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Judge Reverses Decision, Says Unions Can Sue Over Federal Worker Firings

Judge Reverses Decision, Says Unions Can Sue Over Federal Worker Firings

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Unions representing federal workers can sue the Trump administration over its mass terminations, as opposed to being restricted to bringing challenges to federal labor boards, a judge said on March 24.

U.S. District Judge William Alsup said that the boards would not be able to adjudicate the unions’ claims that the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) violated the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers doctrine.

“In sum, but for district court jurisdiction, the public-sector unions will be precluded from judicial recourse and relief even for their separation-of-powers claim,” Alsup said in the ruling.

The American Federation of Government Employees and other unions sued the administration in February over OPM directives sent to agency heads, which aimed to further President Donald Trump’s goal of reducing the federal workforce and said agencies should fire newer employees who were not deemed critical to the mission of each agency.

Alsup concluded on Feb. 27 that OPM lacked authority to hire or fire any employees outside of the office but also ruled that while he had jurisdiction over newly fired workers, unions must take their complaints to federal labor boards rather than the courts.

In the new order, Alsup said he was wrong, breaking from three recent rulings in other cases.

The claims brought by the unions, including that OPM violated the separation of powers by directing other agencies to terminate their employees, are standard constitutional law questions that are considered by the courts, the judge said.

The expertise of the Federal Labor Relations Authority and the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board would not help resolve the claims that revolve around OPM’s authority and do not directly implicate the Civil Service Reform Act, which outlines the system for reviewing terminations and other personnel action against federal employees, according to the ruling.

Three other U.S. district judges have found that similar cases should go before a federal board, but those cases are different in part because they challenged separate aspects of the mass terminations, such as Trump’s order to agencies to carry out firings through plans called reductions-in-force, Alsup said.

The judge ordered parties in the case, including the government, to file responses to his order by March 28.

The American Federation of Government Employees and the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, plaintiffs in the case, did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. Department of Justice did not return an inquiry.

Alsup and another judge recently ordered the government to reinstate nearly 25,000 newer workers whom officials had fired across 18 agencies. An appeals court upheld Alsup’s order, prompting the administration to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. Justices have not yet weighed in on the matter.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 17:00

Trump Vows To Probe Ashli Babbitt Homicide, Consider Comp Fund For Pardoned J6ers

Trump Vows To Probe Ashli Babbitt Homicide, Consider Comp Fund For Pardoned J6ers

President Trump on Tuesday vowed that he would bring new scrutiny to the Department of Justice's handling of the killing of Ashli Babbitt by a Capitol police officer during the Jan 6, 2021 riot, and to explore the possibility of a compensation fund for the 1,500 Capitol riot defendants he pardoned.   

Trump's promises came in a Roosevelt Room interview with Newsmax's Greg Kelly. When Kelly asked Trump about the DOJ continuing to mount a defense against a $30 million wrongful death claim filed by Babbitt's husband, Trump said he wasn't aware of it but would look into the matter: 

"Well, I'll look into that. I mean, you're just telling me that for the first time, I haven't heard that. I'm a big fan of Ashli Babbitt. And Ashli Babbitt was a really good person who was a big MAGA fan, Trump fan. And she was innocently standing there; they even say trying to sort of hold back the crowd. And a man did something to her that was unthinkable when he shot her. And I think it's a disgrace. I'm going to look into that. I did not know that."

Unarmed and posing no threat of death or serious harm, Babbitt was shot to death by Capitol Police on Jan. 6 (via Stark Realities)

Babbitt was shot and killed by US Capitol Police (USCP) Lieutenant Michael Byrd as she attempted to climb through a broken window that was part of an interior doorway close to the House chamber. Though the unarmed, 5'2", 115-pound Babbitt posed no imminent threat of inflicting death or serious injury as she awkwardly navigated the narrow space -- with a furniture barricade still ahead of her --  Boyd opted against using any type of nonlethal force, and instead shot her from an ambush position, killing her with a bullet that perforated her trachea and lung. 

While it's been little-publicized by major media or leftists who screech that Babbitt "got what she deserved," Byrd had some serious disciplinary issues before Jan. 6, with some of the incidents involving the irresponsible handling and even firing of his weapon.  

Despite the damning facts of the case, leftists in and out of media have treated Byrd as a hero for fending off a nonexistent "insurrection." He was not only officially cleared of wrongdoing, but promoted to the rank of captain in 2023. In Tuesday's interview, Kelly also asked Trump how he felt about Byrd still being on duty, with a pay raise and higher rank. The president replied: 

"I think it's a disgrace. I'm going to take a look at it. I'm going to look at that, too. His reputation was ... I won't even say; let's find out about his reputation. We're going to find out. But I watched that and I saw that. And by the way, she was killed, but nobody else was killed."

Noting that the 1,500 Jan 6 defendants pardoned by Trump had "lost opportunity, lost income," Kelly asked Trump if there was any plan in the works to compensate Jan 6ers for their excessively harsh treatment.  "There's talk about that," said Trump. "A lot of the people that are in the government now talk about it, because a lot of the people in government really like that group of people. They were patriots as far as I was concerned...they were treated very unfairly.”

Given how the left went bonkers over Trump's pardons, the reaction to a reparations package for Jan 6ers would be a sight to behold. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 16:40

"We've Created A Class Of People Who Are Effectively Grifters" - Rubino Rages At US Govt's "Big Money-Laundering Operation"

"We've Created A Class Of People Who Are Effectively Grifters" - Rubino Rages At US Govt's "Big Money-Laundering Operation"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino warned last October that “Chaos is Coming.”  

With exploding Tesla dealerships, mass deportations of violent gangs, DOGE uncovering massive fraud and waste, and an out-of-control Leftist judiciary trying to stop President Trump at every turn, you could say chaos is here.  

Rubino contends it’s not going away anytime soon as government grifters are going to try to keep the cash flowing.   Now, AG Pam Bondi says her office is going after the fraudsters ripping off America. Rubino explains,

“We are finding out that the federal government is a big money laundering operation.  There are so many different ways and so many different avenues that take cash from taxpayers or newly created cash . . . and it basically funnels it to political operatives, political class and the ‘expert’ class all around the world...

We have created this class of people who are effectively grifters . . . because they don’t do anything worthwhile at all.  Do you think that think-tanks produce anything of value, or lobbyists or Washington law firms or regulators?  The regulator is basically on a long job interview for the company you are regulating.  

You prove you are a team player and then Pfizer hires you for 10 times your FDA salary.  So, everywhere you look it’s a form of money laundering.”

So, now interest payments are spiraling to infinity with massive amounts of debt and currency creation.  Rubino says, “We have hit the death spiral point for the dollar and the other big fiat currencies, which means the cost to maintain this debt starts to spiral out of control and people lose faith in the currency or the currency collapses or you have a currency reset..."

" What is really interesting about the Trump Administration is it contains a lot of gold bugs...

There is a decent chance of instead of having this gigantic collapse because the dollar is basically evaporating, that this government will be smart enough to do the monetary reset.  Go back to a gold standard . . . go back to some sort of commodity base standard where we peg the dollar to something that is real and cannot be created in infinite quantities on a printing press.  It could be we do that without insane amounts of pain and stress, but it would still be painful.  Anybody who has dollars will watch those dollars be devalued dramatically.”

In this scenario, the dollar sinks in value.  What happens to gold?  Rubino says, 

“Everybody who runs the numbers says gold has to be $10,000 per ounce at a minimum and maybe much higher.  Gold has to go way up in price in a currency reset. . . . So, your gold becomes much more valuable, and your silver gets pulled along by gold and goes up by some multiple of gold’s percentage gains.  If gold goes up three times, silver will go up five to ten times.”

Rubino thinks Europe is headed for war with Russia or civil war.  Either way, the Euro will not survive.  Rubino says the domestic violence will continue here in America but thinks the Deep State won’t stop President Trump’s agenda.  Rubino also says everybody should concentrate on owning real things such as farm land, gold, silver and a good vehicle.  Rubino also says some emergency food and a garden are good ideas too.

