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House Passes GOP Budget Despite Mid-Day Revolt

House Passes GOP Budget Despite Mid-Day Revolt

Update (2040ET): House Republicans were finally able to pass Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) budget bill Tuesday evening despite a mid-day revolt from conservative hardliners.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)

Passing along party lines by a vote of 217-215 with the exception of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) who voted no with the Democrats, the passage of the package was a key step to move President Trump's agenda forward, though there are still several hurdles to clear - primarily the Senate.

Going into the vote, GOP Reps. Massie, Spartz (R-IN), Davidson (OH), and Burchett (TN) were expected to be the final holdouts - however they all flipped to a yes except for Massie.

Trump also gave the vote an 11th hour boost, working the phones to convince the holdouts to flip.

The House's resolution lays out a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a final target of $2 trillion, as well as a $4.5 trillion ceiling on the deficit impact of any GOP plan to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts, The Hill reports. It also includes $300 billion in additional spending on the border and defense, as well as a $4 trillion debt limit increase.

In addition to the fiscal conservative holdouts, GOP leaders also had to win over moderates concerned about potential cuts to Medicaid in the ultimate Trump agenda bill. The resolution directs the Energy and Commerce Committee — which has jurisdiction over Medicaid — to find at least $880 billion in cuts, a figure that some lawmakers said could not be reached without significant slashes to the social safety net program. -The Hill

Now, of course, the House must reconcile with the Senate - which passed its own budget resolution last week using a different strategy.

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House Republicans took a major step toward enacting former President Donald Trump’s policy vision on Tuesday, advancing a budget resolution that could set the stage for a high-stakes showdown within the GOP. But with hardline conservatives digging in their heels, the bill’s fate remains uncertain.

In a narrow 217-211 vote along party lines, the House approved the procedural rule for the budget resolution, clearing the way for a final vote. The GOP’s spending blueprint aims to push Trump’s domestic agenda—border security funding, energy policy shifts, and tax cuts—through Congress.

But the measure is hanging by a thread, as a group of conservative deficit hawks is refusing to budge. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) acknowledged the uncertainty, telling reporters, “There may be a vote tonight, may not be. Stay tuned.”

Rebel Republicans Threaten to Tank Budget

At least four GOP lawmakers—Reps. Thomas Massie (KY), Victoria Spartz (IN), Warren Davidson (OH), and Tim Burchett (TN)—have vowed to oppose the final resolution, enough to sink the measure unless Johnson can win over last-minute holdouts.

Massie, an outspoken budget hawk, didn’t mince words. “I was a lean no before this meeting, now I’m a no,” he told reporters Tuesday, slamming the budget’s spending numbers as reckless.

“If the Republican plan passes under the rosiest assumptions, which aren’t even true, we’re gonna add $328 billion to the deficit this year, we’re gonna add $295 billion to the deficit the year after that, and $242 billion to the deficit after that, under the rosiest assumptions” Massie warned, adding “Why would I vote for that?”

With the GOP’s razor-thin House majority, Republicans can only afford to lose one of their own votes if Democrats remain united in opposition. That slim margin is making Johnson’s job even tougher as he tries to broker a compromise.

A Balancing Act Between Conservatives and Moderates

For weeks, GOP leadership has been wrangling members from both ends of the ideological spectrum. Conservative hardliners have been pushing for deeper spending cuts, while moderates are concerned about slashes to programs like Medicaid.

Some moderates, however, appear to be coming around. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), who had previously raised concerns, signaled on Tuesday that he was softening his stance. “I’m in a better place [than] where I was yesterday,” he told reporters after meeting with leadership.

The budget resolution sets a floor of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, a target of $2 trillion in reductions, and a $4.5 trillion cap on the deficit impact of extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. It also carves out $300 billion for border security and defense, alongside a controversial $4 trillion increase in the debt limit.

Johnson and his leadership team have been scrambling to shore up support, but the opposition from Massie and other fiscal hawks presents a serious roadblock. If the measure fails, it would be another embarrassing setback for House Republicans, who have struggled to unite behind a cohesive spending strategy.

The House is scheduled to take a final vote on the budget resolution around 6 p.m. Tuesday - but that timeline is now in limbo. With tensions running high, all eyes are on whether Johnson can twist enough arms to push Trump’s budget vision through.

Stay tuned.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 20:38

US Invasion Of Canada? Chrystia Freeland Says As Prime Minister She Will Stop It

US Invasion Of Canada? Chrystia Freeland Says As Prime Minister She Will Stop It

The political left, regardless of whatever country they are in, is notorious for creating emotional drama for the purposes of propaganda.  They are also notorious for accusing their ideological opponents of committing the exact kind of crimes they are actually guilty of.  Their fundamental strategy is to take the words of their opponents and twist them into a fantastical narrative of villainy.  Add a professional agitator personality like Donald Trump into the mix and you have a recipe for pearl clutching on an epic scale.  

Trump's calls for tariffs on Canada and Mexico have elicited a highly dramatic response, with both government's pretending as if the policy is an act of war.  Specifically, his prodding assertions that Canada should become the "51st state" have Canadian officials in an uproar.  

Podcaster Joe Rogan recently noted that when he asked Trump about the controversy, Trump stated that "It was a joke at first, and then he started to think it might be a good idea".  Whether one agrees with this or not, anyone with any sense understands that it's highly unlikely for a number of reasons that Canada will ever become part of the United States.  It is fun to play with the premise, though.

For Canadian leftists the idea is not a joke.  They are treating it as a precursor to US invasion.  

Chrystia Freeland, a Canadian MP, Deputy Prime Minister and a member of the World Economic Forum's Board of Trustees, is running with the manufactured outrage.  Freeland announced her candidacy for Prime Minister this week and defined her campaign platform almost exclusively as an anti-Trump platform.  She claims that her run as PM was inspired by fears that Donald Trump intends to "invade Canada", a threat she intends to courageously stand against.

First and foremost, whenever leftist candidates conjure a story from thin air they often claim an "innocent child asked them a frightening question" which inspired them to take action.  In all likelihood the four-year-old girl Freeland talks about doesn't exist other than in her own mind.  Second, Freeland is jousting at windmills because no one in the Trump Administration has suggested such an invasion.  

President Donald Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” he doesn’t think the president has “any plans to invade Canada.”  His remarks follow multiple reports that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a closed-door meeting of business leaders last week that the Trump administration “keeps talking about absorbing us and making us the 51st state.” 

Freeland says Trump represents 'the greatest threat to Canada since WWII'.  Oddly, Freeland's own family was a part of that threat.  Her Grandfather on her mother's side, Michael Chomiak, was a Ukrainian Nazi collaborator who ran a propaganda newspaper called Krakivski Visti.  

The Ukraine Archival Records held by the Province of Alberta has a large file on Chomiak, including his own details about his days editing the newspaper Krakivski Visti. Chomiak noted he edited the paper first in Crakow (Cracow), Poland and then in Vienna. The reason he edited the paper in Vienna was because he had to flee with his Nazis colleagues as the Russians advanced into Poland.   

Globe and Mail reported that, “Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland knew for more than two decades that her maternal Ukrainian grandfather was the chief editor of a Nazi newspaper.”  Despite this fact, she has often cited her grandfather as inspiration for her political career.  Freeland has been called out on multiple occasions for revising her family history and painting her grandfather as a "refugee fleeing the Nazis".  The information on her grandfather was initially labeled "Russian disinformation", but it turned out to be true.

