The Big Picture

10 Monday AM Reads

My California morning reads:

AI and the Fable of the ATMs: Contrary to the usual story, ATMs did reduce teller demand. (Paul Kedrosky)

Jamie Dimon Sees an End on the Horizon. But Not Yet. After two decades, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO says he has three or four more years on the job, or maybe more. But even he’s talking about what comes next for himself and the bank. (Barron’s) see also Warren Buffett’s Sage Advice About Fear and Greed Is a Trap in This Market: The reflexive “be greedy when others are fearful” crowd may be walking into a trap—this isn’t a garden-variety selloff, and the Oracle’s maxim needs more nuance right now. (Marketwatch)

• Things I Wish I’d Known Before Buying an EV: A practical reality check on EV ownership—charging logistics, repair headaches, and other things the marketing brochures conveniently leave out. Rising oil prices have more people thinking about going electric, but it’s worth considering potential challenges with repairs, charging and other factors. (Wall Street Journal)

Why So Many Americans Online Suddenly Want to Become Chinese: “Chinamaxxing” is the latest absurdist internet meme that reveals just how disillusioned younger generations are. (Slate)

What are the biggest price determinants for watches? Hard-to-find modern luxury watches and high-quality historical collector’s items continue to fetch exceptionally high prices on the secondary market in 2026. Four and five-figure sums for rare vintage watches are not uncommon. (Chrono24 Magazine)

• Apple Is Way Behind in AI—and Still Making a Fortune From It Apple’s artificial-intelligence revenue is set to top $1 billion this year, reassuring investors. Its artificial-intelligence revenue is set to top $1 billion this year, reassuring investors wary of rivals’ sky-high spending (Wall Street Journal)

Thousands have swooned over this MAGA dream girl. She’s made with AI. A viral fake of an Army service member spotlights a new trend in online attention harvesting: part patriotism, part porn and 100 percent computer-made. (Washington Post)

In Favor of Enjoying Things on Purpose: Even though we are born enjoyment-mongers, we tend to overlook the greatest and most reliable source of enjoyment, which is our ability to consciously enjoy the stuff that happens anyway. We barely even talk about it. A case for deliberate pleasure—paying attention to what you’re eating, listening to, or watching instead of letting everything blur into background noise. (Raptitude)

• Who Am I When I Care? Emotion Through the Lens of Franz Boas. Does culture make emotion? Boas helps solve the puzzle of where our emotional lives actually originate: in our selves or in the cultures around us (Aeon)

• How Scientists Unlocked the Secret of a $400 Skin Cream: There’s a room in an Estée Lauder-owned facility on Long Island where kelp swirls around in giant kettles while scientists pump sounds of the ocean. Playing Music to Kelp. La Mer claims the magic of its bestselling products happens in a lab where chemists brew–and DJ for–the ‘Miracle Broth.’ (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

 

Huge Reversal of Senate Control Odds Since Iran War Began

Source: Adam Ozimek.

 

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10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• How Epstein Collected Insider Tips on Stocks and Startups From His Network: Jeffrey Epstein collected confidential information from well-connected associates, including a Gates adviser and a JPMorgan executive. Files show several associates shared confidential materials the sex offender sometimes used to invest for himself. (Wall Street Journal) see also Epstein Files Exposed Her Name. Now Svetlana Pozhidaeva Tells Her Story. A former Russian model and Epstein ‘assistant’ explains how she and other adult victims spent years entrapped by him. (Wall Street Journal)

The Biggest Active Stock Funds Picked the Right Stocks. They Still Lagged: A hypothetical portfolio of the largest active US stock funds’ collective holdings would have beaten the funds themselves. (Morningstar)

The War with Iran May Already be Lost. If wars were won by bombastic press conferences, the White House should already be planning another military parade in our capital’s streets. For all intents and purposes, the war with Iran might have been lost before the first missile was launched. (Steady State) see also ‘God, It’s Terrifying’: How the Pentagon Got Hooked on AI War Machines: An excerpt from the coming book Project Maven shows how the US enlisted Silicon Valley in its vision for AI warfare, now playing out in Ira. (Businessweek)

A Reddit Post, An AI Hallucination, And Two Lawyers Who Never Checked Citations Walk Into A Dog Custody Case: In a system of precedents that is designed to achieve consistency, predictability, and adherence to the rule of law, the judiciary cannot function properly unless judges and lawyers confirm the authenticity of cited authorities and review them to evaluate their holdings and reasoning. When the participants fail to perform this basic function, it compromises these institutional values and diminishes faith in the judicial process. (TechDirt)

