Individual Economists

'Above Average'

Zero Hedge -

'Above Average'

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“The left can act with an insane decentralized unanimity typically seen only in the insect kingdom.”

- Curtis Yarvin

All winters are winters of discontent, but some winters are more discontented than others, and this one is like being stuck in a smoke-filled sod hut on the lonely prairie, with lice crawling under your hair-shirt, while a sleet-storm rages outside. . . . And it was only just Christmas days ago!

Immigrants, legal and otherwise, are the gifts that keep on giving.

Minnesota is acting all indignant now over the discovery that its many thousands of Somali guests made a major industry of looting the government. What is it with Garrison Keillor’s upright descendants of the pioneers? I guess they’re not as “above average” as he used to tell us.

The fellow in charge, for instance, was one Tim Walz, recently a candidate for Veep, if you can believe it. He seemed oblivious to the scam-o-rama going on, though the “Little Mogadishu” neighborhood in Minneapolis is only a couple of miles from the governor’s mansion across the Mississippi River in St. Paul.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, flummoxed

You must wonder: does he know any of these people?

Does he consort with their representative in Congress, Ms. Ilhan Omar who, just this year happened to come into a $30-million fortune.

(Did Nancy Pelosi tutor Rep. Omar on stock-picking?)

The Somali racketeering network is alleged to have stolen billions of tax dollars for empathy-dripping social services programs such as “Feeding Our Future,” housing stabilization, autism therapy services, day-care, and Covid-19 relief measures.

These were a mix of state and federal funds funneled through Medicaid, with the feds covering roughly 50-60 percent of costs, all administered by the state government. The fraud proceeds were primarily spent on personal luxury items (cars, homes, travel), real estate (including overseas), or transferred abroad to Somali terror groups such as al-Shabaab associated with al Qaeda.

Governor Walz declared, “Minnesotans have no tolerance for fraud. That’s why we created a state law enforcement unit to investigate and hold people accountable for these crimes, and why I’m calling on the legislature to pass our comprehensive anti-fraud package.” Another son of the prairie, Senator Everett Dirksen of Illinois (d. 1969) once cracked, “. . . a billion here, a billion there, sooner or later you’re talking about real money.” FBI Director Kash Patel “surged” a big unit of his agents to the Land o’ Lakes to have a closer look at the situation. So far, federal prosecutors have secured convictions (many through guilty pleas) of over sixty Somalis and the American who ran the non-profit org Feeding Our Future, Aimee Bock, described as “the ringleader.”

Prosecutors say those associated with the org defrauded the Federal Child Nutrition Program of nearly $250 million through Minnesota’s Department of Education.

The feds identified millions of dollars in several bank accounts associated with Bock, as well as more than $13,000 in cash found in her home. KSTP-TV Eyewitness News, Minneapolis said, “Bock was also convicted of accepting kickback payments, or bribes, and funneling money to her boyfriend at the time, one Empress Watson.”

Say, what. . . ? A boyfriend named. . . Empress? Is it possible that Governor Walz is not personally acquainted with Aimee Bock?

The New York Times apparently decided that the Minnesota scandal was not worth reporting. Islamophobia, you understand. Instead, the Sunday edition carried this story:

Perhaps the most interesting twist in the Great Minnesota Grift is how money bounced out of the various social service fraud operations into the coffers of Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party politicians. State Attorney General Keith Ellison collected donations totaling around $10,000–$15,000 from multiple defendants or affiliates shortly after a 2021 meeting where future fraudsters discussed state oversight issues. His son, Minneapolis City Council Member Jeremiah Ellison, pulled in up to $9,000 at a 2021 fundraiser from multiple future defendants. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey accepted roughly $9,000 from nine defendants or affiliates. (His office later vowed to return or donate the funds.) Rep. Ilhan Omar got her beak wet for $7,000. There may be much more “smurf” donation grifting behind those via the political action committee ActBlue’s straw donor schemes. Stand by on that one.

One special outrage that flew under the radar this holiday season surfaced after Christmas: In November, Minnesota Judge Sarah West (DFL Party) tossed out a jury’s unanimous guilty verdict against one Abdifatah Yusuf of Promise Health Services, convicted of masterminding a $7.2-million Medicaid fraud.

She based her reversal on the prosecution failing to exclude other reasonable, rational inferences inconsistent with Yusuf’s guilt.

That’s rich. Is the prosecution obliged to provide alibis for the guy they’re prosecuting? Maybe in Minnesota, with its above average legal code. Anyway, Yusuf just walked. End of story. Maybe.

Tune in Friday, readers, for the annual forecast of the year-to-come. Making predictions is a mugg’s game, I admit, but a necessary ceremony nonetheless. I will do my level best.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 16:20

Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Calculated Risk -

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 2.8% YoY through September. This was down from a peak of 5.6% in early 2022.  The FOMC is forecasting the YoY change in core PCE will be in the 2.4% to 2.6% range in Q4 2025. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2026, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Although there are different measures for inflation, they all show inflation above the Fed's 2% inflation target on a year-over-year basis.

Note:  I follow several measures of inflation, including median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI from the Cleveland Fed.  Also core PCE prices (monthly from the BEA) and core CPI (from the BLS).

Inflation MeasuresClick on graph for larger image.

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.1% in November (down from 3.5% YoY in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.2%). 
Core PCE is for September was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in August.
The Fed is projecting core PCE inflation will decrease to 2.4% to 2.6% by Q4 2026. 
The good news is we should expect a further decline in housing inflation (asking rents have been flat for 3 years, and it takes time for the previous rent increases to filter through to renewals).  And inflation was fairly high in January last year (CPI up 5.7% annual rate, Core CPI up 5.5% annual rate) - so it is likely YoY measures of inflation will decline further in January.
From Goldman Sachs economists last week:
"We expect core PCE inflation to slow to 2.1% by the end of 2026 as tariff pass-through fades and wage growth and shelter inflation continue to fall."
My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2026 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2026 (and above Goldmans forecast of 2.1%).  
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?<

OpenAI Looking To Hire 'Head Of Preparedness' To Tackle AI Dangers

Zero Hedge -

OpenAI Looking To Hire 'Head Of Preparedness' To Tackle AI Dangers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

OpenAI is seeking to hire a candidate for the post of “Head of Preparedness” to tackle dangers posed by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI), CEO Sam Altman said in a Dec. 27 post on X.

OpenAI sparked initial public interest in AI chatbot interactions with the popular launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

“This is a critical role at an important time; models are improving quickly and are now capable of many great things, but they are also starting to present some real challenges,” Altman wrote.

“The potential impact of models on mental health was something we saw a preview of in 2025; we are just now seeing models get so good at computer security they are beginning to find critical vulnerabilities.”

The post comes as OpenAI is facing a host of lawsuits on the subject of mental health. In November, seven complaints were filed against the company in California, alleging that its ChatGPT chatbot sent three people into delusional “rabbit holes” while encouraging four others to kill themselves.

According to the lawsuits, the four deaths occurred following the victims’ conversation with ChatGPT about suicide. In some cases, the chatbot romanticized suicide, advising the victims on ways to carry out the act.

As for computer security, multiple reports have flagged the risks posed by AIs.

For instance, a May report from McKinsey & Company warned that AI models capable of detecting fraud and securing networks can also infer identities, expose sensitive information, and reassemble stripped-out details.

The State of Cybersecurity Resilience 2025 report from Accenture warned that 90 percent of companies are not modernized enough to defend against AI-driven threats.

In its Aug. 27 Threat Intelligence Report, AI company Anthropic, which makes the Claude AI, said that AI was being weaponized to carry out sophisticated cybercrimes. In one operation, a hacker used Claude to infiltrate 17 organizations, with the AI used to penetrate networks, analyze stolen data, and create psychologically targeted ransom notes.

In his post, Altman said that while OpenAI has a “strong foundation” for measuring the growing capabilities of its AI models, the company is entering a world where a “more nuanced understanding and measurement” is required to assess how these capabilities could be abused and to limit downsides.

These are “hard” questions with very little precedent, he said. Many ideas that sound good have “edge cases,” which are extreme or unusual scenarios that test the boundaries of a system, such as an AI.

“This will be a stressful job, and you'll jump into the deep end pretty much immediately,” Altman said.

The role, based in San Francisco, requires the person to build capability evaluations, establish threat models, and build mitigations, according to a post by OpenAI. The job offers $555,000 in annual compensation plus equity.

The head of preparedness will oversee mitigation design across major risk areas, such as cyber and biology, and ensure that safeguards are “technically sound, effective, and aligned with underlying threat models.”

As of September, ChatGPT had 700 million weekly active users globally.

AI Threat

In an interview clip released on X on Aug. 18 as part of the “Making God” documentary film, Geoffrey Hinton, a computer scientist known as the “godfather of AI,” said he was “fairly confident” AI would drive massive unemployment.

However, “the risk I’ve been warning about the most ... is the risk that we’ll develop an AI that’s much smarter than us, and it will just take over,” Hinton said. “It won’t need us anymore.”

In a July 18 post from Charles Darwin University in Darwin, Australia, Maria Randazzo, an academic at the university’s law school, warned that AI puts human dignity at risk.

While AI is an engineering triumph, it does not exhibit cognitive behavior; these models have no clue what they are doing or why, she said.

“There’s no thought process as a human would understand it, just pattern recognition stripped of embodiment, memory, empathy, or wisdom,” Randazzo said.

“Globally, if we don’t anchor AI development to what makes us human—our capacity to choose, to feel, to reason with care, to empathy and compassion—we risk creating systems that devalue and flatten humanity into data points, rather than improve the human condition.

“Humankind must not be treated as a means to an end.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:40

J6 Pipe Bomber's Motive Revealed In DOJ Pretrial Detention Memorandum

Zero Hedge -

J6 Pipe Bomber's Motive Revealed In DOJ Pretrial Detention Memorandum

Nearly five years after pipe bombs were planted outside the DNC and RNC headquarters on January 5, 2021, authorities arrested Brian Cole Jr. on December 4, 2025. The 30-year-old from Woodbridge, Virginia, now faces charges for allegedly planting those devices. Within hours of the arrest, major outlets rushed to frame Cole as a MAGA adherent. NBC News reported that Cole "believed conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.” Politico ran with the headline, “Justice Department says Jan. 6 pipe bomb suspect believed election conspiracy theories.”

However, the suspects’ own words belie that claim.

The Department of Justice filed a memorandum on December 29 in support of pretrial detention for Cole. The document dismantles the narrative the media pushed following Cole’s arrest. 

According to the filing, Cole initially denied assembling or planting the bombs during his videotaped interview. He claimed he drove his Nissan Sentra to Washington alone to attend a protest about the election outcome. Cole explained his reasoning: "I didn't agree with what people were doing, like just telling half the country that they – that their – that they just need to ignore it. I didn't think that was a good idea, so I went to the protest.

He also described himself as someone who "has never really been an openly political person" and avoids discussing politics with family to prevent conflict. According to Cole, "no one knows" his political views, including his family. After the 2020 election, "when it first seemed like something was wrong" and "stuff started happening," he began following the issue on YouTube and Reddit and felt "bewildered.” Cole believed that if people "feel that, you know, something as important as voting in the federal election is being tampered with, is being, you know, being – you know, relegated null and void, then, like, someone needs to speak up, right? Someone up top.”

Cole felt leaders on "both sides, public figures" should not "ignore people's grievances" or call them "conspiracy theorists," "bad people," "Nazis," or "fascists.” Instead, "if people feel that their votes are like just being thrown away, then . . . at the very least someone should address it.” 

After agents confronted Cole with surveillance video showing him planting the bombs, he admitted he was the individual in the footage. He then walked investigators through the entire process of constructing, transporting, and planting the devices.

Cole stated he assembled the devices in the hours before driving to Washington on January 5, 2021, and cleaned them with disinfectant wipes. He eventually admitted he did not travel to Washington to attend a protest but to plant the devices. 

