Carson Block: Shorting Big Tech Is Widowmaker Trade, Even With AI Bubble Fears

Muddy Waters Capital CEO Carson Block joined Bloomberg TV overnight to discuss whether it's time to short the hyperscalers and the broader artificial-intelligence trade. The answer he gave is somewhat surprising.

Block, a notorious short-seller, warned against betting against the tech giants: "If you're out there trying to short Nvidia or any of these big tech names, you're not going to be in business very long."

"I would much rather be long than be short in this market," Block told BBG TV, adding, "You have all these AI adjacent companies, AI pretenders, that's where you would want to look to short." 

He continued, "However, so long as the leaders such as Nvidia are still going up into the right, that would be a very dangerous trade."

Block noted that the surge in passive trading had "broken the markets in terms of greatly diminishing price discovery."

"It doesn't matter how expensive Nvidia gets," he said. "All of these funds that are buying the S&P 500 index, they will not sell Nvidia until they have net outflows. They will buy it everyday at whatever the price is if they have inflows."

Comments from the seasoned short-seller, who has lived through multiple cycles, come just hours after Nvidia jumped 5% in after-hours trading on Wednesday following strong earnings (read report).

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu told clients earlier, "Nvidia's Upbeat Forecast Should Lift Some AI Bubble Fears." 

Antiedu explained further:

Nvidia's after-market strength was sustained, with the stock up 5%, and nothing to nit-pick with a continued upbeat tone on the call with GB300 surpassing GB200, robust accelerator demand and Rubin on track for the second half of 2026. CEO Jensen Huang downplayed any AI bubble fears saying "we see something very different" and reiterated the $500 bn revenue visibility target by the end of 2026. He cited this number will grow with more orders (the Anthropic deal as one example). In terms of supply constraints, Nvidia did acknowledge input costs are going up, but they plan to sustain mid-70s gross margins as it appears to be doing a good job managing the supply chain planning for a "really big year". Overall, a rather upbeat forecast/outlook, which should sooth some of lingering AI bubble fears and a general sigh of relief for markets broadly.

Last week, "Big Short" investor Michael Burry deregistered Scion Asset Management with the Securities and Exchange Commission after receiving a lot of criticism on X over his latest 13F, which showed that roughly 80% of his put positions were concentrated in high-fliers Palantir and Nvidia.

It's no mystery why Burry wants to hide his trades in secrecy - it only takes one X post to go viral, like this one... 

Michael Bury is arguably the worst investor of our generation. Here are 12 of his most smooth brained predictions.

Jan 2017 – Predicted a global financial collapse and WW3 were imminent.

Sep 2019 – Claimed index funds were the next CDOs, ready to implode like 2008.

Dec 2020 –… pic.twitter.com/KyWEyWBe6J

— RJC (@RJCcapital) November 12, 2025

The trillion-dollar question ...

... is whether Nvidia earnings revive another up leg in everything AI and crypto into the holidays. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 06:55

My morning train WFH reads:

• Is $200 Million the New $100 Million in Luxury Real Estate? A surge of ultra-rich buyers has pushed asking prices to new extremes, yet many headline-grabbing megamansions languish on the market or trade for a fraction of their debut numbers. (Wall Street Journal)

• Crypto World Wipes Out $1 Trillion as Bitcoin Plunges Anew. The great crypto crash of 2025 entered a new phase on Wednesday, as Bitcoin plunged to its lowest level in seven months, extending the more than $1 trillion wipeout across the digital‑asset world. The largest cryptocurrency fell to as low as $88,522, with the latest rout hitting investors big and small — from retail dip‑buyers to digital‑asset treasury firms whose stock premiums are vanishing. (Bloomberg) see also The Crypto Trades That Amplified Gains Are Now Turbocharging Losses: Bitcoin’s steep fall highlights the growth of risky bets offered by Wall Street and crypto firms alike. (Wall Street Journal)

• Stock Markets Are Spooked by Fed Rate-Cut Doubts. It’s Too Early to Panic. How quickly things can change. Markets have swung from euphoria to fright in the space of barely a week but it’s not clear that the fundamental dynamics of the U.S. economy or corporate profits have altered all that much. (Barron’s)

• 10 Things We Can Learn From Warren Buffett That Have Nothing to Do With Money: Life lessons from the Oracle of Omaha as he retires as Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO. (Morningstar)

• Hedge Funds Call This Psychologist When Their Traders Start Losing: Dave Popple is tasked with finding who can cut it for hypercompetitive multimanager funds. (Wall Street Journal)

• Janet Yellen Says the US Is Undermining Its Economic Success: The former Treasury secretary warns that Trump’s attacks on the rule of law, the Fed and universities threaten the foundations of American prosperity. (Bloomberg)

• New York Lacked an Affordable Housing Portal. So These Teenagers Made One. Two “children of the pandemic” did something the grown-ups who run the city have never managed to do. (New York Times)

• The running industrial complex: I fell in love with the world’s simplest sport. Then the Instagram ads started flooding in. (Business Insider)

• Steve Bannon advised Jeffrey Epstein for years on how to rehab his reputation, texts show: Pair devised responses to public outrage about Epstein’s criminal history, his treatment by the justice system and his friendships with powerful people. (The Guardian)

• It’s the NBA’s Most Devastating Play—and It Starts With a Missed Shot: Nobody in the NBA is better at gobbling up rebounds than Steven Adams. So the Houston Rockets have turned missed shots into part of a spectacular attack. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our special live episode of Masters in Business Live from the Economic Club of New York, with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler, and his colleague from the Booth School of Business, Alex Imas, Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics and Applied AI; we discuss the new edition of their book “The Winner’s Curse.”

 

This strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to lower-income balance sheets is the reason why consumer discretionary stocks in recent months have been outperforming consumer staples

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

US And UK Revolt Forces Basel To Rethink Brutal Crypto Capital Rules For Banks

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via CoinTelegraph.com,

Global bank regulators are preparing to revisit their most stringent crypto rules after the United States and the United Kingdom refused to implement them, a move that threatens to unravel the long-standing consensus of the Basel Committee. 

In an interview with the Financial Times, Erik Thedéen, the governor of the Swedish central bank and chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), said they may need a “different approach” to the current 1,250% risk weighting for crypto exposures. 

According to global law firm White & Case, the application of the 1,250% risk weight means that credit institutions must hold their own funds of at least equal value to the amount of the respective crypto-asset exposure. 

Under the existing framework, crypto assets issued on a permissionless blockchain, which includes stablecoins such as USDt and USDC, receive the same 1,250% risk weighting used for the riskiest venture investments. 

However, Thedéen acknowledged that the rapid growth of regulated stablecoins has changed the policy landscape.

“What has happened has been fairly dramatic,” Thedéen told the Financial Times, adding that there is a strong increase in stablecoins and that the amount of assets in the system calls for a new approach. 

“We need to start analysing. But we need to be fairly quick on it,” Thedéen added, floating questions over stablecoin risks and if there was an argument that could approach the assets in “a different way.”

Explicit resistance from major economies 

The resistance felt from major economies is now more explicit. According to the FT report, the US Federal Reserve does not plan to implement the Basel crypto rules as written, with policymakers calling the capital charges unrealistic. 

The Bank of England also signaled that it will not apply the framework in its current form. At the same time, the European Union has only partially implemented the 2022 standard, excluding key provisions that cover permissionless blockchains. 

Citing anonymous sources, Bloomberg previously reported that the Basel Committee is preparing to revise its 2022 guidance next year to be more favorable to banks participating in crypto markets.

The report said that many banks interpreted the framework as a deterrent to engaging with cryptocurrency or stablecoin services. 

The talks reportedly intensified as regulated stablecoins gained traction in the US, supported by US President Donald Trump and the passage of the GENIUS Act, which formally authorized the use of these assets in payments. 

Stablecoin boom requires rethink of rules

Thedéen echoed the concerns in the FT report, saying that the increase in stablecoin adoption requires fresh analysis and a potentially more lenient stance. 

However, he also said that reaching an agreement may be difficult as regulators are divided on core assumptions about crypto’s risk profile and the role of bank-issued digital assets. 

