decades; I believe that if you can access the top decile of funds, you absolutely should. Opportunities to invest in the top quartile should also be considered. Anything below that should be approached skeptically, as they tend to be expensive, illiquid, risk-laden, and underperforming.
I expect this will be a challenging area for investors over the next decade. High-net-worth investors tend to hear about the best funds in the media while either ignoring or not learning about the rest of the field. As we have seen elsewhere, mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds, SPACs, and so on, this is not a formula for success.
Your mileage may vary.
Previously:
10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy (October 2, 2023)
Why Most SPACs Suck (October 26, 2020)
90% of Everything is Crap (July 25, 2013)
Sources:
75% of Alternative Mutual Funds Have Died. There Are Lessons in That for Would-Be Private Market Investors
Jeffrey Ptak,
Morningstar, Aug 11, 2025
The State of Semiliquid Funds 2025 (Morningstar 2025)
__________
1. See Effectiviology, which notes that Sturgeon formalized it further in the March 1958 issue of Venture, calling it “Sturgeon’s Revelation.”
The post Sturgeon’s Corollary appeared first on The Big Picture.
In a development that is not entirely surprising, European leaders are claiming that Washington is looking to "betray" Ukraine and President Zelensky during potential formal peace negotiations with Russia. "There is a possibility that the United States will abandon Ukraine on territorial questions without providing clarity on security guarantees," French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly said according to a "leaked" phone call record with other European leaders.
Likely this was an intentional leak and bit of strong signaling to the Trump administration, as Europe has not been on board with the US President's proposed peace plan from the start. "There is a possibility that the US will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees," Macron continued. He laid his view that there was "a great danger" for Zelensky. However, Macron's office has subsequently sought to clarify that "The president did not use those words."
Via Reuters
The leaked transcript of the call between European leaders strategizing about how to protect the Zelensky government and Kiev's interests was published Thursday by the German magazine Der Spiegel.
Also reportedly on the line engaged in the conversation were German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and of course Zelensky as well.
Merz had in the dialogue agreed that Zelensky should be "extremely careful in the coming days" and warned the Ukrainian leader that "they are playing games with you and with us."
Finland's President Stubb followed with, "We must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these people" - after NATO Secretary General Rutte chimed in: "I agree with Alexander. We must protect Volodymyr." The underlying assumption seems to be that Zelensky is in a weak position and is being bullied by the more powerful US officials who have leverage.
The context to this part of the conversation is particularly interesting, given it seems to focus on Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were just in Moscow meeting with Putin, and are spearheading efforts to get the Trump 28-point peace plan (or 19-points based on reports of a revised version) past the goal line. Politico presents the section of the transcript as follows:
Finland’s Stubb seemed to agree with Merz, according to the transcript. "We cannot leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys," he said, apparently referring to Witkoff and Kushner, which attracted agreement from Rutte.
"I agree with Alexander — we must protect Volodymyr [Zelenskyy]," the NATO chief said. NATO declined to comment when reached by POLITICO.
Der Spiegel admits in its report that "These and other statements reproduced in the notes of the conversation illustrate the Europeans' deep distrust of the two Trump confidants." Michael Weiss, who was one of the report's co-authors, framed all of this as focused on countering "American dirty tricks to the end war."
One aspect to the conversation was the leaders found agreement on the issue of frozen Russian assets kept in EU banks, which they consider a purely European prerogative, amid recent reports the US is ready to return these to Moscow as part of a finalized Ukraine peace deal.
Washington efforts to quickly achieve peace by seriously engaging both sides are likened to "dirty tricks"?...
New at @derspiegel: We obtained the transcript of a conference call of top European leaders and Volodymyr Zelensky, warning of American dirty tricks to the end war.
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) December 4, 2025
Emmanuel Macron said there's a chance the U.S. will "betray" Ukraine on territory.
Friedrich Merz said: "They… pic.twitter.com/BjvzKPTw52
Zelensky's office has meanwhile neither conformed nor denied the accuracy of the leaked transcript. An unnamed Ukrainian diplomat did respond as follows when probed by Politico: "In general, only the Russians benefit from any splits between Europe and America, so our consistent position is that transatlantic unity must be maintained."
But the reality is that Zelensky has constantly pushed back against the idea of forging a peace without direct Ukrainian oversight and input. He has also consistently refused territorial concession, and his European backers have also balked at this key part of the Trump plan. The Kremlin is currently insisting that its control over the Donbass and Crimea not be just deemed de facto - but it wants full international and Ukrainian legal recognition that these territories are under the Russian Federation.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 10:45Authored by Dilip Kumar Patairya via CoinTelegraph.com,
Tether purchased 26 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a larger quarterly acquisition than any reporting central bank. Its total holdings reached 116 tons, placing it among the world’s top 30 gold holders.
Stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds, corporations and tech firms are increasingly active in gold markets. This trend marks a structural shift in global demand once dominated by central banks.
Central banks added 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, up 28% from Q2. Countries such as Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey and Guatemala made notable additions despite record prices.
While central banks buy gold for national monetary policy, Tether’s purchases come from profits and support diversification, resilience and collateralization for USDT.
