OpenAI Ordered To Produce 20 Million User Conversations To NY Times

OpenAI has been ordered by a federal judge to turn over 20 million anonymized ChatGPT user logs to the NY Times and other newspapers suing the chat giant over its generative AI model. 

In a Nov. 7 order revealed today, New York Magistrate Judge Ona T. Wang said producing the logs in whole is appropriate - granting the plaintiffs' motion to compel production. The newspapers had demanded the user logs to inspect how ChatGPT is used to create outputs they say infringe their copyrighted works. OpenAI pushed back, citing privacy concerns. 

Wang, however, did not find their argument compelling in explaining how consumers' privacy rights were at risk given that there's a protective order in place, and identifying information would be removed from the logs (so anyone who's uploaded their tax return or a legal document is safe?).

OpenAI has until Nov. 14 to hand over the data - the latest twist in the hotly contested discovery process in the newspapers' copyright lawsuits against OpenAI, Bloomberg Law reports. 

OpenAI had contested the wholesale production of the 20 million user logs and asked to narrow the sample, saying in a Oct. 30 briefing that the ask was inappropriate and would disclose private user conversations that had nothing to do with the copyright issue in the case.

Newspaper-plaintiffs including New York Times Co., however, pushed back and said without the user logs they couldn’t conduct expert analysis on topics such as how ChatGPT worked to pull news content for its users or how often the AI model hallucinated and generated false outputs attributed to the outlets. -BBG

The fight over user logs dates back to April - before lawsuits against OpenAI by various news outlets were consolidated for pretrial proceedings. In May, Wang issued a preservation order, rejecting OpenAI's argument that the request was "sweeping" and "invasive."

NYT's lawsuit, filed in Dec. 2023, claims that the companies violated copyright laws by using Times' content to train their AI models, including ChatGPT and Microsoft's Copilot.

"Times journalism is the work of thousands of journalists, whose employment costs hundreds of millions of dollars per year," reads the complaint. "Defendants have effectively avoided spending the billions of dollars that The Times invested in creating that work by taking it without permission or compensation."

The lawsuit has potentially huge implications over 'fair use' of copyrighted materials, a complex legal doctrine governing factors such as the purpose of use, the nature of the copyrighted work, the amount and substantiality of the portion used, and the effect of the use on the potential market for the copyrighted work.

The legal landscape surrounding generative-AI is unsettled, with the technology still in its early days. There are other lawsuits that could test the rights of AI companies to “scrape” content from the web to train AI tools, including one by several prominent book authors against OpenAI. In February, Getty Images sued the AI art company Stability AI in Delaware, alleging that it had infringed on Getty’s copyrights. Stability AI at the time said it doesn’t comment on pending litigation. -WSJ

According to the NYT, AI tools developed by Microsoft and OpenAI have significantly increased their valuations due to the data 'scraped' for training.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 10:10

Coinbase Leaves Delaware For "Greener Pastures" In Texas As Exodus Continues

For more than half a century, Delaware stood as America's corporate capital, renowned for its business-friendly laws, respected Chancery Court, and consistent legal rulings. But in recent years, leftist activist lawmakers and politicized judges have undermined that very foundation, sparking an exodus of major companies seeking stability and fairness to more welcoming states like Texas and Nevada. 

On Wednesday morning, Coinbase joined the growing exodus, announcing on its website and in a Wall Street Journal op-ed by Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal that it is moving its state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas.

"For decades, Delaware was known for predictable court outcomes, respect for the judgment of corporate boards, and speedy resolutions," Grewal wrote in the op-ed. 

However, he pointed out that recent inconsistent Chancery Court rulings and reliance on ad hoc legislative fixes do not create a sustainable business environment. 

"Our decision to leave is about ensuring more predictable opportunities for the company, our shareholders, our customers and the new on-chain ecosystem we're building," he noted, adding, "Texas offers efficiency and predictability, in part thanks to recent corporate-law reforms that enhance governance flexibility and legal predictability." 

Grewal concluded, "Delaware wasn't always the go-to choice for companies. At one point it was New Jersey, and before that New York. We've reached another inflection point in corporate law. The more states that can credibly attract companies, the better—and we'd like to see Delaware step up to stay in the mix. But as for Coinbase, you can find us in Texas." 

Coinbase's website headline announcing a new state of incorporation is great...

The exodus list from Delaware increases:

• Tesla: Moved to Texas.

• SpaceX: Moved to Texas.

• Trump Media & Technology: Moved to Florida.

• Dropbox: Moved to Nevada.

• TripAdvisor: Moved to Nevada.

• Roblox: Moved to Nevada.

• Pershing Square: Moved to Nevada.

• The Trade Desk: Moved to Nevada.

• AMC Networks: Moved to Nevada.

• Madison Square Garden Sports: Moved to Nevada.

• Fidelity National Financial: Voted to move to Nevada.

One of the most high-profile exits came in June 2024, when Tesla shareholders voted to move the company's incorporation to Texas. The decision followed a Delaware judge's ruling that voided Elon Musk's massive compensation package, prompting Musk to urge other companies to abandon Delaware. Has since passed (read report).

At the time, Musk said, "She's a radical far-left activist cosplaying as a judge." 

She’s a radical far left activist cosplaying as a judge

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 3, 2024

Today's development has Musk's attention... 

Let far-left Democrat-run states erode confidence with business leaders by their unhinged leftist lawmakers and woke judges, because their policies are driving people and businesses away - far away. Meanwhile, red states are gaining power as blue states rapidly slide into the abyss, plagued with violent crime, affordability crisis, illegal aliens, the rise of Marxism, and shrinking populations and tax bases.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 09:55

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-November provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Note that we are missing some key pieces of data due to the government shutdown, such as housing starts and new home sales. However, most other housing data, like existing home inventory and house prices, are available from private sources.br />
The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales). It now appears existing home prices will be down nationally year-over-year by the end of 2025. ...

Realtor.com reports in the October 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 5.1% year-over-year in October. And active listings were up 15.3% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in October, as the number of actively listed homes rose 15.3% compared to the same time last year. While this marks the 24th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains, active listing growth has slowed in each of the past five months (down from 17% in September, 20.9% in August, 24.8% in July, 28.9% in June, and 31.5% in May). The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the sixth consecutive month, unchanged since July. Still, nationwide October inventory remains 13.2% belowtypical 2017–19 levels, about the same as last month, an indication that the nationwide inventory recovery has stalled.

There is much more in the article.

House Set To End Historic Shutdown After Democrats Cave

Members of the House of Representatives are back on Capitol Hill today for the first time in 54 days, to vote on legislation that would reopen the federal government by midnight, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

REUTERS/Anna Rose Layden A Path to Reopening

Early Wednesday morning, around 1:30 a.m., the House Rules Committee cleared the way for lawmakers to take up a Senate-passed funding package. The plan combines a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through Jan. 30 with a three-bill “minibus” package - when we get to do this all over again! (joy of all joys) Of note, the Minibus provisions are good until Sept. 30. 

• It will also reinstate federal workers fired during the shutdown and guarantee back pay. It will also prevent further layoffs through the end of January. 

• It also excludes an extension of advanced Obamacare premium tax credits - which Democrats caved on at the 11th hour. 

The full House vote is expected later this evening, likely around 7 p.m., Punchbowl News reports - after which it will head to Trump's desk for his signature.

Republicans on the committee rejected Democratic attempts to amend the bill, including one proposal to extend expiring Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to preside over the swearing-in of Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) at 4 p.m. before debate begins. Grijalva, elected in September to fill her late father’s seat, has faced an unusually long delay before taking office - a delay that has frustrated Democrats, particularly because her vote is needed to release a new cache of Epstein files.

