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US Government Revokes 80,000 Visas

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of State said on Nov. 6 that 80,000 visas have been revoked.

President Donald Trump and State Secretary Marco Rubio “will always put the safety and interests of the American people first,” the State Department said in a post on X.

The department said in a follow-up post that visas were revoked for reasons including support for terrorism, “actual terrorism,” criminal activity, public safety threats, and overstays.

The State Department also said that 16,000 visas were revoked in 2025 for driving under the influence of alcohol, 12,000 revoked for assault, and 8,000 revoked for theft. The nonimmigrant visa revocation numbers are from the beginning of this year.

The State Department did not offer more details regarding the revocations. The administration has maintained a conservative stance on approving visas for foreigners and has swiftly canceled visa privileges of temporary residents, including students, based on actions concerning national security.

“The Trump Administration will not hesitate to revoke visas from foreigners who undermine our laws or threaten our national security,” Tommy Pigott, the State Department’s principal deputy spokesperson, said in a Nov. 5 post on X.

Recently, the department invalidated visas of foreign nationals for publicly celebrating the assassination of popular conservative influencer Charlie Kirk.

In an Oct. 14 post on X, the department said it was revoking visas of six foreigners, including a South African national who mocked Americans grieving Kirk’s death, saying, “They’re hurt that the racist rally ended in attempted martyrdom.” The other individuals were from Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Mexico, and Paraguay.

“The United States has no obligation to host foreigners who wish death on Americans,” the department said, adding that it “continues to identify visa holders who celebrated the heinous assassination of Charlie Kirk.”

The Trump administration has also reduced the number of nonimmigrant visas issued to foreign nationals.

The visas are issued to foreign citizens on a temporary basis for tourism, business, medical treatment, and certain types of temporary work, while immigrant visas are for people who intend to live and work permanently in the country.

The United States had approved 897,937 nonimmigrant visas in May 2025, according to numbers from the State Department. This is down by more than 16 percent from 1,070,656 such visas issued in May 2024 under the Biden administration.

As for immigrant visas, the department issued 46,751 such visas in May 2025, down by more than 20 percent from the 58,778 issued in May last year.

Student Visa Vetting

In late May, the State Department ordered U.S. embassies to pause student visa interviews in an effort to strengthen the vetting process, especially concerning the screening of applicants’ social media accounts.

“We take very seriously the process of vetting who it is that comes into the country,” then-State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters at the time.

This action from the department followed Rubio’s statement in March.

“Coming to the United States on a visa is a privilege, not a right,“ Rubio said. ”The Trump Administration is determined to deny or revoke your visa if you’re here to support terrorists.”

He made the comments amid a rise in student protests on college campuses across the country.

The Trump administration’s crackdown on student visas has been met with opposition from Democrats. In April, a group of Democrats from New York criticized the administration following reports of students from various universities in the state having their visas revoked, according to an April 17 statement by New York state Sen. Patricia Fahy.

Such a “continued assault” on students’ free speech and institutions of higher education undermines the principles of American democracy, she said, adding that students must not feel afraid or powerless because of their immigration status.

“We are deeply disturbed by the Trump administration’s revocation of student visas without justification or explanation,” Fahy said. “The Constitution guarantees fundamental rights and due process to all people, not just U.S. citizens. History tells us that although persecution often begins with attacks on immigrant communities, it rarely ends there, which begs the question: Who is next?”

In June, the department announced new vetting requirements, including social media screening for all student visa applicants. The changes affect applicants for the student, vocational, and exchange visitor visas.

Rubio also announced that the administration would begin revoking visas for students from China, including those with any links to the Chinese Communist Party.

The Chinese communist regime has been accused of monitoring and mobilizing students abroad for the purposes of carrying out CCP directives and spreading its propaganda.

In August, the Department of Homeland Security proposed changes to temporary visas, which included establishing a fixed visa period for nonimmigrant students, exchange visitors, and foreign media personnel to stay in the United States.

The administration has also placed visa restrictions on foreign nationals who engage in censoring Americans, and on H-1B visas issued for importing foreign workers to fulfill specialized roles.

“Even as we take action to reject censorship at home, we see troubling instances of foreign governments and foreign officials picking up the slack. In some instances, foreign officials have taken flagrant censorship actions against U.S. tech companies and U.S. citizens and residents when they have no authority to do so,” the State Department said in a May 28 statement.

Employers must now pay a one-time fee of $100,000 for visas to hire a foreign worker under the H-1B program.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 09:15

Stocks Slide To Session Lows As Risk Sentiment Fractures

US equity futs are trading at session lows driven by a tech-led dip in stock futures over the past two hours as global risk sentiment turns sour to end the week, and with Goldman TMT specialist Peter Bartlett observing that  "a more bearish/skeptical view of the AI trade is coming up in more and more of our investor conversations... even if positioning hasn't changed much off the highs." As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures drop 0.7%, with most of the Mag 7s underperforming (NVDA -0.7%, GOOG/L -0.5% and META -0.5%). Microsoft was poised for its longest losing streak since 2011. US Treasuries held onto yesterday’s gains with yields 1-2 bps higher after the two dismal labor reports . The dollar was steady, while Bitcoin headed for its worst week since March. Commodities are mixed; oil and precious metals are higher this morning, while base metals are lower. Macro headlines overnight were mostly quiet. Shutdown negotiation progress remains stalled; airline cuts begin this Friday. Chinese exports unexpectedly fall for the first time since February; Jensen Huang said he is not actively discussing the Blackwell shipment to China. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: (Tesla +0.1%, Microsoft -0.4%, Apple -0.04%, Amazon -0.6%, Meta -0.5%, Alphabet -0.7%, Nvidia -0.8%) 

• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) jumps 10% after the buy-now-pay-later financing company raised its forecast for 2026 gross merchandise volume. The updated guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
• Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) rises 3% after issuing a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter, with a recently launched “reserve now, pay later” feature helping fuel demand in the US.
• Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) falls 13% after the maker of fiber-optic networking products reported third-quarter revenue that was slightly weaker than expected and gave a revenue outlook that was below the analyst consensus. However, analysts see strong prospects for 2026.
• Archer Aviation (ACHR) drops 11% after the company, which is trying to bring electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft to market, said it is buying Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles. The company is offering shares at $8 each to certain institutional investors to raise gross proceeds of $650m, part of which will be used to fund the acquisition.
• Block (XYZ) tumbles 14% after the fintech platform reported third-quarter adjusted earnings and net revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Expedia (EXPE) rises 14% after the online travel agency’s results pointed to strong and resilient travel demand. Peer Airbnb (ABNB) also rallies after the company gave a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter.
• Globus Medical (GMED) soars 28% after the medical-device maker increased its forecast for full-year profit following third-quarter earnings that topped estimates. Truist Securities upgrades to buy from hold, citing much higher earnings power following results.
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) falls 30% after the biotech reported a patient died following treatment with its investigational gene-editing therapy to treat a rare disease.
• JFrog (FROG) soars 21% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• KKR & Co. (KKR) is up around 5% after the investment company reported assets under management that beat the average analyst estimate. Fee-related earnings also came in above expectations.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) falls 3% after the semiconductor-device company gave a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 4% after third-quarter results topped expectations. Analysts are positive about the energy drinks company’s gross margins and sales following the recent price hikes. Shares rose 4.1% in postmarket trading.
• Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) rises 3% after the computer hardware and storage company posted fiscal first quarter revenue that beat estimates. Second-quarter sales guidance also topped expectations. Analysts continue to see a strong AI-fueled tailwind for the company.
• Sweetgreen (SG) falls 13% after the restaurant chain cut its revenue guidance for the full year, missing the average analyst estimate. William Blair downgrades its rating on the stock.
• Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) falls 6% after delaying the release of Grand Theft Auto VI again, pushing back the much-anticipated video game by six months to November 2026.
• Wendy’s Co. (WEN) rises 7% after reporting that sales declined less than expected in the third quarter, a sign the burger chain is starting to rebound from a slump that’s eroded investor confidence this year.

In corporate news, Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, more than 75% of the votes cast in favor of the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader. Comcast is said to explore Warner Bros Discovery Bid, and ITV confirmed discussions with Comcast’s Sky about a potential division sale. 

Investors are heading into the end of a dizzying week that has delivered one of the toughest tests yet for the post-April AI-fueled rally amid growing doubts that the surge has gone too far.  Futures edge lower in early trading, capping a week in which investors weighed concerns over tech valuations, sparse economic data, mixed signals on interest rate cuts and an unclear jobs market picture. With another empty Friday for labor economists, Fed commentary is drawing greater scrutiny. Austan Goolsbee said a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown makes him uneasy about continuing interest-rate cuts. That follows Beth Hammack’s caution that high inflation poses a bigger risk than job market weakness. John Williams sees Fed reserves as close to the desired level.

“Sentiment is probably modestly cautious,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “Any reassuring news on employment data in the US, a potential end to the shutdown, or tariff news-flow could give markets a new boost.”

With the US benchmark down 1.8% for the week, a notable feature has been the lack of clear catalysts behind the swings. Traders say the choppiness may linger for a while but expect it to remain relatively shallow, with solid earnings and the prospect of eventual Fed easing continuing to underpin sentiment.

“On the very short term, let’s say until the end of the year, we really don’t see any big correction on the horizon, we don’t see any type of catalyst for that,” said Arnaud Faller, chief investment officer at CPR Asset Management.

As noted last night, AI enthusiasm is increasingly meeting skepticism, with concerns centering on a question that threatens to undermine the hype: Who is going to provide all of funds needed to finance the lofty ambitions of OpenAI? 
Opinions vary. DoubleLine Capital’s Robert Cohen warns on novel project structures, like off-balance sheet funding, and the uncertainty over whether such huge projects will make money. Delphine Arnaud, portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild, shares concerns over how quickly heavy capex can translate into earnings but doesn’t see a bubble-bursting scenario. Japan’s largest tech fund says AI stocks are not in a bubble and can rise further. 

The silver lining: according to BofA, flows remain supportive with US equity funds attracting $19.6 billion for the week ending Nov. 5, an eighth consecutive week of inflows. That said, volatility gauges remain in focus with the VIX index back above 20 briefly on Thursday, and the VVIX rose at one point to the highest since mid-October.

Semiconductors remain in the spotlight. Nvidia isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, said CEO Jensen Huang. The Netherlands is prepared to suspend its powers over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia if China allows exports of its critical chips again.

Turning to earnings, out of the 448 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 82% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 14% have missed.  KKR, Franklin Resources, Duke Energy and Constellation Software are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Analysts will be listening for Duke Energy details on new large-load customers like data centers as well as the utility’s plan for financing its rising capital expenditures. 

