Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2025

VDH: The Murder Of Charlie Kirk Was Not A 'George Floyd Moment'

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Just days after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the left is working overtime to hide the truth and create fantasies about his death.

Specifically, leftists alleged that conservatives were going to “pounce” on the death to wage protests and boost radical agendas in the manner of what followed George Floyd’s death.

Here are some of the lies that such a ridiculous narrative entails.

One, Charlie Kirk is not conservatives’ George Floyd. There were no mass riots after his death of the sort that followed Floyd’s demise.

Floyd’s death was used by the left to justify five months of rioting, arson, murder, looting, and attacking police officers.

The postmortem respect for Kirk’s singular life was not characterized by $2 billion in property damage, the torching of a police precinct, a federal courthouse, and an iconic church, 35 deaths, and 1,500 injured law-enforcement officers.

Instead, thousands of people peacefully joined his Turning Point USA organization and promised to redirect their lives toward peaceful political engagement.

Two, after Kirk’s death, no prominent Republican or conservative is encouraging ongoing mass (and often violent) protests in the manner of high-profile leftists like Kamala Harris.

She blurted out on national television in June 2020, “But they’re not gonna stop. They’re not gonna stop, and this is a movement, I’m telling you. They’re not gonna stop, and everyone beware, because they’re not gonna stop. They’re not gonna stop before Election Day in November, and they’re not gonna stop after Election Day. Everyone should take note of that, on both levels, that they’re not going to let up—and they should not. And we should not.”

No conservatives—like the spouse of Governor Tim Walz—declared of the 2020 arsons, “I could smell the burning tires, and that was a very real thing. I kept the windows open as long as I could because I felt like that was such a touchstone of what was happening.”

Instead, Kirk’s supporters are calling on everyone to express their anger peacefully at the ballot box by registering to vote and showing up for the 2026 midterms.

Three, Charles Kirk was not George Floyd. He was a law-abiding, religiously devout, political organizer, happily married with two children. Kirk was a media figure and head of a huge 501(c)(3) nonprofit whose brand was calmly debating students who disagreed with him.

Floyd should not have died while in police custody. But Floyd’s comorbidities were many. When arrested, he was under the influence of fentanyl and methamphetamine, with a heart condition and recent Covid infection.

He was a career felon, with eight previous criminal convictions, who had in the past staged a violent home-invasion robbery and pointed a knife at the abdomen of one of the female occupants.

In contrast, when Kirk was killed, he was not on drugs. He was not resisting police officers. And he was not trying to pass counterfeit currency. Instead, he eschewed violence and tried to engage in polite dialogue with students of different views.

Four, Kirk was not, as alleged by the left, murdered by a right-wing shooter. His death was not an example of right-on-right violence. Just the opposite was true. The shooter, Tyler Robinson, was on record with his family expressing hatred for the conservative Kirk.

Robinson engraved his bullets with both Antifa-like “anti-fascist” messaging and transgender references.

He lived with his transgender partner, who was a leftist. Robinson’s aim was to end Kirk’s peaceful conservative career because he hated his politics and popularity and feared his influence.

Five, the left used the death of Floyd to promote its hard-left and otherwise unpopular agenda—defunding the police, cashless bail, decriminalization of theft, and DEI mandates.

It manipulated outrage, chaos, and months-long violence to ram through radical cultural and top-down legal changes that otherwise had little popular support.

Conservatives upset over Kirk’s murder will bolster Turning Point USA. They are determined through peaceful means to persuade more youth about the poverty and dangers of progressive thought.

Why is the left fabricating the circumstances surrounding and following Kirk’s murder?

In its signature projective style, the left is terrified that the right might follow its own example—by manipulating facts, ginning up street violence, and issuing non-negotiable demands to achieve its agenda.

But the chief difference between the Kirk assassination and the death of Floyd is that the post-Floyd agenda had no majority support and so had to be rammed through in hysterical times by implied threats of unending violence beyond five months of continued mayhem.

The post-Kirk agenda eschewed violence because it was both morally wrong and politically counterproductive—since most Americans naturally favored most of what Kirk championed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 16:20

The Moral Decay Of Debt

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Debt has moral implications, and in denying this, we're choosing a rendezvous with Nemesis

Let's start with a household analogy. A married couple have four fine children, and since expenses are higher than income, they borrow money in their children's names to fund their lifestyle and investments. Once the offspring reach 18 years of age, the debt their parents borrowed is theirs to service.

The offspring didn't get a say in how much money was borrowed or how it was spent, but the debt is now theirs to service (i.e. pay the interest) for their entire lifetimes, as the debt is simply too large to pay off with conventional wages.

The economy changed, and since wages don't go as far and costs keep rising, the four offspring borrow in their own children's names to afford the basics of a middle-class life.

The parents are now comfortably retired, drawing on their investments bought with borrowed money. The two generations behind them are now debt-serfs who funded their own lifestyles by borrowing even more money. Since the kind of house their parents bought for 3-times-income is now 6-times-income, the debt required to own a house and fund what is considered the minimum middle-class entitlements is multiples of their parents' borrowing.

Is anyone willing to call this offloading of ever-expanding debt onto future generations wrong, as in morally wrong, or have we lost the vocabulary and ability to declare the offloading of debt as morally disgraceful, a line that should never have been crossed?

Debt that cannot be extinguished and that is offloaded onto future generations is a manifestation of moral decay, a decay of the moral foundations of the economy and society that is terminal.

So here we are, cheering on a big reduction in the Fed Funds Rate to encourage an expansion of debt, as more debt means more spending and that means more taxes and corporate profits. The manipulation of interest rates and the financial machinery to encourage more debt is viewed as bloodless, absolutely devoid of moral judgment: when it comes to "growth" of asset prices, spending, taxes and profits, there is no wrong, as "growth" is the only good anyone cares about.

This is the perfection of moral decay. Offloading debt onto future generations--money borrowed to prop up a self-serving status quo that focused on expediencies, not future consequences--and then telling the debt-enslaved generations, "we'll inflate away the debt, and your wages will buy less and less, but no worries, we'll just borrow more to pay the interest due"--how is this not morally repulsive?

Here is Federal debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is a better measure of consequences, for it illustrates the Federal government's ability to counter a deep recession by borrowing and spending trillions of dollars is now limited by extreme debt levels.

Those who track the history of government debt generally draw the red-line at 100% of GDP, so 120% is already deep in the danger zone. History is rather decisive: any attempt to add trillions in additional debt at these levels has zero chance of working as intended, i.e. a pain-free way to boost "growth."

Note the debt-to-GDP ratio actually declined during both the stagflationary 1970s and the 1990s Internet boom. In both eras, the economy was still largely organic, i.e. unmanipulated enough that natural forces (supply, demand, risk aversion, writedowns of bad debt, etc.) could work through excesses of speculation and debt and restore not just balance sheets but legitimacy.

The Federal Reserve no longer trusted the system's self-correcting capacity and leaped into full-blown manipulation of financial and mortgage markets in 2008-09. The debt-to-FDP ratio soared from 60% to 100% in the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) "save" of the Federal Reserve, which inflated the money supply and pushed ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing) to boost borrowing.

As a result, private-sector borrowing also skyrocketed. Now that households and enterprises have borrowed up to their capacity to service debt, their ability to "borrow their way to prosperity" is also constrained.

Here is total debt, public and private (TCMDO). In Q2 1975, total debt was $2.5 trillion. If this had tracked inflation, it would have reached $15 trillion by Q2 2025. ($1 in Q2 1975 is $6 in Q2 2025.) (BLS Inflation Calculator)

Let's say that debt can double the rate of inflation if it's being invested productively. That would put today's total debt at $30 trillion.

