EU Will Be AIsimilated

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Resistance is futile. You will be AIsimmilated. The Trump administration really wants the rest of the (Western?) world to embrace American-made artificial intelligence and technology. Last week, the US suspended the US-UK Technology Prosperity deal, reportedly because the Trump administration was frustrated about the lack of progress on trade talks.

But the Telegraph reported that this may be due to concerns that the UK’s Online Safety Act could slow development of US artificial intelligence – as the US races to stay ahead of China. That makes sense: the US government has been unhappy with European regulation in many fields, including digital services providers.

The US Trade Representative argues that this creates an unequal playing field for US companies, whereas European companies are allowed to operate freely in the US. Yesterday, Greer warned the European Union that the US could use every tool at its disposal to counter “unreasonable” regulations, naming about a dozen of European companies that might be affected.

The EU may be looking at cutting red tape in several areas, but it has so far shown little appetite for hollowing out privacy laws, for example. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has shown its willingness to coerce governments by other means. Could Brussels’ insistence on these rules lead to a new trade dispute with the US?

These threats cast new doubt over EU-US relations, after the US have also called into question the country’s commitment to Article 5 of the NATO treaty. The trade agreement reached earlier this year has clearly failed to pacify the US government, despite Brussels’ pledges to invest more in the US, and buy more American energy and defense equipment.

In the latest iteration in the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, the US is now offering Ukraine “guarantees similar to those under Article 5 of the NATO treaty.” It’s an attempt to bridge the Ukrainian demand for strong security guarantees with Russia’s demand that Ukraine does not become a NATO member.

It’s a take-it-or-leave-it offer, and one can certainly wonder whether “similar guarantees” are sufficient for Ukraine to sign up to any deal – especially after Treasury Secretary Bessent undermined Article 5 when he stated that the US would not send troops to Europe, but only sell weapons, if Russia were to attack.

Nonetheless, oil markets have been drifting lower as peace talks continue and a global glut hangs over the market. WTI fell almost 6% in the past four sessions, hitting $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021. However, oil prices came off their fresh lows after President Trump ramped up pressure on Venezuela with a blockade of tankers.

Yesterday also saw a busy data calendar as US statistics offices are still working through their backlog of data, after the shutdown disrupted many official data releases.

This made for a very unusual Employment Report, and not only because it was released on a Tuesday. The BLS made up for missing the October report. So, we learned that non-farm payrolls declined 105,000 in October and that payrolls recovered by 64,000 in November. This means that the labor market has shown little net change since April.

Average hourly earnings for November were softer than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. So the overall picture remains one of a weaker labor market. That supports further monetary easing, but probably not in January. These two months of data were not so weak to instill more urgency in the FOMC.

Moreover, some of the data come with slightly bigger margins of error, as a result of the shutdown. Lack of an October report may have left traders without their entertainment on the first Friday of November. But it left statisticians with bigger problems, such as missing the usual statistical weights for the current report – which are based on prior months. So, they had to adjust their methodology for weighing individual responses into the aggregate employment statistics. Add to that a lower response rate than usual.

By contrast, the response rates for the establishment survey were higher than usual. The collection periods for the October and November surveys were extended due to the shutdown, giving employers more time to respond. This could lead to somewhat smaller revisions to yesterday’s non-farm payroll estimates in the coming months.

Meanwhile, European PMIs were a little weaker than expected. Eurozone activity has been more resilient than expected, and these data suggest that some of this resilience may now be fading. We’ve been expecting a soft patch before Eurozone growth regains momentum in the course of 2026. Nonetheless, the PMI report took some of the sting out of the market’s recent expectations of a potential rate hike by end-2026. That decline in short-term rates caused a modest steepening of the European yield curve.

Rate cut expectations are building in more earnest in sterling money markets. UK inflation undershot expectations again in November. Headline CPI slowed to 3.2% y/y. That’s below the Bank of England’s projection of 3.4% and the weakest print in eight months. Underlying inflation eased too. Core inflation fell to 3.2% y/y, the slowest in nearly two years, while services inflation declined to 4.4% y/y. The Bank also watches food price inflation closely, given its influence on household inflation expectations, and this slowed from 4.9% to 4.2% y/y.

Combined with weak activity data since the summer, rising unemployment, and a slowdown in private sector wage growth, the disinflationary narrative appears to dominate MPC discussions. And risks of persistence are easing. Overall, the data suggest the BoE has been behind the curve.

Tomorrow’s 25bp cut looks to be locked in, and further easing as early as February is starting to look very plausible. We had already penciled in a subsequent cut in February, and we see some downside risks to our forecast of a 3.25% terminal rate for next year, especially if the UK economy fails to recover from the weakness seen in the second half of this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 08:25

Futures Rise For First Time In 4 Days As Oil Rebounds From 4 Year Low

Stock futures are higher but with less than 10 full trading days left in the year, the Santa rally seems increasingly elusive, with traders struggling to find catalysts. The S&P 500 tested a key technical level on Tuesday, coming close to breaking below its 50-DMA. As of 7:15am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, pointing to the first increase in four days for the S&P 500 as investor appetite returned after last week’s tech retreat; Nasdaq contracts +0.4%: Netflix rose 1.7% in premarket trading on bets it will prevail in its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.Amazon rose 2% on report OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon and use its chips. Trading volumes are still relatively high, though will inevitably start to tail off as Christmas approaches. The main action today is in oil, with Brent prices bouncing 2.2% from a four year low back over $60, after Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned tankers going into and leaving Venezuela, while the US is once again considering sanctions on Russia if Putin rejects the proposed Ukraine peace deal. Gold also jumped. 10Y treasury yields rose 3bps to 4.18% and the dollar index was at session highs. US economic calendar blank for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8:15am), Williams (9:05am) and Bostic (12:30pm)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Amazon +1.9% as OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon and use its chips (Tesla +0.3%, Meta +0.3%, Alphabet +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple +0.2%, Nvidia +0.1%)

• Avantor (AVTR) slips 3% after Jefferies cut the life-sciences firm to underperform — a sell equivalent — from hold, citing structural headwinds with “no easy fix.”
• Children’s Place (PLCE) slides 32% after the kids apparel retailer posted third quarter sales that fell 13% from the year-earlier period.
• Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) climbs 7% as the company is in merger discussions with Bankrupt Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
• Hut 8 (HUT) surges 21% after the Bitcoin miner and data center operator signed a 15-year, $7 billion lease with Fluidstack for 245 megawatts of IT capacity at its River Bend data center campus in Louisiana with Google backstopping.
• Lennar (LEN) falls 4% after the homebuilder forecast first quarter orders, deliveries and margins all below expectations, signaling strains on the housing market despite a lower interest rate.
• Netflix (NFLX) rises 1.3% as Warner Bros. Discovery plans to reject Paramount Skydance’s takeover bid due to concerns about financing and other terms. Warner Bros. (WBD) shares are down 1.4%, while Paramount (PSKY) drops 1.8%.
• Worthington Enterprises (WOR) falls 8% after the maker of aluminum propane cylinders posted fiscal second-quarter profit that disappointed.

Tuesday’s payrolls signaled a cooling jobs market, but not weak enough to prompt major changes to rate-cut bets in the near term. Hiring was concentrated in education and health care, as well as AI-related construction, but not much else, wrote Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong. The CPI data due Thursday will be the last major steer of the year. Still, investors are awaiting that report mostly with a sense of apathy, with options traders betting the S&P 500 will swing just 0.7% in either direction, according to data compiled by Barclays. That’s sharply lower than the 1% average realized move spurred by 12 reports through September. There are also signs that the recent rotation trade is fading, with the Russell 2000 index of small caps down 2.8% over three sessions.

“Yesterday’s November US jobs data is more of a confirmation of the prior expected rate path rather than a new catalyst,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Global Services.

Investors are increasingly looking for opportunities beyond the US tech giants that have underpinned the S&P 500’s 16% rally so far this year. A growing chorus of Wall Street analysts are making bullish predictions for 2026 after three straight interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and as nations from the US to Germany boost spending.

“I would expect more volatility because investors are differentiating more and they are not just playing one sector,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance. “But the combination of trend-like growth, slightly lower interest rates, fiscal impulse coming through and importantly, a significant capital spending cycle kicking in, will work its way through the economy.”

Trump’s ban on sanctioned oil tankers going into and leaving Venezuela marked a major escalation and follows the seizure of an oil tanker last week by US forces off the country’s coast. Brent crude jumped 2% to $60.11 a barrel, advancing from the lowest level since 2021.

The US is also preparing for a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector should President Vladimir Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially adding to the uptick in geopolitical tensions.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index gained 0.4%, led by the energy sector with BP and Shell rallying more than 2%, tracking gains in oil prices after Bloomberg reported the US is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. The UK’s FTSE 100 outperforms after inflation fell more than expected, cementing expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Bank of England on Thursday. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• DBV shares soar as much as 47% in Paris, to the highest level since September 2022, after the company’s experimental skin patch met its primary endpoint in a late-stage trial for peanut-allergic children.
• HSBC shares advance as much as 3.6% to a fresh high after KBW upgraded the lender’s shares to outperform from market perform on the strength of its Hong Kong business.
• Serco shares jump as much as 5.6%, touching their highest level in more than 11 years, after the outsourcing services provider boosted its earnings guidance and introduced targets for 2026 that also exceeded expectations.
• IPF shares rise as much as 8.7%, trading at their highest level since 2019, after the company extended the deadline for BasePoint to make a firm takeover offer.
• Ariston shares gain as much as 6% after the Italian white goods and heating firm agreed to buy energy business Riello.
• EnQuest shares rise as much as 6.1% after the oil and gas company said annual production should hit or exceed the top-end of its guidance range.
• Hansa Biopharma shares plummet as much as 28% in Stockholm, the most since 2023, after disappointing results from a trial aimed at improving kidney function in patients with anti-glomerular basement membrane disease.
• Suedzucker shares fall as much as 4.4% to the lowest level since 2008 after the German sugar producer said it expects a slight decrease in FY26/27 revenues as “highly challenging” conditions in the market persist.
• Bunzl shares drop as much as 7.7%, the most since April, after the value-added distributor gave guidance for 2026 including moderate revenue growth and operating margin slightly down year-on-year.

Asian stocks edged higher, buoyed by a rebound in technology shares. Benchmarks rose in South Korea and Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3%, snapping a two-day decline. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Tencent Holdings were among the biggest boosts to the gauge’s climb. Shares also rebounded in mainland China.  Sentiment around AI valuations appears to have steadied following a two-day slide that dragged the regional tech gauge down by more than 4% through Tuesday. Investors are once again focused on earnings that may provide further catalyst for shares.  Asia is seeing a busy day for stock market listings on Wednesday. Among the debuts, Chinese chipmaker MetaX Integrated Circuits Shanghai Co. soared 693%, while Japan’s SBI Shinsei Bank Ltd. and Indonesia’s digital banking firm PT Super Bank Indonesia also surged. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s largest licensed cryptocurrency exchange HashKey Holdings Ltd. fell on its first day of trading

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index climbs 0.3%. Cable drops 0.7% to $1.3330 with sterling at the bottom of the G-10 FX leaderboard after inflation data came in below expectations. The yen also underperforms, falling 0.5% against the greenback. The Indian rupee jumped 1% after the central bank stepped in to support it after it hit a record low amid the country's aggressive easing policies.

In rates, UK government bonds gapped higher at the open after headline, core and service CPI readings were lower-than-expected in November. Gains have pared but UK 10-year yields are still down 4 bps at 4.48%.

In commodities, WTI crude futures rise 2.4% to $56.60 a barrel while Brent crude jumped 2.2% to $60.24 a barrel, advancing from the lowest level since 2021. Trump's Venezuela move helped send gold above $4,330 an ounce, pushing it close to the record $4,381 set in October. Other precious metals were also gaining, with silver climbing to a record above $66 an ounce and platinum hitting the highest since 2008.