Freeland is not necessarily culpable for the actions of her ancestors, but as a close member of the authoritarian Davos crowd within the WEF, it looks like Freeland is making her Nazi grandfather proud.  Freeland argued during the Liberal leadership French Debate that free speech similar to that in the US should not be tolerated when it comes to negative views on open immigration.

It should also be noted that Freeland was a rabid supporter of draconian forced vaccination mandates during the pandemic scare in Canada.  It would seem that Canadian citizens have a lot more to fear from Chrystia Freeland as PM than they do from Donald Trump.           

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 20:30

From Brain Fog To Allergies: The Health Risks Of Mold and How To Tackle It

From Brain Fog To Allergies: The Health Risks Of Mold and How To Tackle It

Au thored by JoJo Novaes and Connie Lai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mold is more than just an aesthetic problem in a home; it can also pose a threat to your health. Exposure to mold has been linked to conditions, including allergic rhinitis, asthma, and even cognitive issues like brain fog.

Yury Nikolaev/Shutterstock

In the “Health 1+1” program, Shao-Hung Wang, professor and chair of the Microbiology, Immunology, and Biopharmaceuticals Department at National Chiayi University in Taiwan, discussed the increasing number of mold-related poisoning incidents in recent years. He cited the 2004 contamination of Pedigree dog food, which led to kidney failure in approximately 6,000 dogs in Taiwan alone. More recently, in March of last year, toxic puberulic acid was found in red yeast rice supplements from Japan’s Kobayashi Pharmaceutical, a drug-maker company, resulting in over 100 deaths.

During the program, Wang outlined effective strategies for mold prevention and removal, including essential cleaning products to help keep it at bay.

Health Risks of Indoor Mold

Beyond foodborne mold poisoning, indoor mold contamination is also a serious concern.

In damp environments, mold toxins can trigger allergic reactions and, in some cases, even severe asthma symptoms, Wang noted. He cited a 2023 review indicating that in old, moisture-prone buildings, mold growing on structures can release mycotoxins into the air. These airborne toxins, or bioaerosols, can be unknowingly inhaled by residents, leading to various health issues.

A recent review in the journal Toxicology found that exposure to environmental mycotoxins may compromise the blood-brain barrier, allowing these toxins to enter the central nervous system. This disruption can potentially trigger oxidative stress and neuroinflammation, both of which are linked to an increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease.

Common Mold Habitats in Your Home

Mold thrives in damp, humid environments where nutrients are readily available, making certain areas of the home particularly susceptible, Wang noted.

Bathrooms and Kitchens

Bathrooms and kitchens are particularly susceptible to mold, especially on silicone sealants, countertops, and hard-to-reach areas.

These spaces tend to have high humidity, and organic matter—such as soap residue from bathing or food scraps in the kitchen—can serve as nutrients for mold growth.

Furniture and Wall Crevices

Mold can also form on furniture, walls, and ceilings.

For example, the paint or varnish on wooden wardrobes may provide nutrients for mold. In humid, poorly ventilated conditions, mold spots often appear behind closets or in corners.

Mold also tends to grow in hidden areas, sometimes producing a musty odor even when no visible mold is present.

Basements

Poor ventilation in basements makes them prone to moisture buildup, creating ideal conditions for mold growth—especially on wooden wall panels.

Potted Plants and Drip Trays

The soil in potted plants and the water collected in drip trays are also common breeding grounds for mold.

Wang recommends placing plants in sunlight regularly and replacing soil immediately if mold appears.

Household Appliances

  • Air Conditioners: Air conditioners tend to accumulate moisture, while indoor air contains skin flakes that serve as nutrients for mold.
  • Washing Machines: Constant exposure to water makes washing machines prone to mold growth. Wang recommends having them professionally inspected at least once a year and periodically using mold removers to clean the interior.
  • Dishwashers and Dryers: While high temperatures during washing and drying may help, they are not always sufficient to eliminate mold and spores completely. Mold can persist, particularly on rubber seals that do not come into direct contact with heat.

When drying clothes, Wang suggests using anti-static dryer sheets or wool dryer balls, as static electricity can attract mycotoxins. Whenever possible, let clothes dry in the sun after machine drying— this helps reduce static while breaking down particles that may contain fungal toxins.

Preventing Mold Growth

A musty smell in a room is a key indicator of excessive humidity.

A 2024 study showed that increasing air circulation promotes evaporation, helping to keep indoor surfaces like tiles dry. This prevents mold spores from germinating and inhibits mold growth.

In addition to ensuring proper ventilation, using a dehumidifier is essential when relative humidity exceeds 60 percent. Pairing it with an air purifier can further help remove fungal spores, mold fragments, and mycotoxins from the environment.

Safe Mold Removal Methods

If mold develops on walls or silicone surfaces at home, a variety of commercial mold removers are available in spray and foam form. However, Wang cautioned against mixing mold removers with other cleaning or disinfecting agents, as this may trigger harmful chemical reactions. If a mold remover is unavailable, bleach can be used as an alternative.

Step-by-Step Instructions for Bleach Solution:

  1. Dilute bleach at a 1:100 ratio with water.
  2. Soak a paper towel in the solution and place it over the mold-affected area.
  3. Let it sit for one to three hours.
  4. Scrub the area with a sponge or scouring pad.

For severe mold growth, use a higher concentration of bleach at a 1:10 ratio. However, when applying a high-concentration solution, be sure to leave the room to avoid inhaling fumes that can irritate the respiratory tract.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 20:05

Fear Of Trump Led To The Release Of Hostages In Gaza: Waltz

Fear Of Trump Led To The Release Of Hostages In Gaza: Waltz

The phase one of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage/prisoner exchange deal has held through multiple rounds of captive releases. US National Security Advisor Mike Walz, after six Israelis were recently freed on Saturday, has said it was Hamas' fear of Trump that made this possible.

"Hamas is listening to the president ... 29 hostages are alive today and reunited with their families because the whole world listened when President Trump said there would be all hell to pay after the Biden administration couldn't get this done for 15 months," Waltz told "Fox & Friends" on Monday.

The timeline of the deal seems to back this assessment - that indeed it was anticipation the Trump presidency would push the deal over the line. That deal had been agreed to on January 19, 2025 - literally the day before Trump was inaugurated.

Via Associated Press

"The needle we are trying to thread now is getting all our hostages out. At the same time though, Hamas will not rule Gaza. Period," Walz continued in his comments. "They have a couple of off-ramps that we put on the table, but Hamas will not rule Gaza. They will not cause another Oct. 7. And we will work with Israel to make sure that doesn't happen."

Both sides have lately warned the ceasefire's collapse could be imminent, especially given that Hamas has released nearly all the hostages on a stage and 'graduation' of sorts complete with propaganda posters denouncing Netanyahu and 'Zionist terrorism'...

"Israel will not overlook the inhumane, degrading ceremonies that humiliate our hostages for propaganda," Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said at a press briefing.

Israel has delayed release of all Palestinian prisoners agreed to, but hundreds have been transferred, amid Palestinians celebrations especially in the West Bank.

