Zero Hedge

Mapping Global Trade With New High-Frequency Data

Mapping Global Trade With New High-Frequency Data

The global economy is showing resilience despite a sharp rise in U.S. tariffs and growing uncertainty over the future of the international trading system. To provide the most up-to-date snapshot, a Goldman team led by Patrick Creuset introduced clients to a new high-frequency dataset on global trade on Thursday. The global dataset highlights continued economic momentum outside the U.S., even as U.S. trade barriers weigh on imports. 

Creuset explained that the new dataset is built on IMF Portwatch and UN Global Platform data, sourcing satellite data of 90,000 commercial vessels and generating more than 25,000 datapoints each week. With about a one-week lag, it provides a near-real-time view of global container flows. 

Global trade growth has slowed to 3% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from 4% year-to-date, but remains resilient outside the U.S., where volumes declined in August. Much of China's strength is situated in its manufacturing industry, with exports up 5% compared to a 4% increase globally. Flows are increasingly directed toward emerging markets in Latin America and Africa, while Europe is importing more from China and exporting less back. A stronger euro against the yuan supports this. 

Charts 1 through 8 provide a near-real-time snapshot of the global economy. 

Global freight markets in the second half of 2025:

  • Ocean: We see Q3 growth tracking 3% so far, with a positive skew to Asia-Europe and North-South trades. U.S. exposures will likely underperform, and we would expect U.S. trade to continue to soften into year-end given frontloading/inventory trends. Planned USTR service fees targeting Chinese-built fleets (Oct) could add a further layer of import costs and complexity. Container rates are likely to keep sliding into year-end given slowing demand, rising supply plus adverse seasonal factors.

  • Air: Has been slightly more resilient than we had anticipated going into the quarter, +3%yoy QTD (Aug) with broadly stable rates (we took our DSV Air numbers up marginally last week), possibly reflecting greater capacity discipline vs. Ocean coupled with robust Tech shipment demand. We still expect the market to soften into Q4 given well-stocked inventories, ocean overcapacity, and the end of the U.S.' global de minimis exemptions as of 29 Aug.

  • Road (Europe): Sequentially firmer, with German truck traffic +0.4%yoy QTD (Aug) after uninterrupted declines since early-22. As German infrastructure and defense-focused stimulus gets underway, Q3 25 could mark a positive cyclical inflection point.

This suggests that the popular Democratic narrative - repeated like a broken record on MSM such as CNN and MSNBC - that Trump's tariffs would wreck the global economy has, so far, been proven wrong. The data show no signs of impending doom or collapse, marking yet another major setback for the left's ability to hold a narrative for more than a day. 

The note, titled "Mapping Global Trade Close(r) to Real Time," contains more than 80 charts. We've covered only about 10% of the charts in this note. The remaining ones can be viewed by ZeroHedge Pro subscribers here

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 06:55

The Four Horsemen Of The Western Apocalypse

The Four Horsemen Of The Western Apocalypse

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Europe is plagued by a number of existential crises. Yet they are all self-inflicted—and by a dominant, therapeutic culture that embraced utopian but lethal bromides.

These suicidal wounds are now nearing the end-stage.

Indeed, they are destroying the very civilization that was soon envisioned to be heaven on earth.

The global warming hysterics could not just entertain gradual transformations away from dependencies on traditional fuels and power generation.

Instead, elites have demanded catastrophic and near-instant “net zero” mandates. That radicalism entailed transitioning to unreliable and costly solar and wind energy. Fuel and electricity prices then soared.

The green socialist elite cared little that shutdowns of nuclear, coal, natural gas, and oil power generation would cripple industry, reduce living standards, and impoverish Europe.

Germany, the once economic powerhouse of Europe, became a shell of its former self. The same efforts accelerated under the Obama and Biden administrations in the U.S.

Both administrations sought to slash new fossil fuel production and use, without regard to the costs, dangers to the economy, or deleterious effects on the middle class and poor.

Second, for the last half-century, affluent Westerners embraced the idea that there were no normative lifestyles. Often, they claimed nuclear families with 2-3 children were parochial and passé.

Children supposedly inhibited the lifestyles and aspirations of women. Larger families, we were told, unfairly burdened upscale professionals with unneeded costs and offered biased and injurious models to gays, the transgendered, and single, childless men and women.

The result is that the fertility rate plummeted in the West, particularly in Europe (1.4) and the United States (1.6), to unsustainable levels.

Academia, the media, government, and foundations promoted these ideas of “empowerment”—despite the historical evidence that societies that cannot reproduce themselves age, ossify, and finally implode.

The third horseman of the Western apocalypse was unrestricted and illegal immigration.

Again, the elites discarded a century of research and common sense that immigration into modern Western societies is only beneficial if it is legal, measured, diverse, meritocratic, and met with robust efforts of the host to integrate, acculturate, and assimilate foreigners.

The arrogant West scoffed at all that.

Instead, it destroyed borders. It welcomed in millions of impoverished and unaudited illegal aliens, many of them with little desire or ability to adopt the values of their hosts.

What followed were unsustainable social welfare entitlements, rising crime, social chaos, and growing internal strife.

The last horseman was a new tribalism, euphemistically dubbed diversity/equity/inclusion.

An elite Western class envisioned an entire set of reparatory actions for growing nonwhite populations to atone for purported prior, and sometimes ancient, sins of slavery, racism, colonialism, sexism, homophobia, and transphobia.

No matter that all of these pathologies are commonplace worldwide, only in the self-critical West was slavery first outlawed, and tribalism curtailed.

Indeed, nonwhite immigrants knew precisely why fellow non-Westerners flocked to Western nations in the millions. Only there do meritocracy, consensual government, and self-criticism ensure more prosperity, freedom, and security than in their own tribal, often sexist, religiously and ethnically chauvinistic, and statist societies.

Human nature dictates that once racial fixations for any reason normalize exemptions and advantages, then tribalism and civil strife inevitably resurface.

Self-perpetuating myths of everlasting victimhood are necessary to ensure permanent special preferences. The Western idea of the Enlightenment, that we are individuals, not tribes and collectives, free to question the world about us, is shattered.

Instead, we descend into precivilizational tribalism, predicated on our superficial appearances.

There is some hope only because the four horsemen of our apocalypse were welcomed into the West by a minority of naïve, secular, and privileged Westerners. They believed as demigods that their wealth and freedom were irreversible birthrights, that utopia was near, and that they would be exempt from any consequences of their failure.

As a remedy, the West needs to stop apologizing for its 2,500-year history and take pride in its unique European and Judeo-Christian tradition that is innately inclusive.

It does not have to be perfect to be good—only far better than the alternatives, as mass illegal immigration attests.

The West needs to resist top-down radical green bromides and assess their cost-to-benefit damage to most citizens.

Larger, multi-generational, and two-parent families are not strange but the historical lifeblood of robust civilizations.

If foreigners wish to move legally to the West, they should be reminded why they do so and thus integrate and assimilate to the hosts’ values—or stay home.

Finally, Americans especially need to speak out against anyone of any race or tribe who stereotypes and spouts hatred of others outside their tribe.

And feigned victimhood will end only when the invented victimizers say, “Sorry, enough is enough.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 06:30

How Much Caffeine Is Hiding In Your Daily Drink?

How Much Caffeine Is Hiding In Your Daily Drink?

From morning cups of tea to late-night energy drinks, caffeine has become part of daily life across the globe.

But how much is hidden in these drinks, and when does it become too much?

A Global Habit

Caffeine is the world’s most commonly consumed stimulant, present in coffee, tea, soft drinks, and energy beverages. Billions of people rely on it each day for focus or an energy boost.

Yet health authorities stress that safe limits are not universal.

Age, body size, and metabolism all affect how much caffeine the body can handle.

Children and teenagers are particularly sensitive, while most adults tolerate moderate amounts more easily.

How Popular Drinks Compare

As Visual Capitalist shows in the infographic below, the amount of caffeine in common drinks varies widely:

  • Cola (355ml): about 40mg

  • Black tea (250ml): around 50mg

  • Double espresso (60ml): 80mg

  • Instant coffee (250ml): 100mg

  • Red Bull (250ml): 80mg — about two colas or one espresso

  • Monster/Relentless (500ml): 160mg — equal to four colas or two espressos

  • Prime energy (330ml): 140mg — about three and a half colas or one and a half espressos

A single large energy drink can therefore contain as much caffeine as several cups of tea.

Children and Teenagers at Higher Risk

Health guidance around the world advises caution for younger people. Their smaller body size and developing nervous systems mean even one can of an energy drink may exceed recommended safe levels.

For teenagers, many health organisations suggest limiting caffeine to under 100mg a day — less than one can of Prime or Monster. For children, regular caffeine is often discouraged altogether.

Adults and Older People

For healthy adults, up to 400mg a day — the equivalent of four cups of coffee — is generally considered safe. But tolerance differs widely.

Older people may find that caffeine affects sleep, heart rate, or anxiety more strongly.

Why Awareness Matters

As high-caffeine energy drinks grow in popularity worldwide, experts say the public should be more aware of what is inside them. A product that looks like an ordinary soft drink can contain two or three times as much caffeine.

Knowing the numbers, health authorities suggest, is the first step to safer daily choices.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 05:45

China Continues To Import Sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG Cargoes

China Continues To Import Sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG Cargoes

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • China has become a regular importer of LNG from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, with a third cargo recently discharging at a Chinese terminal.

  • The Arctic LNG 2 export project, sanctioned by the US, EU, and UK, has resumed shipping cargoes after struggling for over a year to find buyers willing to risk secondary sanctions.

  • Two additional LNG tankers carrying supply from the sanctioned Russian project are currently en route to the Chinese port of Beihai.

China appears to have become a regular importer of liquefied natural gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia as the third cargo in two weeks has just discharged gas at a Chinese import terminal.  

 The LNG tanker Zarya, sanctioned by the United States, unloaded on Wednesday over 160,000 cubic meters of LNG from Arctic LNG 2 at the southern Chinese Beihai LNG Terminal in Guangxi, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing ship-tracking data from LSEG and Kpler. 

The Arctic LNG 2 export project roared back to life this summer, in a sign that Russia is done waiting and is now sending off loaded LNG cargoes, which could be testing the Trump Administration’s willingness to sanction Russia’s LNG customers in China. 

