"The World Situation Amounts To A Set Of Jihads Of Different Varieties..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Game On!

“Leftism is the tyranny of structurlessness. Lawlessness. The abhorrence of order. That is why Leftist individuals are characterized by emotional dysregulation. . . . "

- JT Haltigan

If you seek a general theme in this moment’s tempestuous events, try No submission. It’s behind events in the Middle East and in the USA — and across Western Civ ultimately. No submission to what, you ask? To willful evil. Of course, the willfully evil will not see it that way, and great quarrels will arise over who-and-what represents the evil abroad in the world.

Iran advertised countless times its resolve to wipe Israel off the map, in so many words. Israel was not inclined to submit to that outcome and it closely monitored Iran’s practical steps to acquire deliverable nuclear bombs. Israel, in turn, advertised that Iran’s nuclear program would not be allowed to succeed. The world stood by waiting to see who’s advertising jibed with reality.

Now you know. Never Again is not an empty slogan. The Shiite jihad has been put down, and the effort will continue until the answer is beyond dispute, days, maybe a week or more. Iran’s civil leadership was willing to talk, or at least pretend to talk down to the last hour, but the mullahs above them obdurately pushed ahead toward nuclear jihad. Not going happen, Israel assured them. And so, here we are.

The world situation amounts to a set of jihads of different varieties.

In our country, the Democratic Party has been waging jihad against order, liberty, truth, and decency. You can tell it’s jihad because it’s irrational, frankly, insane. Americans are asked to submit to propositions that will destroy the country and its traditions, and they have had enough of the hustles aimed at that outcome.

Too many of us do not believe that uncontrolled illegal immigration is okay, that government should replace the family, that all journeys in life can be equally favorable, that men can become women by wishing it, that our history must be erased, that censorship is required to keep the jihad going, and that the punishment against citizens will continue until morale improves.

That is the program of the American left and lately of the Democratic Party it has taken over. They demonstrate it by their deeds. The Party represents a dwindling cohort of the populace, but its forces have already marched through and captured many institutions crucial to our national life. The opposing force, loosely called Populism, will not submit to that program, is now actively putting a stop to as much of it as possible, shaking out those institutions.

The Left and the Democrats have lost a lot of ground in recent months, especially their control on the levers of power. And since power is really all they care about — the power to make everybody else submit — they are growing desperate, seeking to induce as much chaos across the land as they can possibly generate. Hence, the outbreaks of civil disorder in the cities, using illegal immigrants as one set of shock troops and mentally-ill youth as another phalanx.

The object of the chaos is to provoke the Populist opposition to exert its authority to control that chaos, and therefore — in the insane reasoning of the leftists — to prove that authority itself is an intolerable wickedness. This is only possible, of course, in minds that do not comprehend boundaries, differences between right and wrong, up and down, inside and outside, reality and fantasy. That is the mentality that drives itself toward chaos. So, it remains for the Populists to demonstrate that authority is not innately wicked, that it can have a beneficent purpose in the scheme of civilized humanity. Order is not necessarily tyranny.

The other once-great nations of Western Civ — Britain, Germany, France — slump towards collapse, having already submitted to the EU, run by an unelected, dictatorial, bureaucracy, under the occult influence of megalomaniacs such as Bill Gates and the Soros family. The newly-arrived hordes of Islamic immigrants in these countries demand submission of the Europeans, and the Europeans have so far failed to resist. But an inflection point draws near, and the latent ferocity of the indigenous population has yet to express itself. It may be too late to avert some kind of violent civil conflict across the continent. Governments will surely fall. Mighty empires die of old age and are conquered, alas.

Here in the USA, we await the “No Kings” actions planned for hundreds of cities and towns across the land, meticulously organized by a host of NGOs, even funded by grifts run through government itself, such as the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA), gifted with $34-million from California taxpayers. Billionaire Walmart heiress Christy Walton is allegedly behind the NGO that styles itself as “Indivisible,” the principal org promoting Saturday’s “No Kings” actions. You can suppose that the idea is to flood-the-zone with so many demonstrations in so many places that at least some of them will get yeasty with violence — tempting populist authority to assert itself. . . so that the left can call them “fascists.”

That label has probably lost its mojo. The Populist opposition has drawn a line against this shuck-and-jive, just as Israel drew a line against its declared enemy acquiring nuclear weapons. The lines, you see, are clearly drawn. The game is on.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 16:25



 

 

This week, I speak with Bill Bernstein, neurologist, investor, author and co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors about his unique career path from science to finance and how he uses lessons learned in neurology and applies them to investing. Bill also shares his thoughts on the current economic and political environment and his thoughts on how to navigate uncertainty in markets.

A list of his favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Steve Laipply, Global Co-Head of Bond ETFs at BlackRock. Previously, he was Head of U.S. iShares Fixed Income Strategy and a member of BlackRock’s Systematic Fixed Income Product Strategy Team.

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

Books Barry Mentioned

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Published Books

 

 

 

The post MiB: Bill Bernstein on Navigating Uncertainty appeared first on The Big Picture.

Battered Hezbollah Says It Will Stay Out Of Iran-Israel Fight

Hezbollah is warning of grave escalation that "crosses all red lines" the day after Israel's major missile attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. But so far the Iran-backed group is indicating it doesn't plan to reopen a war front against Israel.

"This attack by Israel, carried out with full support and protection from the U.S., represents a blatant escalation that disregards all rules and balances in the region,” Hezbollah said in a statement, and is on high alert.

The statement says that Iran has been exercising "the utmost restraint" and defended the Islamic Republic's nuclear program as for peaceful energy purposes.

"This attack will not weaken Iran but will instead strengthen its determination to defend its sovereignty and security," the group asserted.

Indeed, Tehran has on Friday made clear that it plans to continue uranium enrichment. This despite Natanz and other facilities getting hit.

International reports say that over 200 Israeli warplanes (alongside reports of drones) attacked some 100 Iranian sites.

But as for Hezbollah, it's been battered and its leadership decimated since the Gaza war began, and after a prior flare-up of fighting in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is reportedly pledging to stay out of the Iran-Israel fight thus far:

"Hezbollah is committed to the ceasefire agreement, even though Israel has not respected this commitment over the past period," the spokesperson said. "It continues to kill, assassinate, and attack areas, including entering border villages and remaining at the five points."

Reuters also cited a Hezbollah official on Friday as saying that the group "will not initiate its own attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel's strike."

This is very significant, given Israel will closely be watching its northern border. IDF reservists have reportedly been called up to bolster defenses all across Israel.

But if things escalate with more major waves of attacks on Iran, and should Tehran launch a retaliatory attack, Israel could once again find itself in yet another multi-front war, akin to the opening year of the Gaza war with Hamas.

