Lower The Steaks, Raise The Stakes

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

US stocks closed mixed on Friday to cap off a week where concerns over valuations caused substantial wobbles. The NASDAQ was in the red for the week while the Dow Jones and S&P500 managed to eke out minor gains. Markets have seemingly begun to pay attention to the heroic P/E multiples that many AI-adjacent names are trading on, with more questions being raised about the ability of AI hype to be converted into tangible profits for shareholders.

Scion Capital’s Michael Burry (of Big Short fame) made headlines last week by shutting down his hedge fund, telling investors that “my estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets”. Burry had been critical of tech darlings Palantir and NVIDIA, disclosing on X that he had spent $9.2m buying up puts against Palantir stock as he questioned the economics of the AI boom and suggested that some accounting practices concerning depreciation schedules looked rubbery. News emerged this morning that Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel has sold his entire stake in NVIDIA and substantially trimmed his position in Tesla while adding to longs in Microsoft and Apple.

There was also a geopolitical element to risk-off sentiment last week. Crude oil prices lifted after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz – the first such seizure since the end of the war between Iran and Israel in June – and Donald Trump said that he had “made up [his] mind” on Venezuela, hinting that the 15,000 US troops and more than a dozen warships (including the US’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier) recently moved to the area as part ‘Operation Southern Spear’ could see action to oust the Maduro regime. Maduro, clearly sensing the danger, broke into a rendition of John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’ (yes, really) at a rally on Saturday as he urged peace.

Events in the Russia-Ukraine war also added to pressure on energy markets. Ukrainian strikes on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk has reportedly interrupted up to 2% of Russian oil supply while drone strikes on a refinery near Ryazan south of Moscow put further pressure on Russia’s ability to produce refined hydrocarbons used as transport fuels. Consequently, European gasoil futures closed the week 2.86% higher.

According to the Guardian, Russia has responded to Ukrainian strikes by targeting Ukrainian rail infrastructure and train drivers. The Guardian cites a Ukrainian government Minister who says that there has been a threefold increase in strikes on the Ukrainian rail system since July. Degrading Ukrainian rail infrastructure makes it more difficult for Ukraine to move troops and supplies to the front lines, but it will also make it harder to move grain cargoes out of the country. RaboResearch’s Agri Commodity Market Research team have just published their 2026 annual outlook available here.

Geopolitical risks have also been rising elsewhere. Relations between China and Japan have deteriorated over recent comments by Japanese PM Takaichi suggesting that a Chinese strike on Taiwan could be considered “existential” for Japan, and therefore justify Japanese military intervention under the country’s pacificist constitution. Meanwhile, tensions between India and Pakistan have been rising following a series of bombings and the government of Thailand has said that it is suspending its ceasefire with Cambodia, accusing the latter of laying landmines at the border. The US has responded by suspending trade deal talks with Thailand in a bid to pressure the latter to recommit to the ceasefire.

Spot gold benefited from rising geopolitical risks to close more than 2% higher on the week at $4,082/oz. Bitcoin has been heavily sold off and is dealing just over $94,000/coin at time of writing. The DXY missed a safe-haven bid last week and US 10-year yields rose by almost 3 basis points on Friday to 4.15%. That’s a rise of just over 5 basis points on the week, but US 10s outperformed their counterparts in Australia and the UK after a strong jobs report all but dashed hopes of another rate cut in the former and the rolling political and budgetary shambles in the latter scared investors away. Yields on 10-year French OATs fell slightly on the week while Bunds performed similarly to Treasuries.

Having felt the sting of recent election losses, the Trump administration has moved quickly to shore up support via cost of living measures for America’s middle and working classes. Notable recent items include a $2,000 tariff “dividend” for low and middle-income Americans, a $1,000 tax-advantaged ‘Trump Account’ invested in US stocks for babies born from 2025 through 2028, hinted 50-year mortgages and mooted changes to health insurance arrangements to see government funding redirected from insurance companies direct to individuals’ accounts.

The administration also announced on Friday that it would be exempting certain food items from tariffs. Exempt items include beef, coffee, cocoa, bananas, tomatoes, avocadoes, coconuts, pineapples, oranges, tea, nutmeg and cinnamon. Many of these items share the characteristic of having little or no domestic supply source in the USA or, in the case of beef, supply that is heavily constrained by the lowest US herd numbers since the 1950s. Consequently, tariff protection is unlikely to induce a near-term domestic supply response and (contingent on demand elasticities) is likely to be passed through to consumers as higher prices.

