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AP Shills For Big Pharma Antidepressants With 'Bewildering' Hit Piece

AP Shills For Big Pharma Antidepressants With 'Bewildering' Hit Piece

Check this out... The Trump FDA's top drug regulator, Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, is working to hire a researcher and friend who strongly believes the agency should add new warnings about antidepressants and pregnancy risks. 

So what does the Associated Press do? They pen a hit piece, smearing Hoeg, her associate, and suggesting that peer reviewed studies over the risks are 'unproven.' 

This is how the medical arm of the blob works, and Paul Thacker of the DisInformation Chronicle is calling them out... 

* * *

Associated Press Cannot Explain Bewildering Reporting on FDA’s Tracy Hoeg and Antidepressant Risks

By Paul D. Thacker

Cruising through X last week a weird story caught my eye: it reported that The Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, was trying to hire a “friend” who wants the FDA to add warnings to antidepressants about “unproven pregnancy risks.” The story makes several claims that are bewildering and appear to be fabricated. I sent several questions to AP’s global health editor Jonathan Fahey, but he did not respond to repeated requests to explain the article’s puzzling errors.

AP reporter Matthew Perrone later blocked me on X. I’ve pasted my email to Fahey at the bottom of this article.

The person AP’s Matthew Perrone identifies as a “friend” of FDA’s Hoeg is Dr. Adam Urato, chief of maternal-fetal medicine at Metro West Medical Center in Massachusetts.

One passage in the AP story stood out to me:

Within the agency, Hoeg’s close relationship with Urato is viewed as a clear conflict of interest that, under normal FDA standards, would result in her recusing herself from any work on the petition. But Hoeg is actively working to speed up the agency’s review of her friend’s proposal, according to the people familiar with the situation.

I have never seen the term “friend” defined as a “conflict of interest” by any federal agency. Nor have I run across “friend” defined as a “conflict of interest” in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. It’s a conflict of interest that doesn’t seem to exist.

And I happen to know quite a bit about conflicts of interest in science, because I’m an expert on the matter.

While I was a Senate staffer, I wrote a law on conflicts of interest called the Physicians Payments Sunshine Act. The bill I wrote was later passed into law and you can now go look up doctors on the government’s Open Payments website to see who is giving them money. I’m sure AP reporters use this website all the time. During my time in the Senate, I also helped to reform conflicts of interest at the National Institutes of Health. This took thousands of hours, untold numbers of meetings, and years of work to complete.

When I left the Senate and joined the Safra Ethics Center at Harvard, I was celebrated as the “Father of Sunshine” for this work to reform conflicts of interest in medicine.

Confused by the AP’s confusing reporting, I contacted Health and Human Services (HHS) and FDA, sending them almost the exact same questions that I sent to AP’s Jonathan Fahey.

“Being a friend is not a violation of ethics or conflicts of interests’ laws,” wrote HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon, in an email. Several senior FDA officials told me that HHS doesn’t even have a legal definition for what a “friend” is and no government conflict of interest form asks people to identify who their friends are.

“It’s a hit piece from industry against Dr. Hoeg, who is doing an amazing job at the FDA,” said one FDA official.

Hoeg did not respond to requests for comment, but during a phone call, Urato told me the AP story was filled with fake facts. The FDA has not offered him a full-time job as AP reported, and if they did, he couldn’t take it as he has a full-time clinical practice with hundreds of patients. FDA has expressed interest in offering him a limited, part-time position as an “advisor,” but nothing has been formalized.

He’s known Hoeg for only a couple years, and met her once when he went to DC to testify in favor of a labelling change for antidepressants that warns pregnant women about the documented risks for fetuses.

“This whole thing is being made up, and it’s an absurdity,” Urato said. “I’m not close friends with her as we’ve only discussed work. But If I say I’m not friends with her, then it’s like saying I’m her enemy.”

In his practice, Urato treats depressed women who are on antidepressants and always advises them of the research that has found risks for these drugs to developing fetuses. To ensure all women are warned, he has started a petition that asks the FDA to place a formal warning on the label for antidepressants. READ PETITION HERE.

“There’s 12 MRI studies in humans that show brain alterations found in offspring who were exposed in utero to antidepressants, and the corporate media has ignored this,” Urato says.

The AP falsely states in their story that Urato is making up “unproven pregnancy risks” but Nature Communications published a peer-reviewed study last May that found these exact risks that AP denies. The children of pregnant mothers on antidepressants later exhibited higher anxiety and depression symptoms than unexposed kids. Kids exposed to antidepressants while in utero were also found to have different brain activity when shown photos of fearful faces.

“These findings have potential implications for the clinical use of [antidepressants] during human pregnancy and for designing interventions that protect fetal brain development,” the authors concluded. The study appears in Urato’s petition along with dozens of other peer-reviewed studies.

“What a woman should do varies from patient to patient,” Urato told me. “But the first thing is to inform them. We know that cancer drugs are toxic, but we don’t ignore that and hide it from patients for fear they won’t get treated for cancer.”

Urato says he doesn’t know if the FDA will act on his petition, despite the evidence. “What the FDA will do with that, I don’t know.” However, Urato has had success with a prior FDA petition.

Urato partnered with Public Citizen in 2019 to petition the FDA to withdraw the drug Makena, because it had been approved to stop premature births without adequate data showing it helped pregnant women. The FDA later agreed with the petition and withdrew Makena from the market in 2023.

Oddly enough, AP’s Matthew Perrone covered Urato’s success at getting the FDA to remove Makena from the market, which you can read here: “FDA forces unproven premature birth drug Makena off market.”

“This is all a distraction,” Urato told me. “It’s so stupid. Of course we need to warn women.”

FULL DISCLOSURE: While working in the Senate, I was invited to give the keynote address at a conference on conflicts of interest in medicine and research hosted at Tufts University. Administrators later withdrew my invitation, causing one of the organizers to resign and creating a minor scandal that made news in the Boston Globe.

“It’s too bad a reform perspective has been removed from the program,” the Senate Committee’s spokeswoman told the Globe.

Some days later, I got a call from a physician who said Tufts organizers chose him to give the keynote speech in my place. I remember him being irate that Tufts had silenced me. He told me he wanted to know exactly what I was going to say, as he was going to give my exact same talk. He then took notes as I explained my speech. I may have also sent him my slide deck, but I can’t remember as this conversation took place in 2009.

I do remember laughing during the conversation at the thought that Tufts administrators were going to hear exactly what I was going to say, although it was coming from the mouth of someone they deemed more acceptable.

When I called Urato for this story, I thought it was the first time we had ever communicated. However, he reminded me during our conversation that he was the physician who called me all those years back, angry that Tufts had cancelled my keynote address. And he was the person who gave my talk at Tufts about the importance of conflicts of interest in medicine. Urato sent me this article in the Tufts newspaper to show this was the case.

I have no clue if AP or other reporters believe this makes Urato and I “friends” but feel free to discuss in the comments below.

* * *

Below is the email I sent to AP asking them to explain their bewildering article.

Hello Jonathan,

I’m working on a story about this AP article that claims FDA’s Tracy Hoeg is bringing a “friend” to FDA and that this is an FDA conflict of interest. That story is here https://apnews.com/article/hoeg-urato-fda-drugs-antidepressants-pregnancy-warnings-a2a48cd2285f5b33aef2d390b5b60d0c

While I was a Senate staffer, I wrote a law on COI called the Physicians Payments Sunshine Act that many reporters now use through the government’s Open Payments website. I also helped to reform NIH COI regs. I also wrote an award winning series for the BMJ on FDA COVID vaccine approvals by digging through FDA COI disclosures.

The AP alleges in this passage, which I’ve put in italics:

Within the agency, Hoeg’s close relationship with Urato is viewed as a clear conflict of interest that, under normal FDA standards, would result in her recusing herself from any work on the petition. But Hoeg is actively working to speed up the agency’s review of her friend’s proposal, according to the people familiar with the situation.

I have never seen the term “friend” defined as a COI for any federal agency. Nor have I run across this claim in the peer-reviewed literature. I also don’t know what “friend” means as I spoke to Adam Urato and he said he’s met Hoeg only a few times and it was only over professional matters.

Senior FDA officials have contacted me and explained that the FDA General Counsel has no legal definition of “friend” and no record of “friend” appearing in any COI policies. I have a couple questions, please.

1. Can you provide me with any evidence FDA/HHS has a legal definition for the term “friend”?

2. Can you provide me with an FDA/HHS policy that lists the term “friend” as a conflict of interest, as AP reports?

3. AP states that Urato wants FDA to add new warnings to antidepressants about “unproven pregnancy risks.” Nature communications published a study about the pregnancy risks to fetuses and SSRI use last May. Can you explain to readers why AP thinks this study is false? Has it been retracted? This is one of many studies showing effects to fetuses from SSRI use.

Again, we need a response by COB today.

Thank you for your time,

Paul

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 17:55

AP Shills For Big Pharma Antidepressants With 'Bewildering' Hit Piece

AP Shills For Big Pharma Antidepressants With 'Bewildering' Hit Piece

Check this out... The Trump FDA's top drug regulator, Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, is working to hire a researcher and friend who strongly believes the agency should add new warnings about antidepressants and pregnancy risks. 

So what does the Associated Press do? They pen a hit piece, smearing Hoeg, her associate, and suggesting that peer reviewed studies over the risks are 'unproven.' 

This is how the medical arm of the blob works, and Paul Thacker of the DisInformation Chronicle is calling them out... 

* * *

Associated Press Cannot Explain Bewildering Reporting on FDA’s Tracy Hoeg and Antidepressant Risks

By Paul D. Thacker

Cruising through X last week a weird story caught my eye: it reported that The Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, was trying to hire a “friend” who wants the FDA to add warnings to antidepressants about “unproven pregnancy risks.” The story makes several claims that are bewildering and appear to be fabricated. I sent several questions to AP’s global health editor Jonathan Fahey, but he did not respond to repeated requests to explain the article’s puzzling errors.

AP reporter Matthew Perrone later blocked me on X. I’ve pasted my email to Fahey at the bottom of this article.

The person AP’s Matthew Perrone identifies as a “friend” of FDA’s Hoeg is Dr. Adam Urato, chief of maternal-fetal medicine at Metro West Medical Center in Massachusetts.

One passage in the AP story stood out to me:

Within the agency, Hoeg’s close relationship with Urato is viewed as a clear conflict of interest that, under normal FDA standards, would result in her recusing herself from any work on the petition. But Hoeg is actively working to speed up the agency’s review of her friend’s proposal, according to the people familiar with the situation.

