Shell In Talks To Acquire BP In Blockbuster $80 Billion Deal

It appears that after we spent years pounding the table on the sector, someone else also figured out that energy stocks are trading at single digit PEs.

The WSJ reports that European energy giant Shell is in early stage talks to acquire the other European energy giant, BP, in what would be the largest oil deal in a generation, and one of the largest merger deals of all time.

The Journal writes that while talks between company reps are active, BP is considering the approach carefully as the resulting company would be one of the biggest energy companies in the world; acquiring BP would put Shell on firmer footing to challenge larger competitors such as ZeroHedge favorite Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and would be a landmark combination of two so-called supermajor oil companies.

A Shell spokesman told the WSJ that “we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”

While potential terms of any deal couldn’t be learned and a tie-up is far from certain, BP is currently valued at around $80 billion, and when taking into account the usual acquisition premium, a deal could end up as the largest corporate oil deal since the $83 billion megamerger that created Exxon Mobil at the turn of the century. It would also easily be the biggest M&A deal of the year, and one of the largest deals of the century, in a market that has been rattled by President Trump’s trade war and other geopolitical tensions.

Shell is coming into the acquisition talks from a position of strength, with its stock sharply outperforming BP in recent years. Shell, which like BP is based in the U.K. but has operations around the world, has a market value of more than $200 billion. Meanhwhile, BP has been the laggard among major oil companies and a poster child for getting woke and (almost) going broke, after an ill-fated push away from fossil fuels into renewable energy, to signal just how virtuous the company is sent the stock into a tailspin. It has also suffered years of management upheaval and operational disasters.

Activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which owns more than 5% of BP’s shares, has pushed for changes at the energy company since at least February, underscoring the oil and gas producer’s exposure to a potential takeover bid from a rival. BP has since adopted several measures to try to address investor frustrations. It announced plans earlier this year to boost oil and gas production and sharply cut investments in clean energy. 

While BP has struggled, Shell has focused on its most profitable operations, pledging to pump more oil and gas and rolling back green energy targets.  When asked publicly, Shell CEO Wael Sawan has said recently that the company’s bar for big dealmaking would be high. Shell in May announced a multibillion-dollar share buyback plan, the latest in a long series of big share repurchases. Shell has been working with bankers on a potential sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the U.S., The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

For Shell, acquiring BP would take years of integration, complicated by culture clashes and possibly the sale of overlapping assets. But a deal could give Shell’s global trading business greater reach and bolster its dominance in areas like liquefied natural gas. Analysts and investors also see a good matchup in the companies’ Gulf of Mexico operations.

Acquiring BP would also offer an opportunity for Shell to spread costs over a larger operating base and would box out rivals. Shell would also be more politically palatable to U.K. regulators who may oppose a foreign buyer from acquiring BP, a more than century-old company that traces its roots to oil exploration in Persia during the height of the British Empire.

While huge, a Shell-BP deal would be only the latest in a wave of M&A activity across the energy landscape as the producers look to achieve greater economies of scale. Chevron is still working to close its $53 billion megadeal for Hess, which has been held up due Exxon’s effort to challenge the deal’s legality.

Meanwhile, Exxon is already boosting its operational efficiency after closing a $60 billion deal to buy US shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources. Diamondback Energy sealed a $26 billion deal for Endeavor Energy Resources to bolster its position in the Permian Basin.

In response to the news, BP stock spiked 10%, erasing all losses since Liberation Day...

... while the rest of the energy sector is also trading higher.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 12:01

UBS Upgrades Uranium Prices On "Repowering The US" Theme Gaining Steam 

For the third consecutive day, extreme heat across the eastern half of the U.S. has triggered power grid alerts and emergency warnings, highlighting the fragility of current energy infrastructure. Extremely tight power grids reinforce a core part of our energy thesis: the urgent need for clean, reliable baseload power, and there is no better option than nuclear. 

The current environment strengthens our conviction as long-term 'atomic bulls', a stance we've maintained since our original call in December 2020 (read here). Nuclear energy remains the only scalable, carbon-free solution capable of delivering 24/7 generation for powering up America in the 2030s (more here).

On Wednesday, a team of UBS analysts, led by Dim Ariyasinghe, upgraded their near-term uranium price forecast by ~10% (to $72/lb for 2025) due to improved policy sentiment, bipartisan support, and tighter supply from global disruptions.

The analysts recently hosted a call with the Atlantic Council, noting that U.S. nuclear capacity could grow from approximately 100 GW to 400 GW by 2050—surpassing the Biden administration's current targets. News earlier this week of New York's plan to develop a 1GW plant provided additional tailwinds for the industry.

"We upgrade our near-term U prices ~10% on an improved US policy backdrop, which has buoyed broader market sentiment," Ariyasinghe penned in a note to clients. 

UBS maintains a long-term price forecast of $77/lb (real 2025) and $81/lb nominal from 2030.

Uranium spot prices...

Ariyasinghe's stock views within the industry:

• Paladin Energy (PDN): Maintains a BUY rating with price target lifted 3% to A$9.40/share. Restart at the Langer Heinrich mine is ahead of schedule; FY26 production revised slightly down to 4.5Mlb due to blending lower-grade ore, but this is offset by higher prices and improved costs.

• Boss Energy (BOE): Downgraded to SELL despite production success at Honeymoon mine and a 6% price target increase to A$3.50/share. UBS views the stock as overvalued after an 81% YTD rally and cites risks in long-term growth clarity, wellfield geology, and expansion capex.

Separately, long-time readers will recognize familiar ZeroHedge favorites like Cameco (CCJ) and Oklo, both of which continue to log fresh record highs week after week. We've consistently laid out the investment framework over the years—and most recently provided additional, comprehensive guides (read here & here) on how to profit as an 'atomic bull' in this unfolding nuclear era. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 11:45

A Friendly Plane Wave

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

A Friendly Plane Wave

Despite some perilous first hours, the armistice between Israel and Iran seems to hold so far. In the initial hours after the ceasefire came into effect, Israel accused Iran of launching several missiles. The country launched a strike at a radar station, and vowed to respond more forcefully.

Israeli military aircraft were en route to Iran when a clearly annoyed President Trump called on both sides to stop fighting. In a social media post, he warned Israel to not drop any more bombs. The planes would just do “a friendly Plane Wave” and head home. Trump managed to de-escalate the situation for the time being, but the truce remains fragile.

Complicating matters further, the US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites reportedly did not destroy any of the core facilities. A preliminary US intelligence brief concludes that the bombing only delayed the Iranian nuclear programme by a few months. Iranian officials have meanwhile stated that their work on the programme continues. If that is true, how long will Israel and/or the US let them keep going before they strike again?

For now, though, the Trump administration is denying these media reports. The president and his advisers have called the reports based on leaked documents completely ridiculous, adding that “there is no doubt that [the facilities] were OBLITERATED.”

So, markets will remain at the whims of the parties to the conflict, and to the fragile ceasefire. But any upside risk to energy prices may be capped by reports that the Trump administration has considered a range of options in case of a major disruption to oil supply. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve may not have enough capacity to offset a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the reports do underscore that the US and the rest of the world will not stand for such a blockage.

And, with the ceasefire holding so far, markets have turned their focus elsewhere.

Last week’s FOMC meeting revealed that the policymakers are largely split into two camps: a group that wants zero cuts this year, and another group that believes two cuts are appropriate. Waller and Bowman are clearly in the latter group, and they feel a sense of urgency. Both indicated they are willing to cut as early as next month. But convincing the hawks will be difficult, given the recent data and lingering uncertainty.

Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee perhaps gave markets a shimmer of hope. Powell indicated he is open to the idea that inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs could be smaller than expected. He added that if inflation is contained, the Fed can cut rates sooner than later.

However, as our US strategist noted, Powell’s key message really wasn’t that different from his recent remarks. The Fed Chair reiterated that he needs to see the results of the trade negotiations, and the final level of tariffs. At least some of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers, according to Powell. Until this is clear, the Fed Chair believes the economy is strong enough to allow the FOMC to wait and assess the inflation outlook. We therefore believe the Fed will wait until September for its first and only rate cut this year.

Indeed, in many cases, these trade negotiations do not seem to be going anywhere fruitful. Based on the trade deal with the UK, we already concluded that Trump will probably only accept a deal in which at least some of the US’ new tariffs remain in place. According to Bloomberg, European officials have now concluded the same. They expect that the US will leave some tariffs in place.

The European Commission has repeated they are not willing to accept such a deal, where the EU makes concessions only to face lower, or more limited, US tariffs. Stephane Sejourné stated that “we will need to retaliate and rebalance in some key sectors if the US insists on an asymmetrical deal.” And, according to the EU Commissioner for Industrial Strategy, that includes any deal in which the 10% universal tariff remains in place. The Commissioner for Trade noted that this may be the case: “I understand that the US is very much working with 10% as a baseline.”

This only underscores that the current relative calm is unlikely to persist, for the US would probably not leave such a retaliation unanswered.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 10:50

WTI Crude Prices Edge Higher After Across The Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices edged higher this morning after posting the biggest two-day decline since 2022, as traders assessed the Iran-Israel ceasefire and the API report overnight that pointed to another drop in US crude stockpiles.

“There is no longer any real fear of the conflict spreading,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

“With Trump’s comments on Iranian oil exports, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to continue.”

API

• Crude -4.28mm

• Cushing -75k

• Gasoline +764k

• Distillates -1.03mm

DOE

• Crude -5.84mm

• Cushing -464k

• Gasoline -2.08mm

• Distillates -4.07mm

The official data confirmed API's reported big crude draw and products also saw major inventory drawdowns last week...

Source: Bloomberg

Total US crude stockpiles dropped to their lowest since January...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a small 237k addition to the SPR, Crude stocks fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production pushed modestly higher last week as the rig count continues to slide...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude prices inched higher after the report following two days of carnage...

Source: Bloomberg

The OPEC+ alliance is due to hold discussions on July 6 to consider a further supply boost in August.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 10:43

The Real Estate Recession You Haven't Heard About (Yet)

Authored by Peter Reagan,

Real estate and construction are considered bellwethers of the overall economy. Recently they’re not looking good – and this isn’t an isolated issue. It’s a warning sign of a crisis that could ripple through the entire economy…

The housing market is a massive portion (about 1/6th!) of the entire U.S. economy. About two-thirds of American families own their home – and for most, it’s their single biggest financial asset (as well as where they sleep). Home equity represents a tremendous share of household net worth – about half for the typical family! More of our national wealth is tied up in housing than any other single asset class.

So any unusual or unexpected developments in the real estate market get attention. Because they’re extremely important for the majority of Americans – far more important than abstractions like GDP or unemployment.

That makes recent updates on the state of the housing market concerning…

Housing affordability is near record lows

I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but it’s important that you know the truth of the situation. Today, the typical American family cannot afford a typical home. From an article at MoneyTalkNews:

As housing prices continue to climb, a startling 70% of U.S. households now find themselves unable to afford a home at the median price point of approximately $400,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That’s over two-thirds of U.S. households that can’t afford homes smack in the middle of the price range. We aren’t talking about McMansions here, we’re talking about what we used to call “starter homes,” much less expensive properties.

To give you a more solid grasp on those numbers:

About 94 million households simply can’t afford to purchase a median-priced home.

In fact, to afford “median-priced” homes in the U.S., the household income needs to be at least $110,000 per year. To afford a home that is less than half of the median price requires a household income of about $61,000.

Many Americans simply aren’t making that kind of money, not even on a household basis. Worse still, it takes significantly longer for a family to save up enough for a downpayment.

For comparison purposes:

• 1970-1985: The typical family could save 10% of their income for five years and accumulate a 20% downpayment

• 2023: The typical family saving 10% of their income will need eight years to collect a 20% downpayment

Note that those numbers are incredibly variable based on location (isn’t everything in real estate?) The average family cursed to live in New York City will need 19 years to save up a downpayment, where some Midwestern cities like Tulsa are much more affordable (4-5 years).

Affordability is a major challenge right now. It’s a stark reminder of how many people are struggling financially. Especially after several years of brutal inflation – and, of course, inflation’s impact on home prices.

And what happens when prices rise faster than our ability to pay? Supply starts to build up…

Homebuilders and realtors are facing recession

We know that is the case by just looking at the numbers.

• In May, builders broke ground on new homes at the slowest pace in five years

• Building permits issuance also hit a five-year low

• In June, sentiment among homebuilders dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic lockdowns!

Mike Shedlock has the statistics about how the decreased numbers of new homes that builders are starting:

• Total: -19.6% from September 2022

• Multifamily: -25.8% from August 2023

• Single Family: -24.9% from June 2022

To put that into perspective, nearly one in five homes that were being built… aren’t. Not anymore.

When families can’t afford to buy a home anymore, supply backs up. Prices fall. Profitability for the major homebuilding firms becomes a real concern.

Why did prices surge? I mentioned the pandemic-era inflation earlier – that’s a major factor. But far from the only factor:

• 7% mortgage rates are less affordable than the pre-pandemic 3% rates

• Low consumer sentiment means families are less likely to spend their money

• The global dedollarization drive means foreign investors are less likely to lend to American mortgage companies

• Tariffs could add as much as 9.3% to today’s too-high home prices

• Anecdotally, fear of ICE raids have led to deserted construction sites (according to reports, some 20-50% of the construction workforce are illegal immigrants)

According to Brown, other factors impacting the housing market are “new Trump-era factors, including tariffs and deportations, that are holding back construction and limiting supply.”

To be fair, we can’t reasonably put the blame for the whole situation at Trump’s feet, but it’s pretty clear that we’re in the transition period that Trump talked about from failing economic policies of previous administrations to the economic upturn Trump promised us.

As he also promised, the transition is far from a smooth and painless one.

Homes, wages and purchasing power

Inflation alone (that is, destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power) wouldn’t be as severe an issue if household incomes kept up. Unfortunately, they haven’t – here are the less-than-encouraging details:

For decades, home price appreciation has been outstripping earnings growth. In the last 25 years, home values have more than tripled. The steepest climb came between 2020 and 2022, when pandemic moves and ultra-low mortgage rates spurred a buying frenzy across the country.

Meanwhile, median incomes from 2000 to 2023 did not quite double.

That’s why we’re seeing such an affordability gap.

Now, I’m the first to blame the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies for economic issues like this. Unfortunately, the Fed’s current efforts to tame the inflation they created is hampering home sales, too!

In recent years, the housing market has been stalled by what’s known as the rate “lock-in effect.” Anyone lucky enough to have a sub-4% mortgage rate at a time when prevailing mortgage rates are closer to 7% is reluctant to give up that cheap rate in a move. That effect has kept for-sale inventory depressed.

It’s no wonder that home builders aren’t optimistic about the current home buying market. Between too-high prices and above-zero interest rates, homebuyers are caught between a rock and a hard place.

This is bigger than just the homebuilding sector, though. A depressed housing market is an early warning sign of a struggling economy. I’m not just speculating here, either. Remember the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09?

