Tailing 7Y Auction Sees Lukewarm Foreign Demand, Jump In Direct Buyers

The week's final coupon auction per the truncated pre-FOMC schedule has come and gone, and like yesterday's 2Y and 5Y, was also mediocre at best.

The sale of $44BN in 7Y paper stopped at a high yield of 4.175%, down from 4.255% in March; and like the week's previous auctions, the 7Y also tailed the 4.170% When Issued by 0.5bps, which makes it 4 auctions that have not stopped through in a row.

The bid to cover was better, rising to 2.513 from 2.432; this was the highest bid to cover since last June, and obviously well above the 2.46 six auction average.

The internals, on the other hand, were softer, with Indirects awarded 58.35%, down from 62.35% and below the 61.28% recent average. And with Directs taking a surprisingly high 30.0%, up from 25.0% and the highest since December, Dealers were left with 11.6%, right on top of the recent average.

Overall, this was another medicore auction which in light of the recent move higher in rates could have been worse. 

As with the week's previous auctions there was no notable reaction to today's sale with markets far more focused on the price of oil and developments in Iran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 13:20

Appeals Court Temporarily Allows Pentagon To Require Escorts For Reporters

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A U.S. appeals court on April 27 temporarily allowed the Department of War to require reporters entering Pentagon grounds to be escorted while the government appeals a lower court ruling.

The Pentagon is seen from a flight taking off from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on Nov. 29, 2022. Alex Wong/Getty Images/TNS

In a 2–1 decision, a three-judge panel from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit stayed an April 9 order issued by U.S. District Judge Paul Friedman, which found the department’s revised press access policy violated his previous order by mandating escorts for reporters entering the Pentagon.

The panel said the department has shown that it is likely to succeed on the merits of its case. According to the ruling, the department argued that allowing journalists to enter the Pentagon unescorted could increase the risk of sensitive information being disseminated.

“The Department has thus supported its claim that this aspect of its policy furthers important national security interests,” the ruling stated.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell welcomed the appeals court’s decision and emphasized that journalists continue to hold valid press credentials and access to Pentagon briefings, press conferences, and interviews.

“Despite what many in the media have told you, the Department’s policy has never been about limiting journalism—it is about safeguarding classified information that protects American lives,” Parnell said on X.

The New York Times challenged the Pentagon’s rules in December 2025, arguing that its press access policy violated the U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment by restricting journalists’ ability to “ask questions of government employees and gather information to report stories that take the public beyond official pronouncements.” Friedman subsequently blocked the rules and ordered the Pentagon to reinstate the credentials of New York Times reporters.

This story is developing and will be updated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 13:00

Vegas Casino Stocks Hit A Cold Streak As Visitor Growth Muted

Las Vegas casino stocks have been largely mixed year to date on New York exchanges, as soaring costs for alcohol, parking, food, hotel rooms, bottled water, and other basic items have deterred cash-strapped visitors from the Strip.

Visitor volumes have been under pressure for more than a year, with Canadian travel down sharply in 2025. Major operators such as MGM and Caesars have reported revenue declines in Sin City, according to Bloomberg.

The latest data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority show that visitor volumes increased marginally by 2.1% in February, but this was from a depressed level, as foot traffic remains below late-2024 levels.

Foot-traffic data from Placer.ai indicate that quarterly visits across the top casino operators remain soft, with Las Vegas-exclusive Red Rock Resorts being the only one showing growth.

Vegas foot traffic is expected to remain muted this year: "I wouldn't expect a major upswing," Bloomberg Intelligence gaming and lodging senior analyst Brian Egger said.

Citizens analyst Jordan Bender noted that Vegas is more like a "vacation," with visitors going there "not necessarily to gamble more."

If "you just want a fun weekend for two days, it's not a bad place to go," Suter told clients.

We have detailed for years how unaffordable Vegas has become. Even MGM CEO William Hornbuckle acknowledged this reality on an October earnings call: "Whether it's the infamous bottle of water or Starbucks coffee at Excalibur that costs $12, shame on us."

Vegas must become affordable again - or risk yet another year of muted traffic, which would impact the local economy because the leisure and hospitality industry made up about a quarter of all jobs in the metro area.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 12:40

More Than 1,000 TSA Officers Have Quit Amid Shutdown

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Monday that more than 1,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers have left the agency since the partial shutdown began on Feb. 14.

An employee with the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checks the documents of a traveler at Reagan National Airport in Washington, Jan. 6, 2019. Joshua Roberts/Reuters

Amid the record-breaking lapse in funding, DHS said that with summer months approaching and the FIFA World Cup kicking off in June, impacts to travelers could be significant.

The department announced the drastic drop in staffing in a post on X, blaming Democrats in Congress for the prolonged shutdown.

“This loss has SIGNIFICANTLY decreased TSA’s ability to meet passenger demand and left critical gaps in staffing, as each new recruit requires 4-6 MONTHS of training,” DHS wrote.

Fliers at airports across the United States experienced hours-long security lines earlier in the spending lapse.

To ease travel pains, President Donald Trump on March 23 deployed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to 14 U.S. airports.

“[The American public is] going through a big struggle right now, and we just put ICE in charge, and they’re helping TSA—the agents—and they’re working together so far very well,” Trump said at the time.

If longer wait times persisted, Trump pitched the idea of also deploying the National Guard.

Lauren Bis, acting assistant secretary for public affairs at DHS, told The Epoch Times that from the start of the shutdown through March 24, 450 TSA agents had quit. Thousands more were calling out sick and could not afford gas, childcare, food, or rent, she added.

“As Democrats continue to put the safety, reliability, and efficiency of our air travel system at risk, [President] Donald Trump is taking decisive action—deploying hundreds of ICE officers, already funded by Congress, to the airports under the greatest strain,” Bis said.

TSA acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told Congress on March 25 that airports might be forced to close if the partial shutdown continued.

“At this point, we have to look at all options on the table. We don’t have the luxury of picking and choosing how we maintain our operations,” McNeill told lawmakers.

“And that does require us to, at some point, make very difficult choices as to which airports we might try to keep open and which ones we might have to shut down as our callout rates increase.”

Only days after McNeil testified on Capitol Hill, Trump signed a presidential memorandum to pay TSA agents with DHS emergency funds.

More than 50,000 TSA employees had been working without pay for weeks.

Wait times at airports eased as TSA agents began receiving paychecks and backpay. Security lines that were taking multiple hours to pass through were down to 10 minutes or less.

But there’s still no long-term plan from Congress to fully fund DHS.

Republicans and Democrats are blaming each other for the spending standstill. An array of funding proposals have come from both sides, but none have successfully advanced.

GOP lawmakers are criticizing their counterparts for not passing their proposals, as Democrats demand a guaranteed overhaul of immigration operations in exchange for a funding agreement.

On March 27, the House passed a stopgap plan to fund DHS for 60 days. The bill was sent to the Senate, which had already left for a two-week recess.

Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin warned on April 21 that DHS will soon run out of its emergency funds to pay TSA if Congress cannot reach a deal. The money would run dry by the first week in May, he said in a “Fox and Friends” interview.

“My payroll at DHS is just over $1.6 billion every two weeks,” Mullin said. “There is no more emergency fund, so the president can’t do another executive order for us to use money, because there’s no more money there.”

The Senate, using the budget reconciliation process, advanced on April 23 a $70 billion funding plan for ICE and Customs and Border Protection through 2029. The process allows passage by a simple majority, bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote threshold.

If brought up by the House, the resolution would allow congressional committees to write detailed legislation on allocation of the funds, which would then require Trump’s signature to take effect.

Trump praised the Senate’s effort and urged Republicans to unify to achieve full funding for DHS.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 12:20

Top Fauci Advisor David Morens Charged In COVID Records Cover-Up: DOJ

With Pam Bondi out (related?), the U.S. Department of Justice announced today that it has indicted Dr. David M. Morens, a longtime senior advisor to former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci. The 78-year-old Morens faces charges including conspiracy against the United States, destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in federal investigations, concealment, removal, or mutilation of records, and aiding and abetting.

Dr. David Morens. Look at that criminal brow. 

