AUKUS-ward If You "Don't Do Geopolitics"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

US CPI, even weaker-than-expected 0.1% m-o-m headline and core and 2.4% and 2.8% y-o-y, wasn’t the main event. Neither was President Trump again calling for the Fed to cut 100bps at its next meeting to lower US debt-servicing costs (when our Fed-watcher Philip says it will cut 25bps in September, then stop.) Instead - again - it was geoeconomics and geopolitics.

The ECB’s Lagarde used a platform at the PBOC to state that “coercive trade policies are not a sustainable solution to today’s trade tensions” -- in the same way violence is never a solution to violence?-- and are “far more likely to provoke retaliation and lead to outcomes that are mutually damaging” – which is exactly where the threat of violence can come in. Was that aimed at the US or China though? She also added, “That means both surplus and deficit countries must take responsibility and play their part.” Was that aimed at China and Germany as well as the US?

Trump tweeted an unwritten “framework” based on the unwritten Geneva “consensus” would see Chinese students back at US universities and rare earths provided to US firms “up front”, with China facing a 55% US tariff and the US a 10% China tariff. However, the Wall Street Journal says the rare earths are only for six months. It seems this on-off process will continue until one side builds a Harvard or the other gets now-weaponised rare earth processing in place (as Bloomberg puts it: ‘China Hit World’s Pain Point on Trade – and Will Do So Again’). Guess which is easier?

Trump also said he’ll set unilateral tariff rates within two weeks for countries not negotiating in good faith, while Treasury Secretary Bessent added the 90-day tariff pause could be extended for those who are - and that China can’t export its way to prosperity and must prove it’s a reliable trade partner.

Russia offered to help Iran remove the weaponized parts of its nuclear programme and build its civilian reactors. That looks a quid pro quo for the US stepping back on support for Ukraine, toppling other dominoes in the Great Game at the expensive of Kyiv and Brussels.

However, that was eclipsed by the US announcing the removal of non-essential staff from its Iraqi and regional embassies and military bases, the former having been placed on high alert with emergency action committees activated after Iran’s defence minister said they would strike those targets if attacked. Moreover, US Senator Cotton stated: “Today @SecDef confirmed that Iran’s terrorist regime is actively working towards a nuclear weapon. For the sake of our national security, the security of our allies, and millions of civilians in the region this cannot be allowed to happen.” Western intel sources also reportedly state Iran has exploited negotiations to actively diminish the potential impact of military strikes on its nuclear sites.

As such, there are press reports the US will announce the end of Iran nuclear talks within hours. That only appears to leave one option – albeit with the Russian offer in the background, perhaps. None of this is a cheap bluff, if that’s what it is; it’s a card you play knowing it’s costly and only works once… unless it’s an essential move because of expected developments.

To say oil, up around 4% at the time of writing, is not where it would be if an attack on Iran were to transpire is an understatement – if it’s not just US military bases and embassies that Iran hits in response. Welcome to one of the key, stacked, geopolitical, binary scenarios I’d flagged for 2025 as The Year of Living Dangerously.

As if that were not enough, the Pentagon also announced it’s reviewing the AUKUS defence treaty as it can’t build enough nuclear subs (or ships) to provide Australia with them ahead. That’s awkward for those who think stuff just appears and don’t get that, as with rare earths, it doesn’t – with disastrous supply-chain consequences. We now see the same dynamic in the world’s military hegemon - it can’t make enough of what it needs. That’s why --alongside structural reforms-- it needs to bring back industrial production. Yet the same people who lambaste the US for doing that, “because markets”, also lambaste it for not protecting them everywhere for free. Just as awkwardly, this US move comes just after Australia’s PM Albanese said he wouldn’t be bossed around on defence spending by the US and, alongside the UK and New Zealand, sanctioned two Israeli ministers in a way the US didn’t like. 

The message is clear: the US can step back from defending Australia (and New Zealand) just as it has from Europe if the latter won’t step up at a far higher cost than Australia or New Zealand are currently budgeting for.

At the very least, the US seems to be insisting that Canberra pledges to use any US subs vs China in a potential war over Taiwan. Do that and maybe Australia can keep AUKUS - yet they will likely pay a high price elsewhere, including on trade; and if they don’t, they will have to pay an even higher price for defence, at the very least – the US could squeeze Australia (and New Zealand) in many ways, just as it can Europe. In short, it looks like the D for Decision Day I have long warned of may finally loom Down Under after years of have-your-cake-and-eat-it-ism.

Yet showing somebody is still on a sugar high, Australia reportedly thinks a new security pact with Europe, ahead of a possible FTA, is an answer. Sleep well, Aussies (and Kiwis): Spain and Germany are ready to protect you at the drop of a hat, just as you are ready to fight Russia. Even France, which had wanted to play that role, is going to be overstretched with a huge budget deficit and a lot of Europe to patrol now the Baltic states are being mentioned by Russia.

Similarly, geopolitical events have again eclipsed a careful UK government spending review assuming they wouldn’t even when everyone could see they could. In particular, yesterday’s 4-year plan only sees defence meeting at a 2.6% of GDP level from 2027 onwards, then stopping, even as NATO will require 3.5% to 5%, and a failure of AUKUS would send a further shock through Whitehall. That’s not just ‘what is GDP for?’ but ‘who is paying for that GDP?’

Indeed, Bloomberg notes ‘Britain Counts the Mounting Cost of Taxing Wealthy 'Non-Doms’’, where “Over 4,400 business leaders have disclosed an overseas move in the last year”; and as the Telegraph bewails ‘Britain ‘surrendering Gibraltar’ after agreeing to EU passport controls’ where Brits “will have to deal with Spanish guards when they land on the Rock after deal agreed.” Yes, The Rock which once underlined British global naval dominance is now to be in the Schengen zone.

You might want to think none of this really matters compared to a 0.1%. In which case, I would suggest that is about as much of the big picture impacting on inflation that you see.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 13:00

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q1 2025, mortgage debt increased $45 billion, down from $112 billion in Q4. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

Tennessee Sues US Department Of Education Over Hispanic Student Funding

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A civil rights lawsuit filed on June 11 in federal court for the Eastern District of Tennessee claims that a program providing federal money to colleges and universities if Hispanic students make up at least 25 percent of the student body is unconstitutional.

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on June 3, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The lawsuit was brought by the state of Tennessee and Students for Fair Admissions, a group whose lawsuit led the U.S. Supreme Court in 2023 to strike down the use of racial criteria in student admissions at institutions of higher learning in a case called Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard College.

Wednesday’s complaint names the U.S. Department of Education and Education Secretary Linda McMahon as defendants.

The plaintiffs argue that the federal government’s Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSI) grant program unconstitutionally discriminates based on race and ethnicity, according to the complaint.

The Education Department’s Hispanic-Serving Institutions Division provides “grant funding to institutions of higher education to assist with strengthening institutional programs, facilities, and services to expand the educational opportunities for Hispanic Americans and other underrepresented populations,” the Department of Education’s website states.

Congress appropriated $350.6 million for the program in fiscal 2024, education think tank New America reports.

The department may not discriminate on the basis of race or ethnicity, “even when Congress orders it to,” the complaint states.

Despite this, under the federal Higher Education Act the department allocates HSI program funding to colleges and universities only if they meet the “arbitrary ethnic threshold of 25 percent Hispanic” student enrollment, according to the complaint.

Tennessee operates a variety of colleges and universities, all of which serve Hispanic students and low-income students. “But not one of them qualifies to receive grants under the HSI program” because they don’t possess “the right mix of ethnicities on campus,” the complaint states.

