The Big Picture

10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

Kevin Warsh Is Trump’s Man—and His Own. How He Will Reshape the Fed. Kevin Warsh is President Trump’s nominee for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Trump says in a social-media post. (Barron’s) see also A Bad Heir Day at the Fed: No, Kevin Warsh isn’t qualified. (Paul Krugman)

What happens after the Age of the Dollar ends? International financial anarchy. A lot of people have this vague idea that the world’s finances are based on the U.S. dollar, but they don’t really know exactly what that means, and they don’t know what it would mean for the dollar to lose that status. In fact, people are right to be a little confused, because there are basically a few different ways that the dollar matters to the international financial system. (Noahpinion)

Why public expectations of inflation matter: Think of my analysis here regarding the wisdom of the crowds as aggregating the FT’s findings. Chart 1 explores this further. It plots actual inflation together with the one-year forecast of the BoE and one-year public expectations of inflation since 2006. The public has over-predicted actual inflation by an annual average of only 0.1 percentage points by 0.5 percentage points in terms of the median (although they wildly miss major turning points). (LSE Business Review)

How high can prices in the Hamptons go? Median prices hit record $2.3M, fueled by Wall Street money and low inventory. (The Real Deal)

Millions in bets ride on what Trump will say, do or invade next: More than $200 million is staked on political or government actions on Polymarket and Kalshi, raising concerns about insider trading from officials in the know. (Washington Post) see also When All Bets Are Off, All Bets Are On: Investors hate uncertainty. Speculators love it. (Wall Street Journal)

‘I just don’t have a good feeling about this’: Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone’s now looking at the wrong alarm. (Fortune)

‘Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company: $500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips. (Wall Street Journal)

Jeffrey Epstein files: don’t be fooled. Millions of files are still unreleased. Federal prosecutors had identified 6 million files that were ‘potentially responsive’ to the law, but only released 3.5. Why? (The Guardian)

The Midseason Steal Who Turned Into a Super Bowl Triple Threat: No one in the NFL has broken off more huge scoring plays than Seattle Seahawks’ Rashid Shaheed, the rare trade deadline acquisition who can return kicks, take handoffs, and catch bombs through the air. (Wall Street Journal)

When Bruce Springsteen (Hank Azaria) Met Michael Stipe (Michael Shannon): Both actors pay homage to rock ’n’ roll greats onstage. But their relationships to their muses — and how they perform their songs — are very different. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

Kevin Warsh’s assessment of inflation during his Fed governorship (2006-2011)

Source: LinkedIn

 

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10 Sunday Morning Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Trump’s Year of Anarchy: The Unconstrained Presidency and the End of American Primacy. (Foreign Affairs)

The Crypto CEO Who’s Become Enemy No. 1 on Wall Street: Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong is clashing with Jamie Dimon and other bank stewards over the future of finance. (Wall Street Journal)

Injury to Buildings and Vegetables: The ability to impose pollution on others is another aspect of class rule. (N+1)

US Has Investigated Claims That WhatsApp Chats Aren’t Private: US law enforcement has been investigating allegations by former Meta Platforms Inc. contractors that Meta personnel can access WhatsApp messages, despite the company’s statements that the chat service is private and encrypted, according to interviews and an agent’s report seen by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg)

Trapped in the hell of social comparison: A hypothesis about why Americans are unhappy with their economy. (Noahpinion)

On the architecture of unreality: Bari Weiss is not a journalist. She is a propagandist with a journalist’s title. She has an agenda. She has interests. And they align with the interests of those who think keeping the current regime in charge of our national affairs is theirs. It is why she brings the reactionary fraud Niall Ferguson to CBS: to lend the appearance of intellectual heft to what is, in fact, a project of epistemological sabotage. (Notes from the Circus) see also The commenters won: We are ruled, as it turned out, not only by ghouls, fascists, sociopaths, salesmen, influencers, mediocrities, and abusers, but by something stranger and potentially worse: Gawker commenters.  Which Trump administration official is a former Gawker commenter? (Read Max)

The Height of Close-Combat Weaponry Is on This Woman’s Doorstep: In pursuit of illegal immigrants, federal agents are carrying the instruments of war, fine-tuned and perfected for killing at short range. (New York Times)

The Sins on the River Road Cannot Be Erased: How did a tiny industrial hub in Louisiana find itself at the center of America’s culture war? For St. John the Baptist Parish, the history is much deeper—and the costs of one age are stacked on the costs of another. (The Ringer)

