California Sues Trump Admin Over $33 Million Withheld Due To Trucker English-Proficiency Rules

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The state of California filed suit against the Trump administration on Dec. 12 for withholding federal funds over truck driver English-proficiency requirements.

Trucks in Phoenix on Nov. 19, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

The suit centered on a decision by the Department of Transportation (DOT) to hold back $33 million in federal funding for commercial vehicle safety programs because of the state’s decision not to comply with the federal requirements.

The English language requirement was reinstated by the DOT in May of this year.

California responded to the withholding of funds by saying the decision was “arbitrary and capricious, an abuse of discretion, and contrary to law; imperils the safety of all persons driving in California; and threatens to wreak significant economic damage.”

According to the state’s suit, California enforces the English-language rule for commercial drivers and is in compliance with federal laws.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, the Transportation Department, and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration were named in the suit.

This isn’t the only action taken by the administration related to alien truck drivers’ presence on the road. In August of this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States would pause the issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers.

The Department of Transportation did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

The day before the suit, on Dec. 11, Duffy announced that more than 9,500 commercial truckers were taken out of service for failing English-language proficiency checks.

“We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language—ENGLISH!” Duffy wrote in a Dec. 10 post on X. “This administration will always put you and your family’s safety first.”

The total consists of actions taken since May of this year, when the policy was reinstated.

“America First means safety first,” Duffy said in May. “Americans are a lot safer on roads alongside truckers who can understand and interpret our traffic signs. This common-sense change ensures the penalty for failure to comply is more than a slap on the wrist.”

Late in November, the DOT warned that Pennsylvania could lose up to $75 million if the state does not immediately revoke the commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) issued to foreign nationals and “correct dangerous failures” identified in its CDL program.

Duffy warned that the DOT found that the state had violated safety regulations by issuing CDLs to foreigners.

The California suit comes about two weeks after a review by the DOT found that almost half of the truck driving schools in the United States were found to be noncompliant with federal guidelines.

Around 44 percent of the roughly 16,000 truck driving schools in the country could be forced to close.

Duffy said in a Dec. 1 statement that the Trump administration is “cracking down on every link in the illegal trucking chain.”

“Under [President] Joe Biden and [former Transportation Secretary] Pete Buttigieg, bad actors were able to game the system and let unqualified drivers flood our roadways,“ Duffy said. ”Their negligence endangered every family on America’s roadways, and it ends today.”

At the time, 3,000 commercial driver license training providers had been removed from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Training Provider Registry because of violations, and an additional 4,500 training providers were put on notice for possible noncompliance.

The centers were closed for falsifying or manipulating training data; failing to meet requirements for curricula, facility conditions, or instructor qualifications; and failing to maintain accurate documentation or refusing to provide those records during the federal audit.

The Trump administration gave the state of New York 30 days to comply with federal rules for nonresidents, saying it could lose approximately $73 million in funding.

“Fifty-three percent of New York’s non-domiciled CDLs were issued unlawfully or illegally,” Duffy said in a news conference on Dec. 12.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:25

Zelensky, Merz Hail NATO-Style US Security Guarantees As 'Real Progress' In Peace Deal

We've heard this all before, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and American officials are hailing progress after deep discussions on a peace deal to end the nearly four-year war with Russia. During the couple days of meetings in Berlin, US officials have said there's consensus from Ukraine and Europe on about 90% of the Trump-proposedd peace plan.

It could be finalized within days in order to present to the Kremlin, which is unlikely to go for any scheme which doesn't feature serious territorial concessions. Zelensky late Monday said the draft is "very workable" but that key questions remain unresolved.

Still, the land issue remains a front and central problem. "The Americans are trying to find a compromise," Zelensky said just ahead of visiting the Netherlands on Tuesday. "They are proposing a ‘free economic zone' (in the Donbas). And I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone' does not mean under the control of the Russian Federation."

One big breakthrough, from Kiev's point of view, is being reported, however. The NY Times writes that "The United States, Ukraine and Europe have agreed on a NATO-like guarantee for the future security of Ukraine, two U.S. officials said on Monday, as they tried to come up with a revised peace proposal that would deter future aggression and still satisfy Russia."

Via AFP

And a senior US official was cited in Politico as saying, "The basis of that agreement is basically to have really, really strong guarantees, Article 5-like." This has sparked optimism in Berlin (though again, we've seen this all before):

"We now have the chance for a real peace process," Merz said.

Zelensky concurred: "We have progress there. I have seen the details from the military that they have been working on, and they look very good, even though it is only the first draft."

Zelensky and his backers have only very belatedly agreed that future NATO membership is not on the table, but now they are focused on something that's sure to receive massive pushback from Moscow: 'Article 5'-style' guarantees. So the idea is that Ukraine would never become a formal member of NATO, but would still in the end receive the benefits of such an alliance in a de facto way. 

Article 5 says that an attack on one country is an attack on all. But this is why Russia is sure to see in this simply a recipe that sets up future direct war with the West over Ukraine. The precise language of what such a security guarantee will look like has yet to be disclosed.

The NY Times presents things as being somewhat up in the air on the issue and subject to future negotiatons:

Most of the conversations over the past two days, the officials said, focused on the security guarantee, which is intended to deter Russia from invading Ukrainian territory again in coming years. The two officials were vague about the specifics, though they said that Mr. Trump was willing to submit any final agreement on American commitments to Ukraine to the Senate for approval. They did not say whether the guarantee would become a formal treaty — akin to what the United States has with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and other allies — or whether any vote would simply be intended to show a bipartisan commitment.

Mr. Trump has said the United States will not contribute ground troops to a security force. But last summer he offered to patrol the skies and enforce a no-fly zone, in addition to continuing to provide Ukraine with intelligence from U.S. satellites and signals intercepts. Senior officials say that offer still stands.

Again, at least some of these scenarios would be seen by the Kremlin as merely a precursor to bigger war. As such "robust" security guarantees would put Moscow and the NATO alliance a significant step closer to direct war, instead of the current state of things which remain more on a proxy war basis.

Meanwhile there is indeed plenty of cause for skepticism:

Another ruse, the "security guarantees" Zelensky is demanding is de facto NATO status. Besides, Zelensky and the Eurocrats will not recognize the Donbass oblasts as “de jure” permanent Russian territory. The deal is... there's no deal. The war will be decided on the battlefield. pic.twitter.com/w4S519irQ6

— Alan Watson (@DietHeartNews) December 15, 2025

Moscow has recently warned that Zelensky's sudden vocalization of willingness to make all kinds of concessions, such as preparations to hold elections, are but a ploy in order to buy time on and take off the immediate pressure from Trump.

For example, he's said he would be willing to prepare to hold elections in 60 days, but only if international backers could guarantee the freedom, fairness, and safety of such a vote. Likely this would mean demanding of Russia's military some kind of short-term ceasefire for Ukrainians to go to the polls. As we featured earlier, geopolitical analyst and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer has a pessimistic take on the 'progress' being reported out of Berlin.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 10:05

US PMIs Plunge To 6-Month Lows In December

With 'soft' survey data slumping during (and after) the government shutdown...

...this morning's preliminary December PMIs are not helping as both S&P Global's Manufacturing and Services surveys disappointed.

• US Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.8 (worse than the 52.1 expected) - 5 month low

• US Services PMI fell from 54.1 to 52.9 (worse than the 54.0 expected) - 6 month low

And all that in spite of 'solid' hard data...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index fell to 53.0 in December from 54.2 in November, according to the 'flash' reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses).

“The flash PMI data for December suggest that the recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Although the survey data point to annualized GDP expansion of about 2.5% over the fourth quarter, growth has now slowed for two months."

The latest reading was the lowest since June, though continues to indicate robust economic growth. Output has now risen continually for 35 months.

Despite the decline, US PMIs remain well above the rest of the world...

With new sales growth waning especially sharply in the lead up to the holiday season, Williamson notes that "economic activity may soften further as we head into 2026."

The signs of weakness are also broad-based, with a nearstalling of inflows of work into the vast services economy accompanied by the first fall in factory orders for a year.

"While manufacturers continue to report higher output, lower sales point to unsustainable production levels which will need to be lowered unless demand revives in the new year.

Service providers reported one of the slowest months for sales growth since 2023. "

Firms have also lost some confidence in the outlook and have restricted their hiring in December in accordance with the more challenging business environment.

"A key concern is rising costs, with inflation jumping sharply to its highest since November 2022, which fed through to one of the steepest increases in selling charges for the past three years. "

Higher prices are again being widely blamed on tariffs, according to Williamson, with an initial impact on manufacturing now increasingly spilling over to services to broaden the affordability problem.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:59

UK To Introduce 'Anti-Muslim Hate' Definition

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Ministers in the UK are steeling themselves for a storm of criticism as Communities Secretary Steve Reed prepares to unveil a new official definition of “anti-Muslim hate” this week. 

Critics, led by the Free Speech Union, warn that the expansive terminology risks creating a de facto blasphemy law, stifling legitimate debate on issues like grooming gangs and Islamist terrorism.

Ministers braced for Islamophobia law backlash https://t.co/vHc9Fp7d6O

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) December 15, 2025

The shift away from the term “Islamophobia” aims to provide guidance for public bodies, councils, and businesses in combating prejudice against Muslims. Yet, according to leaked drafts, it could label prejudicial stereotyping or “racialisation designed to incite hate” as hateful acts, potentially encompassing discussions that highlight patterns in crimes predominantly involving Muslim perpetrators.

ANY official definition of Islamophobia will have a chilling effect on freedom of speech. It could also be illegal.

Communities Secretary Steve Reed has reportedly finalised the official definition of Islamophobia, which is expected to be published this week.

It is understood… pic.twitter.com/TvZbYxDl3Y

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) December 15, 2025

The Free Speech Union has been vocal in its opposition, arguing that any official definition will inevitably chill free speech.

In a post on X, the organization stated: “An official definition of Islamophobia would stifle free speech, particularly discussion of important topics such as the grooming gangs scandal and Islamist terrorism.”

“Blasphemy laws were abolished in 2008 — 17 years ago. This government appears intent on resurrecting them and is due to publish the long-awaited definition this week. No religion in a free society should be beyond legitimate criticism or challenge,” the post added.

An official definition of Islamophobia would stifle free speech, particularly discussion of important topics such as the grooming gangs scandal and Islamist terrorism.

Blasphemy laws were abolished in 2008 — 17 years ago. This government appears intent on resurrecting them and…

— The Free Speech Union (@SpeechUnion) December 15, 2025

Toby Young, General Secretary and founder of the Free Speech Union, described the move as prioritizing one faith over others, alienating broad swaths of the population. 

“Prioritising Islam over other faiths will confirm the view of white working-class voters that they’re being treated like second class citizens in their own country, while Muslim community groups in marginal Labour constituencies like Birmingham Yardley will condemn the definition for not including the word ‘Islamophobia’,” Young said. He added: “It’s a fudge that will please no one.”

The warnings echo broader concerns from legal experts and watchdogs. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has cautioned that adopting such a definition could break the law by imposing a “chilling effect” on freedom of expression and harming community cohesion. 

In a letter to Reed, the EHRC highlighted potential “inconsistency” and “confusion” for courts, noting that existing laws already protect against discrimination and hate crimes.

“It is unclear what role a new definition would play in addressing abuse targeted at Muslims, given that legal protections against discrimination and hate crime already exist,” the commission stated.

Jonathan Hall, KC, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, has also opposed the definition, arguing it targets a religion rather than protecting individuals. He warned of “overzealous” enforcement by authorities, which could threaten free speech through “spongy or inaccurate” interpretations.