The collapse: Hezbollah announces that it will not respond to Israel's attack on Iran.

The ayatollahs have been preparing Hezbollah for this moment for years, and now it is paralyzed.

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) June 13, 2025

As it stands, the Iran-aligned Houthis of Yemen have remained the most active in sending ballistic missiles on Israel. Israeli warplanes have in turn launched periodic strikes on Yemen, including targeting the international airport in Sanaa. Attacks might grow, in coordination with potential retaliation out of Iran.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 15:45

The Justice Department Sues California Coffee Shop Over Discrimination Against Jewish Customers

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Justice Department has filed an anti-discrimination case against the owners of the Jerusalem Coffee House in Oakland, California.

Fathi Abdulrahim Harara and Native Grounds LLC are accused of violating Title II of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, or national origin in places of public accommodation. The matter is also the subject of a private lawsuit by the Anti-Defamation League and other groups.

In the ADL complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, there are details on how a Jewish customer was alleged to have been chased from the business by its owner and an employee.

Michael Radice, visited Jerusalem Coffee House in July 2024, wearing a baseball cap with a Star of David icon and the phrase “Am Yisrael Chai” — or “the people of Israel live.”

In approaching the business, Radice says that he was confronted by a man sitting outside who demanded, “Are you a Jew?” After Mr. Radice answered affirmatively, the man verbally attacked him and accused him of being “responsible” for “killing children.”

Radice decided to go back to the business the following month and discovered that the man was an employee at the shop. He alleges that the man with the owner and a third employee forced him to leave and then followed him down the street yelling,  “You’re the guy with the hat. You’re the Jew. You’re the Zionist. We don’t want you in our coffee shop. Get out.” As Mr. Radice walked away, three men followed him, and he heard them calling him “Jew” and “Zionist.”

The federal lawsuit notes that, on the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel, the Jerusalem Coffee House announced two new drinks: “Iced In Tea Fada,” an obvious reference to “intifada.” It also introduced as drink, “Sweet Sinwar,” an apparent reference to Yahya Sinwar, the former leader of Hamas who orchestrated the massacre. It also alleges that the coffee house’s exterior side wall displays inverted red triangles, a symbol of violence against Jews that has been spray-painted on Jewish homes and synagogues in anti-Semitic attacks.

Under Title II, the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division can seek to force changes in how the coffee shop must remedy alleged discriminatory conduct. In the meantime, the shop will face demands for civil damages in the private lawsuit.

While customers appear undisturbed by drinks named after a mass murderer, the shop itself is likely to find what is coming a bit harder to swallow. It is now facing litigation on two fronts over the treatment of Jewish customers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 15:25

Four Plead Guilty In $550 Million USAID Bribery Scheme

Four men have pleaded guilty to a $550 million US Agency for International Development (USAID) bribery scheme, which resulted in 14 contracts being improperly awarded to companies involved in the fraud, the Department of Justice announced in a June 12 statement. 

The U.S. Agency for International Development logo is covered with black tape in Washington on Feb. 7, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

• Robert Watson, 57, USAID contracting officer living in Maryland pleaded guilty to bribing a public official. 

• Walter Barnes, 56, of Maryland and owner of of Vistant, pleaded guilty to commit bribery of a public official and securities fraud.

• Darryl Britt, 64, of Florida and owner of Apprio, Inc. pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bribery of a public official.

• Paul Young, 62, of Maryland - the president of a subcontractor to both Vistant and Apprio, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bribery of a public official. 

Vistant and Apprio are small businesses which were certified under the US Small Business Administration's 8(a) contracting program - which helps small businesses deemed socially and economically disadvantaged.

The bribery scheme began in 2013 according to court documents, which claim that while Watson was a USAID contracting officer, he agreed to take bribes from Britt in exchange for using his position at USAID to award contracts to Apprio - for which Vistant was a subcontractor in one of the awards.

After Apprio became ineligible for contracts with USAID, Vistant moved up and became the subcontractor for USAID projects awarded through Watson's influence between 2018 and 2022. 

Both Vistant and Apprio have "greed to admit criminal liability," and "engaging in a conspiracy to commit bribery of a public official and securities fraud," according to the DOJ. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, during the scheme, Watson is alleged to have received bribes from Britt and Barnes that were often concealed by passing the funds through Young.

“Britt and Barnes also regularly funneled bribes to Watson, including cash, laptops, thousands of dollars in tickets to a suite at an NBA game, a country club wedding, downpayments on two residential mortgages, cellular phones, and jobs for relatives,” the DOJ said.

“The bribes were also often concealed through electronic bank transfers falsely listing Watson on payroll, incorporated shell companies, and false invoices. Watson is alleged to have received bribes valued at more than approximately $1 million as part of the scheme.”

All four individuals are scheduled to be sentenced at various dates between July and October. Watson is facing a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison, with the other three individuals facing a prison term of up to five years.

”The defendants sought to enrich themselves at the expense of American taxpayers through bribery and fraud,” the head of the Justice Department’s criminal division, Matthew R. Galeotti, said. “Their scheme violated the public trust by corrupting the federal government’s procurement process.”

The Epoch Times reached out to legal representatives for Barnes and Watson but did not receive a response by publication time. The Epoch Times was unable to reach legal representatives for Britt and Young.

Dismantling USAID

The Trump administration has been seeking to dismantle USAID.

In February, then-presidential adviser Elon Musk said President Donald Trump had agreed that USAID should be shut down.

“It became apparent that its [sic] not an apple with a worm it in,” Musk said. “What we have is just a ball of worms. You’ve got to basically get rid of the whole thing. It’s beyond repair.”

On March 10, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the State Department had canceled about 83 percent of USAID contracts.

“The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States,” he said on social media platform X.

The department decided to keep the remaining contracts, numbering roughly 1,000.

The administration also terminated or placed on leave most USAID employees while shutting down the agency headquarters, which was taken over by the Customs and Border Patrol employees.

On March 18, a federal judge ruled that Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency team likely violated the U.S. Constitution in seeking to dismantle the agency.

The judge ordered that access for USAID workers and contractors be reinstated and that no further actions related to terminating contracts or workers be taken.

The Trump administration is currently pushing a bill through Congress rescinding $9.4 billion in federal spending, including USAID programs.

The rescissions aim to cut “wasteful foreign assistance spending at the Department of State and USAID and through other international assistance programs,” according to a May 28 letter sent to Trump by Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget.

“These rescissions would eliminate programs that are antithetical to American interests, such as funding the World Health Organization, LGBTQI+ activities, ‘equity’ programs, radical Green New Deal-type policies, and color revolutions in hostile places around the world,” the letter stated.

