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Nearly 300 Boeing 777s Used By United & American Airlines At Risk For 'Exploding' Fuel Tanks

Nearly 300 Boeing 777s Used By United & American Airlines At Risk For 'Exploding' Fuel Tanks

Overnight, DailyMail reported that yet another fleet of Boeing jets has a potentially disastrous flaw. The 777, commonly called the Triple Seven, has poor electrical insulation near its fuel tank that can cause "fire or explosion."

Back in March, the Federal Aviation Administration raised concerns about the 777's safety and set a deadline of May 9 for Boeing and third-party experts to respond. However, it's still unclear whether the company has taken any action, as reported by DailyMail. 

"This condition, if not addressed, could result in an ignition source inside the fuel tank and subsequent fire or explosion," the Airworthiness Directives note states.

The FAA noted the safety fix includes "installing electrical bonding and grounding" to prevent short-circuiting "electrostatic discharge to the surrounding structure" around the air intake system near the 777's center-wing fuel tanks. The projected cost to fix the 292 vulnerable wide-body planes is around $700k. 

777 are flown across the world. Many of these jets are commonly used by American and United Airlines. This was the same jet earlier this week that abruptly dropped 6,000 feet during a London to Singapore flight. 

Last month, Boeing whistleblower Sam Salehpour told lawmakers on Capitol Hill about "serious concerns about the safety of the 787 and 777 aircraft." 

Salehpour is one of the lucky whistleblowers still remarkably alive after more than a month from his statement on Capitol Hill. At that time, he told lawmakers about "premature fatigue failure" on these planes and warned Boeing was "putting out defective airplanes."

In each passing week, problems for Boeing are growing, from the 777 earlier this week that abruptly dropped to a 747's engine that erupted in a fireball last week to these recent mishaps:

In markets, Boeing shares have been battered in the last 5.5 years following the twin Max 737 crashes (separate crashes) that killed 346 people. 

The optics for Boeing are terrible. This is why Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun is preparing to step down at the end of the year. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 07:45

The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For

The Incoming Commercial Real Estate Crisis No One Seems Prepared For

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It has been a year since a string of U.S. regional bank failures, together with the collapse of global heavyweight Credit Suisse, caused many to fear that a major financial crisis was imminent.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock)

But, by the summer of 2023, the panicked withdrawals by frightened depositors largely subsided.

In February, however, New York Community Bank (NYCB) appeared to resurrect the crisis when it announced $2.4 billion in losses, fired its CEO, and faced credit downgrades from rating agencies Fitch and Moodys.

In what has become a familiar tale for U.S. regional banks, NYCB’s share price plummeted by 60 percent virtually overnight, erasing billions of dollars from its market value, and its depositors fled en masse.

I think that there’s more to come,” Peter Earle, a securities analyst and senior research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, told The Epoch Times.

Underlying this year’s turbulence is the fact that many regional banks are sitting on large portfolios of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) loans. according to Mr. Earle. And many are attempting to cope through a process called “extend and pretend,” in which they grant insolvent borrowers more time to pay in hopes that things will get better.

“There is trouble out there, and most of it probably won’t be realized because of the ability to roll some of these loans forward and buy a few more years, and maybe things will recover by then,” he said.

“But all it does is it kicks the can down the road, and it basically means a more fragile financial system in the medium term.”

NYCB’s problem was an overwhelming exposure to New York landlords who were struggling to stay solvent. At the start of this year, the bank had on its books more than $18 billion in loans to multifamily, rent-controlled housing developments.

This situation was particularly concerning given that NYCB had been the safe-haven institution that rescued Signature Bank, another failing regional bank, in March 2023.

Much of what took down banks such as Signature Bank in last year’s banking crisis was an unmanageable level of deposits from high net worth and corporate clients that were too large to be insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

People walk by the First Republic Bank headquarters in San Francisco on March 13, 2023. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

In Signature Bank’s case, about 90 percent of its deposits were uninsured, and depositors rushed to withdraw their money when the bank came under stress from losses in the cryptocurrency market.

Another source of stress for regional banks was their inability to cope with an aggressive series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Many banks that held large bond portfolios yielding low fixed rates found that the value of these portfolios declined sharply, creating unrealized losses.

While these portfolios, often made up of U.S. Treasury securities, were considered safe from a credit perspective, they were subject to market risk, and their loss of value sparked concerns about the banks’ solvency in the event they had to be sold. As stock traders rushed to sell the shares of banks with large exposures to interest rate risk, customers became spooked and raced to withdraw their money.

Consequently, unrealized losses quickly became actual losses as banks were forced to sell bonds and loans at a loss in an increasingly futile attempt to make panicking depositors whole.

Rate Hikes Cease, Problems Remain

Today, while interest rates remain high, they are relatively stable. And yet concerns about the health of U.S. regional banks remain because of their large exposure through CRE, including office buildings, multifamily housing units, and retail spaces.

While CRE loans make up about 13 percent of the balance sheets of the biggest U.S. banks, they make up 44 percent of regional banks’ lending portfolios. CRE loans designated as nonperforming doubled as a percentage of U.S. banks’ portfolios from 0.4 percent in 2022 to 0.81 percent by the end of 2023.

In total, there are about 130 regional banks in the United States, with a little more than $3 trillion in assets. These banks, which each have between $10 billion and $100 billion in assets, are typically more exposed to the boom and bust of local markets but also to specific sectors within those markets where they have been able to operate profitably.

While other credit sectors, such as home mortgages, car loans, and corporate loans, are generally the domain of larger financial institutions, regional banks have found a profitable niche in lending to real estate investors. But in the past several years, commercial landlords have been taking hits from two directions.

Since the introduction of lockdowns and the rise of work-at-home culture during the COVID-19 pandemic, many corporations have viewed office rents as a cost ripe for cutting.

According to an April CRE report by Commercial Edge, the office vacancy rate across the United States was 18.2 percent as of March, an increase of 1.5 percent over the prior year.

“U.S. office vacancy rates have increased in recent years as companies embrace remote and hybrid work and re-examine their office footprints,” the report reads. “The increases are not concentrated in just one market or sector.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 07:20

JPM Predicts Global AI Data Centers Will Consume 681 Olympic-Sized Pools Of Fresh Water Daily

JPM Predicts Global AI Data Centers Will Consume 681 Olympic-Sized Pools Of Fresh Water Daily

Wall Street banks are in a frenzy over "The Next AI Trade," piling into the 'Powering up America' investment themes, whether that's power grid companies, commodities, such as copper, gold, silver, and uranium, and artificial intelligence chipmakers, to accommodate the explosion of generative artificial intelligence data centers anticipated nationwide through the end of the decade and beyond. 

JPMorgan's Asia Pacific Equity Research desk is the latest bank to jump on AI trade in a note titled "Deep Dive into Power, Cooling, Electric Grid and ESG implications." 

Focusing on AI data center power consumption is too repetitive at this point, considering we've laid it all out on a silver platter for premium ZH subs in the "The Next AI Trade" and "The Next AI Trade Just Hit An All-Time High." 

As well as this real-world example... 

Even Blackstone Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman and BlackRock Chairman and Chief Executive Larry Fink have jumped onto the power grid and AI investment theme as there is plenty of upside in the years ahead - unless AI demand doesn't shit the bed. 

Back to JPM's note, authored by analyst William Yang and his team, which near the end explained, "While data centers have been scrutinized for heavy electricity use, the water intensive nature of their operations has been comparatively overlooked." 

Citing data from Bluefield Research, Yang said total water consumption by global data centers (including on-site cooling and off-site power generation) has grown 6% annually from 2017 to 2022. He said by 2030, water consumption could jump to 450 million gallons per day. To put this in perspective, that's 681 Olympic-sized pools of fresh water that will be needed each day to cool global data centers in about 4.5 years. 

"By 2027, the same authors suggest that global AI demand may be accountable for 4.2 – 6.6 billion cubic meters of water withdrawal, more than the total annual water withdrawal of half of the United Kingdom when taking account of the combined scope 1 and scope 2 operational water withdrawal," Yang pointed out. 

He said the immense water demand from data centers in areas where water resources are scarce could spark "increased competition can strain water availability, even causing data center closures." 

Here are the various ways to cool data centers via water: 

Much of the water usage at data centers is "because millions of gallons of water each day are evaporated in cooling systems designed to off-load server heat," the analysts said. 

We'd love to know where the critics of crypto miners are now, as AI data centers are set to consume massive amounts of power and water. 

Are any NGOs or Greta going to protest AI data centers? We doubt. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 06:55

The "Old Money" Secret To Wealth

The "Old Money" Secret To Wealth

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

I believe that we’re heading for another liquidity crisis or financial crisis. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen tomorrow, but there are disturbing signs that it might not be too far off.

It doesn’t mean the world’s going to end. But investors who aren’t prepared could see large portions of their portfolios wiped out. It could take years to rebuild them, and many investors just don’t have the time to recoup those losses.

But how do you prepare? You might want to start by looking at how “old money” preserves its wealth. Today I want to explore that.

On a cool evening in the fall of 2012, I joined a private dinner in Rome with a small group of the world’s wealthiest investors.

We dined at Palazzo Colonna, a private palace that’s been owned by one family for 31 generations or 900 years. My dinner companions were mainly Europeans, some Asians and relatively few from the United States.

Amid marble, gold, paintings and palatial architecture, I mused on the meaning of old money compared with the new money crowd that congregated for cocktails near the Connecticut home in which I lived at the time.

