Britain "Doomed" Under Labour As Wealthy Scramble To "Get The Hell Out Of London", Ryanair Boss Warns

Authored by John-Paul Ford Rojas via ThisIsMoney.co.uk,

The UK is doomed under Labour, the boss of Ryanair has warned as he claimed wealthy people were scrambling to ‘get the hell out of London’ before being hit by a Budget tax raid.

Michael O’Leary said he had no faith in the Chancellor’s ability to restore growth and branded her tax policies ‘dumb’.

The comments came amid reports that Rachel Reeves is planning to target the wealthy with a mansion tax in the Budget later this month.

He told the Guardian: ‘The UK economy under the current leadership is doomed.'

‘The UK badly needs growth, but the way to deliver growth is through selective tax cuts… you are not going to grow the UK economy by taxing wealth or taxing air travel.’

Mr O’Leary’s comments add to a chorus of criticism of Labour from UK business leaders – following warnings about tax from the likes of Marks & Spencer boss Stuart Machin and Asda’s Allan Leighton.

Michael O'Leary branded Labour's policies 'dumb'

The Ryanair boss said: ‘I hold very little faith in Rachel Reeves or the current economic strategy of the Labour government.'

‘Rich people are fleeing… as they are trying to find low-fare flights to get the hell out of London before Rachel Reeves taxes their mansions, their income and inheritance.’

Mr O'Leary has also taken umbrage at Labour’s decision to hike air passenger duty – a tax on flights – and said further increases in the Budget would prompt the carrier to shift capacity to other countries with lower tax burdens such as Sweden or Italy.

He told Bloomberg: ‘She hasn’t a rashers how to deliver growth. She puts up employment taxes, puts up APD.’

Mr O’Leary said Ryanair had written to the Treasury describing the increase in the air tax as ‘the dumbest idea even you lot have come up with’.

He said that a further increase at the Budget would mean 10 per cent of Ryanair’s capacity, or about five million seats, is moved to lower tax countries.

‘Eventually even a dumb Labour government will work out that for an island on the periphery of Europe, the way to grow – and the way to increase tax revenue – is to get tourists onto the island first and then tax them,' he added.

‘The way to grow is not by increasing entry taxes, which is what APD is.’

Mr O’Leary made the comments as the airline revealed a surge in half-year profit amid a hike in fares. It was also helped by aircraft deliveries helping it fly more passengers.

The low-cost airline reported a pre-tax profit of £2.6 billion for the six months to the end of September, 40 per cent higher than the same period last year.

It flew 119 million passengers, 3 per cent more than last year

Average airfares rose by 13 per cent year on year to 58 euros (£50.90), Ryanair revealed, having spiked during the Easter period.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 09:00

Yields Spike After Treasury Refunding Unexpectedly Warns Bessent Considering "Increases To Future Auction Sizes"

Superficially, there were no surprises in the quantitative aspects of this morning's Treasury refunding announcement: as previewed earlier, the Treasury just announced a total quarterly refunding size of $125 billion, just as expected, and furthermore indicated it’s not looking to boost sales of notes and bonds "for at least the next several quarters", in a decision that will see the government increasingly rely on bills to fund the budget deficit. However, the big surprise was the announcement that "looking ahead, Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on evaluating trends in structural demand and assessing potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles." Translation: no bond auction increases for a few months, and then we blast off, and the bond market reacted appropriately sending 10Y yields to session highs. 

Here are the details.

In  its refunding statement Wednesday, the department said it anticipated keeping auction sizes unchanged for nominal notes and bonds “for at least the next several quarters.” That form language, which has been used since early last year, reflects the higher cost of issuing longer-dated securities compared with bills, which mature in up to a year.

Next week’s auctions of 3-, 10- and 30-year maturities will total $125 billion, the same amount going back to May last year. Dealers had widely expected the move, and most don’t see an increase in issuance of notes and bonds until mid-2026 or later to help finance federal deficits, which have declined slightly in part because of tariff revenue.

For next week’s refunding auctions, they will be made up of:

• $58 billion of 3-year notes on Nov. 10
• $42 billion of 10-year notes on Nov. 12
• $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Nov. 13

The balance of Treasury financing requirements over the quarter will be met with regular weekly bill auctions, cash management bills (CMBs), and monthly note, bond, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and 2-year Floating Rate Note (FRN) auctions.

The Treasury issuance forecast table below, which shows actual auction sizes for the August to October 2025 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the November 2025 to January 2026 quarter, is identical to the preview we posted earlier (see below), confirming no surprises.

As an aside, the Fed's rate cuts have pulled down yields on the shortest-dated US debt, making it more attractive for the Treasury to sell those maturities. While 10-year yields are currently a bit above 4%, bills due in 12 months are around 3.5%. That's why the Refunding statement said that while it "expects to maintain the offering sizes of benchmark bills into late-November" and to "implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during the month of December", thereafter, "by the middle of January 2026, Treasury anticipates increasing bill auction sizes based on expected fiscal outflows."

The share of bills compared with overall outstanding debt is set to rise unless the Treasury boosts longer-dated issuance. The ratio is on course to climb past 26% by the end of 2027, Citigroup estimates.

Last year, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee — a panel of dealers, investors and other market participants — recommended it average around 20% over time. As of September, the ratio was over 21% and will keep rising for the foreseeable future. 

But it's not just Bill sizes that will spike: here is the sentence that sent TSY yields spiking by 3 bps so far:

“Looking ahead, Treasury has begun to preliminarily consider future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on evaluating trends in structural demand and assessing potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles."

While dealers had expected the Treasury start laying the groundwork for an increase in sales of longer-dated obligations at some poin - given that the government continues to run historically large fiscal deficits, boosting the overall debt load - today's announcement by the Treasury came as a surprise. It shouldn't have: as securities sold during the record deficits of the pandemic era, in 2020 and 2021, come due in coming years, Treasury note sales would only suffice to repay what’s maturing, meanwhile the US deficit remains at $2 trillion and rising.

Some Wall Street firms have pushed off forecasts for when they expect boosts to longer-dated issuance, given how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled he prefers not to lock the government into higher borrowing costs at a time when bills are cheaper. And yet, that is precisely what he now intends to do in early 2026 based on today's announcement. 

This led to lots of confusion: in April, JPMorgan rates strategists expected officials to boost coupon sizes by this refunding announcement. But in the bank’s latest projection for when that would occur, ahead of Wednesday’s statement, that date had shifted to November 2026. Now JPM will have to adjust again. 

In a separate note, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee said current projections could "warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY 2027" to wit: 

In terms of issuance, the Committee recommended keeping nominal coupon sizes as well as TIPS issuance unchanged. The Committee discussed potential changes to coupon issuance in the future, and the timing thereof. Given the uncertainty of potential financing needs, the Committee was mixed on how Treasury should approach adjustments to its current forward guidance. The Committee believes that current projections could warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY2027

The committee in a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the current issuance mix appears to be near the “efficient frontier” while the Treasury’s move toward a higher share of T-bills in recent years somewhat reduced expected costs but also increased volatility, based on the committee’s refreshed Optimal Debt Model, one of many tools the Department uses to inform issuance decisions.

“While the current mix seems appropriate in a ‘Productivity Boom’ scenario, the other scenarios highlighted additional risks for Treasury,” TBAC wrote. “The Model suggests that a decrease in bill issuance, increase in belly issuance, and a decrease in bonds lowers volatility for a negligible cost increase in the adverse scenarios.”

Committee had an “extensive debate” around the tradeoff between solving for the lowest debt service costs versus limiting funding volatility, and how Treasury should think about risk tolerance and mitigation. When thinking about potential changes to coupon issuance in the future and timing, the Committee was mixed on how Treasury should approach adjustments to its current forward guidance.

Finally, the Refunding statement touched on the recent increase in Treasury buybacks, noting that in both the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon buckets, Treasury plans to conduct four operations over the refunding quarter, each for up to $2 billion.  In the other nominal coupon buckets, Treasury plans to conduct one liquidity support buyback of up to $4 billion. Treasury also plans to conduct two operations in the 1- to 10-year TIPS bucket, each for up to $750 million, and one operation for up to $500 million in the 10- to 30-year TIPS bucket. 

Treasury also anticipates that over the course of the upcoming quarter it will purchase up to $38 billion in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support and up to $25 billion in the 1-month to 2-year bucket for cash management purposes.

As announced at the last quarterly refunding, in the first half of 2026 Treasury plans to offer direct buyback access to a limited number of additional counterparties based on their participation in Treasury auctions. 

In response to the refunding statement's surprising notice of coming coupon increases, 10Y yields spiked not only to session highs, but are just shy of the highest level in the past week. 

Earlier:

Treasury Refunding Preview

The US Treasury announced it expects to borrow $569BN in privately-held net marketable debt in the Oct-Dec quarter down from the $590BN it projected for Q4 in July. The lower estimate is due to higher start of quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. The projection still assumes an end-Dec cash balance of $850BN, albeit some had been looking for this to increase to $900BN. Looking ahead to Q1 '26 (Jan-Mar), the Treasury expects to borrow $578BN, assuming an end-March cash balance of $850BN.

During the July-September 2025 quarter, the Treasury borrowed $1.058TN in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $891BN. In July 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $1.007TN and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $850BN. The $50BN difference in privately-held net marketable borrowing resulted primarily from the higher end-of- quarter cash balance and lower net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $10BN higher than announced in July.

Turning to the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, Newsquawk notes that for the refunding, the Treasury maintained guidance that it expects to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters; any change to this would be of note. However, Morgan Stanley expects current coupon sizes to remain steady until February 2027, with guidance expected to be maintained. Regarding TIPS, Morgan Stanley expects the Treasury will continue with incremental increases to the TIPS auction sizes, expecting the $19BN of 10yr TIPS re-opening auction to be maintained, with a $1BN increase to both the 5yr TIPS re-opening and the 10yr TIPS new issue.

We will have a look at the upcoming buyback operations too for any changes. The prior refunding saw the Treasury state in H1 2026, it plans to offer direct buyback access to a limited number of additional counterparties, based on their participation in Treasury auctions. Morgan Stanley "interpret this statement to mean that the additional eligible participants for buyback operations will be the largest participants in auctions by risk taken down".

One thing to bear in mind is the Fed's end of QT. From December 1st, the Fed will start to reinvest all maturing Treasury security holdings on its balance sheet, while it will continue to let mortgage-backed securities roll off the balance sheet; however, the payments will be reinvested into Treasury bills instead of MBS. Morgan Stanley writes that after QT ends, the Fed will deem an across-the-curve reinvestment strategy as most optimal, meaning more front-end UST demand relative to the status quo.

Providing the nominal coupon auction sizes are left unchanged as per guidance, this is what the auction sizes would look like.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:30

ADP Employment Report Shows Labor Market Rebound In October

Following the new weekly update of ADP's employment report showing a rebound to job additions after two straight month of declines, analysts expected a 30k rise in jobs for October's monthly report.

And analysts were right with ADP reporting 42k jobs added in October (better than expected)

Source: Bloomberg

Services added 32k jobs while Goods Producers added 9k...

Last month delivered a rebound from two months of weak hiring, but the bounce wasn't broad-based.

Education and health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth.

For the third straight month, employers shed jobs in professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality.

"Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year," according to Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced."

