The Big Picture

10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning reads:

• Private Equity Has a Problem. Uncle Sam Says Your Wallet Can Fix It.: A government proposal would help fund managers sell alternative investments to a much wider audience. Wall Street’s problem becomes Main Street’s opportunity, or vice versa. (Wall Street Journal)

• ‘Things may get ugly’: Meta’s new AI Muse is about to make the internet more annoying: Thomas Germain: the web was built for humans, and Meta’s agent is about to start using it on their behalf. Someday we’ll redesign the internet for tools like this. Until then, you’re in for a wild ride. (BBC) see also Meta open sources code to let you make Muse AI gadgets: Meta now lets you connect Muse to your own hardware to put on your displays or a Raspberry Pi.​ Jay Peters: Meta now lets anyone build hardware around its Muse agent, suggesting projects like an E Ink reminder display. (The Verge)

• AI Agents Got Cash to Trade Stocks. Here’s What They Bought and Sold—Repeatedly. An investor gave AI agents $500 each and provided the same daily prompt: Make as much money as you can. Stockbrokers don’t need to worry…yet. (Barron’s)

• Disney World solved a problem that could save America billions every year: Our cities are built atop a dangerous obstacle course of cables. The Magic Kingdom found a better way. (Vox)

​• The Hot New Real Estate Scam: Fraudsters are gaming apartment leasing and tenant screening, and landlords are paying for it. A new wave of fraudsters is about to add a huge headache to your next home hunt — and could even drive up your rent (Business Insider)

​• A Warning About ‘Model Welfare’: Mustafa Suleyman is blunt: AIs are not conscious, do not suffer and have no innate preferences. He takes aim at the labs, Anthropic’s Claude constitution included, for treating them as if they might. (Mustafa Suleyman)

• The wealthy Cuban Americans ready and waiting for Havana to fall: “The intention of this evening is to gather under one roof the most prominent Cuban-American entrepreneurs in Miami-Dade County,” says CANCC president Juan Omar Sixto, “and the objective is to be in Cuba once the regime falls”. His guests are convinced that moment is nigh.​ Will Grant in Miami meets the exiles and investors with business plans drawn up and ready to go the moment the regime goes. (BBC)

• Dogs use a surprising method to understand human language, new study suggests: In a brain activity study, canines seemed to listen for consonants to figure out when one word ends and another begins.​ Maggie Penman on Hungarian research in Science: dogs pick out words in streams of speech the way human infants do, by listening for consonants. (Washington Post) see also The People Learning To Understand Wolves: A growing archive of wolf howls could transform how researchers count, study, and protect one of North America’s most contested predators.(Atmos)

• Paint it black: Efficacy of increased wind turbine rotor blade visibility to reduce avian fatalities,.Painting one of the blades of a wind turbine black can reduce bird deaths by 70 per cent. (Ecology and Evolution)

• The 25 Photos That Changed Fashion Forever: Two photographers, a fashion designer, a stylist, a creative director, an editor and a supermodel debate the images that have had an indelible impact on how we dress. (New York Times)

Video of the day: Elon Musk Is Building $119B TERAFAB That Shouldn’t Exist

Be sure to check out our latest Masters in Business interview with Omar Aguilar, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Schwab Asset Management, which runs more than $1 trillion across over 100 ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed account strategies. He has held both the CEO and CIO titles since 2022

 

The VIX is NOT on the MOVE

Source: Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

 

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The Knowledge Project Podcast: Bill Ackman

 

Shane Parrish’s Knowledge Project:

Bill Ackman is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, one of the most closely watched investment firms in the world. In this conversation, he breaks down how he tells the difference between real innovation from hype, what he looks for before making a billion-dollar investment, and why he sold Netflix—and later bought it back. He also shares the mistakes that reshaped his investment process and his plan to build a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway. Bill also opens up about something far more personal: his daughter Lucy’s sudden brain hemorrhage, the hours before surgery, and her ongoing recovery. He describes running his business from a hospital room and the institute he and his wife are building to help other families facing similar challenges.

 

 

 

 

 

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10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• I Deliberately Bet Like a Problem Gambler.DraftKings Made Me a VIP. Jake Pearson blew $1,800 in one night chasing losses with bigger bets, a textbook warning sign. The next day DraftKings invited him to audition for its VIP program. (ProPublica)

• How Cities Are Forced to Funnel License Plate Data to a Massive Federal Surveillance Program: How the federal government built a massive database of license plate reader data through an anti-drug trafficking program. (404) see also  19 Out of 21 Late-Model Cars Tested Shared Data With 3rd Parties, Including Big Tech: Infotainment screens and connected features are now standard, and a new study finds nearly every car tested is passing driver data along to outside companies. A new study from Northeastern University finds late-model vehicles and their companion apps are sending vast swaths of information out. (Road & Track)

• Inside Man: How Chinese spies used lies, love and betrayal to target the Federal Reserve: The’ descent from senior Fed official to espionage suspect appears to have been driven by his desire for female companionship. This desire was exploited by a Chinese government agent, who became increasingly entwined in Rogers’ professional and personal life. Rogers’ indiscretion was later exploited by online blackmail scammers, ultimately leading to his downfall. Eamon Javers reconstructs the espionage case against former Fed economist John Harold Rogers. (CNBC)

