Zero Hedge

Futures Rebound From Worst Levels As Oracle Plunges 11% On Cash Burn Fears

December 11, 2025 - 8:39am

Futures Rebound From Worst Levels As Oracle Plunges 11% On Cash Burn Fears

US equity futures are lower, as lousy earnings and an ugly capex forecast by Oracle reversed the market euphoria following the "more dovish than expected" Fed rate cut. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2% but well off session lows, having tumbled as much as 1% earlier; Nasdaq 100 is down 0.4%, reversing earlier losses of 1.5%. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks underperform: NVDA -1.7%, META -1.0%, TSLA -1.0%. ORCL plunged 11.2% in premarket trading after cloud sales missed estimates with free cash flow concerns rising again amid a surge in capex at the worst possible time. Bond yields are mostly unchanged; the USD is lower. Commodities are mixed: oil is down -1.4%; base metals and Ags are lower. Bitcoin slipped nearly 2% as it approached $90,000. Today's US economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims, September trade balance (8:30am) and September final wholesale inventories (10am)

In premarket trading, Nvidia leads Mag 7 names lower after Oracle’s report dampened risk appetite in the AI sector (Apple +0.4%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.6%, Microsoft -0.5%, Tesla -0.6%, Meta -0.6%, Nvidia -1.4%)

Ciena (CIEN) soars 11% after the maker of equipment used by telecom companies posted reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc. (DHIL) shares are halted after Genstar Capital-backed First Eagle Investments agreed to buy the boutique asset-management firm for $473 million in cash.
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) gains 2% after a next-generation obesity shot helped patients lose almost a quarter of their body weight in 68 weeks.
Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI) rises 15% after its application for a derivatives exchange was approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in a move that will allow the company to join the fast-growing field of prediction markets.
Oracle (ORCL) falls 11% after the company forecast 3Q cloud sales growth below analyst estimates, raising concerns that supply constraints are preventing the cloud-infrastructure provider from converting its large backlog to actual revenues.
Oxford Industries (OXM) sinks 21% after the owner of the Tommy Bahama apparel brand cut its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year, missing the average analyst estimate. The fourth-quarter net sales outlook also missed consensus.
Planet Labs (PL) gains 17% after the satellite-imaging firm raised its sales and margin outlook, boosted by new and expanded contracts. Recent wins included an expansion to a contract with NATO and a deal with National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

Caution toward the AI space returned with a vengeance, with Nvidia Corp. down 1.4% to lead Magnificent Seven losses as Oracle, once viewed as a bellwether of the AI investment boom, sank more than 12% in premarket trading after cloud sales missed estimates and the company lifted its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion.

Oracle’s results pushed worries about tech valuations and whether heavy spending on AI infrastructure will pay off back into focus, reviving concerns that fueled weeks of volatility in November. While the sector has powered the S&P 500’s stunning rally this year, spending fears have prompted some investors to rotate into other areas as the US economic outlook remains robust.

"Markets have grown far more wary of AI-related spending, which is a sharp contrast with mid-2025 when anything hinting at higher capex sparked excitement,” said Susana Cruz, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “Oracle has been the weakest link in all this, largely because it’s funding a big chunk of its investment with debt.”

In an attempt to reboot excitement in the sector, Microsoft’s CEO said the company will unveil a new model on Friday that is “going to take agents to the next level.”

Oracle’s earnings landed after the S&P 500 closed just shy of a record on Wednesday, lifted by a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut and Chair Jerome Powell’s sanguine economic outlook. Investors had taken comfort in Fed policymakers leaving the door open to more easing next year, even though the quarter-point cut drew three dissents. Traders stuck to bets on two cuts in 2026, even as the Fed’s new projections signaled only one such move.

“The Fed’s ‘hawkish-but-bullish’ cut last night reinforces this: stronger 2026 growth, faster disinflation,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “Cuts are continuing, but they’re no longer automatic — and that’s usually a constructive backdrop for equities.”

“The effect of Oracle has been greater than the Fed. This already tells us everything as we’ve been witnessing a strong concentration and one theme — AI — leading the market,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “This doesn’t mean that AI is gone or it’s a bubble, but we need to focus on a wider scale.”

In other assets, the IEA trimmed estimates for a global oil supply surplus this year and next for the first time in several months as demand strengthens and output growth slows. And tariffs are back in focus, with Mexican lawmakers giving final approval for new duties on Asian imports.

Technology stocks dragged Asian bourses lower overnight and looked set to do the same in Europe but the Stoxx 600 is now green. Construction, retail and industrial shares are leading gains. The construction and materials sector outperforms, while utilities lag. Software stocks including SAP SE and Sage Group Plc drop after US tech giant Oracle Corp. reported disappointing cloud sales and a jump in AI-related spending. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Thursday:

Schneider Electric shares climb as much as 4.4%, the most since July, after the electrical power products manufacturer announced a share buyback program as it targets growing profitability over the next five years.
Nilfisk shares surge as much as 35%, the most on record, after the cleaning products manufacturer received a takeover offer from Freudenberg Group.
BNP Paribas Bank Polska shares rise as much as 3.5% to a record high, after the Polish unit of BNP targeted acceleration of loan growth and net income in its 2026-2030 strategy.
Carl Zeiss Meditec shares gain as much as 8.6%, the most since April, after the German medical technology firm reported earnings which included a beat on quarterly revenues.
Nordex shares rise as much as 3.9%, on course to close at their highest level since 2007, after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded its recommendation on the wind-turbine maker to buy from hold.
RS Group shares rise as much as much as 5.5%, touching their highest levels since February, after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral, as it sees a better year for European business services in 2026.
Entain shares slip as much as 4.1% after the gambling firm announced that Chief Financial Officer Rob Wood will step down after 13 years.
Naturgy shares drop as much as 6.9%, to the lowest level since April, after BlackRock’s infrastructure arm sold a stake in the Spanish company at a 5.4% discount to Wednesday’s closing price.
SAP shares drop as much as 4.3% to their lowest level since October 2024, after US peer Oracle reported disappointing cloud sales.
Ceres Power shares sink as much as 15% after Grizzly Research discloses that it’s short the clean-energy technology stock.
Delivery Hero shares falls as much as 6.6%, putting the firm among Thursday’s worst performers in the Stoxx 600 index, after Citi downgraded it to sell amid increasing competition in the Middle East and North Africa region.

Earlier, Asian equities erased early advances and fell, dragged by a slide in technology shares as disappointing earnings from Oracle Corp. offset optimism over the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.7%, after rising 0.6% in morning trading Thursday. A gauge of the region’s technology shares dropped 1.7%. SK Hynix declined after Korea Exchange issued an alert on the stock and prohibited margin trading after big gains. Equity benchmarks in Taiwan dropped more than 1%, while those in Japan and South Korea also retreated.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is steady. The Aussie dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback after soft jobs data. The Swiss franc is the best performer, rising 0.4% after the SNB left interest rates on hold.