According to the indictment, Morens allegedly used his personal Gmail account to evade Freedom of Information Act requests and worked with others to conceal communications related to COVID-19 research grants during the pandemic.

Fauci advisor David Morens admits in an email that he "learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after i am foia'd but before the search starts" https://t.co/sn6hvwDF7R pic.twitter.com/1MroXRWNQO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 28, 2026

Morens served as Senior Scientific Advisor in NIAID’s Office of the Director from 2006 through 2022 - advising senior leadership, including Fauci, on policy matters, infectious disease issues, and aspects of COVID-19 origins research. He also gathered information from grantees and the scientific community and helped prepare briefings for Fauci to use with the White House, Congress, and the public.

The Congressional Investigation

The indictment follows years of scrutiny by Congress. In June 2023, the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic began obtaining emails showing that Morens had been using his personal Gmail account for official government business specifically to avoid FOIA disclosures. Over the following months the subcommittee issued document requests and subpoenas, conducted transcribed interviews with Morens in December 2023 and January 2024, and ultimately obtained tens of thousands of additional pages from his personal email account in late April 2024.

As Paul Thacker of the DisInformation Chronicle noted in 2024, the subcommittee released a detailed staff memo and more than 150 pages of emails on May 22, 2024, documenting what it described as serious questions about potential wrongdoing and illegal activity by Morens. The emails included discussions of deleting records and routing sensitive communications through personal accounts.

Sen. Ron Johnson had raised similar concerns even earlier. In November 2023 he wrote to HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and Inspector General Christi Grimm, stating that Morens’ actions may have directly obstructed congressional oversight efforts related to NIAID activities during the pandemic.

More than two years ago, my PSI staff discovered and made public emails in which Dr. David Morens bragged to colleagues about his efforts to avoid transparency by destroying federal records and using his personal email to communicate on “sensitive issues.”

Today, @OIGatHHS…

— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) April 28, 2026

Key Emails

Two emails in particular have drawn significant attention. In a February 24, 2021 message to Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance and Gerald Keusch, Morens wrote that he had learned from an NIH FOIA official “how to make emails disappear after I am FOIA’d but before the search starts, so I think we are all safe. Plus, I deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to Gmail."

In an April 21, 2021 email to Daszak, Morens added: “PS, I forgot to say there is no worry about FOIAs. I can either send stuff to Tony on his private gmail, or hand it to him at work or at his house. He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble." (“Tony" refers to Anthony Fauci.)

These messages, along with others detailing coordination with EcoHealth Alliance after its NIH grant was terminated, formed a central part of the congressional record.

'Tie Your Shoe'

On May 22, 2024, Morens appeared for a public hearing before the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. He faced questions from both Republican and Democratic members about the emails, his relationship with Daszak, and his role in efforts to restore EcoHealth’s terminated grant and shape public messaging around COVID-19 origins.

During the hearing, Morens was confronted with evidence that he:

• Edited compliance letters and press releases for EcoHealth Alliance
• Wrote to the EcoHealth board on Daszak’s behalf when the latter feared being fired
• Used personal email to route information to Fauci while attempting to avoid FOIA
• Discussed methods for deleting or hiding emails after FOIA requests had been filed

As Paul Thacker writes: 

Reading back to Morens passages from his own emails and prior congressional testimony, Chairman Brad Wenstrup forced Morens to confirm that he had conspired with EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak to restore Daszak’s NIH grant. Morens admitted that he edited a compliance letter Daszak sent to the NIH, edited an EcoHealth Alliance press release after NIH terminated Daszak’s grant, and “put in a word” to the EcoHealth Alliance board when Daszak was worried about being fired.

Ranking Member Raul Ruiz berated Morens at several points, saying his actions were a “stain on the legacy” of the NIH and his colleagues. After Wenstrup banged down his gavel to end the hearing, Morens remained seated and was approached by his lawyer, white collar crime attorney Timothy Belevetz.

Leaning into his client’s ear, Belevetz whispered, “Before you get up, tie your shoe.”

Today’s DOJ Indictment

The indictment alleges that after NIH terminated EcoHealth Alliance’s grant Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence — which included a subaward to the Wuhan Institute of Virology — Morens and unnamed co-conspirators conspired to help restore the grant and counter the lab-leak narrative. The charges further claim that Morens used his personal Gmail account to hide these communications from public view and that he received illegal gratuities, including wine delivered to his home, in connection with official acts favorable to EcoHealth.

Maximum penalties if convicted:

• Conspiracy against the United States: up to 5 years in prison
• Destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in federal investigations: up to 20 years per count
• Concealment, removal, or mutilation of records: up to 3 years per count

An indictment is not a finding of guilt. All defendants are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.

Timeline of Key Events

• 2020–2021: Key emails written regarding FOIA avoidance, back-channel communications, and coordination with EcoHealth Alliance
• June 2023: House Select Subcommittee begins obtaining Morens’ personal emails
• October 2023: Morens subpoenaed for documents
• November 2023: Sen. Ron Johnson raises concerns with HHS leadership about potential obstruction of oversight
• December 2023 and January 2024: Morens gives transcribed interviews to the subcommittee
• April 2024: Additional subpoena issued; Morens produces roughly 30,000 pages of emails
• May 22, 2024: Public hearing held and staff memo plus 155 pages of emails released
• June 3, 2024: Dr. Anthony Fauci testifies before the subcommittee
• April 28, 2026: Department of Justice indicts David Morens

Broader Context: The Offshoring of Risky U.S. Research

In 2014, the Obama administration imposed a pause on federal funding for certain gain-of-function research on pathogens such as influenza, SARS, and MERS viruses, citing serious biosafety concerns following several laboratory incidents. The moratorium was lifted in 2017, but by then much of the work had effectively moved overseas. EcoHealth Alliance, led by Peter Daszak, continued receiving millions in NIH grants for bat coronavirus research - with a significant portion funneled through subawards to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in Wuhan, China.

Related: 

• CIA Met With Ralph Baric In 2015 To Discuss "Coronavirus Evolution And Possible Human Adaptation": Emails
   
• Is This The Man Who Created COVID-19 In Fauci's US Lab?

At the same time, University of North Carolina virologist Ralph Baric - one of the world’s leading experts on coronaviruses - had been collaborating closely with WIV scientists, including Shi Zhengli, in work described in a 2018 DEFUSE funding proposal (that was rejected by DARPA) to create an aerosolized bat covid that could infect humans. Baric’s lab created “humanized mice” expressing the human ACE2 receptor and engineered chimeric viruses to study how bat coronaviruses could jump to humans. Much of this high-risk work, which had previously been conducted on U.S. soil, was effectively transferred to the WIV - located in the very city where COVID-19 first emerged. 

Details of the DEFUSE project were first leaked by Major Joseph Murphy, an employee of US military research agency DARPA, in the summer of 2021 and further details of earlier drafts have come to light this month thanks to public record requests from U.S. Right to Know (USRTK).

In DEFUSE, Baric proposed to create a virus that was, to most intents and purposes, SARS-CoV-2. The proposal included inserting a furin cleavage site into a coronavirus spike protein, an order for the restrictive enzyme BsmBI, the search for a binding domain that would infect ACE2 human receptors and a requirement for a viral genome around 25% different to SARS.

One down (until Boasberg knights him), many to go.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 12:00

A Nation Divided: The Chilling Embrace Of Political Violence In The US

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

We are seeing increasing support for violent action across social media, including those lamenting that the recent presidential assassination was not successful. Conservative sites have been featuring teachers and others who were upset that the recent effort failed, including one who has now lost her job. The current violence and violent rhetoric have been building for years as our leaders fuel the rage in the nation.

One poll by the University of Virginia Center for Politics found that 52 percent of Biden supporters say Republicans are now a threat to American life, while 47 percent of Trump supporters say the same about Democrats. Among Biden supporters, 41 percent believed violence is justified “to stop [Republicans] from achieving their goals.” An almost identical percentage, 38 percent, of Trump supporters embraced violence to stop Democrats.

The support for violence has been growing. One prior poll shows a quarter of Americans supporting political violence.

An earlier survey from the Baker Center at Georgetown University also captured the growing divide among Americans on this 250th anniversary year of our revolution. The public’s distrust of the media, democracy, and each other appears to be growing as one out of seven Americans now embraces political violence.