At the same time, Israeli forces have ramped up West Bank operations, which has included the escalation of sending tanks into some refugee camps. This comes after several attempted bus bombings over the weekend.

Spokesman for Hamas' political bureau Basem Naim days ago described, "Unfortunately, Netanyahu and his government have been rejecting to engage with the second phase while only one week is left from the first phase. We believe that again, these are dirty games from the right-wing government to sabotage and undermine the deal and to send a message of willingness to go back to war."

It's anything but certain whether the truce will hold into phase two and phase three, the details of which have yet to be fully defined or publicized. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 19:40

1 Million Federal Workers Responded To Musk's Mass Email Asking To List Accomplishments

1 Million Federal Workers Responded To Musk's Mass Email Asking To List Accomplishments

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The White House on Tuesday said that 1 million federal employees responded to a mass email from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) asking them to list five things they had accomplished in the past week.

“We’ve had more than one million workers who have chosen to participate. ... I actually participated in it myself. It took me about a minute and a half,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in response to a reporter’s question about the OPM email deadline, describing what was asked in the email as something “very simple” that can be accomplished in a few minutes.

Leavitt confirmed that the email was an idea from Elon Musk and that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which he leads, helped OPM craft the email. She also said that federal workers need to respond to this email unless told otherwise by their agency heads.

However, agency leaders “are responsible for their specific workforce,” Leavitt said. “This is true of the hirings and firings that have taken place.”

The email drew a lawsuit from unions, businesses, veterans, and conservation organizations, arguing Musk had violated the law by threatening mass firings in a social media post referencing the OPM email. Meanwhile, OPM told agencies that employees are not mandated to respond to the email.

Over the weekend, Musk signaled that people who don’t respond to the mass email would be considered to have resigned from their jobs.

Musk wrote on Saturday on social media platform X that “all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week,” and that “failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.”

He later said that the email was designed to determine whether certain employees are even working, adding that he believes fraud is rampant.

“In some cases, we believe non-existent people or the identities of dead people are being used to collect paychecks,” he stated.

“In other words, there is outright fraud.”

The OPM sent out its email request afterward.

“Please reply to this email with approx. 5 bullets of what you accomplished last week and cc your manager,” the message said.

However, it said nothing about the potential for employees to be fired for noncompliance.

Musk on Monday balked at the pushback, saying federal workers “hate even the tiniest amount of accountability” and continued to warn they could be fired.

“Subject to the discretion of the President, they will be given another chance,” he wrote on X, which he owns.

“Failure to respond a second time will result in termination.”

When asked on Monday about Musk’s comments and the email, President Donald Trump indicated that he was supportive of the effort.

“What he’s doing is saying, ‘Are you actually working?’” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. 

“And then, if you don’t answer, like, you’re sort of semi-fired or you’re fired, because a lot of people aren’t answering because they don’t even exist.”

The president said Musk and DOGE have found “hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud,” suggesting that federal paychecks are going to nonexistent employees.

Musk’s posts on X and the OPM email came shortly after Trump wrote on social media on Saturday that he wants Musk to “get more aggressive” in his efforts to downsize the federal workforce and eliminate fraud, abuse, and waste.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 19:15

"Hold An Election": Musk Blasts Ukrainian Parliament Vote Affirming No Elections, Hailing Zelensky's 'Legitimacy'

"Hold An Election": Musk Blasts Ukrainian Parliament Vote Affirming No Elections, Hailing Zelensky's 'Legitimacy'

On Tuesday Ukraine's parliament passed a resolution extending the mandate of President Volodymyr Zelensky until martial law is lifted. It comes amid growing pressure from Washington for the country to prepare for and hold a national election.

The vote reached the necessary majority, with 268 members voting in support of the resolution, with no abstentions or votes against, according to a statement by parliament deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak. Several parliament members were absent, however.

"The Verkhovna Rada once again recalls that the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky was elected in free, transparent, democratic elections. His mandate is not called into question by the Ukrainian people or the Verkhovna Rada," the resolution read, which was intended as clear pushback against Trump. Zelensky's 'legitimacy' is also being declared in the vote.

Via Reuters

President Trump shocked allies last week by calling Zelensky a "dictator without elections" who has refused to conform to democratic norms.

Interestingly, there was more resistance when a first-round vote was held Monday - suggesting things aren't so unanimous. According to a regional source, "The Verkhovna Rada first put the resolution to the vote on Monday, the third anniversary of the start of the war, when it was supported by 218 deputies, short of the required minimum of 226 votes for a vote to pass."

Zelensky has consistently argue country can't hold elections as martial law is still in effect, amid growing criticism that he's conspiring to merely stay in power. His term expired in May 2024, but he recently asserted, "I’m focusing on the survival of our country, and I am doing it really all my term."

"I’m ready to speak about elections if you want," he said, claiming that "Ukrainians don’t want, totally don’t want, because they are afraid, because otherwise we will lose the military loan, the war loan, our soldiers will come back home, and Putin will occupy all our territory."

Elon Musk among others begs to differ. He wrote on X in response to Tuesday's vote: "Hold an election".

Last week, in addition to calling Zelensky a dictator, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Zelensky "better move fast" to achieve peace with Russia or "he is not going to have a country left."

On Sunday Zelensky actually floated the possibility of stepping down if it would lead to peace, but appeared to attach it to NATO membership. "I am ready to leave my post if it brings peace. Or exchange it for NATO," Zelensky said in response to journalists' questions at a local security summit.

Russia's Putin has meanwhile said he can't negotiate directly with Zelensky as he's 'illegitimate' and refuses to hold elections. Putin has also pointed to Zelensky effectively outlawing direct talks with Moscow.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 18:50

More Signs Of China's Decline

More Signs Of China's Decline

Authored by Milton Ezrati via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More signs have emerged testifying to the severity of China’s financial woes. Local governments seem to have become so cash-strapped that they have resorted to paying their bills with unfinished and unbought apartments left by the nation’s ongoing property crisis.

A general view shows Evergrande residential buildings under construction in Guangzhou, in China's southern Guangdong Province, on July 18, 2022. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images

This kind of barter constitutes a slide back into the sort of primitive economics usually associated with third-world economies. It speaks to how far China has fallen and how much Beijing needs to do to get back on an acceptable development path.

The origins of these problems are reasonably straightforward and should be familiar to regular readers of this column. Beijing planted the seeds of this mess with years of excessive promotion for residential real estate development. In the early stages of China’s development, this emphasis was appropriate. Still, Beijing continued with easy financing terms and support from local governments for too long after the country had caught up with its housing needs.

Because of Beijing’s lavish support, developers could offer attractive deals to potential homebuyers, driving up purchases, while taking full advantage of the seemingly favorable situation by using debt to finance as much development as possible. At the same time, local governments, flush with revenues from booming land sales, also borrowed heavily to create as attractive a civic environment as possible.

At its height, real estate development in China rose to almost 25 percent of the economy. Since most developed economies seldom dedicate more than 5 percent of their gross domestic product to real estate development, the figure itself speaks to how far matters have gone.

In 2019, as Beijing’s planners began to realize how excessive residential development had become, they abruptly withdrew the earlier support. And since they gave little or no warning of the change, neither developers nor local governments had time to adjust.

