​​​​​​​Strait Of Hormuz Tanker Collision Caused 10 Square-Kilometer Oil Spill

Two crude oil tankers collided and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint, triggering immediate concern across global energy and shipping markets. Iranian naval assets were observed approaching the incident area shortly after the collision, raising the risk of interference. The incident now risks quickly evolving into an ecological disaster. 

Bloomberg cites the Pakistan Navy's new maritime navigation warning issued for the Gulf of Oman around the incident area where Front Eagle, a 1,100-foot supertanker, collided with tanker Adalynn early Tuesday off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, includes the warning of an oil spill covering 10 square kilometers (equivalent to about 2,471.05 acres or the size of a small city). 

The plain English navigation warning reads:

Region:

• Gulf of Oman – NAVAREA IX, which covers the northwest Indian Ocean region, including the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea.
• Charts Referenced: British Admiralty nautical charts BA 2837, 2858, and 3520—used for precise navigation.

Incident:

A collision between two vessels was reported at position Latitude: 25°21.38'N & Longitude: 056°51.62'E (This location is just southeast of the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman).

Environmental Impact:

A visible oil spill covering 10 square kilometers has been observed at the site.

Satellite imagery from a day ago via Tanker Trackers showed Adalynn ablaze and adrift while noting that maritime diesel had leaked from at least one of the vessels. 

Here's footage of Adalynn on fire (view more). 

⚠️ Harrowing images of dark fleet tanker ADALYNN (IMO #9231767) post collision. pic.twitter.com/Y1FUBNNtis

— Ed Finley–Richardson (@ed_fin) June 17, 2025

Latest from Strait of Hormuz:

• Strait of Hormuz Disruption Fears Surge After Former Iranian Minister Threatens Transit Restrictions

A significant ecological disaster could be developing near the critical maritime chokepoint. The extent of the spill remains unconfirmed; however, preliminary maritime alerts indicate a surface oil patch has been detected. Satellite imagery—expected in the near term—will be critical in assessing the true scale of the spill. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 15:45

"Stupid" Powell Does Not Cut Rates (As Expected) Despite 'Diminished Uncertainty', Worse Stagflation

Tl;dr: The Fed held rates flat as expected, which will likely upset Trump even more, amid growing fear of stagflation.

The Fed did not shift its view of (median) rate-cut expectations for 2025 despite calling for higher unemployment, higher inflation, and weaker growth.

But, the distribution of outcomes for 2025 shifted hawkishly... with seven policy members seeing no cuts in 2025 (up from 4)

*  *  *

"We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed, he probably won't cut today," Trump said, hours before the Fed decision urging Powell to cut rates by 2.5 percentage points.

“I call him ‘Too Late Powell’ because he’s always too late,”

“What is wrong with Too Late Powell? Not fair to America, which is ready to blossom? Just let it all happen, it will be a beautiful thing!”

President Trump on Fed Chair Powell: "We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed. He probably won't cut today...Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?" pic.twitter.com/65hq3w47CF

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 18, 2025

Well he's too-late-er now as The Fed decided, as expected, to hold rates flat for yet another month.

Trump wasn't alone as Chris Whalen remarked:

"We need more courage in this country. The Fed is the most cowardly, despicable institution I've ever worked for."

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on May 7th, a lot has happened both macro-economically and geopolitically. Global trade policy uncertainty has tumbled but geopolitical uncertainty has soared...

Source: Bloomberg

This has sent crude oil prices soaring as the dollar ad bonds lost ground. Gold is flat while stocks are up significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

'Hard' data has started to turn down (as 'soft' data reverted higher)...

Source: Bloomberg

Just a reminder...

Some more "facts": the last time US data was this weak the Fed cut 50bps https://t.co/JkpqnlhFm3 pic.twitter.com/7GJOqr93RC

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 18, 2025

But, rate-cut expectations for 2025 have tumbled since the last FOMC meeting (though 2026 expectations are up modestly)

Source: Bloomberg

So, while no one expects The Fed to cut rates today, all eyes will be on the DOTS, the economic projections, and what Powell says (whether he will tilt hawkish)

Rate Decision - No Change but 'Diminished Uncertainty'

As 100% expected, The Fed chose to leave the key Fed Funds rate unchanged: 

• *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE

• *FED: UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS DIMINISHED, STILL ELEVATED

The DOTS shifted Dovishly

Heading into the statement, the market was more dovish than The Fed for 2025 and more hawkish than The Fed for 2027 (in line in 2026)...

Source: Bloomberg

While median 2025 rate cut expectations are the same...

...they see more cuts in 2026 and 2027 than previously.

• 7 Fed officials see no rate cuts at all in 2025 (up from 4 prior)

• 2 Fed officials see 1 rate cut (down from 4)

• 8 Fed officials see 2 rate cuts (down from 9)

• 2 Fed officials see 3 rate cuts (same)

The Fed's economic projections move more stagflationary

• *FOMC MEDIAN 2025 GDP PROJECTION FALLS TO 1.4% FROM 1.7%

• *FOMC MEDIAN 2025 PCE INFLATION RISES TO 3%, CORE RISES TO 3.1%

• *FOMC MEDIAN 2025 UNEMPLOYMENT PROJECTION TICKS UP TO 4.5%

So, The Fed sees worsening unemployment than at the last meeting, worse inflation to come, and worse economic growth... 

BUT, amid all the tariff derangement anxiety by the Fed, the worst they can come up with is core PCE rising to 3.1% by December (from 2.5% now) before tumbling to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1%in 2027

As Bloomberg's Catarina Saraiva noted:

"The inflation forecast of 3% for this year is pretty remarkable given where prices are now.

We’re at 2.1% in the headline PCE, so that would be a substantial reigniting of price pressures.

On the surface, it’s hard to square that forecast with two rate cuts, but clearly Fed officials see it as quite temporary, with inflation dropping back to 2.4% next year and then 2.1% in 2027."

We tend to agree with StanChart's Steve Englander who noted that "the FOMC’s objective at this meeting as expanding the range of possible policy responses while committing to none. "

Read the full red-line below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 15:40

"They Have No Humanity" - Martin Armstrong Slams Neocons "Trying To Drag Trump Into World War III"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Two weeks ago, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was signaling a big turn toward war. 

We all know Ukraine is out of control with no peace deal in sight, and now the Middle East is blowing up too. 

Armstrong says, “I think Trump has been kind of snookered into this..."

