Futures Flat As Gold Selloff Extends

US equity futures are flat again, with tech and small caps lagging as traders parsed the latest earnings reports and corporate news amid worries over trade, the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks. Gold and silver extended declines after Tuesday’s slump. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were unchanged while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.2% after a rally on Wall Street lost steam. Pre-market, Mag7 names are mostly weaker ex-GOOG on its cloud deal. Netflix tumbled 6.8% in premarket trading after the streaming-video company reported third-quarter results that missed across the board despite stronger forecasts. Texas Instruments also plunged about 8% on an underwhelming outlook. Meme stocks are back, with Krispy Kreme among those joining Beyond Meat in the retail trader frenzy today. Mining stocks are weaker pre-market though gold and silver are bouncing off their overnight lows; both are underperforming platinum / palladium.  The yield curve shifts lower and the USD continues its recent move higher. USD is +2.5% since making a 52-wk low on Sep 16. The balance of the commodity complex is bid with WTI +1.7% the standout on report that US and India are nearing an accord that could lead India to reduce imports of Russian crude. US / China situation still has aides talking behind closed doors as Trump / Xi remain likely to meet next week. There is no macro today .

In premarket trading, Netflix and Texas Instruments shares are both lower after disappointing results, with Tesla and IBM among the big names to watch later. The EV maker is expected to post a 25% drop in quarterly profits — but traders may not care. The shares have more than doubled in the past year on AI hopes.

• Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower. Alphabet (GOOGL) rises 1.8% as Anthropic is in discussions with Google about a deal that would provide the artificial intelligence company with additional computing power valued in the high tens of billions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter (Tesla -0.2%, Nvidia +0.06%, Meta -0.1%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.6%, Amazon -1.3%).
• Alector (ALEC) tumbles 50% after the drug developer said a late-stage trial of its lead asset as an investigative treatment for dementia failed to meet a primary endpoint.
• AT&T Inc. (T) rises 1.4% after the company added more mobile-phone and home internet subscribers this summer than analysts expected.
• Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) gains 4% after Alkermes agreed to buy the company for up to $20 per share.
• Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) soars 85%, boosting its four-day rally to almost 1,300%, in an echo of the meme-stock frenzies that periodically roil the market.
• DraftKings (DKNG) climbs 3% after the sports betting company said it acquired predictions platform Railbird for an undisclosed amount.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) rallies 16% after the robotic-surgery company boosted its worldwide da Vinci procedure growth forecast for the full year.
• Manhattan Associates (MANH) falls 7% after the supply-chain software company posted a key metric — “remaining performance obligations” — for the third quarter that fell short of estimates.
• Mattel Inc. (MAT) is down 5% after the company reported third-quarter sales and earnings that missed analysts’ estimates as US retailers delayed orders due to uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
• Netflix (NFLX) falls 7% after the streaming-video company reported third-quarter results it said were hurt by a tax dispute with Brazil.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) drops 7% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is weaker than expected. The outlook indicates that some customers are slowing orders as they navigate mounting trade tensions.
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is up 6% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
• Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) gains 2% after saying it’s considering a possible sale of the company after receiving unsolicited interest from multiple parties. Netflix Inc. and Comcast Corp. are weighing bids for parts of the media and entertainment company, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

In other company news, Anthropic PBC is said to be in talks with Alphabet’s Google about a deal that would provide the AI company with additional computing power valued in the high tens of billions of dollars. Apple’s iPhone Air got a subdued response from consumers in China. 

Early US earnings point to the best corporate results in four years, with 85% of companies reporting beats. Despite recent de-risking amid concerns over trade and credit, stock exposure among global macro hedge funds and long-only strategies remains at the highest in over a year, according to Barclays Plc. Drawdowns have been short-lived as investors see them as opportunities to add risk to their portfolios.

Earnings will “play a decisive role in determining whether the rally can be sustained,” said Linh Tran, a market analyst at XS.com. “Profit expectations for major tech companies have been revised upward, while consumer and financial sectors may benefit from resilient demand and higher interest margins. If corporate results continue to outperform forecasts, this could help the S&P 500 extend its gains into Q4.”

Markets are also keeping one eye on trade news ahead of the resumption of US-China talks. Six months into Trump’s trade war, the resilience of Chinese exports is proving just how essential many of its products remain even after US levies of 55%.

Gold fell more than 2%, closing in on $4,000 an ounce and deepening its worst intraday drop in more than a dozen years in the previous session, amid concerns its rally had run too far, too fast. Silver also declined following Tuesday’s 7.1% fall. Gold's drop on Tuesday drove the VanEck Gold Miners ETF down 9.4% in its biggest drop since 2020. Still, gold mining stocks are still on track for their biggest ever annual gain over the S&P 500.

Bond traders are preparing for yields to drop further even as the 30-year sank to its lowest in six months on Tuesday. The cost of protection against a bigger decline in yields across the curve is rapidly rising, according to pricing of options wagers. Traders are piling into some risk-off assets as the US government shutdown becomes the second longest on record and amid renewed concerns over the credit market. Meanwhile, dollar trading has become unusually subdued, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remaining within one standard deviation of its average for about 80% of the time over the past 60 trading days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index dipped, with consumer products and services leading declines after results from L’Oreal SA, Hermes International SCA and Adidas AG failed to meet lofty expectations. Energy stocks led gains as crude oil rose. UK stocks got a boost with the FTSE 100 rising 0.7% after UK CPI surprised to the downside as traders ramp up bets on an interest-rate cut by the Bank of England before year end. Among companies reporting in Europe on Wednesday, Barclays Plc gained after raising its earnings guidance and unveiling a £500 million buyback. Akzo Nobel NV slumped after the paintmaker lowered its earnings outlook, with customers more hesitant to spend amid rising global tariffs and softer economic conditions. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday: 

• Precious metals miners in South Africa and Europe rose on Wednesday as gold and silver prices steadied, after suffering their steepest selloffs in years.
• Barclays shares rise as much as 4.1% after the UK lender increased its 2025 guidance and announced a £500 million share buyback, with investors looking beyond an increased provision for motor finance
• Heineken shares rise 2.3% as analysts say a soft quarterly print was no worse than expected. The company’s move of Ebit growth guidance to the lower end of the range had been foreseen, according to consensus views
• Handelsbanken gains as much as 2.1% after posting a slight beat to net interest income (NII) in its third-quarter report. Lower-than-expected costs also contributed to a solid showing from the Swedish lender
• European chipmakers slip on Wednesday after US peer Texas Instruments forecast 4Q sales below estimates, signaling a delay in the rebound of the automotive and industrial chip sector
• ITV shares plummet as much as 12% after the broadcaster’s largest shareholder Liberty Global cut its stake in half after offering shares at a discount
• L’Oreal shares fall as much as 8%, the steepest drop in a year, after the cosmetics company reported third-quarter like-for-like sales that fell short of elevated market expectations
• Hermes falls as much as 5% after sales at constant exchange rates for the third quarter showed double-digit growth in most regions, but key division leather goods slightly missed estimates, while valuation premium is stretched, according to analysts
• DNB Bank shares drop as much as 4.3%, the most since July, after the Norwegian lender posted a disappointing third-quarter report, according to analysts, who flagged misses on net interest income (NII) and fee
• Adidas shares dip as analysts say the sportswear maker’s increased full-year earnings forecast was only in-line with consensus and note a slight miss in third-quarter sales
• TeamViewer shares slump as much as 24% to a record low after the software maker reduced its annual recurring revenue guidance for this year and sales outlook for next year

Asian stocks fell, weighed down by technology shares as investors rushed to lock in gains amid doubts about the sector’s staying power.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6% before paring some losses, with TSMC, SoftBank Group and Alibaba among the biggest drags. Shares in Hong Kong and Vietnam declined, while South Korea’s Kospi rose.  Chipmakers and other AI-related stocks in Asia, including SoftBank, declined after Texas Instruments presented a disappointing outlook, which added to concerns that the sectors’ shares may have been running too hot. Precious-metal stocks also tumbled after gold and silver posted their steepest selloffs in years. The slide in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks came despite a bullish long-term call from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which predicted key stock gauges may gain 30% by the end of 2027. The strategists argued the upside will be supported by pro-market policies, rising profits and strong capital flows. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Bangkok Bank shares advance after the lender’s third-quarter net income rose 11% on year, beating the average analyst estimate, partly driven by investments.
• LG Chem Ltd. shares surged by the most in five years after Palliser Capital UK disclosed a stake in the firm and urged changes, in a sign that overseas activists are starting to wade back into South Korea.
• IHI shares climb as much as 5.5% to ¥2,995 after Mizuho Securities raised its target price to ¥3,300 from ¥1,071, saying it expects growth in the civil aero engines business and expansion of defense-related operations.
• Laopu Gold shares fall as much as 8.1%, the most since Sept. 10, after the Chinese jewelry seller agreed to issue about 3.71 million new H shares at HK$732.49 apiece in a placement.
• Pop Mart shares rise as much as 7.9% after the toymaker’s third quarter sales growth of as much as 250% year-on-year came amid investor worries over the possible fading popularity of its collectible toys.
• Innovent Biologics shares rise as much as 9.9% in Hong Kong after the company said it will receive a $1.2 billion upfront payment, including an equity investment, as part of a strategic collaboration with Takeda Pharmaceutical to develop cancer therapies.
• Meituan shares drop 0.5% as JPMorgan cuts its target price, saying the company may face worst-than-expected pressure in its 3Q and 4Q results due to competition in China’s food delivery market and its expansion overseas.
• Taiheiyo Cement shares gain as much as 6% in early Tokyo trading, the most since April 10, following a report in Nikkei that Palliser Capital has taken a stake of over 3%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, taking gains into a fourth straight day; the index’s thin gains were led by the US currency’s advance versus the pound, which stumbled after data showing steady UK inflation raises speculation of an interest-rate cut in December. A 1% slide in gold prices also supported the greenback, suggesting that investors still see the currency as a viable haven. The pound fell 0.4% against the dollar and is the clear G-10 underperformer.

