US Firms Compete For 'Huge Contracts' To Control North Gaza Security

Via The Cradle

Israel is examining the launch of a "pilot program" that could see US private security firms replace the army in northern Gaza to "accompany food and medicine convoys" for Palestinians who remain in the devastated region, according to a report by Israeli daily Globes.

Among the top competitors for the multi-million dollar contract are Constellis, the direct successor to infamous mercenary company Blackwater, and Orbis, a little-known South Carolina company run by former generals that has worked with the Pentagon for 20 years.

Image source: silentprofessionals.org

Officials say the pilot program for north Gaza aims to "prevent Hamas or other gangs from taking over the aid trucks and free the IDF soldiers from the dangerous mission."

In recent weeks, Gaza's interior ministry established a new police force to deal with groups of bandits and gangs that have been raiding humanitarian aid shipments and blackmailing international organizations in the southern Gaza Strip.

The UN has said these gangs are likely "benefiting from a passive if not active benevolence" or "protection" from the Israeli army.

In October, a third US security firm – Global Delivery Company (GDC) – which describes itself as "Uber for warzones" – claimed to be working with another firm to create and manage “humanitarian bubbles” in Gaza.

GDC is run by Mordechai Kahane, an Israeli businessman who worked with Israeli intelligence during the war on Syria to arm extremist groups seeking to topple the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Although no official figure exists about the size of the contracts being offered by Tel Aviv for these mercenary firms, Globes cites Lt. Col. Yochanan Zoraf, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former advisor on Arab affairs in the Israeli army, as saying the figure will likely reach "billions of shekels per year."

"These are not companies that will manage the daily lives of the residents," Zoraf claims, adding that "peripheral responsibility for the defense of [north Gaza] as well as the civil responsibility itself" falls at Israel's feet.

The former army officer also says Tel Aviv will likely "ask that the US – or an outside party – finance the program."

On Tuesday, Israel Hayom reported that the pilot program has yet to receive approval from the security cabinet "due to legal difficulties in defining the occupation" based on international law.

"In order to circumvent the legal obstacles, the security services are examining bringing in external funding from humanitarian aid organizations or foreign countries for the [mercenary firms], which costs tens of millions of dollars to operate," the report adds.

Hundreds of citizens get flour from aid trucks in northern Gaza. pic.twitter.com/bUGxHa4iiK

— Eye on Palestine (@EyeonPalestine) November 5, 2024

Since the start of what UN sources and others denounce as the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, the Israeli government has turned to mercenaries to overcome an enlistment crisis. This includes cooperation with German intelligence to recruit asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria.

"Over the past seven months, the Values Initiative Association and the German–Israeli Association (DIG) have worked to enlist these refugees from war-torn Muslim-majority countries as mercenaries for Israel. Offered monthly salaries ranging between €4,000 to €5,000 and fast-tracked German citizenship, many have joined the fight. Reports suggest that around 4,000 immigrants were naturalized between September and October alone," writes The Cradle columnist Mohamed Nader al-Omari.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 21:30

China Discovers World's Largest Gold Deposit Worth $83 Billion

Chinese scientists have uncovered a "supergiant" deposit of high-quality gold ore hidden near some of the country's existing gold mines. The vast reserve, which could be the largest single reservoir of the valuable metal left anywhere on Earth, could end up being the largest known deposit of the precious metal anywhere in the world, and is worth more than $80 billion.

As LiveScience reports, the new deposit was uncovered at the Wangu gold field in the northeast of Hunan province, representatives from the Geological Bureau of Hunan Province (GBHP) told Chinese state media on Nov. 20. Workers detected more than 40 gold veins, which contained around 330 tons (300 metric tons) of gold down to a depth of 6,600 feet (2,000 meters). However, using 3D computer models, mining experts have predicted that there could be up to 1,100 tons (1,000 metric tons) of gold — roughly eight times heavier than the Statute of Liberty — hidden at depths of up to 9,800 feet (3,000 m).

If true, the entire deposit is likely worth around 600 billion yuan ($83 billion), GBHP officials said.

Researchers drilled down around 6,600 feet below the ground and identified more than 40 veins of gold ore.

Officials revealed that the maximum quality of the new deposit was 138 grams of gold per metric ton of ore, which is relatively high compared with most other gold mines around the world. "Many drilled rock cores showed visible gold," Chen Rulin, an ore-prospecting expert with GBHP, told state media.

More gold was also found during test drills around the new site's "peripheral areas," suggesting there are more large deposits waiting to be tapped in the future, experts said.

It is hard to keep track of the amount of gold left in the various mines across the world due to fluctuations in the rate of extraction at each site and a lack of transparency in reporting results. However, as of 2022, the largest known remaining gold reserves on Earth are found in South Africa's South Deep gold mine, which has around 1,025 tons (930 metric tons) of gold, according to Mining Technology. This means the new deposit could be the largest known natural stockpile of gold on the planet.

Mining experts believe that the new deposit contains up to 1,100 tons of gold

News of the discovery sent ripples through the mining community and the wider global economy. As LiveScience notes, the price of gold jumped to around $2,700 per ounce - just below a record high set earlier this year - although it is unclear why a surge in gold supply would push the price of gold higher.

China is already the biggest producer of gold in the world, accounting for around 10% of global output in 2023, according to Reuters. However, the country still uses more gold than it can produce, consuming around three times as much of the precious metal as it can dig up. As a result, China relies heavily on importing gold from countries like Australia and South Africa.

China currently mines around 10% of the world's newly dug up gold every year.

The new gold deposit could help alleviate this issue but will not solve the problem completely. Based on current consumption rates, the entire deposit would only supply the country's needs for around 1.4 years.

By the end of 2023, an estimated total of 234,332 tons (212,582 metric tons) of gold have been dug up in human history, with more than two-thirds of this being extracted since 1950, according to the World Gold Council.

This may seem like a lot. But if you were to melt down all the gold ever mined and put it into a single cube, it would only be around 72 feet (22 m) across, according to the World Gold Council, slightly shorter than the length of a blue whale.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 20:55

A Top Priority For The DOGE Commission: Decentralizing The Federal Government

Authored by Fred Fleitz via American Greatness,

One of the best ideas I heard from Donald Trump for his second term is to move as many as 100,000 federal employees to “new locations outside the Washington Swamp” to places “filled with patriots who love America.”

This initiative will save tax dollars and help depoliticize federal agencies. There also are important security and fairness reasons to relocate these agencies across the United States.

I speak from experience.

In the early 1990s, the late Senator Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia) drafted legislation to move thousands of CIA employees to West Virginia. Bryd proposed closing 21 CIA offices in Washington, DC, and its Virginia and Maryland suburbs and moving them to large campuses in Jefferson County, West Virginia.

My wife and I were CIA employees at the time, and we were thrilled about the potential move of our office out of the DC area. We were unable to afford a house without a lengthy commute on our federal salaries because the large presence of federal workers and contractors had driven housing prices through the roof.

(Five of the seven wealthiest U.S. counties are in the DC suburbs.)

We also disliked the liberal culture and high taxes of the DC area.

Unfortunately, the Washington establishment, including many well-paid senior CIA officers and contractors, blocked Senator Byrd’s attempt to relocate CIA offices to West Virginia. As a result, when my wife could no longer work full-time because of the disability of one of our children, we ended up buying a house 50 miles from DC with a roundtrip commute of 2.5 to 3 hours per day.

Moving federal agencies out of the DC area to areas with affordable housing and reasonable commutes are two good reasons why the Trump administration should decentralize the federal government. The current practice of locating these agencies within a few miles of the White House and Congress reflects a bygone era before telephones, email, and video conferences. Most federal employees rarely interact with members of Congress and the White House and can do their jobs more efficiently and economically in more affordable and less congested areas of the country.

There’s also the issue of fairness.

DC, Maryland, and Virginia receive huge tax revenues from federal employees’ salaries and retirement checks. They also benefit from large federal expenditures like the DC Metro, DC airports, free federal museums, etc. Since technological advances have made it unnecessary for these agencies to be located near our nation’s capital, it is time to share the wealth of federal agencies by spreading them across the United States. There is no reason why this government spending and jobs should continue to be concentrated in one part of the country.

