"A Fork In The Road Of Human Civilization" - Trump Caps Political Comeback, Fulfills Day One Promises

President Donald Trump wrapped up the greatest political comeback in modern American history on Jan. 20 by taking the oath of office at the Capitol in front of some of his most prominent supporters and opponents.

In the inaugural address, the president envisioned a bold agenda and announced a spree of executive actions to set it in motion the same day. He declared national emergencies regarding energy and the southern border, designated Mexican drug cartels as global terrorist groups, and declared that it is the policy of the United States that there are two genders.

The president recalled the unprecedented challenges he overcame during the campaign, including prosecutions by state and federal authorities, the raid of his home in Mar-a-Lago in Florida, and two attempts on his life.

“I was saved by God to make America great again,” he said.

President Donald Trump delivers his inaugural address after being sworn in as the 47th president of the United States inside the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. SHAWN THEW/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Long before the assassination attempts and the prosecutions, Trump was banned from Twitter, Facebook, and other platforms when he announced his run for office in November 2022. As an illustration of the acuteness of the reversal of his fortunes, the CEOs of the same companies that barred him from their social media sat alongside Trump’s family and Cabinet members as the president delivered his address.

In contrast to his first inauguration, Ivan Pentchoukov writes below for The Epoch Times, Trump takes power having reshaped the Republican Party in the image of his America-first worldview. The comeback isn’t limited to politics. With Trump at the front line of the culture war in and out of office, conservatives appear to have turned the tide long-dominated by progressive values. Corporations and governments are increasingly shedding departments and policies under the ideological umbrella of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. The two abbreviations have come to be associated with the encroachment of progressive politics into business and government.

“Many people thought it was impossible for me to stage such a historic political comeback. But as you see today, here I am,” Trump said. “The American people have spoken.”

In his address, Trump previewed some of the executive actions that he would roll out the same day.

Border policies topped the list, with the president announcing he’ll declare an emergency on the southern border, reinstate his remain-in-Mexico policy, end catch-and-release, deploy the military and National Guard to the border, designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations, and invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to remove cartel members from the United States. Incoming White House officials confirmed earlier in the day that Trump will be signing executive actions the same day to address each of the items.

The president also declared a national emergency on energy, describing it as a necessary countermeasure to what he called an intentional policy by the previous administration. The orders include a measure freeing up drilling in Alaska, ending the Biden administration’s so-called electric vehicle mandate, and filling up the strategic oil reserve. The president will end federal leasing to wind farms, withdraw again from the Paris Agreement on climate change, and end some of the Biden-era regulations on washing machines, lightbulbs, and dishwashers.

President Donald Trump delivers his inaugural address after being sworn in as the 47th president of the United States inside the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. SHAWN THEW/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Trump signed the first nine executive actions immediately after delivering a speech at the Capital One Arena on the night of the inauguration. The orders included the rescission of 78 Biden-administration executive actions, requiring federal employees to show up to work in person, a freeze on hiring and regulations, and the withdrawal from the Paris climate accord. Trump also signed all-of-government directives to address inflation, prohibiting government from restricting speech, and prohibiting the weaponization of federal agencies against political opponents.

The president said he would act on some foreign policy positions that he unveiled during the transition period, including his intention to reclaim the Panama Canal, rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, and establish the External Revenue Service to oversee the collection of tariffs from other nations.

Although Trump threatened to levy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, those actions will come after the first day. Instead, he will sign a memorandum directing federal agencies to investigate unfair trade practices by foreign countries and recommend associated trade policies.

Speaker Mike Johnson listens as President-elect Donald J. Trump speaks after being sworn in during the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States takes place inside the Capitol Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 20, 2025. Kenny Holston / AFP

Describing the state of the nation in broader strokes, Trump returned to themes from the campaign trail, saying that the United States was in decline due to the policies of the preceding administration. The president positioned his speech as a turning point, opening and closing the address by saying that the “golden age” of America has begun.

“From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world. We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer,” Trump said. “During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first.”

One of Trump’s signature plans was challenged not long after he took the oath of office. Four groups filed lawsuits on Jan. 20 against the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by Elon Musk. Earlier in the day, an administration official confirmed that Vivek Ramaswamy, who co-headed the DOGE effort, has resigned from that role.

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump embrace after he was sworn in inside the Rotunda of the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. KEVIN LAMARQUE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Some of the president’s directives were put into action even as he attended the ceremonies. U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the termination of the CBP One app, which the Biden administration used to help 1,450 immigrants per day enter the country under humanitarian parole. At the Department of Defense, the portrait of former U.S. Army General and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley was removed from view.

Milley was among several people who received preemptive pardons from President Joe Biden in the final hours of his term. Biden also preemptively pardoned Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the members and witnesses of the Jan. 6 committee, and several members of the Biden family.

After the ceremonies at the Capitol, Trump and First Lady Melania Trump bid farewell to Biden and former First Lady Jill Biden. In his 2021 inaugural address, Biden set a course to root out the cultural and political forces championed by Trump. Four years later, Biden boarded a helicopter to depart the capital, with Trump’s approval ratings higher than when he left office on Jan. 20, 2021.

President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

In a second speech, which did not appear on some of the inaugural schedules distributed to the press, Trump spoke to a different group of supporters who had watched the formal address on a screen at the Capitol. The president broached some of the more controversial topics he did not bring up in the formal address. The speech, which ran for some time, took place at the same time as Biden’s farewell address. As a result, the major TV networks didn’t air Biden’s final remarks.

The former president, speaking before an audience gathered at Joint Base Andrews, thanked his Cabinet and staff, calling them “the best damn team ever.”

“If you heard from the inaugural address today, we got more to do,” Biden said, crossing himself to laughter from the audience. “I know from many years of experience, there are ups and downs, but we have to stay with it.”

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris listen during the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States takes place inside the Capitol Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2025. Kenny Holston / AFP

Trump’s second speech appeared to be impromptu, sprinkled with jokes, and more akin to the speeches at his campaign rallies. The president said the first lady persuaded him not to mention the pardoning of Jan. 6 prisoners during the inaugural address but added that an order on the matter is forthcoming and that people would be happy about it.

At a signing ceremony at the White House on Monday night, Trump granted full and unconditional pardons to all Jan. 6 prisoners with the exception of 14 people, who received commutations.

The inauguration ceremony was moved indoors days before the event because of the bitter cold, with Trump delivering his speech inside the Capitol and the inaugural parade moving to the Capital One Arena. Several speakers—including Musk, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and FBI Director nominee Kash Patel—addressed the crowd at the arena before Trump arrived.

(L-R) CEO of Meta Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, US businessman Jeff Bezos, CEO of Alphabet Inc and Google Sundar Pichai and Teska and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony where Donald Trump will sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025. Julia Demaree Nikhinson / POOL / AFP

In his speech, Patel said the number of murders, rapes, and drug overdoses was unacceptable. Patel referred to fentanyl—the synthetic opioid responsible for the biggest portion of drug overdose deaths—as “CCP fentanyl,” using the acronym for the Chinese Communist Party. The bulk of the chemical precursors for fentanyl manufacturing originate in China.

“We are not prioritized to go after the threats that face this country and most of all that face our future generations,” Patel said. “But, thank God, we will be, starting right now.”

Musk spoke briefly about his excitement for what’s to come.

“This was no ordinary victory,” Musk said. “This was a fork in the road of human civilization.”

Congratulations poured in from world leaders, including those of Russia, Ukraine, Canada, the UK, and the European Union. Chinese communist regime leader Xi Jinping—who was invited to the inauguration but sent an envoy in his place—did not send a greeting.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/21/2025 - 08:45

Hamas Emerges From Tunnels Still Intact, Starts 'Policing' Gaza Again

Since the Gaza ceasefire deal took effect Sunday morning, there's been clear evidence that Hamas is still intact and operating in various parts of the Gaza Strip even after some 470 days of war.

Among Prime Minister Netanyahu's goals was the complete eradication of Hamas in the wake of the Oct.7 terror attack and taking of hostages. But Hamas commanders have been emerging from the tunnels and parading openly on streets as the ceasefire holds.

Over the past year-plus of fighting both the political leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh, and its Gaza commander, Yahya Sinwar, have been killed - so certainly Hamas has taken serious blows, but it still has many thousands of fighters ready to carry on.

Associated Press: A bus carrying released Palestinian prisoners arrives to the West Bank city of Beitunia on Monday.

"Hamas appears to be emerging from tunnels and rubble in Gaza to show that it never lost control of most of the area despite fifteen months of war," The Jerusalem Post acknowledges in a fresh report. "While Hamas suffered many blows from the IDF, it was able to recruit new members, and it even kept trucks and vans ready to return to the streets and show its presence."

"Videos purported to be from Gaza show the group in white pickup trucks driving around," the report continues. "The videos show large groups of armed men waving to crowds or standing and sitting on vehicles that are parading them through the streets.

Additionally, "Hamas police, an arm of the terrorist group, are also reappearing. They have been around throughout the war, but their presence has not been as clearly felt in some areas."

An Al Jazeera regional correspondent has also witnessed evidence of Hamas being organizationally intact:

What happened earlier in Gaza City’s Saraya Square is that the military wing of Hamas handed over three female Israeli captives in a scene that felt beyond imagination.

The military wing of Hamas – which has been engaging in battles with the Israeli occupation forces across many areas in the Gaza Strip – appeared today, organising the implementation of the deal and the exchange of the Israeli captives.

We saw crowds of Palestinians gathering in the area around the fighters of the military wing of Hamas, chanting for liberation and freedom.

So, apparently, despite the significant blows that the military wing of Hamas has endured, they appeared today as an organized force on the ground.

This could indicate that in the foreseeable future, they will still exist as a military force despite the Israeli claims that they managed to degrade their military capabilities and eradicate their military governance of the territory.

Gaza emerges from ceasefire with HAMAS still in control https://t.co/CyDEL512Yd The futility of this War is evident for both sides. The Oslo accords are buried within the decimated landscapes of Gaza. The peace makers are silent or dead, while Israel drifts into the wilderness

— Derek (Del) Pickard (@DelPickard) January 20, 2025

Israeli society is witnessing this too, and it is likely creating some dissonance. After all, if the Israeli military has been engaged in a lengthy, full and systematic air and ground campaign in Gaza - and Netanyahu government leaders have faced skepticism in claiming they can finally destroy Hamas.

But the US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan has already demonstrated that an Islamist insurgency is extremely hard to fully root out. This trend is also now on display in Gaza as Hamas militants appear in public.

