Doug Casey On Why The Military-Industrial Complex Always Wins

Via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: During the recent Iran–Israel war, the US used up to 20% of its global stockpile of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile interceptors, each costing over $18 million. THAAD isn’t effective against hypersonic missiles, which both Iran and even Yemen’s Houthis now possess.

What do you make of this?

Doug Casey: War, in the long run, is a matter of economics. If you can’t afford to fight a war, you’ll lose the war. Missiles are now the preferred weapon for taking out enemy targets, and the only effective counter is anti-missile missiles. The problem is that both are brutally expensive. Can the costs be kept down, so war is more… affordable?

Generals, politicians, and “defense” contractors, however, love expensive high-tech toys. But if you’re going to afford a war, the most cost-effective weapon is an ignorant teenage boy—something the Third World, especially the Muslim world, is awash in. They’re cheap and stealthy delivery systems, far more effective than multi-million-dollar missiles. There’s an endless supply of them, and they can be employed in a myriad of ways. From an economic point of view, it makes no sense for technologically advanced countries (like the US) to use ultra-expensive weapons to attack primitive countries, as we’ve done for the last 75 years.

Regardless of the weapons used, the thing to remember is that war amounts to setting wealth on fire. Missiles are about taking real goods, manufactured at great expense, and using them to blow up other real wealth; there can be a perverse logic to it. However, despite their rhetoric to the contrary, I’m not sure governments are too concerned about lots of young men dying. A surplus of unemployed young males is destabilizing, especially in poor countries.

Even a large country like the US will eventually collapse under the weight of war. That’s much more true of the Ukraine. And vastly truer of Israel. Israel will further bankrupt itself shooting down missiles with ultra-expensive anti-missiles. With a gigantic debt load, enormous war expenditures and losses, living on welfare from the US, and no prospect of things getting better, the prognosis isn’t good. About a million (it’s said) of Israel’s seven million Jewish citizens have recently made the chicken run, and those who remain aren’t allowed to leave. I think Israel has a near-insoluble problem. Giving them more money and missiles won’t help.

International Man: President Trump recently unveiled a plan to build a “Golden Dome” missile defense shield over the US, modeled loosely on Israel’s Iron Dome. Critics question its feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. Independent analysts estimate the long-term price tag could reach $800 billion.

What’s your take?

Doug Casey: Almost every major weapons system ends up fighting the last war, and that will be true of the so-called Golden Dome. It strikes me as a criminally stupid idea, further ensuring the bankruptcy of the US government and the US itself, while serving no real useful purpose. If you want to attack the US, you don’t want to use missiles.

First, we don’t have a major military threat. The US is insulated from hostile powers by two very large oceans. Should someone launch a nuclear missile attack—which is what the Golden Dome is supposed to defend against—we would know exactly where those missiles came from. The enemy could expect massive retaliation from the American nuclear triad, which makes the attack pointless. That alone makes the Golden Dome redundant and unnecessary. Apart from that, if an enemy wanted to launch a nuclear attack, it would be more effective with pre-positioned nukes, or nukes delivered surreptitiously with cargo ships and planes.

Nuclear war via missiles scared everybody 70 years ago. But today it’s not a practical threat. The likely threats, I think, are from more subtle areas—cyber war, bio war, or a new type of guerrilla war.

WW3 will have a huge cyber element. Everything runs on computers: the banking system, the monetary system, the electrical grid, the communications grid, the transportation grid, and utilities. A successful cyber-attack would turn almost everything we use or need into a brick overnight. It would be cheap and effective, cause widespread chaos and mass casualties, without kinetically destroying very much.

If the enemy is really serious, though, they’ll use bioweapons. Viruses and bacteria can zero in on, or exclude, certain populations. Why have a nuclear war when you can neatly kill the people who are the real problem? And both cyber and biowar offer a great deal of plausible deniability.

The third option was demonstrated on September 11, 2001. The attack with commercial airliners was ultra cheap, super effective, and hard to counter. I suspect we’ll see numerous mutations of that theme. It’s a new type of guerrilla war. Millions of military-age males—cheap teenagers—have infiltrated the US over the last decade or so. For all we know, many may be organized as informal guerrilla armies to be activated whenever. They could surreptitiously wreak havoc.

There’s no real defense against these types of attacks.

But the real enemy is not some foreign power, but the fact that the US has turned into a dysfunctional multicultural domestic empire, which is likely to suffer serious financial, economic, social, and political problems over the next years.

Spending a trillion dollars on a useless Golden Dome is an insane distraction. Who comes up with these idiotic ideas?

International Man: The F-35 is the most expensive weapon system in human history, with lifetime costs projected at over $1.7 trillion, according to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO).

Is the F-35 worth the price tag—or is it a military-industrial complex boondoggle?

Doug Casey: The F-35 is a perfect example of fighting the last war, like having cavalry regiments before World War 1 or battleships before World War 2. Aircraft carriers and high-tech fighter planes are their WW3 equivalents.

What is the F-35 built to fight? Other fighter planes? But the next generation of fighter planes will be pilotless, highly sophisticated, and much cheaper. They’ll be drones run by artificial intelligence, which won’t need to drag around a heavy, expensive, and limiting pilot. The F-35 is a dinosaur.

The real enemy here, however, isn’t Russian or Chinese fighters. The real enemy is US military contractors—the so-called defense companies. They’ve learned to fight wars by hiring lobbyists instead of engineers. They take decades to build planes like the F-35, which are already obsolete by the time they’re in production.

It amazes me that during World War 2, the P-51—one of the most effective fighters of the war—went from blank paper to production in six months and was turned out at $50,000 per copy, which is about $600,000 or so in today’s money. The F-35 has taken 30 years to put into production; it got underway in 1995. And it costs—who knows, because the numbers are floating abstractions, buried under mountains of phony accounting and corruption. But somewhere between $100 and $200 million per plane. Enough money that you almost can’t afford to lose one. And that doesn’t count the huge direct and indirect maintenance costs.

International Man: Recently, Israel and Ukraine used relatively cheap drones smuggled into Iran and Russia to bypass advanced air defenses and hit strategic targets with ease.

How are drones changing warfare and its economics?

Doug Casey: Drones are totally changing the entire nature of warfare. The next generation of drones—which are already being manufactured—are the size of bumblebees or even houseflies. They can be produced by the millions and released onto a battlefield or into a city.

Moving up from there, you’ll have quadruped drones like the BigDog, and of course, real, true-to-life Terminators. Tesla anticipates manufacturing AI-powered bipedal robots for as little as $10,000 apiece. Oscar Wilde didn’t know how right he was when he said that life imitates art.

I would not want to be a soldier fighting drones of all descriptions. Human soldiers are dead meat on the battlefield in the next generation of military technology, which is already here.

International Man: It seems the US military-industrial complex is more focused on producing ultra-expensive hardware than on building systems that actually win wars.

What are the investment and geopolitical implications of this trend?

Doug Casey: Everybody’s familiar with Eisenhower’s warning about the military-industrial complex. That was 65 years ago—a lifetime—and it’s mutated and grown like a cancer since then. Today, any movie with a modern military theme is probably propaganda for the government or the companies that manufacture its weapons. Anyway, Congressmen don’t think in terms of the effectiveness of weapons; they think in terms of the number of dollars that will be spent in their home district and the number of people that weapons manufacturers can employ.

Innovations, however, are made by small companies or individual inventors, not by giant companies run by administrators and suits. You don’t want to own the Lockheeds or General Dynamics. You want to own small outfits, run by innovators, not suits.

It’s funny that after World War 2, the War Department changed its name to the Defense Department. It’s odd because the Defense Department has nothing to do with defense. It’s a complete misnomer. The US hasn’t had any wars defending the US, or “freedom”, a word they always throw in there, in living memory. As America transformed into an empire, very much like ancient Athens in many regards, its many wars have been offensive, not defensive. They’ve been wars of words and lies as well as wars of weapons.

In any event, the best defense for the US, or any country, is economic strength and liberty, not a giant military/industrial bureaucracy.

In addition to economic strength, successful countries have a citizenry that shares common values and loves their culture. Those things pretty much disappeared as the US mutated into a welfare-warfare state.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 20:55

Iron Ore Soars As China Pledges Crackdown On Industrial Overcapacity

Iron ore futures in Singapore surged toward $100 a ton — the highest since May — fueled by renewed pledges from the Chinese government to curb overcapacity in key industrial sectors. Beijing's comments have boosted sentiment across ferrous markets. 

Singapore futures jumped as much as 3.6% during the session, marking the largest daily gain since September. Iron ore futures have traded in a tight range between $90 and $110 a ton for more than 18 months. Futures on the Dalian Exchange — which are more influenced by the Chinese market — closed at their highest level since April.