Government sources insist the definition won’t inhibit raising public interest concerns, even sensitive ones. A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesman emphasized: “This work has always been about stamping out hatred and we’ve been clear from the beginning that we would never consider a definition that stifles free speech or stops concerns being raised in the public interest. This will remain at the forefront of our minds as we review the definition.”

Despite these assurances, the Free Speech Union points to the abolition of blasphemy laws in 2008 as a hard-won victory now under threat. 

Their campaign urges citizens to contact MPs via a tool on their website to oppose the measure, underscoring that “we already have laws that protect against religious discrimination and hatred. We do not need a return to blasphemy laws 17 years after their abolition.”

The UK’s push reflects a pattern of governments weaponizing terminology to police thought, often at the expense of open debate.

As the Free Speech Union warns, this “fudge” risks alienating everyone while eroding core freedoms. 

In a truly free society, no topic should be off-limits, and no faith shielded from scrutiny. Defending speech now means pushing back against these creeping restrictions before they silence us all.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:45

Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Investigation Appears To Be On The Brink Of Implicating Zelensky

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The New York Times’ recent report about his government’s responsibility for the worst corruption scandal in Ukraine’s history suggests that the walls are closing in and his foreign media allies are jumping ship out of desperation to retain some of their credibility after years of deifying him.

It was earlier assessed that “Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Investigation Is Turning Into A Rolling Coup” after it took down Zelensky’s grey cardinal Andrey Yermak, consequently weakened the already shaky alliance keeping him in power, and thus placed more pressure upon him to cede Donbass. The latest development concerns the New York Times’ (NYT) report about how “Zelensky’s Government Sabotaged Oversight, Allowing Corruption to Fester”, which brings the investigation closer to implicating him.

It also represents a stunning narrative reversal after the NYT spent the past nearly four years practically deifying him only to now inform their global audience that “President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration has stacked boards with loyalists, left seats empty or stalled them from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote company charters to limit oversight, keeping the government in control and allowing hundreds of millions of dollars to be spent without outsiders poking around.”

Predictably, “Mr. Zelensky’s administration has blamed Energoatom’s supervisory board for failing to stop the corruption. But it was Mr. Zelensky’s government itself that neutered Energoatom’s supervisory board, The Times found.” Just as scandalously, “The Times found political interference not only at Energoatom but also at the state-owned electricity company Ukrenergo as well as at Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency”, the latter of which Kiev plans to merge with the State Logistics Operator.

None of this was a secret either: “European leaders have privately criticized but reluctantly tolerated Ukrainian corruption for years, reasoning that supporting the fight against Russia’s invasion was paramount. So, even as Ukraine undermined outside oversight, European money kept flowing.” The NYT then detailed the political meddling employed by Zelensky’s government to “impede the (supervisory) board’s ability to act” and therefore facilitate the worst corruption scandal in Ukraine’s history.

Their report is significant since it strongly suggests that there’s now tacit consensus between the NYT’s liberal-globalist backers, the conservative-nationalist Trump Administration, and the US’ permanent bureaucracy (“deep state”) about the need to expose Zelensky’s corruption. Gone are the days when he was presented as the next Churchill since he’s now being portrayed as no less corrupt than the strongmen in Global South countries that most Americans have never heard of or can place on a map.

To be sure, the aforementioned liberal-globalists and members of the “deep state” (oftentimes one and the same) still oppose Trump’s envisaged endgame in Ukraine, but they seem to have concluded that a ‘phased leadership transition’ is in their and Ukraine’s interests.

It appears inevitable that the anti-corruption investigation will soon implicate Zelensky so it’s best for them to get ahead of the curve in order to retain some credibility among their audience and possibly shape the next government.

Their goal isn’t to facilitate Ukrainian concessions like Trump wants in exchange for Putin agreeing to a profitable resource-centric strategic partnership after the conflict ends but to clean up some corruption and thus optimize government operations in the hope of inspiring the West to rally around Ukraine. It’s likely a losing bet, however, since the political momentum favors Trump’s vision. In fact, his opponents’ narrative reversal arguably advances Trump’s goal, but they’ll accept that to save their credibility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:15

Payrolls Paradox: November Jobs Stronger Than Expected But Unemployment Rate Jumps To 4 Year High

Ahead of today's jobs report, Goldman Delta One Head Rich Privorotsky wrote that with the October print backward looking and mostly govt related and irrelevant, "anywhere near consensus for November (+/-25k of 50k) feels like the sweet spot…that said, hard to see the FOMC feeling compelled to halt accommodation or even talk about hiking if labor momentum is still sub-100k on trend. Too cold (<25k or negative) and the pro-cyclical rally we’ve seen has to be questioned. Probably bigger risk to the market narrative is a re-acceleration in labor which is consistent with some of the bonce in open jobs visible in the higher frequency data."

With that in mind, moments ago the the BLS published a very mixed report, with payrolls coming solid, thanks to a big beat in the November print, offset by an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, above estimates, and the highest since Sept 2021.

Here are the details: in October, the US lost 105K jobs, entirely due to a plunge in government jobs (more below) but this was offset by the November jump of 64K jobs, which came in higher than the 50K expected. 

Naturally, the negative revisions continued: the BLS also reported that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000.  With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported. 

Of note, government employment tumbled in November by -6,000. This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

But while payrolls were generally solid, the unemployment rate was a problem and is what will likely prompt the Fed to cut more: in November, the unemp rate rose to 4.6% (with October blank), worse than the 4.5% estimate and the highest since Sept 2021.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers was 16.3% in November, an increase from September. The jobless rates for adult men (4.1 percent), adult women (4.1 percent),  Whites (3.9 percent), Blacks (8.3 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), all rose, and just the unemp rate for Hispanics (5.0 percent) dropped.

Both the labor force participation rate (62.5 percent) and the employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) were little changed from September. These measures showed little or no change over the year. 

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $36.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%, lower than the 3.6% expected. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in November. In manufacturing, the average workweek changed little at 40.0 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. 

Taking a closer look at the report we find the following details:

• The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks was 2.5 million in November, up by 316,000 from  September. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in November and accounted for 24.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 6.1 million in November, was little changed from September. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.8 million in November, was little changed from September. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little at 651,000 in November. 

Taking a closer look at the monthly change in jobs, employment rose in health care and construction while federal government employment declined by 6,000, following a loss of 162,000 in October. 

• In November, health care added 46,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 39,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+24,000),  hospitals (+11,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+11,000).
• Construction employment grew by 28,000 in November, as nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 19,000 jobs. Construction employment had changed little over the prior 12 months. 
• Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in November (+18,000), primarily in individual and family services (+13,000). 
• In November, employment edged down in transportation and warehousing (-18,000), reflecting a job loss in couriers and messengers (-18,000). Transportation and warehousing employment has declined  by 78,000 since reaching a peak in February. 
• The big outlier was Federal government employment, which continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp  decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

And visually:

While the quantitative aspects of the report were ok, the qualitative were ugly. In November, the number of full-time workers plunged by 983K from September to 134.17 million. At the same time, in the two months since Sept, the number of part-time workers soared by over 1 million (1.025 million to be precise) to 29.486 million...

... the highest on record while full-time workers tumbled to a 2025 low!

As for the closely watched "immigrant" shift, in November there were no fireworks here, with Native Born workers up 114K, while foreign-born increased by 58.

There was more: the number of people who need more than one job to make ends meet soared by almost 500K in the 2 months since Sept to 9.301 million, the highest on record!

Overall, this jobs report was weaker than it will be spun for political reasons, which however is precisely what the market is looking for because as Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson put it, "bad news is now good news for stocks."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 09:02

Hunting Season Opens: 18 Sanctioned Tankers Lurking In Venezuelan Waters

President Trump's gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, off Venezuela's coast, has the effect of a maritime blockade, disrupting oil flows to Cuba and to global markets via shadow-fleet tankers. The Trump administration calculates that choking off this oil trade could trigger cascading economic stress, first in Cuba and then in Venezuela, ultimately accelerating the end goal of regime change in Caracas.

The latest report from Axios shows that the Trump administration's seizure of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Caribbean is only in the early innings, with 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships currently in Venezuelan waters.

Last week, a US Special Forces unit seized the tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba's state-run oil trading firm.

The tanker was part of a dark fleet that shipped crude from Venezuela to Cuba and onward to Asia.

Samir Madani, co-founder of the firm Tanker Trackers, told Axios that of the 18 sanctioned oil-laden ships off the country's coast, eight are classified as "Very Large Crude Carriers" (VLCCs), such as Skipper, which can carry nearly 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. "It's quite a buffet for the U.S. to choose from," he said.

Given the unprecedented US naval presence in the Caribbean, mainly offshore of Venezuela in international waters, the Trump administration's theory of gunboat diplomacy centers on cutting off all support to Cuba. To do that, it follows the money, starting with oil flows via dark tanker fleets. Once those oil flows are disrupted, Venezuela falls, and then Cuba follows.

Related:

• Seized Tanker Reveals Cuba's Secret Oil Lifeline As Trump Turns To Gunboat Diplomacy

Axios quoted one Trump adviser as saying, "We have to wait for them to move. They're sitting at the dock. Once they move, we'll go to court, get a warrant, and then get them," adding, "But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there," in Venezuelan waters.

And gunboat diplomacy it is.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:55

'K-Shaped' Economy? Core Retail Sales Surged In October

Amid the growing specter of a 'k-shaped' economy, BofA's (almost) omniscient analysts forecast strong retail sales for October - considerably stronger than Bloomberg's consensus of a marginal uptick.

BofA was wrong - very wrong - as the headline retail sales was unchanged MoM, which pulled sales down to +3.5% YoY (still relatively strong)...

Source: Bloomberg

However, Ex-Autos, and Ex-Autos and Gas both beat expectations.

The figures indicate consumer spending picked up steam in the early weeks of the holiday-shopping season as shoppers, many worried about their jobs and frustrated by the high cost of living, sought out deals.

Eight out of 13 retail categories posted increases, including solid advances at department stores and online merchants.

Motor vehicles fell 1.6%, held down in part by the expiration of federal tax incentives on electric vehicles. Cheaper gasoline prices held down the value of gas station receipts.

However, there is a silver lining, as the Retail Sales Control Group (which excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations) - which feeds into the GDP calc - surged 0.8% MoM - double expectations and the biggest MoM jump since June...

Source: Bloomberg

That MoM jump leaves sales up a strong 5.1% YoY and while the 'k-shaped' economy continues to weigh on market sentiment, it is not evident in the aggregate data and supports solid Q4 GDP growth.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:44

KEVIIIIINNNN!!!

By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

With Christmas approaching, Home Alone offers a fitting image to start this Global Daily: Kate McCallister, flying high in seats that by today’s standards look very comfy, suddenly shrieks “KEVIIIIINNNN” when she realizes she has left her son behind. Kevin Hassett’s fast climb toward the Fed chair resembles such a flight: a strong ascent, apparently some nice tailwinds, and then a moment of doubt as he may have flown too close to the sun.

Just as Icarus overreached, high visibility and scrutiny can bring Kevin Hassett down too. Recent media reports suggest the field is open again, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh back in the running. The question is whether this Kevin represents an upgrade.

Indeed, Warsh’s record is at odds with the White House’s policy agenda. As governor, he pushed for rate hikes even as the U.S. economy plunged into recession, he opposed key tools to expand the balance sheet to deal with the financial crisis and then he warned of inflation that – if you’re generous – arrived about 13 years late. His critique of the Fed aligns with Friedman’s free-market and limited-government ideals, and also a very narrow interpretation of the Fed’s remit. While this is at least internally consistent, his calls were wrong at nearly every major turning point in the economy.