European stocks reverse an opening rise, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.4% on a drag from travel, insurance and tech stocks. Novo Nordisk shares dropped after the Danish drugmaker increased its offer for Metsera Inc. The media and autos sectors outperformed, while travel and leisure shares lagged, dragged lower by IAG. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Euronext shares rise 3% on third-quarter profit beat, improved cost guidance for the full year and a €250 million share buyback.
• ITV shares surge as much as 18% in London trading, after the broadcaster announced Sky’s owner Comcast is in preliminary discussions about a potential acquisition of its media and entertainment division.
• Monte Paschi shares rally as much as 5% to be the best performers on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index on Friday, after the Italian lender reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Amadeus shares rise as much as 4%, the most since July, after the company reported results that topped expectations in the third quarter.
• Arkema shares rise as much as 6.5%, the most since May, after the French chemicals company released earnings and lowered its guidance as expected.
• Aumovio shares rise as much as 6.5% after the auto parts supplier posted earnings ahead of expectations in the third quarter, despite a challenging sales backdrop.
• SBB shares advance as much as 13% after the Swedish landlord delivered net income of 803 million Swedish kronor ($83.8 million) for the third quarter.
• Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 2.3% after the Danish drugmaker said it expects a negative low single-digit impact on global sales growth in 2026 following Thursday’s deal with the Trump administration.
• Rightmove shares fall as much as 28% after the UK online property portal announced plans to step up investment in artificial intelligence, which analysts said will reduce profit estimates for 2026 onward.
• IAG shares drop as much as 9.8%, the most since April, after reporting a miss on Ebit in the key third quarter.
• Dino Polska shares drop as much as 10% after the company reported EPS and sales below estimates on Thursday.

Earlier in the sesssion, Asian stocks fell, with technology-heavy markets leading the decline, as concerns about swelling valuations put the regional gauge on track for its worst week in three months. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.3% on Friday, set for its worst week since August. Markets with large technology weightings, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, tracked declines in US peers, while Hong Kong also slipped and China’s benchmarks closed lower. Indonesia advanced, and Indian equities trimmed most of their earlier losses. Tech stocks will continue to be in focus for the week ahead, with several firms in the region reporting earnings including Tencent, SoftBank and Sony. India will also report inflation figures, while Hong Kong and Malaysia will release gross domestic product data.

In FX, the dollar strengthens against most G-10 currencies, with the yen, kiwi and sterling underperforming. Fed rate-cut bets into 2026 following hawkish comments from Goolsbee and Hammack.

In rates, bonds falling, with 10-year Treasury yields up two basis points and declines across Europe and the UK. Investors trimming

Treasury futures trade off session lows leading into the US session, with yields still slightly higher on the day across the curve.  US long-end yields are about 1bp cheaper on the day, steepening the curve by less than 1bp; 10-year near 4.09% also is about 1bp higher on the day, outperforming UK counterpart by about 2bp, Germany’s by about half a basis point. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and expected to be sparse. Thursday’s $9.7 billion haul brought weekly total to $55 billion, matching dealers’ projections. Focal points of US session include November preliminary University of Michigan sentiment, with October jobs report expected to be delayed due to the government shutdown. 

In commodities, gold rose and hovered around $4,000/oz. Oil prices rallying with Brent futures above $64/barrel.

The US economic calendar includes University of Michigan sentiment (10am), October NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and September consumer credit (3pm). October jobs report would ordinarily appear at 8:30am. Fed speaker slate includes Governor Miran (3pm)

Top Overnight News

• About 700 flights today were canceled by the four biggest US airlines as the government ordered reduced operations. Trump's administration finalized flight cuts to start at 4% on Friday and will ramp up to 10% on November 14th: BBG
• VP JD Vance said Americans are about to start suffering some very real consequences because of the government shutdown.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune will attempt to move legislation in the Senate on Friday that could lay the groundwork for reopening the government, although Democrats look like they could block this measure. Politico
• The Trump administration moved to appeal the judgement requiring full SNAP benefits to be paid by Friday.
• The European Commission is proposing a pause to parts of its landmark AI laws amid intense pressure from Big Tech companies and the US gov. Brussels is set to water down parts of its digital rule book, including its AI at that entered into force last year, in a decision on a so-called simplification package on Nov 19. FT
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said his company isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, waving off speculation it’s trying to engineer a return to that market. BBG
• China has begun designing a new rare earth licensing regime that could speed up shipments, but it is unlikely to amount to a complete rollback of restrictions as hoped by Washington, industry insiders said. RTRS
• China’s exports fell in October, with shipments to the U.S. dropping for a seventh straight month, as the growth that has powered the world’s second-largest economy this year took an unexpected stumble. Exports came in at -1.1% (vs. the Street +2.9%) and imports +1% (vs. the Street +2.7%). WSJ
• German exports rose in September, helped by a bump in trade with the U.S. after the European Union agreed to a deal on tariffs in the summer. Exports +1.4% (vs. the Street +0.5%) and imports +3.1% (vs. the Street +0.5%)
• Ukraine’s ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna said there have been “positive” talks on acquiring Tomahawk missiles, despite Trump’s reluctance. BBG
• NY Fed President John Williams said that the Federal Reserve could soon return to expanding its securities holdings, a week after the central bank said that it would wind down efforts to shrink its balance sheet on Dec. 1.  The net bond purchases would be the next, long-planned phase of the Fed’s approach to matching the levels of cash-like assets available to banks to their needs—not a new effort to stimulate the economy.  WSJ
• The longest US government shutdown in history isn’t driving the recent softening in markets, but still, they aren’t holding up as well as they did during 2018-2019, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. And missing paychecks and data delays may make the situation worse. BBG
• US Justice Department is said to be investigating the DC mayor over a foreign trip, according to The New York Times.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
• DAX -0.6%
• CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.1%
• VIX +0.8 points at 20.28
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1222.16
• euro unchanged at $1.1547
• WTI crude +1.4% at $60.26/barrel

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posts that he's thrilled to announce an incredible trade and economic deal between the US and Uzbekistan in which the latter will be purchasing and investing almost USD 35bln over the next three years, and more than USD 100bln in the next 10 years in key American sectors, including critical minerals, aviation, automotive parts, infrastructure, agriculture, energy & chemicals, information technology, and others.
• US is to block NVIDIA's (NVDA) sale of scaled-back AI chips to China, according to The Information.
• Netherlands is said to be ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes, according to Bloomberg.
• China has begun working on rules to ease rare earth export curbs, according to Reuters citing industry sources.
• China's Commerce Ministry suspends more rare earths related export control measures.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the risk-off mood stateside, where sentiment was weighed on by weak US labour market proxies and AI concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by weak Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech and the top-weighted financial industry, with the latter pressured as Macquarie shares retreated on earnings disappointment. Nikkei 225 briefly fell beneath the 50,000 level after recent tech woes, currency strength and disappointing Household Spending data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in the largest weekly drain since early 2024 and as participants awaited Chinese trade data which ultimately showed a surprise contraction in exports, while it was also reported that the US is to block NVIDIA's sale of scaled-back AI chips to China.

Top Asian News

• PBoC injected CNY 141.7bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 1.40%, while its operations resulted in a weekly net drain of CNY 1.57tln which is the largest fund withdrawal since January 2024.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened with a slight positive bias, but slipped soon after the cash open to display a mostly negative picture in Europe. Initial strength perhaps a cooling from the prior day's pressure, but ultimately conformed to the subdued APAC session overnight. European sectors began the day with a positive bias, but now mixed. Autos takes the top spot, following modest post-earning upside in Daimler Truck (+0.9%, poor results but sees strong EBIT). Moreover, Netherlands is said to be ready to drop control of Nexperia if chip supply resumes, according to Bloomberg - further boosting sentiment for the sector. To the downside, IAG (-7%) tumbles after it noted that Transatlantic weakness hit sales.

Top European news

• Citi on the BoE, after November's meeting, cautiously brings back the call for a December cut, but highlights the two sets of data and the budget before then as points of uncertainty.

FX

• DXY has recovered a portion of the prior session’s losses but remains capped below the 100.00 handle, with the rebound tempered by a combination of soft US data and renewed trade-related concerns. The greenback came under pressure yesterday following a trifecta of weak labour market proxies, underscoring signs of cooling momentum in the US economy. Additionally, reports that Washington is set to block NVIDIA’s sale of scaled-back AI chips to China introduced a fresh layer of trade-related risk. On the Fed, Williams avoided remarks on near-term policy. Ahead, on the data front, Prelim University of Michigan sentiment data for November is likely to see the headline slip to 53.2 from 53.6, conditions rise to 59.2 from 58.6. DXY is consolidating modestly above recent lows, with the index last around the 99.85 mark and well within Thursday's hefty 99.67-100.11 range.
• EUR/USD found resistance at 1.1550 but is holding above the 1.15 handle, retaining the bulk of its recent gains following the USD’s broader retracement. Germany's trade surplus this morning narrowed to EUR 15.3bln in September (exp. 16.8bln, prev. 17.2bln), with no notable move seen in the EUR. EUR/USD remains marginally within Thursday's 1.1490-1.1552 range in a current 1.1530-1.1551 band.
• JPY is the clear laggard across the G10 space, retracing a portion of yesterday’s haven-driven gains. Overnight price action was choppy, with USD/JPY oscillating around the 153.00 mark amid a mix of lingering safe-haven demand and softer domestic data, as Japan’s Household Spending figures disappointed expectations. The pair now trades toward the upper end of a relatively contained 152.81–153.54 intraday range, compared to Thursday’s broader 152.83–154.14 parameters. Overall, price action suggests consolidation rather than fresh directional impetus.
• GBP/USD has eased modestly after yesterday’s advance, which came despite the BoE’s dovish hold and was largely driven by broader USD weakness. The pair briefly dipped below the 1.31 handle (low at 1.3097) after touching a session high of 1.3142, marking a retracement from yesterday’s BoE-day range of 1.3042–1.3142. On the domestic front, Halifax data painted a firmer picture of the UK housing market, with prices rising +0.6% M/M in October (exp. +0.1%, prev. -0.3%), pushing annual growth to +1.9% Y/Y (prev. +1.3%). Fiscal headlines also drew attention, with reports that Chancellor Reeves told the Budget watchdog she intends to raise income tax as part of efforts to repair the public finances. Further speculation points to a potential 2p income tax increase paired with a targeted 2p National Insurance cut, alongside consideration of narrowing NI relief above GBP 50,270 and a possible reduction in the annual cash ISA allowance to GBP 12,000 (previously touted GBP 10,000 and from current GBP 20,000).
• Antipodeans are mixed today with the Aussie winning on the AUD/NZD cross, benefiting from stronger copper prices despite weak Chinese trade data. In brief, Chinese exports unexpectedly slipped for the first time since October; but it is worth caveating that the prior month surprised to the upside which captured some front-loading ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, which has since passed without issue.

