China To Help Local Government Repay $1 Trillion In Unpaid Bills To Private Sector

Every single day, we get a new story of another stealth bailout by China (since a bazooka stimulus remains out of the picture seeing how China pretty much used them all up by the time covid rolled out and pushed the country's consolidateded debt to GDP to around 400%). Here's another: according to Bloomberg, China is preparing to tackle the massive backlog of unpaid bills owed by local governments to the private sector, an amount of arrears some have estimated at over $1 trillion.

Of course, since there is no actual "loose cash" floating around in China, in another financial MC Escher painting, Beijing will need to take out more massive loans to repay bills that couldn't be repaid because of too much debt. The government is considering asking state lenders and policy banks including China Development Bank to lend to local authorities so they can make the payments in arrears. 

The amount of money under discussion would plug at least 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of debt owed to private companies in the first phase of a longer-term initiative. Officials aim to complete the task by 2027, according to the people.

What this means is that Beijing's massive subsidy engine is about to go into turbo overdrive, and the world is about to be flooded with below cost crappy EVs and enough solar panels to cover the Sahara.

President Xi warned in a February speech made public last month that the government’s delayed payments to companies risks undermining people’s trust in the authorities. Underscoring the importance Beijing is placing on the issue, China’s top leader said unpaid bills could “cripple” affected businesses in the embattled private sector and was hurting "society at large."

Of course, while the proposed assistance would offer relief to private-sector contractors, it would shift more risk onto state banks that already face rising loan losses, and is why gold just continues to surge day after day. 

Local government-related entities in China are estimated to owe 10 trillion yuan, or about $1.4 trillion, to corporates and civil servants, equivalent to 7% of the country’s gross domestic product last year, according to economist David Li Daokui’s estimate. Hilariously, China's GDP continues to grow at a fixed 5% every single year. Which means that the government is now directly funding all of the growth with even more debt! 

Caitong Securities said in a report last week that China may allocate about 200 billion yuan in special bonds this year to settle overdue payments to companies, based on projections for land-reserve and project-construction special bonds.

The nudging has already begun and in recent months, authorities have instructed the nation’s major banks to provide support for the initiative, including asking them to give short-term liquidity loans to regional governments to settle overdue bills tied to their affiliated entities. While such debts are typically not owed by the local governments, they are responsible for repayment because they are backing the entities in debt. The policy may need further backing from regulators, as bankers are concerned about potential risks and need some form of assurance they won’t be held responsible if the advances turn bad, one of the people said.

Bottom line: now we know why there has been such a surge in Chinese stocks in recent days; the simple answer: after the latest $1 trillion debt transfer from the private sector to the government, all risk assets will benefit while China's consolidated debt is about to explode even higher, which also means that the recent spike in gold and crypto isn't ending any time soon. 

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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 20:30

Trump's Crackdown On Prescription Drug Ads: What To Know

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump has directed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ramp up its efforts to ensure that advertising of prescription drugs directed to consumers is transparent and accurate.

President Donald Trump speaks to the media while signing executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House on Sept. 5, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

That includes requiring drug makers to provide more information on the risks of using the drug, and stepping up enforcement of federal laws regulating these ads.

This action, ordered by a presidential memorandum on Sept. 9, could have far-reaching implications for drug manufacturers, who collectively spend billions each year to present their products directly to prospective patients through broadcast media.

The ripple effect could impact new media, as the FDA ramps up enforcement in digital spaces, including via social media influencers, algorithmically served ads, artificial intelligence (AI), and chatbots.

Here’s what to know.

Direct-to-Consumer Ads Skyrocket

Direct-to-consumer advertising for prescription drugs has been regulated by the FDA since 1962 but was not generally used until the mid-1980s. At that time, lengthy descriptions of a drug’s risks and possible side effects were required in each ad.

The practice expanded rapidly starting in 1997, when the FDA added a provision allowing pharmaceutical companies to broadcast ads that included only the most important risks while referring consumers to other sources for more complete information.

This “adequate provision” of risk information could be as simple as including a toll-free phone number or website URL in the ad, or telling consumers to consult their doctor.

Since then, direct-to-consumer drug advertising has grown to a $13.8 billion business as of 2023. 

In 2024, seven companies spent a combined $3.3 billion to advertise 10 medications. The top advertiser, AbbVie, spent nearly $1.4 billion to promote the use of Skyrizi, Rinvoq, and Vraylar. 

Drug companies maintain that their ads are accurate and helpful.

Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, an industry trade group, stated: “[Direct-to-consumer advertising] provides patients with important fact-based, useful and accessible information about potential treatment options.”

The Sept. 9 statement added that member companies are committed to responsible advertising practices that help Americans make informed health care decisions with their doctors.

The United States and New Zealand are the only countries to allow direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

Impact of Consumer Ads

The Trump administration maintains that the practice of omitting much of the risk information from broadcast advertising has negatively affected the health of Americans.

Researchers Janelle Applequist and Jennifer Gerard Ball found that most prescription drug ads—94 percent—relied on positive emotional appeals and did little to educate the consumer.

According to the FDA, advertising generates patient-physician conversations that emphasize the use of medication over lifestyle changes that might be equally beneficial.

One concern is that the ads may lead patients to ask for a prescription that their physicians are not convinced is medically appropriate. A 2002 study published by BMJ concluded that when patients requested a drug, “In most cases physicians prescribed requested medicines but were often ambivalent about the choice of treatment.”

A year later, a study published by the Journal of Medical Economics concurred that exposure to advertising “led to large increases in treatment initiation.”

However, that study reported that advertising also improved patients’ compliance with their prescribed medication regimen. Other researchers have said that direct-to-consumer ads may reduce the chance of illnesses going undiagnosed.

Prescription drug use has increased dramatically in the United States over the last 30 years, to the point where children born in 2019 can expect to spend roughly half of their lives taking prescription medications, according to Jessica Y. Ho, a researcher at Penn State University.

What FDA Will Do Now

First, the FDA will introduce a new federal rule to remove the 1997 Adequate Provision exception. That would likely mean that broadcast prescription drug ads will again have to include a fuller listing of risks and side effects of using a medication.

Federal rulemaking can be a lengthy process, taking one to three years to complete.

In the meantime, the FDA will ramp up enforcement of existing federal laws regulating consumer ads for prescription drugs.

