Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"

Excerpt:

“All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

Maybe we could say that all housing booms look alike, but every down cycle is “unhappy in its own way.”

In March 2022, I wrote Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust. Instead, I suggested a more similar period was the late ‘70s to early ‘80s.

It is natural to compare the current housing boom to the mid-00s housing bubble. The bubble and subsequent bust are part of our collective memories. And graphs of nominal house prices and price-to-rent ratios look eerily similar to the housing bubble.

However, there are significant differences. First, lending has been reasonably solid during the current boom, whereas in the mid-00s, underwriting standards were almost non-existent (“fog a mirror, get a loan”). And demographics are much more favorable today than in the mid-00s.

A much more similar period to today is the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. House prices were increasing sharply. Demographics were very favorable for homebuying as the baby boomers moved into the first-time homebuying age group (similar to the millennials now). And inflation picked up from an already elevated level due to the second oil embargo in 1979, followed by the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, driving up costs.

Sure enough, there hasn’t been a national crash in house prices. However, although there are similarities to the late ‘70s / early ‘80s period, there also significant differences. The most obvious difference is the sharp slowdown in population growth and immigration. The population and workforce were expanding sharply in the early ‘80s.

There is much more in the article.

 

 

One of the biggest challenges for investors is recognizing exactly how little we know about what the future holds. It is a rare moment in market history when what comes next is extremely obvious to most investors.

A few examples – and feel free to push back on these – include the post-1987 crash, the peak Dotcom/Tech bubble in Q1 2000, the subprime mortgage boom and bust that led into the Great Financial Crisis, and the March 2009 lows.

Those examples may appear obvious in hindsight. Recall how few people bought in circa March and April 2009; by October, the move off the GFC lows was being called “The Most Hated Rally” in stock market history. Fast forward three years to 2012, and strategists were the most bearish they had been on equities since 1985.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time. This is important when groups of people declare future outcomes with both abundant confidence and a lack of humility.

Recall the now-infamous Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s December 5, 1996 Irrational Exuberance speech. The market moved modestly upwards for another two years before exploding higher in late September 1998 (LTCM bailout), and then again in October 1999 (Pre-Y2K Fed liquidity injection).

 

With the benefit of hindsight, that now seems More like “Rational” than “Irrational” exuberance. The S&P500 gained 88.6%, but the more speculative Tech and Dotcom sector, represented by the Nasdaq 100, gained an astonishing 454.5%.

Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market in positive directions for years to come.

As my colleague Ben Carlson asked, “Is this 1996 or 1999?” I floated a broader question last month:

When was the last time the crowd, the media, or Wall Street accurately identified a bubble in real time?

By definition, it takes a crowd to drive prices to bubblicious levels. It is a challenge for the crowd to simultaneously speculate on a bubble and accurately identify one as it inflates.

See the Goldman Sachs’ chart of Forward P/E ratios by theme (at top). Some sectors are extremely overpriced—new IPOs and Meme stocks are trading at ridiculous forward earnings, mainly because they have very little or no earnings. The S&P 493—S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7— however, is not in bubble territory at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, yes, but not bubblicious.

Given the profit growth over the past few years (and expectations of lower interest rates), can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational?

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity observes “Meme stocks have lost some 60 P/E points, while the big players (Mag 7) trade at a [more] reasonable 32.6x and the S&P 493 at 20.7x. For the large caps these are not bubble valuations.”

That is where we are today: A 15-year rally that was initially built on a market that was cut in half (2007-09), followed by a post-crash recovery that was helped along by zero-interest rate policy, leading into the pandemic, which itself was helped along by the single largest fiscal stimulus as a percentage of GDP since World War II. Today, we see AI driving a market that continues to post record earnings. There is enough rationality that a run-of-the-mill 5% pullback sends the VIX up to 25, with genuine fear amongst traders and policymakers.

The key question investors face is this:

Is Artificial Intelligence more like the internet on the economy, where it continues to boost economic activity and efficiencies long after its introduction? Or are we in a period of malinvestment and reckless speculation that leads to a bubble and a market crash? Both?

You can cherry-pick charts that show a bubble or not.

Consider this chart (via the Washington Post) of Nvidia’s revenues. $57 billion per quarter in revenue is nothing like what we saw among the DotComs in the late 1990s; note the Magnificent 7 collectively pull in more than $2 trillion annually in revenues.

 

But the next chart is the one that I found especially compelling: Will investments in AI payoff to the tune of $650 billion in revenues above current levels by 2030?

 

If you suspect you know the answer to that, you know how to deploy your capital. If you are confident you know the answer, the odds suggest you may be overplaying your hand.

 

 

 

Previously:
The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History (October 8, 2009)

Understanding Investing Regime Change (October 25, 2023)

A Short History of Bubbles (October 24, 2025)

The Magnificent 493 (August 12, 2025)

All Time Highs Are Bullish (June 26, 2025)

The Stock Market Remains Undefeated (May 19, 2025)

RealTime Bubble Checklist (October 16, 2025)

 

The post Rational Exuberance? appeared first on The Big Picture.

The post Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart appeared first on CEPR.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 15.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.3%), and down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.3%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 21st, inventory was at 830 thousand (7-day average), compared to 840 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• World-Beating Stock Rally Creates New Headaches in Korean Market:.South Korean stocks are on track to post their strongest gains in a quarter century, with the Kospi up 61% so far in 2025. The rally has stirred doubts about its staying power due to growing anxiety over heated AI valuations. Some investors already pulling back due to concerns over the market’s sustainability. (Bloomberg)

• Berkshire Without Buffett: What’s Next for the Company and the Stock: As the legendary investor prepares to step down as CEO, here’s what his designated successor, Greg Abel, should do to bring Berkshire into the 21st century. (Barron’s)

• What I Meant When I Said Substack Isn’t Cool: The platform owns the newsletter space so completely its name is a synonym for the form, writes Chris Black, but it’s still just another algorithm. (GQ)

• The Risks Lurking in Wall Street’s Insurance Takeover: The retirement accounts and life insurance policies of the average American fueled massive private equity returns. Experts say the systemic risks are too big to ignore. (Bloomberg)

• The Good News and Bad News About California Film Shoots: More features are shooting in the state (even if TV is still falling in L.A.), but overall production spend is down notably as recent on-location activity is fueled by smaller-budget indie projects. (Hollywood Reporter)

• Will the YIMBY ‘Holy Grail’ Deliver an LA Building Boom? Supporters of the California zoning reform bill SB 79 say it will unleash a wave of multistory apartment buildings. In low-rise-loving Los Angeles, that could be a tall order. (CityLab)

• The Pentagon Can’t Trust GPS Anymore. Is Quantum Physics the Answer? New devices navigate without satellites or risk of enemy jamming signals. (Wall Street Journal)

• When it comes to nukes and AI, people are worried about the wrong thing: A rogue AI killing us all is, for now at least, a far-fetched fear; a human consulting an AI on pressing the button is the scenario that should keep us up at night. (Vox)

• (Some) MAGA Girls Just Wanna Have Fun: What does it mean to be female and conservative in 2025?  (The Atlantic)

• The Humble Ladybug Is Having a PR Crisis: Once known for bringing good luck, the insect is getting a bad rap thanks to an invasive species; ‘too many ladybugs’ (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Morgan Housel, whose new book, “The Art of Spending Money, Simple Choices for a Richer Life” was just published. His first book, “The Psychology of Money” sold over 10 million copies.