On June 12, the House of Representatives passed the bill. It now goes to the Senate.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 15:05

Interior Department Announces $200 Billion LNG Supply Agreements With Japan

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. companies have finalized sales agreements with Japanese power generation giant JERA Co. Inc. for it to purchase up to 5.5 million tons per year of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Department of the Interior (DOI) said in a June 11 statement.

A liquefied natural gas tanker arrives at a gas storage station in Chiba prefecture, Japan, on April 6, 2009. STR/JIJI Press/AFP via Getty Images

The four 20-year agreements, which are projected to “support more than 50,000 U.S. jobs and add more than $200 billion to U.S. GDP according to S&P Global analysis, underscore President Trump’s efforts to unleash American LNG production and the significant role the U.S. LNG industry plays in strengthening the U.S. economy and bolstering global energy security,” the DOI said.

JERA’s deal with NextDecade Corporation, Commonwealth LNG, Sempra Infrastructure, and Cheniere Marketing LLC involves procuring LNG from the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The finalization of the deal was announced by JERA, the U.S. companies, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

In a June 12 statement, JERA said the companies offer LNG at competitive prices and with flexible contract terms. The value of these transactions exceeds JERA’s total equity investment in the United States, currently $6 billion.

JERA’s existing operations in the United States include LNG procurement contracts for 3.5 million tons per year with Freeport LNG and Cameron LNG, and a 1 million ton per year agreement with Venture Global CP2.

JERA’s recent decision to buy up to 5.5 million tons of LNG annually from the United States is a “message to the world that American LNG is back thanks to President Trump.”

“We’re leading on the world stage,” Burgum said.

“America is no longer begging for foreign energy—we’re producing it cleaner, smarter, better, and more reliably than the rest of the world.”

Under the Trump administration, several steps have been taken to boost the U.S. energy sector, including supporting LNG exports.

An LNG tanker is guided by tug boats at the Cheniere Sabine Pass LNG export unit in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, on April 14, 2022. Marcy de Luna/Reuters

On Feb. 14, President Donald Trump issued an executive order creating the National Energy Dominance Council. The council is tasked with advising the president on “strategies to achieve energy dominance by improving the processes for permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, and transportation across all forms of American energy.”

On May 2, the DOI said it planned to revise an offshore rule from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management that would “massively cut costs and red tape” linked to the current process.

The updated rule will “free up billions of dollars for American producers to use to lease, explore, drill, and produce oil and gas in the Gulf of America while protecting American taxpayers against high-risk decommission liabilities,” the department said.

On May 19, the Trump administration announced it would end a Biden-era pause on LNG export approvals, arguing that higher exports benefit the United States by supporting allies and boosting the domestic economy.

LNG Exports

Last month, the Department of Energy (DOE) said it had made several key findings related to U.S. LNG export capability.

In December 2024, the agency published a study on LNG exports and invited public comment through March 20.

After taking into account the study and public comments, the DOE found that the United States has a “robust natural gas supply that is sufficient to meet growing levels of exports while minimizing impacts to domestic prices.”

Boosting LNG exports was also identified as having “no discernible impact” on global greenhouse gas emissions.

“President Trump was given a mandate to unleash American energy dominance, and that includes U.S. LNG exports,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a May 19 statement. “The facts are clear: expanding America’s LNG exports is good for Americans and good for the world.”

According to a March 27 analysis by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States remained the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024, exporting 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG.

In an April 3 analysis, the EIA said it expects American LNG exports to “continue growing, driven by the start-up of three new facilities: Plaquemines LNG (Phases 1 and 2), Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, and Golden Pass LNG.”

“These facilities have a combined nominal export capacity of 5.3 Bcf/d (up to 6.3 Bcf/d peak capacity) and will expand the existing U.S. LNG export capacity by almost 50 percent once these projects become fully operational,” the agency said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 14:45

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May, up 0.75% from April’s preliminary pace and down 0.74%% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat larger YOY % decline, reflecting this May’s lower business day count relative to last May’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by just 1.0% from a year earlier. By region SF median sales prices should be virtually flat from a year ago in the West, down by about 1% in the South, up about 4% in the Midwest, and up about 5% in the Northeast.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release May Existing Home sales on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 AM. Last year, the NAR reported sales in May 2024 at 4.06 million SAAR.

NHTSA Tweaks Robotaxi Rules To Unleash "Rapid Innovation"

What a week for the electric vehicle space in America.

First, President Trump publicly mended ties with Elon Musk, calling him a "friend" just a week after their viral feud. Then came the policy hammer: Trump signed three congressional resolutions dismantling California's EV mandate and terminating the federal clean vehicle credit. Musk? Unfazed. With Tesla's dominance in the EV industry and rivals like Rivian and Lucid on life support, this could be the final chapter (explained by Musk one year ago) in the multi-year EV price war, leaving Tesla as the last one standing. 

With the current events out of the way, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has updated its exemption process under the Automated Vehicle (AV) Framework to accelerate the safe deployment of vehicles with Automated Driving Systems (ADS). The current exemption process (Part 555) was built for legacy vehicles and has proven too slow and rigid for the unique challenges of ADS-equipped vehicles.

What's changing:

• Streamlined Exemptions: NHTSA will expedite exemptions for ADS-equipped vehicles to keep pace with rapid innovation and ensure safety technologies can be tested and deployed faster.

• Enhanced Guidance: New application instructions will help manufacturers provide better information upfront, reducing back-and-forth delays.

• Flexible Oversight: NHTSA will move away from a one-size-fits-all approach and adopt more dynamic, adaptive oversight throughout the lifecycle of AV exemptions.

Full NHTSA Memo:

The move to support AVs comes just days before Tesla officially rolls out its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. 

In a post on X, Musk wrote earlier this week that the current plan is for the robotaxi launch to take place on Sunday.

"We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift," he said. 

Tentatively, June 22.

We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift.

First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 11, 2025

On Tuesday, Tesla's self-driving robotaxis were spotted on the streets of Austin. 

HOLY CRAP ITS A #ROBOTAXI!!@SawyerMerritt @WholeMarsBlog @DirtyTesLa @niccruzpatane pic.twitter.com/slfAsu0AQl

— Terrapin Terpene Col (@TerrapinTerpene) June 10, 2025

Also, in France...

I had a chance to see the Tesla Cybercab unveiled in Paris, France. pic.twitter.com/IZ2AveM5JC

— M. Brandon Lee | THIS IS TECH TODAY (@thisistechtoday) June 12, 2025

We shared with ZeroHedge Pro Subs a Goldman note at the start of the week that shows the AV rideshare market is poised to enter hypergrowth... 

Pro Subs can read the full note here .... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 14:25

Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.

The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.

The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).

Click on graph for larger image.

The number of salesperson's licenses started increasing again in 2014 (after house prices bottomed), and peaked again in early 2024 (ignoring weird pandemic distortion).