More problematically, his current fixation on balance-sheet reduction (while the Fed has shifted to an ample reserves framework) should be read less as an intellectually coherent framework and more as political positioning. It offers an easy way to sound hawkish and serious about inflation while providing cover to later advocate for the rate cuts this White House wants. His logic only works if fiscal deficits shrink substantially – and here we can think of Clinton-era Rubinomics – but Trump and Bessent have shown zero interest in deficit reduction.

Perhaps his candidacy is floated simply to make Hassett look better. Either way, everything Warsh says now must also be viewed through the lens of ambition. If appointed, the hard-money man could go soft, not out of conviction, but because doing the president’s bidding becomes part of the job. So if Hassett’s risk is proximity to the sun, Warsh’s risk is opportunism. Markets may conclude that neither choice secures the Fed’s long-term credibility on inflation expectations and central bank independence.

Meanwhile, Governor Miran offered a detailed inflation outlook to explain why he voted for a 50bp cut at last week’s meeting. He sees underlying price pressures closer to the Fed’s 2% target than the headline rate suggests, citing expected deceleration in shelter inflation as the PCE’s lagged metric catches up with flat market rents, and the way portfolio management fees are imputed from rising asset prices. He also argued against blaming tariffs for the rise in core goods inflation. While he wasn’t able to provide alternative facts, he did suggest that goods price inflation may settle at a structurally higher level than pre-pandemic norms, largely driven by efforts to strengthen supply-chain security and resilience.

Helpfully for both Kevins and Stephen, the near-term inflation picture looks more benign. Crude oil fell to a two-month low yesterday, helped by optimism around a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine that would lift restrictions on Russian flows. With WTI at $56.4 per barrel in an oversupplied market, with unemployment rising and wage growth easing, and rental inflation indeed largely flat, outside of tariffs there’s only the AI-boom that looks to keep inflation elevated in 2026. That would mean that the hawkish case to not cut rates at all in 2026 largely rests on the absence of a clear path to deceleration to the 2% target.

Day Ahead

Today is busy in terms of data.

The UK labor market data for October/November kicks off the morning. Conditions have weakened sharply in 2025: vacancies fell first, now employment is declining. Soft demand combined with rising labor supply has pushed unemployment to a four-year high of 5%, slowing private-sector pay growth. This reduces concerns about inflation persistence. If today’s report confirms the trend, the path is clear for further Bank of England easing at this week’s meeting and into early 2026.

In Europe, attention turns to the latest political psychodrama ahead of the Mercosur vote expected later this week. France is reportedly pushing to delay (or possibly derail) the process to revisit its long-standing concerns one more time, while supporters warn that another pause could kill the deal altogether. Also on the agenda this morning are the December PMIs. The Eurozone composite PMI is forecast at 52.6, slightly below November’s 52.8, but that would still indicate that the economy continues to expand modestly despite weak foreign demand. The UK reading may improve from November’s 51.2, partly reflecting the lifting of uncertainty after the Budget. Last Friday’s GDP data suggested the economy stagnated through most of the second half of 2025.

The FOMC meeting a week ago was about as market-friendly as it could reasonably get. Even so, Chair Powell reiterated that policy settings are now close to neutral, raising the bar for additional easing in the near term. Futures still price about a 60% chance of a 25bp cut in March. That stance faces a test this week as today’s November payrolls and Thursday’s CPI highlight the Fed’s conflicting mandate.

Today’s jobs report is unusual. It not only arrives on a Tuesday but also reflects distortions from the longest U.S. government shutdown. The BLS will publish October and November payrolls simultaneously, though markets will probably just focus on November. The unemployment rate, based on the household survey, covers only November. Data collection started after the shutdown’s end on November 12. The BLS warns of slightly increased standard errors due to technical issues with the sample itself, with a lot of first-time survey respondents that typically report higher unemployment rates than more experienced respondents. This suggests a small upward bias and makes the print a bit of a wildcard.

Consensus sees November payrolls slightly below trend at +50k and unemployment at 4.4–4.5%, a just-about-right print that would temper labor concerns while preserving optionality for cuts. A weaker print could spur risk-off moves: equities lower, a softer dollar, and flows into cash and Treasuries.

Finally, October retail sales are expected to rebound, with the control group up 0.4% after September’s 0.1% drop. Tariff-sensitive categories such as autos, electronics, and apparel are under pressure, while service-related spending still looks firm. For October, some retailers flagged a negative impact from the government shutdown, only reinforcing the “K-shaped” narrative Chair Powell talked about in last week’s press conference.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:20

Trump Sues BBC For $10 Billion Over Misleading Jan. 6 Edits

Authored by Troy Myers & Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on Monday evening filed a lawsuit against the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) seeking $10 billion in restitution for alleged defamation in a news special that aired last year.

The BBC logo outside the BBC Broadcasting House in London on Nov. 10, 2025. REUTERS/Jack Taylor

The 33-page legal filing accuses the BBC of making “a false, defamatory, deceptive, disparaging, inflammatory, and malicious depiction of President Trump …  that was fabricated and aired by the Defendants one week before the 2024 Presidential Election in a brazen attempt to interfere in and influence the Election’s outcome to President Trump’s  detriment.”

The BBC aired an episode titled “Donald Trump: A Second Chance?” on Oct. 28, 2024—one week before the presidential election.

The suit claims that in its episode, produced by “Panorama,“ the BBC ”intentionally and maliciously sought to fully mislead its viewers“ by ”splicing together” clips of remarks that Trump made ahead of the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol breach.

It asks for $10 billion in damages, citing the value of Trump’s personal brand and “the injury to President Trump’s business and personal reputation inflicted by these Defendants, and their efforts to falsely, maliciously, and defamatorily portray President Trump as a violent insurrectionist.”

The legal action was expected, coming hours after Trump announced from the White House on Dec. 15 that he planned to imminently file a lawsuit over the alleged defamatory edits.

“Literally, they put words in my mouth. They had me saying things that I never said coming out. I guess they used AI or something,” Trump said from the Oval Office on Monday.

The edits at issue center around remarks Trump made to his supporters at the Ellipse in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.

In the BBC program, editors spliced together two clips from the speech, creating the impression that Trump had said, “We’re gonna walk down to the Capitol and I’ll be with you and we fight, we fight like hell, and if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not gonna have a country anymore.”

In reality, the clips came from separate portions of the speech, including one in which Trump said, “We’re going to walk down, and I'll be with you … we’re gonna walk down to the Capitol,” and another 54 minutes later, in which he said, “We fight like hell. And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”

The UK broadcaster said it personally apologized to Trump in a letter to the White House last month, but has said that the issue doesn’t rise to the level of legal action.

“While the BBC sincerely regrets the manner in which the video clip was edited, we strongly disagree there is a basis for a defamation claim,” the broadcaster said in a statement in November.

The BBC also admitted to the misleading edit in its Corrections and Clarifications section. The broadcaster said the episode in question would not be rebroadcast on any BBC platforms.

“We accept that our edit unintentionally created the impression that we were showing a single continuous section of the speech, rather than excerpts from different points in the speech, and that this gave the mistaken impression that President Trump had made a direct call for violent action,” the BBC wrote on Nov. 13.

The next day, the president made his original threat to sue the BBC for up to $5 billion, saying the apology was not enough.

The BBC’s director-general and CEO of news at the time resigned after the scandal broke, an act that Trump praised on Truth Social a month ago, posting they “are all quitting/FIRED, because they were caught ‘doctoring’ my very good (PERFECT!) speech of January 6th.”

Trump said he planned to raise the issue with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who he said was “very embarrassed” about the scandal.

“This is within one of our great allies, you know, this is supposedly our great ally,” Trump said during a Fox News interview last month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:00

Futures Rebound From Session Lows Ahead Of Long Overdue Jobs Report

Stock futures are lower, but well off session lows, as traders await delayed jobs data that will shape the Fed’s next move. As of 7:15am, S&P 500 futures are 0.2% lower while Nasdaq 100 contracts are -0.3% with all Mag 7 names lower premarket; European equities are little changed.Treasuries are lower, pushing 10Y yields up 0.5bps to 4.175%. The Bloomberg dollar index is at session lows. Brent crude dropped 1.6% below $60 a barrel for the first time since May and gold pulled back after five days of gains. Bitcoin sank more than 1% before recovering above $87,000. The non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m., will include more uncertainty and quirks than usual. Consensus among economists for November is at 50k, while the whisper number is 22k. On today' calendar, Non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate for November are due at 8:30 a.m. ET. We also get the October retail sales data at that time. December US PMIs for the manufacturing and services industries are due at 9:45 a.m.

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are lower: Alphabet -0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%, Meta -0.6%, Tesla -1%

• Accenture (ACN) shares rise 1.9% after Morgan Stanley upgraded to overweight from equal-weight, saying the stock now trades at a compelling valuation following this year’s pullback.
• Cognex (CGNX) is up 3.7% after being raised to buy from sell at Goldman Sachs, with the broker noting organic growth is at an inflection point and margin recovery is underway after several years of underperformance.
• Organogenesis (ORGO) climbs 9.5% after the biotech said it plans to begin submitting ReNu, a product to treat knee osteoarthritis pain, to US regulators by the end of 2025.

The non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m., will include more uncertainty and quirks than usual. Consensus among economists for November is at 50k,with a range of -20k to 130k, while the whisper number is 22k. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.5%. Bloomberg Economics believes the US economy could have added as many as 130k jobs. The jobs report will also include an estimate of October payrolls — figures that were delayed by the federal shutdown. The stakes are high, but the huge range of estimates suggests no-one really knows what to expect (see our preview here). A print that reinforces the picture of a sluggish economy could put the stock rally back on track by supporting bets for further rate cuts, while a big miss may spook markets.

“The employment numbers would need to surprise materially — either significantly stronger or weaker than expected — to meaningfully shift market expectations,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer.

The setup is cautious going into the today' jobs. There’s rotation out of tech, dollar weakness and declines for oil and copper. Bitcoin dropped below $86,000 for the first time in two weeks, slipping deeper into bear market territory. Still, fund managers in Bank of America’s latest survey aren’t worried — going into the new year, they’re the most bullish they’ve been since 2021.

Rate reductions and robust growth have propelled the MSCI All-Country World Index to a gain of almost 20% in 2025, notching a third straight year of double-digit increases. According to a Bank of America' monthly Fund Managers Survey, money managers are confident about the outlook for 2026. Investor sentiment as measured by cash levels, stock allocation and global growth expectations rose to 7.4 in December on a scale capped at 10, the most bullish survey outcome in four-and-a-half years. 

The improved prospects of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia are showing up in the equity space, where European defense names underperform. Technology stocks are the worst performers in Europe, tracking a similar trend on Wall Street on Monday and Asia overnight. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2%, with defense shares lagging while chemical stocks outperform. European defense stocks fell on the speculation around a possible ceasefire, with Germany’s Rheinmetall AG dropping as much as 4.6%, and Italy’s Leonardo SpA falling 4.5%.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• IG Group shares jump as much as 5.6% to an all-time high, after the trading platform said it will deliver its medium-term revenue growth targets ahead of schedule in 2026.
• UBS shares climb as much as 3%, touching their highest level since 2008, after Bank of America analysts said the Swiss lender is set to grow earnings per share at the fastest sequential pace of any bank globally.
• Raiffeisen Bank International shares rise as much as 2.9%, to the highest level since April 2011, as Oddo BHF starts coverage at outperform and says the Austrian lender’s scope to re-rate is still being overlooked.
• Aperam shares gain as much as 5.6% after Morgan Stanley says sentiment is turning more constructive on European stainless steel, with policy measures providing a floor.
• Abivax shares drop as much as 8.7% after the French biotechnology company reported third-quarter financial results that Van Lanschot Kempen analysts called “uneventful.”
• Saab shares sink as much as 6.6%, leading defense stocks lower, after President Donald Trump said a negotiated end to the war is “closer” than ever.
• Telefonica shares fall as much as 4.7% after newspaper El Economista reports the firm is set to replace CFO Laura Abasolo.