"Netanyahu knew he could not get the nuclear.  Now, he says we are losing because they have not been able to achieve that.  So, Netanyahu says President Trump, please go in and attack Iran and eliminate that, which is World War III.

Iran is not by itself.  We have to consider what is going to take place here...  I am concerned this drags in Russia and also China...

You have Zelensky over there conspiring with Britain to use an old Soviet torpedo to sink an American ship so they can blame that on Russia.  You have the same nonsense in the Middle East so they can create a false flag there to say Iran attacked American forces.  They are trying to drag Trump into World War III.  These neocons are horrible people.  They have no humanity, and they do not care about how many people die.”

For anyone hoping this would blow over or not be too severe, forget that.  Socrates, Armstrong’s computer program that is extremely accurate, says this is going to be a long and very bad dream.  Armstrong says:

“Socrates is not showing this is going to be over swiftly and ending.  It is warning that this is going to be more protracted.  On top of that, Iran has supersonic missiles.  They had them before we did.  They claim they domestically developed them, but it’s widely believed Russia helped them.  In addition to that, about 80% of the oil from Iran goes to China.  This, to me, is a classic neocon blunder.”

Things are going to be bad in the US but much worse in Europe. 

Armstrong says:

“If they turn this into a Jihad or holy war, it will go absolutely crazy.  You are going to be looking at civil war in virtually every city.  This is not good.  If you are looking at war that is a dispute over a border or economics, you can come to some sort of negotiation.  You cannot do that when you are talking about a religious war. . .. If you take out the Supreme Leader, you are going to turn this into a religious war.  You are looking at Muslims reacting in Europe and even the United States.  This is s different type of war, and we better damn well respect that.”

Armstrong thinks gold will hit some resistance at around $4,000 per ounce and then go up to $5,000 per ounce.  When that happens, Armstrong says silver will easily hit $50 per ounce and beyond.  Armstrong says oil could hit $115 a barrel sometime in July, and it could go higher from there.

In closing, I asked Armstrong what he would tell President Trump right now.  Armstrong says:

“We are in a war cycle, and it is a contagion. . .. Get the hell out of Ukraine, and get the hell out of the Middle East.”

Armstrong is still strongly recommending getting two years of food.

There is much more in the 63-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong where he gives his analysis on America being dragged into a very long and destructive war for 6.17.25.

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com click here

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 15:25

Mike Lindell Escapes Massive Damages In Dominion Defamation Case

My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell was found liable last week for defamation by a federal Jury in Colorado in a case brought by Dominion voting machine company former security and product strategy director Eric Coomer.  However, the court did not award Coomer his expected damages. 

Lindell and his online media platform, formerly known as Frankspeech, are ordered to pay Coomer $2.3 million, far less than the $62.7 million Coomer had asked for to help send a message to "discourage attacks on election workers". 

The CEO accused Dominion of helping to rig the 2020 elections in favor of Joe Biden and suggested Coomer was a traitor.  Lindell said he would appeal the financial award, asserting that Coomer’s lawyers did not prove Coomer had been harmed. He also said he would continue to speak out about election security, including criticizing the makers of election equipment like Dominion.

“I will not stop talking until we don’t have voting machines in this country..."

The greatly reduced damages came as a surprise to most commentators following the case, with progressives hoping for a scorched earth decision that would make Lindell into a political example.  The legal costs have reportedly sunk Lindell into debt, though he does receive support through crowdfunding and still operates his MyPillow business. 

The lawsuit has similarities to the railroading of Alex Jones and Infowars over charges of Sandy Hook defamation and was part of an avalanche of lawfare executed by Democrats to silence dissent among prominent conservative "conspiracy theorists".  

In the midst of the Democrat war on free speech, absurd punitive damages were levied against political commentators for what amounts to opinions.  Big Tech platforms and social media worked to silence public discourse through censorship, but civil cases were used as a weapon against influential conservative personalities.

While the digital voting issue might have been a smaller part of the overall debate on rigged elections, there has been considerable evidence of information rigging by progressive leaders from 2019 onward.  This includes the censorship of the Biden Laptop story by government officials working directly with media and Big Tech, the censorship of Joe Biden's diminishing mental faculties, the censorship of the Covid lab leak theory which is now widely accepted as legitimate by intelligence agencies, the censorship of information debunking Russiagate claims, censorship of information that debunked claims of "insurrection" on January 6th, etc. 

There was a clear effort to rig the 2020 elections and the 2024 elections by controlling information that could harm the optics of Democrats and the Biden Administration.

Then there is the notorious discrepancy of millions of votes for Joe Biden in the 2020 election vs democrat candidates in all other elections.  There is still no concrete explanation from progressives for the extra votes and where they came from.

Keep in mind, some leftist officials hypocritically argued that the 15 million missing votes in 2024 were due to rigging on the part of the Trump Administration, just as they claimed Trump "stole" the 2016 election.  Democrats rarely get successfully sued for such claims.

The finale of Lindell's civil trial highlights the closure of a dark chapter in American free speech and the rise of lawfare.  Though he was found liable, the dramatic reduction of damages hopefully marks a return to sanity and an end to the use of lawsuits as a tool to destroy prominent conservative figures for going against the establishment narrative.   

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 15:05

Federal Judge Smacks Down AAUP For Undermining Our Democracy

Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

A federal judge on Monday upheld the rule of law and the separation of powers amidst a lawsuit by the American Association of University Professors which sought to undermine the executive branch.

The AAUP, along with the American Federation of Teachers, sued the Trump administration for canceling federal grants to Columbia University over antisemitism concerns. The teachers’ unions were represented by a left-wing group called “Protect Democracy.”

However, the faculty unions should go back to school and learn about the executive branch and the separation of powers, as Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil gave them a lesson on “our democracy.”

The plaintiffs, who are not directly harmed at all by the decision, asked for a preliminary injunction against the funding cuts to Columbia.

Of course no university has a legal right to federal taxpayer dollars. But furthermore, as Judge Vyskocil explained, the unions cannot prove they are directly harmed.

President Trump nominated her to the Southern District of New York federal court in his first term with the backing of Democratic New York Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand.

Judge Vyskocil wrote:

With no apparent sense of irony, lawyers for an organization called ‘Protect Democracy’ insist that a district court judge should order the Executive Branch immediately to restore the flow of taxpayer dollars to an elite university, which funding Defendants represent is inconsistent with the priorities of the duly elected President of the United States. Our democracy cannot very well function if individual judges issue extraordinary relief to every plaintiff who clamors to object to executive action.