“Going further than that at this point in time is difficult, because I’m the chair and there are so many different views in this committee,” he said

Widening split raises level-playing-field concerns

The divergence in policies creates a competitive imbalance for global banks. If EU banks remain bound by these mandates while the US and the UK operate under more lenient frameworks, the playing field becomes significantly tilted. 

This imbalance would influence which jurisdictions can build bank-issued stablecoin products, tokenized deposits or even crypto custody solutions. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 06:30

"Increasingly Becoming No-Go Areas" – Violent Crime Explodes At German Train Stations

Via Remix News,

Exploding violence in Germany has long been tied to mass immigration, as the statistics clearly show, and German train stations are becoming another perfect illustration of this worrying trend.

The number of violent crimes at Berlin central station in 2024 has tripled compared to 2019, which was the last year before the coronavirus crisis. In Cologne, violent crime has grown 70 percent in the same timeframe, according to Welt newspaper.

Those are just two cities, but the same trend is seen everywhere.

“Look at a main train station, in Duisburg, in Hamburg, in Frankfurt. Neglect, drug dealers, young men, mostly with a migrant background, mostly from Eastern Europe or Arab-Muslim cultural areas. This also has to do with irregular migration, as it looks in our inner cities, in the marketplaces“, said Jens Spahn, the CDU parliamentary group leader, in a BILD interview. Remarkably, his own party is massively responsible for Germany’s incredible demographic transformation and crime crisis.

As the left promotes public transport as a big part of the solution to climate change, the reality is that taking public transport is becoming more and more dangerous.

According to police data, the total number of violent crimes at train stations rose from 25,640 in 2023 to 27,160 last year. Meanwhile, women are more and more at risk. Sexual crimes increased from 1,898 to 2,262 within a year, while property damage jumped from 30,961 to 32,671.

This follows data from earlier in the year that showed foreigners commit 59 percent of all sexual crimes on German trains and at train stations, with serious sexual crimes doubling since 2019.

According to a statement, Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP Martin Hess warned: “Train stations, once places of mobility and peaceful encounters, are increasingly becoming no-go areas.“

“In many areas of crime, foreigners are disproportionately represented among the suspects,” he added.

Saxony, which has far fewer foreigners, sees huge crime increase

Even in German states with far fewer migrants, foreigners are contributing to a massive rise in crime and sexual assaults. In Saxony, for instance, crime has jumped massively in just one year at German train stations.

Citing the new data, just released a few days ago, AfD MP Matthias Rentzsch states:

“The sharp rise in crime (total offenses: 11,065 in the first half of 2025) at Saxon train stations is alarming. Whether property crimes, vandalism, or violent offenses: virtually all forms of crime show massive increases. Violent offenses at Saxon train stations rose by a good 42 percent, sexual offenses by over 15 percent, and weapons offenses by almost 87 percent. At some individual Saxon train stations, there were enormous increases in crime. For example, the number of offenses at Dresden Central Station rose by 24.6 percent, at Leipzig Central Station by 57.2 percent, and at Bischofswerda Station by 100 percent,” he said.

Rentzsch points out an especially shocking statistic in one German city: “The Chemnitz Central Station is the unfortunate leader, with an increase of 212.5 percent.”

As with every single German state, migration is the biggest driver of this crime surge.

“The uncontrolled mass immigration, largely driven by the CDU/CSU and SPD, is clearly having an effect: almost Foreign nationals account for 50 percent of all crimes committed at Saxon train stations, and there is a significantly above-average proportion of foreign suspects in violent, property, sexual, and drug-related offenses,” he said.

Notably, in Saxony, only 8 percent of the population is made up of foreigners, yet they are responsible for 50 percent of all crimes in train stations. Another 5 percent or so of the population are German citizens with a migration background.

Government avoids talk of mass deportation, focuses on mass surveillance

Due to the drastic increase in acts of violence around the train stations, Federal Interior Minister Dobrindt (CSU) says he wants to take action, even as the police union speaks of “intolerable“ conditions.

Knives also play an increasingly large role in train stations. During just one year, the number of weapons offenses rose from 589 to 808, and property damage from 16,786 to 17,595. As Welt notes, “Foreign nationals are overrepresented across all crime groups.”

Meanwhile, German police unions are calling train stations across the country “crime hotspots.”

The fact that public space is closing to Germans is becoming more and more apparent, as young men from foreign lands, along with Germans with a migration background, increasingly dominate these vital areas. As with the case of swimming pools and Christmas markets, the solution is more surveillance that increasingly relies on artificial intelligence and a large police state presence.

As Welt notes, “Cameras are now running in many train stations, which are also intended to detect abnormalities at an early stage with AI support and can help emergency services assess the situation. According to Dobrindt, 200 cameras are now in use in Munich alone, which ‘contributes to de-escalation.’ The interior minister announced an expansion of video surveillance – technology has tripled the number of suspects identified in recent years.”

Remarkably, even as these technologies increase more suspects, crime keeps rising. In part, suspects are likely given light or no criminal sentence at all, and many of those who are caught are never deported.

The government admits itself it is not partaking in a mass deportation drive, but instead more “control” and “surveillance” to police the imported population.

“Control, surveillance, motivated emergency services. This is our model against crime and our model for an increasing sense of security in Germany,“ said Dobrindt to describe his campaign.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 05:00

Russian Spy Ship Breached UK Waters, Aimed Lasers At Military Pilots, Britain Says

The British government issued a warning to Moscow on Wednesday, putting the Kremlin on notice over a Russian naval vessel allegedly having entered British territorial waters and aiming lasers at UK pilots.

Defense Secretary John Healey accused the Yantar, a special purpose intelligence collection ship, of its second intrusion into UK waters this year, following a similar incident last January. "At the moment, the Yantar is positioned just off U.K. waters north of Scotland, after moving through the wider surrounding area over recent weeks," Healey told a press briefing held at at Downing Street.

The UK military scrambled aerial assets in response, including Royal Air Force jets as well as a naval frigate, in order to "track and monitor the vessel," during which time "the Yantar directed lasers at our pilots."

AFP/Getty Images

He condemned the use of the lasers against UK aircraft as "extremely dangerous" and then said he was addressing a warning Russian President Vladimir Putin directly: "We see what you're doing. We are fully aware. And if the Yantar continues south this week, we are prepared," he said.

Further according to the BBC:

Healey said the laser incident took place whilst the Yantar was being followed by a Royal Navy frigate and RAF Poseidon P-8 planes deployed to "track the vessel's every move". It is understood the episode occurred within the last two weeks.

Speaking at a news conference in Downing Street, the defense secretary added he had changed the Royal Navy's rules of engagement so that it could follow the Yantar more closely "when it is in our wider waters".

Western allies believe Russian naval 'research vessels' like the Yantar are assisting with Moscow-backed 'sabotage campaigns' in northern European waters. For example the last couple years have seen allegations of Russian vessels cutting telecoms cables under the North Sea and elsewhere.

Healey's warning of being 'prepared' to act could be the closest London has recently come to threatening direct military action against a Russian naval asset. 

Such action could start with an attempt to intercept or chase the vessel away from British waters, or even fire warning shots or more if things should escalate.

A response to the accusations was issued by the Russian Embassy in London. It said Russia isn't interested in sabotaging anything in regional waters. "London, with its Russophobic path and increasing militaristic hysteria leads to further degradation European security, providing the premise for new dangerous situations," it said.

Would appear an RAF voyager and Typhoons have been active in the potential area of the Yantar. https://t.co/ik2ZCu7IkU pic.twitter.com/UvAiB7E0bn

— Civic Intelligence (@CivIntelUK) November 19, 2025

"We call on the British side to hold off taking any destructive steps which might aggravate the crisis situation on the European continent," the embassy added. Russian officials and institutions have been under intense scrutiny in the UK ever since the Ukraine war began, and relations are steadily worsening.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 04:15

Tea And Cocoa May Offset Health Risks Of Excessive Sitting

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

We’re often advised to move more—whether through exercise or simply standing up—to counteract the adverse effects of prolonged sitting. But what if you could get the benefits of standing up simply by eating and drinking certain foods?

The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

New research from the University of Birmingham, recently published in The Journal of Physiology, suggests that eating foods high in flavanols—such as tea, berries, apples, and cocoa—may help protect blood vessels from the damage caused by prolonged periods of sitting.

