Zelensky Signs Letter Of Intent To Acquire Whopping 150 Swedish Fighter Jets Over Next 10-15 Years

In the latest clear sign that NATO is seeking to build-up Ukraine's military infrastructure as well as aerial defenses for the long-haul, and as much as decades into the future, Ukraine has signed a letter of intent with Swedish government to acquire a huge batch of advanced fighter jets over the next ten to fifteen years.

President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Norway and then Sweden on Wednesday for the signing ceremony and a press conference. He signed a declaration of intent with Stockholm which is "the first document that opens the way for Ukraine to receive a very serious fleet of Gripen combat aircraft."

Ukraine intends to acquire 100–150 Saab Gripen jets. Getty Images

Astoundingly, Ukraine says it seeks to acquire as many as 150 Saab Gripen Es over the long term. This would be a purchase worth billions, with some initial aircraft expected to be delivered as early as 2026.

"We must do everything possible to see the results of this memorandum next year," Zelensky said, also confirming that Ukrainian pilots are already being trained on the advanced fighter. He further hailed the "powerful aviation platforms".

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared "This is the start of a long journey of 10-15 years." He met Zelensky in the city of Linkoping, which is home to the country's defense company Saab.

"We are talking about roughly three years before we can start deliveries. And we cannot deliver all 150 aircraft in one batch. Deliveries will be possible over the next three years," Kristersson stated.

The modernized "E" version of the Saab JAS 39 Gripen has only this month entered use by the Swedish Air Force, and it will be seen as vital in modernizing the Ukrainian Air Force, which also currently possesses US F-16s.

The upgraded fighter is seen internationally as a cheaper alternative to America's highly advanced and ultra-expensive F-35. One aviation journal has described as follows:

Despite its similar outward appearance, the Gripen E is regarded as a completely new aircraft type — as you can read about here.

Ultimately, the Gripen E will take over the tasks currently performed by the Gripen C/D, but the two will serve together for “a relatively long period of time,” according to the Swedish Air Force.

In basic mission terms, the Gripen E offers a longer range and can carry a heavier load than its predecessor. The aircraft is slightly larger than the C-model at just under 50 feet and includes a beefed-up fuselage that accommodates approximately 30 percent more fuel. The aircraft also features larger air intakes, the more powerful General Electric F414 engine, and a total of 10 hardpoints. 

One analyst was further quoted: "It’s a completely new system — built to meet future requirements for survivability, range, sensors, and interoperability. It’s the result of Swedish engineering and innovation with a clear focus on operational effectiveness."

Step into the invisible battlefield of electronic warfare. See how Gripen E dominates the spectrum to outsmart radars, sensors, and missiles—through intelligence and innovation.

Watch the full video here: https://t.co/zXKkEDaTXy pic.twitter.com/hwBwUXZhGT

— Saab (@Saab) October 3, 2025

It is anyone's guess where the Russia-Ukraine war will be one year from now, and certainly the future decade is highly unpredictable. The conflict is growing more dangerous by the day, especially given NATO's ever increasing involvement.

Currently there's much speculation that this new Swedish aircraft purchase will be funded utilizing frozen Russian assets in European banks, which the Kremlin has denounced as theft and piracy.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 02:45

Germany Stands To Lose & Poland To Gain From The EU's Latest Energy Move

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Poland’s role in providing more US LNG to Central & Eastern Europe is expected to erode Germany’s influence in this region and accelerate Poland’s revival of its lost Great Power status.

The European Council decreed that the import of Russian gas will be banned across the bloc next year, but with varying lengths of grace periods for countries with short- and long-term contracts, the longest of which will last till 1 January 2028. The Council earlier admitted that pipeline gas and LNG combined accounted for a little less than a fifth of the bloc’s imports last year. It should also be mentioned that the EU continues to import Russian oil too, including indirectly, which has proven to be similarly scandalous.

Nevertheless, the EU’s plans to phase out the remaining fifth of its gas imports from Russia will further enfeeble its economy by leading to their replacement with more expensive US LNG, which will predictably result in the costs being passed down to consumers. This was entirely predictable too since the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in US energy by 2028 per the terms of their lopsided trade deal from last summer that was assessed here as having turned the EU into the US’ largest-ever vassal state.

Germany is expected to be the most dramatically affected by this development in terms of its domestic politics and geostrategy. As regards the first, a greater decrease in living standards caused by the costs of more expensive US LNG being passed down to consumers could accelerate the AfD’s rise, which would lead to significant political changes if they’re ever able to form a government. Even if they’re kept out of power, such blatant meddling by the elites could worsen political polarization and associated tensions.

On the topic of German geostrategy, Poland with whom Germany is competing for influence over Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) is poised to play a supplementary role in supplying Czechia and Slovakia with US LNG via the Swinoujscie terminal and the planned one in Gdansk. Ukraine will be supplied too. These countries lie within the sphere of influence that Poland envisages creating upon the revival of its lost Great Power status. Czechia and Slovakia are also part of the Visegrad Group together with Poland.

Hungary is a member too and could be supplied with US LNG via Poland or Croatia’s Krk terminal, whose expansion is one of the priority projects of the “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI) that Poland and Croatia co-founded in 2015 but which is now led by Warsaw. While Germany commands much more influence over CEE due to being the EU’s de facto leader and boasting its largest economy, Poland’s influence over them is increasing through its future role in suppling US LNG, which might pull them away from Berlin one day.

Energy geopolitics play a significant role in geostrategy so the impact of the aforesaid trend shouldn’t be underestimated if it continues to unfold. In that event, the overarching trend would be the likely decline of German influence over CEE, greatly facilitated as it was by Germany’s voluntary participation in the US’ anti-Russian sanctions regime and then the Nord Stream terrorist attack which pushed it beyond the point of no return. These might be seen in hindsight as the beginning of a new regional order in CEE.

While Germany thought that it would inflict a strategic defeat upon Russia, the US ended up inflicting a strategic defeat upon Germany by engineering the circumstances whereby its only Western competitor’s economy would decline. Together with Poland, whose Anglo-American-backed revival of its Great Power status conveniently creates a regional wedge between Germany and Russia, the US is geostrategically re-engineering Europe at Germany’s expense in order to facilitate Russia’s post-Ukraine containment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/23/2025 - 02:00

Xi's Purges Reveal His Insecurity

Authored by Brahma Chellaney via Project Sybndicate,

From surveilling and repressing Chinese citizens to firing and prosecuting potential rivals, Chinese President Xi Jinping seems able to rule only through fear. But fear is not a foundation for long-term stability, and the more Xi seeks to consolidate power, the more vulnerable his position becomes.

During his 13 years in power, Xi Jinping has steadily tightened his grip on all levers of authority in China – the Communist Party of China (CPC), the state apparatus, and the military – while expanding surveillance into virtually every aspect of society. Yet his recent purge of nine top-ranking generals, like those before it, shows that he still sees enemies everywhere.

After taking power in 2012, Xi launched a crackdown on corruption within the CPC and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The campaign was initially popular, because China’s one-party system is rife with graft and abuse of power. But it soon became clear that enforcement was highly selective – a tool not for building a more transparent or effective system, but for consolidating power in Xi’s hands. In Xi’s China, advancement depends less on competence or integrity than on earning the leader’s personal trust.

But even after more than a decade of promoting only loyalists, Xi continues to dismiss officials regularly, including top military commanders. According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, nearly five million officials at all levels of government have been indicted for corruption under Xi. And this is to say nothing of those who simply disappear without explanation.

True to form, Xi’s regime claims that the military leaders swept up by his latest purge – including General He Weidong, a member of the Politburo, Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission, and the third-highest-ranking figure in China’s military hierarchy – committed “disciplinary violations” and “duty-related crimes.” But a more plausible explanation is that Xi is playing an interminable game of Whac-a-Rival, desperately trying to preserve his grip on power.

Xi’s fears are not entirely misplaced: each new purge deepens mistrust among China’s elite and risks turning former loyalists into enemies. From Mao Zedong to Joseph Stalin, there is ample evidence that one-man rule breeds paranoia. By now, Xi may well have lost the ability to distinguish allies from foes. At 72, Xi remains so insecure in his position that, unlike even Mao, he has refused to designate a successor, fearing that a visible heir could hasten his own downfall.

None of this bodes well for China. By refusing to lay the groundwork for an eventual leadership transition, Xi sharply increases the risk that the end of his rule – however that comes – will usher in political instability. In the meantime, Xi’s emphasis on personal fealty over ideological conformity is weakening institutional cohesion in a system once grounded in collective leadership. Coupled with his arbitrary firings and prosecutions, Chinese governance is now increasingly defined by sycophancy and anxiety, rather than competence and consistency.