The FDA noted that enforcement letters, a first step in gaining compliance with a regulation, numbered about 130 each year in the late 1990s. In 2023, the agency sent only three enforcement letters.

Federal officials sent 100 letters to drug companies on Sept. 9, advising them to comply with current federal regulations for direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising.

The FDA said it would also issue dozens of enforcement letters targeting “false and misleading advertising” that “misbranded” drugs. The FDA can take a variety of enforcement actions related to a misbranded drug, including recalls, seizures, and civil penalties. Serious cases of misbranding could result in criminal charges.

Also, the FDA will expand its oversight of direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription drugs to include social media. That includes influencer partnerships, sponsored content, targeted ads, AI-generated content, and chatbots.

Other Administration Actions

The executive memorandum differs from an executive order in that it does not have the force of law. This is the latest action by the Trump administration aimed at pharmaceutical industry reforms.

Earlier on Sept. 9, the Make America Healthy Again Commission released its strategy report, stating its intention to evaluate the impact of current diagnostic thresholds and prescription trends on children’s mental health.

In July, the president asked U.S. drug makers to comply with his Most Favored Nation Prescription Drug Pricing policy, ensuring that U.S. consumers pay the lowest available price for prescription medications.

Manufacturers have said that if they lower prices in the United States, they will not be able to recoup research and development costs for expensive drugs.

Americans pay nearly three times as much for prescription medication as any peer nation, often even more. 

An April executive order included actions to ensure that pharmacy benefit managers, the middlemen in the drug supply chain, can’t hold on to rebates provided by pharmaceutical companies and instead must pass savings on to Medicare beneficiaries.

A spokesperson for Novo Nordisk referred The Epoch Times’ request for comment to Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America. AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, and Sanofi did not reply to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 20:05

Poverty Ticked Up Among US Seniors In 2024

Poverty rates ticked up among seniors in the United States in 2024, according to new data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday.

As Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, last year, 9.9 percent of U.S. adults aged 65 and older were experiencing poverty, up from 9.7 percent in 2023.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Poverty rates were highest among under 18 year olds, although the situation improved marginally for the group from 15.3 percent in 2023 to 14.3 percent in 2024, as well as for the 18 to 64 year olds, dropping from 10 percent to 9.6 percent in this period.

This chart looks at the official poverty measure, which is based on pre-tax cash income and continues to be used as a benchmark for tracking broad national economic trends over time.

In 2009 an additional measure was introduced, called the supplemental poverty measure (SPM). Unlike the official measure, the post-tax SPM takes into consideration factors such as food and housing subsidies and medical out-of-pocket costs, comparing it with a poverty threshold that reflects actual spending, while also taking into consideration regional differences in housing costs. In 2024, the SPM rate for seniors ticked up to 15 percent from 14 percent in the two previous years. By this measure, the 65 year olds and up marked the highest poverty level among all age groups.

The increase is is partly attributed to assistance programs from the pandemic years ending as well as inflation.

After seeing Tuesday’s figures, the rights group National Council on Aging (NCOA) released a statement warning that continued cuts would have serious detrimental effects for senior Americans.

“When we lifted up individuals and families during the pandemic, poverty among older Americans went down to 9.5 percent. When that help went away, poverty increased,” said Ramsey Alwin, president of the group.

“Programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Medicare Savings Programs (MSPs), and Medicaid provide much-needed assistance that must continue. But the recently enacted cuts to SNAP will increase hunger among older Americans and the recently passed Medicaid cuts will lead to a sicker older population.”

The NCOA is calling for Congress to reauthorize and fully fund the Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act (MIPPA), which helps Medicare’s low-income beneficiaries afford health care and prescription drugs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 19:40

COVID-19 Is No Longer A Top 10 Cause Of Death, CDC Report Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

COVID-19 is no longer a top 10 cause of death in the United States, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters in Atlanta on April 23, 2020. Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images

The overall death rate dropped to 722 per 100,000 in 2024 from 750.5 per 100,000 people in 2023, the CDC said.

“Suicide replaced COVID-19 as the 10th leading underlying cause of death,” the agency said in its report.

According to data released by the CDC, the COVID-19 death rate appeared to peak in early 2021. Other significant peaks in COVID-19 deaths were observed in mid-2021 and in early 2022, as well as in April 2020 and August 2020.

In the report released this week, the CDC said that heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injury were the leading causes of death. COVID-19 had been ranked as the third-leading cause of death in the United States in 2020, when the pandemic first emerged, federal data show.

After heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injury, the other causes of death listed in the agency’s report were stroke, chronic lower respiratory diseases, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, kidney disease, chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and suicide.

“The death rate decreased from 2023 to 2024 for all demographic groups except infants,” the CDC also wrote in the report, adding that “death rates also decreased for all race and ethnicity groups.”

A report released in May by the CDC shows that the national infant mortality rate dropped to about 5.5 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 2024—from about 5.6 per 1,000 live births, where it had been the previous two years. Federal health data show that Mississippi has the highest infant mortality rate in the country.

In late August, Mississippi’s health department said it declared a public health emergency because of rising infant mortality rates in the state. Data released by the state show that the mortality rate increased to 9.7 per 1,000 live births last year, it said in a statement at the time.

Meanwhile, the U.S. suicide rate has steadily risen, increasing by 37 percent between 2000 and 2018, according to the CDC’s data. That rate dropped slightly between 2018 and 2020 before it returned to a peak rate of around 14.2 suicides per 100,000 people in 2022, the last available data.

Both the CDC and doctors’ groups have, for years, said that heart disease is the leading cause of death nationwide. Earlier this year, the American Heart Association said that “many of the risks factors that contribute to it remain on the rise,” and added in a news release that roughly 2,500 people die of heart disease each day in the United States.

While cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States, the World Health Organization says that it is the No. 1 killer worldwide. The most common cancers, it says, are breast, lung, colon, and prostate.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 19:15

Trump Warns His Patience With Putin Is "Running Out Fast"

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he is losing patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin and could issue new tariffs and sanctions to compel the Russian leader to enter cease-fire negotiations with Ukraine.

Trump said that his patience with Putin’s refusal to participate in peace talks with Ukraine was “running out and running out fast,” during an interview with Fox News’ “Fox and Friends” on Sep. 12.