In rates, treasuries are little changed, with US 10-year yields near flat at 4.14% broadly holding Wednesday’s curve-steepening rally that followed the FOMC rate decision. OIS contracts price in around 50% odds of another 25bp rate cut in March. Trading of short-term rate products remains in focus as the Fed’s plan, also announced Wednesday, to buy $40 billion of Treasury bills per month. Yields are 1bp-2bp richer on the day with belly outperforming, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year yields is near 4.135% after peaking near 4.21% Wednesday, highest since Sept. 4. The week’s Treasury auction cycle concludes with $22 billion 30-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time, following good demand for 3- and 10-year note sales Monday and Tuesday. WI 30-year yield near 4.78% is ~9bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by 1bp.

In commodities, oil retreated toward the lowest since October, tracking wider losses in risk assets. WTI crude futures fall 1.3% to around $57.70 a barrel. Spot gold drops $15. Silver extended an all-time high past $62 an ounce. Bitcoin is down over 2% near $90,000.

Looking ahead, today's US economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims, September trade balance (8:30am) and September final wholesale inventories (10am)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.5%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7%
Russell 2000 mini little changed
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.1%
DAX little changed
CAC 40 +0.4%
10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.14%
VIX +0.3 points at 16.1
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1209.7
euro little changed at $1.1704
WTI crude -1.6% at $57.54/barrel

Top Overnight News

Trump said any deal for Warner Bros. Discovery must include the sale of CNN, a potential wrinkle for Netflix’s bid. As the takeover fight plays out, the political divide grows. BBG
NEC Director Hassett said the Fed has plenty of room to cut rates and probably will need to do some more, while he added that data could support a 50bps cut and they could definitely get to 50, or even more. Hassett also said a 25bps cut would be a small step in the right direction and that President Trump will make the Fed Chair choice in a week or two.
US House of Representatives voted 312-112 to pass the USD 901bln defence spending bill
China now has the biggest power grid the world has ever seen. Between 2010 and 2024, its power production increased by more than the rest of the world combined. Last year, China generated more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. Some Chinese data centers are now paying less than half what American ones pay for electricity. WSJ
China put rate cuts in play after pledging to adopt supportive monetary and fiscal policy to bolster the economy. It will “flexibly” use interest rate and RRR cuts. Policymakers also plan to step up efforts to stabilize the housing market. BBG
The BoJ sees limited need for emergency intervention to restrain rising bond yields, a move that runs counter to its effort to roll back stimulus. RTRS
The SNB kept its interest rate at zero, in line with expectations, judging that a weakened inflation outlook doesn’t yet justify a return to negative borrowing costs. BBG
Mexico approved tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese and other Asian imports, broadly aligning itself with US efforts targeting Beijing. China urged Mexico to “correct” its unilateral and protectionist practices. BBG
Mexico’s tariff hike will affect $1 billion worth of shipments from major Indian car exporters, including Volkswagen and Hyundai. BBG
Rents for Manhattan apartments surged to a record high in November. New leases were signed at a median of $4,750 in the month, up 13% from a year earlier and 3.3% from October. RTRS
The United States can use other measures to recreate the roughly $200 billion in revenues it is collecting under tariffs based on a 1977 law if the Supreme Court strikes down use of that law, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday. RTRS

Trade/Tariffs

UK pledges an additional GBP 1.5bln for NHS medicines as part of Trump tariff deal, according to FT.
Britain is to reform the system to speed up investigations into unfair trade practices and is to sharpen trade defences by giving the trade secretary power to direct investigations, according to draft government guidance.
Mexico approves wide-ranging tariffs of up to 50% on China, according to Bloomberg. China's Commerce Ministry later commented regarding Mexico's tariffs that it will closely monitor the implementation and will further evaluate the impact, while it added that the measures harm the interests of relevant trade partners, including China.
India's CEA chief economic advisor said most trade issues with the US have been sorted out and will be surprised if there is no deal with the US by March.
Mexico's tariffs to hurt Indian-made car exports of Volkswagen (VOW3 GY), Hyundai (5380 KS), Nissan (7201 JT) and Maruti Suzuki (7269 JT), according to Reuters Sources. It was earlier reported by Bloomberg that Mexico approved wide-ranging tariffs of up to 50% on China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately subdued after failing to sustain the early positive momentum from the dovishly perceived FOMC where the Fed lowered rates by 25bps to between 3.50-3.75%, as expected, but with a less hawkish tilt than what Wall Street had anticipated, although much of the gains were eventually wiped out as a slump in Oracle post-earnings stoked tech and AI-related concerns. ASX 200 eked mild gains but with upside limited by the latest jobs data, which showed a surprise contraction in jobs that was solely due to a drop in full-time work. Nikkei 225 reversed its opening gains and more amid pressure from a firmer currency and as AI-exposed stocks were hit, including SoftBank. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gradually retreated with the mainland not helped by another liquidity drain by the PBoC, while trade-related uncertainty lingered, with China said to have held urgent discussions with major domestic tech firms on Wednesday about whether to permit purchases of NVIDIA’s H200 processors.

Top Asian News

HKMA cut its base rate by 25bps to 4.00%, as expected, and in lockstep with the Fed.
China's Commerce Ministry said China has taken measures to grant exemptions on Nexperia chips for compliant exports intended for civilian use.
China's Foreign Ministry on tensions with Japan said Japanese PM Takaichi's attitude makes it impossible to engage in dialogue.
China's Commerce Ministry said non-state import quota for fuel oil in 2026 set at 20mln metric tons.
China holds annual central economic work conference on Dec 10-11th, according to Xinhua; said China is to make use of RRR rate cut flexibly. Will continue to expand domestic demand. Will build strong domestic market. Will consolidate, stabilise economy. Will implement appropriately loose monetary policy. Will implement more proactive fiscal policy. Will maintain yuan exchange rate basically stable. Will step up counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment. Will optimise fiscal expenditure structure. Will emphasise resolving local fiscal difficulties. Will flexibly use policy tools including RRR, rate cuts. Will actively resolve local govt debt risks, prohibit new hidden debt. Will stabilise property market with city-specific measures. Encourages buying existing homes for social housing.
Japan's Lower House passes supplementary budget bill for FY2025 to fund new economic policy package under PM Takaichi, according to Jiji.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened broadly lower, but managed to clamber off worst levels as the morning progressed, albeit marginally so. European sectors also held a negative bias as the open, but now display a mixed picture. Construction leads followed by Autos whilst Tech is weighed down by pressure seen in Oracle (-11% pre-market) after its earnings.