But total debt isn't close to $30 trillion; it's $104 trillion and climbing, suggesting 70+ trillion is "excess debt." As for all this borrowed money being invested productively--given "waste is growth" planned obsolescence and rampant asset appreciation / speculation, it seems obvious that most of this borrowed money was consumed by ephemeral products and services or squandered chasing asset bubbles.

Debt has implicit moral implications, and in denying this, we're choosing a rendezvous with Nemesis--a rendezvous with Destiny that will be arranged by Nemesis, not the Federal Reserve or the Treasury.

Yes, debt can be productive, but it can also be exploitive, and therein lies the moral implications. Debt can never be amoral or bloodless; its moral nature cannot be extinguished. We appear to be destined to discover this truth the hard way.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 15:25

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 September

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 September. ...

7-13 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.4% (-1.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.71 (+0.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$106.43 (-1.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Escape From New York, 2025 Millionaire Edition

Authored by Peter C. Earle via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),

For decades, New York City prided itself on being the financial capital of the world. It’s a place where money, culture, and power converge. And yet, as has been seen in San Francisco, Chicago, and other locations around the United States, New York is experiencing a steady exodus of millionaires and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. While some observers dismiss this as anecdotal or exaggerated, the facts paint a different picture: one with serious implications for the city’s fiscal health, social fabric, and attractiveness.

It is easy to forget that New York’s gleaming infrastructure, vast public services, and social programs are underwritten disproportionately by a tiny number of residents. Fewer than one percent of taxpayers account for more than 40 percent of all income tax revenue collected in the state, and a similar share in the city. Without those individuals, the ability of millions of ordinary New Yorkers to enjoy subsidized transit, robust public safety services, and cultural investments would collapse. In other words, and despite endless egalitarian rhetoric, the lifestyle of the masses is silently carried on the shoulders of the few.

The scale of the loss is becoming visible. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of New Yorkers earning between $150,000 and $750,000 fell by nearly six percent, while the number of true high earners—those making over $750,000—dropped by nearly 10 percent, according to the city’s Independent Budget Office. This erosion matters because the city’s top one percent—about 41,000 filers—pay more than 40 percent of all income taxes. The top 10 percent pay about two-thirds. Which means the remaining 90 percent of taxpayers contribute only about one-third of the city’s income tax revenue. When even a small share of these high earners disappears, the impact is seismic.

Recent migration trends confirm the damage. More than 125,000 New Yorkers have fled to Florida in just the past few years, carrying nearly $14 billion worth of income with them, according to the Citizens Budget Commission. About a third of those movers—more than 41,000 people—went to Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward Counties between 2018 and 2022. Those escapes alone stripped New York City of an estimated $10 billion in adjusted gross income. When money and mobility align, no amount of political rhetoric can stop people from voting with their feet.

Into this fragile situation steps Zohran Mamdani, whose mayoral primary victory has been accompanied by a platform that includes a new “millionaire’s tax.”

His proposal would tack on an additional two-percent levy for New Yorkers earning more than $1 million a year, raising the combined city and state top rate to 16.776 percent—by far the highest in the nation.

Add federal obligations, and the total burden would rise to nearly 54 percent. That is not just taxation; it is confiscation.

Wealthy New Yorkers wouldn’t even need to flee to Florida to avoid it. A short move to Westchester, Long Island, or across the Hudson to New Jersey would suffice. As the Tax Foundation has noted, “a high earner doesn’t need to give up the convenience of the city, they just need to move outside the five boroughs.” Developers are already banding together to oppose Mamdani’s rent-control platform, while Florida realtors report a surge in inquiries from wealthy New Yorkers looking to relocate.

Rather than acknowledge this delicate balance, policymakers in Albany and City Hall continue to treat the wealthy as inexhaustible resources. Each subsequent budget cycle seems to bring fresh proposals for higher levies, justified by a reflexive invocation of “fair share.” For the city’s most mobile taxpayers, however, there is a limit. They are increasingly concluding that enough is enough.

Not to worry, though. Other U.S. states and cities are only too happy to receive them.

Florida has no state income tax and a climate that, quite literally, feels like a bonus. Texas markets itself as a business-friendly, family-friendly destination where capital is welcomed rather than penalized. The Lone Star State is even planning its own stock exchange to fight against corporate ESG/DEI mandates, among others. Even Connecticut, once derided as a commuter’s backwater, now makes a pitch as a calmer, lower-tax alternative just a train ride away.

It’s not just states.

Municipalities from Miami to Austin to Nashville are creating entire ecosystems—schools, cultural centers, financial services clusters—designed to attract, satisfy, and retain disaffected New Yorkers. And the migration data show that these efforts are paying off.

The most striking irony of this government-greed-driven exodus is that the very policies promoted as remedies for inequality are accelerating a new divide. On one side are jurisdictions with extractive tax regimes like New York, which are increasingly reliant on a shrinking base of wealthy residents. On the other side are “merely high-tax” or moderate-tax states that calibrate their revenue needs without driving out their most productive citizens. In attempting to punish the “haves” in the name of the “have-nots,” New York is in the process of creating an even sharper divide between places where the wealthy live and places they have left behind. The intended redistribution becomes a geographic one, with capital, philanthropy, and jobs following the departing millionaires.

Beyond dollars and cents, there is also a cultural cost. Wealthy New Yorkers are not just taxpayers; they are patrons of the arts, benefactors of hospitals, and funders of civic institutions. When they decamp to Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Wyoming, or elsewhere, they don’t merely take their checkbooks; they take their boards, galas, and fundraising networks. The very character of New York as a city of ambition progressively dims. A city that once attracted the world’s best and brightest risks becoming a place they leave once they have achieved the successes they sought.

The migration of millionaires is not an abstract threat. It is an early warning sign of the consequences of fiscal imbalance and political avarice. New York can continue to chase headlines with promises of soaking the rich, or it can recognize that prosperity depends on partnership, not punishment. If it chooses the former, the flight will only accelerate, and the city may wake up one day to find that its most valuable export is no longer finance or culture, but people.

Wealth, like love, does not stay long where it goes unappreciated.

*  *  * speaking of love *  *  *

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 14:45

Subprime Crisis 2.0? Red Flags Fly As Alleged Fraud Triggers Billion-Dollar Auto-Lender Bankruptcy

Did a medium-sized canary just croak in the coalmine of consumer credit?

While the world and his pet rabbit was avidly glued to the screens, hanging on every word from Fed Chair Powell, something happened in a name that few have likely heard of that could have a much greater impact on markets.

After seeing its bonds rise week after week, seemingly amid confidence in the US consumer (especially at the lowest incomes)...

...prices for the almost $2 billion of debt behind subprime auto-lender Tricolor Holdings suddenly collapsed yesterday, leaving creditors across the US scrambling to stake their claim on the company’s remaining assets and contain their losses...

As Bloomberg reports, the details behind the collapse of Tricolor remain uncertain, with federal investigators looking into possible fraud and banks exploring whether the same collateral was pledged to multiple lenders.

In Dallas, the regional bank Triumph Financial Inc. has dispatched teams of employees to used-car lots, where they’re identifying and whisking away to safe locations the vehicles they believe are the collateral to their loans.

In midtown Manhattan, a boutique investment firm that built a position in Tricolor’s asset-backed bonds, Clear Haven Capital Management, has been calling other bondholders, urging them to band together and fight to keep the big banks away from the assets that belong to them.

Those banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Fifth Third Bancorp, have begun to forensically examine their own collateral to try to ascertain the magnitude of the losses.

