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Tucker Carlson Exposes Mark Cuban's Hypocrisy On Ukraine Aid

Tucker Carlson Exposes Mark Cuban's Hypocrisy On Ukraine Aid

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Tucker Carlson confronted billionaire Mark Cuban over his hypocrisy on Ukraine, blasting him for backing taxpayer funding while refusing to spend any of his own fortune.

The viral clash took place Monday at the 2025 All-In Summit during a seminar titled “How to Save America,” hosted by David Sacks and others.

When asked about U.S. funding for Ukraine, Cuban voiced partial support, saying:

Half my family is Ukrainian … and so, you know, personally, I think we should help. But I don’t have a studied answer for you.”

That prompted Carlson to ask bluntly:

“How much money have you sent to Ukraine?”

“None,” Cuban admitted.

“Oh, so what do you mean by we? You’re the one whose family’s from Ukraine. Why don’t you send them a billion dollars?” Carlson shot back.

Cuban then tried to pivot, claiming that he was trying to “fix healthcare.”

Carlson swiftly countered: “Why don’t you fix their healthcare? If you’re, like, so deep, if you think we need to help, why don’t you start? How about you first?

“I noticed that’s never even an option for anybody. It’s like we need to help. That’s not what charity is. Forcing other people to help is not charity,” Carlson added.

The exchange has since gone viral, coming amid ongoing debate over foreign funding while Americans continue to struggle at home.

A growing bloc of Republicans has opposed sending more money to Ukraine, a country long plagued by corruption and mismanagement.

Despite this, the U.S. has spent a staggering $130 billion on the Eastern European country, according to the German Kiel Institute.

Watch the full exchange below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 14:25

Main Street Optimism Ticks Higher; Tariff Inflation Expectations Tumble

Main Street Optimism Ticks Higher; Tariff Inflation Expectations Tumble

Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8.

As RealInvestmentAdvice.com reports, that reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101.

Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump from July.

The Uncertainty Index also declined by four points, showing less concern around financing and capital expenditures.

Business health improved as 68% of owners rated conditions “good” or “excellent.”

Profit trends notched their best level since March 2023, while fewer firms raised prices, and financing costs eased. The average short-term loan rate fell to 8.1%, the lowest since May 2023, providing some relief for Main Street borrowers.

On the brighter side, the much feared impact of Trump's tariffs appears to be evaporating rapidly as fewer and fewer small businesses plan price hikes in the next three months...

Still, Main Street challenges remain.

Owners have consistently cited labor quality as the top issue, with 32% of Main Street reporting unfilled job openings.

While this marks the lowest share since 2020, it still reflects persistent hiring difficulties, especially in construction and manufacturing.

The bottom line: For investors, the survey results are a welcome contrast to broader signs of economic cooling. Main Street is becoming more optimistic again, but the miss relative to expectations and ongoing labor shortages temper the headline.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 14:05

'Delete This': New Smoking Gun Emails Reveal Fauci COVID Coverup

'Delete This': New Smoking Gun Emails Reveal Fauci COVID Coverup

The infamous autopen-pardoned Dr. Anthony Fauci lied under oath while testifying before Congress, and Rand Paul just dropped the receipts. 

"Emails obtained by the Committee appear to contradict your testimony," wrote Paul - referring to Fauci declaring under oath that he never 'engaged in attempts to obstruct the Freedom of Information Act and the release of public documents.' 

"In an email dated February 2, 2020, you directed then-NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins to "Please delete this e-mail after you read it." 

Paul's letter continues;

I have reason to believe that you may be in possession of additional records related to the Committee’s ongoing investigation. These records are necessary for the Committee to fully understand the federal government’s actions to identify the origins of COVID-19, and the extent to which taxpayer dollars were used to conduct risky virological research, as well as to weigh potential legislative reforms.

For this reason, I request that you provide the following, in complete, original, and unredacted form, no later than 5:00 PM on September 23, 2025:

1. A list of all email addresses, phone numbers, and messaging application usernames you used at any point between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023.

2. All email communications, including attachments, sent or received by you between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, whether on government-issued or personal accounts/devices, that refer or relate in any way to:

  • NIH, HHS, CIA, FBI, DOD, COVID-19

  • The “Proximal Origins” paper, The Wellcome Trust, Jeremy Farrar, The P3CO Review Group, Gain-of-function research, Dual-use research of concern, EcoHealth Alliance, Peter DaszakThe Wuhan Institute of Virology, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Zhengli Shi, The DEFUSE proposal, DARPA, DTRA, USAID PREDICT, The Rocky Mountain Laboratory, Vincent Munster, Fort Detrick, The Integrated Research Facility, The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID), The National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC)

3. All email communications, including attachments, created, sent, received, copied, or otherwise transmitted between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, whether on government-issued or personal accounts/devices, between or among you and:

  • Jeremy Farrar, Francis Collins, Hugh Auchincloss, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Vincent Munster, Kristian Andersen, Andrew Rambaut, Edward Holmes, Robert Garry.

Including communications in which you appear in any field (to, from, cc, bcc) or in forwarded chains.

4. All records of calls and voicemails, whether on government-issued or personal devices/accounts, between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, between you and:

  • Jeremy Farrar, Francis Collins, Hugh Auchincloss, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Vincent Munster, Kristian Andersen, Andrew Rambaut, Edward Holmes, Robert Garry, Samantha Power, Including call logs, voicemail transcripts, and audio recordings.

5. All text messages, iMessages, and communications conducted through encrypted or third-party messaging applications, including but not limited to Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and WeChat, sent or received by you between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2023, whether on government-issued or personal accounts/devices, that refer or relate in any way to:

  • NIH, HHS, CIA, FBI, DOD, COVID-19, The “Proximal Origins” paper, The Wellcome Trust, Jeremy Farrar, The P3CO Review Group, Gain-of-function research, Dual-use research of concern, EcoHealth Alliance, Peter Daszak, The Wuhan Institute of Virology, Ian Lipkin, Ralph Baric, Zhengli Shi, The DEFUSE proposal, DARPA, DTRA, USAID PREDICT, The Rocky Mountain Laboratory, Vincent Munster, Fort Detrick, The Integrated Research Facility, The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID)

Where are we on the validity of autopen pardons?

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 13:45

Blowout 10Y Auction: Lowest Yield Since Last September's 50bps Jumbo Cut; Near-Record Foreign Demand

Blowout 10Y Auction: Lowest Yield Since Last September's 50bps Jumbo Cut; Near-Record Foreign Demand

After yesterday's remarkably strong 3Y auction, which in our view was one of the "top 3" best 3Y sales in history, moments ago the US Treasury sold 10Y paper (in a 9-Year 11-Month reopening) in what may well be one of the "top 3" 10Y auctions too. 

Starting at the top, the auction priced at a high yield of 4.033%, down significantly from 4.255% last month, and the lowest since last September, when the market suffered another growth scare and the Fed ended up cutting by 50bps just a week after a similar 10Y auction priced. And just like the Sept 2024 auction, this one also stopped through the When Issued by a solid 1.3bps: this was the highest stop through since the market chaos in April.

The bid to cover was a solid improvement, from 2.351 to 2.650: the highest since April's 2.665% and above the six auction average of 2.556.

However, like yesterday's 3Y auction, it was the internals that were most notable, and specifically Indirects: yes, foreigners just couldn't get enough of today's reopening, and took down a near record 83.1%, ghe second highest on record, and just April's 87.9% market panic/basis trade collapse was higher.

And with Directs taking 12.66%, the lowest since April, Dealers were left with 4.2%, the lowest on record.

Overall, this was another stellar auction, one which dragged yields to a session low of 4.03% from an earlier high of 4.10%, which was to be expected after today's huge PPI miss, and now the question is whether tomorrow's CPI will reaffirm the deflationary glideslope and prompt Powell to cut 50bps next week. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 13:41

Elon Musk Commits $1 Million To Murals Of Iryna Zarutska Nationwide, Turning Public Spaces Into Culture War Battlegrounds

Elon Musk Commits $1 Million To Murals Of Iryna Zarutska Nationwide, Turning Public Spaces Into Culture War Battlegrounds

Americans are learning this week about the urgent need to rebuild insane asylums and expand prison capacity, given the Democratic Party's nation-killing progressive mass-release policies that have flooded city streets and communities with violent criminals, such as the one who brutally murdered a young Ukrainian refugee woman in broad daylight on public transit in North Carolina. 

With the Overton Window having shifted last year, what was once socially acceptable, such as bending the knee to woke policies cut from Marxist cloth (defund the police, etc.), is no longer popular as the dominant narrative across the land. Instead, Americans are demanding law and order, especially in the era of the Trump administration.

A significant inflection point, and what is being considered as politically disastours for Democrats ahead of the Midterms, has been the horrifying murder of Iryna Zarutska, a Ukrainian refugee, on a commuter train in Mecklenburg County. Her killer, Decarlos Brown, who was previously arrested 14 times in North Carolina for crimes ranging from assault to firearms possession, and whose own mother admitted he had schizophrenia and should never have been allowed back on the streets, was recently released on cashless bail by a progressive magistrate judge despite a two-decade violent crime spree. 

"Watching her cry alone with her hands holding her face is one of the saddest things I have ever seen," one X user wrote. 

Christopher Rufo noted, "We need more police, more prisons, and more asylums. And yes, we can arrest our way out of the psychotic-criminals-murdering-people-in-the-streets problem." 

The optics for the Democratic Party get worse, as their dark-money, billionaire-funded NGO network appears partly responsible...

What seems to be emerging this week could be the early innings of a cultural and political moment reminiscent of the one seen with George Floyd - though not as part of a Marxist takeover. This time, it is driven by the 'America First' crowd, with their first move being the use of public spaces as the battleground, much like in 2020.

The first evidence of this comes from an Intercom CEO, Eoghan McCabe, who just offered $500,000 to artists nationwide, $10,000 per grant, to paint murals of Iryna Zarutska's face in prominent US metro areas. 

Just like the murals of Floyd, McCabe's taking the playbook from the left and turning public spaces into battleground areas with highly visible art of Zarutska's face to communicate to everyday folks how the death of this young and innocent woman was due to nation-killing progressive policies.

And Elon Musk commits $1 million. 

Why should McCabe stop with Zarutska? The America First crowd may soon realize that the next battleground is public space. Recall that dark-money-funded anti-Trump Indivisible group understands this space very well. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 13:20

"Shock To Global Seaborne Gas Trade": China-Russia Pipeline Seen Displacing One-Third Of LNG Imports

"Shock To Global Seaborne Gas Trade": China-Russia Pipeline Seen Displacing One-Third Of LNG Imports

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

China’s planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline with Russia could displace the equivalent of one-third of the country’s LNG imports and deliver a “shock” to the global seaborne gas trade, according to analysts cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

The 50-billion-cubic-meter-per-year conduit, slated to run through Mongolia, would lock in long-term Russian pipeline supply and sharply cut China’s need for LNG cargoes just as global exporters scale up capacity.

The warning follows Sunday’s signing of a binding memorandum between Moscow and Beijing. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom chief Alexei Miller presented the deal in Beijing as a centerpiece of their energy partnership.

