Individual Economists

OPEC+ Accelerates Oil Production Hikes Despite 'Glut' Concerns

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OPEC+ Accelerates Oil Production Hikes Despite 'Glut' Concerns

OPEC+ agreed to accelerate the return of another chunk of oil that it’s been withholding from the market, as the group sticks with a strategy of prioritizing market share over prices.

After an online meeting Sunday, eight OPEC+ members said they will boost production by 137,000 barrels a day in October, beginning to roll back some voluntary cuts they had previously put in place.

The alliance, which comprises OPEC and other top oil producers including Russia, had been expected to keep output steady until recent days. 

It’s the first sliver of a bigger 1.65 million barrels a day tranche of supply that was meant to be held back until the end of next year, suggesting cautious optimism about the market.

OPEC+ members said Sunday the barrels may be restored in part or in full “subject to evolving market conditions.”

While the production increases have prevented prices from rising sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions, The Wall Street Journal reports they have sparked fears of an impending glut among investors. 

This has yet to show in inventory data, largely because of robust summer demand and only modest stock buildups in OECD countries, according to market watchers. 

Actual OPEC+ production also has fallen short of pledged volumes in recent months, as some members had to restrict output to compensate for earlier overproduction.

The decision is likely to put a renewed spotlight on the unused production levels available in different OPEC+ members, as countries that can’t pump more won’t fully benefit from the increased quotas, while they face the added pressure of lower prices. 

The group’s next meeting will be October 5.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 12:15

South Korea Makes Deal With US To Release Detained Georgia Plant Workers

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South Korea Makes Deal With US To Release Detained Georgia Plant Workers

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

The South Korean government on Sept. 7 said that the more than 300 South Korean workers who were detained during a federal immigration operation at a Georgia Hyundai plant will be released and sent home.

The South Korea and U.S. governments finalized negotiations on releasing the workers, said presidential chief of staff, Kang Hoon-sik. South Korea will send a charter plane to bring the workers back once the remaining administrative steps are concluded, he added.

On Friday, U.S. immigration authorities said they had arrested 475 people at the worksite, most of whom were South Korean nationals. Hundreds of federal agents had conducted an operation at the Korean automaker Hyundai’s large Georgia-based manufacturing plant, where it builds electric vehicles. More than 300 South Koreans were part of the group detained, said Cho Hyun, South Korea’s Foreign Minister.

In video footage released by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on Saturday, a caravan of vehicles can be seen approaching the site before federal agents direct workers to form a line outside. Agents told several detainees to put up their hands against a bus before frisking them. Some of the workers were shackled around their hands, ankles, and waists.

The plant, which is still under construction, is a partnership between Hyundai and LG Energy Solution to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles. The Hyundai campus is one of Georgia’s largest economic development projects.

The majority of the detainees were sent to an immigration detention center in Folkston, Georgia, near the Florida border. 

Steven Schrank, the lead Georgia agent of Homeland Security Investigations, said during a news conference on Sept. 5 that none of the arrested workers have been charged with crimes yet, as the investigation is still ongoing. The Sept. 4 operation was the largest federal immigration worksite operation in Homeland Security Investigations’s history, he said. 

The South Korean government, a key U.S. ally, said it felt “concern and regret” regarding the operation targeting its citizens and has sent diplomats to the plant. 

The effort continues the Trump administration’s focus on illegal immigration and deportations at businesses and workplaces that allegedly employ illegal immigrants.

Last week, ICE agents arrested dozens of illegal immigrants in the New York townships of Cato and Fulton.

The operation was carried out at a factory run by Nutrition Bar Confectioners, a local food processing company. Between 40 and 70 people were arrested.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul criticized the arrests.

“I am outraged by this morning’s ICE raids in Cato and Fulton, where more than 40 adults were seized—including parents of at least a dozen children at risk of returning from school to an empty house,” Hochul wrote in a statement.

