Individual Economists

Bessent: Rate Cuts Don't Have To Break The Dollar

Zero Hedge -

Bessent: Rate Cuts Don't Have To Break The Dollar

With rate-hikes increasingly back 'on the table' fort Fed Chair Warsh's 'regime change' last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that cutting interest rates won't necessarily lead to a weaker dollar - arguing that "you can have a strong dollar when rates are being cut" because if the fed is cutting because inflation is falling, while the economy stays strong - capital keeps flowing in and the dollar holds. Of course, that all depends on why the fed is cutting... 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Economic Club of New York, on June 23. Photographer: Krisanne Johnson/Bloomberg

Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box on Wednesday, Bessent said the U.S. can return to 3% growth this year, that inflation will fall back to the Federal Reserve's target now that the Iran conflict has eased, and that artificial intelligence is on track to at least double productivity - the recipe for maintaining a strong dollar while cutting rates. He also defended the administration's emerging Iran deal and its handling of frozen Iranian assets.

The comments followed a Tuesday night speech at the Economic Club of New York's America 250 gala, where Bessent set out a five-part framework he calls economic statecraft, which he defined as the use of American economic power "in service of our sovereignty."

Citing Hamilton's view that a nation "ought to endeavor to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply," he argued that decades of chasing the lowest cost had left the U.S. dependent in areas that matter: semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, advanced manufacturing, shipbuilding, critical minerals and pharmaceuticals. A supply chain, he said, can no longer be judged on price alone, but on whether it survives a crisis, withstands coercion and keeps running through a pandemic or a cyberattack.

Bessent said market access is now conditional, carrying "non-negotiable obligations" for partners that want U.S. capital and the dollar's plumbing while keeping their own markets closed. He also argued that whoever writes the standards for digital assets, stablecoins and tokenized finance will shape the century, and that those rules should be written in Washington. On financial leadership, he said there is "nothing accidental about the dollar's place in the world," calling reserve-currency status both an advantage and an obligation to police the system. The fifth principle was that the payoff is supposed to reach households, not only trading floors.

Wednesday morning, Bessent leaned on AI as the driver - citing the late Alan Greenspan's read of the 1990s and suggesting the current buildout, with hyperscalers such as Meta and Google set to spend on the order of $750 billion, could at least double productivity again. He credited financial deregulation with unlocking roughly $3 trillion in lending capacity, and said the deficit-to-GDP ratio could also carry "a three in front of it" by the end of President Trump's term, though he would not commit to progress this year.

On the Fed, Bessent said he is confident in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and praised the move away from rigid forward guidance and dot-plot projections. He said the president understands that "the bond market has taken out more governments than howitzers," a warning that if inflation runs hot and the Fed hesitates, the bond market will tighten on its own.

The newest item was on Iran. Once Tehran's frozen assets are released under the interim deal, Bessent said, the Treasury will oversee them, probably through an escrow account run out of Doha, and "recycle" a large share into U.S. food and medicine, including corn, wheat, soybeans and pharmaceuticals. The arrangement turns a concession critics dislike into a farm-state selling point.

He also tied housing affordability to lower rates and more supply, blaming COVID-era mortgage lock-in for low turnover. The timing fit: Trump was set to sign the 21st Century Road to Housing Act the same day.

Dollar Dominance 'Essential'

According to Bessent, the dominance of the US dollar is "essential," telling CNBC: "if you look, the new Venezuela... the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade... We're seeing in the Iranian negotiations, the Iranians will be invoicing in dollars. Everything we are doing is pushing the dollar back... we're reinforcing it."

The latest move in the dollar came after the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, dropped its bias toward future cuts and signaled that a hike this year is possible, causing two-year yields to jump to their highest in more than a year. 

Let's see if Bessent's prediction of - "Now that we're on the other side of it, prices come down" pans out. Energy shocks have a history of feeding into wages, services and expectations before they fade. The word transitory did real damage in 2021 and 2022 because it was obvious bullshit to cover for the fact that Biden-era policies amplified the damage from so much liquidity during Covid. Bessent may be right that the Iran spike proves temporary. The risk is that he is right about gasoline and wrong about the stickier core that tends to follow it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 17:00

Fauci, The CIA, And The Unanswered Questions Of COVID

Zero Hedge -

Fauci, The CIA, And The Unanswered Questions Of COVID

Authored by Cory Franklin via RealClearWire,

Did Anthony Fauci manipulate the intelligence community (IC) investigation of the origin of COVID as outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard claims?