"When asked why he placed the devices at the RNC and DNC, the defendant responded, 'I really don’t like either party at this point,'" prosecutors said in their filing, describing the interview. “[Cole] also explained that the idea to use pipe bombs came from his interest in history, specifically the Troubles in Ireland. The defendant denied that his actions were directed toward Congress or related to the proceedings scheduled to take place on January 6." 

Cole allegedly said in the interview that he had actually intended for the devices to detonate and set 60-minute timers on both after planting them outside of the DNC and RNC. After leaving them, he said he went to his car, picked up food from a restaurant in Virginia and then returned home. 

When agents returned to the subject of motive, Cole explained that "something just snapped" after "watching everything, just everything getting worse.” 

"In his own words, the defendant did so because he did not 'like either party,' but 'they were in charge' and thus were, in the defendant’s mind, an appropriate target for extreme acts of violence," prosecutors explained. "The defendant’s choice of targets risked the lives not only of innocent pedestrians and office workers but also of law enforcement, first responders, and national political leaders who were inside of the respective party headquarters or drove by them on January 6, 2021, including the Vice President-elect and Speaker of the House." 

The DOJ memorandum presents a picture of someone disenchanted with the entire political system rather than a MAGA activist. Cole's stated motivation centered on frustration with both major parties for their handling of election concerns, and his confession reveals someone who felt compelled to act against the institutions themselves, not in support of one side against the other.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:20

DOJ Subpoenaed Flight Records For Reporter Who Exposed Epstein Scandal

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Subpoenaed Flight Records For Reporter Who Exposed Epstein Scandal

Authored by Ken Silva via HeadlineUSA,

Miami Herald reporter Julie Brown’s late 2018 series on sex offender Jeffrey Epstein contributed to the Justice Department reopening its case against Epstein the next year.

Audrey Strauss, acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, points to a photo of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, during a news conference in New York. / PHOTO: Associated Press

It looks like the DOJ also subpoenaed Brown’s flight records. Brown said she found her name in the recently released “Epstein files”—the trove of documents released by the DOJ earlier this month pursuant to congressional legislation.

What I didn’t expect to see was an American Airlines flight record from 2019 with my full name on them, including my maiden name, which I don’t use professionally. It’s an unusual name, so it’s clear it’s me,” Brown wrote on her Substack.

“The document appears to be details of an itinerary for a series of flights I booked in July just before the SDNY and FBI arrested Epstein.”

According to journalist Michael Tracey, the DOJ may have been tracking Epstein accuser Annie Farmer. Brown and the Miami Herald reportedly booked a flight for her in July 2019.

“Julie K. Brown now says she personally booked this flight. It stands to reason that the DOJ would’ve subpoenaed American Airlines, and other entities, for travel records pertaining to Annie Farmer, as she’d been identified as a purported victim of Epstein/Maxwell,” Tracey said on Twitter/X.

It further stands to reason that Julie K. Brown’s name would appear in these records, as the person who booked the flight on Annie Farmer’s behalf.

Epstein was arrested in July 2019 and found dead in a prison cell a month later.

Meanwhile, the DOJ has yet to release all the Epstein files. The DOJ said last week that it’s found 1 million more records, and is going through them to redact sensitive information.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:00

"I Flagged Them All": Attorney Says US Gov't Investigating Somali Welfare Fraud In Ohio

Zero Hedge -

"I Flagged Them All": Attorney Says US Gov't Investigating Somali Welfare Fraud In Ohio

Allegations of welfare fraud involving Minneapolis daycare centers tied to Somali operators have circulated in the news cycle for years with limited traction; however, it was not until a high-visibility, bombshell investigation by citizen journalist Nick Shirley that the topic was reignited and thrust back into the news cycle. The focus is now shifting from Democrat-run Minneapolis to what is being framed as a potentially nationwide welfare fraud epidemic.

On Sunday, Breitbart News published an interview with Ohio attorney Mehek Cooke, who alleges that members of the Somali community in Ohio have defrauded millions of dollars from the state's Medicaid program.

"So these individuals tried to report the fraud that was happening in Ohio and eventually came to me saying that we are watching providers rubber-stamp paperwork for home health.

And there are many states like this, Pennsylvania and others too, where you can go in and say, 'My aging parent needs home health care. I want to provide it.'

The state will, as long as a doctor has approved it, continue to pay you. It could be for 10 hours, 12 hours, up to 24 hours when it is critical care.

So you could sit at home without caring for an elderly parent who really does not need it and make about $75,000 to $90,000 a year. Now you add two parents, that is $180,000. Now you add your in-laws, $250,000.

You continue to add this and you wonder, what services are actually being provided? So a lot of providers came to me and said fraud is occurring because we refused to rubber-stamp this paperwork.

So they went to other providers in their home health care networks saying, 'We will make it worth your while.' Well, that sounds like a kickback to me.

So we really need to investigate the Medicaid system, how much it has expanded since the Somali population arrived, and who truly needs critical care, because that is meant for the disabled, the elderly, and people who genuinely need it, not for people to live off the system.

And that is what is happening in Ohio. I think it is ridiculous. I think it is despicable. But authorities are now looking at it, from the Attorney General's office to the U.S. Attorney's office.

I flagged them all because these are Ohio tax dollars and we have to take it seriously. I am tired of people telling me, 'Well, this is the way it has always been. It is subjective, and we cannot really check.'

No, you can. Audit America. Audit Ohio now."

Elon Musk, the former DOGE head who was investigating this kind of fraud on the federal level, noted, "The fraud of your taxpayer money is happening nationwide and is liberally applied to attract illegal (and some legal) immigrants who will reliably vote Democrat. The more you look, the more you find. And you don't need to be a world-class detective to figure it out. This is brazen, daylight robbery."

Remember, it was the Democratic Party that threw a fit when DOGE began investigating fraud, waste, and abuse on the federal level. And now we know why. What comes next is likely an expansion of DOGE-esque investigations (perhaps with an army of citizen journalists) aimed at blue states suspected of massive welfare fraud schemes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 14:40

The Consumption Conundrum

Zero Hedge -

The Consumption Conundrum

GDP, released last week, showed that the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 4.3%.

Powering the strong economic growth was personal consumption, which rose by 3.5%.

Consumers are spending!... What’s unusual about that statement is that consumer sentiment remains historically weak.

Typically, there is a strong correlation between personal consumption and consumer sentiment.

As RealInvestmentAdvice.com shares below, the University of Michigan and the Conference Board consumer sentiment indexes are at or near 10-year lows.

Moreover, they are generally worsening, yet personal consumption continues to grow strongly.

Can such a divergence continue?

To help answer that, consider the five bullet points below, which explain why personal consumption has been strong.

  • Wealth Effect: U.S. stock markets will post their third 20%+ increase in a row.

  • Non-discretionary Spending: The mix of spending is leaning towards non-discretionary items. For instance, spending on housing, healthcare, insurance, and travel is increasing as a share of total spending. Many of these expenditures are unavoidable, not confidence-driven impulse purchases. For example, healthcare spending accounted for nearly 20% of consumption.

  • Credit: Rising use of credit cards, buy-now-pay-later, and home equity loans boosts spending in the short term.

  • Savings: Real personal income was flat, thus consumers are using savings, which fell to a historically low 4.7% rate, or credit to meet their needs. Neither is sustainable over the longer run.

  • Inflation: Even if the inflation rate is normalizing, the higher prices of goods and services weigh on consumers’ psyche, in turn making sentiment worse. However, its impact on consumption is not as significant.

But here's the real deciding factor...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 14:20

Black Privilege: Canadian Judge Reduces Sex Offender's Sentence Over Race

Zero Hedge -

Black Privilege: Canadian Judge Reduces Sex Offender's Sentence Over Race

A former university football player who choked a woman until she was almost unconscious and forced another one to give him a blowjob was given a reduced sentence by a Canadian judge of just two years in prison because he's black and was 'feeling intense pressure' at the time of the attacks. 

"It should be noted that but, for the contents of the Impact of Race and Culture Assessment (IRCA), the pre-sentence report and all the mitigating factors surrounding Omogbolahan (Teddy) Jegede, this sentence would have been much higher," Justice Frank Hoskins said in his Nova Scotia Supreme Court decision last Wednesday, the National Post reports. 

The author of an Impact of Race and Culture Assessment, a report funded under a new initiative from the Trudeau Liberals, wrote that Jegede was feeling intense pressure around the time of the assaults and did not have culturally appropriate support to turn to.

Of note, IRCAs are relatively new in Canadian law - and have become popular thanks to an initiative which began under the Justin Trudeau liberals. 

The attacks happened in 2022 and 2023 at residences at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, N.S. - with one woman testifying that Jegede choked her, and the other testifying that she was forced to perform oral sex. Both women said they were physically dominated by Jegede, who is much larger than they are. 

In addition to his two-year jail sentence, Hoskins added three years of probation - which can be reduced if Jegede makes significant progress in counseling. 

The Crown had requested a sentence of up to 36 months, while Jegede's defense asked the judge to reduce his sentence to community service. 

"In my view, this is a case where the need for denunciation is so pressing the incarceration is the only civil way in which to express society’s condemnation of Mr. Jegede’s conduct," said Hoskins, noting that Jegede came from a strong, church-going family with strict parents that had stable careers. The now-convicted sex offender told the court that he grew up feeling loved by his family. 

He then began a degree in kinetics at St.FX, however those studies were interrupted by his sex crimes and subsequent charges. 

Jegede was born in Lagos, Nigeria and immigrated to Canada in 2010. His mother said that the transition to Canada was a significant adjustment for the family, and their youngest son "experienced bullying in elementary school due to his accent and racial identity as a black child."

The Real Victim?

To prepare for his trial, an IRCA was written that looked at this kind of cultural factor, and noted declines in Jegede's classroom performance and mental health in his 2nd and 3rd years at St. FX. Jegede told the author that he struggled with a sense of isolation because he's black in a predominantly white university town.

"I grew up around black people in Brampton and Fort McMurray. Many of them were immigrants, which allowed us to relate to each other on many levels, especially culture. It was like that until I moved to Antigonish to attend university," he said.

Judge Hoskins, reading from the IRCA, said in his decision: "The absence of adult mentors or role models further exacerbated Mr. Jegede’s vulnerability. His parents had hoped his football coach would provide guidance, but this need went unmet."

The judge added that the IRCA "provided valuable insight. It has provided me with an understanding of Mr. Jegede’s background from a social, cultural perspective," but then circled back to the "two very serious sexual assault and offences against two different victims at the same school, in similar circumstances, approximately five months apart, which is concerning, because it suggests that Mr. Jegede may be dangerous … In other words, this is not an isolated incident involving one victim, the nature of both offences and their immediate lasting consequences make them very serious offences."

Hoskins noted that the "primary aggravating factor, in this case, is the violence and serious evasive nature of the sexual assaults, particularly the offence involving (one of the victims), where she was forced to provide Mr. Jegede oral sex, while her movements were being forcefully controlled by (him)."

The judge also addressed the defense's request for community service, saying "I’m in the view that I cannot exclude a federal period of incarceration as a fit and proper punishment for these offences," and arrived at the 24 month sentence by determining 18 months for the more violent and invasive of the two sexual assaults, and six months for the other. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 14:00

Feds Fund Online Game 'Bad Vaxx' To 'Psychologically Inoculate' Vaccine Resistance

Zero Hedge -

Feds Fund Online Game 'Bad Vaxx' To 'Psychologically Inoculate' Vaccine Resistance

Authored by Jon Fleetwood,

U.S. taxpayer funds are being used by federal health agencies to develop and test online psychological games designed to condition how people—especially younger audiences—interpret and respond to vaccine skepticism.

An August Nature Scientific Reports study reveals that the project was funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, through a CDC award administered by the American Psychological Association.