In rates, treasury yields sliding again, dropping more than 4bps with 10-year around 3.93%, near Tuesday’s low. They trail steep gains for gilts, where 2-year yields fell more than 10bp to 14-month low after UK headline, core and services CPIs fell short of estimates. UK yield curve is notably steeper as market prices in an increased 70% chance Bank of England cuts rates a quarter-point by December. The US session includes 20-year bond reopening: the $13 billion 20-year bond reopening, first coupon auction in more than a week, has WI yield near 4.510%, about 10bp richer than last month’s 20-year sale, which stopped through by 0.2bp 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up about 2%, which along with the 20-year auction creates resistance to lower Treasury yields. Oil is higher on report that US and India are nearing an accord that could lead India to reduce imports of Russian crude. Spot gold is down $50, having recovered from an earlier nosedive toward $4,000/oz. Silver dips 0.7% while Bitcoin is down 2.4%.

The US economic calendar calendar is blank, and Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday. Earnings after the close include Tesla and IBM.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 3.96%
• VIX +0.1 points at 17.96
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1212.96
• euro little changed at $1.1596
• WTI crude +1.7% at $58.19/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The US government shutdown is now the second-longest in history, and with Trump expected to head to Asia later this week, lawmakers and congressional aides see a real possibility of the closure extending into November. BBG
• US companies are beating earnings expectations at the highest rate in over four years, with 85% surpassing profit estimates in the third quarter so far. BBG
• Trump said he won't meet with Democratic leaders unless the government is reopened.
• Trump's administration plans to release over USD 3bln in aid to US farmers previously frozen due to government shutdown: WSJ.
• US has offered energy companies access to nuclear waste that they can convert into fuel for advanced reactors in an attempt to break Russia’s stranglehold over uranium supply chains: FT.
• Bessent is facing mounting pressure to justify Washington’s multibillion dollar rescue of Argentina as a political backlash builds over the administration’s efforts to support Milei. The Treasury secretary has taken the lead in managing Trump’s effort to provide financial support for Milei’s libertarian government, which the US sees as a crucial Latin American ally, through a package of measures designed to prop up its economy and its currency, the peso. FT
• China is demanding some US semiconductor firms submit sensitive information about their sales in the world’s largest chips market as part of its probe of American suppliers. BBG
• As Japan's new premier Sanae Takaichi got to work on Wednesday, her government began finalising a purchase package, including U.S. pickups, soybeans and gas, to present to President Donald Trump in trade and security talks next week, two sources said. RTRS
• Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year's $92 billion to help households tackle inflation, government sources familiar with the plan said on Wednesday. RTRS
• Indonesia unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged at 4.75% (the Street was anticipating a cut to 4.5%). BBG
• India and the United States are nearing a long-stalled trade agreement that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 15% to 16% from 50%, India's Mint reported on Wednesday citing three people aware of the matter. The deal, which hinges on energy and agriculture, may see India gradually scale back its imports of Russian crude oil. RTRS
• The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation in September unexpectedly held at the pace of the previous month, raising the chance that Bank of England policymakers could cut interest rates later this year, despite price rises remaining at a level still well above the central bank’s target. CPI comes in cooler than anticipated at +3.8% Y/Y on the headline (vs. the Street +4%), +3.5% on core (vs. the Street +3.7%), and +4.7% on services (vs. the Street +4.8%). WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump reiterated that the November 1st tariffs on China will be about 155% and that higher tariffs on China won't be sustainable for them, while Trump also said he spoke with India's PM Modi on Tuesday and talked about trade.
• South Korean chief presidential policy aide said South Korea and the US stand apart on a couple of matters in tariff talks.
• South Korea Minister for Trade Yeo expressed concern in a call with China's Li Chenggang regarding Beijing's shipbuilding curbs, while he asked Li to swiftly lift sanctions on South Korea shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean and discussed China’s rare earths export restrictions.
• India and the US are closing in on a long-pending trade deal that could slash current tariffs from Indian exports to between 15-16% from 50%, according to Mint citing three people aware of the matter.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the mixed handover from the US, where participants digested a mixed bag of earnings releases, and precious metals slumped, with a historic drop seen in gold following the recent record-setting rally. ASX 200 retreated with heavy losses in the mining sector after gold prices fell by the most since 2013 and which was its largest one-day dollar value drop on record. Nikkei 225 briefly dipped beneath the 49,000 level with early pressure seen following mixed trade data, although the index gradually pared its early losses as participants also reflected on the new Takaichi-led government, with the PM instructing the cabinet to compile a package of steps to cushion the blow from the rising cost of living. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following a slew of recent trade-related rhetoric, including from US President Trump, who reiterated 155% tariffs on China from November 1st and that he will meet with Chinese President Xi in two weeks, but then also commented that maybe that meeting won't happen.

Top Asian News

• Japanese PM Takaichi is preparing economic stimulus expected to exceed last year's JPY 13.9tln, with the package to be built around three main pillars which are measures to counter inflation, investment in growth industries and national security, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Japanese PM Takaichi is to meet with US President Trump on October 28th and will discuss national defence. It was later reported that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said US President Trump is to visit Japan from October 27th to 29th and is to meet Japan’s Emperor and PM Takaichi during the visit.
• Japanese Minister for Economic Security Kiuchi says it is important that the government and the BoJ continue to cooperate and carry out responsible macroeconomic policies, while he hopes the BoJ will closely coordinate with the government to achieve the 2% inflation target, and stated that the economy needs to be supported until strong real wage growth is achieved.
• Japan's Finance Minister Katayama announces that Prime Minister Takaichi will proceed with fiscal reform both in terms of spending and revenue. Says weak JPY boosts food costs, so there needs to be a quick measurement to cushion impact. "Takaichi Trade" has somewhat calmed down.

European equities (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are mostly lower today, but with outperformance in the FTSE 100 (+0.4%) after the UK's inflation report, which has boosted bets around a cut in December. European sectors hold a negative bias. Energy and Utilities lead the pile, with the former benefiting from strength in oil prices today. To the downside, Consumer Products is pressured by post-earning losses in L'Oreal (-6.2%), Hermes (-4.4%) and Adidas (-2%). Beauty name L'Oreal is pressured after a notable quarterly sales miss, Hermes was more-or-less in-line, yet still disappointed investors after recent resilience; Adidas is seemingly swept away with the sectoral losses, given it reported a beat on its headline metrics, and lifted guidance. US equity futures are modestly incrementally lower today, continuing similar price action seen in the prior session. Key pre-market movers today include; Netflix (-7.1%, Q3 profit miss, hit by a Brazilian tax dispute, but sales were in line), Texas Instruments (-8%, co. issued a soft forecast for the next quarter). Apple (AAPL) is reportedly drastically cutting iPhone Air production orders but boosting other 17 models, via Nikkei citing sources; reflecting lukewarm Air demand ex-China and unexpectedly robust 17 & 17 Pro demand.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves targets tax partnerships in crackdown on UK’s wealthy with Reeves preparing a crackdown on lawyers, accountants, doctors and other professionals who use tax partnerships, according to FT.
• Politico reports that a decision on whether to postpone the French Social Affairs Committee's examination of the Social Security Budget will be taken this morning; in the context of a "rectifying letter" re. pensions likely being adopted on Thursday.
• SNB's Schlegel says inflation is expected to rise slightly in the coming quarters Planned US tariffs on some pharma products could increase downside risk for the economy. Uncertainty in the economy remains high. Will continue to observe the situation and adj. monetary policy where necessary.