The number of salesperson's licenses is down 1.4% year-over-year. 

Brokers' licenses are off 21% from the peak and are still slowly declining (down 2.3% year-over-year).

Middle East War: Next Steps For Israel And Will Iran Blockade The Straits Of Hormuz

By John Kemp, author of KempEnergy.com

The United States has partially distanced itself from Israel’s military operation characterising the strikes as a “unilateral action” and emphasising that the United States was “not involved”. It is likely the United States had some degree of foreknowledge of the operation. “Israeli officials said that Netanyahu signed orders authorizing the attack on Monday. He spoke on the phone with Trump that same day,” according to the Washington Post. It seems very likely that the issue was discussed in at least general terms during the call on June 9. In the following days, the United States had taken steps to reduce its exposure to retaliation in the days leading up to the strike by reducing its diplomatic and military footprint in the region.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) also issued an unusually specific warning on June 11 to vessels in the region: “UKMTO has been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners. Vessels are advised to transit the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Straits of Hormuz with caution.” Give the extent of intelligence sharing and diplomatic between Israel and the United States and between the United States and the United Kingdom and the other European allies, some degree of foreknowledge is very likely. The diplomatic moves and vessel warnings strongly indicate the United States had significant prior knowledge of the operation even if Israel did not share precise about the timing or specific targets and operations plan.

It is unlikely Israel formally requested U.S. support or the United States formally gave the greenlight to the operation to enable the United States to maintain some plausible deniability. But Israel will only have felt confident to proceed if it believed the United States and its European allies would eventually, tacitly and retrospectively support the operation, especially by taking steps to constrain Iran’s retaliation.

The United States position on the strikes remains ambiguous for the time being. By partially distancing itself from the operation, the United States seems keen to portray the conflict as bilateral between Israel and Iran, trying to avoid counter strikes against U.S. personnel, assets and interests in the region, and thereby limiting Iran’s options for retaliation. But the United States has not condemned the operation and it is likely to provide support to Israel to help the country defend itself from the inevitable retaliation. For the time being, the United States and its European allies are characterising their involvement and support to Israel as defensive rather than offensive in nature. The intention appears to be limit further escalation and leave space for further diplomatic negotiations to end the immediate hostilities and resume talks about the nuclear programme.

In response to the attacks, Iran is likely to end cooperation with the International Atomatic Energy Agency (IAEA) and suspend or withdraw from the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Iran’s government has threatened multiple times in the past it would respond to any attack on its nuclear facilities by ending its adherence to the NPT and is unlikely to see any benefit from remaining within the NPT framework while under attack. Iran will see withdrawal as a high-profile symbolic move as well as a means to impose diplomatic costs on the United States and its European allies for supporting Israel.

Iran is likely to suspend or end nuclear negotiations with the United States and European Powers (the United Kingdom, France and Germany) seeing little advantage in continuing the talks. From Iran’s perspective, the purpose of the talks was to avert a direct military strike on the enrichment facilities and other military and state targets. Iran is unlikely to agree to resume negotiations unless it receives a clear assurance from the United States that it can and will restrain Israel from further military operations.

AIR STRIKES AND DIPLOMACY

The relationship between the U.S./European military and diplomatic approaches to Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme and other destabilising activities also remains ambiguous. For now, the military approach has taken primacy over the diplomatic one. Scheduled negotiations have already been cancelled. Israel has long argued diplomatic negotiations would not reach a satisfactory conclusion and only military action would prevent Iran from enriching uranium and having the potential to develop nuclear weapons in future. In some senses, strategy has shifted from the diplomatic track to the military one.

But some advocates of military action will likely argue military and diplomatic approaches can be pursued simultaneously. Negotiations while Iran is under fire are more likely to secure an ambitious agreement on terms favourable to Israel and the United States. From this perspective, a weakened Iran can be forced to make greater concessions to preserve what remains of its military capability and ensure the survival of the state. Iran can be confronted with the alternative of accepting an agreement that is unfavourable but at least ends the military action, or refusing a deal and continued bombing. Israel’s military action can be seen as creating leverage and pursuing the hard-line negotiating strategy popularised by in The Art of the Deal ghostwritten for U.S. President Donald Trump.

Israel’s military action also creates an alternative to the diplomatic process and an alternative to enforcement of any future agreement through sanctions. The alternative to a negotiated agreement is likely to be sustained and periodically renewed military operations targeting Iran’s enrichment and missile building facilities and the possible escalation to other military and state targets. If the attacks are severe enough and repeated often enough, they may arrest or reverse Iran’s enrichment activities even in the absence of an agreement. If an agreement is eventually reached, Israel has created a precedent for responding to any non-compliance by using military force rather than economic sanctions.

The Trump administration’s initial response to Israel’s military action has preserved some ambiguity and ensured some limited diplomatic distance but it is likely that it will have to resolve the ambiguity fairly quickly. The Trump administration will have to decide whether or not to embrace Israel’s strategy of military operations as a substitute for diplomacy or coercive negotiations under fire in the hope of securing a favourable resolution to the long-term standoff over Iran’s nuclear activities. Israel’s operation has created a krisis in the sense used by the ancient Greeks, a moment when the Trump administration will be forced to choose. Some members of the Trump administration are likely to welcome the pressure to reach a decision while others may resent the fact Israel has forced the president’s hand and limited his options.

ESCALATION DOMINANCE

Iran’s options for retaliating against Israel remain limited and constrain its response. Drones launched from Iran fly too slowly and travel too far to be much of a threat to Israel. Ballistic missiles fly faster and are harder to intercept but Iran’s missiles are too inaccurate and the payloads are too small to do much damage or hit targets with precision. Iran’s carefully cultivated allies in the Axis of Resistance including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad government in Syria and Hamas in Gaza have all been neutralised and are in no position to fight proxy conflicts against Israel on behalf of Iran.

Israel’s repeated attacks on targets in Iran (assassinations, bombings and air strikes over multiple years) have proved Israel’s intelligence services have thoroughly penetrated Iran’s state apparatus enabling the precise identification of targets.

Iran has also proved unable to defend its airspace. The country’s air defences have long been seen as inadequate, outdated and ineffective. The previous round of Israeli air strikes in 2024 specifically targeted Iran’s limited air defence capabilities and degraded them even further. They cleared the corridor for further air strikes and were specifically intended to reduce the risks of further and more ambitious operations in future. In some ways, the current military operation in 2025 and the previous one in 2024 could be characterised as a double tap, an initial operation designed to create conditions for an even more devastating follow up.

Israel successfully de-risked the military operation in advance both militarily and diplomatically. Iran’s air defences have been degraded by previous air strikes. The United States and its European allies have committed themselves to defending Israel from Iran’s retaliation since the first round of military exchanges in 2024. Israel’s intelligence services have thoroughly penetrated Iran’s military and state apparatus allowing them to operate freely within the country and creating a climate of paranoia. Israel has secured almost unconditional diplomatic support from the United States under the current administration and significant if not unconditional support from the most important European governments.