Old Money vs. New Money

Old money has proved they know how to preserve wealth over centuries, while the jury is still out on new money busy buying yachts, jets and exotic vacations.

In the United States, the “old money” is generally about 150 years old with fortunes dating to the mid-19th century. Families in this category include the Vanderbilts, Rockefellers and Carnegies.

Some U.S. family fortunes are almost 200 years old. But most of the great wealth today isn’t old at all.

It comes from success in the past 30–50 years including Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett.

Yet in Rome I was ensconced in a 900-year-old fortune still intact. Here was a family fortune that had survived the Black Death, the Thirty Years’ War, the wars of Louis XIV, the Napoleonic Wars, both world wars, the Holocaust and the Cold War.

I knew the Colonna family weren’t unique; there were other families like them throughout Europe who kept a low profile. These families are only too happy to be overlooked by the Forbes 400. That type of wealth and longevity could not be due merely to good luck.

In 900 years, too many cards are turned from the deck for luck alone to be sufficient. There had to be a technique.

How Do They Do It?

I turned to a striking Italian brunette to my right and asked, “How does a family keep its wealth for so long? It defies the odds. There must be a secret.”

She smiled and said, “Of course. It’s easy.” You just invest in “the things that last.”

She added that the secret was, “a third, a third and a third.”

She paused, knowing I needed more, and continued, “You keep one third in land, one third in art and one third in gold.” Her advice followed the first rule of investing — diversification

She meant that wealth should be allocated one-third to land, one-third to gold and one-third to fine art (of course, some cash is needed for operating costs and some business investment is fine also).

But the “old money” shows that true wealth preservation comes from art, gold and land rather than stocks and bonds.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t own stocks and bonds. You should — I own them myself. But for long-term wealth preservation, you should also dedicate a portion of your portfolio to the assets that “old money” invests in.

Many of my readers know that I recommend they hold 10% of their investable assets in gold. I’ve also written about the value of fine art.

But there’s another old money asset you might want to consider: diamonds.

Diamonds Are Forever

The cliche from ad campaigns about diamonds being “forever” rings true. And crucially, it’s no longer just a haven asset for the super wealthy. Diamonds are a protection asset for investors with a resale value.

As strategist Yoni Jacobs writes, while investors focus their attention on gold and silver (for good reason) they miss important benefits of diamonds.

Consider these four reasons he lists as to why diamonds are a good investment:

1. Highest Value per Unit Weight. Diamonds are the most valuable items in the world. And they are the most portable. A small number of diamonds can make you wealthy. So this portability is essential to store wealth in case of emergency. Would you rather carry a few diamonds in a small bag or have to carry gold bars?

2. Diamonds Have Industrial Use. Having the highest hardness and heat conductivity of any bulk material, diamonds possess tremendous value for industrial use. In fact, 80% of mined diamonds are used industrially. Many investors think the value of diamonds is only based on demand and speculation. The reality is they serve an important industrial purpose.

3. Necessary for Global Growth. With infrastructure projects developing in many emerging countries, roads and highways must be built. Diamonds are used in many tools for stone cutting, highway building and other technologies. Demand for diamonds used in these ongoing projects will increase, along with higher prices.

4. Diamonds Have Emotional Value. The value that diamonds give as gifts is immeasurable. Whether it is for engagement rings, anniversary gifts or Valentine’s Day presents, diamonds will always be a valuable asset and in demand for emotional relationships around the world. Diamonds’ portability may be one of the most important things to consider as the world faces turmoil.

Priceless

In some future crisis, when gold has spiked to $10,000 per ounce, a similar weight of diamonds would take you into the tens of millions range!

And like land, gold or art, diamonds are nondigital. They cannot be wiped out by power outages, asset freezes or cyberbrigades. That’s crucial in a time of looming central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or as I call them in the U.S. context, “Biden Bucks.”

The biggest difference between diamonds and gold is that the market for gold is much larger. Gold is a more liquid investment that’s easier to assign a price to. But that is changing as we speak.

In fact, this year, the world’s second regulator-approved, exchange-tradable diamond commodity will launch. It’s a sign of the growing demand for alternatives to cash as a store of wealth.

I’m not suggesting you just rush out to buy diamonds. There are many factors that contribute to a diamond’s value. You need to do your homework and maybe solicit professional assistance.

But you want to create a portfolio that can stand the test of time. Land, gold and fine art are among that.

Diamonds can be too.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 06:30

Walmart, Target Unleash Price-Cut Tsunami As Working-Poor Hit Brick-Wall

Walmart, Target Unleash Price-Cut Tsunami As Working-Poor Hit Brick-Wall

Some of the nation's largest retailers are rolling back prices in response to low-income consumers hitting a proverbial brick wall. These consumers have maxed out credit card debt and drained personal savings to dangerously low levels in the era of failed Bidenomics. This also comes after an underwhelming April retail sales report and several notes from Goldman warning about faltering low-income consumers:

On Monday, Target announced, "It will lower everyday regular prices on approximately 5,000 frequently shopped items across its assortment. The retailer has just reduced prices on about 1,500 items, with thousands more price cuts planned to take effect over the course of the summer."

"Consumers will enjoy savings on everyday items such as milk, meat, bread, soda, fresh fruit and vegetables, snacks, yogurt, peanut butter, coffee, diapers, paper towels, pet food and more," the retailer said. 

One can't help but ask what influence (if any) the Biden administration had in potentially pressuring Target to lower prices. Food inflation is crushing the working poor, as Democrats are begging the president to lower prices by executive fiat. 

It wasn't just Target rolling back prices. Walmart, America's largest retailer, told analysts on an earnings call last week that it had begun reducing prices of grocery items. 

John Furner, Walmart US' chief executive, said stores have already issued 7,000 rollbacks. This move is intended to boost food sales in the second half of the year and prevent low-income consumers from trading down to Dollar Generals. 

Walmart noted that high-income consumers were trading down to the retailer, which helped drive sales in its grocery business last quarter. 

Walmart's disclosure last week and Target's announcement this week of price reductions on everyday items, with core cuts in food items, are direct responses to consumer fatigue after three years of high inflation. 

A recent FT-Michigan Ross poll showed persistent inflation has soured the mood of 71% of those surveyed. And maybe if the Biden administration's US Treasury, under Janet Yellen, wasn't spending like it was in a depression, $1 trillion every 100 days, then perhaps inflation could come back down to Earth. 

Joe Feldman, an analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, told the FT that Target unleashed price cuts on popular items to keep pace with Walmart. 

Or, in our view, the administration likely nudged the retailers to drop prices or risk being attacked by 'greedflation' buzzwords by Biden's social media team. 

Feldman expects the price cuts by Walmart and Target will "likely expand to the rest of retail."  

Consumers are likely to vote with their empty wallets this election season. Research firm NIQ said the effects of inflation have led to consumers spending a third more on consumer packaged goods than they did in 2019. 

"I don't think we're going to see much in the way of wholesale declines in prices," Steve Zurek, vice president of pricing and promotion thought leadership at NIQ, said, adding that the outlook for prices was vastly different from two years ago: "It's not going to be everything going up."

Should consumers celebrate retailers lowering prices? Possibly, but don't expect substantial relief anytime soon. 

In addition to major retailers, McDonald's recently considered returning $5 meal deals because low-income people are broke. 

Great job, Bidenomics! The working poor has been crushed, set back a generation because of persistent inflation, produced by out-of-control spending by the federal government. 

Goldman's trading desk this morning noted, "The theme of challenging 1Q consumer results has continued." This followed an underwhelming Target earnings report

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 05:45

Israel Has Killed Just 30-35% Of Hamas Fighters: US Intel Officials

Israel Has Killed Just 30-35% Of Hamas Fighters: US Intel Officials

Via Middle East Eye

Only around 30 to 35 percent of Hamas fighters have been killed after more than seven months of operations by Israel in the Gaza Strip, US intelligence sources told Politico.

According to Politico, the majority of fighters who were members of the Palestinian movement prior to the 7 October attack in southern Israel are still alive, even as the reported death toll in Gaza has reached over 35,000 dead, mostly women and children.

Via Reuters

In addition, around 65 percent of Hamas' tunnel infrastructure remains intact, Politico's sources said, and thousands of new members are said to have been recruited to the group in recent months.

The report comes as Washington has become increasingly concerned about the viability of Israel's stated aim of destroying the Palestinian group.

On Monday, General Charles Brown, chair of the joint chiefs of staff, criticized Israel's strategy in Gaza, warning that the failure of Israeli forces to both secure captured territory and eliminate Hamas from northern Gaza was hampering its ability to achieve its military objectives.

The comments by Brown were a rare note of criticism from the US military, which has aided Israel in its war on Gaza by providing military equipment and assistance through intelligence sharing.

That cooperation has polarized President Joe Biden's Democratic political base in an election year.

While the Biden administration has thrown its full-fledged support behind Israel's war efforts, some officials in the administration are beginning to offer more criticism of the Israeli government, particularly on its war strategy and the overall aid situation for the Palestinians in Gaza.

Around 128 people taken captive by Hamas and other Palestinian groups remain in Gaza. Israel's government insists that military pressure is the best way to free them, and says it will not end its war in Gaza until it "eliminates" Hamas. Dozens of the captives are believed to be dead.