Top European News

ECB's Makhlouf said he is confident that medium-term inflation will be at 2%.
SNB maintains its Policy Rate at 0.00% as expected; SNB reiterates it remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary. Inflation in recent months has been slightly lower than expected. In the medium term, however, inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared to the last monetary policy assessment. Sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. Although US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on the global economy, economic developments in many countries had thus far remained more resilient than had been assumed.
SNB Chairman Schlegel said the Bank will continue to observe the situation and adjust monetary policy where necessary to keep price stability Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The low level of interest rates in Switzerland is having an effect via the exchange rate. Mid-term inflation pressure is practically unchanged since the previous quarter. Ready to intervene in the FX market if necessary. Policy continues to be expansionary, and supports inflation and the economy. Cannot say lower CPI outlook makes NIRP more likely.
ECB proposes expanding the existing small banks regime to include more banks for supervision purposes. Recommends merging bank capital stack into 2 elements; a releasable and a non-releasable buffer. The non-binding pillar 2 guidance would be kept separate, on top of the releasable buffer. ECB design or role of additional tier 1 instruments could be adjusted to enhance loss absorption capacity.
BoE's Bailey said BoE should not have interest rate risk on its balance sheet, the question is how fast to remove it.

FX

DXY attempted a recovery from the post-FOMC slump, which saw the index fall to a 98.592 low yesterday before extending lower to 98.537; though the index is now flat. A floor was found during APAC trade as risk began to wane. To recap, the Fed cut rates by 25bps to 3.5-3.75%, as expected, but in a dovish 9-3 vote split - Goolsbee and Schmid voted to leave rates unchanged, while Miran wanted a larger 50bps reduction. In terms of the session ahead stateside, weekly initial jobless claims (for the week of 6th December) are seen rising to 220k from 191k (last week's low reading was largely due to seasonal adjustment factors); continuing claims (for the week of 29th November) are seen ticking up to 1.947mln from 1.939mln. Wholesale sales and inventory revisions are also due today.
High beta FX (CAD, GBP, NZD, AUD) are all softer, with state-side sentiment also lower following the Fed and Oracle earnings. AUD is the laggard following the Aussie jobs report overnight, which showed a surprise contraction in jobs that was solely due to a drop in full-time work. Little move was seen on China's Economic Work conference readout, which noted that China is to make use of RRR rate cut flexibly. EUR/USD is uneventful around the 1.1700 mark in a narrow 1.1683-1.1707 parameter.
CHF was unmoved by the SNB rate decision, which was overall as expected with no fireworks (some expected a return to NIRP). SNB kept rates at 0.00% and reiterated its language on FX, that it “remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary”. In terms of inflation projections, 2025 was unchanged, whilst 2026 and 2027 were revised a touch lower. The CHF, however, saw mild strength during the press conference, in which he said he cannot say whether a lower CPI outlook makes NIRP more likely. USD/CHF dipped as low as 0.7979 (vs high 0.8001).
RBI likely selling USD to help INR avert a sharp fall, according to traders cited by Reuters

Fixed Income

USTs continue to build on the post-FOMC upside; in brief, the FOMC cut rates by 25bps to 3.50-3.75%, as expected, while the vote split was a bit more dovish than expected. For US paper specifically, the Fed also said it will start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity, in which the initial round will total around USD 40bln in Treasury bills per month to help manage market liquidity levels. Currently trading in a 112-11 to 112-18+ range, and another leg higher would see a retest of the high from 8th December at 112-19. From a yield perspective, the FOMC sparked a bull steepening, which has continued into today. Now attention turns to a number of US data points, incl. Jobless Claims, Wholesale Sales and then a 30-year auction, which follows on from a strong 3yr and mostly positive 10yr.
Bunds follow USTs, and are now flat to trade in a current 127.36 to 127.77 range. Newsflow is incredibly light this morning, with price action essentially a paring of some of the upside seen following the FOMC. Elsewhere, UBS analysts recommend a long 10yr Bund trade, target 2.75% yield; said term premia priced by markets are too high – for reference, current 10yr yield is at 2.85%.
Elsewhere, Gilts remain bid, as UK paper plays catch-up to peers – price action muted and within a narrow 91.22 to 91.38 range.
Italy sells EUR 5bln vs exp. EUR 4.0-5.0bln 2.35% 2029, 3.00% 2029, 2.70% 2030 BTP

Commodities

Crude benchmarks have sold off throughout the APAC session and into the European session as risk tone sours across equity markets despite an FOMC cut that was perceived dovish. After opening at USD 58.92/bbl and USD 62.43/bbl respectively, WTI and Brent trended c. USD 1.30/bbl lower to session lows of USD 57.57/bbl and USD 61.20/bbl as equities sold off. The selloff completely reversed Wednesday's gains following the seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.
Spot XAU peaked to USD 4248/oz early in the APAC session as the metal continued its gains following the dovish FOMC announcement. As the APAC session continued, however, XAU reversed lower as the dollar began to strengthen and equities sold off. In past sessions, XAU has been moving in-tandem with equities despite its safe haven characteristics, perhaps explaining the selloff in the APAC session.
3M LME Copper gapped higher and drove higher to a peak of USD 11.72k/t, USD 30/t shy of ATHs, before falling back lower as global risk tone soured. The red metal stabilised at USD 11.58k/t and has since remained in a tight USD 60/t band.
Russia's Energy Ministry expects oil refining and gas and coal production to remain at 2024 levels in 2025, via RIA.

Geopolitics: Middle East

US officials discussed hitting the UN Palestinian refugee agency with terrorism-related sanctions, according to sources cited by Reuters.
US State Department condemned the Houthis' ongoing unlawful detention of current and former local staff of US missions to Yemen.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

Ukrainian navy drones in the Black Sea struck the "Dashan" vessel that is part of Russia's shadow fleet, while the attack led to the tanker being disabled.
The EU is looking to reach an agreement by Friday to lengthen the freeze on Russian assets using emergency powers, according to Bloomberg citing people familiar.
Russia's Lavrov said Russia wants a package of documents on a long term sustainable peace for Ukraine. Should be security guarantees for all sides.
Ukrainian drones struck Lukoil's oil extraction platform in the Caspian sea, according to SBU source cited by Reuters; oil and gas production halted.
Russia’s Lavrov said European peacekeepers in Ukraine "will Be A Target ", via Interfax.

Geopolitics: Other

US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, while President Trump said the vessel was seized for a very good reason, and Attorney General Bondi said the oil tanker was used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran. Furthermore, Guyana's government said the oil tanker seized by the US was falsely flying a Guyana flag and that it will take action against the unauthorised use of the Guyanese flag.
Russia's Kremlin said President Putin plans to meet Turkey's President Erdogan during his visit to Turkmenistan.
Russia's Kremlin said Russia remains open to investment. It was reported by the WSJ that US companies could invest in strategic sectors from rare-earth extraction to drilling for oil in the Arctic and help restore Russian energy flows to Western Europe and rest of the world.

