Zero Hedge

Corporate Bankruptcies On Pace For 15-Year High As More "Isolated Incidents" To Occur 

Corporate Bankruptcies On Pace For 15-Year High As More "Isolated Incidents" To Occur 

First came the spectacular implosions of subprime auto lender Tricolor and auto-parts supplier First Brands. Then came the regional-bank fiasco, prompting JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to warn that more late-cycle accidents may be ahead. Add in signs that lower-income consumers are tapped out, frothy valuations across the AI equity sphere, and even Bitcoin sliding below $100,000, and it's no surprise that many are beginning to wonder whether mounting financial stress signals the early stages of a broader downturn.

Another flashing red warning sign is new data from S&P Global this past week, showing that through October, 655 companies have filed for bankruptcy, nearly matching the 687 total for all of 2024.

S&P Global data showed that in October alone, there were 68 new corporate bankruptcies filings. In August, there were 76 filings, the highest monthly tally since at least 2020.

Industrials lead the charge with 98 filings, reflecting the group's vulnerability to snarled supply chains related to tariffs. Then, consumer discretionary firms followed with 80 bankruptcies so far this year. 

At current pace, corporate bankruptcies could reach a 15-year high by year's end. 

The Tricolor and First Brands implosions earlier this fall were certaintly a wake-up call. Regional bank woes and now lower- and middle-income consumers are exhausted, all combined, suggesting softening of the economy in the late year. The record 43-day government shutdown certainly compounded problems. 

"I view those few incidents as idiosyncratic but expect more of these 'isolated incidents' to occur, potentially in other sectors like software, which has increased leverage in that market while capital flows to AI capex," Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management of public strategies at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, told S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

Here are the notable bankruptcies this year. 

In mid-October, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon sparked some controversy in banking and finance circles with this comment: "My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more."

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, told clients days ago, "Our base case is that an equity market drawdown is avoided. Households suffer for the next two quarters."

However, Pingle noted that a $55 billion boost to disposable income in 2Q 2026 from retroactive tax relief in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will lift consumer sentiment in the early spring. Plus, all the infrastructure buildouts, reshoring, data center construction, and the list goes on and on, will likely begin to filter into the real economy early next year - all in time for midterms. 

So from now until economic tailwinds emerge, the Trump administration has launched Operation Affordability, focusing on lowering prices to lift low-income consumers and improve sentiment ahead of the midterms.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 18:05

After Tucker Carlson Exposé, FBI Director Patel Says Trump Rally Shooter Thomas Crooks Acted Alone

After Tucker Carlson Exposé, FBI Director Patel Says Trump Rally Shooter Thomas Crooks Acted Alone

The same day that Tucker Carlson told America more than the FBI has about Donald Trump's attempted assassin, Thomas Crooks, FBI Director Kash Patel announced that Crooks 'acted alone' in planning and conducting the attack. 

FBI director Kash Patel (L) and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt (R) speak during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Nov. 12, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Patel posted to X on Friday: 

"Over 480 FBI employees were involved in the Thomas Crooks investigation. Employees conducted over 1,000 interviews, addressed over 2,000 public tips, analyzed data extracted from 13 seized digital devices, reviewed nearly 500,000 digital files, collected, processed, and synchronized hundreds of hours of video footage, analyzed financial activity from 10 different accounts, and examined data associated with 25 social media or online forum accounts.

The FBI’s investigation into Thomas Crooks identified and examined over 20 online accounts, data extracted from over a dozen electronic devices, examination of numerous financial accounts, and over 1,000 interviews and 2000 public tips."

While Patel was seemingly responding to Tucker's claim that the government originally said Crooks had virtually no online footprint, that's not the point. If all of what Patel says is true, why don't we know any of it? Why did it take an anonymous tip to Tucker Carlson to provide the public with Crooks' public shift from Trump supporter to Trump hater to failed assassin? The public has an interest in this and a right to know.

In late September, Carlson's team received an anonymous tip from someone who said they had gained access to some of Crooks' online accounts, which he found using 'tools commonly used by private investigators' after obtaining Crooks' phone number and gmail address from public documents. He then traced that to two encrypted foreign email accounts (bcook[at]mailfence.com and americangamer[at]gmx.com). He also had a snapchat account, a Venmo, Zelle and PayPal account among several others. 

"It turns out that Crooks was hardly an online ghost," Carlson reports. "And yet, federal investigators lied and told us there was no trace of him online."

The source was able to obtain all materials from Crooks' deactivated YouTube account - which includes his search history, watch history, and 737 public comments. 

When Carlson's team asked the FBI why they hadn't shared this information with the public, the agency replied by asking if they could verify the authenticity of the shooter's account. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, in the July 13, 2024, attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, Crooks fired eight shots from a rooftop, grazing Trump’s ear, killing one attendee, and wounding two others before being fatally shot by Secret Service agents. Patel’s statement aligns with earlier FBI briefings, but also provides new details on the investigation’s depth.

Little is known about Crooks, who lived in Bethel Park and was a registered Republican who donated $15 to a progressive group in 2021. Neighbors said they were shocked to learn that he was behind the assassination attempt, describing him as quiet and unassuming.

FBI officials previously revealed that Crooks searched more than 60 topics related to Trump and President Joe Biden in the month before the attack, especially as they related to rally details and explosive devices. His digital activity included encrypted overseas accounts, prompting suspicions of foreign involvement, but Patel’s social media post dismissed these concerns.

The deceased victim, Corey Comperatore, died shielding his family from gunfire, while Marine veteran David Dutch, 54, survived after being shot in the chest and liver. Another man, James Copenhaver, sustained life-altering injuries. David Dutch, 54, was also injured.

Patel’s post is the first major update on the case since he assumed leadership of the FBI, and some lawmakers and critics are demanding more information, including access to Crooks’s online posts.

In the weeks after the assassination attempt, congressional hearings criticized Secret Service protocols, resulting in the resignation of its director. A bipartisan task force is currently investigating systemic failures.

A watchdog group is suing the Secret Service and Department of Homeland Security for records regarding security lapses that allowed Crooks to climb onto the rooftop with a rifle after being seen by rallygoers and police.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 17:35

US Debt Rose By $620 Billion During The Government Shutdown

US Debt Rose By $620 Billion During The Government Shutdown

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“This package demonstrates that we can govern without surrendering to big spending or letting Democrats dictate priorities,” wrote the House Freedom Caucus in some talking points released to the media.

“We successfully stiff-armed a massive omnibus spending bill; locked in disciplined, flat spending levels; preserved President Trump’s policy priorities… and kept our leverage for the next round in January.”

People can say whatever they want, but I’m pretty sure our politicians closed the US government for a record 42 days and changed absolutely nothing. That’s quite an accomplishment. Sublime ineptitude. Congressional approval ratings supposedly declined 11pts to 15% during the period. Remarkable.

If a trader knew that 85% of his decisions were losers, he’d become the richest man on earth by simply doing the exact opposite of his instinct. I’m guessing Pelosi made good money trading the chop, but the broad equity market ended the shutdown period roughly a percent higher than where it started.

Extrapolating the recent pace of deficit spending, the Federal government accumulated another $600bln of debt during the shutdown, adding more leverage to the system, sustaining the economy, supporting asset values.

But even so, 10yr treasury yields are unchanged from where they were before the shutdown.

Crypto prices got smoked, with bitcoin down roughly 16% for no particularly good reason, even as gold rose 5%.

Liquidity trades often need momentum to sustain them, and the hot money has been chasing AI and gold.

Beijing added roughly 62 gigawatts of electrical generation capacity to China’s grid while Washington remained closed. That’s roughly the generation capacity of the entire UK, once the world’s greatest power.

80% of China’s new generation capacity is renewables, which means that once its built, it requires no coal, gas, or oil imports to power data centers. That’s quite a competitive advantage in this existential race toward AGI.

But at least we have our democracy, which we’ve been told is the worst system except for all the others.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 16:55

US Installed Nearly 26 GW Of New Generating Capacity From January To August

US Installed Nearly 26 GW Of New Generating Capacity From January To August

By Meris Lutz of UtilityDive

Summary

  • The U.S. installed nearly 26 GW of new generation capacity between January and August 2025, up slightly from the approximately 23 GW installed over the same period last year, according to the most recent monthly infrastructure report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

  • As it has for most of the past two years, solar continued to dominate new generation resources, accounting for 2.7 GW out of 4 GW brought online in August alone, and 19 GW — about three-quarters — of generation capacity additions this year. 

  • The report also says FERC reissued a certificate for Williams Companies to construct and operate its Northeast Supply Enhancement Project. That expansion of the Transco gas pipeline from New Jersey to New York was revived following talks between President Donald Trump and Gov. Kathy Hochul in May after the Trump administration briefly froze the Empire Wind project. The White House and the developer of the wind project have told journalists the two sides reached a gas-for-wind deal, while Hochul has denied striking such a bargain.

Solar dominated capacity additions, according to FERC’s monthly report, while a controversial gas pipeline project from New Jersey to New York got a green light.

The report shows momentum for renewables continuing, despite the federal government’s emphasis on fossil fuels and nuclear. FERC lists 136 GW of “high probability additions” through August 2028, with renewables, led by solar and followed by wind, accounting for nearly 84%. Natural gas accounts for about 15% of high probability additions.

