Libya's Largest Oilfield Hit By New Armed Group Blockade

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Crude oil production at Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara, has slumped over the past day after an armed military group closed a valve on the pipeline that carries crude oil from the field to the Zawiya port for exports, in yet another global supply scare amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.

An armed group has closed Valve n.7 on the pipeline, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said, adding that the closure caused a pressure buildup within the crude oil pipeline, leading to a significant reduction in production at the Sharara field.

The field is operated by Akakus Oil Operations, and its production is being shipped through the pipeline to the Zawiya port for exports.

The Libyan state oil firm warned that “the continued closure of Valve No. 7 will inevitably halt production, transportation, and export operations at the Sharara field.”

If the shutdown continues, NOC said it may be compelled to declare force majeure on Sharara output and exports.

“This would directly harm the national economy by reducing state revenues, especially given rising global oil prices, and would expose the oil transport system and its facilities to technical and operational risks,” NOC said.

The Sharara oilfield is estimated to have produced about 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil before the incident.

Following the closure of the valve and the forced reduction of production, crude output at Sharara has now slumped to about 120,000 bpd, according to various estimates.

Libya’s fresh supply scare comes amid squeezed global oil supply as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain uneven and uncertain, and the Yanbu exports out of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast are still offline, following the drone attack on the East-West pipeline on September 10.

Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday, following two days of declines, as the market weighs diplomacy hopes against supply-side risks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:40

2Y Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Slides Despite Highest Yield In Over 3 Years

Ahead of today's auction, with yields sliding early in the day tracking the drop in oil tick-for-tick, some speculated that participants in today's sale of $69BN in 2 year notes would need a modest concession to show enthusiasm for the auction. And even though yields did push wider until the 1pm stop, it appears it was not enough and the auction was notably on the weak side.

Starting at the top, the high yield was 4.787%, a big jump from last month's 4.204% and the highest since June 24, largely thanks to last week's rate hike. To be sure, there is still some room before the 2Y takes out the generation high of 5.06% hit in 2023, but that was cold comfort to auction participants, and the auction tailed by 0.2bps the When Issued of 4.785%.

It wasn't all bad: the bid to cover was 2.627, better than last month's 2.599 and above the recent average of 2.606%. 

The internals were a touch weaker, with Indirects sliding from 66.01% to 57.79%, below the six-auction average of 58.6%. And with Directs rising to 29.0% from 23.1%, just above the recent average of 28.3%, Dealers were left with 13.2% of the auction, the highest Dealer allocation since March.

Overall this was an average auction, and while the internals were not too bad, the small tail suggested that the concession was not enough to inspire too much excitement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:24

Turkish Airlines, Pegasus & AJet Cancel Iran Flights As US Sanctions Bite

Via Middle East Eye

Turkey's national carrier, Turkish Airlines, and budget airlines AJet and Pegasus have cancelled flights to and from Iran from September 21 as US sanctions take effect, a review by Middle East Eye indicates.

The Turkish Airlines and AJet websites have no flights to Iran until March, while Pegasus appears to have removed all flights to the country from its booking system for the foreseeable future.

via AFP

Iran International reported that a Turkish Airlines representative told the channel there was no guarantee flights would resume even after March 2027.

A person familiar with the issue told MEE that US Treasury sanctions on Iran's aviation sector were so severe that Turkish carriers had been forced to suspend their flights.

The person said that while restrictions on US-manufactured aircraft, such as Boeing planes, were understandable, the new sanctions also prevented Airbus aircraft from flying to Iran because they contained American-made components. The carriers had no other choice, the person added.

A Turkish official said that as of Monday, Mahan Air was the only Iranian carrier barred from flying to Turkey, leaving other Iranian airlines free to maintain services between the two countries for now.

Turkey and Iran have maintained a stable relationship and extensive energy and commercial ties despite successive rounds of US sanctions on Tehran.

However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a different approach since US President Donald Trump moved to tighten economic pressure on Iran.

Over the weekend, Turkey revoked the banking license of Iran's Bank Mellat, which had operated in the country for decades.

US sanctions from September 23 could cut Iranian airlines off from global aviation services, threatening flights, fuel access and airport support. https://t.co/U2USXZwjRV pic.twitter.com/2E6e57tF4F

— Gulf News (@gulf_news) September 21, 2026

Turkey's banking regulator also took over Golden Global Investment Bank last week after the US imposed sanctions on the institution for allegedly transferring funds to the Iranian government.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 13:10

Bank Stocks Slide On Resurgent Agentic Fears

It used to be software that was the first casualty of fears of AI disruption. Today, it's the banks.

In a generally flat (and higher for tech stocks) market landscape, banks are conspicuously underperforming today, prompting questions what's the reason for the underperformance.  

According to some traders, the reason is the market's newfound obsession with the latest shiny agentic models that are taking the world by storm.

As Goldman trader Gaelle Jarrousse writes, she is noting the agentic hit on bank and insurance stocks. She lays it out as follows: 

I took a close look at INSTINCT, the ready to use personal agent with simple chat interfaces incl what's app integration. The other one is MUSE in the US. You can ask INSTINCT pretty much everything you want from find a bottle of wine and buy it for you, gym class, restaurants bookings, travel bookings but also find an insurance products and buy it for you, ie this is a one step ahead vs Moneysupermarket for example as INSTINCT does everything for you (5 min process vs a few hours). It is like having a personal assistant. And it will find the best available deal on the market.

She notes that the pushback is do you trust it to give your email address and credit card details to buy things but as time goes by, trust will increase especially with arrival of Muse.

One month ago, the WSJ did a profile on Instinct, calling it the "Latest Viral AI Assistant Rocketing Across Silicon Valley."

A new AI assistant is rocketing across Silicon Valley.

Months after OpenClaw, the viral AI-powered assistant, captured the attention of the technology industry, a company called Instinct appears to be gaining traction among early-adopting techies.

The startup began testing Instinct in private beta in February and quickly generated substantial interest among venture capitalists, who are among its earliest users. Its popularity surged earlier this month, as users began posting about what they saw as a highly capable AI assistant that worked fairly seamlessly, a goal technologists have long considered a holy grail.

Users of Instinct can call or text the AI bot and ask it to respond to emails, manage calendars, book a ride to the airport, arrange a handyman and more. Some users have reported using it to shop for homeowners insurance or order custom merch for a wedding.

“We saw someone buy a house on the platform. A lot of our younger users are using it to find apartment rentals,” Shinn said. “It’s a one-stop shop to do almost everything.”

Going back to Goldman, Jarrousse writes that we saw some early sell off in Telcos on the theme at the end of last week and we are seeing US banks and insurers down on the same theme today.

"I will pay attention to this and i started to get questions yesterday as a potential trigger for some profit taking in insurance esp when looking at the high valuation of Allianz which is a sector proxy."

She shares some additional color below: 

See table below, which is our best estimates based on company data, of Motor and non-motor exposure. The Nordics screen the highest on P&C exposure with Sampo, Tryg and GJEN at the top of the table. Admiral is the one of the pure play on the theme although we can argue that the UK is already very competitive. Amongst the multi liners Generali is at the top given retail P&C exposure followed by Allianz.

Looking at banks, KBC is the biggest P&C with about 20% of insurance revenues. Caixa and Intesa have 3-4% of P&C insurance exposure and I would argue that Italy and Spain are ripe for disruption on other products as well from deposits to asset management given high upfront fees, low betas. Historically the Irish have been weak each time agentic/ deposits competition kicks in and ING can come in the debate too given high L/D, deposits structure, positioning and NII expectations.  Outside of agentic, I am also bearish on Caixa given risk of short term NII disappointment due to deposits repricing vs time lag in asset repricing and a valuation at 2.5x P/TE. So overall I will be cautious on rates sensitive banks here  and Greece and Lloyds/ Natwest are now my only longs. On the Platforms, we have some constructive feedback from Italian trip and Munich conference on FINECO and FLATEX (see below) and I feel less concerned about those from an agentic disruption angle as they are the disruptors to incumbents and cash sitting on those platforms is meant is to be deployed/ invested. 

Goldman's US Financials specialist, Christian Degrasse, also confirmed that while he was seeing plenty of debate & inbounds coming in on sectors where price action is more muted today, a common starting point appears to be interaction with the consumer... with AGENTS are the primary focus...

...largely on businesses with Consumer Touch points as the market prices in risk that agents narrow the ability for companyies to monetize the consumer, and also change the landscape re lead generation & marketing .. this all comes amidst greater excitement around Muse + other agent products - and GS' Consumer Inertia basket (GSXUSWCH) is one of our most actively traded baskets in recent sessions .. 

There was some chatter yesterday on personal insurance (ALL), with focus today broadening out to Personal Insurance peers (PGR, TRV etc), Lead generators (investors have pointed to a couple of small cap insurance lead generators down HSD % - LDD %), Insurance Brokers (GSHD u/p peers 2 days in a row), Wealth Managers & Retail brokers (SCHW LPPA AMP RJF).. Banks are also trading heavy, and feedback here is debated – but focus does remain on banks with business mix geared towards the Consumer (Consumer deposits, wealth management) – which may explain from a high level the relative outperformance in smid banks (which in aggregate have less fee businesses like wealth + greater mix in commercial deposits) vs large banks – though positioning & liquidity may also potentially playing a part in todays volatility.

Payments … entered today where convos were very comfortable around V MA’s positioning on Agentic, and how integrated card was into present agent capabilities … Some questions here around whether the late morning underperformance is either 1) flow of funds driven (ie selling of liquid & owned financials) or 2) any worries around more direct wallet integration following announcement of a PYPL partnership (most feedback thinks #1 so far but welcome to views)

As we move into the afternoon – price action is somewhat indicative of investors in fins broadly pulling back & getting incrementally more defensive (with positioning starting to play a greater role in dispersion) … Signs = CBRE & JLL underperforming peers by ~2% (two popular names in real estate among Financials specialists), 2) large/liquid & defensive names viewed as (per feedback) having good tech (JPM) and/or well positioned on agentic (V MA), or more weighted towards commercial exposure (ie insurance brokers) trading heavy, 3) choppy underperformance across various sectors without direct agent reads (ie exchanges) ... In our view, this is all indicative of 1) the market pricing in a ‘uncertainty discount’ as investors potentially try to get up to speed on implications (risk/reward) on fundamentals, and 2) the market’s cognizant that in past choppy tapes that dealt with AI, it was better to be more patient rather than defending day 1 …

on that note, Mitola highlights volumes are High and we’re seeing 1) an uptick in thematic trading and a willingness to press names where an "agentic economy" presents a potential headwind & 2) a complete buyers strike with no signs of defense across the sector, similar to previous episodes YTD (AI risk, Perpetual Futures, etc) .. 

For now software, where shorts got badly burned after the recent surge, is insulated but as agents make a fresh push for attention - and disintermediation of traditional applications, how long before the pain returns? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:55

Texas Governor Orders Halt To New Data Centers Weeks After Issuing Moratorium

One month after Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a pause on Texas data center approvals pending an audit, overnight the governor doubled down and ordered the state’s environmental watchdog to withhold permits for new data centers until an audit of risks to the power grid is complete.

No authorizations can be given until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or Ercot, completes its review, Abbott said in a statement on Monday.

Gov. Abbott directed the TCEQ to halt any new permits authorizing data center projects until ERCOT completes its audit.

No state agency shall move forward with approvals related to the development of data centers until that information is acquired. pic.twitter.com/MG2s0EKf8x

— Governor Abbott Press Office (@GovAbbottPress) September 21, 2026

This matters a lot for the US data center rollout because as the chart from Apollo below shows, Texas is home of one-fifth of the US’s data center pipeline in terms of IT power capacity, by far the largest of any single state.

In his statement, Abbott said that data center projects must prove they can cover all electrical infrastructure costs, use no water needed by local communities, and result in lower bills for households. The governor also said he would work with state legislators to eliminate any financial incentives for the hubs.

The governor is doubling down on an effective moratorium on new AI hubs amid concern that the vast sites are compromising the state grid and water resources. The proliferation of data centers is set to be a key issue in midterm elections in November, with President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for expansion coming up against mounting public concern, mostly due to soaring power bills.

The permitting halt comes amid growing opposition to data centers across the US. Some 45 projects, worth $68 billion, were blocked or delayed by local pushback between April and June, according to research group Data Center Watch. Trump, meanwhile, has sought to drive the industry forward, warning that a slowdown could offer China an advantage in the AI race.