US Event Calendar

8:30 am: Dec 6 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220k, prior 191k
8:30 am: Nov 29 Continuing Claims, est. 1938k, prior 1939k
8:30 am: Sep Trade Balance, est. -63.1b, prior -59.6b
10:00 am: Sep F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%

DB's Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap

Last night saw the market rally resume after the Fed cut rates by 25bps, which included enough dovish hints to pare back the hawkish repricing over recent days. So the S&P 500 (+0.67%) closed less than 0.1% beneath its record high, whilst 2yr Treasury yields (-7.7bps) saw their best day in two months. However, that momentum behind risk assets has been lost overnight, as disappointing results from Oracle after the US close pushed their shares down -11.52% in after-hours trading. And in turn, S&P 500 futures are down -0.90% this morning, with those on the NASDAQ 100 down -1.20%. So even as investors were reassured by the Fed’s latest rate cut, familiar concerns about AI are still very much top of mind right now.

In terms of the Fed decision, the FOMC delivered a third consecutive cut that took the target range for the fed funds rate down to 3.50-3.75%. This was a 9-3 decision, with Governor Miran again advocating for a larger 50bp cut, whereas regional Fed presidents Goolsbee and Schmid favoured no change. The cut was accompanied by implicit signals that the Fed could remain on hold in early 2026. For instance, the dot plot showed the median participant only expecting one more rate cut in 2026, while new wording on “the extent and timing” of further rate adjustments signaled a possible pause ahead. Powell also emphasised that the FOMC was “well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves” as recent easing had brought the policy stance “within a broad range of estimates of neutral”.

However, this cautious guidance was accompanied by several dovish-leaning elements. Notably, the updated economic projections struck a sanguine tone, with real GDP revised higher across the 2025-27 period, whilst 2026 headline and core PCE inflation were revised -0.1pp and -0.2pp lower to 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. The statement also dialed up the tone on the recent uptick in unemployment while Powell sounded a bit more sanguine on upside inflation risks, saying that “inflation has come in a touch lower” recently and that “most of the inflation overshoot is from tariffs”. Our US economists’ base case remains that Powell has now delivered the last rate cut of his tenure as chair, but continued labor market weakness could swing the FOMC to cut again in the next few months (see their full reaction note here).
Away from rates policy, the Fed also announced they’ll begin reserve-management purchases of Treasury bills. Those will start at $40bn a month from next week and are expected to “remain elevated for a few months” before slowing significantly after the April tax payment window. This will mark the first sustained increase in the size of the Fed balance sheet since the Fed ended QE in spring 2022. And it was a slight surprise this was announced at yesterday’s meeting, even if a shift towards more active liquidity management had been expected by early 2026.

After the decision, markets saw the FOMC’s signal as favourable to expectations of a 2026 rate cut. So even though a rate cut is only priced at 20% by the next meeting in late-January, futures currently signal a 52% chance of a cut by March as we go to press this morning. Moreover, there was a dovish shift in the futures curve, with the rate priced by the December meeting down -6.6bps on the day, meaning that 55bps of cuts were priced for next year by the close. In turn, that meant 2yr Treasury yields fell by 5 to 6bps intraday after the FOMC to register their biggest daily decline in two months (-7.7bps to 3.54%), and 10yr yields fell by -4.1bps on the day to 4.15%. That trend has continued overnight as well, with the 10yr yield down another -2.1bps to 4.13%. And this also weighed on the dollar index, which fell -0.44% yesterday to a six-week low.

Although the Fed’s decision helped to support equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.67%) closing just -0.06% below its all-time high, it’s been a very different story overnight following Oracle’s earnings. They reported after the US close, but their revenues fell short of analysts’ estimates, with their share price down -11.52% in after-hours trading. So that’s pushed US equity futures lower this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.90%, whilst those on the NASDAQ 100 have fallen -1.20%.

That more negative trend has continued in Asia overnight, where there’ve been losses across the major indices. So the Nikkei (-0.97%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.75%), the CSI 300 (-0.52%), the Hang Seng (-0.22%) and the KOSPI (-0.20%) are all lower this morning. And those losses have been particularly sharp for tech stocks, with the Hang Seng Tech index down -1.12%. Bond yields have also moved lower, which partly reflects the Fed and the wider risk-off tone this morning, but we also saw Japan’s 20yr auction have its strongest demand since 2020. Moreover, the latest employment data from Australia showed an unexpected contraction of -21.3k in November (vs. +20.0k expected), which has raised doubts about the likelihood of a near-term rate hike by the RBA. Indeed, yields on 10yr Australian government bonds are down -8.9bps this morning, and the Australian dollar is the worst-performing G10 currency, down -0.59% against the US dollar.

Before the Fed and Oracle’s earnings, investors had priced in a growing chance of an ECB rate hike for 2026, which is now seen as a 40% chance. That gave the European bond selloff a fresh dose of momentum, which was particularly clear at the front end of the curve. For instance, the 2yr German yield (+2.2bps) rose to 2.17%, its highest level since the fiscal stimulus announcements were made in March. And that was echoed across the continent, with yields on 2yr French (+2.4bps) and Italian (+1.6bps) debt also at their highest in months. However, the long-end was more subdued, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.1bps), OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+0.3bps) seeing smaller increases that still left them beneath their closing level on Monday. In the meantime, equities saw a relatively stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.07%) inching up after three consecutive declines.

On the theme of central banks, yesterday also brought the Bank of Canada’s decision, who held their policy rate at 2.25% as expected. This followed rate cuts at the previous two meetings, but this time their statement said that if the economy and inflation evolved in line with their October projections, then they felt rates were “at about the right level”. In turn, Canadian government bond yields fell back, with the 2yr yield down -6.0bps on the day, whilst the 10yr fell -4.4bps.

Finally, there wasn’t too much data yesterday, although we did get the Employment Cost Index (ECI) from the US for Q3. That came in a bit softer than expected at +0.8% (vs. +0.9% expected), and it was also the slowest pace since Q3 last year. So that helped to ease fears about inflationary pressures, particularly with the year-on-year pace now down to +3.5%, the slowest since Q2 2021.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, along with the trade balance for September. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 08:39

Continuing Jobless Claims Plummet To 8 Month Lows

December 11, 2025 - 8:38am

Continuing Jobless Claims Plummet To 8 Month Lows

After plunging near 60 year lows in the prior week (at 192k), initial jobless claims rebounded (as many expected) to 236k last week - back into the 'normal' range and nothing at all to worry about from a labor market perspective...

Source: Bloomberg

Sure enough it was California in large part that was responsible for the chaos...

Source: Bloomberg

But while initial claims rebounded back to 'normal', continuing jobless claims plummeted

Source: Bloomberg

We assume whatever screw-up that seasonal adjustments caused in initial claims the week before have rippled through to the continuing claims data this week, but still - taken at face value, it's great news!

However, there could be an even more silver lining as we noted last week, before Trump sent out his ICE troops, California's Continuing Claims were running ~400K per week. Beginning in the summer, however, these claims steadily dropped... and perhaps this week's crash in continuing claims is the chopping block coming down on illegals claiming benefits in California?

