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A Very Important Week For Consumer Stocks 

Goldman's top sector specialist, Scott Feiler, offers four thoughts on the consumer ahead of what he calls a "very important week" for the space.

Feiler said that consumer stocks finally showed signs of life last week, helped by a few solid earnings beats, but the improvement was mostly based on market rotation as AI names dumped for three consecutive days.

He said the next round of consumer earnings, from now till Thanksgiving, should look better than the first leg of the earnings season. 

Positioning in discretionary sits at 7-year lows, he noted, adding that many traders are reluctant to pre-trade a 2026 "consumer rebound" given that the group still trades in the shadow of daily AI moves and a labor market that feels soft. 

Here's what Feiler is telling clients about consumer stocks before the week kicks off:

1. Consumer Refresh – The consumer group finally acted a little better last week. Why? It helped that the limited consumer EPS reports we got were good and were finally rewarded, as opposed to faded (ONON, REAL, DDS). We should get a run of good results this week and next from a bunch of the bellwethers. It won't be unanimous, but earnings between now and Thanksgiving should feel much better than the 1st part of the consumer earnings season.

While the better EPS results helped last week, the improved price action really just felt primarily the result of market factors.   The sector outperformed the market 3 days in a row (Tuesday to Thursday). Those 3 days just so happened to be the 3 days of the substantial AI underperformance.

2. What Next for Consumer? Hope, but Without Conviction:

It does feel like we can see some better price action in consumer until year-end. It does not feel like it can happen in a straight line though. We highlighted gross exposure last week in discretionary is at 7 year lows (GS PB) and there is still optimism about the tax refund/stimulus trade in 1H26.

3. Bellwether Week Ahead – Better Results Finally?:

• Glass Half Full Week?: Some of the biggest consumer companies in the world report this week.  It will not be perfect but would expect this week of earnings to be better than the last few in Consumer.

• WMT - No Change?: Given some of the recent concerns on the US consumer, there are few more important things this week than WMT. A beat and raise is expected. It is worth noting that our analyst, Kate McShane, spoke with the management 3x during September and October. Their message was always that they had seen no change to the US Consumer, despite industry concerns. COST did release October results a couple weeks after our last conversation with WMT and COST noted some slowdown at the end of October. Bottom-line, expectations are for WMT's actual results to be quite good still, but there will be a focus as to whether they saw the late October and early November slowing that others alluded to.

• Others That Should Beat: There will be plenty of other really important ones also. Beats are expected are TJX, WSM, ROST & GAP. Then next week, beats are expected from BBY, BURL, DKS, URBN & others.

• Home Improvement – Price Action is a Must Watch: Sentiment has cooled here very recently. Small top-line downside is expected from both HD and LOW and consensus numbers in 2026 have been moving lower. Despite some expected squishiness here, there does still seem to be investors optimism that pockets of housing are ownable into 2026 (HD especially). That is why price action will be just as telling as actual results, given few names in consumer have traded well on squishy results so far.   Our view is the price action out of HD and LOW feels like it will be more important than the actual results, absent a shock out of numbers (other than tiny top-line downside).

4. De-grossing Activity Slowed & Consumer Was Slightly Better to Buy: In last weekend's note, we highlighted how gross exposure to consumer discretionary on our PB book hit 7 year lows. This past week, the PB noted single stocks saw their largest gross trading activity in over 4 years, and Consumer Discretionary and Staples both participated in that, and were both better to buy. That's a change vs the recent trend.

The total PB book saw long buys outpacing short sales (3.4 to 1). Consumer was not alone in higher trading activity, as all sectors saw increased gross trading flow, led in $ terms by Info Tech (short sales > long buys), Industrials (long buys > short sales), Health Care (long buys > short sales).  Consumer Disc (long buys > short sales), and Staples (long buys > short sales) were close behind though.

Investor positioning within the consumer stocks that Feiler's desk tracks.

Related:

• A Tale Of Two Consumer Worlds - Captured In A Single Chart

• Consumers Ditch Restaurants For Groceries As Budgets Break

• Early Warning Indicator Signals Sharp Sentiment Deterioration Among Low-Income Consumers, Gen Z

• "Worst Consumer Sentiment In Decades": Goldman Goes Defcon 1 On Imploding US Consumer

• Abrupt Sentiment Shift Rocks Gen Z: Restaurants Warn Of Spending Drop As Student Loan "Default Cliff" Arrives

With low-income consumers certaintly pressured, the Trump administration has launched:

• "Surgical & Beautiful": Trump Boasts Operation Affordability Ahead Of Midterm Cycle

All eyes are on low-tier consumers. Their sentiments matter. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 09:15

US Home Builders Offer 'Elevated' Incentives Amid Affordability Challenges

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Faced with affordability constraints and cautious demand, and with abundant land in states such as Arizona, Utah, Texas, and Florida, many developers are offering enticing incentives to potential homebuyers.

A model of a new single-family home at The Ridge at Stone Butte in Phoenix, Arizona. Courtesy of RE/MAX Signature in Phoenix

A recent Redfin report indicates that builders are offering mortgage-rate buydowns, assistance with closing costs, and upgraded home amenities to attract buyers. In areas where supply exceeds demand, the report found builders offering up to $10,000 in closing costs, as well as top-of-the-line appliances or home finishes.

“New homes still make up a significantly higher portion of the single-family supply than before the pandemic,” the report states. As demand escalated during the COVID-19 pandemic, new home construction increased to approximately 35 percent in 2022, up from 20 percent in 2019.

While new construction has slowed to 27 percent in August, some markets are still experiencing a glut of leftover new homes on the market. As a result, the report indicates, builders may be cautious about starting new projects as they attempt to sell off existing inventory.

In its October report, the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index (HMI) found that 38 percent of builders were reducing prices by as much as 6 percent, while 65 percent indicated they were offering sales incentives to prospective buyers.

Still, the NAHB noted that builder confidence for newly-constructed single-family homes was 37 in October—up by five points from September and the highest reading since April.

D.R. Horton, one of the country’s largest homebuilders, recently reported that its homebuilding revenue for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 decreased by 7 percent to $31.5 billion, with homes closed dropping by 5 percent to 84,863.

In an Oct. 28 statement, the Arlington, Texas-based company indicated it had 29,600 homes in inventory, of which 19,600 were unsold as of the end of September.

David Auld, D.R. Horton’s executive chairman, said that affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment are still impacting new-home demand.

A newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Willis, Texas, is listed for $535,000. Courtesy of the Houston Association of Realtors ‘Incredible Deals’

Developers in Houston, Texas, are offering “incredible deals,” Houston Association of Realtors Vice Chair Kat Robinson told The Epoch Times.

“Some of them have mortgage interest rates as low as 3.99 percent—that’s unbelievable,” she said.

“So now buyers have the choice of paying around 6 percent for a resale where they may have to make some repairs, or just drive an extra 15 minutes to buy something new for a much lower rate.”

Other concessions include help with closing costs or upgrades to appliances or countertops.

“The incentive plans change about every month based on the number of units sold,” Robinson noted.

Sales of new single-family homes are comparable to last year, she said, and much better than in 2023. Pricing varies by development and location, but on average, a 1,800-square-foot new construction with three bedrooms and two baths is listed for $500,000.

Many developments offer a community center, pool, walking paths, other amenities, along with monthly homeowners association (HOA) fees.

Still, resale homes continue to draw prospective buyers.