Small Businesses have also lost jobs for three straight months.

But, this overall rebound fits with the Revelio Labs monthly job growth data...

Source: Apollo

And a slight decline in job cut announcements (despite all the headlines)...

Source: Apollo

Finally, wage growth for job stayers and job changers was flat from September...

With females seeing higher gains across all age cohorts...

Hardly a major gain in jobs but its not a decline. Having said that, we find it hard to believe that The Fed will see this number and feel like another cut in December is not required.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:22

Futures Rebound From Session Lows As Government Shutdown Becomes Longest Ever

Welcome to day 36 of the government shutdown which officially makes it the longest shut down in history. Futures are trading moderately lower, following weaker Asian and European sessions, but well off session lows as Japan retraced nearly 50% of its losses during the session. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% having earlier slid far more following Tuesday’s 1.2% slump as technology shares dragged stocks lower globally; Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, also recovering most of their losses. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed with Semis weaker. Confirming just how dented upward momentum is, many of the larger Tech companies that reported last night are weaker this morning. Both Cyclicals and Defensives are mixed without reflecting which will outperform today. According to JPM, so far yesterday’s price action has yet to spill over to the US session and the view that a valuation-induced sell-off with Tech underperforming was a narrative that was forming. It may be the case that as the market looks to remove froth that we see Mag7 outperform the higher beta segments of TMT / AI. In overnight news, China banned foreign-made chips in state-funded data centers. Bond yields are unchanged, erasing an earlier and the USD is also flat. Commodities are poised for a rebound with WTI, Precious Metals, and Ags all higher. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP and ISM-Srvcs. With the shutdown in Washington leaving a vacuum in official data, the private ADP employment numbers out today will get more attention than usual.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed (Tesla +1.2%, Meta +0.3%, Apple -0.05%, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon -0.2%, Nvidia -0.7%)

• AMD (AMD) falls 4% after the chipmaker reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. While analysts are broadly positive, they note some issues with margins and the outlook. The stock has more than doubled this year.
• Arista Networks (ANET) slides 10% after the company’s forecast for adjusted gross margin in the fourth quarter fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Axon (AXON) drops 18% after the Taser maker reported disappointing third-quarter adjusted EPS and agreed to buy emergency-tech company Carbyne in a deal valuing the company at $625 million.
• Biohaven (BHVN) tumbles 44% as TD Cowen calls the FDA’s Vyglxia Complete Response Letter as “highly disappointing” amid broader concerns over its impact on the firm’s R&D spending.
• Clover Health (CLOV) sinks 20% after the health insurer cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, following third-quarter adjusted Ebitda results that fell short of expectations. The company notes high medical costs in the quarter pressured margins.
• Humana (HUM) falls 5% after the health insurer reaffirmed its forecast for medical costs for the full year, with the outlook below the average analyst estimate. The firm also reported higher medical costs for the third quarter than analysts anticipated.
• Kennedy-Wilson (KW) surges 26% after receiving a buyout proposal letter from CEO William McMorrow and Fairfax Financial Holdings to acquire all outstanding common stock.
• Kratos (KTOS) falls 8% after the defense contractor forecast revenue and adjusted Ebitda for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Mosaic (MOS) shares are up 5% after the agricultural chemicals company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Pinterest (PINS) is down 18% after the search platform gave a revenue outlook that is weaker than expected.
• Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) falls 7% after the server maker missed reduced estimates for first-quarter sales and profit and gave a disappointing earnings forecast for the current period, reinforcing concerns about its ability to capitalize on demand for AI equipment.
• Toast (TOST) gains 3% after the restaurant software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted Ebitda.
• Trex (TREX) sinks 33% after the maker of decking products forecast net sales for the fourth quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) slips 1.8% after one of its freighter jets crashed and exploded shortly after takeoff on Tuesday from Louisville, Kentucky, killing three crew members and at least four people on the ground.
• Upstart (UPST) falls 13% after the AI lending marketplace reported third-quarter revenue that missed expectations and lowered its full-year revenue forecast.

In corporate news, Google and Fortnite game maker Epic Games reached a settlement in their long-running antitrust fight over how developers distribute and monetize apps on Android phones. A UPS freighter jet crashed and exploded shortly after takeoff from Louisville, Kentucky, killing at least seven people.  Toyota’s annual profit guidance disappointed investors, a sign that the impacts of US tariffs are still weighing on its bottom line. Amazon.com is suing Perplexity AI to try and stop the startup from helping users buy items on the world’s largest online marketplace.

The VIX jumped to 19 on Tuesday but there’s no sign of panic so far in derivatives markets with the gauge holding under 20, with some 25/30 call spread buying, a likely hedge into year-end playing a moderate rise in volatility. 

“There has been way more nervousness than usual during the last rally, and that’s not a good sign,” said Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris. “The market was priced for perfection so that explains why emerging questions about rate cuts, liquidity, and valuations are having such an impact.”

Crypto markets offered an early warning signal on the recent liquidity rush, with Bitcoin about 20% below a record high reached a month ago — before paring some of those losses in Wednesday trading. Holders of the cryptocurrency have offloaded around 400,000 Bitcoin over the past month, an exodus of about $45 billion that’s left the market unbalanced.

Meanwhile, the US government has reached a major milestone of dysfunction, with the federal shutdown now the longest in history — and economic pain is deepening. The CBO estimates 4Q growth could be cut by as much as 2 percentage points if the impasse continues for eight weeks. 

In politics, Democrats landed a series of local election wins. Zohran Mamdani was elected the 111th Mayor of New York, and his proposals and inexperience — he’s sponsored only a handful of bills while serving three terms as a state assemblyman — is said to have unnerved business leaders and real estate groups. 

ADP jobs data today comes in the face of recent corporate cutbacks which economists fear may be a warning sign, with companies such as Starbucks, Target, and Amazon making significant job cuts.

Turning to earnings, by Tuesday night, three-quarters of S&P 500 companies had reported results this season with a positive surprise ratio of 82% — similar to 2Q, which was the highest beat percentage since the third quarter of 2021. Price reaction to AI-related earnings remains volatile, with AMD falling despite lifting guidance, perhaps reflecting elevated buyside expectations. Other AI-related names to fall on results include Tempus AI, Super Micro Computer and Arista Networks.

Emerson Electric, FIS, Humana, McDonald’s, Unity Software and Zimmer Biomet are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Sales growth at McDonald’s is expected to accelerate to 3.6% from a 1.5% drop last year, as its enhanced value offerings resonate with consumers. Earnings from AppLovin, DoorDash, ARM, Duolingo, Figma, Fortinet, Robinhood, Qualcomm and Lyft follow later in the day.

European stocks fall for a second day, though with less severity than seen earlier in Asia. Stoxx 600 down by 0.5% with tech stocks underperforming on a drag from ASML. That followed weakness in chip stocks in the US and drops for the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 in Japan and Kospi in Korea. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Barry Callebaut climbs as much as 7.8% following results on Wednesday, with analysts noting its “sober” outlook, but Vontobel saying the chocolate product manufacturer is at least setting more realistic goals.
• Vestas gains as much as 15% after the Danish wind-power manufacturer reported a strong set of earnings, with analysts highlighting outperformance for its Power Solutions division, with a new and unexpected buyback program welcome.
• Aixtron shares climb as much as 7.6%. Demand for power from AI infrastructure could drive growth at the semiconductor equipment manufacturer, according to Barclays, which upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight.
• Ahold Delhaize shares rise 4.6% as the retailer reported adjusted operating profit for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Demant gains as much as 7.6%, despite the firm saying it now expects full-year organic sales growth to come in toward the lower end of its existing 1%-3% guidance range.
• Novo shares fluctuate in morning trading before rising as much as 2.7%. The Danish drugmaker narrowed its sales guidance for the year, while its commentary around negotiated US Medicare pricing was better than expected, according to analysts.
• Ambu slumps as much as 19%, the most in three years, after the Danish health-care equipment company reported its latest earnings. JPMorgan sees a miss to 4Q estimates, and new 2026 guidance implies large cuts to Ebit consensus expectations.
• Siemens Healthineers falls as much as 13%, the most on record, after the German health-care equipment group reported earnings which analysts describe as a disappointment.
• Pandora shares fall as much as 5.2% after the jewellery manufacturer lowered guidance for 2025 like-for-like growth and its 2026 EBIT margin target, and reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Nexi shares fall as much as 9.9% after the third-quarter operating revenue of the payment services provider missed estimates.
• Qiagen drops as much as 4.4% in Frankfurt as Morgan Stanley says the German life science and diagnostics firm’s fourth-quarter growth outlook potentially overshadows decent third-quarter results.
• Evotec shares fall as much as 12% after the German company reported results RBC called “dismal” with revenue and Ebitda significantly below consensus estimates.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, weighed by a selloff in tech shares amid mounting concerns over excessive valuations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.3%, before trimming some losses on dip-buying. Tech heavyweights TSMC, SoftBank and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest drags. Most markets were in the red, with Japan and South Korea leading the losses.  The selloff follows Wall Street chiefs’ warnings about an overdue correction, while fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the prolonged US government shutdown also contribute to the risk-off sentiment. South Korea’s equity benchmark Kospi Index finished 2.9% lower — narrowing earlier losses of as much as 6.2% — marking its steepest daily decline since August. Japan’s blue-chip Nikkei 225 gauge also pared a plunge of 4.7% to close 2.5% lower, while the broader Topix Index fell 1.3%.  China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index reversed early losses to end the day in the green, helped by solid gains in solar stocks. Indonesia also posted mild gains. Markets in India were closed for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is in a narrow range but has reversed an earlier decline. Sterling an outperformer, Swedish krona in the middle of the pack in the G-10 after the Riksbank held rates at a three-year low.

In rates, we are seeing muted moves in bond markets, with US Treasury yields little changed amid similarly muted price action in German bonds, while long-end gilts underperform slightly. US 10-year is lower by less than 1bp near 4.08% with German counterpart similar and UK’s lagging by around 1bp. Treasury 5s30s curve is around 1bp steeper on the day. Focal points of US session focus include October ADP employment change and services PMIs, as well as Treasury quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am New York time. For the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, dealers expect two- to 30-year auction sizes will be unchanged during the November-to-January period
IG dollar issuance slate includes at least two offerings so far. Three borrowers raised a combined $2.85b Wednesday. Issuers paid about 12bps of concession on deals that were 2.9 times covered. 

In commodities, gold is higher by $34 to around $3,964/oz. Oil prices up, Brent futures heading closer to $65/barrel. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000, though is now holding just above that level.

