Virtue Gone Mad: Manager Punished More Harshly Than The Shoplifter He Stopped

Authored by Theodore Dalrymple via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

Nietzsche thought that the decline of the Christian religion in Europe would inevitably lead to a social, cultural, and moral crisis. This was because a traditional morality based upon religious belief could not be upheld once the religious belief itself weakened or was abandoned.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

This was not an original thought. The poet and essayist Matthew Arnold said much the same thing in a poem, “Dover Beach,” written in the 1840s but not published until 1867, before Nietzsche:

The Sea of Faith Was once, too, at the full, and round earth’s shore Lay like the folds of a bright girdle furled. But now I only hear Its melancholy, long, withdrawing roar...

This, thought Arnold, had the consequence that life would have no transcendent meaning. His answer to this problem was human love, the only solution to moral, social, and intellectual chaos:

Ah, love, let us be true To one another! for the world, which seems To lie before us like a land of dreams, So various, so beautiful, so new, Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain; And we are here as on a darkling plain Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.

Nietzsche’s solution was different. He didn’t approve of the old morality anyway, of compassion for the poor, kindness to strangers, and so forth, which he thought was the means, or even the ploy, by which the weak and feeble lorded it over the strong and healthy, and subdued them to the great detriment of human creativity.

He suggested instead that strong men should take life into their own hands, submit to no authority, and decide for themselves what they should do, all in the pursuit of superior creativity and Dionysian enjoyment. The strong, not the meek, would inherit the earth, and the best would rise to the top and dominate. There should, and would, be a transvaluation—a reversal—of all previously held values.

Arnold and Nietzsche were right about the decline of religious belief and the moral and intellectual confusion it would bring about. But the change in moral values that came about was not to so much the transvaluation wished for by Nietzsche as a perversion of the former values, as famously pointed out by the write G.K. Chesterton, who was far more realistic than Nietzsche, not long after Nietzsche’s death:

“The modern world is not evil; in some ways the modern world is far too good. It is full of wild and wasted virtues. When a religious scheme is shattered…, it is not merely the vices that are let loose. The vices are, indeed, let loose, and they wander and do damage. But the virtues are let loose also; and the virtues wander more wildly, and the virtues do more terrible damage. The modern world is full of the old Christian virtues gone mad. The virtues have gone mad because they have been isolated from each other and are wandering alone. Thus some scientists care for truth; and their truth is pitiless. Thus some humanitarians only care for pity; and their pity (I am sorry to say) is often untruthful.”

The truth of this is borne out by a recent case in England. Sean Egan, the manager of a supermarket store in Walsall, England, one of a large chain, who had worked for the company for all his 29 years after leaving school, was dismissed because he was involved in a physical confrontation with a prolific shoplifter in his store.

He asked the shoplifter, who had at least 100 convictions, to leave the store, whereupon the shoplifter became abusive and aggressive, spitting at Egan, who then tried to restrain him.

The shoplifter alleged that Egan had assaulted him, and the store dismissed the employee of 29 years for not having followed company policy. There was a public outcry, a public demonstration outside the store, and many people vowed never to patronize it or any of its branches again.

The company, using the kind of managerial language in which it is almost impossible to tell a straightforward truth, put out a statement:

“We have very clear guidance, procedures and controls in place to protect our colleagues and customers from the risk of harm, which must be strictly followed. These include detailed procedures for handling shoplifting incidents, which are in place to protect both the colleague involved and surrounding colleagues and customers, and which seek to de-escalate and calmly control the situation. We will not ask colleagues to put themselves at risk. As a responsible employer, our focus is entirely on taking the correct action to ensure health and safety is maintained at all times.”

In this incident, we can see that both Nietzsche and G.K. Chesterton were partly right. A debased compassion for everyone, no doubt a derivative of Christianity, in the form of an abstract concern for health and safety above all other considerations, encouraged a vice (shoplifting) to flourish while an act of heroism and obedience to duty, at a level higher than that of mere following of procedure, was reprehended and punished.

Procedure is good as a guideline, and in some instances, though not very many in everyday life, is essential—for example, in the flying of an aircraft. But where is it is bowed down to and worshipped as if it were a jealous god, it leads to a brainless formalism, gross injustice, and an absurd situation in which a man who attempts to prevent shoplifting is punished much more severely than is the shoplifter.

The shoplifter was given a sentence of 42 weeks’ imprisonment, which, since 50 percent remission in England is automatic, means 21 weeks (and the government has recently all but abolished prison sentences of less than a year). Meanwhile, the 46-year-old manager of the supermarket has lost his job in the only company for which he has ever worked and will not easily find another—or would not have done so had there not been a public outcry.

As Nietzsche might have put it, there has been a transvaluation of all values.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 19:15

Hormuz Closure 'Inflicting Enormous Impact' On Asia: Japan's PM Takaichi

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is "inflicting enormous impact" on the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Monday in somewhat dramatic remarks before the press.

Takaichi's words were issued from Canberra, on the occasion of Japan having signed agreements with Australia on critical minerals, energy security, and defense cooperation amid high-level talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Albanese in turn endorsed her assessment, stating: "Today, (we are) again facing an energy shock and global instability... Our partnership helps us secure the energy we both need."

via Associated Press

Takaichi also said in reference to the Strait of Hormuz, "We affirmed that Japan and Australia will closely communicate with each other in responding with a sense of urgency."

According to more:

Australia provides approximately one-third of Japan’s energy supplies and is the country’s largest market for liquefied natural gas. Both Canberra and Tokyo have been trying to shore up energy supplies due to the Iran war.

"Like Japan, we are very concerned by disruptions to the supply of liquid fuels and refined petroleum products," Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

“In a complex strategic environment, cooperation between Australia and Japan is essential to maintaining a peaceful, stable and prosperous region," Albanese additionally said. "Enhanced defense and security cooperation between Australia and Japan increases interoperability between our defense forces, ensuring Australia and Japan can work closely together to support regional peace and security."

Tokyo and Canberra finalized a $7 billion defense agreement just last month, and a central part of this involves Japan supplying Australia with 11 warships.

China has also suffered negative impact of its Iranian oil flows being blocked; however, Beijing is arguably in a better position to weather the storm when compared to the impact to US allies in the region.

One recent op-ed in The American Conservative argued that "While China is to some extent dependent on Gulf oil, so is the rest of Asia. While the United States might be insulated from some of the worst consequences of the Hormuz closure, the economies of our Asian allies are not."

Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi has told Australian reporters in Canberra that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is ’inflicting an ‘enormous impact’ on Asia Pacific.

She said both countries are coordinating to alleviate the crisis. pic.twitter.com/YudZXmifOe

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) May 4, 2026

It continued, "Asian economies are among the most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with South Korea receiving around 70 percent and Japan receiving a whopping 95 percent of their oil from the Middle East," and observed that "The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in 2024, 84 percent of the oil and 83 percent of LNG shipped through Hormuz were bound for Asia." The analysis concluded: "That is not a targeted squeeze. Instead, such a move looks to be made without much heed to Asia at all, hitting the very states Washington is supposedly positioning against Beijing."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:50

The COVID Playbook Returns: Energy Rationing & The Politics Of Crisis Control

Authored by Chris MacIntosh via Doug Casey's International Man,

This recent headline from New Zealand should itself send chills down your spine…

“Government reveals details of fuel crisis rationing plan – and who will be prioritized.”

Anytime the pointy shoes get to decide who will and who will not get something, you must realise that you’re about to get royally screwed.

The uncomfortable parallels between the Convid response and the proposed fuel rationing plan cannot be ignored.

On the surface, the Fuel Response Plan looks more restrained than Covid. It’s incremental, it defers to markets in early phases, and it explicitly frames escalation as a last resort. Officials are at pains to say Phases 3 and 4 are unlikely. Then again, we saw the same BS with the Covid scam. This is deliberate positioning.

The architecture of this plan is strikingly familiar…

The Structural Parallels

Escalating powers are dressed as prudent planning.

Covid began with “two weeks to flatten the curve.” The fuel plan begins with “monitor and inform.” In both cases, the framework is designed to normalise the existence of extraordinary powers before they’re used.

Phases 3 and 4 — rationing, purchasing limits, directed distribution — are legally and politically pre-legitimised by their inclusion in a published plan. The plan doesn’t just prepare for a crisis; it prepares the public to accept an intervention they haven’t yet been asked about. Most notably there is no consultation mechanism.

This is pure top-down central planning. The illusion of democracy should be well and truly shattered. Sadly, I suspect the sheep will fall for it… again.

Ministerial discretion is the operative mechanism. The Fuel Security Ministerial Oversight Group decides when to move between phases, guided by six criteria — none of which are automatic triggers. Ministers “will consider a broad range of information” and “assess the full picture.”

This is identical to the Covid Alert Level system, where Ashley Bloomfield and Jacinda Ardern effectively held unchecked discretion over the country’s movement. The criteria provide political cover, not genuine constraint. It was a smokescreen, and so is this.

Consultation theatre. Phases 3 and 4 are labelled “under consultation” — but consultation with whom, on what timeline, with what veto power?

Covid’s “consultation” with business groups and regional authorities was largely performative. There is no reason to expect this to be different.

Where It’s Actually Worse

The priority bands are socially explosive.

Band A through E create a formal hierarchy of citizens. Very undemocratic, of course — but hey, who’s asking questions? It’s a crisis, dammit.

Emergency services and defence get uncapped supply. General retail consumers are last. This is defensible in an emergency — but it also means that in a sustained disruption, ordinary people rationing school runs and commutes are subsidising the uninterrupted operation of government and defence.

During Covid, economic pain was at least notionally shared. Here, it is explicitly stratified by decree.

“Economically important services” is wide open. Band B includes “critical transport services” and “food supply and primary production during time-critical periods.” Who defines time-critical? Who decides which freight is critical? If I’m a small guy distributing food from wholesalers to local delis, do I get priority? I highly doubt it. Nope — it’s going to be like Convid. A chosen few.

This is the same stupid bureaucratic discretion grant that, under Covid, would have been used to favour large incumbents — supermarket chains, major logistics operators — while small operators fought for scraps. Nothing in this document prevents that.

No exit criteria. The plan says measures “will be lifted as soon as conditions allow.” Covid said the same.

New Zealand maintained some of the most restrictive border policies in the developed world for nearly two years. “As soon as conditions allow” means as soon as Ministers decide conditions allow — which is no constraint at all.

Where It’s Genuinely Better

Honestly, the only thing I could find in this plan that is mildly positive is there isn’t (yet) any attempt to manufacture social solidarity through emotional appeals. I suspect that’ll change, along with the inevitable propaganda.

The Core Problem

The fundamental lesson not learned from Covid is this: emergency frameworks, once built, are hard to dismantle and easy to expand.

New Zealand’s Covid apparatus — the legislation, the enforcement culture, the public health bureaucracy’s authority — outlasted any reasonable emergency by 12–18 months, and left lasting damage to civil liberties norms, small business viability, and trust in institutions.

This fuel plan creates an analogous apparatus. The ministerial group, the priority bands, the directed distribution powers — these don’t disappear when the crisis ends. They become baseline infrastructure for the next emergency, whatever it is.

Now I want to touch on something related: the steady creep of fascism we’ve seen globally. Convid was a major push in that direction, and I see the potential ideas currently floated by the pointy shoes as yet another step into that cesspool.

The Framing Question

Most commentary will describe this plan as pragmatic emergency management. That framing should be rejected immediately.

Emergency frameworks are not politically neutral. They encode assumptions about who owns resources, who allocates them, who gets protected, and who bears the cost.

When you map the fuel plan’s architecture against economic models honestly, the result is uncomfortable.

