US Cities Face Water Stress Amid Crumbling Infrastructure

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times,

Across large swaths of the United States, drought conditions and the explosion of data centers have brought renewed attention to the future of the water supply. But the biggest concern may be something local governments have known about for years: aging pipes and other decaying infrastructure that could threaten supply even when water is abundant.

More U.S. cities have been facing water stress in recent years. Drought conditions affected more than a third of the nation last year, with almost 30 million Americans living in areas with high water stress, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

At the same time, data centers can consume upward of 5 million gallons of water per day. That’s the equivalent usage of a town with a population between 10,000 and 50,000 people. The number varies, but an estimated 4,149 data centers are currently operational in the United States, with another 2,788 announced or under construction.

But while drought and data center-related water consumption continue to make headlines, an estimated 6.75 billion gallons of treated drinking water are slipping through the cracks in America’s pipes every single day.

It’s a problem U.S. officials have seen coming for more than a decade.

A 2014 U.S. Government Accountability report found 40 out of 50 state water managers anticipated supply shortages in their states under “average conditions” within 10 years.

Fast forward to last year, when 75 percent of U.S. city officials and more than half of business executives said they expect water risks to outpace all other infrastructure threats, according to a Schneider Electric study.

“Water is not just essential for life—it’s the backbone of America’s economic strength—yet today the U.S. is facing a major water crisis, driven by dwindling supply and outdated infrastructure,” Sophie Borgne, Water and Environment Segment president at Schneider Electric, stated in a press release.

A general view of the Google Midlothian Data Center in Midlothian, Texas, on Nov. 14, 2025. Data centers can consume more than 5 million gallons of water per day, adding pressure in regions already facing water shortages that threaten residential access, industrial growth, and long-term urban resilience. Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Most U.S. water pipes are between 45 and 100 years old, and many contain toxic elements such as lead and copper, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

In its 2025 infrastructure report card, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. drinking water a C- score and wastewater management a D+ due to the ongoing battle to replace U.S. water pipes.

“The nation’s water infrastructure is aging and underfunded. More than 9 million existing lead service lines pose health concerns,” the engineers stated in the report.

The study authors also noted that “funding shortfalls” remain a problem in state-level funding for the necessary upgrades to drinking water pipes. They also observed that only an estimated 30 percent of these utility companies have fully implemented a water asset management plan, and less than half are even trying to implement one.

In October 2024, the EPA announced its final rule on replacing lead piping nationwide, with compliance required to begin that year. The ultimate goal was to replace all aging and leaking drinking water pipes nationwide within 10 years. The agency stated that the country’s drinking water systems would need $625 billion for pipe replacement, treatment plant upgrades, and additional assets.

“[With] the latest data from 2025, EPA estimates that there are 4 million lead service lines across the country, down from 9 million previously estimated,” an EPA spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

The spokesperson said an additional $3 billion in state funding is available to reduce exposure to lead in drinking water.

“EPA is committed to Making America Healthy Again by ensuring that all Americans can rely on clean and safe drinking water,” the spokesperson said, adding that the agency’s free water technical assistance program is available to “help drinking water systems identify, plan for, and replace lead pipes in the communities they serve.”

Workers use giant pumps to move sewage around a broken section of the Potomac Interceptor in Cabin John, Md., on Feb. 16, 2026. An estimated 6.75 billion gallons of treated drinking water are slipping through the cracks in America’s pipes every single day. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Doing the Math

Presently, water lost to faulty pipe infrastructure is costing U.S. utilities $6.4 billion annually. So why is this decades-in-the-making problem still ongoing? Some say it’s because the math doesn’t work.

“While the $6 billion loss of 2 trillion gallons of treated drinking water—nearly 20 percent of the drinking water consumed in the U.S.—to old pipes and crumbling infrastructure sounds large, it must be put in perspective,” Jeff Stollman told The Epoch Times.

As an economist and technology futurist, Stollman prepares impact forecasts for industries, government, and the environment. He said the cost of replacing leaky water pipes ranges from $1 million to $4 million per mile, depending on pipe size, location, and installation method.

“The United States has over 2.2 million miles of underground drinking water pipes, with a significant portion reaching the end of their 75 to 100 year life. The cost of replacing half of these pipes at the lower range cost of $1 million per mile would therefore require municipalities to come up with $1.1 trillion. And this estimate is certainly low,” he said.

“Losing $6 billion a year, it would take nearly 200 years for the current losses to equal the cost of replacement.”

Compounding this, many older municipalities are “cash-strapped” as it is, he said.

A pipe diverts water into the C&O Canal in Cabin John, Md., on March 5, 2026. Most U.S. water pipes are between 45 and 100 years old, and many contain toxic elements such as lead and copper, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Heather Diehl/Getty Images

Outside of federal assistance, Stollman said, state and municipal officials will likely need to raise utility prices to cover the improvements.

“This doesn’t mean that this [pipe changing] shouldn’t be done. But utilities will likely have to raise the cost of water more than 7 cents [per] gallon,” he said.

The soaring cost of water bills is already a concern for many. Since 2022, water bills have increased across the board.

In the Midwest, bills were higher than the national average, but the Mid-Atlantic region saw the greatest year-over-year increase in 2024 at 9.5 percent, according to a Bank of America analysis.

Bluefield Research observed in 2025 that U.S. water and sewer bills had risen 24 percent over the previous five years.

“The cost of maintaining and upgrading water infrastructure continues to rise, and these costs are being passed down to ratepayers,” Megan Bondar, an analyst at Bluefield Research, said in a press release.

Workers with the East Bay Municipal Utility District install a new water pipe in Oakland, Calif., on April 22, 2021. The Environmental Protection Agency issued a final rule in 2024 requiring water systems nationwide to identify and replace lead pipes within 10 years. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Down The Drain

Neno Duplan, CEO of Locus Technologies, said recent federal infrastructure funding “is helpful but insufficient to fully modernize century-old networks nationwide.”

Duplan has extensive experience with surface and subsurface hydrology. He told The Epoch Times that the full elimination of U.S. pipe leakage is neither “technically feasible nor economically rational.”

He said utilities optimize around what he called an “economic level of leakage,” balancing repair costs with water value.

He believes the most pressing investment need isn’t leaky water pipes, but resilient source protection, advanced treatment, and contamination mitigation.

That said, Duplan said the trillions of gallons seeping from American water pipes come at a high price tag.

“The direct impact of leakage is economic: higher operating costs, rate pressure, and occasional localized service interruptions,” he said.

Water lost from pipes isn’t gone entirely, but generally finds its way back into the hydrologic cycle via soil infiltration, aquifer recharge, or surface flow.

“The real issue is not physical loss of water molecules. The real issue is loss of treated, pressurized, potable water service and the economic and energy waste associated with producing water that never reaches a paying customer,” he said.

Reverse osmosis pressure vessels treat wastewater at the Groundwater Replenishment System, the world’s largest wastewater recycling plant, in Fountain Valley, Calif., on July 20, 2022. In its 2025 infrastructure report card, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. wastewater management a D+ due to the ongoing battle to replace U.S. water pipes. Mario Tama/Getty Images

While Duplan doesn’t expect the water hemorrhaging from America’s pipes to create scarcity on its own, he said it creates problems with delivery reliability and pressure management.

“Infrastructure failure can prevent treated water from reaching customers even when the raw water supply is adequate,” he said.

California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois account for more than one-third of all infrastructure-related water losses, according to Bluefield Research.

While states including California and Texas have taken steps to standardize reporting and validation requirements for utility companies, many “still lack accurate, validated data—hindering transparency, performance benchmarking, and corrective action,” Bondar said in a press release.

Contamination is also a growing concern, which can increase water stress by reducing available freshwater.

“A far larger systemic threat to U.S. water security is contamination, because contaminated water requires energy-intensive treatment before it can be returned to beneficial use,” Duplan said. “Treatment, remediation, and advanced purification are capital and energy-intensive processes. That is where the true risk and cost lie.”

Duplan believes U.S. water supplies face the cumulative challenges of “aging assets, energy-intensive treatment, contamination risks, and allocation management under climatic variability.”

A car passes a burst water pipe damaged by strong winds and heavy rain from Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, N.C., on Sept. 14, 2018. Replacing aging water pipes can cost between $1 million and $4 million per mile, depending on pipe size, location, and installation method, according to experts. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

In January, the United Nations said the current state of water “crisis” in many countries and cities has become the new normal.

“The patterns observed around the world are not those of a system struggling through a temporary crisis,” the agency wrote. “They indicate that many key renewable water systems have crossed thresholds where full restoration is no longer realistic, even with large investments.”

Cities Take Action

Since 2016, new federal rules and local investment programs have reshaped how cities track and upgrade water infrastructure. Revisions to the EPA’s lead and copper rule finalized in 2021 required utilities to inventory service line materials by October 2024, shifting the focus toward identifying pipe materials—especially lead—rather than documenting pipe age.

Cities have also expanded replacement efforts. In Baltimore, where pipes average roughly 75 to 80 years old, about 15 miles of mains are replaced or rehabilitated each year.

Milwaukee maintains about 2,000 miles of mains dating to 1873 and plans to replace 65,000 lead service lines by 2037.

In Philadelphia, where some pipes date back to 1824, about 20 miles are replaced annually.

Meanwhile, Phoenix reported more than 480,000 waterline services in a 2024 inventory and no lead lines, while San Antonio is shifting toward condition-based pipe replacement across its roughly 9,000-mile network.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 18:05

North Korean Operatives Infiltrating U.S. Companies Through Remote Tech Jobs

North Korean operatives are quietly working inside U.S. companies through remote technology jobs, funneling millions of dollars back to Pyongyang and potentially gaining access to sensitive corporate systems, according to investigators and U.S. officials, according to NBC News.

The scheme relies on workers posing as American job applicants using stolen identities and fake credentials to secure high-paying remote roles, particularly in software development and artificial intelligence. Authorities warn the tactic allows the regime to bypass international sanctions while embedding operatives inside Western companies.

An investigation by the Virginia-based cybersecurity firm Nisos found that suspected North Korean IT workers apply to thousands of jobs using fabricated résumés and multiple online personas. Once hired, the workers often operate from overseas — frequently from China — while U.S.-based facilitators help maintain the illusion that they are located domestically.

These facilitators run so-called “laptop farms,” where company-issued computers are physically kept in the United States and remotely accessed by workers abroad. Investigators say the workers also coordinate applications, interviews, and references within tightly organized teams to increase their chances of being hired.

