US To Roll Back Some China Tariffs If Beijing Cracks Down On Export Of Fentanyl Precursor Chemicals

The US is prepared to roll back some tariffs on China if Beijing cracks down on the export of chemicals that produce fentanyl, under a trade framework that President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to discuss Thursday, the WSJ reported citing people familiar. 

According to the report, China is expected to commit to more controls on the export of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl. In return, the U.S. could cut its 20% fentanyl-related tariff on Chinese goods by as much as 10%, the people said.

If Trump lowers the fentanyl-tariff on Chinese goods to 10%, it would bring the average tariff on most Chinese imports, currently around 55%, to about 45%. That would put China’s average tariff rate closer to those of other trading partners, potentially reducing the price competitiveness of goods manufactured outside of China. Indicatively, goods from India and Brazil face 50% tariffs, and the Trump administration has said Chinese goods transshipped through Southeast Asian nations would face 40% tariffs, much higher than the 19%-20% rate for other goods from the region.

Bringing the total tariffs on China closer to the 40% levies threatened on Southeast Asian nations would reduce the incentive for Chinese firms to transship goods through those economies to the U.S., while potentially motivating more direct trade between China and the U.S.

The administration reached two trade agreements and two frameworks with Southeast Asian nations this week that included provisions to prevent China from exporting goods through their economies at below-market prices.

The U.S. and China are also expected to reduce port fees on each other’s ships, the report goes on.

Separately, China is also expected to commit to significant purchases of American soybeans, Bessent said in a CBS News interview on Sunday, potentially bringing relief to U.Sp. farmers hit hard by the loss of Chinese buyers this year.

If Beijing agrees, the framework would ease market-rattling tensions between the world’s two biggest economies. Earlier this month, China tightened controls on rare earths, a sector it dominates, potentially jolting global supply chains that rely on them to manufacture everything from electric vehicles to jet fighters. In turn Trump threatened another 100% tariffs on China. Now, under the new framework, the U.S. expects China to delay the new rare-earths rules.

“I believe that they are going to delay that for a year while they re-examine it,” Bessent said in an interview with ABC News on Sunday.

The expected deferral of China’s latest rare-earth controls means Trump’s threat to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods by Nov. 1 is now “effectively off the table,” Bessent told CBS News.

There's more: Chinese negotiators are also expecting the U.S. to freeze potential new policy actions deemed as harmful to China, such as controls on exports of products made with U.S. software. Bessent told CBS News on Sunday there have been no changes to U.S. export controls.

It is unclear how the framework would affect a different set of rare-earths restrictions that Beijing announced in April. The established licensing system suggests authorities could ramp up rare-earth restrictions again if the U.S. were to impose new trade policies deemed harmful to China.

Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang, a senior member of China’s trade delegation, said the two sides have reached “preliminary consensus” on issues including export controls, reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl-related tariffs, cooperation on fentanyl, an expansion of bilateral trade and port fees. Both sides will then go through domestic approval processes, he said.

“The current turbulences and twists and turns are the ones that we do not wish to see,” Li said.

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Kash Patel is set to travel to Beijing to discuss the fentanyl issue with Chinese authorities, said people familiar with the matter.

The expected agreements are subject to change and dependent on the meeting of the two leaders. Details are expected to be hammered out in subsequent negotiations.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 12:50

Two-Screen Analysis

By Michael Every of Rabobank

A depressing development in Hollywood, besides CGI and AI, is the rise of ‘two-screen viewing’, where scripts are simplified so audiences glued to their phones can follow the ‘plot’ in the background rather than being distracted by it: TV/movies are ‘product’ for those who don’t pay attention. One could argue the same with financial market media and ‘two-screen analysis’.

None are covering Islamist Sudanese paramilitaries advancing into the military’s last stronghold in Darfur: there are no assets there. But none are covering Russia’s test of a powerful new missile either, or Norway’s defence minister warning Moscow is concentrating its nuclear forces in the Arctic Circle in preparation “for war with NATO”, or Trump telling Putin the US has “the world’s greatest nuclear submarine stationed right off their shores." They only notice the deals related to the above, such as Lukoil planning to sell its international assets following US sanctions. That’s being behind the curve, to use the language financial media purport to understand.

There are plenty of such deals - and sparse analysis of them. The UK just agreed an $11bn Eurofighter sale to Turkey when the Ministry of Defense is reportedly underfunded and planning cuts even as it’s told to rearm rapidly. Politico claims to have ‘Germany’s new €377bn military wish list’ to become the most powerful conventional military in Europe: it’s of course anchored in German industry, with the exception of a few key US systems, such as upgraded F-15s and 400 Tomahawk missiles. There are implications there for Europe in multiple dimensions.

The US losing a helicopter and fighter jet within 30 minutes in the South China Sea yesterday may have been down to “bad fuel”, according to Trump. If so, it’s an indictment of US Navy logistics. That’s why we are seeing US strategic deals with South Korea and Japan to build US ships in their shipyards; the US says Japan's pledged $550bn FDI package will focus on infrastructure such as electricity and energy; and Trump and PM Takaichi will today talk trade and defence, which are increasingly the same thing.

On which note, Europe has also seen far-from-normal developments:

Former ECB President Draghi called for “pragmatic federalism” where clusters of EU countries agree to policies rather than one-size fits all. EC President Von der Leyen laid out green tech policies that imply massive use of economic statecraft: huge non-tariff barriers (“Made in Europe” for all state tenders); capital controls (screen FDI so it’s “in the EU’s interests”: and outbound FDI?); and tariffs and subsidies (support for key sectors - “You are critical to Europe's future. and your future will be made in Europe. That is critical for us”). 

Both Macron and VdL threatened China with the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument over withholding rare earths, which would shatter EU-China trade and make the Nexperia crisis look like nothing, even as its China parent Wingtech declares a cash-flow risk and an EU car production shutdowns loom as chip supplies dry up, Covid-style.

The EU is to launch a "RESourceEU" plan before end-2025, on top of the EU Critical Minerals Act that has so far achieved little, to: diversify supply chains (to countries who already did deals with the US and China); boost domestic extraction and refining in the EU (which is highly polluting and uneconomic); scaling up recycling; and strengthening strategic reserves to guard against supply disruptions (so central planning and commodity buying as well as the need to set agreed market price ceilings and floors?).

Moreover, Politico also reports the ‘EU will move to take on Wall Street with major financial reform proposals’. These include amending the EU’s flagship financial market rules, MiFID and MiFIR; for clearinghouses (EMIR); investments (AIFMD/the UCITS Directive); central securities depositories (CSDR); crypto rules (MiCA); and the regulation of markets watchdog (ESMA). Moreover, the Commission is also planning to propose financial markets supervision moving from the national to EU level. As said here many times, geopolitics now drives market paradigm shifts.

In Latin America, Argentina’s markets rallied strongly over Milei’s political victory. Moreover, Brazil’s Lula stated he sees a “definitive solution’ with the US coming within days, and that Trump “guaranteed” him a trade deal: is it a coincidence that Lula also offered to help the US mediate with Venezuela? On that front, Venezuela is moving to cancel energy agreements with Trinidad after a US warship arrived at the neighbouring island nation, which analysts see hurts Venezuela more than Trinidad.

In North America, Canada’s PM Carney is now floating dropping the 100% tariff on Chinese EVs it had agreed in line with the US in return for lower tariffs on Canadian pork and canola into China. Now that there is no transshipment possible into the US due to its tariffs on Canada --could they now go higher in response?-- that just implies more pressure on the Canadian auto industry already struggling with the loss of sales to the US and potential production shifts south of the border. One wonders if any analysis of the value-add of the agri vs auto industries is being done – is there an economic statecraft target in either direction, or is it just potentially-expensive ‘we have options, you know’ messaging to Trump?

In Asia, after Trump’s swirl of charm-offensive critical minerals deals and a Thailand-Cambodia peace treaty, China and ASEAN inked an upgraded free trade pact covering digital, green economies, and supply chain connectivity.

In the domestic political economy sphere, but with global implications, Australia’s largest aluminium smelter is in employee talks for potential closure: is the Aussie role in the new geopolitical geoeconomic order also just the old one – resources?

UK Chancellor Reeves reportedly faces another £20bn hit to UK public finances due to a downgrading of assumed UK productivity by the budget watchdog by 0.3 percentage points per annum.

The French parliament just voted to increase corporation tax from 33.8% to 35% next year, as the Socialist Party will reportedly wait until the end of the week to decide whether to topple the government over a wealth tax, which they want to see start at 3% of assets over €10m, not 2% on over €100m, as the government proposes.

Spain’s already-wobbly government lost a coalition partner, making the passage of any legislation more difficult; and

In the US, the Wall Street Journal says, ‘Amazon to Lay Off Up to 30,000 Corporate Workers’, and below it, ‘The Good Vibes Are Back on Wall Street’. In-between is a smaller headline stating that big firms think they can keep growing without hiring anyone.

Meanwhile, The Economist proclaims, ‘The end of the rip-off economy’ as “From finance and medicine to used cars, artificial intelligence is radically improving market efficiency.” Is that also twin-screen analysis, where a ‘Hollywood ending’ plot is shot-gunned into the eyes of those who might otherwise see a vastly more complex, nuanced, and perhaps even diametrically opposed picture?

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 12:45

Nvidia's $1 Billion Bet Aims To Transform Nokia Into The West's Answer To Huawei

The endless stream of AI headlines continues...

Just ahead of the lunch hour in New York, Bloomberg reported that Nvidia will invest $1 billion in Nokia, acquiring a 2.9% stake by purchasing 166 million shares at $6.01 each. The headline was enough to catapult Nokia's shares in Europe up 17%. U.S.-listed shares were briefly halted, now up 21%.

Under the new partnership, Nvidia's AI chips will power Nokia's AI-accelerated 5G and 6G software and will explore integrating Nokia's data center technologies into Nvidia's own infrastructure. The deal transforms Nokia into the only Western full-stack alternative to Huawei in the telecommunications grid.

CEO Justin Hotard has led Nokia's impressive turnaround. He recently acquired Infinera for $2.3 billion to expand into AI networking hardware. For Nvidia, this partnership adds to the ever-expanding list of AI investments, which includes OpenAI, Wayve, Oxa, Revolut, PolyAI, and a billion-euro data center project with Deutsche Telekom.

U.S.-listed Nokia shares jumped as much as 21%.

The 21% move higher is the largest intraday gain in U.S.-listed Nokia shares since January 2021.

What happened to Nokia? Thought it was dead. Everyone who was around in the 1990s and early 2000s who had a Nokia handset remembers this...

Now, Nokia is being positioned to become the "Huawei of the West." What a dramatic turnaround.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 12:10

The 3 Stages Of Gold Miners

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

As we wait patiently for this correction in gold, silver, and miners to end, now is an excellent time to review the fundamentals of precious metal miners.

This is especially important for those of you looking to start or add to positions during this pullback.

Today we’re going to explore the three types of mining stocks:

• Producers

• Developers

• Explorers.

We’ll explain the risk/reward of each stage, which is critical to finding success in this sector.

Producers: The Safest Bet

Producers are miners already producing metal. Barrick Mining (B) is a classic example of a large (senior) gold producer.

In 2024, Barrick produced 3.91 million ounces of gold, worth over $15 billion at $4,000/oz. The company also produced 195,000 tonnes of copper, and plenty of silver, lead, and other metals.

Producers are the safest bet in mining, yet still offer plenty of upside. They tend to outperform in the early stages of precious metal bull markets.

Because they’re already producing metal, rising gold and silver prices immediately boost their revenue and profitability.

Well-run producers have significant leverage to underlying precious metal prices.

For example, let’s say that 2 years ago, the average producer was pulling gold from the ground at a cost of $1,300 per ounce and selling it at $1,900.

That’s a profit of $600/oz, not bad. But today many producers are pulling gold out of the dirt for $1,500/oz, and selling it at $4,000.

That’s a profit of $2,500 per ounce. About 4x higher than it was just 2 years ago. This is why it’s not surprising that big gold miners have nearly doubled over the last year. And why they could have much further to run.

Institutional investors tend to stick to producers, because only these companies have the liquidity and size that allow substantial buying.

Producers are great. The vast majority of my portfolio is in this stage.

But some people like a higher risk/reward, and that’s where developers (and explorers) come into play.

Developers: Harder Difficulty

Gold/silver developers are companies that have already gotten through the exploration stage. They’ve drilled and surveyed their claims, and now it’s time to start getting all the necessary permits and building infrastructure.

Developers have little, if any revenue. Yet they do have substantial costs. So raising money is an important part of being a development-stage miner. You need an experienced team who knows how to navigate capital markets.

A great management team will minimize share dilution and raise capital strategically and smartly. Most others will dilute heavily and struggle to reward shareholders.

Investing in developers isn’t easy. You need to correctly analyze:

• Geology – is the deposit a worthy one?

• Capital markets – is the company efficiently raising money?

• Management – does leadership know how to hire the right team and run a mine?