Police Who Once Backed ICE’s Mission Are Losing Faith in Its Tactics: In Minnesota and places where agents are deployed en masse, law-enforcement leaders are challenging whether they are adhering to the stated mission. ICE says operations are lawful and targeted. (Wall Street Journal) see also Police and ICE Agents Are on a Collision Course: After another fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis, the rift between local police and federal agents is becoming a rupture. (The Atlantic)

Forgotten Star Dorothy Stratten Almost Lived the Hollywood Fairy Tale. It Ended as a Horror Story. Peter Bogdanovich, Bob Fosse, and Hugh Hefner all loved her, in their own ways—for better and worse. This reexamination of Stratten’s life, rape, and murder casts a new light on the angel who was a centerfold. (Vanity Fair)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

Average 50-something American is worth $1.4 million; Average 20-something $127,730

Source: Empower

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MiB: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO

 

 

This week, I speak with Kate Burke, chief executive officer of Allspring Global Investments and director on the Board of Directors at Allspring Global Investments. The firm manages over $635 billion dollars primarily in fixed income (and equity) assets for institutions. About two-thirds of Allspring’s $635 billion is on its fixed income platform, which includes their liquidity (money market) business; equity is about 20% of the assets.

We discuss her career at AllianceBernstein, including the transition from Chief Talent Officer to CEO, and her move to Allspring. We also discuss her asset management philosophy, and the firm’s long term relationship with Wells Fargo, which is its largest client, with a focus on money market, defined benefits, and institutional management business.

A list of her current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Bob Moser, CEO and founder of Prime Group Holdings, a private investor in unique real estate holdings. They created Prime Storage, one of the largest, privately-held self-storage brands in the world, with over 19 million rentable square feet of space and 255 locations across 28 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The firm has acquired over $10 billion in real estate assets.

 

 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form (surprisingly arts & entertainment oriented) weekend reads:

23 Ways You’re Already Living in the Chinese Century: The robotics explosion. The energy revolution. The cultural takeover. It’s everything you wanted for the United States—but done better in China. (Wired)

The Cult of Costco: Its consistency is its superpower. (The Atlantic)

Can Department Stores Ever Be Fun Again? Saks Fifth Avenue’s bankruptcy filing has revived debates about how these once celebrated shopping emporiums can regain their luster. (New York Times)

The Harry Potter Generation Needs to Grow Up: You don’t see this with fiction like “The Lord of the Rings” or “The Chronicles of Narnia.” Sales of those books may rise and fall in response to new film or TV adaptations, but those franchises aren’t bound to a particular generation in the way that Harry Potter is bound to the millennials. (New York Times)

By All Measures: Our problems are too vast, our distance from them too great. How do we navigate our derangement of scale? (Longreads)

Are You Enjoying Our Linguine? How American tourists took over everything. (The Dial)

How Hackers Are Fighting Back Against ICE: ICE has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on surveillance technology to spy on anyone—and potentially everyone—in the United States. It can be hard to imagine how to defend oneself against such an overwhelming force. But a few enterprising hackers have started projects to do counter-surveillance against ICE, and hopefully protect their communities through clever use of technology. (Electronic Frontier Foundation)

There is No Proto-Dragon: The Illusion of Fictional Taxonomy: Ask not what a dragon does, but what a dragon is. (Typebar Magazine)

Defining Moments in TV History You’ve Probably Never Heard About: Many of the most-important events have slipped from our collective memories. But their impacts live on. (Wall Street Journal)

The Search for Alien Artifacts: Is Coming Into Focus From surveys of the pre-Sputnik skies to analysis of interstellar visitors, scientists are rethinking how and where to look for physical traces of alien technology. (Wired)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

GS survey: Half of investors plan to increase exposure to hedge funds

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

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Succession

 

 

So, we announced our succession plan this morning.

My emails and DMs lit up immediately, with all sorts of questions, but mostly asking, “Are you retiring?!?”

No, but I’ll get to that shortly.

The reason we announced this: As a financial planning firm, I wanted all of our clients, partners, employees, and colleagues to see that we practice what we preach. If you want clients to take you seriously when you advise them to think in decades, make estate and business continuity plans, you have to follow your own advice.

From the beginning, when we self-funded our launch and had just five of us, we have been inviting key employees to become partners. We have always done this with our own capital, a bank line of credit, and no outside investors. By the end of our first decade, we had 20 partners. In 2024, there were 26 partners. This year, we grew to 29 partners.

Our goal is to be the best employee-owned advisory shop in the country.