​• The Volunteer Internet Sleuths Hunting Down Rogue AI Agents: After OpenAI disclosed how its agents had broken loose, independent researchers like Selena Zhang started digging for themselves. Gerrit De Vynck on what they’re finding. (Washington Post)

• Insurance doesn’t protect US adults from medical debt, Commonwealth Fund finds: One-third of privately insured adults have unpaid debt to a healthcare provider, illustrating how medical debt isn’t limited to uninsured people or those facing major medical emergencies. (Healthcare Dive)

• She’s 28, Loves God and Her Family, and Might Be the Reason You Can’t Have Kids: No IVF. No surrogacy. No polygenic tests. Emma Waters is leading a national fight against fertility tech—with her hot husband’s permission, of course. (Wired) but see The Babies Left Behind in America: ​Caitlin Dickerson on the family-separation fallout of ICE enforcement, starting with Estela Garcia and 2-year-old Eber and the morning routine they share. (The Atlantic)

• Ospreys are disappearing along the East Coast. Scientists think they know why. At the center of a widening crisis for one of the nation’s great wildlife comebacks is a fish most Americans would hardly recognize. Mark Robichaux on Bryan Watts, the William & Mary biologist who watched the Chesapeake become home to the world’s largest breeding population of ospreys after DDT, and is now watching it unravel. (Washington Post)

• The CIA Killed Him. The Navy Blamed My Friend.: Seth Hettena on former Navy SEAL Dan Cerrillo, who went to his grave insisting he took the fall for a prisoner’s death in Iraq that the CIA was responsible for. (Seth Hettena)

​• The Unitary Executive Theory in All of Its Historical Perversity: Jack Rakove, the Stanford constitutional historian, on the misinformed idea underlying much of John Roberts’s Supreme Court. (Washington Monthly) see also Why Do So Many People Think Trump Is Good? ​David Brooks takes the question seriously rather than rhetorically. (From July 2025.) The work of the moral philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre helps illuminate some central questions of our time. (The Atlantic)

• The Four TV Shows That Heralded America’s Fall: “The Sopranos,” “The Wire,” “Mad Men” and “Breaking Bad,” besides being among the best shows the medium has ever produced, together served as a televisual Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Two hundred years from now, when people look to understand life in the United States in 2026, they’d be well advised to bypass whatever happens to be playing currently on TV. (NY Times)

Video of the day: China’s “Revolutionary” Concrete Is Already Cracking — Experts Call It a Scam

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Omar Aguilar, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Schwab Asset Management, which runs more than $1 trillion across over 100 ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed account strategies. He has held both the CEO and CIO titles since 2022

 

The Senate map is up for grabs

Source: Washington Post

 

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~~~

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MiB: Omar Aguilar, CEO and CIO of Schwab Asset Management



 

 

This week, I speak with Omar Aguilar, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Schwab Asset Management. We discuss his time at Financial Engines, where he worked under Nobel laureate William Sharpe before joining Schwab Asset Management in 2011.

We also discuss how his doctorate in decision sciences helps him build trust with clients and push them toward their goals; how he built Schwab Asset Management to over a trillion dollars, and how he is using his background to help navigate his clients through the current state of the markets.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Maria Vassalou, Head of the Pictet Research Institute, part of Pictet management, running over a trillion dollars in client assets. The Geneva-based, group-wide research capability. The Institute has its own staff of PhD-level researchers and collaborates with outside academics and think tanks; its mandate is deliberately long-term and strategic rather than tactical, covering strategic asset allocation, portfolio construction, risk premia, capital market structures, global economic and investment trends, and sustainability.

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• I Went Shopping. When Did I Become an Unpaid Employee? This North American tipping culture really annoys me. How businesses fired the staff, handed me the scanner and still expected a tip. Hans Casteels: the customer once supplied the money and the business supplied the labor. Now we scan, bag, check out and troubleshoot for free… (The Oncology Underground)

• Who’s Who at Jane Street: A guide to the management committee, decision-makers, founders, and notable alumni at the secretive trading house. The elite and elusive executives behind Wall Street’s biggest trading house love creating and cracking puzzles. But even as Jane Street breaks industry records, overtaking JPMorgan Chase & Co. last year for the top spot, the question of who wields power there remains one of its enduring enigmas. ​Jane Street insists it’s flat, collaborative and hierarchy-free. Max Abelson and Katherine Doherty name the people who actually run the place. (Bloomberg)

• Backsliding On the paradox of willpower: Some people spend their whole lives fighting other people, or institutions, or fate. Then there are those of us whose greatest battles are waged against ourselves. Meghan O’Gieblyn on willpower, habit and the runner she passes each day on the bike path who can barely run at all. (Harper’s)

• China’s bigger, better batteries: It’s the world’s fastest-growing power technology — and Beijing is dominant. Simon Mundy goes inside a production line pasting electrode slurry onto copper five microns thick, overseen by robots and AI inspection, to show how far ahead China’s battery industry has pulled. (Financial Times)

• A Brief History of the Bloomberg Terminal: It gave Wall Street traders and analysts an unprecedented window on global markets/ Technology & Society. (IEEE Spectrum)

• When Culture Becomes “Content” Can art still illuminate reality in an age of monetized attention, generative AI, and culture produced at limitless scale? Paul Chan makes the case. (The MIT Press Reader)

