AI Can Be Used To Develop Biological And Chemical Weapons

Authored by David Gangemi via RealClearDefense,

The greatest threat to America may be something we cannot see.

Biological and chemical weapons can spread debilitating fear and wreak havoc on populations. Unfortunately, the threat of these kinds of attacks on American soil is only rising, empowered by the unique capabilities of artificial intelligence. To prevent catastrophe, we must use AI to counter the danger that this advanced technology can unleash.

We are only one misstep away from catastrophe. The most recent close call came last month when two Chinese nationals, who received funding from their communist government to work on a noxious fungus, were caught smuggling the pathogen into the United States. The FBI arrested them just in time, as this was no ordinary fungus—instead, it was what scientists call an “agroterrorism weapon” that would have decimated America’s grain farms, sickened the U.S. population, and disrupted our nation’s food supply.

Those who lived through the fraught days immediately after 9/11 likewise remember the anthrax scare, as toxic letters were sent through the postal service, killing five people and making everyday Americans terrified to open their mailboxes. 

Every few years, some new suspect threatens our military bases, political leaders, or someone else with ricin, a deadly poison derived from the castor plant.

And just a few short years ago, millions died and the entire world was thrown into a tailspin when COVID-19—which many experts now believe originated from questionable handling and a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology—crossed borders with abandon.

The rapid rise of AI is only making this problem more prevalent. In 2022—months before ChatGPT was released, bringing large language models to the masses—an AI designed to develop drugs invented 40,000 new chemical weapons in a mere six hours. In 2023, AI was used to provide a recipe for poisonous chloramine gas, which it called “Aromatic Water Mix.” AI experts and government officials have been warning for years that AI could spark the next pandemic and be an unparalleled tool in the hands of terrorists.

These facts are encouraging some to ask that AI developers give pause to the negative consequences of this powerful technology. We have enough problems with biological espionage, terrorism-by-mail, and lethal lab leaks. Why would we put potential biological and chemical weapons generators in the hands of anyone with a computer?

But responding to this threat is not so simple as pulling the plug. First, while AI has the potential to be used for evil, it also has immense power for good. The same tools that could be used to make biological weapons are also being applied to cure currently untreatable diseases. Additionally, America can’t stop others from developing AI for whatever uses they desire. COVID-19 and the recent agroterrorism fungus both came from China, and you can bet China will have no problem unleashing AI for even more destructive ends if it serves their interests, as will every other bad actor in the world.

So what else can we do?

First, the administration should continue to aggressively investigate and thwart potential acts of biological and chemical terrorism. The recent FBI arrest of the Chinese fungus smugglers proves that America’s law enforcement is aware of this threat and still capable of preventing attacks before they happen.

Likewise, President Donald Trump acted presciently in his first administration by launching the first-ever National Biodefense Strategy in 2018, which outlined how our nation can defend against natural outbreaks and intentional biological attacks. This strategy, coupled with the president’s swift military action against Syria for its use of biological weapons that same year, reveals that the current administration will still use the immense power of American deterrence to stop the use of these deadly weapons. 

Yet with AI poised to rapidly exacerbate biological and chemical weapon proliferation, traditional tools are not enough. We must use AI to respond to AI.

The private sector is already on the case. Companies like Renovaro, and OpenAI, two U.S.-based AI firms, are already applying machine learning to both prevent AI from producing recipes for weaponry and to identify and counter biological and chemical threats before they can spiral out of control. 

New coding produced by top AI experts can be applied to any large language model to prevent it from teaching users how to make weapons of mass destruction. For those pathogens that slip through the cracks, Renovaro’s AI has the potential to develop antidotes to biological and chemical samples within five days, lightyears faster than the long months it took to develop vaccines and effective treatments for COVID-19.

President Trump promised a golden dome to protect America from missile attacks—a worthwhile initiative. Yet the next war may be started not by a missile, but by a microbe. We need a biological golden dome, and AI can make it.

Dr. David Gangemi is a Professor Emeritus at Clemson University, Former Senior Science Advisor on health affairs to the Assistant Secretary of Defense, and a virologist at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 11:40

Enraged Over Purported COVID Vax Injury, Gunman Attacks CDC, Kills Cop

UPDATE (15:30 ET): The Georgia Bureau of Investigation has identified the shooter as 30-year-old Patrick Joseph White of Kennesaw, Georgia, an Atlanta suburb. Little is known about him yet, but neighbors have confirmed earlier reports that White was angry about the Covid-19 vaccine, having concluded it caused him to suffer from some kind of illness. One described him as having done yard work in the neighborhood, and expressed surprise at the news, telling Fox 5, "I was like, 'there's no way,' ...not the kind of person I would thought to do that."

* * *

A police officer is dead after a surgical-mask-wearing gunman riddled the Atlanta headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with bullets. His parents think it was an act of revenge, saying their son believed he had an illness caused by the controversial Covid-19 vaccine. The attack ended with the shooter's own death, but it's unclear at this point if his mortal wound was self-inflicted. 

Responding police officers use a bullet-riddled police vehicle for cover (Fox 5 Atlanta)

"The CDC campus did receive multiple rounds into their buildings," Atlanta Police Chief Darin Schierbaum told reporters. CDC Director Susan Monarez said four buildings were hit. As this is written, the name of the white, male shooter has not been released by authorities. He was armed with two handguns, a rifle and a shotgun, and a law enforcement official on the scene told CNN he was wearing what appeared to be a surgical mask like those the CDC pushed for all men, women and children to wear during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite well-informed doubts about their efficacy and concerns about ill effects. He was also wearing ear protection. 

Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens made cryptic allusions to the question of motive, telling reporters, "[The shooter] is a known person that may have some interest in certain things that I can’t reiterate right now.” However, according to CNN's police sources, the shooter's father had called the police prior to the shooting -- earlier on Friday -- to report that his son was suicidal. Family members also told investigators that the shooter was either physically ill or at least believed he was physically ill, and he was convinced that his malady resulted from receiving the Covid-19 vaccine.

MOMENT shooter opens fire at Emory University campus

Nonstop gunfire rips through the air

Police confirm shooter now DEAD https://t.co/y3GcUAPgx6 pic.twitter.com/RKonjvKipV

— RT (@RT_com) August 8, 2025

Police began receiving reports of a shooter immediately in front of the CDC campus at 4:50 pm. A CDC alert informed employees of an "active shooter" and instructed them to "RUN, HIDE FIGHT." Responding officers found the fallen officer and extracted him from the scene. As they did, gunfire could be heard inside a building across the street from the CDC, that houses a CVS pharmacy on the campus of Emory University. Police entered the building and found the dead shooter on the second floor.

It appears the shooter never entered the CDC buildings, choosing only to shooting at them from below. Many vehicles were shot as well. Beyond the fatal shooting of the officer, no other people were shot, though four went to a hospital to be treated for stress and anxiety symptoms. CDC employees posted photos of bullet-shattered windows, and bystanders also shared videos that recorded the sound of abundant gunfire.

WATCH: Video shows bullets on the ground and bullet holes in windows inside CDC Headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia after gunman opened fire outside the building. pic.twitter.com/aaqe4cVsXe

— AZ Intel (@AZ_Intel_) August 9, 2025

DeKalb County police officer David Rose, a Marine Corps veteran who A police officer is dead after a surgical-mask-wearing gunman riddled the Atlanta headquarters of the Center for Disease Control with bullets. His parents think it was an act of revenge, saying their son believed he had an illness caused by the controversial Covid-19 vaccine. That attack ended with the shooter's own death, but it's unclear at this point if his mortal wound was self-inflicted. 

As this is written, the name of the white, male shooter has not been released by authorities. He was armed with two handguns, a rifle and a shotgun, and a law enforcement official on the scene told CNN he was wearing what appeared to be a surgical mask like those the CDC pushed for all men, women and children to wear during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite well-informed doubts about their efficacy and concerns about ill effects.  

Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens made cryptic allusions to the question of motive, telling reporters, "[The shooter] is a known person that may have some interest in certain things that I can’t reiterate right now.” However, police sources told CNN that 

DeKalb County police officer David Rose died in the attack, leaving behind a pregnant wife and two children. 

">graduated from the police academy in March, died in Friday's attack, leaving behind a pregnant wife and two children. Police haven't yet determined why he happened to be on or near the scene when the attack erupted. 

The apparently vaccine-related attack came in the same week that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr announced he was killling a half-billion-dollars in funding for development of mRNA vaccines, such as those developed by Pfizer and Moderna for Covid-19. Kennedy said "mRNA technology poses more risks than benefits for these respiratory viruses" that the mRNA vaccines are meant to contain. Under Kennedy's leadership, the CDC retracted its recommendation for universal Covid-19 immunizations for healthy children through age 17, and healthy pregnant women.  

CDC windows were struck by gunfire in Emory University shooting. pic.twitter.com/XELD15hULl

— Blue Georgia (@BlueATLGeorgia) August 8, 2025

While it wouldn't have helped the CDC shooter, Kennedy in July announced he going to overhaul the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, in collaboration with Attorney General Pam Bondi and the Department of Health and Human Services. The VICP is focused on compensating children who are harmed by vaccines for which manufacturers enjoy immunity from lawsuits under the 1986 Vaccine Act. Kennedy explained: 

"Under the VICP, vaccine victims can petition for compensation to the so-called 'Vaccine Court,' which pays out awards from a trust fund endowed by a 75-cent surcharge on every vaccine. Congress intended that injured children be compensated “quickly and fairly” for injuries, “either presumed or proven to be causally connected to vaccines,” with doubts about causation resolved in favor of the victim...

The VICP no longer functions to achieve its Congressional intent. Instead, the VICP has devolved into a morass of inefficiency, favoritism, and outright corruption as government lawyers and the Special Masters who serve as Vaccine Court judges prioritize the solvency of the HHS Trust Fund, over their duty to compensate victims.

The structure itself hobbles claimants. The defendant is HHS, not the vaccine makers; and claimants are therefore facing the monumental power and bottomless pockets of the U.S. government...There is no discovery, and the rules of evidence do not apply. The government lawyers do not allow children’s attorneys access to the Vaccine Safety Datalink, a taxpayer-funded CDC surveillance system that houses the best data on vaccine injuries...

The VICP routinely dismisses meritorious cases outright or drags them out for years. Instead of 'quickly and fairly' awarding compensation, Special Masters dismiss over half of the cases. Most of those that proceed typically take 5+ years to resolve." 

