Individual Economists

The Hidden World War

Zero Hedge -

The Hidden World War

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

World War III is already underway, but most people don’t recognize it because they’re conditioned to expect war to look like traditional physical violence with bombs, guns, and battlefield confrontations.

This bias stems from centuries of warfare taking a particular form, similar to how people once couldn’t conceive of light without fire until electricity was invented.

Redefining War

At its core, war is conflict where parties use tools to increase their power and achieve outcomes that oppose others’ interests.

Think strategically about modern warfare: what would be the most effective weapons and tactics today? The answer is that physical violence — while still available as a tool — is no longer the smartest or most effective approach.

Modern Warfare Arsenal

Today’s war employs sophisticated, often invisible weapons including. Here is a list to consider. Think about experiences you’ve been having and consider where these have been used against you.

  • Information warfare: Cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, flooding people with conflicting information to create confusion and cognitive dissonance.

  • Economic weapons: Sanctions, cryptocurrency manipulation, making populations dependent on controlled resources.

  • Political subversion: Election interference, undermining government legitimacy, bribing officials and influencers.

  • Psychological operations: Creating crises then positioning as the savior, exploiting social media platforms that control public discourse.

  • Biological and resource warfare: Famine, deprivation disguised as natural events.

  • Social manipulation: Fueling ideological divides, inflaming nationalism, targeting masculinity to prevent resistance.

Why Silent War?

Modern warfare operates covertly because war’s reputation is “ruined.” People no longer see it as noble or necessary. Public support has evaporated, in large part because politicians are now seen largely as lying scoundrels.

This is making it strategically better to gaslight populations, deny war is happening, and paint a picture that “everything’s okay.” Furthermore, leaders no longer need masses of men for physical combat, so there’s no benefit to declaring war openly.

Current War Symptoms

People are experiencing classic wartime symptoms without understanding the cause:

  • Loss of hope and inability to plan for the future

  • Widespread dread, numbness, and sense of unreality

  • Increased nationalism and “us vs. them” thinking

  • Fear of government and authority figures

  • Financial stress from inflation

  • Young people avoiding starting families

  • Supply chain disruptions and stockpiling behavior

  • Feeling like danger is everywhere

  • Limiting news consumption due to overwhelming negativity

  • Escalating protests and militarized police

  • People fleeing their countries or considering it

  • Fear of speaking out or losing rights

  • Rapid, “temporary” legal changes justified by public safety

  • Daily exposure to propaganda and radical content

  • Using basic needs (food, energy, money) as weapons

  • Fear that personal identity could make one an “enemy of the state”

Interconnected Global Conflict

What appear to be isolated regional conflicts are actually interconnected proxy wars within a larger global struggle. This breaks down boundaries between local and global conflict – a hallmark of world wars. Nations and alliances are being drawn into broader struggles for dominance and survival.

People must navigate constantly shifting geopolitical relationships, never knowing which countries or leaders are allies or enemies. This creates exhaustion, overwhelm, and a sense that nothing is safe or trustworthy.

Individual Experiences Vary

Wartime experiences differ dramatically based on location, identity, and circumstances.

This has been the case in previous world wars. It is what we are experiencing now.

The Reality Check

The key insight is that people are experiencing genuine wartime symptoms and stress, but because no formal war has been declared and it doesn’t look like traditional warfare, they fail to understand why they feel this way.

This leads to self-blame and thinking something is wrong with them personally.

Conclusion

Recognizing this “silent war” is crucial for understanding current global confusion and personal distress. Modern warfare is more sophisticated and potentially more abusive than traditional physical violence. The confusion and decision paralysis people feel is a normal response to an abnormal situation — a world war being fought with psychological, economic, and information weapons rather than conventional military force.

Realise that your feelings and experiences make perfect sense within this context, and it is, I believe, important to remove the self-blame that comes from not understanding why the world feels so chaotic and threatening.

Physical violence may still occur, but only as one tool among many in this new form of warfare that prioritizes psychological manipulation and systemic control over traditional battlefield tactics.

*  *  *

If you recognize the signs of this silent war and want to better understand the economic, political, and cultural forces shaping our future, we invite you to go deeper. We’ve prepared a free PDF report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time, which unpacks the risks ahead and what they could mean for your money and personal freedom. Inside, contrarian money manager Chris MacIntosh shares insights on how to navigate these shifting dynamics and position yourself to stay one step ahead. You can access your free copy by clicking here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 23:25

Latest US Attacks On Drug Boats Brings Total To 19, As Conservatives Urge Trump Stop Foreign Distractions

Zero Hedge -

Latest US Attacks On Drug Boats Brings Total To 19, As Conservatives Urge Trump Stop Foreign Distractions

At a moment that more and more conservative voices are calling on President Trump to drop the distraction of entangling foreign policy issues and instead work on setting domestic issues in order after a lengthy government shutdown, the Pentagon has announced yet more strikes on alleged drug boats off the coast of South America.

It's hard to keep track at this point, but the latest action takes the number of boats blown up near Venezuela to 19, resulting in over 70 suspected traffickers killed.

Via Reuters

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth announced two more strikes which happened Sunday. He wrote on X Monday, "Yesterday, at the direction of President Trump, two lethal kinetic strikes were conducted on two vessels operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations."

He added, "Both strikes were conducted in international waters and 3 male narco-terrorists were aboard each vessel. All 6 were killed. No US forces were harmed. Under President Trump, we are protecting the homeland and killing these cartel terrorists who wish to harm our country and its people."

Still, Washington has yet to provide specific evidence that those targeted were involved in drug smuggling or posed any direct threat to the United States, and some critics have questioned why these boast aren't subject to conventional interdicts by agencies like the Coast Guard or DEA.

Instead, the boast are without warning just blown out of the water, typically via drone strike.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has meanwhile accused Donald Trump of trying to overthrow his government. One driving motive of US action might be the fact that the Venezuela sits on the world's largest proven crude reserves, but getting it out of the ground utilizing the socialist country's derelict and broken infrastructure is another problem.

Meanwhile, The Federalist's Sean Davis recently sounded off...

Trump needs to ditch the foreign policy crap and focus all his attention on the domestic economy, which is still not working for the majority of people. Right now he looks weak and rudderless. Be mad all you want, but it’s the truth.

Newly minted college grads can’t find work and are saddled with debt. Where is their path to the American dream right now? Who is giving them a vision of a future worth fighting for?

Davis continued, "You cannot have a viable country or future when half your country and all its young people are locked out of the economy and locked out of ever owning a home or much of anything beyond next month’s streaming subscription. Does anyone in Washington care about this? Anyone at all?"

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 23:00

Trump Admin To Lend "Hundreds Of Billions" To Build Nuclear Power Plants

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin To Lend "Hundreds Of Billions" To Build Nuclear Power Plants

While the market is finally starting to grapple with the most unpleasant question of who will plug the funding gap needed to build out all the data centers required to make the AI dream a reality, a gap which Morgan Stanley recently calculated would be as large as $2.9 trillion in capex funding needs, of which at least $1 trillion will come in the form of debt (and mostly private debt)...

... there is another, just as critical question: who will fund the energy buildout that powers these data centers? 

Recall, last December Morgan Stanley calculated that the US would need at least 36GW in new power to be brought online by 2028 to energize all the (yet to be built) data centers, a number which one year later is surely far higher. 

And at a cost of $50-60BN per GW of power, we can quickly add several more trillion dollar that will be needed in the next several years: money, which as this Bloomberg article makes painfully clear, is simply not available right now.

So where will this missing funding come from? Why the US government of course. 

By now it should be clear to all but the most purple-haired libs that the US will need nuclear power plants - both conventional and modular - and lots of them, to have even a remote chance of ever catching up to the ever growing energy needs... and as we said recently, one can print money, but one can't print energy. 

But they sure can try.... and according to Secretary Chris Wright, nuclear power will receive most of the money from the Energy Department's Loan Programs Office (LPO) as the Trump administration pushes to quickly break ground on new reactors. According to Reuters, The LPO has hundreds of billions of dollars in financing aid, including loan guarantees for projects that struggle to get bank loans.

"We have significant lending authority at the loan program office," the Secretary of Energy said at a conference hosted by the American Nuclear Society in Washington D.C. "By far the biggest use of those dollars will be for nuclear power plants, to get those first plants built. The U.S. currently has no commercial nuclear reactors being built, though several intend to reverse their permanent shutdown status and open again, and there are other plans to build new large and small reactors."

During Trump's first term in the White House, the only use he made of the LPO was for financing reactors at the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia. Expect a flood of debt deals in the coming weeks and months as the clock is ticking for the US to catch up to China, which currently has 29 reactors under construction to America's zero.

As we reported at the time, President Trump signed an executive order in May that called for the US to break ground on 10 large nuclear reactors by 2030, while Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft have been investing billions of dollars to restart old nuclear plants, upgrade existing ones, and deploy new reactor technology to meet the electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers. Others are also joining the fray, but as Sam Altman made clear, everyone is expecting the US government to the be the "insurer of last resort." 

Wright said he expects electricity demand from AI to attract billions of dollars in equity capital to build new nuclear capacity from "very creditworthy providers." The Energy Department could match those private dollars by as much as four to one with low cost debt financing from the loan office, he said.