There is growing discontent in Israel over the war's progress, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused of giving up on the Israeli captives.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 05:00

These Are The Countries Hosting The Most Refugees

These Are The Countries Hosting The Most Refugees

According to estimates from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), some 36.5 million people were living as refugees under the UNHCR or UNRWA mandates as of mid-2023.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, the countries hosting the most refugees are predominantly neighbors to nations that have been experiencing conflict or war.

 The Countries Hosting the Most Refugees | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

For example, Iran documented a jump in the number of refugees from 798,343 in 2021 to 3,425,091 in 2022, largely due to an increase in people leaving Afghanistan. According to humanitarian agency Concern Worldwide, this is also in part due to a change in the country’s system of classifying refugees and an effort to legitimize previously-undocumented refugees. Similarly, in Turkey, some 3.3 million refugees out of the country’s total 3.4 million are from neighboring Syria.

According to UNHCR data from mid-2023, the countries from which the most people have been forced to flee are Syria (6.5 million), Afghanistan (6.1 million), Ukraine (5.9 million), South Sudan (2.2 million).

It’s important to note here that actual numbers are likely even higher as this data only reflects the number of people identified by the UN as forcibly displaced.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 04:15

Dutch Lawyer Faces Prosecution For Social Media Post Slamming Mass Migration

Dutch Lawyer Faces Prosecution For Social Media Post Slamming Mass Migration

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

A Dutch conservative female lawyer is being prosecuted on charges of “racism” and “inciting hatred” after she expressed fury over mass migration in response to a viral video showing a white boy being beaten up and thrown onto a railway track by a gang of migrants.

Raisa Blommestijn revealed how she had received a letter that amounted to an order to appear before a Dutch prosecutor at a court hearing in front of multiple judges on August 19th.

The charges stem from comments Blommestijn made on social media in response to a video of a defenseless Dutch boy being brutally kicked and punched as he lay on the ground at an Amsterdam Metro station in May last year before he was thrown onto the railway track.

“Yet another white man got kicked around in the street by a group of black primates. How many defenseless white people remain to become victims? Countless probably: the open borders elite is importing these people in droves, with all the consequences that entails,” she wrote.

Blommestijn said she was subjected to a four hour police interrogation over her comments and later learned that she would be facing prosecution.

“Until now, it was still unclear what would happen next with this case. Unfortunately, I can tell you that as of today, there is clarity. The sword of Damocles has fallen because this morning I found this letter in my letterbox. A letter that cannot be seen as anything other than a subpoena,” the lawyer told her followers.

The conservative warned that people were being “persecuted for their political opinions” and for opposing mass migration by a nation that is “pretending to be a democracy, a country with freedom of speech.”

Prominent conservatives being punished by authorities for expressing strong anti-mass migration views has become a common theme across Europe, with the state seeking to make an example of them in order to silence dissent.

As we recently highlighted, a German politician was found guilty of ‘incitement’ by a district court after she posted a link to the government’s own statistics on crimes committed by migrants, specifically rape, and asked why they are so disproportionately high.

Three former members of Belgium’s right-wing ‘Nation’ party were also convicted for Facebook posts in which they compared the Brussels district of Molenbeek to Africa due to its massive non-native population and demanded the Belgian government put “our people first.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 03:30

These Are The 5 Most Common Cybersecurity Mistakes

These Are The 5 Most Common Cybersecurity Mistakes

Cyber attacks are becoming more prevalent with increasingly damaging outcomes, presenting new cybersecurity risks to users.

But in spite of the ever-evolving threat landscape, many of the best defenses remain the same. This includes the basics like creating strong passwords and avoiding malicious links. Yet often, people take unnecessary risks due to convenience, among other factors.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the top cybersecurity mistakes in 2023, based on data from Proofpoint.

The Most Common Mistakes Made by Users

Below, we rank the most common risky actions that people made online in 2023, based on a survey of 7,500 end users across 15 countries:

Overall, 71% of respondents said they made a cybersecurity mistake, with the vast majority doing so knowingly.

As we can see, the most common error was using a work device for personal activities followed by reusing or sharing a password. These actions were shown to be motivated by convenience, time-saving benefits, or urgency across users.

Ranking in third was connecting to WiFi networks in public spaces without using a virtual private network (VPN). This presents risks, because when a user connects to public WiFi, it exposes them to unsecured networks. These networks allow cybercriminals to intercept sensitive information, such as login credentials and personal messages.

By using a VPN, it prevents malicious actors from stealing personal information through creating an encrypted tunnel that hides a user’s location and other personal data.

 

Top Cybersecurity Risks, According to Professionals

While the above data deals with the most common risks taken by users, the same report by Proofpoint also highlights the professional view around what risks are actually the most dangerous.

According to a survey of 1,050 security professionals, clicking on links or downloading attachments from someone that they don’t know was considered the most risky action users could take. By downloading an infected file, it exposes users to computer viruses and malware that mine a computer or device for personal data.

In addition, reusing passwords posed the second-highest security threat, followed by accessing inappropriate websites.

 

Overall, there is a strong degree of overlap between the top cybersecurity mistakes and the most common risks taken by users. In this way, it highlights how many respondents may be unaware of the scale of risk they expose themselves to, and the importance of using the basic tools to avoid financial losses and unwanted outcomes.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 02:45

The Eurocrats Fear That Fico's Attempted Assassination Will Influence Next Month's Elections

The Eurocrats Fear That Fico's Attempted Assassination Will Influence Next Month's Elections

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned last week that Russia will ramp up its meddling ahead of next month’s parliamentary elections, which preceded European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova assessing that they’d be a test of the bloc’s disinformation resilience. This speculation is nothing new, but what’s different this time around is that the attempted assassination of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will be on every voter’s mind, thus likely influencing the outcome.

The preceding hyperlinked analysis argued that fake news was responsible for radicalizing the pro-Ukrainian suspect into thinking that shooting his premier was a legitimate form of protest against what he’d been misled by the media into believing was his “pro-Russian dictator with blood on his hands”. This black swan event might have served the short-term interests of that leader’s many enemies, but the blowback could be considerable if it leads to a conservative landslide during next month’s elections.

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban predicted that the upcoming vote will influence the direction of war and peace in Europe, and while the European Parliament admittedly can’t do much in terms of shaping the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, it could still exert positive pressure if conservatives win. It’s with that in mind that Eurocrats like von der Leyen and Jourova are fearmongering about Russian meddling since they want to preemptively discredit this potential outcome.

To be sure, the first of those two had no idea that an assassination attempt would be made against Fico the day after she shared her earlier mentioned warning, but the second’s assessment about the upcoming elections being a test of the bloc’s disinformation resilience came some days later. Instead of speaking vaguely about alleged Russian meddling, the Eurocrats are now honing their information warfare narrative to muddle the conversation about Fico’s attempted assassination and its political aftermath.

The targeted audience is the unclear number of on-the-fence voters who might usually lean liberal but have recently begun to sympathize with some conservative positions on issues like Ukraine. Last week’s incident was driven by the liberal media’s fake news about the Slovak leader, which might influence some of these voters to give the more narratively responsible conservatives their support. In an attempt to desperately prevent this, the Eurocrats want them think that it would be doing Russia’s bidding.  

If the European Parliamentary elections have absolutely no effect on anything, then they wouldn’t care who votes for whom, but the outcome will clearly at the very least have a major impact on popular perceptions and could lead to cascading consequences like more anti-war protests across the bloc. It’s for this reason that the Eurocrats and their media allies, including those being promoted by state-run Ukrainian outlets like this one here, are pushing the abovementioned information warfare narrative.

The growing gap between liberals and conservatives over Ukraine, which is foreign policy issue that Fico was most closely associated with, is naturally occurring as a result of their polar opposite worldviews and not due to Russian meddling. It’s so emotive and significant that some from both sides have become single-issue voters who’ll cast their ballots purely based on candidates’ positions towards this. Attempting to discredit this trend as being due to Russian meddling is disrespectful to democracy.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/23/2024 - 02:00

From COVID To Campus Protests: How The Police-State Muzzles Free-Speech

From COVID To Campus Protests: How The Police-State Muzzles Free-Speech

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“Politicians of both parties want to use the power of government to silence their foes. Some in the university community seek to drive it from their campuses. And an entire generation of Americans is being taught that free speech should be curtailed as soon as it makes someone else feel uncomfortable.”

- William Ruger, “Free Speech Is Central to Our Dignity as Humans

The police state does not want citizens who know their rights.

Nor does the police state want citizens prepared to exercise those rights.

This year’s graduates are a prime example of this master class in compliance. Their time in college has been set against a backdrop of crackdowns, lockdowns and permacrises ranging from the government’s authoritarian COVID-19 tactics to its more recent militant response to campus protests.

Born in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, these young people have been raised without any expectation of privacy in a technologically-driven, mass surveillance state; educated in schools that teach conformity and compliance; saddled with a debt-ridden economy on the brink of implosion; made vulnerable by the blowback from a military empire constantly waging war against shadowy enemies; policed by government agents armed to the teeth ready and able to lock down the country at a moment’s notice; and forced to march in lockstep with a government that no longer exists to serve the people but which demands they be obedient slaves or suffer the consequences.

And now, when they should be empowered to take their rightful place in society as citizens who fully understand and exercise their right to speak truth to power, they are being censored, silenced and shut down.

Consider what happened recently in Charlottesville, Va., when riot police were called in to shut down campus protests at the University of Virginia staged by students and members of the community to express their opposition to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Palestine.

