Trump Says US Will Begin Strikes On Cartels In Mexico

Authored by Joseph Lord and Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced in an interview aired Jan. 8 that the United States would begin launching strikes on cartels in Mexico.

“We knocked out 97 percent of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting land with regard with the cartels,” Trump told Sean Hannity from Fox News.

“The cartels are running Mexico. It’s very sad to watch and see what’s happened to that country.

“They’re killing 250,000, 300,000 in our country every single year.”

The announcement comes just five days after Trump ordered an operation to capture and remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to the United States to face criminal charges, including narco-terrorism.

Trump gave a warning to several Latin American countries following the U.S. strike on Venezuela and Maduro’s capture.

The president also warned Mexico on Sunday that it needs to “get its act together,” referring to drug cartels operating in the country.

“You have to do something with Mexico,” Trump told reporters during his trip back to Washington from Florida. “We’re going to have to do something. We’d love Mexico to do it; they’re capable of doing it, but unfortunately, the cartels are very strong in Mexico.”

Trump said that he had spoken to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on a number of occasions, saying that the United States has offered to send troops into her country. However, he described her as “afraid” and that the “cartels are running Mexico,” not her

Mexico has repeatedly opposed U.S. proposals to fight drug cartels in the country.

“We categorically reject intervention in the internal affairs of other countries,” Sheinbaum said during her daily morning press conference on Monday. “The history of Latin America is clear and compelling: Intervention has never brought democracy, never generated well-being, nor lasting stability.”

Trump’s administration has intensified anti-cartel measures, including designating Mexican syndicates as terrorist organizations, a step he announced years ago. Officials say sea-based trafficking has been nearly halted, prompting a pivot to land operations.

Trump has previously said no formal war declaration is necessary.

“I think we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country,” Trump said on Oct. 23, 2025.

U.S. officials have linked cartels to tens of thousands of American overdose deaths annually. Trump has criticized Sheinbaum for declining U.S. offers to dismantle the cartels.

Trump did not give a timeline for land strikes against cartels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 17:15

Rio Tinto And Glencore In Talks To Form World's Largest Mining Company With $200 Billion Valuation

Are we on the cusp of an M&A boom in metals and commodities, with prices continuing to soar? Or are deals just easier to get through under a new administration?

Regardless, Rio Tinto and Glencore have reopened merger talks that could create the world’s largest mining company, with a combined valuation exceeding $200 billion — more than a year after earlier negotiations collapsed, according to Yahoo.

The companies confirmed Thursday that they are discussing various deal structures, including an all-share takeover covering part or all of Glencore’s business. The market reacted swiftly: Glencore shares jumped about 10% in London, while Rio slipped more than 2%.

If completed, the transaction would eclipse any previous mining merger and create a giant capable of rivaling BHP. Copper is the central prize. With prices recently surging above $13,000 a ton amid supply disruptions and tariff fears, mining executives increasingly see copper as the industry’s most strategic asset. “It makes a lot of sense,” said Ben Cleary of Tribeca Investment Partners. “It’s the one big deliverable mining deal out there.”

Yahoo writes that for Rio, absorbing Glencore would sharply expand copper output and provide access to prized assets such as Chile’s Collahuasi mine. The move would also help reduce dependence on iron ore as China’s construction boom fades.

Although analysts have questioned whether Rio would accept Glencore’s large coal business, people familiar with the talks say Rio is now open to keeping it — at least initially — and could divest later. No final structure has been agreed.

The renewed talks follow major changes at both firms. Rio has a new chief executive, Simon Trott, who has emphasized cost discipline and simplification, while Glencore has highlighted plans to nearly double copper production over the next decade. In private, Glencore CEO Gary Nagle has described a tie-up with Rio as the most logical deal in the sector.

“This is Simon’s first test as CEO and I would expect his disciplined approach to be carried through to M&A,” said John Ayoub of Wilson Asset Management.

The discussions come amid a broader wave of consolidation after Anglo American’s deal for Teck Resources and earlier takeover interest from BHP. Under UK rules, Rio must decide by Feb. 5 whether to proceed or step back for six months.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 14:25

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q3 2025, mortgage debt increased $108 billion, unchanged from $108 billion in Q2. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

Micro Greenland Lender Whipsaws As Trump Headlines Ignite Investor Frenzy

Shares of a Nuuk-based commercial bank, founded in 1967 to serve Greenland's private and corporate customers, have surged sharply as investors speculate that President Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" to secure the Western Hemisphere could ultimately involve acquiring Greenland.

The 42% rally in Bank of Greenland shares this year, which has since retraced roughly 20% of those gains, has been entirely headline-driven, linked to the Trump administration's efforts to acquire the mineral-rich, strategically located territory in North America, rather than by fundamentals.

Per Hansen, an investment economist at Nordnet Bank AB, said investors were piling into Bank of Greenland shares on the OMX Copenhagen Mid Cap Index, whose market capitalization stands at around 1.91 billion kroner ($298 million).