Many of these moves would make these agencies more effective and accountable to the American people.

For example, relocating the Agriculture Department headquarters to a farming state would move the agency closer to the Americans it was created to serve. Agriculture employees could interact with farmers and ranchers on a daily basis. The Agriculture Department could also hire many employees who actually live on farms and ranches.

The same would be true for moving the headquarters of the Transportation Department to Detroit or the Interior Department to Utah or Wyoming. Other possibilities: move the Department of Health and Human Services to North Carolina’s Research Triangle, move the FBI headquarters to the Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama, move the Energy Department headquarters to the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, and move the Environmental Protection Agency headquarters to Florida. Large portions of the Pentagon, CIA, State Department, Department of Homeland Security, IRS, and other agencies should also be moved to locations across the U.S.

There are two other crucial reasons for decentralizing U.S. government agencies away from the Washington, DC area.

The most important is security. Given growing threats from nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons; drones; and violent demonstrations by radical groups, keeping large numbers of federal agencies and employees in the Washington, DC, area is a significant and avoidable threat to national security and the continuity of government. Spreading federal agencies across the United States would make it harder for a U.S. adversary to deal a devastating blow to the federal government with a single attack.

Decentralizing federal agencies also would help depoliticize them and fight the so-called “deep state.” The resistance by federal employees to the president’s constitutional authority as the head of the federal government is driven by a self-serving Washington, DC, culture consisting of entrenched employees, former employees, federal contractors, think tanks, and the mainstream media. Many of these employees do little work and are extremely hard to fire. Even worse, nearly 90% of federal government office space in Washington is vacant because most federal workers began working from home during the COVID pandemic and never returned to their offices.

Moving federal agencies out of the corrupting influence of the DC bubble would weaken deep state resistance to presidential control of federal agencies. It would also attract new employees from other parts of the country who are more interested in working hard to serve their country.

An added bonus of moving federal agencies to other areas of the U.S. is that many career employees in the DC area will quit instead of moving to new offices in the heartland.

Such relocations can thus be a way to get past the red tape of downsizing these agencies and firing problem personnel. This was proven in 2019 when President Trump moved the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to Grand Junction, Colorado. Of 328 BLM employees given relocation orders, only 41 agreed to move. Unfortunately, President Biden reversed this move in 2021.

Decentralizing the federal government should be a top priority for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Despite the many good reasons for doing this, DC’s entrenched bureaucrats and interest groups will fight hard to stop this initiative. Only a disrupter administration like the second Trump presidency can pull this off.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 20:20

Haitian Migrants Flee Springfield, Ohio Ahead Of Trump Inauguration

Is an open border reckoning at hand?  Migrants brought to the US under shady temporary legal status changes made by the Biden Administration seem to think so.  In June of this year Biden granted special immigration benefits to at least 300,000 Haitians (out of 500,000 already allowed into the US) brought into the country in 2022, allowing them to remain until early 2026.  The plan included minimal background checks and was originally touted by Biden as a way to "slow illegal border encounters".

Biden offered migrants from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela easy access to work visa programs and special benefits so that the same people wouldn't cross into the US illegally.  In other words, Biden was desperate to reduce embarrassing border crossing numbers so he paid vast sums of money to transport and house hundreds of thousands of migrants under a veil of legality.

The administration, however, did not renew legal status protections in 2024 for a large percentage of these immigrants and they will be required to leave the US in the near term.  A host of NGOs advise migrants on how to use legal loopholes to stay within the country for extended periods of time, usually dragging out the clock until they can apply for permanent residency.  None of this, however, will matter much in the wake of Donald Trump's mass deportation plans.

In response to the impending cleanup of Biden's immigration mess, Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio are reportedly fleeing the area and relocating to sanctuary cities in an attempt to avoid deportation.  The president of the Haitian Support Center in Springfield says some families have left the city for locations like Dayton and Columbus because of uncertainty about the changes in government.  

“Some of them, they relocate in those areas just to follow or observe the unfolding of the situation with the expectation that they can come back if everything gets back to normal,” said Viles Dorsainvil, Haitian Support Center president.

“We still have some kind of anxiety going on, of fear just because people do not know what will be happening with the upcoming the next administration..." 

The media has attempted to portray deportation policies as a threat to all immigrants, even those that have been in the US for many years following the legal citizenship process.  

Haitian illegal aliens are fleeing Springfield Ohio as 47 prepares for mass deportations
pic.twitter.com/mJPSFZKM9x

— Drew Hernandez (@DrewHLive) November 25, 2024

But for every story of a migrant that has actually added something of value to their new community, there are thousands of migrants feeding off government subsidies.  Democrats often claim that illegals and migrants under TPS don't receive government benefits.  This is false.

The majority of Haitian migrants under the Biden program are eligible for cash assistance, medical assistance, employment preparation, job placement, English language training, and other services offered through the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR).

They may also be eligible for federal “mainstream” (non-ORR funded) benefits, such as cash assistance through Supplemental Security Income (SSI) or Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), health insurance through Medicaid, and food assistance through Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

This is on top of cash aid provided to Haitians by pro-immigration NGOs. 

Over 20,000 Haitian migrants were shipped to Springfield, Ohio; the city originally had a population of only 60,000.  That's a 33% increase in total population made up of a third world demographic, all in the span of a couple years. This was done subversively without any warning or input from native residents.  The situation became national news after locals reported increasing disappearances of pets and park wildlife after the arrival of the migrants, which Donald Trump commented on during the second presidential debate.  

The ability of migrants living in the US under tenuous circumstances to fight deportation is limited.  Democrats and sanctuary city officials suggest they can tie up the DHS and ICE for months or years on each case, exhausting the Trump Administration with legal battles.  This is not reality.  

Trump can indeed place a moratorium on asylum requests and revoke Temporary Protection Status (TPS) applications. He did this during his first term and he can do it again.  Legal battles are harder to fight when the person in question is booted out of the country where the courts reside.  There is nothing that can stop deportations, including ambiguous sanctuary city protections.  One way or another, most migrants in the US illegally and those under Biden's TPS policy will be sent back to where they came from.       

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 19:45

Florida Authorities Recover 37 Gold Coins Stolen From 1715 Fleet Shipwrecks

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Florida authorities have recovered 37 gold coins worth more than $1 million that were stolen from the 1715 Fleet shipwrecks, the state’s Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) said on Nov. 26.

The FWC said the gold coin recovery marked “a major milestone” in a years-long investigation into the theft and illegal trafficking of historical artifacts.

The gold coins were initially found by contracted salvage operators for the 1715 Fleet—comprising Spanish ships that sank in a hurricane off Florida’s coast in 1715—off Florida’s Treasure Coast in 2015.

There were 101 gold coins found from the wreckages, but only 51 of them were reported and adjudicated, while the remaining gold coins were not disclosed and were later stolen, the FWC said in a statement.

FWC investigators launched a probe with the FBI after new evidence came to light in June this year, leading to the arrest of Eric Schmitt, whose family had been contracted to salvage the centuries-old fleet.

Schmitt was connected to the illegal sale of stolen gold coins between 2023 and 2024, the FWC stated.

During the probe, investigators carried out multiple search warrants and recovered coins from private residences, safe deposit boxes, and auctions. Five coins were retrieved from an auctioneer living in Florida, who had purchased them from Schmitt, the FWC stated.

Investigators also used advanced digital forensics to identify metadata and geolocation data, which linked Schmitt to a photo of the stolen coins taken at the Schmitt family condominium in Fort Pierce.

The FWC said that Schmitt also took three of the stolen gold coins and placed them on the ocean floor in 2016, which were subsequently found by new investors of the 1715 Fleet.

“This case underscores the importance of safeguarding Florida’s rich cultural heritage and holding accountable those who seek to profit from its exploitation,” FWC investigator Camille Soverel said in a statement.

Authorities said the recovered artifacts will be returned to their rightful custodians, though the probe is still ongoing to locate 13 remaining stolen gold coins and hold those involved in the illegal sale accountable.