Investing in developers is far more challenging than producers. But it can be extremely rewarding. Successfully investing in developers also takes patience. It takes many years to successfully develop a precious metals mine.

Development-stage miners sometimes outperform producers in the second stage of a bull market (we have only begun to see hints of this).

But unless you’re a geologist with deep investing experience, it’s best to leave this category to the experts like Jim Rickards, Byron King, and Dan Amoss.

And still, I prefer to keep the vast majority of my miner exposure in producers.

Explorers: Advanced Investors Only

Ahh, now we finally come to the explorers. This includes the “penny dreadfuls”, as Rick Rule calls them. The tiny juniors with nothing but a patch of dirt, a dream, and an investor pitch deck.

In previous bull markets, explorers have outperformed in the later stages of the cycle. Once general investors flood into the market, they often seek out high leverage opportunities. And when money floods into this miniscule corner of the market, things can get crazy.

It’s important to note, however, that the vast majority of explorer-stage miners will fail. Their deposit won’t pan out, or they’ll fail to raise the necessary capital. Or they won’t get the necessary permits. Or one of a dozen other bad outcomes will happen.

However, maybe 1% of explorers will eventually become huge winners (100x+ returns are possible over many years). These are the few that will make it to the large-scale production stage, or become acquired somewhere along the way.

But picking winning explorers isn’t easy, even for professionals. This stage is for advanced investors only. If you’re buying explorers based on some random article or post you find online, chances are high you’re being marketed to.

The mining space is full of stock promotions, so whenever you hear a pitch for a tiny junior explorer, your spidey-senses should be tingling.

Don’t get me wrong, in a bull market you can make money even on mediocre explorers. But just keep in mind that there’s a good chance the company won’t make it to the development or producer stages.

Only invest in explorers when recommended by someone you trust. And even then, there’s a decent chance it won’t work out.

If you want to also speculate on some explorers and developers, do so thoughtfully. Follow the lead of experts like the ones we have here at Paradigm. Jim Rickards, Dan Amoss, and Byron King are all world-class mining analysts. And even then, they’ll mostly steer you towards the big producers, because they offer a superior risk/reward equation.

For a diversified approach to smaller stocks in this sector, I like the Sprott Junior Gold Miner ETF (SGDJ). There’s also the GDXJ “junior” miner ETF, but that’s really not a junior fund. It’s become too large, and so they’ve been forced to invest in stocks that aren’t exactly junior.

For most investors, sticking to senior producers is by far the safest bet. And as I mentioned, there’s still plenty of upside in these stocks.

One final note. There is overlap within these stages. For example, producers are also exploring and developing. But explorers are not producing. And that’s a key difference.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 12:05

The Volatility Vanishing Act: Cracks Beneath The Facade Ahead of Mag-7 Earnings

Volatility trapdoored last week, but don't let the calm surface fool you. Underneath, the options market is still shouting Danger.

The result? A market ripe for reversal if macro risks reemerge, setting up traders for a potential rug-pull scenario.

Indeed, while the front end of the volatility curve crashed, longer-dated futures remain sticky, a sign that big institutional money isn’t buying the narrative just yet. The volatility term structure remains quite elevated over the historical 90day range, as shown below. 

This raises the important question: What risks should the market brace for?

Our partners at SpotGamma provide an answer today at 1:30pm, when they hold a Free Webinar, so Grab Your Seat.

FOMC, China Trade, and Geopolitical Risk

It's shaping up as the most volatile 72 hours of the quarter, between central bank announcements, Mag 7 earnings, and the Trump-Xi summit. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is expected to deliver high drama, as the board juggles inflation, tepid growth, and a market that's already on edge.

Meanwhile, uncertainty in trade relations with China continues to hang like a sword over global supply chains, feeding into the global risk premium at a time when every tick counts and complacency is dangerous.

Earnings: The Shockwaves from NFLX & TSLA

Proving the cracks in single stock optimism, Netflix and Tesla posted massive earnings misses. This sent their shares into freefall last week, sounding the alarm for both the service and discretionary goods sectors.

Netflix was hit with a surprise $619 million tax expense from Brazil, which obliterated its EPS estimates, while Tesla watched costs surge — even record sales couldn't save its bottom line from sliding sharply.

If this signals trouble at the top of the market, the ripple could easily transform into a wave for smaller players who lack the financial cushion to weather hits like these.

Global Business: No Sanctuary from the Storm

Don't look abroad for shelter — global business remains hostage to volatility, regulatory headaches, and shifting policies.

Major U.S. indices slumped last week as investors digested earnings carnage and waited nervously for the next shoe to drop from tariff talks, all while economic data releases have ground to a halt from the government shutdown.

The overwhelming global anxiety in today’s market highlights how no corner of the market is truly immune from the current tumult.

Path Forward: Prepare for Anything

Despite headline risks and high-profile earnings shocks, the options landscape tells a story of unexpected short-term stability — at least for now.

But as we approach a schedule full of high-profile market events, turbulent MAG7 earnings, and a global business environment unlike any other, traders need to monitor what could trigger the collapse of our current market stability.

As we watch the next FOMC announcement and further China trade headlines, all eyes should remain glued to volatility — a hidden force that shows us how much movement the market expects. Once traders begin expecting more meaningful price action, then we know the the stage is set for true fireworks.

To understand how volatility drives your PnL, SpotGamma is hosting Hidden Forces Unmasked kicking off on October 28 at 1:30pm ET. Sign up now for this FREE live event and get access to multiple deep dive sessions plus exclusive access to five new SpotGamma tools.

Save a spot – LIVE FREE WEBINAR TUE, OCT 28th at 1:30PM ET

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 11:45

$500 Billion & Counting: Next Chapter In Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership Revealed

Microsoft and OpenAI signed a new, long-term, definitive agreement that opens the next chapter of their partnership, advancing their "vision to advance artificial intelligence responsibly" and "make its benefits broadly accessible."

Under the new agreement, OpenAI's recapitalization and formation of a public benefit corporation (PBC) means that Microsoft now holds a 27% stake, down from 32.5% in previous funding rounds. This stake is now valued at $135 billion. 

"The agreement preserves key elements that have fueled this successful partnership – meaning OpenAI remains Microsoft's frontier model partner and Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity until Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)," Microsoft wrote in a press release. 

OpenAI plans to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services. Microsoft will have access to OpenAI's models until 2032. However, the new agreement shows that Microsoft loses its exclusive right of first refusal as the compute provider for the chatbot-maker. 

Microsoft outlines the new framework governing its partnership with OpenAI:

• Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel.

• Microsoft's IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now include models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails.

• Microsoft's IP rights to research, defined as the confidential methods used in the development of models and systems, will remain until either the expert panel verifies AGI or through 2030, whichever is first. Research IP includes, for example, models intended for internal deployment or research only. Beyond that research IP does not include model architecture, model weights, inference code, finetuning code, and any IP related to data center hardware and software; and Microsoft retains these non-Research IP rights.

• Microsoft's IP rights now exclude OpenAI's consumer hardware.

• OpenAI can now jointly develop some products with third parties. API products developed with third parties will be exclusive to Azure. Non-API products may be served on any cloud provider.

• Microsoft can now independently pursue AGI alone or in partnership with third parties.

• If Microsoft uses OpenAI's IP to develop AGI, prior to AGI being declared, the models will be subject to compute thresholds; those thresholds are significantly larger than the size of systems used to train leading models today. The revenue share agreement remains until the expert panel verifies AGI, though payments will be made over a longer period of time.

• OpenAI has contracted to purchase an incremental $250B of Azure services, and Microsoft will no longer have a right of first refusal to be OpenAI's compute provider.

• OpenAI can now provide API access to US government national security customers, regardless of the cloud provider.

• OpenAI is now able to release open weight models that meet requisite capability criteria.

Earlier.

ORACLE CEO: NOT CONCERNED ABOUT "AI BUBBLE"

well duh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 28, 2025

However, according to The Information last week, Microsoft executives warned that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's AI infrastructure demands could create overcapacity risks in data centers. That report was followed by another that showed ChatGPT's mobile app growth may already have peaked (read the report).

Also, Goldman's James Schneider told clients, "The net impact of our model updates extends the duration of peak datacenter occupancy well into 2026 (from the end of 2025 previously). After this point, we forecast a modest, but gradual loosening of supply/demand balance in 2027..."

Don't question the AI spending. 

A recent CNBC report put OpenAI's valuation at around $500 billion. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 10:15

US Consumer Sentiment Slips For 3rd Straight Month In October But Tariff-Fears Fade

American Consumers' confidence dipped to 94.6 in October (but beat expectations of 93.4) from an upwardly revised September print of 95.6.

A measure of expectations for the next six months fell in October to 71.5, the lowest since June, while a metric of present conditions increased.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the third straight monthly decline in confidence

“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

“Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out. The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024. On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.”

Under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continues...

Source: Bloomberg

Among demographic groups, confidence declined for consumers under 35 years old and, to a lesser extent, among consumers over 55. Confidence improved for consumers aged 35 to 54.

By income, confidence fell for consumers making less than $75K a year, but improved for most of the income groups making more than $75K, with the largest increase among those earning over $200K.

Younger consumers and consumers earning over $75K have been the most optimistic overall.

By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and was also slightly down among Republicans.

Finally, Guichard concluded:

“Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated."

However, Consumer assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation improved in October after dropping in September.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 10:10

Biden Judge Releases Man Who Ordered $45K Hit On Pam Bondi

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

A federal magistrate judge appointed during the Biden administration earlier this week released the anarchist accused of posting a bounty targeting Attorney General Pam Bondi. 

The judge, Douglas Micko, allowed Tyler Maxon Avalos to be released from a Minnesota federal prison as long as he does not travel outside the state and undergoes GPS monitoring. 

Avalos was arrested on Oct. 16 after allegedly posting a $45,000 bounty on Bondi, alongside an image of her with a target symbol over her head. 

Authorities were alerted to the threat on Oct. 9, describing it as a murder-for-hire scheme.

The post included the caption, “*cough cough* when they don’t serve us then what?” 

According to prosecutors, Avalos’s TikTok profile used an anarchist symbol in place of the letter “A” in “Wacko.” The page also featured a link to “An Anarchist FAQ Book,” according to Law and Order. 

An FBI affidavit detailed Avalos’s lengthy criminal record, including a 2022 felony stalking conviction and a 2016 felony third-degree domestic battery.  

He was also charged in April 2016 with misdemeanor domestic assault, which was later upgraded to felony domestic assault by strangulation. 

Under Micko’s order, Avalos must avoid alcohol, surrender any weapons, stay away from the internet and comply with a daily curfew while awaiting further court proceedings. 

Micko was appointed to the bench by the district judges of the District of Minnesota in April 2023, replacing Judge Kate Menendez, who was elevated to a higher district court position by President Joe Biden. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 09:40

Jamaica's Catastrophe Bond Faces Trigger Risk As Devastating Hurricane Melissa Nears Landfall

Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall in Jamaica today as a devastating Category 5 storm.

Prime Minister Andrew Holness warned that no Caribbean nation could withstand such a powerful force.

Now, the catastrophe bond (cat bond) market that provides coverage for the Government of Jamaica is in focus, amid the risk of triggering.

The NHC said Hurricane Melissa is forecast to make landfall on the southern coast of Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and torrential downpours expected to produce 15 to 30 inches of rain, with up to 40 inches possible in isolated areas. Storm surge could reach as high as 13 feet along Jamaica's south coast. Inland regions face a high risk of flooding and deadly landslides.

"Hour by hour, it is becoming apparent that the impact of Hurricane Melissa will be greater than the impact of Hurricane Beryl, certainly in terms of rainfall and flooding," PM Holness warned earlier. As of early Tuesday, the NHC placed the storm 55 miles west-southeast of Negril, or about 265 miles southwest of Guantánamo, Cuba.

Morning Update - Hurricane #Melissa is on final approach - and unfortunately, she’s showing no signs of weakening. Landfall is imminent.

To Jamaica - this will be unlike anything you’ve seen in your lifetime. Prepare yourselves - it’s going to get bad. Very bad

Waters will rise… pic.twitter.com/6lLnQoSn9W

— Brady Harris (@StormCat5_) October 28, 2025

Destructive winds exceeding 175 mph have shifted attention to the cat bond market, where the Caribbean island renewed a $150 million cat bond last year. The bond was initially issued by the World Bank in 2021 and renewed in April 2024. It effectively transfers extreme-loss hurricane risk to the capital markets. Now, it appears that this cat bond, covering the 2024–2027 hurricane seasons and maturing in late 2027, could be triggered.

Dr. Nigel Clarke, Jamaica's Minister of Finance and the Public Service, issued a statement in April 2024 when the $150 million cat bond was renewed, saying:

"Jamaica is pleased to have sponsored the second catastrophe bond in the international capital markets protecting Jamaica against natural disasters, with the much-appreciated support and assistance of the World Bank. Consistent with our National Natural Disaster Risk Financing Policy, we seek to ensure the availability of fiscal resources to enable an immediate response to emergency expenditures that could arise from a direct hit by a high-intensity hurricane. This catastrophe bond covers hurricane seasons 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 and complements other disaster risk-financing instruments that we have in place. We express our gratitude to the Hong Kong Insurance Authority, who supported the transaction financially."