This is part of what’s fueling the frantic rush - the sense that many of the details behind the collapse of Tricolor, a provider of high-interest car loans to undocumented workers, remain murky even a week after its bankruptcy filing.

Prominent among them: Was there fraud, as federal investigators are now looking into, and how prevalent was it?

“Everyone is in the dark as to how serious these allegations of fraud are, so bondholders and lenders are rushing to protect their interests,” said Boris Peresechensky, a portfolio manager at Orange Investment Advisors.

Two other big subprime auto lenders that declared bankruptcy in recent years — American Car Center and US Auto Sales — ended up costing some junior bondholders dearly, said Peresechensky.

Signs are emerging that it may have been widespread. Banks are exploring whether the same collateral was pledged to multiple lenders.

Bloomberg reports that people familiar with the probes say the suspected manipulation stretches back months, possibly longer.

Earlier this week, holders of Tricolor’s asset-backed bonds didn’t receive some scheduled payments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

They also didn’t get a remittance report - the regular statement detailing cash collected from borrowers and how it’s distributed — the people said.

Tricolor opted to liquidate in bankruptcy rather than attempt a reorganization amid concerns over litigation risk and signs there weren’t enough assets to restructure, according to a person familiar with the decision.

The company listed more than 25,000 creditors, vendors and other affected parties in its bankruptcy filing.

The bottom line is a major (subprime) auto-lender just hit the wall in epic fashion (out of nowhere) as the Emperor's clothes narrative of the so-called "strong consumer" (spending was solid in aggregate) were suddenly exposed as more evidence of the K-shaped economy Americans are living in (haves and have-nots) and the divergence is getting wider.

If collateral-backed subprime auto-lenders are collapsing, how long before default rates on Buy-Now, Pay-Later entities start to soar?

The Bear Traps Report's Larry McDonald recently noted that BDCs and Private Credit entities are starting to creak - with some sizable names trading well off recent highs. While the driver for much of that pain appears to be AI data-center over-spend, contagion from these archaic credit assets (from subprime auto to BNPL) into the mainstream is not something anyone wants to experience again.

A Reckoning?

As The Wall Street Journal noted earlier in the week, many young people borrowed to buy cars during the pandemic when they didn’t have to make student loan payments. Now they are struggling to repay both.

Auto delinquencies and car repossessions are getting closer to 2009 recession levels.

Yet investors have continued to snap up subprime auto debt.

The Fed cut interest rates this week, even though current financial-market conditions suggest that monetary policy isn’t all that restrictive.

Companies with low credit ratings issued a record amount of debt this summer as they sought to take advantage of high investor demand and shrinking risk premiums.

There’s always a reckoning after periods of easy money, and the question is whether Tricolor is an outlier or a harbinger.

Is Tricolor Holdings the June 2007 Bear Stearns Structured-Credit Fund of 2025?

*  *  *

Up to 20% off with volume & subscription discounts Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 14:25

Welcome To Big Brother's Digital Prison, Part I: Central Bank Digital Currencies

Authored by Robert Williams via The Gatestone Institute,

Globalist leaders are working at full speed to introduce central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). A CBDC is a digital currency that is issued directly by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve in the US, the European Central Bank in the EU's eurozone, and the Bank of England in the UK.

A CBDC will be the final straw that ensures that every dream of suppression and control that the globalists nurture will come true. Several of those dreams are already a reality, including shutting down dissent and free speech, as in Europe, where people are routinely fined and arrested for saying things their governments do not like. A host of other controlling measures are already in the works, including herding people into "15-minute cities" where it is easier to monitor them, keep tabs on their use of private cars, decide what they can and cannot eat – ideally "ecologically preferable" bugs and lab-grown meat, no beef or cheese -- track their "carbon footprints", determine where and how they can travel, oversee their vaccines and so on.

The Oxford-educated, German economist Richard A. Werner said in an interview last year.

"The push for CBDCs is the final step in a multi-decade program by central planners to increase their power over the people and over countries. This is the ultimate step because the powers of CBDCs are so extraordinary that, I mean, even the worst dictators of past centuries could only have dreamt of having such enormous power over the lives of so many people.

"We are talking about a very dystopian future if we allow central banks to issue central bank digital currencies. You know, even if the original designers and heads of central banks who are launching this are super well-meaning, you know, let's give them the benefit of the doubt, we just know what human nature is like and history is the best guide...

"I think the power would be abused, if not by the original generation of launchers, then by the next generation.... It will be a completely totalitarian system of such frightening proportions, it's hard to imagine...

"The micromanaging decision [about your spending] will then be automated and... you have no right to appeal the algorithm... You just won't be able to use your money for certain things and then there is nothing that you can do... That by definition ends freedom....

"Dictators like Stalin and other dictators, they could only have dreamt of, you know, the enormous power that central bank digital currencies give to central planners... We are talking about dystopian digital prisons that will be created through central bank digital currencies, because the programmability – and this has been mentioned in the studies by the central banks – include of course geography, and there is this proposal for climate change, whatever reasons, that people... should stay within their 15-minute walking small local area... and there will be digital controls... when you walk with all your RFID chips in your cards and your CBDC anyway, of course you will be immediately recognized if you're out of the area and you will be punished. It's a digital prison."

CBDCs will indeed be "programmable": In 2021, the Bank of England asked for ministers to have the final word on whether a central bank digital currency should be "programmable", meaning that the central bank would have a veto over how people would spend their money, the Telegraph reported:

"Tom Mutton, a director at the Bank of England, said during a conference on Monday that programming could become a key feature of any future central bank digital currency, in which the money would be programmed to be released only when something happened."

According to Mutton:

"There could be some socially beneficial outcomes from that, preventing activity which is seen to be socially harmful in some way. But at the same time it could be a restriction on people's freedoms. That is a really delicate debate that needs to be had. It is not something we can settle ourselves, that is for the Government to lead on."

Programming, Mutton made it clear, would mean that the technological possibilities would lead to enabling the state or an employer "to control how the money is spent by the recipient."

Not only is such a scenario horrifying beyond words, but half the world is already hurtling towards this nightmare: A study by the Atlantic Council last year found that 134 countries – including the U.S. at the time – were pursuing central bank digital currencies, with almost half of those countries at an advanced stage in this process. The Biden administration was actively working towards an American CBDC, but in May 2024, the House of Representatives passed a bill to prevent the Federal Reserve from introducing a CBDC. Shortly after coming into office, President Donald Trump banned the establishment of a CBDC in the United States.

In Europe, the European Union is barreling ahead at full speed towards a central bank digital currency for those EU countries that are part of the eurozone, which includes the majority of EU countries.

Yet, the dangers of this euro CBDC are nowhere near being discussed in mainstream European media. Of course, EU leaders stress that Europe must have a CBDC to "adapt to the digital age" – a vapid statement evidently intended to subdue skeptics, and supposedly to protect Europe against "increasing geopolitical fragmentation," whatever that is, if it is even relevant to digital currencies.

Whatever the excuse, the impending CBDCs appear intended to give governments unlimited power: If the government does not like your speech, off to jail you go – as in the UK, where people are imprisoned for months and years for saying or writing things that the government disagrees with. Meanwhile, real crimes, such as the mass-rape of thousands of children over the past 20 years, in Rotherham and other cities, remain rampant and largely unaddressed.

Those who control CBDCs will not only be able to fine and arrest you, as they do today, but also to simply cut off your money. Are you eating beef or cheese beyond your carbon allowance? You will have to buy bugs or fake meat instead, as the state will cut off your purchasing freedom.