The custodian and salvaging company of the 1715 Fleet, Queen Jewels LLC, said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the theft and has been working with law enforcement and the state in the case.

“We take our responsibilities as custodian very seriously and will always seek to enforce the laws governing these wrecks,” the company said in a statement.

“The recovered coins are now going through the proper process for legal adjudication.”

The FWC said it partnered with the 19th and Ninth Judicial Circuits to bring charges against Schmitt for dealing in stolen property.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 19:10

Hezbollah Believes It Lost Up To 4000 Fighters Killed, Far Surpassing 2006 War

Reuters has cited Hezbollah and Lebanese sources to say that Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed by Israel over the last year of fighting could be as high as 4,000.

A fragile ceasefire has held for the last three days, and the Shia group backed by Iran has been burying its dead this week. Ground fighting has been most intense in the last two months before the ceasefire was agreed to.

"The sources’ estimate far outstrips tallies published by the group, but skews close to Israel’s announced figure and could provide a window into the extent to which Israel was able to damage the powerful Iranian proxy, which saw its leadership largely decapitated and its rocket arsenal significantly depleted, according to authorities," Reuters says.

AFP/Getty Images

According to more, based on a source cited by Reuters, "the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people — well over 10 times the number killed in its monthlong 2006 war with Israel."

Tens of thousands of Lebanese have been moving back into their southern villages and towns, some of which are in rubble and ruins. Bodies are still being searched for under the rubble.

The Lebanese army is also moving into southern districts in coordination with UN peacekeeping authorities, as part of the truce deal to monitor for potential ceasefire violations.

"The concerned military units are moving from several areas to the South Litani Sector, where they will be stationed in the locations designated for them," the Lebanese military said in its first statement following the truce going into effect.

Meanwhile, amid a war-weary and devastated Lebanese population, Hezbollah might be more unpopular then ever. The economy was already in tatters even long before Oct.7, 2023.

"Hezbollah’s claim of victory holds little weight outside its core constituency," Imad Salamey, a Middle Eastern politics professor and analyst at the Lebanese American University, has explained.

"The war was not widely popular among the Lebanese people, many of whom are more focused on the devastating economic losses inflicted during the conflict," he added.

Despite some positive indicators that the ceasefire will hold, including the cessation of daily rocket fire onto northern Israel, the conflict might not be over

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 18:35

Divide & Conquer: Political Riptides Threaten To Overwhelm The Nation

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented. Sometimes we must interfere. When human lives are endangered, when human dignity is in jeopardy, national borders and sensitivities become irrelevant. Wherever men or women are persecuted because of their race, religion, or political views, that place must–at that moment–become the center of the universe.”

- Elie Wiesel, Nobel Peace Prize Speech

Once again we find ourselves approaching that time of year when, as George Washington and Abraham Lincoln proclaimed, we’re supposed to give thanks as a nation and as individuals for our safety and our freedoms.

But how do you give thanks for freedoms that are constantly being eroded?

How do you express gratitude for one’s safety when the perils posed by the American police state grow more treacherous by the day?

How do you come together as a nation in thanksgiving when the powers-that-be continue to polarize and divide us into warring factions?

You can see this struggle—to reconcile the hope for a better, freer, more just world with the soul-sucking reality of a world in which greed, meanness and war continue to triumph—in John Lennon’s two songs, “Imagine” (which exhorted us to “Imagine all the people livin’ life in peace”) and “Happy Xmas (War Is Over)” (which was part of a major anti-war campaign, which were released within months of each other in 1971.

Lennon—a musical genius, anti-war activist, and a high-profile example of the lengths to which the Deep State will go to persecute those who dare to challenge its authority—made clear that the only way to achieve an end to hunger, violence, war, and tyranny is to want it badly enough and work towards it.

All these years later, we still don’t seem to want those things badly enough.

Peace remains out of reach. Activists and whistleblowers continue to be prosecuted for challenging the government’s authority. Militarism is on the rise, all the while the governmental war machine continues to wreak havoc on innocent lives.

For those of us who joined with Lennon to imagine a world of peace, it’s getting harder to reconcile that dream with the reality of the American police state.

Those who do dare to speak up about government corruption are labeled dissidents, troublemakers, terrorists, lunatics, or mentally ill and tagged for surveillance, censorship or involuntary detention.

And then there are those who remain silent while the world falls apart.

By doing nothing, the onlookers become as guilty as the perpetrator.

It works the same whether you’re talking about kids watching bullies torment a fellow student on a playground, passersby watching someone dying on a sidewalk, or citizens remaining silent in the face of government atrocities.

There’s a term for this phenomenon where people stand by, watch and do nothing—even when there is no risk to their safety—while some horrific act takes place: it’s called the bystander effect.

Historically, this bystander syndrome in which people remain silent and disengaged—mere onlookers—in the face of abject horrors and injustice has resulted in whole populations being conditioned to tolerate unspoken cruelty toward their fellow human beings: the crucifixion and slaughter of innocents by the Romans, the torture of the Inquisition, the atrocities of the Nazis, the butchery of the Fascists, the bloodshed by the Communists, and the cold-blooded war machines run by the military industrial complex.

Psychological researchers John Darley and Bibb Latane mounted a series of experiments to discover why people respond with apathy or indifference instead of intervening.

According to Darley and Latane, there are two critical factors that contribute to this moral lassitude. First, there’s the problem of pluralistic ignorance in which individuals in a group look to others to determine how to respond. Second, there’s the problem of “diffusion of responsibility,” which is compounded by pluralistic ignorance. Basically, this means that no one acts to intervene or help because each person is waiting for someone else to do so.

Their findings underscore the fact that evil prevails when good people do nothing.

We see it all the time: when people are vocal about politics but silent in the face of human suffering and injustice, tyranny triumphs.

For instance, psychologist Philip Zimbardo’s Stanford Prison Experiment studied the impact of perceived power and authority on middleclass students who were assigned to act as prisoners and prison guards. The experiment revealed that power does indeed corrupt (the appointed guards became increasingly abusive), and those who were relegated to being prisoners acted increasingly “submissive and depersonalized, taking the abuse and saying little in protest.”

This is how imperial presidents preside over police states.

So, what can we do? Be modern-day Good Samaritans and do your part to push back against the darkness. Recognize injustice. Don’t turn away from suffering. Refuse to remain silent. Take a stand. Speak up. Speak out.

“If you think there is even a possibility that someone needs help, act on it,” advises Zimbardo.  “You may save a life. You are the modern version of the Good Samaritan that makes the world a better place for all of us.”

This is what Zimbardo refers to as “the power of one.” All it takes is one person breaking away from the fold to change the dynamics of a situation.

Here’s what I suggest: this holiday season, do yourselves a favor and turn off the talking heads, shut down the screen devices, tune out the politicians, take a deep breath, then do something to pay your blessings forward.

Find something to be thankful for about the things and people in your community for which you might have the least tolerance or appreciation. Instead of just rattling off a list of things you’re thankful for that sound good, dig a little deeper and acknowledge the good in those you may have underappreciated or feared.

When it comes time to giving thanks for your good fortune, put your gratitude into action: pay your blessings forward with deeds that spread a little kindness, lighten someone’s burden, and brighten some dark corner.

Engage in acts of kindness. Smile more. Fight less. Build bridges. Refuse to let toxic politics define your relationships. Focus on the things that unite instead of that which divides.

Do your part to push back against the meanness of our culture with conscious compassion and humanity. Moods are contagious, the good and the bad. They can be passed from person to person. So can the actions associated with those moods, the good and the bad.

Acts of benevolence, no matter how inconsequential they might seem, can spark a movement.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, all it takes is one person to start a chain reaction.

For instance, a few years ago in Florida, a family of six—four adults and two young boys—were swept out to sea by a powerful rip current in Panama City Beach. There was no lifeguard on duty. The police were standing by, waiting for a rescue boat. And the few people who had tried to help ended up stranded, as well.

Those on shore grouped together and formed a human chain. What started with five volunteers grew to 15, then 80 people, some of whom couldn’t swim.

One by one, they linked hands and stretched as far as their chain would go. The strongest of the volunteers swam out beyond the chain and began passing the stranded victims of the rip current down the chain.