Bitcoin slid 1% to trade around $86,868 as the token headed for the fourth annual decline in its history.

US economic calendar blank for the session. Fed speaker slate includes Waller (8:15am), Williams (9:05am) and Bostic (12:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.1%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.17%
• VIX -0.3 points at 16.18
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1208.16
• euro -0.2% at $1.1718
• WTI crude +2.5% at $56.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump on Tues ordered a “complete blockage” of sanctioned oil tankers from accessing Venezuela and labeled the Maduro gov’t a “terrorist regime.” Brent jumped and rose further on the news of potentially more Russia sanctions. RTRS
• The US is preparing a fresh round of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector should Vladimir Putin reject a peace agreement with Ukraine, according to people familiar. The new measures may be unveiled as soon as this week. BBG
• Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as this week that would fast-track reclassification of cannabis, according to NBC News.
• US told China it's ready to defend interests in Indo-Pacific: BBG
• Trump officials privately raise doubts about Hassett for Fed chair, with his critics saying he has not been effective as head of the National Economic Council, playing little part in driving policies: Politico
• Amazon (AMZN +166bps premkt) is in talks to invest more then $10bn in OpenAI and sell it more chips and computing power, in the latest investment deal tying the AI start up to its infrastructure providers. FT
• Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is withdrawing from the takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery. The studio plans to reject Paramount’s hostile bid, people familiar said, as its board sees the Netflix deal providing greater value. BBG
• Japan’s exports gained 6.1% last month, topping estimates, with shipments to the US rising for the first time since Trump announced baseline tariffs in April. BBG
• India’s central bank stepped in to support the rupee, propelling it to its biggest gain in seven months. BBG
• India’s central bank governor expects the country’s interest rates to remain low for a “long period” as it enjoys robust economic growth that could soon be boosted by trade pacts being thrashed out with the US and Europe. FT
• UK inflation slipped to the lowest level in eight months, with CPI rising 3.2% in November, less than expected. The pound weakened, and traders saw the data as all but sealing a BOE rate cut Thursday. BBG
• European leaders rallying support for Kyiv say they are working to defend a democratic country, safeguard international law and counter Russian aggression. But there is another motivation rooted in self-interest: Europe believes a deal that favors Moscow risks a wider war that could engulf the whole continent. Cash-drained European capitals fear they would have no other choice but to massively increase military spending and defensive preparations, in the hope of preserving their deterrence. WSJ
• Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter, hawkish dissenter) said job market is cooling at a modest pace. Said: As we go into 2026, optimistic economy will sustain at stabilised rate.

Trade/Tariffs

• The UK Government announces that they are to re-join the EU's Erasmus+ programme in 2027, with the deal including a 30% discount compared to the default terms. The UK and EU set a deadline to agree a food and drink trade deal and carbon markets linkage in 2026. Negotiations on electricity market integration has also been agreed. UK contribution will be about GBP 570mln for 2027.
• UK's EU Relations Minister Thomas-Symonds is expected to announce the UK will rejoin the Erasmus student exchange program at 12:30 GMT, according to POLITICO. The Times said UK was not able to negotiate as large a discount as it wanted from the GBP 120mln/yr that was announced.
• EU diplomats told POLITICO, regarding the Mercosur trade deal, "If a compromise emerges on safeguards, EU ambassadors are expected to vote on the overall deal (Mercosur) on Friday".
• South Korea is to push for service sector FTA with China and CPTPP affiliation for export momentum, according to Yonhap.
• China commerce ministry said the UN convention on cargo documents fully demonstrates China's determination and actions to uphold true multilateralism, and strive to provide public goods globally.
• US and Japan are to consider projects that may tap the USD 550bln fund, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump posted "Numbers recently released show that TARIFFS have reduced the Trade Deficit of the United States by more than half. This is larger than anyone, except ME, projected, and will only get stronger in the near future". Full post: "Numbers recently released show that TARIFFS have reduced the Trade Deficit of the United States by more than half. This is larger than anyone, except ME, projected, and will only get stronger in the near future. Everybody should pray that the United States Supreme Court has the Wisdom and Genius to allow Tariffs to GUARD our National Security, and our Financial Freedom! There are Evil, America hating Forces against us. We can not let them prevail. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!".

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were indecisive with the region lacking conviction following the uninspiring lead from Wall Street where price action was choppy as participants digested a deluge of mixed data releases. ASX 200 was subdued in the absence of bullish drivers and as gains in the mining, materials and resources sectors were offset by weakness in energy, defensives and financials. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses amid a choppy currency and as participants digested the better-than-expected Japanese machinery orders and exports data, but with upside limited as an anticipated BoJ rate hike looms. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially traded indecisively in a narrow range with little fresh macro catalysts from China, and after the PBoC drained liquidity in its open market operations. The bourses later climbed to session highs.

Top Asian News

• India's Finance Minister said bringing down India's debt to GDP ratio will be a core priority for the government for the next fiscal year, adds high debt to GDP ratio in some Indian states is a cause of worry.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said Japan needs to strengthen its capacity through proactive fiscal policy rather than excessive fiscal tightening. said:. Sustainable fiscal policy and the social welfare system will be achieved by reflating the economy, improving corporate profits and raising household income through wage gains that boost tax revenues. Fiscal spending will be strategic rather than a reckless expansion.
• Australia Treasurer Chalmers said FY27/28 budget deficit seen rising to AUD 32.6bln.
• Former BoJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe said BoJ must raise the neutral interest rate through fiscal policy and growth strategies, adds the neutral interest rate would rise if demand for funds increases. said:. If the neutral rate rises due to fiscal policy and growth strategies, it would be natural for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The Bank of Japan should avoid premature rate hikes and excessive adjustment of monetary support given the level of the neutral rate. Sanaenomics carries over elements of Abenomics, but focuses more on strengthening the supply side of the economy.
• BoK Governor Rhee said will make sure outbound investment to US from a trade deal doesn't hurt Forex stability. said:Need to make MPS hedging strategies more flexible and less transparent to curb herd-like behaviour.
• Bank of Korea said 2026 inflation could exceed forecasts if KRW remains weak against USD.
• Confederation of Japan Automobile Workers’ Union president Kaneko said he’s concerned that a BoJ rate hike on Friday could weigh on companies’ ability to raise wages next fiscal year. said:“If the yen sharply strengthened after Friday’s decision, it could affect corporate sentiment”.
• South Korea forex authority said it resumes currency swap with the Bank of Korea.

European equities are trading mostly firmer. The FTSE 100 (+1.4%) is the outperformer following cooler-than-expected CPI, which increased the odds of a December cut to near 100%. European sectors are mixed. Leading sectors are Basic Resources (+1.1%), Banks (+1.1%) and Energy (+1.1%). Sentiment for Basic Resources has been underpinned by an uptick in metal prices. Energy has been lifted by crude prices nursing the prior day's losses, fuelled by geopolitical tension between the US and Venezuela after US President Trump's announcement of a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Furthermore, a Bloomberg report on potential Russian energy sanctions lifted crude to highs.

Top European News

• EU Climate Commissioner said they are not exempting any countries from the Carbon levy, though the UK could be exempt but only after UK carbon market linked to EU's.
• EU Commission proposes extending carbon border levy to downstream steel and aluminium-heavy products. Would also apply it to imported washing machines and machinery. Carbon borders levy revenues from 2026-27 for fund to support EU industries. Proposes system to prevent circumvention of carbon border levy, including by applying default country emissions values if companies provide unreliable data.
• French Socialists (PS) have reportedly outlined conditions that would enable them to abstain instead of voting against the Finance Bill, via Politico citing various press; specific demands incl. EUR 10bln in additional spending via new financing streams.
• UK PM Starmer pushes back on delayed defence spending plan and has asked military chiefs to rework aspects of the defence investment plan, according to FT.
• Germany is set to approve EUR 50bln in military purchases, according to FT.
• New South Wales Premier Chris Minns said to recall state parliament to discuss legislation on firearms which will cap number of firearms that can be owned and will reclassify other types of guns, as well as reduce magazine capacity for shotgun.

FX

• The USD is stronger against all G10FX peers following Tuesday's US data deluge, along with broad weakness across other majors, especially GBP and JPY. The session ahead sees comments from Fed second-in-command Williams, Fed Chair candidate Waller, and 2027 voter Bostic. There are no notable data releases until Thursday, November US CPI. DXY trades within a 98.17-98.64 range, with further gains in the greenback capped by its 100DMA at 98.62.
• EUR is a little lower vs the broadly stronger USD. The single currency was little moved following the German Ifo metrics (slightly shy of exp.) and EZ HICP Finals which remained unrevised. Currently within a 1.1704 to 1.1752 range.
• GBP underperforms vs G10 peers. Policymakers on Threadneedle Street this morning will welcome the cooler-than-expected UK inflation print for November, aligning with the BoE's view that inflation had peaked and coming in at 3.2% against the expected 3.5%, lower than October's 3.6% print. GBP, against the EUR and USD has been weakening since the 07:00 data, with further moves likely to encounter resistance at the 0.8795 and 1.33 levels respectively. Following the data, markets have moved to price an additional 10bps of easing in 2026, moving from 58bps (Tuesday) to 66bps. For the BoE confab on Thursday, expectations rose from c. 91% to a fully priced 25bps cut.
• USD/JPY is lower today. Despite better-than-expected Japanese exports and machinery orders, the stronger USD, firmer energy benchmarks (on the day), and technicals have weighed on the haven in light newsflow. Remarks from Japanese Government panel member Nagahama did little to move the JPY, he said the BoJ's monetary policy appears to be heavily influenced by FX moves. Since the beginning of the European session, and partially coinciding with the aforementioned comments, the pair breached the psychological 155 level, last crossed on Monday. As such, USD/JPY trades within 154.52-155.59 parameters. Levels to be aware of include 21 and 50DMAs, at 155.95 and 154.25, respectively.

Fixed Income

• Gilts are the clear outperformer this morning. Gapped higher by 73 ticks, boosted by a cooler-than-expected November CPI series. A release that cements a December cut with markets now assigning a 99% chance of such a move (vs 91% pre-release). Ahead of the data, sell-side analysts generally viewed a 5-4 vote split as the consensus; the release today could now see the split shift a bit more dovishly. The current hawks are Mann, Pill, Greene and Lombardelli; the latter has been viewed as the most likely candidate to join Bailey in cutting rates in December, with Chief Economist Pill perhaps the other member to watch. Back to price action, Gilts are currently higher by 50 ticks and at the lower end of a 91.38 to 91.78 range.
• USTs are a touch lower this morning, pulling back after ultimately settling in the green on Tuesday. Currently trading towards the lower end of a narrow 112-11 to 112-17+ range. Ahead, US data is lacking (CPI tomorrow); before that, the POTUS will deliver remarks where he could potentially outline new policies for the new year.
• Bunds were essentially unchanged throughout overnight trade, but then caught a bid following the release of the UK’s inflation report (see below). The German benchmark swung from troughs to peaks following the release, but have since scaled back towards the midpoint of a 127.53 to 127.79 range. No real move on the German Ifo data, which was broadly slightly shy of expectations, another disappointing release from the region. From an inflationary standpoint, a recent Bloomberg article suggested that the US is planning new energy sanctions on Russia, if they reject a peace deal with Ukraine. This sparked upside in the crude complex, putting the German benchmark under very slight pressure – albeit within ranges.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have completely reversed the losses seen throughout Tuesday’s as the US blocks sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of Venezuela and recent reports, from Bloomberg sources, that the US are preparing new Russian energy sanctions if Russia rejects a Ukraine peace deal. Kremlin recently said that it had not yet seen the report, but highlighted that any sanctions will harm attempts to mend relations. As soon as the Bloomberg reports came out regarding new Russian energy sanctions, WTI lifted from USD 55.95 to a 56.74/bbl session high while Brent rose from USD 59.60 to a 60.40/bbl session high.
• Spot XAU continued to grind higher throughout the APAC session but remains well-contained within Friday’s range of USD 4257-5354/oz. After opening just above USD 4300/oz, XAU gradually traded higher and briefly extended beyond Tuesday’s high of USD 4335/oz, peaking at USD 4342/oz, before falling back into Tuesday’s range. XAG has, in recent sessions, dragged the yellow metal higher as investors look for cheaper alternatives to gold. XAG extended to a new ATH of USD 66.52/oz in the APAC session.
• 3M LME Copper bid higher throughout the Asia-Pac session, trending from USD 11.62k/t to a peak of USD 11.79k/t, in-line with the rest of the metals space. The red metal has slightly pulled back as the European session gets underway, dipping to a trough of USD 11.7k/t, but gains remain mostly in-tact as trade continues.
• Kazakhstan Deputy Energy Minister said Kazakhstan oil production in the first 11 months of 2025 totalled 91.9mln tons and exports were 73.4mln tons.
• Chevron Corp (CVX) spokesperson said operations in Venezuela continue without disruption following Trump's blockade order.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.3mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillate +2.5mln (exp. +1.2mln), Gasoline -4.8mln (exp. +2.1mln), Cushing -0.5mln.

