Zero Hedge

A Nation Divided: The Chilling Embrace Of Political Violence In The US

A Nation Divided: The Chilling Embrace Of Political Violence In The US

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We are seeing increasing support for violent action across social media, including those lamenting that the recent presidential assassination was not successful. Conservative sites have been featuring teachers and others who were upset that the recent effort failed, including one who has now lost her job. The current violence and violent rhetoric have been building for years as our leaders fuel the rage in the nation.

One poll by the University of Virginia Center for Politics found that 52 percent of Biden supporters say Republicans are now a threat to American life, while 47 percent of Trump supporters say the same about Democrats. Among Biden supporters, 41 percent believed violence is justified “to stop [Republicans] from achieving their goals.” An almost identical percentage, 38 percent, of Trump supporters embraced violence to stop Democrats.

The support for violence has been growing. One prior poll shows a quarter of Americans supporting political violence.

An earlier survey from the Baker Center at Georgetown University also captured the growing divide among Americans on this 250th anniversary year of our revolution. The public’s distrust of the media, democracy, and each other appears to be growing as one out of seven Americans now embraces political violence.

That survey also showed the continuing drop in support for the media. As the mainstream media continues to show the same bias and advocacy journalism that has been alienating many citizens, roughly half (49%) of the public has little or no confidence in the press. Roughly the same percentage believes that the press favors the Democrats in its coverage. The percentage with great confidence in the media is now just 18%.

One of the most chilling aspects of the survey is the drop in faith in each other and in democracy. A shocking 57% believe that members of the opposite party are a somewhat or very serious “threat to the U.S. and its people.” Only 69% say that democracy is “preferable to any other kind of government.”

The drop in support of democracy is particularly concerning with almost 10% of the public saying that political violence is “sometimes” warranted and 5% say that individual acts of political violence are “often” or “very often” justified.

With the third attempted assassination of President Donald Trump, the survey suggests and a sizable number of Americans may share the views of Cole Allen that even murder is now a legitimate, even righteous, response to political opponents.

The New York Times recently ran a podcast in which radical Hasan Piker, the New York Times Opinion Culture Editor Nadja Spiegelman, and New Yorker writer Jia Tolentino captured the moral relativism that has taken hold of the left in American society. They cheerfully described the rationale for everything from “microlooting” to murder.

In response to the latest assassination attempt, Hakeem Jeffries declared, “I don’t give a damn” about criticism over his reckless rhetoric. That is hardly surprising for a politician whose favorite political prop appears to be a baseball bat, but it shows how politicians hope to ride this rage wave back into power. For Jeffries, rage may be the ticket to becoming the next Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The sad fact is that violent rhetoric works in an age of rage. Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger  called upon her supporters to “Let your rage fuel you.” She then refused to withdraw her support for the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, Jay Jones, who once expressed his desire to kill his political opponents and his children.

It is the combination of this rising moral relativism with the failing faith in our system that represents an existential threat to our Republic. We will be facing unprecedented economic and social challenges in this decade. We have a system that is designed for such changes.

In my book, Rage and the Republic” I discuss what I view as a crisis of faith in our values and ourselves.

When Michel Guillaume Jean de Crèvecoeur asked, “What then is the new American, this new man?” he was a Frenchman. Later, the author, cartographer, farmer, and diplomat would adopt a new name as John Hector St. John as well as a new identity: an American farmer. ,,, What was so striking about Letters from an American Farmer was the fourth word: American. At a time when most people still identified with their states as Georgians or Virginians, Crèvecoeur wrote as one of a new people known as Americans…

The greatest challenge of this century may be a rediscovery of that essential character that seemed so clear to these early writers when they first came upon our shores. Call it a crisis of faith or a confusion of the times, but many seem unsure whether we represent something beyond the totality of our wealth or power. We were much more than that when we first assumed the moniker of Americans. The question, is what we are now? Or, perhaps more pointedly, what do we aspire to be in this new century?

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:40

BOJ Keeps Rates On Hold In Rare 6-3 Vote Split As It Warns Of Looming Stagflation

BOJ Keeps Rates On Hold In Rare 6-3 Vote Split As It Warns Of Looming Stagflation

In the first G5 central bank announcement of the week, overnight the Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate in a 6-3 vote, despite forecasting a sharp rise in inflation as the war in the Middle East sends commodity prices higher and clouds the global economic outlook while testing Japan's given its exposure to rising energy prices.

While the decision on Tuesday to keep rates at about 0.75% was in line with market expectations, it came via a rare six-to-three vote split of the Monetary Policy Committee, the biggest divergence of opinion under governor Kazuo Ueda, and since the launch of the bank’s negative interest rate policy in 2016.

The three dissenters called for an immediate rate increase to 1%, reflecting fears that the BoJ is at risk of falling even further behind the curve by postponing rate increases as it seeks to “normalise” monetary policy at a time when Japan's inflation is dangerously overheating due to sharp wage increases in recent years. 

After the BOJ announcement, traders were convinced that rates will rise after the next meeting in June.

Speaking at a press conference later on Tuesday that was widely interpreted as hawkish, Ueda said the central bank would make appropriate decisions “so that we do not fall behind the curve”, yet even now he refused to outline a formal timeframe for the BoJ to decide whether conditions were right to raise rates.

“Given the high level of uncertainty around the conflict in the Middle East, the likelihood of achieving our forecasts has declined,” said Ueda. 

He added that the central bank “wants to spend a little more time scrutinizing how the Middle East conflict affects the economy and prices, and whether the risk to growth and inflation could change”.

While two of the three dissenters, Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata, are known hawks who have voted against the governor at previous meetings, analysts noted the addition of the more dovish Junko Nakagawa.

“Three dissenting votes is not a huge surprise, but Nakagawa being one of them is,” said JPMorgan senior Japan economist Benjamin Shatil. “The Board is sending a clear signal that it is ready for a June rate hike. Whether global conditions have settled sufficiently and tacit government approval is in place by then is another question.”

In the BoJ’s stagflationary outlook statement, the bank warned that Japan’s economic growth was likely to slow in the current fiscal year; at the same time it also significantly raised its inflation forecast over the same period.

The committee said core CPI was expected to reach 2.8% for the current fiscal year ending in March 2027, up sharply from its previous forecast of 1.9% issued just three months ago. 

“The rise in crude oil prices reflecting the impact of the situation in the Middle East is expected to push down corporate profits and households’ real income,” the BoJ said.

The statement added that the risks to economic activity were “skewed to the downside and risks to prices are skewed to the upside”. In other words, a classical staglationary setup. 

Japan is particularly vulnerable to energy shocks from the crisis in the Gulf. The country is heavily reliant on imported energy, and sources more than 90% of its crude from the Middle East.

The BoJ was the first of five major central banks making rate decisions this week, with the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Canada all expected to follow its lead and keep rates on hold as they asses the war-related risk of prolonged inflation.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, underlined the BoJ’s upward revision of inflation forecasts, including that inflation will average 2.2% in fiscal 2028.

“Barring a renewed escalation in the Middle East, the bank will probably lift its policy rate again at its next meeting in June,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Goldman's Akira Otani said that July is still his base-case scenario for the next rate hike. "However, uncertainty over the timing of the rate hike is high. While it could come earlier than July depending on inflationary pressures, we would expect it to be pushed back from July to H2 if the Japanese economy were to fall into a recession through factors like a deterioration in the terms of trade."

"Even if tensions in the Middle East were to stabilize, we believe a July rate hike is more likely than a June one. Uncertainty over crude oil production and transportation in the Middle East will remain high for the time being and the impact remains uncertain even in a de-escalation scenario. Under such circumstances, and with no signs of groundwork being laid with the government for a rate hike, data and information showing the Japanese economy is unlikely to suffer a significant negative impact and is likely to achieve moderate growth will become more important, in our view. Therefore, while the possibility of a June rate hike cannot be ruled out, we see no need to change our base-case scenario of a July rate hike."