Unfortunately, none of this is far-fetched. In Canada, during Covid-19 when the truckers went to Ottawa peacefully to protest government pandemic restrictions, then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau simply invoked the Emergencies Act, which allowed the government to force banks to freeze the truckers' bank accounts. Problem solved.

As for the rest? Carbon trackers already exist, 15-minute cities are being implemented, in the UK, for example, and the Covid-19 vaccine passports proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that governments will take harsh measures to exclude from society those who refuse to comply with whatever madness du jour the governments seek to impose on its citizens.

Agustin Carstens, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, sometimes known as the bank of all central banks, has admitted that CBDCs will give governments total control:

"[I]n cash, we don't know, for example, who is using a $100 bill today; we don't know who is using a 1000 peso bill today. A key difference with the CBDC is that central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that we determine the use... and we will have the technology to enforce that."

Last year, British MP Danny Kruger asked a representative of the UK Treasury what a CBDC is good for and what problem it is meant to solve. The bureaucrat replied:

"Look. What's it for? It's to keep track with the reality of how we all purchase and save and do our work with our goods."

They are not even hiding it.

Notably, there is at least some coordination among governments across the West on this totalitarian agenda. Professor Werner noted:

"The Covid operation... many of the policies had no proper medical justification or purpose... whereas if you have the hypothesis that [it] was partly used to even. you know, lay the groundwork for CBDCs...

"[T]his vaccine passport was... a way to push digital IDs, which are a precondition for CBDCs. In order to introduce CBDCs you need digital IDs, and digital IDs were meant to be introduced with the vaccine passport or health passport, which is a form of digital ID... The Covid policies... every country in the world seemed to have the same policies, well mostly certainly in Europe and North America, and so there was an extraordinary degree of coordination that was revealed to us, and clearly that did not come from any democratic process, but somehow top-down from behind the scenes... and that's really another reason why we should be against CBDCs; they've shown us what they're going to do...

"There is already various credit and debit cards that have the functionality that your spending will be analyzed and you get a report on an ongoing basis of how much CO2 emissions are involved in your spending... Mastercard... is offering that."

CO2, however, will more than likely turn out to be just a tiny excuse for the extreme power that governments will be wielding if they get CBDCs into our hands. Your money will no longer be yours, but more like a credit or account that you will have with the government and that you will only have access to on condition that you follow the rules, whatever they might be.

In his "Manifesto of the Communist Party," published in 1848, Karl Marx actually called for a national bank, as something that would help bring about "socialism-communism": "Centralisation of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with State capital and an exclusive monopoly," he wrote of the "fifth measure" necessary to bring about Communism.

Is that what we really want?

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 14:05

Vitalik Buterin Finally Pushes Back After Weeks Of ETH Stalking Queue FUD

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has finally addressed some concerns over the lengthening Ethereum staking exit queue, which has now grown to 45 days. 

His response came after Galaxy Digital’s head of DeFi, Michael Marcantonio, called the exit queue length “troubling” on X and compared it to Solana, which only requires two days to unstake. He has since deleted the posts. 

“Unclear how a network that takes 45 days to return assets can serve as a suitable candidate to power the next era of global capital markets.”

Deleted post from Galaxy Digital’s DeFi head. Source: Etc.

However, Buterin seemingly took a more ideological stance on the subject, describing unstaking from Ethereum as “more like a soldier deciding to quit the army,” adding that staking is more about “taking on a solemn duty to defend the chain.”

“Friction in quitting is part of the deal. An army cannot hold together if any percent of it can suddenly leave at any time.”

Overall, the network remains highly secure with over a million active validators and 35.6 million ETH staked, or almost 30% of the entire supply. 

That being said, Buterin acknowledged the current staking queue design was not optimal, but reducing the constants would make the chain “much less trustworthy” for nodes that do not go online frequently. 

Ethereum exit queue surged to an all-time high last week. Source: ValidatorQueue

Galaxy Digital purchased $1.5 billion worth of Solana recently after partnering with Multicoin Capital and trading firm Jump Crypto in a Solana treasury firm. 

Galaxy Digital was also the first Nasdaq-listed company to tokenize its shares on Solana. 

Fighting the staking FUD

Marcantonio seemingly deleted the posts after pushback from others.

Former Consensys product manager Jimmy Ragosa called out Marcantonio and Galaxy Digital, stating that  from what he can gather from direct messages, the only thing the “relentless ETH FUD” has achieved is that “most entities with any vested interest in Ethereum are now reconsidering their business with Galaxy.”

Source: Jimmy Ragosa

“Apparently, Galaxy made their head of DeFi delete all of his Ethereum FUD,” said crypto lawyer Gabriel Shapiro, adding that “he was engaging in insanely gaslighty psyops.”  

“Frankly, I wish it had stayed up because it only made Ethereum look great both technologically and culturally, but oh well.”

“I’ll be recommending that people no longer do business with Galaxy,” said Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano, adding:

“Deleting tweets doesn’t change the fact that the guy is their 'Head of DeFi' and doesn’t understand the very basics of this industry and cares more about fudding Ethereum than the actual truth.”

Solana proponent Mike Dudas sided with Galaxy, stating, “folks with a ‘vested interest in Ethereum’ have to work with shitty bankers instead of Galaxy who has proven with Solana that they can drive significant value in transactions and bridge to a much broader group of stakeholders.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Marcantonio and Galaxy for comment.

Ethereum ecosystem remains healthy 

The Ethereum exit queue has dipped over the past few days, but remains high at 2.5 million ETH. However, a large portion of this is from Kiln Finance following an exploit. 

There are currently 512,000 ETH in the entry queue, which hit a two-year high recently amid institutional accumulation. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 13:25

There's Something Odd About Meta's New Ray-Ban AR Glasses... 

Mark Zuckerberg introduced Meta Ray-Ban Display and Meta Neural Band on Wednesday, the tech giant's first consumer-ready smart glasses with a built-in digital display.

Introducing Meta Ray-Ban Display: A Breakthrough Category of AI Glasses https://t.co/NmeQmjm4DU pic.twitter.com/V1iHfwQKTH

— Reality Labs at Meta (@RealityLabs) September 18, 2025

Oversized black-framed glasses have become a kind of status symbol within the Democratic Party - merely a contest of who can outdo whom with bigger black frames, while pushing endless streams of woke narratives. 

For everyday folks hoping for new AR glasses, Meta's new glasses instead project a sense of unhinged liberal vibes... 

Even Mark Zuckerberg's launch interview was extremely awkward...

If you're willing to spend $799 on a pair of AR glasses that give off progressive vibes, Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan has outlined the key takeaways from Meta Connect 2025 Keynote: 

AR/VR Hardware:

• Meta Ray-Ban Display – Meta announced both the Meta Ray-Ban Display, its first generation AI glasses with smart display, and Meta Neural Band, its companion neural interface wristband. Meta Ray-Ban Display includes a high resolution augmented reality display that enables various capabilities such as messaging, video chat, image and video capture and live subtitles & language translation. Available on 9/30, starting at $799.

• Ray-Ban Meta glasses – Meta introduced the next generation of its Ray-Ban Meta glasses, including new styles & colors, features (2x longer battery life; improved camera with 3k video) and new AI capabilities (Conversation Focus & Life AI – see below). Available now starting at $379.

• Oakley Meta glasses – Meta also introduced the next generation of its Oakley Meta HSTN glasses & announced new Oakley Meta Vanguard glasses. For Vanguard, this includes improved performance (122 degree field of view; improved video capabilities including 3k resolution and features such as stabilization, slow motion, hyperlapse and autocapture) and 3P partnership integrations (Garmin; Strava). Vanguard available for pre-order today starting at $499.