"Greenland could see massive investment," Hansen said. "I do not know, and investors do not know, what will happen, but it might happen. More investment means more business buzz."

In other words, investors are buying Bank of Greenland shares first and asking questions later.

Nuuk, Greenland

Overnight, Reuters reported that the Trump administration has considered sending lump-sum payments of up to $100,000 to Greenlanders in exchange for a vote to secede from Denmark and join the United States.

Trump has cited several reasons for acquiring Greenland, including its mineral wealth for military applications and the need for the Western Hemisphere to fall under Washington's geopolitical influence.

Hmm. 

The simple diplomatic solution is Barron Trump marries Princess Isabella of Denmark and Greenland is given to America as dowry payment pic.twitter.com/fhs3b6IDZG

— miss white (@cinecitta2030) January 7, 2026

The Bank of Greenland stock frenzy also follows recent U.S. regime-change operations in Venezuela that removed socialist leader Nicolás Maduro roughly a week ago, reinforcing perceptions of a more interventionist U.S. posture in the Western Hemisphere aimed at pushing China and Russia out of the region and dismantling socialist and Marxist regimes seen as plundering the wealth of nations. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 14:05

Seattle Judge Blocks Health Department From Rejecting Head Start Grants With DEI Terms

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) must stop requiring that grant applications not include terms related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), including the term “pregnant people,” under a new order from a federal judge.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivers remarks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 16, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

They are also enjoined from firing any more Office of Head Start employees and closing regional offices.

HHS has said it does not comment on litigation.

The decision “ensures that Head Start providers can provide early education to children from diverse communities and backgrounds without the constant threat of being punished simply for following the requirements of the law,” Jennie Mauer, executive director of the Wisconsin Head Start Association, said in a statement.

Head Start is a federally funded program that provides care across some 17,711 centers to about 750,000 children from low-income families.

The lawsuit was filed by the American Civil Liberties Union over several actions taken by HHS in response to President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2025, executive order banning “diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility“ and the “indoctrination of gender ideology.”

HHS, in an updated policy on grants, required applicants to certify they would not operate programs that advance DEI or discriminatory ideology.

According to court filings, HHS later returned applications with instructions to remove certain terms, including the terms “pregnant people,” “chestfeeding,” and “diversity.”

HHS also said that a Head Start center on an American Indian reservation in Washington state should remove eligibility criteria, which prioritized children from Indian families.

“Based on these instructions from the Office of Head Start, the program does not know what criteria it is supposed to use to determine enrollment for the program going forward,” Joel Ryan, executive director of the Washington State Association of Head Start and Early Childhood Assistance and Education Program, said in a filing.

The defendants told Martinez that they withdrew the certification requirement, making that challenge moot, and that plaintiffs had not shown the requirement, the mandated removal of DEI terms, and layoffs at the Office of Head Start caused the plaintiffs harm.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 13:25

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.3 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  
Net worth increased $6.1 trillion in Q3.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is still below the peak in 2021.
This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q3 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 71.6% - down from 72.0% in Q2, 2025

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $108 billion in Q3.

Mortgage debt is up $2.99 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 43.9% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

"Screwing Us Over... Again": Shale Producers Furious Over Trump's Venezuela Plan To Lower Crude Prices

President Trump is meeting with oil bosses on Friday, but shale producers aren't necessarily happy about the development of driving crude prices down via expanding into Venezuela. 

In fact, independent U.S. drillers are warning President Donald Trump that his push to revive Venezuela’s oil industry — and drive prices lower — could cripple American production, according to FT.

Many shale leaders, excluded from that meeting, say the White House is abandoning domestic producers by opening the door to a flood of Venezuelan crude. “We’re talking about this administration screwing us over again,” one senior executive said, calling the strategy “against American producers.” Another warned: “If the US government starts providing guarantees to oil companies to produce or grow oil production in Venezuela I’m going to be . . . pissed.”

The anger is deep in Texas, where many executives backed Trump’s return and now describe the shift as a “betrayal.”

Kirk Edwards, chief executive of Latigo Petroleum, said:

“To me, the signal from the administration is: we’d rather spend our American money on propping up a Venezuelan oil business than supporting our current independent businesses.”

FT writes that pressure is already building. The number of active U.S. rigs has fallen to 412, down 15% in a year, and the Energy Information Administration expects U.S. output to drop in 2026 — the first annual decline since the pandemic. With West Texas Intermediate below $56 a barrel and many shale producers needing prices above $60 to break even, the industry is under strain.

Meanwhile, new supply risks loom. OPEC producers are adding output, and Trump has made clear he wants cheaper oil and gasoline as the midterms approach. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Venezuela’s production could jump 50% within a year. “I think you’ll see more downward pressure on the price of gasoline,” he told Fox News.