In June, Kennedy fired all 17 members of a panel of supposed "experts" that advises the CDC on vaccination policy, saying it was "plagued by persistent conflicts of interest and [had] become little more than a rubber stamp for any vaccine," and that "the problem is their immersion in a system of industry-aligned incentives and paradigms that enforce a narrow pro-industry orthodoxy."

The American public's confidence in Covid vaccinations continues to erode. According to a July survey, 59% of U.S. adults say they will either “definitely not” or “probably not” receive a vaccine this fall, with just 21% saying they definitely will. Many also have a dim view of federal health agencies: Only 42% believe they make decisions based on a sound scientific basis, and only 37% confident they operate free of corrupting outside influences. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 11:05

 

Talking Rates in the Maine Woods With Economists Over Good Wine
Taking place right before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the gathering is a chance for money managers, traders, and economists to discuss crucial issues without restraint.
Businessweek, August 27, 2019

 

 

Let’s get this out of the way upfront: There is no such entity as the “Shadow Kansas City Federal Reserve Board.”

This isn’t a “The first rule of Fight Club” situation. No one denies that a gathering of money managers, bond traders, and economists has been taking place at Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, for several decades. It’s just that most of the conversations are off the record or governed by the Chatham House Rule, which doesn’t allow identification of speakers without their permission. Many attendees have an affiliation with the Federal Reserve, as current or former employees, but aren’t authorized to speak on the Fed’s behalf.

The long weekend in Maine takes place shortly before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, an event dating to 1982, held in Wyoming and hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Hence, the gathering became known in some circles as the “Shadow Kansas City Federal Reserve Board” because of the Fed affiliation of many attendees, more than a few of whom head off to Jackson Hole right after the gathering.

The group makes no claim to any official imprimatur. Instead, “Camp Kotok,” as it has become known—after David Kotok, chairman and cofounder of Cumberland Advisors, who began holding the meetings more than 20 years ago—has fishing and drinking and hiking and shooting and smoking of cigars in the pristine wilds of Maine, all of which may be great fun, but it’s hardly the reason to gather each year.

The main draw is the opportunity to discuss and debate the big issues of monetary policy, economics, and finance, with a like-minded group of serious policy wonks and high-profile money managers, away from the usual routines of the office. At dinner the dining room represents about $2 trillion in capital, not counting attendees from various governments and central banks from around the world.

In the past, discussion topics ranged far and wide; but this year, the focus was all Fed all the time: whether it should cut rates and by how much; if the inverted yield curve is signaling a recession; whether negative bond rates from Japan and Europe would make their way here. Perhaps the most passionate discussions were on the independence of the Federal Reserve in the face of unceasing pressure from President Trump.

Almost all attendees related similar anecdotes about presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve. Harry Truman famously called the entire Federal Open Market Committee to lunch at the White House, warning, “If you don’t cut rates, you are doing Stalin’s bidding.” Lyndon Johnson invited Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin to his ranch in Texas. LBJ threw Martin against the wall, saying, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff, Jim Baker, invited Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to the president’s library, adjacent to the Oval Office in the White House. With Reagan sitting next to him, Baker told Volcker, “The president is ordering you not to raise interest rates before the election.”

In each of these examples, pressure from the U.S. president was private, personal—and mostly effective. The very concept of a public dispute between a president and his own appointed Fed chair was unthinkable. Not only because it might roil the markets, but simply because adults don’t behave that way.

Alas, those were simpler times, decades before presidential tweeting was a thing. Before public bullying and harassment campaigns, there was direct and personal persuasion. The record suggests it was an effective way for presidents to influence monetary policy. Attendees at Camp Kotok repeatedly noted the current approach was not only unseemly but also had not ever been effective. The president calling out his hand-selected FOMC chair to an audience of 60 million-plus Twitter followers doesn’t seem to be having the desired result.

At the Jackson Hole gathering, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s  speech was a refresher on the history of monetary policy in the post-world war era. The section on current circumstances gave little comfort to a president apparently concerned about a possible recession and its potential effects on his reelection chances. Powell appears to have figured out three important things:

1. In the current era of low rates, low inflation, and modest economic expansion, the Fed’s rate policy is having little to no impact on stimulating the broader economy. Consumers have been buying big-ticket items such as houses and cars, regardless of modest increase in rates we’ve seen the past two years; we are still at historically low and accommodative levels. It’s noteworthy that corporations have been borrowing large sums of capital not to invest and hire, but to buy back their own shares. Lowering rates won’t change that behavior; if anything, it will only encourage more of it.

2. The Fed cannot offset an ill-advised trade war. The economy is having the expected textbook reaction to tariffs, treating them as an unnecessary tax on consumer spending, both here and abroad. If there was any expectation on the part of the occupants of the White House that this would cause the Fed to blink and cut rates, they appear to have been mistaken. “While monetary policy is a powerful tool that works to support consumer spending, business investment, and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rule book for international trade,” Powell said.

3. Perhaps No. 2 above occurred because of the following: Powell seems to have deduced that Trump can’t fire him—at least, not without causing a constitutional crisis. This last conclusion allows the chairman to focus on protecting his institution from undue pressure from the president.

Simply stated, the Fed believes cutting rates is not the panacea the president believes it to be. Therefore the Fed would rather wait to cut rates when it would be much more effective—in a mild recession—than risk an increase in inflation from an even more accommodative stance than we’re in at present.

~~~

To be invited to Camp Kotok, you must check three boxes: First, a group member must nominate you as someone capable of adding to the conversation. Original ideas, thoughtful disagreement, and intelligent variant perspectives are all welcome.

Second, you must get the thumbs-up from Kotok.

Third, the rules mandate that each attendee brings a case of wine. The group contains some serious oenophiles, and you’d best bring your A-game. Lots of thought goes into the wine selection—along with 20-year-old Scotch whisky, rare tequila, and the occasional brandy. This year I brought two cases of a delightful Spanish albariño from Ramón Bilbao; it was a cheap (so two cases) and unexpected delicious treat. It made a surprisingly good impression in the face of overrepresented—and overpriced—Napa Valley cabernets.

Most evenings there is a featured discussion before dinner. Senators, governors, and representatives have made appearances. Every Saturday night there’s robust debate. The topics include currency issues, the latest crises, and economic philosophy. The theme of this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was Challenges for Monetary Policy. So it was no coincidence that the debate, in Maine this year, ably moderated by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC, was on Modern Monetary Theory, also called MMT. The surprising consensus was that whether it comes from the political Left or Right, MMT is inevitable. Expect future infrastructure projects, Medicare for all, and/or tax cuts to be funded by bonds authorized by Congress, issued by the Treasury, and purchased by the Federal Reserve. The group takeaway was as simple as it was snarky: “Free money! Whatever could possibly go wrong with that?!”

One cannot gather 50 economists and their ilk and not expect forecasting to occur. All participants answer 25 questions on where they think various prices and economic indicators will be one year hence. The stock market, unemployment, bond yields, gold, gross domestic product, yen, euro, inflation, oil, and other questions are not only discussed and forecast but gambled upon at $5 per prediction. I usually do pretty well, and this year I won $52. (Ties change the payouts.) Sizable side bets occur, and some people have been known to make rather large and ill-advised wagers under the influence of alcohol. I have done that, too, but thankfully, the rules preclude me from going into details.

There is a stable core of about 35 to 40 people, with a few newbies showing up each year to shake things up. Not everyone gets invited back. My slot opened up a dozen years ago when a Chicago currency trader decided to stand up in his canoe, flipping it over, sending everyone and everything on board into the lake.

My own tenure almost came to a premature end when I left a wet towel on a radiator to dry; it instead smoldered. Camp Kotok lore is that I almost burned down the cabin, and bank analyst Josh Rosner led a mock prosecution that evening to have me tossed out for my recklessness and negligence. My defense: This was no accident; I was trying to murder Rosner and his snoring bunkmate and fellow bank analyst Christopher Whalen, so the rest of us could get a night’s sleep. That this argument carried the day gives you some sense of the gallows humor of the dismal set who gather—and why I still get an annual invitation.

For a few years, electronic media were present in large numbers (including Bloomberg Radio and TV). One Friday evening, on Aug. 5, 2011, a television truck was accidentally still present—it couldn’t exit the narrow parking area because a car with a missing set of keys blocked the way—when Standard & Poor’s unexpectedly downgraded the credit quality of the U.S. It was a television producer’s dream, a huge news event scoop, with a live TV feed and a few dozen tipsy economists happy to chat about it, alcohol-induced buzz be damned. These were the first people to share their views with the world about what the downgrade meant. The consensus that it mattered much less than people feared was borne out by the subsequent course of history.

This year the concerns were focused on the many conundrums of monetary policy. The inverted yield curve—when short-term bonds pay a higher yield than the rates paid on longer-term bonds—is worrying, and the main question being debated was whether it was foreshadowing a recession or a sign that interest rates are still too low.

Yet the U.S. has the highest rates in the developed world, which is not ideal, in several economists’ view. The risk is a “giant flow of currency to the U.S.” to capture that yield, and an “overvalued dollar that is way too strong.”

Negative interest rates were even more worrying to the group. The entire economic system, it was pointed out, is based on positive interest rates. And if rates flip negative in the U.S., as they already have in Germany and Japan, no one knows what will happen.

 

 

Photos and videos here

~~~

 

 

Source:
Talking Rates in the Maine Woods With Economists Over Good Wine
Barry Ritholtz
Businessweek, August 27, 2019

 

The post Camp Kotok: Rates, Fed & Dollar (Drink!) appeared first on The Big Picture.

120 Million Square Feet: Store Closings In The US Are On Pace To Set A New Record High In 2025

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If everything is going to be just fine, why are thousands of stores closing all over the country?  So far this year, the total amount of retail space that has been permanently closed has surpassed 120 million square feet.  We have never seen anything like this before.  Store closings spiked during the early days of the pandemic, but in 2025 stores are being permanently shuttered at an even faster pace.

 In fact, during the first six months of this year 5,822 store closures were recorded…

Store closures across the U.S. continue to rise, and remain on track to far significantly surpass both new openings and the figures seen in 2024.

According to a new report from research and advisory firm Coresight Research, cited by CoStar News, 5,822 store closures were recorded as of June 27, compared to 3,496 closures announced during the same period of 2024.

If stores continue to close at this rate, we will break the old record that was established during the pandemic by a wide margin.