Sitting Increases Cardiovascular Risk

If you’re a young adult, chances are you’re sitting for about six hours a day—whether at a desk, in a car, or on the couch. All that sitting takes a toll on your blood vessels, raising your risk of heart disease, according to researchers.

Previous research has shown that even a 1 percent dip in how well your arteries expand and contract bumps up your risk of heart disease, stroke, and heart attacks by 13 percent.

The researchers set out to discover whether eating flavanol-rich foods could help offset such damage. Flavanols are naturally occurring compounds found in fruits, tea, nuts, and cocoa beans.

Lead author Catarina Rendeiro, assistant professor in nutritional sciences at the University of Birmingham, and her team recruited 40 healthy young men—half of them physically fit, and half not. Before having the participants sit for two hours, the researchers gave them drinks: some were given a high-flavanol cocoa beverage containing 695 milligrams of flavanols, while others received a low-flavanol version with just 5.6 milligrams.

The team then tracked what happened to the participants’ blood vessels during the two hours of sitting, measuring everything from artery flexibility to blood pressure, blood flow, and how well oxygen reached their leg muscles.

High Flavanol Drink Prevented Damage

After sitting for two hours, men who drank the low-flavanol cocoa experienced stiffening of their arteries, increased blood pressure, and decreased blood flow and muscle oxygenation, regardless of their level of physical fitness.

Conversely, those who drank the high-flavanol drink did not exhibit the same declines, suggesting that flavanols can prevent blood vessel damage associated with prolonged sitting.

“Our experiment indicates that higher fitness levels do not prevent the temporary impairment of vascular function induced by sitting when only drinking low-flavanol cocoa,” study co-author Sam Lucas, a professor of cerebrovascular and exercise physiology at the University of Birmingham, said in a statement. He noted that after drinking the high-flavanol drink, “both fitter and less-fit participants kept their FMD [flow-mediated dilatation] the same as it was before sitting for two hours.”

The study is the first to find that fitness levels do not influence how flavanols affect blood vessels, meaning everyone may benefit from flavanol intake regardless of physical fitness.

Rendeiro told The Epoch Times that the main mechanism by which flavanols work in the blood vessels is by boosting the availability of nitric oxide—a molecule that helps blood vessels relax and expand.

More specifically, she said, evidence from human and cellular models suggests that the flavanol epicatechin and its breakdown products can increase the bioavailability of nitric oxide.

The study did not include women, Rendeiro said, because hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle may influence flavanol effects.

“At the moment, we are not able to know whether these benefits would be apparent in women as well,” she said. ”This needs to be the focus of a future study.”

Estrogen, which rises during ovulation and falls when menstruation begins, has a vasodilatory effect on the vessels, which is generally associated with better blood vessel health, “so it is possible [the] benefits of flavanols may be more apparent during certain stages of the menstrual cycle versus others.”

Many Sources of Flavonols Available

“It is actually quite easy to add high flavanol foods to your diet,” doctoral student Alessio Daniele noted in the statement. He pointed out that there are cocoa products available in supermarkets and health stores that are processed through methods that preserve flavanol levels.

“If cocoa isn’t your thing,” (ZH: wtf) he said, “fruits like apples, plums and berries, nuts, and black and green tea are all common kitchen staples and are readily available.”

Rendeiro said that her research shows consuming high-flavanol foods and drinks during periods spent sitting down is a good way to reduce some of the impact of inactivity on the vascular system, but that breaking up sitting with standing or short walks should be our “main strategy.”

“However, in situations in which that is not possible, using healthy dietary strategies rich in flavanols may help mitigate some of the negative effects of sitting on vascular function.”

*  *  * Oh you thought this was an ad? Nope. Enjoy your chocolate and tea sirs and ma'ams. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 03:30

London Luxury Home Prices Plunge As Wealthiest Flee Ahead Of Tax-Hikes

Asking prices for UK homes declined more steeply than expected in November, down 1.8% on a monthly basis - the biggest fall in prices for this time of year since 2012.

Interestingly, alongside UK government budget anxiety, Rightmove pointed to "the decade-high number of homes available for sale" and resulting downward price pressure, mostly affecting the higher end of the property ladder.

“Months of pre-Budget speculation has taken its toll on house prices as it has with other parts of the economy,” said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.

Colleen Babcock, Rightmove's property expert, commented:

"It appears that the usual lull we'd see around Christmas time has arrived early this year, and sellers who are keen to move are having to work especially hard to entice buyers with competitive pricing...This is a buyers' market."

But the weakness was far from nationwide, with London dominating the drop (especially at the high-end).

Excluding London, all regions in England registered an annual increase in house prices in the year to September. In Scotland they rose by 5.3 per cent, while prices in Wales grew by 2.7 per cent, according to the ONS.

Rumored property tax changes include introducing a new tax on the sale of homes worth more than £500,000, abolishing stamp duty, and introducing a mansion tax on homes valued above £2 million, have dramatically impacted the ultra-high-end luxury home markets with Bloomberg reporting that house prices in the largely-affluent borough of Kensington & Chelsea (K&C) plunging 11.3% YoY, alongside a 14.4% plunge in Westminster.

House prices in the two boroughs combined are above £1 million on average.

Chancellor Reeves is under pressure to fill a whole in the public finances without increasing taxes on what Labour calls “working people.”

A series of policy reversals and rising borrowing costs have already left her billions short of her fiscal targets.

New property taxes would disproportionately affect London properties. A recent report by estate agent Knight Frank found that the capital is home to nearly 60% of all the properties worth more than £2 million.

And forget about any move-up buyers filling that gap...

“In the capital it now takes a couple on an average income around 13 years to save for a deposit, not by accident, but because successive governments have failed to build enough homes,” said Sam Richards, CEO of Britain Remade, a group that campaigns for more development.

The imbalance between supply and demand is giving buyers the twin luxuries of time and choice, and emboldening them to ask for – and get – price reductions.

Simon Gerrard, chair of Martyn Gerrard Estate Agents, blamed the government for the drop in London house prices and warned that a Budget tax on high-value properties would “overwhelmingly hit families” living there.

“It’s nigh on impossible to start a family in the capital and this will ensure that remains the case for many years to come,” he added.

Housing market experts including the TV presenter Kirstie Allsopp saying “people are in a panic” about potential stamp duty changes, and “sitting tight” before the budget.

But, it's hard to argue that these kind of dramatic price declines in the ultra-high-end luxury market are not a very big canary in the coalmine for capital fleeing the repression of the Labour government.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 02:45

Ukraine's Corruption Scandal Might Pave The Way For Peace If It Takes Yermak Down

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

He’s Zelensky’s powerbroker so his downfall could undo the already shaky alliance between the armed forces, the oligarchs, the secret police, and parliament that keeps Zelensky in power, thus pressuring him into peace, especially if his warmongering grey cardinal is no longer pushing him to keep fighting.

It was earlier assessed here that Ukraine’s $100 million energy graft scandal might only result in a cabinet reshuffle at most, the sentiment of which RT chief Margarita Simonyan shared when writing on X “But we all know it won’t” in response to The Spectator predicting that it might bring Zelensky down. The events of the past week warrant a re-evaluation after members of the ruling party demanded the resignation of his powerful Chief of Staff Andrey Yermak on the grounds that he knew about this racket.

This coincided with Axios’ report that the US and Russia have been secretly working on a framework agreement for ending the Ukrainian Conflict, which Politico then reported could be agreed to “by the end of this month — and possibly ‘as soon as this week.’” The latter’s source also allegedly told them that “We don’t really care about the Europeans. It’s about Ukraine accepting”, which they said it might very well do since the plan will essentially “be presented to Zelensky as a fait accompli.”

Politico’s reporter elaborated that “They feel that Ukraine is in the position right now, given the corruption scandals that have been plaguing Zelenskyy, given where the battle lines are at this moment, that Ukraine is in a position where … they feel they can get them to accept this deal.” Accordingly, it can be reassessed that this corruption scandal championed by the US-backed “National Anti-Corruption Bureau” might facilitate an end an end to the conflict, especially if Yermak goes down as a result.

He’s considered to be Zelensky’s powerbroker so his downfall could undo the already shaky alliance between the armed forces, the oligarchs, the secret police, and parliament that keeps Zelensky in power.

