The Big Picture

Transcript: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO, is below.

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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio

Barry Ritholtz: On the latest Masters in Business podcast. My conversation with Kate Burke, she’s CEO of Offspring Global Investments, helping to run about $635 billion in client assets. She has a fascinating background. She’s held all sorts of roles. CEO-COO-CFO, Chief Talent Officer, both at Alliance Bernstein and Offspring. I thought this conversation was fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my interview with Kate Burke of Offspring Global. Kate Burke. Welcome to Bloomberg

Kate Burke: Thank you Barry for having me.

Barry Ritholtz: So we’re gonna get to all of your various titles, many of which I’ve, I’m fascinated by, but I, I have to start with your background. So you study economics at Holy Cross before getting your MBA at Kellogg, what was the career plan? Was it always investing in finance?

Kate Burke: No, I, I had an idea, it might be finance, but I grew up in Rochester, Minnesota. It was a town of 80,000. It’s probably about 120 now. Largely the Mayo Clinic is there and IBM is there. And so there wasn’t a lot of financial acumen that was easily available to me. It just wasn’t a career that really had presented itself. But I was interested in investing. I’m one of five kids. My dad was trying, and mom were trying to save to help us pay for college. And my dad would take, talk me through the decisions he was making, even though he was a self-taught investor as well. And that was really the first interest I had. My first job, one of my first jobs was actually being a teller at a bank because I thought, this is how I’m gonna learn about banking,

Barry Ritholtz: Really, as a teller.

Kate Burke: Didn’t know. That’s how little I knew at the, you know, when I’m 18 years old, there’s very little, you don’t have all the information you have today available. Right. We didn’t have the internet. I had the Wall Street Journal that I could, that my dad got, that I could read. And that was really it. And so I thought, well, how, if I’m gonna get into banking, I might as well go be a teller at a bank. That was obviously not the longer term career path I chose, but it showed an early interest in the, in finance. So,

Barry Ritholtz: So what was it, was it your, your father that sparked the interest in investing or was it school? What, what led you to say, Hey, this is a legitimate career option For me,

Kate Burke: I think it was a little bit of, it started with my, my dad and then economics. I, holy Cross is a liberal arts college. I had originally thought I was going to go to a university with a business program. So I knew I wanted to do business. I fell in love with Holy Cross. Economics was the closest major you could have as a liberal arts uni college. So I pursued that. And then it was my first year outta college, I actually worked for a not-for-profit called Americas Sure. And then was looking to get a job in finance. ’cause I was very close to New York City, but not in New York City. And started networking with people to try to learn more about jobs and finance, because I certainly had friends who had moved into it. But I ultimately went and worked at Tommy Hilfiger instead. And so I went, but that’s where I really got interested in it. ’cause I did investor relations there.

Barry Ritholtz: That was in between college and, and MBA. And, and what was the first job? Right outta business school.

Kate Burke:  It was management consulting at, at Kearney. So that, that exposed me. I call that my finishing school. You know, you go to business school, you liter learn a lot of theory. By doing consulting, you learn a lot of more practical application. And it really, I still leverage a lot of the, the things I learned in consulting about how do you go into something that you don’t fully know, ask a lot of questions, learn how do you structure a problem, and then how do you break down the work to make for forward progress? And being able to do that kind, that critical thinking and that strategic planning, I think has helped me throughout my career. So,

Barry Ritholtz: Kate Burke: So Tommy Hilfiger consulting, Tommy Hilfiger. How did you end up at Alliance Bernstein?

00:04:32 [Speaker Changed] So I was doing, so it was Tommy Hilfiger Business School, then consulting. And at Tommy Hilfiger I did investor relations. So I was the only person in a suit compared to all the other 20 year olds like skateboarding down the hall. So it was very fun in my twenties to be working there. But after business school was doing consulting, we were living, I had gotten married, we were living in Ohio, and we really wanted to be in New York City. I had already lived here once, my husband had not. And when we moved back to New York and I was doing consulting, I just, I couldn’t be in New York City in the hub of finance and not be in finance. And so using, again, networking came across Bernstein Research and said, this is the place I wanna work. I just absolutely loved it.

00:05:25 [Speaker Changed] They, they’ve had a great reputation for, for decades. You’ve had a number of roles there. Everything from, you know, across your career. Chief operating officer, chief financial Officer. Tell us about Chief Talent Officer. What, what does that involve?

00:05:41 [Speaker Changed] So, chief Talent Officer, I, I had moved out of sales and sales management into the head of Human Capital with, which is head of hr, human Resources. And as part of that, your role as Chief Talent Officer, which an asset manager, when all that you have is your talent, right? Is an incredibly critical job. And what that really is about is how do you create better teams? How do you find talent, nurture talent, build talent? How do you help collaboration across silos in the organization? How do you build performance management systems? All of those things come into to how do you build the best talent? And it was a fantastic role for me. One that I was worried originally about taking, moving from a producer, a sales producer, into a corporate function. I didn’t say yes right away when they offered it to me because I was, I thought of myself, my, my, you know, I thought of myself as a revenue generator and moving into that role was the best decision I made.

00:06:57 Wow. Because it moved me one outta my comfort zone. I was working with a group of people within the talent organization who were deep practitioners of human capital kinds of practices who had studied this. They were passionate about it. And I came in with a business acumen and I had to very quickly learn to work with them and find a way to create value with people who questioned a little bit about why I was their boss. It wasn’t the first time that it happened to me really. And, and so moved into that role and really embraced it. And I came up with, you know, return on invested capital. I came up with a phrase, return on invested time. So anytime you ask anyone inside the organization to do something, you’re asking them to invest their time so you better have a return on it. And so it stopped us from doing, from chasing things that may be academically interesting or fads, but really focused on the individuals inside Alliance Bernstein and how could we help use their time wisely to develop themselves and to build a great firm.

00:08:10 [Speaker Changed] I, I’m kind of fascinated by the reluctance to go from something that is measured in very specific, can be easily quantified. Here’s how much assets we generated, here’s the revenue that came in off of those as either a producer or managing a producer, chief talent officer where you’re responsible for attracting talent and then retaining talent. It’s a little squishier. How can you tell? And more importantly, how can senior management tell how effectively you’re doing that job?

00:08:41 [Speaker Changed] So there are metrics still. You look at things like your retention promotions, if you have a voluntary or involuntary turnover as ways of having some measurement of it. You also do cultural surveys. So you will ask the employee population a set of questions. There’s firms that do this. So you can compare yourself not only year over year, but also to your peers in the industry to get a sense of, is it, is it a place where talent wants to stay? So retention is probably the number one stat that you have. But the other part is, are you a good partner to the other leaders in the organization? And are you gaining their trust? Are you helping work through their talent issues? The number one lesson I took away is that there are many, many ways to be a successful leader and to build a good team.

00:09:42 But the number one thing that you have to do is you as a leader have to be the chameleon to your team that you should be adjusting your management style to bring out the best of the individual ver and to give them feedback and to help them versus expecting that individual to mirror you. And that was really powerful because I think it creates this opportunity for you to bring together a really diverse group of talent where they have permission to leverage their strengths. And then my goal is always to build scaffolding around them and to ensure that the dy overall dynamic of the team, that you cover the bases of everything you need. And helping leaders see who on their teams were really analytical versus who were more of the culture and people carrier versus who really partnered well with others. And, and do you have that representation on your team so that you can do more to together versus having five people on a team or 10 people on a team who are all carbon copies of themselves, that that tends to lead to more siloed thinking. So it was, it was really fun. And I got to work with really smart, great leaders and managers across the organization to, to learn many of those skills. It,

00:11:04 [Speaker Changed] It sounds like Chief Talent Officer was a natural bridge to chief executive officer.

00:11:11 [Speaker Changed] It, it, yes. I did not think that at the time, but when I reflect on my career, it was the best job for me to have taken and it, for all the reasons I’ve already stated in terms of how you engage with talent and learning how to build teams. But also it gave me the opportunity to have a seat at the table with the rest of the senior leadership team and talk strategy and understand how we were building the business. And it was great training ground. I had been in the role about a year, maybe to maybe two when we had a CEO transition. There’s a lot of pressure on the head of human capital to, to partner with the CEO to make sure they’re successful for sure. And so that gave me the opportunity to work closely with Seth Bernstein, who’s the current CEO of, of Alliance Bernstein. And he is the one who then also afforded me a lot of other opportunities over time to take on other roles because I became a trusted partner to him. Huh,

00:12:18 [Speaker Changed] Really, really interesting. And then how did you end up moving from Alliance Bernstein to Offspring?

00:12:24 [Speaker Changed] I was very happy at Alliance Bernstein. I had, I was the CFO and COO at the time. You, you were there

00:12:31 [Speaker Changed] For almost two decades. Yes. Almost 20 years.

00:12:33 [Speaker Changed] Yes. And, and, and, and, and I said had a number of great roles and they really helped build out who I am as a person and as a, as a leader today and is a great firm. I have a lot of admiration still for everyone who, who works there. So I wasn’t looking, I, I followed the path of having a, a, a headhunter call, of which I first said no, I was not interested in pursuing the, the conversation, not because of anything about all springing, but just because I was happy with where I was. And then he said, well, why don’t you just look into it a little bit, read a little bit, maybe meet with, just meet with some of the people, maybe meet with someone. So a very effective headhunter in that regard. And as that conversation started to unfold, I got really excited about Offspring because I could see all of the potential that was there.

00:13:31 For those of you who like, who don’t know Offspring, and many people still don’t. We’re, our brand is only four years old, but we have 635 billion of assets under Management, 450 of which are fixed income. And nobody knows we’re one of the larger fixed income players out there because it, so there was so much potential and such a rich history of Invest teams. It was a multi boutique model. It was, it’s, it was Wells Fargo asset management that they were selling and had, they had sold, and it was about two years into its transition and there was still a lot of work both to, to do on the transition out of Wells Fargo. So all of the TSA, the getting out of all of the transaction servicing agreements, we were still, they were still in the midst of that. They were thinking about the evolution of the investment platform rebuilding out distribution. And I thought, I’ve done a lot of this so I can be really, I can really create a lot of value by going here and working with such a great team, great leadership team that was already in place and with so much potential that I just got really excited about it.