“Funds should help needy students regardless of their immutable traits, and the denial of those funds harms students of all races,” according to the complaint.

In its current form, the program engages in “unconstitutional racial balancing” and operates outside the constitutional authority of Congress. The 25 percent minimum Hispanic enrollment provision functions as “a strict racial gatekeeper,” determining which schools may receive millions of dollars under the program, Students for Fair Admissions said in a statement.

Racial balancing is the practice of using race as a factor to seek proportional representation of racial groups in institutions such as schools. Even before its ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard College, the Supreme Court held that racial balancing policies must be weighed under the strict scrutiny standard, which means they must advance a compelling governmental interest and be narrowly tailored.

Tennessee argues the HSI program presents its schools with an impossible choice: they must either forgo millions of dollars in federal grants or participate in illegal racial balancing in admissions so they can boost Hispanic enrollment. A new state law specifically forbids race-based preferences in education, so now state schools are “at risk of violating either state or federal law no matter which direction they turn,” the statement said.

Students for Fair Admissions president Edward Blum said the HSI program is unconstitutional because it conditions receipt of government money on a student body’s racial composition.

The Supreme Court determined in the 2023 ruling that such practices are “patently unconstitutional.”

“Discriminating against colleges, universities, faculty, and students based on race violates the fundamental principle of equal protection under the law,” Blum said in a statement.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Department of Education for comment. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 12:40

PPI Shows Companies Eating Tariff Costs, Bloomberg Finds

Earlier today, when analyzing the latest PPI data, we concluded that - at least so far - it is companies that are eating tariffs costs, not passing them on to consumers. In a subsequent report, Bloomberg agrees. 

Echoing what we said, Bloomberg writes that the details from the PPI report were less benign than the headline number suggests, as "core goods were the main source of price pressures in May, suggesting that companies may be eating some of the added costs from tariffs."

The increase is particularly visible in finished goods, and specifically durable consumer goods. This category just posted its largest increase since 2023.

But while that is bad news for companies, it is good news for consumers. As Bloomberg further explains, the fact that core goods continue to be a source of disinflation in consumer prices but a source of persistent inflation in producer prices hints at pressure on corporate margins. That can also be gleaned simply from the fact that PPI is running higher than CPI, just as we highlighted earlier.

It certainly should explain "why stocks aren’t over the moon with this report", even if it is good news for consumers as it means that, so far, it is corporations (with the benefits of Chinese suppliers) who are footing the cost of Trump's trade war. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 12:20

Trump Says He Won't Fire "Numbskull" Powell, But Demands Rate Cuts

President Trump said he did not plan to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, days after saying he would “soon” pick his nominee - to lead the central bank next, with Polymarket odds suggesting Hassett, Warsh and Bessent are favorites to replace Powell.

“The fake news is saying, ‘Oh, if you fired him, it would be so bad, it would be so bad.’ I don’t know why it would be so bad, but I’m not going to fire him,” Trump said at a White House event on Thursday.

Trump went on to reiterate his complaints that the Fed has not moved quickly enough to cut interest rates, as more evidence emerged of cooling inflation. Powell’s term as chair expires in May 2026.

Trump went on to complain that “we’re going to spend $600 billion a year because of one numbskull that sits here, ‘I don’t see enough reason to cut the rates now.’… Cut your rates now, there’s no inflation.”

President Trump calls Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a "numskull" for not lowering interest rates but says he won't fire him. pic.twitter.com/VwydtLM673

— CSPAN (@cspan) June 12, 2025

“We call him ‘Too Late,’ right?” Trump said, adding he was frustrated that the current rates were increasing the federal government’s borrowing costs. The president said the Fed could always increase rates if inflation returned.

“Let’s say there was inflation. In a year from now, raise your rates. I don’t mind, raise your rates. I’m all for it. I’ll be the one to be calling you,” Trump said. “He’ll be too late for that too.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 12:17

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $169.3 trillion during the first quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $2.3 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  
Net worth decreased $1.6 trillion in Q1.  As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q1 and is below the peak in 2021.
This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q1 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 72.0% - down from 72.2% in Q4, 2024

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in Q1.

Mortgage debt is up $2.78 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.8% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q1 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

Appropriations Process In Disarray As House Moves to Slash $9 Billion In Federal Programs

The House is expected to vote Thursday on a sweeping $9 billion-plus rescissions package that would slash foreign aid and cut $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which funds NPR and PBS, even as deeper dysfunction in the congressional appropriations process threatens another government shutdown this fall.

Sen John Kennedy (photo: Eric Lee / Bloomberg)

The legislation, drafted by the White House and backed by Republican leadership, is likely to pass despite resistance from some GOP moderates and unified Democratic opposition.

The vote arrives amid growing uncertainty over the fiscal year 2026 spending process. With little progress in either chamber on the 12 annual appropriations bills, lawmakers are increasingly resigned to the likelihood of another continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open past September, Punchbowl News reports.

"If I were betting man right now, given the current environment, we will appropriate money by CR for the foreseeable future," said Senator John Kennedy (R-LA), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. "So if you have a chance to change from the Approps Committee to Finance, you probably ought to do it."

The House Appropriations Committee is expected to complete markup of four spending bills by Friday, all written to match the lower spending levels in former President Donald J. Trump’s budget proposal. The package includes tens of billions in cuts to domestic programs, making it a nonstarter for Democrats and the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Complicating matters further, Senate appropriators have not yet agreed on a topline number for spending. Senators Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and chair of the Appropriations Committee, and Patty Murray, Democrat of Washington and the committee’s ranking member, are not expected to reach a deal until after Republicans pass their reconciliation bill — likely no earlier than July.

“We just don’t know yet,” said Representative Tom Cole (R-OK), chair of the House Appropriations Committee. “Let’s assume we pass the ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’ I don’t think we know what that does. Does that break things loose or not?”

“There’s plenty of people on our side who like a CR,” he added. “It could easily happen again. It’s bad governance.”

The so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” - a Trump-endorsed initiative - includes $175 billion for border security, $150 billion in military spending, and a two-year increase in the debt ceiling. Democrats have rejected the measure, citing deep cuts to domestic programs and the absence of accountability mechanisms on executive spending.

Some Republicans, however, suggest that Trump and his advisers may prefer the flexibility afforded by a CR - or even a government shutdown, particularly if the BBB is signed into law.

"I think there are probably some people in the administration who think quite frankly that they have more flexibility under a CR or even a shutdown," said Representative Ken Calvert (R-CA), chair of the Defense Subcommittee on House Appropriations. "I think that shocks a lot of members here."

Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), warned that repeated use of CRs undermines congressional authority.

"If we do two CRs in a row, it will be a self-inflicted wound by Senate Republican appropriators and Senate Republicans to diminish not just the power of the committee but to diminish Congress’s power of the purse,"  he said.

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), said the effect is to sideline legislative input on federal spending. "Any long-term CR plays into what it seems this administration would like, which is bills with no guardrails," she said.

The underlying tension is a struggle over control of federal spending between Congress and the executive branch. Democrats blame Trump and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought for flouting the 1974 Budget and Impoundment Control Act, which requires presidents to spend money as appropriated by Congress.

Republicans counter that Democrats stalled earlier efforts to reach a compromise, particularly over efforts to restrict Trump’s spending discretion. “You’re not gonna have a Republican Senate and the House limit a Republican president,” said Cole.