The 49MB Web Page: This is an absolutely devastating deconstruction of the current web landscape. I implore you to pause here, and read Bose’s entire amply illustrated essay. If active distraction of readers of your own website was an Olympic Sport, news publications would top the charts every time. (That Shubham)

• Shoot the Messenger The perfect person can read a social science paper and immediately spot the flaws. The class of people who shape public debate can’t see our own blind spots. (The Argument)

• A U.S. Citizen Now Runs Mexico’s Top Drug Cartel—and Targeting Him Is Complicated  The California-born stepson of the late kingpin ‘El Mencho’ enjoys constitutional protections other capos could only dream of  An American citizen now appears to be in charge of Mexico’s most powerful drug cartel, potentially complicating U.S. efforts. (wsj.com)The California-born stepson of the late kingpin ‘El Mencho’ enjoys constitutional protections other capos could only dream of (Wall Street Journal)

The Rise and Fall of Peter Attia’s Longevity Empire: Attia built his brand on trust and credibility. The revelation of a yearslong relationship with Jeffrey Epstein has upended that. (Businessweek)

• How $154.62 in Gift Card Fraud Led to a Man’s Death in ICE Detention  Chaofeng Ge was found dead in ICE custody last year, hanging in a shower stall with his hands and feet bound behind his back. His family wants answers. (Documented)

• Why More U.S. Doctors Are Moving to Canada: Wendell Potter, a former insurance industry insider, on the accelerating physician brain drain to Canada—a healthcare system under stress is now exporting its talent. Recruiting agencies report a surge of interest from U.S. doctors frustrated with prior authorizations, corporate consolidation, and insurance red tape that often delays or denies care. (Health Care Un-Covered)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

 

How the Iran War Ignited a Geoeconomic Firestorm

Source: Council on Foreign Relations

 

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MiB: Bill Miller IV, CIO, PM, Miller Value Fund



 

 

This week, I speak with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and the Portfolio Manager for the Miller Value Fund about his start in investing. We discuss the rise of bitcoin, and how it may mirror technology in general. We also discuss his firm’s approach to high concentration and conviction investing.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.

 


 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

 

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Inside OpenAI’s Race to Catch Up to Claude Code: OpenAI is scrambling to catch up in the AI coding agent space, where Anthropic’s Claude Code has established a formidable lead. The competitive dynamics are fascinating. Why is the biggest name in AI late to the AI coding revolution? (Wired)

• Traders Are Ditching Giant Hedge Funds to Set Their Own Terms: Some are eschewing multimillion-dollar pay packages and access to resources at big firms. (Bloomberg)

• Why Tech Giants Are Ditching the Power Grid: Seeking power for data centers, Meta and other companies plan to use equipment that is expensive and polluting. It is the industrial version of what homeowners might do to get through a hurricane. Some technology companies are planning to rely on off-grid gas.  (New York Times)

• The Tesla Influencers Leaving the ‘Cult’: Tesla superfans are defecting en masse after what many called a “bait and switch”—when your most loyal evangelists turn on you, you’ve got a brand crisis, not just a PR problem.  The EV manufacturer is supported by a robust online community. But Elon Musk’s politics and overblown hype about Full Self-Driving are turning some loyalists away. (Wired)

• How Jeff Bezos Upended The Washington Post: The Bezos era at the Post has entered a turbulent new chapter—layoffs, editorial shifts, and questions about whether billionaire ownership and journalistic independence can coexist. The billionaire newspaper owner, dissatisfied by years of losses, wants the newsroom to double productivity with half its budget. (New York Times)

• Chinese Diplomacy in the Middle East War: Talking with Arabs, Voting with Russia China’s diplomatic efforts this week have been worth a post. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been working the phones. (The China-MENA Newsletter)

What the war has done to Iranians: A civilian in Tehran chronicles a country trapped between bombardment and repression—too terrorized to move, let alone start an uprising. (New Yorker)

• 23 Learnings on Building Community and Holding Space: A thoughtful distillation of what it takes to build real community—relevant reading for anyone managing teams, clients, or just trying to be more intentional about human connection. Re-composting learnings from failure, utopia, and everything in between (Wellness Wisdom)

Agents Over Bubbles. There is a weird paradox in terms of AI prognostication: on one hand, you don’t want to be the one to completely dismiss the most terrifying doomsday scenarios; who wants to be found out to be foolishly optimistic? At the same time, there is also pressure to give credence to the possibility that we are in a bubble, and all of this hype and spending is going to go belly up. Thompson argues the AI bubble narrative is overblown because agents represent genuine productivity gains, not just hype—a thoughtful counter to the skeptics, even if the timing is conveniently bullish. (Stratechery)

There are no psychopaths: Virtually everything you think you know about psychopathy has been thoroughly debunked. Why does this zombie idea live on? (Aeon)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