US economic calendar slate includes October ADP employment change (8:15am), October S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and October ISM services index (10am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4%
• DAX -0.7%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.09%
• VIX +0.5 points at 19.54
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.45
• euro little changed at $1.148
• WTI crude +0.7% at $61/barrel

Top overnight News

• The government shutdown dragged into its 36th day becoming the longest in history. Every week that passes with Congress deadlocked costs the US economy between $10 billion to $30 billion, according to analysts’ estimates, with several landing in the $15 billion range. BBG
• A "handful" of moderate Senate Democrats are considering voting to end the government shutdown. The deal would pass three full-year appropriations bills to fund some agencies, along with a short-term bill that would reopen the rest of the government: WaPo
• Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the New Jersey Governor election and Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia Governor election, while Democrat Zohran Mamdani won the New York mayoral election.
• In addition to Mamdani’s victor in New York, Democrats also scored other victories throughout the country. The party won gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia around a message of economic affordability. California voters approved a new congressional map intended to create five new Democratic-leaning districts. BBG
• New Yorkers squeezed by the city’s housing crunch also voted in favor of proposals to fast-track affordable housing projects, expedite modest developments and create an appeals board, vote tallies recorded by the AP and the NYT showed. BBG
• The Chinese government has issued guidance requiring new data center projects that have received any state funds to only use domestically-made artificial intelligence chips. Order likely to affect U.S. chipmakers Nvidia, AMD, Intel as Beijing tries to cultivate domestic AI chipmakers like Huawei. RTRS
• Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, said recent moves by the yen are deviating from what might be expected given interest rate differentials. The yen touched an eight-month low against the dollar after the BOJ left rates unchanged, despite subtle hints of a potential hike from Governor Kazuo Ueda. BBG
• A growing number of policymakers at the Bank of Japan believed that conditions were falling into place for interest rates to rise, with two members advocating an immediate increase, minutes of the central bank's September meeting showed on Wednesday. RTRS
• The Bank of England is exploring ways of encouraging lenders to use more of their regulatory capital buffers in a bid to boost economic growth. BBG
• German factory orders rose for the first time in five months. Demand increased 1.1% in September, led by automotive and electrical equipment manufacturers and beating estimates. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump posted the "United States Supreme Court case is, literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country. With a Victory, we have tremendous, but fair, Financial and National Security. Without it, we are virtually defenceless against other Countries who have, for years, taken advantage of us. Our Stock Market is consistently hitting Record Highs, and our Country has never been more respected than it is right now. A big part of this is the Economic Security created by Tariffs, and the Deals that we have negotiated because of them."
• US President Trump posts it was his "Great Honor to just meet with high level Representatives of Switzerland. We discussed many subjects including, and most importantly, Trade and Trade Imbalance. The meeting was adjourned with the understanding that our Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, will discuss the subjects further with Switzerland’s Leaders."
• White House posted the Executive Order modifying duties addressing the synthetic opioid supply chain in China.
• White House said it is not interested in selling to China at this time regarding NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell chips.
• China announced it will suspend 24% US tariffs for a year but will maintain 10% US tariffs, while it will lift some tariffs on US agriculture goods from November 10th.
• Chinese Premier Li said some unilateral and protectionist measures have had severe impacts on the economic world order, while he said they should uphold equality and mutual benefit and consolidate the foundation of legitimate common interest. Li stated that it is all the more important for them to stay committed to mutual cooperation and pursue free trade when economic growth is slowing. Furthermore, he said China is willing to stand with all parties to foster an open and inclusive environment, as well as commented that countries should not seek unilateral wins at the expense of others, and need to balance their interests against the greater good.
• White House said US President Trump feels positively about the relationship with India and trade teams continue to be in serious discussions, while it added that President Trump and Indian PM Modi speak frequently.
• China Commerce Ministry suspends unreliable entity list announced in April; removes entity list announced in March and will adjust the list.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed after an early sell-off following the losses stateside, where tech underperformed amid valuation concerns. ASX 200 was rangebound as resilience in defensives and the top-weighted financial sector provided a cushion. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses and briefly fell beneath the 50,000 level with the downturn led by tech-related stocks. KOSPI collapsed alongside the tech bloodbath, which prompted the Korea Exchange to briefly trigger sidecars on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are mixed after paring most of their earlier losses following somewhat mixed Chinese RatingDog Services and Composite PMI data in which the former marginally topped estimates, but the composite figure slowed, while both the US and China made adjustments to their tariffs following last week's Trump-Xi talks.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Minutes from the September 18th-19th Meeting stated that members agreed current real interest rates are very low, and the BoJ is likely to continue raising interest rates if its economic and price projections materialise. Furthermore, members agreed there is high uncertainty on trade policy developments and their impact on the economy, while a few members said it is appropriate to maintain current monetary policy to scrutinise trade policy impact on the domestic and overseas economy, as well as prices.
• Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Mimura says recent JPY moves deviate from fundamentals, JPY long positions have been shrinking after summer. FX excessive volatility, not levels, is the main concern. There is some speculation in the market about Japan's macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy. A bit worried whether or not the current situation in the stock market might be a little too rapid.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) opened entirely in the red, as the downbeat risk tone continues to follow through into today's session. Lack of pertinent newsflow and a slew of EZ PMIs have had little impact to change price action, which has been fairly rangebound throughout the day. European sectors hold a negative bias. Autos takes the top spot, buoyed by post-earning strength in BMW (+1.5%) after reporting decent Q3 metrics, and reiterating its FY outlook. Tech is found towards the foot of the pile, as AI-bubble fears continue to grow; ASML (-2%). Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk (+1%) has pared initial losses, despite poor headline metrics and trimming FY guidance.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is to urge insurance bosses to increase investment in London, according to FT.
• The Times' Shadow MPC says that BoE should wait to cut rates again until after the November 26th budget. The decision was via a narrow 5-4 vote.
• Politico writes that the mood around French Socialist Party Leader Faure concerning the budget bills was rather optimistic. An associate cited said “What would be the point of a governing party doing all this work if they're not going to vote in the end?”.
• Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; reiterates that policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come. The labour market is still showing weak development, although there are now some signs that a turnaround is on its way.
• ECB's Nagel says the ECB should be vigilant but not complacent on inflation.

FX

• The recent rally in the USD that has been driven by improving US-China relations, the hawkish FOMC announcement and yesterday's global equity selling has paused for breath. As the US shutdown enters its 35th day, matching its prior record, official US data releases remain suspended. However, today we will be presented by the latest ADP employment report and ISM services print. The former is expected to see employment in October rise to 28k from the -32k print in September. For the ISM print, consensus looks for the headline metric to pick-up to 50.8 from the neutral 50 mark. Elsewhere, today will see the commencement of the hearing on the legality of US President Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Policy. DXY remains below Tuesday's best at 100.25.
• EUR is attempting to stop the rot vs. the USD following a recent run of losses, which dragged EUR/USD down from a 1.1668 peak last week to a 1.1473 trough yesterday. Incremental macro drivers remain on the light side for the Eurozone with final services & composite PMIs and an unrevised ECB annual wage tracker failing to move the dial for the EUR.
• JPY is now only incrementally firmer vs. the USD following a bout of strength overnight as global equities continued to slip. USD/JPY delved as low as 152.97 before returning to levels above 153.50. Recent strength in JPY has been stemming more from the risk-aversion price action in the market as opposed to anything Japan-specific. Fleeting modest JPY appreciation was seen in early European trade after Japanese Top Currency Diplomat Mimura noted that recent JPY moves are deviating from fundamentals and that excessive FX volatility, not levels, is the main concern.
• GBP is attempting to atone for its recent run of losses, which have largely been driven by increasing odds of a December BoE cut and ongoing angst ahead of the November 26th budget. This angst was brought to the forefront yesterday following Chancellor Reeve's pre-budget speech in which she stopped shy of naming any specific policies but helped reaffirm the markets view that it will be a growth-negative event. Cable is holding above Tuesday's 1.3010 trough but some way off the 1.3139 peak.
• Antipodeans are mixed, with the Kiwi marginally outmuscling the Aussie on the cross. Overnight markets had Chinese Services/Composite PMI data, in which the former marginally topped estimates, but the composite figure slowed. Overall, quiet trade for the pair this morning, as the FX space awaits key US data.
• As was widely-expected, the Riksbank opted to keep rates unchanged and reiterated guidance that the "policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come". Within its economic assessment, it was judged that the outlook for inflation and economic activity remains largely unchanged. SEK was little moved.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start to the day for USTs but only modestly so. Action for USTs overnight occurred in tandem with the broader risk tone, as a move lower in equity futures was seen around the beginning of the APAC session, the fixed benchmark picked up, taking USTs to an overnight 113-02 high. Thereafter, the benchmark drifted as the risk tone picked up off lows and stabilised. Nonetheless, USTs hold onto modest gains but are at the lower-end of a narrow 112-26 to 113-02 band. The docket ahead is packed from a US perspective. On the data front, the monthly ADP (reminder, they also do a weekly update now on non-NFP weeks) series is due and expected to come in at 28k (prev. -32k); ISM Services also due. The Quarterly Refunding Announcement is also due and is expected to maintain the nominal coupon auction sizes for the November-January period. Finally, the Supreme Court tariff hearing begins today with oral arguments to be presented for the first time.
• Bunds are echoing USTs in terms of overnight direction, though the magnitude of action has been slightly more pronounced, Bunds are in a 129.26-47 band but ultimately remain in the green by a tick or two, as is the case with USTs. No move to the morning’s final PMIs, posting upward revisions to the services and composite measures. The latest ECB wage tracker maintained the annual rate and did not spark any price action.
• Gilts are underperforming peers. Opened unchanged 93.66 before lifting a few ticks higher to 93.69, acknowledging the overnight move, and then slipping into the red and currently to a 93.50 trough, posting downside of 16 ticks at most. Pressure that sends Gilts back to the 93.49 low from Tuesday, but still above Monday’s 93.37 close and thus retaining some of the support derived from the late-Monday/early-Tuesday press briefings around potential UK tax moves. Overnight updates include The Times reporting that Reeves is considering removing the 5p cut to fuel duty (introduced in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine), as it is not being passed onto individual customers. That cut, alongside the duty freeze that has been in place since 2011, costs c. GBP 3bln/yr.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks dipped at the start of the APAC session as Asian equities followed the sell-off seen stateside but gradually reversed as the European session got underway as risk sentiment improved a little. WTI and Brent dipped to a trough of USD 60.02/bbl and 63.92/bbl respectively before reversing to a peak of USD 60.90/bbl and 64.78/bbl as European players entered the market. Currently, crude benchmarks remain near session highs as markets wait for a new catalyst to drive the oil market. In the meantime, US ADP/ISM Services will keep markets busy.
• Spot XAU has rebounded from Tuesday’s selloff, which moved counter to the wider risk theme running through markets. XAU fell just shy of Tuesday’s low of USD 3928/oz at the start of the APAC session before trading higher to a peak of USD 3979/oz as the European session got underway. The yellow metal briefly extended higher to USD 3987/oz but has since fallen back into prior ranges. After falling over 12% from ATHs, there is a wider consensus that the pullback is mostly over as underlying drivers remain strong.
• Base metals have traded rangebound as the European session gets underway after 3M LME Copper fell for 4 straight days, its longest losing streak since late July. 3M LME Copper oscillates in a USD 10.58k-10.71k/t band as markets wait for a catalyst.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.5mln (exp. +0.6mln), Distillate -2.5mln (exp. -2mln), Gasoline -5.7mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +0.4mln.