“A lot of older neighborhoods have full-grown trees that canopy the streets and create a charming experience,” Robinson said. “A lot of people do prefer resale homes because they want trees.”

According to Robinson, the greater Houston area has more listings than ever, and buyers now have many choices and more negotiation power.

Some Areas See Higher Sales

Christy Walker, president of the Phoenix Realtors, told The Epoch Times that nearly 10 percent of the 19,200 active home listings in the greater Phoenix area are new builds, and she has seen developers offering buyer incentives.

Some of the incentives include lower interest rates of 4.5 percent on conventional loans and 4.25 percent on Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans, according to Walker. Other incentives include assistance with closing costs or home upgrades, such as appliances or finishes.

Meanwhile, Walker has witnessed higher sales for new construction in the area.

“We have a new build that we’re selling, and appointments to see models on the new construction site were scooped up within the first hour,” she said.

“We now have over 600 on a waiting list to see them.”

Located in North Phoenix, The Ridge at Stone Butte offers single-family homes ranging from 1,600 to 4,000 square feet, featuring gourmet kitchens, spa-like bathrooms, walk-in closets, and panoramic views of the desert.

Walker noted that new construction for a 1,800-square-foot, single-family home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms typically lists in the mid-$600,000s.

“With the median sales price of about $550,000 for a similar resale home, a lot of potential homeowners are opting for a brand new home—one where they can actually save on mortgage interest costs,” she said.

Because Phoenix and its outlying regions have abundant available land, the area has traditionally been a popular place for new home development.

“We have a lot of out-of-state buyers looking for more affordable options, as well as some local move-up and first-time buyers,” Walker noted.

New Construction in 2026

In its Emerging Real Estate Trends for 2026 report, PCW and the Urban Land Institute forecast that builders are looking to the future with cautious optimism. While new homes and resale inventory are increasing, some builders are shifting to single-family rental partnerships and slowing down on major land purchases.

“Affordability remains the greatest challenge and is being addressed by constructing smaller, lower-spec homes, as most buyers are willing to sacrifice size and finishes for price relief,” the report states.

The report suggests one method builders could use to make homes more affordable is to build smaller ones. The average size of a new single-family home fell to 2,386 square feet in the second quarter from a peak of 2,692 square feet in 2016.

Other builders say they plan to lower the ceiling height, provide fewer windows, and add lower-finish countertops to save costs.

Some builders surveyed believe rising costs in labor and materials could be challenging over the next two years. Almost all stressed the need for collaboration with local municipalities to allow for increased density, thereby reducing housing costs and streamlining the permitting process and project approvals.

In an earlier report this year, the National Association of Realtors found that the South is experiencing some of the best deals in new home construction. It named the five markets with the largest declines in new home prices: Little Rock, Arkansas, with a 15.6 percent drop; Austin, Texas, 8.5 percent lower; Wichita, Kansas; Jacksonville and Cape Coral, Florida, all at more than 7 percent declines.

“We expect our sales incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2026, the extent to which will depend on market conditions throughout the year,” he said.

Auld said that the company has expanded its new home construction into seven new states and 38 markets.

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 09:00

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.7%), and down 5.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 14th, inventory was at 840 thousand (7-day average), compared to 842 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

My back-to-work morning plane reads:

• What If Things Are Better Than They Seem? I’ve always been a glass-is-half-full kind of person. I don’t worry too much about things outside of my control. I try not to get stuck in the gloom-and-doom vortex so many people have been sucked into since the 2008 financial crisis and the advent of social media. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• Buffett goes quiet: The Berkshiew Hathaway founder cut his workload back to an annual Thanksgiving letter — and giving away his billions… (Berkshiew Hathaway) see also Warren Buffett on luck and not beating yourself up over mistakes: “Over the years, I have made many mistakes,” he wrote. “Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be about one every five years.“ (TKer by Sam Ro)

• ‘Take Money Out of Wall Street’: The Debate Animating the Fed Chair Race Top contenders to lead the Federal Reserve under Trump are lining up around a policy that doesn’t seem Trump-like. (Politico)

• Wall Street Blows Past Bubble Worries to Supercharge AI Spending Frenzy: Firms such as Blue Owl Capital have raised trillions in investing firepower. The artificial-intelligence build-out is a perfect match, though warning signs are flashing. (Wall Street Journal)

• Concierge Medicine Is Booming. Should You Join the VIP Club? The membership clubs charge annual fees for access to doctors, extra testing, and perks like an Oura ring. Are they worth the cost? (Barron’s)

• Why car insurance costs have soared (and what drivers are doing about it): On average, premiums are up 55% since February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Almost all of that increase came between 2022 and 2024. (NPR) see also Trump’s Hatred of EVs Is Making Gas Cars More Expensive: Trump’s anti-climate agenda is making it more expensive to own a car, period. (Wired)

• Major US broadcasters sit out Cop30 climate talks: ‘They’re missing a lot’ Figures show none of US ‘big four’ – CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox – appear to have sent teams to cover summit in Belém. (The Guardian)

• Epstein’s Library: The disgraced financier’s  emails reveal the unusual collection of books he bought prior to his arrest on sex-trafficking charges in 2019. From Trump to power and sex, the titles offer an unusual insight into his interests and mindset. (Bloomberg) free 

• Has the Watch World Found Its Anthony Bourdain? A new show called Man of the Hour gives the watch world—and its most exciting independent makers—a long overdue close-up. (GQ)

• How American and Chinese Drone Arsenals Stack Up: A head-to-head comparison of unmanned aircraft shows the global rivals in a close race. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bankim “Binky” Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation at Deutsche Bank Securities, a role he has held since 2004.

 

The late 1990’s also produced ebullient sentiment, as one would expect during a bubble. I would characterize today’s sentiment backdrop as “enthusiastic” but not much more than that.

Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments

 

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Loomered: Trump Withdraws Nominee For Top IRS Lawyer

President Donald Trump on Friday withdrew the nomination of veteran tax attorney Donald L. Korb to serve as the top lawyer for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), right as the Senate was preparing to vote on his nomination for assistant general counsel - which provides legal advice and support to departmental officials, including how the government interprets tax codes and defends their positions in US Tax Court.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in Washington on March 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

While Trump gave no explanation for the move - writing only on Truth social "Please be advised that I am withdrawing the nomination of Donald Korb to be Assistant General Counsel in the Department of the Treasury," it comes after activist and Trump ally Laura Loomer alleged "major red flags" that disqualify him.

As the Epoch Times notes, days before Trump pulled Korb’s nomination, the veteran tax attorney came under fire by right-wing activist and Trump ally Laura Loomer, who alleged he had “several major red flags that disqualify him from assuming his role under the Trump administration.” In a post on social media, Loomer said Korb had too much past association with Democrats.

After the president withdrew Korb’s nomination, Loomer took credit in a post on X.

JUST IN:

President Trump just released the following statement.

“Please be advised that I am withdrawing the nomination of Donald Korb to be Assistant General Counsel in the Department of the Treasury. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”#LOOMERED https://t.co/euYqg6aUKu pic.twitter.com/JlYHTNP60g

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) November 14, 2025

Korb did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

The president has pulled multiple nominees in recent months as he continues to fill critical positions in his second administration.

On Sept. 19, Trump withdrew the nomination of Erik Siebert to serve as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia. Siebert had been leading the probe into New York Attorney General Letitia James’s mortgage fraud case, but his office did not find “incriminating evidence” to bring charges, according to a joint statement by Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.).

The following day, Trump said he had appointed his former attorney, Lindsey Halligan, to serve in the role as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia.