Trump ist genau wie Putin - ein Blender....
Trump hat erneut erklärt, dass seine Geduld gegenüber Putin zur Neige geht. Er droht mit gewissen Sanktionen.
„Meine Geduld scheint schon fast erschöpft zu sein, und das schnell – aber es braucht ja zwei zum Tango tanzen... Als Putin es… pic.twitter.com/RjA9J8We7n

— Konstanze Hoffmann (@KonstanzeHoffm1) September 12, 2025

As Andrew Thornebrooke reports for The Epoch Times, the president added that “it does take two to tango,” saying that Putin’s recalcitrance on committing to peace talks was in part due to the Russian leader’s mutual animosity with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“There’s tremendous hatred between him and Zelenskyy,” Trump said.

Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine and other international conflicts a key part of his presidential agenda, but has struggled at times to convince Putin and Zelenskyy to meaningfully negotiate on ending the conflict.

The comments follow a high-profile summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska in August, which aimed to bring Russia back to the negotiating table but ultimately did not result in the resumption of cease-fire talks.

“There’s no deal until there’s a deal,” Trump said at the time.

That meeting itself was the result of a threat by Trump to impose new sanctions on the Russian oil sector, including secondary tariffs on nations such as India and China that purchase oil from Russian entities.

Trump renewed those threats during Friday’s interview, saying the United States would have to “come down very, very strong” on Russia if Putin did not commit to peace talks with Ukraine.

When asked what coming down on Russia would look like, Trump said that it would involve “hitting [Russia] very hard with sanctions to banks and having to do with oil and tariffs also.”

Trump also reached out to U.S. allies in Europe earlier this week in the hopes of building international support for secondary tariffs of up to 100 percent on China and India.

The move demonstrates how much Trump and his administration have shifted in handling the war in Ukraine since first coming to office, moving from pausing all support of Ukraine early in the year to renewing weapon sales to Kyiv and threatening sanctions against Moscow.

The difficulty lies in getting either Kyiv or Moscow to relent on any of several key war aims, with Zelenskyy refusing to consider the giving up of any territory to Russia and Putin demanding that it be given territory it has failed to conquer.

For now, Moscow appears undeterred. This week alone, Russia launched its largest aerial assault against Ukraine and sent drones into NATO member Poland’s airspace.

NATO leadership has not yet verified whether the drones entered Polish airspace deliberately or as part of an operation in Ukraine that went wrong.

Trump said during Friday’s interview that Russian assets “shouldn’t be close to Poland.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 18:50

Polymarket Eyes $10 Billion Valuation As Prediction Market Preps US Comeback

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CoinTelegraph.com,

Polymarket prepares US return with CFTC relief, new funding and a valuation that could soar to $10B as prediction markets gain momentum...

Blockchain-powered prediction market Polymarket is reportedly preparing a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion, highlighting the surge of investor interest in prediction markets and crypto ventures.

Citing sources familiar with the conversation, Business Insider reported Friday that Polymarket is exploring re-entering the US while seeking new funding that could more than triple its June valuation of $1 billion. One investor valued the company at up to $10 billion, the report said.

As Cointelegraph reported, Polymarket was raising a $200 million round in June led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, an early backer of companies including OpenAI, Paxos and Palantir.

Polymarket, a decentralized platform that allows users to trade event outcomes without a centralized bookmaker, gained prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, where its markets correctly anticipated Donald Trump’s victory.

Polymarket activity skyrocketed during the US presidential election, based on monthly active traders. Source: Dune

The company was barred from serving US users in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In July, however, it acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX, which could pave the way for a regulated return to the US market.

In September, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, granting relief from certain federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the decision effectively gives the platform “the green light to go live in the USA.”

Source: Shayne Coplan

Blockchain prediction markets gain steam

The move comes as rival platform Kalshi is reportedly nearing a $5 billion funding round, according to The Information. That follows a Paradigm-led raise in June, when the company secured $185 million at a $2 billion valuation.

Kalshi’s recent momentum stems partly from a 2024 court ruling that allowed it to offer political-event contracts — a ruling the CFTC appealed but voluntarily dropped in May of this year. The favorable rulings left intact Kalshi’s right to list political-event contracts under existing regulation.

Source: Factcheck1ntern

Kalshi ranks among the most active prediction markets alongside Polymarket, measured by trading volumes and monthly active users. Still, like Polymarket, its user base has declined since the election.

Market watchers say momentum is shifting, fueled by the start of the National Football League season. Market analyst Tarek Mansour noted this week that Kalshi processed $441 million in volume since kickoff, writing: “NFL Week 1 is equal to a US election.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 18:25

Trump May Meet With Syria's Al-Qaeda-Leader-Turned President In New York This Month

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Syrian media has confirmed that Syria’s de facto president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda leader, will be attending the UN General Assembly in New York City this month, where he may land a meeting with President Trump.

Syrian diplomatic sources told The Media Line that the US has granted an entry visa to Sharaa for the General Assembly, which he will be attending from September 21 to September 25, a step the US is taking while denying visas to Palestinian Authority officials as an effort to impede Western countries from recognizing a Palestinian state.

Via PBS

The Media Line report also said that preparations are underway for a bilateral meeting between Trump and Sharaa on the sidelines of the General Assembly. The two leaders met in Saudi Arabia back in May, and Trump praised Sharaa as a “young, attractive guy” with a “strong past.”

Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, got his start with al-Qaeda in Iraq, where he fought an insurgency against US troops before being imprisoned from 2006 to 2011. In 2012, he travelled to Syria and formed al-Qaeda’s affiliate in the country, the al-Nusra Front.

In 2016, Sharaa claimed the al-Nusra Front was cutting ties with al-Qaeda. At the time, he thanked the “commanders of al-Qaeda for having understood the need to break ties.” In 2017, Julani merged his group with several other Islamist factions to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the offensive that ousted former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

According to The New Arab, Syria’s new foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, who will also be traveling to New York, was also a founding member of the al-Nusra Front and oversaw its transition into HTS.

The US will be welcoming the two former al-Qaeda leaders to New York less than two weeks after the 24th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, which killed  2,606 people at the Twin Towers in New York City.

Reports say the US may be placing travel restrictions on Iranian officials who are attending the General Assembly, but there’s no sign that travel will be limited for Sharaa and his delegation. The Media Line report said Sharaa may also visit New York’s Turkish House, the headquarters of several Turkish diplomatic missions, together with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one of HTS’s major backers.