As Rabobank notes:

The end of the government shutdown should lead to the (delayed) release of economic data collected by federal agencies. This will end the episode of limited visibility for policy-makers and private sector decision-makers, who had to rely mostly on data provided by the private sector. The Employment Report for September may be one of the first to be published, because it was originally scheduled for October 3, so it was likely almost or completely finished. This will be lagging data, but it could confirm the continued labor market weakness assumed by the FOMC and shown in other labor market data for September. The Employment Report for October may take more time to produce. What’s more, the quality of data collection in October (and early November) may have been compromised, undermining their reliability. This could even have a longer-lasting impact on year-on-year data, through November 2026.

Tight Margins and Calm GOP Leadership

With a razor-thin two-vote majority, Johnson and GOP leaders are urging all 219 Republican members to be in Washington. Flight disruptions that delayed lawmakers earlier in the week had eased significantly Tuesday, giving the leadership hope for a full turnout.

Despite the high stakes, Republican leadership and the Trump administration appear confident in support within their ranks. There are no immediate plans for Trump to directly lobby House Republicans, though aides said that could change if the vote tightens.

Several key conservatives - including Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Victoria Spartz (R-IN), and Warren Davidson (R-OH) - are being closely watched. Greene, who has rebranded her political image in recent weeks, has been sharply critical of Johnson’s handling of the shutdown.

That said, Rep. Andy Harris, leader of the House Freedom Caucus, offered his support - a signal that others on the party's more conservative flank might fall in line.

Democrats Regroup After Failed Strategy

For Democrats, the six-week standoff has underscored the limits of using shutdowns as leverage. Party leaders had hoped the funding lapse would force Trump to break with Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and negotiate directly with Democrats - a strategy that failed to materialize.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) held his caucus together throughout the impasse, with only Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) breaking ranks on the initial continuing resolution. Some Democrats have expressed frustration over messaging as the shutdown winds down, arguing the party should pivot toward highlighting Republican responsibility for rising health care costs.

Janet Mills, the Democratic governor of Maine, criticized members of her party on MSNBC for backing the measure to reopen the government, saying Congress lacks a “backbone.” Thune’s promise for a future vote on renewing the Obamacare health insurance credits “doesn’t mean much to me,” said Mills, who is running for Senate.

Yet the moderates saw the future Senate vote — coupled with the legislation’s protections for the federal workforce and full-year spending for food aid — as a path to reopening the government. -Bloomberg 

There’s also growing chatter among House Democrats about Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) leadership, though the calls to replace him carry no practical weight in the upper chamber.

Getting Back To Normal

On Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that there would be "massively more disruption as we come into the weekend if the government doesn’t open," adding "It is going to radically slow down, so the House has to do its work." 

It could still take days for air travel to return to normal and probably longer for most of the 42 million low-income Americans enrolled in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program to receive delayed benefits. Lengthy backlogs and delays are likely across the federal government as it reopens. -Bloomberg

What Comes Next

Once the funding package passes, Johnson plans to send members home for the remainder of the week. The speaker has warned of “long days and long nights” ahead - but not this week.

In the weeks to come, Johnson faces three major challenges:

1. A Short-Term Fix: The new continuing resolution extends funding for just 79 days, meaning another shutdown fight looms early next year. Negotiators must still resolve disagreements over contentious appropriations bills covering Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, Defense, and Homeland Security.

2. Health Care Deadlines: ACA premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of the year. Johnson will need to present a credible health care reform plan to prevent moderates from joining a discharge petition to extend the subsidies. Passing major health legislation within 49 days — during the holiday season — is a tall order.

3. Intraparty Disputes: Conservative members including Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Austin Scott (R-GA) are pushing to repeal a provision in the Legislative Branch appropriations bill allowing senators to sue the government if their phone records were obtained by the Justice Department.

Adding to the tension, by the end of the day, the Jeffrey Epstein records discharge petition is expected to reach 218 signatures, triggering a full House vote on whether to force the Justice Department to release the complete Epstein files. Vulnerable Republicans could face political blowback if they oppose the measure.

If tonight’s vote proceeds as expected, the federal government will reopen for the first time since Oct. 1 - but the brief reprieve may only set the stage for another high-stakes funding showdown early next year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 09:40

The post Big Jump in People Looking for Holiday Jobs: The Labor Market is Weakening appeared first on CEPR.

Oil Prices Slide As OPEC Glut Fears Trump IEA's Demand Optimism

Oil prices are tumbling this morning, erasing yesterday's gain as OPEC and IEA unveiled their latest global supply/demand outlooks...

OPEC flipped estimates for global oil markets in the third quarter from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations while the group itself ramped up supplies.

Demand:

• The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3mln BPD unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• In the OECD, oil demand s forecast to grow by about 0.1mln BPD in 2025 while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln BPD.

• In 2026. global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month's assessment.

• The OECD is forecast to grow by about 01mln BPD Y/Y. while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2mln Y/Y.

Supply:

• Non-DoC liquids product on (i.e. liquids production from countries net participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9mln BPD Y/Y in 2025 revised up slightly by around 0.1mln BPD from last month s assessment, mainly due to received historical data n 2025.

• The main growth drivers are expected to be the US. Brazil. Canada, and Argentina

• The non-DoC liquids product on growth forecast for 2025 remains at 0 6mln BPD Y/Y. with Brazil. Canada. US and Argentina as the main growth drivers.

The report published this morning also indicated that the OPEC+ alliance pumped more crude than it estimated was needed last quarter.

Saudi Arabia has steered the coalition to fast-track the revival of halted supply this year in a bid to reclaim global market share.

This month, key members showed their first signs of slowing that strategy, agreeing to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026.

The organization cited a seasonal demand slowdown, though many analysts warn of a significant oversupply in global markets.

Heading into 2026, OPEC’s data does indicate a surplus, though on a more moderate scale than other forecasters. The alliance would need to produce 42.6 million barrels a day during the first quarter to balance global demand, less than the 43 million it pumped in October.

But, the International Energy Agency (IEA) leaned in hard in the demand side, stating that global demand for oil and gas will keep rising for the next 25 years unless governments change course, according to the Irish Times. In its latest World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based IEA warns that on the world’s current trajectory, fossil fuel use will continue to climb with “no meaningful fall in CO2 emissions.”

The new Current Policies scenario reflects a shift in governments’ priorities toward energy security and affordability, a slowdown in electric vehicle growth, and a “declining” focus on climate action. “Climate change is declining – and declining rapidly – in the international energy policy agenda,” said IEA head Fatih Birol.

Until this year, the IEA had assumed fossil fuel demand would peak this decade — a position fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industry and the White House. The agency denied that U.S. pressure prompted the change, noting that it consulted all member governments.

In July, U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright called the IEA’s previous “peak oil” modelling “total nonsense,” adding that Washington might “reform the IEA or withdraw its support.” The U.S. provides 14 per cent of the agency’s budget.

The Irish Times writes that major producers such as the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE argue the world still needs oil and gas to meet rising power demand from artificial intelligence and improving living standards.

The Current Policies scenario assumes existing laws remain unchanged for 25 years. Oil demand grows from 100 million barrels a day in 2024 to 113 million by 2050, while EV sales plateau at about 40 per cent by 2035. The Stated Policies case — reflecting announced but not enacted measures — sees oil peaking at 102 million b/d by 2030, with half of all cars sold in 2035 being electric.

Both scenarios show strong gas demand and a peak in coal use this decade. Electricity demand rises roughly 40 per cent by 2035, or 50 per cent under a more ambitious Net Zero path, with 80 per cent of growth in solar-rich regions.

“For some people it is very optimistic, for some people it is very pessimistic,” Birol said. “We just put the scenarios on the table.”

Clean energy advocates note that renewables dominate future power generation in every case. “Nearly all new electricity demand – driven by manufacturing growth, AI, cooling needs, and the shift to electric cars – will be supplied by renewable energy,” said Bruce Douglas of the Global Renewables Alliance.