Executives say Wright is now “just toeing the party line,” and the frustration ultimately lands on Trump. “He’s definitely not pro oil as far as independent oil companies’ survival and vibrancy,” one Midland executive said. “The message will have to come in US production declining.”

Markets are reacting. Shares of Diamondback Energy, APA Corp and Devon Energy each fell as much as 9% this week. “Somebody’s looking at these stocks today going, why would I own this if in a few years, they’re going to be competing against Venezuela for oil, for our refineries in the United States?” Edwards said.

Outrage intensified after Trump suggested taxpayers could help reimburse companies investing in Venezuela. “We should not subsidise the big companies in trying to retool Venezuela’s infrastructure and develop their reserves for them,” another shale executive said, adding Trump does not “give a damn if they went bankrupt” and is content to see them “drill their way into oblivion.”

Analysts say the divide favors the largest firms. “All of this points to the advantage of being larger,” said Maynard Holt of Veriten. “Because many of the opportunities that are coming — whether it’s Venezuela or Algeria or some other complicated place — you will be able to consider them more seriously the larger you are.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 12:45

The Price Of Trump's "Greenland New Deal": $100,000 Per Person

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

President Trump has called for a 50% increase of the US defense budget, to $1.5 trillion by next year. This should suffice to build a “Dream Military.” The president argues this is required to keep the US safe and secure, but will it keep his own political position safe? Trump’s new military focus is creating more friction in Congress, as well as between the US and its allies.

Trump argued that tariff revenues can “easily” pay for a bigger defense budget, but the CBO has estimated that tariff revenues will only generate about half of the president’s planned increase in military expenditures. And that assumes these revenues will keep flowing. Trump could face a setback on that front as early as today (see below).

Even if tariff revenues keep coming in, Trump’s plans could renew concerns about the sustainability of the US’ finances. Cuts in other parts of government might be an option on paper, but Trump does need congressional support for this. And the House of Representatives has just passed legislation on a spending bill that waters down many of Trump’s budget cuts – including restoring Obamacare subsidies for three years – as lawmakers seek to avoid another shutdown by the end of the month.

In international political circles, there is less alarm about the US’ fiscal prudence than there are concerns about what the president may want to use such an expanded military apparatus for. Despite his platform of noninterventionism, Trump has already been more active on the world stage than during his first term.

Yesterday, the US president suggested that military operations in Venezuela – or the wider region? – are not over after the quick capture of President Maduro last weekend: “we’ve knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting the land.”

Congress is pushing back against further strikes. Five Republican senators joined with the Democrats to advance a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to take further military action in Venezuela without congressional approval.

However, for the war powers resolution to have any effect, it must first pass a final vote in Senate and it must then still pass the House – and with support from more than a handful of Republicans: President Trump could veto the bill unless it gets a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress. More importantly, the bill focuses on military operations in Venezuela.

That still leaves countries like Mexico, which “is being run by cartels” according to Trump, or Colombia at risk. Several senators have said they plan to introduce similar resolutions for other countries (e.g., Greenland, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Nigeria). However, these have not been included in the current resolution due to Senate rules requiring country-specific legislation.

And then there is the Arctic. At the start of this week, Trump reiterated his plans to acquire Greenland, and he has since not let go of the idea. The US president may prefer to buy the country. According to Reuters’ sources, US officials have discussed lump sum payments of $10,000 to $100,000 per Greenlander in order to convince them to become part of the United States. However, that’s just one plan, and Trump has not ruled out military means to get what he wants.

"with a population of only around 50,000, one might imagine a thought experiment where, for the low, low price of $50 billion, Trump offers every Greenlander $1 million in exchange for their country. That might prove more attractive." - Rabobank

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 6, 2026

European deterrence is limited. In fact, the EU must be careful not to alienate the country that they still need to safeguard their own security. Zelenskyy had just claimed an agreement on security guarantees, which was ready for finalization with the US president, but Russia has already rejected a European peacekeeping force in the country –a key part of the proposal– as an immediate threat to Russian security.

So, the EU may still try to change Trump’s mind through diplomacy. Denmark has already agreed to give the US military extensive access to Greenland. Perhaps a buildup of EU military presence in the Arctic could reassure the US that Europe can help to keep the region safe. But that would be another drain on the EU’s limited resources, and it remains to be seen whether this is enough to convince the US president. Canada will probably be watching this space anxiously too.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 12:25

Trump Cancels 2nd Wave Of Strikes On 'Cooperative' Venezuela - Political Prisoners Freed

The post-Maduro Venezuelan government has begun releasing political prisoners as a gesture of 'good will' to the United States, signaling that the new Delcy Rodriguez government is ready to play nice with Trump. There are reasons to believe that this former Maduro number two (as his vice president) had cooperated with the CIA to hand the longtime Venezuelan president and socialist strongman over to invading American forces during last Friday night's raid.