"Iron ore has gained more than 5% in two weeks, having recovered a third of its early year tariff related loss in just the last 10 sessions. Lead is up almost 4% in the last three weeks," UBS analyst Simon Penn wrote in a note. 

"Many industries are currently caught in a wave of anti-overcapacity, leading to rising prices," after top officials pledged to tackle the problem, said Steven Yu, a researcher at Mysteel, who Bloomberg quoted. He was referring to iron ore's month-long slide of almost 10% from mid-May. He noted  that "ferrous prices were kept low during the previous decline, making the rebound particularly strong."

Here's more from Bloomberg:

The rebound has been spurred by vows from the Chinese government to crack down on excessive competition and supply in core industries including steel. President Xi Jinping visited a valve manufacturer in industrial heartland Shanxi province this week, where he stressed that the nation's traditional industries remained vital and shouldn't be abandoned.

. . . 

The renewed demand has also been seen in futures of Dalian coking coal — a key ingredient in the steel-making process — which surged more than 4.5% on Thursday and topped 900 yuan ($125.40) a ton, the highest since May, before paring some gains.

Meanwhile, data from Mysteel showed rebar steel inventories are still declining, despite stockpiles usually beginning to accumulate around this time of year. Hot-rolled steel has only seen a slight buildup, which indicates better-than-expected demand.

Separately, rumors of policy support sent Chinese property equities higher in the overnight hours. The Bloomberg Intelligence index of the nation's real estate stocks jumped 11%, while Goldman's China-H Real Estate basket gained 7.4%. Individual stocks, Logan Group Co. skyrocketed 85% in Hong Kong, and Sino-Ocean Group Holding Ltd soared 37%. 

It appears Beijing is finally stepping up with more decisive policy measures to stabilize the economy. This may signal a move by the government to suppress mounting economic dissent. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 20:30

California Might Stop Making Necessary Debt Payments For 2 Years

Authored by John Moorlach via The Epoch Times,

It’s July. The California State Legislature has successfully met the budget submission deadline of June 15, and it was signed by the governor. There was one small fly in the ointment: how to cut $12 billion in spending? All while trying to provide $750 million in tax credits annually to one specific industry: Hollywood. Go figure.

One massive spending reduction strategy that Gov. Gavin Newsom is negotiating is nonpayment for two years of the state’s unfunded actuarial accrued liability for retiree medical benefits. This nearly $85 billion debt would not be paid down by Sacramento and its employees, causing this languishing debt to increase from interest costs, for this unique lifetime benefit rarely seen in the private sector.

The wrong way to address the obligation of future costs is the “pay as you go” method, which deals with the immediate and not the upcoming higher bills on the horizon. Known as an “other post-employment benefit,” or OPEB, paying these retiree medical bills is a future cost that should be addressed systematically with an “annual required contribution,” or ARC, every year. Not doing so fits the definition of “kicking the can down the road.”

Not paying the ARC, or a higher amount, each year is a technique being pursued by what I would refer to as bottom-dwelling states that can’t afford to honor their commitments.

It’s July. It’s also backpacking season. And camping etiquette 101 is “Leave your campsite better than you found it.” But Sacramento, over the last decade, has failed to leave California’s balance sheet in better shape, even in flush economic times when this would have been a smart money move to make.

Reducing liabilities with higher payments helps to reduce the annual minimum payment, like with a credit card balance. But California leaders did not renegotiate or aggressively pay down the retiree medical liabilities.

I reminded both the Brown and Newsom administrations of this every year I served in the California State Senate, from 2015 to 2020. Not to toot my own horn, but I was vocal every budget cycle, to no avail.

Here is what I stated during my first State budget experience in June of 2015 in the Sierra Sun Times:

“The state is at a critical juncture, ‘an inflection point,’ where the state begins to seriously address its unrestricted net deficit and unfunded liabilities or continue to hire more state employees who will pay more dues to the unions that appear to be running California. This budget before us departs from Governor Brown’s call for greater fiscal restraint. Instead, it takes the most fiscally optimistic revenue estimates and spends up to that line. And many expenditures are also optimistic, if recent trends continue. Staying on this current course will lead to a fiscal implosion. The time to change course is now.”

In June of 2016, The Bond Buyer provided the following quote from me:

“I’m thankful that Governor Brown has worked to model out a softening economy and a budget agreement that grants a $2 billion increase for the rainy day fund; however, we still have much work to do to constrain spending and address our ever increasing debts and liabilities.”

In June of 2017, the Orange County Breeze provided my thoughts:

“Governor Jerry Brown has openly stated that a recession is coming and that budget cuts are inevitable. So I began my comments on the final budget acknowledging the uncomfortable fact that—at $125 billion—this is California’s largest general fund budget ever. It is difficult to reconcile the fact that a future deficit is a foregone conclusion while we quickly ramp up spending. Now would be the prudent time to put a little extra to the side and draw down our debts.”

In June of 2018, The Associated Press reported:

“Republicans praised the focus on savings but said the budget doesn’t do enough to pay down debt and irresponsibly increases long-term commitments that will hamstring the state in the future. Sen. John Moorlach, a Republican from Costa Mesa in Orange County, said the state isn’t doing enough to address growing obligations for pensions and retiree health care.

“‘In a year when one enjoys a bumper crop, one must set aside cash and pay down the credit card balance,’” Moorlach said. “‘We’ve got to get ahead of this mess.’”

In June of 2019, The Epoch Times would communicate my concerns about California’s balance sheet:

“When asked as to whether this provision would add to the debt, Senator Moorlach pointed out that Betty Yee, the state’s Controller, highlighted the significant increase in the state deficit for this fiscal year.

“‘In the middle of the budget conference committee meetings, the State Controller, Betty Yee, released the comprehensive annual financial report for the year end of June 30th 2018. It was finally completed in the middle of June, a year later. [The report] will show you that the retiree medical liability for health benefits for state employees has increased by $44 billion and our unrestricted net deficit went up from $169.5 billion to $213 billion. The state not only this last week approved the largest budget in its history, but it’s also been notified that its unrestricted net deficit is also the largest in its history as well,’ he said.”

And in June of 2020, Amanda Carroll of KFBK AM 1530 stated my position:

“We’re not making any systemic corrections or fixes. We’re not addressing pension plans. We’re not addressing retiree medical. And so those costs will increase in future years.”

So here we are in 2025, and Californians are burdened with even greater debts.

And now the governor wants to skip making payments on liabilities that he has ignored during his tenure, allowing them to grow by the high 7 percent interest costs. Worse, he’s also risking that those benefits may not be fully funded when state retirees will need them.

State leaders were warned to improve the campsite, to no avail. Now, California’s ever-increasing debt is a fiscal train wreck in slow motion. And it’s one that lawmakers and officials should have avoided. Now the Golden State is reaping the results of prior poor financial management, and the next governor is going to be very disappointed with the mess the prior campers left.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

John Moorlach is the director of the California Policy Center's Center for Public Accountability. He has served as a California State Senator and Orange County Supervisor and Treasurer-Tax Collector. In 1994, he predicted the County's bankruptcy and participated in restoring and reforming the sixth most populated county in the nation.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 20:05

Three Choices, None Good

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The moral rot of unlimited debt looks "free" but it's unaffordable in the end.

We like to think we're special and this moment in history is special, but alas, we're still running Wetware 1.0 which was coded between 300,000 and 60,000 years ago, when the last "out of Africa" migration finally got traction. Since then, the code has been tweaked a bit here and there (adults can now digest dairy products, etc.), but we're running the old code, and so we make the same mistakes and follow the same emotional pathways as individuals and as groups.

Which leads us to our current predicament, which is not unique: we're living on debt, "money" borrowed from the future, a future we're assuming will be so over-supplied with energy and other goodies that we'll be able to pay all the interest we're piling up with ease.

All the charts below are shouting "parabolic," as in crazy-unsustainable increases. There's the federal debt, $36 trillion, up 4X from the 2008 spot of bother, there's TCMDO, total public and private debt (McMansions, university degrees and SUVs all paid for with debt), student loans from zero to $1.5 trillion, Medicare and Medicaid, now 1/3 of the federal budget, and so on.

How did we get here? Let's start with what's not taught in Econ 101: primary surplus. Every economy--from households to empires, meaning this is scale-invariant--generates a surplus from its production of goods and services, or it runs a deficit, meaning it has to get more money from somewhere to support its consumption.

The question then becomes, how is the primary surplus being spent? (Or put another way, how is it being distributed across the economy and society?) There are only three options: 1) consume it, 2) invest it and 3) save it / hoard it.

Without making a conscious choice, the US has chosen to "invest" most of its primary surplus in moral rot, unproductive frauds, skims, scams, monopolies, cartels, regulatory capture, grift and graft.