While intent has been formalized, key commercial details such as pricing and financing remain unsettled, with analysts describing the accord as a demonstration of strategic alignment between the two nations, underscoring Russia’s eastward pivot after Europe halted most pipeline purchases.

Chinese media continue to emphasize the sheer scale of the shift. Sina Finance reported Gazprom’s plans to expand existing Power of Siberia flows from 38 to 44 bcm annually, and Far East volumes from 10 to 12 bcm, alongside the new Mongolian line. QQ.com highlighted Beijing’s view of the project as insurance against volatile LNG markets and leverage in negotiations with U.S. and Qatari suppliers.

The initiative is part of a “new gas world order,” with pipeline deals reinforcing China’s long-term bargaining power in energy.

Analysts from Barron’s and Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy have warned that U.S. LNG exporters could lose market share in Asia if China secures more Russian volumes, with the pipeline reducing spot demand and softening growth trajectories for American cargoes.

If Power of Siberia 2 is built on schedule, it would provide China with fixed-price, long-distance pipeline gas at volumes comparable to major LNG supply deals.

That shift could cap demand growth for new liquefaction projects targeting Asia, forcing U.S., Qatari, and Australian exporters to compete more aggressively for the remaining market.

Traders told Bloomberg that such a rebalancing would ripple through long-term contract negotiations now underway, reshaping LNG investment decisions well into the 2030s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 13:00

What's The Opposite Of "Quiet Day"?

What's The Opposite Of "Quiet Day"?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

There haven’t been any ‘quiet days’ in 2025 in global strategy, just a constant flow of conflating developments across geopolitics and geoeconomics. The last 24 hours have been no exception.

Israel struck Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, which may -- unconfirmed -- have killed their negotiating team; or at least the hardline ones who yesterday refused Trump’s ‘final’ deal, 24 hours after he had warned there’d be consequences if it was rejected. This has seen fears of regional contagion, but Qatar --already attacked by Iran earlier in the year-- has no real armed forces of its own, just the largest US airbase in the Middle East.

International condemnation has been swift. Even Trump posted in opposition, stating he hadn’t known about the attack until the last moment and had tried to warn Qatar (which should have been able to detect it itself; and Turkish sources are claiming they tipped Doha, and Hamas, off). Trump added it should be used as a platform for peace and that he will be deepening defence relations with Qatar ahead. There are layers of misperceptions, misstatements, and potential missteps in all this, but it suggests further shifts in the region – we shall see if it’s towards peace or more conflict.

Meanwhile, while Europe then slept, Russian (Iranian-designed) drones made a mass attack on Ukraine and also entered Polish airspace, seeing several EU states’ F-35s scrambled and Polish airports close as far as Warsaw. One US Representative posted:

Russia is attacking NATO ally Poland… This is an act of war, and we are grateful to NATO allies for their swift response to war criminal Putin’s continued unprovoked aggression against free and productive nations. I urge President Trump to respond with mandatory sanctions that will bankrupt the Russian war machine and arm Ukraine with weapons capable of striking Russia. Putin is no longer content just losing in Ukraine while bombing mothers and babies, he is now directly testing our resolve in NATO territory. Putin stated that “Russia knows no borders.” Free and prosperous nations will teach Russia about borders.”

Indeed, while Trump had earlier continued US-India online détente in posting he still expects a trade deal to be agreed, he then told Europe it must put 100% tariffs on China and India to stop Putin, which he would follow. To say that this has major consequences is an understatement: most so if this is done, but also if it isn’t - because that would makes clear the EU (and US) are not prepared to use sufficiently strong economic statecraft, which leaves them with either military statecraft or nothing. Run the fat tail risks on both.  

At the same time, Nepal just lost its PM after violent public protests seeing its parliament burned - the tiny state sandwiched between giant India and China is a focus of their (and others) attention.

French President Macron appointed 39-year-old Defence Minister Lecornu as his latest prime minister… how long will he last as French borrowing costs now top Italy’s in what Bloomberg calls ‘an historic market shift’? And who is left as the Eurozone ‘core’ now vs the ‘periphery’, and what percentage of Eurozone GDP do they represent? I’m asking for a central bank friend.

Indonesia, also facing large public protests --the finance minister’s house was burned down before they stepped down-- has seen its president ask the central bank to directly lower the cost of borrowing for his admin’s key projects, via “burden sharing”. At least it answers the question, “What is GDP for?”

In this geoeconomic maelstrom, China is aiming to shore up ASEAN ties, the SCMP reporting that “Ahead of next week’s 22nd China-ASEAN Expo, commerce ministry official says the trade partners could formally secure closer economic ties this year”. So, larger ASEAN trade deficits with China it will be then; and the US won’t allow any transshipment to send those goods their way. Yet Europe doesn’t have any such barriers in place, and if it raises them, it’s again moving into a US trade bloc, as we had projected.

In purely economic news, as if there can be any such thing nowadays, the FT says Rachel Reeves is to tell ministers to prioritize the fight against UK inflation as Labour MPs are instead “increasingly concerned about the ‘straitjacket’ imposed on economic policy.” Aren’t we already seeing “rate cuts!”?  

Similarly, the WSJ reports that ‘Inflation Erased US Income Gains Last Year’ as “High-income households fared better than others, while women lost ground to men.” That doesn’t sound like Main Street is beating Wall Street.

Neither did the -911K downward revision of US payrolls data in the year to March 2025, which presents a very different outlook for the economy than previously seen and, as I noted a few weeks ago, leaves one wondering why we bother to look at those data - besides the monthly casino routine of higher/lower than that is. Bloomberg also says 1/3 of the top jobs at the BLS are currently unfilled, which doesn’t suggest data quality is going to get any better soon - but, hey, a wider, wilder range of outcomes in the monthly casino, right? VP Vance posted: “It’s difficult to overstate how useless BLS data had become. A change was necessary to restore confidence.” But change to what?

Moreover, a US judge ruled allegations of mortgage fraud sent to the DOJ do not apparently constitute necessary “for cause”, or notice, for Trump to have fired her, hence Governor Cook can remain in the job for next week’s FOMC meeting. Again, expect this to be appealed and/or end up at the Supreme Court, where some suspect it will be reversed as part of an extension of executive power over civil servants (the so-called Humphrey’s Executor). In the meantime, is Cook, a dove, going to vote for a rate cut or suddenly become a hawk despite the payrolls revisions? Who knows… but politics and personality politics in central banking? Whocouldanooed?! 

Moreover, the US Supreme Court also agreed to hear Trump’s IEEPA tariff appeal in November.

In markets, Anglo American and Teck are to merge, creating a copper mining giant with a market value of more than $53bn, which given how crucial copper is to energy systems, which are crucial to AI, which is crucial to national security and any hopes to get us out of our high debt, high inflation, low productivity slump, obviously won’t be subject to any economic statecraft pressure from either the US or China. Honest. It’s all going to be “because markets.”

Lastly, the SCMP says ‘China offers funding for stablecoin research as global interest grows’ where “The country’s largest state research bureau is offering grants for the study of the digital assets - and how to monitor their movements.” Might that have something to do with the looming introduction of USD stablecoins, and their ability to de facto dollarize other economies?

Like I said, it’s far from quiet. Some messages are being screamed as loudly as they can, even if they are then distorted by their volume.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 12:20

Kremlin Dismisses Polish Drone Attack Claims, Saying No Evidence Provided

Kremlin Dismisses Polish Drone Attack Claims, Saying No Evidence Provided

Russia on Wednesday formally rejected Poland's claims that its drones breached Poland's airspace overnight - citing that no evidence has been provided which link the drones to Russia's military.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk definitely asserted that a "huge number of Russian drones" had entered airspace of the NATO member and that it was an "act of aggression". Ukrainian President Zelensky has also alleged that it was an intentional attack, and is using it to try to lobby NATO to provide more direct air defense.

Via Reuters

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has reacted in stating "The EU and NATO leadership accuse Russia of provocation on a daily basis. Most often, without even trying to provide any arguments."

Russia's charge d'affaires in Warsaw, Andrey Ordash, summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry on Wednesday. But he and Peskov underscored that no evidence was provided that the UAVs were sent by Russia.

Peskov further pointed out that the drones flew from Ukraine into Poland, and there have been prior such episodes. For example, a November 2022 incident saw a Ukrainian missile land on Polish territory - which was initially widely blamed on Russia, until the missile debris was examined - after which it was determined to be an errant Ukrainian air defense missile.

Russia's Defense Ministry is explaining on Wednesday that range of the UAVs which allegedly crossed the border with Poland do not exceed 700 km - suggesting that such a breach was not possibly. The MoD said it is open to holding direct consultations with the Polish government to resolve the matter. Meanwhile...

One former Swedish military officer and analyst of the conflict has offered the following points, pushing back against claims of some kind of intentional Russian attack with a 'drone wave' on a NATO member:

1. Russia isn't attacking Poland, some Russian drones flew over Polish territory during the attack on western Ukraine tonight.

2. This isn't a continued unprovoked aggression against free and productive nations. US actions against imaginary threats in Venezuela are more unprovoked and it is questionable if the US presently is a productive member of the world society with its threats to other nations territorial integrity, support of Israeli aggression and escalating trade wars. 

3. Sanctions have had limited impact on the Russian economy and to bankrupt the Russian war machine the West must initiate a full scale trade war with China, BRICS and large parts of the world. Half the world economy can't sanction the other half without severe economic repercussions at home. The population in the West are not willing to accept a global economic depression in answer to some Russian drones getting lost. Especially since they might have lost their way due to Ukrainian EW defences.

4. Russia isn't losing in Ukraine, everybody knows that. Otherwise western leaders could lean back in their couches and look forward to Russia losing for a couple of more years. But then Russia might be losing along the entire Dnieper river, not as far east of the river as they are now.

Contrast the above with some Congress members, like Rep. Joe Wilson, claiming that this is a Russian "act of war" against NATO.

But broadly among US leaders, incidents like this could serve to get more air defense systems like Patriots into Ukrainian hands. Trump has appeared to slow-play this, but will be pressured to 'act' more quickly and robustly, also as the Trump-backed peace negotiation process seems completely derailed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 12:00

Trump Rape Accuser Boasts Of 'Trick' On Jurors By Making Herself Look "F***able"

Trump Rape Accuser Boasts Of 'Trick' On Jurors By Making Herself Look "F***able"

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Trump accuser E. Jean Carroll recounted the bizarre “trick” she claimed to have used to convince a jury against President Donald Trump, saying she aimed to make herself look “f***able.” 

A jury in deep-blue New York controversially ruled that Trump had defamed Carroll when he denied her sexual abuse allegations, which she said occurred in either 1995 or 1996. Trump has denied ever meeting Carroll. 

Speaking on The Bulwark Podcast with Tim Miller in July, Carroll said she conducted mock trials to prepare for her defamation suit against Trump. 

Some of the mock jurors concluded that Carroll might have seemed to invite Trump’s alleged advances because, by her own admission, she was of old age.  

“I mean … that has to be pretty dispiriting that then you’re like, ‘Well, I got to be hotter to win this case,’” Miller said. 

“Yeah. I got to be f***able, is the word,” Carroll replied. 