Economic Fascism Is the Model

Economic fascism, stripped of its wartime aesthetic, is a specific and coherent system: private ownership is preserved in form, but the state directs resource allocation, sets priorities, and determines winners and losers.

The large private firm and the state apparatus become functionally indistinguishable. Property rights exist on paper while operational autonomy does not.

Let’s map that against the proposed fuel plan…

• Fuel companies retain ownership of their infrastructure and stocks — but government directs who they supply, in what priority, under what conditions.
• Industry “coordination” is the mechanism, meaning large incumbents with government relationships are at the table; small operators are not.
• Crony capitalism is taken to a new level.
• The priority bands — Band A through E — are not market outcomes. They are state-directed allocation dressed up in administrative language.

This is not a market. It is directed private enterprise — which is the operational definition of economic fascism.

The Middle Class Obliteration Mechanism

Remember Covid measures? The middle class got raped — most still don’t even know it … they just realise they’re poorer than before.

The “priority bands” tell you everything. Let’s work through them:

• Band A: Government, defence, courts, corrections, hospitals. The state itself, fully protected. Surprise, surprise.
• Band B: Large logistics operators, supermarket supply chains, international aviation. These are not small businesses. These are large corporates with existing government relationships. Keep in mind Air New Zealand was partly nationalised during Convid. That it has lost money every year since is no surprise and entirely ignored. I expect in this ensuing crisis we’ll see more state ownership take place. Public-private partnerships is how it’ll be sold to the peasants.
• Band C: Public transport, essential infrastructure. Again, largely state-owned or state-contracted entities.
• Band D: “All other commercial and business fuel uses.” This is where the small business owner, the tradesman, the independent courier, the rural contractor sits. They are fourth in line, behind the state and its preferred corporate partners.
• Band E: General retail. The ordinary citizen. Last.

The middle class — small business owners, independent operators, tradespeople, rural producers outside “time-critical” periods — get what’s left after the state and its large corporate partners have filled their stomachs and wallets. This is not an accident of design. It is the design.

The Ideological Laundering

What makes this particularly effective as a system is that it operates entirely within the language of liberal democracy. There is no ostensibly visible expropriation. There is no nationalisation. Property rights are seen to be formally respected. The language is technocratic — “assessment criteria,” “ministerial oversight,” “phase transitions.”

But the functional outcome — state-directed resource allocation favouring large corporates and government entities, with the small business owner and individual citizen at the back of the queue — is indistinguishable from what you would design if you were deliberately trying to hollow out the economic middle.

The Conclusion Nobody Will Print

The fuel plan is not a fascist document. It is not even a particularly radical one by contemporary standards. That is precisely what makes it worth scrutinising carefully.

It is the latest iteration of a governance model that has been quietly consolidating for decades: the state and large capital as co-administrators of the economy, with small business and the individual citizen positioned as residual claimants on whatever resources remain after the primary beneficiaries have been served.

Call it economic fascism, corporate statism, or crony capitalism — the label matters less than the mechanism. And the mechanism is, once again, hiding in plain sight inside a document described as emergency planning.

Editor’s Note: If Chris is right, the fuel plan is not just about energy. It is another warning sign that governments are preparing to manage future crises by controlling access, rationing resources, and deciding who gets protected first. That has serious implications for your money, your freedom, and how you prepare. To better understand the economic, political, and cultural forces now colliding — and what you could do to stay one step ahead — read our special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time.

Read the special report here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:25

Japan Says It Counts Three Consecutive Days Of FX Intervention As One

Earlier today we joked when, after the third intervention attempt by Japan's MOF/BOJ, the yen promptly sold off again as Japanese officials continued to sink billions of dollars into what has become bottomless monetary pit (ignoring for a second the lunacy of spending dollars to strengthen your currency while at the same time printing yet), one which gets bigger every day the BOJ refuses to simply raise interest rates. 

BOJ interventions working out great pic.twitter.com/qsD2f4gTnw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2026

So perhaps realizing the futility of their now daily interventions, which are taking place precisely at a time that is meant to to take advantage of the low domestic FX liquidity thanks to the Golden Week holiday, a Japanese Finance Ministry official on Monday cited a rule saying that three days of intervention count as a single operation. Even if Japan is on a public holiday, intervention can still be counted if global markets are open, the Finance Ministry person said. Based on this, May 4 would be considered the third consecutive day from April 30, the official added.

Japan was referring to International Monetary Fund fine print, which considers three consecutive business days of exchange-market intervention as a single episode, the official told reporters. The comments came after the yen rose following a reported intervention on Thursday, yet fell after each of the subsequent two interventions on Friday and Monday.

Furthermore, the IMF rules state that up to three such episodes within six months is consistent with a free-floating exchange rate regime, said the official, who accompanied Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to an international conference in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. But if Japan's interventions exceed three such occasions, the IMF tends to classify it as a floating - rather than free-floating - exchange-rate regime.

The comments came as the yen strengthened for three straight days, fueling speculation that authorities intervened in the currency market on consecutive business days, as they did in 2024 (See "Japan's Double Yen Intervention, As Seen Through 10 Charts From Goldman's FX Desk").

Japan intervened on Thursday after the yen weakened to 160.72 against the dollar, before surging to 155 and then resuming its slide. A Bloomberg analysis suggested authorities spent about $34.5 billion to support the currency on Thursday. The likely spent another $20 billion in the ensuing two interventions. 

Katayama reiterated on Monday that the government stands ready to take bold action against speculative currency moves, in line with a US-Japan agreement reached last year. Such action typically refers to currency intervention to support the yen.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 18:00

High-Intensity Beams, Not Whispers: Study Suggests Aliens Would Send Strong Signals

Authored by Rupendra Brahambhatt via Interesting Engineering,

For more than half a century, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence has been built on the assumption that if aliens exist and try to communicate, their signals will be faint, scattered, and easy to miss. 

An alien doll.James Bat Barrera/Pexels

So astronomers have spent decades scanning narrow slices of the radio spectrum, hoping to catch a weak signal buried in cosmic noise. However, a new study suggests something totally different-if an advanced civilization actually wanted to be noticed, it would not broadcast weak, unfocused emissions. 

It would do the opposite - concentrate its power into tightly aimed, high-intensity beams directed at specific targets. 

“Our principal assumption is that a purposely communicative technological civilization will do its technological best to establish communication with other extraterrestrial technological intelligences (ETIs),” Benjamin Zuckerman, study author and an astrophysicist from the University of California, Los Angeles, said.

If this idea is even roughly right, then the silence in our data is not just a lack of evidence. It actually limits how many nearby civilizations could be sending signals we could detect.

From faint radio traces to laser-like beams

The traditional logic behind SETI comes from a simple constraint-interstellar communication is hard. If a civilization has limited power, the most efficient strategy is to broadcast in all directions. 

However, this makes any signal extremely weak by the time it reaches another star. This is why SETI searches have focused on extremely narrow frequency bands.

“Radio search programs have employed very narrow (few Hz) bandwidths (BWs)-because, if an ETI has a given (limited) amount of power to transmit, then the way to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio at the receiving antenna is to use very narrow transmission and reception BWs,” Zuckerman notes.

The difficulty is that no one knows which frequency to listen to, so even decades of work have covered only a tiny fraction of possibilities.

The study challenges this assumption directly. It suggests that aliens capable of interstellar technology would not necessarily choose inefficiency. So instead of broadcasting isotropically like a dim bulb, it could use highly directional transmission systems, more like a laser pointer than a lamp.

Power is not the constraint

Detectability depends less on total power and more on direction-whether Earth happens to lie inside the beam. So, power is no longer the limiting factor. Even a system drawing on the order of 60 megawatts could generate a signal that, if correctly aimed at Earth, would stand out dramatically above cosmic background noise.

For instance, at distances of roughly 200 parsecs, such a directed signal could appear with a strength of around 10¹⁰ Jansky. For comparison, modern radio telescopes can detect signals down to about 1 Jansky. 

In simple words, a well-aimed transmission would not be subtle - it would be obvious in routine astronomical data.

“The most uncertain factor in our communication with a nearby ETI will not be power starvation, but rather the wavelength of transmission; this may be radio, infrared, or optical,” Zuckerman said

This could also mean that we may already have observed such signals without recognizing them. Large-scale sky surveys, conducted over the past century for entirely different scientific purposes, have already scanned vast regions of the sky with sufficient sensitivity. Yet none have reported persistent, anomalous emissions from nearby Sun-like stars.

A quiet solar neighborhood, measured in missed encounters

To turn this idea into a constraint, Zuckerman builds a conservative model of where communicative civilizations might exist. The starting point is simple. Life as we know it requires liquid water, limiting potential habitats to planets in the habitable zones of their stars.

However, technological intelligence takes time to emerge-on Earth, roughly 4.5 billion years. This means only older, stable, Sun-like stars are realistic candidates. Within a sphere of about 200 parsecs, there are roughly 500,000 Sun-like stars. 

Of these, about 200,000 are old enough to potentially host advanced life. Statistical estimates suggest that around 60,000 of them could host habitable planets.

An advanced civilization would not need to search blindly. With sufficiently powerful telescopes, it could identify which of these planets show signs of life, then further narrow its focus to worlds with Earth-like conditions-oceans, continents, and long-term climate stability.

At that point, communication becomes targeted rather than universal. A civilization might direct signals toward only a few hundred carefully selected worlds. From our perspective, detecting such a signal would require monitoring many stars-but if even a single nearby civilization were actively communicating, its signal should stand out in existing data.

Even slow interstellar probes, traveling at just 1% of the speed of light, could reach us in about 10,000 years-an extremely short timescale in cosmic terms.

“The absence of evidence for alien probes in the solar system suggests that no alien civilization has passed within ∼100 lt-yr of Earth during the past few billion years,” Zuckerman notes.

The silence is no longer just silence

Taken together, the absence of both signals and physical visitation leads to a more quantitative conclusion than SETI has traditionally offered. Rather than implying ignorance, the silence becomes a constraint.

It suggests that technologically communicative civilizations are either extremely rare in our region of the galaxy or not actively attempting to communicate in ways we can detect.

According to Zuckerman’s study, the number of civilizations in the Milky Way that are both technologically advanced and actively transmitting may be fewer than 100,000-and possibly closer to 10,000.

However, these numbers come with important boundaries. “The limits to be derived apply only to ETIs that are doing their technological best to establish communication with other technological species in their vicinity,” the study notes.

So they apply only to civilizations using electromagnetic communication and deliberately attempting contact. A species that communicates differently-or chooses not to broadcast at all-would remain invisible to this approach.

SETI programs should change

The implication of this study is not that the search should stop, but that it should change. Instead of focusing narrowly on tiny frequency bands, future surveys may need to examine broader wavelength ranges across large populations of nearby, Sun-like stars. 

The goal would not just be to listen more carefully-but to search more completely. Such efforts could either tighten the limits further or finally reveal a signal that has been sitting in existing data all along.

“Thus, search programs should aim to cover as much of the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum as possible-this is very difficult to do with currently designed radio SETI programs.”

The study is published in The Astrophysical Journal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 17:40

Treasury Boost Quarterly Borrowing Estimate To $189BN: Full Quarterly Refunding Preview

The US Department hiked its estimates for US debt borrowing in the current quarter, citing lower net cash flows.

In a statement published today, and ahead of Wednesday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, the US Treasury said that it now expects to borrow $189 billion in net debt for the current quarter, up ~$80 billion from the $109 billion it had forecast in February. The estimate assumes a June quarter-end cash balance of $900 billion, the same as the prior forecast. 

According to the Treasury, the borrowing estimate is $80 billion higher than announced in February 2026, primarily due to lower projected net cash flows (i.e., lower tax receipts), partially offset by the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance (the cash balance at the start of the quarter was $893 billion, higher than the $850 billion estimated in February).

Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $122 billion higher than announced in February.

During the January–March 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $577 billion and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $893 billion. In February 2026, Treasury estimated borrowing of $574 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion.The $3 billion in higher borrowing resulted primarily from the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by higher net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $40 billion lower than announced in February. 

The Treasury last month slashed its issuance of Treasury bills in anticipation of a wave of US tax receipts due April 15. It has since started increasing the sizes of its shortest-dated bill auctions, beginning with the six-week tenor

Looking ahead, Treasury expects to borrow $671 billion, targeting a $50 billion increase in end-September cash balance to $950 billion. While it may sound like a lot, the third calendar quarter of the year traditionally has the biggest borrowing needs (in 2025 the US borrowed $1.058 trillion in Q3, $762 billion in 2024, $1.01 trillion in 2023, etc).

Looking beyond the near term, Deutsche Bank's base-case deficit outlook for FY2026 – FY2028 is modestly smaller than projected three months ago, driven by expectations for stronger economic growth. The bank's economists now forecast deficits of:

• FY2026: $2,068bn ($50bn smaller)
• FY2027: $2,137bn ($77bn smaller)
• FY2028: $2,255bn ($230bn smaller)

However, DB's high-estimate scenario, which assumes passage of the Department of Defense budget proposal, implies materially wider deficits versus the base case. Under this scenario, to which DB only assigns 35% odds, deficits would rise by:

• FY2026: ~$200bn
• FY2027: ~$300bn
• FY2028: ~$100bn

Regarding the repayment of IEEPA tariffs, DB assumes total payments of $175bn over the next three years. Given the relatively manageable size, as well as uncertainty around the timing and pace of payments, Treasury will likely address them through increased bill issuance rather bringing forward its coupon increases.

• FY2026: ~$50bn
• FY2027: ~$100bn
• FY2028: ~$25bn  

Today's Treasury announcement of Marketable Borrowing Estimates always precedes the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which is scheduled for this Wednesday at 8:30am. Here is a preview of what to expect courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

• Treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on coupon auction sizes at this refunding announcement. A possible change would be dropping “at least” while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over “the next several quarters”. Accordingly, DB now expects nominal coupon increases beginning in February 2027.
• For buybacks, DB expects $38bn in liquidity-support operations targeting off-the-run securities. In addition, the bank sees up to $25bn of purchases in 1-month to 2-year for cash management around the June corporate tax date. Treasury will likely evaluate and announce new size increases along with any technical adjustments at the next refunding in August.
• Treasury yields have generally risen, and swap spreads have tightened following four consecutive refunding announcements. Given DB's slight bearish bias on duration and medium-term preference for wider spreads, the German bank recommends establishing shorts ahead of the QRA and using any post-announcement pullback in spreads to re-enter wideners.

Let's take a closer look at each of these, starting with...

Coupon and TIPS financing

In line with Treasury’s gradual and incremental approach to soften its forward guidance around coupon sizes in recent refunding announcements, DB's Steven Zeng expects a further modest adjustment to the statement language in the May refunding.  In February, Treasury stated:

“Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters. Treasury is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector. Looking ahead, Treasury continues to evaluate potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles.”

A possible change would be removing “at least” from the statement while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over the “next several quarters”. This would suggest that the shelf life of the current guidance is shortening and that the window for coupon increases is drawing nearer. Accordingly, DB now expects nominal coupon increases to be announced at the February 2027 refunding. Tentative auction size estimates are shown in the table below

For TIPS, DB expects auction sizes to remain unchanged relative to the most recent auction cycle, with $19bn 10-year TIPS reopening in May, $24bn 5-year TIPS reopening in June, and $21bn 10-year TIPS new issue in July. 

Bill issuance

Zeng expects small increases in short-dated bill sizes to be announced next week, leaving net bill supply modestly positive beginning mid-May through early June. The strategist also tentatively expects the 52-week bill auction to rise by $2bn to $52bn. In early June, he projects reductions in bill sizes ahead of the June 15th corporate tax date. Then, a series of larger increases will be implemented in July, leaving bill supply to rise more rapidly during late summer months. The forecast for net bill issuance in the April-June quarter is -$200bn, and in the July-September quarter is +$382bn. Estimates of bill auction sizes and weekly net issuance is shown in the table below. 

For calendar year 2026, DB's current forecast for net bill issuance is $813bn, roughly $50bn higher than the forecast provided three months ago. However, after subtracting Fed purchases and short-end buybacks (which reduce the supply of bill-like coupon securities), the estimated residual supply to private investors is only $176bn. 

Buybacks

Zeng expects $38bn in liquidity-support buybacks targeting off-the-run securities to be announced for the May-July period. Separately, he also expects up to $25bn of purchases in the 1-month to 2-year sector for cash-management purposes to be scheduled around the June corporate tax date. These combined purchases are consistent with the increased operation sizes announced last August, and together they imply roughly $150bn in liquidity-support and $150bn in cash-management operations for the full year. In addition, Treasury could unveil new details on potential buyback enhancements. Treasury previously explored yield-spread bidding and debtswitch operations in the February refunding. However, implementation likely involves time and plenty of advanced notice, so the bank does not expect any actual changes will be announced at this refunding. Treasury will likely evaluate and announce new size increases along with any technical adjustments to buybacks at the next refunding in August. 

Dealer Discussion topics

In the primary dealer questionnaire, Treasury sought views on how changes in bank regulation are affecting demand and liquidity in the Treasury market. It also asked dealers for feedback on changing floating-rate note (FRN) maturity dates, so they fall on a business day. DB's responses to both questions are summarized below.

Bank regulation reform

The easing of eSLR last year likely had a positive effect on Treasury demand and market liquidity, although other market structure changes and monetary policy initiatives (for example, the removal of Wells Fargo’s asset cap and the Fed’s reserve management purchases) make it difficult to observe the effect of eSLR alone.

Broadly speaking, the new eSLR calculation enables dealers to hold more Treasuries on balance sheet, which is supported by the weekly Fed data of dealer net positions which has shown a substantial increase since the rule change. Reduced eSLR constraints also make dealers more likely to engage in swap spread trades directly or facilitate them for clients, which increases demand for Treasuries and resulted in wider swap spreads. On the flip side, these activities lead to crowded positioning and thereby increases the risk of large price changes during volatility shocks. 

Bank capital rules proposed in March could add to demand for Treasuries at the margin, though likely less impactful than the eSLR easing. Banks with freed-up capital can deploy them into Treasuries, although broader credit demand in the economy may ultimately determine whether banks expand into securities or loans. The GSIB surcharge proposal appears particularly beneficial for dealer banks with balance-sheet intensive business models and a low RWA base, which helps increase overall market-making capacity. 

Potential regulatory changes aimed at reducing bank liquidity requirements, such as adjustments to Internal Liquidity Stress Testing (ILST), discount window reform, or adding a liquidity saving mechanism (LSM) to the Fed’s payment system, could allow banks to reallocate reserves into repo or securities, further supporting Treasury demand and market liquidity. 

FRN maturity date

For FRNs that do not mature on a business day, the lack of accrued interest is a major concern for 2a7 investors. As a result, many 2a7 funds sell such securities back to the dealers as the maturity month approaches, which add pressure to dealer balance sheets. Treasury should therefore consider changing stated maturity dates for FRNs, so they always occur on a business day. DB does not see the same need for non-FRN securities, which generally have a broader and more diversified investor base that is less affected by this issue. The primary benefit would be stronger FRN liquidity and reduced need for dealers to warehouse affected securities on their balance sheet. A potential drawback would be increased fragmentation between FRNs and other Treasury securities, potentially resulting in similar but not identical maturity dates leading to pricing distortions in the front end of the curve. 

Market reaction around QRA

In recent quarterly refunding announcements, Treasury yields have generally risen, and swap spreads have narrowed in response. While that reaction is not fully justified, it could reflect investor disappointment on Treasury not delivering a more market-friendly outcome. (expectations for long-end coupon size cuts and more explicit use of buybacks as a WAM management tool are extremely unlikely.) Given that Treasury will continue to loosen its guidance around coupon issuance sizes, the market could initially interpret any change to its statement as a negative. Given DB's modestly bearish outlook on duration, the bank recommends using the refunding announcement to set up for shorts. Conversely, as DB holds a medium-term preference for wider swap spreads, the bank would look to use any post-announcement pullback in spreads as an opportunity to re-enter wideners. 

More in the full DB note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 17:20

All's Not So Quiet On Any Front

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Project Freedom. Cute move! Notice that it’s not Operation Freedom. That would frame it as a military move.

The President is tactically framing this as a humanitarian action. Mr. Trump has advised Congress as of May 1 that hostilities with Iran (Operation Epic Fury) are terminated, at the 60-day limit of the War Powers Resolution. Commercial ships from countries not involved in the Iran / US dispute will now get escorted safely through the Strait of Hormuz by US naval vessels.

(Later amended by CENTCOM, around 9a.m. Monday as being protected by US Navy vessels “in the vicinity.”)

Any attack on these ships by Iran would prompt a forceful response and trigger a re-wind of the clock on the War Powers Resolution (WPR), meaning, another sixty days to conduct military operations, such as the destruction of key bridges and electric power plants promised earlier. Iran’s leadership — whoever that is — thought it could juke Mr. Trump on the 60-day deadline by stalling negotiations while it reorganized its remaining missile launchers. Tactical fail. Incidentally, the Supreme Court has never directly ruled on the WPR’s constitutionality or enforced the 60-day limit.

Also, by the way, the “neutral and innocent bystanders” designation means that oil tankers from Kuwait, the Emirate states, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will be given safe escorts out of the Persian Gulf. That will have two effects: 1) avert the “shutting-in” of their productive oil wells (and the prospective geological damage to the oil fields); and 2) alleviate the price pressure on oil generally with new supply reentering the global oil market.

You can conclude that this “project” will bring new pressure on the “whoevers” running Iran to stop shucking and jiving about how this thing ends — which is them surrendering the 1000-pounds of 60-percent enriched uranium stashed somewhere on their premises. Of course, coming to terms on the nuclear bomb-making issue would allow Iran the possibility of becoming, once more, a normal advanced industrial modern nation, should it also decide to eschew the rule of the mullahs and their psychotic minions in the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). But that remains to be seen.

The other major project underway is on the domestic US scene: the much-needed severe beat-down of the so-called Democratic Party that has become captive to seditionists, overt communists, racketeers, and jihadis.

DOJ prosecutions of color revolutionaries accelerate under Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. James Comey finally has to account for his “86 / 47” seashell prank in a Carolina federal court while a long-dormant case was revived in the Eastern District of Virginia of Comey having used Columbia prof Daniel Richman as a cut-out to leak classified information to the press at the inception of RussiaGate, 2017.

Nobody knows exactly what’s going down in the Southern District of Florida these days (no leaks) where a grand Jury was convened in January to hear evidence in the RussiaGate matter including the years’ long train of organized seditions aimed at bum-rushing Mr. Trump out of the Oval Office in his first term, plus the mounting of various other operations (2020 election-rigging, the J-6 “Fedsurrection,” and maliciously fake serial prosecutions) aimed at stuffing him in prison at the end of that term.

All this is being treated as a “grand conspiracy” involving scores of agency officials and lawfare ninjas operating in the penumbra at the edge of government.

Do not be surprised when rafts of indictments come out of the Fort Pierce, Florida, grand jury, probably in bunches, each bunch dedicated to a particular phase or operation.