The BoJ’s hawkish statement pushed the yen higher against the US dollar, before the Japanese currency weakened back to around ¥159.62, and was lower on the day. The widely watched Nikkei 225 Average, which surged to an all-time high of 60,537 points on Monday, shed 1%, while the Topix, which has a heavier weighting of banks and financial companies, was up 1%. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:25

US Energy Chief Says Hormuz Can Reopen Without Clearing All Mines, Warns Iran Shut-ins Could Be Devastating

US Energy Chief Says Hormuz Can Reopen Without Clearing All Mines, Warns Iran Shut-ins Could Be Devastating

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that not all mines placed by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz need to removed for ships to resume transiting the vital passageway: “You just need a pathway for ships to be moved in and out,” Wright said in an interview on the sidelines of the Three Seas Summit and Business Forum in Dubrovnik. “I think that can happen quickly” he added suggesting that a restart can happen far sooner than the full demining timeline. Fully clearing the strait of mines could take six months, a Pentagon official said during a classified Congressional briefing last week, the Washington Post reported.

Iran has said it laid mines along the most frequently used routes of the narrow waterway, which has been effectively closed since February 28, and through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited before the US and Israel launched a war on the Islamic Republic.

Understandably, shipping companies have been highly reluctant to attempt to navigate Hormuz, fearing seizure, mines, and a lack of other safety guarantees.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz is shut the longer a historic energy disruption will continue. In the US, a surge in pump prices comes months before President Donald Trump’s Republican party faces midterm elections.

Wright also said the US plans to announce “historic” pipeline agreements that will lead to increases in the amount of US oil and natural gas Europe imports as part of the Trump “Peace Pipeline Agenda.”

Last but not least, the US energy secretary repeated verbatim what we said over the weekend, when we pointed out that a prolonged shut in would be devastating to Iran's oil reservoirs as over half of them are low pressure "putting them at risk for permanent loss after shut-ins, via near-wellbore water emulsions, clay swelling, and water blockages."

Fast forward to this morning, when Wright told Bloomberg TV that "Iran does not have a lot of oil storage capacity and its old reservoirs are not suitable if the country decides to shut down production." That's because they’ve got old reservoirs that are low pressure, which means it’s much more destructive if they have to shut in their production."

With Iran having about 10-15 days before hitting tank tops (depending on how many tankers they use for storage), we'll find out in a few weeks if he is right. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:05

Collateral Damage

Collateral Damage

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-ASset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Negotiations between the US and Iran are going nowhere. In fact, they’re not really even happening at all. Over the weekend, Axios reported that Iran gave the US a proposal to reopen the Strait — not to end the war. The proposal includes extending the ceasefire and an assertion that any conversations about Iran’s nuclear program are off the table until the Strait is open and the US blockade is lifted. The US has not indicated whether it will accept or reject the proposal at the time of writing.

Assuming the US does agree to extend its indefinite ceasefire, a flimsy ceasefire extension, even if agreed to by both parties, holds little water. Remember, keeping the Strait open was a condition of the current ceasefire as agreed to on April 8, and we can all see how well that held up. Just take a look at the prices at the pump.

While conversations between the US and Iran stall, Iran is making friends elsewhere. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Putin yesterday, as Bloomberg reported that Araghchi told Putin he is “committed to strengthening the country’s partnership with Russia” and that “the Iranian people are able to ‘resist US aggression and will be able to overcome it.’”

As Iran and Russia are making nice, the US and Germany are not. During a visit to a school in western Germany, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the Trump Administration was being “humiliated” by Iran: “The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.” Trump has not commented on Merz’ claims at the time of writing.

The longer the Strait remains closed, the longer the European economy, and energy complex, is squeezed. Germany has rejected Trump’s calls to join the war under NATO, despite German leaders softly echoing support of US military efforts. Europe has drafted a plan to re-open the Strait after the war has ended, that is not enough to appease Trump, who has made his demands for NATO participation in the Iran war clear. But the question remains just how much collateral damage Europe is willing to be subject to in the pursuit of keeping its hands clean.

Europe’s reliance on energy from the Middle East and direct flows through the Strait of Hormuz suggest that they are in for more pain than the US under a prolonged closure. At the same time, they don’t have a fanatic obduracy to tolerate it like the Iran (or rather, the IRGC at the expense of the Iranian people). If negotiations fail to result in a somewhat peaceful re-opening of the Strait and conclusion of the US naval blockade, Europe may have no choice but to get involved.

It’s probable that the Trump Administration is aware of this. Trump has lambasted European leaders for refusing to support the US and in some cases, outright refusing to cooperate. If the US keeps the Strait closed and inflicts enough second-hand damage on Europe, Trump may be able to achieve the NATO military “cooperation” he has been asking for.

Crude oil futures have continued to grind higher, trading up to highs of $109/bbl yesterday. Futures prices have started to converge with the physical market, which is currently pricing crude at $113/bbl, narrowing the spread from highs of $35.9 earlier this month to only $4, which would be more consistent with levels seen pre-war.

Meanwhile, the Fed drama saga continues. The path to Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair seems to have cleared as the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has dropped its criminal probe into Powell with regard to the Federal Reserve’s renovation budget. However, whether Powell will stay on the Board is not yet certain. While Powell’s term as Chair ends in May, he is allowed to stay on the Board of Governors until January 2028.

Despite it being a highly popular question from reporters during the Fed decision press conference, Powell had been tight lipped about his plans for a while, until confirming more recently that he would stay on the Board until the DOJ investigation levied against him was concluded.

However, while the DOJ has dismissed the case, that doesn’t mean that Powell’s troubles are over. Rather, this means that the case has now landed on the desk of the Fed’s Office of Inspector General (OIG), though according to the Fed’s own article about the renovation, the OIG has had full access to all financial records and information throughout the duration of the project.

Given the dropped charges against Powell, that has opened up Senator Thom Tillis to vote to officially confirm Warsh as Fed Chair. Whether or not the Fed meeting tomorrow will be Powell’s last is still TBD. Read more from our Fed whisperer, Philip Marey, here.

A little farther north, Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced the creation of a Canadian sovereign wealth fund, called the “Canada Strong Fund.” The fund is designed to further lower barriers to business and investment in Canada—something the Carney has spoken about extensively as a part of his mission—by “investing in strategic Canadian projects and companies.”

A more financially-savvy Canadian government does not come without drawbacks. Carney has recently come under scrutiny by some after his ethics disclosure, which has led some to question the dissonance in Carney’s insistence that Canada needs to diversify away from the US, while he himself is heavily invested there.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:15

Conference Board Confidence Unexpectedly Jumps To Highest In 2026

Conference Board Confidence Unexpectedly Jumps To Highest In 2026

Despite war (and rising gas prices) now fully embedded in respondents' minds, it is perhaps surprising that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence rose considerably more than expected to 92.8 in April (89.0 exp) from an upwardly revised 92.2.

Present Situation dipped very modestly from 124.1 to 123.8 (120.1 exp) while Expectations rose from 71.0 to 72.2 (69.2 exp)

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest headline print in 2026.

“Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

"This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”

While the overall trend is still lower, The Board's indicator signaled a pick up in the labor market...

Source: Bloomberg

A two-week ceasefire and a rebound in stock market indices within the survey-sample period (April 1–22) likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March.

Still, consumers remained wary.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now ticked up.

 

Among demographic groups, confidence continued to trend downward on a six-month moving average basis for consumers aged 35 and up while younger consumers were a tad more confident in April. Respondents under 35 remained the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least.

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence improved among Millennials and Gen Z but declined among older generations. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis varied, but most income groups expressed less optimism.

By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence fell for Independents and improved slightly for Democrats.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:11

'Quality Learing Center' And 20 Other Somali-Linked Businesses Raided By FBI, Homeland Security In Minnesota

'Quality Learing Center' And 20 Other Somali-Linked Businesses Raided By FBI, Homeland Security In Minnesota

Federal agents from the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) executed court-authorized search warrants at more than 20 locations across the Minneapolis area early Tuesday morning, targeting businesses primarily linked to the Somali-American community as part of an ongoing criminal fraud investigation.

Fox News congressional correspondent Bill Melugin reported that the Department of Justice confirmed the operation to the network, stating it involves "court-authorized law enforcement activity as part of an ongoing fraud investigation." A separate DHS statement emphasized that HSI, working with federal, state, and local partners, carried out the warrants "relating to the rampant fraud of U.S. taxpayers dollars." Sources indicated approximately 22 warrants were served, explicitly tied to fraud schemes rather than immigration enforcement.