Geopolitics

• Russia's Kremlin said it is not expecting US envoy Witkoff to come to Moscow this week. As soon as the US are ready, they will inform Moscow about their talks with Ukraine.
• US readies new Russian energy sanctions in the scenario that Russia rejects a Ukraine peace deal, according to Bloomberg sources; could potentially be announced as early as this week. Considering options such as targeting vessels in Russia’s "shadow fleet" of tankers used to transport Moscow’s oil. Crude benchmarks saw immediate upside. WTI lifted from USD 55.95 to a 56.68/bbl session high. Brent rose from USD 59.60 to a 60.33/bbl session high.
• Ukraine's military strikes Russian oil refinery in Krasnodar region.
• EU ambassadors convene at 08:00 GMT, to talk on frozen Russian assets; a diplomat told POLITICO it was "still quite early". Belgian Prime Minister De Wever is expected to float a legal workaround at Thursday’s summit that would allow joint EU borrowing for Ukraine, according to four diplomats. POLITICO writes that EU joint borrowing was first aired by ECB's Lagarde, and since received support from Italy, though the idea has since been disregarded with officials dismissing it as legally unviable.
• Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Krasnodar region injures two people and cuts power to parts of the region, according to regional authorities.
• Israeli forces conduct raids in Al Tuffah and Al Zaytoun neighbourhoods east of Gaza City, according to Al Jazeera.

US Event Calendar

• 4:00 am: Sep New Home Sales MoM, est. -10.82%, prior 20.5%
• 4:00 am: Sep New Home Sales, est. 713.5k, prior 800k
• 4:00 am: Sep Housing Starts MoM, est. 1.61%
• 4:00 am: Sep P Building Permits, est. 1350k, prior 1330k
• 4:00 am: Sep Housing Starts, est. 1328k, prior 1307k
• 4:00 am: Sep Construction Spending MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
• 7:00 am: Dec 12 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 4.8%

Central Banks (All Times ET):

• 8:15 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 9:05 am: Fed’s Williams Delivers Opening Remarks
• 12:30 pm: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Moderated Discussion

DB' Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The mood in markets hasn't been very "Christmassy" this week with yesterday seeing the S&P 500 (-0.24%) post a third consecutive decline thanks to a US jobs report that could be interpreted in whichever way your biases were. The report was always expected to be choppy given the DOGE cuts and the government shutdown, but the rise in unemployment was even bigger than expected, reaching a four-year high of 4.6%. So on balance, investors interpreted the report in a dovish light, and Treasuries rallied in a choppy post payroll session, as investors priced in more cuts for 2026. Moreover, that risk-off mood was clear across the board, with US HY spreads (+5bps) reaching their highest in three weeks. And we saw Brent crude oil prices (-2.71%) close beneath $60/bbl for the first time since February 2021, at just $58.92/bbl, though they are +1.21% higher overnight after Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers in Venezuela. The move has taken Treasuries yields back higher too.  

In terms of more detail on that jobs report, the main headline was that payrolls were down by -105k in October, before rebounding by +64k in November (vs. +50k expected). That October decline was driven by a collapse in government payrolls of -157k, marking their biggest monthly slump since the pandemic-driven losses in May 2020. But it was hard for markets to take too much optimism from the November recovery, as the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% (vs. 4.5% expected), and the broader U6 measure (which adds in the underemployed and those marginally attached to the labour force) hit 8.7%, the highest since August 2021. Diluting some of the concern over higher unemployment was that this was driven by re-entrants to the labour market rather than permanent job losses. Another consolation was the resilience of private payrolls, up by +52k in October and +69k in November, suggesting that things were a bit stronger away from the DOGE cuts and the shutdown. The 3-month moving average for private payrolls is in fact now at a 6-month high.

Ultimately however, the higher unemployment rate confirmed existing fears about a softer labour market, and investors priced in more Fed rate cuts for 2026. Indeed, the number of cuts priced by the December 2026 meeting was up +2.4bps on the day to 59bps. And in turn, Treasuries rallied across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-1.5bps) down to 3.49%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) fell to 4.15%. Those moves came amid ongoing headlines surrounding the Fed Chair nomination, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Trump was going to interview Fed Governor Chris Waller today. The latest standings on Polymarket put NEC Chair Kevin Hasset at around 53%, and comfortably back in the lead, ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at 26% and with Waller up to 16% from 7% the previous day.

Nevertheless, equities struggled against this backdrop, with the S&P 500 (-0.24%) having now posted 3 declines since its record high last Thursday. Those moves were broad-based, with around three-quarters of the index losing ground yesterday. Indeed, the losses would’ve been larger were it not for outperformance by the Mag-7 (+0.82%), which were led by Tesla (+3.07%) reaching a new record high for first time since last December. By contrast, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down -0.71%, with energy stocks (-2.98%) leading the decline given the latest slump in oil prices.
Brent crude fell -2.71% to $58.92/bbl, its lowest since February 2021, though it is +1.21% higher overnight after President Trump posted last night that he was ordering a “BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela”. This marks the latest move by the US to raise pressure on the Maduro regime. The overnight oil rise is also helping 10yr Treasury yields (+2.5bps) reverse some of yesterday’s decline.

In Europe, markets had followed a very similar pattern yesterday, with a risk-off move that pushed equities and bond yields lower. In part, that was driven by an underwhelming set of flash PMIs for December, with the Euro Area composite reading falling back from its two-year high in November to 51.9 (vs. 52.6 expected). So that added to fears that the economy had lost some momentum into year-end, and the STOXX 600 (-0.47%) fell back, along with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-1.7bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps).

Admittedly, European assets were supported by signs of progress on the Ukraine negotiations, and the impact was clear in assets sensitive to the conflict. In addition to the decline in oil, the 10yr yield on Ukraine’s dollar bond (-28.4bps) fell back to 13.77%, its lowest level since March, whilst the STOXX Aerospace & Defense index (-1.79%) underperformed. Yet despite hopes for a ceasefire in the coming months, that still wasn’t enough to outweigh the broader negativity for European equities from the US jobs report and the weaker PMIs.

One exception to that pattern came in the UK, where gilts struggled after yesterday’s data leant in a hawkish direction. For instance, wage growth was up by +4.7% in the three months to October (vs. +4.4% expected), and the flash composite PMI also moved up to 52.1 in December (vs. 51.5 expected). So collectively, that suggested inflationary pressures might be stronger than thought, and 10yr gilt yields (+2.3bps) moved back up to 4.52%. Remember as well that we’ll get the UK CPI print for November shortly after this goes to press, so the focus will be on whether that continues its downward trajectory. Then the BoE meeting tomorrow.  

This morning, Asian equity markets are stabilising, led by the KOSPI, which is up +0.95%. The Hang Seng (+0.22%) and the Nikkei (+0.15%) are also higher. In mainland China, both the CSI (+0.58%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) are also trading in positive territory, fueled by expectations of additional fiscal stimulus from Beijing, especially in the wake of several weaker-than-expected economic indicators for November. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia is bucking this regional trend, currently down -0.16%. US equity futures are down a tenth.  

In Japan, exports in November recorded their fastest growth in nine months this year, increasing by an impressive 6.1% y/y. This significantly surpassed market expectations of a +5.0% rise and was also a marked improvement from the 3.6% increase observed in the preceding month. This strong export performance was underpinned by a +3.6% increase in goods shipped to Western Europe and an +8.8% surge in exports to the United States, Japan's second-largest trading partner. Notably, this marks the first time that exports from Japan to the US have increased since March. Concurrently, imports into Japan rose by +1.3% in November, which was below the anticipated +2.5% increase. As a result, Japan's trade balance for November amounted to a surplus of 322.3 billion yen, far exceeding the projected 72.6 billion yen surplus and representing a significant turnaround from the 226.1 billion yen deficit recorded in the prior month.

Elsewhere yesterday, we had a few other data releases, including the delayed US retail sales for October. They were unchanged (vs. +0.1% expected), but the measure excluding autos and gas stations was up +0.5% (vs. +0.4% expected), and retail control, which feeds into GDP, was up +0.8%, much higher than the +0.4% expected. Meanwhile in Germany, the expectations component of the ZEW survey moved up to a 5-month high of 45.8 (vs. 38.4 expected), although the current situation fell back to a 7-month low of -81.0 (vs. -80.0 expected).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 08:11

Capital-Hungry OpenAI Discussing $10 Billion Investment From Amazon

Amazon is in talks with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI to invest more than $10 billion, The Information reported, citing multiple people familiar with the discussions. The proposed round would value OpenAI at half a trillion dollars, underlining just how capital-hungry Sam Altman’s chatbot company has become, as it expects to burn through more than $100 billion over the next four years.

The Amazon investment would help OpenAI fund large-scale cloud-computing commitments and potentially broaden Amazon’s role in the AI sphere.

Here's more from the report:

OpenAI last month announced it would spend $38 billion renting servers from AWS over the next seven years, making AWS one of at least five cloud providers OpenAI uses to develop its artificial intelligence.

The deal could also help Amazon find a new customer for its Trainium AI server chips, which compete with the Nvidia AI chips that OpenAI primarily uses today. As part of the deal under discussion, OpenAI plans to use Trainium chips, two people said.

Amazon has discussed potential commercial partnerships, including OpenAI’s plan to turn ChatGPT into a shopping and referral platform and to sell an enterprise version of ChatGPT to Amazon. However, that remains unclear because Amazon will not be able to sell OpenAI models to its cloud customers, as Microsoft, which owns about 27% of OpenAI equity, has secured an exclusive right to do so.

The people noted that Amazon financing could prompt additional fundraising rounds with more investors for the capital-hungry chatbot company, which is expected to burn more than $100 billion over the next four years.  

OpenAI told investors months ago that its 2027 fundraising target is $90 billion, earmarked for investments in talent, servers, and data centers. 

The Information noted, "That could theoretically include an initial public offering." 

Ahead of the new year, spending commitments for Altman's company have been piling up. OpenAI plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on Microsoft and Oracle - something we have described as "circular." It also struck deals to rent servers from Google, a major rival in developing AI, and AI cloud provider CoreWeave.

Let's see how the circular part looks on paper: 

OpenAI has also said it will invest billions in developing its own data centers and may rent servers from other companies.

The Information noted, "For Amazon, an OpenAI deal would mirror Microsoft's approach, its fiercest cloud-services rival. After Microsoft made large equity investments in OpenAI, it recently announced an investment in rival AI developer Anthropic and agreed to use that company’s AI."