I have never seen the term “friend” defined as a “conflict of interest” by any federal agency. Nor have I run across “friend” defined as a “conflict of interest” in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. It’s a conflict of interest that doesn’t seem to exist.

And I happen to know quite a bit about conflicts of interest in science, because I’m an expert on the matter.

While I was a Senate staffer, I wrote a law on conflicts of interest called the Physicians Payments Sunshine Act. The bill I wrote was later passed into law and you can now go look up doctors on the government’s Open Payments website to see who is giving them money. I’m sure AP reporters use this website all the time. During my time in the Senate, I also helped to reform conflicts of interest at the National Institutes of Health. This took thousands of hours, untold numbers of meetings, and years of work to complete.

When I left the Senate and joined the Safra Ethics Center at Harvard, I was celebrated as the “Father of Sunshine” for this work to reform conflicts of interest in medicine.

Confused by the AP’s confusing reporting, I contacted Health and Human Services (HHS) and FDA, sending them almost the exact same questions that I sent to AP’s Jonathan Fahey.

“Being a friend is not a violation of ethics or conflicts of interests’ laws,” wrote HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon, in an email. Several senior FDA officials told me that HHS doesn’t even have a legal definition for what a “friend” is and no government conflict of interest form asks people to identify who their friends are.

“It’s a hit piece from industry against Dr. Hoeg, who is doing an amazing job at the FDA,” said one FDA official.

Hoeg did not respond to requests for comment, but during a phone call, Urato told me the AP story was filled with fake facts. The FDA has not offered him a full-time job as AP reported, and if they did, he couldn’t take it as he has a full-time clinical practice with hundreds of patients. FDA has expressed interest in offering him a limited, part-time position as an “advisor,” but nothing has been formalized.

He’s known Hoeg for only a couple years, and met her once when he went to DC to testify in favor of a labelling change for antidepressants that warns pregnant women about the documented risks for fetuses.

“This whole thing is being made up, and it’s an absurdity,” Urato said. “I’m not close friends with her as we’ve only discussed work. But If I say I’m not friends with her, then it’s like saying I’m her enemy.”

In his practice, Urato treats depressed women who are on antidepressants and always advises them of the research that has found risks for these drugs to developing fetuses. To ensure all women are warned, he has started a petition that asks the FDA to place a formal warning on the label for antidepressants. READ PETITION HERE.

“There’s 12 MRI studies in humans that show brain alterations found in offspring who were exposed in utero to antidepressants, and the corporate media has ignored this,” Urato says.

The AP falsely states in their story that Urato is making up “unproven pregnancy risks” but Nature Communications published a peer-reviewed study last May that found these exact risks that AP denies. The children of pregnant mothers on antidepressants later exhibited higher anxiety and depression symptoms than unexposed kids. Kids exposed to antidepressants while in utero were also found to have different brain activity when shown photos of fearful faces.

“These findings have potential implications for the clinical use of [antidepressants] during human pregnancy and for designing interventions that protect fetal brain development,” the authors concluded. The study appears in Urato’s petition along with dozens of other peer-reviewed studies.

“What a woman should do varies from patient to patient,” Urato told me. “But the first thing is to inform them. We know that cancer drugs are toxic, but we don’t ignore that and hide it from patients for fear they won’t get treated for cancer.”

Urato says he doesn’t know if the FDA will act on his petition, despite the evidence. “What the FDA will do with that, I don’t know.” However, Urato has had success with a prior FDA petition.

Urato partnered with Public Citizen in 2019 to petition the FDA to withdraw the drug Makena, because it had been approved to stop premature births without adequate data showing it helped pregnant women. The FDA later agreed with the petition and withdrew Makena from the market in 2023.

Oddly enough, AP’s Matthew Perrone covered Urato’s success at getting the FDA to remove Makena from the market, which you can read here: “FDA forces unproven premature birth drug Makena off market.”

“This is all a distraction,” Urato told me. “It’s so stupid. Of course we need to warn women.”

FULL DISCLOSURE: While working in the Senate, I was invited to give the keynote address at a conference on conflicts of interest in medicine and research hosted at Tufts University. Administrators later withdrew my invitation, causing one of the organizers to resign and creating a minor scandal that made news in the Boston Globe.

“It’s too bad a reform perspective has been removed from the program,” the Senate Committee’s spokeswoman told the Globe.

Some days later, I got a call from a physician who said Tufts organizers chose him to give the keynote speech in my place. I remember him being irate that Tufts had silenced me. He told me he wanted to know exactly what I was going to say, as he was going to give my exact same talk. He then took notes as I explained my speech. I may have also sent him my slide deck, but I can’t remember as this conversation took place in 2009.

I do remember laughing during the conversation at the thought that Tufts administrators were going to hear exactly what I was going to say, although it was coming from the mouth of someone they deemed more acceptable.

When I called Urato for this story, I thought it was the first time we had ever communicated. However, he reminded me during our conversation that he was the physician who called me all those years back, angry that Tufts had cancelled my keynote address. And he was the person who gave my talk at Tufts about the importance of conflicts of interest in medicine. Urato sent me this article in the Tufts newspaper to show this was the case.

I have no clue if AP or other reporters believe this makes Urato and I “friends” but feel free to discuss in the comments below.

* * *

Below is the email I sent to AP asking them to explain their bewildering article.

Hello Jonathan,

I’m working on a story about this AP article that claims FDA’s Tracy Hoeg is bringing a “friend” to FDA and that this is an FDA conflict of interest. That story is here https://apnews.com/article/hoeg-urato-fda-drugs-antidepressants-pregnancy-warnings-a2a48cd2285f5b33aef2d390b5b60d0c

While I was a Senate staffer, I wrote a law on COI called the Physicians Payments Sunshine Act that many reporters now use through the government’s Open Payments website. I also helped to reform NIH COI regs. I also wrote an award winning series for the BMJ on FDA COVID vaccine approvals by digging through FDA COI disclosures.

The AP alleges in this passage, which I’ve put in italics:

Within the agency, Hoeg’s close relationship with Urato is viewed as a clear conflict of interest that, under normal FDA standards, would result in her recusing herself from any work on the petition. But Hoeg is actively working to speed up the agency’s review of her friend’s proposal, according to the people familiar with the situation.

I have never seen the term “friend” defined as a COI for any federal agency. Nor have I run across this claim in the peer-reviewed literature. I also don’t know what “friend” means as I spoke to Adam Urato and he said he’s met Hoeg only a few times and it was only over professional matters.

Senior FDA officials have contacted me and explained that the FDA General Counsel has no legal definition of “friend” and no record of “friend” appearing in any COI policies. I have a couple questions, please.

1. Can you provide me with any evidence FDA/HHS has a legal definition for the term “friend”?

2. Can you provide me with an FDA/HHS policy that lists the term “friend” as a conflict of interest, as AP reports?

3. AP states that Urato wants FDA to add new warnings to antidepressants about “unproven pregnancy risks.” Nature communications published a study about the pregnancy risks to fetuses and SSRI use last May. Can you explain to readers why AP thinks this study is false? Has it been retracted? This is one of many studies showing effects to fetuses from SSRI use.

Again, we need a response by COB today.

Thank you for your time,

Paul

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 17:55

Rand Paul Warns Of "Disastrous" Midterms For GOP If Iran War Continues

Rand Paul Warns Of "Disastrous" Midterms For GOP If Iran War Continues

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a leading voice for non-interventionism within the Republican Party, warned Tuesday that prolonged U.S. military action against Iran could spell disaster for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

In an interview on Fox Business with host Maria Bartiromo, Paul downplayed internal party divisions as the main risk, instead pointing to economic fallout from the conflict, which began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28.

“How worried are you that a split Republican Party will only mean losses in the midterm elections?” Ms. Bartiromo asked. “How are you expecting the midterms to play out?”

“I don’t think split party is the problem. I think high oil prices will be a problem. I think the 2026 election’s already – we are behind the eight ball as far as the electoral process,” Mr. Paul replied. "I think if you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action – people don’t want to call it war – but if there’s still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you’re gonna see a disastrous election.”

In what should set off alarm bells in the White House and the House Speaker’s Office, Polymarket’s “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” market shows Democrats have a 44% of sweeping Congress in the midterms.

The U.S.-Israel strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening wave, along with dozens of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials and other regime figures. Iranian sources reported 1,255 deaths and more than 12,000 injured. U.S. and Israeli assessments put Iranian military deaths at around 3,000. Iranian retaliatory missile and drone strikes killed 7 U.S. military personnel and 13 people in Israel.

The joint campaign has inflicted extensive damage on Iran's military infrastructure, including the sinking of over 30 naval vessels, destruction of ballistic missile launchers and production facilities, airfields, drone sites, key IRGC bases, and residual nuclear-related structures at sites such as Natanz and Isfahan. Air defenses were heavily degraded, limiting Tehran's ability to mount sustained retaliation, while allied proxy groups like Hezbollah sustained further losses.'

On Monday, President Donald Trump suggested that the war could end soon, describing the operation as a "short-term excursion" that was "very complete, pretty much.” Yet, the president warned of harsher military action should Iran attempt to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil markets welcomed Trump’s dovish overtures as crude oil prices plunged as much as 10% on Tuesday morning, with Brent sliding around 8% to $91 a barrel and U.S. crude dropping 8.1% to roughly $87.

//--> //--> 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Yes 45% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 17:30

Loans To Non-Banks Threaten Banking Crisis

Loans To Non-Banks Threaten Banking Crisis

Authored by Christopher Whalen via DailyReckoning.com,

Last week, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp released the industry data for US banks for 2025.

On the surface, the numbers look reassuring, even strong. But beneath the calm headline figures lies a growing risk that investors should not ignore.

Domestic deposits increased for the sixth consecutive quarter in Q4 2025 by $318.3 billion or 1.8%, the FDIC reports. Loans grew by 2% in Q4 and almost 6% YOY. Foreign deposits grew 11%, but subordinated debt and FHLB advances each fell ~ 14% as banks shed excess capital and funding.

U.S. bank loan growth in 2025 was robust, with total loans and leases reaching $13.4 trillion by year-end, a sequential increase in Q4 and a 5.9% annual growth rate, driven by larger institutions. Personal loan balances hit $2.2 trillion, while credit card debt rose 5.5% annually but the utilization rate for credit cards is still less than 20% of the total credit available. Yet behind this placid picture is a growing threat to banks and financial markets. At first glance, this looks like a healthy banking system. But that placid picture masks a fast-growing vulnerability that could become the next major pressure point for banks and financial markets.