One prominent target was the Quality Learning Center (aka "Quality Learing Center") on Nicollet Avenue. The site, which previously operated as Salama Child Care Center, received roughly $1.9 million in Minnesota Child Care Assistance Program funds in fiscal year 2025 alone. It gained national attention in late December 2025 after independent journalist Nick Shirley released a video showing the center appearing largely empty during business hours, with a prominently misspelled sign. Shirley alleged widespread "ghost" operations billing government programs for nonexistent services and children.

The center voluntarily surrendered its state license in early January amid heightened scrutiny. It had a prior federal footprint: in May 2015, the same location was raided by the FBI and Minnesota DHS over allegations of billing state programs for non-existent children, leading to license revocation actions for safety violations.

A Pattern of Massive Fraud

Today’s raids continue a months-long federal surge into Minnesota’s social-services programs, which have been plagued by some of the largest fraud cases in recent U.S. history. The most notorious remains Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that prosecutors say orchestrated a $250+ million scheme to steal federal child nutrition funds during the COVID-19 pandemic through fake meal sites, inflated attendance rosters, and money laundering. Dozens of defendants—predominantly Somali-American—have been charged, with multiple convictions and sentencings continuing into 2026.

Other active investigations include:

  • Autism and early intervention (EIDBI) services fraud
  • Housing Stabilization Services
  • Integrated Community Supports
  • Medicaid personal-care assistance schemes
  • SNAP benefit trafficking (including "Operation Cold SNAP" raids in April 2026)

In January, Federal authorities reported issuing over 1,750 subpoenas, executing more than 130 search warrants, and interviewing over 1,000 witnesses across these cases.

FBI Director Kash Patel publicly described the Minnesota situation as "the tip of a very large iceberg," prompting a surge of bureau resources to the state. DHS has conducted hundreds of door-to-door inspections under initiatives such as Operation Twin Shield.

Political and Community Context

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison have faced sharp criticism from congressional Republicans and House Oversight committees for what critics call inadequate oversight of high-risk providers and slow state-level responses. State officials have countered that many centers serve legitimate low-income families (including large Somali-American populations) and that enforcement actions predate viral videos.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, whose district encompasses much of the affected Minneapolis area, has condemned the fraud as "reprehensible" while warning against broad stigmatization of the Somali community.

Her office has distanced itself from charged individuals, though some Republican lawmakers have pointed to past legislative efforts (such as expansions of child nutrition programs) and constituent ties as areas of scrutiny. No charges have been filed against Omar or her immediate family in these matters.

Somali community leaders have expressed concerns about economic fallout and reputational harm to legitimate businesses, while federal prosecutors stress that the investigations target criminal conduct and protect funds intended for vulnerable populations.

As of early Tuesday, no arrests or specific new charges from today’s warrants have been publicly detailed. More information is expected from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Minnesota, the FBI’s Minneapolis Field Office, and DHS. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:50

Chaos, Black Rain, Evacuations: Tuapse Oil Facility Struck For Third Time This Month

Chaos, Black Rain, Evacuations: Tuapse Oil Facility Struck For Third Time This Month

Rosneft's sprawling oil refinery in southern port town of Tuapse has been struck by Ukrainian drones once again, unleashing a huge fire and significant destruction, in what marks the third such attack just this month.

"Another serious incident has occurred in Tuapse. A large-scale fire broke out at an oil refinery due to an enemy drone attack," Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram, amid large-scale evacuations of the civilian population from the area.

Tuapse disaster in wake of Ukrainian attack, via Wiki Commons

Regional aviation hubs in nearby Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, and Sochi were closed as a result of the blaze which sent a large black smoke plume into the air stretching for at least 100km, regional reports indicate.

"For the safety of residents living near the refinery, evacuations are underway. A temporary accommodation center has been set up at local School No. 6. I urge residents to follow all recommendations," the regional government statement continued.

According to Ukrainian media:

The Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel CyberBoroshno reported that at least four tanks were burning at the refinery following the strike.

“If in previous attacks the tank farm was hit, this time the refinery itself was directly targeted… There is a possibility that the fire could spread to neighboring tanks,” the report said.

Reuters says that as a result of the several waves of attacks on Tuapse, operations at the plant have remained halted since April 16 - which was the first big strike of the month.

One is left wondering, what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:

"Intensive efforts are underway" to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: "As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time."

Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken "at an appropriate level."

The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.

The attacks have made parts of the sky black and the aftermath poses a safety risk for residents, also with reports of 'toxic rain' over the town, as the environmental situation spiraling - also with significant amounts of crude said to be leaking into the Black Sea.

Currently the globe's attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:35

US Home Prices Dipped In February For First Time Since June 2025

US Home Prices Dipped In February For First Time Since June 2025

For the first time since June 2025, US home prices (in the largest 20 cities) fell in February (by 0.05% MoM) according to the latest (admittedly lagging and smoothed) Case-Shiller data.

The decline comes after prices surged into the turn of year and has now dragged the YoY gain in prices down to just +0.9% - the weakest since July 2023. 

The trend is clear across almost every city...

Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, one could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...

But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:25

Israel Just Became Germany's Largest Arms Partner

Israel Just Became Germany's Largest Arms Partner

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is regarded as the top authority on the international arms trade, released its latest report about related trends from 2021-2025 last month.

The top takeaway is that “Europe was the region with the largest share of total global arms imports (33 per cent) for the first time since the 1960s”, but there are three other relatively more minor details therein that most observers missed but which are also important to be aware of. They are as follows:

1. South Korea Edged Out The US As Poland’s Top Arms Supplier

Last year’s report covering the years 2020-2024 noted that Poland imported 42% of its arms from South Korea during that period and 45% from the US, yet the last report shows that it imported 47% from South Korea and 44% from the US. This respectively amounted to 46% of South Korean arms exports from 2020-2024 and 58% from 2021-2025. In total, South Korea exported 2.2% of the world’s arms during the first period and 3% during the second, thus showing the global importance of sales to Poland.

Why this matters is that it represents the first time to the best of the author’s knowledge that a NATO member is now supplied more by an Asian country than a fellow Western one. Poland’s enormous military build-up, which has resulted in it now fielding NATO’s third-largest army, is also a boon for the South Korean arms industry. With Poland increasingly demonstrating the quality of these wares to its allies during NATO drills, it’s possible that other members of the bloc might soon follow its lead.

2. Kazakhstan’s Is Gradually Replacing Russian Arms With Western Ones

During the period 2020-2024, Kazakhstan imported 6.4% of its arms from Spain and 1.5% from Turkiye as its second- and third-largest arms suppliers, with Russia far ahead of them with 88% of its supplies. During the latest period from 2021-2025, imports from Spain increased to 7.9% while France replaced Turkiye as Kazakhstan’s third-largest supplier at 3.6%, with Russia’s share slightly decreasing to 83%. The decrease in Russia’s supplies was therefore roughly replaced by the increase in Western supplies.

Why this matters is that it contextualizes Kazakhstan’s decision last December to produce NATO-standard shells, the potential consequences of which were analyzed here as possibly placing it on an irreversible collision course with Russia. The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” across the South Caucasus could also facilitate the flow of more Western arms by reducing transport costs. It’s therefore expected that Kazakhstan will continue to gradually replace its Russian arms with Western ones.

3. Israel Became Germany’s Largest Arms Partner Due To A Mega Arms Deal

Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.

Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.

What these three trends have in common is their adverse impact on Russian national security. The Kremlin likely assumed that Poland and Germany would continue militarizing, even competing to lead Russia’s containment, but South Korea and Israel’s new respective roles as their top suppliers probably came as a surprise. What it might not have anticipated at all, however, was the West gradually making gains in the Kazakh arms market. Russia will have to deal with these latent threats somehow or another.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 07:20

Iran Already Scrambling For Oil Storage After Two Weeks Of US Blockade

Iran Already Scrambling For Oil Storage After Two Weeks Of US Blockade

Trump's blockade is having a predictable effect on Iran's economy and oil industry, with reports that the regime is scrambling to repurpose old and rusty tankers as floating storage.  Kharg Island is hitting capacity and the results could lead to disaster for Iran's oil wells. 

The regime is reportedly moving to expand crude storage at the island, where around 90% of their energy exports are processed, by reactivating a 30-year-old crude carrier called M/T Nasha.  It's a bad sign for Iran, indicating that the country’s main oil hub is nearing its onshore storage limit.  Maritime analysts say the vessel, which had been anchored empty for years, is being repositioned as floating storage to absorb crude that still has to move out of the system. 