She pointed out the plaintiffs have not received the grants themselves from the federal government. Columbia, she notes, can sue, but they are not a plaintiff in this lawsuit.

The judge also ripped into the AAUP and the AFT for their “sensational rhetoric about the ‘transcendent value’ of academic freedom, and ‘the Trump administration’s’ effort to ‘control the thought’ of ‘faculty and students’ (though Plaintiffs do not purport to represent any students) by placing a ‘gun to the head’ of non-party Columbia University.”

The judge furthermore noted Columbia and the Trump administration are in talks to reach an agreement on antisemitism on campus. Yet, the AAUP is “inserting themselves into a quarrel.”

Since taking office, President Trump has sought to restore commonsense to the distribution of hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars. He also is doing what he sees as the best way to protect Jewish students from antisemitic harassment on campus.

While opponents may argue that professors should not have grants taken away for unrelated campus activity, it is proper for the federal government to use the levers of money to effect change.

Thankfully, this judge stood up for “our democracy” against the attacks by the faculty unions to undermine Trump and his authority through the executive branch to pressure Columbia to make changes to protect all students.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 14:45

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He's Not "Stupid"

Having been accused of being "stupid" and "too late", Fed Chair Powell's decision to hold rates (not cut as Trump is demanding), will likely prompt more abuse from The White House, especially as US macro data is significantly weakening.

And despite all the tariff derangement anxiety, the worse they expect is PCE at 3.1% this year before fading back next year...

In fact, Powell may have to explain why he cut rates by 50bps the last time the US Macro Surprise Index was this weak...

Source: Bloomberg

What's different this time?

As Trump said: "I guess he's a political guy..."

Let's see if the reporters in the room are brave enough to ask.

Watch the press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 14:25

​​​​​​​Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Fears Surge After Former Iranian Minister Threatens Transit Restrictions

JPMorgan's forecast of triple-digit Brent crude prices could soon be a reality as conflict risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. The waterway, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, remains one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Any disruption, particularly amid growing military escalation between Iran and Israel, could impact energy flows worldwide and send prices soaring. 

The most concerning sign of potential maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz emerged in the overnight hours via a statement on X by former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi. While unofficial, the timing and seniority of the comment may reflect broader regime sentiment—or serve as a warning of what's to come.

"Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes will be able to pass through the strait without Iran's approval," Khandouzi said. 

He stated, "This policy is decisive if it is implemented "in a timely manner." Any delay in its implementation means enduring more war inside the country. Trump's battle must be ended with a combination of economy and security." 

Such messaging, especially when paired with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval activity in the region, raises the increasing probability of IRGC actions targeting commercial shipping lanes in the strait. This escalation could serve as the catalyst that turns JPMorgan's $120–$130 per barrel Brent crude forecast from a scenario into a market reality.

Some more excerpts from the full JPM note: 

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—the world's busiest oil-shipping channel—would shut down the region's oil trade, supercharging oil prices.

The skinny waterway—at its narrowest point it is only 21 miles (33 km) wide— separating the UAE, Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, and facilitates the movement of some 30% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world's LNG supply (Table 1).

Widespread GPS jamming has been reported across the strait for the last several days:

• Chokepoint Watch: GPS Jamming Impacts Tankers Across Strait Of Hormuz

Which unfolded into a maritime disaster early Tuesday when crude oil tanker Front Eagle slammed into the port quarter of the tanker Adalynn, sparking a massive fire on Adalynn, and concerns about a potential ecological disaster have surged. 

• First View: Oil Tanker Erupts In Flames After Collision Near Strait Of Hormuz

⚠️ Harrowing images of dark fleet tanker ADALYNN (IMO #9231767) post collision. pic.twitter.com/Y1FUBNNtis

— Ed Finley–Richardson (@ed_fin) June 17, 2025

All in all, the world's most critical maritime chokepoint appears to be in the crosshairs of the Iranian regime. On Tuesday, President Trump met with his national security team for over an hour to discuss the Middle East and later held a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The key question now is whether the U.S. will enter the conflict. If it does, a shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is almost guaranteed—setting the stage for global energy markets to be thrown into turmoil.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 14:20

The Brits & Ukrainians Are Plotting To Manipulate Trump Into Escalating Against Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency (SVR) warned that the Brits and Ukrainians are preparing two false flag scenarios in the Baltic Sea.

The first one would see Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes explode near a US ship there and a supposedly malfunctioning one will then be found to implicate Russia in the alleged attack

The second, meanwhile, will involve Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian mines fished out of the Baltic Sea and presented as proof of a Kremlin plot to sabotage international shipping.

These perfidious provocations are being employed to manipulate Trump into escalating against Russia after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in mid-February that the US won’t extend Article 5 mutual defense guarantees to NATO countries’ troops that might deploy to Ukraine. That scenario was the initial one that was planned for getting him to pull out of talks with Putin and then double down on support for Ukraine, but his team preemptively scuttled it through Hegseth’s announcement.

That’s why efforts are now underway to organize a false flag attack against a US ship in the Baltic and/or frame Russia as a threat to international shipping through the fishing out of its mines there. The Baltic has already been a so-called “NATO lake” since even before Finland and Sweden’s joined NATO given their prior shadow membership in the bloc, however, so it’s unrealistic that Russia could really carry out either of these two operations undetected even if it wanted to.

Here are some background briefings:

* 11 March: “Russian Spies Warn That The UK Is Trying To Sabotage Trump’s Envisaged ‘New Détente’”

* 24 March: “Putin’s Senior Aide Patrushev Shared Some Updates About The Arctic & Baltic Fronts”

* 22 April: “Estonia Might Become Europe’s Next Trouble Spot”

* 1 June: “Russia’s Military Build-Up Along The Finnish Border Will Likely Be The New Normal”

* 3 June: “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break”

To summarize, they detail the contextual evolution of this scenario from SVR’s prior warnings of the UK’s intent to sabotage the Russian-US talks on Ukraine to the motives of regional actors (Estonia and Finland) in going along with this, ending with the diplomatic impasse that defines today’s state of affairs. About that, if the US doesn’t coerce Ukraine into the concessions that Russia demands for peace but also doesn’t wash its hands of this conflict, then it might very well double down on its involvement instead.