Zelensky’s imprisoned former ally Igor Kolomoysky claimed that Timur Mindich, Zelensky’s longtime business partner at the center of this scandal who fled the country to avoid imminent arrest after being tipped off, is “a classic fall guy.”

This suggests that Yermak might be the one who managed everything.

Extrapolating upon this hypothesis, that would explain why the EU is downplaying this corruption scandal, spinning it as supposed proof that Ukraine’s state institutions are working properly, and actively trying to counter the spread of facts in relation to it. Yermak is Zelensky’s grey cardinal and suspected of being the reason why the Ukrainian leader continually rejects peace. If he goes down as a result of this scandal, then peace might finally be possible. He could also take down his European partners too.

After all, some of their officials might have been profiting from this graft scandal or others that he’s possibly involved in, while their intelligence services must have known about the scale of this corruption. If Yermak vindictively spills the beans, provided of course that Zelensky turns on him under pressure from the ruling party (which might be supported by the US as part of a campaign to get him to agree to whatever peace deal that they soon present), then it could lead to political scandals all across Europe.

With this latest insight in mind, it can therefore be assessed that Ukraine’s corruption scandal might pressure Zelensky into a peace deal, but only if the aforesaid sequence of events unfolds. The speed with which everything has thus far unfolded, especially with respect to his ruling party turning against Yermak and the latest reports about the US and Russia secretly working on a framework agreement for ending the conflict, makes this a credible scenario. Everything will certainly be clearer by the end of the month.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 02:00

UK Political Operative Imran Ahmed Of CCDH Should Be Prosecuted Before He's Deported: Thacker

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

A British newspaper reported last week that the Trump White House aims to deport British political operative Imran Ahmed who runs the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a pro-censorship organization Ahmed founded in London several years ago with Morgan McSweeney, the chief of staff to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. But before they kick him out of the country, the Department of Justice should indict Imran Ahmed for laws he broke in America, to include lying to Congress and filing materially false statements with the IRS.

Here’s a quick review of Imran Ahmed and the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH).

Based on documents provided to me by a whistleblower, I reported with Matt Taibbi that CCDH was seeking to “Kill Musk’s Twitter” and interfere in the 2024 presidential elections by allying with Democrats. Our October 2024 investigation blew up across the internet—my first post on X getting over 40 million views, and BBC Today reporting on the story the following morning.

A Trump campaign official pledged CCDH would be “investigated from all angles.” But since the election, the Trump government has done nothing.

According to documents provided by a CCDH whistleblower, Ahmed now lives in Northeast Washington, D.C. with his American wife. And while The Telegraph reported that the White House wants to revoke Ahmed’s visa, I’m not sure this is possible as I have been told that Ahmed might have an American passport.

Instead, the Department of Justice should indict Ahmed first for lying to Congress in an August 2023 letter about the nature of his funding, and second for lying to the IRS when he applied for nonprofit, tax-exempt status for CCDH in 2021. Third, my CCDH whistleblower told me Ahmed has ranted in staff meetings that he “might go to jail.” While nobody inside CCDH understands why Ahmed is frightened about going to jail, they suspect it involves his shady funding.

I uncovered an American company Ahmed incorporated in Delaware that is likely how he hides some of his finances.

Lying and misleading Congress

Trying to figure out who was funding CCDH Congressman Jim Jordan asked Ahmed to explain if he was receiving government monies. In response, Ahmed, sent an August 2023 letter claiming that “CCDH is entirely funded by private donors.”

That claim is false, and providing false and misleading information to Congress is a crime. The British Telegraph reported last January that Members of Parliament were upset because the government had funded CCDH.

Here’s one paragraph from The Telegraph’s report:

Ben Obese-Jecty, the Conservative MP for Huntingdon, said: “It’s disgraceful that taxpayers’ hard-earned money is being wasted on Left-wing campaign groups, one set up by the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, who are waging war on our free media and trying to shut down X.

Again, Ahmed misled Congressman Jordan in his letter that denied government funding, but the Department of Justice has failed to investigate this misleading claim.

False statements to IRS

“A finding that there is a materially incorrect statement on an application for tax exempt status should hopefully encourage the IRS to take a hard look,” said Dean Zerbe, regarding CCHD’s application to the IRS to get tax exempt status. Zerbe is a tax attorney with consulting firm Alliant, and a former Senate staffer who investigated corruption in the nonprofit industry.

So what’s materially false in CCDH’s submission to the IRS?

CCDH falsely claimed in their 2021 submission to the IRS that CCDH was already operating as a registered charity in the U.K. However, London investigative reporter Paul Holden found that CCDH never registered as a British nonprofit. CCDH likely made the false claim to speed up the IRS process to gain tax-exempt status so they could begin fundraising in the States.

Yet, neither the IRS nor the Department of Justice has investigated CCDH’s materially false claim.

CCDH’s Secret Funding

Imran Ahmed launched the U.S. versions of the Center for Countering Digital Hate in 2021. You can find all the nonprofit’s financial reports called 990s, at ProPublica’s website.

In 2021, for example, CCDH reported taking in $1,471,247 in donations. While nonprofits are not required to report their donors, I discovered that someone donated $1.1 million to CCDH in 2021. But they hid the donor by running the money through a private Schwab Charitable Fund, meaning someone secretly gave Ahmed’s group almost 75% of the donations they raised in their first year.

Hiding the money has always been important to Ahmed, and CCDH’s whistleblower pointed me to another financial stream: a private company in Delaware that Ahmed also owns. Mirroring the name of the nonprofit, Ahmed’s private company is called the “Center for Countering Digital Hate Inc.”

Unlike the CCDH the nonprofit, CCDH Inc. (the private company) is not required to make its finances public. Yet I found that the CCDH nonprofit uses CCDH Inc. to pay the nonprofit’s bills. For example, when CCDH the nonprofit pays its law firm, the invoice is paid by the company, the Center for Countering Digital Hate Inc.

You can find the invoice here that CCDH paid to the law firm Faegre Drinker for help with renting a WeWork space and for help with immigration matters. According to Delaware state records, the CCDH company was incorporated in 2020, and the address on the invoice is 639 Morton Place NE which is a personal residence in DC, with 2 bedrooms.

Note also that the CCDH company has a different address from the CCDH nonprofit, which states in its 990s that it operates from an office building at 1250 Connecticut Avenue, in Northwest DC.

Since Morgan McSweeney and Imran Ahmed created CCDH, they have not only hidden the organization’s finances, but also who they employ. CCDH’s website currently shows only 6 employees. My whistleblower at CCDH sent me an organization chart that shows CCDH had 28 employees in the summer of 2024.

Imran Ahmed tells CCDH’s employees that he hides their names so that they are not retaliated against, but this is nonsense. A more likely explanation is money. CCDH’s nonprofit tax records filed with the IRS report that the nonprofit takes in around $2 million a year in donations. Ahmed is paid about $250,000 and his is the only salary reported to the IRS. None of the other salaries are reported, as required.

Instead, CCDH reports to the IRS that a couple hundred thousand dollars covers all their employee salaries.

Several members of CCDH’s leadership team are also paid six figure salaries. Yet, CCDH has never explained how they pay dozens of staff members with only the money they report to the IRS. The Washington Free Beacon just reported that the database for the George Soros, Open Society Foundations details a $250,000 donation to CCDH for 2024, but where else does the group get its money to censor free speech?

Enough is enough. When will Department of Justice demand answers?

Subscribe to the DisInformation Chronicle here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 23:25

Trump Derangement Syndrome Is Real And It's Driving Therapists Crazy

The strange psychological anomaly first appeared in 2016 - Psychotherapists across the US and even Europe began reporting a sharp rise in patients with "anxiety" about the US elections and, specifically, a potential win by Donald Trump.  This "Trump Anxiety" was greatly exacerbated by the establishment media, which was relentless in their propaganda narrative painting Trump as the next "Hitler"; a racist, misogynist monster who was hellbent on "destroying democracy."  

Another group that was feeding the national hysteria over a Trump presidency was psychotherapists.  At the time, Politico asserted that Trump's "crude" behavior could give "new fuel to the charge that his candidacy might be normalizing aggressive, disparaging talk and behavior."  They cited a manifesto published by 3000 therapists declaring "Trump’s proclivity for scapegoating, intolerance and blatant sexism a threat to the well-being of the people we care for...” 

