US Gas Prices Hit Highest Level In 4 Years, Analyst Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The average price for a gallon of gasoline hit its highest level in four years on Tuesday as the cost of a barrel of oil remains elevated amid the conflict with Iran, according to a prominent analyst.

Customers pump gas at a gas station in Miami on April 13, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The national average price for a gallon of gas was $4.17, “the highest level since 2022,” and surpassed the $4.16 price reported earlier this month, said GasBuddy analyst Patrick de Haan in an X post on April 28.

“We’ll continue to head higher for now,” he added.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) also said the price for a gallon of regular gas reached just above $4.17, showing a 6-cent increase from Monday.

The price of gas and oil surged after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, prompting the country to respond by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and launching its own strikes on neighboring countries in the Middle East.

Diesel was significantly higher on Tuesday, with AAA showing the price for a gallon at $5.46, an increase of 2 cents over Monday’s average.

According to an AAA report in March, the nationwide average price for a gallon of gas stood at around $2.98 on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S. military launched the strikes.

A federal Energy Information Administration (EIA) graph shows that gas prices reached $4.21 per gallon in April 2022, several weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Prices may have been impacted by the United Arab Emirates’ announcement on Tuesday that the oil-rich country was quitting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), dealing a blow to the oil producers’ group. The exit of the UAE weakens ‌OPEC’s control over global oil supplies and will widen a rift between the UAE and neighboring Saudi Arabia.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters in ​a telephone interview that the decision was taken after examining the country’s energy strategies. He said the UAE had not discussed the issue with any other country.

“This ​is a policy decision, it has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” ⁠al-Mazrouei said.

OPEC Gulf producers have been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, due to Iranian threats and attacks on vessels. The Trump administration has pushed for Iran to reopen the strait while maintaining a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday provided an update on the U.S.–Iran conflict, writing in a Truth Social post that Iran informed the administration that it is in a “state of collapse” and wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He did not provide other details.

Earlier on April 28, an Iranian military official told the semi-official IRNA news agency that Tehran considers itself still at war with the United States amid the blockade and ceasefire.

Trump and administration officials have said that gas prices will likely go down after the war ends. “I think they'll be much lower. Before midterms? Much lower,” he told Fox Business in mid-April.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 08:45

Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed, Mag 7 Earnings Avalanche

S&P futures are flat with Nasdaq outperforming ahead of a huge day for tech. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft, representing nearly 20% of S&P market cap, report after the close, with traders focused on capex. The group has a combined options implied move of more than $750 billion of market cap in either direction. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged; Nasdaq futures rise 0.3% amid dip buying following strong results from Seagate, after the index slipped more than 1% in the previous session, and the sector outperformed in Europe and Asia. In premarket trading, semis are again seeing a strong bid post-earnings, Mag7 names are flat to down, Cyclicals are leading Defensives driven by Energy / Industrials / Materials. Treasury yields rose along with the dollar ahead of the Fed’s latest interest-rate announcement at what is likely Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair and where the Fed will keep rates unchanged. WTI crude rose $103  while Brent jumped above $114 a barrel - approaching the highest since the start of the Iran war - after the US signaled it would stick with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, leaving the Strait of Hormuz impassable. The key overnight news came from Trump’s threat of extending the US blockade, which is boosting oil, pushing Brent to the highest in a month, but for now Equities are blissfully interpreting this as an “escalate to de-escalate” situation. Bond yields are near session highs, above 4.36% ahead of today's Fed decision with no changes expected in an 11-1 vote, though there will likely be multiple questions probing Powell’s intent to leave the Board or to finishing his term which runs into 2028, or perhaps stay on until all investigations are concluded. US economic data calendar slate includes March readings for wholesale inventories, durable goods and housing starts are due at 8:30 a.m. ET. FOMC rate decision is at 2 p.m., followed by a press conference at 2.30 p.m. Bank of Canada rate decision is due at 9:45 a.m.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.1%, Apple -0.7%, Nvidia +0.4%, Meta -0.1%, Microsoft -0.6%, Tesla +0.2%

• Bloom Energy (BE) jumps 20% after the fuel cell maker boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating Wall Street guidance expectations.
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) falls 3% after the online travel agent said the Middle East conflict impacted its first-quarter results to varying degrees. Its second-quarter and full-year forecasts missed estimates.
• Brown-Forman (BF/B) falls 5% after the alcoholic beverage maker and Pernod Ricard agreed to terminate discussions regarding a potential business combination.
• Humana (HUM) slips 1% after the health insurer reaffirmed its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year, even as its first-quarter profit came ahead of expectations.
• KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV) shares are halted after Chiesi Farmaceutici SpA agreed to acquire the US-listed company for about $1.9 billion, expanding the Italian company’s rare immunology portfolio.
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) jumps 18% after the chipmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a second-quarter forecast that is above the analyst consensus.
• O-I Glass (OI) sinks 21% after the glass bottle maker cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, citing higher global energy costs as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.
• Robinhood (HOOD) falls 10% after the firm said expenses jumped 18% in the first quarter and warned that its “Trump account” push would require an additional $100 million investment.
• Rush Street (RSI) surges 17% after the gaming company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and raised its outlook for the full year.
• Seagate Technology (STX) rises 17% after the computer hardware and storage company gave a fourth-quarter forecast that was much stronger than expected. It also reported third-quarter results that beat expectations, fueled by AI-related demand.
• Starbucks (SBUX) climbs 4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and saying it now sees comparable sales rising at least 5% this year, up from its previous view of 3% or more.
• Teradyne (TER) falls 6% after the semiconductor manufacturing company gave an outlook that wasn’t seen as strong enough to justify the stock’s recent strength.
• Visa (V) rises 5% after the credit card company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and net revenue that both topped average analyst estimates.
• Vita Coco (COCO) climbs 15% after after the beverage firm boosted its net sales guidance for the full year.

In deals, Jack Daniel’s owner Brown-Forman and Jameson whiskey maker Pernod Ricard terminated their merger talks, marking an abrupt end to a potential deal. Finland’s Kone agreed to acquire TK Elevator for €29.4 billion ($34.4 billion) including debt, in what will be one of Europe’s biggest-ever PE exits.

There’s a relentless few days ahead, with companies representing around 42% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week. A lot of that is due to the four hypercalers coming after the close, which represent more than 15% of the index’s value. “I can’t remember a time where you had this many names in one shot,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading. “It’s going to be hectic.”

The results will have widespread implications for a market that’s largely looked past the impact of war in the Middle East and ridden the AI trade to new highs. Comments on capex will be crucial for chipmakers and memory storage stocks on a record run. Strong results from Seagate Technology Holdings Plc and NXP Semiconductors NV, manufacturers of memory and analog chips, respectively, fueled Wednesday’s US rebound. Both stocks surged around 18% in premarket trading and lifted peers. The Magnificent Seven were weaker for the most part.

“Buy-the-dip has been a profitable trade for some time now,” said Roger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish. “Any new news around the monetization of the AI capex already invested will be key, and what level of incremental capex is required in the AI arms race.”

“US companies are really good at quarterly earnings. They understand how to under-promise and over-deliver,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. “The absence of bad news elsewhere, the still-powerful competitive positions of the Mag7 and their own powerful earnings forecast profile may be emboldening bulls to take a view ahead of their earnings.”

It’s also Fed day. The central bank is poised to hold its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Investors will be looking for clues about how long the Fed is willing to maintain its patient posture, as well as what Powell says about his future, in what’s likely to be his final press conference as Fed chair. Traders in the Treasury options market are bracing for long-dated bond yields to surge past 5% as a rally in oil prices continues. A jump in energy prices has raised the possibility of stronger inflation and weaker economic growth, leaving markets to look out for tweaks to policymakers’ March statement.

The “base case is that the Fed will wait until June for meaningful changes in guidance, but the risk is that communications skew hawkish,” wrote Jim Reid, head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank.

In politics, key congressional Republicans are poised to break with Trump on his proposed 44% budget raise for the Pentagon in a rare act of defiance. Trump and Xi Jinping are headed toward a summit next month with a shared desire to stabilize ties, as tensions rise over Iranian oil and AI. A Bloomberg Economics analysis found that around 4% of US GDP is derived from industries that use rare earths.

Higher energy prices are exerting some pressure on European stocks, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2% in what has been a busy morning of earnings reports. UBS jumped after traders helped drive profit in the first quarter, while Deutsche Bank shares dropped after the lender increased its credit provisions for commercial real estate. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• UBS shares advance as much as 5.9% after the Swiss lender reported what analysts say was a strong set of results. With an earnings beat driven by the investment bank, the lender also signaled it could expand an existing $3b buyback
• Adidas shares soar as much as 8.3%, supported by 1Q revenue and operating profit beat that offered encouraging start to the year, with analysts waiting for details how events such as the soccer World Cup can contribute to sales growth
• Glanbia shares rally as much as 12% on the Irish stock exchange, hitting a record high, after the food and nutritional products company said it expects adjusted EPS growth this year to hit the high-end of its guided range
• Nexi shares gain as much as 7.8%, the most in more than a year, after the Financial Times reported that CVC is weighing a €9 billion bid to take the payment services provider private
• Amundi shares rise as much as 6.5% as the investment manager’s first-quarter earnings, assets under management and flows prove better than expected
• Fuchs shares rise as much as 10%, the most since October, after the German specialty chemicals company raised its sales guidance to reflect its intention to hike prices to offset raw material inflation caused by the conflict in the Middle East
• Airbus shares advance as much as 3.5% despite the planemaker missing analyst expectations on adjusted Ebit and free cash flow in the first quarter, alongside a low handover rate for deliveries
• Kambi gains as much as 22% after the Swedish sports betting company reported its latest earnings. Jefferies says the report shows progress across revenues and Ebita “despite customer migration and regulatory headwinds”
• GSK shares drop as much as 3.5%, underperforming the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the British drugmaker reported results for the first quarter which Intron Health analysts said were “mixed”
• Deutsche Bank shares drop as much as 3.6% after the German lender reported what analysts say are mixed results, with Morgan Stanley analyst pointing to capital miss and provisions as the key negatives
• AstraZeneca falls despite reporting better-than-expected sales and earnings for the first quarter, with Hargreaves Lansdown noting the results probably won’t provide a major catalyst for the stock
• Iberdrola shares fall as much as 2.2% after the Spanish power company reported net income for the first quarter that matched the average analyst estimate. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note quality of earnings concerns
• Hexatronic falls as much as 17%, the most since July, after the Swedish maker of fiber-optic cables reported that sales  fell more than some analyhsts forecast

Asian stocks fluctuate as traders await a series of upcoming central bank rate decisions in major economies, along with earnings from big artificial intelligence players. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between a gain of as much as 0.3% and a drop of up to 0.5%. Key stock benchmarks in South Korea, Hong Kong, India and mainland China rose, while Australia’s declined. Japan’s markets are shut for a public holiday. Elsewhere in the region, Victory Giant Technology Huizhou Co., a supplier to Nvidia Corp., rose after reporting a 28% year-on-year increase in its first-quarter sales, driven by stronger demand for printed circuit boards used in AI servers. Other tech earnings in focus include Luxshare Precision and Foxconn Industrial.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is up around 0.1%. The Aussie dollar is near the bottom of the G-10 leaderboard after core inflation metrics fell short of expectations.

In rates, global bonds are mostly lower, with US yields up around 1bps across the curve. Treasury yields are 1bp-1.5bp higher on the day with curve spread little changed; 10-year is near 4.36%. German and UK front-end yields are 3bp-4bp higher following German regional CPI data, with national print at 8am coming at 2.9%,  below the 3.1% expected.  Wednesday’s US session features Fed rate decision, likely the last of Chair Powell’s tenure, and news conference at 2pm and 2:30pm respectively. No change is expected, leaving investors focused on any comments about the impact of energy prices and supply-chain disruptions on inflation. Into the Fed policy decision, there has been a wave of flows in Treasury options targeting an increase in long-end yields to 5% or higher; front-end swaps price in just 3bp of easing by year end

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 3% at highest level since April 13; Brent crude futures briefly made their way back above $115 amid concern over a prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and US President Trump telling Iran it “better get smart soon.”  Spot gold and silver are showing respective losses of 0.6% and 0.1%. Bitcoin adds 1.6%. 