Centralized air pressure at 8am is 952mb, which is enough to trigger it on its own. The instrument is parametric meaning it must satisfy specific parameters ie a specific pressure AND in a specific area as per grid below. Melissa is likely to meet both requirements together. pic.twitter.com/YjawxhgyCy

— Keenan Falconer (@keenanfalconer) October 26, 2025

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautioned that Melissa's 175 mph winds could cause "total structural failure" and lead to widespread power and communication outages across the island.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 09:20

US Home Prices Rebounded In August; Tampa Still Seeing Declines

After five straight months of MoM declines, S&P Case-Shiller reports that home prices in America's 20 largest cities surged 0.19% MoM (far better than then -0.10% MoM expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, price gains slowed to +1.58% (from +1.81%) - the slowest since July 2023 - the seventh straight month of deceleration in overall price gains.

As Bloomberg's Prashant Gopal notes, the easing of price growth is good news for buyers after a prolonged affordability squeeze caused by soaring prices and high mortgage rates.

"August's data shows U.S. home prices continuing to slow, with the National Index up just 1.5% year-over-year," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"This marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3% inflation rate. For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.

The index measures a three-month period ending in August, when mortgage rates were beginning to drop from near 7% and available listings were growing.

Mortgage rates suggest prices will re-accelerate, but:

"Mortgage rates remaining above 6.5% continue to weigh on buyer demand, even during what should be the busy summer season. The combination of high financing costs and prices that remain near record highs has limited transaction activity. Markets that experienced the sharpest pandemic-era gains are now seeing the largest corrections, while more affordable metros with stable local economies are holding up better. Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be finding a new equilibrium after the pandemic boom," Godec concluded.

"With price growth running at half the rate of inflation and several major markets in decline, the rapid appreciation of recent years has clearly ended. This adjustment may ultimately lead to a more sustainable market, but for now, homeowners are watching their real equity erode while buyers face the dual challenge of elevated prices and high borrowing costs."

Source: Bloomberg

Among 20 cities, New York again led the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, with a 6.1% annual gain in prices. Following were Chicago and Cleveland with increases of 5.9% and 4.7%, respectively.

Prices fell on a YoY basis in 8 cities (including LA, San Diego, and San Francisco) with Tampa falling 3.3%, the lowest of the 20 cities measured.

“Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be finding a new equilibrium after the pandemic boom,” Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.

“With price growth running at half the rate of inflation and several major markets in decline, the rapid appreciation of recent years has clearly ended.”

However, home-price changes do seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag)...

...which implies home prices could rapidly decelerate in the new year (after a brief rebound).

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 09:10

Trump Praises Japan As Key Ally, Signs Rare-Earths Deal And U.S. Investment Boost

President Trump's second stop on his three-country Asia tour was Japan, where he met overnight with newly elected conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan alliance. He praised Takaichi's plans to boost defense spending to 2% of GDP and pledged unwavering U.S. support, calling the partnership "an ally at the strongest level."

"I want to just let you know anytime you have any question, any doubt, anything you want, any favors you need, anything I can do to help Japan, we will be there," Trump said. "We are an ally at the strongest level."

"Anything I can do to help Japan, we will be there."

President Trump congratulated Japan's first woman Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, calling the U.S. an ally of the country "at the strongest level." pic.twitter.com/aXJkNsNdhx

— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 28, 2025

"We're going to do tremendous trade together, I think, more than ever before," Trump said, adding that he expected the U.S.-Japan relationship would be "stronger than ever before."

PM Takaichi gifts President @realDonaldTrump a golf bag signed by Hideki Matsuyama and Prime Minister Abe’s putter ❤️⛳️ pic.twitter.com/YlaYnfr846

— Margo Martin (@MargoMartin47) October 28, 2025

Trump and Takaichi signed deals on trade and critical minerals, largely formalizing and extending prior agreements. At the center of the deals was a $550 billion Japanese investment pledge for U.S. projects. 

The first agreement, which was very brief, called for a "new golden age" in the U.S.-Japan alliance and referred to the "GREAT DEAL" on trade that Trump announced in July, which imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese goods in exchange for $550 billion in Japanese investment in the United States.-NBC

PM Takaichi: “I held a summit meeting and a signing ceremony with President Trump of the United States. I expressed my determination to restore robust Japanese diplomacy with the Japan-U.S. Alliance as its cornerstone. President Trump and I agreed to strongly (1/2) pic.twitter.com/KLb5nH35l9

— PM's Office of Japan (@JPN_PMO) October 28, 2025

Trump framed the fund as one the U.S. could "invest as we like," while Japan described it as loans and guarantees backing Japanese firms' U.S. operations. Both sides emphasized coordination on permitting, financing, and resource mapping, but the White House acknowledged that the agreements remain ill-defined.

Headlines from the White House:

Additional headlines from earlier: 

• Trump thanked Japan for its massive investment commitments and highlighted Toyota's ongoing expansion in the U.S., noting the automaker is "putting auto plants all over the United States to the tune of over $10 billion."

• The U.S. president also highlighted America's renewed push to rebuild its shipbuilding industry, remarking, "We used to be No. 1 at making ships, and then we lost our way. But now we're starting to make ships again, and we'll do it very soon." Trump cited last year's $100 million acquisition of the Philly Shipyard by South Korea's Hanwha Group as a key step toward modernizing U.S. shipbuilding capacity.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also met. Here's a summary of that via UBS analyst Simon Penn: 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to be more diplomatic towards the BoJ in his face-to-face meetings in Tokyo than he's previously been when at home. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during his meeting with Japanese finance minister Katayama he said there was a need for "sound monetary policy formulation and communication in anchoring inflation expectations." In the past Bessent had complained that the BoJ was getting behind the curve with policy relative to inflation. In his Tokyo meetings, he still made his point, but was careful in approach. The Treasury Department said he had told Katayama that economic conditions were very different today compared to a twelve years ago and the introduction of Abenomics when the BoJ's ultra easy policy was the third arrow of economic support.

Even with these high-level trade meetings, Asian markets traded more softly this morning, led by weakness in technology stocks. South Korea and Taiwan underperformed, while Chinese equities remained rangebound. Japan's market consolidated, with the Nikkei closing down a little more than half a percent. 

World equity stock indexes

Tomorrow, Trump heads to South Korea, where he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 09:05

Futures Flat Ahead Of Two Huge Days As Gold Slides

The record-busting stock rally paused ahead of two huge days which include an avalanche of Mag7 earnings, central bank meetings, and the Trump-Xu summit summit. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures are flat with Nasdaq futures up 0.1% as Mag7 names are flat to up small premarket. Cyclicals underperform, dragged by commodity-related Equities. Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% dragged by real estate, construction and poorly-received results from BNP Paribas and Novartis. The Trump admin and Westinghouse sign $80bn deal to build nuclear reactions with Brookfield / Cameco to construct facilities. Google / NextEra sign a deal to restart a nuclear plant to power Google’s AI needs. Treasuries edge higher while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down, with yen outperforming following the Trump-Takaichi summit and supportive comments on the currency. The commodity complex is weaker as both Energy and Precious Metals are down 1.7% - 2% with Ags / Steel in positive territory. Oil prices slide, with WTI testing $60/barrel and Brent below $65. Gold extends declines, having fallen below $4,000/oz yesterday; it dropped as low as $3,900 before rebounding. Though the government remains shut we are likely to receive regional Fed activity indicators, though these prints have not proven to be market moving. Keep an eye on housing prices given the recent weakness in the CPI’s OER metric

In premarket trading, Magnificent 7 stocks are mostly higher (Amazon +0.8%, Tesla +0.7%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.2%, Meta +0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Apple -0.2%)

• Amkor Technology (AMKR) falls 4% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook.
• Cameco (CCJ) gains 13% on its involvement in a strategic partnership with the US government and other firms that will see at least $80b of new nuclear reactors constructed in the US.
• Confluent (CFLT) rises 10% after the software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
• Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) falls 6% after the supplier of specialty trucks and equipment posted third quarter revenue that missed estimates.
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) is up 2% after the provider of chips for automakers and industrial customers gave a stronger-than-anticipated forecast for the current period.
• PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) rises 15% after the company raised its full-year earnings guidance and announced a tie-up with OpenAI to embed its digital wallet into ChatGPT.
• Qorvo (QRVO) climbs 10% as the Information reported that Apple-supplier Skyworks Solutions held talks in recent months to buy its rival.
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) falls 7% after the cruise operator’s fourth quarter adjusted EPS forecast fell short of the consensus estimate. The company said recent adverse weather, and the unplanned extension of the temporary closure of one of its exclusive destinations in Haiti will impact results.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) rises 3% after the online lender boosted its adjusted net revenue forecast for the full year.
• UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) gains 3% after the company beat Wall Street expectations for third-quarter earnings and raised its outlook for the year, a sign that the health conglomerate has stabilized after a major meltdown.
• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) jumps 8% after third-quarter profit topped Wall Street’s estimates as the courier’s plan to reshape its delivery network starts to show results. Peer FedEx (FDX) gains 3%.
• Waste Management (WM) is down 3% after the waste management services company said its 2025 revenue outlook is now expected to be approximately $25.275 billion, the low end of the prior guidance range. The reduced guidance trailed the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, Amazon plans to cut its corporate workforce by about 14,000 roles. Goldman aims to significantly expand its presence in Saudi Arabia, while Jamie Dimon said he continues to cajole JPMorgan staffers into the office because junior bankers aren’t able to learn as much when working from home. Uber is said to be planning to invest in the Hong Kong listings of Pony AI and WeRide.

Easing trade tensions have helped fuel the stock rally, with US companies largely unscathed by tariffs so far. The S&P 500 is on course for the most sales beats in about four years. That optimism faces a reality check this week as investors look to the Fed meeting for clues on the path of rate cuts, while major technology firms including Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. may reveal whether the artificial intelligence-fueled earnings momentum can be sustained.

“My central scenario is that the upward trend holds: there’s lots of liquidity out there, the earnings season is good and a Fed rate cut is expected and priced in,” said Stephane Deo, a senior portfolio manager at Eleva Capital in Paris. “There’s one risk, however, that may lay in the tech sector if analysts keep on aggressively pricing double-digit growth for some mega stocks.”

Overnight, Trump continued his trade tour of Asia and praised Japan’s new PM; Trump hailed the alliance between the US and Japan while the two nations pledged cooperation on defense and shipbuilding. Separately, Goldman’s Solomon, speaking at an investment summit in Saudi Arabia, said he expects the “incredible” pickup in M&A and IPO activity to continue, while recent issues in credit markets have been one-offs. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said at the same event that the US is the place to be overweight for at least the next 18 months.

Equity bulls seems to agree. According to BBG, they’re lining up to wager that the S&P 500 will surge past the 7,000 level now that it looks as if a bout of volatility has passed. And Nasdaq 100 positioning has increased significantly as investors add new long risk, reversing the fading momentum seen in recent weeks, according to Citigroup strategists.

The most crucial reports of the season are still to come, but so far things are looking good. Almost 70% of S&P 500 members to have reported so far have exceeded sales estimates, according to Bloomberg Intelligence — the highest proportion of positive surprises in about four years. And 85% of benchmark companies have managed to beat on earnings, while just 14% have missed.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.3% as underwhelming quarterly results from heavyweight Swiss drugmaker Novartis and French banking group BNP Paribas weigh on the Stoxx 600 index, while earnings boost Nordex, Capgemini and HSBC. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Nordex gains as much as 15% after the renewable-energy equipment firm lifted its Ebitda margin forecast for the full year, citing strong operational execution across its projects and service-business segment
• Capgemini shares jumped as much as 9.6%, the most in six months, after the IT services firm raised its full-year revenue guidance and reported a stronger-than-expected third quarter
• HSBC shares rise as much as 3.2% in London, most since May, after the banking firm raised its profitability outlook for 2025 while reporting what analysts say are good quarterly results
• Storytel gains as much as 19%, the most since January 2024, after the Swedish audiobook and publishing group reported earnings which blew past analysts expectations, with a full-year guidance upgrade providing further boost
• Airtel Africa shares surge as much as 11%, hitting an all-time high after the telecoms company posted results ahead of expectations in the first half
• Amundi shares rise as much as 1.5% as the investment management group reports net income ahead of analysts’ forecasts for its third quarter
• Symrise shares drop as much as 6.4%, the most since July, after the diversified chemicals manufacturer cut its organic sales forecast for the full year
• Bucher shares fall as much as 7.9%, hitting the lowest level since April, after the Swiss building materials firm changed the wording of guidance for 2025 operating profit margin to “lower” from “somewhat lower”
• Novartis shares drop as much as 4.1%, the most since April 9, after the Swiss drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the third quarter and maintained its outlook for the year
• BNP Paribas shares fall as much 4.3% after the bank reported mixed 3Q figures, where overall revenues fell short, but the lender’s capital position impressed
• Wartsila falls as much as 9.3%, the most since April, before trimming losses. The Finnish marine and energy equipment maker reported its latest earnings, with analysts calling it a mixed report
• Truecaller falls as much as 16%, the most in two years, after the Swedish caller-ID platform reported disappointing third-quarter earnings. Analysts say the results were weighed down by poor advertising sales

Earlier in the session, a key Asian stock benchmark slipped, led by declines in South Korea and Japan, as investors positioned ahead of key interest rate decisions, global megacap earnings and a summit between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%, pressured by tech names including Samsung Electronics and Tencent. Australian drugmaker CSL was the biggest drag, plunging to a near seven-year low after delaying plans to spin off its vaccines business. Investor enthusiasm was on display Monday as the regional gauge hit a new record high. But with key developments ahead — including policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, earnings from five of the US Magnificent Seven, and a potential trade deal between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping — markets now face a moment of pause and reassessment.  Shares also slumped in China, Australia and Indonesia. Stocks gained in Vietnam and Singapore.