NBC News writes that the scheme has expanded rapidly since the rise of remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic, which made it easier for overseas workers to obtain jobs without appearing in person. Authorities say the salaries — sometimes exceeding $300,000 per worker — are largely sent back to the regime of Kim Jong Un, helping fund North Korea’s weapons and ballistic missile programs.

U.S. officials estimate the operation now affects hundreds of companies and generates hundreds of millions of dollars annually for the North Korean government.

Investigators say some operatives hold multiple jobs simultaneously, applying to dozens of roles a day and coordinating through organized networks that track applications and interviews. In some cases, the workers are accused of stealing proprietary data, cryptocurrency, or sensitive technical information while employed. Officials warn that even after the workers are discovered and fired, they may leave behind hidden system access that could later be exploited, raising broader national security concerns.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 17:40

The Greatest Risk For The Global Economy Is Stagflation Driven By Governments, Not Oil

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The current oil price forward curve shows that the current global energy shock may be significant but short-lived. The forward curve presents a steep disinflationary trend to $80 per barrel by the end of 2026. Markets are discounting a short war with limited impact on supply but immediate ripple effects on markets and importing economies.

In the worst case, a new energy shock triggered by war with Iran would bring stagflation pressures across the global economy, especially in the economies that have been unable to strengthen their energy supply chains since 2022, like the European Union, which is still in a low-growth environment subject to significant impact from energy shocks. Even if the conflict is short‑lived, the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure has made the oil market go from an oversupply of 4 million barrels per day, according to the IEA, to a tight balance, as shipping routes come under pressure.

The Strait of Hormuz carries almost 25% of seaborne oil exports and a large share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, which makes it the most sensitive energy route. However, 80% of the traffic through the strait goes to Asia, mostly China. That is why the Chinese government has halted all refined product exports from China, trying to limit the risk of supply constraints.

We must also remember that $100 a barrel today is not equivalent to $100 per barrel in 2008. In current dollar terms, the 2008 oil crisis would only trigger at $190 per barrel. Adjusting for inflation is important.

Non-OPEC supply is also a differential factor from other crises, as it has increased significantly since 2008, contributing to a more stable market despite rising prices. The current energy shock is entirely different from 2008 for the United States.

In 2008, the United States production stood at barely 5 million barrels per day. Today, the US is the largest oil producer in the world at 13.7 million barrels per day.

In 2008, dry natural gas output was around 56 billion cubic feet per day. It is projected to reach 106 billion cubic feet daily in 2026. Natural gas energy independence exists in the US, and with the inclusion of Canada and Mexico, North America’s oil independence is nearly complete.

Even considering all these differences compared with other instances, an energy shock would immediately increase fuel prices at the pump but also raise the cost of electricity, heating, fertilizers, plastics, chemicals, and many manufactured goods that depend on petrochemical inputs.

These secondary price effects may quickly feed into consumer and producer inflation, even if other disinflationary factors mitigate the overall CPI impact.

In energy‑importing economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, and parts of Latin America, higher fuel bills will likely hit households that are already suffering from persistent inflationary pressures due to uncontrolled government spending and money printing.

For countries like Pakistan, which relies heavily on imported LNG, and several Southeast Asian nations, the shock could trigger a relevant balance‑of‑payments stress, currency depreciation, and even the risk of rationing as fiscal buffers are exhausted.

The current level of US dollar reserves of emerging economies is elevated, but not enough to entirely offset the impact of an energy crisis on the purchasing power of their currencies.

If governments decide to “combat” the energy crisis by increasing spending and subsidies, which is the same as printing money, the macroeconomic impact would be stagflationary: higher inflation with weaker or no growth.

The biggest risk for inflation will not be the impact of energy prices only, but the response from governments if they decide to spend and print their way out of the war’s impact.

The most significant risk for the global economy would come if central banks decided to hike rates due to energy price spikes. Hiking rates would halt investment, consumption, and job creation and have no impact on prices driven by an external geopolitical factor.

If the war continues for an extended period, it could lead to a revision in global growth forecasts, which were already weak for 2026. The IMF had already estimated a slowdown to around 3% or less, and the Iran‑related shock may mean tighter financial conditions.

A long war could lead to a domino of recessions in energy-importing regions, while resource-rich exporters would see an economic boost that would not counterbalance the impact on the largest economies, primarily importers.

The greatest risk now is, as always, a domino of policy mistakes.

Developed economies’ governments may feel tempted to spend and print, ignoring the lack of fiscal space and the already persistent inflation created by the errors made during Covid-19 and the political response.

Governments might intensify their deficit spending, and central banks might repeat their mistakes from 2021-2024 by raising rates at the most inopportune time.

Stagflation is an unlikely outcome, but if it arrives, it will be entirely created by policy mistakes from governments and central banks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 17:15

Armor-Piercing Ammo Metal Up 557% As China Chokes Supply, War Demand Surges

Tungsten, used in missiles, tank rounds, armor-piercing ammunition, and some smaller-caliber munitions, has surged in price over the last year as China curbed exports and global supplies tightened.

This is a major concern, as multi-front conflicts - from the Middle East to Eastern Europe - are depleting interceptor missile supplies.

Bloomberg cites new data from commodity price reporting agency Fastmarkets showing tungsten prices have surged to $2,250 per metric ton this month, up 557% since Beijing added certain tungsten products to its export control list in February of last year.

"In my 12 years working across the commodity space and dealing with a lot of weird and wonderful metals, I have never seen a market as tight as tungsten is right now, aside from maybe lithium in 2021," George Heppel, vice president of commodity research, told Bloomberg.

He warned, "This isn't like lithium, where there was a huge pipeline of projects that could come online."

The problem with rare earth metals is that China dominates the global market. It controls roughly 79% of global tungsten mined output, which Western companies rely on heavily.

According to Project Blue, a London-based commodity research firm, manufacturers have been searching for alternative supplies since China significantly tightened export controls last year. Chinese shipments of restricted tungsten products were down about 40% last year, the firm said.

The tungsten squeeze highlights why the Trump administration has been furiously rewriting global supply chains away from China, especially with the push to build out domestic rare earth supply chains critical for the military and semiconductor industries.

"The industrial base is desperate for material," said Almonty Industries CEO Lewis Black, whose firm is set to begin commercial production at the site of an idled mine in South Korea and is seeking to develop the first U.S. tungsten mine in a decade.

"We've never been in a situation where the market is determining the price," Black said. "So we don't really know where it's going to settle."

One year ago, Black warned his customer base was in a "state of disbelief" amid China's tightening of global supplies.

"It's the warning shot, because we cannot exist without it," Black told Bloomberg's Annie Lee in an interview at the time.

He noted: "Our economy, manufacturing, defense, everything, is so dependent on it. And yet, Russia, China and North Korea have about 90% of the output."

Shares of Almonty in the U.S. are up 127% this year, as the market is waking up to the fact that this company is expected to become one of the largest tungsten producers outside China.

Almonty is also developing a U.S. tungsten project in Montana that it says could become the first U.S. tungsten mine in about a decade.

Military-related tungsten demand is set to surge this year because the metal is used in missile components and other weaponry deployed in the conflict zones of the Middle East and eastern Ukraine. Major U.S. defense companies have already signaled to the Trump administration that missile production will quadruple, putting even more pressure on critical metals.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 16:50

"...The Entire Internet Has Doomer Fatigue"

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"I can tell the entire internet has doomer fatigue."

- Catturd on X

The mysterious financial repo markets - which practically no one outside of banking understands (and even some banking insiders don't) - started showing some signs of stress recently (forward rates spiking: 1Y1Y SOFR has risen nearly 50 bps in two weeks, signaling growing concern among dealers and investors about future funding costs); though not near the level they did in September 2019, just before You-Know-What sucker-punched the world with lockdowns, stolen elections, and fake vaccines. Half of America still hasn’t got its head straight... and here we go again.

The private equity outfits, like giant BlackRock, are wobbling so hard that they had to “gate redemptions” — meaning, investors can’t pull their money out of funds going dark with dubious collateral. It’s exactly what sparks panics. Money can only stand so much unreality. The Rube Goldberg machine of finance — a scaffold of insane complexity designed to bamboozle the rubes — is threatening to fly apart. The world only needs so many pre-owned yachts.

Plus, there’s a war on, which has disrupted the regular flow of the world’s primary resource: oil.

That’s the really-real side of the picture. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

You’ve got to wonder how much additional pounding the lunatic state of Iran can take.

It’s not clear who is even in charge there. Iran’s supposed foreign minister, one Aras Araghchi, is suddenly offering to give up those 440 kilos of 60-percent enriched uranium that are at the heart of this quarrel.

Sounds a little surrender-ish, though he made the offer with a certain defiant bluster. Let’s see where that goes.

Maybe the war will be over sooner than you thought.

Watch and listen starting at 13:00-minute Mark:

With all this in motion, things slip-sliding all over the place, the week ahead may be one in which nobody can think straight or get a straight answer.

Here’s something to chew on: do you think Great Britain is our dear friend because we speak the same language? Great Britain has been allowing Iran’s ruling Revolutionary Guard to park its money in London for half a century while Lloyd’s offers jacked-up insurance rates to all those tankers faring through the Strait of Hormuz.

This dynamic has made world oil up to 15-percent more expensive since the 1970s, and Britain’s banks have been creaming off the premium all the while. Trillions. Mr. Trump is putting an end to that racket while he also terminates Iran’s ability to export Jihad thuggery throughout the Middle East. That’s the meaning behind the Abraham Accords and the new Board of Peace set up to figure out Gaza — and probably to replace the broken United Nations as a mediating force in the region’s long-running conflicts.

Mr. Trump is also sending a message to China: the US will have something to say about the flow of oil going there out of the Persian Gulf, which is to say most of China’s imported oil. (The US imports relatively little oil out of the Persian Gulf, two to three percent of total US oil consumption which is 20-million barrels a day.) This is pretty serious power politics, but notice that China has not started World War Three over it. Mr. Trump and Xi are still talking, and are scheduled to meet in Beijing in April. Meanwhile, Xi is having plenty of trouble of his own with twitchy PLA generals, a staggering deflationary export economy, and a lot of angry young people thrown out of work.