One by one, they rescued those in trouble and pulled each other in.

There’s a moral here for what needs to happen in this country if we only can band together and prevail against the riptides that threaten to overwhelm us.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 18:00

Zelenskyy Offers To End 'Hot Phase' Of War In Exchange For NATO Membership

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he's willing to end the "hot phase of the war" with Russia - including ceding captured territory - in exchange for NATO membership that includes Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to Sky's Stuart Ramsay

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the Nato umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," he told Sky News, adding "We need to do it fast. And then, on the occupied territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way."

Zelenskyy said that a ceasefire was needed to "guarantee that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will not come back" to take more Ukrainian territory," or that "he [Putin] will come back."

In short, to end the war, Zelenskyy wants the thing that started the war.

Ukrainian president @ZelenskyyUa told @ramsaysky NATO membership would have to be offered to unoccupied parts of the country to end the "hot phase of the war", as long as the NATO invitation itself recognises Ukraine's internationally recognised borders.https://t.co/yqZZ8aFrwm pic.twitter.com/NuburSX6hw

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 29, 2024

The comments are a drastic departure from previous statements - as Zelenskyy has long-asserted that Ukraine's sovereignty is non-negotiable, including over Crimea.

Putting things in recent perspective, Zelenskyy's comments come as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte admitted to Fox News that Ukraine is not in a strong enough position to negotiate an end to the war, explaining that there is not enough battlefield leverage to "prevent the Russians from getting what they want."

"I think that’s crucial that we have a good deal because the whole world will be watching what type of deal will be struck between Russia and Ukraine when it comes to it," Rutte said.

"We have to make sure that Ukraine is in a position of more strength than they are at the moment," Rutte continued, "so that a deal can be struck which is favorable not to the Russians — and therefore to China, North Korea and Iran — because they all will be watching."

It also comes amid pressure from the Biden administration to lower the draft age in Ukraine to 18 so it has enough troops to continue fighting Russia, aka more meat for the grinder.

Former British PM Boris Johnson - who allegedly scuttled early peace talks in Turkey that might have ended the Ukraine war - has called for NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine, again.

Johnson also asserted that if Russia gets the upper hand in the conflict then Britain may deploy it's forces regardless in order to "defend Europe."  Ukraine's eastern defenses are currently being overrun by ongoing Russian attrition tactics. This reality in combination with Trump's avalanche election win seems to have triggered establishment ghouls into a frenzy of escalation with Joe Biden giving the greenlight on long range missile strikes coordinated directly by NATO forces.   

Watch the entire interview below:

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 17:41

India's GDP Growth Slows To Two-Year Low

Two weeks ago, when looking at the recent sharp drop in Indian stocks and the concurrent slide in earnings expectations, we asked whether the Indian stock bubble - one of the most resilient of the past decade - had finally burst.

Today we got another confirmation that the answer appears to be yes, when we learned that India’s economy grew at its slowest pace in almost two years, dampening the outlook for the full year and putting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

GDP grew 5.4% in the three months to September from a year earlier, the Statistics Ministry said in a statement on Friday. That was the worst reading since the fourth quarter of 2022 and lower than the central bank’s projection of 7% for the period. It is also well below the roughly 10% growth pace observed in the pre-covid era.

The data will prompt economists to further downgrade their GDP growth forecasts for the year through March 2025. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are already predicting growth as low as 6.4%.

The figures will also put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India, which has been predicting growth of 7.2% for the full year, to cut interest rates. The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for Dec. 6. The yield on India’s 10-year bond fell 5 basis points to 6.76% after the GDP release. The rupee was steady, having closed before the data.

“While we expect the RBI to keep the policy rate unchanged at its meeting next week, the possibility of a move in the February policy for a rate cut has increased,” said Sakshi Gupta, an economist at HDFC Bank Ltd.

The slump in last quarter’s growth was largely due to weaker manufacturing and electricity and gas production, while mining contracted.

Slumping company profits, falling wages and inflation have hurt the economy’s breakneck speed in recent months. The central bank has kept rates unchanged for almost two years now, with Governor Shaktikanta Das recently reiterating that a rate cut at this stage would be “very risky” given inflation risks.

Prominent ministers in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, including the finance minister, have recently stated that high borrowing costs are hurting the economy. Weak growth will make it difficult for India to cash in on its demographic dividend. Joblessness, especially among young people, emerged as a key concern for voters in India’s election this year, contributing to Modi’s worse-than-expected showing at the polls.

Despite the rapid slowdown in growth, India's economy continues to grow notably faster than that of India, which is officially expected to grow by 5% but unofficially is stagnant at best if not contracting.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 17:30

The "Let It Rip" Canard: Reflections On Jay Bhattacharya

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

Early in the Covid period, the skeptics of government closures and universal quarantines were denounced as favoring a policy of “let it rip.” The phrase has been in use since the 19th century. It is apparently drawn from experience with steamships. When you released power to its maximum extent, it made a ripping sound. 

The implication is that when you let it rip, you let go of all controls and just wait to see what happens. 

Think about the application to infectious disease, at least in the context of the debate over lockdowns. The theory is that if you don’t force people to stay home, force businesses to close, and force schools and churches to shut down, people will mindlessly move about here and there and cause infection to spread wildly. No one will have a clue about what to do about it. 

The implication is that people are unbearably stupid, lack all personal incentive to protect themselves, and somehow cannot but be as reckless as possible.

There will be no strategies, no methods of mitigation, no therapeutics, no limits on the spread of incurable sickness. 

We need geniuses like Anthony Fauci to give us police-enforced guidance in order to stay safe from the consequences of our own choices. We don’t have brains. We don’t have habits born of experience. We don’t have any social mechanisms embedded in our traditions. We don’t have anything. 

We are worse than an anthill, which at least has a rules-based order born of instinct. In this view, human behavior is purely randomized and rote, moving about here and there, fully unable to process information about guidance, lacking completely in any capacity to be careful, wise, or otherwise govern ourselves. 

This is the essence of the push for lockdowns. Anything less than totalitarian control of the human population amounts to utter chaos in which the virus rules us all whereas the geniuses at the controls of government power know all things.

This is the essential worldview of all those who said that lockdown opponents merely want to let the virus rip. 

This was of course the core criticism of the Great Barrington Declaration of which NIH Director-nominee Jay Bhattacharya was the main author. It advocated no such thing as “let it rip.” Instead, it called for public health to recognize the existence of human intelligence and consider the costs of overriding it with police-state edicts that ruin businesses and lives. It came out six months after lockdowns began and already revealed themselves to be devastating. There should not have been anything even slightly controversial about the statement. 

And yet truly there was something about those times that tempted intellectuals toward grave extremes of utopian thinking. Remember the “Zero Covid” movement? Talk about insane. 

I just read an outrageous paper in Frontiers of Health (date March 2021!) that claimed to have the magical solution to Covid. The plan would defeat the disease in “one day” by ordering simultaneous universal testing, forcing all positive tests to isolate, and monitoring all public spaces with concentration camp guards. The authors proposed this seriously, forgetting that a respiratory virus with a zoonotic reservoir cares nothing for such antics. To have signed one’s name to such a suggestion should confine one to a lifetime of ill repute as an intellectual. 

There is also the slight problem of human rights and freedom. But, hey, anyone who yammered on about those topics was then accused of being an advocate of “let it rip.” 

The truth is that we do have intelligence and brains. Older people have always known to avoid large crowds in flu season. Pick up any geriatric magazine and you can discover that this is true. Even our habits of the season reflect that. Intergenerational family units tend to stay indoors as we enter winter months and get out and about in the spring when threats of infectious disease die down. “Focused protection” is embedded in the habits of the calendar year. 

We are also capable of reading data on risk demographics. We knew from February 2020 that Covid posed a medically significant risk mainly to the aged and infirm. There was never a serious risk associated with beach parties or schooling. We knew this at least intuitively, and vast numbers of people also knew to disregard the crazy fear-mongering from the top that was designed to prepare the population for the shot. 