"When we leave office three years and three months from now, I want to see hopefully dozens of nuclear plants under construction," Wright said. Make that all hyperscaler CEOs too because without those dozens of nuclear plants, guess what: the AI bubble is going to burst in the most spectacular fashion. 

Cooling towers at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024

The Trump administration tipped its cards last month when it struck a deal with the owners of Westinghouse to invest $80 billion to build nuclear plants across the US. Westinghouse is owned by uranium miner Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management (both Canadian companies). 

Westinghouse has designed a modern reactor called the AP1000 that can power more than 750,000 homes. CEO Dan Sumner said in July that Westinghouse would meet Trump's call to build large new plants with the AP1000 design. But Westinghouse has struggled in the past to build the AP1000 on time and on budget. And as a stark indication of just how capital intensive building NPPs can be, Westinghouse went bankrupt in 2017 from cost overruns at big nuclear projects in Georgia and South Carolina.

Which, naturally, opens the door wide open to far cheaper projects from small modular reactor developers such as Oklo and Nano Nuclear.

Cameco Chief Operating Officer Grant Isaac said last week that the U.S. government has a number of options available to facilitate the financing of Westinghouse reactors, including the Energy Department's loan office.

"We're assured that there is a lot of interest in investing this minimum $80 billion in order to begin the process," Isaac told investors on Cameco's third-quarter earnings call.

Under the terms of the October deal, Westinghouse could spin out as a separate, publicly-traded company with the U.S. government as a shareholder.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 22:46

Trump Admin To Lend "Hundreds Of Billions" To Build Nuclear Power Plants

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin To Lend "Hundreds Of Billions" To Build Nuclear Power Plants

While the market is finally starting to grapple with the most unpleasant question of who will plug the funding gap needed to build out all the data centers required to make the AI dream a reality, a gap which Morgan Stanley recently calculated would be as large as $2.9 trillion in capex funding needs, of which at least $1 trillion will come in the form of debt (and mostly private debt)...

... there is another, just as critical question: who will fund the energy buildout that powers these data centers? 

Recall, last December Morgan Stanley calculated that the US would need at least 36GW in new power to be brought online by 2028 to energize all the (yet to be built) data centers, a number which one year later is surely far higher. 

And at a cost of $50-60BN per GW of power, we can quickly add several more trillion dollar that will be needed in the next several years: money, which as this Bloomberg article makes painfully clear, is simply not available right now.

So where will this missing funding come from? Why the US government of course. 

By now it should be clear to all but the most purple-haired libs that the US will need nuclear power plants - both conventional and modular - and lots of them, to have even a remote chance of ever catching up to the ever growing energy needs... and as we said recently, one can print money, but one can't print energy. 

But they sure can try.... and according to Secretary Chris Wright, nuclear power will receive most of the money from the Energy Department's Loan Programs Office (LPO) as the Trump administration pushes to quickly break ground on new reactors. According to Reuters, The LPO has hundreds of billions of dollars in financing aid, including loan guarantees for projects that struggle to get bank loans.

"We have significant lending authority at the loan program office," the Secretary of Energy said at a conference hosted by the American Nuclear Society in Washington D.C. "By far the biggest use of those dollars will be for nuclear power plants, to get those first plants built. The U.S. currently has no commercial nuclear reactors being built, though several intend to reverse their permanent shutdown status and open again, and there are other plans to build new large and small reactors."

During Trump's first term in the White House, the only use he made of the LPO was for financing reactors at the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia. Expect a flood of debt deals in the coming weeks and months as the clock is ticking for the US to catch up to China, which currently has 29 reactors under construction to America's zero.

As we reported at the time, President Trump signed an executive order in May that called for the US to break ground on 10 large nuclear reactors by 2030, while Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms and Microsoft have been investing billions of dollars to restart old nuclear plants, upgrade existing ones, and deploy new reactor technology to meet the electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers. Others are also joining the fray, but as Sam Altman made clear, everyone is expecting the US government to the be the "insurer of last resort." 

Wright said he expects electricity demand from AI to attract billions of dollars in equity capital to build new nuclear capacity from "very creditworthy providers." The Energy Department could match those private dollars by as much as four to one with low cost debt financing from the loan office, he said.

"When we leave office three years and three months from now, I want to see hopefully dozens of nuclear plants under construction," Wright said. Make that all hyperscaler CEOs too because without those dozens of nuclear plants, guess what: the AI bubble is going to burst in the most spectacular fashion. 

Cooling towers at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 30, 2024

The Trump administration tipped its cards last month when it struck a deal with the owners of Westinghouse to invest $80 billion to build nuclear plants across the US. Westinghouse is owned by uranium miner Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management (both Canadian companies). 

Westinghouse has designed a modern reactor called the AP1000 that can power more than 750,000 homes. CEO Dan Sumner said in July that Westinghouse would meet Trump's call to build large new plants with the AP1000 design. But Westinghouse has struggled in the past to build the AP1000 on time and on budget. And as a stark indication of just how capital intensive building NPPs can be, Westinghouse went bankrupt in 2017 from cost overruns at big nuclear projects in Georgia and South Carolina.

Which, naturally, opens the door wide open to far cheaper projects from small modular reactor developers such as Oklo and Nano Nuclear.

Cameco Chief Operating Officer Grant Isaac said last week that the U.S. government has a number of options available to facilitate the financing of Westinghouse reactors, including the Energy Department's loan office.

"We're assured that there is a lot of interest in investing this minimum $80 billion in order to begin the process," Isaac told investors on Cameco's third-quarter earnings call.

Under the terms of the October deal, Westinghouse could spin out as a separate, publicly-traded company with the U.S. government as a shareholder.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 22:46

SNAP And The Growth Of The American Welfare State

Zero Hedge -

SNAP And The Growth Of The American Welfare State

Authored by Sylvia Xu and Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as SNAP, unexpectedly took center stage in debates over the federal government shutdown.

As funding for the program, formerly known as Food Stamps, ran out in October, Congress, President Donald Trump, and the federal courts have wrestled with what to do about feeding millions of Americans who depend on this benefit each month.

SNAP has grown in size and cost since its inception in 1964, as have many other social welfare programs.

Here’s a closer look at the program, what it costs, the participation rates in different states, and how it has come to top $100 billion per year.

Participation

Participation in SNAP has grown dramatically over the last 50 years.

About 2 percent of Americans received SNAP benefits in 1970, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Today, about 13 percent of Americans receive SNAP benefits—some 42 million people.

That’s a 650 percent increase in the number of Americans who are unable to provide adequate food for themselves.

Participation spiked by 69 percent between 2008 and 2013, reaching a high of more than 45 million monthly recipients, largely due to the nationwide recession, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Between 2007 and 2009, national unemployment averaged 9.3 percent, and nearly 15 percent of Americans lived in poverty.

Participation rates vary between New Mexico, the highest at 21.2 percent of the population, and Utah, the lowest at 4.8 percent.

The participation rate for many states mirrors their poverty rate. Some states have exceptionally high or low rates of SNAP participation compared to the rate of poverty.

Outliers on the high side are: Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Wyoming.

On the low side, Georgia’s SNAP participation rate is 12.5 percent, while its poverty rate is 12.6 percent.

Spending

SNAP spending has undergone two surges, reaching annual costs of more than $100 billion in 2024.

Spending shot up 112 percent between 2008 and 2013, coinciding with the surge in enrollment. SNAP costs went up another 98 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic era, when personal benefit amounts increased by 77 percent, according to The Epoch Times’ analysis of Agriculture Department data.

That’s a 300 percent increase in 20 years compared to an overall 50 percent increase in enrollment.

States with higher populations generally receive a larger share of SNAP benefits. California tops the list, receiving more than $1 billion per month, followed by New York at $647 million, Texas at $614 million, and Florida at $535 million.

Alaska and Hawaii both receive nearly double the average SNAP benefit per person, at $364 and $361 per month, respectively. Beneficiaries in New York ($218), Massachusetts ($216), and Tennessee ($203) receive the highest monthly average among the contiguous states.

Incorrect Payments

As benefits have grown more generous, the error rate for payments increased, according to an October report from Alliance for Opportunity, a conservative public policy organisation.

The error rate—which measures how often states make mistakes in determining who gets SNAP benefits and how much they receive—hit 11 percent in 2022 and remained close to that level through 2024. That’s three times higher than the rate in 2013.

That spike in payment errors reversed 15 years of continuous improvement, according to Alliance for Opportunity.

SNAP incorrectly disbursed nearly $11 billion in 2024. This figure breaks down into $9 billion in overpayments and $2 billion in underpayments for a net overpayment of $7 billion.

Before the pandemic, annual SNAP erroneous payments never exceeded $4.2 billion.

The increase was due to increased flexibility granted to states in administering the program, according to Alliance for Opportunity. As states were allowed to let individuals self-attest income, simplify reporting, and take longer certification periods.

California led in the total amount of improper payments, with an estimated $1.4 billion–approximately one in every nine dollars was sent out incorrectly.

New York followed closely, tallying $1 billion in improper disbursements, with roughly one in every seven dollars being sent wrong.

Florida reported improper payments totaling $990.8 million, with an error rate of 15 percent.

Only payment errors greater than $56 per household were included in the error rate. However, all errors will be tallied in 2026 thanks to a provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Since the program’s establishment in 1964, the federal government has fully funded SNAP benefits. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states with payment error rates above 6 percent will pay a cost share that covers 5 percent to 15 percent of benefits.