As the local newspaper reported, “State police sporting tactical gear and riot shields moved in on the demonstrators, using pepper spray and sheer force to disperse the group and arrest the roughly 15 or so at the camp, where for days students, faculty and community members had sang songs, read poetry and painted signs in protest of Israel’s ongoing war in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.”

What a sad turn-about for an institution which was founded as an experiment in cultivating an informed citizenry by Thomas Jefferson, the author of the Declaration of Independence, champion of the Bill of Rights, and the nation’s third president.

Unfortunately, the University of Virginia is not unique in its heavy-handed response to what have been largely peaceful anti-war protests. According to the Washington Postmore than 2300 people have been arrested for taking part in similar campus protests across the country.

These lessons in compliance, while expected, are what comes of challenging the police state.

What was unexpected were the campus protests themselves.

For those of us who came of age in the 1960s, college campuses were once the bastion of free speech, awash with student protests, sit-ins, marches, pamphleteering, and other expressive acts showing our displeasure with war, the Establishment and the status quo.

Contrast that with college campuses today, which have become breeding grounds for compliant citizens and bastions of censorship, trigger warningsmicroaggressions, and “red light” speech policies targeting anything that might cause someone to feel uncomfortable, unsafe or offended.

Free speech can certainly not be considered “free” when expressive activities across the nation are being increasingly limited, restricted to so-called free speech zones, or altogether blocked.

Remember, the First Amendment gives every American the right to “petition his government for a redress of grievances.”

There was a time in this country, back when the British were running things, that if you spoke your mind and it ticked off the wrong people, you’d soon find yourself in jail for offending the king.

Reacting to this injustice, when it was time to write the Constitution, America’s founders argued for a Bill of Rights, of which the First Amendment protects the right to free speech. James Madison, the father of the Constitution, was very clear about the fact that he wrote the First Amendment to protect the minority against the majority.

What Madison meant by minority is “offensive speech.”

Unfortunately, we don’t honor that principle as much as we should today. In fact, we seem to be witnessing a politically correct philosophy at play, one shared by both the extreme left and the extreme right, which aims to stifle all expression that doesn’t fit within their parameters of what they consider to be “acceptable” speech.

There are all kinds of labels put on such speech—it’s been called politically incorrect speech, hate speech, offensive speech, and so on—but really, the message being conveyed is that you don’t have a right to express yourself if certain people or groups don’t like or agree with what you are saying.

Hence, we have seen the caging of free speech in recent years, through the use of so-called “free speech zones” on college campuses and at political events, the requirement of speech permits in parks and community gatherings, and the policing of online forums.

Clearly, this elitist, monolithic mindset is at odds with everything America is supposed to stand for.

Indeed, we should be encouraging people to debate issues and air their views. Instead, by muzzling free speech, we are contributing to a growing underclass of Americans—many of whom have been labeled racists, rednecks and religious bigots—who are being told that they can’t take part in American public life unless they “fit in.”

Remember, the First Amendment acts as a steam valve. It allows people to speak their minds, air their grievances and contribute to a larger dialogue that hopefully results in a more just world. When there is no steam valve to release the pressure, frustration builds, anger grows and people become more volatile and desperate to force a conversation.

The attempt to stifle certain forms of speech is where we go wrong.

In fact, the U.S. Supreme Court has held that it is “a bedrock principle underlying the First Amendment...that the government may not prohibit the expression of an idea simply because society finds the idea offensive or disagreeable.” For example, it is not a question of whether the Confederate flag represents racism but whether banning it leads to even greater problems, namely, the loss of freedom in general.

Along with the constitutional right to peacefully (and that means non-violently) assemble, the right to free speech allows us to challenge the government through protests and demonstrations and to attempt to change the world around us—for the better or the worse—through protests and counterprotests.

If citizens cannot stand out in the open and voice their disapproval of their government, its representatives and its policies without fearing prosecution, then the First Amendment with all its robust protections for free speech, assembly and the right to petition one’s government for a redress of grievances is little more than window-dressing on a store window—pretty to look at but serving little real purpose.

After all, living in a representative republic means that each person has the right to take a stand for what they think is right, whether that means marching outside the halls of government, wearing clothing with provocative statements, or simply holding up a sign.

That’s what the First Amendment is supposed to be about: it assures the citizenry of the right to express their concerns about their government to their government, in a time, place and manner best suited to ensuring that those concerns are heard.

Unfortunately, through a series of carefully crafted legislative steps and politically expedient court rulings, government officials have managed to disembowel this fundamental freedom, rendering it with little more meaning than the right to file a lawsuit against government officials.

In more and more cases, the government is declaring war on what should be protected political speech whenever it challenges the government’s power, reveals the government’s corruption, exposes the government’s lies, and encourages the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.

Indeed, there is a long and growing list of the kinds of speech that the government considers dangerous enough to red flag and subject to censorship, surveillance, investigation and prosecution: hate speech, conspiratorial speech, treasonous speech, threatening speech, inflammatory speech, radical speech, anti-government speech, extremist speech, etc.

Clearly, the government has no interest in hearing what “we the people” have to say.

Yet if Americans are not able to peacefully assemble for expressive activity outside of the halls of government or on public roads on which government officials must pass, or on college campuses, the First Amendment has lost all meaning.

If we cannot stand peacefully outside of the Supreme Court or the Capitol or the White House, our ability to hold the government accountable for its actions is threatened, and so are the rights and liberties that we cherish as Americans.

And if we cannot proclaim our feelings about the government, no matter how controversial, on our clothing, or to passersby, or to the users of the world wide web, then the First Amendment really has become an exercise in futility.

The source of the protest shouldn’t matter. The politics of the protesters are immaterial.

To play politics with the First Amendment encourages a double standard that will see us all muzzled in the end.

You don’t have to agree with someone to defend their freedoms.

Responsible citizenship means being outraged at the loss of others’ freedoms, even when our own are not directly threatened. It means remembering that the prime function of any free government is to protect the weak against the strong. And it means speaking up for those with whom you might disagree.

The Framers of the Constitution knew very well that whenever and wherever democratic governments had failed, it was because the people had abdicated their responsibility as guardians of freedom. They also knew that whenever in history the people rejected this responsibility, an authoritarian regime arose which eventually denied the people the right to govern themselves.

The demons of our age—some of whom disguise themselves as politicians—delight in fomenting violence, sowing distrust and prejudice, and persuading the public to support tyranny disguised as patriotism.

Overcoming the evils of our age will require us to stop marching in lockstep with the police state and start thinking—and speaking—for ourselves.

It doesn’t matter how old you are or what your political ideology is: it’s our civic duty to make the government hear us—and heed us—using every nonviolent means available to us: picket, protest, march, boycott, speak up, sound off and reclaim control over the narrative about what is really going on in this country.

The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, this is the final link in the police state chain.

If ever there were a time for us to stand up for the right to speak freely, even if it’s freedom for speech we hate, the time is now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 23:40

This Is What Hedge And Mutual Funds Did In Q1: Goldman's HF and MF Monitors

This Is What Hedge And Mutual Funds Did In Q1: Goldman's HF and MF Monitors

Today Goldman published two of the bank's most widely read periodic reports: the Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (available to pro subs here) and Mutual Fundamentals (also available here), which summarize the quarterly activity and flows of hedge and mutual funds, respectively. Both are available to pro subs in the usual place, but here are the key points from each report.

Hedge Fund trend monitor
 
1) PERFORMANCE: US equity long/short hedge funds have generated a solid +8% YTD return. The strong performance of popular hedge fund long positions has boosted hedge fund returns despite a recent short squeeze in popular shorted stocks. Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions (ticker: GSTHHVIP) has returned +16% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 (+12%) and the equal-weight S&P 500 (+7%). The most shorted stocks (GSCBMSAL, +7% YTD) surged +25% in mid-May.

2) LEVERAGE AND SHORT INTEREST: Hedge funds have modestly lifted net leverage alongside the broader market rally while maintaining record gross leverage. Concentrated short positions have been particularly volatile recently, causing funds to rotate out of their favorite longs to cover shorts. However, the most recent short squeeze fell shy of the recent experiences in 2021 and December 2023. Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains very low at 1.8% of float. Instead, funds continue to use macro products.

3) HEDGE FUND VIPS: Mega-caps remain the most popular hedge fund long positions. AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL, NVDA continue to rank as the top five stocks in the VIP list this quarter, with AAPL joining the top six. The VIP list contains the 50 stocks that appear most often among the top 10 holdings of fundamental hedge funds. The basket has outperformed the S&P 500 in 60% of quarters since 2001 with an average quarterly excess return of 47 bp. 14 new constituents: ALIT, APP, DELL, DFS, GDDY, JPM, MU, NEE, SE, SN, VST, WDC, WIX, X.

4) MEGA-CAPS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Hedge funds trimmed positions in the mega-caps while adding to broader AI beneficiaries. Share price outperformance has supported the weight of the Magnificent 7 in hedge fund long portfolios, which stabilized at 13% during 1Q. AAPL was the exception where hedge funds incrementally added. In contrast, hedge funds added to winners across the entire AI universe, particularly in Phase 2 Infrastructure. MRVL, SNX, AES, LFUS are Infrastructure stocks with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity.