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 08:38

The Orbital Data Center Space Race Has Officially Begun

December 11, 2025 - 8:25am

The Orbital Data Center Space Race Has Officially Begun

We've highlighted a new theme: data centers in low Earth orbit, or at least the race to get these AI chips into space.

Week after week, the news flow shows a new space race taking shape, as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Sam Altman appear to be the major players in the scramble to get chips into orbit - almost certainly joined by other billionaires quietly working behind the scenes.

The latest news on the AI chips-in-space theme comes from a Bloomberg report that Musk's SpaceX is planning to raise $30 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, with some of the proceeds expected to be used for space-based data centers.

We must note that Musk has the only capable space program that could rapidly deploy space-based data centers at scale; neither China nor Russia, nor even Bezos' Blue Origin, currently has this capability.

Meanwhile, ChatGPT founder Sam Altman attempted to buy rocket startup Stoke Space this past summer, with the intent of joining the space race to launch AI chips into orbit.

A new Wall Street Journal report on Wednesday afternoon added more color about the Musk-Bezos space-based data center race:

Bezos' Blue Origin has had a team working for more than a year on technology needed for orbital AI data centers, a person familiar with the matter said. Musk's SpaceX plans to use an upgraded version of its Starlink satellites to host AI computing payloads, pitching the technology as part of a share sale that could value the company at $800 billion, according to people involved in the discussions.

The push to move data centers into low Earth orbit is all about sidestepping Earth's power constraints and soaking up precious resources, harnessing essentially limitless solar energy, and leveraging space's near-zero thermal environment to keep advanced AI chips cool.

"Taking resource-intensive infrastructure off Earth has been an idea for years, but it has required launch and satellite costs to come down. We are nearing that point," Will Marshall, CEO of satellite operator and builder Planet Labs, told WSJ.

Making spaceflight affordable has been SpaceX's focus with its reusable rockets, and once Starship becomes commercialized, costs should drop even further.

Let's remind readers that SpaceX is effectively America's rocket program - and it leads the world by light-years.

This makes Musk and xAI uniquely positioned to scale data centers quickly.

SpaceX also leads in terms of spacecraft upmass...

WSJ noted that Google and Planet Labs plan to conduct a 2027 space test using satellites equipped with Google AI chips. Early tests aim to demonstrate feasibility, while full-scale systems will require thousands of satellites to match a single large terrestrial data center.

Latest from Musk about data centers in space.

The lowest cost place for data centers is space when 300 GW of computer data center you can power and cool in space when you have continuous solar and no batteries needed. @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/J5EMJt8rRw
— Marc Benioff (@Benioff) November 19, 2025

And Bezos.

Jeff Bezos plans to build a data center in space within the next 10+ years.

Unlimited solar energy available 24/7, space is an ideal location for data centers.$AMZN AWS is set to make major moves out there. pic.twitter.com/KJCEO973eQ
— Bourbon Capital (@BourbonCap) October 3, 2025

Why stop with data centers in low Earth orbit? How about on the moon? We're sure Starlink's in-space mesh network can help with that... So crypto mining on the moon as well? All things space are about to kick off with SpaceX's IPO slated for next year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 08:25

Lilly's Next-Gen Obesity Shot Shows Best-In-Class Weight Loss In Study

December 11, 2025 - 8:05am

Lilly's Next-Gen Obesity Shot Shows Best-In-Class Weight Loss In Study

Shares of Eli Lilly are higher in premarket trading after the company unveiled blowout topline results for its next-generation obesity drug retatrutide, which delivered more than 23% weight loss over 68 weeks - the strongest performance yet for a late-stage obesity trial.

Adult patients in the Phase 3 TRIUMPH-4 trial testing retatrutide, a first-in-class GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon triple hormone receptor agonist, entered the study with obesity or overweight and knee osteoarthritis. Most participants had a BMI of 35 or higher.

Result highlights for both high-dose regimens (9 mg and 12 mg):

Met all primary and key secondary endpoints
Produced massive weight loss: up to 28.7% on average (71.2 lbs) at 68 weeks
Delivered major pain improvement: up to 4.5 points (75.8%) reduction on the WOMAC pain score
Improved physical function, in addition to weight and pain outcomes

"We are encouraged by the results of TRIUMPH-4, which highlight the powerful effect of retatrutide, a first-in-class triple agonist, on body weight, pain and physical function. With seven additional Phase 3 readouts expected in 2026, we believe retatrutide could become an important option for patients with significant weight loss needs and certain complications, including knee osteoarthritis," Kenneth Custer, Ph.D., executive vice president and president, Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, wrote in a statement.

Some patients lost so much weight they chose to exit the trial early, particularly those with a BMI below 35. The highest dose saw an 18% dropout rate due to side effects, including nausea, diarrhea, constipation, and occasional mild dysesthesia.

"Not all patients may need this potentially very high level of efficacy, and we believe retatrutide will likely be best suited for patients with a very high BMI, or with obesity-related complications that require a high degree of weight loss," Lilly's Chief Scientific Officer Daniel Skovronsky told investors in October.

The results come as the race for next-generation obesity drugs intensifies: Shares of rival Novo Nordisk plummeted the most on record after an experimental GLP-1 fell short of Wall Street expectations last year. The drug CagriSema helped patients lose an average of 20.4% of their weight, far short of Novo's promise.

Stock Chart: Lilly vs. Novo

Is Goldman still putting their clients in Novo?

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 08:05

Dark-Fleet Tanker At Epicenter Of Iran's Shadow Oil Trade Seized By U.S. Commandos

December 11, 2025 - 7:45am

Dark-Fleet Tanker At Epicenter Of Iran's Shadow Oil Trade Seized By U.S. Commandos

Welcome to Monroe Doctrine 2.0 - a revival of gunboat diplomacy - where U.S. forces just carried out an exceptionally rare move: seizing a massive dark-fleet tanker off Venezuela, long known as a key tanker for Iran's shadow oil trade.

Maritime tracker MarineTraffic shows that the vessel commandeered by a U.S. special operations team, which rappelled onto the tanker's deck from a Black Hawk helicopter on Wednesday (watch here), is the VLCC Skipper, carrying a million barrels of crude.

Here's more from MarineTraffic:

U.S. forces seize tanker linked to covert Venezuelan crude shipment

U.S. forces have seized an oil #tanker believed to be the VLCC Skipper, after satellite imagery showed she secretly loading 1.1 million barrels of sanctioned Merey crude at Venezuela's José Terminal. The vessel had been transmitting falsified AIS positions during the operation, a tactic increasingly used by "dark fleet" tankers tied to Venezuelan and Iranian trades.

MarineTraffic data shows the vessel has been sanctioned by OFAC since November 2022 and repeatedly linked to high-risk activity. Her cargo history includes multiple liftings from Venezuela and Iran, while operational risk signals show a two-month AIS gap in Iranian waters. The vessel has also conducted high-risk and dark STS transfers in the Red Sea, Iranian and Syrian zones, alongside multiple AIS spoofing events. Here's the playback of the vessel's latest movements.