We are also being told that the total amount of retail space that has been permanently shuttered in 2025 has reached a staggering 120 million square feet…

In June, store closings by Plano, Texas-based home goods seller At Home and Philadelphia-based pharmacy chain Rite Aid, which have both filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, “pushed the total amount of retail space to close in the U.S. this year to over 120 million square feet,” Coresight said. The real estate churn is happening “as cyclical impacts confront structural shifts,” according to one executive at the research firm.

Wow.

You may have noticed that there are an increasing number of abandoned buildings in your particular area.

Sadly, this is just the beginning.

Consumers are under more financial stress than we have ever seen, and that has resulted in a substantial decline in store traffic…

Many of the retail store closures are a result of declining store traffic as more consumers respond to inflation by reducing spending. There also are more consumers turning to online shopping especially for apparel, accessories and household items. The winner is not merely Amazon but increased competition from Temu and Shein marketplaces and social commerce outlets like TikTok.

Needless to say, more stores are being closed down with each passing day.

After filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, Claire’s announced that it will be closing 18 more stores…

Claire’s, a mall-based teen accessories retailer, has identified several locations across the country it plans to close after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Claire’s U.S., which operates Claire’s and Icing stores, made the filing in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on Wednesday. It’s the second time since 2018 the company has filed for bankruptcy.

While the company says the majority of its retail stores will remain open while it “continues to explore all strategic alternatives,” Claire’s said it identified 18 stores ahead of the Aug. 6 bankruptcy filing it would close, filings show.

And home goods retailer At Home just announced that it will be closing 6 more stores…

The home goods retailer At Home is closing an additional six stores across the country, bringing its total closure tally to more than two dozen as it grapples with high debt and dwindling sales.

The furniture and home decor retailer based in Coppell, Texas, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 16, pointing to “broader economic and retail-specific market pressures,” in court documents. The bankruptcy filing and store closures follow several other “big box” retailers that have also significantly downsized their brick-and-mortar footprints this year, including Big Lots, Joann Fabrics, Kohl’s, JCPenney, Macy’s, and Party City.

The retailer intially announced 26 store closures in June, before paring that down to 24 when it decided to keep open two stores in New Jersey and Wisconsin. The company added another six stores to the list, according to a statement by retail firm Hilco Consumer-Retail on Aug. 1, bringing the current number of stores it will shutter in the coming months to 30.

We see more stories like this every single day.

So what is going to happen if our economic momentum continues to take us very rapidly in the wrong direction?

Earlier today, we learned that the percentage of student loans entering serious delinquency is absolutely exploding…

The total amount of outstanding student loan debt was $1.64 trillion in the second quarter of 2025 after rising by $7 billion in the quarter.

Additionally, the share of student loan debt entering serious delinquency, considered 90 days or more late, jumped to 12.9% at the end of June, up from 8% in March and above pre-pandemic trends that were around 9-10% from 2012 into early 2020, when the moratorium initially took effect.

The American people are drowning in debt, and I expect delinquency rates of all types to continue to rise in the months ahead.

We are going to see more layoffs too, and the fact that continuing claims for unemployment benefits just hit their highest level since 2021 is not a good sign at all…

Recurring applications for unemployment benefits surged to the highest since November 2021, adding to recent signs that the labor market is weakening.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

On top of everything else, U.S. manufacturing activity is now in contraction territory…

From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline.

The effective average tariff rate on all imported goods now stands at around roughly 18% versus 2.3% last year, the highest levels since the 1930s.

We are in so much trouble.

After evaluating all of the latest economic numbers that have come in, Mark Zandi has come to the conclusion that the “economy is on the precipice of recession”…

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, on Monday wrote a post on X that the “economy is on the precipice of recession” – citing the weaker-than-expected jobs report released Friday and the inflation data from the previous day that showed consumer prices rose as indicating the economy’s precarious position.

“Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue,” he wrote.

It is hard to argue with him.

Of course what is eventually coming is going to be so much worse than just a “recession”.

As conditions deteriorate, will store closings slow down or will they speed up?

The answer to that question is obvious.

If there are stores in your local area that you really enjoy, I would visit them now while you still can, because they might not be there next year.

*  * *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 10:30

Trump–Putin Alaska Summit: Peace Talks And Power Plays On Former Russian Soil

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Donald Trump stays true to his line and asserts dominance over the geopolitical chessboard — symbolically as well. Following the announcement of a trade deal with the EU at his golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, peace talks in the Ukraine conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin are now scheduled in Alaska.

The venue of a negotiation often predefines the balance of power between opponents. In that sense, it must be read as a clear show of force that both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — notably without military fanfare — traveled to Trump’s private resort in Turnberry to be politically “placed” by the American president. Judging by the outcome of those talks, one conclusion is unavoidable: the European Union no longer plays in the league of the great powers. Washington’s interest in intra-European affairs has noticeably cooled, focusing essentially on two things: an orderly withdrawal from military entanglements, and the defense of US corporate interests in the EU single market.

We are witnessing a shift of power from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Europe Losing Grip

It’s hardly a secret: China and the United States will be setting the standards of international politics in the future. Russia, the world’s most resource-rich country, may be labeled by Europeans as a pariah state and a malicious hub of all evil — but that does not change the fact that the age of postcolonial European dominance is ending, and Moscow will have no trouble playing its resource-market cards outside the shrinking European sphere of influence.

In this spirit, Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel on August 15 to “away territory” in Alaska — once part of Russia — to preliminarily negotiate peace terms in Ukraine with President Trump. Trump sees progress in the stalemated conflict and stresses that the talks will likely lead to a land-swap arrangement “to the benefit of both sides.” While the Russian government has not issued an official statement, much suggests Moscow will not return the occupied territories in Donbas, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, nor Crimea. Russia currently holds the military initiative and is increasing pressure on Ukraine and its allies to force a resolution.

To avoid overshadowing the personal meeting, the White House postponed a tariff ultimatum — originally set for August 9 — that would have imposed 100% duties on Russian goods if the war continued, pushing it back to August 27.

Alaska as a Signal

We will have to see what unfolds in the meantime and whether potential disruptions derail this cautious rapprochement once more. One recalls the much-discussed visit of former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who, two months after the outbreak of war, acted as a kind of shadow diplomat to reject a Russian-proposed peace deal.

What is now on the table again — a land swap and Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO — was flatly rejected back then. Hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded later, there appears to be a renewed turn toward diplomacy in light of the bleak military situation. This time, however, it is the Americans applying pressure on the warring sides. From Europe, little is heard apart from intense rearmament efforts and a declared will to “re-militarize” the population, as the German government has repeatedly emphasized.

Diplomatic Thread to Be Picked Up

The diplomatic thread is now to be picked up again in Alaska. Until 1867, Alaska was Russian territory before the US purchased it from Tsar Alexander II for $7.2 million — after Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War left its treasury depleted. The geography here speaks volumes: Alaska lies between Russia and the US, separated only by the Bering Strait, symbolizing the direct neighborhood of two great powers that may now be entering a new phase of rapprochement in a rapidly changing world order.

For the Ukraine talks, the location signals that even deeply rooted geopolitical divides can be bridged through pragmatic agreements. At the same time, Alaska has strategic importance for the Arctic, whose trade routes and resources will likely be integrated into the future architecture of global power.

By hosting the Russian president at such a neuralgic spot, Trump fuses historical reconciliation with present-day power politics, creating a symbolic setting that suggests readiness for compromise without conceding sovereignty.

Trump’s Move

What might look like a PR coup in the headlines is in reality a move at the highest level of geopolitics. By inviting Putin onto US soil, Trump openly breaks with the prevailing doctrine of keeping Russia isolated. The ICC arrest warrant, the sanctions regime, years of carefully cultivated enemy imagery — all of it, should the meeting take place, would evaporate in significance with a single photograph.

The message: The rules the foreign-policy establishment holds as untouchable are negotiable — not carved in stone — at least if the President of the United States decides so.

Behind closed doors, the focus will likely be on redrawing spheres of influence: a possible Ukraine endgame in exchange for Russian concessions — energy, Arctic passage, perhaps even a gradual distancing from Beijing. For Trump, the meeting offers a chance to pull Russia, perhaps through trade, into America’s geostrategic orbit. This would align with the raw-materials deal signed with Ukraine in April, granting the US exclusive access to the country’s rare earths as well as certain oil and gas reserves.

But the true test linked to this meeting lies within the inner workings of America’s power machine: Can Trump carry out such an unconventional operation without sabotage from his own security apparatus? Should he manage to launch a robust peace process, he will have proven that he has taken full control of US foreign policy strategy.

That would be a decisive blow against the neocons pushing for escalation in Ukraine — and a further step toward peace.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist who has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 09:55

International Energy Agency Policies Hurt Africans

Authored by Brenda Shaffer via RealClearWire,

One of the most important developments this century has been a major increase in energy access across the globe: Billions of people have gained access to modern energy, a precondition for rising from poverty.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world not benefiting from this transformation. In Africa, energy poverty is growing. For the first time since World War II, access to electricity is also backsliding in Africa.

Over the past year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has sought to address Africa’s rising energy poverty, through organizing conferences and publishing reports. The IEA and global leaders gathered in conferences in Africa. The Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation was a major funder of the endeavor. Yet, the IEA did not offer any practical solution to address the rising energy poverty in Africa because it is unable to utter the essential words: fossil fuels.

In fact, through its promotion of cutting loans and investments in fossil fuels in Africa, the IEA itself contributed to the decline in energy access in Africa. The IEA’s promotion of “Net-Zero” served as the basis of decisions in recent years by the G7, World Bank, and United Nations to cut funding and investments in fossil fuels and production of electricity from fossil fuels in Africa.

The idea behind denying investments and funding for fossil fuels was that it would force Africans to adopt renewable energy. However, reducing access to fossil fuels did not lower pollution and emissions. In fact, the lack of access to stable and affordable electricity produced from fossil fuels, has led to increased pollution, emissions, and premature deaths in Africa, as Africans turn to burning dung, wood, lump coal, and other biomass for cooking and other basic energy functions.

The IEA acknowledged in its recently published report “Universal Access to Clean Cooking in Africa” that burning traditional biomass releases more carbon emissions than using fossil fuels.

Despite this acknowledgment that the path to lower emissions and pollution—improving public health—is through fossil fuels, the IEA isn’t willing to say the plain truth: Africa needs fossil fuels. For the IEA, like so many multilateral institutions, energy policy has become a cult in which fossil fuels are sacrilegious.