The White House announced on Sept. 30 that it had withdrawn economist EJ Antoni’s nomination to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Dr. EJ Antoni is a brilliant economist and an American patriot that will continue to do good work on behalf of our great country,” a White House official said. “President Trump is committed to fixing the longstanding failures at the BLS that have undermined the public’s trust in critical economic data.”

Aldgra Fredly and Andrew Moran contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 19:15

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 16, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.7, down from 10.7.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.09 per barrel and Brent at $64.39 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $67, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.06 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.03 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.

Japan Summons Chinese Ambassador Over Online Threats Against Prime Minister

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Japan has demanded action from Beijing over violent threats made by a Chinese envoy against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as the Chinese regime ramps up pressure and threats against Tokyo.

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers a question during a session of the House of Councillors Budget Committee at the National Diet in Tokyo on Nov. 12, 2025. Kazuhiro NOGI/AFP via Getty Images

Japan’s foreign ministry said on Nov. 14 that it summoned China’s ambassador to lodge strong protests regarding the “highly inappropriate” statements by Consul General Xue Jian of the Chinese Consulate General in Osaka, the largest metropolis in western Japan.

On Nov. 8, Xue shared a local media report about Takaichi’s claim that a Taiwan conflict involving the use of force would likely constitute “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan, a classification that could compel Tokyo to mobilize its military to intervene.

“The dirty neck that sticks itself in must be cut off,” Xue wrote in Japanese in a now-deleted post on X, according to a screenshot shared by U.S. Ambassador to Japan George Glass.

In a subsequent post, the Chinese diplomat said viewing an attack on Taiwan as a threat to Tokyo is “a path of death” that some “stupid politicians in Japan would choose.”

Xue’s comments have triggered a formal protest from Tokyo. Lawmakers from the ruling and opposition parties have urged the government to expel the Chinese diplomat. On Nov. 14, the Osaka city council adopted a resolution demanding a formal apology from the Chinese authorities.

In Beijing, the communist regime has dialed up pressure on Takaichi, demanding a retraction of her Taiwan statement, which they claimed soured bilateral relations.

On Nov. 13, the regime’s vice foreign minister, Sun Weidong, called in the Japanese ambassador in China, voicing Beijing’s “strong dissatisfaction and opposition” to Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, the regime’s ministry said on Nov. 14.

The Chinese regime has cautioned Chinese citizens against traveling to Japan. In a notice issued late on Nov. 14, the regime’s foreign ministry and its embassy in Japan claimed that the Japanese leader’s recent remarks on Taiwan “severely damaged” the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges and posed “significant risks” to the safety and security of its nationals.

Hours later, the three largest airlines in mainland China—Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern—said in separate notices that they will offer full refunds for flights to Japan from Nov. 15 to Dec. 31.

A member of security stands guard at the Japanese embassy in Beijing on Nov. 14, 2025. -/AFP via Getty Images

Takaichi defended her position on Nov. 10, saying that her initial remarks were based on the assumption of a “worst case” scenario.

“It is in line with conventional government views,” she told a parliament committee, adding that she would not retract her statements but would avoid making similar remarks in future sessions.

Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also rejected Beijing’s interpretation of Takaichi’s words, telling reporters several times this week that its official stance on Taiwan remains unchanged.

Despite the Japanese government’s clarification, China’s state media has unleashed a barrage of editorials and articles this week lambasting the Japanese prime minister for “crossing the line” with Beijing.

The latest commentary by People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) flagship newspaper, published on Nov. 14, accused Takaichi of threatening China with military intentions over the Taiwan issue.

Taiwan

At a press conference on Nov. 14, China’s defense ministry accused Japan of meddling in its internal affairs, saying that if Tokyo tries to use forces to intervene in Taiwan, it would face a “crushing defeat” and “pay a heavy price.”

The CCP has never ruled Taiwan before but  views the self-ruled democracy as part of its territory to be taken by force if necessary. Taiwan rejects such claims, with its president saying that the future of Taiwan can only be decided by its 230 million people.

To pressure Taiwan to accept communist rule, the regime has been flying warplanes near the island on a nearly daily basis and carrying out large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, heightening international concerns about a potential Chinese invasion.

Japan, with its westernmost island of Yonaguni just 110 km (68 miles) from Taiwan, is anxious that any conflict in the Taiwan Strait could spill over into its own territory. Japan also hosts more than 50,000 American troops along with advanced U.S. military aircraft.

A Japan Coast Guard vessel patrolling the waters off Yonaguni Island, Japan, on Aug. 18, 2022. Philip Fong/ AFP via Getty Images

“The peace and stability of [the] Taiwan Strait is important not only for the security of Japan but for the stability of the global community,” Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi told a regular press conference via interpreter on Nov. 14.

“We truly hope that the issues regarding Taiwan will be peacefully resolved through dialogue,” he said. “And this has been the consistent and unchanging position of the government of Japan.”

On Nov. 15, the Chinese regime’s Maritime Safety Administration said a three-day live-fire drill would be held in parts of the central Yellow Sea, starting from Nov. 17.

Pointing to Beijing’s military exercises and travel bans against Japan, Taiwan’s president’s office on Nov. 15 expressed concerns about regional stability.

“The Chinese authorities’ politically motivated, multifaceted threats against Japan pose a grave danger to security and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” said Karen Kuo, spokesperson for the Presidential Office, according to Taiwan’s official Central News Agency.

Taiwan called on the CCP to cease such “inappropriate unilateral actions immediately” and refrain from becoming a “troublemaker in the international community,” Kuo said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 18:40

Corporate Bankruptcies On Pace For 15-Year High As More "Isolated Incidents" To Occur 

First came the spectacular implosions of subprime auto lender Tricolor and auto-parts supplier First Brands. Then came the regional-bank fiasco, prompting JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to warn that more late-cycle accidents may be ahead. Add in signs that lower-income consumers are tapped out, frothy valuations across the AI equity sphere, and even Bitcoin sliding below $100,000, and it's no surprise that many are beginning to wonder whether mounting financial stress signals the early stages of a broader downturn.

Another flashing red warning sign is new data from S&P Global this past week, showing that through October, 655 companies have filed for bankruptcy, nearly matching the 687 total for all of 2024.

S&P Global data showed that in October alone, there were 68 new corporate bankruptcies filings. In August, there were 76 filings, the highest monthly tally since at least 2020.

Industrials lead the charge with 98 filings, reflecting the group's vulnerability to snarled supply chains related to tariffs. Then, consumer discretionary firms followed with 80 bankruptcies so far this year. 

At current pace, corporate bankruptcies could reach a 15-year high by year's end. 

The Tricolor and First Brands implosions earlier this fall were certaintly a wake-up call. Regional bank woes and now lower- and middle-income consumers are exhausted, all combined, suggesting softening of the economy in the late year. The record 43-day government shutdown certainly compounded problems. 

"I view those few incidents as idiosyncratic but expect more of these 'isolated incidents' to occur, potentially in other sectors like software, which has increased leverage in that market while capital flows to AI capex," Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management of public strategies at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, told S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

Here are the notable bankruptcies this year. 

In mid-October, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon sparked some controversy in banking and finance circles with this comment: "My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more."

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, told clients days ago, "Our base case is that an equity market drawdown is avoided. Households suffer for the next two quarters."