US forces seize tanker linked to covert Venezuelan crude shipment

US forces have seized an oil #tanker believed to be the VLCC Skipper, after satellite imagery showed she secretly loading 1.1 million barrels of sanctioned Merey crude at Venezuela’s José Terminal. The vessel had… pic.twitter.com/MJji0O20qT
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) December 10, 2025

Anas Alhajji of Energy Outlook Advisors asked several key questions after the U.S. seized the tanker:

Who is the target?
What is the impact on global oil markets?
Shipping?
Tanker rates?

⭕️Who Is the Target? What is the impact on global oil markets? Shipping? Tanker rates?

⭕️U.S. Forces Seize Guyana-Flagged VLCC “Skipper” Carrying Venezuelan Crude Bound for Cuba!

Link: https://t.co/CMcYGcx3d1 pic.twitter.com/uR5dUyWvvu
— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) December 11, 2025

Intelligence firm Kpler noted:

The seizure underscores Washington's escalating efforts to crack down on dark-fleet activity tied to Iranian and Venezuelan crude trades.

The incident comes amid heightened U.S. military presence in the region, and as Venezuela's crude exports dropped to 700 kbd in November. The Skipper has been repeatedly linked to sanction evasion tactics, including spoofing and mislabeled Iranian cargoes routed through Asia, raising alarms about ongoing maritime deception.

Satellite imagery from November 14 shows the seized VLCC Skipper loading crude at Venezuela's José Oil Terminal. Credit: European Union Copernicus Sentinel.

Tanker with Venezuela oil seized by U.S.

U.S. forces have seized an #oil tanker believed to be the VLCC Skipper, following satellite evidence that it covertly loaded 1.1 million barrels of sanctioned Merey crude from Venezuela’s Jose Terminal. Despite transmitting falsified AIS… pic.twitter.com/7tjRUFBM3S
— Kpler (@Kpler) December 10, 2025

In markets, Brent crude round-tripped any fears of market disruptions as this seizure off Venezuela's shore is isolated.

CBS cited a statement from the Venezuelan government that read, "It strongly denounces and repudiates what constitutes a shameless robbery and an act of international piracy."

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 07:45

Tether Launches Privacy-Focused Health Platform With On-Device AI

December 11, 2025 - 7:20am

Tether Launches Privacy-Focused Health Platform With On-Device AI

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tether has launched a new platform that aggregates data from multiple wearables and wellness apps into a single, locally processed dashboard, aiming to give users control over their biometric information.

The platform, called QVAC Health, aggregates data from fitness trackers, nutrition apps and other wearables into an encrypted dashboard that works offline, using on-device AI and peer-to-peer model downloads to analyze activity, meals, symptoms and medication logs without relying on external servers.

The app includes experimental computer-vision tools that can estimate calories and macronutrients from meal photos and can correlate those logs with data from multiple wearables to identify patterns in activity, recovery or sleep, all processed locally on the user’s device, according to a Wednesday announcement.

Source: QVAC

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino called the platform a “neutral ground for wellness data” that reflects the “company’s commitment to privacy-preserving local intelligence.”

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, says future updates will include direct Bluetooth Low Energy connections that will let the app read data from certain wearables without routing information through manufacturer APIs or cloud services.

The platform is part of Tether Data’s QVAC project, which builds peer-to-peer, device-based AI systems designed to operate without relying on centralized platforms.

The global fitness-tracker market was valued at $52.29 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $189.98 billion by 2032, according to a Verified Market Research report. Major fitness-tracker manufacturers include Apple, Fitbit, Samsung, and Huawei.

Privacy concerns drive new developments across crypto

Tether’s new platform aligns with comments Ardoino made in 2024, when he argued that running local AI models directly on user devices was the only reliable way to prevent data from being harvested or exposed through centralized servers.

Former White House adviser David Holtzman told Cointelegraph in December 2024 that AI-driven data aggregation and future quantum threats make large data repositories especially vulnerable.

Holtzman noted that AI can rapidly assemble behavioral and transactional data to identify targets more precisely, while future quantum attacks could break today’s encryption standards across sectors.

He said decentralized systems can help reduce these risks by avoiding large, centralized data stores.

The evolution of the internet. Source: Dock/Cointelegraph

The various threats to privacy have spurred some action in the crypto community. In June, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed a “pluralistic identity” model — a digital ID approach that lets people prove who they are or qualify for services without exposing all of their personal information.

In December, Fortune reported that Circle is developing a privacy-enhanced stablecoin called USDCx with Aleo, designed to give institutional users banking-level transaction privacy while preserving the ability to furnish compliance records when necessary.

Growing concerns over data exposure and surveillance have also fueled renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, with the Zcash protocol emerging as one of the beneficiaries.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 07:20

EU Opens Antitrust Probe Into Google's Use Of Publisher, YouTube Content For AI

December 11, 2025 - 6:30am

EU Opens Antitrust Probe Into Google's Use Of Publisher, YouTube Content For AI

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

The EU has launched an antitrust investigation into whether Google exploited publisher and YouTube content to fuel its AI products without fair compensation or consent.
Regulators warn that the practices may give Google an unlawful competitive edge over rival AI developers across Europe.
This is the EU’s second investigation against Google in a month, as Brussels cracks down on Big Tech’s AI practices.

The European Commission launched a formal antitrust investigation this week into whether Google breached EU competition rules by using web publisher and YouTube content to power its artificial intelligence services without fair compensation or consent.

"The Commission will investigate to what extent the generation of AI Overviews and AI Mode by Google is based on web publishers' content without appropriate compensation for that, and without the possibility for publishers to refuse without losing access to Google Search," a Tuesday statement said.

Publishers must either let Google use their content for AI summaries without payment or risk losing visibility in Search.

YouTube creators face a similar dilemma, as uploading gives Google automatic AI-training rights with no compensation while rival AI developers are barred from using the same content.

"AI is bringing remarkable innovation and many benefits for people and businesses across Europe, but this progress cannot come at the expense of the principles at the heart of our societies,” Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, said in the statement.

Even Alex Chandra, partner at IGNOS Law Alliance, told Decrypt the investigation "reflects a deeper, structural ambition: to subject globally scalable digital business models to the EU's regulatory and competitive framework."

“If the Commission is not very disciplined (transparent about burden-of-proof, consistent across geography and business model) this could become less about “fair competition” and more about “favoring what fits European regulatory and economic priorities,” he said.

If proven, the practices under investigation may breach EU competition rules that ban dominant companies from using their market power to distort competition.

The regulator said it will carry out its investigation as a matter of priority, but provided no legal deadline for concluding the probe.

Big tech cornered

The investigation comes less than a month after the Commission formally launched proceedings to assess whether Google applies fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory conditions of access to publishers' websites on Google Search under the Digital Markets Act.