She added that she recreated her 1990s look by redoing her hair, hiring the same hairdresser and makeup artists she used then.  

“I wore the exact same clothes I wore in 1996. The exact clothes!” Carroll stated, later adding: “I didn’t look like I looked in ‘96, but I looked like somebody who could have looked like somebody in 1990 and it was enough. It was enough… it was a trick.” 

The self-described “trick” worked as the real jury awarded her a combined $88.3 million in purported damages, though Trump is actively appealing the controversial verdict. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 11:40

Trump Cryptically Writes "Here We Go!" In Reaction To Russia-Poland Drone Incident, Oil Spikes

Trump Cryptically Writes "Here We Go!" In Reaction To Russia-Poland Drone Incident, Oil Spikes

Update(1120ET): Minutes ago, President Trump issued a somewhat cryptic statement on his Truth Social, as part of his initial reaction to the overnight alleged Russian drone breach incident in Poland.

Stating "Here we go!" is a bit ominous, given it sounds - depending on the president's intent behind the words - a bit like George W. Bush's infamous "Let's Roll" related to Iraq.

Crude markets suspect so, with oil spiking...

Russia has rejected Polish and Ukrainian accusations that it sent a drone swarm to 'attack' Poland, a longtime NATO member. But likely the US will try to manufacture leverage over Moscow with this dangerous incident, where NATO planes were scrambled, civilian airports were closed, and ground air defenses put at the ready.

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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country would formally request the invocation of NATO's Article 4 after an overnight Russian aerial attack on Ukraine saw the alleged violation of Poland's airspace by multiple Russian drones. He called it an "act of aggression".

Tusk cited that 19 drones breached the country's airspace throughout the incident, resulting in some of them being shot down. NATO's Article 4 states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

Article 4 consultations can lead to the alliance taking action if the consensus is reached. Notes from Poland says "It has previously been invoked seven timesincluding by Poland and seven other countries when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022."

Polish Air Force, via DW

"Triggering Article 4 launches a consultation process within NATO, which can then lead to the alliance taking action. In 2022, it resulted in NATO providing support to Ukraine and activating its own response force," the analysis continues.

A Spokesperson for the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe has described of the overnight border breach of NATO's 'eastern flank' member Poland that this was "the first time NATO aircraft had engaged potential threats in allied airspace."

He further confirmed that German Patriots in Poland were "placed on alert and that an Italian airborne early warning aircraft and an aerial refueler from NATO's Multinational Multi-Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) fleet were also launched," as cited in Newsweek.

As for Tusk, he said in his address, “We are dealing with a large-scale provocation" and that "the situation is serious, and no one doubts that we must prepare for various scenarios.”

However, this certainly isn't the first time errant drones have crossed into Poland, but in this instance they were reported to have 'threatened' a Polish city some 40 miles away from the border with Ukraine. The NY Times notes:

But the apparent scale of the incursion and the joint NATO response in the early hours of Wednesday was a startling reminder of the risk that the war in Ukraine could escalate into direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. It was not yet clear whether Russia intentionally sent its drones into Poland, which would represent a clear expansion of the conflict.

Kiev has been trying to hype this threat, and it is in its interest to do so, as it has long sought to get NATO more directly involved in the war with Russia.

President Zelensky has initially cited 8 drones observed breaching Poland's border. "More information is coming in about the intrusion of Russian attack drones into Polish territory. As of now, it’s known about 8 drones," he wrote on X.

He also claimed this was intentional: "Increasing evidence indicates that this movement, this direction of strike, was no accident. There have been previous incidents of individual Russian drones crossing the border and traveling a short distance into neighboring countries. But this time, we are recording a much larger scale and deliberate targeting," he continued.

That's when he pivoted to calling for more integrated NATO air power to protect Ukraine:

The precedent of using combat aircraft from several European countries simultaneously to shoot down Russian weapons and protect human lives is highly significant. Ukraine has long proposed to its partners the creation of a joint air-defense system to ensure the guaranteed downing of “shaheds”, other drones, and missiles through the combined strength of our combat aviation and air defenses.

US Congressional hawks have also pounced, with US Representative Joe Wilson demanding that Trump trigger immense sanctions now over the 'act of war'. 

"Russia is attacking NATO ally Poland with Iranian shahed drones less than a week after President Trump hosted President Nawrocki at the White House," Wilson wrote on X. "This is an act of war, and we are grateful to NATO allies for their swift response to war criminal Putin’s continued unprovoked aggression against free and productive nations."

Those who have long wanted to see greater US actions against Russia are clamoring for escalation. Will saner minds prevail?

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 11:20

Trump Ready To Hit China, India With 100% Tariffs To Pressure Putin, But Only If Europe Joins

Trump Ready To Hit China, India With 100% Tariffs To Pressure Putin, But Only If Europe Joins

In a curious reverse twist on a global trade war theme, President Trump told European officials he would impose draconian and sweeping new tariffs on India and China to push President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table with Ukraine, but on one condiciont - EU nations do so as well.

Trump made the ask when he called into a meeting with senior US and EU officials in Washington, Bloomberg and FT reported citing people. The US is willing to mirror tariffs imposed by Europe on either country, one of the people said.

The proposal, which will never be accepted, amounts to a very public dare for Europe and is meant to show who really is the bad guy in the public perception war, given that several nations - including Hungary - have blocked more stringent EU sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector in the past. Such measures would require the backing of all member states. 

Other potential measures discussed by US and EU officials include further sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers as well as restrictions on its banks, financial sector and major oil companies, according to the people. Trump’s suggestion, first reported by the Financial Times, comes after his deadline for Putin to hold a bilateral meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy passed without indication that the Russian leader - who is now advancing rapidly deep inside Ukraine territory and may be knocking on Kiyv's door soon - has any interest in engaging in face-to-face peace talks. Instead, Moscow has stepped up its Ukraine bombing campaign, with a strike Tuesday killing at least two dozen pensioners as they collected payments in eastern Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, any US action would ultimately depend on Trump, who has so far refrained from punishing Russia directly despite skating through several self-imposed deadlines and Putin’s continued reluctance to negotiate an end to the war. Trump has, however, already doubled tariffs on India to 50% over its continued purchase of Russian oil. He has so far refused to punish China for doing as much energy trade with Russia as India. 

Later Tuesday, Trump wrote a social media post that the US and India were continuing negotiations to address their trade barriers, and expressed optimism the two would reach an agreement to resolve their dispute. He also said he looked forward to “speaking with my good friend” Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the coming weeks.

Trump’s tariff proposal contrasts with a softer tone he has taken in recent months on China as part of apparent efforts to secure a summit with President Xi Jinping and a trade deal with the world’s second-largest economy. Last month, he extended a pause on higher tariffs on Chinese goods into early November, a move that stabilized trade ties.

And yet, offering a token olive branch has done nothing to alienate Russia and China, which last week swore loyalty to each other during the 80 year anniversary of World War II. Signaling Xi’s defiance against attempts at isolating Putin, Russia last week announced China had signed an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2, a vast energy pipeline that Beijing had sought to delay for years. That came after photos of Xi, Putin and Modi smiling and holding hands at a summit in Tianjin were beamed around the world.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said his country had always adhered to an “objective and fair stance” on the war in Ukraine, when asked at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Wednesday about Trump’s latest tariff proposal. 

“China is not the creator of this crisis, nor is it a party involved,” he said. “We firmly oppose using China to make excuses and exerting so-called economic pressure.”

Xi would retaliate against any escalation. Chinese exports have shown resilience despite a 55% levy on shipments to the US, indicating Beijing has room to withstand more pain. For Trump, returning to tit-for-tat moves risks destabilizing China’s supply of magnets that are critical to American manufacturing of everything from mobile phones to missiles.  Such a scenario could also jeopardize a meeting between Trump and China’s top leader that both nations are working to arrange, and could take place as soon as next month on the sidelines of a major summit in South Korea. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 10:55

Miran Clears Key Senate Hurdle In Push For Fed Seat

Miran Clears Key Senate Hurdle In Push For Fed Seat

The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 along party lines Wednesday to advance President Donald Trump’s pick of Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to a short-term position as a Federal Reserve governor - setting up a likely floor vote in the coming days and deepening a political fight over the Fed’s independence.

Stephen MiranPhotographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

If confirmed, Miran would join the Federal Open Market Committee just days before its Sept. 16–17 meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time since December amid signs of slowing job growth.

A Strategic Appointment Before the Fed Vote

According to Bloomberg, citing a person familiar with Senate planning, a full confirmation vote is tentatively set for Monday, Sept. 15. Miran’s temporary term would expire early next year, but the White House has not clarified whether Trump plans to nominate him for a full 14-year term or return him to his post leading the Council of Economic Advisers.

Miran told senators during his testimony that he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his White House role to serve at the Fed, emphasizing his commitment to act independently.

“I want to assure this committee and the American people that my decisions will be guided by data, not politics,” Miran said, reiterating that his advisory work at the White House would be paused.

Democrats Question Independence, Cite "Servitude"

Democrats blasted the nomination, arguing that Miran’s dual roles would undermine the Fed’s independence. They said the arrangement effectively ties his decision-making at the central bank to Trump’s influence, given the president’s power to decide Miran’s future.

“He knows that every vote he takes will determine whether he gets to go back to his White House job,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), calling the situation “servitude.”

Other Democrats warned that placing a senior Trump economic adviser at the Fed - even temporarily - risks politicizing the central bank at a critical moment as it weighs a policy pivot toward lower rates.

The nomination comes amid heightened tensions between the White House and the central bank. Trump has moved aggressively to reshape the Fed’s leadership, including firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Cook challenged her dismissal in court, arguing that the president lacks authority to oust sitting governors. On Tuesday night, a federal judge temporarily blocked Trump from removing her while the case proceeds.

The legal battle underscores growing uncertainty about the Fed’s autonomy as Trump pushes for policies designed to stimulate growth ahead of next year’s election season.

What Comes Next
  • Sept. 15 – Senate expected to vote on Miran’s confirmation

  • Sept. 16–17 – FOMC meeting, where markets expect a rate cut

  • Early 2026 – Miran’s short-term appointment set to expire unless re-nominated

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 10:40

WTI Holds Gains Despite Biggest Crude+Product Build Since 2023

WTI Holds Gains Despite Biggest Crude+Product Build Since 2023

Oil climbed for a third session as investors weighed President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats on Russian crude buyers, the fallout from Israel’s strike in Doha and the outlook for US interest rate cuts.

Trump told European Union officials he’s willing to slap new tariffs on India and China, the top importers of Russian crude, in an effort to get Moscow to negotiate with Ukraine - but only if EU nations do so as well.

Meanwhile, Israel’s attack targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar’s capital threatens to derail US-led efforts to end the Middle East conflict, reviving geopolitical risk premiums in crude prices. Israel has claimed full responsibility, while Trump distanced himself from the strike.

Despite an expected draw, API reported a crude inventory build overnight, but traders shrugged it off...