This is the problem with giving an irresponsible teenager a no-limit Platinum credit card with an easily ignored admonishment to "stick to a tight budget, pay the balance off every month." Uh, right.

Since the US can borrow unlimited trillions on its credit card, we can "afford" to burn our surplus on grift, graft, inefficiency, cronyism, profiteering, etc. Since our surplus was squandered on moral rot, we have to borrow trillions to pay for what the citizenry wants and what politicians must promise to get re-elected.

Wetware 1.0: we like windfalls and free stuff, and so every program becomes a "third rail" politically: touch it and you don't get re-elected. But if you borrow a few "free" trillions a year, you get re-elected.

We love windfalls and free stuff and hate hard choices, but that's all we have now. 

We have three choices in how we deal with our dependence on parabolic debt to sustain our profligate lifestyle:

1. Run the debt up to the point that nobody is dumb enough to lend us more, and then default on the debt / go bankrupt. All our creditors are wiped out.

The problem here is all debt is an asset to the wealthy entity that owns it as an income stream. Since the wealthy run the status quo in a manner that serves their interests, they're unlikely to be thrilled with debt jubilees that zero out their assets and income or messy defaults that end up doing the same thing.

So nix that option. The wealthy want to keep their wealth and income streams, and since they own US Treasuries, they're not going to approve defaulting on that debt.

2. Inflate the debt away with sustained high inflation. So we borrowed $1 when $1 bought a lot of stuff, and now we've inflated everything so it takes $10 to buy what $1 bought back then. Now we can pay back the $1 with a fraction of the earnings it took back when we borrowed it.

We've already taken that step--what once cost $1 now costs $10. So the next step is to do another 10X reduction in the debt via inflation.

In previous eras, authorities reduced the silver content of coinage to near-zero, effectively devaluing the money, i.e. inflating away the debt. What cost one mostly-silver denarius in the good old days soon cost 100 devalued denarius.

This looks like some pretty easy hocus-pocus to pull off, but there's a catch: Catch-19, which is devaluing the money devalues trust in the leadership, social contract and the future, all of which leaves the economy and society a hollowed-out shell awaiting a stiff breeze to push the whole system off the cliff.

The problem here is inflation is distributed asymmetrically, along with the primary surplus. The wealthy, powerful elites skim off the surplus, and they're equally adept at distributing the "inflation tax" to the middle and working classes, which soon meld into a single class, the impoverished.

A funny thing about Wetware 1.0 is we're hard-wired to take note of rampant unfairness and eventually we respond in a destabilizing fashion, for example, uprisings, revolts, revolutions, etc.

3. The third option is to root out all the moral rot that's consuming the economy's surplus and our future, scrap all the programs designed in the bygone eras of 50+ years ago (defense, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, higher education, etc.) and start from scratch with new programs whose expenses are limited to what the economy generates as surplus.

In other words, go Cold Turkey on our addiction to living on debt.

Yes, I know: ain't gonna happen, because the moral rot is too deep, it's now normalized to the point that we don't even recognize the reality that there's nothing left but a flimsy facade we paint with gaudy colors to hide the rot.

Everyone assumes the empire is forever and can endlessly fund any amount of grift and graft with borrowed money. But this is a self-serving fantasy, not reality. Every empire of debt implodes.

These charts are merely facts. If we find them depressing, that response says something about our refusal to be accountable and responsible for our choices. Who's going to cut up the unlimited Platinum card?

The federal government's Platinum card balance:

The US economy's Platinum card balance:

Student loans Platinum card balance:

Medicare, which has an unlimited Platinum card:

Medicaid, which also has an unlimited Platinum card, though this is obscured by phony "reforms":

There are only three options, none easy, and not making a choice is a greased slide to collapse. The moral rot of unlimited debt looks "free" but it's unaffordable in the end.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 19:15

Communist Billionaire Accused Of Funding Anti-ICE Riots Mysteriously Vanishes

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) posted on X Wednesday, exposing how Communist billionaire Neville Roy Singham—who operates a dark-money NGO network allegedly tied to funding anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles and resides in China with close ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—has suddenly vanished. 

"Neville Singham— the billionaire communist with ties to the CCP, who funded the LA riots and used immigration & Mexicans as a Trojan horse for communism— is hiding from our letter requesting testimony," Rep. Luna wrote on X. 

She said, "This poses an issue for delivering subpoena," adding, "Therefore, if he decides to hide in CHINA,  we will now be asking the State Dept. and Treasury to freeze his assets/visa." 

"Singham is literally hiding," she emphasized. 

Neville Singham— the billionaire communist with ties to the CCP, who funded the LA riots and used immigration & Mexicans as a Trojan horse for communism— is hiding from our letter requesting testimony. This poses an issue for delivering subpoena.

Therefore, if he decides to… https://t.co/sZtVzfEA9Q

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) July 9, 2025

In June, U.S. Congressional Republicans, led by Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY), launched a formal investigation into Singham's dark money networks and the political affiliations... 

Singham is suspected of funding far-left color revolutions in the U.S. with alleged ties to the CCP. The Oversight Committee's inquiry focuses on Singham's possible role as a proxy in CCP propaganda operations and his potential legal exposure under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. 

Here is a picture of Neville Singham, a Maoist with an office & home in Shanghai attending CCP’s “International Image Renovation Forum.” He has a Chinese name too. He’s dark money is tie to funding Party for Socialism and Liberation which is behind anti-ICE riots. ⁦ pic.twitter.com/zTzt4qGHkI

— Lily Tang Williams (@Lily4Liberty) June 12, 2025

"Nonprofits have become the main vehicle for subverting America and destabilizing society. There is seemingly no enforcement in this sector for criminal activity, money laundering, or as seen with the Neville Roy Singham network, acting on behalf of foreign interests. America cannot continue on this path where a tax-exempt nonprofit can promote a protest, have partner nonprofits cosponsor it, yet none of these entities are held responsible for any damages," stated Jason Curtis Anderson from One City Rising.

If we can actually freeze his assets ... this will be a massive improvement for our country.

We should also look into the Magnitsky Act for Soros. Given the very real deaths and human abuses his NGOs have caused, he may qualify.

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) July 9, 2025

Commenting on Luna's X post, DataRepublican wrote, "If we can actually freeze his assets ... this will be a massive improvement for our country. We should also look into the Magnitsky Act for Soros. Given the very real deaths and human abuses his NGOs have caused, he may qualify." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 18:00

Jeffrey Epstein's Brother Breaks Silence On Bombshell FBI Memo

Mark Epstein, brother of the late Jeffrey Epstein, dismissed a bombshell memo from the Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation that declares the disgraced financier’s 2019 death a suicide, accusing the government of covering up the truth.

The joint DOJ-FBI memo claimed an “exhaustive review” of evidence from Epstein’s death at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City definitively ruled out murder.

“After a thorough investigation, FBI investigators concluded that Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City on August 10, 2019,” the memo reads.

The agencies also brazenly denied the existence of a “client list” tied to Epstein, directly contradicting earlier remarks by Attorney General Pam Bondi. Bondi had previously suggested on Fox News that such a list was “sitting on my desk” for review, igniting speculation about Epstein’s possible blackmailing of globalist elites.

“Every time they say something or try to do something to quash that he most likely was murdered, they put their foot further in their mouth,” Mark Epstein said in an interview with NewsNation host Chris Cuomo. “When Kash Patel came out with that statement, I laughed at how stupid it was.”

The memo has sparked outrage among President Donald Trump’s fiercest supporters, with Laura Loomer leading the charge against Bondi, demanding the Trump official resign from the DOJ.

“How come Blondi didn’t sign her name to her own memo about the Epstein Files? She needs to resign. This is going to suppress the vote in 2026,” Loomer wrote on X. “The American people and MAGA base will not tolerate being lied to. I hope President Trump fires Pam Blondi if she lacks the SHAME to resign. I called for her resignation the day of Binder Gate.”

Tucker Carlson joined the fray, warning Trump that the memo’s release was a “very dangerous” move that could incite a “revolution.” Carlson called the government’s handling of the Epstein case unprecedented. “That is so crazy. This is like-, this is honestly one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen in my entire life. And I just think it’s very dangerous to play around with this stuff,” Carlson said. “Like, very dangerous. I don’t want a revolution, but if you wanted a revolution this is how you would act.”

On Tuesday, Trump himself brushed off questions about Epstein during an exchange with reporters. “Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein? This guy’s been talked about for years,” Trump said, while taking questions during a Cabinet meeting. “You’re asking – we have Texas, we have this, we have all of the things, and are people still talking about this guy? This creep? That is unbelievable. I mean, I can’t believe you’re asking a question on Epstein at a time like this, where we’re having some of the greatest success and also tragedy with what happened in Texas. It just seems like a desecration.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 17:44

The Roots Of Leftist Rage

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmericanGreatness.com,

Across the political left, from orthodox Democrats to Antifa in the streets, the opposition to Trump has lost its collective mind.