In September, the Commission fined Google $3.1 billion (€2.95 billion) for breaching EU antitrust rules by favoring its own advertising technology services over competing providers.

Europe's competition regulator has opened a formal investigation into tech giant Meta over policy changes that allow the company's own AI chatbot to operate on WhatsApp while blocking rivals from doing the same. The European Commission announced Thursday it's examining whether Meta violated antitrust rules by effectively reserving WhatsApp's AI chatbot access for itself. The action targets updated business terms WhatsApp rolled out in late October, which ban third-party AI companies from distri...

The Commission ordered Google to end its self-preferencing practices and implement measures to address conflicts of interest across the adtech supply chain.

Last week, the Commission also opened an investigation into Meta over policy changes that allow its own AI chatbot to operate on WhatsApp while blocking rivals from doing the same.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 06:30

Indonesia Targets Finfluencers In Crackdown After P2P Investment Losses

December 11, 2025 - 5:45am

Indonesia Targets Finfluencers In Crackdown After P2P Investment Losses

Indonesia’s financial regulators are stepping up action against social-media investment gurus after a wave of losses tied to risky digital platforms and unverified financial advice. Beginning this week, a new rule issued by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) will force securities firms to vet, supervise and assume legal responsibility for content produced by influencers they pay, according to Nikkei.

Influencers who analyze investments must be licensed advisers, while those promoting products must register as marketing partners and clearly disclose paid endorsements. They will also be required to explain risks, not just potential returns. As the OJK cautioned in an October campaign, “The next time a piece of financial advice blows up on your feed, take a pause. Just because it’s viral doesn’t mean it’s sound.”

The crackdown coincides with mounting complaints against peer-to-peer lending (P2P) apps once hyped by finfluencers. Akseleran, one of the country’s most recognizable platforms, is being sued by at least 19 investors who say they collectively lost around 6 billion rupiah. The company attributes its problems to borrowers defaulting en masse. Several other platforms, including KoinP2P, Crowde and Dana Syariah Indonesia, are under similar scrutiny. The OJK recently revoked Crowde’s license and is coordinating with police to investigate potential criminal activity tied to other platforms.

Nikkei writes that one casualty of that boom-and-bust cycle is 29-year-old Surabaya resident Anita Carolina. Three years ago she was persuaded by a financial influencer to invest 471 million rupiah (about $28,000) in Akseleran. Today she is still trying to recover the money. The experience, she says, changed the way she invests. “Investing should not be marketed as a casual game. Influencers are salespeople, not financial advisers,” she said, adding that she now avoids them “entirely.”

Carolina’s story reflects a broader shift in Indonesia’s financial landscape. Investor participation has exploded, climbing from 2.5 million registered participants in 2019 to 19.2 million in October 2024, fueled by easy-to-use apps and pandemic-era interest in alternative income. Many new retail investors — dominated by millennials and Gen Z — chased high returns through stocks, crypto and P2P lending, often guided not by licensed professionals but by relatable personalities on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube. A 2023 CELIOS survey found that 70% of Indonesians trust finfluencers, nearly equal to the 69.5% who trust certified advisers.

Experts say that reliance has created a fertile market for unqualified “advisers” who blur the line between education and marketing. “It has become easy for individuals to label themselves as finfluencers without a proper background,” said economist Tauhid Ahmad. Many fail to disclose paid partnerships, while others promote products they barely understand. Regulators have also struggled to keep up: from 2017 to September 2024, the OJK says it blocked over 13,000 illegal financial entities, most involving online loans or investment schemes that quickly resurface in new forms.

Some influencers now admit their own role in fueling unsustainable P2P enthusiasm. TikTok creator Felicia Putri Tjiasaka, who has 1.4 million followers, said she also invested in Akseleran but exited in 2023. “In Indonesia, it’s the productive P2P sector that is failing,” she told her followers, citing economic pressures and lax credit screening.

Others argue regulations are long overdue. Educator and influencer Roy Shakti says untrained personalities are “positioning themselves as experts to teach trading,” and supports measures similar to China’s ban on wealth-flaunting. “You won’t find me promising easy money,” he said. “Instead, I teach people how to raise funding and avoid scams.”

Though she continues to invest in mutual funds and bitcoin, Carolina now conducts her own research before committing a single rupiah. “It’s disappointing, as I followed their advice,” she said. “But now, I avoid them entirely.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 05:45

Pakistan Offers To 'Take Grooming Gang Leaders' If UK Hands Over Dissidents

December 11, 2025 - 2:00am

Pakistan Offers To 'Take Grooming Gang Leaders' If UK Hands Over Dissidents

via Middle East Eye

Pakistan has reportedly offered to take back grooming gang leaders in exchange for Britain handing over Pakistani political dissidents living in the UK.

Pakistani media reported that the proposal was made in a private meeting last Thursday in Islamabad between Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Jane Marriott, the British high commissioner. Naqvi reportedly urged the UK to hand over anti-government figures Shahzad Akbar and Adil Raja.

via Al Jazeera

Akbar, who was a minister in Imran Khan's government, and Raja, a former army major, are both living in the UK. They have both strongly criticized the Pakistani government over its alleged human rights abuses and suppression of political dissent.

The British government has previously requested that Pakistan extradite Adil Khan and Qari Abdul Rauf, who were jailed in 2012 as ringleaders of a grooming gang that sexually assaulted and abused 47 girls over two years in Rochdale.

Both Khan and Rauf, Pakistani immigrants, were stripped of their British citizenship after being convicted. But days before a judge ordered them to be deported to Pakistan, they renounced their Pakistani citizenship. Pakistan has since refused to accept them.

According to Pakistani media, the Pakistani government said it would accept Khan and Rauf if the UK hands over dissidents Akbar and Raja.

'Unprecedented and deeply disturbing'

This comes as the Labor government is facing mounting pressure to take further action on child sexual exploitation. Its attempts to set up a nationwide inquiry into grooming gangs have faced repeated delays and debates about how wide its scope should be.

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said on Monday the inquiry must "consider the role of ethnicity, religion and other cultural factors" and should "leave no stone unturned".

It is thought that Britain is highly unlikely to agree to the reported Pakistani proposal, and the Home Office and Foreign Office have declined to comment on the reports.

Raja, now a freelance journalist, told The Telegraph that the report "is unprecedented and deeply disturbing. It shows the extent to which an authoritarian regime is willing to go to suppress dissent".

"I have broken no UK law. My only 'offence' is practicing journalism and exercising free expression," he said. "I trust that the UK, a country committed to the rule of law and press freedom, will not allow political critics to be traded away under pressure from a foreign government."

The Beasts won and they’re still here !

A member of a Rochdale grooming gang who is fighting to remain in the UK has told a tribunal he “has not committed that big a crime”.
Adil Khan, 51 and Qari Abdul Rauf, 52, have been told they are to be sent back to Pakistan for the… pic.twitter.com/ygHMs0vwft
— Deport Foreign Criminals (@peterstopcrime) February 16, 2025

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from government in April 2022 through a parliamentary no-confidence vote following a fallout with the country's influential military.