The same therapists urged others in the profession to speak out against Trump, enumerating a variety of effects therapists reported seeing in their patients:

"That Trump’s combative and chaotic campaign has stoked feelings of anxiety, fear, shame and helplessness, especially in women, gay people, minority groups and nonwhite immigrants, who feel not just alienated but personally targeted by the candidate’s message..."

The manifesto also made a subtler point: that all the attention heaped on Trump is actually making it harder for therapists to do their jobs.  Why?  Ironically, they claimed that Trump's campaign "legitimized the tendency of people to blame others for their fears and anxieties instead of taking responsibility..." 

That's right, far-left therapists were accusing Trump of promoting projection and scapegoating - While those same therapists were projecting onto Trump and scapegoating him for the unhinged mental illnesses of their patients.  

This mindless and obsessive rage over Trump, MAGA and conservative culture in general has become so prominent and so easily identifiable that it now has a common name:  Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS).  After Trump's return in 2025, therapists once again report an uptick in Trump anxiety.  They have also revealed that the surge in Trump related fears is overwhelming many of them and causing "burnout."

One therapist writing for US News in April noted:

"In just the last few months, we have exchanged COVID-19 tests for litmus tests on political beliefs. People are scrubbing their social media pages instead of scrubbing their hands to feel safe.  I understand that my patients want to recoil from the chaos. The combination of depression and anxiety is palpable as people try to move forward but have no road map. And as law firms and universities capitulate to the demands of the administration, individuals feel increasingly powerless and helpless. But we must find ways to fight this despair lest we become paralyzed..." 

You might think therapists would be more inclined to question their own hysteria and find a more balanced view, but clearly this is not the case.  In spring of this year, the National Association of Scholars admitted that therapists were "in crisis" over Trump's election win and that they had lost their objectivity.

"...Our field is gripped by a collective complex triggered by Trump’s win—a fixation so overwhelming it risks overshadowing the real, immediate concerns of our clients’ lives."

"...What the post-election reaction exposes is that political bias among psychiatrists, therapists, counselors, and social workers is reaching a critical point. Many in the general public remain unaware of these tensions, but they could have a profound effect on the therapeutic process, potentially skewing the focus away from clients’ individual needs and toward a broader, politically charged narrative."

At least one psychotherapist is finally acknowledging that Trump Derangement Syndrome exists and that it is the fault of patients, not the fault of Trump.  He says that at least 75% of his patients are obsessed with Trump and project their life problems onto the President. 

Jonathan Alpert, whose office is out of Manhattan, also argues that psychotherapists are actually encouraging TDS and irritating the condition by politicizing their therapy sessions. 

"This is a profound pathology, and I would even go so far to call it the defining pathology of our time," Alpert said.

It's important to understand that 2016 was perhaps the height of the liberal order.  Coming off of 8 years of Barack Obama and the rapid spread of third-wave feminism, the woke left believed themselves invincible.  Like a spoiled child that has throws a tantrum because she knows the parents will relent and give her whatever she wants, Zennial feminists and progressives grew up in an America where their ideology was rarely is ever questioned.  

Their delusions led them to believe that they were the overt majority of the population.  They thought that their movement was absolute and that political power was theirs to claim without substantial opposition. 

It's not that Trump has any uniquely dark or evil effect on people, this idea is absurd.  Instead, Trump has come to symbolize an uncomfortable wake-up call for leftists:  They are not the majority.  The world does not belong to them.  Their power is not guaranteed.  They don't get to do whatever they want whenever they want, and, in fact, they are going to have to obey certain historical (conservative) boundaries if they want to function in society. 

This realization has driven them to madness.  An eternal temper tantrum.  A mental breakdown that compels their every feeling and action. 

Trump, like him or not, represents a social and political reckoning that is absolutely necessary.  Children need to wake up from their fantasies and delusions.  Children need to grow up.  TDS is the political left's struggle to avoid growing up; to avoid accepting the reality that they do not run the world.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 23:00

Treasury Sanctions Former Olympian Snowboarder Turned 'Cocaine Kingpin'

The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Ryan Wedding, the former Canadian Olympic snowboarder turned cocaine kingpin, now on the FBI's Ten Most Wanted list, along with nine associates and nine front companies spanning Mexico, Canada, Italy, and the UK.

Wedding sits on the FBI's Ten Most Wanted list and is accused of operating a multi-ton cocaine trafficking operation that spanned worldwide and left a trail of murders with hired hits across the Americas. 

Treasury, the FBI, the DOJ, and Mexico's financial intelligence unit coordinated sanctions targeting his criminal organization. 

According to the FBI, Wedding's organization uses cryptocurrency to move and launder the proceeds of drug trafficking. 

OFAC claims:

• Wedding operates a Colombia-to-Mexico-to-U.S./Canada cocaine pipeline

• Launder millions using crypto, jewelry fronts, and luxury-vehicle holdings.

• Ordered numerous assassinations, including of U.S. citizens and a federal witness.

• Employs ex-law-enforcement operatives, high-end escorts, and corrupt professionals to locate targets, clean money, and hide assets.

Besides Wedding, OFAC also sanctioned:

• Edgar Aaron Vazquez Alvarado ("the General") - ex-Mexican law enforcement, provides armed protection, intel, and owns three Mexico-based fuel companies used as fronts.

• Miryam Andrea Castillo Moreno - Wedding's wife; money laundering and violence facilitator.

• Carmen Yelinet Valoyes Florez - runs a Mexico prostitution ring; assisted in a federal witness murder.

• Daniela Alejandra Acuna Macias - Wedding's Colombian girlfriend; collected money and gathered intel on rivals.

• Deepak Balwant Paradkar - Canadian attorney who arranged drug connections, bribery, and murder plans while violating attorney-client privilege.

Money-Laundering Network:

• Rolan Sokolovski - Canadian jeweler who moved millions through crypto and his "Diamond Tsar" storefront.

• Gianluca Tiepolo - ex-Italian special forces; managed luxury-vehicle assets, operated tactical-training camps used for hitmen, and ran multiple auto/motorcycle firms.

• Cristian Diana and John Anthony Fallon - executives involved in Tiepolo's companies and linked to laundering entities.

All U.S.-linked assets belonging to Wedding and his associates have been frozen, and U.S. persons are prohibited from doing business with any of them, including any entities they own 50% or more of.

The Bureau's Sam Cooper brought Wedding to our attention in early September, highlighting the "missed opportunities" Canada had to capture the former Olympian snowboarder turned cocaine kingpin.

Read Cooper's report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 22:35

After Flip-Flopping Tantrum, Trump Signs Bill To Release Epstein Files

Let's review...

On the campaign trail, Trump promised to release 'the Epstein files' - i.e. the list of powerful men who partook of Jeffrey Epstein's network of sex-trafficked young women. 

After a few months in office, a brave reporter asked Trump 'hey what about those Epstein files you promised?' - which drew a hostile response from the Commander-in-Chief. 'Why are we still talking about that DEAD guy? Who cares anyway?' 

That was the record-needle scratch heard 'round the world - the 'vibe shift' that split the base along weirdly partisan lines that seems to have, for some reason, pitted pro-Israel conservatives like Ted Cruz against America First conservatives like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie - who have both vehemently pushed for the release of 'the Epstein files' while also criticizing Israel's influence in DC - the latter of which has been used as a cudgel to try and discredit the former. 

After Trump's first tantrum at the journalist, which split the base, Pam Bondi insisted that she 'had the Epstein files on her desk' (and alluded to VIDEO evidence), only to release binders of old information to a group of conservative influencers. 

Over the last two weeks things have gotten interesting. Democrats released a cache of Epstein emails mentioning Trump - which essentially established that Trump and the dead pedo were pals. Then, House Republicans released a motherlode of 20,000 documents from Epstein's estate which - in addition to the Democrat release - paints the following picture (in broad brush strokes): 

- Trump and Epstein were pals

- They had a falling out

- Epstein then worked with Democrats and (oddly) his good friend Steve Bannon to help the 'Get Trump' industrial complex... get Trump. 

Then Epstein was arrested by Bill Barr (whose pedocentric author father hired Epstein to teach at the Dalton School) and died in custody. 

What the actual... 