There is much more in the 58-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino of the popular site called Rubino.Substack.com for 3.25.25.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see some of his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 16:20

RFK Jr. Is Pushing Big Pharma Ad Ban - And Corporate Media Is Panicking

RFK Jr. Is Pushing Big Pharma Ad Ban - And Corporate Media Is Panicking

Authored by Kyle Becker via relentless,

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump’s Health and Human Services Secretary, is pushing a plan to ban pharmaceutical ads from television. He’s right to push for it—and not just because the U.S. is one of only two countries on earth that allows such advertising (the other being New Zealand).

America’s health system isn’t just flawed; it’s harming public health, distorting journalism, and fueling Big Pharma’s malignant influence over our daily lives.

Let’s start with the obvious: TV drug ads aren’t designed to inform—they’re designed to manipulate. The formula is always the same. Cue soft lighting and sappy piano music. A sad, listless person pops a pill and suddenly life is vibrant again. They’re running through fields, laughing with family, walking dogs across idyllic bridges.

Then, in a breathless voiceover, the side effects come tumbling out like a legal disclaimer roulette wheel—stroke, heart failure, suicidal thoughts. The goal? Make viewers want a drug before they even talk to their doctor. It’s emotional coercion dressed up as health education.

This completely inverts how medicine is supposed to work. Health care decisions should be made inside the exam room, not in a 60-second marketing spot. Patients should go to their doctors with symptoms, and those doctors—armed with clinical training and knowledge of the patient’s full health profile—should decide whether a drug is even necessary.

Many issues could be better addressed through lifestyle changes, diet, supplements, or preventative care. But instead, America has normalized a pill-for-everything culture, supercharged by the fact that doctors are often nudged by patients demanding whatever drug they saw advertised last night during a commercial break.

This isn’t just bad medicine—it’s dangerous. And it’s no accident.

Big Pharma isn’t spending billions on advertising because it cares about your health. It’s doing it because the return on investment is enormous. Studies estimate the ROI on direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug ads ranges from 100% to 500%, depending on the drug. In 2025 alone, pharmaceutical companies are projected to spend over $5 billion on national linear TV ads, according to iSpot.tv. That number balloons even higher when you include digital and streaming. Just a handful of blockbuster drugs—like Skyrizi, Jardiance, and Ozempic—are burning through tens of millions in TV ads every month.

This revenue isn’t just padding Big Pharma’s pockets—it’s quietly buying influence in the media. Nearly 31% of ad minutes on major nightly news broadcasts in 2024 came from pharmaceutical brands. That means a huge portion of media budgets depend on the very companies they should be holding accountable. And surprise, surprise: when Big Pharma misleads the public, many news outlets are either silent or hesitant to report critically. The financial conflict of interest is baked in.

We saw the worst-case version of this during the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel mRNA shots—rushed to market under emergency use—were sold to the public as miracle solutions. Government officials and media outlets claimed these vaccines would "stop infection," "prevent death entirely," and "end the pandemic." Younger, healthy individuals were told they needed them for everyone’s safety, despite already low statistical risk. None of these claims held up. As the data evolved, we learned the vaccines offered some reduction in severe disease, but not sterilizing immunity. Yet the media rarely corrected course.

Why would they? Pharma ads were paying the bills. Meanwhile, federal workers were mandated—and many private sector employees coerced—into getting injections under false pretenses. Billions of dollars flowed to Big Pharma. The American public was misled.

This pattern of deception is not new. Pfizer alone has paid billions in legal penalties over the years for unethical marketing, off-label promotion, and other violations. The most infamous: a $2.3 billion settlement in 2009—the largest health care fraud settlement in U.S. history at the time. Yet companies like Pfizer, AbbVie, and Johnson & Johnson still enjoy a polished image on TV, thanks in part to relentless ad spending and regulatory leniency.

RFK Jr.’s plan, while legally uphill, is not without precedent. In 1970, President Nixon signed the Public Health Cigarette Smoking Act, which banned tobacco ads from TV and radio. Cigarettes were legal, yet too dangerous to promote on air. The same principle should apply here. Just because a drug is FDA-approved doesn’t mean it should be marketed like soda. Approval doesn’t equal infallibility—just ask anyone who took Vioxx or OxyContin.

Critics, including the Wall Street Journal, have framed RFK’s proposal as a personal vendetta. That’s both lazy and misleading. In reality, there’s wide bipartisan and public support for reining in pharma ads. The American Medical Association called for a ban back in 2015. A STAT/Harvard poll found that 57% of Americans support banning TV drug ads. Even hosts on CNBC—hardly anti-business—agreed the ads are unnecessary. “Don’t you think doctors should prescribe it if you need it?” asked Joe Kernen. Exactly.

The pharmaceutical industry’s defenders like to invoke the First Amendment, claiming that banning ads would be unconstitutional. But commercial speech does not enjoy absolute protection. Under the Central Hudson test, the government can regulate ads if it has a substantial interest, the regulation directly advances that interest, and the restriction is narrowly tailored. Protecting public health from misleading pharmaceutical marketing clears all three hurdles. Even if a full ban doesn’t survive, tighter restrictions—like banning ads for certain drug classes, or requiring full price transparency—could pass muster.

More importantly, even the threat of a ban could pressure drugmakers to change course voluntarily. They did it before in 2008, when criticism led to updated self-regulatory guidelines. If Kennedy’s push forces them to rethink their practices, that alone is a win.

Pharma companies will no doubt fight this tooth and nail. But that’s not a reason to back down—it’s a reason to press harder. We’ve allowed an industry with an immense profit motive to shape our health decisions for too long. The result? A country drowning in prescriptions, mired in chronic disease, and confused about who to trust.