Software & Artificial Intelligence:

• New AI Features for glasses, including Conversation Focus (ability to amplify certain voices in your surroundings) and Live AI (path toward always-on AI assistance running in the background).

• Meta Horizon Studio – New studio for building VR worlds/experiences using Meta's generative AI creation tools.

• Meta Horizon Engine – Meta's new gaming engine built & optimized for the metaverse, including faster loading & rendering of VR worlds and early access to Hyperscape Capture (ability to capture real world places into immersive digital worlds via a Quest headset).

• Horizon TV – Meta's new entertainment hub for streaming content on AR & VR headsets, including announced partnerships with Disney (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN), Universal Pictures and Blumhouse.

With Apple's Vision Pro struggling to gain traction, how will Tim Cook respond now that Meta looks like it’s racing ahead in the smart-glasses space?

feeling really bad for the Meta OS team https://t.co/gkcXeaje7Y pic.twitter.com/RYjNcFs83a

— near (@nearcyan) September 18, 2025

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can access the full note here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 13:05

DOJ Sues Maine, Oregon Over Voter Registration Lists

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ ) said on Sept. 16 that it is suing Oregon and Maine for failing to provide information on how their election offices maintain valid voter registration rolls.

The DOJ’s Civil Rights Division said in a statement that both states had declined to cooperate with the department’s requests for unredacted access to voter rolls and maintenance procedures, despite having allegedly given a private organization access to “identical information.”

“States simply cannot pick and choose which federal laws they will comply with, including our voting laws, which ensure that all American citizens have equal access to the ballot in federal elections,” Assistant Attorney General for the Civil Rights Division Harmeet Dhillon said.

“American citizens have a right to feel confident in the integrity of our electoral process, and the refusal of certain states to protect their citizens against vote dilution will result in legal consequences.”

States are granted broad discretion over how they conduct both state and federal elections. However, there are some federal laws, such as the Voting Rights Act, the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA), and laws setting a uniform date for federal elections, that regulate the process and that states are required to adhere to when conducting elections.

Over the past several months, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division has sent requests for voter registration-related information to at least 24 states, including requesting a complete list of all registered voters from at least 22 states.

In the lawsuit, the DOJ accused the two states and their secretaries of state of violating the NVRA, the Help America Vote Act, and the Civil Rights Act of 1960 in their refusal to share information regarding election oversight.

The department said that Oregon and its secretary of state, Tobias Read, are “refusing to produce the current unredacted electronic copy of the state’s voter registration list, to provide information on the state’s voter list maintenance program, and to disclose registration information for any ineligible voters.”

It accused Maine and its secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, of “refusing to provide data regarding the removal of ineligible individuals and to produce an unredacted, computerized state voter registration list.”

Bellows, a Democrat, criticized the legal action.

“It is absurd that the Department of Justice is targeting our state when Republican and Democratic secretaries all across the country are fighting back against this federal abuse of power just like we are,” she said in a statement. “I stand by the integrity and professionalism of Maine’s dedicated state election officials.”

She also accused the DOJ of lying with its claim that her office shared the information it was requesting with a private organization.

Read, also a Democrat, said his office is committed to protecting voter privacy from the federal attempt at oversight.

“If the President wants to use the DOJ to go after his political opponents and undermine our elections, I look forward to seeing them in court,” Read said in a statement.

“I stand by my oath to the people of Oregon, and I will protect their rights and privacy.”

Neither of the two state offices responded to a request for comment by publication time.

The lawsuit against Maine comes after the Republican National Committee filed a complaint last week with the Justice Department alleging that Bellows refused to provide adequate information about how the state maintains its voter rolls.

Earlier this month, state officials in North Carolina acknowledged in a settlement with the DOJ that they had not collected from some voters a driver’s license number or another identifying number, as required by the Help America Vote Act of 2002.

Officials said they would remedy this by collecting the information required under federal law from registered voters.

Trump said on Aug. 30 that he would sign an executive order that would require a voter ID to vote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 12:45

Trump Files Emergency Request With Supreme Court To Make Lisa Cook Fired Again

The Trump administration filed an emergency request with the Supreme Court on Thursday to allow it to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank's board while a lawsuit plays out in lower court over Cook's ouster by President Trump last month. 

The request comes after a federal appeals court in Washington DC rejected the administration's attempt to remove an order blocking Cook's removal in a 2-1 decision the night before the Fed's meeting earlier this week.

"This application involves yet another case of improper judicial interference with the President’s removal authority — here, interference with the President’s authority to remove members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for cause," wrote  the administration’s lawyer, Solicitor General John Sauer. 

According to court filings, the Trump administration maintains that Cook committed mortgage fraud based on evidence provided by Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte - which showed that Cook claimed two properties as her primary residence within weeks of each other. 

On Aug. 25, Trump announced that he was firing Cook from the seven-member Fed Board. Cook sued in response, resulting in a federal district court on Sept. 9 barring her removal while the suit plays out - which the appeals court upheld.

Sauer says that the Supreme Court, for various reasons, should stay the district court judge's preliminary injunction reinstating Cook to the Fed, claiming that the DOJ is likely to prevail in the lawsuit "because Cook lacks a Fifth Amendment property interest in her continued service as a Governor of the Federal Reserve System," and her job is not protected by due process considerations.

Sauer also disputed the judge's alternative finding that Cook's firing "for cause" was invalid because the alleged conduct occurred before she was appointed to the Fed.

"The Federal Reserve Act’s broad ‘for cause’ provision rules out removal for no reason at all, or for policy disagreement," he wrote, adding "But so long as the President identifies a cause, the determination of ‘some cause relating to the conduct, ability, fitness, or competence of the officer’ is within the President’s unreviewable discretion."

"Cook had made contradictory representations in two mortgage agreements a short time apart, claiming that both a property in Michigan and a property in Georgia would simultaneously serve as her principal residence," Sauer continued. "Each mortgage agreement described the representation as material to the lender, reflecting the reality that lenders usually offer lower interest rates for principal-residence mortgages because they view such mortgages as less risky."

"When her apparent misconduct came to light, the President determined that Cook’s ‘deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter’ renders her unfit to continue serving on the Federal Reserve Board, and at a minimum demonstrates ‘the sort of gross negligence in financial transactions that calls into question [her] competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator." 

Sauer also says that the district court judge "lacked authority to order reinstatement as an equitable remedy for the removal of an officer of the United States, as we have discussed in several recent stay applications."

Cook has denied wrongdoing, and has argued that unproven allegations are not sufficient grounds for removing the Biden appointee. 

Click pic. Buy beef. Receive beef next Wednesday. Rejoice and subscribe for 5% off future orders.  Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 12:25

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.90 million in August, down 2.7% from July’s preliminary pace and down 0.8% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this August’s lower business day count compared to last August’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release August Existing Home sales on Thursday, September 25th at 10:00 AM. Last year, the NAR reported sales in August 2024 at 3.93 million SAAR.

There is also an update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

Dead Cat Bounce Or Bottom? Novo Jumps On Ozempic Study As Goldman Weighs In

Novo Nordisk shares jumped the most in 18 months in Copenhagen trading on Thursday after its diabetes wonder drug Ozempic beat Eli Lilly's older drug Trulicity in a real-world survey of 60,000 Medicare patients with diabetes and heart disease. 

The new study was revealed at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference in Vienna earlier today. It showed that Medicare patients who took Ozempic were 23% less likely to suffer heart attacks, strokes, or death compared with those on Trulicity. 