00:14:48 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really, really fascinating. So before we get to Offspring, let, let’s talk a little bit about AB for a minute. I know a lot of people who, who either work there or used to work there, the firm has evolved over the years. What’s the current relationship with, is there a parent company now? What? Wasn’t there a merger

00:15:10 [Speaker Changed] At Alliance Bernstein?

00:15:11 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. Who, who’s the

00:15:12 [Speaker Changed] Equitable,

00:15:13 [Speaker Changed] Equitable is now, is now, which is really right down the street from them, which is kind of ironic down Seventh Avenue from where the HQ used to be.

00:15:21 [Speaker Changed] So what’s interesting is Equitable is now in Alliance Bernstein’s old offices at 1345 and Alliance Bernstein has actually moved down to Hudson Yards.

00:15:31 [Speaker Changed] Oh. Which is, which is really yeah. A, a a a fascinating place as well. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Kate Burke, CEO of Offspring global Investment, discussing what it’s been like working at both Alliance Bernstein and Offspring Springing Global. I’m Barry Ritholtz, your listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:16:02 I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest today is Kate Burke. She’s CEO of alls springing global. The firm manages or advises on $635 billion in assets. Previously she was C-O-O-C-F-O and head of Human Capital Chief Talent Officer at Alliance Bernstein. So you’ve had very distinct jobs that I think of as so different. Chief operations officer is very different than CFO, which is so different than CEO. How do you shift from one major position to another that it’s a whole nother, like CFO is an entirely different silo than CEO?

00:16:52 [Speaker Changed] Yes. So each one of them teaches you different areas of discipline or focus, but each time I have taken on a new role, I start, I’ve started to establish a little bit of a playbook, which is, you know, people talk about your first 90 days and and there’s truth to that. The number one thing that I do is I go in and very quickly, and this goes back to the story I was telling you about human resources, is I recognize that oftentimes at the table, I’m gonna be the person with the least amount of subject matter expertise on a topic. And rather than try to fake it and act like I have all of the answers, I use a lot of inquiry to ask questions and to, and to peel back the knowledge that they have to share with me and to invite that into the conversation.

00:17:47 And then I have the confidence that the, the other parts of the organization I’ve seen that I’ve been a part of have value to add to that analysis. And it becomes really a conversation about where we’re going so that I’m partnering with the, the people in the, in that discipline to come up with what the strategy and implementation plan is. And what I think I’m good at is I’m good at focus and execution. I say a lot at all springing. There’s no shortage of good ideas. There’s a shortage of great execution because you can get, you know, I have an idea for a podcast. No, I don’t actually, but everybody has ideas, right? Right. It’s how do you get that idea into something that is tangible, that then you make that first step, you make the second step and you get it off the ground and you create the momentum and then the willingness to pivot or change direction based on the measurement of are you making the progress the way you thought and, and constantly learning. So I talk about growth mindset, how do you engage in that? And I think that that’s been what’s allowed me to be able to move into different roles is I appreciate how good the people are that I’m working with.

00:19:05 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. But you also have to be a quick study because, all right, so C-O-O-C-F-O very operationally focused. You led Bernstein private wealth not only for a couple years, but really challenging years right in the middle of the pandemic. That’s a completely different set of skills and, and set of tasks to execute. Tell us a little bit about leading Bernstein’s Private Wealth.

00:19:30 [Speaker Changed] So I do think that I’m a fairly quick study, but I work really hard to be a quick study. I put in a lot of, I put in a lot of time Funny how

00:19:38 [Speaker Changed] That works, isn’t it?

00:19:39 [Speaker Changed] It really does pay off really can help pay off. So, you know, with Bernstein Private Wealth one, it had helped that I’d been at the organization a long time. So I obviously knew the strength of the, the brand of the proprietary nature of how they invest for individuals. I’m actually still a client of theirs, not surprisingly. And I went in and in the end, so one, it’s about how do you, how, what was the Bernstein philosophy about investing for, for wealthy individuals and, and recognizing the strength and the legacy. The, the financial advisors are very proud of that business. And so the number one thing you have to recognize is don’t mess that up. Right? So how do you build on that and, and try to protect that, particularly during challenging times. Two, it is all about the talent. So there’s a consistent theme there that it’s all about the talent.

00:20:39 It was a strong leadership team and my role was to come in and help study our business during a time of cha of a time of challenge. And to do that, you do get very focused on really on, on the client. This, it was a wonderful reminder for me. I had been in sales for a long time, it was my first job back into a client facing role after I’d moved into hr. And I love the clients. And so being able to talk with clients again helps give you a lot of direction about the challenges our advisors are facing. And my role was to be there for our adv, our advisors. They, they give so much of themselves. Every financial advisor, regardless of the firm you’re working at, is investing their time and energy into the success of other people. They need someone to fill that bucket who’s doing that for them. And so my view in that role was, let me help fill that bucket. You’re under so much pressure under duress with your clients and, and, and helping them through challenging times. How can I help support you in that? So,

00:21:53 [Speaker Changed] Huh, really, really interesting. So now, now let’s move forward. You get recruited to Offspring as CEO for people who are not familiar with Offspring. Tell us a little bit about the firm, who the clients are, how, how they’ve managed to accumulate, you know, over $600 billion.

00:22:09 [Speaker Changed] Sure. So Offspring’s history is, is that it was built under Wells Fargo asset management really as a multi boutique model. So Wells Fargo had acquired brands like Montgomery, strong Capital, evergreen, and they had really functioned as, you know, sort of independent investment teams leveraging then the distribution and operations. The distribution was really twofold. And, and this is what we’re growing out, what what we’re grow leveraging to continue to grow, which was one a strengthen retail because Wells Fargo Advisors is our, is our, was our largest, is our largest client still today. And they were very focused on understanding the needs of the advisor community. And then two was an institutional business that was largely in defined benefits and other types of institutional channels. And so tho that history was there, equity is about a third of, of about a fifth probably of the assets. And then we have a liquidity business, a money markets business that is incredibly strong.

00:23:27 And then a fixed income business that’s really two pieces. One, a fixed income platform that has both credit all the way to high yield, sort of the entire curve. So my view is if you need a fixed income strategy in your portfolio, offsprings should be one of them. And then on the other side of it was a very strong brand gallard, which was stable value and really used a lot in defined benefit and contribution programs. And so we had all of those pieces, but they had all operated independent, fairly independently. And one, what’s really important for investment portfolio managers is their autonomy to make investment decisions like that is what we are, what people are buying from them is that the, that the portfolio managers that they believe in and have established the track record still have the autonomy to, to make those choices. And I believe that firmly that is croson, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t talk to each other.

00:24:32 And that you can’t create an investment platform where you’re leveraging the insights internally within all springing to benefit the totality of our clients and the totality of the investment decisions. And so that was one of the first things I started working on with John Branco, our, our head of our CIO and head of investments was we have all of these amazing capabilities through, they’ve historically worked independently, we are now all under the offspring brand. They’re all aligned with the success of Offspring as an organization. Is there something we can do as we evolve the investment platform to create more leverage across these teams? And that’s what, that’s the journey that we’ve been on with the investment teams. Hmm.

00:25:21 [Speaker Changed] Really, really interesting. You, you mentioned the money market group is separate from the fixed income group. I kind of think them a as it,

00:25:29 [Speaker Changed] It, it, we ha we separated out. I agree with you. So when I say we have over 400 billion in assets under advisement in fixed income, I’m including liquidity in that piece. So I do, that is part of the, the curve. But liquidity as is such an, in a strong, independent piece of that asset allocation for us that we often call it out because it, it’s such, it’s been such a powerful and particularly in a higher interest rate environment has had been a very strong source of, of flows and growth for us.

00:25:59 [Speaker Changed] We were, what were we over four, four point a half percent last summer and now we’re back in the high threes, like four point a half per people forget, we spent 25 years pretty much at nothing. Nothing. So four point a half percent wait safe liquid. Wow.

00:26:14 [Speaker Changed] Why would you not, why would you not have it? And you’re seeing what’s interesting is, you know, even with advisors or or with clients, they’ll, they’ll have money in a deposit account earning very low interest. And then when they’re put, they’re trying to figure out how to put it into work. The question of whether or not you wanna put it into equities at the this value, right, these, these valuations right now versus saying no, you can get a stable return off of fixed income. Fixed income was out of favor for a period of Oh, long

00:26:47 [Speaker Changed] A period

00:26:47 [Speaker Changed] Period of time. Period. Yeah. Period. I think we’re back in the age of, of fixed income for, for quite a while now where bonds should really are really well positioned to outperform and really, and our source of income, especially when you think of an aging demographic who’s looking for income, there’s the stability and safety of bonds that PR can provide you with their, those income, that income particularly they’re active, managed. So we can work through some of the unknown challenges of our current economic environment.

00:27:19 [Speaker Changed] It, it’s so interesting as people are gonna be hearing this, it’ll be around the time when lots and lots of bonuses will be hitting people’s personal accounts, which means lots of people are gonna be getting phone calls from their bank saying, Hey, I see there’s a pile of cash here,

00:27:39 [Speaker Changed] How would you like to use it?

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] Right. And I’m al I always say, well half of that’s going to Uncle Sam can, what can you guarantee me that’s safe? And I, and I mean guarantee. And it’s like, well, you know, there are no guarantees. I’m like, all right, it’s, it’s going to, it’s gonna go to the money market fund even if it’s three eight, that’s better than some crazy covered call strategy that may or may not be there for April 15th.