Metaverse was a costly wrong turn, but it’s hardly the only money-burning technology misstep

Source: Sherwood

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10 Friday AM Reads

My first day of Spring (yay!) reads:

Finance Bros to Tech Bros: Don’t Mess With My Bloomberg Terminal: Professional investors spend more time with the computer system than they do with their spouses. So when AI evangelists declared it ‘cooked,’ it was war. A battle of insults and threats has broken out between the tech world and Wall Street. (WSJ)

• Bond Traders No Longer Price In Any Chance of Fed Cut in 2026: Bond traders are no longer pricing in any chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year after the Bank of England stoked concern that global central banks may need to act soon against inflation. Yields in Europe and the US climbed across maturities, with those on two-year US Treasuries — which are especially sensitive to expectations for Fed policy — higher by 11 basis points to 3.89%. (Bloomberg) see also Demand destruction has begun: The ominous headline comes from JPMorgan’s team of oil analysts, who have been churning out good stuff over the past few weeks. By mid-March, multiple sectors in Asia had shifted into a defensive footing as energy prices spiked and supplies tightened. The retreat in refined product flows is already visible: shipments from the region’s major exporters are down about 30% over the past 10 days versus the five‑month baseline, with preliminary data for the last week pointing to an even steeper 35% drop. The pullback is sharpest in jet fuel (down more than 40%), followed by gasoline (down more than 30%) and diesel (down more than 20%). (Financial Times)

Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In. Fed chair Jerome Powell says he will stay on the board until DOJ probe ends—and maybe longer. (Wall Street Journal)

• Concierge Nation: Welcome to White-Glove America: The growing bifurcation of the American experience—pay enough and you can skip every line, access every service, while everyone else waits. Two-tier citizenship with a smile. (Financial Times)

Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety: Government bonds are widely viewed as safe assets, especially in times of recession and financial crisis. This column presents evidence from three centuries of US and UK history showing that wars and pandemic-scale emergencies have in fact consistently produced large real losses for bondholders, challenging the conventional notion that government bonds are safe assets. Public debt sustainability has returned to the centre of policy debates.  (CEPR)

Cuba Is Going Dark: Cuba is facing what may be its worst electricity crisis since Fidel Castro’s revolutionaries swept to power 67 years ago. Following weeks of frequent blackouts, the national grid suffered a “complete disconnection” on Monday, according to the energy ministry. Blackouts are getting worse, and on some days the entire island is plunged into near total darkness. (New York Times)

Meet the Lobbyist Next Door: What do a Real Housewife, an Olympic athlete, and a doula have in common? They’re all being paid by an ad-tech startup as influencers—peddling not products but ideologies. Grassroots lobbying has gone professional, and your neighbor might be a paid advocate without you knowing it. The line between activism and astroturfing keeps blurring. (Wired)

• Anti-Semitism Is Becoming Mainstream: The Michigan synagogue attack is a grim data point in a trend that should alarm everyone—anti-Jewish violence is escalating and moving from the fringes to the mainstream.  (The Atlantic)

Trump is bombing the global economy: An inflationary downturn looms. Donald Trump just TACO’d again, did he? Mere days after insisting he would accept nothing less than “unconditional surrender” from Iran, on Monday he decided “we’ve already won” and that his war would end “very soon.”The geopolitical whiplash is wreaking havoc on oil prices, markets, and whatever’s left of policy credibility. (UnHerd) see also I’m Sick And Tired of All The Winning: A blistering assessment of how Gulf War Three is going—spoiler: not well—and the gap between triumphalist rhetoric and ground reality. Gulf War Three is not going well for the United States. (Drezner’s World)

How Did Flea Make a Jazz Album? Practice, Practice, Practice. The Red Hot Chili Peppers bassist returned to the trumpet, for a new record featuring Nick Cave, Thom Yorke and a core cast of contemporary jazz luminaries. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bill Miller IV, Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Miller Value Fund. Previously, he was at Legg Mason Capital Management covering specialty finance + consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Miller competed in the Poker World Series Main Event. He began his career working for his father, famed investor Bill Miller III.

 

The rising prices of oil and gasoline after the start of Iran war

Source: Reddit

 

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At the Money: Billionaire Divorce Planning

 

 

At the Money: Divorce Planning for the Ultra Wealthy (March 18, 2026)

DESCRIPTION:   Divorce is difficult under the best of circumstances, but when the uber wealthy split up, the complexities and potential missteps are even greater. And it’s not just because there are a few extra zeroes at the end of each number.