Via X

Below are some further updates on the last 24 hours via Al Jazeera:

• A Red Cross delegation is in Ofer Prison, verifying the identity of the 90 Palestinian prisoners set to be released tonight.
• Hamas handed three Israeli captives to the Red Cross, which transferred them to Israeli forces who took them out of the Gaza Strip.
• Hamas’s military spokesperson, Abu Obeida, has given a televised speech, saying that Hamas is committed to the ceasefire deal, which he said could have been reached over a year ago if it had not been for Netanyahu’s “malicious ambitions”.
• Gaza’s Interior Ministry says in a statement that local security forces were reintroduced to the main streets of Gaza following the start of the ceasefire agreement today.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/21/2025 - 05:45

Trump Returns To A Europe That Has Shifted To The Right

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

When Trump returns to office on Jan. 20, he will face a much-changed political landscape in Europe, where countries including France, Germany, Austria, and Sweden have shifted toward right-wing parties and policies.

Thuringia's new State Premier Mario Voigt (L) shakes hands with Bjoern Hoecke, regional leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Thuringia, after Voigt was sworn in at the Thuringian state parliament in Erfurt, eastern Germany on Dec. 12, 2024. Jens Schlueter/AFP via Getty Images

With polling in many nations suggesting an accompanying shift in younger generations, many political analysts and pollsters believe this trend is set to continue well into the second Trump presidency.

Progressives, Centrists

When Trump first entered the White House in January 2017 Europe’s political landscape was dominated by centrist and progressive leaders.

France was led by President François Hollande, a member of the Socialist Party; Chancellor Angela Merkel, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was serving her third term in Germany; and Sweden’s Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, head of the Social Democrats, had been in power since 2014.

Italy was governed by a center-left coalition led by Paolo Gentiloni, a member of the social democratic political party Democratic Party (Partito Democratico).

Spain was ran by Mariano Rajoy, the leader of the People’s Party (Partido Popular, PP), a center-right political party, however, Rajoy was ousted by Pedro Sánchez, the leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party in 2018 after he lost a no-confidence vote.

Attitudes

Although attitudes towards immigration were generally liberal, they had begun to shift.

In a 2016 European Union report, the EU said that immigration of people from non-EU countries evoked a “negative feeling” for a clear majority of Europeans in 24 member states.

A year earlier, the 2015 European migrant crisis took place, a period of significantly increased movement of refugees and migrants into Europe, namely from the Middle East.

Merkel in 2015 accepted more than a million Syrian refugees into Germany.

Bucking the trend at the time, the UK with its conservative and liberal democrat coalition government under Tory PM David Cameron, refused in 2015 to accept any further refugees from the Middle East. Cameron also called a referendum in 2016 which resulted in the UK leaving the European Union, known as Brexit, though as a key part of the Remain camp, he subsequently resigned in 2016.

2025: Populists and Change

Eight years on, the Overton window has shifted Trump’s way. In Europe, Trump will find few of the familiar centrists and socialists he battled with in his first presidency.

Last year, The European Council on Foreign Relations predicted that 2024 European Parliament elections would see saw a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist right-wing parties gaining votes and seats across the EU, and center-left and green parties losing votes and seats.

The trend in Western Europe also suggested that the taboo of voting for populist, anti-immigration parties is fading.

Under the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy party and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italy has prevented the flow of migrants crossing the Mediterranean by implementing a program that diverts  migrants to Albania while asylum claims are processed. The program is the first of its kind operated by a European Union nation.

Meloni has also banned the production and use of lab-manufactured food to preserve Italian food heritage and has criminalized Italians from seeking a surrogate mother abroad.

The Italian navy ship Libra approaches the port of Shengjin, Albania, on Nov. 8, 2024 Vlasov Sulaj/AP Photo

The populist Elon Musk-backed Alternative for Germany (AfD), which made an unprecedented breakthrough in state elections last November, is now hoping, as second place in the polls, to make gains in national elections next month.

The right-wing anti-immigration and euroskeptic Freedom Party, led by Herbert Kickl, won the country’s parliamentary election last September, taking 28.8 percent of the vote, knocking Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s conservative Austrian People’s Party into second place. Kickl is currently being tasked with forming a new government.

France’s National Rally performed beyond expectations in the European election last June, garnering 31.5 percent of the votes cast, prompting centrist President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election, a decision he has expressed regret over.

The veteran Dutch politician Geert Wilders and his Freedom party doubled its seats in the Netherlands parliament in 2023 and is currently part of a coalition. Wilders, a right-wing populist widely known for his anti-Islam views, has pledged to curb “the asylum tsunami” and immigration to the Netherlands.

Due to the influence of The Sweden Democrats, the largest member of Sweden’s right-wing bloc and now the second-largest party in the Riksdag, Sweden has radically tightened its once-liberal migration policies. The country has taken in vast numbers of immigrants over the past two decades, which the government says has led to parallel societies and gang violence.

According to the Spanish polling company 40dB, in Spain, right-wing parties Partido Popular, Vox, and SALF are snapping at the heels of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s ruling socialist PSOE.

There have also been right-wing triumphs in Romania, albeit short-lived. Romania’s top court annulled the first round of the country’s presidential election, which was won by a populist, Calin Georgescu, who campaigned largely on TikTok.

EU officials issued a “retention order” under the Digital Services Act after declassified documents showed Georgescu had been promoted on TikTok through a series of coordinated accounts, recommendation algorithms, and paid promotion.

Reform UK leader and MP Nigel Farage arrives for a campaign meeting in London, on June 3, 2024. Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images

The UK, with a democratic socialist government under Labour, is again bucking the current trend. However, Brexit campaigner and Trump ally Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK is riding high in the polls. YouGov polling from Jan. 14 showed that if a general election were held tomorrow, 26 percent of British voters would choose Labour and 25 percent would vote Reform UK.

In a November speech, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer accused conservative governments before him of conducting an experiment with open borders and allowing record-high migration.

“This happened by design, not accident. Policies were reformed, deliberately, to liberalize immigration. Brexit was used for that purpose to turn Britain into a one-nation experiment in open borders,” said Starmer.

‘Antithetical to Our Way of Life’

Frank Furedi, the executive director of MCC Brussels and a sociologist, told The Epoch Times that voters are turning their backs on the established order, putting mainstream conservative and centrist left-wing parties on the defensive.

“And this has created a space for parties to basically say that, look, ’the problem is not only that these parties have not represented us, they’ve agreed and promoted policies that are antithetical to our way of life,'” he said.

Furedi noted that populism is on the rise across Europe, even in Portugal, which has been one of the few countries to resist a significant right-wing shift. He added that many people now believe it’s time to embrace new political alternatives.

He also pointed out a shift among younger generations, who once leaned left, are increasingly now aligning with right-wing movements.

According to an exit poll by the polling company Infratest dimap in June, support for Germany’s AfD was up 11 percentage points to 16 percent among under-25-year-olds, more than double the 5-point rise among the broader population.

In France, National Rally took a 25 percent share of the vote among 18–24-year-olds, according to pollster Ipsos in June.

Furedi said that what unites all of these different parties is the sense that “somebody or something has pulled a carpet under their feet and their way of life has sort of been called into question.”

Furedi added that many people feel alienated by the language and policies promoted by the political elites, policies that often make them feel disrespected. He cited mass migration as a key issue, which challenges national cultural identities.

“For very long time, that you couldn’t be a patriot or feel a strong sense of identity with your nation, the flag, because it was suggested that that’s somehow wrong and it’s xenophobic, whereas other people want to feel that their identity, as Spaniards or as Germans or anybody else, is worthwhile,” he said.

A man holds a Black Lives Matter sign as a police car burns in front of him during a protest over the death of George Floyd, outside CNN Center in Atlanta on May 29, 2020. Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images Anti-Woke

Professor of Politics at The University of Buckingham and Director of the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, Eric Kaufmann told The Epoch Times that attitudes to “woke” policies are key drivers to populist movement.

Kaufmann recently wrote the book “Taboo: How Making Race Sacred Produced a Cultural Revolution” and has previously called “cultural socialism” a religious form of wokeness and an ideology has taken precedence over free speech, due process, equal treatment, and other Enlightenment values.

“My view is that populism on the right comes from the same underlying drivers as the populist moment of 2014–16, namely immigration and ethnic change,” said Kaufmann.

“But anti-woke is a compounding factor,” he added.

He said that he didn’t believe that the data show that net-zero climate goals are much of a significant factor for most populist voters, though it is important for populist elites.

“In reaction to the populist surge of 2014–16 we got the cultural left deplorables/‘racist’ pushback narrative, which contributed to the cultural madness of the Great Awokening of 2013/14–2022,” he said.

He said that this produced the “moral panic” of Black Lives Matter in 2020 and the excesses of the MeToo movement, along with cancel culture and a focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).

He said that “the cultural left is on the ropes in the U.S., a bit less so in Europe.”

“But the direction of travel in both places (don’t forget Canada) is anti-woke and anti-immigration,” said Kaufmann, adding that Trump will find allies in Europe who agree with some of his agenda, especially on immigration.

“They won’t buy his ’might makes right' agenda, however, of tariffs and threats of annexation, so much depends on whether Trump’s America First is focused on internal cultural threats and China, or whether it broadens out to Europe and Canada as well. If the latter he will antagonize and lose global support,” Kaufmann said.

“So much depends on which ideas are prioritized: the good cultural ones or the often bad foreign policy ones,” he added.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/21/2025 - 05:00

Undersea Cable Damage In Baltic Sea The Result Of Accidents, Not Russian Sabotage; WaPo

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Recent damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea was likely caused by maritime accidents, not by Russian sabotage as many Western officials have alleged, The Washington Post reported on Sunday.

NATO has used recent incidents to justify an increase in its military presence in the Baltic Sea and launched a new mission called "Baltic Sentry" just last week, a move that ratchets up tensions with Russia. The Guardian reported on Sunday that a NATO naval flotilla has assembled off the coast of Estonia to "protect" undersea infrastructure.

The Post report, which cited US and European intelligence officials, said that "investigations involving the United States and a half-dozen European security services have turned up no indication that commercial ships suspected of dragging anchors across seabed systems did so intentionally or at the direction of Moscow."

US officials said "clear explanations" in each case indicated the incidents were likely accidents, and no evidence suggested that Russia was involved. In some cases, ships dragging their anchors damaged cables underwater.

The Washington Post report cites American and European intelligence officials who have ultimately rejected the official Western media narrative:

Ruptures of undersea cables that have rattled European security officials in recent months were likely the result of maritime accidents rather than Russian sabotage, according to several U.S. and European intelligence officials.

The determination reflects an emerging consensus among U.S. and European security services, according to senior officials from three countries involved in ongoing investigations of a string of incidents in which critical seabed energy and communications lines have been severed.

The Eagle S, a tanker suspected of damaging a power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, was recently boarded by the Finnish Coast Guard, and its crew has been detained indefinitely while the ship is being investigated. Finnish officials have accused the Eagle S of being part of a "ghost fleet" that carries Russian oil and avoids Western sanctions.