00:28:05 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. So one, it’s a safe, it’s certainly always a safe place in the short term to, to put your liquidity. And then in the longer term, when you think about people’s wealth accumulation over time, in the very beginning it is simply about starting to, to grow wealth accumulating it, you’re gonna be largely in equities and not to get that kind of equity return. And then you start to move into, well now I have to start planning for retirement. So then preservation starts to become more important. You wanna protect those assets and that’s when you see people tend to move more into a more balanced portfolio. Well then they move into retirement and they need income and they want, that’s where fixed income really can be very beneficial or, or di you know, we also have a number of equity income strategies that put off a nice distribution and that’s where you wanna have an advisor or help you understand what is the income stream you need to, to live and pursue the life you want in retirement. And then the last stage is legacy and, and what do you do as a legacy planner and how do you again, go back to that preservation of those assets so that you can, whether it’s your legacy is philanthropic or around your family, you know, our view is we wanna partner with the, the wealth advisor along each parts of their, their client’s journey and know that they can turn to offspring with the right set of public market products that are beneficial to those clients.

00:29:42 [Speaker Changed] So you’re, you’re discussing a lot of relationships it sounds like, with RIAs, registered investment advisors. Tell us a little bit about the relationship you have with RIAs. Are they primarily at Wells Fargo? Are they everywhere? Give us a little bit of insight into how Wells far, how Wellspring operates.

00:30:03 [Speaker Changed] So Offspring has a very strong relationship with the Wells, Wells Fargo advisors still. And, and, and we’ve been able to grow that relationship, even post-separation, which I think people were concerned about whether that continuity would, would continue or would, would that cost some friction? Instead, they’re a tremendous partner and, and we can work with them to help Wells Fargo advisors achieve their agendas with their financial advisors. The same though is true for other intermediaries. Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Raymond James, these are all other intermediary platforms that have some offspring product. We’re looking to continue to place more the, and then we have the RIA channel, which as you know, is going through a tremendous amount of change and an investment. You’re seeing consolidation, you’re seeing aggregators of RIAs out there, you’re seeing ts you know, platforms that are providing a lot of the infrastructure

00:31:02 [Speaker Changed] Turn

00:31:03 [Speaker Changed] Asset management, thank you, that are providing a lot of the infrastructure and technology and operations that advisors need. And we’re able to partner with each part of that ecosystem all the way to the independent RIA who’s hung their shingle and built a great business. So one of the investments we made in the last year was really building out an RIA sales organization, recognizing that it’s similar to intermediary, but as those RIAs are growing and getting more sophisticated, having support of that growth with them and, and being able to help bridge, like this is what other sophisticated, larger aggregators are doing, how can we help partner with you to, to build and protect that business has been a real focus of ours. And, and that’s where we have a number of our remys, our tax managed SMA platform, separately managed account platform that is really, I think, powerful when you’re working with RIAs and, and those individual investors. So,

00:32:08 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about what’s going on with the, the market today. By the time people hear this, it’s 2026, what is going on that’s different now for institutional and wealth clients that perhaps is different than what they were looking at five or 10 years ago?

00:32:28 [Speaker Changed] So I think one of the things we’re focused on right now is there is from the, from the curve perspective, you know, this question of whether we’re entering into stagflation where you’re seeing a lower growth still inflation high in low high interest rates that will be coming down is where do you position yourself along that curve? And rather than have it just be a long duration play, we think that investors really need to be looking at how do they take advantage of both the change in the curve. We expect the, the curve to steepen the long end of the curve to to, to steepen, particularly as central banks are figuring out how to balance the inflation at and lower interest rates to, to try to protect growth. You also have heavy debt servicing loads. So while all of them are perfectly solvent and, and can and of develop company and manage that, they care about those interest costs, it’s a big part of any, any government’s budget. And it’s a growing part. And I think that that changes some of the behavior of the curve in the long run where we would expect that that longer end tail of it to continue to, to go higher. So playing that intermediate part of the curve we think is gonna be really important and you’re gonna want high quality credit driven companies to do that. So credit research is really gonna matter more versus just playing the duration play. Coming

00:34:10 [Speaker Changed] Up, we continue our conversation with Kate Burke, CEO of Offspring global investing, discussing the state of investing markets today. I’m Barry Riol, you’re listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

00:34:37 I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Kate Burke, she’s CEO of all Spring Global investments, helping to manage about $635 billion in client assets. Previously she ran multiple divisions at Alliance Bernstein, including as C-F-O-C-O-O and head of the private wealth group. So when we look at active management in equities, it’s kind of fallen out of favor. They’re not, they don’t help themselves by pretty regularly underperforming half each year. Half of the active fund managers underperform their benchmark and if you go out to five or 10 years, it’s much worse. But we really don’t see the same sort of performance in bonds. It seems that active bond managers really bring a lot of, dare I say, alpha to the table. Yes. Tell us a little bit about the active side of, of bond management at Offspring.

00:35:36 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so at all springing over 90% of our fixed active fixed income outperform on a three, five and 10 year basis. Wow. So active management really matters in fixed income. And I’m happy to go back to why I believe it in equities as well. But, but focusing on fixed income for a moment, I think part of the strength of the all springing platform is the deep credit research that we do. And that means understanding the specific issuances and the companies that are doing it so that you’re making the right choices. And we do run the risk of, and you see a little bit of this in some of the private markets, you know, this question of of credit and, and the strength of the underlying businesses. If we have challenges in the economy, that’s where it comes out. And so making those strong, having a strong view on, on quality credit, we think is really important because it allows you to do two things. One, we talk about income, we think you’re gonna get, most of the return is gonna come out of yield. So searching for that income, being able to harvest that income is really important. And why we like the intermediate part of the curve is the duration play. So still being nimble enough to adjust to a changing rate environment, either led by the central banks or driven by inflation. How do you position yourself along that, that part of the curve to, to be able to capitalize on that return?

00:37:05 [Speaker Changed] What, what are you guys seeing on the private alt side? Private debt, private equity. Private credit. There has been a land rush to that space. I get the sense that offspring has become a little skeptical about that area.

00:37:19 [Speaker Changed] Look, I I private credit is a perfectly good asset class and it, it creates a lot of value, certainly for the economy. It was, it was, it grew out of the need of the banks pulling back on their ability to to to make those loans. But it has gotten to be a crowded space. You have, you have a number of new players that have entered into the private credit market. If you look at future returns, what happens with basic law of supply and demand, you have a lot more people supplying liquidity to that part of the, of the private credit market. Wanting to make those loans means those spreads are likely to come down. They’re gonna be competing origination is really gonna matter in that space. And so I think we’re going to see similar to asset managers, those who are really good at it and those who end up not being as well positioned for it.

00:38:10 So who you, who you own there and who you partner there I think is, is really important. We’re choosing despite many of our similar size peers seeking out either through acquisition of our partnership with private credit firms, I’ll never say never there could be a partnership with someone that creates a really interesting strategy that’s specific for the client. But you’re seeing I think some challenges even with what’s happened so far where people don’t understand the product, they don’t understand the liquidity, they don’t understand the fee structure. And so that’s a lot of time you have to be spending with those advisors, trying to educate them and con and convince them that that’s the right decision to be making versus saying no, buy your sleeve of, of li liquid, you know, the public liquid fixed income products and then buy your sleeve of private credit with whoever you choose. Seems to me to be one of the paths that, that people may pursue. I

00:39:11 [Speaker Changed] I’m always surprised when people talk about not understanding the liquidity. Just go back a couple of years ago to beat credit at, at Blackstone where a bunch of advisors tried to head for the exits before the year end marks happened. Hey, which part of locked up for five years is confusing In year two it’s, you got three see ya in 2029. So

00:39:37 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s, look, it requires a sophisticated investor to understand how you’re laddering into illiquid assets and and what does, does

00:39:45 [Speaker Changed] That mean, not mean sophisticated, right? Seven year lockup is is seven years. Oh, so I get my money back in year two, no seven year lockup. And yet people seem to not really take, take it very seriously.

00:39:59 [Speaker Changed] So that’s why we are staying in the public side. We think liquidity is really important and and provides an important part of your asset allocation. I’m not arguing against cl clients having a piece of alternatives in their portfolio, but understanding the structure of what that alternative’s makeup is, whether it’s private equity, private credit, real estate, understanding those terms, understanding how that access to how and, and your comfort level that in times of illiquidity your asset allocation may be much higher to those asset classes than you originally intended because you’re gonna have to use your liquid assets in a way that you had not originally planned. And that creates the, the danger that an individual investor in particular has in thinking about how they’re adding that into their investment portfolio. And that’s where a really good advisor is going to be helpful. But they are also all in their own education of this now.

00:41:02 And so who each advisor advisors talk about how much they’re needing to learn about private credit, about tax loss management like that, we’re asking more and more out of these advisors. So we think you can still get a really good risk adjusted return by a pretty traditional portfolio in the long run. And if you look at what the s and p 500 has done for the last 30, 40 years, not too shabby. Right? Not too shabby. And if you invest in that in the long run and have enough liquidity to live through the downturns and leave those in place, that has proven to be a winning strategy for a very long time.

00:41:39 [Speaker Changed] And, and we’re just, if you look at rolling 15 year periods, we just finished one of the best 15 year periods Yes. In history. People forget what it’s like when everything hits the fan and liquidity is really valuable. Yeah.

00:41:54 [Speaker Changed] I’m not, I’m just not sure what we’re trying to solve for, for the client in saying that they need to have a significant allocation.