Texas, the biggest US energy powerhouse, has until now been at the forefront of the AI boom, but it has also struggled to connect data centers to the grid. As we reported at the time, Abbott last month ordered Ercot, along with the Public Utility Commission of Texas, to audit all data centers in the grid queue before issuing further approvals. Regulators subsequently set a mid-December deadline for project reviews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:40

Ed Dowd: The Fed Hiked Interest Rates Into A Supply Shock

Authored by Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative via Substack,

September FOMC Meeting: First Rate Hike Since July 2023

The FOMC did what the front end of the Treasury market (3-month T-bill) had been telegraphing for two weeks prior. On September 16 they voted unanimously to raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent. Kevin Warsh's press conference was short, blunt, and deliberately light on forward guidance. He said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, job gains are keeping up with the workforce, unemployment is little changed around 4.1 percent, and inflation remains elevated. He argued the hike "will support a timelier return" to the 2 percent goal and "This Committee will deliver price stability." He did not submit his own dot. The rest of the Committee's median projection for fed funds now sits at 4.1 percent at year end and stays there through 2027. They mentioned inflation risks are to the upside and that labor risks are roughly balanced. Geopolitical shocks and commodity prices got a mention, but they hiked anyway.

Why Did They Hike?

The day before the meeting I posted on X that starting September 2 the 3-month T-bill yield had moved above our simple Fed-funds-rate/T-bill model. Historically the Fed follows the market more than the market follows the Fed. The signal pointed to a minimum 25 basis-point move, with 50 not being out of the question. Politics could have intervened, after all this is right before the midterms, but the Committee chose to follow the tape. They chose 25 but the T-bill market yield of 4.09 said 50 would have been the cleaner signal. The market two weeks before the decision, in my opinion, was starting to discount the energy and commodity shock as something more durable than a temporary disruption. The war is not wrapping up on a convenient political calendar. The Iranians have little incentive to resolve it before November. A war sold as a two-week excursion will be 8 months old by the beginning of November. When a supply shock starts looking structural, the front end prices a higher terminal rate even if the underlying demand picture is deteriorating. That is exactly what happened. Essentially the market priced in a very high probability that there is almost no chance of a deal until after November with energy prices remaining higher and going up.

Was Hiking The Right Move?

Hiking into a supply shock is rarely the right medicine. Rate policy cannot produce more oil or more shipping capacity. It can only crush demand. The Committee knows this...Warsh even said they cannot control individual relative prices. They hiked anyway because they decided they were not yet confident that underlying inflation was moving toward 2 percent "clearly and at sufficient speed." Fair enough as a credibility statement. The problem is the data they are using to measure the other side of the mandate.

Payroll numbers have been inaccurate for years. We have been documenting this. BLS initial prints systematically overstated job growth; the QCEW and subsequent revisions have been carving hundreds of thousands of phantom jobs out of the record. The composition of the remaining "gains" is even more telling. Healthcare has been doing the heavy lifting while manufacturing, information, finance, professional services, and retail have been losing ground. That is not a robust, broad-based labor market. That is an economy being papered over by one sector and by earlier distortions that are now fading.

Housing is already rolling over. Starts and permits plunged again in August. Homebuilder confidence is near COVID lows. Months of supply are sitting near the 2006 peak. Real house prices are declining, led by multi-family. The border tightening removed a floor that illegal inflows had put under rents and home prices. Housing is a huge chunk of CPI and of household balance sheets. It does not look like a strong demand story. Layer on the AI complex: AI and AI-adjacent names are now 40-45 percent of S&P market cap, with massive public and private debt issuance behind the buildout. Institutional investors cannot diversify away from it. Private credit is growing its defaults in the dark and seeing outflows. Enterprise buyers are starting to ask about ROI. The MSM is starting to notice all the risks. Finally China is another risk sitting in plain sight with construction output collapsing, decades of housing supply, fixed-asset investment falling, and no clean export valve left. That does not stay contained.

The Table Is Set

So we now have a Committee that just removed a dose of accommodation into a supply-driven inflation impulse while the demand side of the economy is already softer than the headline payrolls suggest. Housing is weak. The AI trade is crowded and levered. China is an acute problem. That combination has a name: policy error. Not because they raised 25 instead of 50 but because they are treating a supply shock as if it were a classic overheating demand problem and they are doing it with lagging, revised, and compositionally misleading labor data. The market has provided false signals in a rate cutting cycle before and in my opinion the Fed should have looked through the supply shock and past the blatant unwillingness of the Iranians to come to the table before the midterms. They will likely hike again another 25 bp but holding rates steady and waiting would have been more prudent.

The cycle has not changed. Easy-money periods juice activity...sometimes with genuine investment and sometimes with fraud. Tightening and then the eventual easing cycle is when the previous juice gets exposed. We have seen the movie. The current episode has its own flavor: government deficit spending, labor-force distortions, an unprecedented illegal alien sugar high, speculative AI capex boom, an opaque private credit shadow banking complex and now a geopolitical supply shock layered on top. The Fed is late, as usual. Once they reverse course and start cutting again it will be into an accelerating slowdown. It will be too late as anything they do from here will take 12-18 months to hit the real economy. The next year is going to be tumultuous.

Ultimately rates are coming down, not because Warsh suddenly turns dovish, but rather because the real economy is already weaker than the official series admit and the lagged effects of tighter policy will show up in employment, housing, and credit. When that happens the Committee will discover, yet again, that they were fighting the last war with the wrong map.

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:20

All 10 ActBlue Witnesses Take The Fifth As GOP Says Probe Is "Far From Over"

All ten ActBlue employees and board members deposed by House investigators have invoked the Fifth Amendment rather than answer questions about the Democratic Party's dominant fundraising platform. Five of the ten are board members, all deposed in the past five weeks, and the three committees running the probe say they are not done. Their third report, released last week, alleged ActBlue accepted a substantial volume of foreign and fraudulent donations with minimal scrutiny.

ActBlue CEO Regina Wallace-Jones prepares to testify before the House Administration Committee in June. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)

The investigation's third report, released last week, alleged ActBlue accepted a substantial volume of foreign and fraudulent donations with minimal scrutiny.

It builds on the first report, released in April 2025, which found that ActBlue skipped standard verification steps such as CVV checks, identified at least 22 significant fraud campaigns, and documented 237 prepaid-card donations from foreign IP addresses in a single month before the 2024 election.

Investigators found that skipping those checks opened the door to smurfing, the practice of dressing up one illegal mega-donation as a parade of small contributions filed under real people's names. ActBlue's much-touted "passport verification" process appears to have checked nothing against any government database. Fraud analysts inside the company faced pressure to wave through foreign-flagged donations, in one case clearing a donor on the strength of a LinkedIn profile.

House Oversight, House Administration, and House Judiciary are still working the case now, and none of them show signs of backing off. "Whether it's allowing fraudsters to steal taxpayer dollars or accepting illegal foreign donations through ActBlue, Democrats have proven themselves to be the party of fraud," Oversight Chairman Rep. James Comer told Fox News Digital. "Our investigation into ActBlue is far from over. We expect more documents and testimony in the weeks ahead."

Republicans have complained about ActBlue's verification standards for years, and the company insists it has tightened those safeguards since the investigation began. That claim falls apart against the committees' own findings. The report says ActBlue took "a more lenient approach" to fraud prevention in 2024, after Steil first questioned its practices in October 2023, and the internal records released last week show employees approving donations despite unresolved red flags about the money's origins.

ActBlue still denies wrongdoing and has given no indication it plans to return any flagged contribution.

"ActBlue's own admissions raise serious questions about its fraud prevention practices, including a so-called passport verification process that did not actually verify or check entries against any government database," Committee on House Administration Chairman Rep. Bryan Steil told Fox News Digital on Friday. "All options are on the table to ensure we get to the bottom of what is going on at ActBlue."

A spokesperson for Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan confirmed to Fox News Digital that the panel "will continue aggressive oversight of ActBlue, including additional depositions."

Co-founder Matt DeBergalis was among the ten who took the Fifth, and CEO Regina Wallace-Jones did the same during a public hearing. In a letter to Steil cited by the report, she claimed donors with non-U.S. addresses must submit a passport number to get verified. The GOP report picked that claim apart, noting the system only confirms the number contains the right count of characters, not that it belongs to an actual passport.

In one internal ActBlue memo, a donation with a Hong Kong IP address was described as a "great accept," reasoning that none of the donor's other signals raised eyebrows. Another argued a previously denied contribution should have gone through because the name, email, and billing address all lined up, even though it was a foreign contribution. A supervisor waved through a donation that had set off a lot of alarms because the donor deserved the benefit of the doubt. In one case involving a Missouri billing address with every sign pointing to Canada, an analyst approved the donation because "Twitter seems to confirm that they are a real person."

Now the National Republican Congressional Committee wants House Democrats to cut ties with ActBlue. "House Democrats cannot claim ignorance while continuing to rely on a fundraising platform facing serious allegations," NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said. "The National Republican Congressional Committee officially calls on every House Democrat to cut ties with ActBlue and return any illegal contributions funneled to their campaigns through the platform." Asked whether it would return any donations, ActBlue pointed back to its own statement instead of answering the question.

"There's nothing to see here," ActBlue said, arguing a third-party forensic analysis had undercut a central GOP claim and accusing Republicans of "orchestrating another political stunt before rushing out of town weeks early to go campaign." That review of ActBlue's 2023 data found 99.99% of contribution dollars came from donors who gave a U.S. address or a passport number, according to the company's release, though it did not test whether either was genuine. The company framed the entire affair as an effort "to silence organizations they believe threaten their agenda."

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 12:00

Socialist Candidate Says Stealing From Taxpayers Makes Her "More Qualified" For Office

It sounds crazy, but this kind of scenario is absolutely the norm for Democratic Socialist candidates:  Being convicted of blatant criminal embezzlement is a badge of honor, not a disqualifying mark on their record.  The complete inversion of moral standards is unsettling and it reinforces the need to prevent far-left activists from entering positions of local government.

Denver mayoral candidate, Shontel Lewis, stole thousands of dollars in EBT funds while working in the state food-stamp office in 2008.  She says that the experience actually makes her "more qualified" for the job of mayor, ostensibly because this makes her more attuned to the needs of "struggling Denver citizens".  

But maybe struggling Denver citizens should not be the deciding factor in who runs the city?  Perhaps electing a thief to office will make their lives worse, not better.

Investigators identified seven benefit accounts Lewis accessed over five months while working at the state food-stamp office. She reissued EBT cards from other people’s accounts and gave the funds to her roommate (and used some herself). She originally faced felony charges, pleaded guilty to misdemeanor theft, served 18 months of probation, and later said she paid restitution in full.    

Colorado's constitution restricts anyone convicted of "embezzlement of public moneys, bribery, perjury, solicitation of bribery, or subornation of perjury” from holding “any office of trust or profit in the state.”  However, Lewis has been snaking past these rules for years.  Similar concerns were raised when she ran for the Regional Transportation District board in 2018.  

At that time she lawyered up and successfully obtained a position on the board from 2019 to 2022.  Keep in mind, Colorado is a deep blue state run by progressive fanatics, and this was the era of DEI and BLM supremacy.  Lewis has continually blamed her circumstances for the theft, claiming she was spurred on by "trauma".

“I believe my eligibility should be based on the voters, not on a series of poor decisions I made over a decade ago at a time of trauma in my life,” she said in a statement to The Colorado Sun. 

Lewis is now a member of the City Council.

This is a typical strategy for leftists, apologizing for a crime while not truly taking accountability and blaming circumstances.  Millions of people go through "trauma" and hardship everyday, and they don't steal.  The fact that the thefts occurred while Lewis was working in a state office makes her continued presence in government all the more concerning.  She used her trusted position to gain access more easily. 

Her theft record and socialist politics also bring up the question of how she will handle crime in Denver? 

Lewis talked in circles when asked whether she would defund the police to pay for pricey proposals like youth programming and city-owned affordable housing. She criticized the cuts Denver mayor Mike Johnston made to a wide range of services to bridge a $200 million deficit in the latest budget, cuts she said could have come from the Denver Police Department (DPD). 

"Yes, cuts did need to be made, but I think there's an opportunity for us to always prioritize the people when we're talking about our budgets....We missed an opportunity to go back to those that were represented with DPD, with our Department of Safety, where we didn't actually see any cuts coming from the department."