Gabbard recently released previously unseen documents and communications during the COVID pandemic between the IC and the key member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Dr. Anthony Fauci. She claims they show that Fauci and the IC coordinated the investigation of the origin of the COVID to suggest it was a natural occurrence rather than a laboratory leak. She further charges that the documents reveal Fauci's direct role in influencing and manipulating IC assessments in an attempt to discourage the lab-leak hypothesis.

It is not clear that the released information shows this, and a careful reading suggests a more complicated scenario. But what the messages do show is that an undue emphasis on Fauci's actions risks missing a more important point - the hidden connection between public health officials and the IC during the pandemic.

The two theories on where COVID originated are that the virus evolved naturally from bats to man via an intermediate animal host; or that the virus leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. The first was more widely accepted by scientists and most of the international press early in the pandemic, but the intermediate host has never been discovered so the theory remains speculative. The second theory, which has gained significant traction since initially being disparaged as conspiracy, is only circumstantial since no definitive proof exists. The answer as to how COVID originated remains unknown.

Where does Dr. Fauci, the government's point man in the pandemic, fit in? He acknowledges the possibility of a lab leak, but initially came down firmly on the side of natural origin - aggressively so. He and his colleagues, notably his boss NIH director Francis Collins, attempted to publicly silence proponents of the lab leak theory. The rub is that Fauci was tangentially involved in "gain of function" viral manipulation research done in Wuhan and clearly misled Congress about this involvement.

Because gain-of-function research could have been responsible for the development of the virus in the Wuhan lab, this means Fauci has a conflict of interest on the COVID source: He could bear some responsibility for the entire affair if this was indeed a lab leak. So he has reason other than scientific inquiry to support the animal host theory. He is aware of that and has written in the past about the necessity and the attendant danger of doing gain-of-function research. He now strenuously denies it had anything to do with COVID.

Enter the IC and Gabbard's document release.

There is uncertainty over whether Fauci frequented CIA offices early in the pandemic, something he was less than forthright about in his 2024 congressional testimony. It is unclear whether or how many times he was there, in part because a whistleblower claims the requirement to sign in was waived for Dr. Fauci. What is not in doubt are his contacts with the CIA after President Biden charged the IC with investigating the origin of COVID.

The CIA asked Fauci to provide recommendations for experts to consult in their investigation of the COVID origin; the extent of his influence on the agency's investigation is unclear. At the time, some officials, aware of the potential conflict of interest, questioned in the documents whether relying on recommendations from someone deeply involved in coronavirus research could create the perception of improper influence regarding their findings. Nevertheless, the IC employed the experts Fauci recommended, who were never publicly identified. Their names have been redacted in communications and the information they provided has never been released.

The lack of transparency by the public health community and the CIA caused Republicans, led by Dr. Rand Paul, to suspect Fauci selected his CIA consultants based on their opposition to the lab-leak theory. Further, Paul proposed there was a self-justifying loop of information in which the medical experts put their thumbs on the scale of the IC report supporting natural origin. Public health officials (and some politicians who saw the lab-leak theory as a potential scandal) then turned around and used the "doctored" IC report to support the conclusions they provided to the public.

Neither of these accusations is supported or refuted by the released communications.

Again, despite Gabbard's claims, there is no smoking gun in the released documents, and the IC did not reach a consensus on the origin of COVID. The larger point, however, is one the public knew little about: the incestuous connection between high-level public health officials and the IC during the pandemic. Making Fauci the bête noire does little to advance our knowledge of what actually happened or how to go forward.