China’s military is paying a particularly steep price for Xi’s insecurity. In recent years, the PLA has undergone sweeping structural reforms aimed at transforming it into a modern fighting force capable of “winning informationized wars.”

But Xi’s purges risk undermining this effort by disrupting military planning and leadership. For example, his abrupt removal in 2023 of the leaders of the PLA’s Rocket Force, which oversees China’s arsenal of nuclear and conventional missiles, may have jeopardized China’s strategic deterrent.

Replacing experienced commanders with untested loyalists might ensure Xi’s political survival – and Chinese leaders have often used the military to safeguard their own power – but it does nothing for national security.

And when generals are preoccupied primarily with political survival, both morale and operational readiness suffer. Can the PLA fight and win a war against a major adversary like the United States or India while operating under the political constraints Xi has imposed on it?

So far, Xi has advanced his expansionist agenda through stealth and coercion rather than open warfare. But a paranoid leader surrounded by sycophants unwilling or unable to challenge him is always at risk of strategic miscalculation. Recall that Stalin decimated the Red Army’s leadership on the eve of the Nazi invasion – with disastrous results. In Xi’s case, it might be China that does the invading, if he orders an amphibious assault on Taiwan.

For all the pomp surrounding China’s rise, the country is beset by structural problems, including a slowing economy, rising youth unemployment, and an aging and declining population. Popular discontent may well be growing, but it is masked by repression, just as any potential challenge to Xi’s leadership is preempted by purges and prosecutions. Ultimately, Xi seems able to rule only through fear.

But fear is not a foundation for long-term stability. A leader consumed by fear of disloyalty may command obedience but not genuine fidelity. Obedience is not merely a poor substitute for strength; it can become a source of fragility, as it leaves little room for creativity, competency, or collaboration. The great irony of Xi’s approach is that the more he seeks to consolidate power in his own hands, the more vulnerable his rule becomes.

Mao’s purges culminated in chaos and national trauma. Xi’s methods are more sophisticated, but the underlying logic is the same – as could be the results.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 23:25

Anthropic's Anti-Nuke AI Filter Sparks Debate Over Real Risks

Now, for some news on the lighter side...like 'how to prevent machines from enabling nuclear armageddon"..

In August, Anthropic announced that its chatbot Claude would not — and could not — help anyone build a nuclear weapon. The company said it worked with the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to ensure Claude couldn’t leak nuclear secrets, according to a new writeup from Wired.

Anthropic deployed Claude “in a Top Secret environment so that the NNSA could systematically test whether AI models could create or exacerbate nuclear risks,” says Marina Favaro, Anthropic’s head of National Security Policy & Partnerships. Using Amazon’s Top Secret cloud, the agencies “red-teamed” Claude and developed “a sophisticated filter for AI conversations.”

This “nuclear classifier” flags when chats drift toward dangerous territory using an NNSA list of “risk indicators, specific topics, and technical details.” Favaro says it “catches concerning conversations without flagging legitimate discussions about nuclear energy or medical isotopes.”

Wired writes that NNSA official Wendin Smith says AI “has profoundly shifted the national security space” and that the agency’s expertise “places us in a unique position to aid in the deployment of tools that guard against potential risk."

But experts disagree on whether the risk even exists. “I don’t dismiss these concerns, I think they are worth taking seriously,” says Oliver Stephenson of the Federation of American Scientists. “I don’t think the models in their current iteration are incredibly worrying … but we don’t know where they’ll be in five years.”

He warns that secrecy makes it hard to judge the system’s impact. “When Anthropic puts out stuff like this, I’d like to see them talking in a little more detail about the risk model they’re really worried about,” he says.

Others are more skeptical. “If the NNSA probed a model which was not trained on sensitive nuclear material, then their results are not an indication that their probing prompts were comprehensive,” says Heidy Khlaaf, chief AI scientist at the AI Now Institute. She calls the project “quite insufficient” and says it “relies on an unsubstantiated assumption that Anthropic’s models will produce emergent nuclear capabilities … not aligned with the available science.”

Anthropic disagrees. “A lot of our safety work is focused on proactively building safety systems that can identify future risks and mitigate against them,” a spokesperson says. “This classifier is an example of that.”

Khlaaf also questions giving private firms access to government data. “Do we want these private corporations that are largely unregulated to have access to that incredibly sensitive national security data?” she asks.

Anthropic says its goal isn’t to enable nuclear work but to prevent it. “In our ideal world, this becomes a voluntary industry standard,” Favaro says. “A shared safety practice that everyone adopts.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 23:00

ICE Tracker Planned By Democrats Could Endanger Agents, Bondi Says

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Attorney General Pam Bondi said on Oct. 22 that a plan by Democrats to launch an online platform tracking Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Los Angeles could endanger federal agents and expose them to harassment or violence.

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif) said during an Oct. 21 press conference alongside Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass that Democrats on the House Oversight Committee will launch what Garcia called a “master ICE tracker.” The online database would allow the public to submit and review reports of ICE activity across the Los Angeles area, including videos and other data.

“Over the course of the next couple of weeks, the Oversight Committee will be launching on their website a master ICE tracker where we’re going to be essentially tracking every single instance that we can verify that the community will send,” Garcia said.

“You’ll be able to send us information on. It’ll be all available in one central place, and you’ll be able to look up that information as it relates to Los Angeles as well.”

Garcia described the initiative as part of a wide congressional investigation into alleged wrongful detentions by ICE under the Trump administration. Garcia also said he plans to hold a congressional field hearing in Los Angeles, where residents can testify about immigration enforcement concerns, calling it part of a broader inquiry into alleged civil rights violations by federal agents.

He has joined forces with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who is leading a parallel investigation through the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The two lawmakers recently sent a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem demanding records on what they described as the unlawful detention of U.S. citizens and immigrants by ICE agents.

The ICE tracker project drew swift condemnation from Bondi, who said such tools could compromise law enforcement operations and fuel organized hostility toward immigration officers.

“Shutdown Democrats are already refusing to pay our law enforcement agents. Now, @RepRobertGarcia and @SenBlumenthal are trying to put ICE agents at risk just for doing their jobs,” Bondi said in an Oct. 22 post on X.

“@TheJusticeDept has ZERO tolerance for violence against law enforcement—we will prosecute any person who physically assaults our agents.”

Border czar Tom Homan said recent heated rhetoric, along with efforts to expose the movements and identities of ICE agents, have already correlated with a surge in organized attacks on law enforcement personnel and facilities.

Protestors demonstrate against ICE operations while blocking the Sixth Street Bridge between Boyle Heights and the downtown area of Los Angeles, on July 1, 2025. Mario Tama/Getty Images

“Death threats, attacks up over 1,000 percent,” Homan said in a recent interview on The Alex Marlow Show, attributing the escalation to “hateful rhetoric” by some media figures and politicians who compare ICE to Nazis or the Gestapo.

He said the Department of Justice (DOJ) was already investigating the financing of organized groups that attack ICE agents and facilities in a coordinated way

“They will find out who is funding this, and they will be held accountable,” Homan said, adding that the riots are “absolutely organized.”

The DOJ under the Trump administration previously pressured Apple and Meta to remove apps and social media pages that tracked ICE operations. Apple deleted an app called ICEBlock earlier this month following a DOJ request, citing potential risks to agents’ safety.

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) at the Capitol in Washington on April 1, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

Garcia has defended his proposal, saying that the tracker would expose civil rights violations by immigration officers.

Citing a recent ProPublica report, he said at least 170 U.S. citizens had been wrongly detained by ICE agents.

“Why? Because they look like me, because they are of Latino origin, or because they are suspected to not be a U.S. citizen, or because they are suspected of crimes that they have not committed,” Garcia said on Oct. 21.

After Bondi’s social media warning, Garcia responded in an online post: “Hey @AGPamBondi, ICE detaining over 170 U.S. citizens is not them ‘just doing their jobs.’”

Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin rejected the criticism. She told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that the department “enforces federal immigration law without fear, favor, or prejudice.”

She said claims that ICE targets U.S. citizens or engages in racial profiling are “disgusting, reckless, and categorically false.”

McLaughlin added that assaults on ICE officers have risen by more than 1,000 percent amid “smears” from “sanctuary politicians,” and warned that anyone who obstructs or assaults law enforcement will face consequences.

She said that since June 6, ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection have arrested more than 7,100 illegal immigrants in the Los Angeles area.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 22:35

America's Sixth Default Is Coming - What It Means For Gold And Your Wealth

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Every time the US government has faced an existential financial crisis in its history, it has chosen to change the rules rather than honor its promises in full... usually by replacing gold or silver with paper.

From the War of 1812 when interest payments were missed, to the Lincoln’s Greenbacks, to Roosevelt voiding gold clauses in 1933, the end of silver redemption in 1968, and Nixon closing the gold window in 1971, Washington has defaulted five times before—often by shifting the terms of payment rather than admitting outright failure.