The political cost of such battles has already been significant. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy lost his position over a CR. Speaker Mike Johnson vowed early in his tenure to avoid repeating that path, but growing pressure within his conference suggests another short-term funding bill is increasingly likely.

Representative Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, offered a grim assessment.

"To hell with the Congress," she said. "It’s bad for the American people. It’s bad for the American people. They’re lying about what’s in these bills. That’s the tragedy."

Meanwhile, on a lighter note, Republicans defeated Democrats 13–2 in Wednesday night’s Congressional Baseball Game - their fifth straight win. More than 31,000 tickets were sold, raising $2.8 million for charity.

Big Beautiful Bill

Meanwhile, House Republicans have successfully amended their party-line tax and spending package, eliminating policies that would have ruined the Big Beautiful Bill's ability to be passed without a simple majority, and would have been subject to Democrat filibuster.

Among the major items deleted, "$2 billion for Pentagon military intelligence programs and more than $500 million for developing missiles, as well as removing a crackdown on the “employee retention” tax credit that became a magnet for fraudsters during and after the pandemic," according to Politico. 

Republicans are now hoping to rewrite some of these policies tossed by the House and fold them into the Senate's version of the package before their target passage date of July 4th. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 11:00

Energy Regulations Threaten Pennsylvania's Tech Boom

Authored by Elizabeth Stelle via RealClearPennsylvania,

Pennsylvania is on the short list of destinations for cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI). However, the commonwealth – thanks to ill-advised policies pushed by Gov. Josh Shapiro – remains ill-equipped to handle this emerging market.

On Monday, the governor announced a $20 billion investment by Amazon to develop data centers statewide. Though a laudable investment, the governor’s publicity stunt highlights a glaring issue: State policies make it extremely expensive to set up shop in Pennsylvania and tap into the state’s abundant energy resources.

And the governor’s proposals to address this issue will actually make things worse.

Shapiro’s policies to reduce the amount of reliable electricity are the most concerning.

Even without the new influx of data centers, electricity costs are rising in Pennsylvania. On June 1, utility companies increased rates statewide. These companies regularly adjust rates based on market conditions.

And those conditions aren’t great for ratepayers. In this year’s first quarter, wholesale prices in Pennsylvania were up 44%.

What are driving costs? It’s simple supply-and-demand economics. Supply continues to dwindle as regulations force reliable power plants to retire prematurely and force-feed more unreliable solar and wind energy into the state’s energy portfolio.

Meanwhile, demand – driven by AI – keeps escalating.

AI guzzles electricity. A ChatGPT query devours 10 times more electricity than a conventional Google query. To satiate AI’s growing power needs, conservative estimates suggest the United States needs at least 18 gigawatts of additional grid capacity by 2030 – roughly three times the annual consumption of New York City.

Tech companies have already begun to stake claims for increased energy capacity. Case in point: Microsoft’s recent reboot of Three Mile Island. Partnering with Constellation Energy, the tech giant will commandeer the once-shuttered nuclear power plant to power its growing AI capabilities with around-the-clock energy.

And while such deals are great for Big Tech, Pennsylvania households and small businesses remain stuck with ever-increasing electricity bills. Even before the recent rate hike, new polling reveals 78% of Pennsylvanians report increased energy bills over the past two years.

Meanwhile, misguided lawmakers push policies that only exacerbate the problem. For example, Gov. Shapiro’s Lightning Plan – which includes a carbon-tax scheme and mandates more unreliable “green” energy – will add about $157 billion in statewide electricity costs by 2035, according to a new report by Always On Energy and the Commonwealth Foundation. These added costs will double household electricity bills.

So long as these ill-advised policies continue to throttle capacity and generation, the grid will remain a bottleneck to future innovation in Pennsylvania.

To attract new data centers, lawmakers have also flirted with an age-old yet ineffectual solution: corporate welfare. Despite the political appeal, government favors (i.e., tax incentives and subsidies) to attract new businesses often fail.

Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office found that the commonwealth’s tax credits netted a lousy return on investment, about 25 cents on the dollar.

Others have proven useless: The Pennsylvania Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) tax credit, which Shapiro wants to expand. has had no takers since its inception in 2022 – not a single dollar.

The best medicine is regulatory reform. Lawmakers should revise electricity regulations to account for reliability and consider all infrastructure costs associated with electricity generation. Also, energy markets need a more predictable permitting process for energy extraction and power plant construction.

Shapiro alluded to fast-tracking permitting for new data centers. Competing with neighbors like West Virginia, which recently passed a bill allowing “microgrid” districts for data centers with standalone power plants, could be beneficial. But there again, the track record of industry-specific reforms is spotty.

Nearly a year ago, Pennsylvania passed the Streamlining Permits for Economic Expansion and Development (SPEED) program to create an expedited permit review and approval process associated with energy production. Today, SPEED remains under development. Shapiro’s call for expedited permitting for data centers appears to be yet another half-measure that won’t accomplish much.

Pennsylvania can’t afford to stop with just one industry. Regulatory reform must be comprehensive and universal, freeing up all economic sectors from onerous red tape.

Pennsylvania, with more than 160,000 individual regulations and restrictions throttling genuine economic development, is one of the most-regulated states. Research suggests a 36% cut in regulations would yield 1% growth in Pennsylvania’s GDP, according to a report coauthored by the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Commonwealth Foundation.

Before Pennsylvania’s Wyoming Valley can become the next Silicon Valley, the commonwealth must rethink its strategy. Lawmakers must cut red tape, not blank checks to big corporations. Moreover, they must unleash affordable energy, not shackle it with climate-alarmist policies. Without genuine regulatory and energy reform, the commonwealth won’t be able to power the future and will be left in the dark.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 10:40

Picnic Or Not, Rand Paul Reveals The One Thing That Will Secure His Vote For Trump Tax Bill

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) continues to be a prominent holdout against President Donald Trump’s ambitious “Big, Beautiful Bill,” drawing frustration from the White House. However, the Kentucky Republican - who was reportedly disinvited and then reinvited to the annual White House picnic - has indicated he could ultimately support the legislation if a key condition is met: removing the debt ceiling increase from the bill.

In a Tuesday interview with Charlie Kirk, Paul voiced concerns over the federal government’s reliance on omnibus spending bills or continuing resolutions, calling them a “terrible way to run government.” Paul also criticized GOP leadership in both the House and Senate for failing to deliver on promises of fiscal responsibility, accusing them of prioritizing political expediency over conservative principles that they claim to uphold. 

"It's going to be an omnibus or a continuing resolution. It'll be all the bills crammed together. It's a terrible way to run government.But then we would ask them at that point, all right, you promised us you were going to do better. And once again, this isn't an accusation against the president,” Paul told Kirk. "This is an accusation against GOP leadership on both sides.I'm saying, I don't believe them or trust them. So, in three months, we'd get another bite at the apple and we'd say, all right, what have you done? And they would say, oh, we're going to do it next time. And that's what they say."

"Right now, from Speaker Johnson, we hear he's going to be conservative after the 2026 elections. The Senate has made it not just $4 trillion in borrowing, they want to do $5 trillion in borrowing, and they've explicitly told us it's to get through the 2026 elections without talking about the debt,” the senator added. All of these things were conservatives would oppose, but now they, because they support the president so much, they're willing to look the other way. I like the president. I like him personally.”

Paul then took aim at the recurring pattern of massive, last-minute spending bills that combine multiple legislative priorities into a single package. “It’s all the bills crammed together,” he said, arguing that this approach lacks transparency and accountability. He expressed frustration with Republican leaders who, he claims, repeatedly defer meaningful reforms with vague promises of action after future elections. “Right now, from Speaker Johnson, we hear he’s going to be conservative after the 2026 elections,” Paul remarked skeptically.