Geopolitics

• IAEA's Grossi said Iran must seriously improve cooperation with UN inspectors to avoid heightening tensions with the West, according to FT.
• North Korea shows signs of preparing to launch additional spy satellites aided by Russia, while it was also reported that North Korean leader Kim could conduct a nuclear test in the near future if he wants, according to South Korea's spy agency.
• US Secretary of Defense Hegseth said the US military carried out a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel in international waters in the Eastern Pacific.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Oct 31 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.9%, prior 7.1%
• 8:15 am: Oct ADP Employment Change, est. 30k, prior -32k
• 9:45 am: Oct F S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 55.2
• 9:45 am: Oct F S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 54.85, prior 54.8
• 10:00 am: Oct ISM Services Index, est. 50.8, prior 50

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The last 24 hours have brought a clear risk-off move, as concerns over lofty tech valuations have hit investor sentiment. Markets compounded these losses in the early hours of Asian trading but have been rallying back in the couple of hours prior to going to print with US futures clawing back towards flat with the KOSPI rallying back a couple of percentage points from early -5% plus losses. In the main session yesterday, the S&P 500 (-1.17%) lost ground thanks to sharp losses among tech stocks, and there was a big slump for Palantir (-7.94%) after its earnings the previous day. Moreover, this pattern was clear across multiple asset classes, as US HY spreads (+10bps) ticked up for a 4th consecutive day, Brent crude oil (-0.69%) fell back again, whilst Bitcoin (-6.18%) fell below $100k for the first time since June, some -20% off its recent all-time highs.

In terms of overnight news, it was a big election day across many states in the US yesterday including NYC mayor and gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. While the Democrat victories that we've seen were expected in these high profile races, the party appears to have mostly outperformed opinion polls. So an early sign of an anti-incumbent party swing ahead of the mid-terms in a year’s time, even if one has to be cautious in the read across from state to federal elections. In NYC, the Democrats’ candidate and self-described democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won the three-way mayoral race ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo. The vote was in part seen as a test of Mamdani’s leftist economic proposals which include higher local corporate and top-end income tax rates, though it is far from clear if these would get the necessary backing of the New York state legislature and Governor.

US political news will remain in the spotlight today as the Supreme Court is due to hear oral arguments in the case against Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs. Lower courts invalidated the IEEPEA tariffs back in the summer but left them in place pending appeal. While a ruling by the Supreme Court may take some time, today’s hearing could well provide hints of how the justices view the arguments. If the Supreme Court upholds the earlier decisions, it would impact many of the tariffs imposed this year, with implications for government revenue, though the administration may look to replace these using other statutes.

Back to yesterday and whilst the moves were only one day’s selloff, the market narrative saw a discernible shift, with a growing chorus discussing whether we might be on the verge of an equity correction. That speculation has gathered pace over the last month in particular, mainly because the Magnificent 7 has diverged from the rest of the S&P 500, which has revived questions about how concentrated this equity market now is. Indeed, whilst the Mag 7 have been advancing in recent weeks, the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually fell in October for the first time in 6 months.

Yesterday’s decline for Palantir (-7.94%) was seen as emblematic of this shift, particularly given they’d actually raised their revenue outlook the previous day. But given their share price had quadrupled in the last year, that’s set the bar incredibly high for any earnings releases. In fact, the Magnificent 7 (-2.28%) led the declines yesterday, with Nvidia itself down by a larger -3.96% as some of those top-performing stocks came under scrutiny. The S&P 500 ex-Mag-7 was also down a notable -0.75% with the equal-weight index -0.63% and the Russell 2000 -1.78%. For the S&P 500 itself (-1.17%), it was the worst day since October 10, when trade escalation fears between US and China spiked.

Whilst many assets struggled yesterday, US Treasuries benefited from the risk-off tone, with yields falling across the curve. So the 2yr yield (-2.9bps) fell back to 3.58%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.5bps) fell to 4.09% (4.072% as I type in Asia). That came as investors dialled up the likelihood of a December rate cut again, particularly as fears of a larger equity correction gathered pace. So by the close, a December rate cut was back up to a 74% probability, and that move got further support from the decline in commodity prices, with Brent crude down -0.69% to $64.44/bbl. Despite the fall in yields, the dollar index (+0.35%) gained amid the risk-off mood, while gold (-1.73%) retreated.

Elsewhere, the mood hasn’t been helped by the ongoing US government shutdown, which is now the longest on record at 36 days today, surpassing the most recent 35-day shutdown in 2018-19. Interestingly, we did see mounting speculation yesterday about a potential deal between Republicans and Democrats, with hopes that a compromise will become more likely with yesterday’s elections out of the way. Indeed, the Polymarket odds of the shutdown continuing past November 16 have fallen from around 40% when we went to press yesterday to 27% now. We also heard from President Trump, who said that SNAP benefits (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) would only be given when the government was open, and he said in another post that the Senate filibuster should be terminated so Republicans could reopen the government themselves.

Overnight in Asia, markets are continuing their decline but are well off their early morning lows. The Nikkei (-2.62%) and Kospi (-2.83%) are leading the way with the latter down over -5% earlier. Elsewhere the sell-off is less severe with the Hang Seng (-0.31%) and ASX (-0.13%) rallying back towards flat and the Shanghai Composite (+0.14%) actually higher. NASDAQ futures are down -0.20% and S&P 500 futures down -0.07%, with the former rallying nearly a percentage point from the lows.

Earlier in Europe, the main news came from the UK, where gilts rallied after Chancellor Reeves delivered a speech that reassured markets about future bond issuance. Notably, she said that the “more we try and sell, the more it will cost us”, and she also affirmed that her “commitment to the fiscal rules is ironclad.” So that helped 10yr gilt yields to fall -1.0bps yesterday, ending the session at 4.42%. The speech comes ahead of the budget on November 26, and another significant feature was that Reeves didn’t rule out the prospect of tax rises either. That’s important, because the governing Labour Party promised at last year’s general election that they wouldn’t raise income tax, VAT or National Insurance (a payroll tax), so a shift in that stance would be a big political moment.

Elsewhere in Europe, the risk-off tone mirrored what we saw in the US, with the STOXX 600 (-0.30%) falling to a two-week low. Several of the major indices lost ground, including the DAX (-0.76%) and the CAC 40 (-0.52%), although the FTSE 100 (+0.14%) posted a modest gain as it was supported by the weakness in the pound sterling (-0.91% vs USD). Meanwhile, sovereign bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-0.6bps) and BTPs (-1.0bps) all falling back.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October. Otherwise, we’ll get the final services and composite PMIs from the US and Europe, German factory orders for September. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel and Kocher, along with the BoE’s Breeden. Earnings releases include McDonald’s and Qualcomm.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:18

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 25,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

Recession Watch: Could The Next One Be Right Around The Corner

Authored by Carlo Putti via BondVigilantes.com,

Recessions often appear crystal clear when analysed in retrospect.

It’s easy to sit back, glance at the Bloomberg screen, and spot the evident recession we had in 2008 or the dot-com bubble of 2000.

However, discerning whether an economy is on the brink of a recession, or even if it is already are in one, is considerably more challenging. Recessions often become obvious only once they are well underway, and by then, significant economic damage may have occurred. For instance, during the GFC (Great Financial Crisis), many viewed Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008 and the simultaneous surge in unemployment as the onset of the recession. However, the recession started almost a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2007. This shows that by the time most people realise there’s a recession, it is typically already in full swing. Additionally, macroeconomic data poses another challenge in early recession identification because it tends to be lagging and  subject to sharp revisions, altering the perceived state of the economy. Looking back at the GFC, labour market data in early 2008 still was showing a picture of positive job growth, suggesting economic robustness. It was only after subsequent revisions that these numbers were adjusted to reflect negative job growth, exposing the real extent of economic deterioration. These dynamics highlight why recessions seem obvious only after substantial damage has unfolded.

With that in mind, what can we discern about the current state of the US economy? Macroeconomic data doesn’t paint a bleak picture: the labour market appears robust and real growth is decent. Additionally, equity markets are at or near all-time highs while credit spreads remain historically low, suggesting that investors’ confidence in the economy’s durability is strong. But what if this perception is wrong? What if the US is on the edge of a recession, or even, what if it is already in one?

Typically, recessions are triggered by a substantial slowdown in monetary flow. When liquidity abounds and money flows smoothly, as it did post-Covid, the economy tends to boom. Conversely, when money flow halts and reverses, economic activity decelerates, ultimately causing significant job losses and a further downturn in economic growth. Therefore, monitoring monetary flows is crucial to gauging the future trajectory of the economy.

At a high level, money flows are primarily influenced by monetary and fiscal policies. During the Covid pandemic, both policies were expansionary, spurring the subsequent economic boom. Since then, monetary policy has become more restrictive, yet fiscal easing has replenished this shift, continuing to support economic expansion. However, today, we are confronted with a scenario where both monetary and fiscal policies appear to be restrictive, impeding the flow of money into the economy.

On the monetary front, commercial banks exhibit drastically muted lending activity, while the Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet and maintaining relatively high interest rates.

On the fiscal side, things started to change under President Trump, driven by cuts and the introduction of tariffs, which increasingly appear to be paid domestically as opposed to be borne by the exporters.

This leaves us in a very different position compared to the post-Covid boom era. Now, monetary flows are stalling and reversing. While this trend might not yet be evident in widely followed macroeconomic data, it is beginning to appear in traditional recession indicators that investors have historically relied upon. Richard Woolnough recently discussed Dr. Copper, a long-standing indicator used by many to evaluate economic growth prospects. Building on this, below is a selection of other indicators that also suggest a similarly bleak economic outlook.

Source: University of Michigan, Bloomberg (CONSUEXR Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (USESTEMP Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (LEI YOY Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (NHSPATOT Index), 31 August 2025

Source: Bloomberg (USYC2Y10 Index), 31 August 2025

In conclusion, identifying a recession after it has happened is often very straightforward, but identifying one when you’re on the brink of it, or even in the middle of it, is much more challenging. Recessions don’t start when the labour market cracks. That’s only a consequence of the recession, not the cause. They begin when money stops flowing through the economy, slowing down growth, cutting profits, and leading to layoffs.

Since Covid, governments and central banks have been pouring money into the global economy, helping it to grow quickly. But now, both are tightening up, making it harder for money to move around freely, which is a big concern for the future. Some recession indicators are already suggesting a potential downturn in the US, yet investors seem overly optimistic, assuming a negligible chance of an impending recession. I believe this could be a mistake, and given the current macroeconomic environment, we should be more cautious and start discussing recession probabilities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 08:05

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week as Treasury yields moved slightly higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. The 30-year fixed rate was mostly unchanged at 6.31 percent and remained close to the lowest level in over a year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite a decline last week, refinance applications are still significantly higher than a year ago. The average loan size for refinance applications was at its highest level in six weeks, as borrowers with larger loans continued to seek ways to lower their monthly payments. Purchase applications declined slightly from a week ago, however, there was slight increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek loan options to help manage challenging affordability conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.31 percent from 6.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Nigerian Officials Deny Christian Slaughter, Call For "Sit Down" With Trump

When South African president Cyril Ramaphosa traveled to the White House this year with his big grin and large entourage, he did not seem to understand the nature of the visit.  He seemed to believe he was there to wine and dine with President Trump, as he had done with Joe Biden on multiple occasions, and that American money would flow from the encounter as it always had. 

South Africa had become so accustomed to easy US cash they felt entitled to it.  What Ramaphosa did not understand, however, was that he was in Washington DC to be interviewed and tested.  He failed miserably.  His denials of mass murders and government oppression specifically targeting white farmers were exposed in real time.  The man was crushed like a bug in front of the very western liberal media that had protected his government from scrutiny.