The paper states that the funding totaled “$2,000,000 with 100% funded by CDC/HHS.”

The grant supporting the project is titled “COVID—INOCULATING AGAINST VACCINE MISINFORMATION,” award number 6NU87PS004366-03–02.

That award has already handed out over $4.3 million in taxpayer funds since its activation in 2018.

The project language mirrors the study’s conceptual framework: dissent is treated as exposure to a pathogen, and resistance to dissent is treated as immunity.

The government-funded study centers on the creation and evaluation of an online game called Bad Vaxx.

According to the authors, the purpose of the game is not to examine disputed vaccine claims or to compare competing evidence, but to reduce what they define as “vaccine misinformation” by shaping how players cognitively process vaccine-critical content.

This is despite the CDC’s own VAERS data confirming over 2.7 million injuries, hospitalizations, and deaths linked to vaccines since 1990.

The study authors explain their premise at the outset:

“Vaccine misinformation endangers public health by contributing to reduced vaccine uptake.”

From this premise, the study moves directly to intervention design.

“We developed a short online game to reduce people’s susceptibility to vaccine misinformation.”

The paper frames this approach as a form of psychological prevention, borrowing language from immunology rather than education or debate.

“Psychological inoculation posits that exposure to a weakened form of a deceptive attack… protects against future exposure to persuasive misinformation.”

The Bad Vaxx game operationalizes this concept by training players to recognize four specific “manipulation techniques”: what it refers to as emotional storytelling, fake expertise, the naturalistic fallacy, and conspiracy theories.

These techniques are treated as characteristic of vaccine misinformation as a category.

“The game trains people to spot four manipulation techniques, which previous studies have identified as being commonly used in the area of vaccine misinformation.”

The study does not include a corresponding examination of whether similar persuasive techniques may be used in vaccine-promoting messaging, government communications, or pharmaceutical advertising.

Ironically, the Bad Vaxx project itself relies on the same persuasive architecture it claims to neutralize—emotional framing, authority cues, and repetition—embedded in a gamified format designed to shape intuition rather than invite scrutiny.

The classification of “vaccine misinformation” is established in advance and applied only to information critical of injectable pharmaceutical products.

Throughout the paper, vaccine skepticism is framed as a behavioral and social risk rather than as a possible response to uncertainty, evolving evidence, or institutional error.

The taxpayer-funded authors write:

“Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 predicts lower compliance with public health regulations and lower willingness to get vaccinated.”

The choice of a game as the delivery mechanism is emphasized as a strength of the intervention.

The authors repeatedly describe the format as “entertaining,” “immers[ive],” and scalable, highlighting its ability to shape intuition rather than deliberation.

“A practical, entertaining intervention in the form of an online game can induce broad-scale resilience against manipulation techniques commonly used to spread false and misleading information about vaccines.”

Games function by rewarding correct pattern recognition, reinforcing desired responses, and reducing analytical friction.

The study’s outcome measures reflect this design: discernment scores, confidence ratings, and willingness to share content, rather than independent evaluation of claims or evidence comparison.

The researchers also emphasize the potential reach of such interventions.

“The Bad Vaxx game has the potential for adoption at scale.”

This matters because the funding source is not an academic foundation with no policy stake.

The CDC is the primary federal agency responsible for vaccine schedules, promotion, and uptake.

Yet the study does not address how this institutional role shapes the definition of misinformation used in the intervention, nor does it acknowledge the conflict inherent in a public health authority funding psychological tools aimed at managing disagreement with its own policies.

The dystopian nature of the project emerges from the structure itself: state funding, psychological conditioning, asymmetric definitions, and a delivery system designed to bypass debate in favor of intuition.

What the paper documents, in concrete terms, is the use of taxpayer funds to develop and validate a behavioral intervention—delivered through a medium optimized for psychological conditioning—that trains users to reflexively distrust a predefined category of speech, while exempting vaccine-promoting institutions from equivalent scrutiny.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 13:40

Transcript: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

 

Transcript:

 

This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

Happy holidays, and We have an extra-special holiday podcast at the Newport Ordering Concourse, elegance. I sit down with Jay Leno talking about cars, comedy, watches, and pretty much everything else. Jay’s a fascinating guy who’s created an amazing career.

I thought this conversation was super interesting, and I think you will also, with no further adieu, my conversation with the former host of The Tonight Show, Jay Leno.

Barry Ritholtz: Jay, thank you so much for joining us.

Jay Leno: Thanks for having me. So let’s start out with a little bit talking about your background. Uh, born in New Rochelle, you grew up in, um, Andover, Massachusetts. Which interest came first? Cars or comedy?

Jay Leno: Well, when you grow up in a little rural town, you don’t think of comedy as a job, you know? And I was known to the neighbors as Kathy’s boy wants to be comedian. He’ll grow out of that. He’ll say, don’t worry, Kathy, you, that, that kind of, you know, that kind of mm-hmm. People just, it, it didn’t seem like a viable, you know, you go to Hollywood, you meet kids wanna be lighting directors or costumes or, ’cause they know people that did that. You know, but when you’re in Andover, it’s like, what?

Barry Ritholtz: What sparked your interest in comedy? How did you find the path.

Jay Leno: I had very good teachers when I was in high school. I had a English teacher, Mrs. Hawks, and being dyslexic, I was not the best student. And you know, she said, “Oh, I see making jokes in class and stuff. Do you ever think of writing comedy?” I said, well, I never, I never thought it’d be a job. Oh, you should take, oh yeah, that’s it. She said, “I’ll tell you what. Why don’t you, maybe you could, instead of writing a paper for the final, you give a talk, you know?”

And I said, okay. And I tried to. Put some kid style jokes in and that was the first time in my life I actually enjoyed doing homework and mm-hmm. Well, maybe I can make a living doing this. But as a kid, you know, I think people at a comedians, you tend to remember things that are funny, things that get a reaction, you know?, I was in the fourth grade and Mrs. Allen was my teacher. I always remember this. She was telling us about, Robin Hood. how cruel the Sheriff of Nottingham was, and he would boil Robin’s men in oil, and I’d put my hand up and I said, you, you know why he did that to Tuck? And she said, no. Why? Because he was a Friar. Okay. And then she does one of these. “that’s not funny. Just stop that.” I, oh, see. Oh, she’s kinda laughing, you know. But the real kicker was later in the day, I’m walking past the teacher’s lounge. No, no. Come here. Well, what did you say about Friar Tuck? I said, and I went, oh, she told my joke in the teacher’s lounge and I said, oh. I said, he is a Friar. Oh, that’s was a friar, that’s a very funny thing. I went, oh, that’s, that’s pretty good. And I thought, oh, and when you’re a kid, you, you know people that you tend to remember things that get a laugh.

You just sort of, a little bit of attention. Yeah. You put them in your mind, you try, it makes a little indentation, you know? So that was always something I enjoyed doing. Always remembered it. But again, I never thought. I could make a living doing it.

Barry Ritholtz: Who were your comedic influences when you were growing up?

Jay Leno: Oh, Robert Klein, George Carlin. Richard Pryor, primarily Klein. ’cause Klein was like me, middle class white kid. You know, most comedians at that time tend to be, uh, grew up during the depression. Mm-hmm. And Youngman, uh, all those kind of guys, you know, kids today with the long hair, you know, all that kind of stuff.

Then all along comes Robert Klein. And, and, uh, and, and once again, George Carlin. Richard Pryor, Bill Cosby before the recent turn of events. Uh, you know, so it, it was, yeah, those were my influences.

Barry Ritholtz: Since we’re at the ordering Concourse and Motor Week, let’s talk a little bit about cars. (Good transition, right?)

Your first, your first car was a 34 Ford stock. What’d you do to it?

Jay Leno: I saw my dad and I were driving past the tip top miniature golf in North Reding, Massachusetts. It was parked at the Shell Station with a sale sign. I went and I bought it. Um, what’d you pay for that? $350. Mm-hmm. Which was a lot of money in Yes, in 1965.

But I had been working at McDonald’s and I’d saved some money and, you know, so, and then we dragged it back to my house and I took a couple years to get it running, and then I got my license and I drove it every day to school.

Barry Ritholtz: Self-taught mechanic. What do you mean? You took a couple years to get it?

Jay Leno: Oh, self. Self. Well, yeah, I mean, just. You know, you’re a kid, you’re playing with it after school, you know, that kind of thing. Uh, yeah, it took me a couple of years to learn how to do. Yeah, I guess self-taught would be the fair way to say it. Yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: So 34 Ford is the gateway drug. At what point did you realize this is more than a hobby, something of a passion.

Jay Leno: Well, when I had a garage full of cars, I Perhaps this is, uh, more than a Yeah, yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: Well, how many cars is too many? At what point do you need help?

Jay Leno: Just maintain, well, I have 214 on the road now. Plus the motorcycles.

I watch the show hoarders, and go, the guy’s fine. It’s a problem, man. You can still get to the bathroom. Look, but that’s old newspapers. You have motorcycles and cars. Something a little more reasonable when your parent did the same thing.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you decide of the 214 cars, which one you gonna take that day?

Jay Leno: That’s the first world problem. Mm-hmm. That’s not very much. So people don’t want to hear a rich guy go, how do I decide? I just can’t decide which guy. No. I mean, whatever I’m working on. If I do one oil change a day, it takes 18 months. So, right. You have to look at it that way. Right.

Barry Ritholtz: Watever you’ve just worked on, you say, let me drive it home to see if it’s okay.

Jay Leno: So that’s what I enjoy.

Barry Ritholtz: You’re a little bicoastal, you’re in L A but you also have a place here in Newport?

Jay Leno: I do have a place, and I also have a house in Andover, Massachusetts, where I grew up here.

Barry Ritholtz: Do you, do you keep any cars out here as well?

Jay Leno: No, I don’t. Because of the weather and mm-hmm. You know,

Barry Ritholtz: What do you drive when you get here?

Jay Leno: I’m one of these people. Really my car, you know? If my car was on another coast, oh, that would be horrible. Like, we go out to eat if, if I can’t see the restaurant from my table, we’re not eating here, honey.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m curious how Leno’s Garage came about. I have this fantasy that your accountant says to you…

Jay Leno: No, no, no. I have a garage, I have friends with cameras, I’m on TV already. This seems like a fairly natural transition.

Barry Ritholtz: Why don’t you take the TV hobby and put it on tv and this way you try to mo, um, you know, monetize it as much as you can?

Jay Leno: I did it for nothing for the first, I guess, 15 years. Really? Yeah. You know, just because I enjoyed doing it. It was fun. Um, and it just opens up another, you know, you should have something. I’m not a particularly interesting person. Uh, you know, so if you have other things of interest that other people like, then you have something in common, you can talk about it. So, cars, motorcycles. Anything that rolls, explodes, makes noise is interesting.

Barry Ritholtz: Do you know what the cars, uh, that are top of the list here are gonna be?

Have you walked around, seen much so far? Oh yeah. This, you have some of the best cars in the world here. This is quite an event. You are. And inevitably you see something you’ve never seen before or, or never even heard of.

Jay Leno: You know, the, uh, all countries are working on automobiles. In different, you know, you had cars from Czechoslovakia, the people on the other side of the mountains never heard of. Mm-hmm. You know, like a Tatra, a very unusual car. Most Americas never seen one, but it’s very popular in Czechoslovakia or what was then Czechoslovakia at the time.

So, yeah, so it’s a fascinating hobby and the nice thing about it is it’s no more than really 150 years old. You know, if you, if you like Egyptology, well now you gotta go back 6,000 years and stand in hot sun and dig in the sand. And, uh, you know that with cars, I only have to go back a few years. We, we took a walk down, um, the Boulevard earlier, the two that kind leapt out to me, aside from the Gulling, I know you have one of those was the Talbot Lagos.