"I was his biggest defender against two impeachments. We'll do it again. I've supported his nominees, but I'm just not going to go against all principle to support $5 trillion in borrowing because I don't know who we would be or where we would be of a movement if nobody opposes this,” Paul said. "I've told them I will vote for the bill. Separate out the debt ceiling so I don't have to give up all of my principles and I'll vote for the bill."

Despite Paul's opposition, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) remains optimistic that Congress can pass the sweeping bill by July 4, despite ongoing challenges in the Senate. “We certainly hope, I believe, we can still meet that,” Johnson told reporters Monday. “It’s up to the Senate, the bill’s in the Senate’s hands now. But I spoke with Leader Thune as recently as last night, he’s feeling very optimistic.”

“I think it’s gonna go pretty quickly,” Trump added. 

Meanwhile as noted above, Rand accused the White House of "immaturity" and "petty vindictiveness" on Wednesday after he and his family were disinvited from the annual White House picnic held with members of both parties.

"The level of immaturity is beyond words," said Paul, adding that he's "lost a lot of respect" for Trump.

"It’s just incredibly petty," he told CNN Wednesday evening. "I’m arguing from a true belief and worry that our country is mired in debt and getting worse. And they choose to react by uninviting my grandson to the picnic. I don’t know. I just think it really makes me lose a lot of respect I once had for Donald Trump."

Paul: “I like Donald Trump, but when they want to act this way, it's where they begin to lose a lot of America who just wonders, ‘Why does everything have to descend to this level?’”

Also takes a whack at Stephen Miller for “casually talking about getting rid of habeas corpus” pic.twitter.com/0ojRjYIIV9

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) June 12, 2025

On Thursday, however, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Of course Senator Rand Paul and his beautiful wife and family are invited to the BIG White House Party tonight. He’s the toughest vote in the history of the U.S. Senate, but why wouldn’t he be?"

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 10:20

RFK Jr. Announces New Members Of Vaccine Advisory Panel

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has chosen eight new members for the panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on vaccines.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 14, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The new members of the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) include Dr. Joseph Hibbeln, a psychiatrist and neuroscientist who is acting chief of the Section on Nutritional Neurosciences at the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent messenger ribonucleic acid technology; and Dr. Cody Meissner, a pediatrics professor at Dartmouth College and former ACIP member, Kennedy announced on June 11.

“All of these individuals are committed to evidence-based medicine, gold-standard science, and common sense. They have each committed to demanding definitive safety and efficacy data before making any new vaccine recommendations,” he said in a statement.

Malone said on social media platform X that he was honored to be named to the committee. “I will do my best to serve with unbiased objectivity and rigor,” he wrote.

The other new members are:

• Dr. Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist and biostatistician who helped found Hillsdale College’s Academy for Science and Freedom.
• Retsef Levi, a professor of operations management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management who holds a PhD in operations research.
• Dr. James Pagano, an emergency medicine doctor.
• Vicky Pebsworth, who holds a PhD in public health and nursing, and is a regional director of the National Association of Catholic Nurses.
• Dr. Michael Ross, a clinical professor of obstetrics and gynecology at George Washington University and Virginia Commonwealth University.

Levi told The Epoch Times that while he believes the outgoing ACIP panelists “applied their best judgment and did it with the very best of intentions and based on very deep expertise,” the secretary’s reforms are based on “a broader sentiment that the process by which we evaluate the safety and benefits of drugs, and specifically vaccines, can be improved and can be more transparent and also more trustworthy by the public.”

He added that he views the role of ACIP members as “giving advice based on their best judgment.”

“The advice might not be uniform, the advice might be nuanced and might be diverse. And then there are decision-makers and policy-makers that take the responsibility, and they will have to make their best judgment based on the opinions that they hear and the data that they see—they will have to make decisions,” he said.

“I think that scientists should stay in the role of analyzing the science and reflecting what the science suggests. And the same scientists should not be the decision-makers.”

Having worked with academics, clinicians, and patients in the health care system across his career, Levi said he hopes to bring his experience with data-driven frameworks for balancing “different types of risks and different types of benefits.”

He said that modern advances should now allow for “the aspect of personalization” in medicine.

“We want to think about those risks and benefits in the personalized context of individual patients or groups of patients that may have different characteristics, different desires, different wishes, different cultures,” Levi said. “And we really want to think about it in a way that will allow them to make the best choices for their own health, together with their physicians.”

Kennedy heads the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency. The department on June 9 notified the 17 previous members of their dismissals.

“The Committee will no longer function as a rubber stamp for industry profit-taking agendas,” Kennedy said in a statement at the time.

The ACIP is a panel convened by the CDC to offer advice about vaccines, including childhood and adult immunization schedules.

Members “are knowledgeable in the fields of immunization practices and public health, have expertise in the use of vaccines and other immunobiologic agents in clinical practice or preventive medicine, have expertise with clinical or laboratory vaccine research, or have expertise in assessment of vaccine efficacy and safety,” according to the committee’s charter.

Kennedy told reporters in Washington this week that the new members would be credentialed scientists and doctors “who are going to do evidence-based medicine, who are going to be objective, and who are going to follow the science and make critical public health determinations for our children based upon the best science.”

Some Members Were Paid by Pharmaceutical Companies

Eight of the members whom Kennedy fired had been paid by pharmaceutical companies in the past, according to an Epoch Times review of disclosures and payment information.

Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, for instance, whose term started in 2024, received $4.6 million in research funding from Pfizer and $39,547 in payments from Pfizer and Merck in recent years. Her conflict of interest disclosures stated that she worked on clinical trials for Pfizer’s meningococcal, COVID-19, and RSV vaccines and that she abstained from related votes.

Other previous members received thousands of dollars from Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Valneva, Merck, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, and Boehringer Ingelheim.

Most of the funding, but not all, came before the members joined the panel. Dr. Helen Keipp Talbot’s term started in 2018, and she reported receiving $7,500 in research funding and $4,662 in payments from Sanofi in 2019.

An email to Talbot returned an automated message directing requests for comment to a spokesman for Vanderbilt University Medical Center, her employer. The spokesman did not return an inquiry.

Kennedy has criticized members over their ties to pharmaceutical companies.

“The committee has been plagued with persistent conflicts of interest and has become little more than a rubber stamp for any vaccine. It has never recommended against a vaccine—even those later withdrawn for safety reasons,” he wrote in an op-ed.

The Department of Health also noted that all 17 members were appointed or had their terms renewed during the Biden administration, and that many were set to serve until 2027 or 2028. Keeping them in place would have meant that the Trump administration could appoint only a minority of members until then, limiting its ability “to take the proper actions to restore public trust in vaccines,” the department said in a statement.

Of the new members, Pagano reported receiving about $4,600 from pharmaceutical companies in recent years; Hibbeln reported receiving $338, including from AbbVie; and Meissner received less than $150 from Sanofi and another firm.

Criticism and Praise

Some doctors and health groups voiced opposition to the terminations.

The move, along with the recent narrowing of COVID-19 vaccine recommendations, “interferes with the practice of evidence-based medicine and destabilizes a trusted source and its evidence-based process for helping guide decision-making for vaccines to protect the public health in our country,” Dr. Jason Goldman, president of the American College of Physicians and the college’s liaison to the advisory committee, said in a statement.