That survey also showed the continuing drop in support for the media. As the mainstream media continues to show the same bias and advocacy journalism that has been alienating many citizens, roughly half (49%) of the public has little or no confidence in the press. Roughly the same percentage believes that the press favors the Democrats in its coverage. The percentage with great confidence in the media is now just 18%.

One of the most chilling aspects of the survey is the drop in faith in each other and in democracy. A shocking 57% believe that members of the opposite party are a somewhat or very serious “threat to the U.S. and its people.” Only 69% say that democracy is “preferable to any other kind of government.”

The drop in support of democracy is particularly concerning with almost 10% of the public saying that political violence is “sometimes” warranted and 5% say that individual acts of political violence are “often” or “very often” justified.

With the third attempted assassination of President Donald Trump, the survey suggests and a sizable number of Americans may share the views of Cole Allen that even murder is now a legitimate, even righteous, response to political opponents.

The New York Times recently ran a podcast in which radical Hasan Piker, the New York Times Opinion Culture Editor Nadja Spiegelman, and New Yorker writer Jia Tolentino captured the moral relativism that has taken hold of the left in American society. They cheerfully described the rationale for everything from “microlooting” to murder.

In response to the latest assassination attempt, Hakeem Jeffries declared, “I don’t give a damn” about criticism over his reckless rhetoric. That is hardly surprising for a politician whose favorite political prop appears to be a baseball bat, but it shows how politicians hope to ride this rage wave back into power. For Jeffries, rage may be the ticket to becoming the next Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The sad fact is that violent rhetoric works in an age of rage. Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger  called upon her supporters to “Let your rage fuel you.” She then refused to withdraw her support for the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, Jay Jones, who once expressed his desire to kill his political opponents and his children.

It is the combination of this rising moral relativism with the failing faith in our system that represents an existential threat to our Republic. We will be facing unprecedented economic and social challenges in this decade. We have a system that is designed for such changes.

In my book, Rage and the Republic” I discuss what I view as a crisis of faith in our values and ourselves.

When Michel Guillaume Jean de Crèvecoeur asked, “What then is the new American, this new man?” he was a Frenchman. Later, the author, cartographer, farmer, and diplomat would adopt a new name as John Hector St. John as well as a new identity: an American farmer. ,,, What was so striking about Letters from an American Farmer was the fourth word: American. At a time when most people still identified with their states as Georgians or Virginians, Crèvecoeur wrote as one of a new people known as Americans…

The greatest challenge of this century may be a rediscovery of that essential character that seemed so clear to these early writers when they first came upon our shores. Call it a crisis of faith or a confusion of the times, but many seem unsure whether we represent something beyond the totality of our wealth or power. We were much more than that when we first assumed the moniker of Americans. The question, is what we are now? Or, perhaps more pointedly, what do we aspire to be in this new century?

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:40

BOJ Keeps Rates On Hold In Rare 6-3 Vote Split As It Warns Of Looming Stagflation

In the first G5 central bank announcement of the week, overnight the Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate in a 6-3 vote, despite forecasting a sharp rise in inflation as the war in the Middle East sends commodity prices higher and clouds the global economic outlook while testing Japan's given its exposure to rising energy prices.

While the decision on Tuesday to keep rates at about 0.75% was in line with market expectations, it came via a rare six-to-three vote split of the Monetary Policy Committee, the biggest divergence of opinion under governor Kazuo Ueda, and since the launch of the bank’s negative interest rate policy in 2016.

The three dissenters called for an immediate rate increase to 1%, reflecting fears that the BoJ is at risk of falling even further behind the curve by postponing rate increases as it seeks to “normalise” monetary policy at a time when Japan's inflation is dangerously overheating due to sharp wage increases in recent years. 

After the BOJ announcement, traders were convinced that rates will rise after the next meeting in June.

Speaking at a press conference later on Tuesday that was widely interpreted as hawkish, Ueda said the central bank would make appropriate decisions “so that we do not fall behind the curve”, yet even now he refused to outline a formal timeframe for the BoJ to decide whether conditions were right to raise rates.

“Given the high level of uncertainty around the conflict in the Middle East, the likelihood of achieving our forecasts has declined,” said Ueda. 

He added that the central bank “wants to spend a little more time scrutinizing how the Middle East conflict affects the economy and prices, and whether the risk to growth and inflation could change”.

While two of the three dissenters, Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata, are known hawks who have voted against the governor at previous meetings, analysts noted the addition of the more dovish Junko Nakagawa.

“Three dissenting votes is not a huge surprise, but Nakagawa being one of them is,” said JPMorgan senior Japan economist Benjamin Shatil. “The Board is sending a clear signal that it is ready for a June rate hike. Whether global conditions have settled sufficiently and tacit government approval is in place by then is another question.”

In the BoJ’s stagflationary outlook statement, the bank warned that Japan’s economic growth was likely to slow in the current fiscal year; at the same time it also significantly raised its inflation forecast over the same period.

The committee said core CPI was expected to reach 2.8% for the current fiscal year ending in March 2027, up sharply from its previous forecast of 1.9% issued just three months ago. 

“The rise in crude oil prices reflecting the impact of the situation in the Middle East is expected to push down corporate profits and households’ real income,” the BoJ said.

The statement added that the risks to economic activity were “skewed to the downside and risks to prices are skewed to the upside”. In other words, a classical staglationary setup. 

Japan is particularly vulnerable to energy shocks from the crisis in the Gulf. The country is heavily reliant on imported energy, and sources more than 90% of its crude from the Middle East.

The BoJ was the first of five major central banks making rate decisions this week, with the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Canada all expected to follow its lead and keep rates on hold as they asses the war-related risk of prolonged inflation.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, underlined the BoJ’s upward revision of inflation forecasts, including that inflation will average 2.2% in fiscal 2028.

“Barring a renewed escalation in the Middle East, the bank will probably lift its policy rate again at its next meeting in June,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Goldman's Akira Otani said that July is still his base-case scenario for the next rate hike. "However, uncertainty over the timing of the rate hike is high. While it could come earlier than July depending on inflationary pressures, we would expect it to be pushed back from July to H2 if the Japanese economy were to fall into a recession through factors like a deterioration in the terms of trade."

"Even if tensions in the Middle East were to stabilize, we believe a July rate hike is more likely than a June one. Uncertainty over crude oil production and transportation in the Middle East will remain high for the time being and the impact remains uncertain even in a de-escalation scenario. Under such circumstances, and with no signs of groundwork being laid with the government for a rate hike, data and information showing the Japanese economy is unlikely to suffer a significant negative impact and is likely to achieve moderate growth will become more important, in our view. Therefore, while the possibility of a June rate hike cannot be ruled out, we see no need to change our base-case scenario of a July rate hike."

The BoJ’s hawkish statement pushed the yen higher against the US dollar, before the Japanese currency weakened back to around ¥159.62, and was lower on the day. The widely watched Nikkei 225 Average, which surged to an all-time high of 60,537 points on Monday, shed 1%, while the Topix, which has a heavier weighting of banks and financial companies, was up 1%. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:25

US Energy Chief Says Hormuz Can Reopen Without Clearing All Mines, Warns Iran Shut-ins Could Be Devastating

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that not all mines placed by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz need to removed for ships to resume transiting the vital passageway: “You just need a pathway for ships to be moved in and out,” Wright said in an interview on the sidelines of the Three Seas Summit and Business Forum in Dubrovnik. “I think that can happen quickly” he added suggesting that a restart can happen far sooner than the full demining timeline. Fully clearing the strait of mines could take six months, a Pentagon official said during a classified Congressional briefing last week, the Washington Post reported.

Iran has said it laid mines along the most frequently used routes of the narrow waterway, which has been effectively closed since February 28, and through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited before the US and Israel launched a war on the Islamic Republic.

Understandably, shipping companies have been highly reluctant to attempt to navigate Hormuz, fearing seizure, mines, and a lack of other safety guarantees.

The longer the Strait of Hormuz is shut the longer a historic energy disruption will continue. In the US, a surge in pump prices comes months before President Donald Trump’s Republican party faces midterm elections.