US economic data calendar slate includes March housing starts and trade balance and March preliminary durable goods orders and wholesale inventories (8:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.1%, CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.36%
• VIX +0.1 points at 17.97
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1198.89
• euro little changed at $1.1703
• WTI crude +3.5% at $103.42/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, U.S. officials said, targeting the regime’s coffers in a high-risk bid to compel a nuclear capitulation Tehran has long refused. WSJ
• War has imposed a heavy cost on Iran’s economy: more than a million people out of work, soaring food prices and a prolonged internet shutdown that has slammed online businesses. The question is how much more pain Iran’s leaders are willing to tolerate as they try to negotiate a favorable end to the war. WSJ
• The Fed’s widely expected to hold rates today, probably Jerome Powell’s final decision as chair. Instead, uncertainty over the outlook and his own future will dominate. BBG
• The UAE’s shock decision to quit OPEC blindsided its partners and will weaken the cartel’s grip on prices. Once oil starts flowing again, the move may set the stage for future price wars. BBG
• US gasoline inventories slumped by 8.5 million barrels last week, a month before driving season, the API is said to have reported. That would be the 11th straight decline and cut holdings to the lowest since November if confirmed by the EIA. BBG
• Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips has surged following the release of DeepSeek's V4 artificial intelligence model that runs on the Shenzhen-based tech firm's chips, with major Chinese internet firms rushing to secure orders. China's biggest internet firms including ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are reaching ‌out to Huawei about new chip orders, said the sources, who are familiar with the procurement discussions. RTRS
• China is poised to resume exporting jet fuel, gasoline and diesel from May, in a move that could significantly ease the worldwide shortages caused by the Iran conflict. FT
• The U.S. Department of Commerce last week ordered multiple chip equipment companies to halt certain tool shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker, Hua Hong, its latest action to slow the country's development of advanced chips, according to ‌two people familiar with the matter. RTRS
• Australian consumer prices surged in the first quarter as war in the Middle East drove up energy costs, while core inflation stayed uncomfortably high for policymakers, keeping pressure on for a rate hike next week. RTRS
• Republicans are exploring cutting capital gains taxes to appeal to voters ahead of midterms. A proposal to index gains for inflation may feature in a tax package later this year, though passage before November looks unlikely. BBG
• KPMG has closed its US government audit practice following the loss of an army contract: FT
• US President Trump's budget office sent a memo urging House Republicans to agree to partly reopen DHS, even without new cash for immigration enforcement: CNN 
• The White House is developing guidance to allow agencies to get around Anthropic's supply chain risk designation and onboard Mythos: Axios 
• US Senate votes 51-47 to block Cuba military action resolution.

Iran News

• US President Trump tells officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, WSJ reported citing sources; Trump has opted to continue squeezing Iran's economy, as other options would carry more risk than maintaining the blockade.
• US President Trump posted "Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT". Post also includes an image of President Trump holding a rifle, with explosions behind him; caption reads "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!".
• US President Trump said we are doing very well in the Middle East, King Charles agrees that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb.
• Iran's Vice Chairman of the National Security Council Boroujerdi said, on negotiations, that Ghalibaf "personally manages" them.
• Iran has pushed back on statements from the US regarding pipeline explosions, ISNA reports.
• Senior Pakistani official said mediation continues, working to narrow the gap between the US and Iran.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US Treasury has targeted Iran's financial infrastructure, disrupting tens of billions of dollars in Iranian revenue; Kharg Island is approaching maximum storage capacity, forcing Iran to reduce oil production.
• The Israeli army carries out a massive bombing operation east of Gaza City.
• IRGC said that new means of power ready against any new US attack, Press TV reported.
• Israel's Hayom newspaper estimates that Israel may accept a limited ceasefire with Lebanon, with the stipulation of the disbandment of Hezbollah, Al Hadath reported.
• An Israeli army commander said that we are not talking about destroying terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon, but rather destroying everything, according to Haaretz.
• A political aide to the IRGC said that we will respond to any new aggression with surprises and new capabilities, will burn America's giant ships at sea if they miscalculate again, Al Jazeera Mubasher reported.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan will engage with Iran for safe passage of ships.
• US Treasury has frozen USD 344mln in crypto linked to Iran, according to Fox Business citing officials.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks initially opened with a slight negative bias, amid the tech-led selloff stateside and the lack of progress between US and Iran. Sentiment improved throughout the APAC session, despite light newsflow. ASX 200 underperformed, with Health Care and Miners weighing on the index. Woodside Energy reported Q1 revenue that rose annually and maintained its FY guidance, helping support shares just shy of 2% gains. KOSPI reversed earlier losses, as the index shrugged off the tech-led selloff in US equities. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. outperformed, following a flurry of earnings and updates. For BYD, the Co. reported revenue that beat estimates, however net income fell annually. On the other hand, Hua Hong Semiconductor slipped after the US reportedly ordered numerous chip equipment companies to halt tool shipments to two of the co.’s facilities

Top Asian News

• Australian Quarterly Inflation Rate QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.6%, Low. 1.1%, High. 1.6%).
• Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%).
• Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Mar) Y/Y 3.3% (Prev. 3.3%).
• Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% (Prev. 0.2%).
• Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q1) Q/Q 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%).
• Australian Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Q1) Y/Y 3.5% (Prev. 3.4%).
• Australian Quarterly Inflation Rate YoY (Q1) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 3.6%).
• Australian Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 0.0%, Low. 0.9%, High. 1.6%).
• Australian Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 3.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) began the session on a weaker footing as geopolitical headlines dictate the tape with WSJ reporting "Trump told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran" and the US President posting this morning, "Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT". European sectors opened mixed, though they now show a negative bias as the index dipped lower. Energy tops the pile, and Tech also does well after NXP Semi's Q1 beat-and-raise after hours; Insurance and Retail lag. In terms of key movers: Adidas (+7%, Strong Q1, raised guidance) and UBS (+4%, NII, Top and bottom line beat, share buyback).

Top European News

• NIESR lowers the UK's 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 1.4%) and raises its inflation forecast to 4.7% (prev. 3.3%) at the start of 2027; the BoE may have to respond with big rate hikes if energy disruption is prolonged. The UK would face recession and inflation of 5% in a more adverse scenario in which oil prices spike to around USD 140/bbl and Hormuz remains closed. The Middle East shock will also worsen the UK’s public finances. Relative to the OBR's outlook, debt-servicing costs are likely to be higher, growth weaker, and pressure greater for additional support to compensate vulnerable households.
• UK Chancellor Reeves said the Government needs to make targeted interventions that will not have a lasting impact on interest rates.
• AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q1 2026 (USD): Revenue 15.3bln (exp. 14.9bln), adj. EPS 2.58 (exp. 2.55). Confirms guidance for FY26. "...remain on track to achieve our ambition for 2030 and beyond.".
• GSK (GSK LN) Q1 2026 (GBP) Adj. EPS 46.5p (exp. 43.2p), Turnover 7.63bln (prev. 7.51bln Y/Y), Gross Profit 1.87bln (prev. 1.93bln Y/Y); reaffirms 2026 guidance.
• Santander (SAN SM) - Q1 2026 (EUR): NII 5.46bln (exp. 4.97bln), EPS 0.36 (exp. 0.26), Total income 15.1bln (exp. 15bln), Net income 5.5bln (exp. 5.0bln), reaffirms 2026-28 targets. Net Loan provisions 3.23bln (exp. 3.17bln).
• UBS (UBSG SW) - Q1 2026 (USD): Revenue 14.2bln (exp. 13.2bln), Net income 3.04bln (exp. 2.42bln), confident in 2026 financial targets. Announces share buyback of up to USD 3bln by its Q2 results, aiming to do more by year-end.

FX

• DXY continues to outperform most G10 peers as the preferred hedge against higher oil prices. Many catalysts will dictate the path forward for the Greenback, FOMC and BoC today, then the BoE and ECB on Thursday.
• DXY remains supported by both the 100 and 200 DMAs at the 98.50 mark as crude benchmarks rise into a packed session. In addition to the Fed meeting, the Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair; the vote is set for 10:00EDT/15:00BST.
• A quick preview into the Fed, the Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, with focus squarely on Chair Powell’s guidance as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict. The recent surge in oil prices has pushed back rate cut expectations, with a Reuters poll showing a majority of economists now see easing delayed until at least September. Traders also seek details about Powell’s future, with this meeting expected to be his last as Fed Chair, providing Kevin Warsh is approved in time.
• EUR is also lower against the Buck but fares better than peers despite German state CPIs being indicative of a cooler mainland series. EUR remains supported by the 1.17 mark, and ING writes this morning, "Tomorrow’s ECB meeting should, in our view, largely meet market expectations.", aside from geopols, the next catalyst for the EUR will be the Fed meeting today.
• Antipodeans are the worst performers in the G10 space by a large margin after Aussie inflation for March was softer than expected and trimmed bets for hikes in Next week's RBA meeting. ING writes "The pullback in AUD looks mostly a function of stretched positioning rather than a real rethink of RBA expectations.

Central Banks

• RBNZ Governor Breman said the global environment continues to present headwinds, Q1 core inflation have remained stable within the 1-3% target band.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8608 vs exp. 6.8347 (prev. 6.8589).
• Banxico Governor Rodriguez said the Bank is close to finishing its rate cutting cycle that began in 2024.

Trade/Tariffs

• European lawmakers failed to reach a deal on watered-down landmark AI rules after 12 hours of negotiations, talks to resume next month.
• US Secretary of State Rubio expresses deep concerned by China's targeted economic pressure after the Barboa and Cristobal terminals decision.

Fixed Income

• A modestly bearish start in fixed benchmarks, given continued upside in the energy complex. Gains for energy occurring in recent trade despite a lack of fresh driver, and potentially as participants take another look at the WSJ reporting around a prolonged Hormuz closure, as while this is less risky than strikes, it does suggest a further extension of the ongoing supply disruption.
• Amidst this, fixed benchmarks are at lows. USTs to a 110-24+ base, but with downside of just a few ticks as we await the FOMC. The Fed is expected to maintain its rate in a 3.50-3.75% band, with focus on the guidance from Chair Powell in what may be his last meeting as Chair. As a reminder, the Senate Banking Committee is today expected to advance the nomination of Warsh to the broader Senate.
• Bunds are also at lows, down to 110-24+ with downside of a few ticks at most. Fleeting upside seen in EGBs as the initial German State CPIs are indicative of a cooler mainland series than the consensus for the 13:00BST mainland series suggests. Bunds spiked higher from 124.95 to 125.07, shy of the earlier 125.16 high. Albeit, the move swiftly pared and Bunds are back at lows.
• Gilts gapped lower by nine ticks, and have since slipped another 14 to an 86.54 trough. Action a function of the above, with Gilts trading broadly in-line with peers this morning. On the UK specifically, PM Starmer was not referred to the Privileges Committee. However, the number of Labour MPs who defied the whip and those who abstained without a clear reason is indicative of a moderate rebellion, not one sufficient to yet hit the threshold to trigger a leadership contest, but nonetheless an ominous sign into the May 7th local elections and further Mandelson-related communication releases in the weeks ahead.
• Italy sold EUR 5.5bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.15% 2031, 3.35% 2035 BTP and EUR 3.5bln vs exp. EUR 3.0-3.5bln 2036 CCTeu.
• Germany sold EUR 3.8bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2036 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 1.24x), average yield 3.08% (prev. 2.92%), retention 23.3% (prev. 23.66%)

Commodities

• WTI and Brent began the European morning with very mild gains, and have continued to extend higher. WTI Jun'26 topped the USD 102/bbl mark, to make a peak at USD 102.78/bbl (vs trough of USD 98.42/bbl); Brent Jul'26 resides near peaks at USD 106.16/bbl, which also marks the WTD high.
• Focus remains on the US-Iran situation, which, as it stands, does not appear to be moving towards peace. A WSJ article overnight, citing sources, suggested that President Trump told officials to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, attempting to squeeze Iran’s economy. This will ultimately guide traders to price in the possibility of long-term disruptions to energy, and hence explains the strength in energy this morning.
• Most recently, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They better get smart soon!”. Alongside this, an AI image of himself holding a rifle, with explosions behind him, the accompanying caption read "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!". A post which spurred about a bucks worth of upside in the complex.
• Spot gold is a touch lower this morning and currently resides towards the lower end of a USD 4,568-4,610/oz range. As has been the case, the yellow metal has been subdued by the stronger USD and inflationary implications of the war in Iran. Today’s focus will be on the Fed Policy Announcement, which is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with focus squarely on Chair Powellʼs guidance, as policymakers assess the inflationary impact of the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
• Base metals are mixed; 3M LME Aluminium is a touch firmer this morning, alongside strength in 3M LME Copper, whilst Palladium and Nickel move lower. 3M LME Copper holds above the USD 13k/t mark, within a USD 13,026-13,155.93/t range. Copper has advanced as Chinese fabs replenished stockpiles ahead of the Labor Day holiday, with restocking supporting prices and some buyers viewing recent declines on global growth concerns as an opportunity.