Arctic LNG 2 is under sanctions by the United States, the EU, and the UK, which have also blacklisted many of the LNG vessels thought to be servicing the project’s output. 

For over a year, the U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, had effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula.

The project last year came under intensifying sanctions from the United States, which put off any buyers that were previously considering buying cargoes from Arctic LNG 2.

The Russian export project struggled for more than a year to find any buyer willing to risk secondary sanctions. 

The wait ended at the end of August, when a cargo from the facility docked at a Chinese import terminal.

The Arctic Mulan LNG tanker arrived at the Beihai LNG terminal, and China received the cargo, making it the first-ever actual exported cargo out of the Russian facility. 

Now that the third LNG cargo from the sanctioned Russian project has unloaded in China, two other LNG tankers loaded with Arctic LNG supply are en route to Beihai and just a couple of days away from the Chinese port. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 05:00

Aussie Students Spend The Most Time In School, Polish Kids The Least

Aussie Students Spend The Most Time In School, Polish Kids The Least

Students in OECD countries and economies receive an average of 7,604 hours of compulsory instruction during their primary and lower secondary education.

However, as Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, a wide gap exists between countries, with students in Poland receiving an average of just 5,304 hours, compared to Australia where children must attend nearly double that at 11,000 hours.

 How Much Time Do Students Spend in the Classroom? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the United States, children spend 8,917 hours on average in compulsory classes across primary school and early secondary school.

This is according to a new report by the OECD titled Education at a Glance.

Primary education lasts six years on average across OECD countries and economies, ranging from four grades in Poland to seven in Australia and Denmark.

In the U.S., children have six school years at the primary level.

Lower secondary education lasts three years on average across the OECD member states, ranging from two years in the French Community of Belgium to six years in Lithuania.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 04:15

Duda Belatedly Confirmed That Zelensky Tried To Manipulate Poland Into War With Russia

Duda Belatedly Confirmed That Zelensky Tried To Manipulate Poland Into War With Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Former Polish President Andrzej Duda revealed in an interview in early September that Zelensky tried manipulating his country into war with Russia during November 2022’s Przewodow incident after a then-unknown missile crossed the Ukrainian border and smashed into Poland.

Duda agreed with his interlocutor that Zelensky’s claim that it was a Russian missile amounted to pressure upon Poland to respond accordingly, yet he also said that he wasn’t surprised by Ukraine wanting to drag NATO into war.

In his words, “They've been trying to drag everyone into the war from the very beginning. It's obvious, it's in their interest, and it would be best if they could drag NATO countries into the war. It's obvious they're looking for those who would actively fight on their side against the Russians. This has been happening since day one.”

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who’s since fled to Poland, claimed back then that the aforesaid view was a “Russian conspiracy theory” and “Russian propaganda”.

To Poland’s credit, it didn’t fall for this trap, which could have sparked a fast-moving sequence of events that might have spiraled into World War III. Some Russian-friendly observers like Scott Ritter saw things differently at the time, however, believing that it was Poland which sought to drag NATO into war. It’s now known that this wasn’t the case, yet the false assumptions about Poland’s intentions at the time still influence some folks’ takes about its current and future policies. Here are five background briefings:

* 16 November 2022: “Ukraine Tried To Trick NATO Into Starting World War III After It Accidentally Bombed Poland

* 16 November 2022: “Kiev Jumped The Shark After Its Foreign Minister Implied That Biden Is A Russian Propagandist

* 16 November 2022: “Ukraine Betrayed Poland’s Trust With Its Dangerous Anti-Russian Conspiracy Theory

* 16 November 2022: “The Top Five Implications Drawn From Ukraine Accidentally Bombing Poland

* 23 November 2022: “Korybko To Ritter: New Evidence Compels You To Correct Your Conclusion About Poland

There are five primary takeaways from Duda’s revelation:

1) Ukraine has been desperately attempting “since day one” to turn the special operation into a hot NATO-Russian war;

2) to that end, it’s relied on weaponized conspiracy theories such as its one about the Przewodow incident and provocations like its regular attacks against the Zaporozhyne Nuclear Power Plant;

3) Poland, NATO, and Russia have been aware of this the whole time though;

4) so none of them fell for these traps; but

5) the risk still remains.

All of this is relevant as regards the Alt-Media Community’s perception of Poland. While many might still dislike its overall foreign policy and dismantlement of Red Army monuments, it’s important to be fair in their assessments of its approach towards the Ukrainian Conflict. Poland indisputably sought to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, ergo why it helped sabotage spring 2022’s draft peace treaty and then donated its entire stockpile to Ukraine, but it never planned to get directly involved if that failed.

Duda’s successor Karol Nawrocki, who per the Polish Constitution formulates the country’s foreign policy in cooperation with the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, pledged ahead of the second round not to authorize the deployment of Polish troops to Ukraine.

He isn’t expected to go against his word amidst Poles getting fed up with Ukrainian refugees and this neighboring conflict. The most important takeaway from Duda’s revelation is therefore that Poland won’t be manipulated by Zelensky into war with Russia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 03:30

"Art Must Always Tell The Truth"

"Art Must Always Tell The Truth"

Popular artist Banksy created a graffiti mural in London depicting the current state of the UK censorship system using the courts to trample the rights of British citizens...

[SOURCE]

As 'sundance' writes at TheConservativeTreeHouse.com, it did not take long for the authorities to cover the mural and eventually attempt to remove it.

However, what remained of the artwork was the essential core of the truth.

I particularly like the fact the govt turned the CCTV camera, so they can monitor who might visit the scene of the criminal dissent.

Apparently, the British government doesn’t quite see the irony.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 02:45

Escobar: There's A New World In The Making

Escobar: There's A New World In The Making

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

History will register that the first week of September 2025 propelled the advent of the Eurasia Century to a whole new level.

That was the expectation ahead of three crucial intertwined dates: the SCO annual summit in Tianjin; the Victory Day parade in Beijing; and the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

Yet expectations were even surpassed considering the breath and scope of what just happened.

The SCO in Tianjin solidified the Chinese push for the establishment of true Global Governance - which in practice means the unceremonious burying of the “rules-based international order” that under the new US administration has metastasized into a no-rules based international chaos: essentially an ethos of “we’ll blow up the world if we are not able to control it.”

Tianjin had not only the 10 SCO full members but also 2 observers and 15 partners – with a heavy Southeast Asian presence – discussing the finer points to be observed for peaceful development. The pic of the week, if not the year or decade, was the Putin, Xi and Modi trilateral handshake: the return of the original, Primakov-coined RIC (Russia-India-China) in full force. As Professor Zhang Weiwei of Fudan University remarked in Vladivostok, the SCO is now expanding steadily in three platforms: energy; clean industries; and AI. In parallel, Central Asia is finally being seen as a “geographical blessing”, and not “a curse”.

Immediately after Tianjin, the Russia-China strategic partnership also shot up to a whole new level, as President Putin was received by President Xi at the Zhongnanhai, the official residence of the Chinese head of state, for an across-the-spectrum state of the planet recap.

The next day Beijing was resplendent under blue skies overseeing the stunning military parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Chinese victory over Japanese invasion and the Asian chapter of Nazi-fascism. That was a confident geoeconomic superpower showing off its military progress.

On the same day the Eastern Economic Forum started in Vladivostok: an unrivalled platform for discussing the surge of pan-Eurasia business.

What China has proposed, actually reiterated in Tianjin, goes way beyond the concept of wangdao, referring to an enlightened, benign power, but not a Hegemon. What could be described as the trademark motto of a Pax Sinica under Xi could be summed up as Make Trade, Not War – and for the common good, or community of a shared future”, in Beijing terminology.

SCO partners, as well as BRICS partners, fully understand that China does not intend to replace Pax Americana, which always relied on the – now aptly renamed – Department of War’s gunboat “diplomacy”. Whatever hysteria fits the West may throw – manipulating Tibet, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, South China Sea, Taiwan – won’t deviate Beijing from its civilizational inclusive path.

The birth of a new logistics order

The road from Tianjin to Vladivostok mostly evolved on three interconnected fronts; oil and gas; connectivity corridors; and massive economic development.

The collective West simply cannot get rid of its pathology of perennialy underestimating the East. For years, both BRICS and SCO were derided in Washington as irrelevant talk shops. But it’s the multilateral spirit that allows something groundbreaking like the Power of Siberia-2 to come to light.

Power of Siberia-2 was planned several years ago, but it was difficult to find consensus on the final route. Gazprom preferred Western Siberia to Xinjiang, across the Altai mountains. The Chinese wanted transit via Mongolia, straight into central China.

The Mongolian route eventually prevailed. It was decided two years ago, and in the last few weeks, the final pricing mechanism, respecting market rates. This massive geoeconomic game-changer means that the gas from the Yamal peninsula that would supply Europe via the Nord Streams will supply China.

President Putin’s expose at the plenary session in Vladivostok placed particular emphasis on energy and connectivity.

But to track the devil in the details nothing could beat the arguably two top panels at the forum.

One of them discussed the integrated development  of the Arctic and the Russian Far East, with special insights by Vladimir Panov, who not only is Rosatom’s top expert on the Arctic but also the Deputy Chairman of the State Commission on Arctic Development.

Another panel really dug deep , tracing a parallel between the origins of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), 500 years ago – when Russian diplomat Dmitry Gerasimov drew up the first draft of the Northern Sea Route and the first map of the Arctic Ocean and Muscovy coastlines - and the 21stcentury technology challenges.

This panel featured a particular striking expose by the CEO of Rosatom, Aleksey Likhachev, complemented by experts such as Sergey Vakhurov, the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Maritime Collegium. Likhachev detailed the complex shaping of an Arctic corridor, carrying mostly raw materials: a resilient transport corridor for the whole of Northeast Asia.

That’s no less than the birth of a new logistics order – think IA- based weather forecasting plus icebreakers – featuring critical Russian input.

Will Vladivostok become the next Hong Kong?

So, as Putin stressed in his presentation at the plenary session, the heart of the matter is the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor: arguably the key 21st century connectivity corridor.

Thus it’s no wonder Vladivostok’s discussions centered around the key role of nuclear energy and nuclear icebreakers in assuring stable shipping along the NSR route, side by side with environmental concerns and the trials and tribulations of securing large-scale investments in energy production, processing and infrastructure building.