Most states will begin paying a state match if their error rates remain the same.

Fraud

SNAP has a significant amount of fraud, according to Robert Rector, senior researcher at The Heritage Foundation. “The [reported] error rates are false and ridiculously low,” he said.

In some cases, recipients don’t accurately report their income. There is an incentive to do so because the benefit is keyed to income level. Those who earn less receive higher amounts of aid.

Inaccurate counting of household members also contributes to fraudulent payments, according to Rector, who notes that the number of single mothers receiving SNAP benefits is about 35 percent higher than the number of single mothers in the country, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Work Requirements

“There are about 4 million people on food stamps that are called able-bodied adults without dependents,” Rector told The Epoch Times.

Congress changed the program’s work requirement rule in July. States are now implementing new guidelines to comply with the changes.

Able-bodied adults without dependents are required to work, volunteer, or take part in training at least 20 hours a week, or 80 hours per month, to maintain their SNAP benefits.

Older people are granted an exemption from this requirement, but the age limit for the exemption is increasing from 54 to 64.

Generally, people ages 18 through 64 must meet this requirement to receive SNAP benefits for more than three months in any 36-month period.

Work can be something done in exchange for money, goods, or services.

Growth of Social Programs

President Lyndon Johnson introduced his vision to build a Great Society for the American people in 1963.

Over the next several years, Congress passed landmark legislation to social welfare programs that are still in place, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Food Stamps.

Those programs have been expanded over the years, and others have been added, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Low Income Energy Assistance Program, Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, federal housing assistance, student loans and grants, and many others.

Federal spending on all social welfare programs, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product, rose from 0.27 percent in 1962 to 3.8 percent in 2024. That’s an increase of more than 1,250 percent.

The federal poverty level fell by about 50 percent between 1962 and 2000, but remains about 11 percent today.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 22:35

SNAP And The Growth Of The American Welfare State

Zero Hedge -

SNAP And The Growth Of The American Welfare State

Authored by Sylvia Xu and Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as SNAP, unexpectedly took center stage in debates over the federal government shutdown.

As funding for the program, formerly known as Food Stamps, ran out in October, Congress, President Donald Trump, and the federal courts have wrestled with what to do about feeding millions of Americans who depend on this benefit each month.

SNAP has grown in size and cost since its inception in 1964, as have many other social welfare programs.

Here’s a closer look at the program, what it costs, the participation rates in different states, and how it has come to top $100 billion per year.

Participation

Participation in SNAP has grown dramatically over the last 50 years.

About 2 percent of Americans received SNAP benefits in 1970, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Today, about 13 percent of Americans receive SNAP benefits—some 42 million people.

That’s a 650 percent increase in the number of Americans who are unable to provide adequate food for themselves.

Participation spiked by 69 percent between 2008 and 2013, reaching a high of more than 45 million monthly recipients, largely due to the nationwide recession, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Between 2007 and 2009, national unemployment averaged 9.3 percent, and nearly 15 percent of Americans lived in poverty.

Participation rates vary between New Mexico, the highest at 21.2 percent of the population, and Utah, the lowest at 4.8 percent.

The participation rate for many states mirrors their poverty rate. Some states have exceptionally high or low rates of SNAP participation compared to the rate of poverty.

Outliers on the high side are: Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Wyoming.

On the low side, Georgia’s SNAP participation rate is 12.5 percent, while its poverty rate is 12.6 percent.

Spending

SNAP spending has undergone two surges, reaching annual costs of more than $100 billion in 2024.

Spending shot up 112 percent between 2008 and 2013, coinciding with the surge in enrollment. SNAP costs went up another 98 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic era, when personal benefit amounts increased by 77 percent, according to The Epoch Times’ analysis of Agriculture Department data.

That’s a 300 percent increase in 20 years compared to an overall 50 percent increase in enrollment.

States with higher populations generally receive a larger share of SNAP benefits. California tops the list, receiving more than $1 billion per month, followed by New York at $647 million, Texas at $614 million, and Florida at $535 million.

Alaska and Hawaii both receive nearly double the average SNAP benefit per person, at $364 and $361 per month, respectively. Beneficiaries in New York ($218), Massachusetts ($216), and Tennessee ($203) receive the highest monthly average among the contiguous states.

Incorrect Payments

As benefits have grown more generous, the error rate for payments increased, according to an October report from Alliance for Opportunity, a conservative public policy organisation.

The error rate—which measures how often states make mistakes in determining who gets SNAP benefits and how much they receive—hit 11 percent in 2022 and remained close to that level through 2024. That’s three times higher than the rate in 2013.

That spike in payment errors reversed 15 years of continuous improvement, according to Alliance for Opportunity.

SNAP incorrectly disbursed nearly $11 billion in 2024. This figure breaks down into $9 billion in overpayments and $2 billion in underpayments for a net overpayment of $7 billion.

Before the pandemic, annual SNAP erroneous payments never exceeded $4.2 billion.

The increase was due to increased flexibility granted to states in administering the program, according to Alliance for Opportunity. As states were allowed to let individuals self-attest income, simplify reporting, and take longer certification periods.

California led in the total amount of improper payments, with an estimated $1.4 billion–approximately one in every nine dollars was sent out incorrectly.

New York followed closely, tallying $1 billion in improper disbursements, with roughly one in every seven dollars being sent wrong.

Florida reported improper payments totaling $990.8 million, with an error rate of 15 percent.

Only payment errors greater than $56 per household were included in the error rate. However, all errors will be tallied in 2026 thanks to a provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Since the program’s establishment in 1964, the federal government has fully funded SNAP benefits. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states with payment error rates above 6 percent will pay a cost share that covers 5 percent to 15 percent of benefits.

Most states will begin paying a state match if their error rates remain the same.

Fraud

SNAP has a significant amount of fraud, according to Robert Rector, senior researcher at The Heritage Foundation. “The [reported] error rates are false and ridiculously low,” he said.

In some cases, recipients don’t accurately report their income. There is an incentive to do so because the benefit is keyed to income level. Those who earn less receive higher amounts of aid.

Inaccurate counting of household members also contributes to fraudulent payments, according to Rector, who notes that the number of single mothers receiving SNAP benefits is about 35 percent higher than the number of single mothers in the country, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Work Requirements

“There are about 4 million people on food stamps that are called able-bodied adults without dependents,” Rector told The Epoch Times.

Congress changed the program’s work requirement rule in July. States are now implementing new guidelines to comply with the changes.

Able-bodied adults without dependents are required to work, volunteer, or take part in training at least 20 hours a week, or 80 hours per month, to maintain their SNAP benefits.

Older people are granted an exemption from this requirement, but the age limit for the exemption is increasing from 54 to 64.

Generally, people ages 18 through 64 must meet this requirement to receive SNAP benefits for more than three months in any 36-month period.

Work can be something done in exchange for money, goods, or services.

Growth of Social Programs

President Lyndon Johnson introduced his vision to build a Great Society for the American people in 1963.

Over the next several years, Congress passed landmark legislation to social welfare programs that are still in place, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Food Stamps.

Those programs have been expanded over the years, and others have been added, including Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Low Income Energy Assistance Program, Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, federal housing assistance, student loans and grants, and many others.

Federal spending on all social welfare programs, measured as a percentage of gross domestic product, rose from 0.27 percent in 1962 to 3.8 percent in 2024. That’s an increase of more than 1,250 percent.

The federal poverty level fell by about 50 percent between 1962 and 2000, but remains about 11 percent today.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 22:35

Wall Street Sees Hegseth's Pentagon Procurement Overhaul As "Wake-Up Call" For Prime Contractors

Zero Hedge -

Wall Street Sees Hegseth's Pentagon Procurement Overhaul As "Wake-Up Call" For Prime Contractors

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's sweeping reforms to secure "drone domain dominance" by 2027 are accelerating, following a Reuters report last week that the U.S. Army plans to acquire at least one million drones in the coming years.

The initiative, driven by the Pentagon's DOGE modernization team, marks a major shift toward a new generation of lean, agile defense firms, breaking from the legacy industrial-military complex plagued by chronic cost overruns, schedule delays, and ballooning backlogs. Wall Street analysts are calling the pivot a watershed moment for the Pentagon's procurement system, signaling the most significant overhaul of U.S. defense acquisition strategy in decades.

According to a memo obtained by Bloomberg News, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is preparing to launch a new "economic defense unit" to issue updated contracting guidelines and a "playbook of modern commercial contract and agreement structures."

"These large defense primes need to change to focus on speed and volume, and invest their own capital to get there," Hegseth said in a recent speech, adding, "If they do not, those big ones will fade away."

Here's a roundup of the latest commentary from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg) offering their take on the Pentagon's sweeping procurement pivot:

Bernstein (Douglas S. Harned):

  • Called the speech "the most aggressive yet" on defense-acquisition reform, warning that large, established primes may face challenges after years of tailoring their operations to legacy processes. Harned expects newer, commercially oriented defense firms to be near-term winners, given the department's bias toward off-the-shelf, agile solutions.

Melius Research (Scott Mikus):

  • Said Hegseth's memo and remarks should serve as a wake-up call for both primes and suppliers. The planned drive to heighten competition threatens to erode the value of proprietary intellectual property that major contractors have long relied on for pricing power.