The reduction in tariffs on imported foodstuffs is therefore likely to reduce inflation pressures. This will be an interesting point of consideration at the December FOMC meeting as Fed rate-setters sift through the backlog of data that had been delayed by the US government shutdown and try to guess at the path ahead for inflation, employment and growth while also weighing up threats from frothy asset markets and geopolitical risks. OIS futures are currently pricing a 41% probability of a 25bp cut at the December meeting...

... but perhaps lowering the cost of steaks raises the stakes for the FOMC?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 10:40

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending was unchanged:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,652.1 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,647.5 billion. ...

n August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $517.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $517.5 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 6.5% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.8% below the peak in December 2023.

Public construction spending (orange) is close to the peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 2.0%. Private non-residential spending is down 4.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 2.7% year-over-year.

USPS Reports 5.7% Decline In Parcel Volumes, $9BN Loss

Submitted by Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves,

The U.S. Postal Service lost $9 billion in fiscal year 2025, a $500 million improvement from the prior year that officials attributed to greater revenue intake and reduction in transportation and workers compensation costs. But controllable loss, essentially adjusted operating income that excludes expenses such as workers compensation that are out of management’s control, worsened from $1.8 billion to $2.7 billion.

Financial results for the year ended Sept. 30 were released Friday as the Postal Service ups its tempo for the busy holiday period, when package and greeting card volumes surge. 

The U.S. Postal Service needs to “execute flawlessly” during the peak shipping season before Christmas, and beyond, to demonstrate it can sustain improved service performance and win more parcel volumes necessary for the organization’s financial recovery, Postmaster General David Steiner said in a video address to employees this week.  Service levels are steadily improving this year and the Postal Service is regularly able to achieve on-time service in the high-eighty and mid-ninety percentiles for some of our products, he told the board of governors Friday. And nearly half of the packages and mail are actually delivered earlier than the service standard.

The national post said operating revenue increased $916 million, transportation expenses fell $422 million and worker’s compensation expense declined $1.1 billion, partially offset by increased compensation and benefits expense of $1.7 billion, including a voluntary retirement program, and higher other operating expenses of $221 million.  About 10,500 employees accepted early retirement offers leading to a $167 million expense provision.

Total operating revenue was $80.5 billion, an increase of $916 million, or 1.2 percent, compared to the prior year. The increase was due largely to continued growth of USPS Ground Advantage shipping service, which replaced first-class package services in 2023 and offers two-to-five day service standards for packages up to 70 pounds, as well as price increases in both mail and shipping categories.

First-Class Mail revenue increased 1.5% ($370 million) on a 5% volume decline year over year. Marketing Mail revenue increased 2.3% ($350 million), despite a 1.3% decline in volume. Shipping and packages revenue increased 1.0% to $32.6 billion despite a 5.7% volume decline, or 415 million pieces. 

The Postal Service is seeking further administrative and legislative reforms to get rid of outdated financial and regulatory burdens that other government agencies don’t face. These reforms include: changes in retiree pension benefit funding rules for the Civil Service Retirement System benefits, diversification of pension assets, raising the statutory debt ceiling, and workers’ compensation administration reform. The Postal Service Reform Act of 2022 repealed the requirement that the USPS annually prepay future retirement health benefits, but more structural changes are needed, postal officials say. 

Steiner, who has been on the job for a little more than 100 days, said he planned to build on the Delivering for America transformation plan of his predecessor, Louis DeJoy, saying the Postal Service is “generally on the right track in terms of network modernization strategies.”

He stressed the importance of generating more revenue by attracting parcel business, which postal watchers say is one of the few tools available since most costs are fixed and difficult to lower. In a news release last month, Steiner added that he expects the Postal Service to continue gaining market share in the parcel sector.

The USPS, which delivered an average of 23.9 million packages per day in 2024, controls more than 30% of the parcel market by volume. Despite being the market share leader, it only gets about 17% of the market’s total revenue, compared to UPS’s nearly 32% of revenues and FedEx, with 25% of the available revenue, according to ShipMatrix. 