Wright also said the US plans to announce “historic” pipeline agreements that will lead to increases in the amount of US oil and natural gas Europe imports as part of the Trump “Peace Pipeline Agenda.”

Last but not least, the US energy secretary repeated verbatim what we said over the weekend, when we pointed out that a prolonged shut in would be devastating to Iran's oil reservoirs as over half of them are low pressure "putting them at risk for permanent loss after shut-ins, via near-wellbore water emulsions, clay swelling, and water blockages."

Most Gulf reservoirs have medium pressure, but over half of Iran's have very low pressure, putting them at risk for permanent loss after shut-ins, via near-wellbore water emulsions, clay swelling, and water blockages(chart Rystad/Goldman). https://t.co/I1duGf7s1R pic.twitter.com/9kIoKzDT6g

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2026

Fast forward to this morning, when Wright told Bloomberg TV that "Iran does not have a lot of oil storage capacity and its old reservoirs are not suitable if the country decides to shut down production." That's because “they’ve got old reservoirs that are low pressure, which means it’s much more destructive if they have to shut in their production."

With Iran having about 10-15 days before hitting tank tops (depending on how many tankers they use for storage), we'll find out in a few weeks if he is right. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 11:05

Collateral Damage

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-ASset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Negotiations between the US and Iran are going nowhere. In fact, they’re not really even happening at all. Over the weekend, Axios reported that Iran gave the US a proposal to reopen the Strait — not to end the war. The proposal includes extending the ceasefire and an assertion that any conversations about Iran’s nuclear program are off the table until the Strait is open and the US blockade is lifted. The US has not indicated whether it will accept or reject the proposal at the time of writing.

Assuming the US does agree to extend its indefinite ceasefire, a flimsy ceasefire extension, even if agreed to by both parties, holds little water. Remember, keeping the Strait open was a condition of the current ceasefire as agreed to on April 8, and we can all see how well that held up. Just take a look at the prices at the pump.

While conversations between the US and Iran stall, Iran is making friends elsewhere. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Putin yesterday, as Bloomberg reported that Araghchi told Putin he is “committed to strengthening the country’s partnership with Russia” and that “the Iranian people are able to ‘resist US aggression and will be able to overcome it.’”

As Iran and Russia are making nice, the US and Germany are not. During a visit to a school in western Germany, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the Trump Administration was being “humiliated” by Iran: “The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.” Trump has not commented on Merz’ claims at the time of writing.

The longer the Strait remains closed, the longer the European economy, and energy complex, is squeezed. Germany has rejected Trump’s calls to join the war under NATO, despite German leaders softly echoing support of US military efforts. Europe has drafted a plan to re-open the Strait after the war has ended, that is not enough to appease Trump, who has made his demands for NATO participation in the Iran war clear. But the question remains just how much collateral damage Europe is willing to be subject to in the pursuit of keeping its hands clean.

Europe’s reliance on energy from the Middle East and direct flows through the Strait of Hormuz suggest that they are in for more pain than the US under a prolonged closure. At the same time, they don’t have a fanatic obduracy to tolerate it like the Iran (or rather, the IRGC at the expense of the Iranian people). If negotiations fail to result in a somewhat peaceful re-opening of the Strait and conclusion of the US naval blockade, Europe may have no choice but to get involved.

It’s probable that the Trump Administration is aware of this. Trump has lambasted European leaders for refusing to support the US and in some cases, outright refusing to cooperate. If the US keeps the Strait closed and inflicts enough second-hand damage on Europe, Trump may be able to achieve the NATO military “cooperation” he has been asking for.

Crude oil futures have continued to grind higher, trading up to highs of $109/bbl yesterday. Futures prices have started to converge with the physical market, which is currently pricing crude at $113/bbl, narrowing the spread from highs of $35.9 earlier this month to only $4, which would be more consistent with levels seen pre-war.

Meanwhile, the Fed drama saga continues. The path to Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair seems to have cleared as the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has dropped its criminal probe into Powell with regard to the Federal Reserve’s renovation budget. However, whether Powell will stay on the Board is not yet certain. While Powell’s term as Chair ends in May, he is allowed to stay on the Board of Governors until January 2028.

Despite it being a highly popular question from reporters during the Fed decision press conference, Powell had been tight lipped about his plans for a while, until confirming more recently that he would stay on the Board until the DOJ investigation levied against him was concluded.

However, while the DOJ has dismissed the case, that doesn’t mean that Powell’s troubles are over. Rather, this means that the case has now landed on the desk of the Fed’s Office of Inspector General (OIG), though according to the Fed’s own article about the renovation, the OIG has had full access to all financial records and information throughout the duration of the project.

Given the dropped charges against Powell, that has opened up Senator Thom Tillis to vote to officially confirm Warsh as Fed Chair. Whether or not the Fed meeting tomorrow will be Powell’s last is still TBD. Read more from our Fed whisperer, Philip Marey, here.

A little farther north, Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced the creation of a Canadian sovereign wealth fund, called the “Canada Strong Fund.” The fund is designed to further lower barriers to business and investment in Canada—something the Carney has spoken about extensively as a part of his mission—by “investing in strategic Canadian projects and companies.”

A more financially-savvy Canadian government does not come without drawbacks. Carney has recently come under scrutiny by some after his ethics disclosure, which has led some to question the dissonance in Carney’s insistence that Canada needs to diversify away from the US, while he himself is heavily invested there.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:15

Conference Board Confidence Unexpectedly Jumps To Highest In 2026

Despite war (and rising gas prices) now fully embedded in respondents' minds, it is perhaps surprising that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence rose considerably more than expected to 92.8 in April (89.0 exp) from an upwardly revised 92.2.

Present Situation dipped very modestly from 124.1 to 123.8 (120.1 exp) while Expectations rose from 71.0 to 72.2 (69.2 exp)

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest headline print in 2026.

“Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month," said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

"This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”

While the overall trend is still lower, The Board's indicator signaled a pick up in the labor market...

Source: Bloomberg

A two-week ceasefire and a rebound in stock market indices within the survey-sample period (April 1–22) likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators somewhat in April after spiking in March.

Still, consumers remained wary.

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but continued to be elevated. The percentage of consumers saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net rose to nearly 50%. Expectations for higher stock prices a year from now ticked up.

 

Among demographic groups, confidence continued to trend downward on a six-month moving average basis for consumers aged 35 and up while younger consumers were a tad more confident in April. Respondents under 35 remained the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least.

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence improved among Millennials and Gen Z but declined among older generations. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis varied, but most income groups expressed less optimism.

By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence fell for Independents and improved slightly for Democrats.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 10:11

'Quality Learing Center' And 20 Other Somali-Linked Businesses Raided By FBI, Homeland Security In Minnesota

Federal agents from the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) executed court-authorized search warrants at more than 20 locations across the Minneapolis area early Tuesday morning, targeting businesses primarily linked to the Somali-American community as part of an ongoing criminal fraud investigation.

Fox News congressional correspondent Bill Melugin reported that the Department of Justice confirmed the operation to the network, stating it involves "court-authorized law enforcement activity as part of an ongoing fraud investigation." A separate DHS statement emphasized that HSI, working with federal, state, and local partners, carried out the warrants "relating to the rampant fraud of U.S. taxpayers dollars." Sources indicated approximately 22 warrants were served, explicitly tied to fraud schemes rather than immigration enforcement.

BREAKING: DOJ confirms to @FoxNews that FBI and HSI agents are currently raiding 20+ locations in the Minneapolis, MN area in relation to ongoing federal fraud investigations. Sources tell FOX the locations are largely Somali linked businesses, including the infamous "Quality…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) April 28, 2026

One prominent target was the Quality Learning Center (aka "Quality Learing Center") on Nicollet Avenue. The site, which previously operated as Salama Child Care Center, received roughly $1.9 million in Minnesota Child Care Assistance Program funds in fiscal year 2025 alone. It gained national attention in late December 2025 after independent journalist Nick Shirley released a video showing the center appearing largely empty during business hours, with a prominently misspelled sign. Shirley alleged widespread "ghost" operations billing government programs for nonexistent services and children.