Developers showed the damage first. They began to fail. The first signs of the unfolding disaster arrived in 2021 when the huge property developer Evergrande announced that it could not meet the equivalent of some $300 billion in obligations. A number of other such failures followed.

Not surprisingly, construction activity stalled, and so did the pace of homebuying. The financial system suffered from the volume of unpaid debt, especially since, at the same time as the developers were failing, Chinese households that had pre-purchased from property developers could no longer complete their payments and refused to fulfill their mortgage obligations. And because Beijing refused to implement policies to mitigate these financial strains, they only got worse.

As these problems festered, local governments, now denied most of the cash flow from land sales, found themselves unable to meet their obligations on the debts they had incurred during the boom years and also their civic obligations to their populations. Not only were lenders asked to wait, but local governments also held back on payments to contractors for all sorts of services, including utilities, garbage collection, street cleaning, and repair. In some cases, matters got so severe that civic employees—teachers, medical staff, police, and firefighters—had to wait for their pay.

In the absence of cash to pay their bills, developers and local governments have resorted to the only thing they have in abundance to pay their bills: unfinished and unoccupied apartments. Three examples should give a sense of what is happening.

Changji City, China, has discharged the equivalent of $25 million in unpaid gas bills to Xinjiang East Universe Gas with some 260 unfinished apartments in what was originally planned as a luxury housing development.

Shanghai Urban Architecture Design has taken 115 apartments to settle the equivalent of some $10 million it was due.

Police departments in China’s Dejiang, Yuping, and Sinan counties have settled the equivalent of some $10 million owed to a software developer with the transfer of apartments from a failed property developer.

Praise for imagination is due to these people. Still, their resort to what has effectively become a barter economy should give a sense of how severe China’s problems of economics and finance have become. Beijing might have headed these problems off by acting promptly at the first signs of failure, but as it was, the authorities took no action until late 2023, fully two years after Evergrande collapsed.

What they have done since has done little to arrest a crisis that has had so much time to build in the interim.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 18:25

Massie Teases Senate Run - Jewish GOP Group Threatens 'Unlimited' Spending To Stop Him

Massie Teases Senate Run - Jewish GOP Group Threatens 'Unlimited' Spending To Stop Him

Kentucky GOP Rep. Thomas Massie is teasing a potential run for Mitch McConnell's Senate seat in 2026, and a Jewish Republican group is already threatening to unleash "unlimited" spending to thwart any such bid, given his frequent opposition to legislation pushed by the pro-Israel lobby. 

On Thursday, Massie posted a poll on X, asking if he should stay in the House, run for Senate in 2026, or run for governor in 2027. A Senate campaign was the choice of 67% of the respondents.

The libertarian-minded Massie opposes all foreign aid. At his own political peril, he dares to make no exception for the State of Israel, which is among the world's richest countries. He has also voted against legislation that would infringe on free speech by, for example, punishing colleges that allow students and professors to say the wrong things about Israel.

Add it all up -- and stir in the fact that he's a member of a party whose legislators almost universally toe the pro-Israel line -- and Massie is likely the House representative the pro-Israel lobby would most like to eliminate. The idea of him ascending to the Senate has pro-Israel forces racing to DEFCON1. 

In March 2020, Massie explains his effort to prevent a massive Covid stimulus package from being adopted without a recorded vote (Susan Walsh-AP) 

“If Tom Massie chooses to enter the race for US Senate in Kentucky, the RJC campaign budget to ensure he is defeated will be unlimited,” warned Republican Jewish Coalition CEO Matt Brooks in a statement to Jewish Insider. The Republican Jewish Coalition has tried to defeat Massie before. In 2020, the RJC backed Republican Todd McMurtry in challenging Massie in the GOP primary -- only to see Massie trounce McMurtry in an 81% to 19% rout. 

So intense is their opposition to Massie that last year, pro-Israel forces starting preemptively spending money to weaken Massie's Senate prospects. Despite the fact that Massie faced no viable GOP opponent nor any Democrat opponent at all, the intentionally-vaguely-named United Democracy Project -- the independent campaign-spending arm of the mighty American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) -- said it would spend $300,000 on ads on Fox television affiliates in Kentucky. "We are trying to shine a light on the radical anti-Israel record of Tom Massie," said spokesman Patrick Dorton. "We want every single voter in the state of Kentucky to know about his anti-Israel actions."  Here's their over-the-top ad: 

In a direct challenge to the Israel lobby, Massie has pushed for the Department of Justice to compel AIPAC and its associates to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, a law that requires individuals and organizations that work to advance the policies of foreign governments to disclose their relationships, actions and compensation. 

If Massie does run for Senate, spending by the RJC and other pro-Israel groups on the race could make it an extraordinarily pricy race. That dynamic was on display in the 2024 cycle: AIPAC successfully targeted incumbent Democratic New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, and poured an astonishing $14 million into the race -- helping to make it the most expensive House primary contest ever.   

Within hours of Mitch McConnell's announcement that he would not run for re-election in 2026, former Kentucky attorney-general Daniel Cameron formally declared his candidacy. McConnell is considered a mentor to Cameron, making Cameron the establishment-designated heir apparent. Undeclared candidates who've signaled a strong interest in the seat include Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr and waste-and-recycling businessman Nate Morris. Last week at CPAC, Morris condemned both Cameron and Barr for "refus[ing] to call out Mitch McConnell for the sabotage of President Trump's agenda."   

In a Monday interview with Ann Coulter, Massie used his characteristic dry wit to express a middling appetite for a Senate seat:

"It's the the same circus with different monkeys...Here's the good news: I'm not even in the race for Senate and the only poll that's been released shows me in second place." 

Massie was likely referring to a December poll that showed him with 16% support, second to Cameron's 32% but ahead of Barr's 10%. In the same interview, Massie said he consulted Grok about his choice: The X AI engine said a 2027 bid for Kentucky governor would be his best move. That may be best for Massie and his fellow Kentuckians, but it would remove one of the few truly principled voices from the federal legislature -- one who heeds George Washington's warning to avoid "passionate attachments" to any foreign countries, a failing that "facilitat[es] the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 18:00

New Jersey's E-ZPass Contract Raises Concerns About Potential China Ties, Lawmakers Say

New Jersey's E-ZPass Contract Raises Concerns About Potential China Ties, Lawmakers Say

Authored by Frank Fang and Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Lawmakers have raised concerns about the New Jersey Turnpike Authority’s decision to award an 11-year E-ZPass contract to a Singaporean-owned company over its alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Rich Fischer enjoyed Shen Yun at the Kennedy Center Opera House in Washington on Feb. 23, 2025. Jenny Jing/The Epoch Times

“This is an issue that transcends politics, where we’re truly concerned for the deal and whether or not we can have safeguards to make sure that we were being properly protected,” state Sen. Joe Pennacchio, a Republican from Morris County, told The Epoch Times on Feb. 22.

In September 2024, the Turnpike Authority awarded the E-ZPass customer service operations to Nashville-based TransCore for $1.73 billion. TransCore beat out Conduent, based in Newark, New Jersey, and its more competitive bid of $1.48 billion. TransCore’s parent company, Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE), is owned by Temasek Holdings, which is wholly owned by Singapore’s government.