Typically, far-left politicians refuse to enforce prosecution standards and tend to impede law enforcement operations at every turn.  In some cases, these city leaders have even been caught manipulating stats in order to hide rising crime.  They don't have to commit crime themselves; all they have to do is make crime easier for other miscreants. 

It's not surprising that many socialist candidates tend to come from the national underbelly - DSA and their Democrat allies openly celebrate criminality as a lifestyle choice, and view morality as purely relative.        

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 11:20

Putin Urges Immediate Yemen Ceasefire In Call With Saudi Crown Prince

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a Monday telephone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (who is also the prime minister) - wherein the two leaders focused on broad bilateral issues.

Referring to the "Saudi National Day", a TASS readout indicates "The Russian leader congratulated the Saudi Crown Prince on the upcoming national holiday - the day marking the founding of Saudi Arabia - noting that a century ago, the Soviet Union was the first foreign nation to recognize the Saudi Kingdom."

Aside from the usual boilerplate expressing satisfaction on the bilateral relationship on multiple fronts, the two addressed the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, where the Iran conflict has spilled over into Yemen this month.

Per the readout, MbS and Putin agreed that that there is "no alternative to political and diplomatic efforts aimed at normalizing the current crisis, while duly taking into account the interests of all parties."

Putin urged every effort to achieve a ceasefire, and to avoid escalation:

"In light of the deteriorating military-political situation in Yemen, the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the creation of conditions for launching a constructive intra-Yemeni dialogue under UN auspices was reaffirmed. At the same time, the importance of ensuring the safe and unhindered passage of vessels through international waterways in the region - including the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb Strait and Strait of Hormuz - was emphasized," the Kremlin said.

Moscow and Riyadh agreed continue communication at various levels, and work on stability in the region.

While Russia is not involved in the Yemen conflict, it does provide military supplies and conducts trade with Tehran, and so may have some leverage in terms of pushing the Islamic Republic to get the Shia Houthis to the peace table.

The Yemen conflict could yet spiral into something more serious, and could draw in especially the Pakistanis after Riyadh and Islamabad inked the Mecca Defense Pact this summer.

Earlier this month: Saudi Arabia is learning a lesson that money and American weapons could never erase: you cannot buy your way out of geography.

This week, the Houthis expressed openness to a comprehensive ceasefire deal, but have also emphasized that the Saudi siege of Houthi-controlled areas must halt for this to be a possibility. The Yemen war and threat to Saudi oil infrastructure has only served to increase Iran's leverage over global energy, amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis and standoff with US forces.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 10:45

"Repeated And Persistent Supply-Side Shocks" Are Here To Stay

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee just warned the FOMC can’t ignore repeated and persistent supply-side shocks and must respond in a way that will cause economic hardship. However, repeated and persistent supply-side shocks are now the norm, not short-lived, aberrant events.

Putin won the Russian election with a supermajority: fears are escalation is imminent via sabotage in Europe, mobilization, or provocations to NATO. The FT notes a Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks, as diplomats blamed France for an EU deal to renew 3,000 Russia sanctions listings lapsing. Trump pressed Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries, stressing it’s about “diesel, diesel, diesel.” CIA boss Ratcliffe also met with him. Trump additionally announced a “massive” Belarus potash deal to undercut trade with Canada, yet will open two new military bases in Greenland, which Russia will see as a provocation. 

Iran, on high alert, threatened to use new weapons vs. new targets if the US escalates. The US says anyone servicing Iranian airlines will be cut off from the dollar system from tomorrow. Gulf states are urging a reset with Iran yet are elsewhere reported to be planning joint military action with the US and Israel. The Houthis are pushing for control of Yemen’s highlands as Trump is said to have called off strikes, likely to keep pressure on the Saudis to join a bigger push. The UK is offering to help the Saudis via air-to-air refuelling, which isn’t much direct help even if it places the UK on the Houthis hit list: PM Burnham has made longer public statements on how to refuel via a cup of tea than on this issue. The EU’s Kallas and Italy urged the EU to reinforce its Red Sea Aspides naval force, as nearby seven Ethiopian rebel groups formed a new anti-government alliance, worsening the geopolitical picture further. 

Despite two more tankers being hit, oil is flowing from Hormuz, expensively, and refined products aren’t, making them even more expensive. With VLCC oil tanker daily rates top $1.2m vs. a normal $40,000 - $100,000 and order books are constrained by global shipyard capacity, commodity trader Trafigura just launched a new ocean carrier of its own, Volare Shipping. The US is proposing a $5bn kickstart fund to rebuild Gulf energy sites, but the war must be won first; and global oil and gas discoveries have just hit a 40-year low on investment cutbacks. 

Germany announced limited fuel price caps and fuel-tax suspensions, France is pushing for similar emergency action on energy prices, and US Republicans are calling to halt diesel exports. The latter wouldn’t be a lasting solution to higher US prices if markets operate freely in an integrated global system, but a hypothetical invocation of the Defence Production Act to ‘manage’ refineries and a geopolitical closed-loop trading bloc could work such that some have much lower energy prices, others much higher ones.

At which point, consider if we are seeing global bifurcation into blocs, why should the energy sector operate as a ‘one world’ system? Why wouldn’t it be bifurcated to benefit those with energy vs. those without? “Because markets?” Why? “Because war?” Those without energy surrender, not fight. Also note if one holds the Americas’ and Middle East’s oil production and refining, one effectively controls oil; and if one holds the Americas’ and the Middle East’s are on fire, then in *relative* terms, the Americas are winners… and many others are the losers.

Meanwhile, the US coast guard is watching a Chinese marine presence off Alaska, as the US, Japan and South Korea launched joint economic-security talks before the Trump-Xi summit. 

Ahead of it, Chinese rare-earth shipments have dropped 20% month-on-month, showing Chinese leverage. Yet USTR Greer suggested the US could support a bilateral trade truce extension of just 3-6 months rather than the end-of-Trump term China wants. That suggests the US has cards to play ahead. Vietnam is also saying a US trade deal is close and denied it is a transhipment hub for Chinese goods. Watch that space closely.

Despite the headlines, perhaps pay less attention to Canada extending an easy-to-say-hard-to-deliver ‘unique relationship’ offer from the EU to the UK,… and to Brazil and Kenya. That’s likely to prove emotionally appealing, realpolitik-naïve middle-power gobbledy-‘BEUKCUK’. Indeed, Mexico is close to agreeing to buy more US goods and fewer from other countries under a new USMCA. That weakens Canada’s negotiating position along with the US-Greenland security deal and the one for Belarussian potash.  

Against that bifurcating backdrop, the ECB rolled out a digital euro in wholesale financial markets via its new Pontes (“bridge”) scheme for banks. This new pipe in Eurozone financial plumbing allows tokenised asset transactions to settle using money issued by the ECB, where private distributed ledger technology platforms can now access the Eurosystem's TARGET services. What is that a bridge towards and what’s the real Pontes? We shall see.

By contrast, after Congress stalled the CLARITY Act, which would have accelerated the global roll-out of US dollar stablecoins, a Strategic Working Office for Rapid Deployment (SWORD) has opened at the International Development Finance Corporation tasked with “high-impact investments that advance US foreign policy, development, and national security priorities.” SWORD might use drops of USD stablecoins to build bridges, or demolish them, in key geopolitical and geoeconomic areas… like the energy sector(?)

So, back to central banks: is it better to make a bad situation worse with higher rates, or watch inflation move further above target? What is a 25bp hike going to do about a VLCC daily rate up 30-40X normal besides impact a housing or corporate loan holder already dealing with the sharp end of that daily rate increase? There is no ‘good’ choice, only bad ones – and in many senses.

Politically, we just saw another German election result where the far-right and far-left trounced the centre, and both populists are on the ascendancy more widely. Chancellor Merz has pledged a “reset” but admitted German conservatives don’t have the “answers.” But who does? The centre was built for a paradigm that arguably no longer exists. More rate hikes, or inflation, into that mix and then what? Australian consumers’ mood is sinking as RBA rates are rising, with another hike whispered for next week as Governor Bullock spoke of a “wild ride” and “limiting indirect effects of supply shocks” today - and the populist One Nation Party’s electoral fortunes are rising with it. 

The key point is if the wars vs. Russia and/or Iran were over, energy prices would be lower, so would inflation, and rates could then sustainably follow. Until that happens, it’s hard to make that case. If so, how could the wars end? By the West losing - but the consequences are unacceptable to it. By Russia and Iran losing - but the consequences are even more unacceptable to them. That implies Goolsbee’s “repeated and persistent supply-side shocks” are here to stay, or at least that things will get much worse before they get better.

Then recall central banks were created specifically to finance governments fighting wars. That’s what the Bank of England was set up to do vs. Napoleon, for example. That’s what they also did in WW1 and WW2, and in the US case right up until the Korean War. 

The key question is perhaps how long until a central bank recalls another way to deal with persistent geopolitical supply-side shocks is to help its government achieve ‘resilience’ via regaining physical control of supply chains. That’s what most Developed Markets are supposed to have the power to do when Emerging Markets do not. Such action would be a bridge to a huge structural shift; so would a lack of such action “because markets” or due to a lack of power.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 10:30

Alibaba Unveils China's Most Powerful AI Chip In $53 Billion Gambit

Alibaba Group has unveiled the Zhenwu V900, an AI accelerator it calls China's most powerful, marking a major escalation in its effort to challenge Nvidia and build a vertically integrated artificial-intelligence stack stretching from chips and networking to models and hyperscale data centers.

Alibaba booth at the 3rd China International Supply Chain Expo at the China International Exhibition Center in Beijing, Friday, July 18, 2025 (Mahesh Kumar / AP)

Unveiled by CEO Eddie Wu at Alibaba's Apsara Conference, the new processor from the company's T-Head semiconductor division reportedly delivers three times the performance of the Zhenwu M890 introduced just four months ago. The V900 carries 216 GB of memory, 1,200 GB per second of inter-chip bandwidth and native support for low-precision formats including FP8 and FP4, allowing it to handle both model training and inference, according to Alibaba. (independent benchmarks have not yet been published).

The V900 is scheduled to enter mass production and commercial release in the first quarter of 2027 - an acceleration from Alibaba's previous roadmap which had placed its next-generation accelerator in the latter part of next year. 

The company says its upgraded supernode architecture can support clusters containing as many as 500,000 cards. 

The hardware is part of a much larger full-stack strategy for Alibaba, which also says that their Qwen 4 AI model is currently in training, while its planned Qwen 4.5 and Qwen 5 generations are projected to scale to between 5 trillion and 10 trillion parameters. Its current flagship Qwen3.8-Max contains about 2.4 trillion parameters.

A 20-Gigawatt Bet

To support their goals, Alibaba obviously needs to undergo an enormous expansion of physical infrastructure.

Wu said Alibaba Cloud intends to operate more than 20 gigawatts of global data-center capacity by 2032. The company has not disclosed its current comparable base or a detailed site-by-site construction schedule, and the 20 GW figure measures electrical data-center capacity rather than a standardized quantity of AI compute.

Either way, these plans put Alibaba squarely inside the global hyperscaler infrastructure arms race - yet can they technically pull it off? As we recently noted, many of the world's announced AI projects face constraints that have little to do with model architecture: sufficient electricity, water, chips, networking gear, permitting, construction capacity and the ability to connect everything on schedule.

Alibaba's original commitment called for more than RMB 380 billion, or roughly $53 billion, of investment in AI and cloud infrastructure over three years - with chairman Joe Tsai reiterating that commitment in June. The company said in May that spending could ultimately exceed the original RMB 380 billion plan as AI demand accelerated. They then raised another HK$80 billion, approximately $10.2 billion, in an August share placement. According to Alibaba's SEC filing, roughly 60% of the net proceeds will expand global computing infrastructure, while approximately 40% will fund hyperscale AI data centers and upgrades to storage, databases and high-performance networking.

Citigroup analysts have reportedly estimated that infrastructure on the scale envisioned by Alibaba could eventually support roughly $160 billion in external cloud revenue. 

Alibaba's own stated target is substantial enough: CEO Eddie Wu has said the company expects to surpass $100 billion in annual combined cloud and AI external revenue within five years.