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 07:45

Euroclear: The Line Europe Can't Cross Without Breaking Global Trust

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Euroclear and the Looming Breach of Trust

The alliance financing the war in Ukraine is facing a new problem. Seven members of the European Union want to block the expropriation of the Russian central bank assets held at Euroclear. This puts the continuation of war financing at risk. At the same time, the specter of a financial crisis looms—one that would once again leave taxpayers footing the bill.

The negotiation marathon between representatives of Ukraine, the EU and the United Kingdom, with a US delegation acting as mediator, continues in Berlin. As usual, it is accompanied by familiar phrases about “progress” on the road to peace and assurances that roughly 90 percent of the target has already been reached.

How much weight this interim result actually deserves will become clear in the coming days. Expect a frantic ramp-up of the propaganda machine, drones over airports (and over Wolfram Weimer’s residence), and growing pressure on US President Donald Trump. The militarily precarious situation of Ukraine’s armed forces is now colliding with an almost equally dramatic financial situation among Kyiv’s creditors.

Everything points to mounting pressure to cut the Gordian knot—sooner rather than later—as war costs on both sides threaten to spiral out of control.

This brings the latest developments in the debate over the expropriation of the Russian central bank and its assets parked at Euroclear back into sharp focus.

A Critical Demarcation Line

Euroclear could turn into a personal Waterloo for EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She is working at full throttle to convert the current crisis into a massive expansion of power for Brussels—and thus for her Commission.

Hungary, Slovakia and Belgium—already outspoken critics of expropriating Russian assets—are now joined by Italy, Bulgaria, Malta and Cyprus. Resistance to Brussels’ escalation push is growing by the day.

Notably, this resistance coincides with a clear shift in timing. Since the United States effectively withdrew from financing Ukraine, Europe’s financial reality has come into view without cosmetic filters. Without access to roughly €210 billion in Russian assets—about €25 billion of which are spread across various EU states—continued financing of this war of attrition appears barely feasible.

All major creditors—Germany, France and the United Kingdom—have long overstretched their budgets and are running new debt levels between four and six percent. The Ukraine project is on the brink of fiscal collapse.

The Illusion of Expropriation as a Lifeline

What is being attempted is as simple as it is dangerous. These assets—partly government bonds, partly matured bond holdings in foreign currencies—are to be used as collateral for further loans. Europe is already trapped in a debt spiral and is tapping every remaining source of funding. Even the enemy is no longer off-limits for the London-Brussels tandem.

Observers with a sensitivity for political phraseology and grandiosity understood as early as April 2022 what was unfolding: in a state of euphoric overconfidence, decision-makers catastrophically miscalculated and constructed a scenario in which a defeated Russia would be forced to pay for the entire war. This would have allowed Europe to neatly extract its own banks—deeply entangled in Ukraine’s financing—from the equation.

History offers a familiar pattern: bankers and politicians working hand in hand, this time in Kyiv. Many were already anticipating the day of Putin’s submission, followed by regime change in Moscow and the launch of large-scale extraction of Russia’s immense raw-material wealth. Europe’s banking system would have been recapitalized to the rooftops, and the energy problem solved once and for all.

That calculation has clearly failed. Instead, the taxpayer will bear the losses.

Ukraine as a Systemic Risk

Without credit guarantees, Ukraine would already be insolvent. A disorderly collapse of the state would hit the European banking system like a nuclear detonation. There is no realistic way around the public sector eventually absorbing these massive loan liabilities.

This inevitably brings the debate over expanding Eurobonds—formally prohibited under EU law—back to center stage, potentially reintroduced outright as European war bonds.

With the “NextGenerationEU” program, this supposedly forbidden practice has already become de facto reality. Brussels has raised €800 billion on capital markets through this mechanism. These funds fuel the EU’s bloated subsidy machine and are now structurally embedded in its power architecture, always backstopped by the ECB.

Brussels is already acting as a sovereign bond issuer in its own right, further increasing member states’ liability exposure and debt levels. Europe has maneuvered itself into both a geopolitical and financial dead end—an outcome that has been foreseeable for years.

Euroclear and the Looming Breach of Trust

The chronic reality denial and embedded incompetence of EU and UK political leadership defy rational explanation. All the more notable is the emerging resistance around Euroclear—even as Brussels searches for ways to force the decision through by simple majority if necessary.

There is reason for cautious optimism that countries like Italy understand what expropriating Russian central bank assets at Euroclear would mean for the eurozone’s financial stability. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s initiative to discreetly safeguard Italy’s central-bank gold against potential ECB access underscores that Rome knows exactly what is at stake. Italy would be well positioned for a potential reboot of a sovereign currency.

The damage caused by expropriating Russian assets would be maximal: a financial super-GAU, a total loss of credibility and of the merchant-law principles indispensable to banking and international transactions. The entire global financial system—transaction settlement and custodial asset holding—rests on trust: on the absolute stability of its core pillars.

Institutions like Euroclear are among those pillars. They do not merely safeguard international transaction flows—they make them possible in the first place. Once this foundation is damaged, far more than a political signal is at risk. The stability of the entire system is on the line.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 07:20

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.38 percent from 6.33 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

"Buy Nicotine, Energy Drink, Candy Stocks": Goldman Tells Clients Get Ready For Party In USA 

Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, told clients Tuesday that, after consumer staples' underperformance in 2025, it is time to buy nicotine, energy drink, candy, and beauty stocks heading into 2026 as a stronger consumer backdrop emerges.

Herzog wrote:

Our View -- 2025 has been another year of underperformance by Consumer Staples with all but Nicotine stocks lagging the market as concerns around the health of the US consumer (owing to macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, tariffs, layoffs, etc.) which weighed on consumption trends and drove value-seeking behavior amongst consumers during the year.

Heading into 2026, we expect a more constructive US consumer backdrop (esp. middle-income cohorts) given a pickup in real income growth (aided by job growth, tax cuts, and fading tariff-related inflation) to support a discretionary over defensive approach, which will likely weigh on Staples' performance again next year. Irrespective of Staples' trajectory, we see an encouraging backdrop for stock picking in 2026. We continue to encourage investors to put new money to work in stocks with exposure to categories with attractive and profitable growth that should outpace broader Staples such as energy drinks, nicotine, candy, and beauty.

Herzog even noted that next year could be considered "the year of beer stocks":

Furthermore, we believe 2026 could be the year of beer stocks as we expect headwinds to abate and see a few tailwinds such as the lapping of easy comps, better weather (we hope), and increased consumption occasions given a trifecta of events next year including the FIFA World Cup, the Olympics, and the 250th anniversary of the US, which we believe should support greater beer consumption in the year.

Amid the growing specter of a "K-shaped" economy, core retail sales growth was strong in October. Whether that strength reflects inflation or real economic growth, the consumer is holding up in aggregate. With tailwinds expected to emerge in the economy early next year, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently outlined, Herzog's bullish call to buy nicotine, energy drink, candy, and beauty stocks appears to reflect that improving backdrop.

Here is Herzog's bull call (summary):

• Market share gainers and strong topline performers: Philip Morris International and Monster Beverage

• Where bearishness appears overdone: PepsiCo, e.l.f. Beauty, Celsius Holdings, Hershey, and Sprouts Farmers Market

• Beer recovery beneficiaries: Constellation Brands and Molson Coors

• Growth-advantaged emerging market exposure: Philip Morris International, Mondelez International, and Colgate-Palmolive

• Easing cost pressure beneficiary: Hershey

• GLP-1 and better-for-you positioning: Sprouts Farmers Market

Is next year going to be like .... ?

For the full note and a much more granular breakdown of this bull case, ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read it in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 06:55

US, Mexico Reach Agreement To Fix Tijuana River Sewage Crisis: EPA

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration has signed a new binational agreement with Mexico, advancing efforts to solve a decades-long sewage crisis plaguing residents both north and south of the transnational Tijuana River.

Trash lines the beaches near the Tijuana River mouth outside of San Diego, Calif., on Sept. 19, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said on Dec. 15 that the United States and Mexico have signed a “historic new agreement” called Minute 333. The binational agreement saw both nations agree to additional actions that the EPA said will “progress to permanently and urgently end the decades-long Tijuana River sewage crisis.”

The majority of the 120-mile Tijuana River lies south of the U.S.–Mexico border in the Mexican state of Baja California. Only the last five miles are on the U.S. side of the border, flowing to San Diego and emptying into the Pacific Ocean. The San Diego City Council first declared a state of emergency because of the pollution—ranging from raw sewage to industrial runoff—in 1993.

A list of actions outlined in the new agreement includes Mexico developing a water infrastructure plan for Tijuana within six months, creating plans to ensure the proper operation and maintenance of critical systems, and determining the feasibility of a new ocean outfall for the San Antonio de los Buenos Wastewater Treatment Plant, as well as expanding the plant’s capacity by at least 25 million gallons per day (MGD).

The plant is currently operational after being shut down due to long-term disrepair from 2015 until early 2025. It currently has a capacity of 18 MGD, or about 800 liters per second, but receives 40–45 MGD, leading to sewage overflows, according to the EPA.

All plans are to account for future population growth in Tijuana, a key component that was missing from previous agreements made prior to the Trump administration being in office, the EPA said.

Other actions include Mexico’s agreement to construct a sediment basin near the international boundary at Matadero Canyon, also known as Smuggler’s Gulch, before the 2026–2027 rainy season, and a Tecolote-La Gloria Wastewater Treatment Plant in Tijuana, which is 5 miles south of the U.S.–Mexico border, by December 2028. The plant will have a capacity of 3 MGD and treat wastewater that is currently flowing untreated into the Pacific Ocean in Mexico, causing pollution issues on both sides of the border.

Across the region, deterioration of Tijuana’s water treatment infrastructure, compounded by the city’s fast-growing population, has created a health crisis in recent years. In 2015, Mexico’s San Antonio de los Buenos Wastewater Treatment Facility broke down, which led to the daily release of millions of gallons of untreated sewage, trash, and industrial waste into the Tijuana River.

Residents around San Diego have faced major water quality and public health concerns, with the transboundary pollution from Mexico causing the release of noxious gases such as hydrogen sulfide and hydrogen cyanide from the Tijuana River. Residents in affected communities were advised to use air purifiers and filters.

Trash builds up along the Tijuana River outside of San Diego, Calif., on Sept. 19, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

San Diego’s beaches have been closed, and even Naval in-water training has been suspended due to dangerously high concentrations of bacteria from the river entering the Pacific Ocean.

“Through this agreement, a set of technical, financial, and governance actions is established to carry out concrete sanitation works in Tijuana, including new treatment infrastructure and sediment control, which will have a positive impact on public health, the environment, and the beaches of Tijuana and San Diego,” Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

“It should be noted that the United States will assume shared financial responsibility, through the North American Development Bank (NADB), to ensure the operation and maintenance of the infrastructure on the Mexican side and to prevent its deterioration over time.”

According to the EPA, Minute 333 does not obligate “any additional U.S. taxpayer funding, including for Mexican-side projects.” U.S. funds to the NADB for the Border Water Infrastructure Program are appropriated by Congress every year, and are contingent on confirmation that Mexico’s projects—as outlined in the minutes—are on schedule to complete construction.

Water flows along the Tijuana River outside of San Diego, Calif., on Sept. 19, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said that Minute 333 sets the “framework for tremendous steps to be made” and that his agency looks forward to “very quickly hitting the ground running to implement the mutually agreed upon actions.”

“I saw the frustration of San Diego area residents firsthand when I visited in April,” he said. “I promised them a 100 percent solution to this issue, and the Trump EPA is doing its part to deliver.”