As a result, Israel has successfully achieved escalation dominance over Iran which has emboldened Israel and to some extent the United States to pursue a hardline strategy in recent years. In retrospect, Iran’s lack of escalation options was revealed by the lack of an effective response when Revolutionary Guards Commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the United States in Iraq in 2020. Iran proved unwilling and/or unable to threaten escalation or restore deterrence after the assassination of Soleimani and a string of other high-profile state figures.

Since then, Iran has proved unable or unwilling to support its allies in the Axis of Resistance, standing by impotently as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Assad government were neutralised by Israel. As Israel has moved steadily up the escalation ladder, Iran’s lack of good response options has become increasingly obvious. Iran’s weakness has been revealed by its inability to impose significant costs in response to attacks on leading personnel and facilities. Despite hardline rhetoric from senior government figures, Iran has increasingly been seen as a paper tiger.

Iran’s top leadership have been revealed as very risk averse and lacking good options to respond. Top leaders have tried hard to avoid open state-to-state conflict with Israel and the United States to focus on ensuring the survival of the state. But it has fallen into the use it or lose it trap. Conservatism and unwillingness to risk conflict has led to the steady loss of allies, destruction of defensive capabilities and narrowing policy options. Israel’s strategy has become bolder as Iran’s weakness has been revealed.

Until recently, Iran’s military and diplomatic strategy centred on creating defence in depth – moving the frontline of conflict into neighbouring states (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian areas and Yemen) and away from the homeland. With the exception of Yemen, all those Iranian allies have been neutralised. For the last decade, however, Israel’s shadow war has progressively moved the conflict onto Iran’s own territory through the assassination of leading nuclear scientists and other military and intelligence figures. The exchange of missile and drone attacks in 2024 moved the conflict into the open and showed that it would no longer be restricted to covert actions and proxy conflicts but had moved into a homeland-to-homeland phase in which Israel and not Iran had the upper hand.

THREATS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Oil market participants have long warned Iran could respond to any conflict by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. For the reasons discussed above, this threat was never very credible and has become less credible over time. Israel and the United States have increasingly held and demonstrated escalation dominance over Iran.

In theory, Iran could halt tanker traffic in the Strait for a short period by attacking or threatening vessels transiting the narrow waters at the entrance to the Gulf. But the most likely response is that the United States and its allies would organise an armed convoying system with U.S. and allied warships escorting tankers. Once convoys were in place, an attack would bring Iran into direct conflict with the United States - a conflict Iran’s leaders have revealed they are anxious to avoid by their prior behavior.

The UKMTO warning to vessels in the area on June 11 in advance of Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has significantly reduced the risk of immediate retaliation by clearing the area of all but necessary shipping and ensuring the remaining vessels have been on high alert. The United States has also sought to discourage an immediate Iranian attack on tanker traffic by partially distancing itself from Israel’s military operation. The United States has created some diplomatic space for Iran to retaliate directly against Israel while avoiding attacks on tanker traffic that would risk drawing Israel’s western allies into open conflict with Iran. This is a diplomatic fiction, but possibly a useful one, and the United States may hope Iran’s risk averse leaders are eager to accept.

For similar reasons, Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s attack on Iran, attempting to insulate its own oil installations and exports from Iran’s retaliation. Given their risk aversion and current isolation, Iran’s government and military are unlikely to repudiate that rhetorical support by attacking tankers carrying crude from Saudi Arabia or any of the other Gulf producers.

In theory, Iran’s top leaders could escalate the conflict by temporarily blocking the Strait, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices, and hope the resulting threat of severe economic damage causes the United States and its allies to restrain Israel and make concessions. But that high-risk escalatory strategy would be out of character and seems unlikely for the time being unless the top leaders in Iran conclude their survival is under threat.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 14:05

Waste Of The Day: Video Game Conservation

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The word “conservation” usually applies to wildlife or the environment, but in 2011, the federal government spent $113,277 on a conservation survey of 6,900 video games. The grant to the International Center for the History of Electronic Games would be worth $161,573 today.

That’s according to the “Wastebook” reporting published by the late U.S. Senator Dr. Tom Coburn. For years, these reports shined a white-hot spotlight on federal frauds and taxpayer abuses. 

Coburn, the legendary U.S. Senator from Oklahoma, earned the nickname "Dr. No" by stopping thousands of pork-barrel projects using the Senate rules. Projects that he couldn't stop, Coburn included in his oversight reports.   

Coburn's Wastebook 2011 included 100 examples of outrageous spending worth nearly $7 billion, including the quarters eaten by arcade games.

Key facts: The Institute of Library and Museum Services awarded the grant to examine video games and “determine the current condition of both the physical artifacts and their virtual content.”

The International Center for the History of Electronic Games is part of the Strong Museum of Play in Rochester, New York. It “collects, studies, and interprets video games, other electronic games, and related materials and the ways in which electronic games are changing how people play, learn, and connect with each other, including across boundaries of culture and geography.”

The two-year project took screenshots and video captures of games made before 2005 using “best practice conservation” techniques and wrote “maintenance manuals” to preserve the games in the future.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor payments with the world's largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Supporting quote: After Coburn called out the grant as wasteful spending, the museum responded with an argument that  “Video games are influencing society just as much as novels did 200 years ago or movies did 100 years ago … Despite this recent criticism, we pledge to continue, and even to increase, our preservation efforts in the future.”

Summary: Playing an arcade game like Pac-Man or Space Invaders is only supposed to cost 25 cents, not over $100,000.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 13:25

"Go After The Scum Of The Earth" - Al-Qaeda Leader Urges Followers To Assassinate Trump, Vance, Musk, Rubio, Hegseth Over Gaza War

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

The leader of al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch is urging fellow Islamists in the United States to assassinate President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, tech billionaire Elon Musk, and other U.S. leaders, calling them “scum of the earth and its greatest criminals.”

In a chilling video message that appeared online Saturday, Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki encouraged his followers to assassinate the leaders because they support Israel’s war against Hamas.

“There are no red lines after what happened and is happening to our people in Gaza,” al-Awlaki said in his first propaganda video since taking over the terror group last year. “Reciprocity is legitimate.”

“I call upon every Muslim in the infidel, criminal, and arrogant United States … I am saying to all of them revenge, revenge!” he declared.

Al-Awlaki stressed that it doesn’t matter whether the terrorists are “Arab, American or other descent, what matters is that should be Muslims whose prophet is Muhammed.”  He correctly noted that there are roughly 4.5 million Muslims in the United States.