The reasonable speculation that Trump knew about Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against Russia in advance coupled with the latest speculation that he deceived Iran with duplicitous diplomacy doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in him personally since he could possibly be in on these false flag plots too. Despite Putin’s bonhomie with Trump, which was recently expressed through their most recent call, some in Russia are beginning to suspect Trump of double-dealing.

It’s therefore imperative that he preemptively commit to not escalating against Russia if either of these two false flag scenarios transpire just like Hegseth preemptively averted the deployment of NATO countries’ troops to Ukraine (at least for now) by declaring that Article 5 won’t extend to them. It’s unclear whether Trump read SVR’s warning or if he can rely on his advisors to inform him (unless Putin told already him), however, so he might not even be aware of this and could thus be manipulated.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 13:40

Trump Admin Considers Expanding Travel Restrictions To 36 Additional Countries

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump’s administration is considering substantially expanding travel restrictions to include nationals from 36 countries, adding to existing travel bans on 12 countries.

“The [State] Department has identified 36 countries of concern that might be recommended for full or partial suspension of entry if they do not meet established benchmarks and requirements within 60 days,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an internal memo to American diplomats. A source familiar confirmed the memo, and said that discussions were ongoing.

Those 36 countries being considered, many of which are located in Africa, have been given until June 18 to respond before facing travel sanctions, the source said. These sanctions could include total bans, such as those already instituted on a dozen other countries, or they could include lesser restrictions.

The reasoning, according to the diplomatic memo, was that the countries being considered for a ban have demonstrated “a lack of a competent or cooperative government,” including failing to produce reliable and authentic identity documents and records. Rubio specifically listed “questionable security” around passports from targeted countries.

Some of the countries being considered have also reportedly been uncooperative in working with the federal government to facilitate the return of their nationals in the United States illegally.

The full list of countries being considered for restrictions include Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cote D'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Dominica, Ethiopia, Egypt, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, South Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Tonga, Tuvalu, Uganda, Vanuatu, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The news drew some pushback from critics, who alleged that the list was targeting African countries unfairly.

Tammy Bruce, spokesperson for the State Department, rejected that this was the motive in comments during a June 17 press conference, saying that the primary motive of instituting new restrictions would be “protecting our nation’s citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process.”

“The geo-position, the actual location of the country, is not a factor, or what continent that country is on,” Bruce said. “It’s about very specific aspects about whether or not the United States feels it can trust the information we rely on those countries, for to determine whether or not they'll get a visa.”

Bruce said the administration wants to ensure that the visa adjudication process protects U.S. national security and public safety.

“That is, I think, a very low bar, and is a bar that every nation should be able to adopt to protect the national security and national interests of the United States and its people,” she said.

The government is assessing “other countries’ security capabilities, information sharing and identity management practices, exploitation of the U.S. visa system, such as overstay rates and failure to facilitate the repatriation of their removable nationals.”

The planned restrictions come as other nationals from 19 nations have already been restricted or banned from entering the United States under a June 4 presidential proclamation signed by Trump. That proclamation went into effect on June 9.

Countries currently facing total bans under Trump’s proclamation include Afghanistan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Burma (also known as Myanmar), the Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Seven other countries have partial travel sanctions, including Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

Trump suspended the entry of individuals from those seven countries “as immigrants, and as nonimmigrants,” on B-1, B-2, B-1/B-2, F, M, and J visas, according to the directive. Additional countries will likely face similar restrictions under the administration’s current plans.

The travel ban results from a Jan. 20 executive order that Trump issued requiring the departments of State and Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to compile a report on “hostile attitudes” toward the United States and whether entry from certain countries represented a national security risk.

The African Union Commission expressed concerns at the time about the “potential negative impact” of the move.

“The African Union Commission respectfully calls upon the U.S. administration to consider adopting a more consultative approach and to engage in constructive dialogue with the countries concerned,” the commission said in a statement.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 13:20

Trump Slams "Stupid" Powell: "I Think He Hates Me. I Call Him Every Name In The Book To Try And Get Him To Cut"

Just hours before the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged and, worse, telegraph a hawkish bias by indicating just one rate cut for the rest of 2025 (down from two) in its latest dot plot, the first since Liberation Day, President Trump leveled his latest broadside at Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

With markets and economists widely expecting the Fed to stand pat on rates, Trump acknowledged that, saying: "I don't expect anything" but in his brief remarks at the White House, Trump also wondered aloud if he was "allowed to appoint myself" at the Fed, claiming he'd do a "much better job" than Powell, whom the president appointed in 2018, and whom he slammed as a numbskull in his most recent public comments.

"Am I allowed to appointment myself at the Fed,” he continued. “I’d do a much better job than these people."

“He just refuses to lower rates. I don’t even think he’s political, I think he hates me. He probably should, I call him every name in the book to try and get him to cut" Trump lamented.

President Trump on Fed Chair Powell: "We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed. He probably won't cut today...Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?" pic.twitter.com/AXA9maxJou

— CSPAN (@cspan) June 18, 2025

Trump has frequently targeted Powell's decisions and repeated that he wants the Fed to cut rates, with today going so far as to demand a 2.5% rate cut from Powell (which in typical Trump fashion is more of a negotiating position than an actual ask.)

Responding to a question on Iran, Trump said that it's not too late to strike a ceasefire deal, adding that caveat that "nothing is too late. The only thing too late is Powell. Powell is too late. Too late Powell." 

“I would have never reappointed him. Biden reappointed him. I don’t know why that is. But I guess maybe he was a Democrat,” Trump said Wednesday of Powell, who counts himself a Republican even if his wife is reportedly suffering from a raging case of TDS. 

“You know, I got great advice from Mnuchin on this one,” he said of former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who was the driving force behind Powell’s nomination.

Meanwhile, markets are abuzz with chatter that Trump will announce a replacement for Powell soon, in what would amount to a "shadow" Fed chair. Powell's term runs until May 15, 2026. 

The next Fed chair is widely expected to make an extra effort to bring down interest rates, given how Trump has pushed for that repeatedly. But analysts warn that announcing the pick this summer - an unusually early rollout - could hurt the economy and markets. According to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett has a slight lead on Kevin Warsh in odds for the nomination for next Fed chair.

U.S. stocks were heading higher mid-morning as Wall Street awaited the Fed and monitored the conflict between Iran and Israel.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 13:00

Reports Of Warplanes Seeking To Strike Ayatollah As Israel Has Hit 1,100 Iranian Targets Since Friday

More waves of missiles and strikes were exchanged between Israel and Iran overnight, with Israeli's military announcing that 1,100 Iranian targets were hit since Friday.