FX

• USD is mildly firmer/flat. Nothing really driving things at the moment, but traders are mindful of trade/shutdown developments, and as some begin to position themselves ahead of Friday’s inflation report. For context, some of the recent upside seen in the dollar has been attributed to; a) reversal of debasement trade, b) steep correction in gold, c) easing credit concerns. DXY is currently trading at the upper end of the day’s 98.84-99.05 range
• EUR is essentially flat and trades in an incredibly tight 1.1590-1.1615 range; nonetheless, the bias for today’s price action has been mildly downward. Lacklustre price action, which comes amidst a lack of pertinent newsflow. Some focus on reports that several EU leaders have called for the bloc to review, reduce and restrain legislation to reduce the burden on business, via Reuters.
• JPY is essentially flat/mildly lower vs USD, and currently trades in a 151.48-151.95 range, just shy of the 152.00 mark. On trade, Reuters reported that PM Takaichi is to tell US President Trump that the country will buy US soybeans, pickups and LNG, though may not commit to a new defence spending target. As a reminder, the POTUS will visit Japan from October 27-29. On economic policy, Takaichi is reportedly readying an economic stimulus which is set to top JPY 13.9tln; Reuters suggested measures are to counter inflation, investment in growth industries and national security. Elsewhere, Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama echoed her PM’s recent remarks, pushing back on the government’s involvement with the BoJ. Katayama said it is up to BoJ on specifics on monetary policy but should work together to have effective economic policies.
• GBP is the clear underperformer vs USD today, following the region’s soft inflation report. In detail, headline Y/Y was unchanged from the prior at 3.8% (exp. 4%), with the Services components also softer-than-expected. In an immediate reaction, GBP/USD fell from 1.3384 to 1.3343, before extending to a trough of 1.3314 where the pair currently resides. Further levels to the downside include the low from October 15th and then last week's worst at 1.3248. Following the release, market pricing has shifted dovishly, with markets now assigning a 74% chance of a cut by year-end vs 44% pre-release; the first full 25bps cut is priced in by Feb 2026.
• Antipodeans are the marginal G10 performers today, benefiting from a recent bounce back in metals prices as spot gold and base metals clamber off from the hefty pressure seen in the prior session.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0954 vs exp. 7.1225 (Prev. 7.0930)

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat. In a very thin 113-21 to 113-25 band. Focus thus far has been on the mixed trade rhetoric out of the US yesterday with Trump previewing his potential meeting with China’s Xi saying he expects the negotiation to be good. However, he then added that maybe the meeting will not occur. Otherwise, the US docket is limited owing to the shutdown and Fed blackout; note, Barr is scheduled. On the shutdown, Trump overnight poured some cold water on the situation by saying he won’t be meeting with Dem. leaders until the gov’t reopens.
• Bunds are contained, but has experienced a slightly choppy morning. Picked up to a 130.38 peak with gains of c. 15 ticks on the discussed UK inflation report before paring and falling back to a 130.16 low, with downside of around five ticks at most. Ahead, ECB’s de Guindos and Lagarde due, though recent comments from officials have not changed the narrative into the end-October meeting. A weak German auction (b/c 1.2x) sparked some very marginal pressure in Bunds.
• OATs trade broadly in-line with EGB peers in a 123.19 to 123.44 band while the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread remains steady around the 80bps mark. For OATs, Amova’s Williams spoke to Bloomberg and outlined that they added to their overweight position on French debt in September, and believes OATs are still at attractive levels despite recent sovereign downgrades. On the spread, he believes a move above 100bps would cause the ECB to step in.
• Gilts are the clear outperformer today following the region's inflation report. CPI for September remained at 3.8% Y/Y, cooler than the market and BoE forecast of 4.0%; pertinently, September represented the peak in the BoE’s inflation forecast horizon. Accompanying measures were also cooler-than-expected and while there were some slightly more mixed internals behind the headline figure and somewhat unusual moves in some subset components, the overall narrative is clearly a dovish one vs. consensus. As such, Gilts gapped higher by 54 ticks to 93.45 and then extended further to a 93.78 peak, notching a contract high. Action that pushed the UK 2yr yield down to 3.77% and below the 3.80% mark that desks have been attentive to recently, the 10yr also moderated to 4.4%, convincingly taking out 4.45%.
• Germany sells EUR 2.284bln vs exp. EUR 3.0bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.2x (prev. 1.5x), average yield 2.33% (prev. 2.52%), retention 23.87% (prev. 23.88%)

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks extended on Tuesday’s high during the APAC session as Mint citing sources reported that a US-India trade deal is near, that could see India cut Russian oil imports for a lower export tariff to 15-16% from 50%. WTI and Brent peaked at USD 58.50/bbl and USD 62.62/bbl respectively following the trade news but are currently trading slightly off best levels at USD 58.20/bbl and USD 62.30/bbl.
• Spot XAU began the European morning firmer, bouncing back from Tuesday’s 5% selloff, which was its biggest selloff since November 2020. Although, XAU was then pressured once again to currently trade around USD 4,065/oz - trough for today's session was made overnight at USD 4,005.98/oz.
• Base metals have rebounded from Tuesday’s selloff following a trade deal near its completion between India and the US. 3M LME Copper dipped to a low of USD 10.54k/t before reversing a trending back through Tuesday’s range and is currently trading near session highs at USD 10.66k/t.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -3.0mln (exp. +1.2mln), Distillate -1.0mln (exp. -1.9mln), Gasoline -0.2mln (exp. -0.8mln).
• Russian overnight attack on Ukraine's Poltava region damaged oil and gas industry facilities.

Geopolitics

• Russia obtained security guarantees from Ukraine to restore power to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, according to RIA.
• US President Trump said he has not made a determination yet regarding a meeting with Russian President Putin and doesn't want to have a wasted meeting, while he still sees a chance for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
• Russia's Special Economic Envoy said 'preparations continue' for a Trump-Putin meeting.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov says preparations for a Russia-US summit is ongoing and there has been no agreement on a Lavrov-Rubio meeting; sees no major obstacles for a Trump-Putin meeting via RIA.
• Russia's Kremlin says their position is well known with nothing else to add in regard to reports of a non-paper passed to USA on Ukraine. Preparation is necessary for Putin-Trump summit.
• Ukraine's President Zelensky calls US President Trumps' idea a good compromise in regards to the concept of stopping at the current lines.
• North Korea fired a missile, which the South Korean military said was a ballistic missile, while Japanese PM Takaichi later confirmed there was no damage to Japan's exclusive economic zone and waters from the North Korean missile.
• US is reportedly trying to drive a wedge between Argentina and China with the Trump administration pushing officials in Argentina to limit China’s influence over the distressed South American nation, according to WSJ.
• China's Defence Ministry said it is strongly dissatisfied with Australia's statement about military aircraft around the Paracel Islands, while it added that organised troops are to resolutely block and drive away Australian military aircraft that 'invaded' China's airspace.
• "Israel's Channel 12: The security establishment warns that accelerating the implementation of the Trump plan may harm Israel's security interests", via Sky News Arabia

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Oct 17 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.3%, prior -1.8%
• Fed’s External Communications Blackout (October 18 - October 30)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Most markets put in another steady performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.003%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.21%) closing just below their record highs from a couple of weeks ago, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-1.7bps) hit a one-year low of 3.96%. Several factors contributed, including some positive noises on the trade outlook, alongside decent earnings releases. But even as bonds and equities were mostly rallying, it was a completely different story for commodities, with several posting very sharp falls. Indeed, gold prices (-5.30%) posted their biggest decline since August 2020, whilst silver (-7.12%) saw its biggest decline since the Liberation Day market turmoil in April.

That sudden selloff for precious metals really captured the market headlines, but to be honest there wasn’t a single catalyst that sparked the declines, and the big multi-year moves weren’t happening in other asset classes or commodities either. Moreover, the slump happened despite a decline in nominal and real bond yields, which usually help to support gold prices given it’s relatively more attractive to hold a zero-interest asset like gold when bonds aren’t yielding as much. So in many respects, it looked like a classic pullback after a relentless bull run over recent weeks, and it's worth noting that the rolling two-month gain of more than +30% on Monday was already the strongest since the GFC. Indeed, last month saw real-terms gold prices move above their inflation-adjusted peak in January 1980, so it had never been more expensive. And even with yesterday’s moves, its gains of +57% since the start of the year would still make it the strongest annual performance since 1979, back when gold prices more than doubled after that year’s oil shock triggered a huge wave of inflation.

Whilst gold saw the biggest headline moves, there was plenty going on for US Treasuries, with a decent rally that pushed longer-dated yields to their lowest in some time. That was partly driven by a weak survey print from the Philadelphia Fed, as their non-manufacturing activity index came in at -22.2 in October, which is its lowest level in 4 months. To be fair, that isn’t a release that normally gets too much attention, but given the government shutdown, investors are more focused on the data that’s still coming out. So the print added to speculation that the Fed would cut rates rapidly in the months ahead if the economy weakened, particularly given the ongoing government shutdown. And in turn, 10yr Treasury yields (-1.7bps) closed at 3.96%, which is their lowest level since October 2024, whilst the 30yr Treasury yield (-2.6bps) fell to 4.54%, its lowest level since the Liberation Day turmoil in April.