However, Pingle noted that a $55 billion boost to disposable income in 2Q 2026 from retroactive tax relief in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will lift consumer sentiment in the early spring. Plus, all the infrastructure buildouts, reshoring, data center construction, and the list goes on and on, will likely begin to filter into the real economy early next year - all in time for midterms. 

So from now until economic tailwinds emerge, the Trump administration has launched Operation Affordability, focusing on lowering prices to lift low-income consumers and improve sentiment ahead of the midterms.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 18:05

After Tucker Carlson Exposé, FBI Director Patel Says Trump Rally Shooter Thomas Crooks Acted Alone

The same day that Tucker Carlson told America more than the FBI has about Donald Trump's attempted assassin, Thomas Crooks, FBI Director Kash Patel announced that Crooks 'acted alone' in planning and conducting the attack. 

FBI director Kash Patel (L) and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt (R) speak during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Nov. 12, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Patel posted to X on Friday: 

"Over 480 FBI employees were involved in the Thomas Crooks investigation. Employees conducted over 1,000 interviews, addressed over 2,000 public tips, analyzed data extracted from 13 seized digital devices, reviewed nearly 500,000 digital files, collected, processed, and synchronized hundreds of hours of video footage, analyzed financial activity from 10 different accounts, and examined data associated with 25 social media or online forum accounts.

The FBI’s investigation into Thomas Crooks identified and examined over 20 online accounts, data extracted from over a dozen electronic devices, examination of numerous financial accounts, and over 1,000 interviews and 2000 public tips."

While Patel was seemingly responding to Tucker's claim that the government originally said Crooks had virtually no online footprint, that's not the point. If all of what Patel says is true, why don't we know any of it? Why did it take an anonymous tip to Tucker Carlson to provide the public with Crooks' public shift from Trump supporter to Trump hater to failed assassin? The public has an interest in this and a right to know.

In late September, Carlson's team received an anonymous tip from someone who said they had gained access to some of Crooks' online accounts, which he found using 'tools commonly used by private investigators' after obtaining Crooks' phone number and gmail address from public documents. He then traced that to two encrypted foreign email accounts (bcook[at]mailfence.com and americangamer[at]gmx.com). He also had a snapchat account, a Venmo, Zelle and PayPal account among several others. 

"It turns out that Crooks was hardly an online ghost," Carlson reports. "And yet, federal investigators lied and told us there was no trace of him online."

The source was able to obtain all materials from Crooks' deactivated YouTube account - which includes his search history, watch history, and 737 public comments. 

When Carlson's team asked the FBI why they hadn't shared this information with the public, the agency replied by asking if they could verify the authenticity of the shooter's account. 

Who is Thomas Crooks? pic.twitter.com/WwjvPGGRwS

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) November 14, 2025

As the Epoch Times notes further, in the July 13, 2024, attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, Crooks fired eight shots from a rooftop, grazing Trump’s ear, killing one attendee, and wounding two others before being fatally shot by Secret Service agents. Patel’s statement aligns with earlier FBI briefings, but also provides new details on the investigation’s depth.

Little is known about Crooks, who lived in Bethel Park and was a registered Republican who donated $15 to a progressive group in 2021. Neighbors said they were shocked to learn that he was behind the assassination attempt, describing him as quiet and unassuming.

FBI officials previously revealed that Crooks searched more than 60 topics related to Trump and President Joe Biden in the month before the attack, especially as they related to rally details and explosive devices. His digital activity included encrypted overseas accounts, prompting suspicions of foreign involvement, but Patel’s social media post dismissed these concerns.

The deceased victim, Corey Comperatore, died shielding his family from gunfire, while Marine veteran David Dutch, 54, survived after being shot in the chest and liver. Another man, James Copenhaver, sustained life-altering injuries. David Dutch, 54, was also injured.

Patel’s post is the first major update on the case since he assumed leadership of the FBI, and some lawmakers and critics are demanding more information, including access to Crooks’s online posts.

In the weeks after the assassination attempt, congressional hearings criticized Secret Service protocols, resulting in the resignation of its director. A bipartisan task force is currently investigating systemic failures.

A watchdog group is suing the Secret Service and Department of Homeland Security for records regarding security lapses that allowed Crooks to climb onto the rooftop with a rifle after being seen by rallygoers and police.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 17:35

US Debt Rose By $620 Billion During The Government Shutdown

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“This package demonstrates that we can govern without surrendering to big spending or letting Democrats dictate priorities,” wrote the House Freedom Caucus in some talking points released to the media.

“We successfully stiff-armed a massive omnibus spending bill; locked in disciplined, flat spending levels; preserved President Trump’s policy priorities… and kept our leverage for the next round in January.”

People can say whatever they want, but I’m pretty sure our politicians closed the US government for a record 42 days and changed absolutely nothing. That’s quite an accomplishment. Sublime ineptitude. Congressional approval ratings supposedly declined 11pts to 15% during the period. Remarkable.

If a trader knew that 85% of his decisions were losers, he’d become the richest man on earth by simply doing the exact opposite of his instinct. I’m guessing Pelosi made good money trading the chop, but the broad equity market ended the shutdown period roughly a percent higher than where it started.

Extrapolating the recent pace of deficit spending, the Federal government accumulated another $600bln of debt during the shutdown, adding more leverage to the system, sustaining the economy, supporting asset values.

But even so, 10yr treasury yields are unchanged from where they were before the shutdown.

Crypto prices got smoked, with bitcoin down roughly 16% for no particularly good reason, even as gold rose 5%.

Liquidity trades often need momentum to sustain them, and the hot money has been chasing AI and gold.

Beijing added roughly 62 gigawatts of electrical generation capacity to China’s grid while Washington remained closed. That’s roughly the generation capacity of the entire UK, once the world’s greatest power.

80% of China’s new generation capacity is renewables, which means that once its built, it requires no coal, gas, or oil imports to power data centers. That’s quite a competitive advantage in this existential race toward AGI.

But at least we have our democracy, which we’ve been told is the worst system except for all the others.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 16:55

US Installed Nearly 26 GW Of New Generating Capacity From January To August

By Meris Lutz of UtilityDive

Summary

• The U.S. installed nearly 26 GW of new generation capacity between January and August 2025, up slightly from the approximately 23 GW installed over the same period last year, according to the most recent monthly infrastructure report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

• As it has for most of the past two years, solar continued to dominate new generation resources, accounting for 2.7 GW out of 4 GW brought online in August alone, and 19 GW — about three-quarters — of generation capacity additions this year. 

• The report also says FERC reissued a certificate for Williams Companies to construct and operate its Northeast Supply Enhancement Project. That expansion of the Transco gas pipeline from New Jersey to New York was revived following talks between President Donald Trump and Gov. Kathy Hochul in May after the Trump administration briefly froze the Empire Wind project. The White House and the developer of the wind project have told journalists the two sides reached a gas-for-wind deal, while Hochul has denied striking such a bargain.

Solar dominated capacity additions, according to FERC’s monthly report, while a controversial gas pipeline project from New Jersey to New York got a green light.

The report shows momentum for renewables continuing, despite the federal government’s emphasis on fossil fuels and nuclear. FERC lists 136 GW of “high probability additions” through August 2028, with renewables, led by solar and followed by wind, accounting for nearly 84%. Natural gas accounts for about 15% of high probability additions.

“Notwithstanding impediments created by the Trump Administration and the Republican-controlled Congress, solar and wind continue to add more generating capacity than fossil fuels and nuclear power,” the Sun Day Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong said in a statement. “And FERC foresees renewable energy’s role expanding in the next three years while the shares provided by coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear all contract.”