Minute 333 builds on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Zeldin and Mexican Environment Minister Alicia Bárcena in July, in which Mexico agreed to expedite the expenditure of $93 million worth of improvements to the Tijuana sewage system and commit to several projects to account for future population growth and maintenance.

It codifies all actions listed in Section 4 of the MOU, which were “specifically designed to account for future population growth in Tijuana and the broader region,” the EPA said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 06:30

Iran's Economy Struggles Amid High Inflation

Since early December 2025, a wave of protests has swept across Iran, ranging from human rights campaigns in major urban areas to labor strikes in industrial hubs.

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiat reports, part of the growing popular unrest concerns the accelerating use of the death penalty by the Iranian regime (more than 1,000 executions documented so far in 2025), while the country's economic situation has significantly deteriorated.

Iran is currently facing one of its most severe economic and social crises of the decade, as the country grapples with near-zero GDP growth, soaring inflation and escalating social and geopolitical tensions.

According to the IMF's latest projection (October 2025), Iran’s real GDP is expected to grow by just 0.6 percent in 2025, a sharp decline from previous years (+3.7 percent in 2024, +5.3 percent in 2023).

Inflation, meanwhile, is forecast to surge to 43.3 percent, one of the highest rates in the world, as the national currency (rial) continues its dramatic depreciation.

You will find more infographics at Statista
 

This grim outlook underscores the depth of Iran’s economic issues, driven by a combination of chronic mismanagement, systemic corruption and the impact of international sanctions.

The escalation of the conflict with Israel and the United States this year has further deteriorated the situation.

After a brief but intense war in June 2025, causing billions of dollars in damage in Iran, the United States imposed additional sanctions, targeting Iran’s oil, banking and shipping sectors.

The reimposition of the United Nations' “snapback” sanctions in late 2025 has also added to the pressure.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 04:15

The Folly Of Establishing A US Military Base In Damascus

Authored by José Niño via The Libertarian Institute

Recent reports indicate the United States is preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in Damascus, allegedly to facilitate a security agreement between Syria and Israel. This development represents yet another misguided expansion of American military overreach in a region where Washington has already caused tremendous damage through decades of failed interventionist policies.

The United States currently operates approximately 750 to 877 military installations across roughly eighty countries worldwide. This staggering number represents about 70 to 85% of all foreign military bases globally. To put this in perspective, the next eighteen countries with foreign bases combined maintain only 370 installations total. Russia has just twenty-nine foreign bases, and China operates merely six. The American empire of bases already dwarfs every other nation combined, and the financial burden is crushing. Washington spends approximately $65 billion annually just to build and maintain these overseas installations, with total spending on foreign bases and personnel reaching over $94 billion per year.

These figures are not abstract accounting entries. They translate directly into American lives placed in volatile environments, as demonstrated by the recent insider attack in the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra, where a purported "ISIS infiltrator" embedded in local government security forces turned his weapon on a joint U.S. Syrian patrol, killing two U.S. soldiers and one U.S. civilian during what was described as a routine field tour. The incident underscores how the sprawling U.S. basing network increasingly exposes American personnel to unpredictable and lethal blowback in unstable theaters far from home.

Syria itself already hosts between 1,500 and 2,000 American troops, primarily concentrated in the northeastern Hasakah province and at the Al Tanf base in the Syrian Desert. The Pentagon recently announced plans to reduce this presence to fewer than 1,000 personnel and consolidated operations from eight installations to just three. Yet now, despite this supposed drawdown, Washington reportedly plans to establish a new presence in Damascus itself, either at Mezzeh Air Base or Al Seen Military Airport. This contradictory expansion reveals the hollow nature of promises to reduce American military commitments abroad.

Since the fall of Bashar al Assad in December 2024, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military and civilian infrastructure while occupying parts of southern Syria including Quneitra and Daraa. Israel has systematically violated the 1974 disengagement agreement and expanded control over buffer zones. These actions align disturbingly well with the Yinon Plan, a 1982 Israeli strategic document by Israeli foreign policy official Oded Yinon that envisions the dissolution of surrounding Arab states into smaller ethnic and religious entities. The plan explicitly calls for fragmenting Syria along its ethnic and religious lines to prevent a strong centralized government that could challenge Israeli interests.

A permanent American military presence in Damascus would effectively serve as a tripwire guaranteeing continued U.S. involvement in securing Israeli strategic objectives in the Levant. Rather than protecting American interests or enhancing national security, such a base would entrench Washington deeper into regional conflicts that have consistently proven disastrous for both American taxpayers and Middle Eastern populations.

The human cost of American intervention in Syria should give any policymaker pause. The Syrian proxy war has resulted in between 617,000 and 656,000 deaths, including civilians, rebels, and government forces. More than 7.4 million people remain internally displaced within Syria, while approximately 6.3 million Syrian refugees live abroad. This catastrophic toll stems partly from Operation Timber Sycamore, the CIA covert program that ran from 2012 to 2017 to train and equip Syrian rebel forces.

Timber Sycamore represented a joint effort involving American intelligence services along with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. The CIA ran secret training camps in Jordan and Turkey, providing rebels with small arms, ammunition, trucks, and eventually advanced weaponry like BGM 71 TOW anti-tank missiles. Saudi Arabia provided significant funding while the United States supplied training and logistical support.

The program proved to be counterproductive. Jordanian intelligence officers stole and sold millions of dollars worth of weapons intended for rebels on the black market. Even worse, U.S.-supplied weapons regularly fell into the hands of the al Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, and ISIS itself. The program strengthened the very extremists Washington was ostensibly fighting.

The failure of Timber Sycamore illustrates a fundamental problem with American interventionism in Syria. Washington has pursued regime change in Damascus in various forms for decades, yet these efforts have consistently backfired, creating power vacuums filled by jihadist groups and prolonging devastating conflicts. The current enthusiasm for establishing a military presence in Damascus suggests American policymakers have learned absolutely nothing from these failures.

Our entire National Guard family mourns the loss of Sgt. Edgar Brian Torres Tovar, 25, of Des Moines, Iowa, and Sgt. William Nathaniel Howard, 29, of Marshalltown, Iowa-the Iowa Army National Guard Soldiers who were ambushed and killed in Syria. Their mission was in support of… pic.twitter.com/eXcyCquOwb

— Gen. Steven Nordhaus (@ChiefNGB) December 15, 2025

The figure now leading Syria exemplifies the moral bankruptcy of this entire enterprise. Ahmed al Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al Julani, currently serves as president of Syria’s interim government. This represents a stunning rehabilitation for a man who founded al Nusra Front in 2012 as an al-Qaeda affiliate and later formed Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) by merging various rebel factions. Under the name Abu Mohammad al Julani, he was designated a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by the United States on July 24, 2013, with a $10 million bounty maintained on his head.

Al Sharaa’s terrorist designation stemmed from his leadership of al Nusra Front, which perpetrated numerous war crimes including suicide bombings, forced conversions, ethnic cleansing, and sectarian massacres against Christian, Alawite, Shia, and Druze minorities. He fought with al-Qaeda in Iraq, spent time imprisoned at Camp Bucca between 2006 and 2010, and was dispatched to Syria by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in 2011 with $50,000 to establish al Nusra. His close associates have faced accusations from the United States of overseeing torture, kidnappings, trafficking, ransom schemes, and displacing residents to seize property. The New York Times reported that his group was accused of initially operating under al-Qaeda’s umbrella.

Yet in November 2025, the United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 2799, removing al Sharaa and Interior Minister Anas Khattab from the ISIL and al-Qaeda sanctions list. The U.S. Treasury Department followed suit, delisting him from the Specially Designated Global Terrorist registry. This reversal came after the State Department revoked HTS’s Foreign Terrorist Organization designation in July 2025. Washington essentially decided that a former al-Qaeda commander who oversaw sectarian massacres was now a legitimate partner worthy of American military support. This absurd rehabilitation demonstrates how completely untethered American foreign policy has become from any coherent moral framework or strategic logic.

Critics rightly question whether al Sharaa has truly broken from his extremist roots or merely engaged in calculated political rebranding. The speed with which Washington embraced him as a legitimate leader suggests American policymakers care far more about advancing Israeli interests and maintaining regional influence than about genuine counterterrorism or protecting religious minorities.

The blatant lies and cover-up by U.S. officials after the attack in Syria show one thing clearly: they don’t give a damn about American troops. They’re treated as expendable cannon fodder to further consolidate the al-Qaeda regime in Damascus. https://t.co/kS0xCWPGZk

— Kevork Almassian (@KevorkAlmassian) December 14, 2025

The United States needs to pursue a fundamentally different approach to foreign policy. Rather than establishing yet another military base to advance Israeli strategic objectives in Syria, Washington should implement a comprehensive drawdown of overseas military commitments. The hundreds of foreign bases it maintains abroad represent an unsustainable burden that diverts resources from genuine national security priorities like border security and stability in the Western Hemisphere. American taxpayers deserve better than footing the bill for an empire that consistently fails to advance their interests while enriching defense contractors and serving foreign powers.

Syria offers a perfect case study in the futility of American interventionism. Decades of attempts at regime change through covert programs like Timber Sycamore and direct military presence have produced nothing but chaos, empowered jihadist groups, created millions of refugees, and cost hundreds of thousands of lives. The rehabilitation of a former al-Qaeda commander into Syria’s president illustrates how divorced American policy has become from any coherent strategy or values.

Rather than doubling down on failed policies, the United States should pursue strategic restraint, scale back its sprawling network of foreign bases, and allow regional powers to sort out their own affairs without American military involvement. That represents the path toward a more sustainable, affordable, and morally defensible foreign policy. The Damascus base proposal deserves to be rejected outright as yet another wasteful expansion of an already overextended military empire.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 03:30

Europe Establishes Hague-Based Reparations Commission For Ukraine

Top European officials met on Tuesday in The Hague in order to establish an international commission to oversee eventual reparations to compensate Ukraine for Russia's military invasion. President Volodymyr Zelensky and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas were present for the high level talks in The Netherlands.

The International Claims Commission for Ukraine will assess and decide on claims for reparations, and will determine and discharge any amount to be paid out. This is likely to see hundreds of billions of dollars eventually flow to Ukraine for the sake of rebuilding and keeping the civic services sector afloat after nearly four years of war.

via European Union

The treaty to establish the commission has been signed by 35 countries at Tuesday's conference. It also has the involvement of Strasbourg-based Council of Europe, which is a 46-nation group protecting human rights on the continent. The new commission is going to be based in The Hague.

Zelensky welcomed the newly established mechanism, declaring that Russia "paying for its crimes" was "exactly where the real path to peace begins." He added: "This war and Russia’s responsibility for it must become a clear example so that others learn not to choose aggression," and followed with, "We must make Russia accept that there are rules in the world."

Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel agreed, explaining that "Without accountability, a conflict cannot be fully resolved. And part of that accountability is also paying damages that have been done."

All this comes as EU leadership is trying to push through a scheme not just to permanently freeze Russian assets held chiefly in Belgium, but to use the funds for Ukraine's long-term defense and reconstruction.

But Russia’s Central Bank has this week filed a lawsuit seeking 18.2 trillion rubles ($229 billion) in damages from Belgium-based Euroclear, which is meant as a loud shot across Brussels' bow.

The EU's Kallas has lately admitted that the issue of using Russian frozen assets had become "increasingly difficult" ahead of a summit of European leaders which is set for Thursday. The EU is seeking to bypass obvious objectors such as Hungary, and is seeking legal loopholes which would allow a plan to pass based on simple majority vote among EU members.