That said, it largely backfired on Democrats, as we learned: 

• Stacey Plaskett was texting back and forth with Epstein during Michael Cohen's 'get Trump' congressional testimony - asking Cohen questions prompted by Epstein.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was hitting Epstein up for a dinner and fundraising (like a direct private dinner) after he was convicted of sex trafficking.
• Larry Summers (Bill Clinton's former Treasury sec. and Harvard president) just went into hiding because Epstein was coaching him on how to cheat on his wife with the daughter of a former CCP official and mentee at Harvard. 

Leading up to last week's release, Democrats, MTG, and Massie have been pushing for the release of the Epstein files - which would consist of everything the DOJ has compiled on Epstein and his network, while Trump has called MTG a traitor, and slandered Massie's dead wife.

We also note that Democrats didn't care about the Epstein files - and covered for his Democrat associates, until now. 

And just like that, after House lawmakers dumped both sets of files, Trump flip-flopped and now supports the release of the (rest of the) Epstein files.

Related:

• Jeffrey Epstein Had Secret 'Panopticon' Recording Room To Monitor 'Guests': Lawsuit
• Leaked Cell Phone Location Data Reveals 200 Mystery Guests On Epstein's "Pedo Island"
• Epstein: Mossad or CIA?

Release The Files!

On Wednesday evening, Trump said that he signed legislation allowing the DOJ to release the files - after both the House and the Senate passed Massie's bill to do just that.

"I HAVE JUST SIGNED THE BILL TO RELEASE THE EPSTEIN FILES!" Trump wrote in a lengthy screed on Truth Social. "As everyone knows, I asked Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, to pass this Bill in the House and Senate, respectively. Because of this request, the votes were almost unanimous in favor of passage. 

"At my direction, the Department of Justice has already turned over close to fifty thousand pages of documents to Congress. Do not forget — The Biden Administration did not turn over a SINGLE file or page related to Democrat Epstein, nor did they ever even speak about him."

If we had to guess, the files are more likely to show that Epstein was a Mossad honeypot operation than Trump was a john. 

Can't wait to learn that [redacted] did all that sh*t! 

Discuss... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 22:10

Wanted Terror Suspect Entered U.S. Under Biden Admin, Got Commercial Truck License

Federal officials say Akhror Bozorov, a 31-year-old wanted terrorist from Uzbekistan, illegally entered the US in February 2023, was released by the Biden administration, and later obtained both work authorization and a commercial truck driver’s license in Pennsylvania, according to the NY Post.

He was arrested in Kansas this month while working as a trucker, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin condemned the sequence of events, saying, “Not only was Akhror Bozorov — a wanted terrorist — released into the country by the Biden administration, but … he was also given a commercial driver’s license by Governor [Josh] Shapiro’s Pennsylvania,” adding, “This should go without saying, but terrorist illegal aliens should not be operating 18-wheelers on America’s highways.”

The NY Post writes that authorities say Bozorov had an active warrant in Uzbekistan for belonging to a terrorist group, recruiting members, and spreading jihadist propaganda online. Despite that, officials said he was granted work authorization in 2024 and then a Pennsylvania commercial license under Gov. Shapiro.

McLaughlin also accused current leadership of failing to protect national security, stating, “Biden and Mayorkas allowed countless terrorists to come into our country. President Trump and Secretary [Kristi] Noem unleashed ICE to target these national security threats.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 21:45

DOJ Sues California Over Mask Ban, ID Rules For Feds

The US Department of Justice has sued the state of California and its leading officials over two new state laws that make it a misdemeanor for local and federal law enforcement officers to wear face coverings on the job, which they use to prevent them from being doxxed by activists. 

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents form a defensive perimeter near an operations center in Los Angeles on June 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The complaint, filed on Monday, argues that the "No Secret Police Act" and "No Vigilantes Act" discriminate against the federal government - and pose considerable safety risks to agents, who are being rammed with cars, doxxed, and generally targeted.

"Law enforcement officers risk their lives every day to keep Americans safe, and they do not deserve to be doxed or harassed simply for carrying out their duties," Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement. "California’s anti-law enforcement policies discriminate against the federal government and are designed to create risk for our agents. These laws cannot stand." 

The legislation was signed into law by California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sept. 20, and takes effect Jan. 1, 2026. Newsom said during the signing that the state was "pushing back against the authoritarian tendencies in action this administration."

"The impact of these policies all across this city, our state, and nation are terrifying," Newsom said. "It’s like a dystopian sci-fi movie. Unmarked cars, people in masks, people quite literally disappearing. No due process, no rights in a democracy where we have rights."

So what happened to J6 protesters? 

As the Epoch Times notes further, federal agents have been wearing masks to protect their identities and prevent them and their families from being doxxed by activists. Doxxing a federal agent, by posting their personal information on social media or other channels, is a felony.

A federal grand jury on Sept. 26 indicted three women for following an ICE agent home, livestreaming their pursuit, and then posting the agent’s home address on Instagram.

Earlier in September, Newsom downplayed concerns about doxxing, saying that such claims are unfounded and unproven, and that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) hasn’t provided the data to substantiate the alleged increase in violence against federal agents.

“All they have provided is misinformation and misdirection,” Newsom said.

In July, a DHS memo said assaults on federal agents were up 830 percent from last year. Two months later, DHS reported a 1,000 percent increase in assaults. Agents have been ambushed, shot at, and attacked with rocks, glass bottles, and other objects.

The federal lawsuit filed Monday argues that California’s statutes overstep principles of federal supremacy by seeking to regulate how federal officers conduct their duties. In the complaint, the Justice Department alleges not only that the statutes are discriminatory, but also that they could lead to prosecutions against officers for taking action to maintain their privacy and the privacy of their families.

The Justice Department says the statutes undermine the enforcement of federal laws, including in immigration matters. The laws, according to the Justice Department, have the potential to compromise ongoing investigations and law enforcement efforts in general.

“Assaults against federal agents have exploded over the last few months, thanks in part to ... political rhetoric aiming to delegitimize our brave agents,” First Assistant United States Attorney Bill Essayli of the Central District of California said. “Unconstitutional laws such as this one further endanger our brave men and women protecting our community. Our immigration enforcement will continue unabated and unhindered by unconstitutional state laws enacted by irresponsible politicians.”

The current suit follows prior actions against obstructive measures in jurisdictions including New York, New Jersey, and Los Angeles.

In February, Bondi announced that the Justice Department would sue New York officials and said the state prioritized illegal immigrants over U.S. citizens.

“If you don’t comply with federal law, we will hold you accountable,” she said.

The DOJ also filed a lawsuit against four Democrat-led cities in New Jersey over their sanctuary policies.

“They have all adopted policies for the clear object of making it harder for the United States to enforce federal immigration law,” the complaint alleges. “These efforts to shield illegal aliens within the Garden State are unlawful.”

In a lawsuit against the City of Los Angeles, Bondi invoked the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which renders federal laws and treaties as the law of the land.

The Trump administration sued Los Angeles in June, arguing that the city’s sanctuary policies prevented immigration officers from carrying out federal law.

“Sanctuary policies were the driving cause of the violence, chaos, and attacks on law enforcement that Americans recently witnessed in Los Angeles,” Bondi wrote in a statement posted on X. “Jurisdictions like Los Angeles that flout federal law by prioritizing illegal aliens over American citizens are undermining law enforcement at every level—it ends under President [Donald] Trump.”

Joseph Lord and Brad Jones contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 21:20

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

China Intel Officers Offering Western Gov't Insiders Cash For "Low-Level Information"

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

Chinese intelligence officers are offering Westminster insiders strikingly large sums of money for what looks like low-level political gossip – using "head hunters" on LinkedIn to offer paid "research tasks" – and effectively flooding Keir Starmer's government ranks with inducements to betray the people of Britain, in Beijing's efforts to build long-term relationships to undermine the West.

That is the stark picture painted in an extraordinary new espionage alert issued by MI5 and circulated inside Parliament, which warns that officers of China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) "offer large financial incentives for seemingly low-level information in an attempt to build a relationship and encourage the target to gain access to more non-public sensitive information."

The preferred methods of payment — cash drops in China or cryptocurrency transfers — are highlighted as a warning to British politicians to think very carefully before entering into any such financial relationship with Chinese-linked actors.