Large renewable projects that began operating in August include Hecate Energy’s 517-MW Outpost solar and storage project in Webb County, Texas; Gibson Solar’s 280-MW project in Gibson County, Indiana; and expansions at the Roadrunner Crossing Wind Farm in Eastland County, Texas, totaling 254 MW. 

While solar and wind made up most of the new generation added in August, a number of smaller gas generators also came online that month, totaling 888 MW. They include: Southern Indiana Gas & Electric Co’s 248-MW A.B. Brown expansion project in Posey County, Indiana; Basin Electric Power Coop’s 245-MW Pioneer Generation Station expansion in Williams County, North Dakota; and Lower Colorado River Authority’s 188-MW Maxwell Peaker Plant in Caldwell County, Texas.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 16:20

ICE & Border Patrol Begin Sweeping Deportation Raids On Criminal Illegals In Charlotte

Federal officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) carried out large-scale raids across Charlotte on Saturday as part of President Trump's push to deport criminal illegal aliens. 

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, Mecklenburg County Board Chair Mark Jerrell, and Charlotte-Mecklenburg school board member Stephanie Sneed wrote in a statement that they will "protect the rights of all people who call Charlotte and Mecklenburg County home." 

What they really mean is to protect illegal aliens at all costs. Why? Because illegals are politically valuable, both as a future voting bloc and as a demographic booster for the next Census, which directly benefits the Democratic Party, now taken over by far-left DSA-ers. 

JUST IN: Charlotte Mayor, Chair of the Board of Commissioners, and Education Board member issue a statement vowing to protect illegals amid ICE operations.

They also confirm that local police WILL NOT cooperate with ICE.

They’re prioritizing foreign criminals over American… pic.twitter.com/QpQDRKrUl6

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 16, 2025

“Americans should be able to live without fear of violent criminal illegal aliens hurting them, their families, or their neighbors,” Assistant Homeland Security Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a press statement on Saturday.

“We are surging DHS law enforcement to Charlotte to ensure Americans are safe and public safety threats are removed.”

Oh yeah baby! It's about to get real in Charlotte, NC. All you illegal aliens in Charlotte better get on that CBP Home app and start self-deporting. pic.twitter.com/2HZ0j8FjGG

— Kim "Katie" USA (@KimKatieUSA) November 15, 2025

City and county officials have criticized the enhanced federal immigration enforcement operations.

“The expected ... operations are causing unnecessary fear and uncertainty in our community as recent operations in other cities have resulted in people without criminal records being detained and violent protests being the result of unwarranted actions,” read a Saturday statement prepared by Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, Mecklenburg Board of County Commissioners Chair Mark Jerrell, and Charlotte-Mecklenberg Education Board Chair Stephanie Sneed.

Lyles, Jerrell, and Sneed went on to state that the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department doesn’t assist with federal immigration enforcement operations.

Lastly, the city and county officials called on those considering protesting to remain peaceful.

“We do not want to see violence like many witnessed in other cities. We can stand up for what we believe in without resorting to violence,” the statement reads.

Let's not forget unhinged Mayor Vi Lyles faced backlash after calling for "compassion" toward the violent madman accused of slaughtering Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on the city's light rail.

Deadly stabbing on NC train Aug. 22, 2025 (WCNC:Charlotte Area Transit System per CNN Newsource)

Meanwhile...

North Carolina: ICE has arrived to save another city from foreign criminals.
Juan Arias, who was a Colombian-born ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT and came to America as a child. He later qualified for DACA IN 2011 under Obama he is now the 1st Homosexual CITY COUNCILMAN in Charlotte, NC.… pic.twitter.com/N110k8KgHT

— hernando arce (@hernandoarce) November 15, 2025

Fun facts about the area: Approximately 58,000 illegals are living in Mecklenburg County, and an estimated 325,000 in North Carolina (data found here). 

X user Cynical Publius has three suggestions for the White House that would end the nation-killing rule Democrats and their globalist allies have imposed, a sinister rule marked not only by an open-border invasion of tens of millions of illegals designed to disenfranchise native-born voters, but also by an invisible insurrection carried out through color-revolution-style operations against Trump and 'America First' via a dark web of nonprofits... 

The Democrat Party as we know it today would cease to exist if the following three measures were implemented:

1. Nationwide voter ID with in-person, same-day voting except for true absentee situations.

2. End tax exempt status for ALL 501(c)(X)s (even religious, because if we leave that they will abuse it).

3. Continue Trump's enforcement of existing immigration laws until we have rolled back all damage done over the last ten years.

The Democrat Party as we know it today would cease to exist if the following three measures were implemented:

1. Nation-wide voter ID with in-person, same-day voting except for true absentee situations.

2. End tax exempt status for ALL 501(c)(X)s (even religious, because if… pic.twitter.com/tnxyETJh5t

— Cynical Publius (@CynicalPublius) November 9, 2025

Related:

• Chicago Mayor Asks The UN To Intervene In Trump's Deportation Efforts

The illegal-alien invasion facilitated by Democrats and their globalist allies shows no respect for borders or the rule of law. And without the rule of law, there is no country. All indications now point to a rise in deportations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 15:45

Record Numbers Of Young Women Want To Leave The US

By Benedict Vigers of Gallup,

For the second straight year, about one in five Americans say they would like to leave the U.S. and move permanently to another country if they could. This heightened desire to migrate is driven primarily by younger women.

In 2025, 40% of women aged 15 to 44 say they would move abroad permanently if they had the opportunity. The current figure is four times higher than the 10% who shared this desire in 2014, when it was generally in line with other age and gender groups.

The percentage of younger women wanting to move to another country first rose decisively in 2016, the final year of President Barack Obama's second term. That year, Gallup surveyed the U.S. in June and July, after both parties’ presumptive nominees were set for the November election, which Donald Trump went on to win. Desire to migrate continued to climb afterward, hitting 44% in President Joe Biden’s last year in office and remaining near that level in 2025. This suggests a broader shift in opinion among younger women, rather than a solely partisan one.

The sharp rise in younger women wanting to leave the U.S. has created a large gender gap between them and their male counterparts. Today’s 21-percentage-point gap between younger men (19%) and women (40%) wanting to leave the U.S. is the widest Gallup has recorded on this trend.

Since Gallup began measuring this question globally in 2007, few countries have shown gender gaps this wide in the desire to migrate. Before the U.S. in 2025, no country had recorded a gap of 20 points or more between younger men and women.

Gallup’s question asks about desire to migrate, so these findings reflect aspirations rather than intentions. Previous Gallup research shows not everyone who wants to move will move. Still, the data indicate that millions of younger American women are increasingly imagining their futures elsewhere.

While the desire to move for good is currently elevated among U.S. men as well as women under age 45, it remains relatively flat at low levels among their counterparts aged 45 and older.

What has not changed is where these younger women would like to go. Canada remains the top preferred destination for younger American women looking to leave, with 11% of those in the years since 2022 mentioning Canada as their top destination, ahead of New Zealand, Italy and Japan (all 5%).

Young Women in Other Advanced Economies Don’t Share the Desire to Move

The growing trend in younger women in the U.S. looking to leave their country is not evident in other advanced economies. Across 38 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the percentage of younger women who say they would like to migrate has held relatively steady for years, typically averaging between 20% and 30%.

For much of the late 2000s and early 2010s, younger U.S. women were less likely than their peers abroad to want to move. That changed around 2016. Since then, they have been more likely than younger women in other wealthy countries to say they would leave their homeland for good. By contrast, U.S. men aged 15 to 44 continue to be less likely than average to want to migrate compared with their peers in the OECD.