The House minority leader and now self-styled tough guy, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, poses with a baseball bat to show how dangerous he is in opposing Trump’s budget bill.

Jeffries harangued Congress for eight hours; Sen. Cory Booker went on for 25—both to no effect.

Bernie Sanders and AOC hit the rally trail in private jets to rail about oligarchs, omitting that the ultra-rich are not only mostly leftists but also the funders of the Democratic Party.

Sometimes the Democrats in Congress make bizarre videos, featuring profanity like f**k or s**t. On other occasions, they scream and interrupt Congress.

Some representatives now confess that they’re being pressured by their constituents to take a bullet for the cause.

The racialist Rep. Jasmine Crockett—sometimes playing the prep-school prima donna, sometimes modulating her accent to pass as the authentic inner-city activist—gains headlines for monotonously ranting about old white men.

On left-wing social media, the assassin Luigi Mangione remains a heartthrob for murdering a health-care executive, replacing the Tsarnaev brothers as the hot new left-wing killer.

He, too, might soon end up with a cover photo on Rolling Stone.

The left-wing internet mob grotesquely claims that children lost to the recent flash flood in Texas deserved their fate.

They even advance three sick reasons for their ghoulishness. Texas Christians supported the MAGA agenda and thus met a just fate. Or, as red-state Texans, they were deservedly collateral damage to DOGE’s bureaucratic reductions. Or, as climate denialists would say, the flash flood took righteous revenge on children for their supposed ignorance.

Add it all up, and there is a sizable leftist “base” that is completely amoral.

Then there are the college campuses, where left-wing anti-Semitism, pro-Hamas terrorism, and DEI-fueled racism risk costing elite universities their multibillion-dollar subsidies which fund the indoctrination of young leftists.

In panic, cash-strapped universities can no longer hide that they were gouging the federal government with outrageous surcharges on grants. They were systematically defying the Supreme Court by their race-based admissions and hiring. They institutionalized segregationist dorms, segregated graduations, and anti-Semitism.

Finally, there is the so-called “left-wing Résistance” and the street mobs’ descent into violence and terrorism.

Sometimes, thugs ambush ICE agents.

Sometimes, they firebomb Tesla dealerships.

Sometimes, they attack federal buildings, shut down freeways, and pelt patrol cars with concrete.

They continue with impunity because they know the Democrat Party cannot and will not censure them.

As in the months-long rioting of 2020, leftist politicos assume their street bandits will cause so much mayhem, violence, and chaos that Trump will either be forced to call out the troops (and thus “prove” he’s Hitler) or be too scared to—only to be blamed for the unrest, which could cost him the midterms.

But who or what drives the insane rages of these various armies of the left?

One is an obvious bleeding Democrat Party.

Despite gushing about its new DEI, illegal alien, trans, and Middle Eastern constituents, it has no political power. Its issues are mostly 30-70 losers.

It has little power in the House or Senate beyond fake-filibusters, performative outrage, or profanity-laced rants.

It lost the White House. The Supreme Court eventually nullified the illegality of left-wing district judges.

It does not trust the people, so plebiscites and ballot measures are mostly out.

Two, unlike his first term, Donald Trump is addressing the causes, not just the symptoms, of the progressive project, whether on the border, crime, cultural issues, or foreign policy.

This time around, there are no John Boltons, no Rex Tillersons, no Alexander Vindmans, and no Anonymouses from the inside to thwart the Trump agenda.

The administration is loyalist and committed to addressing the root causes of the left-wing influence, not just its manifestations.

So, Trump has focused on leftist sacred cows like NPR, PBS, the elite campuses, USAID, and the administrative state—all the inculcators and laboratories of leftist ideology.

Finally, the left is outraged that so far, the Trump counterrevolution is working.

The economy is solid. The border is closed. Military recruitment has radically recovered.

The budget bill has passed. The Iranian nuclear threat has lessened. NATO is strengthening. The Middle East has a chance for calm.

Tariffs did not cause inflation. Deportations created more, not fewer, American jobs. Biological men will likely no longer be winning women’s athletic contests.

Add it all up, and the impotent left in all its orthodox and street manifestations has become unhinged.

And why not when it rightly fears that not just its power, but the very sources of its power, are in mortal danger?

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 17:00

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands 7% in June

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 6.8% in June to 225.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised May reading of 210.9. Over the month, commercial planning grew 7.3% while institutional planning improved 5.7%.

“Nonresidential planning steadily improved in June, alongside strength in warehouse, recreational and data center planning,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Planning momentum in other key sectors – like education, hotels, and retail stores – was more subdued. Expectations for weaker consumer spending and travel demand, as well as volatility around funding, is likely contributing to weaker momentum of projects entering the planning queue for those sectors.”

Warehouse activity gained substantive momentum in June, and data center planning levels remain robust. On the institutional side, large recreational projects propped up the month-over month gain, while healthcare planning momentum continued to accelerate. In June, the DMI was up 20% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 11% from June 2024, and the institutional segment was up 46% after a weak June last year. If all data center projects between 2023 and 2025 are excluded, commercial planning would be up 12% from year-ago levels and the entire DMI would be up 23%.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 225.1 in June, up from 210.9 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  
Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Death Toll In Texas Floods Reaches 119 As Search Crews Race Against Time

The death toll from the devastating flash floods that swept across Central Texas over the Fourth of July weekend has climbed to at least 119, with scores more still missing as search and rescue operations enter their sixth day.

A damaged house, following severe flash flooding, near the Guadalupe River in Hunt, Texas, on July 8, 2025. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP

The hardest hit region, Kerr County - known for its summer camps and riverfront retreats - accounted for 95 of the fatalities, including 59 adults and 36 children, local officials said on Wednesday. Among the dead are at least 27 campers and counselors from Camp Mystic, a century-old Christian camp for girls nestled along the banks of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, Texas.

Sheriff Larry Leitha, whose department has been coordinating the response in Kerr County, said more than two dozen of those killed remain unidentified, underscoring the challenges posed by the scale of the disaster and the swiftness of the floodwaters.

More than a foot of rain fell in under an hour on Saturday evening, officials said, triggering a sudden and violent rise in the Guadalupe River, which surged nearly 30 feet above normal levels - inundating low-lying areas, sweeping away vehicles, and overwhelming even elevated structures.

Governor Greg Abbott said Wednesday that more than 170 people across the region remain unaccounted for. Of those, 161 are believed to be missing in Kerr County alone, including five children and one counselor from Camp Mystic.

"We will not stop until every missing person is accounted for," said Abbott. 

The additional 24 deaths occurred in neighboring counties; Travis, Burnet, Kendall, Tom Green, and Williamson, as the storm system carved a path of destruction through the Hill Country region, long known for its natural beauty and quiet charm.

Search and rescue teams, along with volunteers, continue to comb the area in an effort to locate the missing. Efforts are focused along miles of riverbank, where debris and strong currents have hampered access.

Authorities have not yet released a full accounting of property damage, but officials described the scale of destruction in central Texas as catastrophic. Governor Abbott’s office has not issued a formal disaster declaration as of Wednesday, but emergency personnel from multiple jurisdictions remain deployed.

Officials have not provided details on weather conditions in the days ahead, and it remains unclear whether additional rainfall could impact recovery operations.

As the search continues, families and local communities are grappling with grief and uncertainty. State agencies are coordinating with local authorities to provide support and assistance to survivors and displaced residents.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 16:40

17 Out-Of-Place Artifacts That Suggest High-Tech Civilizations Existed Thousands (Or Millions) Of Years Ago

Authored by Tara MacIsaac via The Epoch Times,

According to our conventional view of history, humans have only walked the Earth in our present form for some 200,000 years. Much of the mechanical ingenuity we know of in modern times began to develop only a couple hundred years ago, during the Industrial Revolution. However, evidence today alludes to advanced civilizations existing as long as several thousand years ago—or possibly even earlier.

“Oopart”—or “out-of-place artifact”—is the term given to numerous prehistoric objects found in various places across the world today that show a level of technological sophistication incongruous with our present paradigm.

Many scientists attempt to explain these ooparts away as natural phenomena. Yet others say that such dismissive explanations only whitewash over the mounting evidence: that prehistoric civilizations had advanced knowledge, and this knowledge was lost over the ages only to be developed anew in modern times.

We will look at a variety of ooparts here, ranging from millions to hundreds of years old in purported age, but all supposedly demonstrating advancement well beyond their time.