But how much time will decommissioned tankers buy Iran?  Current estimates indicate Kharg Island has roughly 13 million barrels of spare onshore storage remaining at the terminal, while net inflows are running at about 1.0 million to 1.1 million barrels per day.  At that pace, storage could be filled in about 12 to 13 days, which places the saturation point in late April to early May if current flows hold.  A large tanker gives them another potential 2 million barrels of capacity.  In other words, not much. 

This data is a near match to JP Morgan's recent assessment that Iran has between 20 - 26 days of capacity (including emergency measures) before they hit the wall and are forced to shut down their oil fields. 

Trump's assertion on Sunday that Iran's oil infrastructure may "explode in three days" due to the blockade might be a bit optimistic, but with the threat of overcapacity it is likely that the Iranians will be forced to the negotiating table in the near term.

The regime's only other option is to divert the oil away from Kharg to the Jask Oil Terminal at Kooh Mobarak using the Goreh-Jask pipeline.  But this storage is limited and may already be full.

There are also limited reports that Iran is increasing "flaring" at wells to burn off excess.  To keep wells operating safely (avoiding sudden shutdowns that can cause permanent geological issues), operators are flaring off excess associated gas (and possibly some liquid byproducts) at a heightened rate.

If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future.  Recovery is expensive and difficult. 

If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed.  Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. 

The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. 

There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks.  The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.      

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 05:45

12-Year-Old French Girl Collapses After Judge Releases Men Arrested For Gang Raping Her In Airbnb

12-Year-Old French Girl Collapses After Judge Releases Men Arrested For Gang Raping Her In Airbnb

Via Remix News,

Two young men, both adults, suspected of gang rape in an Airbnb in the France’s Décines-Charpieu (Rhône), have been released from custody, shocking the family of one of the victims.

The victim’s lawyer, David Metaxas, spoke on behalf of the victim’s relatives, who told LyonMag that the judge’s decision was “incomprehensible.” Not only have both men been released to roam freely in the streets, but the judge did not even issue a restriction on contact with the victim, which means the two men could approach her once again.

Last week, the two men, aged 20 and 21, were arrested for the rape involving the 12-year-old, as well as a 16-year-old girl who had allegedly led the younger victim to the apartment. After reportedly exchanging messages with the two young men via Snapchat, the teen encouraged her younger friend to come with her to the Airbnb. Alcohol and drugs were allegedly consumed, with an excessive amount of hard liquor given to the 12-year-old.

Falling unconscious, the younger victim recounted waking up “lying on a bed covered in blood,” before realizing what had happened, recounts Lyon Mag. It was when she turned her phone back on that her mother was able to geolocate her, allowing the police to intervene. She is said to have run away from her home in Givors before the incident.

However, now the perpetrators are free. The family of the 12-year-old says her safety and innocence were tossed aside from the get-go, with police allegedly not even asking her to file a complaint initially.

“They were very poorly received, as if they were a nuisance,” said David Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old. He pointed to a total lack of support and guidance, adding the very obvious and visible signs of rape suffered by the young girl.

“It is unacceptable that the form to file a complaint was not given to them by the police. It must be remembered that they were dealing with a young girl who had been deflowered, anally and orally penetrated, and who had wounds all over her body.”

Unfortunately, the 16-year-old girl and the accused men all stated that the girl was consenting. “Everyone agrees that she was consenting, or even that she was provoking, even though she is 12 years old and was completely drunk to the point of losing consciousness,” he said, adding that at the hearing, the girl was in an advanced state of shock.

“The lack of coercive measures concerning the suspects […] is incomprehensible,” stated Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old, as quoted by LyonMag. He added that the court has failed to demand any judicial supervision or even a restraining order on the alleged perpetrators.  

“They can, if they wish, contact and visit the young girl whenever they want,”  he warns.  “Therefore, there is total incomprehension, not to mention anger, on the part of the family.”

As for the young victim, she allegedly collapsed in the lawyer’s office upon hearing of the decision and was taken to the hospital. “She is in a state of total shock. She couldn’t utter a single word in my office. The justice system needs to take charge of this case very quickly,” he stated.

Metaxas insists he will not let the matter be and will be asking the public prosecutor that “a specialized service be put in charge of the investigation with the implementation of coercive measures to ensure the safety of this minor.”

The two men are still under investigation.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 05:00

Pentagon Investigates Mystery Fire At UK Base Used For Bombing Iran

Pentagon Investigates Mystery Fire At UK Base Used For Bombing Iran

The US Air Force has reportedly opened an investigation into a fire that broke out over the weekend at RAF Fairford in the UK. Crucially, it is a key US-allied base hosting a US bomber unit carrying out strikes on Iran as part of Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

The fire started early Sunday inside an "old or disused building" at the airbase, a UK defense ministry spokesperson has said. The Pentagon is investigating alongside local partners: "An investigation has been initiated and is ongoing. More information will be released as it becomes available," a statement said.

source: The Telegraph

No injuries have been reported and officials said the blaze was quickly continued, with no further threat posed to the base and surrounding community. But it was clearly very large at one point, video evidence shows.

The US was permitted starting in March to use the base for Iran-related operations. The Telegraph describes further of the fire:

Several crews were deployed to the incident at RAF Fairford in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Footage taken overnight appears to show smoke billowing from what is claimed to be the base’s commissary, a shop that provides food and equipment. Other pictures from the scene show that the building’s roof collapsed as firefighters brought the blaze under control.

Authorities are suspicious there may have been some kind of act of sabotage at the base, given widespread local opposition to its us by American forces to bomb Iran.

There's also been chatter of Irani-linked 'terror cells' in Europe. According to more from The Telegraph:

While some welcomed the arrival, there had been protests against the decision, with around 200 people gathered at the base on Saturday. Protesters held signs that read “No war on Iran”, “US out of British bases” and “Stop Trump’s deadly wars”.

The use of RAF Fairford halves the time US bombers need to spend in the air. Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to allow US troops to use the base prevented what would have been a 37-hour round trip from Missouri to Iran.

RAF Fairford remains among the few European bases capable of supporting long-range US bombers such as the B-52 and B-2, and thus is an important staging and logistics hub for the Pentagon.

Tensions have of late been strained between the US and UK over the Iran war, with PM Starmer dealing with a lot of domestic opposition, and Trump at the same time pressuring him to do more alongside the US in Iran and the Hormuz Strait.

If the fire was indeed arson, European authorities will likely look at the potential that it could have been Russia-linked, given widespread allegations of Moscow-backed sabotage operations in Europe and the UK, throughout the Ukraine war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 04:15

NATO Minus US: European Militaries Won't Add Up To Deter Russia

NATO Minus US: European Militaries Won't Add Up To Deter Russia

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s European nations would need to bolster standing militaries by at least 300,000 troops and significantly boost defense spending beyond 3.5 percent of gross domestic product - at least 250 billion euros - while reviving and integrating their industrial base to defend themselves against Russia without the United States.

And they’d need to do that fast, according to a 2025 joint analysis by European think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for World Economy.

They warn that even with 80,000 American soldiers and airmen stationed on 30 bases on the continent—and the United States’ capacity to rapidly deploy forces—Moscow will test NATO’s resolve “within three to 10 years.”

The once-inconceivable prospect of the United States withdrawing from NATO is now a possibility. President Donald Trump—never a fan of the 32-nation coalition the Pentagon has spearheaded since 1949—has called for a “very serious examining” of the alliance, after its members failed to respond to his appeal to assist in the Iran war or join the U.S. Navy’s Arabian Sea blockade of Iranian shipping. 

Trump has vowed Europeans could face a “reckoning” without American leadership and support. Such a departure would require unlikely congressional approval, but the president’s statements are sparking discussion on both sides of the Atlantic about a restructuring of the alliance that would require Europeans to shoulder more of NATO’s burden.

As widely reported, European allies are actively discussing and preparing for a “NATO minus U.S.” scenario. The idea originated in response to Trump’s demand for Europeans to bulk up support for Ukraine in fighting off Russia’s invasion, his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark, and his characterization of member states as “cowards” unlikely to uphold NATO’s commitments.

While Americans have questioned NATO’s post-Cold War resolve since former President Barack Obama’s administration, Europeans in turn have questioned Trump’s reliability in meeting treaty obligations. 