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Patrick Kilbane is General Counsel of the RIA Ullman Wealth Partners, where he leads the Divorce Advisory Group. In addition to his years as a divorce attorney, he is also a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst (CFDA) and Wealth Advisor at the firm.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

LinkedIn

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Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: You’re a rich girl, and you’ve gone too far
‘Cause you know it don’t matter anyway
You can rely on the old man’s money
You can rely on the old man’s money

Barry Ritholtz: Half of all marriages end in divorce. That’s just as true for the ultra wealthy and celebrities as it is for the rest of us. Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Kanye West, David Geffen. What happens when there are billions to divide?

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At the Money, we are gonna discuss the finances of divorce for the ultra wealthy. And full disclosure, I am not a billionaire and I remain happily married for 33 years.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Patrick Kilbane. He works at Oman Wealth Partners, where he is a CFP and General Counsel. He leads the Firm Divorce Advisory Group.

Patrick, the old joke is true. The wealthy are different than us, they have more money. All kidding aside, just how different are billionaire or celebrity divorces from the run of the mill splits?

Patrick Kilbane: Believe it or not, celebrity divorces and billionaire divorces are not all that different. They may have more assets, more zeros in the bank account, more complicated assets. But what you really gotta do is you gotta take a step back and you gotta figure out what you’re dealing with.

And then the biggest difference, I think, between a celebrity or a billionaire divorce versus the run-of-the-mill divorce is the privacy issues that go along with that. And we can unpack that a little bit more, but I think that’s a big non-financial issue that we’re dealing with in those cases.

Barry Ritholtz: So you’re talking NDAs and things along those lines for everybody involved?

Patrick Kilbane: NDAs and depending on what state you’re actually getting divorced in, there’s open government and sunshine laws that can get access to the divorce files.

One of the things that I enjoy working on the higher net worth and higher profile divorces is most of the time both parties to that case are very cognizant of that issue. So what we tend to do is we work very collaboratively and get everything settled and valued and tied up nice and neatly.

We are constantly thinking about how to keep away from the press.

 Barry Ritholtz: We mentioned people with a lot of zeros on their net worth. When you have ultra-high net worth couples splitting, are the mistakes that they make more or less the same as what we see in normal divorces? Or are there things that happen that are really problematic and potentially not reversible?

Patrick Kilbane: They are the same. The problem is a 1% tax mistake in your case or my case is magnified tremendously in that billionaire divorce case. The mistakes are the same. The consequences are tremendously more consequential in that type of case.

What I found in these higher net worth cases, generally, a young couple who starts making and earning and accumulating significant assets, they start doing what I call estate planning 2.0 or estate planning 3.0.

As I tell everybody, there’s two types of money problems, too much and not enough. And these people have the too much problem. So they have very complicated estate plans that are designed to not be busted apart.

This is a couple that’s been married 35, 40 years. They have SLATs and GRATs and QPRTs and these complicated estate vehicles. Well, okay, how do we separate them? What are the tax consequences as a result of separating or blowing apart that estate plan? And do we really want to do that?

Barry Ritholtz: I was out with a couple of guys right before the holidays. One of them was divorced, and another person at the table said, “Gee, I wish I could afford to get divorced.” That’s the too little money as opposed to too much money.

But let’s talk about the too much money. A lot of assets are not liquid. The headline value looks like it’s really big. How do you figure out the difference between what something appears, the liquidity factors, and then of course you end up either with a concentrated position or a tax headache, if there’s a liquidity event and sale for the divorce. How do you navigate those areas?

Patrick Kilbane: Let’s think back to the financial crisis. 2009, 2010. The late Elaine Wynn and Steve Wynn were getting a divorce and we think of Steve and Elaine Wynn, and we think about people that have tons of cash, cash flows, and no problem.

The Wynns had to liquidate shares of Wynn Resorts to free up money for their divorce case. So if Steve and Elaine Wynn have to sell assets from a liquidity standpoint in a divorce case, you can imagine that other business owners may have to do the same thing. And then, like you said, maybe the couples are going through a business sale or there’s some other liquidity event.

The great thing about these cases is generally people are motivated together to reduce tax liabilities and work together to maximize the size of the pie. And I think again, in the billionaire celebrity divorce case, there’s more motivation from both sides to do that.

Barry Ritholtz: What do you do with things that are kind of hard to put a dollar number on? Carried interest, RSUs, restricted stock, even deferred comp options. How do you navigate that?

Patrick Kilbane: There are all sorts of other professionals that are experts in placing a value on that.

You gotta step back and say, okay, what are my goals and what are my estranged spouse’s goals? So all of the contingent assets that you just rattled off, they have some sort of expectation that you’re still gonna have to be linked together for some period of time in order to realize those assets. And maybe the person who’s employed and is compensated in those alternative ways, they may not want to have their former spouse contacting their human resources department or their executive compensation department.