 

Growth is likely to reaccelerate in 2026, driven by lower trade war uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and a possible GDP boost of ~1 percentage point due to accelerated depreciation

Source: Apollo

 

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

College-Educated Oversupply Crisis Worsens 

The widening mismatch between an oversupply of college-educated workers and a deepening shortage of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs has grown even more pronounced.

Bloomberg reports that the latest delayed BLS data shows a sharp deterioration in white-collar jobs, especially those holding four-year degrees, now making up a record 25% of all unemployed - or about 1.9 million folks, the highest level since 1992.

The unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders climbed to 2.8% in September, while joblessness for other education groups remained relatively the same. Young degree-holders are getting squeezed the most: unemployment for ages 20 to 24 jumped to 9.2%, an increase rarely seen outside recessions. 

The jobs data builds on our note last week, citing Goldman analysts led by Evan Tylenda, who spoke with labor demographer Ron Hetrick.

Their discussion highlighted an alarming shift in the labor market: an oversupply of college graduates and a shortage of non-college-degree technical workers.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual spot. It offers key understandings of the shifting labor market ahead of the 2030s. 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp recently had an epic quote about this emerging labor market mess :

The average Ivy League grad voting for this mayor is annoyed their education is not that valuable, and that the person who knows how to drill for oil has a more valuable profession.

I think that annoys the f*ck out of these people. 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on Zohran Mamdani and NYC:

“We’re about to probably have a complete disaster. I was born in New York.

“If you asked, ‘do these things actually work?’ Everyone’s like, ‘of course I’m not going to vote for that.’ Instead they ask, ‘does it work in theory?’ pic.twitter.com/yvA6nn5Aeu

— Jawwwn (@jawwwn_) November 4, 2025

The education industrial complex has spent more time transforming kids into Marxist activists than preparing them for future labor market shifts. Now, these purple-haired degree holders are entering a shrinking labor market, and companies view these kids as giant liabilities.

It’s time for young people to consider avoiding overpriced college. Perhaps time to learn an actual skill that makes you valuable, one that lets you remain productive before automation and AI sweep the labor market, such as building data centers or working on natural gas turbines. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 05:45

FAA Prepared For Busiest Thanksgiving Travel In 15 Years

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is preparing for the busiest Thanksgiving holiday travel period in 15 years.

More than 360,000 flights are scheduled between Monday, Nov. 24, and Tuesday, Dec. 2, delivering people to and from their destinations across the country. Flights are set to peak on Nov. 25, with more than 52,000 flights alone, and Nov. 26 is expected to be nearly as busy, with more than 50,000 flights scheduled.

Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27, is expected to see the lowest air traffic that week, with the administration forecasting more than 25,500 flights. Last week, the FAA ended its mandatory flight reductions and now stands ready to oversee the travel spike.

“Thanks to the dedication of our air traffic controllers and every FAA employee, we are ready for the holiday rush and take pride in helping travelers reach their friends and families during this important time of year,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said.

“I am deeply grateful to our entire FAA team. Even through a period of record-high traffic, their unwavering commitment keeps the system running safely.”

One of the airports that faced those reductions, Tampa International Airport (TPA) in Florida, released its own statement ahead of the holiday rush to assure travelers that it would be fully staffed.

“TPA is ready to fully handle the estimated 924,000-plus passengers projected to pass through the Airport over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period from November 20 to December 1,” the airport said in its statement.

“TPA’s operations team anticipates that Sunday, November 30, will be the busiest day, with an estimated 86,278 passengers expected to pass through the airport.”

If delays are experienced, it is unlikely to be due to the volume of flights, according to the FAA.

As of Nov. 10, the administration said that approximately 13.5 percent of total delay time was due to volume, while more than 62 percent was due to weather.

And weather could become an issue for several airports across the country and across the travel period.

“A frontal system passing from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast Sunday into Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow showers,” the Weather Prediction Center said on Nov. 22.

“Thunderstorms will continue today for south Texas in [the] vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary.”

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is anticipating severe rainfall on Nov. 24, with rainfall totals possibly reaching up to four inches. However, on Thanksgiving Day, the weather is expected to be sunny and dry, with a high of 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

Heavy rains will also be felt across Texas and the Mississippi River, extending to Kansas City, Missouri.

“Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Monday into Tuesday as another disturbance and associated cold front pushes through Southeast TX,” the National Weather Service’s Houston office stated.

“Some storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible. The greatest risk of strong to severe storms will be generally north of I-10. Instability will be a limiting factor though.”

Slow-moving showers will also affect the greater Atlanta area and the southeast.

“Slow-moving showers push into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday with beneficial rainfall expected, especially over north Georgia,” the National Weather Service’s Atlanta/Peachtree City Office said.

Out west, Denver could also be affected as the National Weather Service reports a cold front moving across its part of the Rocky Mountains on Nov. 24 and Nov. 25, bringing possible snow showers. However, as of Nov. 22, forecasted travel impacts remain minimal.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) projected that approximately 6 million people will travel by air for Thanksgiving this year, a 2 million year-over-year increase. But this represents only a fraction of total travelers during this holiday period.

“At least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers, and an additional 1.3 million people on the road compared to last Thanksgiving,” AAA said on its website.

“That number could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 05:00

Luxembourgers Are The World's Biggest Coffee Drinkers

The global coffee market continues to grow, but consumption patterns vary widely across countries. Northern European nations dominate the upper tiers, driven by a long-standing café culture and high per-capita spending. Meanwhile, large emerging markets drink far less per person despite being major producers.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks 65 countries by their daily coffee consumption per capita in 2025, showing how drinking habits differ around the world. The table below also includes data on lifetime coffee consumption, and average cup prices.

