Legal Cases Challenging Trump's Agenda - Key Issues To Watch

Authored by Stacy Robinson and Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A flood of litigation continues to hamper President Donald Trump’s agenda, with hundreds of lawsuits challenging his actions on gender issues, tariffs, immigration, National Guard deployment, and other matters.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

A common theme of many lawsuits is the claim that the president has overstepped his executive authority.

Some of the cases have already reached the Supreme Court, where Trump scored a major win in June and a series of wins on the emergency docket.

Eventual decisions on outstanding cases could have long-lasting effects. If Trump wins, he can press forward with his key policies and the court will have carved out a clearer scope of executive power.

Here are some of the key issues, the legal battlegrounds in which they will be fought, hints on how judges might rule, and their implications for the future.

Tariffs, Emergency Economic Powers

Trump’s broad tariff agenda sparked a legal battle that has been heard by the Supreme Court. Judgment is pending.

A group of states and businesses have challenged the tariffs the president imposed on Canada and Mexico over their failure to police drug trafficking and illegal immigration at their borders, as well as the reciprocal tariffs he imposed on scores of other countries.

Trump issued those tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the president to take actions such as regulating imports during a national emergency. Before Trump, presidents had used the law only to impose sanctions.

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled in May that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.

In a separate case in May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s tariffs did not address the issue of drug trafficking, and were therefore unjustified. It also ruled that the IEEPA does not give Trump power to impose “unlimited” tariffs because that power belongs to Congress and has not been delegated to the president.

Those cases eventually reached the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments on Nov. 5 and is yet to issue its decision.

During oral arguments, some justices expressed skepticism that Congress had authorized the type of tariffs Trump imposed.

The Supreme Court is also considering whether the law—if it does, in fact, authorize Trump’s tariffs—upsets the nation’s separation of powers and is therefore unconstitutional.

“Congress, as a practical matter, can’t get this power back once it’s handed it over to the President,” Justice Neil Gorsuch said. “It’s a one-way ratchet toward the gradual, but continual, accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”

At one point during the Nov. 5 hearing, Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh seemed more sympathetic to the administration’s position. They questioned how, as one attorney argued, the law could allow Trump to impose something as large as a complete embargo but not a small tariff.

The U.S. Court of International Trade in New York City on May 29, 2025. The court ruled that the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not give President Donald Trump power to impose “unlimited” tariffs. Spencer Platt/Getty Images National Guard, Posse Comitatus

Citing high crime rates, Trump has attempted to federalize and deploy National Guard troops to major cities across the United States.

Officials in Memphis, Tennessee, welcomed the move, but state and local governments have sued to block the action in Chicago, Washington, Los Angeles, and Portland, Oregon.

The lawsuits challenge Trump’s invocation of Section 12406 of Title 10 of the U.S. Code, which allows presidents to federalize state National Guard troops under certain conditions.

The Trump administration has pointed to two of those conditions in particular: when the president is unable to execute the law using regular forces and when there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion.

Trump’s challengers have found limited success in courts, winning lower court blocks but facing hurdles in the appeals process.

Most recently, Judge Jia Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled on Nov. 20 that the president must end troop deployment in Washington, saying that the president can deploy troops only to address a specific situation, not for “whatever reason” he chooses. She paused that order to give the government time to appeal.

Judges in Oregon and Illinois also blocked Trump’s deployments while expressing doubt that the National Guard was needed to address crime in those areas. And a California judge ruled in September that Trump had violated a law known as the Posse Comitatus Act, which prevents federal troops from engaging in civilian law enforcement.

The administration is appealing each of those cases, and the Illinois ruling has reached the Supreme Court. The court has requested a briefing, asking both sides to clarify their interpretation of the line in Section 12406 stating that the president may call up the National Guard if he is “unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States.”

National Guard members patrol the National Mall in Washington on Aug. 27, 2025. On Nov. 20, Judge Jia Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the president to end the troop deployment, ruling that he may deploy troops for only a specific situation, not “whatever reason” he chooses. She then stayed her order to give the government time to appeal. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Illegal Immigrants

Trump has focused on enforcing immigration laws, including through a ramp-up of deportations.

Previously, expedited removals were reserved for illegal immigrants detained within 100 miles of the U.S. border and within 14 days of illegal entry.

When he took office, Trump expanded rapid deportations to include illegal immigrants nationwide who had been in the country longer than two weeks, but less than two years.

On Jan. 22, advocacy group Make the Road New York sued, arguing that illegal immigrants were being removed without due process. A federal judge blocked the government’s policy in August, and on Nov. 22, a court of appeals declined to put that ruling on hold pending appeal.

Trump’s executive order in January revoking birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants was challenged by numerous plaintiffs across the country. Those challenges were consolidated into Trump v. CASA.

When the case reached the Supreme Court, the justices did not rule on the legality of the executive order or the question of birthright citizenship, but instead ruled that such nationwide blocks—called universal or nationwide injunctions—are likely an abuse of lower courts’ power.

This ruling signaled to lower courts that they should issue such nationwide injunctions against a president’s policies sparingly.

President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in the James S. Brady Briefing Room at the White House on June 27, 2025. Mehmet Eser/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images Alien Enemies Act

Part of Trump’s deportation plan involved using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, which allows swift deportations during an invasion, to remove alleged criminals and transnational gang members from groups such as Tren de Aragua.

Trump invoked that law and used it against the Venezuelan gang in March, but lower courts temporarily blocked the plan in April when a group of deportees sued.

The Supreme Court at first upheld the block, but later ruled that the Venezuelan plaintiffs were each required to bring a habeas petition individually challenging his or her removal and must be given time to do so.

In one ongoing case, W.M.M. v. Trump, an appeals court ruled 2–1 that the mass illegal entry of Tren de Aragua gang members does not necessarily constitute an “invasion” as defined by the Alien Enemies Act.

Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham of the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, dissenting from the majority, highlighted the current friction between Trump and the judiciary.

“The majority’s approach to this case is not only unprecedented—it is contrary to more than 200 years of precedent,” he wrote in his dissent.

“It reflects a view of the Judicial power that is not only muscular—it is herculean. And it reflects a view of the Executive power that is not only diminutive—it is made subservient to the foreign-policy and public-safety hunches of every federal district judge in the country.”

The Fifth Circuit vacated that ruling at the end of September and plans to hold an en banc hearing; the full slate of circuit judges may reach a different conclusion.

In another case, J.G.G. v. Trump, a federal judge ordered the government to halt deportation flights headed to El Salvador’s Terrorist Confinement Center.

