Individual Economists

BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in February

Calculated Risk -

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
emphasis added
The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for February; the employment report this Friday will be for March.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in February to 7.57 million from 7.76 million in January.
The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Trump Dials Back Putin Criticism, Renews Attacks On Zelensky For Stalling Minerals Deal

Zero Hedge -

Trump Dials Back Putin Criticism, Renews Attacks On Zelensky For Stalling Minerals Deal

It was only on Sunday that President Trump declared he's "very angry" at Russian President Putin, statements which featured the threat of secondary tariffs on Moscow, but now the US leader is already dialing back this criticism, Bloomberg observes.

Instead he's once again focused his ire on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, warning of "big problems" if he doesn't sign the controversial minerals agreement and tries to renegotiate. 

"I see he’s trying to back out of the rare earth deal. And if he does that, he’s got some problems. Big, big problems," Trump earlier told reporters aboard Air Force One. "We made a deal on rare earth and now he’s saying, ‘well, you know, I want to renegotiate the deal.’"

AFP/Getty Images

"He wants to be a member of NATO. Well, he was never going to be a member of NATO. He understands that. So if he’s looking to renegotiate the deal, he’s got big problems," Trump said.

Zelensky has signaled that Ukraine is positive about the deal but has complained that its conditions are "constantly changing".

Trump has still kept up some pressure on Putin, however, saying Monday of the Russian leader, "I want to make sure that he follows through, and I think he will." He continued in Monday remarks from the Oval, "I don’t want to go secondary tariffs on his oil, but I think, you know, something I would do if I thought he wasn’t doing the job."

All of the weekend criticisms of Putin appeared to arise from the Russian president's comments late last week declaring that Zelensky's 'illegitimacy' could be fixed by a UN transition process guiding Ukraine to new elections. Only then would Moscow negotiate an end the war, Putin stipulated.

"He’s supposed to be making a deal with him, whether you like him or don’t like him," Trump told reporters Sunday, referring to Putin. "So I wasn’t happy with that. But I think he’s going to be good."

But again, he reserved blunter criticism for US ally Zelensky: "I heard that they’re now saying, well, I’ll only do that deal if we get into NATO or something to that effect," Trump had said.

Bloomberg has concluded the following of this latest back-and-forth:

The result is a geopolitical whiplash on the eve of Trump’s global tariff announcement on April 2 and shows US impatience with the process of securing a temporary truce between Russia and Ukraine more than three years after Putin’s invasion of its neighbor. 

Trump had vowed he would end the war within 24 hours of taking office but has found Russia to be a tough negotiator and able to wrest concessions from the US by exploiting Trump’s desire to get a deal done quickly. On Sunday, Trump told NBC he was “pissed off” at Putin. 

Of course, this is also due to Russian forces rolling up several villages and towns on the battlefield in Ukraine's east and south just this week alone. Putin has less incentive for a hasty deal, and is in the driver's seat - but surely the White House knows this, which is perhaps why the pressure is ramping up on Zelensky once again.

As for the apparently ever-changing draft minerals deal, Ukraine and its supporters have continued to charge that it's tantamount to a big resource grab by Washington.

Ukraine received its latest version of a new draft of the text on Friday, its foreign ministry stated. CNN writes that "The new proposal for a natural resources agreement, of which CNN has obtained a copy, was put forward by the US Treasury Department and goes well beyond the initial draft, particularly on future US rights and reimbursement for past assistance."

Some independent geopolitical observers have said the deal effectively imposes 'indentured servitude' on Ukraine. "This 'deal' is pure extortion and robbery. It would bind Ukraine indefinitely. It would also discourage any investment in any natural deposits in Ukraine. There is no chance that any such deal will be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament," Moon of Alabama writes.

The source then questions, "one wonders then: Why does the Trump administration even bother?"

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 10:00

April Fools

Zero Hedge -

April Fools

By Michael Every of Rabobank

April Fools

Spot the April Fools’ Day jokes among the following recent headlines:

The Daily Mail says Trump could technically be President for a further two terms using a loophole Eisenhower considered, running as Vice President to a presidential candidate who resigns after they are sworn into office: then Trump alluded to that possibility.

The Financial Times’ chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman therefore recommends Americans “embrace and push forward” AOC and Bernie Saunders as a defence against a slide into authoritarianism, a-la “Russia, Turkey, and India.”

The Washington Post says a Department of Defence memo declares China the strategic focus, along with preventing the capture of Taiwan: Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorism are all secondary. Further, the US must now guarantee control over the Panama Canal and ensure a military presence in the "near abroad" --a Russian term-- of Greenland and Panama, the former of which Trump refuses to rule out the use of military force to obtain.

Worse, the memo says the US cannot fight on two fronts, so Europe must fight Russia itself. That’s as Moscow signed up another 160,000 conscripts, saying they won’t be sent to Ukraine, and Europe only did the latter; and Germany’s intel service reports Russia is most likely preparing for a "large-scale conventional war” with NATO by the end of the decade.

British Steel shut down its Scunthorpe plant after 150 years just as the UK aims to rearm. The government says it had “productive negotiations” with the US on an “economic prosperity deal” --not “co-prosperity”?-- as reports say London will buy F-35 fighter jets rather than Eurofighters; yet the UK was also just told “no free trade without free speech” by the US.

Finland’s President dropped in to play golf at Mar-a-Lago and emerged with a deal, Trump saying: “President Stubb and I look forward to strengthening the partnership between the US and Finland. That includes the purchase and development of a large number of badly needed icebreakers for the US."

Then again, the leading 2027 French presidential candidate, the National Rally’s Le Pen, has just been banned from running for office for five years and sentenced to four years for embezzlement. The same accusation had already circled the French Prime Minister, who wasn’t charged, and Le Pen called it a political attack and appealed, as populists, including Trump, rally round her. Moreover, El Pais reports the EU is considering using their Anti-Coercion Instrument on the US as a response to tariffs, which would be economically escalatory - and geopolitically naïve.

Slovakia’s populist Prime Minister Fico claims European Commission President Von der Leyen called him “a complete idiot” for half an hour in a phone call over his attempt to negotiate lower tariffs with the US directly.

Trump is “p***ed off” at Russia’s Putin and may put 25-50% secondary tariffs on Russian oil if he doesn’t play ball on Ukraine peace, as with/double Venezuela. The implications for the oil market are enormous – Brent is just shy of $75, which is surely not what ‘no Russian oil’ implies(?)

An IDF source says a clash with Iran is “inevitable”, and some muse on the same vis Israel-Turkey. Iran’s president rejected direct negotiations with the US, to which Trump replied: "If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing - and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before." Iran then warned it will strike the Diego Garcia base if the US uses it to attack it --quite the logistical feat!- as a new airstrip appeared next to the Bab-el-Mandeb maritime chokepoint - a likely UAE contribution.

Trump’s first foreign visit as president will, again, be to Saudi in May, showing big changes may loom. That’s as Israel steels its border with Jordan and, with the unconditional backing of the US, demanded Egypt dismantle its growing military presence in the Sinai Peninsula. Moreover, as Israel’s PM Netanyahu was called out of one of his now-regular court corruption trial sessions for a police interview after two of his aides were arrested for receiving funds from Qatar.

US Secretary of Defence Hegseth just ramped up arms and promises to the Philippines and Japan, and claimed the latter shares a “warrior ethos”. Then China, Japan, and South Korea pledged deepened regional trade relations and, said Chinese media, a joint response to US tariffs, as well as an attempt to denuclearise North Korea.

China passed a law saying if it’s sanctioned by another state, it can legally expropriate that country’s firms’ IP or assets, just as it stressed how open to global businesses it is again.

Canada’s caretaker PM Carney proposed pivoting from “because markets” on housing to post-WW2 state interventionism. There’s a lot of that about, and markets clearly don’t like it.

The EU is reportedly exploring a weaker 2040 climate goal, keeping a 90% emissions-cutting target but changing how countries calculate their progress – either less now, more later; or letting other countries do it for them and buying carbon credits.

The US Trade Representative released a 397-page report detailing other economies’ non-tariff barriers ahead of tomorrow’s ‘Liberation Day’, which cover just about everything imaginable. That’s as The Wall Street Journal says, ‘The Era of Cheap Stuff Was Already Ending. Now Comes the Tariff Threat,’ and Bloomberg adds Trump tariffs “pose a generational challenge to Asian economies built around exports to the US and low trade barriers.”

Yet an FT op-ed yesterday argued ‘Globalisation will triumph over Donald Trump’, quoting those saying even if the US stops buying everything from everyone, within a year, 70 of its trading partners would have redirected all their exports to others, and within five years, 115 would have. To whom? Priced and cleared in which currency? And, if so, why are worrying about tariffs at all?

The market continues to ponder ‘dedollarisation’: in which case nobody is net exporting to the US or has future access to enough dollars to repay their outstanding Eurodollar debts, let alone import bills priced in it, so the global financial system crumbles – and I don’t mean a ‘correction’.

As @balajis puts it: No reindustrialisation without dedollarisation. But dedollarisation means imperial collapse. On the other hand, so does deindustrialisation! This is the fundamental paradox.”  It has been for some time if you looked at the world with the right lenses, and they also show everything is now about US Grand Macro Strategy, not macrostrategy, to try to square the above circle by whatever means necessary: if lines on maps can move, so will lines on screens.

As two Fed speakers (Williams and Barkin) just said they don’t know where monetary policy needs to be ahead, and that the risk is of higher inflation ahead from tariffs despite matching uncertainty, @daniel_mcdowell puts it: We're living through a natural experiment. Can economic and monetary orders built atop particular political orders survive when the latter are dismantled? Markets may very well be grossly underestimating the kind of economic changes heading our way if we continue on this course.”

So, how many April Fools were there today? None. Unless you aren’t looking at any of the above news - then there’s at least one.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 09:40

Xiaomi Shares Slide After SU7 Sedan With Intelligent Assisted Driving Crashes, Three Dead

Zero Hedge -

Xiaomi Shares Slide After SU7 Sedan With Intelligent Assisted Driving Crashes, Three Dead

Shares of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xiaomi tumbled in Hong Kong trading on Tuesday following a deadly crash involving one of its SU7 sedans, which claimed three lives on Saturday. The accident has intensified scrutiny over the safety of advanced driving systems, as data from the vehicle has been turned over to local authorities for investigation.

HK shares of Xiaomi closed down 5.5% and have since tumbled into a bear market since peaking in mid-March. Downward pressure began when it raised about $5.5 billion in an equity sale last week to fund EV expansion. 

"Investors might have concerns over Xiaomi's competitiveness and growth outlook after reports of the car accident," Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co., said, adding that the completion of the share sale has "also weighed on sentiment."

The accident is the first major one involving the SU7 sedan, which Xiaomi launched in late 1Q24 and has outsold Tesla's Model 3 monthly since December. 

On Xiaomi's Weibo account, the company stated it was "deeply saddened" by the accident and said the "vehicle was in the NOA intelligent assisted driving state before the accident." 

Here are more details about the accident from Xiaomi:

At 22:44 on March 29, 2025, a Xiaomi SU7 standard version encountered a serious traffic accident while driving on the Chiqi section of the Deshang Expressway. We are deeply saddened by this.

According to preliminary information, the vehicle was in the NOA intelligent assisted driving state before the accident and continued to travel at a speed of 116km/h. Due to construction and repairs on the section where the accident occurred, the self-lane was closed with roadblocks and diverted to the reverse lane. After the vehicle detected the obstacle, it issued a reminder and began to slow down. The driver then took over the vehicle and entered the human driving state, continued to slow down and control the vehicle to turn, and then the vehicle collided with the cement pile of the isolation belt. The last speed that the system could confirm before the collision was about 97km/h.

After the collision, we immediately contacted the owner to understand that it was not the owner who was driving. At the same time, emergency rescue called the passengers on the car, called the police, and called 120 emergency services.

After that, the police arrived at the scene immediately and fully intervened in the investigation of the accident. At the same time, we immediately set up a special team and rushed to Tongling on the 30th. Under the guidance of the police, we actively cooperated with the investigation, evidence collection and other work, and submitted the vehicle driving data and system operation information we had to the police in accordance with the law on the evening of the 31st. We will continue to fully cooperate with the police and strictly follow the results of the investigation to ensure that the handling of the incident is open and transparent.

At the same time, our special team will also contact the families of the accident victims with the permission and guidance of the police, fully assist in the aftermath, and provide support and help.

We are summarizing the information we know so far and have submitted to the police as follows:

  • March 29, 22:27:17 NOA activated, vehicle speed 116km/h

  • March 29, 22:28:17 Mild distraction alarm March 29, 22:36:48 NOA issued a hands-off warning prompt "Please hold the steering wheel"

  • March 29, 22:44:24 NOA issued a risk warning "Please note that there are obstacles ahead", issued a deceleration request, and began to decelerate

  • March 29, 22:44:25 NOA was taken over and entered human driving state, the steering wheel turned 22.0625 degrees to the left, and the brake pedal was opened 31%

  • March 29, 22:44:26 The steering wheel turned 1.0625 degrees to the right, and the brake pedal was opened 38%.

  • Between 22:44:26 and 28 on March 29, the vehicle collided with the concrete guardrail on

  • March 29, 22:44:28 Ecall triggered on the vehicle side.

  • 22:44:39 on March 29. Ecall connected on the vehicle side, confirming the accident, calling the police and 120 emergency services.

  • 22:45:06 on March 29. Contacted the owner and confirmed that the driver was not the owner.

  • 22:47:15 on March 29. 120 was dispatched successfully.

  • 120 arrived at the scene at about 23:00 on March 29.

Here is an alleged video of the accident scene on the Dezhou-Shangrao Expressway in Tongling in southern Anhui Province, eastern China. 

Last month, Xiaomi raised its 2025 sales target to 350,000 units. Whether the fatal crash last weekend will dampen confidence and affect sales moving forward remains uncertain. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 09:00

Transcript: Michael Lewis on ‘Who is Government’

The Big Picture -



 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Michael Lewis on ‘Who is Government’, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

This is Masters in business with Barry Riol on Bloomberg Radio

Barry Ritholtz: This week on the podcast, what can I say? Every time I am afforded an opportunity to sit down with Michael Lewis, it’s just delightful. He, he’s such a fascinating character. The people and ideas he writes about are absolutely fascinating. His new book, he, he has this just absolutely insane way of seeing around a corner. I asked him, how come every time you find yourself covering a subject, six months later, it blows up and it’s in the headlines. He, he’s done it with, with the big shorty. The Big Short, though was mostly after the fact, but he did it with Flash Boys and he did it with, with Moneyball, and he certainly did it with going Infinite. And now he’s doing it again with who’s government. We talk a little bit about the Elon Musk and Doge, but we mostly talk about these nameless, faceless civil servants who dedicate their career to providing a service to the American taxpayer.

Whether it’s saving lives in coal mines or stopping cyber crime, or keeping you the food supply safe, the book is just filled with all these stories and it’s, it’s absolutely a nonpartisan, it’s not a left right thing. It’s, Hey, there are certain things that only government can do. The private sector isn’t building the interstate highway system or nasa. In fact, when you see private sector services in these spaces, it’s because they’ve built on top of the seminal work the government has done that no one would undertake these projects that are billions of dollars and take decades. The ROI just is too far, too long, too expensive. The book is fascinating. Michael’s fascinating. If you’re listening this far into the intro, it’s because you know this is gonna be delightful. With no further ado my discussion with Michael Lewis about his new book, who is Government, Michael Lewis. I don’t have to welcome you. Let’s just jump right into this and we’ll start with your prior book, the Fifth Risk, which is really the predecessor to who is Government. Tell us about that earlier book on presidential transitions.

Michael Lewis: Trump had just been elected for the first time and he had fired his transition team, and I didn’t, I, I learned all this after the fact, but outgoing presidents are required by law to prepare a transition, and so the Obama administration had deputed a thousand people inside the government to prepare the best course ever given on how the government works and not just the White House, right? The Department of Energy and all those other places. And Trump had fired the mechanism for getting the briefings. He fired all 550 people and told Chris Christie that he didn’t need to know because he could figure out everything he needed to know in an hour about how the federal government worked. When I saw this, I thought, it’s like a great comic premise. I’m gonna get to roll around the government and get the briefings, and the reader will be on the joke that we know more about the government than the president does, because they haven’t bothered to learn.

And so, and I, and it was just sort of like where you start, and I, and there like two things where I started and, and what kind of the, the spirit in which I did it, the spirit was go to places that no one has any idea what they do. Like most, the, the, I mean, I’m surrounded, I’m in Berkeley. I’m surrounded by people who talk about politics all the time and, and just wanna inflict their political opinions on me constantly. And but if I ask them, what does the Department of Commerce do? They have no idea.

Barry Ritholtz: Like they do commerce, right?

Michael Lewis:  Yeah, yeah. Their business. Some some business thing, yeah, something.  What they do is weather, you know? But it would never mind.

And, but I didn’t know that, so, so I just thought, I’m gonna go to the places that, that are most opaque to the American people. And so I picked, I picked the Department of Agriculture, commerce and Energy and thinking like, if I can make these swing on the page, I can make anything swing on the page and energy. But I started with energy because it was so great. He had appointed Rick Perry, former governor of Texas to be the Secretary of Energy. And Rick Perry had called for the elimination of the Department of Energy when he was around for president. Like, all this waste and fraud in the government we’re gonna get rid of whole departments. And one of ’em is department energy, and now he’s supposed to run it.