While Sharaa now presents himself as a moderate, Syrian government forces have been responsible for the massacre of thousands of Alawites and other minorities since he took power. Since Assad was ousted, there have been over 3,000 extrajudicial executions in Syria.

Jolani | the West’s new face of ‘Syrian democracy,’ 24 years after 9/11 pic.twitter.com/VSr03bfOQa

— HQ (@HKX37) September 12, 2025

Despite the violence, the US has embraced the new Syrian government by lifting sanctions and removing HTS from its list of terror organizations. Israel, which supported and celebrated the overthrow of Assad, has used the HTS takeover as a pretext to invade and occupy more territory in southwest Syria.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 17:40



 

 

This week, I speak with Heather Boushey, a former Economist for the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, a former member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. She is also a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. In this episode, they discuss the economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, Biden’s economic policy, and economic equality in the US. She is the author of “Unbound: How Economic Inequality Constricts Our Economy and What We Can Do About.”

A list of books we discussed is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Jaime Magyera, Head of U.S. Wealth & Retirement Business at BlackRock. She has driven the firms adoption of alternatives as a fast growing part of the Blackrock platform for advisors and RIAs. The firm manages over $11 trillion in client assets, and Magyera is a Wealth and Retirement divisions are a substantial portion of that.

 

 

 

Authored Books

 

 

Books Barry Mentioned

 

 

The post MiB: Heather Boushey on Reimagining the Economy appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 September

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 September. ...

31 August through 6 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 57.7% (-0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$149.52 (-0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$86.20 (-0.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Are Moviegoers Tired Of Comic Book Adaptations?

If there ever was a surefire way of making a billion dollars at the box office, it was making a big-budget superhero movie in the 2010s.

Between 2010 and 2019, twelve movies based on comic book adaptations reached the billion-dollar threshold at the global box office, with “Avengers: Infinity War”, released in 2018, and “Avengers: Endgame” from 2019 even surpassing $2 billion in box office sales.

Since 2020, there has only been one more billion-dollar comic book adaptation – “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (2021) – or two, if you’re counting “Deadpool & Wolverine”, which is officially a spin-off from the X-Men series.

Moreover, several high-profile releases, e.g. “The Marvels” (2023) or “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” (2023), have disappointed at the box office in recent years, giving rise to the idea of “superhero fatigue”.

As Statista's Felix Richter shows in the chart below, according to The Numbers, adaptations of comic books and graphic novels accounted for just 15.6 and 3.2 percent of ticket sales at the North American box office in 2023 and 2024, down from 29.9 and 31.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

You will find more infographics at Statista

While some argue that this is due to “superhero fatigue” after a decade-long overabundance of DC and Marvel movies, others say it’s just “mediocre movie fatigue”, suggesting that many of the latest installments of popular comic book franchises have been lazy cash grabs.

This year’s box office performance of major comic book adaptations such as “Superman” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” would suggest that audiences are still open to enjoying a good superhero blockbuster.

Both movies received generally positive reviews and are among the highest-grossing films of the year so far.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 14:45

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Strong Demand; Crypto Market Tops $4 Trillion As Gen-A Shuns Gold

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw strong demand this week, recording more than $1.7 billion in inflows before the trading week closes on Friday. 

SoSoValue data showed that the ETFs had a strong week, with Wednesday having nearly $800 million in inflows. As of Thursday, the ETF tracker showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs already had $1.7 billion in net inflows this week.

As Ezra Reguerra reports via CoinTelegraph.com, the strong performance marks the ETFs’ biggest weekly total in nearly two months, highlighting renewed confidence in the asset class. 

The strong ETF inflows came as Bitcoin climbed back to $115,000, up 4.5% from its $110,000 price last Friday. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF daily net inflow data. Source: SoSoValue

Spot Ether ETFs recover from nearly $800 million in outflows

Spot Ether ETFs also had a strong week, recording over $230 million in net inflows as of Thursday. This is a sharp asset class recovery after nearly $800 million in outflows last week. 

While ETH ETFs recover, corporate treasury holder BitMine continued to stack up Ether  purchases this week. On Monday, BitMine purchased 202,500 ETH, which sent its holdings to the 2 million ETH milestone. The company made a follow-up purchase on Wednesday, buying $200 million in ETH from Bitgo. 

Data from the Strategic ETH Reserve website shows that BitMine currently holds over 2 million ETH, worth $9.3 billion at the time of writing. 

The ETH data tracker also shows that in total, ETH reserve companies hold nearly 5 million ETH, worth about $22.1 billion.

Meanwhile, ETF issuers hold 6.6 million ETH, worth nearly $30 billion, to back the assets. This means that almost 12 million ETH, nearly 10% of the circulating supply are held by institutions. 

CZ compares the crypto market cap to Nvidia 

The broader crypto market also crossed $4.1 trillion again this week, a level previously reached in July and August. 

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao highlighted the milestone on X, comparing the combined value of the entire crypto space to Nvidia, which stands at roughly $4.3 trillion, according to 8marketcap. 

“The combined market cap of all future money is less than one chip company’s market cap. You do the math,” Zhao wrote. 

Indeed, as Darius Moukhtarzadeh, Research Strategist at 21Shares, writes, Gen Alpha will grow up with Bitcoin as a cultural and financial native, making it their default store of value over traditional gold investments.

Gold has long been considered the ultimate store of value — shiny, scarce and time-tested. 

For Gen Alpha, however, the first generation truly born into a digital world, that shine is already starting to fade. 

Instead, they’ll grow up with a very different baseline for value, how it moves and where it lives. In reality, Bitcoin won’t just be an investment option; it will be a default for this generation.

Born into a digital world

Unlike previous generations, Gen Alpha won’t discover Bitcoin as something new or revolutionary. They’ll inherit a world where Bitcoin has always existed, present in financial apps, discussed in classrooms and embedded in digital platforms. To them, it won’t feel risky or radical. It will feel normal.

From day one, their experience of value will be digital-first. Physical cash will be rare, as most payments will be cashless. They’ll learn about scarcity through gaming tokens and in-app economies, not gold coins in a drawer. In that context, Bitcoin won’t seem exotic; it will be part of everyday life. On the contrary, gold will be perceived as exotic by Gen Alpha as a yellow stone with historic value. 