Then the question becomes, do we have enough liquidity to buy that person out? What sort of risk premium are we assigning on carry that may actually not materialize? Are these assets deferred? Are they qualified? Are they non-qualified? What sort of growth rate do we model? When we’re coming up with that, do we think that growth rate is fair?  If we don’t, then do we just say, okay, fine, I’m gonna roll the dice and I’m gonna ride along and see what happens with the carry and whether it materializes or not.

And then I think history is a good place to look to too. If we’ve been married for a significant amount of time, how have previous iterations of the funds done and how comfortable do I feel about carry actually being there.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned outside experts. How do you, as the advisor, coordinate with outside lawyers, accountants, and estate attorneys? You’re sort of trying to make sure the client isn’t stuck as a project manager as they’re undergoing this very emotional experience.

Patrick Kilbane: It’s not fair for the client to be the project manager. They’re the ones who are leaning on professional advice and having litigated for nearly a decade, I generally know all of the best of breed divorce lawyers in the area, and I’ll lean on law school classmates to find the best of breed divorce lawyers all over the country. And the divorce lawyer is going to be the quarterback. I think it’s very important to understand where the divorce is actually taking place.

So you can have a great expert witness, but if that expert witness is not known to the judge or they’re just simply not able to communicate their work product and make the court understand what’s going on, then they’re not a very good expert.

You really have to know where you’re at, know the experts that have significant experience doing this type of work. And then if that expert is well known to the court and to the opposing parties, and they do sort of a B-plus job, then maybe we need to sort of backstop them with that national expert that is really, really precise and really refined, that can help out.

I said this to a client the other day. I’m sort of the offensive coordinator. I know enough to be dangerous, but I’m not in the business of giving out legal advice. If I wanted to do that, I would still be an advocate. But we work together. I make suggestions. The head coach, the lawyer, has gotta be the one who ultimately implements the plan.

Barry Ritholtz: I mentioned in our introduction, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. It raises the question when you have highly appreciated founder stock at a very low-cost basis, and then all of the capital gains that come with getting liquid with that.

When I look at folks like Larry Ellison or Bezos or Gates, they’ve let it run for so long. What we saw with Gates is he literally, I think, just this week, there was an $8 billion transfer of Microsoft stock before the sell-off to the Melinda Gates Foundation.

What are best practices with dealing with things like founder stock at a really low cost basis?

Patrick Kilbane: You hit on one of the strategies right away. If philanthropy or charitable giving is part of the equation, then we bring in an expert in talking about, if a charitable foundation isn’t set up, what’s the best way to maximize a gift to charity. And you hit the nail on the head. Donating appreciated stock to the charity, to a charitable foundation, to a donor-advised fund is certainly a way to do that because, as you know, you get the market value for the contribution of the stock. You don’t have to worry about the capital gains tax, nor does the charity. Everybody wins.

 Barry Ritholtz: We saw that with Bezos, his wife also, right? A big chunk of Amazon stock went into her philanthropy. What do you do when it’s not a public company? What do you do when you have a highly valued private company? Things like tangible book value and goodwill. They’re so squishy. How do you put a dollar value on that?

 Patrick Kilbane: Sure. We’ll oftentimes bring in expert witnesses at valuing those privately held companies, and as you and I talked before the taping Barry, there’s two components to the value of a business. There’s the tangible assets and the goodwill. Well, in the context of a divorce case, we have to drill down into the goodwill and we have to say, alright, what component of the goodwill is the enterprise goodwill?

And then what component of the goodwill is attributable to the marital litigant? So let me give you an example. Let’s say there’s Barry Ritholtz Insurance Agency, or there’s State Farm Insurance where Barry Ritholtz is the registered agent. So if I live in some proximity to the State Farm office where Barry’s the registered agent, maybe I’m going there because I know Barry, but more likely than not, I’m going there because of the brand State Farm. So there’s more enterprise goodwill there. But if I’m going to the Ritholtz property and casualty insurance up the street, it’s probably because I rode the train to the city with Barry, maybe Barry sponsored the little league baseball team, Barry was referred to me by somebody else that you helped who needed those products. So those are the issues that we have to get into.

And on my team, you and I and your listeners know how significant small businesses are to the American economy. Well, in the higher net worth cases, a lot of these families have small businesses. It’s the biggest asset in the divorce case. So I found my business partner, Caitlin, she was working at a business brokerage firm. And I thought, man, this woman has great credentials, great presence. She has that business valuation expertise. So on my team, I have somebody who came from the valuation world to help the lawyers and our clients spot those business valuation issues because they are so essential to the divorce case.