Earlier this month, Pennacchio wrote a letter to New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy asking him to use his executive power to void the contract. He explained that Fu Chengyu—a former chairman of China’s state-owned oil companies and a high-ranking CCP member with ties to China’s influence network, the United Front Work Department—was a member of Temasek’s board of directors until recently.

“You have a foreign entity with a former member of the CCP who used to be on the board,” Pennacchio said. “So, I mean, that should be red flags.

“So that’s where we’re dependent on our own government to make sure that these deals that are going to happen are properly vetted, and they’ve gone through the proper circles of national defense, of Homeland Security, and ... the Treasury Department, making sure that our financial secrets are kept secret, not shared with other people.”

The senator said the E-ZPass system collects personal information such as driver’s license information, credit card numbers, and banking information, and can also track the movements of cargo and people.

Pennacchio questioned whether the deal was properly vetted during the Biden administration. He said he had received a response from Murphy directing him to reach out to the Turnpike Authority, but noted that the port agency had not conducted the vetting.

“The only thing that I was able to find through one of the news articles was that the U.S. Treasury Department vetted the company,” he said.

According to Pennacchio, it is important to make sure that Temasek will not use the collected personal information for nefarious means.

“We should have at least the Trump administration perhaps taking a second look and making sure that they’re comfortable ... that these people won’t share that information, and that there are no Chinese military or Chinese government ties to this organization,” he said.

Bipartisan Concern

The New Jersey E-ZPass is accepted by the transportation authorities of several regions, including the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the South Jersey Transportation Authority, the Delaware River Joint Toll Bridge Commission, and the Burlington County Bridge Commission.

The issue has drawn scrutiny from New Jersey lawmakers.

“China keeps trying to steal Americans’ data,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) wrote on social media platform X on Feb. 7. “Their newest target: Jersey families. We cannot allow our personal information and whereabouts to get into the hands of our number one adversary.”

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) sent a letter to the Turnpike Authority’s Board of Commissioners on Feb. 5, calling their decision to award the contract to TransCore “misguided.”

“Handing over critical infrastructure operations to a company tied to China is reckless and unnecessary when American-based companies are fully capable of handling these services,” Van Drew said in a statement at the time. “The New Jersey Turnpike Authority must reconsider this contract immediately and put American interests first.”

In a Feb. 11 letter to Van Drew, TransCore stated that it “delivers the most secure toll systems” in the United States, given that its national security agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice would ensure that data collected by its tolling systems would not be accessible to or shared with any foreign entity or affiliate, including STE.

“There is no connection between TransCore, or its parent company ST Engineering (STE), with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),” TransCore wrote. “Temasek, as a shareholder of STE, has no director appointed to the STE Board and has no role in STE’s business operations.”

Newark’s Conduent, which had the E-ZPass contract for eight years, filed a protest with the Turnpike Authority in October 2024.

“There is no justification for awarding TransCore a contract that is over $251 million more than what Conduent offered,” the appeal document stated.

In response to The Epoch Times’ inquiry, Sean Collins, vice president of external communications and analyst and adviser relations at Conduent, stated that in TransCore’s letter to Van Drew, the company failed to address Temasek’s role or mention that a high-ranking CCP member was a former chairman.

“The response portrayed Temasek as merely one of many shareholders, rather than acknowledging it as the majority and controlling shareholder that consented to Singapore Technologies’ acquisition of TransCore,” Collins said. “Importantly, TransCore failed to comply with the statutorily required ownership disclosure requirement in its proposal.

“Conduent’s proposal also provides for immediate implementation of AI-powered customer experience technologies, high-quality services, and more customer service agents—all without the substantial risks and delays of converting to a new vendor.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 17:00

iPhone's Voice-To-Text Feature Suffers From "Trump Derangement Syndrome"

iPhone's Voice-To-Text Feature Suffers From "Trump Derangement Syndrome"

The iPhone's voice-to-text feature appears to be suffering from a bad case of "Trump Derangement Syndrome."

If a user repeatedly says "racist," the next word generated is "Trump." We independently verified this anti-Trump behavior, which seems to reflect far-left subliminal propaganda.

"We are aware of an issue with the speech recognition model that powers Dictation, and we are rolling out a fix as soon as possible," an Apple spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

Similar subliminal propaganda was pushed by Amazon's Alexa virtual assistant ahead of the U.S. presidential elections last fall...

Earlier today, Apple shareholders rejected eliminating toxic DEI policies despite a widespread rollback across corporate America, the federal government, and the military.

Apple did not specify a timeframe for the dictation feature fix but indicated it would be implemented as soon as possible.

Isn't it fascinating how technology sometimes mirrors the unconscious biases of its creators? Parts of Silicon Valley still seem out of touch, failing to recognize that the Overton Window shifted about a year ago.

Not all is bad with Apple...

It's time for Trump to have another talk with Cook.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 16:40

EV Chargers At Federal Buildings Set To Go Dark

EV Chargers At Federal Buildings Set To Go Dark

The federal agency responsible for overseeing government-owned buildings has directed all properties under its management to shut down electric vehicle charging stations.

Bloomberg reported that the General Services Administration, which oversees hundreds of EV chargers nationwide at federal buildings—currently operating 8,000 plugs with plans to expand rapidly in the coming years—recently sent an email outlining the plan to shut down the chargers. The Verge first reported the development last week.

"As GSA has worked to align with the current administration, we have received direction that all GSA-owned charging stations are not mission-critical," the email reads, adding, "Neither Government Owned Vehicles nor Privately Owned Vehicles will be able to charge at these charging stations once they're out of service." 

Colorado Public Radio reported last week that GSA's Denver office will begin turning off charges at federal buildings in the coming weeks. 

A source told The Verge that, in addition to shutting EV charging stations, the GSA will also begin offloading the EVs it purchased under the Biden administration. 

The Verge noted, "Former President Joe Biden's signature climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, included $975 million for the GSA to upgrade federal buildings across the country" with EV chargers. The goal was to achieve net zero by 2045. 

The Trump administration has stated in an executive order to "terminate" the Green New Deal ... and for all agencies to pause "the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Public Law 117-169) or the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58), including but not limited to funds for electric vehicle charging stations made available through the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program and the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Discretionary Grant Program..." 

This month, the Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Administration ended a $5 billion program that helped states build EV charging stations along US highways. 

We feel this is a smart move that stops the inefficient federal government from expanding its EV charging infrastructure plan. GSA's chargers were likely costing taxpayers a fortune without any clear ROI. 

Last month, Goldman's Thomas Evans told clients that its trading desk views Trump's actions as "bearish for the US EV market specifically."

If the marketplace needs chargers - let the private sector do the buildout - not corrupt DC swamp.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 15:40

The Core And Curse Of DOGE

The Core And Curse Of DOGE

Via SchiffGold.com,

Every election Americans have been desensitized to claims of cutting spending and somehow getting everything they want at the same time. 

We expect that candidates will say we can have it all. 

We hypothetically know that cutting spending and government waste are good things, but they always take second priority to whatever urgent situation or desires we face. 

The Department of Government Efficiency takes a radically new approach to this problem of motivation and has created a new means for waste to be cut. It is important to not disregard the fact that there have been many government oversight organizations with the sole purpose of focusing on fraud and waste. DOGE has begun their own efforts of documenting waste and directly cutting excess spending, but they do not seek to undercut previous attempts. DOGE has an ability to act that has not been matched by other waste-cutting agencies.