Yeah. Spectacular. Yeah. Very interesting guy. They’re very art deco, you know? Yes. It’s only in recent years, cars are seen as kinetic artwork. Right. You know, it used to be just an old car. Mm-hmm. But now people are looking at them and I mean, it’s. You know, you can buy a painting that this for a hundred million dollars.

Right? You get something that rolls down the road, looks pretty, has a practical element to it. So, and only cost a 10th as much. Yeah. Only cost a 10 or sometimes, almost as much you Right. I mean, Ferrari go for the, I think the last Ferrari sold for $75 million. Yeah. I mean it’s pretty crazy. That’s a one of one though, right?

No, no, that’s one of 13. 13, wow. Yeah, I also saw, um, uh, and there wasn’t a sign on it, so I’m doing this. By sight, but a Mercedes SK 500, the giant front fenders has Yeah, yeah. Spectacular. Also, they are, they, I try to enjoy the, the, the, some suspicious things happen in Germany, even. Thirties to the mm-hmm.

Middle forties. I tend to avoid those for obvious reasons. Mm-hmm. But the early ones I love. Yeah. So let, let, let’s talk about some of these classic designs. What do you think has aged especially well? What looks good? Uh, perhaps that wasn’t thought of so well, when it first came out. Oh. Oh, what his age?

Well, I wasn’t thought when it first came. Well, two different court, I mean. Uh, shapes evolve. I mean, uh, cars used to change just for the sake of change. Mm-hmm. Now they change mostly because of aerodynamics and efficiency and, and things of that nature. You know, uh, I mean, a Prius is about an efficient shape as you can get, but it’s not, it’s attractive enough, but it’s not striking.

It doesn’t take your breath away the way. Mm-hmm. Some Ferraris by pin or whatever, you know, back in the, in, in the twenties, thirties, forties, fifties. Things are drawn by hand. So there’s a, there’s a, a flow. Yeah. Flow. Yeah. Like now everything is sort of computer design. You have all these sort of weird angles and things like that, but.

Uh, you know, the best looking cars are both masculine and feminine, like an XKE. Mm-hmm. I don’t know any women that don’t find Jaguars attractive. Even women that don’t know anything about cars, there’s something about, because it has a feminine element to it, but then it has the rear haunches and, and so it has a masculine, so it’s a little bit of both to it.

Mm-hmm. You know. A lot of cars look too brutal. You know, Lamber, goodie, Kosh? Mm-hmm. Those look like guy cars, right? You drive, one of the girls go, how old are you? Yeah, boy toy. You pull ’em a jag, you’re like, Ooh, I like that guy. Yeah. So sometimes the proportions, the shapes, the lines, they speak to everybody.

They’re universal. Yeah. I mean, it’s trick is. Well, if it speaks to everybody, then you have a Corolla. Mm-hmm. You know, the, the best. Cause people, some people love it, some people hate it. Anything that gets emotion going is probably gonna work on some level. You know, I remember talking to Bob Lutz about this when the Viper came out and said, A lot of people think it looks like a cartoon car.

It’s a bit over exaggerated because we’re not trying to sell it to them. We’re trying to sell it to the people who think it looks good and there’s enough of ’em out there, you know? For sure. So, so let’s talk about, um. People have to ask you questions about cars all the time, but they don’t have to.

Actually. Most of ’em just, people must assume. Lots of people do. Yeah. Yeah. When someone asks you for a recommendation, what, what, what do you recommend as a good, cheap set of wheels for a budding enthusiast? Well, you know, there are almost, or for an enthusiast mm-hmm. Or for transportation. Transportation is easy.

I mean, someone who wants something fun for the weekend, well, first they tell me what it is they’re looking for. You know, I, I, I mean obviously el cars, Mustangs, Camaros, things of this nature. Any sort of two seated sports car, uh, yeah, there’s plenty of choices out there. You don’t need me for that. Mm-hmm.

So this event is sponsored in part by Alanga and Sauna. Mm-hmm. Um, we’re both wearing Longa watches. What drew you to watches? See, I paid for mine. So did I. Oh, you did? I paid for mine also. So, so, and you probably have access to more of these than I can get, so, well, it’s interesting, you know, I, I, watchmaking and automotive things have a lot in common ’cause they’re both extremely mechanical.

Mm-hmm. Most watch people don’t really like electric watches the same way they don’t like quartz watches. Mm-hmm. Quart watches are obviously the most accurate you can get, but there’s, don’t appear to have a soul to ’em, you know, with these kind of things, when you turn, you hear the, the, you know. Mm-hmm. It is, it’s a sort of a.

The car, the watch needs you. If you don’t wind it, it won’t run. So there’s a human element that needs to be attached to watch, to get it to the run, you know? And if you flip it over, you can see the absolute spectacular mechanicals on the other side. Yeah. They do a beautiful job. So, so very parallel the, the precision and intricacy of a mechanical watch and a classic automobile.

Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I seen them as somewhat similar. I mean, I like things that need me, you know, my, my cars need me because I need to do certain things to make sure they run correctly. Electric cars kind of run them out of who the master is. Mm-hmm. You know, it’s about like that screen door. After a while, you learn it has to be shut a certain way.

Normal people can’t do it, but you know that you lift it and turn it just a quarter of an inch, oh, it’ll click in. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jay Leno, live from the Newport, a Drain concourse, the elegance, discussing how a career in comedy. And car collecting led to a fascination with mechanical time pieces.

I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jay Leno, comedian, car collector, timepiece enthusiast. Let’s return to our conversation live at the Newport or drain concourse Gonz. What, what are your thoughts on, on the new EVs and hybrids that are coming out?

What, what does this do to the collectible market? I, I believe you have a Tesla plaid, is that right? A Tesla plaid’s a great look. I used my electric card during the week. I mean, sitting on the freeway in a 40, a 1966 Hemi, 4 26, it gets three miles per gallon. Doesn’t really make a lot of sense. You’re not going fast, you’re not, you’re just annoying people and, and poisoning the atmosphere.

So you take your electric car then on the weekends. If there’s a car rally, you drive your Mustang or whatever car you have to the rally, you sit around and you tell lies about it to other people and they tell you lies about their car and you know, it’s a sort of, a little bit of interaction, you know, so, so I mentioned the precision of automobiles and the precision of watches.

You have famously been touring for 40 years, 40 plus years. Um, when you put together a standup set, do you put the same sort of precision into structuring that set as you do? Well, I think, I like to think so. Mm-hmm. I mean, you, you, you, you want to have a joke every six to nine seconds. It’s a bit like spinning plates of the Sullivan show, and then, then you want to keep it going, you know?

So you wanna make sure that the people, you’re not wasting people’s time. I hate when people are, how y’all doing? Woo. Anybody from Boston? Woo. Boston? Yeah. Okay. That’s not comedy. You’ve wasted 40 seconds. You know, get right. Yeah. Keep it moving. You know, when you watch Rodney, Rodney was a, I was a big fan of Rodney Dangerfield, and it was, it was the economy of words.

It’s getting the funniest words you can in the shortest amount of time. You know, Rodney had jokes I loved, like, uh, I worked practice strip joint. It said topless and bottomless. I went in. There was nobody there. I mean, it’s, it’s a funny joke. I mean, ’cause I didn’t waste your time. It wasn’t a three minute setup.

You know, one of his favorite jokes, it’s so stupid. My doctor wanted a semen sample, a stool sample. And a urine sample. So I gave my underpants. I mean, okay. But it’s quick. Boom, boom, boom. You’re not, you’re not wasting people’s time. Really. Interesting. So you’ve been known as somebody who just has toured his whole career, even during, what was it, 22 years of the Tonight Show?

You still were doing standup on a regular basis? Well, when you’re on television, you rely on 175 other people. Mm-hmm. They really can’t do the show without all the elements to it. And when you go out on the road, you’re by yourself. You rise the fall strictly on your own ability. And I, I, I like that you get all the blame, but you also get all the glory.

And, and I, I like that. Plus it’s piecemeal, right? Joke, tell joke, get checked, boom. Next show nobody says, you know the joke she told two months ago, they’re not working out. Come back. You gotta come back and do the show again. You don’t have to do that. You know? Mm-hmm. On tv you get, there’s so many irons in the fire and whatnot.

You’re dealing with. You know, and my, my favorite TV line of all time when NBC was letting me go, I said, you know, I’ve been number one for 23 years, well for 18, 18 of the 23 years. And they said, we want what’s above number one? I said, okay, what, uh, what is above? What is above number? I mean, just made me laugh.

And even they realize how stupid that song. I said, what do you mean? How can you have, what’s a above? Just tell me, somebody tell me what it, yeah. Just made me laugh. Sorry. So since this is Bloomberg, a financial network. Yeah, let’s, let’s talk a little bit about money. Alright. You are known as someone who is savvy with your money.

You only spent the money you earned doing standup. Well, I’m not savvy. I’m dyslexic. Yeah. Okay. So consequently I don’t really understand it. All I know is money. My I work and my money relaxes. That’s my, I don’t want my money out working for me. Because he’s gonna screw up somewhere. I don’t want that.

Right. Whenever I hear, and there’s minimal risk, and I hear the word risk. Mm-hmm. And minimal. So that means I’m gonna lose something, right? No, no. I, no, I don’t. I always had, even as a kid, I worked at Wilmington Ford, I worked in McDonald’s. Whichever job made the most I banked and the other money was my, you did the same with The Tonight Show.

You banked The Tonight Show. I never touched a check in 22 years from The Tonight Show. That’s amazing. I banked everything and I lived on the money I made as a comedian. Then when I, when I, uh, when the show ended it, oh, I opened this little pass book. Oh look, this. It’s quite a bit of money here, you know?

This is good. Yeah. So when you started collecting cars, did you ever envision this collection would get this large No. No. Or this valuable? No. I never thought that, no. When I, I remember I would sleep in the alleys in New York and it was the most depressing. I remember sleeping on the alley. It was one of those alleys where guys would come with hookers and I’d be in the back just hiding behind some trash cans and they were doing whatever.

Really, this is my life now. I mean, it was like. It’s the most horrible that really on the road you were that hard travel. I remember on 44th and ninth it was Dikes. Lumberyard, right across the way and from from the alley where I slept a couple of nights I could see dikes lumberyard. I always had that in my mind, and hookers would come in and they’d just, just horrible.

It’s a terrible, they just hear terrible sounds horrible. I said, really? This is my life. This is what it is now. You know? So everything better than that was gravy. Yeah. Well, it’s been a little bit of gravy. You recently had a, uh, gulling, you found in a barn you’ve had a number of barn. No, no. I, no, I didn’t.

I didn’t buy that. I didn’t buy, that car was found. It was sold for $10 million and we had the owner You had it on the show? We had it on the show, yes. I did not. I, I would like to have owned that car, but no, I didn’t buy it. Didn’t you find a number of barn fines, cars? Oh yeah. Sure, sure. What, what are some of the more memorable ones?

Um. Well, the most recent one was a 1963 Jaguar XKE. Uh, the guy bought it in 62, started drinking about 66, 67. He became a hoarder, just had trash piled on top of it. Uh, when he died, the family called me, they said, uh, cars right across the street. Uh, my uncles had some kind of car. We didn’t know what it was.

And it was a Jaguar. And I, I said, and, and this is really the best way. I said, look, Google it. Find out what’s it worth. Okay. Find out what they’re worth and let me know and I’ll pay you that. And that’s what I did. Seems fair. Yeah. I, I mean, I paid more than a fair price. Mm-hmm. Because I, I don’t flip cars.

I don’t sell cars. So to me, this way, nobody goes, you wanna rip me? I don’t, you don’t want any of that? Any cars on your list that you’re still, uh. Hunting for anything you’d like to have? No, you know, I buy, I buy the story as much as I buy the car. Really? Yeah. I mean, to me the fun, you know, I had a lady call me 94 years old, and she and her Hudson, her and her husband bought a 51 Hudson Hornet in New Jersey.