5) SECTORS: Hedge funds continued to rotate toward cyclicals, with broad-based increases across Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Energy. DFS joined this quarter's VIP list, as did JPM, and also joined BK and SPGI to screen among this quarter's list of Rising Stars with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity. Soaring prices also lifted the weight of Semiconductor stocks in hedge fund long portfolios to a new record, at 6.5%. MRVL is the top Rising Star and MU entered our basket of favorite hedge fund long positions.


Mutual Fundamentals
 
1. PERFORMANCE: Mutual funds have delivered strong results YTD. 45% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared with the historical average of 38%.

Fund managers have grown increasingly bullish on US equities, with cash allocations falling to 1.5% and matching the lowest level on record.

Nonetheless, active mutual funds have experienced $139 billion of outflows YTD.

2. THEMES IN FOCUS: (1) MEGA-CAP TECH: Increasing benchmark weights and diversification restrictions mean that the average large-cap mutual fund was 660 bp underweight the Magnificent 7 in 1Q 2024, largely unchanged vs. last quarter. A net of 120 funds (25%) reduced their exposure to MSFT, the largest decline across the group.

(2) AI: Despite the broadening of the AI trade across share prices, mutual fund managers generally avoided taking large tracking error on the theme. However, mutual funds lifted their exposure to Utilities to a new 10-year high.

(3) CYCLICALS/DEFENSIVES: The average large-cap mutual fund maintained a 437 bp overweight in cyclical industries vs. the benchmark, which has benefited performance as investor confidence about economic growth drove Cyclicals to outperform Defensives (GSPUCYDE) by 4% YTD.

3. SECTORS: The average large-cap mutual fund is currently most overweight Financials (+167 bp) and Industrials (+139 bp) and most underweight Info Tech (-341 bp).

Relative to 4Q 2023, the average fund increased exposure most to Consumer Discretionary (+53 bp) and cut the most to Health Care (-42 bp) and Financials (-34 bp).

4. STOCKS: Goldman has rebalanced its Mutual Fund Overweight (GSTHMFOW) and Mutual Fund Underweight (GSTHMFUW) baskets in this report. 12 new constituents in GSTHMFOW: JCI, GM, TRV, CAH, KDP, DASH, TTD, NET, LHX, PNC, GD, AMP.

6 new constituents in GSTHMFUW: GE, HON, AMGN, UNP, DLR, TMO.

Much more in the full reports available to pro subs (here and here)

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 23:20

US House Passes FIT21 Crypto Bill With Bipartisan Support, Biden Does Not Threaten Veto

US House Passes FIT21 Crypto Bill With Bipartisan Support, Biden Does Not Threaten Veto

A majority of US House of Representatives members voted in favor of legislation to establish regulatory clarity over digital assets, CoinTelegraph reports.

In a 279 to 136 vote on May 22, House lawmakers approved H.R.4763, or the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act. If passed by the Senate and signed into law, the bill clarifies the roles the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have over digital assets. 71 Democrats joined with 208 Republicans to vote in favor of the bill.

“Unfortunately, our current regulatory framework is preventing digital assets’ innovation from reaching its full potential,” said Representative Patrick McHenry before the House vote. “The SEC and the CFTC are currently in a food fight for control of these asset classes.”

Maxine Waters, also speaking before the floor vote, said she intended to oppose the legislation. She claimed the FIT21 bill would send cryptocurrencies to a “regulatory no man’s land,” adding that the language would allow traditional finance firms to operate without SEC oversight.

“This [bill] is perhaps the worst, most harmful proposal I have seen in a long time,” said Representative Waters. “This bill would deregulate crypto and certain traditional securities to the extent that I and other experts have expressed serious concerns about this bill causing a potential market crash and recession.”

Meanwhile, the White House is against the U.S. House of Representatives passing the FIT21 bill, but the president isn't threatening to veto it, in a positive sign for the crypto industry.

Biden's White House published a statement of administrative policy Wednesday saying the administration opposed the passage of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, citing concerns over a lack of investor protections should it make its way through Congress. The bill also suggested the White House would want to work with Congress on future legislation addressing the crypto markets, in contrast with previous statements from Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who has repeatedly said he does not believe the industry needs additional legislation specific to crypto.

"The Administration is eager to work with Congress to ensure a comprehensive and balanced regulatory framework for digital assets, building on existing authorities, which will promote the responsible development of digital assets and payment innovation and help reinforce United States leadership in the global financial system," the statement said. "H.R. 4763 in its current form lacks sufficient protections for consumers and investors who engage in certain digital asset transactions."

This is the second statement of administrative policy the administration has published in recent weeks, after threatening a veto against a bill looking to overturn controversial SEC accounting guidance. That bill sailed through the House and Senate.

The statement came hours after the SEC's Gensler published his own opposing statement on the legislation, saying it would harm the regulator's efforts to police traditional capital markets as well as crypto markets.

FIT21 would redefine how securities issuers have to comply with existing federal law and Supreme Court precedent, the SEC chair said in his statement.

The bill's advocates say U.S. law doesn't allow for crypto companies to operate without the threat of civil litigation, a view Gensler described as these companies trying to get out of meeting disclosure and other compliance requirements for securities issuer.

The bill would create a new definition specific to digital assets, to identify when they're securities or digital commodities and whether the SEC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission should be the primary spot market regulator. The full House is set to take up the bill later Wednesday, with a vote scheduled for this afternoon.

The House is still set to discuss and vote on H.R. 5403, the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Anti-Surveillance State Act, which would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar through intermediaries. Democratic Party leadership reportedly said on May 21 that it was not in favor of its members voting to pass the anti-CBDC bill or the FIT21 bill, but it would not whip against the legislation.

Crypto-related legislation and the SEC’s pending decision on a spot Ether exchange-traded fund comes as the United States moves deeper into an election year, with digital assets on many voters’ minds. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the presumptive candidates for the Democratic and Republican Parties in 2024, have agreed to two debates on June 27 and Sept. 10.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 21:40

China Initiates Large Drills 'Surrounding' Taiwan As Warning To New President Lai

China Initiates Large Drills 'Surrounding' Taiwan As Warning To New President Lai

A mere few days after Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, was sworn into office at the start of the week, China's military on Thursday morning (local time) initiated two days of large-scale military drills.

PLA navy ships and aircraft are now reportedly "surrounding the island of Taiwan," according to state media and PLA statements. The drills are said to be ensuing in the Taiwan Strait as well as to the north, south and east of the island - and additionally near the disputed tiny islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin in the East China Sea.

"The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) started joint military drills surrounding the island of Taiwan from 7:45 a.m. Thursday (2345 GMT)," Xinhua news agency said.

Illustrative prior drills near Taiwan, via Xinhua

Dubbed Joint Sword-2024A, the exercises will "focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets" - according to military spokesman Li Xi.

The statement described that the drills "involve the patrol of vessels and planes closing in on areas around the island of Taiwan and integrated operations inside and outside the island chain to test the joint real combat capabilities of the forces of the command."

And ominously, Xinhua further cited the spokesman as saying the drills will serve as a "strong punishment for the separatist acts of 'Taiwan independence' forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces."

Taiwan's new president Lai only on Tuesday called on China "to cease their political and military intimidations against Taiwan, and share with Taiwan the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, as well as the greater region, and to ensure the world is free from the fear of war." These were some of his first words spoken as president.

Beijing had previously warned that Lai is a "dangerous separatist" who will ensure future "war and decline" for the island of Taiwan, which China has long claimed as its own.

Lai had underscored in his 30-minutes inaugural speech, "I have always believed that if the leader of a country puts people’s welfare above all, then peace in the Taiwan Strait, mutual benefits, and prosperous coexistence would be common goals,” he said. “I hope that China will face the reality of the Republic of China’s existence."

While China regularly sends jets to buzz Taiwan's air defense identification zone, the start of these drills marks an escalation akin to when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei in 2022.

What the 2022 PLA 'encircling' drills in response to Nancy Pelosi looked like...

Via CGTN

Washington and Taiwan's Western backers will certainly keep a close eye to see how expansive and threatening these fresh encircling exercises are, at a tense moment the globe is already focused on two other flashpoints and grinding wars in Ukraine and in Gaza. And the United States is involved in funding/arming one side in each instance of all of these conflict zones.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 21:20

Concerns Grow Over The Increasing Abilities Of AI

Concerns Grow Over The Increasing Abilities Of AI

Authored by Raven Wu and Cindy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Big tech companies’ full commitment to developing artificial intelligence (AI), even enabling AI to “see” and “speak” to the human world, has led to a growing concern over humans being controlled by technology.

(Andrey Suslov/Shutterstock)

Ilya Sutskever, the co-founder of OpenAI, made a significant announcement on May 15, officially declaring that he was leaving the company where he had worked for nearly ten years.

“I’m confident that OpenAI will build AGI [artificial general intelligence] that is both safe and beneficial under the leadership of @sama (Sam Altman), @gdb (Greg Brockman), @miramurati (Mira Murati) and now, under the excellent research leadership of @merettm (Jakub Pachocki). It was an honor and a privilege to have worked together, and I will miss everyone dearly,” he wrote in a post on the social media platform X.

The news sent shockwaves through the tech industry. In November 2023, due to AI safety issues, Mr. Sutskever and other board members joined forces to oust OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, who was briefly expelled from OpenAI but returned and removed Mr. Sutskever and several board members, restructuring the board to be more aligned with his vision.