Shares of Novo Nordisk in Copenhagen surged 7% on the announcement of the study, but remain down 36.5% year-to-date and more than 61.5% below the June 2024 peak of DKK 1,000. For Goldman analysts like Novo superbull James Quigley, the question is whether the 37% rebound since early August marks an actual bottom, or just another dead cat bounce.

Quigley penned a note to clients about the key takeaways from the new study presented at the EASD conference:

Novo hosted an R&D investor event in conjunction with the EASD conference in Vienna.

Our key takeaways were:

1. Amycretin is primarily an obesity drug not a diabetes drug and base case is a similar efficacy, tolerability and safety as CagriSema but with one API, with an upside case being a better profile than CagriSema,

2. Cagrilintide monotherapy trials will not use forced titration, could test higher doses, and will generate data in more subpopulations. On the need for a potential CVOT, the company said it is too early to say.

3. EVOKE/EVOKE+ is powered for 20% slowing in cognitive decline but can detect low teens % based on powering.

The company commented any statistically significant result would be seen as meaningful based on clinician feedback. Overall, our conversations with management as well as KOL commentary at the EASD conference further highlights to us that in order to be successful in obesity, companies will need for a broad pipeline supported by deep databases behind each asset, as obesity will not be a one size fits all market, particularly with new entrants on the horizon.

Related:

• Goldman, UBS React To Novo Nordisk Axing 9,000 Jobs, Slashing Guidance Amid GLP-1 Headwinds

• Novo Shares Gain As Wegovy Shows Big Edge Over Lilly's Tirzepatide In Heart Study

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full note here, along with more details on Quigley's 12-month price target.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 09:45

As Birth Rates Decline, Here's How To Boost Fertility

Authored by Mary West via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Last year, the U.S. fertility rate reached an all-time low, according to World Bank data. For those concerned about infertility, it may be a good idea to consider interventions that improve health, as they can boost the chance of becoming pregnant.

Optimal fertility is really just an expression of optimal health, Jessica Sharratt, doctor of acupuncture and oriental medicine at Heal Los Angeles, told The Epoch Times.

“When your metabolism, hormones, immune system, and mitochondria are thriving, your reproductive health benefits, too.”

In some cases, lifestyle changes alone can make a significant difference, as they not only boost fertility but also lay the foundation for a healthier pregnancy, said Drs. Abby Eblen, Carrie Bedient, and Susan Hudson, reproductive endocrinologists and co-hosts of the Fertility Docs Uncensored podcast.

“However, lifestyle changes and medical treatments often work best in conjunction with each other,” they told The Epoch Times.

Sharratt suggests lifestyle changes 3–6 months before trying to conceive, to give time for healthier eggs to develop.

1. Pursue an Optimal Weight

A review published in the International Journal of Medical Sciences suggested that modest weight loss is important for fostering fertility. Outcomes in women include improvements in reproductive hormone profiles, menstrual cycle regularity, ovulation, conception, and pregnancy. Outcomes in men include improvements in reproductive hormone profiles, sexual function, and sperm form and movement.

Dr. David Ghozland, board-certified in obstetrics and gynecology in Orange County, California, said in an email to The Epoch Times that he often sees the benefits of weight loss on fertility in his practice. One of his patients, a 28-year-old, had been trying to conceive for 18 months. Last month, after losing only 22 pounds over the course of four months, she became pregnant.

He said that the metabolic link is much more profound than most physicians realize. The mechanism is that visceral adipose tissue produces inflammatory chemicals that act directly to disrupt follicular development, which precedes egg formation. Reducing inflammation through weight loss creates conditions in which conception may again become possible naturally.

“In my clinic, [in vitro fertilization] IVF patients who enhance their metabolic health before using fertility medications experience success rates that are 65 percent higher during their initial IVF cycle,” said Ghozland.

2. Eat a Healthy Diet

Nutrition plays a big role in reproductive health, Amy Chow, a registered dietitian at BC Dietitians, said in an email to The Epoch Times.

The food we eat can influence hormone balance, egg and sperm quality, and the body’s ability to conceive. Aside from providing energy, nutrients play bioactive roles that support reproductive function, reduce inflammation, and help regulate key processes such as ovulation.

A review published in Biology found that the Mediterranean diet protects against infertility, while the Western diet increases risk.

Fatty acids are an example of a nutrient with bioactive properties, said Chow. In the Mediterranean diet, sources such as olive oil, avocados, nuts, and seeds, and fatty fish provide healthy fats that reduce inflammation and support fertility. In contrast, the Western diet’s trans fats—common in processed and fast foods—promote insulin resistance and inflammation, which can impair ovulation and lower fertility, according to cohort studies.

The type and quality of proteins eaten also affect fertility, she said.

Plant-based proteins, such as those in beans, tend to support fertility, while excessive intakes of animal proteins may be linked to a higher risk of infertility. Research suggests that animal protein is linked to a high risk of anovulation—the failure to ovulate—while replacing some animal protein with plant protein reduces the risk of anovulation infertility.

Concerning carbohydrates, Chow recommends focusing on whole, fiber-rich, and low-glycemic index options, which can help stabilize blood sugar and support the body’s natural hormonal regulation. Examples include brown rice, old-fashioned oats, and 100 percent whole-grain bread. In contrast, high-glycemic foods include cookies, crackers, cakes, white bread, and sugary beverages.

“People with or without hormone-related conditions, like [polycystic ovary syndrome] PCOS or endometriosis, can benefit from dietary improvements,” Chow said.

Endometriosis causes infertility through multiple factors, including disrupted ovary function and a reduced capacity to support the implantation of a fertilized egg due to scarring.

Chow added that while fertility supplements are widely marketed, dietitians always advise a “food-first” approach. Most people can meet their nutritional needs through a balanced diet.

“An important practice that impairs fertility is undereating, which includes excessive weight loss, stress, and exercise,” Shira Sussi, a prenatal dietitian, said in an email to The Epoch Times.

When the body doesn’t get enough food for energy, this deficit can lead to low levels of estrogen, sometimes accompanied by high cortisol (stress hormone), as well as low thyroid and insulin levels, she said.

Sussi noted that severe undereating can disrupt hormones and lead to functional hypothalamic amenorrhea, a condition that stops ovulation. “I would even argue against practicing intermittent fasting when trying to conceive, given this link between undereating, ovulatory dysfunction, and hormone imbalance,” she said.

3. Manage Stress

Laurie Binder, a doctor of acupuncture with Santa Monica Acupuncture and Wellness, said that in both sexes, managing stress is vital. High cortisol levels can disrupt the delicate balance of reproductive hormones. Acupuncture does this by activating the parasympathetic nervous system, encouraging the body to shift from a “fight-or-flight” state into a “rest-and-reproduce” state.

(Stress management solution)

When the body is in a fight-or-flight state—sympathetic nervous system dominance—stress hormones such as cortisol and adrenaline rise. These hormones can interfere with ovulation and reduce blood flow to the reproductive organs. Essentially, the body prioritizes survival over reproduction, she said.

Substances that strain the body—whether recreational, prescription, or excessive caffeine, tobacco and alcohol—can also quietly undermine fertility. A review published in Reproduction and Fertility advises the following:

• Refrain from using recreational drugs, which increase the risk of sexually transmitted diseases and infections that lead to infertility.
• Avoid taking unnecessary prescription drugs, as many of them affect reproductive processes.
• Limit excessive caffeine intake, which can worsen fertility problems.

Additionally, regular exercise is a powerful tool for reducing stress, offering particular benefits for women coping with infertility.

Read the rest here...