The unorthodox disclosure from counter-intelligence officials that are usually tight-lipped to a fault comes on the heels of the collapse of the Christopher Berry and Christopher Cash insider-threat case — a generational scandal The Bureau has reported on extensively, and which involved alleged suitcase-cash payments, and cultivation of a Westminster researcher with access to prominent critics of China in Conservative MP ranks. MI5 does not name Berry or Cash, but the tradecraft it describes could be read as a point-by-point guide to the methods exposed in that case.

The briefing, titled "Security Service Espionage Alert: MSS tradecraft and methodology," sets out, in unusually explicit language, how a specific "group of highly active officers" from China's secret police service have been trying to penetrate the "UK democratic system" — especially Parliament and the ecosystem of staffers, consultants and think-tank analysts around it.

MI5 begins with a blunt statement of intent. The Chinese service, it says, "seek to collect sensitive information on the UK to gain strategic advantage," and the alert has been triggered by "recent examples of attempts to target UK Parliament for intelligence gathering." 

That line alone resonates with what has emerged in the media leaks explaining why the explosive insider case was dropped under Keir Starmer's government, in which senior national security appointees reportedly played down the risk of non-classified political information being spilled to Beijing through the Cash and Berry pipeline. Reporting in British media has suggested that Starmer's government opted to preserve trade relations with Beijing rather than allow the damning insider case to proceed in court, a move that has infuriated the U.S. government, which warned that Starmer's government risks fracturing the Five Eyes intelligence alliance by failing to protect elected officials targeted by Beijing.

What the MSS wants — and why "trivial" titbits matter

The first section of MI5's pointed alert to British officials is headed, "What do they target?"

MI5 says MSS officers are focused on political and economic material, "particularly of a classified or non-public sensitive nature." But crucially, they have a "low threshold for what information is considered to be of value." Because their collection effort is broad and sustained, "individual pieces of information fit into a wider collection effort and create a cumulative impact."

That is exactly how the Berry–Cash pipeline was described in court documents. Berry, a young academic, allegedly channelled "real-time political intelligence" from his former teaching colleague — a parliamentary researcher embedded with Conservative MPs who were seen in Beijing as potential China hawks — into the hands of an MSS handler known only as "Alex." Those reports, British officials revealed in documents, later surfaced at the very top of the Chinese Communist Party.

The new MI5 document seemingly seeks to underline warnings from that episode. Political insiders are warned not to assume that because something is unclassified, or feels like mere "parliamentary gossip," it is safe to share for money.

Under the section "Who do they target?", MI5 draws a map of the political class that extends far beyond elected MPs. "Individuals with direct access to information on the UK democratic system are high priority targets," the paper states. Where possible, officers approach such people directly. But echoing the Berry–Cash model, MI5 stresses that the MSS also "conducts analysis to understand a target's social and professional network and potential access, cultivating individuals who are one step removed from the ultimate target."

That line could easily describe Christopher Cash, the parliamentary researcher who worked for rising Conservative MPs such as Tom Tugendhat — a prominent China hawk exploring ways to tighten laws against Beijing's infiltration under Rishi Sunak's government, and someone Chinese officials reportedly viewed as a potential future leader of the Conservative Party.

The Service's assessment makes clear that the Chinese secret police are seeking to corrupt the entire ecosystem around Westminster, not just MPs. 

Parliamentary staff manage the flow of papers and private correspondence, giving the MSS a near-real-time view of Parliament's internal machinery. Economists shape the forecasts and policy options on which ministers rely, and can become influential public intellectuals in their own right, making arguments that may tilt debate in Beijing's favour. Think-tank employees and policy analysts prepare drafts and advice that later reach Cabinet tables, providing early insight into government decision-making. Geo-political consultants sit at the junction of business and politics and, as the alert and recent U.S. indictments highlight, can profit from advocating policies that benefit Chinese commercial and diplomatic interests. And a wider cast of professionals identified in the MI5 alert — researchers, lobbyists and aides — act as connective tissue around MPs and peers, giving Chinese intelligence indirect, lower-risk, clandestine access to Britain's political core.

In the Berry case, it was precisely this one-step-removed structure — a researcher feeding an academic, who in turn reported to "Alex," an MSS agent working through a front company in China that promoted investment in Britain — who, British officials say, served as the conduit for real-time intelligence on the Conservative leadership race to Xi Jinping's close ally on the Politburo Standing Committee, reportedly Cai Qi.

The MI5 alert spells out potential criminal exposure under the National Security Act, emphasizing that even unclassified information can trigger prosecution if shared with a foreign intelligence service. It highlights three main offences that could apply to Westminster insiders caught up in Chinese approaches:

• Section 1 – Obtaining protected information: Covers any material gathered for or on behalf of a foreign power, even if not formally classified.

• Section 3 – Assisting a foreign intelligence service: Criminalizes any act that knowingly helps an intelligence operation of a hostile state.

• Section 17 – Obtaining a material benefit from a foreign intelligence service: Targets those who accept money or other advantages—such as travel or consulting fees—in exchange for information.

. . . 

The Bureau News is a reader-supported publication. Find out more here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 20:55

Network Of California Democrat Party Insiders Under Investigation For Fraud

Initial reports of an ongoing fraud investigation in Sacramento by the US Department of Justice revealed that Gavin Newsom's former Chief of Staff, Dana Williamson, was being indicted on 23 felony counts.  Crimes include conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud, bank fraud, wire fraud, filing false tax returns, and making false statements to the IRS.

The charges allege she orchestrated a scheme to siphon approximately $225,000 from a dormant campaign account belonging to former Attorney General Xavier Becerra (referred to as "Public Official 1" in the indictment), using it for personal gain through fake consulting fees, shell companies, and laundered payments.  However, new information shows that Williamson may not have acted alone.  

At least three other California Democrat insiders and two unnamed suspects are potentially implicated in the investigation. Charges against two of them have been formally filed so far, and the investigation continues to grow as authorities sift through evidence involving "The Collaborative", a prominent alliance of Democratic-leaning political consulting firms in California headed by Williamson.  

A longtime Democratic power broker in California's Capitol, Williamson worked as an adviser to former Gov. Gray Davis and as a Cabinet secretary for former Gov. Jerry Brown before opening her own political affairs firm.  She served as Xavier Becerra’s campaign manager when he ran for state attorney general in 2018. Becerra most recently served as President Biden's Health and Human Services Secretary and is running for California governor. 

She was named Newsom’s chief of staff in late 2022, a job she held for about two years. Gov. Newsom's office said Wednesday they put her on leave in November of 2024 after she informed them that she was under criminal investigation.

Other suspects include Sean McCluskie, the former Chief of Staff for Xavier Becerra. He also served with Becerra when he was California Attorney General.

Then there is Greg Campbell, a close associate of Williamson and a well-connected lobbyist and consultant who rakes in campaign finance from massive corporate clients.  He has worked as senior staff for the last five Assembly Speakers including in the role of chief of staff to Speakers Toni G. Atkins and John A. Perez.

And Alexis Podesta (no relation to John Podesta).  She has not yet been charged with any crimes, and her attorney said she is cooperating with the investigation.  Podesta is a Sacramento-based political consultant who served as a secretary under Gov. Jerry Brown. She is also a member of the board of the state compensation fund.  She has worked for PG&E and Disney, and is listed as a managing director and member of The Collaborative, the group led by Campbell and Williamson.

California's capital is reportedly in shock as the corruption charges net party elites and power brokers.  The Williamson investigation was launched three years ago under the Biden Administration and has nothing to do with Trump, meaning no political bias is being applied against Democrats. 

The investigation also exposes the elaborate web of bureaucrats and funding networks festering in state politics.  So much cash flows through these political groups and organizations it is likely that we are only seeing a surface glimpse of the rampant theft taking place. 

If you have ever wondered how it is possible for hundreds of billions of dollars to flood into states like California and yet none of their fundamental problems, (including their homeless problem) never seem to get fixed, this is one of the reasons why.  Democrats are charged with similar crimes nearly three times more often than Republicans. Politics has become a racket, and the Democrats are particularly adept at it.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 20:30

ICE Houston Sweep: 3,600 Criminal Illegal Aliens Arrested, Including 51 Child Predators

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Trump administration’s deportation surge is already producing major results. In Houston alone, ICE has arrested nearly 3,600 criminal illegal aliens in a single operation, among them 51 individuals with child-sex offenses and 67 convicted sex offenders.