One thing our country will not get a straight answer on this week is the SAVE Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune made noises over the weekend about staging a half-assed “debate” on the floor, a demi-filibuster. . . then holding a guaranteed-to-fail cloture vote. . . making it impossible to reach a place where the bill might be subject to a simple majority vote. The procedural bullshit at issue is surely a challenge for the general voting public to understand. The bottom line is that Majority Leader Thune is entirely in-charge of the filibuster process and could make it work to advantage the SAVE Act if he wanted to. He could call for a full, “standing” filibuster that would require the bill’s opponents to explain themselves — that is, to explain why they prefer election fraud.

So, for now, the Save Act will fail to pass. The public will register the failure, if not the twisted route that got it there, and they will be mighty pissed-off. The really interesting part is what happens after all this is acted out, especially Senator Thune’s comic attempt to explain why he did this. And especially if, in the weeks just ahead, the nation watches federal indictments rain down for election fraud in Georgia, Wisconsin, and other states where so many weird things happened right before our eyes in November, 2020, 2022, and 2024. Sometime after that, the SAVE Act will come up for a vote again, and with a vengeance!

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 16:25

Guess What Ireland's President Said About St. Patrick's Day...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Irish President Catherine Connolly marked her first St. Patrick’s Day in office with a message that reframed Ireland’s patron saint as a symbol for open borders and ‘global citizenship’, urging the Irish to embrace migrants amid ongoing surges in arrivals that have sparked nationwide tensions.

In a video address, Connolly drew parallels between St. Patrick’s enslavement and modern migration, calling for hospitality toward those displaced by war and persecution—conveniently overlooking how mass influxes of economic migrants have overwhelmed Irish communities and resources.

The full message, delivered against a backdrop of Irish and other flags, emphasized St. Patrick’s story as “a reminder of the resilience and courage of migrants, the invaluable contributions that they have made, and continue to make, to the countries they now call home, sometimes even in the face of great adversity.”

NEW - Ireland's President urges "global citizens" to acknowledge their "shared responsibility" to invoke St. Patrick’s spirit, by standing in solidarity with migrants and to recognise "the invaluable contributions" they make.pic.twitter.com/Tk98m2eUiX

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 16, 2026

Connolly went on: “Patrick’s story speaks not only to the Ireland of the 5th century, but to the millions still subjected to trafficking, forced labour and displacement today.”

She added, “As we recall the life of Patrick, we invoke his spirit and acknowledge our shared responsibilities as global citizens. We stand in solidarity with those who find themselves in vulnerable and dangerous circumstances.”

The president wrapped up by stressing, “Patrick’s story invites us to respond with hospitality and kindness to those suffering the consequences of war and displacement, those fleeing their countries because of persecution or violence.”

This pivot comes as Ireland ramps up immigration reforms in 2026, including higher salary thresholds for work permits, digitalized processes, and faster citizenship paths for those granted international protection—moves that critics say prioritize foreigners over native Irish struggling with housing shortages and cultural erosion.

The government’s Budget 2026 poured funds into modernizing the system, aiming to streamline legal access for more migrants while protests against accommodation centers continue to simmer across the country.

The message quickly drew fire on X, where users slammed it as a betrayal of Irish identity in favor of globalist talking points.

One poster fired back: “The spirit is St Patrick? Wasn’t he the guy who ‘Chased the SNAKES out of Ireland?!?’ Don’t you see the similarity here?”

Another echoed: “St. Patrick chasing the snakes out of Ireland is not a metaphor for being friends and surrendering Ireland to foreign invaders.”

These reactions highlight growing frustration with leaders who seem more eager to virtue-signal on the world stage than protect their own country’s sovereignty and traditions.

Connolly’s address also touched on Ireland’s neutral stance and commitment to peace, claiming the nation is “uniquely placed” to address global challenges due to its history of famine and migration. But such rhetoric rings hollow as domestic unrest over immigration boils over, with recent changes easing pathways for newcomers while native concerns go unheeded.

This address reeks of complete capitulation. St. Patrick’s Day is supposed to honor Irish patriotism, not serve as a platform for diluting national pride under the guise of “hospitality.” If Ireland wants to preserve its heritage, it’s time to chase out the globalist snakes eroding it from within.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 15:45

Nvidia Shares Pump & Dump After CEO Jensen Expects "At Least" $1 Trillion In Revenue By 2027

Summary: 

• CEO Jensen began discussing all things AI around 1520 ET.

• CEO Jensen said the data center AI opportunity will grow from half a trillion dollars to $1 trillion by 2027. CEO Jensen said, "Computing demand has increased by 1 million times in the last two years."

• A graphic on screen indicated that 60% of the business is hyperscalers.

• CEO Jensen said, "We are now a computing platform that runs all of AI."

• CEO Jensen said, "Our cost per token is the lowest in the world."

• Nvidia unveiled the new Vera Rubin program.

*   *   * 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is speaking at the GTC 2026 in San Jose, California, about the company's AI expansion.

Huang said the data center AI opportunity is growing from about half a trillion dollars to more than $1 trillion by 2027. He said that 60% of the company's business comes from hyperscalers, adding that 40% is everything else, clouds, enterprise, robotics, gaming, supercomputing, etc.

The graphic shows that much of the demand is driven by model builders and AI companies such as Anthropic, xAI, Gemini, and OpenAI.

"We are now a computing platform that runs all of AI," the CEO said. 

The presentation initially sent Nvidia shares up as much as 4.8%, while the Nasdaq also moved higher, but most of those gains have now been erased.

A round trip for Nvidia shares.

This. 

This NVDA is hysterical

First it's red bar *NVIDIA CEO SEES 2027 AT LEAST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS OF REVENUE

Now it's $1T for 2025-27.

Now look at the revenue line from bloomberg table...

ummm $216bn 2025 + 364b 2026 + $470b 2027 = $1.05T

did Jensen just guide down?? pic.twitter.com/nLzEmziuXP

— Paulo Macro (@PauloMacro) March 16, 2026

Other highlights of Jensen's presentation include...

Jensen says, "computing demand has increased by 1 million times in the last 2 years." Hints at the current memory shortage created by the AI buildout of data entry. 

On Tokens per watt: Jensen said, "Nvidia AI GPUs that can quickly get through more tokens than the competition." He noted, "This is your revenue. Our cost per token is the lowest in the world."

Nvidia unveils the New Vera Rubin program. It's the company's latest AI platform for AI data centers that is "vertically integrated completely with software." 

Watch Jensen live here:

Developing...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 15:32

Cuba Suffers "Total Disconnection" Of Power Grid; Trump Says Deal With Havana 'Pretty Soon'

Summary:

• Cuba's National Electrical System suffered a "total disconnection" on Monday afternoon.

• Trump said on Sunday that he expects a U.S.-Cuba deal very soon.

• Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel admitted on Friday that talks between Havana and Washington are underway.

• Cuban fuel supplies are dangerously low amid Trump's crude import blockade.

*  *  *

Cuba's National Electrical System has suffered what the country's Energy Ministry called a "total disconnection," and the causes are being investigated. This comes as Trump's blockade of crude oil imports to the Caribbean island has reduced fuel stockpiles to dangerously low levels.

"A total disconnection of the SEN has occurred. The causes are being investigated, and protocols for restoration are being activated," the Energy Ministry said on X around 1400 ET.

Earlier, we reported that Trump is in talks with Cuba and that a deal could be reached soon.

Over the weekend, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel publicly admitted for the first time that Havana was in talks with Washington.

*  *  * 

As Aldgra Fredly detailed earlier for The Epoch Times, U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 15 that the United States is in talks with Cuba and expects to reach a deal with the communist-ruled country soon.

Tourists ride in an old American car used as a taxi along a quiet avenue in Havana on Feb. 8, 2026.Adalberto Roque/AFP via Getty Images

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that "something will happen with Cuba pretty quickly," and that Washington will decide on Cuba after dealing with the war in Iran.

Trump on Jan. 11 told Cuba to strike a deal after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a Jan. 3 operation. Cuba has long been a close ally of Maduro's regime and has relied on Venezuela's oil supply for decades.

After Maduro's ouster, interim Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodríguez redirected oil deliveries to the United States.

"Cuba also wants to make a deal, and I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we ​have to do," Trump told reporters on March 15. "And so, we're talking ​to Cuba, but we're going to do Iran before Cuba."

On Jan. 29, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on any country that "directly or indirectly provides oil to Cuba," a move that exacerbated fuel shortages in the Caribbean island nation.

In his order, Trump accused the Cuban regime of aligning itself with "hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors," including Russia, China, and Iran, as well as U.S.-designated foreign terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez said on March 13 that his government has been negotiating with U.S. officials to identify and resolve any bilateral issues between the two nations.

"These conversations have been aimed at seeking solutions, through dialogue, to bilateral differences that exist between the two nations," Bermúdez said, according to a statement posted by Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla on social media. "There are international factors that have facilitated these exchanges."

A man pushes a tricycle past a jeep sporting a wheel cover featuring an image of the US flag in Havana on Jan. 23, 2026. Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

Bermúdez said his officials have expressed that negotiations must be held "on the basis of equality and respect for the political systems of both states," as well as their sovereignty.

"This is a matter that unfolds as part of a very sensitive process that is conducted with seriousness and responsibility, as it affects the bilateral relations between the two nations and requires enormous efforts to find solutions and create spaces for understanding that allow us to move away from confrontation," he said.

Cuban leader Miguel Diaz-Canel consoles relatives of some of the 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, during their funeral at Colon cemetery in Havana on Jan. 16, 2026. Adalberto Roque/AFP via Getty Images

Trump said last week that Cuba currently faces severe humanitarian challenges amid disruptions in imported oil and is eager to negotiate with the United States. He also said there could be a "friendly takeover" of the nation, but also said that "it may not be a friendly takeover."

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 15:25

Silver's Endgame: Almost Too Obvious

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

The case for silver is now almost too obvious.

Silver’s Fat Pitch

Like many Americans, I grew up playing a fair amount of baseball. Part of this involved trying to hit a little round ball with the equivalent of a modified, wooden stick.

Like asset prices and market forces, this little white ball, thrown by a pitcher 60 feet away, could sink, curve or speed by you in bewildering and often embarrassing ways.

Sometimes, however, we hitters of that ball would be blessed with what is called a “fat pitch”—that is, a ball thrown so comfortably straight, clear and trackable that it was effectively impossible to miss.

Below, I’ll show why the set-up we are currently seeing in the global silver market is precisely that: A fat pitch.