Barry Ritholtz: Since we’re talking about ultra high net worth potential divorces, one of the things I was thinking about was liability protection. A lot of these families have umbrella policies. They have very specific lawsuits and potential liability they’re trying to shield themselves from. How do you manage that throughout a divorce process?

Patrick Kilbane: I mean, that’s probably the most important question that you’ve asked me. We can divide, we can design the best portfolio, have a great asset allocation, have strategy to redeem company stock and dilute concentrated positions. But if you don’t have the right protection in place, if you don’t have an umbrella policy, if you don’t have an umbrella policy that is taking into consideration uninsured motorists. And I’m gonna even back up before we even get to insurance and look at how assets are titled.

I live in Florida and Florida is one of the jurisdictions in the country where you can hold property as tenants by the entirety. And most of the other jurisdictions you can hold property as joint tenants with right of survivorship, and I don’t wanna make this a law class, but tenants by the entirety means that you and your spouse own an undivided 100% interest in that asset. Joint tenants with right of survivorship means that Barry and his wife each own 50%. So if you’re a tortfeasor and you don’t have an umbrella policy, I can go after 50% of your brokerage account, but if you hold it as tenants by the entirety, then you and your wife have to be the tortfeasor for me to try to go after those assets.

What about titling cars? How many advisors are looking at how their clients title their car? I’m dealing with a case right now where somebody that I know was killed by a 16-year-old motorist. Well, the insurance companies are smart. They don’t wanna just title the car in the kid’s name, right. They’ll charge a higher premium to make sure that either mom and or dad is also on the title. So they can have mom and dad’s assets be used to satisfy a judgment. So these are all the things that I try to help people look at and say, hey, look, just by the way you title your assets, you can shield yourself from a potential liability.

Barry Ritholtz: What are your thoughts on finding hidden assets, and not just Swiss bank accounts, but other ownership of companies, of real estate, of what have you that perhaps one of the spouses is not fully aware of?

Patrick Kilbane: Right? That’s why tax returns and corporate tax returns and following the money and watching where it goes is so significant. Most of the time, one spouse trusts the other spouse or has no dealings whatsoever with what’s going on at work and the business accounts and so on and so forth.

It’s really important. You talked about big money mistakes before. Before you agree to a settlement, get a CPA to help you sit down and take a look at the tax returns and see how the money’s flowing. Generally there are things on there that raise significant red flags, which may make you wanna pause and say, okay, I need to take a look at this. I need to look at the corporate bank accounts. How are these retained earnings consistent with other businesses in the same industry? Is this too much? Did the salary significantly change? Did distributions significantly change? How have the historical expenses changed right around the time that the divorce was starting to bubble to the surface?

Barry Ritholtz: So to wrap up, billionaire divorces aren’t all that different from run-of-the-mill divorces. Sure, there are a couple more zeros at the end of the asset list and some complications, but generally speaking, the risks, the boxes you wanna check and the other issues that you’re gonna run through aren’t all that different from traditional divorces.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

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Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

My mid-week morning train Malvern reads:

The stock market looks wild under the surface: The S&P 500 appears relatively calm on the surface this year, but dig a little deeper and you’ll find some wild swings. Dispersion hiding beneath calm headline indices — sector rotations, factor volatility, and the growing divergence between what the S&P shows and what individual stocks are doing. Investors have retreated from the Big Tech names that carried the market in recent years, putting downward pressure on stocks. By the numbers: The S&P 500 has fallen just 3% for the year, but that masks some big-time. (Axios)

The Biggest Active Stock Funds Picked the Right Stocks. They Still Lagged: A hypothetical portfolio of the largest active US stock funds’ collective holdings would have beaten the funds themselves. (Morningstar)

Who ate all the Chinese stock market returns? Long-term nominal GDP is the stuff earnings are made of. And emerging-market economies grow faster than developed ones. Put these two facts together and the case for long-term allocations to EM equities has looked compelling. But no matter how compelling, it hasn’t really worked for a long time. And it has singularly failed to work for investors in Chinese stocks over the past 25 years. While the biggest global economic story of the last three decades has been the rise and rise of China, Chinese stock price performance has been . . . well, a bit rubbish. China got rich. Less so equity punters. The structural reasons why China’s economic growth has so consistently failed to translate into equity market gains for foreign investors. (Financial Times)

Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes: Cliffwater fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions. A deep look at how private credit vehicles are layering complexity on top of complexity — and what that opacity means for investors who can’t see what they own. (Wall Street Journal)

When the Best Retirement Is No Retirement at All: The 60-plus crowd is hard at work, and it’s not (just) about the money.The emerging research and personal accounts behind why staying engaged in meaningful work — on your own terms — often produces better outcomes than full retirement. (Businessweek)