The new IEA report on Africa numbers 151 pages and probably cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to compile, yet it doesn’t give any reasonable path for Africa to increase energy access. The report points to the transformation of China, Indonesia, and India in energy access over recent decades as models for Africa. However, the IEA neglects to point out that those three countries benefitted from access to coal and to government and multilateral funding to develop electricity produced from fossil fuels. Yet, Africa is denied funding and investments to develop its fossil fuel resources.

In the report, the IEA sets South Africa apart as an example of a place where modern energy access is growing and the number of homes reliant on burning biomass is decreasing, in contrast to countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The IEA, however, neglects to point out that South Africa has succeeded in expanding modern energy access by developing and burning its domestic coal reserves. Coal provides 69 percent of South Africa’s energy consumption and is the source of 82 percent of its electricity production.

In the report, the IEA acknowledges that liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity are necessary to replace the use of traditional biomass. Yet, it still advocates blocking Africa from developing its own fossil fuel resources. According to the IEA report, imported LPG and natural gas can replace traditional biomass, but not local energy resources.

What is the IEA’s answer as to how Africa will pay for that imported fuel and finance new cooking stoves? The IEA suggests that Africa sell carbon credits to fund the transition from burning wood and dung to using LPG and electricity. However, it is highly unlikely that enough revenue from carbon credits could be generated to finance a move from dung and wood—which is collected for free—to pay for stoves, LPG, and electricity. Moreover, this would increase Africa’s dependence on handouts from abroad, instead of strengthening local economies.

The answer to Africa’s energy poverty is development of the continent’s oil, gas, and coal resources. Profits and taxes from the development could be used to expand LPG and electricity access in Africa. Paradoxically, as the IEA acknowledges, developing fossil fuels and producing electricity from them would lower emissions, pollution, and premature deaths in Africa.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright recently stated that the Trump administration is evaluating whether the United States should withdraw its membership from the IEA or attempt to reform the organization. The administration claims that the IEA has strayed from its mission of promoting energy security. Instead, the IEA has become another one of the dozens of major climate policy advocacy organizations. In his evaluation of the IEA, Wright should add the IEA’s role in increasing energy poverty in Africa and its use of public funding on projects that do not benefit Africans.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 09:20

The key reports this week are July CPI and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, the August NY Fed survey, and the July Industrial Production report will be released.

----- Monday, August 11th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, August 12th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.

----- Wednesday, August 13th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 14th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 228 thousand from 226 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, August 15th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline)

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 5.5.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.6%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August)

The Era Of Online Age Checks Is Here - How Does It Work?

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Laws demanding internet users provide proof of age are sprouting up around the world.

In the United States, at least 24 states have already passed laws requiring pornography sites to verify users’ ages, according to the Age Verification Providers Association.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

A handful of countries, including Germany, France, Australia, and Ireland, have implemented age verification to access specified content, from social media access to pornography.

At the end of July, the UK rolled out the most comprehensive national system so far.

How does age verification work in practice? What are the loopholes? And how might it reshape the internet? Here’s what the experts say.

How Age Checks Work in Practice

Age‑verification systems range from uploading a photo of an identification such as a driver’s license to advanced biometric scans.

The Age Verification Providers Association lists several approved methods for age checks, including mobile phone account verification, credit database matching, transactional records, and digital ID apps.

Some platforms ask users to upload a government‑issued ID, while others rely on mobile phone account data, banking or credit records, or digital ID apps to confirm age.

Increasingly, sites are turning to biometric solutions, such as facial analysis that estimates age from a selfie or a brief movement check.

Reddit, for example, uses the third‑party service Persona to verify either an ID or a live selfie, while Discord relies on k‑ID, which confirms age by analyzing facial movements. X combines internal account signals with optional ID checks.

Porn sites like Pornhub offer a mix of options, such as requiring a photo ID or running a credit card check before users can view sexually explicit material.

The Next 24 Months

Mary Ann Miller, vice president and fraud adviser at Prove, a digital identity verification platform, said that age verification will become more standard and required over the next 24 months.

Miller said that simpler methods include uploading a government-issued ID that is sometimes checked for authenticity or a selfie taken to ensure identity accuracy and that the person is alive.

“Other methods use solutions that leverage technology that uses the phone as a proxy for our identity since we have them with us ‘all the time’ and determine the assurance and trust of the person presenting information or attesting their age or attesting for a child’s age as part of parental consent,” she told The Epoch Times by email.

The home page of Pornhub displays a suspension notice in France due to age-verification requirements, in Valence, France, on June 4, 2025. Countries worldwide, including dozens of U.S. states, have implemented age checks for access to certain websites and social media platforms. Nicolas Guyonnet/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

“Other methods include age estimation from facial recognition or other data sources.”

In terms of which methods are most reliable, Miller pointed to those that “can use passive techniques to determine identity assurance first, then age verification as part of an identity flow.”

Passive identity assurance techniques verify a user’s identity without requiring the user to actively perform actions—such as entering a password or scanning a fingerprint—by using data already available to infer age, including credit cards, IP addresses, or other information.

Businesses in the near future will have to overhaul their age‑verification systems to meet stricter standards, rather than relying on low‑accuracy or patchwork identity checks.

“What has taken many businesses by surprise is that when they try to apply age verification with low-accuracy identity checks or the absence of identity checks, they have to ‘go back to the drawing board’ on both aspects,” she said.

The Push for Biometric Verification

Biometric age estimation can be conducted using facial analysis.

Other methods include voice blueprints, gestures, and keystrokes (how you type). These methods are currently less well-developed than facial analysis but are progressing quickly.

Derek Jackson, chief operations officer and cofounder of Cyber Dive, a tech company founded with the mission of keeping children safe online, told The Epoch Times by email that facial biometrics are “newer but catching on quickly.”

“They estimate your age by analyzing your facial features, cheekbones, eye spacing, skin tone, in real time,“ Jackson said. ”Voice biometrics and keystroke patterns are even newer. They try to match your unique patterns, your voice pitch, how fast or slow you type to known age profiles.”

He said that facial recognition is growing quickly because “it’s simple, fast, and surprisingly effective.”

A GovTech staff member demonstrates facial verification to access government services at a community center in Singapore on Oct. 1, 2020. As age-verification rules expand, some sites are using biometric tools like selfie-based age analysis in addition to government-issued IDs, bank or credit records, or digital ID apps. Martin Abbugao/AFP via Getty Images Privacy Risks and Skepticism

Users remain wary about sharing personal data online, especially government IDs or biometrics.

Denis Vyazovoy, chief product officer of AdGuard VPN, said that some platforms attempt to be more privacy-aware by, for example, not permanently storing selfies or ID documents or keeping data for just seven days.

“But even with such reassurances, trust is low,” he told The Epoch Times by email.

“Even though platforms claim that facial data or ID scans are not stored long-term, people remain wary, and rightfully so. The truth is, any method that requires biometric data, government ID, or sensitive financial information introduces serious privacy risks.”

The UK’s New Law

The UK’s Online Safety Act does not mandate a single method of age verification. The UK’s tech regulator Ofcom, which is in charge of policing the law, just requires companies to implement highly effective age assurances.

The law focuses on keeping under‑18s out of adult spaces but does not tell companies how to achieve this goal, leaving firms to choose their own verification systems as long as they are “highly effective.”

But failure to implement a system can result in financial penalties of up to 10 percent of a service’s qualifying worldwide revenue, or 18 million pounds ($23.9 million), whichever is greater. The Online Safety Act is a UK-specific law, but it affects U.S. and global companies with no legal presence in the country.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 08:10

Germany Halts Arms Exports To Israel As World Reacts To Gaza Conquest Plan

Netanyahu's security cabinet has approved a plan to takeover the whole of the Gaza Strip, including intense operations in Gaza city, resulting in outrage among some European capitals, who see this as doubling down on the carnage which has left over 60,000 Palestinians dead, based on Gaza health sources.

Germany has announced itself as the latest European nation to suspend its arms exports to Israel, noting that these could be used in human rights violations and potential war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Berlin backs the anti-Hamas fight, however.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear as Israel's military is poised to take over Gaza city his government will not approve or transfer any exports of military equipment to Israel that could be used in Gaza until further notice.

Via Reuters

Merz says it was "increasingly difficult to understand" how the Israeli military plan could achieve its war aims in a legitimate way, adding:

"Under these circumstances, the German government will not authorise any exports of military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip until further notice."

The German arms industry has historically been among the globe's largest arms suppliers to Israel. Of course, the US has long been far and away the biggist supplier of arms, and under Trump this doesn't look to cease - with Germany coming in second, according to global monitors, over the last half-decade.

"Israel has the right to defend itself against the terror of Hamas," Merz continued in his statement. "The release of the hostages and determined negotiations on a ceasefire are our top priority. The disarmament of Hamas is essential. Hamas must not play a role in the future of Gaza."

But apparently Merz vehemently disagress with the practical how in terms of the methods whereby this is accomplished. Global critics have said Israel is conducting ethnic cleansing and ultimately plans to annex the strip.

PM Netanyahu has sought to deflect this criticism by saying Israel will conquer the whole enclave, but that it doesn't ultimatley want to govern it. This vaguely suggests it could be handed over to an entity like the Palestinian Authority (PA) one day, but likely this would be done (or not done at all) by a future Israeli government.

Shekel Falls After Cabinet Approves Plan to Seize Gaza City--Bloomberg

Meanwhile other major powers like China are raising the alarm over Israel's takeover plan, with China on Friday expressing "serious concerns" over the move on Gaza City, urging it to "immediately cease its dangerous actions."

Now its getting real.

Germany going beyond statements and blocking weapons exports to Israel.

Source: Bundesregierung
https://t.co/rGTCNkDLzd pic.twitter.com/J8frsDOA9R

— Latika M Bourke (@latikambourke) August 8, 2025

"Gaza belongs to the Palestinian people and is an inseparable part of Palestinian territory," a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson told the AFP. "The correct way to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and to secure the release of hostages is an immediate ceasefire."

“A complete resolution to the Gaza conflict hinges on a ceasefire; only then can a path to de-escalation be paved and regional security ensured," the Chinese government statement said. Beijing is "willing to work together with the international community to help end the fighting in Gaza as soon as possible," it added.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 07:35

Trump-Brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Deal Secures US Trade Route

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump will host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on Aug. 8 at the White House to sign a joint declaration ending four decades of hostility between the two nations.

The accord also launches the “Trump Route,” a new transport corridor aimed at unlocking the region’s commercial potential, the White House said.

During the meeting, the two countries will sign a joint declaration formalizing the agreement and establishing the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” or TRIPP, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told reporters during a call previewing the meeting.