These arrests are directly tied to the president’s new focus on narco-terrorism and cartel supply chains.

Houston has long served as a major distribution hub for both drugs and human trafficking; the scale of this operation underscores that the administration is targeting the worst offenders first.

? JUST IN: INCREDIBLE victory as ICE arrested nearly 3,600 criminal illegal aliens in HOUSTON during the federal government shutdown

Wow! They put in the WORK while Democrats shut down the country.

It includes 51 child predators and 67 s*x offenders? pic.twitter.com/rudic0DbEl

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 18, 2025

The sweep is part of a broader nationwide push that began with last week’s welfare-fraud raids, which recovered more than 24,400 missing migrant children from trafficking and exploitation networks across multiple states.

The Houston operation follows directly from last week’s high-impact raids in key locations, where ICE and local law enforcement zeroed in on criminal illegal aliens preying on communities.

In Florida, the state Highway Patrol’s “Operation Criminal Return” led to the arrest of 230 criminal aliens, including multiple child predators and sex offenders, who were then turned over to ICE for deportation.

Florida has been at the forefront of these efforts, with over 6,200 illegal aliens arrested statewide in recent weeks and handed off to federal authorities.

Similarly, in Charlotte, North Carolina, federal agents arrested 130 illegal migrants over a single weekend, many with serious criminal histories including assaults, DUIs, larcenies, and hit-and-runs.

CBP Charlotte Area Port Director Gregory Bovino noted the intensity: “We do expect that number to go up a lot,” adding that nearly 100 arrests occurred in just hours, creating a visible deterrent effect—reports indicate illegal migrants in the area are now “afraid to go outside” as agents saturate the city.

These actions underscore the Trump administration’s strategy of partnering with willing states to target exploitation rings that flourished under Biden’s open-border policies.

Meanwhile, Border Czar Tom Homan addressed criticism from Rep. Alma Adams (D-NC) following the Charlotte arrests, where agents removed convicted child rapists and murderers from her district:

“She can dislike it all she wants… You’d think she’d be hand-in-hand with us, thanking President Trump for focusing on the worst of the worst — child rapists and murderers,” Hooman urged.

He added, that Adams “needs to understand we’re enforcing the law. I mean, what other federal agency does she think should NOT enforce laws? We’re taking public safety threats out of her community every day, which makes her community safer. We’d like her to be a partner, but she doesn’t want it.”

? Tom Homan is DONE with Rep. Adams (D-NC) whining about DHS removing child r*pists & criminals from her community:

“We’re going to KEEP doing it. She can dislike it all she wants!”

“You THINK she’d be hand in hand with us, thanking Trump for prioritizing public safety threats?”

He’s spot on ? pic.twitter.com/6Ft6w67Vpz

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 18, 2025

Homan’s response highlights a recurring theme from the recent operations: Democratic officials who previously decried child trafficking under Biden are now opposing the very enforcement that addresses it.

These coordinated efforts—from Florida’s predator takedowns to Charlotte’s rapid sweeps and now Houston’s massive haul—demonstrate the scale of the administration’s commitment to child safety and border security.

With hundreds of thousands more deportations projected, the focus remains on removing threats while safeguarding the vulnerable.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 20:05

Heart Attack Risk Halved In Survivors Taking Tailored Vitamin D Doses, Researchers Say

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Researchers found that adult heart attack survivors who took specific vitamin D doses reduced their risk of developing another heart attack by more than half, compared with people who did not take the vitamin D dose.

A man sits in a hospital waiting room in Irvine, Calif., on July 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Research done by Utah-based Intermountain Health found that there was a 52 percent lower risk of suffering another heart attack in people who already survived one and who received “personalized dosing of vitamin D supplements” to reach vitamin D levels of 40 nanograms per milliliter for around four years, said a news release from the American Heart Association (AHA).

That was compared to those who did not receive management of their vitamin D levels, the AHA said.

Over 85 percent of the people who enrolled in the study had vitamin D levels below that threshold, while nearly 52 percent in the study group had to take more than 5,000 international units (IU) of vitamin D per day to reach the blood target levels, the Nov. 9 release said. The 5,000 IU dose is around six times the 800 IU that is recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) per day.

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Yes, we sell Vitamin D which we'd be grateful if you'd try - though whether or not you buy from us, please absorb the information in this article.

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“Previous clinical trial research on vitamin D tested the potential impact of the same vitamin D dose for all participants without checking their blood levels first,” Heidi T. May of Intermountain Health said in an AHA statement.

The researchers also checked the study participants’ vitamin D levels when they started the study, followed up, adjusting the dose as needed to reach a range of between 40 and 80 nanograms per milliliter, the statement said.

The authors of the paper suggested that their findings could allow health care providers to focus more on blood testing for people who had experienced heart attacks and to provide tailored doses for them.

While the AHA did not say what form of vitamin D was administered in the study, a separate news release issued by Intermountain Health said that the researchers used vitamin D3, the most common form used in dietary supplements.

In the statement, May said the researchers “observed no adverse outcomes when giving patients higher doses of vitamin D3 supplementation, and to significantly reduce the risk of another heart attack, which are exciting results.”

The study was presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2025 in New Orleans earlier this month. It enrolled 630 adults with acute coronary syndrome who were treated at the Intermountain Medical Center in Salt Lake City from April 2017 to May 2023 and who had an average follow-up of 4.2 years for their condition.

The AHA said that around 107 major cardiac events, such as a heart attack, stroke, heart failure that required hospitalization, or death, occurred in the study period.

The paper released this month adds to a growing body of research around vitamin D supplementation and heart disease. Last year, a study found that taking vitamin D supplements doesn’t reduce the risk of cardiac arrest in older adults, while one published in the British Medical Journal showed there was an association between the supplements and major cardiac events among people over the age of 60.

Aside from supplements, foods that are considered rich in vitamin D include egg yolks, fatty fish, fish liver oil, and cheese, while some foods like cereal, orange juice, milk, and others are fortified with the vitamin. Vitamin D is also activated in the body when the skin is exposed to sunlight.

May added that her organization is encouraging those who have heart disease to speak to health care providers about targeted vitamin D dosing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:25

Watchdog: Chicago Public Schools Blew Millions On Trips, Spas, And Overseas Travel

A new investigation by Chicago Public Schools Inspector General Philip Wagenknecht shows overnight and travel spending in the district surged from about $300,000 in 2021 to nearly $8 million by 2024, according to WTTW.

His report says some staff exploited the district’s “lax, vague, inadequate and unenforced” rules, leading to “exorbitant” post-pandemic travel funded by taxpayers.

The OIG found CPS spent roughly $14.5 million on travel in 2023 and 2024, much of it for out-of-town conferences or overnight student trips.

WTTW writes that the probe began after an elementary school paid more than $20,000 for a staff trip to Egypt without approval; CPS canceled that trip and two others. Investigators later identified more than $142,000 spent by eight schools on overseas travel — including visits to Egypt, Finland, Estonia and South Africa — that featured “tourist activities of debatable value” such as camel rides, a game park visit and hot air balloon rides.

The report also highlighted Las Vegas conferences where more than 600 employees spent over $1.5 million between 2022 and 2024. One principal booked an unapproved $400-a-night suite for himself and his wife.

According to the report, “Nearly 90% of CPS attendees stayed in hotel rooms that exceeded CPS spending limits, and at least two dozen took round-trip Chicago-Las Vegas flights costing more than $1,000,” noting that when the same conference was held in Chicago, attendance was minimal.

The OIG urged CPS to keep seminars local, stating, “Rather than spend millions on professional development at resort spas, luxury hotels and overseas destinations, CPS should keep its educational seminars as close to home as possible.”

CPS has since restricted nearly all employee travel (as of Oct. 29) and created a Travel Review Committee. A spokesperson said the district takes the findings seriously, adding, “Chicago Public Schools remains unwavering in its commitment to fiscal responsibility and the success of our students,” and that CPS is committed “to protect our investments and resources.” The district said new financial systems should strengthen oversight.

Reiterating its mission, CPS stated, “The core mission of CPS is clear: to provide every student with a high-quality, rigorous, inclusive, and enriching education… and to reduce expenditures in a sustainable way.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:00