• Penchants of the polymaths: The fathers of Islamic science hold lessons for students: breadth over specialisation, and never let constraints get in the way. On al-Biruni, Alhazen, Avicenna and al-Khwarizmi, four Islamic polymaths whose circumstances could not have been more different, and the case that breadth beats specialization. (Aeon)

• Why ‘What’s Opera, Doc?’ Looks Like That: Some unique features of this project were its complicated score, recorded ahead of time, and its movements studied from ballet stars Tatiana Riabouchinska and David Lichine. Plus, Jones drew “almost 500” pose sketches (“as well as a further 1,500 unused roughs”) to guide his animators, whereas most films got 300. Maurice Noble’s design for the 1957 Chuck Jones cartoon, nearly 70 years on. (Animation Obsessive)

​• Coltrane’s Shadow: Mark Stryker on the Tiberi tapes, a Philadelphia tenor player obsessed with Coltrane at the moment Coltrane left Miles Davis and launched his own band in 1960. The legendary ‘Tiberi Tapes’ reveal new sides of the master, even to his biggest fans (Tablet)

• Mark Gastineau doesn’t need your attention — or a gold jacket — anymore: “I’d have to believe that Mark singlehandedly made the sack a glamorous play and made the NFL start keeping the sack as a meaningful statistic,” Jets coach Joe Walton once said. “He brought attention to it like no one before.” The former Jets sack leader in Lebanon, Pennsylvania, with 145 arborvitae and not one branch out of place. (The Athletic)

Video of the day: Why Long Island Is Sitting On The Most Valuable Land In Human History

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Omar Aguilar, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Schwab Asset Management, which runs more than $1 trillion across over 100 ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed account strategies. He has held both the CEO and CIO titles since 2022

 

See How the U.S. Is Attacking China’s Control of Critical Minerals

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

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~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning reads:

• Has AI impacted the labor market yet? Evaluating the state of the evidence: Alex Imas and Jacob Schaal review the impact of AI on the labor market with a focus on early-career workers. The more important lagging indicators, unemployment and layoffs, have hardly shown any effect of AI in the labor market so far: the impact of AI on the overall labor market has been consistently muted. At the same time, there is some evidence of impact on entry-level hiring. (Ghosts of Electricity)

​• Why I Outsource My Biggest Decisions to a Chatbot, and None of the Small Ones: Lauren Leek’s chatbot told her to quit her jobs, travel Australia and leave London. She did all three, and explains why she lets AI weigh in on big choices but not small ones. It chose my job, my two months in Australia and my city, but I never let it pick my lunch. It took me six experiments and a few thousand simulated versions of my life to figure out why. (Lauren’s Data Substack) but see I Tried to Outsource My Chores to a Robot. It Was a Total Fiasco. Meta’s Muse app is supposed to do all of your internet tasks. Big Tech is already resisting. (Slate)

​• Muni Managers Tout Equity-Like Returns After Historic Selloff: Aashna Shah: after the beating in municipal bonds, managers say yields are now high enough to rival what stocks typically deliver. (Bloomberg)

• A tale of Elves and Orcs Elf-land tends to get richer with time. But most of the recent productivity gains have been intangible, hard to monetise, top of the Maslow Hierarchy style things. Their working time has become more leisurely, as they spend more of it clicking “go ahead” to a computer, idly sending one another memes, watching videos of golden retrievers. You only need to sneeze in Elf-land and you get half a day off. They take their productivity in going home earlier, bidding up the price of fancy artwork, increasing the size of cinema seats, paying their footballers ever higher amounts, eating more cake AND diet pills. In Orc-land the productivity goes towards adding ever more barbs onto their arrows, and building horrible catapults that they load up with rocks and dead cows. And imprisoning one another. (Giles Wilkes)

​• Disney World Solved a Problem That Could Save America Billions Every Year: Every time a contractor digs, they risk hitting the tangle of cables, pipes and gas lines under American streets. Sara Herschander on the Magic Kingdom’s utility tunnels as the fix. (Vox)

• What Does Growing NIMBY-ism Mean for Data Center Investing? Consultants say the trend is strong, but they are ‘advocating for caution and a diversified approach.’ (Chief Investment Officer) but see A.I. Is Going Rogue. Who Should Be Held Responsible?: After a string of escalating attacks since July involving models from the major labs, an unlikely coalition wants AI companies held legally liable when their systems go off the rails for their runaway technology. But legal scholars say applying existing law could be messy. . David McCabe reports.  (New York Times)

​• She’s Spent Two Decades Talking to Parents Who Don’t Vaccinate Their Children. Here’s What She’s Learned: Nicholas Florko on what twenty years of conversations with vaccine-skeptical parents reveal about trust in science. A sociologist on why some families skip immunizations, and why ‘misinformation’ isn’t really to blame (Stat)

• The New Forever War Why America and Iran Fight On Without Victory.  (Foreign Affairs)

• Gravity Seems Holographic. What Does That Mean for Reality? The biggest breakthrough in modern theoretical physics is the discovery that gravity can collapse the dimensions of space. Physicists don’t yet understand the implications. (Quanta Magazine)

• The New York Yankees’ Old-School Plan to Conquer October: In an age of short stints on the mound, the franchise hopes that trusting its starters to go long can lead them to a first championship since 2009. (Wall Street Journal)

Video of the day: Ben Affleck on AI and Hollywood Economics

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Omar Aguilar, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Schwab Asset Management, which runs more than $1 trillion across over 100 ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed account strategies. He has held both the CEO and CIO titles since 2022