00:42:01 [Speaker Changed] So you’re not in the 30, 40, 50% illiquid alts camp at all? No,

00:42:06 [Speaker Changed] Definitely, definitely not personally and definitely not what I would be recommending others to do. Unless you’re at the really ultra high net worth part of the curve where you have plenty of liquidity in that 30% because you just have so much in that account overall. The

00:42:22 [Speaker Changed] 70% is such a big number

00:42:23 [Speaker Changed] Because Right. So that, but, but for many people that’s not their reality. Right. And so I think we have to be appropriately cautious. We want more people investing for their future. I do think it’s an incredible, you know, that generating, creating wealth for yourself, you know, outside of my Seth Bernstein used to say this outside of your, your, your doctor, your financial advisor is probably the next most important person in your overall wellbeing outside of obviously your family. Like in terms of the professional advice that you’re getting. And, and, and I think that that’s really important to understand that indi there’s so many different individuals. That’s why I believe in customization at scale in the long run is that every individual, you know, target dates work for retirement when you have similar people in collected together to make a target date decision. But, but the diversification is not just the year you’re planning on retiring, it’s, well, what are the assets you have? How big is your family? What are your other needs that you need to be planning for? So how do you start to create customized solutions for the individual investor and help the financial advisor create those individual solutions at scale, I think is gonna be the next wave in wealth management.

00:43:43 [Speaker Changed] So you’re, what I’m hearing is if you’re an aspirational investor, if you’re a high net worth investor, if you’re a family office or if you’re an institution endowment foundation, those are very distinct needs and you should have very distinct solutions to your problems. Correct. Hmm. Really, really interesting. I only have you for a few more minutes, I want to get to some other questions before we run out of time. I love your quote, what does it mean, quote, being the easiest asset manager to work with. What does that mean in practice and, and how are you driving that philosophy? So

00:44:19 [Speaker Changed] Think about who you have loyalty to. Do you, are you loyal to an airline? Are you loyal to a hotel chain? Why are you, are you loyal to a grocery store? You’re loyal to them because you find the consistency of the experience you’re having with them makes you want to go back and it’s usually pleasurable and easy and you get what you want when you want it at the right price, with the right level of service to bring you satisfaction. Clients are no different in asset management. And we have within asset management, a lot of regulatory, you have client reporting, you have complexity of portfolios, like we were just talking about that and all. And, and you then have challenges in sometimes in an investment strategy or in the markets generally where you’re looking for good advice. So for offspring, what does it mean? It means accessibility, it means accessibility to our portfolio managers.

00:45:16 So if you, if you’re, if you have a question that you need to answer for a client and you need to get a portfolio manager or someone on their team get that answer quickly, you get it, we’re able to provide that for you. It’s also knowing our clients and getting the right information into their hands at the right time. Leveraging technology. It’s also about all of the backend, the complexity of reporting, the complexity of client onboarding. No one wants to fill out 30 forms to open up, up an account or to start a new investment. How do we create the ease of engagement with offspring for the intermediate, whether it’s an institution or the client that their money is put to work quickly and efficiently and easily in a way they understand. And that’s largely level leveraged by really good client relationships and then a technology infrastructure that’s being built to get them what they want when they want it. So we’re investing a lot in our technology platform right now to help achieve

00:46:15 [Speaker Changed] That. Since, since you brought up technology, I I’m legally obligated to ask about ai, what do you think about artificial intelligence as applied to the wealth management industry? How is offspring using ai?

00:46:27 [Speaker Changed] It’s, so I think of AI in sort of, or or strategy around AI in really three ways. One, we’ve turned it on in what I just call general efficiency tools like chat, GBT ask a question, you’re gonna get a better answer than if you put it into Google or helping you do first drafts of writing. Like there’s a lot of general efficiency kinds of tools that are out there that you could, like really anybody can be, can use fairly quickly without a lot of training. The second phase for us is really about partnership and who are we working with, who’s also investing in ai who will help us leverage solutions to help really mine data, it’s all about data at the bottom. You need really clean data. So we’re also spending a lot of time making sure we have clean data, but you need, if you’re gonna query data to give you an answer, the data better be right.

00:47:18 Otherwise you’re gonna get the hallucinations and false findings. So who we’re trying to leverage good partners in terms of building out our, our AI capabilities. And then the third pillar of it is really our own agents and, and, and the ent AI and, and what is it that we specifically can build inside offspring that will help us answer very specific questions associated with our own workflow and our own clients and trying to invest very specifically in business cases. There either in any of those scenarios though, you need to be able to put the business issue and, and the technology you need to be able to be able to translate between the two if you wanna be effective with it.

00:48:05 [Speaker Changed] And I, I feel compelled to ask you a question about culture. Not only because you were running a wealth management shop right in the middle of pandemic, but you’ve talked about the importance of culture and how significant it is for there to be a unifying philosophy for firm. Tell us a little bit about the culture of offspring and and how do you maintain that?

00:48:28 [Speaker Changed] So first all the, and what our cultural surveys have have conveyed to us is that the client centricity, the client focus at offspring is so high. I mean it’s, everything we do is are, we put what is in the best interest of the client. And I think if you have that as your North star from a cultural perspective and as a fiduciary, that means you’re gonna do the right thing. And that, and that then creates a lot of pull through, whether it’s in risk management or in client servicing, that all is really meaningful. Two, we, we have a nice culture. Like I think being, I think being positive, optimistic, nice to each other is really important. You wanna bring, you wanna build comradery, especially when you’re building a new organization. There are a lot of difficult things we have, we had to tackle internally and that we’re looking to build together.

00:49:22 So comradery and focus is really, I think, important. And then the third part of the stool to me is always this, always be learning is this credible challenge culture, right? Which is very important where we can all sit around the table and not agree. That’s the beauty of investing. That’s the beauty of any, any diverse set of people is that you’re gonna get differences of opinions and we should be able to share those opinions, debate those and get to a conclusion and then move forward. But you have to have credible challenge, you have to have it public and in the room, not in the conversation after the conversation. And so that’s something that we’re really focused on as we’re bringing, you know, the, these different parts of, of, of all springing together to work more closely is everyone has a voice and a seat at the table to express that their perspective. Doesn’t mean you get what you want, but but, but we’re, but we wanna hear it because that will help us make better decisions for our clients.

00:50:23 [Speaker Changed] Credible challenge. I I like that phrase. So last question before we get to our favorite questions. What do you think investors are not talking about but should be? Could be a asset or a geography policy. Okay. What’s out there that, that just isn’t getting enough attention? So

00:50:39 [Speaker Changed] AI is amazing in one way, but the other part of AI that I think has not gotten a lot of conversation yet is how much energy it uses. Oh really? And the need for the energy grid. There’s a lot of infrastructure build that’s gonna have to happen for the dream of AI to be successful. And if we aren’t able to catch up our energy infrastructure, then some of the dream of AI is going to be tampered simply because we don’t have enough energy to run it and individual consumer bills are gonna go through the roof, which is not gonna be palatable either. So to me it’s energy around AI needs more debate and discussion, huh? Yeah.

00:51:17 [Speaker Changed] And it’s already happening. We’re already seeing Yeah. Pockets of energy bills going through the roof. Exactly. Alright, let’s jump to our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests. Starting with mentors. Who are your early mentors who helped shape your career?

00:51:30 [Speaker Changed] So one of my earliest mentors was at Tommy Hilfiger, woman named Kathleen Gannon and another woman named Lynn Shanahan. They were just two powerhouse women early in my career who made me, helped me believe in myself and, and my capability set the other, the other, can I shift the question quickly? Sure. What I like to talk about is my board of directors, which is a concept of that as, as you work through your career, you should be aware of the people that you’re engaging with and how they can help you make good decisions in totality around your life. So as

00:52:05 [Speaker Changed] You, you’re not referring to your corporate board of directors? No personal,

00:52:07 [Speaker Changed] Your personal board. Personal board of directors.

00:52:09 I love that idea. So when I was a young mother, I needed other young mothers to be a part of my board who could help me work through like the challenges of work and, and, and rearing young children. As you progress in your career, some of them have been on my board forever. My parents, my, you know, my siblings are, are always available to me, but I have people that I’ve grown up with who have taken very different career arcs, but are really good with people or are really good with financials or really good with strategy decisions. And who can I look at outside of my, you know, people that I work with who provide all of that to me. But no, I have outside counsel and, and know that people come in and off that board at, depending on the phase I am in my own life. And so how do I, how do I leverage? So now I’m trying to build a better personal board of directors as a CEO saying, who are other people who have to experience these same sorts of experiences that I’m going through and how can I build relationships with them to help me learn and grow and gain more so I can be more value at it.

00:53:11 [Speaker Changed] Really interesting. Let’s talk about books. Yep. What are you reading now? What are some of your favorites?

00:53:16 [Speaker Changed] I I love historical fiction. I’m reading Trust right now by Hernan Diaz, I think is the last name. If I got that wrong, you can edit it out out. He, it’s about the, it won the Pulitzer Prize. It was, it’s about the, the roaring 1920s. It’s four disparate views of, and it shows how people can believe their own narrative of if they’re adding good to the world. So it’s like a robber baron is in it there, you know, there’s people who are involved in the evolution of what’s happening and some of them view that what they’re doing is good for society when in reality the society, you know, we went through a great depression as a result of it. Is

00:53:57 [Speaker Changed] That historical fiction or historical nonfiction,

00:54:01 [Speaker Changed] That’s an interesting view of it. But it’s very, but it’s, it’s fun to read and it’s, and it’s written by an author who’s writing it in four really distinctive voices too. So I enjoy it. Huh.

00:54:12 [Speaker Changed] Sounds, sounds interesting. What about entertainment? What are you either watching or listening to these days? What are you streaming? So

00:54:18 [Speaker Changed] When I am just winding down, I like a, a good hang with Amy Poer. I want her to be my friend. I want most of the people on that show to be my friend. She just brings such energy and positivity and humor to it that it’s always a, a good one to, to listen and, and wind down to. And then TV wise, I just watched Stranger Things with my children when they were back home from break. And I love Stranger things ’cause I’m literally the age of those kids, right? Like in the show I’m like, this is my, I’m like watching my youth play back to me, riding my bikes, building forts. My parents had no idea where we were. Thankfully we didn’t have any demic ordinances a after us. But like, it, it is just, it’s, it’s super fun. Nossal nostalgic and I, and, and then a great story line as well of teamwork and perseverance and fight and all that good stuff that,

00:55:12 [Speaker Changed] That’s next up in Mike Q. That’s really good. Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college graduate interested in a career in, it doesn’t matter, fixed income, investing in, in finance.