“By locking in this path to peace, we are unlocking the great potential of the South Caucasus region in trade, transit, and energy flows,” Kelly said.

Trump will also sign bilateral agreements with both countries that “span energy, technology, economic cooperation, border security, infrastructure, and trade,” she added.

The new route will be a multimodal transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, enhancing regional trade routes.

The new route will allow goods to be moved from not just the Caucasus but also Central Asia without transiting through Russia, Iran, or China, according to the White House.

“What President Trump has done is he’s taken the politics out of the picture and made common sense prevail,” a senior White House official said during the call.

“What this will do for American businesses, and frankly, for energy resources across Europe, will be enormously powerful.

“The losers here are China, Russia, and Iran. The winners here are the West.”

Azerbaijan has long sought a transport corridor through Armenia to connect its main territory with Nakhchivan bordering Turkey. Under the agreement to be signed on Friday, Armenia will grant the United States exclusive long-term development rights to build a route through the southern part of Armenia.

The U.S. government plans to delegate the project to a consortium to handle both infrastructure and management.

The official said that Trump is going to sign on Aug. 8 a directive to “set up a TRIPP negotiating team” with talks expected to start “in the middle of next week.”

The official noted that since the announcement yesterday morning, they had received calls from nine potential operators, including three American companies.

“We’re going to get everybody around the table. We’re going to find the most first-class operating system,” the official said.

In a Truth Social post on Aug. 7, Trump announced that he'd be hosting Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for a “Historic Peace Summit” at the White House on Friday.

“These two Nations have been at War for many years, resulting in the deaths of thousands of people. Many Leaders have tried to end the War, with no success, until now,” Trump said, adding that his administration has been “engaged with both sides for quite some time.”

The two nations have engaged in cross-border conflicts since the late 1980s.

Early this year, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff traveled to Azerbaijan and met with Aliyev. From February through mid-April, U.S. officials expressed significant concern about the potential for renewed hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Following Witkoff’s trip, a U.S. team conducted a series of five additional visits to the region, traveling between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

During the meeting, the countries will also sign a joint letter officially requesting the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, to dissolve the “no longer relevant Minsk Group,” according to the White House.

The group, co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States, was created in 1992 to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno–Karabakh conflict.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 07:00

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form Camp Kotok weekend reads:

• Trump, the BLS, and Our Age of Choose-Your-Own-Reality Governance: The president’s war on economic data will make us dumber, poorer, and less prepared for crisis. (Derek Thompson)

• How Novo Nordisk Rival Hims Became King of Knockoff Weight-Loss Drugs: Big Pharma hates the telehealth startup. Meme-stock day traders love it. Why CEO Andrew Dudum won’t stop selling GLP-1s, no matter how risky it may be for the company. (Businessweek)

• Forsaking Industrialism: The Most Expensive Thing You Didn’t Buy: The most intolerant wins: global supply chains force production to comply with the most intolerant buyers; Europe therefore dictates the shape of regulatory compliance for global auto markets; This should be an incredible boon to European industry! Instead, it’s bankrupting domestic industry, accelerating the continent’s deindustrialization, & funding the rise of an adversarial regional hegemon. (Conrad Bastable)

• How to be a Good Client: My general rule of thumb here is the more information the better. Good financial advisors want as much information about your circumstances as possible so they can help you make more strategic decisions. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• Data Centers Could Make or Break Electricity Affordability: How AI factories are inflating grid costs, yet hold the key to lower rates. (Power & Policy)

• How Flying on a Private Jet Became the No. 1 Marker of Real Wealth: Demand is up for private aviation, the luxury that separates the 1% from the 0.1%. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Geological Sublime: Butterflies, deep time, and climate change (Harper’s Magazine)

• Why Marriage Survives: The institution has adapted, and is showing new signs of resilience. (The Atlantic)

• Humanlike? Interpreting the emotional lives of animals requires a subtler and more nuanced understanding of anthropomorphism (Aeon)

• 4.6 Billion Years On, the Sun Is Having a Moment: In the past two years, without much notice, solar power has begun to truly transform the world’s energy system. (New Yorker)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Tim Ferriss, author of five #1 New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestsellers, including The 4-Hour Workweek and Tools of Titans. He is also host of The Tim Ferriss Show podcast, which has had more than a billion downloads. Ferriss was named to Fast Company‘s “Most Innovative Business People” and one of Fortune‘s “40 under 40.” He is an angel investor/advisor to firms such as Shopify, Twitter, Uber, Alibaba, clear and more than fifty others

 

The Tech Industry Is Huge—and Europe’s Share of It Is Very Small

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

The post 10 Camp Kotok Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hemispheric Defense: Trump Directs Military For Kinetic Ops Against Foreign Drug Cartels

Per The New York Times reporting, President Trump has issued a new directive authorizing the Department of Defense (DoD) to conduct direct military operations against select Latin American drug cartels designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). This represents a major escalation in the administration's counter-cartel posture, moving beyond law enforcement and intelligence support to offensive kinetic missions. 

The directive, according to people familiar with the matter, provides legal cover for potential direct U.S. military operations at sea and on foreign soil, bypassing the traditional law enforcement framework.

"It signals Mr. Trump's continued willingness to use military forces to carry out what has primarily been considered a law enforcement responsibility to curb the flow of fentanyl and other illegal drugs," The New York Times wrote in the report. 

The move follows the deployment of active-duty and National Guard troops along the southern border, expanding surveillance via reconnaissance aircraft, and designating multiple cartels and gangs as FTOs, including Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles, which the administration alleges is run by Nicolás Maduro. On Thursday, the U.S. increased its bounty on Maduro's capture to $50 million. 

Recently, the Treasury Department accused Cartel de los Soles of providing material support to Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico. Both cartels have been designated as FTOs, which the Treasury said are "threatening the peace and security of the United States."

Trump administration lawyers, including the new Pentagon general counsel and head of the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, are expected to face early tests in determining what operations are legally permissible. 

NYT noted, "Trump's new directive appears to envision a different approach, focused on U.S. forces directly capturing or killing people involved in the drug trade." 

Earlier this year, we provided readers with the understanding that the groundwork was being laid for these types of authorizations, including capture/kill missions, maritime interdictions, and cross-border SOF raids against high-value targets: 

• USAF Spy Plane Runs SIGINT Operation Near Cabo As U.S. Preps For Potential Cartel Fight

• USAF Spy Jet Flies Second SIGINT Operation On US Border With Focus On Narco Hub

• Border Czar "Expects" Kinetic Warfare Between U.S. Troops & Mexican Drug Cartels

• U.S. Designates Mexican Cartels As "Foreign Terrorists," Signaling Financial Warfare Looms

• US P-3B Orion Spy Plane Spotted Over Mexico As SIGINT Ops Target Cartels

• U.S. Special Forces Deploy To Mexico For "Training" Mission Following Spy Plane SIGINT Operations

• Trump Weighs Drone Strikes On Mexican Cartel Terrorists Amid Major Hemispheric Defense Push

• Trump Mulls Deploying Special Forces To Assassinate Mexican Drug Lords: Report

• Former Green Beret: Trump Can "Turn Loose Delta Force" On The Cartels

Trump's target of cartels is an initiative that appears nested within a broader strategic framework referred to as "Hemispheric Defense," aimed at securing the Western Hemisphere against transnational criminal gangs and Beijing. 

The primary objective will be to fracture cartel command-and-control nodes to disrupt fentanyl trafficking networks, particularly those dependent on precursor chemical shipments originating from China (hybrid warfare) that kill 100,000 Americans every year. It's likely that before the kinetic action begins, the U.S. Treasury will exert more financial pressure on these cartels to disrupt their financial networks. 

Source: Heritage Foundation

If implemented, this directive marks a major doctrinal shift for the U.S. to secure the Western Hemisphere in a world fracturing into a dangerous bipolar state. There are risks that this action could spark diplomatic fallout with Mexico and other surrounding countries.

Another risk is that cartels may retaliate with asymmetric attacks targeting U.S. personnel, diplomatic buildings, or infrastructure. What's worse is that the Biden-Harris regime of far-left globalists flooded the nation with cartel members. There is a coming storm. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/09/2025 - 06:00

The Government Is Not Your Friend

Authored by 'Shinobi' via BitcoinMagazine.com,

This week’s guilty verdict for Roman Storm on the count of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money service business is absolutely insane. 

FinCEN, the regulator responsible for licensing, monitoring, and enforcement actions concerning criminal activity in money transmission has itself explicitly stated that self-custodial tooling that facilitates the transmission of value using cryptocurrencies are not money transmitters and are not subject to the relevant regulations.

So, how did we get here? Eight months after the election of a president who describes himself as a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency advocate, after the Department of Justice themselves have explicitly stated that they are not going to engage in regulation by prosecution, or prosecute mixing services, how was Roman Storm found guilty?

There is nothing to describe this situation except pure, unbridled insanity. Incoherence. Hypocrisy and contradiction. There is a lesson here, though, one that I think it’s time more people in this space learn. 

The government’s word is worthless. It means nothing. 

They will continue cracking down on privacy, they will continue pushing KYC surveillance through things like the GENIUS Act and through the backdoor, applying them to just stablecoins (for now). They will continue treating the desire for privacy as evidence of criminal intent. They will do all these things while talking out of the other side of their mouth about supporting Bitcoiners and the “importance of self custody.” 

This is what the government does. This is what politicians do. It is inherent in their very nature. 

We need to stop treating these people as our friends. We need to stop pretending and lying to ourselves that they can be won over and become powerful allies to push the values and tools that we wish to see in the world. They are not our friends. They will not become allies, sharing a common cause with us. They are our enemies. 

It is time to stop pretending. These people must be treated as hostile, and dealt with as such. 

We need to stop begging them for clauses and riders in bills. We need to take them to court. We need to stop kissing their ass and pandering to their egos and notion of public persona. We need to call them out as the two-faced spineless people they are. 

If there is any legitimacy whatsoever to the legal foundations of the United States government, we do not need new laws, we do not need these people’s permission — we have the Constitution. Remind them of that in court. 

If, at the end of all of that, this system is so corrupt and hypocritical that it functionally ignores the constitutional rights of Americans (and non-Americans), then we need to ignore them.

Civil disobedience is the last mechanism we have to hold the government accountable to the foundational constraints they are built upon short of violence. It is time to use it. 