The Spending Is Already Showing Up

The near-term cost, for Alibaba anyway, is huge. They spent RMB67.7 billion, or almost $10 billion, on capital expenditures during the June quarter alone, a 75% increase from a year earlier. Free cash flow swung to an outflow of RMB44.7 billion, or about $6.6 billion, which Alibaba said was mainly attributable to increased cloud-infrastructure expenditure.

Headline net income fell 75% year over year to RMB10.4 billion, or about $1.5 billion. But attributing that entire decline to the AI buildout would be misleading. Alibaba said lower operating income was compounded by smaller gains from investment disposals and mark-to-market changes in its equity portfolio. On a non-GAAP basis, net income fell a less dramatic 38%, with technology investment cited as the primary drag.

The cloud business, however, is growing quickly. Alibaba's AI Cloud and Compute Services generated $7.14 billion in June-quarter revenue, up 45% year over year. AI-related product revenue alone reached $1.824 billion for the quarter, its twelfth consecutive quarter of triple-digit year-over-year growth.

On an annualized basis, Alibaba says AI-related product revenue had reached approximately $7.3 billion and is expected to approach $10 billion in the September quarter.

Management has also argued that the economics of the infrastructure spending are more attractive than the headline capex suggests. On its August earnings call, Alibaba said that at current gross margins it expects to recoup AI-related capex in roughly three years, potentially shortening the payback period to about 2.5 years as margins rise.

The silicon business has progressed rapidly as well. T-Head had shipped more than 560,000 Zhenwu chips by the spring, with more than 400 external customers across 20 industries. Alibaba now says the Zhenwu family is serving more than 650 customers spanning automobiles, finance, large language models, embodied intelligence, energy and manufacturing.

The Real Bottleneck

The greatest uncertainty may not be whether Alibaba can design competitive accelerators, but whether China can manufacture enough advanced silicon to support its ambitions.

As we recently noted, U.S. restrictions have limited Chinese access both to Nvidia's most advanced AI processors and to foreign foundry capacity used to manufacture cutting-edge Chinese designs. Those constraints have given Alibaba, Huawei and other domestic suppliers a powerful incentive to develop replacements.

Alibaba has not publicly identified the V900's foundry or manufacturing node, so it would be premature to state that SMIC will manufacture the processor. But the broader domestic supply chain remains constrained.

As we recently noted, SMIC has been able to manufacture 7-nanometer-class chips using sophisticated multi-patterning on deep-ultraviolet lithography systems, but China's advanced semiconductor industry still depends heavily on foreign equipment. Chinese chipmakers have accumulated years of ASML machinery while Huawei and domestic equipment suppliers race to build replacements, yet critical components including projection optics and high-power light sources remain difficult bottlenecks.

That means the challenge facing Alibaba extends well below the GPU architecture itself. Frontier-scale AI requires advanced logic, high-bandwidth memory, packaging, high-speed networking, optical components, cooling systems and enormous quantities of reliable electricity. Weakness anywhere in that chain can become the limiting factor.

And this is not merely a Chinese problem. As we recently noted, the global AI buildout is increasingly colliding with shortages of power, water, chips, fiber, construction resources and regulatory approvals. Twenty gigawatts on a presentation slide and 20 gigawatts of fully energized, chip-filled, revenue-producing data centers are two very different things.

GEOPOLITICS!

The timing of Alibaba's announcement is difficult to separate from the broader U.S.-China technology rivalry.

The V900 was unveiled just days before President Donald Trump is expected to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. As we recently noted, preparatory talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng produced plans for a new U.S.-China AI dialogue and a proposed notification mechanism for serious AI incidents. Advanced AI-chip export restrictions, however, were not part of that particular discussion.

Washington is attempting to limit China's access to the most advanced semiconductor technology while Chinese companies are simultaneously developing indigenous chips, deploying cheaper models and building increasingly large domestic compute systems.

Alibaba's V900 is therefore more than another accelerator launch. It is one component of an attempt to vertically integrate the entire AI stack: proprietary processors, networking silicon, storage controllers, massive clusters, Qwen foundation models, agent platforms and ultimately tens of gigawatts of cloud infrastructure.

China can manufacture enough advanced silicon, memory and networking equipment, secure enough power, and build enough data-center infrastructure to turn the roadmap into operating compute?

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 10:15

Futures Flat As Oil, Yields Drop Ahead Of Trump UN Address

Futures are flat, having recoverd  a modest drop after the European open, following yesterday’s strong, positive performance despite energy prices and yields being lower for a second consecutive day. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green after an advance in tech giants and chipmakers drove the index to a one-month high. In premarket trading, semis are down ~60bp after a blistering 5-day run that added 11.2%. Memory names are weaker as Mag7 and Software remain bid. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3% as the company is rolling out what it calls China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia Corp. Brent crude erased gains of as much as 2% to fall toward $98 a barrel. The reversal came after Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that Iran has proposed to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US blockade is lifted. While Iran has since denied this report, a separate report that Saudis may restart the East-West pipeline helped sentiment. Treasury yields turned lower, with the 10-year rate down two basis points to 4.93%. The dollar barely budged while the entire commodity complex is lower, though Base Metals are a bid. These moves likely reflect growing optimism around a diplomatic solution in the Middle East and improved US / China relations, which combined will support AI and lower energy prices, and potentially lower tariff rates. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP’s weekly number, regional Fed activity indicators, and another Fedspeaker. Looking ahead, highlights include UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple +0.2%, Meta -0.7%, Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia -0.2%, Tesla +0.7%

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3% as the company is rolling out what it calls China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia Corp.
• GameStop (GME) rises 4% after CEO Ryan Cohen disclosed a $26.4 million stock purchase in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
• Grab (GRAB) rises 6% after Chief Executive Officer Anthony Ping Yeow Tan disclosed a $29.9 million stock purchase in a filing with the SEC.
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX) falls 6% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released new preliminary medicare payment rates for lab services.
• Vicor (VICR) jumps 9% after the power equipment company raised its third-quarter revenue growth guidance, citing royalties from non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery.
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) soars 32% after announcing positive topline results from a study of dosing regimens for maintaining weight loss.

In other corporate news, Roche’s experimental obesity shot enicepatide reduced body weight by 15.5% in trial, potentially ramping up competition with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. On Holding plans to increase constant currency sales at a rate in the high teens through 2029 and ratchet up profitability, as the Swiss brand introduces new products for golf and soccer in its effort to take on Adidas and Nike.
Federal prosecutors are investigating whether Binance, the operator of the world’s biggest crypto exchange, violated US sanctions on Iran by not stopping certain trading on its platform. The newly merged Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. will be headquartered in Los Angeles, CEO David Ellison said.

Stocks are set to for a breather after the strongest session since early August. Positive geopolitical developments and a new lease of life for the AI trade made Monday an easy win, but questions remain on both fronts. Crude prices reversed earlier gains after Kyodo reported, citing an Iranian official, that Iran has suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stops military operations related to Hormuz. Alongside the Kyodo report were constructive comments by the IRGC, stating that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia was testing a restart of its East-West pipeline, according to a person familia with the matter, offering another potential boost to supply. Brent has returned below USD 94/bbl on the above headlines. A constructive risk tone followed, with equity futures and fixed income rising while the USD weakened.

President Donald Trump is set to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York later Tuesday, with traders watching for a possible meeting with his Iranian counterpart that could prove pivotal.

AI-linked stocks were mixed after a positive reception for Meta Platforms Inc.’s new AI agent fueled broad gains in the previous session. Microsoft Corp. rose 0.9% in premarket trading to lead gains among the Magnificent Seven. An exchange-traded fund tracking chipmakers was slightly lower.

Monday’s price action showed that AI FOMO is still a big driving force in the market. One indication appears in call to put skew on a 10% move in SPX over the next month. That skew metric is at its highest since late August, hovering just below its year-to-date high.

The sentiment is across asset classes, with SoftBank said to have drawn more than $20 billion of preliminary demand for its junk bond deal to help fund investments in OpenAI.

The swings in sentiment after Monday’s rally highlighted how confidence in the AI trade remains vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. Bond yields remain near their highest levels in years despite easing this week, as traders continue to price in imminent interest-rate hikes and persistent fiscal shortfalls.

“I don’t see anyone shorting tech and AI before the third-quarter earnings season begins,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “There’s also some hope that Trump will find a way to lower oil prices before the midterms. It makes sense that the market consolidates slightly.”

The strong early uptake of Meta’s Muse AI agent revived hopes of agentic AI coming to the mainstream consumer market, with more insights expected during Zuckerberg’s keynote speech at Meta Connect tomorrow night. Elsewhere in AI, Alibaba rolled out what it called China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia and underpin a massive expansion of data center capacity in coming years. Tencent launched its latest image-generation model. Headlines may also come from Amazon Accelerate over the next few days.

Still, angst about the data center buildout continues, with Texas Governor Greg Abbott halting all permits sought by data centers until an audit of risks to the grid is complete. Texas is home of one-fifth of the US’s data center pipeline in terms of IT power capacity, by far the largest of any single state.

Global investors are also gearing up for the summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week. Officials from the two sides wrapped up their second day of talks in New York on Monday as they sought to advance negotiations ahead of Xi’s visit to the US. For markets, the big question is what happens when the yearlong trade truce expires in November, noted Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG. While the tone between the two sides remains positive, they have yet to reach an agreement.

“Given increasing geopolitical uncertainty worldwide, keeping the world’s two dominant economies on speaking terms has rarely mattered more,” said Roman Ziruk, lead FX strategist at Ebury.

In trade, Vietnamese President To Lam said his nation is “very close” to a deal with the US as he pledged to buy more high-tech goods to narrow the trade gap. Canada’s trade minister said talks with India are “moving along really well” as his country looks for new markets amid a tariff war with the US. Meanwhile, China’s expansion in the rare-earth supply chain could help provide Xi leverage over the US during their talks.

The Stoxx 600 briefly touched a session high too and is up by around 0.2%, rising on Tuesday as oil drops, with tech shares also fueled by optimism around artificial intelligence developments. Retail and consumer shares are the best performers. Energy and insurance fall.
Stoxx 600 gains 0.2% to 643.25 with 200 members down, 390 up and 10 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

• Bureau Veritas rises as much as 2.1% after saying it expects double-digit revenue growth over 2027-2028 and aims to deliver €1 billion from AI-driven markets by the end of the decade.
• Kingfisher shares rise as much as 11% after the B&Q and Screwfix owner posted a first-half earnings beat and lifted its full-year profit guidance beyond analyst expectations.
• Vusion shares rise as much as 11% after the French maker of electronic labels for retail stores reported first half results that included an almost 50% increase in adjusted Ebitda.
• Verbund gains as much as 5.1%, while ERG is up as much as 2.9%, after Bank of America upgraded both to neutral from underperform.
• Smiths Group gains as much as 6.4% with analysts generally positive on the UK manufacturing equipment firm’s performance in 2026, and its outlook for 2027.
• Buzzi shares fall as much as 5%, to the lowest since January 2025, as UBS downgrades the Italian construction materials firm to sell from neutral, warning that import pressure and CO2 allowance costs could drive sharp earnings downgrades.
• UBS shares fall as much as 4.1% after CEO Sergio Ermotti says year-on-year transactions in wealth management and banking fee pool are likely down in 3Q.
• Ericsson slips as much as 4.3% after Morgan Stanley downgrades the Swedish mobile networks and technology group to underweight from equal-weight, saying margins are “inflecting to the downside.”
• Industrie De Nora tumbles as much as 14% after investor Snam offloaded a chunk of shares at a hefty discount to the last close. The stock has slipped below the offer price.

Asian stocks advanced for a fifth day, as technology sector gained amid optimism over Meta Platform Inc.’s new personal agent. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index jumped as much as 1.5% before paring about half of those gains. Taiwan’s Taiex climbed to a record before erasing most of the advance. Korea’s Kospi closed 0.2% higher, while Japan remained shut for a holiday. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fluctuated, and is now flat. The yen wiped out its decline, with USDJPY briefly slipping below 157. Tencent shares jumped 5%, as positive feedback on Meta’s new personal agent unleashed investor optimism that the Chinese social media giant may unlock similar AI‑driven optionality through its WeChat ecosystem. Alibaba gained 2% after it rolled out an AI chip and announced plans to expand data center capacity over the coming years. 