He found out quickly what I found out when I walked in and got the briefings that, oh, they run the nuclear stockpile. Oh, oh, they gave the loan that created Tesla, you know, oh, oh, there’s like, there’s one thing after another in it. And he had to backtrack in his hearing and say, oh, I didn’t mean that. You know, really, we need the Department of Energy. And so, so anyway, I don’t wanna go too long about this, but to, but to say that I wrote these things in Vanity Fair, long form narrative journalism. I stapled them together into the book, the Fifth Risk. It sold half a million copies.

Barry Ritholtz: That’s a lot for a finance book, right? It’s, people don’t understand. It’s a lot

Michael Lewis:  Oh, it’s a lot for a book. This was an indication, this was market testing. This was an indication to me that, oh my God, people really do actually want to know that there is these stories interest me, but it’s not just me. So I had in the back of that, in the back of my mind over the last few years, because I had this other takeaway from the Fifth Risk. And it was, although I, I’d written a lot about the, what the, these places done. It was like a travel, they were like travel pieces. It wasn’t until the very end in the paperback where I did a deep dive on a single character, on a single bureaucrat. And he was, and I had picked him his name kind of out of a jar. It was, the material was literary, the material was just epic.

It was so good. I thought, man, I wanna come back and just do more of that. Like grab people out of the government and just see, write about a person. I’m gonna, at some point it’s gonna, the accusation is gonna arise and it always does. Like, oh, this is just Michael Lewis making it up, or this is Michael Lewis with his own view or whatever. And so I thought, grab a bunch of other writers and, and do it with them. Drop them in, parachute them in wherever they want to go, and have them write stories so that you can see just how rich and interesting a place this is. And that’s what, that’s that idea is what led to who is government.

Barry Ritholtz: So I have to point out what an incredible knack you have for finding yourself in the right place at the right moment in history. You did it with FTX and, and Sam Bankman freed in the, that’s leading up, that’s pure luck. Pure luck. Okay, so, so now you, you write a book about the transition in the first Trump administration and lots of things you wr write about in the fifth risk turn out to be very prescient for how the administration in many different ways, I don’t wanna make a blanket statement about them, but in specific areas, specific policies kind of drop the ball and bad things happen. But the thing that’s so fascinating is this book about all these different government agencies and the really amazing work these people do comes out right into the doge elimination of, we’re gonna close the Department of Education, we’re gonna fire all these people, whether we have the authority to or not. Your timing is really exquisite twice, are you telling me this is dumb luck four times in a row?

Michael Lewis:  Alright, let me try. So kind of, but let, let me, let me, at a certain point, you

Barry Ritholtz: I know you’re fairly humble and it’s not a false humility, but at a certain point, us readers of your work have to say, Hey, this guy really sees around a corner, finds an area before anyone else has any inkling, big things are going on there. And by the time we realize it, he already has the full story out in paperback.

Michael Lewis:  I love how much, I love how much more credit you give me than I deserve. However…

Barry Ritholtz: Are you saying it’s luck? I don’t believe it. So,

Michael Lewis:  So, so, so if I were trying to explain me, like how, how, if I was trying to give myself some credit for the serendipity of my book publication dates, I, I guess what I’d say is that the best way to predict the future is just observe very closely the present. So it’s close observation of what’s going on in at a moment. And it’s also, the other thing is being interested in the thing you’re interested in rather than the thing everybody’s talking about. And so nobody’s talking about this, but it’s interesting. That’s, that’s good because it means that it’s gonna be fresh and different. And I guess it may be, it’s true that when I’m closely observing something, I’m really interested in that the world is not all that interested in that. Some of those things end up being the future and that that’s true. And so that’s, but it isn’t like, you know, you know, all kinds of people who make a decent living on the lecture C circuit, being able, pretending to be able to tell the future, right? Pretending you written a I’m, I’ve just gotten how not to invest, and I assume I will find in this book a chapter about false prognostication. We know that, you know, the future, it’s too complicated. So all you could tell is the present really well. And if you tell the present really well, and, and you’re not just defaulting to what everybody’s talking about in the moment, you will get the future sometimes.

Barry Ritholtz: Huh. I, I love that

Michael Lewis:  It’s similar to, it’s similar to investing. I bet. Very similar.

Barry Ritholtz: No kidding,

Michael Lewis: Right? It’s like, oh, this company really interests me. Why isn’t anybody here? Why isn’t anybody investing in it? But I’m really interested in it. That’s a, that’s like a great sign that you’re interested in. Nobody else’s figured it out yet. And that, that’s the, that’s a great sign with writing too.

Barry Ritholtz: So something interests you. What I find fascinating is you end up kind of embedding yourself in unfamiliar places and fields that you haven’t necessarily studied before.

Michael Lewis: Things I don’t know anything about, right?

Barry Ritholtz: By the way, that is a sign of a, of a curious intellect, Hey, I don’t know anything about this. I’m going deep down the rabbit hole to learn. But a lot of these things are kind of big institutions that don’t trust outsiders, that don’t trust the media or authors. How do you win these people over? I mean, you know, ni 2020s, Michael Lewis is a well-known guy, and maybe you have a, an ability to gain the trust of people now, but you’ve been doing this your whole career. How do you win the trust and how do you get close to people who are skeptical and reserved and holding the public in arms’ distance?

Michael Lewis: So we’ve seen, you’ve seen how Elon Musk has approached government employees over the last 60 days with hostility, malice, and condescension. And that it’s the opposite of, of the way to approach someone if you actually wanna learn. So I don’t have a perfect answer to this, but a co I’ll say a couple of things that I think helped me. One is I’m usually just genuinely curious. Like, I really have some questions I want to answer. Why are you winning baseball games? You know, like, explain it to me. How did you figure out to short the market in 2007? How did you figure out how to stop coal mine roofs from falling in on the heads of coal miners? Like, I just, like, I, it’s like you, something ha has happened here and you know the answer. And I genuinely wanna know the answer. People respond to genuine curiosity, which is different from I have a theory and I want you to sort of dance inside my theory, which is like, I’ve sat in a room and I’ve decided there’s a story here.

This is the story I’m just gonna gather some quotes to, to fill in the story. Nothing I’ve done that’s any good is that it’s always like just a glimmer of an interest and I just wanna know. And so it creates a natural learning environment. That’s one. Two, don’t be boring. Like, I, I, if if it’s, if it’s tedious for me to show up, like that’s bad and which you want almost the opposite. It’s like, I hope he comes, ’cause I learned something last time just from the questions he asked. And, and he adds value in some other way, like he brings good sandwiches or whatever. So no, it’s, so, it’s like you wanna create an incentive system, right? People respond to incentives. You wanna create, you wanna make them want, want you there. It’s not, not just not want you there. It’s like, want you there.

So that’s, that’s a a, a second sort of prerequisite. And the third is I try to make it clear what I’m thinking when I’m thinking it. And so I’m not hiding like myself from the person I’m writing about. I’m letting ’em get to know me a little bit if I’m letting ’em bouncing theories off them and listening ’em respond and object or whatever. And so that they’re don’t, they aren’t shocked. They’re often shocked when they read the book ’cause they’re surprised what I’ve decided is important and what isn’t. They’re sometimes shocked by the way I see them or describe them a little shocked. But they aren’t shocked by like, what I’m interested in. They, I’m not, they don’t have a feeling. I’m being sneaky. So, so all those help, I think, and I have to say this, that people I write about, they often are really interesting people with really interesting stories.

And while they may not think of themselves and usually don’t think of themselves as characters, they’re very aware. They’re in the middle of something interesting. That’s why they’re doing it. So they can understand why I’m so interested. Like yeah, I get it. I, I, I, I, I get why you, you have all of a sudden gotten interested in local public health, says charity dean, because it’s broken and that’s why we’re not responding well to this. You know, it’s like, or I get why Sam Bankman free, he understood. I thought of him as weird, like, you are a weirdo moving through the world with a very weird view of the world and you’re, you’re seeking to impose this sort of abstract idea about how to live on the world around you. And I just wanna watch it. And he, he, he is like, yeah, I get that. I know I’m weird. I know what’s happening is weird and I understand why you’re amused by it. Go ahead, watch. You know, that, that, so that it has to be an honest relationship, right? It just has to be an honest relationship.

Barry Ritholtz: So, so I’m curious, you, you’ve delved into baseball, into football, into high frequency trading, psychology, now government. What, what’s been the biggest surprise that you found in all these areas? Like, you’re delving into things that interest you, but what do, what really sticks out in any of your books where you say, huh, didn’t see that coming? Not counting SBF getting busted. No, you,

Michael Lewis:  You took away the easy one,

Barry Ritholtz: That’s, I know I did that on purpose. You think of that easy. That’s the obvious one, right? Yeah. Although, as, as I was reading that book, your book going infinite, like, like there are all sorts of little signposts along the way. I’m sure a lot of that’s just hindsight bias. ’cause as you were writing those chapters that hadn’t yet happened, right? But as you’re reading it, it’s like, oh, this can’t be good. You know, the all these little, little, it’s like a fault line with an earthquake. All these little pressures are building up along the book. I don’t know if that’s intentional. Oh, it’s

Michael Lewis: Oh its Totally intentional. I didn’t start writing it until it all blew up.

Barry Ritholtz: Oh, you didn’t? All right. So,

Michael Lewis: So yeah, no, it’s intentional.

Barry Ritholtz: So, but that was an obvious one. What, what was like, I didn’t see that coming. Alright, so

Michael Lewis: Here’s one from this book. This is illustrating a general point. And the general point is the difference between what you imagine a story is and what’s or what’s going on in the world. What you, what’s your, what’s going on in your, when you’re just doing it through abstract kind of speculation compared to when you go out and report and learn and collide with the world and how much more interesting the world ends up being than you imagine, even when you imagine it being interesting. So the first story in this book, Christopher Mark, I, how do I find it? I find it because I get a list of nominees for civil service awards, like 600 people on this list. How do you pick one of ’em? It’s all these names and descriptions of things they’ve done. Joe Blow at the FBI has broken up a, a child porn ring but doesn’t say anything about Joe Blow.

I get to a name on the list. It says Chris Mark, solve the problem of coal mine roofs falling in on the heads of coal miners, which killed 50,000 coal miners in the last century. A former coal miner. It says, alright, sitting at my desk, I’m thinking, man, there’s a story. And I already think I know what the story is. I think the story is, alright, this guy probably grew up in West Virginia, former coal miner. He’s, there’s gotta have been some personal, if it’s killing all these coal miners. And he got outta the coal miner to fix it. A friend, a relative, someone got killed by a coal mine. He that it was like, there’s a movie in this kind of, I already had it in my head, but then I call him up, I find him, he lives in Pittsburgh. He knows who I am ’cause he’s Red Moneyball.

He’s like, why the hell are you calling me? Like, it was just bizarre. It was like, he took me a while to believe it was me. And I said, I just like, I saw this line on a list. He didn’t even know he’d been nominated for a prize. So it was especially weird. And he, and he said, I said like, I just, just gimme the five minute summary of your story. And he says, the first thing outta his mouth is, I grew up in Princeton, New Jersey, and my dad was a professor at the university. I thought, oh, there goes my story. Right? It’s so much for presumptions, right? So much for presumptions, so much for the movie, right? Well, but hold on. In the next 10 minutes he tells me this, he had been a radical in the sixties as a little kid radicalized started calling, throwing around words like bourgeois.

His father said that he was like, didn’t wanna join the ruling class, didn’t wanna go to Harvard, which he could have. And Dr. Leaves high school early to go join the working class. Much to his father’s chagrin, like his father’s really upset. His father is famous guy. I mean his, in his world, Robert Mark. Robert Mark was a civil engineer who took technology. He used to like stress test fighter planes for the air force and nuclear reactors for Princeton. He took it and used it to figure out, to stress test gothic cathedrals. He built little models of like sharks and rim and he could show what was holding the roof up basically. And he could also show why it might collapse or where it was weak. And so he actually taught all art architectural historians how the, the medieval builders had built the gothic cathedrals.

And there’s, there’s actually documentaries about him in this. So anyway, that’s his dad. Chris Rebels against his dad, not gonna have anything to do with your way of life, not having to do anything with you. Ends up working in an auto factory in a, in a UPS plant. And finally in a coal mine in West Virginia, he ends up with like his fellow young radicals, 19 years old, working in a coal mine. The young radicals la last like a day. ’cause it’s so awful. Chris actually likes the working in the coal mine. It, he’s interested in it, but it’s incredibly ja dangerous. He almost is killed twice by falling roofs. Eventually figures. I could get outta this and figure out how to like stop this. He goes back to Penn State, gets his degree, and then he’s got his own intellectual journey, right? This is, which I don’t get into while I’m talking to him, but in this first phone call, he says, I, it took, you know, it took 30 years, but I figured out how to keep the roofs of coal mines from falling on the heads of coal miners.

And I say, oh, so you rebelling at your dad who was figuring out how the roofs of gothic cathedrals didn’t fall down. And you just do the same thing underground. You figure out like how to keep the roof of a coal mine up. And he, in the first 20 minutes, he’s pissed at me, he says, I have nothing to do with my dad. It has nothing whatsoever to do with what my father did. And I, and I thought, oh my God, this is even better than I thought. It’s a father son story. And the fa the son thinks he’s rebelling against his father. And in fact he goes and sort of lives out a different version of his father’s life and what’s wild about the story. So I have that thought. And when I start to get to know him, it takes a while before he says to me like, days of spending time with him, oh, and my dad and I finally kind of collaborated.

I said, what? And he says, yeah, yeah, the government called my father because they thought the national cathedral in Washington was falling down. And I don’t know if that national cathedral in Washington was built over a century, it’s tilted. They, they, what happened was they built an insufficient foundation for what they redesigned on top of it. And the fathers brought is brought into like, oh Jesus, can you pr tell us how to keep this thing from falling? And the father gets there and realizes the problem’s underground. And so he, he has to call his son. And together they write a paper explaining why it’s not gonna, you know, how it’s all working and why it’s probably not gonna fall down. But it’s beautiful. It’s absolutely beautiful, like an amazing story. And it was, and it was so different from what I, my feeble imagination had dreamed up. And this happens over and over and over and over.

Barry Ritholtz: You know, the, the most amazing thing about that chapter, and we’ll talk about the book in more detail in a few minutes, you kind of buried the lead in your discussion. He is studying this problem for 30 years. Like this isn’t like he keeps coming back to it. This is three decades of his life. And he eventually figures it out. Issues like a set of guidelines to coal companies and every engineer and every safety person and every coal mine that now becomes the standard. Plus the government makes it a regulatory requirement. And it wasn’t that, oh, the free market figured this out, but for the regulations we would still be having all these coal mine collapses.

Michael Lewis: What’s wildly cool about Christopher Mark is that not only does he do all this, he becomes the historian of his own subject. He becomes an he, he writes these papers explaining why coal mine safety had was so poor. And he finds the whole world in this very narrow subject. And there’s a moment that’s actually really interesting where he shows that the technology had been created to actually pre to just prevent a lot of the disasters. And the coal mine industry, it was, so

Barry Ritholtz: You’re talking about the ceiling rods?

Michael Lewis: The the roof bolts. The bolts right, the bolts, you bolt the roof to itself. It’s not intuitive. Like when they first started doing it, the miners are like, what the hell you, how are you gonna bolt the roof to itself? But you bolt you, you drill, essentially you’re attaching more less unstable rock to deeper, more stable rock. And you, you anchor it in, in what’s in the mountain above it. But I mean, this is a long time ago. This is invented 50, 60 years ago or whatever. But instead of using the technology properly, like in a way that pro really prevents, reduces roof falls, the industry uses it to make it cheaper, to make it just as safe as it’s always been, meaning not safe. So they maintain the same level of mortality, like the same level of risk. It’s just less cost and just reducing the cost of what they’re doing to hold the roof up.

And so what they’d done, and it’s because it’s because the industry was so competitive that nobody could take the step of making the extra expense of making the mine really safe. And they had acclimated the working guys in West Virginia mainly, but the coal miners who work everywhere in the country to this level of risk. So they were just used to it. It was really interesting that the market, you would think if you were sitting in a room alone thinking about it, you think, oh, some coal mine companies gonna make their mine safer and that’s gonna make it easier to track workers less expense because the roof is fall not falling in as much. But no, that’s not what happened. What happened was…

Barry Ritholtz: You’re familiar with, you’re familiar with the Peltzman effect. Does that ring a bell?

Michael Lewis:  No. Tell me what it is. So

Barry Ritholtz: Sam Peltzman, and this is my in, in 2040, my next book, Sam Peltzman iss, the guy who studies seat belts and airbags and ABS and all that stuff. And what turns out to happen is exactly what happened with the coal mine. As soon as you get a seatbelt and an airbag, and you’re driving, you think, “Oh, this car feels solid and safe. So I could drive a little faster. Wow”.

And so we have all the safety equipment that keeps getting built into cars and yet the fatality rates don’t drop. Right? It’s not that we’re all gonna just do 55 and we’re that much safer, all this great no crumple zones and lane detection and all these things. They make us complacent and comfortable.

And so we drive faster and the fatality rates are the same. So you can either maintain the same behavior and have the fatality rate drop or like drivers and coal mine companies, you could have the same fatality rate, but with a whole lot more speed and or coal mining. Right? It’s a, it’s a fascinating psychological thing.