There’s no doubt these episodes were defaults. To claim otherwise would be like trying to unilaterally change the terms of your dollar-denominated mortgage or credit card bill so that you could pay your liabilities with Argentine pesos or Zimbabwe dollars—and then pretending that somehow it wasn’t a default.

The US government is essentially telling its creditors the same thing Darth Vader once said: “I am altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.”

Just like in Star Wars, the message is clear—Washington will change the rules whenever it needs to. Creditors may get paid, but not in the way they were promised, and certainly not in the way they expected.

Today, the US government is once again in an existential financial bind. The national debt is unmanageable, federal spending is locked on an upward path, and interest on that debt has already surged past $1 trillion a year. At this pace, interest could soon overtake Social Security as the single largest item in the federal budget.

The largest expenditures are entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. No politician will cut them—in fact, they’ll keep growing. Tens of millions of Baby Boomers, nearly a quarter of the population, are moving into retirement. Cutting benefits is political suicide.

Defense spending, already massive, is also off-limits. With the most precarious geopolitical environment since World War 2, military spending isn’t going down—it’s going up.

Welfare programs are similarly untouchable.

The only way to meaningfully reduce spending would be to slash entitlements, dismantle the welfare state, shut down hundreds of foreign military bases, and repay a large portion of the national debt to lower the interest cost. That would require a leader willing to restore a limited Constitutional Republic.

However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.

Here’s the bottom line: Washington cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.

Tax revenue won’t save the day either.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it would not be enough to stop the debt from growing.

According to Forbes, there are around 806 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $5.8 trillion.

Even if Washington confiscated 100% of billionaire wealth, it would barely fund a single year of spending—and it wouldn’t do a thing to stop the unstoppable trajectory of debt and deficits.

That means interest expense will keep exploding. It has already surpassed the defense budget and is on track to exceed Social Security soon. At that point, interest could consume most federal tax revenue.

The old accounting tricks and fiat games won’t hide the reality for much longer.

In short, the skyrocketing interest bill is now an urgent threat to the US government’s solvency. I have no doubt Washington will soon find itself unable to meet its obligations once again.

So the question now is: what will the sixth default look like?

I don’t think the sixth default will be a dramatic, one-day event like in 1933 or 1971. It will be a slow-motion process: steady debasement of the dollar to cover a debt burden that cannot be serviced honestly. And just like in the past, Washington and its lackeys in the media will never admit it’s a default.

Unlike the past, the US no longer has obligations tied to gold or silver. Everything is denominated in fiat currency that the Federal Reserve can create without limit.

The mechanics are different, but the outcome will be the same: creditors will get stiffed with money worth far less than what was promised.

After the 1971 default, which cut the dollar’s last tie to gold, the unspoken promise was that Washington would be a responsible steward of its fiat currency.

At the core of that promise was the illusion that the Federal Reserve would act independently of political pressures. The idea was simple: without at least the appearance of independence, investors would see the Fed for what it is—a funding arm for spendthrift politicians—and confidence in the dollar would collapse.

That illusion is now shattering.

The government must issue ever-growing amounts of debt while keeping rates low to contain exploding interest costs.

That’s where the Federal Reserve comes in.

Backed into a corner, Washington will force the Fed to slash rates, buy Treasuries, and launch wave after wave of monetary easing. These measures will debase the dollar while destroying the illusion of Fed independence.

That’s why I believe the collapse of the Fed’s credibility as an independent institution will define the sixth default.

One of the clearest signs is Trump’s push to consolidate power over the Fed.

Let’s be clear: central banks were never “independent.” They exist to siphon wealth from the public through inflation and funnel it to the politically connected. The Fed’s independence was always a mirage—and now it’s disappearing fast.

Trump is simply doing what any leader in his position would do. No one believes China’s central bank is independent of Xi. If any nation faced a similar crisis, its central bank would fall in line with government demands.

I expect Trump will get his way with the Fed. The Fed will bend to his demands, debasing the dollar to keep the debt burden from spiraling out of control. He will either force Powell to get in line or replace him outright, stacking the Fed with loyalists. The result will be money printing on a scale we’ve never seen before.

Trump’s efforts are already starting to work. At Jackson Hole, Powell admitted that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” signaling that rate cuts could come soon.

And that’s exactly what happened. On September 17, the Fed cut rates by 25bps and indicated more to come.

Further, Stephen Miran, Trump’s most recent successful nominee to the Federal Reserve Board, has been pushing the idea of what he calls the Fed’s “third mandate.”

Traditionally, the Fed has two mandates: price stability and maximum employment. Miran’s proposed third mandate would be for the Fed to “moderate long-term interest rates.”

What that really means is that the Fed would openly finance the federal government by creating new dollars to buy long-term debt, keeping yields artificially low. In other words, the so-called third mandate is an explicit admission that the Fed is no longer independent. It would become a political tool used to fund government spending.

Without this support, massive federal spending would flood the market with Treasuries, pushing interest rates much higher. But with the Fed stepping in, Washington can keep borrowing while holding rates down—at least for a while. The catch is that this comes at the cost of debasing the dollar. Eventually, that debasement will force investors to demand higher yields anyway, which only worsens the problem.

I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Fed fully capitulates, shattering the illusion of independence once and for all.

Mike Wilson, CIO at Morgan Stanley, recently made it explicit:

“The Fed does have an obligation to help the government fund itself.”

“I’d be nervous if the Fed was totally independent. The Fed needs to help us get out of this deficit problem.”

This is the essence of the sixth default.

It won’t come through missed payments or rewritten contracts. It will come through the collapse of the myth that the Fed is independent. Once monetary policy is fully political, the fallout will be enormous—for the dollar, for Treasuries, and for gold.

And it’s not happening in isolation. As Washington sinks deeper into debt, the rest of the world sees exactly what’s coming. Central banks are moving to protect themselves. I believe they know debasement is inevitable, and they don’t intend to be left holding the bag. Their response has been clear: abandon paper promises and move back toward gold.

In short, the sixth default won’t be a headline—it will be a bleed-out.

When the dollar is quietly debased and the Fed’s “independence” finally cracks, it will be too late to reposition.

If you’ve read this far, you already sense the window is closing. Do not wait for confirmation from the evening news.

The question now is not if but how this crisis will unfold, and whether you’ll be on the losing end of it.

That’s why I’ve prepared a special report, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… and the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.

Inside, you’ll learn what risks are ahead, what they mean for your wealth and personal freedom, and the practical steps you can take today to protect yourself. Click here to get your free PDF copy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 20:55

Brooklyn Man Accused Of Dumping Boyfriend’s Rotting Body In Trash

A Brooklyn man allegedly tossed his boyfriend’s decomposing body out with the garbage — but the stench was so overpowering that it quickly gave him away, according to the NY Post.

38 year old Christopher Moss was arrested Sunday for concealing a human corpse after police found the remains of his boyfriend, 35 year- old Darrell Montgomery, in a trash bag outside their East 21st Street apartment in Flatbush. Officers had been called to the building after tenants complained of a “putrid stink” seeping through the halls, law enforcement sources said.

The NY Post writes that the body was so badly decomposed that investigators initially believed it had been dismembered. The medical examiner’s office had to remove the remains from the bag for examination, sources said.

Photos: NY Post

No immediate signs of foul play were found, and Moss was initially charged with concealing a corpse and resisting arrest. When officers later tracked him down near Nostrand Avenue and Beverly Road, Moss allegedly headbutted one cop and grabbed for another’s gun, sources said. He now faces additional charges of assault on a police officer, attempted robbery, criminal possession of a weapon, resisting arrest, and obstructing governmental administration.

Neighbors said Moss’s behavior had grown increasingly erratic in the weeks before the grisly discovery.

“[He] has been out front talking to himself,” said fifth-floor resident Sayuri Abundis, 23. “He’s just been saying, ‘Where are you? Open the door!’ over and over again.”

“They were always together but the last two weeks it was only him,” she added. “Before he would get locked out he’d call up to Darrell and ask him to buzz him in and they would be arguing.”

“[Christopher] would scream at him, ‘Wait till I get up there!’” Abundis said. “They were always arguing. It’s always been like that. But the last two weeks he’s been alone and he’s just been talking to himself out loud.”

Neighbor Carl Smith, 62, said he had often seen the couple together until recently. “[Moss] walked around mumbling a lot of s—t before that happened, before they found the body,” Smith said. “He was talking to himself, walking back and forth right out here in front of the building and just walking around the block… I don’t know why he did what he did.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 20:30

Peanut Allergies In Children Have Dropped Significantly: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Allergies to peanuts and other foods dropped significantly after the introduction of new guidelines, according to a study published on Oct. 20.