“The decision to suddenly remove all 17 members of the CDC independent advisory committee in one sweeping move is deeply damaging to confidence in vaccines that have proven to be safe for decades and in the healthcare providers who counsel patients and their families about immunization decisions every day,” Jason Prevelige, president and chair of the board of directors of the American Academy of Physician Associates, stated.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chairman of the Senate Health Committee, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the top minority member of the panel, also expressed concern about the move.

Others praised the dismissals, including Mary Holland, CEO of Children’s Health Defense, a group that Kennedy chaired before he became health secretary.

“The committee has been riddled with financial conflicts of interest, through research grants, stock portfolios, and patent stakes,” Holland said in a statement. “This change is critical if this committee is to have any future role in advising on vaccines without bias.”

Jan Jekielek contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 10:00

Micron To Invest $200 Billion In America To "Reinforce" Global Chip Dominance

Micron Technology announced massive plans to expand its U.S. investments to $200 billion—allocating $150 billion toward domestic memory manufacturing and $50 billion to R&D—across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The move aligns with President Trump's "Make America Great Again" vision, as big tech firms ramp up investments to build data centers and reshore supply chains in preparation for what some expect to be a volatile geopolitical climate in the 2030s, with the world increasingly splintering into a bipolar state. 

The $200 billion investment to strengthen America's semiconductor industry will help to solidify U.S. technological leadership over China and create tens of thousands of jobs, revitalizing the Heartland after decades of de-industrialization driven by disastrous globalist policies by Washington elites.

Here's a breakdown of Micron's expansion—crucial to powering America's AI industry:

• Two cutting-edge DRAM fabs in Idaho, including a newly announced second fab.

• Four planned fabs in New York, pending environmental reviews.

• Modernization and expansion of the Virginia fab, supported by $275 million in CHIPS Act funding.

• Advanced High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) packaging capabilities, to be developed domestically.

"This approximately $200 billion investment will reinforce America's technological leadership, create tens of thousands of American jobs across the semiconductor ecosystem and secure a domestic supply of semiconductors—critical to economic and national security," Micron Chairman, President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra wrote in a statement, adding, "We are grateful for the support from President Trump, Secretary Lutnick and our federal, state and local partners who have been instrumental in advancing domestic semiconductor manufacturing." 

The expansion will enable Micron to produce roughly 40% of its DRAM in the U.S., creating an estimated 90,000 jobs. President Trump's broader push to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the Heartland is supported by up to $6.4 billion in CHIPS Act funding and anticipated eligibility for the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit (AMIC).

America's top tech CEOs react to the Micron news:

Satya Nadella, Chairman and CEO, Microsoft:

"Strengthening semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. will drive new innovation, create high-skilled jobs, and further American competitiveness. We applaud Micron Technology and the Trump Administration on this critical initiative to advance the country's leadership in this vital industry."

Jensen Huang, Founder and CEO, NVIDIA:

"Micron's investment in advanced memory manufacturing and HBM capabilities in the U.S., with support from Trump Administration, is an important step forward for the AI ecosystem. Micron's leadership in high-performance memory is invaluable to enabling the next generation of AI breakthroughs that NVIDIA is driving. We're excited to collaborate with Micron as we push the boundaries of what's possible in AI and high-performance computing."

Tim Cook, CEO, Apple:

"At Apple, we're proud to work with suppliers in all 50 states — including Micron, whose technology helps power the products our users rely on every day. This new commitment is another great example of American manufacturing leadership, and we look forward to building on our work together."

Michael Dell, Chairman and CEO, Dell Technologies:

"Micron's commitment to expanding U.S. memory production marks a pivotal moment for the technology industry. As a long-time strategic partner, we collaborate with Micron to develop infrastructure solutions that power AI and general-purpose computing. This investment strengthens the availability of secure, scalable and sustainable memory solutions critical to driving innovation and progress across industries."

Matt Garman, CEO, AWS:

"Micron's investment in expanding memory manufacturing and advanced packaging in the U.S. is a significant milestone for the semiconductor industry. At AWS, we are building the infrastructure that is powering the next generation of generative AI and high-performance computing, and memory is a critical enabler of that mission. Micron's expansion further strengthens the domestic supply chain for key semiconductor technologies as we continue to deliver products with the performance, scale, security, sustainability, and quality that our customers demand."

Dr. Lisa Su, Chair and CEO, AMD:

"Micron's investment to expand its U.S. presence is both timely and strategically important. Strengthening the domestic semiconductor supply chain is critical as we accelerate innovation in AI and high-performance computing. At AMD, we value our long-standing partnership with Micron and their continued leadership in memory technology, which plays a vital role in enabling our high-performance, energy-efficient computing solutions."

Cristiano Amon, President and CEO, Qualcomm Incorporated:

"Micron's investment in U.S.-based memory manufacturing is a significant milestone for the semiconductor industry. As a key technology player and longstanding partner, we value Micron's commitment to strengthening the domestic semiconductor supply chain, which is crucial for our supply chain resilience and diversification. This vital investment not only supports American innovation across a wide range of industries including automotive, and beyond, but also, ensures that critical technologies are securely and reliably available. We are proud to support this initiative, which enables the growth and sustainability of U.S. manufacturing."

To support the growth of the U.S. semiconductor industry, Micron has committed over $325 million to develop the next-generation workforce and strengthen communities across Idaho, New York and Virginia. This investment includes semiconductor curriculum development, community college partnerships for apprenticeships, university partnerships and other programs aimed at expanding access to semiconductor careers. These ongoing efforts will be critical to building a robust talent pipeline that will support Micron's long-term and U.S. technology leadership.

Add Micron to the growing list of big tech investments pouring into the U.S., from advanced manufacturing to data centers, as America's industrial and digital backbone is being rebuilt and shored up ahead of the 2030s.

Important reads:

• UBS Identifies Start Of Trump-Era Construction Boom In AI, Grid; Goldman Sees Upside In Used Machinery Prices

• Goldman's China Tech Tour Underscores One Message: America Must Reclaim These Supply Chains By 2030

. . .

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 09:40

"Here Come The Layoffs"; Jobless Claims Rise To 8 Month High As Continuing Claims Unexpectedly Soar

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time jumped to 247k last week (above the 239k expected) - the highest since October 2024...

A breakdown of weekly claims changes finds widespread increase in weekly claims filings, with the biggest increases in California, Minnesota and Pennsylvania,, and the biggest drops in Kentucky and North Dakota.

Commenting on the result, Southbay Research writes, "here come the layoffs" and notes that "if you expected white collar layoffs in IT, Healthcare/Pharma, and DEI, these States would probably show it", to wit:

• California: +9K Initial Claims, +31K Continuing Claims
• Massachusetts: +2K, +8K
• New York: +2K, +4K
• Washington: +0.5, +4K

Continuing claims not only remained above the 1.9 million Americans level for the third week in a row, but unexpectedly spiked to the highest level since November 2021, at 1.956 million, well above the 1.190 million expected...

...with the DOGE-inspired 'Deep Tristate' region seeing claims surge to their highest since Dec 2021

Commenting on the report, Bloomberg's economists write that while initial jobless claims remained elevated in early June, but only slightly higher than in the corresponding week last year, it was the "surge in continuing claims points to further downward pressure on the labor market, with newly unemployed workers struggling to find new jobs."

Employers are cautious about growth prospects, leading to relatively a weak hiring rate and making it difficulty for those who lose jobs to find new ones.