The data for this ranking comes from Cafely.

Europe Continues to Dominate Global Coffee Consumption

Northern Europe remains the global center of coffee drinking. Luxembourg leads the world with 5.31 cups per day per person—far ahead of larger economies.

Luxembourg’s per-capita figure is boosted by its huge commuter workforce. Nearly half of all workers (47%) live outside the country, and their daily coffee consumption is counted in Luxembourg’s totals.

Finland and Sweden, long known for their strong coffee cultures, follow closely behind. All of the top 10 countries are European, reflecting both historical preferences and high purchasing power.

RankCountryDaily coffee
consumption
per Capita (Cups)Lifetime
Consumption (Cups)Price
per cupLifetime spending 1Luxembourg5.31118,227$3.60$425,618 2Finland3.7783,939$4.00$335,756 3Sweden2.5958,612$3.70$216,863 4Norway2.5758,159$4.40$255,900 5Austria2.0345,198$3.30$149,153 6Denmark2.0444,676$5.40$241,250 7Switzerland1.8742,318$5.00$211,591 8Netherlands1.7939,854$3.10$123,548 9Greece1.7137,449$3.10$116,092 10Germany1.6135,259$3.10$109,303 11Canada1.5734,956$3.50$122,346 12Belgium1.5734,383$3.10$106,587 13France1.4832,952$3.10$102,152 14Slovenia1.4932,631$1.70$55,473 15Italy1.4432,587$1.54$50,184 16Lebanon1.631,536$3.63$114,476 18Brazil1.5831,142$1.55$48,270 17Cyprus1.4231,098$3.17$98,581 19Portugal1.4130,879$1.66$51,259 20Croatia1.4730,583$1.72$52,603 21Estonia1.4429,959$3.05$91,376 22Lithuania1.4328,707$2.72$78,084 23Czech Republic1.2526,463$2.46$65,098 24United States1.2225,827$4.69$121,131 24Australia1.1425,798$3.24$83,586 26Ireland1.1325,159$3.47$87,303 27Spain1.0623,988$1.92$46,057 28Costa Rica1.0522,229$2.55$56,683 29Japan0.9321,385$3.10$66,295 30Poland0.9519,765$2.48$49,017 31Latvia0.9719,119$2.78$53,150 32Bulgaria0.9818,243$1.57$28,641 33South Korea0.7416,746$3.59$60,119 34Romania0.8616,637$2.01$33,440 35Malta0.6715,162$2.45$37,147 36Algeria0.7214,454$0.84$12,141 37El Salvador0.7113,217$2.65$35,024 38Hungary0.6412,848$1.57$20,171 39Venezuela0.6912,844$1.59$20,423 40Slovakia0.6112,468$2.15$26,807 41Colombia0.612,264$1.14$13,981 42Ukraine0.5810,797$1.13$12,200 43Saudi Arabia0.5210,629$3.82$40,602 44Taiwan0.469,906$2.79$27,638 45Dominican Republic0.529,870$2.11$20,825 46Russia0.59,673$2.91$28,147 47Honduras0.519,494$1.80$17,089 48Vietnam0.428,125$1.99$16,169 49Philippines0.437,848$2.47$19,383 50Ethiopia0.467,556$0.78$5,893 51Haiti0.467,220$2.74$19,782 52Turkey0.316,450$1.54$9,932 53Thailand0.36,351$1.81$11,495 54Morocco0.315,997$1.62$9,715 55Guatemala0.345,957$2.37$14,118 56Mexico0.295,610$2.55$14,306 57Indonesia0.274,829$2.06$9,948 58Argentina0.214,292$1.76$7,555 59Sudan0.233,694$1.80$6,649 60Madagascar0.193,051$1.19$3,631 61Egypt0.173,040$1.99$6,050 62South Africa0.172,544$1.72$4,376 63Peru0.112,208$2.50$5,521 64Uganda0.081,226$2.86$3,508 65India0.02365$1.83$668 Large Economies Consume Less Coffee Per Person

Despite being major consumers in absolute terms, large countries such as the United States, Japan, and Brazil rank much lower on a per-person basis.

The United States averages 1.22 cups per day, placing it 24th overall. Japan, with its thriving café scene and canned-coffee culture, averages just under one cup per day. Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, lands mid-pack at 18th with 1.58 cups per day.

Some Countries Barely Drink Coffee at All

At the bottom of the ranking are countries where tea or other beverages dominate daily habits. India records the lowest consumption at just 0.02 cups per day—roughly one cup every seven weeks. Several African and South Asian countries also rank low, typically drinking less than 0.3 cups daily.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which Countries Drink the Most Wine? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 04:15

UK Greenlights First Rolls-Royce SMR Project Despite US Pushback

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• UK selects Rolls-Royce as preferred SMR developer and launches its first project at Wylfa, aiming for mid-2030s power generation.

• The decision triggers criticism from the Trump administration, which pushed for U.S. firm Westinghouse to lead the project.

• Despite diplomatic friction, the UK says SMRs will anchor a domestic nuclear revival and leave room for future collaboration with U.S. developers.

After selecting Rolls-Royce as the United Kingdom’s preferred bidder to build the country’s first small modular reactors (SMRs), the government has confirmed the start of project development in Wales. The development of SMR technology is expected to help the U.K. expand its nuclear power capacity, as well as become a competitive SMR power. However, the United States Trump administration, which recently signed an agreement with the U.K. for SMR development, does not support the choice of a British company for the development of the technology. 

In June, the U.K. government announced that Rolls-Royce SMR had been selected as the preferred bidder to partner with Great British Energy – Nuclear (GBE-N) to develop SMRs, subject to final government approvals and contract signature. The government pledged almost $3.3 billion for the SMR programme, expecting to support the creation of 3,000 new skilled jobs and power the equivalent of roughly 3 million homes with clean, domestic energy. 

The SMR project marks a major shift in the U.K.’s approach to nuclear energy, as it develops the first two major conventional nuclear plants in several decades and invests in new nuclear technologies. SMRs are smaller and faster to build than conventional nuclear reactors, and their modular nature means that more capacity can be added as required. 

In November, the government announced plans to develop a first-of-its-kind nuclear power station on the Welsh island of Anglesey. The plant at Wylfa will be home to three SMRs, although it will have space for up to eight, with works expected to commence in 2026 and first power generation in the mid-2030s.