In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during the alliance’s 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries—roughly matching the percent of GDP the U.S. spends on its armed forces—and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements, such as cybersecurity, crisis response, and adapting roads, rail lines, bridges, and ports to military needs.

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal (L) and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte address the audience during a press statement at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on Oct. 15, 2025. Prodding by the United States to be more self-reliant in continental defense was already an urgency in most European capitals after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images Muscle and Money

The Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis documents Europe’s armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million troops. In order to withstand a hypothetical Russian invasion, a European-only force would need 300,000 more infantry soldiers, or roughly 50 more brigades, than it had in 2025. It would need a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces with more than 1 million 155 mm shells—the minimum for three months of combat, the Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis states. 

That boost in manpower and armaments would exceed the current French, German, Italian, and British forces combined.

And that’s just ground forces.

To match Russian war-footing military production—even with Ukraine attrition—a Europe-only military would need collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units. Such an army would need to replace stationed U.S. forces and rotational deployments within the 65-mile Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, while also establishing bases in Moldova and Romania.

These are but a few of the challenges a “NATO minus the U.S.” would face, military analysts and international relations scholars told The Epoch Times. And as Europeans by necessity assumed a more robust posture on the continent, American forces would need to compensate for the loss of specialties and skills brought by their European allies.

French soldiers dismantle a drone during the Dynamic Front 26 exercise in Cincu, Romania, on Feb. 9, 2026. In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during its 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements. Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images

Non-U.S. NATO forces are well-trained and have some highly competent defense manufacturing industries,” said University of Miami professor of politics June Teufel Dreyer, a senior Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow and former U.S.–China Economic and Security Review commissioner. 

European giants such as Thales and Leonardo would “surely be attracted by the idea of more indigenous investment,” Dreyer said. But, she added, European defense contractors “also know the funds they need aren’t guaranteed” without orders from the U.S. military to, for instance, annually build 2,000 “long-range loitering munitions”—drones—to match Russia’s numbers.

The French and the Germans build highly thought of diesel-electric submarines; Sweden produces great fighter planes,” Dreyer said.

But from a nuclear deterrent perspective, a U.S. departure from NATO is problematic. Dreyer pointed to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s June 2025 announcement that Britain would buy at least 12 U.S.-made F-35s to “enhance the interoperability of NATO defense” in its nuclear posture, since these jets would be the UK’s only nuclear deterrent beyond its submarine force. The stealth fighter is the first to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.

U.S. and European allies’ coordination in defense procurement and production “saves money and the R&D costs for the most advanced weapons,” she said, noting while the projected cost for the sixth-generation F-47 is $4.4 billion, but it is a shared NATO expense.

U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin speaks alongside President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on March 21, 2025. Trump announced F-47, a sixth-generation fighter intended to replace the F-22 Raptor, for the Next Generation Air Dominance program. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Specialties and Skills

If NATO ties are severed, the United States will no longer benefit from what retired Navy captain and Epoch Times contributor Carl Schuster calls “amazing capabilities that may prove essential in any conflict.” Those capabilities include aircraft and ship design, special ops, and regional know-how such as mountain operations capabilities and Arctic warfare expertise. 

However, many European military assets are aging, and it was only after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and Trump’s threats to pull the United States from the alliance—that leaders showed urgency to address the deficiencies, Schuster said.

He expressed doubts about Spain—which has refused to let the United States use bases on its mainland to attack Iran—and Turkey. 

Spain has rejected any idea of its ground and air forces being committed to combat outside Spanish territory,“ he said. ”So their contribution to NATO defense is more statistical than real.”

Turkey has the alliance’s largest ground force, yet its “willingness to contribute to the defense of Greece, Bulgaria, and Eastern Europe” may be questionable, he said.

Middle East Forum Director Gregg Roman also questioned Turkey’s NATO commitment, in a September 2025 column in The Epoch Times, calling for “an urgent compartmentalization assessment” after Turkey made overtures to China and Iran during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. 

“Six months later,” he said in April, “that assessment is non-optional. You know, thinking about everything [NATO] is trying to put together—joint air missile defense planning—with an ally like Turkey that is functionally aligned with Iran and the [SCO] bloc that we’re opposing, they can’t be trusted."

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 03:30

Zelensky Charges Russia With 'Nuclear Terrorism' On 40th Chernobyl Anniversary

Zelensky Charges Russia With 'Nuclear Terrorism' On 40th Chernobyl Anniversary

President Volodymyr Zelensky led Ukraine in a Sunday ceremony marking the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and used the occasion to call on the international community to take decisive action against what he called ongoing Russian "nuclear terrorism".

There were various candlelight remembrance ceremonies in cities across Ukraine, and in the capital. Later echoing the statement on Telegram, Zelensky alleged the the Chernobyl site's the New Safe Confinement structure - built with support from more than 40 countries - is under direct threat from Moscow’s aggression.

IAEA/X

The 1986 explosion and Chernobyl core meltdown is widely considered to be among the largest man-made disasters in human history. Zelensky has been hyping that another could be around the corner given Moscow's latest actions.

"Russian-Iranian Shahed drones constantly fly over the station, and one of them hit the confinement last year," Zelensky said, warning that another disaster could be imminent. 

"The world must not allow this nuclear terrorism to continue, and the best way is to force Russia to stop its reckless attacks," he then emphasized.

He described that protecting the Chernobyl site serves global interests and that the only way to guarantee safety is to force Russia to "stop its mad attacks."

The warning followed a major aerial assault on Saturday in which Russia launched over 660 missiles and drones at Ukraine, targeting cities and areas nationwide, including strikes on civilian infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv.

Various international organizations say extreme danger for disaster persists, but Rosatom insists it has safety under control:

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, and Moldovan President Maia Sandu joined the commemorative events.

Commenting on damage to the shell, which the environmental group Greenpeace says raises the risk of a radioactive leak, Grossi said that "repairs should start as soon as possible and that leaving the situation as it is now is problematic."

Any repairs to the massive metal outer structure, which may potentially take up to four years, are virtually impossible due to Russia's invasion, according to Greenpeace.

Russia's nuclear agency Rosatom, the successor of the Soviet atomic energy ministry, which managed the facility, said: "To remember Chernobyl means to remember the people who bore the brunt of the disaster, and to take that experience into account in every decision we make today, to prevent a similar catastrophe."

There was a very alarming 2025 incident where an explosive drone hit the protective containment shell of the defunct Chernobyl plant. However, emergency crews were able to make it to the impact site on the immense roof and make repairs. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides pointed the finger at the other for that attack.

Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war - and nuclear officials have been keenly aware of this possibility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 02:45

Orbán Vs Magyar: Did The EU Get Played?

Orbán Vs Magyar: Did The EU Get Played?

Authored by Arthur Schaper via American Greatness,

Viktor Orbán, the valiant populist, the restorer of the Christian faith in Hungary, the welcome thorn in the side of the EU establishment, and the strong ally of President Trump since his first bid for office, has lost his own re-election bid. I had a feeling it would come to this.

Sixteen years of uninterrupted administration as a strong force for conservative, right-wing nationalist populism have come to an end, at least with Orbán as the head of it.

Sometimes, voters have a strange fatigue when it comes to governments. Fourteen years of a “conservative” UK government ushered in the Labour Party in 2024. However, fatigue doesn’t explain Orbán’s crushing loss.

What set that off?

Corruption charges and the argument that his administration had looked the other way when sex abuse scandals broke out at a local school.

Economics reared its ugly head, as well, since the EU was cutting off its funding. Orbán’s supposed lack of judicial reforms, as well as his uniform check on EU policy, frustrated Brussels.

Orbán faced a crisis election, and inviting US VP JD Vance to campaign on his behalf didn’t help.

Why would Hungarian voters care what a foreign politician thinks? This desperate move only exacerbated how out of touch the Orbán government had become. Critics also saw him as too close to Russian “president” Vladimir Putin and unhelpful in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war. The EU had been waiting for this opportunity: an unpopular Orbán facing electoral collapse.

They were salivating for a post-Orbán Hungary, one that would stop its Christian restorationism, welcome more LGBT promotion, tolerate more spending, and open its borders.

Would the Orbán replacement accomplish their scheme?

His challenger, Péter Magyar, was trained and prepped as an Orbán acolyte.