Characters such as former President Barack Obama, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Senator Adam Schiff (D-CS), CIA-agent Eric Ciaramella, legal tacticians Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Mary McCord, Andrew Weissmann, crooked member of the Senate Intel Committee Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), and former CIA Directors Brennan with former DNI James Clapper, were involved in multiple seditions and possible treasons. Supporting actors such as the tag-team of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, former Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, former AG Merrick Garland, former Deputy AG Lisa Monaco, former Sec’y of State Hillary Clinton, “Joe Biden” autopen operators Jake Sullivan, Mike Donlon, Steve Richetti, Anita Dunn, Neera Tanden, former Sec’y of State Antony Blinken, and Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice, are probably in the mix somewhere, too.

The trials that come out of all this action will be mighty interesting shows. What they will show is what an absolutely criminal organization the Democratic Party became sometime during Barack Obama’s second term, and how each criminal act since then has provoked further criminal acts in the attempt to cover-up the train of crime.

On top of that, you see the first glimmers of action against the villains behind the Covid-19 operation, which was used as an additional instrument of sedition to eject President Trump from office with mail-in ballot fraud.

That was the eventual outcome anyway, though it appears that Anthony Fauci’s NIAID agency was subcontracting out the development of this disease at least a decade earlier. And now, Dr. Fauci’s chief advisor, David Morens, is indicted on extremely serious charges including conspiracy against the United States, destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in federal investigations (multiple counts), and concealment, removal, or mutilation of records (multiple counts).

This is serious business. It is likely to lead to Dr. Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx, and other public health officials who ran a dastardly number on the citizens of this land. Be advised: the autopen pardons of “Joe Biden” will be tested in court.

While all this goes on in the months ahead, don’t underestimate what is liable to emerge from the ongoing FBI investigations into massive social service and health service fraud by the Democratic Party in its Blue State strongholds.

It is going to get very ugly. A governor or two (or three, or more) could be slammed with indictments for colluding to conceal vast episodes of organized grift.

All that. . . and then the SCOTUS decision striking down Congressional redistricting along racial lines — probably leading to the loss of up to ten Democratic seats in the House later this year.

Ouch! That one is really going to sting.

So, if you happen to believe that the concluding scenes of Operation Epic Fury in Iran will somehow work to advantage the Democratic party to sweep the midterm elections, better rethink your strategery (as George W. Bush liked to style the art of political warfare).

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 16:20

Welfare Enrollment Drops Sharply Following New Federal Work Requirements

Via American Greatness,

Enrollment in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has declined significantly since new federal work requirements took effect in mid-2025, with millions fewer Americans receiving benefits, according to newly reported federal data.

The number of people enrolled in SNAP has fallen by roughly 3.5 million since July 2025, dropping from an average of 42.1 million participants in the prior fiscal year to about 38.5 million as of January 2026, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.

The decline follows the implementation of expanded eligibility rules included in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” signed into law by Donald Trump on July 4, 2025.

The legislation broadened existing work requirements for able-bodied adults, mandating that individuals between the ages of 18 and 64 without young dependents participate in at least 80 hours per month of work, volunteering, or government-run programs.

Previously, the requirements applied to a narrower age group and included different criteria for dependents, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees SNAP. Officials told The Wall Street Journal that the recent changes represent the most sweeping adjustments to the program in decades.

Under the updated policy, eligibility restrictions have also tightened for some categories of legal immigrants. Federal law has long barred undocumented immigrants from receiving SNAP benefits.

Data compiled by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities shows that nearly every state has experienced a decline since the policy took effect.

Alaska, Hawaii, and Kentucky are exceptions, each reporting modest increases.

Meanwhile, SNAP participation in Guam has risen sharply, while Puerto Rico operates under a separate nutrition assistance program.

Several states, including Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee, have reported double-digit percentage declines. In response, some state officials have begun efforts to connect affected residents with employment and volunteer opportunities to help them meet the new requirements.

Arizona has seen the steepest drop, with participation falling by more than half.

According to state data, more than 424,000 fewer residents are receiving benefits, including approximately 181,000 children. State officials attributed much of the decline to the rapid implementation of the new federal rules.

“The expanded work requirements were primarily responsible for the drop,” Brett Bezio, a spokesman for Arizona’s Department of Economic Security, told The Wall Street Journal.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 15:00

Trump Renews Call For Israel To Pardon Teflon Bibi, The "Wartime Prime Minister"

President Trump has renewed US pressure on some Israeli government decision-makers to grant a pardon to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he's still battling multiple corruption charges, at a moment he has ordered the armed forces to be engaged in several fronts, including in Lebanon. 

Trump told the Israeli outlet Kan News on Sunday, "Tell your president to pardon Bibi. He's a wartime prime minister. They wouldn’t have Israel if it wasn’t for me and Bibi in that order. You want to have a PM that can focus on the war, not focus on nonsense."

via Reuters

Trump interestingly tried to flip the script with this statement, at a moment some conservative 'influencers' have increasingly attacked the White House for falling too much under Israeli influence. 

But the US President is here saying the White House controls the narrative on Israel and its fate, not the other way around. And yet it also clearly affirms the airtight relationship, at a moment US naval forces are bogged down in trying to open back up the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is directing his request to pardon Netanyahu to the only top official with the power to make it happen - Israel's President Issac Herzog.

"I like the guy, Herzog," Trump said in the fresh remarks. "He will be a national hero if he gives Bibi a pardon. I will very much appreciate it." Trump has also long charged that this is a "witch hunt" by Bibi's enemies.

Netanyahu has long been accused, even within Israel, of seeking to prolong Israel's 'multi-front' wars in order to permanently delay the corruption trial and ensure his time in power is extended.

The trial focuses on three corruption cases - including charges of fraud and breach of trust, as well as charges of bribery.

The allegations range from illegally receiving expensive gifts based on political favors, to quid pro quo agreements with some Israeli media sources for more favorable coverage, to authorizing telecom-related regulatory decisions to benefit friends and allies.

In the meantime, Herzog says he does not plan to make a decision before ongoing negotiations with Netanyahu's legal team have reached conclusion. An October election loss for Netanyahu's Likud party means he could actually face jail time.

//--> //--> //--> Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 47% · No 54%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

However, he's long been called 'Teflon Bibi' for his ability to dodge major political bullets over the years and decades, while staying in power as the country's longest serving prime minister.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 14:40

Deutsche Bank's Woke ESG Whistleblower Denied Millions By SEC For Tattling To Press

In 2021, Deutsche Bank sustainability chief Desiree Fixler thought she was going to make millions after she blew the whistle with claims that the bank did not adhere to its goal of integrating ESG (environmental, social and governance) into all investment decisions. Fixler - who worked within the bank's DWS Group asset management arm - became a witness for the SEC, which fined the bank's asset-management arm $19 million in 2023.

And had she actually gotten the SEC reward of 10% - 30%, it would have amounted to millions... 

Desiree Fixler, former sustainability chief at DWS, poses for virtuous whistleblower PR in 2021. She's looking off into the distance imagining how she'll spend the reward money. 

...however, because Fixler (who was fired) ran to the Wall Street Journal before the SEC, they denied her a payout. 

The Wall Street Journal previously reported Fixler’s concerns about Deutsche Bank’s ESG business in an August 2021 article.

DWS misled investors about how it integrated ESG criteria into its investing process, Fixler told the Journal. DWS told clients that every investment team used ESG factors to make decisions. But she found a case in which Wirecard AG, a German payments-service provider that went bankrupt in a fraud scandal, ended up in an actively managed ESG fund, which was supposed to promote companies with good governance. 

She filed a complaint with the SEC three days after The Journal’s article appeared. She later spent over 100 hours walking the commission’s staff through Deutsche Bank’s ESG program and how investment firms screen for ESG risks in public companies, she said in an interview. 

The SEC acknowledged in an order denying Fixler’s award request that it opened its investigation based on her statements to the Journal. But it didn’t consider her cooperation to be “voluntary” because she didn’t approach the SEC first. -WSJ

"Where a claimant provides information to a media outlet, and commission staff learn of the allegations from the media outlet, a claimant has not provided the commission with information," the SEC wrote. 

Fixler and her lawyer, Stephen Kohn, say the SEC's definition of "voluntary" does not comport with a plain-English meaning of the term, and discourages whistleblowers from using traditional methods of spreading concerns about wrongdoing - the media. 

"This is a warning shot to every whistleblower who thinks about going to the press," said Fixler. 

Maybe she can escort kids to the Hunger Games to make ends meet when ESG finishes destroying the global economy?

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 14:00

Largest Viking Age Coin Hoard Ever Found In Norway Shocks Archaeologists

Authored by Maria Mocerino,

Hailed as a “historic discovery,” metal detectorists led archaeologists to the largest Viking Age hoard of silver coins ever to be found in Norway, reflecting the Vikings’ extensive network and a pivotal turning point in Norway’s history.

The largest coin hoard in Norwegian history.Innlandet County Council

On April 10, metal detectorists Vegard Sørlie and Rune Sætre uncovered 19 silver coins that quickly turned into an astonishing treasure when archaeologists rushed to the site. The number of coins grew exponentially—initially to 70, then to 500, and eventually to over 1,000.

Archaeologist May-Tove Smiseth described the find, named the “Mørstad Hoard,” as “a once-in-a-lifetime” discovery that surpassed all expectations. Currently, the hoard contains between 2,970 and 3,150 pieces, and archaeologists are still on-site, expecting to unearth even more coins.

Beyond their value as currency and historical artifacts, these coins tell the story of a country transitioning between the 980s and the 1040s, a time when foreign currency dominated and Norway would establish its own mint.

On the brink of a national Norwegian mint

Described as “a national and international event,” the discovery has stunned archaeologists, who call it “absolutely fantastic.”

“Few things are as exciting as the Viking Age in Norway.”

A coin from the Mørstad hoard near Rena showing a kings head in profile. The inscription includes the king’s name: EDELRED. Credit: May-Tove Smiseth, Innlandet County Council

The hoard has inspired archaeologists. “This is a truly unique discovery that you may only expect once in your career.” This is it. For archaeologists, this is the Oscar Award of coin hoards.

This coin hoard, “without parallel,” was located in a field near Rena, in Innlandet County. Boasting an “unbelievable” assortment of coins, they provide an exciting snapshot of the country’s economy at a time of deep political shift.

Experts from the Museum of Cultural History in Oslo have examined the coins and found that most are of English and German origin, with some Danish and Norwegian coins among them.

The presence of English and German coins in a Viking hoard raises intriguing questions: why were these foreign coins found in Norway? Principally.

The hoard dates between the 980s and the 1040s. It reflects a peak in Viking power; the “Second Viking Age” encompasses the late 10th and the early 11th centuries. This silver captures this era.

Most of these were minted under Cnut the Great (the height of Viking power), Æthelred II, Otto III, and others. But Harald Hardrada, also represented in this stash, presumably tossed aside as just too much cash, would replace the foreign entities with one currency. He established a national mint.

So the find is exceptional, as a living, breathing, moving history.

How many coins will they find?

Archaeologists continue to beam with excitement, “truly.”

“Being present when something like this comes to light is simply a great experience, both professionally and personally,” says archaeologist and senior advisor at Innlandet County Council, May-Tove Smiseth, in a press release.

They are still conducting investigations onsite, expecting to find more of these “capital stashes,” as iron was minted in this region and then exported to Europe, so they were found in an industrial center.

This hoard doesn’t appear to belong to an individual, also distinguishing it from the hoards that tend to surface. It does not reflect the wealth of an affluent individual but rather the state, government, or ruling body. Iron production was booming.

Archaeologists from the Innlandet County Authority and detectorists have collaborated on the find and have been in close dialogue with the Museum of Cultural History and the Directorate for Cultural Heritage.
Innlandet County Authority

Speechless and overjoyed, archaeologists are officially guarding the area, having blocked all access until they complete their investigations. They are even singing the praises of the two metal detectorists.