The Israeli Air Force affirmed Wednesday that it is currently striking "military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in Tehran." The war shows no signs of abating, and as yet there are no announcements that Iranian and US negotiators plan to meet.

Via Reuters

Despite more waves of Iranian missiles having pummeled Israel in the overnight and early morning hours, Israeli leaders are trying to present normalcy and are telling the population not to panic.

"Alongside intensified combat against Iran to remove threats — we will reopen the economy, gradually release the public, and return Israel to a path of activity and security," Defense Minister Katz said, given schools and public venues have been closed, and airspace shut for days.

On the other side, Iranians say they are living through "a nightmare" after Israel's latest attacks, which involved more than 50 aircraft on Iranian centrifuge and missile production sites overnight.

Hebrew social media accounts are now widely claiming that Israeli jets are going after locations where they believe Ayatollah Khamenei could be hiding. Though is bunker is likely only known to his closest aides...

התקיפות האחרונות בטהרן הן באזור שבו נמצא הבונקר של חמינאי pic.twitter.com/AK48MQR24C

— ישראל היום (@IsraelHayomHeb) June 18, 2025

The Israelis continue going for command and control, nuclear, and vital infrastructure sites. Defense Minister Israel Katz has lately announced Israeli Air Force fighter jets just "destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian regime's internal security, the main arm of the Iranian dictator’s oppression."

"As we promised, we will continue to target symbols of [Iran's] rule and strike the Ayatollah regime wherever it may be," he said.

CNN: Data as of June 17, 2025 at 6:00 p.m. ET. The Institute for the Study of War with AEI’s Critical Threats Project, CNN analysis of social media, International Atomic Energy Agency

But Israeli casualties are mounting, amid immense damage on the ground. According to Israel's Channel 12, "Since the start of the battle last week, Iran has launched approximately 400 ballistic missiles toward Israel, killing 24 people and wounding 840."

In an astounding statement, given the world stands at the brink of a WW3-style broader Mideast conflagration which could burn for weeks or months more, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has praised Israel for doing the "dirty work for all of us" - in reference to the Western allies.

* * *

Below are some of the latest developments in the conflict via Newsquawk:

Geopolitics: Latest

• Iranian Supreme leader to speak shortly, according to ISNA.
• Iranian ambassador to the UN, says, if we come to the conclusion that the US is directly involved in attacks on Iran, we will start responding to the US

US Involvement?

• US officials signalled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible - or if the president might resort to military action instead, according to ABC.
• "Western sources: We have indications that the US will attack Iran soon", according to Kann News.
• US embassy in Jerusalem will be closed Wednesday through Friday, according to the US State Department.
• US President Trump is considering a range of options when it comes to Iran, including a possible US strike on the country, according to multiple officials cited by NBC.
• Israel Channel 12 journalists report US could join the war against Iran Tuesday night, via Faytuks News citing a telegram post.

Strikes Headlines

• Iranian Revolutionary Guards said Iran's Fattah missiles broke through Israeli defences, giving it 'complete domination' over Israeli airspace.
• "Israel's Channel 12: Army attacks Tehran's refineries", according to Al Arabiya.
• Israeli military said it attacked a centrifuge production site and several weapons production sites of the Iranian regime last night.
• IDF Spokesman said the Iranian regime still has great capabilities that allow it to harm them, Al Jazeera reports. They attacked the IRGC headquarters and killed Iran's Chief of Staff. "When we finish our mission, we will announce it and will not allow the existential threat against us to continue".
• Iran has reportedly prepared for strikes on US bases if the US joins the war, according to NYT; Officials suggest that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said The battle has begun, via Al Hadath.
• Iranian state media claimed that tonight (Tuesday night) will "hold a surprise the world will remember for centuries", according to multiple reports.
• "IRGC: Attacks on Israel will continue continuously and gradually", according to Sky News Arabia.

Diplomacy Headlines

• "Source familiar says there are no plans for a meeting this week between Witkoff and Araghchi", according to an Al-Monitor journalist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 11:45

Lutnick Says Nearly 70,000 Have Signed Up For $5 Million 'Trump Card' Investor Visa

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 70,000 people have signed up for the “Trump Card,” a proposed U.S. visa program that would offer legal residency to foreign nationals willing to pay a $5 million fee to the United States, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Lutnick, who’s spearheading the initiative, told the Financial Times on June 17 that 68,703 individuals—and counting—had joined the waiting list via a website launched just a week ago. The Trump Card, which he said “will be made of gold,” prominently features President Donald Trump’s image and the $5 million figure.

The initiative is being pitched as a dual-purpose policy: a strategy to attract high-net-worth business leaders who would live in the United States, create jobs, and pay taxes, and a revenue-generating tool to help reduce the nation’s nearly $37 trillion debt.

“They’ll be wealthy, and they’ll be successful, and they’ll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people, and we think it’s going to be extremely successful,” Trump said in February when he first announced the plan.

Lutnick has suggested that the Trump Card could eventually replace the existing EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, which allows foreigners to apply for a green card by investing at least $1.05 million—or $800,000 in designated high-unemployment or rural areas—and creating at least 10 full-time U.S. jobs.

Aaron Grau, executive director of Invest in the USA (IIUSA), a trade association representing EB-5 stakeholders, described EB-5 as a “proven model” for how targeted immigration policies can strengthen the U.S. economy.

“IIUSA applauds President Trump’s continued focus on investment-based immigration, which has a long record of success,” Grau said in a statement following the launch of the TrumpCard.gov website. “For over 35 years, the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program has delivered billions in foreign direct investment and created millions of American jobs—all at no cost to taxpayers.”

From 2016 to 2019 alone, the EB-5 program generated $184 billion in economic activity and supported 7 million U.S. jobs, according to an IIUSA-commissioned impact study. That same study reported $14.5 billion in combined federal, state, and local tax revenue and found that the average wage of EB-5-supported jobs—$74,000—was 48 percent higher than the national private sector average.

“We appreciate the leadership of President Trump and Secretary Lutnick on this important issue and look forward to continued engagement with the Trump Administration and Congress to enhance the Gold Card’s effectiveness and value to the U.S. economy,” Grau said, referring to the Trump Card.