Finally, we thought it noteworthy that OPEC’s secretariat hailed this shift by its counterparts at the IEA, which before today had in recent years has predicted consumption will stop growing this decade

The IEA, has had a “rendezvous with reality,” OPEC said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 09:25

UK Balks At EU Demand Of Nearly $8BN To Join European Joint Defense Fund

Early this week the UK government rejected a request from the European Commission for up to €6.75 billion ($7.8 billion) to join the EU’s flagship defense program, which marks a significant setback for post-Brexit relations under Prime Minister Keir Starmer and seen as another blow to European unity in efforts to counter Russia.

The European Commission reportedly proposed that the UK contribute between €4 billion and €6.5 billion to take part in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, and pay in an additional €150 million to €250 million in administrative fees. 

Via Associated Press

"We will only agree to deals that deliver value for the UK and its industry," the UK government said in a statement of ongoing, secretive discussions. "Nothing has been finalized, and we will not provide a running commentary on ongoing discussions."

British defense companies could gain access to the €150 billion SAFE program if an agreement is reached, which is seen as a vital part of the EU strengthening collective defense readiness. A few select non-EU countries including the UK and Canada, and even Turkey, are invited to participate.

Confirmation of Britain's stance, which sees the European Commission's proposed fees as far too high, also came in recent Financial Times reporting, which described:

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen dodged a meeting with the UK prime minister at COP30 in Brazil about Brussels’ demand that London pay billions of euros to secure improved ties.

Sir Keir Starmer sought the meeting to complain about EU demands that the UK pay up to €6.5bn to participate in a loans-for-weapons program and make separate contributions to the EU budget, according to two people briefed on the situation.

A UK official in follow-up said, "We weren’t trying to pin her down to talk about this specific issue. In the end they didn’t end up meeting. He hasn’t spoken to her for a while."

A mere six months there was a high-profile summit (in May) which was widely seen as a formal "reset" in EU-UK relations. One top EU diplomat was quoted in FT as saying, "Europe’s defense naturally includes the UK."

The EU is asking the UK to contribute €4–6 billion (plus a €150m admin fee) in return for letting British defense firms bid for up to 50% of a €150 billion EU rearmament fund.

Currently, the UK can only access 35%. France wants the cap kept at 50%.

Source: The Telegraph pic.twitter.com/QbHo9TZ5PY

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 10, 2025

Bids for projects under the SAFE program are due by November 30, with intense discussions expected between the UK and EU sides to be ongoing until that point.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 09:05

Investors Flock Back To Natural Gas As Demand Soars

By Irina Slav of OilPrice

From indispensable bridge fuel to dirtier than coal, natural gas has gone through a few turbulent years recently, culminating in the EU’s risky legislation that could see it left out in the cold and dark, and investors’ newfound—or newly remembered—appetite for investments in gas.

In the final year of his term, President Biden imposed a moratorium on new LNG export capacity, based on a study by a researcher who claimed that LNG production resulted in more emissions than burning coal. This was perhaps meant to drive investors away from the commodity, like so many studies before it. But it didn’t. Global demand for natural gas has been growing quite healthily, despite the surge in alternative energy sources.

Earlier this year, Infrastructure Investor reported that investors, previously focused on things like wind and solar, were returning to natural gas, sensing which way the demand winds were blowing. The publication quoted sources from the financial services industry as reporting a change in sentiment among investors as the realization dawns that the world will not be moving away from hydrocarbons and into wind and solar but would rather be adding new sources of energy to the older ones.

More recently, Ninepoint Partners portfolio manager and frequent energy markets commentator for the media, Eric Nuttall, indicated this sentiment has only grown stronger. “We see very strong demand drivers and also challenges to meaningfully growing supply over the short term,” he told Bloomberg this week, noting that his company’s energy fund has 27% oil exposure but 60% exposure to gas.

The distribution of investments reflects a reality that those claiming natural gas was even dirtier than coal because it is made up mostly of methane have trouble swallowing. That reality is that natural gas burns more cleanly than coal, is relatively affordable, and abundant enough to secure baseload generation for what many say is the AI age where demand for electricity from Big Tech will soar.

It is no accident that Big Oil is reorienting itself more towards natural gas, while staying in the oil game, of course. Yet Big Oil majors have all signaled they have special plans for gas. Shell, for instance, said earlier this year it would make LNG a priority for the next ten years. CEO Wale Sawan said LNG would be the company’s “biggest contribution to the energy industry” in the period. BP is making plans for both oil and gas production growth, revising its peak oil demand projection by five years.

Exxon recently warned the European Union it would have to suspend sales of natural gas to the bloc unless it canceled a draft legislation that would require producers to track every molecule to make sure it was extracted and liquefied responsibly, taking into account emissions and making sure they are as low as possible. Exxon—and other LNG sellers—are in a good negotiating position: the EU has been breaking records in LNG imports since 2022, even as it tries to move away from the commodity. Germany this year saw the highest volumes of gas-fired generation since 2019.

Australia’s Woodside Energy recently said it expected its sales of crude oil and natural gas to rise by some 50% by 2032, driven by growing demand for energy, which the company sees at 6% annually over the next five years. TotalEnergies lifted the force majeure on a massive LNG project in Mozambique even though observers warn that the security situation in the area remains unstable. Natural gas, in short, is back, and everyone now loves it. All it took for this to happen was the threat of shortage as data centers started popping up everywhere, straining grids and exposing the shortcomings of what so many thought would replace natural gas in power generation: weather-dependent, variable wind and solar.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 08:05

China's DeepSeek Issues Rare Warning Of An Incoming AI-Fueled Jobpocalypse

At the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen, DeepSeek senior researcher Chen Deli made a rare public appearance late last week, warning that artificial intelligence could wipe out most jobs within the next 10 to 20 years. For our readers, this warning sounds very familiar; we've been highlighting the same "jobpocalypse" scenario for years, including in our March 2023 report, "AI Will Lead to 300 Million Layoffs in the U.S. and Europe."

"This will shake society to its core," Deli told the audience at the state-backed industry conference last Friday.

He urged AI companies to act as "whistleblowers," warning the public about the massive labor disruptions ahead.

Deli described the current period as a "honeymoon phase", a brief window where AI enhances productivity without replacing too many workers, but cautioned that once it ends, mass job losses will begin to accelerate.

He added, "Tech companies should play the role of guardians of humanity, at the very least, protecting human safety, then helping to reshape societal order." 

DeepSeek's labor market warning comes amid worsening youth unemployment and a lackluster post-pandemic economic recovery in China. Official figures show youth unemployment peaked at 21.3% in mid-2023 before authorities halted publication of the data.

Founded in 2023, DeepSeek jolted the stock market earlier this year, especially AI US stocks, after unveiling a low-cost model that is at a fraction of the cost of ChatGPT's o1. 

In the U.S., the latest Challenger, Gray & Christmas jobs data showed that AI-related job losses have already begun. 

Here's a snippet from the report:

• In October alone, Cost-Cutting was the top reason employers cited for job reductions, responsible for 50,437 announced layoffs. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was the second-most cited factor, leading to 31,039 job cuts as companies continue to restructure and automate. AI has been cited for 48,414 job cuts this year.

In mid-October, UBS analyst Nana Antiedu cited Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's remarks at the Aiken Chamber of Commerce in South Carolina, which revealed that AI's impact on the labor market is already underway.

Circling back to our March 2023 report outlining the incoming jobpocalypse...

What's critical in the U.S. is that Gen Z and millennials are not only financially strained but also stand to be hit hardest by the coming wave of AI-driven job losses. The Trump administration must recognize this and, to counter the disruption, focus on creating real opportunities and restoring affordability for these generations. If it fails, there's a growing risk that these cohorts will be sucked into socialist and Marxist movements within the Democratic Party, which promise voters "free stuff" while squandering the nation's inheritance toward collapse.

