Futures Erase Overnight Gains As July 9 Trade Deadline Looms

US equity futures are flat, after trading in a narrow overnight range, with small caps outperforming as we see more signs of a Value rotation as H2 kicks off and after yesterday's dramatic momentum plunge. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the red, reversing an earlier 0.3% gain as President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline gets ever closer — Trump said on Tuesday he won’t delay the date for imposing higher levies on trading partners; Nasdaq futures drop 0.1% with Mag7 names mixed in premarket trading. Futures for the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.9% to outperform as Tuesday’s rotation out of high-momentum stocks extended, which helped Cyclicals led by Financials continue to outperform.  European equities advanced 0.4%. Bond yields are higher as the curve bear steepens and USD catches a bid which accelerates as US traders walk in. Commodities are rallying across all 3 complexes, with Brent trading back over $68. Yesterday, stocks fell into the bell on Trump comments about not extending the July 9 deadline and possibly not reaching a deal with Japan but recovered their initial losses. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP though it has not been a reliable predictor of NFP. 

In premarket trading,Apple climbs 0.7% following an upgrade at Jefferies (from Sell to Hold) while Tesla (TSLA) rises 0.8% as the company saw its first increase in vehicle deliveries from its Shanghai factory this year. The rest of the Mag 7 is mixed (Amazon -0.2%, Meta -0.1%, Alphabet -0.9%, Nvidia -0.6%, Microsoft -0.2%). Here are some other notable movers: 

• BrightView (BV) declines 8% after the commercial landscaping company cut its revenue guidance for the full year.
• Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) inches 2% higher after KeyBanc initiated coverage of the Mediterranean restaurant chain with a recommendation of overweight as it sees growth opportunities.
• Centene Corp. (CNC) tumbles 27% after the health insurer pulled its 2025 guidance, citing insurance market trends that veered from its assumptions and threaten $1.8 billion in revenue.
• Crocs (CROX) slips 1% after Goldman Sachs started coverage of the footwear company with a sell rating.
• Oscar Health (OSCR) falls 10% as Barclays initiates coverage at underweight, with the broker saying the stock presents assymetric downside risk after shares gained more than 50% in June alone on “speculative retail interest” despite elevated policy risks. Shares are also being hurt after peer Centene withdrew its 2025 guidance.
• Verint Systems (VRNT) gains 9% after Bloomberg News reported that the call-center software maker is in talks with buyout firm Thoma Bravo to acquire the company, according to people familiar, who also said there is no certainty the parties will reach an agreement.

The stocks of US banks including JPMorgan, Goldman and Bank of America all rose in premarket trading after boosting their dividends. Wall Street’s largest lenders passed this year’s Federal Reserve stress test, with regulators softening some requirements set in previous years.

As the US continues talks with key trading partners, Trump has turned up pressure on Japan and reaffirmed he won’t delay his tariff deadline, now just a week away. While markets swung wildly on trade headlines in April, equity indexes are now signaling diminished concern with stocks near record highs. The following comment helps explain why: Trump’s warning to Japan “is a non-event,” said Karen Georges, equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris. “The next two possible catalysts for the markets will be the jobless claims and the deadline for tariff negotiations.”

Elsewhere, data so far this week has affirmed the resilience of the US economy in the face of Trump’s tariff agenda. Wednesday’s ADP Research employment numbers and tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls will offer investors additional insight into the labor market and the likely path of interest rates. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.4%, set for its first gain this week, with mining, bank and energy shares leading the advance. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Santander rises as much as 2.8% after agreeing agreed to buy Banco Sabadell SA’s UK unit for £2.65 billion ($3.64 billion).
• Spectris shares rise as much as 5.3%, trading higher than the value of an agreed offer from KKR, buoyed by the prospect of a bidding war for the company.
• Tate & Lyle shares rise as much as 4.3% after the ingredients company outlined a “clear picture for future growth” at its capital markets event in London on Tuesday, according to analysts at Goodbody.
• Avanza gains as much as 15%, after newspaper Dagens Industri reported its biggest shareholder Sven Hagstromer’s family is in talks with a private equity firm to take the comapny private.
• Alfen shares rose as much as 1.2% after the firm announced Chief Executive Marco Roeleveld will retire early due to his health and depart at the end of this year.
• Hellenic Exchanges Athens shares gain as much as 14%, the most since 2020, as Euronext says it is in talks to buy the Athens stock market operator.
• European mining shares gain, as iron ore and steel surged, after China’s top leadership vowed to crack down on “disorderly” low-price competition and phase out some industrial capacity.
• European renewables stocks rally after a US excise tax seen as an existential threat to the solar and wind industry was stripped from the Senate GOP tax megabill that passed the chamber in a tie-breaking vote Tuesday.
• Bytes Technology shares fall as much as 27%, after the UK software provider issued a profit warning, citing a challenging macroeconomic environment that has led some customers to defer buying decisions.
• Jet2 shares fall as much as 3.7% as Panmure Liberum cuts its rating on the stock to hold from buy, seeing limited upside after the travel firm’s strong re-rating in recent months.
• ConvaTec shares extend decline in biggest two-day drop since August 2021, after the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services filed a proposal for certain chronic care products to be included in the Competitive Bidding Program.
• Greggs shares drop as much as 15% to approach a three-month low after the food-on-the-go retailer said full-year operating profit could be “modestly” below last year due to hot weather in Britain.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities traded in a narrow range as fresh tariff threats from President Donald Trump weighed on sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.5% before paring most of the losses, with Nintendo, Mitsubishi Heavy and Advantest among the biggest drags. Japanese shares slid after Trump threatened to impose levies of 30%-35% on imports amid dim prospects for a deal before next week’s deadline. Benchmarks also declined in South Korea, India, and Indonesia. Trump’s comments spurred caution over a recent rally driven by anticipation of progress in trade deals, hopes for dollar-driven foreign inflows and prospects for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

“There is a lot more risk of things falling apart than is being priced in by the market,” said Zuhair Khan, a fund manager at UBP Investments. “There is always the risk of a policy blunder by either side.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The yen is nursing the largest decline against the greenback among the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% which takes USD/JPY above 144. The pound also underperforms as it weakens 0.4%.

“The dollar usually loses value when the global economy is in decent shape and the Fed is cutting rates,” noted Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Both factors are relevant now.”

In rates, treasuries fall for a second day heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers. US 10-year yields rise 5 bps to 4.29%. European bonds also decline, with gilts faring slightly worse than their German counterparts. UK 10-year borrowing costs rise 4 bps to 4.50%. Swaps now imply about 63 basis points of Fed policy easing by year-end, down from 67 basis points on Tuesday before data unexpectedly showed that US job openings rose to the highest since November.

In commodities, spot gold is steady around $3,342/oz. WTI rises 0.8% to near $66 a barrel.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes June Challenger job cuts (7:30am) and ADP employment change (8:15am); no Fed speakers are scheduled

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 +1.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.28%
• VIX little changed at 16.82
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1191.33
• euro -0.3% at $1.1769
• WTI crude +0.7% at $65.89/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A handful of hard-line House conservatives are threatening to tank a Wednesday procedural vote for the party’s reconciliation bill, a revolt that would bring the lower chamber to a screeching halt and potentially derail GOP leadership’s plan of clearing the legislation by July 4. The Hill
• US House Speaker Johnson said the Senate went a “little further than many of us would have preferred” in amending the bill, according to Punchbowl. It was later reported that US House Speaker Johnson said voting on the bill will be on Thursday at the latest, according to a Fox News interview.
• Punchbowl says the Reconciliation Bill schedule is to bring the US House back at 09:00ET/14:00BST today and vote as soon as possible. Punchbowl spoke to several people on the House GOP whip team Tuesday night, they expressed alarm about what they’re seeing on their whip cards. Sources said that they were racking up no’s from lawmakers who they didn’t expect would be opposed to the bill. Reports that a "bunch" of House Freedom Caucus members are saying they’ll vote no. Elsewhere, on the Democratic leader Jeffries' Magic Minute, sources suggest it will be around one hour long.
• The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low. Politico
• Israel has agreed to “conditions to finalize” a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza according to Trump (Hamas said its ready for a ceasefire, but wants a complete end to the war). NYT
• Private employers in the US probably added 98,000 jobs in June, up from just 37,000 in the previous month, ADP data is expected to show. BBG
• Chinese artificial-intelligence companies are loosening the U.S.’s global stranglehold on AI, challenging American superiority and setting the stage for a global arms race in the technology. OpenAI’s ChatGPT remains the world’s predominant AI consumer chatbot, with 910 million global downloads compared with DeepSeek’s 125 million, but other Chinese companies have started to snatch customers by offering performance that is nearly as good at vastly lower prices. WSJ
• Xi Jinping addressed the price wars that plague many industries in China, saying that enterprises’ “disorderly low-price competition” needs to be regulated. SCMP
• Japan said it’s engaging in trade talks in good faith with the US after Trump reiterated his July 9 deadline. PM Shigeru Ishiba said Japan will work to reduce the deficit, but noted that the US needs to produce cars that meet the country’s safety standards. BBG
• China’s largest ports received almost 1.4 million barrels per day of Iranian crude from January to June, according to Kpler, highlighting a significant gap in US efforts to uphold existing sanctions. BBG
• Crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.42 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January and also cut holdings at the hub close to minimum operating levels of 20 million. BBG 
• Netflix (NFLX) is reportedly discussing music-related events with Spotify (SPOT), via WSJ citing sources.    
• Apple (AAPL) is facing a "hurdle" after supplier Foxconn (2317 TW) has pulled Chinese staff from India, according to Bloomberg.

Tariffs/Trade

• Japan's tariff negotiator Akazawa is arranging a US visit as early as this weekend for trade talks, according to TV Asahi; Japan and the US are continuing vigorous trade talks. Notes that staff level talks were held on June 30th, reiterates that an agreement that would hurt Japan's national interests for the sake of timing should not be made, will not deny possibilities of travelling to the US, but has no specific schedule to do so
• Canada's Ambassador to Washington said Canada still aims to lift all Trump tariffs as part of a deal with the US, according to the Globe and Mail.
• South American bloc Mercosur concluded talks for a free-trade agreement with European bloc EFTA, while the blocs are set to announce finalisation of a free trade agreement on Wednesday, according to Brazilian sources cited by Reuters.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to visit China in August, via SCMP citing sources; his team is reportedly compiling a list of specific "asks" that would seek from China; in turn, Sefcovic has been asked to be more specific with his requests. Chinese investment within Europe is seen as a potential area for discussion. On this, the SCMP piece references EVs and battery plants.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says many customers are reassessing shipment timings in light of potential reintroduction of US-China tariffs in August, making Q3 planning more complex.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric. ASX 200 gained as strength in the mining, materials and real estate sectors offset the losses in tech and financials, but with further upside contained by disappointing Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals data. Nikkei 225 declined amid trade uncertainty after President Trump noted doubts about a deal with Japan and suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark underpinned on return from the holiday closure as gambling stocks surged owing to the jump in Macau gaming revenue for June, while the mainland was contained after the PBoC's open market operations resulted in a net CNY 266.8bln drain.

Top Asian News

• Japanese government issues emergency earthquake warning, near Tokara; with a 5.1 magnitude earthquake reported off the coast of Japan's Kagoshima prefecture, via NHK; Earthquake hit around 15:26 JST (07:26BST). No tsunami warning.