Lutnick has been critical of the EB-5 program, describing it as “full of nonsense, make-believe, and fraud.”

Meanwhile, questions have been raised about whether the Trump Card can be implemented without congressional approval. Unlike the EB-5 program, which was created by Congress and is featured in the Immigration and Nationality Act, the Trump Card program has not gone through the legislative process.

George Fishman, a senior legal fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, warned in an April blog post that the program may not withstand legal scrutiny.

“Given the Constitution’s grant of all legislative power to Congress, Congress’s plenary power over immigration, and Congress’s very probable supremacy over the Executive Branch in terms of deciding the immigration law of the U.S., it seems unlikely that the gold card program, unless duly enacted into law, would survive Supreme Court scrutiny,” Fishman wrote.

The tax implications of the Trump Card also remain unclear. Trump has made conflicting statements—initially suggesting cardholders would be exempt from U.S. taxes on foreign income, then later implying they would be taxed like other U.S. residents.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 11:25

Biden Judge Blocks Trump's Two Genders On US Passports, But Supreme Court Says 'No' On Trans Treatments For Minors

Autopen-appointed judge Julia Kobick... 

...issued a ruling Tuesday that temporarily blocks the Trump administration from allowing only two genders, male and female, that align with biological sex, on US passports.

Kobick, a US District Court judge for the District of Massachusetts, expanded a preliminary injunction on Tuesday after she ruled in favor of six plaintiffs who identified as transgender or nonbinary in April.

The plaintiffs were challenging a Trump administration rule change that restricted passport sex to align with birth sex, overturning a State Department policy that allowed people to choose the sex displayed on their passport, including an “X” option for individuals who identify as intersex and non-binary. 

Kobick stated in her ruling that the suit against the Trump administration is likely to succeed because in her opinion, it discriminates on the basis of sex, and is "rooted in irrational prejudice toward transgender Americans."

She wrote that "transgender and non-binary people who possess passports bearing sex markers that conflict with their gender identity and expression are… significantly more likely to experience psychological distress, suicidality, harassment, discrimination, and violence." 

In her April ruling, only the six plaintiffs were allowed to receive passports aligning with their gender identity. Tuesday’s ruling expands that order to grant class certification, pausing enforcement of the rule change nationwide, according to the Epoch Times - which notes further: 

The Trump administration is likely to appeal the decision. In the interim, Kobick’s order prevents the State Department from enforcing the administration’s revised rules.

The U.S. has permitted individuals who identify as transgender and intersex to choose a different sex for their passport than their birth sex since 1992, pending submission of medical documentation, until the rules were changed in 2021 under President Joe Biden. The Biden administration allowed people to self-select their passport sex marker based on gender identity, while non-binary, intersex, and other individuals were allowed to select an “X” marker rather than “M” or “F.”

Executive Order 14168, signed by Trump, set guidelines for his administration’s broad policy toward sex and gender issues: “It is the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female,” which “are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.”

Following the executive order, the State Department changed the rules governing passports. Passport sex was restricted by the rule change to align solely with sex assigned at birth, while it removed the “X” passport option entirely.

Leave Those Kids Alone

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court ruled in a 6-3 decision to uphold Tennessee's ban on gender-affirming care for transgender minors, finding that the law doesn't violate the 14th Amendment. 

Screenshot via @adorientem

 The Associated Press characterized the ruling as a "stunning setback to transgender rights." (lol) 

Another 26 states have laws similar to the one in Tennessee. 

In April, the Trump administration sued the state of Maine for refusing to comply with the government's push to ban trans athletes in girls sports. Trump has also sought to block federal spending on gender-affirming care for those under the age of 19 - and instead has advised talk therapy to treat young trannies. 

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has also allowed Trump to kick trans service members out of the military while legal battles play out in lower courts. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 11:05

"Unconditional Surrender!"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

So, no, President Trump didn’t leave the G7 to discuss a Middle-East ceasefire. From the Situation Room, he instead declared: “we” now have total control over Iranian airspace; “we” know where Supreme Leader Khamenei is bunkering down but are not going to kill him (yet); and that Iran must offer its “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

So, is the US going to enter the war despite the risk of possible attacks on its bases? Anonymous claim a false flag attack on US soil perpetrated by what’s clearly implied as Israel looms to drag it into the war: but isn’t the war part obvious(?) Khamanei tweeted from his bunker --presumably not on a new gold Trump phone-- “The Battle begins”, referring to Khaybar, Shia Islam’s conquest of a Saudi Jewish town in 628CE. The unofficial Shah of Iran, abroad, called for an uprising with unsubstantiated claims some of Iran’s military may defect to him, as parts of Tehran were evacuated, Israel hit more military facilities, and some ATM machines stopped functioning. Regime change really can’t be ruled out, it seems: but what then? And who will have control of the nuclear material scattered round the country?

France’s Macron is warning that a violent Iran regime change would trigger ‘chaos’; so would leaving a violent Iran regime in place with a nuclear programme; and so is trying to remove that programme with violence. It’s easy to be a purist and say ‘Non’ to things which one isn’t capable of doing about threats one chooses not to see. It’s not so easy to say, ‘Oui, *quelque chose* doit être fait’ (Yes, *something* must be done.) But what and how?

It's all desperately confusing and extremely worrying. Indeed, it can feel like we are watching ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and ‘Hot Shots’ on twin screens, and ‘V for Vendetta’ and ‘The Dictator’, while humming The Scorpions’ ‘Wind of Change’. As such, some in markets are unconditionally surrendering to the appeal of ignoring this as much as possible; or of ‘maverick’ geopolitical Top Hot Takes that the USA V Iran will see asset prices heat up even further once the Big Gun enters the arena. Both are possible in the short term but overlook that this isn’t a regional but a global issue.

As Bloomberg puts it, ‘Russia Fears for Ally Iran With Few Tools to Influence Crisis’, with memes of Khamenei sitting sadly in a Moscow flat with former Syrian President Assad flowing. Russia loves the thought of higher oil prices and hates the idea of losing an ally in Iran. Even with its resources tied up with Ukraine, agreeing to allow the regime to flee to Moscow would have to be part of a larger geopolitical deal. And if you don’t know what that might mean, it might mean you’re part of it.

In geoeconomics, the Wall Street Journal says, ‘If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price’ as “Chinese refineries have become hooked on cheap imports of sanctioned Iranian crude.” China also may want to have a say: what’s in it for them if Iran sees regime change and the Middle East, and its oil, ends up as a US satrapy?