More recent memory offers the Great Recession, a severe economic downturn that began with the collapse of the housing market in the United States. While not as prolonged or severe as the Great Depression, it still caused significant economic hardship, with unemployment rates reaching nearly 10%.

We watch the housing market for exactly this reason. It’s our canary in the coalmine of the American economy.

What we can do when the canary stops singing

Sure, it’s easy to fall into doom and gloom thinking when you see numbers like this. Some of my friends think I’m obsessed with bad news… But I’m really not. I do my best to point out the important economic stories you might not see on mainstream media, and to show you how and why these stories matter.

I encourage you to remember one thing: While we cannot make major changes to our nation’s economy, we can take control of our own personal economies.

Successful people have talked about this idea for years! Focus your attention on what you can change rather than worrying about what you can’t.

An imminent housing-led slide into recession may or may not be in the cards for us. If your savings are well diversified (especially if you’re a homeowner!), your overall financial stability can endure regardless of the booms and busts of the broad economy. One of the best choices for that kind of diversification, in my opinion, is physical precious metals. Like real estate, gold and silver are one of the few financial assets you can own outright!

*  *  *

As central banks continue unprecedented money creation, protecting your purchasing power becomes critical for retirement security. Physical gold IRAs offer a tax-advantaged solution, allowing you to hold tangible precious metals with intrinsic value independent of currency fluctuations. To learn more about how physical gold could help protect your retirement portfolio, click here to get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 07:20

New York Power Grid Stabilizes After Rare Energy Warning 

New York's power grid stabilized late Tuesday after the grid operator issued a rare energy warning earlier in the day, as residential and commercial customers cranked up their air conditioning, driving power demand higher amid temperatures nearing 100°F across parts of the state. The warning came amid widespread grid instability across the eastern half of the U.S...

• "Maximum Generation Alert" Issued for Nation's Largest Power Grid

• Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

• DoE Declares U.S. Southeast Grid Emergency To Avert "Blackouts"

• "You're Welcome": Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving 'Green' Maryland From Near Power Grid Collapse

On Tuesday, New York's Central Park hit 99°F, nearing its all-time June high of 101°F. The extreme heat sent demand on the already fragile grid soaring, pushing power prices to over $7,300/MWh on Long Island and nearly $3,000/MWh in New York City.

The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state's power grid, stabilized the grid by late Tuesday after issuing a rare energy alert earlier in the day, warning of potential rotating outages. 

An Energy Warning for June 24 has been issued due to a decline in operating reserves. The grid is operating normally at this time but emergency operations may be initiated to maintain system reliability. Visit https://t.co/UL7zM41k5P for additional information. pic.twitter.com/kplRsvqxtG

— New York ISO (@NewYorkISO) June 24, 2025

To the north, New England's grid entered a Level 1 emergency late evening after unexpected generation losses that "left the region short of the resources needed to meet both consumer demand and required operating reserves," according to the local grid operator. 

PJM Interconnection, the operator of the largest U.S. power grid serving 65 million people across 13 states and D.C., extended its energy emergency alert into Wednesday. 

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul released a statement urging New Yorkers to conserve electricity during peak demand hours due to extreme heat:

"Since the beginning of this week's extreme heat, we've been carefully monitoring our electrical grid to protect New Yorkers. Earlier this evening the New York Independent System Operator warned that we are approaching peak capacity in the downstate region and it is critical to conserve electricity between now and 10 p.m. That means setting window air conditioning units to 76 degrees and avoiding unnecessary appliance use.

"At the same time, it's critical to stay safe in this dangerous heat: find a cooling center near you, especially if you're a senior citizen or have health concerns. Working together, we can easily get through this critical period." 

So much for the green policies that prematurely retired reliable fossil fuel power for unreliable climate tech; the result is clear: Power grids across the eastern half of the U.S. are stretched thin.

It's time to bring back common-sense energy policy—restoring stable generation to bridge the gap until nuclear capacity meaningfully ramps up in the early 2030s. It's also time to hold the woke climate politicians accountable for their massive mismanagement of the nation's grid.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 06:55

Former CFO Of Nigeria's State Oil Firm Arrested Over Alleged $7 Billion Fraud

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has arrested two ex-oil officials, including the former chief financial officer of Nigeria’s state energy firm NNPC, over an alleged $7.2-billion fraud, corruption, and abuse of office.

The financial crimes authorities have arrested Umar Ajiya Isa, a former CFO at NNPC, as well as Jimoh Olasunkanmi, a former managing director of the Warri refinery in Nigeria. Three other officials are being investigated, according to a statement from the commission carried by Bloomberg.

The two former executives are under investigation for alleged corruption, embezzlement, abuse of office, and kickbacks from contractors.

Isa was arrested over alleged fraud for the revamp and rehabilitation of Nigeria’s old oil refineries, Kaduna, Warri, and Port Harcourt, Nigerian outlet Premium Times reports.

Despite annual allocations of funds for the refineries’ rehabilitation, they haven’t been producing fuel in recent years.

The latest arrests and investigations come as Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and his administration are working to eradicate corruption in the oil industry and boost the country’s oil production.

The top African oil-producing country has consistently failed to pump to its OPEC+ quota due to oil theft, vandalism, and struggles to launch new projects.

Nigerian authorities have been clamping down on oil theft and have been supportive of an increase in oil and gas output in recent months.

Nigeria’s government last month urged the oil companies operating in the country to collaborate to increase oil output in the producer that hasn’t been able to pump to its OPEC quota for years.

Meanwhile, the private Dangote refinery in Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude processing facility, is ramping up production of fuels and is set to ship its first gasoline cargo out of the African region with a vessel heading for Asia.

The refinery, which began operations last year, has so far exported gasoline only to the West African region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 06:30

How Tariffs Might Impact US Car Prices, By Brand

Tariffs on imported goods can have a wide ripple effect on prices, especially in the auto industry where supply chains are global, complex, and highly sensitive to cost changes.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu reveals how tariffs will impact U.S. car prices, assuming a flat 25% tariff is applied onto vehicles imported from outside North America.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from Insurify, which projected price increases for various car brands based on their exposure to overseas manufacturing and parts.

For models assembled within North America, the projections represent a 25% tariff on a model’s non-U.S. content and up to a 15% tariff discount of the total MSRP. Visit the official White House fact sheet to learn more.

The analysis shows that Tesla, Jeep, and Honda will be the least affected by Trump’s auto tariffs, while Buick, Hyundai, and Kia will face the steepest price hikes.

Buick’s Asia-Centric Production

Although Buick is an American brand, the company produces many of its models in China and South Korea. As a result, Buick tops this list with a 22% projected price increase—the highest among all brands surveyed.

This underscores how globalization has changed the footprint of even legacy U.S. nameplates. In fact, Buick is so big in China it has its own sub-brand.

Hyundai and Kia Face High Tariff Risks

Other vulnerable brands are Hyundai and Kia, each projected to see a 21–22% increase in vehicle prices. Though both brands have some manufacturing presence in the U.S., a significant portion of their models and components are still imported from South Korea.

In late 2024, Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America opened in Georgia, which the company will use to build its U.S.-sold electric vehicles. The plant is capable of producing up to 500,000 vehicles per year.

Tesla Is the Least Affected

Tesla’s vertically integrated supply chain and domestic manufacturing help shield it from tariff risks. With most of its production based in the U.S.—particularly at its Fremont and Austin plants—Tesla’s vehicles are projected to increase in price by only 3% under new tariff rules.