European indices opened in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead. Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%; newsflow has been a little light, primarily focussed on trade. European sectors were entirely in the green, Banks outperforming initially, bolstered by numerous equity specifics; however, strength has faded with sectors now mixed, Real Estate lags given the elevated yield environment.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer won the vote in parliament on welfare reform; was forced to back down on certain aspects of his proposal. Savings under the plan are now expected to be closer to GBP 2bln vs. initially planned GBP 5bln.
• EU reportedly blocks Britain's attempts to join the pan-European trading bloc, according to the FT.
• ECB's Centeno says the ECB remains cautious on the rate path.
• ECB's Rehn says the ECB should be mindful of the risk that inflation stays persistently below 2% target; says joint EU borrowing to finance defence could also boost EUR's role by creating new safe asset.
• ECB's Wunsch says there is an argument for providing a mildly supportive policy stance; not uncomfortable with market rate expectations.
• BoE's Taylor says a soft landing on interest rates is at risk, don't think bigger cuts are needed or desirable. UK neutral real rate to be around 0.75-1.0%, putting the nominal rate around 2.75-3.0%. In Q1, reading of the deteriorating outlook suggested that the BoE needed to be on a lower rate path, needing five cuts in 2025 rather than the market-implied quarterly pace of four. QT is not on a pre-set path, like rates.

FX

• USD is attempting to atone for recent pressure with the DXY firmer and eyeing 97.00 to the upside, having breached Tuesday's 96.94 peak. Today's data slate sees Challenger layoffs and ADP employment, ahead of tomorrow's NFP print with markets likely to be particularly sensitive to any downside surprise.
• G10 peers are all lower vs the USD. The CAD fares best and is essentially flat on return from holiday and benefitting from crude strength.
• JPY lags, USD/JPY above 144.00 in a 143.33 to 144.24 band. Hit by the increasingly sour tone from the US administration regarding US-Japan trade talks. To recap, US President Trump said he doubts they'll have a deal with Japan; suggested Japan could pay 30% or 35% tariffs.
• Sterling under pressure against the USD, Cable below 1.37 to a 1.3689 trough, and also the EUR. Macro focus on the Welfare Reform vote which required another u-turn to ensure its passage, highlighting concern around the fiscal backdrop for the UK.
• While the EUR outpaces GBP, it is softer against the USD with EUR/USD below 1.18 and taking a breather from the 1.1830 multi-year peak that printed on Tuesday. Ongoing remarks from the Sintra conference, but nothing that has moved the dial thus far.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1546 vs exp. 7.1623 (Prev. 7.1534).

Fixed Income

• In the red, Gilts lag after further concessions on the Welfare Reform Bill. Concessions that increase the odds of tax increases and calls into question the government's fiscal credibility, writes IFS. Lower by over 50 ticks on the session, but above support at 92.85 and 92.83 from last Friday and this Monday, respectively.
• A softer session for EGBs as well. Specifics light with nothing groundbreaking from Sintra just yet. Bunds at the low-end of a 130.08 to 130.50 band. One that is 10 ticks below Tuesday’s base but a similar amount clear of the WTD 130.00 base. If breached, we look to 129.92 and then 129.30 from the last two weeks of May.
• USTs also lower, though to a slightly lesser degree than the above peers. Holding at the low-end of a 111-20+ to 111-30+ band. A tick below Tuesday’s base and notching a fresh WTD low by half a tick. If the move continues, there is a bit of a gap until 110-25 from the week before.
• UK sells GBP 5bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt: b/c 3.46x (prev. 3.08x), average yield 3.847% (prev. 4.062%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.3bps)
• Germany sells EUR 4.557bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.60% 2035 Bund: b/c 1.6x, average yield 2.63%, retention 24.05%

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are in the green and continuing to climb as the session progresses. Magnitude of strength initially in-line with that seen in European equity benchmarks but has since extended. Newsflow this morning light, handful of updates on the geopolitical front and no sustained follow through to the surprise private inventory build last night.
• WTI resides in a USD 65.23-65.93/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 66.94-67.75/bbl range.
• Precious metals somewhat mixed, XAU and XAG wane from peaks set in APAC trade, hit this morning as the USD gains ground. Though, for XAU, parameters are not too pronounced as participants await the next macro inflection point and look to Challenger Layoffs before ADP.
• Base metals mostly but modestly firmer, upside capped by discussed USD strength. For copper, attention on reports of mining disruptions in Peru while LME on-warrant aluminium stockpiles have hit a 2025 peak.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +0.7mln (exp.-1.8mln), Distillate -3.5mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline +1.9mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.

Geopolitics

• US President posted that his representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis on Gaza and Israel agreed to the necessary conditions to finalise a 60-day ceasefire during which they will work with all parties to end the war. Furthermore, the Qataris and Egyptians will deliver this final proposal and he hopes, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this deal, because it will not get better and will only get worse.
• US officials said Iran made preparations to mine the Strait of Hormuz last month although mines were not deployed in the strait, according to Reuters.
• "Iranian Minister of Communications: Internet outages in the country caused by external attacks", according to Al Jazeera.
• "Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC: The war has stopped, but the United States and Israel have not achieved their goals", according to Iran International.
• US Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defence missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that US weapons stockpiles have fallen too low, according to Politico.
• Quad joint statement expresses serious concern over the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea, while they called for the perpetrators, organisers and financiers of the April 22nd attack in Indian Kashmir to be brought to justice.

US event calendar

• 7:00 am: Jun 27 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.1%
• 7:30 am: Jun Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 47%
• 8:15 am: Jun ADP Employment Change, est. 98k, prior 37k

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My rain dance continues as it's so hot the kids can't sleep, my wife can't sleep, Brontë the dog can't sleep and I can't sleep. The kids have come in to our bedroom a few times this week, waking us up just to tell us they have an itchy bite on their legs. That then leads to a 10 minute conversation about there being nothing we can do about it but ultimately leads to a trip downstairs for some bite cream. An hour later we may get back to sleep. Meanwhile I've had more diet cokes to help cool me down over the last few days than the fridge can hold in the Oval Office. 

Markets also seemed to wilt a little in the heat yesterday and struggled to keep up their recent momentum, with the S&P 500 (-0.11%) slipping back from its record high even if it did get a small boost from news that the tax bill finally passed the Senate with VP JD Vance providing the casting tie-break busting vote (51-50). The bill now goes on to the House of Representatives, and both chambers have to pass the same version of the bill before it can reach President Trump’s desk. Remember that the first House vote was also very tight, with just a 215-214 margin, and the Republicans only have a 220-212 majority to start with. So there’s not much room for manoeuvre if they want to pass this by Trump’s July 4 deadline. There is a vote scheduled for later today, but already a handful of GOP lawmakers who voted for the first version of the bill are signaling opposition to the Senate changes. So it's not going to be easy. If it ultimately passes, the bill would extend the Trump tax cuts from the first term, and it also includes a $5tn increase in the debt ceiling, so it would remove that risk coming up later in the summer too.

One of the most important developments of the last 24 hours was the latest JOLTS report of job openings in the US, which pointed to a tighter labour market than previously thought. On one level, it demonstrated continued resilience and strong labour demand, but investors responded by lowering the likelihood of rate cuts this year, which led to a small spike in Treasury yields across the curve. So the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.4bps) ultimately pared back its early decline (4.185% at the lows) and moved back up to 4.24% after getting as high as 4.275% as London went home. The 2yr yield (+5.3bps) moved up to 3.77% from a low of 3.696% before the data.

In more detail, the JOLTS report showed job openings were up to a 6-month high of 7.769m in May (vs. 7.3m expected). So that pushed back against the narrative of a softening labour market, and it raised the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals to 1.07. Moreover, the details pointed in a similar direction, with the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs back up to 2.1%. So collectively, that countered the dovish trend of recent days, where Fed cuts were looking increasingly likely, particularly after a few speakers floated the idea of a cut as soon as the next meeting in July. But with that JOLTS report, investors dialled back the likelihood of aggressive cuts, with the amount priced in by the December meeting down -2.2bps on the day to 64bps. Admittedly, there was some other data yesterday, including the ISM manufacturing. But the numbers were broadly as expected, with the headline index at 49.0 (vs. 48.8 expected), so they didn’t really shift investors’ perception of the outlook.

We did hear from Fed Chair Powell at the ECB’s Sintra forum, but he stuck to his cautious mantra, saying on inflation that “We’re watching. We expect to see over the summer some higher readings”. He also added that if not for the worries about inflation rising due to tariffs, the Fed would likely already have lowered the policy rate further. Meanwhile, Trump continued his own attacks on Powell, saying that “Anybody would be better than Powell” and that he had “two or three top choices” to succeed the current Fed Chair but failed to expand further.

Otherwise, the big focus has been on trade, with just a week left until the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension runs out on July 9. There were optimistic noises around a trade deal with India, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying they were “very close” to a deal, whilst India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in a Newsweek interview that "I believe it's possible, and I think we'll have to watch this space for the next few days”. Separately, Stephen Miran, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said he was “optimistic” on an EU deal. President Trump again struck a negative tone on the trade deal with Japan in comments to the press, saying they should “pay 30%, 35% or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.” On whether the US would push back the July 9th deadline, the president noted he was “not thinking about the pause” and that he could be “writing letters to a lot of countries.” 

This backdrop proved a trickier one for equities, and the S&P 500 fell -0.11% by the close. However, that was influenced by a sharp fall for Tesla (-5.34%), which fell after Trump posted that Elon Musk “may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far” and “Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” So that meant the Magnificent 7 fell -1.17% yesterday, which helped drag down US equities more broadly. Indeed, if you look at the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+1.10%), it was actually a very positive day and the index hit a 6-month high, so it wasn’t all bad news.

Over in Europe, the tone was generally more positive than in the US, with sovereign bonds rallying across the curve. That came as the flash Euro Area CPI print came in at +2.0% in June, exactly in line with the ECB’s target. Core was a little bit higher, at +2.3%, but that was also as expected. So that added to the sense that the ECB would still have the space to cut rates again this year. Moreover, ECB Vice President de Guindos commented that if the Euro moved above $1.20, then “that would be much more complicated. But $1.20 is perfectly acceptable.” So that again offered a potential justification for more rate cuts, particularly as a stronger appreciation for the euro would bring down import prices and dampen inflation. Indeed, the amount of further ECB cuts priced by the December meeting moved up +1.0bps on the day to 24.7bps. So that supported a bond rally across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.3bps), OATs (-3.3bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps) all coming down. Nevertheless, equities still struggled and the STOXX 600 fell -0.21%. In addition, the Euro gained for a ninth straight session to its highest level since September 2021.

While much of the market is focused on US politics, here in the UK Prime Minister Starmer faced a tough vote on the government’s welfare reform last night. After a week of watering down the welfare cuts in the bill, the government decided at the last minute to offer more concesssions. This is remarkable for a government in its first year and with a huge majority. It potentially creates a £5bn funding black hole that may need to be closed with tax rises in the autumn, just as many countries launch tax cuts to combat the new tariff era. 

Asian equity markets outside of China are on the weaker side this morning given a little more concern over trade. The KOSPI (-0.85%) stands out as the largest underperformer, while the Nikkei (-0.21%) is slipping on trade concerns although both indices have rallied back a fair amount as I've been typing this morning. By contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.77%) is defying the trend, with mainland Chinese equities broadly flat. S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) futures having been edging higher while this paragraph has evolved. 