The fastest growing bank asset category is loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs), a corner of the financial system that regulators have struggled to monitor and control, up 7% in Q4 vs Q3 and up 35% YOY to $1.4 trillion at year-end 2025. With growing signs of credit stress among nonbank companies, banks will eventually pull back from lending to NDFIs. The problem is timing. By the time banks tighten lending standards, many private companies dependent on this funding may already be heading toward collapse, and those failures will not stay confined to the shadow banking system.

They will hit bank balance sheets directly.

The latest default involving UK mortgage issuer Market Financial Solutions threatens a £930 million shortfall in collateral backing loans to Apollo, TPG, other Wall Street private credit sponsors that are heavily involved with lending to private credit and equity, and various speculative ventures involving the current “AI investment boom.”

“The collapse of MFS, which attracted backing from firms including Barclays Plc, Apollo Global Management Inc.’s Atlas SP Partners unit, Jefferies Financial Group and TPG, is the latest crisis to hit both banks and direct lenders, and puts a spotlight on asset-based financing,” Bloomberg reveals.

“Accusations of double pledging also emerged in the collapses last year of US auto parts supplier First Brands Group and sub-prime auto lender Tricolor Holdings.”

Accusations of double pledging collateral have also surfaced in recent failures such as First Brands Group and Tricolor Holdings, further highlighting the fragility of the system.

The fact that Apollo’s Atlas SP unit was caught unawares by the apparent collateral fraud at MFS is especially notable given the firm’s past experience. One of the leading providers of secured financing to nonbank mortgage companies in the US, Atlas SP was formerly owned by Credit Suisse and has been the advisor on numerous financing transactions for NBFIs. Yet two supposedly “secured” warehouse facilities backed by Atlas SP are now reported to be in default. If the lenders structuring these deals are surprised by collateral problems, investors should be asking deeper questions about how widespread these risks really are.

The collapse of American Car Centers in 2023, another Atlas SP client, provided advanced warning of a wave of corporate insolvencies that now threaten the US banking sector with contagion. U.S. corporate bankruptcies in 2025 surged to their highest level in 15 years, with over 700 companies filing for protection through November, marking a 14% increase over 2024. A large share of those failures involved private equity-backed firms.

Why is the rapid growth in bank lending to NDFIs a problem?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell previously expressed that while non-depository financial institutions play a productive role in the economy, their growth outside the traditional regulatory perimeter poses risks to financial stability. We’re not talking here about mortgage companies with fully secured loans, but instead speculative credit and private equity schemes that are running out of cash.

The growth of private equity and credit is particularly problematic for banks. Many institutions are quietly masking early defaults through loan forbearance. When busted private equity firms cannot pay their debts, many seek to buy time by paying “in kind” with additional equity effectively issuing more of what the market already considers worthless. Paying “principal on original principal” or “POOP” (h/t Victor Hong) is one the thin canards used by private equity sponsors to conceal their financial malfeasance. In short: investors are being paid with more of the same failing capital structure.

In 2024, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns regarding the rapid growth of non-bank financial institutions and the shifting of financial intermediation outside the regulated banking perimeter. He emphasized the need for regulators to be “smart” about where risks are emerging in this sector, noting that non-bank lending could lead to an overall lack of economic stability.  But federal bank regulators have done little to address the explosion of lending to NDFIs. History shows that when a bank asset class grows significantly faster than the broader economy, it is usually a signal that systemic risk is building.

When you see a bank asset class growing far more quickly than the broad economy, this is a red flag that suggests potential systemic risk. But even more troubling that the high rate of growth in bank lending to NDFIs is the huge amount of undrawn loans available to these lightly capitalized companies involved in private equity and credit.

The FDIC does not yet disclose full loan category data on NDFI series, but we can infer from Other Loans line that banks currently have an estimated $2.8 trillion in unused loan commitments to NDFIs or exposure at default of 200% of current advances as defined by Basel III.  A non-bank firm can draw on these contracted credit lines and immediately default, causing a massive loss to the bank lender.  For every dollar of the $1.4 trillion in bank loans outstanding today to NDFIs, there are two dollars in undrawn loans or a total of $2.8 trillion, as shown in the chart below.

In practical terms:

  • Banks have $1.4 trillion in outstanding loans to NDFIs

  • They have another $2.8 trillion in undrawn commitments

That means for every dollar already lent, two more dollars are waiting to be drawn.

And a nonbank borrower can draw on those lines and default immediately, leaving banks with the loss.

Total potential exposure: roughly $4.2 trillion.

If stress spreads across private credit markets, that number becomes very important, very quickly.

Source: FDIC

The massive amount of bank lending to NDFIs is an approaching storm that has been largely ignored by federal regulators but is gaining growing attention from credit analysts. One public benchmark for the growing credit stress facing nonbanks is business development companies, which have seen an 18% decline in stock valuations over the past year vs an equal positive gain for the S&P 500. That divergence is not random. BDC investors are effectively voting with their capital that private credit risk is rising and rising quickly.

“UBS strategists say private credit could see default rates surge as high as 15% if artificial intelligence triggers an “aggressive” disruption among corporate borrowers,” the Swiss bank reports. 

“Direct lenders that financed software companies are exposed to AI’s impact, with some estimates suggesting 40% of all sponsor-backed loans are tied up in the software industry.”

A 15% default rate is 2x the highest level of bank loan delinquency seen in 2008.

Put that number in perspective. A 15% default rate would be roughly twice the highest level of bank loan delinquencies seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

If even a portion of that scenario materializes, private credit markets, and the banks financing them, will feel the impact immediately.

The year 2025 was an extraordinary period for many reasons, including low credit loss rates and soaring asset values. QE teaches us that high asset prices suppress the cost of default, until asset values fall. But Wall Street is still trying to spin the growing delinquency among private companies as being only a problem “on the margins.”

“A review of the 3,649 middle market (MM) corporate credit assessments completed in 2025 shows mixed signals,” notes Kroll Bond Rating Agency.

“Slowing growth is negatively impacting some companies’ credit quality, but overall, our portfolio remains stable. The growing divergence in performance is driven by challenged subsectors that we believe will contribute to the rising, yet contained, default rate in 2026.”

In other words: the cracks are visible, but the market is still hoping the damage remains contained.

In the 1920s, many observers believed that asset values had reached a “permanently high plateau,” That confidence did not age well. This despite warnings from some observers of an impending collapse. Sectors like private equity and credit, and AI, all promise higher credit costs ahead. But for lenders, the immediate implication may be something very different: higher credit costs. When credit costs rise, earnings decline and stocks follow. The sharp declines in bank stocks in January and February illustrate this tendency.

We expect bank stocks to underperform their strong 2025 performance and face several challenges in the coming year:

  • Rising credit costs

  • Elevated market volatility

  • Higher operating expenses

Banks will benefit from falling funding costs, which should provide some support for margins.

But the outsized credit exposure to nonbank financial institutions may become one of the dominant financial narratives of 2026.

If stress spreads through private credit markets, investors may quickly discover that the shadow banking system is not nearly as “separate” from the traditional banking sector as many assume.

*  *  *

Investors who want deeper analysis of bank balance sheets and emerging credit risks can follow Christopher Whalen’s ongoing research and commentary.

Access to the index and detailed bank research is available via Institutional Risk Analyst.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 17:05

Oracle Jumps On Solid Earnings And Guidance Boost Despite Soaring CapEx And Cash Burn

Oracle Jumps On Solid Earnings And Guidance Boost Despite Soaring CapEx And Cash Burn

There was much anxiety ahead of Oracle's Q3 earnings release: yes, revenue growth would be solid but would it come at the expense of even more capex, which has sent the stock price tumbling more than 50% since its record high on Sept 10. In the end, it turned out the company had learned from recent mistakes and projected a goldilocks future: strong revenue and just right capex.

Here is what Oracle reports for Q3:

  • Adjusted EPS $1.79 vs. $1.47 y/y, beating estimate $1.70
  • Adjusted revenue $17.19 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimates of $16.89 billion (Revenue in constant fx +18%, in line with estimate +18.8%)
    • Cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $8.9 billion, +44% y/y, beating estimate $8.84 billion (in constant currency +41%, estimate +41.7%)
    • Cloud Infrastructure revenue (IaaS) $4.9 billion, +81% y/y, beating estimate $4.74 billion (in constant currency +81%, estimate +82.2%)
    • Cloud Application revenue (SaaS) $4.0 billion, +11% y/y, in line with the estimate $4 billion (in constant currency +11%, estimate +11.6%)
    • Software revenue $6.12 billion, +3.3% y/y, beating estimate $5.97 billion
    • Software Support revenue $4.97 billion, +3.6% y/y, beating estimate $4.89 billion
    • Software License revenue $1.15 billion, +1.9% y/y, beating estimate $1.1 billion
    • Hardware revenue $714 million, +1.6% y/y, missing estimate $724.6 million
    • Service revenue $1.44 billion, +12% y/y, beating estimate $1.36 billion

Of note here, sales in the company’s closely watched infrastructure business gained 81% to $4.9 billion in the period ended Feb. 28, the company said Tuesday in a statement. That marked a faster increase than estimate of 79% and compared with a 68% revenue rise in the previous quarter.  Going down the line: 

  • Adjusted operating income $7.38 billion, +19% y/y, estimate $7.21 billion
  • Adjusted operating margin 43% vs. 44% y/y, estimate 42.7%
  • Remaining performance obligations $553 billion vs. $130 billion y/y

And while the above is all good, what wasn't so good is that ORCL's Q2 capex came in at a stunning $18.6 billion, triple the number from a year ago, and 50% higher than the Q1 capex print. To say that the company is incinerating money is doing a disservice to incinerators.

Elsewhere, the company's remaining performance obligation, a measure of bookings, were $553 billion, compared with the $523 billion reported in the prior quarter.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the company's guidance range came above estimates: 

  • Revenues to grow from 18% to 20% in constant currency (grow 19% to 21% in USD): 
  • Adj. EPS to grow between 15% to 17% and be between $1.92 and $1.96, beating estimates of $1.95 (grow between 15% to 17% and be between $1.96 and $2.00 in USD)
  • Cloud revenue to grow between 44% to 48% in constant currency (expected to grow from 46% to 50% in USD)

Adding across, this means that for fiscal 2026, Oracle expects revenue of $67 billion and capital expenditures of $50 billion, which is unchanged from our most recent previous guidance. Incidentally, there is no way in hell ORCL's full year 2026 CapEx is only $50 billion since its LTM capex is already $48.25 billion.