Yet here's more from the bombshell WaPo report:

Instead, U.S. and European officials said that the evidence gathered to date — including intercepted communications and other classified intelligence — points to accidents caused by inexperienced crews serving aboard poorly maintained vessels.

A lawyer representing the ship’s owner acknowledged that it was carrying Russian oil but said it was not a violation of international law and denied the tanker purposely damaged the undersea cable.

Via Blog of the European Journal of International Law which purports to show Christmas Day undersea cable cuts

Western officials have said the incidents in the Baltic were part of a broader Russian sabotage campaign in Europe, and some officials quoted in the Post report said they were not convinced the damage was caused by accident, but they have produced no evidence for their claims.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/21/2025 - 03:30

Europe's Concern Over Trump Isn't A Global Opinion

Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States took place this morning.

While his forthcoming presidency is viewed anxiously among a majority in Europe and South Korea, Statista's Anna Fleck reports that a new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that this is not the case in many other countries around the world.

As the following chart shows, populations of the founding BRICS nations were more positive about Trump’s second term in office than not.

In India, more than eight in ten respondents said they thought the re-election of Trump is good for their country.

You will find more infographics at Statista

By contrast, respondents in South Korea, the United Kingdom and the EU11 were the most likely to feel negatively about the next Trump era.

According to the ECFR, many respondents think Trump will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and in terms of U.S.-China relations.

Meanwhile, the writers of the report add that the pessimism of U.S. allies in Europe and South Korea indicates a “further weakening of the geopolitical “West”.”

The survey also found that many around the world expect China to become the world’s strongest power rather than America and consider Europe as a superpower equal to that of the U.S. and China.

The data shown in this chart is based on a survey of 28,549 people, conducted across 24 countries in November 2024 - just after the U.S. presidential election.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/21/2025 - 02:45

The Russian-Iranian Partnership Might Be A Game-Changer, But Only For Gas, Not Geopolitics

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The Russian and Iranian presidents met in Moscow last Friday to sign an updated strategic partnership pact that can be read in full here and was reviewed here. The run-up to this development was marked by predictable hype about it being a game-changer, which hasn’t subsided in the days since, but this is an inaccurate description of what they agreed to. The only way in which this might ring true is with regards to gas, not geopolitics, for the reasons that’ll now be explained.

To begin with, Russia and Iran already had close military-technical cooperation before they updated their strategic partnership last week as proven by the rumors of Russia relying on Iranian drones in Ukraine. They also agreed to revive the previously stillborn North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) shortly after the special operation began and the West imposed unprecedented sanctions against Moscow. Therefore, these parts of their updated strategic partnership aren’t anything new, they just aim to strengthen them.

About that, this agreement is fundamentally different from last summer’s Russian-North Korean one in that there aren’t any mutual defense obligations as clarified in Article 3. They only committed to not aid any aggression against the other, including assistance to the aggressor, and to help settle the subsequent conflict at the UN. That was already the case in their relations so explicitly clarifying it is redundant. Under no circumstances will Russia go to war against Israel and/or the US in support of Iran.

After all, “Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis” over the past 15 months as Israel single-handedly destroyed that Iranian-led regional network, so it naturally follows that it won’t risk World War III in defense of an even weaker Iran. Moreover, Russia didn’t risk war with either of them amidst last December’s American- and Turkish-backed regime change in Syria, not to mention the ongoing special operation where it has direct national security interests.

Putin is therefore very unlikely to break from this precedent, which observers can confidently conclude by dint of him declining to include any North Korean-like mutual defense obligations in Russia’s updated strategic partnership pact with Iran, which should hopefully put to rest some folks’ wishful thinking. It should also be said that the timing of this document’s signing is important too since it took place after Israel defeated the Resistance Axis and as the region correspondingly enters a new geopolitical era.

The parties had been negotiating their updated pact for several years already, and while work had finally ended last fall, Putin specifically requested during the Kazan Summit that Pezeshkian “pay a separate visit to our country to sign this document and other important documents in a ceremonial atmosphere.” Some at the time casually dismissed this as some form of protocol, but in retrospect, it’s arguably the case that Russia didn’t want to sign such a partnership pact until regional hostilities finally abated.

That’s understandable too since he foresaw that the West and some in Israel would interpret that development as supposedly being aimed against them, with the resultant spin complicating any potential peace talks over Ukraine and risking a crisis in relations with Israel. Putin remains committed to resolving the NATO-Russian security dilemma over Ukraine through diplomatic means and spent the past quarter-century expanding ties with Israel so he wasn’t going to jeopardize either in this way.

From the Iran side, Pezeshkian represents the “reformist”/“moderate” faction of the Iranian policymaking elite, and they too might have been concerned that this development would be interpreted by the West and some in Israel as being aimed against them. Such perceptions could spoil any chance of reviving nuclear talks with the US, and it was still uncertain who the next American President would be, so he and his ilk might have also calculated that it’s better to wait until regional hostilities finally abated.

Observers will note that Pezeshkian gave his first interview to foreign media since the US presidential election just days before traveling to Moscow, during which time he reaffirmed his intent to resume talks with the US. The timing strongly suggests that he wanted to preemptively counteract whatever spin hawkish elements in the new administration might try to put on his country’s updated strategic partnership pact with Russia. This might have even been coordinated with Russia to a degree too.

Moving along to the NSTC component of their updated strategic partnership pact, it’s much more substantive since the aim is to increase their measly $4 billion mutual trade, which will help Russia more easily reach other Global South markets while providing relief for Iran’s sanctions-beleaguered economy. If successful, and it’ll take some time to see either way, then the NSTC can serve as a new geo-economic axis connecting the Eurasian Heartland to West Asia, South Asia, and eventually ASEAN and East Africa.

Once again, these plans were already underway for almost three years before they finally signed their long-negotiated updated strategic partnership pact so none of this is exactly new, it just bears mentioning in the larger context considering that part of this newly signed document concerns the NSTC. Much more important than the military and connectivity parts by far is their ambitious gas plans since Russia and Iran have some of the world’s largest reserves, with the latter’s largely remaining untapped.

It was explained in late August why “Russia Might Soon Redirect Its Gas Pipeline Plans From China To Iran & India”, namely due to the continued pricing dispute with the People’s Republic over Power of Siberia 2 and the latest gas MoUs at the time with Iran and then Azerbaijan. These combined to create the credible possibility of Russia replacing its hitherto eastward export focus with a southward one instead. Their updated strategic partnership pact confirms that the southern direction is now Russia’s priority.

Putin said during his press conference with Pezeshkian that he envisages beginning exports at just 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year, presumably due to the lack of infrastructure in northern Iran, before eventually scaling it to 55 bcm. That’s the same capacity as the now-defunct Nord Stream 1 to the EU. His Energy Minister later told reporters that the route will run through Azerbaijan and that negotiations are in their final stages over pricing. Their successful conclusion would revolutionize the industry.

Russian investment and technology could unlock Iran’s enormous gas reserves, thus leading to those two creating a “gas OPEC” for managing global prices amidst the Islamic Republic’s entrance to the market. While they have a self-interested incentive to keep them high, plunging the price could deal a powerful blow to America’s fracking industry and its associated LNG exports, thus imperiling its newfound European market dominance brought about by sanctions, the Nord Stream terrorist attack, and Ukraine.

Additionally, Russian gas projects on Iran’s side of the Gulf could supply nearby India, and/or a swap arrangement could be agreed to whereby Iran provides gas to it on Russia’s behalf even sooner. For that to happen, however, India would have to defy existing US sanctions on Iran or secure a waiver. Trump 2.0 might be convinced to respectively turn a blind eye or extend such in order for India to purchase this gas instead of China, the latter of which is already defying such sanctions on the import of Iranian oil.

Part of Trump 2.0’s expected “Pivot (back) to Asia” is to obtain predominant influence over China’s energy imports, which includes cutting off its supply through a carrot-and-stick approach of incentivizing exporters to sell to other clients instead and creating obstacles for those that don’t. Some possibilities for how this could look with regards to Russia were explained here in early January, while the Iranian dimension could work as described above, albeit in exchange for US-Iranian talks making progress.

Even if India decides not to risk the US’ wrath by unilaterally importing Russian-produced Iranian gas in the event that Trump 2.0 isn’t convinced about the merits of having it replace China as Iran’s top energy client and thus threatens harsh sanctions, then China can just buy it all instead. Either way, Russia’s help in unlocking Iran’s largely untapped and enormous reserves will have a seismic effect on this industry, with the only questions being what prices they agree to and who’ll purchase most of it.

The answer to both is of immense importance for American interests since constantly low prices could kill its fracking industry and inevitably lead to the loss of its newly captured European market while China’s large-scale import of this resource (let alone on the cheap) could further fuel its superpower rise. It’s therefore in the US’ interests to boldly consider coordinating with the potentially forthcoming Russian-Iranian “gas OPEC” as well as allowing India to replace China as Iran’s top energy client.

Circling back to the headline, it’s indeed the case that the updated Russian-Iranian strategic partnership pact is poised to be much more of a game-changer in the global gas industry than for geopolitics, though its revolutionary impact on the aforesaid could have some geopolitical consequences in time. Even so, the point is that the pact isn’t geopolitically driven like some enthusiasts imagined before its signing and others still counterfactually insist afterwards since Russia won’t defend Iran from Israel or the US.

Russia and Iran “reject unipolarity and hegemony in world affairs” as agreed upon in their newly signed pact, but they’re not going to directly oppose it via joint military means, only indirectly via energy-related ones and by strengthening their economies’ resilience. The future of their strategic partnership is bright, but in order to fully appreciate its prospects, observers must acknowledge its non-military nature instead of continuing to fantasize about a joint war against Israel and/or the US like some are doing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/21/2025 - 02:00

Putting An End To Trump Derangement Syndrome

Authored by J.Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics.com,

My name is Peder and I suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

My case is not full-blown – I don’t contend that the incoming president is a fascist bent on suspending elections, jailing his enemies, and otherwise erasing our constitutional republic. I find claims that he is a sexual predator as risible as the argument that he launched a coup on Jan. 6, 2021. I gleefully whack-a-mole all the whack-doodle fantasies that pass as conventional wisdom among progressives and conservative Never Trumpers.

And yet, because it is more mild and subtle, my TDS may be more dangerous. Even though I generally support Donald Trump’s policies, I accepted the idea that he is beyond the pale. I agreed that his aggressive tweets, coarse language, and addiction to hyperbole were windows into a damaged soul. He just can’t help himself. I wished that the Republicans had somebody, anybody else to stand up against the Democrats because Trump seemed to lack the temperament and, yes, the character, to be president.