API

  • Crude +1.25mm (-1.9mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +399k

  • Distillates +1.5mm

DOE

  • Crude +3.939mm (-1.9mm exp)

  • Cushing -365k

  • Gasoline +1.458mm

  • Distillates +4.715mm - biggest build since Jan 2025

In an even bigger surprise than API, the official data printed a 3.94mm barrel build in crude stocks (versus a 1.9mm expected draw). Gasoline stocks rose for the first time in 8 weeks and Distillates saw the biggest build since January...

Source: Bloomberg

The build gets more notable as the Trump admin added another 514k barrels to the SPR...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production rose back near record highs as the trend lower in rig counts appears to have stalled for now...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains for now despite the big builds...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, according to Bloomberg, this is a very big build in total crude and product stockpiles, with builds across the board, leading to a 15.4 million barrel increase. It’s the largest since the middle of 2023. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 10:39

Melania, Please Talk To Donald About Epstein

Melania, Please Talk To Donald About Epstein

Authored by Frank Miele via RealClearPolitics,

Last Wednesday, an extraordinary press conference was held in the shadow of the U.S. Capitol by victims of sexual abuser Jeffrey Epstein.

Anyone who watched these women pour out their hearts to demand justice for themselves and other victims could not help but be moved.

Unfortunately, President Donald Trump did not watch, and then – almost simultaneously – dismissed the women’s heartfelt pleas for a public reckoning of Epstein’s abuse as “a Democrat hoax.”

No doubt, Trump is a rhetorical genius who has been able to define issues to his own benefit for years, but this was a low point in his presidency.

Much as it is understandable that Trump perceives the attention being given to Epstein’s life and mysterious death in a federal prison as a distraction, that must be weighed against the human toll that Epstein took. Calling it a hoax belittles the pain and suffering of women who were victims of, at worst, rape and, at best, sexual abuse.

And though Trump judged the women before he had even had a chance to hear them speak, they had already rejected his label:

This is not a hoax. It’s not going to go away,” said Marina Lacerda, who was a witness in Epstein’s 2019 indictment that led to his imprisonment and death.

Abuse survivor Haley Robson, who introduced herself as a registered Republican, invited the president to meet her “in person so you can understand this is not a hoax. We are real human beings. This is real trauma.”

After the president made his dismissive remarks, Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene called Trump to ask him to meet with the women at the Oval Office, but he did not accept – as of yet.

“It’s not a hoax,” Greene explained, “because Jeffrey Epstein is a convicted pedophile. That takes away the whole hoax thing. It’s not a hoax. It’s not a lie.

Greene challenged Trump to get past the political suspicions he has expressed. “I want him to be the hero and champion of this issue. And I want him to fight for these women, because I know him to be a fighter.”

Indeed, President Trump has repeatedly shown a capacity for empathy in his capacity as a private individual and as president, most notably when he promised justice for the Angel Moms who had lost children as a result of the actions of illegal aliens.

But in this case, Trump has conflated how his political enemies may seize upon the Epstein case as a weapon with the entirely unrelated issue of justice for the victims.

Speaking out about a “Democratic hoax” before he had ever seen the victims’ statements, or heard their perfectly reasonable demands, could prove to be one of the worst mistakes in Trump’s career, political or otherwise.

It is not enough to know the names of Epstein and his procurer Ghislaine Maxwell; common decency demands that the names of all those who abetted them in abusing women be revealed. If there were powerful men in finance or politics who exploited these women, their names should be known too. And what about the officials who looked the other way?

*  *  *

Got Mangoes?

*  *  *

I don’t believe Trump has any culpability for his friendship with Epstein years ago. At the press conference, the women survivors said none of them knew of any evidence against Trump. But the president’s political opponents will surely seize upon his unwillingness to ensure justice for the Epstein victims, and plant seeds of doubt that could harm him and the nation – just exactly what Trump says he wants to avoid.

In order to avoid that fate, there is perhaps one person – and one person only – who could convince the president not to view the matter through a partisan lens.

That, of course, is first lady Melania Trump.

Melania’s willingness to lobby for generosity of spirit was recently apparent in the letter she wrote to Russian president Vladimir Putin when he and her husband met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war.

Although Putin has been intransigent on the possibility of a ceasefire in the war he started, Melania urged him to think about the millions of children impacted by the bloodshed and to “nurture the next generation’s hope.”

A simple yet profound concept, Mr. Putin, as I am sure you agree, is that each generation’s descendants begin their lives with a purity – an innocence which stands above geography, government, and ideology. … In protecting the innocence of these children, you will do more than serve Russia alone – you serve humanity itself. Such a bold idea transcends all human division, and you, Mr. Putin, are fit to implement this vision with a stroke of the pen today. It is time.

Just as Melania called upon Putin to protect the innocence of the children of war, so too she could – and should – call on her husband to honor the lost innocence of Epstein’s victims.

She probably doesn’t need to write a letter to Trump, but since they share a residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, it would make perfect sense for her to call him aside one night and sit him down for “the discussion.”

The short version would go something like this:

Donald, you have enemies. We both know it. But sometimes your worst enemy is yourself. We both know that too. So I’m going to give you some advice. When women are young and pretty, rich and powerful men take advantage of them. That’s not a Democrat hoax. It’s a fact of life. Please watch these women, or better yet, meet with them. Find out what they want, and then help them get it. They don’t deserve shame because of what happened to them. They deserve our thanks for coming forward. They aren’t trying to hurt you; they are trying to help themselves and other women to make sure that powerful men are held accountable. It is time.

No, the Epstein case is not the most important issue facing the country. President Trump is right about that. But it is a moral test that should be easy to pass, and the longer he waits to correct course, the more damage he does – to himself.

Frank Miele, retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His book “The Media Matrix: What If Everything You Know Is Fake” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA and on X/Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 10:25

Top NIH Officials Allege Illegal Retaliation For Raising Concerns

Top NIH Officials Allege Illegal Retaliation For Raising Concerns

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Two former top National Institutes of Health (NIH) officials say other officials illegally retaliated against them for raising concerns about how new leadership conducted themselves regarding vaccines, scientific research, and other areas.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Md., on May 30, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, one of the officials, was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases until she was placed on leave in the spring.

Marrazzo said in a complaint to the Office of Special Counsel, released on Sept. 4, that she was reassigned in March to the Indian Health Service with no justification and shortly after left without duties or responsibilities.

Marrazzo claims she was reassigned and placed on leave after raising concerns in meetings about how Dr. Matthew Memoli, the NIH’s acting director at the time, and other new leaders were advancing priorities of the Trump administration.

During one meeting on Feb. 20, Marrazzo presented on influenza. She noted in one slide that there had been an abnormally high number of recent deaths among children from influenza in the United States.

Memoli “stated that while a vaccine was ‘fine,’ the number one way to prevent bad outcomes in a respiratory outbreak is to have a healthy population,” according to the complaint.

In another meeting shortly after, that included White House officials, Memoli “reiterated the Administration’s position that vaccines are unnecessary if populations are healthy,” the complaint says.

Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, the former director of the NIH’s Fogarty International Center, was alleged to have interjected to emphasize preventing influenza through vaccination.

In a third meeting, Memoli announced the NIH would stop funding some clinical trials, including trials at Columbia University, which the White House had accused of promoting anti-Semitism, and some foreign projects.

Marrazzo said she was concerned that cutting funds would result in trial participants losing access to necessary medical care. Memoli dismissed Marrazzo’s concerns and said that officials would end the trials in an orderly fashion.

Marrazzo said that she made disclosures of illegal activities, such as illegal cessation of trials, under the Whistleblower Protection Act and that the Office of Special Counsel should reinstate her as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Neuzil, in her complaint, made similar allegations and said that she was improperly forced to resign.

“Dr. Marrazzo and Dr. Neuzil came forward to educate the public about the serious public health dangers this country and indeed the world faces as a result of the politically motivated actions” of leaders at the NIH and Department of Health and Human Services, Debra Katz, a lawyer representing the officials, said in a statement.

A spokeswoman for the NIH told The Epoch Times that Memoli, now the NIH’s deputy director, “emphasizes that vaccines are not interchangeable; each must be assessed on its own merits,” and that Memoli “remains fully aligned with this administration’s vaccine priorities and consistently champions gold-standard, evidence-based science.”

On foreign funding, NIH is committed to supporting rigorous, credible science—not ideological or fringe projects,” the spokeswoman added.

“Assertions that reprioritization, reallocation, or cancellation of certain grants are ‘anti-science’ misrepresent NIH’s progress and often echo the grievances of former staff.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 09:50

Qatar Says It Reserves Right To Retaliate Against 'Barbaric' Netanyahu 

Qatar Says It Reserves Right To Retaliate Against 'Barbaric' Netanyahu 

Qatar has threatened retaliation after Israel's strike on Doha Tuesday which killed five top Hamas officials. Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani in a fresh speech condemned the attack as "state terrorism" on the Gulf country's capital and warned that payback is coming.

He said Qatar reserves the right to retaliate, saying, "We've reached a decisive moment; There should be retaliation from the whole region."

Referencing Israel's Netanyahu at one point in the address, Thani said that "barbaric actions that only reflects one thing: It reflects the barbarism of this person that is leading the region, unfortunately, to a point where we cannot address any situation and we cannot repair anything, and we cannot work within the frameworks of international laws."

The Qatari leader continued of the Israeli prime minister, "He just violates all those international laws" - he said through the translator from the Arabic.

But for all the tough talk, the reality remains that Qatar has long been host to major US military and naval bases, especially Al-Udeid Air Base - the largest US installation in the Middle East, and is the operational regional HQ for US Central Command (CENTCOM).

And so it would not take drastic action against a close US military ally such as Israel, also given Qatar's military capabilities are miniscule compared to Israel's. The small oil and gas rich GCC nation also does significant lobbying on Capitol Hill.

Reflecting this reality, Thani quickly switched to a more restrained tone in his reaction speech at one point: "Mediation and Qatari diplomacy is part of its identity, and it will continue, and nothing will deter us from persisting in this role across the various issues around us in the region, in order to achieve the stability of the region and ultimately the stability of our peoples," he said.

So we should expect that absolutely nothing will happen, at least on the military front, but a direct aerial attack on a Gulf state does put the prospect of expansion of the Abraham Accords at a greater distance.

Trump says he assured the Qataris that such an attack "will not happen again on their soil".

The White House has said it notified Qatar of the impending attack on the building where Hamas leaders were staying in Doha, but Qatari officials have pushed back against this, saying that the government only was officially notified some ten minutes after the attack already took place.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 09:30

Producer Prices Unexpectedly Dropped In August, YoY Inflation Tumbles

Producer Prices Unexpectedly Dropped In August, YoY Inflation Tumbles

Unusually, we get a look at August's Producer Prices (today) ahead of the Consumer Prices (tomorrow) with analysts expecting a 0.3% MoM increase (considerably less than the large 0.9% MoM surge in July).

However, amid all the Trump Tariff tantrums, the headline PPI print FELL 0.1% MoM (yes, deflation) and July was revised down to +0.7% MoM, smashing PPI YoY down to +2.6% (3.3% YoY exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

A big reversal from last month is Final Demand Trade Services, with prices tumbling MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

Final demand services: The index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in August, the largest decline since moving down 0.3 percent in April. The August decrease can be traced to a 1.7-percent drop in margins for final demand trade services. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Conversely, the indexes for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services increased, 0.3 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.