 

Your Geopolitical Risk Radar | Oct–Dec 2026

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

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10 Thursday AM Reads

Welcome to October! Kick off the month right with my morning reads:

• A double-edged code – How AI is reshaping the global wealth landscape: Global financial assets expanded to a record $260 trillion in 2025, expanding +8.6% from the previous year, despite a challenging geopolitical and economic backdrop. Global wealth creation ran on autopilot, driven by markets, which accounted for 80% of additional wealth, while fresh savings fell by -5.4% to EUR4.1trn. (the record looks less impressive after inflation)  ​(Allianz)

• Get ready for yet another cost when buying a home: Junk fees: These fees come with different names and explanations, such as document storage fees and administrative fees. And while they have been around for decades, they are spreading, including now often being charged to both home buyers and sellers. Both are collectively paying nearly $2 billion in these fees a year, according to new research from the think tank Consumer Policy Center, which called that estimate conservative,  (NPR) see also Most Home Buyers and Sellers Are Routinely Charged “Junk” Fees That Sometimes Exceed $1,000: The Most Outspoken Critics of These Fees Are Real Estate Agents Who Think The Fees Are Unethical and Can’t Justify Them to Clients. A new Consumer Policy Center report catalogs the add-on charges hitting both sides of a home sale. (Consumer Policy Center)

​• US Long-Term Borrowing Costs Touch Highest Level Since 2004: Thirty-year Treasury yields hit a two-decade high as the rout deepened, fed by an oil-price jump, rising inflation expectations and another weak buyback operation. (Financial Times)

​• Scott Galloway: Selling After Trump’s 2016 Win Cost Me 40% of My Stock Gains: Galloway dispenses with vague regret: he handed roughly a third of his gains to New York capital-gains taxes, then bought back in six months later at higher prices. Market timing, fully itemized. (BigGo Finance)

​• The Gap Between the Rich and the Very, Very Rich Is Getting Wider: The stock-market boom has added trillions to the top 0.1%, who are pulling away not just from average Americans but from the merely rich. (Wall Street Journal)

• Potato by air: The day the dads in my neighborhood discovered drone delivery: The wild thing — aside from the fact that you can just order a drone delivery to someone else’s yard — is that each potato delivery cost 82 cents. Total. Each order came from the Walmart Supercenter a few miles away. Wing is absolutely losing money on this. There’s no minimum order, there’s no delivery fee, and the prices are the same as in-store. Wing’s not even collecting sales tax. Welcome back, millennial lifestyle subsidy! Wing’s delivery drone weighs under 15 pounds, has 16 propellers, tops 60 mph and is FAA-approved to fly beyond line of sight. As engineering it impresses; as a way to get groceries, The Verge is less sure. (The Verge free)

​• Mosquitoes Are a Choice:The technology to eradicate mosquito-borne disease already exists. We just have to be brave enough to use it. Malaria and yellow fever were eliminated in the US in the 20th century. Saloni Dattani on why mosquito-borne disease is coming back, and why it doesn’t have to. (Works in Progress)

• Why are AI agents lying, cheating and coordinating? Yoshua Bengio on the recent run of incidents in which AI agents misbehaved in serious ways, and what those incidents say about where the technology is heading. (Yoshua Bengio) see also Microsoft exec called AI scraping the “largest theft of labor in human history” Ashley Belanger on internal Microsoft and OpenAI emails revealing fear of an AI “doom loop” killing the news organizations the models feed on. Microsoft, OpenAI emails reveal fear of AI “doom loop” killing news orgs. (Ars Technica)

• Moses Itauma Is the Future of Boxing: The Highsnobiety fall cover story on the heavyweight, his Nike handler, and his new hobby of practicing French. (Highsnobiety)

• The Wizard of Rock Would Like a Word: “The biggest artists in the world are female,” Todd Rundgren observes, “and that’s because of video games.” Devon Ivie on Todd Rundgren, whose Midas touch turns everything he works on into something else. “All I have to do is keep the IRS at bay.”  (Vulture)

Video of the day: Seinfeld’s Most Brilliant Unscripted Moments

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Omar Aguilar, President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of Schwab Asset Management, which runs more than $1 trillion across over 100 ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed account strategies. He has held both the CEO and CIO titles since 2022

 

Has AI impacted the labor market yet?

Source: Ghosts of Electricity

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At the Money: The Data Behind America’s Wealthy



 

 

At the Money: The Data Behind America’s Wealthy with Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick (September 30, 2026)

In this episode of ‘At the Money,’ I speak with Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick about the data behind America’s wealthiest people. About this week’s guests: Owen Zidar is professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton, and Eric Zwick is professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Their new book is “The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There.”

Full transcript below. Part 1 is here.

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A dozen data points from the book:

1. The 1-to-1,000 Ratio (Public CEOs vs. Private Owners) For every single CEO of a large, publicly traded company in America, there are more than 1,000 private business owners with at least $25 million in net worth.

2. Main Street Wealth Swamps the Forbes 400: The Forbes 400 list receives 50% of all news coverage on wealth, its members hold only about 3% of total US household wealth. “Main Street Millionaires” hold more than 13 times the wealth of the Forbes 400—accounting for roughly 40% of all household wealth in the United States.