Prior Silver Curve Balls

Of course, silver markets, like baseball players, have also seen a lot of curve balls and crazy swings.

We saw recent versions of this in December of 2025, when the COMEX price-fixers, with a little help from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, or CME, raised margin prices to force a mass-selloff (i.e. price-fall) of the metal.

When that pitch failed, the COMEX threw another, far more effective margin hike (or “curve ball”) in late January of 2026 to openly engineer the single-worst silver price crash in 44 years.

The reasons for these tricky pitches at the COMEX were obvious. The big players (i.e., banks) going net-short silver were literally dying under the weight of silver’s rising price moves.

Not so coincidently, the CME/COMEX then initiated another, more effective, margin hike and thereby bailed the insider banks out of the mother of all short-squeezes.

There was no price discovery, but blatant price manipulation, as fixed/rigged as the 1919 World Series. (Ironically, both the CME and the cheating, 1919 White Sox hailed from Chicago…)

But as I argued in January, such a rigged game was nothing new. The COMEX has been playing it for decades, from defeating the Hunt Brothers’ silver bid in the 1980’s (with a sell-only trick) to crushing the “Reddit mob’s” attempt to bring honest demand (and pricing) to silver in 2021.

In short, the COMEX, and the banks who effectively self-regulate it, threw a lot of curve balls which were difficult to beat.

But as we enter the 2026 macro playing field, it is the COMEX itself which is about to strike out, and this bodes extremely well for silver.

Here’s why.

Silver: About to Hit a Homerun

The set-up for silver is now nothing short of extraordinary. In fact, it is unprecedented.

At 30,000 feet, the big picture remains the same. That is, as currencies are debased to monetize unsustainable sovereign debt levels, monetary metals like silver outshine dying paper currencies.

It’s really that simple.

But the more nuanced, and often misunderstood, tailwinds for silver are a bit more complicated, though entirely clear once you know where to look.

And the first place to look is at the COMEX itself, where silver (like gold) has been manipulated downwards for decades. We’ve covered the motives, means and symptoms of this COMEX price fix in greater detail elsewhere.

What is worth noting here, however, is critical. That is, once the physical silver leaves the COMEX, the artificial price-fixing charade ends, and silver naturally rips higher.

Paper Claims vs. Physical Demand

Traditionally, for example, paper claims on silver (and gold) never resulted in actual delivery out of the COMEX. Instead, the contracts were simply rolled over or cash-settled.

But those days are ending.

As of this writing, there are more paper claims (“open interest) on the COMEX silver exchange than there are actual ounces of “registered” silver to meet delivery. In fact, there’s only about 80 million ounces on hand to meet over 570 million ounces of delivery demand.

That’s a levered mismatch of 7:1 at the COMEX.

If we then consider the larger silver market itself, including ETF silver, derivative claims, futures contracts, etc., many analysts in the commodity space are quoting the number of paper silver claims to actual silver ounces at a ratio of 350:1.

Read that last line again.

No Chairs Left

If one were to think of the paper silver market as a game of musical chairs in which the “music” represents the actual amount of physical silver available and the “chairs” represents the number of paper claims on it, the supply & demand ratios above make it mathematically clear that once the music stops, there’ll be very chairs left standing with silver.

Or stated more simply, percolating physical silver demand is about to hit a supply shock, which means silver is poised to skyrocket.

And if you look at the COMEX silver flows, you’ll quickly discover that the music is slowing down.

January applications for silver deliveries at the COMEX, for example, came in at 40M ounces, which was 40X the normal delivery rate.

A more recent delivery took 20% off the COMEX inventory in a week. (I have no proof, but I’m guessing the buyer here was JP Morgan…)

Looming Delivery Failure

At this exit pace, it’s at least plausible that the COMEX could see a bald failure of physical delivery within 90 days.

In such an event, the COMEX silver trade would be reduced to a cash-only trade, a possibility I warned of in January.

But this, of course, would only happen if one assumed the COMEX wouldn’t declare some kind of emergency in the interim, which we can be almost sure they will…

Nevertheless, the screws are now undeniably tightening on this New York exchange in ways we’ve never seen before.

This classic mismatch of supply and demand in the silver space is unprecedented, and whether the price-fixers in New York like it or not, supply and demand forces still matter, and they can be powerful forces…

Supply Deficits Colliding with Rising Demand

For example, and as most silver investors know, this metal has seen five consecutive years of supply deficits at 200M ounces/year, now aggregating to a deficit of nearly 1 billion ounces. China’s recent export restrictions for silver, moreover, aren’t helping supply flows.

Meanwhile, in the silver future’s market, we are seeing backwardation, a fancy way of saying that current prices are higher than future prices, which is a screaming signal of high demand colliding with low supply.

These factors help explain why the current lease rate for silver is at 8% levels, whereas for the bulk of my entire investing career, the lease rate had never surpassed 1%– until now.

Combine such evidence of a supply shock with silver’s rising industrial demand (60% of silver’s demand is industrial) in everything from solar panels to the missiles now cris-crossing Middle Eastern skies, and we see all the makings of a historical price hike in the metal.

After all, the silver supply can’t be magically increased with just the touch of a button. 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct of other mining.

This means there’s no silver supply miracle on the horizon.

And Then There’s War…

What IS filling our horizon, however, is the fog of war and hence the fog of oil. Supply shocks matter to oil just as much as they do to any asset, including silver.

As crude oil rises thanks to tightening flows in the Strait of Hormuz, so does inflation, and for every $10.00 rise in oil, we see a 0.1% rise in even our otherwise openly bogus inflation scale.

And as inflation rises, as it will, the monetary profile of silver just gets another tailwind as an anti-fiat metal.

Back to Baseball

Which brings me back to my original point and metaphor.

When one combines silver’s monetary profile with its rising industrial demand in a backdrop of historical supply deficits, COMEX delivery failures, rising lease prices, futures market backwardation, and all that is inherently backward as to war and rising oil, we arrive at what comes to nothing more than an unprecedented “fat pitch” for silver.

Batter up.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 14:40

Marjorie Taylor Greene Tells CNN That MAGA Feels '100% Betrayed' By Iran War

Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has become a big fan of CNN since her departure from Congress since, we're guessing, FOX and Newsmax aren't excited to give her a platform of late. On Monday, she appeared on The Situation Room to once again declare doom and gloom for the MAGA movement… with a little help from the host.

During the interview, host Pamela Brown asked what she’s hearing from Trump supporters in Georgia regarding Iran, playing up the Israel angle. 

“Are you hearing from them that they believe President Trump is doing this on behalf of Israel?” she asked. “Bring us there.”

Greene, who has been a thorn in Trump's side since leaving office, painted a picture of a Republican base that is fractured and angry over the ongoing military operation in Iran, and 

“It’s actually very split. And it’s split along generational lines,” she said.

“Many of the older Americans from the Baby Boomer generation that watch Fox News all day long very much believe the talking points on Fox News, and they have spent decades of their lives convinced that fighting these wars is the right thing to do,” she explained.

She then pointed to the next wave of voters, who see the issue through a completely different lens. 

“But the younger generations - I’m Gen X - millennials and Gen Z are very much against this war,” Greene continued. “And so, when you talk to people on the ground, that’s how it comes across. It’s very generational. And the younger generations are completely against it.”

Marjorie Taylor Greene: "It's turned into some perverted, deranged version of MAGA now that nobody wants" pic.twitter.com/OceBnJpLnp

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 16, 2026

That sentiment echoes something that has been brewing in conservative politics since Trump entered the political arena. Younger voters inside the America First movement tend to view foreign wars as expensive distractions from domestic priorities. Greene leaned straight into that argument.

“We want world peace. We want good trade. We want a great economy. We want a lower inflation, lower the cost of housing,” she said. “And younger generations want to be able to afford their American lives, and they don’t want their taxpayer dollars shipped off to — and you can fill in any foreign country.”

She emphasized that the frustration extends beyond any one ally or region.

“We will take Israel out of it. They don’t want their money sent overseas,” Greene said. “And you know what? They’re right for saying this.”

She even argued that the military operation in Iran is a betrayal of the movement that carried Donald Trump back into the White House.

“This is absolutely absurd,” she said. “And it’s 100 percent a betrayal to what MAGA was supposed to be when we voted in 2024, and it’s turned into some perverted, deranged version of MAGA now that nobody wants.”

“And a lot of people are just like, this doesn’t make sense,” she added.

Polling on Iran has been mixed.

A CNN poll earlier this month showed that while a majority of voters (59%) opposed military action in Iran, a whopping 77% of Republicans approved of the decision, which hardly suggests the party is divided. However, there may be some truth to what Greene said.

Within the Republican Party, there is a sharp divide between those who say they consider themselves part of the “Make America Great Again” movement and those who do not, a division that appears largely linked to trust in the president. MAGA Republicans are 30 points more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they strongly approve of the decision to take military action, 34 points likelier to say it will reduce the threat Iran poses to the US and nearly 50 points more likely to say they have a great deal of trust in Trump to make the right decisions about US use of force in Iran.

However, more recent surveys show that Americans have been warming up to the Iran strikes. A Washington Post poll from last week showed the country was more evenly divided on the strikes, with a plurality, 42% supporting the strikes, 40% opposing them, and 17% indicating they were unsure - a stunning change from its previous survey when 52% were opposed, 39% supported, and just 9% were unsure. Republican support for continuing the strikes even increased by 12 points. Fox News similarly reported a more even split of 50% support and 50% opposition, with 84% of Republicans supporting.

Yet, a Quinnipiac poll revealed that support changes drastically when it comes to boots on the ground - which 2,200 Marines may (or may not) provide. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 14:20

America's Nuclear Fuel Chain Gains As General Matter Earns $4.2 Billion Of Support From Ex-Im Bank

This past weekend saw a major announcement from the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial in Tokyo, with the U.S. Export-Import Bank issuing letters of interest for $4.2 billion of capital for Japanese and South Korean reactor owners to purchase low-enriched uranium (LEU) from U.S. enrichment company General Matter. 

The US Export-Import Bank advanced plans for up to $4.2 billion in financing to support Japanese and South Korean nuclear operators’ purchase of enriched fuel from California-based General Matter https://t.co/DxwnQ1BY8q

— Bloomberg (@business) March 15, 2026

The Ex-Im Bank will support up to $2.4 billion for Japanese utilities and $1.8 billion for South Korean utilities looking to purchase enriched uranium from the U.S. as opposed to their long-term supplier, Russia. 