Perhaps most importantly, Oracle also published its fiscal 2027 guidance which is as follows:

  • For fiscal year 2027, Oracle is raising total revenue guidance to $90 billion, beating estimates of $86.7 billion.

There was no mention of what 2027 capex will be, so expect some very pointed questions on the call because alongside massive capex comes just as massive cash burn, which, as shown below... is terrifying. As readers are well aware, the question for the past 6 months has been: just how much debt will ORCL need to fund it? 

Cash burn aside, Oracle's earnings were solid, with the company posting cloud revenue that was better than expected and projected strong sales in the upcoming fiscal year, a sign the company is turning its massive AI bookings into revenue.

Oracle is working to deliver on massive cloud infrastructure contracts with customers like OpenAI and Meta. Known for its namesake database software, the company’s cloud business has found major success by providing chip-filled data centers and other equipment for training and deploying AI models.

The shares increased about 7% in extended trading after closing at $149.40 as the kneejerk reaction to the company's earnings was viewed as favorable. Let's see if this continues into tomorrow's session.

As a reminder, the stock has lost more than 50% of its value from a September peak as Wall Street has grown worried about the costs and logistics associated with the massive build-out.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 16:43

Epstein Guard Googled Him Minutes Before Body Found; Bank Made 'Suspicious Activity Report' Over Cash Deposits

Epstein Guard Googled Him Minutes Before Body Found; Bank Made 'Suspicious Activity Report' Over Cash Deposits

Authored by Jose Nino via HeadlineUSA,

A federal correctional officer assigned to monitor Jeffrey Epstein conducted internet searches about the convicted sex offender just moments before his body was discovered and received thousands of dollars in cash deposits in the weeks preceding his death, newly released Justice Department documents show.

Tova Noel worked as one of two Metropolitan Correctional Center employees who authorities later accused of fabricating logs claiming they had conducted required welfare checks on Epstein throughout the overnight hours before his August 10, 2019 death. Both guards lost their jobs, though prosecutors eventually dismissed criminal charges against them.

According to FBI forensic analysis of Bureau of Prisons computers, Noel entered the search term “latest on Epstein in jail” at 5:42 a.m. and repeated the query ten minutes later at 5:52 a.m. Her fellow officer Michael Thomas located the financier hanging in his cell at 6:30 a.m., less than 40 minutes after her final search.

Prosecutors stated that during the overnight shift, the 37-year-old Noel browsed furniture websites and slept rather than performing the required inmate checks every half hour. Thomas spent time looking at motorcycle listings online.

The New York Post reported that federal investigators produced a 66-page forensic report examining the desktop computers used by both officers. The Epstein related search was the sole query that the FBI chose to highlight in its analysis.

During sworn questioning by Justice Department officials in 2021, Noel disputed the FBI’s findings. “I don’t remember doing that,” she stated in the transcript. She characterized the federal records as not “accurate. I don’t recall looking him up.”

Noel also asserted that the failure to conduct proper monitoring was widespread at the Manhattan detention facility. “I’ve never worked in the Special Housing Unit and actually done rounds every 30 minutes,” she informed investigators.

Separate DOJ files reveal that Chase Bank submitted a “suspicious activity report” to the FBI in November 2019 regarding cash transactions in Noel’s account. The financial institution documented a total of 12 deposits starting in April 2018, with the largest single transaction of $5,000 occurring on July 30, 2019, just 11 days before Epstein died.

Available bank records beginning in December 2018 document seven separate cash deposits amounting to $11,880. Noel began her assignment in the Special Housing Unit where Epstein was held on July 7, 2019, approximately one month before his death.

Records indicate Noel operated a 2019 Land Rover Range Rover valued at $62,000. DOJ interviewers never questioned her about the cash transactions, according to the documents.

An internal FBI briefing contained in the released files indicates the bureau concluded that Noel was most likely the unidentified orange figure visible in grainy security camera footage near Epstein’s cell at approximately 10:40 p.m. on the night before his death.

“At approximately 10:40 pm, a correctional officer, believed to be Tova Noel, carried linen or inmate clothing up to the L-Tier, last time any correctional officer approached the only entrance to the SHU tier,” federal agents documented. Investigators determined that Epstein used strips of orange fabric to hang himself.

In her sworn testimony, Noel, who had been working consecutive shifts that day, stated she last observed Epstein alive “somewhere around after 10” that evening. She maintained that she “never gave out linen, ever” or clothing to inmates, asserting that such distributions occurred during earlier shifts.

The blurred orange shape captured on video has fueled speculation and conspiracy theories since the FBI made the footage public last summer. An inspector general report from 2023 described the figure only as “unidentified correctional officers,” making these newly released FBI documents the first official record to connect a specific name to the image.

Noel stated she could not explain why Epstein possessed additional bedding in his cell. She noted that Thomas, the other officer on duty, was asleep from 10 p.m. until midnight. Facility protocols prohibit staff members from entering the cell area without accompaniment, according to prison employees.

Legal representatives for Noel offered no comment. When investigators directly asked whether she played any role in Epstein’s death, Noel answered “no.”

As the New York Post reported, Noel currently faces a civil lawsuit in Westchester County Supreme Court alleging she committed assault while employed as a medical office assistant at Montefiore Einstein Advanced Care.

José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 16:25

Trump Threatens 'Unprecedented Military Consequences' As Iran Reportedly Starts Mining The Strait Of Hormuz

Trump Threatens 'Unprecedented Military Consequences' As Iran Reportedly Starts Mining The Strait Of Hormuz

Summary:

  • CNN says the IRGC had already begun laying explosive mines in the vital Strait of Hormuz.

  • Reuters: AS MANY AS 150 US TROOPS WOUNDED SO FAR IN IRAN WAR

  • CBS says US intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane

  • Divergent signals flying between Tehran and Washington: Witkoff says Trump "always willing to talk" to Iran, the question is whether or not it is worth it. Trump-Putin spoke Monday, and Putin-Pezeshkian spoke Tuesday. Meanwhile Tehran defiant: no ceasefire, vows maximum pain.

  • Operation 'mostly achieved goals' - Trump says as WSJ reports officials seeking plans for offramp. Biggest airstrikes of the war.

  • Tehran vows ‘eye for an eye’ if US-Israel hit infrastructure. Iran leaders on various levels sounding hawkish and not backing down.

  • Oil/Energy: Iraq has shut down some oil wells, while Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia taking similar steps to curtail production. Qatar too: halted operations at several gas wells and shut down the liquefaction "trains" used to process natural gas for export.

  • Qatar urges halt to attacks, quick return to diplomacy - Foreign Ministry: "Reaching the negotiating table quickly and halting attacks would serve the interests of the peoples of the region as well as international peace and security, in addition to strengthening global economic stability."

  • Pentagon claims "winning": After ten days into Operation Epic Fury, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth lists objectives that include destroying Iran's missile infrastructure, defense industry, navy, and ensuring Tehran is "permanently" denied nuclear weapons.

  • Trump's mixed messaging as war could end 'soon' while saying Iran's military is crippled, but also warns Tehran would be hit "20 times harder" if it disrupts oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Signs of Washington officials looking for an offramp. A mere few days ago Trump stressed the US would stop at nothing short of Iran's "unconditional surrender" - but that continues to look dubious.

  • Iran rejects U.S. narrative: The IRGC says its missile program remains intact and claims it is firing larger salvos with heavier warheads, while officials insist Iran, not Washington, will decide when the war ends.

  • Regional escalation especially in Lebanon: Heavy IDF fighting continues with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Gulf states intercept missiles and drones, and all the while Iranian leaders say US and Israeli regime-change efforts have failed and vow to prepare for a "long war" - even involving those who host American bases in region.

* * *

Update(1555ET): A fresh Tuesday CNN report says that Iran has already begun laying mines in the vital oil transit Strait of Hormuz waterway: 

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.

The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.

The report further says that after IRGC threats have already de facto closed the strait to nearly all international traffic (apparently unless they signal they are Chinese vessels) amid the ongoing drone and missile threat, it maintains the capability to deploy a "gauntlet" of dispersed mine-laying craft, continues CNN, including explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries.

TRUMP RESPONDS to the reports, warns the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.

Trump revised his tweet quickly, adding the following:

"Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait.

They will be dealt with quickly and violently.

BEWARE!"

He also followed with saying that the US already destroyed ten inactive mine laying boats.

CENTCOM meanwhile quickly counter-signals that it stands ready to fight back:

* * *

Update(1458ET): In an afternoon WH press briefing, Karoline Leavitt was pressured by reporters on the scope of the Iran operations, as well as whether Trump will allow the new supreme leader to rule, as well as questions on what Trump meant when days ago he laid out that the US will not stop operations until Iran's "unconditional surrender". She struggled on some of these, but offered little new or substantive. One new and very alarming development, however, also mentioned in the WH briefing room - and not denied by Leavitt - was the following fresh Reuters report:

As many ‌as 150 ‌U.S. ⁠troops ⁠have been wounded so far ​in the war with ​Iran, two people familiar ⁠with ⁠the matter ⁠told Reuters ​on Tuesday.

The figure ​has ⁠not been previously reported ⁠and is far higher than the Pentagon's ⁠publicly disclosed figure of 8 seriously wounded U.S. forces.

And another big afternoon development: CBS'  Jim LaPorta reports that US intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

LaPorta added that Iran is reportedly using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian-made variants.

* * *

Ten days of Operation Epic Fury have passed, and War Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that the United States is "winning" against the "barbarian" Iranians, and that Tehran has been "racing" toward a nuclear bomb.

He listed in a Pentagon press briefing Tuesday morning that war objectives are to destroy missiles and the defense industrial base, to destroy Iran's navy, and to ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon. He stressed that the goal includes to "permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever."

He added: "We will not relent until the enemy is totally and entirely defeated." This comes the day after President Trump said that he believes the war could end soon, even as Iranian officials signal they are preparing for a prolonged conflict.

AFP/Getty Images

"I think the war is very complete, pretty much," Trump told CBS News. "They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force." Hours later in afternoon remarks from Florida, Trump warned that Iran would face massive retaliation if it tried to disrupt global oil flows, saying the United States would strike Tehran "20 times harder" if it attempted to block tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon's Tuesday morning briefing really emphasized steady destruction of Iranian missile sites - even underground ballistic launch bunkers - with heavy bunker busters. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has rejected Washington claims that its missile program has been destroyed, saying it is launching larger volleys of missiles with warheads weighing more than one ton.