Enough is enough. RFK Jr.’s proposal to kick drug ads off TV isn’t radical—it’s responsible. And it’s long overdue.

~~~ KB

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 15:40

Four Missing US Army Troops In Lithuania Found Dead: NATO

Four Missing US Army Troops In Lithuania Found Dead: NATO

An unusual and alrming headline is emerging out Europe, as a major search was underway since yesterday for four US Army soldiers who had gone missing in Lithuania. The Associated Press in a breaking headline is now reporting they are dead:

NATO CHIEF SAYS 4 MISSING US SOLDIERS WERE KILLED: AP

The incident of the missing personnel and military search operation was first reported by Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT and subsequently picked up in European media. They first disappeared on Tuesday, along with a military vehicle, and belonged to the US Army's 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division.

Scene at Belarusian border, via LRT

"A possible scene has now been identified, and a search and rescue operation is underway," the Lithuanian military said in a statement hours prior to the announcement of their deaths.

The troops had been undergoing tactical training at the time the went missing. According to The Guardian:

The Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT reported that four US soldiers and a vehicle were reported missing on Tuesday afternoon during an exercise at the General Silvestras Žukauskas training ground in Pabradė, a town located less than 10km (6 miles) from the border with Belarus.

The Belarus angle and the proximity of the border could be alarming, given the US essentially considers it an 'enemy' state given its support to the Russian side of the Ukraine war.

"A search operation is currently under way, involving military personnel, rescue services, and firefighters. Lithuanian police also have launched an investigation," US state-funded RFERL writes. According to further statements and details:

Lithuanian officials have given few details, with Gintautas Ciunis, a military spokesman, confirming only that "these are foreign soldiers."

US Army Europe and Africa on March 26 confirmed that the soldiers had gone missing, saying in a statement that they were "conducting scheduled tactical training at the time of the incident."

“I would like to personally thank the Lithuanian Armed Forces and first responders who quickly came to our aid in our search operations,” said Lt. Gen. Charles Costanza, the V Corps commanding general.

Via BBC

Lithuania has been a NATO member since 2004, and is one of the Baltic countries which has been outspoken and hawkish in condemning Moscow.

*  *  *

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US Intelligence Says Iran Is 'Not Building A Nuclear Weapon'

US Intelligence Says Iran Is 'Not Building A Nuclear Weapon'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

US intelligence agencies have reaffirmed that there’s no evidence Iran is developing nuclear weapons or that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reversed his 2003 fatwah that banned the production of weapons of mass destruction.

"The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003," Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing.

Via Associated Press

Gabbard’s comments were based on the annual threat assessment, which is released by the ODNI with input from all US intelligence agencies. The report did note that there have been more calls inside Iran to reverse the ban on nuclear weapons, which have grown in response to Israeli aggression in the region.

"In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus," the report reads.

"Khamenei remains the final decision maker over Iran’s nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons," it notes.

The threat assessment comes amid increasing US sanctions and threats of military action over Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian officials have rejected the idea of talks with the US in the face of President Trump’s "maximum pressure campaign," but have said the door is open for indirect negotiations.

The hype over Iran’s nuclear program revolves around the enrichment of some uranium at 60%, the highest level Iran has achieved but still lower than the 90% needed for weapons-grade. Iran first took the step to enrich at 60% in response to a 2021 Israeli sabotage attack against its Natanz nuclear facility, which was meant to sabotage talks between the Biden administration and Tehran.

Iran is still a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has told the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it won’t enrich uranium beyond the 60% level.

Still, more of this alarmism is coming out...

Amid increasing US and Israeli threats about its nuclear program, Iran has recently pointed out that Israel has a secret nuclear weapons stockpile, and its nuclear program is not subject to IAEA inspections since Israel is not a signatory to the NPT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 14:20

Nintendo Shares Jump After Goldman Sees Switch 2 Unlocking Dormant Users 

Nintendo Shares Jump After Goldman Sees Switch 2 Unlocking Dormant Users 

Nintendo shares in Tokyo posted their biggest gain in months after Goldman analysts Minami Munakata and Haruki Kubota resumed coverage of 11 Japanese companies in the games, entertainment, and internet sector. The analysts noted that "the global games market re-entered a growth phase since 2024" and forecasted "the number of active consoles to continue renewing fresh highs globally from 2025."

Munakata expects the near-term rollout of Nintendo Switch 2 (the successor to the Nintendo Switch) will "unlock dormant hardware and dormant users" and send "the number of active consoles to continue to renew record highs." 

"Nintendo plans to launch the Switch 2 in 2025, with details due to be announced on April 2," the analyst said, adding the reason for increased demand for Switch 2 is because of its "unique feature" that allows "and friends to play games together in person either as a home console or as a portable console." 

10 best-selling Nintendo Switch first-party titles as of Dec 2024

Munakata also pointed out that the global games industry entered into a growth phase in 2024:

Munakata reinstated coverage of Nintendo with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of ¥13,600, representing a 26% upside from Tuesday's close. Shares in Tokyo closed up 5%.

It all comes down to console growth—which is the main reason why Munakata is bullish on gaming stocks, including both platform providers and publishers:

  • Among game platformers, we recommend Sony Group (Buy), which has unique entertainment drivers such as anime streaming platform Crunchyroll in addition to its games business, and Nintendo (Buy), for which we expect a further expansion of the active user base after the launch of the Switch 2. We see scope for valuations at both to rise as the market prices in their robust fundamentals amid a supportive games market environment.

  • Among game publishers, we are Buy-rated on Bandai Namco, Capcom and Konami as beneficiaries of the favorable market environment for console + PC games, and are Sell-rated on Square Enix and Nexon, for which we consider valuations stretched amid our outlook for earnings momentum to slow.

  • We are Neutral on Oriental Land, which operates physical entertainment businesses, and on three internet sector stocks (Recruit Holdings, CyberAgent and LY Corp) in light of the market climate and limited upside/fair valuation.

Separately, the release of Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto VI later this year is expected to provide additional tailwinds for the gaming industry, which had been stuck in a rut for years but appears to have entered a renewed growth trajectory in 2024.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 13:20

"Those Are Some Really Sh*tty War Plans": Hegseth Ridicules Atlantic 'Bombshell' After Signal Chats Released

"Those Are Some Really Sh*tty War Plans": Hegseth Ridicules Atlantic 'Bombshell' After Signal Chats Released

Update(1326ET): Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has responded to the growing calls among Dems for him to step down. This is hours after The Atlantic published the fuller chat logs, alleging that he's discussing 'war plans' in an unsecure and unclassified setting - also with a journalist inadvertently added to the group chat.

Hegseth emphasized on X that there were No names. No targets. No locations. No units. No routes. No sources. No methods. And no classified information." And he said sarcastically these these make for "some really shitty war plans."

Still, this is unlikely to appease the Trump White House's enemies, who are also now claiming that national security officials 'lied' before the Senate yesterday.

* * *

The Atlantic has published the fuller chat thread from the Signal group that journalist Jeffrey Goldberg was 'inadvertently' included in. This comes after the top Trump officials involved denied that they shared secret "attack plans" in an unsecure, unclassified setting. The President has downplayed it, defending both national security adviser Mike Walz and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has called for both Hegseth Waltz to either resign or be fired from their top national security posts.

"When the stakes are this high, incompetence is not an option," Warner wrote on social media Tuesday. "Pete Hegseth should resign. Mike Waltz should resign."

And in a a letter to President Trump, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries has urged Hegseth's termination, calling him "unqualified" and a national security risk.

"The so-called secretary of defense recklessly and casually disclosed highly sensitive war plans — including the timing of a pending attack, possible strike targets and the weapons to be used — during an unclassified national security group chat that inexplicably included a reporter," Jeffries wrote. "His behavior shocks the conscience, risked American lives and likely violated the law."

The newly published messages were sent on March 15 and purport to be from an account identified as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Amid the ongoing controversy, Golberg and The Atlantic are seeking to present a 'smoking gun' of sorts.

The messages include times of strikes and the types of aircraft being used in attacks on Yemen's Houthis, who have for many months been sending drone and missiles against Red Sea shipping, including American warships and even at times a carrier.

The Atlantic wrote as part of the Wednesday release of the fuller messages, "There is a clear public interest in disclosing the sort of information that Trump advisers included in nonsecure communications channels, especially because senior administration figures are attempting to downplay the significance of the messages that were shared."