The authors estimated that for about every 200 infants exposed to food allergens early in life, one child could be prevented from developing a food allergy. AlexandrMusuc/Shutterstock

Just 0.45 percent of young children from 2017 through 2019 had an allergy to peanuts, according to researchers with the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s allergy and immunology division and other institutions. That was down from 0.79 percent from 2012 through 2014.

“Our results support ongoing efforts to encourage early food introduction to prevent food allergy,” Dr. Stanislaw J. Gabryszewski, an attending physician at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and one of the researchers, said in a video presentation that was released alongside the study by the journal Pediatrics.

Food allergies, which develop when a person comes into contact with a protein in food that their immune system identifies as harmful, are the most common cause of severe allergic shock in children. The shock can in rare instances lead to death.

The researchers analyzed diagnosis codes and other information in electronic health records from 48 facilities, including 17 privately owned pediatric offices. They looked at the incidence of allergies among children from Sept. 1, 2012, through Aug. 31, 2014, before new guidelines were introduced; from Sept. 1, 2015 through Aug. 31, 2017, after the introduction; and from Sept. 1, 2017, to Aug. 31, 2019, after the guidelines were updated.

For years, doctors and groups—including the American Academy of Pediatrics, which runs Pediatrics—recommended not giving children peanuts or peanut products early in life. The academy said in 2008 there was no evidence delaying peanuts and other foods prevented allergies.

It was not until after a trial called Learning Early About Peanut Allergy that found early introduction of peanuts reduced the risk of peanut allergy that organizations said, in 2015, that infants at high risk of allergies should consume products such as peanuts and eggs early in life.

In 2017, federal officials broadened that guidance to more children. In 2021, experts said it applied to all kids.

Gabryszewski and co-authors said they looked at records from young children because the peak time of incidence of peanut allergies is 15 months of age, while the peak for any food allergy is 13 months. They also said that because the guidelines and addendums came in 2015 and 2017, it was not possible yet to assess whether they impacted allergies for older children.

The researchers estimated that exposing about 200 infants to a food allergen earlier in life prevents one child from developing an allergy.

They also said they found that within the population they studied, peanuts are now the second most common allergen, down from first. Eggs moved to first from second. Milk remains third.

Limitations of the study include the reliance on diagnosis codes. Funding came from the U.S. government and the Food Allergy Fund, among other institutions. The researchers reported no conflicts of interest.

In a commentary also published by Pediatrics, Dr. Ruchi Gupta of the Center for Food Allergy & Asthma Research at Northwestern University and two co-authors said that the paper provided evidence that efforts to revamp preventing peanut allergies may be starting to pay off.

They said, the data may not be nationally representative because it came from a small subset of U.S. facilities.

“Future analyses should seek to validate these trends in larger, more diverse samples using expanded diagnostic criteria, such as food allergy testing and oral food challenges,” they said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 20:05

Tesla Earnings Preview: Record Deliveries, Margin Pressure And AI In Focus

Tesla is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings results after the market closes today. Wall Street’s focus this quarter is squarely on whether record deliveries and energy deployments will translate into meaningful profit growth amid persistent price pressures and an increasingly competitive EV landscape. Additionally, Robotaxi, AI and robotics will be in focus for investors looking to model the company's future. 

Revenue and EPS Expectations

Analysts expect Tesla to post earnings of $0.52 per share on revenue of $26.27 billion, while the so-called whisper number stands slightly higher at $0.61 per share. According to Bloomberg’s consensus, adjusted EPS is estimated at $0.54, with total revenue of $26.36 billion, gross margins near 17.2%, operating income of $1.65 billion, free cash flow of $1.25 billion, and capital expenditures around $2.84 billion.

If Tesla meets expectations, the company will post its highest quarterly revenue ever—powered primarily by its record vehicle deliveries. Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed it produced 447,450 vehicles and delivered 497,099 during the quarter, the highest in its history. That total included 481,166 deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y and 15,933 deliveries of other models. Tesla also confirmed deployment of 12.5 GWh of energy storage capacity during the period, another record for the company. These figures have solidified expectations for top-line growth, even as margins continue to compress.

On the production side, Tesla built 447,450 vehicles, down 4.8% from a year earlier and just under the consensus of 450,313. Model 3/Y production totaled 435,826, a 1.8% decline but still ahead of forecasts. Production of other models slipped to 11,624, down 13% from the prior quarter.

Despite those records, Wall Street does not expect record profits. Tesla earned $0.72 per share during the same period last year, and consensus estimates now suggest an earnings downtrend driven by ongoing price cuts and cost competition across the global EV market. The company’s earnings per share have fallen steadily since peaking in 2022, and analysts expect full-year 2025 EPS of around $1.75, down from $2.28 in 2024 and $3.12 in 2023.

Auto Focus: EV Credit Pull Forward and Cheaper Model Y

Tesla’s automotive business still dominates its results, accounting for the majority of revenue despite Elon Musk’s frequent characterization of the company as an AI and robotics leader. For now, the automaker’s financial health remains tightly linked to the number of vehicles it delivers, not autonomous driving or humanoid robots. 

Recall, Tesla unveiled a cheaper Model Y today weeks ago with prices starting at $37,990–$39,990, about 15% below the previous base model, as the company works to reverse slowing sales and lost U.S. tax incentives. Elon Musk has long promised a mass-market EV, though he scrapped a $25,000 car plan last year. Still, he argued in July: "The desire to buy the car is very high. (It's) just (that) people don't have enough money in the bank account to buy it. So the more affordable we can make the car, the better."

While Tesla just had a record quarter, global sales are down about 6% this year, and analysts expect U.S. EV sales to fall sharply after the credit’s removal.

What Analysts Are Expecting

Analyst opinions ahead of tonight's report are mixed but focused on several key themes. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard said investors will be watching for “several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts,” including the rollout of Robotaxi programs in Texas and California, ramp-up of lower-cost Model 3/Y variants, FSD adoption in China and Europe, and updates on the Optimus humanoid robot and future Cybercab launch. Cantor maintains a $355 price target, implying roughly 20% downside from current levels.

Goldman Sachs analysts are watching five key areas in tonight’s call: vehicle delivery guidance, automotive profit margins, progress on robotaxis and FSD, growth in the energy business, and fresh details on the Optimus robot. Goldman’s price target is $425 per share with a Neutral rating, expecting Tesla to have delivered about 475,000 vehicles in Q3, slightly below the reported total.

RBC is more bullish, setting a $500 price target based on a “sum-of-the-parts” valuation that assigns increasing weight to Tesla’s AI and robotics divisions. RBC analyst Tom Narayan recently raised his target after management discussions around Optimus production, which the bank believes could represent a $9 trillion total addressable market over time. Morningstar’s Dave Sekera, meanwhile, is looking for updates on Robotaxi timelines and Tesla’s recently launched lower-cost Model 3 and Model Y variants, suggesting that affordability could be critical for reigniting demand.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives continues to frame Tesla’s next chapter as the “AI era,” emphasizing that “the most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here.” Ives believes autonomous driving and robotics could add $1 trillion in value to Tesla’s story in the coming years, positioning the company at the intersection of mobility and intelligence.

Despite the futuristic focus, some are also wary about Tesla’s fundamentals. The company recently recalled nearly 13,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles due to a defect that could cause sudden battery power loss, forcing in-person repairs rather than software fixes. The recall underscores the tension between Tesla’s cutting-edge ambitions and its ongoing manufacturing and reliability challenges.

Musk's $1 Trillion Pay Plan Would Be Helped By A Bullish Report

Also in focus will be Elon Musk’s proposed new pay package, valued at nearly $1 trillion in Tesla stock, and which has ignited opposition from unions, pension funds, and governance watchdogs ahead of a shareholder vote next month. The plan would boost Musk’s voting control to about 25% and extend his leadership for another decade.

Proxy firms ISS and Glass Lewis have urged investors to vote against it, while supporters on Tesla’s board say it’s needed to retain Musk’s focus and vision. The vote will test shareholder confidence in Musk’s leadership as Tesla’s growth slows and scrutiny over governance intensifies.

In the short term, analysts and investors alike expect a bullish tone from management on the call. Tesla strategically delayed its annual shareholders meeting to early November, likely to coincide with this strong quarter ahead of key votes on Musk’s compensation and board seats. With tax credit expirations pulling demand into Q3, Tesla has good reason to spotlight its record quarter before potentially facing a tougher demand environment in coming periods.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 14:40

All That Is Gold Does Not Glitter

By Michael Every of Rabobank

With the BoE Governor warning about pre-2008 bubble conditions in private credit; UK public-sector borrowing coming in higher than thought; Canadian CPI hotter; yet gold -6% Tuesday, its biggest sell-off since 2013, with silver -8.7%, and both -2% again this morning; and Bitcoin soaring as gold fell, then dropping in tandem, there is a lot going on. And I don’t mean GOP leaders are eyeing a new stopgap spending measure to end the government shutdown. Rather:

"ECB's Lane flags dollar risk for banks amid tariff turmoil’ as “Eurozone banks may come under pressure if dollar funding were to dry up,” as their dollars accounted for 7 - 28% of liabilities and 10% of assets in Q2, all reliant on borrowing from US banks. Reuters notes central banks are toying with the idea of pooling their dollar reserves to backstop banks in case the Fed were to withdraw its emergency swap lines. But any such cooperation would be politically difficult and insufficient given the multi-trillion-dollar size of the international market for dollar loans. This is a point of US economic statecraft strength flagged here repeatedly: more so if the Fed is politicised.