“Notwithstanding impediments created by the Trump Administration and the Republican-controlled Congress, solar and wind continue to add more generating capacity than fossil fuels and nuclear power,” the Sun Day Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong said in a statement. “And FERC foresees renewable energy’s role expanding in the next three years while the shares provided by coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear all contract.”

Large renewable projects that began operating in August include Hecate Energy’s 517-MW Outpost solar and storage project in Webb County, Texas; Gibson Solar’s 280-MW project in Gibson County, Indiana; and expansions at the Roadrunner Crossing Wind Farm in Eastland County, Texas, totaling 254 MW. 

While solar and wind made up most of the new generation added in August, a number of smaller gas generators also came online that month, totaling 888 MW. They include: Southern Indiana Gas & Electric Co’s 248-MW A.B. Brown expansion project in Posey County, Indiana; Basin Electric Power Coop’s 245-MW Pioneer Generation Station expansion in Williams County, North Dakota; and Lower Colorado River Authority’s 188-MW Maxwell Peaker Plant in Caldwell County, Texas.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 16:20

ICE & Border Patrol Begin Sweeping Deportation Raids On Criminal Illegals In Charlotte

ICE & Border Patrol Begin Sweeping Deportation Raids On Criminal Illegals In Charlotte

Federal officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) carried out large-scale raids across Charlotte on Saturday as part of President Trump's push to deport criminal illegal aliens. 

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, Mecklenburg County Board Chair Mark Jerrell, and Charlotte-Mecklenburg school board member Stephanie Sneed wrote in a statement that they will "protect the rights of all people who call Charlotte and Mecklenburg County home." 

What they really mean is to protect illegal aliens at all costs. Why? Because illegals are politically valuable, both as a future voting bloc and as a demographic booster for the next Census, which directly benefits the Democratic Party, now taken over by far-left DSA-ers. 

“Americans should be able to live without fear of violent criminal illegal aliens hurting them, their families, or their neighbors,” Assistant Homeland Security Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a press statement on Saturday.

“We are surging DHS law enforcement to Charlotte to ensure Americans are safe and public safety threats are removed.”

City and county officials have criticized the enhanced federal immigration enforcement operations.

“The expected ... operations are causing unnecessary fear and uncertainty in our community as recent operations in other cities have resulted in people without criminal records being detained and violent protests being the result of unwarranted actions,” read a Saturday statement prepared by Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, Mecklenburg Board of County Commissioners Chair Mark Jerrell, and Charlotte-Mecklenberg Education Board Chair Stephanie Sneed.

Lyles, Jerrell, and Sneed went on to state that the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department doesn’t assist with federal immigration enforcement operations.

Lastly, the city and county officials called on those considering protesting to remain peaceful.

“We do not want to see violence like many witnessed in other cities. We can stand up for what we believe in without resorting to violence,” the statement reads.

Let's not forget unhinged Mayor Vi Lyles faced backlash after calling for "compassion" toward the violent madman accused of slaughtering Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on the city's light rail.

Deadly stabbing on NC train Aug. 22, 2025 (WCNC:Charlotte Area Transit System per CNN Newsource)

Meanwhile...

Fun facts about the area: Approximately 58,000 illegals are living in Mecklenburg County, and an estimated 325,000 in North Carolina (data found here). 

X user Cynical Publius has three suggestions for the White House that would end the nation-killing rule Democrats and their globalist allies have imposed, a sinister rule marked not only by an open-border invasion of tens of millions of illegals designed to disenfranchise native-born voters, but also by an invisible insurrection carried out through color-revolution-style operations against Trump and 'America First' via a dark web of nonprofits... 

The Democrat Party as we know it today would cease to exist if the following three measures were implemented:

  1. Nationwide voter ID with in-person, same-day voting except for true absentee situations.

  2. End tax exempt status for ALL 501(c)(X)s (even religious, because if we leave that they will abuse it).

  3. Continue Trump's enforcement of existing immigration laws until we have rolled back all damage done over the last ten years.

Related:

The illegal-alien invasion facilitated by Democrats and their globalist allies shows no respect for borders or the rule of law. And without the rule of law, there is no country. All indications now point to a rise in deportations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 15:45

Record Numbers Of Young Women Want To Leave The US

Record Numbers Of Young Women Want To Leave The US

By Benedict Vigers of Gallup,

For the second straight year, about one in five Americans say they would like to leave the U.S. and move permanently to another country if they could. This heightened desire to migrate is driven primarily by younger women.

In 2025, 40% of women aged 15 to 44 say they would move abroad permanently if they had the opportunity. The current figure is four times higher than the 10% who shared this desire in 2014, when it was generally in line with other age and gender groups.

The percentage of younger women wanting to move to another country first rose decisively in 2016, the final year of President Barack Obama's second term. That year, Gallup surveyed the U.S. in June and July, after both parties’ presumptive nominees were set for the November election, which Donald Trump went on to win. Desire to migrate continued to climb afterward, hitting 44% in President Joe Biden’s last year in office and remaining near that level in 2025. This suggests a broader shift in opinion among younger women, rather than a solely partisan one.

The sharp rise in younger women wanting to leave the U.S. has created a large gender gap between them and their male counterparts. Today’s 21-percentage-point gap between younger men (19%) and women (40%) wanting to leave the U.S. is the widest Gallup has recorded on this trend.

Since Gallup began measuring this question globally in 2007, few countries have shown gender gaps this wide in the desire to migrate. Before the U.S. in 2025, no country had recorded a gap of 20 points or more between younger men and women.

Gallup’s question asks about desire to migrate, so these findings reflect aspirations rather than intentions. Previous Gallup research shows not everyone who wants to move will move. Still, the data indicate that millions of younger American women are increasingly imagining their futures elsewhere.

While the desire to move for good is currently elevated among U.S. men as well as women under age 45, it remains relatively flat at low levels among their counterparts aged 45 and older.

What has not changed is where these younger women would like to go. Canada remains the top preferred destination for younger American women looking to leave, with 11% of those in the years since 2022 mentioning Canada as their top destination, ahead of New Zealand, Italy and Japan (all 5%).

Young Women in Other Advanced Economies Don’t Share the Desire to Move

The growing trend in younger women in the U.S. looking to leave their country is not evident in other advanced economies. Across 38 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the percentage of younger women who say they would like to migrate has held relatively steady for years, typically averaging between 20% and 30%.

For much of the late 2000s and early 2010s, younger U.S. women were less likely than their peers abroad to want to move. That changed around 2016. Since then, they have been more likely than younger women in other wealthy countries to say they would leave their homeland for good. By contrast, U.S. men aged 15 to 44 continue to be less likely than average to want to migrate compared with their peers in the OECD.

Politics Plays a Role Alongside Age and Gender

Rising interest in leaving the U.S. is shaped not only by age and gender but also by political attitudes. In 2025, there is a 25-point gap in the desire to migrate between Americans who approve and those who disapprove of the country’s leadership.

Desire to permanently leave the U.S. was not always such a politicized issue. Between 2008 and 2016, migration aspirations were similar regardless of views toward the country’s leadership. After Trump’s election, 2017 marked the first time this gap exceeded 10 points. During Trump’s first term, the difference in migration aspirations between those approving and disapproving of national leadership averaged 14 points. Under Biden, the gap narrowed to eight points, before climbing to 25 points in 2025, the first year of Trump’s second term in office.

Younger women’s much stronger orientation to the Democratic Party than other age and gender groups exhibit helps explain some of the differences in desire to move abroad. So far in 2025, 59% of women aged 18 to 44 identify as or lean Democratic, compared with 39% of younger men, 53% of older women and 37% of older men.

Desire to Migrate Rises Among Single and Married Women Alike

The people most likely to express a desire to migrate are typically those who have greater mobility, such as the unmarried, those without children at home and younger adults. However, among American women aged 18 to 44, the desire to migrate has risen regardless of marital status.

Between 2024 and 2025, at least two in five younger women — 41% of those who are married and 45% of those who are single — said they would like to move abroad permanently if given the chance. This is the narrowest gap by marital status among younger women in desire to move that Gallup has recorded since first asking the question, suggesting that younger married women increasingly do not view marriage as a barrier to migration.

The same pattern is true for having young children at home. Among younger women with children living at home, 40% say they would like to leave the U.S. for good, on par with the percentage among those without children (44%). Were these women to follow through on their desire to migrate, it is likely that they would take the next generation with them.

Younger Women Lose Faith in America’s Institutions

Across demographic groups, Americans with lower confidence in institutions such as the government, judicial system, military and integrity of elections are consistently more likely to express a desire to leave the country.

Over the past decade, younger women have not only shown the largest increase in wanting to move abroad but also have experienced the steepest drop in institutional confidence of any age or gender group.

In 2015, women aged 15 to 44 scored an average of 57 on Gallup’s National Institutions Index, which measures confidence in the national government, military, judiciary and honesty of elections.

Since then, younger women’s scores have fallen by 17 points — a sharper decline than seen for any other demographic — and dropped during both the Trump and Biden administrations. By comparison, women aged 45 and older and men aged 15 to 44 have remained broadly stable in their confidence in institutions, while the score among men aged 45 and older has increased by 15 points.

The Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned the constitutional right to abortion, may have contributed to the drop in younger women’s National Institutions Index score — particularly the steep decline in their confidence in the judicial system, which fell from 55% in 2015 to 32% in 2025, more than any other age group. However, when it comes to desire to migrate, the Dobbs decision alone may have played a more limited role, given that the trend in wanting to leave began years before the ruling.

Bottom Line

More Americans than at any time in the past two decades say they would like to move away from the U.S. permanently, with the sentiment becoming increasingly politicized since 2017. Younger American women’s desire to leave the U.S. has surged to unprecedented levels in recent years, widening the gender divide to more than 20 points, the widest recorded for any country in the World Poll.

Unlike their peers in other advanced economies, younger American women now stand apart from the rest of the U.S. in several respects. They increasingly lack faith in national institutions and picture their futures beyond America’s borders.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 15:10

Rotation, pAIn, Or Smooth Sailing?

Rotation, pAIn, Or Smooth Sailing?

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

pAIn Ahead?

Last weekend we published pAIn Ahead? which had two major problems:

  1. It is a bad idea to start a title with a small letter, as our publishing system is designed to force Capital Letters in titles, including the first word of the report.

  2. It is more than a little embarrassing to have a title “pAIn Ahead” out there as stocks opened strong and went higher throughout the next few days with the Nasdaq 100 closing up 790 points!

But, on the week, the index fell slightly, making last weekend’s report far less misplaced than where it started the week. If we hadn’t had a major “buy the dip” moment on Friday at its lows, the Nasdaq could have closed down 2% on the week.

Since we had a small loss on the week, a 4.4% pullback from its high on Monday to its low on Friday, it makes sense to revisit the points we made when expressing concern about the potential for an AI- driven pullback.

  • Bitcoin. Whether it is leading the market or just going along with the “momentum” stocks, crypto had a tough week, with Bitcoin dropping from $104k last Friday to $94k this Friday. It is rebounding a bit this weekend, and is worth watching as virtually every regulatory and administration headline remains positive, but it cannot seem to rally significantly. I think it is safe to say that everyone keeps an eye on Bitcoin as a barometer for risk assets, especially on weekends, when markets are closed, but the news flow doesn’t stop.

  • Retail Dip Buying. I remain suspicious that the longs are held by “pros” at this stage as I’ve seen evidence of profit taking by retail. Having said that, the “retail” favorite names and ETFs had a very volatile week (even more so than the market as a whole) and we did see some inflows into some of the most “beat up” names. Maybe it was retail that led the surge, but it could have also been pro traders getting “cute” and trying to anticipate positive weekend news (the admin has been quick to provide positive headlines, especially over the weekend and on Monday morning, when stocks stumble). We will see what happens, but I think the almost 1% late-day fade off of the highs is telling. Of late, dip buying isn’t always providing instant gratification.

  • Volatility. VIX inched higher on the week, while realized stock market volatility rose rather aggressively. The MOVE Index (a measure of bond market volatility) rose more rapidly than the VIX. Higher overall volatility can force some “risk parity” strategies to de-risk. Any shift in correlations between major asset classes can cause them to reduce as well. This could be happening already, but I doubt it has been meaningful. Another week like the past week (especially if the net result is more to the downside) could cause real de-risking.

  • Sentiment and Inflation. The admin is dialing back tariffs on many agricultural goods. Coffee is high on my list. I’m having difficulty wrapping my head around the fact that the admin is signaling that they are championing lower prices by eliminating these tariffs.

    • Hmmmm…this admin put the tariffs in place, so not sure how much credit they deserve for removing them. I think it is good that they are changing policy, but it always seemed weird to tariff things that we don’t grow or produce domestically (and have climate limitations to doing so).

    • Hmmmm…is this a low-key acknowledgement that on some goods, where there is no obvious replacement, tariffs get paid for by the consumer? This has been pretty clear since day 1, so it is good that it is being acknowledged, if only tacitly, but how many other tariffs are finding their way to the consumer? We suspect that number is still small, but growing over time.

  • There is a lot of rhetoric about affordability, and that is only increasing as both sides dig in to fight over costs and who is responsible.

  • Bonds and the Fed. The probability of a Fed cut has moved from over 60% to “only” 43% according to Bloomberg’s WIRP function. Now that the probability has dropped below 50% the Fed may lean towards not cutting, since the market isn’t “forcing” their hand. Yes, the Fed will make its own deliberations, but it does pay attention to the market. A lot could still happen between now and the December 10th meeting, but this is yet another indicator of dialing back cuts until the new year. I’m told much of the recent selling was triggered by the concern that the Fed could be less aggressive. I could see that being a part of the whole discussion, but we are susceptible in so many ways that it didn’t take much to shake our belief in the biggest momentum trades of the year. The “old” 10- year (August 2035 maturity) rose from 4.10% to close out the week at 4.14%, though it briefly got to 4.05% on Friday morning (around the timing of OPEX). I continue to expect more downside for Treasuries with the 10-year yield to approach 4.3%. That will weigh on stocks if it turns out to be correct.

Rotation

There is certainly a rotation trade and I think it will continue to work.

For this trade, I like the S&P 500 equal weight versus the Nasdaq 100. In the past year, QQQ (a Nasdaq 100 ETF), is up about 20% while RSP (a S&P 500 equal weight ETF) is up only 4.5%. There is room for significant outperformance on this relative value trade.

Bottom Line

Sticking to our ProSec (Production for Security) themes. See any of our recent reports at Academy Macro. Look for the “rotation” to continue.

Also, I think the pain continues. The Nasdaq 100 is down on the month and the issues facing it (discussed above and detailed last weekend), have not been resolved. If anything, the big move on Monday and then the fierce dip buying on Friday may well have left a lot of short-term “trading” longs exposed to a further pullback.

I don’t like Treasuries (targeting at least 4.25% on 10s).

We continue to think credit spreads will remain under a bit of pressure. Nothing major, but the combination of:

  • Some private credit “fiascos” (not sure what else you can call something that seemed to go from par to default almost overnight). Again, I don’t think there are a lot of “cockroaches” out there, but it is weighing on the market – and I believe this is making it more difficult for small companies to access credit – which is a real-world problem.

  • Increasing “concern” about how much debt needs to be raised to build out data centers, AI, and the electricity generation capacity to power those data centers. Not alarming and will play out over time, but this will weigh on credit spreads.

  • The low income consumer. Increasing concerns about delinquencies and the fact that the number of households having delinquencies may be set to rise.

It was a very memorable Veterans Day week here at Academy, and now we set our sights on Thanksgiving with friends and family! In the meantime:

  • Rotation? Yes.

  • pAIn Ahead? Likely

  • Smooth Sailing? Unlikely

This is a “normal” or even “run of the mill” adjustment to valuations, current conditions, and various outlooks. Certainly not alarming, but not yet time to fully reload into the momentum names.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 14:00

Virginia Neighborhood Shocked By Massive Home Addition Built For Three-Generation Family

Virginia Neighborhood Shocked By Massive Home Addition Built For Three-Generation Family

Multigenerational living has surged to a record high, with 17% of 2024 buyers purchasing homes designed for multiple generations, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

Families are increasingly combining households to cope with elevated living costs, caregiving demands, and even the need to reconnect as a family unit. This trend is being fueled by a housing market that remains frozen for many first-time buyers - caught between high mortgage rates and record high prices - pushing more families to pool resources and live under one roof.

The multigenerational home trend is being fueled by a "Silver Tsunami" of Baby Boomers entering their 70s and 80s. As this cohort ages, millions will downsize, retire, move into multigenerational homes, require caregiving, or transition to assisted-living or aging-in-place arrangements.

Evidence of this trend recently surfaced in a quiet northern Virginia neighborhood, where a newly built home addition has sparked outrage, according to FOX 5's Bob Barnard.

Another view.

Barnard said a three-story addition to a single-story home is set to house three generations of one family. He noted that the builders met all zoning requirements, but the neighborhood is outraged because the addition resembles a small multifamily apartment building.

Given that the Silver Tsunami is underway and much of the real estate industry isn't prepared, additions like the one seen in the northern Virginia neighborhood will continue to startle communities.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 13:25

The Debt-Reduction Playbook: Can Today's Governments Learn From The Past?

The Debt-Reduction Playbook: Can Today's Governments Learn From The Past?

Authored by Joe Sullivan-Bissett via BondVigiliantes.com,

Government debt levels continue to linger in uncomfortable territory across developed markets, with fiscal deficits stubbornly high despite reasonably resilient growth and employment – especially when compared to past norms. This is not a post-crisis or post-war moment, yet debt levels resemble those of an economy fighting its way out of recession.

Runaway levels of debt, and the question of how they can be contained, could well be the defining macro story of the next decade. This not only has implications for public finances, but also the trajectory of yields, inflation, and the credibility of future policy.

High debt is not new, with history being full of examples of governments facing daunting fiscal positions, and each era has found its own way out: sometimes through discipline, sometimes through inflation, and sometimes through quiet financial engineering. Earlier this year, Rob Burrows explored options for dealing with debt in this blog.

Following on from that, below I explore if there are any useful lessons in history which could provide a solution for today’s backdrop.