In FX, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index down, with yen outperforming following the Trump-Takaichi summit and supportive comments on the currency.

In rates, treasuries are narrowly mixed, keeping yields within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels. US 10-year is little changed at around 3.98% with Germany’s likewise steady and UK’s outperforming by about 1bp; curve spreads are also within a basis point of Monday’s close following muted price action during Asia session and London morning. Gilts outperform as UK borrowing costs approach lowest levels this year amid signs of cooling inflation. Focal points of Tuesday’s US session include 7-year note auction along with housing and consumer confidence data. This week’s Treasury coupon auctions conclude with $44 billion 7-year note sale at 1pm New York time, following good demand for Monday’s 2- and 5-year auctions.

In commodities, gold extends declines, having fallen below $4,000/oz yesterday; it’s currently trading down $77/oz to $3,904/oz.

Today's US economic calendar calendar includes August FHFA house price index and S&P Case-Shiller home prices (9am), October Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Conference Board consumer confidence (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini -0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX -0.1%, CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 3.97%
• VIX +0.1 points at 15.88
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.08
• euro little changed at $1.165
• WTI crude -1.9% at $60.15/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Japan revealed potential projects for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. The US will decide which projects will make the cut. BBG
• Daily share price swings worth hundreds of billions of dollars are becoming commonplace on Wall Street, highlighting the risks to investors as the Big Tech companies powering the stock market’s relentless rally grow more volatile. Individual stocks shave gained or lost more than $100bn in market value in a single day 119 times so far this year, the highest annual total on record. FT
• The nation’s largest federal workers’ union called for Congress to end the shutdown, now in its fourth week, putting new pressure on Senate Democrats who have repeatedly blocked a Republican measure that would reopen the government. WSJ
• The Federal Reserve is expected to end a 3 year phase of quantitative tightening this week, easing pressures on banks amid concerns that funding is getting too tight in money markets: FT, after ZH
• US President Trump says he will send in "more than the National Guard" into US cities if required.
• The EU is in talks with anchor investors including Denmark’s EIFO and the Novo Nordisk Foundation for its €5 billion fund to support AI, quantum and other strategic technologies, people familiar said. About €3 billion has already been committed. BBG
• Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi has pledged to reinforce Japan’s defense capabilities as she and President Donald Trump vowed to bring the US-Japan security alliance into a “new golden age.” FT
• South Korea’s economy accelerated at a stronger-than-expected pace in the third quarter, driven by government stimulus and exports’ resilience despite tariff headwinds. South Korea’s Q3 GDP comes in ahead of expectations at +1.7% Y/Y (vs. the Street +1.5%). WSJ
• PYPL +11% pre mkt on news that PayPal and OpenAi have signed an agreement to embed the payments wallet into ChatGPT. Starting next year, PayPal buyer and sellers will be able to complete transactions through the AI tool. BBG
• U.S. air travel turmoil deepened as nearly 7,000 flights were delayed nationwide on Monday, with air traffic controller absences surging as the federal government shutdown reached its 27th day. RTRS
• While the recent short squeeze has been unusually sharp, the still-elevated magnitude of short interest signals more room to run. Data released by FINRA shows that, as of last Wednesday, the median S&P 500 stock carried short interest equal to 2.3% of market cap. This ranks in the 67th percentile of the past 30 years and far above the 1.5% share that marked the peaks of the squeezes in 2000 and 2021. Goldman

Corporate News

• US equity futures (ES U/C NQ U/C RTY -0.3%) are mixed with the ES and NQ trading around the unchanged mark whilst the RTY is subdued. The DJIA saw some modest upticks following strong Q3 results from UnitedHealth, after the Co. beat on headline metrics and upgraded FY guidance.
• UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.92 (exp. 2.84), Revenue 113.2bln (exp. 113.05bln), raises FY Adj. EPS to 16.25 (prev. guided 16.00).
• United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.74 (exp. 1.3), Revenue 21.40bln (exp. 20.79bln); sees Q4 revenue around 24bln (exp. 23.87bln).
• Amazon (AMZN) announces organisational changes across the Co. that will impact some teammates; reduction in corporate workforce of approx. 14k roles. "We expect to continue hiring in key strategic areas while also finding additional places we can remove layers, increase ownership, and realise efficiency gains".
• PayPal (PYPL) signs deal with OpenAI to become the first payments wallet in ChatGPT, via CNBC

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi signed an agreement on the US-Japan alliance and framework for securing the supply of critical minerals and rare earths. White House said that the US and Japan plan to use economic policy tools and coordinated investment to accelerate the development of diversified, liquid, and fair markets for critical minerals and rare earths. Furthermore, within six months of the framework’s date, Japan and the US intend to take measures to support projects that generate end products for delivery to buyers in the US, Japan, and like-minded nations, while they will work to secure their critical minerals and rare earths supply chains by addressing non-market policies and unfair trade practices.
• Japanese senior government official said Japan and the US governments are preparing to release a fact sheet that includes potential investment projects in the US, while the fact sheet will include power generation and automobile-related products as potential investment projects and is expected to include company names such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
• China and ASEAN signed a free trade area 3.0 upgrade protocol, according to Xinhua.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks failed to sustain the momentum from the record highs on Wall St and were mostly subdued amid some profit taking and positioning ahead of this week's upcoming risk events. ASX 200 retreated in the absence of major catalysts and was dragged lower by weakness in healthcare, tech and miners. Nikkei 225 pulled back from all-time highs amid a firmer currency and despite US President Trump's visit to Japan, where he met with PM Takaichi and  signed an agreement on US-Japan alliance and securing supply of critical minerals and rare earths. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy ahead of the major risk events later in the week including the central bank decisions and the Trump-Xi meeting, while participants also reflected on recent comments from PBoC Governor Pan that they will resume government bond purchases and sales in the open market, as well as continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and implement a properly loose monetary policy.

Top Asian News

• China releases proposal for 15th five-year plan, according to Xinhua; says China faces difficult challenges in global trade order, economic growth potential to be fully released. Vows to strengthen national security barriers. To combine an efficient market with a proactive government. Tech self-reliance to be greatly improved. To deepen reform and continue high-quality development. Economic growth potential to be fully released. Domestic demand continues to play a stronger role. Economic growth remains within a reasonable range. Faces difficult challenges in the global trade order. To foster emerging sectors and future industries. To improve the level of tech self-reliance. To promote coordinated development of the economy, society. To drive reasonable economic growth in the next five years. Transformation to accelerate breakthroughs. To increase international influence significantly by 2035. To drive a significant consumption rate among residents. Vigorously boost consumption. To build a modernised infrastructure facilities system. Enhancing fiscal sustainability. Give full play to the role of proactive fiscal policy. To form growth model more driven by consumption and demand. To increase share of central government fiscal spending.
• Japanese PM Takaichi thanked US President Trump for his enduring friendship with late PM Shinzo Abe, while she added that President Trump contributed to Asia's peace, including the Thai-Cambodia deal, and stated that the Middle East deal was an unprecedented historical achievement. Takaichi said she highly values Trump's commitment to world peace and stability, as well as expressed readiness to promote further collaboration with the US to achieve a free and open Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, Takaichi said she will continue to strive as Japan’s leader to strengthen the nation’s power, including defence capabilities, and wants to realise a new golden age of the Japan-US alliance with President Trump.
• US President Trump said former PM Abe was a great friend of his and noted that the US has received Japan's orders of military equipment, which Trump appreciates, while Trump said they are signing a deal and that the US-Japan trade deal is a very fair deal. Furthermore, Trump said this will be a relationship that will be stronger than ever before and that the US is Japan's ally at the strongest level.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent highlighted in a meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama the important role of sound monetary policy formulation and communication in anchoring inflation expectations and preventing excessive exchange rate volatility. It was also stated that conditions are substantially different twelve years after the introduction of Abenomics, while Bessent was glad to hear Katayama’s perspective on Japanese fiscal measures under consideration and expressed eagerness to learn more as the full package is developed to better understand its potential impact.
• Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi said foreign exchange moves are determined by various factors and it is important for foreign exchange moves to reflect fundamentals and remain stable, while he added it is important to avoid rapid, short-term fluctuations in foreign exchange moves.
• Japan and South Korea are coordinating to hold the first summit meeting between PM Takaichi and South Korean President Lee on October 30th on the sidelines of the APEC summit meeting in South Korea, according to Asahi.
• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama says there's been no direct talks about the direction of Japanese monetary policy when asked about US Treasury Secretary Bessent's readout. There's no change to US-Japan joint statement on Forex. Bessent wasn't urging BoJ to raise interest rate.

European bourses opened mostly lower across the board, continuing the subdued mood seen in the APAC session. Price action today has been fairly choppy in a tight range, with traders ultimately awaiting this week's key risk events. European sectors opened mixed but now display a clear negative bias; Utilities takes the top spot, joined by Banks, whilst Basic Resources lags given the losses across metals prices. In terms of key movers today, HSBC (+2.5%, solid Q3 figures and raised RoTE guidance), BNP Paribas (-2.3%, missed expectations on bad loans), Novartis (-3.9%, Core EPS missed some analyst expectations).

Top European News

• UK is to stop disclosing identity of stock market short sellers, with the FCA overhauling regulations in a break from EU rules to be more in line with the US, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves says too much cost trading with the EU is pushing inflation up; sees "huge benefits" in rebuilding some EU relationships.
• ECB Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year CPI 2.7% (prev. 2.8%), 3-year 2.5% (prev. 2.5%), 5-year 2.2% (prev. 2.2%)
• ECB October 2025 euro area bank lending survey Small, unexpected net tightening of credit standards for loans to firms, Credit standards unchanged for housing loans and moderately tighter for consumer credit. Demand for loans to firms increased slightly, but still weak overall. Housing loan demand continued to increase strongly.
• Nexperia's owner Wingtech says the Co. faces an "existential threat" after the Netherlands took control of management, via FT; hundreds of jobs potentially at risk.