As for my daily routine, nothing has changed. I still hold the roles of Chairman and Chief Investment Officer. My daily activities are essentially the same. I am still in the office the same number of times a week; I am still doing my pods at Bloomberg, still blogging, speaking at conferences, and writing more books.

What is going to change? More of our RWM rockstars are now employee-owners, with many more expected to become owners over the next decade.

Maybe I’ll swap the old Cabrio for a newer model, one with ABS & airbags. I recently found a new timepiece I’d been hunting for a while, and I pulled the trigger on that. And, I added more Munis to my personal portfolio. Aside from that, not much is different…

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For the past 12 years, we have built a firm dedicated to putting clients first. Every day, we share with investors what we truly believe are the best ways to manage their portfolios and financial lives. We do this for free to the general public, and in great specificity and detail for our clients. I have been doing this publicly since the late 1990s, and that will go on for as long as I can cobble together an intelligent sentence.

I am excited about what we have built so far, and I look forward to what this team will accomplish over the next decade!

 

 

Source:
Ritholtz Wealth Management Executes Employee-led Succession Plan to Create Industry’s Most Visible, Dominant “Forever Firm”
BusinessWire, Jan 30, 2026

 

See also:
Inside Ritholtz Wealth Management’s Succession Plan
By Andrew Welsch
Barron’s Jan 30, 2026

Barry Ritholtz sells shares in $7.6bn RIA’s planned succession
By Ian Wenik
CityWire, Jan 30, 2026

Ritholtz Wealth Puts Succession Plan in Place As Co-Founder Barry Ritholtz Nears 65
By Alex Ortolani
Wealth Management, January 30, 2026

 

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

The average 50-something American is now worth $1.4 million: Want to get rich? Get old. That’s what the data tells us about net worth in America. The average 50-something American has a net worth of $1.4 million, according to a report from Empower, the financial services firm. The average 60-something is worth $1.6 million. By contrast, the average 20-something is worth a mere $127,730. (USA Today)

America’s own goal: Americans pay almost entirely for Trump’s tariffs: Contrary to US government rhetoric, the cost of US import tariffs are not borne by foreign exporters. Instead, they hit the American economy itself. Importers and consumers in the US bear 96 percent of the tariff burden. (Kiel Institute) see also TACO Tracking: Trump Carries Out Just One in Four Tariff Threats: Financial markets and C-suite executives have mostly shrugged off Trump’s latest warnings involving Iran’s trading partners, Greenland’s supporters, Canada and South Korea, seeing them as merely words intended to gain leverage or change behavior — nothing he’d actually carry out. (Bloomberg)

How a BlackRock Loss Reignited Worries About What Is Hiding in Private Credit: Fund had marked investments as full-valued as recently as November, before disclosing a 19% decline last week. (Wall Street Journal)

Who’s been buying all the gold? “Some will argue that global central banks are moving their reserves away from dollars and into gold, and this is a better measure of debasement than the bond market.” (Financial Times)

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Despite Trump’s Tariffs: The monthly trade deficit and imports rebounded in November after shrinking significantly in prior months, new data show. (New York Times)

Anthropic Is at War With Itself: The AI company shouting about AI’s dangers can’t quite bring itself to slow down. (The Atlantic)

The World Is Drowning in Tourists. Who Should Pay the Price? I’m the problem, it’s me. Last summer a French tabloid sting operation uncovered that Americans (or at least journalists posing as Americans) were being charged up to 50% more than Parisians in some of the city’s most touristy cafes. (Bloomberg)

How popular is Donald Trump? Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman. (Silver Bulletin)

Yes, one image from space can change humanity’s perspective: Our view of the world, the Universe, and ourselves can change with just one glimpse of what’s out there. It’s happened many times before. (Starts With a Bang)

Michael J. Fox and Harrison Ford on Shrinking, Parkinson’s, and Donald Trump: Following his first TV role in five years, Fox hopes to meet with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about funding research for the incurable brain disease. But as he exclusively tells VF, the current administration “seems that they’re involved in other things that have less impact on peoples’ lives.” (Vanity Fair)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

YouTube leads all media, but legacy studios saw a live sports boost in Nielsen’s latest snapshot of TV distributors

Source: The Hollywood Reporter

 

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At The Money: Building an ETF



 

 

At The Money: Building an ETF with Wes Gray, Alpha Architect (January 28, 2026)

Have you ever had a great investment strategy and thought to yourself, “Hey, this is really good! It should be an ETF!” It is much easier than it used to be to create a strategy and put it into an ETF wrapper.