Financial repression: The silent partner in debt reduction

After World War II, both the US and the UK emerged with debt-to-GDP ratios well above 100%, with the latter at 250%. Yet over the following decades, those burdens shrank dramatically, and without large fiscal surpluses or deep austerity. The solution was financial repression.

Governments and central banks effectively capped interest rates while letting inflation run high. With capital controls in place and a banking system that was required to hold government paper, real interest rates stayed negative for years. Investors earned less than inflation, and debt quietly melted away in real terms.

Source: Bank of England’s Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018

By the mid-1970s, the UK’s debt ratio fell to roughly 50% of GDP. Much of that adjustment came not from paying debt down, but from the erosion of its real value.

Could it work today? Not easily. Financial repression relies on closed capital systems and willing domestic savers, both of which are in short supply today. In open markets with moveable capital, measures such as yield caps or mandated sovereign debt holding would likely require complex regulatory interventions or indirect support from central banks. Such policies would be difficult in a globalised, market-oriented system.

Growth as the denominator: Britain after the Napoleonic Wars

After the Napoleonic Wars, Britain’s public debt exceeded 200% of GDP. Over the next half-century, it fell steadily, not through inflation (the gold standard ruled that out) but through real growth and persistent, if modest, budget surpluses.

The Industrial Revolution transformed output and tax revenues, while the state held spending flat. The result was a slow but powerful denominator effect: GDP grew faster than the debt stock, even as prices remained stable or fell.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/

* Definition of ‘International $’ on which this data set is based, can be found here:https://ourworldindata.org/international-dollars

Could governments grow themselves out of debt again? That depends on whether today’s economy can find an equivalent productivity revolution. Demographics, slower innovation diffusion, and lower investment all weigh against it. Unless of course, AI proves to be the answer…

Inflation: The blunt instrument

Inflation has historically been one of the fastest ways to reduce debt. Weimar Germany in the 1920s and Japan in the immediate post-war years both saw real debts wiped away by surging prices. Even moderate inflation, sustained over time, can do significant work: in the 1970s, UK debt ratios fell sharply again as inflation outpaced borrowing costs.

Could governments inflate their way out today? Using inflation to reduce debt today is less straightforward, given that central banks are independent and focused on keeping inflation close to 2%. The recent post-pandemic inflation spike showed how higher inflation can create economic and social pressures, and how institutions respond to keep it in check. If inflation stays above target for too long, it could affect the credibility of monetary policy. Still, a period of slightly higher inflation alongside nominal growth might be seen as a practical path if political constraints make fiscal tightening difficult.

So are there any useful lessons from history?

Perhaps not. Each historical escape route looks less accessible today:

  • Lowering debt through austerity is politically challenging, especially in societies already weary from years of spending restraint and rising inequality

  • Inflation is broadly constrained through central bank objectives

  • Growth remains elusive, unless technology delivers a genuine productivity revolution

  • Financial repression, while possible in partial form, risks distorting markets and undermining investor confidence.

That leaves a muddle-through scenario: persistent deficits, modestly higher inflation tolerance, and debt ratios that stabilise rather than fall. Markets may increasingly price this as the new normal: A world of structurally higher term premia and periodic fiscal scares.

History suggests that when governments can’t grow, tax, or inflate their way out, they simply wait it out: relying on time, moderate nominal growth, and the slow erosion of debt through steady, incremental policy.

It’s not a dramatic ending to this episode, but it may be the most realistic one.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 12:50

US 'In Trouble' - Ford CEO Can't Find 5,000 Mechanics For $120k Jobs

US 'In Trouble' - Ford CEO Can't Find 5,000 Mechanics For $120k Jobs

Ford Motor Company CEO Jim Farley has sounded an alarm about the state of the US job market, saying Ford has been unable to fill 5,000 mechanic jobs paying $120,000 a year. Those $120,000 salaries are nearly double the US average. 

“We are in trouble in our country. We are not talking about this enough,” said Farley in an appearance last week on the Office Hours: Business Edition podcast. He said the shortage of qualified manual laborers isn't confined to Ford, but is something businesses across the nation are struggling with. 

“We have over a million openings in critical jobs, emergency services, trucking, factory workers, plumbers, electricians and tradesmen. It's a very serious thing. We do not have trade schools. We are not investing in educating a next generation of people like my grandfather who had nothing, who built a middle class life and a future for his family.

Those jobs are out there. Mechanics in a Ford dealership -- as of this morning, we had 5,000 openings. A bay with a lift and tools and no one working in it. $120,000-a-year job, but it takes you five years to learn it. To take a diesel out of a Super Duty, it takes a lot of skill. You need to know what you're doing." 

"We are in trouble in our country," said Ford CEO Jim Farley in his appearance on Office Hours: Business Edition. 

Rich Garrity, a National Association of Manufacturers board member, expanded on Farley's lament about the country's deficit in training programs, telling the New York Post:  

“We’re not just missing bodies, but we’re really missing ... skill sets that can connect to 21st-century manufacturing needs. The community colleges, the career tech programs do a solid job in providing foundational training, but we often see that they’re out of date when it comes to keeping up with how fast things are moving from a technology standpoint." 

Social media is awash in testimonials from young college grads bemoaning their inability to find jobs. Meanwhile, in August, BLS reported that America had over 400,000 available manufacturing jobs. There's an obvious disconnect, but, on a bright note, the long-running over-emphasis on college education may finally be waning. Trade school enrollment soared 16% in 2024, while college enrollment growth has been negligible in recent years.  

“For many years in the US, it was, you go to a four-year college and things are set up for you,” Farley said. "And the reality is, that path is not necessarily what it used to be. A more valuable path, in many cases, is getting a technical college or apprenticeship and starting to learn certain skills very early on.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 12:15

Watch: Media Leftists Tip-Toe Around Trump Amid Lawsuit Fears

Watch: Media Leftists Tip-Toe Around Trump Amid Lawsuit Fears

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Leftist media figures are increasingly walking on eggshells when discussing President Trump, hastily retracting or clarifying statements to avoid potential defamation lawsuits that could bankrupt their networks. 

In recent clips, MSNBC’s Jen Psaki and CNN anchors have been caught mid-sentence backpedaling on inflammatory remarks tying Trump to Jeffrey Epstein, signaling a broader chill in media rhetoric as Trump’s legal victories mount.

During a segment on MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki,” the host quickly corrected herself after implying Trump was among “predators” linked to Epstein. 

Psaki stated, “The other predators out there, in addition to Trump! I mean, not, I’m not, not saying HE is…” This fumbling reversal came amid chyron headlines like “Trump White House Engulfed by New Epstein Bombshell,” highlighting how anchors are now second-guessing their words to evade legal scrutiny.

Similarly, CNN anchors went out of their way to absolve Trump during Epstein coverage, emphasising, “We wanna be clear. Trump didn’t receive or send any messages…he has not been accused of any wrongdoing with Epstein or Maxwell.”

This unsolicited clarification underscores the network’s caution, likely influenced by Trump’s aggressive litigation strategy against perceived smears.

These instances reflect a wider trend where media outlets are “tip-toeing” around Trump-related stories, fearing exposure and costly lawsuits. 

Critics argue this self-censorship stems from Trump’s track record of holding networks accountable, with legal experts noting that defamation laws are being weaponized to curb biased reporting. 

As one analyst put it, “The media is terrified of Trump’s legal team— they’re editing in real-time to avoid the next big payout.”

Democrats too have been forced to delete a previous completely unfounded claim that Trump spent Thanksgiving with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017, a remarkably stupid accusation given that Trump was serving as President at that time and Epstein was a known pedophile.

Tying into this caution is the ongoing BBC controversy over a deceptively edited video in their Panorama documentary, which spliced Trump’s January 6, 2021, speech to misleadingly suggest incitement. 

After the President issued an ultimatum, the BBC apologized, admitting an “error of judgment” and agreeing not to rebroadcast the episode, but rejected demands for compensation, stating there’s “no basis for a defamation claim.” 

Trump, however, brutally rejected the apology, vowing to proceed with a threatened $1 billion lawsuit, calling it insufficient and demanding full accountability. 

This scandal exemplifies how international media is also treading carefully, with the BBC’s partial concession highlighting fears of U.S. legal repercussions. 

President Trump’s successful suits against major networks are fueling this media restraint. In July 2025, CBS/Paramount settled for $16 million over deceptively edited “60 Minutes” footage of Kamala Harris, marking a major win against manipulative reporting.

Similarly, ABC agreed to a $15 million donation to Trump’s presidential library in December 2024 to resolve defamation claims from George Stephanopoulos’s on-air accusations. 

These settlements expose the leftist media’s agenda of biased editing and smears, forcing outlets to rethink their anti-Trump narratives or face financial ruin. 

Beyond these, recent cases abound. Trump filed a $15 billion suit against The New York Times in September for alleged defamation, prompting the paper to issue clarifications in subsequent stories.

In July, he sued The Wall Street Journal for $10 billion over similar claims, leading to heightened editorial scrutiny. 

NPR and PBS have also faced threats, with insiders reporting “tiptoeing” in coverage to avoid litigation. 

Critics note this wave of suits—tying records for 2025—reveals how media giants are now prioritizing legal safety over aggressive reporting.

