The Big Picture

Vanguard: The Costliest Mistakes Even Experienced Investors Make

 

 

I have been fortunate to get to know Joe Davis, chief economist at investing giant Vanguard, over the years. He has been on MiB a few times, and I have referenced his research many times.

I had been to the VG campus a few times before — once to interview Jack Bogle for MiB (along with all of the subsequent CEOs), and two other times to speak at Vanguard events.

I drove down to Malverne to join Joe Davis and his co-host, Rebecca Choo Quan, on their show “Better Vantage by Vanguard.”

This part one of two…

 

Better Vantage by Vanguard | The costliest mistakes even experienced investors make

Even experienced investors make costly mistakes—and often, the problem isn’t the market, it’s behavior. In this episode of Better Vantage by Vanguard, Barry Ritholtz joins Joe Davis to break down the most common forms of investor misbehavior, from overconfidence and recency bias to chasing noise. They explore why these unforced errors can derail long term outcomes and share practical frameworks to help advisors and investors stay disciplined, humble, and focused on what really drives long term success. We are a community of 50 million* who think—and feel—differently about investing. Together, we’re changing the way the world invests.

 

 

Previously:
MIB: Joe Davis, Vanguard’s Chief Economist (February 16, 2019)

Vanguard Group (full archive)

 

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10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning reads:

Tesla’s Cratering Cybertruck Sales Evoke Ford Edsel Comparisons: Both automakers expected consumers to buy hundreds of thousands of their futuristic models per year. Tesla’s pickup is missing the mark by a wider margin. (Bloomberg)

Bitcoin is a Zeppelin: It is impossible to convey to you, dear reader, how exciting the airship future was. HG Wells capitalized on his War of the Worlds fantasy novel with 1908’s The War in the Air, in which America is invaded by Zeppelins (we lose). Some considered it his masterpiece. (History Helps)

• China AI Companies Rush to Raise Funds and Close Gap With U.S. Raising capital at a frenetic pace before American export controls make the compute gap permanent. Startups plan IPOs and get private investment, but American rivals still bring in far more investor cash (Wall Street Journal)

Flock Is in Serious Trouble After Massive Backlash: At least 53 cities have ended their contracts with the company so far. (Futurism)

You’re obsessing over the wrong Peter Thiel conference: Forget Dialog. Bilderberg is where the actual masters of the universe meet. Three guesses who secretly funds it? (How to Survive the Broligarchy)

The Curse of Cow Clicker: How a Cheeky Satire Became a Video Game  Hit: Video game designer Ian Bogost meant Cow Clicker to be a satire with a short shelf life. Instead, the hit game enslaved him for more than a year. (Wired)

• This Conversation Is Being Recorded. They All Are.: AI recording apps and wearables are capturing every meeting, every call, every hallway chat. The Wall Street Journal on the workplace where nothing is ever off the record again. People in tech use AI apps to record and transcribe meetings, workplace chats and even dates—all in the name of productivity (Wall Street Journal)

• Three World Leaders. Three Incredibly Bad Decisions.: Trump, Netanyahu, and Putin — three catastrophic choices in 2026, each making the world measurably worse. (New York Times)

How to keep cool in this year’s extreme summer heat even without air conditioning: Lessons from Uttar Pradesh, India, where temperatures easily soar upward of 120 degrees — and few people have access to an air conditioner. (NPR)

These famous movies are secretly versions of ‘The Odyssey’ Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” is just the latest retelling of Homer’s poem. See the movies and books inspired by the enduring classic. (USA Today) see also Christopher Nolan’s Odyssey Is Going to Drive the Right Wing Completely Insane: The Oscar winner’s latest is a Trojan horse of a film: a rip-roaring blockbuster secretly carrying a sober meditation on civility and intolerance. And Elon Musk is going to despise it. (Vanity Fair)

Video of the day: Will Ferrell | Good Hang with Amy Poehler

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Lori Heinel, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Investment Management, the money management arm of investing giant State Street. She oversees over $5.7 trillion in assets (as of year-end 2025), which includes everything from index funds and ETFs to active strategies, multi-asset solutions, and alternatives. She was named to Forbes’ 2025 “50 Over 50” list.

 

The AI investment race: The Fondues and Don’ts of Dating

Source: Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

 

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At The Money: Investing in Wheat

 

 

At The Money: Investing in Wheat (July 22, 2026)

Do you want to own a core food staple as a geopolitical hedge, an inflation offset, or simply as a diversifier? There’s an ETF for that!

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Sal Gilbertie began trading agricultural and energy commodities in 1982 at Cargill, DLJ, Merrill Lynch, and Bear Stearns. He founded Teucrium in 2009, launching commodity-based AG products like the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) and the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT), as well as soybeans and sugar futures markets through ETFs.

For more info, see:

Personal Bio

Professional 

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

At the Money: Buying and Selling Wheat in Your Investment Accounts
With Sal Gilbertie, Founder, CEO & Chief Investment Officer, Teucrium Trading

 

“To die, before the Harvest the crop the grains fields of rippling wheat.
Wheat. All there is in life is wheat.”
“Sonia, Here’s your chance to do something kind for a dying boy but I don’t really love Boris I mean I love him but I’m not in love with him
Wheat lots of wheat fields of wheat a tremendous amount of Wheat”

-Love & Death

 

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, grain prices have exploded. Gaining exposure to a grain like wheat is usually a challenge. Futures are an entirely different animal than stocks or bonds — they have a very different risk profile, not only from stocks, but even against options. There’s a whole lot more downside with futures. The wheat ETF doubled after the war started and has come back down to pre-war levels. Is wheat a fit for your portfolio? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At the Money, we’re going to explore the question of buying and selling wheat in your investment accounts.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Sal Gilbertie. He’s founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of Teucrium Trading, best known for creating exchange-traded funds that give investors direct exposure to agricultural futures. He’s also an old-school commodity trader, going back to 1982. So what was the problem that the wheat fund — symbol WEAT — was designed to solve for investors who wanted exposure to wheat, but are a little skittish about holding futures directly?

SAL GILBERTIE: Well, thanks for having me, Barry. So futures of any kind are tough to trade, right? You’ve gotta have a margin account. They’re volatile. It requires a different expertise. And when I heard about ETFs — I didn’t even know what an ETF was when I founded this company — I found out and said, wow, that’s brilliant, ’cause I always traded commodities and futures, and I said, anybody can buy these things in their stock account. That’s amazing. And so we package these things inside of ETFs, and the wheat ETF’s been very popular. I don’t know if you know Andy Hecht, but he basically says wheat is a more political commodity than oil. It’s older — I think it’s mentioned 50 or 70-something times in the Bible. Wheat is wheat — it’s a big deal. Also, of the crops, I think a higher percentage of wheat is directly consumed by humans than, say, corn or soybeans, which also go to animals and fuel and all that. Now, as an aside, you can run wheat through an ethanol plant if it’s lousy and it’ll turn into ethanol, but that’s not a common thing. Wheat is so integral to human life, basically — bread, tortillas — it’s a big deal. You’ve gotta have wheat.

And so we thought there should be a wheat fund. We started this fund and we structured it — we think properly — so people can buy it in their stock account. They don’t need a margin account; like any other ETF, they can buy it. We worry about the futures inside of it. It’s designed to track wheat prices through wheat futures: when they go up, the fund’s designed to go up, and when the wheat futures go down, the fund’s designed to go down — less some fees and expenses and a little bit of static. But it generally works pretty well.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: So you mentioned prices. You’re not talking about the cash price of physical wheat — you’re talking about the CBOT price, the futures price. What’s the distinction between the two? How do investors see this reflected in their grocery prices?

SAL GILBERTIE: Well, there’s kind of a disconnect — not a direct disconnect — but wheat prices are gonna move up and down on a bulk level, on a wholesale level. Investors can’t buy that. I mean, you want to buy a truckload of wheat or a cargo load of wheat somewhere and ship it around? It’s impossible. So you use futures as a proxy. They have delivery points; each delivery location is gonna be a different price. But the advantage of futures — and the CME futures are the global standard, basically, for soft red winter wheat — is that all you have to do is look at that price. Every farm, every location has a different price for physical wheat; it doesn’t matter. It all gets to be a futures-equivalent price when you factor in delivery. And so futures is the standard to look at to know where wheat’s going. That’s what you’re looking at.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: You mentioned soft red winter. When I was doing some research for this conversation, I was kind of shocked at how many distinct wheat markets there are: hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red winter, white wheat, durum. What are all these different wheats?

SAL GILBERTIE: So in general, all you need to know is that the wheat everybody looks at is the soft red, and that’s used for baking — in general, just home baking, that kind of stuff. The hard wheats are used more for specialty things like pasta. But unless you’re a chef, who cares? You’re gonna buy your wheat in your grocery store, and that’s fine — generally you’re buying soft, unless you’re buying a specialty wheat for whatever you want to do. And soft wheat is the benchmark for wheat prices — global wheat prices — on the CME.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Huh. The USDA does forecast out for the rest of the year into next year. They’re forecasting hard red winter wheat at its lowest price since 1957–58. How on earth is that possible — that 75 years later, wheat prices are still the same? It just seems crazy to me.

SAL GILBERTIE: So, farming advancements — and we’ve kept up with demand. That’s what’s happened. That’s why the ags get a bad name, because people say, well, inflation-adjusted, your return is zero or negative. Well, okay, but if you’ve got that commodity, it’s very cyclical. It trades at a flatline — basically it trades at breakeven, because farmers are subsidized. And then when it doesn’t rain somewhere, or there’s a political upheaval like in Ukraine, the price explodes higher — when there’s a drought in the upper Midwest. Granted, wheat is grown in virtually every country. And wheat probably has —

BARRY RITHOLTZ: It’s the most consumed staple food crop — it’s in everything, and everybody eats it.

SAL GILBERTIE: Everything, and everybody uses it. What matters to the price of wheat is how much is available for export. And wheat, versus corn and soybeans, probably has more countries that export it in volume than the other two big ones. And so it’s important to know that a disruption in the United States wheat belt, a disruption in China or India — and I believe India is the number one grower of wheat in the world, but they don’t export it.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Oh, that’s really interesting.

SAL GILBERTIE: Well, there’s a big difference between how much wheat is grown in a certain spot and how much wheat is exported from a certain spot. What investors care about is how much is exported. And that’s why, during the Ukraine war, wheat prices exploded higher — because of the amount exported out of the Black Sea from Russia and Ukraine, which are both in the top five global wheat exporters. Russia’s number one by far. The EU is right up there as a bloc. So most of the world’s exports come out of that whole area. Australia is an enormous exporter. In fact, I believe the record-high wheat price is still intact, even after COVID and the Ukraine war — we’d have to go look it up, but it was intact for years, based on back-to-back droughts in Australia back in, I think, the early two thousands or —

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Nineties. Wow, that’s amazing. So you had mentioned futures trading and how different it is from traditional options trading — where there is a similarity: different maturities, different expiration dates. WEAT holds three distinct contracts across three different maturities, about a third each — a little more, a little less. Why go with that structure? That’s really kind of interesting, that sort of spread you’ve created.

SAL GILBERTIE: Two reasons. One is, as we’ve said, these are more strategic allocation products. So they trade flatline for quite a while at your breakeven, and then they explode higher. So investors kind of layer in a percent or two in their portfolio when they’re low, and they just sit on them — and then, when they go higher, they get out. In fact, there’s an expression: weight it into your portfolio when they’re at breakeven — W-E-I-G-H-T — then wait, W-A-I-T, and when there’s drought, get out. So it’s weight, wait, drought out. And that could take —

BARRY RITHOLTZ: A couple of years. Weight, wait, drought out. Yeah.

SAL GILBERTIE: Weight, wait, drought out. An RIA told us that — we didn’t make that up. So what happens is, when you layer these things into your portfolio, you’re kind of sitting on them for a while. If we just held spot-month futures, there’d be a lot more volatility, and what you really want is the general price appreciation when the price goes up. You’re buying this thing for the price to go up, and you’re buying it for portfolio stability — you’re gonna have more stability. Because if you own out the curve and there’s some temporary dislocation in the front month, your portfolio isn’t gonna move as much. So you’re gonna have less volatility in that holding. Yet if there’s a true supply disruption and the whole structure of the curve moves up over the course of half a year or a year, you’re gonna participate in that. And so that’s what we designed for investors.