In 2024, he broke from his party, but not over core policy. Magyar (whose name means “Hungarian,” for what it’s worth) campaigned to end corruption and restore good government in Hungary. He campaigned to the right of Orbán, calling for an end to importing cheap labor into the country. He campaigned on cracking down harder on immigration—illegal and mass—than the incumbent.

His message, if anyone was listening, wasn’t pro-EU. He was still asking the question: “What about us Hungarians?”

Supporters of the cultural restoration Right thought that Orbán was not getting the job done. Was he failing?

April 12, 2026, Magyar’s Tisza Party swept the elections: supermajority status, up to 140 out of 199 seats. Orbán won 56 seats, and another far-right party won the rest.

Sure, EU progressive elites celebrate Orbán’s loss, as did Barack Obama and George Soros. They view the downfall of Orbán as a harbinger for the end of Republican hegemony in Washington later this year.

Yet look again at the results of the Hungarian parliamentary elections. I mentioned three parties that won seats: three right-wing parties. Not one left-wing or centrist element came to power or won seats. A minimum threshold of five percent in the election results is required for a party to place. The left was shut out of the Hungarian Parliament.

The Right Wing won Hungary. Orbán may have lost his premiership, but Orbánism is standing strong.

This election focused on personalities, not principles.

Magyar is just as socially conservative as Orbán. He has already pledged to end the foreign permit workers. He wants to give Hungarians in other countries a chance to come back to their own country and thrive again. That’s about as “Hungary First” as it gets!

Magyar has already stated that he will not support fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership into the EU. Huge move for ending the Russo-Ukrainian war!

He announced a diversification plan for energy. Instead of relying predominantly on Russia, he wants to draw oil from the South and the West, as well. This sounds like real economic freedom for Hungary. National populism is great, but it must face economic realities. Too many right-wing populist governments are shoveling out money to voters for school supplies, raising families, and pensions. Where is the money supposed to come from? More taxes?! From whom?

Right-wing socialism is still . . . socialism, and Orbán had a problem here.

Eventually, the government runs out of others’ money, or inflation bites whatever purchasing power the government intended for the people. Inflation and tariff pressures weighed down Orbán’s reelection chances.

Orbán’s Hungary was still not the perfect social conservative paradise for other reasons. Prostitution is still legalAbortion is also still legal. While countries need to encourage their native populations to bear children, that vision will collapse in the face of easy sex and no responsibility. Cultural norms need reinforcement, with no tolerance for deviance.

Orbán and his party imposed vaccine passports and health mandates during COVID. How is this good for the working public? Where is the freedom? Too much state-sponsored anything is bad for a country.

Even now, Hungarians cannot own a gun without passing strict government demands. Czechia made self-defense a right, and in Switzerland everyone owns a gun (though it’s registered with the state).

Throughout his tenure, Orbán strengthened ties with China, joining the deceptive Belt and Road initiative. He even allowed Chinese police to operate in his country! American citizens voiced righteous outrage when the local press exposed former New York City mayor Eric Adams for allowing a CCP-run police station in the Big Apple. Yet no one on the Right complained about Orbán allowing CCP Hungary? That’s wrong.

There’s room for improvement, and Magyar has the opportunity to exceed Orbán’s victories while correcting his mistakes.

He is already doubling down on stopping mass migration!

He is committed to putting all Hungarians first, and he is fighting for the rights of ethnic Hungarians in other countries.

Magyar must revive and restore Hungary’s economy. One can hope he will place his country in a better position to profit without dependence and root out undue Chinese influence.

In a media masterstroke, he appeared on state television to discuss his plans for the country. Without missing a beat, he dressed down the reporter interviewing him, castigating the news organization for not allowing him on their program over the last year and a half. He then scolded them for lying about him and his family.

Then came the coup de grace: he announced his government plan to cut their funding and shut them down. Hungary needs honest independent media, he said, not government-funded agitprop that would inspire envy in Joseph Goebbels or North Korea.

He is not hostile to Putin, but he will not engage him aggressively either: sounds a lot like Trump!

He will not participate in the EU migration pact. He is keeping up the border fences, but he has also pledged to find a way for the EU to release the funds that the country needs, too.

He is making inroads with his Slavic neighbors, including the more populist, nationalist leaders in Slovakia and Czechia.

Magyar reminds me of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He isn’t just talking the national populist talk. He is walking the walk, and he is sprinting ahead with major reforms.

Orbán was T-800. Magyar may well be T-1000, and the EU Left is going to find that he will be worse for their globalist, leftist, secularist agenda.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 02:00

America: Land Of The (Not Really) Free

America: Land Of The (Not Really) Free

Authored by Ron Paul via the Ron Paul Institute,

Two weeks ago, President Donald Trump commemorated income tax payments being due by having DoorDash deliver food from McDonald’s to the White House. The delivery was intended to highlight the first year of tax-free tips. Removing tax on tips was part of the 2025 Big Beautiful Bill (BBB).

As the sponsor of the first No Tax on Tips legislation introduced in Congress, I was obviously pleased to see this change in tax laws included in the BBB. The bill also included other good tax changes such as removing tax on overtime and extending the 2017 tax cuts. Unfortunately, the bill also increased federal spending and debt.

Supporters of the income tax implicitly endorse the idea that our rights are gifts from government and, thus, can be revoked by government at the will of our rulers. Adoption of the income tax signified the abandonment of the belief that individuals have inalienable rights granted them by the Creator.

Therefore, those who believe in natural rights must reject income taxation. It is also a violation of the people’s rights when the central bank reduces the value of the dollar, and thus the people’s purchasing power, via the hidden inflation tax.

The income tax system’s rejection of natural rights is exemplified by withholding that gives government first claim on an individual’s earnings. The government then may return, via what it calls a refund, some of what was taken. However, a normal refund is when a business returns a customer’s payment because the customer is dissatisfied with the good or service he received, not when a thief returns some of what the thief stole.

Withholding was implemented during World War Two as a “temporary” wartime measure. Yet, it is still with us decades later.

Milton Friedman, as a young economist, played a role in the US government’s development of withholding. Of course, Friedman went on to become a leading advocate for free markets. He also redeemed himself for his work on withholding by becoming a prominent advocate for ending the military draft.

The draft is the worst example of how the government has rejected the principles of the Declaration of Independence. The draft gives government power to force young men (and possibly young women) to join the military and kill or be killed in a war. Contrary to the beliefs of some progressives, support for the draft is not justified by allowing individuals to choose between serving in the military or performing some other form of mandated “service.”

While the US does not have a military draft, the infrastructure for the draft remains in place via Selective Service registration. A provision in this year ‘s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) allows Selective Service to automatically register all men between the ages of 18 and 25. This makes it easier than ever for government to reinstate a draft.

Income taxes, along with the military draft and other types of mandated “service,” are incompatible with a free society and should be opposed by all who value liberty and peace. As Ronald Reagan said in a statement that could be modified to apply to income taxes, the draft “rests on the assumption that your kids belong to the state…. That assumption isn’t a new one. The Nazis thought it was a great idea.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 23:25

OpenAI Misses Revenue, User Targets As CFO Fears $1.5 Trillion In Commitments Can't Be Paid

OpenAI Misses Revenue, User Targets As CFO Fears $1.5 Trillion In Commitments Can't Be Paid

Earlier today, when previewing this week's earnings by the Mag 7 which account for over $10 trillion in market cap set to report Q1 results after the close on Wednesday, Goldman's Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky said that "Equities are being driven by one thing…AI spend", and warned that "it's hard not to respect the strength of the AI bid, but the velocity has been extreme. The upside surprise vs expectations has almost entirely come from AI spend…it’s the whole game." 

Not only is the whole game, it is the one thing that has prevented the market from collapsing into the Iran war's stagflationary black hole, with "oil/product prices is sucking the oxygen out of the room...Europe underperforming, dispersion extreme." 

But none of that matters as long as capex recipients, i.e., chip and semi stocks, keep surging on hopes and expectations that the LLMs and hyperscalers will keep pumping them full of cash day after day, for the unforeseeable future, which they have so far: recall that at the end of Q4, full-year capex estimates soared to a mindblowing $740 billion among just 6 hyperscalers (a number which is expected to rise to almost $1 trillion in 2027).

And at top of this trickle-down monetary waterfall is none other than Sam Altman's OpenAi, generously peeing money into the overeager mouths of hyperscalers around the globe, having built up staggering purchase commitments to the tune of $1.5 trillion because there will never be enough compute. 