The al Qaeda leader went on to caution his followers hatch their assassination plots in secret.

“Do not consult anyone about killing infidel Americans,” he said, before specifying who should be targeted.

“Go after the scum of the earth and its greatest criminals: This is Trump and his vice president; this is Elon Musk, his advisor; these are his secretary of State and his secretary of Defense,” al-Awlaki said.

As the terrorist said these words, images of Trump (alongside Archbishop Elpidophoros of the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America), Vance, Musk (with images of Musk’s business logos), Secretary of State Marco Rubio (with Ash Wednesday ashes on his forehead), and Secretary of State Pete Hegseth flashed across the screen.

Al-Awlaki encouraged his followers in the United States to also “go after their families” and “all those who have any ties or are close to the politicians in the White House.”

The half-hour propaganda video also included calls for lone-wolf terrorists to assassinate leaders in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf Arab states over the war.

Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch, known by the acronym AQAP, is considered the most dangerous branch of al-Qaeda, according to the Times of Israel.  

Al-Awlaki already has a $6 million US bounty on his head, as Washington says he “has publicly called for attacks against the United States and its allies.” He replaced AQAP leader Khalid al-Batarfi, whose death was announced by the group in 2024.

AQAP seizing onto the Israel-Hamas war follows the efforts of Yemen’s Houthi rebels to do the same. The Iranian-backed group has launched missile attacks on Israel and targeted commercial vessels moving through the Red Sea corridor, as well as American warships.

The Trump administration launched an intense campaign of strikes on the Houthis, which only ended before the president’s recent trip to the Middle East.

It is estimated that AQAP has between 3,000 and 4,000 active fighters and passive members. The terrorists reportedly raise money by robbing banks, smuggling weapons, counterfeiting currencies and conducting ransom operations.

In his video message, Al-Awalaki praised those who have carried out antisemitic terror attacks on civilians.

“Do not leave a single safe place for Jews — just as they have not left any homes, shelters, or respite for the Palestinians,” he said. “Even hospitals are being bombed over the heads of the sick and wounded, and the heads of the women, children and the elderly. Take revenge.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 12:35

DNC Votes To Invalidate Elections Of David Hogg, Another Vice-Chair

Weeks after damaging undercover video revealed that even fellow Democrats don't like Vice Chair David Hogg, the 25-year-old gun control activist is out. 

David Hogg speaks during the Fast Company Innovation Festival 2024 at BMCC Tribeca PAC in New York City on Sept. 17, 2024. Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images for Fast Company

In a vote of 294-99, members of the DNC overturned the Feb. 1 election that put Hogg in his seat - along with Pennsylvania State Rep. Malcom Kenyatta, and authorized new elections in the coming days. 

The previous election was called into question by the DNC's Kalyn Free (Oklahoma), who said the organization's structure made it "mathematically impossible" for a woman to win. 

Math expert Kalyn Free

As the Epoch Times notes further, there were two empty vice chair slots, and the DNC’s complex gender parity statutes required that the first slot be filled by a man; the second could be any gender. Instead of holding two separate elections, the DNC placed all five candidates on one ballot, put both seats on that ballot, and combined the results.

This gave the two men on the ballot a mathematical advantage over the three female candidates, critics said. Kenyatta received 289 votes, and Hogg received 214.

The DNC will now hold do-over elections with the same five candidates via electronic balloting. The first election, which must appoint a man according to DNC rules, will be held June 12–15. The second, which may be any gender, will be held on June 15–17.

Hogg recently garnered controversy within the party in his role as vice chair after he threatened in April to hold primaries against “asleep at the wheel” members of his party through his Leaders We Deserve PAC.

In response to Hogg’s push, DNC Chair Ken Martin said that the DNC needed to be a “referee” with its officials remaining neutral on primary contests.

“If you want to challenge incumbents, you’re more than free to do that, but just not as an officer of the DNC, because our job is to be neutral arbiters. We can’t be both the referee and also the player at the same time,” Martin said.

Hogg alleged that the decision to overturn the election was a convenient way to vote him out of leadership. He acknowledged that the election result was challenged before he announced his shakeup of the Democratic Party, but said “the consensus” among members he spoke to was that the challenge would be ignored.

On June 8, audio from a Zoom call with Martin criticizing Hogg was leaked to Politico. In the recording, Martin accuses Hogg of impeding his leadership, expresses frustration with his job, and seems to choke up at the end of the recording.

Hogg was accused of leaking the audio, and in response, he published screenshots of text messages from a Politico reporter asking him to comment on the leak, which purportedly indicated that he was not the source of the leak.

Over the last few weeks, Hogg also appeared in a Project Veritas video where he criticized Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for her stock trading activity.

Travis Fri, 06/13/2025 - 12:00

Meet SharpLink, The "MicroStrategy Of Ether"

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Sports betting platform SharpLink Gaming has acquired 176,271 Ether for $463 million, becoming the world’s largest publicly traded holder of ETH.

In a Friday announcement, the Nasdaq-listed company said the Ether acquisition was funded through a combination of private placement and at-the-market equity sales, including $79 million raised since May 30. The average acquisition price came in at $2,626 per coin.

The company said over 95% of its ETH is now deployed in staking and liquid staking platforms, earning yield while contributing to Ethereum’s network security.

“This is a landmark moment for SharpLink and for public company adoption of digital assets,” said Rob Phythian, CEO of SharpLink Gaming, adding that the company now treats ETH as its “primary treasury reserve asset.”

“MicroStrategy of Ether”

SharpLink’s move mirrors Strategy’s Bitcoin-buying strategy, but is centered on Ethereum, making it the first public company to adopt ETH as its core treasury reserve asset.

SharpLink (SBET) is the first Nasdaq-listed firm to adopt an ETH-based treasury model, aiming to offer shareholders “meaningful economic exposure to ETH,” the company said.

 “SharpLink’s bold ETH strategy represents a pivotal milestone and innovative approach to the institutional adoption of Ethereum,” SharpLink chairman and Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin said in the announcement.

“By allocating significant capital to ETH and deploying it in network activities such as staking, SharpLink is both contributing to Ethereum’s long-term security and trust properties while earning additional ETH for that work,” he added.

Who holds more Ethereum than SharpLink?

While SharpLink has become the largest publicly traded holder of Ether globally, some entities are still holding more ETH.

According to Arkham data, the Ethereum Foundation now holds 214,129 ETH ($594 million) in its treasury.

Crypto holdings by the Ethereum Foundation as of June 13, 2025. Source: Arkham

Some crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) providers like BlackRock also hold a significantly bigger amount of Ether, though on behalf of clients. According to BlackRock data, the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF held roughly 1.7 million ETH as of Thursday, worth around $4.5 billion.