The other practical matter is that these things have limits. Agricultural commodities have very strict limits in terms of how many contracts you can own per month, and if we just concentrated this fund in one month, we wouldn’t be able to handle all the money that comes in. Before the Ukraine war, we had about $80 million in this fund. Within weeks after the Ukraine war broke out, we had $800 million in the fund.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Wow.

SAL GILBERTIE: And so it was easy to move in, easy to move out. These are incredibly liquid instruments because of the underlying commodity, so you can write as big a ticket as you want and put it in there. Just — as with any ETF — don’t use a market order, ever. Put in your limit, and don’t trade in the first 15 minutes of the market. Let the markets open, because everything’s electronic, and if there’s some price glitch in one component, you’re not gonna get the best price. So just sit on your hands until 9:45 East Coast time every morning when you’re trading an ETF, and don’t put a market order in.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: It’s so funny you say that. I started on a trading desk, and some of the rules us newbies had to learn were: no market orders, always limit orders — although I have a few funny stories about market orders that got executed; the MCI WorldCom deal, pretty stupid — be really careful around the open, and no trading IPOs. I mean, those were the three rules, everybody.

SAL GILBERTIE: Those are good rules.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Those were pretty good rules. Yeah. One of the things I’ve always been fascinated with in commodities and futures — the thing that probably confuses laypeople the most: backwardation and contango. Explain what those two things are and how you manage around them.

SAL GILBERTIE: All right — so I didn’t think you were gonna bring that up, but that’s the reason we have three exposures. It’s complicated, but that mitigates backwardation and contango. In a nutshell — let’s keep this to 30 or 60 seconds — when I was working at Cargill, we called it the cost of carry. That’s contango. They both begin with a C; that’s how I remember it. But it’s the cost of carry. If you’re a grocer and you buy a can of peas and put it on a shelf until somebody buys it, you had a cost: you had to buy the can of peas, you’ve got insurance for your store, you’ve gotta pay all these other bills until it goes off the shelf. That’s a cost of carry.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Simple inventory — you pay for it until you sell it. You laid out the cash.

SAL GILBERTIE: Absolutely. So over time, it costs you money to keep that thing on the shelf. Actually, if grocers didn’t care about consumer sentiment and just cared about market prices, they would raise the price of that can of peas once a month. They’d say, well, heck, that cost me a penny more to hold it and pay for the heating and air conditioning — and my cost of money; I could earn interest on that money or put it to better use. So the price, as you go out the futures curve, should go higher, because you have to store corn, for instance — it costs roughly about a nickel a month to store corn. So if you buy corn at $4 a bushel, at the end of a year you’d better get $4.60 for that corn if you stored it, because it cost you a nickel a month — it cost you another 60 cents to hold that corn. If you look at a futures curve, by and large that’s priced in. So cost of carry — contango — is a normal market. Prices go up slightly as you go out, just to reflect the cost of buying and holding that commodity. Remember, commodities are real things; it’s not just paper. It doesn’t matter in gold, ’cause gold’s worth so much and you just put it in a big pile, and there’s a guy with no neck and a gun guarding the pile — it doesn’t cost much. But in terms of moving corn around and sticking it in a grain silo and holding it, that’s a big deal. You’ve gotta keep the humidity right and all that.

So backwardation is when that system breaks, and that system generally breaks when you’re afraid there’s not gonna be enough corn the next month. So you buy all your corn this month. Okay, well, now you’ve broken the supply-demand economics, because as more buyers come in, the price goes higher. So if the price nearby goes higher than the price that’s further out, that’s backwardation.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: It’s not lower left to upper right — suddenly it’s upper left to lower right. That’s what the chart looks like.

SAL GILBERTIE: Correct. And backwardation is not a natural occurrence. It’s an occurrence during a disruption of some sort, be it a supply disruption or a political disruption.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Huh — really intriguing. So of all the commodities we’ve talked about, wheat is probably the most global commodity. Not only does it go into everything from bread to pasta to whatever — it’s just such a basic food staple. How do you look at the global changes in wheat production? You mentioned Australia, obviously Russia and Ukraine, lots of parts of Europe, Argentina and South America, plus the United States and Canada. Given the global production, how do you track all the weather and all the factors driving total global production?

SAL GILBERTIE: If you’re in the business, you hire an analyst. If you’re a normal person, you look at the USDA report once a month. And if you’re everybody else, just look at the futures price — it all gets built in, because all the people doing the first two things I just said are building that into the price. So just look at the futures and you’ll see what’s out there. But yeah, really watch the weather. If it’s dry in western Canada, if it’s dry in the Dakotas or in Kansas, if it’s dry in Ukraine or Russia, if it’s dry in Australia, if it’s dry in Argentina — you’re gonna have a wheat problem.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Huh. Really, really interesting. So obviously the price volatility is driven by changes in supply and demand, and there’s a little bit of geopolitical risk premium. We talked about tariffs and export restrictions and sanctions, and obviously war. But how do we generally think about prices of wheat? What are the key drivers that are gonna affect this going forward? Is it simply weather, or is that pretty much the only thing that’s driving it?

SAL GILBERTIE: Honestly, for wheat, it’s weather and geopolitics. And again, as we saw, you see the choke points — and the Black Sea is the primary choke point. So that’s the geopolitics part. And look, understand: even during the height of the Ukraine war and the political fallout in the first year of that, you could still buy Russian wheat. Anybody who wanted to could buy Russian wheat. Sanctions don’t go on food — you don’t do that. Even during war, nobody puts sanctions on food. You can import food from your enemy; it’s perfectly legal. But you might not get a ship to go in there because of the war premium and all that. But you can buy it — nobody’s gonna put restrictions on food. So as soon as people figured out, well, wait a minute, there’s gonna be free flow, that price came back down.

Where you have an issue is when it doesn’t rain. Because again, that pile at harvest is small. You’ve only got, on average, six months of excess supply at any given time in the world of wheat. If you have a major problem — a major crop problem, be it drought or disease in a major producing area — suddenly you have five months or four months. What if that happens two years in a row? Then you have one month or two months. That’s why the price is so responsive. And that’s why, when you see these things flatlined at the low long-term price levels, that’s when you need to look at maybe an allocation to those things.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Huh. So WEAT, the ETF, is an unleveraged product, but obviously wheat futures trade with leverage and a lot of volatility. What sort of time horizon and risk tolerance should an investor that this is suitable for really be thinking about?

SAL GILBERTIE: Sure. Well, again, it’s a strategic allocation. So I think that if you do the math, every four to seven years there’s a drought. If you look at the charts, things flatline at certain prices, and with wheat, your breakeven is generally roughly a dollar a bushel more than corn — and that varies a little bit. But if you see corn down at four bucks, if you see wheat down approaching $5, you’re looking at — based on history — limited historical downside and pretty significant historical upside. It’s not that these things can’t move lower; they just tend not to stay there, because of the usage, and the farmers will just ship crops.

So I think that it’s a strategic allocation — it’s something that you move money into when prices are low. And it’s in the headlines when you run out of food, so it’s not gonna be lost in your portfolio, and the price will spike. You’ve got a 1% allocation of corn or wheat or whatever it is, and all of a sudden it’s 2%. When you look at your rebalance quarterly, you take some action.

BARRY RITHOLTZ: Huh. Really interesting. So to wrap up: investors looking to hedge against the cost of food inflation, against geopolitical turmoil, against exposure to other asset classes that are all fairly correlated, might want to consider commodity ETFs such as wheat. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

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Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

My mid-week morning reads:

Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader: Sites like Polymarket were built to price uncertainty. New data shows they might be rewarding privileged knowledge instead. (Businessweek free)

Treasury Flags Concern Over ‘Potentially Abusive’ Tax Trades: The US Treasury Department has expressed concern over a number of high-profile tax strategies touted by Wall Street that it says may be “too good to be true.” (Bloomberg free) see also ‘Black Holes for Capital Gains’: New Tax Trick Takes Off in ETFs: Investors are seeding ETFs with appreciated assets, taking advantage of an infamous loophole to wash out taxable gains. The ETF structure that lets wealthy investors eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. Bloomberg explains how it works — and why the Treasury just flagged it.(Bloomberg)

The U.S. homeownership rate may not be as high as you think: Only about half of U.S. adults live in homes they own. The official homeownership rate counts households, not people — and the distinction matters enormously for understanding who’s actually building wealth. One economist has a new way of looking at the issue. (Washington Post)

Once Bitten: Why Investors Won’t Buy Back a Stock That Burned Them: Every investor has a name or two they’ll never own again – and it’s rarely about the fundamentals. How a single bad experience — one stock crash, one market downturn — permanently distorts an investor’s behavior for decades. The scar tissue is real and measurable. (Essentia Analytics)

American AI is locked down and proprietary. It’s losing. China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning: its companies are taking the lead. The closed-source American AI model is losing ground to open-source Chinese alternatives. The irony: America’s obsession with IP protection may be the thing that costs it the AI race. (Ben Werdmuller)

The Chatbot That Foretold Why People Share Secrets With ChatGPT: A Wired excerpt from a new book on ELIZA — the 1960s chatbot that predicted, with eerie accuracy, why humans would eventually pour their hearts out to machines. In the 1960s an MIT professor named Joseph Weizenbaum created a chatbot called ELIZA. The conversations people had with it set precedents for the chatbots to come. (Wired)

• A.I. Drones Are Coming. We Are Not Ready.: Autonomous weapons are no longer theoretical. The world needs a regulatory framework before AI-powered drones make human decision-making in warfare obsolete. (New York Times) see also Armed robots are on the horizon, as Silicon Valley pitches new military tech: The defense-tech pipeline is filling fast — and the Pentagon is eager to buy. (Washington Post)

‘Whataboutism’ makes the internet exhausting. Why people think this way: “It’s normal for us to have egocentric processing, to filter the world through our own experiences,” said Micheline Maalouf, a Florida-based licensed mental health counselor and content creator with more than 1 million followers on TikTok. (CNN)

It’s no longer illegal to destroy the one thing endangered species need most to survive: The Trump administration gutted habitat protection provisions of the Endangered Species Act. What that means for hundreds of species that depend on places, not just policies. A twisted definition of one word is putting hundreds of rare animals at risk. (Vox)

• As Odd as a Clockwork Orange: The Unreliable Narrator and Primary Sources : The Memory Hole revisits Kubrick’s masterpiece through the lens of 2026 — and finds it uncomfortably prophetic about state violence, media manipulation, and the aestheticization of cruelty.   (The Memory Hole).

Video of the day: The Zombie Debts Making Wall Street Rich

Be sure to check out the latest Masters in Business with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

Venture capital is already having a record year

Source: Axios

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The Failure Gap

 

 

We are all systematically blind to how often things fail. (Thank you to Joachim Klement for bringing this to my attention)

Why else would anyone ever invest in a restaurant and/or a play? For every Hamilton, there are 100,000 plays that never get anywhere. Every successful restaurant you see is an exception, not the rule. Long hours, razor-thin margins, lots of management headaches, and ever-changing trends make it an extremely difficult business. A great restaurant may be a good business, but the industry itself is incredibly difficult. It’s a lousy business, defined by its most notable exceptions — and fast food.1

The Failure Gap goes into great detail about this. The paper’s authors reviewed over 30 “life domains”; they determined that failure occurs about 61% of the time. But ask people what the failure rate is, and they wildly underestimate it: About 41% is the average number they give.

We collectively underestimate restaurant closures, college non-completion (true rate ~64% at the 20 largest U.S. colleges), OTC painkiller inefficacy (~52% get no meaningful relief), hospital hand-hygiene lapses (~50%), and TSA screening misses. We even estimated NHL teams collectively lose only 44% of games — a logical impossibility in a league where every game produces a winner and a loser.2

This is a variant of a question we discussed here two years ago: “What do people actually know relative to what they believe they know?“ The chart nearby looks remarkably similar to the one above…

To find out, the authors scanned 2.4 million news articles, plus social media and online reviews, and found failure under-reported relative to its actual occurrence in every domain. One shocking example: glowing Advil reviews on Amazon collapsed their inefficacy estimates from 30% to 7% vs. a 52% actual rate.

In our age of social media, we see a further driver of this yet: Failure is under-shared. This somehow creates an unholy combination of survivorship bias and availability heuristic, making our collective failure estimations not just wildly wrong, but consistently so, and in the same direction.