He has spent more than two years in prison. Last year a UN report concluded that his detention is arbitrary and in contravention of international law.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 02:00

Pakistan Offers To 'Take Grooming Gang Leaders' If UK Hands Over Dissidents

December 11, 2025 - 2:00am

Pakistan Offers To 'Take Grooming Gang Leaders' If UK Hands Over Dissidents

via Middle East Eye

Pakistan has reportedly offered to take back grooming gang leaders in exchange for Britain handing over Pakistani political dissidents living in the UK.

Pakistani media reported that the proposal was made in a private meeting last Thursday in Islamabad between Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Jane Marriott, the British high commissioner. Naqvi reportedly urged the UK to hand over anti-government figures Shahzad Akbar and Adil Raja.

via Al Jazeera

Akbar, who was a minister in Imran Khan's government, and Raja, a former army major, are both living in the UK. They have both strongly criticized the Pakistani government over its alleged human rights abuses and suppression of political dissent.

The British government has previously requested that Pakistan extradite Adil Khan and Qari Abdul Rauf, who were jailed in 2012 as ringleaders of a grooming gang that sexually assaulted and abused 47 girls over two years in Rochdale.

Both Khan and Rauf, Pakistani immigrants, were stripped of their British citizenship after being convicted. But days before a judge ordered them to be deported to Pakistan, they renounced their Pakistani citizenship. Pakistan has since refused to accept them.

According to Pakistani media, the Pakistani government said it would accept Khan and Rauf if the UK hands over dissidents Akbar and Raja.

'Unprecedented and deeply disturbing'

This comes as the Labor government is facing mounting pressure to take further action on child sexual exploitation. Its attempts to set up a nationwide inquiry into grooming gangs have faced repeated delays and debates about how wide its scope should be.

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said on Monday the inquiry must "consider the role of ethnicity, religion and other cultural factors" and should "leave no stone unturned".

It is thought that Britain is highly unlikely to agree to the reported Pakistani proposal, and the Home Office and Foreign Office have declined to comment on the reports.

Raja, now a freelance journalist, told The Telegraph that the report "is unprecedented and deeply disturbing. It shows the extent to which an authoritarian regime is willing to go to suppress dissent".

"I have broken no UK law. My only 'offence' is practicing journalism and exercising free expression," he said. "I trust that the UK, a country committed to the rule of law and press freedom, will not allow political critics to be traded away under pressure from a foreign government."

The Beasts won and they’re still here !

A member of a Rochdale grooming gang who is fighting to remain in the UK has told a tribunal he “has not committed that big a crime”.
Adil Khan, 51 and Qari Abdul Rauf, 52, have been told they are to be sent back to Pakistan for the… pic.twitter.com/ygHMs0vwft
— Deport Foreign Criminals (@peterstopcrime) February 16, 2025

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from government in April 2022 through a parliamentary no-confidence vote following a fallout with the country's influential military.

He has spent more than two years in prison. Last year a UN report concluded that his detention is arbitrary and in contravention of international law.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 02:00

FBI Arrests Alleged MS-13 Assassin, 'Kill Squad' Leader In Nebraska: Patel

December 11, 2025 - 12:00am

FBI Arrests Alleged MS-13 Assassin, 'Kill Squad' Leader In Nebraska: Patel

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A suspected leader of the criminal gang MS-13 has been arrested in Nebraska, FBI Director Kash Patel said in a Dec. 9 post on X.

Gerson Cuadra Soto, a Honduran national, “is believed to be responsible for overseeing one of their major kill squad units—and suspected of executing the assassination of the son of the former President of Honduras,” Patel wrote.

“This is part of the FBI’s Joint Task Force Vulcan investigation out of @FBIHouston to locate, indict, and arrest members of MS-13 leadership ‘La Mesa.’”

On July 14, 2022, Saíd Omar Lobo Bonilla, son of former Honduran President Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo Sosa, and three other men were killed outside a nightclub in Honduran capital city Tegucigalpa.

Joint Task Force Vulcan is an initiative launched in August 2019 under the first Trump administration that aims to disrupt and eliminate MS-13.

La Mesa, or “The Table,” is a group of senior MS-13 gang leaders who allegedly authorize murders throughout the United States.

Patel commended FBI Omaha, Nebraska, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), the Drug Enforcement Administration, and other partners for their work that resulted in Soto’s arrest.

“This admin is taking a whole of government approach to dismantling MS-13 and their presence within the country,” he said. MS-13, also known as Mara Salvatrucha, was designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the State Department in February.

In a Dec. 9 statement, Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen welcomed the arrest of Soto, who he said was illegally in the country and living in the city of Grand Island.

“Cuadra Soto, a leader of the terrorist MS-13 gang and Honduran assassin, entered the United States illegally in 2022 under Biden’s watch—eventually obtaining a California driver’s license before establishing a residence in Grand Island,” Pillen said.

“Here’s the simple truth: Weak borders put our families at risk. Thankfully, under conservative Republican leadership, our border has never been more secure.”

Expanding Scope

Under the Trump administration, the FBI has intensified its targeting of foreign criminal groups.

In March, the FBI announced that it was expanding its counterterrorism mission to aggressively battle transnational organized crime.

The announcement was made after the State Department designated several international cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists.

The FBI changed the name of its Terrorist Screening Center to the Threat Screening Center, saying that the updated name expands the scope of national security screening to cover groups such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua that operate in the United States.

U.S. military personnel escort alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and the MS-13 gang recently deported by the U.S. government to be imprisoned in the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) prison, as part of an agreement with the Salvadoran government, in San Luis Talpa, El Salvador, on March 30, 2025. Secretaria de Prensa de la Presidencia/Handout via Reuters

“Border security is essential to protecting our country and providing safer communities for our citizens,” Patel said in a statement at the time.

“We’re expanding the watchlist to include cartel and gang members from newly designated foreign terrorist organizations. This change will assist our law enforcement and Intelligence Community partners as we all work together toward the goal of crushing violent crime within our borders.”

In a Dec. 3 statement, the Department of the Treasury said that its Office of Foreign Assets Control has sanctioned key affiliates of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization.

“Under President Trump, barbaric terrorist cartels can no longer operate with impunity across our borders. The Tren de Aragua network’s narcotrafficking and human smuggling operations have long posed a grave threat to our nation,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said in the statement.

A March report from the State Department detailed the threats posed by transnational criminal organizations. It specifically highlighted Mexican criminal organizations as “one of the greatest threats” to the United States.

Mexico was deemed to be the most significant source of illicit fentanyl and fentanyl analogues, with Mexican groups Sinaloa Cartel and New Generation Jalisco Cartel the primary distributors of these drugs in North America, the report said. Mexico is also the source of most of the heroin and meth seized in the United States.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 00:00