All that merged with a timely discussion of the Greater Eurasia Partnership – the crux of Russian geoeconomic policy – with key inputs by Alexey Overchuk, the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s government, and the affable Suhail Khan, the Deputy Secretary-General of the SCO.

An absolutely key takeaway of all these discussions was the startling realignment being operated by Rosatom – which is simultaneously expanding business with China, India and South Korea along the ultra-strategic NSR.

That means, in essence, Russia evaluating all vectors when it comes to organizing full-scale convoy systems for 365 days a year of Arctic navigation: nothing less, once again, than a new economic and technological order.

Now couple all that with a lively discussion of how the Global South and East will be leading the new growth economy.

Sberbank’s CEO Herman Gref, for instance, disclosed that the largest Russian bank has become the second largest in transactions globally, only behind JP Morgan.

Wen Wang, from Renmin University, remarked how China is undergoing a very strong de-Americanization process, in education and tech, pushing “its own knowledge system”.

He foresees huge Russia-China cooperation potential – economic and financial, emphasizing there is a pressing necessity to open financial markets on both sides. That’s how Vladivostok could become the next Hong Kong. Several panelists at the forum observed that Vladivostok has all it takes to become a strategic center for Global South integration.

The Arctic will be at the center of possible business deals between Russians and Americans; serious discussions have been going on since March, including in the recent Putin-Trump meeting.

Amidst the colossal logistics challenges, an economic breakthrough in the Arctic, next to and within Alaska may eventually represent for the US a ticket out of an economic catastrophe. So here the Arctic - which is de facto dominated by Russia – may in the end become a privileged arena to domesticate the Empire of Chaos.

After all Russia has already built extensive, complex infrastructure in the Arctic – upgraded in real time. Mammoth ports, LNG processing, whole cities of workers and technicians, the enormous advantage of the nuclear icebreaker fleet (nine in action, with two more coming), all these advances are Russian intellectual property that can be exploited in dealing with the US.

In the end, these heady few days last week solidified The Future. Grandmaster Lavrov once again delivered the succinct version – commenting on the triple handshake of Putin, Xi and Modi: “A demonstration that three great powers, representing three great civilizations, recognize the commonality of their interests in several areas.”

That’s way more: that’s a new world in the making.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/12/2025 - 02:00

Brandon Smith: Men Of The West, We Are At War

Brandon Smith: Men Of The West, We Are At War

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

It’s a strange thing. I was writing today about the tests of brutality we endure in the western world in modern times, trying to explain why things cannot continue the way they have been for much longer, when the news hit the feeds on the assassination of Charlie Kirk. I forced myself to watch the video footage, just as I forced myself to watch the recent murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska by a black man on a train who then bragged about how he “Got that white girl”.

I witnessed leftist journalists try to hide the event and bury the story until it blew up on social media and they had no choice but to cover it. And when they did, they complained more about online treatment of the killer than they complained about the murder itself.

I have watched thousands of leftists across the web cheer for the death of that innocent girl. I have watched hundreds-of-thousands of them cheer for trans mass shooters after they killed Christian kids, just as they now cheer for the death of Charlie Kirk.

They can barely contain their glee. They blame Kirk and his beliefs as the catalyst; as if he is being punished for a crime. They say “people are fed up with right wing violence”, but where is this violence? It doesn’t exist. The claim is gaslighting on an epic level. The only violence we have seen for the past decade has been from the political left. Normally this behavior would be called terrorism.

Riots in the streets, innocent people assaulted, Christian events attacked, multiple assassination attempts and a slew of mass shootings, all from politically motivated leftists. And the only thing they can come up with is January 6th, a short lived riot which was CAUSED by Capitol Police shooting peaceful protesters with rubber bullets and tear gas.

What was Charlie Kirk’s real crime? He committed the most egregious sin there is when it comes to the political left – He told the truth without shame. For this, he was murdered.

I didn’t necessarily agree with Kirk on every issue. In particular, I think he put far too much stock in the idea that public debate would make a difference. I think it has diminishing returns. Progressives only seem to get worse with each argument they lose. They only become more unhinged, more violent. Trying to reason with such zealots is a waste of energy, but at least it gets the message out to the normies, if there are any normies left.

The reliance on public debate is part of a deeper problem within conservative and populist movements; we tend to cling to the notion that we are fighting a political battle and that this battle can be won by being the most factual, the most reasonable, the most right.

As I have always said: Leftists do not care about being right. They only care about winning.

We have been engaging in civics while the woke cult engages in sabotage, mob violence, child grooming and assassination. Conservatives are naturally reticent to abandon order or abandon the law. The political left knows this – they count on it. They know we are limited in how we fight back because we have an expectation that the system can be corrected and reformed.

The problem is that the system is infected. It’s infested by parasites. In order for social discourse to achieve anything constructive, both sides have to be patriotic. Both sides have to love their culture and country to a certain degree and want the best for the future. Leftists and globalists HATE the west. They hate the US. They want to turn it to dust. They want the memory of it erased from history. There is no level of reason or diplomacy that can dissolve their bitter psychopathy.

In other words, McCarthy was right. The left needs to go.

This is not to say that conscience and respect for order is a weakness. If we didn’t have these things then we would be no better than the progressives. My point, however, is that we need to come to grips with the reality that total war has been declared against the west and we must start acting like we are at war if our civilization is going to survive.

This is where I part ways with many of my Libertarian colleagues. This problem is not about American citizens in disagreement. This is not about the old days of polite political dysfunction. Again, this is a war, a shooting war and a mind war. I’m not interested in the constitutional rights of people who have declared war on me, my country and the very freedoms they hide behind.

If they want to burn the west to the ground to usher in their own dystopian collectivist vision, then the only logical response is to burn THEM to the ground.

For the past few years I have warned about the events that are now unfolding. In my article “Terror Attacks Kick Off In 2025 – It’s Only Going To Get Worse So Be Prepared”, published in January, I argued that:

…There is a serious risk of civil destabilization in 2025 caused by a steady series of terror attacks. Some of them might be planned by legitimate suspects while others could be fabricated by covert interests in order to stir up public fear. I would also warn specifically about far-left groups reverting to Weather Underground-like tactics in order to disrupt conservative reforms…”

After witnessing the “fiery but peaceful” activities of groups like Antifa and BLM during the 2020 riots I don’t find it hard to believe that there may also be an activist element in the US right now that’s willing to engage in infrastructure terrorism and political assassination. This is not to say that the leftists themselves are highly organized, but there is evidence that they are managed by calculating people behind the scenes.

In other words, elitist institutions can very easily use far-left actors to carry out terror attacks because leftists only need a “nudge” to go down that path. Just as many Islamic fundamentalists are so easy to nudge into mass violence…”

There are those that theorize that Kirk’s shooting is a “false flag” and that this is about sowing divisions among Americans. News Flash: We are already divided. Even without encouragement we would be divided. Too many liberty minded people make the mistake of thinking our problems stop with the globalists at the top, but they are only one part of this conflict.

The other part is at the bottom of the pyramid – The millions of progressives that want to see the world in ashes.  Ultimately it doesn’t really matter if Kirk was killed by a “lone nut” or an organized conspiracy, the end result is the same.  The lefties are still applauding.  They still want you dead.  So, they still need to be dealt with.

Before the news of the assassination I was thinking about measured responses – Particularly the subject of “martial law” and whether or not this is a justifiable solution given the circumstances, or a reaction of fear leading to a slippery slope of government authoritarianism.

Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in Washington DC has been a resounding success so far, but he can’t keep the troops there forever. The root of the disease needs to be addressed, particularly the corrupt Democrat leaders in blue cities who are keeping repeat offenders out of prisons and on the streets.

Frankly, I see martial law as nothing more than a stop gap even with the best of intentions; like giving someone morphine for their Stage 4 cancer. It feels good and takes the pain away for a little while but on the inside the body is still dying. Martial law doesn’t go far enough. The time for measured responses is over.

Consider for a moment, though, what the natural alternative is? What is going to happen next? It’s not hard to predict: It’s going to be open season on leftist activists and the elites who fund them. It’s going to be widespread vigilantism. And, honestly I welcome it. I wish that this was not necessary, but I accept the reality that it is inevitable.

I don’t think leftists understand what is about to happen. I think they have gotten away with their evil for so long they think they are untouchable. In truth, the only reason they continue to exist is because of men like Charlie Kirk who put so much value in traditional and peaceful opposition. Whoever the shooter is, they killed one of the nice guys.

When we witness a defining moment like the assassination of Kirk, it’s important to hold these images in our minds, as horrible as they are. Civilized society is quick to move on and absorb the next tragedy without properly dwelling on their rage. We need to be much angrier than we are.

Is vengeance the answer? I would say balance is the answer. Justice is the answer. For now, there is no justice. There is no balance.

What I see is a culture under siege on every level and we are not taking these attacks seriously enough. How much longer can we endure mass invasions from the third world? How much longer can we endure the indoctrination of our children? How much longer can we allow our speakers to be silenced, by censorship or by the bullet? How much longer will our neighborhoods remain safe when career criminals are protected by the system?

People who hate the west and want to see the west harmed should be kicked out. NGOs and corporations that fund these activists need to be shut down and scattered to the winds, by force if necessary. People and groups that actively seek to cripple the west and exploit or kill western citizens need to be eliminated. This is not complicated.

Men of the west must stand and defend themselves. We must defend our principles, our ideals and our people. This means destroying all enemies, foreign and domestic. This means patriots going to war.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 23:25

Lutnick: Beijing "Eating" Majority Of China's 52% Average Tariffs

Lutnick: Beijing "Eating" Majority Of China's 52% Average Tariffs

Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said that foreign governments have been bearing the brunt of U.S. tariffs over 15 percent, with China paying the lion’s share. 

“China is paying an average tariff of 52 percent. But the government of China is eating most of it. So while that’s a high average when you count in China, the government of China is covering most of that cost,” Lutnick said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Sept. 11.

As Epoch Times notes, Lutnick said that most countries aren’t facing tariffs above 15% and that when they do, the foreign governments step in to keep their businesses afloat while they negotiate better terms.

“The model is clear: 10% tariffs or less are paid by the manufacturers, the distributors, the businesses,” he said. “The consumer doesn’t pay. The consumer doesn’t pay because the seller doesn’t want to raise prices, because if they could, they would, but they don’t want to sell less. So they eat it.”