This hardly exonerates Fauci: His actions bear scrutiny because of his disturbing pattern of behavior. (Criminal charges may be a bridge too far, and in any event he has a blanket presidential pardon). Besides misleading Congress about his involvement with gain-of-function research and his attempt to suppress the views of lab leak proponents, he obscured his connection with the IC investigation. When asked, he mocked it with a snide deflection as "a conspiracy that I parachuted in like Jason Bourne." In addition, and almost forgotten today, he confessed to deliberately lying to the American public in the New York Times about "herd immunity" to COVID. This was not, as some claim, the result of incomplete information; he admitted consciously dissembling.

There is still much to be learned about Fauci's IC connection. At the same time, the released documents reveal that the IC responded with its traditional "business as usual" secrecy, the pattern they have used since the JFK assassination and before. There is absolutely no national security or legal reason to withhold the names of the expert consultants referred by Fauci, those names which are still redacted today. Those consultants are not spies, their lives are not in danger, and the public deserves to know who they are and what opinions they shared with the CIA - it is, in the final analysis, a public health question.

Also, why has there been no disapproval registered by the public health community about secret engagements with the CIA? Do they approve of this secretive collusion rather than demanding transparency? After all, the larger point here isn't to spread blame for COVID. It's to better intercept the next pandemic.

This furtive cooperation, and not Fauci, is the crux of the issue generated by the released documents. The public has a right to know about clandestine meetings between public health officials and the CIA. And if true, it is not out of the realm of possibility that there was self-serving connivance between Fauci and the agency, or that a self-justifying information loop kept the American public at bay. What would the public reaction be to that? Especially if the COVID origin turned out to be a preventable occurrence.

To paraphrase Hillary Clinton's provocative question, "At this late date, what does it matter?" The origin of COVID is still uncertain. Yet what these documents reinforce is that, despite the fact COVID killed 1.2 million Americans and caused untold economic, physical, and emotional damage, there has still been no official national reckoning. Doesn't the public deserve better? It is inconceivable that there has been no national fact-finding commission on the order of the Warren Commission (where both the CIA and FBI did lie to investigators), the Challenger Commission, and the 9/11 Commission. Why have the medical community, the press, and leading politicians stopped asking questions about the most significant event of the first quarter of the 21st century, including the nexus between public health and the IC? This is a national embarrassment.

The Roman statesman Cicero explained it best when he said, "To be ignorant of what came before is to remain a child."

And when it comes to COVID, we have been treated like children.

Dr. Cory Franklin is a retired intensive care physician and the author of "The COVID Diaries 2020-2024: Anatomy of a Contagion as It Happened."

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 16:40

Micron Soars After Reporting Blowout Earnings, Boosts Guidance

Zero Hedge -

Micron Soars After Reporting Blowout Earnings, Boosts Guidance

Step aside Nvidia: as we noted in our preview, with the world's most valuable company going nowhere in recent months, all attention has shifted to Micron, which has rapidly become one of the most important stocks in the world and certainly the most actively traded, surpassing both Nvidia and Tesla in recent days.

As such all eyes were on Micron's earnings today, and even with "sentiment at 11/10", according to UBS, the company still managed to blow away expectations for its Q3 earnings while delivering a sales forecast that topped Wall Street estimates after AI-fueled shortages of the components sent prices soaring.  

Here is what it just reported for the just concluded May/Q3 fiscal quarter:

Starting with the bottom line...

  • Adjusted EPS $25.11, beating consensus of $20.49.

We then go to the top of the income statement: 

  • Adjusted Revenue $$41.46BN, smashing all sellside estimates of $$35.69BN, and even well above the most optimistic buyside bogeys.
    • Cloud Memory revenue $13.77 billion, beating estimate $10.69 billion
    • Core Data Center revenue $11.52 billion, beating estimate $6.8 billion
    • Mobile and Client Revenue $11.52 billion vs. $3.26 billion y/y, beating estimate $9.73 billion
    • Automotive and Embedded rev. $4.63 billion, beating estimate $3.51 billion
  • Adjusted gross margin 84.9% vs. 39% y/y, beating estimate 81.9% 
  • Adjusted operating income margin 81.2% vs. 26.8% y/y, beating estimate 77.9%
  • R&D expenses $1.32 billion, +36% y/y, higher than estimate $1.29 billion 
  • Adjusted operating expenses $1.52 billion, +34% y/y, beating estimate $1.43 billion