Whether these are fact or merely fiction we cannot say. We can only offer a glimpse at what’s known, supposed, or hypothesized regarding these phenomena, in the spirit of being open-minded and geared toward real scientific discovery.

17. 2,000-Year-Old Batteries?

Clay jars with asphalt stoppers and iron rods made some 2,000 years ago have been proven capable of generating more than a volt of electricity. These ancient “batteries” were found by German archaeologist Wilhelm Konig in 1938, just outside of Baghdad, Iraq.

Right: An illustration of a Baghdad battery from museum artifact pictures. (Ironie/Wikimedia Commons) Background: Map of area surrounding present-day Baghdad, Iraq. Cmcderm1/iStock/Thinkstock

“The batteries have always attracted interest as curios,” Dr. Paul Craddock, a metallurgy expert at the British Museum, told the BBC in 2003. “They are a one-off. As far as we know, nobody else has found anything like these. They are odd things; they are one of life’s enigmas.”

16. Ancient Egyptian Light Bulb?

A relief beneath the Temple of Hathor at Dendera, Egypt, depicts figures standing around a large light-bulb-like object. Erich Von Däniken, who wrote “Chariot of the Gods,” created a model of the bulb which works when connected to a power source, emitting an eerie, purplish light.

The light-bulb-like object engraved in a crypt under the Temple of Hathor in Egypt. Lasse Jensen/CC BY 2.5

15. Great Wall of Texas

In 1852, in what is now known as Rockwall County, Texas, farmers digging a well discovered what appeared to be an ancient rock wall. Estimated to be some 200,000 to 400,000 years old, some say it’s a natural formation while others say it’s clearly man-made.

A historic photo of the “wall” found in Rockwall, Texas. Public Domain

Dr. John Geissman at the University of Texas in Dallas tested the rocks as part of a History Channel documentary. He found they were all magnetized the same way, suggesting they formed where they are and were not moved to that site from elsewhere. But some remain unconvinced by this single TV-show test and call for further studies.

Geologist James Shelton and Harvard-trained architect John Lindsey have noted elements that seem to be of architectural design, including archways, linteled portals, and square openings that resemble windows.

14. 1.8-Billion-Year-Old Nuclear Reactor?

In 1972, a French factory imported uranium ore from Oklo, in Africa’s Gabon Republic. The uranium had already been extracted. They found the site of origin to have apparently functioned as a large-scale nuclear reactor that came into being 1.8 billion years ago and was in operation for some 500,000 years.

Nuclear reactor site, Oklo, Gabon Republic. NASA

Dr. Glenn T. Seaborg, former head of the United States Atomic Energy Commission and Nobel Prize winner for his work in the synthesis of heavy elements, believed it wasn’t a natural phenomenon, and thus must be a man-made nuclear reactor.

For uranium to “burn” in a reaction, very precise conditions are needed. The water must be extremely pure, for one—much purer than exists naturally. The material U-235 is necessary for nuclear fission to occur. It is one of the isotopes found naturally in uranium. Several specialists in reactor engineering have said they believe the uranium in Oklo could not have been rich enough in U-235 for a reaction to take place naturally.

13. Sea-Faring Map Makers Before Antarctica Was Covered in Ice?

A map created by Turkish admiral and cartographer Piri Reis in 1513, but sourced from various earlier maps, is thought by some to depict Antarctica as it was in a very remote age before it was covered with ice.

A portion of the Piri Reis map of 1513. Public Domain

A landmass is shown to jut out from the southern coastline of South America. Captain Lorenzo W. Burroughs, a U.S. Air Force captain in the cartographic section, wrote a letter to Dr. Charles Hapgood in 1961 saying that this landmass seems to accurately show Antarctica’s coast as it is under the ice.

Dr. Hapgood (1904–1982) was one of the first to publicly suggest that the Piri Reis map depicts Antarctica during a prehistoric time. He was a Harvard-educated historian whose theories about geological shifts earned the admiration of Albert Einstein. He hypothesized that the land masses shifted, explaining why Antarctica is shown as connected to South America.

Modern studies refute Hapgood’s theory that such a shift could have taken place within thousands of years, but they show it could have happened within millions of years.

12. 2,000-Year-Old Earthquake Detector

In 132 A.D., Zhang Heng created the world’s first seismoscope. How exactly it works remains a mystery, but replicas have worked with a precision comparable to modern instruments.

A replica of an ancient Chinese seismoscope from the Eastern Han Dynasty (25-220 A.D.), and its inventor, Zhang Heng. Wikimedia Commons

In 138 A.D., it correctly indicated that an earthquake occurred about 300 miles west of Luoyang, the capital city. No one had felt the quake in Luoyang and dismissed the warning until a messenger arrived days later, requesting aid.

11. 150,000-Year-Old Pipes?

Caves near Mount Baigong in China contain pipes leading to a nearby lake. They were dated by the Beijing Institute of Geology to about 150,000 years ago, according to Brian Dunning of Skeptoid.com.

A file photo of a pipe, and a view of Qinghai Lake in China, near which mysterious iron pipes were found. NASA; Pipe image via Zhax/Shutterstock

State-run media Xinhua reported that the pipes were analyzed at a local smeltery and 8 percent of the material could not be identified. Zheng Jiandong, a geology research fellow from the China Earthquake Administration, told state-run newspaper People’s Daily, in 2007, that some of the pipes were found to be highly radioactive.

Jiandong said iron-rich magma may have risen from deep in the Earth, bringing the iron into fissures where it may have solidified into tubes; though he admitted, “There is indeed something mysterious about these pipes.” He cited the radioactivity as an example of the strange qualities of the pipes.

10. Antikythera Mechanism

A mechanism often referred to as an ancient “computer,” which was built by Greeks around 150 B.C., was able to calculate astronomical changes with great precision.

The Antikythera Mechanism is a 2000-year-old mechanical device used to calculate the positions of the sun, moon, planets, and even the dates of the ancient Olympic Games. Marsyas/CC by SA 3.0

“If it hadn’t been discovered … no one would possibly believe that it could exist because it’s so sophisticated,” said Mathematician Tony Freeth in a NOVA documentary. Mathias Buttet, director of research and development for watch-maker Hublot, said in a video released by the Hellenic Republic Ministry of Culture and Tourism, “This Antikythera Mechanism includes ingenious features which are not found in modern watch-making.”

9. Drill Bit in Coal

John Buchanan, Esq., presented a mysterious object to a meeting of the Society of Antiquaries of Scotland on Dec. 13, 1852. A drill bit had been found encapsulated in coal about 22 inches thick, buried in a bed of clay mixed with boulders about 7 feet thick.

File image of coal (Kkymek/iStock) File image of a drill Konstik/iStock; edited by Epoch Times

The Earth’s coal is said to have formed hundreds of millions of years ago. The Society decided that the instrument was of a modern level of advancement. But it concluded that “the iron instrument might have been part of a borer broken during some former search for coal.”

Buchanan’s detailed report did not include any signs that the coal surrounding the instrument had been punctured by drilling.

8. 2.8-Billion-Year-Old Spheres?

Spheres with fine grooves around them, found in mines in South Africa, have been said by some to be naturally formed masses of mineral matter. Others have said they were precisely shaped by a prehistoric human hand.

Top left, bottom right: Spheres, known as Klerksdorp spheres, found in the pyrophyllite (wonderstone) deposits near Ottosdal, South Africa. (Robert Huggett) Top right, bottom left: Similar objects known as Moqui marbles from the Navajo Sandstone of southeast Utah. Paul Heinrich

“The globes, which have a fibrous structure on the inside with a shell around it, are very hard and cannot be scratched, even by steel,” said Roelf Marx, curator of the museum of Klerksdorp, South Africa, according to Michael Cremo’s book, “Forbidden Archaeology: The Hidden History of the Human Race.” Marx said the spheres are about 2.8 billion years old.

If they are mineral masses, it is unclear how exactly they formed.

7. Iron Pillar of Delhi

This pillar is at least 1,500 years old but could be older. It remains rust-free and is of astounding purity. It is 99.72 percent iron, according to professor A.P. Gupta, head of the Department of Applied Sciences and Humanities at the Institute of Technology and Management in India.

An inscription from about 400 A.D. by King Chandragupta II on the Iron Pillar of Delhi. Venus Upadhayaya/Epoch Times

In modern times, wrought iron has been made with a purity of 99.8 percent, but it contains manganese and sulfur, two ingredients absent in the pillar.

It was made at least “400 years before the largest known foundry of the world could have produced it,” wrote John Rowlett in “A Study of the Craftsmen of Ancient and Medieval Civilizations to Show the Influence of their Training on our Present Day Method of Trade Education.”