So yes, the layoffs are coming, and meanwhile despite Musk's obvious disappointment at the One Big Beautiful Bill's lack of spending cuts, he can be proud that he did his part to shrink the workforce of the leviathan.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 09:25

Core Producer Price Growth Slides To Lowest Since August As Companies Eat Tariff Costs

Following another month of cooler than expected CPI, US Producer Prices followed and printed well below expectations in May (if not quite the plunge observed last month), rising only 0.1%, below the +0.2% MoM exp (but we note that just like March's 0.4% MoM decline was revised up to unchanged, so May's -0.5% drop has been also revised higher to -0.2%). Meanwhile, the headline print posted a modest increase, rising from an upward revised 2.5% in April (from 2.4%) to 2.6% in May.

But while headline PPI posted a modest annual increase, core PPI continued to slide, rising just 3.0% in May, the lowest since August 2024 (below the 3.1% estimate), down from an upward revised 3.2% in May, as a result of a 0.1% monthly increase in core PPI, which also missed expectations of a 0.3% increase.

Looking at the PPI components that matter for PCE calculation, airline passenger services contracted another 1.1% m/m in May, after a 1.8% decline in April. Portfolio management contracted 1% after a 7.1% decline in April. Home health and hospice care flat, and hospital outpatient care contracted 0.3% m/m in April.

Under the hood, prices for final demand services rebounded 0.1% in May, reversing the 0.7% plunge in April which was the largest (pre-revision) decline since the index began in December 2009, driven by portfolio management services. 

Taking a closer look at the components:

• The index for final demand services inched up 0.1% in May following a 0.4% decrease in April. The advance was attributable to a 0.4% rise in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services declined 0.2 percent, while the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing was unchanged.
  • Product detail: Leading the increase in prices for final demand services in May, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling jumped 2.9 percent. The indexes for traveler accommodation services; apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing; alcohol retailing; and system software publishing also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services fell 1.1 percent. The indexes for furniture retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services; and portfolio management also decreased. 
     
• Prices for final demand goods rose 0.2% in May after edging up 0.1% in April. Over 80% of the May advance can be traced to the index for final demand goods less foods and energy, which climbed 0.2%. Prices for final demand foods increased 0.1%, while the index for final demand energy was unchanged.
  • Product detail: Within the index for final demand goods in May, prices for tobacco products rose 0.9 percent. The indexes for gasoline, processed poultry, roasted coffee, residential natural gas, and oilseeds also increased. In contrast, prices for jet fuel declined 8.2 percent. The indexes for pork and for carbon steel scrap also fell. 

Margin pressure remains on American corporations, which confirms that companies are eating tariff costs.

In other words, despite all the FUD, companies are soaking up any tariff price increases and NOT passing them on to customers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 08:45

House Strips Reconciliation-Ineligible Provisions From 'Big Beautiful Bill' In Procedural Vote

The House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a procedural resolution to strip provisions out of the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill act that would make it ineligible for a filibuster-proof vote in the Senate. Why they were in there is anyone's guess. 

The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on May 22, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The resolution passed in a 213–207 vote along party lines, which changes the vote without requiring yet another vote on the full package.

The most notable change was the removal of a planned crackdown on the "employee retention tax," which Republicans were eyeballing as a source of more than $6 billion in savings. They also scrapped $2 billion in funding for DoD intelligence programs and approximately $500 million set aside for missile development. 

As The Epoch Times notes further, the changes to the mammoth tax and spending bill were included as part of a vote on another rule that would allow leadership to bring a vote on a $9.4 billion rescissions package on June 12.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was critical of the approach, writing in a post on X that the rule “changes the text of [the One Big Beautiful Bill Act] after it already passed the House. Sneaky!”

The approach may have headed off a more intense showdown between House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who was looking to force greater changes to the bill, and members in the Republican conference, as some were dissatisfied about aspects of the original legislation passed by the House for its lack of serious cuts to spending.

The changes seek to align the bill with the rules of the reconciliation process in the Senate, where the Byrd Rule places significant limits on what can and can’t be included in a reconciliation bill. The rule was adopted in 1985 to limit the ability of either party to use reconciliation bills, which aren’t subject to a filibuster, for simple policy ends.

Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth McDonough, who enforces the upper chamber’s rules, said the provisions stripped from the bill were flagged as problematic.

Had they not been nixed from the bill, it would have been declared ineligible for passage without a filibuster vote, which would have required that Republicans get Democrats’ help to pass the legislation.

Some Democrats urged Republicans ahead of the vote to use it as an opportunity to stall progress on the bill.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) acknowledged that most of the changes to the tax bill were technical corrections but he said the vote also gave Republicans who have expressed concern about the bill a chance to stop it.

“Now you have a second chance to actually stop this one big, ugly bill and the provisions you disagree with,” Jeffries said.

House Rules Committee Ranking Member Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) also urged Republicans to reject the changes in a June 10 letter.

He specifically cited prohibitions on the bill against regulation of artificial intelligence by states for ten years, provisions restricting federal judiciary contempt orders, the termination of Inflation Reduction Act energy tax credits, its impact on the national debt, and the eligibility requirements for able-bodied adults who receive Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 08:45

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

TikTok's Most Popular Star Khaby Lame Leaves US After Being Detained By ICE

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

TikTok star Khaby Lame has voluntarily left the United States after being detained by immigration agents in Nevada for allegedly overstaying his visa, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has said.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents detained the 25-year-old Senegalese Italian influencer, whose legal name is Seringe Khabane Lame, on June 6 at the Harry Reid International Airport near Las Vegas, a Senior DHS official confirmed in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.

“Lame was granted voluntary departure June 6 and has since self-deported the U.S.,” the official said.

Voluntary departure allows individuals facing removal from the United States to leave at their own expense, avoiding a deportation order on their immigration record, which could otherwise bar them from reentering the country for up to a decade.

Lame arrived in the United States on April 30, an ICE spokesperson said.

Lame, a citizen of Italy, is the world’s most popular TikTok personality, with about 162 million followers on the Chinese-owned app. He rose to international fame during the COVID-19 pandemic with videos that show him silently reacting to complicated life hacks.

He moved from his native Senegal to Italy as an infant but was not granted citizenship until 2022 because of strict Italian citizenship laws.

Lame told The Associated Press that before finding fame on TikTok, his family had been poor but happy.

Nowadays, “it’s another reality, it’s completely another world,” he said, adding that he was still not used to life in the spotlight but was gradually adapting.

Lame is also a UNICEF goodwill ambassador. He has not publicly commented on his detainment in Las Vegas.

The Epoch Times reached out to Lame for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Lame’s detainment and voluntary departure from the United States come as protests continue across the country in response to ICE operations.

Demonstrations initially broke out in Los Angeles on June 6 in response to ICE operations targeting illegal immigrants but have since spread to more cities, including Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Washington, and Chicago.

In some locations, protestors clashed with law enforcement officials and were arrested.

Trump has deployed 4,000 members of the National Guard and hundreds of Marines to the Los Angeles area to quell the demonstrations, invoking his authority under Title 10 of the U.S. Code, which allows him to deploy National Guard units into federal service if the United States is invaded, there is a “rebellion or danger of rebellion,” or the president is “unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States.”

The move marked the first time in decades that a state’s National Guard was activated without a request from its governor, and prompted condemnation from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who described it as “unprecedented” and said it “threatens the very core of our democracy.”

Newsom asked a federal court on June 10 to block Trump from deploying federal troops in his city, but a judge denied the request.

Trump defended his actions in a post on Truth Social.