The judge is pursuing a criminal contempt-of-court inquiry against the Trump administration, alleging that the order was ignored.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 14:25

It’s that time of year again when families gather to feast on bountiful harvests and to give thanks for all of our blessings.

This year, skip the “Vibes” and instead focus on market data. Don’t lose sight of nuances and shades of grey; they don’t make for great memes, but they do lead to a better understanding of what’s going on.

Here are ten nuanced, slightly contrarian ideas for you to chew over:

1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market higher for years to come.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time.

My favorite takes on AI have come from Derek Thompson and Timothy Lee, who looked into the 12 main arguments Pro & Con, and Benjamin Riley, who aims to “help people understand human cognition and artificial intelligence.”

2. INFLATION: Everything costs more this year — except for the Turkey.

The largest fiscal stimulus since World War 2 led to the largest inflation surge since the 1970s. The rate of price increases rose by 9% (peaking June 2022) before falling back to 3% nearly as quickly. There were numerous causes of inflation, but the top of the list was the pandemic supply issues and the huge fiscal stimulus.

People confuse the rate of price change with prices. We had high inflation; today, we have low(ish) inflation, but we still retain higher prices. Everything is much more expensive today, even with inflation way down. Low Inflation and High Prices are not mutually exclusive.

CPI Inflation is in the 2-3% range today, but it is ticking upwards, creating difficulties for those on the FOMC who want to cut rates.

3. SUPPLY & DEMAND: We may not have structural inflation as we did in the 1970s, but we do have a structural imbalance in supply and demand of many critical goods and services.

A few significant examples:

Single-family homes Used cars Skilled labor Rare Earth minerals Renewable energy

Until supply catches up with demand, those prices will remain high. And that is before we get to health care and education costs.

4. ENERGY: The inflation of the 1970s was structural, caused in large part by the Arab Oil Embargo. In contrast, the United States is a net energy exporter today. In the 1970s, energy accounted for about 10% of the average household budget; the Chicago Fed found it peaked at nearly 14% in the early 1980s.

Household energy costs are about half of those levels today (5-6%), even as energy consumption has increased significantly. Every power-hungry device, from automobiles to HVAC systems to appliances, is now many times more efficient than in the past.

The wildcard is increased demand from power-hungry data centers…

5. CRYPTO CRASH: Given the embrace of crypto by the President (and POTUS’s family), much of Bitcoin 2025 gains can be attributed to this administration’s policies. We should not be surprised by the correlation between the President’s political fortunes / approval ratings, and the price of Bitcoin.

The President has had a terrible month; from the election thumping to the fallout with MTG to losing multiple legal cases (Tariffs at SCOTUS, Comey / James case dismissals), it’s no surprise that Bitcoin has suffered a 30% crash this month as well:

6. TARIFFS: Are fascinating: They cause temporary inflation spikes and permanent higher prices. There is no getting around it – any additional tax on imported goods is a source of increased prices. And as we have seen before, even domestic producers will raise prices (Greedflation) if they believe consumers won’t balk.

The good news: If the Supreme Court arguments were anything to go on, many of the Tariffs are likely to get struck down.

7. RATE CUTS: You can make a solid case either way – inflation remains stubborn at (or over) 3%, but there are signs of labor market softness, slowing consumer sales, and mediocre sentiment.

Expectations had fallen to a ~20% chance of a rate cut – until yesterday’s poor data. Now, we are back to an 80% chance of a December cut. Beyond that is anyone’s guess…

8. BUBBLES: By definition, it takes a crowd to create a bubble. Can you recall the public, the media, or even the Fed identifying a bubble on a timely basis? (Me neither).

Asked differently, can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational? If your answer is yes, then it’s likely not a bubble.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the AI bubble debate is Alphabet (GOOGL) passing Nvidia (NVDA) YTD returns:

: 

9. RECESSION: People hate inflation, but the alternative was a deep and long-lasting pandemic recession. We avoided a 10-12% unemployment rate, but the cost was 9% inflation.

Consider the alternative, had both the Trump and Biden admins not cranked up the fiscal spend, people would have been furious at the failure to do anything1. It’s a Lose/Lose; whatever choice got made, half the population would have been furious.

As angry as people are over high prices, they would have been even angrier at a do-nothing government letting an ugly recession take hold.

10. VALUATIONS: The Mag 7 remains pricey, even as Nvidia slides 13% off its highs. Its expensive, but it also generates $57 billion in quarterly revenues! Some sectors are extremely overpriced, others are more reasonable. The S&P 493 — S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7 — is at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, but not ridiculous.

Nuance is your friend.

Safe travels!

 

Previously:
The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Make Thanksgiving Great Again! (November 23, 2023)

Revisiting Greedflation (November 16, 2023)

Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022)

Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

How to Talk to a Fox News Viewer (November 22, 2018)

How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

 

 

The post 10 Datapoints for Thanksgiving appeared first on The Big Picture.

"It's Utilities Versus Rent" - Data Centers Send Energy Prices Soaring

The surge in data center construction to power today’s AI and cloud computing demands has sent electricity prices skyrocketing over the last few years. And, as Bloomberg reports, it is only getting worse.

With electricity costs now as much as 267% higher compared to five years ago in some parts of the US, fingers are being pointed directly at data center activity for blame. And while some - especially generously funded lobbies - are eager to dissemble and distort, claiming that on the contrary, electricity prices are barely keeping up with inflation and that data centers have little to no impact on electrical bills, the map below shows that more than 70% of the nodes that recorded pricing increases are located within 50 miles of significant data center activity.

Take Nicole Pasture: the Baltimore resident said her utility bills are up 50% over the past year. She is also a judge who rules on rental disputes in the city’s district court and sees people struggling with their power bills.

“It’s utilities versus rent,” she said. “They want to stay in their home, but they also want to keep their lights on.”

New data center construction projects are announced weekly, sometimes every day. Some of the construction timelines have upwards of 100 MW of new data center demand being built only two years from groundbreaking. This has to be contrasted against the rate of new energy generation construction, with the recent vite among PJM Interconnection stakeholders resulting in a failure to even select a plan for how to add data centers to the grid. 

“The voting reflects the nearly impossible challenge of trying to ensure resource adequacy and control ratepayer costs, while also allowing data center development in a market that is already short on generation supply and faces a 5-to-7 year timeline to bring on new large-scale generating resources,” Jon Gordon, a director at Advanced Energy United, a clean energy trade group, said in a bulletin on the meeting.

While some utilities have been able to pass the burden of higher electricity costs onto the owners of the large loads, most of the costs of expanding grid capacity inevitably find their way to consumers.