In rates, treasuries hold modest gains after erasing losses during European morning following a sharp drop in oil prices. US yields are about 2bp-3bp richer across the curve led by the belly, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year, near session lows around 4.93%, keeps pace with German counterpart and trails UK by about 1bp. European bond yields shifted direction on the slide for crude, with 10-year yields down by about a basis point in the US, Europe and the US, having been pushing higher through the first portion of the session. 2-year note auction at 1 p.m. has WI yield near 4.75%, about 55bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.4bp; $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year note auctions follow over next two days. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few offerings so far. Nine were priced Monday totaling around $10 billion, with issuer paying about 3bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.4 times covered. US session includes $69 billion 2-year note auction, the first of this week’s three coupon sales, with additional supply pressure possible from Sysco Corp. jumbo multi-currency bond offering. 

In commodities, crude futures fell on signs of diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - driven by a Japanese media report on a possible early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - and as Saudi Arabia sought to reopen a pipeline Brent is sitting just below $100/bbl while WTI has slipped below $94. Gold fell below $4,300 but recovered some ground, though is still off for the day.

US economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15 a.m.), September Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30 a.m.) and September Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes New York’s Williams (10:05 a.m.), Vice Chair Jefferson (10:20 a.m.) and Richmond’s Barkin (1 p.m.)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Brent crude dropped below $100 on a Kyodo report that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted a blockade of its ports. Futures whipsawed. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it must negotiate if it’s in the national interest to do so. BBG
• Several Asian refiners have been told informally by Saudi Aramco they will soon be able to pick up oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Loadings from Yanbu have been all-but-halted since the East-West pipeline was closed after being attacked by drones launched from Iraq on Sept. 10. BBG
• China's Xi Jinping is expected to press US President Donald Trump to halt Taiwan arms sales under a 1982 joint statement during a visit to Washington this week, which he could do at the US National Archives, sources briefed on the matter said. BBG
• Alibaba unveiled what it called China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to rival Nvidia and underpin a massive expansion of data center capacity. BBG
• Saudi Arabia spent months rerouting oil across the desert to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Now, with its Red Sea bypass route disrupted by attacks, the world’s oil kingpin is having to return to the waterway it was trying to avoid in the first place. Saudi Aramco, the country’s state-controlled oil giant, is loading more oil onto tankers in the Persian Gulf and then taking its chances sending them through the Strait of Hormuz. WSJ
• Republican lawmakers are ratcheting up pressure on Donald Trump to ban diesel exports as surging prices squeeze American farmers and truckers just weeks ahead of pivotal midterm elections. FT
• SoftBank drew more than $20 billion of preliminary demand for what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever. BBG
• Trump's approval rating fell to 32% - the lowest of his political career - as his fellow Republicans soured on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran ‌war. RTRS
• US office real estate is entering a new phase as billions in maturing debt force owners and investors to confront losses. Office CMBS delinquencies are near a record 12%, with almost $40 billion of debt maturing this year and next already troubled. BBG

Iran War

• A Senior Iranian Official said that Tehran welcomes the revival of diplomacy if the US takes tangible steps, stating that the Iranian delegation is in the US and has full authority to revive diplomacy in the US, Reuters reported. The official added that details of an agreement to end hostilities with the US can be discussed in New York via mediators. Furthermore, the official said the proposal was delivered to the US via mediators on September 16th while reiterating the Kyodo report that Iran can reopen the Strait within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts the blockade.
• Iran has reportedly suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stop military operations related to Hormuz, Kyodo reported citing an Iranian official. The official added that the proposal called for renewed talks aimed at reaching a permanent end to hostilities between the two countries. Furthermore, the official went on to say that there is a possibility of moving toward an agreement, but the US must demonstrate "seriousness and commitment" if diplomacy is to advance.
• IRGC said that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate but it will respond to any enemy strike with multiple strikes across different arenas and in various ways, Al Jazeera reported. To add, the IRGC said it will have no contact with the US as a military institution, even if Washington requests it and its assessments indicate the US and Israel are not prepared for a new war, but Iran is ready if they miscalculate.
• US President Trump said he had meetings regarding Iran and that Iran is not doing well.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said US President Trump cannot impose his power on Iran, adding that Iran will neither shut down nor surrender. Ghalibaf went on to say that missile technology is at a stage where Iran can "target anywhere it decides" and they will never yield in the conflict.
• Iran's Judiciary Spokesperson said Iran has full control over the Strait of Hormuz, SNN reported.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said introducing Iran as a cause of fuel price hikes is merely a sign of the US administration's evasion of responsibility for consequences of military aggression against Iran.
• G7 issued a statement on the Middle East which noted the situation in Yemen poses an unacceptable threat to the stability and security in the region and to global energy security, while it condemned in the strongest terms the unacceptable continued strikes carried out by the Houthis in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia. It called on the Houthis to immediately cease all military actions, threats and attacks against civilian shipping, as well as called on Iran to end its arming of and support for the Houthis, which it noted violates UN Security Council resolutions. Furthermore, it stated that Iran's reprehensible actions constitute a dangerous pattern of escalation and risk further exacerbating the conflict.
• Israeli Defence Minister said they will bomb Iran for the 3rd time if necessary until the regime is overthrown, Al Arabiya reported.
• French President Macron said he had a constructive discussion with US President Trump on the Red Sea and Ukraine.
• UK PM Burnham agreed for the UK to provide Saudi Arabia with defensive air-to-air refuelling, with the support to begin in days and last for weeks.
• EU's Kallas said the EU naval mission in the Red Sea requires additional naval and air resources, while she added the EU would need more than 10 ships in the Red Sea.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly gained following the advances on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed and notched a record close as Meta shares surged over 11% on strong adoption of its Muse AI agent and with AMD joining the USD 1tln market cap club, while markets in Japan were closed again for the holidays. ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains capped as the strength in tech, consumer discretionary and health care was partly offset by losses in utilities, energy and financials. KOSPI took its cue from the tech and communications outperformance stateside, while South Korea's Industry Ministry noted that the final announcement on the US investment plan will be made by President Trump, with the funds to be remitted within 45 days if requested by the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive as tech stocks led the advances in Hong Kong, although some property, energy and biopharmaceutical stocks lagged while participants also continue to await the Trump-Xi summit this week.

Top Asian News

• RBA Governor Bullock said supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to deal with and that policy needs to deal with second-round effects on inflation, while she stated that the current decline in house prices is consistent with past episodes and that unemployment at 4.5‑5% is likely to reduce inflation pressure. Furthermore, Bullock said she is not signalling anything on policy, and it is up to the board, as well as noted that inflation risks are materialising from the Middle East and excess demand at home.
• RBNZ Governor Breman said near-term inflation is expected to be somewhat higher if elevated oil prices persist, while she noted the RBNZ remains focused on the inflation outlook ahead of the October policy decision. Breman also commented that the economic outlook remains subject to significant risks and that current data points to continued economic recovery, though progress remains uneven.
• Alibaba (9988 HK) unveiled its Zhenwu V900 chip, which it said is the most powerful in China with three times the performance of the predecessor, while the Co. targets 20GW of data centre capacity by 2032 and the Qwen team plans to train a new model at a scale of 5tln-10tln parameters.

European bourses were initially lower this morning, but then flicked into the green after a report in Kyodo suggested that Iran could open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, citing a source. This helped boost sentiment, with crude benchmarks falling to lows, hence weighing on yields. European sectors hold a positive bias. Retail took the top spot, joined closely by Media and Tech. To the downside resides Insurance and Telecoms. Key European movers include: Kingfisher (+8.2%) , raises its FY26/27 adj. PBT guidance; Smiths Group (+4.5%), FY26 revenue raises Y/Y and raises its dividend above estimates; Evonik (+3.3%), reports that BASF explored a potential deal with the Co. earlier in 2026; Bureau Veritas (+1.0%), raises its 2027-28 total revenue CAGR guidance; Ericsson (-3.5%), downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Top European News

• German Chancellor Merz’s woes cast doubt over the bloc's EUR 2tln budget deal, with his authority in Brussels hobbled by his party’s poor results in regional elections, according to FT.
• UK PM Burnham to call on EU Commission President von der Leyen to allow the UK to partake in the EU's Made in Europe industrial framework, according to the FT.

FX

• Snapshot: The FX space has been exceptionally choppy this morning. Initially, G10s were mixed against the USD, but are now mostly lower, as the USD clambered higher as the session progressed. The Kiwi outperforms after hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Bremen. She noted that near-term inflation is expected to be somewhat higher if elevated oil prices persist.
• DXY is a touch lower this morning and holds within a 100.30 to 100.66 range. The bias was initially stronger for much of the European morning, before a report in Kyodo, citing an Iranian source, suggested that Iran had told the US admin that it will open the Strait within seven days, if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. This spurred immediate and sustained pressure in the crude complex, weighing on yields and therefore on the USD.
• Following this action, JPY was the largest beneficiary, flicking from red to green within a few minutes. USD/JPY fell from 157.62 to a session trough of 156.85 within a small timeframe – largely thanks to narrowing yield differentials.
• Some may view this move as a bit outsized, given that there is currently no progress to peace at this stage. However, it points out that the mood is a bit more constructive heading into the UN General Assembly, where the Iranian President is set to make an appearance. No sideline meetings are currently expected between the US and Iran, however, the US and Gulf leaders will meet. Any positive mood music following that meeting will no doubt put another bout of pressure on the USD.

Fixed Income

• A bearish start for fixed income, amid initial crude strength and a modest reversal of some of Monday’s action. Gilts underperformed modestly in early-trade, given the unwelcome borrowing data for the UK vs both market and OBR consensus.
• However, this action, of circa. 30 ticks lower in Bunds, five in USTs and over 40 in Gilts gave way to a geopolitical/energy-induced move higher and into the green. After a Kyodo source outlined that Iran has suggested to the US that it would open Hormuz in one week if the US blockade is lifted, alongside a tone change from the IRGC on negotiating with the US if needed.
• This lifted USTs to a 106-09+ peak, firmer by just under 10 ticks on the day. Bunds and Gilts followed, to the upside of 23 ticks and just over 30 respectively. However, as the energy move pauses for breath and updates since the two above have, net, been more bullish for crude, this has unwound with fixed income now near-enough unchanged on the day.
• The day was always headlined by the UN General Assembly, but following the morning reporting, the speeches by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian tomorrow now draw even greater attention; for any rebuttal of the above, or signs of tangible progress between the sides.
• That aside, BTPs were disappointed by the 2025 deficit/GDP revision, which remained above the key 3.0% mark that determines the EU’s EDP system. As such, we now look to see if Italian Finance Minister Giorgetti moves forward with using the Escape Clause or not. For reference, the BTP-Bund 10yr spread remained steady at 90bps at the time.
• Germany sells EUR 3.735bln vs Exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.21x (prev. 1.56x), average yield 3.28% (prev. 3.09%), retention 25.3% (prev. 22.16%).
• UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.07x (prev. 3.34x), average yield 4.843% (prev. 4.613%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.2bps).