“By any standard our financial situation is precarious. No organization, even the Postal Service, can lose billions every year without consequences. Over the coming 12 months, we are going to act with urgency to get on a financially sustainable path,” Steiner said in the video.

Peak season prep

Postal service officials say they are ready for the busiest mailing period of the year. 

Over the past four years, the U.S. Postal Service has invested nearly $20 billion in its facilities, logistics and processing capabilities, to streamline its mail and package network and improve delivery reliability. 

The USPS has added 94 high-tech package sorting machines this year. The installation of 614 total automated sorters over the past five years has increased daily processing capacity from 60 million to 88 million packages. The machines have automated scanning capabilities that allow tracking visibility for customers as packages move through the postal system and can handle larger packages than legacy machines, according to the semi-private agency. 

The Postal Service is hiring 14,000 temporary employees to help handle the surge in letters and parcels, down from 40,000 a few years ago. There is less need for temporary workers after the USPS in 2020 began converting 232,000 precareer employees to full-time positions. 

This year, the national post has opened new facilities in Dallas, Phoenix; Johnson City, Tennessee; and other locations, and will soon open buildings in Memphis, Tennessee; Birmingham, Alabama; Tampa, Florida; and San Antonio, Texas.  Within the past four years, USPS has opened nine regional processing and distribution centers; 19 regional transfer hubs (which now handle two thirds of three-to-five day Ground Advantage packages); 17 local processing centers and 133 sorting and delivery centers. 

At the same time the USPS is adding more efficient infrastructure, it is closing other facilities in an effort to consolidate operations. 

The U.S. Postal Service in 2021 had 427 facilities, many of them operated by contractors or under short-term leases, functioning in an uncoordinated manner. Under the transformation agenda initiated by former Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, the agency is moving to standardize operations by downsizing the network to 250 facilities — 60 regional processing and distribution centers, and 190 local  processing centers that sort letters, flats and parcels for final-mile delivery. Critics say the reorganization has negatively affected service in recent years.

Updated service standards this year allow the USPS to turn around mail within a region in two or three days, an improvement from the past, according to the USPS.

“Without a doubt, the Postal Service is in a better place today than it would have been without these initiatives. They dramatically improved our middle mile operations to transform the Postal Service into a logistics powerhouse,” Steiner said during the board meeting. “While we may change specific initiatives as we move forward and our execution needs improvement, I do not see the need for a fundamental reassessment of our processing and logistics modernization strategies at this time.”

The Postal Service said it has received nearly 29,000 new vehicles this year and deployed more than 24,000 of them on postal delivery routes. The Postal Service expects to acquire a total of 106,480 new vehicles, including 66,000 zero-emission electric vehicles, aimed at improving service reliability and reducing emissions. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 10:00

'Goldilocks' Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Surges To One Year High

Amid the last month's absence of hard economic data, investors have had to rely on soft survey data (and alternative providers) and that has been somewhat optimistic...

Today, we saw yet another soft survey data point beat expectations as the NY Fed's 'Empire State Manufacturing Survey' surged to +18.7 from +10.7 and smashing expectations of a +5.8 print...

“Manufacturing activity grew at a solid pace in New York State, with the survey’s headline index reaching its highest level since last November," said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed.

Gauges of new orders and shipments also advanced to the highest in a year.

The overall outlook over the next six months moderated but has been positive for most of the year.

A measure of factory employment edged up and a gauge of hours worked climbed to the highest since May 2022 against the backdrop of steadier demand. The outlook for employment in the next six months climbed to the highest since the start of the year.

Additionally, The Fed’s report showed gauges of prices paid for materials as well as a measure of prices received both eased. Forward-looking metrics for both also cooled.

Finally, we find it interesting that this survey soared after the election of Marxist sympathizer Mamdani as NYC mayor?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 09:30

The post Trump’s Dissertation on “Our Friend the Beaver”: “New” Ideas on Health Care appeared first on CEPR.

A Very Important Week For Consumer Stocks 

Goldman's top sector specialist, Scott Feiler, offers four thoughts on the consumer ahead of what he calls a "very important week" for the space.

Feiler said that consumer stocks finally showed signs of life last week, helped by a few solid earnings beats, but the improvement was mostly based on market rotation as AI names dumped for three consecutive days.

He said the next round of consumer earnings, from now till Thanksgiving, should look better than the first leg of the earnings season. 