Society knew better than its managers. It is this way in every sector of life in a world in which society is trusted as the primary manager of itself. 

It’s true in economics. Now that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are pushing for radical deregulation of all things, the same critique is being offered. They merely advocate that enterprise “let it rip.” It’s the new name for laissez-faire, another smear term from the 19th century. 

But in the same sense that people have the intelligence to judge disease risk, society generates systems and institutions that put limits and guardrails up for enterprise too. The existence of rivalrous competition with easy entry and exit keeps prices, profits, and costs toward an equilibrium. Producer accountability is instilled with user ratings, reputation, and strict liability (unless you are a vaccine maker enjoying full indemnification). 

People forget that the best institutions assuring quality and safety are not government agencies but private services like Underwriters Laboratory, which has been around since the 19th century, long before the federal government had a single agency regulating even food quality. Remove the regulations, abolish the agencies, and competent and well-run private institutions would appear in every area, the same as professional credentialing now. 

Trusting people to manage infectious disease based on realistic risk assessments is no different from trusting property owners, workers, prices, and markets to work out the best possible solutions to the problem of scarcity in the material world. It doesn’t mean full throttle come what may any more than not locking down means zero control over our health. 

In other words, this whole phrase has been deployed against the idea of freedom itself. In fact, the proponents of lockdowns were not opposed to smearing that word too, spelling it as freedumb. 

Early on in the pandemic response, I was interviewed in Germany and the person asked what the best rhetorical strategy would be to push for a reopening. I suggested they campaign for freedom. The response: that is not possible because the word itself has been discredited. My response: if freedom is discredited, we have no cause of hope at all. 

The legacy of Jay Bhattarcharya’s actions during Covid – joining what felt like a half-dozen of us immediate critics of these awful policies – is not only his attention to science and facts; it is also a reverence for the idea of freedom itself, which really means to trust that society can manage itself with the best-possible outcomes apart from the dictates of pretentious and powerful people at the top. 

In a beautiful irony, Jay now inherits the position of the man who called him a “fringe epidemiologist” and called for the censors to do a “quick and devastating takedown” of his work. It’s been a very long journey lasting nearly five years, but here we are, the man who led the opposition to the worst-imaginable public health policies now in a position to make sure that nothing like this ever happens again. 

Savor this moment: it’s a rare one when justice prevails. As for accountability and the truth about what happened in those dark days, there is a good phrase for what should happen to the information flows that should now happen: let it rip. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 17:00

Looming Trump Tariffs Spark Wave Of Freight Frontloading From China

Anticipating that President-elect Donald Trump will fulfill his promise of a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, importers are frontloading freight before the tariff wall takes effect in less than two months.

Bloomberg reports that international cargo flights out of the world's second-largest economy are ramping up to new records in the weeks after the presidential election. 

According to the Ministry of Transport data, there were 3,485 international cargo flights in or out of China last week, the most since March 2023—or about the time when China reopened its economy after a few years of lockdowns. Last week was the third consecutive week with more than 3,400 flights. 

Souce: Bloomberg

"The threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will motivate US importers to frontload imports and accumulate inventories, regardless of whether the tariffs are implemented," Barclays analyst Pooja Sriram wrote in a note to clients earlier this week. 

Sriram said, "The 25% tariffs could intensify this pull-forward effect, leading to an even stronger surge in imports in late 2024 and early 2025, thereby widening the trade deficit."

Several Chinese manufacturers, including Shenzhen Lingke Technology, a lighting products manufacturer, told Nikkei Asia that major US retailers have already increased orders.

"The thinking is that American clients want to lock in as many profits as possible before a new round of tariffs kick in," Wu Zhiqiang, CEO of Shenzhen Lingke, told the media outlet.

Nikkei reported, "Microsoft, HP and Dell are scrambling to obtain as many electronic parts as they can before January."

"We think shipment could be front-loaded, boosting exports in the first half of 2025 before dampening them in the second half," other Barclays analysts wrote in a note. Analysts at the bank expect a 30% tariff increase from the U.S. on Chinese goods next year, which would cap China's economic growth in 2025 to about 4%. 

Mike Beckham, CEO of Simple Modern, which produces drinkware and other lifestyle production in Oklahoma, although it relies on components from China, warned there is a lot of tarrif "uncertainty right now."

"Some companies are attempting to ship as much as they can right now, but it has not been a major driver of strategy for the companies I am close with," Beckham said. 

China's export boom bodes well for logistics firms, such as freight forwarders and carriers, in the short term, as the panic to pull forward as much product as possible before tariffs go into effect early next year. 

A report from Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that air cargo prices out of China "have still not spiked and carriers report being busy but not overwhelmed even as December approaches," adding, "Capacity additions to these lanes and shippers who adjusted and planned ahead may prove to be enough to prevent extreme rate climbs and congestion through the end of the year."

Trump announced earlier this week he intends to levy a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada would remain in place until the flow of "drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop," while tariffs on China would remain in place "until such time as [the drugs that are pouring into our country] stop."  He also stated that on January 20, he would "sign all necessary documents" to implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada as one of his "many first Executive Orders."

Overall, the tariff announcement is reminiscent of the first Trump administration, when such tariffs were announced as a negotiating tactic, rather than the more systematic tariff policies (e.g., the 10-20% "universal baseline tariff") Trump frequently discussed during the campaign.

Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist, George Saravelos, wrote a note late this week outlining the ten biggest takeaways his desk had about the incoming Trump tariffs. 

Saravelos pointed out the countries that would be most affected by tariffs, including Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada. 

The great pull-forward of freight to hedge against Trump tariffs is well underway—reminiscent of 2018. The only problem is that freight demand will likely slide once frontloading is over. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 16:30

Syrian Jihadists Mount New Assault On Aleppo After Surprise Advance

Authored by Jaston Ditz via AntiWar.com,

The Syrian proxy war never really ended, but it certainly had quieted down for a time, with various factions confined to various areas, and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seeming stuck in Idlib Province. Today the war is flaring up again in a big way.

HTS forces have pushed eastward out of Idlib into the western part of Aleppo Province and toward Aleppo itself, seizing several towns along the way. It is being reported that around 182 people have been killed Thursday alone in the fighting on the ground in the area. That includes 102 HTS fighters and 80 fighters including both Syrian troops and their allies.

Via Middle East Eye

The battles are still ongoing, and the toll continues to increase all the time. The Syrian military seems to be seeing substantial backing from Russian air assets in the area. The HTS is also reported using Ukrainian drones against the Syrian forces. It has been reported for months that Ukraine has offered "drones for fighters" to HTS, but this would mark the first time such drones are being used in a big way in combat.

On top of those killed in the ongoing fighting, the Syrian and Russian air forces have caused substantial civilian casualties. 19 civilians were killed in attacks in and around al-Atareb and Darat Izza, and at least 26 others were wounded. Both of those cities are about 25 km from Aleppo itself, the largest city in Syria, underscoring how quickly the HTS has advanced.

A number of other towns and villages reported airstrikes in the area. Al-Nayrab is by far the closest town to Aleppo to have reported strikes, saying they were hit twice. They are only about 10 km from Aleppo, making them virtually a suburb of the major city.

HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.

Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government.

It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.

⚡️Al Nusra terrorists on the outskirts of Aleppo pic.twitter.com/cS6jbdRl7g

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 29, 2024

The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars.

This could be a growing concern for the Syrian government, as what was once a contained problem in the Idlib Province looks to explode outward starting many of the same fights all over again.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 16:00

Trump Taps Chris Rufo To Help De-Wokify Ivy Leagues Receiving Federal Funding

President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is ramping up efforts to dismantle diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives in higher education. In a significant move, key conservative figure Christopher Rufo has been invited to present a proposal to slash federal funding for universities that maintain such programs.

Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a prominent critic of DEI efforts, plans to outline how federal funds could be conditioned on the removal of these programs. The proposal aims to eliminate perceived discrimination in university practices, arguing that DEI programs violate the Civil Rights Act by favoring certain racial, ethnic, or gender groups.

“If you don’t stop discriminating and violating the law, you will no longer be qualified for federal funding,” Rufo emphasized. He anticipates that institutions, particularly Ivy League universities that receive billions annually in federal research funding, would quickly comply.