“New York will work with the federal government to secure our borders and deport violent criminals, but we will never stand for masked ICE agents separating families and abandoning children.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 11:40

Putin Invited Zelensky To Moscow, Who Responds "I Can't Go To The Capital Of This Terrorist"

Zero Hedge -

Putin Invited Zelensky To Moscow, Who Responds "I Can't Go To The Capital Of This Terrorist"

Russian state media sources have of late been alleging a secret Western plot to replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. These reports have continued through August and into September, but the scenario has obviously not come to fruition.

A prime candidate to replace him would be former chief of the armed forces, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny - who Zelensky fired last year and shipped off to London to be ambassador there. Since then, Ukraine's military has been doing even worse on the battlefield, according to The Wall Street Journal and many other reports.

Getty Images

Russia's TASS has claimed there's a specific plot afoot, reporting a so-called "triumvirate" consisting of Andriy Yermak (head of the Ukrainian presidential office), Kyrylo Budanov (military intelligence chief), and Gen. Zaluzhny (former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the UK), are actively working with the US and UK to replace President Zelensky with Zaluzhny.

Ukrainian media has also picked up on this, but has dismissed it as Russian wartime propaganda:

The SVR said the “conspiracy” was the underlying cause “…of the recent scandalous attempt by ‘Kyiv’s president’ to restrict the powers of the local anti-corruption mechanisms.” This was in reference to the proposed legal attempts to limit the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office.

But Zelensky has, under pressure from Western partners, dutifully reversed his legal move against said anti-corruption bodies. 

Several reports by the end of July indicated he "backtracked" amid domestic and international criticism. Still, the Russian media reports claimed this revealed cracks in his support base, emboldening those plotting against him.

But given Zelensky's recent appearance in Paris for a collective defense conference alongside President Macron, and given he's readying a plan with NATO allies for 'security guarantees' - it doesn't seem like he's going anywhere soon.

President Putin has repeatedly called Zelensky out as 'illegitimate' - but still while in Beijing this past week indicated he's open to inviting him to Moscow for talks.

Putin caveated that this would have to be premised on real progress at the negotiating table, however. He actually appeared to throw out an open invitation, at least according to US officials who informed Zelensky of the overture

Watch: Zelensky rejects the invite...

Zelensky countered by saying Putin should come to Kyiv, but practically speaking that's not going to happen, given it would be a security nightmare for the Kremlin, and given it would be seen as bowing to Ukraine's demands.

"He can come to Kyiv," Zelensky said. "I can't go to Moscow when my country's under missiles, under attack, each day. I can't go to the capital of this terrorist."

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 11:05

The Bond Market Is Suddenly More Concerned About Jobs Than Inflation

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The Bond Market Is Suddenly More Concerned About Jobs Than Inflation

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The long bond verdict is finally in. Jobs and growth outweigh inflation.

US Treasury Yield Notes
  • Between August 5 and August 21, bond yields for US treasuries of 2 year duration or longer all rose.

  • The period between August 21 and September 2 was very painful for 30-year long bond holders but favorable for the rest.

  • Starting September 2, there was a bond market rally across the board.

Treasury Yield Changes Since September 2

What Happened?
  • The ISM report on September 2 showed weak hiring.

  • The BLS JOLTS repot on September 3 revealed unemployment was above job openings for the first time since the pandemic.

  • The ADP report on September 4 was weak, especially small businesses.

  • The nonfarm payroll report on September 5 was a disaster.

The trend on the 10-year treasury note and the 30-year long bond are back in sync. Both are headed lower.

The discrepancy resolved to job weakness over inflation concerns, but Powell will be cautious unless there is a collapse.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 10:30

CBS Changes Policy For 'Face The Nation' Interviews After "Shamefully" Editing Noem Interview

Zero Hedge -

CBS Changes Policy For 'Face The Nation' Interviews After "Shamefully" Editing Noem Interview

CBS News has announced it will no longer edit guest interviews on its flagship Sunday program “Face the Nation,” moving to a live or live-to-tape format following days of criticism over its handling of a sit-down with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

The change comes after Noem accused the network of “shamefully” cutting portions of her Aug. 31 interview in order to “whitewash the truth.”