The global financial system is witnessing a period when non-state entities are competing with central banks to build gold reserves. Tether, the issuer of Tether USDt - the largest stablecoin in the world - is now one of the largest buyers of gold. In a single quarter, the company purchased more gold than most central banks did in the same period.
This article explores how an enterprise moved ahead of central banks in purchasing gold for its reserves and discusses independent attestations of the purchase. It also examines the rise of non-state gold buyers and what Tether’s gold buying does not indicate.
A private company outpacing central banks in buying goldDuring the third quarter of 2025, Tether added 26 metric tons of gold to its holdings. According to analysts at Jefferies, this made Tether the single-largest gold buyer in that quarter, larger than the combined purchases of all reporting central banks.
By the end of September 2025, Tether’s total reported gold holdings stood at about 116 tons. If ranked alongside countries on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) official gold reserves list, this would place Tether among the top 30 holders worldwide, ahead of nations such as Greece, Qatar and Australia.
Per analysis from the investment bank Jefferies, Tether’s 26-ton purchase in Q3 2025 exceeded the official gold purchases of many mid-sized central banks during the same period. This reflects a wider trend.
Large private players, including stablecoin issuers, sovereign wealth funds and multinational corporations, are becoming significant participants in markets once dominated by governments. Research from the World Gold Council has also pointed to rising non-sovereign demand for gold.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said on X, “While the world continues to get darker, Tether will continue to invest part of its profits into safe assets like Bitcoin, Gold and Land.” The company has emphasized that these gold purchases are made from profits, not from customer reserves that back USDT. It holds that diversification into real assets strengthens long-term resilience.
Tether publishes quarterly independent attestations prepared by major accounting firms. These reports provide insight into the company’s reserves:
As of Sept. 30, 2025, gold and precious metals represent about 7% of Tether’s total consolidated reserves.
This figure includes both gold-backed USDT and gold allocated to Tether Gold, Tether’s tokenized gold product.
XAUT has a market value of roughly $1.6 billion, which corresponds to less than 12 tons of gold.
More than 100 tons of the reported gold is not tied to XAUT and forms part of Tether’s broader corporate reserves and investments.
The WGC “Gold Demand Trends – Q3 2025” report shows that central banks globally added a net 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025. For context, this was 28% higher than the Q2 figure and 6% more than the five-year quarterly average.
In 2025, the price of gold rose about 50% year-to-date. Record-high prices likely constrained the scale of initial purchases. However, the renewed increase in central bank demand during the latest quarter indicates that these institutions are continuing to add gold strategically. They are doing so even in the face of significantly higher prices.
To help you compare Tether’s gold purchase in Q3 2025, here is information about similar activity by central banks:
The National Bank of Kazakhstan was the most significant purchaser in the quarter, boosting its gold reserves by 18 tons to a total of 324 tons.
The Central Bank of Brazil, making its first gold purchase since July 2021, reported a 15-ton rise in its gold reserves in September 2025, bringing its total gold holdings to 145 tons.
The Central Bank of Turkey maintained its continuous gold accumulation, with its official central bank and Treasury gold reserves growing by seven tons in Q3 to 641 tons.
The Bank of Guatemala increased its gold reserves by six tons during the quarter, a substantial 91% jump. The bank now holds a total of 13 tons of gold, accounting for 5% of its total reserves.
While making such comparisons, it is important to remember that central banks have different objectives when purchasing gold.
Central banks acquire gold as part of their national monetary strategy, whereas Tether holds gold as part of its corporate reserves. The acquired gold serves as collateral for its stablecoin and as an asset diversification tactic.
The rise of non-state gold buyersBefore the rise of non-state gold buyers like Tether, demand for gold was driven mainly by central banks, the jewelry sector and commodity investors. In recent years, however, a growing share of gold purchases has come from private institutions, sovereign wealth funds, stablecoin issuers and corporate treasuries.
This shift is being driven by geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in currency values. Stablecoin issuers, in particular, have become significant participants. They are acquiring gold in quantities once associated with medium-sized national central banks.
Major technology companies and investment funds are also adding gold to their portfolios as part of broader strategies.
The rapid expansion of non-state gold buyers makes them a noticeable part of overall gold demand. They now form a steadily growing segment that is reshaping the pattern of global gold demand.
What Tether’s gold buying does not indicateTo prevent any misunderstanding, it is important to be clear about what this gold accumulation does not mean:
It does not indicate liquidity problems or a risk of insolvency. Independent attestations confirm the relationship between assets and liabilities. A private entity buying gold does not, on its own, indicate financial difficulty unless such concerns are disclosed by the entity.
It does not signal upcoming gold price moves. Gold buying by a non-state actor does not imply any market forecast or directional view.
It is not a monetary decision in the way central banks operate. Private companies manage their reserves under different objectives and rules, and their gold holdings serve corporate and operational purposes rather than national monetary policy.
This helps place Tether’s gold buying in its proper context and supports a better understanding of what the move represents.
Tyler Durden Thu, 12/04/2025 - 10:30
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