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers will include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Cipollone and Lane, and the BoE’s Taylor. Otherwise, data releases include the ADP’s report of private payrolls in the US for June, along with the Euro Area unemployment rate for May.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:20

After Spain Imports Record Amount Of Diesel From Morocco, Experts Point To Russian Sources

Via Remix News,

A record-breaking increase of diesel imports from Morocco to Spain has raised suspicions within the energy industry that some of the fuel may be of Russian origin. In just two months, from March to April 2025, Spain imported 123,000 tons of diesel from Morocco, more than the entire historical total.

The shipments are raising questions about how honest the EU’s energy policy is, which claims it is working to cut off Russian energy but in reality, is often sourcing it through middle countries.

According to Spanish newspaper El Pais, there are a number of factors that raise the likelihood that Spain is buying Russian diesel through the backdoor.

Besides the sudden increase in diesel from Morocco, a country that Spain does not typically import substantial amounts of diesel from, industry sources say Morocco did not impose sanctions on Russian energy resources after the invasion of Ukraine.

El Pais noted that since the beginning of 2025, Morocco has imported over 1 million tons of Russian diesel, accounting for 25 percent of its total imports. It could also be that Morocco is importing diesel from other countries that are also importing Russian diesel and repackaging it to hide its true source.

Experts believe the diesel is sent to Morocco and there it is blended with other diesel oils, making it untraceable back to its source.

The suspicion is that this fuel is being imported by Rabat, the capital of Morocco, at a lower cost and then re-exported to Spain with a North African country’s certification to mask its origin.

This practice is being investigated by the Spanish government, which has been trying to prove the Russian origin of the fuel since at least 2023. However, the government has so far been unable to provide definitive proof.

El Pais also pointed out that since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Spain’s diesel imports have increased from other countries that were not previous suppliers, including Singapore and Turkey.

This follows a 2024 investigation into a “Diesel mafia,” whose fraud activities were estimated at €1.9 billion, involving oil imported from sanctioned countries like Iran, Russia, and Syria, with altered certificates of origin from Turkey and Morocco.

Notably, many EU countries have criticized Hungary and Slovakia for stating the EU still needs Russian energy. Meanwhile, many of these EU countries either continue to directly import Russian energy, or in the case of Spain, are likely importing it through middle countries.

To add insult to injury, El Pais notes that Russia’s economy remains red hot. Despite predictions Russia would collapse under sanctions, the IMF noted that Russia grew by 4.1 percent in 2024, which is more than the United States, the EU, and Spain. The global average was 3.3 percent.

Russia’s wartime economy is also driving its economic engine, but the BBC also writes that despite sanctions, oil tankers continue to flow to India and China, which is driving significant revenue into Russia’s coffers.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 08:05

California Moves Forward With Higher Marijuana Excise Tax

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Buying legal weed and marijuana products in California will get slightly more expensive starting July 1 after state legislators failed to stop a state excise tax increase on the industry this month.

Effective Tuesday, marijuana retailers will pay 19 percent of gross receipts from cannabis and cannabis product sales—a jump of 4 percentage points.

The excise tax is paid in addition to state sales tax and any city or county taxes applicable to the business’s location.

California Cannabis Industry Attorney Jared Schwass said the decision to move ahead with the tax was “disappointing.”

“California legislators fail to act,” Schwass posted on X last week. “Due to that failure, the California cannabis tax is still on schedule to increase from 15 percent to 19 percent on July 1st. It is disappointing to read that [Sen.] Mike McGuire was against freezing the automatic increase because his constituents, who are already struggling to stay in the regulated market, will feel the pain of this increased tax.”

McGuire, a Democrat from Ukiah in Northern California, is leader of the California State Senate.

The state Assembly unanimously approved Assembly Bill 564 by Assemblyman Matt Haney of San Francisco on June 2. The legislation, as introduced, would have repealed the proposed tax hike. It was amended by lawmakers, however, to delay the implementation until the 2030–2031 fiscal year.

The bill then stalled in a Senate committee this month, and the delay allows the tax hike to kick in.

The United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Western States Council applauded the bill’s passage in June.

“California’s plans to raise the cannabis excise tax rate to 19 percent will only increase the number of failed legal cannabis businesses,” UFCW Local 1167 President Joe Duffle said in a statement. “As the leading cannabis union, UFCW sees how difficult it is for businesses that play by the rules.”

Duffle said freezing the cannabis excise tax would give legal cannabis businesses a “fighting chance” to stay afloat in the struggling industry.

“Without this bill, the illicit cannabis industry will only flourish more and keep putting untested, untaxed and unregulated cannabis products into the hands of consumers,” he added.

A baker sells marijuana cookies at the medical marijuana farmers market at the California Heritage Market in Los Angeles on July 11, 2014.  David McNew/Reuters

The California Cannabis Operators Association, the largest industry association in the state, started a petition to urge legislators to pass the bill.

“Sacramento politicians decided that you should now pay 25 percent more in excise taxes on safe and regulated cannabis products at your local dispensary,” the association wrote in the petition. “This short-sighted policy decision will only drive more consumers to the illicit market, accelerate the ongoing market collapse, and (ironically) reduce overall tax revenue, hurting the community programs that rely on these funds.”

The organization said the tax increase falls on consumers and patients at a time when many are struggling with inflation and cost-of-living challenges. The group also said it puts public health and safety at greater risk by driving even more Californians to the illegal black market.

“For nearly five years, California’s licensed cannabis market has been in a steep decline,” the organization stated.

On a statewide level, however, Haney’s legislation faced strong opposition from a coalition of 98 organizations, including Youth Forward, Getting it Right from the Start, Child Action Inc., and other nonprofits that favored raising the excise tax.

The groups said they risked losing at least $150 million per year for childcare, youth, and environmental programs if the tax increase was stalled.

“This translates into thousands fewer childcare slots for low-income children, fewer youth benefiting from substance abuse prevention programs, continuing environmental degradation of our watersheds, and other harms,” the organizations told the state, according to a legislative analysis.

Indigenous Justice, a nonprofit tribal organization, also opposed the bill, saying it would strip critical funding from tribal-focused grants that support cultural revitalization, land restoration, youth substance use prevention, sacred site access, and tribal youth leadership development, according to a legislative analysis.

California receives millions each year in cannabis excise tax revenue that pays for childcare programs, health initiatives, and environmental programs.

The state’s Legislative Analyst’s Office projected in March that the state would receive $607 million in cannabis tax revenue between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 07:20

Despite Dollar Access & Govt Crackdowns, Turks Are Sitting On $331 Billion Of Household Gold

Authored by Peter Reagan via BirchGold.com,

"The distinct Turkish tradition of "saving under the pillow" – a term referring to keeping valuables like gold at home – often comes into play during times of economic crisis, when the government calls on citizens to spend their savings to help revive the economy."

The opening part of a recent report highlighting how Turkey's 4,500 tons of physical gold bullion are mostly domestically-held is curious, and also telling.

Why should Turks oblige its government and spend what little wealth they are likely to have, the latter point being so because the government has destroyed the currency? It is quite brazen that a government infamous for monetary mismanagement would tell its citizens, who are far more capable of managing finances, on what to do with the very money that the central bank is destroying.

Perhaps it is the full awareness of how careless and hazardous the central bank is that has caused Turks to accumulate $331 billion of household gold.

Bars, coins, jewelry: whatever can be bought is stored away as Turks wait to see how much further the lira can crumble, having hit an inflation rate of 85.51% in October 2022.

The government obviously sees this as a problem, constantly trying to associate gold with tax evasion and money laundering.

Because why else would someone buy gold, right?

It has increased the sales tax on gold purchases and likely played some part in banks having huge differences in buy/sell prices, driving the gold trade underground.

Any jewelry purchase over $5,000 must be reported thoroughly, as if anyone buying a nice ring could be funding terrorism, and sales of uncertified cut gold bars were banned in 2024.

Despite this obvious clampdown, and despite relatively easy access to U.S. dollars and euros, Turks are still mostly opting for the comparatively inconvenient option of holding physical gold.

The article purports that this is because of cultural tradition, but it's very likely that Turkey's citizens recognize free-floating paper for what it is.

Why escape from one inflationary asset into another?

Amusingly enough, a prominent Turkish economist notes that it's these very reserves that the government is hounding that provide stability during times of crisis, which seem to be ongoing these days.

When economic stress hits, liquidating some of their gold to rebuy it when things stabilize is how Turks keep things moving.

Without this, the economy might altogether crumble.

The drive to move gold out of households and into questionable governing hands goes back to 1980s. Turks were meant to get interest from depositing their gold in banks, but the initiative mostly went nowhere.

Here's why:

…concerns soon emerged about liquidity risks. Policymakers feared a potential crisis if all depositors demanded physical gold at once, particularly if the collected gold had already been sold abroad to obtain foreign currency.

Sort of like the COMEX-London-Basel III situation, isn’t it? With obvious admissions such as these, it's no wonder Turks only trust gold that they can hold and store themselves.

Erdogan's 2016 appeal to patriotism morphed into the Gold Conversion System in 2022, which was about as alluring as it sounds. Strangely, the article says that these and similar efforts didn't take off because of "cultural norms, practical concerns, and structural economic uncertainties."

It seems that the answer lies elsewhere and is much more straightforward.

Trust is mostly necessarily earned, and the government of Turkey has done little but betray it over the last few decades. On the other hand, gold has upheld it and then some.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 06:30

US Revokes Visas For British Punk-Rap Duo Over Anti-Israel Chant

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

The State Department revoked the U.S. visas of the British punk-rap band Bob Vylan, following the group’s anti-Israel comments at a world-famous English music festival. 

Lead singer Bobby Vylan led attendees at his June 28 concert at the Glastonbury Festival in chants of “Death, death to the IDF!” referring to the Israel Defense Forces.

The concert came just days after the United States and Israel engaged in an offensive against Iranian nuclear sites, and almost two years after Hamas’s deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, prompting Israeli military actions in Gaza aimed at eliminating the Palestinian terrorist group and freeing the hostages taken by it. The ongoing Israel–Hamas conflict also triggered protests by pro-Palestinian activists against Israel’s military responses.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau announced in a June 30 X post that “The [State Department] has revoked the U.S. visas for the members of the Bob Vylan band in light of their hateful tirade at Glastonbury, including leading the crowd in death chants. Foreigners who glorify violence and hatred are not welcome visitors to our country.”

The band was scheduled later this year to make appearances in cities across the nation, including Washington, Utah, Colorado, Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and other states.

During the weekend show, Vylan chanted against the IDF while performing in front of 200,000 people at the festival, held in Somerset, England, which is one of the world’s largest music events.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Vylan’s message.

“There is no excuse for this kind of appalling hate speech,” Starmer said in a statement. “I said that [Irish hip-hop group] Kneecap should not be given a platform, and that goes for any other performers making threats or inciting violence.”

Vylan took to Facebook the day after the performance, saying he had been “inundated” with a mixture of “support and hatred,” but reiterating his stance that “I said what I said.” 

The singer referenced his daughter, saying:

“Teaching our children to speak up for the change they want and need is the only way that we make this world a better place. 

“Let us display to them loudly and visibly the right thing to do when we need change.” 