"Bessent’s Plan Runs Short on Time to Line Up Argentina Financing’ (Bloomberg) where the market doubts he can find the second $20bn of his $40bn package from the private sector before Sunday’s key election as ‘The US Is Trying to Drive a Wedge Between Argentina and China’ (WSJ).

"China eyes 3-way currency swap with Japan and South Korea amid Trump’s tariff war’ (SCMP) as “Beijing seeks to strengthen regional financial ties and boost yuan use as US trade pressures weigh on East Asian economies”. This would be the same Japan and China rearming against threats from each other, and the South Korea focused on North Korea that is now friendly with China again? Moreover, Blomberg says Ethiopia is in talks with China to convert its dollar loans to CNY, which follows the lead set by Kenya: lower rates – and different pressure points.

Politico underlines ‘Greenland could become the biggest car crash in Atlantic relations’, as “If the US President presses ahead… others can and will follow elsewhere.” Yet what could Europe do given the situation Lane just underlined and its need for US exports, LNG, tech, and arms?

Plans for a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest have been shelved, as Trump said it would be a “waste of time’’ given Russia is clinging to territorial ambitions that make a peace deal with Ukraine impossible. So, more war, with more tit-for-tat blows to Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure: and elsewhere? Blasts just hit both Romanian and Hungarian oil refineries tied to Russia. This time last week I was telling clients to prepare for the fat tail risks of deliberate targeting of upstream commodity supply chains as part of a Grand Macro Strategy to strengthen one bloc over another.

Trump again said Modi agreed to ease Russian energy buys, but scepticism remains there; and that’s as India reestablished relations with the Taliban as Afghanistan fights Pakistan.

As Trump threatened Hamas again, VP Vance is “optimistic” the Gaza peace deal will hold, and said the US won’t force Israel to host foreign troops, while US Special Envoy Kushner stated Israel and Hamas are “transitioning to a peacetime posture.” Perhaps: but note the Saudi Crown Prince is expected to visit Trump at the White House on November 18, which flags something is afoot.

The UK Foreign Office dismissed as “nonsense” claims that Mauritius was in discussions with China over selling it one of the Chagos Islands for $10bn, which the UK is handing over shortly alongside a £30bn bill to retain the century lease on its critical airbases there. The FO stated foreign forces are prohibited from building bases in the archipelago as part of the treaty: and treaties are always fully complied with is obviously the UK view as the global system crumbles.

"Colombia's president embraces war of words with Trump’ (AFP), saying “President Trump doesn't like us being out of his control… they want a coup against me." We still wait to see what the new, “substantial” US tariffs on Colombia will look like.

"Trump Sees Successful Xi Meeting, But Allows It Might Not Happen" (Bloomberg), again underlining 155% tariffs are going live from 1 November if he doesn’t get the deal he wants.

"How US-Australia rare earth deal aims to loosen China’s grip on critical minerals market’ (SCMP), as ‘China fires warning at Australia over ‘bloc confrontation’’ (Australian) for doing so.

The EU is to stockpile critical minerals amid supply chain threats. From whom, when they aren’t easily available right now? That’s as the ‘Dutch seek solution to stand-off with China over chipmaker Nexperia, while carmakers fret’ as ‘VW says production pauses planned, denies chip crunch as reason’ (Reuters). If chips aren’t available soon then that correlation will be obvious.

"South Korea Senior Officials to Visit US Again for Tariff Talks’ (Bloomberg) as Seoul said it wants to produce more of its own weapons – who doesn’t? And with whose rare earths?

Transcending all of the areas above, the FT reports ‘US army taps private equity groups to help fund $150bn revamp.’ On one hand: “This special military operation was brought to you by Snickersnacks.” On the other, as @michaeljmcnair notes, the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) and International Development Finance Corp (DFC) could be mutating into a private equity-style sovereign wealth fund vehicle. Previously, OSC and DFC credit/equity investments were scored at face value, but a new accounting rule means only the net present value of the expected subsidy is charged to the federal budget so a defence deal may run:

1. DFC/OSC puts in 10% equity or a thin guarantee covered by Treasury debt;
2. Crowd in SWFs/PE funds for the 90% - a lot of this has been pledged already via tariff threats;
3. The OBBBA lets the DFC retain and redeploy proceeds/dividends, not return them to Treasury.

In short, this would be what I call financial ‘fartcraft’ to transform the US for warcraft via fiat not gold, even if gold -- and Bitcoin -- may play a role in the process later. That still needs the hard physical supply side, which is where deals with Australia and threats to LatAm come in – and then all the market disruption and inflation (and deflation) that comes with it.

All that is gold does not glitter; Not all those who wander are lost

Meanwhile, the FT op-ed bewails ‘The hard task of exiting the populist trap’, flagging Argentina as a bad role model, which the US is following: fair comment, perhaps. Yet a French mega opinion poll in Le Monde notes “France's democratic crisis is showing increasingly alarming symptoms.” Indeed, the numbers are shocking:

Of those surveyed, 96% feel dissatisfied or angry about the state of the country; 90% believe it is in decline; 81% don’t think democracy is working for them; 66% think most politicians are corrupt; 71% think their living standards are getting worse; 57% have trouble making ends meet; 85% think France ‘needs a real leader to restore order’; and 63% say they don’t ‘feel at home any more’. That sounds like FT-friendly technocratic centrism leads to populism, as was flagged way back in 2019’s ‘The Age of Rage’ – and this survey was taken before France’s crown jewels were humiliatingly stolen from the Louvre in minutes, with no official resignations in response yet.

FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf, we are *still* waiting for your promised blueprint for a global economic system that works sustainably and inclusively for everyone: don’t keep us in suspense any longer!

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 14:25

A Dip Below $100k "Seems Inevitable", But StanChart Sees Bitcoin At $200k By Year-End

The 10 October US-China trade war fear-driven selloff put paid to any further push higher in crypto, according to Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick, and the question now is how far does Bitcoin need to fall before finding a base?

On that Kendrick is now thinking a dip below 100k seems inevitable, although the dump may be short-lived. 

To determine when the turn higher comes, which I think it will, I am watching:

Gold v Bitcoin flows.

Yesterday’s sharp gold selloff coincided with a strong intra-day bounce in Bitcoin. This was presumably a sell gold, buy Bitcoin flow.

Medium term I expect more of this, and further such evidence would be constructive for a Bitcoin low being formed.

Gold has been outperforming Bitcoin a lot recently (as chart), something which has perhaps started to turn

Fig – Bitcoin/gold ratio

Liquidity type measures.

There are several of these which have mostly been getting tighter. The question for me is when does the Fed see them as “tight” and react by either acknowledging said measures or stopping QT...

Fig – USD Liquidity proxy

On a side note, liquidity on a global basis signals considerable upside for crypto...

Technicals

Although I am not a technical analyst I note that the 50 week moving average in Bitcoin has held since early 2023 (when Bitcoin was 25k and I forecast it to reach 100k by end-2024)

Stay nimble, Kendrick warns, and be ready to buy the dip below 100k if it comes. 

It may be the last time Bitcoin is EVER below 100k.

As CoinTelegraph's Zoltan Vardai notes, despite the volatility, he remains confident that Bitcoin will rebound as markets stabilize.

“My official forecast is $200,000 by the end of the year,” he told Cointelegraph during an exclusive interview at the 2025 European Blockchain Convention in Barcelona. 

Despite the “Trump noise around tariffs,” Kendrick said he still sees a price rise “well north of $150,000” in the bear case for the end of the year, assuming the US Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates to meet market expectations.

Kendrick said the aftermath of the liquidation event may take several weeks to settle, but investors may soon view the sell-off as another accumulation phase.

This could ultimately become the next significant “buying opportunity” for investors, he said.

Kendrick predicted continued inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price momentum for the rest of the year.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sharp rebound in flows this week after several days of politically driven outflows.

And sure enough, on Tuesday, the funds saw $477 million in net positive inflows, according to Farside Investors, breaking a four-day losing streak.