Truist Securities (Michael Ciarmoli):

  • Observed that this time "feels different," citing urgency to field next-generation technology and avoid lagging adversaries. Legacy contractors are "in the crosshairs," while nimble entrants "sit in the catbird seat." The effort will dismantle rigid Pentagon bureaucracy and force the industry to overhaul its own business models.

TD Cowen (Roman Schweizer):

  • Noted that Hegseth criticized big primes for cost overruns, schedule slips, and bloated backlogs, urging them to assume more risk and boost internal R&D and capital spending. He concluded that the remarks signal "significant and sweeping changes" to weapons development, procurement, and the broader defense-industrial landscape.

All the talk about modernizing the Pentagon’s procurement system is very encouraging, but it won’t mean much without a major reshoring or friendshoring of supply chains for critical semiconductors and rare earth minerals, the lifeblood of next-generation drones, fifth-generation attack aircraft, night vision, and the list goes on and on. Without securing these inputs, America’s odds of achieving true battlefield dominance in the 2030s remain up in the air. Time to put reshoring into hyperdrive. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 22:10

Wall Street Sees Hegseth's Pentagon Procurement Overhaul As "Wake-Up Call" For Prime Contractors

Zero Hedge -

Wall Street Sees Hegseth's Pentagon Procurement Overhaul As "Wake-Up Call" For Prime Contractors

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's sweeping reforms to secure "drone domain dominance" by 2027 are accelerating, following a Reuters report last week that the U.S. Army plans to acquire at least one million drones in the coming years.

The initiative, driven by the Pentagon's DOGE modernization team, marks a major shift toward a new generation of lean, agile defense firms, breaking from the legacy industrial-military complex plagued by chronic cost overruns, schedule delays, and ballooning backlogs. Wall Street analysts are calling the pivot a watershed moment for the Pentagon's procurement system, signaling the most significant overhaul of U.S. defense acquisition strategy in decades.

According to a memo obtained by Bloomberg News, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is preparing to launch a new "economic defense unit" to issue updated contracting guidelines and a "playbook of modern commercial contract and agreement structures."

"These large defense primes need to change to focus on speed and volume, and invest their own capital to get there," Hegseth said in a recent speech, adding, "If they do not, those big ones will fade away."

Here's a roundup of the latest commentary from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg) offering their take on the Pentagon's sweeping procurement pivot:

Bernstein (Douglas S. Harned):

  • Called the speech "the most aggressive yet" on defense-acquisition reform, warning that large, established primes may face challenges after years of tailoring their operations to legacy processes. Harned expects newer, commercially oriented defense firms to be near-term winners, given the department's bias toward off-the-shelf, agile solutions.

Melius Research (Scott Mikus):

  • Said Hegseth's memo and remarks should serve as a wake-up call for both primes and suppliers. The planned drive to heighten competition threatens to erode the value of proprietary intellectual property that major contractors have long relied on for pricing power.

Truist Securities (Michael Ciarmoli):

  • Observed that this time "feels different," citing urgency to field next-generation technology and avoid lagging adversaries. Legacy contractors are "in the crosshairs," while nimble entrants "sit in the catbird seat." The effort will dismantle rigid Pentagon bureaucracy and force the industry to overhaul its own business models.

TD Cowen (Roman Schweizer):

  • Noted that Hegseth criticized big primes for cost overruns, schedule slips, and bloated backlogs, urging them to assume more risk and boost internal R&D and capital spending. He concluded that the remarks signal "significant and sweeping changes" to weapons development, procurement, and the broader defense-industrial landscape.

All the talk about modernizing the Pentagon’s procurement system is very encouraging, but it won’t mean much without a major reshoring or friendshoring of supply chains for critical semiconductors and rare earth minerals, the lifeblood of next-generation drones, fifth-generation attack aircraft, night vision, and the list goes on and on. Without securing these inputs, America’s odds of achieving true battlefield dominance in the 2030s remain up in the air. Time to put reshoring into hyperdrive. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 22:10

Lukoil Declares Force Majeure At Major Iraqi Oil Field Due To New US Sanctions

Zero Hedge -

Lukoil Declares Force Majeure At Major Iraqi Oil Field Due To New US Sanctions

Via The Cradle

Russian energy corporation Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq's West Qurna-2 oil field as a result of US sanctions on the firm, four sources told Reuters on Monday. 

"Iraq has halted all cash and crude payments to Lukoil," the sources said. The Russian energy firm operated Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field, which produces 480,000 barrels per day (bpd). 

Image source: Reuters 

Lukoil holds a 75 percent stake in the field, one of the largest in the world. It also holds a 50 percent stake in Egypt’s West Esh El-Mallaha (WEEM) oil fields and a 10 percent stake in the UAE offshore Ghasha project, while maintaining a network across Europe and Central Asia.

The report comes as the energy firm has been suffering significant disruptions in its operations due to recent US sanctions. 

Romania and Bulgaria have been scrambling to protect Russian-owned oil refineries from shutdowns before the US sanctions take effect. 

Bulgaria has proposed a bill that would allow its government to appoint a manager of the Lukoil-owned Burgas refinery, granting them powers to take operational control of the facility, approve its sale, and potentially nationalize it.

The US Treasury Department announced the sanctions last month, targeting Lukoil and another major Russian oil company, Rosneft. The sanctions were imposed as part of a US bid to pressure Russia in Ukraine talks, which reached a stalemate earlier this year. 

This coincided with an announcement by Swiss commodity trader Gunvor that it has withdrawn a proposal to buy Lukoil’s foreign assets. The US Treasury had accused Gunvor of being a Russian “puppet,” and expressed Washington’s opposition to the deal. 

“We believe that all legitimate interests of a major international company, including a Russian one, like Lukoil, in terms of international trade and economic relations, must be respected,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to the move. 

Via Forbes

Lukoil was forced to sell many of its foreign assets after the US sanctions last month, which caused a surge in global oil prices. The sanctions froze all Rosneft and Lukoil assets in the US, while US companies and individuals will be barred from doing business with them.

Washington is also threatening secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions that do business with the two Russian energy firms, including banks that facilitate sales of Russian oil in China, India, and Turkiye.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 21:45

Lukoil Declares Force Majeure At Major Iraqi Oil Field Due To New US Sanctions

Zero Hedge -

Lukoil Declares Force Majeure At Major Iraqi Oil Field Due To New US Sanctions

Via The Cradle

Russian energy corporation Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq's West Qurna-2 oil field as a result of US sanctions on the firm, four sources told Reuters on Monday. 

"Iraq has halted all cash and crude payments to Lukoil," the sources said. The Russian energy firm operated Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field, which produces 480,000 barrels per day (bpd). 

Image source: Reuters 

Lukoil holds a 75 percent stake in the field, one of the largest in the world. It also holds a 50 percent stake in Egypt’s West Esh El-Mallaha (WEEM) oil fields and a 10 percent stake in the UAE offshore Ghasha project, while maintaining a network across Europe and Central Asia.

The report comes as the energy firm has been suffering significant disruptions in its operations due to recent US sanctions. 

Romania and Bulgaria have been scrambling to protect Russian-owned oil refineries from shutdowns before the US sanctions take effect. 

Bulgaria has proposed a bill that would allow its government to appoint a manager of the Lukoil-owned Burgas refinery, granting them powers to take operational control of the facility, approve its sale, and potentially nationalize it.

The US Treasury Department announced the sanctions last month, targeting Lukoil and another major Russian oil company, Rosneft. The sanctions were imposed as part of a US bid to pressure Russia in Ukraine talks, which reached a stalemate earlier this year. 

This coincided with an announcement by Swiss commodity trader Gunvor that it has withdrawn a proposal to buy Lukoil’s foreign assets. The US Treasury had accused Gunvor of being a Russian “puppet,” and expressed Washington’s opposition to the deal. 

“We believe that all legitimate interests of a major international company, including a Russian one, like Lukoil, in terms of international trade and economic relations, must be respected,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to the move. 

Via Forbes

Lukoil was forced to sell many of its foreign assets after the US sanctions last month, which caused a surge in global oil prices. The sanctions froze all Rosneft and Lukoil assets in the US, while US companies and individuals will be barred from doing business with them.

Washington is also threatening secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions that do business with the two Russian energy firms, including banks that facilitate sales of Russian oil in China, India, and Turkiye.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 21:45

"Motivated To Get Income And End Their Housing Crisis": Homeless Job Training Spikes 38% In San Diego

Zero Hedge -

"Motivated To Get Income And End Their Housing Crisis": Homeless Job Training Spikes 38% In San Diego

San Diego’s Father Joe’s Villages reports a sharp rise in job training completions through its Gene Burkard Employment and Education Services program, which helps people experiencing homelessness or housing insecurity re-enter the workforce, CBS 8 reported last week.

Father Joe’s Villages is one of Southern California’s largest and most well-known homeless services organizations, based in San Diego, California. Founded in 1950 by Father Joe Carroll, a Catholic priest known for his hands-on approach to addressing homelessness, the organization provides a comprehensive network of housing, healthcare, job training, and social services for people experiencing homelessness or at risk of losing housing. Its mission is to help individuals and families “end homelessness one life at a time.”

“We've seen a significant increase — about 38 percent — in completion of our job training programs compared to last year," said Chief Client Services Officer Jesse Casement. "And it's not just in our retail training program, it's in our training programs across the board. We believe what's driving that is really just our clients feeling inspired and really motivated to go out there and get income so that they can quickly end their housing crisis.”