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• Dong Quai: Called the "female ginseng," it's used in traditional Chinese medicine to regulate menstrual cycles and alleviate menopausal symptoms.
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• Thiamin (Vitamin B1), Niacin (Vitamin B3), Vitamin B6, and Vitamin B12: These B vitamins are crucial for energy production, mood regulation, and cognitive function, supporting overall vitality.
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• Boron: A trace mineral that can positively affect hormone levels, including testosterone, and support bone health.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 09:30

Ethereum Un-Staking Queue Goes 'Parabolic': What Does That Mean For Price?

Authored by Nancy Lubale via CoinTelegraph.com,

The amount of Ether in the queue waiting to be unstaked has surged to its highest level, as investors may be looking to cash in on yearly profits.

Ether’s exit queue hits record $12B ETH

Ethereum’s exit queue surpassed 2.6 million ETH worth $12 billion last week, with a 44-day wait time.

This marked the largest amount of Ether ever set for withdrawal by the network’s validators, who are responsible for adding new blocks and verifying transactions in proposed blocks, playing a vital role in securing the Ethereum blockchain.

Data from ValidatorQueue noted that the number of active validators was above 1.05 million, with 29.4% of the total ETH supply staked, i.e., around 35.6 million ETH. 

“Ethereum staking exit queue goes parabolic,” macro analyst MartyPary commented on the largest validator exodus in crypto history.  

Number of Ether queued for exit. Source: Validator Queue

While this does not mean that all the validators are looking to sell their holdings, a significant portion of the over $12 billion may be offloaded to lock in profits, notably as the Ether price has risen 97% over the past 12 months.

“The Ethereum exit queue is at a record high, with huge amounts of $ETH now waiting to exit staking,” said crypto YouTuber Lark Davis in an X post, adding:

“Heavy sell pressure incoming.”

Meanwhile, the Ethereum staking entry queue reached its lowest level in four weeks, adding to fears that a surge in the exit queue could lead to a major sell-off.

More than 512,755 ETH, worth around $2.3 billion, were waiting to be staked at the time of writing, down from 959,717 ETH on Sept. 5, indicating a slowdown in demand for staking Ether.

Strong institutional demand allays ETF sell-off fears

Increasing accumulation and buying strength from Ether treasury companies and spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are absorbing much of the selling pressure. 

Data from strategicethreserve.xyz highlights that collective holdings of strategic reserves and ETFs have surged 116% since July 1, climbing to 11,762,594 ETH from 5,445,458 ETH.

The sharp increase underscores a swift influx of Ether supply into the hands of major institutional and corporate players.

Ether treasuries and ETF holdings reserve. Source: strategicethreserve.xyz

The majority of these entities have or will stake the asset for additional yields for their strategies, which may boost the entry queue in the coming weeks.

Another bullish narrative is tied to the potential launch of ETH staking ETFs. This implies that some investors may be freeing up liquidity to re-enter these products later, effectively reshuffling their exposure without exiting the ETH market.

While the SEC’s final deadline for approval is set for April 2026, popular analyst Axel Bitblaze said the green light could come much sooner, possibly as early as October 2025.

“I know we have been waiting for the ETH ETFs approval, but now it’s only a matter of time,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday X post, adding:

“BlackRock's ETH staking approval next deadline is in October, and I think the approval will most likely happen.”

Capital continued to flow into crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) last week, with Ethereum investment products attracting $646 million in inflows, marking a return of institutional investor appetite for ETH.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 09:25

More Than 10 Russian Refineries Have Been Hit By Ukrainian Drones Since Early August

Another day, another Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil facility. This time a major Gazprom oil and petrochemical facility in the republic of Bashkortostan was struck on Thursday.

"Two drones attacked the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat enterprise," Bashkortostan regional head Radiy Khabirov stated on Telegram. He called it a "terrorist attack" and described that security guards opened fire on the drones while they were inbound, though there were no injuries in the attack.

Via Reuters

Videos from the scene showed thick black smoke rising above the facility, as emergency crews responded to battle the blaze and assess the damage - which is uncertain.

Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery is one of the country's largest, ranked as Russia's 10th-largest and processing around 10 million metric tons of oil annually, and a huge array of petroleum and chemical products. This isn't the first time it was struck by drones in an attack, given an incident which happened in 2024.

At least ten separate Russian refineries have come under cross-border drone attack from Ukraine since only early August, which has served to reduce nation-wide refining output by nearly 20% - or roughly 1.1 million barrels per day - and wholesale oil prices in Russia have risen sharply.

Gazprom refinery in Russia's Bashkortostan is having a rough morning. pic.twitter.com/d9iK0otLEi

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 18, 2025

Ukraine's military and media have classified Russia's refineries as essentially military targets, given they prop up funding of the armed forces as they execute Putin's 'special military operation'.

For example there was this early August statement from Ukrainian media:

According to Ukraine's General Staff, the ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil processing unit, with an estimated annual capacity of 6 million tons, was hit.

The plant, which has a capacity of 13.8 million tons per year, was previously struck by Ukrainian drones on Aug. 2, forcing two of its three main refining units to halt operations.

Ukraine's military said the facility plays a role in supporting Russia's armed forces.

This reveals a concerted effort to permanently damage the Kremlin's ability to fund the war. Newsmax has previously observed that "The impact has been felt nationwide. Motorists face fuel shortages, long lines, and record prices."

Salavat oil refinery in Bashkortostan lies more than 800 miles from the Ukrainian border...

Via X

The report noted further, "Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 54% since January, prompting authorities to suspend exports and impose rationing in some regions."

Meanwhile, according to TASS on Thursday, "The Russian Finance Ministry is budgeting for a gradual decrease in dependence on oil and gas, with the oil cutoff price in the budget rule planned to fall to $55 per barrel by 2030, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the Moscow Financial Forum."

Siluanov said, "In order to make finances sustainable, we propose and budget for a reduction in the budget’s dependence on various restrictions, be they price or volume, on oil and gas revenues."

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 09:05

House Rejects Bid To Censure Rep. Ilhan Omar Over Charlie Kirk Comments

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The House of Representatives on Sept. 17 rejected a bid to censure Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) for comments she made about conservative influencer Charlie Kirk following his assassination.

The censure motion, brought by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), would have also stripped Omar of her assignments on the Education and the Workforce Committee and the Budget Committee.

It was tabled in a 214–213 vote. Four Republicans joined all Democrats in voting to drop consideration of the measure.

The motion regarded the remarks Omar made about Kirk during an interview on Zeteo.

During the interview, Omar criticized those she said were “people who are out there talking about him just wanting to have a civil debate.”

“There is nothing more [expletive] to completely pretend his words and actions have not been recorded and in existence for the last decade or so,” the lawmaker said.

Mace’s resolution also cited Omar’s repost of a video on X that described Kirk as a “reprehensible human being.”

Mace condemned Republicans who voted to table the measure.

“Democrats and these 4 ‘Republicans’ chose Ilhan Omar over decency, over justice, and over Charlie Kirk’s family,” Mace wrote in a post on X after the vote.

“They showed us exactly who they are. Never forget it.”

Omar, meanwhile, thanked her House colleagues “for having my back and not furthering lies on the House floor.

“Appreciate them safeguarding first amendment protections and the usage of the censure,” she said in a post on X after the vote.

One of the four Republicans who voted to table the measure, Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), defended his vote in a post on X.

“The 7 Articles and 27 Amendments of our Constitution are not only to be followed when it serves your purpose,” Mills wrote.

“This is a [First Amendment] issue. We may not like or agree with what someone says, but that does not mean we should deny their [First Amendment] Right.”

Reps. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), and Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) also voted to table the measure.

After Mace unveiled her resolution to censure Omar, Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) responded with a countermeasure to censure Mills over allegations involving his personal and professional conduct.