Geopolitics

• Ukraine is facing risk of tougher terms to get some EU loan payouts, Bloomberg reported citing sources; payouts would be dependent on the introduction of a tax change for businesses.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Mar Housing Starts, est. 1380k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Building Permits, est. 1390k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.37%, prior 0.8%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior -1.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Mar P Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9%
• 2:00 pm: United States Apr 29 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound), est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from a very sunny Frankfurt where summer has truly arrived. It's now been a week since I started wearing a WHOOP and Oura Ring to go alongside my trusty Apple Watch. With all these wearables I feel like the banking version of Mr T. Apologies to those not old enough to remember the A-team. Quick results are that I sleep very well for 4-5 hours and then it's pot luck what the last 2 hours bring! Lots of awake time and restless sleep. I've done various AI searches as to why that's the case. Maybe it's searching AI that causes it.

Anyway, hopefully you're a bit fresher than me as we enter FOMC decision day. Markets are entering it slightly on the back foot as oil prices have continued to grind higher over the last 24 hours while tech sentiment slipped after a report that OpenAI had missed internal targets. However even on the latter point Nasdaq futures have recovered more than half yesterday's losses overnight.  

Starting with the Middle East, the US and Iran seem to be no closer to resolution over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The WSJ reported last night that President Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockage of Iran, while Trump himself posted earlier yesterday that Iran “want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait” as soon as possible”. CNN reported that Iranian officials were expected to submit a revised peace proposal in the next few days. This uncertain backdrop saw Brent crude rise +2.80% to $111.26/bbl yesterday, its highest level in four weeks (flat overnight). So concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock have risen, not least as slightly further out the oil futures curve, the 3- to 6-month Brent futures are now trading within a dollar of the highs reached in late March.  

While higher oil prices and stagflation fears added to the risk-off sentiment, it was AI worries that were the bigger factor in driving yesterday’s equity losses. The major catalyst was a WSJ report that OpenAI had missed its internal revenue and user targets for the end of 2025. While OpenAI pushed back on the concerns, saying its consumer and enterprise businesses are “firing on all cylinders”, the news revived previous fears about whether the huge spending commitments will eventually pay off. So after reaching record highs on Monday, the S&P 500 (-0.49%), the NASDAQ (-0.90%) and the Mag 7 (-0.29%) all fell back, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (-3.58%) saw its biggest loss in four weeks. Moreover, given the integration of OpenAI’s in the AI-ecosystem, those concerns spread from software and cloud companies like Oracle (-4.05%) and Coreweave (-5.83%), to semiconductor equipment firms like Qnity Electronics (-4.35%) and Applied Materials (-5.87%). So that’s rather dampened the mood into this week’s earnings, particularly with four of the Magnificent 7 set to report their earnings tonight after the close. As mentioned at the top Nasdaq futures (+0.49%) have recovered more than half yesterday's losses this morning with S&P 500 (+0.19%) futures also edging higher.  

Asian markets are generally higher with the Hang Seng (+1.29%) leading the gains, followed by the KOSPI (+0.72%), the CSI (+0.64%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%). The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.23%) is lower even after slightly softer inflation.  

Australian CPI rose by +4.6% year-on-year in March, marginally below the anticipated +4.8%, but it increased significantly from the 3.7% recorded in the previous quarter. Core inflation, as indicated by the trimmed mean CPI, rose by +3.3% in March, remaining steady from the previous month while still surpassing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) annual target of 2% to 3%. Q1 trimmed mean came in at 0.81% qoq around a tenth softer than expectations but Q2 so far has continued to see oil prices high so there won't be too much comfort with that print. For now, yields on the 3-year policy-sensitive Australian government bonds are down by -4.5 basis points, currently standing at 4.68% as we go to print. The probability of a hike next week based on futures are down 15pp to 68%. Elsewhere in the region, Japanese markets are closed today due to a public holiday.

While yesterday was relatively quiet in terms of Iran newsflow, another major headline for oil markets came with the UAE’s announcement that it would leave OPEC on May 1. They’ve been a member since 1967 and are the third-biggest oil producer in the group, producing around 3.5mn barrels per day before the conflict, accounting for about 12% of OPEC’s output. The UAE had in the past pushed to increase its production quota within OPEC given its investments in new oil production capacity in recent years. While the near-term impact of the move is likely to be negligible, with closure of the Strait of Hormuz the limiting factor, longer-term this could allow the UAE to increase its oil production and reduce OPEC’s influence over the global oil market. Oil futures reacted to these potential long-term ramifications, with the 12-month ahead Brent future edging -0.34% lower to $79.87/bbl yesterday despite front-month prices surging higher.

Looking ahead to today, the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. They’re widely expected to keep rates on hold, so the focus will be on their forward guidance for what they’re thinking about future policy. Our US economists think the key question is whether they formally adopt two-sided language about the policy outlook in the statement, and whether Chair Powell indicates a more balanced risk assessment in the press conference. Their base case is that the Fed will wait until June for meaningful changes in guidance, but the risk is that communications skew hawkish. See their full preview here for more.

Ahead of that, US Treasury yields moved higher as inflation concerns persisted, with investors dialling back the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year. In fact, the probability of a cut by December was down to just 24% by the close, having been at 35% on Monday, so it’s seen as an increasingly unlikely prospect. The fading pricing of Fed cuts was also supported by the Conference Board’s consumer confidence print yesterday which surprised on the upside in April, rising to its highest level of 2026 so far at 92.8 (vs. 89.0 expected). So US consumers showing impressive resilience to the energy shock, though we should note that most of the survey was conducted before the latest rise in wholesale gasoline prices since mid-April, which reached a new post-2022 high yesterday. This backdrop saw the 2yr Treasury yield (+3.8bps) rise to 3.84%, though the 10yr yield (+0.6bps) was more stable at 4.35%.  

A pessimistic macro mood was clearer in Europe yesterday. Matters weren’t helped by the ECB’s latest bank lending and inflation expectation surveys, which pointed to upside inflation risks combined with downside growth risks. Notably, 1yr and 3yr inflation expectations surged from 2.5% to +4.0% and +3.0% respectively,  their highest levels since 2023. Longer-term expectations were more stable at +2.4% (up from 2.3%). Meanwhile, the Bank Lending Survey showed a clear deterioration, pointing to the tightest credit conditions since early 2024. So it was a difficult backdrop, and inflation fears saw markets fully price in an ECB rate hike by the June meeting again. And in turn, both equities and bonds fell back for a second day, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.37%), DAX (-0.27%) and CAC 40 (-0.46%) moving lower, whilst yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+3.7bps) and BTPs (+5.8bps) all rose.  

Here in the UK, yesterday saw 10yr gilt yields close above 5% for the first time since 2008, moving up +3.2bps to 5.00%. In part, that was driven by those wider inflation concerns as oil prices crept higher, but the political speculation around PM Keir Starmer kept swirling as well. Indeed, MPs voted on whether Starmer should face a parliamentary enquiry about whether he misled the House of Commons over the vetting for Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador. That vote failed to pass yesterday evening given Labour’s large majority, but the story has showed no sign of leaving the headlines, and comes as Starmer faces another important test with the local elections next week. It’s a story the gilt market has been following closely, given expectations that Starmer’s successor might loosen the fiscal rules and preside over more gilt issuance.   

Looking at the day ahead, the main events include policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. Data releases include US March durable goods orders, housing starts, Germany April CPI, Italy’s April economic sentiment, Eurozone March M3 money supply, April economic confidence. And earnings will be in strong focus, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta all reporting after the close.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 08:29

Gabe Plotkin Plans ETF Comeback After Melvin Capital Collapse

After closing his hedge fund in the aftermath of the meme-stock upheaval, Gabe Plotkin is exploring a new investment structure, according to Bloomberg.

He’s looking to place a portion of his personal holdings into an exchange-traded fund, using a method that has become increasingly attractive for wealthy investors seeking to postpone capital gains taxes.

As co-chair of the Charlotte Hornets, Plotkin is expected to contribute most of the starting assets for a proposed vehicle called the Snowball ETF, according to people familiar with the plans. The fund—initially filed late last year—would be built through a “351 conversion,” a mechanism that allows an existing basket of investments to be transferred into an ETF format. This approach has gained popularity because it can offer tax deferral along with the flexibility and liquidity associated with ETFs.

Bloomberg reports that he first drew widespread attention during the 2021 retail-trading frenzy, when his firm, Melvin Capital Management, suffered major losses from bets against so-called meme stocks. Retail investors, many coordinating online during the pandemic, pushed up shares of companies like GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.—positions Melvin had expected to fall. The resulting losses forced the closure of a fund that had once managed roughly $13 billion and delivered strong returns for years.

Plotkin resurfaced in the news again in 2023 when he helped lead the purchase of Michael Jordan’s majority stake in the Hornets.

The strategy behind the new ETF relies on a provision in the tax code—Section 351—that allows investors to contribute appreciated assets without immediately triggering taxes. Once inside the ETF, those holdings can be rebalanced more efficiently, potentially reducing future tax burdens while also benefiting from the tradability of the ETF structure.

Some of the assets expected to seed the Snowball ETF reportedly carry unrealized gains. The fund is targeting a launch window of late this year or early 2027 and will pursue a focused, actively managed equity approach under Plotkin’s leadership at Snowball Advisors.

Across Wall Street, strategies designed to minimize taxes—often grouped under the idea of “tax alpha”—are gaining momentum. Among them, 351 conversions have stood out for their rapid adoption, drawing increasing attention from regulators as their use expands.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 07:45

$43,000 Front-Row Seats: How Soccer Fans Are Being Priced Out Of World Cup

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

First-round match ticket: $280 to $43,000.

Stadium daily parking pass: $150 to $600.

Public transportation to venues: $100 or more in some cities.

In-person 2026 FIFA World Cup experience: Priceless, or somewhere between a mortgage payment and a year or two of college, depending on who you ask.

Cristiano Ronaldo of team Al-Nassr FC scores the team's fourth goal during the Saudi Pro League match between Al Nassr and Al Khaleej at Al Awwal Park in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Nov. 23, 2025. Abdullah Ahmed/Getty Images

Americans and international soccer fans alike suffered serious sticker shock over the cost of attending the biggest sporting event on the globe this summer, and that’s before calculating airfare and accommodations.

This year’s event features 48 teams and 104 matches in 16 host cities across the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

So far, FIFA’s dynamic pricing system for more than 1 million tickets has even the die-hard fanatics questioning whether this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is worth taking on months—or years—of debt.

Out of Reach

Joyanne Howell of Toronto tried to plan a vacation with her son around the 2026 World Cup. She hoped to see the opening match in Mexico on June 11, and then catch a group play match in Monterrey featuring Portugal, Morocco, Japan, or South Africa. The trip would have exceeded $15,000, with event tickets the largest expense.

“It’s been a lifelong dream of mine to attend the World Cup,” Howell told The Epoch Times. “The corporate greed is at an all-time high, and it’s ruining what used to be a wonderful event. I’m not interested in supporting FIFA in this.”

On top of the sky-high ticket prices, Howell added, there’s the new match format—which adds several subpar squads to the games, increasing the number of teams from 32 to 48—and current global instability.