This is part of a larger ongoing effort on two different fronts, with the U.S. looking to secure funding to start up the domestic nuclear fuel chain within its borders by securing foreign investments, as well as the U.S. and its allies looking to diversify from eastern suppliers of critical materials, including enriched uranium. 

The U.S. finally seems to be getting serious about supporting a significant build-out of fuel chain capacity within its borders, as we have well since documented the extremely restricted bottleneck that is the supply of nuclear fuel in America.

General Matter recently was awarded $900 million from the DOE to support capacity build-out for producing high-assay LEU (HALEU) at its planned facility in Paducah, Kentucky. The company has yet to make any serious progress at their site, but has initiated initial discussions with the regulator, the NRC, and has announced additional sites that will support centrifuge construction and potentially additional enrichment facilities.

The U.S. is pursuing more self-reliance on a supply of enriched uranium with three other major companies. The first is with the existing commercial facility in New Mexico, owned and operated by Urenco, a company supported by a consortium of European nations including the U.K., Netherlands, and German utilities.

The second is the only facility in the U.S. currently producing HALEU at roughly 1,000 kilograms per year, owned by Centrus Energy in Ohio. We've long detailed their progress with awards from the DOE and ongoing build-out of their enrichment facility. For comparison to the new funding support for General Matter, the backlog for Centrus's order book currently stands at $2.3 billion. 

The third is Orano, backed by the French government, with their future LEU production facility planned in Tennessee under Project Ike.

General Matter has come out of nowhere to take the U.S. enrichment landscape by storm, supported by Scott Nolan from Founders Fund, along with Peter Thiel sitting on the board. Company leadership was also notably present in the Oval Office as President Trump signed last year's set of nuclear executive orders. Observers should expect to find General Matter high on the list of leaders within the American enrichment space. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 13:45

SNAP Recipients Claim Trump Trying To "Destabilize Food Access", Sue Feds Over Junk Food Ban

The Make America Healthy Again agenda just found its first serious legal challenger. This week, five food stamp recipients filed suit in Washington, D.C., federal court demanding the right to spend taxpayer-funded SNAP benefits on candy, soda, and energy drinks. 

The plaintiffs filed the lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) over its growing list of "food restriction" waivers, which Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins began approving back in May 2025. Since then, 22 states have signed on, each with their own specific list of banned items — generally soda, energy drinks, candy, and pre-packaged desserts. 

Both Rollins and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have championed the waivers as a concrete step toward addressing chronic disease and redirecting taxpayer money toward genuinely nutritious food. 

“The Trump Administration is unified in improving the health of our nation. America’s governors have proudly answered the call to innovate by improving nutrition programs, ensuring better choices while respecting the generosity of the American taxpayer,” Rollins said last year.

“Each waiver submitted by the states and signed is yet another step closer to fulfilling President Trump’s promise to Make America Healthy Again.”

The lawsuit claims they had no right to do this. 

The five plaintiffs. residents of Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Tennessee, and West Virginia, and represented by the law firm Shinder Cantor Lerner, argue in their complaint that the restrictions "destabilize food access" for SNAP participants in the 22 affected states.

They claim the USDA exceeded its legal authority by approving the waivers without soliciting public input, establishing proper evaluation metrics, or engaging those directly impacted by the waivers first, in accordance with the Administrative Procedure Act.

The lawsuit further contends that the relevant section of the Food and Nutrition Act only authorizes pilot projects designed to "enhance the efficiency" or improve the delivery of benefits — and that banning specific food items accomplishes neither.

“SNAP is a critical lifeline for millions of families and households, and Congress has established clear guardrails for how the program must operate across the country,” Jeffrey Shinder, founding partner at Shinder Cantor Lerner, claimed in a statement to Newsweek.

“The USDA is attempting to bypass those strict guardrails by empowering states to curtail access to SNAP in ways that will create significant hardship on recipients and retailers. We urge the Court to halt this attack on SNAP, which threatens millions of individuals’ access to essential food assistance nationwide.” 

The plaintiffs claim they or their family members rely on the restricted foods to manage health conditions such as diabetes and allergies, or to obtain energy boosts for daily life.

The claim that sugary drinks and candy are medically necessary for diabetics runs directly counter to established dietary guidance. One plaintiff argues that her state's waiver would restrict her daughter to only three "safe" foods and beverages — one of which is bottled water. 

The plaintiffs also argue that confusion is another problem impacting SNAP recipients.

"We are focused on litigating the case we filed yesterday and securing relief for the plaintiffs already before the Court. At the same time, we remain open to expanding the case to challenge similar waivers in additional states. SNAP serves as an essential support system for millions of families,” added Meegan Hollywood, a partner at the firm.

“The waivers create confusion at checkout and force retailers to apply standards that are vague and unworkable. A program that millions of families rely on cannot operate amid confusion and uncertainty. Our complaint details how these policies are already harming recipients in multiple states and undermining the very families SNAP is meant to support."

That framing assumes junk food is a non-negotiable line item. Recipients who want soda and candy remain free to purchase them — with their own money.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 13:05

"Problem Is Solvable": Airline CEOs Urge Congress To End Shutdown, Pay TSA Workers

The Department of Homeland Security's social media team on X spent the weekend blaming Democrats for the travel chaos unfolding at airports nationwide, as TSA agents failed to report to work during a funding lapse caused by Senate Democrats' refusal to fund the DHS budget without reforms to ICE and Border Patrol.

"Thanks to the Democrats' shutdown, travelers at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport are again seeing MASSIVE security lines this morning," DHS said on X on Saturday. "The Democrats' political games are making spring break travel a NIGHTMARE for Americans as they continue to withhold funding from DHS and refuse to pay our heroic @TSA officers."

Thanks to the Democrats' shutdown, travelers at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport are again seeing MASSIVE security lines this morning.

The Democrats' political games are making spring break travel a NIGHTMARE for Americans as they continue to withhold funding from DHS and… https://t.co/KsChjpcDnJ

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) March 15, 2026

DHS said Sunday that "Airports coast to coast are seeing major delays, HOURS-long security lines, and missed flights because of the Democrats' DHS shutdown."

Airports coast to coast are seeing major delays, HOURS-long security lines, and missed flights because of the Democrats’ DHS shutdown.

SAVE SPRING BREAK. REOPEN DHS NOW. https://t.co/ABeVfNiG2C

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) March 15, 2026

A reader on Sunday evening sent ZeroHedge Tips a photo showing, he said, roughly 200 travelers stuck in line at BWI Airport's international customs, with only two CBP agents staffing the booths while at least a dozen booths sat empty. He added that the Global Entry line had only a handful of passengers, who were waved through quickly, while non-Global Entry travelers were left waiting in what seemed like an hours-long line.

Last weekend, similar travel chaos unfolded at some airports, with TSA lines taking hours just to enter terminals. The disruption prompted ten U.S. airline and aviation heads to pen an open letter to Congress on Sunday, urging lawmakers to resolve the DHS funding dispute.

"That comes as no surprise. Americans—who live in your districts and home states—are tired of long lines at airports, travel delays and flight cancellations caused by shutdown after shutdown. Yet, once again air travel is the political football amid another government shutdown," the chief executive officers of Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Alaska Air Group, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways, and United Parcel Service wrote in the letter.

The executives continued, "It's past time for the government to make sure that TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports, and air traffic controllers are paid for the job they do."

The current political battle has persisted for nearly a month after Senate Democrats refused to fund a DHS budget without reforms to ICE and Border Patrol. Democrats are frustrated that Trump is using the federal government to deport illegal aliens (whom they consider a potential future voting bloc). Democrats would like to see ICE significantly reformed or eliminated, as they view its power as an existential threat to their political party's survivability.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 12:25

DOJ Asks Boasberg To Reconsider Quashing Powell Subpoenas

Update: DOJ lawyers on Monday asked Boasberg to reconsider his order that quashed grand jury subpoenas of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Fox News reports. Prosecutors argue that the subpoena should be allowed when there is even a "reasonable possibility" that the category of materials the government seeks will produce info "relevant to the general subject of the grand jury’s investigation," even when the recipient of said subpoena "proposes a plausible theory of an ulterior motive."

We're guessing Boasberg is just buying time and knows this will eventually be overturned. . 

*  *  *

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Last week, Chief Judge James Boasberg delivered a blow to the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell by tossing out grand jury subpoenas. Boasberg declared the investigation overtly political and coercive, without any criminal predicate. The decision is a rare rejection of a duly issued grand jury subpoena at this stage of an investigation. In my view, he was premature and could face a difficult appeal in In re Grand Jury Subpoenas, Bd. of Governors of the Federal Reserve System v. U.S.

I have previously expressed skepticism about the investigation into Powell and share concerns about the alleged use of the criminal justice system to pressure the Federal Reserve Board. However, the question is when a court can make such a judgment at this stage of the investigation. Prosecutors are generally entitled to make their case and these subpoenas sought potential evidence of waste or corruption.

Boasberg has long been one of the most vocal critics of President Donald Trump on the bench, including a series of orders to stop the deportation of immigrants to El Salvador and, recently, an order for their return. He was also the subject of an ethics complaint by the Administration over statements made at a judicial conference that portrayed President Trump as a threat to the rule of law. (For the record, I opposed the effort to impeach Judge Boasberg).

In the latest controversy, Boasberg rejected the premise of the criminal investigation of Powell:

“The case thus asks: Did prosecutors issue those subpoenas for a proper purpose? The Court finds that they did not. There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will.”

Judge Boasberg quotes Trump’s personal attacks on Powell after he continued to refuse to lower interest rates. These include signature all-caps attacks from the President:

“Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell has done it again!!! He is TOO LATE, and actually, TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID, & TOO POLITICAL, to have the job of Fed Chair. He is costing our Country TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS …. Put another way, ‘Too Late’ is a TOTAL LOSER, and our Country is paying the price!”

Boasberg noted over 100 such postings, including “‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars. He is truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government …. TOO LATE’s an American Disgrace!”

He also noted a menacing statement by the President that, if the Fed does not cut rates, “I may have to force something.”

This is not the first time that the President’s social media postings have been used as evidence against Administration policies in federal cases.

Many of us have criticized the President over personal attacks on judges or other officials.