Fixed Income

• A contained start to the session for USTs but there is a modest bearish bias owing to the slightly constructive trade in US equity futures, though magnitudes are modest. A lot of Fed speak in recent trade. This morning, Williams spoke at an ECB conference, discussing reserve management bond buying as a technical operation. Ahead, we have remarks from Miran (voter) once again and Jefferson (voter). Jefferson, the more interesting of the two, as he generally has a dovish stance, so it will be pertinent to determine if his bias remains the same or has moderated, in the context of Powell’s hawkish press conference. Jefferson last spoke at the start of October and said that while not having BLS data was less than ideal, there was enough information to do the job and was confident in reaching the inflation target. Thus far, USTs in a 112-22 to 112-28 band notching downside of just 4+ ticks at most, comfortably within Thursday’s 112-10 to 112-30 confines.
• Bunds also experienced a slightly softer start to the day, as outlined above. Early doors, a strong set of German trade data for September sent Bunds to a 129.02 low. A strong series that bodes well for the German recovery narrative and follows on from a rebound in industrial production data for the September period (as expected). Nonetheless, the narrative for Germany remains one of structural weakness, but with some signs of a recovery emerging. Since, the move has extended marginally to a 128.99 base, matching the trough from Thursday and in reach of Wednesday’s WTD 128.96 low.
• Gilts opened on the backfoot, posting losses of just over 10 ticks before slipping further to a 93.10 low. If the move continues, we look to Thursday’s 93.03 WTD base. The pullback today comes after the upside seen on Thursday by the BoE, as while desks are aligning around a December cut as being the emerging base case, that view is contingent on the two sets of data and budget due before the December meeting. BoE’s Bailey due to speak once again today, though he is unlikely to add much vs his presser and subsequent media rounds on Thursday; full Newsquawk review available on the headline feed. Elsewhere, the budget remains in focus and an increase to income tax is now very likely following a Times article that Chancellor Reeves has reportedly told the watchdog she intends to increase the measure. She is reportedly considering a 2p increase to income tax and a 2p cut to NI, echoing reports on the weekend that suggested as much, in a bid to move the burden away from workers and onto other groups.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have reversed Thursday’s losses as risk sentiment continues to shift amid AI concerns and weak US labour market. WTI and Brent oscillated in a tight c. USD 0.20/bbl for the majority of the APAC session before bidding higher and remaining near session highs as European trade continues.
• After Thursday’s choppy price action, spot XAU has continued to grind higher throughout APAC trade and into the European session. XAU started the day at USD 3977/oz and bid higher straight from the open to a peak of USD 4003/oz before pulling back slightly to a low of USD 3985/oz. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal has extended higher and is currently trading at session highs at USD 4010/oz.
• Base metals are trading rangebound as the European session gets underway, and as it steadies from Thursday’s risk-off environment. 3M LME Copper continues to oscillate in a tight USD 10.68k-10.75k/t band as the market awaits a new catalyst.
• Chinese Securities Regulator approved registration of platinum and palladium futures and options.
• Morgan Stanley says new projects successfully coming online in H1-2026 will be the catalyst for Dutch TTF to move below EUR 30/MWh by H2-2026.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said Iran has been asking if US sanctions can be lifted, while he responded 'very soon', when asked when the international stability force for Gaza will be on the ground.
• US President Trump said he held a great call with Israeli PM Netanyahu and Kazakhstan's President Tokayev, while Trump noted that Kazakhstan is the first country of his second term to join the Abraham Accords and the first of many, with more nations lining up to embrace peace and prosperity through my Abraham Accords.
• Ukrainian ambassador said her country is engaged in “positive” talks about buying Tomahawk missiles and other long-range weapons
• US Senate voted 51-49 to block a measure barring US President Trump from launching war on Venezuela.
• Japan's government said North Korea fired what could be a ballistic missile which fell shortly after, while Japanese PM Takaichi said North Korea's missile likely fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Nov P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 53, prior 53.6
• 3:00 pm: Sep Consumer Credit, est. 10.23b, prior 0.36b
• 7:00 am: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on AI and Economy
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although the market feels a bit tired at the moment I'm positively bouncing this morning as last night was the first time in a couple of weeks that I haven't woke up around 2-3am in pain after my recent back operation. However if you really want to understand pain, last night I was trying to teach two 8-yr olds decimals. It was 99.999999% excruciating.
In a parallel universe, and one where I don't have to teach Maths, we would this morning be eagerly awaiting the US payrolls report later today. But with its extended absence from the calendar, the past couple of days have seen outsized market reactions to second-tier US employment data that would normally serve as the amuse-bouche to today’s main event.

Wednesday saw a sharp yield sell-off following a solid ADP employment report and then better ISM services data. However, that move was completely reversed yesterday after a weak US job cuts release, with the 10yr Treasury yield falling -7.6bps — its biggest daily decline since the US-China trade escalation on October 10. This triggered a global risk-off move, with the S&P 500 down -1.12%, the Nasdaq off -1.90% and the Stoxx 600 -0.70%. Pricing of a Fed rate cut in December rose to 70% (+8pp on the day).

Starting with the US data, investors were rattled by the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report showing October job cuts up +175.3% year-on-year, totalling 153,074 — the highest October figure since 2003. Meanwhile, Revelio Labs’ payroll estimate dropped -9.1k, driven largely by -22.2k losses in government employment. These figures contrasted with Wednesday’s more upbeat ADP and ISM services data than expected.

The backdrop led to a strong rally in Treasuries, with the 10yr yield down -7.6bps to 4.08%, and similar declines for the 2yr (-7.6bps) and 30yr (-5.8bps). Normally, private data prints don’t move markets this much, but the government shutdown has amplified their impact. Equities saw broad declines, with the Russell 2000 down -1.86%, the S&P 500 -1.12%, and the Nasdaq -1.90%. The Magnificent 7 dropped -2.02%, led by Nvidia’s -3.65% decline while Tesla fell -3.50%. The latter move came before Tesla’s shareholders approved Elon Musk’s new pay package yesterday evening. This could reach a remarkable $1 trillion if Tesla hits all the maximum milestones that include a more than quintupling of its market cap to $8.5trn.

While the equity losses were more modest outside of tech, other risk assets also struggled, with US HY credit spreads rising +7bps, while Bitcoin sunk -2.49%. The VIX volatility index briefly moved above the symbolic 20 level before ending the day at a three-week high of 19.50 (+1.49pts on the day).

Central bank pricing was also affected, with futures raising the probability of a December rate cut to 70%, up from 62% the day before. Looking further out, the number of cuts priced by December 2026 rose +8.2bps to 85bps, weakening the dollar index by -0.47%. These moves came despite hawkish-leaning remarks by Fed officials. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted labour market stability and expressed caution about further rate cuts given the lack of inflation data due to the shutdown. Cleveland Fed President Hammack again struck a hawkish tone, focusing on inflation risks and suggesting that the Fed’s stance was “barely restrictive”. St Louis Fed President Musalem similarly said the policy was now "somewhere between modestly restrictive and neutral”.

With all the uncertainty around the state of the US economy, it's interesting to highlight a couple of the latest reports by our economists that go against some of the prevailing narratives. In the first (see here), our Chief US Economist Matt Luzzetti finds that labour market data do not support the narrative of labour hoarding as a driver of the recent low firing regime. In the second (see here), Peter Sidorov looks at the two-speed US economy through the lens of the credit cycle and argues that the underperforming rate-sensitive sectors are more likely to see improvement than further deterioration over the coming quarters. So food for thought.

Turning to the US shutdown, hopes for resolution swung back and forth over the past 24 hours. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has proposed a Senate vote today on a new continuing resolution that would re-open the government through January. According to reports, this would include a three-bill spending package covering some items that have been negotiated with Democrats but not the extension of expiring health subsidies. Politico reports that Democrats are expected to block today’s procedural vote, seeing Tuesday’s weak election performance by the Republicans as reducing the need to rush to give up negotiating power. Still, it’s a developing story to watch today and into the weekend. Polymarket currently assigns a 55% chance of resolution by November 15, and a 93% chance by November 30.

Over in Europe, the BoE held rates at 4% as expected, but the decision was more dovish than anticipated. The vote split 5-4, with four members favouring a 25bp cut. Governor Bailey noted that September’s 3.8% inflation was “likely to be the peak.” Our UK economist highlights that the BoE’s forward guidance now states that “if progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path,” with the word “careful” removed, which had been there alongside “gradual”. See our economist’s review of the meeting here and updated views. Gilt yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr down -2.9bps, a larger move than seen in European peers. 

Elsewhere in Europe, equities declined amid weak data and some renewed concerns about France. Euro Area retail sales for September fell -0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), German industrial production rose +1.3% (vs. +3.0% expected), and UK construction PMI came in at 44.1 (vs. 46.9 expected). This contributed to the risk-off tone, with the STOXX 600 down -0.70%, the DAX -1.31%, the FTSE 100 -0.42%, and the CAC 40 -1.36%. Bond yields followed suit, with 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps), and BTPs (-1.1bps) all lower.

Asian markets opened very weak this morning but are recovering a bit as I type with US futures edging higher. The Kospi (-2.06%), Nikkei (-1.71%), Hang Seng (-0.92%), and S&P/ASX 200 (-0.66%) are all in negative territory but above their low. Mainland Chinese equities are fairly flat even as China’s exports contracted unexpectedly, with yoy exports at -1.1% (vs. +2.9% expected) and yoy imports at +1.0% (vs. +2.7% expected). Electrical exports were down -8% mom which hints at the fact that we might be seeing payback for earlier front loading ahead of tariffs. Mainland Chinese equities have clawed back earlier losses to be broadly flat though. S&P 500 (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.28%) futures are recovering this morning and 10yr USTs are back up +1.5bps to 4.10%.

Looking ahead today, data releases include Germany and France’s September trade balances, and Canada’s October employment report. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Williams, Jefferson and Miran, the ECB’s Nagel and Elderson, and the BoE’s Pill. Earnings releases include Constellation Energy and KKR.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 08:48

Treasury Probes $9 Billion Small-Business Deals For Fraud After ATI Government Solutions Bombshell

Weeks after O'Keefe Media Group released a bombshell investigation exposing how ATI Government Solutions exploited minority-preference programs to secure $100 million in no-bid federal contracts, while subcontracting out most of the work, the Wall Street Journal reports a significant new development: the U.S. Treasury Department has launched an investigation into $9 billion in small-business contracting amid alarming concerns over fraud and abuse in preference-based programs.

Treasury investigators are focusing on pass-through companies that have misused preference-based contracting programs, including the Small Business Administration's 8(a) Business Development Program. The 8(a) program allows qualifying individuals, those who own at least 51% of their companies and have personal net worths below $850,000, to obtain no-bid federal contracts.

BREAKING: U.S. Treasury Department launches investigation into 8(a) small business contracts worth $9 billion following O’Keefe Media Group undercover sting.

Officials say firms may have funneled deals through small business “pass-through” schemes - prompting Treasury & the SBA… https://t.co/3dezCYl5lr

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) November 7, 2025

Bloomberg quoted SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler as saying her team directed an audit of the 8(a) program, finding what they believe is "rampant fraud – and increasingly egregious instances of abuse." 

Loeffler noted, "This administration will not tolerate DEI-based contracting and abuse that compromises opportunity for legitimate and eligible small businesses." 

WSJ quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as saying, "Treasury will not tolerate fraudulent misuse of federal contracting programs," adding, "These initiatives must benefit legitimate small businesses that deliver measurable value to the government and the public."