“It just doesn’t seem worth it to invest in this World Cup,” she said.

Mexico’s Israel Reyes and Belgium’s Jeremy Doku during a friendly soccer game between the Mexican national team and Belgian national soccer team, the Red Devils, in Chicago, on April 1, 2026, in preparation for the 2026 World Cup. Dirk Waem / Belga Mag / Belga / AFP via Getty Images

Dean Foti, a coaching director for a regional youth soccer organization in upstate New York, said complaints about unreasonable World Cup ticket prices were especially spirited among coaches and families who had hoped to visit a venue this summer.

“Unfortunately, the common fan has been priced out of attending,” he told The Epoch Times.

He said many folks also didn’t like FIFA’s initial lottery, in which tickets were sold by venue and date even though the matchups were unknown at the time.

“Haven’t met one yet that said, ‘You won’t believe what a great deal I just got on World Cup tickets,” he said.

Dynamic Pricing

FIFA, a nonprofit serving as professional soccer’s world governing body, entered into individual agreements with host cities and venues to rent the stadiums. It set the initial prices of tickets, which have been sold in phases to adjust to market demand.

The organization maintains that most of the revenue from ticket sales, television broadcasting rights, and licensed merchandise sales covers the cost of organizing and governing more than 200 leagues, competitions, and programs across six continents.

A glance at the StubHub website shows high prices and fluctuation: a nosebleed seat at the Qatar versus Switzerland match on June 13 in Santa Clara, California, for $280; a front-row seat near center circle for the United States against Australia on June 19 in Seattle for $43,900; tickets for the July 14 semi-final in Arlington, Texas, starting at $2,064.

The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Exposition Park is seen in Los Angeles on March 5, 2026. The venue will host the FIFA Fan Festival during the World Cup, as well as track and field events and the LA28 Summer Olympics opening ceremony. Mario Tama/Getty Images

For the U.S. squad’s other two group play matches, SeatGeek lists the June 12 game against Paraguay at $1,500 and against Turkey on June 25 at $1,366. Both games will be held in Los Angeles.

Online ticket sites also show that parking fees in some of the U.S. cities start at $100 and increase by location and phase of competition. Vehicle spots for Argentina versus Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, Missouri, range from $150 to $600, while the cost at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium for a June 30 quarterfinal match is $225.

An American Concept

Keith Pagello, founder of Kentucky-based analytics company TicketData, said FIFA adopted this method of ticket sales from the major American professional sports leagues, which command sky-high prices for playoff games.

The global soccer organization, he added, is still advertising last-minute sales, in which a limited number of tickets for mediocre seats are released for $1,100 or more “to portray the image of scarcity.”

“I’ve never seen so many last-minute sales,” Pagello told The Epoch Times. “But they’re certainly not softening their price at this point.”

He said the most outrageous prices listed by resellers right now, such as $43,000 for front row at the United States versus Australia, were not set by FIFA.

“Anybody can ask any price for any ticket,” he said.

Fans of Congo cheer their team during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Play-Off tournament final match between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Jamaica at Estadio Guadalajara in Zapopan, Mexico, on March 31, 2026. Agustin Cuevas/Getty Images

It may be too soon to determine whether FIFA and resellers can command such high prices, or if they’ll drop closer to the event.

“The big question is, how many tickets do they still have left?” Pagello said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if 10,000 seats still sit in FIFA’s pocket for many of the games.”

Pagello’s data, much of which is publicly available on his website, indicates that after fans from the host nations, fans from Brazil and Argentina are buying the most tickets, based on the prices to see those two national squads play.

Hotel rooms and lodging near the venue sites typically exceed $200 in the summer months. Several major sports publications have reported that the price of accommodation hasn’t yet spiked to the degree initially predicted in part because fans hesitate to pay so much for tickets, so that situation could change either way in the weeks ahead.

Government Pushback

Federal lawmakers also took offense to the high admission prices. In a March 10 letter to FIFA President Gianni Infantino, 69 members of Congress said, “The extreme high demand for World Cup tickets should not be a green light for price gouging at the expense of the people who make the World Cup the most watched sporting event in the world.”

FIFA President Gianni Infantino poses on the red carpet prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Draw at John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington on Dec. 5, 2025. Federal lawmakers recently asked Infantino to address the World Cup’s high admission prices. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The lawmakers said the federal government will spend $625 million to reimburse municipal law enforcement agencies, and each U.S. host city will spend about $150 million on infrastructure improvements, transportation, and security preparations. Locals who are fortunate enough to afford tickets have already paid taxes for these services.

Moreover, because FIFA prohibits local sponsorships, host cities are collectively facing a $250 million shortfall for this event. They may have to charge admission to World Cup Fan Fests, which have traditionally been free.

“We urge FIFA to take immediate corrective action to address the harms caused by its use of dynamic pricing, which has transformed the world’s largest sporting event into an exclusionary, profit-driven enterprise at the direct expense of fans, host communities, and public taxpayers,” the letter said.

Ticket prices aren’t the only high cost steaming elected leaders. On April 17, New Jersey Transit announced that round-trip rail tickets from Manhattan to MetLife Stadium will be $150. The New York/New Jersey World Cup host committee will also offer a round-trip shuttle bus, with tickets costing $80 each.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 07:20

Goldman's State Of U.S. Consumer Outlook Gets More Grim

Goldman consumer analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog cut their 2026 discretionary cash-inflow growth forecast for the second time this year, citing a worsening squeeze on U.S. households as slower disposable income growth collides with higher fuel prices at the pump. The revision points to a softening among cash-strapped consumers as the US-Iran conflict enters its third month.

McShane and Herzog cut their 2026 U.S. discretionary cash inflow growth to 3.7% from the previous forecast of 4.2% in early April, as slower disposable income growth and the national average gasoline price over $4 per gallon squeeze household spending power.

Their revision reflects a lower forecast for disposable personal income growth of 4.7%, down from 5.0%, as tax cut benefits from President Trump's OBBBA are now seen largely offsetting higher capital gains tax payments, leaving the overall tax bill roughly unchanged from last year.

The largest drag on consumers is energy, as Goldman analysts at the start of the week raised their fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $80, citing ongoing disruptions in Persian Gulf production, a delayed normalization of Gulf exports to late June, and a slower recovery timeline for output.

"Accordingly, we now expect energy spending to grow by 14.4% in 2026 (vs. 12.3% prior) to reflect higher energy futures," the analysts said.

They warned that $100 Brent will create a 50-basis-point headwind to aggregate U.S. discretionary spending power in 2026, with working-poor households taking the brunt of the hit, at about 135 bps.

Here's their current view on the consumer for 2026:

Our economists expect a total tax benefit of around $75-90bn from the OBBBA but roughly unchanged tax bill y/y, resulting in a limited tailwind for consumer spending. Based on our economists' forecasts, we now expect +4.7% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +5.0% when we last updated in early April), following +4.4% DPI growth in 2025, which is ahead of historical levels (i.e., 2009-2019 average annual growth of 4.0%).

We expect this to translate into a lower net household cash inflow of +4.2% in 2026 (vs. 4.6% prior from our early April analysis), representing a slight improvement over the +4.1% growth in 2025. Elevated interest rates were a meaningful burden on the US consumer over the past few years and our economists continue expect two 25bps rate cuts in 2026. Accordingly, we model 7.8% growth in mortgage equity withdrawals (MEW) and 7.7% growth in borrowings for 2026. We continue to anticipate modest relief from a slightly more favorable interest rate environment; our forecast for financial obligations remains unchanged at +14.3% of DPI in 2026, compared to +14.5% in 2025.

We model essential expenditures to grow by +7.4% in 2026 (unchanged), well above the +4.3% growth seen in 2025. This is predicated on +14.4% growth in spending on energy goods and services (vs. +12.3% prior) and +5.3% growth in food spending (vs. +6.6% prior), both up from +1.1% and +3.7% growth, respectively, in 2025. We raise our energy goods and services spending expectation to reflect higher energy futures, while we slightly temper our food inflation expectation due to lower than expected Feb data. This, coupled with our lower DPI growth assumption, translates into +3.7% discretionary cash inflow growth in 2026 (vs. +4.2% prior), representing a marginal sequential decline compared to +4.0% growth in 2025.

By income quintile, higher gasoline prices will disproportionately burden the bottom-income quintile, who spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile. We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate. Overall, pre-savings DCF expectations for 2026 have moved lower by 30-40bps across all other quintiles due to the lower expected DPI growth.

Our adjusted discretionary cash flow growth takes consumers estimated savings rate into account. Consistent with historical patterns where consumers dissave to cover higher energy costs, we now expect the savings rate to be lower than previously estimated in 2026, now at 4.3% of DPI (vs. 4.5% prior), below 2025 savings levels of 4.6% of DPI. Ultimately, a nearly 40bps lower discretionary cash inflow for 2026 relative to our prior forecast is balanced by a lower savings rate to drive adjusted DCF growth (a proxy for PCE growth) of +4.2% in 2026 (unchanged), though still below the +5.1% growth seen in 2025.

Exhibit 2:

Exhibit 3:

Exhibit 4:

Exhibit 5/6:

Exhibit 7:

Exhibit 8:

Exhibit 9:

Exhibit 10:

"Given the continued volatility in oil prices, we present a hypothetical sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact on adj. discretionary cash flow for every 10%, 15%, and 20% increase in energy goods and services spending relative to our current modeled assumptions. Additionally, we believe higher energy prices would impact consumer spending power, and we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds," the analysts said.

Exhibit 12:

Exhibit 13:

Exhibit 14:

What could change Goldman's consumer outlook is a U.S.-Iran peace deal. But the UAE's exit from OPEC adds another downside risk for crude: the cartel's ability to defend prices is weakened just as any ceasefire and normalization of Hormuz traffic could send Brent and WTI prices cratering. 

Professional subscribers can read Goldman's full "State of the US Consumer" note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 06:55

Germany Scrambles For Polish Oil Route As Russia Halts Druzhba Flows

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk.

Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from Russian crude, and this latest disruption exposes how little slack remains in the system.

Kazakhstan shipped 2.146 million metric tons to Germany through Druzhba last year, up 44% from 2024, with another 730,000 tons delivered in the first quarter.

Poland says it has the technical capacity to handle additional flows, but port access, shipping schedules, crude availability and refinery configurations all matter, too. Replacing pipeline crude with seaborne barrels is rarely a one-for-one swap.

The episode also revives an old vulnerability in European oil security in that the infrastructure can be diversified on paper and still remain concentrated in practice, with Druzbha still running through Russia.

Alternatives do exist for Schwedt, but they are costlier and more complicated. The refinery has increasingly leaned on crude arriving through Baltic routes and Germany’s Rostock port, but those channels are limited.

There is a bigger signal here for the oil market. What looks like a regional supply disruption adds to a broader premium around logistics security, not just crude supply. In Europe, barrels are one question. Moving them is another.

And that distinction matters increasingly for pricing, refinery margins, and the value of secure non-Russian supply routes.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 06:30

Most Americans Expect Prolonged Conflict With Iran

Most U.S. adults oppose the war with Iran and say the U.S. should make a deal to end the war as fast as possible. In a recent survey of 1,700 adults, conducted by the Economist and YouGov between April 17 and 20, only 12 percent said they thought that such a deal would be reached in the next two weeks.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, roughly half (48 percent) of respondents thought that it was either very or somewhat unlikely that the U.S. would manage to strike a deal with Iran to end the war in the two-week timeframe. A further 41 percent said that there was a 50-50 chance of such an outcome.

You will find more infographics at Statista

This pattern held true for both Democrats and Republicans, albeit with a higher share of Democrats saying it was unlikely (61 percent compared to 31 percent of Republicans) that a deal would be reached to end the war in Iran. Where 31 percent of Democrats were unsure, saying that there was a 50-50 chance, 49 percent of Republicans took this view.