The existing nuclear plant at Wylfa was powered down in 2015, and previous plans for a large-scale replacement were scrapped in 2021. The new project is expected to bring a much-needed boost to Anglesey’s economy, as well as provide jobs for several decades. Prime Minister Kier Starmer said, “Britain was once a world leader in nuclear power, but years of neglect and inertia have meant places like Anglesey have been let down and left behind. Today, that changes."

The First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, supports the project and has been “pressing the case at every opportunity for Wylfa's incredible benefits”. Meanwhile, the U.K. energy minister, Ed Miliband, said that Britain is in the race for new reactors. Miliband said in a radio interview that the aim is to “work with local colleges to make sure that there are local skills providers, skills training opportunities, so local people get these jobs”.

The SMRs will be built in a modular format in factories before being shipped to site to be assembled. However, several challenges remain, including getting regulatory approval, building the SMR factories, and training the workforce to operate the sites. Rolls-Royce will build on its experience developing reactors for Britain’s nuclear submarines to develop the SMRs. Since promoting its SMR business, the British firm has attracted several investors, including the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund – the Qatar Investment Authority, the American utility Constellation, and CEZ, the Czech Republic’s power company.

While the new project offers high hopes for the development of the U.K.’s nuclear energy industry, U.S. President Trump is less than happy with Prime Minister Starmer’s selection of Rolls-Royce for the job. The U.S. was reportedly hoping that the U.K. government would choose American Westinghouse Electric Company to develop a conventional nuclear plant at Wylfa.

Before the Anglesey project was announced, the U.S. ambassador Warren Stephens published a statement saying that Britain should choose “a different path” in Wales. “We are extremely disappointed by this decision, not least because there are cheaper, faster and already-approved options to provide clean, safe energy at this same location,” Stephens stated. The ambassador’s response follows the signing of a nuclear partnership between the U.K. and the U.S. in September, with a potential value of $100 billion.

However, a source close to the U.K. government said, “This is the right choice for Britain. This is our flagship SMR programme, producing homegrown clean power with a British company, and we have chosen the best site for it.”

Nevertheless, the U.K. government said that developing SMRs at Wylfa “doesn’t close the door" to a U.S. manufacturer working on a future project. GBE-N is also assessing different sites in the U.K. for the potential development of another large-scale nuclear power plant, like Hinkley Point in Somerset and Sizewell C in Suffolk, which are currently being developed and are expected to power around six million homes once complete.

Despite the agreement for greater cooperation between the U.K. and the U.S. on nuclear power, the U.K. government has chosen a British company to develop its first SMR project, showing its support for the development of domestic nuclear technologies. The project is expected to make the U.K. highly competitive in the field of SMR reactor development over the coming decade, as well as diversify the country’s nuclear power industry. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 03:30

G20 In South Africa Ends With A Whimper After Trump Snubs Event

South Africa is back in the news yet again, and facing embarrassment yet again.  South Africa's far-left government was hoping that the G20 Summit held this week in Johannesburg would elevate the country's global position and garner them international attention (and funding).  It is the first time in history that the G20 has been held in South Africa.    

However, the Trump Administration has made it clear that the South African event is a nothing-burger and the real G20 will be held in the US (in Florida) in 2026.  The meeting was not only snubbed by Trump; China, Russia, Argentina, Mexico and Indonesia did not send representatives either, likely because the summit had no momentum without US participation. 

Confusion arose when SA President Cyril Ramaphosa spread rumors that the US was actually participating in the talks, leading the media to suggest Trump had flip-flopped. 

When asked about the alleged shift, Press Secretary Karoline Levit accused Ramaphosa of 'running his mouth' about the US and spreading misinformation.  No such change had occurred and the US did not attend the talks.  This is yet another example of Ramaphosa making claims which end up being easily debunked.

A primary contention over the event was the highlighting of the global warming and carbon taxation agenda, which Trump has repeatedly called out as a fraud.  For countries like South Africa, however, the climate change issue has the potential to become highly lucrative.

The UN, the WEF and many other globalist institutions have called for carbon taxation as a form of wealth redistribution from wealthy nations to third world nations.  Carbon taxes are sometimes referred to as "climate reparations" that could greatly enrich countries with less substantial industry (carbon footprint).  The carbon scheme is in fact nothing more than another cash grab by global elites, using the "plight" of the third world and unfounded fears of climate oblivion as justifications for centralized carbon taxation and worldwide socialism.

South Africa is facing deepening economic decline, with a 32% unemployment rate and imploding infrastructure (due to lack of proper maintenance over the span of decades), the country was already in dire straits when Trump entered office. 

Trump made South Africa's anti-white policies (145 race based laws that undermine the rights of white citizens) and land confiscation laws international news. He then crushed President Cyril Ramaphosa on live TV with videos of communist political groups calling for the mass murder of white farmers (Boers) after Ramaphosa denied such a problem existed. 

The end of the insidious USAID organization and cuts to foreign funding have further eroded SA's economy.  Now, their first ever G20 event is opening with a whimper of empty resolutions and missing world leaders. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 02:45

Why'd Kazakhstan Join The Abraham Accords When It Already Recognizes Israel?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Many observers were surprised after Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s trip to DC to attend the latest C5+1 Summit since it’s already recognized Israel since 1992.

The Presidential and Foreign Ministry websites shed more light on this decision.

The first wrote that “By joining the Abraham Accords, Kazakhstan seeks to contribute to overcoming confrontation, promoting dialogue, and supporting international law based on the principles of the UN Charter.”

It added that “The decision of Kazakhstan does not affect the country’s bilateral commitments with any state and represents a natural continuation and manifestation of its multilateral diplomacy aimed at promoting peace and security.”

The second echoed this message: “This important decision was made solely in the interests of Kazakhstan and is fully consistent with the nature of republic’s balanced, constructive, and peaceful foreign policy.”

Their statement then concluded as follows: “Joining the Abraham Accords will contribute to strengthening our country’s cooperation with all interested states and, therefore, is fully in line with Kazakhstan’s strategic goals. Kazakhstan will continue to firmly advocate for a just, comprehensive, and sustainable settlement of the Middle East conflict based on international law, relevant UN resolutions, and the principle of ‘two states for two peoples.’”

Accordingly, the official explanation is that this purely symbolic move was meant to signal support for a “two-state solution” and bolster Kazakhstan’s multi-alignment policy, but there’s actually more to it. This was indisputably intended to appeal to Trump, thus raising Tokayev’s profile in his eyes, and coincided with the raft of deals that they agreed to. This importantly includes a MoU on critical minerals that was assessed here as putting pressure, unintended by Kazakhstan but deliberate by the US, on Russia.