These developments underscore how Trump’s legal offensives are dismantling the leftist media’s unchecked bias, forcing accountability and exposing their agenda of manufactured scandals to undermine America First policies.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 11:40

The Pentagon's European Drawdown Won't Alleviate Russia's Security Concerns

The Pentagon's European Drawdown Won't Alleviate Russia's Security Concerns

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Romanian Defense Minister recently confirmed that the US will withdraw around half of its 2,000 troops as part of its plans to reprioritize Asia, which could include drawdowns from other countries as well.

It was assessed last February that “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5” since retaining a minimal presence in this region is psychologically reassuring for those countries that fear Russia and can also function as “a tripwire for deterring aggression”.

This is especially true for aspiring regional leader Poland. Trump said in early September that the US might even deploy more troops there upon request, and while that hasn’t yet happened, Poland’s Defense Ministry confirmed that US troop numbers remain stable amidst the latest news from Romania. Those two and the Baltic States also host multiple other allies’ forces, including nuclear-armed France’s and the UK’s, whose roles complement the US’ previously mentioned “deterrence” one.

Western, Central, and Eastern Europe are also being knit together through the “military Schengen”, which refers to the initiative for facilitating the flow of troops and equipment between members, while the last two regions are becoming more integrated through the “Three Seas Initiative”. Poland, which commands NATO’s third-largest army, plays a crucial role in both by connecting “mainland Europe” with the Baltic States. This explains why it’s tipped to become the US’ top European partner in the future.

From the US’ evolving perspective after the past 3.5 years of proxy warfare, its European junior partners are finally shouldering more of the burden for containing Russia, so the presence of so many of its troops on the continent is no longer required except for “deterrence” purposes. They’re much better put to use in Asia, as policy planners now seem to believe, for encouraging its junior partners there to replicate their European counterparts by shouldering more of the burden for containing China.

So long as nuclear-armed France and the UK retain their own military presences in the countries from which the US draws down its troops, then the US can expect them to “Lead From the Front” in a crisis while the US would only need to “Lead From Behind”. Those two and Poland would play the foremost roles in future tensions with Russia while the US would provide back-end support through logistics and intelligence. It could also directly escalate on its own if the going gets tough for its junior partners.

Minimal US troops along NATO’s eastern flank would draw lines that Russian troops would be deterred from crossing on pain of drawing America directly into the conflict. The direct involvement of French and UK troops in the region would complement that role by reminding Russia that the conflict could go nuclear so all sides should keep it conventional. If the crisis further worsens, then they could rattle their nuclear sabers, especially if they by then transferred some of their nukes to Germany and/or Poland.

The evolving geopolitical, military, and strategic situation in Europe is therefore such that the US is offloading most of the responsibilities for containing Russia onto Poland, the UK, France, and Germany. Of these four, Poland is the lynchpin upon which the success of this EU-fronted but US-backed containment plan is dependent for military logistical reasons, thus meaning that its ties with Russia will greatly determine the future of war and peace in Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict finally ends.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 09:20

Goldman Sees Brighter US Housing Outlook Taking Shape For 2026

Goldman Sees Brighter US Housing Outlook Taking Shape For 2026

Conversations around the housing market this week revolved around Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte floating the idea of 50-year mortgages, pitched by the Trump administration as a clever way to make homes more "affordable" by lowering monthly payments, expanding access, and attracting more buyers. But stretching mortgages out for roughly 65% of the average U.S. life expectancy is not affordable in the long run.

Our conversations with readers this week focused on the deepening downturn in the home improvement industry. This slide could deepen into a sharper contraction and may signal continued cooling in the housing market:

For more color on the housing market, we turn to Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane, who told clients Thursday the housing backdrop is set to improve in 2026, with mortgage rates drifting toward 6.15% and pent-up demand helping home-price appreciation recover.

Here is McShane's view on the housing market, based on her upgrade of flooring company Floor & Décor from "Sell" to "Neutral" as she sees a better 2026 environment: slightly improving housing turnover, stabilizing comps, margin recovery, and potential market-share gains as competitive pressures ease: 

  1. The housing market is anticipated to experience a more favorable environment in FY26 and our economists forecast mortgage rates at year-end 2025 and 2026 to be 6.25% and 6.15%, respectively. Our economists noted if mortgage rates remain around 6.15% (in line with their expectation), the pace of home price appreciation is likely to start to recover in 2026 due to pent-up housing demand. Our economists expect housing turnover to be flat to marginally higher in FY25 and projects a +5-7% increase in 2026 compared to 2025. Floor & Décor's comparable store sales (comps) are highly correlated to housing turnover, as replacing floors is one of the first improvements many new or existing home purchasers undertake. The company's focus on a growing Pro customer base and high-margin design services also provides growth opportunities as the market recovers.

  2. Our economists have noted that HELOC deal issuance has increased since 2023, with YTD 2025 (until 10/8/25) volume reaching post-GFC highs. The seemingly renewed interest in HELOC securitization is likely a function of both increased HELOC usage by homeowners and greater demand from investors in the securitization market. Our economists now suggest potential for significant further growth in HELOC in the coming years and expect home equity debt outstanding growth rate to tick-up slightly to around $15-17 bn/quarter in 2026 (vs. $14bn/quarter over the past 5 quarters), driven by lower financing rates and increased demand for tapping into equity. In spite of this higher activity level however, the company continues to see homeowners favor smaller-scope projects amid affordability constraints. However, we believe FND is positioned to capture potential HELOC-driven upside as macro transmission improves.

GS economists forecast 30 year fixed mortgage rate at year-end 2025 and 2026 to be 6.25% and 6.15%, respectively

Mortgage rates have started to show a declining trend

Housing turnover remains at historic low levels but could grow in FY26

Housing Affordability Index (Monthly NSA) vs. FND com

Remodeling activity picked up sequentially in 3Q

McShane's view gives readers her framework for what to expect in the spring selling season, which begins in 3 to 4 months. 

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can access the full note and the complete chart pack in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 08:45

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Free To Leave France As Travel Ban Lifted: Report

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Free To Leave France As Travel Ban Lifted: Report

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

French authorities have reportedly lifted Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s travel ban amid an ongoing investigation into the messaging platform.

Durov had been ordered to remain in France following his arrest in Paris in August last year, facing multiple charges related to his operation of Telegram.

Durov was previously granted temporary exemptions, and French authorities have now fully lifted restrictions on his travel, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

As part of the latest decision, dated Monday, officials also removed the requirement for Durov to regularly check in at a local police station, the report said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Investigation still ongoing

The report did not mention any details regarding the French investigation into Telegram, hinting that the case is still active.

According to a statement on preliminary charges by France’s Prosecutor’s Office, Durov was last year accused of facilitating a platform that enables illicit transactions. The prosecutors said the Telegram CEO is facing up to 10 years in prison, in addition to a fine of $550,000.

Pavel Durov met with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Digital Bridge 2025 forum in October. Source: Press office of the President of Kazakhstan (Aqorda)

Telegram and Durov have repeatedly denied the accusations, highlighting the messenger’s compliance with industry standards and the laws of the European Union.

While denying the accusations, Durov has consistently criticized the French government, including French President Emmanuel Macron, regarding what Durov has described as the country’s political trajectory around censorship.

“Emmanuel Macron isn’t making the right choices. I’m very disappointed. France is getting weaker and weaker,” Durov said in an interview with French outlet Le Point in June.

In October, Durov warned of the potential consequences of the EU’s Chat Control proposal, urging the world to fight against the “dystopian” measures proposed by the EU.

“Germany is persecuting anyone who dares to criticize officials on the Internet. The UK is imprisoning thousands for their tweets. France is criminally investigating tech leaders who defend freedom and privacy,” Durov wrote in an X post on Oct. 9.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 08:10

A US Think-Tank Considers Armenia & Kazakhstan To Be Key Players For Containing Russia

A US Think-Tank Considers Armenia & Kazakhstan To Be Key Players For Containing Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

They’re fearmongering about Russia’s intentions towards those two in parallel with proposing closer US ties with them.

The Washington Post recently published a piece fearmongering that Putin’s “next stop” after Ukraine might be Armenia and/or Kazakhstan, which they released in the run-up to the C5+1 Summit in DC between the five Central Asian leaders and Trump. It was written by Seth Cropsey and Joseph Epstein, the president of the Yorktown Institute and the director of the Turan Research Center therein. Their organization focuses on “great power competition”, “military supremacy”, and “alliance-building”.

Those two’s mentioning of Armenia and Kazakhstan in this provocative context, as well as the timing of their article, was deliberate.

The first functions as the irreplaceable transit state along the new “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), which was assessed here in the summer shortly after its announcement as threatening to undermine Russia’s regional position. The fear is that NATO-member Turkiye will inject Western influence into the South Caucasus and Central Asia via this route.

Accordingly, Kazakhstan figures prominently in these plans since it’s the most prosperous country in the latter region and also shares the world’s longest land border with Russia, NATO’s rival.

It was assessed earlier this month that “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery” through TRIPP’s acceleration of those two regions’ engagement with the West. Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned about the bloc’s plans there as well as its de facto EU twin’s.

Armenia and Kazakhstan’s crucial roles in facilitating the Turkish-led injection of Western influence into their respective interconnected regions at the increasing expense of Russian interests there explains why Cropsey and Epstein decided to fearmonger that those two might be Putin’s “next stop” after Ukraine. The timing of their provocative piece importantly coincided with the C5+1 Summit and was therefore meant to influence off-the-record conversations there and/or Western reporting about the event.