I have been using the phrase denominator blindness, but the paper implies a new variant: “Base-rate blindness.”

~~~

Check out the full paper below…

 

 

 

Previously:
Another Reason Why Polling is So Bad (August 15, 2024)

 

Source:
The Failure Gap
Eskreis-Winkler, Woolley, Kim & Polimeni
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2025)

See also:
The failure gap
Joachim Klement
Jul 17, 2026

 

 

__________

1. I discuss this extensively in How Not to Invest. In addition to survivorship steering us to underestimate how often things fail, we further underestimate just how fragile and rare success can be.

2. Unlike World Cup soccer, the NHL produces zero ties…

 

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

My  morning train reads:

• Why Most Portfolios Are Under Diversified: QuantPedia’s data-driven case that even portfolios that look diversified aren’t — correlation spikes during stress, factor overlap, and the illusion of spreading risk. (QuantPedia)

How to Find the Bargains in the Software Stock Wreckage: AI is eating away at software’s superpower: profit-rich recurring revenue. The good news? Companies—and investors—are starting to adapt. (Barron’s) but see also Big Food Is Running Out of Moves With Shoppers and Investors: Shrinkflation exhausted. Price hikes maxed out. Volume declining. The major food companies have no good options left. Investors are rightly giving up on companies like General Mills and Kraft Heinz, which are squeezed by everything from inflation to GLP-1s. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Rise and Fall of TikTok’s Real Estate Gurus: They promised passive income and generational wealth through house-flipping. Most of their followers lost money. From viral fame to class-action lawsuits. (Curbed)

Nuclear energy could be in for a big decade: The global fleet of nuclear power plants is poised to expand quickly as climate. (Canary Media)

• The Strange Inner Life of Self-Driving Cars: What Waymo’s vehicles “see” and “think” — the hallucinations, the edge cases, the weird decisions. The AI behind the wheel is both more capable and more alien than you’d expect. (Wired)

Boomers Were Supposed to Downsize. They Are Buying Bigger Homes Instead. Wealthy, older Americans are ripping up the traditional script for aging (Wall Street Journal) see also Miami Is Losing Its Claim to a Cheaper Cost of Living Than NYC: The migration premium has evaporated. Miami’s metro area is now more expensive than New York’s — and the people who moved south for affordability are finding out the hard way. (Bloomberg)

Better Than Free: When copies are free, you need to sell things which can not be copied. There are a number of other qualities similar to trust that are difficult to copy, and thus become valuable in this network economy. I see roughly eight categories of intangible value that we purchase when we pay for something that could otherwise be. Kevin Kelly’s classic essay, freshly relevant — when copies are free, value migrates to things that can’t be copied: immediacy, personalization, authenticity, findability, embodiment, patronage, interpretation, and accessibility. (Kevin Kelly)

Why Am I Left-Handed?  I enjoy being left-handed. It grants entry into a smug little club, whose members — 10% of the human population — carry the secret knowledge that we are overrepresented among U.S. presidents, famous artists and musicians, and top athletes. An invisible difference in 10% of humans poses deep mysteries in several fields at once. An invisible difference in 10% of humans poses deep mysteries in several fields at once. (Quanta Magazine)

Trump’s New Election Conspiracy Isn’t About 2020. It’s About November. “What is important is understanding what he’s trying to do: He’s searching for a way to legitimize interference in an election he knows his party is going to lose in November.” (Civil Discourse with Joyce Vance)

• 29 Reasons We Loved the 2026 World Cup: The Ringer’s comprehensive love letter to the tournament — the goals, the upsets, the memes, and the cultural shift that happened while nobody was paying attention to baseball. Verde’s last stand to the prophetic photo of Messi and Lamine Yamal, this summer’s World Cup delivered on and off the pitch (The Ringer) see also Top 30: from half a million World Cup photos, why I love these the most: Our picture editor chooses his favourite images from the tournament including Lionel Messi’s cathedral, that delicious diving header from Jude Bellingham and a humbling scene in Gaza. The Guardian’s photo editor picked 30 from 500,000. The results are extraordinary — the sport, the fans, the moments between the moments. (The Guardian)

Video of the day: How the Iran War Is Rewiring the Oil Market

Be sure to check out the latest Masters in Business with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 

Nuclear energy could be in for a big decade

Source: Canary Media

 

 

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The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Transcript: Jason Wenk, Altruist founder and CEO

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Jason Wenk, Altruist founder and CEO, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

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MASTERS IN BUSINESS Jason Wenk, Founder & CEO, Altruist

Hosted by Barry Ritholtz  ·  Bloomberg Radio  ·  Interview Transcript

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:00:08): This week on the podcast, yet another extra special guest. Jason Wenk is founder and CEO of Altruist, a new artificial-intelligence-driven custodian challenging a lot of the legacy entities like Fidelity and Schwab that are stuck with all of their old hardware and software. I thought the conversation was fascinating, and I think you will also. With no further ado, my interview of Jason Wenk.

Jason Wenk, welcome to Bloomberg.

JASON WENK (00:00:50): My pleasure. Such a great intro.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:00:52): So I’m fascinated by the through line of your career. You are constantly focusing on creating lower-cost, tech-enabled financial advice. But I’m gonna put a pin in that and come back — I gotta start with your background. You studied computer science at Grand Valley State University. What was the original career plan? Was it technology and computers, or finance?

JASON WENK (00:01:19): No, so I’d never taken a finance class. I’d never met anybody who had money. My family never owned any stocks or mutual funds. I didn’t know what an IRA was, or even a 401(k) for that matter. But I grew up in the eighties and nineties, so I remember getting our first personal computer in the mid-nineties. The internet started to pick up a little bit of speed in the late nineties, and that was my dream — to go to Silicon Valley and work at a dot-com. You probably recall the market peaked out around 1999, and then a pretty major crash ensued.

So very accidentally, I did an internship at Morgan Stanley at 19 years old. I was a bit of an odd duck in that I took a lot of college classes when I was in high school, so I was already doing internships my first year of university. And I was presented an opportunity to move here to New York and to join Morgan Stanley. That was really my crash course in finance.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:02:20): And you were 19 or 20?

JASON WENK (00:02:22): Nineteen as an intern, and officially joined at age 20.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:02:25): What drew you to financial services instead of technology? Was it simply the dot-com implosion, and there were no jobs to be had in technology?

JASON WENK (00:02:35): I was still working in technology. My role — the internship — was productivity software; it just happened to be for a big investment bank. And then I spent about two years building different types of technology within the Morgan Stanley ecosystem. By the time I joined, they were Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, so they had this big retail wealth business. They also had prop trading and a number of other divisions, too.

So I didn’t really get too involved in personal wealth until maybe the last six months I was there, when I was put on a project. We were doing a lot of work with Morningstar, which back then was still sending out CD-ROMs to branches around the country. And if you had a big branch, that’d be hard — who had the CD-ROM? So we were just building networked versions of essentially the Morningstar database.

But I remember around that time, I was doing some pre-built prompts inside of these research platforms. And the way my mind worked, which was more around math, physics, computer science — I looked at these prompts and I thought, these are terrible prompts. In other words, the prompt would be: let’s build a screen so that financial advisors can easily build a portfolio, and the screen will be something like, find funds that have been around for five years, with turnover under 100 percent, with the same manager for five years or longer, that’s in the top quartile of their peer group. And on the surface you go, well, that seems pretty reasonable and fair — but that is no prediction of the future result. That is a terrible predictor of future outcomes. But it was sort of built as though it was a good predictor.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:04:18): Well, you have the data — past performance is right there. We have to do something with it.

I give Morningstar credit — they had an internal survey that more or less said, hey, don’t worry about the stars. The data shows if you just buy the least expensive fund, that’s the one most likely to give you the highest level of performance. And to their credit, they published that. I wanna say that was 2011, 2012. Really fascinating.

So you never really rotated through the departments where you’re smiling and dialing? Did you ever work as a broker?

JASON WENK (00:04:51): So I got licensed. I took the Series 7, Series 8, Series 24, Series 3 — all the classic licenses.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:04:58): The 24 — you wanted to be a supervisor?

JASON WENK (00:04:59): Yeah, and I’m not sure why. I was also a registered options principal — why I did that, I have no idea. Managed futures — again, not sure why I did that. But yeah, I did all of the research to understand the space, and I did go through the broker training program, sort of 2021 —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:05:26): 2021?

JASON WENK (00:05:27): Excuse me — 2001. Yeah, a little bit of a mistake there. And part of it was ’cause I wanted to move back to the Midwest. I think I had this romantic notion of going back home and helping people that I knew. The reality is nobody I knew had any money, so that wasn’t really going to work anyway. And really, before I even got started, I made the decision to leave and go start another business — kind of in the space, but adjacent. I didn’t do direct work with clients.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:05:52): So let’s talk about that. What was the first thing that you noticed in financial advice that led you to say, hey, this is broken, and I think I could use technology to build something better?

JASON WENK (00:06:04): Two things in particular. One was, around that time there was a transition from commission-based sales — brokers, if you will — to more fee-oriented financial planners. And for me, that really resonated. So this notion of, hey, can you give people more comprehensive planning advice —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:06:27): And be a fiduciary?

JASON WENK (00:06:28): Yeah. And also, I looked realistically at the way asset management worked, and I very much agreed with the Morningstar study that they published some 10 years later. A lot of this goes all the way back to Jack Bogle’s work. But just looking at a couple of years’ worth of research around asset management, I didn’t see a discernible benefit to stock picking or market timing. High cost, high turnover, high taxes — these things all eroded wealth. So part of me thought, well, is there a way that you can just get more people access to empirical, evidence-based investing? Maybe that also helps people do better.

The other part was accessibility. Again, I grew up in a farming town. There were no brokers, there were no bank advisors, there were no Edward Jones offices — there was really no access to advice. And I could see the direction the internet was taking us, really flattening the world. Everybody should be able to find advice and help through the internet.

So really, the first business, from an accessibility perspective — it was gonna be internet-based, it was a subscription service, and it was designed for people with 401(k)s. Because when I looked at the people I knew, that was about the closest thing they had to Wall Street, to a brokerage account — their defined contribution plan. So the idea was, let’s make it easy for people that have a 401(k) plan to get the absolute best results they can from their 401(k). And I spent almost three years building that business.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:07): This is Retirement Wealth Advisors?

JASON WENK (00:08:08): No, this is the one that doesn’t exist on my LinkedIn profile.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:12): This is before that.

JASON WENK (00:08:14): Yeah. So I spent from 2021 until 2024 —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:24): 2001 to 2004.

JASON WENK (00:08:25): 2001, yeah. Gosh, it shows how old I am. My mix-up — it only gets worse. The decades, the dates —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:30): The names. It just trends in one direction.

JASON WENK (00:08:32): Yeah. So 2001 till 2004. And honestly, when I look back at it, it was maybe a little bit too early. This was pre-robo-advisor, right? Pre-blogging — pre a lot of things that just got more people connected.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:50): Blogging was just starting around then. We went from GeoCities to things like TypePad.

JASON WENK (00:08:55): Yeah. You were a real trailblazer in that regard.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:08:58): It was compulsion — I had no choice. I had to.

JASON WENK (00:09:02): So look, pay-per-click advertising was just coming out. So you had things like Overture, which is kind of pre-Google, but you could buy the keyword for a phrase like “how to manage my 401(k)” for a penny, and you could be the top-ranked search. People would then land on my website, which was called Smarter Than Wall Street back then. And it would allow you to say, I work at General Motors, answer a few questions, and it would say, here’s how to allocate your 401(k). They’d get an email once a month if there was anything they should do differently. Of course, the emails never said that they should ever do anything differently.

And after about a year, I had built a pretty good-sized subscription business, but I started to have some churn, because people were like, why am I paying you every month to just send an email that says the same thing as the email the month before? And eventually I started asking people, well, what would be more valuable — sort of a churn survey, if you will. And people would say, look, if you would just do this for me, I’d pay you a lot more than 20 bucks a month. And that was really the genesis of Retirement Wealth. That’s even why it was called Retirement Wealth — because a lot of these 401(k) folks were retirement-focused.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:10:10): And that scaled up pretty rapidly. Was that the $4 billion advisory shop? No? So where did that go?

JASON WENK (00:10:18): So I ended up going to about 1.1 or 1.2 billion in assets. But yeah, it grew really fast. I started it in November — December of 2004 was when I got my registration — and ran that for about six years, roughly.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:10:34): And a billion in AUM is not insubstantial. That puts you into a category of —

JASON WENK (00:10:39): Especially back then.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:10:40): Yeah. Inflation-adjusted, we’re probably talking about 3 billion today. But that’s real revenue, that’s real clients. What made you say, all right, I’ve kind of done this — now let’s look at FormulaFolios?

JASON WENK (00:10:55): So I was always driven probably more by impact than by the size of assets or revenue. That company was bootstrapped. I built every single thing myself, wrote all of the code. Although the name was Retirement Wealth, it was a fairly tech-forward platform. I built my own proposal systems to really analyze the portfolio and then propose a new solution, digitized a lot of onboarding to really automate getting new clients on, and it was mostly virtual. So it was also before its time in the sense that it was built mostly from blogging, back in like the 2006-to-2010 era. It was a lot of things — it was doing well before its time.