Sentiment got a bit of a boost yesterday from various trade headlines, which added to investor optimism that a tariff escalation would be avoided. For instance, Trump said at the White House that he would see President Xi in South Korea, and that “I expect to be able to make a good deal with him”. However, Trump also floated that the meeting might not happen, saying “Maybe it won’t happen. Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say, I don’t want to meet”, so that briefly pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory again. And separately, Canadian PM Mark Carney said that they were in “intensive negotiations” with the US, and it was “possible” that a trade deal could be reached ahead of the APEC summit in South Korea next week.  

The S&P 500 had traded slightly in the green for most of the day, before closing virtually unchanged (+0.003%), leaving the index just over a quarter of a percent from its record high two weeks ago. The equity moves were pretty mixed, with nearly 60% of the S&P 500 higher on the day, but the NASDAQ (-0.16%), Mag-7 (-0.31%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.49%) all fell back as value stocks outperformed. Bank stocks were among the underperformers, with the KBW Bank index (-0.37%) losing ground after rebounding the previous two sessions. And after the close, we heard from Western Alliance Bancorp, who saw a -10.81% fall in their share price last Thursday as the concerns around regional banks and private credit gathered pace. The banking group delivered an earnings and revenue beat even as it raised credit loss provisions to $80m (vs. $42.4m est.), and its share price was up +2.85% in after-hours trading. So that offered reassurance to markets after last week’s jitters, particularly after the smooth reaction to Zions Bancorp’s earnings the previous day, and S&P 500 futures are up +0.16% this morning.

In the meantime, the US government shutdown is entering day 22, which now makes this the second-longest shutdown, behind the 2018-19 shutdown that lasted for 35 days. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune said yesterday that Republican lawmakers were “hopeful that this will be the week we break out of this”, but there’s still no obvious sign of a compromise emerging between Republicans and Democrats. Indeed, the Polymarket odds for the end of the shutdown have continued to drift into the distance, with the chances of the shutdown lasting beyond November 16 up from 29% this time yesterday to 40% now. So that’s still impacting the usual flow of data, although we will get a delayed CPI report for September this Friday.

Over in Europe, markets put in a strong performance, and France’s CAC 40 (+0.64%) finally exceeded its record high from May 2024. That came alongside fairly broad-based gains, and the STOXX 600 (+0.21%) closed less than -0.1% beneath its own record high. Likewise, sovereign bonds rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.5bps), OATs (-2.0bps) and BTPs (-2.2bps) all moving lower. And for 10yr bunds, that took them down to 2.55%, their lowest level since June.

One exception to the global pattern of lower yields was in Canada, after their latest inflation report surprised on the upside. It showed headline CPI rising to +2.4% in September (vs +2.2% expected), whilst both the trim core and the median core measures tracked by the Bank of Canada also moved higher. So that led investors to dial back the likelihood of a rate cut next week, with markets pricing in a 73% chance by the close, down from 77% the previous day. And in turn, Canada’s 10yr government bond yield moved up +2.4bps to 3.08%, making it the only G7 country where yields moved higher yesterday.

Elsewhere, Brent crude oil prices (+0.51%) rebounded from their 5-month low on Monday to $61.32/bbl, on news that the US administration would begin refilling its Strategic Oil Reserve, starting with 1 million barrels. The oil move was also supported by more negative noise between the US and Russia, with Bloomberg reporting that the White House has no immediate plans for a Trump-Putin meeting given differences between the sides on potential ceasefire terms in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump himself said he did not want to have “a wasted meeting” with Putin.

Over in Japan, Sanae Takaichi became the new PM yesterday after winning a parliamentary vote. On monetary policy, she said that “I believe the BOJ should retain discretion over the tools of monetary policy”, and that she didn’t see a need to review the 2013 accord between the BOJ and the government. Against that backdrop, the yen weakened by -0.78% against the US Dollar yesterday, making it the weakest-performing G10 currency, although it’s stabilised again this morning. The Nikkei is also up +0.13% currently, leaving the index on track for another record high. And elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.77%) is also at a record high, although Chinese equities are struggling this morning, with the CSI 300 (-0.70%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.44%) both losing ground.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI print for September, whilst central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and Vice President de Guindos. Otherwise, earnings releases include Tesla and IBM.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 08:34

India-US Trade Deal "Likely Soon," Could Be Announced At ASEAN Summit: Mint

The U.S. and India are close to a possible trade deal that would reduce tariffs on Indian exports to about 15% to 16% from the current 50%, according to the Mint. In return, India may reduce imports of Russian oil and open its market to non-genetically modified American corn and soymeal products. The bilateral trade agreement could be announced when President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia between Oct. 26 and 28.

The Indian financial daily newspaper cited three unidentified people who were familiar with the deal. Here's what they said:

India and the U.S. are closing in on a long-pending trade deal that could slash the current tariffs for Indian exports to 15–16% from a punishing 50%, according to three people aware of the matter.

With energy and agriculture emerging as key cards at the negotiating table, India may agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil, the people cited above said on condition of anonymity. The purchases had prompted a punitive levy of 25% on Indian exports, which is over and above the 25% reciprocal tariffs announced in April.

India may also allow more non-genetically modified (GM) American corn and soymeal into its markets. Further, it is pushing for a mechanism to revisit tariffs and market access over time in the agreement.

Mint said the bilateral trade agreement may be announced when Modi and Trump meet at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia.

Late Tuesday, Modi wrote on X:

Thank you, President Trump, for your phone call and warm Diwali greetings. On this festival of lights, may our two great democracies continue to illuminate the world with hope and stand united against terrorism in all its forms.

Thank you, President Trump, for your phone call and warm Diwali greetings. On this festival of lights, may our two great democracies continue to illuminate the world with hope and stand united against terrorism in all its forms.@realDonaldTrump @POTUS

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) October 22, 2025

Russian crude remains a major flashpoint. India is the world's second-largest buyer of Russian oil after China, importing around 1.6 million barrels per day, up sharply from 50,000 bpd in 2020. Trump previously hiked tariffs by 25% as a penalty for India's continued purchases.

Earlier this year, the U.S. and India agreed to target $500 billion in trade by 2030, but those talks broke down after U.S. trade officials demanded greater access to India's agricultural and dairy sectors. According to Mint sources, the new deal stated that "broad contours of the agreement are in place, but sensitive areas such as agriculture and energy need political clearance before the deal can be announced."

What may overshadow any trade deal between the U.S. and India is what Trump described on Tuesday about a potential "fantastic" trade deal with China.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 08:25

Oxford Union President-Elect Who Celebrated Charlie Kirk Shooting Ousted

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The president-elect of the Oxford Union has been voted out of the role following comments he made celebrating the assassination of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk.

The Oxford union library, Oxford, UK, on June 2, 2021. IR Stone, Shutterstock

In a leaked message in a WhatsApp chat, 20-year-old George Abaraonye wrote, “Charlie Kirk got shot, let’s (expletive) go,” while a story he shared on his Instagram account read, “Charlie Kirk got shot loool.”

Members of the influential student union voted in person on Saturday in a motion of no confidence in the incoming president, who will not be allowed to take up the highly prestigious position.

The Oxford Union posted on X on Tuesday morning, “The Motion of No Confidence against Mr. Abaraonye has met the required two-thirds threshold and has therefore passed.”

A total of 1,228 members voted for the motion, while 501 members voted against it. The union shared a letter stating that in accordance with its rules, Abaraonye is now “deemed to have resigned.”

Racism Claim Following Criticism

In May, Abaraonye participated in an Oxford Union debate with Kirk, who founded conservative youth organization Turning Point USA. Kirk thanked the student after the exchange, which touched on a range of subjects from “toxic masculinity” to the causes of suicide among men.

Kirk was shot and killed at a Utah Valley University event four months later, on Sept. 10, with authorities calling it a political assassination. A 22-year-old man, Tyler Robinson, is charged with his murder.

Abaraonye, who was elected president of the union in June, claimed he was a victim of harassment, racism, and the “far right” after he received widespread criticism for his comments following Kirk’s death.

On an Oct. 14 episode of the podcast “What’s Left,” Abaraonye said his statements and actions had been misrepresented in the media, but acknowledged the Instagram post and group chat comment were genuine.

The student said he had “reacted instantly” when he sent the messages and claimed not to have seen the widely circulated footage of the shooting at the time. He said that while he apologized for the offence caused, he had made the comments because of the “political climate,” which he said was stoked by Kirk. 