Bitcoin is easier to access than gold ever was

Gold is hard. You need to buy it from a trusted dealer and store it physically to have complete control. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a few taps away. With child-friendly fintech apps and educational tools already present, Gen Alpha could be exposed to Bitcoin before they even understand how a savings account works. 

Access will be seamless through crypto-enabled games, loyalty rewards or allowance apps. The barriers that once made Bitcoin feel technical or inaccessible are rapidly disappearing.

Trust will be earned, not assumed

Where older generations gradually lost faith in institutions, Gen Alpha started from a place of deep skepticism. They’re growing up in an era of economic uncertainty, institutional distrust and algorithmic information. For them, “trust” won’t be given to governments or banks by default; it will have to be earned through transparency.

Bitcoin, by design, fits that worldview. It’s open-source, auditable and decentralized. It doesn’t ask for trust, it allows verification. In a world where the mantra is “don’t trust, verify,” Gen Alpha will naturally gravitate toward systems that don’t require faith in intermediaries.

Bitcoin will be culturally native

Bitcoin is no longer just an asset; it’s part of pop culture. For Gen Alpha, that cultural familiarity will only deepen. They’ll encounter Bitcoin through finance apps, influencers, creators, games and even school programs.

Just like social media was second nature to Gen Z, digital assets will be embedded in Gen Alpha’s online identity. That constant exposure through memes, brands, and mainstream platforms will make Bitcoin feel more culturally relevant than something like gold, which lacks that digital presence.

Bitcoin is programmable

Gold is physical, heavy, and inert. It sits in vaults. It’s hard to move and harder to use. Bitcoin is the opposite. It’s programmable, borderless, divisible and integrated into the broader world of decentralized finance.

As Gen Alpha grows up expecting digital systems to be flexible and responsive, Bitcoin’s dynamic nature will be a feature, not a bonus. It simply fits the world they’ll build and live in.

A generation that won’t need convincing

Every generation reshapes the financial system in its image. Millennials flirted with Bitcoin. Gen Z normalized it. Gen Alpha won’t have to be convinced.

They won’t see Bitcoin as an alternative to the old system. They’ll see it as part of the system. Not because of ideology, but because of familiarity, usability and cultural relevance. 

Gold had its moment. Bitcoin is just getting started. Gen Alpha will grow up with it in their wallets, not in a vault.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 14:25

Qatar Pressures Arab Allies To Close Embassies In Israel: 'The Gloves Are Off'

Qatar is leaning on Arab countries who have embassies in Israel to close them, as diplomatic retaliation for this week's brazen Israeli airstrikes on Doha, which killed several Hamas leaders - including Khalil al-Hayya - and a Qatari security official.

Specifically, the United Arab Emirates is being pressured to shutter its embassy in Tel Aviv. The UAE was an initial signer of the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords. It officially inaugurated its embassy in July of 2021 as part of the historic normalization deal.

Via Associated Press

Washington has been hoping to expand the accords to other Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, but with the Gaza war raging, this seems definitely off and nowhere on the horizon.

"The gloves are off," a Gulf diplomat speaking with Haaretz said. The UAE has vehemently condemned the attack on Qatar, and  summoned the Israeli deputy ambassador, David Ohad Horsandi, to complain of "outrageous attack" which violated Qatar's sovereignty. 

Haaretz has suggested that Qatar might even alter its security ties with the United States. "Qatar's prime minister told the White House his country would now re-evaluate its security partnership with Washington," Haaretz reported.

"From Doha's perspective, accusing Qatar of hosting Hamas leaders is seen as a knife in the back and could affect continued cooperation with Mossad as well as other interactions between the emirate and Israel," Haaretz added.

The oil and gas rich GCC countries had throughout the decade-plus long Syria proxy war cooperated closely with Israeli intelligence, past reports have said.

But the Gaza crisis has strained all of these past ties, which mostly focused on countering Iranian and Shia influence across the Middle East, and Assad became prime target number one for regime change - given his deep cooperation with the Iranians.

Yet even the Saudis have by and large mended relations with Iran. While the royal family pays lip service to defending Palestinians, it is the common populations of Gulf states which tend to be more hardline in the pro-Palestinian cause.

HE the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs @MBA_AlThani_, stated in an interview with CNN: “We categorically reject such threats coming from an individual like Netanyahu—someone who speaks of bringing others to justice, while he himself is the one who should be brought… pic.twitter.com/xLvrjSlwcF

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Qatar (@MofaQatar_EN) September 11, 2025

A prime reason the Saudis have yet to normalize with Israel is precisely on fears it could enrage the society at large as well as the powerful clerical establishment that oversees the kingdom's Sharia courts and other institutions. This could destabilize the kingdom, especially if the monarchy rushes to embrace Israel under Netanyahu.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 14:05

Turkey In Netanyahu's Crosshairs For Harboring Hamas, After Qatar Strike

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defended a recent airstrike on what Israel says was a Hamas headquarters in Doha, comparing the October 7 attacks to the September 11 terror attacks in the United States. The speech was given in the middle of this week, just before the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, warning that Hamas leaders will be hunted down wherever they are located, and putting countries like Qatar and even Turkey on notice.

Turkey has long expressed support to Hamas leadership. Though Netanyahu did not directly name Turkey, observers interpreted his remarks as a veiled threat to Ankara, which has long hosted senior Hamas officials.

Via AFP

Calling October 7 "our 9/11," Netanyahu warned that any country offering safe haven to "Islamist terrorists" could become targets of Israeli intelligence operations. He urged governments to expel or prosecute such individuals, or potentially face the wrath of unilateral Israeli action.

He laid out: "Well, yesterday, we acted in the same manner. We pursued the masterminds of terror who perpetrated the massacre of October 7. And we did this. In Qatar, which provides a safe haven, harbors terrorists, funds Hamas, gives its terrorist leaders luxurious villas, and provides them with everything."

Netanyahu continued: "We did exactly what America did when it pursued Al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan, and after they went and killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan."

He added: "Now, various countries around the world condemn Israel. They should be ashamed of themselves. What did they do after America eliminated Osama bin Laden? Did they say: What a terrible thing happened in Afghanistan or Pakistan? No, they applauded. They should commend Israel for adhering to the same principles and applying them."