These critiques are not pulled from thin air. Trump is Trump. My mistake was transforming these complaints into condemnation, defining the man by his off-putting traits instead of his manifest gifts. More disturbingly, I probably took this line to prove to his unhinged haters that I had not drunk the orange Kool-Aid.

Not my finest hour.

I offer this confession both to clear my conscience and to offer this message to other Trump supporters who might have a whiff of TDS: Stop! Our embrace of false narratives about Trump’s character gives them credence. It is a major reason why he didn’t defeat the ineffable unqualified Kamala Harris by an even larger margin and why his job approval ratings aren’t higher. They serve as springboard for more extreme attacks against him. Look, even his supporters think he’s off.

Going forward, such wobbly support may undercut his ability to govern. We must continue to criticize him robustly when it is warranted, and those occasions will surely arise. And if there are people out there who think Trump’s perfect, I haven’t met them. But we must stop casting his all-too-human foibles as signs of something sinister.

Instead of trying to brush off the character argument, we should transform it. Donald Trump possesses a quality that has been in short supply in American politics and culture: courage.

This great strength is one source of the enmity against him.

Recall that Trump was an accepted member of elite circles for much of his life – Bill and Hillary Clinton attended his wedding to Melania in 2005. Then, suddenly, he became a pariah in 2015 when he threw his hat into the ring and dared to challenge the assumptions of the ruling class. Trump called out business leaders and politicians from both parties for policies and practices that seemed to line their pockets at the expense of average Americans: dubious trade deals with the repressive Chinese government; a lax approach to immigration that undercut working class jobs and wages; security arrangements that allowed NATO allies to free-ride on American taxpayers for their military defense.

He was an outlier, eager to challenge decades of beltline wisdom. He was a disruptor, determined to shake up a system in which consensus had smothered accountability. He was a powerful voice of dissent against a government where people got ahead by ignoring the hard questions. In a final insult, he became a symbol of our still vibrant democracy by winning not one, but two elections despite the visceral, intense, and highly organized opposition of the powers that be.

These were the real sins his enemies could not and will not forgive. In the face of relentless and unfair attacks, most people would have buckled. It would have been so much easier to play ball. Trump, instead, stuck by his guns. The courage he displayed after an assassin came within in a whisker of taking his life last summer was a true reflection of his abiding character.

The opposition to Trump will not fade during the next four years.

Those who cheered the Biden administration as it opened the borders, defied the courts, and censored critics will continue to claim that Trump poses a singular threat to our Republic. Their fraudulence may be clear for all to see, but their case of Trump Derangement Syndrome seems too far gone to repair.

As we turn a new page in our nation’s history, I am filled with hope because I see that we once again have a president with the character to provide the leadership we need.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 23:45

Houthis Halt Attacks On Red Sea Vessels As Gaza Truce Holds

The Gaza ceasefire which went into effect Sunday morning, ending a 470-day conflict which has reportedly killed over 47,000 - has continued to hold. Palestinians are returning to northern Gaza in droves, picking through the rubble and seeking to identify their homes and belongings.

Yemen's Houthis starting last week signaled they would stop their missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. As of Monday, the Houthis have announced a halt to these attacks, but with an important exception.

Via Bloomberg

International ships will no longer come under attack, the Houthis said, but attacks on Israeli-linked commercial and military vessels will continue.

"We affirm that, in the event of any aggression against the Republic of Yemen by the United States of America, the United Kingdom, or the usurping Israeli entity, the sanctions will be reinstated against the aggressor," the Houthis said in a written statement reported by Reuters.

"You will be promptly informed of such measures should they be implemented," it continued. The Houthis further said that even Israeli-linked ships will stop being targeted "upon the full implementation of all phases of the agreement."

The first of three phases is set for 42-days, during which time the terms of the subsequent phases will be negotiated and set. Hamas has already released three Israeli hostages, and dozens of Palestinians who were imprisoned in Israel have been exchanged.

On Friday, just before the ceasefire was implemented, Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi had warned that if the ceasefire didn't hold, the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping would continue. "Any Israeli breach, massacre, or siege — we will be immediately ready to provide military support to Palestinians," he had stressed.

He said his movement, formally known as Ansar Allah, will "confront any aggression, whether by the Israelis, the Americans, or their allies, or any attempts to divert our country from its liberated jihadist path."

Bloomberg meanwhile reviewed that "Most Western-linked container ships have over the past year chosen to take the much longer route around southern Africa when sailing between Asia and Europe, and kept clear of the Red Sea. That’s squeezed global shipping capacity, lifting freight rates and boosted the earnings of carriers like Mitsui OSK."

"Container-shipping giants A.P. Moller Maersk A/S and Hapag-Lloyd AG last year announced a vessel-sharing partnership for the alternative route," the report continues.

"Crude Oil Dips As Yemen's Houthi Militia Plans To Halt Red Sea Ship Attacks." - https://t.co/jdS9M0UO55

— Navroop Singh (@TheNavroopSingh) January 20, 2025

Egypt has said its taken a $7 billion hit in revenue decline from the Suez Canal for 2024, which marks about a 60% drop from prior years.

If the Yemeni operations directly against Israel do persist in face of the truce, it would complicate or damage efforts to keep the peace in the Gaza Strip, as it's already sure to be an extremely delicate and fragile truce. The Houthis have up to this point in the war launched several ballistic missiles on Israel, causing limited damage and casualties.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 23:10

Despite Biden Pardon, Fauci Still Faces Legal Perils. Here They Are...

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via RealClearInvestigations,

President Biden’s pardon of Dr. Anthony Fauci may protect the former National Institutes of Health official from immediate criminal prosecution, but some critics say he is not completely out of legal jeopardy and that public sentiment might still condemn the man who became known during the COVID-19 pandemic as “Mr. Science.”

In the days before Biden offered the pardon to Fauci, along with other critics of Donald Trump, some experts who have followed Fauci’s career and handling of the pandemic, as well as members of the Trump transition team, reiterated their assertion that Fauci perjured himself on several occasions during the pandemic – especially regarding his agency’s links to the lab in Wuhan, China, that might have created the virus that causes COVID-19.

The pardon addresses any COVID-related offenses, and is backdated to 2014—the year a U.S. ban on so-called "gain of function" virus research took effect -- research Fauci is accused of outsourcing to China.

Despite reporting that Trump is bent on revenge, the appetite among MAGA appointees for holding Fauci accountable hasn’t been particularly vocal. But former Senate investigator Jason Foster, who now runs the whistleblower nonprofit Empower Oversight, says that Biden’s pardon creates new legal jeopardy for Fauci. Sen. Rand Paul has vowed to continue investigating the COVID origins question, and sources tell RealClearInvestigations that Sen. Ron Johnson and House Republican investigators plan to do so as well. When testifying in those inquiries or answering written depositions, Fauci will be unable to dodge questions by invoking his Fifth Amendment protections against self-incrimination. “They can ask him if he lied before, replough old ground,” Foster said. “And if he lies about any prior lie, he can be prosecuted for that or held in contempt.”

Andrew Noymer, associate professor of population health and disease prevention at the University of California, Irvine, said such hearings are necessary for scientific and historical reasons. “I’m hopeful that he will now come clean about everything he knows about the origins of the virus,” Noymer said. “For the sake of public trust in science – explaining what killed 20 million people – that a complete account is much more important than speculation about what criminal penalties he may have avoided.”

“These pardons will not stop Department of Justice investigations,” said one adviser to the Trump transition team, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “We expected this and look at it as a predicate to get truth from people who can no longer use the Fifth Amendment. Now we can bring every one of them in front of a grand jury.”

Legacy media outlets promoted Fauci throughout the pandemic.

There is no consensus on Fauci’s handling of the pandemic. Legacy media outlets have promoted Fauci throughout the pandemic as “America’s doctor” who “sticks to the facts” and applauded him as “the nation’s top infectious disease expert.” When he retired from the NIH after five decades in 2022, the New York Times granted him space on its opinion page to advise the next generation of scientists, citing his own accomplishments.

Numerous social media outlets have provided a polar opposite perspective. Several X accounts have uploaded videos that show Fauci’s inconsistencies. For example, Fauci claimed in early 2022 interviews that he never recommended lockdowns, but later said he recommended shutting the country down. Independent journalist Matt Orfalea circulated another set of clips that show Fauci claiming he kept an “open mind” about how the pandemic started while alleging in others that the evidence points against a lab accident and “strongly” in favor of a natural spillover.

As Fauci’s flip-flops generated attention in Republican circles and on social media, he charged that such criticism was “totally preposterous,” adding, “Attacks on me, quite frankly, are attacks on science.”

Fauci’s many contradictory statements even caught the attention of a New York Times contributing opinion writer, Megan K. Stack, who chastised Fauci for “the largely one-sided nature of his public remarks” about the possibility the pandemic started from an accident at a lab his agency had helped fund – the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Initially, Fauci dismissed as a “conspiracy theory” the possibility of a Wuhan lab accident on a Feb. 9, 2020, podcast hosted by Newt Gingrich. Afterward, Fauci reversed himself, stating in several interviews that he had always kept an open mind.

Later reports zeroed in on Fauci’s secret involvement in prominent March 2020 research, called the “proximal origin” paper, that turned public and scientific sentiment against the possibility of a lab accident. “Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus,” the paper concluded, adding, “We do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible.” Published in the prestigious Nature Medicine journal, “proximal origin” is the most-cited scientific paper of 2020.

Subsequent emails showed that Fauci helped guide the “proximal origin” paper to publication, as congressional probers found, “without revealing that he had been involved with its creation and had even, according to the emails, given it his approval.”

Distancing himself from his own emails, Fauci later told the Times that he wasn’t sure he even got around to reading the paper. But the House later released a multi-day deposition of Fauci where he was asked about his involvement in the “proximal origin” paper. Under oath, Fauci admitted to having received and read several drafts of the paper.

But while dissembling to the media is not a crime, lying to Congress is illegal. And the Department of Justice has two referrals from Congress already requesting that Fauci be prosecuted for lying under oath.

Lies as Legal Jeopardy Fauci and Sen. Rand Paul, facing off in the public arena. “He definitely misled the senator,” said the ex-head of the CDC.

Fauci’s habit of bending the truth, as some see it, was notably on display at a July 2021 Senate hearing when Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican, bore into the funding Fauci approved for gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. While Fauci attempted to downplay his financial involvement with the Chinese government lab, reports were already percolating.

In April 2020, Newsweek reported that Fauci had approved a grant for risky “gain of function” virus research at the Wuhan lab. The Washington Post editorial board in March 2021 then called for an independent investigation into EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit funded by the Fauci-run National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. With this grant, EcoHealth subcontracted research to the Chinese, the Post noted, to do experiments involving “modifying viral genomes to give them new properties, including the ability to infect lung cells of laboratory mice that had been genetically modified to respond as human respiratory cells would.”