Looking ahead, the company's forecast is just as impressive:

  • Micron sees Q4 adjusted Revenue of $49-$51BN, beating estimates of $43.24BN
  • Sees adjusted EPS $30 to $32, beating estimate $25.31
  • Sees adjusted gross margin about 86%, beating estimate 83.6%
  • Sees adjusted operating expenses about $1.65 billion, below estimate $1.66 billion

Commenting on the quarter, the company said that “Micron is investing at record levels in technology, products and supply to address our customers’ rapidly growing demand. We believe our multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”

More important was the company's discussion of its long-term agreements, i.e. "Strategic Customer Agreement". This is what it said in the accompanying presentation:

  • We are pleased to announce that we have completed 16 SCAs with customers across the data center, consumer and auto market segments. These SCAs accelerate the transformation of our business model, enhance partnership in technology and innovation, and provide customers with contracted supply assurance.
  • Typically, these agreements have a five-year term, from calendar 2026 through the end of calendar 2030. Automotive agreements generally have a three-year term.
  • The 16 signed agreements represent roughly 20% of our DRAM volume and a third of our NAND volume over this period.
  • These SCAs include four very large customers and three medium-sized customers.
  • The remaining agreements relate to smaller customers from the automotive industry and represent our commitment to this important sector.
  • When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these SCAs with customers across end markets. Our customers value our U.S. supply plans, and this is reflected in our SCAs.
  • These SCAs are structured as take-or-pay agreements, with binding commitments to purchase specific volumes over this multi-year term.
  • The largest agreements generally have a ceiling price for existing products at the current CQ2 (calendar Q2) market price, and a floor price through the term of the agreement.
  • Several SCAs, which account for a modest portion of the SCA-related revenue, include either fixed prices or have no price bands associated with them where pricing will be subject to market conditions. When all planned SCAs are executed, agreements with either fixed prices or price ceilings at or close to current CQ2 market prices are expected to be approximately 40% of our revenue.
  • For SCAs which do contain such price bands, pricing is designed to stay within this floor to ceiling level through the course of the term. This pricing visibility will help our SCA customers across market segments to better manage their business and grow their demand.
  • For our SCAs with price bands, the floor price enables a very robust gross margin for Micron, well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle.
  • 14 of the 16 SCAs that we have signed have a cumulative revenue at minimum price per our contracts of approximately $100 billion over the remaining agreement term.
  • They also strengthen our long-term financial performance, margins and free cash flow expectations, with higher visibility and improved stability in our business performance.
  • Under the SCAs we have signed so far, we project to receive cash deposits and related financial commitments of $22 billion. This further demonstrates customer commitment to this new business model. Mark will provide additional details.
  • Our SCAs with customers across data center to consumer devices to auto and industrial applications create a new paradigm for us to strengthen our customer relationships. They provide committed DRAM, including HBM as appropriate, and NAND supply to our customers over a multi-year time horizon.
  • In a period of significant shortage, this supply visibility is extremely beneficial to our customers. This visibility enables our customers to leverage SCA supply to make progress on their strategic plans, drive growth and enable their end consumers to benefit from their products and services. We are very appreciative of our customers, who have worked with us through this period of tight supply with a strong collaborative spirit to create win-win outcomes for the long term for the entire ecosystem and end consumers.

Micron and its peers in the memory space — Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — have become major beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom. A spending spree by data center operators has stoked the appetite for both conventional memory and a newer variety called high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, that works with AI systems.

Micron has struggled to satisfy memory-chip demand, creating shortages in areas like computers, phones and cars. Though the company is expanding its manufacturing capacity, prices are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. 

Micron works with Nvidia to integrate its memory into AI infrastructure. Earlier this month, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang confirmed that his company will rely on Micron’s HBM4 memory, along with those of its rivals, for its next-generation Vera Rubin platform. All three of the major memory makers have been jockeying for a slice of that business. 

Meanwhile, SK Hynix, which currently leads the HBM market, just announced plans for a stock listing in the US. The company is seeking roughly $29 billion in the offering, aiming to further capitalize on memory demand.