NEW: The Quality Learing Center in Minneapolis is now "trucking" in children after Nick Shirley's viral video, according to the New York Post.

The Post reports that the parking lot at the infamous Quality Learing Center is now "bustling with kids."

"We’ve never seen kids go… pic.twitter.com/K578UTvLXG

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) December 30, 2025

The center voluntarily surrendered its state license in early January amid heightened scrutiny. It had a prior federal footprint: in May 2015, the same location was raided by the FBI and Minnesota DHS over allegations of billing state programs for non-existent children, leading to license revocation actions for safety violations.

A Pattern of Massive Fraud

Today’s raids continue a months-long federal surge into Minnesota’s social-services programs, which have been plagued by some of the largest fraud cases in recent U.S. history. The most notorious remains Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that prosecutors say orchestrated a $250+ million scheme to steal federal child nutrition funds during the COVID-19 pandemic through fake meal sites, inflated attendance rosters, and money laundering. Dozens of defendants—predominantly Somali-American—have been charged, with multiple convictions and sentencings continuing into 2026.

Other active investigations include:

• Autism and early intervention (EIDBI) services fraud
• Housing Stabilization Services
• Integrated Community Supports
• Medicaid personal-care assistance schemes
• SNAP benefit trafficking (including "Operation Cold SNAP" raids in April 2026)

In January, Federal authorities reported issuing over 1,750 subpoenas, executing more than 130 search warrants, and interviewing over 1,000 witnesses across these cases.

Homeland Security Investigations @ICEGov are on the ground in Minneapolis right now conducting a massive investigation on childcare and other rampant fraud.

More coming. pic.twitter.com/0DhyKedSyu

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@EnvoyNoem) December 29, 2025

FBI Director Kash Patel publicly described the Minnesota situation as "the tip of a very large iceberg," prompting a surge of bureau resources to the state. DHS has conducted hundreds of door-to-door inspections under initiatives such as Operation Twin Shield.

Political and Community Context

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison have faced sharp criticism from congressional Republicans and House Oversight committees for what critics call inadequate oversight of high-risk providers and slow state-level responses. State officials have countered that many centers serve legitimate low-income families (including large Somali-American populations) and that enforcement actions predate viral videos.

Rep. Ilhan Omar, whose district encompasses much of the affected Minneapolis area, has condemned the fraud as "reprehensible" while warning against broad stigmatization of the Somali community.

Her office has distanced itself from charged individuals, though some Republican lawmakers have pointed to past legislative efforts (such as expansions of child nutrition programs) and constituent ties as areas of scrutiny. No charges have been filed against Omar or her immediate family in these matters.

Somali community leaders have expressed concerns about economic fallout and reputational harm to legitimate businesses, while federal prosecutors stress that the investigations target criminal conduct and protect funds intended for vulnerable populations.

As of early Tuesday, no arrests or specific new charges from today’s warrants have been publicly detailed. More information is expected from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Minnesota, the FBI’s Minneapolis Field Office, and DHS. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:50

Chaos, Black Rain, Evacuations: Tuapse Oil Facility Struck For Third Time This Month

Rosneft's sprawling oil refinery in southern port town of Tuapse has been struck by Ukrainian drones once again, unleashing a huge fire and significant destruction, in what marks the third such attack just this month.

"Another serious incident has occurred in Tuapse. A large-scale fire broke out at an oil refinery due to an enemy drone attack," Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram, amid large-scale evacuations of the civilian population from the area.

Tuapse disaster in wake of Ukrainian attack, via Wiki Commons

Regional aviation hubs in nearby Krasnodar, Gelendzhik, and Sochi were closed as a result of the blaze which sent a large black smoke plume into the air stretching for at least 100km, regional reports indicate.

"For the safety of residents living near the refinery, evacuations are underway. A temporary accommodation center has been set up at local School No. 6. I urge residents to follow all recommendations," the regional government statement continued.

According to Ukrainian media:

The Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel CyberBoroshno reported that at least four tanks were burning at the refinery following the strike.

“If in previous attacks the tank farm was hit, this time the refinery itself was directly targeted… There is a possibility that the fire could spread to neighboring tanks,” the report said.

Reuters says that as a result of the several waves of attacks on Tuapse, operations at the plant have remained halted since April 16 - which was the first big strike of the month.

One is left wondering, what about Russian defensive measures and why have these failed so spectacularly? First, it should be noted that small drones have become efficient and their size advantage is seen in evading conventional radar and anti-air missiles, by and large. TASS only has this to offer by way of official statement:

"Intensive efforts are underway" to prevent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

All details about targets hit by the Kiev regime are classified: "As for any information regarding targets hit as a result of strikes by the Kiev regime, the details are classified; we will not discuss them publicly at this time."

Measures to deal with the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the oil refinery in Tuapse are being taken "at an appropriate level."

The complex processes some 12 million metric tons of crude annually and remains a crucial and major export route for naphtha, fuel oil, and diesel.

Rusya'nın Tuapse Petrol Rafinerisi, düzenlenen dron saldırısı sonucu yeniden alev aldı. Görüntülerde, önceki saldırılardan sağlam kalan yeni depolama tanklarının isabet alarak patladığı görülüyor. pic.twitter.com/HLc61fGH8B

— The Bitig (@thebitig) April 28, 2026

The attacks have made parts of the sky black and the aftermath poses a safety risk for residents, also with reports of 'toxic rain' over the town, as the environmental situation spiraling - also with significant amounts of crude said to be leaking into the Black Sea.

Currently the globe's attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:35

US Home Prices Dipped In February For First Time Since June 2025

For the first time since June 2025, US home prices (in the largest 20 cities) fell in February (by 0.05% MoM) according to the latest (admittedly lagging and smoothed) Case-Shiller data.

The decline comes after prices surged into the turn of year and has now dragged the YoY gain in prices down to just +0.9% - the weakest since July 2023. 

The trend is clear across almost every city...

Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, one could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...

But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 09:25

Israel Just Became Germany's Largest Arms Partner

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is regarded as the top authority on the international arms trade, released its latest report about related trends from 2021-2025 last month.

The top takeaway is that “Europe was the region with the largest share of total global arms imports (33 per cent) for the first time since the 1960s”, but there are three other relatively more minor details therein that most observers missed but which are also important to be aware of. They are as follows:

1. South Korea Edged Out The US As Poland’s Top Arms Supplier

Last year’s report covering the years 2020-2024 noted that Poland imported 42% of its arms from South Korea during that period and 45% from the US, yet the last report shows that it imported 47% from South Korea and 44% from the US. This respectively amounted to 46% of South Korean arms exports from 2020-2024 and 58% from 2021-2025. In total, South Korea exported 2.2% of the world’s arms during the first period and 3% during the second, thus showing the global importance of sales to Poland.

Why this matters is that it represents the first time to the best of the author’s knowledge that a NATO member is now supplied more by an Asian country than a fellow Western one. Poland’s enormous military build-up, which has resulted in it now fielding NATO’s third-largest army, is also a boon for the South Korean arms industry. With Poland increasingly demonstrating the quality of these wares to its allies during NATO drills, it’s possible that other members of the bloc might soon follow its lead.

2. Kazakhstan’s Is Gradually Replacing Russian Arms With Western Ones

During the period 2020-2024, Kazakhstan imported 6.4% of its arms from Spain and 1.5% from Turkiye as its second- and third-largest arms suppliers, with Russia far ahead of them with 88% of its supplies. During the latest period from 2021-2025, imports from Spain increased to 7.9% while France replaced Turkiye as Kazakhstan’s third-largest supplier at 3.6%, with Russia’s share slightly decreasing to 83%. The decrease in Russia’s supplies was therefore roughly replaced by the increase in Western supplies.

Why this matters is that it contextualizes Kazakhstan’s decision last December to produce NATO-standard shells, the potential consequences of which were analyzed here as possibly placing it on an irreversible collision course with Russia. The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” across the South Caucasus could also facilitate the flow of more Western arms by reducing transport costs. It’s therefore expected that Kazakhstan will continue to gradually replace its Russian arms with Western ones.