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures have reversed earlier gains and are now sharply lower following a notable shift in tone from Iran, alongside a report from an Iranian source in Japan's Kyodo. First, the IRGC said that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate; this contrasts with the usual escalatory tone of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Shortly after the IRGC headline, and adding to the diplomatic mood, Iran reportedly suggested to the US that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, reiterating Iran's conditions for Hormuz concessions. The Kyodo report was later corroborated by a Senior Iranian Source who noted that the Iranian delegation is in the US to revive diplomacy with the US. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia has reportedly restarted the East-West oil pipeline to resume crude oil exports from the Yanbu port.
• Following the above developments, Brent fell from USD 97.70/bbl before the headlines to a USD 93.84/bbl low, while WTI fell from USD 93.14/bbl to a USD 89.40/bbl low. Dutch TTF has followed the broader energy complex lower as the prospect of progress around Hormuz reduces some of the Middle East supply risk premium. The contract has fallen from a EUR 75.22/MWh high to around EUR 72/MWh.
• Precious metals have trimmed some of their earlier downside as energy prices and global yields fall following the more diplomatic Iranian headlines. Spot gold has recovered from a USD 4,292/oz low to above its 50 DMA (USD 4,316/oz), having earlier reached USD 4,376/oz. Spot silver similarly trades around USD 65.50/oz after falling to a USD 64.57/oz low from a USD 65.81/oz high.
• Base metals remain firmer, with copper supported by the broader positive global risk tone, while the sharp pullback in energy prices provides some relief to the inflation and growth outlook. COMEX copper trades around USD 6.66/lb, near the upper end of its session range. 3M LME copper trades towards the upper end of a USD 14,703.60-14,790.00/t range.
• Saudi Arabia restarts the East-West oil pipeline and prepares to resume crude oil exports from Yanbu port later on Tuesday, according to trade sources.
• Saudi's Aramco has reportedly told Asian refiners that they will be able to pick up oil from Yanbu soon, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• Libya's NOC said an armed group closed valve 7 on the Sharara crude pipeline to Zawiya port, causing a sharp drop in output at the Sharara oilfield. It was later reported that the Sharara oil field production fell by more than half to about 127k bpd after an armed group shut the pipeline to the Zawiya export terminal.
• Russia's oil exports from Black Sea Novorossiysk Port reportedly surged to 650k bpd in September, +50% M/M, sources suggested.
• Indonesia's nickel hub will cut output as an El Niño-driven drought reduces production.
• Russia's Agriculture Ministry said its grain procurement planned for 2026-27 at 3mln tonnes, IFX reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• Chinese President Xi's most urgent goal during the summit with US President Trump is extending the trade truce with the US, but he is also expected to discuss Taiwan, Iran and AI, according to FT.
• USTR will hold a hearing regarding the Section 301 investigation into Germany's pharmaceutical policies today.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to visit China between October 8th-9th for trade talks.
• Canada's Trade Minister said the country is making great headway in concluding a free trade agreement with India, while they will continue to have talks with the US.
• China's MOFCOM announced the adjustment to the "Catalogue for the Administration of Export of Precursor Chemicals to Specific Countries", stating that export permits will be required for the US, Mexico and Canada under new rules.
• China's MOFCOM said that its Commerce Minister met with the German Auto Industry Association President to discuss bilateral auto cooperation and China-EU trade. MOFCOM said that China is not the root cause of EU trade problems.

Geopolitics

• Russian Kremlin said they are finding alternative routes for their grain and that Ukraine is the reason for the export issues. Discussions with Turkey around the Black Sea have taken place.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio are set to meet on September 23rd, TASS reported.
• Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck an oil refinery in Ukraine’s Kremenchuk, TASS reported.
• Ukraine's Naftogaz said that the Russian attack caused critical damage, which makes it effectively impossible to restore it.
• Polish Army said it commenced military aviation operations in Polish airspace following a Russian aerial attack on Ukraine, although it later announced that military aviation operations in Polish airspace concluded and there was no violation of Polish airspace observed.
• The US will reopen a military base in southern Greenland and establish presence at a second site in eastern Greenland, according to sources.

Event Calendar

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have put in a strong performance over the last 24 hours, with Brent crude oil (-3.40%) briefly falling beneath $100/bbl again as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution in the Middle East. Brent is a little above $101/bbl this morning but net net the week has started more optimistically. This has been highlighted by the record high for the Nasdaq (+2.26%), Bitcoin moving back above $85,000 for the first time since January, whilst the 10yr bund yield (-6.3bps) had its biggest daily decline since May. And despite September’s reputation as one of the worst of the year for markets, the latest moves actually leave the S&P 500 (+1.49%) back in positive territory for the month and within half a percent of its all-time high.  

Although oil is back up a little overnight, Brent fell back beneath $100/bbl yesterday for the first time in nine trading sessions before closing at $100.34/bbl. In part, that followed more positive headlines over the weekend, including comments from President Trump to Fox News that he would be open to meeting Iran’s President at the UN this week. So that raised hopes about some kind of deal between the two sides, and it helped drive a big reduction in energy prices across the board. In fact, European natural gas futures (-7.88%) saw their biggest daily decline since July, which was a huge positive impulse to risk appetite given Europe’s dependence on imported energy. Even though there are hopes of diplomatic progress, the rise back in oil overnight seems to be in part due to Bessent suggesting that all Iranian airlines will be shut down from tomorrow with anyone providing fuel, landing services etc., shut out of the dollar system.  

For now the momentum is on the more positive side though and with inflation fears subsiding again, that meant investors dialled back the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, even if plenty are still priced in for the month ahead. For instance, markets are still fully pricing in another ECB hike by year-end, but the probability of a second hike this year fell from 52% on Friday to 40% by the close. The read across from the energy pullback to Fed repricing wasn’t as clear, with 33bps of Fed hikes still priced by year end. That came amid some hawkish-leaning commentary from regional Fed presidents, with Goolsbee suggesting there was some “traditional demand overheating” around the AI investment boom, while Musalem said that the current fed funds rate of 3.75% to 4% is “on the accommodative side”.    

Notwithstanding the hawkish Fedspeak, lower energy prices proved to be a huge tailwind for sovereign bonds, particularly in Europe. So yields came down across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-6.3bps), OATs (-9.3bps) and BTPs (-9.6bps) all seeing sharp declines. In fact, in all three cases that was their biggest decline since May. In the US, the declines weren’t quite as big, with the 10yr Treasury yield down -4.5bps to 4.95% while the 2yr yield actually inched up +0.3bps to 4.75%. That brought the Treasury 2s10s slope to its flattest since February 2025, just before Trump’s tariff escalation raised questions about the sustainability of US exorbitant privilege.  
For equities, it was also a very strong session, as fresh optimism on the outlook led to big gains across the major indices. In the US, the S&P 500 (+1.43%) rose for a third consecutive session and had its best day in seven weeks, leaving the index just -0.44% beneath its record high from last month. Tech stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq (+2.26%) and the Magnificent 7 (+3.44%) rising to new record highs of the own. Top performers included Meta (+11.43%), amid optimism over its Muse AI agent, and chipmaker AMD (+9.95%), which became the latest company to reach a $1trn valuation. Meanwhile, there were broad gains in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+1.02%), the DAX (+1.07%) and the CAC 40 (+0.92%) all climbed.  

Speaking of geopolitical developments, there were plenty of headlines on the US-China trade talks yesterday, ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this week. For markets, the big question is what’s going to happen when the current one-year trade truce expires in November, and whilst the general tone remains positive, there still isn’t an agreement yet. For instance, the New York Times reported yesterday that the US had proposed a 6-month extension, whilst China had pushed for a longer one. So that fitted with comments from US Trade Representative Greer on Bloomberg, who was asked if it would be a 3-6 month extension, and he said “that’s probably the right kind of range”. Otherwise he sounded positive though, saying that “we’ll continue talking and I think both sides want it”.

Ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, our geopolitical analysts, economists and strategists are hosting a China macro webinar at 9am LDN today. You can register  here.

Otherwise, the big political news came from Germany yesterday, where there was plenty of reaction after Sunday’s state election results. As a reminder, that vote saw Chancellor Merz’s CDU party fail to meet the 5% threshold in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, meaning they’re not in the regional parliament for the first time in Germany’s post-war history. Yet despite the speculation over Merz’s position, he said that he had the backing of CDU party leaders, and that both the CDU and SPD wanted the governing coalition to continue. 

Asian equity markets are broadly higher this morning, led by technology stocks as an overnight rally on Wall Street reignited investor appetite for AI-related stocks. Across the region, the KOSPI (+0.69%) is leading gains, while Japanese markets remain closed through Wednesday. Elsewhere, China’s CSI 300 (+0.51%) is trading moderately higher, with the Shanghai Composite (+0.23%) and Hang Seng (+0.33%) posting modest advances. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.29%) is also edging higher. US equity futures are fairly flat.  

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the UK public finances for August, the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September, and the US Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for September.  Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson, the Fed’s Williams and Barkin, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Kaasik, Nagel, Kocher, Seijpen and Simkus.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 08:39

UK's Burnham Approves Military Support To Saudis, Limited To Aerial Refueling 

The UK has finally made a formal decision on the intense political and foreign policy question it has faced for the couple weeks since the Houthis started making rapid gains against the Saudi-backed coalition in Yemen.

London has announced it will increase its military support to Saudi Arabia, albeit it has become clear that this will still be very limited. "We're doing it for national security reasons in support of our own national security," Defense Minister Luke Pollard told Sky News of "defensive" air-to-air refuelling for Saudi warplanes engaged in air raids over Yemen. Needless to say Riyadh was hoping for much more.

RAF Voyager, via UK Defence Ministry

"In dangerous times, good friends stand together," he added, defending the support as consistent with international law.

Confirming the action Monday, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he was "acting to secure the interests of Britain and the wider region, because of course Saudi Arabia has been experiencing attack, is looking at potential further disruption, and we need to keep those pathways (for oil) open."

The appeals from Riyadh only intensified after the kingdom's East-West pipeline was taken offline by a devastating drone attack. Blame immediately fell on the Houthis, which have been mounting cross-border missile and drone strikes; however, a US official also pointed to Shia paramilitaries out of Iraq as a likely culprit.

The UK has further said it will "work with partners to support regional stability, protect civilians and support humanitarian access."

Certainly this Burnham government move is largely political and symbolic - a way to tall the Saudis and the world that 'we are doing something' but without actually doing much of deep substance. After all, this is all that's apparently been offered so far:

U.K. officials say the agreement will start in the coming days, and involve one RAF Voyager refueling Saudi planes on “defensive” missions.

Certainly the Saudis were hoping for much, much more - possibly even ground troops, or at the very least jets actively involved in combat as part of the coalition. The Associated Press suggests that eventually the Saudis will be supported with refueling planes (plural).

While Britain has long had a close defense partnership with the kingdom, it hasn't shown an interest in getting bogged down in Yemen operations, also at a moment the Iran conflict remains unpredictable

But if the Houthi attack on Aramco sites intensify, the UK could get more deeply involved in the conflict given that Burnham said keeping the pathways for oil "open" remains a high priority. 

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also of late been pressing Egypt, France, Turkey, and Pakistan to step up. The Saudis recently signed the Mecca Defense Pact with Pakistan and Egypt.

All involved on the Saudi side probably fear getting sucked into a quagmire, but also have clear interests in seeing Red Sea shipping stay open and free.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 08:35

Joby Completes First Autonomous Flight Across US

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

Joby Aviation completed the first-ever autonomous flight across the United States using an aircraft equipped with its autonomy technology.

A Joby Aviation electric aircraft takes off from JFK International Airport in New York on April 27, 2026. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Manned with only an onboard safety pilot, the aircraft navigated 3,199 miles with no human control inputs as it finished its eastbound leg of a monthlong tour in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, Joby announced on Sept. 18.

The aircraft's first cross-country tour ended, coincidentally, near the Kitty Hawk monument, the site of the Wright brothers' first powered flight in 1903.

The converted Cessna Caravan was able to take off, navigate, land, and taxi under remote supervision from Joby's Santa Cruz, California, headquarters and Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina, some 2,323 miles away.

"This journey across America offers a glimpse into a new era of aviation," Joby Aviation founder and CEO JoeBen Bevirt said in the announcement. "Autonomy has an important role to play in the future of flight, allowing us to connect remote communities, deliver critical supplies, respond faster to disasters, support military operations and keep pilots out of harm's way."

The aviation firm's Electric Skies Tour originated in Concord, California, departing from Buchanan Field Airport bound for Phoenix. From there, the self-guided aircraft traveled to Fort Worth, Texas, through Shaw Air Base in South Carolina to its destination in the Outer Banks, landing at Dare County Regional Airport.

"During the cross-country journey, the aircraft proved its ability to seamlessly integrate into high-density environments like Phoenix Deer Valley, one of the nation's busiest general aviation ports," the announcement noted.

The Joby plane was also able to remotely reroute around severe weather conditions in real time.

According to the report, the aircraft will begin its return westbound journey with stops including Raleigh, North Carolina; Washington; Louisville, Kentucky; Wichita, Kansas; Oklahoma City; Salt Lake City; and Portland, Oregon.

In a March blog, Robert Wilkos, co-founder of VIPJets.com, a private jet charter firm headquartered in Houston, expressed some concerns about the possibility of future pilotless flights.

Wilkos noted that moving accountability from "crew in cockpit" to "system plus remote supervision" shifts the liability and affects insurance. As a result, he believes that total "pilotless" aircraft for passenger business jets will remain a long-term objective.

He said single-pilot operations are a better choice since they incorporate human decision-making along with technology.

"If regulators and stakeholders demand extremely high evidence for airlines to reduce crew, you should assume the evidence bar will be high for passenger-carrying business aviation too, even if the equipment is technically capable," he said in the blog.