Fox News reported Sunday that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has barred EcoHealth Alliance Inc. and its former president, Dr. Peter Daszak, from receiving federal funds for five years. EcoHealth allegedly failed to report dangerous gain-of-function experiments to the government, which eventually led to the five-year ban. 

A month prior to Fauci’s hearing with Paul, Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs confirmed that U.S.-funded research at the WIV consisted of gain-of-function virus research that could have started the pandemic. “[I]t is clear that the NIH co-funded research at the WIV that deserves scrutiny under the hypothesis of a laboratory-related release of the virus.” At that time, Dr. Sachs led a commission formed by a British medical journal, The Lancet, to investigate how the pandemic began.

But when Paul began grilling Fauci about these details and called him out for what he characterized as evasive answers, Fauci pointed the finger back at Paul. “If anybody is lying here, senator, it is you,” Fauci said. Paul then sent a criminal referral to the Department of Justice requesting they investigate whether Fauci had committed perjury.

“He definitely misled the senator,” said former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield. When Redfield looked at all the evidence, including still-classified information, he said the weight falls in the direction of a lab accident. “Fauci manipulated the public to believe there was only one possible cause for the pandemic, a natural spillover.”

Months after Paul’s referral to the Justice Department, liberal news nonprofit ProPublica released new documents confirming the Wuhan lab had conducted such studies. “Grant money for the controversial experiment came from the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is headed by Anthony Fauci,” ProPublica reported on September 9, 2021.

“NIH admits funding risky virus research in Wuhan,” Vanity Fair reported a week after ProPublica, referencing a letter NIH sent to Congress.

Paul sent a second referral to the Department of Justice in July 2023, reiterating his demand that Fauci be investigated. At that time, House investigators released emails showing that, in early 2020, Fauci admitted that scientists were concerned the COVID virus had been engineered and researchers in Wuhan were engaged in gain-of-function research.  

“Everything he has been telling us from the very beginning has been a lie,” Sen. Paul told Fox News. “We have documented it’s a lie and it’s a felony to lie to Congress.”

Biden’s pardon negates the two Senate referrals for criminal activity. But future hearings could still require Fauci to respond to evidence that he might have perjured himself, and open him up to future prosecution if he stands by statements that can be proven to be false.

Hiding Use of Private Email Fauci is said to have communicated over a back channel about controversial beagle research.

Another area of potential inquiry is Fauci’s congressional testimony last summer denying his use of private email to conduct official business,  “Let me state for the record that to the best of my knowledge I have never conducted official business via my personal email,” Fauci wrote in his sworn statement to Congress.

This testimony seemed to contradict evidence in a 35-page memo compiled by Republican investigative staff. One email showed Fauci’s second-in-command, Dr. David Morens, suggesting someone speak with Fauci through an unofficial, private channel. In another email, Morens wrote that he would contact Fauci on Gmail.

After Fauci’s testimony, the writer of this article reported in the DisInformation Chronicle that Morens had connected KFF Health News reporter Arthur Allen with Fauci on Fauci’s private email back in May 2021. The NIH did not respond to comment about Fauci’s use of private email to conduct government business with reporters. 

In a second example, the New York Post reported that the watchdog group White Coat Waste Project accused Fauci of lying to Congress about his private email use after they released documents showing Fauci was backchanneling with a Washington Post reporter on his private email.

“I will send you an e-mail via my gmail account,” Fauci wrote in an email dated Oct. 29, 2021, to Washington Post reporter Yasmeen Abutaleb.

Fauci’s lawyer told the Post that Fauci was discussing a personal matter with the Washington Post reporter, although he did not explain what this personal matter was. 

Justin Goodman, senior vice president at White Coat Waste Project, said the evidence is clear that Fauci contacted the Washington Post about issues regarding his NIH work and then denied it to Congress. “He should be prosecuted, not pardoned.”

Follow the Money This misleading article helped to absolve Fauci of funding research that led to the pandemic, for a time. See center paragraph from its abstract on "strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation."

Congressional hearings might also delve into Fauci’s involvement in research misconduct with the “proximal origin” paper and a grant he approved for the paper’s lead author, Scripps Research Institute’s Kristian Andersen.

“There needs to be a criminal investigation of this grant and paper,” said a former law enforcement official who has worked with congressional staff investigating Fauci and his grants. “Nobody inside the executive branch has taken ownership of this.”

Shortly after the COVID virus outbreak, Fauci began discussing with several virologists, including Andersen, how the pandemic started. In a Feb. 1, 2020 email, Andersen wrote to Fauci that he had analyzed the COVID virus genetic sequence and “some of the features (potentially) look engineered.” Andersen added that, while opinions could change, he and other virologists felt the virus was not natural or consistent with “expectations with evolutionary theory.”

Later that same day, Fauci held a phone call with Andersen and other virologists and then emailed that the scientists were suspicious that a “mutation was intentionally inserted” into the virus. Other emails show that Fauci was concerned that his funding for research in China may have led to the COVID virus.

Despite their initial suspicions, Andersen and other virologists reversed course six weeks later and published the “proximal origin” paper on March 16, 2020, that absolved Fauci of funding research that led to the pandemic. Fauci then promoted the Andersen “proximal origin” paper to reporters at a White House briefing on April 17 without disclosing that he had helped marshal the study into publication.

A month later, Fauci signed off on an $8.9 million grant to Kristian Andersen. Both Andersen and Fauci have denied the grant was quid pro quo for Andersen publishing the “proximal origin” paper that absolved Fauci, but the group Biosafety Now has called twice for the paper to be retracted. 

“It is imperative that this clearly fraudulent and clearly damaging paper be removed from the scientific literature,” reads an online petition signed by over 5,000 scientists.

Richard Ebright, a professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Rutgers University and co-founder of Biosafety Now, said that Fauci should have been prosecuted for “criminal conspiracy” for his secret involvement in the “proximal origin” paper. Ebright added that the grant Fauci gave to Andersen after he published the paper likely also involved criminal behavior.

With Republicans running both the Senate and House, investigations of Fauci will likely continue as members resume digging into any NIH culpability in funding research that started the pandemic. Trump’s CIA nominee, John Ratcliffe, told House members during a 2023 hearing that classified intelligence points toward a lab accident. Ratcliffe is likely to be confirmed, and a Trump transition team source said he would likely then declassify that information, further undermining Fauci’s claims that the pandemic started from a natural spillover.

Ongoing investigations of Fauci, RCI has been told, will only further erode his credibility, even if criminal charges can no longer be filed. “This pardon means he can no longer be brought to justice,” said an adviser to the Trump transition team. “But it guarantees he will be further exposed.”

“I trusted everything Fauci said during the pandemic, and I did everything he told me,” said Bri Dressen, a former preschool teacher in Saratoga Springs, Utah. “I masked, wiped down my groceries with alcohol, kept my kids away from other kids so they wouldn’t catch the virus, and then I got vaccinated.” Dressen ended up injured by AstraZeneca’s vaccine as a volunteer in the company’s clinical trial, and founded React19.org, whose 36,000 members advocate for victims of COVID vaccine harm.

“It was the steepest learning curve in my entire life. The people in authority like Fauci are the ones I shouldn’t have trusted,” Dressen said. “It’s been a huge paradigm shift to see a hero actually turn into a villain.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 22:35

The Lousiest President Of All Time

Authored by Jeremy Egerer via American Thinker,

Anybody who wants to explain how bad the Biden administration is has to start with COVID. 

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.

As such, we knew a few things early on in the pandemic, and they were as follows:

1. The average age of death from the virus was in the 80s.
2. It had almost zero effect on young people and children.
3. Most people who died from it had three or more co-morbidities — that is, they were old as hell, fat as a hog, and really liked smoking, or drinking, or cancer.
4. It was in the same class of virus as the common cold.

Once we knew these things, especially the last one, the obvious thing to do was to give up.  There was no point crippling the strong for the sake of the weak when the weak depend upon the strong and most of the weak aren’t affected by COVID anyway.  We should have put the elderly on welfare and expanded Medicaid a bit and let the rest of us run loose.  No — we should have subsidized tickets to bath houses and any place kids eat that has a ball pit.

We like to say “hindsight is 20/20,” but this isn’t hindsight at all.  Hell, it was 2020.  The stuff I mentioned above was the conclusion every person with regular sight came to the second our government called most workers “non-essential.”  Yet this society was immediately cleaved in two.  All the healthy and thoughtful people were pitted against the sanctimonious do-gooders, the goose-steppers, and the hysterical weaklings.  And they beat us into submission, big time.

And Joe Biden was their champion.

Almost overnight, millions were thrown out of work, and a vaccine was made up that nobody had properly tested, which no company was liable for and, in its experimental form, until the pandemic hit, had never been approved by the FDA.  Joe Biden tried to force every American in a company of more than 100 people to take it or lose his job — around two thirds of the whole country, it turned out.  Heart attacks in teenagers went through the roof.  People had to choose between gambling their health and losing their homes.  Pfizer was completely unaccountable and made a windfall.  Mom-and-Pop stores across the nation went bankrupt, and gyms and churches were forced shut, and Walmart and Amazon made a killing.

To make up for the mass unemployment Democrats caused and encouraged, Joe decided to print more money than anyone ever did in American history — a bill worth $1.9 trillion, which singlehandedly made the dollar implode.  This made everybody in the country take a giant pay cut, effectively, and now most Americans can’t afford the groceries they were buying in 2019.  Or used cars.  Or (many times) the rent.

Some people escaped this crushing poverty: the ultra-rich, the people who broke the country, and people who broke into the country.  The border was left wide open for nearly Biden’s whole term, and depending on where they went, illegal aliens were given not only free housing and medical care, but also smartphones and thousands of dollars.

Haitians and Chinese and Middle Eastern gate-crashers were seen marching in by the thousands.  Venezuela went so far as to unload its prisons on us.  Independent journalists began spotting obvious gang members and people on the terrorist watchlist.  The Texans put up blockades, and the Border Patrol, under Biden’s orders, tore them right down.  In some places, gates were broken open to ensure that nobody was denied access.  In total, the BBC estimates (and I would say lowly) that over eight million people invaded.

Americans were disturbed by footage of hordes pouring over the border, so Biden closed the airspace so we couldn’t see it.  This was in fact his modus operandi whenever we started asking questions.  When doctors from places like Harvard and Stanford questioned the vaccine, he sent the FBI to bully Facebook into banning them and anyone who supported them — a clearly illegal move for which nobody, to my knowledge, has been prosecuted.  When Ashley Biden’s diary was going to be published, with all kinds of weird information about his behavior, the FBI raided the homes of journalists.  When his son’s laptop was found to contain incriminating information, he had the FBI bully social media again during an election season.  When his son was finally going to pay for taking quid-pro-quo bribes from the Ukrainians, or for doing crack and hookers on camera and buying guns illegally, Joe Biden pardoned him for everything he ever did over a ten-year period.  This was right after he went on TV to say “nobody is above the law” — an attack on, you guessed it, his own political rivals.