According to Bloomberg, in northern Virginia, Dominion Energy cited data center demand, inflation and higher fuel costs when asking regulators to raise its customer bills by about $20 a month for the average residential user over the next two years. Dominion also forecasts peak demand would rise by more than 75% by 2039 with data centers. It would be just 10% without.

And it's only getting worse: with hundreds of gigawatts of future power demand from data centers built by companies like Oracle and Microsoft, Goldman writes that "eight out of the 13 US regional power markets are already at or below critical spare capacity levels."

"eight out of the 13 US regional power markets are already at or below critical spare capacity levels." - Goldman https://t.co/YYAGUukfwR pic.twitter.com/eU4XPFAMrp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025

In other words, the electricity crisis is not around the corner: it's here already.

And since surging electricity costs are borne by everyone, the topic is rapidly becoming a political one...

In one year, this will be the most popular chart on this site pic.twitter.com/h93gWXMoNL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2025

... and we previously highlighted that the blame game has already started between Republicans and Democrats. Yet some localities seem to be more focused on solving the problem than merely grandstanding: consider the case of Texas where most data centers already have their own "behind the meter" onsite power generation, a key step to keeping overall power costs contained.

To prevent skyrocketing electric bills, every state has to follow the Texas example: each data center must have its own "behind the meter" onsite power generation.

“We believe data centers should pay for the full cost of their power,” Dominion Energy spokesperson Aaron Ruby… https://t.co/0u1owTeAs8 pic.twitter.com/8W421s3rzV

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025

Luckily for US consumers, the race for data center developers to secure behind the meter power is already on, with demand for modular reactors ratcheting higher.

We recently we highlighted the $700 million capital raise for privately-held modular reactor developer X-energy, as Amazon backs their 12-reactor project in Washington State to meet data center demand. We also highlighted the recent announcement between Nano Nuclear and BaRupOn for potentially developing upwards of 1 GW worth of nuclear energy to power the LAMP and Innovation Hub in Texas. Fermi America’s Matador Project, also in Texas, will utilize nuclear energy among other power generation sources, including gas, wind, and solar, to power a massive data center campus using a behind the meter grid.

So while power bills are soaring due to the ongoing avalanche of data center deployment to power the chatbot revolution (because someone has to write junior's high school essay), there is some hope that recent developments will put a lid on just how high the prices rise.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 14:00

Beige Book - November 2025

Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, though two Districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth. Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient. Some retailers noted a negative impact on consumer purchases from the government shutdown, and auto dealers saw declines in EV sales following the expiration of the federal tax credit. Reports of travel and tourism activity reflected little change in recent weeks, with some contacts noting cautious discretionary spending among consumers. Manufacturing activity increased somewhat, according to most Districts, though tariffs and tariff uncertainty remained a headwind. Revenues in the nonfinancial services sector were mostly flat to down, and reports of loan demand were mixed. Some Districts reported declines in residential construction, while others said it was unchanged, and home sales activity varied. A few Districts noted ongoing recovery in the office real estate market. Conditions in the agriculture and energy sectors were largely stable, though some contacts cited challenges from the low-price environment for oil and for some crops. Community organizations saw increased demand for food assistance, due in part to disruptions in SNAP benefits during the government shutdown. Outlooks were largely unchanged overall. Some contacts noted an increased risk of slower activity in coming months, while some optimism was noted among manufacturers.

Labor Markets

Employment declined slightly over the current period with around half of Districts noting weaker labor demand. Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs. In addition, several employers adjusted hours worked to accommodate higher or lower than expected business volume instead of adjusting the number of employees. A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring. Across most Districts, employers had an easier time finding workers, but there were still pockets of difficulty related to certain skilled positions and fewer immigrant workers. Wages generally grew at a modest pace; however, some sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and health care experienced more moderate wage pressure because of a tighter labor supply. Furthermore, rising health insurance premiums continue to put upward pressure on labor costs.

Prices

Prices rose moderately during the reporting period. Input cost pressures were widespread in manufacturing and retail, largely reflecting tariff-induced increases. Some Districts noted rising costs for insurance, utilities, technology, and health care. The extent of passthrough of higher input costs to customers varied, and depended upon demand, competitive pressures, price sensitivity of consumers, and pushback from clients. There were multiple reports of margin compression or firms facing financial strain stemming from tariffs. Prices declined for certain materials, which firms attributed to sluggish demand, deferred tariff implementation, or reduced tariff rates. Looking ahead, contacts largely anticipate upward cost pressures to persist but plans to raise prices in the near term were mixed.
emphasis added

Why Are The Elites Moving Into High Security 'Fortress Communities'

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

The elite aren’t stupid. They can see that our society is coming apart at the seams all around us, and so they want to live some place safe. In fact, for many among the elite security has become the number one priority when choosing a new home. Unfortunately, the vast majority of us do not have the resources to move into high security communities guarded by teams of armed professionals. When things really start hitting the fan, most Americans are just going to have to deal with the chaos that is suddenly erupting all around them.

But for the ultra-wealthy, one of the benefits of having so much money is being able to shut yourself off from the rest of the world.

In Delray Beach, Florida a community known as Stone Creek Ranch has become extremely trendy among the elite for one particular reason.

It has a heavily armed security unit that watches over it 24 hours a day…

On paper, Stone Creek Ranch—a “prestigious” enclave made up of less than 40 luxury homes—is a world away from Miami, Manalapan, and Palm Beach: It offers no beaches, no celebrity-approved nightlife, and no glitzy designer shopping.

Yet it offers one very particular luxury that is proving to be quite the draw among the one percent: total and absolute privacy that is safeguarded by a team of armed professionals who watch over the community 24/7—a majority of whom come from previous jobs in law enforcement or the military.

Prospective residents’ entry into the community is policed just as carefully: Any homebuyers seeking to purchase one of just 37 private residences within Stone Creek are required to go through rigorous criminal background checks before they can even attempt to secure a home there.

Considering how fast conditions in our society are deteriorating, it sounds like a wonderful place.

But you will never get to live there unless you have tens of millions of dollars…

Just last month, Hollywood A-lister Mark Wahlberg made headlines when he dropped $37 million on a newly constructed megamansion inside the enclave — only to be followed weeks later by Rockstar energy drink founder Russ Weiner, who is in contract on two properties in the community, worth a total of $43 million.

Indian Creek Village is another high security community in southern Florida.