Police said they are considering whether an investigation is needed. Avon and Somerset Police wrote on X, “We are aware of the comments made by acts on the West Holts Stage at Glastonbury Festival this afternoon. Video evidence will be assessed by officers to determine whether any offences may have been committed that would require a criminal investigation.” 

Chris Philp, the Conservative MP for Croydon South and Shadow Home Secretary in the UK, encouraged prosecution against Vylan, saying on X:

“It seems clear Vylan was inciting violence and hatred … I call on the Police to urgently investigate and prosecute the BBC as well for broadcasting this.”

The BBC admitted on June 30 that it should have cut the broadcast after the “anti-Semitic” and “utterly unacceptable” comments were made.

The broadcaster has since removed the performance from its website.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 03:30

What Parents Wish Their Children Could Grow Up Without

With the technological advancements of the past two decades, a lot of new challenges have emerged for parents of young children. As they try to navigate the ever-evolving media and device landscape, it’s as difficult as it is important to strike the right balance between giving kids the chance to learn how to use technology and protecting them from the potential harm that early (over)use of smartphones and social media can doubtlessly inflict on a child’s development.

Given the complexity of the task at hand and the lack of past experience to draw from, it’s understandable that many parents are uncertain how to manage their children’s device use, screen and social media time.

And while they acknowledge the potential benefits of smartphones and social media, a sizeable share of parents would like to turn back the time for their children’s sake, according to a recent Harris Poll.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, when asked which things they wished had never been invented thinking about their child’s experience growing up, more than half of the surveyed parents said they wished for their kids that social media didn’t exist.

You will find more infographics at Statista

More specifically, 62 percent of respondents wished that TikTok had never been invented, 62 percent said they would have liked to spare their kids the toxicity of X (formerly Twitter) and 56 percent wished that Instagram didn’t exist.

As the chart shows, the one thing parents wanted gone most for the sake of their children is online pornography, which more than 7 in 10 respondents hoped wouldn’t exist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 02:45

"You Don't Have To Show Your ID Anywhere" – Police Union & AfD Rage s 1 In 5 Illegals Now Simply Flying Into Germany

Via Remix news,

In the past 12 months, the German Federal Police have identified 12,858 illegal migrants who entered Germany by air, a significant number that is on the rise. Now, migrants are increasingly choosing simply to fly into Germany instead of dealing with the long ordeal of crossing multiple borders in dangerous conditions.

This increase in migrants flying into Germany jumped after Germany tightened border controls.

In May of this year alone, at least 977 illegal entries were recorded using air travel to enter Germany, accounting for over 20 percent of all identified illegal border crossings.

However, the true number of such crossings is likely much higher, as foreign nationals traveling within the Schengen area are not required to show identification. As a result, they are often only discovered long after they have left the airport, making it impossible to turn them back.

“It would be consistent to also notify the Schengen air borders,” said Heiko Teggatz, a board member of the German Police Union (DPolG).

“If the smugglers aren’t completely stupid, they’ll simply bring their people from other Schengen states to Germany by plane. Today, you can easily book a plane ticket within the Schengen area, and you generally don’t have to show your ID anywhere.”

All of this information came from a government response from Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) after Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP Gottfried Curio, the party’s domestic policy spokesperson, launched an inquiry.

Dobrindt was forced to acknowledge that the tightened controls “refer exclusively to the land borders,” meaning no illegal migrants were turned back at airports.

This trend of illegal entry by plane has intensified since the new federal government instructed officials to begin rejecting asylum seekers at internal borders. 

Teggatz confirmed this “increase in secondary migration via airports,” noting that “Medium-sized commercial airports like Hanover are particularly affected.”

Despite hundreds of officers being deployed at German airports, checks are almost exclusively conducted on flights from outside the Schengen area. That means if a migrant makes it to Greece and manages to get on a plane to Germany, there is little chance he will be checked.

Dobrindt, like his predecessor, Nancy Faeser (SPD), has reported rejections of migrants coming into Germany, but only from land borders. It remains unclear why airports were not included in tightened border measures.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/02/2025 - 02:00

Control, Crisis, & Compliance: Endgame Logic Of Late Capitalism

Authored by Colin Todhunter via Off-Guardiam.org,

It must be made clear from the start that, drawing on the work of sociologist Max Weber, capitalism is an ‘ideal type’ concept. An ideal type is a conceptual tool that highlights certain key characteristics of a phenomenon by accentuating some elements while omitting others. It is not meant to perfectly correspond to any specific real-world instance but serves as a construct to analyse and compare social or economic phenomena.

This framing is critical: while capitalism is often described as a system of free markets and voluntary exchange, in reality, it frequently relies on collusion, corruption and state-corporate coercion and violence. Having stated this, as an economic system, capitalism inherently requires constant growth, expanding markets and sufficient demand to sustain profitability.

However, as markets saturate and demand falls, overproduction and overaccumulation of capital become systemic problems, leading to economic crises. When capital cannot be reinvested profitably due to declining demand or lack of new markets, wealth accumulates excessively, devalues and triggers crises. This tendency is linked to a long-term decline in the capitalist rate of profit, which has fallen significantly since the 19th century.

Neoliberalism’s playbook

Capitalism in the form of neoliberal globalisation since the 1980s has responded to these crises by expanding credit markets and increasing personal debt to maintain consumer demand as workers’ wages are squeezed or they are made unemployed.

Other strategies have also been deployed. These include financial and real estate speculation, stock buybacks, massive bailouts, public asset selloffs, regulatory ‘reform’ and subsidies using public money to sustain private capital and boosting militarism, which drives demand in many sectors of the economy (one reason why Germany and other European countries are following in the footsteps of the US by boosting their spending on militarism and creating bogeymen as a justification).

These financial manoeuvres are not isolated tactics but part of a broader neoliberal agenda that also involves deregulating international capital flows and exposure to global capital markets, resulting in the obsession of maintaining ‘market confidence’ to hedge against capital flight and surrendering economic sovereignty to finance capital. We also see the displacement of production in other countries in order to capture foreign markets.

This global expansion of neoliberal capitalism is a form of imperialism, where powerful corporations and financial interests impose structural adjustments and policies that undermine local economies, especially in the Global South. The capture of new markets abroad is essential for capital accumulation and offsetting potential declining profitability at home.

This imperial dynamic is particularly visible in the agricultural sector. For instance, the process involves the destruction of indigenous rural economies, the imposition of chemical-dependent industrial agriculture and transformation of food systems to benefit global agribusiness oligopolies. Think too of the profit-driven technofixes being rolled out by Big Tech and Big Ag: the ultimate commodification and corporate capture of knowledge, seeds, data and so on under the crisis narrative of impending Malthusian catastrophe.

And this alludes to the fact that capital seeks ideological cover for its financial ambitions. The climate emergency narrative is being used to legitimise new financially lucrative instruments such as carbon trading and green investments, schemes designed to absorb surplus wealth under the guise of environmentalism. This reflects a broader pattern where perceived (or manufactured) crises are exploited to create speculative markets and investment opportunities that maintain capital accumulation.

COVID and Ukraine

This logic reached a new intensity during the COVID event, which provided a stark and recent illustration of how the ongoing crisis of neoliberal capitalism is exploited and managed, serving as a critical phase in its evolution. This event and associated lockdowns amplified structural inequalities and reshaped the dynamics of capital and control.

COVID was used as a strategy of ‘creative destruction’, accelerating the destruction of millions of livelihoods globally and pushing small businesses towards bankruptcy. Rather than providing genuine aid to the public, COVID policies and massive government spending primarily benefited large corporations—boosting their margins while forcing smaller enterprises to the brink and consolidating corporate power.

At the same time, COVID was used to justify unprecedented restrictions on freedoms, increased surveillance and digital control mechanisms. More on this later.

Lockdowns helped reshape capitalist accumulation patterns by externally imposing economic shutdowns that monetary policy alone could not achieve. They created conditions for increased indebtedness for households, small businesses and (Global South) nations, corporate bailouts and the imposition of new forms of control, thereby managing the contradictions of capitalism through non-market means.

According to Prof. Fabio Vighi of Cardiff University, financial markets were already collapsing before lockdowns were imposed; lockdowns did not cause the market crash in early 2022 but were imposed because financial markets were failing. Lockdowns effectively turned off the engine of the economy—suspending business transactions and draining demand for credit—which allowed central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, to flood financial markets with massive emergency monetary injections without triggering hyperinflation in the real economy. Looking at Europe, investigative journalist Michael Byrant says that €1.5 trillion was needed to deal with the financial crisis in Europe alone in 2020.

This strategy was designed to stabilise and restructure the financial architecture by halting the flow of economic activity temporarily, enabling a multi-trillion-dollar bailout of Big Finance and large corporations under the guise of COVID relief. A bailout that dwarfed anything seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Lockdowns not only destroyed small businesses and accelerated corporate consolidation, but—unlike the 2008 bailouts—this process faced little opposition, as it was justified as a public health necessity.

While COVID marked one phase of crisis management, the subsequent war in Ukraine has further accelerated these dynamics. It has served to redirect flows of energy, finance and industrial capacity. The destruction of Europe’s energy ties with Russia—via sanctions, decoupling and sabotage—engineered a forced dependency on high-cost US liquefied natural gas, delivering record profits to American fossil fuel firms (in 2022 alone, US LNG exports to the EU more than doubled—from 22 to 56 billion cubic metres—making up over half of all US LNG exports).

As European industries faltered under the weight of inflation and energy instability, the US subordinated its allies through enforced dependency while securing new opportunities for accumulation at home. Dollar supremacy was reinforced, compliance internalised and capital relocated under the banner of war. In this scenario, Europe has become both a very junior partner and collateral damage with its economic sovereignty sacrificed on the altar of transatlantic profit realignment.

The state, crisis and control

This brings us to a broader understanding of the state’s role in maintaining the economic system. The state and ideology are crucial for maintaining capitalism’s economic base, with the state intervening through financial support and strategic market expansion. At the same time, ideology shapes public perception and legitimises actions by re-framing individual freedoms and exploiting crises like COVID and Ukraine to manage dissent and uphold elite power.

This ideological reconfiguration aligns with technological transformation. The rise of artificial intelligence and advanced automation technologies—such as robotics, driverless vehicles, 3D printing, drone technology and even ‘farmerless farms’—will reshape the traditional mass labour force that underpins capitalist economic activity: it is being profoundly transformed and, ultimately, significantly reduced.

Looking ahead, as economic activity is restructured through these technologies, the entire social infrastructure built to reproduce labour—mass education, welfare, healthcare—will be rendered increasingly unnecessary because fewer workers are needed to sustain production and services. This transformation alters labour’s classical role as a seller of labour power to capital, fundamentally changing the dynamics of the labour-capital relationship.

The question is: if labour is defined in terms of its relation to capital and is the condition for the existence of the working class, why bother with maintaining or reproducing labour?

In this context of social erosion, neoliberalism has already weakened trade unions, suppressed wages and increased inequality. And now the message is: get used to being poor or on the scrapheap, and dissent will not be tolerated.

From surveillance to subjugation

The so-called ‘Great Reset' anticipates a fundamental transformation of Western societies, resulting in permanent restrictions on liberties and mass surveillance.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has speculated about a future where people ‘rent’ rather than own goods (as seen in the widely circulated ‘you will own nothing and be happy’ video), raising concerns about the erosion of ownership rights under the rhetoric of a ‘green economy’, ‘sustainable consumption’ and ‘climate emergency’.