Michael Lewis: What is, I want you to apply that effect to investing. What’s the aversion of the pel? It’s the peltzman effect.

Barry Ritholtz: I think what it really is about is the broader picture is unintended consequences. You think when the seatbelt laws are passed, the result will be we’ll have fewer deaths and safer vehicles. But instead the actual results,t he unintended consequence is faster cars is that people just drive faster.

So from investing perspective, you know, Paul Volcker famously said, there’ve been no the other than the atm, there’s been no innovations in finance, but there actually have been between ETFs and online trading, and now trading is free. And I, in the book, I go through a whole long list and what ends up happening and now you have the gamification of Robinhood. So instead of making things cheaper and easier and faster for investors, we’re still encouraging, or at least the industry is encouraging many of our own worst instincts. And of course, the outcomes instead of saying, Hey, I could buy an ETF and buy the whole market for three bips and it cost me nothing to trade, and wow, isn’t that great? Instead of doing that, a lot of people say, oh, I could day trade, I could, you know, jump in and out of Nvidia. This is, this is great. It it is the airbags, a, b, s and seat belts of investing. And instead of taking the win, we just keep pushing our risk aversion slides up with the lack of friction

Michael Lewis:  The greater the illusion of safety we create in the markets, the more people, the more recklessly the people behave

Barry Ritholtz: Especially if you’re in the midst of a bull market. Yeah. Because at that point, hey, markets only go up. That’s all they do. So I, I say this to you all the time and you push back, but I gotta bring it up again. All of the characters in the book are very Michael Lewis, they’re all outsiders. They’re quirky, they’re pushing against the grain. ’cause they’ve discovered some great out of consensus truth. You’ve disagreed with that description before. Has this book changed your mind? Because it’s, even the chapters you didn’t write are still Michael Lewis characters. All

Michael Lewis:  Right. So I want you to, all right, I’m gonna push back again. I, these writers who did this with me are some of my favorite writers on the planet. And,

Barry Ritholtz:  And they are all excellent.

Michael Lewis: So lemme just name them. So we, the people know it is Dave Eggers, Geraldine Brooks, Kamal Bell, Casey Sep, Sarah Val and John Lanchester. So John Lanchester, English writer, and they all have, they were, I picked them one ’cause they’re all fun. Two ’cause they’re all able to kind of go in and find stories that other people don’t see. And three, their voices are so different from each other. I thought they’d find very different things. John Lanchester, he doesn’t find a person, he finds the consumer price index. It’s a whole chapter about, it’s, I just found riveting about what the United States does to count things and that the United States government is like the greatest counting mechanism in the world. And that it’s that it’s the one democracy where counting was, it was, it was built into the Constitution. You couldn’t distribute power unless you had a census to count where the population was. And he says as example he and how complicated this is and how much, you know, how much expertise is deployed within the government to do it. Well he, he explains over many pages how the consumer price index is put together. So right there, there you go. There is something that I, that is not a Michael Lewis character

00:29:31 [Speaker Changed] That’s the exception that proves the rule. And I’m gonna, I’m gonna put this right

00:29:34 [Speaker Changed] Back at you. No exceptions don’t prove rules just so you know. But the exception when that, that expression means it tests the rule.

00:29:41 [Speaker Changed] Okay,

00:29:41 [Speaker Changed] So and so that I would, I just tested the rule, said I’m, so 00:29:45 [Speaker Changed] You gave me the one,

00:29:45 [Speaker Changed] I’m gonna test it

00:29:46 [Speaker Changed] Again. You gave me the one chapter that wasn’t a Michael Michael Lewis character. So the conversation we just had about Christopher Mark and the coal mines, oh my God, how is he not a total Michael Lewis? Oh, of course. Alright, alright, sure. Next chapter. And you didn’t write this, I think this was Casey S’s chapter about Ronald Walters and the National Cemetery Administration. So

00:30:09 [Speaker Changed] This is a little bit of a cheat because Casey asked me which year, what if I had anything left on, on the cut. She had, she said we should, do you have anything on the cutting room floor from the fifth risk? And I had all this stuff on the cutting room floor ’cause there was so much stuff. And I said, you know, there is this dude who wouldn’t take my calls. Like I, I couldn’t get him. Oh, really? Oh yeah, no, it was, it was like they, they didn’t want to, and I, of course was going through communications as officials and they never respond properly, but his name was Ron Walters. And I, what I knew was this, that they’re inside the Veterans Administration. There’s something called the, there’s the a function, the management of the national cemeteries where we bury our war dead, we bury our veterans.

00:30:51 It is a sacred duty of the society. And that this, that like all the functions of the all the different agencies, this place has its customer satisfaction measured by ser by survey. And that when Ron Walter came into the job of running the national cemeteries, it had very mediocre customer satisfaction. I don’t know why, I don’t know what was going on. I don’t know anything in the story. Casey wrote the story. But that over a, a couple of decades, he took the place from being kind of mediocre to having the highest customer satisfaction of any institution in America, private or public, that includes Costco, Walmart, FedEx. He somehow figured out the problem and no one knew who he was. He didn’t advertise himself. If he had done this in business, he’d be like on the cover of business magazines and giving lectures for money on the lecture circuit. You know, that. But, but he, he was just this faceless bureaucrat who would figure something out. And I said to Casey, go write, I’d write about him. And for whatever reason, he took her call and she, and she, she, we, he, she walks us through his story.

00:32:02 [Speaker Changed] First of all, that that chapter made me cry, number one. Yep. It it’s incredibly touching and and it makes you proud to be an American. It really, I know that’s corny, but it really does. But all right, so that’s a cheap, let, let me,

00:32:19 [Speaker Changed] Let me, that’s so the next, so the next one, Dave, it’s probably Dave Eggers, Dave Eggers. And he goes and finds the people in Nassau who looking for little green men in deep outer space. Oh,

00:32:27 [Speaker Changed] It’s searchers.

00:32:28 [Speaker Changed] Yeah.

00:32:29 [Speaker Changed] Alright,

00:32:30 [Speaker Changed] So maybe not little green men. They’re looking for life and out. Well,

00:32:33 [Speaker Changed] And the fascinating thing is we’re, we’re gonna clearly find the first line I highlighted. In all likelihood in the next 25 years, we’ll find evidence of life on another planet. I’m willing to say this because I’m not a scientist and I don’t work in media relations for nasa. What he’s talking initially about is not intelligent Star Trek, star Wars life, but hey, there’s hydrogen, carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, everywhere. Yeah. Those are the fundamental building blocks. And we’ll find some bacteria somewhere.

00:33:02 [Speaker Changed] You know what they’re gonna find? They’re gonna find the pelman effect. They’re gonna find somewhere way out there. They’re gonna, someone will have discovered the pelman effect. But, but, but the, yeah. So Dave, so how Dave, so Dave is working with these characters. I thought Dave, I told Dave this just the other day. The Dave, when he announced he was doing NASA and these people who were doing this incredibly cool work at the Jet Propulsion Lab in California, Geraldine Brooks, another of the writers said, yep, Dave is way too talented to do this. This is such an easy thing to make. Interesting. He needs to pick something that’s harder to write about. That this was, he, she, she thought he was cheating. That it was just like, of course everybody’s gonna love to read about this. And Geraldine said to him, said to me to say to him, if he does that, I’m gonna find the most repulsive government worker to write about.

00:33:55 I’m gonna go into the IRS, the most hated loathed branch of the government, and I’m gonna write about the IRS. So she did that in response to Dave’s piece. And she does do that. So that I wouldn’t, I mean, Dave has more, those characters are not characters I would’ve naturally sought out. They are characters. So as he puts it, he, he, he was like, he has no scientific aptitude. He, like, he stopped doing math and science when he was like seven years old. And he’s a poet at heart. So he finds it riveting when, when scientists can make comprehensible to him, complicated stuff they’re doing. And he had found these people and they could explain in a way, he could explain how they were doing what they were doing. And it is riveting. But I, but

00:34:39 [Speaker Changed] It’s also very Michael Lewis very, these quirky, you know, these are very quirky characters.

00:34:44 [Speaker Changed] All, all right, I’m gonna push back. I’m gonna push back.

00:34:46 [Speaker Changed] But before you push back, you just brought up Geraldine Brook Brooks and the cyber sleuth in the IRS. Here’s a guy who’s an accountant teaching classes in Brazilian jujitsu and like, like becoming a ninth level black. Like that is not your run of the mill. I need your papers to get your taxes filed.

00:35:06 [Speaker Changed] No, he’s had of, he’s works in the cyber crime division of the IRS and has collected billions of dollars for the government busting up cyber crime rings. Jared Kopman, his name, and here’s a, here’s a kicker for you. His unit, which is like a huge profit maker. They, they, they, I mean they cost nothing and they, they generate billions has been gutted by Doge in any case. But this is before it was gutted. Geraldine found this dude. I don’t know how she found him actually. She just went off. She said, I’m going in the IRS and I’m coming out with a story. And so she went in the IS and found him and, and called me. You know, it’s funny, she did call me. So this is not pushing back on you. When she was done with the story, she had to go back to a novel she was writing kind of thing.

00:35:52 And she said, this is such your kind of story. She said, there’s, there’s all this stuff behind it. You really need to look into it. Like it might be a book for you. So she had the thought she’d run into a story that I might have written. And that might be true there. But here’s what I’m gonna, let me just say this. Maybe I’m so jazzed by our federal government. ’cause when you walk into these places, they’re all these really curious characters doing really curious things and you haven’t heard of them. And you might not think they’re important until you do. And and they are characters in the best sense. They don’t think of themselves as characters. They just like, they are who they are. And they can be kind of shockingly interesting without realizing how interesting they are and that the stuff they’re doing is breathtakingly important, like existential risk, level of importance. So yes, I’m interested in that and they’re all over the government. And I, I think that if you said you have to spend the rest of your career wandering this institution writing about these people, I could, I could pull it off I that I could, I I could, I could use it as a launchpad for every other book I ever wrote if I had to.

00:37:05 [Speaker Changed] You mentioned Doge. One of the things that comes up in the book in her chapter is these guys that are literally saving tens of billions of dollars in cyber fraud. Their, their pay tops out at like $130,000. Something crazy. Like any one of them could go to a Wall Street Bank and 10 x their salary. Yep. Like, stop and think about how insane that is. And then you fire and we gotta cut those jobs

00:37:30 [Speaker Changed] And then you, we don’t Yeah. That you fire them. And not only that, you insult them before you fire them. Right. Give me a list of the five things you did last week. You know, it’s just, it’s obscene what’s going on right now. And that’s one of the, that that would be a place where you would dramatize some of the obscenity. Yeah. So I don’t think there’s a character in the book that couldn’t be paid a whole lot more money outside of the federal government. And this is another thing, I think this is between the lines of the book, but all these people are much more interested in mission than money. And this is hard for Wall Street people to get their minds around sometimes. But I don’t think entirely, there are a lot of Wall Street people who really get the joy of mission.

00:38:06 And these are people who take pay pay cuts because they want to do this thing. And nobody says this in any of the chapters, but I think all of the chapters say this, all these people have found the secret to a meaningful life. They’ve all, they, none of these people on their deathbeds are gonna look up and say, wow, I wished I, I wish I’d gone to Goldman, you know, that. Or I wish I’d made a whole lot of money. And that they all fulfill, like they did what they were supposed to do. And that, that’s kind of cool. There is this thing going on, how to lead your life right through it, right through the whole book. And I, and there’s a moment when I’m talking to Chris Mark, who, I mean, one of the reasons I find it hard to report Chris Mark, the coal mine guy, is that, you know, he won’t stay in the Ritz, he’ll stay in the Hampton Inn.

00:38:55 So I gotta stay in the Hampton Inn, you know, you know, he wants to sit in the back of the plane, so I gotta sit in the back of the plane. And so, you know, it’s like I I that I have, you know, a standard of comfort I’ve gotten used to that he finds like immoral, maybe too strong a word, but like unnecessary. And I, at one point he said to me, and I put it in the book because he has decided to live a life that’s materially modest, but spiritually rich. He said to me, we taught our kids there, there are two ways to be rich. One is to make a lot of money and the other way is to not need very much. And so I just thought, wow, you know, it’s interesting.

00:39:32 [Speaker Changed] Say what you will about the luxury quality of the Hampton Inn. It ain’t a coal mine. If you spent, and, and he spent a year or two working in a coal mine. Wait, I’m above ground on clean sheets with air conditioning and heat. Sign me

00:39:47 [Speaker Changed] Up pe and a Peloton now. Right? I couldn’t believe it. There’s a peloton in there.

00:39:52 [Speaker Changed] By the way, when I first saw this title, I picked up the book and I’m like, huh, I wonder if Michael’s gonna get a little partisan. This is one of those things that could really red state, blue state, but there’s none of that. This is all about you pay taxes and here’s what the government does to serve you. Whether you’re the family of a deceased veteran or relying on weather forecasts or stopping cyber crime or, you know, on and on it goes. These are really broad, non-partisan topics. Did did it ever enter your mind? Oh, someone’s gonna accuse me of, oh, that that punk Berkeley writer is really a libtard and we really don’t care what he has to say. Did did that ever enter your mind as you were putting this together? Of course.

00:40:42 [Speaker Changed] I mean, it was, it was top of mind. It was in, in a way. I mean, ’cause you, it has happened already and it will happen that you, it is a feature of our society right now that everything gets quickly politicized and you’re either, you’re either in tribe A or tribe tribe B. You’re either, you’re either an Ole Miss Rebel or a Alabama crimson tide player. You know, it’s the, it is, you’re, you’re on one team or the other. The the people need to need to see you that way. And especially the people who are most absorbed with the politics. And if you write anything that challenges the assumptions, prejudices, bigotry of one side or the other, they’re gonna try to dismiss it by just saying, you’re a member of the other tribe. So I can’t, you just can’t do anything about that except try to come at the material pure of heart and open a mind.

00:41:34 You know, it’s like these are stories that are true stories. You can maintain your prejudice in bigotry and whatever you think of federal workers, you know, you could, if you want to preserve that stereotype in your head, fine. But you’ve gotta acknowledge the truth of the stories. Like, okay, all federal workers are wasteful. Where do you put Chris Mark then he just, he just, he’s saving thousands of lives in, of working class men. Basically, what do you do with that? So what do you do with this and that and the other thing, I mean, there’s so many of these stories, so the FDA,

00:42:07 [Speaker Changed] So on and on it goes,

00:42:10 [Speaker Changed] It’s almost, I’d say it’s, I think this is true that to the extent you succeed in really threatening either sides prejudices, you are going to elicit a violent reaction. And so I expected the book, given the current moment where Elon Musk and Doja is trying to basically fire all these people, that it would elicit a violent reaction. And I’ve stayed off social media. I don’t know exactly how much of the violent reaction has happened, but I’ve gotten whispers of it. Like, and, and I, it’s funny, I’ve find, it’s funny to find myself, I do live in Berkeley and people love to bring that up when they’re trying to classify me. But in Berkeley, I’d be a Republican, you know, I mean, I mean that’s not hard. But I grew up, where

00:42:56 [Speaker Changed] Are you originally from? Remind people I up

00:42:57 [Speaker Changed] In New Orleans, right? I’m like a kid who, I’m like a kid who played sports and didn’t think about politics and, and like voted for Reagan once. And like John McCain was a close friend. And it’s like the idea that I’m like, oh, firmly this lefty person is insane. That it’s just insane. I mean, I, it’s, and it’s, it’s a tell for me when people try to shove me into that box. ’cause it means they’re not dealing with the story. And it happens from the other side, the blind side. There’s the whole, the the crazy left to has taken the blind side story is like, oh, Michael’s like a racist. Who’s told the white savior story? No, seriously,

00:43:36 [Speaker Changed] Seriously. I I’ve read all about that. Listen. 00:43:38 [Speaker Changed] Yeah,

00:43:38 [Speaker Changed] No, it’s amazing. How many times have you and I, this is gotta be like our eighth, 10th interview. Yeah. I have lost track. Yeah. Yeah. When I’m prepping stuff and I have my research assistant go out, Hey, find me something I haven’t, we haven’t talked about in these previous eight conversations. Well, you know, the pushback to the blindside is the whole story is fake and, and here’s the litigation and here’s the depositions. And I’m like, yeah, I’m sorry, I’m, I’m not, I’m not buying into this. This is, this is clearly someone has a, a grudge. Yeah. But,

00:44:09 [Speaker Changed] So, but, but I mean the New York Times ran a cover story like a year. Yeah, yeah. It’s like trying to, to trying to sort of, I don’t know exactly what it was trying to do, but it, what is a But between the lines is trying to say like the story, no, now looking back on it, we can say the story was false in some way. No one who was there at the time, disapproved of the story when the book came out, Michael Lore himself loved the book. All everybody around him said this like true great true story. You know, there was never, it’s been, it got reinterpreted at high woke. It got reinterpreted as a condescending story about a young black boy, which is not what it was. You’re,

00:44:48 [Speaker Changed] You’re by the way being generous to the people who have changed. Your friend Malcolm Gladwell would clearly call it revisionist history. Yeah. Because oh, we are gonna, we’re gonna rethink this in light of current morays. Yeah. And,

00:45:04 [Speaker Changed] But that’s all flipped again. So it’s, it’s, I it’s gonna, it’s gonna make a come. It’s, there’s, there’s, there was a revolution, a counter revolution and the Counter Counter revolution. It’s, it’s, but my point is that, that I have had my work filtered through people’s bizarre, perverted political prisms and certainly

00:45:26 [Speaker Changed] Happened last book going in

00:45:27 [Speaker Changed] For that. Yep. It, it gets dis it gets distorted. My views get misrepresented to the extent I have views that mostly it’s not an expression of you, it’s a telling of a story that I’m doing. And I’ve had it from both sides. And it’s not pleasant from either side. And this one, it was really clear, the side, it’s where the blow blow back’s gonna come is from the, from the right. Now here’s, it’s funny, I have a little suspicion, I feel like a little uncomfortable at, at preaching to the converted at cheap applause. I’m now finding myself on stages with this book. And of course the audience is all kind of on its side. The audience is all often liberal people, federal workers, and you know, I have them at hello. And I don’t particularly like that. I mean, it’s better than having, having them hate you.