President Trump said early Friday that he had cancelled a "previously expected" second wave of attacks on the Latin American country as Caracas is now cooperating with the US. It must be recalled that soon after the attack which ousted Maduro and brought him into US custody, Trump had warned, "We are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so. He added: "We actually assumed that a second wave would be necessary, but now it’s probably not." Presumably this meant cartel targets, but this brings up the question: where are all the 'narco-terrorists' and did they magically disappear now that Maduro was taken out?

via AP

In a Friday Truth Social post, the president emphasized the White House and new Caracas authorities are "working well together, especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better, and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure."

"Because of this cooperation, I have cancelled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks, which looks like it will not be needed, however, all ships will stay in place for safety and security purposes," he added.

Trump confirmed that the government is busy "releasing large numbers of political prisoners as a sign of ‘Seeking Peace,'" adding, "This is a very important and smart gesture." Local news footage also appeared to verify this - a longtime demand of Washington and its allies in Europe.

AFP reports: Venezuela begins releasing a "large number" of political prisoners, including several foreigners, in an apparent concession to the United States after its ouster of ruler Nicolas Maduro

Venezuela begins releasing a "large number" of political prisoners, including several foreigners, in an apparent concession to the United States after its ouster of ruler Nicolas Madurohttps://t.co/EWfcPTLkzq pic.twitter.com/LZtPaZRgA1

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 9, 2026

The head of the country's National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, announced the release of a "significant number" of political prisoners, which is being taken to mean by outside observers that this is most, if not all, political prisoners which the US has demanded the release of.

One prominent name among those reportedly freed is the following:

Rocío San Miguel, a vocal critic of Maduro and a defense expert, was the first prisoner confirmed to be freed. Her family told the New York Times that she was taken to the Spanish embassy in Caracas.

Arrested in 2024, she was accused of being involved in a plot to kill the then-president and faced charges of treason, conspiracy and terrorism. Her arrest shocked human rights activists and, because her whereabouts were unknown, was labelled as potential "enforced disappearance" by the UN Human Rights Office.

As for Trump's claim that he has called off a 'second strike' - there's as yet no real evidence that the Pentagon was actually preparing such a new offensive, but heavy US assets are certainly still in the region and in regional waters. Trump could be bluffing on this, and very likely is, in order to keep Caracas on edge and cooperative.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 12:05

GM Cuts EV Exposure After Policy Shift, Takes $6B Charge

Imagine all of the malinvestment that took place in autos, on EVs, thank to the government distorting markets and forcing EV adoption when genuine demand may not have been robust. Now, we're seeing the consequences of returning to a freer market.

General Motors will record a $6 billion charge after scaling back several electric-vehicle projects, reflecting both weaker demand and the impact of new federal policies under President Donald Trump, according to Reuters.

Most of the charge — $4.2 billion in cash — stems from terminating contracts and compensating suppliers that had prepared for higher EV production. GM said the charge will appear as a special item in its fourth-quarter earnings. Additional costs are expected in 2026 but will be smaller than the current year’s EV-related charges.

Despite the pullback, the company said its U.S. lineup of about a dozen EVs remains intact: “We plan to continue to make these models available to consumers.”

GM’s announcement follows Ford’s much larger move in December, when it revealed a $19.5 billion writedown after canceling several EV programs. Ford CEO Jim Farley said at the time: “When the market really changed over the last couple of months, that was really the impetus for us to make the call.”

Automakers across the industry began retreating from aggressive EV expansion last summer after a sweeping Trump tax and spending package and the elimination on September 30 of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which triggered a sharp drop in sales. GM’s EV deliveries fell 43% in the fourth quarter, after customers had rushed purchases before the credit expired.

Reuters writes that while GM once pledged to phase out gasoline vehicles by 2035, analysts have since lowered long-term EV forecasts. GM CEO Mary Barra has said the company will adjust based on customer demand.

The company has already slowed EV operations: halting battery production at two joint-venture plants, cutting shifts at its Detroit EV factory, and repurposing a planned Michigan EV facility to build gas-powered pickups and the Cadillac Escalade. GM also disclosed a separate $1.1 billion charge tied to restructuring its China joint venture.

Some analysts question GM’s heavy focus on fully electric vehicles. CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson warned: "GM’s lack of hybrid exposure could partially reverse recent market share gains," citing surging hybrid demand.

Industrywide, EV sales growth has slowed dramatically. Research firm Omdia reported U.S. EV sales rose just 1.2% in 2025, and Edmunds projects EVs will represent about 6% of U.S. vehicle sales in 2026, down from 7.4% last year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:40

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

A brief excerpt:

Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data.
...
The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 7.8% in October compared to October 2024.

Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.0% YTD and multi-family up 18.0% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

UMich Confidence Rebounds In January Off Record Lows As Tariff Fears Abate

Having ended 2025 at the lowest Current Conditions Sentiment levels in, well, ever... expectations for preliminary January data were for a modest rebound... and it did (very modestly).