• Congress Weighs Axing FINRA. But Is SEC Ready to Pick Up the Slack?: The case for eliminating the broker-dealer self-regulator — and the serious capacity questions about whether the SEC could absorb the workload. (The Daily Upside)

• America’s Diminished Place In The World: Techdirt’s Mike Masnick on how failure to check executive overreach earlier created the conditions for the current collapse of American standing abroad. (TechDirt) see also • The US Seems to Be Deliberately Weakening its Global Position: A careful argument that the pattern of damage to alliances, institutions, and credibility isn’t incompetence — it looks intentional. (Phillip’s Newsletter)

Florida Is Trying to Ignore Measles Until It Can’t: Florida ranks third in measles cases and the state’s response has been conspicuous silence—a public health strategy best described as “pretend it isn’t happening.” Oh, and the state is in the midst of an outbreak. (The Atlantic)

Is MAGA in its cringe era? Trump 2.0 was supposed to be younger and cooler than what came before. The vibes have shifted. Signs that the cultural coalition holding Trumpism together may be fracturing — the aesthetic and attitudinal shifts that signal a movement losing its grip. (Washington Post)

Ticketmaster’s Grip on Live Concerts Is Finally Starting to Break: Live Nation’s settlement with the Justice Department is a big step toward accountability—and cheaper ticket prices. (Slate)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

Where rents are falling (or rising) most

Source: Axios

 

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Ill-Liquidity Premium


Source: Cambridge Associates/JPM assisted by Claude

 

 

There’s an excess of news flow from the SCOTUS rejection of IEEPA tariffs to the current Middle East/Iran war. I suspect some important items are getting overlooked.

Perhaps the biggest is the goings on in private credit.

I don’t want to get distracted by gates and redemptions, belated marks, or even blow-ups. Instead, let’s address the Tweepadock in the room. The combination of unfettered growth and massive consolidation has significantly reduced the number of public equities, even as public markets have grown enormously. This has created a huge surge in the number and variety of alternative asset classes, most notably private equity and debt.

Should you be considering adding illiquid debt, credit, equity, or RE, there are some ideas you may wish to consider. Too often, the debate gets framed in binary options, but the reality is far more complex and nuanced.

The Argument: The big selling point is that illiquid alternatives may improve your risk-adjusted returns, add diversification, and provide access to non-correlated returns. These are proven results from many top-tier managers. The drawbacks are illiquidity, lack of transparency, high fees, and (to borrow Cliff Asness’ phrase) volatility-laundering.

The biggest variables affecting all of the above are 1) Timing, or when you deploy your capital, and 2) Fund/Manager selection, or the exact fund and vintage you choose. It’s not as simple or clear-cut as much of the sales literature makes it out to be.

Illiquidity Premium: Investors in private alternatives select from a universe of options that do not provide daily liquidity. This creates a broad choice of potential investments that can (and sometimes do) generate a higher return than the public markets provide. The trade-off is that you have to be willing to tie up your capital for years at a time. And the caveat is that not all private investments generate an above-market return.

Do you need Privates? For the typical households with a diversified portfolio of stocks bonds whether through mutual funds and ETF’s or direct indexing, likely do not need alternatives. But that doesn’t mean they don’t want alts or aren’t interested in either additional returns and or diversification.

Households with $5,000,000 in investment portfolios or less are likely fully diversified, so long as they are willing to withstand the occasional market volatility and drawdown.

In the $5-10 million range, the main question is how long you’re willing to lock up capital. Life changes do happen, and if you need liquidity, exiting alternatives early can be costly. For households with portfolios over $10,000,000, the key question is whether alts meet their long-term goals and suit their financial planning needs.

Do Privates need you? As we’ve seen across all sorts of institutional products, the appeal of the retail investor is that they have become an immense pool of capital measured in the 10s of trillions of dollars. As the number of private funds have expanded many have exhausted how much they can tap the institutional investor base. It was inevitable that they would reach out o the 401K and retail investor base – the dollar amounts are simply catnip to so many funds.

Sturgeon’s Corollary: I’ve mentioned sturgeon’s law and its corollary too many times to count; the key element to remember is that most investment products are mediocre at best. This is true for mutual funds, ETF’s, SPACs, hedge funds, venture funds, as well as all forms of illiquid alts including private credit and debt.

I used Claude to access Cambridge Associates data and create the chart at top showing the dispersion among top and bottom quartiles of alternatives. Venture capital is the big outlier, with the widest disp[ersion imaginable. But private equity, and debt also have a very wide dispersion — good funds do a little better than public markets, and mediocre funds do much worse.