The prime minister invoked a UN Security Council resolution that called on governments to deny safe haven to terrorists, arguing that Israel is acting on the same principles. 

In recent weeks, Netanyahu stunned the region by recognizing the Armenian genocide of 1915 in an interview in an unprecedented first for the Israeli government.

The Erdogan government seems this as a calculated provocation aimed at embarrassing Turkey, as Turks have long considered this issue a red line. Within Turkey, individuals can be thrown in jail if they publicly advocate for Armenian genocide recognition, especially journalists.

NEW: Israel considered attacking Hamas' top leadership in Turkey, Egyptians told the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, but changed mind because of Ankara’s Nato membership and political and economic costs.

Netanyahu thought Trump could handle Qatar consequences

— Kann

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) September 11, 2025

Interestingly, just on Thursday Israel's Haaretz newspaper wrote that Turkey Could Be Next in Israel's Cross-hairs After Qatar in a headline.

"The Shin Bet security service announced last week that it thwarted a Turkey-based Hamas cell's plot to assassinate National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ankara quickly denied involvement," the newspaper said. "But the revelation raised an explosive question: Could Turkey have a hand in helping Hamas assassinate an Israeli minister?"

Any Israeli operation on Turkish soil akin to the Qatari one would be viewed by Ankara as an act of war. Turkey has vigorously denounced Israel for its Doha strike, after long condemning Israel for its actions in Gaza.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 12:40

Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned “Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing.” wherein we stated:

“Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come first in the cycle, attention to employment data, particularly full-time employment, is crucial to determining economic risk. The risk of a recession remains very low; however, that can change if something causes consumption to contract quickly. Aside from an unexpected, exogenous impact, investors should expect economic growth to continue to slowly weaken to a longer-term trend slightly less than 2% annually. Unfortunately, while not recessionary, that growth rate will make it hard for corporate profitability to remain at record levels.”

The August 2025 employment report further confirmed the deceleration in job growth. Nonfarm payrolls added just 22,000 positions. Economists had expected over 75,000. June’s numbers were revised downward to a net loss of 13,000 jobs, the first monthly decline since 2020. July gained only a minor upward revision. However, what is most important is the “trend” of the data rather than just a one-month data point. As shown, the 3-month average of employment is deteriorating sharply, which has only occurred previously just before the onset of a recession.

While the labor force participation rate was 62.3 percent, still well below pre-COVID levels, the percentage of total full-time employees continues to drop sharply. That data point is essential because full-time employment is required to sustain economic growth. With that level well below pre-COVID levels, it is unsurprising that economic growth rates are slowing.

It isn’t just slower economic growth that the latest employment report suggests. Yes, growth is slowing because jobs are shrinking, and as a consequence, households are spending less. As we showed in a recent #BullBearReport, economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower, given that employment, particularly full-time employment, supports economic supply and demand.

This data also confirms why the Fed is already behind the curve in cutting interest rates.

Why the Fed Is Likely Behind the Curve

Despite the slowdown, the Federal Reserve remains hesitant. Chair Powell noted softening labor conditions at Jackson Hole and suggested the door is open to rate cuts. But no concrete shift in policy has occurred. The Fed insists on being data-dependent while ignoring the most immediate data: labor markets are deteriorating. Inflation is not, and has not been a threat, and the two-year Treasury yield, a close approximation of what the Fed funds rate should be, is already more than 80-bps lower than the Fed’s current policy rate.

The latest Beige Book also revealed soft hiring trends and growing caution among employers, with businesses pulling job postings and limiting expansion. That’s not a labor supply issue; it’s a demand issue. The Fed’s ongoing focus on lagging inflation data means that policies remain too tight and are now well “behind the curve.”

Markets aren’t waiting. Fed futures now imply near certainty of a September rate cut, with some traders pricing in 50 basis points. While many remain concerned about the risk of inflation, bond yields are already warning that the economic data is more disinflationary than not. As we have discussed before, despite all the “fear mongers” warning of surging interest rates, the reality is that interest rates on the long-end will track the economy. As we discussed in Grant: Rates Are Going Much Higher?”

“…let’s create a composite index of wages (which provides consumer purchasing power, aka demand), economic growth (the result of production and consumption), and inflation (the byproduct of increased demand from rising economic activity). We then compare that composite index to interest rates. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation between economic activity, inflation, and interest rates as rates respond to the drivers of inflation.”

We further discussed that relationship in “Tudor Jones: I Won’t Own Bonds.”

“The previous surge in inflation, and ultimately interest rates, was not a function of organic economic growth. It was a stimulus-driven surge in the supply/demand equation following the pandemic-driven shutdown. As those monetary and fiscal inflows reverse, that support will fade. In the future, we must understand the factors that drive rates over time: economic growth, wages, and inflation.”

With the economy and its primary driver, employment, slowing, the Fed’s delay in cutting rates increases the risk of a more substantial economic downturn. By maintaining rates at an elevated level, the negative impact on consumption (demand) is increasing. The Fed’s tightening has already filtered into credit, housing, and business spending. The labor market is reacting, and further policy lags will likely make the next easing cycle less effective.

The risk is that the central bank may be easing into a downturn it failed to prevent.

Implications for Corporate Earnings and Profit Margins

For investors, the most significant consequence is a slowdown in corporate earnings. A corporate earnings slowdown is already underway. Revenue growth is faltering, and companies, particularly in the retail and fast dining sectors, are seeing less pricing power as consumer demand slips. Eventually, those forces will compress profit margins. As we noted with respect to Q2 earnings:

“While technology and AI-driven firms have recently become bright spots, their strength cannot offset broader corporate margin pressures. In Q2, S&P 500 earnings grew 6.4%, with 80 percent of companies beating estimates. But this masks a weakening breadth of growth, where earnings beats are concentrated in essentially just two sectors. There would have been no earnings growth without Megacap Technology and major Wall Street banks.”

While many firms relied on price hikes, labor efficiency, and cost-cutting to drive earnings growth this year, that playbook is limited in scope and becoming less effective. While Tech and AI-linked companies like Broadcom have offered bright spots, the rest of the market is under pressure. Discretionary sectors, cyclical industrials, and small-cap firms are more exposed to demand shocks and slowing economic growth. While investors are currently ignoring the linkages between economic demand and corporate earnings, as margins erode, the impact on earnings will become more significant.