• The preliminary January sentiment index climbed to 54 from 52.9 in December, according to the University of Michigan (better than the 53.5 expected).

• The expectations index rose to a five-month high of 55. The survey reflected improvements in both the short- and long-term economic outlooks.

• The current conditions gauge climbed to a three-month high after slipping to a record-low in December. Consumers’ perception of their current financial situation improved in January, while expectations declined.

Source: Bloomberg

Short-term inflation expectations were flat while longer-term rebounded modestly...

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats appear to be slowly but surely realizing all the Trump tariff fears projected up on them were just wrong. Republicans appear to be primed for deflation - but the gap remains huge (1% vs 5%)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a longer term basis, Democrats really abandoned their fears... Rather oddly, all of the political cohorts saw longer-term inflation expectations lower BUT overall inflation expectations rose on the month?

Source: Bloomberg

If Democrats are right, shit's about to get real...

Source: Bloomberg

The always unbiased UMich commentary makes sure to balance the positives of an admission that tariffs fears tumbled with some subjective view of the economy (as sentiment improved)

“Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labor markets,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

The Michigan survey showed consumer views on the labor market remain soft, with nearly two-thirds expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead. Concerns about joblessness have been worse among higher-educated and higher-income Americans than for other consumers.

UMich also makes a point of noting that more than 90% of interviews for this release were collected prior to the capture of Maduro in Venezuela.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:17

Happening Today: Trump Meeting With US Oil Execs From Exxon, Shell, Others, To Discuss Venezuela

President Trump is convening top oil executives at the White House on Friday as part of a push to steer U.S. companies toward investing in Venezuela’s struggling oil industry, CBS reported today.

Leaders from Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Continental, Halliburton, HKN, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Trafigura, Vitol Americas, Repsol, Eni, Aspect Holdings, Tallgrass, Raisa Energy and Hilcorp are expected to attend, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Wright has already held separate talks with several executives earlier in the week.

According to the White House, the discussions will center on “investment opportunities that will restore Venezuelan oil infrastructure.”

Trump has argued that Venezuela’s vast oil reserves could help revive its economy while also benefiting U.S. consumers and energy companies. In a recent interview, he said he wants companies to commit at least $100 billion to “rebuild the whole oil infrastructure” in the country.

The administration has tightened pressure on Venezuela through a new oil “quarantine,” including the seizure of another tanker Friday, the fifth such action in recent weeks. Rubio said the strategy gives the U.S. “tremendous leverage” and that Washington plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude on the open market, with the proceeds under U.S. control.

Chevron remains the only major U.S. oil producer still operating in Venezuela after the industry was nationalized under Hugo Chávez, and it is unclear how quickly other firms would move in. Analysts caution that high costs, political uncertainty and Venezuela’s history of asset seizures could slow new investment. Venezuelan crude is also heavy and more difficult to refine, though some Gulf Coast refineries are equipped to handle it.

Recall, we wrote Energy Sec. Chris Wright will be in Miami for the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference, a major industry gathering that will bring together executives from Chevron, ConocoPhillips and other producers. Chevron remains the only global oil supermajor maintaining operations inside Venezuela.

Bloomberg writes that despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven crude reserves, experts estimate restoring its oil system would require approximately $10 billion in investment every year for the next decade.

Industry participants say interest in the country is real, but the recent removal of President Nicolás Maduro alone is not enough to unlock capital. Companies want clarity on whether a durable government will emerge, whether contracts and the rule of law will be respected, and whether US political support for their presence in Venezuela will extend beyond Trump’s term in office.

Earlier this week we wrote that President Donald Trump said the US may subsidize American oil companies to help rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector, arguing the plan would strengthen Venezuela’s recovery and protect US economic interests after the removal of Nicolás Maduro.

In an interview with NBC News on Monday, Trump said US firms could have expanded operations in the country “up and running” in less than 18 months — a timeline that sharply conflicts with expert estimates that reconstruction could take a decade and cost more than $100 billion.

“I think we can do it in less time than that, but it’ll be a lot of money,” Trump said. “A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:05

US Adds Only 50K Jobs In December, Missing Estimates, But Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.4%

Ahead of today's jobs report, expectations were that the NFP number would show another rebound from the terrible Sept/Oct prints, but remain muted (or else spark fears about reheating and an end to the Fed's easing cycle). Well, that's precisely what we got moments ago when the BLS reported that in December the US gained 50K jobs, a modest miss to estimates of 50K, but smack in the middle of JPM's sweet spot range of 35K-75K (as previewed earlier) which would be best for the market.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported. Notably, as shown in the chart below, the initial NFP print has now been revised lower in every single month of 2025.

While there was NFP print was on the weak side, there was a modest improvement in the unemployment rate, which dipped from a downward revised 4.5% (was 4.6% originally) to 4.4%, which still is the highest since 2021, save for Nov 2025. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men was 3.9%, adult women 3.9%, teenagers 15.7%, Whites 3.8%, Blacks 7.5%, Asians 3.6%, and Hispanics 4.9%.