This minimal impact could give Tesla a competitive edge if other brands are forced to raise prices. Fortune recently reported that Tesla is still America’s EV leader, though sales dropped year-over-year in April by 16%.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Best Selling Vehicle in Every State in 2024 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 05:45

Sweden's Education Crisis

Authored by Anders Edwardsson via The Epoch Times,

Until the late 1960s, the Swedish public school system was among the world’s best. The country’s literacy rates were nearly universal, and students performed well in mathematics, science, and reading. Education served as a social equalizer, a vehicle for social mobility, and a catalyst for economic progress. However, this source of national pride has deteriorated into a cause of public anxiety. Today, Sweden’s schools face several challenges, including declining international rankings, uneven quality, grade inflation, and issues with discipline.

This shift began in the 1960s, when Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats introduced reforms to “democratize” education by replacing the conventional school system—which offered different academic and vocational paths for students and emphasized traditional teaching, discipline, and teacher authority—with a one-size-fits-all model.

This new system also centered on “progressive” methods, claiming that children learn best when allowed to explore freely with minimal adult intervention.

As a result, self-directed learning, collaboration, and emotional development were introduced, while grades were de-emphasized; textbooks were replaced with project-based assignments, and the teacher’s role was redefined as that of a coach. For a time, even “teacher-free lessons” were tested.

These reforms were, in part, inspired by progressive American theorists such as John Dewey, who based their ideas on the fundamentally flawed behavioristic view of human nature. This philosophy posits that human nature is essentially moldable (or non-existent) and continues to influence Swedish politics today, fostering a blind belief in social engineering, the perfectibility of humanity, and the authority of state experts to reshape society through top-down reform.

The result is a school system in which ideological fashion frequently trumps empirical evidence. Dr. Erik Lidstrom, commentator and author of “Education Unchained“ (2024), is a vocal critic of the Swedish school system and has studied educational dissertations written at Swedish universities. He affirms that nearly all of them present only sentiments about how the educational system should be, without any empirical evidence to support their claims: ”It’s only ‘I think’ views and nothing else.”

Moreover, as Swedish schools transformed from places of learning into laboratories for shaping ideal citizens, they became a politicized arena subject to endless tinkering by various governments. Whether left-wing or right-wing, each administration attempted to mend the slow-motion collapse by introducing new curricula, teacher training requirements, grading scales, digital mandates, and assessment frameworks.

This constant bickering makes long-term planning impossible, confuses teachers, frustrates parents, and forces students to adapt to new curricula and grading systems every few years.

Even well-intentioned policies have backfired because they have been implemented hastily or in conflict with one another. For instance, the 1990s saw the introduction of a national school choice system that broke the public monopoly, leading to the rise of independent schools. While the intention was to enhance quality through competition, this reform led to further problems. For example, grade inflation is today an issue, with disturbing discrepancies between students’ performance on national tests and their grades that both undermine the credibility of the grading system and distort university admissions. According to Lidstrom, this is because education companies—rather than parents—have been the primary beneficiaries of the school choice system.

Sweden’s decline in educational outcomes is well-documented. Since the early 2000s, the country’s performance on the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), which compares the academic performance of 15-year-olds across countries, has nosedived. Between 2000 and 2012, Swedish students’ performance in mathematics, reading, and science declined significantly, lagging far behind top-performing countries such as Finland, Estonia, and Japan. Moreover, according to the Swedish National Agency for Education, nearly one in three students leaves ninth grade without the qualifications needed to enter upper-secondary school.

Also, illiteracy rates are skyrocketing, especially among immigrants. In 2013, university professors noted that some native-born students were not literate in any normal sense and by 2022, some 800,000 of Sweden’s 10 million residents were categorized as illiterate—the highest number since at least the mid-19th century, possibly since the early 18th century.

Faced with this grim picture, several government inquiries have proposed measures to restore order and quality in the classroom, including stronger teacher authority, more straightforward curriculum guidelines, and a renewed focus on core knowledge. But the problems are systemic. While the present center-right government is trying to change course, a “deep state” network of ideological administrators, radical unions, and progressive pundits is digging in its heels, citing “research” that claims there is nothing wrong with the current system or its standards.

Hence, lasting change will require more than technical fixes. It will demand a cultural shift among politicians and administrators alike that makes a reassessment of the flawed assumptions about human nature and pedagogy, which have guided Swedish education for decades, possible. In short, for Sweden to rebound as an education nation, it must rediscover the value of structure, discipline, and high expectations. Until then, new generations of children will continue to pay the price for a political experiment gone wrong.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 05:00

Will Germany Initiate Compulsory Military Service?

Via Remix news,

Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder has come out with an aggressive plan to prep Germany for war. Support for Ukraine, defense against Russia, and efforts to prevent terrorists from getting their hands on nuclear weapons are the priorities. 

“Compulsory military and civilian service is the future,” said Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, according to Magyar Nemzet.

“It is not enough to simply send out questionnaires to young people asking if they would be willing to serve; more decisive steps are needed,” he added. 

Germany suspended compulsory military service in 2011, but the service could be reactivated via a parliamentary ruling. The German government’s coalition agreement currently only allows for voluntary military service. However, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already indicated that a much more ambitious bill is in the works, which would allow for the introduction of compulsory military service if necessary. 

In addition to the issue of conscription, Söder also urged the maximum deployment of the Bundeswehr —the German army — and again called for the development of a national missile defense system. 

“This also requires technology – an Iron Dome system is absolutely necessary to protect not only Berlin, but all of Germany,” he said, emphasizing that urgent action, including more sanctions, is needed to deter Russia. 

Söder also called for full support for Ukraine, including supplying the country with arms. Thorsten Frei, the head of the German Chancellery, warned on Monday that the threat to U.S. military bases in Germany had increased significantly after the U.S. air strikes on Iran. 

“We stand with the United States and Israel,” Frei stated, adding that German security agencies are doing everything they can to protect American facilities. 

Regarding the attacks on Iran, the politician highlighted:

“The fact is that it was not only Israel that was in serious danger. If a terrorist regime were to obtain nuclear weapons, it would also pose a serious threat to world peace.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 02:00

Andrew Cuomo Loses NYC Mayoral Primary To Socialist Zohran Mamdani

33-year-old socialist Zohran Mamdani beat 67-year-old former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday night, and is well on his way to becoming the city's first Muslim mayor. 

Cuomo conceded the race earlier in the evening after Mamdani received nearly 44% of the votes with 90% of the votes counted at 10:30 p.m. ET. The former governor said at a watch party: "He deserved it. He won." He told the NY Times that he may still run in the November mayoral election as an independent, saying "I want to analyze and talk to some colleagues." 

That said, as the Guardian notes, given how left-leaning NYC is along with the unpopularity of incumbent mayor Eric Adams, Mumdani is likely to become New York's 11th mayor.

Mamdani's proposals include rent freezes, free buses, and city-run grocery stores which would be funded by $10 billion in new taxes on corporations and the wealthy. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders congratulated Mamdani on his win, with AOC writing on X "Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system. And you won." 

Congratulations, @ZohranKMamdani!

Your dedication to an affordable, welcoming, and safe New York City where working families can have a shot has inspired people across the city.

Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system.

And you won. https://t.co/YbJFsYjemm

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) June 25, 2025

Which may not bode well for the city's corporate tax revenues. As The Free Press noted last week, New York business owners plan to flee both the city and the state if Mamdani wins...

"We may consider closing our supermarkets and selling the business," said 76-year-old billionaire John Catsimatidis of Gristedes Supermarkets, adding "We have other businesses. Thank God, we have other businesses."

He also suggested that his real estate conglomerate - Red Apple Group, may move to New Jersey too.

"There’s the possibility we’d move our corporate offices to New Jersey. Why not?" he said. "Then you’d have four years of peace."

Probably not a bad idea...