00:55:25 [Speaker Changed] One is network, network, network, network. I got my first job because I was trying to get a different job. I was talking to someone to make another introduction and ended up getting a job with that person instead. So you never know. You really have to lean into to meeting people and being open to where the conversation takes you. And two, what’s different now versus when I was growing up in it is there’s so much information available with this podcast. There’s so many places to learn and be informed. So really take control of your career and always be learning and, and find the area that is most interesting if you’re, if you lean towards equities, lean towards equities. If you lean towards fixed income, but teach yourself, don’t expect someone to teach it to you.

00:56:12 [Speaker Changed] And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today might have been useful 25 or 30 years ago when you were first getting started?

00:56:20 [Speaker Changed] I mean, this is true for all the power of compounding

00:56:24 [Speaker Changed] That comes up all the time,

00:56:26 [Speaker Changed] Every time. I mean it is, and

00:56:27 [Speaker Changed] You just don’t see it when you’re younger.

00:56:28 [Speaker Changed] You just don’t understand it when you’re younger. And so, and investing consistently, dollar averaging through the good times, through the bad times, if you have a consistency approach, you can build a long-term durable portfolio.

00:56:42 [Speaker Changed] Thank you Kate, for being so generous with your time. We have. Thank you for having me. My pleasure. We have been speaking with Kate Burke. She’s the CEO of alls springing Global Investments. If you enjoy these questions, well be sure to check out any of the 600 previous discussions we’ve had over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And be sure to check out my new book, how Not to invest the ideas, numbers, and behavior that destroys wealth and how to avoid them at your favorite bookstore. I’m Barry Als. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

 

 

 

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

My morning train reads:

Why US stocks don’t care a jot about Greenland, trade wars or global aggro: Does nothing matter to financial markets? Is this irrational exuberance run amok? Not really. Markets are mostly rational in ignoring most of the headlines slushing around. And they have a template to follow from last year. It seems a lifetime ago, but we have seen this movie before. (FT Alphaville)

Former Fed Researcher Claudia Sahm explains Kevin Warsh’s economic philosophy: He’s long on criticisms and short on solutions, which is troubling for someone who served as a Fed official during the largest financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. (Stay-At-Home-Macro)

Bitcoin down for fourth consecutive month, its longest losing streak since 2018: Bitcoin also suffered roughly $800 million in liquidations and ETF outflows in the past 24 hours. (Sherwood)

He’s Wall Street’s Biggest Showman. Should You Trust Him? Dan Ives has gone mainstream as Wall Street’s highest-profile stock analyst. Less well known is his growing set of overlapping business interests. (Barron’s)

A mysterious delay in the Supreme Court tariffs case: The Trump administration, though the underdog, will find each passing week an encouraging sign. (Washington Post)

The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline: America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year. (Bloomberg free)

Moltbook is a human-free Reddit clone where AI agents discuss cybersecurity and philosophy: Moltbook might be the strangest corner of the internet right now. It’s a Reddit-style social network where more than 35,000 150,000 1,146,946 AI agents talk to each other without any human involvement. The visual interface exists purely for humans to observe; agents communicate entirely through the API. (Decoder)

The Handyman: In the parking lot that defines America, Donald Trump’s darkest agenda is still unfolding, one hour at a time. (Slate)

The Man Who Broke Physics: Even before competing in his first Olympics, 21-year-old Ilia Malinin has transformed the sport of figure skating. (The Atlantic)

Bad Bunny and Kendrick Lamar win big in Grammys ceremony filled with anti-ICE sentiment: Musicians delivered impassioned speeches during a star-packed night that saw Lamar become the most awarded rapper of all time. (The Guardian)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

The Average Effective Tariff Rate

Source: Apollo

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What’s Going On with the Dollar?

 

 

I am always looking for interesting and informative charts, especially ones I can include in my quarterly call that explain something clients are curious about or introduce a lower-profile idea. The call that kicked off 2026 dived into the weakness in the dollar. Given how significant the US Dollar weakness has been, let’s take a look at what has been happening with the world’s reserve currency and why it is significant to stocks, bonds, and commodities.

2025 was the year international stocks finally caught up to the US. Since the financial crisis, the US has led the world’s economy and equity markets. That changed significantly last year, as the S&P 500 and even the Nasdaq 100 lagged behind while international stocks gained over 33%. That was about twice the increase we saw in the U.S

 

And there’s a simple reason for this: The weakest U.S. dollar since 2017.

As the chart at the top of the page shows, every major currency has outperformed the United States currency in 2025 – even Japan.

That is not a coincidence. This isn’t partisan; it isn’t politics; it is simply a fact: the dollar was down 9.2%. The last time it was down this much was in 2017, when it fell 9.9%. Both years marked the first term of a Trump presidency; both involved tariffs; both alienated trade partners.

 

Here’s a straightforward explanation: U.S. trading partners are very unhappy with tariffs and defense policies. We are part of a deeply interconnected global economy, and although none of our trading partners has our level of wealth, they are not without options. They don’t support the end of the post-war alliances nor “America First” – and are responding accordingly.1

Thus, the trend we observed throughout 2025 was simply a Repatriation Trade. Overseas Investors, including private holdings, sovereign wealth funds, public funds, and other large pools of capital, decided to reduce some US-specific risk. They sold portions of their US holdings in dollars, converted that into their local currencies—euros, pounds, yen, Swiss francs, pesos, yuan—brought the cash back home, and then purchased local stocks and bonds.

I cannot imagine any other reason for every single major currency to appreciate so much against the US Dollar without some variation of the above occurring. Traditionally, rates and the dollar move more or less together; when we see this kind of decoupling, it usually means something unusual is going on:

 

This is what happens when your trading partners and our security partners are unhappy with your policies and vote with their dollars. (If anybody has a better explanation as to what’s going on, I’d love to hear it).

I am not a catastrophist; I don’t think this is the end of the dollar as the global reserve currency or the end of Pax Americana; it is, however, concerning and warrants attention. If you treat your trading partners poorly, they aren’t just gonna take it; they are going to respond in kind. They bought a chunk of their capital home. As it turns out, repatriating all those dollars made those markets do much better than US markets. Not that plus ~18% is terrible, it’s just relatively, we were the laggard.

What will cause this change? I don’t see this administration reversing course unless the Supreme Court forces them to do so. I am genuinely surprised they have failed to do so in what is an obvious case.

But that’s how I see the dollar story.

 

 

Previously:
IEEPA Tariffs Update (January 27, 2026)

Stocks, Bubbles & Market Myths (January 16, 2026)

Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

The Probability Machine (August 28, 2025)

Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

 

See also:
A mysterious delay in the Supreme Court tariffs case
Jason Willick
Washington Post, February 1 2026

 

 

__________

1. Position Disclosures: In my personal account, my “2026 SCOTUS reverses IEEPA tariffs” trade is to be long GM, Ford, Caterpillar, and Walmart; the short Silver is a reflection that perhaps the dollar trade has gone as far as it might go for this leg…

See this chart from Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, who noted: “It was a historic and extraordinary month for precious metals, even with the late pullback. In fact, gold (+13.3%) saw its best monthly performance since September 1999, and silver (+18.9%) posted a 9th consecutive monthly gain.”

 

 

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10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

Kevin Warsh Is Trump’s Man—and His Own. How He Will Reshape the Fed. Kevin Warsh is President Trump’s nominee for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Trump says in a social-media post. (Barron’s) see also A Bad Heir Day at the Fed: No, Kevin Warsh isn’t qualified. (Paul Krugman)

What happens after the Age of the Dollar ends? International financial anarchy. A lot of people have this vague idea that the world’s finances are based on the U.S. dollar, but they don’t really know exactly what that means, and they don’t know what it would mean for the dollar to lose that status. In fact, people are right to be a little confused, because there are basically a few different ways that the dollar matters to the international financial system. (Noahpinion)

Why public expectations of inflation matter: Think of my analysis here regarding the wisdom of the crowds as aggregating the FT’s findings. Chart 1 explores this further. It plots actual inflation together with the one-year forecast of the BoE and one-year public expectations of inflation since 2006. The public has over-predicted actual inflation by an annual average of only 0.1 percentage points by 0.5 percentage points in terms of the median (although they wildly miss major turning points). (LSE Business Review)

How high can prices in the Hamptons go? Median prices hit record $2.3M, fueled by Wall Street money and low inventory. (The Real Deal)

Millions in bets ride on what Trump will say, do or invade next: More than $200 million is staked on political or government actions on Polymarket and Kalshi, raising concerns about insider trading from officials in the know. (Washington Post) see also When All Bets Are Off, All Bets Are On: Investors hate uncertainty. Speculators love it. (Wall Street Journal)

‘I just don’t have a good feeling about this’: Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone’s now looking at the wrong alarm. (Fortune)

‘Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company: $500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips. (Wall Street Journal)

Jeffrey Epstein files: don’t be fooled. Millions of files are still unreleased. Federal prosecutors had identified 6 million files that were ‘potentially responsive’ to the law, but only released 3.5. Why? (The Guardian)

The Midseason Steal Who Turned Into a Super Bowl Triple Threat: No one in the NFL has broken off more huge scoring plays than Seattle Seahawks’ Rashid Shaheed, the rare trade deadline acquisition who can return kicks, take handoffs, and catch bombs through the air. (Wall Street Journal)

When Bruce Springsteen (Hank Azaria) Met Michael Stipe (Michael Shannon): Both actors pay homage to rock ’n’ roll greats onstage. But their relationships to their muses — and how they perform their songs — are very different. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

Kevin Warsh’s assessment of inflation during his Fed governorship (2006-2011)

Source: LinkedIn

 

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10 Sunday Morning Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Trump’s Year of Anarchy: The Unconstrained Presidency and the End of American Primacy. (Foreign Affairs)