Climate alarmism and the mantra of sustainability are about promoting money-making schemes. Beyond this, these narratives also serve to cement social control.

Neoliberalism has run its course, resulting in the impoverishment of large sections of the population. But to dampen dissent and lower expectations, the levels of personal freedom we have been used to will not be tolerated. This means that the wider population will be subjected to the discipline of an emerging surveillance state.

To push back against any dissent, ordinary people are being told that they must sacrifice personal liberty in order to protect public health, societal security or the climate. Unlike in the old normal of consumer-oriented neoliberalism, an ideological shift is occurring whereby personal freedoms are increasingly depicted as being dangerous because they run counter to the collective good.

In the 1980s, to help legitimise the deregulation-privatisation neoliberal globalisation agenda, government and media instigated an ideological onslaught, driving home the primacy of ‘free enterprise’, individual rights and responsibility and emphasising a shift away from the role of the ‘nanny state’, trade unions and the collective in society.

We are currently seeing another ideological shift. As in the 1980s, this messaging is being driven by an economic impulse. This time, the collapsing neoliberal project.

The masses are being conditioned to get used to lower living standards and accept them. At the same time, to muddy the waters, the message is that lower living standards are the result of mass immigration or supply shocks that both the Ukraine conflict and ‘the virus’ have caused.

The net-zero carbon emissions agenda will help legitimise lower living standards (reducing your carbon footprint) while reinforcing the notion that our rights must be sacrificed for the greater good. You will own nothing, not because the rich and their neoliberal agenda made you poor, but because you will be instructed to stop being irresponsible and must act to protect the planet.

Decreased consumption (your poverty) will be sold as being good for the planet by coopting the concept of ‘degrowth’; something to be imposed on the masses while elites continue to accumulate. This contrasts with genuine ecological or socialist degrowth proposals that would target elite consumption and redistribute resources.

Meanwhile, the framework is in place to ensure that huge corporations and the super-rich continue to rake in near-record profits through militarism, an energy transition, a food transition, speculative finance schemes involving land, carbon trading, data monetisation, surveillance capital, pharmaceuticals, green bonds, commodities and agribusiness, real estate and climate risk derivatives.

And there is always money available for Ukraine and various destabilisations around the world to further ensure the bottom line of giant corporations.

India as global microcosm

To illustrate global dynamics and the real-world impact of neoliberal policies, we can examine the case of India’s agricultural sector.

Structural adjustment programmes imposed by institutions like the IMF and World Bank or bilateral agreements with the US have forced countries like India to radically transform their agricultural sectors. Subsequent directives have demanded dismantling public support systems such as state-owned seed supply, subsidies and public agricultural institutions, while promoting export-oriented cash crops to earn foreign exchange.

This shift is part of a neoliberal agenda to further integrate agriculture into global capital markets, reduce the role of the public sector and open up the sector to foreign direct investment and multinational agribusiness corporations.

The outcome in India thus far has been devastating for millions of small-scale farmers and rural dwellers. Neoliberal reforms have led to spiralling input costs, dependency on proprietary seeds and agrochemicals and the erosion of traditional farming systems. This has resulted in widespread indebtedness, economic distress and a decline in the number of cultivators—millions have been pushed off the land, many driven to suicide, and hundreds of millions face jobless growth and rural displacement.

This restructuring facilitates the capture of agriculture by large agribusiness corporations and financial investors. These entities dominate global commodity trading and are increasingly consolidating control over seeds, inputs, logistics and retail. The public sector’s role is reduced to a facilitator of private capital, enabling the entrenchment of industrial, GMO-based commodity crop agriculture suited to corporate interests rather than local food security or ecological sustainability.

Contrast this with agroecology, a means to free farmers from dependency on manipulated commodity markets, unfair subsidies and food insecurity. Agroecology prioritises local food sovereignty, ecological sustainability and farmer knowledge, opposing the reductionist, industrial agriculture paradigm promoted by capitalist agribusiness.

In India, the policy of population displacement compels displaced rural workers to migrate to urban areas in search of precarious, low-paid employment or remain unemployed, swelling the ranks of a surplus labour force.

This reserve army of labour is not accidental but serves a strategic function within global capitalism. It helps suppress wages and weaken the bargaining power of workers and trade unions both in India and internationally. By maintaining a large pool of cheap and insecure labour, capital can discipline workers through competition and insecurity.

Moreover, many of these displaced Indian workers are absorbed into offshore factories and global supply chains, effectively acting as a tool to undermine labour rights and conditions in wealthier countries.

This analysis reflects the country’s incorporation into the global capitalist system, where rural displacement and labour ‘flexibility’ are central to maintaining capitalist dynamics.

There is a historical comparison to be made between the displacement of people from the land in England during the Industrial Revolution and the contemporary displacement of the peasantry in India under neoliberal capitalism. Just as the enclosure movement in England forcibly removed peasants from their land, pushing them into cities to become a labour force for emerging industrial capitalism, a similar process is unfolding in India today.

Benign language

This displacement is not simply a byproduct of ‘development’ but a deliberate process tied to capitalist accumulation and imperialist restructuring of agriculture, where local food systems and rural livelihoods are subordinated to corporate interests and global markets.

Global communications and business strategy company APCO Worldwide is a lobby agency with firm links to the Wall Street/corporate US establishment and facilitates its global agenda. Some years ago, following the 2008 financial crisis, APCO stated that India’s resilience in weathering the global downturn has made governments, policy makers, economists, corporate houses and fund managers believe that the country can play a significant role in the recovery of global capitalism.

Decoded, this means global capital moving into secure control of markets. Where agriculture is concerned, this hides behind emotive and seemingly altruistic rhetoric about ‘helping farmers’ and the need to ‘feed a burgeoning population’ (regardless of the fact this is exactly what India’s farmers have been doing). APCO talks about positioning international funds and facilitating corporations’ ability to exploit markets, sell products and secure profit.

And the state has been actively obliging. The plan is to displace the peasantry, create a land market and amalgamate landholdings to form larger farms that are more suited to international land investors and export-oriented industrial farming.

For instance, an MoU was entered into by the Indian government in April 2021 with Microsoft, allowing its local partner, CropData, to leverage a master database of farmers. CropData was to be granted access to a government database of 50 million farmers and their land records. As the database is developed, it will include farmers’ personal details, profiles of land held, production information and financial details.

The stated aim is to use digital technology to improve financing, inputs, cultivation and supply and distribution. The unstated aims are to impose a certain model of farming, promote profitable corporate technologies and products, encourage market (corporate) domination and create a land market by establishing a system of ‘conclusive titling’ of all land in the country so that ownership can be identified and land can then be bought or taken away.

Globally, the financialisation of farmland accelerated after the 2008 financial crisis. From 2008 to 2022, land prices nearly doubled throughout the world. Agricultural investment funds rose ten-fold between 2005 and 2018 and now regularly include farmland as a stand-alone asset class, with US investors having doubled their stakes in farmland since 2020.

Meanwhile, agricultural commodity traders are speculating on farmland through their own private equity subsidiaries, while new financial derivatives are allowing speculators to accrue land parcels and lease them back to struggling farmers, driving steep and sustained land price inflation.

As far as India is concerned, it is becoming a fully incorporated subsidiary of global capitalism. Displaced farmers and farm workers are pushed into urban sectors like construction, manufacturing and services, despite these sectors not generating enough jobs. This displacement facilitates the replacement of labour-intensive, family-run farms with large-scale, mechanised monoculture enterprises controlled by a few powerful transnational agribusiness corporations and financial institutions.

Moreover, India is being directed to rely increasingly on its foreign exchange reserves to buy food on the international market as it is forced to eradicate its buffer food stocks.

This process is driven by pressure from global agribusiness and finance capital, which seek to dismantle India’s public food procurement and distribution systems, including the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the Public Distribution System (PDS). These state-backed mechanisms have historically ensured food security by maintaining strategic grain stocks and providing fair prices to farmers.

Eliminating these buffer stocks would mean that India would no longer physically hold and control its own food reserves. Instead, it would have to depend on volatile global markets to procure essential food supplies, using foreign currency reserves. This shift would make India vulnerable to price fluctuations, speculation by investment firms and manipulation by multinational corporations dominating global commodity markets.

The massive farmer protests in India were, in part, a resistance to these policies. Without buffer stocks, India would effectively be paying corporations such as Cargill to supply food, perhaps financed by borrowing on international markets.

Resistance and refusal

The narrative presented here reveals a deeply systemic crisis within capitalism—one that cannot be understood through isolated events, personality politics or short-term policy shifts.

From financialisation, predatory practices abroad and speculative markets to state-backed bailouts, war and digital surveillance, capitalism continually reinvents mechanisms to prolong its accumulation cycle.

This article exposes the underlying logic of an economic system marked by the increasing convergence of state and corporate power—a trajectory that points towards a shift away from ‘capitalism’, possibly towards a technocratic or even techno-feudalist system where e-commerce platforms, algorithms, programmable centralised currencies and monopolistic entities determine how we live.

Such developments raise urgent questions about the future shape of society and, crucially, how a mass movement might resist without being co-opted or subverted. Yet, recognising these dynamics is the essential first step in fostering informed debate and effective resistance.

However, the hegemonic class and its media and NGOs continue to divide the population along lines of race, religion, identity politics and immigration. They do anything and everything to sow division or sedate courtesy of gadgets, games, entertainment, infotainment and sports. Their media will do all it can to keep people in the dark about what is really happening and why.

But even when people do manage to see through the smokescreen, they will try to promote apathy, convincing people that nothing can be done about any of it anyway.

They will try anything to fragment opposition and suppress movements for systemic change.

That is not to say resistance is absent—far from it, especially in the realm of food and agriculture (discussed in my books on the global food system linked to at the end of this article).

The fightback against emerging digital authoritarianism is already underway and takes many forms: rights groups are challenging mass surveillance laws and practices in the courts; campaigns are mobilising to block or roll back digital ID schemes, facial recognition and mass data retention.

Mass mobilisations against surveillance infrastructure are growing, as are acts of refusal in the form of non-compliance with digital ID requirements, opt-outs and public data obfuscation campaigns. There is also a burgeoning movement to build and promote peer-to-peer, federated or blockchain-based social networks and communication tools and to develop grassroots internet infrastructure that bypasses state and corporate control.

International solidarity is crucial, too, to expose and resist the export of surveillance technologies and the global harmonisation of repressive policies.

Meanwhile hundreds of millions endure poverty and many more face declining living standards and welfare cuts. At the same time, the super-rich have stashed an estimated $50 trillion in hidden accounts (as of 2020) and have only grown wealthier in recent years.

And here lies the crux of the matter—economic power.

While resistance to the surveillance state and digital authoritarianism is vital, the deeper struggle is against the concentration of wealth and control in the hands of a global corporate and financial elite.

Across the world, workers, peasants and communities are organising through strikes, land occupations, agroecology, seed and food sovereignty movements, debt resistance and the fight to reclaim public goods. The task is to build movements capable not only of resisting but of transforming the structures of economic power that underpin the entire system.

For further insight into all the issues discussed here, readers can access the author’s open-access books which can be read or downloaded on Figshare (no sign in or sign up required).

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 23:25

Trump Says Israel Agrees To 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire, Urges Hamas To Accept

President Trump said Tuesday that Israel has agreed on terms for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and warned Hamas to accept the deal before conditions worsen. 