Or the EU, which just released its latest proposals to wean itself off Russian gas - but not oil. However, that’s just as Qatar --whom it will have to rely on instead-- warned that LNG carriers sailing to it should wait outside the Strait of Hormuz as GPS tracking being jammed has already seen two tankers collide, and its foreign ministry noted everyone is concerned about “uncalculated targeting” of the South Pars gas field.

The EU is also spurning economic dialogue with China due to the latter’s neo-mercantilism: a planned summit in July is now off. Moreover, European Commission President Von der Leyen said at the G7, “On this point, Donald is right - there is a serious problem… [China’s] undercutting intellectual property protections, massive subsidies with the aim to dominate global manufacturing and supply chains. This is not market competition - it is distortion with intent,” and threatens “a new China shock.” So, is the EU going to line up with the US vs. China as the larger threat? If not, what?

That’s as ECB President Lagarde spoke of a “global euro moment.” No, not more countries watching their camp Song Contest --where Israel was also a story this year-- but EUR gaining ground on the USD as a global reserve asset. Yet that’s at a time when European powerlessness vis-à-vis the US could not be more amply demonstrated across multiple realpolitik dimensions from military to energy to tech to banking. (And as UK PM Starmer is reportedly going to meet NATO defence spending targets by counting rural broadband as such. “We” feel safer already.)

Indeed, while Bloomberg notes ‘Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Imperilling the Dollar’s Reign’ it’s others’ physical reigns in question due to US hard power. If markets are too blind to see that truth, “because markets”, and think somehow, they sit above that dynamic, not below it, then I’m not sure what function they play anymore – with emphasis on the word ‘play’.

The same can be said about fudging defense spending figures to please markets who think pure economic policy targets actually still matter. Go ahead: just don’t be surprised if you turn out to be more of an Iran and less of an Israel if/when push ever comes to shove.

Notably, Lagarde’s call also implies Europe must produce more financial assets and less physical stuff – as if that helps it in the present geopolitical circumstances. On cue(?), the EU is to resurrect securitisation banking practices that helped cause the 2008 global financial crisis. Then again, ‘US Plans to Ease Capital Rule Limiting Banks’ Treasury Trades’, where Bloomberg notes: “The revisions aim to bolster banks' roles as intermediaries in the market, but some experts argue that easing the leverage ratio may not encourage banks to buy more Treasuries and could make the financial system more fragile.” But if this all goes wrong, who will need whose swap lines as part of a bailout? I’m asking for a friend who may or may not be in a bunker.

True, Bloomberg also ran a story saying some exporters to the US don’t want to receive dollars: so, don’t sell to the US then, which is how the current and capital accounts link up; or get the dollars and sell them to someone else. There is no sign of an unconditional dollar surrender here really.

In politics, the US Supreme Court will also get to look at Trump tariffs at some point later this year – who doesn’t, it seems? Moreover, the White House may ban pharma firms from TV advertising, with a huge impact on both, and the FBI is alluding to attempted Chinese election interference in 2020. Not a dull moment.

But it’s the Fed today, where their usual whisperer Nick Timiraos is tweeting that they would be thinking about cutting already if not for their concern over the known unknowns of tariffs, which have not shown any real impact on CPI so far. Yet what about the unknown unknowns of geopolitics? Will the Fed today mark an unconditional surrender to that hard exogenous reality or continue to fight and die on the hill that it has nothing to do with them at all… and that they have nothing to do with it, when actually they ?

I would wager most of the money will be on the latter, who coincidentally think the same way – for now. After all it’s not until 2026 that they must face up to that ugly reality, unless we get a Shadow Fed Chair appointed earlier. Plenty of time to go risk on and ignore the world around them and their now subordinate position within it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 10:50

WTI Tumbles On Trump Iran Comments, Despite Massive Crude Inventory Draw

Crude prices are down modestly this morning despite ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel and API reporting a major crude draw overnight as President Trump said Iran has reached out and wants to negotiate.

When asked about possible Iran strikes, Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

Meantime, Trump also said he told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “keep going.”

So geopolitical risk premia are far from over.

Additionally, Russian flows rose only very marginally in the last four weeks, limiting downward price pressures.

API

• Crude -10.133mm  (-600k exp)

• Cushing -800k

• Gasoline -202k

• Distillates +318k

DOE

• Crude -11.47mm (-600k exp, -2.8mm Whisper) - biggest build since June 2024

• Cushing -995k

• Gasoline +209k

• Distillates +514k

The offoicial data confirmed API's with a huge crude drawdown (the biggest since June 2024). We also saw a third straight week of product builds...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the plungng rig count, US crude production remains near record highs (for now)...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tumbled ahead of the official data on Trump's comments on Iran seeking peace.. bounced very briefly on the huge crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

...but the main driver for prices right now continues to be the potential for Israel-Iran war escalations. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 10:40

Meta Floated "Giant" $100 Million Offer To Poach OpenAI Team As AI Talent Wars Heat Up

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, speaking on the Uncapped podcast hosted by his brother Jack Altman, revealed that Meta made aggressive attempts to poach top OpenAI talent, offering signing bonuses as high as $100 million and massive compensation packages.

Meta "started making these like giant offers to uh you know a lot of people on our team um you know like $100 million signing bonuses more than that comp per year," Altman told his brother. 

Sam continued, "It is crazy. I'm really happy that at least so far none of our best people have decided to take them up on that." 

"I think that people sort of look at the two paths and say all right OpenAI's got a really good shot - and much better shot at actually delivering on super intelligence - and may eventually be the more valuable company. But I think the strategy of a ton of upfront guaranteed comp and that being the reason you tell someone to join, like really the degree to which they're focusing on that and not the work and not the mission. I don't think that's going to set up a great culture," the chatbot CEO pointed out. 

Meta's aggressive push to lure top OpenAI talent comes as Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg spearheaded the social media company's push into "superintelligence" AI by acquiring a 49% stake in Scale AI for $14.3 billion. Scale AI's founder, Alexandr Wang, will lead a new research lab under Meta. 

Last week, Bloomberg reported that Meta poached Jack Rae, a principal researcher at Google DeepMind, to join Zuckerberg's superintelligence AI quest. 