The magazine further stated, "If this text had been received by someone hostile to American interests – or someone merely indiscreet, and with access to social media – the Houthis would have had time to prepare for what was meant to be a surprise attack on their strongholds. The consequences for American pilots could have been catastrophic."

Below is a key message from the Signal group, seen among top national security officials as well as Jeffrey Goldberg: 

This Signal message shows that the U.S. secretary of defense texted a group that included a phone number unknown to him—Goldberg’s cellphone—at 11:44 a.m. This was 31 minutes before the first U.S. warplanes launched, and two hours and one minute before the beginning of a period in which a primary target, the Houthi “Target Terrorist,” was expected to be killed by these American aircraft. If this text had been received by someone hostile to American interests—or someone merely indiscreet, and with access to social media—the Houthis would have had time to prepare for what was meant to be a surprise attack on their strongholds. The consequences for American pilots could have been catastrophic.

The Hegseth text then continued:

  • “1410: More F-18s LAUNCH (2nd strike package)”
  • “1415: Strike Drones on Target (THIS IS WHEN THE FIRST BOMBS WILL DEFINITELY DROP, pending earlier ‘Trigger Based’ targets)”
  • “1536 F-18 2nd Strike Starts – also, first sea-based Tomahawks launched.”
  • “MORE TO FOLLOW (per timeline)”
  • “We are currently clean on OPSEC”—that is, operational security.
  • “Godspeed to our Warriors.”

Shortly after, Vice President J. D. Vance texted the group, “I will say a prayer for victory.”

And more from the 'debrief' portion or aftermath of what was apparently the first round of strikes:

At 1:48 p.m., Waltz sent the following text, containing real-time intelligence about conditions at an attack site, apparently in Sanaa: “VP. Building collapsed. Had multiple positive ID. Pete, Kurilla, the IC, amazing job.” Waltz was referring here to Hegseth; General Michael E. Kurilla, the commander of Central Command; and the intelligence community, or IC. The reference to “multiple positive ID” suggests that U.S. intelligence had ascertained the identities of the Houthi target, or targets, using either human or technical assets.

Six minutes later, the vice president, apparently confused by Waltz’s message, wrote, “What?”

At 2 p.m., Waltz responded: “Typing too fast. The first target – their top missile guy – we had positive ID of him walking into his girlfriend’s building and it’s now collapsed.”

Vance responded a minute later: “Excellent.” Thirty-five minutes after that, Ratcliffe, the CIA director, wrote, “A good start,” which Waltz followed with a text containing a fist emoji, an American-flag emoji, and a fire emoji. The Houthi-run Yemeni health ministry reported that at least 53 people were killed in the strikes, a number that has not been independently verified.

Fresh reaction from Vice President JD Vance:

The Atlantic, after coming under attack from people within the US administration, has urged, "People should see the texts in order to reach their own conclusions."

* * *

But this is ultimately the bigger issue which very few are talking about, as Washington embarks on more military adventurism in the Middle East...

The most "DC" thing ever is to reflexively twist the Signal chat story into a scandal over "classified information" and "OPSEC," rather than a scandal over a military operation that was launched on highly dubious pretenses by people such as Hegseth, who is clearly frothing for a war to command, and communicates his desires in the most simple-minded cliches. Nobody ever applies consistent principles to the retention or transmission of "classified information," and pretending to care about the sacrosanct nature of such information above all else is just standard DC pablum.

And...

Above: We present to you... the bigger, actual scandal.

*  *  *

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5Y Auction Tails Despite Stellar Foreign Demand

5Y Auction Tails Despite Stellar Foreign Demand

Hot on the heels of yesterday's stellar 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5 year paper in an auction which may not have been quite as impressive at first sight, but which was nonetheless just as solid when taking a closer look below the surface.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.100%, down from 4.123% last month and the lowest since September; however, it also tailed the When Issued 4.095% by 0.5bps, the first tailing 5Y auction since October.

The bid to cover was also a bit on the light side, sliding from 2.42 in February to 2.33, the lowest since May 2024.

But this is where the weakness ended, because the internals were probably the strongest since middle 2024: Indirects were awarded 75.84%, the highest since October and well above the six auction average of 69.3%. And with Directs dropping to just 10.97%, which was the lowest since last October, and well below the 18.9% recent average. This left 13.2% to Dealers, up from 10.6% in February and the highest since, you guessed it, October.

Overall, the optics of the auction were not very strong - despite the stellar foreign demand - and the market reacted accordingly,pushing the 10Y yield higher by about 1bp near session highs on the break. Which is notable because the stock market is dumping and one would expect a rotation out of equities and into rates, but we are certainly not seeing that today.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 13:16

Columbia Student Protester Sues Trump Admin After Permanent Legal Status Revoked

Columbia Student Protester Sues Trump Admin After Permanent Legal Status Revoked

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Columbia University student filed a lawsuit on March 24 against President Donald Trump and top administration officials, seeking to block any potential deportation efforts over her participation in pro-Palestinian protests.

In this file photograph, police use a special vehicle to enter Hamilton Hall which was occupied by protesters at Columbia University in New York City on April 30, 2024. Caitlin Ochs/Reuters

Those protests had been described the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as “pro-Hamas.”

Yunseo Chung, 21, a South Korean national who moved from South Korea to the United States with her parents when she was aged 7, filed the complaint after her permanent resident status was revoked.

The lawsuit states that Chung was involved in pro-Palestinian protests—sparked by the conflict in Gaza—at Columbia University but did not make public statements or hold a high-profile role in the protests.

After Chung took part in a March 5 sit-in inside an academic building at Barnard College, the New York City Police Department issued her a desk appearance ticket and released her. The university placed her on interim suspension and restricted her access following that arrest.

A few days later, federal authorities showed up at her parents’ house to search for her and said that her legal status had been revoked. An ICE official also issued an administrative arrest warrant for Chung and searched her dorm, the lawsuit stated.

Chung has not yet been arrested, according to her attorneys. In her lawsuit, Chung called ICE’s actions an “unprecedented and unjustifiable assault” on her First Amendment rights.

She alleged that ICE’s actions were part of “attempted U.S. government repression of constitutionally protected protest activity and other forms of speech.”

The complaint also accused Trump administration officials of trying to use immigration enforcement “as a bludgeon to suppress speech that they dislike, including Ms. Chung’s speech.”

“Officials at the highest levels of the federal government have made clear that they intend to use immigration enforcement to punish noncitizens who speak out in support of Palestinians and Palestinian rights, or who are perceived to have engaged in such speech,” she stated in the lawsuit.

A DHS spokesperson alleged that Chung engaged in concerning conduct, including when she was arrested during the sit-in at Barnard College that DHS termed “pro-Hamas.”

The DHS spokesperson did not elaborate further on the specifics of the conduct in question but said Chung was “sought for removal proceedings under the immigration laws” and will have a chance to present her case before an immigration judge.

Chung’s lawyers have filed a motion seeking a temporary restraining order to prevent Chung from being deported or detained while the legal case is ongoing.

The Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights of the San Francisco Bay Area (LCCRSF), which filed the lawsuit and motion on behalf of Chung, said that without the restraining order, Chung could face “harsh detention conditions” that could cause her “significant trauma,” disrupt her studies, and limit her access to legal counsel.

“Speech concerning political change receives the highest level of protection under the First Amendment, which the Supreme Court for nearly a century has interpreted to protect noncitizens,” LCCRSF said in a statement.

The Epoch Times reached out to Chung’s attorneys for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Protests erupted at colleges across the United States, including at Columbia University, after the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which prompted the Israeli military to launch a counter-offensive against Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

Trump issued a statement on his social media platform, Truth Social, earlier this month, warning that colleges that allow “illegal protests” could risk losing federal funding. The president also said that foreign students who engaged in such activities could face deportation.

“Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came,“ Trumps stated. ”American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on on the crime, arrested.”

Tom Ozimek and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 13:00

Pro-Kamala Harris Tech Titan Admits Democrats Destroyed California

Pro-Kamala Harris Tech Titan Admits Democrats Destroyed California

California's decline has grown so stark that even steadfast Democratic allies can no longer deny the truth: the state's extreme left-wing policies have plunged it into chaos.

Aaron Levie, founder and CEO of Box, has joined the chorus of voices condemning the Democratic Party’s mismanagement of California, asserting that the party’s entire political apparatus demands a complete overhaul. Levie, who endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, made the pointed remarks during an interview with co-founder and former Lattice CEO, Jack Altman.