Positioning in discretionary sits at 7-year lows, he noted, adding that many traders are reluctant to pre-trade a 2026 "consumer rebound" given that the group still trades in the shadow of daily AI moves and a labor market that feels soft. 

Here's what Feiler is telling clients about consumer stocks before the week kicks off:

1. Consumer Refresh – The consumer group finally acted a little better last week. Why? It helped that the limited consumer EPS reports we got were good and were finally rewarded, as opposed to faded (ONON, REAL, DDS). We should get a run of good results this week and next from a bunch of the bellwethers. It won't be unanimous, but earnings between now and Thanksgiving should feel much better than the 1st part of the consumer earnings season.

While the better EPS results helped last week, the improved price action really just felt primarily the result of market factors.   The sector outperformed the market 3 days in a row (Tuesday to Thursday). Those 3 days just so happened to be the 3 days of the substantial AI underperformance.

2. What Next for Consumer? Hope, but Without Conviction:

It does feel like we can see some better price action in consumer until year-end. It does not feel like it can happen in a straight line though. We highlighted gross exposure last week in discretionary is at 7 year lows (GS PB) and there is still optimism about the tax refund/stimulus trade in 1H26.

3. Bellwether Week Ahead – Better Results Finally?:

• Glass Half Full Week?: Some of the biggest consumer companies in the world report this week.  It will not be perfect but would expect this week of earnings to be better than the last few in Consumer.

• WMT - No Change?: Given some of the recent concerns on the US consumer, there are few more important things this week than WMT. A beat and raise is expected. It is worth noting that our analyst, Kate McShane, spoke with the management 3x during September and October. Their message was always that they had seen no change to the US Consumer, despite industry concerns. COST did release October results a couple weeks after our last conversation with WMT and COST noted some slowdown at the end of October. Bottom-line, expectations are for WMT's actual results to be quite good still, but there will be a focus as to whether they saw the late October and early November slowing that others alluded to.

• Others That Should Beat: There will be plenty of other really important ones also. Beats are expected are TJX, WSM, ROST & GAP. Then next week, beats are expected from BBY, BURL, DKS, URBN & others.

• Home Improvement – Price Action is a Must Watch: Sentiment has cooled here very recently. Small top-line downside is expected from both HD and LOW and consensus numbers in 2026 have been moving lower. Despite some expected squishiness here, there does still seem to be investors optimism that pockets of housing are ownable into 2026 (HD especially). That is why price action will be just as telling as actual results, given few names in consumer have traded well on squishy results so far.   Our view is the price action out of HD and LOW feels like it will be more important than the actual results, absent a shock out of numbers (other than tiny top-line downside).

4. De-grossing Activity Slowed & Consumer Was Slightly Better to Buy: In last weekend's note, we highlighted how gross exposure to consumer discretionary on our PB book hit 7 year lows. This past week, the PB noted single stocks saw their largest gross trading activity in over 4 years, and Consumer Discretionary and Staples both participated in that, and were both better to buy. That's a change vs the recent trend.

The total PB book saw long buys outpacing short sales (3.4 to 1). Consumer was not alone in higher trading activity, as all sectors saw increased gross trading flow, led in $ terms by Info Tech (short sales > long buys), Industrials (long buys > short sales), Health Care (long buys > short sales).  Consumer Disc (long buys > short sales), and Staples (long buys > short sales) were close behind though.

Investor positioning within the consumer stocks that Feiler's desk tracks.

Related:

• A Tale Of Two Consumer Worlds - Captured In A Single Chart

• Consumers Ditch Restaurants For Groceries As Budgets Break

• Early Warning Indicator Signals Sharp Sentiment Deterioration Among Low-Income Consumers, Gen Z

• "Worst Consumer Sentiment In Decades": Goldman Goes Defcon 1 On Imploding US Consumer

• Abrupt Sentiment Shift Rocks Gen Z: Restaurants Warn Of Spending Drop As Student Loan "Default Cliff" Arrives

With low-income consumers certaintly pressured, the Trump administration has launched:

• "Surgical & Beautiful": Trump Boasts Operation Affordability Ahead Of Midterm Cycle

All eyes are on low-tier consumers. Their sentiments matter. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 09:15

US Home Builders Offer 'Elevated' Incentives Amid Affordability Challenges

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Faced with affordability constraints and cautious demand, and with abundant land in states such as Arizona, Utah, Texas, and Florida, many developers are offering enticing incentives to potential homebuyers.