“What makes this even more gratifying is the way the find has been handled.”

These two pioneering enthusiasts had taken the courses that the county offers to detectorists. They followed the necessary protocol to ensure that this priceless history would fall into the right hands.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 13:40

A Property Tax Rebellion Is Emerging In America

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

At a petition table inside a Cleveland area gun show on a drizzly Saturday afternoon, citizens talk of an American Dream derailed.

There’s the elderly couple who paid off their mortgage decades ago but can’t afford the property taxes on their home. Their local government, theoretically, can seize the property and auction it off to someone else if the annual bills remain unpaid.

Then there’s the recent retiree who took a part-time job at Lowe’s to pay property taxes on his rental property and avoid raising his tenants’ rent.  

Add empty nesters who can’t downsize to smaller houses because interest rates are too high,  farmers describing an impossible situation, and recent college graduates groaning about moving further away from home to an affordable place.

Show goers, guns and ammo in hand, pause at Beth Blackmarr’s table on their way out and share with her those concerns.

If 413,000 residents throughout the Buckeye State sign a petition before July 1, a public vote to eliminate local property taxes will appear on the November ballot.

If the signature count falls short, whatever is collected can be applied the following year, or however long it takes, said Blackmarr, media coordinator and a main volunteer for the 3,000-plus member Citizens for Property Tax Reform group.

“We are really hurting in Ohio,” she told The Epoch Times. “People never thought they’d be in this situation.”

Beth Blackmarr, a volunteer with Ohio-based Citizens for Property Tax Reform, organizes forms during a petition drive at a gun show near Cleveland on April 25, 2026. The group is seeking enough signatures to place a measure eliminating local property taxes on the November ballot. Aaron Gifford/The Epoch Times

Ohio isn’t alone. Forty-six states and the District of Columbia already have limits on annual local property tax levy increases, and leaders in Florida and Texas are pursuing additional legislation to limit government “flexibility” in how it raises revenues, according to a September report from McKinsey and Co., a global management consulting firm whose clients include state and local governments.

Schools, already strapped for cash, hang in the balance. School districts struggle with declining student enrollment, unfunded mandates, state and federal aid loss largely due to skyrocketing Medicaid costs, and spiking employee health insurance costs.

On the local level, mayors and town boards face similar challenges as they try to continue providing public safety, utilities, and infrastructure services.

Fed-up homeowners say it’s high time to try another way to pay their community’s civil servants, perhaps through higher sales tax or state income tax rates, along with slashing administrative bloat in schools and city halls.

“Let the state find a way where 100 percent of the population pays for education,” Ron Shumate, one of Blackmarr’s volunteers from suburban Cincinnati, told The Epoch Times. “They give profit-making businesses a break, but not us.”

Ron Shumate, 83, a resident and homeowner of Springfield Township in Hamilton County, Ohio, on April 21, 2026. Shumate, a volunteer with Blackmarr’s group, helps to collect signatures to place a measure abolishing property taxes on the ballot. Glenn Hartong for The Epoch Times

Across States and Communities

In Massachusetts, a citizens group in Great Barrington, near Springfield, wants to shift more of the costs for schools and local infrastructure to part-time residents who own vacation homes. If All Band Together gets its way, the current annual property tax on a full-time residence assessed at $200,000, for example, would decrease by $1,293, while the amount for a seasonal home with the same assessment would increase by $356, according to the group’s website.

In Minnesota and North Dakota, Republican lawmakers have proposed a cap on property tax increases based on the rate of inflation and population growth. If the rate of inflation is 3 percent and the population of a community grows by 1 percent, for example, then the increase cap for the taxing entity would be 3.5 percent. Overriding the cap would require voter approval.

John Phelan, an economist for Minnesota-based Center of the American Experiment, which wrote the model legislation for both states, said the proposal was prompted by property tax hikes last year of between 8 percent and 9.5 percent in some counties. School boards decide on annual district operating budgets and subsequent tax levies; voters only have a say on major expenditures beyond personnel and fixed costs, such as the creation of a multimillion-dollar technology fund.

“The burden shouldn’t be driven by asset values,” Phelan told The Epoch Times. “If [school districts] want to spend more money, they should get permission from the population.”

In Montana, Republican state lawmakers are pursuing a 2 percent cap on property tax hikes for local government funding, but not for schools, which consume about 55 percent of property tax revenues.

Kendall Cotton, president and CEO of the Frontier Institute research and policy center, called the legislation a good start, but said more relief is needed, as home appraisals in growing communities increased by 60 percent this year, resulting in double-digit property tax hikes.

“These big jumps put a lot of pressure on the system, but governments have not been responding in kind,” Cotton told The Epoch Times.

He cited an example of a school district near the state capital, where taxpayers were asked on short notice to cover expensive boiler replacements ahead of Montana’s frigid winter. That project should have been paid in full with the federal COVID-19 relief aid years earlier, considering the heating equipment was approaching the end of its life cycle. Instead, school leaders used the grants to hire more administrators and mental health counselors.

“Misplaced priorities,” he said. “People are really being taxed out of their homes. We are just renting from the government.”

Members of Nebraska’s Epic Option citizen group, like their peers in Ohio, are collecting signatures for a ballot initiative to eliminate property taxes. They paused their efforts to obtain the required 160,000 signatures this year and instead will focus on 2028, according to the group’s website.

A pen and petition at Ron Shumate’s home in Springfield Township, Ohio, on April 21, 2026. Shumate said the state should find alternative revenue sources to fund schools and local government. Glenn Hartong for The Epoch Times

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott suggested eliminating school property taxes, and Florida state lawmakers have proposed ending local government property taxes but not school taxes.

A bill in the Georgia state legislature calls for phasing out property taxes and increasing the sales tax. A similar bill was introduced in Pennsylvania. Various property tax reform measures have been proposed in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wyoming, according to their respective state legislature websites.

School Budget Woes

More than one-third of U.S. public school funding comes from local property taxes, while the remainder is provided by state and federal aid, as well as municipal and state sales taxes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Some states also apply lottery and gambling revenues.

All told, K–12 spending across the country now exceeds $1 trillion, the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University reported on April 23.

It also said public per-student spending ranges from about $11,000 in Idaho to more than $31,887 in the District of Columbia. Staffing and school tax rates continue to increase in most districts, while student enrollment decreases.

Typical state and federal aid formulas are based on enrollment, so districts must either cut costs or raise local taxes to offset the decreasing amount of per-student aid. The dependence on $189 billion in federal COVID-19 pandemic relief money, which prompted massive hiring sprees but is now exhausted, has exacerbated the financial crisis in many districts that serve low-income communities with large populations of special needs students.

Morse High School students in Bath, Maine, on Dec. 4, 2025. More than a third of U.S. public school funding comes from local property taxes, while the remainder is provided by state and federal aid, as well as municipal and state sales taxes, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

The Buffalo, New York, city school district, for example, added 900 workers between 2018 and 2025—including a 569 percent increase in administrative and central office employees—even though enrollment decreased by 11 percent, or 3,679 students, according to the Edunomics Lab.

Buffalo City School District officials previously told The Epoch Times that they implemented a four-year plan to eliminate more than 400 positions, mostly through attrition, and close two school buildings after 2026.

Nationally, public K–12 enrollment decreased by about 900,500 students in the past decade, while staffing during the same time period increased by about 700,000, or 11.9 percent, according to the Edunomics Lab. The organization also reported planned school layoffs or staff reductions this year in Boston; Cleveland; Milwaukee; Las Vegas; Los Angeles; San Diego; San Francisco; Fresno, California; Richmond, Virginia; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Toledo, Ohio; Anchorage, Alaska; Cedar Rapids, Iowa;  Fort Lauderdale, Florida;  and “countless small and mid-sized districts.”

“This isn’t temporary,” the Edunomics Lab said in an email to The Epoch Times. “It’s a reset.”

Rising Property Values, Higher Taxes

Local property taxes for funding schools and municipal governments are typically based on a $1,000 rate of a home’s assessed value. It’s expected that assessed values in most places are below what a property would sell for, though town, city, and county assessors are tasked with revaluing homes on a regular basis based on changing market values. Higher assessments equal more money for taxing entities.

In addition to school tax increase caps and percentage limits on the taxable values levied on a property, many states, including Ohio, offer slight discounts to low-income households, particularly those owned by seniors who rely on Social Security.

Still, opponents say, stagnant wage growth isn’t keeping up with inflation plus annual property tax increases.

Blackmarr said the monthly property taxes on her home in Lakewood, Ohio, total $383, or $31 more than the principal and interest payments on her mortgage. In 2007, her property taxes on the same house accounted for only 15 percent of the monthly payment, compared to nearly 50 percent today.

She knows of a 58-year-old property owner who extended his mortgage for at least another 30 years because increased property tax and home insurance rates recently pushed his monthly payments, which he began in 2001, out of reach.

Shumate, 83, is bracing for a big bill: A neighbor just sold a much smaller home for $348,000— more than twice as much as Shumate paid for his house seven years ago; the last municipal appraisal in the neighborhood took place in 2021. He believes he can afford higher taxes but worries about his neighbors. The system also discourages homeowners from improving their properties with additions, renovations, or swimming pools.

“The American dream is to own a home, work for at least 30 years, pay it off, retire 10 years later, and be comfortable,” he said. “If you’re relying on Social Security, that won’t happen.”

Taxpayers Want Their Say

The process for authorizing school district budgets varies across the country, with many states requiring voter approval for tax increases related to operational costs and major purchases, but not labor contracts.

Some allow residents to decide on local school board candidates, but not district spending plans, unless the proposal exceeds the state cap for property tax increases.

Either way, massive expenditures for things such as bus fleets, new athletic facilities, technology investments, or the creation of a new dedicated fund often require a public referendum.

In Western Massachusetts, voters in the South Hadley school district on April 14 rejected an override proposition that would raise property taxes by up to 50 percent to maintain all current staffing and programs. Now, school leaders there are poised to cut several administrator and teaching jobs, Advanced Placement courses, music classes, and all sports and extracurricular activities, according to documents on the district website.

Members of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance citizens’ group celebrated the outcome.

“People are tired of being taxed to death and seeing the money stolen,” a supporter posted on the group’s Facebook page.

In Minnesota, lawmakers approved enhanced summer unemployment benefits for school bus drivers and then eliminated them a year later because of the growing state budget deficit. Voters in most districts, Phelan said, probably wouldn’t have approved it in the first place; nor would they approve the progressive curricula mandates or taxpayer contributions to the teacher retirement fund.

In Ohio, the passage rate in public votes to override property tax hikes above the state cap reached a low of 19 percent in 2024, compared to a historical passing rate of 37 percent, according to the McKinsey report.

Ohioan Gene Wodzisz purchased his home, a bungalow in the town of Parma, 53 years ago for $42,000. The improvements and additions made to the property have significantly increased its taxable value in recent years.

Wodzisz told The Epoch Times that he can cover the taxes but disagrees in principle: He paid for his own children’s private school tuition while also contributing to local public schools for more than half a century now.

“I understand when it’s for families that don’t have much money, but if you’re making $100,000?  Let’s be reasonable. Parents need to pay closer attention to their school boards,” he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 13:10

Cigna To Exit Obamacare In 2027 Amid Rising Costs

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

The Cigna Group, one of the country’s largest health services and insurance firms, is joining others, including Aetna and UnitedHealthcare, in divesting its individual health exchange business.

By the end of 2026, Cigna Group will no longer offer insurance through the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as “Obamacare,” the company said during its April 30 earnings call.

According to its first-quarter earnings report, as of March 31, the company’s individual exchange business had 369,000 members in individual and family plans.