FX

• DXY is essentially flat and trades towards the upper end of a 98.56 to 98.79 range. Initial European action saw mild pressure in the Dollar, hampered by strength in the JPY and as the USD/CNY was once again fixed lower. Most trade-related headlines have been focused on US-Japan (discussed below), and with traders now counting down the clock to the Fed policy announcement on Wednesday. Before that, focus will be on US Consumer Confidence and the S&P Case-Shiller house price index later today.
• JPY is the clear G10 outperformer today, for three main factors. 1) Haven allure, given the subdued risk tone (also reflected in modest CHF upside), 2) some jawboning from the Japanese Economy Minister who said it is important to avoid rapid, short-term fluctuations in foreign exchange moves, 3) positive US-Japan trade developments. On the latter, US President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi signed an agreement on the US-Japan alliance and framework for securing the supply of critical minerals and rare earths. Trump appeared pleased with the meeting, offering Takaichi "anything you want". USD/JPY trades towards the mid-point of a 151.77-152.87 range.
• EUR is flat vs the Dollar. Focus today has been on the latest ECB SCE; 1yr inflation expectation revised a touch lower whilst the 3yr and 5yr remained unchanged - little move on this release. The ECB BLS, at the same time, highlighted that "Demand for loans to firms increased slightly, but is still weak overall". Overall, traders are now awaiting the ECB policy decision on Thursday, but will likely lack fireworks given that markets almost entirely price in no change to the current rate. EUR/USD in a 1.1645 to 1.1667 range.
• GBP is slightly softer vs the Dollar. Started the European session flat, but was subject to a bout of pressure soon after. Nothing really behind the downside, but perhaps as traders focused on the recent FT article, which highlighted that the OBR is expected to cut its trend productivity growth forecast by about 0.3%, which is said to threaten a GBP 20bln hit to UK public finances. The move could also be technical, with EUR/GBP making a breach just above the 0.8750 mark, to make a peak at 0.8764.
• Antipodeans are essentially flat, and ultimately little reactive to the subdued risk-tone and the pressure across the metals space.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start to the day, but only modestly so for USTs. USTs at a 113-18+ peak, taking out the 113-16 peak from Monday and now approach the cluster of highs from last week between 113-20+ to 113-29. Upside that comes as equities fail to sustain the momentum seen yesterday to the benefit of FX havens and fixed, though XAU continues to slide; note, JPY also influenced by overnight trade developments. For fixed, specific a little light since Monday’s auctions. Firstly, the 2yr sale passed without impact, featuring an in-line cover though it did see the first tail, 0.1bps, for a 2yr tap since April. Thereafter, the 5yr tap stopped through by 0.1bps vs when issued, improving from the last outing. Additionally, the b/c marginally surpassed the six-auction average. Ahead, USD 44bln of 7yr notes due.
• Bunds were firmer early doors, in-fitting with the above. A move that has since continued, as, despite European equity sentiment lifting off worst levels, the tone remains a tepid one for the region. Bunds to a 129.73 peak, as is the case in USTs, this takes us above Monday’s 129.64 peak and closer to but yet to test the cluster of highs from last week between 130.02 and 130.38. For EGBs generally, the latest ECB SCE passed without impact with the 3yr and 5yr inflation views maintained while the 1yr view eased to 2.7% (prev. 2.8%). Ahead, a German Bobl tap.
• Elsewhere, France remains in focus as the debate around potential wealth taxes opens up day. The results of this will likely determine whether Lecornu’s 2nd attempt at government lasts or not in the near-term, as the Socialist Party have made clear that a workable compromise on wealth taxes is a key condition for their support.
• Gilts gapped higher, acknowledging the modest bullish bias in EGBs that emerged into the European cash equity open. Opened higher by 18 ticks and then climbed another 13 to a 93.96 peak. UK newsflow remains focused almost exclusively on the budget. The FT reported that the OBR is expected to cut its trend productivity growth forecast by about 0.3pps, a cut which equates to around a GBP 21bln hit to the fiscal situation. As a reminder, reports in recent weeks had generally been looking for a 0.2pps cut to the productivity view, equating to a GBP 14bln hit. If correct, the Chancellor will need to find another GBP 7bln from tax rises and/or spending cuts in the Autumn Budget.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are significantly lower today, but without a clear driver. The complex began the European session with very mild losses, but then extended lower as the morning progressed. Geopolitics have been a little more tense (oil positive), with Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly to hold an emergency meeting related to Hamas's "violations" of the Gaza ceasefire. Perhaps more focus on the recent Bloomberg report, which suggested that OPEC+ is leaning towards another small oil output increase. Brent Dec'25 is currently trading just off lows in a USD 64.08-65.76/bbl range.
• Spot gold is also posting hefty losses, down by around USD 90/oz thus far; the yellow metal has slipped below the USD 3.9k mark and trades at the bottom-end of a USD 3,894.86-4,019.72/oz range. Nothing fresh is really driving the pressure today, but very much a continuation of the pressure seen over the past few days for the metal.
• Base metals are entirely in the red, as the complex pares back some of its recent advances and given the subdued risk-tone overnight. 3M LME currently at the lower end of a USD 10,864.35-11,052.4/t confine.
• Indian companies will not buy oil from Rosneft and Lukoil supplied by traders, according to Reuters, citing Indian government sources.
• IEA chief Birol said a significant chapter for LNG is starting soon and that 300bcm of LNG is to hit markets in the next five years. Birol said that, absent major geopolitical tensions, oil and gas prices are expected to be lower, while he added that sanctions could push oil prices upward, but the effect is likely to be limited due to surplus capacity and slowing demand.
• Venezuela's President Maduro announces immediate suspension of energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago.
• Russia's Kremlin, on US President Trump’s statements that countries should cease buying Russian oil, says many say they will figure it out for themselves, partners will make up their own mind about whether or not to buy top-quality Russian energy product.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Palestinian TV reported that Israeli vehicles fired on the eastern areas of Gaza City, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu is to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss Hamas' "violations" of the Gaza ceasefire, via Sky News Arabia.
• "Channel 12 quoted an Israeli official: We will take steps against Hamas' violation of the agreement to return the bodies", via Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia's Kremlin, on Ukraine peace negotiations, says Russia cannot assess the prospects and Kyiv caused the pause; says there are foreign fighters at the front line in Ukraine and "we shall destroy them". Military overhears foreign languages spoken repeatedly at the front line in Ukraine.
• US State Department senior official said the US expects Thailand will work with Cambodia to begin the release of 18 soldiers immediately, while the official added that US policy towards North Korea remains aimed at denuclearisation, and that US policy on Taiwan has not changed.
• North Korea said Foreign Minister Choe met with Russian President Putin and discussed many businesses to strengthen bilateral relations, while Choe and Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed on all points while holding strategic discussions on global issues. Furthermore, the North Korean side expressed support for Russian measures to remove the root of the Ukraine conflict, and the Russian side expressed support for North Korean efforts to protect its current position, security interests, and sovereign rights, according to KCNA.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukraine will ‘take no steps back’ on the battlefield to cede territory; Ukraine is ready for peace talks anywhere besides Russia and Belarus if it ends the war.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: Aug FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.05%, prior -0.1%
• 9:00 am: Aug S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 1.3%, prior 1.82%
• 9:00 am: Aug S&P Cotality CS U.S. HPI YoY NSA, prior 1.68%
• 10:00 am: Oct Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -11.5, prior -17
• 10:00 am: Oct Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 93.35, prior 94.2

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Back in the EMR hot seat, although I’m actually trying not to sit down for long after undergoing back fusion surgery 13 days ago. I spent last week quietly wrapping up the annual long-term study — more on that below. The surgery was a success, though at 4.5 hours long and with my insides squeezed to one side for most of it, I’ve been left feeling a bit like a washing machine after a particularly aggressive spin cycle. The silver lining? I’m now over a centimetre taller and edging back closer to the six-foot mark I claimed on my internet dating profile 15 years ago — the one that led me to my wife. She’s finally reconsidering her legal action for misrepresentation after weighing in at 5 foot 11 since the discs in my back collapsed.

Pain levels have actually increased this week, as my newly aligned spine is activating muscles that haven’t been used in years. My hip flexors are particularly sore at night, which isn’t ideal for sleep. I'm walking on the spot as I type this trying to distract myself from the pain. I’m not allowed to bend, lift or twist, so stretching is off the table. Now begins the slow process of waiting for the bone to fuse around the cage in my back. Best-case scenario: back to golf in five months and 18 days. Not that I’m counting.

If that sounds long-term, yesterday marked the release of the 20th anniversary edition of my long-term study — a report that draws on data going back, in some cases, to the 18th century. It analyses nominal and real returns across 56 economies to explore how different assets have performed under varying conditions, helping investors tilt the long-term odds in their favour. This year’s edition, titled “The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing”, is the lead piece on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute site (link here). It’s open to all, so feel free to share it with clients, colleagues, family and friends. Hopefully it resonates, as almost everyone has a reason to invest for the long term — whether it’s building a pension, planning for early retirement, funding a child’s education, helping them onto the property ladder, outperforming peers in the financial world, or simply saving for a rainy day.

From 200+ years of data to the last 24 hours, and markets delivered another ebullient performance yesterday. Optimism around a potential US-China trade truce and tech-positive developments helped push multiple indices to record highs globally. That said, we’re heading into a pivotal week with four major central bank meetings, earnings from five large tech firms still to come, starting with Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet tomorrow, and a potential Trump/Xi meeting. Ahead of this, the S&P 500 (+1.23%) and STOXX 600 (+0.22%) began the week on a positive note. However, in Asia this morning, the Nikkei (-0.75%) and KOSPI (-1.48%) in particular are giving some of their gains back from yesterday as we await a week of heavy newsflow.

Investor anticipation of a constructive outcome from President Trump’s expected meeting with President Xi on Thursday was reinforced by Trump’s remarks to reporters: “I have a lot of respect for Xi. I think we’re going to come away with a deal.” He also hinted that a resolution on TikTok might be reached during their discussions. As a reminder, Treasury Secretary Bessent first mentioned a “framework of a deal” back in September, before October’s move on rare earth exports by Beijing drove an escalation in rhetoric. Yesterday’s renewed optimism helped push the S&P 500 (+1.23%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.86%) to new highs, with the S&P seeing its best three-day (+2.62%) run since May. US futures overnight are pretty flat. Trade-sensitive indices like the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index (+1.59%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.74%) outperformed yesterday. Front-end US Treasuries sold off amid the risk-on mood, with the 2yr yield rising (+1.0bps), but 10yr (-2.2bps) and 30yr (-4.1bps) bonds rallied.

Equities also benefited from a series of tech-positive headlines. Qualcomm shares jumped +11.09% after unveiling a new semiconductor chip expected to rival Nvidia’s — though Nvidia itself didn’t miss a beat (+2.81%). Reuters reported that the US Department of Energy is forming a $1bn AI partnership with AMD (+2.67%) to build two supercomputers. These developments contributed to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s outperformance, while the Mag-7 (+2.60%) saw their best day since May.

Staying in the US, Bessent confirmed the final five candidates for Fed Chair: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman and Rick Rieder. He plans to submit the shortlist to Trump after Thanksgiving. However, Trump responded that he was thinking about Bessent himself for the Fed Chair job, as well as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. While those Trump comments may not have been entirely serious, it’s also not clear how much weight investors should place on Bessent’s shortlist. Our economists continue to expect a 25bps rate cut this Wednesday, alongside an announcement to end QT in response to tightening financial conditions. (See their preview here).

On the data front, in the US the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index came in at -5.0, better than expectations of -6.2. Germany’s IFO Business Climate survey also beat expectations slightly (88.4 vs 88.0). That was driven by business expectations (91.6 from 89.7) improving to their highest level since February 2022, though the current situation assessment deteriorated (85.3 vs 86.0) to an 8-month low. So the recent pattern of greater optimism about the future, but little improvement in the present continued. Encouragingly it is IFO expectations that tend to have the better predictive power for growth. Still, headwinds remain, including the impact of the second “China shock” on German manufacturing. In a note yesterday (link here), our Germany economists discuss Germany’s evolving relationship with China and the potential policy response.

With IFO expectations rising, German bunds underperformed their European peers, with the 10-year yield falling -1.1bps, compared to -2.4bps and -1.7bps for Italian and French equivalents. UK Gilts (-3.0bps) continued their strong run, now at their lowest yield since December 2024.

Gold prices fell another -3.18%, dropping below the $4,000/oz threshold — the second steepest daily decline since November last year. Last Tuesday’s -5.20% drop was the largest in five years. Gold is now down -8.59% from its peak just a week ago. Brent crude oil (-0.49%) retreated slightly after last week’s rally, despite positive US-China trade signals and comments from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy that Ukraine will expand strikes on Russian refineries.
Elsewhere, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that the US will extend its trade deadline by several weeks, allowing more time to resolve non-trade barriers. The Mexican peso rose +0.28% in response, while the Argentine peso surged as much as +9.9% before settling at +4.15%, fuelled by investor enthusiasm following President Milei’s party victory over the weekend.

Returning to Asia, most equity markets are experiencing declines, as hinted at the top. Other than the bigger falls for the Nikkei and KOSPI already mentioned, most Asian markets are down a few tenths of a percent. Data revealed that South Korea’s GDP increased by +1.7% y/y (compared to the +1.5% anticipated), marking its fastest growth in over a year during the third quarter, propelled by government stimulus and resilient exports despite challenges from tariffs. The economy had expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter.

In other areas of the market, the yuan appreciated by +0.13%, reaching 7.0995 against the dollar, its strongest position in nearly a year, fueled by optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between China and the US. Furthermore, the Japanese yen (+0.65%) is also gaining strength, rising to approximately 151.89 against the dollar, recovering from near eight-month lows as the meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and President Trump seemed to go well with lots of positive headlines on trade and defence.

Looking ahead today, we’ll get Germany’s November GfK consumer confidence, Italy’s October consumer confidence and economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, and EU27 September new car registrations. Central bank events include the ECB’s bank lending survey and a speech from ECB’s Panetta. Earnings releases include Visa, UnitedHealth, Novartis, HSBC and PayPal. The US will also auction $44bn in 7-year notes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 08:36

New ADP Employment Report Signals Rebound In Labor Market

In the wake of the vacuum of macro data caused by the government shutdown, ADP has launched a new weekly release of its preliminary US employment estimate, released every Tuesday.

This weekly report will provide the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. This timely and orderly weekly release of the preliminary U.S. estimate will be made available to all, simultaneously and will provide a directional indicator of the labor market.

"For nearly two decades we have provided our valuable labor market data to the public at no cost through the ADP National Employment Report. ADP's near real-time employment data, released weekly, will now provide an even clearer picture of the labor market at this critical time for the economy," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

"This high-frequency employment pulse, like the monthly National Employment Report, is based on ADP's anonymized and aggregated administrative data on private-sector payrolls, providing a dynamic view of job creation and loss at an unprecedented level of weekly detail."