Affordability and opportunity, particularly for the youth, will be major political themes in the year ahead.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 07:45

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 7, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 147 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 31 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Purchase applications picked up almost 6 percent over the week to the strongest pace since September, despite mortgage rates increasing slightly, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.34 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for conventional, FHA, and VA loans increased, as potential homebuyers continue to shop around, particularly in markets where inventory has increased and sales price growth has slowed. Based on the unadjusted purchase index for the week, this was the strongest start to November since 2022.”

Added Kan, “Higher mortgage rates did quell some refinance activity, as conventional and VA refinance applications declined over the week, and the average loan size for refinances dropped to its lowest level in over a month.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.34 percent from 6.31 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 31% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Will The Growth Of Stablecoins Drain Bank Deposits?

Authored by Paul Kupiec via RealClearMarkets.com,

The outlook for crypto finance improved dramatically with the change of administrations and the passage of the GENIUS Act. From January through the end of the “crypto summer of 2025”, outstanding $US stablecoins increased by $80 billion, to a total $280 billion in circulation.

The recent surge in stablecoin issuance has caused some market experts to estimate that, by 2030, under base-case assumptions, the volume of outstanding $US stablecoins will reach $1.9 trillion.

Under more bullish assumptions, stablecoins in circulation could reach $4 trillion.

Some argue that the rapid growth of stablecoins portends a repeat of the disintermediation experience that began in the 1970s with the invention of money market mutual fund. The attractive yields offered by these mutual funds attracted billions of dollars of deposits from bank and thrift institutions which contributed to the failure of hundreds of depository institutions during the 1980s. 

For example, one Citigroup executive echoes the finding of an April 2025 US Treasury report that estimates that stablecoins have the potential to drain as much as $6.6 trillion in deposits from the banking system.

The drain could force banks to raise deposit and loan rates and curtail lending.

A more recent Citi Institute  report suggests that, by 2030, stablecoin growth could extract up to $1 trillion in domestic bank demand, savings and time deposits.

In my opinion, these forecasts fail to appreciate that the GENIUS Act gives banks the ability to directly compete with non-bank stablecoin issuers.

The Act explicitly allows subsidiaries of banks to issue their own payment stablecoins. Banks could supply a hefty portion of the forecasted increase in stablecoin demand without sacrificing their total deposit funding from customer balances in demand, savings, and time accounts.

A bank could issue a stablecoin through a subsidiary, and keep its entire stablecoin reserve balances in demand deposits at its parent bank.

The Act explicitly omits a bank’s subsidiary stablecoin reserve balances from bank regulatory capital requirements. In this hypothetical example, the strategy would satisfy stablecoin demand without any impact on the parent bank’s total deposit balances.

Press stories and bank lobbyist press releases link the higher yields offered by fintech firms on stablecoin balances with the potential for bank deposit flight.

This interpretation is misguided.

GENIUS Act stablecoins are explicitly prohibited from paying interest - regardless of whether the stablecoins are issued by a bank subsidiary or a non-bank authorized fintech.

Once stablecoins are issued, fintech crypto exchanges, wallets and other digital asset custodians accumulate stablecoin balances that can be loaned to fintech firms. The interest on stablecoin loans can be shared in part with the owners of the stablecoins held in custody. The development of a stablecoin banking industry can, in theory, provide the same yield to the owners of bank-subsidiary issued stablecoin deposits as it pays on deposits of non-bank affiliated stablecoins. 

While “stablecoin banks” are at present unregulated, as long as the stablecoin bank regulations that are ultimately imposed do not distinguish between bank-subsidiary issued stablecoins and non-bank affiliated stablecoins, there is no reason to anticipate that there will be a yield differential based on whether the issuer of the stablecoins on deposit is bank-affiliated.

The stablecoin industry may currently be dominated by non-bank fintech firms, but it is hard to imagine that stablecoins issued by bank affiliated subsidiaries—especially subsidiaries of globally systemically important banks—would not be highly competitive in the US dollar stablecoin ecosystem. The claim that stablecoins growth poses an existential threat for the supply of banking system deposits presumes that banks, through subsidiaries, will not be competitive stablecoin issuers.

Unless bank regulators inject roadblocks that prevent banks from competing as stablecoin issuers, stablecoin growth need not create deposit funding problems for banks willing to compete in the internet-based payments market.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 06:30

Trump Admin Expands Oil & Gas Drilling In Gulf Of America, Eyes Alaska Next

The Department of the Interior announced on Nov. 7 two major steps to expand offshore oil and gas leasing under President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, unveiling plans for the first lease sale in the Gulf of America and another proposed auction in Alaska’s Cook Inlet.

The measures are the first in a schedule of 30 offshore sales in the Gulf of America and six in Alaska, part of what the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) described as the Trump administration’s effort to “unleash American energy dominance” and cement the United States’ position as a global energy powerhouse.

“President Trump’s signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act marked the beginning of a new chapter for oil and gas development in the Gulf of America and Alaska’s Cook Inlet,” acting BOEM Director Matt Giacona said in the statement.

“BOEM is now moving forward with a predictable, congressionally mandated leasing schedule that will support offshore oil and gas development for decades to come.”

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the first sale - officially titled Big Beautiful Gulf 1 - will open roughly 80 million acres across the Gulf of America for leasing. The area spans approximately 160 million acres, containing an estimated 29.6 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and 54.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The Interior Department said the sale advances the president’s goal of boosting domestic energy output and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, while fulfilling the directives outlined in Trump’s executive order “Unleashing American Energy.”

To attract participation, BOEM set a 12.5 percent royalty rate—the lowest permitted by statute—for both shallow- and deep-water leases. Certain environmentally sensitive or legally restricted zones, including the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary and blocks beyond the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone, will remain off-limits.

Alongside the Gulf of America sale, BOEM released a proposed notice of sale for Big Beautiful Cook Inlet 1, which would make about 1 million acres available for leasing in Alaska’s Cook Inlet. The sale is the first of six required by the One Big Beautiful Bill, scheduled annually from 2026 to 2028 and again from 2030 to 2032.

The proposed sale has similar terms to those of the Gulf sale, including the 12.5 percent royalty rate.

The offshore leases will help support high-paying jobs, coastal infrastructure, and state-level revenue sharing while bolstering federal finances, according to BOEM.

Proceeds from lease sales, rental fees, and royalties flow primarily into the Treasury’s General Fund, helping fund government operations, and portions go to Gulf Coast states for restoration and hurricane protection.

Oil Permits Continue Through Shutdown

The twin announcements come as the administration continues to prioritize conventional energy development during the ongoing federal government shutdown, which started on Oct. 1. According to contingency plans, the Interior Department will keep processing oil and gas permits—deemed essential to national energy security—while halting nearly all renewable energy activities, which Trump has criticized as costly and inefficient.

During his first term, Trump kept oil and gas permitting active throughout the 34-day government shutdown in 2018–2019.

President Barack Obama’s administration halted drilling permits and canceled at least one lease sale during the 2013 shutdown.

Some environmental groups have criticized the current administration’s decision to prioritize oil and gas permitting during the shutdown, saying it reflects a bias toward fossil fuel interests.

Meanwhile, Energy Secretary Chris Wright blamed Democrats for refusing to back the Republican stopgap spending measure to keep the government open, writing on social media that his department remains committed to “delivering affordable, reliable and secure energy to the American people.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 05:45

Why We Should Welcome Tommy Robinson's Acquittal

Authored by Tony Dawson via TheCritic.co.uk,

Tommy Robinson (also known as Stephen Lennon) was last week acquitted of an offence contrary to schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act 2000. Robinson had been accused of breaching the criminal law after he failed to provide the PIN access code to his mobile.