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Wes Gray is founder and CEO of ETF architect. He helps managers turn strategies into ETFs by providing turnkey, white label platforms to handle all of the complex and expensive office operations.

For more info, see:

Professional website

Masters in Business

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

Twitter

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Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Mutual funds, trusts, and ETFs. Have you ever wondered how these are put together? Are you an analyst, strategist, or fund manager that has a really good idea? Have you thought about launching a fund to employ that idea? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re going to discuss how to build your own exchange-traded fund or ETF.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio. Let’s bring in Wes Gray of ETF architect. He helps managers turn strategies into ETFs by providing turnkey white label platforms that handle. Legal compliance operations, portfolio management, allowing sponsors to focus on the idea and distribution, and Wes also runs the Alpha Architect Shop as well.

Full disclosure, Wes Gray and ETF architect are helping my firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management launch a new ETF later this year.

Barry Ritholtz: So Wes, let’s start with the basics. If I’m someone with a novel strategy and a good idea for a ticker, what are the elements that determine whether or not this ETF launches or whether it just dies on the vine?

Wes Gray: It’s gonna come down to low fees, capital and passion in ETF market, as you know, you gotta have low fees for the most part, or people aren’t gonna buy your product. And low fees means you also gotta have a lot of capital to back this thing. ’cause you gotta be around for at least three to five years to tell your story and then you gotta have the passion.

You’re in a market competing with monopolies like BlackRock and Vanguard. So you gotta be someone like a Perth Toll that we talked about previously where you just have to go knock on doors and tell people why your product and your story is so great.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m curious as to the timeline from the original conception to Trading Day.

What’s a realistic timeline and where are the common bottlenecks?

Wes Gray: We generally tell folks, four months, you sign the letter of intent and you’re ready to whoop it on. We can get this thing out the door in plus or minus four months. Obviously that could go out to four years, depending on your, your own internal issues.

But we’ve got this thing, so checklist and automated. At this point, if you want to launch in four months for like a relatively straightforward ETF, that’s gonna be possible.

Barry Ritholtz: Four months seems really short, but I guess I’m imagining how long it takes to accumulate enough seed capital launch. How much money under management do you need to launch an ETF? How does that get structured? What’s the usual launch dollar amount?

Wes Gray: This is a moving target. And let’s say four or five years ago we would’ve said, Hey, 5 million minimum. Now we tell people 25 million and I’m about to probably move it up to 50 million. And, really it’s, it’s not because of the operating cost of the ETF, it’s to convey credibility to the marketplace.

We, need, like people just, everyone kind of knows like, yeah, where’s your break even? You know, ’cause I want you to be in business three to five years from now, and usually that break even in people’s minds is 25 to 50 mil. High barrier to entry just on that.

Now, how do you seed these things?

Well, there’s basically two methods. You either seed with cash. So you launch the ETF and people go open up their Schwab account and click the button and you know, pay cash to buy your ETF. Or you can seed it with property where there, it’s a little bit convoluted, but there’s this thing called Section 351 where you can actually contribute property tax free to seed the ETF.

So basically, cash or property is the two methods you can use.

Barry Ritholtz: And I’m assuming property is usually individual stocks or bonds. Is that right?

Wes Gray: You got it. So, so if you have a portfolio of securities, public securities that naturally fit in the CTF, you can contribute those tax-free. And then that, that property serves as initial seed for essentially the launch of the ETF.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned break even. Take me into the minutia of what the backend of this looks like – legal, audit, administration, listing distribution, marketing. What are the big costs that any ETF manager has run? Where do people kind of make mistakes with these?

Wes Gray: I’ll kind of reverse the, the question and, and let me tell you what we’ve done, the cost and what you have to do, because what you’re asking about is a total dumpster fire behind the scenes, but essentially for our platform is you show up with the spreadsheet, tell us what to do. And you go market and distribute this thing, comma compliantly. ’cause we have oversight responsibilities. That’s your two primary jobs.

We’re gonna deal with all the dumpster fire behind the scenes and the generic cost of doing this to launch an ETF, again, all sandbag for a generic ETF, just with easy numbers. You’re looking at a 50k startup, soup to nuts. Which is not the bad news.

The bad news is the ongoing. Cost to deal with all the aspects you just talked about, and you know, it’s plus or minus, but you’re looking around 200K a year. What the heck does that mean as a business, uh, setup? Well, it, you know, if you charge 1%, your breakeven is 20 million.