Earlier this month, lawmakers in the lower chamber also rejected an effort to censure Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) and strip her of her committee assignments after she was indicted on federal assault charges following a clash with federal officers at an immigrant detention center in Newark, New Jersey.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 08:45

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 263,000 to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 240,500 to 240,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 240,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Cable Dips As BoE Holds Rates Steady (As Expected), Slows QT Summary:

• In a 7-2 decision, BoE chose to hold rates steady, with long-term doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voting for a cut.

• It will continue with a “cautious and gradual” approach to any future rate cuts – no change in the language there.

• Quantitative tightening will slow from £100 billion a year to £70 billion, and the Bank will skew those sales to shorter-dated maturities.

• The BOE’s inflation expectations for the year are broadly unchanged, and it noted slightly better-than-expected growth in the second quarter, but said the economy remains subdued.

• The market reaction has been fairly muted.

The Bank of England held its key interest rate steady Thursday (as widely expected), just a day after the Fed cut borrowing costs for the first time in nine months.

Policymakers have lowered rates five times since August 2024, cutting at three-month intervals.

At the central bank's last meeting two rounds of voting were required for the first time since the Monetary Policy Committee was launched 28 years ago, with MPC member Alan Taylor switching his vote to break a deadlock in favor of a quarter-point cut.

This time around, seven of the MPC's nine members voted to hold rates steady, while two voted to cut borrowing costs by a quarter of a point.

will continue with a “cautious and gradual” approach to any future rate cuts – no change in the language there.

The BoE revealed that it will reduce its Asset Purchase Facility (APF) by a total £70 bn in the year October 2025 to September 2026 from a total £100 bn in the year just ending.

Of that, £53 bn will be through passive run-off (£87 bn this year) and £17 bn will be in active sales (£9.3 bn this year).

There was a three-way split on QT with Pill preferring the maintain the current pace of £100 bn/year (and hence a much faster pace of active sales).

Mann wanted a slower pace of £62 bn, which would have left active sales the same in the coming year as last.

As Bloomberg's Jacob Reid reports, an important part of the QT announcement isn’t just the scale of the slowdown -- it’s their decision to sell even fewer longer-dated gilts than other maturities, in a change of previous policy.

About 20% of the of the required sales will be bonds with maturities of more than 20 years, with the remainder split evenly between short- and medium-term debt.

It mirrors the government, which is also selling fewer long-dated bonds, after the 30-year yield spiked to a three-decade high, and demand for such securities has waned from traditional buyers such as pension funds. 

Governor Andrew Bailey said the new sales profile would “minimise the impact on gilt market conditions.”

The bank also noted that “structural changes” in the bond market had reduced demand for long-term debt which “could pose a risk that QT would have a greater impact on market functioning than previously.”

“This is a pragmatic decision from policymakers, which should help alleviate some modest pressure at the long-end of the curve,” said Michael Brown, a strategist at Pepperstone in London.

The market reaction is largely muted for now with cable falling modestly on the statement. The FTSE 100 has ticked up from a lunchtime low, and gilt yields are ever so slightly down at the shorter end of the curve. Traders have slightly boosted easing bets.

The guidance from the BoE remains intact – interest rates are likely to drop further, but Governor Bailey said the moves would need to be made “gradually and carefully”.

The BoE said it remained focused on squeezing out existing and emerging inflation.

UBS notes that wage growth remains a key problem for the Bank of England:

The BoE’s base case is that UK wage growth will slow down, and from there, services sector inflation will slow. But it isn’t certain how long that process will take. Further, the BoE is concerned that the recent increase of inflation and the potential it rises further in September will actually put some upward pressure on wages. On top of that, it raised the prospect of higher food prices keeping headline inflation upwards.

In other words, while the core view is that wages and hence inflation will slow, there is a significant risk that assumption is wrong and quite the reverse happens with a low-level price/wage spiral occurring.

The broad view from the Committee was: “In general, upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures remained prominent in the Committee’s assessment.”

The BoE noted that the labour market had loosened, but it wasn’t sure that sufficient slack had opened to mitigate inflationary pressures.

Finally, The BoE notes that trade policy uncertainty was estimated to have increased slightly since the Committee’s August meeting, albeit it was still significantly lower than earlier in the year. They note aspects of US tariff policies were facing domestic legal challenge in coming weeks.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 07:50

Intel Shares Soar 30% After Nvidia Agrees To Invest $5 Billion

A little over a month ago, we correctly predicted that the US government would purchase a stake in troubled chipmaker Intel (a few days later, the Trump admin unveiled it would acquire a 10% stake in the chipmaker, sending its price soaring).

The Pentagon took a stake in US rare earth miner MP Materials... when will it do the same with Intel

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2025

But not even we could predict what happened next: Intel shares are soaring in premarket trading - and if gains of 30% hold until the close it would mark the largest daily increase on record in Bloomberg data, dating back to the early 1980s... 

... on news that Nvidia will invest $5BN in Intel at $23.28 per share, as part of a deal to jointly develop and manufacture new chips for PCs and data centres. 

The collaboration centers on integrating NVIDIA's NVLink technology with Intel's x86 CPU ecosystem, combining NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing strengths with Intel's leadership in CPUs, process technology, and advanced packaging.

Highlights of the partnership:  

• Data Centers: Intel will build NVIDIA-custom x86 CPUs, which NVIDIA will integrate into its AI infrastructure platforms.

• Personal Computing: Intel will produce new x86 SoCs incorporating NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets, powering next-gen PCs with combined CPU-GPU integration.

The partnership also includes Nvidia investing $5 billion in Intel stock at $23.28 per share, pending regulatory approvals. 

Comments from Nvidia and Intel executives on the partnership:

• Nividia CEO Jensen Huang: "AI is powering a new industrial revolution and reinventing every layer of the computing stack — from silicon to systems to software. At the heart of this reinvention is NVIDIA's CUDA architecture. This historic collaboration tightly couples NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing stack with Intel's CPUs and the vast x86 ecosystem — a fusion of two world-class platforms. Together, we will expand our ecosystems and lay the foundation for the next era of computing."

• Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan: "Intel's x86 architecture has been foundational to modern computing for decades — and we are innovating across our portfolio to enable the workloads of the future. Intel's leading data center and client computing platforms, combined with our process technology, manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities, will complement NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing leadership to enable new breakthroughs for the industry. We appreciate the confidence Jensen and the NVIDIA team have placed in us with their investment and look forward to the work ahead as we innovate for customers and grow our business."

Nvidia and Intel have been rivals for decades. But Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, hailed a “historic collaboration” to combine its graphics processing units, which dominate the market for artificial intelligence infrastructure, with Intel’s general-purpose chips. 

Today's announcement follows less than a month after the Trump administration shocked markets when it acquired a stake in Intel at $20.47 per share. As part of that agreement, the US acquired 433.3 million newly issued Intel common shares, equivalent to approximately a 10% ownership stake. 

Do valuations matter? 

Recall Trump recently said, "I will also help those companies that make such lucrative deals with the United States. ... I love seeing their stock price go up, making the USA RICHER, AND RICHER ... More jobs for America!!! Who would not want to make deals like that?"

Trump wasn't kidding: the U.S. Govt's Intel stake is already up 14% in under a month relative to the NVDA valuation round (translating to a 168% annualized gain) and is up more than 50% relative to the market price, which has soared by 30% this morning on the news of the historic investment.

And with this bullseye, US Capital LLC is now outperforming about 95% of all hedge funds this year. 

The next question: what company is next (spoiler: LEU). 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/18/2025 - 07:35