In June, SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler launched a formal investigation into the 8(a) program following mounting allegations of fraud. Then, last month, James O'Keefe released a bombshell undercover report exposing how ATI Government Solutions exploited minority-preference programs to rake in more than $100 million in no-bid federal contracts.

$100 Billion Federal Contracting Scam Exposed: 8(a) Firm Admits to Violating Federal Law, Using Minority-Owned Status as a Front to Obtain $100M+ No-Bid Government Contracts While Outsourcing 80% of the Work.

ATI Government Solutions Contract Manager, Melayne Cromwell Admits to… pic.twitter.com/o7EQ6mKZtY

— James O'Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) October 20, 2025

Last month, Loeffler and Bessent jointly said the Treasury would suspend all contracting activity with ATI Government Solutions in response to O'Keefe's reporting. 

The latest data from Bloomberg Government shows that obligations tied to 8(a) vendors hit a record $41 billion in fiscal year 2024, with the Pentagon awarding about half of that. 

It's long been an open secret in the Capital Beltway that some firms use pass-through entities or front companies to secure contracts they wouldn't otherwise qualify for. This is precisely the kind of corruption the American people gave President Trump a mandate to dismantle, rooting out the parasites that leech off taxpayers.

And by the way, Dear White House:

DEAR TRUMP TEAM @WhiteHouse @RapidResponse47

Under 40 Trump Approval spiked EXACTLY when @DOGE interest spiked.

Dismantle the status quo with reckless abandon, or it's socialism for the youth. https://t.co/i2g24sZFxB pic.twitter.com/9PdNXqqTB8

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster) November 6, 2025

"Dismantle the status quo with reckless abandon, or it's socialism for the youth," Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports wrote on X. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 08:25

From Revelio Labs: Employment — October 2025

Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In October, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the government sector.

Click on graph for larger image.

We need the BLS data!

Food Banks All Over The US Are Being Overwhelmed By A Tsunami Of Hungry People

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

As grocery prices have risen, demand at food banks throughout the country has surged to very alarming levels.  At the end of 2024, I wrote about how demand at food banks had risen to record levels all over the United States.  Unfortunately, demand has continued to rise in 2025, and now the government shutdown has shifted America’s hunger crisis into overdrive.  

Millions of very hungry people are showing up at food banks looking for something to eat, and resources are being stretched to the limit.

There is no area of the nation that is not being affected by this crisis.

For example, it is being reported that food banks in Iowa are experiencing “record demand” during this government shutdown…

Food pantries across Iowa are seeing record demand as families wait for the federal government to restore their food assistance benefits.

So what does “record demand” look like?

Well, at one food bank in Iowa they are serving about twice as many people as usual…

While families wait, many are turning to food pantries for help. At WayPoint Resources in Waukee, the line for food stretched out the door Monday.

“We just opened at noon today. And already in that first hour, we saw double the number of people that we normally see,” said Melissa Stimple, the center’s executive director.

We are seeing similar things happen in other parts of the nation too.

In southwest Texas, one network of food banks is now serving nearly 170,000 people per week…

Eric Cooper, president and CEO of San Antonio Food Bank, which serves 29 counties in southwest Texas, said the number of families seeking help has increased since it was first announced that there would be a disruption in SNAP benefits should the government shutdown continue.

Cooper said San Antonio Food Bank, which is part of the nonprofit organization Feeding America, typically feeds 105,000 to 120,000 people per week but is now seeing close to 170,000 people per week.

When you suddenly go from serving 120,000 people per week to serving 170,000 people per week, it is going to be very difficult to have enough food for everyone.

Often those at the end of food bank lines end up with nothing, and that is why so many people are lining up early.

On Monday, the line at one Bay Area food bank “stretched all the way down the sidewalk”…

On Monday, in a parking lot of Contra Costa College in San Pablo, the line for food stretched all the way down the sidewalk.

“We’re expecting at least 500 families to come out to our distribution,” said program coordinator Geo Dinoso.

When he opened the food line, the crowd was a little hard to believe, but for Dinoso, not very surprising.

In Detroit, “dozens of cars” were “lined around the block” yesterday morning…

On Detroit’s east side, dozens of cars lined around the block at Forgotten Harvest’s Jermaine Jackson Academy drive-thru food pantry Monday morning. It was the location’s first time operating since SNAP funding lapsed this month.

Kim Lewis, who runs the site, said her group faced cold weather and rain to serve more than 250 families.

The “higher demand” was clear – volunteers described cars waiting along Gratiot Avenue hours before the pantry’s opening. Forty minutes after the site closed, the group was still loading up cars, only stopping after supplies depleted.

In Colorado, approximately 100 vehicles were lined up at a food bank in Greeley before the doors were even opened…

About 100 cars lined up along H Street near Weld Food Bank in Greeley on Monday morning before the organization opened its doors, their drivers and passengers waiting to pick up food on the third day of a lapse in funding for the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

Staff and volunteers worked through a typical lunch break to meet demand, maneuvering shopping carts full of food to their awaiting recipients. By the end of the day, the food bank served about 2,200 people, according to Weston Edmunds, the food bank’s director of marketing and communications.

This is what our country looks like now.

Millions of formerly middle class Americans are now in desperate need of food.

I have been ranting about the destruction of the middle class for years, but a lot of people out there didn’t take me seriously.

Now look at what has happened.

If you think that we are facing this crisis just because of the current government shutdown, you are way off.

One food bank in Dayton, Ohio was experiencing a dramatic spike in demand “long before the shutdown ever happened”…

Howard said the increased need at the Pantry started long before the shutdown ever happened, and it’s only gotten worse as a result.

“Year to date we’re 30% higher than last year. This week alone we signed up 23 new families,” she said.

The Pantry served 18,000 people in 2024, 60% of whom which were adults over 60 years old and children under 18.

As I have carefully documented, hunger has been rising in the United States for years.

And now we are rapidly getting to a point where there simply will not be enough food for everyone.

On Monday, large numbers of people lined up to get some food at a facility in Portland.  Unfortunately, those that were waiting at the end of the line faced the possibility of ending up with nothing because there just wasn’t enough food…

The situation has led to unprecedented demand at local food providers, such as the Blanchet House in Northwest Portland, where lines stretched two blocks on Monday morning as people waited in the rain for a meal.

Julia Showers, communications director for the Blanchet House, noted the unusual demand: “We’re seeing lines, historic lines. Our staff had to go out before we closed the doors and just let everyone know that we have to get a line here. Some people might not get a plate.”

The longer this government shutdown continues, the worse things will get.

The same thing could be said about our air traffic crisis.

According to ABC News, the U.S. Department of Transportation “might be forced to shut down the airspace in certain parts of the country if the government shutdown continues into next week”…

The Department of Transportation might be forced to shut down the airspace in certain parts of the country if the government shutdown continues into next week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Tuesday.

“So if, if you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos,” he said. “You will see mass flight delays. You’ll see mass cancelations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers.”

We have never seen anything quite like this before.

Air traffic controllers are required to work without pay through the government shutdown, but vast numbers of them are choosing not to show up for work…

Nearly 50% of all major air traffic control facilities face staffing shortages, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. Air traffic controllers are required to work without pay for the duration of the shutdown.

About 13,000 air traffic controllers are currently working without pay, according to the FAA. On Friday, the agency said that 80% of New York area staff had called out.

Hopefully the government shutdown will be resolved soon and air traffic will return to normal.

But even if the government shutdown ends, America’s growing food crisis is not going to go away.

Food prices will continue to rise, and global food supplies are just going to continue to get even tighter.

There are multiple long-term trends that are playing havoc with global food production.

I warned that this would result in higher food prices in wealthy western nations, and that is precisely what has transpired.

Sadly, this is just the beginning.

We are going to continue to lose valuable top soil, fertilizer prices will continue to spike, weather patterns are only going to get crazier, and our planet will continue to become increasingly unstable.

On top of everything else, we continue to poison our air, our water and our soil in countless ways.

There is only one way that all of this is going to end, and I don’t have to tell you that it isn’t going to be pretty.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 08:05

Europe Poised To Roll Back the World's Toughest AI Laws 

The world's first comprehensive law governing the development, deployment, and use of artificial intelligence was formally adopted by the Europeans in 2024 and began taking effect later that year. However, key provisions of the AI Act may be put on hold by the European Commission amid mounting pressure from Big Tech and the Trump administration. This all comes as the West fights to stay technologically relevant in the world, fracturing into two, as China and the East develop and deploy AI of their own. 

Financial Times reporter Barbara Moens writes that the European Commission is preparing to pause parts of the AI Act as part of a new "simplification package" set to be unveiled on November 19. The move to recalibrate some of the world's strictest AI regulations follows intense lobbying from Big Tech and mounting pressure from the Trump administration.

Under the existing framework designed to promote safe, transparent, traceable, and non-discriminatory AI systems, some of the world's toughest rules, particularly those governing "high-risk" AI applications affecting safety and fundamental rights, won't take effect until August 2026. Under the draft proposal, companies that breach these provisions could receive a one-year grace period, pushing enforcement back to 2027. The Commission also plans to delay fines for transparency violations until August 2027, giving firms additional time to comply.

"The draft also looks to make the compliance burden for companies easier and centralise enforcement through its own AI office," FT's Moens noted in the report.

The plan to delay some of the AI Act could improve competitiveness against companies working on the AI application layer to deploy systems and compete against China more effectively. 

She also noted, "A number of companies, including Facebook and Instagram owner Meta, have warned that the EU's approach to regulating AI risks cutting the continent off from accessing cutting-edge services." 

If the AI Act is partially delayed, it could ease concerns that Europe's weird over regulatory obsession is crushing innovation and putting the continent at a disadvantage in the global AI race. And if European leaders are finally willing to roll back overreaching policies, they should also reconsider their disastrous green globalist agenda that has already crippled the continent into submission.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 07:45

The Risk Of AI Isn't Skynet

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith,

The risk that AI transitions from Servant to Master is dramatically appealing--Skynet!--but the real risks are in the mundane realms of the socio-economic order. As I explain in my new book Investing In Revolution, technological revolutions share the same dynamic: those profiting from the innovations push them pell-mell, without regard for future consequences, as the goal is to expand as quickly as possible to achieve market dominance.

This is entirely understandable, as pausing to assess potential pitfalls will effectively cede control to competitors.

Society--all of civilization that isn’t reducible to financial data--bears the consequences, but over a timespan far longer than the initial expansion of the technology. In other words, the immediate rewards of the technological revolution go to the fast-moving innovators while the broader consequences--both the benefits and the downsides--impact the socio-cultural-political realms over a much longer time frame.

This creates a time-response lag, where society must absorb and assess the consequences years or even decades after the initial expansion of the technology. The organizational tool of innovators is the corporation, a financial structure with a single goal--expand revenues and profits by any means available--and a quasi-military command-control-communications (a.k.a. 3C) hierarchy.

This structure meshes perfectly with markets, which price everything in the moment: markets lack mechanisms to price future consequences; they only price production, transport, currencies, materials, marketing, inventory, etc. in the present.