6. Viking Sword Ulfberht

When archaeologists found the Viking sword Ulfberht, dating from 800 to 1000 A.D., they were stunned. They couldn’t see how the technology to make such a sword would have been available until the Industrial Revolution, 800 years later.

An Ulfberht sword displayed at the Germanisches Nationalmuseum, Nuremberg, Germany. Martin Kraft/CC BY-SA 3.0

Its carbon content is three times higher than other swords of its time and impurities were removed to such a degree that the iron ore must have been heated to at least 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit.

With great effort and precision, modern blacksmith Richard Furrer of Wisconsin forged a sword of Ulfberht quality using technology that would have been available in the Middle Ages. He said it was the most complicated thing he'd ever made, and he used methods not known to have been used by people of that time.

5. 100-Million-Year-Old Hammer?

A hammer was found in London, Texas, in 1934, encased in stone that had formed around it. The rock surrounding the hammer is said to be more than 100 million years old.

Glen J. Kuban, a vocal skeptic of claims that the hammer was made millions of years ago, said the stone may contain materials that are more than 100 million years old, but that doesn’t mean the rock formed around the hammer so long ago.

He said that some limestone has formed around artifacts known to be from the 20th century, so concretions can form fairly quickly around objects. (Concretions are masses of hardened mineral matter).

Carl Baugh, who was in possession of the artifact, has said the wooden handle has turned to coal (evidence of its great age) and that the metal its made of has a strange composition. Critics have called for independent testing to verify these claims, but so far no such testing has been conducted.

4. Prehistoric Work Site?

Workers at a stone quarry near Aix-en-Provence, France, in the 18th century, came across tools stuck in a layer of limestone 50 feet underground.

The find was recorded in the American Journal of Science and Arts in 1820 by T. D. Porter, who was translating Count Bournon’s work, “Mineralogy.”

A file photo of a limestone rock formation. Andrew Roland/Shutterstock

The wooden instruments had turned into agate, a hard stone. Porter wrote: “Everything tended to prove that this work had been executed upon the spot where the traces existed. The presence of man had then preceded the formation of this stone, and that very considerably since he was already arrived at such a degree of civilization that the arts were known to him, and that he wrought the stone and formed columns out of it.”

As stated in the case of the hammer above, limestone has been known to form relatively quickly around modern tools.

3. Million-Year-Old Bridge?

According to ancient Indian legend, King Rama built a bridge between India and Sri Lanka more than a million years ago. What appears to be remnants of such a bridge have been seen from satellite images, but many say its a natural formation.

Adam’s Bridge, also known as Rama’s Bridge, or Ram Setu, between India and Sri Lanka. NASA

Dr. Badrinarayanan, former director of the Geological Survey of India, studied core samples from the bridge. He was puzzled by the appearance of boulders on top of a marine sand layer, and surmised that the boulders must have been artificially placed there.

No single natural explanation has been agreed upon by geologists. Dating has been controversial, as some say any given part of the bridge (such as coral samples) cannot give a true picture of how old the entire bridge is.

2. 500,000-Year-Old Spark Plug?

In 1961, three people were out searching for geodes for their gem and gift shop in Olancha, California, when they found what appeared to be a spark plug encased in a geode. Virginia Maxey, one of the three discoverers, said at the time that a geologist examined the fossils around the device and dated the device at 500,000 years old or older.

The geologist was never named, and the current whereabouts of the artifact are unknown. Critics of the claim, Pierre Stromberg and Paul V. Heinrich, only have x-rays and an artist’s sketch of the artifact to analyze. They think it was a modern spark plug encased in a quick-forming concretion rather than a geode.

But, Stromberg and Heinrich have said, “There is little hard evidence that the original discoverers intended to deceive anyone.”

1. Prehistoric Wall Near Bahamas?

A wall of rock in large, thick block shapes was found off the coast of the Bahamas in 1968. Archaeologist William Donato has conducted multiple dives to investigate the wall and hypothesizes it is a man-made structure some 12,000 to 19,000 years old, built to protect a prehistoric settlement from waves.

He’s found it to be a multi-tiered structure including prop stones that appear to be placed there by human hands. He’s also found what he believes to be anchor stones with rope holes in them.

Stones submerged off the coast of the Bahamas, said by some to be a man-made wall, more than 10,000 years old. FtLaud/Shutterstock

Dr. Eugene Shinn, a retired geologist who worked for the U.S. Geological Survey, has said core rock samples he took show a dip toward deep water. If all the cores show a dip toward deep water, this would prove the rock formed where it is and did not form elsewhere, later to be transported by humans to its present location.

His later writings said that all of his samples showed this dip, seeming to prove it is a natural formation. But his earlier study stated that only 25 percent of his samples showed a dip.

Dr. Greg Little, a psychologist who has taken an interest in this structure, confronted Shinn about this discrepancy and Shinn admitted he didn’t really take his study seriously. He said, “I got a little carried away to make a good story.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 16:20

xAI Launches 'Remarkable, Terrifying' Grok 4 Model; Musk Says AI Could Discover New Physics

The xAI team revealed its latest development plans following the launch of Grok 4, as founder Elon Musk shared bold predictions about artificial intelligence.

During a Thursday livestream on X, the xAI team said the first public release of Grok 4 is based on the company’s sixth foundation model.

"In some ways it's a little terrifying, but the growth of intelligence here is remarkable," Musk quipped on the livestream.

"It only gets better from here."

A seventh version is currently in training and expected to be completed “in a few weeks,” with improvements focused on “weakness on the vision side.”

As CoinTelegraph's Adrian Zmudzinski reports, the update is significant in light of Musk’s broader plans. During the livestream, he said that Grok will be able to interact with the real world through Tesla’s Optimus robot.

Musk, who also leads electric vehicle and robotics company Tesla, added that Grok will be integrated into Tesla cars “next week at the latest,” according to a post on X.

This, Musk said, would allow Grok to test whether its theories are valid in the real world, an approach that suggests the chatbot may evolve beyond text-based output and into scientific experimentation.

Source: xAI

New physics, new technology

Musk said that he expects Grok to “discover new technologies that are actually useful no later than next year and maybe by the end of this year.” He added:

“It might discover new physics next year. And within two years, I'd say almost certainly.“

Musk is no stranger to making grandiose statements concerning AI. Last month, he said xAI will retrain Grok on a new knowledge base free of “garbage” and “uncorrected data,” even suggesting the AI would rewrite history in the process.

During the livestream, Musk also said that AI will lead to “an economy that is thousands of times bigger than our current economy, or maybe millions of times.” He went as far as to reference the Kardashev civilization classification scale:

“[With AI] we will get to most of the way, like 80%, 90% of Kardashev 1, and then hopefully, if civilization doesn't self-annihilate, and then Kardashev 2.”

The Kardashev scale measures a civilization’s advancement based on its energy use, proposed by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in 1964.

Type one uses all the energy from its planet, Type two captures energy from its star, and Type three harnesses energy from its entire galaxy.

Programming AI and new capital

The xAI team also hinted at an upcoming programming AI model that was already trained. The new model is purportedly “both fast and smart” and expected to be released in a few weeks.

The news follows xAI securing $10 billion in fresh capital earlier this month, as it doubles down on its challenge to OpenAI, intensifying the race to dominate the AI landscape.

In late May, the firm also “agreed in principle“ to integrate its AI chatbot Grok across Telegram in a $300 million deal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 15:40

It's Time To End The 'Deep State' Fed

Authored by Larry Kudlow via RealClearPolitics.com,

Both Kevins Will End the Fed's Deep State

There’s a great story on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today, called “Two Kevins Battle to Be Next Fed Chair in Trump’s Apprentice-Style Contest.”

The two Kevins are a former Federal Reserve governor, Kevin Warsh, and the director of the National Economic Council in the Trump White House, Kevin Hassett.

They are both very dear friends of mine, going back a long while. And they are both brilliant people.

I doubt seriously that they’re battling each other, but I do think they’re at the top of President Trump’s list for Fed chairman, at least for now.

Here’s a key point, though: the Fed is in need of perestroika.

In other words, the Fed has to be cleansed of its Deep State dislike of all things Donald Trump, and frankly its Deep State bureaucratic groupthink of deadwood economists with models that haven’t worked in 50 years — who are now advising Chairman Jay Powell to fight Mr. Trump and his economic growth agenda.

The next Fed chairman has to go toe-to-toe with the hundreds of Fed economists who are spurring Mr. Powell on in his fight against Mr. Trump’s tariff and reciprocity fair trade policies. Also, against Mr. Trump’s tax-cut policies.

Economic growth does not cause inflation. Tariffs do not cause inflation.

As per the recent paper by the Council of Economic Advisers chairman, Stephen Miran, and even the interview by the Chicago Fed president, Austan Goolsbee, where he acknowledged the real-world fact that exporters and American companies will eat the tariffs, not consumers.