The third-year student deleted the WhatsApp message after learning of Kirk’s death, and admitted he “acted poorly” in sending it.

Supporters of Charlie Kirk rally outside the School District Welcome Center as a school board meeting takes place in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Oct. 15, 2025. Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images ‘Last Bastion of Free Speech’

Following the president-elect’s comments, a number of wealthy donors indicated they would withdraw their support of Oxford Union, which describes itself as “the last bastion of free speech,” while some invited speakers said they would decline to debate there.

Venture capitalist Josh Wolfe publicly withdrew from an expected speaking engagement at the union, citing Abaraonye’s comments. Others have withdrawn or declined to participate in events there on similar grounds.

An open letter from former presidents and other leaders of the Oxford Union urged Abaraonye to resign.

“We do not question your right to speak your mind about Charlie Kirk’s murder,” the letter said. “However, your public reaction to a fatal shooting displayed a callousness inconsistent with the Union President’s duty to safeguard free and open debate, rendering it untenable for you to accede to the Office of President.”

The letter also questioned Abaraonye’s unwillingness to offer “an explicit and unqualified apology for your celebration of Mr. Kirk’s murder.”

In an Instagram post that is no longer public, Abaraonye said he had submitted a motion of confidence in himself in an attempt to reclaim “true accountability and (reaffirm) that the Oxford Union must remain a place where students can make mistakes, apologize sincerely, and learn from them.”

The voting process was marred by accusations of intimidation against the returning officer, who Oxford Union said in a statement was subjected to “obstruction, intimidation, and unwarranted hostility by a number of representatives.”

The Radcliffe Camera (L) and All Souls College, Oxford University. Shutterstock Prestigious Position

The position of president of the Oxford Union—with Oxford University being an ancient seat of learning that dates back to the 11th century—is highly coveted. The privately funded union is independent of Oxford University’s student union, but in practice, almost all of its members are drawn from the student body and alumni. 

The Oxford Union was founded in 1823, and holding a prominent role within it can be a ticket into positions of power and influence in the UK and around the world.

The Oxford Union has counted among its officers numerous future leaders, including British Conservative Prime Ministers Edward Heath, Harold Macmillan, and Boris Johnson, and former UK Labour Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair.

Its celebrated debating society has hosted countless famous speakers over the years, including Queen Elizabeth II, U.S. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, and Nobel prize winners and scientists such as Albert Einstein.

Abaraonye posted a statement on his Instagram account on Tuesday to deny that he or his supporters had engaged in any intimidatory tactics and said that the poll was “compromised.”

The statement added, “George Abaraonye is and remains the President-Elect per the Oxford Union rules.”

Oxford University’s student newspaper, Cherwell, said it “understands” that Abaraonve has submitted a complaint about the outcome of the ballot.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 07:20

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 17, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 81 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“The lowest mortgage rates in a month spurred an increase in refinance activity, including another pickup in ARM applications. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.37 percent and all other loan types also decreased,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The refinance index increased 4 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional refinances and a 12 percent increase in FHA refinance applications, as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly mortgage payment. VA refinances bucked the trend and were down 12 percent.”

Added Kan, “ARM applications increased 16 percent over the week, which pushed the ARM share to 11 percent, with the ARM rate more than 80 basis points lower than the 30-year fixed rate. Purchase applications were down over the week but remained 20 percent higher than a year ago.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.37 percent from 6.42 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

The Bering Strait Tunnel Will Likely Remain A Pipe Dream

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Russia might still fund some less ambitious infrastructure projects in its Far East-Arctic region to keep the economy hot after the war ends, help veterans find work, and encourage settlement there...

Trump reacted positively to the proposal by Kirill Dmitriev, chief of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and envoy in ongoing negotiations with the US, to build a tunnel beneath the Bering Strait. The idea isn’t new but has recently been revived as a means of physically embodying the New Détente that their leaders aim to achieve if they’re first able to end the Ukrainian Conflict. Given its $8-65 billion cost as estimated by Dmitriev himself, however, this megaproject would have to be profitable if it’s to be built.

Therein lies the problem since Russian-US trade has always been low even before the unprecedented sanctions that were imposed after the start of the special operation. Energy and raw materials comprise the vast majority of Russian exports, but the US doesn’t need them since it already has enough of pretty much everything apart from rare earth minerals. About that, while Russia has some untapped rare earth deposits, their yields could easily be exported to the US by sea in the event of a New Détente.

Two Russian experts recently interviewed by publicly financed TASS are of a similar opinion.

According to Dmitry Zavyalov, head of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Logistics and dean of the Higher School of Economics faculty at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, China might be interested in this megaproject, but “the scale of the costs, their distribution among the project participants, and geopolitical risks reduce the potential benefits.”

Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the Presidential Academy’s International Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research, pointed out that “Alaska is cut off from the main US rail network, while Chukotka is thousands of kilometers of permafrost and mountains from the nearest Russian rails. Any ‘saving’ of a couple of days’ travel compared to the sea instantly vanishes against the monstrous costs of building thousands of kilometers of new tracks, bridges, and tunnels in the harshest climates on the planet.”

Nevertheless, the aforesaid infrastructure projects might also be what Dmitriev has in mind, perhaps envisaged as a Russian version of FDR’s “New Deal” for keeping the economy hot and helping veterans find work once the war ends.

Putin recently approved high-speed rail projects for connecting Moscow with major cities in European Russia, which could be employed to this end, but the tunnel proposal would help develop and settle the Far East-Arctic region per the vision that he shared in September.

Putin also proposed building a new veteran-led Russian elite last year, and some of its most aspirational members could cut their political teeth by working on these projects and then running in regional elections, after which they might rise to national renown. Among the comparatively less aspirational majority, they might be content to live out their lives in the rural Far East-Arctic region after working on projects there, especially if they were traumatized by the war and struggle to reintegrate into society.

With this insight in mind, the Bering Strait tunnel idea that Dmitriev just revived would actually be quite beneficial to Russia, but not for the reasons that many might have assumed. Even so, the total costs of this megaproject and all the associated infrastructure that would have to be built in the Far East-Arctic region would be enormous and arguably beyond the national budget’s means to fund in full, and foreign investors might not consider any of this to be profitable. The tunnel might thus remain a pipe dream.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 06:30

These Are The US Cities Where Young Americans Can Still Afford A Home

Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao ranks the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas by the share of adults under 30 who have a mortgage, painting a clear picture of where today’s twentysomethings can realistically afford a home.

Data for this visualization comes from LendingTree. They analyzed 32,000 anonymized fourth-quarter 2024 credit reports of adults under 30 in the 50 largest U.S. metros to create this ranking. Please see their methodology section for more details.

The American Dream is Still Within Reach In These Cities

At 9.4%, Nashville claims the highest share of under-30 mortgage holders in the country.

Rank City State Share of Americans Under 30 With Mortgages 1 Nashville Tennessee 9.4% 2 Indianapolis Indiana 8.4% 3 Pittsburgh Pennsylvania 7.0% 4 Cincinnati Ohio 6.5% 5 Louisville Kentucky 5.8% 6 Oklahoma City Oklahoma 5.7% 7 San Antonio Texas 5.3% 8 Hartford Connecticut 5.0% 9 Virginia Beach Virginia 4.9% 10 Buffalo New York 4.7% 10 Salt Lake City Utah 4.7% 12 Raleigh North Carolina 4.6% 13 Detroit Michigan 4.5% 14 Minneapolis Minnesota 4.3% 14 Phoenix Arizona 4.3% 14 Providence Rhode Island 4.3% 17 Birmingham Alabama 4.1% 18 Memphis Tennessee 4.0% 19 Denver Colorado 3.7% 19 Las Vegas Nevada 3.7% 21 New Orleans Louisiana 3.5% 21 Riverside California 3.5% 23 Houston Texas 3.4% 24 Cleveland Ohio 3.3% 25 Baltimore Maryland 3.2% 25 Dallas Texas 3.2% 25 Tampa Florida 3.2% 28 Charlotte North Carolina 3.1% 28 Chicago Illinois 3.1% 28 Philadelphia Pennsylvania 3.1% 31 Miami Florida 3.0% 31 St. Louis Missouri 3.0% 33 Kansas City Missouri 2.9% 34 Austin Texas 2.8% 34 Columbus Ohio 2.8% 36 Orlando Florida 2.6% 36 Seattle Washington 2.6% 38 Jacksonville Florida 2.5% 38 Milwaukee Wisconsin 2.5% 40 Washington, D.C. District of Columbia 2.4% 41 Atlanta Georgia 2.3% 42 Portland Oregon 2.2% 43 Richmond Virginia 2.1% 44 San Francisco California 2.0% 45 San Diego California 1.7% 46 Sacramento California 1.6% 47 Boston Massachusetts 1.4% 48 Los Angeles California 1.3% 49 New York New York 1.2% 50 San Jose California 0.8%

The Music City’s housing-price growth has slowed from its pandemic peak, and a steady influx of jobs in healthcare, tech, and entertainment is giving young workers both stable incomes and loan approval power.