Whether or not anyone could measure up to the law, it’s clear that during Biden’s presidency, nobody could measure up to the government.  That’s because he was the DIE hirer-in-chief and made sure almost nobody, from top to bottom, was fit for command.  He sent a fat and mentally ill man, “Rachel” Levine, to run the United States Public Health Service.  He put Ketanji Brown on the Supreme Court — a woman so stupid that she couldn’t define “woman,” thinks being a street junkie is a constitutional right, and doesn’t have (quote) “a judicial philosophy per se.”  Despite her not having anything good to say, she speaks more, ex cathedra, according to the Washington Times, than all the other Supreme Court justices.

Because of Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, a gay man with zero experience in public transportation, is now the secretary of transportation.  Biden wanted his Cabinet to “look like America,” so he stuffed it with Jews and zero Evangelicals.  He promised us a black woman as a vice president, and the only person available was the most shrill, obnoxious, embarrassing person in the whole party.  When it became clear he had dementia, she was nominated as his successor without the public’s consent.

We could go on for hours.  When he abandoned Afghanistan — something that had to be done sooner or later — he did it so badly that not only did we lose billions of dollars of equipment, which immediately fell into the hands of the enemy, but he forgot to evacuate all our civilians, and allies, and green card–holders.  Whoopsie-daisy!

Where was Biden when our cities were getting burned down by Black Lives Matter?  Why did Antifa rioters get their charges dismissed after attacking federal buildings and officers — half of all charges, according to The Wall Street Journal?  And why were the Proud Boys locked up for trying to stop Antifa?  Why did he commute almost all the sentences on federal death row but not pardon Daniel Penny for protecting women on a subway train?  Joe Biden pardoned former Pennsylvania judge Michael Conahan, who sent falsely convicted children to for-profit prisons in exchange for kickbacks.  He left Enrique Tarrio in prison for trying to defend people from rioters.

His whole career has been helping everyone but the talented, the upright, or the American majority.  Biden canceled our Keystone Pipeline while approving the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany.  Newsweek said that at the same time he restricted domestic oil and gas production, causing prices to soar, he asked OPEC and Russia to make more oil so we could reduce our prices.  The New York Post says FEMA couldn’t find funding for victims of Hurricane Helene — our second deadliest hurricane in the last 50 years, which closed 400 roads and destroyed entire towns — because they’d already spent $1.4 billion on illegal aliens.  Israel, from October 2023 to October 2024, got a record $17.9 billion in military aid.  According to the Government Accountability Office, since 2022, Ukraine has gotten $174 billion.  According to U.S. News, we send foreign aid to more than 180 countries, and FEMA said nobody could find the money for our hurricane victims.

An important question might be asked here.  How much of this is really Joe Biden’s fault?  This is the guy we caught, on camera, in his first days after the election, mumbling I don’t know what I’m signing here when he was green-lighting executive orders willy-nilly.  Biden garbles more sentences than Lil’ Pump.  If he’s not directed off the stage, he could get stuck on it.

Like the line between the sovereignty of God and our own free will, we’ll probably never know, until the Final Judgment, who was really responsible.  But Biden is the guy we elected to take the blame for it.  He chose to be there.  The whole Democrat party said for years that he was in great shape.  So I say hang him out to dry.  He’s a coward, a sleazeball, a crook and a pardoner of crooks, an embarrassment to the already embarrassing Pope Francis, a horrible public speaker, both a profligate liar and a constant dupe, a prosecutor of truth-tellers and truth-publishers, the enemy of unborn children, a defender of everyone’s border but his own, a burden to the hardworking and the virtuous, a friend to the untalented and the envious, a sniffer of women and children, an incapable father, a consistent and regrettable clown, and a stain on the great legacy of this nation.

Jeremy Egerer is the author of Prejudices — a collection of questionable essays on Substack.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 21:25

Go Figure: Walgreens CEO Admits Locking Up Merchandise Makes It Hard To Sell

What genius retail executive mind could have figured this one out - that locking up merchandise in stores actually makes its more difficult for honest, paying customers to get to, and buy what they want?

Walgreens - facing a significant drop in year-over-year earnings - just announced plans to close 450 more stores nationwide, according to Futurism/The Byte. 

Efforts to curb "shrink" — losses from theft or fraud — included increased security measures, such as locking merchandise in containers requiring staff assistance.

However, these measures proved ineffective and counterproductive, frustrating customers.

CEO Tim Wentworth said on the company's earning's call: "It is a hand-to-hand combat battle still, unfortunately."

"But it does impact how sales work through the store because when you lock things up. For example, you don’t sell as many of them. We’ve kind of proven that pretty conclusively," he continued. 

The report says that Walgreens is struggling with rising prices, which are making it harder for consumers to afford products. The company faces challenges in its retail business due to inflation and higher interest rates, leading to more cost-conscious shopping and changes in purchasing habits.

In 2021, Walgreens faced backlash for closing five stores in San Francisco, citing "organized" shoplifting, though police records showed only 23 incidents between 2018 and 2021.

During a 2023 earnings call, Walgreens CFO James Kehoe admitted the company may have over-invested in security to address theft, acknowledging the company had perhaps exaggerated the problem. This suggests Walgreens has often used theft concerns as a cover for deeper issues within its retail operations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 20:50

U.S. Navy Corpsman Disciplined Last Year After Trying To Access President Biden's Health Records

A U.S. Navy corpsman was administratively reprimanded last year after he attempted to access President Biden's medical records, according to a new report from CBS.

On Feb. 22, at the Naval Medical Readiness and Training Center at Fort Belvoir, Virginia, a Navy corpsman sat at his desk amidst the hum of computers and quiet chatter. Nearby, a licensed civilian nurse and an Army soldier worked.

The routine setting took a turn when a colleague left her workstation, her Common Access Card (CAC) still logged in. This smart card, about the size of a credit card, grants access to secure military networks and facilities.

The group began discussing the security risk of unattended CACs, with one person noting the potential for misuse: "Someone could maliciously use your CAC when you walk away."

Spurred by "curiosity" and this conversation, the corpsman accessed restricted files. According to a Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) report obtained by CBS News through a Freedom of Information Act request, the low-ranking sailor attempted to access the president's medical records.

The investigation led to a nonjudicial punishment for dereliction of duty under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. The corpsman, whose identity was withheld, was demoted from E-3 to E-2, given 20 days of extra duty, and had pay reduced by half for six months. An E-2 with two to three years of service earns about $2,260 monthly.

The CBS report says that during a discussion about the risks of unattended CAC accounts, someone suggested such access could be used to view the president's medical records. Curious, the Navy corpsman tested this by searching "Joseph Biden" in the Genesis Medical Health System. A single record appeared, with a matching birthdate verified via Google. The file was accessed for about 20 seconds, revealing minimal information, including a doctor's name, which didn’t match publicly available details.

Realizing the seriousness of his actions, the corpsman closed the file. A female colleague advised him to self-report, but he delayed. Another coworker reported the violation first. The corpsman later confessed, citing curiosity and denying any intent to save, share, or document the record.

NCIS launched an investigation, discovering no link between the corpsman and political motives or hacktivist groups, though a reverse image search on his Instagram profile hinted at potential Anonymous imagery. Searches on his laptop included terms like "Biden" and "Anonymous." His devices, seized and analyzed, were eventually returned.

The accessed record was later confirmed to be non-legitimate. The president was informed quickly, undergoing an unrelated physical two days after the investigation began, where he was deemed "fit for duty." The corpsman faced disciplinary action but cooperated fully throughout the inquiry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 19:40

WTF: Asylum Seekers Caught With 30,000 High-Caliber Rifle Rounds In Arizona

President Donald Trump's imminent executive orders addressing the illegal alien invasion, border crisis, and cartel violence could not come soon enough, as a new report out of Arizona says a multi-agency investigation led to the arrest of several asylum seekers and a US citizen in possession of 30,000 rounds of ammunition. 

Sheriff Mark Dannels of Cochise County, Arizona, revealed Sunday in a Facebook post that in mid-January, Cochise County Counter Narcotics, Trafficking Alliance assisted Homeland Security Investigations and Burau of Alcohol Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives seized 10,000 rounds of .50 caliber ammunition and 19,640 rounds of 7.62x39 ammunition from multiple vehicles, operated by several asylum seekers and one US citizen from Texas.

Dannels' Facebook post read:

Multi-agency investigation results in ammunition seizure

In mid-January of 2025, the Cochise County Counter Narcotics and Trafficking Alliance (CNTA) assisted Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and the Burau of Alcohol Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) with an investigation leading to the seizure of 10,000 rounds of .50 caliber ammunition and 19,640 rounds of 7.62x39 ammunition.

The .50 caliber and 7.62x39 rounds were separated within two vehicles traveling east on Interstate 10 from the Phoenix area. The vehicle containing the 7.62x39 ammunition was interdicted by the Pinal County Sheriff's office. Still, the second vehicle containing the .50 caliber ammunition was located by CNTA investigators at Motel 6 in Benson.

CNTA, HSI, and USBP contacted the vehicle's two occupants at the motel. One of the occupants was found to be an asylum seeker out of Cuba and the second individual was identified as a US citizen out of Texas. The second vehicle was occupied by two asylum seekers. This investigation is ongoing and led by HSI and ATF.

Images of the seizure: 

Facebook users responded to the sheriff's post with disgust: 

"This isn't even the tip of the iceberg of what has traveled from this country. Smh Hope they never see American soil again!" one Facebook user said. 

Another person said the ammo was mostly likely destined for cartels. 

"Bet it was heading to the border or worse, heading to all the illegals who are planning an attack on US soil! So many people from different countries came here and we know nothing of their past or their true intentions," someone else said. 

"Deportation for all. Go, Trump," someone else said. 

Local law enforcement and federal agencies have yet to disclose the buyer or final destination of the ammo. Speculation points to cartels as the likely customer, but the billion-dollar question remains: for cartel operations in the US or in Mexico? Or worse, terror organizations within the US could've outsourced ammunition and weapons procurement to migrants.

The good news, according to President Trump earlier today, is that the era of open southern borders under globalist Democrats, which has threatened national security to unprecedented levels, is coming to an end. After being sworn in, Trump assured Americans that he would designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations.

Law and order must be restored. That's the mandate the American people have given Trump. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 18:30

Another Door Opens...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“…there’s little political upside in defending the rights of undocumented shoplifters.”

- Michelle Goldberg, The New York Times.

"If past is prologue, Mr. Trump lacks the acumen to carry out his ambitious agenda. The first problem is management style. In his first term, Mr. Trump was a poor administrator because of his mercurial, polarizing style and a general indifference to facts and the hard work of governance."