According to them, last summer’s unrest in Armenia was a failed Kremlin-backed coup while Kazakhstan is being targeted through less visible forms of pressure such as the creation of pro-Russian influence networks, which they imply could precede a Donbass-like ethno-regional conflict in the north. The first was actually a patriotic revolt over the perception that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sold Armenia out to its Turkic neighbors while the second is based on unverified leaked reports and attendant speculation.

The reality is that Russia accepts that the US successfully expanded its influence in the South Caucasus and respects Kazakhstan’s multi-alignment policy. The only concern that it has is that extra-regional actors like the US, EU, NATO, and Turkiye – all of whom it’s fighting by proxy in Ukraine to varying extents – could exploit those two and their regions to threaten its national security as part of their rivalry. That would risk expanding their proxy war from Eastern Europe to the South Caucasus and/or Central Asia.

Cropsey and Epstein propose more trade and investment between the US, Armenia and Kazakhstan, and their regions, which sounds innocent but could lead to or disguise closer cooperation on other issues like security that come at Russia’s expense. What they want to do is manipulate the perceptions of Russia’s partners against it and/or provoke an overreaction from Russia that ruins their relations for the same divide-and-rule ends, which is why it’s crucial that they’re aware of this so they can avoid falling for it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 07:00

US Needs More Gas Infrastructure, Storage To Support Electric Grid: NARUC

US Needs More Gas Infrastructure, Storage To Support Electric Grid: NARUC

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

Summary:

  • The United States needs additional natural gas pipeline infrastructure and storage opportunities to reliably meet the growing demand for energy, a National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners task force report concluded on Wednesday.

  • NARUC’s Gas-Electric Alignment for Reliability task force, or GEAR, was formed in 2023 in an effort to improve coordination between the two interwoven energy sectors, with an ultimate goal of bolstering grid reliability.

  • The report includes nine recommendations but stopped short of advocating for a Gas Reliability Organization akin to electric grid efforts, and concluded changes to the gas-electric market day and force majeure contract provisions were unnecessary.

The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners on Nov. 12, 2025, published a report concluding greater harmonization between the gas and power sectors is needed “to ensure reliable and affordable electricity service.” More gas pipeline infrastructure will be key to the effort, the report said.

Rising electricity demand and a reliance on gas-fired generation has at times left the power sector scrambling when necessary fuel was not available.

During Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, some Texas electric companies cut power to gas production and transportation facilities as part of their emergency conservation response. That reduced fuel supplies to gas-fired power plants, contributing to energy shortages and blackouts. Almost 250 people in Texas died in the storm.

And in 2022, unplanned generator outages reached 90,500 MW during Winter Storm Elliott, with gas fuel supply issues accounting for 20% of unplanned generating unit outages, derates and failures to start, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp.

The GEAR report parses diverse policy perspectives around the future of gas and gas infrastructure expansion, NARUC said. However, task force participants found common ground “on the need for harmonization between the electric and natural gas sectors to ensure reliable and affordable electricity service,” the report said.

“The need for harmonization is crucial, regardless of one’s long-term perspective about future energy policy in various regions of the country,” it said.

Recommendations include: creation of a natural gas “readiness forum”; development of additional gas pipeline infrastructure and gas storage opportunities; new and enhanced market tools to improve supplier performance in extreme weather; demand response initiatives for gas utilities; and market changes to incentivize gas pipeline capacity releases.

Regulators and grid operators “should apply a strategic approach to expand opportunities for increased or new storage investment consistent with empowering end-users to exert greater control over supply needs,” the report found.

There was some support for the formation of a Gas Reliability Organization, similar to the North American Electric Reliability Corp., but not enough to advance the recommendation, the GEAR report noted. “A majority of members [concluded] that such an option (on a national, regional or state basis) is unnecessary or not the best means to efficiently enhance gas-electric reliability,” it said.

Similarly, discussions around aligning the timing of gas or electric days were not advanced. Gas and electric market schedules are typically several hours apart, though the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has historically tried to better align them.

“While it is obvious that the current bifurcated system is not how anyone would design the combined system from scratch, we are unaware of any systemwide outage that has occurred due to scheduling issues or mismatches,” the report said.

And possible changes to standard force majeure contract provisions, which cover supply disruptions, were found to be “neither viable nor productive,” the report said.

The task force noted that the primary driver for changes to the force majeure provisions “is aimed at expanded winterization of the production system,” and noted there are two recommendations that “facilitate a better understanding of force majeure and provide greater opportunities to mitigate its use.”

The recommendations provide an “ideal starting point for state regulators to ponder future steps to enhance reliability,” Dwight Keen, vice chair of the GEAR working group, said in a statement. Keen is also a regulator with the Kansas Corporation Commission.

A coalition of gas-electric groups supported the report’s findings. “The biggest challenge affecting interoperability across the systems is not operational; it is economic,” the Reliability Alliance said in a statement,

The group consists of the Electric Power Supply Association, Interstate Natural Gas Association of America and Natural Gas Supply Association.

“Competitive power suppliers have invested significantly to strengthen winter readiness, but we need continued alignment between gas and electric systems,” EPSA President and CEO Todd Snitchler said in a statement. “That’s the measure of success we’re all working toward, and GEAR’s work has been an important step to bridge that gap.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 21:00

Epstein Backfire Intensifies: He Was Live-Texting With House Democrat During 2019 'Get Trump' Hearing

Epstein Backfire Intensifies: He Was Live-Texting With House Democrat During 2019 'Get Trump' Hearing

What a week in Epstein news... 

After Democrats dumped a new trove of emails to try and show that President Trump was much better friends with the dead sex offender than he let on, we've learned a few things. 

1. Trump was clearly pals with Epstein for a while. We've seen endless pictures of them hanging out. 

2. They had a serious falling out, as evidence (in the new emails) by... 

3. Epstein was helping Democrats with their efforts to hurt Trump with dirt, which we now learn extended to...

4. Texting with Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands) during a 2019 congressional hearing with Michael Cohen...

Plaskett, for those who didn't know, previously served in the Virgin Islands government - helping to give Epstein tax benefits, and worked for Epstein's fixer on the island before she was elected to Congress.

Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands) attends a March 2019 House hearing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)

As the Washington Post notes:  

In the texts, Epstein appeared to be watching the February 2019 hearing in real time and at one point informed Plaskett — whose name is redacted from the documents — that Cohen had brought up former Trump executive assistant Rhona Graff in his testimony. At the time, Cohen was testifying before the House Oversight Committee against his former boss, alleging that Trump was racist, manipulated financial records and directed hush money payments to cover up his extramarital affairs — allegations Trump denied. The president said on social media that Cohen was “lying” before testimony began.

“Cohen brought up RONA - keeper of the secrets,” Epstein texted, misspelling Graff’s first name.

“RONA??” Plaskett responded. “Quick I’m up next is that an acronym,” she added, suggesting she would question Cohen soon.

In response, Plaskett's office said: "During the hearing, Congresswoman Plaskett received texts from staff, constituents and the public at large offering advice, support and in some cases partisan vitriol, including from Epstein," adding "As a former prosecutor she welcomes information that helps her get at the truth and took on the GOP that was trying to bury the truth. The congresswoman has previously made clear her long record combating sexual assault and human trafficking, her disgust over Epstein’s deviant behavior and her support for his victims."

lol... lmao even. 

The emails reveal that Plaskett texted Epstein first before the meeting started that day...

The messages show that Plaskett texted Epstein before the hearing started that day, at 7:55 a.m. Eastern time, to tell him: “He’ll talk about his grades”

Epstein replied a minute later: “what privilege stands behind the none release of college transcripts?”

And that he may have influenced her questions: 

Hes opened the door to questions re who are the other henchmen at trump org,” Epstein texted Plaskett at 12:25 p.m.

“Yup. Very aware and waiting my turn,” she responded.

When Plaskett questioned Cohen during the hearing, she asked about Trump associates that he had mentioned previously.

“Are there other people that we should be meeting with?” Plaskett asked.

“So Allen Weisselberg is the chief financial officer in The Trump Organization,” Cohen began to reply.

“You’ve got to quickly give us as many names as you can so we can get to them,” Plaskett interjected. “Is Ms. Rhona, what is Ms. Rhona’s— …?”

“Rhona Graff is the — Mr. Trump’s executive assistant … She was — her office is directly next to his, and she’s involved in a lot that went on,” Cohen replied.

So Jeffrey Epstein was live-texting a Democrat lawmaker during a 'get Trump' hearing. Right...

All Trump has to do at this point, after apologizing to MTG and Thomas Massie (WTF) of course, is admit he was buddies with Epstein, say he didn't bang underage girls, and point to all the evidence Democrats just dropped that's blowing up in their faces. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 20:25

Obamacare Is A Disaster, Just As Expected

Obamacare Is A Disaster, Just As Expected

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

Just over 15 years ago, when the Democrat-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate were debating the healthcare proposals offered by the Democrat president, nearly everyone on the political right was unified in opposition. It may well have been the last time the right was united on anything, but it was indeed unified and resolute.

Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (MN) warned that “This monstrosity of a bill will not only destroy the private healthcare market, it will lead to massive increases in premiums and rationed care.” Congressman (and eventual vice-presidential nominee and Speaker of the House) Paul Ryan (WI) complained that “This bill is a fiscal Frankenstein. It’s a government takeover that will explode costs and kill jobs.” Senator (and Republican Leader) Mitch McConnell (KY) insisted that Americans “want reforms that lower costs, not a trillion-dollar government experiment.”

Right-leaning commentators like George Will and Charles Krauthammer agreed, not only with each other but with Republicans in Congress as well. Krauthammer, in particular, argued that President Obama’s promise to “bend the cost curve” down was pure, unadulterated, and extensively documented fantasy. National Review, much maligned among Trump supporters these days, dedicated most of an issue to exposing and forecasting Obamacare’s fiscal absurdities and the likelihood that it would result in lower quality of care, increased taxes, and exploding insurance premiums. Even the Heritage Foundation—in the news lately for purportedly exacerbating rifts in the conservative coalition—likewise agreed with everyone in the movement, insisting that Obamacare was a disaster waiting to happen and would keep none of the promises that it made, all while destroying what was good and valuable in the private insurance market.

More than a decade later, when it was clear that the system was in trouble and that only greater government intervention and spending could save it, Heritage (in the form of Robert Moffit, Edmund Haislmaier, and Nina Owcharenko Schaefer) took something of a victory lap, detailing Obamacare’s manifest failures and arguing that it was long past time to scrap the whole experiment.

“The facts,” the Heritage analysts noted, “are in.”

  • The ACA dramatically increased health insurance premiums and cost-sharing in the individual market….

  • The ACA collapsed insurer competition in the nation’s individual markets….

  • The ACA failed to meet official enrollment targets in the individual markets….

  • The ACA is pricing middle-class Americans out of individual market coverage….

  • The ACA expanded government coverage while wrecking the private individual health insurance market….

  • The ACA compromised access to care for persons—including those with preexisting medical conditions—enrolled in the nation’s individual markets….

  • The ACA failed—and failed miserably—to attract young people into the exchange insurance pools….

  • The ACA Medicaid expansion prioritizes able-bodied adults, many of whom are working, over the elderly, the disabled, and poor women and children….

  • The ACA did not, as predicted, “bend the curve” of America’s healthcare spending….

  • The ACA’s vaunted delivery reforms did not yield the anticipated savings.

Everything Republicans warned would happen did happen. And the Democrats’ response was to offer a massive “temporary” increase in subsidies to help paper over the failures. Again, every sentient person in the country insisted that doing so would be a disaster, that the subsidies would only increase costs, and that they would not be temporary.

The Democrats didn’t listen, however. They didn’t listen in 2009 and 2010 when Congress initially debated and then passed Obamacare—without a single Republican vote in either house. They didn’t listen in 2020, when they insisted they needed expanded subsidies to address the financial hardships created by COVID-19. They didn’t listen in 2023, when they extended the COVID-era subsidies as part of the inaptly named Inflation Reduction Act, at a cost of $64 billion. And they’re still not listening now. Indeed, they just engineered the longest shutdown in American government history because they have no intention of ever listening or ever admitting that perhaps the right was absolutely spot-on in its predictions about Obamacare.

Worse still, in addition to sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring the experiences of the last decade and a half, the Democrats are actually blaming the Republicans for all of the healthcare system’s problems, insisting that the GOP is somehow responsible for their delusions. As Senator Bernie Sanders, the ideological spirit animal of today’s Democrats, put it, “This government shutdown is all about whether Republicans will get away with raising healthcare premiums by 75% for 20 million Americans and throwing 15 million people off their healthcare.”

Over the years, countless conservative commentators have played upon the famous line in the movie “Love Story,” arguing that “being a liberal means never having to say you’re sorry.” More accurately, they would note that being a liberal/leftist/statist means never having to say you were wrong or admit that your utopian dreams were, in reality, nightmares. This is a feature, not a bug, of leftism. Just as today’s young leftists insist that communism can work, despite its many high-profile and bloody failures, because “real communism has never been tried,” so the Democrats insist that Obamacare can work if it’s tweaked and adjusted in just the right ways.

Although Jean-Jacques Rousseau shares the title “father of the modern left” with many of his Enlightenment contemporaries, he clearly did more than most to undermine and destroy the existing social and political orders and to discombobulate the West. As Nietzsche argued, Rousseau was “the greatest revolutionizing force of the modern era.”

Rousseau did not believe in the concept of Original Sin and insisted that the very idea was invented to keep man oppressed, silenced, and miserable under the thumb of society’s imperfect institutions. “Everything is good as it comes from the hands of the creator,” he wrote in the opening pages of Emile, but “everything degenerates in the hands of man.”

As a result, Rousseau and his followers saw society’s institutions as the foremost threat to man’s freedom and happiness. If man is good by nature, yet he behaves poorly under the direction and guidance of specific institutions, then the institutions, by definition, must be corrupt. They are clearly the cause of the aberrant behavior and must, therefore, be reformed—as thoroughly and as frequently as necessary to enable man to live as he should in a collective society. As the historian Paul Johnson noted in his Intellectuals, to Rousseau, society or “culture” was an “evolving, artificial construct….” But it nevertheless “dictated man’s behavior,” meaning that “you could improve, indeed totally transform, his behavior by changing the culture and the competitive forces, which produced it…” In short, according to Rousseau, one can change the world by successfully changing its institutions—over and over and over again, until you get it right, without ever having to say you’re sorry for getting it wrong.

Normal people, of course, think that the institutions created by Obamacare are destructive, costly, and ultimately ineffective. And we know they believe this because so many of them said so before the system was ever put in place. The Democrats disagree, and they will not be dissuaded from their course by any appeals to theory or experience. They want to keep the institutions and keep reforming them until they inevitably find the right formula.

They’ll get it right next time. Trust them. Oh, and in the meantime, pony up.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 19:50

Redistricting Could Determine 2026 Elections: Here's What Each State Is Doing

Redistricting Could Determine 2026 Elections: Here's What Each State Is Doing

Authored by Jackson Richman and Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The future control of the U.S. House of Representatives hangs in the balance as states move to redistrict their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

A spate of redistricting efforts began earlier this year when Texas approved a map that would grow Republicans’ control of the state’s House delegation. California then responded in kind, approving a map to increase Democrats’ control by the same margins.

Since then, a flurry of other states have finalized redistricting, are moving toward doing so, or are considering proposals.

As things stand, Republicans enjoy a slight advantage, standing to gain three more seats than Democrats.

Here’s a breakdown of which states have been doing what, how the math works, the local legal challenges and politics, and what it might mean for the midterms.

States That Have Redistricted Their Maps Texas

The Lone Star State added five new Republican-leaning districts in response to a letter from the Department of Justice alleging that some districts in the state were unconstitutionally drawn by grouping minorities into a majority. President Donald Trump signaled his support for the state’s redistricting.

The redistricting was not without a battle, though. State Democrats at one point left Texas to prevent a quorum in the state legislature.

The new map prompted Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a Democrat, to announce his retirement.

SEAT CHANGE: R+5

California

Voters approved a ballot measure on Nov. 4 to counter Texas’s changes, adding five new Democratic-leaning districts in line with a request from California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The measure, Proposition 50, garnered 64.6 percent support from the state electorate.

Proposition 50 is the subject of a lawsuit by the California Republican Party. The Department of Justice has joined the suit.

SEAT CHANGE: D+5

Missouri

A newly drawn map in the state could help the GOP pick up an additional seat.

Gov. Mike Kehoe signed off on the new map in September after the state legislature approved it.

“Missourians are more alike than we are different, and our values, across both sides of the aisle, are closer to each other than those of the congressional representation of states like New York, California, and Illinois,” he said at the time.

The seat targeted belongs to Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.).

The St. Louis seat, held by Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), is protected under the Voting Rights Act.

SEAT CHANGE: R+1

North Carolina

Likewise, North Carolina’s new map—approved by the legislature in October—could give the GOP an additional seat.

Although the state has voted for Trump and Republicans in most elections in recent years, North Carolina is often considered a swing state.

Currently, the GOP controls 10 of the state’s 14 congressional seats.

Only one of those seats, held by Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), is a potential target. Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat, did not have the power to veto the new map.

SEAT CHANGE: R+1

Utah

After a judge struck down the map created by Republicans after the 2020 census, the Beehive State created a new Salt Lake City-based competitive seat for Democrats.

Currently, the state’s four congressional districts are split between Salt Lake City and the outlying rural areas. Redistricting would dilute the congressional map and its lines.

Republicans are planning to appeal the decision to the Utah Supreme Court. Former Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) could run for the seat.

SEAT CHANGE: D+1

States Considering Redistricting Their Maps Colorado

Democrat gubernatorial candidate Phil Weiser, currently the Centennial State’s attorney general, expressed support for a possible constitutional amendment, which would need to be voted on by voters.

Colorado has become increasingly a safe Democratic state, with Republicans having last won the state in the 2004 election.

It is unknown which districts would be targeted, though Colorado’s congressional delegation includes four Republicans: Reps. Lauren Boebert, Jeff Crank, Jeff Hurd, and Gabe Evans.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, a special committee has been formed to take up the redistricting issue.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has expressed approval for redistricting.