In contrast, society is characterized by a multitude of interests and structures in various stages of advocacy. There is no one single goal or hierarchy, and the upsides and downsides of technological changes are typically distributed very unevenly.

Those positioned to reap the rewards gain ground, those positioned to bear the brunt of negative consequences lose ground. Each will then advocate for controls or let-it-run-wild accordingly.

The American ethos favors the let-it-run-wild and pick up the pieces later approach to technological revolutions. This serves the interests of the initial innovators and speculators, who can amass great fortunes in the initial speculative frenzy to get on board. This has played out in railroads, autos, radio, TV, the Internet, and so on.

Each revolution is characterized as creative destruction the buggy whip industry is wiped out, but a larger industry is created.

Here is where correlation is confused with causation: the fact that this cycle has played out in the recent past does not make it a Law of Nature, i.e. a predictable manifestation of causation.

Which brings us to AI. AI is different: it doesn’t generate a need for more human labor as it expands, it replaces human labor. This is its implicit raison d’etre, reason to exist.

The rewards go to the initial innovators’ corporations and speculators, and the consequences fall on a society ill-prepared to assess them, much less limit them.

AI is different in another way: it generates a compelling facsimile of human characteristics and interactions, facsimiles of thought and knowledge that we take as “real” because they’re in “our language.”

But as I explain in my book Ultra-Processed Life, these facsimiles are all processed in ways we cannot discern: everything is processed in black boxes following scripts and agendas that we can’t see.

What’s presented as an accurate representation is actually an ultra-processed distillation that leaves out everything that unwieldy or unwelcome. We’re told that what’s the screen is real, but it’s not; it’s the equivalent of an orange-colored ultra-processed, sugary, salty, greasy goo being presented as a “healthy snack alternative” to a raw carrot.

What’s being lost in substituting AI’s ultra-processed facsimiles occurs beneath our perception. We don’t notice what’s been lost, and so we can no longer make a realistic assessment: that capacity has been lost.

AI is also accelerating the process of technological change, a process that’s been accelerating for 60 years. Alvin Toffler’s 1970 book Future Shock described the disorienting nature of technology-driven change, a theme updated by Douglas Rushkoff in his 2004 book, Present Shock.

Put these dynamics together and we reach this analogy: we’re children playing with matches and gasoline in a drought-stricken forest of dry deadwood. Even as the formidable resources of big-tech corporations and the state rush to secure AI supremacy, we may have it backwards: those squandering resources to build out a state-corporate Skynet “to serve humanity” are speeding our self-destruction, while those societies that limit their exposure to AI’s ultra-processed goo will emerge as the winners rather than the losers.

Just as a reminder of what’s being gambled on AI supremacy: it’s not just financial capital, it’s everything.

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition) through November. Introduction (free)

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 07:20

Visualizing How Much Gold Is Left To Mine On Earth

Gold’s scarcity is one reason it remains a sought-after safe haven. In 2025, the metal has seen its strongest rally in years, climbing over 50% as global investors react to uncertainty in the world economy.

If all the gold ever mined were melted together—about 216,000 tonnes—it would form a cube only 22 meters tall, roughly the height of a four-story building.

Meanwhile, the world’s proven, economically recoverable gold reserves total around 64,000 tonnes, forming a smaller 15-meter cube.

In this infographic, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti uses data from the World Gold Council and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with additional historical context from Encyclopaedia Britannica, to put the total quantity of gold into perspective.

How Much Gold Exists—and How Much Is Left

Nearly three-quarters of all known gold has already been extracted. As new discoveries become rarer and mining costs rise, the focus increasingly shifts to recycling and improving recovery technology.

 

The Modern Era Drove Most Extraction

 

Two-thirds of all gold ever mined has been extracted since 1950, thanks to technological advances and industrial demand. The post-war era ushered in large-scale open-pit mines and efficient refining techniques. Today, extraction rates are slowing as ore grades decline, but the overall above-ground stock continues to grow slowly each year.

Of all gold mined, about 45% exists as jewelry, while 22% is held as bars and coins. Central banks collectively own about 17%, using gold as a strategic hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability. Gold is also use in technology and other industries, powering electronics and aerospace components.

Gold’s Rally in 2025

Gold prices hit $4,000 for the first time ever in 2025, as investors sought a safe haven from a weaker dollar, geopolitical volatility, and economic uncertainty.

At the same time, China and other countries have been diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries and into gold, following Washington’s stiff sanctions on Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Retail investors have also piled into gold as a hedge against stubborn inflation.

Can More Gold Be Found?

Although economic gold reserves in the ground sit at around 64,000 tonnes, this doesn’t count all the gold left.

There are more undiscovered gold deposits out there, and as the price of gold rises, smaller or low-grade deposits become more economically feasible to mine. High prices also create the incentive for explorers to look for more gold, which leads to new discoveries.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: The 5 Largest Gold Producing Countries (2010–2024) on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• No Cussing on Bloomberg: No one would be shocked to hear profanity on Wall Street from the trading floor to the boardroom. Everywhere that is except the main avenue of communication: the Bloomberg. For more than 25 years the platform that investment professionals use to get prices, news and communicate has blocked profanity. Here is the backstory… (Ted Merz)

• The Ozempic effect is finally showing up in obesity data: The decline of one of America’s biggest health crises, in two charts. (Vox)

• Why Poker is Used to Train Traders: SIG treats poker as a structured way to train probabilistic thinking. Jerrod structures the flow of the video as a parallel between 3 concepts in poker and their analogs in trading. Ante Decision practice Interpreting outcomes You’ve heard this before — both poker and trading require making decisions with incomplete information. But a more subtle point is about speed. The goal in both is the same. (Moon Tower)

• Don’t Let the Fed Become a Wing of Mar-a-Lago: Kevin Hassett, Co-Author of 1999’s “Dow 36,000,” Is Unfit to Run the Central Bank. (Intrinsic Value)

• Cockroaches in the Coal Mine: One of the most prominent characteristics of the financial markets that I’ve detected over the years is their tendency to obsess over a single topic at a given point in time. The topic eventually changes to another, but before it does, it’s often the thing people want to discuss to the near exclusion of everything else. Today it’s the recent string of episodes in sub-investment grade credit. (Oaktree Capital)

• ICE Sends a Chill Through Home Construction Industry: As ICE agents fan out to  deport undocumented immigrants, their enforcement actions are creating unease among workers on building sites across the U.S., deepening the already severe labor shortage, slowing the pace of construction and driving up costs, industry officials and contractors say. (NPR)

• The 6 biggest questions about adult ADHD, answered by a neuroscientist: ADHD diagnosis has risen in recent years, particularly among adults. But we need to improve how we view and treat it. (BBC Science Focus Magazine)

• ‘None of This Is Good for Republicans’  Gerrymandering efforts look different after Election Day. (The Atlantic)  see also Six election results that didn’t make the headlines: In purple states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and deep red states like Texas and Mississippi, voters rejected the MAGA agenda. Here are six results from the 2025 elections that flew under the radar. (Popular Information)

• The Milky Way is probably full of dead civilizations: Most of the alien civilizations that ever dotted our galaxy have probably killed themselves off already. That’s the takeaway of a new study. (Live Science)

• Louis C.K. Doesn’t Need Everyone to Like Him: The comedian, who this month releases a coming-of-age debut novel, on rebuilding his career, why he doesn’t believe in comedy as therapy and what it’s like to be ‘a secret superstar.’ (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Brandon Zick, CIO of at Ceres Partners, where he is responsible for all investments, including Ceres Partners flagship farmland fund and Ceres Food & Agriculture private equity strategies. He serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Advisory Council and Small Business, Agriculture & Labor sub-council. Ceres was just purchased by Wisdom Tree Investing.

 

It’s STILL the Economy (stupid)

Source: AP via Bruce Mehlman

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Racism Fears: Is The UK Failing To Section Dangerous African-Caribbean Schizophrenics?

Authored by via Paul Birch via The Daily Sceptic,

It’s become an all-too-familiar tale. An individual who, at this stage, is thought to have been known to the police and mental health services, is alleged to have carried out a random, marauding knife attack.

Anthony Williams appeared in court this week charged with 11 counts of attempted murder after multiple stabbings occurred on a Doncaster to London train on Saturday November 1st in an incident which has shocked the nation. The 11th count is for a separate alleged attack against a 14 year-old that took place on the Docklands Light Railway in east London earlier the same day, as we’ve since learnt. Thankfully, at the time of writing, nobody has died as a result of these attacks.

These incidents follow several high-profile cases where men of black African heritage who were known by the authorities to be dangerous have been allowed to roam free in the community, either as a result of clinical decisions or ineptitude, and who have gone on to commit some of the most shocking crimes in modern history.

There was Zephaniah McLeod, who murdered 23 year-old library intern Jacob Billington during unprovoked attacks on eight people in Birmingham in September 2020. McLeod had been released from prison months earlier with no restrictions or supervision, despite experiencing delusions, refusing to take medication and making weapons in his cell.

Pensioner Thomas O’Halloran was killed by Lee Byer in August 2022 while Byer was suffering from ‘demand delusions’ and only five days after his being released from prison.

Valdo Calocane, in June 2023, fatally stabbed students Barnaby Webber and Grace O’Malley-Kumar and caretaker Ian Coates during a rampage on the streets of Nottingham. He had not been forced to take injectable anti-psychotic medication because he “did not like needles”, a report on his care found. In addition, he was allowed to live in the community despite the fact that he had a history of violence, and did not even agree that he was mentally ill.

The most notorious of all is, of course, Axel Rudakubana, responsible for the slaughter of children Alice da Silva Aguiar, Bebe King and Elsie Dot Stancombe at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class in Southport, Liverpool, in July 2024. There had been ample warning signs leading up to the atrocity. Axel Rudakubana first became known to a range of agencies in 2019. He was permanently excluded from school after telling Childline that he was being racially bullied and was bringing a knife into school to protect himself. After his exclusion, he returned to the school and assaulted someone with a hockey stick. Later that same year, Rudakubana again contacted Childline and asked: “What should I do if I want to kill somebody?”

The list could go on, but suffice to say that more people would probably be alive today had it not been for serious failings in Britain’s mental healthcare system, along with other arms of the state. We can be reasonably confident that a lack of funding is a major factor in all of this, and it is cited by many mental health professionals as a factor in the decline of care quality. But with all these disturbed, violent individuals being black, could ‘anti-racist’ sensibilities also be playing a part in these failings?

We know that much of the political class sees the rate at which black people are sectioned as itself a problem. In 2021, the then Conservative health secretary Matt Hancock proposed reforming the Mental Health Act to address the disproportionality in the sectioning of black people compared with their white counterparts, and, in its 2024 manifesto, the Labour Party promised “targeted interventions to reduce the disproportionate detention rates of black individuals under the Mental Health Act”.

When I was a police constable in London, I was involved in the sectioning of a number of people under the Mental Health Act.

On each occasion, it was the informed decision of the duty officer (an inspector) and the officers on the ground that the individual in question posed a physical risk to either themselves or members of the public.