Trump announced the development as he prepares to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks at the White House on Monday. The US leader has been increasing pressure on the Israeli government and Hamas to broker a ceasefire and hostage agreement and bring about an end to the war in Gaza.

“My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War,” Trump wrote, saying the Qataris and Egyptians would deliver the final proposal.

“I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better – IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” he said.

Trump’s promise that it was his best and final offer may find a sceptical audience with Hamas. Even before the expiration of the war’s longest ceasefire in March, Trump has repeatedly issued dramatic ultimatums to pressure Hamas to agree to longer pauses in the fighting that would see the release of more hostages and a return of more aid to Gaza’s civilian populace.

Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer was in Washington on Tuesday for talks with senior administration officials to discuss a potential Gaza ceasefire, Iran and other matters. Dermer was expected to meet with US Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump repeated his hope for forging an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal next week.

Asked if it was time to put pressure on Netanyahu to get a ceasefire deal done, Trump said the Israeli prime minister was ready to come to an agreement.

“He wants to,” Trump said of Netanyahu in an exchange with reporters while visiting a new immigration detention facility in Florida. “I think we’ll have a deal next week.”

Talks between Israel and Hamas have repeatedly faltered over a major sticking point – whether the war should end as part of any ceasefire agreement. About 50 hostages remain captive in Gaza, with less than half believed to be alive.

The development came as over 150 international charities and humanitarian groups called on Tuesday for disbanding a controversial Israeli- and US-backed system to distribute aid in Gaza because of chaos and deadly violence against Palestinians seeking food at its sites.

The joint statement by groups including Oxfam, Save the Children and Amnesty International followed the killings of at least 10 Palestinians who were seeking desperately needed food, witnesses and health officials said. Meanwhile, Israeli air strikes killed at least 37 in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, according to Nasser Hospital.

“Tents, tents they are hitting with two missiles?” asked Um Seif Abu Leda, whose son was killed in the strikes. Mourners threw flowers on the body bags.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 23:00

How Iran War Exposed Limits Of Chinese Influence In Middle East

Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,

The world had a moment of clarity during the Israel–Iran conflict.

For years, analysts have noted that China is closing in on the United States as a peer competitor, whether in terms of high-tech industries, naval fleets, or the size of its diplomatic corps.

That power shift seemed to have also played out in the Middle East, a region where the United States has traditionally held significant influence.

Two years ago, Beijing brokered the normalization of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Later the same year, the China-led BRICS bloc, designed to counterbalance the U.S.-led Western democracies, admitted four new members from the region: Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The bloc was formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009 and expanded to include South Africa in 2010.

However, the action of the United States—and the inaction of China—during the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict revealed that the power gap between Beijing and Washington remains sizable.

The United States joined its ally Israel in the conflict on June 21 by attacking key Iranian nuclear sites with 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.

Two days later, President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. The truce appears to be holding so far.

By contrast, Beijing’s support for Iran remained largely rhetorical.

The Chinese regime condemned Israel and criticized the United States over the strikes on Iran. It also released joint statements with member states of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China- and Russia-led security grouping, expressing “grave concern” that the attacks on Iran violated international law.

The revelation of the power gap between the United States and China means that countries will move closer into Washington’s orbit, according to Yeh Yao-yuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in Houston.

That means Middle Eastern countries will shift from a pro-Beijing position to a neutral stance in the contest between China and the United States as the world moves into two camps led by the two powers, he told The Epoch Times.

Beijing is keenly aware that the U.S. focus is on Asia, particularly China, according to Christopher Balding, a senior fellow at the UK-based Henry Jackson Society. The Chinese regime deliberately kept a low profile during the Israel–Iran military conflict, he said.

“The more that they can keep the U.S. working on other non-China issues, I think that they see it as better for them,” Balding, also a contributor to The Epoch Times, told the publication.

According to China expert Alexander Liao, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is uncertain about its next steps.

“Beijing has realized that its existing assessment of the world—that the East is rising and the West is declining—doesn’t hold anymore,” Liao told The Epoch Times.

“Should they change the course of their strategic directions? If so, how? They haven’t made up their mind yet.”

Iran's Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh (C) attends the Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers’ meeting in Qingdao, China, on June 26, 2025. The SCO’s nine official members include China, India, and Russia. China’s support has helped Iran sustain its economy and nuclear program despite decades of U.S. and UN sanctions. Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

Iran’s Role in China’s Plan

China’s support is the main reason Iran could sustain its economy and nuclear enrichment program despite decades of sanctions by the United States and the United Nations. The International Atomic Energy Agency verified a few days before the Israel–Iran conflict that Iran had 400 kilograms of enriched uranium.

Iran holds high geopolitical value to China. Its location, linking East and West, has made it an important node for the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative. This foreign policy platform presents itself as a global infrastructure development program.

Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping visited Iran in 2016, during which the two countries formed a so-called comprehensive strategic partnership.

In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year agreement. China committed $400 billion in investments in telecom, banking, ports, and other infrastructure in Iran. In return, Iran agreed to supply China with oil.

Today, China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil. Last year, the daily volume was about 1.5 million barrels, according to market intelligence company Kpler.

To circumvent sanctions, the oil trade between China and Iran is typically conducted in Chinese yuan or as a barter. This reduces trade volumes transacted in U.S. dollars and aligns with Beijing’s ambition to de-dollarize and increase the importance of the yuan in global trade.

The Rise of NATO

During this year’s NATO summit in The Hague, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic products (GDPs) by 2035.

That means the NATO military spending will more than double, given that members on average spent 2 percent of their GDPs in 2024.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, NATO members accounted for about 55 percent of the total $2.7 trillion in global military expenditure. With NATO’s double spending, the ratio is expected to increase to roughly 70 percent.

NATO also reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to Article 5, which states that any attack on a member country is an attack on all.

On June 25, the military alliance also released a statement, along with its Indo-Pacific partners, stating that “the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is interconnected.” The four partners are Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

The Chinese regime is monitoring NATO developments closely.

NATO heads of state and government pose for an official photo at the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25, 2025. Among other matters, 32 member states agreed to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their GDPs by 2035. A day later, China’s foreign ministry criticized the move as well as NATO’s increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific region. Omar Havana/Getty Images

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, in a post on social media platform X on June 26, criticized the spending boost and the alliance’s growing interest in the Asia-Pacific region.

Liao considers it “very likely” that democracies will expand their regional security alliances to one that’s global in scope.

“If such a significant expansion happens, it will be lethal to the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.

The expansion would mean that the Article 5-style commitment would cover Indo-Pacific nations, Liao said. He said he believes that the United States is poised to expand the current security alliance; it’s just waiting for the right time and opportunity.

“Any conflict with South Korea or Japan will evolve to a conflict with a group that accounts for 70 percent of global military spending,” he said. “This will make China’s goal of taking over Taiwan very challenging.”

Amy K. Mitchell, a founding partner at geopolitical consultancy Kilo Alpha Strategies, said that there’s a “very strong potential” that Trump will try to establish a NATO-like security alliance in the Indo-Pacific.

That would be a “very big legacy project for President Trump,” she told The Epoch Times.

For now, she sees the president himself and his unpredictability as the main deterrent to China.

“The Chinese Communist Party is probably rethinking how it’s going to handle the administration,” Mitchell said.

China still faces uncertainty in the ongoing trade war with the United States.

Beijing announced new controls on two fentanyl precursors on June 20, a day after a rare meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue. Wang told Perdue that the regime was open to collaboration on curbing narcotics and illegal immigration, according to Chinese state media reports.

The move was aimed at lifting the 20 percent fentanyl-related U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The current tariff level on China is about 50 percent, which is the cumulative rate composed of fentanyl tariffs, 10 percent reciprocal tariffs, and existing levies from the Biden administration.

A worker moves pieces of steel machinery at a manufacturing company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on June 16, 2025. China’s factory output rose less than expected in May amid continued uncertainty from its trade war with the United States. STR/AFP via Getty Images

China signed an additional trade agreement with the United States last week, detailing the terms negotiated in Geneva in May. For now, the 20 percent U.S. tariff tied to China’s role in fentanyl trafficking will remain.

Beijing’s slow walk on exporting rare earth elements has been a focal point in rounds of negotiations between the two countries.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry on June 27 stated that it would “review and approve eligible export applications for controlled items in accordance with the law” as a part of the framework agreement. While it did not explicitly mention rare earths, the statement was made in response to an unnamed reporter’s question on rare earths exports.

Rare earths are essential for producing permanent magnets, a must-have component of modern manufacturing. They are also critical to military and defense hardware. China’s export licenses only cover civilian purposes and need to be renewed every six months.

Balding said China is likely to hold more tightly onto its near-monopoly control over rare earth supply.

“In addition to demonstrating its power over the global economy, China does not want to be helping the U.S. military prepare when each side is focusing more and more on how to fight each other,” he said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 22:35

Consumption Wars: Streaming Overtakes Traditional TV In May

Cord-cutting — the consumer shift away from traditional cable and satellite TV toward streaming platforms — has been underway for over 15 years and continues to accelerate.

A new report from UBS confirms that streaming has officially surpassed traditional TV in terms of consumption. The era of streaming dominance has arrived ahead of the 2030s. 

Video streaming services like Amazon Prime, Netflix, Disney+, and others offer consumers a massive array of programming choices at competitive subscription rates compared to the large bundles provided by traditional cable providers. 

Analysts, led by John Hodulik, told clients Monday that traditional TV viewership continues to decline, actually in their words "worsened" in the second quarter:

• Total TV consumption is falling faster: P2+ PUT (Persons 2 and older, Persons Using Television) is down 12% YoY in Q2, steeper than the 9.2% decline in Q1.

• P18–49 demographic viewership fell 17% YoY, with its share of TV consumption dropping to just 17%.

• Fox News (+30% YoY in P2+) kept the cable news category in positive territory, though gains have slowed from Q1.

• Entertainment cable networks improved slightly but still declined 18% YoY.

"Streaming surpasses traditional TV in May," Hodulik told clients. 

Boomers dominate traditional TV consumption. 

What TV consumption used to be like... 

Watching TV with the Family in 1988 pic.twitter.com/WofkdmhOmQ

— Fascinating (@fasc1nate) June 26, 2025

. . .

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 22:10

Why Couldn't The SCO Defense Ministers Agree On A Joint Statement?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

India refused to sign the document since it didn’t condemn late April’s Pahalgam terrorist attack...

India found itself at odds with the SCO once again less than two weeks since it clarified that it didn’t participate in the group’s joint statement on the Iranian-Israeli War.

This time its Defense Minister refused to sign the joint statement that was supposed to conclude last week’s meeting with his peers in Qingdao ahead of the leaders’ summit in Tianjin this autumn.

The reason was that the document didn’t condemn late April’s Pahalgam terrorist attack even though it condemned terrorism in Balochistan.

As this year’s chair, China has extra influence over the SCO’s workings during the events that it hosts, so it therefore follows that this might have been a deliberate provocation meant to signal support for Pakistan while snubbing India.

To add insult to injury, Pakistan blames India for terrorism in Balochistan, which is why it was even more unacceptable from Delhi’s perspective for that issue to be mentioned while no mention was made of the Pahalgam terrorist attack to balance everything out.