CBS writes that the nonprofit offers several training paths, including retail, culinary arts, maintenance and facilities mentorship, forklift certification, and a relaunched “Restart Property Management” program.

“Our employment and education services team is made up of instructors and also employment specialists, and their job is to connect with employers out in the community that are excited to hire people that are working with us at Father Joe's Villages," Casement said.

As San Diego continues to face a homelessness crisis, Father Joe’s job training programs remain a key step toward helping individuals rebuild stability and secure long-term housing.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 21:20

CoreWeave Tumbles After Slashing Revenue Forecast

Zero Hedge -

CoreWeave Tumbles After Slashing Revenue Forecast

When Coreweave IPOed at the end of March, many wondered just how successful this former cryptocurrency miner turned GPU renter, would be in the long-term. Those questions were magnified after the close, when the stock of Coreweave slumped after the company slashed its annual revenue forecast after suffering a delay fulfilling a customer contract, marking a setback for a company that is racing to keep up with the artificial intelligence boom.

The company's Q3 earnings were solid enough, generating $1.37 billion in revenue, above the median consensus of $1.28 billion, translating in a 22c per share loss (better than the 39c loss expected). But it was its guidance announced during a post-earnings conference call on Monday that slammed the stock 6% lower and back under $100: Coreweave now sees sales in 2025 between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion, a drop from a range which had previously been as high as $5.35 billion.

The company said that its revenue backlog stood at $55.6 billion at the close of the quarter, almost twice the level of the previous period, although as Oracle's recent slide demonstrated, such pie in the sky numbers are increasingly ignored by investors who are starting to demand results today, not in the years to come. 

“We are affected by temporary delays related to a third-party data center developer who is behind schedule,” CEO Michael Intrator said during the call. Though the fourth-quarter results will reflect the snag, the client affected by the delay has agreed to adjust delivery schedules so “we maintain the total value of the original contract,” he said.

According to Bloomberg, the disappointing guidance "underscores the challenges of meeting the insatiable demand for AI." Delays getting more AI computing capacity online are persistent across the industry, Intrator said in a BBG interview. And while CoreWeave was able to preserve the value of the contract, no one was happy about it.

“Everybody is frustrated — the data center provider is frustrated, we’re frustrated, the client is frustrated,” he said, while declining to name the parties involved. “For that matter, people who are waiting for the next iteration of AI are frustrated.”

The company is trying to make sure it has the right staff on site at various projects to catch issues early, Intrator said. “We’re doing all the right things. It’s just a challenging environment.”

Part of a group of companies known as neoclouds, CoreWeave rents out access to powerful AI chips. High demand for its services has pushed CoreWeave to rapidly expand its data centers and equip them with the latest gear. It’s also sought to diversify its customer base after years of depending heavily on Microsoft.

In September, CoreWeave announced an agreement to sell as much as $14.2 billion in computing power to Meta Platforms. Microsoft had accounted for 71% of CoreWeave’s revenue in the quarter that ended in June.

CoreWeave also made a recent attempt to acquire Core Scientific (another crypto miner), a partner and fellow data center operator. That bid was rejected by Core Scientific shareholders last month over concerns that the offer undervalued the business. 

CoreWeave said it would move forward without making the purchase and even announced a different, smaller acquisition within minutes of the deal failing.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 20:05

CoreWeave Tumbles After Slashing Revenue Forecast

Zero Hedge -

CoreWeave Tumbles After Slashing Revenue Forecast

When Coreweave IPOed at the end of March, many wondered just how successful this former cryptocurrency miner turned GPU renter, would be in the long-term. Those questions were magnified after the close, when the stock of Coreweave slumped after the company slashed its annual revenue forecast after suffering a delay fulfilling a customer contract, marking a setback for a company that is racing to keep up with the artificial intelligence boom.

The company's Q3 earnings were solid enough, generating $1.37 billion in revenue, above the median consensus of $1.28 billion, translating in a 22c per share loss (better than the 39c loss expected). But it was its guidance announced during a post-earnings conference call on Monday that slammed the stock 6% lower and back under $100: Coreweave now sees sales in 2025 between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion, a drop from a range which had previously been as high as $5.35 billion.

The company said that its revenue backlog stood at $55.6 billion at the close of the quarter, almost twice the level of the previous period, although as Oracle's recent slide demonstrated, such pie in the sky numbers are increasingly ignored by investors who are starting to demand results today, not in the years to come. 

“We are affected by temporary delays related to a third-party data center developer who is behind schedule,” CEO Michael Intrator said during the call. Though the fourth-quarter results will reflect the snag, the client affected by the delay has agreed to adjust delivery schedules so “we maintain the total value of the original contract,” he said.

According to Bloomberg, the disappointing guidance "underscores the challenges of meeting the insatiable demand for AI." Delays getting more AI computing capacity online are persistent across the industry, Intrator said in a BBG interview. And while CoreWeave was able to preserve the value of the contract, no one was happy about it.

“Everybody is frustrated — the data center provider is frustrated, we’re frustrated, the client is frustrated,” he said, while declining to name the parties involved. “For that matter, people who are waiting for the next iteration of AI are frustrated.”

The company is trying to make sure it has the right staff on site at various projects to catch issues early, Intrator said. “We’re doing all the right things. It’s just a challenging environment.”

Part of a group of companies known as neoclouds, CoreWeave rents out access to powerful AI chips. High demand for its services has pushed CoreWeave to rapidly expand its data centers and equip them with the latest gear. It’s also sought to diversify its customer base after years of depending heavily on Microsoft.

In September, CoreWeave announced an agreement to sell as much as $14.2 billion in computing power to Meta Platforms. Microsoft had accounted for 71% of CoreWeave’s revenue in the quarter that ended in June.

CoreWeave also made a recent attempt to acquire Core Scientific (another crypto miner), a partner and fellow data center operator. That bid was rejected by Core Scientific shareholders last month over concerns that the offer undervalued the business. 

CoreWeave said it would move forward without making the purchase and even announced a different, smaller acquisition within minutes of the deal failing.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 20:05

Tuesday: Veterans Day

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Edge Higher But Remain in November Range
Bond markets are closed tomorrow for Veterans Day. When markets reopen on Wednesday, the prospects for ending the government shutdown may be coming into clearer view and that could cause enough market volatility to spill over into rates. If today's trading was any clue, a "reopening" event is more likely to put upward pressure on rates, but today's rate increase could already be reflecting those expectations. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

Florida Attorney General Probes JPMorgan Over Cooperation With "Arctic Frost" While Debanking Trumpworld

Zero Hedge -

Florida Attorney General Probes JPMorgan Over Cooperation With "Arctic Frost" While Debanking Trumpworld

While JPMorgan didn't debank Jeffrey Epstein despite a mountain of evidence he was engaged in sex-trafficking, the bank is now under fire from Florida officials over its cooperation with the Biden DOJ's anti-Trump investigation known as “Arctic Frost,” - providing sensitive banking information to Biden prosecutor Jack Smith. 

On Monday, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier notified JPMorgan Chase that his office has opened an inquiry into the bank’s actions involving Trump Media & Technology Group, the Florida-based operator of Truth Social. The Daily Wire first reported the development.

In a letter sent to JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, Uthmeier said the state has “grave concerns” about the bank’s conduct and its handling of sensitive customer information. The move follows disclosures from the Senate Judiciary Committee indicating that Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Arctic Frost probe issued subpoenas to hundreds of Republican individuals and entities.

“I write to express grave concerns about the explosive revelations regarding the Biden Administration’s pursuit of its political adversaries, and [JPMorgan Chase’s] ensuing actions in the shadow of this operation, codenamed ‘Arctic Frost,’” Uthmeier said in the letter.

According to Uthmeier, the Biden Justice Department subpoenaed JPMorgan on March 28, 2023, requesting any and all records involving Trump Media - including documents predating the company’s existence. The letter alleges the administration sought sensitive banking information from Florida-based individuals and entities, including Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

Uthmeier told The Daily Wire he suspects JPMorgan provided the Justice Department with information connected to what he described as “malicious prosecutions,” and also questioned whether the bank had asked Trump Media for information unrelated to normal business practices.

JPMorgan told shareholders last week it was responding to requests from “government authorities and other external parties regarding, among other things, the firm’s policies and processes and the provision of services to customers and potential customers,” language Uthmeier views as an apparent reference to debanking. Former President Donald Trump signed an executive order in August directing regulators to examine whether financial institutions have engaged in “politicized or unlawful debanking.”

Uthmeier’s letter says that after the Justice Department’s actions began, JPMorgan pressed Trump Media for details on years-old transactions, claiming the requests were part of due diligence. The attorney general said those inquiries “appear to be pretextual and unrelated to their stated purpose.”

The attorney general also noted that immediately after Trump Media completed a merger in March 2024, JPMorgan notified the company that its accounts were being closed. Uthmeier said the timing raises “obvious, troubling questions.”

“This activity may implicate numerous Florida criminal and civil anti-fraud laws and de-banking prohibitions, as well as a breach of the basic, fundamental duties owed to your banking customers,” he wrote. The attorney general ordered the Office of Statewide Prosecution and Enforcement Division to begin investigating and directed JPMorgan to initiate a litigation hold to preserve documents.