If the duties are between 10 and 15%, the distributor and manufacturers share the cost at about a 60-40 split, he said, resulting in about a 2 percent price increase with tariffs of 15%.

“And above 15%, no one can handle that ... unless the government covers it. So what you saw in cars, when you had 25%, before Europe made their deal and Japan made their deal, the government of South Korea and Japan and Europe covered it, because they didn’t want to hurt their employment,” Lutnick said.

This confirms our own previous reporting, focusing primarily on Japanese auto exports where virtually all these tariff costs have been borne by domestic carmakers.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1940496511978136038?ref_src=twsrc%…

“You’ve got to remember, these are big things, and our president is playing the big hand for America, and some of the governments play the little hand for their countries’ good,” Lutnick said, adding that this is why citizens have not seen price increases as a result of the tariffs.

“Our average tariff rate is not that high. Most of the world is less than 15 percent.”

Lutnick said Trump’s tariff strategy has changed the way other countries meet the United States at the table, pointing to the Japan and EU deals as an example. While Europe has agreed to U.S. car imports with no tariffs, Japan culturally has no market for U.S. cars, Lutnick said. Japan has instead agreed to invest $550 billion in American projects of Trump’s choice during his term in office, effectively to “buy down their tariff” at no cost to its own taxpayers, he said.

“Tariffs are bringing in $40 billion a month, bringing down our deficit,” Lutnick said. “It’s going to grow to $700 billion a year, and with growth of our economy the president says it’s going to get to a trillion.”

He predicted a construction boom in the first quarter of next year, with new factory building worth roughly $10 trillion and gross domestic product growth even before the factories open.

“You’re going to see factories get built in America at a scale you have never seen before,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 23:00

Peak Population: Prepare For A Shrinking World

Peak Population: Prepare For A Shrinking World

Authored by Michael Munger via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)

Earth is going to hit “peak population” before the end of this century.

Within 25 years, most of the world’s developed nations will be facing sharp population declines, with shrinking pools of young people working to support an ever-aging population.

The reason is not famine, war, or pestilence. We did this to ourselves, by creating a set of draconian solutions to a problem that didn’t even exist.

Fear has always been the best tool for social control, and the fear of humanity was deployed by generations of “thinkers” on the control-obsessed left.

Most starkly, Paul Ehrlich made a remarkably frightening, and entirely false, prediction in 1968, in his book “Population Bomb”:

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate ...

“We may be able to keep famine from sweeping across India for a few more years. But India can’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980. Nothing can prevent the death of tens of millions of people in India in the 1970s ...

“And England? If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”

PJ O’Rourke explained what was going on, in his 1994 book “All the Trouble in the World”:

The bullying of citizens by means of dreads and fights has been going on since paleolithic times. Greenpeace fundraisers on the subject of global warming are not much different than the tribal Wizards on the subject of lunar eclipses. ‘Oh no, Night Wolf is eating the Moon Virgin. Give me silver and I will make him spit her out.”

Family Planning and State Intervention

But there is more going here than just gulling the gullible; the overpopulation hysteria of the 1960s and 1970s had world-changing consequences, effects that are just now becoming clear. It’s not fair (though it is fun) to blame Ehrlich; the truth is that the full-blown family-size freakout emerged from a pseudo-science that held growth was a threat to prosperity. Influential organizations were founded by very worried people. The Population Council and the International Planned Parenthood Federation were both created early on, in 1952. Developing nations began promoting aggressive family planning initiatives, often with substantial support, and sometimes with coercive pressures, from Western governments and international agencies.

The United Nations, the World Bank, and bilateral donors, particularly the United States through USAID, increasingly integrated population control into foreign aid programs. High fertility rates, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, were viewed not merely as demographic trends but as Malthusian obstacles to modernization, poverty alleviation, and global security. China implemented its infamous “One-Child Policy” in 1979 with coercive measures, including forced sterilizations and abortions. India conducted mass sterilization campaigns, particularly during the Emergency period (1975–1977), often using force or extreme social pressure, including withholding ration cards. A number of countries in East Asia saw aggressive state-controlled programs, often funded by the World Bank, that sought to use questionable and coercive methods to reduce population growth quickly and permanently.

In more than a few cases, of course, the availability of contraception was actually a means of freeing women to make a choice to have fewer children. But combining this choice with state-sponsored coercion meant that even those who wanted more children, or would have wanted more children if the social pressures had been more sensibly used, were diverted from their private dream of several children.

That would be bad enough, if that were the end of the story. But it is only the beginning, because the sanctimony of scientism has created an actual population crisis, one that will affect the world for decades. Some nations may never recover, at least not in their present form. That crisis is the population bust.

Shrinking Planet: Which Nations Will Peak When?

I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations, using available data. What I was trying to calculate was the year of projected peak population, for the 26 countries where the data are reliable enough to make an educated guess. That projection is based on Total Fertility Rates, and accounting for immigration, and mortality (life expectancy) trends. These estimates are, at best, approximations, because in some cases the data are not strictly comparable. But the data I do have are drawn from the United Nations World Population Prospects, OECD statistical reports, and national demographic data.

See endnote for more source information.

Peak population years are based on UN World Population Prospects (PDF) mid‑variant projections, supported by regional reports noting that most European/North American nations will peak in the late 2030s. Japan already peaked around 2008, South Korea around 2025, and Israel—with TFR near 3.0—may not peak this century.

As is noted in the final row of the table, the replacement rate for total fertility is about 2.10, given trends in life expectancy and assuming no net migration.

This raises a question: if all these countries have TFRs below replacement, what is actually happening to the world’s population? The answer is simple, though it has not been talked about much. The world population is going to peak, and then start to decline. The total number of people on Earth will begin to fall sometime in the near future. The actual date of the peak is a matter of conjecture, since it depends on specific assumptions, but the estimates appear mostly to fall between 2060 (assuming current TFRs are constant) and 2080 (if TFRs increase slightly, and life span increases):

 

Sources: United Nations Medium-Fertility Projection (orange line); Simplified Lancet Projection Population Scenario yellow line

 

None of this needed to happen, folks. There is plenty of room on Earth, as you know if you have ever flown across Australia, Canada, or for that matter the US, at night. There is a lot of empty space.

Let’s do a thought experiment: there are 8.1 billion people on Earth now. Suppose all of them lived in the US state of Texas (for those Texans reading this, I know it seems like we are moving in that direction; the traffic in Dallas is remarkable!). Texas has an area of 676,600 square kilometers. So supposing present trends continue, and literally the whole world did move to Texas; what would that look like?

Well, 8.1billion / 676,600 is about 12,000 people per square kilometer. That’s slightly more dense than the five boroughs of New York (about 11,300 per square kilometer), but much less than Paris (20,000), and dramatically less than Manila (nearly 44,000). Now, New York and Paris are pretty crowded, but people do live there, and even go there voluntarily to visit sometimes. Even if the entire current global population had to move into Texas, it’d be only marginally more annoying than Manhattan at rush hour.

So, here’s the takeaway: there was no good reason for the population hysteria of past decades. As I tried to argue in an earlier piece, those predictions were ridiculous even at the time. And we need not be concerned about reviving the “population bomb,” because there is plenty of room, even if the human population does start to grow again, and even if we all had to move to Texas.

The effects of population decline are already starting to be felt in countries such as South Korea and Japan. As the average age climbs, the absolute number of people under 40 starts to decline. Unless something changes, the world population in general, and many specific countries, will face circumstances that, until now, have only ever been observed during catastrophic plagues or savage wars: blocks of empty houses, abandoned cities, and hordes of elderly people who lack the ability to provide for themselves. The difference in the present case, however, is that we are not suffering from famine or war. As Antony Davis pointed out, the current collapse of world civilization is a consequence of a striking failure to recognize that human beings are the most valuable resource we have.

*  *  *

Some Notes on Sources

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 22:35

Exodus: Affordability Crisis Sends Americans Packing From Big Cities

Exodus: Affordability Crisis Sends Americans Packing From Big Cities

Authored by Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox via RealClearInvestigations,

This is the first in a two-part series of the Great Dispersion of Americans across the country.

For much of the past century, in both the United States and elsewhere, the inexorable trend has been for people to move from rural areas and towns to ever larger cities, particularly those with vibrant downtown cores such as New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, and dozens of other iconic American cities. Most visions of the future still view urban cores as the uncontested centers of production, consumption, and culture, with rural areas, small cities, and suburbs relegated to the backwaters of modernity.

A RealClearInvestigations analysis has found that we may be on the cusp of a new era. Urban cores have started to shrink, losing first to the suburbs, then to ever further exurbs, and now to small towns and even rural areas. For the first time since the 19th century, America’s growth pattern favors smaller metros – Fargo, North Dakota, as opposed to Portland, Oregon – many of which once seemed out of favor.

This transformation can be hard to detect because demographers often discuss metropolitan regions, which put city centers at their cores. But this method of classification masks the trend that much of the growth is at the edges of these areas. In virtually all the fastest-growing metros, it has been the further-out exurbs, themselves until recently rural areas, that have experienced most of the expansion. While Raleigh, North Carolina – a sleepy state capital for much of its history – continues to draw migrants from across the country, the most explosive growth is not occurring in the city center but the surrounding “countrypolitan” towns of ApexFuquay-Varina, and Zebulon that offer land and a relaxed rural environment along with access to modern amenities.

Between 2010 and 2020, the suburbs and exurbs of the major metropolitan areas gained 2 million net domestic migrants, while the urban core counties lost 2.7 million. The pandemic, which normalized remote work and encouraged people to keep their distance, turbocharged this movement to smaller, less crowded, less expensive housing markets. Through the first four years of this decade, the urban core counties of the major metropolitan areas (over 1,000,000 population) lost 3,259,000 net domestic migrants, three times the rate of loss in the last decade. In contrast, 2.3 million net domestic migrants moved outside the major metros.

This is a shift the media has underplayed or pinned almost entirely on the pandemic, leaving the impression that small towns and rural areas have little to offer other than a safe haven from illness and crime. In a pre-pandemic 2018 article asking “Can rural America be saved?” the New York Times reported that small cities and towns, particularly in the middle of the country, were “getting old” and facing “relentless economic decline.”