The above preceded Tokayev’s trip to Moscow to meet with Putin, the purpose of which was to reassure Russia that Kazakhstan isn’t siding with the US against it, but it’s now clear that Kazakhstan is more actively relying on the US for balancing Russia. It’s this trend, which isn’t new but is now taking on a qualitatively different form due to how the new TRIPP Corridor is expected to intensify US-Kazakh ties and Tokayev doing a personal favor for Trump by joining the Abraham Accords, that’s most newsworthy.

It was earlier warned that “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery”, which Russia is aware of as proven by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent remarks to this effect, and that “A US Think Tank Considers Kazakhstan To Be A Key Player For Containing Russia”. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan is still a member of the Russian-led CSTO military bloc and the EAEU economic one, but it’s understandable if Putin might soon begin to wonder about Tokayev’s long-term intentions.

Azerbaijan just announced that its armed forces now conform with NATO standards, and if Kazakhstan one day tries to follow suit, then Russia’s threat assessment would spike. Tokayev hasn’t signaled any such plans, but by doing a personal favor for Trump by joining the Abraham Accords, he likely expects him and the US to have his back if he ever decides to do so and this leads to a crisis with Russia. Therein lies the real significance of what he just did, which lends credence to concerns about his intentions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 02:00

Taiwan Minister Says 'Consensus' Reached With US To Shield Chips From Tariffs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Taiwanese National Science and Technology Council Minister Wu Cheng-wen said that Taiwan and the United States have reached a “consensus” to keep tariffs off Taipei’s semiconductor industry.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. headquarters in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Oct. 20, 2021. AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying, File

In a Financial Times interview published on Nov. 20, Wu said that Taiwan will support the United States in building its chip industry, and in return, the United States will offer tariff relief for the island’s semiconductor sector.

“Of course, there’s the recipes of how to make the chips, but it’s also about the science park management, attracting companies, integrating academic research with industry,” Wu told the news outlet. “No other country has done what we have done.”

Wu did not provide details about the consensus that was reached.

Taiwanese Economic Minister Kung Ming-hsin told reporters on Nov. 22 that Taiwan has not finalized any trade agreement with the United States yet, but he noted that Taiwan’s negotiators are “working hard on it,” local media reported.

Taiwan hopes to secure a deal with the Trump administration that would ease the current 20 percent U.S. tariffs on its exports. U.S. President Donald Trump in August threatened tariffs of up to 300 percent on chip imports.

Wu said that Washington is unlikely to impose such high tariffs on Taiwan’s semiconductors because the administration understands that “punishing Taiwan is not in their interests.”

Taiwan’s dominant role in global chip manufacturing, led by chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., has been labeled as a deterrent against the Chinese regime’s military aggression, a concept known as the “silicon shield.”

Wu said in the interview that Taiwan was looking to create a “second silicon shield” in areas such as drones, robotics, and medical technology to diversify its strategic assets beyond chips.

However, Wu noted that Taiwan intends to keep its cutting-edge research and development within the island, citing potential security concerns if the sector were relocated overseas.

“If we move our [research and development] overseas, it’ll be dangerous for us,” he said. “New weapons and defense systems rely on advanced chips.”

The White House has not publicly commented on Wu’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told NewsNation on Sept. 27 that the two sides have discussed producing equal shares of the semiconductor chips required to meet U.S. demand.

Washington wants Taiwan to move half of its semiconductor production to the United States, Lutnick said. Ultimately, the goal is for the United States to capture at least 40 percent of the semiconductor market, which would require $500 billion in domestic investment, he said.

“That has been the conversation we had with Taiwan, [telling them] that ‘you have to understand it’s vital for you to have us produce 50 percent,’” he said.

In response to Lutnick’s comments, the Office of Trade Negotiations of Taiwan’s Executive Yuan, the highest administrative organ in Taiwan, said that it would exercise prudence in trade negotiations with the United States, according to Taiwanese media outlets.

Frank Fang contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 23:55

Hamas Threatens 'Ceasefire Is Over' Amid Rising Israeli Airstrikes

Hamas is threatening the collapse the US-backed ceasefire after a series of Israeli airstrikes and a rising death toll in Gaza over much of the past week. However, Israel's military in fresh Sunday statements has said it is Hamas terrorists repeatedly violating the truce.

"The agreement is over and [Hamas] is ready to fight," Hamas sources have been cited in regional outlets as saying. Hamas has reportedly communicated its stance to US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, that it is ready to end the ceasefire.

Via Reuters

But Israeli media in follow-up stated, "Hamas later that evening stated that Israeli reports that it had told Witkoff that the ceasefire was over were not true. Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzook also confirmed to the Qatari outlet Al Jazeera Mubasher that the terror group had not ended the ceasefire."

The ceasefire is clearly as fragile as it has ever been since taking effect on October 10:

An American source told Walla that "Hamas has not given up yet, but has made it clear that it will not be able to accept any more Israeli attacks. Gaza will not be Lebanon for them, and I hope we can contain the situation." —Jerusalem Post

Israel's military has accused terrorists of breaching the so-called Yellow Line which demarcates a truce 'do not cross' zone; but meanwhile Hamas has asserted Israeli occupation is committing a flagrant breach by steadily moving the 'Yellow Line' westward.

Gaza officials have said that the significant and rising death toll since the ceasefire took effect shows it is Israel doing the violating:

Israel has violated the United States-brokered Gaza ceasefire at least 497 times in 44 days, killing hundreds of Palestinians since the ceasefire came into effect on 10 October, according to the Gaza Government Media Office.

Some 342 civilians have been killed in the attacks, with children, women and the elderly accounting for the majority of the victims.

But Israeli officials and media have rejected this narrative, and have instead said that "On Saturday, a Palestinian gunman crossed the ceasefire line and opened fire on Israeli troops in Gaza’s south, leading to IDF strikes in the Strip."

Gaza right now, ceasefire is a lie! #GazaUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/DWftLhe1a9

— Ahmed El-Madhoun (@madhoun95) November 22, 2025

Saturday alone saw some 24 Palestinians killed in a series of renewed Israeli airstrikes across the Strip. Washington has urged restraint and for both sides to observe the ceasefire, but Trump officials have also conceded that Israel has the right to act in specific instances where its troops in Gaza come under attack.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 22:45

Geoengineering Is No Longer Just A Theory

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

Most people check the weather the way they check traffic or the time. Rain might mean rearranging plans or canceling a child’s T-ball game. A cold snap might simply mean pulling out a sweater or your favorite tweed jacket. Weather, for most people, is an inconvenience or a conversation starter. Because when you need water, you turn on a faucet. When you’re cold or hot, you adjust the thermostat. Weather becomes background noise rather than a force that shapes survival.