Politics Plays a Role Alongside Age and Gender

Rising interest in leaving the U.S. is shaped not only by age and gender but also by political attitudes. In 2025, there is a 25-point gap in the desire to migrate between Americans who approve and those who disapprove of the country’s leadership.

Desire to permanently leave the U.S. was not always such a politicized issue. Between 2008 and 2016, migration aspirations were similar regardless of views toward the country’s leadership. After Trump’s election, 2017 marked the first time this gap exceeded 10 points. During Trump’s first term, the difference in migration aspirations between those approving and disapproving of national leadership averaged 14 points. Under Biden, the gap narrowed to eight points, before climbing to 25 points in 2025, the first year of Trump’s second term in office.

Younger women’s much stronger orientation to the Democratic Party than other age and gender groups exhibit helps explain some of the differences in desire to move abroad. So far in 2025, 59% of women aged 18 to 44 identify as or lean Democratic, compared with 39% of younger men, 53% of older women and 37% of older men.

Desire to Migrate Rises Among Single and Married Women Alike

The people most likely to express a desire to migrate are typically those who have greater mobility, such as the unmarried, those without children at home and younger adults. However, among American women aged 18 to 44, the desire to migrate has risen regardless of marital status.

Between 2024 and 2025, at least two in five younger women — 41% of those who are married and 45% of those who are single — said they would like to move abroad permanently if given the chance. This is the narrowest gap by marital status among younger women in desire to move that Gallup has recorded since first asking the question, suggesting that younger married women increasingly do not view marriage as a barrier to migration.

The same pattern is true for having young children at home. Among younger women with children living at home, 40% say they would like to leave the U.S. for good, on par with the percentage among those without children (44%). Were these women to follow through on their desire to migrate, it is likely that they would take the next generation with them.

Younger Women Lose Faith in America’s Institutions

Across demographic groups, Americans with lower confidence in institutions such as the government, judicial system, military and integrity of elections are consistently more likely to express a desire to leave the country.

Over the past decade, younger women have not only shown the largest increase in wanting to move abroad but also have experienced the steepest drop in institutional confidence of any age or gender group.

In 2015, women aged 15 to 44 scored an average of 57 on Gallup’s National Institutions Index, which measures confidence in the national government, military, judiciary and honesty of elections.

Since then, younger women’s scores have fallen by 17 points — a sharper decline than seen for any other demographic — and dropped during both the Trump and Biden administrations. By comparison, women aged 45 and older and men aged 15 to 44 have remained broadly stable in their confidence in institutions, while the score among men aged 45 and older has increased by 15 points.

The Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned the constitutional right to abortion, may have contributed to the drop in younger women’s National Institutions Index score — particularly the steep decline in their confidence in the judicial system, which fell from 55% in 2015 to 32% in 2025, more than any other age group. However, when it comes to desire to migrate, the Dobbs decision alone may have played a more limited role, given that the trend in wanting to leave began years before the ruling.

Bottom Line

More Americans than at any time in the past two decades say they would like to move away from the U.S. permanently, with the sentiment becoming increasingly politicized since 2017. Younger American women’s desire to leave the U.S. has surged to unprecedented levels in recent years, widening the gender divide to more than 20 points, the widest recorded for any country in the World Poll.

Unlike their peers in other advanced economies, younger American women now stand apart from the rest of the U.S. in several respects. They increasingly lack faith in national institutions and picture their futures beyond America’s borders.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 15:10

Rotation, pAIn, Or Smooth Sailing?

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

pAIn Ahead?

Last weekend we published pAIn Ahead? which had two major problems:

1. It is a bad idea to start a title with a small letter, as our publishing system is designed to force Capital Letters in titles, including the first word of the report.

2. It is more than a little embarrassing to have a title “pAIn Ahead” out there as stocks opened strong and went higher throughout the next few days with the Nasdaq 100 closing up 790 points!

But, on the week, the index fell slightly, making last weekend’s report far less misplaced than where it started the week. If we hadn’t had a major “buy the dip” moment on Friday at its lows, the Nasdaq could have closed down 2% on the week.

Since we had a small loss on the week, a 4.4% pullback from its high on Monday to its low on Friday, it makes sense to revisit the points we made when expressing concern about the potential for an AI- driven pullback.

• Bitcoin. Whether it is leading the market or just going along with the “momentum” stocks, crypto had a tough week, with Bitcoin dropping from $104k last Friday to $94k this Friday. It is rebounding a bit this weekend, and is worth watching as virtually every regulatory and administration headline remains positive, but it cannot seem to rally significantly. I think it is safe to say that everyone keeps an eye on Bitcoin as a barometer for risk assets, especially on weekends, when markets are closed, but the news flow doesn’t stop.

• Retail Dip Buying. I remain suspicious that the longs are held by “pros” at this stage as I’ve seen evidence of profit taking by retail. Having said that, the “retail” favorite names and ETFs had a very volatile week (even more so than the market as a whole) and we did see some inflows into some of the most “beat up” names. Maybe it was retail that led the surge, but it could have also been pro traders getting “cute” and trying to anticipate positive weekend news (the admin has been quick to provide positive headlines, especially over the weekend and on Monday morning, when stocks stumble). We will see what happens, but I think the almost 1% late-day fade off of the highs is telling. Of late, dip buying isn’t always providing instant gratification.

• Volatility. VIX inched higher on the week, while realized stock market volatility rose rather aggressively. The MOVE Index (a measure of bond market volatility) rose more rapidly than the VIX. Higher overall volatility can force some “risk parity” strategies to de-risk. Any shift in correlations between major asset classes can cause them to reduce as well. This could be happening already, but I doubt it has been meaningful. Another week like the past week (especially if the net result is more to the downside) could cause real de-risking.

• Sentiment and Inflation. The admin is dialing back tariffs on many agricultural goods. Coffee is high on my list. I’m having difficulty wrapping my head around the fact that the admin is signaling that they are championing lower prices by eliminating these tariffs.

  • Hmmmm…this admin put the tariffs in place, so not sure how much credit they deserve for removing them. I think it is good that they are changing policy, but it always seemed weird to tariff things that we don’t grow or produce domestically (and have climate limitations to doing so).

  • Hmmmm…is this a low-key acknowledgement that on some goods, where there is no obvious replacement, tariffs get paid for by the consumer? This has been pretty clear since day 1, so it is good that it is being acknowledged, if only tacitly, but how many other tariffs are finding their way to the consumer? We suspect that number is still small, but growing over time.

• There is a lot of rhetoric about affordability, and that is only increasing as both sides dig in to fight over costs and who is responsible.

• Bonds and the Fed. The probability of a Fed cut has moved from over 60% to “only” 43% according to Bloomberg’s WIRP function. Now that the probability has dropped below 50% the Fed may lean towards not cutting, since the market isn’t “forcing” their hand. Yes, the Fed will make its own deliberations, but it does pay attention to the market. A lot could still happen between now and the December 10th meeting, but this is yet another indicator of dialing back cuts until the new year. I’m told much of the recent selling was triggered by the concern that the Fed could be less aggressive. I could see that being a part of the whole discussion, but we are susceptible in so many ways that it didn’t take much to shake our belief in the biggest momentum trades of the year. The “old” 10- year (August 2035 maturity) rose from 4.10% to close out the week at 4.14%, though it briefly got to 4.05% on Friday morning (around the timing of OPEX). I continue to expect more downside for Treasuries with the 10-year yield to approach 4.3%. That will weigh on stocks if it turns out to be correct.