Seven in ten Americans said the U.S. should make a deal to end the war as quickly as possible, while two in ten said they were not sure and one in ten opposed the idea. However, when asked about the conditions for ending the war, Americans were more divided: 35 percent said the U.S. should make a deal even if Iran does not give up its enriched uranium, as 34 percent said it should not.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 05:45

After Record $19.50 Premium, Saudis Eye Sharp Cut To June Asia Prices

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The world’s top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, is expected to slash its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude loading for Asia in June from the record-highs for May as the premiums of the Middle Eastern benchmarks eased this month.

Saudi oil giant Aramco is widely expected to announce in early May a reduction of the OSP of the flagship Arab Light crude by between $5 and $12 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude going to Asia, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed on Tuesday.

The Arab Light grade could see its OSP falling to a premium of $7.50-$14.50 over the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks for June, compared to a record-high premium of $19.50 for loadings for Asia in May.

In early April, Saudi Arabia hiked the price of Arab Light loading for Asia in May to a record-high premium over the Middle Eastern benchmarks as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz upended oil flows and roiled markets and prices.

The premium for May was the highest ever in Saudi pricing, although it was below the $40 per barrel premium over Oman/Dubai that some refiners and traders had expected.

Saudi Arabia typically announces around the fifth of each month its crude pricing for the following month and doesn’t comment on price changes.

The pricing announcement follows the monthly OPEC+ gatherings at which the producers, led by Saudi Arabia, decide how to maintain market stability.

For the June pricing, the Reuters survey participants expect all other grades to also see price reductions of between $5 and $12 per barrel in the premium to Oman/Dubai.

The wide gap of $7 per barrel, in the expectations of the market suggests that traders and refiners in Asia aren’t sure how Saudi Arabia would approach the June pricing, as the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and only the Yanbu port on the Red Sea is regularly shipping out Saudi light crude to international markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 05:00

NATO Mulls Nixing Annual Summits, Wary Of 'Trump Drama' Overshadowing

Fresh reporting in Reuters says that NATO leadership is mulling ending its practice of holding annual summits as the Trump presidency has "cast a long shadow" over such meetings and as member states are looking for "less drama".

For example, at the 2018 summit Trump threatened to walk ⁠out after bitterly complaining over allies' low defense spending. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general at the time, wrote in a recently published memoir, "Had he made good on his threat to leave ​in protest, we would have been left to pick up the pieces of a shattered NATO."

via Associated Press

Also, in 2019 he exited summit early while lambasting then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "two-faced" after Trudeau was caught on a hot mike blasting Trump's behavior.

One report recalls of the scene:

Footage emerged late on Tuesday that appears to show world leaders joking about Trump at the summit, which has been marked by sharp disagreements over spending and future threats, including Turkey’s role in the alliance and China, as well as a clash of personalities that triggered a flurry of incendiary language being deployed by leaders.

The video shows leaders including Trudeau, Johnson, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and Princess Anne at the Buckingham Palace event on Tuesday evening.

In audio caught on a nearby microphone, Johnson asks Macron: “Is that why he was late?” before Trudeau interjects: “He was late because he takes a 40-minute press conference off the top.”

Trudeau adds: “Oh, yeah, yeah yeah. He announced … ” before he is cut off by Macron, who speaks animatedly to the group. Macron’s back is to the camera and his words are inaudible.

After an edited cut in the film, the footage later shows an incredulous Trudeau telling the group: “You just watched his team’s jaws drop to the floor.”

In his second administration, President Trump's fierce criticisms have only grown, especially related to lack of help in the Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis, labeling the alliance a "paper tiger" and charging member states with being "free-loaders".

One European diplomat expressed an increasingly common viewpoint among members: "Better to have fewer summits than bad summits," the official said.

And, per Reuters: "Some diplomats and analysts have long argued that annual summits create pressure for eye-catching results that distracts from longer-term planning."

The 2019 Trudeau hot mic incident:

.@JustinTrudeau, @EmmanuelMacron, @BorisJohnson and other VIPs shared a few words at a Buckingham Palace reception Tuesday. No one mentions @realDonaldTrump by name, but they seem to be discussing his lengthy impromptu press conferences from earlier in the day. (Video: Host Pool) pic.twitter.com/dVgj48rpOP

— Power & Politics (@PnPCBC) December 3, 2019

For now at least, NATO leadership is insisting it will be business as usual and these annual summits will proceed. "NATO will continue to hold regular meetings of Heads of State and Government, and between summits NATO Allies will continue to consult, plan and take decisions about our shared security," a NATO official told Reuters. But Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric is unlikely to cease anytime soon, setting up for more drama to come.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 04:15

25,000 Ground Robots In Battlefield Planned By Ukraine For Frontline Logistics

Authored by Mrigakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

In a move toward fully autonomous warfare, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry plans to procure 25,000 unmanned ground vehicles by mid-2026. This initiative aims to replace human soldiers with robotic systems for all frontline logistics and double the 2025 deployment rate.

Reportedly, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that the ultimate goal is to have 100 percent of frontline logistics handled by robotic systems.

BIZON-L ground robot.DevDroid/YouTube

The strategy is already yielding results. In March alone, Ukrainian forces logged over 9,000 missions using ground robots for everything from delivering ammunition to evacuating the wounded.

A key development in this tech surge is the formal codification of the Bizon-L logistics robot. 

$330 million invested

Following a meeting with domestic manufacturers, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced a strategic shift to stabilize the industry by signing UGV contracts through 2027. 

This move supports Ukraine’s ambitious goal to transition 100% of frontline logistics to robotic systems, a transition already well underway.

These unmanned systems are proving vital for high-risk logistics and medical evacuations, insulating soldiers from the most dangerous aspects of frontline operations.

To streamline its defense supply chain, Ukraine has invested roughly $330 million (14 billion hryvnia) since January to deliver over 181,000 systems, including drones and electronic warfare units, via a direct digital procurement platform.

Central to this surge is the Bizon-L, a logistics robot that was recently codified under NATO standards.

The Bizon-L is a heavy-lifter designed for the mud and snow of the Donbas.

This high-capacity UGV can transport 300 kilograms (661 pounds) over a 50-kilometer range and is now cleared for use by both Ukrainian forces and international allies.

Utilizing a combination of Starlink satellite data and radio links protected by thermal shielding, the Bizon-L is stepping in to perform last-mile deliveries — tasks previously handled by soldiers who were frequently targeted by Russian FPV drones. 

Central to this surge is the Bizon-L, a logistics robot that was recently codified under NATO standards.

The Bizon-L is a heavy-lifter designed for the mud and snow of the Donbas.

This high-capacity UGV can transport 300 kilograms (661 pounds) over a 50-kilometer range and is now cleared for use by both Ukrainian forces and international allies.

Utilizing a combination of Starlink satellite data and radio links protected by thermal shielding, the Bizon-L is stepping in to perform last-mile deliveries — tasks previously handled by soldiers who were frequently targeted by Russian FPV drones. 

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 03:30

Israelis Outraged After Govt Sent Vital Arrow Missiles To Germany Mid-Iran War

There's growing outrage and political division in Israel after news emerged that the government and defense ministry fulfilled a weapons contract with Germany, sending vital Arrow air defense missiles to Berlin during the middle of the Iran war.

At the very moment the missiles were being delivered, Israeli citizens were dying under Iran's fierce ballistic missile retaliation attacks during the height of Operation Epic Fury.

Source: Israel Aerospace Industries/UPI

The Jerusalem Post has "confirmed that Israel continued to send Arrow missiles to Berlin mid-war as part of a contract between the countries, even though Israel had a shortage of its own interceptors," the publication writes.

"Some commentators upon learning this information have accused the Israeli government of allowing at least five persons to die and hundreds to be injured when the IDF did not use the Arrow to defend from certain attacks," the report adds.

The Arrow was developed jointly with the United States and is designed to intercept long-range missiles, serving as the highest tier of Israel's multi-layered defense.

The first Arrow was delivered to Germany in 2025, despite that starting with the last June war, it has been an open secret that Israel is running low on interceptors, and that it takes a significant amount of time to replenish them.

In April, we featured analysis describing how Israel only in the last few years grew to become Germany's largest arms partner in a 'mega deal':

Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.

Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.

Israeli officials have sought to downplay the Arrow deliveries for Germany, in some cases arguing that the benefits for Israel actually saves civilian lives - based on other defense items Israel gets in return.

Also, as JPost writes further, "A Maariv report indicated Israeli sources were concerned that if they did not maintain the pace of Arrow deliveries to Germany, it could harm relations or the already signed and potential future defense deals."

"The Post understands that in addition to general economic benefits, and economies of scale benefits heavily increasing Israel's own volume of Arrows for self-defense, that the deal with Germany provided two other crucial items," the publication adds.

The fact that much of Israel's defense is underwritten by the US taxpayer also provides an ultimate backstop from Israeli leaders' perspective. The longer the Iran war persists, and as more Israeli arms exports leave port, the more the controversy is likely to grow.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Anti-immigration AfD Party Soars To New Record High Support; Poll Finds

Via Remix News,

The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has jumped to a new record high in a recent poll conducted by the opinion research institute Insa. In the poll, the AfD increased its lead over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU).

According to the “Sunday trend” poll, which is conducted on a weekly basis for the Bild am Sonntag, the AfD has reached a peak of 28 percent, extending its lead over the CDU/CSU alliance. While the party only jumped one point from the previous week, it not only marked the AfD’s highest value ever, but it also means the AfD is closing in on the psychological 30 percent it has long sought.

Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BamS: AfD 28 % | CDU/CSU 24 % | SPD 14 % | GRÜNE 12 % | DIE LINKE 11 % | BSW 3 % | FDP 3 % | Sonstige 5 %
➤ Übersicht: https://t.co/Gzilw3J3L9
➤ Verlauf: https://t.co/vnhJf7ub9S pic.twitter.com/jhBgFgmCqQ

— Wahlrecht.de (@Wahlrecht_de) April 25, 2026

The CDU/CSU remained unchanged at 24 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) maintains its position at 14 percent. The Green Party slipped to 12 percent after losing one percentage point, and the Left Party remains steady at 11 percent. Both the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the FDP would currently fail to enter the Bundestag, as each sits at three percent.

Despite the AfD’s high polling, all other parties continue to say they will not form an alliance with the AfD, which means the party is effectively locked out of power. Unless the AfD can find a coalition party that can give it a majority, the party will remain on the sidelines. However, if the AfD can maintain its current support or even increase it further, forming a coalition among the other parties could prove increasingly difficult in the future.

Insa is not the only polling firm showing the growth of the AfD. In a recent Yougov poll, the AfD reached 27 percent of the vote, while the CDU fell to just 23 percent.

The AfD’s surge comes at a time when soaring energy prices have left the German economy reeling, especially following the war in Iran, which has sent diesel prices between €2.20 and €2.50 a liter.

AfD co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, has become increasingly opposed to U.S. government actions. He quickly denounced the U.S. attack on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, labeling it a “violation of international law.” And in February, right after the attack on Iran, he expressed his “disappointment” at Trump’s broken promise to not start wars and blamed Israel for “dragging” the United States into war against Iran.

In March, Chrupalla also condemned what he said were Israel’s war crimes against Palestinians and Iranians, and just this month, Chrupalla called for the closure of U.S. bases in Germany. Even conservative Germans have long been skeptical of Trump, while the majority of Germans are deeply negative on the U.S. president.

Polling shows that 65 percent of Germans believe that Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza. According to ARD-DeutschlandTREND in March 2026, 60 percent of Germans consider the military offensive against Iran by the U.S. and Israel to be “not justified.” That result may look even worse now as energy prices have slammed the German economy.

In other words, Chrupalla may be adopting the positions that are sitting well with the German public.

At the same time, crime statistics released about a week ago show that migrant violence continues to dominate in Germany, with sexual crimes and serious violence in 2025 growing compared to the record numbers seen in 2024. Overall, crime fell slightly compared to 2024, but serious crimes grew. Most of the decline was due to the legalization of marijuana in late 2024, which resulted in a drop in drug offenses.

Foreigners account for approximately 42 percent of all violent crimes.