Uthmeier told The Daily Wire he views the matter as part of a broader pattern. “We think it’s wrong that companies were just coughing things up to the Department of Justice when there was not real probable cause, and we think it’s wrong that companies are debanked, especially at such important times,” he said. “We protect Florida-based companies like Trump Media Group. We protect our consumers and where there’s discriminatory banking practices taking place, especially those with intent to harm, we will fight back and hold wrongdoers accountable.”

He also suggested the matter may intersect with Smith’s January 6 investigation. Truth Social launched in February 2022, more than a year after the events of January 6, 2021. “Any notion that this company was somehow involved in whatever criminal activity that the Department of Justice alleged, wrongfully alleged, surrounded the J6 events,” he said. “Clearly, Truth Social would not have been a part of that.”

“It shows the full scope of the weaponization and the efforts to go after anybody related to Trump or the conservative cause.”

Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and a former congressman, raised similar concerns on Fox News on Sunday. “One would think that Trump Media would not have been caught up into Arctic Frost at all, largely because…we just became a public company in 2024 and we were nowhere around in 2021,” he said. “So why would Trump Media be subpoenaed at that time during this investigation? It doesn’t make any sense.”

Nunes also questioned the bank’s cooperation. “Should [JPMorgan Chase] have complied with this, knowing that we weren’t around? They had to know that our company wasn’t around on January 6. We were never notified…did this break laws in the state of Florida?”

He argued the bank “inexplicably” closed Trump Media’s accounts “right at the time we were going public,” and “right at the height of the campaign,” calling the move political and increasingly suspicious in light of the Arctic Frost revelations.

Amazing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 19:40

Florida Attorney General Probes JPMorgan Over Cooperation With "Arctic Frost" While Debanking Trumpworld

Zero Hedge -

Florida Attorney General Probes JPMorgan Over Cooperation With "Arctic Frost" While Debanking Trumpworld

While JPMorgan didn't debank Jeffrey Epstein despite a mountain of evidence he was engaged in sex-trafficking, the bank is now under fire from Florida officials over its cooperation with the Biden DOJ's anti-Trump investigation known as “Arctic Frost,” - providing sensitive banking information to Biden prosecutor Jack Smith. 

On Monday, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier notified JPMorgan Chase that his office has opened an inquiry into the bank’s actions involving Trump Media & Technology Group, the Florida-based operator of Truth Social. The Daily Wire first reported the development.

In a letter sent to JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, Uthmeier said the state has “grave concerns” about the bank’s conduct and its handling of sensitive customer information. The move follows disclosures from the Senate Judiciary Committee indicating that Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Arctic Frost probe issued subpoenas to hundreds of Republican individuals and entities.

“I write to express grave concerns about the explosive revelations regarding the Biden Administration’s pursuit of its political adversaries, and [JPMorgan Chase’s] ensuing actions in the shadow of this operation, codenamed ‘Arctic Frost,’” Uthmeier said in the letter.

According to Uthmeier, the Biden Justice Department subpoenaed JPMorgan on March 28, 2023, requesting any and all records involving Trump Media - including documents predating the company’s existence. The letter alleges the administration sought sensitive banking information from Florida-based individuals and entities, including Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

Uthmeier told The Daily Wire he suspects JPMorgan provided the Justice Department with information connected to what he described as “malicious prosecutions,” and also questioned whether the bank had asked Trump Media for information unrelated to normal business practices.

JPMorgan told shareholders last week it was responding to requests from “government authorities and other external parties regarding, among other things, the firm’s policies and processes and the provision of services to customers and potential customers,” language Uthmeier views as an apparent reference to debanking. Former President Donald Trump signed an executive order in August directing regulators to examine whether financial institutions have engaged in “politicized or unlawful debanking.”

Uthmeier’s letter says that after the Justice Department’s actions began, JPMorgan pressed Trump Media for details on years-old transactions, claiming the requests were part of due diligence. The attorney general said those inquiries “appear to be pretextual and unrelated to their stated purpose.”

The attorney general also noted that immediately after Trump Media completed a merger in March 2024, JPMorgan notified the company that its accounts were being closed. Uthmeier said the timing raises “obvious, troubling questions.”

“This activity may implicate numerous Florida criminal and civil anti-fraud laws and de-banking prohibitions, as well as a breach of the basic, fundamental duties owed to your banking customers,” he wrote. The attorney general ordered the Office of Statewide Prosecution and Enforcement Division to begin investigating and directed JPMorgan to initiate a litigation hold to preserve documents.

Uthmeier told The Daily Wire he views the matter as part of a broader pattern. “We think it’s wrong that companies were just coughing things up to the Department of Justice when there was not real probable cause, and we think it’s wrong that companies are debanked, especially at such important times,” he said. “We protect Florida-based companies like Trump Media Group. We protect our consumers and where there’s discriminatory banking practices taking place, especially those with intent to harm, we will fight back and hold wrongdoers accountable.”

He also suggested the matter may intersect with Smith’s January 6 investigation. Truth Social launched in February 2022, more than a year after the events of January 6, 2021. “Any notion that this company was somehow involved in whatever criminal activity that the Department of Justice alleged, wrongfully alleged, surrounded the J6 events,” he said. “Clearly, Truth Social would not have been a part of that.”

“It shows the full scope of the weaponization and the efforts to go after anybody related to Trump or the conservative cause.”

Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and a former congressman, raised similar concerns on Fox News on Sunday. “One would think that Trump Media would not have been caught up into Arctic Frost at all, largely because…we just became a public company in 2024 and we were nowhere around in 2021,” he said. “So why would Trump Media be subpoenaed at that time during this investigation? It doesn’t make any sense.”

Nunes also questioned the bank’s cooperation. “Should [JPMorgan Chase] have complied with this, knowing that we weren’t around? They had to know that our company wasn’t around on January 6. We were never notified…did this break laws in the state of Florida?”

He argued the bank “inexplicably” closed Trump Media’s accounts “right at the time we were going public,” and “right at the height of the campaign,” calling the move political and increasingly suspicious in light of the Arctic Frost revelations.

Amazing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 19:40

After Crushing Prop 50 Defeat, California GOP Turns To The Courts

Zero Hedge -

After Crushing Prop 50 Defeat, California GOP Turns To The Courts

Authored by Susan Crabtree via American Greatness,

California Republicans appeared down but not out on Wednesday after enduring a resounding defeat on Prop 50, handing Democrats a potential gain of up to five House seats in next year’s midterms and giving Gov. Gavin Newsom a huge win to boost his 2028 presidential ambitions.

California GOP Chairwoman Corrin Rankin filed a federal lawsuit Wednesday seeking to immediately block and ultimately cast aside the newly approved map of state congressional seats, which passed in Tuesday’s election by roughly 28 percentage points. With 77% of the estimated vote total counted in California, the redistricting measure was ahead 63.9% to 36.1%.

Brushing off calls for her resignation from a few influential conservative voices and enduring ridicule from Newsom, Rankin forged ahead, arguing in the GOP lawsuit that the new map illegally uses race as a factor to favor Latino voters, thereby violating the Constitution’s equal protection and voting rights guarantees.

“This is about the Constitution – it’s about the rights that our ancestors have fought so hard for in this country,” Rankin, the first African-American to chair the state GOP, said at a Wednesday morning press conference.

“It’s about sticking with the Constitution, and it’s about equality and fair and equal treatment. And we believe that Californians, no matter what color your skin is, no matter what your socio-economic background is, you deserve to be treated fair. You deserve to be treated equally.”

Newsom’s office provided a snarky response to the lawsuit, noting that they hadn’t reviewed it yet but commenting, “Good luck, losers.”

Proposition 50 tossed the state’s U.S. House district maps, which were drawn by an independent commission in a lengthy deliberative process after the decennial census, and replaced it with new maps quickly drawn by Democratic lawmakers and their consultant, Paul Mitchell. The voter-approved gerrymander was designed to neutralize a GOP-favoring redistricting plan in Texas.

The lawsuit was filed by the Dhillon Law Group, a California-based firm founded by Harmeet Dhillon, who now serves as assistant attorney general for civil rights at the Department of Justice. It argues that the new map-making process was rushed and didn’t follow the multi-step process required. The attorneys cited the 1986 Supreme Court case Thornburg v. Gingles, which established a three-pronged test based on the Voting Rights Act, including a written analysis of the current maps showing voter dilution of minority groups when redistricting.

Mike Columbo, the attorney who drew up the complaint on behalf of the California Republican Party, pointed to comments Mitchell and Democratic leaders in the legislature made that the redistricted maps “increase [the] power of Latino voters.”

The attorneys asked for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to prevent Prop 50’s maps from going into effect. The lawsuit requires both sides to submit evidence to a three-judge panel; whoever loses that argument will appeal to the Supreme Court, which they predicted would need to make a decision by Dec. 19 so candidates for Congress can determine which districts they want to run in. That’s the deadline that candidates can begin collecting signatures to offset filing fees for the 2026 midterms.

Already, the new maps are setting off a scramble by Democratic candidates and incumbent House Republicans who are evaluating which district best suits them. In at least one case, the redrawn maps are already forcing sitting GOP members into contentious face-offs in a survival of the fittest contest for the competitive Republican districts.

Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving California Republican in the House, announced he would challenge incumbent Rep. Young Kim for Californian’s redrawn 40th district, which was gerrymandered as safe for Republicans, while Calvert’s was redrawn to favor Democrats.

Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic San Diego city councilmember who turned the city’s most conservative district blue in 2020, announced she would challenge longtime GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, an 11-term incumbent.

Republican Kevin Lincoln, former mayor of Stockton, who already announced a rematch against Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, whom he lost to in 2024, is now eyeing switching districts and challenging Rep. Adam Gray, whose district under the new map is gerrymandered to include part of Stockton’s downtown.

State Assemblyman David Tangipa, a rising star in the state GOP, accused Newsom and state Democrats of weaponizing the redistricting process and diminishing the voices of some demographics to benefit Latinos.

Lauding California’s ethnic diversity as “beautiful,” Tangipa said he is “appalled by what has happened.”

“This whole process was a sham,” he said.

In the 24 hours after Prop 50 passed, Newsom focused his messaging on President Trump, arguing the big win “sends a powerful message” to his longtime political foe, casting it as a “repudiation” of Trump and a victory for the Democratic Party.

“What a night for the Democratic Party – a party that is in ascendency, a party that’s on its toes, no longer on its heels,” he said at a midnight press conference after the win.

Meanwhile, Rankin, who was elected to chair the California GOP in March, rejected calls for her to step down, arguing the party did everything it could to defeat the measure in a short time frame.

She pushed back against intra-party criticism that the California GOP botched the campaign against Prop 50 and defended the party’s get-out-the-vote efforts.

State Assemblyman Carl DeMaio, who has spent years heading the grassroots group Reform California, complained that the party sent out expensive direct mail pieces that were not targeted daily or at all to Republicans who had yet to vote.

“During the last three weeks of the ‘No on 50’ campaign, the California Republican Party raised and spent $11 million, and we left it all on the field,” she said. “We did a robust mail program. Our job is to message Republicans and make sure Republicans are turning out. We sent out 10 mailers, we spent millions on digital ads, on YouTube ads, and a text-messaging campaign.

“I think we did an excellent job – I’m very proud of our grassroots effort. All of our central committees throughout California were getting out the vote every single weekend. We were phone-banking every weekend. We were door-knocking every weekend … everyone worked incredibly hard.”

Asked about the non-targeted expensive mail campaign, Rankin said she is planning an “after-action” report.

DeMaio and Mike Netter, who co-chair Rebuild California, argue the party squandered the more than $11 million it spent on the effort on expensive direct mail pieces that blanketed the GOP instead of a targeted texting campaign focused on Republicans who had yet to vote and should have updated that list on a daily, if not hourly basis.

Netter, a plaintiff in the CA GOP’s new lawsuit challenging the new maps,  told RealClearPolitics that he received a direct mail piece from the California GOP the day after the election.

When it comes to the texting campaign, most Republicans across the state didn’t receive a text from the California GOP, but they did receive at least one from Demaio and his Reform California group. One explanation is that the California GOP was texting only those who had opted in to receive texts from the party, while other groups were using cell phone numbers culled from the voting rolls to blanket all registered Republicans.

Both DeMaio and Netter said the “No on Prop 50” messaging was disparate and uncoordinated, with no nationally recognized figure leading it.

Newsom, Netter told RCP, used Prop 50 as a distraction to avoid talking about his record on the real issues in California, high gas prices and cost of living, homelessness, and crime. Newsom had a singular and jarring message: Stop Trump, while the “No” side tried to use logic and reasoning.

“Gavin Newsom, by creating all these car wrecks, is taking everybody’s attention off the fact that the car is defective to begin with,” Netter said. “Newsom staged a car wreck called Prop 50, to take everybody’s eye off the fact that what we voted on last night will not affect our daily lives one bit.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 19:15

Polar Blast Sweeps Across U.S. East, Unleashing First Snow Of Season

Zero Hedge -

Polar Blast Sweeps Across U.S. East, Unleashing First Snow Of Season

Global-warming alarmists and their Democratic Party allies, brainwashed by the globalist climate-hoax cult, are likely scratching their heads as Monday morning gets underway. 

A winter jacket is now a must-have today across two-thirds of the U.S., as an Arctic blast breaking off from the polar vortex over Canada pours frigid air deep into the Lower 48, blanketing parts of the Midwest in snow.

The latest from the National Weather Service shows more than 105 million people are under advisories, watches, and warnings on freezing conditions, winter weather, and lake effect snow.

By late Monday, early Tuesday, the cold blast could send parts of the Miami region into the 30s and 40s and feel even chillier. Record lows are expected across Birmingham, Tupelo, and several Tennessee cities, including Knoxville, Memphis, and Nashville. Afternoon highs throughout the region will run 10 to 25 degrees below normal.

Snow is forecast from the Great Lakes through New England and into northern New York, extending as far south as the mountains of eastern North Carolina by Monday morning and Tuesday. Some areas of Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and West Virginia could see 12 to 18 inches of accumulation.

ZeroHedge readers have known about the incoming cold blast for nearly a week:

The cold blast even attracted the attention of Goldman analyst Ranald Falconer, who told clients:

White Christmas? I went down a bit of a rabbit hole this morning reading about the potential for a weakening Polar Vortex and its impact on winter weather this year. I had a handful of incoming questions last week about Henry Hub strength and really the main answer was weather related. Russell wrote about this last week on the back of cooler weekend forecasts that brought HDD count higher for the 6-10 day period, that brought the U.S. East briefly colder than their 30 year average. We are now mostly through that period, and the NOAA temperature forecast have the Eastern States above average for the next 2 weeks. Russell made note that the weekly progression forecasts are not overly accurate, so as much as the rally was reactive to this headline, it gives us an indication of what the market and investors want to do heading into winter, rally. This takes me back to my meteorological lesson. The Polar Vortex [PV] is made up of the higher stratospheric level (sitting about 10-30 miles about the earth's surface) and the lower tropospheric level (responsible for the weather events we experience). According to severe-weahter.eu, you can think of the PV as "...a "wall" spinning over and around the polar regions from the surface to the stratosphere, containing the cold polar air inside." When the PV is strong, polar circulation and the jet stream are strong, and the cold air within the vortex is contained. A breakdown or weakening of this vortex allows cold air to escape and have cooling effects on the mid hemisphere regions, Northern US States and North West Europe.

A disruption in the PV is forecast, with higher pressure building over Canada next week, we could see a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) trigger. Most SWW occur in mid to late winter, however this is early. The temperature forecast for early December indicates a potentially strong cold polar air outbreak across the northern, central, and eastern United States. Snowfall forecasts for early December also show a spread from Canada across to the north, north west and north east of the U.S. (The image below is the average long range temperature forecast). In Europe, the same snowfall pattern is being seen in the far north of the Scandis, however with the location of the low-pressure areas, the eastern side of Europe looks like a warmer anomaly. In terms of trading, Henry Hub is on its highs, the desk favour buying Dec puts as insurance if this weather does not materialise. If the cold does come, the market will need to price pulling storage harder and earlier, so front spreads should be in favour. Russell flags that if weather hits then "Z/F/G or Z/F vs H/J both look like they should carry well."

Meanwhile, the 40-day-plus government shutdown has thrown nationwide air travel into chaos, with government-imposed flight restrictions triggering widespread cancellations and delays at major airports. Heavy snow in Chicago is worsening the situation and could cause further disruptions today. The good news is that some Democrats have folded, allowing Republicans to secure the 60 votes needed to advance a bill to reopen the government.

On a personal level, amid the exploding power-bill crisis across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to Democrats and their failed climate agenda that retired stable fossil-fuel power generation and stripped critical capacity from the grid, we bought 1,000 pounds of coal to mix with our wood-burning stoves. We can only imagine Greta saying, "How dare you!" Well, how dare you and the climate-change cult create such instability in the power grid.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 18:50

Polar Blast Sweeps Across U.S. East, Unleashing First Snow Of Season

Zero Hedge -

Polar Blast Sweeps Across U.S. East, Unleashing First Snow Of Season

Global-warming alarmists and their Democratic Party allies, brainwashed by the globalist climate-hoax cult, are likely scratching their heads as Monday morning gets underway. 

A winter jacket is now a must-have today across two-thirds of the U.S., as an Arctic blast breaking off from the polar vortex over Canada pours frigid air deep into the Lower 48, blanketing parts of the Midwest in snow.

The latest from the National Weather Service shows more than 105 million people are under advisories, watches, and warnings on freezing conditions, winter weather, and lake effect snow.

By late Monday, early Tuesday, the cold blast could send parts of the Miami region into the 30s and 40s and feel even chillier. Record lows are expected across Birmingham, Tupelo, and several Tennessee cities, including Knoxville, Memphis, and Nashville. Afternoon highs throughout the region will run 10 to 25 degrees below normal.

Snow is forecast from the Great Lakes through New England and into northern New York, extending as far south as the mountains of eastern North Carolina by Monday morning and Tuesday. Some areas of Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and West Virginia could see 12 to 18 inches of accumulation.