Rotation

There is certainly a rotation trade and I think it will continue to work.

For this trade, I like the S&P 500 equal weight versus the Nasdaq 100. In the past year, QQQ (a Nasdaq 100 ETF), is up about 20% while RSP (a S&P 500 equal weight ETF) is up only 4.5%. There is room for significant outperformance on this relative value trade.

Bottom Line

Sticking to our ProSec (Production for Security) themes. See any of our recent reports at Academy Macro. Look for the “rotation” to continue.

Also, I think the pain continues. The Nasdaq 100 is down on the month and the issues facing it (discussed above and detailed last weekend), have not been resolved. If anything, the big move on Monday and then the fierce dip buying on Friday may well have left a lot of short-term “trading” longs exposed to a further pullback.

I don’t like Treasuries (targeting at least 4.25% on 10s).

We continue to think credit spreads will remain under a bit of pressure. Nothing major, but the combination of:

• Some private credit “fiascos” (not sure what else you can call something that seemed to go from par to default almost overnight). Again, I don’t think there are a lot of “cockroaches” out there, but it is weighing on the market – and I believe this is making it more difficult for small companies to access credit – which is a real-world problem.

• Increasing “concern” about how much debt needs to be raised to build out data centers, AI, and the electricity generation capacity to power those data centers. Not alarming and will play out over time, but this will weigh on credit spreads.

• The low income consumer. Increasing concerns about delinquencies and the fact that the number of households having delinquencies may be set to rise.

It was a very memorable Veterans Day week here at Academy, and now we set our sights on Thanksgiving with friends and family! In the meantime:

• Rotation? Yes.

• pAIn Ahead? Likely

• Smooth Sailing? Unlikely

This is a “normal” or even “run of the mill” adjustment to valuations, current conditions, and various outlooks. Certainly not alarming, but not yet time to fully reload into the momentum names.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 14:00

Virginia Neighborhood Shocked By Massive Home Addition Built For Three-Generation Family

Multigenerational living has surged to a record high, with 17% of 2024 buyers purchasing homes designed for multiple generations, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

Families are increasingly combining households to cope with elevated living costs, caregiving demands, and even the need to reconnect as a family unit. This trend is being fueled by a housing market that remains frozen for many first-time buyers - caught between high mortgage rates and record high prices - pushing more families to pool resources and live under one roof.

The multigenerational home trend is being fueled by a "Silver Tsunami" of Baby Boomers entering their 70s and 80s. As this cohort ages, millions will downsize, retire, move into multigenerational homes, require caregiving, or transition to assisted-living or aging-in-place arrangements.

Evidence of this trend recently surfaced in a quiet northern Virginia neighborhood, where a newly built home addition has sparked outrage, according to FOX 5's Bob Barnard.

Another view.

Barnard said a three-story addition to a single-story home is set to house three generations of one family. He noted that the builders met all zoning requirements, but the neighborhood is outraged because the addition resembles a small multifamily apartment building.

This is wild.

Immigrants move into a suburban Virginia neighborhood, construct a 3-story monstrosity of an “addition” for 3 generations of family members to live in—nearly encroaching on their neighbor’s property line.

And people wonder why Americans can’t afford homes… pic.twitter.com/L134Du4MXr

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) November 15, 2025

Given that the Silver Tsunami is underway and much of the real estate industry isn't prepared, additions like the one seen in the northern Virginia neighborhood will continue to startle communities.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 13:25

The Debt-Reduction Playbook: Can Today's Governments Learn From The Past?

Authored by Joe Sullivan-Bissett via BondVigiliantes.com,

Government debt levels continue to linger in uncomfortable territory across developed markets, with fiscal deficits stubbornly high despite reasonably resilient growth and employment – especially when compared to past norms. This is not a post-crisis or post-war moment, yet debt levels resemble those of an economy fighting its way out of recession.

Runaway levels of debt, and the question of how they can be contained, could well be the defining macro story of the next decade. This not only has implications for public finances, but also the trajectory of yields, inflation, and the credibility of future policy.

High debt is not new, with history being full of examples of governments facing daunting fiscal positions, and each era has found its own way out: sometimes through discipline, sometimes through inflation, and sometimes through quiet financial engineering. Earlier this year, Rob Burrows explored options for dealing with debt in this blog.

Following on from that, below I explore if there are any useful lessons in history which could provide a solution for today’s backdrop.

Financial repression: The silent partner in debt reduction

After World War II, both the US and the UK emerged with debt-to-GDP ratios well above 100%, with the latter at 250%. Yet over the following decades, those burdens shrank dramatically, and without large fiscal surpluses or deep austerity. The solution was financial repression.

Governments and central banks effectively capped interest rates while letting inflation run high. With capital controls in place and a banking system that was required to hold government paper, real interest rates stayed negative for years. Investors earned less than inflation, and debt quietly melted away in real terms.

Source: Bank of England’s Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018

By the mid-1970s, the UK’s debt ratio fell to roughly 50% of GDP. Much of that adjustment came not from paying debt down, but from the erosion of its real value.

Could it work today? Not easily. Financial repression relies on closed capital systems and willing domestic savers, both of which are in short supply today. In open markets with moveable capital, measures such as yield caps or mandated sovereign debt holding would likely require complex regulatory interventions or indirect support from central banks. Such policies would be difficult in a globalised, market-oriented system.

Growth as the denominator: Britain after the Napoleonic Wars

After the Napoleonic Wars, Britain’s public debt exceeded 200% of GDP. Over the next half-century, it fell steadily, not through inflation (the gold standard ruled that out) but through real growth and persistent, if modest, budget surpluses.

The Industrial Revolution transformed output and tax revenues, while the state held spending flat. The result was a slow but powerful denominator effect: GDP grew faster than the debt stock, even as prices remained stable or fell.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/

* Definition of ‘International $’ on which this data set is based, can be found here:https://ourworldindata.org/international-dollars

Could governments grow themselves out of debt again? That depends on whether today’s economy can find an equivalent productivity revolution. Demographics, slower innovation diffusion, and lower investment all weigh against it. Unless of course, AI proves to be the answer…

Inflation: The blunt instrument

Inflation has historically been one of the fastest ways to reduce debt. Weimar Germany in the 1920s and Japan in the immediate post-war years both saw real debts wiped away by surging prices. Even moderate inflation, sustained over time, can do significant work: in the 1970s, UK debt ratios fell sharply again as inflation outpaced borrowing costs.

Could governments inflate their way out today? Using inflation to reduce debt today is less straightforward, given that central banks are independent and focused on keeping inflation close to 2%. The recent post-pandemic inflation spike showed how higher inflation can create economic and social pressures, and how institutions respond to keep it in check. If inflation stays above target for too long, it could affect the credibility of monetary policy. Still, a period of slightly higher inflation alongside nominal growth might be seen as a practical path if political constraints make fiscal tightening difficult.

So are there any useful lessons from history?

Perhaps not. Each historical escape route looks less accessible today:

• Lowering debt through austerity is politically challenging, especially in societies already weary from years of spending restraint and rising inequality

• Inflation is broadly constrained through central bank objectives

• Growth remains elusive, unless technology delivers a genuine productivity revolution

• Financial repression, while possible in partial form, risks distorting markets and undermining investor confidence.