NEW: Former rapper and socialist New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has pulled ahead of Andrew Cuomo in the city’s primary, according to a new poll.

Mamdani, 33, has pulled ahead of Cuomo in a new Emerson poll, leading him 52% to 48%.

Mamdani is accused of voicing his… pic.twitter.com/bMmwDV0AnI

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 23, 2025

*  *  *

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 01:10

Escobar: Empire Of Chaos Takes War On BRICS To Next Level

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

They came. They bunker-busted. They fled.

And then they set the stage to control the narrative via a massive P.R. operation.

POTUS hailed the “spectacular” victory of B-2s flying from the US to West Asia to release MOPs (“Massive Ordnance Penetrators) over Fordow in the middle of the night of June 22 (significantly, the same date of the start of Operation Barbarossa in 1941).

Trump 2.0 functionaries gloated that the Iranian nuclear program was now gone.

That’s the reality show. Now for reality. Mannan Raisi, a member of the Iranian Majlis (Parliament) from the holy city of Qom, summed it all up: “Contrary to the statements of the lying US President, the nuclear facilities at Fordow were not seriously damaged. Only the above-ground structures, which can be restored, were destroyed. In addition, everything that could pose a danger to the population was evacuated in advance. There are no reports of any nuclear emissions. Trump’s false claims about the ‘destruction of Fordow’ are refuted by the fact that the attacks were so superficial that there were not even any fatalities at the facility.”

What really matters is that the Empire of Chaos, in a single – spectacularly criminal – raid, bunker-busted the UN charter (again); international law (again); the NPT (perhaps for good); the US constitution; the “international community”; and Trump’s own MAGA base.

The Global South is now doing the math – and drawing the necessary conclusions.“Peace through strength” POTUS now owns two wars; a genocide; and an unprovoked attack by a nuclear superpower on behalf of a nuclear power against a non-nuclear power.

The IRGC’s response was swift: the real war starts now. The Zionist axis will pay – in spades. It will not be a full-scale war against the Empire: that’s supremely un-strategic. What will develop is multi-layered death by a thousand cuts.

That was already in effect in the morning of June 23. Iran launched no less than five multi-directional waves of missiles – covering the whole of Israel, including new targets such as Ashdod port and power station. The Israeli interception rate fell below 50%. All hell broke loose – from alert siren malfunctions to power outages. Knesset members fled. An El Al rescue flight from New York was forced to turn back in mid-air when missiles started flying.

The message: the whole of Israel is now a legitimate target – reached within minutes by Kheybar-Shakan, Emad, Qadr, and Fattah-1 missiles.

The Strait of Hormuz: the ultimate card

Iran’s upgraded priorities include: stop the war on Gaza and southern Lebanon; “evolve” the nuclear doctrine (all bets are off); targeted assassinations of Zionist leaders; more strikes on Mossad; more missile barrages on Tel Aviv, Haifa and Dimona.

There will be no direct war on the Empire of Chaos. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the ultimate Iranian card, not the nuclear card: it won’t be played in full for now. At best there could be a partial blockade of oil shipping to the – fragmented – collective West.

A top former Deep State source confirmed that “the CIA advised the Trump administration that China was resolutely against the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz, so Trump went ahead with the bombing.”

Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz will detonate a global depression of unforeseem magnitude. The loss of over 20% of the world’s oil supply will trigger the implosion of over two quadrillion dollars of derivatives, as was already speculated by Goldman Sachs projections in the late 2010s. Warren Buffett described it as a chain reaction after a nuclear explosion.

As it stands, Tehran learned a lesson the hardest way. It’s not that the Iranian leadership acted immorally: on the contrary, its belief in diplomacy and serious negotiations proved totally at odds at with the US empire’s totally debased modus operandi.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi summed it all up. Iran was negotiating with the US “when Israel decided to blow up that diplomacy.” Then Iran was talking “with the E3/EU when the US decided to blow up that diplomacy.” Ergo, it’s absurd to order Iran to “return” to the table: “How can Iran return to something it never left, let alone blew up?”

At the St. Petersburg forum, President Putin was very clear that “we support Iran and the struggle for its legitimate interests, including peaceful use of atomic energy.” He added, crucially: “Those who say Russia is not a reliable partner are provocateurs.”

Putin himself said earlier that week that Russia had previously offered to bolster Iran’s air defenses, but was not taken up on that offer. It also is no secret that unlike the treaty with North Korea, the Russia-Iran strategic partnership agreement didn’t feature a collective security provision.

That may be about to change.

There have been no substantial leaks yet on the Putin-Araghchi meeting – but supremely touchy issues would have to have been discussed. Putin reaffirmed, “the absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran has no basis and no justification.” Then, he added, cryptically: “Russia is taking steps to support the Iranian people.”

Today, Putin meets Iranian FM Araghchi in Moscow.

No one should be surprised if Iran decides that it now has to possess a nuclear weapon as a deterrent to the Zionist axis. One option floated by some analysts – although extremely touchy on several levels – would be a full security partnership with Russia and perhaps China, with Iran positioned under their nuclear umbrella.

After all these are three top BRICS nations – the revamped Primakov triangle and the Empire war is fundamentally a war against BRICS.

This new deal would at least keep Iran’s own nuclear enrichment as a civilian, scientific and non-military process, allowing the Russia-China strategic partnership to supervise uranium enrichment while providing security guarantees to Iran.

Additionally, that would be a security guarantee for the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) – which is in the strategic national interest of Russia.

The Chinese view is another very complex matter. There’s some sort of consensus among Chinese think tanks that Iran should now, more than ever, strengthen their air defense system. That likely means taking up Russia on its earlier offer to cooperate in this area.

A long dark cloud is coming down

Trump entering the – suicidal – war of Israel/US neocons on Iran just adds a new layer to the Big Picture. That was predictable since at least the late 1990s: the same playbook of controlling West Asia’s energy resources to enhance the economic power of the Empire of Chaos, while intimidating the Global South: don’t even think of deviating from our unilateral order.

Even POTUS himself gave away the game, in caps: “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change? MIGA!”

Inestimable Prof. Michael Hudson, among a few others, has summarized the stakes: “Iran is not only the capstone to full control of the Near East and its oil and dollar holdings. Iran is a key link for China’s Belt and Road program for a New Silk Road of railway transport to the West. If the United States can overthrow the Iranian government, this interrupts the long transportation corridor that China already has constructed and hopes to extend further West. Iran also is a key to blocking Russian trade and development via the Caspian Sea and access to the south, bypassing the Suez Canal. And under U.S. control, an Iranian client regime could threaten Russia from its southern flank.”

So it’s no wonder that regime change in Tehran – that’s what the whole war is all about – is a matter of supreme national interest for US elites, in the sense stressed by Prof. Hudson of a “coercive empire of client states observing dollar hegemony by adhering to the dollarized international financial system.”

Now compare all of the above with the tenor of the discussions at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) last week. The forum ended in the evening of June 20. The US attacked Iran in the middle of the night of June 22.

Virtually the whole Global South was in St. Petersburg; at least 15,000 people. Over a thousand deals were signed, amounting to over $80 billion, according to Executive Secretary of the SPIEF Organizing Committee Anton Kobakov.

There were enlightening panels all around: on the challenges of the Northern Sea Route, one of the key connectivity corridors of the 21st century; on Russia-China mutual investments; on the reform of the international financial system; on the fight against fake news – an industry the West excels in – and AI controlling all narratives; on BRICS, the SCO, the EAEU, ASEAN, the INSTC.

At the plenary session, the Global South and BRICS were fully represented: Russia, China, Indonesia (President Prabowo was the guest of honor), South Africa, Bahrain. President Putin cut to the chase: “Russia and China aren’t shaping the new world order – it’s rising naturally, like the sun. We’re only paving the way to make it more balanced.”