NOW - Secretary General of the Council of Europe announces the establishment of the "International Claims Commission" and says that work is underway for a "special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine." pic.twitter.com/XlVYKUPtzb

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 16, 2025

The World Bank has estimated the cost of reconstruction due to the war, only figuring in numbers up to December 2024, at $524 billion.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/17/2025 - 02:45

The Military Story Ken Burns Missed In The Revolution

Authored by David Stewart via RealClearDefense,

Ken Burns’ documentary on the American Revolution has generated much commentary, some supportive and some critical. Across social media, complaints abound that he paid too much, or too little, attention to the traditional Founding Fathers—Washington, Hamilton, Monroe, Jefferson. Critics pillory him for overemphasizing one specific type of history—military, political, economic, or social—while minimizing or ignoring the other types. In nearly every interview, Ken Burns repeatedly asserts that he sought to complicate the traditional narrative about the Revolution, to insert more nuance into the conversation, and these various criticisms from across the ideological spectrum might seem to suggest he has done so.

The major flaw in the documentary, however, is not that he presented the Founders in the wrong light nor that he complicated the traditional story. Rather, in his attempt to invoke a more nuanced narrative, Burns in fact obscured the most important elements of that narrative.

Some conservative commentators object, for example, to the documentary discussing Major-General Horatio Gates’ actions after the Battle of Camden. In August 1780, Gates’ 4.000-man American army suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Lieutenant-General Cornwallis’ 2.000 British in the South Carolina midlands. In the waning moments of the battle, Gates abandoned his army, riding almost 200 miles before stopping near Durham, North Carolina. Does this make Gates look bad? Yes; deservedly so. Is it the whole story, or even the most important element? Not at all.

Congress quickly replaced Gates, appointing Major-General Nathanael Greene to command the Southern Department. He inherited a remnant army of fewer than 2.000 soldiers—isolated, defeated, and out of supply. Over the next several months, Greene doubled the size of his army as he slowly withdrew northward, drawing Cornwallis after him. As they moved north, the Americans fought a series of skirmishes and battles, losing almost every encounter—a process of strategic retreats Greene famously summarized as “we get beat, rise, and fight again.” But in this series of defeats, the Americans drew Cornwallis far beyond his supply lines, leading him to abandon the Carolinas completely and to march on Yorktown.

Notably, Greene had far more men in his army by the Fall of 1781 than he had inherited a year earlier. This strongly suggests some important values drove those American soldiers, that they fought for more than money. They did not endure a year of hard marching, a string of tactical defeats, constant food shortages, chronic undersupply, and hundreds of casualties in the hope that this feeble army or a fragile government would someday reward them with land or cash. Those men believed in some higher cause, fought for principles. This is the story Burns’ documentary should emphasize—the context that frames Gates’ cowardice.

The soldiers at Valley Forge spoke a variety of languages—that’s interesting. But why did they suffer through that winter? Why did men dive repeatedly into a frozen Hudson River in January 1776? Why did soldiers volunteer to lead a forlorn hope at Stony Point? Why did three hundred Maryland riflemen choose to die rather than retreat during as the American army crumbled in the Battle of Brooklyn? We can all easily understand why men lie, embezzle, flee, or compromise their principles. It is heroism and self-sacrifice that demand explanation, and Burns’ documentary deserves criticism for failing to explain the extraordinary.

As a trained military historian, I’ve limited my comments to military history. Other scholars, far more qualified than I, have suggested similar reservations about the documentary’s discussions of Native Americans, Blacks, women, political thought, and economic history.

Ken Burns did not make General Gates look bad—Gates did that himself. My objection is that Burns, rather than nuancing or complicating the story of the Revolution, simply marginalized one set of much-discussed actors and substituted a new set, and thereby missed the real story.

David Stewart is a professor of history at Hillsdale College and a founding faculty member of the college’s Center for Military History and Grand Strategy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 23:25

Hegseth Planning Massive Overhaul Of US Commands, Fewer Generals, Smaller Presence In Europe

More major Pentagon reshuffling is coming down the line, driven by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, but this time it's being reported this will involve far more than just staffing and personnel changes - it will impact the entire US global command and headquarters structure.

Washington Post reports this week that the Pentagon is drafting a sweeping overhaul of American military command structures that would downgrade several major headquarters and reshape the balance of influence among senior generals.

via Associated Press

The plan is reportedly being driven in large part by Hegseth’s pledge to "break the status quo" and reduce the number of four-star generals across the armed forces, sources quoted in WaPo say. He's also long been talking about purging the 'woke agenda' from within military ranks.

The restructuring would diminish the standing of US Central Command, US European Command, and US Africa Command by bringing these theatres under a newly created entity called US International Command.

Also of note will be the creation of an "Americom," according to the report. Currently it is US Southern Command and US Northern Command which are responsible for military operations across the Western Hemisphere, but now these will be placed under the US Americas Command.

"To ensure that America remains the world's strongest, richest, most powerful, and most successful country for decades to come, our country needs a coherent, focused strategy for how we interact with the world … The US must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity," the strategy says, based on the report. 

According to another interesting note in the WaPo report:

"Pentagon officials also discussed creating a US Arctic Command that would report to Americom, but that idea appears to have been abandoned."

This comes on the heels of the recently published new National Security Strategy issued by the White House.

Within the 33-page national security document is the laying out of a "Trump Corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine: "The United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity — a condition that allows us to assert ourselves confidently where and when we need to in the region," the document states.

"The terms of our alliances, and the terms upon which we provide any kind of aid, must be contingent on winding down adversarial outside influence — from control of military installations, ports, and key infrastructure to the purchase of strategic assets broadly defined," it adds.

One thing the potential revamping of conventional global command sectors does is to provide a more centralized structure under Pentagon top leadership, and it seems this is what Hegseth is aiming for.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 23:00

Catholics, Trump, And Affordability

Authored by Steve Cortes via RealClearPolitics,

Catholics have been some of Trump’s most important voters. But right now, 55% of Catholics give Trump a D or F grade on handling inflation. Affordability is the central issue for most Americans, especially swing voters. Patriotic middle-class Catholic families feel the squeeze, so this new populist coalition is being tested.

Back in 2016 Trump won the Catholic vote by 8 points, but in 2020 he split the Catholic vote nationally with Biden. Last November, Trump surged to a 12-point win among the faithful in 2024. That massive shift within the largest denomination in America drove the popular vote victory.

Now, this determinative group of voters watches closely, increasingly disenchanted with the state of the economy. So, we commissioned a survey of 1,483 registered voters in Wisconsin, the consummate swing state and one of the most Catholic states in America.

Overall, the Wisconsin economic outlook is grim. When asked to give a letter grade on Trump and the economy, here is the Badger State breakdown:

A - 10%

B - 18%

C – 17%

D – 19%

F – 33%

On inflation specifically, Midwest women deliver some harsh marks, with only 6% giving an A vs. 45% an F grade. Those grades are notable because women are disproportionately the CFOs and shoppers in households.  

Trump’s job approval in Wisconsin is -11% net: 41% approve vs. 52% disapprove. Trump remains very popular among Republicans, with 82% approval, but sinks to only 28% approval among independents. For Wisconsin Catholics, Trump remains more popular at only -4% net, with 45% job approval vs. 49% disapproval.

So … what can be done?

There are fixes, both in policy and in framing/messaging, beginning with blunt honesty with the American people, from Wisconsin Catholics to California agnostics. Recognize and acknowledge the very real angst out there.

The pain of cumulative inflation for five years takes a material toll on both the psyche and the bank accounts of hard-working Americans. The pain is especially acute for the masses of modest earners who have not enjoyed the benefits of asset inflation via stocks and real estate. Culturally, Catholics embrace a very middle-class mindset, even those who have achieved material financial success. They still identify with the mores and habits of their Irish, Mexican, and Italian grandparents.

So, empathy is crucial. Many on the right routinely – and understandably – mock Bill Clinton for his insincere “I feel your pain” tagline, but guess what? It is effective in politics. People need to believe that their leaders care.

So, here are the three points:

1. Level with people and show authentic concern. Communicate clearly that the present angst is real and justified, after years of economic hardship for regular citizens.
2. Detail the current positive trajectory of some key metrics, backed by data and evidence. President Trump and other Republicans can rightly claim serious early progress, using real world numbers.

-Real Wages jump higher, meaning pay adjusted for inflation.

-Residential rents finally trend lower.

-National gasoline prices dipped below $3/gallon for the first time in four years.

3. Accelerate these wins! How? Continue to negotiate for the best possible trade deals for America. Continue to attract massive flows of foreign capital into America. And keep pushing to get illegal aliens out of America, raising wages for citizens and easing the pressure on the scarce supply of housing.

Taken together, these strategies will work for all Americans, including the crucial Catholic population. Catholics are not locked-in partisans. They are practical and patriotic. Appeal to their common sense and persuade them of the efficacy of the plan, from the businessman leader who created the amazing first Trump Boom during the first term into 2019.

The faithful rallied big to Trump in 2024. They now have valid concerns. Repay their loyalty with honest, clear messaging … confirmed by tangible kitchen-table results. Then, Trump and his allies can once again earn robust Catholic support for the 2026 midterms, and beyond.

Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote. He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, and a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 22:35

Susie Wiles Let's Slip She Stands With Massie On War Powers & Venezuela

Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles said the following as part of the controversial Vanity Fair interview in reference to Venezuela policy: "If he were to authorize some activity on land, then it’s war, then (we’d need) Congress."

But only last month when President Trump was asked about this issue, he said, "We don’t have to get their approval. But I think letting them know is good."

All of this could come to a head if enough Congressional leaders, especially on the Republican side, decide to grow a spine and stand up to the White House's foreign policy adventurism down south - which polls show is not supported by most Americans.

The House is expected to vote Thursday on a bipartisan War Powers Resolution. It aims to halt any potential attack on Venezuela after Trump has threatened that the US military hitting land targets would happen 'soon'.

AFP via Getty Images

Introduced by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), the bipartisan bill has 31 co-sponsors, including three Republicans: Reps. Thomas Massie (KY), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), and Don Bacon (NE).

Massie has of course been at the forefront of Trump criticisms, and he's again helping lead the charge on Venezuela pushback, amid the huge American presence in the southern Caribbean.

"The Constitution does not permit the executive branch to unilaterally commit an act of war against a sovereign nation that hasn’t attacked the United States," Massie said in a statement upon the bill being introduced. '

"Congress has the sole power to declare war against Venezuela. Congress must decide such matters according to our Constitution." This viewpoint is precisely what Wiles has voiced in her comments to Vanity Fair.

According to a brief summary of the Trump admin's rationale: 

A central legal question is whether the administration can treat anti-cartel maritime strikes as a form of armed conflict falling within the President’s independent Article II power or within some existing statutory authorization.

CRS reports the Trump administration has asserted drug trafficking and terrorism “involving or associated with Maduro” threaten U.S. national security, and that it reportedly told Congress U.S. forces are in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels – an assertion that other experts and government lawyers reportedly questioned. This framing signals the administration’s likely legal posture without requiring anyone outside government to guess at classified briefings.

Also, Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) is simultaneously seeking to reign in the drone strikes on alleged drug boats with his own war powers legislation. No Republicans have signed on to his initiative.

Recently, the President announced land strikes against Venezuela. No U.S. President is authorized to commit acts of war in a sovereign country without authorization from Congress. I cosponsored this War Powers Resolution to force Congress to vote “for or against” this action. pic.twitter.com/GfIaeQUiny

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) December 13, 2025

He said: "the Trump Administration has not provided a credible rationale for its 21 unauthorized military strikes on vessels in the Western Hemisphere, which have resulted in the extrajudicial killings of dozens of individuals."

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 22:10

WSJ's Fearmongering Doesn't Survive Contact With Evidence

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

Legally armed civilians, we’re told, pose a major danger. They shoot innocent bystanders, justifiably kill others whenever they personally believe “force is reasonably necessary,” and rely on racist self-defense laws.

At least these concerns are the case in several recent news articles in the Wall Street Journal. On Monday, with the story on the front page of the Journal, reporter Mark Maremont continued his attacks on people legally carrying concealed handguns. His article presents four stories from 2021 to the present where citizens who used a gun in self-defense accidentally shot a bystander.