00:46:15 But I want people to just like the story, like judge it by the quality of the thing rather than judge it by whether it confirms your prejudices. And that that’s, and it’s just increasingly, this is something that’s changed in my li my literary career in my life. It’s getting harder and harder to, to pierce people’s prejudices that they’re so, they come in so armored with some opinion that’s very half-baked, that they have possibly even uttered themselves on social media so that they’ve, they’ve, they’ve sort of like, they’re anchored in it and they don’t want to, they don’t wanna even think about anything different than what they’ve said. And so you’re, you’ve got this, you’ve got an army of kind of prejudice readers that you, that you, you have to deal with that it’s just louder than it wa it’s ever been. And it makes it hard to get the story told.

00:47:07 [Speaker Changed] What’s really ironic is that a lot of the people who are the beneficiaries of a lot of the government work, coal mine, most obvious is they’re in red states. And so there’s a little bit of a, there’s a little bit of craziness with that. But let’s talk a a about the process of the book. The, the eight or nine chapters you write. The first one you write the last one, and then the middle six are the six writers. You, you mentioned, I don’t really think of you as an editor, I think of you as a writer. What was that like having, not only to edit this, but edit friends?

00:47:46 [Speaker Changed] What I did was talk them into doing it. I recruited them and I talked to them about what stories that they might write. But after that, I left everything to David Shipley, who was who, who

00:47:59 [Speaker Changed] Oh sure. I know David.

00:48:00 [Speaker Changed] And, and who’s former Bloomberg editor. And so, so I didn’t have to do any of the line in, I didn’t touch anybody’s pieces. I, I kept, I kept great distance from that and most of them didn’t need that. Couple, couple did I do, I have often engaged with other writers and having them bounce their stories off me and talk about how they might do do it so that that’s easy for me and fun and all these writers were kind of spoiled for choice. It wasn’t like throwing up their hands and saying, what am I gonna write about? I don’t have a story. It was more, should I do A or B or C? So that, that part was fun, really fun. I can’t tell you how easy this thing was. I mean, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s surprising. I thought if when I involve, I was a little trepidatious about involving other writers.

00:48:48 ’cause I, they’re all neurotic, you know, they never know what they, no, it’s hurting catch. You never know what they’re gonna do. Right. And what they’re gonna show or, and everybody hit their marks and were kind of, nobody was trouble. They were all, they all did what they were supposed to do. And, and, and I did, you know, that was the other thing. You know, the moment, the gut check moment for me was I got ’em all riled up. Are there gonna be these great stories? Go do it. And then I realized, oh, I gotta write something. And finding my, I I thought, oh, it’s gonna be tough for me to like rise to this occasion again. And I found, I think these are two of the more interesting long form narrative stories I have ever written. And they are,

00:49:30 [Speaker Changed] And that’s saying something.

00:49:31 [Speaker Changed] It is saying, I mean, I’ve had some great material. I, I think the material I’m always good as my material, right? I can’t make, I can’t put in what God left out.

00:49:39 [Speaker Changed] Agree to disagree.

00:49:41 [Speaker Changed] No, it’s true though. It’s true. If you, I you, I really, if I have boring really bad material, it wouldn’t be very good. But this case, the ingredients were there for excellent meals and, and it just, they turned out beautifully. I’m just really proud of ’em. You know, I, I’m,

00:49:55 [Speaker Changed] I love that feeling of like, I don’t know how this is gonna, when you start, I’m intrigued by this. I don’t know where it’s gonna go. And then when you’re done, it’s like, oh, this turned out be like, I thought this was a good idea and hey, this turned out even better than I expected. It really is a, a lovely sensation as a writer. It,

00:50:14 [Speaker Changed] It is a, it is a completely lovely sensation. And the whole book, when I look back on it, it feels like the whole group was in a flow state that the whole group,

00:50:24 [Speaker Changed] Everybody,

00:50:25 [Speaker Changed] Nobody over, nobody overthought it, it people just went and did what they did. They played their best game and, and I did too. And so it was, it was really gratifying and it’s had the response to it. I mean, of course now with what’s going on, but the, you know, most of them appeared in the Washington Post over running up to the election. And the response was just, I remember the letter, the after the first one, the woman who edits the, the, the comment section said, I’ve never seen anything like this. Really? Yes. I mean, it was just, just exploded. And this is all before Trump’s elected. And now the things all together in one piece, in one place, in the, the, you know, there’s this deconstruction of the government going on, it sits in the middle of the conversation. I mean, it’s like it that the world is smiling upon this work. There’s no question,

00:51:19 [Speaker Changed] There is no question. It could not possibly be more timely. I know I only have you for a limited amount of time. There’s two questions I have to ask. One sports related. And the obvious question I always feel like I have to ask you is, Hey, what’s the ’cause what I, you recall the dinner with a bunch of people talking about SBF? Yep. So I gotta ask you, what’s the next Michael Lewis story that’s gonna be told? What story haven’t you told? What subject haven’t you touched that you’re eager to attack?

00:51:54 [Speaker Changed] Well, I kind of have a rule and the rule is I don’t, I don’t really like to talk about it. I know that it takes the energy out of it. Oh

00:52:02 [Speaker Changed] Really? 00:52:02 [Speaker Changed] Yeah.

00:52:02 [Speaker Changed] Why don’t you talk about it? That’s why I thought you just didn’t wanna reveal.

00:52:05 [Speaker Changed] No, no. It’s like I, you’re getting, you’re sort of getting the response before you’ve done the work and it’s, I, it it’s sort of, it, it’s, it’s nice to build the tension just in yourself. But having said that, I don’t have, it’s not, I mean, I just finished this and I don’t, I don’t have a book I’m writing now. I’ll tell you what things that interests me.

00:52:29 [Speaker Changed] Okay.

00:52:30 [Speaker Changed] I think what Elon Musk and Doge is doing is unbelievably interesting. Like it’s, it is a tornado ripping through the culture. And no doubt, I think that that daily journalism does a really good job of telling you just what kind of just happened on the surface. It doesn’t go below. And that there is, there’s that, that’s worth paying close attention to. Another thing that really interests me is the commercialization of youth sports, of college and college sports. Especially the, the way this radical free agency has come to co college sports. And you’ve got 15-year-old quarterbacks who have got $2 million name, image and likeness deals. And that, that, that, and it’s an environment that’s just been upended and it interests me on like, who wins, who loses, who succeeds? Who, who can coach in this environment, who can lead in this environment? I interest in college sports and a third area, and I don’t, we don’t wanna get, wanna get into this too much, but, but grief, you know, I lost a child four years ago and I’m starting to find the words to describe that experience.

00:53:37 And I don’t think it’s a book, but I don’t know. But these, but I mean, if you were here, Barry in my office, I have like, you know, 50 folders here of stuff that’s, you know, at least in the back of my mind that might lead somewhere. And you never know what’s gonna spark it. You never, I really never know what’s going to, what’s going to the call I’m gonna get, or the person I’m gonna meet, or the thing I’m gonna read where I think, oh, that’s it, that’s where I need to go. And it happens very quickly. I mean, that, it’s like slow, slow, slow, slow, slow. And then, oop, there we go. And I’m in the, I’m in the

00:54:14 [Speaker Changed] Gradually then all at once you’re quoting Hemingway. There

00:54:16 [Speaker Changed] We go. That’s how it feels. It feels gradually then all at once. And I’m in the gradual phase right now.

00:54:22 [Speaker Changed] Huh. That, that’s really interesting. I’m gonna come back to sports in a minute, but I gotta ask, so given all these files and given how this book was so different than prior books and then going Infinite was so different than Flash Boys and on and on it goes, I’m curious about what’s your writing routine like and how has it evolved over time? Like, I am intimately familiar with the Liar’s Poker story. Yeah. Which I just love that whole thing. We’ve talked about that many times. Yeah. But from kind of writing at night, getting home from Salomon Brothers to being a full-time author, how has your process changed?

00:55:04 [Speaker Changed] I had to shift when kids start, when I, we started having kids instead of a really late night life. It became a really a a, I became a morning writer. I, I may go back. Our son, our, our youngest is a senior in high school. And the minute he’s outta the house, I would not be surprised if I revert to Nocturnal Beast. It’s my, that’s my natural state. But the process, the one thing I’ve noticed that’s changed in my process is a deeper and deeper appreciation of the importance of the character of the, of, of the subjects that I, that I, the premonition is that it was a, was for me, it was a sort of a breaking, I, I, it was, it was a marking point because I, I thought, I do wanna write about this thing that’s happening co the, the covid, but I wanna do it.

00:55:52 I wanna, I wanna put the characters first. And I almost cast it. I that I, I went looking, I, I worried about the story less than I worried about the people I was writing about. I put the, and, and the same with SBF. It was like, this guy is, I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but it’s in, he’s interesting. Like, there’s a thing to do here because this person is so interested. The person will create the story. And I’ve tilted that direction. I mean, it was always there. I was, I’ve always been writing about curious characters, but I’ve gotten more adamant, I’ve gotta be more certain about the character before I start Moneyball. I started with the idea kind of, it was, it was like how they win a baseball games and oh my God, it’s inefficient. Oh my God, analytics, blah, blah, blah. But it doesn’t work unless Billy Bean is a really good character. But I didn’t, I didn’t discover how good a character he was for months. He kept himself hidden for a while. And I think I now have to feel more confident in the character before I start.

00:56:49 [Speaker Changed] Huh. And, and you know, I’m little thinking in the top, off the top of my head. So you have Billy Bean, right? A and, and then work Youi Brad Ziana at, at IEX. Yep. Danny Kahneman. You just keep working your way through each of the books to say nothing of Michael Burry e Every book leads to one of these characters, leads to this, again, this Michael Lewis character who’s quirky and thoughtful and discovers a great out of consensus truth and uses it to either affect, change or challenge the status quo. I I think that shines through this. Certainly SBF was that guy, hold aside the fraud and the of money and all that stuff. Same sort of character. And what I’m hearing from you is that you’ve become, even though the stories are always fascinating and amazing, they seem to become more and more character driven as you’ve worked

00:57:55 [Speaker Changed] Your, your no, your books. It’s it’s true. It’s true. Like your theory of my OI don’t know how you explain how Liars Poker fits into it. For example,

00:58:05 [Speaker Changed] Freshman attempt, and you’re still get, by the way, I when, when you had the anniversary of that, that book. Yeah. And I literally picked it up having not read it for 25 years, and I reread it. I’m like, oh, good writer shows potential. Not quite Michael Lewis yet. But you could see, and I agree, this is a co agree, did agree, this is a compliment. Oh, you, it, it comes through like, oh, I see exactly how all these little things, like all the seeds of Michael Lewis are planted throughout Liar’s Poker, and then it just blossoms in every subsequent book. So the first, your first book was like, all right, this is real. Oh, he’s a first time author. This is a really good book for first time author. But that author wasn’t a fully formed Michael Lewis, nor how old were you? 30 something.

00:58:59 [Speaker Changed] 20. I wrote it when I was 26.

00:59:01 [Speaker Changed] Okay. So a 26-year-old Michael Lewis is certainly should never be expected to be a 30, 40, 50, 60 something. Yeah. Michael Lewis seasoned wizened and just having lived life. So, and I say, I want you to understand, I’m saying that as a

00:59:18 [Speaker Changed] Compliment. I know. No, I, I re I had to reread it when I did the audio book. I re reread

00:59:23 [Speaker Changed] It. How Bizarre is doing an audio book, by the way? Is it not the craziest thing you’ve ever done?

00:59:28 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s, when I, going back to something I wrote 30 something years ago that was weird. And it, it was unsettling because I wanted to fix all this stuff, you know? Right.

00:59:39 [Speaker Changed] You wanna edit

00:59:40 [Speaker Changed] As you read, you know? Yeah. I know. Things I didn’t even notice at the time are just like appalling to me. Right. And, but doing my own audio books as I mostly do now, I, it’s the, the one thing I always notice is how much, how you read it differently, how you see it differently when you’re reading it aloud. That you see stuff that you wouldn’t, you don’t see when you just read, when you’re doing it on the page. And that you shouldn’t let a book out the door without having read it aloud.

01:00:09 [Speaker Changed] I I, I had an editor who used to say to me, you should take your columns and read them out loud and you’ll have a totally different feeling for it. Plus you discover half your vocabulary are things that you have never spoken out loud and don’t know how to pronounce because you’ve only read them and written them. And That’s right, that’s right. Capitalization. I took me like 10 minutes to get that word iterative. ’cause I’ve only read and written them. How often do you get to say capitalization and you always mangle it ’cause you’re, so, it’s really fun. All right. So I only have you for a few moments left. I gotta throw you a curve ball since you’ve, you’ve written about baseball, you’ve written about little league coaching, you’ve written about football, even you’ve written about basketball and Darryl Morrie, which by the way, there, there’s a book in basketball, although it may, it’s too late. ’cause Steph Curry and LeBron James are already towards the back part of their career. But I have to ask, what’s sports do you watch? What are your teams, who do you root for? And we’re recording this just as March Madness has already destroyed all the brackets.

01:01:20 [Speaker Changed] I had Drake, I had Drake over Missouri, Clemson. 01:01:24 [Speaker Changed] Oh yeah. Really?

01:01:25 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I did. I didn’t have me state, but I came close. I thought about it and then I thought, Clemson’s gonna bounce from losing to Duke. And I was wrong about that. But my bracket looks great, except for that I, it’s, right now it’s intact except for the mcd McNee state game. I watch college basketball. I watch it more. I like everybody else. During March Madness, I watch playoff baseball. I watched the Cubs, I watched the Cub. So I watched the Cub.

01:01:52 [Speaker Changed] Wait, you’re not a, you a Chicago guy?

01:01:55 [Speaker Changed] Nope, but Nico Horner? No. Nico Horner is their second baseman. And Nico was in high school with Quinn, my daughter and Quinn. And when Quinn Quinn was a pitcher on the softball team, and Nico Nico was a pitcher on the baseball team. And in the off season, Nico and his English teacher father and me and Quinn would be out there. The only ones out there working out. And so I gotta know Nico a little bit. And he’s a gr he’s this unbelievable kid. Just a great kid. And so he, he has led me to become a Cubs fan. And it’s actually a fun team. They, they, they, they’re infield before games. This is something I might want. They, they get, they sit in a circle and, and they pick a different person and everybody has to say something nice about, it’s like, it’s like, it’s a completely different model of how you like collaborate. But, you know, for, for guys in sports. But so I watch that, I watch some W-N-B-A-I watch the NBA, the Warriors are my team and have been right there.

01:02:54 [Speaker Changed] Right.

01:02:54 [Speaker Changed] You’re right. I mean, we’ve been so blessed. I think Cur is a magician. And I think Curry has been, I mean, the whole thing has just been magical to watch and the a’s used to be my team, but they’ve left me right. And football, I watch obsessively. So football, I watch more college and, and NFL football than anything. And my team in the, in the NFL is the Saints, which is, we’ve had our ups and downs, but I’ve never, you know, new Orleans has never left me. And, and in college football, I don’t really have, I like the Ole Miss Rebels. I got very attached when Michael Laura was there. I traveled around with that team, but I don’t have one team. My in basketball, the team that I like college basketball. I don’t know why, because I didn’t go there. I’m a Duke basketball addict. It’s like I’ve, you jump one way or the other with Duke, you either hate him or love him and, well,

01:03:50 [Speaker Changed] Their coach was so beloved for so many years. I think that’s,

01:03:53 [Speaker Changed] And the new coach will be too. I think Shire is fabulous. So I think it’s a different, he’s, he’s managing it in a different environment, but clearly has the ability to do it.

01:04:03 [Speaker Changed] Michael, as always, every time I, we have one of these conversations, they’re, they’re delightful. And I’m gonna just announce here, anyone who wants to come listen to Michael, discuss not just this book, but his whole career, April 7th at the Gene Rimsky Theater in Port Washington. It’s gonna be a lot of fun. I get to Pepper Mike with all sorts of questions that we haven’t gotten to here. We have been speaking with Michael Lewis. His new book is Who Is Government, the Untold Story of Public Service. If you enjoy this conversation, well be sure to check out any of the previous 500 conversations we’ve had over the past 11 years. You can find those at iTunes, spotify, bloomberg.com, YouTube, wherever you find your favorite podcasts. I would be remiss if I did not thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week. Sarah Lipsey is my audio engineer. Anna Luke is my producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. I’m Barry Riol. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

 

 

The post Transcript: Michael Lewis on ‘Who is Government’ appeared first on The Big Picture.