He had been stopped by the police on 28 July 2024 having approached the Channel Tunnel at Folkestone.

The decision by District Judge Sam Goozée is a welcome push back against a draconian and easily abused power.

To explain, Schedule 7, paragraph 2(1) provides that:

An examining officer may question a person to whom this paragraph applies for the purpose of determining whether he appears to be a person falling within section 40(1)(b).

Section 40(1)(b) details that a terrorist is a person “concerned in the commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism”. The power may be exercised at a port or border area where a person is entering or leaving Great Britain or Northern Ireland.

Paragraph 18  of Schedule 7 then goes on to create an offence of contravening an obligation under the Schedule and gives a maximum penalty of 3 months imprisonment.

What makes the power unusual is that an officer is not required to have reasonable suspicion before questioning a suspect, as would normally be the case. Section 24 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984 conversely, for instance, requires that an officer must have “reasonable grounds for suspecting” that an offence has been committed and may arrest a person whom he suspects being guilty of it. The lack of a reasonable suspicion requirement in Schedule 7 gives police officers immensely broad powers with a great potential for abuse.

Further, a person who has been stopped is not entitled to the right to silence. Beghal v DPP  [2015] UKSC 49 determined that privilege would not apply to the process as its ultimate purpose was not to gather information prior to charge. If evidence was to be used, it might be excluded under section 78 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act. Of course, in practice, evidence may be used and a judge may decide against excluding it. As Lord Kerr observed in a dissenting judgment:

There is, currently, no guarantee that someone who gives a self-incriminating answer in the course of a Schedule 7 inquiry will not be confronted by those answers in a subsequent criminal trial. He may succeed in having evidence of those answers excluded but he cannot ensure that he will not be prosecuted on foot of them. I consider therefore that the requirement in Schedule 7 that a person questioned under its provisions must answer on pain of prosecution for failing to do so is in breach of that person’s common law privilege against self-incrimination.

Some recent cases give good examples of the use to which the police put their powers. @AkkadSecretary, as known on X, posted a video on YouTube describing a stop when he returned from the United States on 28 January 2025. He was detained, given access to a lawyer before his interview, but not during it, and was forced to reveal the passwords to his devices so that the police could access them. He was asked about his opinions on Russia and the war on Ukraine. He was further asked about what he thought about the UK and its policies and the West in general. The police kept his devices, so that he was forced to buy a new train ticket, as he only had his previous ticket on his phone. In his video, he cited further instances where stops were made, including in the cases of Paul Golding and Lauren Southern.

There have, however, been instances where the courts have constrained the powers. In R (on the application of Miranda) v Secretary of State for the Home Department  [2016] EWCA Civ 6, the Court of Appeal found that the use of the power when stopping and questioning David Miranda, the since deceased husband of Glenn Greenwald, had been contrary to Article 10 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) since Miranda was holding material which was designed to assist his husband’s journalism. The Court of Appeal made its determination since there were no adequate safeguards against the arbitrary use of the Schedule 7 powers. The Code of Practice on the use of Schedule 7 was since amended to take journalism into account.

Beghal v United Kingdom (app no 4755/16) in the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) also showed a stronger position against schedule 7. The applicant, Sylvie Beghal, was a French national resident in the UK. She was held and questioned for 9 hours at East Midlands airport after she returned from visiting her husband in France, who was serving a prison sentence on a terrorism offence. The ECtHR found that the combination of the long period under which a person could be detained, the lack of safeguards, the lack of presence of a lawyer, lack of reasonable suspicion and the ability to compel answers to questions together meant that there was a violation of Article 8 (private life) of the ECHR. In practice, since the 9 hour term of detention had been reduced, the UK could argue that there was further control, so Beghal has not had a significant impact on the use of schedule 7. The judgment did not find that lack of reasonable suspicion or self-incrimination per se marked breaches of the Convention.

In Cifci v CPS [2022] EWHC 1676 (Admin) established that a person could not be convicted of an offence under schedule 7 unless the decision to stop was lawful and that a stop would be unlawful if it constituted unlawful discrimination contrary to the Equality Act 2010. The High Court said that two questions should be asked:

(i) was the purpose of the stop for the statutory purpose set out in para 2(1) of Sch.7? and (ii) did the appellant’s protected characteristics have a significant influence on the decision to stop? These are separate questions and each must be asked.

In Cifci, however, the appellant had not been subjected to unlawful discrimination and the stop was therefore lawful.

The police have elsewhere conceded that their use of powers were unlawful. In 2024, a French activist was stopped under the powers and asked whether he had taken part in anti-government protests and whether he backed President Macron. He was awarded substantial damages after he brought a claim for misfeasance in public office and false imprisonment.

It is against this background that Tommy Robinson was acquitted. The law has developed safeguards, albeit limited ones, to prevent searches from being arbitrary. As controversial as Robinson is, due to his connection with the now disbanded English Defence League, his previous convictions and his strong criticism of Islam, schedule 7 is designed for a specific purpose and must be exercised within that purpose in a non-discriminatory way.  

District Judge Sam Goozée described the events surrounding the stop and detention. PC Thorogood Robinson recognised Robinson as Robinson approached the police booth driving alone in a Bentley. The selection decision was made after 34 seconds. The officers described Robinson’s behaviour as being suspicious, that he was stopped because he was not the registered driver of the vehicle and that he was travelling a long distance to Benidorm on short notice. There were unexplained delays when Robinson was stopped. The total delay before detention appeared to be 40 minutes.

District Judge Sam Goozée found that the stop itself did not fulfil the statutory purpose under the Terrorism Act. The officers involved had vague recollections of the events leading to Robinson’s stop and of the questions asked. Robinson had been stopped primarily because of who he was, rather than under selection criteria.

Moreover, the stop had also related to Robinson’s beliefs, as protected under the Equality Act. The officers might have attempted to justify their actions by asking questions linked to political activities and the possibility of links terrorism. Yet, the lack of recollection meant that the stop was discriminatory.

The authorities will doubtlessly argue that schedule 7 provides a useful means through which the police can gather evidence on suspicious persons potentially linked with terrorist activity and that there should be some flexibility in how it is applied; and, indeed, Cifci, on the Equality Act, has the potential to cause numerous problems if police become too restrained in making stops based on the political or religious beliefs of suspicious persons at borders. The use of the power, though, has most certainly been abused. Figures have been stopped merely for fishing expeditions based on views that diverge from the centre. As such, it will be a welcome development if the police are more cautious in exercising their powers in the future.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 03:30

Turkish Prosecutors Demand '2,000-Year' Prison Term For Jailed Istanbul Mayor

Via The Cradle

A Turkish prosecutor has demanded more than 2,000 years in prison for Istanbul’s jailed mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, accusing him of leading a vast corruption network that allegedly defrauded the state of billions of liras, according to an indictment unveiled on Tuesday.

Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek said the nearly 4,000-page document names 402 suspects, including Imamoglu, and charges them with forming a criminal organization, bribery, fraud, money laundering, and bid-rigging. 

Ekrem Imamoglu, via Bursa Press

He said the alleged network caused 160 billion Turkish liras (around $3.8 billion) in losses to the state over 10 years.

The indictment, which includes findings by the Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK) and what Gurlek described as "digital and video evidence," portrays Imamoglu as the founder and head of the organization. It also accuses several business figures of being coerced into paying bribes through a secret municipal fund.

Turkish media reported that Imamoglu faces 142 separate charges and could serve up to 2,352 years in prison if convicted. 

The mayor, detained since March, has rejected all accusations and denounced them as politically driven. His arrest sparked the largest demonstrations in Turkiye in over a decade.

Imamoglu previously received a separate prison term in July for allegedly insulting and threatening the city’s chief prosecutor – a verdict he is appealing. 