“If our troops didn’t go into Los Angeles, it would be burning to the ground right now, just like so much of their housing burned to the ground,” he said. “The great people of Los Angeles are very lucky that I made the decision to go in and help!!!”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 07:20

This Is The Salary Needed To Buy A Home In 50 US Cities

Since 2017, the salary needed to buy a home in America has more than doubled.

Fueled by rising unaffordability and high mortgage rates, home buyers need to shell out $2,500 on average for monthly payments. Meanwhile, this soars past $5,000 in coastal cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the salary you need to afford a home in 50 U.S. cities, based on data from Home Sweet Home.

What is the Salary Needed to Buy a Home in 2025?

Here is the income it takes to afford a median-priced home in 2025 across major cities:

Note: These calculations determine the salary needed to afford the principal, interest, taxes, and insurance payments on a median-priced home in the corresponding metro area as of Q1 2025. Figures reflect homes with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of 6.83% and a 20% down payment.

Metro Area Salary Needed Median Home Price Monthly Payment San Jose $501,760 $2,020,000 $11,708 San Francisco $338,427 $1,320,000 $7,897 San Diego $257,190 $1,036,500 $6,001 Los Angeles $218,483 $862,600 $5,098 New York City $202,150 $725,300 $4,717 Seattle $198,233 $772,900 $4,625 Boston $194,593 $734,000 $4,541 Washington, D.C. $166,814 $630,900 $3,892 Miami $165,818 $643,900 $3,869 Denver $161,935 $647,800 $3,778 Riverside/San Bernardino $155,109 $609,200 $3,619 Portland $151,963 $591,200 $3,546 Sacramento $144,791 $550,000 $3,378 Salt Lake City $138,012 $556,500 $3,220 Austin $136,845 $465,100 $3,193 Providence $135,721 $492,700 $3,167 Phoenix $119,546 $487,900 $2,789 Las Vegas $119,242 $486,400 $2,782 Orlando $117,731 $445,000 $2,747 Hartford $113,491 $378,300 $2,648 Raleigh $113,466 $443,900 $2,648 Dallas $113,069 $377,900 $2,638 Richmond $112,951 $446,300 $2,636 Chicago $110,038 $371,500 $2,568 National $108,486 $402,300 $2,531 Baltimore $106,969 $393,000 $2,496 Tampa $106,903 $400,000 $2,494 Minneapolis $106,442 $388,100 $2,484 Nashville $105,831 $417,600 $2,469 Milwaukee $105,477 $388,100 $2,461 Philadelphia $105,118 $363,000 $2,453 Jacksonville $104,718 $390,000 $2,443 Charlotte $104,324 $411,200 $2,434 Houston $100,142 $337,400 $2,337 Atlanta $98,232 $369,400 $2,292 Virginia Beach $92,269 $350,200 $2,153 San Antonio $90,393 $300,000 $2,109 Columbus $89,131 $321,800 $2,080 Kansas City $88,913 $328,700 $2,075 Indianapolis $81,918 $316,200 $1,911 Birmingham $80,084 $312,800 $1,869 Cincinnati $79,540 $293,900 $1,856 New Orleans $78,572 $291,000 $1,833 Buffalo $76,156 $245,900 $1,777 Louisville $73,844 $278,100 $1,723 St Louis $73,581 $262,100 $1,717 Memphis $73,302 $276,100 $1,710 Oklahoma City $73,052 $258,800 $1,705 Detroit $72,296 $254,200 $1,687 Pittsburgh $64,071 $225,400 $1,495 Cleveland $63,611 $213,200 $1,484

Known for its competitive housing market, San Jose ranks at the top, where buyers need to earn $501,760 to buy a home.

Driven by limited supply and high demand from tech workers, a median-priced home is over $2 million. Notably, in April 2025, 71% of listings sold above their asking price. Sitting in the heart of Silicon Valley, San Jose is home to more than 6,600 tech companies.

Similarly, the AI boom is driving overbidding and sales volumes in San Francisco. In the first quarter of 2024, the median home price stood at $1.3 million, requiring a salary of $338,427 to afford a home—more than three times the national average.

Meanwhile, Miami falls in ninth place as home prices have surged given migration inflows spurred by the pandemic. Today, buying a home in Miami requires a salary of $165,818. For perspective, this jumped from about $70,000 since Q1 2017.

By contrast, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Detroit offer the greatest affordability, where homes cost at least a third less than the national average and require under $73,000 in income to purchase.

To learn more about this topic from an affordability perspective, check out this graphic on the most affordable cities to buy a home.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 06:55

Is Gold Peaking, Or Just Warming Up?

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

Are we approaching a peak in the price of gold?

According to several mainstream economists, we are indeed.

But, they’re DEAD wrong and today I’ll show you why.

See, their argument relies on the inflation-adjusted price of gold.

In January of 1980, the price of gold reached a local peak near $850 per ounce.

According to official U.S. inflation statistics, $850 in January of 1980 would be equivalent to $3,504 today.

In the 45 years since then, gold has increased in value by nearly 300% to $3,346. That’s getting close to the “official” inflation-adjusted 1980 price of $3,504. So are we nearing an inflation-adjusted “peak gold” price?

Nope. In today’s letter, we’ll debunk this common claim.

But first, let’s set a foundation for our argument.

Since 1980 America’s monetary base has increased from $156 billion to more than $5.7 trillion. That’s a 3,533% increase.

Additionally, in 1980 the U.S. government had about $845 billion in debt. Today it’s over $36 trillion, a whopping 4,160% higher.

Furthermore, in 1980 America’s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 35%. Today it’s 124%.

So no, we aren’t approaching a peak in the price of gold. Not even close.

Bogus Inflation Stats

Anyone who has studied the way official inflation is calculated knows it’s suspicious (at best).

As an example, the average car in America in 1980 cost about $7,200. In 2023 that number increased to $48,000, an increase of 566%.

But according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the official source of inflation data in the U.S., the price of a car has only increased about 100% since 1980.

Hmmm, the price has increased 566% but the BLS says it has only doubled. What explains the difference?

Welcome to the wonderful world of “hedonic adjustments”. Because car technology has improved over time, the BLS says we aren’t actually paying 566% more for our cars. It’s a better product, so they say we are effectively only paying 100% more.

Despite the fact that the price of an average car has increased 566%, because it’s a better product (on paper), the BLS cooks the books and pretends things are cheaper than they actually are.

This is the twisted world of inflation statistics. Governments always attempt to downplay inflation. To acknowledge reality would be admitting wrongdoing, and most governments will have no part of that.

Based on this, we can safely say that the official inflation-adjusted 1980 high in gold of $3,504 is also bogus. As we discussed in Silver’s 3x Upside, the true inflation-adjusted high of gold may be $13,000 or more.

An Ongoing Disaster

When gold haters try to call a top, they often act as if our country’s financial situation has stabilized.

Sure, we had a little bout of inflation, but it’s all over now and everything’s fine.

Wrong. America’s debt and deficits are soaring higher. This is despite a booming stock market and relatively low unemployment. When the next recession hits, deficits could easily double.

And disturbingly, the American consumer is close to being tapped out. When the multi-decade spending spree ends, the economy will collapse like a house of cards. Money will be printed at unprecedented levels and stimulus checks will flow like a whitewater rapid.

Over the medium term, we might even see Universal Basic Income (UBI) rolled out in America. AI is set to disrupt the white collar workforce, and there’s a good chance that eventually some sort of UBI is attempted. Of course, this would only worsen the situation. More money printing, less economic incentives. But that doesn’t mean politicians won’t try it.