Earlier, Asian equities fell, with South Korea leading a broad selloff as traders awaited fresh signals on the sustainability of the tech-driven rally toward the end of the year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4%, the most since Nov. 21, with AI beneficiaries TSMC and Alibaba among the biggest drags. Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 2%, with benchmarks also down more than 1% in Hong Kong, Japan and mainland China. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.5%. Optimism around AI-driven growth is giving way to concerns that valuations have baked in more than companies can deliver. Investors also awaited a report on the US labor market for clues on the health of the world’s largest economy and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts that have provided a further tailwind for global stocks. Uncertainty over China’s economy is also weighing on sentiment, after a lack of strong stimulus measures emerging from recent government meetings. The MSCI China Index fell as much as 2.3% Tuesday, taking its declines from an Oct. 2 high to more than 10%.

In FX, the pound tops the G-10 pile, gaining 0.3% against the greenback which is trading near session lows. 

In rates, treasuries hold small losses in early US trading amid a selloff in gilts after stronger-than-expected December UK PMI readings. US yields are less than 1bp higher on the day, the 10-year near 4.175% with UK counterpart cheaper by an additional 3bp. Treasury curve spreads also are within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels, with recent steepening trend intact The US session features delayed November jobs report as well as October retail sales and S&P Global US PMIs. WTI crude oil futures extend their slide, approaching year’s low as indications grow that supply is outpacing demand. Bunds edge up after euro-area PMI was less encouraging.  Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. 

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 1.6% to $59.60 a barrel on oversupply concerns and signs that Russia and Ukraine are edging closer to a ceasefire. Spot gold drops $30 to around $4,275/oz. Bitcoin rises 1% to above $87,000.

Looking at today' calendar, US economic calendar includes November employment, October retail sales and December New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am) and September business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers are scheduled

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.17%
• VIX +0.5 points at 17.03
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.25
• euro little changed at $1.1758
• WTI crude -1.9% at $55.75/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Traders are weighing the prospect of a possible end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, sending oil and defense stocks lower. US negotiators offered more significant security guarantees to Kyiv as part of Trump’s renewed push to end Russia’s war, but the effort still appeared part of a bid to pressure Zelenskiy on territory. BBG
• Senators in both parties are bracing for another government shutdown next year after Republicans blocked a proposal to extend expiring health insurance subsidies, the issue that triggered the 43-day closure that consumed much of the fall calendar. The Hill
• US suspended implementing a technology deal it struck with the UK amid growing frustrations in Washington over progress of trade talks with London: FT.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that Congressional stock trading must end.
• Nasdaq is seeking SEC approval to extend trading to 23 hours during the work week by adding a new session from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET. That would be in addition to existing premarket, regular and postmarket hours. BBG
• UK flash PMIs come in ahead of expectations, including services at 52.1 (up from 51.3 in Nov and above the consensus at 51.6) and manufacturing at 51.2 (up from 50.2 in Nov and above the consensus at 50.3). S&P
• Eurozone flash PMIs fall short of expectations, including manufacturing at 49.2 (down from 49.6 in Nov and below the consensus forecast of 49.9) and services at 52.6 (down from 53.6 in Nov and below the consensus forecast of 53.3) while inflationary pressures strengthened. S&P
• Two days of intense negotiations between Ukraine, the U.S. and European officials resulted in clear progress on security guarantees for Ukraine but left significant gaps on the issue of territory. Axios
• The U.S. is offering Ukraine security guarantees similar to those it would receive as part of NATO, American officials said Monday. The offer is the strongest and most explicit security pledge the Trump administration has put forward for Ukraine, but it comes with an implicit ultimatum: Take it now or the next iteration won’t be as generous. Politico
• Washington is preparing to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers as the White House ratchets up pressure on Maduro. Axios
• The yen outperformed all its major peers ahead of the BOJ’s widely anticipated move to lift its benchmark interest rate this week. BBG
• NFP Preview from Goldman: "We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 10k (70k private) in October and by 55k (50k private) in November, a touch above consensus of +50k in November but below the three-month average of +62k."

Trade/Tariffs

• US suspended implementing a technology deal it struck with the UK amid growing frustrations in Washington over progress of trade talks with London, according to FT.
• China's Commerce Ministry said China will charge tariffs of 19.8% on EU pork effective Dec 17th; Tariff range will be from 4.9-19.8%. Adds that investigation found pork products being dumped, harming Chinese producers.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower after the weak lead from Wall Street, as the tech-related pressure rolled over into the region. ASX 200 marginally declined amid underperformance in the tech, energy and resources sectors, while data showed consumer sentiment deteriorated. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 50,000 level amid a firmer currency, BoJ rate hike expectations and underperformance in tech and electronics stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were hit amid the tech woes, with the sector heavily represented in the list of worst-performing stocks in the Hong Kong benchmark.

Top Asian News

• China Securities Times commentary noted that China should set a positive yet 'pragmatic' 2026 GDP growth target with leeway, while researchers are said to be divided between an around 5% or 4.5%-5.0% growth target for 2026.
• XPeng (9868 HK) has obtained a Level 3 autonomous driving road test licence in Guangzhou, via Yicai.
• Japan's FY26 initial draft budget will be in excess of JPY 120tln, via Kyodo.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened broadly lower, and then some indices gradually clambered into the green, to now display a mixed/mostly lower picture. Initial pressure followed on from a downbeat mood in Asia, which in turn was weighed on by tech-related downside in the US. European sectors opened mixed, but now hold a positive bias. Chemicals leads, followed closely by Autos, whilst Tech  lags. For the autos sector, sentiment has been boosted following comments by an EU Lawmaker who suggested that the EU will have a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions for auto fleet targets from 2035.

Top European News

• UK financial regulator is considering a revamp of capital requirements for specialist trading firms and sees a real opportunity to make rules more proportionate and boost UK competitiveness, while options on the table include tweaking EU-aligned rules, aligning with the US approach, or allowing trading firms to use internal models.
• EU Lawmaker Weber said the EU will have a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions for auto fleet targets from 2035.
• EU Commission to propose extending the carbon border levy to downstream aluminium and steel products, according to Reuters detailing a draft document.
• The EU is to propose a new fund to support EU industries by using 25% of revenues collect from carbon border levy, according to Reuters citing a draft proposal

FX

• DXY is flat and trades within narrow 98.17 to 98.32 range, with price action incredibly lacklustre as traders count down their clocks into the US NFP Payrolls figure for October, and the full November jobs report. In brief, the November NFP is expected to show 35k jobs added, while the unemployment rate is seen at 4.4%. November's delayed employment report will incorporate October payrolls, though October's unemployment rate will be absent after the shutdown halted household survey collection. [Full preview in the Newsquawk Research Suite]
• GBP/USD is firmer against both the EUR and USD after hawkish PMI and LFS reports, the latter which saw wage figures above consensus and the priors subject to upward revisions. Employment figures signalled continued weakening in hiring, with the unemployment rate ticking up in line with expectations and payroll change across public and private sectors remaining in contraction. Currently trading at the upper end of a 1.3356 to 1.3415 range.
• JPY outperforms vs peers, in continuation of the strength seen in the prior session as markets look towards the BoJ at the end of the week where a 25bps hike is widely expected. Overnight, Japanese PMIs were mixed with surprising strength in manufacturing but weakness in services; metrics ultimately did little to move the yen. USD/JPY trades within a 154.69-155.26 range.
• EUR/USD is little changed, but did chop surrounding the release of differing PMI reports across the EZ. EUR initially saw marginal strength after French manufacturing PMI surprisingly rose into expansionary territory, with the report citing the robust aviation industry - but earlier strength was then reversed on the weak German report which showed manufacturing slip further into contraction. EUR is flat against the USD in narrow 1.1745-1.1763 parameters. The next level to the upside is Monday's high at 1.1769.

Fixed Income

• USTs are trading within a narrow sub-5 tick range (112-10+ to 112-14), with price action incredibly lacklustre this morning as traders wait for the US NFP Payrolls figure for October, and the full November jobs report [Full preview in the Newsquawk Research Suite]. In brief, the November NFP is expected to show 35k jobs added, while the unemployment rate is seen at 4.4%. November's delayed employment report will incorporate October payrolls, though October's unemployment rate will be absent after the shutdown halted household survey collection.
• Bunds have chopped and changed within a 127.49 to 127.65 range, but currently trading just off best levels. Initial action was slightly bearish, following Gilt pressure after the UK’s jobs report (see below). Thereafter, French PMI figures (which were mixed, but Manufacturing surprisingly climbed in expansionary territory), sparked modest pressure in the benchmark to a session low. This then entirely reversed on a poor German report, which missed expectations across the board, taking Bund Mar’26 to a session high. EZ PMI figures also printed below expectations, putting the blame on Germany; the inner report highlighted that “it is clear that price pressure, driven in part by wage increases, is still noticeable”.
• Gilts opened near enough unchanged from the close yesterday, but then tumbled lower as markets digested the UK’s jobs report. In essence, the unemployment rate ticked higher, in-line with expectations, whilst Employment Chance was a better than feared. Focus is also on the Wages components, which topped expectations. Overall, metrics should not change much for policymakers at the BoE, with something for both the doves (cooling labour market), and the hawks (rising wages); a view also shared by analysts at Pantheon Macro, writing that “today’s data will keep the balance of views on the MPC little changed”. Money markets continue to assign a 91% chance of a 25bps reduction this Thursday. Thereafter, UK paper took another leg lower on the region’s PMI figures, which topped expectations – taking the benchmark below the 91.00 mark to a fresh tough of 90.83 vs current 90.90.
• UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.125% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.23x (prev. 3.01x), average yield 4.093% (prev. 4.088%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.6bps)

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have continued to sell off with Brent dipping below USD 60/bbl for the first time since May 2025. WTI and Brent traded rangebound in a USD 56.19-56.54/bbl and USD 60.08-60.39/bbl band throughout the APAC session as the markets consolidated following Monday’s selloff. As the European traders entered, benchmarks extended lower, aided by comments from Russia’s Ryabkov stating that a resolution on the Ukraine war is near. WTI and Brent dipped to a trough of USD 55.69/bbl and USD 59.42/bbl before slightly paring back earlier losses. However, Brent continues to trade below USD 60/bbl.
• Spot XAU has continued to grind lower, dipping below USD 4.3k/oz, but losses remain relatively contained compared to silver and copper. XAU peaked to a high of USD 4318/oz during the APAC session before selling off, with losses accelerating as the yellow metal broke USD 4300/oz to the downside, before buyers stepped in at USD 4272/oz. Thus far, XAU trades in a tight USD 4276-4292/oz band near lows as the European session gets underway.
• 3M LME Copper fell as the APAC session commenced, and as the stateside risk-off mood rolled over into Asia-Pac equities. The red metal opened at USD 11.64k/t and initially saw slight upside to peak at USD 11.68k/t before falling to a trough of USD 11.53k/t. In the European morning, 3M LME copper continues to trade near USD 11.6k/t as markets await a flurry of US data.