A similar tone is being taken by the leaders of Nigeria.  With Trump threatening potential US intervention in the region due to ongoing attacks on Christians by Muslim militants, the Nigerian government is resorting to the same denials.  A Nigerian presidential adviser has made a statement to the press, asserting that the country refutes reports of Christian persecution, but is willing to have a 'sit down' with Washington to find a common front in fighting insurgency. 

Sources cited by the adviser do not have any regular observers on the ground in Nigeria, except for Amnesty International.  The left leaning organization is notorious for glossing over religious violence aimed at Christians in the country, designating it as a byproduct of non-religious civil unrest and crime, instead.  

It's a similar tactic used by South Africa to dismiss targeted violence and oppression of the white minority, along with crime data rigging to under-report murders or mislabel race motivated killings and politically motivated killings as simple "robberies gone wrong."  The problem is, the citizens and observers on the ground in these countries cannot be gaslit.  They see the tragedies unfold every day.

The data relies on how the attacks are categorized vs perceived motives of the culprits.  Some organizations post raw data on total Christians killed during these incidents while avoiding interpretations of motive.  Others specify motives and take a nuanced approach.  All of these groups, however, agree that Christians are vastly more likely to be killed due to militant violence than anyone else in Nigeria. 

Islamic militants of various terror groups do kill each other at times, often because of internal politics.  Christians are targeted specifically for their beliefs, while the Nigerian government attempts to partially blame them as if they are involved in the sectarian warfare.  

The International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), a Nigeria-based NGO that produces detailed investigative reports on religious violence, estimates 125,000+ Christian deaths since 2009 (part of 185,000+ total civilian killings), with 7,087 killed in the first 220 days of 2025 alone, alongside 19,100 churches destroyed and thousands abducted.

Open Doors, an international Christian persecution watchdog, ranks Nigeria as the deadliest country for Christians in its annual World Watch List. It reports a more conservative 3,100–4,118 Christians killed for their faith in recent tracking periods (e.g., Oct. 2022–Sept. 2023), accounting for 70–82% of global faith-related Christian deaths.

International Christian Concern (ICC), a U.S.-based persecution monitor that tracks specific incidents via on-ground partners, documents attacks like the June 2025 Middle Belt killings (85+ Christians in one week) and Boko Haram raids.

Global Christian Relief estimate at least 4000 religiously motivated killings of Christians in Nigeria every year.

To be clear, there are no organized Christian militant or terrorist groups in Nigeria equivalent to Boko Haram, ISWAP, or radical Fulani militias that initiate systematic attacks on Muslims or others for religious reasons.  There are also no widespread attacks on Muslim Mosques in Nigeria, and there are no specific incidents of state officials singling out Muslim communities or religious buildings for demolition. 

For Christians it's a different story.  For example, in 2021 in Kaduna State (under Sharia Law), authorities demolished 263 buildings in the predominantly Christian Gracelands community in Zaria, including 6 churches, a school, and homes. Officials claimed the land belonged to an aviation college, despite residents holding certificates of occupancy. 

Events involving the government destruction of Christian properties are common across Nigeria.  The Nigerian government, though it boasts of being secular and balanced, has only had one Christian president in the past 50 years.  The rest have been Muslim, including the current president (Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and vice president in control of the country since 2023.  Tinubu's wife is a Christian, but the base of power in Nigeria is with Muslim groups, primarily because they are willing and able to project violence at will.

This is why 12 of the 36 Nigerian states are under total Sharia Law.  The Nigerian government will be hard-pressed to convince Trump that Christians are not being singled out and targeted.  Too much evidence exists to the contrary, and simply categorizing political violence as average crime did not work for the South Africans, so it's unlikely to work for the Nigerians.  

Solutions will probably focus in financial cuts at first.  Nigeria receives over $1 billion annually from the US along with around $6.5 billion in FDI inflows.  Much of this cash can be frozen by Trump within days using sanctions and tariffs.  A kinetic response, though improbable, is currently on the table.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 04:15

Nigerian Officials Deny Christian Slaughter, Call For "Sit Down" With Trump

When South African president Cyril Ramaphosa traveled to the White House this year with his big grin and large entourage, he did not seem to understand the nature of the visit.  He seemed to believe he was there to wine and dine with President Trump, as he had done with Joe Biden on multiple occasions, and that American money would flow from the encounter as it always had. 

South Africa had become so accustomed to easy US cash they felt entitled to it.  What Ramaphosa did not understand, however, was that he was in Washington DC to be interviewed and tested.  He failed miserably.  His denials of mass murders and government oppression specifically targeting white farmers were exposed in real time.  The man was crushed like a bug in front of the very western liberal media that had protected his government from scrutiny.

A similar tone is being taken by the leaders of Nigeria.  With Trump threatening potential US intervention in the region due to ongoing attacks on Christians by Muslim militants, the Nigerian government is resorting to the same denials.  A Nigerian presidential adviser has made a statement to the press, asserting that the country refutes reports of Christian persecution, but is willing to have a 'sit down' with Washington to find a common front in fighting insurgency. 

Sources cited by the adviser do not have any regular observers on the ground in Nigeria, except for Amnesty International.  The left leaning organization is notorious for glossing over religious violence aimed at Christians in the country, designating it as a byproduct of non-religious civil unrest and crime, instead.  

It's a similar tactic used by South Africa to dismiss targeted violence and oppression of the white minority, along with crime data rigging to under-report murders or mislabel race motivated killings and politically motivated killings as simple "robberies gone wrong."  The problem is, the citizens and observers on the ground in these countries cannot be gaslit.  They see the tragedies unfold every day.

The data relies on how the attacks are categorized vs perceived motives of the culprits.  Some organizations post raw data on total Christians killed during these incidents while avoiding interpretations of motive.  Others specify motives and take a nuanced approach.  All of these groups, however, agree that Christians are vastly more likely to be killed due to militant violence than anyone else in Nigeria. 

Islamic militants of various terror groups do kill each other at times, often because of internal politics.  Christians are targeted specifically for their beliefs, while the Nigerian government attempts to partially blame them as if they are involved in the sectarian warfare.  

The International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), a Nigeria-based NGO that produces detailed investigative reports on religious violence, estimates 125,000+ Christian deaths since 2009 (part of 185,000+ total civilian killings), with 7,087 killed in the first 220 days of 2025 alone, alongside 19,100 churches destroyed and thousands abducted.

Open Doors, an international Christian persecution watchdog, ranks Nigeria as the deadliest country for Christians in its annual World Watch List. It reports a more conservative 3,100–4,118 Christians killed for their faith in recent tracking periods (e.g., Oct. 2022–Sept. 2023), accounting for 70–82% of global faith-related Christian deaths.

International Christian Concern (ICC), a U.S.-based persecution monitor that tracks specific incidents via on-ground partners, documents attacks like the June 2025 Middle Belt killings (85+ Christians in one week) and Boko Haram raids.

Global Christian Relief estimate at least 4000 religiously motivated killings of Christians in Nigeria every year.

To be clear, there are no organized Christian militant or terrorist groups in Nigeria equivalent to Boko Haram, ISWAP, or radical Fulani militias that initiate systematic attacks on Muslims or others for religious reasons.  There are also no widespread attacks on Muslim Mosques in Nigeria, and there are no specific incidents of state officials singling out Muslim communities or religious buildings for demolition. 

For Christians it's a different story.  For example, in 2021 in Kaduna State (under Sharia Law), authorities demolished 263 buildings in the predominantly Christian Gracelands community in Zaria, including 6 churches, a school, and homes. Officials claimed the land belonged to an aviation college, despite residents holding certificates of occupancy. 

Events involving the government destruction of Christian properties are common across Nigeria.  The Nigerian government, though it boasts of being secular and balanced, has only had one Christian president in the past 50 years.  The rest have been Muslim, including the current president (Bola Ahmed Tinubu) and vice president in control of the country since 2023.  Tinubu's wife is a Christian, but the base of power in Nigeria is with Muslim groups, primarily because they are willing and able to project violence at will.

This is why 12 of the 36 Nigerian states are under total Sharia Law.  The Nigerian government will be hard-pressed to convince Trump that Christians are not being singled out and targeted.  Too much evidence exists to the contrary, and simply categorizing political violence as average crime did not work for the South Africans, so it's unlikely to work for the Nigerians.  

Solutions will probably focus in financial cuts at first.  Nigeria receives over $1 billion annually from the US along with around $6.5 billion in FDI inflows.  Much of this cash can be frozen by Trump within days using sanctions and tariffs.  A kinetic response, though improbable, is currently on the table.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 04:15

Children Face Higher Risk Of Neurodevelopmental Disorders If Exposed To COVID-19 In Womb: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Children whose mothers contracted COVID-19 while pregnant face an elevated risk of developing autism or another neurodevelopmental disorder, according to a new paper.

A woman who is four months pregnant holds her belly in this photo taken on Aug. 10, 2018. Ulises Ruiz/AFP via Getty Images

About one in six children born to mothers who tested positive for COVID-19 during pregnancy was diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental disorder by age 3, researchers with Mass General Brigham said in the study. That was higher than the one in 10 other children who received a diagnosis of one of the disorders and were born to a woman who did not have COVID-19 during pregnancy.

“These findings highlight that COVID-19, like many other infections in pregnancy, may pose risks not only to the mother, but to fetal brain development,” Dr. Andrea Edlow, a specialist at Mass General Brigham and the senior author of the paper, said in an Oct. 30 statement.

In the paper, published by the journal Obstetrics & Gynecology last week following peer review, the researchers detailed how they analyzed records from births that took place within the Mass General Brigham system between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2021.

The time period was chosen due to there being universal COVID-19 testing in labor and delivery units across the system.

Mothers were defined as having COVID-19 if they tested positive for the illness during pregnancy, and defined as not having COVID-19 if they did not test positive.

The overwhelming majority of each group was unvaccinated, as vaccines only became available in late 2020.

Of the 18,124 women who gave birth and were tested, 861 tested positive for COVID-19 while pregnant.

Other records were reviewed to see if the children received neurodevelopmental diagnoses, using codes for autism and other disorders.

Sixteen percent, or 140 children, born to those women received a neurodevelopmental diagnosis by their third birthday, compared to 1,680, or 9.7 percent, of the 17,263 other children.

After adjustments, the researchers said COVID-19 infection during pregnancy was linked to 29 percent higher odds of neurodevelopmental disorders in children born to the COVID-positive mothers. The risk was higher for infection during the third semester.

Even though there was an elevated risk recorded, Dr. Roy Perlis, another author of the study, said in a statement that the “overall risk of adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in exposed children likely remains low.”

Funding for the study came from grants from the National Institutes of Health and the Massachusetts General Hospital Executive Committee on Research.

In the conflicts of interest section, Perlis listed being a paid editor at another journal, the Journal of the American Medical Association, while Edlow said she is a consultant for several pharmaceutical companies, including Merck.

The researchers said one limit of the study was not tracking children’s diagnoses outside the Mass General Brigham system, which includes eight hospitals. Another was potentially missing asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 among pregnant women.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 03:30

The EU Has A Rare Earths Problem, Poland May Have The Answer

Via Remix News,

The EU has a serious shortage of rare earths, which are vital for industrial and technological production on the continent. Poland may have at least a partial solution, and it has to do with Poland’s expertise in mining and extraction.