Iran has continued retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf allies, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. One person was killed in Manama and two others were killed in central Israel Monday into Tuesday.

While Israel's military has heavily censored potential damage on the ground and the rate of Iran's missile and drone attacks, unverified but widespread online accounts suggest it continues to get hit hard on a nightly basis.

Tehran meanwhile has experienced some of the heaviest bombardment of the war overnight, with at least 40 people reported killed near Risalat Square. Since the start of the war, at least 460 people have been killed and 4,309 wounded in Tehran alone, according to the figures of Mehr Soroush, deputy head of the Tehran Emergency Health Department. The Iranian capital is densely packed with a size and population comparable to New York City.

Across Iran, more than 1,200 people have been killed and over 10,000 injured. Even the newly named Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may have been injured - reportedly before he was declared head of the country, state media has suggested.

Mohammad Jamalian, a member of Iran’s parliamentary health committee, has said nine hospitals are no longer operational due to the ongoing bombardment. Pharmaceutical stockpiles remain sufficient for about six months, he has described according to Al Jazeera, while non-elective surgeries have been suspended to free hospital capacity for emergency cases.

The conflict continues to expand regionally, with the Bahrain military saying it has intercepted and destroyed 105 missiles and 176 drones since Iran began attacks on countries hosting American forces. There remains a big open question on whether Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will send their militaries to formally enter Operation Epic Freedom. Hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham has certainly been calling for it, saying the Gulf should do much more in its own defense.

Israel's northern front also remains active, with Israeli strikes in Lebanon having pushed the death toll there to at least 486 people as Israel and Hezbollah continue exchanging fire.

"Rally round the flag" effect in the wake of Trump's 'shock and awe-style' bombs on Tehran and elsewhere...

Israeli officials are also signaling that the war is far from over, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying in a visit to IDF troops, "Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny; ultimately, it depends on them. But there is no doubt that with the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones – and we are not done yet."

As for the narrative from Tehran, leaders remain defiant - also as there's some degree of evidence of a "rally around the flag" effect, meaning Iranians have been filmed out in the street pledging allegiance to the nation and the new Supreme Leader. Iranian officials are loudly and boldly declaring Washington and Tel Aviv failed in their initial war objectives.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei has proven that regime change efforts have collapsed. "They thought that, in a matter of two or three days, they can go for a regime change, they can go for a rapid, clean victory, but they failed… they failed to achieve their goals at the beginning, and now, after 10 days, I think they are aimless," Foreign Minister Araghchi told PBS News Hour.

Araghchi also rejected claims that Iran is responsible for rising oil prices and disruptions to global shipping, describing that "This is not our plan" and that "The oil production, the transportation of oil has been slowed down or stopped not because of us, because of the attacks and aggression made by Israelis and Americans against us."

Iran says it is still prepared for a "long war" and to fight to the end. On the question of closing Hormuz, the Iranian top diplomat claimed, "We have not closed that strait. We are not preventing them to navigate in that strait. But this is the result of the aggression by Israelis and Americans, which has made the whole region insecure, unstable." Additionally the IRGC has said that Iran, not the United States, will determine when the war ends.

Pressed on Iranian strikes targeting oil facilities in the region, Araghchi insisted Tehran is acting in self-defense. "We are facing an act of aggression, which is absolutely illegal. And what we are doing is the act of self-defense, which is legal and legitimate."

"Well, we have already warned everybody in the region that, if the US attacks us, since we cannot reach the American soil, we have to attack their bases in the region, their facilities, their installations, their assets."

Iran's foreign ministry has also taken the opportunity to fire back at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after she said the Iranian people "deserve freedom, dignity, and the right to decide their own future."

"Please spare the hypocrisy," foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X. "You’ve made a career out of standing on the wrong side of history — green-lighting occupation, genocide, and atrocities, and now laundering U.S./Israeli crime of aggression and war crimes against Iranians."

"Where was your voice when more than 165 innocent IRANIAN little angels were massacred in the city of Minab?" he questioned. "Why don’t you say anything when hospitals, historical sites, oil facilities, diplomatic police headquarter, firefighting stations and residential neighborhoods are wickedly targeted?" He concluded that it's been: "Silence in the face of lawlessness and atrocity is nothing less than complicity."

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 15:55

IEA Delivers No SPR Action After Extraordinary Meeting As Crude Jawboning Mania Enters Day Two

IEA Delivers No SPR Action After Extraordinary Meeting As Crude Jawboning Mania Enters Day Two

Update (1514ET): 

For a second straight day, G-7 leaders attempted to push crude prices lower with headlines about an "emergency meeting" to discuss a possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release aimed at containing Brent and WTI crude prices. However, by late afternoon in New York, the Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) had concluded the meeting without reaching a decision on a coordinated release of crude stockpiles.

Today's slide in Brent and WTI was initially sparked by IEA chief Fatih Birol, who said the G-7 energy ministers and the IEA would hold an "extraordinary meeting" to discuss energy market conditions. Hours later, the group of G-7 leaders reached no decision on an SPR dump.

Why? Because there is no reason, when jawboning markets with headlines crushed WTI prices from $90/bbl to $76/bbl.

However, the most notable headline event in attempts to talk crude prices down was Energy Secretary Chris Wright's now-deleted tweet, which falsely claimed that a U.S. military-escorted tanker had transited the Hormuz chokepoint. Shortly thereafter, headlines hit that Iran was taking steps to mine the Strait of Hormuz, causing WTI to spike from around $76 to nearly $86 per barrel within a short time.

The crude market news flow today was pure circus chaos:

Even with WTI briefly rising to nearly $120/bbl on Monday, G-7 ministers still could not agree on an SPR release plan. At some point, the market may begin treating these emergency meeting headlines as pure bullshit.

 

*   *   * 

With oil reversing much of the overnight losses as we neared the start of US cash open trading, futures slumped and it felt like we were back to square one. 

That's when the jawboning out of the G7 members - many of whom are already at their breaking point in terms of soaring input costs - decided to double down on the jawboning rhetoric from yesterday - and hinted strongly that an SPR release could be imminent. 

The narrative peaked just around 10:20am ET, when the head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said that after the IEA hosted a G7 Energy Ministers Meeting, chaired by Minister Roland Lescure of France, on the current oil & gas market situation, tonight there would be an "extraordinary meeting of IEA Member governments later today to assess market conditions."

Birol also attached the following peak jawboning statement:

In oil markets, conditions have deteriorated in recent days. In addition to the challenges of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a substantial amount of oil production has been curtailed. This is creating significant and growing risks for the market. We discussed all the available options, including making IEA emergency oil stocks available to the market. IEA Member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

Given conditions in oil markets, I have convened an extraordinary meeting of IEA Member governments, which will take place later today to assess the current security of supply and market conditions to inform a subsequent decision on whether to make emergency stocks of IEA countries available to the market.

As well as IEA Members, I am also in close contact about the situation with energy ministers from key energy producers and consumers around the world.

And in a mirror image of a similar verbal intervention from yesterday (see "G-7 Leaders Reject SPR Release Plan, But 'Stand Ready' After Initial Jawbone Efforts Fade"), oil immediately tumbled erasing all gains, and sliding to overnight lows, on expectations that this time the IEA/G7's jawboning will lead to something more than just promises.

And as oil falls, stocks rise...

Which is all as one would expect.

However, as Bloomberg's Ye Xie notes, despite the slump of crude oil prices and the calming of Brent crude spreads this morning, WTI option traders still see risks skewed toward higher prices. Investors are paying the highest premium in years for call options for WTI futures over puts...

That shows investors remain concerned about a prolonged oil and gas disruption as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. As Jordan Rochester at Mizuho noted, the amount of production shut down in the Middle East is set to double over the next week or so, taking daily supply of about 8 million barrels out of the market. That isn’t particularly encouraging news for investors - even as the jawboning from G-7 energy ministers continues.

The bigger problem is what happens if - like yesterday - a few European countries who SPRs are already at dangerously low levels, kill the idea. After all, all an SPR release would do is buy a few weeks of artificially depressed oil prices while further draining global emergency stocks. So while oil is already frontrunning the drop, expect oil to surge should the IEA/G7 disappoint again and fail to move from mere jawboning to action. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 15:14

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Not that anyone will care much in light of the Iran-related news barrage hitting every second, but moments ago the US sold $58BN in 3Y paper in what was a rather ugly auction. Let's take a quick look.

In the week's first coupon auction, the US sold $58BN in 3Y notes, at a high yield of 3.579%, up from 3.518% last month but in line with auctions since last August. The problem is that the auction tailed the When Issued 3.58% by 1.1bps, the first tail since August and the biggest tail since Liberation Day. 

The bid to cover was 2.546, down from 2.624 and the lowest since August. 

The internals were also mediocre at best: Indirects were awarded 59.8% as foreign demand was still there but at a subdued pace: the six auction average if 64.3%. And with Directs taking 20.7%, or on the low end of the recent average of 25.3%, Dealers were left holding a sizable 19.5%, the highest since April. 

Overall, this was a subpar, disappointing auction which however could be attributed to the melt up in stocks. However, if this weakness persists in the week's upcoming coupon auctions, that could be a problem. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:10

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Ugly 3Y Auction Tails Most Since Liberation Day, Bit to Cover Slides

Not that anyone will care much in light of the Iran-related news barrage hitting every second, but moments ago the US sold $58BN in 3Y paper in what was a rather ugly auction. Let's take a quick look.

In the week's first coupon auction, the US sold $58BN in 3Y notes, at a high yield of 3.579%, up from 3.518% last month but in line with auctions since last August. The problem is that the auction tailed the When Issued 3.58% by 1.1bps, the first tail since August and the biggest tail since Liberation Day. 

The bid to cover was 2.546, down from 2.624 and the lowest since August. 

The internals were also mediocre at best: Indirects were awarded 59.8% as foreign demand was still there but at a subdued pace: the six auction average if 64.3%. And with Directs taking 20.7%, or on the low end of the recent average of 25.3%, Dealers were left holding a sizable 19.5%, the highest since April. 

Overall, this was a subpar, disappointing auction which however could be attributed to the melt up in stocks. However, if this weakness persists in the week's upcoming coupon auctions, that could be a problem. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:10

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Authored by Biraajmaan Tamuly via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow down after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as gold prices remain elevated and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that may signal a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets. 