Nearly all were black men, and nearly all were known to mental health services.

Are we now saying that the professional assessments of duty officers, whose primary concern is supposed to be public safety, are to play second fiddle to political considerations? Rather than taking necessary robust action, an inspector today might well be mindful of such absurdities as the Police Race Action Plan, a product of the ideologically captured College of Policing, which asks officers to “consider the levels of disproportionate contact between the police and Black people suffering mental distress”. Certainly, if that inspector were keen on promotion, he or she would at least be hesitant.

I’m sure some will say that to blame ‘woke’ officialdom is a knee-jerk, Right-wing reaction and there’s nothing to see here. So how does one explain the response to one of Rudakubana’s former headteacher’s education plan for him? 

Joanne Hodson described Rudakubana as “sinister, cold and calculating”. An unnamed mental health worker challenged this assertion and accused Hodson of racially profiling “a black boy with a knife”.

Hodson told the Southport Inquiry that the accusations succeeded in shutting her up, even though she had a “visceral sense of dread” that Rudakubana was building up to “something”. We will never know what the outcome would have been had she not been silenced.

Mental health outcomes and experiences can vary significantly across different ethnic groups in the United Kingdom. The question of why black people may be more likely to suffer from mental health issues, yet often not be sectioned under the Mental Health Act when they should have been, is an undoubtedly complex one. But progressive dogma should have no place in decision-making where psychotic individuals are concerned. People’s lives depend on it.

Paul Birch is a retired police officer who spent 24 years in the Metropolitan Police, 16 of which in counter-terrorism. You can watch his recent interview with the Sceptic here, and subscribe to his Substack here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 06:30

Digital ID: The Next Step Toward Total Control

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

Recently, globalist puppet Keir Starmer unabashedly told citizens that their right to work — and therefore to live — will depend on their using a digital ID.

Bukele’s response is both accurate and chilling.

The long-planned rollout of digital ID, first set in motion with the Covid scam, will be connected to employment records, health records, and banking records to create a total surveillance grid for tax-paying citizens to be monitored and have every aspect of their lives controlled: from what they eat to what they buy to where and when.

Any Brit who hasn’t left their anarcho-tyrannical, techno-dystopian hell hole yet for a place like Costa Rica, Montana, Bali, Serbia, or Mars (we’re running out of options) will soon be a slave inside a fifteen-minute city monitored by an AI system with prompts from a power-mad nerd filled with the righteousness of the Georgian guidestones.

What does this mean? Europe is in the process of willfully catapulting itself into a catastrophic war. This will fragment society and likely lead to revolutions within the EU as the populace — already highly distrustful of the elites, burdened with destructive immigration policies, wealth-destroying taxes, absurd regulation, and a socialist economic and political structure — becomes increasingly restless.

Ironically, revolution has only been subdued by the existing welfare state providing for them. As this collapses, tensions will rise.

Speaking of which, this just in…

“Germany has proposed raising the retirement age to 73 to prevent the collapse of the pension system.

A new scientific advisory board under the German Ministry of Economy stated that there is almost no time left for reforms. According to experts, Germany’s economy has been stagnating for years, while the demographic situation continues to worsen.

The proposal sparked outrage in Berlin: just recently, Economy Minister Katharina Reiche suggested raising the retirement age to 70, and even that faced heavy criticism.

The average life expectancy in Germany in 2023 was about 81.2 years.”

This bodes extremely poorly for European equity and especially bond markets. It is why the frantic push to implement digital ID, and then digital money, is taking place.

The chaos coming to Europe (possibly as soon as by the end of this year) will see a rush for the exits.

Despite its problems, the US will become a conduit for this, but in my opinion, there are far better undervalued opportunities.

*  *  *

As governments tighten their grip through digital IDs, central bank currencies, and expanding surveillance, the window for preserving both financial and personal freedom is narrowing fast. The coming collision between state control and individual sovereignty will reshape markets, currencies, and societies themselves. To understand how this transformation will unfold—and how to position yourself before it accelerates—read our new special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time. Click here to access the report and stay one step ahead.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 03:30

Which Country Reads The Most?

Reading remains a cornerstone of cultural and intellectual life worldwide, but engagement varies significantly by nation.

Measuring "which countries read the most" can focus on metrics like average books consumed annually per capita, weekly reading hours, or library usage rates. Drawing from recent data by World Population Review, Americans are (somewhat surprisingly) the world's most voracious readers.

Americans spend almost 7 hours reading per week, on average. This equals 357 hours per year.

Source: Voronoiapp.com

In contrast, India, ranking second (only about 5 minutes per week behind that of Americans) reads the most in sheer numbers—over 90 million books sold yearly—but per capita lags at 1.5 due to population scale.

China mirrors this, with 500 million readers, though urban youth drive digital consumption.

The United Kingdom comes in third, reading about 6.5 hours a week or 343 hours per year, followed by France with the average person reading for about 5 hours and 50 minutes each week.

Italians are the fifth most voracious readers globally, reading for 5 hours and 20 minutes per week or 278 hours per year.

These trends highlight policy's role: subsidies, accessibility, and cultural promotion elevate reading.

As digital formats rise, expect Asia's per capita figures to climb, narrowing the gap with Europe.

Globally, reading correlates with higher empathy and innovation - lessons for under-engaged nations like Afghanistan, Brunei, and Pakistan.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 02:45

Germany’s Industrial Heart Stalls: Green Tech Illusion Meets Economic Freefall

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The collapse of German industrial production is dragging municipal finances down with it. The state-funded economic institute DIW claims salvation lies in the artificial Green Tech sector.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to shock readers with new economic numbers, given Germany’s ongoing economic decline. Yet a 19% plunge in machinery orders in September—reported by the VDMA—manages exactly that. A shock even by German standards. 

The association offered an explanation right away: last year’s large-scale plant orders are simply missing this September. But that doesn’t change the diagnosis.

Johannes Gernandt, chief economist of the VDMA, expects another 5% drop in production this year. That means German mechanical engineering has lost more than 15% of its output since its 2018 peak—an unprecedented decline of one of the country’s key industries, barely reflected in media coverage. Overall industrial production is down almost 20%.

Silence Instead of Debate

Public debate about the real state of the German economy suffers from a lack of honest assessments—from within the economy itself. Only Christian Kullmann, CEO of chemical giant Evonik, dared to place his finger on the wound, denouncing the crisis as a direct result of Brussels-style climate policy.

One looks at this collapse and rubs one’s eyes in disbelief. Where are the sharp, unvarnished words about politics, conditions, exploding energy costs and the chokehold of bureaucracy? 

Has politics really succeeded in binding large parts of corporate leadership so deeply into the subsidy machinery that criticism has become impossible?

How many business models would collapse if Brussels and Berlin pulled the plug on subsidies overnight?

It’s hard to avoid a grim conclusion: state intervention has turned major parts of the economy into dependent command structures, fed by the subsidy printer. This has distorted public discourse—removing its critical edge and pulling its teeth.

Voice from the Shadows

Now another heavyweight speaks up: former VW CEO Matthias Müller. No longer in office, but still a voice from the top tier of German industry. And Müller finds clear—almost desperate—words in light of the looming industrial collapse. He warns of a “job massacre” in the auto industry.

Rightly so. Müller sees not only carmakers at risk, but the entire value chain. He blames “Eurocrats” for banning combustion engines and blocking a soft transition to e-mobility.

Reality proves him right: at Bosch and ZF Friedrichshafen, tens of thousands of jobs are already disappearing. Müller condemns an ideology-driven policy that sends energy prices into absurd territory and suffocates industry with bureaucratic madness. He speaks of a “lost decade”—and he isn’t wrong.

But this is exactly where debate dies: observations, warnings, appeals—lonely voices in a dead desert. A real discourse on the true state of the German economy? Nowhere. 

Meanwhile, like a monument to delusion, stands the growth forecast of Economy Minister Katharina Reiche (CDU). Her ministry seriously expects 0.2% growth this year—and 1.3% by 2026.

Given mass layoffs, collapsing demand, and shrinking production—who has the nerve to send their minister out with such fantasy numbers?

Propaganda Units Activated

When criticism of Berlin or Brussels economic policy threatens to gain traction, institutes like DIW are ready to neutralize it. Its president, Marcel Fratzscher—known for bizarre media ideas like mandatory labor service for retirees—regularly delivers ideological cover fire.

Serious economists are rare at DIW. When criticism touches the artificial “eco-economy,” Claudia Kemfert steps onto the stage—DIW’s “climate economist” and staunch defender of green state capitalism. In a column for Focus, she downplayed Germany’s industrial crisis, portraying it as a transition toward a green industrial future already generating 9% of GDP.

Her view of Greentech—subsidy-fed industries living off taxpayers, state programs, and cheap ECB money—presents the illusion of a new economic model smoothly replacing old structures.

Subsidized heat pumps, recycling schemes, fragile storage technologies for an unstable power grid—this, we’re told, will replace automotive, machinery, and electrical engineering. 

An extraordinary worldview—one that ignores global markets, real demand, energy costs, and the failure of central planning.

What Kemfert and Fratzscher sell is pure voodoo economics—a pseudo-scientific backdrop to safeguard eco-socialist policy.

Municipal Collapse

The consequences of central economic planning—broken supply chains, permanent recession, rising unemployment—are never addressed. But reality has hit the foundations of the state—local treasurers. The collapse is now destroying municipal finances: business tax revenues are crumbling.

In a letter to the Chancellor, 13 mayors of state capitals demanded emergency aid to prevent fiscal collapse.

It remains to be seen whether fresh debt from special funds will be used once again to plaster over symptoms—or whether the wall of silence finally breaks and the root of the crisis is named: the Green Deal.

A green transformation—wrapped in warm words and environmental rhetoric—that is sawing away at the economic foundations of this country.

Green comfort propaganda and subsidy placebos will not be enough to calm the rising army of the unemployed.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/07/2025 - 02:00

Goldman's Tech Trader Lists The 3 Things Behind The Sudden AI Implosion

It was uphill fun pretty much constantly since April, but then in the past two weeks, the market has clearly gotten harder, and as Goldman TMT specialist Peter Bartlett writes in a note (available to pro subs), is set to post its second -2% session in 3 days, with under-the-hood price action feeling increasingly unsettling.

Bartlett thinks the increased chop is being caused by three facts: 

1. Uptick in AI skepticism, exacerbated by the recent OpenAI discourse around a "federal bail out" of AI infrastructure spend

From Bartlett's seat, "a more bearish/skeptical view of the AI trade is coming up in more and more of our investor conversations... even if positioning hasn't changed much off the highs  (ie has been too hard to be short, or even underweight the momentum behind the trade)."

While there have been several drivers of increased skepticism of late (circular nature of Cloud deals, “peak feel” to cadence of news flow, general ROI concerns etc)...