The current dip will prepare us for another leg up, “mostly on the back of the ETF inflows,” Kendrick said, adding:

“There’s no reason for them to stop. The US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts. All that story is playing out already in gold.”

Gold’s recent all-time highs will also translate into more momentum for Bitcoin, as its safe-haven asset narrative reemerges, he added.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 13:35

Impressive 20Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand, First Stop Through In Months

With market risk mostly off, especially among high beta momentum stocks, bonds have again emerged as a flight to safety and this was certainly on display during today's auction of 20Y paper.

The reopening of 19 Year, 10 Month paper (cusip UN6) was the week's only coupon auction, and was issued flawlessly and without a glitch amid solid -mostly foreign - demand; the high yield of 4.506% was up notably from last month's 3.953% but more importantly, stopped through the When Issued 4.518 by 1.2bps, the first stop since July and followed two weak, tailing auctions.

The bid to cover surged to 63.6% from 56.4%, but was still slightly below the six-auction average of 67.3%. And with Directs taking down 26.3% (just above the recent average of 23.1%), Dealers were left with 10.0%, which was also in line with the average of 9.6%.

Overall, this was an impressive auction, although to be expected in a day when suddenly everything in stock world is coming unhinged, and not surprisingly yields slumped back toward session lows.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 13:24

The "Triumph Of Big Government" Created The Current Sovereign Debt Crisis

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

A few years ago, The Economist published an issue called “The Triumph of Big Government,” highlighting the rise of government intervention as the main driver of economic recovery and growth. The years of budget and deficit control were over. Mainstream economists hailed the decisive action of governments in developed nations, committed to spending to boost growth and abandoning the old “austerity” principles.

Only a few years later, The Economist publishes an issue titled “The Coming Debt Emergency,” mentioning the enormous deficit and debt problems in France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States.

What happened? How can long-term bond yields rise when central banks are cutting rates? How did government debt lose its place as a reserve asset? Easy. Developed economies’ governments of all colours, from Biden and Sunak to Macron and Ishiba, bought the MMT fallacy that “deficits do not matter” and “sovereign nations can issue all the debt they need without risk.” Virtually all international bodies hailed statism as the global solution. However, in 2022, global central banks and investors started abandoning sovereign debt as a reserve asset and decided to add gold.

Developed nations have surpassed the three limits of indebtedness: the economic, fiscal and inflationary limitations. When more public debt creates lower economic and productivity growth, the economic limit has been surpassed. When interest expenses and deficits continue to rise despite rate cuts and higher taxes, the fiscal limit collapses. Additionally, when governments become addicted to issuing more debt in any part of the cycle, with diminishing investor demand, inflation becomes persistent.

No one really believes developed nations’ governments will control their public finances, and constant tax hikes and excessive regulation have choked the productive economy.

Employment is showing the negative effect of the “triumph of big government”. Bloating government spending may disguise GDP but does not create jobs.

Even as government spending continues to artificially elevate headline GDP figures, global labour markets are showing weakness. According to S&P Global’s October 2025 PMI Bulletin, the global economy continues to show headline growth, but employment growth has stalled, and productivity improvement has declined sharply.

S&P Global’s global composite PMI stood at 52.4 in September, its lowest level in three months. Companies are attempting to manage high taxation and regulatory burdens, resulting in stagnant employment levels and output growth. Employment was broadly flat across both manufacturing and services sectors, a sign of declining confidence and cost-saving across advanced economies.

The eurozone is a key example of how big government destroys employment growth, real wage improvements and investment. The modest improvement in activity comes with a decline of hiring and investment. The United Kingdom’s tax hikes and net zero policies have decimated the industry and obliterated employment growth.

These evident deteriorating employment trends come in a period of artificial GDP growth. Government spending is now one of the leading factors in “economic growth” in France, the UK, Germany, Japan and other major economies. Excluding the government spending increase, most of these economies are in recession. S&P Global’s October 2025 Global Economic Outlook signals that output growth is increasingly supported by governments’ fiscal irresponsibility rather than private sector dynamism. The report states, diplomatically, that “looser fiscal stances in the US and Germany are growth-supportive” but warns that the “fragility of sovereign debt markets in many of the world’s largest economies remains a key source of risk.” State-driven “investment” programmes in the eurozone and the UK have partially offset weak private demand. An enormous trail of debt remains, leading to further tax increases.

Government spending and persistent inflation bloat nominal growth, while real economic productivity and private labour opportunities deteriorate. The erosion of value-added generated by the productive economy is alarming. Considering that major governments are borrowing heavily to fund what they call stimulus measures, and they refuse to reduce current spending, GDP figures are being inflated by debt-financed public sector demand.

This labour market stagnation highlighted by S&P Global coincides with a significant slowdown in real wage growth. Although headline CPI has eased in most advanced economies, real inflationary pressures are elevated and continue to erode disposable income even using official CPI figures. This situation leads to weak real consumption and worsening demographic trends.

Big government means low growth, high taxes, weak real wages, and a persistent productivity drag. Malinvestment and excessive government intervention are now the norm in major economies. SP Global explains that “the most interest rate–sensitive sectors, such as manufacturing and construction, account for a smaller share of economic activity in advanced economies than in the past.” However, the problem is not just interest rates but rising taxes and insurmountable regulations that dampen activity in high multiplier sectors.

The 2030 agenda, along with the so-called green regulations and net zero policies, has resulted in capital misallocation and distortions in policy. Thus, productivity gains are increasingly limited to digital and financial sectors.

Fiscal expansion now drives most of the headline economic activity in developed nations with negative side effects everywhere. The debt service burden is crowding out productive expenditure, high taxes limit investment and hiring, and regulation makes the economy stagnant. As sovereign yields climb, countries like France and the UK are already facing “vicious cycles” of slower growth and higher financing costs.

The reader may think that this is the result of incompetence and malinvestment, and if governments spent wisely and invested in productive activities, all would be fine. No. Central planning never works, even if there are some allegedly beneficial intentions. Keynesianism and social democracy always fail. Why are governments not worried? Because they can raise your taxes and present themselves as the solution.

The solution is simple. Less government means more growth.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 13:00

Another 'Cockroach': Subprime Auto-Lender PrimaLend Enters Bankruptcy

Another cockroach?

PrimaLend Capital Partners, which provides financing to auto dealerships that cater to subprime borrowers, filed for bankruptcy after months of negotiations with creditors following missed interest payments on its debt. 

Its products include financing for receivables, real estate and automobile inventory, according to its website.

This follows the sudden collapse of Tricolor (subprime auto lender) and First Brands (after-market auto parts supplier) with PrimaLend listing estimated assets and liabilities below $500 million each, according to court documents it filed in the Northern District of Texas. 

In a press release, PrimaLend said it was pursuing a sale of the business in bankruptcy court and would continue to fund and service loans to its own borrowers.

PrimaLend finances “buy here, pay here” auto dealerships, which serve low-income borrowers.

“No debt is being called due or accelerated as a result of this process,” PrimaLend’s chief executive officer, Mark Jensen, said in the release.

“We deeply value our dealer-borrower relationships and look forward to continuing to serve the buy-here-pay-here industry as we move forward.”

The company has received a commitment for bankruptcy financing to help fund operations in Chapter 11 from existing lenders, according to the release.

None of this should come as a surprise since we have seen auto loan delinquencies soar and now repossession breaking records.

Building a business on the back of lending to illegal immigrants to enable the purchase of a rapidly devaluing asset - brilliant!

There are many more dominoes left to fall (or cockroaches left to discover) in this space - the question is, will there be contagion? Even Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey chimed in this week, warning that the First Brands (and similar Tricolor) collapses could signal "much bigger financial problems" ahead.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 12:40

As Auto Loan Delinquencies Soar, Repossessions On Track To Break Record

On Friday we noted that auto loan delinquencies among low-tier consumers have surged 50% since 2010, as new vehicle prices have spiked over 25% since 2019 and 20% of borrowers forking over at least $1,000 per month for their depreciating asset (at 9% APR, no less). 

Via CBS / Vantagescore

And so it makes perfect sense that with over 100 million auto loans in America, the number of cars being repossessed is approaching records.

According to data from the Recovery Database Network (RDN), there have been over 7.5 million repossession assignments in the United States so far this year - meaning, authorizations given to an agency to recover a vehicle on behalf of a lender. This figure is on track to exceed 10.5 million by the end of the year. Of note, an assignment =/= a repossession, as repo men aren't always successful.

Yet despite recovery ratios having fallen in recent years, over three million cars could be repossessed this year, a level not seen since 2009. 

Paycheck to Paycheck

According to a Goldman survey published earlier this month, around 40% of Americans under the age of boomer report living paycheck to paycheck as inflation continues to erode purchasing power.

For those living primarily paycheck to paycheck, the top issue cited by 87% of those asked was "Too many monthly financial expenses" - like an auto loan. In second place is financial hardship (81%) such as home repairs, followed by credit card debt (77%). 