Quality: If you can get into the top decile (quartile even?) of alts/privates, that changes the calculus as to whether or not you should be deploying your capital in that direction.

The top tier is more than just good returns: it’s a long-term track record, transparency, reasonable fees, intelligent co-investors, and a general high degree of ethics and professionalism. I have heard far too many horror stories about alts gone wrong to advise you not to blindly stumble into too many of the available options.

Conclusion:  I remain unconvinced that the median alternative fund is worth the fees, illiquidity, and complexity. Unless you can get into a top fund, it is simply not worth the headaches.

 

 

 

Previously:
Sturgeon’s Corollary (December 4, 2025)

Your Co-Investors in BREIT (December 12, 2022)

 

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NOTE: I wrote this entire post myself. I used Claude to generate the chart and table above; I use Grammarly to spell/grammar check the Word doc it was drafted in. 

 

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

My early two for Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

• Et Tu, S&P 500?: Robin Wigglesworth on the fascinating possibility that S&P index rules may be rewritten to accommodate SpaceX—the implications for passive investing and index integrity are enormous. (Financial Times) see also S&P Weighs Rule Changes That Would Speed SpaceX’s S&P 500 Entry: S&P Dow Jones is considering rule changes that would pave the way for SpaceX to join the index—a move that could reshape both the index and the IPO timeline for the world’s most valuable private company. (Yahoo Finance)

• Iran Has Just Fired the Most Dangerous Shot of This War and It Wasn’t a Missile: The argument that Iran’s most potent weapon isn’t military but economic—the oil market disruption may prove more damaging than any missile strike. (European Business Magazine)

• Judge Smacks Down Trump’s Investigation Into Jerome Powell: The judiciary steps in to protect Fed independence. The attempt to investigate the Fed chair was always legally dubious — now a judge has confirmed it. A federal judge said the Department of Justice had found “zero evidence” of wrongdoing. (New Republic) see also Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System v. United States of America (District Court Decision: Federal Reserve System v. United States (District of D.C., File No. 26-12)

• China’s Edge in an Oil Shock: Electric Cars and Renewables: Beijing’s massive investments in EVs and renewables are paying off precisely when it matters most—China is far better insulated from this oil shock than the West. (New York Times)

• How the Housing Market Split in Two: The housing market has fractured into haves and have-nots, with affordability varying wildly by region. The data here is granular and alarming. New and existing homeowners live in different worlds (Agglomerations) see also The Great American Condo Crisis: If America wants to remain a nation of homeowners, it needs to start building condos again—a compelling argument that the missing middle of housing is the condo, not just the duplex. If the U.S. wants to remain a nation of homeowners, it has no choice but to start building condos again. (The Atlantic)

• Encyclopedia Britannica Sues OpenAI Over AI Training: Britannica and Merriam-Webster take OpenAI to court over training data, adding to the growing pile of copyright litigation that will ultimately define what AI companies can and can’t scrape. (Reuters)

• Donald Trump Warns NATO Faces ‘Very Bad Future’ If Allies Fail to Help US in Iran: Trump demands NATO allies share the burden of the Iran conflict, threatening consequences—the transatlantic relationship continues to deteriorate at the worst possible moment. “It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said, arguing that Europe and China are heavily dependent on oil from the Gulf, unlike the US. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato,” he added. (Financial Times).

• How Rivian Is Pulling Off Its $45,000 R2 Electric SUV: Rivian’s $45K R2 is the EV that could actually move the mass-market needle—if they can execute on manufacturing at scale, which remains the billion-dollar question. How the automaker’s engineering team learned to say no—or make some compromises to create a smaller, more affordable electric car. (Wired) see also Why Rivian Is Holding the $45,000 Base Model R2 Until ‘Late 2027’: The fine print on Rivian’s affordable R2: the base model won’t ship until late 2027, which is an eternity in the EV market and a test of consumer patience. (TechCrunch)

• Satellite Firm Pauses Imagery After Revealing Iran’s Attacks on US Bases: Planet Labs stops publishing satellite imagery of US bases hit by Iranian strikes to avoid giving adversaries battle damage assessments—the tension between transparency and operational security in real time. (Ars Technica)

The reviews are in. It’s not looking good, America. Allies are giving the U.S. one-star and two-star ratings on its efforts to protect democracy and dependability in a crisis. (Politico) see also America’s Diminished Place in the World and the Consequences of Not Impeaching: A sharp assessment of how America’s global standing has eroded and the institutional failures that accelerated the decline—the consequences of not holding power accountable are now impossible to ignore. (Techdirt)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

Quantifying the gas shock: Every 50 cent increase is a $75B annual drag on consumer purchasing power

Source: LinkedIn

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