ZeroHedge readers have known about the incoming cold blast for nearly a week:

The cold blast even attracted the attention of Goldman analyst Ranald Falconer, who told clients:

White Christmas? I went down a bit of a rabbit hole this morning reading about the potential for a weakening Polar Vortex and its impact on winter weather this year. I had a handful of incoming questions last week about Henry Hub strength and really the main answer was weather related. Russell wrote about this last week on the back of cooler weekend forecasts that brought HDD count higher for the 6-10 day period, that brought the U.S. East briefly colder than their 30 year average. We are now mostly through that period, and the NOAA temperature forecast have the Eastern States above average for the next 2 weeks. Russell made note that the weekly progression forecasts are not overly accurate, so as much as the rally was reactive to this headline, it gives us an indication of what the market and investors want to do heading into winter, rally. This takes me back to my meteorological lesson. The Polar Vortex [PV] is made up of the higher stratospheric level (sitting about 10-30 miles about the earth's surface) and the lower tropospheric level (responsible for the weather events we experience). According to severe-weahter.eu, you can think of the PV as "...a "wall" spinning over and around the polar regions from the surface to the stratosphere, containing the cold polar air inside." When the PV is strong, polar circulation and the jet stream are strong, and the cold air within the vortex is contained. A breakdown or weakening of this vortex allows cold air to escape and have cooling effects on the mid hemisphere regions, Northern US States and North West Europe.

A disruption in the PV is forecast, with higher pressure building over Canada next week, we could see a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) trigger. Most SWW occur in mid to late winter, however this is early. The temperature forecast for early December indicates a potentially strong cold polar air outbreak across the northern, central, and eastern United States. Snowfall forecasts for early December also show a spread from Canada across to the north, north west and north east of the U.S. (The image below is the average long range temperature forecast). In Europe, the same snowfall pattern is being seen in the far north of the Scandis, however with the location of the low-pressure areas, the eastern side of Europe looks like a warmer anomaly. In terms of trading, Henry Hub is on its highs, the desk favour buying Dec puts as insurance if this weather does not materialise. If the cold does come, the market will need to price pulling storage harder and earlier, so front spreads should be in favour. Russell flags that if weather hits then "Z/F/G or Z/F vs H/J both look like they should carry well."

Meanwhile, the 40-day-plus government shutdown has thrown nationwide air travel into chaos, with government-imposed flight restrictions triggering widespread cancellations and delays at major airports. Heavy snow in Chicago is worsening the situation and could cause further disruptions today. The good news is that some Democrats have folded, allowing Republicans to secure the 60 votes needed to advance a bill to reopen the government.

On a personal level, amid the exploding power-bill crisis across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to Democrats and their failed climate agenda that retired stable fossil-fuel power generation and stripped critical capacity from the grid, we bought 1,000 pounds of coal to mix with our wood-burning stoves. We can only imagine Greta saying, "How dare you!" Well, how dare you and the climate-change cult create such instability in the power grid.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 18:50

The Race For The Trump Economy

Zero Hedge -

The Race For The Trump Economy

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

The current economic indicators, at least those attributable to the 10-month Trump administration, are strong.

Fourth-quarter GDP is estimated to grow between 2.7 and 4 percent, the robust latter figure according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank.

Inflation from June to August ranged from 2.7 to 2.9 percent, significantly lower than the 5 percent annual average during Biden’s 2021-2025 term.

Gas prices now average $2.98 per gallon, compared to $3.46, the average cost during Biden’s four years.

In less than a year, Trump has increased oil production by one million barrels per day.

Unemployment in the second quarter of 2025 stayed steady at 4.2 percent, roughly the same as the 4.1 percent during the final month of Biden’s tenure.

The stock market has reached an all-time high. Foreign investment is pegged at record levels. Tariff revenue could reach $400 billion by the end of the year—vastly outpacing the $77 billion in all of last year, 2024.

In other words, the economy is rolling along.

To the extent the Trump administration has a problem with the economy, however, it is threefold.

One is public perceptions.

In 2021, Biden foolishly borrowed $7 trillion and infused it into the economy at precisely the wrong time. The economy had already been stimulated by Trump’s prior massive lockdown borrowing.

The COVID-19 pandemic was ending. The emerging public was eager to get out, splurge, and satisfy its two-year pent-up consumer demand. And yet supply chains were still disrupted and unable to supply sufficient goods or services.

That perfect storm would ensure that there were too few goods and services for too much cash-flush, inordinate consumer spending.

Despite warnings from even liberal economists that the “stimulus” was a recipe for hyperinflation, Biden—or whoever at that time ran the country—went ahead with his massive borrowing and ensured that inflation would peak at an annual rate of 9.1 percent in 2022.

The mess continued, however, since inflation still kept up in the next two years at 3-4 percent. And when Trump entered office in 2025, goods were over 21 percent higher than when Biden had been inaugurated—with even steeper prices on key staples like energy, groceries, automobiles, housing, and insurance.

Most prices have never gone down. The fact that they have remained high over the last ten months has been blamed on Trump, on the strange rationale that he was supposed to have engineered a deflationary economy in less than a year to lower what Biden recklessly had raised over four years.

The left-wing propaganda is Orwellian:

“Our four-year policies created hyperinflation. Your 10-month antithesis did not. But you are still responsible for not undoing in ten months what we did in 48 months. Therefore, we deserve to return to power to repeat the disaster that we made under Biden.”

Second, the administration and Republicans have rarely compared their own economic record with that of Biden’s dismal four years to explain how there is improvement in almost every area.

Trump’s circle understandably has emphasized its accomplishments on the border, reducing crime, curtailing DEI, restoring military recruitment, and especially in foreign affairs, such as the ruination of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the reenergizing of NATO, the oversight of Israel’s successful wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and achieving ceasefires in conflicts across the globe. These are notable successes. Talk of a Trump Nobel Peace Prize is understandable and warranted.

But the recent off-year elections, albeit in blue states like California, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia, were decided mostly on perceptions of “affordability,” shorthand for the economy.

When independent voters heard little from Republican candidates about the good economic news or of the sharp contrast from the prior Democratic train wreck, they simply bought the left-wing line that the lack of “affordability” was due to the administration in power—that is, Trump.

Third, most of Trump’s key economic initiatives are long-term and will not be fully realized by the end of 2025 or in early to mid-2026.

No one yet knows what the full effects will be of record deregulation and tax cuts by 2026. No administration has ever prompted the deportation of 2 million illegal aliens, as will happen by 2025, with a likely 2 million more in 2026.

Nor does anyone yet know the positive effect on jobs and wages when there are fewer foreign workers undercutting American labor, and even fewer people receiving costly state and federal entitlements.

No one knows what will follow from a record production of nearly 14 million barrels of oil per day, which, with new federal leasing and fewer regulations, may still increase even more in 2026. More federal revenue from leasing and exports? Cheaper natural gas and gasoline for consumers?

No one knows the economic role of a rapidly advancing artificial intelligence industry, with likely huge breakthroughs from robotics to medicine. No one knows the impact of a new generation of smaller micro-nuclear generation stations or more natural-gas power-plants that should provide electricity far more cheaply than massive, state-subsidized wind and solar farms.

No one knows the effect of the massive promised foreign investment. Trump talks confidently of $15 trillion or more promised in foreign investments. If just a third of that sum were to be actualized by late 2026, together with trillions of dollars in new domestic investment, the effect on GDP, unemployment, and federal revenues would be enormous.

Tariffs have caused neither a trade war, stock collapse, nor recession. Instead, the use of tariff threats, jawboning, and deals has resulted so far in little additional inflation, at least if the courts do not intervene.

Again, even downwardly negotiated new tariffs could bring in $400 billion in additional revenue. Far from stuck in a destructive trade war, the U.S. is more likely in 2026 to be in the strongest and most advantageous commercial position with both America’s allies and rivals, like China, in the last half-century.

The left is certainly apprehensive about the prospect of a likely booming pre-midterm Trump economy by November 2026.

The current shutdown, preplanned by Democrats to synchronize with the recent elections, makes no sense given their prior damnation of minority-party shutdowns, their prior serial votes to approve continuing resolutions, and their prior incoherent claims about putting a sunset on massive Obamacare subsidies, which they also once insisted would never be necessary.

So the likely real purpose of the shutdowns is a nihilist effort to slow down or sidetrack the expanding Trump economy—a sort of smaller replay of what the purported “natural” disaster of COVID-19 did to the then-booming 2019 Trump economy that likely cost Trump the 2020 election.

In addition, there is no reason now for the Fed not to lower rates, and far more than the recent paltry 0.25 percent cut. There is neither wild growth nor high inflation, but most certainly a stagnant housing market, high mortgage rates, and natural uncertainty among builders.

For most of 2025, the media has tried to talk the U.S. into a recession—wrongly predicting a March stock market crash, wrongly assuring us of a mid-2025 recession, wrongly maintaining that tariff-borne hyperinflation would bury the economy by fall, and wrongly insisting a disastrous trade war was upon us, one that would crash both the U.S. and Chinese economies.

If the shutdown were quickly ended and the Fed steadily lowered interest rates by at least 2 percent, and if the media would just report the news rather than seek to create realities by falsification, then a strong, and soon to be even more robust, economy would likely determine the 2026 midterms, and with it the Trump presidency.

So the current Trump economy is in a race of sorts.

The challenge is not nature, not war, not the unpredictable, and certainly not wrong economic policies and agendas.

The rub is a failure to highlight the radical improvement from the Biden years in just a few months, to explain that novel policies are already in motion that may revolutionize the American economy within a year, and to recognize the destructive efforts of partisan shutdowns, partisan high interest rates, and partisan hysterical doom and gloom fake news.

If Trump meets these challenges, voters could see the economy take off as never before in 2026—just in time for the midterms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/10/2025 - 18:25

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