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said the broadcaster removed over 23 percent of her answers, “exposing the truth about criminal illegal alien Kilmar Abrego Garcia, President Donald Trump’s lawful actions to protect the American people, and Secretary Noem’s commitment to fight on behalf of the American people and their tax dollars.”

CBS initially defended its actions, saying that the unedited version was posted online, but the backlash continued to grow on social media and beyond.

Noem and others circulated clips of the missing passages online and accused the network of trying to manipulate public opinion by withholding harsh truths—like when Noem said that Abrego Garcia was a “known human smuggler, MS-13 gang member, an individual who was a wife beater.”

Then, on Sept. 5, CBS said that it will now only broadcast live or live-to-tape interviews, meaning guests’ answers will not be edited in any way—except in situations where legal or national security reasons require it. The broadcaster said it was changing its editorial policy “in response to audience feedback.”

“This extra measure means the television audience will see the full, unedited interview on CBS and we will continue our practice of posting full transcripts and the unedited video online,” a CBS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

The Noem interview is the second time in less than a year that CBS has figured into disputes over alleged selective editing.

Last fall, then-presidential candidate Trump sued CBS, alleging that a “60 Minutes” interview with Democratic challenger and then-Vice President Kamala Harris had been manipulated to improve her image and boost her chances in the 2024 election.

CBS defended the editing of the Harris interview, saying that transcripts and videos of the full interview showed that the broadcast “was not doctored or deceitful.”

The uncut transcript showed that some of Harris’s answers were cut roughly in half while also clarifying her full response to a question about the Israel–Hamas war, which Trump’s campaign alleged was deceptively edited to make her look better to potential voters.

Later, Trump amended his complaint to include CBS parent company Paramount Global as a defendant, while doubling the amount of damages sought to $20 billion.

Paramount ultimately settled that case in July for $16 million, while denying any wrongdoing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 09:55

Released Comey Memos Reveal Obama Admin's Endorsement Of Russian Hoax

Zero Hedge -

Released Comey Memos Reveal Obama Admin's Endorsement Of Russian Hoax

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Newly unclassified memos from disgraced former FBI Director James Comey confirmed that the Obama administration not only welcomed the Russia meddling hoax but also discussed potential post-election actions.

Journalist Catherine Herridge first shared the October 2016 memos on X on Friday after FBI Director Kash Patel approved their declassification.

In one memo, Comey asked, “What is the goal? Informing US people? Disrupting Russians.”

Elsewhere, he contemplated potential steps after President Donald Trump’s election in 2016.

“What are the circumstances in which we can imagine taking any action after the election,” Comey wrote.

“I can’t picture it so why threaten any.”

One note, titled “My Thoughts,” referenced the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former Rep. (now Sen.) Adam Schiff, both California Democrats, as putting the FBI “in odd spot.”

The context behind this last note is unclear.

On another page, Comey used the acronym “COS,” likely referring to a chief of staff.

He also entertained the Russia meddling theory.

“Russians have a view on who should win,” he wrote, adding:

“SR (Susan Rice/National Security Adviser) •Need IC (intelligence Community) to do their best lay down of what we could say publicly.”

The memos suggest the outgoing Obama administration embraced the idea that Russia wanted Trump to win the election—a theory that later evolved into claims that Trump colluded with Russia.

No evidence has ever been produced to substantiate this claim.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 09:20

Cost Of Living Is The Biggest Challenge Americans Face

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Cost Of Living Is The Biggest Challenge Americans Face

While inflation has long come down from its 2021/2022 highs, when it peaked at 9 percent, it is still slightly elevated at 2.7 percent.

More importantly though, people are still struggling to cope with the lasting effects of the inflation crisis.

As Statista's Felix Richter shows in the following chart, according to a new Consumer Insights survey conducted in June and July 2025, 49 percent of U.S. adults said that the high cost of living was one of the biggest challenges they currently face – making it by far the most common answer.

 Cost of Living Is the Biggest Challenge Americans Face | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 22.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that.

Food prices have are up 25 percent, rents have increased almost 27 percent and transportation prices are up 28 percent.