Indianapolis (8.4%) and Pittsburgh (7.0%) follow, proof that mid-sized metros with diversified economies and moderate price tags remain happy hunting grounds for first-time buyers.

These leaders share several traits: median home prices well below the national average, shorter commute times that widen the geographic radius of affordable neighborhoods, and state-level programs that reduce down-payment hurdles.

ℹ️ Related: Here’s the latest median home prices by state.

Midwest Cities and South Dominate Home Affordability

Beyond the top three, the next dozen cities are heavily concentrated in the Midwest and South.

Cincinnati, Louisville, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio all break the 5% threshold.

Lower land costs and more flexible zoning keep construction pipelines open, while relatively low student-debt balances reduce the debt-to-income ratios that lenders scrutinize.

ℹ️ Related: See how Ohio, Kentucky, Texas, and Oklahoma perform on average student debt by state.

Even mid-tier Rust Belt metros such as Detroit (4.5%) and Minneapolis (4.3%) do better than larger coastal cities.

Their affordable starter-home inventories help offset slower wage growth. This illustrates that absolute price matters more than headline salary figures when it comes to qualifying for a mortgage before age 30.

Coastal State Economies Are Punishing for Home Ownership

At the other end of the spectrum stand San Jose (0.8%), New York City (1.2%), and Los Angeles (1.3%).

Sky-high property values inflate required down payments to six figures, while stricter land-use rules limit new supply and keep entry-level stock scarce.

Even Boston (1.4%) and Seattle (2.6%), cities with strong job markets, show that surging demand can overwhelm wage gains. This can and push homeownership beyond the reach of many young professionals.

ℹ️ Related: The median age of first-time home buyers in the U.S. is now 38, the oldest ever recorded.

For a broarder perspective, check out: Where Homes are Affordable in North America Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 05:45

How The Louvre 'Heist Of The Century' Unfolded

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The audacious theft of priceless jewels from the Louvre in Paris on Oct. 19 was called “the heist of the century” by several local newspapers, and commentators quickly drew parallels to similar headline-grabbing crimes over the years.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Google Earth

Questions about security arrangements at the world’s most visited museum, which attracts close to 9 million visitors per year, have been raised in the aftermath of the broad-daylight theft, along with speculation about who could be behind the crime.

As special investigators scramble to catch those involved, here’s what to know about how the heist was pulled off in mere minutes, what was stolen—and why experts fear the jewels may never be recovered.

How It Happened

Thieves wearing balaclavas broke into an upstairs gallery on the morning of Oct. 19 using a truck-mounted basket lift known as a “cherry picker” to smash an upstairs window before looting precious objects from an area that houses the French crown jewels.

The robbers struck at 9.30 a.m. local time, just half an hour after the museum opened its doors to the public, Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau told French TV.

They pulled up on a road along the Seine River and climbed an extendable ladder on the cherry picker to break into a window of the Galerie d'Apollon building. Although the thieves didn’t carry conventional weapons, they threatened the museum’s guards with the angle grinders they used to slice through the museum’s window, according to Beccuau.

Le Monde and other French media outlets reported that there were four thieves, two of whom wore reflective yellow vests intended to make them look like construction workers. Two rode in the truck, while two were on scooters.

The gang tried unsuccessfully to set fire to the crane as they fled the scene of the crime on motorbikes.

The museum was evacuated as the alarm sounded following the smash and grab, remaining closed through Oct. 20.

French police officers stand next to an extendable ladder used by the thieves to enter the Louvre museum in Paris on Oct. 19, 2025. Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images What Was Stolen?

While nine objects were targeted, eight were successfully stolen. The thieves dropped the ninth, the crown of Napoleon III’s wife, Empress Eugénie, during their escape, the prosecutor said. The piece is adorned with 1,354 diamonds and 56 emeralds, according to the museum’s website.

Drouot auction house President Alexandre Giquello told Reuters that the auction house would value the crown at “several tens of millions of euros,” noting that in his opinion, it was “not the most important item” in the targeted haul.

The Culture Ministry said the eight stolen items include:

• A tiara from a sapphire jewelry set belonging to Queen Marie‑Amélie and Queen Hortense
• A necklace from the same sapphire set
• A single earring (one half of a pair) from that sapphire set
• An emerald necklace from the jewelry set of Empress Marie‑Louise (Napoleon I’s second wife)
• A pair of emerald earrings from the Marie-Louise set
• A brooch known as the “reliquary brooch”
• A tiara belonging to Empress Eugénie (wife of Napoleon III)
• A large bodice-knot brooch (corsage bow brooch) belonging to Empress Eugénie

Mystery surrounds why the thieves did not also steal the Regent diamond, which is housed in the Galerie d'Apollon and has an estimated value of more than $60 million, according to Sotheby’s.

(Clockwise From Top L) A tiara, a necklace, and a single earring from the sapphire jewelery set of Queen Marie‑Amélie and Queen Hortense. An emerald necklace and a pair of emerald earrings from the jewelry set of Empress Marie‑Louise. A brooch known as the “reliquary brooch.” A large bodice-knot brooch of Empress Eugénie. A tiara of Empress Eugénie. The crown of Napoleon III’s wife, Empress Eugenie. Stéphane Maréchalle/Musée du Louvre Who Could Be Behind It?

Beccuau said in the immediate aftermath of the crime that nothing was being ruled out and that all lines of inquiry were open—although foreign interference was not among investigators’ main hypotheses.

She said it was likely that the robbery was either commissioned by a collector—in which case there was a chance of recovering the pieces in a good state—or carried out by thieves interested only in the monetary value of the jewels and precious metals.

“We’re looking at the hypothesis of organized crime,” the prosecutor said, noting that the culprits could be thieves working on spec for a buyer or seeking jewels that could be used to launder criminal proceeds.

“Nowadays, anything can be linked to drug trafficking, given the significant sums of money obtained from [this crime].”

The probe is being led by a specialized police unit with a high success rate in solving high-profile robberies, according to French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez.

A French forensics officer examines the broken window on the balcony of the crime scene at the Louvre in Paris on Oct. 19, 2025. Kiran Ridley/Getty Images Why Wasn’t Security Tighter?

The heist has reignited a debate around funding for museums, which are far less secure than banks, despite being increasingly targeted by thieves.

Earlier this year, officials at the Louvre urgently requested funding from the French government to restore and renovate the museum’s aging exhibition halls and better protect its countless works of art.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on X that a new government plan for the Louvre announced in January “provides for strengthened security.” Despite the French president’s promise of a 700 million euro refurbishment, museum staff went on strike in June over what they said was dangerous overcrowding.

Culture Minister Rachida Dati said on a visit on Oct. 20 to the scene of the crime that the issue of museum security is not new.

“For 40 years, there was little focus on securing these major museums, and two years ago, the president of the Louvre requested a security audit from the police prefect. Why? Because museums must adapt to new forms of crime,” she said. “Today, it’s organized crime—professionals.”

People visit the Galerie d'Apollon at the Louvre in Paris on Oct. 14, 2020. The famous Parisian museum has been targeted by thieves many times in history. Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said the crime cast France in a “deplorable” light. Opposition politicians criticized the government for what they branded a national humiliation at a time when the country is already deep in political crisis.

Christopher Marinello, founder of Art Recovery International, an organization that specializes in recovering stolen art, said, “The Louvre is one of the most well funded museums in the world. And if they’re going to be hit, every museum is vulnerable.”

France will review the protection of cultural sites across the country and beef up security if needed, officials said on Oct. 20.

Does the Theft Surpass Previous Heists?

This is far from the first theft from the famous Parisian museum, which has been targeted many times, with some of those headline-hitting heists being made into films.

In one of the most famous and daring art thefts in history, the Mona Lisa was stolen from the museum in a 1911 theft carried out by a former employee who had knowledge of the layout and security of the building.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 05:00

Simple Hair-Test Identifies Children At Highest Risk For Depression And Anxiety

Measuring stress levels through hair samples could provide important clues about mental health risks in children living with chronic physical illnesses, research suggests.

Anusorn Nakdee/Shutterstock

“Hair cortisol offers a non-invasive, easy-to-collect biomarker that could one day be used to screen children and track whether treatments or support programs are helping to reduce stress,” study co-author Mark Ferro, a professor in the University of Waterloo’s School of Public Health Sciences, said in a press statement.

An estimated 40 percent of children in Canada live with chronic physical illnesses (CPI)—a number that has been increasing over the past decades.

As George Citroner details below for The Epoch Times, those with higher cortisol levels are more likely to develop mental health problems at rates ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent, significantly higher than the prevalence in healthy children, researchers noted.