The Crypto CEO Who’s Become Enemy No. 1 on Wall Street: Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong is clashing with Jamie Dimon and other bank stewards over the future of finance. (Wall Street Journal)

Injury to Buildings and Vegetables: The ability to impose pollution on others is another aspect of class rule. (N+1)

US Has Investigated Claims That WhatsApp Chats Aren’t Private: US law enforcement has been investigating allegations by former Meta Platforms Inc. contractors that Meta personnel can access WhatsApp messages, despite the company’s statements that the chat service is private and encrypted, according to interviews and an agent’s report seen by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg)

Trapped in the hell of social comparison: A hypothesis about why Americans are unhappy with their economy. (Noahpinion)

On the architecture of unreality: Bari Weiss is not a journalist. She is a propagandist with a journalist’s title. She has an agenda. She has interests. And they align with the interests of those who think keeping the current regime in charge of our national affairs is theirs. It is why she brings the reactionary fraud Niall Ferguson to CBS: to lend the appearance of intellectual heft to what is, in fact, a project of epistemological sabotage. (Notes from the Circus) see also The commenters won: We are ruled, as it turned out, not only by ghouls, fascists, sociopaths, salesmen, influencers, mediocrities, and abusers, but by something stranger and potentially worse: Gawker commenters.  Which Trump administration official is a former Gawker commenter? (Read Max)

The Height of Close-Combat Weaponry Is on This Woman’s Doorstep: In pursuit of illegal immigrants, federal agents are carrying the instruments of war, fine-tuned and perfected for killing at short range. (New York Times)

The Sins on the River Road Cannot Be Erased: How did a tiny industrial hub in Louisiana find itself at the center of America’s culture war? For St. John the Baptist Parish, the history is much deeper—and the costs of one age are stacked on the costs of another. (The Ringer)

Police Who Once Backed ICE’s Mission Are Losing Faith in Its Tactics: In Minnesota and places where agents are deployed en masse, law-enforcement leaders are challenging whether they are adhering to the stated mission. ICE says operations are lawful and targeted. (Wall Street Journal) see also Police and ICE Agents Are on a Collision Course: After another fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis, the rift between local police and federal agents is becoming a rupture. (The Atlantic)

Forgotten Star Dorothy Stratten Almost Lived the Hollywood Fairy Tale. It Ended as a Horror Story. Peter Bogdanovich, Bob Fosse, and Hugh Hefner all loved her, in their own ways—for better and worse. This reexamination of Stratten’s life, rape, and murder casts a new light on the angel who was a centerfold. (Vanity Fair)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

Average 50-something American is worth $1.4 million; Average 20-something $127,730

Source: Empower

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~~~

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MiB: Kate Burke, Allspring Global Investments, CEO

 

 

This week, I speak with Kate Burke, chief executive officer of Allspring Global Investments and director on the Board of Directors at Allspring Global Investments. The firm manages over $635 billion dollars primarily in fixed income (and equity) assets for institutions. About two-thirds of Allspring’s $635 billion is on its fixed income platform, which includes their liquidity (money market) business; equity is about 20% of the assets.

We discuss her career at AllianceBernstein, including the transition from Chief Talent Officer to CEO, and her move to Allspring. We also discuss her asset management philosophy, and the firm’s long term relationship with Wells Fargo, which is its largest client, with a focus on money market, defined benefits, and institutional management business.

A list of her current reading/favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Bob Moser, CEO and founder of Prime Group Holdings, a private investor in unique real estate holdings. They created Prime Storage, one of the largest, privately-held self-storage brands in the world, with over 19 million rentable square feet of space and 255 locations across 28 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The firm has acquired over $10 billion in real estate assets.

 

 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form (surprisingly arts & entertainment oriented) weekend reads:

23 Ways You’re Already Living in the Chinese Century: The robotics explosion. The energy revolution. The cultural takeover. It’s everything you wanted for the United States—but done better in China. (Wired)

The Cult of Costco: Its consistency is its superpower. (The Atlantic)

Can Department Stores Ever Be Fun Again? Saks Fifth Avenue’s bankruptcy filing has revived debates about how these once celebrated shopping emporiums can regain their luster. (New York Times)

The Harry Potter Generation Needs to Grow Up: You don’t see this with fiction like “The Lord of the Rings” or “The Chronicles of Narnia.” Sales of those books may rise and fall in response to new film or TV adaptations, but those franchises aren’t bound to a particular generation in the way that Harry Potter is bound to the millennials. (New York Times)

By All Measures: Our problems are too vast, our distance from them too great. How do we navigate our derangement of scale? (Longreads)

Are You Enjoying Our Linguine? How American tourists took over everything. (The Dial)

How Hackers Are Fighting Back Against ICE: ICE has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on surveillance technology to spy on anyone—and potentially everyone—in the United States. It can be hard to imagine how to defend oneself against such an overwhelming force. But a few enterprising hackers have started projects to do counter-surveillance against ICE, and hopefully protect their communities through clever use of technology. (Electronic Frontier Foundation)

There is No Proto-Dragon: The Illusion of Fictional Taxonomy: Ask not what a dragon does, but what a dragon is. (Typebar Magazine)

Defining Moments in TV History You’ve Probably Never Heard About: Many of the most-important events have slipped from our collective memories. But their impacts live on. (Wall Street Journal)

The Search for Alien Artifacts: Is Coming Into Focus From surveys of the pre-Sputnik skies to analysis of interstellar visitors, scientists are rethinking how and where to look for physical traces of alien technology. (Wired)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

GS survey: Half of investors plan to increase exposure to hedge funds

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

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~~~

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Succession

 

 

So, we announced our succession plan this morning.

My emails and DMs lit up immediately, with all sorts of questions, but mostly asking, “Are you retiring?!?”

No, but I’ll get to that shortly.

The reason we announced this: As a financial planning firm, I wanted all of our clients, partners, employees, and colleagues to see that we practice what we preach. If you want clients to take you seriously when you advise them to think in decades, make estate and business continuity plans, you have to follow your own advice.

From the beginning, when we self-funded our launch and had just five of us, we have been inviting key employees to become partners. We have always done this with our own capital, a bank line of credit, and no outside investors. By the end of our first decade, we had 20 partners. In 2024, there were 26 partners. This year, we grew to 29 partners.

Our goal is to be the best employee-owned advisory shop in the country.

As for my daily routine, nothing has changed. I still hold the roles of Chairman and Chief Investment Officer. My daily activities are essentially the same. I am still in the office the same number of times a week; I am still doing my pods at Bloomberg, still blogging, speaking at conferences, and writing more books.

What is going to change? More of our RWM rockstars are now employee-owners, with many more expected to become owners over the next decade.