Currently, analyst estimates still assume robust earnings growth into 2026. However, that will change in the months ahead. As those earnings estimates are revised lower, the risk to the market, and currently very optimistic investors, is the question of valuations. As the corporate earnings slowdown accelerates, forward guidance will get cut, and paying significantly high multiples for earnings will be questioned. If companies revise down expectations, delay investments, and increase layoffs to protect bottom lines, the risk to markets will increase significantly.

Navigating The Risks

The evidence points to a slowing US economy. Growth is weakening, inflation remains elevated, corporate margins face pressure, and interest rate cuts are likely. These conditions require a shift in investment strategy. Investors must adapt to preserve capital, generate income, and manage risk. Positioning should emphasize resilience, quality, and income stability. The goal is to reduce exposure to volatile sectors and concentrate on assets that perform well during economic slowdowns.

Here are key actions investors should consider:

• Reduce exposure to cyclical stocks: Cut back on discretionary sectors like retail, travel, and consumer electronics that rely heavily on strong economic growth.

• Increase allocation to defensive sectors: Focus on consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities. These sectors provide stable earnings even in weak environments.

• Favor companies with strong pricing power: These firms can better maintain margins despite rising input costs.

• Prioritize strong balance sheets: Low debt and high cash reserves reduce financial stress and support consistent returns.

• Add high-quality dividend payers: Look for companies with a track record of stable or growing dividends. These provide income support as capital gains slow.

• Increase fixed income exposure: Short-duration bonds and high-grade corporates may benefit from falling interest rates.

• Consider yield curve positioning: A steeper yield curve from rate cuts may create an opportunity in intermediate bonds.

• Avoid speculative growth stocks. These firms rely on future earnings and cheap financing, both of which will be under pressure in a slowing economy.

A decelerating US economy changes the return profile across asset classes. Adjusting now to focus on quality, cash flow, and defensive positioning can improve downside protection and set the stage for more stable portfolio returns.

While there are no guarantees, the current gap between what Wall Street expects and what the economy can deliver is very different. Could the economy catch up to meet Wall Street’s expectations? Sure. It just usually doesn’t happen that way.

Most importantly, the Fed is late once again, and history suggests the impact on stocks will be negative.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 12:20

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025

A brief excerpt:

On Wednesday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly year-to-date compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

As I noted last week, the house price trend suggests house prices will be down year-over-year by the end of 2025. However, there are two new powerful forces pushing in opposite directions - mortgage rates have declined, and unemployment is increasing. Both could impact sales and house prices.

Earlier this week, Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp (formerly CoreLogic) wrote: “July’s decline in home prices is atypical — the last two periods where we saw monthly declines in July was in 2022 and during 2006-2008 period …” In 2022, house prices fell briefly as mortgage rates surged higher, and inventory increased sharply. And the 2006-2008 period was the start of the housing bust.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.9% year-over-year (YoY) in June and will likely be lower year-over-year in the July report compared to June (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 3.9%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.7%, in May up 2.3% and in June up 1.9%.

And the June Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in April, May and June. April closing prices include some contracts signed in February.

So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

Vax Stocks Tumble As Trump Admin To Link COVID Shots To Child Deaths

Shares in vaccine stocks were sharply lower on Friday after a report that the Trump administration is set to announce the deaths of 25 children linked to COVID-19 vaccines, according to the Washington Post.

The findings are based on VAERS, a federal database that tracks vaccine injuries operated by the CDC. 

Trump health officials plan to include the pediatric deaths claim in a presentation next week to an influential panel of advisers to the CDC that is considering new coronavirus vaccine recommendations, which affect access to the shots and whether they’re free.

As a result shares in Pfizer, BionNTech, and Moderna spiked sharply lower in Friday trade:

Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 11:56

Iron Ore Price Volatility Now At 2008 Low 

Singapore iron ore futures closed the week near six-month highs, supported by signs of revived Chinese demand driving peak-season restocking, alongside other factors such as steel mills curbing supply and expectations for a 25-bps interest rate cut in the U.S. next week. 

Earlier in the week, UBS analyst Catherine Gordon told clients, "I would flag that the team has seen strong demand for the UBS Gold Miners Basket {UBXXGOLD} amid the frenzy. Iron Ore remains the least discussed with investors on the sidelines."

Has the iron ore market been long lost and forgotten by Wall Street desks, with prices stuck around $100 a ton for more than a year?

Possibly. UBS analyst Myles Allsop noted that iron ore volatility has collapsed to its lowest level in 15 years. With no trend to follow and prices compressed around the $100 handle, iron ore has become one of the least discussed commodities among UBS clients - well, for now.

Allsop provided more color about this collapse in volatility:

Iron ore prices: why is volatility at the lowest level in >15yrs?

The volatility in the iron ore price is at its lowest level since the industry moved to spot pricing in 2008/09, with prices trading in a tight range since mid-2024 (average ~$100/t with a low of $90/t & a high of $110/t). In our opinion, one of the key drivers of this stability is a change in buying behaviour in China, supported by widespread uncertainty & balanced market fundamentals. The Chinese govt established China Minerals Resources Group (CMRG) in Jul-22 with an aim to stabilise the iron ore market through centralised demand, price negotiations, and strategic inventory mgmt. CMRG now represents >50% of China's steelmakers in negotiations with global suppliers, fundamentally changing the negotiating leverage from miners to Chinese steel mills and altering the iron ore market dynamics; it has also dampened speculative activity in the market by building substantial strategic inventory holdings. Looking forward, we expect lower price volatility to become the new normal, which helps steelmakers through improved cost forecasting but reduces trading opportunities for financial participants; we expect supply-demand fundamentals to continue to drive broader market price trends though the concentrated buying power of CMRG is likely to compress margins.

Iron ore prices holding up with supply/ demand balanced & inventories stable

Iron ore prices have shuffled up to ~$105/t last week with activity rebounding after the military parade and on improving sentiment (due to the China Work Plan & Fed rate cut expectations). On the key signals we note: 1) Iron ore inventories at ports (Fig24) and at mills (Fig26) in China are broadly stable w/w; 2) Iron ore shipments from traditional markets (Fig2) continue to recover with Brazil +3% YTD (> Access Dataset); 3) Steel production in China accelerated in early-Aug in the CISA data (Fig10), though MySteel utilisation rate data remains broadly flat (Fig14); 4) Steel exports from China remain strong at ~106Mtpa in Aug despite increasing trade restrictions (Fig19) - Baosteel expects China steel exports to remain >100Mt in 2025, albeit softer in 4Q; 5) Positioning on the Dalian has turned incrementally more negative and is now at -2Mt of net contracts (Fig37). We have Neutral ratings on Vale, RIO & BHP, and Sell on FMG & KIO; we est. spot 2026 FCF yield of BHP at 4%, RIO at 8%, Vale at 15% (interactive model).