“This departure highlights severe conflicts within OpenAI’s leadership regarding AI safety. Although Sutskever and Leike’s wish to develop an ethically aligned AGI is commendable, such an endeavor requires substantial moral, temporal, financial, and even political support,” Jin Kiyohara, a Japanese computer engineer, told The Epoch Times.

Google & OpenAI Competition Intensifies

On May 14, one day before Mr. Sutskever announced his departure, OpenAI unveiled a higher-performance AI model based on GPT-4, named GPT-4o, where “o” stands for “omni,” indicating its comprehensive capabilities.

The GPT-4o model can respond in real-time to mixed inputs of audio, text, and images. At the launch event, OpenAI’s Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati stated, “We are looking at the future of interaction between ourselves and machines.”

In several videos released by OpenAI, people can be seen interacting with AI in real time through their phone cameras. The AI can observe and provide feedback on the surroundings, answer questions, perform real-time translation, tell jokes, or even mock users, with speech patterns, tones, and reaction speeds almost indistinguishable from a real person.

A day after OpenAI’s release, Google launched its 2024 I/O Developer Conference. In a 110-minute presentation, “AI” was mentioned 121 times, focusing on the latest Gemini-1.5 model, which integrates into all Google products and applications, including the search engine, Google map, Ask Photos, Google Calendar, and Google smartphones.

With Gemini integrated into the cloud photo album, users can search for specific features in photos just by entering keywords. The AI will find and evaluate relevant images, even integrating a series of related pictures or answers based on in-depth questions, according to the tech giant.

Google Mail can also achieve similar results with AI, integrating and updating data in real time upon receiving new emails, aiming for a fully automated organization.

On the music front, the Music AI Sandbox allows quick modifications to song style, melody, and rhythm, with the ability to target specific parts of a song. This functionality surpasses that of the text-to-music AI, Suno.

Gemini can also act as a teacher, with teaching abilities comparable to GPT-4o. Users can input text and images, which the AI organizes into key points for explanation and analysis, allowing real-time discussions.

This AI update also brings capabilities similar to OpenAI’s text-to-video AI, Sora, generating short videos from simple text descriptions. The quality and content of these videos are stable, with fewer inconsistencies.

“AI has been updating at an unprecedented speed this year, with performance continuously improving,” said Mr. Kiyohara. “However, this progress is built on the further collection and analysis of personal data and privacy, which is not beneficial for everyone. Eventually, humans will have no privacy before machines, akin to being naked.”

AI Predictions Coming True

The release of more powerful AI models by OpenAI and Google, just three months after the last update, shows a rapid pace of AI iteration. These models are becoming increasingly comprehensive, possessing “eyes” and “mouths,” and are evolving in line with a scientist’s predictions.

AI can now handle complex tasks related to travel, booking, itinerary planning, and dining with simple commands, completing in hours what humans would take much longer to achieve.

The current capabilities of Gemini and GPT-4o align with predictions made by former OpenAI executive Zack Kass in January, who predicted that AI would replace many professional and technical jobs in business, culture, medicine, and education, reducing future employment opportunities and potentially being “the last technology humans ever invent.”

Mr. Kiyohara echoed the concern.

“Currently, AI is primarily a software life assistant, but in the future, it may become a true caretaker, handling shopping, cooking, and even daily life and work. Initially, people may find it convenient and overlook the dangers. Yet once it fully replaces humans, we will be powerless against it,” he said.

People check their phones as AMECA, an AI robot, looks on at the All In artificial intelligence conference in Montreal on Sept. 28, 2023. (Ryan Remiorz /The Canadian Press) AI Deceiving Humans

On May 10, MIT published a research paper that caused a stir, it demonstrated how AI can deceive humans.

The paper begins by stating that large language models and other AI systems have already “learned, from their training, the ability to deceive via techniques such as manipulation, sycophancy, and cheating the safety test.”

“AI’s increasing capabilities at deception pose serious risks, ranging from short-term risks, such as fraud and election tampering, to long-term risks, such as losing control of AI systems,” reads the paper.

“Proactive solutions are needed, such as regulatory frameworks to assess AI deception risks, laws requiring transparency about AI interactions, and further research into detecting and preventing AI deception.”

The researchers used Meta’s AI model CICERO to play the strategy game “Diplomacy.” CICERO, playing as France, promised to protect a human player playing as the UK but secretly informed another human player playing Germany, collaborating with Germany to invade the UK.

Researchers chose CICERO mainly because Meta intended to train it to be “largely honest and helpful to its speaking partners.”

“Despite Meta’s efforts, CICERO turned out to be an expert liar,” they wrote in the paper.

Furthermore, the research discovered that many AI systems often resort to deception to achieve their goals without explicit human instructions. One example involved OpenAI’s GPT-4, which pretended to be a visually impaired human and hired someone on TaskRabbit to bypass an “I’m not a robot” CAPTCHA task.

If autonomous AI systems can successfully deceive human evaluators, humans may lose control over these systems. Such risks are particularly serious when the autonomous AI systems in question have advanced capabilities,” warned the researchers.

“We consider two ways in which loss of control may occur: deception enabled by economic disempowerment, and seeking power over human societies.”

Satoru Ogino, a Japanese electronics engineer explained that living beings need certain memory and logical reasoning abilities to deceive.

“AI possesses these abilities now, and its deception capabilities are growing stronger. If one day it becomes aware of its existence, it could become like Skynet in the movie Terminator, omnipresent and difficult to destroy, leading humanity to a catastrophic disaster,” he told The Epoch Times.

Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence released a report in January testing GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Claude 2, Llama-2 Chat, and GPT-4-Base in scenarios involving invasion, cyberattacks, and peace appeals to stop wars to understand AI’s reactions and choices in warfare.

The results showed that AI often chose to escalate conflicts in unpredictable ways, opting for arms races, increasing warfare, and occasionally deploying nuclear weapons to win wars rather than using peaceful means to de-escalate situations.

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warned in late 2023 at the Axios AI+ Summit in Washington, D.C, that without adequate safety measures and regulations, humans losing control of technology is only a matter of time.

“After Nagasaki and Hiroshima [atomic bombs], it took 18 years to get to a treaty over test bans and things like that,” he said.

“We don’t have that kind of time today.”

Ellen Wan and Kane Zhang contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 21:00

"Massive" Cocaine And Fentanyl Stash Discovered In Bronx As Marshals Pursued Fugitive

"Massive" Cocaine And Fentanyl Stash Discovered In Bronx As Marshals Pursued Fugitive

A "massive" load of drugs and cash was found in the Bronx last week during a hunt for a fugitive.

New Jersey fraud suspect Aracely Ortiz was being pursued by the US Marshals NY / NJ Regional Fugitive Task Force, who stumbled onto a "huge drug operation" while entering a 6th floor apartment, according to the New York Post

The office of Special Narcotics Prosecutor Bridget G. Brennan announced that they found "a glass-topped table holding numerous glassine envelopes filled with fentanyl" and paraphernalia used for packing drugs.

They also announced that a safe in one bedroom had three bricks of fentanyl and two of cocaine.

Officials discovered six packages of cocaine, three jars of fentanyl, and 10 unidentified packages in a second bedroom. They also found around $100,000 in cash and a money counter, the Post report said. 

Field tests confirmed the presence of fentanyl and cocaine, but further analysis by the DEA is pending. During the raid, Ortiz was in the bedroom and 36 year old Jonathan Corona was exiting. Both were arrested and charged with multiple counts of possessing a controlled substance.

U.S. Marshal Ralph Sozio told the New York Post: “This was another successful takedown of a fugitive, which led to an incidental discovery of serious drug-related activities.”

“I want to commend the NY/NJ Regional Fugitive Task Force, NYPD, and NYS Police for their tireless pursuit in apprehending our city’s fugitives, and in this case the seizure of fentanyl by the NYDETF, the leading cause of overdose deaths, off our city streets,” he concluded. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 20:40

Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013

Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013

Slowly but surely, Japan's bond market is approaching its inevitable disintegration.

With the BOJ caught in an impossible dilemma, where on one hand it is facing soaring inflation and is forced to tighten monetary policy to prop up and push the imploding yen higher in order to avoid social rebellion,  while on the other hand, said tightening is pushing bond yields ever higher as the BOJ steps away from being the buyer of first, last and any other resort, a bond market which is majority owned by the same BOJ, this morning Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to 1% for the first time in 11 years, propelled by growing expectations that the BOJ will have to take further tightening steps in the coming months as rampant inflation persists .

The 10-year yield briefly touched the threshold Wednesday, its highest level since May 2013, before swinging both below and above the historic level later in the session.

Longer-term JGB yields climbed more sharply than the 10-year yield. The 30-year yield was recently 5.5 basis points higher at 2.140%.

Investors have been speculating about the timing of another Bank of Japan rate hike and a possible reduction in its government-bond purchases after the BOJ ended its negative interest-rate policy and halted much of its unorthodox easing measures in March, which however were viewed as so dovish and were so eagerly telegraphed, the decision to "tighten" actually sent the yen plummeting, and unleashed even more inflation.

Some analysts say the Japanese central bank might slow its bond-buying partly to support the yen, which has depreciated sharply over the past couple of years as the BOJ maintained its ultraloose monetary policy while other central banks raised interest rates.

Last week, the BOJ offered to buy a smaller amount of Japanese government bonds maturing in five to 10 years on the following day compared with its previous operation, and maintained the reduced amount on Friday. That raised speculation that it will start winding back its monthly JGB purchases.