And what ended up happening — really the catalyst to moving into the next business — was I was invited to speak at TD Ameritrade’s national conference. They were my custodian at the time. I loved the people there. They saw the unusual growth, and also that I was still in my twenties, and they thought, hey, we’d love to have you come speak and share a bit of how you’re doing what you’re doing. So I went to San Diego and I gave a session where I just said, hey, here’s how I’m getting new clients. I’m writing these blog posts — here’s the framework, how I do it. Here’s how I take these people from a stranger from the internet into a defined financial planning process, and then a defined portfolio. And it was so structured that I could then train other advisors. So I hired a few other advisors, and they came in and they could then run the process.

And at that time, a bunch of other advisors — I’d say hundreds of other advisors — started to reach out inbound: hey, how can I get access to your “system,” they would kind of call it. And the reality was, I didn’t want to hire 50 financial planners. I’ve always been a bit reclusive.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:12:56): You don’t wanna manage 50 people. But selling them the software — that’s a fair relationship.

JASON WENK (00:13:01): That seemed a lot better, right? So that’s where the idea was spawned — hey, maybe it makes more sense to license the software, make it easier for people to run their own business, but leveraging a lot of our technology.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:15): Was that FormulaFolios?

JASON WENK (00:13:15): Correct. Yeah.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:17): All right. And how big did that scale up to?

JASON WENK (00:13:19): It went zero to 4 billion in five years. And today it’s, I think, 14 billion or something like that.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:13:25): So I know that you were a programmer in college. You describe yourself as a developer and a math geek — you very much have a little bit of a hacker mentality. How did that technical — I don’t want to use the word self-identity, but just your self-perception — how did that affect your view of, here are the services that make sense for investors, for advisors, for this whole ecosystem that had been, especially in the two thousands, mostly ignored by Wall Street? It took 25 years for the fiduciary side to pass the commission-based brokerage side. So how did the technology background affect your perception of that market?

JASON WENK (00:14:10): Sure. Look, I think I’ve always been a little bit idyllic — you name your company Altruist, you probably have some generally idealistic tendencies. I think people who know me well would say I’m a bit of a macro thinker, but I don’t like working in the day-to-day weeds of most things. So for me, I’ve always thought in decades, and it wasn’t hard to look at the market in the early two thousands and say, well, this is the future. Even though, to your point, the RIA fiduciary channel back in 2004, when I started my first firm — it was maybe six to 800 billion in assets. Today it’s probably 10 trillion. So today it seems very obvious, but back then it was a relatively small part of the market. It was not obvious, maybe, to everybody.

But I looked at the demographics of the country, and there will be such a huge number of people who are going to need good-quality advice and planning. And if you think in first principles, which is a very common technology metaphor, and you have no bias about the way things had been done historically — to say, well, what is the right way to do things? — that just seemed like the obvious and only and objective future for this industry. And I wanted to be on the forefront of that.

So now, some 20-plus years later, the market is very obvious. A lot of people want to build in this space, and it’s the place that seems to be growing the fastest. That was crystal clear to me 20 years ago. And I think a lot of that comes from, again, that more first-principled, sort of Silicon Valley way of seeing the world.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:15:55): Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, discussing how he built the firm to compete with the big guys. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My guest this week is Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of the new custodian Altruist.

So Altruist describes itself as a modern custodian — emphasis on modern — for independent financial advisors. What does that mean in the real world? This has always been such a boring, plumbing type of industry. What was broken that required your attention?

JASON WENK (00:16:45): Well, I guess the opposite of modern is not modern, and the whole rest of the industry is pretty old. If you think about most of the infrastructure that’s used by financial professionals, the majority of it is 50 to 70 years old.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:01): That’s amazing.

JASON WENK (00:17:02): And it operates on mainframes, not cloud-native platforms. So I think the starting point is — and with no disrespect, these were innovative companies 50 years ago. They’re just not that innovative today.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:16): You’re saying the electric typewriter isn’t cutting-edge anymore?

JASON WENK (00:17:19): I mean, they’re still fun to use — the click and the clack.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:21): They make a nice noise.

JASON WENK (00:17:22): Right? It feels very — it reminds me of my grandparents’ house in the nineties or something. So look, getting to the problem statements: having been in this space a long time, for the longest time I would look at the industry and go, that just doesn’t make any sense. Why do we do it this way?

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:17:42): Again, we’ve always done it that way.

JASON WENK (00:17:43): Yeah, exactly. It doesn’t mean it’s the right way. And so some examples of that. I think it’s a bit crazy — if you’re a financial advisor or wealth manager… and I think if someone’s listening to this and they’re not one of those people, they’ll think, this is literally crazy. But this is the way it works. So first you have to have a custodian, right? This is a place where you’ll open accounts for your clients. They’ll safeguard your client assets, do all your record keeping, process trades —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:18:06): A trusted third party who is not managing the money. And that creates a built-in checks and balance.

JASON WENK (00:18:13): Somewhat — or it could be a built-in limitation, keeping that advisor from doing high-quality work. Which is what I sort of discovered as I peeled back the layers of the onion.

So these custodians — one would think a very simple thing they should be able to do is, let’s say you have three accounts with your financial planner. You’ve got an IRA, maybe a Roth IRA, a joint account with your partner, and you wanna know: how am I doing over the past 12 months? You’d think you could just log on to Schwab or Fidelity or Pershing or wherever and just click a button, and it would tell you that. But the reality is that you cannot get that information from your custodian. The custodian will only be able to tell you what you have today. It will give you access to your statements. The statements are not bundled at the household level. And what the custodian will tell you is that if you want that type of information, you need to buy a third-party portfolio accounting software: we’ll send them a daily file of all of your positions and transactions, that third party will reconcile all that data, and it will then allow you to run reports for your clients. And you’re gonna have to pay, depending on the size of your firm, anywhere from tens of thousands to millions of dollars for this third-party software. And this just fundamentally makes no sense at all. The custodian has all of the data. It should easily be able to reconcile that and run reports for advisors. But they can’t, and they won’t.

And you could go down this long list of things that they should be able to do, just as logic would tell you. For example, if you wanna bill a fee to your client — the client signs a fee agreement that says, I’m willing to pay my advisor 1 percent, hypothetically, and I’m willing to pay them that every quarter, calculated on the average daily balance, and bill me in arrears. Something simple. The custodian will say, that’s cool — what you need to do is, we’ll send your data to a third party, they can reconcile the data, you can then run a billing schema, it’ll create a CSV file, you can then upload that to our system, and we’ll then debit those fees from the accounts. But this whole process can take days. And by the time you go to debit those fees, sometimes a client will have had a distribution in their account, or a trade or something, and the fees get busted. It creates an account that gets overdrawn.

And fundamentally, again, there’s hundreds of these things, and you go, this makes no sense. Why is this the way things operate? This is largely the genesis of why you would build a brand-new custodian from scratch. And if you were going to build it in a modern way, you would probably make sure all of these things are just built in automatically.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:20:39): So that raises a really fascinating observation. Altruist first came to market 2020 — was it ’21?

JASON WENK (00:20:48): We wrote the first lines of code in January of 2019. I think we went into beta in early 2020, and then launched the product right in the heart of the pandemic, in 2020, 2021.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:20:58): So I remember when the firm first launched, and I remember hearing about it, and the initial reaction was — I don’t wanna say crickets, but kind of low-key: yeah, someone’s gonna disrupt these guys? We’ve got $10 trillion, we know what we’re doing custody-wise. And what started out as sort of a shrug — it didn’t take very long before there was a little bit of a freak-out. Like, wait a second, what’s going on here? They’re actually winning clients. How is this a thing? From your perch within building the company, how did you see the rest of the custodian market react to Altruist launching and just rolling out one new capability after another?

JASON WENK (00:21:48): So — and I wish I could remember where to properly attribute this — there’s a great saying: first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then you win. So it’s not surprising, when somebody makes a big, bold declaration that they’re going to change an industry and make it better, if you are effectively a duopoly or oligopoly, as our industry was. Almost all the assets were held by, at the time, three custodians. Back then it was Schwab, Fidelity, and TD Ameritrade. TD Ameritrade, shortly after we launched, was acquired by Schwab, really making the power dynamic two companies that have 80-plus percent market share. So, respectfully, I think there’s going to be a natural rent-seeking sort of mentality from those people who are the dominant players. Why would they ever want there to be any change? Why would they want to change their cost structure? Why would they want to modernize their systems? Things were great for those companies. So you’re not surprised that some folks may have been dismissive.

But advisors never were. When we first started putting prototypes out into the public and sharing our vision, we had thousands of advisors that signed up for our waitlist, hundreds that decided to become design partners — very early design partners — to help us build the platform. And we have this very loyal base of users that are very loud about how happy they are with the product. And we’ve done this by co-creating it with the advisors. It’s not lost on me that there are literally thousands of features that you have to build to support the wealth management industry. We can’t possibly know all thousand internally, so you need to have some awesome partners that can help shine a light on what the most important things are. So yeah, in the end, I think we have more than caught their attention. I think now there’s a fairly deep-rooted fear, actually, from a lot of the bigger boys.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:23:51): Yeah. So you have the three big incumbents — it’s a little bit of an oligopoly of Schwab, which is now Schwab-TD combined, Fidelity, and Pershing–Bank of New York. Everybody kinda looked at them and said, there’s no way we’re going up against those behemoths. You are one of the first companies to say, we’re gonna take on the custodians, because their legacy platforms just can’t do the things that we can do at scale. How do you think about the challenges of going up against — what is Fidelity, 18 trillion? And Schwab is 12 trillion? These are monsters. Bank of New York Pershing is the oldest bank — that’s Hamilton’s bank, literally. These are not, oh, I think I could disrupt Nokia with a better product. These are just the most entrenched, well-thought-of partners for advisors. What gave you the confidence to say, we could beat them at their own game?

JASON WENK (00:24:58): I think a big part of the confidence came from that early advisor reaction. But the truth is that these companies don’t have high NPS — these aren’t companies loved by their customers.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:25:14): NPS — net promoter score. We do one of those surveys every year, and I know that’s become super popular everywhere the past 20 years.

JASON WENK (00:25:22): You don’t have to look very far and wide, or have too many conversations, to hear wealth managers gripe about their custodians. Again, I was running one of the largest — I think when I stepped down from FormulaFolios, at the time it was the fastest-growing RIA in the history of the entire industry. We were growing at 16,000 percent on a three-year growth rate. So it was a true rocket ship in the sense of the RIA space. And I felt tremendous pain. My biggest pain point was my custodian — onboarding new clients. They were making you download forms from a form library, populate the forms by hand, send them out via DocuSign at best, sometimes requiring wet signatures or medallion stamp signature guarantees. It was literally like going backwards in time 20 years. Meanwhile, you had companies like Robinhood, where you could download an app on your phone at 18 years old, have your account open in 30 seconds, fund it with a hundred dollars, and buy fractional shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock commission-free.

It was so obvious to me that the old way custodians had been operating — they were still charging commissions, using paper — this was definitely not the right way to do things. And if you started looking at the impact to clients: what is the impact of forcing people to use whole shares? Why would the big custodians force you to use whole shares versus fractional shares? Fractional share trading had been around for over 20 years.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:26:47): It’s just math. It’s not that difficult to execute.

JASON WENK (00:26:49): Correct. This isn’t even hard — it’s arithmetic, geometry, algebra, right?

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:26:53): You’re not talking about exponential algos or anything like that.

JASON WENK (00:26:56): Precisely. But a lot of it is, you just start going, okay — and maybe this is a good tinfoil-hat theory here, but I’d say, what would the benefit to them be of not enabling fractional shares? Maybe that means more cash will be in client accounts — maybe they make half of their revenue from the cash spread, right? The net interest income on the cash that sits in client accounts. Maybe it also forces you — if you do want to use fractional shares, the only vehicle that trades in fractional shares, in other words where you can do notional, dollar-based buying, is mutual funds. And these mutual funds pay tremendous fees for distribution through these brokerage platforms. What if they are not allowing fractional shares because they really don’t want to disintermediate packaged products in general — to make things like direct securities more accessible to more people?

I just went down this rabbit hole, but the end result is, it costs investors a ton of money. You end up limiting the amount of tax benefits, you end up increasing the average client account size — so if you really want to have great efficacy in investment outcomes, you’d have to have tens of millions of dollars. And if you had fractional shares — as just one example — all of a sudden, a ton of that entrenched history goes away completely. Everybody can get access to the same type of investment strategies: individually managed accounts, lot-level tax trading so you can get the best possible after-tax outcomes. You can compress cash down to the lowest amount, so you’re reducing cash drag — this increases outcomes.