Free human beings do not ask for their freedom; they take it. In a digital age creeping ever closer to Orwellian totalitarianism, that is the only way you will ever attain it.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 23:25

These Are The World's Most (And Least) Powerful Passports

Singapore has the most powerful passport in the world, with its citizens able to visit 193 countries and territories without a prior visa, according to the Henley Passport Index.

Japan and South Korea come in second place, with its citizens able to visit 190 countries, followed by EU countries Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Denmark and Spain in joint third, with access to 189 countries.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, even though the United States is a little further down the list, coming in 10th place, it still yields considerable power, enabling citizens to enter 182 countries without major restrictions. It’s a level of freedom also enjoyed by passport holders in Lithuania and Iceland.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the other end of the scale, the situation is very different.

For passport holders in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, for example, travel is much more restrictive.

The Afghan passport wields the least power of the ranking, with just 25 destinations permissible visa-free. The situation in Syria and Iraq isn’t much better, at 27 and 30 destinations, respectively.

The Henley Passport Index draws from data from the International Air Transport Authority (IATA), including 199 different passports and 227 different travel destinations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 23:00

Three Years Later, The American People Deserve The Truth About Mar-a-Lago Raid

Authored by Julie Kelly via declassified.live,

No photo other than his mugshot is more representative of the unprecedented lawfare against Donald Trump than the photo of alleged classified documents discovered during the nine-hour armed raid of Mar-a-Lago on August 8, 2022.

On one hand, Democrats, the news media, and even some NeverTrumpers (clears throat, side-eyes National Review) believed the iconic picture proved Trump had absconded with secret government records and carelessly left them around his Palm Beach mansion, endangering national security.

Trump supporters, on the other hand, viewed the photo with disgust, a reminder of just how far the Biden regime and his FBI would go to finally put Trump in handcuffs.

But nearly two years later, the same Department of Justice that added the picture to a 2022 court filing for the sole purpose of ginning up media coverage, which worked like a charm, finally admitted the photo was staged.

The stunt was revealed during court proceedings last year in southern Florida in the so-called documents case. (How is it only a year ago?) In response to Trump’s accusations the FBI mishandled items taken from his home that infamous day, the DOJ—in the hands of Special Counsel Jack Smith by then—confessed FBI agents brought the colorful classified cover sheets to Mar-a-Lago.

At first, Smith said the FBI used the sheets only as “placeholders” indicating where the alleged illegal files had been found. But he finally had to fess up:

“As part of the processing of seized documents marked classified, the [evidence response team] photographed the documents (with appropriate cover sheets added by FBI personnel) next to the box in which they were located,” Smith wrote in a June 2024 brief.

But nowhere did the cover sheets indicate the attached files were evidence. In other words, the photo not only misrepresented the condition in which “classified documents” were found but proved that agents had tampered with the president’s belongings—consisting of evidence in the case—in preparation for a publicity stunt.

As Judge Aileen Cannon continued to let Smith’s team hang themselves in court hearings and briefs—she also had just busted Bratt for lying about the condition of all the evidence seized that day—the scandal became moot in July 2024 when she dismissed the case after determining Smith’s appointment violated the Constitution. And after Trump won the election, the entire case, at least in court, became moot for good.

A Dangerous Raid, Fake Cover Sheets, and a Corrupt Prosecution

But it is not, and should not be, moot for the president, his family, and the American people. While the optics of the raid made for must-watch cable news coverage, the raid itself posed a danger to individuals, including Secret Service agents and Mar-a-Lago employees, since more than two dozen FBI agents arrived armed without identification early that morning.

Further, as I broke on May 22, 2024, Chris Wray’s FBI had authorized the use of lethal force; routine or not, no such policy should have been included, or even considered, as part of the unprecedented search of a former president.

Agents rummaged through the personal belongings of Melania and Barron Trump in potential violation of the broad search warrant terms. In her 2024 autobiography, Mrs. Trump described how she felt afterwards: “I never imagined such an invasion of privacy and violation of rights could occur in my adoptive country,” she wrote in comparing the Biden regime’s tactics to those of her native Slovenia. “It was with a tremendous sense of sadness that I realized such unlawful acts were now possible here. Americans need to understand the dangers posed by a federal government that feels entitled to invade our homes and our lives.”

The ensuing investigation involved more egregious violations of privacy. The FBI obtained an extensive trove of surveillance footage from Mar-a-Lago; the Trump-hating chief judge of the D.C. District Court pierced attorney-client privilege between the president and his lawyer in the matter by claiming they were covering up a potential crime. The lawyer, Evan Corcoran, was forced to turn over private documents and testify before a grand jury.

Luckily, it appears payback is in progress; recent reporting suggests the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago could constitute a seminal event in the “grand conspiracy” investigation announced this week by Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Trump allies for years have speculated the purpose of the raid, ordered by then Attorney General Merrick Garland, was to retrieve documents related to the Russiagate hoax, the subject of the DOJ’s current conspiracy probe. “Why was there a raid at Mar-a-Lago?” Devin Nunes, former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee who blew the lid off the Russiagate hoax back in 2018, rhetorically asked during a Fox News interview last month. “What led to that raid? What led to the appointment of that special counsel? What the hell were they doing at Mar-a-Lago, what were they looking for?”

Good questions that demand answers. The raid, after all, not only represented more fruit of the poisonous Russiagate tree but also another manufactured crime against the president: the “willful retention of national defense material.”

Another Bogus ‘Crime’ With Same Agenda

When Jack Smith announced his 38-count indictment against Trump and two aides in June 2023, the special counsel took on a dire tone. “The men and women of the United States intelligence community and our armed forces dedicate their lives to protecting our nation and its people,” Smith said in a public statement. “Our laws that protect national defense information are critical to the safety and security of the United States and they must be enforced. Violations of those laws put our country at risk.”

Smith, however, never proved anything of the sort. To the contrary, Smith only proved his feckless team of Trump-hating thugs botched evidence, misled and routinely disrespected Judge Cannon—who at one point threatened to remove David Harbach, the other lead prosecutor in the case, from her courtroom for his bad behavior—and admitted the government had no evidence the boxes that had been moved around Mar-a-Lago, the basis for obstruction charges, contained any of the alleged “classified” files.

Additionally, emails showed how the Biden DOJ had been in cahoots with the National Archives and the Biden White House for months to concoct the documents case, as I covered here, in what eerily mirrors facets of what we now know happened in the Obama White House in 2016. (With at least one of the same players, Lisa Monaco, involved in both.)

Trump officials are in the process of bringing some accountability; firings of agents, investigators, and prosecutors who participated in the case remain ongoing.

But the American people—and the Trumps—deserve a full accounting of the truth.

As Mrs. Trump said in her book, “the possibility of similar abuses occurring domestically demands our attention and action, as we must safeguard our liberties before they are lost forever.”

Bravo.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 22:35

'Far From Frantic': How Active Has The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Been?

Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June to November, but only a sliver of total activity usually occurs before August.

That makes early-season developments a useful pulse check on what may lie ahead.

So far, as Visual Capitalist shows in the chart below, 2025’s pulse is steady but far from frantic.

A Measured Start to 2025

The graphic above, created by USAFacts using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, plots every Atlantic system since 2015 by the month it formed and the strongest category it reached. Green dots denote tropical storms, blue dots Category 1–2 hurricanes, and purple dots Category 3+ “major” hurricanes.

So far in 2025, the dots are sparse: four storms, none exceeding tropical-storm strength. By early August a typical season averages three named storms, so this year is slightly ahead of the curve. That said, it’s far calmer than 2020, which was the early-season outlier.

Below is a detailed look at every Atlantic storm (2015-2025) and its peak intensity:

Storm Name Month Year Classification Andrea June 2025 Tropical storm Barry June 2025 Tropical storm Chantal July 2025 Tropical storm Dexter August 2025 Tropical storm         Alberto June 2024 Tropical Storm Beryl June-July 2024 Hurricane Chris June-July 2024 Tropical Storm Debby August 2024 Hurricane Ernesto August 2024 Hurricane Francine September 2024 Hurricane Gordon September 2024 Tropical Storm Eight (PTC) August 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Helene September 2024 Hurricane Isaac September-October 2024 Hurricane Joyce September-October 2024 Tropical Storm Kirk September-October 2024 Hurricane Leslie October 2024 Hurricane Milton October 2024 Hurricane Nadine October 2024 Tropical Storm Oscar October 2024 Hurricane Patty October-November 2024 Tropical Storm Rafael October-November 2024 Hurricane Sara November 2024 Tropical Storm         Arlene June 2023 Tropical Storm Bret June 2023 Tropical Storm Cindy June-July 2023 Tropical Storm Don July 2023 Hurricane Emily August 2023 Tropical Storm Franklin August 2023 Hurricane Gert August-September 2023 Tropical Storm Harold August 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia August 2023 Hurricane Jose August-September 2023 Tropical Storm Katia September 2023 Tropical Storm Lee September 2023 Hurricane Margot September 2023 Tropical Storm Nigel September 2023 Hurricane Ophelia September 2023 Tropical Storm Philippe September-October 2023 Tropical Storm Rina September-October 2023 Tropical Storm Sean October 2023 Tropical Storm Tammy October 2023 Hurricane Vince October 2023 Tropical Storm Whitney November 2023 Tropical Storm         Alex June 2022 Hurricane Bonnie June-July 2022 Tropical Storm Colin July 2022 Tropical Storm Danielle September 2022 Hurricane Earl September 2022 Hurricane Fiona September 2022 Hurricane Gaston September 2022 Tropical Storm Hermine September 2022 Tropical Storm Ian September 2022 Hurricane Julia October 2022 Hurricane Karl October 2022 Tropical Storm Lisa October-November 2022 Hurricane Martin November 2022 Hurricane Nicole November 2022 Hurricane         Ana May 2021 Tropical Storm Bill June 2021 Tropical Storm Claudette June 2021 Tropical Storm Danny June 2021 Hurricane Elsa June-July 2021 Hurricane Fred August 2021 Tropical Storm Grace August 2021 Hurricane Henri August 2021 Hurricane Ida August 2021 Hurricane Julian August-September 2021 Tropical Storm Kate August-September 2021 Tropical Storm Larry September 2021 Hurricane Mindy September 2021 Tropical Storm Nicholas September 2021 Hurricane Odette September 2021 Tropical Storm Peter September 2021 Hurricane Rose September 2021 Hurricane Sam September-October 2021 Hurricane Teresa September 2021 Tropical Storm Victor September-October 2021 Hurricane Wanda October-November 2021 Tropical Storm         Arthur May 2020 Tropical Storm Bertha May 2020 Tropical Storm Cristobal June 2020 Tropical Storm Dolly June 2020 Tropical Storm Edouard July 2020 Tropical Storm Fay July 2020 Tropical Storm Gonzalo July 2020 Hurricane Hanna July 2020 Hurricane Isaias July-August 2020 Hurricane Josephine August 2020 Tropical Storm Kyle August 2020 Tropical Storm Laura August 2020 Hurricane Marco August 2020 Hurricane Nana September 2020 Hurricane Omar September 2020 Tropical Storm Paulette September 2020 Hurricane Rene September 2020 Tropical Storm Sally September 2020 Hurricane Teddy September 2020 Hurricane Vicky September 2020 Tropical Storm Wilfred September 2020 Tropical Storm Alpha September 2020 Subtropical Storm Beta September 2020 Hurricane Gamma October 2020 Tropical Storm Delta October 2020 Hurricane Epsilon October 2020 Hurricane Zeta October 2020 Hurricane Eta November 2020 Hurricane Theta November 2020 Tropical Storm Iota November 2020 Hurricane         Andrea May 2019 Subtropical Storm Barry July 2019 Hurricane Chantal August 2019 Tropical Storm Dorian August-September 2019 Hurricane Erin August 2019 Tropical Storm Fernand September 2019 Tropical Storm Gabrielle September 2019 Tropical Storm Humberto September 2019 Hurricane Imelda September 2019 Tropical Storm Jerry September 2019 Hurricane Karen September 2019 Tropical Storm Lorenzo September-October 2019 Hurricane Melissa November 2019 Tropical Storm Nestor October 2019 Tropical Storm Olga October 2019 Tropical Storm Pablo October 2019 Hurricane Rebekah October 2019 Tropical Storm Sebastien November 2019 Tropical Storm         Alberto May 2018 Subtropical Storm Beryl July 2018 Hurricane Chris July 2018 Hurricane Debby August 2018 Tropical Storm Ernesto August 2018 Tropical Storm Florence August-September 2018 Hurricane Gordon September 2018 Tropical Storm Helene September 2018 Hurricane Isaac September 2018 Hurricane Joyce September 2018 Tropical Storm Kirk September-October 2018 Tropical Storm Leslie September-November 2018 Hurricane Michael October 2018 Hurricane Nadine October 2018 Tropical Storm Oscar October-November 2018 Hurricane         Arlene April 2017 Tropical Storm Bret June 2017 Tropical Storm Cindy June 2017 Tropical Storm Don July 2017 Tropical Storm Emily July-August 2017 Tropical Storm Franklin August 2017 Hurricane Gert August 2017 Hurricane Harvey August 2017 Hurricane Irma August-September 2017 Hurricane Jose September 2017 Hurricane Katia September 2017 Hurricane Lee September 2017 Hurricane Maria September 2017 Hurricane Nate October 2017 Hurricane Ophelia October 2017 Hurricane Philippe October 2017 Tropical Storm Rina November 2017 Tropical Storm         Alex January 2016 Hurricane Bonnie May-June 2016 Tropical Storm Colin June 2016 Tropical Storm Danielle June 2016 Tropical Storm Earl August 2016 Hurricane Fiona August 2016 Hurricane Gaston August 2016 Hurricane Hermine August-September 2016 Hurricane Ian September 2016 Tropical Storm Julia September 2016 Tropical Storm Karl September 2016 Tropical Storm Lisa September 2016 Tropical Storm Matthew September-October 2016 Hurricane Nicole October 2016 Hurricane Otto November 2016 Hurricane         Ana May 2015 Tropical Storm Bill June 2015 Tropical Storm Claudette July 2015 Tropical Storm Danny August 2015 Hurricane Erika August 2015 Tropical Storm Fred August-September 2015 Hurricane Grace September 2015 Tropical Storm Henri September 2015 Tropical Storm Ida September 2015 Hurricane Joaquin September-October 2015 Hurricane Kate November 2015 Hurricane Where Storms Hit Home

The county-level map below shades areas that have endured at least one bout of 39 mph winds since 2015. The deepest purples hug the Gulf Coast, Florida peninsula, and the Outer Banks, but inland regions from Georgia’s wiregrass to eastern North Carolina also light up, evidence that wind impacts reach far beyond shorelines.

For perspective on how damaging these systems can be, see our ranking of the costliest hurricanes to hit the U.S.

Looking Ahead

Climatology shows the first hurricane typically spins up in early to mid-August, with major-category hurricanes following later that month. Warm sea-surface temperatures and a likely transition toward neutral ENSO conditions could still unlock the ingredients for rapid intensification. In short: a quiet opening is no guarantee of a quiet finish.

As peak season approaches, preparedness remains key for coastal communities.

Explore our companion visualization, Visualizing the Typical Atlantic Hurricane Season, and hundreds of other bite-sized data stories.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 21:20

'Far From Frantic': How Active Has The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Been?

Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June to November, but only a sliver of total activity usually occurs before August.

That makes early-season developments a useful pulse check on what may lie ahead.

So far, as Visual Capitalist shows in the chart below, 2025’s pulse is steady but far from frantic.

A Measured Start to 2025

The graphic above, created by USAFacts using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, plots every Atlantic system since 2015 by the month it formed and the strongest category it reached. Green dots denote tropical storms, blue dots Category 1–2 hurricanes, and purple dots Category 3+ “major” hurricanes.

So far in 2025, the dots are sparse: four storms, none exceeding tropical-storm strength. By early August a typical season averages three named storms, so this year is slightly ahead of the curve. That said, it’s far calmer than 2020, which was the early-season outlier.

Below is a detailed look at every Atlantic storm (2015-2025) and its peak intensity:

Storm Name Month Year Classification Andrea June 2025 Tropical storm Barry June 2025 Tropical storm Chantal July 2025 Tropical storm Dexter August 2025 Tropical storm         Alberto June 2024 Tropical Storm Beryl June-July 2024 Hurricane Chris June-July 2024 Tropical Storm Debby August 2024 Hurricane Ernesto August 2024 Hurricane Francine September 2024 Hurricane Gordon September 2024 Tropical Storm Eight (PTC) August 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Helene September 2024 Hurricane Isaac September-October 2024 Hurricane Joyce September-October 2024 Tropical Storm Kirk September-October 2024 Hurricane Leslie October 2024 Hurricane Milton October 2024 Hurricane Nadine October 2024 Tropical Storm Oscar October 2024 Hurricane Patty October-November 2024 Tropical Storm Rafael October-November 2024 Hurricane Sara November 2024 Tropical Storm         Arlene June 2023 Tropical Storm Bret June 2023 Tropical Storm Cindy June-July 2023 Tropical Storm Don July 2023 Hurricane Emily August 2023 Tropical Storm Franklin August 2023 Hurricane Gert August-September 2023 Tropical Storm Harold August 2023 Tropical Storm Idalia August 2023 Hurricane Jose August-September 2023 Tropical Storm Katia September 2023 Tropical Storm Lee September 2023 Hurricane Margot September 2023 Tropical Storm Nigel September 2023 Hurricane Ophelia September 2023 Tropical Storm Philippe September-October 2023 Tropical Storm Rina September-October 2023 Tropical Storm Sean October 2023 Tropical Storm Tammy October 2023 Hurricane Vince October 2023 Tropical Storm Whitney November 2023 Tropical Storm         Alex June 2022 Hurricane Bonnie June-July 2022 Tropical Storm Colin July 2022 Tropical Storm Danielle September 2022 Hurricane Earl September 2022 Hurricane Fiona September 2022 Hurricane Gaston September 2022 Tropical Storm Hermine September 2022 Tropical Storm Ian September 2022 Hurricane Julia October 2022 Hurricane Karl October 2022 Tropical Storm Lisa October-November 2022 Hurricane Martin November 2022 Hurricane Nicole November 2022 Hurricane         Ana May 2021 Tropical Storm Bill June 2021 Tropical Storm Claudette June 2021 Tropical Storm Danny June 2021 Hurricane Elsa June-July 2021 Hurricane Fred August 2021 Tropical Storm Grace August 2021 Hurricane Henri August 2021 Hurricane Ida August 2021 Hurricane Julian August-September 2021 Tropical Storm Kate August-September 2021 Tropical Storm Larry September 2021 Hurricane Mindy September 2021 Tropical Storm Nicholas September 2021 Hurricane Odette September 2021 Tropical Storm Peter September 2021 Hurricane Rose September 2021 Hurricane Sam September-October 2021 Hurricane Teresa September 2021 Tropical Storm Victor September-October 2021 Hurricane Wanda October-November 2021 Tropical Storm         Arthur May 2020 Tropical Storm Bertha May 2020 Tropical Storm Cristobal June 2020 Tropical Storm Dolly June 2020 Tropical Storm Edouard July 2020 Tropical Storm Fay July 2020 Tropical Storm Gonzalo July 2020 Hurricane Hanna July 2020 Hurricane Isaias July-August 2020 Hurricane Josephine August 2020 Tropical Storm Kyle August 2020 Tropical Storm Laura August 2020 Hurricane Marco August 2020 Hurricane Nana September 2020 Hurricane Omar September 2020 Tropical Storm Paulette September 2020 Hurricane Rene September 2020 Tropical Storm Sally September 2020 Hurricane Teddy September 2020 Hurricane Vicky September 2020 Tropical Storm Wilfred September 2020 Tropical Storm Alpha September 2020 Subtropical Storm Beta September 2020 Hurricane Gamma October 2020 Tropical Storm Delta October 2020 Hurricane Epsilon October 2020 Hurricane Zeta October 2020 Hurricane Eta November 2020 Hurricane Theta November 2020 Tropical Storm Iota November 2020 Hurricane         Andrea May 2019 Subtropical Storm Barry July 2019 Hurricane Chantal August 2019 Tropical Storm Dorian August-September 2019 Hurricane Erin August 2019 Tropical Storm Fernand September 2019 Tropical Storm Gabrielle September 2019 Tropical Storm Humberto September 2019 Hurricane Imelda September 2019 Tropical Storm Jerry September 2019 Hurricane Karen September 2019 Tropical Storm Lorenzo September-October 2019 Hurricane Melissa November 2019 Tropical Storm Nestor October 2019 Tropical Storm Olga October 2019 Tropical Storm Pablo October 2019 Hurricane Rebekah October 2019 Tropical Storm Sebastien November 2019 Tropical Storm         Alberto May 2018 Subtropical Storm Beryl July 2018 Hurricane Chris July 2018 Hurricane Debby August 2018 Tropical Storm Ernesto August 2018 Tropical Storm Florence August-September 2018 Hurricane Gordon September 2018 Tropical Storm Helene September 2018 Hurricane Isaac September 2018 Hurricane Joyce September 2018 Tropical Storm Kirk September-October 2018 Tropical Storm Leslie September-November 2018 Hurricane Michael October 2018 Hurricane Nadine October 2018 Tropical Storm Oscar October-November 2018 Hurricane         Arlene April 2017 Tropical Storm Bret June 2017 Tropical Storm Cindy June 2017 Tropical Storm Don July 2017 Tropical Storm Emily July-August 2017 Tropical Storm Franklin August 2017 Hurricane Gert August 2017 Hurricane Harvey August 2017 Hurricane Irma August-September 2017 Hurricane Jose September 2017 Hurricane Katia September 2017 Hurricane Lee September 2017 Hurricane Maria September 2017 Hurricane Nate October 2017 Hurricane Ophelia October 2017 Hurricane Philippe October 2017 Tropical Storm Rina November 2017 Tropical Storm         Alex January 2016 Hurricane Bonnie May-June 2016 Tropical Storm Colin June 2016 Tropical Storm Danielle June 2016 Tropical Storm Earl August 2016 Hurricane Fiona August 2016 Hurricane Gaston August 2016 Hurricane Hermine August-September 2016 Hurricane Ian September 2016 Tropical Storm Julia September 2016 Tropical Storm Karl September 2016 Tropical Storm Lisa September 2016 Tropical Storm Matthew September-October 2016 Hurricane Nicole October 2016 Hurricane Otto November 2016 Hurricane         Ana May 2015 Tropical Storm Bill June 2015 Tropical Storm Claudette July 2015 Tropical Storm Danny August 2015 Hurricane Erika August 2015 Tropical Storm Fred August-September 2015 Hurricane Grace September 2015 Tropical Storm Henri September 2015 Tropical Storm Ida September 2015 Hurricane Joaquin September-October 2015 Hurricane Kate November 2015 Hurricane Where Storms Hit Home