Maybe Sam's right: perhaps there truly is an insatiable need for compute (unless of course one uses Chinese LLMs and/or RAM chips, both of which have a fraction of the hardware demands of the latest and greatest US technology). 

The problem arises when one asks if OpenAI will ever be enough revenue to satisfy these astronomic commitments. 

For much of the past year, that has been the core thesis behind countless AI bear cases: now that even Michael Hartnett openly calls tech a "bubble", the question is not if but when, to which the bulls have calmly countered that as long as the drunken-sailor at the helm of OpenAi keeps spending at the rate he has been, the "when" isn't coming any time soon.

It now appears, however, that the "when" may have come much sooner than most thought. 

According to the WSJ, OpenAI has recently missed its own targets for both new users and revenue, stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it will be able to support its massive spending on data centers.

One of them is the company's finance chief: CFO Sarah Friar told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough. In other words, that $1.5 trillion OpenAI had pledged to spend on various data centers, GPUs and memory chips... you can kiss all that goodbye.

Of course, none of this will come as a surprise to anyone familiar with Sam's mercurial style of capital allocation. As a reminder, when OpenAi made its $1.5 trillion flurry of deal announcements last fall, a few things were missing, among them how it plans to fund them, details of the bulk of the financial terms, and any mention of who was providing independent, clear-eyed advice on these complex mega transactions. The reason for that, as the FT reported at the time, is OpenAI still doesn’t know exactly how it will fund them, the terms mostly don’t exist, and advisers were overwhelmingly shunned.

In fact, we learned last October, Sam Altman came up with the “bold vision” himself and leaned heavily on a small number of lieutenants to flesh out the details and push the deals through with little involvement of bankers or lawyers.

One of the brilliant side quests completed by Altman during this period of epic obfuscation (and unprecedented wealth generation by Sam for himself from a "non-profit" thanks to nothing more than promises) was unleashing the AI circle jerk, pardon, circular financing concept, where one company would "invest" in its customer, only to see that money flow back to its through the income statement but not before lifting its PE by several turns; this process would be repeated countless of times lifting all AI valuations substantially even if no actual revenue or cash flow was created. Eventually, virtually every company in the AI sector was wrapped up in such circular structures that tied together suppliers, investors and customers (see "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk".")

Yet promises (and lies) can only go so far, and even the loftiest of grand schemes are eventually brought to the ground when the revenue fails to materialize. As it has for OpenAi.

As a result, the company's board of directors have started to closely examine the company’s data-center deals in recent months and questioned Sam Altman’s efforts to secure even more computing power despite the business slowdown, the WSJ reported.

The spending scrutiny is constraining Altman’s once-boundless ambitions ahead of a potential IPO that could take place by the end of the year (he desperately wants to go public before his former employee and arch nemesis, Dario Amodei takes Anthropic public).

Friar and other executives are now seeking to control costs and instill more discipline in the business, at times putting them at odds with their CEO; this may very well mean that the money spigot that has pumped hundreds of billions in capex promises is about to be shut as well, leaving the entire AI ecosystem in a Wile E Coyote moment, suspended in the air off the cliff, just before gravity kicks in.

In a desperate attempt to keep reality as far away as possible, the two heads of OpenAI had no choice but to deny there was any trouble in paradAIs: “We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day,” Altman and Friar said in a joint statement. Any suggestion that the pair are divided or pulling back on securing new computing resources is “ridiculous,” they said. 

Well, of course they would: the alternative would be an immediate collapse of OpenAI's valuation as revenue growth suddenly collapses, and takes the entire AI bubble with it.

Still, with OpenAI having difficulty to generate even 2% of its spending commitments in the form of revenue (ignoring that the company will likely never be profitable), denials may be all OpenAI has left. 

For years, Altman has sought to lock up as much data-center capacity as possible, arguing that computing shortages were the biggest constraint to OpenAI’s growth. As noted above, Sam went on a "dealmaking" spree last year that put OpenAI on the hook for some $1.5 trillion in future spending commitments, and tied much of the tech sector’s success to OpenAI’s.

In other words, if OpenAI goes down, it will take the entire AI sector with it. And since AI is now 40% of the S&P500... you get the picture (if you don't, reread the comments above from Goldman's Delta One head).

Not that anyone can blame Sam for thinking he would get away with it: for a long time, he did. His “buy everything” computing strategy was buoyed by ChatGPT’s seemingly invincible success, and had the support of both Friar and the board. But the chatbot’s growth slowed toward the end of last year, especially as Claude starting stealing clients, sowing fresh doubt among company leaders about the approach.

What followed next was the first domino to fall: OpenAI missed an internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year, according to people familiar with the goals. The company still hasn’t announced that milestone, unnerving some investors the WSJ reports. It also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT as well after Google’s Gemini saw massive growth late last year and ate into OpenAI’s market share. Worst of all, for the industry where there are still almost no switching costs, the company has also struggled with defection rates among subscribers, according to WSJ sources.

Things went from bad to worse in 2026 when OpenAI missed multiple monthly revenue targets earlier this year after losing ground to Anthropic in the coding and enterprise markets, people familiar with its finances said.

OpenAI recently raised $122 billion in what was the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, putting it on more solid financial footing. But to get there, the company signed up for so much computing power that it expects to burn through that amount in the next three years, and that's assuming that it meets ambitious revenue targets. Some of the funding is also conditional and depends on specific agreements with partners (and may explain why Microsoft, which knows the company's business best of all, dramatically revised its agreement with OpenAI earlier today).  

To streamline costs, OpenAi recently cut non-core projects such as its video-generation app Sora. OpenAI also recently released GPT-5.5, a powerful model that topped a number of industry benchmarks. Then again, in an industry where the frontier jumps every 2-3 months, the latest model will be obsolete by July. 

Meanwhile, a blowback from within the user base is emerging: a number of AI companies including Anthropic have faced a capacity crunch for computing in recent weeks, leading to price increases for access to AI processors, outages and rationing. The challenges have rankled power users of AI products, especially coders who have grown frustrated when AI systems have been unable to finish tasks in a way they had come to expect from past use.

In a recent memo to investors, OpenAI said that it has been able to secure more computing capacity than Anthropic, giving it an advantage in reaching users. The memo, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, also addressed Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s veiled criticism of OpenAI at a recent business conference, when he said some companies had pulled “the risk dial too far” on data-center spending. 

“In hindsight, that caution looks less like discipline and more like underestimating how fast demand would arrive,” the OpenAI memo said. 

It would be extremely ironic is Anthropic's "caution" proves correct in the end, and OpenAI is forced to cancel its contracts as it simply does not have the money (but not before Masa Son implodes).

In recent months, Friar has also expressed reservations about OpenAI’s plans to go public by the end of this year, according to people familiar with the matter.  She has emphasized to executives and board directors the need for OpenAI to improve its internal controls, cautioning that the company isn’t yet ready to meet the rigorous reporting standards required of a public company. Altman, who has favored a more aggressive timeline for an IPO.

OpenAI has to work through a slate of other issues ahead of a public listing. The company is currently experiencing a leadership vacuum after its second-in-command, Fidji Simo, unexpectedly took medical leave earlier this month.

But the knockout blow for OpenAi could, ironically, come from the person who funded the company in the first place back when it was still an "Open" non-profit. Court proceedings began today in a lawsuit by Elon Musk in which he is seeking to oust Altman and unwind OpenAI’s conversion into a for-profit company. Should Musk prevail, OpenAI may or may not survive, but Sam Altman will have no choice but to move on to his next scam. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 22:51

"Racial-Profiling" Or Race-Baiting? Tom Steyer's Illiterate Take On English Proficiency

"Racial-Profiling" Or Race-Baiting? Tom Steyer's Illiterate Take On English Proficiency

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

If you go to NASCAR to watch the cars crash, the Democratic gubernatorial race in California has been a thrilling pile-up.

The recent debate saw all the Democratic candidates play the race card over a curious issue. When asked if they supported the move to rescind at least 17,000 commercial driver’s licenses to illegal aliens, every single Democrat declared the policy racist. The candidates also pledged to support truckers who cannot speak or read English.

When Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican candidate, said that being able to read English (and particularly English signs) should be mandatory, Porter lectured the Hispanic sheriff on racism, saying that his support for English proficiency by truckers disqualified him from being governor of California.