The island boasts “a high-tech security system that’s straight out of a spy movie”, and the list of residents includes Tom Brady and Jeff Bezos…

Indian Creek Village, known as the “Billionaire Bunker,” isn’t just another gated community. It’s the ultimate fortress for the ultrarich. Nestled in South Florida’s Biscayne Bay, this private island is where some of the world’s wealthiest people, including Jeff Bezos and Tom Brady, have decided to stake their claim. But living here isn’t just about luxury. It’s about security and lots of it.

You can’t just stroll onto Indian Creek. Not a chance. The island is locked down with a high-tech security system that’s straight out of a spy movie. “The wealthier you become, the more you want perfect security,” Setha Low, director of the Public Space Research Group at CUNY, told Business Insider recently. And Indian Creek delivers. An Israeli-designed radar system rings the island. It’s a system that can detect anyone approaching half a mile away. Cameras are everywhere: hidden in hedges, mounted on poles and linked to a command center that monitors every move.

The police force here? They’re more like personal bodyguards for the residents. With 19 officers for just 89 residents, Indian Creek has a cop-to-citizen ratio that makes New York City look understaffed. And these aren’t your average officers. They’re trained in tactical operations and armed with fully automatic weapons. They also spend most of their time patrolling the island’s perimeter, ensuring no one gets too close.

Once upon a time, the ultra-wealthy preferred living in large cities such as Los Angeles or New York City.

But now everything has changed.

On Twitter, New York City Council Member Vickie Paladino shared a very disturbing incident that just occurred in her area…

Last night in Malba, a large group of individuals from outside my district conducted an illegal ‘takeover’ of a quiet residential street at approximately 12:30am. This is not the first time it’s happened.

A private security guard attempted to calm the situation — he was assaulted by the mob and his vehicle was set on fire. He suffered significant injuries. A local resident was also assaulted.

Response to this incident was less than ideal. Residents reporting the incident to 911 were told that ‘quality of life team’ and 311 should handle the situation. Unacceptable. In fact, these violent street takeovers should be met with maximum force by the police department.

We have NEVER had these problems before. Now it’s an epidemic. What changed? We stopped arresting criminals.

I am meeting this morning with the chief of department and the local precinct at the scene to discuss exactly what happened last night. I have already been assured that Malba will receive four dedicated patrol cars from this point forward, as well as additional security upgrades that we cannot disclose.

However, the city MUST do something to stop this lawlessness. All the speed cameras in the world do absolutely NOTHING to prevent these incidents — we need police response and the most severe consequences for these criminals, not to simply allow them to drive away after they’ve completed their mayhem.

These incidents are happening citywide, and they’re happening because there are no longer any real consequences to this kind of criminality. But let me make something very clear to the criminals — you are risking your lives bringing this chaos into our neighborhoods.

Why would the elite want to live in a place where this sort of thing is happening?

Why would anyone want to live in a place where this sort of thing is happening?

Of course conditions are not just deteriorating in our core urban areas.

In southeastern Wisconsin, thieves from South America are systematically looting home after home…

A wave of high-end residential burglaries across southeastern Wisconsin has prompted a coordinated law enforcement response and drawn political attention at both the local and national levels.

The Mequon Police Department (MPD) says the burglaries share striking similarities, suggesting a professional operation.

The suspects, dressed head to toe in black, with faces covered and gloves on, have entered homes through wooded backyards, often targeting cul-de-sacs or properties near golf courses.

Stolen items include jewelry, designer handbags, watches and cash, all consistent with organized theft groups that target affluent neighborhoods nationwide.

All over the nation, crime and violence are out of control.

If you have the resources to move somewhere more secure, that is probably a good idea.

But of course most of the population doesn’t have the resources to move somewhere more secure.

In fact, we have reached a point where millions upon millions of Americans are just trying to figure out a way to keep the lights on…

Misty Pellew’s family lived in the dark for several days this month.

Pellew’s power was shut off Nov. 13 because of $602 in unpaid bills, the latest in a string of financial humiliations that began six months ago after her husband lost his $20-an-hour excavation job in northeastern Pennsylvania. The recent government shutdown dealt another blow, delaying federal funding for programs that helped the family pay for food and utilities.

Although Pellew’s lights were temporarily turned back on last week, they were set to be disconnected again if she didn’t pay another $102. With an overdrawn bank account, she was bracing to be without power again. Last time, her family ate peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for dinner and slept in hoodies and gloves to keep warm.

This is what life looks like for so many people out there right now.

In New York City, residential power shutoffs are up fivefold compared to one year ago…

In some areas, such as New York City, the surge has been dramatic — with residential shutoffs in August up fivefold from a year ago, utility filings show.

Needless to say, Americans aren’t just getting behind on their power bills.

As economic conditions have steadily gotten worse, delinquency rates have risen to historic levels…

Credit card balances alone jumped $24 billion, reaching an all-time high, while the share of balances in serious delinquency—90 days past due—climbed to a nearly financial-crash level of 7.1 percent.

Auto loans tell a similar story, with serious delinquency rates at 3 percent, the highest since 2010. And a spike in resulting defaults has triggered a wave of repossessions in 2025, with 2.2 million vehicles already repossessed, per figures from the Recovery Database Network (RDN), and forecasts of a record 3 million by year’s end.

“Delinquencies, defaults, and repossessions have shot up in recent years and look alarmingly similar to trends that were apparent before the Great Recession,” the Consumer Federation of America said in a recent report.

When you are drowning in debt, relocating to a better place that will be more secure for your family is nothing but a pipe dream.

Most Americans will have to deal with whatever is ahead wherever they are located right now.

But the ultra-wealthy have enough money to live wherever they want, and the fact that so many of them are choosing to live in “fortress communities” says a lot about where things are heading.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY STARTS NOW

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 13:40

Huge Explosion Kills 5 At Arms Depot In Idlib, Syria

On Wednesday a huge explosion rocked the town of Kafr Takharim in Idlib province in northwestern Syria, killing five people and injuring nine others, according to regional sources.

The blast and resulting large plume of smoke over the town unleashed immediate speculation that it could have been a US or coalition airstrike targeting terrorist entities. Israel has also frequently bombed Syria of late, so there is that possibility as well, though the Israelis don't typically bomb that far north near the Turkish border.

However, AFP is citing government security forces who say the deadly explosion was the result of an accidental detonation of a weapons depot.

Image source: Levant24

All of the deceased were workers at or near the weapons storage site, and it was "caused by a warehouse containing missiles and ammunition, and occurred due to work underway" - according to a Syrian official.

The AFP detailed, "Images circulating online showed widespread destruction, fire and damage to farmland, while videos showed shrapnel reaching shops and residential buildings."

The report reviewed further that "In August, four people were killed in an explosion at a weapons depot on the outskirts of Idlib, authorities said."