3. Israel Became Germany’s Largest Arms Partner Due To A Mega Arms Deal

Israel’s delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany last year, which was its largest export deal ever at $4.6 billion, led to its share of Germany’s arms imports jumping from 13% during the period 2020-2024 to 55% during the period 2021-2025. At the same time, Israel remained Germany’s third-largest arms client at 10% of its exports from 2021-2025 compared to 11% of them from 2020-2024, with the slight 1% decrease likely being due to three-month-long curb on arms exports to it last year.

Why this matters is because Israel’s new role as Germany’s largest arms supplier might worsen its ties with Russia, especially if exports evolve from defensive systems like the Arrow 3 to offensive ones like the $7 billion deal for 500 rocket launchers and thousands of missiles that they’re now negotiating. Moreover, West Asian geopolitics might radically change after the end of the Third Gulf War, so Russia might not be able to reciprocally sell similar systems to Iran. Israel would then gain an edge over Russia.

What these three trends have in common is their adverse impact on Russian national security. The Kremlin likely assumed that Poland and Germany would continue militarizing, even competing to lead Russia’s containment, but South Korea and Israel’s new respective roles as their top suppliers probably came as a surprise. What it might not have anticipated at all, however, was the West gradually making gains in the Kazakh arms market. Russia will have to deal with these latent threats somehow or another.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 07:20

Iran Already Scrambling For Oil Storage After Two Weeks Of US Blockade

Trump's blockade is having a predictable effect on Iran's economy and oil industry, with reports that the regime is scrambling to repurpose old and rusty tankers as floating storage.  Kharg Island is hitting capacity and the results could lead to disaster for Iran's oil wells. 

The regime is reportedly moving to expand crude storage at the island, where around 90% of their energy exports are processed, by reactivating a 30-year-old crude carrier called M/T Nasha.  It's a bad sign for Iran, indicating that the country’s main oil hub is nearing its onshore storage limit.  Maritime analysts say the vessel, which had been anchored empty for years, is being repositioned as floating storage to absorb crude that still has to move out of the system. 

To prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space at Kharg Island, Iran has brought NASHA (9079107) out of retirement. She's a 30yo VLCC that's been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5–2 days. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/jFhq2xP0mU

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 23, 2026

But how much time will decommissioned tankers buy Iran?  Current estimates indicate Kharg Island has roughly 13 million barrels of spare onshore storage remaining at the terminal, while net inflows are running at about 1.0 million to 1.1 million barrels per day.  At that pace, storage could be filled in about 12 to 13 days, which places the saturation point in late April to early May if current flows hold.  A large tanker gives them another potential 2 million barrels of capacity.  In other words, not much. 

This data is a near match to JP Morgan's recent assessment that Iran has between 20 - 26 days of capacity (including emergency measures) before they hit the wall and are forced to shut down their oil fields. 

Trump's assertion on Sunday that Iran's oil infrastructure may "explode in three days" due to the blockade might be a bit optimistic, but with the threat of overcapacity it is likely that the Iranians will be forced to the negotiating table in the near term.

The regime's only other option is to divert the oil away from Kharg to the Jask Oil Terminal at Kooh Mobarak using the Goreh-Jask pipeline.  But this storage is limited and may already be full.

There are also limited reports that Iran is increasing "flaring" at wells to burn off excess.  To keep wells operating safely (avoiding sudden shutdowns that can cause permanent geological issues), operators are flaring off excess associated gas (and possibly some liquid byproducts) at a heightened rate.

If wells are forced to shut down due to lack of storage, this could cause permanent damage and render the wells unusable in the future.  Recovery is expensive and difficult. 

If the current data is accurate, then Iran has approximately two more weeks before their economy is destroyed.  Loss of $430 million per day in export revenues aside, permanent damage to their oil fields would result in a long term economic disaster. 

The danger of well shutdowns is probably the reason why the regime has offered new proposals every few days to open the Strait of Hormuz, though, they continue to call for a separate negotiation on their estimated 970 pounds of enriched Uranium stockpile. 

There is little incentive for Trump to lift the blockade at this time, given the amount of leverage he will have over the Iranian economy if he maintains restrictions on their oil exports for another two weeks.  The regime is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and will have to decide soon if their oil wells are more important to them than their Uranium.      

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 05:45

12-Year-Old French Girl Collapses After Judge Releases Men Arrested For Gang Raping Her In Airbnb

Via Remix News,

Two young men, both adults, suspected of gang rape in an Airbnb in the France’s Décines-Charpieu (Rhône), have been released from custody, shocking the family of one of the victims.

The victim’s lawyer, David Metaxas, spoke on behalf of the victim’s relatives, who told LyonMag that the judge’s decision was “incomprehensible.” Not only have both men been released to roam freely in the streets, but the judge did not even issue a restriction on contact with the victim, which means the two men could approach her once again.

Last week, the two men, aged 20 and 21, were arrested for the rape involving the 12-year-old, as well as a 16-year-old girl who had allegedly led the younger victim to the apartment. After reportedly exchanging messages with the two young men via Snapchat, the teen encouraged her younger friend to come with her to the Airbnb. Alcohol and drugs were allegedly consumed, with an excessive amount of hard liquor given to the 12-year-old.

Falling unconscious, the younger victim recounted waking up “lying on a bed covered in blood,” before realizing what had happened, recounts Lyon Mag. It was when she turned her phone back on that her mother was able to geolocate her, allowing the police to intervene. She is said to have run away from her home in Givors before the incident.

However, now the perpetrators are free. The family of the 12-year-old says her safety and innocence were tossed aside from the get-go, with police allegedly not even asking her to file a complaint initially.

“They were very poorly received, as if they were a nuisance,” said David Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old. He pointed to a total lack of support and guidance, adding the very obvious and visible signs of rape suffered by the young girl.

“It is unacceptable that the form to file a complaint was not given to them by the police. It must be remembered that they were dealing with a young girl who had been deflowered, anally and orally penetrated, and who had wounds all over her body.”

Unfortunately, the 16-year-old girl and the accused men all stated that the girl was consenting. “Everyone agrees that she was consenting, or even that she was provoking, even though she is 12 years old and was completely drunk to the point of losing consciousness,” he said, adding that at the hearing, the girl was in an advanced state of shock.

“The lack of coercive measures concerning the suspects […] is incomprehensible,” stated Metaxas, the lawyer representing the 12-year-old, as quoted by LyonMag. He added that the court has failed to demand any judicial supervision or even a restraining order on the alleged perpetrators.  

“They can, if they wish, contact and visit the young girl whenever they want,”  he warns.  “Therefore, there is total incomprehension, not to mention anger, on the part of the family.”

As for the young victim, she allegedly collapsed in the lawyer’s office upon hearing of the decision and was taken to the hospital. “She is in a state of total shock. She couldn’t utter a single word in my office. The justice system needs to take charge of this case very quickly,” he stated.

Metaxas insists he will not let the matter be and will be asking the public prosecutor that “a specialized service be put in charge of the investigation with the implementation of coercive measures to ensure the safety of this minor.”

The two men are still under investigation.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 05:00

Pentagon Investigates Mystery Fire At UK Base Used For Bombing Iran

The US Air Force has reportedly opened an investigation into a fire that broke out over the weekend at RAF Fairford in the UK. Crucially, it is a key US-allied base hosting a US bomber unit carrying out strikes on Iran as part of Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

The fire started early Sunday inside an "old or disused building" at the airbase, a UK defense ministry spokesperson has said. The Pentagon is investigating alongside local partners: "An investigation has been initiated and is ongoing. More information will be released as it becomes available," a statement said.

source: The Telegraph

No injuries have been reported and officials said the blaze was quickly continued, with no further threat posed to the base and surrounding community. But it was clearly very large at one point, video evidence shows.

The US was permitted starting in March to use the base for Iran-related operations. The Telegraph describes further of the fire:

Several crews were deployed to the incident at RAF Fairford in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Footage taken overnight appears to show smoke billowing from what is claimed to be the base’s commissary, a shop that provides food and equipment. Other pictures from the scene show that the building’s roof collapsed as firefighters brought the blaze under control.

Authorities are suspicious there may have been some kind of act of sabotage at the base, given widespread local opposition to its us by American forces to bomb Iran.