Labor force participation dipped fractionally from 62.5% to 62.4%, in line with estimates. The employment-population ratio,  at 59.7%, was also unchanged in December. These measures have shown little change over the year.

While jobs came on the cool side, hourly earnings came slightly hot: rising 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2% in November (and in line with estimates), this translates to a 3.8% increase YoY, up from 3.6% and above the 3.6% expected.

Some more details from the report:

• The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks edged down to 2.3 million in December. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little over the month at 1.9 million but is up by 397,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 26.0 percent of all unemployed people in December. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 6.2 million in December but is up by 684,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in December. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 183,000 in December to 461,000. 

Taking a closer look at the Establishment survey, we find that employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025 (an average monthly gain of 49,000), less than the increase of 2.0 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 168,000). Here is the breakdown:

• Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in December (+27,000). Food services and drinking places added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2025, similar to the average increase of 11,000 jobs per month in 2024.
• Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by an average of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024.
• In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000). 
• Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail  trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. 
• Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.) 
• Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services.

And the visual breakdown:

Elsewhere, there were some notable improvements in other qualitative metrics we track, including the full/part-time breakdown, where last month's ugly push to Part-Time jobs was almost entirely reversed as full-time jobs rose 890K to 135.215MM, offset by a 740K plunge in part-time jobs -740K to 28.712MM...

... while the number of multiple jobholders slumped by 444K - the second biggest drop since Covid - to 8.848MM.

And one red flag: the number of native-born workers dropped by 656K to 132.6 million, while foreign-born workers rose by 310K to 32.426 million, a modest reversal of the trends observed in 2025.

Commenting on the data, TradeStation's head of market strategy, David Russell said that "the labor market has reached an equilibrium after a year of policy shocks. There are no red flags compelling the Fed to cut now. Inflation is a bigger factor on rates than employment, which focuses attention on next week’s CPI. Investors may see less impact from macro-level data in the next few months and more impact from company-level events like earnings."

Overall, this was a goldilocks report: neither too hot (with NFP missing) nor too cold (as unemp rate dropped), which leaves the Fed on autopilot and likely to cut at least 2 more times this year, absent any major changes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:00

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 347,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 876,000; this is 0.5 percent below the revised September figure of 880,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in October.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in October.   Multi-family starts were down 7.9% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased in October and were down 7.8% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

Total housing starts in October were well below expectations.   We are still missing data for November due to the government shutdown.

I'll have more later …

Supreme Court Skips Tariff Ruling

Update (1004ET): The USSC did not rule on tariffs Monday, instead issuing a ruling on Bowe vs. United States - concerning whether federal prisoners can ask the Supreme Court to review their sentences. The case was sent back to a lower court.

And so, we wait. Wednesday is scheduled for the next round of opinions.

*  *  *

The US Supreme Court may rule today on the legality of President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, marking a major test of presidential powers. Specifically, the Court is considering whether Trump's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) - which constitute about half of the tariffs we've seen under Trump.

As we noted yesterday, the court never says in advance which decisions are ready for release, only that rulings in argued cases are possible when the justices take the bench at 10:00 a.m. Washington time. That said, a tariff decision is a possibility given the court’s expedited handling of the case so far.

Trump invoked IEEPA to impose his 'reciprocal' tariffs on nearly every foreign trade partner to address what he called a national emergency over US trade deficits. He invoked it again to impose tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico over fentanyl trafficking into the United States. 

During arguments on Nov. 5, the court seemed skeptical over Trump's authority to use IEEPA, leading most observers observers, including betting markets, to conclude a high probability they're struck down at least in part. The Trump administration is appealing lower court rulings that he overstepped his authority, while Trump himself said a Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs would be a "terrible blow" to the United States.

That said, even if that happens, the Trump administration has several other legal avenues they can pursue. As Deutsche Bank notes; 

For instance, the sectoral tariffs (e.g. on steel and aluminum) aren’t covered by the court ruling, whilst another option would be to use Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which permits temporary 15% tariffs for 150 days. 

 And Goldman:

This won’t be the end of tariffs… the administration will almost certainly roll out alternative legal frameworks. Net result is probably slightly fewer tariffs, materially more trade uncertainty, and some incremental deficit concerns. Net-net, that’s mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds… but largely priced for both.

The cases under consideration by the Supremes were brought by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 mostly blue US states. 

The opinions will be available here.

Customs Gets Ready

In anticipation of a ruling against the tariffs, US Customs has set a new deadline for US importers to file for electronic refunds: February 6th.

The agency also published details of a new process on Jan. 2, which was established as part of a March 24 Trump executive order on modernizing government payments and phasing out physical checks, CNBC reports.