So I think in the end, if you put yourself on the right side of the client and you have time on your side, you will absolutely win. I think one of the best examples of that in our industry is Vanguard. What they did — they were laughed at for decades, a long time, and they didn’t even really reach massive scale until 25, 30 years into their journey. But again, if you just put yourself on the right side of the client — the end client — hey, we are going to do things that objectively and obviously produce better outcomes on an after-fee, after-tax, after-cash-drag basis; we’re going to provide delightful experiences with a true partnership with our advisors and clients — these things will work.

And again, I think you have to have a certain amount of craziness. One of our early investors — you might know Omani Carson, formerly known as Ron Carson.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:29:23): I was gonna say — Omani is his new name, his post-retirement name.

JASON WENK (00:29:26): And I love him dearly. But I remember, I met him very early in building Altruist, and we met for coffee in Venice, California, where the company was started. And Omani looks at me after I explained the company, and he’s like — pardon my French — “This is the craziest effing idea I’ve ever heard. I’m in. How do I give you money?” I think there’s a certain number of people who — when we’ve been doing this a long time, you eventually become numb to the status quo. And the status quo was totally shitty, right? It was not good for anybody.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:29:59): Except for the custodians themselves.

JASON WENK (00:30:00): Yeah, there was one party that really was happy with the status quo, right? And so I think as soon as we shed a little bit of light — now, there’s a ton of challenges you have to overcome, but again, there was no doubt in my mind this was gonna work when I started.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:30:11): You mentioned Robinhood and zero commission, which I wanna say was 2014 or 2015, and then Schwab rolled out commission-free trading in 2019. What did that shift in cost structure do to the relationship between investors and custodians, advisors and custodians? Did that change the way everybody looked at this? Or was this just, okay, I guess this is an even lower-margin business?

JASON WENK (00:30:42): So I think that’s a huge misconception. What’s interesting is that I wrote this piece in 2018, and we had one of our designers draw an infographic behind it. And it was the classic tip of the iceberg, where we showed what you see above the waterline and then what exists below the waterline.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:04): I just did one of those two weeks ago.

JASON WENK (00:31:06): It’s a pretty metaphor.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:08): It really is just so perfect — hey, here’s what you’re focusing on, but you gotta look at the things that matter even more.

JASON WENK (00:31:15): So we did this for custodians. And the thing people saw was the commission. So there was this belief — and advisors even didn’t know the facts. They would go to clients and say, hey, when you work with us and our independent third-party custodian, here’s how they get paid: they get paid $7 if you do a trade. It’s a pretty cheap, one-price —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:36): What about spreads? What about payment for order flow? I mean, the big money — the commission is just a break-even.

JASON WENK (00:31:42): A hundred percent, right. If you look at the big public companies that were in the space, maybe five to 10 percent of the revenue was from transactions, and commissions were maybe half of the transaction revenue.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:31:55): And that’s before we get to the float, which everybody loves.

JASON WENK (00:31:57): Correct. So there’s a ton of things that had, I’d say, historically been ignored or unknown. The biggest revelation when everybody went commission-free was that people started asking the question, well, how the heck do you make money? How does this business actually work if you’re giving away everything for free? Only then did people start to go, oh, wait a minute — that wasn’t even how you made money. That was literally just a complete smoke-and-mirrors way to fool me into believing you only made $7 a trade, when the reality was all of the real money was made by paying me 0.01 percent interest on my idle cash; making me trade whole shares, which makes me have more cash in my account than I really should; making me buy these different funds that all have a bunch of conflicts of interest through all of their various forms of 12b-1 and 15c-3 revenue-sharing agreements — just very esoteric stuff that very few people ever talk about. And to your point, on float and liquidity through PFOF — payment for order flow.

It really opened everyone’s eyes to the fact that the clearing and custody business, it turns out, wasn’t a high-scale, low-margin business at all. In fact, it was a very high-margin business, and that was just one kind of irrelevant piece that confused people into believing that was the full price of admission.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:33:20): I recall a couple of years ago — it was after Schwab went zero-commission, commission-free trading — I don’t remember if it was TD or Schwab, but one of the public companies, in a quarterly earnings report, 57 percent of their gross came from the float — came from what they got paid on the difference between what they were paying investors, 0.0-whatever, and the actual rate that they could generate internally. How does Altruist deal with that?

JASON WENK (00:34:00): So I think the key is doing whatever you’re doing transparently, and whenever you can, giving as much of the economics to the client. I’m a big believer in the flywheel, made popular by Good to Great, one of my favorite books. And our flywheel is: the first spoke is, invest in innovation that drives better outcomes for advisors. The second is, invest in innovation that drives better outcomes for end consumers — the end client. If we do those two things, it will drive the highest satisfaction amongst our user base. This will increase the amount of assets on our platform, which gives us the scale to invest more in innovation — which drives better outcomes for advisors, better outcomes for clients.

If you’re going to do that, you have to earn revenue, of course. But in our case, we built a very integrated wealth platform. So yes, we have custody and clearing revenue. We make money on net interest income — the float, if you will. We make some revenue on payment for order flow, but we built what’s called the Wheel order routing system. It’s 100 percent optimized to drive the best possible execution for every single client transaction. If we happen to get a better execution through Citadel or Jane Street, whomever, we might make a tiny amount — literally measured in fractions of basis points, mills. It’s the lowest amount of revenue we earn, but there is something there. We do earn money, again, on float, but we offer fractional shares, so we have the lowest cash holdings in the entire industry — people can hold virtually nothing. We also have some earnings from things like mutual funds, but we have the lowest amount of mutual funds in the entire industry, because we offer fractional shares — people can buy ETFs, they can buy individual securities. So we have very, very little in the way of rev share through fund companies. But there’s definitely money that is made at that clearing layer.

Where we’ve really innovated is that we also do all of the software layer for advisors, and we offer an asset management layer for advisors. So each component of the Altruist business is generally going to be 60 to 80 percent cheaper than if these things were bought individually. So you may recall, when I shared the story about how you go to a custodian and you say, why can’t you do my fee billing? That makes no sense — you have to buy a third-party software. We built all of these things natively, and most of them are either free or very low cost, because we have this benefit, if you will, of stacking the various forms of services that advisors and their clients need.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:36:26): On a modern platform.

JASON WENK (00:36:27): Correct. And we do it with, I’d say, fairly insane amounts of automation. So the knock I made on using PDFs — there’s no PDFs necessary at Altruist.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:36:40): You’re not exporting CSVs and then having to upload them to Claude to get a report once a quarter or a year.

JASON WENK (00:36:48): A hundred percent. You can open an entire family’s accounts, do all of their account transfers, link all their bank accounts, and do the whole thing in under two minutes. The accounts are being real-time validated, the transfers are being real-time validated — in 98-plus percent of these workflows, there’s no human being ever involved. So every time we build a new innovation or automation, we’re able to operate with a much higher amount of operating leverage than anyone else in the industry. This allows us to invest back into more innovation, which allows us to offer more services at lower price points.

So look, we earn revenue just like everyone else does. I think one interesting tidbit we don’t talk a lot about is the fact that, on the aggregate, Altruist earns more revenue than, I believe, any other RIA custodian on a per-dollar basis — meaning, per dollar on our platform, we earn more revenue than the big players. And it’s not because we charge more. In fact, we have the lowest fee schedule in the entire industry. But it’s because we do more for those advisors than just provide custody and clearing. We’re offering software and services, AI products, asset management services, automations around things like tax management and tax-loss harvesting. So because people use more surface area, we end up having more — and more diverse — revenue as a business, and we have much better operating leverage, because we have so much automation that we don’t have to hire a lot of people to actually offer this at scale. So these are a lot of the benefits of modern, right? If you build in this day and age, you’re not going to build the same way you would if you did it 50 years ago.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:38:17): You are earning more revenue as the custodian per dollar on the platform, yet at the same time the advisor is paying less cost per dollar on the platform — of course, because they’re not working with five or ten third-party add-ons. It’s just one turnkey solution, correct?

JASON WENK (00:38:36): Yeah, it’s material. And consumers, if they’re using the platform correctly, are getting better results as well. Because they don’t have things like cash drag, because they can be more fully invested, because they can reduce the need for third-party investment products — they can hold securities directly on the platform, reducing expense ratios — and because we have automation around tax management, they can drive down the tax consequences of investing materially. So again, it’s one of these things where it almost sounds too good to be true, right? But yes — advisors should be able to run more efficient, better businesses, we can have a great business, and consumers can win, too. That is very much a real possibility. There doesn’t have to be a loser. It’s a win ecosystem.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:39:20): Let’s talk about AI and automation and your platform, Hazel. I know my team loves it — everybody’s super positive about it. Is Hazel a standalone AI bet? Is it part of the long-term vision? Is it planning and custody and other services as one seamless workflow on a single platform? Tell us all about Hazel.

JASON WENK (00:39:48): So first, to answer your question: it’s very tightly integrated with Altruist, but it’s available totally separately, so really any wealth manager can use it. We have people using it all over the world, in many different industries. We have large CPA firms that are using Hazel, and obviously large financial advisory firms.

Part of the thinking here is that the Altruist business will eventually be a very large, scaled business with trillions of dollars in assets, but the total size of our industry is going to be tenfold that, right? So we don’t want to limit the power of AI to just whatever percentage of market share Altruist has — we want everybody to benefit from these innovations. And the things that are really cool with Hazel — again, it can be used by any financial advisor, or really a lot of different segments of financial services. It’s been a ton of fun to build. And a lot of what we’re doing is just taking the hardest, most laborious, non-glamorous but important work that used to be really hard to get if you didn’t have tens of millions of dollars, and we’re bringing the unit cost down to like three to five dollars. So you can do incredibly complex tax planning, and do it for, again, effectively a dollar to five dollars. This makes it accessible to everybody. And AI — people have their fears about what could go wrong, but we like to think this is a lot of the “what can go right.”

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:41:19): Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, discussing how he built the firm to compete with the big guys. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My guest this week is Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of the new custodian Altruist.

I’ve seen some crazy numbers as to what advisors manage. I don’t wanna talk about mutual funds — I wanna talk about straight-up RIAs, who are your prime clients as a custodian. Ten, 12, $20 trillion — just crazy numbers out there. What is the total addressable market there, and how much does the oligopoly — the big three — have of that total market?

JASON WENK (00:42:17): So the approximate number is 10 trillion today. It’s about 35,000 firms. Roughly half of these firms are SEC-registered investment advisors, meaning —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:42:27): More than a hundred million each.

JASON WENK (00:42:28): More than a hundred million. And then the other half are state-registered firms that are sub-100 million. Some of those are just new entrants — firms at their first registration that will probably mature into the SEC within a year or two. And others just operate small, independent businesses serving a loyal but small group of clients.

At the top of the market — I think Pershing oftentimes gets lumped into the big three. They don’t have much market share of the RIA segment. It’s a bit muddy, but the reason is they support all of the big broker-dealers, which usually have a companion corporate RIA, and that’s kind of how they get in here. But for true standalone RIAs, 85 percent of the assets are with just two companies: Schwab being the largest — they’re north of 50 percent market share — and then Fidelity being the second largest. So it’s your very classic disruption setup. If you were to just say, hey, what would be the recipe for disruption? You’d say: big, fast-growing market, dominated by old companies, using old infrastructure, with generally low NPS — low customer satisfaction. That is exactly the market that we are in today.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:43:39): Huh. Really, really fascinating. So given the fact that you got to build a clean-sheet custodian — you’re not built on this legacy hardware that can’t do all these things fast and easy — what’s the biggest take-up from advisors? Where are they still inefficient? Is it just paperwork and portfolio management? Is it tax? Is it compliance? Is it client service and disbursements? Where are the biggest advantages? Or is it just the whole thing?

JASON WENK (00:44:11): So we break this down into two elements. With Altruist, we have our core wealth business — this is the custody and the software related to custody. We started there. It’s a super big, hairy build. It just takes a long time — hundreds of thousands of engineering hours. There are no shortcuts. Very expensive, time-consuming.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:44:34): Was that a BHAG reference I heard?

JASON WENK (00:44:34): Oh, absolutely. This is as big and hairy as they get, right? And again, there are no shortcuts. But that infrastructure is so critical, because what it allows you to do, if it’s done the right way, is tackle all the other work. So I’ll start with the custody part. You can open accounts super fast and do all of the automation around onboarding clients. This is great, but you only onboard a client once — ideally. And so if you serve a client for 30 years, the custody part is really a pretty small part of the picture. It was a huge friction point, because it was oftentimes one of the first experiences that a client would have with their advisor. And if it was a bad experience — as it often was — it’s usually not fast, you don’t have a lot of clarity: hey, when is my transfer going to be done? Why did this thing get rejected? Why am I redoing this paperwork? So we solved a lot of the infrastructure.