For farmers, weather is everything.

We don’t just look at the forecast. We live by it. We watch humidity, wind patterns, soil temperature, and cloud formation with the kind of attention most people reserve for financial markets or national security briefings. A few degrees of difference can determine whether a crop thrives or dies. We wait for moisture the way some people wait for medical news. Because one wrong call can erase months of work.

Earlier this year, the temperatures had been in the high 90s for weeks. Summer seemed to arrive early, and the weather service confidently projected warm, stable nights in the 50s. Based on that forecast, we continued preparing the greenhouses and tending the spring crops. Everything looked promising.

Then one Monday morning in late April, we woke up to ice. Not frost. Ice.

Our greenhouses weren’t sealed, because the forecast told us we were safe. The propane heaters inside are set to turn on automatically at 38 degrees, and they ran full force all night. By sunrise, we had burned through $5,000 in propane, and everything was still dead. Every spring tomato. Every cucumber. Tender annuals. Guavas, lemons, and young tropicals. Outside the greenhouse, brand-new kale and broccoli seedlings that had finally established themselves were frozen limp and useless.

There was no warning. Just loss.

That is what it means when a farmer mentions the weather. He isn’t complaining. He is praying that a single cold snap, drought, hailstorm, or unpredictable shift doesn’t take away his livelihood. We do everything we can, but the weather still decides what survives.

Which is why the cultural conversation around climate and weather is so interesting. We’ve been quick for years to talk about climate change. And I’ve always said: If we’re going to talk about climate change, we also have to talk about geoengineering. Because at this stage, it’s hard to know where one ends and the other begins. It’s hard to know whether the shifts we’re experiencing are natural, human-caused, manipulated, or some combination of all three. It’s even fair to ask whether climate change exists in the exact framework we’ve been presented—or whether geoengineering exists in the exact framework we’ve been told—or whether the lines have been blurred without transparency.

This was once considered wild conspiracy, the kind of thing people joked about with tinfoil hat references. Yet now it’s discussed openly. Amazon Prime hosts documentaries about it. Universities conduct research on it. Weather modification companies operate publicly in multiple states. Government agencies acknowledge it.

Today here in Kerr County, after heavy flooding, a CEO of a weather modification company made a point to assure the public that his cloud seeding was not responsible for the rainfall. I’m not claiming it was. But when someone feels compelled to explain themselves for something everyone swore didn’t exist 10 years ago, the conversation has already changed.

And that leads to a reasonable and necessary question:

What is the ripple effect?

Weather is a system. Everything in nature is interconnected. If you add rain here, does that mean less rain somewhere else? If you alter cloud structure or reflect sunlight, does that shift wind patterns, soil moisture, or storm behavior? If we inject particles into the atmosphere to cool temperatures globally, what happens to regional rainfall, food systems, ecosystems, and planting zones?

Farmers think this way because we live in the reality of consequences. We don’t work in theory. We work in soil, water, frost, and risk. Every decision has an outcome.

So if geoengineering and cloud seeding are now part of public policy, private industry, and scientific pursuit, then the people whose lives depend most on natural systems deserve transparency. We deserve honesty. We deserve oversight. And we deserve a voice before—not after—changes are made.

We can choose what we eat and what we put on our bodies. But we cannot choose what falls from the sky.

Weather is not a casual headline or a political slogan. It’s the difference between feeding our community or losing everything. If climate change is real in the way we’ve been told, then geoengineering absolutely matters. If geoengineering is now a reality, then the climate narrative cannot be discussed without it.

The sky is not a laboratory. It is a life support system.

And the question that remains is not whether these experiments are helpful, harmful, necessary, or misguided.

The real question is much simpler.

Did the people beneath the sky ever consent?

Because I don’t remember being asked. And I doubt most people do.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 21:00

MTA Hunts For $675 Million Worth Of Loose Change In Subway Seat Cushions

Because the universe is nothing if not predictable, we’re back with yet another episode of “New York’s transit agency attempts first grade math.”

The MTA has once again found itself rummaging through the sofa cushions of the nation’s largest transit network, searching for spare millions, according to Bloomberg. If it feels like we’re constantly writing about their chronic cash-management drama, that’s because… we are. 

New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority is now targeting $675 million in additional cuts over the next four years, aiming to trim anything that can reasonably be declared unnecessary. This comes from its latest budget presentation, which also outlines multiple cost-saving initiatives already in motion.

Bloomberg writes that the agency is finally phasing out the yellow MetroCard, swapping in OMNY as the full-time fare system to eliminate a slew of legacy maintenance costs. It’s also replacing older commuter-rail train cars and deploying artificial intelligence to streamline supply needs. Those efforts come alongside hopes for a rebound in real estate tax revenue, expected to return to roughly $1.1 billion annually by 2027 after dropping to $719 million in 2024.

All this belt-tightening is unfolding against the backdrop of fewer riders than before the pandemic, rising labor and supply expenses, and an estimated $1 billion annual hit from fare evasion. Despite that, MTA leadership insists they’re holding things together. As Janno Lieber said during a board meeting, “Figuring out how to do more with less has been the daily priority of the MTA these last few years. And I think we’re doing it pretty well.”

The agency estimates the combined cuts and revenue gains will narrow deficits by $418 million over the next three years. Officials now anticipate a $160 million gap in 2027 — under 1% of that year’s operating budget — before deficits climb again, to $243 million in 2028 and $306 million in 2029.

Much of the long-term savings are tied to the OMNY rollout, which eliminates MetroCard-related costs like machine upkeep and coin handling. New Long Island Rail Road cars should reduce maintenance needs, and improved scheduling technology is set to make train and crew deployment more efficient.

Still, even with additional state funding replacing expired federal pandemic aid, the MTA faces some significant uncertainties. Future budgets rely on fare and toll hikes planned for 2027 and 2029, assume $500 million in casino revenue that depends on yet-to-be-finalized developments, and hinge on a long-delayed $600 million FEMA reimbursement for pandemic cleaning expenses.

Lieber noted the holdup bluntly: “Money was promised under the first Trump administration to fund that, but it hasn’t yet come from Washington. That application’s been sitting for awhile.”

And so the MTA’s eternal budget circus continues...