Additional charges against him include espionage, document forgery, and defamation of public officials. He is also accused of transferring residents’ personal data to obtain foreign campaign funding, which Imamoglu has dismissed as "nonsense."

The government has denied accusations by Imamoglu and his Republican People’s Party (CHP) that the proceedings are politically motivated, insisting that Turkiye’s courts are independent.

The Istanbul municipality and Imamoglu’s lawyers have not commented on the latest indictment, with the trial date to be set once the court accepts the case.

The sweeping indictment against Imamoglu aligns with what Turkish academic and writer Fatih Yasli describes as a broader campaign by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government to dismantle the country’s democratic framework. 

Yasli argues that Ankara has turned the judiciary into a mechanism of "de-electoralization," or criminalizing opposition forces while extending selective overtures to the Kurdish movement. 

Within this context, the case against the Istanbul mayor, the most prominent figure in the Republican People’s Party (CHP), is seen as part of a wider effort to fracture the opposition, reclaim CHP-led municipalities, and entrench Erdogan’s power through judicial and administrative control rather than through elections.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 02:45

Vienna Teachers Warn Of Rising Radical Attitudes Among New Immigrant Students

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Viennese teachers are reporting growing challenges with students from immigrant backgrounds who are increasingly unwilling to learn German or adapt to local values, according to teachers’ union representative Thomas Krebs of the Christian Trade Unionists Group (FCG).

Speaking to Heute, Krebs said many of those arriving from conflict or crisis regions now bring radical beliefs that pose problems in Austrian classrooms.

“In the past, people fled from extremism. Now, many people come to us radicalized by extremism and spread these ideas here as well,” said Krebs.

He cited incidents of female teachers being disrespected or assaulted by male students and parents, saying such behavior reflects imported attitudes that reject gender equality.

“This disrespect ranges from refusing to shake hands to insults and physical assaults,” he added.

Krebs said the problem also affects staff relations, with reports of some male teachers refusing to shake hands with female colleagues for similar reasons. He warned that children from Western or secular families are sometimes treated as inferior by classmates, while those from conservative backgrounds who wish to integrate face pressure to conform.

“Students from Western cultural backgrounds are not seen as equals,” Krebs said, adding that liberal democratic values are often dismissed in favor of religious rules.

According to the union, teachers frequently encounter resistance to Austria’s educational standards.

“Our educational principles are often rejected. For example, religious content is prioritized over the content of the curriculum prescribed by Austrian law,” Krebs stated.

The FCG union is calling for new measures to address what it describes as a widening integration gap. It wants not only mandatory German-language instruction but also compulsory integration programs held outside of school, with attendance monitored by authorities.

“Effective teaching is only possible if there is also a willingness to integrate,” Krebs said. “The values of our democratic society must be conveyed in such a way that fundamental rights and culture are understood as an enrichment and not opposed.”

Recent data and testimony have reinforced concerns about language barriers and integration in Vienna’s schools. Of the roughly 16,700 first-graders enrolled in the city, more than 44 percent — about 7,400 children — do not have sufficient German skills to follow lessons. In the 2018/2019 school year, the proportion was 30 percent. Officials note that around 60 percent of these students were actually born in Austria, suggesting that many are growing up in what commentator Andreas Mölzer described as “closed parallel societies that simply refuse integration.”

“This means they grow up in families and closed parallel societies that simply refuse integration. Integration into our social system and our cultural fabric depends primarily on language acquisition,” Mölzer wrote in the Austrian daily Krone, warning that many such children risk “entering life without a qualification and with limited career prospects.”

Statistics from Austria’s middle schools show the same pattern. According to STATcube last October, only about 8,500 of Vienna’s 26,800 middle school students use German as their primary language, while 76 percent speak another language at home. In some districts, including Margareten, Hernals, and Alsergrund, that figure exceeds 90 percent.

Freedom Party (FPÖ) education spokesman Hermann Brückl called the situation “a full-blown educational emergency,” claiming that “German is becoming a foreign language in our own classrooms.” He pointed to data showing that 41.2 percent of students in Vienna’s compulsory schools now identify as Muslim, surpassing Christian students, who make up 34.5 percent. The figures were confirmed by the Austrian Integration Fund (ÖIF).

Brückl’s party argued that political leaders have failed to address “parallel societies” in schools. “Instead of demanding achievement and integration, parallel societies are being cultivated directly in our schools,” Brückl said, adding that the number of pupils in German-language support courses has grown by a third since 2019, and those in special education classes have doubled.

Last October, former principal and author Christian Klar warned of what he called a “rapid Islamization” of Austrian schools. In an interview last year, he said schools in Vienna’s northern districts now have up to 90 percent of students from migrant backgrounds, leading to “increasing pressure on non-Muslim students” and rising anti-Semitic incidents. Klar argues that Austrian schools must “take a massive stand” against fundamentalist attitudes and ensure that classrooms remain neutral spaces free of religious coercion.

Teachers’ unions report that Vienna’s schools are struggling to cope. Krebs previously said staff resignations are increasing, citing “violence, extremism, and misogyny” as the main reasons. Evelyn Kometter, chair of Austria’s national parents’ association, described classrooms where “only three out of 22 students can speak German,” forcing teachers to repeat instructions multiple times. “By then, two-thirds of the lesson is already over,” she said.

Krebs warned that expanding capacity alone will not solve the problem. “They can think of nothing better to do than to plow up the last green spaces and sports facilities for schools with excavators and construction equipment and to pave them over with containers and huge extensions without any real plan,” he said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/12/2025 - 02:00

The Age Of Brazen Madness... And The Collapse Of Fear

Authored by Armstrong Williams via The Epoch Times,

When a 29-year-old man in Minnesota can post a TikTok video allegedly offering $45,000 for the assassination of former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, we can’t dismiss it as another outburst from an online extremist. It’s a symptom of something far deeper—the moral corrosion of our civic life.

According to the FBI, Tyler Avalos uploaded a video on Oct. 16 captioned “WANTED: Pam Bondi. REWARD: $45,000. DEAD OR ALIVE (PREFERABLY DEAD),” complete with Bondi’s image in a rifle’s crosshairs. This wasn’t done in secret corners of the dark web. It was posted openly on TikTok—the global stage for attention seekers and provocateurs.

That brazenness should alarm every American. It tells us the guardrails that once kept outrage and violence in check have collapsed.

There was a time when people feared consequences—not irrationally but morally. That fear was a civic virtue, a recognition that actions carried weight. Now, we live in an age where shock replaces shame, and fame replaces fear. Social media has transformed the unhinged into the influential.

Platforms such as TikTok and X reward extremity, not reason. The algorithm doesn’t care if you’re serious or insane, only that you’re loud. For people who feel powerless or ignored, outrage becomes currency. Violence becomes a shortcut to significance.

When someone can post a public assassination bounty and expect followers before federal agents, deterrence is gone.

Avalos’s alleged threat isn’t just criminal—it’s emblematic of political nihilism: the belief that nothing is sacred, that speech is merely spectacle, and that power justifies anything. From threats against judges to violence at rallies, this nihilism has infected the bloodstream of U.S. politics.

And both sides are guilty.

The left excuses its extremists as “activists.”

The right excuses its own as “patriots.”

Each side’s moral blind spot validates the other’s madness. But when society measures justice by team loyalty, it ceases to be a society at all.

The republic only endures when restraint is voluntary—when people choose not to cross the line because they still feel its existence. Today, that line has been erased.

Deterrence requires two things: certainty and consequence. Both have eroded.

Americans watch as violent rioters go free while ordinary citizens who defend themselves face prosecution. They see selective justice—leniency for the powerful, vengeance for the politically inconvenient. When the law looks partisan, people stop fearing it. When the rules depend on who you are, not what you did, deterrence dies.