Geopolitics

• Ukrainian President Zelensky later said there was still no ideal peace plan as of now, and the current draft is a working version, while he added the US wants to proceed quickly to peace and that Ukraine needs to ensure the quality of this peace. Zelensky said there is agreement that security guarantees should be put to a vote in Congress and said they are really close to strong security guarantees, while he hopes to meet with US President Trump when the final framework for peace is ready. He also stated that there will be no free economic zone in Donbas under Russian control and that Ukraine will not recognise Donbas as Russian either de jure or de facto, as well as noted that Ukraine will ask the US for more weapons if Russia rejects the peace plan. Furthermore, he said Ukraine and US negotiators could meet this weekend in the US, and that Ukraine and the US support German Chancellor Merz's idea of a Christmas ceasefire, with an energy ceasefire an option.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said certain Ukraine war resolution is near, according to TASS. Ryabkov also said Russia has no understanding of Berlin talks outcome so far, via RIA. They are ready to make efforts to overcome disagreements relating to the Ukraine crisis, via Ria. Not willing to make any concessions re. Crimea, Donbas and Novorossiya. Russia will not agree to the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine under any circumstances, via RIA.
• Russia's Kremlin said do not want a ceasefire which will provide a pause for Ukraine to better prepare for continuation of war. On the Ukrainian proposal for Christmas truce, said "depends whether we reach a deal or not.". Did not see the details of the proposals on security guarantees for Ukraine yet.
• Al Jazeera correspondent reports Israeli airstrikes in areas east of Gaza City.
• US is preparing to seize more sanctioned oil-filled tankers off Venezuela, according to Axios citing officials. The president has many tools in the toolbox, and "this is a big one". So far, Trump doesn't want to move into Venezuelan waters to seize ships. "But if they make us wait too long, we might get a warrant to get them there," in Venezuelan waters.
• US military said it carried out strikes on free vessels in international waters, which killed eight people.
• China's Foreign Ministry on Japan's comments about Chinese defence spending said Japan 'groundlessly accused' China and maliciously smearing China's legitimate national defence building

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 50k
• 8:30 am: Nov Change in Private Payrolls, est. 50k
• 8:30 am: Nov Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -5k
• 8:30 am: Nov Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Nov Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.6%
• 8:30 am: Nov Unemployment Rate, est. 4.5%
• 8:30 am: Oct Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Oct Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Oct Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.36%, prior 0.1%
• 9:45 am: Dec P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.05, prior 52.2
• 9:45 am: Dec P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 54, prior 54.1
• 9:45 am: Dec P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 53.9, prior 54.2
• 10:00 am: Sep Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior 0%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have struggled at the start of this week so far ahead of a busy few days. Weak data yesterday led to a bit more concern about the 2026 outlook. So that meant the S&P 500 (-0.16%) fell back for a second day, Treasury yields generally dipped (-1.1bps for 10yr), Brent crude oil closed at a 7-month low of $60.56/bbl, whilst the US 2yr inflation swap (-5.6bps) hit a fresh one-year low. There were more headlines that may ultimately inch us towards a compromise on the war in Ukraine that likely helped oil dip. However, on the other side, Kevin Warsh has emerged as favourite for the Fed Chair for the first time on Polymarket, with Hassett losing this position after being in the lead for virtually all of the last couple of months. S&P (-0.50%) and Nasdaq (-0.74%) futures are extending declines this morning with Asian equities generally down -1.5 to -2%.

The narrative is all subject to change though, as today marks the start of a series of top-tier data releases and central bank decisions. That begins with the US jobs report for November, along with a partial report for October, which is out at 13:30 London time. For context, the shutdown meant that data stopped being collected, so even though we’ll get the payrolls numbers for both October and November, there’s only going to be an unemployment rate for November. When it comes to the data itself, these numbers are likely to be very choppy because of the shutdown, but our US economists expect that payrolls will be down -60k in October, due to early year government buy-outs all coming through this month, followed by a bounce back of +50k in November. By contrast, they think that private payrolls will have a much smoother path of +50k for both months. Meanwhile for unemployment, they see the rate ticking up to a 4-year high of 4.5% in November.

From a market perspective, the most important question is whether the report opens the door for more rate cuts in the early part of next year. As it stands, the Fed have only signalled one further cut for 2026 in the dot plot, but we’ve repeatedly seen in this cycle how a softer labour market has pushed them back in a dovish direction. Indeed, Powell had said in late-October that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion”, but after the unemployment rate ticked up again, the cut was priced back in, which they delivered last week.

US Treasuries initially rallied ahead of the jobs report, and the move got further momentum because of the latest Empire State manufacturing survey. That fell by more than expected to -3.9 in December (vs. 10.0 expected), which was beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. So investors priced in more rate cuts for the next few months, with the likelihood of a rate cut by March ticking up to 60%, having been at 54% on Friday. However yields turned back higher late in the European session, with the 10yr (-1.1bps to 4.17%) closing nearly 3bps above the session lows, while 2yr yields were -2.0bps lower on the day to 3.50%.   

The partial reversal in yields came after headlines on the next Fed Chair, as CNBC reported that Kevin Hassett’s candidacy had received some pushback from people close to Trump. The article said this was based more around promoting former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, rather than criticising Hassett. So that article was seen as confirming the recent momentum behind Warsh, particularly after Trump recently said in a WSJ interview that “I think the two Kevins are great”. Indeed, yesterday marked the first time in nearly 3 weeks that Hassett was no longer the favourite on Polymarket, and as we go to press this morning, Warsh is pulling ahead on 48%, with Hassett behind on 40%. Meanwhile, the latest Fed commentary saw NY Fed President Williams echo Powell’s tone that policy is well positioned into next year, while Boston Fed President Collins said last week’s rate cut was a “close call” given lingering inflation risks.

The backdrop proved to be a headwind for US equities, as the weak data meant investors became more doubtful on the near-term outlook. So after futures were strong before the open, the S&P 500 (-0.16%) ended up building on its losses from last Friday, with tech stocks in the NASDAQ (-0.59%) seeing even bigger declines. That said, it was a mixed story within tech, with Broadcom (-5.59%) and Oracle (-2.66%) extending their declines from last week, but the Magnificent 7 (+0.13%) narrowly advancing, led by a +3.56% gain for Tesla. The challenging tech mood saw Bitcoin fall -2.55% to $86,204, its lowest in three weeks. It wasn’t all bad news however, with most S&P 500 constituents higher on the day, led by defensive sectors such as health care (+1.27%) and utilities (+0.88%).

As discussed at the top, Asian markets are weak this morning. Tech-heavy exchanges are seeing the biggest drops, with the Hang Seng down -2.09%, followed by the KOSPI at -1.85%, and the Nikkei at -1.47%. Chinese markets, including the CSI (-1.41%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.25%), are also falling for a second day after yesterday's weak November activity and real estate data. That's offsetting hopes of fresh stimulus for now. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is outperforming but still down -0.42%. US Treasuries have dipped down a basis point.  

In earlier economic news, Japan's manufacturing sector showed improvement in December, with the S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7 from 48.7. This indicates a move closer to expansion, supported by better domestic and international demand for industrial goods and automobiles. Japan's services sector remains strong, with the flash Services PMI at 52.5, slightly down from 53.2 but still showing solid growth driven by domestic consumption and resilient demand in service industries. Elsewhere, Australia's private sector also continued to expand in December, albeit at a slower pace. The S&P Global flash services PMI decreased to 51.0 from 52.8, impacted by increased competition and a more moderate rise in new export business. However, the manufacturing sector proved more resilient, with its preliminary PMI increasing to 52.2 from 51.6, thanks to stronger goods demand and improved export orders.

Earlier in Europe, markets had been more consistently positive, with both equities and bonds advancing. In part, that was supported by headlines on the Ukraine peace talks. Ukrainian officials touted “real progress” from talks in Berlin with US officials reportedly offering “Article-5 like” security guarantees and Trump saying later that “we are closer now than we have been ever” to peace. Further talks are expected in the US this weekend, while the EU leaders’ summit this Thursday will discuss “reparations loans” to fund Ukraine. Peter Sidorov reviews the latest proposals and their implications for European policy in a note this morning.

Those Ukraine headlines put more downward pressure on oil prices and yields on 10yr bunds (-0.4bps), OATs (-1.2bps) and BTPs (-1.5bps) all moved lower. Meanwhile, equities advanced across Europe, with the STOXX 600 (+0.74%) closing just shy of its record high last month, and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+1.22%) hit a fresh record. The euro (+0.11%) posted a fourth consecutive advance against the US dollar to reach its strongest level since September at 1.1753. European equity futures are back down around half a percent this morning given the global overnight sell-off.  

Over in Canada, sovereign bonds outperformed after their latest CPI report was beneath expectations. Specifically, headline inflation was at +2.2% in November (vs. +2.3% expected), and both measures of core CPI followed by the Bank of Canada were at +2.8% (vs +2.9% expected). That meant Canadian bonds outperformed, with 10yr yields down -2.9bps on the day.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US jobs report for November, retail sales for October, and the December flash PMIs from the US and Europe. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 07:42

Europe Is About To Commit Financial Self-Immolation & Its Leaders Know It

Authored by Gerry Nolan via The Ron Paul Institute

Italy’s decision to stand with Belgium against the confiscation of Russian sovereign assets is not a diplomatic footnote. It is a moment of clarity breaking through the fog of performative morality that has engulfed Brussels. Strip away the slogans and the truth is unavoidable: the seizure of Russian sovereign reserves will not change the course of the war in Ukraine by a single inch.

This is not about funding Ukraine, it is about whether sovereign property still exists in a Western financial system that has quietly replaced law with cult-like obedience. That is why panic has entered the room.

The European Commission wants to pretend this is a clever workaround, a one-off, an emergency measure wrapped in legal contortions and moral posturing masquerading as hysteria. But finance does not function on intentions, rage, or narratives. It functions on precedent, trust, and enforceability. And once that trust is broken, it does not return.

The modern global financial system rests on a single, unglamorous principle, that State assets held in foreign jurisdictions are legally immune from political confiscation.

via EU Commission 

That principle underwrites reserve currencies, correspondent banking, sovereign debt markets, and cross-border investment. It is why central banks like Russia’s (once) accepted euros instead of bullion shipped under armed guard. It is why settlement systems like Euroclear exist at all. Once that rule is broken, capital does not debate. It reprices risk instantly and it leaves.

Confiscation sends a message to every country outside the Western political orbit: your savings are safe only as long as you remain politically compliant.

That is not a rules-based order. It is a selectively enforced order whose rules change the moment compliance ends. What we have is a compliance cartel, enforcing law upward and punishment downward, depending on who obeys and who resists.

Belgium’s fear is not legalistic. It is actuarial. Hosting Euroclear means hosting systemic risk. If Russia or any future target successfully challenges the seizure, Belgium could be exposed to claims that dwarf the sums being discussed. Belgium is therefore right to be skeptical of Europe’s promise to underwrite such colossal risk, given the bloc’s now shattered credibility. No serious financial actor would treat such guarantees as reliable.

Italy’s hesitation is not ideological. It is mathematical. With one of Europe’s heaviest debt burdens, Rome understands what happens when markets begin questioning the neutrality of reserve currencies and custodians.

Neither country suddenly developed sympathy for Moscow. They simply did the arithmetic before the slogans.

Paris and London, meanwhile, thunder publicly while quietly insulating their own commercial banks’ exposure to Russian sovereign assets, exposure measured not in rhetoric, but in tens of billions. French financial institutions alone hold an estimated €15–20 billion, while UK-linked banks and custodial structures account for roughly £20–25 billion, much of it routed through London’s clearing and custody ecosystem rather than sitting on government balance sheets.

This hypocrisy and cowardice are not accidental. Paris and London sit at the heart of global custodial banking, derivatives clearing, and FX settlement, nodes embedded deep within the plumbing of global finance. Retaliatory seizures or accelerated capital flight would not be symbolic for them; they would be catastrophic.