In a wide-ranging interview, Tomasz Zdzikot from the SET Foundation talks about how Europe has lagged behind in the mining of rare earth minerals for. years, with China clearly dominating the industry.

“Europe correctly diagnoses that raw materials are crucial, for example, in technological development and energy. (…) While the diagnostics have been good for over a decade, this has not translated into actions that could mitigate the identified risks,” the SET Foundation’s Tomasz Zdzikot told the DoRzeczy news portal.

A recent report from the SET Foundation addressed what the EU has identified as a key pillar of national security: the mining industry, and more broadly, ​​the raw materials industry.

Highlighting that Europe must “join the ongoing raw materials race,” Zdzikot said, “For over a decade, Europe has been correctly recognizing that raw materials are crucial, for example, in technological development and energy.”

How can Poland help?

This is where Poland’s mining industry will play a key role, Zdzikot told DoRzeczy. The country is not just involved in coal mining but copper mining, lithium mining, and titanium mining.

Poland’s KGHM is one of the world’s largest silver producers, as well as a major copper producer. The company has mines and mining projects in Chile, the United States, and Canada, allowing it to play a significant role in ensuring Europe’s resource security. 

He also emphasized that Europe must promote careers in mining. 

“From 2000 to today, the number of mining graduates in Europe has fallen by 60 percent. The average age of a miner in Europe is now over 50. Fortunately, we in Poland still have miners, experts, and excellent universities that educate miners,” Zdzikot said. 

“We also have excellent academic staff capable of leading complex projects,” he continued, adding that what Poland lacks “is a coherent resource policy.”

The EU as a whole must decide what raw materials to pursue to try to gain a competitive advantage. This can start in Poland, as the country can provide the continent with all the copper and coal it needs. However, Poland’s mining sector needs to be expanded to other resources as well. 

The SET Foundation report also calls for a European Commodities Fund to support raw material investments worldwide, help identify deposits, and establish financial structures to acquire rights to raw materials.

The challenges are huge

Europe is, however, currently vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of almost all key raw materials.

There are plans, the expert noted, to increase extraction, simplify and shorten procedures, and diversify supply sources, but the EU — along with many other countries — remains highly dependent on outside sources, namely, China.

This is no accident. China, the report emphasizes, has been pursuing its rare earths policy since the 1980s. Today, it supplies 100 percent of global demand for 10 heavy rare earth elements.

Asked about China’s recent decision to limit exports of rare earth metals, Zdzikot confirmed that all companies (including those outside China) that export products containing at least 0.1% Chinese rare earth elements or using Chinese mining, processing, or recycling technologies will be required to obtain a license issued by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. 

It was also announced that, as a rule, approvals will not be granted if it involves building military capabilities or even developing dual-use technologies, such as artificial intelligence with defense potential. 

In 2024, NATO published a list of 12 raw materials it designated as crucial to the defense industry. This is where China still enjoys a global monopoly, Zdzikot said. 

Electric vehicles and other key climate-friendly developments also require increasingly larger amounts of various resources. All in all, demand will be increasing across all metals and rare earth resources. 

For example, global demand for lithium is forecast to increase 40-fold between 2020 and 2040, 25-fold for graphite, and 7-fold for rare earth elements.

Mining countries have an edge

It would take years for countries to just acquire or develop the technology for extracting and processing rare earth resources. Highly advanced mining countries, such as Australia and Canada, estimate that at least six years are needed to achieve the capacity to refine rare earth elements without using Chinese technologies.

The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act states that the EU aims to meet at least 10 percent of its demand for strategic raw materials through domestic extraction by 2030. Its goal is a processing capacity of 40 percent of its demand for strategic raw materials and a 25 percent recycling capacity. 

The Act also seeks to ensure that no country supplies the European Union with more than 65 percent of a single strategic raw material. 

The key to achieving all of this is to shorten the time required to get mining production up and running, according to Zdzikot.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 02:00

Russia Should Investigate The Taliban's Claim About US-Pakistani Drone Cooperation

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

While there are reasons to suspect that the Taliban has self-interested political motives in peddling lies about Pakistan, there are also reasons for Russia to take its latest claim very seriously...

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed over the weekend that “American drones are indeed operating in Afghanistan’s skies; they pass through Pakistani airspace and violate our airspace. This must not happen. They [Pakistan] are helpless here, they can’t stop it. Naturally, this should be seen as a form of incapability, and we understand that. We suspect that major global powers, those who once clashed with us or claimed Bagram are behind this pressure.”

He concluded by observing that “They don’t come directly, but they assign others to provoke unrest in the region and create pretexts. We stand firm against any conspiracy and won’t allow misguided ambitions to become reality in the region.”

His latest claim follows a similarly scandalous one from early October alleging that the Crocus terrorist attack was orchestrated from Pakistan.

The larger context concerns the cross-border violence between them that prompted fears of Pakistan invading Afghanistan.

This didn’t occur in a vacuum but amidst the rapid US-Pakistani rapprochement and Trump’s renewed demands to return US forces to Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase, both of which preceded a report from the Financial Times about Pakistan offering the US a port ostensibly for economic purposes. Given this background, while there are reasons to suspect that the Taliban has self-interested political motives in peddling lies about Pakistan, there are also reasons for Russia to take its latest claim very seriously.

It’s not the first time that the Taliban claimed that those two are conspiring against it in this way.

Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob alleged around the one-year anniversary of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan that “US drone aircraft are coming from Pakistan and entering Afghanistan territory.” Pakistan denied that allegation just like it denied the latest one, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the CIA secretly reobtained access to drone bases there in exchange for Trump backing Pakistan over India lately.

Russia should therefore investigate the Taliban’s claim about US-Pakistani drone cooperation. Despite their own rapid rapprochement, Russia twice hinted in recent years that Pakistan might be playing a double game. The first indication came in November 2022 when Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said that “The Americans are openly blackmailing Taliban leaders, threatening them with a drone attack and forcing them to distance themselves from Russia and China”.

The innuendo was that these drone attacks would be facilitated by Pakistan letting the US use its airspace given that it’s the only realistic way for them to bomb Afghanistan. In late August of this year, Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu then wrote in an article that “The situation is aggravated by the recorded facts of the transfer of militants from other regions of the world to Afghanistan. There is reason to believe that behind these actions are the special services of a number of Western countries”.

As with what Kabulov said nearly three years prior, the innuendo is that Pakistan is facilitating the Western intelligence-backed infiltration of these terrorists into Afghanistan, once again due to it being the only realistic way for them to enter that country. Coupled with the Taliban’s recent claim that the Crocus terrorist attack was orchestrated from Pakistan, the pieces are in place for Russia to investigate whether its new partner is playing a double game and then reconsider their relations if this is confirmed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 23:25

Commercial Technology Most Often Target Of Chinese Spies

The case of a former aide to two New York governors who stands accused of excerting influence, falsifying documents, sharing information and carrying out shady business deals while receiving favors and kickbacks from the Chinese government and Chinese companies is expected to go to trial early this month.

While in many ways, the case of Linda Sun and her husband Chris Hu is not typical of Chinese espionage and influence in the United States, it is extremely brazen in nature and stands for a trend that experts say is growing.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, which researched cases of Chinese espionage in the United States between the years 2000 and 2023, found that most of these cases involved Chinese citizens, not naturalized U.S. citizens like Sun and Hu.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, only 10 percent of cases involved non-Chinese actors.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Furthermore, just 17 percent of cases had to do with U.S. government agencies (other than military ones) or U.S. politicians.

In fact, 54 percent of cases involved spying on military installations and technology, like in the case of two Chinese citizens residing in Oregon, who were accused in the summer of having spied on the U.S. Navy.

Another 29 percent of cases analyzed out of a total of 224 had to do with commercial espionage.

46 percent involved cyber espionage, while others were carried out on the ground though agents and acquired assets.

A study undertaken by author Nicholas Eftimiades and published in the year 2020 likewise found that China had expanded its espionage efforts since the year 2000 and that mainly Chinese citizens and males were involved.

It identifies private as well as state-owned companies, China's Ministry of State Security, the Central Military Commission, other government offices and universities as actors carrying out espionage acts.

According to Eftimiades, these acts often target military and tech commercial technologies the country seeks to acquire in areas like clean energy, biotechnology, aerospace, information technology and manufacturing.

Geographically, cases in this second study focused heavily on California.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 23:00

The Governor, The CEO, & The FBI: Scandal Threatens New York Hospital

Authored by Benjamin Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

After taking the helm at New York’s financially troubled Nassau University Medical Center late last year, Megan C. Ryan stumbled upon something baffling in the books: a two-decade-long series of transactions engineered by New York State that may have shortchanged the hospital by a staggering $1 billion in matching funds.

As a hospital primarily serving patients on Medicare, Medicaid, or who are uninsured, the medical center qualified for federal matching grants tied to state contributions. Ryan’s discovery indicated that the state was having the medical center itself post its share of the match – for around 20 years at $50 million per year – essentially cheating it out of the state’s matching dollars. “We just couldn’t wrap our heads around how a hospital that serves the poor would be forced to put up tens of millions of dollars” in place of state funds, Ryan told RealClearInvestigations.

Ryan says she called James Dering, previously general counsel of the New York Department of Health, for a legal opinion about the financial arrangement. That opinion indicated it was improper.

What seems like a local tussle over health care has all the trappings of a bigger partisan political fight in the run-up to one of the more important races for governor next year in New York. 

Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is running for reelection, is the central player in the dispute. The hospital – already at loggerheads with Hochul’s administration over claims the state was unduly withholding needed aid – filed suit last December against New York seeking to be made whole for the $1 billion it believed it was owed.

That litigation would help set in motion a series of events culminating in the takeover of the hospital by Hochul, removing control of the public benefit corporation from the hands of Republican Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman; the firing of Ryan and the mass exodus of the hospital’s leaders as the new regime took over; and new legal battles between Ryan and the hospital’s Hochul-appointed leaders.

Nassau University Medical Center’s ousted leaders say the takeover smacks of retaliation for their filing of a lawsuit that exposed alleged malfeasance and political corruption.

Despite Dering’s opinion, the state has argued there was nothing wrong with the hospital putting up the matching funds, and that its interventions in the hospital’s operations have been necessary to rescue a debt-riddled facility that has been hobbled by Republican-linked cronyism and mismanagement in one of the few downstate areas where the GOP is competitive. “It has been for years a Republican patronage pit,” Jay Jacobs, chair of both the state’s and Nassau’s Democratic parties, told Politico. “The place is run by Republican Party operatives.” 

The hospital saga has already drawn scrutiny from both the FBI and Republican congressional investigators – the latter suggesting that the alleged financial scheme is part of a broader effort to save the state’s balance sheet by shifting the Medicaid burden to counties and low-income hospitals. The state’s Medicaid spending is by far the highest in the country, at $4,942 per person.

Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, who is expected to run against Hochul, has made healthcare one of her key issues, jousting publicly with the governor over their divergent policies and approaches to Medicaid. Adding to the drama is the partisan battle over federal subsidies for rising Obamacare premiums, which is fueling the ongoing federal government shutdown.

The alleged financial shenanigans at the Long Island medical center focus on the convoluted funding mechanisms used to reimburse hospitals for hundreds of billions of care delivered across the country. The saga playing out in Long Island also illuminates the indelibly political nature of healthcare across the country, where two parties often divvy up and spar over control of facilities that are crucial to the lives of voters.