- Jack Goldsmith, The New York Times

Thus spake one Shawn McCreesh of The New York Times, America’s all-wise, all-knowing font of everlasting rectitude. But to answer his question, why blah blah: Donald Trump is glaring because he means bidness.

His bidness is to shift the paradigm on the mendaciously sanctimonious managerial class of the USA, of which The New York Times is the principal mouthpiece. DJT looks stern, does he? All that really tells you is how nervous the Old Gray Lady is. A million or more brains, from sea to shining sea are about to get vacuumed out and redecorated.

Readers of The New York Times — in their various C-suites, ivory towers, ateliers, yoga parlors, tasting rooms, bioweapon labs, and other haunts — remain utterly baffled about what is to begin today. No amount of ‘splainin’ seems to suffice. They behold the Golden Golem of Greatness (DJT) doing his dance onstage behind the cop, the Indian chief, and the cowpoke and all they can really see are their own careers going up in smoke (along with vested pensions, reputations, possibly even chattels, marriages, and health).

As I write, long before dawn, “Joe Biden” remains President of the US. You must wonder, as the hours dwindle to noon, what pardon power magic he’s saving for the final minutes of his term, while the whole nation is distracted by the spectacle in the Capitol Rotunda, the moiling dignitaries and celebrities, the solemn arrival of the elect, the snarky palaver of the cable news jockeys, the electric charge of history in the large room. . . .

It is a fact, perhaps missed by some of you, that Rep. James Comer’s House Oversight Committee just last week issued criminal referrals on James Biden (“Joe’s” brother) and First Son Hunter. Wait-a-minute, was not Hunter already pardoned for Gawd-knows how many misdeeds dating back to 2014, and (supposedly) preemptively for any alleged crimes to come ever hereafter? Part B of that may yet have to be adjudicated. A pardon is not intended to be a get-out-of-jail-free card. Anyway, would it be difficult for a federal attorney of average ability to draw a connection between the newly referred crimes of those two and the departing President? Hence, will “Joe Biden” pardon “Joe Biden” at 11:30 this morning?

Not to mention about 1000 other current and former public officials quaking in their Beltway McMansions this frosty morning. This is part and parcel, you understand, of the massive Cleanup in Aisle Four that must happen if the agencies of our federal government can ever be trusted again. For instance, the Department of Justice.

At the end of the workday, Friday, AG Merrick Garland made a triumphal final exit from the building past a throng of cheering and clapping employees, including dozens of federal attorneys who zealously persecuted their fellow citizens under color-of-law for no good reason, or real legal predicate, and ruined many lives and households in the process. Do you suppose they get a free pass on that? And what of the three bears of Lawfare: Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Mary McCord, all of them present at the creation of serial affronts against the Constitution (and decency) lo this past decade. Do they just skate? I doubt it, though it might take a while to shine a light on their turpitudes.

Will “Joe Biden” wave his pardon wand over Tony Fauci, Francis Collins, Scott Gottlieb, Deborah Birx, Rochelle Walensky, and dozens of other public health officials who sprung the Covid-19 operation and the deadly vaccinations on the country? Or Ralph Baric, hunkered out of sight in his Carolina lab? You realize, of course, that the orgy of illness and death from that is hardly over. For four years under “JB” the truth has been obfuscated and buried, because none of those characters has really had to answer for anything.

So, today another door opens.

The To-Do list for Mr. Trump and his aides-de-camp is dauntingly long, the corrections needed are monumental. You might have even noticed that such corrections are badly needed all over the other countries of Western Civ, and strangely many are already following suit. The WEF-inflected governments of France, Germany, and the UK are already a’wobble, and Justin Trudeau threw in the towel two weeks ago. An Arctic blast could not be more fitting for what will move through the DC Swamp at high noon today.

That is, if Mr. Trump manages to survive the hours until his swearing-in. Godspeed Number 47! And everybody else: put your tray tables up! A patch of turbulence ahead!

*  *  *

Update: I posted the above blog ten minutes before “Joe Biden” issued his raft of pardons for Fauci, the J6 Committee members, and others. We will have to stand by to see whether a “preemptive” pardon is a legitimate legal instrument. My guess is that it is not.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 13:10

Leftists Put Out Directive To "Wear All Black" Today For "National Day Of Mourning"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A prominent leftist activist group has issued a directive to its members to wear black clothing Monday to mark President Trump’s inauguration as a “national day of mourning.”

The ‘Occupy Democrats’ Facebook group, which has over 10 million followers decreed “Don’t forget to wear all black on January 20th,” with an emoji of a broken heart.

The post was mirrored on Instagram with a whole host of TDS inspired hashtags (so last decade).

Some respondents to the message suggested “We’ll be wearing black for the next 4 years.”

Yes.

Others declared how unsafe they feel while labelling Trump a “rapist” among other vile things.

As we highlighted over the weekend, TIME magazine has published an article offering “science backed” advice to leftists who might not be able to cope on Monday.

The piece suggests that they hold group crying sessions and go “forest bathing” to avoid “spiralling.”

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 12:40

DC Swamp Law Firm To Sue Elon Musk's DOGE Minutes After Trump Inauguration

President-elect Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated early Monday afternoon in a ceremony inside the Capitol Building. This morning has already been chaotic, with reports that Trump plans to issue hundreds of executive orders, while President Joe Biden announced last-minute preemptive pardons for Dr. Anthony Fauci and others.

The Washington Post reports that minutes into Trump's second term, the DC non-profit public interest law firm National Security Counselors will file a lawsuit claiming Elon Musk's "Department of Government Efficiency" violates federal transparency rules. 

WaPo's Jeff Stein obtained a 30-page complaint that will be filed later today. The complaint alleges that the nongovernmental DOGE panel violates a 1972 law requiring advisory committees to the White House to adhere to rules on disclosure, hiring, and other practices.

The lawsuit claims that DOGE meets the requirements of a "federal advisory committee," which is required by law to have a "fairly balanced" representation. These include filing annual reports summarizing the committee's activities with the General Services Administration, tracking minutes and other meeting documents that must be made publicly available unless exempted by law, and filing a charter with Congress. 

"DOGE is not exempted from FACA's requirements," NSC stated in the lawsuit, written by Kel McClanahan, executive director of National Security Counselors. 

McClanahan said, "All meetings of DOGE, including those conducted through an electronic medium, must be open to the public."

The lawsuit asks the court that any report produced by DOGE "does not reflect the views of a lawfully constituted advisory committee" and to ban Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who also leads the panel, from conducting any official business until it complies with FACA.

McClanahan told WaPo in a statement, "We're not trying to say DOGE can't exist. Advisory committees like DOGE have been around for decades. We're just saying that DOGE can't exist without following the law," adding, "If DOGE turns around and complies with FACA, the case is over."

Meanwhile, Sam Hammond, senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, said DOGE primarily implements ideas within the White House and should be exempt from FACA: "DOGE isn't a federal advisory committee because DOGE doesn't really exist. DOGE is a branding exercise, a shorthand for Trump's government reform efforts."

Hammond added: "The president is allowed to take advice from external experts without creating a formal advisory committee."

On X, the account featuring National Security Counselors stated, "Pub interest law firm for natsec, info/privacy law. I'm not here anymore. Come find me on Bluesky."

Bluesky is a social media app for anti-Trumpers suffering from 'TDS'... 

The non-profit's Director, Bradley P. Moss, is another Bluesky-er in the DC swamp.

Not a fan of Musk's X. 

DC Swamp is poised to unleash a barrage of lawsuits against Trump. Let the chaos begin. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 12:15

Trump's Tariff Playbook: All You Need To Know

As we head into the inauguration, let's take a look at some of policy changes that we can expect from Trump 2.0.

First, the table below from Goldman's research team, provides a useful summary of the key policy changes expected:

Below, we summarize some thoughts from a weekend call by Goldman chief political strategist, Alec Phillips, discussing the focus be for day 1 action:

1. Immigration (border control actions & deportation planning (although not expecting rapid mass deportation))
2. De-regulation (more specifically, energy de-regulation – leasing federal land, LNG export approvals etc.)

What about tariffs?

• Don’t expect day 1-2 actions here.
• Aside from anything else, Alec thinks Trump will want the first 24-48hrs of headlines and market reaction to be uniformly positive.
• China: Goldman expects fast action on China tariffs, but more like week 1-to-month 1 (rather than day1). The Goldman baseline equates to an average additional +20pp tariff rate (table of baseline views below, note Mex auto’s also in baseline (70% odds)).
• Universal: We have long-had 40% odds of a global all-imports tariff, think that’s roughly right still; but arguably see the skew around this as higher odds of some form of global tariffs, while being less likely on all imports (due to reports like WaPo etc.).
• Timings: Think any early announcement outside China would more likely be on process/launching investigation on import categories etc., rather than actual tariffs themselves. The Mar-Aug tax legislation process, and May-Jun Senate hearings may well include more detail for fiscal revenue plans.

In 2017, Trump began using executive orders immediately upon taking office, reflecting his intent to fulfil key campaign promises (he issued 7 executive orders in his first week in 2017). There is an expectation (according to Polymarket) he could be even more aggressive this time around:

Which policies matter most?

The most consequential policies for markets (particularly RoW) will be those related to trade. This is reflected in client polls:

There is an expectation that some of these trade policies could enacted quickly. For example Polymarket puts a 44% probability of tariffs on China in the next week:

What tariffs could be implemented?
 
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump emphasized the use of tariffs as a central component of his economic policy. He advocated for a universal baseline tariff ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, aiming to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits. He also proposed targeted tariffs on specific countries (for example a tariff of up to 60% on Chinese goods) and specific industries (such as autos).

Goldman expects Trump to increase tariff rates on imports from China by average of 20% — less for consumer goods but by as much as 60% for non-consumer goods — and to impose some additional tariffs on auto imports. A universal 10-20% tariff on all imports is a serious risk—they assign a 40% probability—but is not their baseline.

Polling of Goldman's clients is broadly inline with the above view, with investors assigning an average probability of 35% to a universal tariff:

What impact could this have on Europe?

Goldman estimates a 10% tariff could hit Euro area GDP by 1% and European EPS by 6-7% should the entire impact come in 2025. It is also worth noting that trade uncertainty has a significant negative impact as companies delay investments until the policy outlook becomes clearer. For example, Goldman estimates that a rise in trade policy uncertainty as large as the increase observed in the 2018-19 trade war could lower GDP growth by 0.9% in the Euro area.

Broadly speaking, EU equities (particularly exporters) and EURUSD will trade lower on any tariff announcements - even if they are limited to China/Mexico initially. The trade policy uncertainty as well as potential market share losses (for example Chinese companies dumping goods on Europe) are enough to create significant headwinds for European exporters (particularly Autos and Chemicals industries).