"We live in California. It should be like the greatest place on Earth on every dimension. How do you beat this weather? You've completely created the atmosphere of every major tech company,” Levie explained. You have Stanford, Berkeley, Caltech. You have institutions and all the venture capital. You're sitting on this incredible asset and then literally you can't make it affordable to live here. That's just insane.”

“That's totally insane and that is 100% due to the bureaucracy of our state. That's basically a Democrat problem,” the Box CEO added. “Democrats can't out message that with their policy views because their policy views are in many cases just the wrong policy views. You actually just have to build and you have to create an environment where you can build things.”

Levie concluded his critique by urging a “reset” for the Democrats.

California’s affordability crisis has reached a critical juncture, with soaring housing costs, stagnant wages, and rising living expenses pushing many residents to the brink.

In major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, median home prices have skyrocketed beyond $1 million—Redfin reports $1.35 million in San Francisco and $1.05 million in Los Angeles as of February 2025—far outpacing the national average of $371,200 according to Zillow, while rents consume a disproportionate share of income for working families, with the California Budget and Policy Center noting over 50% of renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing.

Coupled with high taxes (the Tax Foundation pegs California’s tax burden at 11.5% of income in 2025), steep utility rates (CPUC data shows electricity at 30 cents per kWh), and grocery prices outstripping inflation (a USDA report cites a 19% rise since 2020), the state has become a challenging place for all but the wealthiest to thrive.

This economic squeeze has fueled an exodus of middle- and low-income households—the U.S. Census Bureau recorded a net loss of 500,000 residents from 2020–2024—exacerbating labor shortages and straining local economies, as the Public Policy Institute of California highlights in its 2025 labor market analysis.

Levie's sober talk about the Democrats aligns with growing voter dissatisfaction, as many within the party are unhappy with it's direction since President Donald Trump's reelection to the White House.

A plurality of voters (40%) believe the Democratic Party has no clear strategy for countering Trump, according to a survey by the liberal firm Blueprint, first reported by POLITICO. Another 24% said the party does have an ineffective plan.

If only Californians could convince their governor-turned-podcaster Gavin Newsom to do something about it. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 12:55

Russia Winning In Ukraine, Continually Gaining Leverage: US Intel Community

Russia Winning In Ukraine, Continually Gaining Leverage: US Intel Community

The US government in its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community - which was just released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in conjunction with top officials’ testimony at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing Tuesday - has admitted that Ukraine's battlefield prospects are fading amid the onslaught of superior Russian forces.

Currently, Moscow has "seized the upper hand" in the war over the past year, the fresh assessment warns, and "is on a path to accrue greater leverage" as peace talks with Washington are underway.

"Even though Russian President [Vladimir] Putin will be unable to achieve the total victory he envisioned when initiating the large-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia retains momentum as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages,” the report states.

Via Getty Images

"This grinding war of attrition will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow," it continues.

This should come as no surprise to any objective observer; however, what is surprising is the huge amount of Russian losses estimated by US intelligence. While there's no way of verifying such information, the report claims that there are over 750,000 dead and wounded on the Russian side.

Still, the intel community emphasizes the Russian military machine's ability to quickly replenish personnel while growing its industrial capacity to continually support the war.

On the prospect for achieving a quick peace settlement, the report notes that both Russian and Ukrainian leadership "probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement."

"For Russia, positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity."

"Regardless of how and when the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s current geopolitical, economic, military, and domestic political trends underscore its resilience and enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence, and global interests," it adds.

But interestingly, in her Tuesday testimony before the Senate Intelligence Community, director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard characterized Russia as a "formidable competitor" but stopped short of calling Moscow an adversary, which former Biden intel officials frequently did.

* * *

A note from UBS [emphasis ZH]...

US Intelligence On Russia Nuclear Capacity, China And Taiwan

The US annual threat assessment from the Director of National Intelligence carries warnings about Russia and China. The 2025 edition warned that Russia is developing a satellite capable of carrying a nuclear weapon. It said that China was making aggressive efforts to assert its sovereignty in the south and east China seas, and seems likely to increase its economic pressure on Taiwan.

Indeed the report warned that China represented the most comprehensive and robust military threat to US security. The report claimed that both Russia and China are eyeing up Greenland for natural resources.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 12:40

It Is Not "Karma", It's A Crime: The Curious Silence Over Political Violence In New York

It Is Not "Karma", It's A Crime: The Curious Silence Over Political Violence In New York

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Yesterday, there was a curious aspect to the coverage of the video of a woman attacking a young man for wearing a MAGA hat. Ignored by many mainstream outlets, conservative news sites described the woman as a “Karen” who got “karma.”

The video below was viewed as a funny payback as the woman fell while chasing the man from the New York subway car. However, the incident is not karma but a crime. This is political violence perpetrated on the New York subway, and yet no one in New York seems to be calling for the arrest of this person.

If you watch the video, the woman starts by harassing the young man in the subway car. She is shown yelling, “If you f—-ing voted for Trump, you’re a racist!… He’s a racist!”

One can dismiss the verbal attacks as an exercise of free speech. However, she then repeatedly grabs and strikes the young man as she chases him from the car:

I get the sense of karma as the woman does a face plant on the subway platform while trying to continue her attack on the fleeing individual.

However, this should be neither funny nor acceptable. It is political violence and the woman appears to believe that she has a license in New York City to assault anyone wearing a MAGA hat.

This is where what I call “rage rhetoric” turns into political violence. As I wrote in my book, “The indispensable Right,” that is the curious aspect of rage:

“What few today want to admit is that they like it. They like the freedom that it affords, the ability to hate and harass without a sense of responsibility. It is evident all around us as people engage in language and conduct that they repudiate in others. We have become a nation of rage addicts; flailing against anyone or anything that stands in opposition to our own truths.

Like all addictions, there is not only a dependency on rage but an intolerance for opposing views. The difference between rage and reason is often one’s own views. If one agrees with underlying grievance, rage is viewed as passion or justified fury at injustice. If one disagrees with those views, it takes on a more threatening and unhinged quality. We seem to spend much of our time today raging at each other. Despite the amplification of views on both sides, there is also an increasing intolerance for opposing views. Those views are treated as simply harmful and offensive—and, therefore, intolerable. Indeed, to voice free speech principles in a time of rage is to invite the rage of the mob.”

There should be zero tolerance for political violence like this on New York subways. Answer me this: if this was a man chasing and assaulting a woman from a subway car for wearing a Harris-Walz hat, would there be the same relative silence in terms of an investigation and criminal charges?

When this person moved from verbal assaults to actual physical assaults, it became a crime, not karma.

The problem is that New York only has an assault law, not a battery law. You can pursue battery as a civil tort in New York, but few Trump supporters would have faith in receiving a fair hearing before a New York jury on such a case.

The New York assault law allows for third degrees of assault charges. However, even the lowest charge of assault in the third degree requires that the individual intentionally or recklessly causes physical injury to another person.

§ 120.00 Assault in the third degree.

A person is guilty of assault in the third degree when:
1. With intent to cause physical injury to another person, he causes such injury to such person or to a third person; or
2. He recklessly causes physical injury to another person; or
3. With criminal negligence, he causes physical injury to another person by means of a deadly weapon or a dangerous instrument.
Assault in the third degree is a class A misdemeanor.

This could be established by the fact that she appears to strike the victim. However, it is vague and prosecutors could claim that the touching was insufficient to bring a viable case.

There is also criminal harassment under Penal § 240.26:

§ 240.26 Harassment in the second degree.

A person is guilty of harassment in the second degree when, with intent to harass, annoy or alarm another person:
1. He or she strikes, shoves, kicks or otherwise subjects such other person to physical contact, or attempts or threatens to do the same; or
2. He or she follows a person in or about a public place or places; or
3. He or she engages in a course of conduct or repeatedly commits acts which alarm or seriously annoy such other person and which serve no legitimate purpose.
…
Harassment in the second degree is a violation.