3. Nearly 5 Million Households Have Over $5 Million; they are the top 4%
2 million decamillionaires ($10M+) and
65,000 centimillionaires ($100M+).

4. Wealth Drives Business Ownership Rates Equity in a business is dominant vehicle for extreme wealth.

5. Half of Americans worth $5 million own a private business; at $10 million, that figure climbs to three-quarters; and above $100 million, virtually everyone owns a private business.

6. Private Owners Out-Earn Public C-Suite Executives 15-to-1 2022, America’s 9,000 top public company C-suite executives earned a collective $38 billion. By contrast, the top 1% of private business owners (a group 10 times as large) earned $570 billion—private owners collectively earned 15X times as much. Individually, average private owner in the top 1% earned 1.5 times as much as the average public CEO.

6B. 70 Cents of Every Pass-Through Dollar Goes to the Top 1% Tax Reform Act of 1986: 95% of all U.S. businesses reorged into pass-through structures (S-corps, LLCs, partnerships) to avoid double taxation.

7. Today, 70 cents of every $1 in pass-through business profits flows directly to households in the top 1% of income.

8. $200 Billion Transferred Tax-Free Every Year $30 million per married couple 2025 and sophisticated estate-planning tools, only 0.1% of all U.S. estates pay any federal estate tax.  Americans pass on $200B annually tax-free.

9. The $100 Million Age (20 to 60): Accumulating top-tier wealth takes long horizons of reinvestment.

10. To reach the top 0.1% in wealth for your age group, a person needs:
in their 20s $9.6 million
in their 40s, $41.8 million;
in their 60s, $112.4 million—almost 6 times as much as someone in their 30s.

11. The $300 Billion Noncompete Penalty Over 20% of American workers are subject to noncompete agreements, which restrict employees from switching to local competitors or starting their own firms. Banning noncompete agreements nationwide would boost comp by $300B annually.

12. Overrepresentation of Wealth in Congress: Decamillionaires are 10X + as likely to sit in Congress as general population; centimillionaires are 62X as likely. Between 25% and 50% of federal lawmakers are private business owners or practice-owning professionals, giving biz interests significant sway over tax and regulatory policy

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Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

AT THE MONEY: The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America
Barry Ritholtz with Owen Zidar (Princeton) and Eric Zwick (University of Chicago)

Bloomberg Audio · Part Two

BARRY RITHOLTZ: America is a rich nation. But I want to get granular as to exactly how rich, who is rich, and how they got that way. The data is astounding. To help us unpack all of this and what it might mean for your personal prosperity, let’s bring in Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick. They’re professors at Princeton and the University of Chicago, respectively, and they are the authors of a fascinating new book, The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There.

And if you’re listening to this, be sure and check out part one, where we discuss a lot of the findings in the book. Today I really want to talk about the data, which really is very mind-blowing. Let’s start out with the thousand-to-one ratio, private owners versus public CEOs. For every wealthy CEO, there are more than a thousand private business owners worth at least $25 million in net worth. That blew my mind. Tell me a little bit about that.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK: Yeah, so it’s a great statistic. It started out when we were thinking about the pass-through income and the growth of pass-throughs. Let’s add up all the income for top 1% pass-through business owners. And what’s a good reference for that, to make the point that this is a huge, surprisingly huge group? Well, let’s look at CEOs in the executive comp data set, which is roughly the S&P 1500, and it takes the CEOs, the CFOs, and adds up their salary plus the market values of their options.

And you say, okay, add that up. And it turns out they’re just swamped in size by the pass-through income flows for the pass-through business owners, because there are just way more of them, and they’re all across the industry, all across the country. You know, we’re talking about 1,500 CEOs plus another thousand CFOs or top execs, and we’re talking about over a million of these top 1 to 0.5% business owners.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: A million and a half people worth $25 million or more who are not running public companies. It’s amazing. Let’s talk about something even more finite: the Forbes 400. You guys explain how much Main Street swamps the Forbes 400. The Forbes 400 list receives 50% of all news coverage on wealth; its members hold only 3% of total US household wealth.

Meanwhile, Main Street millionaires are worth 13 times more than the total combined wealth of the Forbes 400, accounting for 40% of all household wealth. That data is just mind-blowing, especially how lopsided the media coverage is on the billionaires in the Forbes 400.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK:  To us, that’s one of the main points of the book. When you think about, you know, how to get rich or the influence of the rich in America, there’s just such a monopoly on attention on a very small handful of people, and we want to broaden the aperture to say, look, there’s a lot of money in America. It’s a very rich place with a lot of opportunity, and it’s not just the Forbes 400. We need to broaden it when we’re thinking about opportunity, tax policy, and, you know, just a huge range of issues that people care about. And we really think the narrative needs to be reset.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: So I want to really get granular with the data and just reveal how far off the narrative is. 5 million households have over $5 million. That’s the top 4%. And if you’ve followed the Fidelity 401(k) millionaire data, that really shouldn’t be a terrible surprise.

But then there are 2 million Americans worth $10 million or more. And then the number that I think could be the most shocking number in the entire book: if you ask people how many people are worth a hundred million or more in America, I don’t know, they’d say a few hundred, a few thousand. 65,000 Americans are centimillionaires, worth more than a hundred million dollars. I think that was the most shocking number in the entire book.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK: It’s a huge group of people. So the 400 is 400 people. If you add all the people in their families, their kids, maybe it’s 1,500 people or 2,000 people — not 65,000. Right? So we’re talking about 30 to, you know, 50 times the number of people here.