If you charge 20 basis points, which is a much, you know, much more marketable, your breakeven is a hundred million. And then everything in between. So, so obviously your breakeven depends on your fee, but you’re looking at 200 k burn a year on average.

Barry Ritholtz:  Let’s say someone comes to you with a systematic strategy. How do they decide whether or not this is based on an index and running it fairly statically versus a more active ETF that’s run more dynamically.

Wes Gray: This advice has also changed over time. We’re we’re, in the old days, we would say, Hey, index active, there’s a bigger trade off there now.

It’s almost always the case. Just go active. Even if your strategy is a hundred percent systematic, why is that? Well, there’s just low overhead cost. I don’t have to pay for a third party index agent. I don’t gotta pay for third party service providers. And, and I also have a little bit more flexibility at the margin.

So for example, let’s say I’m on an index versus an active, and I’m doing the exact same strategy, but we know this week there’s gonna be three Fed meetings and. You know, the world’s gonna blow up. I might not wanna rebalance this week, I’ll just punt to next week. That’s easy in an active strategy, in an index strategy that’s possible — but the paperwork trail and the compliance to be able to facilitate, that’s essentially a nightmare.

Which means most index funds just follow the book no matter what, on unlike little minutiae decisions like this. We recommend active at the margin.

Barry Ritholtz: You must see a ton of different strategies. What do you see that really. Shouldn’t be put into an ETF. What, what kind of strategy, even if a manager is passionate and excited about the idea, what, what are the sort of red flags that, “Hey, you don’t want this in an ETF?”

Wes Gray: I don’t know if I’m weird or just old school or conservative, but, but if I’m not gonna recommend this to my parents or my, my grandma. Why we have this in an ETF where anyone with a Schwab account can click the button and have a party, right?

What does that mean? Things like double levered, triple levered, whatevers, uh, a lot of these gimmicky products that are extremely expensive and they have tons of embedded costs via like swaps and a lot of other things that aren’t transparent. I can’t stand those products personally.

Does that mean that people won’t do ’em? Well, of course not. If you can sell out to people that are gonna pay 1% for your stupid idea, great. But I’m not a big fan of having those products in the ETF marketplace.

Barry Ritholtz: You’re not a big fan of the inverse three x levered Bitcoin.ETFI?

Wes Gray: No, I’m not a fan. And again, maybe I’m just a funny duddy and I need to move on in the world, but I’m just kinda, old school, I like, you know, low fees, transparent, tax efficient things that people can understand, uh, that presumably add value, uh, in the long game.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about, uh, some of the block and tackling once an ETF is created and launched, how, how do you think about. What I think about as someone who was on a trading desk as good market behavior, meaning tight spreads, reasonable liquidity, especially if the ETF is holding some assets that are perhaps a little less liquid than than average.

Wes Gray: That’s a great question and, and it creates a lot of confusion in the marketplace.

There are, there’s basically two types of ETFs, one we’ll call liquidity diamonds. These are ETFs that everyone knows, right – like SPY or Triple Q – where when you go and transact in those ETFs, it’s very likely that you’re actually trading shares with someone else who actually owns those ETF shares. That’s rare. Right, because it’s just such a huge market.

The other set of ETFs, which is 99.99% of ’em is normal ETFs, where when you go access the marketplace, you’re accessing what they call primary liquidity, which means you’re asking a market maker to give you a bid ask spread.

So the vast majority of that bid ask spread. Is simple to understand. What would it cost you as a trader to acquire or dispose of that basket of securities? For example, if I’m trading the triple levered Zimbabwe Bitcoin swaps, well, my bid ask spread might be 10%. Why? Where if I’m trading a basket that’s s and p 500 stocks, even though the ETF maybe never trade, but once a year.

We could trade a billion dollars of that ETF with a couple basis points of impact. So it just depends on the underlying basket liquidity.

Barry Ritholtz: You may notice I didn’t ask an obvious question, “Hey, do you go ETF structure or not?” I think we all understand the advantages of this structure — intraday liquidity, no phantom capital gains taxes.

What might send us in a different direction, an SMA, a mutual fund to trust when is an ETF really not the right structure.

Wes Gray: Another great question. So ETFs, and unfortunately we run ETF architects, so everything should be at an ETF, of course. Right? But you know, let, let’s be honest here, the big disadvantages of the ETF structure are transparency.

And you cannot close an ETF. So if we have a strategy where transparency is just not, you know, gonna play favorably for my shareholders, ’cause I, I don’t wanna expose this to the world every single day, then obviously you can’t do an ETF for all intents and purposes. The other one is capital constraints.