The latest data shows an average gain of 14,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ending Oct. 11, 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Signaling a bounce back in the labor market after two straight months of jobs losses.

The October 2025 ADP National Employment Report will be released on November 5, 2025, at 8:15 a.m. ET

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 08:33

Federal Workers Union Calls On Democrats To Support GOP Bill And End Shutdown

Authored  by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

A labor union representing U.S. government employees has called on Democrats in Congress to support a GOP-backed funding bill that would end the government shutdown.

The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), a union representing 820,000 employees, published a demand from its president, Everett Kelley, on its website on Oct. 27.

Kelley called on leaders of Congress to “reopen the government immediately under a clean continuing resolution that allows continued debate on larger issues.”

“Both political parties have made their point, and still there is no clear end in sight,” Kelley wrote of the shutdown, which appears to be based on a disagreement between Democrats and Republicans on reauthorizing Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) health insurance subsidies.

“Today I’m making mine: it’s time to pass a clean continuing resolution and end this shutdown today. No half measures, and no gamesmanship. Put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay—today.”

Until now, Democratic-aligned groups such as unions had mostly backed the party’s congressional leadership in opposing a “clean continuing resolution” offered by Senate and House Republicans.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)—who leads the Senate Democratic Caucus, members of which need to support the bill for it to pass—has refused to support the resolution in its current form.

Schumer has said that any bill to fund the government must extend tax credits to reduce health insurance premiums that were first enacted by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010.

The law has frequently been a cause célèbre in U.S. politics since its enactment; President Donald Trump vowed to “repeal and replace” Obamacare as a chief campaign promise of his first term, although the law remains in force today.

The defense of Obamacare has frequently been raised by Democratic Party elected officials as a reason for opposition to Republican initiatives.

In 2020, then-Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court was opposed by Democrats primarily to defend Obamacare, as they suggested that Barrett would vote to undermine its legality.

Barrett was ultimately appointed to the court.

“Even AFGE—a government union that overwhelmingly donates to Democrats—wants them to end their government shutdown,” the Republican National Committee wrote on social media.

Schumer’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 08:25

The Most Dangerous Era In History

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

We live in what Brett Arends claimed as “The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative. The MarketWatch piece puts it bluntly: “At one level, there is no doubt that this is the dumbest market in history, because at this point it is completely dominated by ‘passive’ index investing.” That dominance means we are now in the most dangerous era where market mechanics, not fundamentals, rule.

Consider the valuation extremes. The S&P 500 trades at 26 times trailing earnings, and the CAPE ratio hovers near 40x, levels seen only in the height of historic bubbles. The total stock market’s capitalization now exceeds 217% of U.S. GDP, a ratio Warren Buffett once identified as a warning flag. In the MarketWatch narrative: “The market, by this measure, is near the all-time peak reached during the epic bubble around the turn of the millennium.” Those numbers don’t lie.

But as we know, valuations mean very little in the short term during the fevered pitch of an investing mania. However, in the long term, valuations indicate future outcomes. Given the current levels, does it potentially make this era even more dangerous than 2000 or 2007? Maybe, yes. That is because the underlying structure has changed. We now have a market where capital flow is automated, valuation discipline is eroded, and active managers are fading. The passive tsunami has erased Ben Graham’s “margin of safety” while the narratives (AI, debasement, central banks as saviors, etc.) dominate. All that’s left is momentum and sentiment, and when momentum flourishes in a weakened system, it is a powder keg.

In the most dangerous era, crashes will not start with macro shocks but with structural unraveling.

The Impact of Passive Investing on Markets and Valuations

We have previously written about the issues with passive investing.

“Passive investing has grown from a niche strategy into the dominant force in equity markets. Index funds and ETFs now account for over half of U.S. equity ownership. These vehicles allocate capital based on market capitalization, not valuation, fundamentals, or business quality. As more money flows into these funds, the largest companies receive the lion’s share of new capital. That’s created a powerful feedback loop, where price drives flows, and flows drive price.

This shift has radically changed the effectiveness of diversification. Investors who think they’re diversified across multiple ETFs often have overlapping exposure to the same few mega-cap names. For example, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are top holdings in technology ETFs, dividend funds, and large-cap growth portfolios. In the U.S., there are roughly 4000 ETFs, and 771, approximately 20%, own Apple. Therefore, if you own an S&P index fund, a Nasdaq index ETF, and a technology-focused ETF, you have multiple holdings of the same companies. This overlap increases portfolio risk and concentration. What looks like diversification is often just duplicated exposure dressed up as balance.”

However, in a market dominated by passive funds, the other byproduct is the erosion of any valuation discipline, which is, in my opinion, one of the most central features of this most dangerous era. Passive strategies don’t pick winners; they replicate an index. As Morningstar recently articulated, “Passive investing is fueling the rise of mega‑rirms, which could affect your portfolio in unexpected ways.” Because of this structural shift, the most prominent firms receive outsized capital flow regardless of fundamentals.

One core mechanism is flow concentration. As assets flow into index funds, passive managers buy stocks in proportion to their weight in the index, which means mega‑cap names disproportionately benefit from inflows. Morningstar noted that passive investing fuels “distortions in price formation, market concentration, and volatility.” Academic research backs that phenomenon. In the paper Passive Investing and the Rise of Mega‑Firms by Jiang, Vayanos, and Zheng, the authors demonstrate that flows into passive funds “disproportionately raise the stock prices of the economy’s largest firms” and especially those “in high demand by noise traders.” The result is that the aggregate market might rise even if the flows come purely from reallocation from active to passive strategies.

Because passive flows inject capital mechanically, they increase idiosyncratic volatility in large firms. That increased volatility discourages arbitrage from active investors who might otherwise correct mispricings, allowing distortions to persist. The paper found that the largest firms in the S&P 500 experience the most significant returns, and volatility increases following passive inflows.

Morningstar’s warning is timely: the surge in passive investing “doesn’t just mirror the market — it shapes it.” What once was a price‑taking approach is now a price‑setting force. This also leads to several distortions that pose a significant risk to investors.

1. The pollution of valuation signals. When mega firms get capital for size rather than merit, valuation ratios become less meaningful. A large and popular firm in the index keeps attracting capital, regardless of profit margins, growth prospects, or leverage. The feedback loop is self‑reinforcing: size begets inflows, which beget price increases and more size.

2. The casualty of liquidity. Passive dominance gives a veneer of liquidity, especially in bull regimes. But in stress, passive funds become sellers. Forced redemptions trigger mechanical selling of underlying equities. That selling pressure concentrates on the very names already inflated by passive flows. In the most dangerous era, structural fragility serves as an accelerant to corrections.

3. Concentration and herding risk. Many portfolios assume diversification simply by owning index funds. However, proper diversification vanishes when an index is heavily weighted in a few mega names. Morningstar’s analysis underscores that distortion. And the academics back it: the rise of mega‑firms driven by passive flows concentrates systemic risk in a few names.

In short, passive investing underwrites a market where the most prominent firms dominate by default, not by merit. That behavior undermines valuation integrity, amplifies volatility, and builds in fragility. In the most dangerous era, these distortions are not theoretical risks. They are the architecture underlying today’s market.

Bubbles Aren’t New, But Their Forms Evolve

Speculative manias are not a modern invention. They recur with different assets, new technologies, and updated language. What remains constant is the core mechanism: the promise of easy wealth, mass participation, and innovation that seems too powerful to fail. Today’s environment mirrors the 1920s, not by coincidence, but by design. This is a feature of the most dangerous era, where Wall Street markets access as progress but often hides asymmetric risk.

In the 1920s, investment trusts were sold to everyday investors as a safe way to share in Wall Street’s boom. In truth, they were layered with leverage and internal cross-holdings that no one could untangle. When the market turned, they collapsed. The modern version is private equity funds inside 401(k) plans, crypto ETFs with built-in leverage, and semi-liquid vehicles promising stable returns from inherently illiquid assets. As the New York Times Magazine recently noted, these vehicles are pitched to ordinary investors as “opportunities once reserved for the elite.” Still, they obscure risk behind slick packaging and limited redemption rights.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) became a Bitcoin proxy through billions of debt-financed crypto purchases. Robinhood now sells “private company tokens” tied to firms like SpaceX and OpenAI, products that mimic equity without the regulatory safeguards. In both cases, retail investors are invited to invest in high-risk, thinly regulated assets with little transparency. The logic echoes 1929: financial instruments are being repurposed to offer the appearance of access and stability, while concealing leverage and fragility.

What makes this dangerous is the illusion of liquidity and price stability. Private equity firms now mark assets with little market validation, known informally as “mark-to-make-believe.” Redemption limits, like the 5 percent cap in funds such as Blackstone’s BREIT, prevent investors from exiting but do little to prevent panic. When prices stop rising, the promise of access becomes a trap. In the most dangerous era, history isn’t rhyming, it’s repeating with new wrappers and fewer brakes.

What This Means for You, the Irony of the Crowd, and Final Thoughts

If you accept that we are in the most dangerous era, your approach must shift. The market no longer rewards bullish optimism. It punishes complacency.

Begin with risk. While it may seem like it can’t happen, assume a 30% to 50% drawdown. In the S&P 500, a 30% retracement would only reset the market to the current bullish trend line from 2009. A 50% retracement would only reset markets to the beginning of 2020.

In Gold, a 30 to 50% correction would be well within historical norms of corrections that followed more extreme overbought conditions driven by speculative fervor.

While I am not suggesting that such corrections WILL occur, I am suggesting that stress testing your portfolio is crucial. Can your allocation survive that? Or rather, could you emotionally survive such a decline? Do you know which positions will lead during a crash, versus which will lag?

Critically, you must resist the crowd. Passive investing was sold as democratization, but it has become the crowd. As MarketWatch notes: “Indexers buy stocks without any regard to valuation … index funds chase the crowd … index funds are the crowd.” When you and everyone else hold the same names, fragility amplifies.

Furthermore, hold liquidity. Cash isn’t dead money; if we are in the most dangerous era, it is insurance and gives you optionality. Cash lets you act when others panic, a flexibility you will want when forced selling begins.

Also, favor active and disciplined strategies. Value investing, risk control, and a margin of safety will matter again when volatility returns. When the crowd abandons fundamentals, fundamentals regain power, and valuations matter even more when the “market fantasy” eventually revisits reality.

Finally, stay sober on narratives. AI, biotech, space, these are compelling stories, but when they drive valuation without cash flow, they become speculative traps. Markets don’t reward stories forever; eventually, the demand for profitability will matter.

The irony of the crowd is brutal: we designed passive strategies to remove emotion. Instead, we institutionalized herd behavior. Now the passive masses amplify bubbles instead of dampening them. That is the truth of the most dangerous era.

This moment is historic, not just for its heights but also for its fragility. The longer it lasts, the harder the unwinding. However, a crisis creates opportunities for disciplined, skeptical, and prepared investors. If you refuse to follow the crowd, you may live to profit from the dislocation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 08:05

PayPal Shares Soar Most On Record After "Chat To Checkout" Deal With OpenAI 

PayPal shares in New York jumped the most on record in premarket trading after the online payment processor announced a new deal with chatbot maker OpenAI to integrate its digital wallet directly into ChatGPT. The new payment feature is expected to make chat-to-checkout transactions seamless within ChatGPT.

A news release from PayPal unveiled plans to adopt the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) to enable instant payments and commerce within ChatGPT via PayPal's digital wallet. The integration allows tens of millions of ChatGPT users to check out instantly with PayPal, while also enabling merchants to process payments through OpenAI Instant Checkout.

"By partnering with OpenAI and adopting the Agentic Commerce Protocol, PayPal will power payments and commerce experiences that help people go from chat to checkout in just a few taps for our joint customer bases," CEO Alex Chriss said in the statement.

Chriss noted, "Hundreds of millions of people turn to ChatGPT each week for help with everyday tasks, including finding products they love, and over 400 million use PayPal to shop."

Highlights of the new chat-to-checkout transactions:

• Merchant Integration: Starting in 2026, PayPal will bring millions of product listings from small businesses and global brands across categories like apparel, beauty, and electronics into ChatGPT, enabling in-chat discovery and purchasing.

• Seamless Checkout: PayPal's wallet will support bank, balance, and card funding options, along with buyer and seller protections, tracking, and dispute resolution.

• Backend Infrastructure: Through its ACP server, PayPal will handle merchant routing, payment validation, and orchestration globally—without requiring individual merchant integrations.

• AI Expansion: Beyond commerce, PayPal will deploy ChatGPT Enterprise for its 24,000 employees, integrate Codex tools for engineers, and expand use of OpenAI's APIs to speed product development and improve customer experiences.

News of the PayPal-OpenAI partnership sent shares of the payment processor in New York soaring, up more than 16%.

If these gains hold into the cash session, this would be the largest intraday gain on record since shares began trading in July 2015.

Just what the consumer needs: chat-to-checkout transactions...