"Regulators are still showing caution about removing human redundancy, and industry resistance is visible."

Wilkos also noted the importance of certifications for such flights and believes programs such as Joby have highlighted that certification process.

"Joby reported progress toward Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing and noted FAA acceptance of a large portion of its certification test plans, describing TIA as a key step toward certification flight testing."

Federal Aviation Administration described TIA as a formal phase where aviation regulators, such as the FAA, review tests and flight operations to ensure safety standards.

Founded in 2009, Joby has completed more than 400 flights and 800 automated flight hours in both controlled and uncontrolled airspace. The aircraft has also been used in U.S. military exercises.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 08:05

Agentic Wars Begin: Amazon Blocks Meta's Agents As Muse Takes World By Storm

Amazon.com has blocked Meta’s new AI agent from its retail site after the social media company declined a request to remove the bot, Bloomberg reported.

Meta’s Muse, which was introduced earlier this month and has taken the world by storm, quickly rising to the top of mobile app charts, a sign that the social media company is gaining traction in the increasingly crowded market for consumer AI assistants, and sent the company's stock price soaring, is designed to help people carry out such common online tasks as shopping and booking appointments.

However, since it has its own agentic product, Amazon prohibits other companies from deploying automated tools to shop its site and started blocking Muse on Sunday night, a spokesperson said. Shoppers using Muse see a series of pop-ups saying its use violates Amazon’s terms of use.

“We think it’s fairly straightforward that third-party applications that offer to make purchases on behalf of customers from other businesses should operate openly and respect service provider decisions about whether or not to participate,” Amazon spokesperson Lara Hendrickson said in an emailed statement, adding that an opt-in requirement is standard practice for food delivery apps and online travel agencies. “Agentic third-party applications such as Muse have the same obligations, and we’ve requested that Meta remove Amazon from the experience.”

Amazon builds its own automated shopping tools, but has sought to prevent rivals’ bots from browsing and making purchases from its catalog. The company last year sued Perplexity AI Inc., saying the widely used artificial intelligence startup sought to conceal its shopping agents after Amazon asked Perplexity to remove them. The legal skirmish is widely seen as a high-profile test case that could help determine the rules of the road governing agentic shopping.

So far, consumers are mostly using bots to research products rather than let them make purchases. So Amazon’s move to block shopping agents from accessing its site means the company is unlikely to lose much business. But if consumers start using AI agents to buy stuff, the bots could select other e-commerce sites, costing Amazon sales and advertising revenue.

Amazon Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy said earlier this year that the agentic shopping experience left much to be desired, and that the bots often flubbed pricing or other data.

“We’re having conversations with all those folks to try and make that better and find something that works for customers and all the companies,” he said in April. 

Perhaps to offset the negative vibes from the angry Amazon response, late on Monday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that he was "teaming up with Shopify to make shopping and checkout easier in Muse. Shoppers find more. Shops sell more. More partnerships like this coming soon."

Teaming up with Shopify to make shopping and checkout easier in Muse. Shoppers find more. Shops sell more. More partnerships like this coming soon. https://t.co/ccak4J7IIb

— Mark Zuckerberg (@finkd) September 21, 2026

Maybe... but more likely the won't be, since every retailer will want to have their own proprietary agents access to their own content and product offering. 

Hence agent wars. 

Meta's Muse is ranked the No. 1 free app on the US Apple iOS App and Google Play stores as of Monday. The assistant, which is available for people 18 years and older, was downloaded more than 902,000 times in the six days after Meta introduced it on Sept. 8, according to Abe Yousef, senior insights analyst at Sensor Tower. That’s more than the 773,000 downloads of its predecessor, the Meta AI app, in the same post-launch period. 

According to Goldman, Meta’s Muse (powered by Muse Spark) represents a major leap because it delivers ready-to-use personal agents with simple chat interfaces, including deep WhatsApp integration for Muse, so no coding is required - unlike earlier Claude-style bots.

They actively handle tasks like booking holidays or restaurants, and go further by proactively chasing email follow-ups, flagging inconsistencies or conflicts in your inbox, monitoring threads, and advancing goals in the background even when you’re offline. Classic chatbots like ChatGPT stay reactive: they answer questions or draft text only when prompted, never independently act across your apps or keep working on your behalf. As Goldman's TMT specialist Sean Johnstone writes, "the more I use Instinct the more I like it – its really is like having your own dedicated PA."

The sudden surge of Muse means the frontier models' agentic dominance just got another major competitor. It also means there will be an unprecedented demand for hardware: as Wccftech writes, "If Meta’s Muse Personal Agent Scales To Just 100 Million Users, It Would Require 1.58 Million AMD Ryzen CPUs, 800 Petabyte Of RAM, And 10,000 Petabyte Of SSD Under Ideal Conditions." More: 

If you were wondering why everyone has suddenly turned so bullish on CPUs from Intel, AMD, and Arm, look no further than the underlying compute requirements for serving Meta's Muse personal agent to just 100 million users, assuming minimal sharing, especially as Meta has promised each Muse user a dedicated VM that can work continuously in the background.

Also, Meta is currently allowing up to 100 million free tokens per week, with paid subscription tiers starting around $20 per month for heavy power users.

Every Muse user is supposed to get their own cloud PC.
2 vCPUs, 8GB RAM, 100GB disk.

If Meta actually leaves those boxes on, user growth turns into a chip and memory problem.

that’s what i'm trying to size

a few thoughts on $META and Muse:

Muse is 13 days old and US only… https://t.co/57wvCNGsIj

— dylan ツ (@demian_ai) September 21, 2026

Of course, the agentic fee will only cover a tiny fraction of the hardware required to run the compute the agents will soak up, which means that - if successful in getting more people to use it - Zuckerberg is about to take Meta's capex into hyperdrive. Which, for the company formerly known as Facebook before it changed its name to Meta after a catastrophic foray into the metaverse which cost it nearly $100 billion in wasted funds, won't be the first time it has aggressively chased an overhyped concept only to crash and burn. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 07:55

Iran's Fars Calls Reuters' Hormuz Reopening Story "Invalid" Ahead Of Trump's UN Address

Update:

• Iran's Fars Rejects Hormuz Reopening Reports As Brent Slides <$100 On Diplomatic Hopes
• Brent Tumbles On US Media & Aligned Outlets Pushing Rumored Diplomatic Efforts 

Iran's Fars Rejects Reporting 

Kyodo and Reuters published positive diplomatic headlines early Tuesday morning that sent Brent crude futures tumbling below $100 a barrel, but Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency denied them.

Kyodo and Reuters, citing Iranian sources, reported that Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eased US naval pressure on the Hormuz chokepoint and lifted its blockade of Iranian ports.

Fars called those two reports "invalid and incorrect."

Despite Fars' rejection of the reporting, US media and aligned outlets focused this morning on rumored diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict ahead of President Trump's United Nations General Assembly address later today.

Brent crude remains below $100.

Brent Tumbles Below $100 After Report Says Iran Offers To Reopen Hormuz Chokepoint

Brent crude futures tumbled early Tuesday, as much as 3%, and slid below the $ 100-a-barrel level to the low $98 range after reports that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within one week if the Trump administration begins easing naval pressure in the critical waterway and ends its blockade of Iranian ports. 

Tehran conveyed the proposal through intermediaries as part of efforts to revive negotiations and end the conflict, Kyodo News reported, citing a senior Iranian government official. 

The offer calls for the US naval blockade of the critical waterway and Iranian ports to end in exchange for reopening the strait. This comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic war against Tehran has ramped up (read latest). 

Here's more from the Japanese outlet:

The proposal, which has already been conveyed to Washington through mediators, calls for renewed talks aimed at reaching a permanent end to hostilities between the two countries, the official said.

Tehran plans to use the U.N. General Assembly gathering this week in New York to consult with countries acting as intermediaries.

The official ruled out a meeting between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and U.S. President Donald Trump on the fringes of the gathering, but said progress toward an agreement remains possible.

"There is a possibility of moving toward an agreement," the official said, while adding that Washington must demonstrate "seriousness and commitment" if diplomacy is to advance.

Iran is seeking signs from Washington that it is prepared to return to negotiations and take steps toward an end to the U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports and a halt to military operations related to the Strait of Hormuz, the official said.

If such steps are taken, Iran is prepared to reopen the strategic waterway within seven days and return to the negotiating table, according to the official.

Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by Reuters as saying this overnight development is a positive sign that diplomatic efforts may be working.

"There may also be other obstacles, such as the issue of tolls and fees, to overcome before a lasting solution can be achieved," Hussain added.

Later this morning, President Trump will address the United Nations General Assembly and meet with world leaders, likely discussing the Gulf conflict and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Despite another exchange of threats between Washington and Tehran on Sunday, Trump said he was open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian this week at UNGA. An Iranian official subsequently told Reuters that no direct meeting would take place. 

Diplomatic movement appears to be happening under the surface to resolve the US-Iran conflict and the global diesel crisis. However, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, does not expect much downside in Brent prices until transits through the maritime chokepoint increase, particularly shipments of refined products, where the real energy crisis lurks ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 07:47

'Survival Mode' - Farmers Crushed As Trump's War On Iran Sends Diesel Cost Soaring

As Donald Trump's war on Iran nears the seven-month mark, the economic damage is reverberating all over the world, and all across the United States. Among the Americans who are feeling the most pain from a war their federal legislators never declared are the nation's farmers, who are growing increasingly desperate under the weight of rising costs for diesel, fertilizer and equipment.

It's a demographic that leans hard to the right, but now feels let down by Trump and others in Washington. "It's his war that caused this, this war in Iran. We're not winning that war. And many farmers feel like we shouldn't be there," farmer John Boyd, Jr told CNN. Trump says the war in Iran is necessary to prevent the country from building a nuclear weapon. However, going back to 2007 and up to the eve of the war, the US intelligence committee has repeatedly assessed that Iran was not building one. 

"I've done this 34 years. I have never worried and stressed like I have the last year," North Carolina farmer Matt Bell told CBS News. "We've cut everything we can cut." Trying every option he can think of to improve his cash flow, Bell has put off replacing equipment, produced some of his own fertilizer, and opened a pumpkin patch and hayride business for the fall. The rising costs come after a difficult period had already weakened his operation's financial security. 

"We're just getting to the point now there's nothing left to cut," farmer Matt Bell told CBS News

"The last several years in agriculture have been terrible, and we have just cut the fat anywhere we could. But we're just getting to the point now there's nothing left to cut. You cannot run without fuel. You cannot run without fertilizer. You have to have that," Bell said. 

As a result of a major reduction in oil exports from the Persian Gulf, the nationwide average cost for a gallon of diesel hit $6.49 this week, up 75% from a year ago, according to the AAA. Lately, the price volatility has led Bell's diesel distributors to offer price quotations that are only good for a matter of hours. He'd budgeted $35,000 for fuel in 2026, but blew past that number in August. "Every piece of equipment on this farm runs on diesel," he emphasized. 

In an interview with Sky News, Texas cattle rancher Lynn Fleming said her August outlay for few was almost double what she'd paid in recent years. "Obviously the main [factor] is what we're facing everyday with the Iranian situation," Fleming said. Her husband, Robert, said he felt blindsided by the war. "We had no idea that he was going to pull the prank with the Strait of Hormuz. He didn't tell us ... he was going to go do the military maneuvers and try to control the oil supply over there. We had no warning of what was going to happen." A major cornerstone of Trump's 2024 campaign was his pledge to be a "peace president" who would refrain from starting any new wars.    

American farmer on Trump: “We had no idea the he was going to pull the prank with the Strait of Hormuz.. and try to control the oil supply. We had no warning of what was going to happen.” pic.twitter.com/u3IE50pEqn

— Molly Ploofkins (@Mollyploofkins) September 18, 2026

In addition to the war, Bell blames Trump's tariff policies for boosting the prices of many of a farmer's essentials. "Everything we're touching, the fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, seed, parts — you know, the whole nine yards, everything that we touch has gone up," he said.  

Cattle ranchers say they felt undercut by Trump's decision to combat rising food prices by eliminating tariffs on imported beef -- at a time when US ranchers were already under financial duress. "I'm already absorbing your high fuel prices that came out of nowhere," South Texas rancher Josh Eilers told Sky. "It's like, c'mon guys, just help me out a little bit. I just can't keep absorbing more and more and more, or I simply won't be able to afford to do this anymore." 