“We did not make this decision lightly, and appreciate the importance of ensuring patients have continuity through the transition,” Brian Evanko, Cigna Group’s president, chief operating officer, and incoming CEO, said during the earnings call.

“Looking to the future, there’s no question that the status quo in healthcare is unsustainable. Costs continue to rise, as does demand for healthcare services, an untenable equation,” he said.

“We will support members through their open enrollment transitions into 2027.”

Cigna’s decision comes after other health insurance companies, such as CVS Health and UnitedHealthcare, divested insurance business under the ACA.

In its first-quarter 2025 earnings report, released on Feb. 10, CVS Health announced that it was exiting its individual exchange business, where its health insurance arm, Aetna, independently operates ACA plans, beginning in 2026.

Years earlier, UnitedHealthcare said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission in December 2016 that its Employer and Individual program would participate in individual public exchanges in only three states in 2017, a sharp reduction from 34 states in 2016.

At the beginning of this year, the Alliance of Safety-net Hospitals predicted that expiring tax credits for buying health insurance under ACA exchanges could affect nearly 4.8 million people in 2026, as the cost of such plans continues to escalate.

Evanko said Cigna’s decision to vacate the individual healthcare business now is necessary in order to support the firm’s strategic direction for the future. This will allow the insurer to focus its efforts on enhancing customer service with streamlined pharmacy services and additional system improvements.

Evanko noted that over the years, Cigna has continued to add or subtract from its portfolio as needed to position its core healthcare business for sustainable growth.

Last year, Cigna divested its group life and disability business, touting the recent sale of its Medicare businesses.

“Divesting each of these assets enabled greater focus and investment in the remaining businesses within our portfolio, supporting our forward-looking growth path,” he noted.

However, in 2025, Cigna acquired CarepathRx, a pharmacy service dealing with more than 40 health systems and 1,000 hospitals. Last year, Cigna also invested in Shields Health Solutions, which allows it to partner with hospitals and health systems serving patients with complex needs or requiring specialty medications.

Cigna’s first-quarter earnings of $68.52 billion outpaced market expectations of $66.2 billion. Its earnings per share of $7.79 also exceeded the forecasted $7.61.

However, the company’s shares declined by 2.64 percent on May 1, closing at $282.90.

Going forward, Evanko said the insurer plans to continue embracing data and modern technology to improve customer satisfaction and offer more personalized services.

Evanko noted that Cigna has also introduced Signature, its new rebate-free pharmacy benefits model.

According to Evanko, high-cost branded prescriptions represent about 10 percent of all prescriptions nationwide, but nearly 90 percent of total drug spending. The new Signature model is designed with the patient at the center, and its Price Assure capacity guarantees consumers the lowest possible out-of-pocket costs when filling their prescriptions.

Cigna expects the Signature model to become standard in 2028 and for at least 50 percent of its Evernorth Pharmacy Benefit Services members to be enrolled in Signature by the end of 2028.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 12:40

3 Dead, 149 Trapped Onboard: Track Cruise Ship With Suspected Deadly Virus Outbreak

A luxury cruise ship carrying 149 passengers and crew is facing a suspected hantavirus outbreak that has already left three people dead. The vessel is currently anchored offshore near Cape Verde, the island nation in the central Atlantic off the west coast of Africa, as health officials rush to assess the scale of the outbreak.

The MV Hondius is currently anchored offshore near Praia, the capital and largest city of Cape Verde. Ship-tracking data show the vessel anchored just off the coast on Sunday after transiting from Argentina, with its prior voyage originating near the Antarctic Peninsula.

Track the virus-plagued ship.

Hondius's operator, Oceanwide Expeditions, told BBC News that a Dutch husband and wife, as well as a German national, had died but did not reveal the cause of death. However, the Dutch company said hantavirus was confirmed in a 69-year-old UK national who is in intensive care in Johannesburg, South Africa.

The main transmission risk of the deadly virus to humans is through infected rodent urine, droppings, saliva, or contaminated dust, especially in poorly ventilated areas. People can inhale contaminated particles when rodent waste is disturbed.

Oceanwide Expeditions confirmed two other crew members on board "with acute respiratory symptoms, one mild and one severe."

"It is not entirely uncommon for rodents to hitch a ride on a ship, which would be one possibility," Charlotte Hammer, assistant professor and infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge, told the UK Science Media Center.

Hammer noted, "People having been infected when the ship last made port in Argentina is another possibility. The last possibility would be human-to- human transmission, which, particularly at scale, would be very unlikely."

Bloomberg quoted the World Health Organization, which is "facilitating coordination between member states and the ship's operators for medical evacuation of two symptomatic passengers, as well as a full public health risk assessment and support to the remaining passengers on board."

This is yet another reminder of why cruises are a terrible way to spend a holiday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 12:20

Colorblind Constitution: The Roberts Court Ends A 'Sordid Business'

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, barring racial gerrymandering, has many on the left feigning vapors, despite the predictions of many of us that this result was likely.

While figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) declared that the court itself has been “gerrymandered” to rig the upcoming elections, this decision is actually the culmination of decades of jurisprudence by various justices — particularly Chief Justice John Roberts.

Indeed, the decision will cement the legacy of the Roberts Court in moving the country toward a colorblind system of laws.

Like most Americans, Roberts abhors racial discrimination in any form. He holds the quaint idea that when the drafters of the 14th Amendment barred discrimination on the basis of race, they meant it. This is why, in 2006, Roberts famously wrote, “It is a sordid business, this divvying us up by race.”

Roberts sees no difference between such discrimination when it disfavors one or another race. It is all a sordid business, and he has spent decades writing eloquent arguments for the court to abandon its conflicted and hypocritical approach to racial discrimination.

The court has struggled to rationalize using race to discriminate when it serves a higher purpose, such as greater equity or affirmative action. Some of those opinions were constitutionally incomprehensible.

For example, in 2003, in Grutter v. Bollinger, the court divided five to four on whether to uphold racial admissions criteria used to achieve “diversity” in a class at the University of Michigan Law School. However, in her opinion with the majority, Justice Sandra Day O’Connor stated that she “expects that 25 years from now, the use of racial preferences will no longer be necessary to further the interest approved today.”

Few of us could understand how O’Connor found a type of expiration date on permissible racial criteria in the Constitution.

Throughout that period, however, certain justices held firm that there is a bright-line rule against such racial criteria. That includes the author of the court’s Callais decision, Justice Samuel Alito, but also Roberts, who in 2007, put it succinctly: “The way to stop discriminating on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”

One can certainly disagree with this interpretation and the low tolerance for racial criteria. However, this had nothing to do with the midterm elections. It is the result of dozens of opinions building up to this point.

From college admissions to gerrymandering, the court has created the bright line that figures like Roberts have long sought. In doing so, they have moved this country closer to a colorblind jurisprudence than at any time in our history.

The Biden administration was found repeatedly to have violated the Constitution through racial discrimination in federal programs. Democratic leaders have fought this trend and have pledged to reverse these decisions. Some even demand that Democrats pack the Court with a liberal majority as soon as they retake power.

Last year, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services that whites cannot be placed under additional burdens when bringing discrimination lawsuits.

Much of the coverage of the Callais decision is long on rhetoric and short on substance. The court did not “gut” the Voting Rights Act. It also did not strike down Section 2 of the act. Rather, the court held that neither the act nor the Constitution gives legislators authority to manipulate districts so as to effectively guarantee the race of the elected representatives — any race.

For decades, the courts have faced endless litigation over district configurations designed to elect minority representatives. It is a system that gave candidates an advantage based solely on their race. The court held that such racial gerrymandering is unlawful. The Voting Rights Act will now be read to prevent intentional racial discrimination. Courts will still bar any districts designed “to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race.”

That does not mean that racial discrimination has been eliminated in our nation, or that we do not need to commit ourselves wholly to its eradication. The stain of slavery and segregation remains with us, as does the lingering scourge of racial prejudice. African Americans and other minorities still face invidious discrimination that cannot be tolerated in our system. We still have much work to be done.

In the area of voting rights, the courts have and will continue to strike down any rules designed to suppress or block minority voters.

Despite this ongoing struggle with racism, there are reasons to be hopeful.

As the Rev. Martin Luther King put it, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” Non-whites are now powerful players in American politics. White voters are expected to be a minority in this country within two decades.

We have now elected a black president and a black vice president. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (who declared the Court “illegitimate” after the Callais opinion) expects to be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives.

This progress was hard-fought, and both the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act played important roles in achieving greater racial diversity in our society.

And the Callais decision is also part of that progress. We are moving into a new era where racial criteria and discrimination are neither rationalized nor tolerated. There is now reason to hope that we will indeed end “this sordid business, this divvying us up by race.”

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 11:45

Pirates Of The Arabian

By Stefan Koopman, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

“We landed on top of it. We took over the ship, the cargo, the oil. It’s a very profitable business… We’re like pirates.” President Trump’s remarks were, once again, strikingly blunt and unfiltered, to the point of sounding almost satirical. Yet the irony is real. The US president was openly acknowledging that American naval power in the Arabian Sea is now being used in ways that mirror the practices it was once built to suppress.

Negotiating with pirates is difficult. While this weekend’s headlines finally hint at diplomacy between the US and Iran, the gap between their positions appears wider than the Strait itself. Iran continues to cling to maximalist demands, while the US rejects them as unacceptable. For now, no credible outlines of a deal have emerged.

In the meantime, Washington is trying a different tactic. The US is encouraging neutral commercial vessels to run the blockade, putting Iran’s threats to the test. It has offered to help guide stranded ships through the Strait by sharing information on safer transit routes (e.g. no mines) and, potentially, insurance support. Although US navy vessels may operate nearby, this falls short of formal military escorts, which would likely violate the ceasefire. Even so, the approach carries obvious risks, as it could still result in exchanges of fire with Iranian ships, which might then lead to further escalation.

From Washington’s perspective, that risk is not entirely unwelcome. Any Iranian attack on neutral shipping would strengthen the US public‑relations case and might make it a bit easier to assemble the international coalition that has so far proven elusive.

This is a savvy legal move by Trump.

May 1: War Powers letter formally ends hostilities, preserves force posture, asserts Article II constitutional authority.

May 3: "Project Freedom" announced as a humanitarian operation, not military.

Monday: US Navy escorts neutral… https://t.co/jEJTdw5C7C

— Chris Rollins (@ThePowerAudit) May 3, 2026

If some energy does flow out of Hormuz, it will kick the can down further down the road. The deeper problem remains that both sides believe they have won. Washington points to the destruction of much of Iran’s navy and air force, its missile‑launching capacity, and large parts of its military and industrial base. Tehran draws a different conclusion. It has survived a campaign widely seen as aiming at regime collapse, it has demonstrated its ability to strike across the Gulf and into Israel, and it has shown it can place the global economy in a chokehold.

Even as its own economy suffers from the US blockade, Tehran appears convinced it can outlast the US economically and politically, especially as Trump moves closer to the midterm elections. At present neither side holds a strong card, yet both believe time is on its side. That might look like a manageable situation were it not for oil markets losing roughly 10 million barrels a day, with inventories now running uncomfortably low.

This leaves Trump facing a binary choice. He can pursue genuine diplomacy, concede parts of Iran’s demands, and secure outcomes he wants. That path would provoke resistance from Israel and hawks in Washington, but it would also be the fastest way to restore flows through Hormuz. Or he can resume the war, whether being provoked or not, betting that another bombing campaign will achieve what the first 40 days did not.

The problem is that coercion does not stop at Iran. Its oil may be seized, but buyers are punished too. The US Treasury has escalated sanctions by targeting major Chinese oil importers, most notably Hengli, a 400,000‑barrel‑a‑day refinery accused of purchasing billions of dollars of Iranian crude. Beijing pushed back. Its commerce ministry invoked the Blocking Statute, instructing firms not to comply with what it described as unjustified and improper US sanctions. This puts large companies between a rock and a hard place, because they either have to decide to comply with US sanctions or with the Chinese rules. That points at decoupling.