But with more than 1.6 million defensive gun uses each year, almost 21 million permit holders, and 29 constitutional-carry states where a permit to carry isn’t necessary, four cases over four years offers little perspective.

Even worse, only two of the four cases even involve people who were legally carrying concealed handguns in public (one case each from Massachusetts and Michigan). In the Ohio case, the convenience store employee had the gun at her workplace, so concealed-carry laws didn’t apply. In the California case, the state required a permit, but there is no evidence that the individual had a permit.

The Wall Street Journal article warns about the dangers of constitutional carry (what it calls “permitless carry”) and quotes gun-control advocates claiming that “When untrained or panicked shooters miss their target, it’s children, neighbors and bystanders who pay the price.” Yet, not a single one of the article’s examples involved constitutional carry.

To examine the issue more directly, the Crime Prevention Research Center, which I head, used ChatGPT and Grok to search news reports and compile a list of cases from the past decade in which concealed-carry permit holders accidentally shot an innocent bystander. Since 2016, we have also collected cases where people legally carrying guns in public have used them to stop crimes and we have reviewed those cases. All together there were four cases from 2016 through nearly all of 2025. One listed incident involved a security guard, who arguably should not be counted.

From 2016 to 2025, including the security-guard case, permit holders accidentally shot five bystanders – two killed and three wounded. Excluding the security guard, permit holders shot three bystanders – two killed and one wounded.

But the issue isn’t one of perfection. The question is: What is the alternative?

We then did the same review of police incidents from 2016 to 2025 and found 20 cases in which officers accidentally shot a total of 28 bystanders: six killed and 22 wounded. In one case, an officer wounded six people; in another, three officers wounded three people. Some news stories do not make clear whether the criminal or the police shot the bystander, so these numbers may understate the total number of bystanders shot by police.

Overall, police accidentally wounded 5.6 times as many bystanders as civilians (including the security-guard case), killed three times as many, and wounded seven times as many. Excluding the security guard, police shot seven times more bystanders, killed three times more, and wounded 22 times more. Without the security guard case, bystanders were seven times more likely to be accidentally shot by police than by civilians.

Other research using the FBI’s active-shooter definition confirms this pattern. We looked at cases from 2014 to 2024 – cases where individuals actively attempt to kill people in a public area and excluding shootings tied to other crimes – showing that armed civilians consistently act safely and effectively. They stopped over half of the attacks in places where they could legally carry, more frequently than police.

Police are extremely important in stopping crime, and research shows they are the single most important factor. But their uniforms make them operate at a real tactical disadvantage in stopping these shootings. Attackers can wait for officers to leave, strike elsewhere, or shoot them first. As a result, police were killed at eleven times the rate of intervening civilians and accidentally killed civilians or fellow officers five times – or five times more than civilians accidentally shot bystanders.

Attackers don’t just avoid police officers – they risk encountering far fewer of them than permit holders. In 2020, the U.S. had roughly 671,000 full-time sworn law enforcement officers, and typically fewer than 240,000 were on duty at any given time, amounting to less than 0.1% of the population. By contrast, almost 21 million adults held concealed-carry permits, representing about 7.8% of the adult population.

Permit holders are also extremely law-abiding, losing their licenses for firearm-related violations at rates of thousandths or tens of thousandths of 1 percentage point. Police rarely commit crimes, but concealed handgun permit holders are even more law-abiding, facing a conviction rate for firearms offenses that is just 1/12th the rate of police convictions.

Unfortunately, that isn’t the only recent problem with the Wall Street Journal news articles. Another long article co-authored by Maremont at the end of October warns that justifiable homicides increased after Stand Your Ground laws made it easier for people to defend themselves. What the article ignores is that while justifiable self defense killings rose, in the first five years after Stand Your Ground laws are adopted, murder rates fell on average by more than 8%.

The article misstates the legal principal that governs what is justifiable self-defense. It claims that anyone can shoot another person by simply claiming they thought force was “reasonably necessary.” But that isn’t the standard. The law requires that a reasonable third party believe the defendant faced a serious risk of injury or death from the attack.

But the fact that there were fewer murders and more self-defense uses is exactly what the proponents of Stand Your Ground would predict. On top of that, yet another Journal piece attacked these laws as racist because “Nationwide, Black men and boys account for almost two-thirds of the victims in civilian justifiable homicides, according to the Journal analysis of FBI data from 2019 to 2024.” Yet, the Journal ignores past research showing that blacks, who are the most likely victims of violent crime, are also by far the most likely to use Stand Your Ground laws as a legal defense. It is also important to note that about 90% of murders of blacks are committed by other blacks.

The Wall Street Journal alarms readers by focusing on anecdotes, yet it ignores extensive evidence showing that armed civilians pose little risk – and far less risk to bystanders than police. Permit holders regularly stop crimes and active shooters with minimal collateral harm. Stand Your Ground laws are not racist nor do they cause excessive violence; instead, they have reduced murder rates and empowered vulnerable communities – especially black victims – to defend themselves legally. By prioritizing sensational stories over solid data, such news stories ultimately undermine public safety.

John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 21:45

Side Effects Of 30 Antidepressants Ranked And Compared: Lancet Study

Authored by Cara Michelle Miller via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Not all antidepressants are created equal when it comes to your waistline, heart, and blood pressure, according to a sweeping study published in The Lancet that analyzed data from more than 58,000 people to create the first comprehensive ranking of drug side effects.

The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

The analysis compared 30 antidepressants, some of which are not available in the United States, from older tricyclics such as amitriptyline to newer selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) such as sertraline (Zoloft).

Experts said that the side effects listed are not new or surprising.

The study affirmed well-known observations about antidepressant side effects, Dr. Joseph Goldberg, a clinical professor of psychiatry at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who was not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times in an email.

What’s new, Goldberg noted, is the comprehensive review of the literature that reassures us, and helpfully quantifies for us, that many of these common side effects tend to have only modest impacts.

The findings reinforce the need for personalized choices and regular monitoring, especially for long-term users, because side effects can build over time.

Weight Gain, Blood Pressure, and Cholesterol Changes

People on antidepressants experienced a 9-pound difference in weight change across drugs.

The most extreme weight changes occurred in those taking agomelatine (Valdoxan) and maprotiline (Ludiomil), with the former associated with a weight loss of about five pounds and the latter with a weight gain of about four pounds.

Both of these drugs, however, are not approved for use in the United States.

Differences in heart rates exceeded 20 beats per minute, from fluvoxamine (Luvox), which slowed the heart by calming the nervous system, to nortriptyline (Pamelor), a stimulant that increased heart rates.

Blood pressure shifts were also notable, with the upper (systolic) number differing by about 11 points between certain tricyclics such as nortriptyline and doxepin (Silenor). These drugs directly act on the body’s nervous system and blood vessel receptors, which can raise or lower blood pressure.

“These are not alarming effects,” Dr. Daniel Carlat, a psychiatrist and chair of the psychiatry department at MelroseWakefield Healthcare, part of the Tufts Medicine network, who was not involved in the study, said in an email to The Epoch Times, “but the paper reinforces the value of simple monitoring—blood pressure, weight, and labs—especially for patients with heart or metabolic risk.”

“Some of the serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors—like duloxetine and venlafaxine—caused  small but measurable increases in blood pressure and cholesterol, which makes it worth checking those numbers periodically.”

For people with diabetes, hypertension, or heart problems, small increases in weight gain and heart measurements can affect blood-sugar levels or add strain to the heart and blood-vessel system.

Common Antidepressants and Potential Side Effects

The following is not a complete list of potential side effects, and the effects listed vary by person, with not everyone experiencing them.

Why Different Drugs Have Different Effects

About 20 million Americans take antidepressants for depression or anxiety. Beyond mood, these drugs can influence your metabolism, often in very different ways.

Antidepressants affect brain chemicals that lift mood—the same chemicals that regulate appetite, metabolism, blood vessels, and the heartbeat.

Depending on the specific medication, appetite may increase or decrease, blood vessels may relax or constrict, and the heart’s rate may shift slightly.

For example, agomelatine, which causes weight loss and regulates the sleep-wake cycle, may help reduce appetite, while maprotiline, which is linked with weight gain, increases appetite.

Outside of drug side effects, weight gain can also occur when an antidepressant lifts mood—people who were eating less due to depression may return to their usual appetite.

Side effects aren’t the same for everyone, which is why it’s important to consider a person’s overall health, symptoms, and sensitivities when choosing a treatment.

Risks vs. Benefits

“Side effects are not necessarily equal-opportunity offenders,” Goldberg said. “Every patient is unique, and almost all medications carry some side effects—even placebos.”

Some antidepressants that are more effective at treating difficult-to-treat depression carry a higher risk of weight gain, and it would be a disservice to patients if their doctor were to avoid prescribing them simply due to a higher risk of weight gain, Goldberg said.

The patient would be at risk of persistent depression, having functional impairment, and possibly even suicide if their depression went untreated.

“It all starts with a conversation about whether the depression is severe enough to merit medication versus therapy,” Carlat said. “If we do decide to try a medication, I start with those that offer the best balance of benefit and tolerability—typically an SSRI like sertraline or escitalopram. Bupropion is also high on my list because it rarely causes sexual side-effects or weight gain.”

In children and young adults, antidepressants can provoke or exacerbate suicidal thoughts, while older adults appear to be somewhat protected from this side effect, Goldberg said. Additionally, patients with anxiety may also be more prone to developing such side effects.

Some symptoms of depression may also overlap with side effects from medication, Goldberg said. Appetite changes, weight gain, and sexual issues can stem from either depression or medication use.

Clinicians, therefore, need to consider all factors and make personal decisions for each patient. Maintaining open communication between patients and doctors is essential.

Age, anxiety level, genetics, and the use of multiple medications also influence side effect risk. The study did not address why some people are more vulnerable to side effects than others, or how clinicians can identify higher-risk patients.

What to Know Before Starting an Antidepressant

According to Goldberg and Carlat, for patients considering antidepressants, shared decision-making with doctors is key. Common concerns, according to the study’s researchers, include:

• High Blood Pressure: Ask about medications known to raise blood pressure, such as amitriptyline or venlafaxine.
• Weight Gain: Options such as agomelatine, sertraline, or venlafaxine may lead to smaller average weight changes.
• Cholesterol: Some SSRIs, such as citalopram and escitalopram, appeared more neutral on cholesterol compared with paroxetine or duloxetine.
• Usage Period: Ask questions like, “How long will I need this medication?” and, “Are there non-drug options—such as group therapy or exercise—that could work as well?”

Because most of the trials covered in the study lasted only eight weeks, the long-term physical effects of antidepressants remain uncertain, thus experts recommend routine checks of weight, blood pressure, heart rate, and cholesterol for anyone on long-term therapy.

“There are seldom absolutes,” Goldberg said. “A person with high risk for heart disease may be a poorer candidate for a drug that causes weight gain or raises blood sugar.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 20:55

"He'll Be Lucky To Have A Bookmobile": The Future Of Joe Biden's Presidential Library In Doubt As Donations Fail To Come In

Former President Joe Biden’s planned monument to his presidency is becoming a brutal reality check on his legacy. 

In September, the Biden camp announced plans to build his presidential library in Delaware - assembling a team of former aides, friends, and political allies to oversee the project, which is supposed to include a museum and archive.

A senior member of the Biden Foundation described the project to CBS News as a “vibrant and lasting space where history, learning, and civic leadership come together, inspiring future generations to lead with purpose, serve their communities, and strengthen our nation.” 

However, a recent New York Times report suggests Biden will likely have to scale back the project.

“Former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has raised only a small fraction of the money needed to construct a presidential library,” the paper reported Saturday, “leaving uncertainty about when a library might be built and its viability as a stand-alone project, according to public filings and interviews with his donors.”