Separately, Goldman analyst James McGeoch added more color about why prices of the steelmaking ingredient have soared in recent weeks to six-month highs:

"Your coming into the pre-golden week restock (Golden week October 1), the onshore feedback is positive, August imports at 105mt is impressive. The range $100-105 is still where the traders see it, consumer buying at $100, and producer hedging at $105. Of note the story Friday on the CMRG (China group) selling to calm prices down, they are not going away... "

Chart 

The longer the compression, the larger the eventual move in iron ore markets. The big question is what could trigger a breakout to the upside: China stimulus, U.S. rate cuts, or Beijing pressuring mills to curb production?

Full chart pack available exclusively for ZeroHedge Pro Subs here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 11:40

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking is up a tenth to 1.7% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 3.2%. Here are the details to our tracking changes. [September 12th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Our Q3 GDP forecast stands at +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [September 10th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.1 percent on September 10, up from 3.0 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.1 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.2 percent, were partly offset by a decline in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to GDP growth from 0.28 percentage points to 0.23 percentage points. [September 10th estimate]

Trump Downplays Drone Incursion Into Poland As Likely 'Mistake', Angering NATO Allies

In a bit of a surprise twist given all the hype and dangerous escalation this week which saw Poland and NATO scramble jets, President Donald Trump has downplayed Poland's accusation that Russian drones intentionally invated its airspace this week.

Trump in addressing the dangerous incident to reporters Thursday suggested it "could have been a mistake". Prime Minister Donald Tusk, citing the NATO eastern flank country's military said that in the early hours of Wednesday, three Russian drones were shot down - among a total of 19 which crossed into Polish airspace.

Crashed drone remnants in Poland, via AP

When asked about these claims, Trump responded that it "could have been a mistake… But regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But hopefully it’s going to come to an end."

Warsaw and NATO officials condemned the "act of aggression" which they along with Ukrainian officials asserted was an intentional provocation. Tusk said it was an "unprecedented" incursion into the sovereign territory of a NATO member.

Despite Trump now surprising allies by downplaying it, Warsaw and Kiev are getting the intended effect, given BBC is reporting the additional build-up of allied defenses in Eastern Europe:

In response to the drone incursion, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic said they would send defenses to Poland, while Lithuania would receive a German brigade and greater warning of Russian attacks on Ukraine that could cross over.

Germany also said it would "intensify its engagement along Nato's eastern border" and extend and expand air policing over Poland.

Later France's Emmanuel Macron announced the country would send three Rafale fighter jets to help protect Poland's airspace. "We will not yield to Russia's growing intimidation," Macron said.

Trump continued downplaying the incident in a Friday morning FOX appearance, saying of the drones "they were actually knocked down and they fell"...

Fox: What are you gonna do about Putin? Because we just saw these drones in Poland.

Trump: I'm not gonna defend anybody but they were actually knocked down and they fell. But you should not be close to Poland anyway.pic.twitter.com/jJe7Cbc0p7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 12, 2025

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has pointed out that the drones flew from Ukraine into Poland, and there have been prior such episodes - suggesting mistaken identity or else a Ukrainian false flag. Russia has essentially denying it had anything to do with the drones - but Poland says it has recovered many from the ground - one of which crashed on a house. They appear to have been what are widely described as 'decoy' drones and not attack or suicide UAVs.

Poland is not happy with Trump's ambiguous response, with officials rejecting his explanation:

Poland's most senior officials on Friday dismissed President Trump's suggestion that a major Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace could have been a mistake by Vladimir Putin's military.

"We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it," Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a message posted on social media. Polish authorities said they had recovered parts of 17 Russian-made drones, which fell without causing any injuries or major damage in the east of the country on Wednesday.

Trump appears to favour de-escalation following Russian drones allegedly entering Poland's airspace pic.twitter.com/LOafBQx9YE

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) September 12, 2025

Russia's Defense Ministry said Wednesday that the range of its UAVs typically deployed do not exceed 700 km - suggesting that such a breach was not possible based on the distance. The MoD said it is open to holding direct consultations with the Polish government to resolve the matter. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 11:00

US Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since May As Inflation Expectations Calc Completely Broken

US consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row in the just released preliminary September data, down from 58.2 to 55.4, far below the median estimates of 58.0 (in fact it was below all estimates), with both Current Conditions (61.0, Last 61.7) and Expectations (51.8, Last 55.9) declining.

“Consumers’ expected probability of personal job loss grew sharply this year and ticked up in September as well,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement, “suggesting that consumers are indeed concerned that they may be personally affected by any negative developments in labor markets.”

“Moreover, consumers also feel squeezed by the persistence of high prices,” she added.

Curiously Republicans and Independents saw their optimism (i.e. expectations) slide fractionally - while Democrats oddly rose - although while it narrowed modestly, the spread between Dems and Reps remains near a record high.

After plunging back to reality for two months, inflation expectations resumed their ascent especially on the longer-end horizon: year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.8% after jumping in July from 4.5%, while long-run (5-10) inflation unexpectedly jumped from 3.5% in August to 3.9%, higher than the expected decline to 3.4% and the highest since June.

What is bizarre here, is that once again the Marxist UMich professors grabbed at straws to paint as bleak a picture as possible, and while both Republican and Independent 5Yr inflation expectations dropped substantially, and Democrats rose by the smallest possible 0.1%, the average somehow magically surged by 0.4% to 3.9%!!

It gets better... and by better we mean dumber: 1 Year inflation expectations dropped across every single party: Dems down 0.5%; Republicans down 0.1%, Independent down 0.4%, and yet the average was... unchanged!

So how did this inflation expectation rise or stay flat? Non-voters? Illegals?

Or maybe it's time to finally start ignoring this indicator or at least call it TDS: Trump Derangement Sentiment. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 10:23