I have always had qualms about some of this language in terms of vagueness and free speech, particularly subsection 3. However, subsection 1 clearly applies to physical assaults for the purpose of harassment.

The point is that police have the ability to charge this type of political violence. Yet, there is nothing but crickets from Democratic New York politicians and prosecutors. A video shows a citizen being struck and chased from the subway for wearing a MAGA hat and it is either ignored or treated as another humorous event on the New York subway system.

When did political violence become just a cost of riding the subway for conservatives or libertarians? The lack of outrage shows how this age of rage has dulled our senses to such extreme conduct. This is about conduct not speech. When this person went from raving to assault, she crossed over into the criminal code. The problem is that such protections are only meaningful if New York prosecutors and police are prepared to enforce them.

I hope that the NYPD will take this seriously and announce a search for this culprit. Otherwise, the enforcement of the criminal code becomes little more than a matter of fleeting karma.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 12:20

Spot The Odd Regional Fed GDP Forecast Out

Spot The Odd Regional Fed GDP Forecast Out

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds’ Nowcast economic forecasts predict continued economic growth in the first quarter.

Confused?

This article explores the GDPNow and Nowcast models to understand the recent forecast divergences. A better understanding of the two models helps us appreciate the current state of the economy and, therefore, better estimate the first quarter GDP. Importantly, it shows that investor angst over an imminent recession may be unwarranted.

As of March 24, 2025, these are the current forecasts for the three models:

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: -1.80%

  • St. Louis Fed Nowcast: +2.25%

  • New York Fed Nowcast: +2.72%

Forecasting Accuracy

Before reviewing the differences in the models, it’s worth viewing historical data to see how well GDPNow and Nowcast forecast GDP. GDPNow and Nowcast update weekly, although, at times, GDPNow has two updates per week. For the analysis below, we only use the final, not interim, estimates for a comparison to GDP

We do not chart the New York Fed Nowcast as there is insufficient data. The y-axis is truncated as the wild economic swings in 2020 made it hard to appreciate the other data. The bar chart beneath the line graph shows the quarterly differences between the forecasts and actual GDP.

Both models have underestimated the GDP for the better part of the last four years. Since 2022, the St. Louis Nowcast has been short by 1.02% on average, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow has been .44% below, on average. During the pre-pandemic years, the Nowcast ran almost half a percent above GDP on average, while GDPNow was about a quarter of a percent below average.

The bottom line is that the models have flaws. While they are not statistically great estimators of GDP, they are still extremely valuable. It’s important to appreciate that the data calculation underlying GDP is incredibly complex and often revised numerous times after the models’ estimates are final.

Lastly, encapsulating a nation’s economic activity in one number is impossible. Thus, any model trying to forecast GDP is bound to have problems.  

With that, let’s look at the two types of models and assess their strengths and weaknesses.

GDPNow

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow uses a bridge equation approach using the same data the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses to calculate its 13 GDP subcomponents. The term bridge equation refers to regression analysis and other statistical tools that link data being released with different time frequencies to predict the quarterly GDP.

The data in the model mimics the methodology used by the BEA. It can be thought of as a running GDP calculation.

The data feeding the model is not predicted; it’s actual data. Therefore, GDPNow estimates at the beginning of a quarter are based on limited data and can result in volatile forecasts. For example, GDPNow fell from +2.5% to -1.8%, solely on the net trade balance data in late February. While it is volatile early in periods, it does tend to produce more accurate forecasts than Nowcast after the quarter ends.

The graph below shows that GDPNow has been in a nearly 7% range just since the beginning of February.

Nowcast

The St. Louis and New York Fed Nowcasts are dynamic factor models. This means they use a lot of economic data and statistical models to determine the relationship of said data to economic GDP. Unlike GDPNow, Nowcast uses data that is not included in the BEA GDP calculations. The large amount of data helps smooth out its estimate. However, while it may be more accurate and less volatile during the quarter, its final estimates are more error-prone than GDPNow’s.

Pros/Cons Table

The following table summarizes the pros and cons of each model.

Which Is Better?

That is a tricky question to answer. They both serve a purpose for those assessing current economic activity.

As we currently see with GDPNow, its forecast can be highly volatile at the beginning of a quarter. However, it is based on the same data that will feed the BEA. In volatile quarters like the current one, it’s best to take the GDPNow forecast with a grain of salt until two months of data are in the books.

The Nowcast forecasts use a much wider array of data; therefore, they’re often more stable. However, their ending forecasts tend to be worse than GDPNow. That said, changes in the Nowcast models throughout the quarter are more telling of trend changes.

Summary

We rely on both models as they provide insight and a more balanced view. Relying on only one model can produce a flawed opinion. For instance, GDPNow warns that GDP could be below zero if specific figures, like the trade balance, remain skewed for the remainder of the month. However, the Nowcast models inform us that the broader economy is generally in good shape. If Nowcast starts rapidly catching down to GDPNow, our economic concern will rise appreciably.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 11:45

US Treasury Could Default As Soon As August, CBO Warns

US Treasury Could Default As Soon As August, CBO Warns

Earlier this week we pointed out the striking plunge in the Treasury's cash balance which had averaged around $800 billion for the past 18 months, and which plunged by $480 billion in the past month.

Regular readers are aware of the reason for this plunge: ever since the US hit the debt ceiling in the last days of the Biden administration, the US Treasury has been unable to issue new debt and so has been forced to draw down its cash to fund day to day operations.

Obviously, there is a limit to how much longer this can continue: after all, once the cash balance hits 0, the Treasury will have to start prioritizing payments, and eventually, it may even have to delay payments of interest or repayments of principal... better known as default.

Which brings us to the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office published this morning which warned that the federal government could run out of enough money to pay all of its bills on time as soon as August if lawmakers fail to raise or suspend the debt limit, to wit:

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025. The projected exhaustion date is uncertain because the timing and amount of revenue collections and outlays over the intervening months could differ from CBO’s projections. (source)

On Monday, the Bipartisan Policy Center said that according to public data the Treasury will be forced to start defaulting on obligations sometime between mid-July and early October.

The CBO also cautioned that if the government’s borrowing needs are "significantly greater than CBO projects, the Treasury’s resources could be exhausted in late May or sometime in June, before tax payments due in mid-June are received or before additional extraordinary measures become available on June 30."

The date is uncertain because of the unpredictable nature of tax receipts, and Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, said earlier this month that it could come as early as mid-May.

Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners, wrote in a Monday note to clients that an earlier "x date" would be beneficial to House Republicans and those rooting for the Trump tax plan to be initiated in a single piece of legislation as soon as possible.

The Treasury Department has been using special accounting maneuvers since Jan. 21 to avoid breaching the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling, which kicked in at the start of the year. But the department has yet to offer specific guidance on when those measures will be exhausted.

"If Republicans cannot pass their tax bill before the debt ceiling must be raised, then it will need to be handled separately, which would require Democratic support," according to Brian Gardner, policy analyst at Stifel, said in a Monday note to clients.

President Trump and Republicans are attempting to pass a more than $4 trillion extension of the 2017 individual tax cuts, the benefits of which went mainly to wealthy Americans, according to a range of analyses. The president also wants to include more politically palatable changes - like ending taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits - which could balloon the cost to more than $11 trillion over 10 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

To enact these cuts, the GOP is relying on a process called budget reconciliation, which enables the bill to pass the Senate with just 50 votes, according to that chamber's internal rules. They could use that bill to also raise the debt ceiling simultaneously, but many congressional Republicans want to avoid cosigning trillions of dollars in new debt without the political cover of bipartisan support.

House Republicans want to move quickly to pass a tax cut - paid for in part by potentially unpopular cuts to Medicaid - put a win on the board for President Trump and hope that any political blowback subsides before the midterm elections in November 2026.

"Senate Republicans are not particularly interested in hiking the debt ceiling via reconciliation," Treyz wrote, adding that Republicans in the upper chamber "are more than comfortable taking all year to write their tax bill."

The Senate GOP caucus doesn't feature the same proportion of ideologically driven members who are as concerned about cutting spending as they are cutting taxes, Treyz noted. Senate Republicans are meeting this week to determine whether they can forge ahead with a tax plan that features much smaller cuts to Medicaid and other programs.