While the goal of cutting spending is undoubtedly good and we are in a situation of spending crisis, DOGE’s unorthodox methods may set a dangerous precedent for future administrations. It serves as an all purpose task force for the president to enforce his will and identify weaknesses in government spending. While past presidents have been frustrated about being stonewalled by various bureaucrats, DOGE creates an embedded network of control that makes the president’s proclamations much more effectual. While even the left appreciates cutting waste in theory, it is easy to see how such a vital approach to government could be harmful in the future. In the past, layers of inefficiency protected us from radical policies and made systemic change slow. There is no guarantee that a DOGE-type force will only be applied to cutting waste. Even DOGE’s current actions may suggest motives that are less than wholesome. Musk made sure to first attack USAID, which had recently scrutinized him for overcharging the government for Starlink he claimed he would donate. With such an atypical and unsteady start, in the future it could be used to enforce radical social policies or even set the undergirding for a military takeover. DOGE’s effectiveness is the center of its danger.

While there are dangers to be wary of, DOGE could provide a much needed reset for government waste and set the standard for fulfilling campaign promises. It often feels like once elected, presidents have their hands tied and are unable to be judged on the merits of their actions because what happens cannot truly be said to be “them.” This lack of responsibility means that the public is unsatisfied and few things actually happen in a powerful enough way that the citizen can see or feel them. The cutting of DOGE will most likely undo bureaucracies that took decades to establish, creating a new normal that will benefit even the most democratic of presidents. If this process was going through Congress, it would be impossible to make real change in four years. Our debt and interest payments are unsustainable and require this sort of radical action if our country is to continue sustaining itself rather than sinking deeper into destruction through indulgence. 

Critics and supporters of DOGE are quick to point out its unfettered nature. 

The critics are hesitant of its freedom from Congress and point out that it seems dangerously near an oligarchy. Supporters see it’s unfettered nature as necessary to compete with the droves of unelected officials and agencies relatively free from Congress. 

Countless agencies existing outside of congressional concern and control make it nearly impossible for Congress to understand what they are doing, or even which pathways they must use to rein them in. 

DOGE is a good solution to the fact that Congress will never have the bandwidth to understand the minutiae of waste and fraud occurring in the federal government. 

Additionally, much waste and lack of oversight has simple and truly bipartisan solutions. For example, the treasury not having to state what their specific payments were for should be questioned by anyone. This small administrative detail would have never been brought up in congress, but it will ultimately return so much accountability to the American people. If agencies have been able to deny the public the ability to see what’s going on, the public cannot vote accurately. 

The freedom of DOGE is necessary to restore faith in the government and make a new standard of transparency. 

Even if they overstep and do things that Congress should be responsible for, let this article’s point stand: we need more transparency and active cost cutting urgently or this country will pay for its nonchalant attitude towards responsibility. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 15:20

Tesla Sales Fall 45% Across Europe, As Buyers Respond To Musk's Move To Politics

Tesla Sales Fall 45% Across Europe, As Buyers Respond To Musk's Move To Politics

Tesla Inc.’s European sales plummeted 45% in January, with just 9,945 registrations, down from 18,161 a year ago, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association and Bloomberg.

At the same time, overall EV sales surged 37%, with rival carmakers making strong gains in Germany and the UK.

In the UK, Tesla trailed China’s BYD for the first time, with sales falling nearly 8% in a market that grew 42%.

Tesla is overhauling production lines for its top-selling Model Y SUV while its CEO, Elon Musk, grows more politically divisive.

The Bloomberg report says that a YouGov poll in mid-January found Musk viewed unfavorably in Germany and the UK, where his political involvement was largely unwelcome. On Jan. 9, he hosted Alternative for Germany leader Alice Weidel on his platform X, backing the anti-immigration, pro-Russian party, which finished second in this week’s election.

After backing Donald Trump in the U.S. election cycle, Musk has turned to Europe, supporting far-right parties and criticizing incumbents. He has also joined Trump in attacking Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy, despite polls showing continued domestic support for the leader.

At an AfD rally in January, Musk urged Germans to embrace their culture and downplay historical guilt, a remark that sparked controversy ahead of the 80th anniversary of Auschwitz’s liberation. He also called for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s imprisonment while advocating for jailed far-right activists.

Meanwhile, Tesla likely faced inventory shortages after an end-of-year sales push, compounded by Model Y assembly line changes. CFO Vaibhav Taneja warned that redesigning Tesla’s best-selling model would cause weeks of lost production.

Competition in Europe is intensifying, with Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Renault under mounting pressure to sell more EVs. Stricter EU emissions targets and the UK’s ramp-up to zero-emission sales by 2035 add to the challenge.

Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research said in a note out Tuesday morning that Q1 is "shaping up as an absolute disaster of a delivery quarter".  

Johnson argues that Tesla's stock is poised to be one of the best short opportunities in 2025, citing a combination of business struggles and a lack of external factors that could artificially support the stock price. He believes Tesla faces a challenging year because it must finally deliver on promises related to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and Optimus robot without any political or financial lifelines to prop up investor sentiment.

Johnson is particularly skeptical of Tesla's driverless technology, predicting that its rollout in June 2025 will either be a failure or face significant delays due to fundamental flaws in its camera-only approach. He insists that without LiDAR and radar, Tesla's system remains highly error-prone. Additionally, he criticizes the Optimus robot, arguing that it lags behind industry standards and is inferior even to robotics technology developed decades ago.

More importantly, he points to the deterioration of Tesla's core automotive business, which accounted for nearly 90% of its revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, as a sign of deeper troubles. He asserts that Tesla's brand is losing its appeal globally, with many consumers viewing its vehicles negatively.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 15:00

Worried About Crypto And Its Connection To Markets?

Worried About Crypto And Its Connection To Markets?

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

I am focused on crypto and potential risk to stocks from further crypto declines.

A decent percentage of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs has occurred since the election and they are all underwater (see chart).

This is important because not only are the ETFs now linking stocks more closely to crypto, MSTR is in the Nasdaq 100 (only 0.4% weighting but in there).

MSTX is a double leveraged ETF on MSTR (representing almost 3% of the float). 

The single stock leveraged ETFs are not a product I understand the need for, but it can be dangerous on a big move to the downside.

MSTR trades at a significant premium to its value in Bitcoin.

I think the crypto world is more tied to equities than at any previous time and that is increasingly scary...

Between the ETFs and MSTR, we are seeing a lot more correlation and impact on daily trading.

We will see what the market cap for the two big stable coins USDT and USDC look like. 

They added over $40 billion since the election, which should have helped at the front of the yield curve.

I think, like many other things, and as mentioned in this weekend's T-Report – All Roads Lead to Mar-a-Lago, the Nasdaq 100 gets back to pre-election levels.

Finally, the "Mexico and Canada tariffs are still on" message from the president yesterday seemed odd and brings up my big concern of "re-trading" - making me more convinced that wherever we wind up in the end (and a lot of rosy scenarios are still in play), there is going to be a hiccup.

Extra finally, the rate move is concerning because it is now much more about de-risking and fears about the economy, than cuts to boost an otherwise ok economy. 

I now regret being bearish on treasuries, and think we might need to see 3 to 4 cuts this year, rather than the 2 priced in so far.