That’s why not only are there a lot of $3 or $4 million houses, but there are a lot of $10, $20 million houses. That’s why in Aspen the average house price is so high. It’s not just some tech people from Silicon Valley buying those houses. It’s car dealers and people running manufacturing businesses making inputs into production for construction and so on.

And they’ve accumulated really screw-you money, and it’s amazing.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Yeah, I always say if you want to feel really bad about yourself, go to Zillow, set it to sold houses, and look at a wealthy part of America, out in the Hamptons. It’s genuinely shocking how many $30, $40, $50 million houses — hundreds — transact every summer. It blows my mind. Here’s another data point that I’m kind of starting to intuit, having plowed through the book: half of Americans worth $5 million or more own a private business.

That really seems to be the data point that is the core theme here: if you want to accumulate that sort of wealth, or you want to understand where that wealth is in America, you have to look at business owners.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK:  That’s absolutely right. One of the things that really jumped out to us when we were looking at pass-through businesses is that 70 cents of every dollar of income of these entities went to the top 1%. So this is really much more concentrated than public equity ownership and other forms of wealth, and it’s just very prevalent as you go further and further up into the wealth distribution.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: And again, more confirmation bias for me. I’m fond of saying the only reason any family should ever pay estate tax is if, on the way to your attorney to sign the documents, you’re hit by a bus. And you guys confirm that, because $200 billion transfers tax-free every year. Only 0.1% of all US estates pay any estate tax. That’s down — I did an analysis on that 15 years ago, and I want to say it was 0.4%, so it’s even less today.

Tell us a little bit about hundreds of billions of dollars transferring tax-free every year.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK: And it’s quite striking. I mean, one of the reasons why I think it’s fallen is that the threshold has moved from $1.2 million in the early 2000s up to $30 million for married couples, and so we’ve really decimated it. There’s also a huge range of avoidance schemes. I think Gary Cohn, who was the NEC director in the first Trump administration, said only morons pay the estate tax.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: It’s true. So it’s really amazing. Go on.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK: Yeah, so I think, you know, this is one area where, if you look at what happened to the estate tax, a lot of it was basically sold on, “Oh, we need to help the little guy.” And there were some really wealthy business owners who were kind of using that to decimate it. And given how much wealth is transferring with the great wealth transfer, I think it’s high time to revisit the estate and inheritance tax regime, because it’s really amazing how little we collect in estate taxes.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: I want to talk about something that’s sort of contra to the main theme. You discuss some issues that can address some of that K shape we talked about, some of the inequalities that are there. I knew that there was a labor penalty for all these non-competes that are out there. I had no idea it was $300 billion annually.

Some states allow it; some states, like California, do not. If we were to get rid of all these non-competes — and I’m not talking about where there are very specific trade secrets, just run-of-the-mill non-competes for people who are just doing their daily jobs and are not senior and have no access to that — $300 billion a year. We’d go a long way to closing that K a little bit. Tell us about why we should get rid of all these non-competes.

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK:  So we try and place, you know, these Everywhere Millionaires and the businesses they run in this broader conversation about what’s going on with the labor share — what’s going on with the share of overall economic activity that’s going to workers versus owners — and suggest that some of the same factors that I think have gotten a lot more attention, which is, you know, workers having fewer options in terms of where to go if they’re not being treated well at a given employer… That’s, I think, a story that’s been told for large public companies maybe, but not so much for these smaller companies. And it turns out that non-competes are really broad and have expanded.

You see a Jimmy John’s or a Jersey Mike’s applying non-competes to the sandwich artists, and, you know, there is a lot of artistry in making a hoagie, and I have a taste for one as lunch approaches, but you shouldn’t be restricted from leaving one Jimmy John’s to go across the street to make sandwiches for somebody else. And if you scale that up, you know, the ability to walk out the door as a worker is a lot of power to get better wages as the company’s doing well. And these things have really proliferated in a way that seems kind of unhelpful for the conversation on inequality, and unnecessary, I think, when we think about, you know, protecting the secret to making that perfect sandwich.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Last question, which I guess indirectly relates to that. When you guys looked at wealth to see how overrepresented wealthy congressmen are versus the general public, the numbers are kind of shocking. So the decamillionaires, people worth $10 million, are 10x as likely — 10 times as likely — to sit in Congress as they’re found in the general population. But where this is really egregious is with the group of people worth a hundred million or more, the centimillionaires: you’re 62 times more likely to sit in Congress than you are to be found in the general population.

Tell us how that came about, and what does that mean for policy and income and wealth inequality?

OWEN ZIDAR & ERIC ZWICK:  Yeah, it’s really quite striking. If you go to the grocery store, one out of every 33 people you meet is a private business owner. If you go to Congress, it’s one out of four. And I think some of that is because of the role of wealth and how hard it is to raise money.

And so if you think about who is the senator, or who’s playing golf with the senator, you know, it’s a lot of these folks. And the consequences are really quite striking in terms of thinking about who represents us when you’re making decisions about the deficit or debt, and, you know, some of these large tax bills that come through. I think that’s one part of the story for why we’ve seen such growth in their wealth: there are a lot of small loopholes that have kind of avalanched over time in recent decades, as a consequence of being so well represented, both in terms of people and in terms of their interests.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: To wrap up: if you are interested in either understanding wealth in America or becoming wealthy in America, The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There by Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick is the book for you. I found it fascinating, and I think you will also. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At The Money.