The data suggest the opposite: that Americans are heading back to the land. The steep costs of urban housing and an Amazon economy that allows anybody, anywhere to get almost anything, is rekindling our deep-seated desire for privacy, space, and home ownership. 

The New Demographics

The first phase of geographic reinvention began to take shape by 2000, as workers followed both U.S.- and foreign-based companies, which were increasingly expanding into lower-cost states in the Sun Belt and Midwest. Since then, the two most urbanized big states, California and New York, have each lost more than 4 million net domestic migrants. Two other trends – a drop in immigration and fertility rates, especially among people living in big cities – are making it hard for these states to restock their urban populations. 

Although the many efforts to revive downtowns have helped lure newcomers, at least temporarily, most people moved to the periphery; suburbs account for about 90% of all U.S. metropolitan growth between 2010 and 2020, with the greatest increase in the farther-flung exurbs. The most notable expansion is not occurring on the fringes of behemoths like New York City and Chicago but in and around smaller metro areas. Between 2015 and 2023, areas whose growth more than doubled the national population increase included the Texas cities of Killeen and Sherman; Savannah and Jefferson in Georgia; Spartanburg, South Carolina; Daphne, Alabama; Naples, Florida; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Hagerstown, Maryland; and Clarksville, Tennessee. In these last three – Sioux Falls, Hagerstown, and Clarksville – the new settlements actually spill over into neighboring (and even more rural) states. 

This process may only be in its early phase, driven by the rush of millennials as well as immigrants. In the past, notes urban analyst and midwestern native Aaron Renn, much of the urban growth in the Midwest has come from migration from smaller towns in their region instead of from the coasts. The demographic vitality of places like Indianapolis and Columbus, for example, has been primarily from surrounding metro areas and rural regions. 

This is now changing as both foreign and domestic pilgrims are increasingly attracted to these smaller towns. We are witnessing a world turning upside down from the realities of the last century. Even the greatest exemplar of 20th-century growth – Los Angeles County – is now shrinking, and according to state estimates, will lose an additional 1 million people by 2070. Meanwhile, many smaller areas, notably in the South and Midwest, from which many Angelinos (and their parents) originally came, are enjoying something of a demographic recovery.

Housing Costs Driving the Big Metro Exodus

This shift reflects, more than anything, the rising cost of housing, which accounts for about 88% of the difference in the cost of living between expensive big city areas and the national average. As RCI previously reported, much of this extra cost results from the strict peripheral land regulations that have driven prices up in many metropolitan areas. High housing prices initially helped drive migrants from California to places like Oregon, Washington, and Colorado. But now those states have begun to adopt the same regulatory schemes with the same result: lower job growth, sluggish housing-construction rates, a deteriorating business climate, and surging domestic outmigration. This is a principal factor in the declining homeownership rates and domestic outmigration afflicting big cities. 

While the shift to smaller metros has many sources – including the migration of older Americans looking for less expensive places to live and the return to the South by many African Americans – perhaps more critical has been the movement of young families. The key here is home ownership, the traditional way to build wealth and enter the middle class. It has been in decline, not in terms of desire but the chance of achieving it, for half a century.  

Since the pandemic, U.S. house prices have risen strongly, seriously eroding affordability. In a market defined as affordable, the “median multiple” (which divides the median price of a house by the median income) registers at 3 or less. Right now, the average for the entire United States is over 4, but much higher in some markets – 10 or more in San Jose, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego, and 7 or more in San Diego, Miami, New York, and Seattle.

Not surprisingly, housing is usually more affordable in smaller markets and rural areas. American Community Survey data indicate that there are about 120 metropolitan areas in the United States with median multiples of 3.0 or less. In 2024, many of the more affordable metro areas could be found in former industrial centers such as Pittsburgh (3.2), Cleveland (3.3), St. Louis (3.5), and Rochester (3.6). The best bargains for first-time homebuyers, according to Zillow, are in smaller markets, where median multiples were 3.0 or below, such as in Wausau, Wisconsin; Cumberland, Maryland; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Bloomington, Illinois. 

This development has helped spur significant gains in net domestic migration in states like Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Maine, New Hampshire, and South Dakota. All of these states have a lower cost of living than the national average, except for New Hampshire, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Broad Rise of Smaller Places

The shift from the most urbanized regions and states has also been fueled by job growth. It has shifted decisively in recent years to less urban and lower-density states such as Idaho, Utah, Texas, the Carolinas, and Montana. In contrast, big urban states like New York, California, Illinois, and Massachusetts sit toward the bottom. This pattern also applies to smaller metros like Fayetteville, Arkansas; Greenville, South Carolina; Grand Forks, North Dakota; and Ogden, Utah, where job growth soared most dramatically.

At the same time, some formerly booming metro areas like Seattle, Denver, and Portland have experienced reduced net domestic migration as prices have risen and economic opportunities have shifted. Domestic migrants are increasingly turning to smaller metropolitan areas. In each of these once “hot” metros, domestic migration has switched to smaller markets, such as Spokane, Centralia, and Shelton in Washington, and Greeley and Grand Junction in Colorado, according to our analysis of Census Bureau data. 

This represents a reversal of the strong century-long trend, with larger metropolitan areas gaining the most net domestic migration. RCI’s analysis of Census Bureau data finds a stark turnaround from the period 2010-2015, when all categories of communities with fewer than 250,000 residents had more people leave than arrive.

The new data through 2024 reflects a profound reversal of this earlier trend, a shift from patterns that have existed for at least a century. Each of the population categories of 1,000,000 or more lost net domestic migration after 2015, while all of the smaller population categories gained net domestic migration.

Millennial Move to Smaller Places

The challenge of paying rent, much less buying a house, is transforming the decisions people make about where to live, particularly for those seeking to establish families or achieve middle-class lifestyles. “While I had a great job and a great apartment [in New York], I didn’t see how that would translate in the future to having a house or having work-life balance,” explained Katie MacLachlan, co-owner of the bar Walden in East Nashville. “I didn’t feel like New York City had that to offer unless you’re a billionaire.”

This marks a dramatic reversal from the faith in the mainstream media that millennials would inevitably flock to the big coastal cities and avoid smaller towns as backward, boring, and prejudiced. But repeating a meme does not make it true. Bigger core cities, such as New York, have actually lost both people, including young people between 25 and 39, since 2020. The much-ballyhooed era of elite coastal big city domination and small metro decline, so widely proclaimed in the national media, may well be past its sell-by date. In fact, after attracting the larger share of migrants between ages 25 and 44 for much of the past half-century, the big metro share has fallen since 2010, while smaller metros, and particularly areas with under 250,000 people, have surged in their appeal.

These migrants are finding that their conditions improved by moving. As Brookings Institution scholar Mark Muro has noted, salaries across a 19-state American Heartland region, adjusted for the cost of living, are above the national average. Another study found that of the 10 areas with the highest cost-adjusted incomes, eight are in the heartland. In contrast, those with the lowest adjusted incomes were entirely on the ocean coasts. 

Overall, many of the highest-salary metros look far less alluring for maturing adults and families. Among the 185 U.S. metro areas with at least 250,000 people, cost-of-living-adjusted salaries are highest in Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas, Fort Smith, Arkansas, and the Huntington-Ashland area, which spans the tri-state area in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio. All 10 of the highest average salary metros are small and mid-size markets – none has more than 1 million people. Most are in the center of the country, and the only two in an expensive state – Visalia-Porterville and Modesto in California’s Central Valley, far from the state’s pricey coast. 

This shift also corresponds to the maturation of millennials. Despite media accounts that young people do not want to start families or own homes, most surveys show that the vast majority of Americans in their 30s want to replicate these foundations of middle-class life. Some 1 million millennials become mothers every year. Many seem attracted to smaller metros, where you can live near an old Main Street and not too far from farms that offer fresh produce. This lifestyle has been described as “urbalism,” which mixes proximity to a metro center and airport while still living in what remains a largely rural setting. 

Nationally, the age of the average homeowner is rising, up from early 30s in 1980 to 56 today. The places where people under 35 represent the largest share of new homeowners, however, are overwhelmingly in the Midwest, as well as in Provo, Utah, Colorado Springs, and Bakersfield, California. “The data shows that they leave [big metros],” said Nadia Evangelou, author of a recent National Association of Realtors study. “They cannot afford it, so they probably leave for that reason.” One study found that while 20% of people under 35 in places like Sioux Falls, South Dakota, an emerging tech center, own their own home, only 3.5% in San Jose can make the same claim.

Immigrants Join the Parade

As domestic migrants increasingly left the big metros early last decade, immigrants from abroad made up for the loss. In the New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago metros, the net international migration continued, but was outpaced by outmigration of current residents since 2020 But now, for the first time since the pioneer age, medium sized metros like Columbus, Indianapolis, and Des Moines, are now attracting a higher percentage of foreign migrants than traditional centers like Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, or New York. 

In the process, for example, Omaha, Nebraska, has just hit the 1 million population mark. Omaha has become much more ethnically diverse, experiencing rapid foreign-born growth of 28% from 2010 to 2019, more than double the 13% national rate, according to Census Bureau data. Although only 7% of Nebraskans are foreign-born, there are wide swaths in the Omaha area that reach over 20% foreign-born, with large numbers speaking another language at home. It may not be the turn of the century Lower East Side redux, but it signifies an ethnic change that few would have anticipated.

America’s New Nurseries

Rather than havens for the old, small metros and rural areas are now America’s prime nurseries. States in the Midwest and South, including North Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Arkansas, and South Dakota, account for seven of the 10 areas aging the least rapidly from 2000 to 2023. North Dakota, once seen as hopelessly geriatric, has aged the least of all states since 2000. 

Much of this is connected to fertility. Overall, lower-density locales – with affordable homes, safe streets, and strong community cultures – are more conducive to families than denser urban areas. Eight of the 10 youngest big metros are located notably in the exurbs and smaller metros in the South, Midwest, and Mountain census regions. Rather than places doomed to become smaller and geriatric, these less dense places are becoming the nurseries of the nation.

Four of the six states with the highest birth rates were in North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Nebraska. At the same time, 14 of the 15 states with the lowest fertility rates were located in the Northeast and the West Coast. 