And yet, nominal wages have only grown 21.8 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were almost five years ago.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 08:45

WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A "Major Military Engagement" Within Six Months

Zero Hedge -

WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A "Major Military Engagement" Within Six Months

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

French hospitals have been advised to prepare for a large scale war by next year, in a government letter that was leaked to the media.

There are reports that the French Ministry of Health has informed hospitals to prepare for a “major [military] engagement” by March of 2026.

The letter allegedly states that between 10,000 to 50,000 people are to be expected in hospitals.

The leaked letter also reportedly explains that mass casualties are to be expected not just from its own forces, but wounded soldiers from across Europe, and that France would be acting as a ‘rear base’.

It outlines how French hospitals would need to prepare for up to 50 THOUSAND beds allocated to wounded civilians and military personnel EVERY MONTH.

The Ministry of Health also noted that it is considering the creation of medical centers near ports and airports.

*  *  *

Iodine for the prepared...

*  *  *

“In the current international context, it is necessary to anticipate the modalities of health support in situations of high-intensity conflict,” the Ministry of Health letter reportedly notes.

 

The report adds that Health Minister Catherine Vautrin has not denied the authenticity of letter, claiming that it is “part of preparation.”

“It’s part of preparation, like strategic stockpiles, like epidemics,” Vautrin stated.

She added, “Hospitals are constantly preparing for epidemics and patient intake. The fact that the country is preparing for crises and assessing the consequences of what is happening [in the world] is completely normal.”

“I wasn’t in office at the time of Covid-19, remember, there were no words harsh enough to describe the country’s lack of preparedness,” she further stated.

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard about this.

Earlier this year, the French government sent a ‘survival manual’ to every household in France warning them of an ‘imminent threat to the country’.

Meanwhile, Germany’s military chief says NATO will be on alert as Russia prepares for Zapad 2025, a massive joint drill with Belarus which has been described as a dress rehearsal for a real invasion.

NATO chief Mark Rutte has warned that the world is “on the brink of WW3”, claiming a dual assault from China on Taiwan and Russia on NATO territory could spark a global conflict.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 08:10

Mapping The Passport Power Of Major Nations In 2025

Zero Hedge -

Mapping The Passport Power Of Major Nations In 2025

In 2025, Singapore retains its title as the country with the world’s most powerful passport, with visa-free access to 193 destinations.

In the data table below, Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte shows the full list of major countries and the number of visa-free access their passport provides:

Singapore’s passport power reflects the country’s strong international relations and economic stability.

Japan and South Korea follow closely with access to 190 destinations each, continuing Asia’s dominance in passport strength.

Passport Power of European and English-Speaking Countries

European countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all rank highly with access to 189 destinations.

European countries all generally have strong passports, with Switzerland the lowest among the major European nations at 187 visa-free destinations.

In terms of native English-speaking countries, the UK (186), Australia (185), and Canada (184) outpace the U.S., which now grants visa-free access to 182 destinations.

The Weaker Passports Among Major Countries

Among larger emerging markets, Brazil and Argentina have moderately high access (170 destinations), while Russia and Türkiye fall further behind at 114.

Notably, China (83), India (58), and Vietnam (50) sit near the bottom of the list, reflecting limited travel freedom despite their large populations and growing global roles.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out the countries that lead in terms of tax competitiveness on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 07:35

EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Protectionism, Politics, And US Pressure Explained

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EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Protectionism, Politics, And US Pressure Explained

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

After a two-decade stalemate, there is now movement in the trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur states of South America. Donald Trump’s hardline policies have made this possible, while criticism comes from the usual suspects.

A quarter of a century ago, in 2000, trade talks began between the EU and the Mercosur states – Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, with Venezuela joining in the meantime. Mercosur aims to reduce trade barriers, establish an integrated customs regime, and create its own internal market, similar to European structures.

The Struggle of Protectionists

It has always been a tough negotiation, but on Wednesday, the European Commission approved the version of the agreement last presented at the end of 2024. The core point is the reduction of tariffs on the majority of goods, covering European industrial products such as machinery, vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, as well as South American agricultural and raw material exports. At the same time, the agreement provides trade quotas and protective measures to shield sensitive sectors—especially European agriculture—from incoming competition. Around 350 geographical indications are intended to protect the uniqueness of European products—EU protectionism in its purest form.