There's also been chatter of Irani-linked 'terror cells' in Europe. According to more from The Telegraph:

While some welcomed the arrival, there had been protests against the decision, with around 200 people gathered at the base on Saturday. Protesters held signs that read “No war on Iran”, “US out of British bases” and “Stop Trump’s deadly wars”.

The use of RAF Fairford halves the time US bombers need to spend in the air. Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to allow US troops to use the base prevented what would have been a 37-hour round trip from Missouri to Iran.

RAF Fairford remains among the few European bases capable of supporting long-range US bombers such as the B-52 and B-2, and thus is an important staging and logistics hub for the Pentagon.

Major fire reported at RAF Fairford overnight, a British airbase hosting a sizeable forward-deployed contingent of USAF bombers for Iran strikes.

The fire reportedly gutted a commissary building. pic.twitter.com/cveufpjC1t

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 26, 2026

Tensions have of late been strained between the US and UK over the Iran war, with PM Starmer dealing with a lot of domestic opposition, and Trump at the same time pressuring him to do more alongside the US in Iran and the Hormuz Strait.

If the fire was indeed arson, European authorities will likely look at the potential that it could have been Russia-linked, given widespread allegations of Moscow-backed sabotage operations in Europe and the UK, throughout the Ukraine war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 04:15

NATO Minus US: European Militaries Won't Add Up To Deter Russia

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s European nations would need to bolster standing militaries by at least 300,000 troops and significantly boost defense spending beyond 3.5 percent of gross domestic product - at least 250 billion euros - while reviving and integrating their industrial base to defend themselves against Russia without the United States.

And they’d need to do that fast, according to a 2025 joint analysis by European think tanks Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for World Economy.

They warn that even with 80,000 American soldiers and airmen stationed on 30 bases on the continent—and the United States’ capacity to rapidly deploy forces—Moscow will test NATO’s resolve “within three to 10 years.”

The once-inconceivable prospect of the United States withdrawing from NATO is now a possibility. President Donald Trump—never a fan of the 32-nation coalition the Pentagon has spearheaded since 1949—has called for a “very serious examining” of the alliance, after its members failed to respond to his appeal to assist in the Iran war or join the U.S. Navy’s Arabian Sea blockade of Iranian shipping. 

Trump has vowed Europeans could face a “reckoning” without American leadership and support. Such a departure would require unlikely congressional approval, but the president’s statements are sparking discussion on both sides of the Atlantic about a restructuring of the alliance that would require Europeans to shoulder more of NATO’s burden.

As widely reported, European allies are actively discussing and preparing for a “NATO minus U.S.” scenario. The idea originated in response to Trump’s demand for Europeans to bulk up support for Ukraine in fighting off Russia’s invasion, his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark, and his characterization of member states as “cowards” unlikely to uphold NATO’s commitments.

While Americans have questioned NATO’s post-Cold War resolve since former President Barack Obama’s administration, Europeans in turn have questioned Trump’s reliability in meeting treaty obligations. 

In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during the alliance’s 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries—roughly matching the percent of GDP the U.S. spends on its armed forces—and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements, such as cybersecurity, crisis response, and adapting roads, rail lines, bridges, and ports to military needs.

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal (L) and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte address the audience during a press statement at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on Oct. 15, 2025. Prodding by the United States to be more self-reliant in continental defense was already an urgency in most European capitals after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images Muscle and Money

The Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis documents Europe’s armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million troops. In order to withstand a hypothetical Russian invasion, a European-only force would need 300,000 more infantry soldiers, or roughly 50 more brigades, than it had in 2025. It would need a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces with more than 1 million 155 mm shells—the minimum for three months of combat, the Bruegel/Kiel Institute analysis states. 

That boost in manpower and armaments would exceed the current French, German, Italian, and British forces combined.

And that’s just ground forces.

To match Russian war-footing military production—even with Ukraine attrition—a Europe-only military would need collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units. Such an army would need to replace stationed U.S. forces and rotational deployments within the 65-mile Suwalki Corridor between Poland and Lithuania, while also establishing bases in Moldova and Romania.

These are but a few of the challenges a “NATO minus the U.S.” would face, military analysts and international relations scholars told The Epoch Times. And as Europeans by necessity assumed a more robust posture on the continent, American forces would need to compensate for the loss of specialties and skills brought by their European allies.

French soldiers dismantle a drone during the Dynamic Front 26 exercise in Cincu, Romania, on Feb. 9, 2026. In response to Trump’s demand that NATO allies commit 5 percent of GDP to defense, members agreed during its 2025 summit to commit 3.5 percent to their militaries and 1.5 percent for infrastructure improvements. Andrei Pungovschi/Getty Images

“Non-U.S. NATO forces are well-trained and have some highly competent defense manufacturing industries,” said University of Miami professor of politics June Teufel Dreyer, a senior Foreign Policy Research Institute fellow and former U.S.–China Economic and Security Review commissioner. 

European giants such as Thales and Leonardo would “surely be attracted by the idea of more indigenous investment,” Dreyer said. But, she added, European defense contractors “also know the funds they need aren’t guaranteed” without orders from the U.S. military to, for instance, annually build 2,000 “long-range loitering munitions”—drones—to match Russia’s numbers.

“The French and the Germans build highly thought of diesel-electric submarines; Sweden produces great fighter planes,” Dreyer said.

But from a nuclear deterrent perspective, a U.S. departure from NATO is problematic. Dreyer pointed to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s June 2025 announcement that Britain would buy at least 12 U.S.-made F-35s to “enhance the interoperability of NATO defense” in its nuclear posture, since these jets would be the UK’s only nuclear deterrent beyond its submarine force. The stealth fighter is the first to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.

U.S. and European allies’ coordination in defense procurement and production “saves money and the R&D costs for the most advanced weapons,” she said, noting while the projected cost for the sixth-generation F-47 is $4.4 billion, but it is a shared NATO expense.

U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin speaks alongside President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on March 21, 2025. Trump announced F-47, a sixth-generation fighter intended to replace the F-22 Raptor, for the Next Generation Air Dominance program. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Specialties and Skills

If NATO ties are severed, the United States will no longer benefit from what retired Navy captain and Epoch Times contributor Carl Schuster calls “amazing capabilities that may prove essential in any conflict.” Those capabilities include aircraft and ship design, special ops, and regional know-how such as mountain operations capabilities and Arctic warfare expertise. 

However, many European military assets are aging, and it was only after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and Trump’s threats to pull the United States from the alliance—that leaders showed urgency to address the deficiencies, Schuster said.

He expressed doubts about Spain—which has refused to let the United States use bases on its mainland to attack Iran—and Turkey. 

“Spain has rejected any idea of its ground and air forces being committed to combat outside Spanish territory,“ he said. ”So their contribution to NATO defense is more statistical than real.”

Turkey has the alliance’s largest ground force, yet its “willingness to contribute to the defense of Greece, Bulgaria, and Eastern Europe” may be questionable, he said.

Middle East Forum Director Gregg Roman also questioned Turkey’s NATO commitment, in a September 2025 column in The Epoch Times, calling for “an urgent compartmentalization assessment” after Turkey made overtures to China and Iran during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. 

“Six months later,” he said in April, “that assessment is non-optional. You know, thinking about everything [NATO] is trying to put together—joint air missile defense planning—with an ally like Turkey that is functionally aligned with Iran and the [SCO] bloc that we’re opposing, they can’t be trusted."

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 03:30

Zelensky Charges Russia With 'Nuclear Terrorism' On 40th Chernobyl Anniversary

President Volodymyr Zelensky led Ukraine in a Sunday ceremony marking the 40th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and used the occasion to call on the international community to take decisive action against what he called ongoing Russian "nuclear terrorism".

There were various candlelight remembrance ceremonies in cities across Ukraine, and in the capital. Later echoing the statement on Telegram, Zelensky alleged the the Chernobyl site's the New Safe Confinement structure - built with support from more than 40 countries - is under direct threat from Moscow’s aggression.

IAEA/X

The 1986 explosion and Chernobyl core meltdown is widely considered to be among the largest man-made disasters in human history. Zelensky has been hyping that another could be around the corner given Moscow's latest actions.

"Russian-Iranian Shahed drones constantly fly over the station, and one of them hit the confinement last year," Zelensky said, warning that another disaster could be imminent. 