A model of a new single-family home at The Ridge at Stone Butte in Phoenix, Arizona. Courtesy of RE/MAX Signature in Phoenix

A recent Redfin report indicates that builders are offering mortgage-rate buydowns, assistance with closing costs, and upgraded home amenities to attract buyers. In areas where supply exceeds demand, the report found builders offering up to $10,000 in closing costs, as well as top-of-the-line appliances or home finishes.

“New homes still make up a significantly higher portion of the single-family supply than before the pandemic,” the report states. As demand escalated during the COVID-19 pandemic, new home construction increased to approximately 35 percent in 2022, up from 20 percent in 2019.

While new construction has slowed to 27 percent in August, some markets are still experiencing a glut of leftover new homes on the market. As a result, the report indicates, builders may be cautious about starting new projects as they attempt to sell off existing inventory.

In its October report, the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index (HMI) found that 38 percent of builders were reducing prices by as much as 6 percent, while 65 percent indicated they were offering sales incentives to prospective buyers.

Still, the NAHB noted that builder confidence for newly-constructed single-family homes was 37 in October—up by five points from September and the highest reading since April.

D.R. Horton, one of the country’s largest homebuilders, recently reported that its homebuilding revenue for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 decreased by 7 percent to $31.5 billion, with homes closed dropping by 5 percent to 84,863.

In an Oct. 28 statement, the Arlington, Texas-based company indicated it had 29,600 homes in inventory, of which 19,600 were unsold as of the end of September.

David Auld, D.R. Horton’s executive chairman, said that affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment are still impacting new-home demand.

A newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Willis, Texas, is listed for $535,000. Courtesy of the Houston Association of Realtors ‘Incredible Deals’

Developers in Houston, Texas, are offering “incredible deals,” Houston Association of Realtors Vice Chair Kat Robinson told The Epoch Times.

“Some of them have mortgage interest rates as low as 3.99 percent—that’s unbelievable,” she said.

“So now buyers have the choice of paying around 6 percent for a resale where they may have to make some repairs, or just drive an extra 15 minutes to buy something new for a much lower rate.”

Other concessions include help with closing costs or upgrades to appliances or countertops.

“The incentive plans change about every month based on the number of units sold,” Robinson noted.

Sales of new single-family homes are comparable to last year, she said, and much better than in 2023. Pricing varies by development and location, but on average, a 1,800-square-foot new construction with three bedrooms and two baths is listed for $500,000.

Many developments offer a community center, pool, walking paths, other amenities, along with monthly homeowners association (HOA) fees.

Still, resale homes continue to draw prospective buyers.

“A lot of older neighborhoods have full-grown trees that canopy the streets and create a charming experience,” Robinson said. “A lot of people do prefer resale homes because they want trees.”

According to Robinson, the greater Houston area has more listings than ever, and buyers now have many choices and more negotiation power.

Some Areas See Higher Sales

Christy Walker, president of the Phoenix Realtors, told The Epoch Times that nearly 10 percent of the 19,200 active home listings in the greater Phoenix area are new builds, and she has seen developers offering buyer incentives.

Some of the incentives include lower interest rates of 4.5 percent on conventional loans and 4.25 percent on Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans, according to Walker. Other incentives include assistance with closing costs or home upgrades, such as appliances or finishes.

Meanwhile, Walker has witnessed higher sales for new construction in the area.

“We have a new build that we’re selling, and appointments to see models on the new construction site were scooped up within the first hour,” she said.

“We now have over 600 on a waiting list to see them.”

Located in North Phoenix, The Ridge at Stone Butte offers single-family homes ranging from 1,600 to 4,000 square feet, featuring gourmet kitchens, spa-like bathrooms, walk-in closets, and panoramic views of the desert.

Walker noted that new construction for a 1,800-square-foot, single-family home with three bedrooms and two bathrooms typically lists in the mid-$600,000s.

“With the median sales price of about $550,000 for a similar resale home, a lot of potential homeowners are opting for a brand new home—one where they can actually save on mortgage interest costs,” she said.

Because Phoenix and its outlying regions have abundant available land, the area has traditionally been a popular place for new home development.

“We have a lot of out-of-state buyers looking for more affordable options, as well as some local move-up and first-time buyers,” Walker noted.