Are ETF flows beginning to rotate?

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, the sharpest drop since the Jan. 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow streak. The latest outflow points to investors taking profits after gold’s massive rally in 2025.

Bitcoin ETF flows moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow shifted to a $273 million inflow on March 6 from a $1.9 billion outflow on Feb. 6

Bitcoin and gold net ETF inflows over the past 30-days. Source: bold.report

The holdings data measured in native units show the divergence more clearly. Bitcoin ETF balances moved to a net increase of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on Feb. 6. Gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces during the same period.

The native units represent the actual underlying asset held by funds rather than the dollar value of those holdings. Tracking BTC or ounces isolates real accumulation or distribution without the distortion created by the price movements.

Head of growth at Horizon, Joe Consorti, summarized the current trend and said,   

“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold's % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”
Gold rallies precede Bitcoin recoveries

In a “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. With respect to past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is potentially near the late stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said, 

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”

However, the rotation may take some time to unfold in the market. 

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC needed roughly 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend outperforming gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. The period marked a consolidation phase before the ratio began trending higher.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near the same consolidation zone seen during the earlier rotation phases in 2022-2023.

Kuiper also added that both assets can benefit from the persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional monetary systems.

The ongoing US-Israel and Iran war has reinforced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, which previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical stress.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years following gold’s recent rally in the past few months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:00

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Bitcoin Vs Gold: ETF Flows Point To Early Capital Rotations Signs

Authored by Biraajmaan Tamuly via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have turned net positive over the past 30 days, while gold ETF demand has started to slow down after nine straight months of inflows. The shift comes even as gold prices remain elevated and sentiment around Bitcoin continues to cool.

With these contrasting trends in ETF flows and the historical pattern of Bitcoin-to-gold performance cycles, analysts are now examining data that may signal a gradual shift in investor demand between the two assets. 

Are ETF flows beginning to rotate?

According to the Kobeissi Letter, the largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Wednesday, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years. The move followed a 4.4% decline in gold prices, the sharpest drop since the Jan. 30 sell-off.

Gold ETFs had attracted $18.7 billion in January and another $5.3 billion in February, marking the strongest two-month start to a year on record and extending a nine-month inflow streak. The latest outflow points to investors taking profits after gold’s massive rally in 2025.

Bitcoin ETF flows moved in the opposite direction over the past month. The 30-day net flow shifted to a $273 million inflow on March 6 from a $1.9 billion outflow on Feb. 6

Bitcoin and gold net ETF inflows over the past 30-days. Source: bold.report

The holdings data measured in native units show the divergence more clearly. Bitcoin ETF balances moved to a net increase of 4,021 BTC on March 6 from −42,275 BTC on Feb. 6. Gold ETF holdings declined from 1.4 million ounces to 621,100 ounces during the same period.

The native units represent the actual underlying asset held by funds rather than the dollar value of those holdings. Tracking BTC or ounces isolates real accumulation or distribution without the distortion created by the price movements.

Head of growth at Horizon, Joe Consorti, summarized the current trend and said,   

“Gold is stalling out while bitcoin is soaring. BTC is set to overtake gold's % growth over the last month as the U.S. economy accelerates and risk sentiment improves. The anticipated risk-off → risk-on rotation could be underway.”
Gold rallies precede Bitcoin recoveries

In a “2026 Look Ahead” report released at the end of December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper noted that gold’s 65% return in 2025 was the fourth-largest annual gain since the end of the gold standard. With respect to past rallies, Kuiper noted that gold is potentially near the late stages of its leadership cycle between the two assets. Kuiper said, 

“Historically, gold and bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if bitcoin takes the lead next.”

However, the rotation may take some time to unfold in the market. 

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC needed roughly 147 days or 21 weeks to establish a sustained trend outperforming gold after Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. The period marked a consolidation phase before the ratio began trending higher.

The BTC-to-gold ratio currently trades near the same consolidation zone seen during the earlier rotation phases in 2022-2023.

Kuiper also added that both assets can benefit from the persistent fiscal deficits, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty as investors seek neutral stores of value outside traditional monetary systems.

The ongoing US-Israel and Iran war has reinforced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, which previously supported gold rallies during periods of geopolitical stress.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to outperform gold over the next two to three years following gold’s recent rally in the past few months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 14:00

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

Just days after we covered the story on Quantum Leap Energy’s non-binding MOU with a major U.S. nuclear utility, Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reiterated his buy rating on the beaten down ASP Isotopes, with an $11 price target citing “material progress” toward commercial uranium enrichment on two continents.

On February 23, QLE inked a Pre-Implementation Services Contract with South Africa’s Necsa to site, design, build, and operate an enrichment facility at the Pelindaba complex. The deal gives QLE access to existing nuclear infrastructure, utilities, and a joint oversight committee. Gianarikas says it’s the clearest signal yet that licensed HALEU production in South Africa is moving from lab to market readiness.

The March 6 MOU we highlighted last week adds the U.S. piece: the unnamed utility will potentially help stand up domestic HALEU and LEU+ enrichment, conversion, and deconversion capacity while discussing offtake and financing. That’s critical ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban we’ve repeatedly flagged as the biggest catalyst for non-adversarial supply chains.

The report also spotlights accelerating LEU+ adoption by conventional fleets. Westinghouse loaded the first ~6% LEU+ test assemblies at Southern Company’s Vogtle Unit 2 last April. Urenco secured NRC approval to enrich to 10% and produced its first commercial batch in December. Framatome is upgrading its Richland plant and just filed for an 8% enrichment limit. Partners include Constellation (23% of U.S. nuclear output), Duke, Entergy, and Vistra.

As we first detailed after the Silicon-28 mega-contract and US radiopharmacy buy, then again when Trump Jr. and Eric Trump-backed funds poured in and when Renergen cleared regulatory hurdles, Canaccord is framing ASPI is one of the few names positioned across HALEU, medical isotopes, and quantum materials: a veritable cornucopia of next gen energy buzzwords. The South Africa and U.S. milestones now de-risk the commercial ramp in exactly the way we’ve been tracking.

Canaccord flags the usual risks including regulatory approvals, South African political noise, and balance-sheet needs, but ASPI is attempting to fill the HALEU gap that TerraPower, Oklo, and the entire advanced-reactor wave need. With the 2028 ban looming and AI data centers screaming for carbon-free baseload, the window for first-mover domestic enrichment is closing fast.

ASPI stock has been beaten down in recent months, although as its story continues to spread, expect more sellside coverage. As of today, just three banks (Canaccord, Cantor, and Lucid) cover the stock with a $13 average price target.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:40

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

ASP Isotopes Jump On "Material Progress Toward Commercial Uranium Enrichment"

Just days after we covered the story on Quantum Leap Energy’s non-binding MOU with a major U.S. nuclear utility, Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reiterated his buy rating on the beaten down ASP Isotopes, with an $11 price target citing “material progress” toward commercial uranium enrichment on two continents.

On February 23, QLE inked a Pre-Implementation Services Contract with South Africa’s Necsa to site, design, build, and operate an enrichment facility at the Pelindaba complex. The deal gives QLE access to existing nuclear infrastructure, utilities, and a joint oversight committee. Gianarikas says it’s the clearest signal yet that licensed HALEU production in South Africa is moving from lab to market readiness.

The March 6 MOU we highlighted last week adds the U.S. piece: the unnamed utility will potentially help stand up domestic HALEU and LEU+ enrichment, conversion, and deconversion capacity while discussing offtake and financing. That’s critical ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban we’ve repeatedly flagged as the biggest catalyst for non-adversarial supply chains.

The report also spotlights accelerating LEU+ adoption by conventional fleets. Westinghouse loaded the first ~6% LEU+ test assemblies at Southern Company’s Vogtle Unit 2 last April. Urenco secured NRC approval to enrich to 10% and produced its first commercial batch in December. Framatome is upgrading its Richland plant and just filed for an 8% enrichment limit. Partners include Constellation (23% of U.S. nuclear output), Duke, Entergy, and Vistra.

As we first detailed after the Silicon-28 mega-contract and US radiopharmacy buy, then again when Trump Jr. and Eric Trump-backed funds poured in and when Renergen cleared regulatory hurdles, Canaccord is framing ASPI is one of the few names positioned across HALEU, medical isotopes, and quantum materials: a veritable cornucopia of next gen energy buzzwords. The South Africa and U.S. milestones now de-risk the commercial ramp in exactly the way we’ve been tracking.

Canaccord flags the usual risks including regulatory approvals, South African political noise, and balance-sheet needs, but ASPI is attempting to fill the HALEU gap that TerraPower, Oklo, and the entire advanced-reactor wave need. With the 2028 ban looming and AI data centers screaming for carbon-free baseload, the window for first-mover domestic enrichment is closing fast.

ASPI stock has been beaten down in recent months, although as its story continues to spread, expect more sellside coverage. As of today, just three banks (Canaccord, Cantor, and Lucid) cover the stock with a $13 average price target.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:40

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

Weeks after New Mexico officials launched an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein's Zorro Ranch in New Mexico - which has since been purchased to turn into a Christian retreat, the FBI and local law enforcement descended on the 7,500 acre property in search of dark secrets, including the possible graves of trafficked girls who may have been strangled to death during violent sex sessions on the property. 

For years the rumors have swirled around the isolated estate near the tiny town of Stanley (about 30 miles south of Santa Fe), however the identities of the alleged victims - and whether their bodies are on the property - has remained a mystery. 

The search - conducted on Monday and into Tuesday, is part of a planned state “truth commission” established by New Mexico lawmakers last month to investigate allegations surrounding Epstein’s activities at the ranch because the feds have dropped the ball. 

The operation began just a day after hundreds of protesters gathered outside the ranch on International Women’s Day to show support for victims of sexual abuse, the Daily Mail reports.

Danny Wilson, the brother of Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre, spoke at the protest held outside Zorro Ranch on Sunday, International Women's Day

“We have heard years of allegations and rumors about Epstein’s activities in New Mexico, but unfortunately, federal investigations have failed to put together an official record,” said New Mexico state Rep. Andrea Romero, who pushed to create the commission.

“With this truth commission, we can finally fill in the gaps by investigating the failures that led to the horrific allegations of abuse and crime at Zorro Ranch, so we can learn from them and prevent such atrocities from taking place in our state going forward,” Romero said.

One Epstein Files email references a woman who claimed Epstein offered her money to 'birth babies for black market use.'