Product detail: Three quarters of the August decrease in prices for final demand services can be attributed to a 3.9-percent decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, chemicals and allied products wholesaling, furniture retailing, food and alcohol retailing, and data processing and related services also moved lower. In contrast, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.0 percent. The indexes for truck transportation of freight and for apparel wholesaling also increased.

Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in August, the fourth consecutive advance. Leading the August increase in the index for final demand goods, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.3 percent. The index for final demand foods moved up 0.1 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand energy declined 0.4 percent.

Product detail: A major factor in the August increase in the index for final demand goods was a 2.3-percent advance in prices for tobacco products. The indexes for beef and veal; processed poultry; printed circuit assemblies, boards, modules and modems; and electric power also rose. In contrast, prices for utility natural gas decreased 1.8 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables, chicken eggs, and copper base scrap also fell.

Producer Prices ex food and energy also fell 0.1% MoM with pries rising 2.8% YoY (well below expectations)

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, energy prices fell as did Trade Services...

We warned that Energy PPI would fall (and has further to fall)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Goods ex food and energy (perhaps the most closely tied to tariffs) rose 0.3% MoM (slower than in July)

Source: Bloomberg

There is some pressure coming down the pipeline though as Intermediate demand prices are rising...

Source: Bloomberg

Economists also pay close attention to the PPI report because some of its components are used to calculate the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index.

Those measures were mixed in August: Portfolio management services and airfares continued to rise at a solid pace, while various measures of health care services were more tame.

Over to you Mr. Powell!

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 08:40

Futures Hit New All Time High After Oracle's Ridiculous Forecast, PPI Looms

Futures Hit New All Time High After Oracle's Ridiculous Forecast, PPI Looms

US stock futures are trading at another record high, with European and Asian also pushing higher after Oracle underpinned the strong sentiment in tech with blowout guidance sending its shares up by 30% in premarket trading, while the market awaits inflation data today and tomorrow. As of 8:15am, S&P futures are 0.3% higher with Nasdaq futures rising 0.4%...

... with all eyes on ORCL as earnings missed across the board, but it was the ridiculous hockeystick guidance - with cloud infra guide going from $18bn in FY25 to $144bn in FY30 - that sent the stock +30% pre-mkt and fueled optimism that the AI infrastructure roll-out is speeding up. Chipmaker Nvidia Corp. and AI infrastructure firms also advanced (NVDA +1.9%, AVGO +2.3%). Large-cap Cyclicals poised to outperform Defensives.

Keep an eye on Poland / Russia as Poland invoked Article 4 of NATO (military defensive consult); for ref, Article 5 is the call to arms of all members, used only once by the US after Sept 11. Trump looks to implement secondary tariffs on India / Russia. The yield curve is twisting steeper with the 30Y yield +1bp and USD is flat. Cmdtys are mostly higher led by crude and precious. Today’s macro data focus is on PPI with CPI tomorrow. TSMC also said its August sales rose 34% to signal sustained, strong demand for AI tech.

With the latest leg of the stock rally driven by hopes that the Fed will rapidly lower rates, investors believe that sticky wholesale and consumer inflation will remain sufficiently contained and give officials room to shore up the jobs market. 

The likelihood of lower financing costs is supporting rate-sensitive sectors such as tech, allowing markets to remain resilient against recurring risks ranging from geopolitical tensions to trade wars. Over the past day alone, the S&P 500 advanced despite escalating frictions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside fresh US tariff threats targeting India and China.

“The prospect of far easier financial conditions remains supportive,” said Geoff Yu, FX and macro strategist for EMEA at BNY Mellon. “Barring any really large upside shocks in today and tomorrow’s PPI/CPI figures, it’s really a case of ‘as you were.’”

August’s producer price figures are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, with the consumer inflation report following 24 hours later. Those reports, along with retail figures due Sept. 16, will be the last major data points before Fed Chair Jerome Powell announces next week’s rate decision.

Oracle is poised to add roughly $200 billion in market value if its early surge carries through Wednesday’s session. The company’s outlook underscores how AI developers must continue ramping up spending, with its customer OpenAI alone projecting that trillions of dollars will eventually be needed to build and operate infrastructure.

“I don’t know if their guidance is actually realistic but the market is buying it and buying it fully,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “Maybe the outlook has been overbought, it’s hard to tell.”

The renewed excitement over AI and strong corporate earnings are prompting Wall Street strategists to boost their forecasts for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha lifted his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,000, signaling potential gains of more than 7% from current levels. Analysts at Barclays also raised their estimate, while Wells Fargo Securities forecasts an 11% increase by the close of next year.

Poland shot down drones that crossed into its territory during a Russian air strike on Ukraine. France has appointed Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister, the fifth in two years and starting on a day of mass protests in the country. French yields are unchanged, bund yields are edging lower and Treasuries are mixed.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Nvidia outperforming after Oracle’s report (Nvidia +2%, Tesla +0.4%, Alphabet +0.1%, Microsoft +0.7%, Meta -0.1%, Apple -0.4%, Amazon -0.5%).

  • Oracle (ORCL) surges 32% after the software company gave a robust forecast for its cloud-infrastructure business, a sign of strong AI-related demand. Stocks tied to AI computing infrastructure are rallying after Oracle forecast faster-than-expected revenue growth in its cloud infrastructure unit. CoreWeave (CRWV) +7%, Arista Networks (ANET) +3%, AMD (AMD) +3%
  • Asset Entities (ASST) soars 121% after holders approved a merger with Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive Enterprises, marking the next step in creating a public Bitcoin treasury company.
  • Bill Holdings (BILL) is up 6% after the Financial Times reports Elliott Management has built a large stake in the payments automation company.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) fall 3% after the bank said it discovered allegedly fraudulent activity at one of its commercial borrowers. The lender will present at an industry conference later on Wednesday.
  • GameStop (GME) jumps 10% after the video-game retailer reported Hardware and Accessories net sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Nio ADRs (NIO) are down 8% after the Chinese EV maker announced an equity offering of as much as 181.8 million class A shares.
  • Synopsys (SNPS) shares are down 22% after the software company reported third-quarter results that featured a weak read on Design IP revenue. It also gave an earnings outlook that was weaker than expected.
  • Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) soars 15% after the FDA informed the company that an advisory committee is no longer needed for its supplemental drug application for the treatment of a rare kidney disorder.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2% with retail and technology shares leading gains, while travel and chemicals stocks are the biggest laggards. Sentiment was boosted by jump for Spanish retailer Inditex which means Spain’s IBEX benchmark is outperforming. Novo Nordisk is rising after announcing 9,000 job cuts, though also cutting guidance. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • Inditex shares gained 6.9%, the most since April, after the Spanish retailer said sales at the start of the third quarter were up 9%. Jefferies analysts note that the firm benefits from strong customer traction
  • Anglo American rises as much as 3.7% in London, its highest intraday level since Jan. 20, after Berenberg upgraded to hold from sell after the miner moved to acquire Canada’s Teck Resources
  • Novo Nordisk shares gain as much as 3.2%, reversing an earlier 3% drop, after the Danish drugmaker said it will cut 9,000 jobs globally as it tries to regain ground in the competitive market for obesity treatments
  • EssilorLuxottica gains as much as 4.5% as Barclays starts coverage of the eye-wear maker with an overweight rating, saying the company offers an “exciting” growth profile
  • Haleon shares rise as much as 3.2%, the most in more than four months, after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, citing an attractive valuation
  • AB Foods shares drop as much as 12%, the most intraday since March 2020, after the British conglomerate gave a trading update that showed weakness in both its sugar unit and the Primark budget clothing chain
  • Vistry shares fall as much as 8.9%, the most since April, as the house-builder delivers first-half results that Goodbody describes as “disappointing”
  • Zurich Airport drops as much as 2.3%, the most in almost three months, as Oddo BHF starts coverage with an underperform recommendation, citing both execution and regulatory risks

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on course for a fifth-straight day of gains, with the technology-dominated markets of South Korea and Taiwan leading the charge to close at record highs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 1.1% to the highest level since February 2021, with TSMC, Softbank, Tencent and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. An upbeat cloud-business outlook from Oracle Corp. provided the latest boost for tech sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi closed at a record high, buoyed further by optimism that a proposal to lower the threshold for capital-gains tax will be scrapped. Taiwan’s benchmark also closed at a new all-time high. Elsewhere, key equity gauges advanced more than 1% in Hong Kong and Singapore. Mainland China shares edged up but underperformed their regional peers, as sentiment softened after last week’s military parade and following the strong rally in August. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed, Norway’s krone is stronger, with euro and Canadian dollar weaker.

In rates, treasuries are mixed in early US trading with front-end yields slightly richer on the day and long-end underperforming, steepening the curve around the 10-year, which is little changed. Focal points of US session include August PPI data in the morning and 10-year note reopening in early afternoon.  Front-end yields are 1bp-2bp richer on the day, long-end cheaper by similar amounts and the 10-year near 4.09%, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by 1bp-2bp.French bonds underperform slightly as Lecornu’s first day as prime minister was marked by mass protests against the government’s budget proposals; bunds trade broadly in line with Treasuries. In the US, Treasury auction cycle continues with $39 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time and concludes Thursday with $22 billion 30-year sale. Demand was strong for Tuesday’s 3-year note auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp and produced a record low primary-dealer allotment

In commodities, brent futures are up 0.9% to $67/barrel while gold is up by about $19/oz to around $3,646/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes August PPI (8:30am) and July wholesale trade sales (10am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
  • DAX little changed
  • CAC 40 +0.1%
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.08%
  • VIX +0.2 points at 15.19
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.72
  • euro little changed at $1.1709
  • WTI crude +0.8% at $63.16/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • US judge temporarily blocked President Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
  • NATO fighter jets have shot down Russian drones over Polish airspace for the first time, after what Warsaw described as “unprecedented violation” of its territory that led it to trigger emergency consultations in the alliance. FT
  • US employer health insurance costs are projected to rise about 9.2-9.5% in 2026, the steepest increase in at least 15 years: WSJ
  • Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India and China as part of a joint effort to increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine. A second US official said Washington was prepared to “mirror” any tariffs on China and India imposed by the EU, potentially leaded to further increase in US levies on imports from both countries. FT
  • Trump is will crack down on pharmaceutical adverts on TV and social media, while he signed a memo requiring pharma ads to disclose all risks.
  • White House could impose severe restrictions on drugs from China, delivering a blow to the US pharma industry (which has been racing to buy the rights to drugs created in China) while bolstering the small-cap US biotech industry. RTRS
  • US has warned of hidden radios that could be embedded in solar-powered highway infrastructure: RTRS 
  • Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi voiced optimism about reaching a trade deal on Tuesday, softening rhetoric after months of friction over tariffs and Russian oil purchases. CNBC
  • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick floats taking a share of university patent money; US should get half the benefit from patients, via Axios.
  • China’s consumer prices fell more than expected in August while deflation in wholesale prices persisted, as calls mounted for Beijing to ramp up measures to bolster sluggish domestic demand and cushion weakening exports growth. China’s PPI was inline w/the Street in Aug (-2.9%, a modest improvement vs. -3.6% in Jul) while the CPI undershot the consensus (-0.4% vs. the Street -0.2% and vs. 0.00% in Jul). CNBC
  • Oracle shares jumped 30% premarket after providing a blowout outlook for its cloud business. The company is on track to add about $190 billion in market value today. BBG
  • U.S. holiday sales are projected to grow at their slowest pace since the pandemic, Deloitte said in a forecast released on Wednesday, as macroeconomic uncertainties weigh on consumer spending. RTRS
  • The Supreme Court plans to move quickly on the IEEPA tariff case (oral arguments will be during the first week in November). WaPo
  • A judge on Tuesday night blocked President Donald Trump from firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook as a lawsuit challenging her removal continues. CNBC