However, courts generally do not impute an unlawful motive to criminal investigations or prosecutions if there is an otherwise valid purpose or allegation.

Judge Boasberg dismisses any such possibility of a valid purpose, writing:

“The case thus asks: Did prosecutors issue those subpoenas for a proper purpose? The Court finds that they did not. There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will.

On the other side of the scale, the Government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the President. The Court must thus conclude that the asserted justifications for these subpoenas are mere pretexts. It will therefore grant the Board’s Motion to Quash. It will also grant the Board’s Motion to Partially Unseal the Motion to Quash, related briefing, and this Opinion….”

Once again, I do not fault the court for skepticism, but I do have serious concerns over his timing and his own possible bias in issuing such a ruling.

The Administration has an active but still early criminal investigation into the massive spending on renovations to the Federal Reserve building. To that end, the Justice Department served two subpoenas on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, seeking records about the renovations of the Board’s buildings as well as Powell’s prior congressional testimony on those renovations. The Board filed a Motion to Quash, contending that the subpoenas are a raw play to force Powell to resign or to bend to the will of the President.

After reading the Boasberg opinion, my concerns only increased. At every juncture, Judge Boasberg ends his analysis with conclusory statements about his perception of the real motivation behind the case. That is a dangerous propensity for an Article III judge who must separate the politics from the merits in such challenges. In this case, Boasberg simply concluded that politics was the merits.

The court notes, correctly, that there are prior cases where grand jury subpoenas have been found improper if they are simply “fishing expeditions” or targeting “targets of investigation out of malice or an intent to harass.” They can also be quashed if prosecutors are seeking to meddle with an official’s duties. Such cases are very rare and the cited cases do not seem dispositive or even particularly helpful in the instant case.

The problem is that the main precedent relied on by the court suggests that this opinion is not just premature but itself an example of bias.

The court relies on Trump v. Vance to support the authority to quash an indictment. However, that case involved state prosecutors using grand-jury subpoenas financial records of President Trump and his businesses. Without actually ruling on whether the subpoenas were proper, the Court warned that state DAs cannot use grand-jury subpoenas to “interfer[e] with a President’s official duties.”

That case presented a threshold problem of state officials using the grand jury to target a president with obvious concerns over the Supremacy Clause. Judge Boasberg rightly noted that the clear import is that “a government official cannot do indirectly what she is barred from doing directly ….”

However, this is not something that the Justice Department is “barred from doing directly.” It has stated that the over-budget renovations raise concerns over fraud and wrongdoing. That is squarely within the jurisdiction of the Executive Branch.

Judge Boasberg cited cases such as NRA of Am. v. Vullo, 602 U.S. 175, 190 (2024) as an example of the bar on doing indirectly what you are barred from doing directly. However, like Vance, that case only makes this opinion stand out more. The case involved a New York state official using her powers to pressure banks and other companies not to do business with the NRA. That is manifestly different from the context in which prosecutors seek to enforce duly issued subpoenas to investigate possible fraud or waste in the criminal system.

Judge Boasberg then veers significantly from these cases with a series of conclusory remarks. He virtually mocks the suggestion that the Administration is acting in light of the massive costs and overruns, noting “buildings often go over budget.” Yet that does not mean federal officials are therefore barred from launching investigations into such matters.

The court further stresses that budget overruns “standing alone, hardly suggests that a crime occurred.” The question, again, is whether the required threshold is showing. The costs of the federal building are breathtaking and arguably unprecedented in terms of square foot expenditures. The court does not explain what showing is necessary to commence a criminal investigation. This is an early subpoena seeking basic documentary evidence.

The court notes that inspectors general have authority to investigate overruns and waste, adding that there was no such finding in this case. However, once again, the question is why that is relevant to the question before the Court. The IG may indeed be a better avenue for investigation, but there is nothing legally that forestalls an investigation by the Justice Department.

Once again, Judge Boasberg has voiced concerns shared by many on the basis of this criminal investigation. However, that is speculation in commentary. Judge Boasberg is not a talking head. He is a federal judge who must decide whether, despite such personal suspicions or inclinations, the court can bar otherwise valid grand jury subpoenas issued in an early stage of investigation.

The irony is that, while castigating the prosecutors for a lack of evidence, Judge Boasberg relies on dubious evidence to establish that political harassment is the dominant motivation. Quoting all-caps postings of the President does not offer evidence of a sole or dominant motive in an investigation. It is itself speculative and presumptive.

While Judge Boasberg notes that, “[w]ith varied improper purposes popping up on different occasions, it is clear that such purposes cannot be reduced to a fixed and exhaustive list,” he does not offer any clarity on when an investigation into fraud or waste would be demonstrably valid in its earliest stages. The court acknowledges that the Supreme Court has held there is no need for the Government to establish probable cause as the basis for issuing a grand-jury subpoena.

So that is the standard here other than Judge Boasberg’s suspicions based on public statements from the President?

The court merely states

“What the Court must determine is whether the Board is correct in its inference. In other words, what is these subpoenas’ dominant purpose? A mountain of evidence suggests that the dominant purpose is to harass Powell to pressure him to lower rates.”

That dominant purpose is far from evident. There is no evidence that Powell will yield to the pressure to lower rates, and many of us have noted that this would be a particularly ham-handed effort to get him to do so. From what we have seen, Powell has little to fear from this inquiry on a personal level. If anything, the improper purpose would seem like raw retaliation. However, there is also the pesky claim in the grand jury and captured in these subpoenas that the Administration believes that there is fraud or waste – and the possibility of false testimony. How would the court know at this stage that such claims are meritless or fraudulent? More importantly, what would stop future courts from rendering the same inferential judgment on presidents that they oppose?

Rather than answer that question, Boasberg returns to all-caps posts about how much the President despises Powell and wants him gone. The problem is that both positions could be true. The President could want Powell gone while the Justice Department could want to investigate waste and fraud.

For example, Boasberg quotes Trump as saying “we’re thinking about bringing a gross incompetence, what’s called a gross incompetence lawsuit, it’s gross incompetence, against Powell . . . I’d love to fire him. Maybe I still might.”

The problem is that Trump could believe that Powell is grossly incompetent and that he allowed massive overruns on this project. Boasberg just assumes that Trump wants Powell gone and even makes a veiled analogy to King Henry II signaling to his henchmen to kill Thomas Becket:

“In sum, the President spent years essentially asking if no one will rid him of this troublesome Fed Chair.” 

(In this modern remake, apparently the murderous King is Trump, the saintly Becket is Powell, and the henchman is Pirro).

What is particularly disturbing is how the court dismisses the independent ethical duty of U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro to have a good-faith basis for seeking such subpoenas. 

Judge Boasberg writes:

“True, most of the evidence above speaks to the motives of the President, not the U.S. Attorney’s Office. Yet judges ‘are not required to exhibit a naiveté from which ordinary citizens are free.’ Dep’t of Com. v. New York, 588 U.S. 752, 785 (2019) (quotation marks omitted). The U.S. Attorney was appointed by the President and can be fired by him. Her peer one district over was recently pushed out for refusing to prosecute the President’s opponents.”

This, for me, was the final abandonment of objectivity where assumptions become reality. By dismissing Pirro’s independent motivation, Boasberg leaves the weight of his own evidence as a string of social media posts. He ignores a major push by the administration to seek out government waste and fraud, which began with the DOGE efforts and was recently followed by the appointment of a “tsar” to root out fraud in federal programs. There is no serious debate that this Administration has made combating fraud and waste a priority and has taken unprecedented steps to investigate and prosecute such wrongdoing. Yet the court suggests that Pirro is merely clinging to her job by blindly carrying out the President’s demands.

None of this means that the court would lack the authority or a possible basis to dismiss this action at a later stage. My primary concern is the timing and the court’s presumptive analysis at this early stage. I fail to see a discernible standard in this case that would inform future courts or officials … other than presidents should not post in all caps or troll officials. While Judge Boasberg chastises the Justice Department for yielding too readily to its impulses, this opinion seems strikingly impulsive in critical aspects.

The Justice Department is appealing this opinion. We may see greater clarity on the underlying standard as the case works toward the Supreme Court.

Here is the opinion: Boasberg Opinion

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 11:45

The Wrath Of Kharg

By Ben Picton, Senior Market Startegist at Rabobank

Brent crude is bid again this morning as markets digest the dump of news over the weekend relating to the Iran war. On the bullish side for crude was the US decision to bomb Iranian military assets on Kharg Island – the Persian Gulf port where up to 90% of Iranian oil exports are typically loaded onto tankers. Announcing the strikes via Truth Social, President Trump was at pains to be clear that oil infrastructure was not targeted, but the implicit threat that it could be is an unsubtle one. Trump later said that the US may conduct further strikes on the island “just for fun”. 

News also emerged over the weekend that the USS Tripoli has been redeployed from the Western Pacific to the Persian Gulf. The Tripoli is a light aircraft carrier with a complement of 2,500 marines and an F35B stealth fighter air wing. Speculation is rife that the marines could be used to secure oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, or perhaps to help clear the mountains north of the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian belligerents (the latter seems less likely). Either would be a case of ‘boots on the ground’ and interpreted as a major escalation. Iranian officials have said over the weekend that they would respond in kind to any attacks on their oil infrastructure. Indeed, there were further limited attacks on oil assets of US-aligned Gulf states over the weekend, which may explain the bid tone in Brent this morning and a lift in the forward curve since this time last week.

A bizarre intervention in the war came from Hamas, who called for Iran to cease attacks on regional neighbors. Hamas is well-known as an Iranian proxy, so there is some speculation circulating that this may be an attempt from the Iranian side to begin to engineer an off-ramp. Coupled with news last week that Iran had struck agreements with India and Bangladesh to allow crude cargoes to pass, and comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister over the weekend that the Strait was not closed to anyone other than the US, Israel and their allies, there appears to be some cautious optimism in markets this morning that glimmers of hope for an end to hostilities are emerging. AUD and NZD are both trading higher, spot gold is down to almost $5,000/oz and bitcoin is catching a bid.

However, ‘glimmers’ is the operative word. While Hamas was calling for Iran to end strikes on neighboring states the Houthis (another Iranian proxy) were giving signs that they are ready to escalate against shipping being diverted into the Red Sea to load crude cargoes at the Saudi port of Yanbu. Disruptions to Red Sea shipping – which the Houthis have proven adept at over the years – would close off the release valve of the Saudi East-West pipeline that is capable of redirecting 5-7mn bbl/day to offset the ~18-20mn bbl/day supply interruption.