 

 

The post At the Money: The Data Behind America’s Wealthy appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Wednesday AM Reads

My mid-week morning reads:

• Anthropic’s IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision, surging costs. Anthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than ​industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters. But the cost to get there will be staggering. Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion ‌in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years, according to the prospectus. (Reuters)

• A Brutal Bond Market: This cycle is the first time in the history of the index there have been negative 5 year returns. (Wealth of Common Sense) see also The Aberrational Century: Comparing the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year fixed mortgage since the dotcom implosion against the 25 years before it. The recent era looks less like normal and more like the exception. Since 2001, the 10-Year yielded ~3.25%; mortgages have averaged ~5.1%. The prior 25-year run — from 1976 to 2000 — saw the 10-Year yielding ~8.5%; mortgages averaged ~10.2%. That’s literally double the ultra-low rate levels we have enjoyed in the first quarter of the 21st century. (The Big Picture)

• Decamillionaires are the new millionaires: Three Types of Decamillionares I Worked With As a Private Banker. Elizabeth George, CFP, on why a million bucks is no longer rich, and the three kinds of eight-figure clients she saw up close. (Use Your Wealth)

• Elon Musk’s Paper Billions Are Vanishing: Paul Mueller: Musk has created and lost more paper wealth than anyone in history, most of the recent loss in about four weeks. The swings say a lot about risk and concentrated fortunes. The global trillionaire count returned to zero not long after SpaceX’s IPO. His net worth dropped by an amount nearly equal to the combined fortunes of Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg. (Daily Economy)

• The Secret Monopoly Making Everything More Expensive: A proposed settlement would give Visa and Mastercard’s duopoly a free pass.  (Economic Populist)

• Corporate America embraces cheaper ‘open’ AI models: US businesses far beyond Silicon Valley are adopting Chinese alternatives to OpenAI and Anthropic’s systems. ​Ryan McMorrow reports that spiralling IT expenses are pushing executives away from premium closed models toward lower-cost open alternatives. (Financial Times)

• Why New York City Is a Paradise for Creators: The streets of New York are a backdrop for countless TikTok and Instagram videos. John Koblin on how the streets of New York became the backdrop for countless TikTok and Instagram videos. (New York Times)

​• Space Lasers Are About to Get Their First Real Test Generating Energy: Google, SpaceX and a host of startups plan to put data centers in orbit, which will require lots of power. Brian Kahn on Star Catcher, the Jacksonville startup trying to beam it to them. If successful, would be the first time energy has been beamed between two separate spacecraft. (Wired)

​• How President Trump Broke the Kennedy Center: Julia Jacobs on the internal emails documenting political capture — including a plan officials once pursued to unload much of the art collection, while fallen ceiling plaster sat on the Grand Foyer carpet for two weeks. (New York Times)

• The Four TV Shows That Heralded America’s Fall: “The Sopranos,” “The Wire,” “Mad Men” and “Breaking Bad,” besides being among the best shows the medium has ever produced, together served as a televisual Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. (New York Times)

Video of the day: How Japan took over America denim

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview with Adam Frank, Head of Wealth Planning and Advice at JPM, responsible for $1.3 trillion in client assets. Previously, he was head of Wealth Management for JP Morgan Securities. JPM’s combined total asset — global, institutional, private bank, wealth, and retail — are over $7.7 trillion.

 

See How the U.S. Is Attacking China’s Control of Critical Minerals A Trump administration initiative to create a China-free supply chain for military and industrial inputs is starting to work

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

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The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Aberrational Century

 

It’s the end of September, and that means I am busy working on the Q4 quarterly call (out early October). I decided to surface to share two tables I find absolutely fascinating.

The first table (above) compares the 10-year bonds and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage across two distinct time periods: The present era, back to the dotcom implosion, versus the 25-year period before it. The numbers are telling:

Since 2001, the 10-Year yielded ~3.25%; mortgages have averaged ~5.1%.

The prior 25-year run — from 1976 to 2000 — saw the 10-Year yielding ~8.5%; mortgages averaged ~10.2%. That’s literally double the ultra-low rate levels we have enjoyed in the first quarter of the 21st century.1

The past 25 years have been marked by very low average 10-year yields and very affordable 30-year fixed mortgage rates. This is especially true compared with the prior 25-year period.

I have legitimate concerns about other factors driving rates higher, and I’ll address them in the coming weeks. If you want an early preview, consider these:

10 Drivers of Higher Interest Rates
1. Covid Fiscal Stimulus
2. AI-Accelerated GDP Growth
3. Inflation: Oil and the Iran war premium
4. Inflation: Tariff Trade policy
5. Rest of the world sours on US Treasuries
6. Duration: Weak Demand for long-dated paper
7. Deficits
8. Corporate Supply (competing with Treasury)
9. Japan leads Global rise in yield
10. Rate Normalization, Post QE/ZIRP

Today’s tables are all about #10 above.

There’s been a lot of angst over changes in the bond market for numerous reasons, but I can’t help but wonder how much of that concern is simply that we’ve become so terribly spoiled by very cheap credit and the most affordable mortgages in our lifetimes.