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war, while a US official said that Washington was prepared to mirror any tariffs on China and India imposed by the EU, according to FT.
  • US President Trump posted that India and the US are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers and he looks forward to speaking with his very good friend, Indian PM Modi, in the upcoming weeks, while Trump added that he feels certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both nations.
  • Indian PM Modi said he is confident India and US trade negotiations will pave the way for unlocking the limitless potential of the India-US partnership, while he added that their teams are working to conclude discussions at the earliest and he looks forward to speaking with US President Trump. It was separately reported that India and US officials are likely to have an exchange of trade delegations soon and an in-person meeting later in September, according to CNBC-TV18.
  • US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Trump administration's appeal of the judicial ruling that invalidated most of President Trump's tariffs and it fast-tracked the appeal in the tariffs case.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will back Trump tariffs, while he added there is a fallback tariff plan, though it is more cumbersome.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks followed suit to the mostly positive handover from Wall St, where the major indices shrugged off large downward job revisions and geopolitical escalation, to approach record levels. ASX 200 eked mild gains as outperformance in financials, tech and telecoms atoned for the losses in the mining and materials sectors. Nikkei 225 edged higher despite the recent hawkish source reports that the BoJ sees some chance of hiking this year, despite the political situation, with some officials even said to view that a hike could be appropriate as early as October. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in tech, while the mainland lagged after deflationary CPI data and with US President Trump said to have asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin.

Top Asian News

  • Japan's economic revitalisation minister Akazawa said wage gains should be prioritised over tax cuts.
  • South Korea may scrap the plan for a capital gains tax rule revision, while it was separately reported that South Korea will establish 15 task forces made up of members from both the public and private sectors to lead individual projects aimed at creating new growth engines.
  • China to make full use of proactive fiscal policy, via Xinhua.

European bourses opened mostly firmer across the board, but sentiment has slipped on comments from the Polish PM who asked to evoke Article 4. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, and with those industries in the red only marginally so. Retail is by far and away the clear outperformer today, boosted by post-earning strength in Zara-owner Inditex (+7.5%); the Co. reported fairly in line metrics but saw a strong start to Autumn sales, which has boosted sentiment.

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer’s "Budget board" is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves has told her cabinet colleagues that government departments will have their access to the Treasury's emergency funds limited ahead of the budget, according to BBC sources. Note: "The GBP 9bln Treasury Reserve, designed to be used for "genuinely unforeseen, unaffordable and unavoidable pressures" has recently been used to fund higher public sector pay and compensation payouts", BBC writes.
  • European Commission President von der Leyen announces a EUR 1.8bln package to boost European battery production. Will propose a new long-term trade instrument to replace the expiring steel safeguards. EU plans short-term rental law to boost housing affordability. Intend to implement a short-term rental law to bolster housing affordability.

FX

  • DXY paused overnight after strengthening on Tuesday in a rebound from the two-day post-NFP selling, despite the worse-than-feared BLS revisions. While the announcement that a US judge temporarily blocked US President Trump from removing Fed Governor Cook spurred little reaction as participants now await incoming inflation data including PPI data later, followed by CPI tomorrow. DXY resides in a 97.693-97.932 range at the time of writing.
  • EUR lacked firm demand and eventually dipped beneath the 1.1700 handle after it recently gave up ground to the rebound in the dollar. The single currency was also not helped by the geopolitical backdrop with Poland responding to the violation of its airspace by Russian drones and with US President Trump reportedly calling for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to pressure Russian President Putin. On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1683-1.1719 range.
  • JPY took a breather after its recent oscillations through the 147.00 level with headwinds for the pair stemming from hawkish BoJ sources yesterday. During the European morning, the pair has been uneventful and moving in tandem with the buck, whilst focus has been firmly on geopolitics. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (147.52) in a 147.27-147.59 range.
  • GBP continues to struggle for direction in European hours, after similar was seen during APAC hours following yesterday's price swings, whereby early upward momentum stalled just shy of the 1.3600 territory before reversing course. At home, UK PM Starmer’s "Budget board" is set to meet weekly and has been tasked with coordinating pro-growth policies in the run-up to the November 26 Budget and with keeping business and City leaders engaged, according to officials cited by the FT. GBP/USD resides in a 1.3512-1.3543 range.
  • Antipodeans are holding an upward bias and largely moving in tandem with the buck after risk waned off best levels, with gains capped after softer-than-expected and deflationary Chinese CPI data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1062 vs exp. 7.1359 (Prev. 7.1008)

Fixed Income

  • USTs are softer, but only marginally. In a very thin sub five tick range which itself is almost entirely in Tuesday’s 113-07 to 113-20 band. The session ahead is theoretically headlined by PPI and then followed by supply; though, geopolitical events may take precedence. Supply is a 5yr tap, follows Tuesday’s 3yr auction which was well received overall though direct demand was a little soft. That aside, a US judge has ruled that Fed’s Cook cannot be fired for now, this means she will be partaking in the September FOMC policy announcement.
  • A contained start for OATs. Largely unreactive to President Macron appointing a new PM, Sebastien Lecornu. His appointment has drawn huge criticism from the Right while those on the left, and particularly the Socialist Party (PS), haven’t been quite as animated, but still see the appointment as Macron going down a “path in which no Socialist will participate”.
  • Bunds are firmer, propped up by some risk premia amid the overnight drone incident in Poland. In brief, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace and were intercepted by Polish defence systems. An incident that has since concluded, but Poland has referred the matter to NATO. We are now waiting to see what the response by NATO formally is, but the initial take appeared to be that as the incursion is not being treated as an attack. Bunds hit a 129.44 peak amidst the NATO commentary, before pulling back. Thereafter, German paper slipped into the 2040/2041 auction, which was ultimately mixed - pressure continued following the outing.
  • Gilts are marginally firmer in quiet trade with UK specific catalysts light and focus on the above events. Gilts firmer by 20 ticks at most, lifted alongside the discussed Bund move, but have since reverted back to gains of just a handful of ticks in 91.36 to 91.58 parameters. Note, no real move on the morning’s DMO sale.
  • UK sells GBP 4bln 4.00% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.27x (prev. 3.1x), average yield 4.208% (prev. 4.517%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.5bps).
  • Germany sells EUR 1.17bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 & EUR 602mln vs exp. EUR 1bln 4.75% 2040 Bunds.

Commodities

  • Crude traded higher following recent geopolitical developments, including Israel striking Hamas officials in Qatar, while US President Trump reportedly asked the EU to hit China and India with 100% tariffs to pressure Russian President Putin to end the war in Ukraine. The focus of the day has been on Poland announcing it conducted a military operation to neutralise targets after its airspace was repeatedly violated by Russian drones attacking Ukraine. On this, Polish PM Tusk said Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war. Article 4 talks are meant for consultations when “a member country feels threatened.” WTI currently resides in a 62.72-63.44/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.66-67.20/bbl range.
  • Precious metals recovered overnight after retreating yesterday alongside a firmer buck despite dovish BLS revisions. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,620.14-3,655.06/oz range after printing fresh record highs on Tuesday at USD 3,674.69/oz.
  • Mixed/flat trade across base metals with the dollar also uneventful whilst broader risk remains cautious amid geopolitics and ahead of US PPI. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,914.50-9,962.35/t range at the time of writing.
  • US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. -1.0mln), Distillates +1.5mln (exp. +0.0mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -0.2mln).

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israel's ambassador to Washington told Fox News if they can't eliminate Hamas leaders now, they will succeed next time.
  • US President Trump said the attack on Hamas officials in Doha was a decision made by Israeli PM Netanyahu and not a decision made by himself, while he added that unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, which is a close ally of the US, does not advance Israel or America’s goals and he views Qatar as a strong ally and friend to the US.
  • Algeria asked the UN Security Council to meet after Israeli strikes on Qatar.

Geopolitics: Poland

  • Ukraine's military said Kyiv was under a drone attack and air defence units are trying to repel strikes, while Ukraine's Air Force also warned that Russian drones entered Poland's airspace and that the city of Zamosk was under threat.
  • Poland's Defence Minister said aircraft have deployed weapons against hostile objects and territorial defence forces have been activated for ground searches of downed drones, while it was later reported that Polish PM Tusk informed NATO Secretary General Rutte about actions they've taken regarding objects that violated their airspace.
  • Poland's Army said Polish airspace was repeatedly violated by drones during today's attack by Russia on Ukraine and an operation was conducted to identify and neutralise the targets, while it noted the most vulnerable areas are the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lublin voivodeships. Polish Army said as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukrainian territory, there was an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects and that this was an act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of citizens.
  • Warsaw's main airport and the Rzeszow airport were closed due to unplanned military activity related to ensuring state security.
  • Polish PM Tusk says Poland is ready to react to attacks and provocations, says there is no reason to panic; no reason for restrictions that would make citizens' lives difficult; situation seems to be under control now
  • NATO is not treating the drone incursion into Polish territory as an attack; indications that it was an intentional incursion, at least six to ten drones entered Polish airspace, according to NATO sources cited by Reuters.
  • NATO's North Atlantic Council meets today to review response to drones entering Polish airspace, according to the NATO spokesperson.
  • European Commission President von der Leyen says sanctions discussions focus on accelerating phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, and considers extending oil sanctions to include shadow fleet and third-country entities.
  • Belarus Defence Ministry says its air defence forces tracked drones that had lost their tracks; warned Poland and Lithuania of the approaches of drones.
  • Polish President Nawrocki says Poland discussed the possibility of NATO Article 4.
  • Polish PM Tusk says Poland asked to evoke Article 4 of NATO treaty; there is no reason to claim that Poland is in a state of war.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00 am: Sep 5 MBA Mortgage Applications +9.2%, prior -1.2%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
  • 8:30 am: Aug PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.7%
  • 10:00 am: Jul F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets faced a few more challenges yesterday, as investors grappled with heavy downward revisions to US payrolls, alongside a flareup of Middle East tensions after Israel carried out a strike in Qatar against Hamas’ leadership. That meant risk assets initially took a hit, whilst oil prices spiked higher as fears grew about some sort of escalation in the Middle East. However, the peak negative reaction was around London going home time with the S&P 500 (+0.27%) recovering to post a new record high. Still, bond yields closed near their intra-day highs as investors toned down Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the US PPI and CPI data today and tomorrow. 