All of this underscores one key reality: there are only a handful of individuals on the planet capable of executing large-scale AI training. As a result, Big Tech is offering staggering upfront compensation deals to secure this rare talent—fueling an intensifying poaching war across Silicon Valley, with AI set to dominate the talent battlefield for years to come. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 09:30

 

Fun conversation with Jill Schlesinger of Jill on Money about the new book:

Today we’re joined by Barry Ritholtz, co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, to discuss his recently released book, How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.

The goal of the book is to show you a few simple tools and models that will help you avoid the most common mistakes people make with their money.

Learn these, and you are ahead of 98% of your peers. Make fewer errors, end up with more money.

 

If you somehow missed it, you can learn more about How Not to Invest here.

~~~

Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠Jill on Money Newsletter⁠⁠⁠

YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@jillonmoney⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@jillonmoney⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@jillonmoney⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

 



 

 

 

The post Jill on Money: How Not To Invest appeared first on The Big Picture.

Why Some LA Biz Owners Want To Leave Because Of The Riots, But Can't

As unrest once again disrupts parts of Los Angeles, many small business owners are asking a painful question: should we leave California?

For some, the answer is yes. But for a growing number, the real problem is they can’t.

According to a February 2024 survey of 80,000 small business owners by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, only 13% of California small businesses say they’re happy with their current location — nearly 40% lower than the national average. Nationally, almost half (47.7%) of business owners report being satisfied and having no plans to relocate.

In California, however, 67% say they are either planning a move (10%), considering one (30%), or feel stuck — wanting to move but unable to afford it (27%).

“Nearly a third of small businesses feel they’re stuck in Hotel California, where they can check out anytime they like, but they can never leave,” said RedBalloon CEO Andrew Crapuchettes. “California used to be the engine of small businesses in America, but those still California dreaming are finding it’s become a nightmare – 67% want to escape.”

The reasons behind this discontent are no mystery. Among California business owners, 86.4% cite high taxes as a driving factor, while 84.9% blame anti-business government policies. Nationally, these same issues rank high, but not nearly to the same extent — 64.5% and 59.4%, respectively.

Still, as businesses clean up broken glass and rebuild yet again, relocation is often a luxury. Many can't sell their property at a decent price, relocate employees, or find affordable alternatives elsewhere. For the 27% who say they feel “trapped,” economic and logistical realities outweigh the dream of a more business-friendly home.

And so, many stay — not because they want to, but because they have to.

The weather may still be nice, but for California’s small business owners, the climate is anything but.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 06:55

Why Some LA Biz Owners Want To Leave Because Of The Riots, But Can't

As unrest once again disrupts parts of Los Angeles, many small business owners are asking a painful question: should we leave California?

For some, the answer is yes. But for a growing number, the real problem is they can’t.

According to a February 2024 survey of 80,000 small business owners by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, only 13% of California small businesses say they’re happy with their current location — nearly 40% lower than the national average. Nationally, almost half (47.7%) of business owners report being satisfied and having no plans to relocate.

In California, however, 67% say they are either planning a move (10%), considering one (30%), or feel stuck — wanting to move but unable to afford it (27%).

“Nearly a third of small businesses feel they’re stuck in Hotel California, where they can check out anytime they like, but they can never leave,” said RedBalloon CEO Andrew Crapuchettes. “California used to be the engine of small businesses in America, but those still California dreaming are finding it’s become a nightmare – 67% want to escape.”

The reasons behind this discontent are no mystery. Among California business owners, 86.4% cite high taxes as a driving factor, while 84.9% blame anti-business government policies. Nationally, these same issues rank high, but not nearly to the same extent — 64.5% and 59.4%, respectively.

Still, as businesses clean up broken glass and rebuild yet again, relocation is often a luxury. Many can't sell their property at a decent price, relocate employees, or find affordable alternatives elsewhere. For the 27% who say they feel “trapped,” economic and logistical realities outweigh the dream of a more business-friendly home.

And so, many stay — not because they want to, but because they have to.

The weather may still be nice, but for California’s small business owners, the climate is anything but.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 06:55

Why Have Any COVID-19 Vaccines, 2025?

Authored by Randall Bock via The Brownstone Institute,

Five years on, SARS–CoV–2 is a ghost.

It’s not the beast it was (or was purported to be); yet (as of this last “flu season”) young medical students were still required to get the “jab.”

This reads more as LOYALTY– rather than Covid–testing.

The current iteration of coronavirus, Omicron, LP.8.1–feels like a cold now, nothing more – moreover, its epitope is not even included in the “bivalent” Covid vaccine handed out, 2025. 

Prior to 2003’s SARS, coronaviruses were just that: colds, the kind you shook off with soup and sleep.

No one demanded shots. No one cared. So why are we still doing this? The numbers, the past, the plain truth say it’s hollow—a rule for the sake of rules.

Back in 2020, the virus (or the overreaction to it) hit like a storm.

Hospitals were packed. People died–350,000 in the US, mostly old, mostly sick – either “from” or “with” coronavirus.

Kids? They were fine.

The American Academy of Pediatrics counted 112 deaths under 18 by December—0.005% of cases; however, those children had problems: diabetes, obesity, and bad lungs. Healthy ones sneezed and moved on. Medical students, in their 20s, were close behind. The CDC pegged that age group’s mortality rate at 0.02%–1,200 out of 6 million cases. Two percent landed in hospitals; near zero needed ICUs. There was no real danger for them, 2020 – and beyond.

Now it’s 2025. The virus hasn’t vanished, but it’s weak. Immunity—from shots, or from previously having contracted one or another of the Covid variant strains–covers essentially everyone.

The current Omicron virus is no monster.

It’s a nuisance– moreover, it’s likely conflated with background “common cold” coronavirus.

Omicron showed up in 2021, spread like crazy, but didn’t hit hard. My 2022 piece “Is it Time to Accept That Omicron is not COVID-19?” noted it was not even genomically and offspring of Covid-19—just another coronavirus, like the ones that give you a runny nose.

The current version is much weaker.

So what’s the reason for medical students’ “booster” mandates’ continuation?

The shots aren’t harmless.

Myocarditis hits young guys–1–10 per 100,000 mRNA doses, says a 2022 JAMA study. Medical schools, in particular, should know better. They should move away from anachronistic, lockstep, doctrinaire mandates.

In February 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order prohibiting federal funding for educational institutions that mandate Covid–19 vaccines for in–person attendance. Medical schools reliant on federal funds may reconsider these pointless mandates, paeans to outdated orthodoxy.

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/18/2025 - 05:00