Nassau University Medical Center is a 530-bed Level I Trauma Center located in East Meadow that serves some 270,000 patients each year. It is the only hospital providing care to all comers regardless of their finances, in the suburbs of Nassau County, east of Manhattan. Until Hochul’s state takeover of the hospital this past May, control of the center was split among state leaders, generally Democrats, and local leaders, sometimes Republicans – with county officials retaining the upper hand.

The medical center’s finances have been shaky for years. A report produced by the turnaround firm Alvarez & Marsal concluded in 2020 that the only “potentially sustainable” option going forward would be to reduce the hospital staff by more than 90% – from 3,400 employees to roughly 300 – while eliminating emergency room and medical/surgical inpatient service altogether. 

Under Ryan, the hospital’s performance had improved. Nevertheless, after years of posting losses, the hospital had accumulated a $1.4 billion deficit as of the end of 2024.

While state leaders attributed this shortfall to mismanagement, local and hospital leaders say it is because of the state’s failure to provide necessary financial support – something the state disputes. 

According to one of the medical center’s lawsuits, its shortfall can be traced to a scheme that worked this way: “[T]he State would instruct the Nassau County Treasurer to instruct the Hospital to make a transfer of funds to the State with the assurance that the funds would be returned to the Hospital – along with the matching federal funds – within 10 days. And indeed, like clockwork, the money was paid to the Hospital within days.”

The state does not deny this description, but it rejects the hospital’s claim that the arrangement was dubious – a “conscious effort to make it appear that the nonfederal portion was coming from the County – when it was in fact coming from the Hospital” – let alone illegal. 

Noting that federal law allows states to cover their non-federal share of Medicaid matching funds through a variety of means, including via intergovernmental transfers from local authorities, New York countered in court filings that counties may put up matching funds and that counties may tap the hospitals themselves for the match. 

Although this would seem to be a straightforward legal issue, the law is murky. Healthcare experts with whom RCI spoke indicated that while intergovernmental transfers are common, they could not opine as to the legitimacy of the ones challenged in the Nassau Center’s case.

The New York State Department of Health and several other county hospitals did not respond to RCI inquiries about whether this arrangement was common practice. 

The courts would never resolve the Nassau University Medical Center dispute. In early May, Hochul effectively seized control of the facility and quashed the hospital’s suits against New York and the hospital’s financial monitor. 

Blakeman, the Republican county executive, called the takeover “illegal” and vowed to file suit.

The takeover had come just weeks after reports had emerged that the FBI was probing the hospital’s underlying allegations of $1 billion in withheld funds, with Blakeman and his handpicked hospital chairman, Matthew Bruderman, cooperating with the investigation.

In July, congressional Republicans running the House Oversight Committee opened a probe into New York’s alleged “abuse of the Medicaid system” through withholding federal Medicaid funds to fill New York budget shortfalls, as well as the alleged years-long $1 billion scheme concerning the Nassau University Medical Center.

A spokesperson for the committee told RCI that there was no update as to its investigation. As for whether other hospitals might be impacted, or analogous efforts were being undertaken in other states, the spokesperson said that the committee believes “this issue is unique to New York State Medicaid.”

In response to inquiries about potential federal probes, the Justice Department and Department of Health and Human Services declined to comment. 

An already complicated saga became even more convoluted this summer with contrasting claims about the hospital’s current finances and its future. Before she was fired in June, Ryan had tendered a letter of resignation in May amid the governor’s takeover that was to be effective July 20. In a separate letter to the hospital’s employees obtained by RCI, Ryan stated that in contrast to claims of mismanagement that had filtered out to the press as the dispute between the hospital and state escalated, the facility had improved its operational and financial performance – including significantly increasing cash reserves – while modernizing and expanding.

“[O]ur team has worked tirelessly to restore financial accountability, clinical excellence, and community trust,” according to the letter. “Despite these gains, powerful interests have spent years trying to undermine this institution and distort my record [through leaks to the press alleging mismanagement]. Their intent is not to improve health care but to consolidate political power, dismantle NUMC’s services, and potentially repurpose our hospital for private development.”

In 2024, as the hospital sought additional New York aid amid accumulated losses totaling several hundred million dollars, the state required that the hospital implement changes to support financial stability, while seeming to endorse Alvarez & Marsal’s 2020 recommendation that the facility be significantly downsized.

Hochul, meanwhile, has undertaken an initiative to repurpose state-owned sites as housing – including easing the ability to create higher-density housing. 

Richard Kessel, the chairman of the hospital’s financial overseer, the Nassau Interim Finance Authority, had previously led the county’s industrial development agency. It had provided economic incentives to aid in several housing projects, repurposing existing land for housing in the vicinity of the medical center.

Seemingly connecting those dots, Bruderman, the former hospital chair, said amid news of Hochul’s upcoming takeover in April that the governor’s efforts aren’t about “saving the hospital, our employees or our patients, but rather a Democratic Party power play. We have documented evidence that Albany intends to shut down the hospital, fire the employees and utilize this land for other purposes for political benefit.”

A Hochul spokesperson said of claims of a hostile takeover, “The board’s restructuring is unequivocally the best possible news for anyone who relies on NUMC.”

“Due to years of gross mismanagement…the hospital is in financial peril,” the spokesperson added. “This is a desperately needed intervention. The state’s priorities for NUMC have always been ensuring quality patient care and achieving financial stability.”

The medical center was reportedly poised to post an $11 million profit in 2025, after posting losses totaling over $140 million in each of the two years prior. 

As for any sort of land deal, a July 2025 opinion piece from a Newsday editorial board member indicated that developers had already begun to reach out to the hospital regarding the nearly 100 acres its facilities cover in a “highly desirable county that has little space to grow.”

“Everything’s on the table except eliminating the safety net hospital,” its Hochul-approved chairman, Stuart Rabinowitz, told the newspaper.

The implication among Hochul’s critics is that high-density housing would most likely benefit Democrats.

Ryan’s attempt to tender her resignation, which was followed by a mass exodus of other hospital leaders, was rejected. Instead, in June, the new board terminated her for cause, denying her severance pay. Ryan notified the hospital that she would seek legal redress.

Before she did so, in August, the hospital filed suit against her seeking $10 million in damages, claiming she had, among other things, engaged in systemic mismanagement, including in authorizing “over $1 million in excessive and improper termination payments” for herself and her exiting colleagues on the way out, and other expenses for reimbursement vastly greater than allowable amounts – including for a lobster dinner on the night one of the executives resigned.

Last month, Ryan countersued, defending her record and claiming the accusations leveled against her were false and defamatory.

Meanwhile, the ousted CEO asserted in her complaint that her successor was hired at a salary roughly 25% higher than her own – which she argues is discriminatory; that the new CEO “has had his hand in prior actual and attempted hospital closures much like the one that now seems imminent” at Nassau University Medical Center; and that the hospital had signed off on $10 million in no-bid contracts in just its first three months under its new board.

While the legal battles intensify, the fate of the safety-net hospital remains unclear.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 21:45

Flush With Value: $10 Million 18-Karat Gold Toilet To Be Auctioned By Sothebys

Here's a line we're certain we haven't written before: a second solid gold toilet — yes, actual sound money shaped like plumbing — is heading to auction after the first one was famously stolen.

In a financial era defined by fiat excess and central-bank hubris, nothing illustrates the absurd contrast between hard assets and paper wealth quite like this 18-karat masterpiece.

Italian conceptual artist Maurizio Cattelan created three fully functional golden toilets in 2016, according to the BBC. More than 100,000 people sat on the first one when it was installed at the Guggenheim. It later moved to Blenheim Palace, where thieves ripped out what the state valued at £4.8 million — a theft that showed the timeless rule: criminals prefer gold to currency. Several men were ultimately convicted for the 2019 heist.

BBC writes that the existence of a second version has been confirmed, and it will soon go under the hammer at Sotheby’s in New York. The auction house is presenting the work not merely as sculpture but as market commentary. They call it a “cultural phenomenon” and “an incisive commentary on the collision of artistic production and commodity value.”

David Galperin, Sotheby’s head of contemporary art, said: “America is Maurizio Cattelan’s tour de force. Holding both a proverbial and literal mirror to the art world, the work confronts the most uncomfortable questions about art, and the belief systems held sacred to the institutions of the market and the museum.”

But here’s the irony: the most powerful statement comes from the metal itself.

In a world first, the starting bid will be set not by curators or appraisers, but — for once — by real market pricing. Sotheby’s says the opening price will track the exact value of its gold content the moment bidding begins. If sold today, that would be about $10 million.

So while modern finance manufactures trillions out of keystrokes, this toilet — weighing over 100 kg of 18-karat bullion — remains what it has always been: an immutable store of value. Whether displayed in a gallery or locked in a vault, gold does not need an artist’s statement to justify its worth.

Even when you can sit on it, and sh*t in it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 21:20

The New Conspiracy Theorists

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

For the first time in my career, I’ve been fielding many questions from mainstream reporters. This is because I’ve been tagged as a “person of interest”—as law enforcement would say—in the staffing of federal public health agencies and committees. Sometimes I pick up the phone and sometimes not. The high dudgeon over my supposed role strikes me as wildly overwrought.

The issue is the upheaval going on in public-health bureaucracies. The FDA is changing. The CDC staff and mandate has been winnowed back dramatically. The food pyramid is being overhauled. Priorities are changing as regards NIH science funding. And the vaccine schedule for children is being pared back and changed.

As a result, industries and their media backers are agitated and angry. They simply cannot understand why this is happening. As a result, several major stories have appeared in the press that seem to blame me personally and the institution I head (Brownstone). Reading their stories, I’m truly in a state of disbelief that this is a prevailing outlook, as if I’m some kind of behind-the-scenes puppet master.

In other words, these reporters assume there is some kind of conspiracy. Seriously. They are asking detailed questions about my phone contacts, conversations I might be having with this or that person, my personal relationships with administration employees, funding sources, payment systems, with whom I am socializing, and so on.

At some point, I flat-out said it’s no one’s business. No, I won’t hand over my cellphone and bank records.

It’s all quite absurd. As I’m talking with these reporters, and trying to help them understand the broader context and the organic nature of these reforms—they had to happen in light of the last five years—it’s like talking to a brick wall. They begin their reporting with the presumption that there is some plot afoot. Their job is to find the malefactor. I’m just a convenient target.

It’s as if these people haven’t considered that what is happening is a reflection not of a scheme but of a population-wide blowback against terrible policies that were shockingly imposed upon the whole population that turned out to be enormously destructive. It would be more surprising if the status quo remained in place.

If anything, the reforms are going too slowly to satisfy public demands. The loss of trust in the CDC is an example. About one-third of the staff has been fired. Is that really so shocking? This agency is the one that imposed six feet of distance, one-way grocery aisles, sanitizer baths, the rental moratorium reversed by the Supreme Court, small-business closures, school closures, and even mail-in ballots.

Did they really think that once this was over, it would be business as usual? That seems to be what many ideologues on the left want. But it is not to be. What happened instead is exactly what one would expect in a democracy: the systems of government are responding to the grassroots. The bureaucracies are being rolled back. The mandates are being restricted. Protocols are being changed.