“I think the state is malapportioned,” he said. “So I do think it would be appropriate to do a redistricting in the mid-decade. So we’re working through what that would look like, but I can tell you, just look at how the population has shifted in different parts of the state over a four-to-five-year period. It’s been really significant.”

Florida has shifted politically in recent years, moving from a swing state in presidential elections to a solidly Republican state.

Currently, Republicans control 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts.

Illinois

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has urged Democrats in the Land of Lincoln to redraw the district map.

“We are going to support efforts to make sure that there are fair maps all across the country in the face of what Republicans are endeavoring to do,” he told reporters, accusing Republicans of gerrymandering.

Gov. JB Pritzker has said that all options are on the table. This could include potentially changing Republican districts to include larger portions of blue-leaning Chicago.

In the Democrat-dominated state, Republicans hold three of the state’s 17 congressional seats.

New York

Democrat state lawmakers have suggested a constitutional amendment that would need to be approved twice by the legislature and then by voters.

Gov. Kathy Hochul has expressed support for redistricting in the solidly Democratic state.

“All’s fair in love and war. We’re following the rules. We do redistricting every 10 years,” she said. “But if there’s other states violating the rules and are trying to give themselves an advantage, all I’ll say is, I’m going to look at it closely with Hakeem Jeffries.”

Democrats currently control 19 of the state’s 26 congressional districts.

Louisiana

Lawmakers are facing court challenges to Louisiana’s current map, approved in January 2024.

Some voters brought suit against the map, claiming it violates the Voting Rights Act. The status of this challenge is in limbo as lawmakers await the federal Supreme Court’s decision, but steps have been taken to push back primary elections in case the maps need to be redrawn.

Democrats hold two of the state’s six congressional seats.

Maryland

On Nov. 4, Gov. Wes Moore launched the Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission to consider redrawing the state’s maps in favor of Democrats.

However, the push has faced challenges in the state Legislature, with the Democratic state Senate president rejecting the notion outright.

Rep. Andy Harris is the state’s sole Republican member.

States Moving to Redistrict Their Maps Virginia

Following the 2025 elections, Democrats in Virginia now have a clear path to move forward with redistricting efforts in the commonwealth to favor Democratic candidates.

Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger will enter office in January with control of the governor’s mansion, a Democratic lieutenant governor and attorney general, and 64 Democratic seats in the state’s House of Delegates.

Democrats already hold the Senate, where seats weren’t on the ballot in 2025.

Currently, Democrats control six of the state’s 11 congressional districts.

Ohio

On Oct. 31, the Ohio Redistricting Commission unanimously gave the green light to a new congressional district map put forward by the state’s GOP majority.

The new maps, if finalized, could increase the number of Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation from 10 to 12.

Ohio was legally required to change its maps ahead of the 2026 election because the previous maps were only valid for four years, given that they had failed to win bipartisan support following the 2020 census.

Democrats see the current map under consideration as their best option to avoid a potentially worse outcome.

States That Have Ruled It Out Kansas

After pushing for months to bring Republican lawmakers on board with redrawing Kansas’s congressional maps, a push for a special session was abandoned on Nov. 4.

Republicans failed to garner enough support among state House Republicans to redraw the maps, which currently give Republicans 3 seats to 1 for Democrats.

House Speaker Dan Hawkins announced that there were not enough votes in the state’s lower chamber to warrant convening a special session in November, meaning that the issue has, at least for the time being, been ruled out in the state.

Nebraska

Although Gov. Jim Pillen has said he’s “open” to redrawing the maps, lawmakers in Nebraska’s state legislature don’t share his stance.

Such a redraw would doubtless seek to shore up GOP support in outgoing Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) Omaha-based district. But at present, there is too much GOP opposition in the state’s unicameral legislature to move forward with any such bid.

At present, any push to redraw the state’s maps seems to have far less than the 33 votes that would be needed to overcome a potential filibuster.

New Hampshire

Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said now is not the time to redistrict.

“The timing is off for this, because we are literally in the middle of the census period,” she said in an interview with WMUR. “And when I talk to people in New Hampshire ... it’s not on the top of their priority list.”

Though Republicans have enjoyed victories on a local level in New Hampshire, the New England swing state has consistently voted with its neighbors in favor of the Democratic Party at the federal level.

Democrats currently control the state’s two congressional districts as well as the state’s two Senate seats.

Indiana

The Trump administration’s efforts to persuade Indiana to redraw its maps hit a major roadblock on Nov. 14. State Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray said in a statement that the votes are not there to change the Hoosier State’s congressional map.

“Over the last several months, Senate Republicans have given very serious and thoughtful consideration to the concept of redrawing our state’s congressional maps,” he said. “Today, I’m announcing there are not enough votes to move that idea forward, and the Senate will not reconvene in December.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 18:40

October Foreclosure Filings Jump 20% YoY

October Foreclosure Filings Jump 20% YoY

Last month we noted that US foreclosure filings jumped 17% in Q3 of 2025 vs. Q3 2024, with Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, Illinois and Delaware leading the pack, based on research by ATTOM. 

Now, ATTOM is reporting a 20% monthly spike in October vs. 2024 - marking the eighth straight month of YoY increases. 

Breaking it down:

  • There were 36,766 US properties with some type of foreclosure filing in October, which include notices of default, scheudled auctions, or bank repossessions - a 3% rise over September of this year, and a 19% jump vs. Oct. 2024.
  • Foreclosure starts - the initial phase of the process, were up 6% vs. September and were 20% higher than October 2024. 
  • Completed foreclosures - the final phase, jumped 32% YoY for October. 

That said, Attom CEO Rober Barber doesn't think it's a big deal.

"Even with these increases, activity remains well below historic highs. The current trend appears to reflect a gradual normalization in foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust and some homeowners continue to navigate higher housing and borrowing costs," said Barber. 

Similar to last month's report, Florida, South Carolina and Illinois led the nation in state foreclosure filings. City-wise, the following metro areas led the pack:

  • Tampa, FL
  • Jacksonville, FL
  • Orlando, FL
  • Riverside, CA
  • Cleveland, OH

When it comes to completed foreclosures, Texas, California and Florida had the most - suggesting that those states will see more inventory available for sale at distressed prices. As CNBC notes, there's strong demand for houses in these price ranges, so it's likely that those foreclosed properties won't last long on the market. 

Putting things in perspective

All of the above translates to less than 0.5% of mortgages in foreclosure. At the peak of the Great Recession, over 4% of mortgages were in foreclosure - so we have a ways to go, and are currently well below the historic average of between 1% and 1.5%. 

Also right now, 4% of mortgages are delinquent, which as 12% at the peak of the financial crisis.

What is concerning are FHA loans: 

"So, no foreclosure tsunami to worry about," said  Rick Sharga, CEO of CJ Patrick Co., a real estate market intelligence firm. "That said, there are a few areas of concern. [Federal Housing Administration] delinquencies are over 11%, and account for 52% of all seriously delinquent loans; we’re likely to see more FHA loans in foreclosure in 2026." 

Sharga also pointed out that states which are experiencing falling home prices with rising insurance premiums are seeing an uptick in defaults. 

At the end of the day, in most major metros - anyone looking to buy a home is still better off renting that same home for a fraction of the mortgage, property tax, and maintenance - with the wildcard of course being the potential for capital appreciation. 

Update: As ZeroHedge reader Montana Cowboy notes in the comments below - it's even worse than that...

The real problem arrives when the lender becomes the owner. This happens when the lender's demand exceeds the highest bid.

A foreclosure is not automatically a process where the lender becomes the owner. A foreclosure is a forced public sale. The lender makes the first bid for the amount owed, which includes missed payments, unpaid property tax, forced insurance, foreclosure costs, and other costs. It typically comes to about 110% of the loan balance but can dramatically exceed that amount if the lender stalls. If there is no cash buyer for that total amount, the lender is the highest bidder and becomes the owner. 

The fun really starts when the lender becomes the owner. GAAP and FAFSA accounting rules permit that lender to hide the loss by presuming the value of the property exceeds the lender's investment. Once the lender re-sells that property, there is no way to hide the loss on the lender's books. This is why lenders delay foreclosures, sometimes for years. They don't want to start the process because they know where it ends. It gets worse if the market is declining. Foreclosures accelerate that decline by increasing supply.

The foreclosures reflected in the article do not account for loans in trouble where the initial step of foreclosure (a Notice of Default) is being deliberately delayed. Things are much worse than this article shows.

Let's Compare

Take a $2.2 million home in San Diego, for example... Someone with excellent credit will pay $13,859 per month when you include taxes, HOA, and home insurance, and cough up $439,000 for the 20% down payment. 

If interest rates drop to 4%, you're still paying $11,480 per month...

Meanwhile, this almost identically sized house around the corner (literally) rents for $6,200 / month -  which is $7,659 less per month than the mortgage (or $91,908 less per year) and includes a landlord to pay for that broken washing machine or whatever, plus you can bail when the neighbor kid drops a 2000W stereo in his Acura you can hear from 3 blocks away coming home from his Drakkar Noir-drenched attempt to get laid in the Gaslamp (did not get laid).

Either way you're paying for a McMansion on a postage stamp.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 18:05

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