So let’s say we’re trading the microcap strategy and penny stocks, where the maximum amount of capital that can go in there is called 50 a hundred mil. Beyond that I’m gonna start blowing the whole concept up. You cannot stop or close an ETF, whereas an SMA or mutual fund, obviously they, they have tools in which you can actually capacity constrained, uh, the capital you take on.

Barry Ritholtz: We have noticed just a tremendous amount of flows are going to the big three – they go to BlackRock, they go to Vanguard, they go to State Street, and broad passive indexes have dominated a lot of the flows. The exception has been these kind of new, clever, unusual, active funds that occasionally catch people’s fancy.

If you’re thinking about creating an ETF, what sort of space should you really be looking in? What sort of strategy is the best ETF alternative to the core of a lot of people’s portfolios, the big indexes.

Wes Gray: I would basically focus on things that Vanguard or iShares can’t do well, which is you can usually gonna be very boutique, very niche strategies where it takes some special expertise to put those portfolios together and or you can’t jam a trillion dollars into the strategy.

Basically be good at being a boutique, ’cause you’re never gonna beat Vanguard at delivering scale trillion dollar market beta. That’s insanity.

Anytime you have a strategy that, that Vanguard is not offering because it’s either really complex, really differentiated, hard to explain, hard to build, hard to manufacturer, or there’s just not massive scalability, that’s where you’d wanna focus.

If you can put a trillion dollars in your strategy without any breaks, it’s probably not gonna work,  because Vanguard’s already doing it and we don’t wanna compete with the monopoly.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, if you’re an analyst or strategist, or even fund manager, and you have a unique idea that you think will do well in the market as well, as well in the marketplace, you think others are willing to pay for it with their capital, consider launching your own ETF. You need about $25 million in assets and a cost of about a quarter million dollars annually, but the upside are potentially hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in client assets.

I’m Barry Ritholtz and this is Bloomberg’s at the Money.

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Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

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10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads:

Will Danoff, Fidelity Contrafund’s Legendary Manager Keeps Beating the Market. Now He’s Getting Closer to Passing On the Reins. The legendary manager has taken on two co-managers to help him run the mammoth fund. Just don’t use the word “retirement.” (Barron’s).

The Next Step on the Bond Ladder: ETFs New funds offer income from bond ladders inside an ETF. Here are the pros and cons for investors. (Morningstar)

Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance. The dollar’s dominance was built on the foundation of America’s many strengths. But like termites eating away at a house’s woodwork, Trump’s dysfunctional policies are eating away at its support and rendering the US currency acutely vulnerable to future shocks. (Financial Times)

Management Fees as the Anti-Alpha: What’s a management fee? Why are investors using this contractually fixed fee in their endeavor to seek market alpha? (Cash and Carried)

Stung by Trump, America’s Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China: Some U.S. allies are weighing closer ties to Beijing as they seek alternative markets (Wall Street Journal) see also Canadians Are Boycotting US Ski Slopes: Travelers from Canada, long the biggest source of international visitors to the US, have pushed back against the president’s imperialist rhetoric. Winter resorts are feeling the chill. (Businessweek) see also How Canada Became an Enemy: It’s not about trade, it’s about ego. (Paul Krugman)

OpenAI Wants To Create Biometric Social Network To Kill X’s Bot Problem: OpenAI is quietly building a social network and considering using biometric verification like World’s eyeball scanning orb or Apple’s Face ID to ensure its users are people, not bots. (Forbes)

Trump is dealing with an immigration mess of his own making: The killing of Alex Pretti on Saturday, coming just two weeks after the shooting death of Renée Good, represents a crisis moment for Trump’s immigration policy. (Washington Post)

Why Your “Squirrel-Proof” Bird Feeder Never Stood a Chance: You’re handing puzzles to expert problem-solvers. (Slate)

Minnesota Proved MAGA Wrong: The pushback against ICE exposed a series of mistaken assumptions. (The Atlantic)

When the World Turned to Color: The Inside Story of The Beatles on Ed Sullivan: There are moments in history that act as permanent markers of “Before” and “After.” The printing press. The atomic bomb. The moon landing. On a cold Sunday night in February 1964, four young men from Liverpool joined that list. In just 12 minutes and 40 seconds of television, they didn’t just play songs; they redrew the cultural map of the Western world. (Beatles Rewind)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

Europe’s Top Economies in 2026 by Projected GDP
Source: Visual Capitalist

 

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The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

IEEPA Tariffs Update

 

 

Two weeks ago, I wrote “It’s Tariff Week! *.”