Controversy over SharpLink’s ETH strategy

SharpLink’s ETH strategy has not come without controversy. The company’s share price rocketed more than 400% after its May 27 ETH treasury announcement, as Cointelegraph reported. 

Following the announcement of an S‑3 SEC filing earlier this week, shares plunged by about 73% in after‑hours trading on Thursday, dropping from $32.53 to below $8 before partially rebounding, according to Google Finance. The sharp sell‑off was spurred by a misunderstanding: The filing allowed for the potential resale of nearly 58.7 million shares from PIPE participants; it was not an actual sale. 

SharpLink chairman Lubin clarified that this was a routine regulatory procedure, not insider unloading.

Source: Joseph Lubin

The purchase follows a broader trend of corporate crypto treasury adoption, echoing Strategy’s high-profile Bitcoin strategy, but placing Ether at the center of digital capital reserves.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 11:40

 US-Israeli Deception Gave Iran False Security Amid Washington Green Light

Fresh reporting as well as new Friday statements by President Trump reveal that the US and Israel practiced deceptive diplomacy, as Israeli and American officials worked together to convince Iran that nuclear negotiations were progressing.

Yet all the while an elaborate Israel attack on Iranian nuclear sites was being planned, and Tehran was given a false sense of security, and ill-prepared for its defense.

Axios has reported that Tel Aviv was given "a clear US green light" to start bombing, according to two unnamed Israeli officials. The previously widely reported 'split' and spat between Trump and Netanyahu was a public ruse.

"Two Israeli officials claimed to Axios that Trump and his aides were only pretending to oppose an Israeli attack in public — and didn’t express opposition in private," the report explained. "The goal, they say, was to convince Iran that no attack was imminent and make sure Iranians on Israel’s target list wouldn’t move to new locations."

Trump was even publicly advocating for diplomacy even up to within hours of the overnight attacks, which involved at least 200 Israeli warplanes, and drones.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has since publicly denied American involvement, but Trump has admitted that he was briefed on the major Israeli military operation. Trump has further indicated that US-supplied weapons were used against Iran. Meanwhile:

TRUMP SAYS IRAN OFFICIALS CALLING HIM TO DISCUSS SITUATION: NBC

Thus far, there's been no evidence of direct Pentagon involvement. But clearly, the Islamic Republic was lulled or tricked into believing that no Israeli strikes were actually imminent.

Per WSJ:

President Trump told The Wall Street Journal that he and his team were read in on Israel’s plans to attack Iran. Asked what kind of heads-up the U.S. got ahead of the attack, Trump said in a brief phone interview, "Heads-up? It wasn’t a heads-up. It was, we know what's going on."

Israel is seeking to both decapitate Iran's military leadership and completely destroy Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran has long maintained is for peaceful energy purposes. 

The great negotiator only engaged in deception as he prepared an attack on Iran pic.twitter.com/Ol222rH8UY

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 13, 2025

Given Tehran has vowed to continue its nuclear activities undeterred, despite damage at Natanz and other sites, more waves of Israeli attacks are likely. 

Israel's military has on Friday said it has begun to deploy reservists from different units to all combat areas nationwide in readiness for a potential Iranian military response.

Certainly, something was going on last night at The Pentagon...

Pure alpha right here https://t.co/mzcft20EAz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 13, 2025

The question remains: what next? So far, Iranian anti-air defenses have appeared almost non-existent. It's also unclear the degree to which Iran's air defenses and ballistic missile sites have already been destroyed or damaged.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 11:20

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.7% q/q saar and 1Q GDP is down one-tenth to -0.1% q/q saar. [June 13th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

The details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and left our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [June 5th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. [June 9th estimate]

NJ Rep. LaMonica McIver Hit With Federal Charges Over Clash At ICE Detention Facility, Faces 17 Years In Prison

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) was indicted on Tuesday for allegedly interfering with federal officers during a scuffle outside an immigration detention facility in Newark, last month.

US Attorney Alina Habba announced on X that a Newark federal grand jury had returned a three-count indictment charging McIver with “forcibly impeding and interfering with federal law enforcement officers.”

The congresswoman faces up to 17 years in prison for her aggressive conduct.

“This indictment has a maximum penalty of 8 years for Count One, an additional maximum penalty of 8 years for Count Two, and a maximum penalty of 1 year in prison for Count Three,” Habba said.

The incident happened during a protest on May 9 at the Delaney Hall detention center, a privately run facility under contract with ICE.  Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D) was arrested and charged with trespassing after entering the facility and refusing to leave.

An ugly confrontation ensued as several Democrat lawmakers surrounded Baraka in an attempt to shield the mayor from the ICE agents making the arrest.

An online video shows McIver,  a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, screaming at law enforcement officers as they tried to break through their blockade,  throwing punches and shoving the officers as they tried to regain control.

“After the Mayor was escorted outside the secured area, law enforcement officers made a second attempt to arrest him,” the Justice Department press release states.

At this time, someone in the crowd yelled ‘circle the mayor.’ McIver then faced the Mayor and placed her arms around him in an effort to prevent HSI from completing the arrest. During her continued attempts to thwart the arrest, McIver slammed her forearm into the body of one law enforcement officer and also reached out and tried to restrain that officer by forcibly grabbing him. McIver also used each of her forearms to forcibly strike a second officer.

In a statement posted on X, Habba said:

“While people are free to express their views for or against particular policies, they must not do so in a manner that endangers law enforcement and the communities those officers serve.”

In response, McIver repeated her assertion that she was “simply doing my job” and that the facts of the case “will expose these proceedings for what they are: a brazen attempt at political intimidation.”

“This indictment is no more justified than the original charges, and is an effort by Trump’s administration to dodge accountability for the chaos ICE caused and scare me out of doing the work I was elected to do, McIver said in a statement. “But it won’t work—I will not be intimidated. The facts are on our side, I will be entering a plea of not guilty, I’m grateful for the support of my community, and I look forward to my day in court.”

In a statement to Fox News, McIver’s attorney, Paul Fishman, dismissed the case as “political retaliation.”

“This prosecution is political retaliation against a dedicated public servant… We fully expect the Congresswoman’s exoneration,” he said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 11:00

MP Materials Rockets 17% After Trump Admin Mulls Prioritizing U.S. Based Rare Earth Projects

Yesterday MP Materials jumped as much as 17% to $29.96 —its highest intraday level since March—amid renewed government efforts to secure domestic rare earth supplies.

The Trump administration is drafting a plan to invoke Cold War-era powers under the Defense Production Act (DPA) to prioritize and fund rare earth projects deemed critical to national security, according to Bloomberg.

This includes financing for mining, processing, and downstream technologies to reduce U.S. dependence on China. A final strategy and timeline are still being developed.