Now, with our AI products — Hazel — we’re tackling the rest of the 30 years, right? So maybe there’s 5 percent or less of a client relationship that’s really connected to the custodian: you’re onboarding the client, you’re setting up rules around trading and rebalancing and tax management. But a lot of the work really is all of the one-to-one, hard-to-scale work. So you meet a new client — they’re a prospect at this point. You need to uncover a bunch of data that they have, you need to then analyze that, build a financial plan, create a proposal. Once they agree to it, then you do that onboarding, and now you have to serve that client for decades. And there are going to be all of these life events that happen, all of these emotions that these folks will live through with you. It could be massive changes in macro conditions; it could be changes to their family — whether it’s death, divorce, new children, etc. There are so many things that happen, and advisors have to be able to react — ideally, be proactive, but react to all these things — and make sure your money’s aligned at all times.

And this is where AI is incredibly powerful, where you can take a ton of that work that used to be heavily compromised… And compromise is interesting, because every advisor, whether they want to admit it or not, historically has been making compromises for their clients. And it goes one of two directions. One compromise is: I wanna save the world, I’ve got a hero complex, I’m gonna take every client under the sun. If I do that, the compromise is I can’t possibly give the highest level of quality, care, and service to every client — it’s just not possible; you can’t earn enough money and revenue from the lower end of your client base. The other compromise might be: I am not willing to compromise on the quality and service and attention, but as a result, I can only serve 50 families, and so my minimum is going to have to be $10 million or something like that. Where the compromise is, I can’t actually give my advice to as many people as I’d like to.

AI is this great equalizer. You think about all the infrastructure we built at Altruist, and you then layer on all of the agents that can do things like gather data for you, build financial plans, build tax plans, help you be incredibly responsive to client emails and questions — to build a level of intelligence across your client base that no human being could ever possibly attain. So it’s very easy to have an incredibly precise and highly personalized perspective on every unique client that you serve. So these are the things that we’re building. I think in the end, the clearing and custody business will end up becoming very agentic. These agents will be the ones who are probably logging on, if you will, and they’ll be performing functions that today humans have to log in to do. But it’s a pretty exciting time to build.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:48:22): Really interesting. I recall a couple of years ago — and I don’t wanna put words into anyone’s mouth, but it was the CEO of either BlackRock or Vanguard or somebody that size — was asked, what keeps you up at night? And the answer was cybersecurity and fraud. And I totally understand — no one wants to wake up one day and a billion dollars is missing. How do you integrate that into Altruist? How do you think about the human element — deepfakes and synthetic identity and voice fraud and cloning and all that stuff? What can the modern custodial platforms do that, hey, some of the big guys don’t have the integration with technology to do, to engage in this arms race against the bad guys?

JASON WENK (00:49:18): I mean, I think the biggest reason they’d have that paranoia is that they’re working on a 50-year-old tech stack. And we see this with the latest Anthropic models — you connect those models, they sit on top of some legacy infrastructure, and they’ll find hundreds of critical vulnerabilities that no human being could have ever identified, because the code base is essentially one giant monolithic code base. It is just this huge albatross that these companies have been dealing with for decades. And replatforming is really hard. If you’re already big, you’re at scale, and you’ve got tens of trillions of dollars, it is nearly impossible to replatform and go from physical, mainframe-based technology into a cloud-based infrastructure using smaller, more manageable microservices. So yeah, it’s a huge risk. If I was running a giant old bank or brokerage, I would probably have the same primary paranoia.

If you’re building today, the best defense is oftentimes a strong offense. So why not just build, again in first principles, a bunch of protocols to make it much harder for bad actors to even get in the door? And this is overstating the obvious, but just having modern multi-factor authentication and requirements for security keys — even eliminating some of the highest-risk channels; for example, phone calls are a lot easier to dupe, ironically, than a properly built multi-factor authentication program. So I think there’s a lot that will change. We don’t rest on the fact that, oh, we’re a tech company, therefore we’re impenetrable. Of course we have bad actors trying to come after our clients all the time. And I think that if you’re not building — especially AI that can help identify other AI and other bad actors — you’re in a bit of a quandary. And it’s really hard to do that if your core platform, again, has tens of millions of lines of code written in languages that honestly nobody uses and hasn’t used for decades. That is a major problem with financial services.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:29): So you’ve raised a decent amount of venture capital money. I wanna say the 2025 Series F gave you a just-under-$2-billion valuation. I think it was the Series F — I don’t remember.

JASON WENK (00:51:42): Yeah, correct. Last year.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:51:42): Discuss the need for capital to build out. And we’re not talking about the hyperscalers that are spending ungodly amounts of hundreds of billions of dollars — this is just a nice little startup that’s taking on a couple of big, entrenched companies and working off a clean sheet. What has the capital spend been like on the technology side?

JASON WENK (00:52:08): So we’ve raised a little over 600 million in capital over the last seven years. I don’t think we’ll need any additional capital going forward — we still have a lot of cash on the balance sheet.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:52:20): You’re cash-flow positive now?

JASON WENK (00:52:23): Our broker-dealer’s been profitable for about three years.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:52:26): Profitable — I wasn’t even talking profitable. I was just asking if you’re at least holding your head above water.

JASON WENK (00:52:31): Yeah. Well, look, in our industry, every broker-dealer’s financial records are public, so you can go look up our balance sheet — it’s not hard to find. But we still use cash on the balance sheet for R&D investments, to keep building more tools. You can imagine, if we backed off from our aggressive building of products and features, it wouldn’t be a hard business to run standalone for decades.

But there’s a serious cost to starting a custodian. Beyond the cost of building all of the technology, there are also the regulatory requirements and the capital requirements. When you run a brokerage business, every time you add a new client, a new dollar to your platform, you have to have reserve capital in your broker-dealer. And so there’s no shortcut. This is something where I tell people every now and again — they’ll ask me, hey, what would it take for someone to compete? I’d say, well, it’ll take about five years and at least $250 million just to have a shot — just to have any shot in the dark of making it. And that assumes, of course, you do it right, and what you build is somehow substantially better than anything else in the market, and you can get enough clients to run it on. But just to give yourself a shot — it’s, again, non-trivial.

And just to pick up on it, ’cause you made a comment about these sort of hyperscalers building these foundation models — I’m not so sure that when we look back in 20 years — or maybe 30 years, 40 years, 50 years, some amount of time in the future — at what were the most impactful companies that made the biggest difference for society, I’m not so sure those are the ones that we’ll be talking about. Really, I think it’ll be businesses like Altruist that we’ll be talking about, and going, wow, they have managed to unlock trillions of dollars for consumers. And that is not something that any of us can be convinced is possible with foundation models yet, at this point. All they are are money-guzzling machines that have yet to figure out how to turn inference into profits. In other words, their costs are higher than what they’re reselling their products and services for. I’m as big a fan and believer and user of AI products as anybody, but when we really start measuring impact — what changes the world — that’s very possible, but there’s nothing proven about it.

What we’re doing is very proven. You can very objectively say, if we give every single client, I don’t know, 1 percent back in economic advantage, and you scale that across trillions of dollars for decades, you can start measuring your impact in hundreds of billions of dollars. That, to me, is more than a small startup. It’s incredibly ambitious, but it’s incredibly good for humanity. I hope more people do this type of stuff.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:55:10): That’s Eric Balchunas’ column, which became a book — the Vanguard Effect. I wanna say it was like 2016, 2018: Vanguard has saved $2 trillion in fees for clients. I mean, that’s an insane, insane number. And you guys are looking to push into the same space.

I want to be respectful of your time. Before I jump to my favorite questions, I just have to ask one other question. You’ve built multiple businesses in the wealth management and fintech space. What’s the repeatable lesson that carries over from one to another? Or is each one a completely different animal?

JASON WENK (00:55:51): I mean, these are all pretty connected businesses. If someone looks at the evolution arc of my career, it’s sort of like each time I find a problem —

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:56:01): Go on to the next one.

JASON WENK (00:56:02): Yeah. You kinda go, okay, well, that was an interesting problem, but this is an even bigger problem, and this is an even bigger problem. I’m curious — now, I think there’s going to be a reasonably good need for a highly specialized LLM, specifically narrowly trained for our industry. I’m not sure the big LLMs will do it, so maybe we’ll do that at some point in the future. But the point is, there’s always something that has the potential to make a bigger impact.

And one thing I’ll say — for me, I don’t spend a ton of time trying to compare what I do to what other entrepreneurs do, so I can’t really say if there’s a lesson to be learned broadly. But with each venture that I’ve been involved with, I’ve started with a pretty simple North Star, which is: I want to help people. These are all mission-driven organizations, and I’m very passionate about that. This allows you to attract other people that are also mission-driven — these are your missionaries versus mercenaries. And we have some of the most incredible people. I could never even dream of assembling a team like what we have at Altruist, but it’s because they share that same core ethos of serving clients, driving better outcomes — again, sort of being on the right side of the customer, doing things that really matter.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:57:18): So given that, look out five to 10 years. Where is Altruist? What are you doing? How big is Altruist at that point?

JASON WENK (00:57:28): It’s hard to predict with precision just how big, but I suspect we’ll be very large. If we look at the trajectory of the business today — again, we don’t talk a lot about our numbers publicly, so people have to sort of take Jason’s word for it — but in our first five years of operating, from when we opened our first account, we had more assets on our platform than Robinhood, Betterment, Wealthfront, Public, Stash, M1, and Acorns combined. So when people wonder, is this working? It’s scaling very, very rapidly, and it’s growing at a really, really fast pace. People sometimes don’t understand the sort of network effect you get when you serve advisors and those advisors are growing fast. Firms like yours are growing super fast, the clients are adding deposits to their existing accounts, and the market tailwind is pretty material.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:58:19): Fifteen percent a year for the past 15 years.

JASON WENK (00:58:20): Yeah. And it’s better for advisor clients than it is for self-directed clients. So these are all things that create enormous tailwinds for businesses like ours. So I think 10 years out, we’ll be multiple trillions in assets, serving many millions of end clients. And likely, where advisors have kind of capped out at a hundred or 125 or 150 clients, those laws of physics will sort of be removed. And I think that’s a net great thing.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:58:44): All right, I wanna be respectful of your time, and I’m gonna jump to our speed round — we’re gonna do these really quickly. Starting with: who are your mentors who helped shape your career?

JASON WENK (00:58:55): So, Nick was our first investor at Altruist. He was also a big supporter of me at my last company. He’s a partner at Venrock, and he’s just awesome.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:04): What are your favorite books? What are you reading currently?

JASON WENK (00:59:07): Right now I’m reading Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark. It’s a book from 2016, 2017. He’s a professor at MIT and one of the real forward, early thought leaders in AI. There are three phases of AI, and I’d say we’re in Life 2.0 right now — so, human-powered. Go read the book and you’ll find out what comes with 3.0. It’s a good one.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:33): That’s interesting. And you mentioned Good to Great. Anything else you wanna mention?

JASON WENK (00:59:37): Yeah — these are a little bit cornier, but some of the most important books for me… I’m a total math nerd, so I can live in a Max Tegmark book forever. But I had to learn a lot of soft skills to be a better entrepreneur, and I learned a lot of those from reading Seth Godin’s books. One of my favorites.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (00:59:51): Seth is great — amazing books, great blog as well. Let’s talk about what you’re listening to, streaming, or watching. What’s keeping you entertained on these cross-country flights?

JASON WENK (01:00:02): So I don’t watch much TV, although I did watch your Knicks. Congratulations.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:00:07): Talk about perfect timing and a fairly easy path — it was the perfect storm.

JASON WENK (01:00:14): They avoided my Pistons — I’m a Detroit Pistons fan. But yeah, I don’t watch a lot of TV. I do listen to a lot of podcasts. I listen to yours. I’m a big fan of Harry Stebbings, so 20VC is a good one I listen to quite a bit. And then I listen to Lenny’s Podcast — if you’re a tech person; Lenny is a product person who goes deep into how different tech companies are being built, especially product-led companies. So those are some things I listen to a lot.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:00:42): Huh, really interesting. Final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in — fill in the blank — entrepreneurship, fintech, or even financial services?

JASON WENK (01:00:55): I think in any career, I would become the most AI-forward person in your field that you could possibly be. It does not matter if you’re working in sales, if you’re working in tech, if you’re working in financial services. If you can become the person who, when you walk into the room, is the absolute master of Claude for your job function, I think that’s one of the most important things for any person. I think young people have an actual advantage there, and it’s one they should definitely be leveraging.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:01:25): You’re not gonna be replaced by AI — you’re gonna be replaced by someone who uses AI better than you do.