Via @blueapples

In another Epstein file, a former staff member at Zorro allegedly claimed that "somewhere in the hills outside Zorro, two foreign girls were buried on orders of Jeffrey and Madam G" - referring to Ghislaine Maxwell. 

According to the Daily Mail, witnesses have begun claiming that Epstein may have also used the secluded ranch for disturbing medical procedures tied to his reported interest in eugenics.

“We have people coming forward saying they were drugged, had sex organs and sperm harvested from their bodies, and woke up around medical equipment not knowing where they were or what happened to them,” Romero told the Daily Mail.

New Mexico state Representative Andrea Romero is one of several lawmakers now calling for a sweeping investigation into what really happened at Zorro Ranch, following a recent influx of tips 

In addition to the allegedly strangled women, one of the most disturbing threads surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico estate involves allegations that the ranch may have been tied to his unusual fascination with human experimentation - particularly eugenics and genetic engineering, ideas he reportedly discussed with scientists and wealthy associates. According to accounts cited by various outlets, Epstein spoke openly about a plan to use the remote property as a kind of “baby ranch,” where women would be impregnated with his sperm in order to create a genetically “superior” bloodline.

Investigators and journalists say Epstein had a long-standing interest in transhumanism and eugenics - the controversial belief that the human race can be improved through selective breeding - and he surrounded himself with scientists and academics for frequent discussions. 

In another document from the Epstein dump, a victim writes a coded diary where she describes being a 'human incubator' who was forced to give birth to a child that was taken from her.

Eft a 02731361 by Zerohedge Janitor

Romero acknowledged that the allegations sound unusual but said investigators must examine the claims.

“It’s so dark and perplexing, and I know that if you mention this to someone, it sounds very conspiratorial,” Romero said. “But we need to get down to the truth of what really happened here in our own backyard.”

The property was bought by Epstein in 1993 from former New Mexico governor Bruce King. It spans roughly 13 square miles of high desert and includes a massive luxury hacienda, guest lodges, staff dwellings, horse stables, a private airstrip, hangar and helipad. Epstein owned the ranch until his death (or escape) in (from) a New York federal jail cell in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges. After his death (or escape), the ranch was listed for sale for $27.5 million in 2021 before the price was reduced to $18 million. The property was eventually sold in 2023 to a limited liability corporation that renamed it San Rafael Ranch.

New Mexico DOJ spokesman Lauren Rodriguez said the current owners - the family of Texas real-estate developer Don Huffines - granted investigators access to search the property and nearby public land.

Epstein’s ranch has long been alleged to have served as one of several locations where the financier trafficked and abused young women, alongside properties in New York, Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Civil filings have claimed that prominent guests visited the compound, including Britain’s (former) Prince Andrew, who was accused by Epstein accuser Virginia Giuffre of being one of the men she was trafficked to. Andrew has denied wrongdoing. There have also been unverified claims by contractors and journalists that former President Bill Clinton and other prominent figures spent time at the ranch, although Clinton denied being there during a deposition before Congress.

Accuser Maria Farmer has said she and her younger sister Annie were brought to Zorro Ranch in 1996 under the pretense of working on an art project. Maria has alleged that she was sexually assaulted by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted in 2021 of child sex trafficking and is currently serving a 20-year federal prison sentence. Annie Farmer has said she was 15 when she was flown to the ranch and directed by Epstein and Maxwell “to take off all her clothes and get on a massage table.”

Since plans for the Truth Commission were announced, Romero said lawmakers have received between 25 and 30 tips from people claiming to have information about activities at the ranch.

“We have this massive international story in New Mexico and all these potential conspiracies, horrible things that have happened there,” she said. “We don't know what's fact from fiction, but owe it to the people of our state to sort through these threads of information and get answers.”

Republican state Rep. Andrea Reeb, a former prosecutor who plans to sit on the commission, said the state has not done enough to examine what happened at the ranch.

“Zorro Ranch has given New Mexico a black eye. We as a state haven't been aggressive enough on figuring out what happened there,” Reeb said.

“My main interest is to see if we can bring justice to some of the victims.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:20

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

House Of Horrors: Cops Search Epstein's Zorro Ranch For Strangled Girls, 'Human Experimentation'

Weeks after New Mexico officials launched an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein's Zorro Ranch in New Mexico - which has since been purchased to turn into a Christian retreat, the FBI and local law enforcement descended on the 7,500 acre property in search of dark secrets, including the possible graves of trafficked girls who may have been strangled to death during violent sex sessions on the property. 

For years the rumors have swirled around the isolated estate near the tiny town of Stanley (about 30 miles south of Santa Fe), however the identities of the alleged victims - and whether their bodies are on the property - has remained a mystery. 

The search - conducted on Monday and into Tuesday, is part of a planned state “truth commission” established by New Mexico lawmakers last month to investigate allegations surrounding Epstein’s activities at the ranch because the feds have dropped the ball. 

The operation began just a day after hundreds of protesters gathered outside the ranch on International Women’s Day to show support for victims of sexual abuse, the Daily Mail reports.

Danny Wilson, the brother of Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre, spoke at the protest held outside Zorro Ranch on Sunday, International Women's Day

“We have heard years of allegations and rumors about Epstein’s activities in New Mexico, but unfortunately, federal investigations have failed to put together an official record,” said New Mexico state Rep. Andrea Romero, who pushed to create the commission.

“With this truth commission, we can finally fill in the gaps by investigating the failures that led to the horrific allegations of abuse and crime at Zorro Ranch, so we can learn from them and prevent such atrocities from taking place in our state going forward,” Romero said.

One Epstein Files email references a woman who claimed Epstein offered her money to 'birth babies for black market use.'

Via @blueapples

In another Epstein file, a former staff member at Zorro allegedly claimed that "somewhere in the hills outside Zorro, two foreign girls were buried on orders of Jeffrey and Madam G" - referring to Ghislaine Maxwell. 

According to the Daily Mail, witnesses have begun claiming that Epstein may have also used the secluded ranch for disturbing medical procedures tied to his reported interest in eugenics.

“We have people coming forward saying they were drugged, had sex organs and sperm harvested from their bodies, and woke up around medical equipment not knowing where they were or what happened to them,” Romero told the Daily Mail.

New Mexico state Representative Andrea Romero is one of several lawmakers now calling for a sweeping investigation into what really happened at Zorro Ranch, following a recent influx of tips 

In addition to the allegedly strangled women, one of the most disturbing threads surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s New Mexico estate involves allegations that the ranch may have been tied to his unusual fascination with human experimentation - particularly eugenics and genetic engineering, ideas he reportedly discussed with scientists and wealthy associates. According to accounts cited by various outlets, Epstein spoke openly about a plan to use the remote property as a kind of “baby ranch,” where women would be impregnated with his sperm in order to create a genetically “superior” bloodline.

Investigators and journalists say Epstein had a long-standing interest in transhumanism and eugenics - the controversial belief that the human race can be improved through selective breeding - and he surrounded himself with scientists and academics for frequent discussions. 

In another document from the Epstein dump, a victim writes a coded diary where she describes being a 'human incubator' who was forced to give birth to a child that was taken from her.

Eft a 02731361 by Zerohedge Janitor

Romero acknowledged that the allegations sound unusual but said investigators must examine the claims.

“It’s so dark and perplexing, and I know that if you mention this to someone, it sounds very conspiratorial,” Romero said. “But we need to get down to the truth of what really happened here in our own backyard.”

The property was bought by Epstein in 1993 from former New Mexico governor Bruce King. It spans roughly 13 square miles of high desert and includes a massive luxury hacienda, guest lodges, staff dwellings, horse stables, a private airstrip, hangar and helipad. Epstein owned the ranch until his death (or escape) in (from) a New York federal jail cell in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges. After his death (or escape), the ranch was listed for sale for $27.5 million in 2021 before the price was reduced to $18 million. The property was eventually sold in 2023 to a limited liability corporation that renamed it San Rafael Ranch.

New Mexico DOJ spokesman Lauren Rodriguez said the current owners - the family of Texas real-estate developer Don Huffines - granted investigators access to search the property and nearby public land.

Epstein’s ranch has long been alleged to have served as one of several locations where the financier trafficked and abused young women, alongside properties in New York, Florida and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Civil filings have claimed that prominent guests visited the compound, including Britain’s (former) Prince Andrew, who was accused by Epstein accuser Virginia Giuffre of being one of the men she was trafficked to. Andrew has denied wrongdoing. There have also been unverified claims by contractors and journalists that former President Bill Clinton and other prominent figures spent time at the ranch, although Clinton denied being there during a deposition before Congress.

Accuser Maria Farmer has said she and her younger sister Annie were brought to Zorro Ranch in 1996 under the pretense of working on an art project. Maria has alleged that she was sexually assaulted by Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, who was convicted in 2021 of child sex trafficking and is currently serving a 20-year federal prison sentence. Annie Farmer has said she was 15 when she was flown to the ranch and directed by Epstein and Maxwell “to take off all her clothes and get on a massage table.”

Since plans for the Truth Commission were announced, Romero said lawmakers have received between 25 and 30 tips from people claiming to have information about activities at the ranch.

“We have this massive international story in New Mexico and all these potential conspiracies, horrible things that have happened there,” she said. “We don't know what's fact from fiction, but owe it to the people of our state to sort through these threads of information and get answers.”

Republican state Rep. Andrea Reeb, a former prosecutor who plans to sit on the commission, said the state has not done enough to examine what happened at the ranch.

“Zorro Ranch has given New Mexico a black eye. We as a state haven't been aggressive enough on figuring out what happened there,” Reeb said.

“My main interest is to see if we can bring justice to some of the victims.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:20

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

Building on Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg’s warning last week that surging jet fuel prices pose an "existential threat" to airlines, analysts at UBS offered their own take on the unfolding energy shock set to unleash turbulence across the industry, noting that U.S. airlines are "nearly 100% unhedged" against jet fuel costs above $4 per gallon.

"US airlines are nearly 100% unhedged, with only DAL's refinery providing it a partial hedge against jet crack spreads. As such, the earnings degradation at $4+ fuel is likely to be significant and widespread," analyst Atul Maheswari wrote in a note on Monday.

Maheswari said Delta, United, and Southwest could still deliver a "meager profit" with Jet A fuel prices over $4, but "none of the other airlines will make money if fuel remains at these levels, with some airlines likely to be deep in the red."

The hit to airlines' first-quarter results will be noticeable but somewhat muted because the energy shock is coming late in the quarter, and airlines typically carry two weeks of inventory.