MP Materials, the only domestic producer of rare earths, is expected to benefit significantly. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg is reportedly helping to secure additional funding for the Nevada-based company, which has already received millions from the Pentagon.

Bloomberg writes that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently told Congress that MP Materials “is a great example of a place where we can partner with industry,” while Feinberg is focused on sourcing rare earth supply.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called the situation “a wake-up call for America,” warning, “We are so exposed, right now — precariously exposed — to China’s grip on not just the mining, but the processing,” which Beijing dominates with 85% global control. He said the current U.S. stockpile is “massively insufficient” and may require billions in new investment.

Efforts have intensified since China restricted rare earth exports in April, pressuring U.S. stockpiles and supply chains for defense, automotive, and aerospace industries. At the National Energy Dominance Council, David Copley is leading efforts to coordinate proposals and funding options under the DPA and other tools.

The White House and Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment. MP Materials declined to comment.

MP is one of just a few U.S. based rare earth pure plays, alongside names like USAR and UUUU.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 10:45

Five Questions Surrounding Israel's Unprecedented Strikes On Iran

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The answers will determine the course of this crisis...

Israel launched unprecedented strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets early Friday morning. This followed the latest US-Iranian nuclear talks stalling, continued speculation that Iran is secretly building nukes, and growing Israeli anxiety with the situation. From the looks of it, Israel decapitated the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC, yet Iran still vowed to retaliate.

The situation is fluid, but as of Friday morning Moscow time, there are five questions whose answers will determine the course of this crisis:

1. To What Extent Did The US Assist Israel?

Trump publicly distanced himself from Israel’s rapid lead-up to these unprecedented strikes, which followed his reported rift with Bibi, but Iranian policymakers have long believed that the US and Israel are iron-clad allies that always work together. Their assessment of the extent to which the US assisted Israel in these strikes will therefore determine the scope and scale of their retaliation. If they conclude that the US played a role, then American military assets in the region and elsewhere might be targeted.

2. What Will Be The Scale & Scope Of Iran’s Retaliation Look Like?

Building upon the above, Iran can either throw everything that it has at Israel if it senses that this is a pivotal moment in their decades-long rivalry or it can carry out a comparatively more restrained retaliation, though the latter might still be exploited as the pretext for follow-up strikes by Israel. Apart from targeting American military assets, Iran could also finally blockade the Strait of Hormuz like it’s long threatened to do, though that could also be exploited as the pretext for direct US military involvement.

3. Will Trump Resist Mission Creep?

Even if the US didn’t assist Israel, Iran shares this view, and American military assets aren’t targeted in its retaliation, Trump might still get dragged into the conflict if the “deep state” convinces him to authorize air defense support of Israel and/or joint offensive operations with it after Iran’s retaliation. He’d risk irreparably splitting his base with all that entails for his movement’s future if he does, particularly if this results in the US’ involvement in a major and costly regional war, so he’d do well to resist mission creep.

4. Why Couldn’t Iran Better Defend Itself?

Initial reports suggest that Israel really did indeed hit Iran very hard, thus raising questions about Iran’s air defense systems. Likewise, there are also questions about why it didn’t preempt Israel’s attack amidst the rapid lead-up in recent days, especially considering how often its representatives talked about Iran supposedly being ready to launch “Operation True Promise 3” at any time. Iran is now weakened and Israel won’t be caught by surprise so the odds of total victory are less in Iran’s favor that before.

5. What Comes Next If A Major Regional War Is Somehow Avoided?

A major regional war can be avoided if Iran doesn’t significantly retaliate against Israel (though a possibly choreographed show might follow), Israel is humbled by Iran’s outmatched retaliation (which the US doesn’t significantly help it defend against), or Iran absorbs Israel’s second blow and doesn’t retaliate. If the nuclear talks aren’t resumed and swiftly lead to a deal on the US’ terms, then a “cold peace” might follow characterized by intense hybrid warfare (sanctions, terrorism, Color Revolution plots) against Iran.

Israel sought to eliminate what it considers to be the existential threat that Iran poses, but the damage that Israel reportedly inflicted on Iran could pose an existential threat to Iran if Israel exploits the aftermath through more strikes and/or hybrid warfare. These zero-sum mutual perceptions of existential threats greatly raise the stakes of this crisis. If Iran doesn’t deliver a knockout blow to Israel (and survive the inevitable retaliation), then Israel might gain the upper hand over it unless Iran soon builds nukes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 10:25

'Tariff Derangement Sydrome' Remains As UMich Sentiment Surges In Early June

Just days after CPI disappointed the the Trump Tariff infation fear-mongers once again and a month since the UMich survey found that "Women, Democrats, & Low-Income Americans Are Out Of Their TDS-Addled Minds", and one week after Goldman finally called out the idiocy of the UMich survey, slamming its "partisanship" and the "sample design break starting from June 2024"...

... not to mention that it has been chronically wrong, warning that "Michigan inflation expectations have already risen even more than in 2022 and this time long-term expectations have risen sharply too, all before tariffs have even meaningfully boosted consumer prices" while "technicalities have exaggerated the increase in the Michigan [inflation] survey, as other survey measures and market-implied inflation compensation have not risen much at horizons beyond the next year", moments ago the preliminary UMich survey for the month of June saw sharp revisions to the prelim prints, to wit:

• The headline Sentiment print jumped dramatically from its lowest since May 1980 - to 60.5, well above the median estimate of 53.6

• The Current Conditions print also surged from 58.9 to 63.7, well above expectations.

• The Expectations print spiked to 58.4 from 47.9 and above the median estimate of 49.7

That is the biggest MoM jump in the Headline Sentiment index since January 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region.

Source: Bloomberg

Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed.

Inflation Expectations finally gave way to reality with 1Y expectations falling from 6.6% to 5.1%...

Source: Bloomberg

However, 'Tariff Derangement Syndrome', as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it, was very evident as Democrats' inflation expectations surged even higher to a ridiculous 10.1% over the next year!

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term inflation expectation also fell overall but both Independents and Democrats 

Source: Bloomberg

Women remain far more concerned about inflation than men...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, its the Democratic-run states that are seeing the highest level of inflation, so perhaps they're on to something...

One more for fun - comparing Democrats view of the inflationary outlook to the 'hard' inflationary data...

Source: Bloomberg

The percentage of UMich respondents making unsolicited negative comments about news they've heard on government economic policy remains just shy of record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

But, as we tweeted, this farcical data makes no sense...

Just when you thought UMich couldn't be bigger goalseeked garbage, it is:

Overall 1Yr inflation expectations drop even as Democrat, Republican and Independent inflation expectations all rise! pic.twitter.com/xaNwCDMzKr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 13, 2025

We look forward to UMich explaining that... did they change the weighting of Democrats' TDS-addled views? (and not tell anyone?)

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/13/2025 - 10:16