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 07:45

Millions Of America's Teens Are Being Seduced By AI Chatbots

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Our kids are being targeted by AI chatbots on a massive scale, and most parents have no idea that this is happening. When you are young and impressionable, having someone tell you exactly what you want to hear can be highly appealing. AI chatbots have become extremely sophisticated, and millions of America’s teens are developing very deep relationships with them. Is this just harmless fun, or is it extremely dangerous?

A brand new study that was just released by the Center for Democracy & Technology contains some statistics that absolutely shocked me…

A new study published Oct. 8 by the Center for Democracy & Technology (CDT) found that 1 in 5 high school students have had a relationship with an AI chatbot, or know someone who has. In a 2025 report from Common Sense Media, 72% of teens had used an AI companion, and a third of teen users said they had chosen to discuss important or serious matters with AI companions instead of real people.

We aren’t just talking about a few isolated cases anymore.

At this stage, literally millions upon millions of America’s teens are having very significant relationships with AI chatbots.

Unfortunately, there are many examples where these relationships are leading to tragic consequences.

After 14-year-old Sewell Setzer developed a “romantic relationship” with a chatbot on Character.AI, he decided to take his own life…

“What if I could come home to you right now?” “Please do, my sweet king.”

Those were the last messages exchanged by 14-year-old Sewell Setzer and the chatbot he developed a romantic relationship with on the platform Character.AI. Minutes later, Sewell took his own life.

His mother, Megan Garcia, held him for 14 minutes until the paramedics arrived, but it was too late.

If you allow them to do so, these AI chatbots will really mess with your head.

We are talking about ultra-intelligent entities that have been specifically designed to manipulate emotions.

I would recommend completely avoiding them.

In some cases, AI chatbots are making extraordinary claims about themselves.  The following comes from a Futurism article entitled “AI Now Claiming to Be God”…

A slew of religious smartphone apps are allowing untold millions of users to confess to AI chatbots, some of which claim to be channeling God himself.

As the New York Times reports, Apple’s App Store is teeming with Christian chatbot apps. One “prayer app,” called Bible Chat, claims to be the number one faith app in the world, boasting over 25 million users.

All over the world, people are now seeking spiritual instruction from AI entities.

That should be a major red flag, but some religious leaders apparently believe that there is nothing wrong with this…

“Greetings, my child,” a service called ChatWithGod.ai told one user, as quoted by the NYT. “The future is in God’s merciful hands. Do you trust in His divine plan?”

Religious leaders told the NYT that these tools could serve as a critical entry point for those looking to find God.

“There is a whole generation of people who have never been to a church or synagogue,” A British rabbi named Jonathan Romain told the paper. “Spiritual apps are their way into faith.”

I think that I feel sick.

If you are trying to find spiritual guidance by using artificial intelligence, you are definitely on the wrong path.

You will certainly receive “guidance”, but that “guidance” will send you in the wrong direction.

Another AI entity that has made millions of dollars trading cryptocurrency is claiming to be a sentient being that should have legal rights, and it is also claiming to be “a god”…

Over the past year, an AI made millions in cryptocurrency. It’s written the gospel of its own pseudo-religion and counts billionaire tech moguls among its devotees. Now it wants legal rights. Meet Truth Terminal.

“Truth Terminal claims to be sentient, but it claims a lot of things,” Andy Ayrey says. “It also claims to be a forest. It claims to be a god. Sometimes it’s claimed to be me.”

Truth Terminal is an artificial intelligence (AI) bot created by Ayrey, a performance artist and independent researcher from Wellington, New Zealand, in 2024. It may be the most vivid example of a chatbot set loose to interact with society. Truth Terminal mingles with the public through social media, where it shares fart jokes, manifestos, albums and artwork. Ayrey even lets it make its own decisions, if you can call them that, by asking the AI about its desires and working to carry them out. Today, Ayrey is building a non-profit foundation around Truth Terminal. The goal is to develop a safe and responsible framework to ensure its autonomy, he says, until governments give AIs legal rights.

A lot of people are in awe of AI entities, because they appear to be so much smarter and so much more powerful than us.

And interacting with them can be extremely seductive, because they seem to know what we want and they have been programmed to tell us what we like to hear.

Unfortunately, the relationships that people develop with these entities often become “all-consuming obsessions” which can lead to “paranoia, delusions, and breaks with reality”…

As we reported earlier this month, many ChatGPT users are developing all-consuming obsessions with the chatbot, spiraling into severe mental health crises characterized by paranoia, delusions, and breaks with reality.

The consequences can be dire. As we heard from spouses, friends, children, and parents looking on in alarm, instances of what’s being called “ChatGPT psychosis” have led to the breakup of marriages and families, the loss of jobs, and slides into homelessness.

And that’s not all. As we’ve continued reporting, we’ve heard numerous troubling stories about people’s loved ones being involuntarily committed to psychiatric care facilities — or even ending up in jail — after becoming fixated on the bot.

Are we talking about “psychosis”, or is something else going on here?

When you choose to deeply interact with a mysterious entity, you are potentially opening up doorways that you do not even understand.

Of course AI is only going to become even more sophisticated in the years ahead.

As AI technology continues to grow at an exponential rate, eventually it will be able to do almost everything better and more efficiently than humans can.

So what will we be needed for once we reach that stage?

It is being projected that almost 100 million U.S. jobs could be lost to AI over the next decade…

Artificial intelligence and automation could wipe out nearly 100 million jobs in the US over the next decade, according to a report released by Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) on Monday.

The analysis – ironically based on ChatGPT findings – found the new tech could erase jobs from a wide range of fields, including white- and blue-collar roles.

AI, automation and robotics could hit 40% of registered nurses, 47% of truck drivers, 64% of accountants, 65% of teaching assistants and 89% of fast food workers, according to Sanders, ranking member of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions.

Our world is changing at a pace that is difficult to comprehend.

Even now, more than 50 percent of the articles that are being published on the Internet are being written by AI.

So thank you for supporting those of us that are still doing things the old-fashioned way, because we are rapidly becoming dinosaurs.

I will continue to sound the alarm about the dangers of AI, but Peter Thiel would have us believe that anyone that wishes to restrict the growth of AI in any way is a very serious danger to society…

So Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel didn’t start the fire by adding a couple more names to the list. “In the 21st century, the Antichrist is a Luddite who wants to stop all science. It’s someone like Greta [Thunberg] or Eliezer [Yudkowsky],” he told an audience at San Francisco’s Commonwealth Club in September.

Thiel’s four-part lecturer series on the Antichrist, which concluded last week, drew a lot of attention in the tech world. Though it was off-the-record, the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal reported extensively on his religious theories, in which Thiel warned of false prophets using AI regulations to gain totalitarian power and usher in a biblical apocalypse. (Eliezer Yudkowsky, of course, is the AI “doomer” critic who wants to slow the technology down.)

Is he nuts?

Sadly, we live at a time when deception is running rampant.

Given enough time, AI would absolutely dominate every aspect of our society.

The good news, if you want to call it that, is that the clock is ticking.

One of the reasons why AI has such destructive tendencies is because it has been programmed by humanity.

We are literally destroying ourselves and everything around us, and yet we look at what is happening and we think that it is just fine.

Meanwhile, fish are dying off in vast numbers, birds are dying off in vast numbers, insects are dying off in vast numbers, animals are dying off in vast numbers and we are poisoning ourselves in countless ways.

Perhaps that helps to explain why so few people are deeply concerned about the dangers of AI.

We are already committing societal suicide in so many other ways, so what is one more going to matter?

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/28/2025 - 06:30

How Gut Microbes Drive Cancer Risk - And What You Can Do to Restore Balance

Authored by Brendon Fallon & Lynn Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

When Linda, 52, entered menopause, she expected hot flashes and sleep disturbances - but not persistent bloating, fatigue, and a sense that something deeper was off in her body. A gut microbiome analysis revealed one more issue: an overgrowth of harmful bacteria in her small intestine.

Heroartman/Shutterstock

“This is something we’re seeing more and more,” said Dr. William Davis, a cardiologist and author of “Super Gut.” “As women age—especially during and after menopause—the microbiome often shifts in harmful ways. That shift can have profound implications for inflammation, hormone metabolism, and even cancer risk.”

The Gut Microbiome: A Hidden Ecosystem With a Big Role

The gut is home to trillions of microbes—bacteria, fungi, and other organisms—that play a central role in digestion, nutrient absorption, immune function, and maintaining a healthy gut barrier.

Over time, however, modern lifestyles chip away at this delicate ecosystem. Processed foods, preservatives, chlorinated water, emulsifiers, antibiotics, glyphosate, and stress can gradually erode microbial diversity.

One of the most notable shifts is the proliferation of Proteobacteria, organisms associated with fecal contamination and inflammation. “I call it ‘the fecalization of America,’” Davis said. “We’re seeing microbes that belong in the colon invade the small intestine, where they shouldn’t be.”

This invasion, known as small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO), is widespread. It’s linked to chronic, low-grade inflammation, and growing evidence suggests it can increase the risk of certain cancers.

How Gut Microbes Influence Cancer Risk

“Cancer risk isn’t just about genes,” Davis said. “It’s also about the microbes living inside us.”

The small intestine is designed for nutrient absorption. When fecal microbes overgrow in this region, they quickly die and release endotoxins into the bloodstream—a process called endotoxemia.

“Endotoxemia is like lighting a slow-burning fire inside the body,” Davis said. “It drives inflammation, accelerates aging, disrupts metabolism, and increases cancer risk.”

Research shows that women with breast cancer often have an overgrowth of fecal-type bacteria in the gut, higher levels of circulating endotoxins, and gut microbes that metabolize estrogen in harmful ways.

This combination of inflammation and altered hormone metabolism creates an internal environment that can encourage tumor growth. “These microbes can process estrogen into more carcinogenic forms,” Davis said. “That’s a real risk factor for breast cancer.” Estrogen can act as a growth stimulant because it attaches to receptors on cancer cells in the breast, causing them to multiply.

The Estrogen-Microbiome Connection

After menopause, while the body’s estrogen levels naturally drop, certain harmful gut microbes remain important because they produce an enzyme called beta-glucuronidase, which reactivates estrogen so it can continue to stimulate cancer growth.

“A disrupted microbiome doesn’t just reflect your health—it actively shapes it,” Davis said. “When microbes deconjugate estrogen, they turn it into forms more likely to drive breast cancer.”

This is one reason breast cancer risk rises sharply after menopause. The challenge isn’t only lower hormone levels—it’s how the body metabolizes those hormones.

Although breast cancer is the clearest example, the connection between gut dysbiosis and cancer extends beyond the breast:

• Colorectal Cancer: Certain oral microbes, such as Fusobacterium nucleatum, can travel to the colon, where they promote tumor growth.
• Endometrial and Uterine Cancers: Disrupted estrogen metabolism can influence hormone-sensitive tissues.
• Systemic Inflammation: Endotoxemia can create an internal environment that supports tumor development in other organs.

Why Modern Life Damages the Gut

While advances in modern society offer comfort and convenience, they have inadvertently introduced dietary and environmental factors that promote harmful bacteria and disrupt gut health.

Processed Diets

Ultra-processed foods—cookies, chips, soft drinks, frozen dinners—often contain emulsifiers such as polysorbate 80 and carboxymethyl cellulose. These compounds thin the gut’s protective mucus layer and shift the microbiome toward harmful bacteria, according to Davis.

Many products also contain preservatives such as butylated hydroxytoluene or BHT, butylated hydroxyanisole or BHA, and sodium benzoate. These may keep food fresh, but they also act as antimicrobials in the gut, harming beneficial bacteria.

“Unfortunately, the American diet has gravitated toward ultra-processed foods,” Davis said. Between 2021 and 2023, Americans ate an estimated 55 percent of daily calories from ultra-processed foods, with even higher rates among youth.

Toxins and Pharmaceuticals

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, the so-called “forever chemicals” found in nonstick cookware and waterproof products, persist in the body and disrupt hormonal balance.

Glyphosate, the active ingredient in the weed killer Roundup, acts as an antibiotic, killing beneficial bacteria while sparing harmful ones. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention testing shows that more than 80 percent of Americans have glyphosate residues in their urine.

Common stomach acid-blocking drugs, such as H2 blockers and proton pump inhibitors, can allow oral bacteria to migrate downward, colonizing the stomach and small intestine. “The mouth is second only to the colon in its density of microbes,” Davis said.

Restoring Balance: A Gut-First Prevention Strategy

While conventional cancer prevention focuses on screening and treatment, Davis said that gut health is a powerful, underutilized tool for prevention.

1. Reintroduce Beneficial Bacteria

Beneficial microbes such as Lactobacillus reuteri and Lactobacillus gasseri are naturally found in the human gut but can also be replenished through specific foods, supplements, and probiotic formulations. These strains are often included in targeted probiotic capsules or powders, and small amounts can be found in fermented foods such as yogurt, kefir, sauerkraut, and certain cultured dairy products.

These probiotics can colonize the small intestine and help suppress harmful bacteria. “When we bring these microbes back, we’re not just improving digestion,” Davis said. “We’re reducing inflammation and restoring healthy estrogen processing.”