Futures Slide After WaPo Report Trump Seeks 20% Tariffs On Most Imports

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Futures Slide After WaPo Report Trump Seeks 20% Tariffs On Most Imports

US equity futures fell abruptly just around 6am ET, reversing earlier gains and unable to benefit from the positive risk tone in European trade, hinting at another very volatile session on Wall Street, as tomorrow's tariffs "liberation day" loomed over markets. Gold extended its winning streak, rising to another record high. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.5%, reversing an earlier gain of 0.2%, after the Washington Post reported a White House proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports. Nasdaq futures slid 0.6% as Tesla rose modestly but other Mag 7 stocks were in the red. European and Asian markets both rose. Bond yields slid 4bps, pushing the 10Y yield to 4.16% while the USD traded higher on the back of Euro weakness. Commodities are mostly flat this morning with base metals declining (copper -0.9%). Overnight, headlines were largely light, with geopolitical tension and trade policy remaining uncertain. Trump seems to dial back his criticism on Putin, per BBG article (here). We will get the Final March ISM-Mfg this morning: consensus expects the Index to print 49.5 survey vs. 50.3 prior; we also get the latest JOLTS report.

In US premarket trading, Tesla rose while fellow Magnificent Seven stocks edge lower (Tesla +3.1%, Nvidia +0.6%, Alphabet +0.5%, Meta +0.2%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -1%). Johnson & Johnson slid 3.5% in premarket trading after a judge rejected its third attempt to use bankruptcy of one of its units to end baby powder cancer claims. Delta Airlines Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. fell after Jefferies analysts cut their ratings on concern about consumer spending. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Newsmax shares jump 11%, putting the conservative media outlet’s stock on track to extend gains after it jumped 735% in its debut Monday.
  • Live Nation slip 1.5% after President Donald Trump said he will sign an executive order aimed at tackling ticket scalping, saying that it is a “big step” in dealing with an issue that “bothers” a lot of artists
  • Microvast shares surge 26% after the lithium-ion battery maker reported 2024 revenue that beat its guidance thanks to growing demand for its technology.
  • Gorilla Technology shares drop 6.4% after the analytics technology firm reported full-year results and reiterated its revenue forecast for 2025.
  • Intel slid after new CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the chipmaker will spin off assets that aren’t central to its mission and create new products including custom semiconductors to try to better align itself with customers

President Donald Trump will announce his reciprocal tariff plan at 3 p.m. on Wednesday at an event in the White House Rose Garden, but the extent of his levies remain unclear. There’s also confusion around whether the US president will take a lenient or harder tack, making investors wary of risky stock bets. 

“Investors are grappling with what could be announced this week,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen. “The range of outcomes is so wide that traders are struggling with how to price in that potential outcome.”

Futures were hit shortly after 6am after the WaPo reported that White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the United States. In a hitpiece that appears intended to spark panic and restart the selloff, the authors write that "if implemented, the plan is likely to send shock waves through the stock market and global economy. Assuming that permanent tariffs took effect in the current quarter and triggered robust retaliation by U.S. trading partners, the economy would almost immediately tumble into a recession that would last for more than a year, sending the jobless rate above 7 percent, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s, who described the results as a worst-case scenario."

Trump has touted his April 2 announcement as a “Liberation Day,” heralding the start of a more protectionist policy meant as retribution against trading partners he has long accused of “ripping off” the US. He has already placed levies on Canada, Mexico and China — the US’s three largest trading partners — as well as automobiles, steel and aluminum. Import taxes on copper could come within several weeks. He has also threatened duties on pharmaceutical, semiconductor and lumber imports.

Many fear Trump’s announcement will mark the start of lengthy and fractious negotiations with trade partners, pressuring the economy and keeping market volatility elevated. On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc is prepared to retaliate if reciprocal tariffs are imposed.

“We could get another period of potential negotiations which is just going to prolong this uncertainty and underpin further choppy price action,” Nuveen’s Cooper said.

As tariffs loom, US carmakers are lobbying the administration to exclude certain low-cost car components, Bloomberg reported. The EU said it will use a broad range of options to retaliate. An analysis by Bloomberg Economics found that a maximalist approach could add up to 28 percentage points to the average US tariff rate — resulting in a hit of 4% to US GDP.

Strategists at Citigroup said that a surge in short flows pushed net positioning for the Nasdaq back to neutral ahead of tariff announcements. Barclays strategists, meanwhile, said that hedge funds and CTAs turned short US equities and long Treasuries last month, likely improving the risk-reward outlook into April 2.

Chip stocks could be in focus after Commerce chief Lutnick signaled he could withhold promised Chips Act grants as he pushes companies in line for subsidies to expand their US projects.

Europe's Stoxx 600 rose 1.2% and is on course to snap a four-day losing streak as concerns regarding imminent US trade tariffs appear to have subsided. All 20 sectors are in the green, with auto, industrial and technology names leading gains. Goldman Sachs strategists cited a weaker growth outlook as a reason to cut their forecast for Europe’s Stoxx 600, following a similar move from the US team. The team led by Sharon Bell trimmed the 12-month target on the index to 570 points from 580. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • Europe’s biggest pharmaceutical companies advance, making healthcare the best performing Stoxx 600 subgroup, after JPMorgan analysts say potential US tariffs are expected to have a “manageable impact” on the sector
  • Gubra shares jump as much as 19% after the Danish drugmaker said interim phase 1 results for its obesity treatment candidate GUBamy were “positive.” Shares trim some gains to rise 12% at 10.27am CET
  • Greencore Group shares rise as much as 11% after the food producer said better-than-expected profit conversion means its FY25 adjusted operating profit will be ahead of current consensus. Analysts at Jefferies said the positive update
  • Enav shares jump after results met estimates and the air navigation services firm said it sees an annual revenue growth of 4.3% by 2029; Banca Akros’ Francesco Sala says the results were in line with estimates
  • UK supermarket stocks fall as a Kantar report adds to concern over increasing competitive pressures across the industry. Separately, BNPP Exane cuts earnings estimates for Tesco and Sainsbury, while downgrading the latter
  • Genmab falls as much as 5.4% after Bernstein cut its rating on the biotechnology company to underperform, saying the share price is far from fully discounting the loss of exclusivity for its Darzalex blood cancer treatment
  • Zealand Pharma shares drop as much as 6.3%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after smaller Danish drug developer Gubra said interim early-stage results for its experimental obesity treatment were positive
  • Travis Perkins shares fall as much as 13% to their lowest since June 2009 after the wholesaler said there was uncertainty regarding recovery in UK construction activity and challenging market conditions have continued
  • Interroll shares drop as much as 2.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux cut the recommendation on the Swiss industrial equipment firm to reduce from hold, citing limited near-term catalysts and high valuation

Earlier in the session, Asian equities also rose, poised to snap a three-day selloff as traders reassessed positions ahead of the planned imposition of more US tariffs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.1%, led by gains in Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong. TSMC, Tencent and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest boosts. Traders remained on edge, however, with 30-day volatility on the gauge trading around the highest level since October. Most key Asian benchmarks were in the green on Tuesday. India was an exception, with tech heavyweights sliding on concern that slower growth in the US may hurt spending by their clients. Markets in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were shut for holidays. 

The rebound doesn’t signal “much about the overall market’s direction in next 6 to 12 months,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore. “It will still be important to get the details of Trump’s announcements tomorrow given the significant - and potentially market-negative - complexities implied in the tariff framework Trump appears to be considering.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The Aussie dollar pared gains seen after the RBA stood pat on rates with a slight hawkish tinge to the statement. The Swedish krona takes top spot with a 0.5% gain.

In rates, treasuries continue to benefit from haven demand, with futures reaching session highs after the Washington Post reported a White House proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports. Additional support comes from steeper gains for bunds after euro-area inflation eased further toward the European Central Bank’s 2% target, and declines for S&P 500 futures. US yields are 2bp-4bp richer across maturities with gains led by intermediates, flattening 2s10s spread by around 2bp; 10-year is on session lows around 4.165% with bunds and gilts outperforming by 3bp and 2.5bp in the sector. European government bonds are broadly higher with UK and German 10-year borrowing costs falling 6 bps each. Traders have added to their ECB and BOE interest-rate cut bets, although there was little reaction to euro-area CPI data - the headline matched forecasts while the core rate slowed slightly more than expected. US session includes March US manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global and ISM.

In commodities, spot gold adds $10 to $3,133 having notched another record high earlier near $3,150. WTI is steady near $71.50 a barrel. Bitcoin rises over 2% to above $84,000. 

Today's US economic calendar includes March final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), February construction spending, JOLTS job openings and March ISM manufacturing (10am) and Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). ed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed’s Barkin discussing monetary policy and the economic outlook (9am).

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.5%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +1.2%, DAX +1.5%, CAC 40 +0.9%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.18%
  • VIX +0.1 points at 22.39
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1274.63
  • euro little changed at $1.0806
  • WTI crude -0.3% at $71.23/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • The US plans to extend the 2017 tax cuts, making them permanent and adding Trump’s campaign promises like eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News. BBG
  • Howard Lutnick may withhold Chips Act grants to push companies to expand their US projects, people familiar said.  Lutnick aims to generate tens of billions of dollars in additional investment commitments without increasing the size of federal grants. Donald Trump created a new office to manage the Chips Act’s funds and speed up some investments in the US. BBG
  • President Trump signed an executive order establishing the United States Investment Accelerator which establishes an office within the Department of Commerce meant to facilitate and accelerate investments above USD 1bln in the US, while the White House said the Investment Accelerator is to administer the CHIPS program office.
  • Trump signed an executive order aimed at protecting fans from 'exploitative ticket scalping' and reforming the US live entertainment ticketing industry, according to Reuters.
  • Republicans could be poised to deal a symbolic blow to President Donald Trump’s trade policy, with several GOP senators indicating they planned to join Democrats in a Tuesday vote to block blanket tariffs on Canada (although the bill will probably never become law). Politico
  • President Trump said that he had settled on a plan for his latest batch of tariffs expected this week but didn’t reveal what he had decided, after his economic team struggled to coalesce around a remade U.S. trade strategy. He wants to both raise revenue with tariffs and use them as leverage to get other nations to lower their own duties, or make other policy changes.
  • Boeing (BA) slows the production of 737 Max to 31 craft per month (current 38) to keep from derailing the assembly line, via Air Current; further slowing wing production.
  • Eurozone CPI for Mar comes in a bit cooler than anticipated on a core basis (+2.4% vs. the Street +2.4% and down from +2.6% in Feb) while headline was inline at +2.2% (down from +2.3% in Feb). BBG
  • The European Union said it will use a broad range of options to retaliate against the US if President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs on the bloc this week. “We do not necessarily want to retaliate,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday. “If necessary we have a strong plan to retaliate and will use it.” BBG
  • China's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in March, buoyed by stronger demand and robust export orders, a private-sector survey showed on Tuesday. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in the previous month, surpassing analyst expectations of 51.1. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction. RTRS
  • China has kicked off large-scale military and coastguard exercises around Taiwan, the latest round in Beijing’s escalating campaign to assert its claims of sovereignty and suppress the island nation’s efforts to preserve its de facto independence. The drills on Tuesday came as Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te seeks to improve military and civilian preparedness for a potential Chinese attach and strengthen society to defend against espionage and other infiltration from China, which last month he called a “hostile foreign force.” FT
  • China, Japan and South Korea agreed to jointly respond to U.S. tariffs, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media said on Monday, an assertion Seoul called "somewhat exaggerated", while Tokyo said there was no such discussion. The state media comments came after the three countries held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the Asian export powers brace against U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. RTRS

Tariffs/Trade

  • US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday.
  • US automakers seek to exclude low-value car parts from tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
  • US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio spoke to his Mexican counterpart regarding the US automobile industry, while Rubio thanked Mexico for efforts to reduce illegal immigration and continuing to accept deportation flights.
  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets.
  • UK Trade Secretary Reynolds says, "we are hopeful that Trump's tariffs will be reversed within weeks, or months"; adds, "It appears tomorrow there'll be no country in the world exempt from the initial announcements", via BBC Breakfast.
  • EU Commission President von der Leyen says the bloc has the power to push back against US tariffs; all instruments are on the table for countermeasures; EU is open to negotiations on trade. Says EU needs to take down the remaining barriers in the single market. Adds, EU has a strong plan to retaliate if necessary and will use it.
  • UK PM Starmer says discussions on an economic deal with the US are "well advanced".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher as markets recovered from the recent sell-off and with sentiment helped by data releases although gains were capped as tariff uncertainty persists heading into April 2nd 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs. ASX 200 advanced with broad gains seen across sectors, while there was a muted reaction to the RBA rate decision  in which the central bank maintained the Cash Rate at 4.10% as unanimously forecast and provided little clues for future policy. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open after data showed a decline in the Unemployment Rate and a mostly better-than-expected Tankan survey although the index then pulled back and gradually reversed the gains after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 36,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned after stronger-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data.

Top Asian News

  • Some Chinese banks have reportedly started raising interest rates amid growing bad consumer loans, weeks after cutting rates, according to Reuters sources; the move is expected to weigh on Beijing's efforts to stimulate the economy
  • RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.10%, as expected, while it stated the outlook remains uncertain, underlying inflation is moderating and sustainably returning inflation to target is the priority. RBA noted that monetary policy is well placed to respond to international developments if they were to have material implications for Australian activity and inflation, and noted that the board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive. Furthermore, it stated the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the board is cautious about the outlook, while the board needs to be confident that this progress will continue so that inflation returns to the midpoint of the target band on a sustainable basis.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said in the post-meeting press conference there is a chance of more strength in the economy than seems and the board will continue to look at the data, while she said the board did not discuss a rate cut and holding rates was a consensus decision. Bullock also stated they have to be careful not to get ahead of themselves on policy and that the board has not made up its mind on a May move, while she said they are not endorsing the market path on future rate cuts. Furthermore, she said the board did not open the door to a May rate cut and there is more economic data to come, as well as updated forecasts for the May meeting.
  • RBNZ said the Board is in the process of preparing a recommendation for the appointment of a Governor for six months and will be sending it to the minister soon, while it continues business as usual with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby as acting Governor and CEO until such time the minister makes an appointment.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.9%) are entirely in the green, as the region recovers from the prior day’s hefty losses. Indices have gradually climbed higher as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, but with no clear outperformer and with gains fairly broad based given the risk tone. Healthcare leads the pack today, lifted by strength in AstraZeneca (+1.5%) after it reported positive trial results for its cholesterol drug, which has boosted hopes of another blockbuster drug. Consumer Products is a little higher today, with clothing brands benefiting in tandem with post-earning strength in PVH (+15.8% pre-market) which beat Q4 analyst expectations.

Top European News

  • BoE's Greene says slack is opening up in the UK labour market, happy with central forecast for inflation, disinflation continues to be underway. There is a risk that productivity growth recovery does not happen as the BoE assumes. Rising UK public inflation expectations are concerning, "I think they remain anchored". Dollar's role as a reserve currency could be undermined by the current uncertainty.
  • ECB's Rehn says if the data verifies the baseline, the right reaction in monetary policy should be to cut in April, via Politico
  • ECB's Cipollone says "Digitalisation is driving economic progress and transforming the way we make retail payments".