Working on more specifics, but the Citi Econ Surprise index tells a good enough (or bad enough) story for now!

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 14:40

Stellar 5Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand

Stellar 5Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Foreign Demand

After one of the strongest 2Y auction on record, the streak of strong coupon sales extended for a second day and despite the continued plunge in yields, which dipped well below 4.30% at one point in the day, today's sale of $70BN in 5Y paper was flawless, and almost as strong as yesterday's auction.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.123%, down 20bps from 4.330% last month and the lowest since Sept 24; it also stopped 1bps through the When Issued, the 4th consecutive stop through and the highest since December 2013.

The bid to cover was fractionally better than last month, but for some bizarre reason this metric has completely frozen for the 5Y tenor as you can see here, with the final print barely moving month after month:

  • July 24: 2.40
  • Aug 24: 2.41
  • Sept 24: 2.38
  • Oct 24: 2.39
  • Nov 24: 2.43
  • Dec 24: 2.40
  • Jan 24: 2.40
  • Feb 24: 2.42

Finally, the internals were stellar, and while not quite as stellar as yesterday's 2Y which saw record foreign demand, Indirects still surged from 62.8% to 74.9%, the highest since October 2024. And with Directs taking 14.5%, Dealers were left with 10.6%, the lowest since May 2024.

And yet, another stellar coupon auction and... the market barely noticed for the second day in a row, with yields having already tumbled more than 10bps on the day as a result of the ongoing retail liquidation which has hammered stocks and pushed capital into the "safety" of bonds, which will remain safe at least until the Trump admin realizes - and admits - that it is facing an even bigger debt avalanche in the next 4 years. But we'll cross that bridge in due course...

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 13:41

Musk's Starlink Reportedly Set To Upgrade America's National Airspace System

Musk's Starlink Reportedly Set To Upgrade America's National Airspace System

Bloomberg reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX subsidiary, Starlink, is preparing to deploy terminals nationwide to upgrade the Federal Aviation Administration's national airspace system. Musk responded to the report on X, indicating that the current ground-based internet, managed by Verizon, "is not working and so is putting air travelers at serious risk." 

Here's more from the report:

Musk approved a shipment of 4,000 Starlink terminals to the FAA last week for the initiative, said one of the people. One terminal has already been installed at the FAA's air-traffic control technology lab in Atlantic City, New Jersey, for testing, the person said.

The person familiar with the matter said the program will be called TDM X. The goal is to have the entire program fully functional within 12 to 18 months.

An FAA spokesperson confirmed Bloomberg's report, stating that the agency is testing one terminal in Atlantic City and two in Alaska. The military has used Starlink terminals at remote bases for the past few years.

Calls to upgrade the nation's air traffic control system come weeks after Elon Musk, a special government employee in charge of DOGE, said his team will support the urgent need to make "rapid safety upgrades to the air traffic control system." 

Trump has urged Congress to modernize the nation's aging air traffic control system following last month's midair collision between a Black Hawk helicopter and a regional jet near Ronald Reagan National Airport, which killed 67. 

Where was the Biden-Harris administration's urgent push to upgrade the national airspace system?

We know why this wasn't a priority—because DEI took center stage over the nation. 

Under the Biden-Harris regime, Starlink was banished from the rural federal program to connect America, primarily because of the Biden admin's dislike of Musk. Now, Starlink has rolled out across Ukraine for cellular service, while T-Mobile in the US has the same service. 

Recall legacy telecoms AT&T and Verizon have used lawfare to slow down Starlink's constellation building in low-Earth orbit. 

Last week, Goldman turned bullish on part suppliers for Starlink satellites...

Starlink will continue to soar as the roadblocks the Biden admin put up have vanished. We suspect a Starlink IPO will occur during Trump's second term.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 10:40

Ukraine Already Lost The War But The EU Hasn't Figured That Out

Ukraine Already Lost The War But The EU Hasn't Figured That Out

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

A negotiated settlement, land for peace is what I said in 2022. Terms now include mineral rights.

Lost in a Hobbesian World

Eurointelligence notes the EU is Lost in a Hobbesian World

For a European, being isolated is probably the worst thing that can ever happen to you. Not getting invited to the Munich Security Conference would be an unrecoverable career setback. When Emmanuel Macron invited a few selected leaders to a summit a couple of weeks ago, the big debating point amongst EU folk was, who was invited and who was not. It was not about what the meeting should accomplish. Sitting at a table is really important to Europeans.

This is all fine for as you are dealing with relatively unimportant things, like financial regulation. But this is not the mindset with which you want to fight a war. We have yet to meet a European with a worked-out strategy to defeat Vladimir Putin. We are red-liners. We argue from first principles. We claim that we will support Ukraine for however long it takes. This idea worked spectacularly well for the ECB in the fight against speculators. But it does not translate to wars. 

Ukraine has lost the war. We have no strategy to change this. Of all the nonsense Trump said and tweeted last week – and most of it was nonsense – he was correct on the essential issue – that the war is not winnable. He told us during his campaign that he wants to cut a deal.

The Europeans are in their unfortunate situation on the cats’ table of international diplomacy because they outsourced strategic thinking. The US acts, we react. Trump speaks. We are outraged. When Trump threatens tariffs, we threaten retaliation. Strategic thinking means making sacrifices, thinking ahead, factoring in what your opponent will do in response to your actions, have a strategy for second-best outcomes, and one for retreat and defeat.

In a world in which strategic thinking counts, the EU is hopelessly lost.

Delusions of Nonsense

CNN reports Zelensky says ready to quit if it brings peace, pushes back on US demand for Ukrainian minerals

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he was “ready” to resign as leader if it meant it would bring peace to his country, suggesting he could swap it for NATO membership – while also pushing back against US demands for Ukraine’s critical minerals and other natural resources as part of negotiations to end the war.

Asked at a press conference Sunday if he was ready to quit if it ensures peace for Ukraine, Zelensky said: “If (it guarantees) peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to resign, I am ready. I can exchange it for NATO.”

Earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that Kyiv joining NATO was unrealistic, upending the alliance’s stated policy that Ukraine was on an “irreversible path” to membership.

The Ukrainian president’s remarks come amid an ongoing spat with US President Donald Trump, who has called Zelensky a “dictator” for not holding elections while Ukraine remains at war.

Zelensky on Sunday also pushed back against Trump’s demand for a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s deposits of rare earths and other minerals as part of a draft “deal” Trump said would reflect the amount of aid the US has provided to Ukraine during its war with Russia.

“I am not going to recognize $500 (billion),” Zelensky said during a press conference at a forum marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US was one of Ukraine’s closest allies under the Biden administration, providing the country with tens of billions worth of military aid. But Trump has made it clear that he thinks the US should no longer send aid to Ukraine without getting anything in return.

Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit

The New York Times reports Zelensky Pushes Back Against U.S. Mineral Deal and Announces European Summit

President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed back on Sunday against demands from the Trump administration for billions in Ukrainian natural resources and for holding peace talks that exclude Ukraine, while announcing plans for a major summit of European leaders on Monday.

Mr. Zelensky suggested that in assailing Ukraine, Mr. Trump had chosen the wrong adversary.

“If peace for Ukraine requires me to step down, I’m ready,” Mr. Zelensky said on the eve of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Another scenario: I could trade my position for NATO membership, if that’s what it takes,” he added.