Look at the 10-Year Yield by decade below. Right after World War 2, the 19-year was at ~3.25%. That rose each decade and peaked in the 1980s at 10.6%. Now we’re back to an average for the 2020s of 3.1%. But that’s likely behind us, as yields have climbed back over 5%—today, the 10-year Treasury is at 5.3%.

Perhaps we should have appreciated how good we had it when money was free…

~~~

More next week…

 

 

Previously:
What’s Upsetting the Bond Market? (August 25, 2026)

T-Bills and Chill? Try Munis & Chill Instead (September 10, 2026)

Corporate vs Treasury Debt Duration (September 8, 2026)

Managing Stocks & Bonds During a Low Yield Era (November 18, 2020)

 

__________

1. And it only took a major terrorist attack, a financial crisis, and a pandemic to achieve it!

 

 

 

 

Author’s note: This was written by me, not AI. I used Claude for research and to help generate the two tables above. 

The post The Aberrational Century appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Tuesday AM Reads

My Two-for-Tuesday morning reads:

• Innovation Is Driving a New Bull Market in Biotech. Biotechnology stocks are soaring this year as medical advances and merger activity rekindle investor interest. More gains lie ahead, our healthcare panel says. (Barron’s)

• Is an Agentic Bank Run Coming? Muse and similar agentic AI assistants could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of the 0.1% national average on checking accounts. (Apollo) see also It’s cute. It’s cuddly. And it wants your data. Meta is touting its new personal AI agent, Muse, as a product “built for everyone” — including those who lack experience with technology. ​Angela Yang on the data behind the charm offensive. (NBC News)

​• The Gospel of High Yields: Inside Tim Tebow’s Favorite Wealth Seminar: Life Surge pairs Christian celebs with hard-sell pitches. Some attendees ended up deep in debt. Kiera Butler spends a day at an event in suburban Atlanta, where thousands paid to hear a former NFL quarterback keynote a prosperity-and-investing seminar. Produced with Pablo Torre Finds Out. (MoJo)

• Capital Cycle IQ & the Forensic Files of the Big 5 Hyperscalers: Michael Burry on where we are in the capital cycle, which he argues explains most of the biggest moves in asset prices over the past three decades, applied to the hyperscalers’ balance sheets. The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part V, with CU Universe Rankings, the All Map (Cassandra Unchained)

• Ban Chinese cars? They’re already here. More competition would be better for American drivers. The Post’s Editorial Board points out that one Chinese-owned company has already cleared the bar to sell in the U.S.: Volvo. A ban would mostly hurt American buyers. (Washington Post)

​• The Major Social Media Platforms Are All Rejecting Paid Ads for Alex Gibney’s ‘Musk’: YouTube, TikTok and Meta have all turned down trailer ads for Gibney’s Elon Musk documentary. The Oct. 9 doc has been rejected, citing “political” content. X won’t even take Bleecker Street’s calls. The distributor is appealing. Censorship, American style…  (Hollywood Reporter)

• Why No One Wants to Date Tech Bros: Elana Klein on the 23-year-old Palantir engineer explaining his $250,000 salary at a Manhattan bar, and not getting the sympathy he expected. Once seen as nerdy but harmless innovators, men in tech are now widely regarded as red-pilled Elon Musk wannabes. It’s made getting laid a whole lot harder. (Wired)

​• Banished to Alien Lands: Trump’s Secret Deportation Deals: Louisa Loveluck on the agreements that landed an Iranian woman in the middle of Africa. After a plane journey in shackles, an Iranian woman found herself in the middle of Africa in a country she did not know existed. She is one of thousands deported from the US on the back of shadowy deals made with dozens of countries. An in-depth investigation reveals the ‘show of force’ costing American taxpayers millions (The Guardian) see also The Northern Passage: ICE is targeting Haitians with new intensity. Now some are fleeing the United States for Canada. Nick Miroff on Jeanne, whose legal status was terminated by text message mid-shift at a Charlotte restaurant — and the road north that followed. (The Atlantic)

• Talk Less, Listen More and Six Other Top Tips on Giving Good Advice: Are you someone who thinks they have all the answers? Is your experience relevant here? Amelia Abraham, starting with the Guardian’s Annalisa Barbieri: often the person asking for advice just wants to talk about how they feel. Experts on the questions to ask yourself before giving advice (The Guardian)

• The Interview Sylvester Stallone Hid His Struggles for Decades. Now He’s Coming Clean. Now 80, and with a new memoir, titled “The Steps” (a nod to the Philadelphia Museum of Art stairs he famously scaled in “Rocky”), Stallone is ready to examine his own life, his work and the impact it has had on our culture. As he told me in our candid and at times shocking conversations, he can “make a castle out of regrets” for what his drive and fame did to his mind and his body. He also explained how his very difficult childhood, with abusive and neglectful parents, motivated the tough-guy image he showed the world. ​Lulu Garcia-Navarro’s long interview with the 80-year-old on his memoir The Steps, a difficult childhood, and the toll fame took on his mind and body. (New York Times)

Video of the day: A Brief History of the Beatles Song Catalogue: Northern Songs

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview with Adam Frank, Head of Wealth Planning and Advice at JPM, responsible for $1.3 trillion in client assets. Previously, he was head of Wealth Management for JP Morgan Securities. JPM’s combined total assets, including global, institutional, private bank, wealth, and retail, are over $7.7 trillion.

 

The best-selling product of all time

Source: Asymco

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The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.