FX

  • DXY is currently slightly softer but with FX markets broadly in a holding pattern in the run up to Wednesday's "Liberation Day". Ahead of which, US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with "multiple" tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN's Lawrence. Today's US data docket includes JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing.
  • EUR is trivially firmer vs. the USD following an indecisive session yesterday whereby markets digested softer-than-expected German inflation data and ECB sources. On the latter, Bloomberg reported that several ECB officials are still wavering on whether to cut interest rates next month.
  • USD/JPY has failed to sustain a move above the 150 mark as markets digested mostly better-than-expected data via the latest unemployment and Tankan metrics. USD/JPY has delved as low as 149.51 but is some way off Monday's trough at 148.69.
  • GBP is flat vs. the USD with fresh macro drivers for the UK on the light side aside from non-incremental comments from BoE's Greene that slack is opening up in the UK labour market and disinflation is continuing. Elsewhere, UK PM Starmer noted that discussions on an economic deal with the US are "well advanced". Cable is currently holding above the 1.29 mark and within yesterday's 1.2885-1.2972 bounds.
  • Antipodeans are steady vs. the USD with little sustained follow-through from the RBA rate decision. As expected, the RBA held the Cash Rate at 4.1% as unanimously forecast and provided little clues for future policy. In the follow-up press conference, Governor Bullock noted the board did not discuss a rate cut - which did help to lift the Aussie slightly.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1775 vs exp. 7.2606 (Prev. 7.1782).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are firmer, and while the move is significant on the session, USTs are yet to surpass the top-end of yesterday’s 111-04 to 111-22+ band. Overall, the narrative remains much the same as markets countdown to "Liberation Day" and await any possible announcements/details on the eve of it. Ahead of that, traders will await US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS data.
  • A similar narrative to USTs with Bunds firmer and at a 129.42 peak but shy of Monday’s 129.59 best. If that is surpassed, resistance features at 130.00 before 130.93 from mid-January. The bid this morning in EGBs, and fixed generally, comes as the market is seemingly, for now at least, more concerned with the growth implications than the inflation implications of the looming US measures. Tariffs/trade aside, the morning has seen modest downward revisions to March’s Manufacturing PMIs - though this move was not sustained. And on the inflation front, EZ HICP printed in-line on the headline and cooler than expected for the core and super-core Y/Y. Additionally, the Services Y/Y figure moderated to 3.4% (prev. 3.7%) - despite the cooler figures, a hawkish move was seen.
  • Gilts are bid but, unlike its peers above, has managed to eclipse Monday’s 92.10 high to a 92.45 peak for the week. A level which encounters resistance from earlier in the month at 92.46, 92.48 and 92.56. Newsflow has unsurprisingly been focused on tariffs, with reports indicating that the UK-US trade deal has broad agreement and is ready to be signed once a few details are ironed out. Commentary from BoE's Greene has had little impact on UK-paper.
  • Germany sells EUR 3.418bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.20% 2027 Schatz: b/c 3.5x (prev. 2.4x), average yield 2.01% (prev. 2.22%), retention 24.04% (prev. 22.29%)

Commodities

  • A choppy session for the crude complex this morning. Price action was initially downward, giving back some of the prior day's upside, but recent CPC pipeline related newsflow has sparked a paring of this pressure and lifted the benchmarks marginally into the green . Reuters reported that Kazakhstan will have to start reducing oil production within days as CPC pipeline reduces intake. WTI May resides in a USD 71.27-71.75/bbl range while Brent June sits in a current USD 74.58-75.02/bbl parameter.
  • Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold continuing to hold near record highs, whilst spot silver is subdued and spot palladium coat-tails the gains across the Auto sector this morning. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,120.12-3,149.09/oz range.
  • Mostly firmer trade across base metals, with the complex buoyed by the better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data overnight which bodes well for the demand side of the equation. 3M LME copper currently trades in a narrow USD 9,712.40-9,794.00/t range.
  • Kazakhstan will have to start reducing oil production within days as CPC pipeline reduces intake, according to Reuters citing multiple sources; CPC repairs will take more than a month, according to a singular source.
  • Russian oil product exports from Black Sea Port of Tuapse planned at 0.864mln tons in April (prev. scheduled 0.798mln tons in March).
  • Norway's Gassco sees higher gas deliveries Y/Y this summer due to less maintenance.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israeli military said it attacked a Hezbollah target in Beirut's southern suburbs.
  • Iran complained to the UN about reckless and belligerent remarks by US President Trump and said the remarks are a flagrant violation of international law and core principles of the UN Charter, according to a letter seen by Reuters. Iran said it is deeply regrettable and concerning that the US wields military power as its primary tool of coercion to advance political and geopolitical objectives, while it warned it will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the US or Israel against its sovereignty, territorial integrity or national interests.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Ukraine's Foreign Minister says one round of consultations with the US has taken place on the new draft of the minerals deal, the process continues, the text entails strong presence of American business in Ukraine, which contributes to security.
  • US President Trump said he wants to see Russian President Putin make a deal and wants to make sure Putin follows through, while Trump added he doesn't want to do secondary tariffs but noted secondary tariffs are something that he would do if Putin doesn't do the job.
  • Russia Defence Ministry says Ukraine continues its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, via Interfax; Ukraine attacked Russia's energy infrastructure twice in the last 24hrs.

Geopolitics: China

  • Chinese military conducted joint army, navy and rocket force exercises around Taiwan, while it stated that sinister moves of Taiwan separatists will cause disaster for themselves and called Taiwan President Lai a parasite in a video related to the drill.
  • Taiwan senior officials noted that more than 10 Chinese military ships approached close to Taiwan's 24 nautical mile contiguous zone on Tuesday morning and Taiwan dispatched its own warships to respond, while Taiwan's presidential official strongly condemned China's military drills and said China is widely recognised by the international community as a troublemaker.
  • De facto US embassy in Taiwan said it is closely monitoring China's military activity near Taiwan and that China has shown that it is not a responsible actor and has no problem putting the region’s security and prosperity at risk. It also stated the US will continue to support Taiwan in the face of China’s military, economic, informational, and diplomatic pressure campaign.

Geopolitics: Other

  • US President Trump responded that there is communication when asked about North Korea and commented that he will probably do something on North Korea.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is taking steps to impose visa restrictions on Chinese officials substantially involved in policies related to access for foreigners to Tibetan areas.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45 am: Mar F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.85, prior 49.8
  • 10:00 am: Feb Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.16%
  • 10:00 am: Feb JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7655k, prior 7740k
  • 10:00 am: Mar ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.5, prior 50.3
  • 10:00 am: Mar ISM Prices Paid, est. 64.6, prior 62.4

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy April Fools' Day. I could make up a wild story here but it might be boring relative to realities these days. Having said that, 15 years ago today I went on a first date with my wife. I think she now thinks that there has been a decade and a half long April Fools' joke at her expense. So thoughts are with her this morning.

For US markets Q1 seemed like a bad joke as the rest of the world left it behind in equity terms. Henry will soon be releasing our regular performance review, running through how different assets fared over the quarter just gone. It’s fair to say it was a historic period for markets, as the combination of US tariffs, the European fiscal shift, and DeepSeek’s AI model led to a huge reappraisal about the near-term outlook. Indeed, the S&P 500 has just posted its worst month in two years. However, European equities did very well by comparison, with the DAX up +11.32% YTD thanks to the fiscal impulse. And given the general risk-off tone and stagflationary fears, gold put in its best quarterly performance since 1986. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Some of those Q1 trends did reverse yesterday amid a jittery quarter-end session as investors await the US reciprocal tariffs announcement tomorrow. The S&P 500 recovered from -1.65% down shortly after the open, when it was briefly back in correction territory, to close +0.55% higher, while the STOXX 600 (-1.51%) fell to a two-month low. On the US side there must have been some quarter end flows that made a difference, especially as US equity futures are back down nearly half a percent this morning.

The losses for the STOXX 600 means that it has now unwound over half of its YTD gains, having risen +5.18% since the start of the year, though it is still way ahead of the S&P 500’s -4.59% decline. And even as US equities outperformed, the gains for the S&P were led by defensive sectors with consumer staples (+1.63%) leading the way. By contrast, the Magnificent 7 (-0.41%) moved lower, while the VIX (+0.62pts) rose for a fourth consecutive session, reaching a two-week high of 22.28. And over in Japan, yesterday saw the Nikkei fall -4.05%, marking its biggest daily decline since September. This morning it's given up most of its attempts to rally back and is only just above flat.

In terms of the upcoming tariff announcement, we still don’t know which countries they’ll be imposed on and what rate. It's fair to say that the administration might not have the final plan ready as yet. Yesterday, White House Press Secretary Leavitt said a planned Rose Garden announcement would feature “country-based” tariffs, with further sectoral duties to come later, while last night Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Fox News that Trump will announce the reciprocal tariffs at 3pm EST on Wednesday. Bessent also said that he was working with Republicans in Congress to deliver Trump’s fiscal campaign promises, including “No tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime”.

A big concern for investors is that the US tariffs will be met by retaliatory moves, which in turn could lead to a further round of escalation as the US seek to respond. So that’s meant inflation expectations have continued to rise, with the 1yr US inflation swap (+13.3bps) yesterday hitting another two-year high of 3.25%. Other traditional inflation hedges have done well on the back of that, with gold prices (+1.24%) moving up to another record high of $3,124/oz. And matters weren’t helped yesterday by a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+1.51%) moving up to a one-month high of $74.74/bbl. So collectively, that’s served to exacerbate existing concerns about inflationary pressures.

Those losses cascaded across global markets, and mounting fears of a US downturn led to a fresh decline in Treasury yields. For instance, the 2yr yield (-2.8bps) fell back to 3.89%, whilst the 10yr yield (-4.3bps) fell to 4.21% with a further -1.15bps fall in Asia so far. That came as investors dialled up the likelihood of Fed rate cuts over the rest of the year, with the amount priced in by the December meeting up +2.7bps on the day to 76bps. Those declines in yields would have been even greater were it not for the move up in inflation expectations, as the 2yr real yield (-4.5bps) hit a two-and-a-half year low of 0.60%.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds had initially rallied as well, but those moves were pared back after Bloomberg reported that ECB officials were questioning whether they should cut rates again at the next meeting. They’ve already delivered 150bps of easing since last June, but inflation is still lingering slightly above target, and the article said that policymakers were thinking about a pause given the uncertainty over tariffs and higher military spending. There was no sourcing in the article so its not clear it was anything other than observing the facts as they stand. Regardless of this, yields on 10yr bunds (+1.0bps), OATs (+2.1bps) and BTPs (+1.9bps) had all moved slightly higher. An April cut by the ECB was 73% priced by the close, having been at nearly 90% early in the session but falling as low as 65% after the Bloomberg story broke.

Earlier in the day, we also had the latest inflation data from Germany, where the EU-harmonised print surprised on the downside at +2.3% (vs. +2.4% expected). That followed last week’s releases showing downside surprises in France and Spain, so those collectively pointed on the downside. However, the Italian reading yesterday was stronger than expected, moving up to +2.1% (vs. +1.8% expected), so that pointed in the other direction. We’ll get the Euro Area-wide numbers today, so that’ll be an important input for the ECB’s next decision in just over two weeks’ time.

Staying on Europe, there was significant political news out of France, as the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen was given a five-year election ban after being convicted of embezzling EU funds. That means she wouldn’t be able to run in the next presidential election in 2027, but Le Pen’s lawyer said that she’ll appeal the verdict. Later in the evening, Le Pen criticised the ruling as a “political decision”, saying she would fight for the right to run for President.

Asian equities are recovering this morning after Wall Street’s overnight gains but performance is mixed. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.89%) is leading gains with the Hang Seng (+1.06%) also trading notably higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei's (+0.20%) recovery is disappointing after yesterdays -4.05% rout where it hit a six-month low. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.92%) is also trading higher after the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged while Chinese equities are edging higher with the CSI (+0.29%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.59%) both trading in the green as China’s factory activity beat forecasts (more below). S&P 500 (-0.40%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.45%) futures are moving back lower.

As was widely expected, the RBA left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.1% at the conclusion of the April monetary policy meeting this morning. In an accompanying statement the central bank sounded cautious about the outlook and reiterated that returning inflation sustainably to target remains the highest priority, thus failing to give clarity on when the next rate cut might arrive. Attention now turns to the next two-day meeting on 19-20 May, where markets expect a second cut after February’s 25bps cut, which was the first reduction since late 2020.

Coming back to China, manufacturing activity grew more than expected to a four-month high as the Caixin manufacturing PMI hit 51.2 in March (v/s 50.6 expected) due to a sustained rise in new orders. It follows the prior month’s reading of 50.8. The Caixin data comes after the official PMI over the weekend, which showed the manufacturing sector grew a bit more than expected in March.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the ISM manufacturing for March, and the JOLTS report for February. Elsewhere, we’ll get the global manufacturing PMIs for April, the Euro Area flash CPI print for March, and the Euro Area unemployment rate for February. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Vujcic, Cipollone and Lane, along with the Fed’s Barkin and the BoE’s Greene. And in the political sphere, there are two special elections taking place for the US House of Representatives in Florida.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 08:26

Sen. Chuck Grassley Introduces 'Judicial Relief Clarification Act' To Rein In Activist Judges

Zero Hedge -

Sen. Chuck Grassley Introduces 'Judicial Relief Clarification Act' To Rein In Activist Judges

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) introduced a proposal  Monday to rein in judicial injunctions like the ones currently hampering President Donald Trump’s popular MAGA agenda.

The Judicial Relief Clarification Act of 2025 (JRCA) would “limit federal court orders to parties directly before the court, ending the practice of universal injunctions,” according to a Judiciary Committee Majority press release. The bill also aims to clarify the constitutional role of the judicial branch.

According to a Judiciary Committee fact sheet, the JRCA:

1. Forbids federal courts from issuing sweeping relief against the government to persons not before the court—ending the practice of universal injunctions and diminishing the
incentive to forum shop for a sympathetic judge.
2. Requires parties seeking universal relief against the government to use the class action process to show that class-wide relief is proper.
3. Makes temporary restraining orders (TROs) immediately appealable, strengthening appellate review.
4. Amends the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) and Declaratory Judgment Act to clarify that courts may only issue relief under those statutes to parties before the court.

Sen. Grassley will hold a hearing Wednesday to discuss his  “legislative solutions to the bipartisan problem of universal injunctions.”

The proposal comes after a slew of district court rulings and orders blocked multiple key Trump administration objectives, including efforts to end birthright citizenship, terminate federal grants, end DEI initiatives and use a wartime law to deport criminal illegal immigrants.

President Trump has railed against the rulings, accusing the judges of usurping his executive authorities.

In an oped in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend, Grassley wrote: “these nationwide injunctions have become a favorite tool for those seeking to obstruct Mr. Trump’s agenda.”

More than two-thirds of all universal injunctions issued over the past 25 years were levied against the first Trump administration. In the past two months alone, judges have issued at least 15 universal injunctions against the administration—surpassing the 14 President Biden faced throughout his four-year term.

“These decisions also place undue stress on the judicial system by inserting political calculation into the selection of the judges and the resolution of disputes,” the senator wrote.

Grassley pointed out that this judicial overreach has occurred amid an NBC poll showing that “more registered voters believe our country is on the right track than at any other point in the past two decades.”

“For a number of years, but particularly in the last few months, we’ve increasingly seen sweeping orders from individual district judges that dictate national policy,” he said in a statement, Monday.

“Our Founders saw an important role for the judiciary, but the Constitution limits judges to exercising power over ‘cases’ or ‘controversies.’ Judges are not policymakers, and allowing them to assume this role is very dangerous,” Grassley said. “The Judicial Relief Clarification Act clarifies the scope of judicial power and resolves illegitimate judicial infringement upon the executive branch. It’s a commonsense bill that’s needed to provide long-term constitutional clarity and curb district courts’ growing tendency to overstep by issuing sweeping, nationwide orders.”

The bill is cosponsored by Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.).

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 08:05

First Views Of Earth's Polar Regions from SpaceX's Dragon Capsule As Fram2 Mission Underway

Zero Hedge -

First Views Of Earth's Polar Regions from SpaceX's Dragon Capsule As Fram2 Mission Underway

Seventeen days after Elon Musk's SpaceX successfully rescued two stranded astronauts from the International Space Station, the rocket company that dominates the space race launched a crew of four private astronauts—led by a crypto entrepreneur—on the first-ever human spaceflight to orbit Earth over its poles.

SpaceX's sixth private astronaut flight (called "Fram2") blasted off atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida late Monday night, sending the Crew Dragon capsule Resilience into a polar orbit.

Fram2 is commanded by Chinese-born bitcoin investor Chun Wang and joined by vehicle commander Jannicke Mikkelsen from Norway, pilot Rabea Rogge of Germany, and Australian medical officer and mission specialist Eric Phillips.

SpaceX's website outlined more specifics of the polar-orbiting mission:

During their multi-day mission, Dragon and the crew will explore Earth from a polar orbit and fly over Earth's polar regions for the first time. They will also conduct 22 research designed to help advance humanity's capabilities for long-duration space exploration and understanding of human health in space. Throughout Fram2's time on-orbit, the crew are planning to take the first x-ray in space, perform exercise studies to maintain muscle and skeletal mass, and grow mushrooms in microgravity. Additionally, after safely returning to Earth, the crew plans to exit from the Dragon spacecraft without additional medical and operational assistance, helping researchers characterize the ability of astronauts to perform unassisted functional tasks after short and long durations in space.

The Fram2 private mission is entirely independent of government support, a testament to how the private space industry continues progressing, proving it can do space better, faster, and leaner than bloated and wasteful government programs. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 07:45

Canadians Leaf USA Out Of Travel Plans To Protest Trump

Zero Hedge -

Canadians Leaf USA Out Of Travel Plans To Protest Trump

Pissed off Canadians are skipping trips to the United States over President Donald Trump's trade policies and 'disrespect' - after Trump's repeated calls to annex the northern neighbor as America's 51st state, CNBC reports.

Canadians hold an “Elbows Up” protest against U.S. tariffs and other policies by U.S. President Donald Trump, at Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto, Ontario, Canada March 22, 2025.

When reached by the outlet for comment, a White House spokesperson said that "everybody wants to come to President Trump’s America," adding that Canadians "will no longer have to endure the inconveniences of international travel when Canada becomes our 51st state," while "Europeans are eager to enjoy the Golden Age of America if they so choose to."

The boycott on travel comes amid a $50 billion travel deficit in the United States - just weeks after former Canadian PM Justin Trudeau encouraged Canadians to "choose Canada," and suggested "changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer."

According to the US Travel Association, there is "a question of America’s welcomeness, a slowing U.S. economy and recent safety concerns.

"These challenges are real and demand decisive action," they continued, adding that it is "actively working with the White House and Congress to advance policies that drive economic expansion and keep the U.S. competitive on the global stage."

Worldwide Trend

Meanwhile, it's more than just Canada, as Statista reports. According to Ceylan Yeğinsu of the New York Times, travelers around the world are being put off by the Trump administration’s recent actions, including its new policies and rhetoric. Where the research firm Tourism Economics had initially predicted international travel to the U.S. to grow by 9 percent this year, it recently downgraded its forecast to a 5 percent contraction.