The new digital Customs system is called ACE (Automated Commercial Environment), a secure electronic portal allowing businesses to file import/export data, manage trade information, and comply with regulations. ACE will manage the ACH refunds.

Prior to this, importers had to manually set up an account in the ACH network with Customs to pay duties or receive funds by email. Once that email was received by Customs, someone in the agency had to enter the data and then confirm the account had been set up, according to Lori Mullins, director of operations at Rogers & Brown Custom Brokers.

The Court is also considering cases involving the 1965 Voting Rights Act, and a Colorado law banning psychotherapists from conducting "conversion therapy" to try and un-gay a child. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 09:55

"World's Criminals On Notice": Trump's Gunboat Diplomacy Seizes Another Tanker In Caribbean

Update (0930ET):

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem confirmed that U.S. Coast Guard forces "executed a boarding and seizure" of the motor tanker Olina in international waters east of the Caribbean Sea.

Noem said Olina was part of a vast network of so-called "ghost fleet" tankers suspected of carrying embargoed oil. She stated that the ship had departed Venezuela and was attempting to evade U.S. forces.

She added that the operation was conducted in close coordination with the Department of Defense, the State Department, and the Department of Justice.

"The ghost fleets will not outrun justice. They will not hide under false claims of nationality. The Coast Guard will seize sanctioned oil tankers, enforce U.S. and international law, and eliminate these funding streams for illicit activity, including narco-terrorism," Noem said.

The world’s criminals are on notice.

Early this morning, the @USCG executed a boarding and seizure of the Motor Tanker Olina in international waters east of the Caribbean Sea. As another "ghost fleet" tanker ship suspected of carrying embargoed oil, this vessel had departed… pic.twitter.com/vvS3u3nrvl

— Secretary Kristi Noem (@Sec_Noem) January 9, 2026

U.S. forces, under President Trump's Western Hemisphere reposturing and gunboat diplomacy against Venezuela, have now seized five tankers. We expect these seizures to increase as efforts to dismantle this tanker network expand.

Trump has requested a 50% increase in the U.S. military budget to $1.5 trillion by 2027, suggesting that pushing China and Russia out of the Western Hemisphere and asserting control in what is called 'Donroe Doctrine' will come at high cost.

*   *   * 

The foreign policy move to dismantle the so-called "dark fleet" of crude oil tankers moving Venezuela's oil around the world, through President Trump's gunboat diplomacy to secure the Western Hemisphere, was once again on full display on Friday morning.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Coast Guard forces boarded a fifth oil tanker, Olina, as part of a widening blockade targeting sanctioned dark-fleet vessels.

Olina, previously sanctioned for transporting Russian oil, was last tracked near Venezuela.

OLINA (9282479) belongs to an extremely exclusive club of naughty tankers. pic.twitter.com/9yKRziKvat

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) January 9, 2026

The seizure of Olina is likely to further ignite tensions between Washington and Moscow, days after the US seized Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic. Russia previously told the US not to seize Bella 1, which was shadowed by Russian Navy assets.

Latest from the Western Hemisphere:

• Donroe Doctrine: US Seizes Russian-Flagged Tanker In Atlantic, Intercepts Dark-Fleet Ship In Caribbean

• Chevron Contracts 11 Tankers For Venezuela Port Calls As Don-Roe Doctrine Begins

• The "Don-Roe Doctrine" Has Already Set The Tone For 2026

• White House Mulls Payments Up To $100,000 Per Greenlander To Join US

• US Plans To Keep Troops In Caribbean Through 2028, Planning Docs Show

The Trump administration is using these seizures to dismantle Venezuela's dark fleet of about 1,000 tankers that evade sanctions - a network that carries about 70% of the country's oil exports, much of which ends up in Asia.

Marco Rubio said earlier this week that the blockade provides maximum leverage over Caracas, while also warning Russia, China, and Iran against backing Venezuela. This gunboat diplomacy is supported by the U.S. Navy, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, and backed by Justice Department resources, signaling that more tanker seizures are just ahead.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 09:30

Meta Signs Massive Nuclear Energy Deal

Meta revealed this morning a slew of new agreements with key players in the nuclear power industry, in an urgent bid to provide clean energy for its rapidly expanding data center empire.

The initial plan is to offtake over 2000 MW of power from nuclear power plants owned by Vistra energy in Ohio, assist with fast tracking two reactors from TerraPower, and send a pre-payment to Oklo for securing nuclear fuel and advancing the first stage of a project in Ohio.

Shares of VST and OKLO spiked about 10% and 20%, respectively, in the premarket.

As we’ve noted repeatedly over the past year, there never seems to be enough power for data centers, which is why today's agreement is likely just the first step of many such deals. This latest plan unveils a roadmap for upwards of 6.6 GW of power, enough to power about 5 million American homes.

Instead, Meta will thankfully be using this new power for a higher calling: ensuring you get just the right ads on your Instagram feed coupled with more AI slop videos. Why pay for rent when you can have targeted advertising, sending you power bills sharply higher?