“I’m paying $7 a gallon here for diesel fuel.”

“My combine holds 140 gallons.”

“That’s right at $1,000 to fill up my combine.”

For farmer John Boyd Jr., those numbers illustrate a much bigger problem in American agriculture.

Farmers are paying more for the fuel, fertilizer,… pic.twitter.com/lTesmNvLHW

— Farm Action (@FarmActionUS) September 16, 2026

"I do not want any American to feel sorry for the American farmer," said Bell. "I want the Americans to be mad that we have been put in this situation. We're fighting for survival and we're running out of options... I am very mad. I think there's been some very bad policy that's been made that has led things to get to where we are." 

Most of the farmers and ranchers quoted in this article say they voted for Trump. Their ire over the state of affairs is surely contributing to a major nationwide dip in Republican enthusiasm going into the midterms. Robert Fleming had this to say: "I'm afraid there's going to be some changes made [in] voting. Maybe people not even voting, who knows, because a lot of the people feel like we the people are not being heard." 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 07:45

NY Lawmaker Launches $30 Million Effort To Coordinate Democrat Control Of AI

New York Assemblymember Alex Bores is launching a $30 million effort to unite Democrats behind a common artificial intelligence regulatory agenda ahead of the 2028 elections, taking the issue that defined his unsuccessful congressional campaign to a national stage.

New York State Assembly member Alex Bores

His congressional run was bankrolled by Anthropic's political money, a PAC funded with $20 million from the company and $401,250 from its employees, and his new group has not said who is funding it.

The organization, "Who Decides," is launching Tuesday with Bores and his former chief of staff, Anna Myers, leading an effort to "build the winning Democratic answer to AI." Its objective is to turn concerns about the technology into a shared platform for Democratic candidates, from presidential contenders to candidates further down the ballot.

"Who Decides' goal is that by 2028, Democratic candidates from the top of the ticket on down run with a common AI safety agenda," the group's launch announcement states. "That means addressing the harms people already see and the broader danger that increasingly powerful and out-of-control systems could destabilize our economy, our democracy, and our safety."

The group plans to concentrate on 11 states it identifies as important to the 2028 presidential primary and general election: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Its plans include quarterly state and national polling, national conferences and partnerships with local organizations, Politico reports.

Those partnerships would bring together labor unions, parents, educators, civil-rights organizations, faith groups and other constituencies. The organization says it will work with those groups to develop AI policy positions and put them before candidates through questionnaires, forums, endorsements and briefings.

"We don't let five people write the laws for hundreds of millions of Americans," Bores says in the announcement, referring to the concentration of decision-making among AI executives. "There is no reason to let them write the rules for AI."

An Organizing Push Ahead Of 2028

The launch follows a series of warnings from within the AI industry and competing political responses over how aggressively Washington should intervene. Former Anthropic and OpenAI researcher Jacob Coxon warned last week that increasingly powerful AI could threaten humanity. Leaders at Anthropic and OpenAI subsequently called for slowing development so safety measures could keep pace.

Former President Barack Obama has urged Democrats to make AI a central political issue, with plans addressing both safety and the technology's economic consequences. His comments included a call for the party's 2028 presidential candidates to focus on the issue.

The launch comes days after AI techbros agreed that a 'pause' in development was needed along with new oversight (something Beijing won't agree to). In a Saturday essay which set off the calls to slow down, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposes governance that lives largely inside the industry: third-party evaluators embedded in the labs on terms the labs set, with the right to publish their findings; coordination among frontier companies on safety standards, enabled by a narrow antitrust waiver from Washington; and, only later, agreements with foreign governments. He calls federal regulation of every frontier lab the most effective approach but argues that passing laws takes time. Who Decides starts from the premise that "a few executives inside a handful of companies are making all the decisions," and it refuses their money. The two efforts want many of the same rules, including published safety plans, incident reporting and independent testing of frontier models, and disagree about who should write them and how soon. The industry's safety wing has already bet on Bores once: Public First Action, a PAC funded by a $20 million Anthropic donation, spent $450,000 supporting him in the primary.

President Trump pushed in the opposite direction Monday, rejecting calls for additional restrictions and arguing that existing government powers were sufficient. He also warned that slowing American development could benefit China.

Incest Is Best?

Bores' new group grew out of a campaign funded by Amodei's network - which runs through Effective altruism. The same network produced METR, the evaluator Amodei's essay names as his preferred watchdog - which itself was bankrolled largely by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz. Its most famous adherent, Sam Bankman-Fried, is in prison for fraud, and his $500 million stake in Anthropic, bought in 2022 with FTX customer funds, was liquidated in the exchange's bankruptcy. Anthropic grew up inside that world: Moskovitz and Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn funded its early rounds; Dario Amodei was an early signer of the movement's giving pledge; his sister and co-founder Daniela is married to Holden Karnofsky, the Open Philanthropy co-founder who joined Anthropic last year; and the trust with power over the company's board includes the CEO of the Centre for Effective Altruism.

Bores' new group grew out of a campaign funded by Amodei's network - which runs through effective altruism, a left-wing 'movement' that began with global poverty and animal welfare, preaches earning as much as possible in order to give it away, and over the past decade made preventing an AI catastrophe its central cause, bankrolled largely by Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz. The same network produced METR, the evaluator Amodei's essay names as his preferred watchdog. The movement's most famous adherent, Sam Bankman-Fried, is in prison for fraud, and his $500 million stake in Anthropic, bought in 2022 with what prosecutors said were FTX customer funds, was liquidated in the exchange's bankruptcy. Anthropic grew up inside that world: Moskovitz and Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn funded its early rounds; Dario Amodei was an early signer of the movement's giving pledge; his sister and co-founder Daniela is married to Holden Karnofsky, the Open Philanthropy co-founder who joined Anthropic last year; and the trust with power over the company's board includes the CEO of the Centre for Effective Altruism.

The same network reached Bores. Anthropic's $20 million gift to Public First Action, which backed him, sits alongside $401,250 that Anthropic employees gave to campaigns supporting him. Who Decides' pledge bans frontier-lab executives and corporate money - but doesn't bar the philanthropies that fund the AI-safety field. The group won't say who supplied the $10 million it has reportedly raised. The movement has tried electoral politics before: in 2022, Bankman-Fried's super PAC spent more than $10 million on Carrick Flynn's House primary in Oregon (which Flynn lost). 

Who Decides, meanwhile, is calling for an AI agenda that a future Democratic president could act on during the first 100 days in office.

From A Congressional Defeat To A National Campaign

Bores made AI regulation a central issue in his congressional primary campaign after helping pass New York's RAISE Act. The legislation requires major frontier AI developers to publish safety plans and report critical safety incidents. Although he lost the primary, Bores and Myers describe the campaign as the foundation for their new organization.

"The lesson Bores and Myers took from those fights was that confronting the AI industry is fertile political ground and that public demand for answers on AI policy exists but remains scattered," the announcement states.

The organization says it will reject "corporate money or contributions from senior executives at frontier AI companies." Its website directs prospective donors to a Givebutter fundraising page.

The $30 million figure refers to the overall effort, rather than an established amount already raised. A New York Times report summarized by Techmeme says the nonprofit has raised $10 million and plans to seek another $20 million in 2027.

For Bores and Myers, the stated task is to turn separate concerns about AI into a coordinated political program.

"What's missing is a coalition capable of turning that energy into a governing consensus before the technology, the economic dislocation, and the partisan battle lines harden," the launch announcement says.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 06:55

Wholesale Gas Prices Are Reaching Consumers Faster, ECB Says

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

The surge in wholesale natural gas prices is set to pass through the retail and electricity inflation in the Eurozone faster than in the past, the European Central Bank (ECB) said in its Economic Bulletin on Monday.

While the pass-through is faster and can manifest in the inflation numbers within one to three months for most Eurozone members, the pressure on electricity prices has been lower so far in 2026 compared to 2022, partly due to the higher shares of electricity generated from renewables, the ECB’s economists wrote.

“The impact of wholesale gas prices on wholesale electricity prices – which is typically strong with gas prices being the marginal price-setter for electricity prices – was dampened by a shift towards electricity generated from renewables,” they noted.

Natural gas prices have doubled since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, while oil prices have increased more modestly, by about 40%.

For Europe, soaring energy prices have rekindled inflation fears in Europe mostly due to the spike in wholesale gas prices.

The Iran war and the intensified competition for spot LNG supply from Asia came just as Europe was trying to build in the spring and summer natural gas inventories for winter.

The ECB, which in June raised the key interest rate for the euro area for the first time since 2023, raised the rates once again in September, by 0.25 percentage points, as inflation at over 3% is running well above the long-term ECB policy target of 2%.

“The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth,” the ECB said in its monetary policy decision on September 10, the day on which Saudi Arabia’s onshore oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz was attacked with drones.

“The pass-through of wholesale prices to retail prices has sped up for gas prices overall, but the broad pattern of lagged and uneven transmission remains for both gas prices and electricity prices,” the ECB economists said today.

An ECB survey of central banks in the Eurozone showed that changes in wholesale gas prices are expected to be passed on to consumer gas inflation within 1-3 months in more than half of the euro area, within 4-6 months in around one-tenth of the euro area, and within 7-12 months in around one-third of the euro area – all higher than in 2022.

“Notably, the share of countries to report a slow pass-through within 13-24 months has decreased from around 40% to around 5% since 2022,” the ECB noted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 06:30

The Nuclear Renaissance Disconnect: Utilities Plan Big While Stocks Lag

The Nuclear Energy Institute's (NEI) newly released 2026 Future of Nuclear Power survey captured American nuclear energy ambitions across 21 utility companies covering 95 commercial reactors. Reactor owners find themselves planning new reactors to meet the AI-juiced electricity demand of the future, along with the added demand from increased domestic manufacturing and electrification.

More than 97% of the units surveyed are considering or pursuing approval to operate for at least 80 years. It goes to highlight the long lifespan of reactor plants, with some owners now planning for operations out to 100 years from initial construction. 

NEI estimates that uprates, restarts, longer refueling cycles, and other improvements could collectively add more than 7 GW of nuclear generation from the existing fleet over the coming decade. That's more than the power you would get by building six new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors.

That includes roughly 2.2 GW from restarting the previously shutdown plants at Palisades, Three Mile Island, and Duane Arnold.

Between the 21 utilities surveyed, the report states those companies are planning for 33.6 GW of new nuclear generation over the next 15 years. Roughly 28 of those GWs are concentrated in 2035-2039.

New capacity is broadly split between large reactors and small modular reactors, while respondents reported no microreactor plans.

As we noted when covering The Nuclear Company's South Carolina reactor plans, America's “nuclear renaissance” still has to make the transition from announcements to actual construction.

Interest in supplying power to specific loads sheds some light on what the utilities are looking at powering with their growing nuclear ambitions. Over a dozen respondents are looking to provide energy for data centers. However, this is the first year that has seen zero interest in powering hydrogen generation plants.

2024 saw about a dozen respondents interested in behind the meter setups for powering hydrogen production facilities. After Congress changed up the tax credits for hydrogen applications to expire in 2028, interest from the utilities dropped down to only three respondents in 2025, leading to zero for this year.

Despite the incredibly rosy future being painted by the nuclear segments of America's utilities, the stock market holds a different opinion on the nuclear sector's constituents.

With SPY up about 12% this year and XLE up over 40%, the nuclear sector has trailed behind significantly. Of the three main nuclear-themed ETFs, none of them currently hold positive returns since the beginning of the year.

The uranium-heavy URA and the industrial/services-heavy NUKZ are down about 2-3%, while the more concentrated NLR is down about 13% YTD.

After multiple reactor developers, including Oklo and NuScale, had explosive runs in 2024 and 2025, multiple names in the nuclear corner have fallen over 50% in recent months as the nuclear theme is still tightly tied to the momentum and AI infrastructure trade.

The sector has a chance of being taken more seriously if grid-scale construction can finally start getting announced at scale, but for now, everything still seems to be in the talking stage, which is exciting absolutely no one.

The microreactor space has seen an increase in interest on the private side, with recent funding rounds for microreactor developers pushing over $1 billion. These reactors have some different application opportunities outside of the scope of traditional utilities, such as national defense applications and remote community power. 

As we've detailed at length with the DOE's Reactor Pilot Program, this class of reactor capacity is actually showing tangible progress towards commercialization.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 05:45