And the New Arab explains that the post-war situation has resulted in dangerous storage situations when it comes to arms and bombs:

Arms and ammunition depot explosions are common in Syria, which has been the scene of brutal conflict for 14 years and where weapons are often not properly secured, while bombs have also detonated as they are stripped down for scrap metal.

During the Obama years and first Trump administration, some US officials admitted that Idlib became the biggest al-Qaeda and terror safe-haven in the world. This is even after a US covert program helped jihadists take Idlib from Assad government forces in 2015.

Massive explosion leaves populated area completely scorched in Syria's Idlib countryside

Injuries reported after huge blast in ammo depot — SOHR pic.twitter.com/fJcT8nFwGk

— RT (@RT_com) November 26, 2025

Currently, Syrians in the region are returning to their homes only to find them occupied by foreign fighters, as even mainstream media has belatedly begun to acknowledge.

NPR this week has documented that Christians have often had their homes confiscated by Sunni jihadists, who are often foreigners. As Syrians attempt to return to their homes in the north after years of war, the following is a common scene:

He found foreign fighters living in the house. Someone had also ripped out most of his fruit trees – he never figured out who — and the harvests from his large olive groves, at the foot of the village, had been taken over by foreign fighters as well.

There were women living in his home, too. He couldn't tell who they were because he wasn't allowed to speak to them. He says they wore full black niqabs, leaving only their eyes uncovered. "The male fighters largely did not speak Arabic, so I could not communicate with them," he says.

A huge explosion rocked the Idlib countryside at what seems to be the site of an arms depot pic.twitter.com/9at5L7DMi4

— حـ ރ (@hassanspeaksss) November 26, 2025

Absurdly, the mainstream media is only now - after Assad was overthrown nearly a year ago - coming to admit and document the huge role that international jihadist terrorists played in accomplishing regime change in Damascus.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 13:20

JP Morgan Says Oil Prices Could Plunge Into $30s By 2027

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

• JP Morgan predicts the international crude benchmark, Brent, could drop into the $30s per barrel by 2027 due to an overwhelming market oversupply.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude will average $53 per barrel in 2026 amid a 2 million bpd surplus and advises investors to short oil right now.

• The oil market is expected to rebalance in 2027 after the current large supply wave, including output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers in the Americas, works through the system.

The international crude benchmark, Brent, could dip to the $30s per barrel handle by 2027 as oversupply could overwhelm the market, according to a JP Morgan forecast posted by users on X.  

Brent Crude prices have dropped by 14% year to date, and traded relatively stable at $62.59 per barrel early on Monday, as the oil market awaits news from the renewed negotiations on peace in Ukraine. 

The U.S. and Ukraine held on Sunday in Geneva what the two sides described as “highly productive” talks and agreed to continue intensive work on a “refined” peace plan, which the U.S. first proposed last week. 

Despite the fears of a glut, analysts and investment banks don’t see oil prices moving down to $40 or below, even as oil is set to decline in the near term with strong supply from OPEC+ and the non-OPEC producers in the Americas.  

Peace in Ukraine could also weigh on energy prices as some sanctions and restrictions on Russia could be eased, analysts say. 

Oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels amid a large surplus on the market, with the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank’s call for next year is that oil prices are on track for further declines and investors should short oil right now, Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week. 

The surplus next year will be 2 million bpd on average, Goldman reckons, but notes that 2026 will be the last year of the current big supply wave hitting the market.

The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Goldman’s Struyven added.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 13:00

Armed Robber Targets Sam Altman's Ex-Boyfriend's House, Forces Transfer Of $11 Million In Crypto

Updated

A thief barged into a house owned by Lachy Groom - a wealthy tech investor who once dated OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, tied up a victim, and made off with $11 million in Crypto Saturday evening in San Francisco, the NY Post reports.

Sam Altman and Lachy Groom, attend the annual Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference in 2018 in Idaho. Getty Images

Dressed as a delivery worker, the armed robber rang the door at Groom's $4.4 million home on Dorland Street while carrying a white box, asks for Joshua - who lives with Groom - while claiming to be a UPS driver. The victim answers the door and identifies himself as Joshua. 

The thief then asked for him to sign for the package - asking if he can borrow a pen. The suspect then followed Joshua inside when a loud bang can be heard. 

Robber posing as a delivery driver steals $11,000,000 in crypto after pulling a gun and duct-taping the victim in San Francisco pic.twitter.com/Jny8HfVvGC

— BAY AREA STATE OF MIND (@YayAreaNews) November 24, 2025

According to the report, the suspect pulled a gun, tied up the victim with duct tape, and then stole $11 million worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin (exact method unknown), in what is believed to have been a hit by an organized crime group that the suspect was part of.

The suspect then tortured the victim, beating him while he held a phone up on loudspeaker as foreign voices on the line repeated his personal information that they had obtained. The thief then poured liquid on the victim before the crypto wallets were emptied.

The whole thing took around 90 minutes. 

Homeowner Lachy Groom, 31, is a venture capitalist and the ex-boyfriend of Open AI’s Altman, 40, who dated the billionaire sometime before he got married in 2024, sources with knowledge of their relationship said. Groom bought the property from Altman’s brother in 2021 for $1.8 million, property records show. Details of their relationship have not previously been reported. Attempts to reach Groom were not returned.

The Post has learned Joshua is a fellow tech investor who lives with Groom at the 4-bedroom Dorland Street home. 

Altman and Groom have invested together in various companies. Groom, a native Australian, has founded four startups and sold three before he turned 18. 

Sam Altman and Lachy Groom pose together in a social media image from 2014. Lachy Groom/Facebook

Prominent San Francisco tech investor Garry Tan shared the security footage from the heist on Monday morning - writing in a since-deleted tweet: "We have to find the perpetrator," adding "Time is of the essence." 

"Self custody of crypto seems like a good idea until it isn’t. Vault storage (at Coinbase or elsewhere) for long term holding is safest," said Tan. 

Correction: Article updated to reflect that Groom was not the one who was attacked. We apologize for the error.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 12:40

Rand Paul Warns Trump War In Venezuela Will 'Fracture' MAGA Movement

Via The Libertarian Institute

Senator Rand Paul said that President Donald Trump’s warmongering in Latin America could fracture the GOP. 

"I think once there’s an invasion of Venezuela, or if they decide to re-up the subsidies and the gifts to Ukraine, I think you’ll see a splintering and a fracturing of the movement that has supported the President," Paul told Margret Brennan on Sunday. "I think a lot of people, including myself, were attracted to the president because of his reticence to get us involved in foreign war."