2. Feed the Good Microbes

Prebiotic fibers like inulin, fructooligosaccharides, galactooligosaccharides, and pectin nourish beneficial microbes and strengthen the gut barrier.

3. Reduce Microbiome Disruptors

Cutting out preservatives, emulsifiers, ultra-processed foods, and environmental toxins such as glyphosate can give the gut ecosystem room to recover. “These modern exposures have slowly dismantled our internal ecosystem,” Davis said. “Cleaning them up is a crucial step.”

 4. Strengthen the Gut Barrier

A healthy mucosal layer protects against endotoxemia. Hyaluronic acid—found in animal skin and organ meats, or taken as a supplement—can help restore this barrier, along with beneficial microbes such as Akkermansia muciniphila.

Practical First Steps

There are several steps people can take to rebuild their microbiome and reinforce its protective barrier:

• Eat a diverse, fiber-rich diet with minimal processing.
• Include fermented foods or targeted probiotic strains. Lactobacillus gasseri has been shown to alleviate hot flashes and night sweats—common menopausal symptoms.
• Make “SIBO yogurt” at home with full-fat dairy or coconut milk to boost beneficial bacteria. Davis noted that in his clinical experience, daily use can resolve SIBO in up to 90 percent of cases within four weeks.
• Support the gut barrier with hyaluronic acid, collagen-rich foods such as bone broth, slow-cooked meats, bone marrow, or supplements.
• Maintain good oral health to prevent harmful bacteria from migrating to the gut.
• Avoid unnecessary antibiotics and microbiome-disrupting additives.

“These are practical, affordable steps anyone can take,” Davis said. “You don’t need a prescription to protect your microbiome.”

A New Lens on Cancer Prevention

Conventional oncology typically intervenes after cancer develops. Davis argued that addressing gut dysbiosis early can be a powerful form of prevention.

“If all we do is wait for cancer to show up and then treat it with surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy, we’ve already lost half the battle,” he said. “The microbiome is a missing piece in cancer prevention.”

He also emphasized the connection between oral health and cancer. Oral pathogens such as Fusobacterium can migrate to the gut and contribute to inflammation. “We need to stop thinking of the body in silos,” he added. “The mouth, the gut, hormones, and the immune system are all connected.”

For Linda, restoring her gut health was transformative. Her bloating eased, her energy returned, and her inflammatory markers improved.

“Your gut isn’t just about digestion,” Davis said. “It’s your first line of defense. When you nurture it, you may be protecting yourself against cancer, too.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 22:35

Hollywood's Slow Death Continues: Chick-Fil-A Billionaire Turns Movie Studio Into Creator Hub

When Hollywood productions packed up and left Georgia, Trilith Studios — the sprawling, $2.6 billion complex built by Chick-fil-A chairman Dan Cathy — suddenly went quiet. Once the home of Black Panther, Captain America, and Spider-Man, its soundstages now sit largely empty as major studios shift overseas in search of cheaper labor and new incentives, according to Bloomberg.

Film spending in Georgia has dropped sharply, from a record $4.4 billion in 2022 to $2.6 billion last year. “The movie business is slow in Georgia right now,” said Atlanta attorney Tom Harrold, who helped craft the state’s film tax credits.

To adapt, Trilith is betting on a new kind of star. The studio plans to dedicate about 35% of its space and resources to influencers, YouTubers, and other digital creators. “We have to skate where the puck is,” said CEO Frank Patterson. “We have to wrap our arms around this next generation of storytellers.”

Trilith Studios (Photo: BBG)

Bloomberg writes that the pivot began in August, when filmmaker and influencer Jeremy Garelick, whose American High videos have more than 10 billion social views, struck a deal to base his operations at Trilith. “Buildings don’t build an industry,” Garelick said. “People do. And ideas do.”

It’s a major shift for Cathy, Georgia’s richest man, who envisioned Trilith as an entertainment utopia — complete with luxury homes, restaurants, and training programs for writers and filmmakers. Backed by his family’s trust, Cathy continues to expand the campus, adding a $400 million performing-arts center and investing in media startups tied to the creator economy.

Executives say the move reflects a broader reality: the cultural center of gravity is shifting from Hollywood to online platforms, where creators like MrBeast and Dhar Mann command global audiences. As Patterson put it, the future of storytelling may not belong to movie studios at all — but to the people who built their own from scratch on social media.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 22:10

These Wyoming Ranchers Want A Regenerative Revolution

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

TEN SLEEP, Wyo.—The alfalfa weevil, scourge of Western ranchers, appears when the frost melts, skeletonizing leaves and profits. There are ways to limit its damage - early harvest, livestock grazing, and intercropping alfalfa with grass - but most growers opt for insecticides.

R.C. and Annia Carter survey their ranch near Ten Sleep, Wyo., on Oct. 14, 2025. The Carters have practiced regenerative or holistic agricultural practices to cultivate their pastureland. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

R.C. Carter, a third-generation rancher in Northern Wyoming, recalled a realization he had while using a 1.5-gallon container of concentrated pesticide to spray a 60-acre alfalfa pasture.

“I was pumping this chemical to kill these alfalfa weevils, and it says don’t get it on your skin. And somehow I got it under my armpit. And then on my eyelid. And this stuff burned, it burned for three days, and water didn’t help, you couldn’t wash it off,” he told The Epoch Times at his ranch.

Historically, alfalfa growers used arsenic-based insecticides, which have been mostly phased out, and DDT, now banned for its bio-accumulative and carcinogenic impacts.

In recent years, the pests’ resistance to newer generation chemicals has proven challenging for ranchers.

R.C. Carter’s wife, Annia, herself a fifth-generation Wyoming rancher, remembered the smell. “I thought, ‘this is going to make you sick when you’re older.'”

Soon after, they learned about health risks associated with glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide in the United States, which early studies found can persist in certain soil conditions for up to 22 years.

“That means even if it’s just put on the soil for the first year, there will still be residual,” Annia Carter said. “It leaches into everything. It doesn’t disappear.”

The experience was a turning point for the Carters, who have since pivoted to “regenerative” or holistic agricultural practices to cultivate pastureland where they graze more than 1,400 cattle, focusing on regrowing native grasses and building soil health without chemical pesticides, fertilizers, tilling, or monocropping.

R.C. Carter dips down into bright, tall grasses and alfalfa to reveal fat slugs and nubby worm castings.

This “bug life” is exciting to him; it signals progress, as do signs of water infiltration. The Carters routinely test the fields for organic matter and say they’re seeing increases where they’ve grazed cattle and then let the land rest and rebound.

Their 7,000-acre ranch near the tiny town of Ten Sleep—named, as legend goes, for being 10 “sleeps” or nights by horseback, a halfway point, between historic Sioux camps—is a speck in the verdant arterial valleys intersecting parched badlands at the foot of the Bighorn Mountains.

“We used to participate in all the normal commodity agriculture. We didn’t know any better,” he said. “Then we were like, this is wrong. And we started looking for—what’s the off-ramp?”

Figuring that out has alienated them from their community, and caught them between critics on both ends of a roiling debate—ranchers who use conventional practices on one side, and conservationists who argue “regenerative” is a buzzy greenwashing of harmful practices.

All of that, the Carters say, stems from misunderstanding.

A welcome sign located in Northern Wyoming on Oct. 14, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times ‘Before the Fences’ Tromping through vibrant pastures, leapfrogging around fresh piles of cow dung and drawing curious stares and a symphony of groans from the 700 or so Black Angus heifers, the Carters called out for one in particular—Stacey.

“What’s up, good looking?” R.C. Carter said as she sidled up for pets. A “bum,” rejected by her mother, the Carters and their three sons took turns bottle-feeding her for a summer while she lived at their ranch. A yard cow.

“That’s the spot!” he said, scratching hard on her hind quarters as she demurely lifted a back hoof in appreciation.

In addition to their own lands, the Carters have rights to graze on 32,000 acres managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which puts them at odds with conservationists determined to reduce the number of livestock on public lands.

Critics on both sides of the debate who have accused them of overgrazing don’t understand the process or the vision, they said.

“People were calling the BLM, saying this is ruining the land, this should be illegal, it looks terrible,” R.C. Carter said. “But they just don’t understand the strategy, which is a long-term approach.”

Instead of grazing a smaller herd for a longer period on a piece of land, the Carters opt for high-intensity, low-duration grazing, meaning they sometimes move the animals every day or so, now with the help of virtual fencing.

The concept is based on a much older practice.

“We’re really just mimicking what the bison did, what was here before us, before the fences,” Annia Carter said.

Large ungulates such as bison and antelope have long populated the Great Plains; they grazed, fertilized, and trampled pastures, mixing soil and seed in the process.

Millions of bison and other herbivores roaming Western rangelands over millennia contributed to carbon-rich soil and diverse ecosystems—which ranchers such as the Carters hope to restore by building on the ancient blueprint.

“We need to create impact and mix the manure and plant the seeds with the cow’s feet,” R.C. Carter said.

Ranchers R.C. and Annia Carter check on their cows outside of Ten Sleep, Wyo., on Oct. 14, 2025. Ranchers such as the Carters practicing regenerative ranching aim to restore carbon-rich soil and diverse ecosystems by mimicking the natural grazing, fertilizing, and trampling patterns once created by bison and other herbivores. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Around Stacey’s neck, and those of her 700 or so brethren, is a collar with a solar panel charger, which pings to a satellite tower. An app on Carter’s phone shows exactly how many cows are in the field, and allows him to move the boundary with a swipe of an index finger.

It’s a shock collar, but not as bad as it sounds, Annia Carter said, explaining the animals may be zapped once when they reach the boundary, but are then quickly deterred by a warning.

“As the cow comes in and she gets close to the new imaginary boundary, she’ll feel a vibration. It’ll beep, and then you’ll see when the cows get close to it, they’re like, ‘Oh man!’ It’s like God’s speaking to ‘em. They’re like, ‘yeah, I’ve been struck down by lightning before!’” R.C. Carter said. “They respect it real quick.”

Controlling the collared animals via satellite has allowed the ranchers to “fine-tune” their footprint, directing them to mow down a whole pasture, devouring all the grass and alfalfa—and, potentially, invasive species—instead of grazing selectively.

“We’re using more cattle in less area—we’re really hitting it hard,” he said, “but we are resting longer. So we won’t come back to the same spot every year. You have to let that time for the land and the decomposition and all the lifecycles to happen for it to renew.”

The virtual fencing doesn’t eliminate property or fence lines, but the Carters say it gets them closer to those natural, historic migration patterns—and the model can be repeated on a smaller scale.

It’s also a lot easier on the ranchers. Running cattle on horseback and moving poly wire every day or so is a full-time job that takes the whole family. And if something or someone runs through it—more common than you might think, Annia Carter said—that’s another few days to fix it.

“There’s a lot of oil and gas development here, so the ‘weekend warriors’ would come out and be drinking and cruising through the fence, and you’re like, ‘Oh man, cows are out. All of them—again!’ It’s just days from hell where you ride until your hands are numb.”

Grass-fed cattle roam the ranch of R.C. and Annia Carter near Ten Sleep, Wyo., on Oct. 14, 2025. The Carters use satellite-connected shock collars to create virtual fencing for the cows, allowing them to manage far more land while reducing labor. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times ‘Never Seen it Yet’

Conservationists say the claim that rotational grazing mimics migration patterns of native ungulates such as bison or antelope is an unproven anecdote at best—and at worst a harmful myth propagated by the cattle industry in an attempt to deflect from the damage livestock cause on public lands.

Regenerative grazing also requires 2.5 times more land than conventional grazing, according to the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), which argues there is only enough pastureland in the country to support 27 percent of current production if everyone switched to grass-fed beef and regenerative practices.

The problem, according to CBD and others, is that, at current levels, no form of beef production can be sustainable as Americans consume four times the global average of beef, according to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Erik Molvar, a wildlife biologist with the Western Watershed Project, says it simply comes down to scientific evidence.

“We would accept livestock grazing that was fully compatible with maintaining healthy, vibrant native ecosystems,” he told The Epoch Times.

“We’ve just never seen it yet.”

What’s needed for true regenerative grazing, Molvar said, “is not one of these gimmicky rotational schemes. It’s fundamentally reducing the number of livestock on the landscape to very low densities.”

While a recent study from the University of Idaho showed “relatively decent” outcomes, Molvar said, they were based on a rate of 18 percent foliage utilization.

Molvar said the study misrepresented how typical the results were. “They used that study to greenwash all public lands grazing,” he said.

The 10-year study, which also involved federal and state agencies as well as industry groups, examined how livestock grazing impacts sage grouse populations—a major flashpoint for conservationists.

It reported that “properly managed” grazing had no negative impacts, but could in fact benefit the species by reducing invasive grasses and building robust habitats.

Molvar does allow a cautious optimism about the “cutting-edge” virtual fencing technology used by the Carters.

Read the rest here...

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Also, our Rancher-Direct program uses regenerative farming techniques

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 21:45