Rufo’s presentation is part of a broader cultural and political strategy supported by Trump’s incoming administration. Russ Vought, tasked with spearheading government efficiency efforts, is hosting Rufo at Mar-a-Lago to discuss the proposal. Notably, Vice President-elect JD Vance has voiced strong support, citing the need to dismantle DEI in education and proposing significant taxation on university endowments.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Vance views Rufo as "a leading voice in the movement to restore merit and excellence" to universities, adding that Vance believes Rufo "recognizes schools and universities exist to equip American students to face tomorrow’s challenges, not to indoctrinate them with the fringe beliefs of the far left."

Universities have said they are legally and ethically responding to the changing demographics of the nation. Photo: Scott Eisen/Getty Images

This effort mirrors Trump’s earlier actions during his presidency, including banning federal race and gender bias training programs—a measure reversed by President Biden.

As the WSJ notes:

From his perch outside Seattle, the 40-year-old documentary filmmaker and writer has become one of the country’s most influential—and effective—culture warriors, waging public fights against diversity, equity and inclusion efforts in schools, businesses and government. 

Rufo exposed plagiarism in the academic scholarship of Harvard President Claudine Gay and in the writings of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. His reports played a role in Gay’s subsequent resignation in January of this year and damaged Harris’s campaign. He has also taken aim at diversity practices in large companies, most recently at Boeing. 

...

Rufo said he is meeting with members of the Trump administration next month. He has said he thinks colleges and universities have been taken over by the left, and he wants to recapture them by cutting federal money to schools that continue to engage in DEI practices. He also wants to excise race-based affirmative action from any institution with which the federal government does business.

Impact on Universities

The proposed restrictions could have profound financial implications for universities reliant on federal grants and student aid. For example, Harvard University received $686 million in federal research funding in the last academic year. Institutions like Harvard, already under scrutiny for race-based admissions policies, have begun scaling back DEI efforts.

Critics of these programs, including investor Bill Ackman, have linked them to broader cultural issues, such as antisemitism and the suppression of free speech on campuses. Protests and demonstrations have intensified these debates, particularly following the recent conflict in Gaza.

"I hope the president turns the screws on DEI in the Ivy Leagues," Rufo told Bloomberg. "This would put conditions on federal funding, especially the Ivy Leagues, if they practice discrimination regarding DEI."

While universities are a great start, Rufo says the incoming Trump administration envisions a broader crackdown, including denying federal contracts to corporations that continue DEI efforts. This aligns with growing opposition from corporate leaders like Elon Musk, who recently praised Walmart’s decision to scale back diversity initiatives.

“Now the fight returns to the White House, the center of power for the country as a whole,” Rufo said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 15:30

Playing Nuclear Chicken

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

We continue to climb steadily up the World War III escalation ladder.

Last week, Biden foolishly gave Ukraine the green light to strike deep into Russian territory using U.S. missiles.

Now Russia has responded, as Putin promised they would.

On November 21st Russia launched a new hypersonic missile known as the Oreshnik. It is a unique weapon designed to send a clear message.

The Oreshnik utilizes a system similar to MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) technology common on nuclear ICBMs.

This new missile has 6 warheads which each have 6 submunitions. That’s 36 projectiles per missile in total.

Here is a still shot of one of the sets of 6 submunitions just before reaching its target.

It is important to note that the projectiles are not glowing due to rocket engines firing. The warheads separated from the booster engine at a much higher altitude and are now gliding.

The submunitions are glowing due to the plasma bubble created by friction against the dense atmosphere at speeds of around Mach 10 (7,600 mph). That’s 2.1 miles per second.

At such speeds, even if the Oreshnik’s submunitions lack significant explosive payloads, the kinetic energy alone would make for an effective strike asset. This is similar to the sci-fi weapon concept colloquially known as “rods from God”, in which inert tungsten rods are flung down from orbit.

The U.S. and NATO have no defense against the Oreshnik. Targeting 36 independent projectiles traveling at 7,600 mph is a fool’s errand. Striking the missile before the warheads separate is also unlikely, as it has a variable-speed solid rocket engine which makes its trajectory unpredictable.

This new missile adds to Russia’s impressive hypersonic arsenal:

• Kinzhal – Mach 10 air-launched ballistic missile
• Zircon – Mach 9 ship-launched cruise missile
• Iskander – Mach 7 ground-launched ballistic missile
• R-37M – Mach 6 air-to-air missile

Each of these weapons is fully operational, in full production, and has been used successfully during the Ukraine war. To date, these weapons have only been used with conventional explosives. But the first three can also be armed with nuclear warheads.

NATO air defenses have not found much if any, success against Russian hypersonics. And with new options such as the Oreshnik, which would likely target air defenses and ballistic missile sites, the balance in conventional weaponry in Ukraine has moved further in Russia’s favor.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is struggling to get our first hypersonic conventional missile, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), in service. The U.S. has long worked on hypersonic missiles, but the engineering challenges are extreme. Traveling at speeds of Mach 5+ generates massive amounts of heat and friction.

America’s bloated defense sector has been unable to meet the requirements so far. Hopefully, Trump finds success in revitalizing our military-industrial complex. Otherwise, we will continue to fall behind.

Nuclear Options

As Biden goads Russia, he is implicitly relying on America’s nuclear weapons stockpile as a deterrent. At this point, we cannot match Russia when it comes to conventional missile technology.

So when Biden willingly crosses Russia’s red lines, he is counting on the threat of American nuclear weapons to prevent full-out war. He also appears to be attempting to sabotage President Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine.

This is incredibly reckless behavior. One major problem is that Russia has an even larger and more modern nuclear arsenal.

If Moscow or a nuclear power plant is targeted by Ukraine using American missiles, there is a possibility that Russia retaliates with a nuclear strike. We are in essence calling their bluff. And they need to preserve their own defense deterrence posture, or they could look weak.

From there, things could get very ugly very quickly.

In a nuclear war, there are no winners. Biden and his handlers are playing a dangerous game. They are gambling with hundreds of millions of lives.

All of this is simply to drag out another unwinnable conflict. Have we learned nothing from the War on Terror? America’s reign as a lone superpower is over. That’s a reality that needs to sink in so U.S. policy can adapt accordingly.

The sooner the Deep State realizes this, the better off we’ll all be.

The lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis were clear. Lesson One is to avoid escalation. Lesson Two is that if escalation begins, it’s crucial to de-escalate. Failure to abide by these lessons is a straight path to nuclear war.

Russia has signaled that it is ready to begin immediate negotiations with the Trump administration. Trump’s upcoming presidency may be the only thing preventing WW3.

Inauguration Day can’t come fast enough.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 15:05

3 US Aircraft Carriers To Be In Asia During Trump Inauguration

In a historic convergence, three US aircraft carriers will be in Asia by next week after months of absence amid concerns of Chinese activity in the lead up to the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, the Nikkei reported.

The USS George Washington arrives in Yokosuka, Japan for the first time in over nine years on Nov. 22

USS George Washington, with a crew of 2,702, arrived on Friday in Yokosuka, Japan, home to the US Navy's 7th Fleet, returning to the port for the first time in nine years. The USS Carl Vinson was deployed to the Pacific on Monday. Meanwhile the USS Abraham Lincoln is now in the Indian Ocean, passing through the South China Sea, before heading home to San Diego, California.

"This presence enables rapid response for maritime and joint forces and brings our most capable ships with the greatest amount of striking power and operational capability to bear," Lt. Cmdr. Katie Koenig, a U.S. Pacific Fleet spokesperson, told Nikkei Asia. It also "demonstrates our collective resolve to ensure security and stability in the region," she said.

According to Nikkei, the US had no forward-deployed carrier in Asia since mid-May, when the USS Ronald Reagan left Yokosuka. Other aircraft carriers were sent to the Middle East in response to the rising conflict there after Israel launched missile strikes at Lebanon and Iran-Israel tensions heightened.

Analysts say the increased U.S. military presence in the Pacific is to counter any threat by China in the 50-plus days leading up to Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. The presence in the Middle East, where multiple carriers were redirected from the Pacific over the summer, will be reduced.

Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a 26-year U.S. Navy veteran, said, "You're entering a period where the Chinese are positioning for a test of our resolve, and so having that stepped up presence is timely."

"China is clearly the number one threat," Sadler said, adding the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden "is in a place where they feel like they can move away" from the Middle East, following the latest round of Iranian missile attacks against Israel and Israel's retaliatory strike.

Jacob Stokes, deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at Center for a New American Security, said, "China is going to try and test the Trump administration early, probably around Taiwan or the South China Sea, or both." The test, Stokes said, will attempt to determine which of the two sides of Trump Beijing will be dealing with.

"They've seen transactional Trump, that wants to make a deal. Or are they going to get confrontational Trump, which is the way they would characterize his policies from mid to late 2018 on through COVID."

While the U.S. has 11 carriers, most are under maintenance or have just returned from long deployments, leaving only a handful sea ready. As the wars intensified in Ukraine and Gaza, the Pentagon, under Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, prioritized those regions over the Western Pacific.

Stokes said leaders at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command "want to reset the baseline and be well situated in terms of military assets and how they're postured come January."

Sadler said the carrier gap in the Western Pacific over the past few months had led to Chinese provocations in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.

"It's not to say that had there been an extra carrier strike group, that wouldn't have happened. But the president would have had more options to signal displeasure with the Chinese in terms that they could understand," he said.

To fill that void, the navy first deployed the San Diego-based USS Theodore Roosevelt to the region, only to quickly redirect the aircraft carrier to help out in the Middle East. Although another San Diego-based carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, was sent to Asia, that too was redirected to the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 13:50

"Dumb-Shit Grandstanding" - What Part Of 'Mandate' Don't You Understand?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"This version of Trump knows what buttons to press, he knows where the bodies are buried, he’s absorbed their worst and now he is about to throw it right back at them." 

- Jeff Childers

You have every reason to believe that this arrogant, malicious, leviathan government, and the vicious intel / lawfare blob at its vanguard, is about to be turned upside-down, inside-out, and sideways. Every appointment by Mr. Trump is a dose of chemotherapy to this malignant beast, aimed at all its diseased organs. The rogue cells within are going to die hard, struggle against their extinction, shriek and thrash as the treatment proceeds. That is, if it is allowed to proceed.

And so: rumors arise of a coup to prevent it from happening. The benchmark version goes like this: “Joe Biden” keeps up his stupid provocation of Russia with those medium-range ATACMS missiles until Mr. Putin is forced to respond with a strike against a NATO member, say, a military base in Poland used to stage and target the ATACMS. Under NATO’s Article Five — an attack against one is an attack against all — Europe and the US must go to war against Russia. This becomes the pretext for “Joe Biden” to declare an extraordinary emergency (or Kamala Harris, if “JB” can be shoved out under the 25th Amendment.) The inauguration of the newly-elected government must needs be postponed. . . .

Such a move would surely provoke a domestic insurrection against the leviathan and Civil War Two would be on. Or else you might expect a swift counter-coup out of the US military not playing along. Mr. Putin, too, could demur from playing the game, that is, just not go for the bait, refrain from striking any NATO territory. After all, his beef is officially with Mr. Zelensky’s Kiev government. Russia could just pound Kiev until that government ceases to exist. So far Mr. Putin has carefully refrained from destroying the historic city center, mainly hitting power plants to turn off the heat and light to make life extremely uncomfortable in the Ukraine capital with winter coming on. But he could level the city.

The choice is Mr. Zelensky’s, and has been for months as his forces, armaments, and prospects dwindle. He could suspend hostilities, go to talks, even raise a white flag and put an end to the needless suffering. Under no circumstances will he get the Donbas or Crimea back. I doubt that Russia wants to take over the rest of Ukraine, considering the cost of having to support it indefinitely. Better that it should remain a sovereign state and look after itself — but neutral, demilitarized, and, if you like, de-Nazified. You understand that these will be Russia’s final terms? And that there is nothing unreasonable about them?

In short, the hypothetical coup would fail, and the Ukraine war will end, and Mr. Trump will get inaugurated if he is careful to avoid the blob’s assassins until January 20. As for Rep. Jamie Raskin’s scheme to prevent a Trump swearing-in on account of him being “an insurrectionist,” you can file that under “dumb-shit grandstanding.” So, the new government will come in, the new department chiefs will get into office, and the leviathan will get the therapeutic treatment it deserves.

You understand, of course, that the federal bureaucracy is a perverse reincarnation of the old 19th century “Spoils System,” an entrenched, self-replicating matrix of parasites. Both parties have nourished it, but the Democrats have made it their extra-special pet since Mr. Obama was in charge of things. He and his AG Eric Holder arranged for the DOJ to target their political enemies and for the to FBI mutate into a US-KGB, and that behavior persisted for eight long years since Obama and Holder left the scene. The malice all flowed from those departments, since any opponent of the Party’s agenda could get lawfared, financially drained, and put out of business. The party’s sole agenda, really, was to just feed the bureaucratic parasite, and grow it ever-larger and more dependent on the party in order to increase its power.

There will necessarily be confusion over the clean-up of all that. Because of Mr. Trump being the primary target of DOJ / FBI enmity, blob publicists will try to color it as “personal retribution,” but it is really the proper response of an aggrieved nation. A large number of current and former officials deserve to face charges for what they did, serious crimes against their fellow citizens. They also deserve fair trials to determine their culpability. The catch is, these proceedings ought to take place outside the DC federal district court, which is itself parasitized and corrupted.

Outside of these criminal proceedings, the rest is executive process — just firing a lot of dead-weight and bureaucrat officials who contribute nothing but inertia and impediment to the normal functioning of a society. And deconstructing whole agencies. The blob will likely attempt to block that effort by marshaling its own allied lawyer army to bombard the courts with suits and writs. If the Trump team does its work carefully, with scrupulous attention to correct process, that offensive can be overcome and worked-around.

After a while, we’ll discover just how much government is really necessary, sort of like twitter did, after Elon Musk fired 80-percent of the loafers on his payroll. Since so much of the US economy has shifted insidiously into government, this downscaling is apt to be painful, but especially for the local economy of Washington DC, which is to say, a grift economy of overlapping rackets. Upgrade a few laws and whole industries — such as lobbying by military contractors — might be wiped out. But you have to ask: how was that ever a good thing?

For now, we give thanks that important changes are probably underway. Stolen liberties will be returned. You will be free to succeed or fail in a society of voluntary transactions. That was always the essence of being an American, not being a client of a fake therapeutic state, savior of all, but really just protector of its own.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 13:25

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 November

Due to the Thanksgiving calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported higher year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 November. ...

17-23 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 59.7% (+20.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$150.49 (+8.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$89.80 (+31.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.  Note: Occupancy will be down sharply next week due to the timing of Thanksgiving (the reverse of this week).

"This Week, The Second Trump Trade War Started"

By Philip Marey, Rabobank Senior US Equity Strategist

Tortilla wrap with bacon

This week, the second Trump trade war started. On Monday, there was some market relief after Trump’s announcement on Friday that he would nominate Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. However, that changed on Tuesday after Trump made his tariff threats to Canada, Mexico and China.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not take long to make her own threat of retaliatory tariffs against the US. On Tuesday she said “if there’s a tariff, another one will come in response.” However, on Wednesday, Sheinbaum and Trump had a telephone conversation that she called “excellent” and he “very productive.” Sheinbaum had assured Trump that migrant caravans are no longer reaching the US-Mexican border and she also said that they had discussed increased security cooperation. US-Mexican security relationships had soured after the US had lured a Mexican drug lord out of the country into US custody, without informing Mexican authorities. This led to a split in the Sinaloa cartel and an internal battle of several months that has left more than 400 people dead.

In contrast, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau avoided confrontation and on Tuesday he said he had held a “good” conversation with Trump on Monday night shortly after the Truth Social post and that “we talked about some of the challenges that we can work on together.” On Wednesday, Trudeau met virtually with the provincial premiers to discuss a “Team Canada” approach to Trump’s tariff threat and to stress the importance of unity in Canadian reactions to Trump’s tariff threats. To get Michael Moore’s take on an escalating US-Canada conflict, I would suggest his 1995 film Canadian Bacon.