Some Europeans are among those rethinking their trips to the United States in protest against Trump. According to National Travel and Tourism Office data, there was an 8.5 percent decrease in the number of German travelers arriving to the U.S. between February 2025 and February 2024, a 5.6 percent decline in French travelers and a 3.9 percent decline among other countries in Western Europe. The United Kingdom and Italy show a different trend, however, with a 6.9 percent and 0.1 percent increase, respectively, between February 2024 and 2025.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 06:55

Germany's Stern Magazine Calls For Conscription Of Young People To Take Up Arms "To Defend Diversity" In Pro-War Propaganda Piece

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Stern Magazine Calls For Conscription Of Young People To Take Up Arms "To Defend Diversity" In Pro-War Propaganda Piece

Via Remix News,

Stern Magazine is calling for mass conscription of German youths to join the army, including to ensure the defense of “freedom and diversity.” The reaction to the article has been harsh to say the least, with hundreds of negative comments directed at Stern.

The article, entitled “Others no longer defend us? Then we must do it ourselves!” claims that “the USA no longer wants to protect Germany. This brings a bitter realization: Our unbearable complacency must end.”

The solution? Start drafting German youth to fight the future wars. The author, Tilman Gerwien, a German male noticeable well past the age of someone who might typically be drafted, says that the days of a “dollhouse-like Bullerbü” are over and “we have to grow up.” He details the left’s traditional stance against conscription, which saw German youths demanding American troops leave Germany, was “not only a matter of conscience, but also a lifestyle.” He noted that at demonstrations against NATO, “people hopped around in peace-loving spirits, chanting ‘Out of NATO, into fun!'” All of this has to end, according to Gerwien.

There is no way to know if Gerwien was ever a part of these previous protests or ever shared those sentiments at one time, but it is notable that he is now old enough to not have to face the draft himself. Lucky him.

He is a part of the trend of the German establishment left suddenly becoming gung-ho in recent years, especially since Putin invaded Ukraine. The old Green Party ideals of removing NATO from Europe and pursuing an anti-war agenda have been jettisoned. In this sense, much of the establishment left has become outright hawkish. With Trump now in office, the hawkishness from this German establishment has now gone into overdrive, with the Greens joining forces with the CDU to promote a defense-oriented Germany.

Will Germans fight for the “New Germany?”

Of course, the “New Germany” does not exactly have people lining up to fight for it, and that is a real problem for the establishment. Much of the conservative youth no longer see a Germany they would lay down their lives for, and in fact, the “New Germany” openly despises these AfD-voting youths, and maybe even sending them to the front would solve this “problem.”

Meanwhile, the left-wing youth is coddled and mostly pacifist. This “Spiegel/Stern left” may like the idea of soldiers going off to fight on their behalf, but they don’t actually want to do the fighting themselves. The old notions of “honor” and “heroes” have been widely mocked and denigrated by the German elite, which Stern acknowledges,

So, who will fight?

Well, in the end, there doesn’t have to be a “reason” for conscription. Youths in Germany, just as in Ukraine, will be forced to the front for the likes of Stern’s editorial staff when push comes to shove, but it’s a nice thought for these journalists that these youths will at least think they have something worth dying for.

So, what should they die for? Stern addresses this problem, as the very atomized and multicultural society it promotes reduces the will for Germans to die face down in some trench at the frontline.

The magazine writes, “Taking all of this into account, Germany faces a tremendous challenge. We must dare to embrace more ‘heroism’ – and less hedonism. More communal commitment and less responsibility-avoiding individualism. And be careful not to lose sight of what we want to defend: freedom and diversity. If the pendulum swings too far toward individualization, we become defenseless. If the focus is too strongly on defense, the ghosts of the past are awakened, keyword ‘national community.’ It’s important to find the balance.”

See, Stern doesn’t want right-wing people who love their country fighting a patriotic war at the front. This could lead to people voting for the AfD, and then… Hitler will come back. This is the logic of Der Spiegel, Stern, and many others.

They instead want iPhone-wielding hipsters who love diversity dying in the trenches. These iPhone-wielding youths should be at the front to defend guys like Gerwien so they can go to Vietnamese restaurants, attend book readings from African authors, and enjoy art installations from Brazilian LGBT activists.

German youth should die for all the above, not for the “German people,” or the “German flag,” or “hearth and home” or any of that other fascist nonsense that typically united nations and led men to lay down their lives for each other and their families.

Stern also appears relatively sure this youth will indeed be dying as well, saying they “will have to take up arms at some point.”

“At the very latest, when conscription comes into effect, ‘they’ (the Bundeswehr) will be all of us – even if only because our children and grandchildren will have to take up arms at some point,” writes Stern. “This raises the question: What are we prepared to fight for and, when push comes to shove, to die for? The fact that we are being asked to answer for the first time in decades is the true ‘turning point.'”

However, as Stern writes, German youths are not just fighting for diversity, but also for “freedom.” 

Notably, if you have any problem with “German freedom,” such as Germany’s harsh free speech laws, then your freedom should be curtailed with a visit from the police, as is increasingly the case in Germany.

Of course, freedom and democracy are tied together, and German youths should be fighting at the front to defend a government increasingly intent on banning the second most popular party in the country, the AfD, which just hit a new polling high this week at 23.5 percent. But freedom also means banning political parties, and we must all fight for the right to ban political parties whose opinions we do not agree with, especially if that party is opposed to the war in Ukraine, which all German youth (future soldiers fighting for diversity) should support..

It all sounds very confusing, but “freedom and diversity” certainly sound good as long as we don’t look at the details.

It is also worth noting that despite Germans being called to “defend diversity,” the cover of Stern is remarkably lacking in diversity. It’s two White people, a boy and girl.

Considering Germany’s youth are becoming more and more diverse, one would think that it would have been the perfect opportunity to feature a Black or Arab person. Go to any clothing store in Germany or any other Western country, and the classic motif of the Black male paired with the White female is ubiquitous. However, as those on the right often point out, when the threat of real wars start, the White males suddenly start appearing more and more frequently in the recruiting ads of the armed forces.

Laughably, the Stern call to action quotes military historian Sönke Neitzel, who told the magazine in support of conscription: “What are we waiting for?” “That 100 percent of the population is in favor of it?” He claims people won’t like it, but it simply has to happen.

Well, maybe they could at least wait until there is 20 percent of the population supporting such measures? A new Forsa poll shows that only 17 percent of Germans are willing to take up arms and die for their country. In short, Stern’s vision of an army of conscripts ready to die for Germany sounds a bit like Hitler at the end of the war, who was completely separated from reality and moving armies around on the map that did not exist.

Of those 17 percent, how many of them are older people or women who actually would not take up arms or even be forced to take up arms should the call to war come?

As Remix News reported in the past, the Ukrainian army has had something the German army did not, which was a patriotic, hardcore, right-wing element that was willing to “die for Ukraine.” Not all of these soldiers were neo-Nazis, but many certainly were. A huge number of these soldiers are already dead, and the war may be coming to an end. Ironically, Ukraine may end up more like Germany in the end with the death of these soldiers, as calls by Ukrainian business leaders to accept the mass importation of migrants to replace the soldiers lost are becoming more of a mainstream idea.

Germany’s push for conscription will continue, with hundreds of billions being directed into weapons purchases. The only problem is that Germans are not going to want to fly these fighter jets or drive these tanks.

As the X comments note, Germans do not seem especially enthusiastic. One user writes: “Why should you fight for a country that you can’t even be proud of?”

Another responds: “You’ve failed with your miserable war training and war mentality. Only 17% of Germans want to defend Germany with weapons in hand, according to the latest Forsa survey. You won’t have my children, you miserable indoctrinators and arms industry lobbyists!”

Another asks how old the boy on the cover of the magazine is: “Shouldn’t the question be: Would you give your child? How old is the boy on the cover? 17? Man, man, man… This is on the level of ‘Jesus would have been vaccinated.'

Some do not even want people to buy Stern, period.

“No—don’t fight! And don’t buy that stupid state propaganda magazine either,” wrote another.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 06:30

Denmark Squandered Defenses Arming Ukraine, With Little Left To Defend Greenland

Zero Hedge -

Denmark Squandered Defenses Arming Ukraine, With Little Left To Defend Greenland

Denmark has taken pride in being among the top four military donors to Ukraine over the past more than three years of war. The tiny Scandinavian country has consistently touted its huge financial contribution to the fight against Russia. 

"The information from NATO underlines that military support for Ukraine is an absolute priority for the government. In my view, this is a clear expression of Denmark's support for Ukraine as long as it is needed. And it is a support that we in Denmark can be proud of," Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen recently said.

But now Denmark has found itself embroiled in the unusual Greenland controversy, which escalated when President Trump said he has refused to take "military force off the table" in discussions on a potential US acquisition of Greenland.

Bohdanahowitzers - part of the Danish-funded artillery. Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.

Trump talking annexation of what is still a territory of Denmark - which itself is a NATO ally of the United States - is deeply awkward to say the least.

"Many accusations and many allegations have been made. And of course we are open to criticism,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said in the wake of Vice President JD Vance's provocative visit to Greenland. "But let me be completely honest: we do not appreciate the tone in which it is being delivered. This is not how you speak to your close allies. And I still consider Denmark and the United States to be close allies."

Russian sources are now highlighting the fact that Denmark has "gambled its security away to arm another country 1,000 km away" amid the ongoing spat over Greenland's fate with the US.

For example Sputnik has pointed out that "While it has a population of just 6 millino and a $428 billion GDP, Denmark has consistently led the Western alliance in the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, with its arms deliveries the FOURTH LARGEST after the US, Germany and the UK, totaling $8.2 billion, and non-military aid adding up to $1.15 billion."

The Russian state media outlet featured the following list:

Denmark has cleared out its arms caches of up to 100% of certain weapons to arm Kiev, including:

  • 19 F-16s (over 60% of Denmark’s fleet)
  • All 19 (100%) of its CAESAR howitzers
  • At least 30 of 195 Leopard 1A5 and 14 of 107 of Leopard 2A4 tanks
  • Over 50 of 125 M113 APCs
  • 500 Stinger MANPADs, 2,700 LAW anti-tank weapons
  • Harpoon coastal defense systems, Marder IFVs, engineering equipment, radars, drones, small arms, and soldiers’ gear, from uniforms to field hospitals, living containers and first aid.

The publication then concludes, "Who knew that blowing your defense capabilities on a proxy war against Russia could come with serious risks?"

Danish support for Ukraine broken down by year, via the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark:

Indeed, in this ongoing major diplomatic spat with the Trump administration, which also involves disagreement over who can provide and sustain better Arctic defense, Denmark now has less military muscle to back up its claims to being able to properly secure Arctic regions like Greenland.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 04:15

Toothless EU Re-Export Ban On Russian LNG Kicks In

Zero Hedge -

Toothless EU Re-Export Ban On Russian LNG Kicks In

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

The EU’s ban on re-exporting Russian LNG is now officially in effect. It essentially halts ship-to-ship transfers at EU ports meant for third-country buyers and the optics are attractive--it's another cut into Moscow’s energy revenue stream. Whether that translates into pain for Russia is another story.

The re-export ban, passed back in June 2024, only targets Russian LNG cargoes passing through EU ports en route to Asia and other markets. These trans-shipments made up a paltry 2.7 million tons last year—under 10% of Russia’s 34.7 million-ton LNG export total. 

Gas analysts say much of that could be redirected to European buyers, who continue to quietly increase their own purchases from Russia despite loud political promises.

In fact, EU imports of Russian natural gas rose 18% in 2024, according to Reuters who cited Ember, and February 2025 data shows no signs of slowing - averaging 74.3 million cubic meters per day, up 11% from the month before. 

So while the EU wants to “wean off” Russian gas by 2027, for now, the addiction is alive and well.

The real twist is logistical. 

Icebreaker vessels from Novatek’s Yamal LNG can’t access Arctic terminals during the November–June freeze, so they offload at EU terminals like Zeebrugge and Montoir for re-export. About 47 such transfers occurred in 2024, according to ICIS, mostly under long-term contracts with players like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Gunvor.

The new ban forces Moscow to get creative, likely leaning more on Murmansk, Kaliningrad, or even Mediterranean alternatives. It won’t strangle Russian LNG, but it will raise costs and complicate things for Novatek and its partners—perhaps a death by a thousand logistical cuts.

The EU gets a symbolic win, Russia loses a convenient logistics channel, but the gas will keep flowing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 03:30

British Council Institutes Harsher Criminal Sentencing, But Only For White Men

Zero Hedge -

British Council Institutes Harsher Criminal Sentencing, But Only For White Men

The Sentencing Council of England And Wales, a non-departmental public body (faceless bureaucracy) which determines the guidelines for court punishments of convicted offenders, has recently made controversial changes and ignited a firestorm among the native British populace. 

The council has announced that special exceptions in sentencing will be made for ethnic minority offenders (the majority of violent crime in Britain) and religious minority offenders, as well as female offenders.  In other words, everyone except white males will enjoy reduced sentencing, creating a two tier justice system that targets white men for harsher treatment.

Conservative shadow justice minister Robert Jenrick has called the guidance "two-tier justice" and "blatant bias" against Christians and straight white men, as he said it would make "a custodial sentence less likely for those from an ethnic minority, cultural minority, and/or faith minority community".

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood claim they oppose the policy change and will take action to pass legislation against it.  However, such a process could take many months and both Starmer and Mahmood have expressed favoritism for migrants and Muslim groups in the past.  Their "opposition" could be purely theatrical and few Brits believe that they will actually make an effort to block the Sentencing Council's two-tier system. 

The legal development arrives on the heels of multiple government programs enforcing mass censorship of the British public.  Keir Starmer has expressed consistent hostility toward native Brits who oppose open immigration policies.  Numerous citizens have been fined and arrested for posting critical opinions on social media.  Some have been arrested simply for displaying British flags in the sight of migrants.  Others have been arrested for complaining online about local government officials.

The country has been spiraling into far-left authoritarianism and there doesn't seem to be a viable counter movement to correct the problem.  Mass immigration has been the most divisive crux, with rising violent crime over the past decade and cultural replacement becoming a legitimate concern.  Some areas of Britain including London are essentially unrecognizable compared to a decade ago.  

The use of unfair sentencing standards for white offenders is another clear attempt to silence native British citizens that speak out against the ongoing woke multicultural takeover of the country.  It is also an attempt to normalize far-left ideological prejudice against white people within the judicial system.  This was always the intended end game of the woke movement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 02:45

Spain's Vox Party Spokesperson Faces Hate-Crime Probe After Calling Out Link Between Immigration & Crime

Zero Hedge -

Spain's Vox Party Spokesperson Faces Hate-Crime Probe After Calling Out Link Between Immigration & Crime

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A Spanish conservative lawmaker is facing a hate crime investigation after a press conference in which he highlighted the link between mass immigration and rising crime rates — a connection supported by official data but often ignored by Spain’s far-left administration.

José Antonio Fúster, national spokesman for the populist Vox party and member of the Madrid Assembly, addressed the media on July 29 last year, where he read out the forenames of several dozen individuals arrested during violent incidents in Barcelona that weekend.

“Sabar, Omar, Nassim, Abdelkader, Salah, Salah, Younes, Karim, Jamil, Amir, Ali, Oussama, Hassan… I can go on. Do you notice any patterns? Do you notice anything?” Fúster asked.

“We do, and this is what we have been denouncing for a long time, that the open-door policy of the Popular Party and the PSOE has direct consequences on the security of Spaniards,” he added.

Though the list he read had the surnames redacted and had already circulated online via party channels, his public use of it has led the National Police to file a report for alleged incitement to hatred. Fúster, protected by parliamentary immunity as a sitting deputy, expressed disbelief upon receiving the notification last week and doubled down on his comments.

“We’re constantly told that immigration and crime have no link,” Fúster said, as cited by Spanish digital newspaper The Objective

“But they’re not fooling anyone. The criminals that Spaniards endure in their neighborhoods have names — and we all know them.”

Vox maintains that spurious criminal complaints are part of a wider effort to silence those who raise valid security concerns. The party highlighted charges against MP Rocío de Meer last year for writing, “The future of this country is dark,” in response to the birth of a child named Ayoub in a rural Spanish village, and Jordi de la Fuente, another Vox figure, who is awaiting trial over a 2019 protest targeting an asylum center.

The party continues to call for reform of Article 510 of the Penal Code, which defines hate crimes, arguing it has been weaponized to censor uncomfortable conversations. In a recent interview, Vox leader Santiago Abascal remarked, “What they call ‘hate speech’ is often just speech they hate. We’re simply describing reality, and it’s backed by the government’s own data.”

Some of that government data was reported on by Remix News last month after an information request by La Gaceta online newspaper found a growing trend in violent crimes involving foreign nationals.

Between 2013 and 2023, for example, homicides involving foreign suspects soared by 69 percent compared to a 28 percent increase in total cases.

Similarly, the Spanish Interior Ministry’s own crime stats for 2023 revealed that the top 10 Spanish cities with the highest rates of violent robberies and intimidation were all located in Catalonia, with foreigners vastly overrepresented.

The data showed that there are 8,505 inmates in Catalan prisons and that 50.48 percent of them are foreigners.

When focusing on specific violent offenses like rape, 91 percent of those convicted in Catalonia are foreigners. When it comes to sexual assault and rape combined, 64.2 percent of all prisoners are foreigners.

Fúster received plenty of support from party colleagues following the news of the criminal complaint.