They drove it to California with their two kids. He bought a gas station. He ran that for the next 30 years. He died sometime in the early nineties. She calls me about 2000, I guess. Three, four. Uh oh. My husband died like 20 years ago. We got this car. I say I already have a 5,300 will come look at it. Okay, so I gotta look at it.

She’s 94, no hearing air, no glasses, right? And she said, would you gimme $5,000 for her? Okay. So I bought it. I take it back to my garage. It takes about a year and a half. We get it off and let me see if she’s still alive. I call her up. Hello? Oh, it’s jaylenn off. I said, the car’s all finished. You want to go for a ride?

She goes, okay, now she’s 96. Okay. And she says, can I bring the kids? I said, yeah, bring the kids. So I get there and the kids have got a blindfold and the kids are 74 and 72 and they’re blindfolded or right. And she’s like touching the car. Oh, the paint feels so smooth. Oh, it used to be so rough. We’ll take the blind.

Oh, she starts crying. We wanna go for, let’s go for araj. So the kids get in the back. Right. So we’re driving along and we’re talking, and the two kids start doing this to each other, poking each other, right? And, and she turns around. I, I told you kids, and she’s whacking the crap out of me. Mr. Leno was nice enough to take us a ride in his car, and you kids can’t be here.

And the three of them are just laughing. I mean, they’re just falling down. And she, and she’s not holding back. I mean, she’s really hitting them, but she’s laughing while she’s hitting them, you know? And it was just so funny. It was just so funny. She lived to be 106. Wow. And every time I get in that car, it makes me laugh.

’cause it was just so fun to see these, these two old men and they all look the same age. You know, she’s 96, they’re 74, and, and she just whacking the crap out of hilarious. So more stories than there’s a hole in your collection or you’re enamored with this? No, don’t have a hole. I know. I have enamored with this.

No, it’s just about the stories. You know, my key to success is low self-esteem. I’ve heard you say that before. Yes. Yes. Because. If you have low cycle esteem, you never assume you’re the smartest person in the room. I assume one of the dumbest person in the room. So let me look around and see what the other people are doing here, and that’s what you do.

You know, I have so many friends that do TV shows and they really think, I don’t like, I wanna change these lights. And the lighting director who’s been in the business 40 years, I don’t think, no wait, I wanna change. Well, no. Why? Why don’t just let the lighting director do his job? You know, the fun thing about the Tonight Show was when I did it, anybody could pull, pull a cord and stop the train because I don’t like this.

I don’t think this is funny. Did it get to be annoying sometimes? But everybody felt they had a, a say in what was going on. It felt like they were part of the whole system. This idea that, you know, do not make eye contact with the star and just all that kind of nonsense, you know? So to me that was always the key to, to, to being successful.

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I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jay Leno, comedian, car collector, timepiece enthusiast. Let’s return to our conversation live at the Newport or drain concourse Gonz. So, so let’s stay with, um, the Tonight Show and comedy.

All right. Um, you’ve interviewed a few presidents, right? Right. Um, you interviewed Barack Obama. Who, what other presidents did you interview? Uh, was Barack Obama. Was Reagan before you, uh, started on, no, I, I interviewed Reagan. They had dinner with Reagan at the White House a couple times, but he wasn’t ever on the show.

Barack Obama was the first sitting president ever to do the show. Mm-hmm. Um. Uh, Barack Obama, Hillary had the nomination locked up and then he announced he was running for president. So I called him up and said, wanna come on the show? Oh, we’ll call. Thank you so much. You know, he rented a car, drove himself to the show, you know, walks out.

I goes, Hey, my name’s Barack was saying Obama. I’m running the president of the United. I said, okay, black guy from Chicago named Hussein. I said, you know, you shouldn’t even have to campaign. I just think you, you’re shooing with that. And you know, he got the joke and he’d laugh and he was very funny. And we got to be friends.

And so next time he came on the show, I asked him, it was the first time a sitting president and the whole parking lot was tented. Mm-hmm. So a satellite could not see where, when it came in, where it came in, couldn’t tell. Yeah. And I mean, I’ve told this story, but this is. I have the same idiot friends I had in eighth grade, so I’m telling him I had Barack Obama on the show and he gave me this phone number.

Nah, Uhuh Uhhuh. Uhuh Uhhuh. You don’t get it. You said you now, alright, let’s call him up. I go, I’m, it’s surprising the United States, I’m not gonna call him up. No, you don’t have it now. Uhuh Uhhuh now Uhuh Uhhuh. So I, I take out my phone book and I cover the phone and they go, see what it says there. Barack Obama president, the United States, his phone number is right under here.

You you? I said alright. Alright. I’ll call him. You want me to call him? Ill call. It’s like three o’clock, I figure. Okay, what can go wrong? Yeah. Hello, Brock Here. Mr. President. Yeah. Jay Leno. We’re gonna do vj. I’m just here with some of my friends. Lose this number. Jay, click. So your reputation has never been, uh, a very political.

Uh, comedian, you play it straight down the middle. Well, I used to get, we used to get quoted every day in the New York Times. We, we, we tried to make fun of both sides. Yeah. Mm-hmm. But yeah, that’s the way we did it. That’s not the way everybody else does it, but that’s okay. So, so recently Jimmy Kimmel mentioned on the air that you called to check in on him when, when he was temporarily suspended.

Uh, is what do you think the future of late night looks like? And and what does that say about the comedians have to watch what they say. Well, apparently they don’t have to watch what they say ’cause he’s back on tv. Mm-hmm. Okay. I mean, you either believe in free speech or you don’t, you know, free speech.

It only becomes annoying when it says something you don’t like. Mm-hmm. Other than that, it’s fine. And that that’s really the only, the only problem. And there’s always something somebody doesn’t like, whether it’s banning books or Huck Finn or whatever it might be. Uh, so to me, I, I always support street. I mean, I support Jimmy as a comedian, but also just the whole premise.

You don’t have to agree with him to realize. I mean, I, I, I had people that tore me apart every day. But they had the right to do it. I, I, I didn’t like what they said, but I agree with their right to say it if they chose. Yeah. You, you have Dave Chappelle speaking at the comedy festival in Saudi Arabia.

Mm-hmm. Saying he feels like, uh, free speech is under assault in the us. Uh, not that Saudi Arabia is a hotbed of free speech. Well, yeah, yeah. Again, I, I don’t like this new thing of comics criticizing other comics. We’re comedians. Okay. Just, you know, I believe in free speech. I, I shouldn’t have to say any more than that and I will defend it.

To the end, but, you know, and how about when he said this again, whatever, I don’t have to agree with it. Mm-hmm. You know, it’s like the Nazis marching in Skokie. Okay. They, they have the right to do that. I don’t agree with it. Well, I He like to see someone punch them in the face. Yes. But I don’t want that to be police doing it.

If some angry Jewish guy was about, well, okay, it’s fine with me, you know, I might even cheer him on, but I’m, no, I, I, I, again, I think you hit. It’s America. You have the right. And what about the, in the era of streaming, what about the future of late night? We heard Colbert is supposedly not profitable. I don’t know how true that is.

We heard similar threats about Jimmy’s show. How do you look at, you were a steward of the Tonight Show for 22 years. What do you think the future of this looks like? Well, I, I, I mean, when you could turn on streaming. And see Harrison Ford talk for half an hour saying whatever you want unscripted. Or you could watch him do a seven minute segment on a talk show, which you gonna do?

Or Jay Leno for 45 minutes unscripted. Yeah. But yeah. Well, I mean, to me, I think it just, the nature of television, it, it changes. It goes from one thing to another. I mean, it’s like going from CD players to cas cassettes, to CDs to it is just another. It’s another format that, that you can, that you can use.

So, uh, the thing that really kills late night is the incessant number of commercials. Mm-hmm. After 1130, you can run like nine minutes at 12 o’clock where some crazy. Yeah. It’s crazy. It’s wild. Yeah. So, and when you realize you’ve just watched all three Godfather movies in a row without one commercial, suddenly seeing Jake from State Farm again.

You know, okay, enough with this guy, you know, to me that’s the thing that’s really hurt. Late night. It’s not necessarily what people say. It’s the fact that people, oh God, another commercial, you just, you know, reading through. All right. So we don’t want to keep you all day ’cause we know you have a lot of places to go, cars to see.

Alright, I wanna, I wanna do a speed round, uh, a speed round, right. A dozen questions in under a minute. I’m just gonna throw these at you and, and gimme your answers. Alright. Starting with, what’s your favorite car to drive a dusenberg, what’s your favorite motorcycle in your garage? Uh, brush superior. What car offers the best bang for the buck?

Corvette, what’s your favorite car in your collection? Not necessarily a driver, but just the favorite car. Uh, McLarin one. That’s, that’s tough one to argue with. What’s been the biggest maintenance annoyance in your collection? Uh, my 1925 Doble Steam car. The one that kind of blew up. Is that the one we’re talking about?

That blew up, but that wasn’t the one that actually blew up in my face. No. Any cars you have any regrets passing on? Oh yeah. Was all. What modern car features do you find most annoying? Uh, probably the infotainment system. Uh, you know, I have my 51 Hudson. I reach out, I press a button, I get a station. I don’t have to stop and look at it.

Are you happy this thing? Yes. Would you make this election again? Yes. Others have made this election. Would you continue? Yes, I would. You know, would you pick your language? English is good. Thank you. You know, I it annoying. Um, what car do you drive the most often from your collection? Oh, I don’t know. Uh, well, hmm.

I drive a lot of them. Cardo. Uh, that’s what they were made for. A model t’s kind of fun, I guess I don’t drive it that much. Uh, probably the Mustang. That’s pretty good. Well, actually the Tesla won’t have to go to the airport and all those kind of things. What, what’s the rarest car in your collection? Not necessarily the most valuable, but one of very few.

Well, that would be the double steam car. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, is there any one brand you would never buy that you stay away from? No, no, not everyone breaks you. You don’t have a lot of Ferrari, right? No, I don’t have any Ferrari. But it has nothing to do with the cars. The cars are excellent. You know, for the longest time you had to buy two Manial before you’re allowed to buy the car.

You, you know, so I just never took part in that. What car surprises people the most, whether driving it or just the way it’s put together? Well, I have the kind of cars people. Not surprised that I got there earlier, late. They’re surprised I got there at all. When you show up in a 1906 Stanley Steamer and it’s on fire, people like, oh my God, your car’s on fire.

Yeah, I know. It’s supposed to. It’s supposed to be. You carry open flame in. Um, what’s the most recent addition to the collection? A Mustang, GTD. What’s the best sounding engine you own? Uh uh, um, Porsche GT V 10. And final question. Oh, is, is there one dream car you’re still hunting for? No. No. I’m, I’m, I’m.

Quite happy with what I have. Like I said, be happy what you have. Just make sure you have enough. There you go. Thank you Jay, for being so generous time. Alright, well thank, thank you. Thank you.

That was my live interview with Jay Leno at the Newport Audrey Concourse Elegance. If you enjoyed that conversation, check out any of the 592 we’ve done over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And be sure to check out my new book, how Not to Invest the ideas, numbers, and Behavior that Destroys Wealth and how to avoid them at your favorite bookstore or book seller.