The county-level map below shades areas that have endured at least one bout of 39 mph winds since 2015. The deepest purples hug the Gulf Coast, Florida peninsula, and the Outer Banks, but inland regions from Georgia’s wiregrass to eastern North Carolina also light up, evidence that wind impacts reach far beyond shorelines.

For perspective on how damaging these systems can be, see our ranking of the costliest hurricanes to hit the U.S.

Looking Ahead

Climatology shows the first hurricane typically spins up in early to mid-August, with major-category hurricanes following later that month. Warm sea-surface temperatures and a likely transition toward neutral ENSO conditions could still unlock the ingredients for rapid intensification. In short: a quiet opening is no guarantee of a quiet finish.

As peak season approaches, preparedness remains key for coastal communities.

Explore our companion visualization, Visualizing the Typical Atlantic Hurricane Season, and hundreds of other bite-sized data stories.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 21:20

DOJ Moves To Unseal Exhibits From Epstein, Maxwell Grand Jury Investigations

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Friday asked a federal court to unseal grand jury exhibits from the investigations into sex traffickers Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.

In a submission to U.S. District Judge Richard Berman and fellow U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer, the DOJ said it wants grand jury exhibits in the two cases unsealed with redactions to keep the identities of their victims private.

Earlier this week, the DOJ asked the judges to unseal grand jury transcripts in order to compare those documents with the public record.

“As there are parties whose names appear in the grand jury exhibits but did not appear in the grand jury transcripts, the Government is undertaking to notify such parties to the extent their names appear in grand jury exhibits that were not publicly admitted at the Maxwell trial (and they were not already notified in connection with the request to unseal the grand jury transcripts),” the Justice Department’s attorneys wrote.

The latest request relates to the 2019 criminal case that was brought against Epstein, which was later dropped after he was found dead in a New York City jail cell, as well as the criminal case against Maxwell.

She was convicted on child sex trafficking charges in 2021 and is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence in a federal facility.

Friday’s filing by the government also said that some of the evidence in the Epstein and Maxwell cases may overlap with exhibits that were released to the public when Maxwell went on trial.

Also, the DOJ said that it will later submit sealed submissions to clarify what sections of the Epstein and Maxwell grand jury exhibits have already been made available to the public. The government has also compared the exhibits against the trial record and civil complaints that were filed by certain victims, the court filing said.

It’s not clear what the exhibits may include or when they could be unsealed.

The Epstein grand jury met twice in 2019, on June 18 and July 2 of that year, the DOJ letter said on Aug. 4. Meanwhile, the Maxwell grand jury met three times, on June 29 and July 8 of 2020, and on March 29, 2021, according to the letter.

That letter had also asked for the release of the five grand jury transcripts and told the judges that the DOJ may also request the unsealing of grand jury exhibits. The agency said it wants several more days to craft arguments for that request.

Epstein’s death was officially ruled a suicide by hanging.

Previously, in 2008, Epstein was sentenced to 13 months in work custody for procuring a child for prostitution and sex trafficking.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 20:55

DOJ Moves To Unseal Exhibits From Epstein, Maxwell Grand Jury Investigations

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) on Friday asked a federal court to unseal grand jury exhibits from the investigations into sex traffickers Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.

In a submission to U.S. District Judge Richard Berman and fellow U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer, the DOJ said it wants grand jury exhibits in the two cases unsealed with redactions to keep the identities of their victims private.

Earlier this week, the DOJ asked the judges to unseal grand jury transcripts in order to compare those documents with the public record.

“As there are parties whose names appear in the grand jury exhibits but did not appear in the grand jury transcripts, the Government is undertaking to notify such parties to the extent their names appear in grand jury exhibits that were not publicly admitted at the Maxwell trial (and they were not already notified in connection with the request to unseal the grand jury transcripts),” the Justice Department’s attorneys wrote.

The latest request relates to the 2019 criminal case that was brought against Epstein, which was later dropped after he was found dead in a New York City jail cell, as well as the criminal case against Maxwell.

She was convicted on child sex trafficking charges in 2021 and is currently serving a 20-year prison sentence in a federal facility.

Friday’s filing by the government also said that some of the evidence in the Epstein and Maxwell cases may overlap with exhibits that were released to the public when Maxwell went on trial.

Also, the DOJ said that it will later submit sealed submissions to clarify what sections of the Epstein and Maxwell grand jury exhibits have already been made available to the public. The government has also compared the exhibits against the trial record and civil complaints that were filed by certain victims, the court filing said.

It’s not clear what the exhibits may include or when they could be unsealed.

The Epstein grand jury met twice in 2019, on June 18 and July 2 of that year, the DOJ letter said on Aug. 4. Meanwhile, the Maxwell grand jury met three times, on June 29 and July 8 of 2020, and on March 29, 2021, according to the letter.

That letter had also asked for the release of the five grand jury transcripts and told the judges that the DOJ may also request the unsealing of grand jury exhibits. The agency said it wants several more days to craft arguments for that request.

Epstein’s death was officially ruled a suicide by hanging.

Previously, in 2008, Epstein was sentenced to 13 months in work custody for procuring a child for prostitution and sex trafficking.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 20:55

Social Security Insolvency Projected 6 Months Sooner, Chief Actuary Says

The Social Security trust funds are projected to run out about six months earlier than previously estimated, according to a new analysis from the program’s chief actuary.

Letters sent on Aug. 5 to Sen. Ron Wyden (D‑Ore.) and Rep. Steven Horsford (D‑Nev.) say the combined Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) funds are now expected to be depleted in the first quarter of 2034, rather than the third quarter of that year as in the most recent trustees’ report.

The 2025 trustees’ report, released in June, had already moved up the combined depletion date by one year—from 2035 in the prior report to 2034—reflecting worsening demographics and legislative changes.

Under the new analysis carried out in response to requests from Wyden and Horsford, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act accelerates that timeline further by about six months.

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the actuary’s letter attributes the earlier depletion to income‑tax provisions in the law, which make lower tax rates enacted in 2017 permanent and temporarily expand deductions for older Americans.

It estimates the changes will reduce revenue from taxing Social Security benefits and increase program costs by about $168.6 billion through 2034, worsening the program’s 75‑year actuarial deficit from 3.82 percent to 3.98 percent of taxable payroll.

When viewed separately, the OASI fund—which pays retirement and survivor benefits—is now forecast to run dry in the fourth quarter of 2032, roughly three months earlier than the previous estimate of the first quarter of 2033.

The DI fund, by contrast, remains solvent through the end of the 75-year forecast window. However, because the two funds are often assessed together to reflect total benefit obligations, the combined reserves are still expected to be exhausted by early 2034.

The actuary’s office said the analysis covers only the tax‑related provisions and will serve as a baseline for the 2026 trustees’ report, which will incorporate updated data and assumptions. In particular, the forthcoming trustees’ report will also include proposals intended to extend the solvency of Social Security.

Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said the actuary’s findings confirm earlier warnings that recent Republican tax and spending policies are straining the program.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The Trump administration has said its tax policy will stimulate economic growth and expand the tax base, mitigating the fiscal effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act without raising tax rates.

A White House Council of Economic Advisers paper from May stated that the permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and business incentives in the bill would boost capital investment, wages, and job growth, strengthening government revenue streams over time.

Proposals to Shore Up the Program

Democrats have largely focused on raising payroll taxes for higher earners to close the funding gap. The Social Security tax currently applies to 6.2 percent of wages up to $176,100 in 2025, and income above that level is exempt. The wage base is adjusted annually for inflation by the Social Security Administration.

A proposal introduced in 2023 by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D‑Mass.)—known as the Social Security Expansion Act—would apply the tax to earnings above $250,000 and boost benefits for some groups. Proponents say the measure would keep the program solvent through 2096, though conservative groups such as the Heritage Foundation say that it would amount to one of the largest tax increases in U.S. history and risk broader economic harm.

Republican plans have taken a different approach, focusing on changes to benefits and eligibility rather than new taxes. A blueprint released last spring by the Republican Study Committee—the largest group of conservatives in the House—called for gradually raising the retirement age, adjusting benefit formulas, and limiting certain spousal and dependent benefits for high‑income retirees.

Some analysts, such as those at Brookings, have suggested that any lasting fix will likely require a mix of tax increases and benefit adjustments, phased in gradually to give workers and retirees time to plan. They note that previous solvency deals, such as the 1983 reforms, combined measures from both parties to extend the program’s life for decades.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/08/2025 - 20:30