"The world must not allow this nuclear terrorism to continue, and the best way is to force Russia to stop its reckless attacks," he then emphasized.

He described that protecting the Chernobyl site serves global interests and that the only way to guarantee safety is to force Russia to "stop its mad attacks."

The warning followed a major aerial assault on Saturday in which Russia launched over 660 missiles and drones at Ukraine, targeting cities and areas nationwide, including strikes on civilian infrastructure in Dnipro and Kharkiv.

Various international organizations say extreme danger for disaster persists, but Rosatom insists it has safety under control:

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, and Moldovan President Maia Sandu joined the commemorative events.

Commenting on damage to the shell, which the environmental group Greenpeace says raises the risk of a radioactive leak, Grossi said that "repairs should start as soon as possible and that leaving the situation as it is now is problematic."

Any repairs to the massive metal outer structure, which may potentially take up to four years, are virtually impossible due to Russia's invasion, according to Greenpeace.

Russia's nuclear agency Rosatom, the successor of the Soviet atomic energy ministry, which managed the facility, said: "To remember Chernobyl means to remember the people who bore the brunt of the disaster, and to take that experience into account in every decision we make today, to prevent a similar catastrophe."

There was a very alarming 2025 incident where an explosive drone hit the protective containment shell of the defunct Chernobyl plant. However, emergency crews were able to make it to the impact site on the immense roof and make repairs. Both the Ukrainian and Russian sides pointed the finger at the other for that attack.

Today marks 40 years since the Chernobyl disaster. On April 26, 1986, at 1:23 AM, a routine safety test spiraled into the worst nuclear disaster in history. pic.twitter.com/ioZFHTTNHh

— World of Engineering (@engineers_feed) April 26, 2026

Given that Chernobyl is a name that has captured popular imagination for decades since the apocalyptic historic disaster left the vicinity basically a radiation death zone, it could present the perfect false flag opportunity for anyone wishing to prolong and escalate the war - and nuclear officials have been keenly aware of this possibility.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 02:45

Orbán Vs Magyar: Did The EU Get Played?

Authored by Arthur Schaper via American Greatness,

Viktor Orbán, the valiant populist, the restorer of the Christian faith in Hungary, the welcome thorn in the side of the EU establishment, and the strong ally of President Trump since his first bid for office, has lost his own re-election bid. I had a feeling it would come to this.

Sixteen years of uninterrupted administration as a strong force for conservative, right-wing nationalist populism have come to an end, at least with Orbán as the head of it.

Sometimes, voters have a strange fatigue when it comes to governments. Fourteen years of a “conservative” UK government ushered in the Labour Party in 2024. However, fatigue doesn’t explain Orbán’s crushing loss.

What set that off?

Corruption charges and the argument that his administration had looked the other way when sex abuse scandals broke out at a local school.

Economics reared its ugly head, as well, since the EU was cutting off its funding. Orbán’s supposed lack of judicial reforms, as well as his uniform check on EU policy, frustrated Brussels.

Orbán faced a crisis election, and inviting US VP JD Vance to campaign on his behalf didn’t help.

Why would Hungarian voters care what a foreign politician thinks? This desperate move only exacerbated how out of touch the Orbán government had become. Critics also saw him as too close to Russian “president” Vladimir Putin and unhelpful in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war. The EU had been waiting for this opportunity: an unpopular Orbán facing electoral collapse.

They were salivating for a post-Orbán Hungary, one that would stop its Christian restorationism, welcome more LGBT promotion, tolerate more spending, and open its borders.

Would the Orbán replacement accomplish their scheme?

His challenger, Péter Magyar, was trained and prepped as an Orbán acolyte.

In 2024, he broke from his party, but not over core policy. Magyar (whose name means “Hungarian,” for what it’s worth) campaigned to end corruption and restore good government in Hungary. He campaigned to the right of Orbán, calling for an end to importing cheap labor into the country. He campaigned on cracking down harder on immigration—illegal and mass—than the incumbent.

His message, if anyone was listening, wasn’t pro-EU. He was still asking the question: “What about us Hungarians?”

Supporters of the cultural restoration Right thought that Orbán was not getting the job done. Was he failing?

April 12, 2026, Magyar’s Tisza Party swept the elections: supermajority status, up to 140 out of 199 seats. Orbán won 56 seats, and another far-right party won the rest.

Sure, EU progressive elites celebrate Orbán’s loss, as did Barack Obama and George Soros. They view the downfall of Orbán as a harbinger for the end of Republican hegemony in Washington later this year.

Yet look again at the results of the Hungarian parliamentary elections. I mentioned three parties that won seats: three right-wing parties. Not one left-wing or centrist element came to power or won seats. A minimum threshold of five percent in the election results is required for a party to place. The left was shut out of the Hungarian Parliament.

The Right Wing won Hungary. Orbán may have lost his premiership, but Orbánism is standing strong.

This election focused on personalities, not principles.

Magyar is just as socially conservative as Orbán. He has already pledged to end the foreign permit workers. He wants to give Hungarians in other countries a chance to come back to their own country and thrive again. That’s about as “Hungary First” as it gets!

Magyar has already stated that he will not support fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership into the EU. Huge move for ending the Russo-Ukrainian war!

He announced a diversification plan for energy. Instead of relying predominantly on Russia, he wants to draw oil from the South and the West, as well. This sounds like real economic freedom for Hungary. National populism is great, but it must face economic realities. Too many right-wing populist governments are shoveling out money to voters for school supplies, raising families, and pensions. Where is the money supposed to come from? More taxes?! From whom?

Right-wing socialism is still . . . socialism, and Orbán had a problem here.

Eventually, the government runs out of others’ money, or inflation bites whatever purchasing power the government intended for the people. Inflation and tariff pressures weighed down Orbán’s reelection chances.

Orbán’s Hungary was still not the perfect social conservative paradise for other reasons. Prostitution is still legal. Abortion is also still legal. While countries need to encourage their native populations to bear children, that vision will collapse in the face of easy sex and no responsibility. Cultural norms need reinforcement, with no tolerance for deviance.

Orbán and his party imposed vaccine passports and health mandates during COVID. How is this good for the working public? Where is the freedom? Too much state-sponsored anything is bad for a country.

Even now, Hungarians cannot own a gun without passing strict government demands. Czechia made self-defense a right, and in Switzerland everyone owns a gun (though it’s registered with the state).

Throughout his tenure, Orbán strengthened ties with China, joining the deceptive Belt and Road initiative. He even allowed Chinese police to operate in his country! American citizens voiced righteous outrage when the local press exposed former New York City mayor Eric Adams for allowing a CCP-run police station in the Big Apple. Yet no one on the Right complained about Orbán allowing CCP Hungary? That’s wrong.

There’s room for improvement, and Magyar has the opportunity to exceed Orbán’s victories while correcting his mistakes.

He is already doubling down on stopping mass migration!

He is committed to putting all Hungarians first, and he is fighting for the rights of ethnic Hungarians in other countries.

Magyar must revive and restore Hungary’s economy. One can hope he will place his country in a better position to profit without dependence and root out undue Chinese influence.

In a media masterstroke, he appeared on state television to discuss his plans for the country. Without missing a beat, he dressed down the reporter interviewing him, castigating the news organization for not allowing him on their program over the last year and a half. He then scolded them for lying about him and his family.

Then came the coup de grace: he announced his government plan to cut their funding and shut them down. Hungary needs honest independent media, he said, not government-funded agitprop that would inspire envy in Joseph Goebbels or North Korea.

He is not hostile to Putin, but he will not engage him aggressively either: sounds a lot like Trump!

He will not participate in the EU migration pact. He is keeping up the border fences, but he has also pledged to find a way for the EU to release the funds that the country needs, too.

He is making inroads with his Slavic neighbors, including the more populist, nationalist leaders in Slovakia and Czechia.

Magyar reminds me of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He isn’t just talking the national populist talk. He is walking the walk, and he is sprinting ahead with major reforms.

Orbán was T-800. Magyar may well be T-1000, and the EU Left is going to find that he will be worse for their globalist, leftist, secularist agenda.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/28/2026 - 02:00