In terms of metros, those with lower-than-average birth rates included Los Angeles, New York, Portland, Seattle, Boston, Milwaukee, Chicago, Denver, San Francisco, Orlando, and Providence. In contrast, the highest birth rates were in markets with fewer than 250,000 residents – and they peaked in markets of 50,000 to 100,000 residents. Leading the pack were smaller markets such as Wheeling, West Virginia; Cheyenne, Wyoming; Clear Lake, California; Jacksonville, North Carolina; Decatur, Illinois; and Hobbs, New Mexico. 

The Future Is Dispersed

This shift in families says much about the future. Societies with low birthrates – as we now see in much of Europe, East Asia, and virtually everywhere but Sub-Saharan Africa – inevitably suffer a kind of cultural stagnation. They tend to have less demand not only for housing and other products but also for ideas. Young people, notes economist Gary Becker, are critical to an innovative economy, and in the U.S., more of them are likely to come from the interior.

Rather than see this movement as a negation of the American Dream, it is actually an enhancement, an echo of the great migrations that have expanded opportunities across this vast continent. The new dispersion does not mean the decline of the nation or the death of big cities. But the overall shift to smaller and revival of metros underscores the ever-adaptable nature of the “pursuit of happiness” that drives the relentless search by Americans for a better life. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 19:15

Brazilian Supreme Court Issues Harsh 27-Year Sentence For Bolsonaro, Trump Responds

Brazilian Supreme Court Issues Harsh 27-Year Sentence For Bolsonaro, Trump Responds

Update(1851ET): A shockingly harsh 27+ years in prison was handed down by the Supreme Court of Brazil:

...for plotting a military coup​ and seeking to “annihilate” the South American country’s democracy.

Justices Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha and Cristiano Zanin ruled on ​Thursday that Bolsonaro – a former paratrooper who was elected president in 2018 – was guilty of seeking to forcibly cling to power after losing the 2022 election, meaning four of the five judges involved in the trial had found Brazil’s former leader guilty.

Announcing Bolsonaro’s sentence for crimes including coup d’etat and violently attempting to abolish Brazil’s democracy on Thursday night, the supreme court justice Alexandre de Moraes said: “[He tried to] annihilate the essential pillars of the democratic rule-of-law state ... ​the greatest consequence ​[of which] ... would have been the return of dictatorship to Brazil​.”

President Trump isn't happy with the court's conviction - though there was one dissenting vote. His response: "very much like they tried to do with me but they didn't get away with it"...

* * *

Amid the looming threat of Trump's 'punishing' Brazil, the country's Supreme Court on Thursday is preparing to issue a conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly attempting a coup to remain in office during his 2022 election loss to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Backlash is expected from the Trump administration, as a majority of judges on a Brazil Supreme Court panel have now found Jair Bolsonaro guilty, with Justice Carmen Lucia becoming the third member of the five-judge panel to vote in favor of Bolsonaro’s conviction. This could result in unrest in the streets once the verdict is formally handed down.

Via Associated Press

The trial is set to formally conclude Friday, and a sentence handed down. If the sentence is harsh the White House could react fiercely after this summer a 50% overall tariff has been cumulatively imposed, impacting most Brazilian imports - including coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, beef, tobacco, seafood and rare earth minerals.

On Wednesday a lone dissenting vote was cast - Justice Luiz Fux voted to acquit Bolsonaro. "Fux’s position also emboldened conservative lawmakers pushing for a broad amnesty bill that would shield Bolsonaro," Bloomberg writes. Such an outcome would certainly help Brazil-US relations at a delicate moment, though many Brazilians might balk at bowing down to Washington.

Fux has actually requested that the whole trial be annulled. "While the lower house has signaled it may bring the measure to a vote, the Senate has shown little support, and the Supreme Court could still strike it down as unconstitutional," Bloomberg observes further.

"Authorities have cast the case as a landmark moment for democracy in a nation that has experienced more than a dozen coup attempts in its history but never before prosecuted a top official for taking part in one," adds the report.

Bolsonaro has already been barred from running in future elections, and a lengthy appeals process could push the proceedings closer to the 2026 presidential campaign - and all the while Bolsonaro has insisted he will be a candidate.

Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux, via Reuters

The Trump White House has chaffed at him being placed under house arrest, and has repeatedly publicly denounced the Lula government for a state 'witch hunt'.

Meanwhile, new polling reported in Bloomberg finds that "Approval of Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government rose to 33%, compared to 29% in July, according to Datafolha poll, published by Folha de S.Paulo."

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 18:51

EU To Resist Trump Pressure To Hit China & India With 100% Tariffs

EU To Resist Trump Pressure To Hit China & India With 100% Tariffs

Eyebrows have been raised as President Trump has reportedly been busy urging the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India over their purchases of Russian oil. Europe is unlikely to comply, most reports say.

According to the Financial Times and CNBC, Trump made the proposal during a meeting in Washington on Tuesday with top American and EU officials - with one aspect to the pitch being the US is willing to implement matching tariffs if Europe proceeds. The Europeans were led by the bloc's sanctions chief, David O'Sullivan, and the US side was led by senior US Treasury officials.

The European Commission has kept mum on the report, as has the White House, but the Commission has been touting its forthcoming 'tough' 19th sanctions package targeting Russia, given it includes measures to target sanctions evasion involving third countries.

India has blasted the current 50% tariff levied by Washington, including a 25% punitive duty it for its Russian oil purchases, and the EU is wary of any overly aggressive method which would damage relations with China and India.

But a US official told the Financial Times that the Trump White House is "ready to go, ready to go right now, but we are only going to do this if our European partners step up with us."

Trump had written Tuesday on Truth Social, "India, and the United States of America, are continuing negotiations to address the Trade Barriers between our two Nations."

"I look forward to speaking with my very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in the upcoming weeks," he added. "I feel certain that there will be no difficulty in coming to a successful conclusion for both of our Great Countries!"

This heightened tariff talk and threats are happening just as the May US trade court ruling which concluded the tariff's "exceed any authority granted to the president" is heading to the supreme court, after last month a federal appeals court upheld it.

As for the current tariff impact on US ally India, one producer in India's large carpet industry has lamented, "We are completely dependent on the US for our business and have no other markets. The tariffs have brought our production to a halt, and no consignment has been dispatched to the US for the past one month."

Perspective of a NATO hawk...

The person underscored, "It is the worst phase of my 50-year career in the carpet business, and the industry will die a painful death if the situation doesn’t improve in the next two months."

In the meantime the US tariffs have served to push India and China closer together, despite an uneasy 'frenemy' history, including border tensions among the nuclear-armed Asian powers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 18:50

US State Department Warns Visa Holders Against Cheering Charlie Kirk's Assassination

US State Department Warns Visa Holders Against Cheering Charlie Kirk's Assassination

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The deputy secretary of state on Thursday called on people to report foreign visa applicants and holders in the United States if they’ve expressed statements praising, making light of, or rationalizing the assassination of Charlie Kirk. The conservative commentator was killed on Wednesday at a college campus in Utah.

Charlie Kirk, conservative commentator and founder of Turning Point USA, speaks to supporters of President Donald Trump at a rally outside the Maricopa County Recorder's Office in Phoenix, Ariz., on Nov. 6, 2020. AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, File

“In light of yesterday’s horrific assassination of a leading political figure, I want to underscore that foreigners who glorify violence and hatred are not welcome visitors to our country. I have been disgusted to see some on social media praising, rationalizing, or making light of the event, and have directed our consular officials to undertake appropriate action,” Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau wrote in a statement on social media.

He also wrote, “Please feel free to bring such comments by foreigners to my attention so that the @StateDept can protect the American people.”

Elsewhere in the X thread, he told users he would instruct officials to monitor comments under his post.

Please repost them here. I will direct consular officials to monitor the comments to this post,” he wrote in the thread.

Earlier this year, Landau announced that he had revoked visas for British musical group Bob Vylan after they led crowds in chanting “death” to the Israeli military.

Kirk, 31, was assassinated on Wednesday while speaking at Utah Valley University. As of Thursday morning, no suspect has been apprehended or arrested, although FBI officials provided an update saying that the murder weapon had been recovered.

The attack was captured in videos circulating on social media that show Kirk speaking into a handheld microphone when suddenly a shot rings out. Kirk can be seen reaching up with his right hand as blood gushes from the left side of his neck. Stunned spectators gasp and scream before people start running away.

President Donald Trump said he would award Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, while Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha Vance, were set to visit with Kirk’s family in Salt Lake City.

Vance posted a remembrance on X chronicling his friendship with Kirk, dating back to initial messages in 2017, through Vance’s Senate run and nomination as vice president, and ending with his prayers after he heard of the shooting. Kirk played a pivotal role in setting up Trump’s second Republican administration, Vance wrote.

So much of the success we’ve had in this administration traces directly to Charlie’s ability to organize and convene,” Vance wrote. “He didn’t just help us win in 2024, he helped us staff the entire government.”

On Wednesday evening, Trump released a video calling Kirk a “martyr for truth and freedom” and suggested that radical, progressive ideology was, in part, responsible for the conservative activist’s death.

Investigators are confident they will find the shooter, Utah Department of Public Safety Commissioner Beau Mason said on Thursday. They now have images of a suspect and were analyzing a palm print and a shoe impression found near the scene, he said.

Two other people initially detained turned out to be uninvolved and were released.

Also, on Thursday, Mason said the suspect they are seeking “appears to be of college age” and “blended in” with students on the college campus.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 18:25

Whistleblower Video: Unidentified Flying Object Survives U.S. Missile Attack

Whistleblower Video: Unidentified Flying Object Survives U.S. Missile Attack

Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) has unveiled jaw-dropping footage showing U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones attempting to shoot down an unidentified flying object off the coast of Yemen in October 2024. The never-before-seen video, provided to Congress by a courageous whistleblower, marks the first known instance of a Reaper engaging an aerial target in a real-world operation, raising urgent questions about what’s lurking in our skies.

The crazy footage captures the moment an AGM-114 Hellfire missile strikes the mysterious object, sending debris flying but failing to destroy it (or... OR... this is a psyop!)

Shockingly, the object - seen cruising steadily before the intercept - continues its path unfazed after the hit, defying the military’s firepower. The video feed, stamped with “LRD LASE DES,” suggests one MQ-9 laser-designated the target for another Reaper’s laser-guided Hellfire missile, TWZ notes.