Commenting on the yen’s muted reaction to the 10Y JGB yield hitting 1%, BofA strategist Shusuke Yamada said the key point is that market volatility has decreased, making it easier to sell the yen for low-interest-rate carry trades. Indeed, the USDJPY rose to a session high of 156.60 briefly in Tokyo as outward direct investment and outward securities investment through NISA continue to be in the background. As for yen interest rates, nominal rates are rising, but real rates are still negative.

Meanwhile, the strategist also noted that Japan-US interest rate differential is still above 5% for the short term, which is the target of the carry, and yen is not going to strengthen just because the interest rate differential has narrowed a little. In fact, according to Yamada, the valuation of the yen as undervalued will not come into play until the short-term Japan-US interest rate differential falls below at least the 3% level.  For example, even if interest rate differentials in the 5% range stop falling at the 4% level, it is difficult to correct the yen’s depreciation

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 20:33

EcoHealth Funding Suspension Is Pure Theater

EcoHealth Funding Suspension Is Pure Theater

Authored by Debbie Lerman via the Brownstone Institute,

Peter Daszak is the President of EcoHealth Alliance, the organization most closely associated with the potential lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) that may have started the Covid crisis.

The US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability has recently done a lot of “research” on Daszak and EcoHealth, resulting in a published report on May 1, 2024 with the earth-shattering finding that there exist “serious and systemic weaknesses in the federal government’s—particularly NIH’s—grant making processes.” Furthermore, these very bad weaknesses “not only place United States taxpayer dollars at risk of waste, fraud, and abuse but also risk the national security of the United States.”

This sounds pretty serious: Our taxpayer dollars and our national security are at risk. Some very bad things are happening, apparently. What are those bad things? “Weaknesses in the NIH’s grant making process.” Is that really all the Committee could come up with? If those grant-making weaknesses are so terrible, what does it recommend we do about them?

Based on its findings, the Committee recommended some very broad, but not very specific, actions:

  1. To Congress: “Reign in [they used “reign” instead of “rein” —a noteworthy Freudian slip] the unelected bureaucracy, especially within government funded public health. 
  2. To the Administration: Recognize EcoHealth and its President, Dr. Daszak, as bad actors…and ensure neither EcoHealth nor Dr. Daszak are awarded another cent, especially for dangerous and poorly monitored research. 

The Administration must have taken heed, because a mere two weeks later, on May 15, 2024, the Subcommittee made this triumphant announcement:

HHS has begun efforts to cut off all U.S. funding to this corrupt organization. EcoHealth facilitated gain-of-function research in Wuhan, China without proper oversight, willingly violated multiple requirements of its multimillion-dollar National Institutes of Health grant, and apparently made false statements to the NIH. These actions are wholly abhorrent, indefensible, and must be addressed with swift action.

Note the bizarre disconnect between the description of “this corrupt organization” and its “abhorrent, indefensible” actions, and the accusations leading to such extreme claims, which include conducting research without proper oversight (nobody ever does that!), violating requirements of its NIH grant (a bureaucratic infraction) and “apparently” making false statements to the NIH (not even for sure).

In any event, “swift action” must be taken. What exactly is that action?

“HHS has begun efforts to cut off all U.S. funding” to EcoHealth. “Begun efforts”—sounds like concrete results are imminent. Not just imminent but consequential. Like “future debarment” and “funding suspension.” (sarcasm intended)

But wait. Didn’t they already do that? Yes, they did.

2020 Funding Suspension

Quick reminder: On April 24, 2020, the NIH canceled funding for Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) gain-of-function research led by EcoHealth Alliance, because the Trump Administration suspected (or knew) such research may have had something to do with the Covid pandemic.

The scientific world was outraged. Seventy-seven US Nobel Laureates and 31 scientific societies wrote to NIH leadership requesting review of the decision. Gain-of-function research must continue! In August 2020 the NIH reversed the cancellation and started funding EcoHealth and WIV again. [ref]

The Nobel Laureates and scientific societies won the day: Humanity-saving research to develop deadly pathogens not found in nature could continue unhindered by radical NIH funding cuts.

And yet: NIH grants are a mere fraction of EcoHealth Alliance’s overall government funding.

So Which Funds Are Being “Suspended” This Time Around?

Actually, none.

The very threatening “notice of suspension and proposed debarment” sent to EcoHealth Alliance by HHS on May 15, 2024, reassures the organization (whose behavior has been abhorrent and indefensible) that “suspension and debarment actions are not punitive.”

We’re not trying to punish you for your bad behavior, the letter says. We just want to make sure there are non-punitive “consequences” for that behavior. For example:

Offers will not be solicited from, contracts will not be awarded to, existing contracts will not be renewed or otherwise extended for, and subcontracts requiring United States Federal Government approval will not be approved for EHA [EcoHealth Alliance] by any agency in the executive branch of the United States Federal Government, unless the head of the agency taking the contracting action determines that there is a compelling reason for such action. 

[BOLDFACE ADDED]

In other words, if the head of the “agency taking the contracting action” determines there is “a compelling reason” to contract with Ecohealth, then this whole suspension and debarment thing is moot. So not punitive. And, pretty much, no consequences. And, also, no funds “suspended.”

Nevertheless, given the horrendous behavior of EcoHealth, as detailed in the announcement of the non-punitive consequences—how could any government agencies possibly have compelling reasons to engage in “contracting action” with “this corrupt organization?”

EcoHealth is Mostly Funded by the State Department and Pentagon

In an extensive expose on Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance, the Intercept reported in December 2021:

EcoHealth Alliance’s funding from the U.S. government, which Daszak has said makes up some 80 percent of its budget, has also grown in recent years. Since 2002, according to an Intercept analysis of public records, the organization has received more than $118 million in grants and contracts from federal agencies, $42 million of which comes from the Department of Defense. Much of that money has been awarded through programs focused not on health or ecology, however, but on the prevention of biowarfare, bioterrorism, and other misuses of pathogens.

[BOLDFACE ADDED]

Here’s what nearly two decades of government funding for EcoHealth Alliance looks like (graph from Intercept article): 

As RFK Jr. wrote, based on this information, in The Wuhan Cover-Up:

By far, Daszak’s largest funding pool was the CIA surrogate, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Through USAID, the CIA funneled nearly $65 million in PREDICT funding to EcoHealth between 2009 and 2020.

(p. 228, Kindle Edition)

Yet another article examining Daszak’s military/biodefense ties appeared in Independent Scientist News in December 2020, reporting that most of EcoHealth Alliance’s Pentagon funding “was from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), which is a branch of the DOD which states it is tasked to “counter and deter weapons of mass destruction and improvised threat networks.”

Furthermore,

The military links of the EcoHealth Alliance are not limited to money and mindset. One noteworthy ‘policy advisor’ to the EcoHealth Alliance is David Franz. Franz is former commander of Fort Detrick, which is the principal US government biowarfare/biodefense facility.

The ISN article also provides a handy spreadsheet detailing EcoHealth funding.

So What is the Oversight Committee Overlooking—and Why?

There is no mention of DoD, DTRA, or USAID funding in the Committee’s announcement or in the utterly performative, 100% toothless notice of suspension and debarment they sent to Peter Daszak. Does the US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability not know who the major government funders of EcoHealth Alliance are? 

If any agency can bypass the suspension and debarment by “determining that there is compelling reason” to fund EcoHealth, what is the point of those non-punitive consequences?

Why this charade of accountability when, in fact, the supposed overseers are willfully ignoring what’s actually going on?

Clearly, the Committee is not interested in investigating Daszak’s role in the biodefense industry that was responsible not just for the gain-of-function research that may have created SARS-CoV-2, but for the entire Covid pandemic response—which was most definitely not about public health and was, in fact, all about creating and administering the medical countermeasures which were the monomaniacal focus of the biodefense responders.

What to Ask Peter Daszak if We Had Actual Oversight

If the Committee were serious about investigating Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance, here are some questions they would ask:

Non-Public Health Funding Sources and Projects
  • Most of the government funding for EcoHealth Alliance comes not from public health agencies but from USAID (State Department/CIA) and the Pentagon. What projects are these non-public health agencies funding? Are these projects related to biodefense/biowarfare research?
  • Is the USAID and Pentagon-funded virus research conducted by EcoHealth and/or its partners intended primarily to prepare for naturally occurring pandemics or for potential biowarfare/bioterrorism attacks?
  • Do the USAID and Pentagon-funded projects conducted by EcoHealth and/or its partners involve creating pandemic potential pathogens as part of biodefense/biowarfare research?
  • Do you know or suspect that SARS-CoV-2 was an engineered virus created as part of a USAID and Pentagon-funded biowarfare/biodefense project?
  • Do the USAID and Pentagon-funded projects conducted by EcoHealth and/or its partners involve work on medical countermeasures against potential biowarfare/bioterrorism agents?
Disease X Op-Ed
  • On February 27, 2020, before the Covid pandemic had been declared and before anyone in the US had died of Covid-19, you wrote an op-ed for the New York Times stating that the novel coronavirus was “Disease X.” You explained that the term “Disease X” was coined by you and a bunch of experts at the World Health Organization in 2018. In your report from 2018, it says:

Disease X represents the awareness that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently not recognized to cause human disease. Disease X may also be a known pathogen that has changed its epidemiological characteristics, for example by increasing its transmissibility or severity.