So the burden is shifted outward. Smaller states are expected to absorb systemic risk while core financial centers preserve deniability, play a double game, and posture as virtuous.

This is anything but European solidarity. It is class defense at the international level.

The increasingly shrill insistence from the Eurocrats that the assets must be seized betrays something far more revealing than hysteria or resolve: the unmasking of a project sustained by delusion and Russophobic dogma, in which moral certainty did not arise from conviction, but functioned as a mechanism for managing cognitive dissonance, a means of avoiding realities that any serious strategy would already have been forced to confront.

Not confidence, but exposure. Exposure of a war Europe never possessed the power to decide, only the capacity to prolong. Exposure of a financial system discovering that money, once stripped of neutrality and weaponized, forfeits its credibility as capital. And exposure of a ruling class confronting the reality that performance, however theatrical, cannot substitute for power that has long since been exhausted – power Europe relinquished decades ago when it outsourced real sovereignty to Washington.

Looting Russian reserves will not shorten the conflict. It will not pressure Moscow into capitulation. It will not meaningfully finance Ukraine’s future. And this is not because Europe has miscalculated, it is because Europe has knowingly abandoned reality.

There is no serious actor in Europe who does not understand how wars are won. They know that Russia’s war effort is driven by industrial throughput, manpower depth, logistics resilience, and continental scale and that on every one of these axes Russia has expanded its advantage while Europe has accelerated its collapse. Russia has retooled its defense-industrial base for sustained output, secured energy and raw materials at scale, reoriented trade beyond Western choke points, and absorbed sanctions as a catalyst for growth. This is not conjecture. It is observable fact.

This move will permanently accelerate reserve diversification away from the euro, expand bilateral settlement, hasten gold repatriation, and entrench non-Western clearing systems, and it will do so immediately.

What is being exposed here is not Russian vulnerability, but Western exhaustion. When economies can no longer compete through production, innovation, or growth, they turn to banditry. Asset seizure is not a sign of strength, but he terminal behavior of a rentier system that has exhausted surplus and begun consuming its own foundations.

This decision does not defend any lingering illusion of Western dominance. It advertises its expiry. The turn toward policing speech in Europe did not happen in a vacuum.

The Digital Services Act, platform intimidation, and the policing of dissent is all about pre-emptive damage control. European elites understand that the consequences of this policy will land squarely on households.

The people who will pay for this are not sitting in Commission buildings, they are the ones whose pensions, currencies, and living standards are being quietly offered up to preserve a collapsing illusion of power.

That is why dissent had to be neutralized before confiscation could be attempted. Not after. Criticism was pre-emptively reclassified as disinformation. Debate was recoded as existential danger. Speech itself was reframed as a security threat.

In their desperation to punish Russia, Europe’s leadership is handing Moscow something far more valuable than €210 billion. They are validating every argument held by the Global Majority about Western hypocrisy, legal nihilism, and financial coercion. They are demonstrating that sovereignty within the Western system is provisional, granted conditionally, revoked politically.

Empires do not collapse because they are challenged. They collapse because they cannibalize the systems that once made them legitimate.

This seizure will not be remembered as a blow against Moscow. It will be remembered as the moment Europe told the world that property rights end where obedience begins.

Once that message is received, there is no reset.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 07:20

Europe Is About To Commit Financial Self-Immolation & Its Leaders Know It

Authored by Gerry Nolan via The Ron Paul Institute

Italy’s decision to stand with Belgium against the confiscation of Russian sovereign assets is not a diplomatic footnote. It is a moment of clarity breaking through the fog of performative morality that has engulfed Brussels. Strip away the slogans and the truth is unavoidable: the seizure of Russian sovereign reserves will not change the course of the war in Ukraine by a single inch.

This is not about funding Ukraine, it is about whether sovereign property still exists in a Western financial system that has quietly replaced law with cult-like obedience. That is why panic has entered the room.

The European Commission wants to pretend this is a clever workaround, a one-off, an emergency measure wrapped in legal contortions and moral posturing masquerading as hysteria. But finance does not function on intentions, rage, or narratives. It functions on precedent, trust, and enforceability. And once that trust is broken, it does not return.

The modern global financial system rests on a single, unglamorous principle, that State assets held in foreign jurisdictions are legally immune from political confiscation.

via EU Commission 

That principle underwrites reserve currencies, correspondent banking, sovereign debt markets, and cross-border investment. It is why central banks like Russia’s (once) accepted euros instead of bullion shipped under armed guard. It is why settlement systems like Euroclear exist at all. Once that rule is broken, capital does not debate. It reprices risk instantly and it leaves.

Confiscation sends a message to every country outside the Western political orbit: your savings are safe only as long as you remain politically compliant.

That is not a rules-based order. It is a selectively enforced order whose rules change the moment compliance ends. What we have is a compliance cartel, enforcing law upward and punishment downward, depending on who obeys and who resists.

Belgium’s fear is not legalistic. It is actuarial. Hosting Euroclear means hosting systemic risk. If Russia or any future target successfully challenges the seizure, Belgium could be exposed to claims that dwarf the sums being discussed. Belgium is therefore right to be skeptical of Europe’s promise to underwrite such colossal risk, given the bloc’s now shattered credibility. No serious financial actor would treat such guarantees as reliable.

Italy’s hesitation is not ideological. It is mathematical. With one of Europe’s heaviest debt burdens, Rome understands what happens when markets begin questioning the neutrality of reserve currencies and custodians.

Neither country suddenly developed sympathy for Moscow. They simply did the arithmetic before the slogans.

Paris and London, meanwhile, thunder publicly while quietly insulating their own commercial banks’ exposure to Russian sovereign assets, exposure measured not in rhetoric, but in tens of billions. French financial institutions alone hold an estimated €15–20 billion, while UK-linked banks and custodial structures account for roughly £20–25 billion, much of it routed through London’s clearing and custody ecosystem rather than sitting on government balance sheets.

This hypocrisy and cowardice are not accidental. Paris and London sit at the heart of global custodial banking, derivatives clearing, and FX settlement, nodes embedded deep within the plumbing of global finance. Retaliatory seizures or accelerated capital flight would not be symbolic for them; they would be catastrophic.

So the burden is shifted outward. Smaller states are expected to absorb systemic risk while core financial centers preserve deniability, play a double game, and posture as virtuous.

This is anything but European solidarity. It is class defense at the international level.

The increasingly shrill insistence from the Eurocrats that the assets must be seized betrays something far more revealing than hysteria or resolve: the unmasking of a project sustained by delusion and Russophobic dogma, in which moral certainty did not arise from conviction, but functioned as a mechanism for managing cognitive dissonance, a means of avoiding realities that any serious strategy would already have been forced to confront.

Not confidence, but exposure. Exposure of a war Europe never possessed the power to decide, only the capacity to prolong. Exposure of a financial system discovering that money, once stripped of neutrality and weaponized, forfeits its credibility as capital. And exposure of a ruling class confronting the reality that performance, however theatrical, cannot substitute for power that has long since been exhausted – power Europe relinquished decades ago when it outsourced real sovereignty to Washington.

Looting Russian reserves will not shorten the conflict. It will not pressure Moscow into capitulation. It will not meaningfully finance Ukraine’s future. And this is not because Europe has miscalculated, it is because Europe has knowingly abandoned reality.

There is no serious actor in Europe who does not understand how wars are won. They know that Russia’s war effort is driven by industrial throughput, manpower depth, logistics resilience, and continental scale and that on every one of these axes Russia has expanded its advantage while Europe has accelerated its collapse. Russia has retooled its defense-industrial base for sustained output, secured energy and raw materials at scale, reoriented trade beyond Western choke points, and absorbed sanctions as a catalyst for growth. This is not conjecture. It is observable fact.

This move will permanently accelerate reserve diversification away from the euro, expand bilateral settlement, hasten gold repatriation, and entrench non-Western clearing systems, and it will do so immediately.

What is being exposed here is not Russian vulnerability, but Western exhaustion. When economies can no longer compete through production, innovation, or growth, they turn to banditry. Asset seizure is not a sign of strength, but he terminal behavior of a rentier system that has exhausted surplus and begun consuming its own foundations.

This decision does not defend any lingering illusion of Western dominance. It advertises its expiry. The turn toward policing speech in Europe did not happen in a vacuum.

The Digital Services Act, platform intimidation, and the policing of dissent is all about pre-emptive damage control. European elites understand that the consequences of this policy will land squarely on households.

The people who will pay for this are not sitting in Commission buildings, they are the ones whose pensions, currencies, and living standards are being quietly offered up to preserve a collapsing illusion of power.

That is why dissent had to be neutralized before confiscation could be attempted. Not after. Criticism was pre-emptively reclassified as disinformation. Debate was recoded as existential danger. Speech itself was reframed as a security threat.

In their desperation to punish Russia, Europe’s leadership is handing Moscow something far more valuable than €210 billion. They are validating every argument held by the Global Majority about Western hypocrisy, legal nihilism, and financial coercion. They are demonstrating that sovereignty within the Western system is provisional, granted conditionally, revoked politically.

Empires do not collapse because they are challenged. They collapse because they cannibalize the systems that once made them legitimate.

This seizure will not be remembered as a blow against Moscow. It will be remembered as the moment Europe told the world that property rights end where obedience begins.

Once that message is received, there is no reset.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 07:20

Europe Is About To Commit Financial Self-Immolation & Its Leaders Know It

Authored by Gerry Nolan via The Ron Paul Institute

Italy’s decision to stand with Belgium against the confiscation of Russian sovereign assets is not a diplomatic footnote. It is a moment of clarity breaking through the fog of performative morality that has engulfed Brussels. Strip away the slogans and the truth is unavoidable: the seizure of Russian sovereign reserves will not change the course of the war in Ukraine by a single inch.

This is not about funding Ukraine, it is about whether sovereign property still exists in a Western financial system that has quietly replaced law with cult-like obedience. That is why panic has entered the room.

The European Commission wants to pretend this is a clever workaround, a one-off, an emergency measure wrapped in legal contortions and moral posturing masquerading as hysteria. But finance does not function on intentions, rage, or narratives. It functions on precedent, trust, and enforceability. And once that trust is broken, it does not return.

The modern global financial system rests on a single, unglamorous principle, that State assets held in foreign jurisdictions are legally immune from political confiscation.

via EU Commission 

That principle underwrites reserve currencies, correspondent banking, sovereign debt markets, and cross-border investment. It is why central banks like Russia’s (once) accepted euros instead of bullion shipped under armed guard. It is why settlement systems like Euroclear exist at all. Once that rule is broken, capital does not debate. It reprices risk instantly and it leaves.

Confiscation sends a message to every country outside the Western political orbit: your savings are safe only as long as you remain politically compliant.

That is not a rules-based order. It is a selectively enforced order whose rules change the moment compliance ends. What we have is a compliance cartel, enforcing law upward and punishment downward, depending on who obeys and who resists.

Belgium’s fear is not legalistic. It is actuarial. Hosting Euroclear means hosting systemic risk. If Russia or any future target successfully challenges the seizure, Belgium could be exposed to claims that dwarf the sums being discussed. Belgium is therefore right to be skeptical of Europe’s promise to underwrite such colossal risk, given the bloc’s now shattered credibility. No serious financial actor would treat such guarantees as reliable.

Italy’s hesitation is not ideological. It is mathematical. With one of Europe’s heaviest debt burdens, Rome understands what happens when markets begin questioning the neutrality of reserve currencies and custodians.

Neither country suddenly developed sympathy for Moscow. They simply did the arithmetic before the slogans.