New Construction in 2026

In its Emerging Real Estate Trends for 2026 report, PCW and the Urban Land Institute forecast that builders are looking to the future with cautious optimism. While new homes and resale inventory are increasing, some builders are shifting to single-family rental partnerships and slowing down on major land purchases.

“Affordability remains the greatest challenge and is being addressed by constructing smaller, lower-spec homes, as most buyers are willing to sacrifice size and finishes for price relief,” the report states.

The report suggests one method builders could use to make homes more affordable is to build smaller ones. The average size of a new single-family home fell to 2,386 square feet in the second quarter from a peak of 2,692 square feet in 2016.

Other builders say they plan to lower the ceiling height, provide fewer windows, and add lower-finish countertops to save costs.

Some builders surveyed believe rising costs in labor and materials could be challenging over the next two years. Almost all stressed the need for collaboration with local municipalities to allow for increased density, thereby reducing housing costs and streamlining the permitting process and project approvals.

In an earlier report this year, the National Association of Realtors found that the South is experiencing some of the best deals in new home construction. It named the five markets with the largest declines in new home prices: Little Rock, Arkansas, with a 15.6 percent drop; Austin, Texas, 8.5 percent lower; Wichita, Kansas; Jacksonville and Cape Coral, Florida, all at more than 7 percent declines.

“We expect our sales incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2026, the extent to which will depend on market conditions throughout the year,” he said.

Auld said that the company has expanded its new home construction into seven new states and 38 markets.

 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/17/2025 - 09:00

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.7%), and down 5.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 14th, inventory was at 840 thousand (7-day average), compared to 842 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

My back-to-work morning plane reads:

• What If Things Are Better Than They Seem? I’ve always been a glass-is-half-full kind of person. I don’t worry too much about things outside of my control. I try not to get stuck in the gloom-and-doom vortex so many people have been sucked into since the 2008 financial crisis and the advent of social media. (A Wealth of Common Sense)

• Buffett goes quiet: The Berkshiew Hathaway founder cut his workload back to an annual Thanksgiving letter — and giving away his billions… (Berkshiew Hathaway) see also Warren Buffett on luck and not beating yourself up over mistakes: “Over the years, I have made many mistakes,” he wrote. “Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be about one every five years.“ (TKer by Sam Ro)

• ‘Take Money Out of Wall Street’: The Debate Animating the Fed Chair Race Top contenders to lead the Federal Reserve under Trump are lining up around a policy that doesn’t seem Trump-like. (Politico)

• Wall Street Blows Past Bubble Worries to Supercharge AI Spending Frenzy: Firms such as Blue Owl Capital have raised trillions in investing firepower. The artificial-intelligence build-out is a perfect match, though warning signs are flashing. (Wall Street Journal)

• Concierge Medicine Is Booming. Should You Join the VIP Club? The membership clubs charge annual fees for access to doctors, extra testing, and perks like an Oura ring. Are they worth the cost? (Barron’s)

• Why car insurance costs have soared (and what drivers are doing about it): On average, premiums are up 55% since February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Almost all of that increase came between 2022 and 2024. (NPR) see also Trump’s Hatred of EVs Is Making Gas Cars More Expensive: Trump’s anti-climate agenda is making it more expensive to own a car, period. (Wired)

• Major US broadcasters sit out Cop30 climate talks: ‘They’re missing a lot’ Figures show none of US ‘big four’ – CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox – appear to have sent teams to cover summit in Belém. (The Guardian)

• Epstein’s Library: The disgraced financier’s  emails reveal the unusual collection of books he bought prior to his arrest on sex-trafficking charges in 2019. From Trump to power and sex, the titles offer an unusual insight into his interests and mindset. (Bloomberg) free 

• Has the Watch World Found Its Anthony Bourdain? A new show called Man of the Hour gives the watch world—and its most exciting independent makers—a long overdue close-up. (GQ)

• How American and Chinese Drone Arsenals Stack Up: A head-to-head comparison of unmanned aircraft shows the global rivals in a close race. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bankim “Binky” Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation at Deutsche Bank Securities, a role he has held since 2004.

 

The late 1990’s also produced ebullient sentiment, as one would expect during a bubble. I would characterize today’s sentiment backdrop as “enthusiastic” but not much more than that.

Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments

 

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