I would be remiss if I did not thank the correct team that puts these conversations together each week. My videographer at the live event was Sebastian Escobar. Alexis Noriega is my video producer, Anna Luke is my podcast producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast here at Bloomberg.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

 

 

~~~

 

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week appeared first on The Big Picture.

The AI Arms Race Is Cracking Open The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Zero Hedge -

The AI Arms Race Is Cracking Open The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

  • The abstract "cloud" of artificial intelligence possesses a massive, structural demand for 24/7 "baseload" power that is equivalent to adding Germany's entire power grid by 2026, a need intermittent renewables cannot meet.

  • Decades of underinvestment have resulted in a widening uranium supply deficit, with mined uranium expected to meet less than 75% of future reactor needs and an incentive price of $135/lb required to restart mothballed mines.

  • Big Tech hyperscalers are privatizing energy security by locking in clean baseload nuclear power via long-term agreements, effectively making the public grid's "service" secondary to the "compute-ready" requirements of major platforms.

We are seeing a violent collision between two worlds: the high-speed, iterative world of artificial intelligence and the slow, grinding, capital-intensive world of nuclear physics. 

Data from a survey of over 600 global investors reveals that 63% now view AI electricity demand as a "structural" shift in nuclear planning. This isn't a temporary spike or a speculative bubble. It is the physical footprint of every Large Language Model (LLM) query finally showing up on the global balance sheet.

For years, the energy narrative was dominated by "efficiency." We were told that better chips would offset higher usage. That era is over. Generative AI doesn't just use data; it incinerates energy to create it.

Why the "Efficiency" Narrative Failed

The "Reverse-Polish" reality of AI is that the more efficient we make the chips, the more chips we deploy, and the more complex the models become. This is Jevons Paradox playing out in real-time across the data centers of Northern Virginia and Singapore.

When you look at the energy density required for an AI hyperscale center, you aren't looking at a traditional office building. You are looking at a facility that pulls as much power as a mid-sized city, but does so with a 99.999% uptime requirement.

Traditional demand models simply didn't account for a single industry deciding to double its power footprint in less than five years. S&P Global Energy recently highlighted that data center electricity consumption could hit 2,200 terawatt-hours (TWh). 

Intermittent renewables…the darlings of the corporate ESG report…cannot provide the 24/7 "baseload" these machines require...

The hyperscalers have realized that if they want to dominate AI, they need to secure physical atoms before the other guy does.

The $135 Ceiling and the Mining Reality Gap

While the demand side is moving at the speed of software, the supply side is stuck in the mud of 20th-century industrial timelines.

The uranium market is currently a "two-speed" machine. On one hand, you have short-term spot price volatility that makes traders nervous. On the other, you have a long-term supply deficit that is widening like a canyon. 

Data suggests that mined uranium will meet less than 75% of future reactor requirements.

We are living through the consequences of twenty years of underinvestment. After 2011, the world essentially stopped looking for uranium. We lived off the "secondary supply"...old Cold War warheads and utility stockpiles. Those stockpiles are now effectively exhausted.

More than 85% of investors surveyed anticipate uranium prices hitting the $100–$120/lb range by 2026. Some are looking at $135/lb.

I see these numbers, and I don't see "growth." I see a desperate incentive price. $135 isn't a sign of a healthy market… it is the price required to beg miners to reopen mothballed pits and navigate the ten-year permitting hellscape required for a greenfield project.

Mining is a "boots-on-the-ground" reality that doesn't care about digital timelines.

Who Collects the Equity and Who Pays the Bill?

There is a massive shift happening in the power dynamics of infrastructure. For decades, nuclear power was a public service…state-funded, state-regulated, and built for the citizen.

Now, we are seeing the "Private Platform" era of nuclear energy. When a hyperscaler signs a twenty-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with a nuclear utility, they are effectively "locking in" the best, cleanest baseload power for private profit.

The question we aren't asking: who pays for the grid upgrades to support this?

The hyperscalers want the green electrons to satisfy their net-zero pledges, but the physical copper and transformers required to move that power often fall on the rate-paying public or the state. We are witnessing the privatization of energy security.

If 63% of investors are right and AI is the new driver of nuclear planning, the "public service" aspect of the grid is about to become a secondary concern to the "compute-ready" requirements of Big Tech.

The equity is being collected by the tech platforms and the uranium miners. The risk is being socialized by the grid.

The Geopolitical Reality of Uranium Supply

We cannot talk about the uranium market without talking about the "Iron Fist" of state policy. The West is currently trying to rebuild a supply chain that it intentionally dismantled.

The U.S. and Europe are aggressively pushing "sustainable finance frameworks" to include nuclear, but they are doing so while facing a massive bottleneck in enrichment and conversion capacity…much of which is still tied to Russian state interests.

China, South Korea, and the UAE aren't waiting for the market to "find a price." They are treating nuclear as a matter of national survival. China is currently building more reactors than the rest of the world combined.

They understand something the West is only just realizing: you cannot run a 21st-century economy on 19th-century energy densities.

If the uranium supply remains constrained, we won't just see higher prices. We will see a geopolitical scramble for "off-take" agreements. The nation that secures the uranium secures the AI lead.

The "vibe" of energy abundance is a lie...We are entering an era of energy rationing by price.

The Technical Friction: Steel vs. Code

The most significant gap in the current market "bull case" is the technical audit of the hardware.

The survey data shows that investors are betting on "restarts" and "greenfield developments" to close the supply gap. But you can't just pour money into a hole and expect uranium to come out the next day.

Uranium mining is plagued by:

  • Water Management Issues: Especially in places like Kazakhstan (the world's largest producer), where sulfuric acid shortages have already hampered production targets.

  • Labor Scarcity: We have a generation of mining engineers who were told nuclear was dead. They didn't go to school for this.

  • The Enrichment Bottleneck: Even if you have the yellowcake, you need to turn it into fuel. The West's capacity to do this is currently maxed out.

Sprott Asset Management correctly notes that utilities can only defer procurement for so long. Eventually, they have to buy. When they do, they will find a market where the physical steel and the chemical reagents are in shorter supply than the capital.

The "catch-up trade" of 2026 isn't just about price. It’s about the reality that we forgot how to build big things in the physical world.

The Bill for the Utopia

We are being sold a vision of AI-driven abundance…health breakthroughs, autonomous cities, and limitless productivity.

But to get that utopia, we need to solve a uranium deficit that has been building for twenty years. 

We need to build reactors at a pace not seen since the 1970s. 

And we need to do it while the primary producers are facing technical and geopolitical headwinds.

The $100–$120/lb range is just the beginning. If the supply response doesn't materialize…and given the 15-year lead times, why would it?  We are looking at a permanent state of high-cost energy for everyone who isn't a trillion-dollar tech company.

We are finally moving from a world of "clicks" back to a world of "kilowatts"...And the kilowatts are getting very, very expensive.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 12:20

Russia 'Confidently Advancing' In Ukraine, Over 30 Settlements Captured In December: Putin

Zero Hedge -

Russia 'Confidently Advancing' In Ukraine, Over 30 Settlements Captured In December: Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear to both his citizens and to the world that the 'special military operation' in Ukraine will continue on until all goals are achieved, and that his forces are advancing 'confidently'.

He chaired a televised meeting with the country's top military officials, focused on a status update regarding Ukraine, and crucially coming the day after Presidents Trump and Zelensky met in Florida in a failed effort to reach breakthrough on the proposed peace deal. Moscow is pressing ahead with its goal of fully capturing and pacifying the four Ukrainian regions it declared part of the Russian Federation in fall of 2022 via a 'popular referendum'.

"The goal of liberating the Donbas, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions is being carried out in stages, in accordance with the plan of the special military operation," Putin described before underscoring, "The troops are confidently advancing."

Sputnik/Reuters

At the meeting it was also announced that Russian troops have made more gains in the last 24 hours, especially the capture of Dibrova village in Donetsk region.

According to an update of the meeting via RT translation, battlefield gains of the past month are significant:

In December, Russian forces liberated over 700 square kilometers of territory, taking some 32 settlements under control, Gerasimov said at the meeting. This month, the military has shown the highest rate of progress in the entire outgoing year, he noted, adding that troops are advancing “along virtually the entire frontline.”

"The adversary is not undertaking any active offensive actions. They have concentrated their main efforts on strengthening their defenses and are attempting to slow the pace of our advance by conducting counterattacks in isolated areas and using drones en masse," Gerasimov said.

The Kremlin has at the same time reiterated that it is not interested in a 'Plan B or Plan C' in terms of a peace deal, but that it only seeks lasting political settlement. This will of course include international recognition of its territories in the Donbass.

According to highlights the Russian president’s speech after his meeting with top defense officials, via a TASS and Al Jazeera compilation:

  • Attempts by Ukraine to interfere with the Russian army in Kupiansk must be decisively suppressed.
  • The capture of Siversk allows for the development of offensives towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
  • Prospects for the complete capture of the Donbas territory have been discussed.
  • Expansion of the security zone along the Russian-Ukrainian border is on the table.
  • Troops have broken through the Ukrainian defences and are advancing towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.

Putin, surrounded by his generals, is making clear to the world that he remains in the driver's seat - with all the leverage on the field of battle - and that Zelensky has no cards to play.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 12:00

The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail

Zero Hedge -

The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

There is a rising market risk in 2026 that is largely overlooked as we wrap up this year. As discussed in the “Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative,” optimism about 2026 is running high.

Currently, investors are pricing in strong economic growth, robust earnings, and a smooth path of disinflation. Notably, Wall Street estimates suggest a significant acceleration in corporate profits, particularly among cyclical stocks and small- to mid-cap sectors. To wit:

“Wall Street currently expects the bottom 493 stocks to contribute more to earnings in 2026 than they have in the past 3 years. This is notable in that, over the past three years, the average growth rate for the bottom 493 stocks was less than 3%. Yet over the next 2 years, that earnings growth is expected to average above 11%.”

“Furthermore, the outlook is even more exuberant for the most economically sensitive stocks. Small and mid-cap companies struggled to produce earnings growth during the previous three years of robust economic growth, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, next year, even if the Fed’s soft landing narrative is valid, they are expected to see a surge in earnings growth rates of nearly 60%.”

There is nothing wrong with having an optimistic outlook when it comes to investing; however, “outlooks can change rapidly,” which is a significant market risk, particularly when expectations and valuations are elevated.

Notably, these forecasts rest on an assumption that the economy will not only avoid recession but reaccelerate in the face of waning inflation. As noted, equity markets have responded by pushing valuations higher across major indexes, with price-to-earnings ratios well above historical medians. Simultaneously, investors have rewarded narratives built on the idea of a soft landing and a return to pre-pandemic trends.

However, this narrative appears to overlook the trends in recent economic data. Inflation expectations have moderated, not because of increased demand, but due to weaker consumption and cooling labor dynamics. As recent economic data indicate, disinflation has accompanied slower GDP growth and a decline in personal consumption momentum. If the economy were indeed set to reaccelerate, these trends should be increasing rather than returning to historical averages.

The soft landing thesis posits a benign cycle in which inflation declines, growth remains stable, and earnings increase. Yet, that outcome would be historically rare. When inflation falls this quickly, it typically reflects a slowdown in demand rather than policy success. Additionally, the strong relationship between economic growth and earnings should not be dismissed. That disconnect exposes investors to market risk if growth does not materialize as expected and valuations are reconsidered.

With analysts expecting strong revenue growth and margin expansion despite rising input costs, global uncertainty, and declining employment, a market priced for perfection leaves little room for earnings misses or growth shocks. If those optimistic assumptions fail, market risk could rise abruptly.

Let’s dig in.

Structural Headwinds

As noted above, earnings growth is fundamentally tied to economic growth. When demand exceeds supply, companies expand output, raise prices, and increase profits. As discussed recently, this is why, without inflation, there can not be economic growth, increasing wages, and an improving standard of living. In other words, for there to be stronger economic growth and rising prosperity, prices must increase over time. Such is why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, thereby supporting 2% economic growth and stable employment levels.