A nation cannot maintain order when justice is conditional. The law must be blind, not biased.

In a fame-driven society, notoriety has become the new immortality. The unhinged no longer fear prison; they crave recognition. Attention—even infamy—has become reward enough.

That’s why enforcement must be swift and visible. The FBI’s quick action in arresting Avalos was necessary and right. Justice delayed is weakness broadcast. But enforcement alone won’t fix the deeper rot. We must restore moral deterrence—the cultural understanding that some acts are beneath us as human beings and unacceptable as citizens.

What we are witnessing is the collapse of consequence. Every civilization that dies first loses its capacity for shame. Once people stop fearing moral failure, legal punishment soon follows. The boundaries of right and wrong blur into the fog of “my truth” and “your truth.”

That’s where America stands—a nation of endless outrage, with no sense of proportion or restraint. Politicians feed the frenzy because it keeps voters angry and engaged. But anger is combustible. When words lose guardrails, violence finds opportunity.

The answer isn’t just tougher laws. It’s tougher character. It’s moral courage—the kind that refuses to justify violence, no matter who it targets. Deterrence begins not in Washington but in the conscience of every citizen.

America doesn’t need a speech code; it needs a moral compass. We must once again teach that liberty is not license, that freedom requires responsibility, and that the rule of law must apply evenly or it applies to no one.

Until that happens, we’ll keep breeding more Tyler Avaloses—men who confuse infamy with importance, and chaos with courage.

And when fear—the healthy kind—finally dies, civilization follows.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 23:25

China May Have Just Cracked The Code On An Outer Space Particle Beam

As if nuclear armageddon down here on Earth wasn't enough to worry about...China could soon be readying particle beams from outer space.

Particle beams — streams of high-speed atoms or subatomic particles — have long been the holy grail of space warfare. The concept sounds simple: zap an enemy satellite with a beam so intense it melts or fries the target. Reality, however, has been less cooperative — mainly because of power, according to the South China Morning Post.

Building such a weapon means delivering megawatts of energy with microsecond precision, a combo engineers usually describe as “pick one.” Systems that are powerful are clumsy; systems that are precise can’t handle the juice.

But Chinese scientists now claim they’ve solved this decades-old physics headache. In a study published in Advanced Small Satellite Technology, a team led by Su Zhenhua of DFH Satellite Co. unveiled a prototype power system that reportedly hits both marks — high power and pinpoint control.

Their device pushed out 2.6 megawatts of pulsed power while keeping synchronization accuracy to 0.63 microseconds. “Existing pulsed power supplies typically have an output power of less than 1 megawatt and synchronisation control accuracy worse than 1 millisecond,” Su’s team wrote.

SCMP writes that the researchers said more juice was needed because “devices like electromagnetic jamming warfare simulators and particle beam systems demand extremely high instantaneous power.” The prototype, they added, “solves the problems of insufficient power supply and degraded control accuracy.”

Instead of relying on miracle materials, the team redesigned the entire system — from solar-fed capacitors to ultra-precise discharge control — ensuring all 36 power modules fire within 630 nanoseconds of each other. The result: 2.59 MW of clean, square-wave pulses, perfect for particle accelerators, lasers, or any other “definitely not weapon” applications.

While the paper highlights peaceful uses — laser comms, ion thrusters, radar — the timing is hard to miss. With the U.S. expanding its Starlink and Starshield constellations, China’s interest in space-based power systems seems less about better weather forecasting and more about keeping pace in the orbital arms race.

Whether the system can survive space’s brutal environment — radiation, vacuum, temperature swings — is still unclear. At least for now, China’s latest power breakthrough may be less “Death Star ready” and more “promising PowerPoint slide.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 23:00

US Troops Train For Jungle Warfare In Panama, First Time In Decades

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US War Department has begun sending conventional ground forces to Panama for training in jungle warfare for the first time in more than two decades, ABC News reported on Monday.

News of the training in Panama comes amid a major US military buildup in the Caribbean and a push toward a potential war with Venezuela, a country with vast jungles. A US military official told ABC that the training in Panama is not intended to prepare troops for a potential mission in Venezuela, but President Trump has reportedly been reviewing options for attacking the country.

While the US hasn’t sent enough forces to the Caribbean for a full-scale invasion of Venezuela, US military planners reportedly do believe it has a sufficient force to seize strategic ports and airfields in Venezuela.

US Army image showing US Marines at the Combined Jungle Operations Training Course at Base Aeronaval Cristóbal Colón, Panama.

According to a report from The New York Times, one of the options presented to President Trump would involve sending troops to capture airfields or oil infrastructure inside the country.

The ABC report said that US soldiers and Marines are participating in a three-week training course once called “Green Hell” due to the similarities to combat in Vietnam at the Base Aeronaval Cristóbal Colón, formerly known as Fort Sherman.

The jungle training course at the base was shuttered in 1999 when the US pulled troops out of the country as part of a deal to cede control of the Panama Canal to the Panamanian government.

Earlier this year, President Trump was calling for the US to "retake" the Panama Canal, which led to the US signing a deal with Panama that allows US troop deployments to bases along the canal for training and military exercises.

Proponents of a regime change war with Venezuela to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro point to the 1989 US invasion of Panama that led to the arrest of Panamanian leader and former CIA asset Manuel Noriega.

But a major difference between a potential invasion of Venezuela and the US invasion that ousted Noriega is the fact that the US had a long-established military presence in Panama at the time.

Maduro has vowed that Venezuela is ready to fight if the US attacks, and Russia has recently delivered air defenses to the country and is considering further support.

The Venezuelan leader also says that a pro-government militia that has millions of members is also ready to take up arms against any invading force.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 22:35

Citizens On Patrol, Eh? Canadian Military To Teach 300,000 To Shoot Guns, Fly Drones, And Drive Trucks

The Canadian military is hoping to recruit and train 300,000 public servants as part of a national mobilization plan, according to a directive from their defense department.

Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan.

The plan would call for federal and provincial employees to be given a one-week training course in firearms, flying drones, and driving trucks, according to the directive signed by Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan and defence deputy minister Stefanie Beck. 

The public servants would be inducted into the Supplementary Reserve, which is currently made up of inactive or retired members of the Canadian Forces who are willing to return to duty if called. At this point, there are 4,384 personnel in the Supplementary Reserves, but in the case of an emergency, that would be boosted to 300,000, according to the directive from Beck and Carignan.

While the supplementary recruiting push will “prioritize volunteer public servants at the federal and provincial/territorial level” the entry standards wouldn’t be strict, according to the nine-page unclassified directive. -Ottawa Citizen

"The entry criteria for the Supplementary or other Reserve should be less restrictive than the Reserve Force for age limits as well as physical and fitness requirements," reads the document. 

Once inducted into the ranks, the public servants would need to do one week per year of military training, but would not be issued uniforms. While they would receive medical coverage in exchange for their annual military service, the week of training would not count toward their pensions, the directive reads. 

The directive also approves the creation of a "tiger team" (tigers are not native to Canada) - which will work on establishing a Defense Mobilization Plan (DMP) which will examine what changes are needed between government legislation and other factors to allow for such a large addition of Canadians into the military. 

"Initial planning has begun to explore how the CAF (Canadian Armed Forces) could contribute to greater national resilience, including leveraging increased readiness from an expanded Reserve Force for defence purposes, in times of crisis, or for natural disasters for example," Department of National Defence spokeswoman Andrée-Anne Poulin told the Citizen - though the military wouldn't comment on the timelines for the creation of the mobilization plan despite the fact that this directive was issued in May. 

The directive would also beef up the Canadian Forces reservists - volunteers who are in current military units that are considered part-time, and are involved in training on a year-round basis. The current reserve force under the directive would jump from 23,561 to 100,000 for the mobilization plan. And again, they have no plan on how to even do this. 