The asterisk added the word “Hopefully…

This is likely the week the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the IEEPA tariffs in place since April 2025.” I wrote, getting it totally wrong. It turned out to be (mostly) wishful thinking on my part.

As we continue to await the decision that should overturn the tariffs, let’s update the latest data on the IEEPA tariffs.1 Specifically, I want to focus on tariffs and the impact they have had on the economy.2

~~~

Before diving into the economic details, let’s talk TACO.3

A Bloomberg analysis (dated January 27) found that about 75% of Trump’s tariff threats amount to little or nothing. When people ask if the market is irrational as it ignores tariffs, the proper answer is to point them to the pie chart at top. Markets turn out to be mostly rational, most of the time.4

Whether you see them as bluffs or negotiation tactics, this explains why the market has become so sanguine about tariffs. They understand that most of the time, it‘s just noise; the rest of the time, it’s a 10% market sell-off away from a reversal. This is well documented in WSJ, Barron’s, FT, Bloomberg, etc.

 

What this means — at least so far — is that much of this policy has not been implemented. Despite that, the data below strongly suggests that the Tariffs have had a substantial impact economically.5  U.S. Consumers today face an average effective tariff rate of 18% — the highest since 1934, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

~~~

The Labor market is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy. When jobs are plentiful and wages are rising, consumers feel better about spending and debt. We see evidence of this in labor data, consumer spending, and sentiment.

 

The chart above is from my Q1 2026 client call. It shows a huge post-pandemic surge that began slowing in 2022 to more normal (aka) sustainable levels.

Then came April 2nd, 2025. We expect a substantial tax increase to cause some issues with hiring, but the haphazard, almost random way these were implemented was especially disruptive. We have not added any jobs since Liberation Day. Worse, the NY Times analysis found “Health care and social assistance accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025.”

Overall, the unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025. BLS reported that “Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 8 states, decreased in the District of Columbia, and was essentially unchanged in 42 states.” Estimates suggest unemployment will increase an additional 0.7 – 1.0 percentage points by the end of 2026, lowering total payroll employment by 490,000 by the end of the year.

But for the tariffs, total payroll employment would have been 490,000 higher at the end of 2025.

~~~

Since Tariffs act as a Tax on consumers, let’s consider the impact of these costs on inflation and consumer spending.

Inflation has remained sticky, despite widespread expectations it would continue to drop. Some estimates put the average burden of 2025 tariffs at about 1.3% or an average per household of $1,800 annually.6 The Tax Policy Center estimates were even higher, at $2,100 per household in 2026, with larger percentage impacts on lower-income households.

CBO’s outlook explicitly attributes upward pressure on the cost of goods and production inputs to higher tariffs, which pushed inflation higher in 2025 relative to a no-tariff baseline.

Contrary to what the administration has claimed, American importers and consumers bear nearly all of the costs. According to the Keil Institute, “Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.”

~~~

Beyond New Hires plummeting, consider what else happened after the Liberation Tariffs were announced:

-Except for AI, similar decreases occurred in Corporate Capital Expenditures (imagine what that would look like but for the hyper-scalers).

Consumer Sentiment at its lowest level in 12 years.

-An Economist/YouGov poll found “71% of Americans feel like the country is out of control.”