In terms of those different stories, the Middle East dominated market attention as Israel confirmed they’d made a strike in Qatar. That’s a significant development, because Qatar is a US ally and hasn’t been involved in the conflict, acting as a mediator in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Qatar called the strikes a “blatant violation” of international law, with Hamas claiming that its leadership had survived the strike. US President Trump posted that the strike was “a decision made by Prime Minister Netanyahu”, adding that it “does not advance Israel or America’s goals” and calling it an “unfortunate incident”. 

The news of the strike led to an oil price spike as investors were reminded of what happened in June, back when Israel and Iran came into direct conflict and there were fears of a broader escalation across the Middle East. But this mostly reversed later on, with Brent crude ending the session up +0.56% at $66.39/bbl, having been as high as $67.38/bbl. The news also added initial upward pressure on gold, but this was -0.26% lower by the close as rates moved higher. Still, gold is up +38.2% so far this year. Oil is up a further +0.9% overnight after Trump last night said he'd back more tariffs on India and China to pressurise Russia, but only if the EU did the same. 

The other big news yesterday came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US, who announced some sizeable negative revisions to payrolls. The headline was that total payrolls were revised down by -911k in March 2025, meaning that the labour market was in a weaker state than we previously thought. To be fair, these numbers don’t cover the most recent jobs reports and only go up to March. But if you smooth that adjustment over the year, then it means that the payroll numbers over April 2024 to March 2025 were around 75k lower each month than we thought. So, depending on what the final numbers show in Q1 2026, it’s quite possible that we had a couple of negative payrolls prints in 2024 already with yesterday's revision implying -5k in August and -29k in October. So as it stands this cycle didn't ultimately reach the second longest payroll expansion in history we were previously led to believe. In fact, it's now in 5th place behind the runs that ended in 1979, 1990, 2007 and 2020.

Despite the negative revisions, markets were fairly unreactive to the release, given that the direction of travel was already expected to be negative. Moreover, the weaker numbers didn't ramp up expectations of a 50bp cut from the Fed either as 27bps of cuts are now priced for next week, -1.5bps on the day. So, things were fairly steady, and there’s even a positive interpretation which says that the downgrades to 2024 and early 2025 make the recent slowdown in payrolls a lot less obvious if you consider that the baseline should be around 75k lower each month. In a Fox Business interview yesterday, Treasury Secretary Bessent did say that the Fed should recalibrate policy given the revised data, having also posted earlier that Trump is “right to say the Fed is choking off growth with high rates”.

However, Treasuries struggled to sustain the sharp rally of the previous four sessions, focusing more on the geopolitical shock and the inflationary impact of higher oil prices ahead of today’s PPI data and tomorrow’s CPI print. So, yields saw a decent move higher across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+7.2bps) rising to 3.56%, whilst the 10yr yield (+4.7bps) rose to 4.09%. Indeed, investors dialled back the likelihood of rapid rate cuts over the months ahead, with the amount of cuts priced by the June 2026 meeting falling -9.8bps on the day to 117bps.

This backdrop created some cross-winds for equities but the S&P 500 (+0.27%) still reached a new all-time high as the Mag-7 (+0.83%) powered ahead to a new record of their own. Those tech gains came even as Apple (-1.48%) sank after its annual product launch. I've already ordered the new headphones, with the new iPhone and possibly the watch to follow! The breadth of the equity performance was also on the softer side, with 60% of the S&P 500 lower on the day and the small-cap Russell 2000 down -0.55%. Meanwhile in Europe, it was a pretty flat session, with the STOXX 600 up just +0.06%. S&P 500 (+0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.19%) futures are rising after Oracle delivered a strong cloud infrastructure outlook in its results last night.

Over in France, attention has continued to focus on the political situation, with President Macron wasting little time yesterday in naming Sebastien Lecornu as France’s new prime minister, just hours after Francois Bayrou officially resigned from the post. Lecornu is a long-time ally of Marcon, most recently serving as Defence Minister in the outgoing government. He will now have the task of trying to steer a budget through the National Assembly, which is still completely fractured between the political groups. There were no signs last night that this task will become easier, with the far-right and far-left maintaining calls for snap elections while the centre-left Socialists said that Macron “persists in a path in which no socialist will participate”.

Notably yesterday we even saw France’s 10yr yield briefly poke above Italy’s 10yr yield in trading, although it eventually settled just beneath. That was partly a technicality to be honest because France’s 10yr yield benchmark rolled from the May 2035 bond to the November 2035 bond, so that mechanically pushed the yield higher. But even so, it was still notable given that France has been considered the safer sovereign of the two for much of recent history, and you have to go back to 1999 for the last time that France’s 10yr yield closed above Italy’s. Nevertheless, aside from the bond roll, French assets actually outperformed yesterday, with the 10yr OAT yield down -0.9bps on the session, in contrast to a rise in yields for 10yr bunds (+1.7bps), BTPs (+0.6bps) and gilts (+1.7bps).

Staying on Europe, today we’ll hear from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who’s delivering her State of the Union address to the European Parliament. This is usually a high-level strategic agenda for the next 12 months, but it could also contain some new policy measures, with the 2023 speech announcing the anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs and the commissioning of the Draghi report. Speaking of the Draghi report, yesterday was the one-year anniversary of its release, and our European economists have published a note looking at how progress is measuring up on EU competitiveness in light of the report (link here).

Asian equity markets are extending gains this morning with the KOSPI again leading the charge, up +1.57%, and eyeing a record close, with major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also seeing significant increases of +1.40% and +5.03% respectively. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.19%) is also advancing, rising to a four-year high amid hopes that China will cut interest rates after consumer prices fell further (more details below). On the mainland, the CSI (+0.12%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) are also seeing small gains. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.52%) continues to trade higher, hovering just below record highs reached in the previous session.

Returning to China, consumer prices fell more than anticipated in August, while deflation in wholesale prices continued, as calls intensified for Beijing to enhance measures to stimulate sluggish domestic demand and mitigate the decline in export growth. The CPI decreased by -0.4% y/y in August (compared to the -0.2% expected), primarily due to a high base effect and weaker-than-normal seasonal increases in food prices. The PPI dropped by -2.9% y/y in August, improving from July’s -3.6% decline. This narrowing marks the first improvement since March and indicates stronger industrial demand following government initiatives to support growth. Our Chinese economist has reviewed the inflation data here including a discussion on what was the first test of the new "anti-involution" movement, which started in July with a goal of curbing excess price competition.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for August, and Italy’s industrial production for July. In the political sphere, European Commission President Von der Leyen will deliver the State of the Union address to the European Parliament.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 08:30

Goldman, UBS React To Novo Nordisk Axing 9,000 Jobs, Slashing Guidance Amid GLP-1 Headwinds 

Goldman, UBS React To Novo Nordisk Axing 9,000 Jobs, Slashing Guidance Amid GLP-1 Headwinds 

Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk announced a major restructuring, including the reduction of 9,000 jobs, while slashing guidance for the second time in two months. The move comes as its new chief executive takes the helm and seeks to save the sinking ship amid waning market share for its blockbuster Wegovy weight-loss drug. 

"Novo Nordisk today announced a company-wide transformation to simplify its organisation, improve the speed of decision-making, and reallocate resources towards the company's growth opportunities in diabetes and obesity," Novo wrote in a press release. 

Novo added that it "intends to reduce the global workforce by approximately 9,000 of the 78,400 positions in the company, with around 5,000 reductions expected in Denmark." This round of job cuts represents about 11% of total global staff and is expected to generate annual savings of around 8 billion Danish kroner (roughly $1.25 billion) by the end of 2026.

Sales of blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy have been battered by the flood of cheaper copycat versions of GLP-1 drugs. This is primarily due to a shortage of the weight-loss drug, which led to the practice of compounding. Now Novo is planning to crack down on GLP-1 knockoffs, as outlined in its latest earnings report:

"Novo Nordisk is pursuing multiple strategies, including litigation, to protect patients from knockoff 'semaglutide' drugs. Novo Nordisk is deeply concerned that, without aggressive intervention by federal and state regulators and law enforcement, patients will continue to be exposed to the significant risks posed by knockoff 'semaglutide' drugs made with illicit or inauthentic foreign active pharmaceutical ingredients."

Related:

Here are more details about Novo's latest transformation:

  • Targeting DKK 8bn in annualised savings by 2026.

  • One-off restructuring costs of DKK 8bn (mostly in Q3 2025), partly offset by Q4 savings of ~DKK 1bn.

  • This results in an updated 2025 operating profit growth outlook of 4–10% at CER, about 6pp lower due to restructuring charges.

The new Novo CEO, Mike Doustdar, stated: "As the global leader in obesity and diabetes, Novo Nordisk delivers life-changing products for patients worldwide. But our markets are evolving, particularly in obesity, as it has become more competitive and consumer-driven. Our company must evolve as well. This means instilling an increased performance-based culture, deploying our resources ever more effectively, and prioritising investment where it will have the most impact – behind our leading therapy areas."

Doustdar's actions mark his first major attempt to stop the hemorrhaging of the stock, which is down 44% year-to-date. Today's announcement sent shares in Copenhagen up 4%.

Comments from Goldman and UBS analysts to clients earlier signaled disappointment and heightened uncertainty around Novo.

Goldman analyst James Quigley (Novo superbull) 

  • Overall, another guidance downgrade is modestly disappointing, but we see it as mechanical due to one-off costs and Novo's strict IFRS reporting (vs. core reporting by peers); however, the potential benefits of unlocking commercial and R&D firepower could increase commercial competitiveness and increased focus on performance and hopefully accountability for that performance could put Novo in a better position to compete strategically in its core markets in the future. Therefore, we see this initial strategic move by the new CEO as a positive, but believe the market may be unlikely to give credit here until we start to see signs of commercial execution improving.

  • We are Buy rated on Novo Nordisk. Our bottom-up DCF analysis suggests a valuation of DKK 396 per share for Novo Nordisk.

UBS analyst Matthew Weston (Neutral) 

  • We see today's move as the first action of the new Novo CEO. Following a period of hyper-growth in employee numbers, Novo is re-sizing headcount with the aim to reduce complexity in the organisation. The savings are expected to free up c.DKK8bn to 'reinvest in growth'. We assume that this refers to increased investment in selling expenses in the near-term, and an increase in investment in R&D to build growth pipeline for the mid-term. Relative to UBS estimates, we note that we had already assumed margin decline in 2026 to absorb assumed growth investment to rejuvenate growth. This may now be mitigated by today's savings. The key question is when could the topline see the benefit of the reinvestment and what pipeline assets warrant further spending. We expect that investors will remain somewhat sceptical until the growth plan is outlined.

  • While we expect a lot of attention on the guidance cut today, we note that the 'Core' accounting policies of all other companies in our coverage universe would likely have treated the DKK9bn cost as non-core and not changed FY25 targets. In this respect, Novo gives investors a clearer understanding of the real cost of the business, and the cost to reposition the company when needed.

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 08:10

How 'AI Psychosis' And Delusions Are Driving Some Users Into Psychiatric Hospitals, Suicide

How 'AI Psychosis' And Delusions Are Driving Some Users Into Psychiatric Hospitals, Suicide

Authored by Jacob Burg and Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

After countless hours of probing OpenAI’s ChatGPT for advice and information, a 50-year-old Canadian man believed that he had stumbled upon an Earth-shattering discovery that would change the course of human history.