"If Republicans cannot pass their tax bill before the debt ceiling must be raised, then it will need to be handled separately, which would require Democratic support," warned Stifel's Gardner.

Under that scenario, Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will be under intense pressure to enact concessions, after facing blowback from the Democratic base following Senate Democrats' decision to allow a government-funding bill to pass earlier this month, Gardner said.

That could set up a scenario where intense brinksmanship is seen as politically necessary for both sides, and reignite a debate over whether the Treasury can prioritize interest payments to Treasury bondholders while holding back payments for other federal obligations. "If such a scenario plays out ... that will increase market volatility," according to Gardner.

Battle lines are already being drawn on the issue, with House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar telling reporters Tuesday that when it comes to the debt ceiling, "nothing should be given away for free."

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 11:25

US Supreme Court Declines Appeal In Youth-Led Climate Change Case

US Supreme Court Declines Appeal In Youth-Led Climate Change Case

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court on March 24 declined to hear an appeal in a lawsuit led by minors that alleged the U.S. government has unconstitutionally deprived the children of rights to life and liberty by causing climate change to worsen.

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Feb. 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Justices in an unsigned decision denied certiorari to a petition from Kelsey Cascadia Rose Juliana and 20 other minors. No justices offered an explanation for the decision.

Plaintiffs sued the government in 2015, alleging that the U.S. government for decades “has known that carbon dioxide (‘CO2’) pollution from burning fossil fuels was causing global warming and dangerous climate change, and that continuing to burn fossil fuels would destabilize the climate system on which present and future generations of our nation depend for their wellbeing and survival.”

Actions taken despite that knowledge, including the approval of a liquid natural gas terminal in Oregon, endangered the youth, the suit said.

In a split decision, a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit panel decided in 2020 that the relief the plaintiffs sought, including an order mandating the government develop a plan to phase out fossil fuel emissions, “is beyond our constitutional power.” The court instructed U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken to dismiss the case.

Aiken declined, allowing plaintiffs to amend their complaint. In 2023, she ruled in favor of the minors, finding that plaintiffs had adequately alleged that their constitutional rights were being infringed by the government’s actions. “The judiciary is capable and duty-bound to provide redress for the irreparable harm government fossil fuel promotion has caused,” the judge said at the time.

The Ninth Circuit in 2024 again sided with the government, upholding the 2020 ruling and telling Aiken to dismiss the litigation.

Plaintiffs lodged a petition with the Supreme Court, asking justices to intervene. That led to Monday’s denial.

“Ultimately, we didn’t get the decision we wanted today, but we’ve had many wins along the way,” Miko Vergun, one of the plaintiffs, said in a statement. “For almost ten years, we’ve stood up for the rights of present and future generations, demanding a world where we can not only survive, but thrive. We’ve faced extreme resistance by the federal government, yet we’ve never wavered in our resolve. All great movements have faced obstacles, but what sets them apart is the perseverance of the people behind them. We’ve shown the world that young people will not be ignored, and I’m incredibly proud of the impact Juliana v. United States has made.”

Plaintiffs say their case helped influence other cases that had resulted in positive rulings, including the 2024 Montana Supreme Court ruling that found the state violated residents’ constitutional right to a clean environment by issuing permits for oil, gas, and coal projects without considering impacts on the environment.

The U.S. Department of Justice welcomed the Supreme Court’s rejection of the plaintiffs in the Oregon case.

“For nearly a decade, lawyers for the plaintiffs in the Juliana case have tied up the United States in litigation, persisting even after the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals twice instructed the case to be dismissed because the plaintiffs lack Article III standing,” acting Assistant Attorney General Adam Gustafson said in a statement. “The U.S. Supreme Court’s cert denial brings this long saga to a conclusion.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 11:05

WTI Tops $70 - 3-Week Highs - After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

WTI Tops $70 - 3-Week Highs - After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices are higher this morning (with WTI topping $70 for the first time in three weeks) following an across the board inventory draw reported by API overnight. Additionally, concerns over supply strained by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are also supporting the commodity.

"Although the immediate market impact might be minimal, apart from supporting additional short covering from underinvested hedge funds, this action indicates a definite change, potentially signalling the White House's willingness to sacrifice low oil prices to achieve wider strategic objectives-isolating Iran and Venezuela and increasing pressure on China," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted.

The upside for oil prices from the U.S. actions is likely limited by coming supply additions as OPEC+ will begin to return 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts in 18 monthly tranches starting in April, while supply from countries outside of the cartel are also on the rise.

Will this morning's official data confirm the API drawdowns...

API

  • Crude -4.60mm (-2.50mm exp)

  • Cushing -600k

  • Gasoline -3.3mm

  • Distillates -1.3mm

DOE

  • Crude -3.34mm (-2.50mm exp) - biggest draw since Dec 2024

  • Cushing -755k

  • Gasoline -1.45mm

  • Distillates -421k

The official data confirmed API"s report - with drawdowns across all cohorts with crude stocks dropping most since mid-December...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the 286k barrel addition to the SPR, total crude inventories still tumbled notably...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production pushed back near record highs as drill-baby-drill prompts a pick up in rig counts...

Source: Bloomberg

Is Trump cracking down on Iran and Venezuela to make more room for US production?

WTI topped $70 for the first time in three weeks ahead of the DOE data...

Energy appears to be attracting investors fleeing the problem areas of the market, like tech and consumer discretionary stocks. 

Being the "best house on a bad block" can lead to outperformance, but in this case it looks fleeting.

The main stocks still tend to trade with oil prices, which look shaky. Starting next month, OPEC and its allies will start to restore some production that they had been holding off the market to boost prices. Even Goldman Sachs, which has been steadily bullish about oil prices, is less upbeat.

With "recession risks rising and elevated spare capacity, medium term risks to our price forecast remain to the downside," wrote analyst Callum Bryce.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 10:36

Globalization As We Knew It, Is Over

Globalization As We Knew It, Is Over

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The signal and "What's that noise overhead?"

As discussions over who said what over Signal swirled among US politicians and journalists -- on Signal -- US consumer inflation expectations leaped to 6.2% y-o-y, which is hardly the anchored level the Fed keeps telling us is the signal they are receiving. Worse, prices paid in the Philly Fed services survey hit 36, the highest since November 2023, with a plunge in activity to -32.5, the lowest since May 2020 in Covid lockdown. In other words, sinking like an anchor. As is a lot else.

The US insists a Russia-Ukraine Black Sea ceasefire has been agreed, lifting restrictions on Russian agri and fertiliser exports in response, even as Russia says it first wants the full lifting of sanctions on its banks in SWIFT, which would require EU approval. If that’s forthcoming, where does it leave EU statecraft: buying Russian gas again, or --sarcasm-- Russian weapons? If Europe says no, what if the US is even more incentivized to just leave and leave Europe the bill, as we saw from that Signal chat? Worse, reports also have US intel saying Russia and Ukraine may prefer a longer war to a quick settlement unsatisfying to either; the US also still sees a risk that Russia may resort to nuclear weapons. In which case, it’s on Europe again.

One point that didn’t get enough emphasis in the “make Europe pay for the Houthis” hoo-ha was that EU strategic autonomy is about more than just guns for Ukraine: it also needs a blue-water navy equal to its global trade ambitions. As we’d warned in our recent report on EU economic statecraft, even the 1.5% of GDP fiscal space for defence spending just agreed isn’t enough if geopolitics isn’t helpful, e.g., requiring an EU Army, Airforce, and Navy all at once.  

The US has this military statecraft power, and there’s been a bomber build-up in Diego Garcia, a base for past strikes on the Middle East, which looks more than needed for the Houthis. That doesn’t leave much to the imagination in terms of potential targets. What does is if this is the Ukraine-for-Iran ‘Noxin’ strategy or just a deliberate US signal to Tehran. Relatedly, local word is the US remains deadly serious about a Saudi-Israel peace deal, and soon, and has conveyed that re: time limits on new fighting in Gaza.

VP Vance is also going to visit a US military base in Greenland on Friday, following his wife’s tourism lead, which some local politicians call “aggressive.” Given Greenland’s small population and military, if enough White House staff visit, and stay, the power balance there would already be tipped. The signalling here should be clear too.  

In US economic statecraft, we are waiting to see if the 25% additional tariff on those who buy oil from Venezuela is implemented next week. It’s hard to prove this is happening given such oil is blended offshore to disguise its origins, but the customers are known. Indeed, the US can still choose to add 25% on China on top of the recent 10% + 10% and the pre-existing 25% in places because it says it’s buying Venezuelan oil – and the statecraft messages will be clear: 1) “China”; 2) Monroe Doctrine; 3) “Energy dominance.”