Burlison, sounding the alarm on X, shared the clip, writing, “was taken [on] October 30 of 2024. This video is of an MQ-9 drone tracking an orb or this object off the coast of Yemen,” adding, “You’ll see that another MQ-9 launched a[n AGM-114] Hellfire missile that – you cannot see that [other] drone.” He emphasized the footage’s authenticity, stating it “was presented as received from a whistleblower” and that an “independent review is ongoing.”

When pressed for answers, the Department of Defense stonewalled inquiries. “We do not have anything to provide on this,” a defense official curtly told TWZ, leaving Americans in the dark about this bizarre encounter.

The sighting of unidentified objects in our skies is far from new. Previously declassified documents from the Pentagon disclosed that from May 1, 2023, to June 1, 2024, the Department of Defense recorded 757 incidents involving unidentified aerial phenomena. Of these, only 49 cases have been officially resolved, according to the Pentagon’s findings.

There are reports dating back to the 1930s and 1940s,” UFO researcher James Fox said about the documents, describing “mysterious, glowing, and orb-like objects that emitted very bright light that could just fly rings around the military planes from World War II.”

This has been well-documented for decades," Fox added. "So either we’ve managed to track the same thing it’s been, [possibly] non-human intelligence, since the 1940s. Or someone has managed to replicate the technology, reverse engineer it and they’re flying it around.”

President Donald Trump fueled speculation in 2020 when he teased insider knowledge about the infamous Roswell incident. “I won’t talk to you about what I know about it, but it’s very interesting,” Trump told his son, Donald Trump Jr., during a podcast. However, not everyone’s buying the extraterrestrial hype. “I've not seen any evidence of aliens,” SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said at the Milken Institute Global Conference last year. “And SpaceX, with the Starlink constellation, has roughly 6,000 satellites, and not once have we had to maneuver around a UFO. [...] Never. So I'm like, okay, I don't see any evidence of aliens.”

These mangoes are amazing. Organic, no seed oils, no sulfites. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 18:00

COVID-19 Levels Peaking Across The US, CDC Figures Show

COVID-19 Levels Peaking Across The US, CDC Figures Show

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

COVID-19 is peaking in many parts of the country, even as respiratory illness activity is “very low” across the United States, according to an update provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Throughout the country, the CDC’s surveillance data show that “activity is peaking in many areas of the country with elevated emergency department visits and hospitalizations nationally,” the agency said on Sept. 5.

However, “the amount of acute respiratory illness causing people to seek health care is at a very low level,” the CDC also said. Data released by the CDC late last week show that emergency department visits associated with COVID-19 increased slightly, from 1.5 percent on Aug. 23 to 1.6 percent on Aug. 30.

Levels of COVID-19 are reported to be “likely growing” or “growing” in the District of Columbia and 23 states, including Oregon, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire, according to a map released by the CDC.

Meanwhile, CDC wastewater figures show that COVID-19 viral activity levels are “moderate” and that the District of Columbia and 14 states are reporting “very high” levels, including Alaska, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Connecticut.

Levels of the flu and RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, are both considered very low but increasing, according to the CDC’s weekly update.

Aside from those viruses, respiratory infections caused by the bacteria Mycoplasma pneumoniae, which can cause “walking pneumonia” in severe cases, remain elevated in some parts of the United States, said the CDC, citing emergency visits and positive tests.

The health agency also said that cases of pertussis, or whooping cough, “are lower than their peak in November 2024” but have been elevated this year compared to the levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

“There’s no distinct seasonal pattern to whooping cough, but past trends suggest that cases may increase in summer and fall,” the agency said. “Whooping cough is very contagious and can spread easily from person to person.”

The CDC and other health officials warned that infants younger than 1 year of age are at the highest risk of developing severe disease and complications from whooping cough, including death.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 17:40

Of Buggy Whips And AI Chips In PA

Of Buggy Whips And AI Chips In PA

Authored by Kevin Sunday via RealClearPennsylvania,

The buggy whip endures. Not, of course, as a commonly used piece of equipment to spur on a steed or two on your daily travels, but as a short-hand epithet deployed in conversations about the need to adapt or perish in the face of technological change and innovation.

It’s really easy to see, in a big breakthrough, that the horse-and-buggy guys are going to go out of business,” said White House AI czar David Sacks at Sen. Dave McCormick’s historic AI and Energy Summit this past July in Pittsburgh. What wasn’t easy to see, said Sacks, was greater access to affordable housing in the suburbs, new jobs for auto workers and mechanics, and wholly new industries like F1.

Sacks’ comment is in line with how the buggy-whip metaphor has traditionally been used, since it was first entered into the common lexicon in the 1960s in a marketing textbook – as reference to one technology (the personal automobile) quickly subsuming another (the horse and buggy).

The record player, the cassette player, the VCR, the camcorder, the handheld radio, and the dashboard GPS system – buggy whips, all of them, as the home computer and the cell phone consolidated many individual components of consumer technology.

But there’s a problem with this metaphor, which stands on a surprisingly soft foundation of a just-so story about rapid change from horse to car, on two accounts – it ignores both the ongoing change in transportation more broadly (by not giving proper account to the mass adoption of passenger boating and rail in the late 1800s) and just why it was that the automotive industry was built up in Michigan and the Midwest in the early 1900s.

If artificial intelligence is truly going to be deployed at scale, it will be through adoption by everyday Americans and the industries they work in, demonstrating that technology can solve problems in the real world, overcoming the many frictions of daily life in key industries. And as Pennsylvania finds itself at the center of the data center construction boom, it’s worth re-examining the history of Detroit and the auto industry.

Henry Ford and Ransom Olds were both from Michigan, which at the time of the invention of the automobile was well established as a manufacturing center for gasoline-powered boat engines for wheeled carriages. There was an existing workforce and supply chain network in place that already knew how to assemble vehicles of a certain type onto chassis that needed wheels. There were rail and marine terminals on the Great Lakes to supply needed inputs, like coal from Pennsylvania and iron ore from Minnesota, and equipment. And, most important, there was an existing workforce that knew their way around precision component manufacturing and metalworking.

In other words, the American auto industry was born in Detroit after being fathered by shipbuilding and train-car manufacturing – industries that were already serving the need of great masses of people moving off farms and into cities to work in manufacturing and logistics.

Returning to the deployment of artificial intelligence, it will only scale (and can only make a return on the eye-popping trillions of capital investment being planned) as a general purpose technology by actually solving a mass-market problem the way the personal automobile did. If that happens, new markets and industries will certainly be created, but these will be through an evolution of existing markets. And in this instance, the end goal – and true gain for Pennsylvania – will not be more data centers, but more efficient and innovation use of computing in the state’s key industries.

Pennsylvania is a leader in key industries that are essential to daily life: education, health care, life sciences, manufacturing, agriculture and construction. Each of these industries, which touch each of our lives every day, faces some major challenge that artificial intelligence could help solve for.

Physicians, burned out by the need to extensively chart their interactions with patients, find relief in AI transcription services that let them take their eyes off the laptop and onto the suffering person before them. Life science research and development budgets, compressed and limited by changes to NIH funding and shareholder concerns, go much further by simulating pharmacological effects on the body through the use of “digital twins.” Construction of new housing starts, held back by lengthy permitting reviews and a lack of affordable materials, is unleashed in earnest with AI tools helping understaffed agencies clear paperwork and develop new, affordable building materials using recycled components.

In the event this sounds too Panglossian, it must be made clear that the effective use of these tools will require practitioners and professionals in these industries that know their subject matter enough such that AI helps them think and innovate better, rather than thinking for them.

But this should all make clear what a simple, short-hand like “buggy whips” cannot – high-powered computing can mean much more to our state and its people than just the construction of new infrastructure. It can – and should – mean Pennsylvania, its people and its industries build a better tomorrow.

Kevin Sunday is director of policy at McNees Government Relations 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 17:00

The 9/11 Attacks Exposed Major Government Failure, But Americans Learned The Wrong Lessons

The 9/11 Attacks Exposed Major Government Failure, But Americans Learned The Wrong Lessons

Authored by William Anderson via The Mises Institute,

Like those of us who remember the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, the attacks on the World Trade Towers and the Pentagon, along with the downing of Flight 93, evoke clear memories of what people were doing when they heard about the event. The news was stunning, hard to comprehend, and made people fear for the future—and perhaps that fear was justified.

As has happened so many times before, when we see a massive failure of government, the response is to give government even more power, and 9/11 was no exception. This was a classic Crisis and Leviathan event, as economist Robert Higgs laid out in his often-cited book. A government failure created a crisis which led to Congress granting the executive branch even more authority but resulting in even more government failure.

While the Bush administration claimed that the attacks occurred because of structural problems with the government’s intelligence apparatus, FBI agents were warned about suspicious activity by flight students who were among the 9/11 hijackers. The agents, however, blew off the warnings. The flight schools also alerted the Federal Aviation Administration about suspicious Arab students, but nothing came of it.

In other words, the government didn’t need a Patriot Act or any other terrorism law to have stopped the hijackers, but that would have required the bureaucratic careerists better known as FBI agents to have done their jobs. Instead, the agents did what bureaucrats usually do: absolutely nothing.

Unfortunately, the US government did respond to the attacks, but in ways that made Americans worse off. From setting off wars in the Middle East to blowing up the economy at home, the US government took a crisis and turned it into an even bigger crisis, and we still are harvesting the bitter fruits.

The Response: The “Global War on Terror”

We know the aftermath. Less than two months after the attacks, US troops had invaded Afghanistan and, within a year, overheated rhetoric about Saddam Hussein of Iraq dominated the conversation at the White House. In early 2003, US forces invaded Iraq, ostensibly to protect Americans from the “weapons of mass destruction” that Iraq was reputed to be developing.

On the domestic front, the Bush administration pushed Congress to pass the infamous Patriot Act, which vastly increased the so-called terrorism statutes and ramped up domestic surveillance. In the name of safety, Americans found themselves losing liberties, but getting nothing in return.

We know the rest of the story. After the initial easy victories in both Afghanistan and Iraq, the fighting became fierce and never-ending. The “easy” conquest of Afghanistan turned into 20 years of bitter fighting, culminating in the disastrous US troop pullout in August, 2021. The US war with Iraq “officially” ended in 2011, although the US Armed Forces keeps fighters in that country ostensibly for “peacekeeping” purposes, but really for special operations.