Of course, the Board of Governors has to be changed, and that will come over time.

Importantly, however, presidents of the regional reserve banks have got to be rotated out. The vast majority of them are Obama-Biden lefties who are heavily biased against Mr. Trump.

All this has to be changed: the chairman, the board, the regional reserve bank presidents, and the bulk of the Fed staff economists.

I myself started my career at the New York Fed — and am proud of it. I even had a chance to work with the great Paul Volcker.

But the Fed, over the past 50 years or so, has atrophied into a self-serving, central-planning Deep State that is essentially ignoring and opposing the wishes of the 80 million people who voted for Mr. Trump for president.

It’s time to end the Fed’s deep state.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 15:20

Trump Threatens Brazil With 50 Percent Tariff Citing Trial Of Former President

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Among a batch of letters that President Donald Trump sent out to several U.S. trading partners on July 9 was one issued to Brazil threatening to impose a 50 percent tariff on its exports to the United States.

A ship with the logo of BYD, a Chinese company, delivers vehicles at the Port of Itajaí in Santa Catarina, Brazil, on May 28, 2025. Anderson Cohelo/Reuters

Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday a copy of his letter sent to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in which he accused the nation of becoming an “international disgrace” due to the ongoing trial of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally.

Sometimes referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics,” Bolsonaro is currently on trial for charges stemming from an alleged plot to overturn Brazil’s 2022 election results. Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro and several associates were attempting a coup d’état, including an alleged plan to assassinate da Silva.

Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing and any involvement in the alleged coup plot.

In his letter, Trump called Bolsonaro’s trial a “witch hunt” and said it should end immediately.

“Due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans ... starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge Brazil a Tariff of 50% on any and all Brazilian products sent into the United States,” Trump wrote.

He also cited Brazil’s nontariff trade barriers in his decision to impose the new tariff rate.

“There will be no Tariff if Brazil, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States and, in fact, we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally, and routinely—in other words, in a matter of weeks,” Trump added.

Lula responded to Trump’s letter, saying in a statement that “any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil’s Economic Reciprocity Law.”

The law allows trade, investment, and intellectual property agreements to be suspended for countries that harm Brazil’s competitiveness.

He defended the country’s legal system and said the United States has had a trade surplus of $410 billion with Brazil over the past 15 years.

“Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage,” Lula said.

While the other 21 countries that Trump sent letters to this week were set to return to April’s reciprocal tariff levels, Brazil was not, as it instead received only the 10 percent baseline tariff that was imposed on all U.S. trading partners.

Brazil also does not have a trade deficit with the United States like the other 21 nations, as America ran a $7.4 billion trade surplus with Brazil in 2024. That means the United States exports more products to Brazil than it imports.

However, Brazil, along with the other BRICS nations—Russia, India, China, and South Africa—may see an additional 10 percent tariff after Trump threatened BRICS members with higher levies on Tuesday, accusing the group of trying to replace the U.S. dollar as the leading currency for international trade.

The other nations that received tariff letters on Wednesday are Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Brunei, Moldova, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines. Some will see rates as high as 30 percent on their imports into the United States, with the new rates set to go into effect Aug. 1, absent trade negotiations with the Trump administration.

Trump had initially set 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday as the deadline for U.S. trading partners to cut deals with his administration or see tariffs as high as those imposed in early April.

Prior to the countries that received tariff letters on Wednesday, Trump had sent similar two-page letters on Monday to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Burma (also known as Myanmar), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tunisia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand.

South Africa was included in the BRICS announcement.

More letters could be issued soon, Trump said in an earlier Truth Social post.

Lily Zhou contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 14:40

30Y Auction Stops Through Thanks To Near-Record Direct Bid

After a soft 3Y and a stellar 10Y auction, moments ago the Treasury concluded its weekly issuance of coupon paper with a 30Y auction that came in smack in the middle.

The auction, a reopening of 29Year-10Month cusip UK2, priced at a high yield of 4.889%, up modestly from 8.44% in June and the highest long-end auction since January's 4.913%, which was a record for the tenor (for now). It also stopped through the When Issued 4.890% by 0.1basis point, the second consecutive stop though.

The bid to cover was 2.383, down from 2.430 in June but in the recent range; indeed it priced just below the six-auction average of 2.399.

The internals were also average, with Indirects awarded 59.8%, down from 65.2% in June, and below the recent average of 63.0%. And with Dealers taking just 12.8%, the recent trend of near record Directs continued, as they took down 27.4% today, the highest since October 2011, and the third highest on record.

Overall, this was a mediocre, forgettable auction, with yields on the verge of hitting record highs...

... yet one which certainly took advantage of today's bid across the curve despite yet another markewide meltup.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 14:37

Vertiv Drops After Amazon Unveils In-House Liquid Cooling System, Marking Pivot To Liquid

Shares of U.S.-based data center infrastructure firm Vertiv Holdings tumbled in New York on Thursday after Amazon Web Services unveiled its own in-house liquid cooling system for data centers, raising concerns about future demand for Vertiv's products.

AWS revealed in a blog section of its website about "three things" for data centers to work properly, including:

1. The first is a building, the kind of thing that can protect the servers from rain, snow, and even tumbleweed.

2. The second is power, the juice that keeps all those servers running.

3. The third is cooling. This is the element without which those servers could overheat and shut down in a matter of minutes. It's also the one Amazon Web Services (AWS), and the entire data center industry, is in the midst of transitioning from an air-based to a liquid-based solution.

AWS explained that air-based systems have primarily handled cooling at its data centers, pulling in outside air and circulating it through server racks. However, as AWS noted, "air alone isn't always enough."

"We've crossed a threshold where it becomes more economical to use liquid cooling to extract the heat," Dave Klusas, AWS's senior manager of data center cooling systems, wrote in a statement. 

Klusas's team developed a custom in-house direct-to-chip liquid cooling system that is "ready for use at scale" and "will be ramped up this summer to take on more and more of the cooling workload, and start moving into other data centers," according to AWS. 

Bloomberg analyst Mustafa Okur's first take on the liquid cooling system said this "could weigh on Vertiv's future growth prospects."

Okur noted, "Around 10% of overall sales come from liquid cooling, we calculate, and AWS may be one of the largest customers." 

The news sent Vertiv shares down 6.5% in early afternoon trading, the largest daily loss since mid-April. 

The broader understanding here is the "chilling opportunity" theme playing out in the data center space, which suggests that more powerful and energy-intensive AI chips will require liquid cooling. 

UBS identified Chemours as a top pick last week... Read the full note here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 14:20

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 July

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 July. ...

29 June through 5 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 61.1% (-0.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.71 (-0.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$95.80 (-1.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase further during the summer travel season.

"Shameful": Federal Judge Rules In Favor Of Trump Administration But Adds His Own Personal Condemnation

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Trump administration notched another victory this week when U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta in Washington granted a motion to dismiss a case brought by five organizations to stop the cancellation of more than 360 grant awards by the Justice Department.

However, in reaching this relatively straightforward conclusion, Judge Mehta opted to follow a pattern set by other judges in adding his own personal commentary on the wisdom of the policy change.

Judge Mehta easily found that he lacked jurisdiction over such questions. However, he then vented his own personal views on the policy:

“Defendants’ rescinding of these awards is shameful. It is likely to harm communities and individuals vulnerable to crime and violence. But displeasure and sympathy are not enough in a court of law.”

Actually, neither the court’s displeasure nor sympathy should be part of the decision of a court of law. With all due respect to Judge Mehta, some of us find it shameful that judges are using these opinions to express their political viewpoints.

I previously wrote about this pattern of extrajudicial commentary, particularly among the judges of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee who previously presided over Trump’s election interference case, was criticized for failing to recuse herself from that case after she made highly controversial statements about Trump from the bench.

In a sentencing hearing of a Jan. 6 rioter in 2022, Chutkan said that the rioters “were there in fealty, in loyalty, to one man — not to the Constitution.”

She added then, “[i]t’s a blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day.”

That “one person” was still under investigation at the time and, when Trump was charged, Chutkan refused to let the case go.

Later, Chutkan decided to use the bench to amplify her own views of the pardons and Jan. 6. Like Judge Mehta, she conceded that she could not block the pardons but used the cases to express her personal disagreements with President Trump and his policies.

She proclaimed that the pardons could not change the “tragic truth” and “cannot whitewash the blood, feces and terror that the mob left in its wake. And it cannot repair the jagged breach in America’s sacred tradition of peacefully transitioning power.”

Judge Mehta has also been criticized for conflicted rulings in Trump cases and a bizarre (and ultimately abandoned) effort to banish January 6th defendants from the Capitol.