The AfD is calling for mass deportations, increased funding for police, an immigration moratorium, cutting pro-migrant NGO funding, and stricter laws to deter criminals.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/29/2026 - 02:00

12 Signs That The Relentless Decline Of Our Society Is Accelerating

Authored by Michael Snyder via End Of The American Dream,

I have got some really crazy stuff to share with you in this article. For more than a decade and a half, I have been writing about the decline of our society. Sadly, over that period of time there has been an inexorable deterioration of our culture. We no longer agree on a generally accepted set of moral values, all of our major institutions are crumbling, and chaos reigns in the streets. Every single day I see more indications that conditions are getting even worse. I always hoped that by exposing what was really going on out there that it would inspire people to push for change. But instead, conditions just keep degenerating year after year.

If we love our society, what is happening to it should deeply sadden all of us. If our leaders had made much different decisions, we could have gotten much different results.

But now things are totally out of control and the clock is ticking. The following are 12 signs that the relentless decline of our society is accelerating…

#1 So far in 2026, there have been 116 mass shootings in the United States. Unfortunately, we are 36 percent ahead of last year’s blistering pace. And it appears that there are potentially a lot more mass shooters out there, because one recent survey discovered that 19.3 million Americans have seriously thought about shooting someone else…

About 19.3 million American adults, roughly the combined populations of New York City and Los Angeles, have at some point seriously thought about shooting another person. That’s the stunning extrapolation from a new national survey published in JAMA Network Open, an effort to put a number on this poorly understood group and frame it as a focus for gun violence prevention.

#2 If it seems like there are crazy people everywhere around you, that is because there really are crazy people everywhere around you. These days, you never know what is going to set someone off, and the results can be absolutely tragic. For example, just a few days ago a crazed man in Louisiana shot and killed eight children. Seven of them were his own kids…

A man killed eight children — seven of his own kids and one of their cousins — early Sunday in a mass shooting in Shreveport, Louisiana, officials said. The shooter is also dead after police pursued him, and they exchanged fire. It was the nation’s deadliest shooting in more than two years.

The children were killed in what police described as an “execution-style” shooting. They included five girls and three boys, ranging in age from 3 to 11, the coroner’s office confirmed. According to the office, their mothers identified the children as: Jayla Elkins, 3; Shayla Elkins, 5; Kayla Pugh, 6; Layla Pugh, 7; Markaydon Pugh, 10; Sariahh Snow, 11; Khedarrion Snow, 6; and Braylon Snow, 5.

#3 Things are so bad that even disabled Americans are gunning people down. In fact, a quadruple amputee has been charged with murder after he shot a front-seat passenger while he was driving a vehicle in Maryland…

Dayton Webber once said he believed God put him on this planet to inspire others to believe they could achieve anything they wanted to.

Now, the first quadruple amputee in American Cornhole League history faces murder charges after being accused of fatally shooting a man while driving in Maryland.

According to the Charles County Sheriff’s Department, Webber, of La Plata, Maryland, is alleged to have shot and killed a front-seat passenger during an argument on the evening of March 22, 2026.

#4 Authorities keep insisting that crime is under control, but we continue to see spectacular crimes being committed all over the nation. Earlier this week, two men in Philadelphia pulled off an armored truck heist that could have been pulled directly out of a CBS crime drama…

Two masked men armed with rifles carried out a brazen daylight robbery of a Brinks armored truck in the Tacony section of Northeast Philadelphia, escaping with what authorities say could be as much as $1.8 million in cash.

Philadelphia Police Department officials told ABC 6 that the robbery occurred around 9:45 a.m on April 21 on the 7200 block of Torresdale Avenue, as the Brinks truck was servicing a Budget Financial Center.

Brinks is a national security and cash logistics company that transports money for banks and retailers.

According to law enforcement officials, a blue Acura SUV pulled into the lot, with two suspects dressed in black jumping out, brandishing rifles and confronting the driver before seizing bags of cash.

#5 Why would someone purposely crash a vehicle into a police station? Either this is one of the dumbest criminals that I have ever read about, or something else is going on here…

A man deliberately drove his SUV into the Philadelphia Police Department’s 2nd District headquarters Tuesday afternoon, according to Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel, narrowly missing several people who were standing inside.

Police identified the suspect on Wednesday as 26-year-old Dieufort Joly of the 2100 block of Glendale Avenue.

Joly is charged with six counts of Aggravated Assault, six counts of Simple Assault, six counts of Recklessly Endangering Another Person, one count of Causing/Risking Catastrophe, one count of Institutional Vandalism, and one count of Possession of an Instrument of Crime.

#6 All over America, wild packs of young people are conducting “street takeovers” late at night. Unfortunately, this is even happening in some of our wealthiest neighborhoods…

Madness descended on an upscale Washington DC neighborhood again after a large mob of unhinged teens took over.

On Saturday night, a rowdy group of teenagers spilled into Navy Yard, a ritzy and trendy neighborhood in the US Capital, while people dined out and tried to enjoy their evening.

A massive crowd was seen running through the middle of a busy intersection, with some on foot and others riding bikes, in a video posted to X by investigator Elissa De Souza.

#7 Over the past several decades, millions of Muslims have immigrated to the United States, and their young people are also engaging in the “street takeover” trend…

Thugs waving Palestinian flags blocked traffic, took over the street, lit a fire, and performed car stunts in the family-oriented neighborhood of Middle Village, Queens, NY, last night.

This is Mamdani’s NYC.

Queens, NY has one of the highest concentrations of Muslims in New York City.

#8 I don’t have to tell you that sexual promiscuity is absolutely rampant in our society, because it is obvious to everyone. In Minneapolis, officials intend to legalize public sex in bathhouses because the gay Somali community has been clamoring for them to do it…

Minneapolis city leaders are barreling ahead with plans to legalize adult bathhouses and sex venues where consenting adults can engage in sexual activity, scrapping a 38-year ban enacted during the AIDS epidemic.

The push, driven by activists, comes as the gay Somali community in Minneapolis has been clamoring to legalize bathhouses. City leaders are considering the proposal that would allow patrons to engage in sexual intercourse in the venues, the New York Post reports.

#9 Children are considered to be a burden in our society now, and the U.S. birth rate fell to yet another record low last year…

The U.S. fertility rate fell slightly in 2025, to another record low, extending two decades of declines, according to federal data released on Thursday.

The fertility rate — the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age — dropped to 53.1, from 53.8 in 2024, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

The number of births dropped too, falling by 1 percent from the previous year, to 3,606,400.

#10 Elderly people are considered to be a burden too, and New York has just joined the growing list of states that have officially legalized assisted suicide…

This month, New York joined the growing number of states that have legalized doctor-assisted suicide. Supporters say giving patients the choice to end their lives with the help of a physician provides compassion for the dying. Opponents warn it creates larger ethical problems.

More than a dozen states and Washington, D.C., allow the practice of doctor-assisted suicide. New York became the latest when the governor legalized the Medical Aid in Dying bill this month—a move many critics say puts the country on an even more slippery slope when it comes to the issue of life and death.

Matt Sharp with Alliance Defending Freedom said, “Under this law, the floodgates are now open wide.”

#11 I keep hearing about a resurgence of religion in this country, but a Gallup survey has found that the percentage of Americans with no religion at all has reached a new record high…

Americans with no formal religious identity, popularly known as the “nones,” reached a record share of the population in 2025, according to Gallup data that shows fewer than 50% of adults also report that religion is “very important” in their lives.

The findings, based on interviews with more than 13,000 U.S. adults across Gallup’s monthly 2025 surveys, show that the share of Americans identifying as “nones” reached a new high of 24%, up from 21% to 22% over the previous four years. The share of Americans identifying as “nones” has grown steadily from 2% in 1948 to its current record.

#12 George Barna is one of my all-time favorite pollsters, and he recently conducted a survey that discovered that only 1 percent of Generation Z has a biblical worldview…

A recent survey of American adults found that despite a surge of interest in Christianity and church attendance in the months since Charlie Kirk’s assassination, the number of people who adhere to a biblical worldview remains critically low, including just 1% of Gen Z.

Conducted in January by Arizona Christian University’s Cultural Research Center under the guidance of researcher George Barna, the latest installment of the American Worldview Inventory asked 2,000 American adults a series of 53 questions to discern if they live consistently with a biblical worldview.

The young adults of today will be the leaders of tomorrow.

So what would our society look like with them in charge?

All throughout human history, great societies have risen and great societies have fallen.

The future of our own society will be written by us.

Unfortunately, at this moment our society is in a serious state of decline, and it would literally take a major miracle to turn things around at this stage.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 23:25

RFK Jr.'s New Autism Committee Issues First Proposals

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal committee remade by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on April 28 published proposals to revamp diagnosing and treating people with autism spectrum disorder.

Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 22, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The Interagency Autism Coordinating Committee said in one proposal that a component of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) should make clear that doctors should be prepared to recognize and treat new issues that occur in autistic people, such as seizures and difficulty sleeping.

The committee said that despite evidence showing new symptoms require treatment, “clinical care remains inconsistent and fragmented across settings.” The symptoms “can be overlooked, deferred, treated as secondary to behavior, or not systematically elicited at all,” it said.

Among the specific recommended changes is treating observations from caregivers of autistic people who are unable to speak, or speak well, as medically relevant information, rather than anecdotal context.

The Health Resources and Services Administration should develop training for doctors to identify and address gastrointestinal changes and sleep disturbances, among other problems, in autistic people, the committee said.

Another proposal suggested that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, another CMS component, clarify that when screening, diagnosing, and treating children with autism, doctors should seriously evaluate conditions such as developmental regression and allergic disease.

“When such triggers are present, further evaluation should be pursued or arranged as clinically indicated,” the proposal said, adding that the evaluation “should not permit these signals to be dismissed solely on the basis of an autism diagnosis.”

The committee said that there is much clinical evidence describing medical conditions that occur among autistic people, but “this evidence is not consistently integrated into clinical assessment, resulting in gaps in recognition, evaluation, and follow-through, especially when these conditions present atypically.”

It added later: “The result has been delayed identification, fragmented care, and preventable morbidity—reflecting a translational gap rather than an absence of evidence.”

The proposals were published as the committee met in Washington to discuss them. It was the first meeting since Kennedy removed existing committee members and selected new ones in January, including some who said vaccines cause autism.

The committee could end up changing the proposals during the meeting.

Dr. Sylvia Fogel, a psychiatry instructor at Harvard Medical School and the committee’s chair, said at the opening of the meeting that focusing on treating autistic individuals is imperative because many of the individuals suffer from undiagnosed psychiatric and pain-causing conditions.

“It is unacceptable,” said Fogel, who said her son has what she described as profound autism.

A third proposal would recommend that officials adopt the term profound autism as a reference for autistic people “with the highest and most persistent support needs.”

Fogel said the proposals aim to “address clear and correctable gaps in safety and policy.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 22:35

Watch: Small Earthquake Registered After IDF Blows Up Largest-Ever Hezbollah Tunnel

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Tuesday destroyed a major Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon on Tuesday evening, minutes after issuing an unusual warning that the blast would be heard across wide areas.

The tunnel is being described in regional media as the largest one ever discovered thus far in the war in southern Lebanon. Israeli N12 News reporter Amit Segal has written that "the force of the explosion caused a small earthquake to be felt along the northern border." The below footage has been confirmed in Israeli media:

The IDF destroyed a massive Hezbollah tunnel; the force of the explosion caused a small earthquake to be felt along the northern border. pic.twitter.com/symjrjk7bT

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) April 28, 2026

Very shortly before the huge blast, an alert went out to Israeli communities from Rosh Hanikra to the Golan Heights, forewarning of the large explosion - telling people not to panic.

The tunnel was located near the village of Qantara, which is a heavily Shiite Muslim town. The Israeli ground operation has seen Muslim and Christian villages alike razed to the ground in some instances.

Amid the fragile Iran and Lebanon ceasefires, sirens sounded in the Galilee area just minutes before the planned detonation, reportedly also based on potential inbound aerial threats.

Amazingly, the Times of Israel reports in the explosion aftermath that the "Geological Survey of Israel says the massive controlled explosion was picked up by the seismic warning system. However, no earthquake sirens were activated."

"The military told residents earlier it would ensure that the controlled blast would not set off the earthquake sirens, which has happened in the past," the report adds.

Blast images circulating widely on X

The blast was filmed and photographed even from miles away, where smoke was seen reaching many stories into the air. 