Paris and London, meanwhile, thunder publicly while quietly insulating their own commercial banks’ exposure to Russian sovereign assets, exposure measured not in rhetoric, but in tens of billions. French financial institutions alone hold an estimated €15–20 billion, while UK-linked banks and custodial structures account for roughly £20–25 billion, much of it routed through London’s clearing and custody ecosystem rather than sitting on government balance sheets.

This hypocrisy and cowardice are not accidental. Paris and London sit at the heart of global custodial banking, derivatives clearing, and FX settlement, nodes embedded deep within the plumbing of global finance. Retaliatory seizures or accelerated capital flight would not be symbolic for them; they would be catastrophic.

So the burden is shifted outward. Smaller states are expected to absorb systemic risk while core financial centers preserve deniability, play a double game, and posture as virtuous.

This is anything but European solidarity. It is class defense at the international level.

The increasingly shrill insistence from the Eurocrats that the assets must be seized betrays something far more revealing than hysteria or resolve: the unmasking of a project sustained by delusion and Russophobic dogma, in which moral certainty did not arise from conviction, but functioned as a mechanism for managing cognitive dissonance, a means of avoiding realities that any serious strategy would already have been forced to confront.

Not confidence, but exposure. Exposure of a war Europe never possessed the power to decide, only the capacity to prolong. Exposure of a financial system discovering that money, once stripped of neutrality and weaponized, forfeits its credibility as capital. And exposure of a ruling class confronting the reality that performance, however theatrical, cannot substitute for power that has long since been exhausted – power Europe relinquished decades ago when it outsourced real sovereignty to Washington.

Looting Russian reserves will not shorten the conflict. It will not pressure Moscow into capitulation. It will not meaningfully finance Ukraine’s future. And this is not because Europe has miscalculated, it is because Europe has knowingly abandoned reality.

There is no serious actor in Europe who does not understand how wars are won. They know that Russia’s war effort is driven by industrial throughput, manpower depth, logistics resilience, and continental scale and that on every one of these axes Russia has expanded its advantage while Europe has accelerated its collapse. Russia has retooled its defense-industrial base for sustained output, secured energy and raw materials at scale, reoriented trade beyond Western choke points, and absorbed sanctions as a catalyst for growth. This is not conjecture. It is observable fact.

This move will permanently accelerate reserve diversification away from the euro, expand bilateral settlement, hasten gold repatriation, and entrench non-Western clearing systems, and it will do so immediately.

What is being exposed here is not Russian vulnerability, but Western exhaustion. When economies can no longer compete through production, innovation, or growth, they turn to banditry. Asset seizure is not a sign of strength, but he terminal behavior of a rentier system that has exhausted surplus and begun consuming its own foundations.

This decision does not defend any lingering illusion of Western dominance. It advertises its expiry. The turn toward policing speech in Europe did not happen in a vacuum.

The Digital Services Act, platform intimidation, and the policing of dissent is all about pre-emptive damage control. European elites understand that the consequences of this policy will land squarely on households.

The people who will pay for this are not sitting in Commission buildings, they are the ones whose pensions, currencies, and living standards are being quietly offered up to preserve a collapsing illusion of power.

That is why dissent had to be neutralized before confiscation could be attempted. Not after. Criticism was pre-emptively reclassified as disinformation. Debate was recoded as existential danger. Speech itself was reframed as a security threat.

In their desperation to punish Russia, Europe’s leadership is handing Moscow something far more valuable than €210 billion. They are validating every argument held by the Global Majority about Western hypocrisy, legal nihilism, and financial coercion. They are demonstrating that sovereignty within the Western system is provisional, granted conditionally, revoked politically.

Empires do not collapse because they are challenged. They collapse because they cannibalize the systems that once made them legitimate.

This seizure will not be remembered as a blow against Moscow. It will be remembered as the moment Europe told the world that property rights end where obedience begins.

Once that message is received, there is no reset.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 07:20

Ford Takes Record $19.5 Billion Charge As EV Bet Implodes, Pivots To Grid Batteries

Shares of Ford in New York have yet to hit a new high since the debut of the all-electric F-150 Lightning in April 2022. What was pitched as a flagship EV push has since devolved into an epic miscalculation, with the automaker now preparing to take $19.5 billion in charges, mostly in the fourth quarter, as it unwinds and overhauls its electric vehicle strategy.

Ford is overhauling its entire electrification roadmap. The reset includes the cancellation of three future EV programs, the termination of the current F-150 Lightning, and a shift toward new offerings across multiple powertrains, including a future extended-range hybrid vehicle variant of the F-Series.

The pivot also entails a complete restructuring of battery operations, highlighted by the breakup of its partnership with South Korean battery maker SK On. The next chapter of Ford's strategy is a pivot toward grid-scale energy storage systems.

We've explained to readers that lithium prices are on the rise as EV battery makers pivot to energy storage systems:

• Grid-Scale Battery Boom Sparks Lithium’s Comeback

• Wall Street Eyes Lithium as Battery Storage Demand Poised to Spark New Upcycle

Last year, Ford lost a staggering $5.1 billion in its EV division and expects this year to be even worse. The pivot puts the struggling automaker's EV division on track for profitability by the end of the decade.

Here are the key highlights of the pivot:

• Offers broad choice with gas, hybrids, and EVs: Ford will offer a range of hybrids to complement efficient gas engines. The Universal EV Platform will underpin multiple models. By 2030, about 50% of Ford's global volume will be hybrids, extended-range EVs, and electric vehicles, versus 17% today.

• Fills U.S. plants with affordable new models: New Built Ford Tough pickups will be assembled at BlueOval City in Tennessee, and a new gas and hybrid van will be produced at the Ohio Assembly Plant. Ford plans to hire thousands of new employees in the U.S. in the next few years.

• Launches battery energy storage business: Ford will leverage wholly owned plants in Kentucky and Michigan and leading LFP technology to provide solutions for energy infrastructure and growing data center demand. Ford plans to begin shipping BESS systems in 2027 with 20 GWh of annual capacity.

• Improves profitability: Actions are expected to drive accretive returns and accelerate margin improvements across Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Blue. Ford Model e is now expected to reach profitability by 2029, with improvements beginning in 2026.

• Rationalizes U.S. EV-related assets and product roadmap: Ford expects to record about $19.5 billion in special items, with the majority in the fourth quarter. The company expects about $5.5 billion in cash effects, with most paid in 2026 and the remainder in 2027.

• Raises guidance: The company raised 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to about $7 billion, citing continued underlying business strength and cost improvements. It reaffirmed adjusted free cash flow guidance, trending toward the high end of the $2 billion to $3 billion range.

Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney offered clients their first take on the restructuring of Ford's EV unit:

We believe the realignment and restructuring actions will help improve the P&L as Ford reduces Model e losses and increases production of more profitable Blue and Pro vehicles. Over the longer term, we expect a key debate will center on how these actions impact Ford's ability to reach Model e profitability, particularly as it increasingly competes with Chinese OEMs outside of China. We think successful execution on the UEV platform and EREV technology, as well as software and digital services, will be key factors. On the ESS business, industry participants have historically seen varied margins, and we believe costs and the company's ability to deliver a full solution will be important determinants of long-term profitability.

On capital allocation:

We do not expect these charges to affect Ford's dividend. Recall that Ford's dividend target is based on 40% to 50% of adjusted free cash flow, and we believe these charges will be excluded from the adjusted FCF calculation. In addition, the company has a strong cash position on the balance sheet, in our view.

Goldman maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, raised EPS estimates to $1.16, $1.65, and $1.80 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and lifted its 12-month price target to $14 from $13, based on an unchanged 8x multiple on normalized EPS.

Ford shares have yet to recover since the F-150 EV debuted in April 2022.

In November, we reported that Ford mulled scrapping the EV truck:

• Ford Mulls Scrapping F-150 Lightning After Dismal Demand, Mounting Losses

The F-150 EV is shaping up to be America's first major EV casualty. Henry Ford would likely be turning over in his grave after such a massive miscalculation in chasing the "green" narrative. The question now is whether the board will hold management accountable for drinking the green Kool-Aid.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 06:59

Ford Takes Record $19.5 Billion Charge As EV Bet Implodes, Pivots To Grid Batteries

Shares of Ford in New York have yet to hit a new high since the debut of the all-electric F-150 Lightning in April 2022. What was pitched as a flagship EV push has since devolved into an epic miscalculation, with the automaker now preparing to take $19.5 billion in charges, mostly in the fourth quarter, as it unwinds and overhauls its electric vehicle strategy.

Ford is overhauling its entire electrification roadmap. The reset includes the cancellation of three future EV programs, the termination of the current F-150 Lightning, and a shift toward new offerings across multiple powertrains, including a future extended-range hybrid vehicle variant of the F-Series.

The pivot also entails a complete restructuring of battery operations, highlighted by the breakup of its partnership with South Korean battery maker SK On. The next chapter of Ford's strategy is a pivot toward grid-scale energy storage systems.

We've explained to readers that lithium prices are on the rise as EV battery makers pivot to energy storage systems:

• Grid-Scale Battery Boom Sparks Lithium’s Comeback

• Wall Street Eyes Lithium as Battery Storage Demand Poised to Spark New Upcycle

Last year, Ford lost a staggering $5.1 billion in its EV division and expects this year to be even worse. The pivot puts the struggling automaker's EV division on track for profitability by the end of the decade.

Here are the key highlights of the pivot:

• Offers broad choice with gas, hybrids, and EVs: Ford will offer a range of hybrids to complement efficient gas engines. The Universal EV Platform will underpin multiple models. By 2030, about 50% of Ford's global volume will be hybrids, extended-range EVs, and electric vehicles, versus 17% today.

• Fills U.S. plants with affordable new models: New Built Ford Tough pickups will be assembled at BlueOval City in Tennessee, and a new gas and hybrid van will be produced at the Ohio Assembly Plant. Ford plans to hire thousands of new employees in the U.S. in the next few years.

• Launches battery energy storage business: Ford will leverage wholly owned plants in Kentucky and Michigan and leading LFP technology to provide solutions for energy infrastructure and growing data center demand. Ford plans to begin shipping BESS systems in 2027 with 20 GWh of annual capacity.

• Improves profitability: Actions are expected to drive accretive returns and accelerate margin improvements across Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Blue. Ford Model e is now expected to reach profitability by 2029, with improvements beginning in 2026.

• Rationalizes U.S. EV-related assets and product roadmap: Ford expects to record about $19.5 billion in special items, with the majority in the fourth quarter. The company expects about $5.5 billion in cash effects, with most paid in 2026 and the remainder in 2027.

• Raises guidance: The company raised 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance to about $7 billion, citing continued underlying business strength and cost improvements. It reaffirmed adjusted free cash flow guidance, trending toward the high end of the $2 billion to $3 billion range.

Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney offered clients their first take on the restructuring of Ford's EV unit:

We believe the realignment and restructuring actions will help improve the P&L as Ford reduces Model e losses and increases production of more profitable Blue and Pro vehicles. Over the longer term, we expect a key debate will center on how these actions impact Ford's ability to reach Model e profitability, particularly as it increasingly competes with Chinese OEMs outside of China. We think successful execution on the UEV platform and EREV technology, as well as software and digital services, will be key factors. On the ESS business, industry participants have historically seen varied margins, and we believe costs and the company's ability to deliver a full solution will be important determinants of long-term profitability.

On capital allocation:

We do not expect these charges to affect Ford's dividend. Recall that Ford's dividend target is based on 40% to 50% of adjusted free cash flow, and we believe these charges will be excluded from the adjusted FCF calculation. In addition, the company has a strong cash position on the balance sheet, in our view.