... two recent comments from OpenAI (who has separated itself as the biggest consumer of AI infrastructure) appear to be spooking the market:

• 1) Sam Altman’s defensive response to Brad Gerstner’s question on "How can a company with $13bn in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments?" on the g2Pod podcast earlier this week (see "OpenAI CFO Seeks US Government Backing, Disappointed Market Doesn't Have More AI "Exuberance")
• 2) OpenAI’s CFO Sarah Friar mention of a potential federal government "backstop" for AI financing (WSJ) yesterday. (see "AI is the new global arms race, and capex will eventually be funded by governments (US and China).")  

 
Today, Trump’s AI czar David Sachs responded to the “federal bailout” comments … with many noting the bizarreness of any talk of a “bail out” given where we are in the AI cycle. 

There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least 5 major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place.

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) November 6, 2025

2. Negative earnings asymmetry highlighting poor Risk/Reward 

The difficulty of getting paid on Longs into earnings has continued (see: DASH -15%, HUBS -17%, PTC -10% today …. which comes after RBLX -15% , META -12%, NFLX -10%, ANET -9%, PLTR -7%, MSFT bleed over the last week). 
- Goldman thinks the asymmetry around earnings reactions is contributing to an uptick in risk/reward considerations into YE, particularly given where positioning currently stands and how hard & fast certain pockets of the market have ran in recent months.
 
3. Concerns surrounding the Jobs situation 

Noise around the health of the Jobs market in the US has increased in recent sessions, with a Bloomberg story out this morning reporting US companies announced 153k job cuts last month, triple the amount during the same month last year, and the most for any October since 2003. The story, citing data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, pointed to AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs as the primary drivers of belt-tightening and hiring freezes. 

As Bartlett concludes, "how the market responds to the potential job loss side of the AI equation is an outstanding question, with today's price action potentially suggesting that there is a threshold where "too much job displacement" becomes a problem."

Which sounds a little like Scenario 3 the options we presented yesterday...

Three endgame scenarios emerging

1. AI is huge "unlit fiber" dud a la Global Crossing, leads to record capital misallocation; Mag 7 crashes, dragging market with it 30-40%, Fed steps in to bailout again

2. AI is long slog, transforms into civilizational competition between US…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 5, 2025

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 23:36

These Are The 20 Most Chilling Insights From Yuri Bezmenov

Authored by Doug Ross via Director Blue Substack,

How the KGB's Playbook Is Destroying the West Today

Yuri Aleksandrovich Bezmenov (1939–1993), also known as Tomas David Schuman, was a Soviet journalist and KGB operative specializing in propaganda and ideological subversion.

Ideological subversion is the process of bending a society’s perception of reality so completely that it destroys itself.

In the Cold War era, few voices pierced the veil of secrecy as profoundly as that of Yuri Bezmenov, a KGB defector whose chilling exposés on ideological subversion still resonate today. His warnings, drawn from firsthand experience in Soviet active measures, offer blueprints for destroying free societies—not through bombs, invasions or disease, but through the poisons of manipulated ideas and cultural decay.

Here are 20 of Bezmenov’s key insights.

1. Ideological subversion is a long-term process, spanning 15-60 years, designed to change the perception of reality in a target nation without a need for military force.

2. Only about 15% of KGB efforts focused on traditional espionage; the majority targeted psychological warfare and ideological manipulation.

3. The goal is to demoralize a society by undermining its moral, educational, and cultural foundations, making people unable to recognize or defend against threats.

4. Demoralization takes 15-20 years, the time needed to educate one generation with subversive ideas.

5. Educational systems at all levels are key targets, turning schools into indoctrination centers that promote relativism over facts and critical thinking.

6. Media infiltration sows confusion by amplifying divisive narratives and discrediting objective truth.

7. Religion is attacked by portraying it as outdated or oppressive, eroding spiritual anchors and replacing them with state loyalty or nihilism.

8. Family structures are weakened through promotion of individualism, divorce, and alternative lifestyles that fragment social cohesion.

9. Moral relativism blurs right and wrong, leading to apathy and inability to unite against a society’s true enemies.

10. History is rewritten to vilify national heroes and traditions, fostering self-doubt and guilt in the populace.

11. Following demoralization, destabilization lasts 2-5 years, targeting the economy, foreign relations, and defense to create internal chaos.

12. Economic sabotage widens class divides, shrinks the middle class, and breeds resentment through inflation, shortages, or inequality.

13. Foreign policy is manipulated to isolate the nation, straining alliances and emboldening adversaries.

14. Defense readiness erodes through budget cuts, internal divisions, or anti-military propaganda.

15. The Crisis stage erupts in violence or upheaval, where a demoralized and destabilized society demands radical solutions*.

16. During the crisis, people willingly surrender freedoms for promised security, paving the way for authoritarian control.

17. Normalization is the final phase, where subversive changes become the “new normal,” institutionalized and irreversible.

18. Opposition is silenced through censorship, marginalization, or elimination in the normalization stage.

19. The process relies on “useful idiots”—well-meaning Western intellectuals, elites, activists, and leaders who unwittingly* advance societal suicide.

20. Once subversion succeeds, even exposure of the truth won’t reverse it, as the population rejects facts that contradict their reprogrammed worldview.

Bezmenov’s insights resonate today for obvious reasons from our fractured educational institutions, corrupted sciences to zero trust in “experts”.

Americans must heed Yuri’s prescient warning: reclaim critical thinking, fortify culture, and reject divisive ideologies before the stages of subversion culminate in irreversible “normalization.”

Because at that point America is dead.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 23:25

3 More Chinese Researchers Charged With Smuggling Biological Materials Into US

Three additional Chinese researchers at the University of Michigan have been charged as part of an ongoing investigation into the smuggling of biological materials from China to the United States, the U.S. Department of Justice announced on Nov. 5.

Bai Xu, 28, Zhang Fengfan, 27, and Zhang Zhiyong, 30, were charged in a criminal complaint filed on Nov. 4 in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan.

Bai and Zhang Fengfan were charged with conspiracy to smuggle biological materials into the United States, while Zhang Zhiyong was charged with making false statements to federal agents.

The three defendants were arrested at the John F. Kennedy International Airport on Oct. 16 and taken into custody by Immigration and Customs Enforcement before they could board a flight to China.

Frank Fang reports that The Epoch Times was unable to reach the defendants’ attorneys for comment, but notes that the case is connected to Han Chengxuan, a Chinese scholar at China’s Huazhong University of Science and Technology.

Han was supposed to start research at the University of Michigan in June under a J-1 visa, but was arrested upon her arrival at Detroit Metro Airport that month. She was accused of having shipped, prior to her arrival in the United States, petri dishes containing nematode worms, known as C. elegans, to the university and falsely declaring them on shipping documents.

Han later pleaded no contest to three smuggling charges and to lying to U.S. customs officials and was sentenced to time served in September.

According to the criminal complaint, Han was removed from the United States on Sept. 11.

“Allegedly attempting to smuggle biological materials under the guise of ‘research’ is a serious crime that threatens America’s national and agricultural security,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement on Nov. 5.

“We will remain vigilant to threats like these from foreign nationals who would take advantage of America’s generosity to advance a malicious agenda.”

Shipments

Bai, Zhang Fengfan, and Zhang Zhiyong all came to the United States on J-1 visas as scholars at the University of Michigan, according to the criminal complaint. Bai arrived in the United States in August 2024, and his roommate, Zhang Fengfan, arrived in September 2023. Zhang Zhiyong arrived in September 2021.

On March 5 this year, a UPS shipment from Han, which was addressed to Bai’s apartment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, was intercepted and found by the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) to be “improperly manifested as ‘doc,’” the criminal complaint stated. The shipment included a handwritten note listing 28 DNA molecules, or plasmids, four of which were related to C. elegans.

Prosecutors said the UPS shipment was the source of one of the three smuggling counts to which Han pleaded no contest.

On March 31, CBP officers contacted Bai about the intercepted UPS package, but he was “uncooperative and refused to speak to or meet with the officers,” according to the criminal complaint.

From July 2024 to October 2024, Han also allegedly shipped several packages to Dylan Zhang, whom prosecutors believed to be Zhang Fengfan. According to the criminal complaint, one of the packages, wrongfully manifested as “plastic plates,” included eight petri dishes “containing C. elegans with genetic modifications.”

The shipments sent to Zhang Fengfan from Sept. 23 and Sept. 29 in the same year were the source of two of the three smuggling counts to which Han pleaded no contest, according to prosecutors.

Zhang Zhiyong sent a package to the University of Michigan in 2019 containing nematodes in petri dishes, but manifested as “plastic plates,” according to the criminal complaint.

Han Chengxuan

After Han was removed from the United States, the University of Michigan conducted an internal investigation. According to prosecutors, the three defendants “each refused to participate in the investigation” and were subsequently terminated by the university.

On Oct. 8, the University of Michigan terminated the three defendants’ records on the Department of Homeland Security’s Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), prosecutors said, explaining that the move meant that they were “no longer in compliance with their J-1 visas.” Afterward, the Department of Homeland Security considered them “eligible for removal,” according to the criminal complaint.

U.S. customs officials interviewed the three defendants at the John F. Kennedy International Airport on Oct. 16, according to the criminal complaint. The trio identified Han as a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Prosecutors noted that Han began her doctoral studies at Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST) in 2020, with Liu Jianfen as her adviser.

According to Liu’s personal page on HUST’s website, he currently serves as president of the school’s College of Life Science and Technology and head of its Key Laboratory of Molecular Biophysics of China’s Ministry of Education.

In 2012, Liu was awarded funding as a distinguished scholar by the state-run National Natural Science Foundation of China, according to his personal page.

Zhang Fengfan told U.S. customs officials that he was flying back to China to continue his second-year doctorate program at HUST under Liu, according to prosecutors.

There have been other smuggling cases connected to the University of Michigan in recent months.

Jian Yunqing, a post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Michigan, was charged with conspiring with her boyfriend, Liu Zunyong, to bring a fungus known as Fusarium graminearum into the United States. The fungus can devastate wheat, barley, maize, and rice and cause health problems in humans and livestock.

Jian and Liu were charged in June with visa fraud, conspiracy, making false statements, and smuggling a pathogen into the United States.

Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP, called on university leaders to conduct internal reviews to protect their research from “China’s adversarial actions,” according to a Nov. 5 statement.

“These new charges reveal an organized network of scholars engaged in illegal activity on Michigan’s campus. It is part of a broader, coordinated campaign targeting universities across the country, driven by China’s efforts to acquire American technology,” Moolenaar said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 23:00

AI Will Not Make The Planned Society Viable

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In 1935, the mainline publisher Macmillan printed a book called “Planned Society” edited by American economist and journalist George Soule. The core idea was that mass unemployment, the economic depression, financial instability, and material deprivation all have a solution. We need the best and the brightest to come to power with a new plan for the whole of society.

metamorworks/Shutterstock

What followed were many chapters exploring the idea. With the right plan, government can produce and deliver food. It can build all the houses and apartments. It can be the main influence in capital markets and hence fix business cycles. It can set prices and guarantee they are the right ones. It can provide minimum living standards for everyone, plus provide education and health care.