Meanwhile, more market attention is on US trade actions versus Canada and Mexico, despite our latest global strategy piece, “Fortress America”, arguing the headline-grabbing statements we are getting there could actually be about China if one thinks about strategically.

Also note the US just added around 70 Chinese entities to its export control blacklist to prevent them helping Chinese AI and military development.

Moreover, the White House nominated an ex-navy staunch advocate for rebuilding the US merchant marine to lead the US Maritime Administration MARAD, suggesting more impetus towards US shipbuilding despite industry complaints about the USTR’s proposed port fees on Chinese-built and operated ships, and quotas for carrying US exports on US-flagged, crewed, and built vessels. (More USTR feedback sessions will be held on that today.)

On things fiscal:

  • President Trump signed an Executive Order enabling the Treasury to modernize its payments systems to reduce waste, fraud and abuse (and another making US election day just that). Naturally, both will end up in court.
  • Australia’s budget has just seen pre-election tax cuts and populist spending increases, such as more energy rebates; and no sign of any economic statecraft telling us what its GDP is *for*, other than ‘trying to win an election’. Aussie monthly CPI today was slightly weaker than expected at 2.4% y-o-y headline and 2.7% trimmed mean, which despite being way above the Reserve Bank’s 2% target, and against an expansionary budget, and signs of rising global inflation, and looming tariffs, naturally had some cock-a-hoop at the idea of, you guessed it, “Rate cuts!”. After all, what is any national GDP for if not its property market?
  • The UK will today have a gloomy Spring Budget Statement filled with austerity, because “the world has changed.” Yes - largely towards military Keynesianism elsewhere, if not in the UK for all the recent Churchillian narratives. (And, meanwhile, an apparently existential UK-EU defence agreement is being held by over French demands over fishing rights in UK waters. It smells fishy, but it’s apparently true.)

Summing things up, HSBC says "globalization as we knew it is over", news to those thinking asset prices go as high as smoothly as they used.  Showing politics and markets as we knew them are certainly over too in some respects, the Trump family are offering a stablecoin backed by US Treasuries to go with their meme coins backed by their surname.

More seriously, the head of the US Council for Foreign Relations argues in Foreign Affairs that ‘China Has Already Remade the international System’:

"From 2009 to 2017, I served first as deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs and then as US trade representative. During that time, I consistently warned my Chinese counterparts that the benign international environment that had enabled China’s success would disappear unless Beijing modified its predatory economic policies. Instead, China largely maintained its course of action. If anything, it doubled down on its approach… Without any semblance of reciprocity, the relationship deteriorated… Washington may have forged the open, liberal rules-based order, but China has defined its next phase: protectionism, subsidization, restrictions on FDI, and industrial policy. To argue that the US must reassert its leadership to preserve the rules-based system it established is to miss the point. China’s nationalist state capitalism now dominates the international economic order. Washington is already living in Beijing’s world… Washington having failed to convince Beijing to change its predatory economic policies or to move forward with an alternative trading bloc to counterbalance China, was left with one option: the US had to become more like China."

However, Branko Milanovic in this week’s ‘What comes after globalisation?’ qualifies as follows: in the US, the emerging statecraft pattern is domestic neoliberalism and external mercantilism, while in China the model is domestic mercantilism and external neoliberalism.

What is Europe’s proposed path then? So far, the signals aren’t clear even as the potential noises over its head are. Muddling through piecemeal style without a conceptual grand macro strategy, or a military one, is hardly ideal. Things may have to change much more than people think.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 10:25

Pentagon Kills Off HR IT Project After 780% Budget Overrun, Years Of Delays

Pentagon Kills Off HR IT Project After 780% Budget Overrun, Years Of Delays

By Brandon Vigliarolo of The Register

After blowing deadlines and budgets for years, the Pentagon has finally pulled the plug on a troubled project to overhaul its outdated civilian HR IT systems.

Like many government projects before it, the US Defense Civilian Human Resources Management System (DCHRMS) promised big things when it was kicked off nearly a decade ago. According to a memo [PDF] signed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth late last week, the program was intended to streamline a large portion of the DoD's legacy HR IT systems, but it's being axed after officials concluded pouring more funds into it would be "throwing more good taxpayer money after bad."

DCHRMS started in 2018 with a planned development timeline of one year and a budget of $36 million, "but instead it's taken eight years and is currently $280 million over budget - that's 780 percent over budget," Hegseth said in a video announcing the DCHRMS and other spending cuts. "We're not doing that anymore."

That's not to say the DoD is giving up on modernizing its civilian HR systems - the memo noted that the Pentagon still wants a new solution, with Hegseth directing officials to develop a fresh plan within 60 days to achieve the project's original goals.

While the headline item in the memo is the cancellation of DCHRMS, Hegseth ordered cuts to additional programs, contracts, and grants too.

The memo mentioned the cancellation of more than $360 million in grant programs "in areas of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion and related social programs, climate change, social science, COVID-19 pandemic response" and the like, stating these efforts were not aligned with the DoD's current priorities.

We've reached out to the Defense Department to get a more complete list of the programs being terminated, but Hegseth did single out a couple in the video. In particular, he pointed to a $6 million grant for decarbonizing the emissions from US Navy ships and a $9 million university grant to develop "equitable AI and machine learning models."

"I need lethal machine learning models," Hegseth said. "Not equitable machine learning models." 

The memo also directed the cancellation of $30 million in contracts with Gartner and McKinsey for analysis products and what Hegseth described as "unused licenses" from "external consulting services." The move echoes the ongoing scrutiny of federal consulting contracts, such as reviews of deals involving Accenture, IBM, and Deloitte.

In total, the memo states DoD is eliminating $580 million of government spending, though only $170 million will be able to be reallocated. 

Hegseth credited Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency for its ability to root out the canceled programs, which, in addition to the cuts announced at the end of last week, now totals $800 million "in wasteful spending canceled over the first few weeks" of the Pentagon's DOGE review - but it won't be the last. 

"Stay tuned," Hegseth said. "We have a lot more coming." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 09:50

23andMe Customers Panic To Delete Genetic Data

23andMe Customers Panic To Delete Genetic Data

Shortly after we published "23andMe Files for Bankruptcy, CEO Resigns — Fate of Americans' DNA Data Now in Court-Supervised Sale," the internet followed our lead on Monday morning and asked the same question. More importantly, 23andMe customers did too—frantically searching for how to delete their genetic data before a private equity firm scoops it up in a court-ordered sale.

Even MSM was forced to cover... 

Bloomberg reported that a surge of 23andMe customers overwhelmed the genetic testing startup's website on Monday, as many panicked and rushed to delete their genetic data profiles ahead of the court-ordered sale.

A 23andMe spokesperson confirmed on Tuesday that the website "experienced some issues and delays due to increased traffic" and that those problems have since been resolved.

Bloomberg spoke to one unfortunate 23andMe customer who could not delete her genetic data because of website disruptions: 

Ruthann Miller, 37, promptly received an email from 23andMe when she sought to reset her password to log in to her account, but didn't receive a "verification code" from the company that would allow her to do so, she told Bloomberg News on Tuesday.

"I've been checking my email rather frequently," Miller said. She's checked her spam folder, too, but hasn't received a code, she added.

The fear is that 23andMe's Chapter 11 reorganization and court-ordered sale could place the gigantic pool of genetic data of millions of Americans into the hands of private equity firms that will figure out some way to monetize the data.

Abe Schwab, a philosophy professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne, who has studied US genomic privacy, told Bloomberg that federal laws prohibit companies from using genetic information for health insurance or employment.

Bloomberg noted that the Justice Department stated last year that the sale of genomic data "appears common and is currently virtually unregulated."

On Monday, James O'Keefe of O'Keefe Media Group stoked maximum fears after releasing a video featuring an undercover journalist speaking with Nathaniel Johnson, a policy advisor at the US Department of the Treasury.

In the footage, Johnson suggests that 23andMe may have already sold off users' genetic data: "Do not give your information to those people [23andMe]... they sell it to other people."

Johnson explained: "There's a clause in their contract, that basically says, like, we can give your information to our shareholders. So that they can do stuff. And all of their shareholders are, like pharmaceutical companies. But some of those pharmaceutical companies are based in other countries, and those pharmaceutical companies in other countries are like the property of, like the Ministry of Defense of Russia. Or, like, owned, by China."

Read the fine print. That's the lesson of a lifetime.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/26/2025 - 09:30

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