Goldman maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, raised EPS estimates to $1.16, $1.65, and $1.80 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and lifted its 12-month price target to $14 from $13, based on an unchanged 8x multiple on normalized EPS.

Ford shares have yet to recover since the F-150 EV debuted in April 2022.

In November, we reported that Ford mulled scrapping the EV truck:

• Ford Mulls Scrapping F-150 Lightning After Dismal Demand, Mounting Losses

The F-150 EV is shaping up to be America's first major EV casualty. Henry Ford would likely be turning over in his grave after such a massive miscalculation in chasing the "green" narrative. The question now is whether the board will hold management accountable for drinking the green Kool-Aid.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 06:59

Porsche To Ferrari: The EVs Drawing The Most Attention Ahead Of 2026

A December 2025 study of the electric vehicle market names the 2026 Porsche Cayenne Electric as the most anticipated EV set to launch next year. Conducted by B2B automotive platform eCarsTrade, the research analyzed more than 20 upcoming electric models and ranked them based on global search interest related to pricing, specifications, range, and release timing.

The Cayenne Electric stands out clearly, attracting around 911,000 monthly searches worldwide. Buyers across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are closely following the model, which is expected to deliver up to 1,139 horsepower in its Turbo version—making it the most powerful production Porsche ever—and feature an 800-volt system capable of charging at up to 400 kilowatts.

Close behind, the MG Cyberster has generated more than 800,000 searches, drawing attention as one of the first mass-market electric roadsters, with a starting price near $73,000 in Europe, China, and the UK.

(View the full study here)

Audi also features prominently in the rankings. The Q6 e-tron, which shares its platform and charging technology with the Porsche Macan Electric, has attracted roughly 793,000 potential buyers at a starting price of $63,800, while the Audi A6 e-tron Sportback adds to the brand’s strong presence.

Volkswagen’s ID.7, positioned as the electric successor to the Passat, has also drawn significant interest from fleet and company-car buyers, with more than 700,000 people researching the $50,000 sedan for its long-range highway capability.

Family-focused electric SUVs are another area of strong demand. Hyundai’s three-row Ioniq 9, offering seating for seven and a 300-mile range at a $60,600 starting price, has recorded 665,000 searches as buyers look for practical electric alternatives to traditional large SUVs.

The study also notes growing curiosity around high-end models, including Ferrari’s first electric vehicle, the Ferrari Elettrica, which has generated more than 300,000 searches despite an estimated starting price above $535,000.

According to eCarsTrade, interest in these models reflects broader market momentum, with electric vehicles expected to account for about 27% of all new car sales in 2026. The findings suggest that established automakers such as Porsche, Audi, Volkswagen, and Hyundai are gaining ground in the EV space, driven by demand from both fleet buyers and individual consumers who place greater trust in familiar brands when making major purchases.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 05:45

Porsche To Ferrari: The EVs Drawing The Most Attention Ahead Of 2026

A December 2025 study of the electric vehicle market names the 2026 Porsche Cayenne Electric as the most anticipated EV set to launch next year. Conducted by B2B automotive platform eCarsTrade, the research analyzed more than 20 upcoming electric models and ranked them based on global search interest related to pricing, specifications, range, and release timing.

The Cayenne Electric stands out clearly, attracting around 911,000 monthly searches worldwide. Buyers across North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are closely following the model, which is expected to deliver up to 1,139 horsepower in its Turbo version—making it the most powerful production Porsche ever—and feature an 800-volt system capable of charging at up to 400 kilowatts.

Close behind, the MG Cyberster has generated more than 800,000 searches, drawing attention as one of the first mass-market electric roadsters, with a starting price near $73,000 in Europe, China, and the UK.

(View the full study here)

Audi also features prominently in the rankings. The Q6 e-tron, which shares its platform and charging technology with the Porsche Macan Electric, has attracted roughly 793,000 potential buyers at a starting price of $63,800, while the Audi A6 e-tron Sportback adds to the brand’s strong presence.

Volkswagen’s ID.7, positioned as the electric successor to the Passat, has also drawn significant interest from fleet and company-car buyers, with more than 700,000 people researching the $50,000 sedan for its long-range highway capability.

Family-focused electric SUVs are another area of strong demand. Hyundai’s three-row Ioniq 9, offering seating for seven and a 300-mile range at a $60,600 starting price, has recorded 665,000 searches as buyers look for practical electric alternatives to traditional large SUVs.

The study also notes growing curiosity around high-end models, including Ferrari’s first electric vehicle, the Ferrari Elettrica, which has generated more than 300,000 searches despite an estimated starting price above $535,000.

According to eCarsTrade, interest in these models reflects broader market momentum, with electric vehicles expected to account for about 27% of all new car sales in 2026. The findings suggest that established automakers such as Porsche, Audi, Volkswagen, and Hyundai are gaining ground in the EV space, driven by demand from both fleet buyers and individual consumers who place greater trust in familiar brands when making major purchases.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 05:45

Britain's New Spy Chief Warns Of 'Aggressive, Expansionist, And Revisionist' Russia

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Britain’s new intelligence chief warned on Dec. 15 that the UK is operating in an era when “the front line is everywhere,” as she set out an assessment of global threats and described Russia as an “aggressive, expansionist, and revisionist” power determined to export instability across Europe and beyond.

Blaise Metreweli, who recently became head of the Secret Intelligence Service—commonly known as MI6—said that Russia’s campaign against Ukraine and its wider hybrid operations pose an acute and enduring danger to Britain and its allies, according to a preview of her first public speech released by the British government.

“The export of chaos is a feature, not a bug in the Russian approach to international engagement, and we should be ready for this to continue until Putin is forced to change his calculus,” Metreweli said.

‘The Front Line Is Everywhere’

Speaking from MI6 headquarters in London, Metreweli said that as Russia and other hostile actors rewrite the rules of conflict through cyber operations, information warfare, and covert sabotage, the global threat environment is becoming increasingly complex and interconnected.

“The front line is everywhere,” she said, warning that the UK faces a new “age of uncertainty.”

Metreweli said Britain’s support for Ukraine will remain firm and that pressure on Moscow will be sustained despite the length and cost of the war.

“Putin should be in no doubt, our support is enduring,” she said. “The pressure we apply on Ukraine’s behalf will be sustained.”

NATO Warns Russia Could Target Allies Next

Her remarks come as European leaders have issued increasingly blunt warnings about Russia’s intentions beyond Ukraine.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week that allied countries could become “Russia’s next target,” saying that Moscow’s willingness to absorb massive losses in Ukraine demonstrated a readiness to confront the wider alliance.

“We need to be crystal clear about the threat,” Rutte said. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way.”

Rutte called for a rapid rise in defense spending to deter aggression and prevent the kind of wide-scale conflict that past generations experienced.

“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured,” he said.

“Imagine it, a conflict reaching every home, every workplace, destruction, mass mobilization, millions displaced, widespread suffering, and extreme losses. It is a terrible thought, but if we deliver on our commitments, this is a tragedy we can prevent.”

In June, NATO allies agreed to raise defense spending targets to 5 percent of gross domestic product by 2035—more than double the current 2 percent benchmark and in line with demands long made by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Sanctions and Diplomacy

Metreweli’s speech also follows a series of British and European actions aimed at countering Russian and Chinese influence operations.

The UK recently sanctioned multiple Russian entities accused of conducting information warfare, as well as two China-based companies linked to what the British government described as “indiscriminate cyber activities” targeting Britain and its allies.

Separately, the European Union on Dec. 15 announced fresh sanctions against individuals and companies supporting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, which transports oil and generates revenue for the war effort, as part of a broader effort to restrict Moscow’s ability to finance its military operations.

Metreweli’s remarks in London coincided with fresh talks in Berlin on Dec. 15 involving U.S. envoys, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European officials aimed at securing peace and stability in Europe amid pressure from Russia.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, held talks with Zelenskyy and other delegates on Dec. 14 in Berlin, as part of efforts to bring the Ukraine war to an end.

“Representatives held in-depth discussions regarding the 20-point plan for peace, economic agendas, and more,” Witkoff said in an update on social media. “A lot of progress was made.”

Trump has pressed for a quick end to the nearly four-year war, but a compromise that both Russia and Ukraine would accept has been elusive.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 05:00

Britain's New Spy Chief Warns Of 'Aggressive, Expansionist, And Revisionist' Russia

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Britain’s new intelligence chief warned on Dec. 15 that the UK is operating in an era when “the front line is everywhere,” as she set out an assessment of global threats and described Russia as an “aggressive, expansionist, and revisionist” power determined to export instability across Europe and beyond.

Blaise Metreweli, who recently became head of the Secret Intelligence Service—commonly known as MI6—said that Russia’s campaign against Ukraine and its wider hybrid operations pose an acute and enduring danger to Britain and its allies, according to a preview of her first public speech released by the British government.

“The export of chaos is a feature, not a bug in the Russian approach to international engagement, and we should be ready for this to continue until Putin is forced to change his calculus,” Metreweli said.

‘The Front Line Is Everywhere’

Speaking from MI6 headquarters in London, Metreweli said that as Russia and other hostile actors rewrite the rules of conflict through cyber operations, information warfare, and covert sabotage, the global threat environment is becoming increasingly complex and interconnected.

“The front line is everywhere,” she said, warning that the UK faces a new “age of uncertainty.”

Metreweli said Britain’s support for Ukraine will remain firm and that pressure on Moscow will be sustained despite the length and cost of the war.

“Putin should be in no doubt, our support is enduring,” she said. “The pressure we apply on Ukraine’s behalf will be sustained.”

NATO Warns Russia Could Target Allies Next

Her remarks come as European leaders have issued increasingly blunt warnings about Russia’s intentions beyond Ukraine.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week that allied countries could become “Russia’s next target,” saying that Moscow’s willingness to absorb massive losses in Ukraine demonstrated a readiness to confront the wider alliance.

“We need to be crystal clear about the threat,” Rutte said. “We are Russia’s next target, and we are already in harm’s way.”

Rutte called for a rapid rise in defense spending to deter aggression and prevent the kind of wide-scale conflict that past generations experienced.

“Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured,” he said.

“Imagine it, a conflict reaching every home, every workplace, destruction, mass mobilization, millions displaced, widespread suffering, and extreme losses. It is a terrible thought, but if we deliver on our commitments, this is a tragedy we can prevent.”

In June, NATO allies agreed to raise defense spending targets to 5 percent of gross domestic product by 2035—more than double the current 2 percent benchmark and in line with demands long made by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Sanctions and Diplomacy

Metreweli’s speech also follows a series of British and European actions aimed at countering Russian and Chinese influence operations.

The UK recently sanctioned multiple Russian entities accused of conducting information warfare, as well as two China-based companies linked to what the British government described as “indiscriminate cyber activities” targeting Britain and its allies.

Separately, the European Union on Dec. 15 announced fresh sanctions against individuals and companies supporting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, which transports oil and generates revenue for the war effort, as part of a broader effort to restrict Moscow’s ability to finance its military operations.

Metreweli’s remarks in London coincided with fresh talks in Berlin on Dec. 15 involving U.S. envoys, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European officials aimed at securing peace and stability in Europe amid pressure from Russia.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, held talks with Zelenskyy and other delegates on Dec. 14 in Berlin, as part of efforts to bring the Ukraine war to an end.

“Representatives held in-depth discussions regarding the 20-point plan for peace, economic agendas, and more,” Witkoff said in an update on social media. “A lot of progress was made.”

Trump has pressed for a quick end to the nearly four-year war, but a compromise that both Russia and Ukraine would accept has been elusive.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 05:00