China, which is blamed for not doing enough to stem the outflow of precursors to fentanyl, reacted calmly. On Tuesday, the Foreign Ministry said that the US should “cherish” China’s goodwill over the issue and added that China was willing to continue working together. Of course, the Chinese reaction is likely to be more forceful if the tariffs are actually implemented.

Trump’s beef with Canada, Mexico and China is about fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration. In his first term, Chinese companies did not only supply the precursors, but also fentanyl itself. Trump was successful in getting the Chinese to regulate the production and sale of fentanyl in China. However, production shifted to Mexico, with Chinese companies providing the chemicals needed to make fentanyl. In 2019, Trump also threatened Mexico with tariffs unless migration was reduced. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador succumbed to US pressure and deployed the Mexican military to the borders.

Immigration was a major campaign theme during the US presidential election and the tariff threat is only the beginning of a likely ambitious effort to stem the flow of illegal aliens into the US. While the President-Elect arguably has a strong mandate from US voters to enhance border security and deport undocumented immigrants, these policies will pose challenges to many US businesses. As we showed in Trump border policy and immigrant labor supply, food & agriculture and construction are especially vulnerable given the high dependency on undocumented immigrant labor. While there are still many unemployed US citizens who could do the work, most of them do not find the jobs that undocumented immigrants do very attractive. Therefore US businesses that depend on immigrant labor should prepare for possible labor shortages.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 12:05

Boris Johnson Calls For NATO Troops On The Ground In Ukraine Yet Again

After months of rumors surrounding possible peace talks in Turkey that might have ended the war in Ukraine not long after it reignited in 2022, multiple sources confirmed that British Politician and former PM Boris Johnson showed up in Kyiv to dismiss the negotiations and told the Ukrainians "let's just fight".  These sources include David Arahamiya, the leader of Ukraine’s ruling party, Tory MP Nadine Dorries and Vladimir Putin himself.

Putin reiterated in his interview with Tucker Carlson that Russia supports a negotiated settlement with Ukraine, and plans were very much underway to making that happen before Boris Johnson stopped it. https://t.co/85LGRfJZzY

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) February 9, 2024

Johnson continues to deny the peace deal claims and "fact checkers" engage in extensive mental gymnastics to argue that there was no "official deal" put to paper, therefore Johnson didn't sabotage anything.  In other words, if a politician ruins a peace deal in its infancy before it is drafted then he's not culpable for the war that follows. 

The bottom line? Johnson, a prominent British official with ties to NATO, showed up in the middle of early negotiations and told the Ukrainians to fight instead of pursuing peace.  This alone would have given the Ukrainians a false sense of security that NATO forces would intervene and fight for them.

Boris Johnson would go on to promote a surge in military recruitment in the UK, and supported calls for conscription from military officials.  He has also suggested NATO boots on the ground in the region on multiple occasions - A move that would immediately be seen by Russia as an escalation to world war.

In a recent interview with the Daily Telegraph, the former British PM promoted the idea of British forces entering Ukraine as a part of a "peacekeeping plan."  The presence of any NATO country's troops in Ukraine, even those not on the front line, would be seen as a tip-toe towards direct confrontation by the Kremlin.  

In early November, Johnson argued that if Donald Trump pulled US support for Ukraine in order to force a peace deal, Britain might send troops into the fray.  The argument sounds like a thinly veiled threat:  If the US tries to force a peace deal, then Britain will send troops, escalate the war and ensure that no peace is possible.   

Johnson also asserted that if Russia gets the upper hand in the conflict then Britain may deploy it's forces regardless in order to "defend Europe."  Ukraine's eastern defenses are currently being overrun by ongoing Russian attrition tactics.  This reality in combination with Trump's avalanche election win seems to have triggered establishment ghouls into a frenzy of escalation with Joe Biden giving the greenlight on long range missile strikes coordinated directly by NATO forces.   

To be clear, Ukraine is not part of the EU nor is it a member of NATO.  NATO warhawks like Johnson have consistently claimed that Russia's intent is to invade greater Europe (domino effect propaganda similar to the Vietnam War), yet there is still no evidence to support this.  The western media has spent the better part of the conflagration claiming that Russian forces have been chewed up beyond repair in Ukraine; at the same time they suggest Russia somehow has the strength to invade the EU. 

The majority of the US and European public have confirmed time and time again that they will not support direct conflict with Russia.  They will not volunteer to fight in such a war and will not submit to military conscription.  Around 70% of Americans say they prefer negotiations to end the war.  Only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can win and 52% of Ukrainians say they want negotiations and a quick end to the war.   Despite this, establishment politicians continue to ignore the overwhelming calls for peace in Ukraine.        

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 11:05

Epps Loses Defamation Case Against Fox News

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

Just months after a judge dismissed Nina Jankowicz’s much-hyped defamation lawsuit against Fox, a federal district court judge in Delaware, Judge Jennifer L. Hall, has dismissed Ray Epps’s defamation lawsuit. The Jan. 6 rioter said the network falsely identified him as an FBI informant.

U.S. District Court Judge Jennifer L. Hall granted Fox News’ motion to dismiss the suit.

In the original complaint, Epps made a defamation per se claim and a false light claim.

Epps and his wife have clearly been through a nightmare of threats and innuendo. However, this public controversy was discussed by various networks and the Jan. 6th  Committee. It was also a matter of legitimate public debate and commentary, with people on both sides expressing their views on the evidence and underlying allegations.

The problem for the court was trying to draw a line when coverage and commentary becomes defamation on such subjects. The chilling effect on free speech can be immense. The Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that tort law could not be used to overcome First Amendment protections for free speech or the free press. The Court sought to create “breathing space” for the media by articulating that standard that now applies to both public officials and public figures. The status imposes the higher standard first imposed in New York Times v. Sullivan for public officials, requiring a showing of “actual malice” where media had actual knowledge of the falsity of a statement or showed reckless disregard whether it was true or false.

Now based in Utah, Epps alleged his life was upended after former Fox host Tucker Carlson repeatedly described him as a federal agent who helped instigate the attack on the Capitol, which was an attempt to stop the certification of the election of Joe Biden.

BREAKING: Ray Epps, the only January 6 protester who actually told people to go into the Capitol, has been officially sentenced to one year probation, $500 restitution, and 100 hours community service.

While many J6 protesters are rotting in jail for non-violent crimes, Epps… pic.twitter.com/qPWwktAPbu

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) January 9, 2024

The breathing space cuts both ways. In reporting on the dismissal of the Epps lawsuit, it is notable that the Associated Press is still referring to Jan. 6 as an “insurrection” rather than a riot. Curiously, when you hit the link on “insurrection,” it goes to an article on the dropping of the Smith case, which notably did not charge Trump or anyone else with insurrection or even incitement. Yet, the AP is still reporting “the insurrection” as a fact.

The dismissal of Jankowicz directly addressed the dangers of using the courts to try to silence your critics. The case backfired on Jankowicz in prompting a court to expressly state that what she has been advocating is censorship. After holding that people are allowed to criticize Jankowicz as protected opinion, the court added:

“I agree that Jankowicz has not pleaded facts from which it could plausibly be inferred that the challenged statements regarding intended censorship by Jankowicz are not substantially true. On the contrary … censorship is commonly understood to encompass efforts to scrutinize and examine speech in order to suppress certain communications.

“The Disinformation Governance Board was formed precisely to examine citizens’ speech and, in coordination with the private sector, identify ‘misinformation,’ ‘disinformation,’ and ‘malinformation.’ … that objective is fairly characterized as a form of censorship.”

Jankowicz previously solicited significant contributions on the promise of this ill-conceived lawsuit. Nevertheless, Jankowicz is still being touted as a hero and enlisted to explain who to combat “disinformation.”

The calls for greater censorship are likely to only increase after the election. However, we have seen figures like Hillary Clinton call on Europeans to force the censorship of Americans.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/29/2024 - 10:45