There is also the fact that South Korea and Japan – both major destinations for Gulf energy cargoes – would likely be considered US allies and therefore not allowed to receive crude shipments under the terms of the Iranian toll road. Trump himself has rebuffed suggestions of a ceasefire over the weekend, saying that he is not yet ready to end the war because the terms offered by Iran are not good enough. Iranian officials deny that any terms have been offered at, beyond the US’s withdrawal from the Middle East and payment of reparations. No wonder Trump isn’t keen. Prediction markets are this morning implying odds of a ceasefire before month end of just 14%, down from 21% on Friday.

There are glimmers of hope in other areas. The Wall Street Journal is this morning reporting that the United States is set to announce the formation of an international coalition to provide naval escorts to tankers transiting Hormuz. Some commentators on X have already observed that this would run counter to Donald Trump’s recent shot at UK PM Starmer, where he said that the US doesn’t need allies who only turn up after the war is won (the British might have their own thoughts on allies who arrive late to wars). Nevertheless, there does seem to be a plan developing, though both South Korea and Japan have signalled caution about deploying warships to the Gulf as China resumes military exercises around Taiwan after a 10-day hiatus.

Speaking of China, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are currently meeting with Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Paris to discuss trade. The talks come ahead of a much anticipated Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on March 31st and are expected to lay the groundwork for that meeting. Early reports suggest that the American side asked China to buy more Boeing aircraft, and US coal and gas. With Qatari liquified natural gas exports currently out of the market, and the Chinese economy approximately 50% dependent on imports for its domestic needs, it should be an easy sell. Japan’s Industry Minister has also recently reached out to Australia to urge a ramping up of LNG production, though this will take time and is sure to face opposition from environmentalists in Australia.

The timing of the Trump-Xi meeting is interesting. Trump will be headed to Beijing with Chinese influence having recently been ejected by America power in Venezuela, Cuba and the Panama Canal. The strikes on Kharg Island – which is the main port of origin for a large slice of China’s oil imports – also raises the prospect of Chinese influence in central Asia being severely curtailed. The US is a mostly self-sufficient net energy exporter who suddenly occupies several key maritime chokepoints for Chinese energy imports. The message to Beijing couldn’t be more clear: if you attempt to leverage rare earth supply chains against US interests, the US will leverage energy supply chains against Chinese interests. Regular readers would be aware that we have argued the logic of this for the last 18 months.

So, again we see that economic statecraft is employed to create supply chain pressure to get what you want. To appreciate this disruptive power fully, it must be recognised that the Iran crisis goes far beyond energy and the supply shock will reverberate through everything from petrochemicals, to agriculture to pharmaceuticals and beyond. China’s industrial dominance therefore becomes an Achilles heel in a global economic shock. For a comprehensive accounting of the likely impacts, see this excellent piece produced by the RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness team.

Trump wants Hormuz open again. Xi wants guarantees that Gulf oil will continue to flow to Chinese refineries, Chinese industrial producers will have markets to sell to, and Chinese consumers will have food to import. Trump thinks he has the upper hand in this negotiation and so on Sunday night he told media that he could seek to delay the Beijing summit and that he expected China to help open the Strait of Hormuz. He is playing hard to get, and trying to put all of the pressure on Xi to force a resolution. To paraphrase Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally: “it’s our war, but it’s your problem.”

So, could the upcoming summit be the moment where we see Beijing issue the directive to its allies in Tehran to end the blockade? For Xi it may be a choice between that, or suffering the wrath of Kharg on the Chinese industrial economy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 10:45

Nano Nuclear Progresses HALEU Transport Package

Nano Nuclear released a notable update this morning for achieving conceptual design milestones on its proprietary, optimized High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) transportation package, developed in partnership with German nuclear logistics heavyweight GNS.

Through subsidiary Advanced Fuel Transportation (AFT), the company has nailed down two optimized payload baskets capable of hauling multiple advanced fuel forms including uranium oxide, TRISO, uranium-zirconium hydride, uranium mononitride, and even molten salt reactor fuel. All of it was run through an NRC Quality Assurance program, with initial analyses indicating full regulatory compliance. Next up is full regulatory engagement and certification.

The tech builds on Nano’s exclusive license for a high-capacity basket originally designed by Idaho National Lab. Jay Yu, founder and chairman, called it “an important step toward building the infrastructure needed to support the deployment of advanced reactors”.

As we covered last year, Nano broke ground on its Kronos microreactor facility at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, complete with state backing and a manufacturing/R&D site announcement from Governor Pritzker. We followed up with coverage of their engineering firm partnerships and the founder’s Shawn Ryan Show appearance touting laser enrichment ambitions. The Illinois project has been the headline (and only) act, until now.

It’s a mild surprise: while the reactor side hogs the press and investor imagination, the transport business segment has been making tangible development progress. In an industry starved for HALEU shipping solutions, this could become a revenue driver years before any microreactor fires up commercially.

Nano’s vertical-integration bet with enrichment, fuel fab, transport, and reactors, looks a touch less aspirational today.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 10:20

BYD Shares Soar Most In 13 Months As Chinese EV Push Into Americas Accelerates

Shares of Chinese EV maker BYD surged the most in 13 months after a report that its factory in Bahia, Brazil, a former Ford Motor plant, secured export orders for about 100,000 vehicles from Argentina and Mexico. This development suggests BYD's strategy to localize production in South America is still in its early stages and set to flood the continent with Chinese EVs.  

Bloomberg quoted Macquarie Capital analyst Eugene Hsiao, who said the local Chinese media report about BYD's Brazil factory receiving large orders from Argentina and Mexico suggests that "this is positive for the broader BYD thesis, which is that overseas sales will become the core growth and profit driver over time."

Brazil is BYD's largest market outside China. The factory in Bahia is critical to the Chinese company's overseas expansion plans in the Americas. The plant has a capacity to make 150,000 EVs per year.

In BYD's home market of China, overall sales for the first two months of the year slumped 36% to 400,241 units. Competition in China has intensified as rivalry among domestic brands grows fiercer. However, exports have gained solid traction, with the company now planning to sell 1.3 million cars abroad.

"A higher gas price would potentially drive demand in the European market, which would benefit Chinese automakers that export to that market such as BYD," Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun said, adding, "For Chinese market, gas bill is not as big a driver to EV demand as in overseas market."

BYD shares in Hong Kong surged 8% on Monday, marking the largest gain in 13 months, as news of overseas expansion lifted investor sentiment.

The stock was a top performer on the Hang Seng Tech Index, with trading volume doubling to 35.7 million shares. Peers including Nio and Xiaomi climbed more than 5%.

Top BYD headlines (courtsey of Bloomberg):

• The Brazil plant has annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles and will increase production to 600,000 vehicles in phases

• BYD will launch the premium Denza Z9GT electric vehicle in Europe on April 8, offering up to 800 kilometers range

• The new vehicle can charge from 10% to 70% in about five minutes using BYD's latest fast-charging system

• BYD unveiled its second-generation Blade Battery on March 9, promising to charge EVs from 10% to 97% in under nine minutes

• BYD is exploring entry into Formula 1 and endurance racing to boost global brand appeal

• BYD is actively considering building a manufacturing plant in Canada and keeping options open to acquire a global automaker

For readers heading to Mexico for spring break, one of the first things you may notice after stepping outside the airport terminal is how many BYD vehicles are already on the road. The flood of Chinese EVs is shifting into hyperdrive, and in the Americas, the invasion is already underway.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: Central Banks Galore, PPI, And The War In Iran

After Friday's revelation that it was the first consecutive monthly Friday 13th for 11 years, DB's Jim Reid writes that today's nearly-as-impressive revelation is that this week sees the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE all meet in a single calendar week for the first time since December 2021. So a "super week" for central banks. All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics.

Clearly the Middle East is the center of attention for markets right now, with oil prices fluctuating rapidly depending on the mood of the moment, which in turn is set by rapid burst headlines which are stale by the time the next flashing red headline hits. And since every asset class now reacts to any up or down tick in oil, it leads to cross-asset chaos, to say the least. The bigger problem, of course, is that the longer the conflict lasts, and the higher oil prices rise, the more hawkish central banks will have to be no matter the AI-driven bloodbath in the labor market. 

Indeed, while the Iran war is set to dominate the week ahead, we do still have those four big central bank meetings, where all eyes will be on their reaction functions to the war’s impact and the latest oil shock. Starting with the Fed, DB economists expect them to keep rates unchanged this week and think they’ll emphasize elevated geopolitical uncertainty. They only expect minor statement tweaks, including smoothed language on recent labor data (especially given January and February’s conflicting payrolls) and a nod to geopolitical risks, highlighting uncertainty and near-term upside pressure on inflation. Then at the press conference, they think Chair Powell is likely to stress that recent events mainly transmit through financial conditions—particularly oil prices. For now, however, economists think he’ll avoid signalling any meaningful shift in the near term policy outlook.

For the Fed, an important consequence of the conflict is that higher energy prices have begun to feed into inflation assumptions. So DB's economists have nudged up their headline inflation estimates for this year, and they expect Fed officials to reflect a similar adjustment when they publish their updated Summary of Economic Projections. Indeed, core PCE inflation has registered back-to-back 0.4% monthly increases now, pushing the year-on-year rate to 3.1%, the highest since early 2024. For the dot plot, economists are still expecting it to signal one rate cut this year, although it wouldn’t take much to shift the median dot for 2026. Clearly though, the outlook is going to remain heavily dependent on the oil price. For example, our economists have found that a sustained oil price around $100/bbl would still see the projected tax benefits to consumers from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act outweigh the drag from higher effective energy costs. However, a move toward $150/bbl would pose a more material risk to consumer spending and the broader outlook.

Beyond the Fed, this week’s incoming data is unlikely to materially alter the tone of the meeting. February’s industrial production today is expected to rise by 0.3%, slower than January's 0.7%, largely due to softer utility output, though oil and gas extraction will be worth monitoring. Otherwise, the regional manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia could reflect some drag from geopolitical uncertainty, with particular attention on capital spending components. And given the recent labor market volatility, Thursday’s initial jobless claims will take on added importance as they fall within the March employment survey window.