The ethos of the book was not about replicating the Soviet experience, which was already discredited by that time. Sloganeering about revolutionary workers and expropriating the expropriators was not in fashion. Indeed, powerful intellectuals and industries truly feared such attitudes. The planned society of the sort mapped out in this book was to be the alternative.

The underlying presumption of the book—one shared by nearly all public intellectuals at the time—was that both freedom and democracy have failed. They have led to the chaos of economic collapse and social division. These old-fashioned ideas—rooted in simply allowing society to evolve on its own—were deeply unscientific. They needed to be replaced by new ideas from the Ivy League.

The moniker “planned society” also served as a replacement for socialism as a political agenda. Why did socialism have to be replaced? First, it was a political loser thanks to the disasters unfolding in the Soviet Union. Second, all classes of people in the U.S. and the UK like their property rights, religion, and families, and had no interest in a scheme to jettison them. Third, no one at that point in time had a solution to the fundamental economic failing of socialism.

To understand that latter point, let’s go back more than a decade earlier to 1920. Economist Ludwig von Mises had written an article called “Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth.” He offered a novel counterpoint to socialist theory. It had normally been assumed that socialism failed because people are not angels and therefore cannot be expected to work for the good of all.

Mises said something different. He was glad to imagine a world of people who are community-minded, unselfish, and need no monetary incentives to work and do a good job. They are happy to produce, share, and commit themselves to the well-being of all. Let’s say that all men are angels. Even then, he said, socialism will necessarily fail for a precise technological reason.

Socialism imagines getting rid of the private ownership of capital, which are the produced means of production. We are talking about steel, wood, all tools, trucks, and anything else that is neither natural resources nor consumer good. Those would all be owned collectively. In this way, socialism said, it could stop value from unfairly flowing from workers to owners. This addresses the core argument of Karl Marx in his book “Capital” and a constant complaint of socialists from time immemorial.

With collective ownership of capital goods, the market for them would disappear. Along with that there would be no trading of capital and no prices for them. Without such prices, accounting for profits and losses from capital would also vanish. We are left with just huge piles of stuff that have to be allocated through some means other than normal accounting. That means that the planners would have to be in charge.

What signals would the planners have? Prices have been taken away. They would have no access to information systems about the needs of society. They would not know whether scarce amounts of steel should flow to trains, trucks, bridges, buildings, repairs of old things, or building of the new. They would not know whether cotton and wool need to go to blankets, clothing, beddings, or uniforms. They would have no idea what the trade-offs were of these decisions and no means by which to assess whether they had made the right decision.

And then you have the problem of change. In the real world, everything is always changing: consumer tastes, technology, seasonal needs, demographics, and talents. A socialist society managed by elites would lack any signaling system to adapt to such changes. Society would get stuck in place and economic life would stagnate. This is the best possible outcome. The worst outcome is sheer chaos.

“Without economic calculation there can be no economy,” Mises wrote. “Hence, in a socialist state wherein the pursuit of economic calculation is impossible, there can be—in our sense of the term—no economy whatsoever.”

What would replace the economy?

“There will be hundreds and thousands of factories in operation. Very few of these will be producing wares ready for use; in the majority of cases what will be manufactured will be unfinished goods and production goods. All these concerns will be interrelated. Every good will go through a whole series of stages before it is ready for use. In the ceaseless toil and moil of this process, however, the administration will be without any means of testing their bearings. It will never be able to determine whether a given good has not been kept for a superfluous length of time in the necessary processes of production, or whether work and material have not been wasted in its completion.”

Finally: “Thus in the socialist commonwealth every economic change becomes an undertaking whose success can be neither appraised in advance nor later retrospectively determined. There is only groping in the dark. Socialism is the abolition of rational economy.”

The argument was devastating to European intellectuals. Mises’s point was born out in Soviet experience. No one could really come up with an answer to it until the Polish economist Oskar Lange in the mid-1930s took it on. He said that the planners would not need real markets insofar as they could simulate markets with auctions. The state could hire financial traders to bid and ask, thus yielding prices that the planners could take in as information to feed their plans.

That argument was further met by F.A. Hayek who broadened Mises’s point into a general theory of knowledge in society. All social systems need information for coordination and planning but from where is that information drawn? He said that the only reliable information is connected to time, place, and real human experience. Even then, all economic decision-making is a speculation about human needs and future uncertainties. The data we need is necessary to localize and disperse, and even and often embed tacitly in habits, mores, and traditions.

The planners, he said, will always be ignorant relative to the intelligence of the societies over which they preside.

By the 1950s, the planners developed a new scheme that seemed to refute all the past critics of socialism and offer a new way toward organizing a rational society. They claimed that the advent of the computer age had made socialist planning entirely possible. “Let us put the simultaneous equations on an electronic computer and we shall obtain the solution in less than a second,” wrote Lange. “The market process with its cumbersome atonements appears old-fashioned. Indeed, it may be considered as a computing device of the pre-electronic age.”

Of course that scheme did not work. The knowledge problem, clarified Hayek, was not merely a technical issue that can be solved with more computing power. It was a learning and discovery problem that requires freedom of action, choice, and trading to generate useful information that adapts to change.

You see where this is going now. Myriad thinkers have once again rallied around a technological solution to the socialist problem of rational economic calculation and wise use of resources.

Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba, has written: “In the era of big data, the abilities of human beings in obtaining and processing data are greater than you can imagine. With the help of artificial intelligence or multiple intelligence, our perception of the world will be elevated to a new level. As such, big data will make the market smarter and make it possible to plan and predict market forces so as to allow us to finally achieve a planned economy.”

This is the same hubris that led Vladimir Lenin to believe that solving the economic problem under communism was easy as pie, until he discovered two years after taking power that even the pies disappeared.

It will be the same with the people who think AI will make the dream come true. You already know this. Even the best data is past data. It does not provide a crystal ball to the future. It is also deeply mistake prone. As with all planned systems, it provides no mechanisms for adaptation to reality even when that reality is screaming for change.

Isn’t it remarkable? For some reason, intellectuals are forever reluctant to admit that they are in no position to plan society under any ideological flag, and that freedom alone is capable of generating the best possible social and economic outcomes. The old solutions of individual rights and freedom—the rallying points of America’s Founding Fathers—have not only stood the test of time but still offer the best model for the future.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 22:35

How Big Is Australia? Visualizing How Many Countries Fit Inside

Australia ranks 54th by population, 14th by gross domestic product…and sixth by size?

The infographic below, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, puts its staggering scale in context by showing how many familiar nations could sit comfortably inside its outline.

The data for this visualization comes from UN Statistics Division, using total area estimates.

Australia’s True Size Revealed

Covering nearly 3.0 million square miles (7.73 million km²), Australia is the sixth-largest country, sitting just behind Brazil.

Note: Population data sourced from the International Monetary Fund.

Its landmass is roughly equivalent to the combined size of nine other countries, including 7th-ranked India.

For an American perspective, it’s the size of the contiguous U.S. west of the Mississippi River.

Humans often underestimate continental scale when viewing Mercator maps, so stacking countries gives a more intuitive sense of magnitude.

ℹ️ Related: For more on the Mercator projection, check out: The Problem With Our Maps.

Yet with only 27 million residents, Australia’s average population density is nine people per square mile.

The average population density of the combined nine countries is 687 people per square mile.

Why So Much of Australia Is Empty

The emptiness stems largely from the notorious Outback.

Roughly two-fifths of the continent is classified as arid or semi-arid desert, encompassing the Simpson, Tanami, and Great Victoria deserts.

Summer highs above 110°F (43°C) and some of the lowest rainfall on Earth make permanent settlement costly and risky.

Consequently, more than 85% of Australians cluster in coastal metro areas such as Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, and Brisbane.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Visualizing Africa’s True Size on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 22:10

Want a Job? Ditch The Degree And Pick Up A Trade

Authored by Roslyn Kunin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At over 7 percent, the unemployment rate in Canada is the highest it has been in a decade. For those under 25, it surpasses 14 percent. This is a real challenge for young people at the beginning of their working lives. The usual rules for getting started on a promising career no longer seem to apply.

A welder works at a new condo building under construction in downtown Vancouver, in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward

A university degree does not open doors the way it used to. There are many more university graduates than there are openings that require this qualification, and this does not even consider the mismatch that exists between the fields of the vacant positions and those of the graduates.

The government has reacted to this sad situation by severely curtailing the number of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) allowed into Canada, presumably to save jobs for unemployed Canadians. It may not work. TFWs have been brought into Canada to fill jobs that, even in times of high unemployment, Canadians would not fill.

Agricultural workers are an example. Youth (and older workers) are reluctant to take seasonal jobs that require long hours of demanding physical labour outdoors for the rates of pay that our food-producing sector can afford.

TFWs also play a big role in entry-level service jobs, another area that is hard to fill with Canadians, especially if they have a university degree. Finding Canadians for these jobs is particularly acute in smaller centres and more remote locations.

Not only are the jobs left unfilled by reducing TFWs unattractive to most Canadians, but many of the more attractive jobs are now, or soon will be, replaced by AI. Older workers will recall how swathes of lower-level white-collar jobs, such as secretaries and clerks, were eliminated by the introduction of computers.

Now the work of higher-level positions can be done by AI. This includes junior executives, many mid-level management positions, and any position that has the word agent or broker in the title—areas where many aspiring leaders got their start. Now it is even harder to find any openings.

There are still good jobs in desirable locations that pay well, where vacancies tend to exceed job seekers and which will be difficult or impossible for AI to replace. Most Canadians do not even consider these opportunities or are barely aware of them.

The people needed now and into the future are trades workers, technicians, and technologists. Also needed are people who can provide a level of human contact that machines cannot offer in medicine and other areas.

Use the phrase “hands-on” to determine which occupations are safe from an AI takeover. AI cannot fix a leaky pipe or wire a new building. It cannot deliver a baby.

Nor can AI create and maintain the physical underpinnings of our 21st-century world. For this, technicians and technologists are required. Right now, there are openings for technicians and technologists in engineering at all levels and also in design, maintenance, inspection, project management, and other fields.

Such in-demand occupations are regulated in B.C. by the Association of Technicians and Technologists of B.C. Current job openings are listed here. Institutes of technology and many universities and colleges offer the training that would lead to positions like these. Most courses take two years, less than a university degree. Many technician and technology positions offer upward mobility into areas like management or professional engineering.

For those who prefer to deal with people, we will still need doctors, nurses, and other health professionals even as AI takes over the more tedious administrative aspects of that work. Counsellors and advisors will still be needed, but they will need to have both excellent people skills and detailed expertise in fields like financial planning, employment, and others. The more routine support and advice can and will be provided by AI.

Even in hands-on occupations, practitioners will still have to keep up to date with AI and other developing systems. These current and future developments will be like the telephone—useful and necessary in whatever we do. But they will also free us from the tedious administrative requirements that until now were part of just about every job.

We now find ourselves in an uncertain economy with high and rising unemployment. What used to be good ways to find a job or establish a career are no longer working, and AI-related elimination looms over many positions. But there are still many hands-on occupations that AI cannot fill and that offer good jobs now and excellent career prospects to those willing to consider them.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 21:45