Pirates also have a habit of breaking deals. Over the past year European policymakers persuaded themselves that a durable bargain with this White House was possible. That belief produced the Turnberry deal, a one‑sided concession presented as a truce to stabilize Transatlantic trade. The logic was always questionable. And this weekend president Trump said he will raise its Section 232 tariffs on European car imports back to 25% from Turnberry’s 15%, underlining how little its own deals constrain it.

The Commission’s instinct may be to reopen talks, seeking a return to the lower rate through technical adjustments or promises of rapid implementation. That reaction is understandable, but it may also miss the point. The lesson of the Greenland episode is that this administration responds more to firmness than to appeasement. On paper, Europe has options too. It still holds a list of €93bn in retaliatory tariffs, suspended after Turnberry. It also has the Anti‑Coercion Instrument, the so‑called trade bazooka, which allows restrictions on US investment or the withdrawal of intellectual property protection. The tools exist, but the question ahead is whether Europe is willing to follow China’s lead?

US pressure on Europe, and Germany in particular, is not limited to trade. Days after a call between Trump and Putin, Washington said it would withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, part of the 37,000 still stationed there. Russia would clearly welcome such a move, as would Iran. Trump appears to see these forces as deployed mainly to protect Germany. In reality, the bases exist to allow the US to project power into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Their removal would weaken America’s own strategic reach.

Berlin now faces the same choice as Brussels. One option is deference, flattering a protector in the hope of restraint despite mounting evidence that protection has become transactional and unreliable. The other is acceptance and acceleration, by folding this shock into Europe’s broader defense awakening and pushing faster towards genuine strategic autonomy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 11:20

GameStop CEO's CNBC Interview Raises More Questions Than Answers On eBay Bid

Summary:

• GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen Can't Explain Basic Deal Math To CNBC Host 

• eBay Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Proposal from GameStop

• GameStop CEO Tells CNBC: We Haven't Heard Anything Yet From eBay

• Wall Street analysts "skeptical" about the GameStop Takeover of eBay

• GameStop CEO Reveals Unsolicited Offer to Buy eBay

GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen Joins CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin For Interview

CNBC's Andrew Sorkin interviewed GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen earlier this morning about GameStop's bid for eBay.

Sorkin asked Cohen about "how does the math work for you? Given the price tag $56 billion, given the market cap of GameStop which is a fraction of that. I know you have this $20 billion dollar financing letter from TD but sort of walk us through how you could get to that price and how it would work."

Sorkin responded to Cohen's answer with disbelief, noting that he had not provided the basic math for how the deal would work. Cohen pointed to a press release that stated the deal is "half cash, half stock."

Sorkin pressed Cohen on the basic math, yet Cohen still couldn't provide a straight answer.

Sorkin emphasized, "I hear you. You understand that. And just trying to understand where the rest of the money would come from."

Cohen responded by repeating what he had said before: "Half cash, half stock."

Sorkin: "I'm just saying that math doesn't get to the price of your offering. So that is a pretty straightforward question. I don't get it. Where is the rest of the money coming from?"

Cohen: "Andrew, I laid it out clearly. I don't understand your question. We're offering half cash, half stock and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done. But the full details... that's on our website."

Here's the most contentious part of Ryan Cohen's CNBC Squawk Box interview about the GameStop-EBAY acquisition.

This is a HEATED back and forth, uncommon for financial news. $GME

Sorkin, at one point is in disbelief at RC's repetitive answering to his question. pic.twitter.com/MWAbYWStlp

— Reese Politics (@ReesePolitics) May 4, 2026

Why Cohen couldn't explain the basic math to CNBC viewers is a major red flag.

X users pointed out that GameStop's new 13D shows derivatives, or option calls, represent 99.89% (22,176,000 shares) of its $EBAY position.

Actual common stock owned by GameStop is about 25,000 shares, or .11% of the total position.

Wow $GME's new 13D shows derivatives (calls) represent 99.89% (22,176,000 shares) of its $EBAY position.

Compared to direct common stock of 25,000 shares, which is only 0.11% of the position. pic.twitter.com/G9EAMiJF96

— Reese Politics (@ReesePolitics) May 4, 2026

"If the deal falls through, hopefully they just sell their calls for a 50% return," one X user said, which appears to be read.

That's my read

— Reese Politics (@ReesePolitics) May 4, 2026

Polymarket odds of "Will GameStop acquire eBay" stand at 27%.

//--> //--> //--> Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Yes 29% · No 71%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*GAMESTOP EXTENDS DROP TO SESSION-LOW 7.3% https://t.co/RGCnJjc0C0

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 4, 2026

Cohen is best known as the co-founder of Chewy and as an activist investor in GameStop.

Meanwhile .... "Big Short" investor Michael Burry: 

GameStop Makes Its Play
$56 Billion for eBay, Makes Perfect Sensehttps://t.co/Wk6q9MqqCn $GME $EBAY pic.twitter.com/sCs7XLsNJJ

— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) May 4, 2026

And GameStop's 'momo' traders are getting hammered by late morning, down about 7%. 

eBay Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Proposal from GameStop

eBay confirmed that it received an unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal from GameStop.

eBay's Board of Directors will review the proposal to determine whether it is in eBay's and shareholders' best interests.

Wall Street Analysts Respond

eBay shares jumped as much as 13% in New York premarket trading after GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen told The Wall Street Journal that he had submitted a $56 billion takeover bid for the online marketplace.

Cohen's deal appears to be part of his strategy to transform eBay into a direct competitor to Amazon, leveraging GameStop's retail footprint and logistics infrastructure to create a larger e-commerce platform.

Wall Street analysts were broadly "skeptical" of Cohen's ability to finance the deal because eBay's market capitalization is nearly four times that of GameStop's, and Truist estimates that GameStop would need nearly $20 billion in debt financing.

Here's the latest comments from analysts, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

• Analyst Nathan Feather notes the key question in any hypothetical acquisition scenario would be financing, as eBay's market cap is roughly four times larger than Gamestop

• "We are also initially skeptical on potential synergies. Regardless of outcome, confirmation of an offer would demonstrate eBay's increased potential strategic value"

• Notes that regardless of whether Gamestop's bid is successful, an offer would demonstrate how eBay "has been able to increase its strategic value as it has focused on its key strengths (focus categories, C2C, and recommerce) which could also be of interest to other potential acquirers"

Truist (hold)

• Analyst Youssef Squali is "skeptical of the ultimate success of this pursuit" at first glance; calls the bid "stunning"

• "GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen, who has accumulated a ~5% stake in the marketplace (through stock and options), indicated he is prepared to initiate a proxy fight to take the offer directly to shareholders if eBay's board remains unreceptive"

• Notes that Gamestop ended 2025 with a "significantly bolstered balance sheet," but deal would still require nearly $20 billion of debt financing to bridge valuation gap.

Trigon Brokerage (no rating)

• Analyst Dominik Niszcz says deal valuation is seen to be "justified by potential synergies, including significant cost savings, the combination of asset-light eBay (a weakness versus Amazon) with GameStop's physical stores and logistics, as well as a revenue 'flywheel' in collectibles and gaming products."

Meanwhile, GME shares fell 6% in premarket trading as retail traders received a real-time lesson in merger arbitrage, with the momentum stock running into a brick wall of a proposed $56 billion eBay takeover. 

GameStop CEO Reveals Unsolicited Offer to Buy eBay

Update: GameStop - the meme stonk that also happens to sell video games, is making an unsolicited offer to buy Ebay for around $56 billion, and already has a commitment letter from TD Bank to provide $20 billion in debt financing to help make it happen, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

Late last month, eBay reported strong first-quarter results. Anna Webber/Getty Images for Teen Vogue

According to Cohen, GameStop has built up a 5% stake in Ebay and is offering $125/share in cash and stock - which makes for a roughly 20% premium to Friday's closing price.

"EBay should be worth—and will be worth—a lot more money," said Cohen in an interview. "I'm thinking about turning eBay into something worth hundreds of billions of dollars."

Ryan Cohen in Miami in 2022. Anastasia Samoylova for WSJ

If eBay resists Cohen's advances, he's ready to run a proxy fight and take it directly to shareholders. 

"There is nobody who is more qualified, based on my experience, to run the eBay business," Cohen said - noting his time at GameStop, and previously Chewy - the online pet-products marketplace he co-founded. 

* * *

Three months ago, billionaire Ryan Cohen, the CEO of GameStop, told The Wall Street Journal he was eyeing a major acquisition. Fast forward to late last week, and in what appears to be an intentional leak to the same outlet, Cohen's next move may now be coming into focus: preparing an offer to buy eBay.

The WSJ cites sources who say that Cohen's GameStop has built a $12 billion position in eBay ahead of a potential offer. Notably, eBay has a market capitalization 3.8 times larger than that of the video game retailer.

Sources said Cohen could announce the offer as early as this month, and if eBay rejects it, he may take the bid directly to shareholders.

In late January, Cohen told WSJ that he was eyeing a major transaction and searching for deals in the consumer and retail space, as part of a plan to expand the business far beyond video games and collectibles. 

WSJ's Lauren Thomas noted, "GameStop had around $9 billion in cash on hand at the end of March, up from $4.8 billion a year earlier. Cohen would likely enlist his legions of online followers to rally behind a deal, too."

The report comes as GameStop shares are up about 32% this year on hopes for dealmaking, while eBay shares are up nearly 20% this year.

However, one week ago, we penned a note covering AI startup Anthropic, which quietly released a report titled "Project Deal" suggesting the company may be preparing to take on eBay.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 11:09

"This Is Unacceptable": Duffy Sounds Off After United Jet Clips Light Pole, Truck In New Jersey

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy joined Fox Business on Monday morning, where he described Sunday's midair incident, in which a commercial jumbo jet's landing gear clipped a light pole and truck on a New Jersey highway, as "unacceptable," despite the aircraft being flown by "really well-trained pilots."

"So I don't want to get ahead of the investigation. Again, it seems pretty clear a light pole at least was hit. Was the truck hit? That will be ascertained as the NTSB arrives today. The FAA is going to arrive today. They're in contact with United," Duffy said.

United Airlines Boeing 767 aircraft (N77066) struck a light pole on the New Jersey Turnpike on approach at Newark Liberty International Airport on Sunday afternoon.

The Flight UA169, operated by a Boeing 767-424 from Venice, Italy, with 221 passengers and 10 crew members on… pic.twitter.com/Stpzf7hJ1Z

— FL360aero (@fl360aero) May 3, 2026

Local news outlet Fox Baltimore confirmed that a delivery truck owned and operated by the Baltimore-based Schmidt Bakery was struck by the United Airlines jet.

Chuck Paterakis of H&S Family of Bakeries said the driver had departed from the Baltimore metro area and was headed to a company depot in New Jersey when the incident happened near Newark Liberty International Airport. He said the driver suffered minor injuries from broken glass.

Duffy continued, "This is unacceptable. We have really well-trained pilots. This should never happen in America."

A photo has been posted on social media showing the moment United Airlines flight 169 struck a semi-truck on final approach to Newark Liberty International Airport yesterday.

The truck driver has since been released from hospital the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey… pic.twitter.com/wvMMWeb7pl

— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) May 4, 2026

He added, "The big and small incidents we study, we look at and we learn from and we take action on, and that's why America is the safest place to fly. We have the safest guys, the busiest guys, bar none, and we're the best because we look at every incident and learn from it."