However, the employment data over the last year doesn’t tell a story of substantial employment, rising wages, or a trend suggesting a more robust economic outlook. Instead, the latest data confirmed a deceleration in economic activity, as full-time employment (as a percentage of the population) declined.

The importance of full-time employment should not be readily dismissed. Full-time employment pays higher wages, provides family benefits, and allows for an expansion of consumption. The decline in full-time employment currently is normally associated with recessions rather than expansions. Economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower, given that employment, particularly full-time employment, supports economic supply and demand.

Furthermore, economic growth relies heavily on consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. For that consumption to persist or grow, consumers must have rising incomes, which come from employment and wage growth. Without job creation or real wage increases, consumption growth stagnates, and the earnings narrative breaks down. As shown, when economic growth declines, so do earnings growth rates.

Recent employment data show cracks in this cycle. While headline job numbers suggest continued hiring, the quality and composition of those jobs are weakening. Today we see part-time workers filling full-time positions, often with lower pay and fewer benefits. Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, and many prime-age workers are not returning. Most notably, the negative revision of every monthly employment report in 2025 further undermines the “strong economy” narrative.

Even where wages are rising nominally, inflation-adjusted wages tell a different story. Real wage growth has been flat or negative in several key sectors. As housing, energy, and service prices remain high, the squeeze of disposable income increases. As such, consumers compensate by drawing down savings or using credit, both of which are unsustainable long-term strategies.

The market risk in 2026, is that for corporate earnings to accelerate and meet Wall Street’s expecations, the consumer must be healthy. That means rising real wages and broad-based job creation. Without those pillars, top-line revenue growth slows, and margin pressures increase. Analysts projecting double-digit earnings growth into 2026 are assuming a demand-driven economy without the income growth needed to support it. That assumption is increasingly fragile. Without real economic growth, earnings become a product of financial engineering or cost-cutting, not organic expansion. Markets are pricing in a demand surge that the employment data do not confirm.

If this disconnect persists, Wall Street will revise earnings expectations lower.

Valuation Fragility

That last sentence is the most crucial. With valuations near cycle highs, (the S&P 500 trades at over 22x times forward earnings, which is well above its long-term average), such assume strong earnings growth and low discount rates. Yet both assumptions are vulnerable. If economic growth undershoots, earnings revisions will follow. Historically, earnings have tended to lag behind the economic cycle. As consumption softens, revenue growth stalls. Margins then compress, especially for companies with high labor or financing costs, and with narrow market breadth and concentration in mega-cap names, the market risk is a sudden repricing of those expectations.

Credit risk premiums remain compressed across all asset classes, from high-yield to investment-grade, which reflects a belief in Fed control and continued monetary easing. If those beliefs are shaken, volatility will return. Market participants are not expecting a scenario where all risk assets decline simultaneously, including stocks, crypto, precious metals, and international markets.

Implications for Investors

The market risk for investors is not a 2008-style collapse. However, a far more likely scenario is a long period of underperformance. That underperformance will likely be a function of earnings disappointment, weak growth, and multiple compression. Market analysts are currently pricing the market for acceleration. But those views may struggle is stagnation, and the “path of least resistance,” shifts from upward momentum to sideways drift or correction.

As such investors should continually monitor and assess the risk they are taking in portfolios.

  • Reassess exposure to high-multiple equities and overconcentrated sectors. While technologty drives index performance, valuations are high and if growth expectations are too high, tech earnings will likely fail to meet them. The same applies to consumer discretionary stocks tied to fragile spending.

  • Consider a more defensive position, focusing on free cash flow, balance sheet strength, dividends, and pricing power.

  • Add bonds to your portfolio to protect prinicpal and create income. Furthermore, in the event of a risk-off rotation, investors will seek the safety of bonds to reduce portfolio risk. Being there before the correction occurs can be beneficial to outcomes.

  • Liquidity should always be a priority. If risk aversion returns, liquidity conditions can tighten quickly. Investors consider a scenario where risk assets (stocks, commodities, metals, and cryptocurrencies) decline sharply as risk resets

A prudent approach is to reduce exposure to narrative-driven assets and increase allocations to quality. Investors should favor sectors with consistent earnings, low leverage, and stable dividends. Cash remains underappreciated as a strategic tool, and with real yields positive and volatility likely to rise, liquidity is a source of optionality.

The next two years will test the soft landing thesis. If growth falls short, earnings disappoint, or inflation returns, markets will face a reset. That reset may not be dramatic, but it will be painful for those overexposed to the current consensus.

The best defense is valuation discipline, risk awareness, and a willingness to question the prevailing narrative.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:40

Nigerians Applaud Trump's Military Strikes On Islamic Terrorists

Zero Hedge -

Nigerians Applaud Trump's Military Strikes On Islamic Terrorists

Trump's military strikes against Islamic terror groups in Nigeria have been met with overall applause by Nigerian citizens and migrants residing in the US.  Authorities say the groups have links to jihadist networks in Mali and Niger and their members have settled in border communities, recruiting young people and imposing brutal controls.

Associated Muslim militants were responsible for numerous attacks on Christian communities and schools in the country in early 2025, including the coordinated massacre of 280 Christian farmers in the village of Yelwata; many victims burned alive or hacked to death. It was one of the worst single incidents of Christian slaughter in the past decade.

In a national statement, Nigeria's information ministry said "precision strike operations" had been carried with the "explicit approval" of President Bola Tinubu and with "the full involvement of the armed forces of Nigeria".  Trump brought global exposure to the attacks on Christians in the region, accusing the Nigerian government of apathy in the face of genocide. 

The event is being framed as a "joint operation" between Nigeria and the US, however, it is likely that international attention forced the hand of the current regime to cooperate with US military operations.  Nothing would have been done about the militants had Trump not stepped in.

Many Christian Nigerians abroad and migrants in the US are optimistic about the country's prospects for peace and have applauded the strikes.  Nigeria is 56% Muslim and 43% Christian.  The northern provinces, controlled by Muslims, have instituted Sharia Law despite the country having a "secular constitution."  This has created religious tensions across the nation and helped to enable escalating Islamic militant attacks. 

      

It's good to see at least one group of third world migrants showing appreciation for US efforts.  

The establishment media in the west, however, is not happy about Trump's efforts in Africa, and has been working diligently to deny that the conflict is driven by religious motives.  Though they are forced to admit that the strikes have had a positive effect on Nigeria's Christian population, they continue to frame the killings of villagers as "land disputes" (take note of the seemingly scripted propaganda planted in the AP report below).

The motives of the media are obvious; third world immigration is an integral part of the multicultural agenda to destabilize the west and admitting that Islamic migrants might be a security hazard hurts that agenda.  They could not be more transparent, given the fact that journalists immediately tried to make the issue about immigration once news of the strikes hit the new feeds.

Western journalists have accused Trump of hypocrisy because of his block on immigration from a number of African nations including Nigeria.  They argue that Trump does not really want to help Christians because he won't allow Nigerians to come to the US to escape the sectarian violence.

However, simply claiming to be Christian is not enough to gain US citizenship.  Trump's position is clear - Third world populations need to fix their own countries rather than running to the US.  Despite the socialist "melting pot" narrative, America has never been obligated to take on the refugees of the world.  The Trump Administration's intervention in Nigeria only shows that the President is serious about those people staying where they are so they can repair or replace their broken government.   

In July as Trump ramped up criticism of the Nigerian government's handling of the situation, NPR attempted to paint the attacks as a "land dispute" over access to cattle grazing areas. They repeated the Nigerian Foreign Ministry's claims that the events had "nothing to do with religion."  In almost every case of Christians being hunted by Muslim militants, the media is on the side of the governments that allow the attacks to happen.   

A number of western media platforms dismiss or marginalize the attacks on Christian villages in Nigeria, claiming that "most victims are Muslims."  What they don't mention is that most Muslim "victims" are largely rival militants fighting for a superior position.  Christians have not involved themselves in the power struggle, yet, they are specifically targeted for extermination.  

Reports from the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) state that over 7,000 Christians were killed in Nigeria in the first 220 days of 2025.  The bottom line is, Christians are disproportionately targeted by Islamic violence in Africa and African governments are content to let it happen.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:20

Waste Of The Day: Austin Funds Allegedly Sent To Fake Companies

Zero Hedge -

Waste Of The Day: Austin Funds Allegedly Sent To Fake Companies

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A then-employee at the City of Austin’s energy utility allegedly paid $980,000 in taxpayer funds to fictional companies with bank accounts belonging to his family members, according to a new report from the city auditor.

Key facts: Mark Ybarra was given a city credit card from 2018 to 2023 to hire repair companies for city buildings. He used it to pay 30 different vendors, but the city auditor could only verify that eight of them were real companies, according to the report. 

Ten of the companies reportedly had the same address, which the city auditor said is the home of one of Ybarra’s relatives. The businesses received $400,000 from the city. One of them had Ybarra’s email address listed as its contact information, according to the report.

The remaining $580,000 went to businesses that “appeared to be fake,” many of which were missing basic information like an address and phone number, according to the report. 

Ybarra resigned in October 2023 after Austin Energy officials asked questions about the invoices, according to the report. He was indicted for felony theft this September. 

Records obtained by Open the Books show Ybarra earned $534,797 in taxpayer-funded salary during the six years he was allegedly defrauding the city.

The city auditor claimed the alleged fraud went undetected because of Austin Energy’s “inefficient purchasing controls.” Most of his purchases were approved by former Facility Service Supervisor Sammy Ramirez, who never raised questions about the missing addresses and phone numbers on Ybarra’s invoices, according to the report.

Mark Ybarra’s wife, Ambrosia Ybarra, worked at the city's Watershed Protection Department. She was questioned by the city auditor about her husband’s invoices but allegedly left the interview before it was over, according to the report. She resigned this November.

Ambrosia Ybarra made $70,174 in 2024. Ramirez made $87,262 in 2022, his last year of employment, but made as much as $104,698 in 2021.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com

Summary: Austin’s scandal is yet another reminder that the government agencies spending huge amounts of money relative to the population of the areas they serve are often the ones most vulnerable to mistakes and fraud. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:00

Abrego Garcia Free To Make TikTok Videos While DHS Kept Silent Under Gag Order

Zero Hedge -

Abrego Garcia Free To Make TikTok Videos While DHS Kept Silent Under Gag Order

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the illegal immigrant, alleged MS-13 gang member, and suspected human smuggler, is living freely in Maryland, posting TikTok videos for the world to see. At the same time, federal authorities sit muzzled under a judicial gag order. 

The Salvadoran national, released from Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody in early December, created a new TikTok account and has posted at least two Spanish-language videos showing him lip-syncing to songs in what appears to be a suburban neighborhood. One video features him singing along to a track by Danny Berrios, an American singer known for Spanish Christian music, and has garnered nearly half a million views.

U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw, appointed to the Tennessee federal bench by President Barack Obama, issued a gag order in October, ordering federal prosecutors to warn Department of Justice and DHS employees against making any statements he deemed prejudicial about Abrego Garcia. 

The order restricted federal officials from publicly using terms such as "gangbanger," "serial wife beater," or "human trafficker" to describe him while the case proceeds. Crenshaw recently canceled the criminal trial and scheduled a hearing for January 28, 2026 to determine whether the prosecution for human smuggling was vindictive.

Tricia McLaughlin, DHS Assistant Secretary, expressed frustration on X on Saturday over the absurdity of the situation.

"So we, at [the Department of Homeland Security] are under gag order by an activist judge and Kilmar Abrego Garcia is making TikToks," McLaughlin said.

"American justice ceases to function when its arbiters silence law enforcement and give megaphones to those who oppose our legal system," she added.

On December 11, 2025, U.S. District Court Judge Paula Xinis, another Obama appointee, ordered the immediate release of Abrego Garcia from ICE custody. Xinis cited the absence of a final removal order against him and stated that his removal could not be regarded as reasonably foreseeable, imminent, or in accordance with due process. "Since Abrego Garcia's improper [deportation] to El Salvador, he has been detained, again without lawful authority," Xinis wrote. She subsequently extended her temporary restraining order, which keeps Abrego Garcia out of federal custody through the Christmas holiday period.