Meanwhile, Fitch reports that 6.43 percent of subprime auto loans were at least 60 days past due in August, while Cox Automotive reported last week that the average transaction price for a new vehicle hit $50,000 last month - the highest level eva. 

"Auto finance is at a breaking point, as Americans owe over $1.66 trillion in auto debt. Delinquencies, defaults, and repossessions have shot up in recent years and look alarmingly similar to trends that were apparent before the Great Recession," wrote the Consumer Federation of America, a nonprofit advocacy group.

"Cars are more expensive than ever, due in part to economic factors, but also due to the fraught experience of buying and financing a car. Dealers and lenders have long engaged in deceptive and predatory practices that jack up prices for car buyers in order to line their pockets."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 11:30

'Worst Of The Worst' Illegal Immigrants Arrested In Memphis, DHS Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have arrested multiple “worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens” in Memphis, Tennessee, as part of President Donald Trump’s push to crack down on violent crime and make the city safe, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in an Oct. 20 statement.

FBI agents patrol Beale Street in Memphis, Tenn., on Oct. 5, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

Arrested individuals include alleged pedophiles, gang members, drug traffickers, domestic abusers, and rapists, according to the agency.

Among the arrested are a Honduran national who allegedly committed “the sex offense of fondling a child,” an alleged Mexican Sureno 13 gang member with convictions of assault and possession of narcotic equipment, and a Guatemalan national who allegedly committed domestic violence.

“Memphis has suffered from historic levels of violent crime including a murder rate that is four times higher than Mexico City. No American should be afraid to walk down the streets in their own neighborhoods,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.

“In Memphis, DHS law enforcement is working hand in glove with Attorney General [Pam] Bondi to enhance public safety, fight crime, and provide much-needed support to our law enforcement partners at the local, state, and federal level. The Trump administration WILL make America safe again.”

Trump issued a presidential memorandum on Sept. 15 to establish a Memphis Safe Task Force and make National Guard personnel available to support public safety and law enforcement operations in Memphis.

“The city of Memphis, Tennessee, is suffering from tremendous levels of violent crime that have overwhelmed its local government’s ability to respond effectively,” the memorandum states.

The National Guard started patrolling in Memphis on Oct. 10.

Memphis has the highest violent crime rate among U.S. cities at 2,501 per 100,000 residents in 2024, much higher than second-ranked Detroit at 1,781 violent crimes. Memphis’ violent crime rate last year was around six times higher than the national average.

Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in Tennessee has faced opposition. On Oct. 17, a group of state officials filed a lawsuit against Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee and other officials.

Tennessee’s Constitution limits the governor’s ability to use the state’s National Guard, stating that such troops shall only be called into service in the case of rebellion or invasion, the lawsuit said.

The state’s General Assembly must declare that, by law, such deployment is necessary for public safety, it said, adding that state statutes forbid the governor from unilaterally using the military for civilian law enforcement.

“Defendants have trampled on Tennessee law by unilaterally deploying Tennessee National Guard members in Memphis as a domestic police force. On October 10, 2025, military police in fatigues descended upon Memphis, in a deployment of the Tennessee National Guard authorized by Governor Bill Lee,” state officials said in the complaint.

“Governor Lee acted at the request of President Donald Trump, but not at the request of any Memphis or Shelby County officials. He also had no approval or authorization from the Tennessee General Assembly. The deployment is patently unlawful.”

The lawsuit asked the court to issue a temporary injunction requiring the defendants to cease the deployment of National Guard personnel in Memphis for civilian law enforcement purposes.

In a Sept. 13 post on X, Memphis Mayor Paul Young said that the governor and the president have the authority to deploy the National Guard to his city.

He shared a clip from an MSNBC interview in which the host asked what the National Guard could do for his city.

“We do have issues with blight in our community, and if there is a way for them to help support our team on that front, we have a deficit of about 300 to 500 officers that we need,” Young said.

In his X post, Young added that he never asked for such a deployment and does not believe this is the path to bring down crime in Memphis.

“However, the decision has been made. As your Mayor, my commitment is to work strategically to ensure this happens in a way that truly benefits and strengthens our community,” he said in a follow-up post.

Trump and FBI Director Kash Patel said during an Oct. 15 press conference that the administration’s crime crackdown has resulted in more than 28,000 violent criminals being arrested over the past seven months.

“We’re going to go into other cities that we’re not talking about, purposely,” Trump said. “We’re going to have a surge of strong, good people, patriots, and they’re going to go in, [they’re going to] straighten it all out.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 11:10

Stocks Extend Momentum Meltdown As Trump Admin Mulls Massive China Export Ban

Update (1235ET): US equity markets were already down notably, dragged down by momentum weakness, when Reuters reported the Trump admin is mulling broad software curbs on chip exports to China.

The United States has ordered a broad swathe of companies to stop shipping goods to China without a license and revoked licenses already granted to certain suppliers, said three people familiar with the matter.

The new restrictions - which are likely to escalate tensions with Beijing - appear aimed at choke points to prevent China from getting products necessary for key sectors, one of the people said.

Products affected include design software and chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipment, the people said.

The Commerce Department said it is reviewing exports of strategic significance to China, while noting "in some cases, Commerce has suspended existing export licenses or imposed additional license requirements while the review is pending."

This sparked an immediate drop in all the US Majors...

*  *  *

As we detailed last night, the market is experiencing a strong degrossing in recent narrative themes, and that is most evident in Goldman's high-beta momentum basket which is getting slammed again this morning...

It appears that momo meltdown is finally bleeding over into the broad markets...

The outperformance from the momentum factor this year (pure factor up 7% our baskets up between 15 and 35% depending on the pair) has been driven by the long leg...

...which could be at risk of giving up more of the gains as clients protect performance going into year end...

The last six days have seen momentum longs dumped and momentum shorts bid (until today), hitting the overall momentum market with a double whammy.

The drawdown in Momentum may be at risk to continue as November through January is the worst 3 months period for Momentum...

For a tactical market hedge Goldman likes limited loss on their X7 (Top 500 Ex Mag 7) index, given hedges are outright cheaper than S&P 500 hedges.

More here from the rest of Goldman's Sales & Trading team available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 10:56

Senate GOP Mull Filibuster Reform To End Shutdown

As Democrats continue to dig in their heels over Obamacare, Senate Republicans are now considering changing the filibuster's rules to end the shutdown. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune , June 24, 2025. (Shawn Thew/EPA/Shutterstock)

"Nobody talked about filibuster two weeks ago. Now that we see that the Democrats are just not going to agree to anything, then that’s probably a viable option," Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) told The Hill. "I don’t know the answer to this. I don’t think anybody does because they’re not going to give; we’re not going to give. So it’s going to be a stalemate, and the loser is going to be the American people."

Tuberville notably defended keeping the filibuster after Republicans won control of the Senate in last year's election, while other GOP senators are predicting that President Trump will start pressuring Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to change the Senate rules if the shutdown continues into next month - a move Thune has explicitly said he opposes. 

"I think the pressure from the White House will become pretty enormous," one GOP senator told the outlet. "We’re reaching a point here where the SNAP benefits start going down, the military - pretty soon [the president] isn’t going to have enough money to pay them. We’re going to reach a point where people are literally not able to buy food," the senator continued, referring to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) winding down, along with the military eventually going without pay.

"We’re going to reach a point where people are literally not able to buy food," the senator continued, adding "There’s going to come a breaking point. Filibuster reform means all kinds of different things. It could be a talking filibuster." 

"The longer this goes on and the more intransigent the Democrats are, I think they’re inviting a conversation about, ‘Are there steps we can take here?"

"If this goes past Nov. 1, I think the mood is really going to turn in the country in a big way," they continued. 

According to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Republicans want to preserve the 60-vote threshold for passing legislation, but admitted they were looking into the "possibility" of a carve-out to end the shutdown.

"It’s something Republicans don’t want to do," he said. 

That said, "There’s a certain comity here, there’s a way of getting along. That’s just been busted by the Democrats, time and time again," Johnson argued - accusing Democrats of trying to undermine Trump. 

Thune, as noted, is opposed to weakening or eliminating the filibuster - something he vowed to maintain when he ran against Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) for majority leader in November - telling reporters that getting rid of the rule to end the shutdown would be a "bad idea." 

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said she's opposed to changing the rule, but will review any plan to reopen the government even if it includes reforms. 

Asked about this 'nuclear option,' Collins replied: "I know that that is being discussed," adding "I am a strong supporter of the filibuster, but obviously I’ll look at any plan that anyone puts out in order to reopen government."

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-O) said all “options” need to be on the table if the shutdown drags on for weeks longer.