Lebanon has been denouncing such controlled demolition activity, given that in some cases entire villages and abandoned towns have been destroyed in similar fashion.

Israel has sought to utterly raze any village it deems a Hezbollah weapons depot or safe area. But this has also included targeting Christian towns in the south of Lebanon, as the below image shows.

The Christian village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon, before and after it was destroyed by the Israeli army. pic.twitter.com/Rg77dlbuCJ

— Ihab Hassan (@IhabHassane) April 26, 2026

Western media has tended to present these Mideast conflicts involving Israel as coming down to "Jewish vs. Muslim" wars - but the Israeli army doesn't discriminate in terms of also attacking Lebanese and Palestinian Christian enclaves. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 22:10

California Dreamin': GOP's Chance To Flip The Golden State

Authored by Mike Robertson via American Thinker,

Ahead of the gubernatorial election this fall, pundits are buzzing with something Californians haven’t heard in years: a real chance to flip the Golden State red - at least with a new governor in Sacramento. Thanks to its top-two primary system, in which the top two finishers advance to November regardless of party, this is more than possible.

This election cycle matters more than most for the Republican Party, and for the people of California. The Golden State has suffered under one-party Democrat rule for more than fifteen years, and the results are shocking. Despite some recent dips in violent crime, years of soft-on-crime policies have left neighborhoods scarred by retail theft waves, open drug markets, and a homelessness crisis that defies solution. 

Businesses keep fleeing - California led the nation in net out-migration again in 2025, with roughly 216,000 residents packing up and leaving, many taking jobs and tax revenue with them. Housing remains wildly unaffordable, earning the state an F grade from Realtor.com for sky-high prices relative to incomes and regulatory barriers to new construction.

Paychecks don’t stretch, education rankings lag (California sits around 24th–37th nationally, depending on the metric), and the state’s aggressive green-energy mandates have driven up electricity and gas costs while water infrastructure struggles to keep pace.

Then came the January 2025 Southern California wildfires. Fire hydrants ran dry, water pressure failed in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere, and critics slammed the response for poor preparation and coordination - exactly the kind of governance failure that leaves residents wondering who’s in charge. 

All of this flows from Blue authorities: sanctuary-state policies that shield illegal immigrants at the expense of public safety, endless fights with the Trump administration, and a relentless push for DEI and woke ideology over practical reforms. Californians have paid the price.

But this November, the tide may finally turn. There is a genuine opportunity to deliver what Californians truly deserve - crisis resolution, safer streets, affordable living, and an economy that works again.

Two Republicans, both with strong Trump backing, are posting surprisingly strong numbers in recent polls. Former Fox News host and Trump-endorsed Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have led or tied for the top spots in multiple surveys, while a crowded Democrat field - Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, and others - splits the vote and often trails.

Voters are clearly fed up with reckless Blue policies that prioritize ideology over results.

The GOP hopefuls’ platforms speak directly to the pain points. Hilton’s “Califordable” agenda promises no state income tax on earnings under $100,000, $3-a-gallon gas, electricity bills cut in half by slashing regulations, aggressive single-family home construction to restore the California Dream, and real education reform - ensuring kids can actually read by third grade. He also vows to crack down on government waste and fraud while enforcing laws against street encampments. Bianco emphasizes public safety first - fully resourcing law enforcement, ending sanctuary policies, cutting taxes and over-regulation, and unleashing California’s energy resources to drive down costs and create jobs.

These are concrete plans, not slogans - targeted fixes for the very problems Democrats have ignored or worsened.

Even amid the political trench warfare between Red and Blue, we must never forget one simple truth: the people living in California are no less American than those in Texas or Florida. Every legal citizen, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, shares the same unalienable rights that our republic exists to protect. It must be our common goal to strengthen this country and improve lives for all Americans - no matter the ZIP code.

That is precisely the mistake the Left keeps making. They treat the nation as two separate countries, portray their political opponents as enemies rather than fellow citizens, and stoke division that too often edges toward violence. This is basically one of the reasons Republican candidates lead the polls now.

Californians deserve better. This November, they just might get it. The dream of a Golden State that works again is alive - if Republicans seize the moment.

Mike Robertson is a contributor to American Thinker. Follow him on X at @Mike_for_MAGA and Reddit.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 21:45

Ft. Knox Full Of Impure Gold Unfit For International Transactions

Authored by Jp Cortez via The Mises Institute,

The bulk of the US gold reserves held in Fort Knox are made up of impure “non-standard” bars that don’t qualify for use in international settlements.

In practice, this means that most of America’s massive gold stockpile is illiquid and wouldn’t be readily accepted on the international market should the need arise:

“It’s a decrepit relic just like our monetary policy is. With respect to America’s gold stockpile, we hold ourselves to a lower standard than the rest of the world,” Money Metals CEO Stefan Gleason said.

The French central bank recently sold 129 tonnes of similar non-standard gold that was stored in New York and replaced it with higher-quality bars that will remain in France.

Notwithstanding the lack of any credible physical audits for decades, US gold reserves are reported to be 8,133.5 metric tons. That’s roughly 261.5 million troy ounces. About half of that (147.3 million ounces according to the US Mint) is stored at Fort Knox. The rest is spread out between the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository, and the Federal Reserve vault in New York.

America’s gold is valued at $42.22 per ounce by statute. The price does not fluctuate with market movements.

According to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), gold bars must contain 350 to 430 fine troy ounces and have a minimum fineness of 995.0 parts per thousand to be acceptable for international settlements. In fact, the “good delivery” standards across the globe have been transitioning to 0.9999 purity.

Based on documents released during a 2011 House Committee on Financial Services Hearing, however, we find only around 17 percent of the gold bars held by the US government in Fort Knox meet any modern-day purity standards.

Here’s a breakdown of the purity of the gold bars held in Fort Knox:

• Fineness between 899 and 901 – 64 percent

• Fineness between 901.1 and 915.4 – 2 percent

• Fineness between 915.5 and .917 – 17 percent

• Fineness of 0.995 or higher – 17 percent

• The average purity of US gold reserves is 916.7

Problematic Audits, Chain-of-Custody Discrepancies, Missing Records

Keep in mind, we’re operating on guesswork here because the US government’s gold holdings have not been audited since at least the 1970s.

In 1974, the government put together a publicity stunt in the name of an audit. The US Treasury opened just one of its 15 Fort Knox vault compartments to politicians and reporters to view the gold and confirm its existence.

That’s been called an audit. However, none of the bars that were passed around were ever matched to a serial number, assayed or tested for purity, or even verified as part of the United States’ holdings. As Sound Money Defense League Director Matthew Cortez pointed out, “It seems the made-for-TV spectacle in 1974 was more of a pep rally than any credible proof of what the amount of US gold purported to be in those vaults.”

Following the 1974 publicity stunt, the US Treasury says it conducted a multi-year process of opening and inventorying vault compartments and affixing new tamper-evident seals to the doors of each compartment upon completion. However, these so-called audits failed to meet basic transparency or accounting standards.

Some reports have since gone missing, and there is no record of comprehensive assaying, weighing, or transactional history available to the public.

Furthermore, there is evidence that seals on vault compartments have been broken over the years, bars have been moved for unknown reasons, and seals have been re-affixed without fresh auditing. Subsequent annual reviews of the schedules of compartment seals serve only to whitewash the prior discrepancies.

In sum, the US Treasury’s management of US gold reserves is replete with audit “no-nos” that would never pass muster at a responsibly run private depository.

An “audit the gold” bill introduced by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) last year would not only require a comprehensive audit of US gold reserves, including, importantly, an accounting of any transactions involving said gold. It would also require the Treasury to refine all non-standard bars so that they meet modern requirements for international settlements—a process that could take several years.

Why So Much Non-Standard Gold?

How did the US end up holding so many impaired gold bars that are illiquid on global markets?

It is the legacy of US policy that abandoned the gold standard, leaving us with the fiat system we live with today.

Needing to expand the money supply to support his spending plans, President Franklin D. Roosevelt decided to expropriate the public’s gold and add it to the national reserves. On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102, effectively making private gold ownership illegal.

FDR claimed the measure was to prevent “hoarding.” However, by creating an expansive definition of “hoarding,” the EO was designed to take virtually all gold coins and bars out of private hands and transfer them to the government.

Many people refer to Roosevelt’s scheme as “gold confiscation,” but that overstates what actually happened. The government didn’t go door-to-door taking people’s gold. However, the Federal Reserve still collected plenty of gold, especially gold held by institutions.

But many Americans also turned in their gold voluntarily as an act of obedience. Some likely did so because they trusted the government, others out of a sense of patriotism, and some probably turned their gold in out of fear.

Everyone was paid roughly $20 per ounce for their gold. But six months later, FDR formally devalued the dollar by some 40 percent when he declared gold worth $35 per ounce.

Much of the confiscated gold was in the form of coins that were generally 90 percent pure. At the time, private banks, along with the Federal Reserve, held a large number of coins. That was because Federal Reserve notes were redeemable for gold.

However, with private ownership of gold effectively banned, people would no longer be able to trade paper for metals, and there was no need to hold on to a bunch of coins. The government melted the coins down and formed them into bars, which now sit in Fort Knox vaults (as far as we know).

In a 1994 article published by The Journal of Economic Education, William C. Wood called the Fort Knox depository “an artifact of the gold standard days.”

The gold currently in Fort Knox came from the melting of Depression-era gold coins, from lend-lease arrangements in War II, and from government operations under the gold standard.

Wood specifically noted, “The gold resulting from melting of coinage has considerably lower quality than the ‘fine’ or ‘good delivery’ gold commonly used in international trade. The majority of the gold in Fort Knox is the lower-quality coin gold.”

In some ways, it makes sense that US gold reserves are impure and useless on the international market. It reflects the nature of the fiat system that replaced it.

Mises Institute Editor in Chief Ryan McMaken called the US gold reserves “a legacy of theft and lies,” pointing out that the gold reserve was never intended to be a “static, untouchable hoard of the US government.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 20:55

DOJ Sues Cloudera For Deliberately Excluding American Workers From High-Paying Tech Jobs

The Justice Department on Tuesday sued Cloudera Inc., accusing the enterprise data and artificial intelligence company of deliberately engineering a hiring process that excluded American workers from at least seven lucrative technology positions while the firm pursued permanent residency sponsorship for foreign workers on temporary visas.

In a 14-page complaint filed with the Office of the Chief Administrative Hearing Officer, the department’s Civil Rights Division alleges that Cloudera, from March 31, 2024, through at least January 28, 2025, instructed job candidates to submit applications to a dedicated email address, amerijobpostings@cloudera.com, that rejected all external messages with an automated bounce-back error. The company did not advertise the roles on its public careers website or accept applications through its standard portal, as it did for non-sponsorship positions.

Cloudera then attested to the Department of Labor that it could not locate any qualified U.S. workers for the roles, which paid between approximately $180,000 and $294,000 annually, according to the filing. The positions included a Product Manager role in Santa Clara, California, with a listed salary range of $170,186 to $190,000.

The case marks one of the most detailed enforcement actions under the Justice Department’s Protecting U.S. Workers Initiative, which was relaunched last year and has already produced 10 settlements targeting employers accused of discriminating against American workers in favor of temporary visa holders.

“Employers cannot use the PERM sponsorship process as a backdoor for discriminating against U.S. workers,” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon of the Civil Rights Division said in a statement. “The Division will not hesitate to sue companies who intentionally deter U.S. workers from applying to American jobs.”

On X, she wrote that the department had sued Cloudera “for discriminating against U.S. workers in favor of foreign visa holders for high-paying tech jobs” and warning employers that they are “on notice.”

We just sued Cloudera for discriminating against U.S. workers in favor of foreign visa holders for high-paying tech jobs. This is a violation of the Immigration & Nationality Act, & @CivilRights will not hesitate to sue employers for discriminating against U.S. workers! You are…

- AAGHarmeetDhillon (@AAGDhillon) April 28, 2026

A Technical Barrier With Regulatory Consequences

The complaint describes a recruitment system designed to satisfy the letter of permanent labor certification (PERM) rules while subverting their purpose. Under PERM, employers seeking to sponsor foreign workers for green cards must first demonstrate that no minimally qualified, willing, and available U.S. worker exists for the position through good-faith recruitment that mirrors normal hiring practices.