In 2019, police in Maryland identified Abrego Garcia in official documents as affiliated with MS-13, one of the most violent street gangs in the world. Abrego Garcia was arrested in March 2019 at a Home Depot parking lot in Hyattsville, Maryland, where officers deemed him a member of MS-13 based on his clothing and other factors, including tattoos linking him to the gang. 

Court records also show that Abrego Garcia's wife, Jennifer Vasquez, filed temporary protective orders against him in August 2020 and May 2021. In the 2020 order, she said he verbally abused, kicked, slapped, and shoved her, took her phone, and locked her out of the house with her three kids inside. In the 2021 petition, she alleged he punched and scratched her, leaving her bleeding, and ripped off her shirt.

In 2022, during a Tennessee traffic stop, police caught Abrego Garcia driving a vehicle with eight passengers. Officers observed that none of the passengers had any luggage and that each gave Abrego Garcia's address as their own, and the car he was driving belonged to a known smuggler.

Earlier this year, federal prosecutors indicted Abrego Garcia on smuggling-related counts. The grand jury indictment alleges that while illegally in the U.S., Abrego Garcia made more than 100 trips across the country smuggling illegal migrants, and that he participated in a years-long human smuggling operation from 2016 to 2025. 

The indictment alleges that from about 2016 to 2025, Abrego Garcia and others conspired to bring migrants illegally to the United States from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Ecuador and elsewhere, through Mexico and across the Texas-Mexico border.

Abrego Garcia and a co-conspirator “ordinarily picked up the undocumented aliens in Houston, Texas area” after they had crossed the border. The pair then allegedly would transport “the undocumented aliens from Texas to other parts of the United States to further the aliens’ unlawful presence in the United States,” the indictment said.

In the indictment, the government said Abrego Garcia and six other uncharged and unnamed co-conspirators communicated using cellphones and social media to unlawfully transport the undocumented immigrants.

They allege that Abrego Garcia would hold the cellphones of those he was transporting within the U.S. and would return them at the end of their trip, “they did this to ensure the undocumented aliens could not and would not contact anyone else during the trip,” the government said in the indictment.

Abrego Garcia has been locked in a legal battle with the Trump administration since his March 2025 deportation to El Salvador and subsequent return to the United States. Since his return in June, the government has pushed to deport him to various African countries, including Liberia, Uganda, Eswatini, and Ghana. His attorneys say he would accept deportation to Costa Rica, which has already guaranteed he could live there freely, but the government has made no apparent effort to pursue that option. Prosecutors continue to seek his permanent removal despite his release from ICE custody.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 10:40

Oh Crap: Over-The-Counter Medicines, Other Items Recalled Over Feces Contamination

Zero Hedge -

Oh Crap: Over-The-Counter Medicines, Other Items Recalled Over Feces Contamination

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late last week announced that a distributor is recalling its FDA-regulated products because of the presence of bird and rodent feces at a Minneapolis facility.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Minneapolis-based Gold Star Distribution Inc. said on Dec. 26 that it’s recalling all of its FDA-regulated products including over-the-counter cold and flu medications, dietary supplements, pet foods, cosmetics, medical devices, and foods that were distributed in locations primarily in Minnesota.

The reason for the action is “potential Salmonella contamination, presence of rodent and avian contamination, and insanitary conditions during the storage process,” the FDA said in a description of the recall.

According to a statement from Gold Star, people who consume or handle the products may become ill because of “adulteration from pests, including rodents, birds and insects.” The FDA found that the company facilities harbored “rodent excreta, rodent urine, and bird droppings in areas where medical devices, drugs, human food, pet food, and cosmetic products were held.”

These conditions create a significant risk that products held at the facility may have been contaminated with filth and harmful microorganisms,” it said.

No illnesses have been reported so far, according to the FDA notice.

Health authorities say Salmonella infections may cause fever, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and stomach pain. Salmonella can sometimes enter the bloodstream, causing more significant illnesses such as endocarditis, arthritis, and arterial infections.

In rare cases, the bacterial infections can be fatal. Young children, older people, and individuals with compromised immune systems are particularly at risk of developing severe illness.

Officials also say that individuals who may be sick with the bacterial infection should call their health care provider right away if they have more severe symptoms, including a fever higher than 102 degrees Fahrenheit in combination with diarrhea, bloody diarrhea, or diarrhea for more than three days without signs of improvement

Other serious symptoms include excessive vomiting or signs of dehydration such as dry mouth, dry throat, less frequent urination, and feeling dizzy or lightheaded when standing. Antibiotics are often used to treat people with severe Salmonella infections, and patients with diarrhea are advised to drink more fluids.

Recall Includes Medication

The recalled products include over-the-counter cold and flu medications, according to the FDA and the company, including some Tylenol, Advil, Benadryl, DayQuil, NyQuil, Excedrin, Alka-Seltzer, and Motrin products.

A number of other products are affected by the recall. A full list of the items can be found on the FDA’s website.

People who have any questions can contact Gold Star at 612-617-9800 or report any adverse reactions to the FDA via its website.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 10:20

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 3.3% in November; Up 2.6% YoY

Calculated Risk -

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 3.3% Increase in November
Pending home sales in October increased by 1.9% from the prior month and fell 0.4% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. ...

Month-Over-Month
3.3% increase in pending home sales
Gains in all four regions

Year Over Year
2.6% increase in pending home sales
Gains in all four regions
emphasis added
Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

Ilhan Omar's Husband's Venture Capital Firm Removes Names From Website Under Scrutiny

Zero Hedge -

Ilhan Omar's Husband's Venture Capital Firm Removes Names From Website Under Scrutiny

Authored by Bryan Jung via PJMedia.com,

A venture capital firm run by Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) husband quietly scrubbed important names from its website, as the Minnesota congresswoman faces mounting questions on her sudden wealth amid a multi-billion Somali welfare fraud scheme in her district.

Rose Lake Capital, the $60 million dollar firm managed by Omar’s husband, political consultant Tim Mynett, deleted key officers from its website, including former Obama Administration officialsreported the New York Post in an exclusive.

The news comes as Somali communities across multiple states are currently facing scrutiny over dozens of similarly fraudulent schemes that have seen billions of taxpayer dollars flowing overseas, with some even going to jihadist terrorist groups in Somalia.

Nine billion dollars from Minnesota’s social services programs were illegally pocketed via scams mostly perpetrated by local members of the Somali community in Omar's congressional district, according to an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The Minnesota congresswoman, a member of the "the Squad" who was born in Somalia, is an outspoken figure on the far-left wing of the House Democratic caucus

Omar suspiciously went from holding tens of thousands in debt to earning tens of millions in a single year, not long after taking office in 2019 on a congressperson's annual salary of $174,000, the Washington Free Beacon reported in September. 

Her critics have recently pointed to the fact that she was the prime mover in introducing the federal legislation that enabled what the DOJ has called the largest fraud committed in the United States during the pandemic.

Minnesota’s Democrat governor and failed vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz is continuing to face criticism for his part in the mismanagement and alleged complicity in the debacle, as calls for federal charges against him grow louder.

The Somalia-born Omar introduced in 2020 the MEALS Act, which severely weakened oversight of government-sponsored children’s meals programs during the pandemic.

This allowed criminals to fraudulently claim that they served millions of meals without verification, while pocketing millions of dollars in government subsidies, say critics.

The $9 billion stolen is nearly equivalent to the entire economy of Somalia, whose GDP was under $12 billion last year, according to the World Bank.

The total losses accounts for roughly half of the $18 billion in total federal funds provided to the Minnesota-run services since 2018, say federal prosecutors.

Meanwhile, while one of the largest government subsidies frauds in American history was underway, Mynett launched Rose Lake Capital, his venture capital management firm, in 2022.

Mynett's firm saw its reported value skyrocket from less than $1,000 in 2023, to between $5 million and $25 million by the end of the year, despite its address remaining a WeWork office in Washington, D.C., according to its LinkedIn page.

Rose Lake Capital apparently was able to amass significant assets under management through its “deep global networks built from on-the-ground work in more than 80 countries,” an amount which is normally unheard of in the industry.

Her husband's other business, eStCru, was a failed California winery venture that has also faced fraud allegations and, strangely enough, was also listed as operating out of a WeWork office.

Mynett's winery, which was worth between $1 million and $5 million in 2024, agreed to an out-of-court settlement with a former investor in November who accused Omar's husband of swindling him out of $900,000, as he “fraudulently misrepresented … that estCru, LLC was a legitimate company.”

The winery was only worth between $15,000 and $50,000 in Omar’s financial disclosure report in 2022, making its 9,900%  earnings windfall the following year suspect, say critics.

About 90 Minnesotan Somalis have been arrested so far, including at least three suspects with direct ties to Omar, though she has not been charged.

“The magnitude cannot be overstated,” First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson told reporters last week.

 “What we see in Minnesota is not a handful of bad actors committing crimes. It’s staggering, industrial-scale fraud," continued Thompson.

One of those charged was Salim Ahmed Said, the co-owner of Safari Restaurant in Minneapolis where Omar held her 2018 congressional victory party. He was convicted in federal court in August of stealing more than $12 million, the DOJ stated on its website.

Said received $12 million in federal payouts to serve 3.9 million meals to hungry children during the 2020 pandemic, but instead spent it on a $2 million mansion in Minneapolis and a $9,000 shopping spree at Nordstrom, said the feds.

President Donald Trump asked on his Truth Social account when the news of the allegations first broke: “Does Ilhan Omar know these people? Are they from her wonderfully managed Home Country of Somalia?”

“Somali gangs are terrorizing the people of that great state, and billions of dollars are missing. Send them back to where they came from,” the president added.

There is even a video on X of Omar praising Said at his restaurant, during the height of his scam, in front of reporters .

“Every day Safari provides 2,300 meals to children and their families,” Omar said in Somali while handing out food in front of the news cameras.

Another friend, Guhaad Hashi Said, who worked on the congresswoman's campaign in 2018 and 2020, also pleaded guilty in August for running a fake food site called Advance Youth Athletic Development, which was supposed to serve 5,000 meals a day to kids, but led to $3.2 million being diverted from the food program and into his pockets.

Omar's campaign received $7,400 in direct donations from the three convicted fraudsters, but the congresswoman who has publicly claimed to represent the interests of the people of Somalia now claims that she returned those donations since the scandal broke.

After federal prosecutors charged eight more suspects, mostly of Somali descent, between September and October for their participation in the subsidies fraud schemes, several names and bios of Rose Lake Capitals’s nine officers and advisors were removed from the firm's website. 

They included lobbyist and former Obama ambassador to Bahrain Adam Ereli; former Sen. Max Baucus, who served as Obama’s ambassador to China; DNC finance chair associate Alex Hoffman; former DNC treasurer William Derrough; and former Amalgamated Bank CEO Keith Mestrich.

Mestrich once boasted that Amalgamated was “the institutional bank of the Democratic Party.”  

None of these officers were charged in the fraud, according to the New York Post, which also noted that the Treasury and Justice Departments were already investigating alleged money laundering by Omar and Mynett.

Upon taking office in 2019, Omar declared a net worth of between negative $25,000 and negative $65,000, with no assets and only carrying student and car debt.

Her personal assets are now between $6 million to $30 million, according to her latest financial disclosure, despite dismissing claims that she is a millionaire as “ridiculous” and “categorically false.” 

“There’s a lot of strange things going on,” Paul Kamenar, counsel to the National Legal and Policy Center, told the New York Post. 

“She was basically broke when she came into office and now she’s worth perhaps up to $30 million.…She needs to come clean on these assets,” said Kamenar.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 09:00

Housing December 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.9% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk -

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.9% week-over-week.  
Note that Inventory usually bottoms seasonally in January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.1% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 13.5%), and down 6.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.7%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory and closed most of that gap, however inventory was still down 6% compared to 2019 at the end of the year.
Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 26th, inventory was at 736 thousand (7-day average), compared to 758 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

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