According Carignan and Beck, the plan requires a Whole of Society (WoS) effort - meaning that all Canadians will need to contribute to the initiative, and that the Privy Council Office would lead a government "approach to population engagement to advance servant culture around sovereignty and public accountability," whatever that means. 

"Defence will not accomplish the outcome alone, rather it will necessitate shaping, facilitation and engagement with the Privy Council Office, other government departments and agencies as well as socialization with the Canadian public," they added.

The so-called 'tiger team' will also consult with Canadian allies, "including Finland which is a recognized leader in this area." 

Of note, Finland's military is based on conscription - every male citizen aged 18-60 is liable to serve in the military, while women can apply on a voluntary basis (but what is a woman?).

After Finnish citizens complete their compulsory full-time military service, they join the reserves - which now has an age limit of 65. 

Buy a Terrance and Phillip tactical patch here... (no affiliation)

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 22:10

Chinese-Owned Trailer Park Near US Stealth Bomber Base Linked To Suspicious Vancouver Activity

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

A sprawling U.S. investigative report has placed a Richmond, B.C., couple already identified in a high-profile Chinese-diaspora repression case at the center of an even more explosive national-security controversy south of the border: they are linked to a web of shell companies that own a trailer park beside Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri — home to the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and launch point for the June 2025 strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The same couple are named in B.C. court filings and appear in video evidence from a saga outside Vancouver journalist Bingchen Gao's home, where activists aligned with Miles Guo — a New York–based tycoon with reported Chinese intelligence ties — staged repeated demonstrations in a siege-like campaign.

Taken together, the property records unearthed by the Daily Caller News Foundation, along with court and corporate documents reviewed by The Bureau to verify the American reporting, outline a cross-border pattern of potential Chinese state activity, echoing past cases of high-profile actors using Vancouver as a base for operations into the United States.

Raising the stakes, The Bureau has also identified a former Vancouver business entity tied to the couple, involved in hard-rock lithium exploration in Canada's Northwest Territories — an alarming detail suggesting their network could intersect with China's drive for critical minerals supply chains in North America.

The real estate thread south of the border is clear. Missouri business and environmental filings assembled by investigative reporter Philip Lenczycki show the Knob Noster Trailer Park is registered to Property Solutions 3603 LP, with a state operating permit locating the property directly north of Whiteman — roughly a mile from the runway. Companion filings in Utah and Georgia connect similarly named entities to the Richmond residents, Esther Mei and Cheng Hu. The couple, who share a Richmond home according to court documents, did not respond to repeated requests for comment, Lenczycki reported.

A former CIA operations officer said such thinly veiled ownership structures are typical of state-linked activity, including the use of foreign nationals to place assets near critical infrastructure. Bryan Dean Wright, a former CIA officer, told the Daily Caller there was "zero chance a Chinese couple from Canada rolled into Knob Noster and saw a strictly financial investment in a dumpy plot of land," arguing that the trailer park "would hypothetically give Xi Jinping a range of options to wreak havoc."

Wright's assessment is not proof of wrongdoing, but his conclusion aligns with patterns previously reported by The Bureau.

At a recent hearing in Washington, D.C., Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics Director Donnie Anderson told lawmakers that investigations into PRC-linked cannabis operations have uncovered claims of Chinese government interests strategically purchasing property near sensitive U.S. infrastructure — including a munitions plant in Oklahoma supplying a large share of the Pentagon's heavy weapons.

Across North America, cases of PRC-linked farmland acquisitions are moving from headlines to court filings and prompting calls for official investigations. The Bureau has reported on major land purchases in Prince Edward Island allegedly tied to Beijing's United Front network, and on the premier's subsequent call for RCMP and FINTRAC investigations.

What brings the Richmond couple's story into sharper focus for Canadian readers is the series of incidents outside Bingchen Gao's home in 2020 and 2023.

Reporting on charges against Miles Guo in 2024, Global News in British Columbia wrote that demonstrators clad in New Federal State of China clothing protested outside Gao's home for 77 days in 2020 and returned in January 2023. The outlet noted the group "would say little… save calling Gao' very dangerous' and calling for his expulsion from Canada."

In an earlier case, the Chinese journalist Gao fought a high-profile defamation battle with Vancouver developer Miaofei Pan, a leader of the Canadian Alliance of Chinese Associations (CACA) — which former PRC diplomat Chen Yonglin has publicly described as operating at a "controlling level" of the United Front Work Department in B.C. Pan and another CACA leader dispute that characterization, but they have also been questioned by the RCMP in probes into alleged PRC "police station" activity in Richmond, where no charges have been laid.

Pan, a prominent Liberal donor, was featured in The Globe and Mail's reporting on wealthy Chinese immigrants hosting fundraisers attended by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In his defamation case against Gao, Pan was awarded $1 in damages after B.C. Supreme Court Justice Neena Sharma rebuked his conduct, writing that she had "serious concerns" about his credibility.

In the subsequent Surrey neighborhood-siege case, civil pleadings and video evidence show Gao alleging an extended campaign by New Federal State of China demonstrators, including Esther Mei and Cheng Hu, outside his residence, followed by online amplification.

Gao's claim states that from September 15, 2020, to December 3, 2020, and from January 20 to 25, 2023, the defendants appeared in front of his home, holding signs declaring "Gao Bingchen is a spy of the Chinese Communist Party." The filing names several individuals, including the Richmond couple linked to the Missouri trailer park.

With this network's legal connections to Miles Guo — also established in B.C. court records reviewed by the Daily Caller — the rabbit hole deepens. The NFSC formally launched in 2020, and Guo was convicted in New York in 2024 in a billion-dollar fraud case. A U.S. bankruptcy adversary filing lists Vancouver Sailing Farm Ltd. among defendants, a documented Canadian arm within the Guo-linked network. Guo has publicly described intelligence "affiliations" and proximity to senior Chinese security figures.

As I reported in Wilful Blindness (pp. 72–78), fugitive smuggling tycoon Lai Changxing — who migrated to Vancouver and was long alleged by police to have Big Circle Boys ties — operated within a PLA military-intelligence milieu overseen by Maj. Gen. Ji Shengde, later purged amid the Yuanhua scandal. U.S. fundraiser Johnny Chung testified that Ji directed $300,000 toward the 1996 Clinton campaign, and Miles Guo has claimed close ties to both Lai and Ji, saying he was asked by Ji to assist the PLA's 2nd Department — a characterization he later repeated in interviews describing himself as an "affiliate" of Chinese state security.

If the Missouri trailer-park findings ultimately confirm Chinese-state adjacency through direct links to Vancouver-based property owners, they would fit a well-established Canadian pattern.

Historian Dennis Molinaro's Under Assault traces how Beijing has repeatedly used Canada as a staging ground to reach its true strategic target — the United States. He charts a progression from political influence and industrial theft to targeted scientific infiltration, often leveraging patriotic sentiment and financial inducements within the overseas Chinese diaspora.

The book revisits Su Bin's Boeing-theft case from Vancouver and a Toronto conduit for U.S. Tesla battery IP — both examples where Canadian enforcement followed only after U.S. intervention.

Su Bin — arrested in Richmond, B.C., in 2014 and later extradited — admitted conspiring with China-based accomplices tied to the People's Liberation Army to hack major U.S. defense contractors for export-controlled data on flagship air programs, including Boeing's C-17 Globemaster III and, by tasking, the F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters. He pleaded guilty in March 2016 and was sentenced to 46 months that July, with the plea acknowledging a years-long operation to steal sensitive military information and transmit it to China in violation of computer-intrusion and Arms Export Control statutes.

As former FBI agent Justin Vallese — cited by Molinaro — said after Su Bin's conviction, he "didn't know how many Su Bins there are."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/11/2025 - 20:55