One thing Trump did get right about tariffs: They bring actual dollars into the federal government coffers. About $200 billion in 2025 alone, estimated to raise about $2.5 trillion between 2026-35. Once tariff revenues reach billions or trillions of dollars, the legal claim that this is not a tax becomes utterly nonsensical.

~~~

SCOTUS Blog recently discussed the modern history of opinion releases. Specifically, how hotly-awaited decisions can be issued on non-argument days. So not only have we NOT gotten the SCOTUS decision on Tariffs, but the regular schedule now shows the next non-argument day on the court’s calendar is Friday, Feb. 20.

There is nothing that prevents the court from releasing a decision whenever, especially considering this was fast-tracked back in September.

racked back in September. I remain hopeful we get a decision before Feb. 20. Perhaps this is only wishful thinking on my part (again).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Previously:
It’s Tariff Week! * (January 12, 2026)

Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax? (March 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 8, 2025)

Which States Could Suffer the Most From Trade War Tariffs? (September 16, 2019)

 

 

 

Sources:
Learning Resources v. Donald J. Trump, POTUS (full docket)

America’s own goal: Americans pay almost entirely for Trump’s tariffs (Kiel, 19.01.2026)

Stung by Trump, America’s Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China (WSJ, Jan 26, 2026)

Consumer Price Index: 2025 in review (January 21, 2026)

CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028 (September 2025)

 

 

 

__________

1. I fully expect the tariffs to be overturned (7-2?), but if they are not, I will consider that the end of whatever shreds of credibility the court has left. I do expect new Ethics rules eventually; a major court revamp is also a (less likely) possibility.

2, No, this is not a full review of the economic impact of Trump’s first year. If there is an appetite for that among clients and readers, I may yet put that together in the coming weeks. TBH, I am kind of surprised Wall Street has not done this yet…

3. TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out

4. See “Maybe Mr. Market Is Rational After All” (August 7, 2020) and “Rational Exuberance?” (November 24, 2025)

5. There have also been substantial geopolitical, strategic, and military impacts of the tariffs. I will leave it to others to address those sorts of things, as they are outside my areas of expertise…

6. BLS’ Consumer Price Index 2025 in review found that “prices for all items rose 2.7%.” The hardest hit are manufactured goods from abroad and commodities (including food and energy).

 

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

My snowbound morning train WFH reads:

Hedge Funds Are Back on Top After a Long ‘Alpha Winter’ Nearly half of investors plan to increase exposure to hedge funds, Goldman Sachs survey finds. (Wall Street Journal)

24-hour trading? Log off: Treasury vigilantes, garbage stocks, JGBs, prediction markets, reverse centaurs, pensions reform and wooden furniture. (FT Alphaville) see also Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions. Welcome to the era of the Polymarket sharp. (New York Times)

New Rules for 401(k) ‘Catch-Up’ Contributions in 2026: Older high-income workers who make contributions beyond the standard amount will have to put that extra money into a Roth 401(k). That may lower their take-home pay. (New York Times)

A better CAPE ratio Statistically speaking. CAPE paints US stock valuations close to one-hundred and fifty year highs. And anyone who insists there’s some iron law that Shiller CAPE must mean-revert to its long-term average anytime soon will also be looking for a more than halving of large-cap US stock prices. (Financial Times)

Yes, you’re paying for Trump’s tariffs, and the price is going up: But verdicts on the tariffs are flowing in from elsewhere, and from the standpoint of American consumers, they’re ugly in the extreme. (Los Angeles Times) see also Is the US economy as hot as Donald Trump thinks? Risks from inflation and a precarious AI boom hover over stellar growth figures. (Financial Times)

Hochul’s Proposal Could Ease New York’s Housing Crisis: The governor’s environmental-review reforms will speed up new construction—if the state legislature cooperates. (City Journal)

Trump officials continue to push lies after fatal shooting of Alex Pretti: Trump and team seem to prioritize vilifying victims of their immigration operations, regardless of conflicting evidence. (The Guardian) see also Was This a Murder Too Far? The execution of Alex Pretti has made even some MAGA loyalists waver. (Paul Krugman) see alsoAlex Pretti: Analysing Footage of Minneapolis CBP Shooting: Twenty-five seconds after Pretti is first sprayed, a shot is heard followed by nine more shots in the span of about six seconds. Additional video from the scene shows Pretti lying motionless on the ground. (bellingcat)

The Best and Worst Airlines of 2025: The winner has spent billions improving its operations—while navigating a corporate shake-up and revising its strategy. (Wall Street Journal)

I Got a Shocking Diagnosis in My Forties. It Explained Everything. I laughed when a clinical psychologist first told me she suspected I had the disorder. Once I understood it better, my life made more sense. (Wall Street Journal)

Feds Create Drone No Fly Zone That Would Stop People Filming ICE: The FAA has altered a no-fly zone designation that was originally created for US military bases to apply to DHS units. (404) see also ICE is forcing a reckoning among America’s religious leaders: Many view this moment as a time for moral clarity and resistance. But not every congregation or denomination is responding in the same way. (Vox)

•  ‘Every time I look at one, I smile!’: how axolotls took over the world: Our passion for these cute-looking salamanders means they are everywhere – except in the wild, where the species is under increasing threat. (The Guardian)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with Zach Buchwald, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Russell Investments. The global investment firm was founded in 1936, and today has ~$370 billion in AUM. Previously, he had a 15-year tenure at BlackRock, where he served as the head of its $2 trillion Institutional Business, leading the company’s Financial Institutions Group and helping establish its Retirement Solutions and Financial Markets Advisory platforms.

 

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?

Source: Polymarket

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