He noted Senate Republicans changed the Senate rules to confirm lower-level executive branch nominees en bloc after Democrats slow-walked more than 140 of Trump’s nominees, refusing to confirm a single civilian nominee by voice vote or unanimous consent to save time.

“I’d just say to the Democrats, ‘Listen, you saw what happened when we had to change the nominations rule to overcome their unprecedented obstruction,’” he said.

“At a certain point, the pain becomes so severe on working people that all options may be on the table,” he warned. “At a certain point, people have to be able to go to the VA and get health care. They have to. People have to be able to get their food stamp benefits. They won’t be able to live.” -The Hill

Meanwhile, the Senate is slated to vote today on the House-passed funding bill. The vote is likely to fail (again), while House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will once again each host pressers to call each other unreasonable. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 10:45

"They've Cut It Way Back" - WTI Holds Gains After Trump Comments On Indian Imports, Record US Crude Production

Oil prices are higher this morning (extending yesterday's gains) on a report the US and India are nearing a trade deal that could see the South Asian nation gradually reduce imports of Russian crude, which would boost demand for alternative supplies.

President Trump said on Oct. 21 that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to scale back India’s imports of Russian oil in response to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

As Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he spoke with Modi about the matter during a phone call on Tuesday. He said that their conversation primarily focused on U.S.–India trade relations.

“We just have a good relationship, and he’s not going to buy much oil from Russia. He wants to see that war end as much as I do. He wants to see the war end with Russia–Ukraine,” he said.

“And, as you know, they’re not going to be buying too much oil. So they’ve cut it way back and they’re continuing to cut it way back.”

Modi took to social media to thank Trump for his warm Diwali greetings and the phone call, but provided no details about what was discussed during their call.

“On this festival of lights, may our two great democracies continue to illuminate the world with hope and stand united against terrorism in all its forms,” Modi stated in a post on X.

Trump said last week that he had received assurances from Modi that India would stop purchasing oil from Russia.

“That’s a big stop,” he told reporters in the Oval Office during a press conference on Oct. 15.

“Now [I’ve] got to get China to do the same thing.”

Experts at the Observer Research Foundation think tank estimate that India accounts for more than one-third of Russia’s crude exports, behind China’s 50 percent share.

Meanwhile, European Union leaders are expected to greenlight a 19th Russia sanctions package at a summit on Thursday, after Slovakia dropped its objections.

Crude inventories fell (and gasoline stocks dipped) according to a report from API overnight. Traders will now focus on the official data

API

• Crude -2.98mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline -236k

• Distillates -974k

DOE

• Crude -961k

• Cushing -770k

• Gasoline -2.147mm

• Distillates -1.479mm

Official inventory data confirmed the trend of API overnight with across the board drawdowns (though smaller than API). This is the 3rd straight week of drawdowns for products and at the Cushing hub...

Source: Bloomberg

As we detailed yesterday, the Trump administration announced plans to buy 1 million barrels of crude to add to the SPR. As the chart below shows, that's not exactly 'unprecedented' as weekly additions have been around 500k barrels all year. The 819k barrel addition last week was not quite enough to offset the961k barrel decline from DOE...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production hovered near record highs (as the rig count started to decline again)...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains for now, back above $58.50...

Bloomberg notes that oil still remains on track for a third monthly loss as signs of a global surplus put downward pressure on prices, though that’s provided an opportunity for the Trump administration to buy crude for strategic reserves.

“Traders are beginning to question the prevailing supply-glut narrative, as movements in the Brent and WTI forward curves remain far from levels that would typically reflect such an imbalance,” according to Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank AS.

The premium that front-month Brent futures command over the next month’s contract, known as the prompt spread, has narrowed over the past few months but still signals tight short-term supplies in a price structure known as backwardation. That’s also true for West Texas Intermediate crude.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 10:36

Tylenol Manufacturer Resists Proposed Label Changes

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Kenvue Brands LLC, the manufacturer of Tylenol, sent a letter to the Food and Drug Administration on Oct. 17, pushing back against demands to modify the medication’s label to show more safety warnings.

Tylenol lines the shelves of a store in Brandon, Miss.., on Sept. 24, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

On Sept. 22, federal officials said that Tylenol use during pregnancy is likely associated with autism and that pregnant women should not take the drug unless they have severe fevers. The FDA sent a letter to doctors on Sept. 22, notifying them that using the drug during pregnancy “may be associated with an increased risk of neurological conditions.”

The same day, nonprofit group Informed Consent Action Network submitted a citizen petition to FDA Commissioner Martin Makary regarding safety-related labeling changes for drug products containing acetaminophen during pregnancy. Tylenol is one of the brand names for acetaminophen.

The petition asked for labels on these drugs to be revised to reflect potential risks that frequent prenatal use of acetaminophen has on the neurodevelopment of fetuses, “including an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder (‘ASD’) and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (‘ADHD’).”

In its Oct. 17 letter to the FDA, Kenvue stated that the label change requests were “unsupported by the scientific evidence and legally and procedurally improper.”

The company has continuously evaluated the science on the use of acetaminophen during pregnancy and on neurodevelopmental disorders for over a decade, the letter said. Yet, Kenvue has “found no causal association,” it said.

“The expansive scientific evidence developed over many years does not support a causal link, as confirmed in the Food and Drug Administration’s (‘FDA’) own public statements and analyses,” the company said.

According to an Aug. 14 update on acetaminophen published by the FDA, the agency has “not found clear evidence” that the appropriate use of the drug during pregnancy would result in harms such as negative neurobehavioral or developmental outcomes among children.

However, the FDA recommended that pregnant women consult with a health care professional before using any drugs, including acetaminophen.

Kenvue said that adding warning language to labels could result in pregnant women getting discouraged from seeking medically appropriate treatment for pain and fever.

According to the Tylenol website, the drug’s label already contains a warning: “If pregnant or breast-feeding, talk to your healthcare professional before use.”

Tylenol and Autism

In the Sept. 22 letter sent to doctors, the FDA said that “an association between acetaminophen and autism has been described in many studies.” However, “a causal relationship has not been established and there are contrary studies in the scientific literature,” it said.

During a news briefing that day, Makary said that “we now have data we cannot ignore.”

A 2019 paper published in “JAMA Psychiatry” found evidence that babies exposed to the drug while in the womb had a significantly higher risk of developing ADHD or autism.

However, a 2024 analysis of almost 2.5 million children from Sweden found no link between autism and fetal exposure to acetaminophen.

Back in March 2017, Tylenol said in a post on X, “We actually don’t recommend using any of our products while pregnant.”

Kenvue’s Oct. 17 letter to the FDA criticized comments made by the Trump administration during a Sept. 22 press conference.

“Taking Tylenol is not good,” Trump said while referring to the FDA’s Sept. 22 notice to doctors.

“For this reason, they are strongly recommending that women limit Tylenol use during pregnancy unless medically necessary. That’s, for instance, in cases of extremely high fever, that you feel you can’t tough it out, you can’t do it. So ideally, you don’t take it at all.”

Kenvue said that the comments made during the press conference, attended by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other officials, “diverged from FDA’s long-established approach to acetaminophen use during pregnancy.”

The announcement “included repeated incorrect statements about the well-established safety profile of acetaminophen, in general, and Tylenol, in particular, including statements implying a causal association between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and ASD,” the letter stated.

On Sept. 22, the FDA announced it had initiated the process for making label changes to acetaminophen drugs such as Tylenol.

“The FDA is taking action to make parents and doctors aware of a considerable body of evidence about potential risks associated with acetaminophen,” Makary said.

“Even with this body of evidence, the choice still belongs with parents. The precautionary principle may lead many to avoid using acetaminophen during pregnancy, especially since most low-grade fevers don’t require treatment. It remains reasonable, however, for pregnant women to use acetaminophen in certain scenarios.”

One in 31 American children is estimated to have autism, according to an April 15 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Studies and Recommendations

An Aug. 14 study published in the journal “Environmental Health” looked at 46 studies that examined links between prenatal acetaminophen exposure and neurodevelopmental disorders or related symptoms among offspring.

Out of the 46 studies, 27 reported positive associations with “significant links” to neurodevelopmental disorders, it said, adding that higher-quality studies were likely to show such associations.

“Appropriate and immediate steps should be taken to advise pregnant women to limit acetaminophen consumption to protect their offspring’s neurodevelopment,” the study said, adding that more than 50 percent of pregnant women globally are estimated to use acetaminophen.

However, a September advisory issued by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists said that acetaminophen remains the “analgesic and antipyretic of choice during pregnancy.”

The group said current evidence “does not support a causal link” between prenatal acetaminophen use and neurodevelopmental disorders.

“Clinicians should continue to recommend its judicious use, provide evidence-based counseling, and reassure patients that current data do not support a causal link to neurodevelopmental disorders,” the group recommended.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 10:00