Not to be outdone, Democratic candidate Tom Steyer declared that requiring truck drivers to be able to read English is “racial profiling.”

Steyer, a billionaire, has been funding his own campaign with almost $120 million and has tried to capture the far-left supporters of Swalwell. In so doing, he has increasingly looked like Howard Hughes with better-trimmed nails.

Steyer grabbed Swalwell’s platform of pledging to arrest ICE officers and take punitive measures against them. He cannot fulfill that pledge, and the Ninth Circuit recently shot down the flagrantly unconstitutional California law seeking to dictate the conduct or appearances of federal officers. The law was supported by Gov. Gavin Newsom and all of the Democratic candidates.

Steyer’s claim that English proficiency rules are “racial profiling” is more Looney Tunes than law.

Racial profiling occurs when a person’s racial appearance alone is grounds for reasonable suspicion for a stop or search. English proficiency requirements are race-neutral conditions to ensure basic safety in the operation of large trucks. We have seen several fatal cases involving undocumented persons who could not read or speak English proficiently.

Even the use of apparent race or ethnicity is allowed when part of a totality of circumstances or observations by law enforcement. Last year, the Supreme Court stayed a racial profiling case from California on that ground, in favor of law enforcement, in a 6-3 decision in Noem v. Vasquez-Perdomo.

If requiring English proficiency is racial profiling, a wide array of jobs in the United States are the products of racism, including airplane pilotsair traffic controllersU.S. militaryastronautsmechanics, and baseball umpires. Even the European Space Agency has required English proficiency.

By Steyer’s standard, he may also be the product of a racial profiling system. In order to appear on the ballot, Steyer certified that he is a U.S. citizen. To be a U.S. citizen, you must be proficient in English. Thus, a candidate must certify that he is both a citizen and English-proficient. He can then go on a stage and call such requirements racial profiling without any basis in the law.

Ironically, Steyer made much of his money managing Farallon Capital Management, which profited from owning private prisons and, in the case of Corrections Corporation of America (CCA), actually runs one of the largest ICE facilities. Now called CoreCivicthe company requires not only U.S. citizenship but also English proficiency.

As with the pledges to arrest ICE officers and dictate how they conduct their operations, the racial profiling claim is knowingly misleading and unfounded. It is designed to pander to the far left by suggesting that requiring basic English skills of large-truck operators is somehow unlawful or unconstitutional.

The only thing that Steyer proved, again, is that there are sadly few requirements to run for governor of California beyond a large fortune and little shame.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 22:35

Kim Jong Un Opens Museum Commemorating Troops Killed Fighting For Russia, Blasts US 'Hegemony'

Kim Jong Un Opens Museum Commemorating Troops Killed Fighting For Russia, Blasts US 'Hegemony'

North Korea has continued its surprising level of public acknowledgement of troop deaths in the Russia-Ukraine war, where it has maintained some 10,000 or more troops in support of Moscow. Starting last summer North Korea began issuing footage of coffins of slain DPRK troops being flown into Pyongyang, with Kim Jong Un in attendance.

Now the 'pariah' nation long hated by Washington is taking publicizing its Russia operation a big step further, having newly opened a memorial museum in Pyongyang for its soldiers killed in the conflict

KCNA via AFP

What is called the Memorial Museum of Combat Feats at the Overseas Military Operations has been formally opened in an inaugural ceremony on Sunday. The occasion fell on the one-year anniversary of the two countries having liberated Russia’s Kursk border region from a Ukrainian incursion.

State-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) confirmed that Kim Jong Un attended the event along with senior Russian officials, including State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

South Korea’s intelligence agency some  2,000 North Korean troops have been killed in the operation, out of some 15,000 total; however, neither Moscow nor Pyongyang have issued any official figures.

In a speech by Kim during the ceremony, he declared that the fallen troops would remain "a symbol of the Korean people’s heroism" and would support "a victorious march by the Korean and Russian people."

He also as expected lashed out at the United States for imperialist wars, charging that Washington and its allies are pursuing a "hegemonic plot and military adventurism" on the Russia-Ukraine front.

Back in April, President Putin released a statement saying, "The Russian people will never forget the heroism of the Korean special forces. We will always honor the Korean heroes who gave their lives for Russia and for our shared freedom, alongside their brothers-in-arms from the Russian Federation."

KCNA via AFP

Eventually, Pyongyang will want Russia to return the favor as part of the two countries' deepened defense pact. There's always the potential for renewed conflict on the Korean peninsula - and potential presence of Russia troops in the north would certainly complicate things, also given the permanent American bases in South Korea.

Ukraine has meanwhile long bitterly complained about the foreign contingencies helping Russia, and in previously claimed that North Korea could send up to 30,000 - though there's been little evidence of such a high figure.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 22:10

SEC Issues Warning For US Investors On Phishing, Smishing, & Vishing Scams

SEC Issues Warning For US Investors On Phishing, Smishing, & Vishing Scams

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned investors recently that fraudsters use phishing, smishing, and vishing scams to attempt to compromise their financial, investment, or personal accounts.

“Phishing, smishing, and vishing are types of scams where a fraudster tries to trick you into providing sensitive personal or financial information by posing as an entity you know or trust, such as an investment firm, bank, or some other personal service that you use,” the SEC said in an April 23 alert.

Once a malicious actor gets the personal information of a target, such as social security numbers, bank account numbers, ATM PINs, and driver’s licenses, they can use this to access the target’s accounts

“The main difference between these ‘-ishing’ scams is the method the fraudster uses to try to steal your information or carry out other attacks.”

Phishing involves the use of email to contact a target, tricking them into providing personal or financial information. This is done by urging the target to reply to the mail, clicking on a link to a website mimicking a legitimate platform, or opening an attachment, which downloads malware into their systems.

Fraudsters can use names of real people, companies, or government agencies to make the message sound authentic. The email address they use may contain the name of a company or government agency. The emails could also contain official-looking fine print, legal references, along with graphics and logos.

Such emails typically invoke urgency to solicit information. For instance, the hackers may claim the target’s bank account or other types of accounts will be closed if it’s not updated with certain information. Some fraudsters can claim problems with account or payment information, while others entice through monetary schemes such as prize money.

Smishing and vishing are similar to phishing. Smishing involves fraud via texts or direct messages, while vishing involves the fraudsters contacting targets via phone calls.

In its 2025 Internet Crime Report, the FBI listed phishing as a major financial crime type for the year.

The agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) received more than 1 million complaints in total from people who were defrauded out of their money.

Last year, phishing/spoofing was the top crime type reported to IC3, which received 191,561 complaints. Phishing and spoofing resulted in more than $215 million in losses to the complainants.

In the recent alert, the SEC said that its efforts to warn investors about phishing, smishing, and vishing were in accordance with a March 6 executive order signed by President Donald Trump, “Combating Cybercrime, Fraud, and Predatory Schemes Against American Citizens.”

The order defined cybercrime and predatory schemes as activities involving phishing scams, ransomware and malware attacks, sextortion, financial fraud, and impersonation. It called on officials to determine how regulatory, operational, technical, and diplomatic tools can be improved to counter transnational criminal organizations behind cybercrimes.

In a March 6 Fact Sheet, the White House said, “In 2024, American consumers reported losing more than $12.5 billion to cyber-enabled fraud, with seniors on average losing the most.”

“[Seventy-three] percent of U.S. adults have experienced some kind of online scam or attack, and 87 percent of seniors view online scams and attacks as a major problem.”

Protecting Accounts

In another April 23 alert, the SEC advised people to protect their online investment accounts from fraud by using strong passwords, changing passwords regularly, using two-step verification, turning on account alerts, adding biometric safeguards, and avoiding using public computers to access accounts.

SEC asked investors to use caution when using public Wi-Fi connections.

“If you access your account on a public wireless connection, such as at a coffee shop or airport, you should use extra caution. It is very easy to ‘eavesdrop’ on internet traffic, including passwords and other sensitive data, on a public wireless network.”

The agency advised investors in a separate alert on April 23 to contact their investment company immediately if they think their account has been compromised.

Plus, investors should regularly monitor investment accounts for any suspicious activity. “Look out for any changes to your account information that you do not recognize (e.g., a change to your address, phone number, e-mail address, account number, or external banking information),” the SEC said.

“You should also confirm that you authorized all of the transactions that appear in your account statements and trade confirmations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/27/2026 - 21:45

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