I fail to see how being assigned this case gives a judge license to hold forth on their own views of the merits of these grants or the implications of their suspension.

He is tasked with deciding the legal questions in the case, which he did so correctly.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 14:00

Delta Air Lines Restores Financial Guidance, Ignites Rally Across Airline Sector

Delta Air Lines soared in premarket trading in New York after reinstating its full-year earnings guidance—a clear signal the carrier expects resilient demand through the second half of the year. The upbeat outlook sparked a rally across the airline sector, lifting shares of peers including American Airlines, United Airlines, and several international carriers.

Delta posted second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.10 on revenue of $15.51 billion. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg were expecting EPS of $2.07 from revenue of $15.45 billion. 

Delta Q2 2025 Earnings Summary (Adjusted Results vs. BBG Estimates):

EPS: $2.10 (vs. $2.07 est.)

Revenue: $15.51B (+0.6% y/y, vs. $15.45B est.)

• Passenger Revenue: $13.87B (+0.2% y/y, vs. $13.84B est.)

• Cargo Revenue: $212M (+6.5% y/y, vs. $206.4M est.)

Passenger Load Factor: 86% (vs. 87% y/y, est. 86.7%)

Available Seat Miles (ASM): 77.65B (+4% y/y, in line)

Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM): 66.42B (+1.8% y/y, below est. 67.33B)

Adjusted Net Income: $1.37B (-10% y/y, vs. $1.34B est.)

Yield per Passenger Mile: 20.88¢ (-1.6% y/y)

The key takeaway from the second quarter is that carriers narrowly beat earnings and revenue estimates, with cargo outperforming and passenger trends slightly below estimates. Yield and load factor slipped modestly. 

Investors were focused on Delta restoring its full-year guidance. Here's an excerpt from the carrier's press release:

• Restoring full year guidance with expectation for earnings per share of $5.25 to $6.25 and free cash flow of $3 to $4 billion

• Announced a 25 percent increase to dividend payment beginning in the September quarter

Ed Bastian, Delta's chief executive officer, stated: 

"In the June quarter, Delta delivered record revenue on a 13 percent operating margin, generating $1.8 billion in pre-tax profit and leading network peers across key operational metrics.  This strong performance is a direct reflection of the outstanding contributions of our people, who continue to set the bar for industry performance.

"As we look to the second half of our centennial year, we remain focused on executing our strategic priorities and managing the levers within our control to deliver strong earnings and cash flow.  Reflecting our confidence in the business, we are restoring financial guidance with an expectation for earnings per share of $5.25 to $6.25 and free cash flow of $3 to $4 billion, consistent with our long-term free cash flow targets."

Delta Full-Year 2025 Outlook (Updated Forecast):

• Adjusted EPS: $5.25–$6.25 (vs. $5.35 Bloomberg consensus)

• Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $3B–$4B (vs. $2.63B est.)

• Adjusted Gross Leverage: Expected to fall below 2.5x

The stock rose 12.5% to $57.10 in premarket trading. Shares have languished so far this year, down 16.2% year-to-date (as of Wednesday's close). 

UBS Analyst Commentary (Earlier This Week):

The news lifted industry peers in premarket trading, including American Airlines Group (+5.2%), United Airlines Holdings (+6.6%), Southwest Airlines (+1.9%), JetBlue Airways (+2.1%), and Alaska Air Group (+3.1%). 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 13:45

6 Secret Service Agents Suspended Over Trump Assassination Attempt: Deputy Director

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Secret Service suspended six agents over the “operational failure” that led to an assassination attempt on then-presidential candidate Donald Trump during a reelection campaign rally nearly a year ago, Deputy Director Matt Quinn said in an interview with CBS News on Wednesday.

The shooting took place on July 13, 2024, at a campaign stop in Butler, Pennsylvania, where a would-be assassin opened fire from a nearby roof, grazing Trump’s right ear. Trump shouted “Fight! Fight! Fight!” to his supporters before Secret Service agents rushed him off the stage.

Firefighter Corey Comperatore was killed in the shooting, and two other spectators were critically wounded. The attacker was fatally shot by a Secret Service sniper.

“The Secret Service is totally accountable for Butler,” Quinn told CBS’s Nicole Sganga. “Butler was an operational failure, and we are focused today on ensuring that it never happens again.”

According to CBS, Quinn said the six agents were suspended without pay or benefits for periods ranging from 10 to 42 days and were reassigned to roles with fewer operational responsibilities upon their return. He said the disciplinary actions were in accordance with a federally mandated process.

Quinn did not specify when the suspensions took place or what specific tasks the agents were assigned to on the day of the shooting, according to CBS.

“We aren’t going to fire our way out of this,” Quinn said. “We’re going to focus on the root cause and fix the deficiencies that put us in that situation.”

He noted that several improvements have been implemented since then, including giving agents in the field military-grade drones and upgraded mobile command posts, which improve their radio communications with local law enforcement.

Quinn was appointed to his role in May, returning to the agency he retired from in 2021 after more than two decades of service.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is helped off the stage at a campaign event in Butler, Pa., on July 13, 2024. Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo

The Butler shooting, which marks the first time a current or former president has been wounded in an assassination attempt since Ronald Reagan in 1981, drew sharp criticism of the Secret Service from members of Congress. Less than two weeks after the incident, Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle stepped down amid bipartisan calls for her resignation.

The Secret Service has faced intense scrutiny over the past year. A 90-page Senate report released last September concluded that the agency’s “planning, communications, intelligence sharing, and related security failures in advance of and during July 13 directly contributed” to the incident.

A separate 180-page report published in December by a House task force made up of seven Republicans and six Democrats said the July 13 attack was “preventable and should not have happened.”

It pointed to “preexisting issues in leadership and training” that resulted in multiple security lapses that day, including the failure to secure the rooftop from which the gunman opened fire.

“Secret Service personnel with little to no experience in advance planning roles were given significant responsibility, despite the July 13 event being held at a higher-risk outdoor venue with many line of sight issues, in addition to specific intelligence about a long-range threat,” that report read. “Further, some of the Secret Service agents in significant advance planning roles did not clearly understand the delineation of their responsibilities.”

In the aftermath of the Butler shooting, Trump was placed under enhanced security measures exceeding the typical level provided to presidential candidates.

Law enforcement officials work at the crime scene outside the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, on September 16, 2024. Chandan Kahnna/AFP via Getty Images

In a separate incident last September, Trump was again rushed to safety by Secret Service agents after a second would-be attacker was allegedly found hiding in bushes with a rifle at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

The House investigation praised the response of the Secret Service to the second alleged assassination attempt, crediting it for demonstrating “how properly executed protective measures can foil an attempted assassination.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 13:25

FICO Stock Down More Than 10% This Week After FHFA Opens Door To VantageScore For Mortgages

Shares of Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO), the company behind the widely used FICO credit score, dropped earlier this week after a federal agency approved the use of its biggest competitor, VantageScore, for mortgage underwriting, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will now allow lenders to choose between FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 when issuing loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which together back nearly half of all new U.S. mortgages.

Previously, only FICO scores were accepted. A prior proposal to require both FICO and VantageScore for each loan faced resistance from lenders over costs and complexity. The FHFA ultimately reversed course, with Director Bill Pulte saying in social media posts that the change is aimed at improving credit access, especially for renters and rural borrowers.

VantageScore CEO Silvio Tavares called the update “long overdue.” Unlike older FICO models, VantageScore 4.0 factors in alternative data like rent, utility, and telecom payments. FICO responded by saying it “welcomes competition on a level playing field,” noting that its newer models also use such data when available.

Despite the policy shift, analysts say FICO’s dominance in the mortgage market—where its models are used in over 90% of lending decisions—isn’t likely to vanish quickly. “This is a win for VantageScore, but we don’t see it as an immediate risk to FICO,” said TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg.

He noted that lenders may still prefer FICO, even at higher cost, due to limited experience with VantageScore and concerns over potential buybacks from Fannie or Freddie.

The Journal writes that Seiberg also suggested that the FHFA’s move may have inadvertently helped FICO by avoiding a mandatory dual-score requirement, which might have increased lender familiarity with its competitor. “[FHFA Director] Pulte may end up safeguarding FICO’s dominant position,” he wrote.

Still, increased competition could chip away at FICO’s pricing power. The company charges credit bureaus $4.95 per score pull today, up from just 60 cents in 2018. “The implicit assumption now is that FICO’s pricing power isn’t the same because there is actual competition,” said Autonomous Research analyst Kelsey Zhu.

FICO shares plunged as much as 19% during the day on Tuesday before recovering late in the session to close down nearly 9%.

Heading into Thursday's cash session shares were down about 11% over the last 5 days.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/10/2025 - 13:05