These conditions can lead to lower quality of life, suicidal thoughts, and greater use of health care services.

Chronic Illness Linked to Mental Health Difficulties

Published this year in Stress and Health, the study tracked 244 Canadian children with chronic physical illnesses over four years. Researchers used hair cortisol, a biological marker that reflects stress over time, to measure stress levels.

The results showed that more than two-thirds of the children had consistently high cortisol levels.

When comparing these stress patterns to reports of emotional and behavioral difficulties, scientists saw that children whose cortisol levels declined showed fewer symptoms of anxiety, depression, and behavior problems than those whose levels remained high.

Why Hair Testing Matters

Unlike current screening methods that rely on behavioral assessments after problems emerge, hair cortisol testing could identify at-risk children years earlier. The hormone cortisol accumulates in hair over months, providing a long-term picture of stress levels that blood or saliva tests cannot capture.

According to researchers, this discovery could help guide prevention and treatment strategies to better support children’s well-being.

“Our findings suggest that chronically high stress, measured through hair samples, could help identify children with CPI at the highest risk for developing mental health problems. This opens the door to earlier and more targeted support,” lead study author Emma Littler, a University of Waterloo doctoral candidate in public health sciences, said in the press statement.

As hair develops, cortisol from the bloodstream and from secretions of sweat and sebaceous glands becomes embedded within the hair shaft.

Human scalp hair typically grows at a fairly consistent rate of about 1 centimeter per month, which allows a 1 centimeter segment of hair to serve as a reliable indicator of the average stress level during that month.

To create a historical record of cortisol exposure, hair is often sectioned into segments; for instance, a 3-centimeter sample can be divided into three 1-centimeter segments, each representing a separate month. In laboratory analysis, the hair sample undergoes washing to eliminate external contaminants, followed by pulverization and incubation in a solvent such as methanol to extract the cortisol.

The extracted hormone is then measured using highly sensitive techniques such as enzyme-linked immunoassay or liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. The resulting measurement is expressed as the amount of cortisol per milligram of hair, typically in picograms per milligram.

Dr. Molly McVoy, an associate professor of psychiatry at Case Western Reserve University’s School of Medicine, who was not involved in the study, noted that anxiety and mood disorders such as depression are most commonly associated with chronic medical conditions. She pointed out that in these conditions, changes in cortisol are signs that a child is more at risk for an anxiety or mood disorder.

Warning Signs Parents Should Watch For

McVoy listed specific signs or symptoms parents should watch for in children that might indicate they’re experiencing high stress or they have mental health concerns.

“I recommend parents think about what their [kids are] supposed to [be] doing at that age,” she added. “Are they able to do it? If not, we wonder what’s getting in the way.”

For example, school-aged children who struggle to learn, make friends, or enjoy those activities—and teenagers who are not engaged with peers—may be showing warning signs of stress or mental health concerns, McVoy said.

Other warning signs include disrupted sleep patterns in children without access to devices that could keep them awake, and the inability to engage in age-appropriate activities.

How to Reduce Stress in Children

McVoy emphasized that children with chronic diseases need their lives kept as “typical” as possible, while acknowledging their different needs.

Do:

• Help them attend school regularly when possible

• Encourage participation in sports and activities they can manage

• Facilitate time with friends

• Maintain healthy sleep and physical activity routines

Don’t:

• Remove all expectations you would have for healthy children

• “Overcompensate” by making life too easy

• Treat them so differently that they feel socially separated from their peers

Parents often overcompensate in how they treat their chronically ill children, by removing all expectations they would have for a healthy child, McVoy said. However, this can make kids feel more stressed and increase feelings of social separation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 04:15

"If You Don't Like It, Catch A Flight Home"; Chega Leader Tells Muslims As Portugal Moves To Ban The Burqa

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Portugal’s parliament has approved a proposal to ban the wearing of burqas and niqabs in public spaces, with right-wing party Chega leading the initiative and its leader, André Ventura, telling those who disagree to “catch a flight back” to their countries of origin.

The bill, supported by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Iniciativa Liberal, and CDS, passed its first reading on Thursday despite opposition from the Socialist Party (PS), Livre, the Communist Party (PCP), and the Left Bloc.

It will now be examined by the parliamentary committee on Constitutional Affairs, Rights, Freedoms and Guarantees, and must receive presidential sign-off before becoming law.

The proposal states that “the use of clothing designed to conceal or obstruct the display of the face in public spaces” will be prohibited, with exceptions for health reasons, places of worship, and diplomatic or consular facilities.

Penalties for violating the ban would range from €200 to €4,000.

Ventura argued that a woman “forced to wear a burqa” ceases to be “free and independent” and instead “becomes an object.” He accused the left of hypocrisy for defending women’s rights while “accepting a culture that oppresses them.”

"If you want to wear a burqa, there's a good solution. Catch a flight and go back to your country. It's easy to get to Portela Airport and buy a ticket back to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, wherever you want."

Chega leader @AndreCVentura speaks after the Portuguese… pic.twitter.com/DdyBUCnOBF

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) October 20, 2025

Speaking to journalists after the vote, Ventura addressed immigrants directly.

“If you want to wear a burqa, there’s a good solution. Catch a flight and go back to your country. It’s easy to get to Portela Airport and buy a ticket back to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco — wherever you want. You’re not needed here, sorry, but that’s the way it is.”

Chega lawmaker Madalena Cordeiro echoed the party’s stance, telling parliament:

“This isn’t Bangladesh, where everything is done as they please,” and declaring, “Enough of pretending that all cultures are equal.”

Ventura also noted that several European countries, including France, Austria, Belgium, and the Netherlands, have already enacted full or partial bans on face coverings, citing a European Court of Human Rights ruling that upheld France’s law as compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights.

The bill still requires the approval of President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who could sign it into law, veto it, or refer it to the Constitutional Court for review.

The debate in Portugal comes amid a broader European push to limit Islamic dress in public spaces.

In Denmark, the Danish People’s Party last week pledged to ban the hijab — a headscarf that does not cover the face — in all public places. “We must have Denmark back. A Denmark where there are no scarves in schools, where Danish is spoken in nursing homes, where the Danes are masters of their own house again,” party leader Morten Messerschmidt said.

In the Netherlands, both Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) and Caroline van der Plas’s Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) have promised to extend the current partial burqa ban across all public institutions ahead of next week’s parliamentary elections.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 03:30

Global Corporate Tax Levels Continue To Slide, But France Remains Highest

Since the turn of this century, OECD countries have experienced a marked trend of declining corporate tax rates.

The average corporate income tax rate applied by OECD members fell from about 33 percent in 2000 to between 24 and 25 percent in recent years (24.2 in 2025).

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiant details below, using the organization's data, France maintains the highest combined corporate tax rate in the OECD, at 36.1 percent in 2025, followed by Colombia (35 percent), while the lowest marginal corporate tax rate is found in Hungary, at 9 percent, followed by Ireland (12.5 percent).

You will find more infographics at Statista

In 2021, a major international agreement was reached under the guidance of the OECD to establish a minimum corporate tax rate of 15 percent on the profits of multinational companies, aimed at reducing tax inequalities and preventing profit shifting to low-tax territories.

Since then, many jurisdictions have taken steps towards the implementation of these rules into their domestic law, with the global minimum tax starting to apply from the beginning of 2024, although two countries (Hungary and Ireland) are yet to meet this requirement.

The challenge for OECD countries remains to strike a balance between economic attractiveness and tax fairness, while minimizing competitive distortions.

Advocates of low tax rates argue that they attract foreign investment and boost competitiveness, whereas critics point out that such rates can reduce useful public revenue (public services, social policies funding) and exacerbate inequality, particularly when large corporations benefit from preferential regime and aggressive tax optimization.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 02:45

Hungary 'Safest Country In Europe' Thanks To Viktor Orbán, Says Foreign Minister Ahead Of Peace Talks

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Hungary is now the safest country in Europe because of Viktor Orbán’s leadership and its commitment to diplomacy over war, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó declared on Sunday, announcing that Budapest is preparing to host a peace summit agreed by the American and Russian presidents.

Szijjártó said Hungary is “the most vocal European member of the international peace camp” and praised Orbán as the only European leader who has maintained “mutual respect” and cooperation with both Washington and Moscow through the war in Ukraine.

He said that from the very beginning of the Russian invasion, Hungary had offered to act as a mediator and is now ready to host a summit aimed at ending the conflict.

“We have just reached the point where the American and Russian presidents have agreed that the peace summit will be held in Budapest,” Szijjártó said. He echoed Orbán’s description of Hungary as “an island of peace,” contrasting this with what he described as “war policies” pursued by almost all other EU member states except Slovakia and Hungary.

“Brussels is preparing for war; it wants to arm Ukraine, wants to finance Ukraine with the money of the European people, while Hungary is organizing a peace summit. That is the difference,” he added.