Yet along dark cloud is coming down, as the Empire of Chaos will go no holds barred to block the sunrise. Russia’s representative at the UN Vasily Nebenzya nailed it, sharp as a dagger: “The US has opened Pandora’s box (…) No one knows what new catastrophes and suffering it will bring.”

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 23:25

DHS Approves Construction Of "Alligator Alcatraz" For Illegal Aliens

Florida officials are building a massive detention facility for illegal aliens, dubbed "Alligator Alcatraz” for its swampy location teeming with deadly predators.

The proposed facility’s site is the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport, tucked along the eastern edge of Big Cypress National Preserve, about 55 miles west of Miami. Florida had big plans for it back in the day, aiming to transform it into the "Everglades Jetport," a massive airport poised to dwarf all others. But eco-activists and environmental worries slammed the brakes on that dream in the 1970s, leaving the project grounded.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier (R) announced plans for the project last week, expressing support for President Donald Trump’s immigration policies. "I think this is the best one, as I call it: Alligator Alcatraz," Uthmeier quipped, nodding to the infamous San Francisco Bay prison island, Alcatraz.

"This 30-square mile area is completely surrounded by the Everglades. It presents an efficient, low-cost opportunity to build a temporary detention facility because you don't need to invest that much in the perimeter,” the top Florida official said. "If people get out, there's not much waiting for them other than alligators and pythons."

Alligator Alcatraz: the one-stop shop to carry out President Trump’s mass deportation agenda. pic.twitter.com/96um2IXE7U

— Attorney General James Uthmeier (@AGJamesUthmeier) June 19, 2025

Uthmeier said the area is "virtually abandoned” and was given approval within a week. In a Monday interview with conservative podcaster Benny Johnson, the Florida attorney general said the detention center is on track to house 5,000 beds by early July.

This morning, I joined @bennyjohnson and announced that Alligator Alcatraz will be moving forward!

In Florida, the swamp means something different. pic.twitter.com/KGrHZS2DjT

— Attorney General James Uthmeier (@AGJamesUthmeier) June 23, 2025

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Monday that the federal government will pour money into plan, tapping FEMA’s Shelter and Services Program to foot the bill.

“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are working at turbo speed on cost-effective and innovative ways to deliver on the American people’s mandate for mass deportations of criminal illegal aliens. We will expand facilities and bed space in just days, thanks to our partnership with Florida,” Noem said in a statement.

A DHS official told the Miami Herald that the facility will cost $450 million annually.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 23:00

Big Decisions Remain As Supreme Court's Term Approaches End

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court has already released major decisions for the 2024–2025 term, but some of its most consequential could still be in the making.

So far, the justices have ruled on religious liberty, gender-related issues, environmental policy, and a case with a large impact on the vaping industry. Yet, more opinions are coming—ones that, among other things, could help determine parents’ rights, funding for abortion organizations, and whether and how much lower court judges can block presidents’ agendas.

Here is a breakdown of what to expect as the term comes to an end:

Birthright Citizenship and Nationwide Injunctions

From President Donald Trump’s first term to his second, presidents have encountered a spike in judges’ orders that block presidents’ agendas on a nationwide basis. These nationwide injunctions have provoked concerns about the nation’s separation of powers and whether the judiciary is being gamed by political activists.

Three of these injunctions have targeted Trump’s attempt to limit birthright citizenship, which is a major portion of his immigration agenda. While the justices could weigh in on the constitutionality of Trump’s order, they will likely focus, at this point in litigation, on whether judges are exceeding their authority with such orders.

U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer told the justices in May that nationwide injunctions exceeded the power granted to judges under Article III of the Constitution. That article allows the federal judiciary to hear “cases” and “controversies,” a provision that some say means that judges’ orders should affect only the parties before them in court.

It’s unclear how the court will rule. The justices seemed divided during oral arguments on May 15. Regardless, the decision could alter the balance of power in the federal government for generations to come.

Sex and Gender in School Libraries

The court is expected to weigh in soon in Mahmoud v. Taylor. The case is about whether schools should be able to require children’s participation involving storybooks with controversial content about sexuality and gender.

A group of Christian and Muslim parents sued Montgomery County Public Schools in Maryland, alleging that requiring their kids to hear storybooks without an opt-out on these topics burdened their parents’ exercise of religion under the First Amendment.

Part of their argument cited a Supreme Court precedent known as Wisconsin v. Yoder (1972), which said parents have a constitutional right to direct the religious upbringing of their children. Among the cited content in the current case is “Born Ready,” a book with a transgender character named Penelope who identifies as a boy.

The school district said that allowing children to opt out was not feasible and that its actions didn’t violate the First Amendment either because it wasn’t coercing children by exposing them to certain content.

During oral arguments in April, the Supreme Court seemed inclined to rule in the parents’ favor but could see some dissent.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, for example, asked how the county was burdening parents when they didn’t have to send their kids to public school. “You can put them in another situation,” she said. “You can home-school them.”

Age Verification for Porn Websites

Amid an explosion of online pornography, states have attempted to intervene to prevent health-related harms to young people. One such law from Texas has offered the justices an opportunity to analyze how regulations on pornography may or may not conflict with the First Amendment.

The Texas law requires pornographic websites to verify the age of their users. A porn industry group, known as the Free Speech Coalition, alleged that the requirement was too broad and therefore violated the First Amendment.

The coalition initially won in district court, but the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit allowed Texas’s age verification requirement to proceed. It said the requirement was rationally related to the state’s interest in protecting minors from pornography.

The Free Speech Coalition told the Supreme Court that the Fifth Circuit should have applied strict scrutiny. Under that standard, governments have to show that their laws are not overly broad and serve a compelling state interest.

Planned Parenthood and State Medicaid Funds

Planned Parenthood and abortion are back at the Supreme Court. But this time, the case focuses on how much money the abortion provider gets through Medicaid.

In 2018, South Carolina’s government decided that abortion clinics enrolled in the program were unqualified to provide family planning services and shouldn’t receive funding.

Planned Parenthood and a patient sued, arguing that the federal law establishing Medicaid allowed recipients to choose their providers. During oral argument on April 2, the Supreme Court weighed whether the law created an enforceable right for recipients to sue if they didn’t have access to the provider they chose.

Obamacare Panel on Preventive Measures

A separate, health-related case focuses on a panel set up under Obamacare, otherwise known as the Affordable Care Act, to recommend preventive care for insurance to cover. The legal issue the Supreme Court is reviewing is less about particular recommendations and more about the structure of the Preventive Services Task Force.

A company known as Braidwood Management sued, alleging that the task force’s members had to be appointed by the president. They cited a provision of the Constitution known as the Appointments Clause.

When the case, which was initiated during the first Trump administration, reached a federal appeals court, Braidwood won on that point. The Supreme Court reviewed the issue after the Biden administration asked it to intervene. The current Trump administration continued the legal defense of the task force.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 22:35

California Is America's Most Expensive State, Arkansas Its Least

How far does a dollar really go across America?

As inflation has raised everything from housing costs to the price of eggs to record levels, consumers are feeling the burden. While tariffs stand to raise prices even further—although no meaningful signs in official data show this yet—price pressures have few signs of abating.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorthy Neufeld, shows price parity by U.S. state based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

How Price Parity Compares Across America

To show the differences in prices across the country, the BEA compared each state to the national average, represented as 100 as of 2023.