JASON WENK (01:01:30): It’s getting cliché, but it’s very true.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:01:33): And our final question: what do you know about the world of technology, entrepreneurship, or financial technology today that would’ve been helpful back in the two thousands when you were first ramping up?

JASON WENK (01:01:47): I mean, I don’t know that there’s necessarily some innovation that I wish I knew. I just wish I would’ve spent more time getting proximate to really high-caliber people. Now that I’m older and I’ve done a few things, I’ve gotten the chance to meet some just outstanding people. Man, if you can get close to those people early in your career, it’s just going to be such a massive accelerant, because your way of thinking is going to be so much better and sharper and inspired. That’s what I’d do.

BARRY RITHOLTZ (01:02:16): Thank you, Jason, for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Jason Wenk. He is founder and CEO of fast-rising custodian Altruist. If you enjoyed this conversation, well, check out any of the previous 648 we’ve done over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube — wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

I would be remiss if I didn’t thank the crack team that helps put these conversations together each week: Alexis Noriega is my video producer; Anna Luke is my podcast producer; Sean Russo is my head of research. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

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10 Monday AM Reads

My early Monday morning reads:

2% of What? Redefining inflation is not the way to achieve price stability. Warsh confirmed that 2% is the target level, but he did not, and has not, confirmed that PCE prices are the yardstick. Aside from reading out results from the FOMC projections that he chose not to participate in, Warsh has not referred to PCE prices once during his confirmation hearing, first press conference, a central banker panel in Sintra, or two days of congressional testimony. PCE inflation is the yardstick at the Fed. That’s a glaring omission for a Fed Chair, and for a person who likes catchphrases, it’s unlikely to be an oversight.  (Stay-At-Home Macro)

• SpaceX Slump Set to Wipe Out $1 Trillion in Value as Shares Slide: SpaceX shares tumbled on Friday, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value from the rocket and artificial intelligence giant’s all-time high. The stock fell 5.4% to $123.99 per share, giving the company a market value of $1.63 trillion. The value stood at $2.64 trillion at the close on June 16, its third day of trading.(Bloomberg).see also SpaceX Bonds Are Trading Like Junk Bonds. What Does That Mean for Investors? (The Globe and Mail)

• Nondiversifiable Risks in Investment Portfolios: The risks you can’t diversify away — geopolitical, systemic, regulatory — and why pretending they don’t exist is the most common failure in portfolio construction. (CFA Institute)

Can Netflix Become (More Like) YouTube? Faster Than… YouTube is poised to unify the streaming championship belts… (Spyglass)

• How Trump’s Policies Cost US Travel Industry $40 Billion:  Tariffs, toughened borders, and visa policies have pushed the US into a tourism trough. (Bloomberg)

The Americans Striking It Rich in the Data-Center Buildout: One family sold its struggling farmland for $22 million, joining a new class of multimillionaires who are cashing in on the AI data-center boom.  “Their 89-acre farm in this rural town of 4,000 might be worth more than $20 million. To Marilee and David Kiliti, that ridiculously high price sounded like a bunch of deer bologna.” 96 families in Salem Township, Pa., sold about 1,700 acres to data-center developer QTS for $586 million. (Wall Street Journal)

• Disaster Rehearsal: Faking death at O’Hare’s triennial airplane crash simulation. Morley Musick’s essay in n+1 on the strange ritual of preparing for catastrophes — the drills, the kits, the mental models — and what it reveals about how we process anxiety in an era of compounding crises. (n+1)

• Punctuation: A Generational Divide: Judith Shulevitz on commas, periods, and what texting has done to them. Can parents ever learn to text like their kids? Should they even try? (The Atlantic)

• Could That Museum Visit Help You Live Longer?: The data on arts engagement and longevity is surprisingly robust. Regular museum visits correlate with longer life — even after controlling for income, education, and health. A psychiatrist says engaging with the arts not only helps biologically. It can also make you feel more alive. (Wall Street Journal)

This World Cup sealed it: Messi is the best male athlete of all time: Messi is the best player at the World Cup, and the best male athlete of all time. Ryan O’Hanlon makes the data-driven case (ESPN)

Video of the day: Why AI Can’t Take Your Job

Be sure to check out the latest Masters in Business with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 


Source: BIS

 

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10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Inside Nokia’s Race to Catch the iPhone and Android Wave: IEEE Spectrum’s oral history of Nokia’s doomed attempt to compete with the smartphone revolution — a masterclass in how incumbents fail even when they see the future coming.  (IEEE Spectrum)

• The CDC Has a Cyclospora Lab. DOGE Downsized It Last Year: Former CDC staffers on the cuts now haunting the outbreak response: “Based on simple math, these outbreak responses—which require rapid, timely responses—are going to be greatly diminished,” the former CDC lab director tells WIRED. (Wired) see also Why Do We Need Explosive Diarrhea to Remind Us Public Health Matters?  Lisa Jarvis on the Michigan cyclosporiasis outbreak and hollowed-out public health. Headline of the day! (Bloomberg free)

An SEC email address mix-up is causing confusion and threatening to disrupt its proposal to scrap quarterly reporting requirements: The comment (or…comments) period on the semiannual reporting rule closed on July 6, but the email address confusion cropped up on Monday in a letter to the commission from nonprofit investor advocate Better Markets. The letter, addressed to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda, said the posted email address was “incorrect,” and said the error “undoubtedly deprived some members of the public of the opportunity to express their views on an extensive, far-reaching and dramatic change to corporate reporting that upends half a century of practice.”
So on brand…  (Fortune)

Its the golden age of insider trading:
Truth Social to sell trading firms ‘fastest’ access to Trump’s posts. Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid-for, licensed data feed that will give banks and trading firms “the fastest” access ‌to posts from influential Truth Social accounts, such as President Donald Trump’s, whose posts often move global markets. The product, called “Truth API,” will deliver posts from the 10 most influential accounts to customers at a significantly faster pace than a regular push notification on the Truth Social platform, a spokesperson said. (Reuters)
-White House teleprompter operator made more than $100K betting on Trump’s speeches: Gabriel Perez, a technical assistant who has been operating Trump’s teleprompter since 2016, is in talks with federal regulators to settle allegations he used his inside knowledge of the president’s speeches to win more than $100,000. (ABC News)

Counterfeit Air-Bag Parts Are Killing U.S. Drivers—and the Government Can’t Stop It: Counterfeit airbag parts are killing American drivers, and regulators can’t stem the flow. The Journal investigates the replacement part that might be a grenade. After 10 deaths, regulators are warning the public about airbags in used cars with components marked as made by a Chinese company, but tracing them is difficult (Wall Street Journal)

For Software Engineers, the AI Reckoning Is Already Here: Artificial intelligence has changed computer programming more than it has any other profession, and coders are transforming right along with it. (Businessweek)

• The Mystery Money Powering Trump’s Second Term: The president and his allies have built a network of groups financed by wealthy donors and businesses that is advancing his priorities with little public disclosure. (Wall Street Journal)

The Big Read. After the strongman The Magyar revolution: Hungary’s new era What will the dismantling of the Orbán machine lead to? (Financial Times free)

A Free-Speech Meltdown: PEN America’s president resigned over an article detailing the isolation and exclusion that many Israeli and Jewish writers feel after October 7. (The Atlantic) see also FCC Officials Took Pricey Gifts From Paramount as the Company Needed Approval for Billion-Dollar Deals: ProPublica documents the gifts — Kennedy Center galas, fancy dinners — that Paramount lavished on FCC officials while seeking regulatory approval. The appearance of corruption is indistinguishable from the thing itself. (ProPublica)

Vinyl in the Veins: Behind the nostalgia lies an uncomfortable truth: every record is made of oil. (Longreads)

Video of the day: We Need to Talk About Louis – Part 1 of 5

People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively Than the U.S.

Source: Pew Research Center

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

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MiB: Jason Wenk, Altruist founder and CEO



 

 

This week, I speak with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian for independent financial advisors. We discuss why Jason started the company and his plans to change asset management through technology. He weighs in on the state of RIAs, and how AI is going to change everything.

A list of his current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here on Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Lori Heinel, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Investment Management, the asset management arm of giant State Street Corp. She oversees over $5.7 trillion in assets (as of year-end 2025), which includes everything from index funds and ETFs to active strategies, multi-asset solutions, and alternatives. She was named to Forbes’ 2025 “50 Over 50” list.

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

 

This Is Marketing: You Can’t Be Seen Until You Learn to See by Seth Godin

Our Mathematical Universe: My Quest for the Ultimate Nature of Reality by Max Tegmark

Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap…and Others Don’t by Jim Collins
 Why Some Companies Make the Leap...and Others Don't

 

Books Barry Mentioned

The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions by Eric Balchunas

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry With It? The largest U.S. automakers have backed away from electric vehicles, even as global sales are booming. The decision may make them obsolete. (New York Times)

AI is changing what we can do. Who we become is still our choice: To understand AI’s effect on moral character, ethicist Kwame Anthony Appiah goes back to John Stuart Mill, and the idea that people are shaped by their choices. (Humanist Review) see also AI isn’t destroying entry-level jobs. It’s changing them: Here are the ways leading companies are already responding to the AI revolution in professional services. (Financial Times)

From Hong Kong to Xiānggǎng: The Hong Kong of old is over. Go to Xiānggǎng and see for yourself. Stephen Roach on Hong Kong’s transformation into Xiānggǎng — the slow-motion absorption of a once-global city. (Conflict Stephen Roach)

Shooting Starlink: The “no limits” partnership between Russia and China is taking aim at Elon Musk: Secret documents from a series of clandestine Russian-Chinese military forums reveal a joint plan to defeat Elon Musk’s Starlink and a weapons development partnership far deeper than either country will admit. From air- and missile-defense systems to AI-enhanced drone capabilities, cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is allowing Russian forces to keep pace with Ukrainian innovations while China gains the opportunity to test its wares under combat conditions. Although the threat of increased Western sanctions continues to place constraints on their “no limits” partnership, Russia and China are moving forward with several joint projects — and former U.S. military officers are concerned about Washington’s will to stop them. (The Insider)

What Even Is Ultraprocessed Food? It’s less a useful label and more of a vibe. One of the biggest boogeymen around these days is ultraprocessed food. You can see dozens if not hundreds of news articles every week decrying the damage that these foods are doing to our health. UPFs are apparently responsible for everything from dementia to heart disease and virtually every other health problem in between. They’re so bad that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is considering “taking action” against UPFs to stop Americans from eating them. (Slate)

The Lost Joy of Music Piracy: What.CD, Oink, and the banalities of streaming. As an avid pirate suddenly finding himself in the midst of the music business, Sheridan saw the issue from a different angle than most of the suits he was surrounded by. “I got brought in and we were being flown to New York, the label was taking us out to these expensive dinners and paying for everything—top notch hotels, everyone had private cars and drivers. There was so much money going around, and it wasn’t the artists who were rolling in cash. I remember one of my first comments to Trent [Reznor] was, ‘Now I see why CDs cost 18 dollars.’” (Pigeons & Planes)

What will be left for us to work on? A thoughtful essay on the shrinking frontier of human-only work as AI capabilities expand. The question isn’t whether machines will take jobs — it’s whether the jobs that remain will be worth doing. My keynote at ICML 2026 (AI As Normal Technology)

• Winners of the International Aerial Photographer of the Year: Stunning images from above — the kind of photography that makes you reconsider what the world actually looks like when you’re not standing on it. A collection of winners and selected images from the competition’s “Top 101” grouping, chosen from more than 1,500 entries by professional and amateur aerial photographers around the world (The Atlantic)

The 25 most influential works of American culture: A decade-by-decade look at the books, music, art and ideas that shaped society. The Washington Post’s interactive ranking — across music, literature, film, TV, and art. The list will start arguments, which is the point. (Washington Post)

• The bitter history of England vs Argentina, a World Cup semi-final steeped in bad blood: Maradona’s Hand of God, Beckham’s red card, the Falklands — every England-Argentina match carries the weight of decades of grudge. The Athletic previews the latest chapter. (The Athletic)

Video of the day: Does Anyone Know the Real Mick Jagger? He’s Not So Sure

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 

The Most Valuable Brands in the World

Source: On Deck

 

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~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

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Overvalued, Bubble, or Revolution?

 

Perhaps the question I hear asked most often is: “Are we in a bubble? What’s happening with this artificial intelligence thingie?”

I picked my favorite charts that shed light on this issue. All of these were pulled from my Q3 Review & Update quarterly call, which I do for RWM clients.

We have heard a lot of kvetching (sorry about using technical jargon) about the S&P’s big five, mag seven, and top ten. The top five is ~27% of the index, about where we were in the late ’60s and early ’70s. What sent concentration down over the following 30 years wasn’t a market crash; it was primarily the lack of Anti-Trust enforcement.1

Giant conglomerates were not in favor; M&A was cautiously watched. Most vertically integrated industries were carefully monitored; anywhere the consumer was disadvantaged, they were often not allowed to proceed. You simply could not just merge or buy whoever you wanted.

Concentration really began to tick up after a very significant regime change in M&A and antitrust enforcement in the late ’80s and early ’90s. Fast forward to what’s taken place over the past 15 years — it’s really gone postal.


Chart via Deutsche Bank Research Institute

 

I showed a table last year on the Magnificent Seven: 846 mergers have taken place over the past 15 years (as of a year ago!). In an era of traditional antitrust enforcement, we simply wouldn’t have 7 companies become the giant conglomerates that dominate everything today. Instead, these companies would be several hundred competitive firms; and if you believe what Adam Smith had to say, this would lead to better services at lower prices. The Mag 7 are probably 100 standalone companies, many of which would be S&P 500 companies in their own right.2

So while the bears are focused on concentration, they are ignoring the history of how these companies came together. The concentration meme mistakes these 300 companies for just 7 giant vertically integrated firms ….