More than 7,000 US troops died fighting in those two countries and many thousands more were wounded, many grievously. Nearly a million people have died (officially) in fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as other countries targeted by the West such as Syria and Yemen. On top of that, war creates refugees and the US-led “War on Terror” conflicts were no exception, with more than 30 million people displaced by the fighting.

The US actions neither ended terrorism nor made the world a safer place. Instead, they helped to create a mentality that the US soldier can—and should—go anywhere in the world to fight injustice and fight they did. Of course, injustice wasn’t going anywhere and in the end the US government exhausted people and scarce resources in an unsuccessful attempt to rid the world of terrorism and terrorists, creating one disaster after another.

There is no other way to honestly assess the so-called War on Terror. It wasn’t a thoughtful and reasonable way to respond to what happened on 9/11; it was throwing gasoline onto a fire in the belief that doing so would make the fire go away. It reflected a mentality that all that was needed to make the world “safe from terrorism” was to invade a few countries, impose “democracy,” and watch the terrorist regimes fall, a reversal of the old “Domino Theory.”

Creating the Housing Bubble as a False Economic Recovery

The 9/11 attacks occurred when the US economy was mired in a recession following the collapse of the Dot.Com Bubble that was created during the latter half of the Bill Clinton administration. Bush did not cause the bubble but had inherited it—and he inherited the criticism that always accompanies a president when the economy tanks.

As recessions go, the one in 2001 was mild, but the question that followed was how the Bush administration would handle it and not allow it to turn into a serious downturn. Unfortunately, Bush chose to follow the Keynesian stimulus route, using a vast increase in government spending to mitigate the aftereffects of the 9/11 attacks and the lingering recession.

Ever the Keynesian, Paul Krugman wrote three days afterward that the destruction of the Twin Towers and nearby buildings could have a positive economic effect because it would necessitate new spending:

So the direct economic impact of the attacks will probably not be that bad. And there will, potentially, be two favorable effects.

First, the driving force behind the economic slowdown has been a plunge in business investment. Now, all of a sudden, we need some new office buildings. As I’ve already indicated, the destruction isn’t big compared with the economy, but rebuilding will generate at least some increase in business spending.

Second, the attack opens the door to some sensible recession-fighting measures. For the last few weeks there has been a heated debate among liberals over whether to advocate the classic Keynesian response to economic slowdown, a temporary burst of public spending. There were plausible economic arguments in favor of such a move, but it was questionable whether Congress could agree on how to spend the money in time to be of any use -- and there was also the certainty that conservatives would refuse to accept any such move unless it were tied to another round of irresponsible long-term tax cuts. Now it seems that we will indeed get a quick burst of public spending, however tragic the reasons.

However, the US economy was slowly recovering and, in 2003, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan lowered the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to one percent. Even though the Bush administration pushed through cuts in income tax rates, the economy was sluggish.

In his book, America’s Great Depression, Murray Rothbard wrote that the way to deal with economic downturns was for government to lessen its role in the economy, something the Bush administration refused to do:

In sum, the proper governmental policy in a depression is strict laissez-faire, including stringent budget slashing, and coupled perhaps with positive encouragement for credit contraction. For decades such a program has been labelled “ignorant,” “reactionary,” or “Neanderthal” by conventional economists. On the contrary, it is the policy clearly dictated by economic science to those who wish to end the depression as quickly and as cleanly as possible.

Contrary to Paul Krugman’s “advice” following 9/11, the correct thing for the Bush administration to have done would have been measures to cut federal spending, reduce the tax burden, and refrain from vastly expanding its military capacity. While the administration did cut tax rates, it foolishly ramped up spending to a point where it created huge new burdens on the economy.

Keynesian dogma would hold that the “War on Terror” would have served as an economic stimulus, not to mention the spending for cleanup. However, that kind of spending is nothing more than the classic Bastiat “Broken Window” fallacy. The 9/11 attacks, by severely disrupting the financial and transportation sectors, imposed huge costs on the US economy—and in the real world, such costs are a drag on the economy, not a stimulus.

Unfortunately, instead of allowing a real economy to build, the Bush administration pushed what Peter Schiff labeled a “phony economy” based upon creating a bubble in the housing markets. The house of cards collapsed in 2008, and the US entered the Great Recession. (Unfortunately, the government’s response was to continue to fuel the bubble-based economy, putting off a reckoning that is in our future).

While the housing bubble was not directly caused by the government’s reaction to the 9/11 attacks, nonetheless it came about because of policies advocated by the Bush administration to help mitigate the negative economic effects of the attacks and the economic drag caused by the US reaction. To put it another way, to counter the negative economic effects of the collapse of the Dot.Com bubble and the 9/11 attacks, the Bush administration continued the housing policies of the Clinton administration to create yet another financial bubble.

Conclusion

The 9/11 attacks were one of the greatest government failures in our nation’s history, yet the “solution”—according to both supporters of President Bush as well as Democrats—was to give the government even more power and authority. For example, a few weeks after the towers fell, Al Hunt of the Wall Street Journal wrote a column, “Government to the Rescue,” as though this were a market failure.

Likewise, conservative figure Dennis Prager put out a video trying to rehabilitate the Bush administration despite its disastrous policies. For both Prager and Hunt, the problem wasn’t government but rather that government supposedly didn’t have enough power and authority.

It seems both men got their wish. Government grew in nearly every way possible.

The government’s debt at the end of 2001 was $5.8 trillion, and 24 years later, it has ballooned to more than $36 trillion. Deficit spending is out of control, and the economy is slowly tanking.

The 9/11 attacks didn’t cause these problems; the expansion of government did. Unfortunately, Americans failed to learn the lesson of 9/11, and they will have to live with the consequences.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 16:20

FBI Releases First Image Of 'Person Of Interest' In Kirk Assassination

FBI Releases First Image Of 'Person Of Interest' In Kirk Assassination

Update (1220ET): 

Moments ago, the FBI field office in Salt Lake City posted an image of a "person of interest in connection" with the political assassination of TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk.

"We are asking for the public's help identifying this person of interest in connection with the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University. 1-800-CALL-FBI," the FBI wrote on X. 

The New York Post shared an image of the weapon - an imported .30-06-caliber Mauser bolt-action rifle - with ammunition engraved with "transgender and anti-fascist ideology." MSM failed to acknowledge Steven Crowder was the first to report the 'transtifa'-style ammo ...  

CNN called the transgender and anti-fascist ideology engravings "cultural issues" ... 

In a separate post, we highlighted from Bluesky to Reddit, Democrats have been celebrating the assassination of Kirk. 

Meanwhile, Georgia Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins has called for a "House Select Committee on left-wing violence." 

*   *   * 

 

Utah Department of Public Safety official Beau Mason and FBI Special Agent in Charge Robert Bohls briefed reporters with new details on the political assassination of TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk and the ongoing manhunt for the suspect who remains at large. Separate from the press conference, the Wall Street Journal confirmed (following an initial report by Steven Crowder) that the "older-model .30 caliber hunting rifle" used in the assassination contained "ammunition engraved with expressions of transgender and antifascist ideology inside the rifle." Additional details about the weapon will be provided at the end of this note.

The FBI also has "good video footage of this individual," and the bureau has "tracked his movements," FBI agent Bohls told reporters.  

Bohls said agents on the ground recovered "a high-powered action rifle," noting that it was found in a wooded area where the shooter had fled.

"Investigators have collected footwear impression, a palmprint and forearm imprints for analysis," the special agent in charge said. He did not provide any color about the assassin's motive. 

Answering a question from a reporter, Mason said the suspect "appears to be of college age".

Highlights of the press conference:

  • FBI has "good" surveillance images of the assassin but is not releasing them yet

  • The suspect was tracked jumping from a building and fleeing into a nearby neighborhood

  • A bolt-action rifle was recovered in a wooded area

  • Assassin is believed to be of college age

  • Assassin remains at large

Let's take a step back. Yesterday, an alleged eyewitness said Kirk was shot around the same time that someone in the crowd "was asked about trans violence."

Which brings us to Steven Crowder, who was the first to report on the political messaging found on the assassin's weapon.

Here's what Crowder wrote:

EXCLUSIVE: This morning my team received an e-mail from officer at ATF.

The email included a screen shot from what appears to be an internal message describing a weapon and cartridges located by an ATF and other law enforcement near the scene of the Charlie Kirk shooting  at Utah Valley State University.

"On September 10, 2025, at approximately 12:24PM, Conservative political influencer Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at the Utah Valley University in Orem, UT. Mr. Kirk was speaking at the University as part of the American Comeback Tour. Multiple SLC I and III agents responded immediately. The suspect fired one shot from an elevated position on a rooftop in an adjacent building on the campus and surveillance video shows the suspect, jumping off and fleeing the area on foot. ATF and other law-enforcement located an older model imported Mauser .30-06 caliber bolt action rifle wrapped in a towel in a wooded area near the campus. The location of the firearm appears to match the suspects route of travel. The spent cartridge was still chambered in addition to three unspent rounds at the top fed magazine. All cartridges have engraved wording on them, expressing transgender and anti-fascist ideology. An emergency trace has been submitted an ATF SLC is working leads generated by the trace. The firearm and ammunition have been taken by the FBI for DNA analysis and fingerprint impressions. Upon completion of forensics, the firearm will be disassembled for additional importer information. Multiple people of interest having contacted or detained because of eyewitness testimony and review of video footage. The primary suspect is yet to be identified. ATF is assisting the investigation with multiple other federal, state, and local partners and the case is co-led by the FBI and Utah SBI.""

This was followed by WSJ's report, confirming Crowder's X post:

Investigators found ammunition engraved with expressions of transgender and antifascist ideology inside the rifle that authorities believe was used in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk, according to an internal law enforcement bulletin and a person familiar with the investigation. The older-model .30 caliber hunting rifle was discovered in the woods near the scene of Wednesday’s shooting at Utah Valley University, wrapped in a towel with a spent cartridge still in the chamber, the sources said. There were also three unspent rounds in the magazine, all with wording on them. Kirk, 31, was onstage going back and forth with a student about mass shootings involving transgender people when he was targeted, according to videos of the attack. The student has not been publicly identified.

Less than two weeks ago, we warned:

And this. 

*Developing.. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/11/2025 - 16:00

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