Getty Images

Paul has been highly critical of the President ordering strikes on drug boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. The US has destroyed 22 ships, killing at least 83 people. The Senator has condemned the strikes as extrajudicial killings. 

The US has engaged in a massive military buildup in the Caribbean and threatened Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Multiple reports have said the White House is preparing for strikes in Venezuela. 

Paul pointed to Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio for pushing regime change in Caracas.

"I think it’s clear that Senator Rubio, as a senator, was very much an advocate of regime change," he explained. 

Fractures have already emerged within Trump’s MAGA movement over his foreign policy. Some conservative commentators have demanded that Tucker Carlson and others be removed from the movement over their stance on Israel. 

Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene recently announced her resignation from Congress after sparring with Trump on the Jeffrey Epstein files, Israel, and Venezuela. 

Sen. Paul has been loudly saying Congress must be involved and it either meets the legal definition of war or not...

The Admin is pretending we’re “at war” with Venezuela to justify blowing up boats all without a vote, without transparency, and without answering to Congress. If it’s war, declare it. If it’s not, stop acting like it is. pic.twitter.com/ATntKrnvpr

— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) November 24, 2025

Multiple polls have shown that invading Venezuela is widely unpopular with Americans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from last week has found "just 21% of Americans support the idea of using the US military to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, results that come amid a series of reports that the Trump administration is considering a regime change war in Venezuela."

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 12:20

Georgia Prosecutor Nukes Trump's Election Interference Case That Fani Fumbled

Less than two weeks after a Georgia prosecutor took control of the 2020 election interference case against President Trump and several allies (the one Fani Willis fumbled), the case has been officially dropped. 

"Given the complexity of the legal issues at hand - ranging from constitutional questions and the Supremacy Clause to immunity, jurisdiction, venue, speedy-trial concerns, and access to federal records - and even assuming each of these issues were resolved in the State’s favor, bringing this case before a jury in 2029, 2030, or even 2031 would be nothing short of a remarkable feat," wrote Peter Skandalakis, executive director of the nonpartisan Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia who was tasked with finding a new prosecutor to take on the case after Willis was removed by the Georgia appellate court. 

This adds to the pile of Democrat lawfare cases that have blown up in their faces, including those brought by special counsel Jack Smith on election interference and mishandling of classified documents.

Skandalakis said that while he considered severing Trump's case from his codefendants so they could be tried first, doing so "would be both illogical and unduly burdensome and costly for the State and for Fulton County." 

The Georgia case was brought by Willis in early 2021 after a January phone call became public in which Trump expressed frustration with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger amid reports of ballots cast for Joe Biden which had been mysteriously 'found.' When Trump asked him to similarly 'find' votes for him, Democrats used it as the foundation of the case.

Willis, as we all know, tanked the case after it came out that she hired her lover to help prosecute the case - which Democrats viewed as their best chance to go to trial because it was handled by a local Georgia prosecutor vs. federal charges which could be pardoned. 

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY STARTS NOW

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 12:00

The post Trump RX: The Merger of Pharma Corruption and Trump Crazy appeared first on CEPR.

Strategy Unveils New Credit Gauge To Calm Debt Fears After Crypto Crash

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Michael Saylor’s Strategy is attempting to calm investor concerns about its balance sheet after the recent Bitcoin market downturn and a sharp pullback in digital asset treasury (DAT) stocks.

Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has rolled out a new credit rating dashboard based on the company’s preferred stock notional value, and claims to have another 70 years’ worth of dividend payment runway to service its debt, even if Bitcoin’s price remains flat.

“If $BTC drops to our $74K average cost basis, we still have 5.9x assets to convertible debt, which we refer to as the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25K BTC, it would be 2.0x,” said Strategy in a Tuesday X post.

The move comes as investors grow increasingly worried that falling crypto prices could force large DAT companies into liquidation, adding more selling pressure to an already weakened market.

Strategy’s BTC Credit dashboard. Source: Strategy.com

Strategy’s dividend runway and “robust” enterprise software cash flow are significantly reducing the liquidation risks for the company, according to Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet.

“We view MicroStrategy’s 71-year dividend runway claim as realistic under a flat Bitcoin price scenario,” however, long-term projections are dependent on several uncertainties, including “market volatility or regulatory shifts,” Zhang told Cointelegraph.

“I’m not particularly concerned about near-term liquidations for the largest corporate BTC holder, as their diversified funding and hodl strategy positions them well for sustained growth.”

Strategy’s ongoing accumulation, she added, has contributed to broader “industry stability” and supported deeper institutional adoption.

Strategy’s hodl stance may prevent deeper Bitcoin declines, analyst says

Strategy’s ability to avoid forced selling could also help Bitcoin avoid falling below key psychological levels in future downturns, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant.

Strategy’s strong financials are a positive signal for the next Bitcoin bear market, as the world’s largest corporate holder is “unlikely to sell,” he said.

This may save BTC from revisiting its realized price of around $56,000 during the next crypto bear market “because players like MSTR are unlikely to sell and those coins are effectively off the market,” wrote the analyst in a Friday X post.

Still, some of the leading DATs suffered significant stock crashes and declines in their market net asset value (mNAV), including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet, Sharplink Gaming, Upexi and DeFi Development Corp.

The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto holdings. An mNAV below 1 makes it more challenging for companies to raise funds by issuing new shares, which may limit their cryptocurrency purchases.

Strategy key metrics, including mNAV. Source: Strategy.com

Strategy’s mNAV stood at 1.16 at the time of writing, meaning the company could still theoretically issue new shares to raise additional capital, according to Strategy’s dashboard.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 11:45

WTI Steady Near One-Month Lows Amid Peace Deal Talk, Record Crude Production

Oil prices are steady this morning near one month lows, after a tempestuous few days swinging around Russia peace deal headlines.

US President Donald Trump said “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement,” as he sent negotiators to more meetings, while the Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said talks in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.”

Goldman said a peace deal may shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of $56 next year.

“That would put Brent in 2026 in the low $50s,” analyst Daan Struyven told Bloomberg TV.

API reported a lackluster set of inventory data that calmed the market too...

API

• Crude -1.86mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +539k

• Distillates +753k

DOE

• Crude +2.774mm

• Cushing -68k

• Gasoline +2.513mm

• Distillates +1.147mm

US Crude stocks rose for the 3rd time in the last four weeks as did product inventories...

Source: Bloomberg

... while Cushing stocks continue to test 'tank bottoms'...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production continues to hover near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is hovering around $58, near one month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Much of Russia’s oil and fuel is subject to heavy Western sanctions, with US restrictions on the two biggest producers kicking in last week. However, China, India and Turkey have been eager buyers of the discounted crude, so the impact on global prices from any lifting of curbs is hard to gauge.