Over the longer run, AI is going to do wonders for world productivity. And the market will find new ways to keep the workforce busy. But first we have to experience the disruption period, which is going to add additional chaos to an already volatile era.

So no, now is not a time to take profits in gold and silver. It’s time to load up on the dips, if you’re able. This trend is just picking up speed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 06:30

US On High Alert In Anticipation Of Potential Israeli Strike On Iran, WaPo Reports

Is something brewing amid US-Iran tensions, given the stalled nuclear negotiations and ratcheting accusations, demands, and counter-demands? 

The State Department has ordered all embassies within striking distance of Iranian assets - including missions in the Middle East but also Eastern Europe and Northern Africa - to convene emergency action committees (EACs) and send cables back to Washington about measures to mitigate risks. The Associated Press also adds that the US Embassy in Baghdad is preparing to order all nonessential personnel to leave due to potential regional unrest. 

“We are constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies,” said a State Department official who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. “Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq.”

Meanwhile the WaPo - a conduit for the deep state - writes that "the United States is on high alert in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, with the State Department authorizing the evacuation of some personnel in Iraq and the Pentagon green-lighting the departure of military family members across the Middle East."

The heightened security environment comes as President Donald Trump expresses dimming hopes of achieving a deal with Iran that would restrict its nuclear program and forestall a potentially cataclysmal new military confrontation in the Middle East.

“I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,” Trump told the New York Post.

In recent months, U.S. intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned that Israel may choose to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the consent of the United States. Such a move would almost certainly scuttle the Trump administration’s delicate nuclear negotiations and prompt an Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets in the region.

As GMI summarizes the latest situation: 

• The IDF have elevated their operational readiness. In response, the United States has mirrored this posture, anticipating potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
• A senior diplomat, speaking to the Washington Post, stated: “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
• The U.S. State Department has directed all embassies within Iranian strike range—including several in Europe, to immediately convene Emergency Action Committees and transmit updated risk assessments to Washington.
• The Trump imposed deadline on Iranian nuclear negotiations expires tomorrow, June 12th. U.S. officials speaking to Axios now assess it is increasingly unlikely the sixth round of talks in Oman will proceed as scheduled on Sunday.
• General Kurilla, Commander of U.S. Central Command, has postponed his scheduled testimony before Congress due to mounting tensions across the Middle East.

U.S. Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the region, is working in close coordination with State Department counterparts and allies to maintain a constant state of readiness to support numerous missions at any time, the official added.

“We are watching and worried,” said one senior diplomat in the region. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”

Both oil and gold prices spiked on the alarming headlines which suggest new regional conflict could be imminent, with  Israel poised to act...

Gold gaining...

Meanwhile, Iran has urged the United States to prioritize a negotiated solution, with its mission to the United Nations saying that “diplomacy — not militarism — is the only path forward.”

“Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, and U.S. militarism only fuels instability,” the Iranian mission warned in a social media statement. 

All eyes on the Middle East as the U.S. embassy in Baghdad is on high alert preparing for an immediate evacuation.

No updates on the U.S. embassy Baghdad X page yet. pic.twitter.com/uIzQAzwNPo

— Diliman Abdulkader (@D_abdulkader) June 11, 2025

President Trump has definitely expressed his preference for negotiated solution, but Iran insists that it be able to keep enriching uranium, at least at low levels, as a matter of national sovereignty. 

Iran and the United States are tentatively scheduled to hold a sixth round of direct talks in Oman on Sunday between U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with discussions between their technical teams. But people familiar with the planning said Wednesday that it is possible that talks may not happen.

Trump has described the negotiations, which began in April, as heading in a positive direction and has said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any military plans. But on Wednesday, Trump said he was “less confident” that Iran would agree to U.S. demands that it completely shut down its nuclear enrichment program.

“They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame,” he said. He has frequently said that Iran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and threatened military action if an agreement is not reached.

In a post on X Wednesday, Araghchi said that Trump’s demand that Iran not develop a nuclear weapon “is actually in line with our own doctrine and could become the main foundation for a deal. … It is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program is within reach — and could be achieved rapidly,” he said.

Although Witkoff indicated early in the negotiations that some kind of compromise could be reached allowing Iran to continue producing a small quantity of low-level enriched uranium for civil purposes, the administration has since rejected that possibility.

The escalating tension comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors is meeting in Vienna, where Director General Rafael Grossi reported Tuesday that Iran has dramatically increased the amount of near weapons-grade material it possesses.

In a contentious meeting Wednesday, Iran’s envoy to the agency, Reza Najafi, charged the Europeans with violating the decade-old agreement, which technically still remains in effect, claiming they failed to lift all of their own sanctions when the original deal was struck.

In a separate post Wednesday, Araghchi said that “instead of displaying remorse or a desire to facilitate diplomacy,” the Europeans were “promoting confrontation through the absurd demand that Iran must be punished for exercising its right” under the agreement “to respond to non-performance by counterparts.”

If the IAEA governors proceed with plans to vote on a resolution against Iran at the end of their week-long meeting Friday, Araghchi said, Iran will “react STRONGLY. Blame will lie solely and FULLY with malign actors who shatter their own relevance.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 06:25

Nearly All Abrams Tanks The US Gave Ukraine Have Been Destroyed Or Disabled

Russian media outlet RIA Novosti has cited a study which says the majority of the 31 US-supplied M1 Abrams tanks delivered to Ukraine have been destroyed. 

The tanks, which were authorized for transfer under President Biden, have all been destroyed or damaged with the exception of a mere five. These remaining tanks were then reportedly pulled from the front lines given Ukrainian commanders' fears they are too vulnerable to superior Russian airpower.

Ukrainian Army M1A1 Abrams Tank during first frontline operations in February 2024. Source: Russian military

The claim that 26 have been destroyed since they entered the battlefield seems plausible, and consistent with an April 2024 Associated Press report which confirmed at the time, "Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack," citing two US military officials.

And here's what a Ukraine war monitor published in December 2024:

Ukraine has lost at least 17 Abrams, according to the Oryx open-source tracking group. Of those, at least eight were destroyed, one damaged, seven damaged and abandoned and one captured. The actual figures are likely higher in reality because Oryx only tabulates losses for which it has visual confirmation.

Given that a year-and-a-half has passed since that prior report, it is certainly easy to consider that at least nine more tanks were disabled or destroyed in that time period.

War-related social media posts have circulated several videos which purport to show Abrams tanks being targeted from the air and blown up...

Russian telegram channels posted videos of fiber optic cable FPV strikes on a Ukrainian Abrams tank in Kursk oblast last week. Aside from a concussion, the crew survived without injury and made it back to friendly lines. @KofmanMichael and I spoke to the commander of the tank… pic.twitter.com/piqapqvVMv

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 19, 2024

According to Russia's RT and the defense ministry, Ukraine lost two of the Abrams tanks as recently as last week.

"Last week, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that two Ukrainian Abrams tanks had been seized during an operation in Ukraine’s Sumy Region," RT wrote. "The Defense Ministry released a video showing Russian troops recovering the vehicles, which appeared to be intact," the report continued. "The tanks were reportedly towed to the rear by the 22nd Motor Rifle Regiment after reconnaissance teams secured the area."

Both President Biden at the time (in 2023) as well as much of the American media hailed that the Abrams tanks for Ukraine program (which involved training operators) would be a "game-changer". But it perhaps in the end proved embarrassing for the Pentagon.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/12/2025 - 05:45