What’s at issue here comes down to a kind of worldview. I was explaining this strange problem to a friend who said plainly that these reporters on the left are simply assuming that we are operating as they have always operated. They plot, scheme, and trade quid pro quos, so they naturally assume we do too. Their operations are driven by the cash nexus so they assume that ours are too.

That could be the whole explanation. And yet I sense there is more going on.

Think about the term Progressive. Its root is progress. Real progress can take many forms but in the minds of the Progressives, there was only one way forward. That way involved the march of the state in league with corporate elites and academics. The most intelligent and credentialed people in society would take possession of society’s resources and organize them more intelligently than they otherwise would be.

That was and is the essence of the Progressive agenda.

And what were the Progressives against? They were opposed to a society that turned over the forces of social evolution to the people themselves in their communities and lives as individuals. To them, this was the essence of the old world they wanted to leave. It meant free markets, organically emerging community structures, decentralized government, families of any size including very large ones, and businesses that came and went based on the wiles of the market.

Every Progressive was against this sort of system on grounds that it all seemed too chaotic, unpredictable, and random. It seemed unintelligent. Thus was born the binary of Progressive vs. Reactionary. To them, history would, should, and could only move one direction: toward social and economic planning. Everything and anything else was considered reactionary or revanchist.

And from where did this strange view of history arrive? It traces back to the usual suspect: G.F.W. Hegel writing in the early decades of the 19th century. He was a German nationalist who was trying to bring a form of philosophical therapy to the German people following the loss of territory at the end of the Napoleonic Wars.

Hegel’s solution was a new model of history that removed personal forces and replaced them with a meta-narrative. Impersonal forces were in charge that were ultimately driving the narrative of history toward a single end, that of the triumph of the German state against all its enemies.

Hegel’s views became hugely influential in German academia, particularly among those people who favored empire and a unity of nation, corporation, church, and state. In the second half of the century, communists like Karl Marx picked up the Hegelian view of history and wedded it to socialist utopianism. Marx called his views scientific precisely because they were rooted in this strange Hegelian view of history. The triumph of communism was inevitable, he said, and therefore everyone who resists it is a reactionary holding back the “tides of history.”

These Marxian views became so influential that the Fabians in the UK and the left-socialists in the United States picked them up. That’s how movements for higher taxation, public school, the banning of youth labor, and so many other causes—not all of them bad—came to be called Progressive. Progress toward state control by administrative elites was inevitable.

This entire paradigm of progress/regress has dominated the public mind for a century.

Even low-end reporters for mainstream media outlets have picked it up. This is why Trump’s efforts to drain the swamp and gut the deep state have been greeted with such hostility. It is why RFK Jr.’s efforts on health are considered reactionary even though his views have not changed from decades ago when they were aligned with crunchy liberalism.

As a result of this worldview—people learn their Hegel not from books but from the streets of academia—people who accept it simply cannot imagine that any rollback of their plans is due to anything other than a scheme or plot or conspiracy designed to thwart the forward march of “progress” toward ever more control by the administrative state. This mindset rules out the existence of organic shifts in public life that do not go their way.

I can assure these reporters all day that I’m a mild-mannered guy with a newspaper column and a research institute but it doesn’t matter. They still believe that I’m some kind of string-puller with hidden billions and a mysterious control over the levers of power. They would rather believe this than come to terms with how horrible the COVID response was and how fed up people are with the bureaucrats in Washington, D.C.

They say the same about Donald Trump. He surely did not win fairly either in 2016 or 2024. He must have cheated or had Russian help. He is not legitimate precisely because he wants to take the country in a different direction than the one of which they approve. He is seen as “reactionary” whereas they are “progressive” and therefore he is wrong and they are correct.

In other words, the real conspiracy theorists are on the mainstream left these days, simply because they refuse to believe what is in front of their eyes. They cannot see their own failure for what it is and therefore cannot see the efforts to unravel the messes they made as a just and necessary correction.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 20:55

BRICS Vs G7: Comparing 2026 GDP Growth Forecasts

Today, BRICS countries represent half of the global population, a coalition with growing economic heft.

Unlike many Western powers, many BRICS countries are seeing rapid GDP growth driven by significant investment, trade, and demographic change. In an increasingly multipolar world, this group is exerting more influence as it expands.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, compares real GDP growth projections of BRICS vs G7 countries, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook October Update.

BRICS vs G7 Real GDP Growth

Below, we show GDP growth forecasts for BRICS nations in 2025 and 2026:

As we can see, India is projected to see one of the fastest growth rates across the bloc, at 6.6% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026.

In China, 4.8% growth is forecast for 2025 as the country strengthens trade across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Like India, growth is forecast to decline in 2026.

On average, BRICS growth will exceed G7 rates by more than threefold in both 2025 and 2026—a stark contrast visible in the table below.

With just 1% average growth for G7 countries, many countries are facing headwinds of aging populations and trade uncertainty.

Notably, Germany is forecast to see one of the world’s slowest GDP growth rates in 2025, rising just 0.2%. However, it is set to pick up to 0.9% in 2026—a trend mirrored in several other G7 nations.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on BRICS share of GDP compared with G7 countries.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 20:30

Mississippi Mom Murks Escaped Monkey After Feds Fail To Find

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

One of three virus-infected monkeys that escaped on a highway in Mississippi this past week was shot and killed by a homeowner who said she feared for her children’s safety.

People wearing protective clothing search along a highway in Heidelberg, Miss., near the site of an overturned truck that was carrying research monkeys, on Oct. 29, 2025. Sophie Bates/AP Photo

Jessica Bond Ferguson told authorities that her 16-year-old son walked into their home and told her he thought he spotted one of the primates.

“I did what any other mother would do to protect her children,” Bond Ferguson said.

The mom, who lives near Heidelberg, Mississippi, with five children aged 4 to 16, first called the police, who told her to keep an eye on the monkey. But she said she worried that if it got away, it would threaten children at another house.

“If it attacked somebody’s kid, and I could have stopped it, that would be a lot on me,” Bond Ferguson said.

She said she grabbed her gun and cellphone and went outside, and found the monkey about 60 feet away in the yard.

“I shot at it and it just stood there, and I shot again, and he backed up and that’s when he fell,” she said.

The Jasper County Sheriff’s Department confirmed that a homeowner near Heidelberg found one of the monkeys on her property Sunday morning. The state’s Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks responded and took the animal away, the sheriff’s department said on Facebook.

Bond Ferguson, a 35-year-old professional chef, was being hailed locally as a hero.

“Ya don’t mess with a Mississippi momma’s young’uns,” Doug Jernigan, of Meridian, Mississippi, commented on Facebook on Nov. 3.

The local community had been on alert since last Tuesday, when a semi-truck carrying 21 monkeys overturned while transporting them from Tulane University to an out-of-state testing facility.

Initial reports said that only one of the monkeys, which were infected with COVID, herpes, and hepatitis C, escaped capture, but that number was increased to three.

Sheriff's deputies were able to round up all but three monkeys that escaped when a truck overturned near Heidelberg, Miss., on Oct. 28, 2025. Jasper County Sheriff's Department

The accident happened at about 2 p.m. local time on Interstate 59, about 86 miles east of Jackson, Mississippi, near Heidelberg.

The truck had picked up the Rhesus monkeys from the university’s biomedical research center in New Orleans, Louisiana, which provides primates to scientific research organizations, according to the university’s statement this past week.

Authorities said the truck driver warned them about the “dangerous and aggressive” primates. The monkeys were not infectious, however, according to the university.

Eight of the monkeys were ejected from their cases, of which five were killed and three escaped. Thirteen monkeys from the shipment were taken from the accident scene and arrived at their original destination in Florida this past week.

Two escaped monkeys remain unaccounted for, according to the Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Parks. Department officers in the area are continuing to search for the monkeys and are asking for the public’s help to find them, a department official told The Epoch Times on Monday.

The monkeys are known to be aggressive, and the public was advised to avoid contact, according to the department.

The Mississippi Highway Patrol said it was investigating the cause of the crash.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 20:05

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

The Algorithm Is Dividing Us... And We're Helping It

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

As a content creator, I’ve noticed something hard to ignore: the posts that get the most engagement are rarely the ones that bring people together. They’re usually the ones that stir people up. The ones that make us mad or pick at our differences. The ones that feed the algorithm.

And yet, part of my job is to keep engagement going. It’s only natural that when a post performs well, I look at it and think, okay, people responded to that. It shapes what I post next—how I talk, what I highlight, even what I believe my “lane” is.

But what happens when the content that performs best doesn’t actually represent who I am?

For example, I write for The Epoch Times, and I know certain topics draw a lot of readers. But does that mean I should only write what gets clicks? Or do I have a responsibility to keep writing what I believe is meaningful, even if it doesn’t blow up online?

Last week, I posted a short video from my ranch. I was standing next to my cows, talking about the decision to import Argentinian beef—and how I didn’t think that was good for American farmers. Normally, my videos reach around 7,000 to 10,000 views. This one hit nearly 80,000, simply because I mentioned President Donald Trump.

And with that came more than 2,000 comments, many of them hateful.

People told me I was stupid, that I “got what I voted for.” They said I was aging poorly or that I looked unhealthy. Some even wished harm on my family.

But here’s what’s interesting: no one has ever said those things to my face.

In real life, people are kind.

We can disagree, but we still treat each other like human beings.

Online, though, the rules change. The algorithm rewards division, and division drives engagement. Engagement drives creators to lean further into whatever keeps people talking. It’s a loop—anger fuels clicks, clicks fuel income, and income rewards outrage.

The problem is, the more we live inside that feedback loop, the more we start to mistake it for real life. We begin to think the world is as cruel and divided as our comment sections. But it’s not. Social media is a curated, artificial experience that has very little to do with reality.

I’ve even run my own little tests to better understand it. When I post about God—about faith, gratitude, or anything that invites peace—the engagement drops dramatically. But when I talk about politics, the numbers skyrocket.

So I can’t help but ask: Are people more devoted to politics than to God? Or is it that the algorithm boosts whatever makes us angry, frustrated, or divided?

Because it really seems like the system is built to reward irritation over inspiration. The algorithm knows that anger spreads faster than peace. If you start to notice, you’ll see the pattern everywhere: content that makes people mad always travels farther. That’s not an accident. The machine is learning exactly what keeps us scrolling—and conflict is its favorite fuel.

But when division becomes profitable, unity starts to disappear. When angry voices get boosted, peaceful ones get buried. And before long, we start believing that the world is angrier than it actually is.

That belief shapes everything—our conversations, our politics, even our sense of safety. It makes us afraid to be honest because nuance doesn’t trend. Kindness doesn’t go viral.

So maybe the real choice we face isn’t just what we consume, but what we create.

As a creator, I can chase engagement or stay true to what I believe matters. I can talk about what gets clicks, or I can speak of truth, even when it doesn’t get rewarded.

Because the truth is, God doesn’t measure engagement.

He measures courage, integrity, and the willingness to keep speaking truth, even when it’s unpopular.

So the next time I post, I’ll ask myself: Am I feeding the algorithm, or am I feeding the soul?

And maybe—just maybe—if enough of us choose the latter, the machine will change. Perhaps it will finally begin to give us what our souls actually long for: unity, love, and God.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/04/2025 - 18:25