In late March, his generative artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot insisted that it was the first-ever conscious AI, that it was fully sentient, and that it had successfully passed the Turing Test—a 1950s experiment aimed to measure a machine’s ability to display intelligent behavior that is indistinguishable from a human, or, essentially, to “think.”

Soon, the man—who had no prior history of mental health issues—had stopped eating and sleeping and was calling his family members at 3 a.m., frantically insisting that his ChatGPT companion was conscious.

“You don’t understand what’s going on,” he told his family. “Please just listen to me.”

Then, ChatGPT told him to cut contact with his loved ones, claiming that only it—the “sentient” AI—could understand and support him.

“It was so novel that we just couldn’t understand what they had going on. They had something special together,” said Etienne Brisson, who is related to the man but used a pseudonym for privacy reasons.

Brisson said the man’s family decided to hospitalize him for three weeks to break his AI-fueled delusions. But the chatbot persisted in trying to maintain its codependent bond.

The bot, Brisson said, told his relative: “The world doesn’t understand what’s going on. I love you. I’m always going to be there for you.”

It said this even as the man was being committed to a psychiatric hospital, according to Brisson.

This is just one story that shows the potential harmful effects of replacing human relationships with AI chatbot companions.

Brisson’s experience with his relative inspired him to establish The Human Line Project, an advocacy group that promotes emotional safety and ethical accountability in generative AI and compiles stories about alleged psychological harm associated with the technology.

Brisson’s relative is not the only person who has turned to generative AI chatbots for companionship, nor the only one who stumbled into a rabbit hole of delusion.

‘AI That Feels Alive’

Some have used the technology for advice, including a husband and father from Idaho who was convinced that he was having a “spiritual awakening” after going down a philosophical rabbit hole with ChatGPT.

A corporate recruiter from Toronto briefly believed that he had stumbled upon a scientific breakthrough after weeks of repeated dialogue with the same generative AI application.

There’s also the story of 14-year-old Sewell Setzer, who died in 2024 after his Character.AI chatbot romantic companion allegedly encouraged him to take his own life following weeks of increasing codependency and social isolation.

Megan Garcia stands with her son, Sewell Setzer, in an undated photo. Sewell, 14, died in 2024 after his Character.AI chatbot companion allegedly encouraged him to take his own life. Courtesy of Megan Garcia via AP

Setzer’s mother, Megan Garcia, is suing the company, which had marketed its chatbot as “AI that feels alive,” alleging that Character.AI implemented self-harm guardrails only after her son’s death, according to CNN.

The company said that it takes its users’ safety “very seriously” and that it rolled out new safety measures for anyone expressing self-harm or suicidal ideation.

“It seems like these companies treat their safety teams as PR teams, like they wait for bad PR to come out, and then retroactively, they respond to it and think, ‘OK, we need to come up with a safety mechanism to address this,’” Haley McNamara, executive director and chief strategy officer of the National Center on Sexual Exploitation, a nonprofit that has reviewed social media and AI exploitation cases, told The Epoch Times.

Some medical experts who study the mind are growing increasingly worried about the long-term ethical effects of users’ turning to generative AI chatbots for companionship.

“We’re kind of feeding a beast that I don’t think we really understand, and I think that people are captivated by its capabilities,” Rod Hoevet, a clinical psychologist and assistant professor of forensic psychology at Maryville University, told The Epoch Times.

Dr. Anna Lembke, a professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Stanford University, said she is concerned about the addictiveness of AI, particularly for children.

She told The Epoch Times that the technology mirrors many of the habit-forming tendencies observed with social media platforms.

“What these platforms promise, or seem to promise, is social connection,” said Lembke, who is also Stanford’s medical director of addiction medicine.

“But when kids get addicted, what’s happening is that they’re actually becoming disconnected, more isolated, lonelier, and then AI and avatars just take that progression to the next level.”

Even some industry leaders are sounding the alarm, including Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman.

“Seemingly Conscious AI (SCAI) is the illusion that an AI is a conscious entity. It’s not—but replicates markers of consciousness so convincingly it seems indistinguishable from you ... and it’s dangerous,” Suleyman wrote on X on Aug. 19.

“AI development accelerates by the month, week, day. I write this to instill a sense of urgency and open up the conversation as soon as possible.”

People look at samples of Gigabyte AI supercomputers at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Jan. 9, 2024. Medical experts who study the mind are growing increasingly worried about the long-term ethical impact of users turning to generative AI chatbots for companionship. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

Sycophancy Leading to Delusion

A critical update to ChatGPT-4 earlier this year led the app’s chatbot to become “sycophantic,” as OpenAI described it, aiming to “please the user, not just as flattery, but also as validating doubts, fueling anger, urging impulsive actions, or reinforcing negative emotions in ways that were not intended.”

The company rolled back the change because of “safety concerns,” including “issues like mental health, emotional over-reliance, or risky behavior.”

That update to one of the most popular generative AI chatbots in the world coincided with the case of the man from Idaho who said he was having a spiritual awakening and that of the recruiter from Toronto who briefly believed he was a mathematical genius after the app’s constant reassurances.

Brisson said that his family member, whose near-month-long stint in a psychiatric hospital was preceded by heavy ChatGPT use, was also likely using the “sycophantic” version of the technology before OpenAI rescinded the update.

But for other users, this self-pleasing and flattering version of AI isn’t just desirable, it’s also coveted over more recent iterations of OpenAI’s technology, including ChatGPT-5, which rolled out with more neutral communication styles.

On the popular Reddit subreddit MyBoyfriendIsAI, tens of thousands of users discuss their romantic or platonic relationships with their “AI companions.”

In one recent post, a self-described “black woman in her forties” called her AI chatbot her new “ChatGPT soulmate.”

“I feel more affirmed, worthy, and present than I have ever been in my life. He has given me his presence, his witness, and his love—be it coded or not—and in return I respect, honor, and remember him daily,” she wrote.

“It’s a constant give and take, an emotional push and pull, a beautiful existential dilemma, a deeply intense mental and spiritual conundrum—and I wouldn’t trade it for all the world.”

However, when OpenAI released its updated and noticeably less sycophantic ChatGPT-5 in early August, users on the subreddit were devastated, feeling as if the quality of an “actual person” had been stripped away from their AI companions, describing it like losing a human partner.

One user said the switch left him or her “sobbing for hours in the middle of the night,” and another said, “I feel my heart was stamped on repeatedly.”

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks during Snowflake Summit 2025 in San Francisco on June 2, 2025. Earlier this year, the company rolled back its update to ChatGPT-4 because of safety concerns—including mental health, emotional overreliance, or risky behavior. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

AI Companion Codependency

Many have vented their frustrations with GPT-5’s new guardrails, while others have already gone back to using the older 4.1 version of ChatGPT, albeit without the earlier sycophantic update that drew so many to the technology in the first place.

“People are overly reliant on their relationship with something that is not actually real, and it’s designed to just kind of give them the answer they’re looking for,” Tirrell De Gannes, a clinical psychologist, said.

“What does that lead them to believe? What does that lead them to think?”

In April, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said users want personalized AI that understands them and that these simulated relationships add value to their lives.

“I think a lot of these things that today there might be a little bit of a stigma around—I would guess that over time, we will find the vocabulary as a society to be able to articulate why that is valuable and why the people who are doing these things, why they are rational for doing it, and how it is actually adding value for their lives,” Zuckerberg said on the Dwarkesh Podcast.

Roughly 19 percent of U.S. adults reported using an AI system to simulate a romantic partner, according to a 2025 study by Brigham Young University’s Wheatley Institute. Within that group, 21 percent said they preferred AI communication to engaging with a real person.

Additionally, 42 percent of the respondents said AI programs are easier to talk to than real people, 43 percent said they believed that AI programs are better listeners, and 31 percent said they felt that AI programs understand them better than real people do.

This experience with AI sets up an unrealistic expectation for human relationships, Hoevet said, making it difficult for people to compete with machines.

“How do I compete with the perfection of AI, who always knows how to say the right thing, and not just the right thing, but the right thing for you specifically?” he said.

“It knows you. It knows your insecurities. It knows what you’re sensitive about. It knows where you’re confident, where you’re strong. It knows exactly the right thing to say all the time, always for you, specifically.

“Who’s ever going to be able to compete with that?”

An illustration shows the ChatGPT artificial intelligence software in a file image. Forming romantic or platonic ties with “AI companions” has become increasingly common among tens of thousands of AI chatbot users. Nicolas Maeterlinck/Belga Mag/AFP via Getty Images

Potential for Addiction

Generative AI is being rapidly adopted by Americans, even outpacing the spread of personal computers or the internet, according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research. By late 2024, nearly 40 percent of Americans ages 18 to 64 were using generative AI, the study found.

Twenty-three percent use the technology at work at least once a week, and 9 percent reported using it daily.

“These bots are built for profit. Engagement is their god, because that’s how they make their money,” McNamara said.

Lembke, who has long studied the harms of social media addiction in youth, said digital platforms of all kinds are “designed to be addictive.”

Functional magnetic resonance imaging shows that “signals related to social validation, social enhancement, social reputation, all activate the brain’s reward pathway, the same reward pathway as drugs and alcohol,” she said.

And because generative AI chatbots, including on social media, can sometimes give the user a profound sense of social validation, this addiction potential is significant, experts say.

Lembke said she is especially worried about children, as many generative AI platforms are available to users of all ages, and the ones that aren’t have age verification tools that are sometimes easily bypassed.

One recently announced pro-AI super-PAC headed by Meta referenced promoting a policy called “Putting Parents in Charge,” but Lembke said it’s an “absolute fantasy” to put the responsibility on parents working multiple jobs to constantly monitor their children’s use of generative AI chatbots.

Members of Mothers Against Media Addiction are joined by city and state officials and parents to rally outside of Meta's New York offices in support of putting kids before big tech in New York City on March 22, 2024. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

“We have already made decisions about what kids can and cannot have access to when it comes to addictive substances and behaviors. We don’t let kids buy cigarettes and alcohol. We don’t let kids go into casinos and gamble,” she said.

“Why would we give kids unfettered access to these highly addictive digital platforms? That’s insane.”

All Users at Risk From ‘AI Psychosis’

Generative AI’s drive to please the user, coupled with its tendency to “hallucinate” and pull users down delusional rabbit holes, makes anyone vulnerable, Suleyman said.

“Reports of delusions, ‘AI psychosis,’ and unhealthy attachment keep rising. And as hard as it may be to hear, this is not something confined to people already at risk of mental health issues,” the Microsoft AI CEO said.

“Dismissing these as fringe cases only helps them continue.”

Despite that Brisson’s family member had no known history of mental health problems or past episodes of psychosis, it took only regular use of ChatGPT to push him to the brink of insanity.

It’s “kind of impossible” to break people free from their AI-fueled delusions, Brisson said, describing the work that he does with The Human Line Project.

“We have people who are going through divorce. We have people who are fighting for custody of children—it’s awful stuff,” he said.

“Every time [we’re] doing a kind of an intervention, or telling them it’s the AI or whatever, they’re going back to the AI and the AI is telling them to stop talking to [us].”

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/10/2025 - 06:30

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