In filings with the Internal Revenue Service, Biden’s library foundation revealed that it had not received any new donations in 2024, the final year of his presidency. The foundation was instead seeded entirely with $4 million left over from his 2021 inauguration.

The library foundation declined to say what it had raised in 2025. It said that Mr. Biden was only now beginning to actively raise money. He is holding the first event for potential library donors on Monday in Washington’s Georgetown neighborhood.

Still, Mr. Biden’s foundation told the I.R.S. this year that it expected to bring in just $11.3 million, total, by the end of 2027. That would be far below the pace set by other recent presidents, and far less than the $200 million that Mr. Biden’s aides say they want to raise eventually.

 As a result, Biden insiders say there’s talk of folding the potential Biden library into existing Biden-related projects at the University of Delaware. According to four anonymous sources, this could let the library ride on the millions the university—Biden’s own alma mater—has already raised for a “Biden Hall” project.

It appears that no matter what happens with the project, donations will be hard to come by. The New York Times reports that even some of Joe Biden’s most reliable donors say nobody has reached out to them about contributing to his presidential library. Others in the Democratic donor class sound even less enthusiastic, and say they plan to pour their resources into battling President Trump. Others admit that bitterness over Biden’s time in office has closed their wallets entirely.

“The Biden staff, they ruined any type of good library for him,” explained John Morgan, a longtime Democratic donor. “He’ll be lucky to have a bookmobile.”

Morgan was previously one of Biden’s top bundlers.

Biden now plans to personally start raising money for his library, beginning with a Georgetown cocktail event billed as a casual meet-and-greet. But the Joe and Jill Biden Foundation doesn’t sound particularly confident in his ability to raise funds. According to IRS filings, the foundation expects to raise only about $11.3 million by the end of 2027. For comparison, George W. Bush raised $500 million before cutting the ribbon on his library. Obama’s center costs around $850 million. Trump’s team is projecting close to $900 million. 

What’s happening to Biden is simple. The Democratic Party needed a placeholder to stop Trump in 2020, but there was never any genuine enthusiasm for him. When doubts about his cognitive decline became impossible to spin, his party kicked him to the curb. Now, to the Democratic donor class, Biden’s brand equity is virtually nonexistent, and the people who once filled his campaign war chest have moved on.

Joe Biden wanted a monument. What he’s getting is a mausoleum nobody wants to build.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 20:30

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Will The US Hit A Deflationary Wall Or Will The Fed Inflate Again In 2026?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

In a system dominated by Keynesian economics the word “deflation” is considered taboo; like saying Donald Trump’s name out loud in a crowded Seattle yoga studio. The screeching reaction you will get is rarely worth the effort of arguing the point. Every element of modern financial policy is designed to prevent a deflationary event. Every central bank policy is designed to artificially drag the economy out of deflation using whatever fiat stimulus is necessary.

Of course, deflation is not always a bad thing. It’s the harsh tasting medicine sometimes needed to correct the many problems caused by bad investments, corporate fraud, consumer debt addiction, government interference in markets, etc. We saw this during the crash of 2008, but the Federal Reserve refused to let the treatment run its course.

The US, like many countries, has become disconnected from the concept of financial consequences. But when America’s massive system dodges accountability, the cost to future generations can be immense.

So now we’re stuck with 17 years of persistent monetary intervention and the inevitable stagflationary crisis it created. The fact that Keynesians like Paul Krugman, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke downplayed or outright denied the existence of the inflationary threat shows, at the very least, that they know inflation is a bad thing for the general public (otherwise, why would they try to hide it?).

They denied reality so hard it made them look stupid when 2022 hit the US with a 9.1% CPI rate. The consequences of stimulus driven policies are now undeniable and the Keynesian “experts” have been proven useless, but this doesn’t mean anything is going to change for the better.

My ongoing question with the return of Donald Trump to the White House has been this: How are the banks going to pull the rug out from under this administration? Will it be a deflationary crisis, or an even bigger inflationary crisis?

As I noted last month in my article “Inflection Point: US Government Shutdown And Strange Economic Signals”, gold and silver prices seem to be on the verge of going parabolic (beyond the price explosion we’ve already seen this year), which indicates incoming inflationary pressures. Or, at the very least, a global expectation among investors and central banks of a crisis event which will precipitate further inflation.

I suspect this is partially due to the monolithic interest payments that the US government is required to make on existing debt ($250 billion every 3 months currently). Central banks and investors are snapping up gold and silver, perhaps with the expectation that US debt will become unstable, thus affecting dollar value or triggering a new round of QE.

Furthermore, despite Federal Reserve intervention in interest rates, consumer spending has not significantly slowed down and debt borrowing continues to climb to record highs. CPI growth has slowed dramatically from the Biden era, but prices have not dropped enough to give relief to average Americans. If the Fed’s goal in jacking up interest rates was to slow demand, they failed miserably.

As I’ve noted in the past, the central bank had to hike interest rates to over 20% in the early 1980s to finally end the decade long stagflation crisis – We didn’t come anywhere close to that post-pandemic. Meaning, the Fed put a band aid on an inflationary gunshot wound.

But is deflation just around the corner? There are some signs that this is happening. For example, job availability has dropped by 500,000 openings in the past year, and keep in mind around 30% of all advertised employment opportunities are actually “ghost jobs” that don’t actually exist.

There have been increases in job layoffs in 2025, but 27% of those are connected to DOGE cuts to government bureaucracy. White collar jobs have seen a increase in layoffs of around 19% for the year.

The US national debt increased by $2.2 trillion in 2025. Consumer credit debt is increasing by around $190 billion every quarter. Total household debt has hit $18.5 trillion. Eventually, the debt expansion is going to drag down consumption, but this doesn’t seem to be happening yet.

There hasn’t been a noticeable slowdown in retail spending, nor in credit borrowing. Prices remain significantly higher compared to before the pandemic despite softening of the CPI. The elements needed for deflation to pull prices down just don’t exist.

I continue to suspect that a deflationary event is coming, but I think this will only happen after another round of inflation hits the economy. If the Fed cuts rates to the point that CPI spikes sharply again (which won’t take long), then rising prices will ultimately hobble consumer spending. If they don’t, then the Fed will hike rates well beyond recent highs, just as they did in the 1980s.

It’s the Catch-22 trap that I have been talking about for years and it’s not going away. The choice is really up to the Fed – To increase interest rates far beyond what they did in the past three years, or stimulate. In other words, the roller coaster starts in 2026 as the central bank continues to cut. Watch for returning instability in the CPI in the summer and fall.

Trump’s tariffs, if they are still in effect, will likely be blamed despite the fact that tariffs have avoided the kind of cost crisis that many critics were predicting. How did this happen? Well, because the critics don’t take into account the massive mark-up from manufacturers overseas to retail prices on the shelf.

Prices on many goods are jacked up by 250% on average once they reach the US. Some apparel items see a markup of over 900% before they hit the shelf. The price of labor and materials in Asia is exceedingly low, and the charges on final products in America are exceedingly high. This is why most international corporations can eat the tariff taxes without much trouble to consumers.

Tariffs are estimated to have caused an increase in CPI of 0.7% since they began according to Harvard research data; a negligible amount compared to the disastrous predictions of many mainstream economists.

That said, inflation continues to loom and tariffs make for a useful scapegoat simply because most people don’t understand them. There has been no deflationary correction, not since 2008 and not since the pandemic stimulus. Which means high demand has not been quelled and savings are not increasing (the US personal savings rate declined to record lows in 2024-2025). Excess dollars are still increasing in circulation and FRED M2 continues to climb. The system never took its medicine.

This means that as the central bank returns to lower rates, borrowing will explode to even higher levels.  Inflation will resurface, likely by the third quarter of 2026 if the Fed continues to cut interest rates into next year.

The Trump Administration is taking measures that could help mitigate prices. Mass deportations will certainly reduce domestic demand for goods and housing, which means more supply and falling prices. But this won’t happen at the kind of pace we need unless Trump finds a way to at least double the current annual deportations. The effects will be cumulative and will take years to affect markets.

Overall, I don’t see a way to escape more inflation in the near term without dramatic changes to economic conditions, or a historic move by the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates to levels not seen since the stagflation crisis 50 years ago.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 20:05

House Oversight Report Says DC Police Chief Manipulated Crime Data

A few years ago a propaganda narrative was launched by Democrat leaders and the left-wing media asserting that conservative red states are the greatest source of criminal activity in the US.  The narrative was designed to misdirect the public, distracting from the ongoing problem of progressive soft-on-crime policies which help violent offenders stay out of prison while putting the population at risk.    

In reality, red states only have a crime problem because of blue cities.  Democrat controlled cities suffer the most criminal activity by far.  Data shows that 27 out of 30 of the most violent cities in the US are Democrat run. The leftist propaganda backfired, leading to wider discussions on blue city decay and liberal delusions that crime is a "product of society" rather than a product of inherent psychopathy. 

The situation is far worse than reports indicate. For many years evidence has been mounting that reveals a pattern of suppression when it comes to blue city crime stats.  One city that has been placed under a microscope is Washington DC - A new report from the House Oversight Committee alleges former D.C. Police Chief Pamela Smith played a considerable role in the overall Democrat effort to hide true crime stats from the general public.

The report, based on evidence and testimony collected over the course of the past several months, alleges that Smith pressured officers to manipulate crime data. The committee released the report on Sunday, less than a week after Smith announced she was stepping down.  

DC crime stats have been under suspicion for many years, but suppression did not come to light until Donald Trump initiated a crackdown on DC crime, deploying the National Guard to the city leading to an immediate drop in reported violence.  DC police officials claimed that there was no crime problem, boasting of a 30-year-low in murders and assaults.  This claim is now under dispute after the House Oversight report.

The report's key findings include:

1)  Chief Smith used a pressure campaign against staff which led to inaccurate crime data. Testimony from MPD commanders revealed that Chief Smith prioritized lowering publicly reported crime numbers over reducing actual crime, placing intense pressure on district commanders to produce low crime statistics by any means necessary.

2)  Commanders also testified that Chief Smith pushed for more frequent use of lesser, intermediate charges - which are not publicly reported - and required certain crimes to be reviewed by her office, actions that together amounted to manipulating crime data to present the illusion of lower crime in the District. 

3)  Chief Smith punished and removed officers for reporting accurate crime numbers and fostered a toxic culture. Commanders described a culture of fear and stated that Chief Smith propagated an ecosystem of retaliation and toxicity. Testimony reveals commanders were berated for reporting rising crime and faced retaliation.  

4)  D.C. crime statistics are still at risk of manipulation.  Crime classifications - which affect reported MPD crime data - have been and are still at risk of being artificially reduced to manipulate crime statistics at the expense of public safety, even after Chief Smith’s abrupt resignation. 

5)  MPD commanders also confirmed that President Trump’s federal law enforcement surge in D.C. has been effective in lowering crime.  

While Smith has not yet publicly responded to the report, she's previously denied allegations of manipulating crime data, saying the investigation did not play a factor into her decision to step down at the end of the year.  Democrat Mayor Muriel Bowser also released a statement Monday, writing in part that “the interim report betrays its bias from the outset, admitting that it was rushed to release."

This argument doesn't address the damning testimony from transcribed interviews with the commanders of all seven D.C. patrol districts and a former commander currently on suspended leave.  The Democrat position is, as usual, that everyone else is lying and only they are telling the truth.  When faced with questions about the testimonies, Mayor Bowser asserted that the Police Chief's "management style" was none of Congress' business.  

This is the kind of blatant corruption that is suffocating many US cities.  

According to current crime stats from the Metropolitan Police Department, since Trump's federal law enforcement surge started in August, total violent crime is down 26%. Homicides are down 12% and carjackings 37%.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/16/2025 - 19:40