That leaves a muddle-through scenario: persistent deficits, modestly higher inflation tolerance, and debt ratios that stabilise rather than fall. Markets may increasingly price this as the new normal: A world of structurally higher term premia and periodic fiscal scares.

History suggests that when governments can’t grow, tax, or inflate their way out, they simply wait it out: relying on time, moderate nominal growth, and the slow erosion of debt through steady, incremental policy.

It’s not a dramatic ending to this episode, but it may be the most realistic one.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 12:50

US 'In Trouble' - Ford CEO Can't Find 5,000 Mechanics For $120k Jobs

Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley has sounded an alarm about the state of the US job market, saying Ford has been unable to fill 5,000 mechanic jobs paying $120,000 a year. Those $120,000 salaries are nearly double the US average. 

“We are in trouble in our country. We are not talking about this enough,” said Farley in an appearance last week on the Office Hours: Business Edition podcast. He said the shortage of qualified manual laborers isn't confined to Ford, but is something businesses across the nation are struggling with. 

“We have over a million openings in critical jobs, emergency services, trucking, factory workers, plumbers, electricians and tradesmen. It's a very serious thing. We do not have trade schools. We are not investing in educating a next generation of people like my grandfather who had nothing, who built a middle class life and a future for his family.

Those jobs are out there. Mechanics in a Ford dealership -- as of this morning, we had 5,000 openings. A bay with a lift and tools and no one working in it. $120,000-a-year job, but it takes you five years to learn it. To take a diesel out of a Super Duty, it takes a lot of skill. You need to know what you're doing." 

"We are in trouble in our country," said Ford CEO Jim Farley in his appearance on Office Hours: Business Edition. 

Rich Garrity, a National Association of Manufacturers board member, expanded on Farley's lament about the country's deficit in training programs, telling the New York Post:  

“We’re not just missing bodies, but we’re really missing ... skill sets that can connect to 21st-century manufacturing needs. The community colleges, the career tech programs do a solid job in providing foundational training, but we often see that they’re out of date when it comes to keeping up with how fast things are moving from a technology standpoint." 

Social media is awash in testimonials from young college grads bemoaning their inability to find jobs. Meanwhile, in August, BLS reported that America had over 400,000 available manufacturing jobs. There's an obvious disconnect, but, on a bright note, the long-running over-emphasis on college education may finally be waning. Trade school enrollment soared 16% in 2024, while college enrollment growth has been negligible in recent years.  

This is grunt work. It is beneath you. You should be talking out $200k in students loans and then getting a teller job at a bank paying $16hr. That is dignity. https://t.co/nf1k88G6Bl

— B (@B__Daily) November 15, 2025

“For many years in the US, it was, you go to a four-year college and things are set up for you,” Farley said. "And the reality is, that path is not necessarily what it used to be. A more valuable path, in many cases, is getting a technical college or apprenticeship and starting to learn certain skills very early on.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 12:15

Watch: Media Leftists Tip-Toe Around Trump Amid Lawsuit Fears

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Leftist media figures are increasingly walking on eggshells when discussing President Trump, hastily retracting or clarifying statements to avoid potential defamation lawsuits that could bankrupt their networks. 

In recent clips, MSNBC’s Jen Psaki and CNN anchors have been caught mid-sentence backpedaling on inflammatory remarks tying Trump to Jeffrey Epstein, signaling a broader chill in media rhetoric as Trump’s legal victories mount.

During a segment on MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki,” the host quickly corrected herself after implying Trump was among “predators” linked to Epstein. 

? LMAO! Jen Psaki sees a multi-MILLION dollar lawsuit flash before her very eyes and immediately retracts her defamatory statement about Donald Trump

"The other predators out there, in ADDITION to Trump! I mean, not, I'm not, not saying HE is…" pic.twitter.com/3wm9WLqIFF

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 13, 2025

Psaki stated, “The other predators out there, in addition to Trump! I mean, not, I’m not, not saying HE is…” This fumbling reversal came amid chyron headlines like “Trump White House Engulfed by New Epstein Bombshell,” highlighting how anchors are now second-guessing their words to evade legal scrutiny.

Similarly, CNN anchors went out of their way to absolve Trump during Epstein coverage, emphasising, “We wanna be clear. Trump didn’t receive or send any messages…he has not been accused of any wrongdoing with Epstein or Maxwell.”

This unsolicited clarification underscores the network’s caution, likely influenced by Trump’s aggressive litigation strategy against perceived smears.

? WOW! CNN is so PETRIFIED of a lawsuit that they are now fully exonerating President Trump of any wrongdoing RE: Epstein

"We wanna be clear. Trump didn't receive or send any messages…he has not been accused of any wrongdoing with Epstein or Maxwell." pic.twitter.com/66jDA8rxNa

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 14, 2025

These instances reflect a wider trend where media outlets are “tip-toeing” around Trump-related stories, fearing exposure and costly lawsuits. 

Critics argue this self-censorship stems from Trump’s track record of holding networks accountable, with legal experts noting that defamation laws are being weaponized to curb biased reporting. 

As one analyst put it, “The media is terrified of Trump’s legal team— they’re editing in real-time to avoid the next big payout.”

Democrats too have been forced to delete a previous completely unfounded claim that Trump spent Thanksgiving with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017, a remarkably stupid accusation given that Trump was serving as President at that time and Epstein was a known pedophile.

? BREAKING: The official X account of the Democrat Party has DELETED their post claiming President Trump spent Thanksgiving with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017

He was literally the President, dumbasses. You don’t think someone would’ve noticed?!

Trump should BANKRUPT the DNC for this… pic.twitter.com/dXiyOg4MYy

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) November 13, 2025

Tying into this caution is the ongoing BBC controversy over a deceptively edited video in their Panorama documentary, which spliced Trump’s January 6, 2021, speech to misleadingly suggest incitement. 

After the President issued an ultimatum, the BBC apologized, admitting an “error of judgment” and agreeing not to rebroadcast the episode, but rejected demands for compensation, stating there’s “no basis for a defamation claim.” 

Trump, however, brutally rejected the apology, vowing to proceed with a threatened $1 billion lawsuit, calling it insufficient and demanding full accountability. 

This scandal exemplifies how international media is also treading carefully, with the BBC’s partial concession highlighting fears of U.S. legal repercussions. 

President Trump’s successful suits against major networks are fueling this media restraint. In July 2025, CBS/Paramount settled for $16 million over deceptively edited “60 Minutes” footage of Kamala Harris, marking a major win against manipulative reporting.

Similarly, ABC agreed to a $15 million donation to Trump’s presidential library in December 2024 to resolve defamation claims from George Stephanopoulos’s on-air accusations. 

These settlements expose the leftist media’s agenda of biased editing and smears, forcing outlets to rethink their anti-Trump narratives or face financial ruin. 

Beyond these, recent cases abound. Trump filed a $15 billion suit against The New York Times in September for alleged defamation, prompting the paper to issue clarifications in subsequent stories.

In July, he sued The Wall Street Journal for $10 billion over similar claims, leading to heightened editorial scrutiny. 

NPR and PBS have also faced threats, with insiders reporting “tiptoeing” in coverage to avoid litigation. 

Critics note this wave of suits—tying records for 2025—reveals how media giants are now prioritizing legal safety over aggressive reporting.

These developments underscore how Trump’s legal offensives are dismantling the leftist media’s unchecked bias, forcing accountability and exposing their agenda of manufactured scandals to undermine America First policies.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 11:40

Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On November 14, 2025, LBR was at $560.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 7.7% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.