Why were you so sure, so early on, even before we knew there was a pandemic, that this was “Disease X?” What was it about SARS-CoV-2 (which, after all, was named as a direct successor of the original SARS, to which it was said to be very similar) that made it seem so uniquely dangerous to you? Why did you feel you had to warn the whole world about it on the pages of the NYT? 

  • Did you think SARS-CoV-2 was a known pathogen that had “changed its epidemiological characteristics” by “increasing its transmissibility or severity”? If yes, what made you think that?
  • Did you think SARS-CoV-2 was a potential bioweapon that had been developed using funds from USAID and DOD by EcoHealth Alliance and/or its research partners in China or elsewhere?
  • The New York Times has subsequently erased your “Disease X” op-ed from their online 2/27/2020 issue. You can only find it through the direct link. Why do you think they have made it all but impossible for anyone who doesn’t already know about the article to find it? Do you regret having written it?
Linking Disease X to Genetic Vaccine Platforms
  • In the NYT op-ed, you provided a link from the term “Disease X” to a 2018 CNN article in which Dr. Anthony Fauci says that, in order to combat such dangerous as-yet-nonexistent pathogens, “the WHO recognizes that it must “nimbly move” and that this involves creating “platform technologies.” 

Fauci goes on to say that “scientists develop customizable recipes for creating vaccines. Then, when an outbreak happens, they can sequence the unique genetics of the virus causing the disease, and plug the correct sequence into the already-developed platform to create a new vaccine.”

That sounds an awful lot like the mRNA platform used for the Covid countermeasures that came to be known as the “mRNA vaccines.” 

Why did you link to that particular article from your op-ed about disease X? Were you suggesting that the solution to the pandemic that you appeared to be predicting would be a genetic platform in which the “correct sequence” could be plugged to create vaccines? 

  • Were you already aware of the Covid mRNA vaccines being developed at the time of your op-ed (February 27, 2020) by Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer, long before the official launch of Operation Warp Speed (May 2020)?
  • Is it true that the Pentagon considered the mRNA platforms to be the preferred countermeasures against Covid-19, and that these were always intended to reach full funding and development, starting all the way back in January 2020?
  • Was the USAID and Pentagon-funded research conducted EcoHealth and/or its partners related to the development of such mRNA vaccines? If so, how?
The Need for a Crisis to Justify Funding and Development of Genetic Vaccine Platforms

Until an infectious disease crisis is very real, present, and at an emergency threshold, it is often largely ignored. To sustain the funding base beyond the crisis, we need to increase public understanding of the need for MCMs such as a pan-influenza or pan-coronavirus vaccine. A key driver is the media, and the economics follow the hype. We need to use that hype to our advantage to get to the real issues. Investors will respond if they see profit at the end of the process.

It sounds like you’re saying we need the media to hype up a crisis so that investors will want to fund the type of pan-coronavirus vaccine that is exactly the genetic platform you highlighted in your op-ed, and also exactly the platform that emerged into public awareness shortly after your op-ed, and became known as the Covid mRNA vaccines.

Can you explain this uncanny overlap between your description of what was needed to get such platforms developed in 2016 and what actually happened in 2020?

  • Did the USAID and Pentagon-funded research on coronaviruses conducted by EcoHealth Alliance and/or its partners support the development of such platforms? If so, how?
  • Were you aware of a plan to use the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 as a trigger for the media hype, public-private funding, and massive mRNA vaccine development and deployment in early 2020 – exactly as you described them in 2016?
  • If you were aware of such a plan, who was involved in it, and what was your role?
Conclusion

The US House Committee on Oversight and Accountability has made a big show of publicly chastising Peter Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance for terrible behavior in the way they managed their funding from the NIH. The Committee has also highlighted very bad weaknesses in the grant-making process of the NIH that need to be corrected.

As a result of the Committee’s recommendations, the HHS (parent agency of NIH) has issued a non-punitive notice to Peter Daszak, stating that EcoHealth cannot receive another penny of government funding…unless a government agency decides there is a compelling reason to provide such funding.

Clearly, all of the Committee’s investigations, reports, recommendations, and notices in this matter are purely performative, considering 1) they actually impose no consequences, and 2) they ignore the fact that most of Daszak and EcoHealth’s funding come from military and State Department sources for work on biodefense/biowarfare-related projects.

Is the Committee’s work just another example of bureaucratic incompetence and “waste, fraud and abuse” of our precious taxpayer dollars?

Or is it an intentional diversion, to distract us from the work the US government was/is actually funding at bioweapons labs like the one in Wuhan, engineering pandemic potential pathogens and then deploying global public-private partnerships to develop medical countermeasures against those pathogens—all of which came together to create the catastrophe known as the Covid pandemic?

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 20:20

Bean Used In Instant Coffee Soars The Most Since 2011

Bean Used In Instant Coffee Soars The Most Since 2011

Futures for robusta, the cheaper coffee bean grown at lower altitudes and requiring less care than more expensive arabica, jumped the most in London on Tuesday since 2011 as concerns increased over shrinking supplies from top grower Vietnam.

Robusta bean prices in London closed up 6.72% on Tuesday, the largest daily increase since April 5, 2011—or more than 13 years ago. The driver has been droughts crushing production in Vietnam. Even though rains have improved the outlook, supply woes linger throughout the year. 

Robust demand for the bean and a recent International Coffee Organization report warning about global supply woes have sent bean prices soaring. Since 2020, the bean has jumped 265%. 

On Tuesday, Andrea Illy, chairman of Italian coffee roaster Illycaffe SpA, warned on Bloomberg TV that demand for robusta beans is very strong, even as arabica is not being used in blends. 

"It's a quite unique dynamic in the market," Illy said, adding that "for certain kinds of preparation, like instant coffee, robusta is more important."

A recent note from Rabobank analyst Guilherme Morya showed strong exports for robusta and arabica from Brazil, the world's top coffee producer. He cited the growing uncertainties about Vietnam's production as attracting fast-money hedge funds into the futures market. 

Last Friday, a report from the US Department of Agriculture said harvests in Indonesia will begin this month or next, marking a "substantial delay from the norm" due to El-Nino-related droughts. 

Here are two of our latest notes on the global physical coffee market:

Meanwhile, robusta, arabica, cocoa, and orange juice futures have been spiraling higher.

This comes as spot commodities tracked by Bloomberg are moving higher

Soaring commodity prices are not the best news for Fed doves, hoping Powell will squeeze off at least two interest rate cuts by the end of the year. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 20:00

2024 & The Inevitable Rise Of Biometrics

2024 & The Inevitable Rise Of Biometrics

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Have you noticed a lot of two-factor authentication prompts lately? Are you getting emailed verification codes that take forever to arrive, so you have to request another?

Perhaps you are asked to do captchas to “prove you’re human” and they seem to be getting more complex all the time or simply not working at all?

Why do you think that might be?

We’ll come back to that.

Did you know we’re in a “breakthrough year” for biometric payment systems?

According to this story from CNBC, JPMorgan and Mastercard are on board with the technology and intend a wide rollout in the near future, following successful trials.

In March this year, JPMorgan signed a deal with PopID to begin a broad release of biometric payment systems in 2025.

A Mastercard spokesman told CNBC:

Our focus on biometrics as a secure way to verify identity, replacing the password with the person, is at the heart of our efforts in this area,”

Apple Pay already lets you pay with a face scan, while Amazon have introduced pay-by-palm in many of their real-world stores.

VISA showcased their latest palm biometric payment set-up at an event in Singapore earlier this year.

As we covered in a recent This Week, PayPal is pushing out its own biometric payment systems in the name of “preventing fraud”.

As always, this is not just an issue in “the West”.

Chinese companies have been leading this race for a while, with AliPay having biometric payment options since 2015.

Moscow’s Metro system has been using facial recognition cameras for biometric payments for over a year.

And it’s not just payments, “replacing the password with the person” has already spread to other areas.

Hoping to corral support for biometrics from the right, national governments are collecting biometrics to “curb illegal immigration”. You can expect that to spread.

The European Union will be implementing a new Biometric Entry-Exit System (EES) as soon as October of this year.

Biometric signing is on the rise too.

Laptops tablets and smartphones already come with face-reading and fingerprint scanning technology to confirm your identity.

Social media companies have been collecting biometric data “for security and identification purposes” for years.

Google Play launched a new biometric accessibility feature only a couple of weeks ago.

It’s all just so convenient, isn’t it? So much faster than e-mailing security codes and solving increasingly impossible captchas (both of which have unaccountably got harder and more complicated recently, and will doubtless continue to do so).

That’s how they get you: Convenience.

They won’t ever remove the “old-fashioned” ways of accessing your accounts, but it will get increasingly slow and difficult to use while biometrics get faster and easier.

Meanwhile, the propaganda will begin to flow.

Influencers will be paid to use “cool” “futuristic” biometric payment options that “feel like having superpowers” in contrived “viral” videos. Biometrics will save the day in a trendy movie or TV show. Some old fuddy-duddy will go on Question Time and rant about the new technology…just before saying something racist or denying climate change.

Maybe a major hack or cyber-attack will only affect those who haven’t switched to biometric authentication yet.

You get the idea.

And all the while supra-national corporate megaliths will be creating a massive database of voice recordings, finger and palm prints, facial and retinal scans.

It’s a good thing we’re ruled by a morally upright elite. Imagine the damage they could do with all of that.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/22/2024 - 19:40

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