“Minute adjustments between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU on proposed peace deals have been carefully digested by the market,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.

“Any positive signs of collaboration or agreement have resulted in short-term sell-offs, while the dialing-back of enthusiasm has bolstered prices.”

Oil has retreated by more than a fifth since the middle of June as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored barrels, while producers outside of the group also pumped more. Worldwide crude supply is expected to exceed demand by a record 4 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency forecast this month.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 10:38

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in October, down from up 1.1% YoY in September. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in October is a new cycle low. ...

As of October, 26 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-3.2%), Florida (-3.0%) and Texas (-2.5%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 200 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 7 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

Florida has the largest number of CBSAs on the list and Texas has the 2nd most.

There is much more in the article!

UBS: AI Mania Has More Fuel, Dubs GenAI The "Steam Engine Of The Mind"

As chatter about an AI-driven market bubble grows louder across Wall Street, with nearly half of BofA's Fund Manager Survey respondents calling the AI/data-center boom a bubble, UBS analysts are out with a note insisting there is plenty more bubble-blowing ahead. 

UBS analyst Andrew Garthwaite wrote that his bullish target for the MSCI AC World is 1,090 by end-2026 (+11%). But he noted that if GenAI delivers even half the productivity surge that late-1990s Tech was believed to produce, the S&P 500 could "easily" justify 7,000.

"We think Gen AI - 'the steam engine of the mind' - will increase productivity more than TMT did back in the late 1990s," Garthwaite told clients. 

He continued, "We also now have all 7 preconditions for a bubble that we are not yet in (historically, the P/E at a bubble peak has been 45x-72x on 12-month trailing earnings for 30-43% of global market cap versus Mag 6 today on 33x)." 

Garthwaite pointed to a previous analysis in the UBS Global Economics and Strategy Outlook that shows today's market performance patterns are similar to those in March 1998. 

"We also highlight that we believe we are far removed from any of the major catalysts that mark a bubble peak," he said. 

The analyst continued:

We think there is more justification for a bubble (which we are not yet in) to form than any of the many others we have seen owing to the uniquely quick adoption rate of Gen AI and the threat of monetisation of government debt (which would lead to a move from nominal to real assets). We see at least a 35% chance of a bubble fully forming, and that would justify 1090 MSCI AC World.

Other factors that are supportive for equities: i) The well-behaved nature of US wage growth (this allows the Fed to be proactive if necessary); ii) the historical performance of equities when we just miss a bear market (2 years later up 43% on average versus 34.6% so far) or when the Fed cut and there is no recession (up 17% a year later); and iii) it is too early to call an end to AI or Tech+ outperformance. The P/E of Tech+ relative to the market is close to its norm, earnings growth is expected to be better than the market until Q2 27, and earnings revisions are better than the market. There are many other supports such as hyperscalers being able to increase capex by c40% before capex is above 2025 operating cash flow, with ICT investment as a % of GDP still at average levels.

Near term, there is a risk of ongoing consolidation continuing. In early November, UBS Risk Appetite had been at a 5-year high and CTA positioning at an 8-year high. These indicators are normalising but are still above average; however, we would be surprised if the sell-off extended by another 5%.

Most important charts from Garthwaite's note:

Bubble preconditions are all in place ... the only missing ingredient is looser monetary policy.

The audience at the UBS European conference held on November 11 was asked: "Are we in a bubble?" 

Here's how they responded...

"In my opinion, the justification for a bubble to form is better than any of the many other bubbles that I have seen during the past 38 years doing global strategy," Garthwaite said. 

Far removed from the peak of a bubble in terms of valuation or catalysts...

ZeroHedge Pro subs can read the full UBS note in the usual place. Notably, the bank's position contrasts sharply with our earlier reporting:

• Fund Manager Survey: Most See AI As A Bubble, Are Done With Massive CapEx Spending, And Love EMs In 2026

• The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"

• Oracle Is First AI Domino To Fall After Barclays Downgrades Its Debt To Sell

• AI Megacaps Throw Off New Warning Lights — Or New Fuel — Depending on Your Religion

Meanwhile...

• Hedge Funds Unleash Stock-Buying Frenzy, Cover Tech Shorts

In short, it depends on which institutional desk you read - there's clearly a gap in views about where we are in the bubble cycle. UBS believes the current phase could extend for a few years, a bullish scenario that would coincide with President Trump's affordability push for low- to middle-income households during the midterm election cycle, while higher-income households continue to benefit from market gains: a perfect scenario. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 10:25

Don't Wear Slippers, Pajamas At Airport, Transportation Secretary Duffy Urges

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is asking Americans to dress “with some respect” while flying, as part of his campaign to restore civility to air travel.

Travelers check in at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago on Nov. 25, 2025. Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images

“Whether it’s a pair of jeans and a decent shirt, I would encourage people to maybe dress a little bit better, which encourages us to maybe behave a little better,” Duffy said on Nov. 24 while giving a Thanksgiving travel briefing at New Jersey’s Newark International Airport.

“Let’s try not to wear slippers and pajamas as we come to the airport,” he continued. “I think that’s positive.”

Duffy’s comments came as he warned of what he called a “degradation in civility” among plane passengers. He urged them to show more “common courtesy” and patience during the holiday rush, such as helping fellow passengers who struggle to lift bags into overhead bins and saying “please” and “thank you” to flight attendants.

He also asked travelers to curb behaviors that could irritate those around them, such as watching movies without headphones or removing shoes and placing their feet on the seatbacks in front of them.

“Just be cognizant and courteous. That’s the ask,” he said.

National Civility Push

Earlier this month, the Department of Transportation (DOT) launched a national civility campaign called “The Golden Age of Travel Starts With You.” It is intended to “jumpstart a nationwide conversation around how we can all restore courtesy and class to air travel,” the agency said.

As part of its new initiative, the department is encouraging travelers to reflect on five questions during their trip, including whether they are keeping children under control and “dressing with respect.”

The campaign invokes the memory of the mid-20th-century “Golden Age of Travel,” when Americans typically dressed up for flights. Today, comfort is often prioritized over formality, especially given the tightly spaced economy cabins and the rise of flight delays.

The campaign comes in part in response to what the department describes as a record surge in unruly passenger incidents, including confrontations with crew and fellow travelers.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reports that such incidents peaked in 2021 before dropping sharply in the years that followed, although incidents remain roughly twice as many as before the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2021, the FAA started referring the most serious unruly-passenger cases to the FBI for potential criminal review. More than 310 of these cases had been referred since 2021 to the FBI under the partnership, the FAA said last August.