In a note published by Goldman's analyst, James Schneider, he write the following post-earnings observations:

  • Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to move higher following a quarter and guidance that were well ahead of the Street, despite elevated investor expectations given continued industry pricing momentum for both DRAM and NAND markets. We expect investors to focus on critical elements of management's commentary on today's conference call, including (1) additional color on the company's 16 Strategic Customer Agreements; (2) potential updates to the company's FY27 CapEx outlook; (3) market color on the conventional DRAM and NAD segments.
  • Quarterly results were well above the Street: Micron reported revenue of $41.46 bn, well above GS at $37.58 bn and the Street at $36.28 bn, while gross margin of 84.9% was above GS at 83.4% and the Street at 82.5%. Non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 was also well above GS at $22.07 and the Street at $21.05. DRAM revenue of $31.33 bn was well above GS at $28.30 bn and the Street at $28.21 bn, while NAND revenue of $9.94 bn was also above GS at $9.18 bn and the Street at $7.77 bn.
  • FY4Q guidance is well above the Street. Micron guided FY4Q well above the Street on revenue and margins. Revenue was guided to $50.00 bn at the midpoint, which is well above GS at $48.77 bn and the Street at $43.34 bn. Non-GAAP gross margin was guided to 86%, in line with GS at 86.1% and above the Street at 84.6%. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $30.00 - $32.00 (midpoint of $31.00) was above GS at $29.95 and well above the Street at $25.77.
  • Read-through to our coverage: We expect a positive initial reaction for SNDK (Buy) in our coverage given similar end-market exposure. 
  • Price target and risks: Our 12-month target price of $900 is based on a 18X P/E multiple applied to our normalized EPS estimate of $50.00. Key upside/downside risks include: (1) continued execution on the company's HBM roadmap and share gain vis-a-vis Samsung, (2) sizable step-up (above current expectations) in HBM content for AI accelerators, (3) continued signs of CXMT gaining DRAM market share, negatively impacting pricing dynamics.

In kneejerk response, the stock which slid in the past 2 days, has recovered most of the losses and has surged more than 10% rising to $1136 after briefly dipping below $1000 just before the market closed.

The company's investor presentation is below (pdf link)

Micron Q3 26 Earnings Deck by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 16:19

72 Ships Transited Hormuz In A Day: US Energy Secretary Says 'Taking Away' Iran's Key Leverage

Zero Hedge -

72 Ships Transited Hormuz In A Day: US Energy Secretary Says 'Taking Away' Iran's Key Leverage

WTI futures briefly fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted, as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz are showing further signs of normalization and physical market tightness continues to ease.

Bloomberg noted that option markets are positioning for ongoing normalization. Put volume is exceeding calls, with some of the heaviest trading in August and September expiries between $60 and $68. The September $60 strike put is one of the most active contracts, along with August $60, $65, and $68 strike puts. This only signals that traders are positioning for more downside as the war risk premium in crude oil evaporates.

This is why:

Earlier today, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the audience at the Reuters Global Energy Forum that roughly 72 ships carrying about 20 million barrels of crude moved through the strait over the past 24 hours. That figure is roughly one-fifth of global daily consumption.

"I could say roughly 72 ships in the last 24 hours, and 20 million barrels of oil," Wright told the audience in New York. "We have normal flows today."

He noted that even if the interim peace deal between the US and Iran fails, Tehran no longer has the ability to close Hormuz, saying the Trump administration has eroded one of Iran’s key points of leverage. 

"Iran will not have the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz going forward. That's a critical thing, that's their key leverage, and we're taking that leverage away from them," he added.

We pointed this out on Tuesday morning:

Wright said some ships are choosing not to transit the narrow waterway due to naval mine risks, instead moving close to Iran’s coast or along the southern route near Oman with military escorts. He said that full navigation could take several more weeks.

"To return to complete normalcy takes a demining of the strait, probably a few weeks' effort," he said.

Tehran’s leverage will all but disappear in the coming years as Gulf producers and oil majors are set to expand a network of pipelines and export routes that bypass the Hormuz chokepoint entirely, building on existing infrastructure designed to neutralize the risk. Read the full report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/24/2026 - 15:40

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