Maheswari said the real deterioration will come in the second quarter:

We note the impact on 1Q, while material, is cushioned by the fact the fuel spike happened late in 1Q and that airlines tend to carry 2 weeks of inventory. The impact on 2Q, though, could be significant. We continue to believe that DAL, UAL, and LUV are relatively better positioned to navigate higher fuel. AAL and several smaller airlines are more vulnerable.

Based on our math, fuel sustaining at these levels through 2Q could push DAL's 2Q EPS to $1.13, down 55% versus our current $2.49 estimate. For LUV, our 2Q EPS would go to $0.57 vs. $1.81 currently. UAL's 2Q EPS has potential to move lower to $0.96, down 80% vs. our $4.78 estimate. AAL would turn to a 2Q loss of -$0.31 vs. our current forecast of +$1.39. ALK would have a modest 2Q loss, while JBLU, ALGT, and ULCC are likely to generate a significant 2Q loss.

We assumed current fuel price (Gulf Coast $3.82/gallon) and added an incremental spread for distribution and other items based on the average historical spread reported by each for 2025. We also assumed 200 bps higher RASM relative to our published current estimate for 2Q in our analysis.

In an unlikely scenario where jet fuel stays at these levels in 2H'26 as well, it would imply about $3 in FY'26 EPS for DAL (vs. UBSe $7.17). LUV's EPS could be about $1.60 (vs. UBSe $5.05), and UAL's $2.35 (vs. UBSe $13.56). This is after assuming 200 bps higher RASM relative to our current estimates. AAL, ALK, and other smaller airlines would witness losses for FY'26 in this scenario. Full details on the impact for each airline by quarter are in figure 1.

The result of the energy shock will be "earnings degradation" that will force airlines to "quickly move to cut capacity," the analyst said. This warning echoes DB's Linenberg warning last Friday that the "financially weakest carriers could halt operations." Read the note here.

UBS Chartbook on airlines:

EPS drag from higher fuel - US Airlines

Gulf Coast Fuel Prices

FY'25 Fuel as a Percentage of Sales - by Airlines

Feb-April of 2022 - Airline stock analysis during the fuel hike of 2022

The S&P 500 Airlines Index has erased much of the November-to-February gains.

This is incredibly bad news for U.S. travelers, as capacity cuts by the weakest airlines will only lead to higher ticket prices.

Professional subscribers can read the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:00

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

First Deutsche Bank, Now UBS Warns U.S. Airlines "Nearly 100% Unhedged" Against Energy Shock

Building on Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg’s warning last week that surging jet fuel prices pose an "existential threat" to airlines, analysts at UBS offered their own take on the unfolding energy shock set to unleash turbulence across the industry, noting that U.S. airlines are "nearly 100% unhedged" against jet fuel costs above $4 per gallon.

"US airlines are nearly 100% unhedged, with only DAL's refinery providing it a partial hedge against jet crack spreads. As such, the earnings degradation at $4+ fuel is likely to be significant and widespread," analyst Atul Maheswari wrote in a note on Monday.

Maheswari said Delta, United, and Southwest could still deliver a "meager profit" with Jet A fuel prices over $4, but "none of the other airlines will make money if fuel remains at these levels, with some airlines likely to be deep in the red."

The hit to airlines' first-quarter results will be noticeable but somewhat muted because the energy shock is coming late in the quarter, and airlines typically carry two weeks of inventory.

Maheswari said the real deterioration will come in the second quarter:

We note the impact on 1Q, while material, is cushioned by the fact the fuel spike happened late in 1Q and that airlines tend to carry 2 weeks of inventory. The impact on 2Q, though, could be significant. We continue to believe that DAL, UAL, and LUV are relatively better positioned to navigate higher fuel. AAL and several smaller airlines are more vulnerable.

Based on our math, fuel sustaining at these levels through 2Q could push DAL's 2Q EPS to $1.13, down 55% versus our current $2.49 estimate. For LUV, our 2Q EPS would go to $0.57 vs. $1.81 currently. UAL's 2Q EPS has potential to move lower to $0.96, down 80% vs. our $4.78 estimate. AAL would turn to a 2Q loss of -$0.31 vs. our current forecast of +$1.39. ALK would have a modest 2Q loss, while JBLU, ALGT, and ULCC are likely to generate a significant 2Q loss.

We assumed current fuel price (Gulf Coast $3.82/gallon) and added an incremental spread for distribution and other items based on the average historical spread reported by each for 2025. We also assumed 200 bps higher RASM relative to our published current estimate for 2Q in our analysis.

In an unlikely scenario where jet fuel stays at these levels in 2H'26 as well, it would imply about $3 in FY'26 EPS for DAL (vs. UBSe $7.17). LUV's EPS could be about $1.60 (vs. UBSe $5.05), and UAL's $2.35 (vs. UBSe $13.56). This is after assuming 200 bps higher RASM relative to our current estimates. AAL, ALK, and other smaller airlines would witness losses for FY'26 in this scenario. Full details on the impact for each airline by quarter are in figure 1.

The result of the energy shock will be "earnings degradation" that will force airlines to "quickly move to cut capacity," the analyst said. This warning echoes DB's Linenberg warning last Friday that the "financially weakest carriers could halt operations." Read the note here.

UBS Chartbook on airlines:

EPS drag from higher fuel - US Airlines

Gulf Coast Fuel Prices

FY'25 Fuel as a Percentage of Sales - by Airlines

Feb-April of 2022 - Airline stock analysis during the fuel hike of 2022

The S&P 500 Airlines Index has erased much of the November-to-February gains.

This is incredibly bad news for U.S. travelers, as capacity cuts by the weakest airlines will only lead to higher ticket prices.

Professional subscribers can read the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 12:00

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

Police responded at 5:29 a.m. Tuesday to reports that someone fired shots at the American Consulate at University Avenue and Queen Street West in the heart of Toronto, in an incident that comes as Western security agencies confront growing fears that the Iran war is triggering retaliatory violence far beyond the Middle East.

In a public statement posted by Toronto Police Operations, police said they had located evidence of a firearm discharge, that no injuries were reported, and that officers remained on scene investigating. CityNews reported damage to a consulate door and about 10 shell casings outside the building.

On Monday, ABC News reported that a federal alert sent to law enforcement agencies said the United States had intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country. According to ABC, the alert cited “preliminary signals analysis” of a transmission “likely of Iranian origin” relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strike. ABC further reported that the encoded transmission appeared intended for “clandestine recipients” holding the proper encryption key, potentially to convey instructions to “covert operatives or sleeper assets” without using internet or cellular networks.

That warning aligns with a Department of Homeland Security threat assessment reviewed by Reuters, which said Iran and its proxies “probably” pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, even though a large-scale physical attack is considered unlikely.

In Toronto, the consulate incident follows a string of shootings that has deepened fears of ideologically driven or conflict-linked violence.

The city has seen multiple Jewish institutions struck by gunfire in recent days, alongside a separate shooting at a boxing gym reportedly tied to an Iranian-Canadian critic of Tehran. Authorities have not publicly connected those incidents to the consulate shooting, but the pattern has heightened concern across the city.

Reflecting that alarm, Canadian newspaper columnist Brian Lilley wrote on X: “This is in the heart of Toronto. I know people who work in that [Consulate] building. Many of them are non-partisan civil servants who may not agree with this war. Political violence in Toronto has been normalized.”

The pattern is not confined to Canada. In Oslo, Reuters reported that a loud explosion struck the U.S. embassy early Sunday, causing minor damage but no injuries, in what Norwegian police said may have been a deliberate attack linked to the crisis in the Middle East. Reuters quoted Oslo police saying one hypothesis was terrorism, while other possibilities were also being explored. Investigators said they were searching for one or several perpetrators.

*   *   * 

Reminding readers that Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains cells across multiple emerging market countries and could begin activating them.

"What I am looking for next is that they have meaningful cells in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America, West Africa, and elsewhere. They could hit an embassy, they could hit a consulate, or they could hit a cultural center in any one of the twelve countries they have already attacked," Cohen explained. 

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:40

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Shots Fired At U.S. Consulate In Toronto As Iran War Fuels Terror Fears

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

Police responded at 5:29 a.m. Tuesday to reports that someone fired shots at the American Consulate at University Avenue and Queen Street West in the heart of Toronto, in an incident that comes as Western security agencies confront growing fears that the Iran war is triggering retaliatory violence far beyond the Middle East.

In a public statement posted by Toronto Police Operations, police said they had located evidence of a firearm discharge, that no injuries were reported, and that officers remained on scene investigating. CityNews reported damage to a consulate door and about 10 shell casings outside the building.

On Monday, ABC News reported that a federal alert sent to law enforcement agencies said the United States had intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country. According to ABC, the alert cited “preliminary signals analysis” of a transmission “likely of Iranian origin” relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strike. ABC further reported that the encoded transmission appeared intended for “clandestine recipients” holding the proper encryption key, potentially to convey instructions to “covert operatives or sleeper assets” without using internet or cellular networks.

That warning aligns with a Department of Homeland Security threat assessment reviewed by Reuters, which said Iran and its proxies “probably” pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, even though a large-scale physical attack is considered unlikely.

In Toronto, the consulate incident follows a string of shootings that has deepened fears of ideologically driven or conflict-linked violence.

The city has seen multiple Jewish institutions struck by gunfire in recent days, alongside a separate shooting at a boxing gym reportedly tied to an Iranian-Canadian critic of Tehran. Authorities have not publicly connected those incidents to the consulate shooting, but the pattern has heightened concern across the city.

Reflecting that alarm, Canadian newspaper columnist Brian Lilley wrote on X: “This is in the heart of Toronto. I know people who work in that [Consulate] building. Many of them are non-partisan civil servants who may not agree with this war. Political violence in Toronto has been normalized.”

The pattern is not confined to Canada. In Oslo, Reuters reported that a loud explosion struck the U.S. embassy early Sunday, causing minor damage but no injuries, in what Norwegian police said may have been a deliberate attack linked to the crisis in the Middle East. Reuters quoted Oslo police saying one hypothesis was terrorism, while other possibilities were also being explored. Investigators said they were searching for one or several perpetrators.

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Reminding readers that Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains cells across multiple emerging market countries and could begin activating them.

"What I am looking for next is that they have meaningful cells in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America, West Africa, and elsewhere. They could hit an embassy, they could hit a consulate, or they could hit a cultural center in any one of the twelve countries they have already attacked," Cohen explained. 

Read the report here. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/10/2026 - 11:40

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