India’s conventional retaliation against Pakistan in the aftermath sparked the latest Indo-Pak Conflict between these two SCO members, however, so China or at least its supporters in the media might claim that omitting any mention of Pahalgam was meant to avoid further dividing the group. Be that as it may, it would have been predictable that this would result in India refusing to sign the SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement, but that might have actually been what China was aiming for all along.

To explain, a perception has taken root among some members of the Alt-Media Community and even some experts that India is the so-called “weak link” in the SCO, with the reason allegedly being its close economic and military ties with the US. Adherents ignore China’s much closer economic ties to the US, the Central Asian Republics’ growing military ones with the West in general (especially NATO member Turkiye), and the US’ attempt to subordinate India, however. It’s therefore an agenda-driven narrative.

Nevertheless, this analysis here from early June argued that it was precisely this perception that accounts for why Russia lent credence to Trump’s claim that he personally stopped the latest Indo-Pak Conflict despite Delhi’s repeated denials, which hyperlinks to related pieces over the preceding month. The gist is that a pro-BRI policymaking faction comprised of anti-Western “hardliners” is rising in the Kremlin at the expense of the establishment’s balancing/pragmatist faction that currently calls the shots.

Although the pro-BRI faction hasn’t been able to effect any tangible shift in policy towards (or rather, away from) India due to Putin being part of the balancing/pragmatist faction, that scenario would be of grand strategic importance for China. Russia and India would no longer jointly accelerate tri-multipolarity processes, thus making it more likely that a form of Sino-US bi-multipolarity could one day be restored. Russia would therefore become China’s “junior partner” while India would become the US’ in that event.

Thus, China might have sought to provoke India into refusing to sign the SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement so as to craft optics that could lend more credence to the claim of it being the SCO’s “weak link”, hoping that this can strengthen the influence of Russia’s pro-BRI faction. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov effusively praised India during the summit though so no changes are expected under Putin, but if a member of the pro-BRI faction succeeds him, then this can’t be ruled out in the future.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 21:45

CA Republicans Urge Amnesty For Illegal Immigrants

Authored by Kenneth Schrupp via The Center Square,

Six California Republican state lawmakers sent a letter to President Donald Trump urging Immigration and Customs Enforcement to avoid “sweeping raids” and create “a path to legal status” for “non-criminal undocumented immigrants.”

“We have heard from employers in our districts that recent ICE raids are not only targeting undocumented workers, but also creating widespread fear among other employees, including those with legal immigration status,” wrote the lawmakers.

“We urge you to direct ICE and DHS to focus their enforcement operations on criminal immigrants, and when possible to avoid the kinds of sweeping raids that instill fear and disrupt the workplace.”

Signatories included state Sen. Minority Leader Brian Jones, R-San Diego. Jones authored a bill that failed in committee that would have required the prisons and jails in California to provide requested release dates to federal immigration officials for individuals convicted of serious or violent felonies or wobblers  — crimes serious enough to be prosecuted as either a felony or a misdemeanor.

Under existing state law, such cooperation is prohibited except in limited cases involving some serious or violent crimes.

“We also call on your leadership to modernize our immigration process to allow non-criminal undocumented immigrants with longstanding ties to our communities a path toward legal status,” the letter continued. “America needs a system that reflects both compassion and lawfulness — one that upholds sovereignty while recognizing the reality on the ground.”

“The last President to successfully tackle this issue was Ronald Reagan nearly 40 years ago, and it is long past time to modernize our immigration policies,” the lawmakers wrote.

Reagan’s 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act allowed approximately three million undocumented immigrants who had continuously resided in the United States since before Jan. 1, 1982, to secure legal status. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won California was 1988 when Vice President George H.W. Bush was elected president.

“Finally, we urge you to expand and reform the H-2A and H-2B visa programs to authorize more legal guest workers across the entire economy, and to streamline the process to make it easier for vital industries to get the workers they need,” wrote the lawmakers.

“From construction to hospitality to food processing, California’s employers are struggling to fill positions.”

According to the American Farm Bureau, the federal government authorized 384,900 H-2A temporary agriculture visas. The H-2B visa program for temporary non-agricultural workers is capped at 66,000 per year.

The state’s latest jobs report found 5.3% of Californians, or 1.1 million, were unemployed in May.

The latest federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data on California found there were 659,000 job openings in March 2025, suggesting there may be nearly two unemployed Californians for every open job.

The letter’s signatories included primary author Sen. Suzette Valladares, R-Santa Clarita, along with Sens. Jones, Rosilicie Ochoa-Bogh, R-Yucaipa, and Assemblymembers Heath Flora, R-Ripon; Diane Dixon, R-Newport Beach, and Laurie Davies, R-Laguna Niguel.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 20:55

Elon Musk's xAI Raises $10B As Trump Threatens To Unleash DOGE On Him

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence firm xAI secured $10 billion in fresh capital, doubling down on its challenge to OpenAI as the race to dominate the AI landscape intensifies. The funds were evenly split between secured debt and strategic equity investments.

The influx gives xAI more resources to expand its Memphis-based Colossus supercomputer and train its Grok chatbot, CNBC reported Tuesday, citing Morgan Stanley.

The funding round was reportedly oversubscribed, with major investors vying for stakes in Musk’s AI vision.

Musk’s AI push comes as American rivals race ahead. OpenAI closed a $40 billion raise earlier this year at a staggering $300 billion valuation, while Anthropic secured fresh backing that pushed its value beyond $60 billion.

In March, Musk sold his social media platform X to xAI, integrating Grok directly into the platform. The deal valued xAI at $80 billion and X at $33 billion, deducting $12 billion of debt from the $45 billion valuation. He originally bought X, formerly Twitter, for about $44 billion in April 2022.

Source: NIK

Musk has called Grok a “maximally truth-seeking” AI that is also “anti-woke,” in a bid to set it apart from its rivals.

Musk’s feud with Trump flares up again

The recent raise comes as Musk’s feud with US President Donald Trump has reignited.

On Tuesday, Trump lashed out at Musk on Truth Social, claiming he owes his success to government subsidies and suggesting the federal Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) should investigate Musk’s businesses to cut costs.

“No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” Trump wrote.

Musk fired back on X, declaring, “I am literally saying CUT IT ALL. Now,” distancing himself from reliance on federal support. Their spat over government spending has rattled markets before, with Tesla losing $150 billion in value during a clash in June.

Source: Elon Musk

The renewed hostilities come as Musk has ramped up his political commentary, warning lawmakers who supported the recent spending bill of potential primary challenges and calling for a new party to counter what he sees as runaway government excess.

Lummis pushes for crypto tax relief

Meanwhile, Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced an amendment to Trump’s tax and spending bill aimed at ending what she calls “unfair tax treatment” for crypto users.

The proposal would waive taxes on digital asset transactions under $300, with a $5,000 annual cap, and delay taxes on crypto earned through mining, staking or airdrops until the assets are sold. It would also apply the 30-day wash sale rule to crypto, limiting quick tax-loss strategies.

Earlier, the Senate rejected a Democrat-sponsored amendment that sought to ban government officials and their families from owning or promoting cryptocurrencies, including memecoins and NFTs, for up to a year after leaving office.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 14:20

Takeover Begins: Robots Set To Outnumber Humans At Amazon Warehouses

Amazon hasn't set a public date for fully replacing warehouse workers with robots, but all indicators suggest a gradual transition is well underway, with significant workforce reductions likely, alongside productivity gains driven by automation and AI through the 2030s.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon, the nation's second-largest private employer in the U.S., is quickly approaching a new milestone in warehouse automation: "There will soon be as many robots as humans." This equates to over a million robots. 

Roughly 75% of Amazon's deliveries are now assisted by robotic systems, which perform tasks such as picking, sorting, packaging, and moving items. The rapid integration of robots, such as the advanced Vulcan, marks a significant step toward full automation for fulfillment centers. 

"They're one step closer to that realization of the full integration of robotics," said Rueben Scriven, research manager at Interact Analysis, a robotics consulting firm.

The onboarding of automation has slowed Amazon's hiring. The average number of employees per facility has dropped to a 16-year low, and Amazon plans to reduce its total workforce in the coming years. 

Meanwhile, the number of packages that Amazon ships per employee has soared from 175 in 2015 to approximately 3,870 in recent months, indicating that automation has significantly supercharged the company's productivity gains. 

Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy said recently that AI will be integrated at fulfillment centers "to improve inventory placement, demand forecasting, and the efficiency of our robots."

"We will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs," Jassy said in a memo to employees last month. "It's hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce."

All signs suggest Amazon has reached its employment peak.

To all the Amazon workers pushing to unionize—remember, the robots are coming for your jobs. This trend is accelerating and will persist through the 2030s. For a clearer picture of how many jobs AI will displace, see this 2023 Goldman report. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 14:00

Noem Accuses Anti-ICE App Developer Of Obstructing Justice; Leavitt Blasts CNN For "Promoting" It

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Monday that “ICEBlock,” an app designed to alert individuals of immigration enforcement operations, appeared to constitute obstruction of justice. 

“This sure looks like obstruction of justice,” Noem wrote on X, responding to a CNN segment about the controversial app.

She also warned that the app threatens the safety of ICE agents by putting a target on their backs. 

“Our brave ICE law enforcement face a 500% increase in assaults against them,” she said.

“If you obstruct or assault our law enforcement, we will hunt you down and you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.” 

This sure looks like obstruction of justice. Our brave ICE law enforcement face a 500% increase in assaults against them.

If you obstruct or assault our law enforcement, we will hunt you down and you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. pic.twitter.com/4ZcfrpyRV1

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@Sec_Noem) June 30, 2025

Noem’s comments followed a CNN story on tech developer Joshua Aaron, who created ICEBlock to push back against President Donald Trump’s ICE raids across the country. 

ICEBlock works by encouraging users to report suspected ICE sightings and broadcasts alerts to others nearby.

The app now has more than 20,000 users. 

“When I saw what was happening in this country, I wanted to do something to fight back,” Aaron told CNN, before comparing ICE raids to operations similar of Nazi Germany. “We’re literally watching history repeat itself.” 

According to Aaron, the app does not collect personal data and allows users to report ICE sightings anonymously. 

“We don’t want anybody’s device ID, IP address, location,” Aaron said.

“We don’t want anything being discoverable. And so, this is 100% anonymous and free for anybody who wants to use it.” 

During Monday afternoon’s White House press briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt ripped CNN for what had seemed to her like “unacceptable” behavior by “a major network” in “promot[ing]” the app...

.@realDailyWire’s @MaryMargOlohan: “I just watched a CNN segment on a new app called ICEBlock and it kind of appeared to be promoting this app where you can tell people where ICE agents are. Given the recent rise in —”@PressSec @KarolineLeavitt: “An app that tells people where… pic.twitter.com/nOK9JDP25O

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) June 30, 2025

"...surely it sounds like this would be an incitement of further violence against our ICE officers. As you know — as you stated, there has been a 500% increase in violence against ICE agents, law enforcement oficcers across the country who are just simply trying to do their job and remove public safety threats from our communities. And that’s something we, as Americans, including journalists at CNN, who live in many of these cities where illegal aliens are hiding and were let in from the previous administration, should be very grateful for. So, we haven’t seen the clip. We’ll take a look at it, but certainly it’s unacceptable that a major network would promote such an app that is encouraging violence against law enforcement officers who are trying to keep our country safe."