State Regional Price Parity (U.S. = 100) California 113 Washington DC 111 New Jersey 109 Hawaii 109 Washington 109 Massachusetts 108 New York 108 New Hampshire 105 Oregon 105 Maryland 104 Connecticut 104 Florida 104 Alaska 102 Rhode Island 101 Colorado 101 Arizona 101 Virginia 101 Delaware 99 Illinois 99 Minnesota 98 Pennsylvania 98 Texas 97 Maine 97 Nevada 97 Georgia 97 Vermont 97 Utah 95 Michigan 94 North Carolina 94 South Carolina 93 Wisconsin 93 Tennessee 93 Indiana 92 Ohio 92 Missouri 92 Idaho 91 Wyoming 91 Kentucky 91 New Mexico 90 Nebraska 90 Montana 90 Alabama 90 Kansas 90 West Virginia 90 Iowa 89 North Dakota 89 Louisiana 88 Oklahoma 88 South Dakota 88 Mississippi 87 Arkansas 87

Ranking as the nation’s most expensive state, prices in California are 13% higher than the national average.

In particular, California’s housing rents are 58% higher overall, second-only to Washington, D.C.. at 69% in 2023. Typically, housing is the primary driver of price disparities across the country.

At the same time, Californians pay more for groceries than any other state—at around 10% higher than the U.S. average.

Ranking in third is New Jersey, driven largely by its proximity to New York. In addition to high housing costs, a separate report shows that people in the Garden State pay 32% more for household bills like utilities and health insurance than the U.S. average.

At the other end of the spectrum, southern states like Arkansas and Mississippi offer some of the lowest costs of living. In August 2024, the median home sale price in Arkansas was just $203,067 compared to the U.S. median of about $385,000. Beyond housing costs, daily expenses like transportation and utilities are also comparatively lower.

Similarly, median home prices in Mississippi stand at just $183,507, however, median household incomes fall below the national average, at $55,060.

To learn more about this topic from an affordability perspective, check out this graphic on home affordability scores by U.S. state.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 22:10

'Irrelevant' Whether Iran Actually Decided To Build The Bomb, Rubio Has Said

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that whether Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon is "irrelevant," as he was pressed on the lack of evidence that Tehran has taken steps to weaponize its nuclear program.

Rubio made the comment in an interview with CBS News when asked about the fact that US intelligence has no evidence that Iran was seeking a bomb before Israel launched its war on the country.

AFP/Getty Images

"That’s irrelevant. I think that question being asked in the media – that’s an irrelevant question. They have everything they need to build a weapon," Rubio said.

In March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said that there was no evidence that Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon, and that was still the consensus of the US intelligence community, according to multiple media reports.

Rubio pointed to the fact that Iran was enriching uranium at 60%, which is still below the 90% needed for weapons-grade, as evidence that Iran has the capability to build a bomb, since it could quickly increase to the 90% level.

Iran had made clear when it was engaged in negotiations with the US that it was willing to bring its enrichment level back down to 3.67%, but the US decided to back an Israeli attack instead of pursuing such a deal and ultimately bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran took the step to start enriching uranium at 60% in 2021 following an Israeli sabotage attack on its Natanz nuclear facility, which was meant to disrupt negotiations between the Biden administration and Iran that were ongoing at the time.

Rubio later adds in the segment, "Forget about intelligence...they are enriching uranium well beyond anything you need for a civil nuclear program."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says "it's irrelevant" whether the U.S. had intelligence showing Iran's supreme leader had specifically ordered nuclear weaponization, saying "it doesn't matter whether the order was given. They have everything they need to build nuclear weapons."… pic.twitter.com/6YldeIc38u

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) June 22, 2025

The Islamic Republic has built its most sensitive nuclear sites deep underground given past sabotage attacks, and on fears of Israeli or US bombing raids against them, which is exactly what happened this weekend.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 21:45

Iran's IRGC Quds Force Leader Shows Up In Tehran Streets After Reports Of His Death

A week ago there were widespread reports and rumors that Israeli airstrikes and targeted assassinations in Iran had killed Esmail Qaani, who in 2020 had succeeded the top Iranian IRGC Quds Force general Qassem Soleimani, killed by a US strike in Baghdad.

But on Tuesday Qaani appeared before crowds in Tehran, as Iranians take to the streets to support the military and assert their defiance following Israeli and US bombs falling on the country during the current ceasefire.

"Several news outlets affiliated with Iran-allied groups, including the Houthis’ Al Masirah TV, have shared footage they say shows Esmail Qaani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Quds Force, among the rallying crowds in Tehran," Al Jazeera writes.

"If confirmed, the videos would dispel reports that Qaani was assassinated by Israel," the report concludes.

Below is video which disproves (assuming it is not a deepfake or impersonator) that Qaani was not killed in an Israeli airstrike last week:

Iran's Quds Force commander Qaani reportedly shows up in Tehran. Iranian state media says he is alive. pic.twitter.com/U1t5siDJcP

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 24, 2025

This latest flare-up in fighting between Israel and Iran is actually not the first time Qaani has falsely been reported dead.

Israeli broadcasters are featuring the video of his appearance Tuesday in Iranian streets, after the initial claim spread quickly in Israeli media...

תיעוד: איסמאעיל קאאני, מפקד כוח קודס במשמרות המהפכה, השתתף ב"חגיגות הניצחון" בטהראן - ובכך הזים את הדיווחים על חיסולו @OmerShahar123 pic.twitter.com/ieFP9atcxi

— כאן חדשות (@kann_news) June 24, 2025

Like with Russia-Ukraine, the fog of war is thick in the Iranian theatre, and there is evidence that both sides have national censors which are cracking down on what information gets shared, after some 12-days of exchanging deadly airstrikes and missile fire.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 21:20

U.N. Quietly Lowers Population Forecasts

Authored by Bill King via RealClearPolitics.com,

For decades, we’ve been told that the world’s biggest problem is too many people. From Malthus in the 18th century to “The Population Bomb” in the 1960s, the warnings were dire: More people would mean more famine, more poverty, more environmental destruction. But something unexpected has happened. The demographic math has changed. And the United Nations, the world’s most cited authority on population forecasts, has taken notice.

Until recently, their models predicted that the global population would continue to grow throughout the 21st century, reaching a peak of nearly 11 billion by the year 2100. But in its 2022 and 2024 revisions, the U.N. quietly lowered its global population projections. The most recent estimate puts the peak at just 10.3 billion, and it comes nearly two decades earlier, around 2084.

That might still sound like a big number. But it’s a sharp departure from the “endless growth” assumptions many policymakers, investors, and institutions still use to guide their decisions. The real story is not just that the U.N. is forecasting fewer people. It’s that many demographers believe that even those numbers are still too high.

Fertility Collapse

The shift in projections isn’t happening because people are dying faster. In fact, life expectancy continues to rise, albeit modestly, in most parts of the world. The big change is that people are having fewer children – much fewer.

Around 1970, the global fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) was about five children per woman. Today, it’s down to 2.25 and falling. In nearly 70% of the world’s countries, fertility rates are already below the so-called “replacement rate” – the level needed to maintain a stable population. In developed countries, that’s typically pegged at around 2.1 children per woman. In higher-mortality countries, it is slightly higher.

This global fertility decline has happened faster than most experts expected. And that’s why the U.N. has revised its models twice in just the last five years. But not everyone thinks the U.N. has gone far enough.

Over the last decade, several independent teams of researchers have developed alternative population projections. Most of them show that fertility will drop faster than the U.N. is predicting. A team at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), for example, gained wide attention in 2020, when it projected that the global population would peak around 2064 at just over 9 billion and decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100.