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 21:00

US State Department Designates "DEI" As A Violation Of Human Rights

There is no way for a government to enforce Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies without also discriminating against certain groups of people.  DEI, by its very nature, is anti-merit, anti-success and pro-privilege.  Of course, the groups that are most commonly discriminated against under DEI quotas are mostly white, male and straight.  The assumption being that white dudes are widely considered "fair game" by the rest of society. 

This dynamic creates a never-ending cycle of people clamoring for oppression status rather than personal integrity and accomplishment.  To win in life, you must figure out a way to catch the government's favor and attain that coveted prize; to rise to the top of the diversity totem pole.

This ideology has infected societies throughout most first world countries and even some developing nations.  Woke activism seems rampant in the US, but that's because DEI faces American opposition.  The color revolution is louder because their power is failing.  For the rest of the west, however, DEI in government is an absolute.  This is a problem because it requires Americans to reconsider which countries they view as "allies." 

The Trump Administration is adjusting to this ideological conflict quickly, and part of this change requires that the US starts openly calling out far-left governments for their destructive behaviors.

Countries enforcing DEI policies will now be at risk of the Trump Administration deeming them as human rights abusers, which upends the status quo when it comes to diplomatic relations.  The State Department is issuing new rules to all US embassies and consulates involved in compiling its annual report on global human rights violations.  

Other policies by foreign governments which US embassies will be told to categorize as human rights infringements include:     

Subsidising abortions, "as well as the total estimated number of annual abortions"     

Gender-transition surgery for children, defined by the state department as "operations involving chemical or surgical mutilation... to modify their sex."     

Facilitating mass or illegal migration "across a country's territory into other countries."     

Arrests or "official investigations or warnings for speech" - a reference to the Trump administration's opposition to internet safety laws adopted by some European countries to deter online "hate speech" (any speech which is critical of woke ideology no matter rational).  

A senior State Department official says, rather blatantly, that the new rules are "a tool to change the behavior of governments".  That is to say, the sooner foreign governments abandon woke cultism, the easier it will be for them to engage with the US in terms of relations and trade.  

State Department deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott said the new instructions are intended to stop "new destructive ideologies [that] have given safe harbor to human rights violations". 

"The Trump administration will not allow these human rights violations, such as the mutilation of children, laws that infringe on free speech, and racially discriminatory employment practices, to go unchecked." 

Leftist officials are calling the new policy an "attack on marginalized groups" and a "new low for Trump."  But once again, there is a substantial disconnect between what leftists see as a human right versus what normal people see as a human right.

The rights that the Trump Administration is referring to include the right to free speech, the right to secure borders, the right to cultural integrity without fear of engineered cultural replacement, the protection of children from manufactured consent, the right to equal opportunities (not equal outcomes), the right to life, etc.  Many of these ideals are taken for granted in the US as the norm, but the Biden Administration revealed how fragile such standards can be.

Leftists see human rights as contingent on identity.  In other words, some people have more rights than others depending on their genetic history and gender orientation.  Bureaucrats and progressive gatekeepers have conveniently made themselves the decision makers for which groups deserve the most rights.

They see speech rights as conditional; it all depends on the ethnicity and sexual identity of the person who is talking. 

They treat national borders and national identity as a social construct that needs to be torn down (if the country is rooted in western civilization).  They see the west as a global commons, an economic zone to be pillaged, not protected.

They view morality as relative, childhood as circumstantial and parental rights as an obstacle.  The grooming of children is a political imperative for leftist survival.  Questions of right and wrong never enter their minds.    

Millions of Americans have been united in solidarity against DEI and other mechanisms of progressive authoritarianism, turning back from the edge of utter disaster.  It makes little sense, then, to reward woke foreign governments with alliances and economic benefits after spending years struggling to defeat those same cancerous notions in the US.    

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 20:25

Restraint Technique That Supposedly Killed George Floyd Was Part Of Officer Training?

Derek Chauvin's defense attorneys have filed a new petition that challenges the 2021 murder conviction that sent Chauvin to prison over George Floyd's death. The petition includes over 50 former and current MPD officers who made sworn declarations that the technique Chauvin used to restrain George Floyd was part of the official training they received.

The 71-page petition was sent to Hennepin County District Court, where Attorney Greg Joseph stated that “this case simply never made sense."  The petition asserts that the case involves two key issues: intent and causation. Did the restraint of Floyd follow policies and procedures of the Minneapolis Police Department (MPD); and, did the restraint cause Floyd's death

In each case, the evidence is thin.  Yet, prosecutors achieved a conviction which many critics argue was pure theater - The human sacrifice of Derek Chauvin on the altar of race politics as a means to justify the mob violence of Black Lives Matter groups.  The protests (and the hysteria over the pandemic), paid for with hundreds of millions of dollars in NGO funds, brought chaos in the middle of the US election process and Democrats took full advantage of. 

The benefits behind throwing Chauvin to the wolves were many. 

During the trial, the Minneapolis Police Department denied that the specific restraint used by Derek Chauvin.  This denial came directly from MPD leadership.  If Chauvin was simply applying restraint techniques that he was trained by the MPD to use then he cannot be held accountable for any potential ill effects that the technique causes.   

The point is of course moot if the restraint had nothing to do with George Floyd's death. 

In seeking to vacate Chauvin’s conviction, or obtain a new trial, the petition argues that Chauvin “was deprived of his right to due process under the Fourteenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and Article I of the Minnesota Constitution.” 

In speaking about the prosecution - and what he believes was the false testimony of MPD Inspector Katie Blackwell, Chief Medaria Arradondo, and others during Chauvin’s trial - Joseph told Alpha News, “you can only run from the truth for so long.” 

The petition argues that the methods used to examine video footage of George Floyd's restraint and arrest by "expert" witness for the prosecution are at odds with the methods used by the medical examiner, Dr. Andrew Baker, the only doctor who conducted an actual autopsy of Floyd.  It should be noted that Baker did in fact blame the subduing of Floyd as the ultimate cause of death, even though no damage was found to Floyd that would explain the death as a homicide. 

The official autopsy performed by the Hennepin County Medical Examiner found no physical trauma, fractures, or damage to George Floyd's trachea, larynx, hyoid bone, or surrounding throat structures. This included no bruising, lacerations, or other visible injuries in the neck area. The report explicitly noted "no life-threatening injuries identified" to the neck muscles, cartilage, bones, or soft tissues.

The autopsy, instead, said that Floyd died of severe heart disease that was "complicated" by the arrest.  Baker had told the jury "that he had certified deaths due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease under similar conditions." 