“Sabar, Omar, Nassim, Abdelkader, Salah, Salah, Younes, Karim, Jamil, Amir, Ali, Oussama, Hassan… they were the ones arrested. And yes, we could go on because it was a list of the first 50 arrested during a single night in Barcelona,” said Vox secretary general Ignacio Garriga.

“Let them denounce us all, we will continue to tell the truth regardless of who it may be,” he added.

“Let’s not forget that the surnames of the criminals who have condemned us to this are others: Sánchez, Bolaños, Marlaska, Montero, Díaz… and their bipartisan allies,” wrote party leader Santiago Abascal on X.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 02:00

US Must Be Ready For A 2027 Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan; Rep. Perry

Zero Hedge -

US Must Be Ready For A 2027 Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan; Rep. Perry

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

The United States must act as if the Chinese regime’s ambition to annex Taiwan by 2027 is a “realistic potential,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) said late last week.

It follows a recent remark by the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, at an annual defense conference that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s goal to invade Taiwan in 2027 has driven the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) investment “in land, sea, and air based nuclear delivery platforms, and infrastructure necessary to support a major buildup of their nuclear forces.”

Meanwhile, rumors of escalated purges within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the past weeks have raised questions on how the CCP’s internal power struggle will impact the regime’s decision-making on Taiwan.

Speaking to The Epoch Times, Perry said taking Taiwan by 2027 has always been the CCP’s goal, and the world “needs to take that seriously” rather than assuming the CCP will be unable or unwilling to carry out the plan.

“We have to proceed in everything that we do and say, in every decision we make, as though that’s a realistic potential,” he said.

Perry, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and a retired Army brigadier general, is among the 28 lawmakers who backed a resolution in February calling for normalized diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan.

“We ought to signal very loudly that we do not accept China’s narrative and China’s coercion to try and get—slowly—the rest of the world to just accept that China is going to take over Taiwan,” he said, adding that the United States should “publicly” recognize “the diplomatic efforts and the sovereignty of Taiwan.”

Taiwan’s official name, the Republic of China, was the name of mainland China between 1912 and 1949, before the Kuomintang government lost the civil war to the CCP and was forced to retreat to Taiwan.

The CCP has never ruled Taiwan, but it aims to “unify” with the island, by peaceful means or by force. The regime has sabotaged Taiwan’s diplomatic relations and blocked its participation in international organizations. It insists the world should follow its “One China” principle, which claims that the communist regime is the only legitimate government on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Washington holds an alternative “One China” policy that acknowledges but doesn’t endorse the CCP’s position.

Since Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te took office last year, the Chinese regime has stepped up its rhetoric against so-called Taiwan separatists, and declared that “diehard” support of Taiwan independence can be punishable by death.

It has also ramped up military and patrol activities in the Taiwan Strait in recent years, sending PLA or coast guard aircraft and ships to the Strait nearly on a daily basis.

In 2023, then-CIA Director William Burns cited U.S. intelligence, saying Xi had ordered the PLA to be ready for invading Taiwan by 2027.

In an email interview with The Epoch Times, retired U.S. Army Reserve Colonel Lawrence Sellin said Beijing has so far “pursued a ‘salami-slice strategy’ using a series of many small actions to produce a much larger result.”

The regime appears to be reluctant to launch an attack or a blockade because such actions “would cause an immediate strong reaction from the United States and regional powers opposed to China’s unlawful expansionism, possibly provoking a major war,” he said, adding, “but that could change.”

Last year, Yuan Hongbing, a former law professor at China’s prestigious Peking University, who has connections in the CCP’s upper echelon, said party leaders were advised to establish a strategy to “solve the Taiwan issue by 2027” in a report penned by top PLA experts.

According to Yuan, the report described the goal as a “political guarantee” for the CCP’s 21st National Congress, which is set for 2027, to go smoothly, suggesting CCP elites have banked the party’s legitimacy on absorbing the self-ruled island.

Meanwhile, the recent disappearance of the PLA’s third in command, second-ranked vice chairman of the CCP’s Central Military Commission, Gen. He Weidong, has led to speculations on whether Xi is losing grip on power, and whether a coup would accelerate or hamper the CCP’s plan to invade Taiwan.

On how the United States should react, Perry said anything that hampers the CCP’s oppression of the Chinese people and slows the spread of communism around the world is “a good thing,” but the United States can’t “just sit back and hope that that occurs organically.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/31/2025 - 23:25

Here's The Salary You Need To Live The "American Dream" In The 50 Largest U.S. Cities

Zero Hedge -

Here's The Salary You Need To Live The "American Dream" In The 50 Largest U.S. Cities

You'll never guess what state has the highest income requirements in the U.S. -- and hint: it's not New York, California or Florida.

New data from GoBankingRates shows that earning at least $102,000 a year is needed to live comfortably and achieve the American dream in the 50 largest U.S. cities.

The study calculated this figure by analyzing average mortgage, grocery, and childcare costs, then doubling the total to reflect income needed for a comfortable lifestyle.

Washington, D.C. tops the list as the most expensive city to achieve the American dream, requiring an annual income of $189,306 a year to live comfortably, according to GoBankingRates.com

High child care costs—topping $51,000 annually—and a hefty $4,165 monthly mortgage help drive D.C.’s cost of living to nearly $95,000 a year.

Other high-cost metros include Boston ($175,628), New York ($173,006), San Francisco ($172,340), and San Jose ($167,958), each needing at least $167,000 for a comfortable lifestyle.

California dominates the list with nine cities in the top 50. In places like San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland, L.A., and San Diego, residents must earn at least $143,000 a year.

The GoBankingRates.com study shows that California dominates the upper tier of this list, with nine cities in the top 20. From Oakland to Bakersfield, residents need anywhere from $143,000 to nearly $168,000 annually to live the American dream.

Los Angeles, Long Beach, and San Diego also feature prominently, driven by inflated housing markets and uniform child care costs that hover around $35,000 a year.

Meanwhile, cities like Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Chicago offer relatively lower thresholds—about $132,000—to maintain a comfortable lifestyle, though still far from affordable for many Americans.


Even in these more “accessible” metros, the cost of groceries, child care, and housing adds up quickly, raising serious questions about whether the American dream remains attainable—or merely aspirational—in today’s urban landscape.

In the second half of the list, cities like Phoenix, Chicago, and Mesa still demand a steep income—just above $130,000—for families to live comfortably and achieve what’s commonly understood as the American Dream. While their overall costs are lower than coastal metros, expenses such as child care and housing remain substantial.

For example, in Phoenix, child care alone costs nearly $28,000 per year, with mortgage payments averaging over $2,400 a month.

As the list continues, more affordable cities begin to emerge. In places like Columbus, Miami, and Tucson, required household incomes drop closer to the $120,000 range.

But affordability is relative: Miami’s housing costs are high for its region, with monthly mortgage payments topping $3,800—among the highest outside of the top ten cities. In contrast, cities like Detroit and Jacksonville offer lower barriers, with required incomes under $120,000. Detroit stands out in particular, with a startlingly low average mortgage cost of just $421 per month.

Texas cities like Austin, Dallas, Houston, and Arlington cluster between $115,000 and $118,000 in required income. While Texas boasts relatively low mortgage and tax burdens, rising child care costs and growing population pressures are driving overall expenses upward. In Austin, for instance, housing costs are notably higher than in its peer cities, pushing up the overall cost of living.

At the bottom of the list, cities such as San Antonio, Raleigh, El Paso, and Louisville show the most accessible paths to the American Dream, requiring incomes around $100,000 to $110,000. Louisville is the most affordable among the 50 largest cities, with a household needing just $103,754 annually. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/31/2025 - 22:10

The Epidemic Beneath The Surface: Disconnection, Discomfort, & The Death Of Resilience

Zero Hedge -

The Epidemic Beneath The Surface: Disconnection, Discomfort, & The Death Of Resilience

Authored by Mollie Elngelhart via The Epoch Times,

The phone rang the other morning. It was my ex-husband, letting me know that a longtime friend of ours—someone I had dated in my 20s—had died of a heart attack related to drug use. My heart sank, but sadly, I wasn’t surprised. I get these calls multiple times a year now. Two of my three best friends from high school have lost their younger brothers. Countless kids I went to school with are gone. The amount of senseless death—whether from illegal drugs or legal pharmaceuticals—is staggering. And it’s heartbreaking.

What has happened to our ability to sit in discomfort? What has happened to our stamina for life, especially life when it gets hard?

As an employer of more than 350 people over the past decade, I’ve seen a shift in the younger generation. Many don’t seem to know how to tolerate even mild discomfort. There’s a deep urge to escape anything that doesn’t feel good—whether through substances, screens, sugar, or distractions. And I can’t help but trace this trend back to childhood: when we hand kids a screen so we can finish dinner in peace, when we give them sugar to soothe a meltdown, when we teach them—without ever saying it out loud—that the goal is to feel good all the time.

We’ve created a culture that treats discomfort like a pathology. If something is hard, we assume it must be wrong. But that’s not how life works. 

Humanity has been uncomfortable for most of its existence. 

Pain, struggle, and uncertainty are baked into the human experience. Maybe it’s not discomfort that’s the problem—but our inability to face it.

And maybe—just maybe—that inability is linked to something deeper than parenting, media, or education.

As a regenerative farmer, I look at the world through the lens of soil and microbiology, and I can’t help but wonder: Is part of our spiritual and emotional fragility rooted in the literal lack of microbiology in our bodies?

One in three children born today in the United States never passes through the vaginal canal, missing the crucial exposure to the mother’s microbiome. Rates of breastfeeding continue to drop, leaving babies without the microbial foundation that nature designed. Add to that a diet made up of sterile, processed food from nutrient-depleted soils, and we have a recipe for a generation physically and emotionally disconnected from the natural systems that support resilience.

Healthy soil and a healthy gut share over 70 percent of the same DNA. That’s not a coincidence. We are meant to be part of that living system. And when we separate ourselves from it—through our food, our birth practices, our lifestyles—we suffer.

Cultures that still live closely connected to nature—who cook over fire, grow and harvest their own food, and sleep on dirt floors—don’t experience the epidemic of suicide and overdose we see in modern society. Do they experience hardship? Of course. But their drive to live is still intact. They have a rootedness that protects them from the kind of existential despair we’re drowning in here.

And there’s science to back this up. Studies have shown that working with your hands in the soil can be as effective—or even more effective—than SSRIs in treating depression. The microbes in soil literally activate serotonin production in the brain. So why aren’t we prioritizing reconnection with nature in our solutions? Why isn’t getting kids outside, getting their hands dirty, and building real, physical resilience a national conversation?

Yes, we should limit screen time. Yes, we should cut back on sugar. But more importantly, we need to stop teaching our children that discomfort is something to be avoided at all costs. It’s okay to be bored. It’s okay to be hot, or tired, or challenged. Just because something feels bad doesn’t mean it is bad. Most worthwhile things—motherhood, entrepreneurship, marriage, community, growth—will feel hard at some point. That’s not a flaw. That’s the path.

Are we raising a generation of escape artists, or are we raising people who can stay present through difficulty, learn from it, and grow?

Our society turns to drugs, food, porn, social media, and endless forms of distraction to escape the simple reality of being human. But what if we taught our children—and reminded ourselves—that emotions are not emergencies? That pain is a teacher? That we don’t have to be ping-pong balls to our thoughts and feelings, believing every one of them as truth?

We can learn to sit in discomfort and listen. Sometimes, discomfort is just life asking us to change, to grow, to stretch, or to sharpen a skill. And sometimes, it’s just part of being alive.

I believe our disconnection from nature, from hard work, and from each other is at the root of the mental health and drug overdose epidemic. I, for one, am tired of getting phone calls letting me know someone else has died from escapism.

So how do we stop the cycle?

We start by embracing discomfort—not running from it. We model presence instead of avoidance. 

We raise kids who know how to work hard, wait, be bored, get dirty, and stay with what’s real. 

We reconnect with nature, with food grown in healthy soil, with people we trust, with rituals that remind us who we are.

We stop outsourcing our resilience and reclaim the tools that make us human.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/31/2025 - 21:45

Netanyahu Names New Israeli Spy Chief Despite Court Blocking Ronen Bar Dismissal

Zero Hedge -

Netanyahu Names New Israeli Spy Chief Despite Court Blocking Ronen Bar Dismissal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing forward with replacing the fired head of Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet) chief Ronen Bar, despite a temporary injunction against the dismissal issued by the country's supreme court.

Netanyahu has named retired Vice-Admiral Eli Sharvit, former head of the Israeli Navy, as the new security chief. The prime minister's office said Sharvit was chosen after "conducting in-depth interviews with seven worthy candidates."

Ronen Bar (right). via GPO

Adm. Sharvit served in the Israeli armed forces for 36 years, and had led "the maritime defense of the territorial waters and conducted complex operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran."

Netanyahu's cabinet had approved the March 31 firing of Bar, citing "persistent personal and professional distrust" of him and his leadership over the security agency.

The dismissal of a Shin Bet was a first in Israel's history, and sparked massive street protests - given also a host of other controversial Netanyahu decisions related to resuming the Gaza war.

Critics say that Bar's firing is a politically motivated attempt to shield Netanyahu from investigation, given that Shin Bet and the police have been probing alleged unlawful ties between two of Netanyahu's aides and Qatar.

Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara is also in the crossfire, as Netanyahu is seeking her dismissal as well. She also has warned that the dismissal of the Shin Bet chief poses a conflict of interest.

Meanwhile Israeli media reports that pressure is also being put on Netanyahu from the AG's office. "Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara instructs the police to summon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to give testimony in the ongoing investigation into his aides over their allegedly unlawful ties to Qatar," according to Channel 12.

"Netanyahu’s testimony would be given as someone with knowledge of the affair and not as a suspect at this stage," the report says.

As for Bar, he too has described his dismissal as ultimately motivated by Netanyahu’s "personal interests". In a letter he strongly suggested the problems which led to the security failures of Oct.7 originated from the top: "a policy of quiet had enabled Hamas to undergo massive military buildup" - he said of the lead-up to the terror attack on southern Israel. Netanyahu has in turn blamed Bar for massive security failures.

Eli Sharvit, a retired Israeli navy commander, named as new head of Shin Bet.

Bar added: "The dismissal of the head of the service at this time at the initiative of the Prime Minister sends a message to all those involved, a message that could put the optimal outcome of the investigation at risk. This is a direct danger to the security of the State of Israel."

His tenure was supposed to extend and end next year, and has been investigating Netanyahu’s close aides for alleged breaches of national security. In addition to the suspicious Qatar links and dealings, this includes allegations of selective leaks given to the media in order to improve the Netanyahu government's image.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/31/2025 - 21:20

US Deports 17 Accused Terrorist Gang Members To El Salvador, Rubio Says

Zero Hedge -

US Deports 17 Accused Terrorist Gang Members To El Salvador, Rubio Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

U.S. officials transferred 17 accused Tren de Aragua and MS-13 terrorist gang members to El Salvador on Sunday evening, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed on Monday morning.

Both gangs were designated by the Department of State as foreign terrorist organizations in February, as the Trump administration attempts to target illegal immigrants with criminal records.

Describing it as a “successful counter-terrorism operation,” Rubio said the U.S. military transferred 17 individuals from Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan-based gang, and MS-13, a Salvadoran gang, to the Central American country. U.S. officials worked alongside Salvadoran authorities to assist in the deportations, he added.

“These criminals will no longer terrorize our communities and citizens,” Rubio said. 

“Once again, we extend our gratitude to ... the government of El Salvador for their unparalleled partnership in making our countries safe against transnational crime and terrorism.”

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele confirmed the U.S. action on social media platform X, writing that all those who were deported from the United States “are confirmed murderers and high-profile offenders, including six child rapists.”

In the social media post, Bukele included a video of what appears to be U.S. military officials handing over the individuals to Salvadoran custody before their heads were shaved and they were transferred to a prison.

The Trump administration is currently challenging a federal judge’s order to prevent U.S. officials from using the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to implement deportations of alleged members of both gangs. 

Earlier in March, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg blocked the administration from using the law to implement the deportations and later sought details about why a deportation flight wasn’t turned around.

Last week, a U.S. appeals court declined to block Boasberg’s order that blocked the deportation of Venezuelan illegal immigrants to El Salvador, prompting the government to petition the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.

“Here, the district court’s orders have rebuffed the President’s judgments as to how to protect the Nation against foreign terrorist organizations and risk debilitating effects for delicate foreign negotiations,” Acting Solicitor General Sarah Harris wrote in the court filing to the high court.

In the legal spat, attorneys from the American Civil Liberties Union initially filed their lawsuit on behalf of five Venezuelan illegal immigrants who were being held in Texas, hours after Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act.

Aside from the appeals, the Trump administration has invoked a “state secrets privilege” and indicated it would not give Boasberg any additional information about the deportations. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and some Republicans have called for Boasberg to be impeached and removed.

In a statement responding to those calls, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said earlier this month that he believes “impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision.”

Trump has made mass deportations and imposing stricter border controls a priority under his second term. In the early days of his administration, the president signed a number of executive orders and issued directives relating to the border and the removal of illegal immigrants, including ending the Biden-era CPB One app, declaring a national emergency at the southern U.S. border, and ending birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrant parents.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/31/2025 - 20:05

Tuesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways
Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week. We haven't been outside of that range since then.

Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range. [30 year fixed 6.74%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

• Also at 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, unchanged from 50.3 in February.  

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in construction spending.

• All Day: Light vehicle sales for March.

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