Wolfgang Lutz, one of the world’s most respected demographers, has also published projections showing a lower and earlier population peak. Lutz’s group at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital bases its models on education and urbanization trends, which are closely tied to fertility behavior. In a 2024 analysis of surveys involving over a million women in Sub-Saharan Africa, Lutz and his co-authors concluded that fertility rates there are falling faster than expected, especially as female education improves.

In their 2019 book, “Empty Planet,” Canadian journalists Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson summarized the case for the likelihood of the lower projections. While not academic demographers, they conducted extensive interviews and focus groups in about a dozen countries, asking women about their thoughts on family and childbearing. They concluded that the fertility collapse is as much cultural as economic, and that the cultural factors will drive down fertility rates further and faster than in the past.

“Predictions are hard – especially about the future.”

So said that famous American philosopher, Yogi Beara. As a result, all models use probabilistic variations that incorporate a wide range of possible futures.

For example, while the U.N.’s median projection sees a peak at 10.3 billion in 2084, their model also includes a low-fertility scenario, in which the population peaks around 2060 at 9.5 billion and declines from there.

That lower path aligns more closely with the academic projections.

It’s All About Africa

The fertility rate has already fallen to or below the replacement rate in countries where nearly three-quarters of the world’s population lives. In another 15%, the rate is only just above the replacement rate and is falling fast.

However, there are about two dozen countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Southwest Asia where the rate is still very high. Although these countries only account for about 11% of the world’s population, they will contribute nearly all of whatever population growth there is between now and whenever the population peaks. The common denominators in the countries that have kept birth rates high are a blend of religious fundamentalism (particularly fundamentalist Islam), limited international engagement, and weak state capacity.

Nonetheless, the birth rate is falling in these countries, albeit to varying extents. Most of the debate over the trajectory of future global population boils down to how fast and to what extent these countries will follow the same fertility decline seen in the rest of the world over the last 50 years.

Why This Matters

The population projections we rely on shape everything from how we plan cities to how we fund pensions. They inform immigration policy, school construction, military recruitment, and long-term economic growth assumptions. If those projections are off by a billion people or by two decades, that is not just a rounding error. It’s a seismic shift in the underlying math of the future.

However, most institutions continue to operate on autopilot, assuming that a growing population – encompassing more workers, consumers, and taxpayers – is the natural order that will persist indefinitely. However, the data clearly indicate that the era is rapidly coming to a close and the age of population growth is ending. Indeed, in some places, it already has. For the past three years, China has reported a decline in its population. What follows, and how we react to it, is one of the most critical and least understood stories of our time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 20:55

Israel Tried To 'Turn' Iranian Generals Against Ayatollah Just Before Bombs Fell

Iranian state media is reporting another arrest of alleged spy who was coordinating with Israeli intelligence. Agents working on behalf of Mossad are believed to have played key roles in Israel's military attacks which kicked off nearly two weeks ago (on Friday, June 13).

But the new arrest announced on Tuesday has been identified as a European national - without much more information being provided from Fars News agency, which issued a statement.

The arrested individual was accused of "spying on sensitive and military areas" - according to the report. This comes amid a broader crackdown and search for people who may have been relaying sensitive and secret material, for example concerning the locations of Iran's ballistic missiles and anti-air systems, to the Israeli government.

AP Image

"Since the outbreak of conflict with Israel, Iran has arrested dozens of people and executed several accused of spying for Israel," Al Jazeera reports.

"Earlier today, Iranian state media reported that six more people were arrested in the western Hamadan province for allegedly spying for Israel’s Mossad," Al Jazeera says of Tuesday developments.

The trials appear to be taking place in rapid format, in military and judicial tribunals, sometimes convened in small rooms, at a moment Israeli warplanes have been striking sites in Tehran and across Western Iran.

It has become clear that Israel was engaged in a massive spying and espionage campaign to pave the way for its 'Operation Rising Lion' - which is intent on destroying Iran's nuclear energy program, and possibly even accomplishing regime change.

The Washington Post reports on what's been revealed as one of the most brazen recruitment operations aimed at top generals:

In the hours after Israel launched its first wave of strikes against Iran on June 13, killing top military leaders and nuclear scientists, Israeli intelligence operatives launched a covert campaign to intimidate senior officials with the apparent aim of dividing and destabilizing Tehran’s theocratic regime, according to three people familiar with the operation.

People working for Israel’s security services who speak Persian, Iran’s primary language, called senior Iranian officials on their cellphones and warned them that they, too, would die unless they ceased supporting the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, according to the three people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations. One of them estimated that more than 20 Iranians in positions of power were contacted.

But what's clear from all the reporting on this is that these generals were more loyal than expected - and this wasn't met with success for Israeli intelligence. WaPo and others have republished an audio recording of one such call that took place June 13 - the day Israeli warplanes initiated their attacks:

Mossad is phoning Iranian regime generals and warning them to flee the country in 12 hours or be killed. @WashPost has the receipts:pic.twitter.com/JHyHwaZWLK

— Eylon Levy (@EylonALevy) June 23, 2025

According to one translated part of the transcript: 

“I can advise you now, you have 12 hours to escape with your wife and child. Otherwise, you’re on our list right now,” an Israeli intelligence operative told a senior Iranian general close to the country’s rulers, according to the audio recording.

The operative then suggested that Israel could train weapons on the general and his family at any moment. “We’re closer to you than your own neck vein. Put this in your head. May God protect you,” he said.

This is without doubt fueling IRGC efforts to root out Israeli spy networks, amid the general (and understandable) paranoia over potential compromise and Israeli penetration. It's widely believed that Israel uses Iranian dissident groups, like the cultic revolutionary MEK (People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran) group, which currently has its political leadership based in Europe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 20:30

As Stablecoin Bill Heads To House, Senate Shifts To Crypto Market Structure

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Roughly a week after the US Senate voted to pass the GENIUS Act to regulate payment stablecoins, the chamber is moving to discuss a path forward for a digital asset market structure framework.

On Tuesday, lawmakers in the Senate Banking Committee’s digital asset subcommittee will hear from lawyers at Coinbase and Multicoin Capital as part of efforts to establish “bipartisan legislative frameworks for digital asset market structure.”

The hearing will include testimony from Coinbase’s vice president of legal, Ryan VanGrack, Multicoin Capital’s general counsel, Greg Xethalis and University of Pennsylvania Wharton School Executive Director, Sarah Hammer.

The hearing will be one of the Senate's first follow-ups on digital asset legislation since passing the GENIUS Act on June 17 in a 68 to 30 vote.

The bill moved to the House of Representatives for discussion, proposed amendments, and a possible floor vote.

While the Senate considers a bipartisan solution for crypto market structure, the House is already moving forward with its own legislation.

Earlier this month, the House Agriculture Committee and the House Financial Services Committee voted to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity, or CLARITY Act. The bill is expected to head for a floor vote soon.

It’s unclear whether the Senate will introduce its own version of the House’s CLARITY Act to address crypto market structure in the form of a companion bill or incorporating aspects of the House bill. Cointelegraph reached out to Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the digital assets subcommittee, for comment on the hearing, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Trump’s crypto ties still under scrutiny

Combined, the stablecoin bill and the market structure bill could address many of the regulatory issues that leaders in the crypto industry have criticized about the US.

However, the legislation still faces pushback from many Democrats in Congress, questioning how US President Donald Trump and his family could personally profit from the bills passing, given their ties to the industry through memecoins, the World Liberty Financial platform, and political donations from digital asset companies’ executives.

Trump said on Wednesday that he would sign the GENIUS Act with “no add ons” if the House were to pass it quickly. However, it’s unclear if digital assets will be a priority for the president as he faces scrutiny for ordering strikes on Iran without congressional approval over the weekend. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 20:05