Impressively claiming that multiple gigawatts of nuclear energy isn’t enough, the 20-year power purchase agreement with Vistra will be used to finance over 400 MW of power up rates at existing nuclear plants in Ohio in Pennsylvania.

While keeping to the nuclear theme but executing a heavy shift from time-tested light water reactors to comparatively untested liquid sodium reactors, Meta has also signed deals for additional expansion plans with Oklo and TerraPower after the initial phase described above.

Bill Gates' TerraPower will provide up to six additional reactor plants, which hold power peeking abilities of about 500 MW each, for Meta’s data centers. Oklo will also commence the development of their newly announced nuclear energy campus in Ohio with a goal of 1200 MW of sodium cooled reactor power production.

There seems to be an interesting split in the preference of technology between hyperscalers and the US government. The Department of Energy recently dumped $400 million each for light water reactor developers GE Vernova and Holtec for their 300 MW designs, while hyperscalers seem to be preferring light water only when they are already built and operating. Outside of the existing plants, the tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Meta have signed major agreements with the more novel plant designers with reactors in the liquid sodium and molten salt categories.

Even taking in account the billions of dollars invested in advanced nuclear, only half the headaches are addressed by conquering the engineering headaches of designing and constructing these novel plants. Consistent operations with high uptime could take years to master, as evidenced by how many decades it took the large light water reactor fleet to reach their golden 90%+capacity factor.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 09:26

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.
Earlier: December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in December at 83.8%% from 83.8% in November.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.
Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in December, up from 3.6% YoY in November. 
Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 5.34 million from 5.49 million in November.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and near the highest levels since mid-2021.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.4% from 8.7% in November. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.95 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.91 million in November.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000.  The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.
This was another weak employment report.  

Ukraine Hit With Oreshnik Hypersonic As Retaliation For Attempted 'Terror Attack' On Putin Residence

Russia launched another massive overnight strike on Ukraine using its hypersonic Oreshnik missile as part of a large-scale assault said to be retaliation for the alleged Ukrainian attempt to drone strike Putin's residence last month.

Kiev was hit hard in the fresh missile and drone attack which set apartment buildings on fire and killed at least four people. Importantly, Ukrainian officials said a ballistic missile traveling at hypersonic speed hit an "infrastructure facility" near the far western city of Lviv.

via AFP

Russia's Defense Ministry followed by confirming that it sent an Oreshnik hypersonic missile at "strategic targets" overnight, and specifically described that it was retaliation for the December drone strike on one of the residences of President Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine has rejected that it targeted the residence, and President Trump recently flipped his initial position that it happened. The White House now says it has more intelligence information, and Trump has expressed that while drones were in the area that night, Putin's residence was not directly targeted.

Former career State Dept official highlights the timing of the rare hypersonic missile strike on Ukraine, linking it with the latest Russian 'dark fleet' tanker seizure in the Atlantic:

Reports of #Oreshnik attacks in Lvov oblast, presumably is response to US seizure of a Russian ship & drone attacks on strategic targets in Russia.

The Russians are sending a message: See what we can do! Better back off! Are you listening now? Don't make us angry!

But the…

— Jim Jatras (@JimJatras) January 9, 2026

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that the ballistic missile traveled at roughly 13,000 kilometers (8,000 miles) per hour and was observed shortly before midnight (local).

NEW: Video reportedly showing the “Oreshnik” attack on Lviv. pic.twitter.com/FaCzTD461Z

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 8, 2026

The last well-publicized use of an Oreshnik missile with a conventional warhead by Russia had reportedly hit the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro in late 2024. Its use has marked a significant milestone in the war.

This new, rare hypersonic attack on Lviv - a city not very often targeted - also seems aimed at the West and NATO. The Kremlin is warning that it will not tolerate any 'peace plan' which features Western boots on the ground in Ukraine to 'monitor' a future ceasefire.

Any such deployment would be "considered legitimate military targets" - according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who also charged that Zelensky's American and European are forming an "axis of war."

Drones were observed flying low over Kiev for much of the night, terrifying residents...

Three people killed and six more injured by the Russian attack on Kyiv tonight.

The attack continues, Russian drones are all over the city, Kalibr missiles expected to strike soon. https://t.co/XSOLNpb4U9 pic.twitter.com/jrnRNa3Vpx

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 9, 2026

Ukrainian Mayor Vitali Klitschko called the damage in Kiev the result of a "massive enemy missile attack." According to the statement carried in Russian media:

The overnight bombardment was carried out in response to an attempted “terrorist attack by the Kiev regime” on the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Novgorod Region, the ministry said in a statement on Friday.

Further the Russian Defense Ministry said "The objectives of the strike have been achieved," adding that "None of the terrorist actions by the criminal Ukrainian regime will go unanswered." This puts peace on a far back seat, despite the latest Paris summit of European and world leaders.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 09:15