Maybe I’ll swap the old Cabrio for a newer model, one with ABS & airbags. I recently found a new timepiece I’d been hunting for a while, and I pulled the trigger on that. And, I added more Munis to my personal portfolio. Aside from that, not much is different…

~~~

For the past 12 years, we have built a firm dedicated to putting clients first. Every day, we share with investors what we truly believe are the best ways to manage their portfolios and financial lives. We do this for free to the general public, and in great specificity and detail for our clients. I have been doing this publicly since the late 1990s, and that will go on for as long as I can cobble together an intelligent sentence.

I am excited about what we have built so far, and I look forward to what this team will accomplish over the next decade!

 

 

Source:
Ritholtz Wealth Management Executes Employee-led Succession Plan to Create Industry’s Most Visible, Dominant “Forever Firm”
BusinessWire, Jan 30, 2026

 

See also:
Inside Ritholtz Wealth Management’s Succession Plan
By Andrew Welsch
Barron’s Jan 30, 2026

Barry Ritholtz sells shares in $7.6bn RIA’s planned succession
By Ian Wenik
CityWire, Jan 30, 2026

Ritholtz Wealth Puts Succession Plan in Place As Co-Founder Barry Ritholtz Nears 65
By Alex Ortolani
Wealth Management, January 30, 2026

 

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

The average 50-something American is now worth $1.4 million: Want to get rich? Get old. That’s what the data tells us about net worth in America. The average 50-something American has a net worth of $1.4 million, according to a report from Empower, the financial services firm. The average 60-something is worth $1.6 million. By contrast, the average 20-something is worth a mere $127,730. (USA Today)

America’s own goal: Americans pay almost entirely for Trump’s tariffs: Contrary to US government rhetoric, the cost of US import tariffs are not borne by foreign exporters. Instead, they hit the American economy itself. Importers and consumers in the US bear 96 percent of the tariff burden. (Kiel Institute) see also TACO Tracking: Trump Carries Out Just One in Four Tariff Threats: Financial markets and C-suite executives have mostly shrugged off Trump’s latest warnings involving Iran’s trading partners, Greenland’s supporters, Canada and South Korea, seeing them as merely words intended to gain leverage or change behavior — nothing he’d actually carry out. (Bloomberg)

How a BlackRock Loss Reignited Worries About What Is Hiding in Private Credit: Fund had marked investments as full-valued as recently as November, before disclosing a 19% decline last week. (Wall Street Journal)

Who’s been buying all the gold? “Some will argue that global central banks are moving their reserves away from dollars and into gold, and this is a better measure of debasement than the bond market.” (Financial Times)

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Despite Trump’s Tariffs: The monthly trade deficit and imports rebounded in November after shrinking significantly in prior months, new data show. (New York Times)

Anthropic Is at War With Itself: The AI company shouting about AI’s dangers can’t quite bring itself to slow down. (The Atlantic)

The World Is Drowning in Tourists. Who Should Pay the Price? I’m the problem, it’s me. Last summer a French tabloid sting operation uncovered that Americans (or at least journalists posing as Americans) were being charged up to 50% more than Parisians in some of the city’s most touristy cafes. (Bloomberg)

How popular is Donald Trump? Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman. (Silver Bulletin)

Yes, one image from space can change humanity’s perspective: Our view of the world, the Universe, and ourselves can change with just one glimpse of what’s out there. It’s happened many times before. (Starts With a Bang)

Michael J. Fox and Harrison Ford on Shrinking, Parkinson’s, and Donald Trump: Following his first TV role in five years, Fox hopes to meet with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about funding research for the incurable brain disease. But as he exclusively tells VF, the current administration “seems that they’re involved in other things that have less impact on peoples’ lives.” (Vanity Fair)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

YouTube leads all media, but legacy studios saw a live sports boost in Nielsen’s latest snapshot of TV distributors

Source: The Hollywood Reporter

 

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At The Money: Building an ETF



 

 

At The Money: Building an ETF with Wes Gray, Alpha Architect (January 28, 2026)

Have you ever had a great investment strategy and thought to yourself, “Hey, this is really good! It should be an ETF!” It is much easier than it used to be to create a strategy and put it into an ETF wrapper.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Wes Gray is founder and CEO of ETF architect. He helps managers turn strategies into ETFs by providing turnkey, white label platforms to handle all of the complex and expensive office operations.

For more info, see:

Professional website

Masters in Business

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Mutual funds, trusts, and ETFs. Have you ever wondered how these are put together? Are you an analyst, strategist, or fund manager that has a really good idea? Have you thought about launching a fund to employ that idea? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re going to discuss how to build your own exchange-traded fund or ETF.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio. Let’s bring in Wes Gray of ETF architect. He helps managers turn strategies into ETFs by providing turnkey white label platforms that handle. Legal compliance operations, portfolio management, allowing sponsors to focus on the idea and distribution, and Wes also runs the Alpha Architect Shop as well.

Full disclosure, Wes Gray and ETF architect are helping my firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management launch a new ETF later this year.

Barry Ritholtz: So Wes, let’s start with the basics. If I’m someone with a novel strategy and a good idea for a ticker, what are the elements that determine whether or not this ETF launches or whether it just dies on the vine?

Wes Gray: It’s gonna come down to low fees, capital and passion in ETF market, as you know, you gotta have low fees for the most part, or people aren’t gonna buy your product. And low fees means you also gotta have a lot of capital to back this thing. ’cause you gotta be around for at least three to five years to tell your story and then you gotta have the passion.

You’re in a market competing with monopolies like BlackRock and Vanguard. So you gotta be someone like a Perth Toll that we talked about previously where you just have to go knock on doors and tell people why your product and your story is so great.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m curious as to the timeline from the original conception to Trading Day.

What’s a realistic timeline and where are the common bottlenecks?

Wes Gray: We generally tell folks, four months, you sign the letter of intent and you’re ready to whoop it on. We can get this thing out the door in plus or minus four months. Obviously that could go out to four years, depending on your, your own internal issues.

But we’ve got this thing, so checklist and automated. At this point, if you want to launch in four months for like a relatively straightforward ETF, that’s gonna be possible.

Barry Ritholtz: Four months seems really short, but I guess I’m imagining how long it takes to accumulate enough seed capital launch. How much money under management do you need to launch an ETF? How does that get structured? What’s the usual launch dollar amount?

Wes Gray: This is a moving target. And let’s say four or five years ago we would’ve said, Hey, 5 million minimum. Now we tell people 25 million and I’m about to probably move it up to 50 million. And, really it’s, it’s not because of the operating cost of the ETF, it’s to convey credibility to the marketplace.

We, need, like people just, everyone kind of knows like, yeah, where’s your break even? You know, ’cause I want you to be in business three to five years from now, and usually that break even in people’s minds is 25 to 50 mil. High barrier to entry just on that.

Now, how do you seed these things?

Well, there’s basically two methods. You either seed with cash. So you launch the ETF and people go open up their Schwab account and click the button and you know, pay cash to buy your ETF. Or you can seed it with property where there, it’s a little bit convoluted, but there’s this thing called Section 351 where you can actually contribute property tax free to seed the ETF.

So basically, cash or property is the two methods you can use.

Barry Ritholtz: And I’m assuming property is usually individual stocks or bonds. Is that right?

Wes Gray: You got it. So, so if you have a portfolio of securities, public securities that naturally fit in the CTF, you can contribute those tax-free. And then that, that property serves as initial seed for essentially the launch of the ETF.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned break even. Take me into the minutia of what the backend of this looks like – legal, audit, administration, listing distribution, marketing. What are the big costs that any ETF manager has run? Where do people kind of make mistakes with these?

Wes Gray: I’ll kind of reverse the, the question and, and let me tell you what we’ve done, the cost and what you have to do, because what you’re asking about is a total dumpster fire behind the scenes, but essentially for our platform is you show up with the spreadsheet, tell us what to do. And you go market and distribute this thing, comma compliantly. ’cause we have oversight responsibilities. That’s your two primary jobs.

We’re gonna deal with all the dumpster fire behind the scenes and the generic cost of doing this to launch an ETF, again, all sandbag for a generic ETF, just with easy numbers. You’re looking at a 50k startup, soup to nuts. Which is not the bad news.

The bad news is the ongoing. Cost to deal with all the aspects you just talked about, and you know, it’s plus or minus, but you’re looking around 200K a year. What the heck does that mean as a business, uh, setup? Well, it, you know, if you charge 1%, your breakeven is 20 million.

If you charge 20 basis points, which is a much, you know, much more marketable, your breakeven is a hundred million. And then everything in between. So, so obviously your breakeven depends on your fee, but you’re looking at 200 k burn a year on average.

Barry Ritholtz:  Let’s say someone comes to you with a systematic strategy. How do they decide whether or not this is based on an index and running it fairly statically versus a more active ETF that’s run more dynamically.

Wes Gray: This advice has also changed over time. We’re we’re, in the old days, we would say, Hey, index active, there’s a bigger trade off there now.

It’s almost always the case. Just go active. Even if your strategy is a hundred percent systematic, why is that? Well, there’s just low overhead cost. I don’t have to pay for a third party index agent. I don’t gotta pay for third party service providers. And, and I also have a little bit more flexibility at the margin.

So for example, let’s say I’m on an index versus an active, and I’m doing the exact same strategy, but we know this week there’s gonna be three Fed meetings and. You know, the world’s gonna blow up. I might not wanna rebalance this week, I’ll just punt to next week. That’s easy in an active strategy, in an index strategy that’s possible — but the paperwork trail and the compliance to be able to facilitate, that’s essentially a nightmare.

Which means most index funds just follow the book no matter what, on unlike little minutiae decisions like this. We recommend active at the margin.

Barry Ritholtz: You must see a ton of different strategies. What do you see that really. Shouldn’t be put into an ETF. What, what kind of strategy, even if a manager is passionate and excited about the idea, what, what are the sort of red flags that, “Hey, you don’t want this in an ETF?”

Wes Gray: I don’t know if I’m weird or just old school or conservative, but, but if I’m not gonna recommend this to my parents or my, my grandma. Why we have this in an ETF where anyone with a Schwab account can click the button and have a party, right?

What does that mean? Things like double levered, triple levered, whatevers, uh, a lot of these gimmicky products that are extremely expensive and they have tons of embedded costs via like swaps and a lot of other things that aren’t transparent. I can’t stand those products personally.

Does that mean that people won’t do ’em? Well, of course not. If you can sell out to people that are gonna pay 1% for your stupid idea, great. But I’m not a big fan of having those products in the ETF marketplace.

Barry Ritholtz: You’re not a big fan of the inverse three x levered Bitcoin.ETFI?

Wes Gray: No, I’m not a fan. And again, maybe I’m just a funny duddy and I need to move on in the world, but I’m just kinda, old school, I like, you know, low fees, transparent, tax efficient things that people can understand, uh, that presumably add value, uh, in the long game.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about, uh, some of the block and tackling once an ETF is created and launched, how, how do you think about. What I think about as someone who was on a trading desk as good market behavior, meaning tight spreads, reasonable liquidity, especially if the ETF is holding some assets that are perhaps a little less liquid than than average.

Wes Gray: That’s a great question and, and it creates a lot of confusion in the marketplace.

There are, there’s basically two types of ETFs, one we’ll call liquidity diamonds. These are ETFs that everyone knows, right – like SPY or Triple Q – where when you go and transact in those ETFs, it’s very likely that you’re actually trading shares with someone else who actually owns those ETF shares. That’s rare. Right, because it’s just such a huge market.

The other set of ETFs, which is 99.99% of ’em is normal ETFs, where when you go access the marketplace, you’re accessing what they call primary liquidity, which means you’re asking a market maker to give you a bid ask spread.

So the vast majority of that bid ask spread. Is simple to understand. What would it cost you as a trader to acquire or dispose of that basket of securities? For example, if I’m trading the triple levered Zimbabwe Bitcoin swaps, well, my bid ask spread might be 10%. Why? Where if I’m trading a basket that’s s and p 500 stocks, even though the ETF maybe never trade, but once a year.

We could trade a billion dollars of that ETF with a couple basis points of impact. So it just depends on the underlying basket liquidity.

Barry Ritholtz: You may notice I didn’t ask an obvious question, “Hey, do you go ETF structure or not?” I think we all understand the advantages of this structure — intraday liquidity, no phantom capital gains taxes.

What might send us in a different direction, an SMA, a mutual fund to trust when is an ETF really not the right structure.

Wes Gray: Another great question. So ETFs, and unfortunately we run ETF architects, so everything should be at an ETF, of course. Right? But you know, let, let’s be honest here, the big disadvantages of the ETF structure are transparency.

And you cannot close an ETF. So if we have a strategy where transparency is just not, you know, gonna play favorably for my shareholders, ’cause I, I don’t wanna expose this to the world every single day, then obviously you can’t do an ETF for all intents and purposes. The other one is capital constraints.

So let’s say we’re trading the microcap strategy and penny stocks, where the maximum amount of capital that can go in there is called 50 a hundred mil. Beyond that I’m gonna start blowing the whole concept up. You cannot stop or close an ETF, whereas an SMA or mutual fund, obviously they, they have tools in which you can actually capacity constrained, uh, the capital you take on.

Barry Ritholtz: We have noticed just a tremendous amount of flows are going to the big three – they go to BlackRock, they go to Vanguard, they go to State Street, and broad passive indexes have dominated a lot of the flows. The exception has been these kind of new, clever, unusual, active funds that occasionally catch people’s fancy.

If you’re thinking about creating an ETF, what sort of space should you really be looking in? What sort of strategy is the best ETF alternative to the core of a lot of people’s portfolios, the big indexes.

Wes Gray: I would basically focus on things that Vanguard or iShares can’t do well, which is you can usually gonna be very boutique, very niche strategies where it takes some special expertise to put those portfolios together and or you can’t jam a trillion dollars into the strategy.

Basically be good at being a boutique, ’cause you’re never gonna beat Vanguard at delivering scale trillion dollar market beta. That’s insanity.

Anytime you have a strategy that, that Vanguard is not offering because it’s either really complex, really differentiated, hard to explain, hard to build, hard to manufacturer, or there’s just not massive scalability, that’s where you’d wanna focus.

If you can put a trillion dollars in your strategy without any breaks, it’s probably not gonna work,  because Vanguard’s already doing it and we don’t wanna compete with the monopoly.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, if you’re an analyst or strategist, or even fund manager, and you have a unique idea that you think will do well in the market as well, as well in the marketplace, you think others are willing to pay for it with their capital, consider launching your own ETF. You need about $25 million in assets and a cost of about a quarter million dollars annually, but the upside are potentially hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in client assets.

I’m Barry Ritholtz and this is Bloomberg’s at the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: Building an ETF appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads:

Will Danoff, Fidelity Contrafund’s Legendary Manager Keeps Beating the Market. Now He’s Getting Closer to Passing On the Reins. The legendary manager has taken on two co-managers to help him run the mammoth fund. Just don’t use the word “retirement.” (Barron’s).

The Next Step on the Bond Ladder: ETFs New funds offer income from bond ladders inside an ETF. Here are the pros and cons for investors. (Morningstar)

Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance. The dollar’s dominance was built on the foundation of America’s many strengths. But like termites eating away at a house’s woodwork, Trump’s dysfunctional policies are eating away at its support and rendering the US currency acutely vulnerable to future shocks. (Financial Times)

Management Fees as the Anti-Alpha: What’s a management fee? Why are investors using this contractually fixed fee in their endeavor to seek market alpha? (Cash and Carried)

Stung by Trump, America’s Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China: Some U.S. allies are weighing closer ties to Beijing as they seek alternative markets (Wall Street Journal) see also Canadians Are Boycotting US Ski Slopes: Travelers from Canada, long the biggest source of international visitors to the US, have pushed back against the president’s imperialist rhetoric. Winter resorts are feeling the chill. (Businessweek) see also How Canada Became an Enemy: It’s not about trade, it’s about ego. (Paul Krugman)

OpenAI Wants To Create Biometric Social Network To Kill X’s Bot Problem: OpenAI is quietly building a social network and considering using biometric verification like World’s eyeball scanning orb or Apple’s Face ID to ensure its users are people, not bots. (Forbes)

Trump is dealing with an immigration mess of his own making: The killing of Alex Pretti on Saturday, coming just two weeks after the shooting death of Renée Good, represents a crisis moment for Trump’s immigration policy. (Washington Post)

Why Your “Squirrel-Proof” Bird Feeder Never Stood a Chance: You’re handing puzzles to expert problem-solvers. (Slate)

Minnesota Proved MAGA Wrong: The pushback against ICE exposed a series of mistaken assumptions. (The Atlantic)

When the World Turned to Color: The Inside Story of The Beatles on Ed Sullivan: There are moments in history that act as permanent markers of “Before” and “After.” The printing press. The atomic bomb. The moon landing. On a cold Sunday night in February 1964, four young men from Liverpool joined that list. In just 12 minutes and 40 seconds of television, they didn’t just play songs; they redrew the cultural map of the Western world. (Beatles Rewind)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Kate Burke, CEO of Allspring Global Investments a global asset manager with more than 600 billion dollars in assets under advisement. She is also a director on the firm’s board. Previously, she was at AllianceBernstein as COO/CFO.

 

Europe’s Top Economies in 2026 by Projected GDP
Source: Visual Capitalist

 

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IEEPA Tariffs Update

 

 

Two weeks ago, I wrote “It’s Tariff Week! *.”

The asterisk added the word “Hopefully…

This is likely the week the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the IEEPA tariffs in place since April 2025.” I wrote, getting it totally wrong. It turned out to be (mostly) wishful thinking on my part.

As we continue to await the decision that should overturn the tariffs, let’s update the latest data on the IEEPA tariffs.1 Specifically, I want to focus on tariffs and the impact they have had on the economy.2

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Before diving into the economic details, let’s talk TACO.3

A Bloomberg analysis (dated January 27) found that about 75% of Trump’s tariff threats amount to little or nothing. When people ask if the market is irrational as it ignores tariffs, the proper answer is to point them to the pie chart at top. Markets turn out to be mostly rational, most of the time.4

Whether you see them as bluffs or negotiation tactics, this explains why the market has become so sanguine about tariffs. They understand that most of the time, it‘s just noise; the rest of the time, it’s a 10% market sell-off away from a reversal. This is well documented in WSJ, Barron’s, FT, Bloomberg, etc.

 

What this means — at least so far — is that much of this policy has not been implemented. Despite that, the data below strongly suggests that the Tariffs have had a substantial impact economically.5  U.S. Consumers today face an average effective tariff rate of 18% — the highest since 1934, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