Thanksgiving Travel Outlook

The DOT’s civility push arrives just ahead of the Thanksgiving travel period, which the American Automobile Association expects to draw nearly 82 million people traveling at least 50 miles from home between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1.

Of those, about 6 million are expected to take domestic flights, a 2 percent increase from last year, according to the association. Air passenger volumes have hovered between 5 million and 6 million during Thanksgiving week in recent years.

Separately, on Nov. 16, the FAA announced it would roll back all restrictions on commercial flights at 40 major U.S. airports, including large hubs in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Atlanta. Those limits had been imposed during the record-long federal government shutdown, which left air-traffic controllers working without pay for more than a month.

*  *  * BLACK FRIDAY STARTS NOW

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 10:05

Chicago Manufacturing PMI Plunges In November

MNI's Chicago Business Barometer Report came in dramatically worse than expected for November, printing 36.3 (the lowest since May 2024), well below expectations of 43.6 and the prior print of 43.8

Under the hood, it was all ugly: 

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

And this confirms the plummet that we have seen in 'soft' data in aggregate since the shutdown was lifted...

Does it really feel like the worst of COVID currently in Chicago?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 09:55

Texas Becomes First US State To Buy Bitcoin For Its Strategic Reserve

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

On November 20, Texas became the first U.S. state to buy Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve, acquiring $5 million at roughly $87,000 per BTC, according to Lee Bratcher, President of the Texas Blockchain Council.

The purchase was made through BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while the state finalizes plans for self-custody.

The move signals growing state-level interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Texas had previously explored strategic Bitcoin legislation last year, wanting to create a Bitcoin reserve without using taxpayer funds. 

In June of this year, the Texas governor signed the legislation into law, creating a state Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Institutional investors are increasingly following suit. Harvard University’s endowment recently tripled its IBIT holdings to $442.8 million, making it the university’s largest publicly disclosed investment. 

Emory University and Abu Dhabi’s Al Warda Investments have also significantly increased Bitcoin ETF exposure.

Bitcoin’s price is currently trading near $87,500, roughly 30% below its all-time high. Lee Bratcher was the first to disclose this news. 

“Texas will eventual self-custody bitcoin,” Bratcher said, “but while that RFP process takes place, this initial allocation was made with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

Bratcher is the President and Founder of the Texas Blockchain Council, an industry association with over 100 member companies and hundreds of individuals promoting Texas as a hub for Bitcoin and blockchain innovation. 

He actively championed the state’s Bitcoin reserve legislation, working on the ground to guide it through the state Senate.

Texas isn’t the only state interested in buying bitcoin 

In the legislation explored last year, Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione filed a bill to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the state. 

The legislation proposed that the state buy and hold bitcoin as a strategic asset, store it in cold storage for at least five years, allow resident donations, and enable state agencies to accept and convert cryptocurrencies to bitcoin. 

It also mandated transparency through yearly audits and reports. Modeled after a federal proposal by President Donald Trump and Senator Lummis, the bill mirrored the growing global interest of bitcoin. 

Earlier this month, New Hampshire became the first government worldwide to approve a $100 million Bitcoin-backed municipal bond. The state’s Business Finance Authority (BFA) authorized the conduit bond, allowing private companies to borrow against over-collateralized Bitcoin held in custody, with repayment risk resting solely on the collateral. 

Borrowers must post roughly 160% of the bond’s value in Bitcoin, and automated liquidation protects bondholders if values drop. Fees and any BTC appreciation will fund the state’s Bitcoin Economic Development Fund. 

This move follows New Hampshire and Arizona’s earlier creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 09:25

John Deere Calls "Large Ag Cycle" Bottom Next Year - Just As China Ramps Up U.S. Soybean Buying

Economic conditions for American farmers have been brutal this year, as China shifted much of its soybean and other commodity purchases to South America. But the new Trump-Xi trade deal has sparked hope, with Beijing ramping up U.S. crop purchases once again. If sustained, this could signal that the worst of the farm-sector downturn is finally behind us.

American farmers finally received some clarity from equipment-maker John Deere, which said Wednesday morning in an earnings update that the bottom of the large agricultural cycle may materialize in 2026. 

"Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle," John May, chairman and CEO of John Deere, wrote in a statement. 

Deere's fiscal fourth-quarter outlook for 2026 highlights just how fragile the U.S. farm economy remains. It estimated fiscal-year net income between $4 and $4.75 billion, well below the $5.31 billion Bloomberg Consensus, sending shares down about 2% in premarket trading in New York. Deere shares are up 17% on the year, as of Tuesday's closing. 

Here's a snapshot of Deere's mixed quarter, beating estimates on several key lines while showing continued margin pressure across major segments (courtsey of Bloomberg): 

Headline Results

• EPS: $3.93 (vs. $4.55 y/y), topping the $3.88 estimate
• Net income: $1.07B, down 14% y/y but slightly above expectations
• Total net sales & revenue: $12.39B, up 11% y/y

Production & Precision

• Ag: Sales: $4.74B, up 10% y/y and ahead of estimates
• Operating profit: $604M, down 8% y/y
• Margin compression continues (12.7% vs. 15.3% y/y)

Small Ag & Turf:

• Sales: $2.46B, up 6.5% y/y and stronger than expected
• Operating profit collapsed to $25M (-89% y/y)
• Margin plunged to 1% (vs. 10.1% y/y)

Construction & Forestry:

• Sales: $3.38B, up a strong 27% y/y
• Operating profit: $348M, up 6% y/y
• Margins slipped to 10.3% from 12.3% y/y

Deere's call that the agricultural cycle will bottom next year comes as the Trump-Xi trade agreement aims to boost U.S. crop shipments. Rising export demand should help improve farmer sentiment and incomes, laying the groundwork for a more meaningful farm-sector recovery.

The latest word from Reuters is that China has purchased at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed on Tuesday. The purchases were confirmed by two traders with direct knowledge of the deals. This comes just two days after Trump and Xi spoke by phone, during which Trump touted a "great deal for U.S. farmers."

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 08:40

Initial Jobless Claims Tumble To 7 Month Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled to just 216k last week - the lowest since April

Source: Bloomberg

Since the shutdown was lifted, jobless claims among workers in the 'Deep Tristate' have tumbled...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims ticked higher - remaining above the 1.9 million level, near its highest since Nov 2021

Source: Bloomberg

...so much for the struggling labor market?

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/26/2025 - 08:36