What are the trades?
 
The recent rally (and surprising outperformance relative to the US YTD) in EU equities provides an opportunity to add some downside hedges, according to Goldman's Anton Tran. Any tariff announcements in the first few weeks of the new Trump administration have the potential to catch investors offside, particularly given the turn around in positioning. After reclaiming short/medium term thresholds in the last few weeks, the Goldman model suggest CTAs are now long EU delta with downside convexity in DAX and SX5E:

First, the most liquid and vanilla:

Buy 21st Mar25 98%/93% PS in DAX for 79bps

Maximum loss is premium spent. Priced indicatively.

• DAX is the most exposed to world trade of the liquid European indices
• It also had the worst 5day returns around tariff announcements in 2018-19

For those looking for a more targeted (and higher beta) custom basket:
 
Buy 21st Mar25 98%/93% PS in GSXETRFS (GS EU Tariff Exposed) for 1.45%

Maximum loss is premium spent. Priced indicatively.

• GSXETRFS is a basket composed of European companies with high US Sales exposure but limited US manufacturing presence/ high % of US exported goods, screened with a qualitative overlay.
• Names are expected to face challenges in the event of implementation of tariffs on US export goods. They had significant beta to tariff announcement days in 2018/19 (see chart below).
• Basket is OW Automobiles & Electrical Equipment names.
• For those who prefer listed product, the SXAP put spread trades at similar premium

Finally, for traders who want even more leverage and play in the exotic space, SX5E/EURUSD down/down dual binaries look interesting:

• Buy 17th Apr25 SX5E < 95% & EURUSD < 98% for 8.5% (22%/26% EQ/FX indivs)
• Maximum loss is premium spent. Priced indicatively.

Much more in the full Goldman tariff note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 12:00

Trump To Issue Flurry Of Border & Immigration EOs, Along With DEI, Trade, Energy And TikTok

President-elect Donald Trump will issue 10 executive orders related to immigration and the border on Monday, including declaring a national emergency at the border, NBC News reports, citing an incoming White House official.

By declaring a national emergency, the Department of Defense will be authorized to deploy the military and national guard to the border. Officials did not elaborate on how many troops would be sent, or the scope of their involvement - saying it would be up to the DoD to make those decisions.

BREAKING: Donald Trump Teases Sweeping Executive Orders on Immigration, Energy, and National Security on Day One as President.

President-elect Donald J. Trump has revealed plans to launch a flurry of executive orders immediately upon taking office, targeting key areas including… pic.twitter.com/n60QYrqVuI

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) January 20, 2025

The official also said the Trump administration would continue building the border wall and suspend refugee resettlement for at least four months.

According to the NY Times, the following is a list of notable EOs Trump will issue;

Immigration and the Border

• Close the border to asylum-seeking migrants and end asylum and birthright citizenship. The president cannot change the Constitution on his own, so it’s not yet clear how Trump plans to end the guarantee of citizenship for those born in the United States, which is in the 14th Amendment.

JD VANCE: “The most important thing that we have to do is to send a message that America is closed to illegal immigration. You are going to see dozens of executive orders on day 1 that sends a message- You are not welcome into this country illegally.” pic.twitter.com/naKq2SygIP

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) January 12, 2025

• Involve the U.S. military in border security. This would draw immediate legal challenges because of the strict limits in American law for how the armed forces can be deployed inside the country.

• Declare migrant crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border to be a national emergency, which would allow Mr. Trump to unilaterally unlock federal funding for border wall construction, without approval from Congress, for stricter enforcement efforts.

• Designate drug cartels as “global terrorists.”

Designating MS-13 and Tren de Aragua as Foreign Terrorist Organizations would make it illegal for anyone to provide aid or collaborate with the groups.

HUNT: Should the Trump administration separate families to execute its mass deportation plan?

REP. ZINKE: The families are part of the problem. I surmise that in Montana, what's gonna happen is we're gonna empower the sheriffs ... the sheriffs are gonna round up. They know who's… pic.twitter.com/po1kuBmL4k

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 20, 2025

Federal Work Force

• End remote work policies and order many agencies back to the office 4-5 days a week.

Gender and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Initiatives

• Establish biological sex definitions for federal workers and as part of revised Title IX guidance to schools

• Remove protections for transgender people in federal prisons.

• Remove protections for transgender migrants in U.S. custody.

Tariffs and Trade

• Direct federal agencies to begin an investigation into trade practices, including trade deficits, unfair currency practices, counterfeit goods and a special exemption that allows low-value goods to come into the United States tariff free.

• Assess China’s compliance with a trade deal Mr. Trump signed in 2020, as well as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Trump signed in 2020 to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.

• Order the government to assess the feasibility of creating an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs and duties.

Energy and the Environment

• Declare a national energy emergency, which could allow him to unlock powers to speed permitting for pipelines and power plants..

• Order the federal government to roll back regulations that impede domestic energy production.

• Signal an intention to loosen the limits on tailpipe pollution and fuel economy standards.

• Roll back energy-efficiency regulations for dishwashers, shower heads and gas stoves.

• Open the Alaska wilderness to more oil and gas drilling.

• Eliminate environmental justice programs across the government, which are aimed at protecting poor communities from excess pollution.

Delaying the ban on TikTok

Mr. Trump vowed early Sunday to issue an executive order to give ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese owner, more time to make a sale and satisfy a law that would ban it in the United States. The incoming White House officials previewing Mr. Trump’s executive actions on Monday did not address any executive action on the app.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 11:35

Putin Says Trump Will Help Prevent WW3 In Inauguration Day Congratulations Message

Russia has congratulated Donald Trump as he takes office as US president on Monday, with President Putin making statements expressing hope for speedy resumption of official contacts between the two countries.

The Russian leader made the remarks in a meeting of the country’s National Security Council, crucially suggesting Trump's return to the White House will help prevent world war three.

"We’re hearing the statements of the newly elected US president and members of his team about the desire to restore direct contacts with Russia, which were halted by the outgoing administration," Putin began.

Source: Kremlin.ru

That's when he stressed, "We also hear his statement about the need to do everything to prevent world war three." A separate translation of the televised national security speech reads as follows:

"We hear [Trump’s] statements on the need to prevent World War III. We undoubtedly welcome such a disposition and congratulate the elected U.S. president." 

"Of course, we welcome such an attitude and congratulate the elected US president on taking office," he continued, explaining that Moscow has never "refused dialogue" with the United States. He said any fresh dialogue must be done on an "equal and mutually respectful basis."

According to more of Putin's congratulatory remarks via The Wall Street Journal:

Putin, in comments to the Russian security council on Monday, said Russia sought a "long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all peoples who live in the region." He added that his country would "Fight for the interests of Russia and the Russian people, which is the objective of the special military operation." Trump, who has been skeptical of aid to Ukraine, has said that he wants to see an end to the war, which is about to enter its fourth year, and has called for a cease-fire administered by European forces.

A week ago Trump said of Putin, "I know he wants to meet, and I'm going to meet very quickly." Trump had described, "I would have done it sooner, but… you have to get into the office." 

These words came soon on the heels of incoming national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz teling ABC News that "the preparations are underway" for a meeting between Trump and the Russian leader.

"I do expect a call … at least in the coming days and weeks," Waltz said. "So, that would be a step, and we’ll take it from there."

Prior reporting on the 'Trump peace plan' suggests that the US side will offer Ukraine a twenty-year waiting period before it can hope to join NATO; however, Moscow has rejected even this possibility as a non-starter.

❗️ Putin congratulates Trump on his inauguration, saying Russia is open for dialogue on equality and mutual respect priciples pic.twitter.com/VuwPNeyF0k

— RT (@RT_com) January 20, 2025

Without doubt, Moscow sees itself in the driver's seat - even as Ukraine tries to inflict as much damage as possible through drone and missile strikes on Russian territory. Russian forces have made weeks of rapid gains in the Donetsk, including having captured several villages and towns just on the outskirts of Pokrovsk.

There's widespread understanding that as soon as Pokrovsk falls, the whole of Donetsk will firmly be in Russian military control, given the city is central to the Ukrainian army's logistical operations in the area.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 10:45

Most Democrats Think Their Party Sucks, Feel "Burned Out": CNN Poll

A new CNN poll reveals that most Democrats think their party needs major change, and that they feel "burned out" by politics.

Supporters react to election results during an election night event for US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris at Howard University in Washington, Nov. 5, 2024. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

The poll comes as the party faces its lowest ratings in over three decades.

A 58% majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say that the Democratic Party needs major changes, or to be completely reformed, up from just 34% who said the same after the 2022 midterm elections, when the party retained control of the Senate but lost the House. Over that time, the share of Republicans and Republican leaners who feel the same way about the GOP has ticked downward, from 38% to 28%. -CNN

Just 49% of Democratic-aligned adults say they expect their representatives in congress to be even somewhat effective at fighting the GOP, while 90% of Republican-aligned adults expect their reps to be at least somewhat effective at passing new laws that will carry out President-elect Donald Trump's agenda.

Meanwhile, most adults polled (70%) describe themselves as disappointed and (64%) frustrated with the nation's political landscape, with nearly half describing themselves as 'burned out.' 40% say they're angry - rising to 52% among Democratic-aligned women. Fewer than 20% described themselves as optimistic, fired up, inspired or proud.

Just 23% of registered voters say they're satisfied with the influence voters have on the political process, down from 38% last autumn, while half of all adults (48%) say they're confident that elections reflect the will of the people. According to the report, "Confidence has undergone a partisan reversal in the wake of Trump’s electoral victory, soaring from 29% in July 2023 to 67% now among Republican-aligned adults, and dipping from 59% to 39% among Democratic-aligned adults over the same period of time."

Overall, just 33% of all Americans express a favorable view of the Democratic Party, an all-time low in CNN’s polling dating back to 1992. The GOP clocks in a tick higher, with a 36% favorability rating. Four years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, the Democrats’ rating stood at 49%, and the Republicans’ at 32%. -CNN

43% of GOP-aligned adults now say they feel more a part of the Republican party vs. less like a part of it, while 32% of Democrats say the same about their party.

What Do Americans Want?

79% of Republican-aligned voters polled say they see their party as more united than divided, while 64% of Democrats say the same - however internal divisions are a top complaint for both Democrats and Republicans.

Democrats polled who say they want to see big changes say their party is out of touch or unresponsive, and that the party has not been aggressive enough in pushing back against the GOP.

"They are too nice," wrote one Democrat respondant from Maryland. "Republicans will do anything to implement their goals (while) Democrats cling to ‘norms.’ They need to become more aggressive in their approach, but not lie like the Republicans."

"Democrats are horrible at messaging," said one Democrat woman from Arizona.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/20/2025 - 10:00