~~~

The Labor market is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy. When jobs are plentiful and wages are rising, consumers feel better about spending and debt. We see evidence of this in labor data, consumer spending, and sentiment.

 

The chart above is from my Q1 2026 client call. It shows a huge post-pandemic surge that began slowing in 2022 to more normal (aka) sustainable levels.

Then came April 2nd, 2025. We expect a substantial tax increase to cause some issues with hiring, but the haphazard, almost random way these were implemented was especially disruptive. We have not added any jobs since Liberation Day. Worse, the NY Times analysis found “Health care and social assistance accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025.”

Overall, the unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025. BLS reported that “Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 8 states, decreased in the District of Columbia, and was essentially unchanged in 42 states.” Estimates suggest unemployment will increase an additional 0.7 – 1.0 percentage points by the end of 2026, lowering total payroll employment by 490,000 by the end of the year.

But for the tariffs, total payroll employment would have been 490,000 higher at the end of 2025.

~~~

Since Tariffs act as a Tax on consumers, let’s consider the impact of these costs on inflation and consumer spending.

Inflation has remained sticky, despite widespread expectations it would continue to drop. Some estimates put the average burden of 2025 tariffs at about 1.3% or an average per household of $1,800 annually.6 The Tax Policy Center estimates were even higher, at $2,100 per household in 2026, with larger percentage impacts on lower-income households.

CBO’s outlook explicitly attributes upward pressure on the cost of goods and production inputs to higher tariffs, which pushed inflation higher in 2025 relative to a no-tariff baseline.

Contrary to what the administration has claimed, American importers and consumers bear nearly all of the costs. According to the Keil Institute, “Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.”

~~~

Beyond New Hires plummeting, consider what else happened after the Liberation Tariffs were announced:

-Except for AI, similar decreases occurred in Corporate Capital Expenditures (imagine what that would look like but for the hyper-scalers).

Consumer Sentiment at its lowest level in 12 years.

-An Economist/YouGov poll found “71% of Americans feel like the country is out of control.”

One thing Trump did get right about tariffs: They bring actual dollars into the federal government coffers. About $200 billion in 2025 alone, estimated to raise about $2.5 trillion between 2026-35. Once tariff revenues reach billions or trillions of dollars, the legal claim that this is not a tax becomes utterly nonsensical.

~~~

SCOTUS Blog recently discussed the modern history of opinion releases. Specifically, how hotly-awaited decisions can be issued on non-argument days. So not only have we NOT gotten the SCOTUS decision on Tariffs, but the regular schedule now shows the next non-argument day on the court’s calendar is Friday, Feb. 20.

There is nothing that prevents the court from releasing a decision whenever, especially considering this was fast-tracked back in September.

racked back in September. I remain hopeful we get a decision before Feb. 20. Perhaps this is only wishful thinking on my part (again).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Previously:
It’s Tariff Week! * (January 12, 2026)

Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax? (March 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 8, 2025)

Which States Could Suffer the Most From Trade War Tariffs? (September 16, 2019)

 

 

 

Sources:
Learning Resources v. Donald J. Trump, POTUS (full docket)

America’s own goal: Americans pay almost entirely for Trump’s tariffs (Kiel, 19.01.2026)

Stung by Trump, America’s Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China (WSJ, Jan 26, 2026)

Consumer Price Index: 2025 in review (January 21, 2026)

CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028 (September 2025)

 

 

 

__________

1. I fully expect the tariffs to be overturned (7-2?), but if they are not, I will consider that the end of whatever shreds of credibility the court has left. I do expect new Ethics rules eventually; a major court revamp is also a (less likely) possibility.

2, No, this is not a full review of the economic impact of Trump’s first year. If there is an appetite for that among clients and readers, I may yet put that together in the coming weeks. TBH, I am kind of surprised Wall Street has not done this yet…

3. TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out

4. See “Maybe Mr. Market Is Rational After All” (August 7, 2020) and “Rational Exuberance?” (November 24, 2025)

5. There have also been substantial geopolitical, strategic, and military impacts of the tariffs. I will leave it to others to address those sorts of things, as they are outside my areas of expertise…

6. BLS’ Consumer Price Index 2025 in review found that “prices for all items rose 2.7%.” The hardest hit are manufactured goods from abroad and commodities (including food and energy).

 

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