Away from the US, this Thursday will bring the ECB, BoE and BoJ meetings, with DB economists expecting all three to leave rates on hold, with the emphasis firmly on guidance rather than action. At the ECB, expect the Governing Council to acknowledge heightened uncertainty and near-term upside risks to inflation, while stopping short of explicitly flagging medium term risks. Also expect a strong reiteration of policy flexibility and a clear message underscoring the ECB’s unwavering commitment to price stability, with officials keen to signal that they stand ready to act to avoid a repeat of the 2022–23 inflation episode. 

Then in the UK, DB thinks the MPC will lean into a dovish wait and see stance amid a more clouded outlook following the Iran related energy shock. Expect a less divided vote than in February, with the majority favoring an unchanged Bank Rate, while two members continue to favor a cut. Although DB economists still sees two rate cuts this year, recent developments have pushed back the expected timing.

Over in Japan, the BoJ is expected to maintain its current stance, with attention focused on Governor Ueda’s press conference. While underlying fundamentals could justify an early hike, elevated oil prices and growth risks are likely to temper near term action, and sustained crude prices above $100/bbl would reduce the likelihood of an April move. Meanwhile, other central banks making decisions this week include the RBA (Tuesday; expect a hike), the BoC (Wednesday), the SNB and the Riksbank (Thursday). The latter three are widely expected to see no change in rates.

Finally this week, notable data includes Germany’s Zew survey for March tomorrow and UK labor market data due Thursday. In the geopolitical sphere, President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi are meeting in Washington, with defence cooperation expected to be the primary topic (see more in our Chief Japan economist’s week ahead here). In Europe, this week’s events include an EU leaders’ summit (Thursday to Friday). And on earnings, the lineup includes Micron, FedEx and Lululemon in the US as well as Tencent and Alibaba in China. See the day-by-day calendar of events at the end as usual for more.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 16

• Data: US March Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, February industrial production, capacity utilisation, China February retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, Italy January general government debt, Canada February CPI, housing starts
• Earnings: Standard Life
• Other: EU foreign affairs council meeting

Tuesday March 17

• Data: US March New York Fed services business activity, February leading index, pending home sales, Germany March Zew survey, Eurozone March Zew survey, Canada February existing home sales
• Central banks: RBA decision
• Earnings: Lululemon, Oklo
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Wednesday March 18

• Data: US February PPI, January factory orders, total net TIC flows, Japan January Tertiary industry index, February trade balance, Canada January international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed decision, BoC decision
• Earnings: Tencent, Micron

Thursday March 19

• Data: US March Philadelphia Fed business outlook, January new home sales, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK January average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, February jobless claims change, Japan January core machine orders, capacity utilisation, Eurozone January construction output, Q4 labour costs, Australia February labour force survey
• Central banks: rate decisions from the ECB, the BoJ, the BoE, the SNB and the Riksbank
• Earnings: Alibaba, Accenture, Enel, FedEx, Vonovia
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)
• Other: Leaders of US and Japan meet in Washington, European Council meeting (through Friday)

Friday March 20

• Data: UK February public finances, Germany February PPI, Italy January trade balance, current account balance, ECB January current account, Eurozone January trade balance, Canada January retail sales, February industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, ECB’s Nagel speaks

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the PPI report on Wednesday. The March FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, March 16 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, March (consensus +3.9, last +7.1)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, February (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, February (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.6%); Capacity utilization, February (GS 76.1%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.2%): We estimate industrial production was unchanged in February, reflecting strong auto production but weak electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization edged down to 76.1%.
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, March (consensus 37, last 36)

Tuesday, March 17

• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS flat, consensus -0.7%, last -0.8%)

Wednesday, March 18 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, February (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); 10:00 AM Factory orders, January (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.7%) : We forecast that factory orders increased by 0.1% in January, driven by a rebound in commercial aircraft orders.
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, March 17-18 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to leave the funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. We expect Governors Bowman, Miran and Waller to dissent in favor of a 25bp cut. The Committee is likely to note in its statement that the war in Iran has increased uncertainty about the outlook and will likely raise inflation and weigh on economic activity in the near term. The Summary of Economic Projections is likely to show changes to the 2026 forecasts in line with our own, including higher core (+0.2pp to 2.7% Q4/Q4) and headline (+0.6pp to 3.0%) inflation, lower GDP growth (-0.2pp to 2.1%), and a higher unemployment rate (+0.2pp to 4.6%). We expect little change in the dot plot, where the median is likely to continue to show one cut in each of 2026 and 2027. We recently pushed the two additional rate cuts in our forecast back to September and December. 

Thursday, March 19 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 14 (GS 210k, consensus 215k, last 213k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 7 (consensus 1,850k, last 1,850k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline by 3k. Initial claims remain below their average level in 2025H2 and the layoff rate edged down in January, suggesting that nationwide layoffs remain low despite the increase in alternative layoff measures in Q4 of last year. 
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, March (GS 7.0, consensus 10.0, last 16.3)
• 10:00 AM New home sales, January (GS -2.0%, consensus -2.7%, last -1.7%): We estimate that new home sales fell by 2.0% in January, reflecting a drag from winter storm Fern.

 
Friday, March 20 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:50

Israel Expects Iran War To Continue At Least Into April, Lebanon Conflict Longer

The White House has struggled to present the American public and the world with a clear timeline or precise strategy on Operation Epic Fury, but Israel has seemed clearer on signaling it is settling in for a longer war.

Israel is bracing for its war with Iran to stretch well into April, even as officials quietly concede the government in Tehran is unlikely to collapse, according to Israeli media.

Damage from the June war which lasted 12 days, in Bnei Brak, Israel. via Reuters.

This has Israel has expanded its attacks not just to Iran's oil and energy sites, but more broadly to its defense industrial sector, wanting to see even Tehran's ability to manufacture new missiles utterly destroyed.

And according to Ynet, "At the same time, the idea of encouraging public unrest inside Iran has not been abandoned, though officials acknowledge uncertainty about how effective such efforts might be."

"We continue to strike regime targets, mainly in Tehran. We are entering the decisive phase. We are aiming to bring the people out into the streets. It’s not only us - the Americans are also working toward that," an Israeli official stated.

"Not everything can be controlled, but everything possible is being done to make it succeed. The regime must be weakened as much as possible, including the Basij," the official added. "We are striking them and killing them in the thousands."

Israeli officials have further made clear they have assets on the ground, or Iranians who have helped spot IRGC/Basij checkpoint and security locations. Israel's military has publicized some instances of active strikes on these locations.

As for whether targeting information is actually being communicated by anti-regime Iranians, this could just be Israeli propaganda intent on sowing discord and suspicions among the Iranian populace.

Still, Israeli officials have admitted they are skeptical that street protests alone could topple the Iranian government. Over in Washington, President Trump apparently thought 'decapitation strikes' would quickly result in some kind of rapid uprising in the streets and change of government, but that didn't appear even close to happening.

On the White House's series of miscalculation as this war is in week three with no signs of an off-ramp, Robert D. Kaplan has written in Foreign Affairs:

The biggest U.S. foreign policy fiascos happened because policymakers were obsessed with regional and global consequences they often could not properly manage, and thus ignored critical conditions on the ground. In Vietnam, U.S. leaders overlooked the history and nature of Vietnamese nationalism; in Iraq, it was sectarianism. Tuchman has encouraged leaders to trust area specialists more than grand strategists or democracy promoters. Sophisticated and specific cultural knowledge, she has observed, is much more useful than metrics and shadowy schemes.

Middle-sized wars often stem from misunderstandings about the place intervention is meant to help. The key, then, is for the intervening country to know what it is getting itself into. This may seem easy, but it can be the hardest part of policymaking. Bringing up cultural matters and differences is tricky because it can easily be misconstrued as prejudice, which pushes people to avoid critical conversations about realities on the ground. But it is such discussions that can keep a superpower out of trouble.

Meanwhile, as far as a timeline, Israeli leaders have admitted that it's renewed war with Hezbollah is expected to outlast the conflict with Iran. Hezbollah has been launching missiles on northern Israel, while IDF ground forces have moved in, also as Beirut continues to get pounded from the air.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:45

Florida Passes Voter ID Bill Modeled After SAVE Act

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The Florida Legislature passed new election legislation modeled after President Donald Trump’s proposed SAVE America Act.

House Bill 991, sponsored by state Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, passed along party lines by a vote of 83 to 31.

“We are the Election Integrity State!” Persons-Mulicka wrote on X after the vote.

Sponsors of the bill moved the effective date to appease critics who feared the new identification requirements would discourage some voters from participating in midterm elections. The new laws won’t take effect until Jan. 1, 2027.

The bill requires Floridians to show proof of citizenship to register to vote, requires a valid photo ID to vote, makes paper ballots the primary method of voting, and bans student IDs as an acceptable voter ID.

Nearly all Florida driver’s licenses and ID cards are Real-ID compliant—a process that already verifies citizenship.

Once in place, the new regulations will also make it a felony for political parties, committees, organizations, and candidates to accept or solicit contributions from foreign nationals for any state elections.

Florida state Democrats voted against the bill, dubbing it the “Show Your Papers Act.”

Rep. Anna Eskamani, a Democrat representing Orlando, said the measure would restrict “all kinds of IDs Florida voters can use.”

“Student IDs and retirement center IDs would no longer be valid; driver’s licenses, state ID cards, military ID, and licenses to carry concealed weapons would still be accepted as proof of voter identity,” Eskamani said in a Facebook post.

The ACLU’s Florida Chapter condemned the measure’s passage, calling it an anti-voter bill.

“These changes are not neutral or harmless—they would fall hardest on low-income voters, students, seniors, women, and Black and brown Floridians,” said Bacardi Jackson, executive director of the ACLU Florida chapter.

"This wave of anti-voter legislation is advancing amid ongoing abuses of power that pose unprecedented threats to American democracy.”

 

Florida State Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, R-Fort Myers. Courtesy of the Florida House of Representatives

A similar effort by congressional Republicans has stalled for months in the U.S. Senate.

Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd encouraged Congress to move forward with the SAVE Act after Florida’s bill passed.

“Florida leads the nation in election integrity because we don’t rest on our laurels and are always looking to improve,” Byrd posted on X. “It’s now time for Congress to act on critical election integrity measures.”

Republican Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has been unable to advance the SAVE Act, despite growing pressure from the public and within his party.

Thune told colleagues on March 10 that he didn’t have the votes to pass the act by employing the talking filibuster. He plans to bring the bill to the Senate floor next week.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:30