Under no circumstances should the Mercosur agreement be called a free trade agreement, even if political feuilletons like to do so. The idea that open competition is the best consumer protection and the most efficient way to supply markets is still far from reality in both South America and the European Union.

Hidden Trade Barriers

Another focus of the agreement is on sustainability and regulation: Mercosur companies must comply with EU environmental and social standards and provide proof of “deforestation-free” production and adherence to the EU’s carbon taxonomy. The agreement also includes mechanisms for investment protection and corporate dispute resolution, providing legal certainty for both sides. In this regulatory arena, Brussels defines its protectionist power, surrounding trade relations with non-European states with wall after wall of non-tariff barriers.

Just as Europeans have historically struggled to allow free trade when it threatened existing economic privileges, South Americans have also been reluctant. As a result, the Mercosur agreement long remained a “ghost contract,” was revived in 2016, and now—partly under pressure from the Americans—appears attractive for both sides as a means to strengthen mutual trade and provide economic impetus to the slow-growing regions.

South America Under Pressure

Resource-rich South America has long realized that the era of the great export boom is over—primarily due to China’s ongoing economic crisis. Growth rates today are significantly below the levels of the early 2000s, averaging only around 2.5 percent. At the same time, unemployment is slowly rising, and public debt is significantly higher—in Brazil, for example, around 77 percent of GDP. Except for the special case of Argentina, which has pursued a radically market-oriented course, the pressure to act is high everywhere.

New markets must be opened, especially for raw materials and agricultural exports. This is why the Mercosur agreement with the EU is again gaining attractiveness for South American states, provided it can at least partially breach the EU’s high protective barriers.

The rub from a European perspective is that the politically influential but economically marginal agricultural lobby—especially in France—will do everything possible to keep South American competition at bay.

No Consensus Required

The European Commission has split the agreement into two parts before the voting process to pass the trade component more quickly with a qualified majority, bypassing the unanimity requirement in the Council for this section. Signing the commercial part does not require unanimity in the EU Council. For ratification of the trade section, a qualified majority in the Council of Ministers is sufficient—at least 55 percent of member states representing at least 65 percent of the EU population, which is considered likely. The European Parliament must also approve the trade section by simple majority.

The political part of the agreement, covering human rights, environmental, and social standards, is considered a “mixed agreement” and must be ratified unanimously by all national parliaments. Here, a single member state can block progress.

France’s Agricultural Lobby Will Be Compensated

Besides Polish and Italian interest groups, France remains especially critical. Given domestic political tensions, such as the upcoming vote on social spending, the country risks becoming a brake on the Mercosur agreement. It is conceivable that France will use every lobbying tool in the Euro Council before voting on the second part, which covers human rights and environmental standards, to slow down ratification.

While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed satisfaction with the negotiation result in a post on X, France remains critical but is open to the protective mechanisms proposed by the European Commission. Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin described the agricultural protection clause as “a step in the right direction” and announced a thorough review. Previously, the government had criticized the agreement as “unacceptable,” mainly due to cheap beef imports from the Mercosur region.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is attempting to mitigate concerns through temporary import restrictions and a €6.3 billion crisis fund for farmers—the approval of the opposition is once again essentially bought with taxpayers’ money, and enthusiasm for free markets remains minimal. President Macron expressed substantive concerns but refrained from outright opposition to a procedure that allows ratification without unanimity. Agricultural organizations continue their protests, while the farmers’ association FNSEA is increasingly integrated into government policy and less insistent on import protection.

Pressure from Washington

If an agreement is eventually reached between Mercosur and the EU, much of the credit goes to pressure from Washington. Donald Trump, above all, put massive pressure on European exporters through his tariff regime, forcing the opening of new markets.

If Mercosur states largely accept European climate and social rules and EU institutions pass the agreement, the European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen would achieve a first victory after the debacle with the U.S. Final negotiations in Brussels are expected later this year.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 07:00

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