Cloudera posted the seven PERM-related jobs on a state job board, in newspapers, and in professional publications. But it deviated sharply from its standard process by refusing to list the positions on cloudera.com/careers and directing all applicants to the nonfunctional email address.

External candidates received a Google Groups error message stating that the group “may not exist, or you may not have permission to post messages to the group.” For at least nine months, Cloudera recorded no external applications through the address and made no effort to investigate or fix the issue. The company nevertheless certified in its PERM applications - under penalty of perjury - that it had conducted bona fide recruitment and found no qualified U.S. worker. No U.S. workers were hired for any of the seven positions during the relevant period.

One Worker’s Complaint Triggers Investigation

The investigation began after a single U.S. worker - the charging party, whose name is redacted - attempted to apply and received the bounce-back message. On January 10, 2025, the Immigrant and Employee Rights Section opened a charge-based investigation. Two months later, it launched an independent probe and concluded there was reasonable cause to believe Cloudera had engaged in a pattern or practice of citizenship-status discrimination, violating Section 1324b of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

The complaint brings three counts: deterring U.S. workers from applying, failing to consider applications that were submitted, and failing to hire qualified U.S. workers for positions the company had reserved for temporary visa holders.

Cloudera’s Dual Hiring Tracks

For regular, non-PERM vacancies during the same period, Cloudera advertised positions on its external website and accepted applications through its standard careers portal. Only the PERM-track roles - those intended to be filled through sponsorship of workers already on temporary visas such as H-1B - were funneled through the defective email channel. The filing describes this as a “separate recruitment and hiring process” that treated U.S. workers less favorably based on citizenship status.

Because Cloudera employed more than three workers during the relevant period, they're subject to the anti-discrimination provisions of the INA.

If the allegations are proven, Cloudera could face civil penalties for each individual discriminated against, back pay and interest for affected workers, and injunctive relief requiring changes to its recruitment practices. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 20:30

DHS To Vet Immigrants For 'Extremist Views'

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Homeland ​Security (DHS) said on April 27 that past statements expressing what it labeled extremist views from immigrants applying ‌for green cards and naturalization would warrant closer scrutiny.

The DHS statement was in response to a New York Times report over the weekend that, citing internal DHS training materials, said that under new guidance introduced by the Trump administration, immigrants can now be denied a green card for expressing political opinions.

A spokesman for U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), which falls under the purview of DHS, said certain ⁠behaviors and statements “may raise serious concerns for USCIS personnel reviewing an applicant’s file, ​including espousing terrorist ideologies, expressing hatred for American values, advocating for the violent overthrow of the United States ​government, or providing material support to terrorist organizations,” adding that such actions “warrant closer scrutiny.”

The New York Times report claimed that the Trump administration includes criticizing the state of Israel as a potentially disqualifying factor when applying for a green card or naturalization.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said that the administration’s policies had “nothing to do with free speech” and were meant to protect “American institutions, the safety of citizens, national security and the freedoms of the United States,” the paper reported.

The Epoch Times has contacted the White House and DHS for further comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The New York Times report prompted criticism from lawmakers and rights groups, who have raised concerns regarding free speech and due process.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) labeled the alleged instructions to immigration officers as “outrageous” in an April 27 post on X.

“Trump plans to deny legal residency in the US based on whether he agrees with your speech,” Hollen wrote.

“Since when did it become ‘anti-American’ to criticize the actions of a foreign government? Who is he fighting for?”

Nonprofit civil liberties group Defending Rights & Dissent said the move was an “incredibly disturbing attack on free speech, with the government deciding who can enter the country based purely on their expression of political views,” in an April 27 post on X.

The Trump administration has adopted a harsher line on Palestinian advocacy movements it has deemed anti-Semitic by attempting to deport foreign protesters and threatening to freeze funding for universities where protests were held, since Trump retook the White House in 2024.

Last year, the Trump administration said it would vet immigration applications for “anti-Americanism” and anti-Semitism.

DHS stated on April 9, 2025, that USCIS would consider online expressions of anti-Semitic sentiment—particularly those endorsing violence, or terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—as grounds for denying immigration benefit requests.

The new policy, which went into effect immediately, also applies to physical harassment of Jewish individuals and will affect applicants for lawful permanent residency, foreign students, and individuals affiliated with educational institutions linked to anti-Semitic activity.

The policy directs USCIS officers to treat expressions of support for anti-Semitic violence or extremist ideologies as negative discretionary factors when evaluating applications.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 20:05

The US Grid Wasn't Built For This

Authored by Tejasri Gururaj via Interesting Engineering,

Global data center power demand is projected to hit 84 GW by 2027—a 50 percent jump from 2023 levels—with AI workloads accounting for 27 percent of that total, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

The grid is strained by increasing demand from electricity-hungry data centers and electric vehicles.Getty Images

The grid cannot keep up with AI. For decades, electricity demand grew slowly and predictably, giving utilities comfortable margins to plan capacity years in advance. That model broke almost overnight. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, utilities’ five-year summer peak demand forecasts jumped from 38 GW to 128 GW, a more than threefold increase in a single planning cycle.

Unlike traditional server loads, which are relatively flat and predictable, AI inference and training jobs generate sharp, near-instantaneous power spikes. Large-scale GPU clusters can produce fluctuations of hundreds of megawatts within seconds. That’s a load behavior utilities have no historical model for.

Energy companies are no longer treating hyperscale data centers as large customers to be served from the grid, but rather as anchor infrastructure to be co-built with.

What follows is a look at what that shift actually demands at the systems level — why natural gas is currently the only tool that can fill the gap at the required speed and scale, what that means for emissions commitments already being made today, and what the longer path to balancing this with storage, transmission, and cleaner alternatives realistically looks like.

Why natural gas is filling the gap today

The US currently generates around 40 percent of its electricity from natural gas, with coal and renewables making up most of the rest. However, neither can meet the requirements of AI data centers, which require firm, uninterrupted, gigawatt-scale power available around the clock. The present US grid is already under strain before data centers even enter the equation.

U.S. power grid voltage levels and customer classes. Credit: United States Department of Energy/Wikimedia Commons.

Renewables hit a hard wall here. Interconnection requests for new solar and wind projects face median wait times of over four years. In contrast, natural gas is cheap, abundant, and already flows through an extensive pipeline network across the country. And unlike new solar or wind projects, gas plants can be up and running in three to five years.

Even so, three to five years is not immediate. Demand is here now, and the gap between what the grid can deliver today and what data centers need is already being felt. Energy companies are trying to figure out how to keep up with this demand in different ways.

Entergy is spending $3.2 billion to build three natural gas plants totalling 2.3 GW specifically to power Meta’s new Louisiana data center, which requires 2 GW for computation alone. These plants carry a typical operational lifetime of around 30 years.

Others are hedging their bets that the infrastructure will attract the tenant. NextEra Energy, the US’s largest renewable developer, is partnering with ExxonMobil to build a 1.2 GW gas plant in the Southeast. CEO John Ketchum summed up the industry’s new posture: the AI sector is shifting toward “BYOG” — build your own generation.

Rethinking the engineering playbook

Power grids are engineered for predictability. Seasonal peaks, industrial cycles, and population growth are modeled to plan generation capacity for the future. Fitting AI into this picture requires much more than just scaling.

Training a large language model means thousands of GPUs running simultaneously, sustaining enormous power draws for days or weeks, then dropping off sharply. These spikes are unpredictable and can be extreme. Dispatch curves determine which plants run when, whereas reserve scheduling ensures backup capacity is always available. AI workloads stress both in ways utilities have no historical model for. The forecasting crisis this has created is visible in the numbers, with a threefold increase in peak demand between 2023 and 2024. 

Developers routinely file speculative interconnection requests for projects that never get built, flooding queues with phantom demand. ERCOT, Texas’s grid operator, developed an entirely new Adjusted Large Load Forecast methodology to account for exactly this — the gap between projected data center load and what actually materializes.

At the plant level, this is forcing a redesign of how generation assets are dispatched. When an AI model responds to a user query, it triggers a sudden, large power surge known as an inference spike. Gas peakers — plants designed for short, high-output bursts — are now being co-located with data center campuses specifically to absorb these inference spikes that baseload plants can’t respond to fast enough.

The DOE’s National Transmission Needs Study identified transmission congestion as already acute across multiple regions before this wave of demand arrived.

Transmission and cost crunch

The physical grid is buckling under the same pressure. Transmission investment in many regions of the US declined steadily after 2015, leaving a system already running close to its limits. Now it’s being asked to absorb demand at a scale it was never designed for.

In Texas, CenterPoint Energy reported a 700% increase in large load interconnection requests between late 2023 and late 2024. In Virginia, another 50 GW of data center projects sit active in the queue. The costs reflect the strain.

Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) capture waste heat to generate additional electricity, making them efficient enough for round-the-clock demand. Installed costs for new CCGTs have nearly doubled to around $2,000/kW compared to plants built just a few years ago.

The market data tells the same story. The capacity market clearing price, which is the rate utilities pay to secure guaranteed power reserves for peak demand, has also increased. In PJM, the grid operator covering much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, capacity market clearing prices for the 2026-27 delivery year jumped to $329/MW — more than ten times the $28.92/MW price from two years prior.  

A map of the U.S. high-voltage transmission grid. Credit: Wikideas1/Wikimedia Commons. The long game : Emission costs

The gas plants being built today aren’t just a bridge to the AI boom; they’re a commitment. With an average operational lifetime of 30 years, they will still be running well past every major net-zero target on the books.

A natural gas plant emits around 490g of CO2 per kilowatt-hour over its lifetime. Scale that across the gigawatts of new capacity being greenlit today, and the emissions math becomes difficult to ignore.

Across the southern US, utilities are planning around 20 GW of new gas capacity over the next 15 years, with data centers accounting for 65 to 85% of projected load growth in Virginia, South Carolina, and Georgia alone. The methane problem compounds this.

Natural gas infrastructure (drilling, pipelines, compression) leaks methane continuously, both accidentally and through intentional venting. Methane traps around 80 times as much heat as CO2 over a 20-year horizon, making the emissions from a buildout of this scale difficult to quantify but impossible to ignore.

It’s the policy fault line that’s now opening up between energy companies, hyperscalers with net-zero commitments, and regulators who are only beginning to grapple with what AI’s energy appetite actually means for decarbonization timelines.

Policies and incentives

Several structural mechanisms are being put in place to eventually shift the balance, though none of them work fast enough to solve the immediate problem.

It’s the policy fault line that’s now opening up between energy companies, hyperscalers with net-zero commitments, and regulators who are only beginning to grapple with what AI’s energy appetite actually means for decarbonization timelines.

Policies and incentives

Several structural mechanisms are being put in place to eventually shift the balance, though none of them work fast enough to solve the immediate problem.

On the storage side, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 offers a 30% tax credit for standalone energy storage systems and zero-emission generation facilities placed in service after 2024. The credit applies not just to generation technologies like solar but also to storage infrastructure itself. This gives data center operators and utilities a financial reason to invest in battery systems needed to make renewables work around the clock.

On the generation side, nuclear is emerging as a leading zero-carbon option for AI data centers, given its ability to deliver firm, always-on power. Google is already moving in this direction, striking a deal with NextEra to restart the 615 MW Duane Arnold nuclear facility for 24/7 carbon-free power.

Transmission remains the hardest problem. A study by the Department of Energy identified significant transmission capacity gaps across nearly every US region — gaps that predate the AI demand surge and will take years of coordinated investment and permitting reform to close.

The path forward

AI’s power demands are arriving faster than the infrastructure built to serve them. The gas plants, the transmission upgrades, the storage credits, the nuclear restarts, none of it is moving at the speed the technology is. 

At some point, that gap has to close. The question is whether that gap closes through deliberate investment and policy coordination, or through something more painful. Power shortages, delayed data centers, and electricity bills that reflect the true cost of building a grid that wasn’t designed for this moment. Engineers and policymakers are working on the former. The clock is running on the latter.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 19:15