~~~

Let’s see how market concentration around the world looks. This chart is quite telling.

 

Many of the world’s largest and/or most advanced economies have a concentration of their top 10 companies at 60, 70, 80% — Canada, France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea. Yes, equity market concentration is something we should all pay attention to — but the US is on the relatively low end of the scale compared to the rest of the world.3

~~~

 

Perhaps the most interesting answer to the question “Are we in a bubble?” is the four biggest companies heading into the dot-com peak, and today.

Intel and Microsoft (before they entered the Dow) sported P/E ratios of 47 and 60, respectively. Oracle was at 120, Cisco, 130.

Today, Microsoft is under 20. Wait — you’re telling me that heading into the dot-com implosion, Microsoft was 3X as expensive as it is today? Apple at 33, pricey, but they are not only one of the biggest companies in the world, but one of the most profitable. Google at 25. Nvidia at 18? That sounds reasonable.

Ed Yardeni reminds us that the forward P/E of the technology sector today is 22; for the entire S&P 500, it is 20.4. In 2000, we were looking at 55 and 25 — Technology was 2X as expensive as it is now.

~~~

Home in on Nvidia, the poster child for the claim of an artificial intelligence bubble. It has grown into its P/E price. It now sports the same P/E ratio it did way back in 2019 — before the pandemic, before the CARES Act, before the semiconductor bill, before ChatGPT became a household name. It’s back to the same P/E ratio. That is an astonishing data point I find hard to ignore.

Its earnings have caught up to its price — and, more precisely, it’s given up a trillion dollars in market cap this year, the price has become a whole lot more rational relative to earnings. Again, when you see a chart like this, does it scream bubble to you?

~~~

Finally, I want to share an astonishing chart via the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. It shows how much the US has been spending on private AI investment relative to the rest of the world. This is a red flag for the people hyper-focused on a bubble.

The more accurate way to think about it (IMO) is that every new technology comes with massive overinvestment and an over-allocation of capital toward that technology.  This turns out not to be a bad thing (unless it’s your capital).

We built thousands of miles of railroad track in the 1800s, and most of those rail companies went bankrupt. The survivors bought up all that railway and connected those tracks into a giant coast-to-coast network for pennies on the dollar. Then came the Telegraph companies; into the 20th century, you had Telephone, Radio, Oil, Automobiles, Television, Aviation, Semiconductors, Computers, etc.

My favorite example is bandwidth and fiber. Global Crossing and Metromedia Fiber laid 1000s of miles of dark fiber for thousands of dollars per mile — then went bankrupt. The telecos and cable cos bought it up for pennies per mile. If that did not happen, YouTube, Facebook, Netflix, Instagram, and all the rest of the bandwidth-intensive firms would not be free or even reasonable.

Would you subscribe to Netflix or Disney+ if they were $400 per month? Without those cheap, fat pipes, those services would not exist. Somebody had to spend billions to build them and then go belly up…

Misallocation of capital is ultimately a positive. My friend Dan Gross wrote a book called Pop: Why Bubbles Are Great for the Economy — this chart could come right out of his book. Look at US investment in AI: it’s 20 times greater than China’s, which in turn is more than double the UK’s, or Canada’s, or France’s.

There’s a reason the US is the leader in this space: so much money is sloshing around, and that money is finding its way to investments like AI. Is there overinvestment in this space? Probably. There is endless amounts of capital. Go to any of the wealthier areas of the country — the Hamptons, Palm Beach, Newport, Nantucket — and it’s astonishing how much money is out there. Some of it buys beach houses, but a lot of it gets misinvested.

~~~

Does that mean this is a bubble? Does that mean AI is going to put everybody out of work?  Does that mean this is a disaster?

Historically, probably not. Most of the data I see does not say we are in the midst of a bubble remotely like 1999-2000.

That doesn’t mean capital won’t get misallocated, and it doesn’t mean this can’t become a bubble.  I can promise you it DOES NOT mean that this bull marekt will not end one day. But so far, so good.

 

 

 

Previously:
The Magnificent 493 (August 12, 2025)

Stocks, Bubbles & Market Myths (January 16, 2026)

Rational Exuberance? (November 24, 2025)

A Short History of Bubbles (October 24, 2025)

 

 

 

 

 

FOOTNOTES

1. Some of the lower prices and lower concentration seem to be related to both A) De-Conglomerization, and B) higher inflation post 1073 Arab Oil Embargo.

2. Facebook would have to compete not just with TikTok, but with Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, Reels, Threads, etc. Google may have started out as search, but its leveraged that into dominant positions in enterprise software, Storage, Google Drive, YouTube, Google Cloud, Chrome, Android, Google Play, Google Maps, Gemini AI, Nest, Motorola, Waymo, Wiz, etc.

The same is true for Amazon — which includes streaming Amazon Prime, mega firm Amazon Web Services,  as a giant standalone entity.

Look at Apple: while the phone is a big part of their revenue, Apple Services alone would be an S&P 500 company. The earbuds, Beats, and the rest of their audio business would be its own standalone company. This is to say nothing of Microsoft, which owns so much stuff it’s almost impossible to keep up.

Google bought YouTube ~20 years ago in 2006 for the then-outrageous price of $1.65 billion. On its own, YouTube would be one of the biggest companies in the S&P 500.

3. The caveat here is that the US population is less than 5% of the global population, and yet we’re 25% of world GDP and 50% of world market cap. Perhaps other countries don’t have room for so many companies, and only their big winners show up. I can’t fully explain it — I can just point out that if this is a problem in the US, it’s a much bigger problem in the rest of the world.

 

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning reads:

• Wall Street Traders Are Having Their Best Year Ever: JPMorgan, Goldman and other big banks are raking in trading revenue this year as “the market is clearly extremely risk-on.” (Wall Street Journal)

Robotaxi Riders Are Falling Asleep, Sparking Frantic 911 Calls: Passengers are also spilling food, getting sick and, in at least two instances, giving birth in self-driving vehicles. (Bloomberg free) see also Popular Cars to Avoid and What to Buy Instead: Skip high-selling models with low scores or reliability ratings and consider these winners instead. Consumer Reports’ annual name-and-shame list — the best-selling models that score poorly on reliability, safety, or owner satisfaction, plus what to buy instead. (Consumer Reports)

From spicy claypot chicken to ‘digitally enabled technology infrastructure player’: Back in 2017, a tiny US-listed drinks company called Long Island Iced Tea suddenly announced that it would henceforth be known as Long Blockchain Company and promptly jumped as much as 500 per cent.  It ended pretty much as you’d expect. Even the Nasdaq was shamed into taking action, delisting the company from its exchange. The SEC then got involved, and today the company is no more. Did doubt for even a minute t hat this would end in any other way?! (Financial Times)

This factory was severely short on workers. Then it offered flexible work. With U.S. manufacturers struggling to staff up, a handful are opening the doors to people who may not be seeking a traditional career in the industry or even a 40-hour workweek. (NPR)

Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster: A shockingly inefficient trillion-dollar project. (The Atlantic)

The Misinformation Gap: The Psychologist Who Defined the Dunning-Kruger Effect Says You’re Probably Using It Wrong: Dunning, co-discoverer of the Dunning-Kruger effect, investigates the misinformation gap built into our brains: We don’t know what we don’t know. (ZME Science) see also Too Many Books? Mendel Uminer faced a crisis when his landlord objected to the 10,000 volumes in his New York studio apartment. (New York Times)

The solarisation of Pakistan’s energy economy: Distributed solar is driving up electricity demand, bringing huge social and economic benefits. (Ember)

What are the cool kids doing in NYC this summer? Ditching their phones. Pervasive techno-pessimism has sparked a burgeoning analog movement and offline “Summer of Ludd” festival. (Washington Post)

Why Is Digital Freedom Making Us Exhausted and Sad? From “The Burnout Society” to “The Tonality of Thought,” tech philosopher Byung-Chul Han’s ultra-short books reveal why online liberation has felt more like voluntary captivity. (The New Atlantis) see also A Philosopher’s One-Word Theory to Explain Why the World Feels So Weird: Once you learn what the “uni-context” is, you won’t stop seeing it everywhere. (Derek Thompson)

How coach-on-pitch Messi undid England’s tactics on the fly: As England conceded control of the World Cup semi-final because of their own fatigue and Thomas Tuchel’s in-game changes, veteran Messi strolled authoritatively and effectively served as Argentina’s on-field coach. So how did Messi find and exploit England’s weaknesses to deliver victory for Argentina in Atlanta? (BBC)

Video of the day: Why Twitter became such a disaster

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 

Retail Resilience Defies Doomsayers

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

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