Furthermore, Baker found 11 ng/mL of fentanyl in Floyd's toxicology; this is at least twice the amount required for a common deadly dose. He was described by witnesses as erratic and 'extremely impaired', throwing himself around the back of the police vehicle to escape arrest. Even if Floyd was a chronic user, fentanyl is known to exacerbate heart disease. 

It should be noted that no other officer in modern history has been convicted of murder charges for a death that took place during prone restraint.  At most, Chauvin should have faced involuntary manslaughter charges. 

In other words, Derek Chauvin was convicted for the second-degree murder of Floyd because he was in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong suspect. He just happened to be arresting the man (who resisted arrest while he had a heart condition and poison in his veins) using a technique which MPD officers say was a part of Chauvin's training.  The jury was reportedly lied to, and apparently coached to ignore the obvious contradictions.

If this is the case, then it confirms everyone's suspicions:  The trial was a complete clown show - a political farce.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 19:15

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 41 and DOW futures are up 215 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $58.06 per barrel and Brent at $62.56 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $72, and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.07 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.04 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Placing Conditions On Federal Disaster Funds

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on Nov. 21 temporarily blocked the Trump administration from conditioning and withholding federal disaster preparedness funds that were allocated to local governments.

The city landscape of Los Angeles, on Oct. 9, 2025. Mike Blake /Reuters

U.S. District Judge William Orrick in the Northern District of California issued a preliminary injunction in response to a lawsuit filed by a coalition of 29 local governments, which alleged that the conditions tied to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and FEMA funds were unconstitutional.

The administration required local governments to end programs that promote diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and support federal immigration enforcement, or they could risk losing the funds, according to court documents.

In a 76-page ruling, Orrick said the plaintiffs were likely to prevail on their claims that the administration’s conditions were “ambiguous” and violated fundamental principles of constitutional law.

“In short, the EO [executive order] Condition, as it is currently written and applied to the DHS Conditions, is ambiguous. To find otherwise would defy the power of Congress to confer upon agencies the authority to grant funding in the first place,” the judge stated.

Orrick also noted that the plaintiffs’ interests in obtaining the funding to support critical infrastructure and emergency response programs for their communities far outweigh the administration’s interests.

“As indicated above, plaintiffs represent over thirty million individuals, and their DHS and FEMA grants provide funding to support these disaster and public safety initiatives. Many of the plaintiffs would be unable to otherwise fund these programs without grants,” the judge said.

Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, and San Diego were among the plaintiffs that filed suit on Sept. 30 to prevent the administration from imposing what they called “unlawful conditions” on more than $350 million in emergency and disaster preparedness funds.

In a joint statement, San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu welcomed the ruling, saying that withholding emergency and disaster preparedness funds would put public safety at risk.

“This funding means faster emergency response times, stronger regional coordination, and better protection for our residents during disasters and terrorist attacks,” Chiu stated. “We appreciate the Court ruled in our favor and blocked this unlawful overreach.”

Santa Clara County Counsel Tony LoPresti, part of the plaintiffs, praised the judge for recognizing that the administration’s “political agenda” should not influence the funding.

“As local governments, we take our responsibility seriously to protect all members of the community from the ravages of disaster, no matter their politics,” LoPresti said in the statement. “Governments shouldn’t have to pass a political litmus test to be able to care for their communities, especially in the face of a disaster.”

DHS and FEMA did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 15:10

House Votes To Denounce Socialism Despite Widespread Dem Opposition

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bipartisan resolution condemning socialism on Friday. The resolution, introduced about a month ago by Rep. Maria Salazar (R-FL), explicitly denounces socialism in all its forms and rejects the implementation of socialist policies in America. The bill cites "more than 100 million deaths at the hands of socialist governments." Republicans hailed the vote as an easy moral stand against a system that “crushes the human soul.”

While 86 Democrats broke ranks to support the condemnation, 98 Democrats opposed the resolution, which passed 285-98. 

In a 2023 vote, 109 Democrats voted to condemn while 86 voted against it and 14 Democrats voted present. 

This vote came hours before New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, arrived in Washington, D.C., to meet with President Donald Trump for the first time. 

Among the 86 Democrats who supported the measure were 14 congressmembers from New York and New Jersey, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who only endorsed Mamdani in the 11th hour of the mayoral race.

Other New Yorkers who also supported the measure included Rep. Ritchie Torres of the Bronx, Reps. Greg Meeks and Grace Meng of Queens, and Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi of Long Island. Suozzi made a special point of distancing himself from Mamdani during the mayoral campaign.

The measure was also supported by Republican Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, whose mother fled Cuba in 1959. She said her mother left Cuba to avoid what she called "the very things that our new socialist mayor in New York City says he wants." -CBS News

Democrats voting against the resolution included Rep. Maxine Waters of California, who denounced it as a distraction. "I wish we were here on the House floor this morning debating solutions that would reduce grocery bills, lower housing costs, end Trump's tariffs strangling American small businesses and manufacturers, solve the Republican health care crisis, or any legislation that allows Americans to afford [to] live through the catastrophic economic policies of Trump and the Republicans," she said, even though symbolic resolutions are common in the House.

Republicans weren’t buying it.

“100 Democrats just refused to condemn the horrors of socialism,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) said in a post on X. “There were no poison pills in this resolution. There are 100+ socialism sympathizers in the United States House of Representatives. Despicable.”

100 Democrats just refused to condemn the horrors of socialism.

There were no poison pills in this resolution.

There are 100+ socialism sympathizers in the United States House of Representatives.

Despicable. pic.twitter.com/v62W5ZcCtD

— Rep Andy Biggs (@RepAndyBiggsAZ) November 21, 2025

“If you needed proof that the left has gone completely insane, here it is,” Congressman Russell Fry (R-S.C) said. 

Of note, across five votes to denounce socialism since 2009, two were unanimous and three were not - including the aforementioned 2023 vote in which 86 Democrats voted against it.

Mamdani dismissed the resolution as irrelevant when asked about it in the Oval Office.

"I have to be honest with you, I focused very little on resolutions. Frankly, I've been focusing ... on the work at hand," he claimed. "I can tell you, I am someone who is a democratic socialist. I've been very open about that. And I know there might be differences about ideology, but the place of agreement is the work that needs to be done to make New York City affordable. That's what I look forward to."

While some may consider this to be nothing more than an ideological purity test, Mamdani's election - and the results of this vote, clearly indicate the direction of the pendulum.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 14:35