Sec. Duffy on the United Airlines collision at Newark: This is unacceptable. We have really well-trained pilots. This should never happen in America. An incident like this, we study and we learn from, and we take action on. That’s why America is the safest place to fly. pic.twitter.com/SzshEpfZ7I

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 4, 2026

Why the United Airlines flight had a low angle of attack during final approach will be determined and released in a future FAA report on the incident.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 11:00

CLARITY Act Stablecoin Yield Rules Finalized: 'Go Time' For Crypto Bill

Authored by Ciaran Lyons via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US CLARITY Act, which aims to provide the US crypto industry with more regulatory clarity, could now move closer to becoming law after new stablecoin yield provisions were published, according to Coinbase chief legal officer Faryar Shirzad.

“It’s time to get CLARITY done,” Shirzad said in an X post on Friday, after US Senator Thom Tillis and US Senator Angela Alsobrooks published the final text aimed at settling the stablecoin yield dispute between the banking and crypto industries, which has centered on whether such yields would harm the banking system’s competitiveness.

“In the end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters – the ability for Americans to earn rewards, based on real usage of crypto platforms and networks,” Shirzad said.

Extract of the “SEC 404. Prohibiting interest and yield on payment stablecoins” document. Source: Alex Thorn

The text titled “SEC 404. Prohibiting interest and yield on payment stablecoins” states that no crypto firm may pay “any form of interest or yield” to customers solely for holding stablecoins, akin to a bank deposit or any similar interest-bearing product. 

Source: Patrick Witt

However, it allows firms to offer rewards tied to “bona fide activities.” Some industry executives voiced frustration with the ruling. Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz said, "The clarity of not getting risk-free yield on your dollars without using a bank."

Polymarket traders anticipate 55% odds of CLARITY passing in 2026

It marks a significant step forward for both the legislation and the broader crypto industry, as the stablecoin yield debate had been one of the main roadblocks delaying its passage, despite expectations earlier this year that it would move through Congress.

Source: Toly Yakovenko

“Now that this issue is behind us, it’s time to focus on the broader bill,” Shirzad said.

Traders on the Polymarket crypto prediction market now see a 55% chance of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026, up 9% over the past 24 hours.

Many in the industry are now calling for the bill to be marked up. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said shortly after the announcement, “Mark it up.”

Senate Banking Committee could schedule markup “imminently”

Galaxy Digital head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the “release of text suggests that Senate Banking will schedule markup imminently, as soon as the week of May 11.”

However, Thorn warned that he expects “the banks to increase their opposition efforts.”

US Senator Bernie Moreno recently said that he anticipates the CLARITY Act to “get done” by the end of May. On April 11, US Senator Cynthia Lummis said, “It’s now or never.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 10:40

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Quarterly Refunding, Confidence, And More Earnings

Key data releases this week will be the US April jobs report and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey. Other economic events feature the US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement and rate decisions in Australia, Norway and Sweden. Corporate earnings include AMD, Palantir and Rheinmetall.

The focus this week will be on the US April jobs report due Friday. Economists see payrolls up +65k in April, down from +178k in March, with a
slightly faster earnings growth rate (+0.3% vs +0.2% in March) and a stable unemployment rate (4.3%). Other labor market indicators due will include the JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, US indicators will include the University of Michigan’s consumer survey for May on Friday (our US economists forecast some rebound in sentiment from 47.6 in April to 52.2), the ISM services index on Tuesday and Q1 non-farm productivity data on Thursday. Rounding out US events, there will also be the quarterly US Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday.

From central banks, policy rate decisions will be due from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expect a hike) and Sweden’s Riksbank and
Norway’s Norges on Thursday. There will also be plenty of speakers from the Fed and the ECB.

European indicators next week will include the April CPI reports in Switzerland (Tuesday) and Sweden (Wednesday), as well as March industrial production, factory orders and trade in Germany. In politics, the focus will be on the local elections in the UK on Thursday.

Elsewhere, there will be an OPEC+ meeting this Sunday. Finally, the busy corporate earnings schedule continues with highlights including tech names Palantir, AMD and CoreWeave and big consumer stocks Walt Disney and McDonald’s, amongst others. Defence firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo will also be in focus. Other notable European firms releasing results feature Shell, Ferrari and AB InBev. In Japan, the list includes Toyota, Sony and Nintendo.

Source

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 4

• Data: US March factory orders, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, new car registrations
• Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Simkus, Dolenc, Villeroy, Kocher, Guindos and Nagel speak
• Earnings: Palantir, ON Semiconductor, Paramount Skydance, Pinterest, Norwegian Cruise Line

Tuesday May 5

• Data: US April ISM services, March JOLTS report, trade balance, new home sales, UK April new car registrations, France March budget balance, Canada April services PMI, March international merchandise trade, New Zealand Q1 labor force survey, Switzerland April CPI
• Central banks: RBA decision, Fed's Barr and Bowman speak, ECB's Panetta and Lane speak
• Earnings: AMD, HSBC, Arista Networks, Eaton, Shopify, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Pfizer, UniCredit, KKR, TransDigm, Ferrari, Occidental Petroleum, Electronic Arts, PayPal, Coupang, Live Nation Entertainment, Leonardo, Prudential Financial, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Fiserv, Astera Labs, Devon Energy, IQVIA, Super Micro Computer

Wednesday May 6

• Data: US April ADP report, UK April official reserves changes, China RatingDog April PMIs, France March industrial production, Italy April services PMI, March retail sales, Eurozone March PPI, Sweden April CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Goolsbee speak, ECB's Lane and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: ARM Holdings, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, AppLovin, Uber, CVS Health, Equinor, Marriott, Johnson Controls International, Infineon, DoorDash, Apollo, Warner Bros Discovery, Medline, BMW, Coherent, Orsted, NRG Energy, Axon Enterprise, Veolia Environnement, Vestas, Fresenius, Kraft Heinz, Albemarle, Flutter Entertainment, Verisure, Deutsche Lufthansa, Blue Owl Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday May 7

• Data: US Q1 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, March construction spending, consumer credit, April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, China April foreign reserves, UK April construction PMI, Japan April monetary base, Germany April construction PMI, March factory orders, France March trade balance, current account balance, Q1 wages, Eurozone March retail sales
• Central banks: Riksbank decision, Norges Bank decision, BoJ minutes of the March meeting, Fed's Hammack and Williams speak, ECB's Kocher, Villeroy, Guindos, Lane and Schnabel speak
• Earnings: Shell, McDonald's, Gilead, Enel, McKesson, Howmet Aerospace, Engie, Airbnb, Cloudflare, Rheinmetall, CoreWeave, Cheniere Energy, Vistra, Coinbase Global, Rocket Lab, Datadog, Siemens Healthineers, Legrand, Rocket Cos, Block, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Expedia, Vonovia, Affirm, DraftKings, Unity Software
• Other: UK local elections

Friday May 8

• Data: US April jobs report, May University of Michigan survey, March wholesale trade sales, Japan March labor cash earnings, Germany March trade balance, industrial production, Canada April labour force survey
• Central banks: Fed’s Cook speaks, ECB's Guindos speaks 
• Earnings: Toyota, Sony, Intesa Sanpaolo, Nintendo, Commerzbank, Amadeus IT

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking  engagements by Fed officials this week, including events with Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman and Governor Barr on Tuesday and Governor Cook on Friday. 

Monday, May 4 

• 10:00 AM Factory orders, March (GS +2.3%, consensus -0.1%, last flat)
• 12:50 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks during the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium at the Yale Club. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 16, Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance the risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals." He also said, "Lately, the labor market has been displaying conflicting signs. In recent months, much of the hard data point to a stabilization in the balance between supply and demand, while some of the soft data suggest a labor market that continues to gradually soften."

Tuesday, May 5 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, March (GS -$61.2bn, consensus -$59.7bn, last -$57.3bn) 
• 09:45 AM [note deletion of manufacturing] S&P Global US services PMI, April final (last 51.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, April (GS 54.0, consensus 53.7, last 54.0): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 54.0 in April. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker increased slightly in April but remained below the latest ISM services reading (+0.8pt to 52.4).
• 10:00 AM New home sales, March (GS 680k, consensus 668k, last 587k [January]): Census will jointly release new home sales data for the months of February and March. We forecast that new home sales increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 680k in March after falling sharply in January, potentially reflecting the impact of poor weather in late January.
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, March (GS 6,750k, consensus 6,850k, last 6,882k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged down to 6.75mn in March based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
• 10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium. Q&A is expected. 
• 12:30 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will participate in a moderated conversation about his career path and international financial regulation. On March 26, Barr said, "Given the considerable uncertainty about the potential effects of developments in the Middle East on our economy, as well as the other factors I mentioned, it makes sense to take some time to assess conditions. Our current policy stance puts us in a good place to hold steady while we evaluate incoming data, the evolving forecast, and the balance of risks."

Wednesday, May 6 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, April (GS +170k, consensus +120k, last +62k)
• 09:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will participate in a moderated discussion at the Mississippi Bankers Association 2026 Annual Convention. On April 1, Musalem said, "I believe the current policy rate… will likely remain appropriate for some time," but "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, … [or] to prevent the real rate from rising if actual or expected inflation falls," or "I could support raising the policy rate to avoid an inadvertent real easing that would result from holding the policy rate constant if core inflation or medium- to long-term inflation expectations moved persistently higher and away from 2%."
• 01:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a panel on the financial mechanics and real-economy implications of the AI investment surge at the 2026 Milken Institute Global Conference. On April 14, Goolsbee said, "The longer this inflation disruption goes, the more likely it is that rate cuts would be put off." He added, "I have some concern about piling the energy shock on inflation before the tariff shock went away. That’s a dangerous spot to be in."

Thursday, May 7 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +1.8%); Unit labor costs, Q1 preliminary (GS +2.8%, consensus +2.5%, last +4.4%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 2 (GS 190k, consensus 205k, last 189k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 25 (consensus 1,791k, last 1,785k)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.3% [January]): Construction spending, February (GS +0.4%); Census will jointly release construction spending data for the months of February and March. We forecast that construction spending increased by 0.4% in February and 0.5% in March after falling 0.3% in January, potentially reflecting the impact of poor weather.
• 01:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat at Northern Michigan University. In his essay explaining his dissent at the April FOMC meeting, Kashkari said, "I supported the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to hold the federal funds rate at this week’s meeting, but I dissented against the FOMC’s action because I did not think it was appropriate to continue to include the following phrase in the policy statement: ‘In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.’” He added, "Given recent economic and geopolitical developments and the high level of uncertainty about the outlook, I do not believe [an easing bias in the statement] is appropriate at this time. Instead, the FOMC should offer a policy outlook that signals that the next rate change could be either a cut or a hike, depending on how the economy evolves."
• 02:05 PM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a fireside chat at the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit. In her essay explaining her dissent at the April FOMC meeting, Hammack said "I dissented from the post-meeting statement because I did not believe it was appropriate to include an easing bias around the future path for monetary policy... I see this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook." 
• 03:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion on the regional economy at the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress event. 

Friday, May 8 

• 05:45 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on tokenization and the financial system at a Central Bank of West African States conference. Speech text is expected. 
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, April (GS +75k, consensus +62k, last +178k); Private payroll employment, April (GS +80k, consensus +75k, last +186k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, April (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.3%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 75k in April. On the positive side, the big data indicators of job growth we track were solid and higher frequency measures of layoffs remained low. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls—reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% in April. That said, the bar for rounding down to 4.2% is not high from an unrounded 4.26% in March. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in April, reflecting neutral calendar effects.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (GS 50.0, consensus 49.4, last 49.8); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May preliminary (GS 3.5%, last 3.5%)
• 07:30 PM Fed Governors Waller and Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter), and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak on a panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/04/2026 - 10:30