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 13:40

Attorneys Push For Class Action In Birthright Citizenship Case After Supreme Court Ruling

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

Attorneys are urging a federal judge in Maryland to use an alternative legal mechanism for granting a sweeping block on President Donald Trump’s birthright citizenship order after the Supreme Court ruled against the use of nationwide injunctions.

A conference on June 30 marked the first set of public arguments in which attorneys and a judge attempted to wrestle with the implications of the Supreme Court’s decision just three days prior. Although the Supreme Court said nationwide injunctions were likely inconsistent with judges’ authority, it allowed plaintiffs like the ones in Maryland to pursue broad relief through class actions.

Class actions generally entail judges allowing a plaintiff to represent a larger group of people—otherwise known as a class—and seek relief, such as injunctions, for that class. Quickly after the Supreme Court’s June 27 opinion, attorneys for immigrant organizations and pregnant women asked the federal court in Maryland to recognize a class of people that was made up of people who would be ineligible for birthright citizenship as a consequence of Trump’s order.

During the June 30 conference, U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman repeatedly asked the administration whether it thought it could deport recently born babies of illegal immigrant parents. Justice Department attorney Brad Rosenberg said it was his understanding that the government couldn’t do that until 30 days after the Supreme Court’s decision.

That’s because Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who penned the majority opinion, said that she was halting the lower court injunctions on the president’s birthright order but would still grant a 30-day delay for the most important section to take effect.

Rosenberg told Boardman that he was very confident in his understanding of the 30-day limit on deportations, but she required him to submit something in writing the following day. How the government responds, she said, will bear on how she proceeds with another potential block.

Granting that request could raise additional questions about the Supreme Court’s decision and how plaintiffs in other cases can seek to block the administration’s policies. Rosenberg laid out several potential issues with the judge certifying the class plaintiffs had requested.

He also referenced Justice Samuel Alito’s concurring opinion, which was joined by Justice Clarence Thomas and directed courts to “scrupulous[ly]” adhere to the federal rules around class certification. It also warned that universal injunctions would “return from the grave” if judges refused to abide by those safeguards.

William Powell, one of the plaintiffs’ attorneys, told Boardman that Alito’s opinion was joined by only one other justice. Boardman could grant relief for the proposed class without first certifying it, Powell suggested. He pointed to the Supreme Court’s recent decision to tentatively block Trump’s deportations under the Alien Enemies Act.

Even though a district court had not certified a class of potential deportees, a majority of the Supreme Court appeared to block deportations for that putative class. That decision saw a critical dissent from Alito, who was joined by Thomas then as well.

At one point on June 30, Rosenberg argued that Boardman lacked jurisdiction to effectively replace her prior nationwide injunction with another block. That’s because the case had already been transferred to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, which had jurisdiction over the substance of her initial injunction. Boardman appeared unpersuaded, ordering expedited briefing and saying she was converting the plaintiffs’ request for a temporary restraining order into one for a preliminary injunction, which is more permanent.

There appeared to be some disagreement over what exactly the Supreme Court did in its June 27 decision. Barrett’s opinion temporarily halted the section of Trump’s order that establishes a policy of departments and agencies not issuing documents that recognize citizenship for certain people, including children whose parents were both illegal immigrants.

Another aspect of her opinion allowed the executive branch to follow Trump’s order to the extent that they would develop and issue public guidance on the government’s plan for implementation. That appeared to be a reference to Section 3 of Trump’s order, which directs agencies to issue guidance, among other things.

Powell expressed concern about a portion of that section that directs the secretary of state, attorney general, secretary of homeland security, and commissioner of social security to ensure their policies were consistent with the order. That portion, combined with a section expressing Trump’s view about the limitations of birthright citizenship, might lead to some kind of adverse enforcement for people like the plaintiffs, Powell suggested.

This case—known as CASA Inc. v. Donald Trump—is just one of several that resulted in nationwide injunctions on Trump’s policy.

The Supreme Court’s decision on June 27 did not say whether Trump’s policy was unconstitutional but instead focused on the legality of nationwide injunctions. It also left some wiggle room for lower courts to adjust their orders while not making it entirely clear whether injunctions in cases brought by state governments would lose their nationwide scope altogether.

Boardman asked both sides on June 30 how one of those nationwide injunctions, which was issued by a judge in Massachusetts, would impact the plaintiffs in Maryland. Rosenberg told her that injunction may end up being narrowed. Powell similarly indicated the injunction could be narrowed and that the plaintiffs should receive immediate relief.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 13:00

Circle Applies For US Trust Bank Charter To Manage Its USDC Reserve

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied to establish a national trust bank in the United States that, among other duties, would oversee the firm’s USDC reserve on behalf of its US issuer. 

If the application is approved by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Circle’s First National Digital Currency Bank would be authorized to operate as a federally regulated trust institution, Circle said in a statement on Monday.

Circles Digital Bank also hopes to strengthen the infrastructure that “supports the issuance and circulation” of USDC and offer digital asset custody services to institutional customers, the stablecoin issuer added. 

Source: Jeremy Allaire

National Trust Banks can’t accept cash deposits or issue loans. However, they can offer custodial services and operate nationally under the oversight of the OCC, rather than having to apply for individual state-based money transmitter licenses or specific digital currency licenses, according to law firm Dave Wright Tremaine. 

GENIUS Act compliance 

Circle said a federally regulated trust charter would also help it meet requirements under the proposed GENIUS Act, which passed the US Senate on June 17 and moved to the House of Representatives, where it will face another vote before possibly becoming law. 

Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said Circle is taking “proactive steps to further strengthen our USDC infrastructure” and “align with emerging US regulation for the issuance and operation of dollar-denominated payment stablecoins.” 

National Trust Bank applications to the OCC are subject to a 30-day comment period, and the regulator usually decides to approve or reject within 120 days after receipt of a complete application. 

Other crypto firms also eye bank charters

Circle isn’t the only crypto firm hoping to create a national trust bank under the oversight of the OCC. 

Eleanor Terrett, the host of the Crypto in America podcast, said in an X post on Monday that there are several other crypto firms, including the digital currency wing of financial services giant Fidelity, that are applying for a national bank charter license from the OCC.

Circle has been considering a bank charter since at least 2022 and was also named in The Wall Street Journal report on April 21 as one of several crypto firms considering applying for a bank charter or license.

Anchorage Trust Company became the first crypto firm to receive a license from the OCC in January 2021, converting into Anchorage Digital Bank. 

Circles’ stock trades flat

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares have traded flat in the last trading session, rising 0.48% to $181, Google Finance data shows. In after-hours trading, the stock dropped 1.30% to $178. 

Circle’s share price was flat during the last trading session. 

After going public, Circle stock made a strong entry into the market on June 5, climbing 167% during its first trading session on the New York Stock Exchange. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 12:20

"Party's Over": Auto Sales Sputter After Tariff-Fueled Surge

The auto sales slowdown that emerged in June is largely a hangover from the spring surge, when consumers rushed to dealerships nationwide to beat tariff hikes sparked by President Trump's escalating trade war and new tariffs on trading partners. With affordability still worsening and economic uncertainty elevated, industry researcher J.D. Power now expects sales to remain subdued through the second half of the year. 

Source: Bloomberg 

Bloomberg cited a new report from J.D. Power that showed consumers rushed to buy new vehicles before prices climbed, pushing Q2 sales up 2.5% year-over-year. But that momentum quickly fizzled with the annualized sales rate dropping to 15 million units in June — the slowest in 12 months — down from April's 17.6 million pace.

Source: Bloomberg 

"The party is over," Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for researcher Cox Automotive, said in an interview, adding, "It's slowing. It's because of affordability getting worse and forcing what we think will be production declines to keep supply in balance."

Smoke expects the annualized monthly rate of auto sales to hover around 15 million in the second half of the year, down from 16.3 million during the first six months. Last year, Americans purchased around 16 million cars and light trucks. In the analyst's view, this indicates an apparent slowdown, primarily driven by worsening affordability.

Cox data shows the average cost of a new car is rising, up 1% in June from a year ago to $48,799 — a 28% increase compared to 2019 prices. 

"Given the impact of tariffs, prices are likely to start rising at a much faster rate," Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist for Cox, recently noted. "Higher vehicle prices are coming to the new vehicle market."

Meanwhile, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is beginning to rise again, indicating that used cars are increasingly being chosen as substitutes for new vehicles amid ongoing concerns about affordability. It also points to a tightening supply in the used vehicle market.

There is some good news: Goldman's Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients that he expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, with three 25-basis-point reductions anticipated by the end of the year.

As for this summer, affordability woes persist, and prices stay high—toxic combination for the automobile market.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 11:45

Trump Vs. Musk: "Big, Beautiful Bill" Feud Sparks Overnight Political Firestorm

Update (0800 ET):

Elon Musk on President Trump this morning:

So tempting to escalate this. So, so tempting. But I will refrain for now.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2025

Musk continued: 

And how are we supposed to reach Mars if America goes de facto bankrupt?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2025

*   *   * 

Update (0800 ET):

President Trump on Elon Musk this morning:

• TRUMP: MUSK IS UPSET HE LOST THE EV MANDATE BUT 'HE COULD LOSE A LOT MORE THAN THAT'

• TRUMP, ASKED ABOUT DEPORTING MUSK, SAYS HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK

Reporter: “Are you going to deport Elon Musk?”

President Trump: “I don’t know. I think we’ll have to take a look. We might have to put DOGE on Elon… [DOGE] might have to go back and eat Elon. Wouldn’t that be terrible? He gets a lot of substantives.” pic.twitter.com/2Px5z6XuiN

— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) July 1, 2025

TRUMP tells reporters on cuts in the megabill: "I don't want to go too crazy with cuts. I don't like cuts. There are certain things that have been cut, which is good."

"We're gonna have to see the final version," he says.

— Akayla Gardner (@gardnerakayla) July 1, 2025

*   *   * 

Tesla shares slid in premarket trading in New York following a late-night clash between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. The feud played out across their respective social media platforms.

"Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for president, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate. It is ridiculous, and was always a major part of my campaign. Electric cars are fine, but not everyone should be forced to own one. Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa," Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The president continued, "No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!" 

The Truth Social post came after Musk slammed Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" on X ahead of the final vote, vowing to launch a new political party, claiming that Republicans and Democrats are merely a 'uniparty' operating with a limitless taxpayer-funded credit card.

Anyone who campaigned on the PROMISE of REDUCING SPENDING , but continues to vote on the BIGGEST DEBT ceiling increase in HISTORY will see their face on this poster in the primary next year pic.twitter.com/w13Qkm2e1A

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2025

Wise words https://t.co/XN0qzuHmW7

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 30, 2025

They just pretend to be two parties.

It’s just one uniparty in reality. https://t.co/NEcLJNPXxm

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 30, 2025

If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day.

Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 30, 2025

Tesla has long benefited from the $7,500 EV tax credit, which the BBB plan aims to eliminate. While this move has been widely anticipated, it could ultimately work in Tesla's favor, hitting rivals like Rivian, Lucid, and legacy automakers far harder, as many still rely heavily on such subsidies to stay afloat.

Tesla shares are down 4% in premarket trading, currently hovering around $303 per share. On the year, shares are down 21%, as of Monday's close. 

As for Trump's threat about "no more rocket launches, satellites" — referring to Musk's company SpaceX — good luck following through on that. SpaceX is the reason the U.S. is leading the global space race.

Who's going to replace SpaceX? Blue Origin... Laughable. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/01/2025 - 11:33