Mr. Zelensky has said he will not accept any agreement negotiated between the United States and Russia without Ukraine’s participation.

“This is how we see this negotiation table: Ukraine as part of Europe, Europe, the United States and Russia. That’s approximately how we envision it,” he said.

Mr. Zelensky has been advised by European allies to tone down his confrontation with the American president. But on Sunday, he did not back away from his earlier comments and repeated his assertion that Mr. Trump is living in a disinformation bubble.

Mr. Zelensky’s pushback on Sunday could further anger Mr. Trump, who is pressing for a minerals deal and a peace agreement on terms he wants to dictate.

“I am not signing something that 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to repay,” Mr. Zelensky said, noting that negotiations would continue. Drawing on Ukraine’s revenue from natural resources, he said, it might take 250 years to pay $500 billion, which he called an unrealistic sum.

On Friday, the United States proposed a new draft agreement, obtained by The New York Times, which still lacked security guarantees for Ukraine and included even tougher financial terms. The new draft reiterated a U.S. demand that Ukraine relinquish half of its revenues from natural resource extraction, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as earnings from ports and other infrastructure.

Under the proposed terms, those revenues would be directed to a fund in which the United States would hold 100 percent financial interest, and Ukraine should contribute to the fund until it reaches $500 billion. That sum is more than twice the value of Ukraine’s economic output in 2021, before the war.

The agreement does not commit the United States to security guarantees for Ukraine, or promise further military support for Kyiv. The word “security” was even deleted from a formulation contained in a previous version of the deal, dated Feb. 14 and reviewed by The Times, which stated that both countries aimed to achieve “lasting peace and security in Ukraine.”

No, Yes, No, then Nonsense

Zelensky said no to a deal for minerals, then reportedly yes, then no again, and now nonsense about stepping down if the US will let Ukraine in NATO.

Heck, not even the EU wants Ukraine in NATO or the EU now because of the dollar commitment it would take.

And where is the EU going to get troops or weapons.

The EU announces a conference, fails to invite Trump, but Trump likely would not have gone anyway.

No Position to Make Demands

Neither the EU nor Zelensky is in a position to make demands. If Ukraine won’t give Trump mineral rights, perhaps Putin would.

The US will not let Ukraine in NATO, nor will Russia, and despite EU talk, the EU is not ready for that either.

Zelensky is driving for a bargain that neither the US nor Russia would accept.

When Zelensky pushed back, the terms offered by Trump got worse.

Questions of the Day

Q: Will the EU send troops?
A: No

Q: Will the EU give Ukraine enough weapons if the US drops support?
A: No

Q: Will the EU help rebuild Ukraine?
A: Perhaps a pittance

Q: Is there any point to a summit without Trump?
A: No

The EU wants to be at the table. Trump will make fun of table the EU set.

Negotiated Settlement

September 7, 2022: Q&A on Putin and Energy Price Caps, Does Anyone Have a Better Idea?

Two Good Ideas

  • End the sanctions. 
  • Prepare for a negotiated settlement whether Ukraine likes it or not.

Instead, we are doing the opposite, compete with people suggesting there are no batter things to do than something that is downright asinine.

November 7, 2023: If the US Has a Goal in Ukraine or Israel, What the Hell Is It?

The US has already given Ukraine $75 billion. Biden wants another $100 billion for Ukraine and Israel. What exactly is the mission?

November 20, 2023: Is a NATO Backing a Negotiated Deal Between Ukraine and Russia?

What’s Guaranteed to Happen?

I have written about this many times before. There is going to be a negotiated settlement that is not going to fully please anyone.

When? It will happen after both sides have had enough of destruction and lives lost, likely accelerated by political events in the US.

February 16, 2025: Why is Trump Leading the Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Without the EU?

Because 1) no one else has a plan, 2) Trump’s plan is likely to work, 3) the EU would screw it up.

The Goal and a Mission

Like it or not, we now have a goal and a mission. They are one and the same, end the war.

The war will end as I repeatedly stated since 2022, a negotiated settlement.

You can agree or disagree with Trump’s approach or the appeasement of Putin. But you cannot change the facts.

The longer Zelensky holds out the more territory Ukraine will lose.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 10:20

US Home Prices Accelerated To New Record High In December (Except Tampa Again!)

US Home Prices Accelerated To New Record High In December (Except Tampa Again!)

For the second straight month, US home prices accelerated YoY in December (according to the latest data from S&P Global's Case-Shiller Index). The 20-City Composite saw prices jump 0.5% MoM (faster than expected and the biggest jump since June) and accelerating MoM for the 3rd straight month...

Source: Bloomberg

But, Tampa prices continue to tumble..

In fact, Tampa prices are at their lowest since Sept 2023...

Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, things do not end well...

Source: Bloomberg

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag)...

Source: Bloomberg

So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices...

Source: Bloomberg

Well played Fed!!

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 09:11

Vegas Hotel Rooms, MLB Stadium Rentals, & More: DOGE Finds Schools Misused Billions In COVID Funds

Vegas Hotel Rooms, MLB Stadium Rentals, & More: DOGE Finds Schools Misused Billions In COVID Funds

Schools misused hundreds of billions in COVID-relief funds on questionable expenses with minimal student impact, according to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, according to Fox News.

A report by Parents Defending Education, shared by DOGE, highlighted spending such as $86,000 on Las Vegas hotel rooms by Utah’s Granite Public Schools and $393,000 by California’s Santa Ana Unified to rent a Major League Baseball stadium.

DOGE also found schools spent COVID-relief funds on swimming pool passes and even an ice cream truck:

The cost-cutting department also revealed that schools spent $60,000 of COVID-relief funds on swimming pool passes, while a California district used its funds to purchase an ice cream truck.

The Fox News report says that the Trump administration is tightening oversight on the remaining $4 billion in funds, requiring receipts before release.

DOGE wrote in a post on X: "All of this money was drawn with zero documentation."

Mom's For Liberty wrote: "Recall those school board meetings when the ruling elites of Covidstan branded mothers as selfish disruptors simply for challenging their interpretation of "The Science" and scrutinizing how they allocated ESSER Funds? Never let them forget that we were right about everything."

"This is outrageous," said Will O'Neil, chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, who called the money spent on an MLB stadium "an absolute joke". 

DOGE has cut $370 million in Department of Education (DoEd) spending on DEI programs, axing 70 grants, including one for anti-racism training for teachers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 08:50

Watch: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr Scales 1,800-Foot Tower

Watch: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr Scales 1,800-Foot Tower

The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission scaled an 1,865-foot tall broadcast tower on Monday, which he filmed and posted to X.

"If we are going to continue to expand connectivity we need a lot more tower climbers. It’s a great job. It’s a good-paying job and it’s a career," said Carr, who strapped on a harness and took at 20-minute ride in a lift called a "pan," before transferring to the tower.

According to News Nation, only around 200 people climb and maintain these broadcast towers nationwide.

"It is always a fun experience to get up in the air and hang with a tower crew," said Carr, who complimented tower technician Hasani Hogan, an Army veteran.

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"What a guy. It shows his bravery, his abilities and his commitment to the broadcast industry and our guys that do this. He has done it before and is willing to do it again," said Carr.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/25/2025 - 08:10

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