The minister said Budapest had already been mentioned as a possible venue during preparations for a previous summit in Alaska. Orbán recently spoke with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and Hungarian officials have held talks with U.S. and Russian diplomats. Preparatory meetings will now be organized, after which the summit’s agenda and date will be finalized, Szijjártó said.

Rejecting accusations that Hungary had isolated itself, he argued the opposite was true: "The European Union has isolated itself from the world’s most powerful political players.”

He accused Brussels of alienating itself from the United States through hostility toward Trump, from China by calling it a “systemic rival” and imposing tariffs on Chinese electric cars, from Russia through sanctions and soaring energy costs, and from Africa by attaching “gender-mad conditions” to trade cooperation.

Szijjártó also accused European politicians of trying to block peace efforts.

“We can be sure that the vast majority of European Union politicians will do everything in the coming weeks or days to prevent this summit from taking place, because if the summit takes place, it offers a chance for peace, and they are interested in prolonging the war,” he said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/22/2025 - 02:00

1997–2025: When The West Is Distracted, China Advances

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,

For nearly three decades, the Western world has hardly had a calm time—terrorist attacks, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and deepening political fractures. Each has seized the headlines, drained treasuries, and monopolized the attention of policymakers from Washington to Brussels.

The result? A fractured focus, where urgent fires crowd out long-term threats.

But when aligning these moments of Western disarray against Beijing’s calendar, a pattern emerges. For whatever reason, many of China’s most pivotal advances—territorial, economic, institutional—have landed precisely during, or just ahead of, the West’s moments of distraction.

A Chronicle of Overlaps

It begins in the summer of 1997, on July 2. Thailand devalues its baht, unleashing the Asian Financial Crisis—that would engulf markets from Seoul to Jakarta, wiping out trillions in value and exposing the fragility of emerging “Asian Tiger” economies. Markets convulsed, currencies plummeted, and lenders scrambled.

Yet on July 1—just one day prior—Britain handed Hong Kong back to Beijing after 156 years of colonial rule. At the very moment Asia’s financial markets crashed, China assumed sovereignty over one of the world’s premier financial hubs: a gateway to global capital that would soon fuel its export machine.

Fast-forward to May 1999 during NATO’s Kosovo campaign. On May 7, U.S. warplanes, in a tragic error, bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, killing three and wounding dozens. Fury erupts. Days of protests surge outside American missions in Beijing and beyond, a raw wound that would fester in U.S.–China relations for years.

It’s worth noting that in China, demonstrations of this scale are almost always state-managed. That embassy strike seems to have etched a scar, eroding trust at a moment when the West was consumed by the moral and military imperatives of intervention. In July 1999, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched its persecution of the Falun Gong spiritual group, which continues to this day.

The turn of the millennium brought Sept. 11, 2001: Al-Qaeda’s hijackers struck the World Trade Center, claiming nearly 3,000 lives in the deadliest assault on U.S. soil. Washington, reeling, pivots to a global war on terror, reshaping alliances, budgets, and intelligence priorities.

Three months later that year, China formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), capping 15 years of negotiations and thrusting itself into the rules-based global economy, only to eventually flout most of them. While America mourned and mobilized, Beijing integrated, gaining access to markets that would fuel its manufacturing ascent.

By March 20, 2003, U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq, toppling Saddam Hussein in a campaign that would entangle the West for two decades. That same month, whispers of a new threat came from China: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) began spreading internationally, prompting the WTO to issue its first global alert on March 12 for clusters of atypical pneumonia in Guangdong and Hanoi. As Washington’s bandwidth vanished into the sands of the Middle East, the first modern pandemic came from the East, with Beijing initially denying it and later clamping down on reporting its true scale—basically punishing officials who reported the numbers, an early warning.

Migrant workers wearing protective face masks make their way to the train station as they leave the city over worries about SARS in Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province, China, on May 2, 2003. Christian Keenan/Getty Images

On July 7, 2005, suicide bombers shattered London’s transit system, killing 52 in a coordinated assault that, per the UK government’s inquiry, exposed gaping holes in counterterrorism readiness. Europe was alarmed, tightening borders and redoubling intelligence-sharing.

Meanwhile, Beijing, undeterred, accelerated its outbound investments through eased merger-and-acquisition rules and launched the inaugural U.S.–China Senior Dialogue in August that year—a forum for economic and security talks that would evolve into deeper bilateral ties. As Europe focused on anti-terrorism, China wove itself more tightly into Western financial webs.

August 2008 brought the Beijing Olympics, a dazzling showcase of China’s having “arrived.” By Sept. 15, Lehman Brothers’ collapse ignited the Global Financial Crisis, plunging the West into recession and prompting bailouts from Wall Street to London to Frankfurt. By November, Beijing unveiled a staggering $586 billion stimulus package—a lifeline that not only stabilized its own economy but propped up global commodity demand, from iron ore to oil. As Western banks teetered, China’s fiscal firepower accelerated its trajectory from factory floor to a creditor nation.

Protesters hold signs outside the White House during a demonstration organized by Amnesty International calling on China to respect human rights ahead of the 2008 Summer Olympic Games, in Washington on Feb. 11, 2008. Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images

Europe’s sovereign debt implosion followed in May 2010, with Greece’s first bailout exposing fissures in the eurozone. Beijing responded by ramping up overseas lending through state banks and, in September, imposing restrictions on rare-earth mineral exports. Massive investments and loans from Beijing began to buy European nations’ silence and acquiescence.

The early 2010s had multiple events: the Arab Spring protests of 2011 and 2012; Libya’s NATO-backed civil war; and persistent eurozone tremors. Western capitals juggled regime change, refugee flows, and austerity. In the shadows, Beijing methodically prepared its own transition of leadership: Xi Jinping’s elevation as heir apparent at the 2012 Party Congress, locking in a leadership transition primed for a more assertive posture. Global chaos provided the perfect cover for internal stealing and less scrutiny.

In March 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, defying current international norms and drawing Western sanctions. Then, in October, 21 nations—including several U.S. allies—signed the memorandum to found the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Beijing’s rival to the World Bank. As the West isolated Moscow, China was building a parallel financial architecture.

In 2015, in Europe, ISIS’s rampage culminated on Nov. 13 in the Paris attacks, killing 130 in gunfire and bombs that sent the continent into mourning and heightened alerts. That summer, China’s stock market had already cratered, erasing trillions in value by July; Beijing responded with capital controls in August, throttling outflows to stem the bleed. The EU’s gaze was on the jihadists, while Beijing fortified its financial ramparts.

The Brexit vote on June 23, 2016, fractured the façade of the European project, ushering in years of negotiation and uncertainty. Mere weeks later, on July 12, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled against the CCP’s expansive South China Sea claims, invalidating its “nine-dash line.” Beijing dismissed it outright, doubling down on island-building and patrols. The EU disarray mirrored—and perhaps muted—any unified Western rebuke.

By June 2019, Hong Kong’s streets ignited over an extradition bill, with mass protests that tested the CCP’s grip. This overlapped with escalating U.S. scrutiny: indictments against Huawei and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, unsealed in January but roiling through the year with arrest and extradition battles. Tech security emerged as the new fault line in great-power rivalry.

An "anti-extradition" parade with a million people packed the entire street in Hong Kong on June 9, 2019. Sung Pi-Lung/The Epoch Times

The pandemic arrived in late 2019, and in March 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a global emergency, with a reaction that overwhelmed hospitals and economies. Three months later, on June 30, Beijing imposed its National Security Law on Hong Kong, criminalizing dissent and drastically eroding the “one country, two systems” promise. Health crises drowned out major criticism.

August 2021 marked the United States’ exit from Afghanistan, which many have described as dismal, stranding allies and degrading U.S. credibility. Beijing wasted no time, hosting Taliban delegations in July and August to signal budding ties and position itself to fill the power vacuum in Central Asia.

On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leading to a protracted war of attrition. Just three weeks earlier, on Feb. 4, Xi and Putin had inked their “no-limits” partnership, a pact that would deepen military and economic bonds as missiles rained on Kyiv.

Hamas’s assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, unleashed the Gaza war, polarizing allies and straining Western unity. Earlier that year, in March, Beijing had brokered a surprise détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As the West navigated the renewed focus on the Middle East, China hedged, courting all energy-rich states while supporting Hamas.

And now, in 2025, the cycle spins on. The Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs—up to 60 percent on Chinese imports—face mounting court challenges, including a U.S. Supreme Court review set for its September term following the Federal Circuit’s Aug. 29 strike-down of IEEPA-based duties. Beijing adapts by rerouting supply chains through new trade blocs and circumvention paths, as global commerce hardens into rival spheres—a new name for the much-denied decoupling.

Emerging Patterns 

We can identify six tendencies when looking at the above ledger of corresponding events:

1. Distraction windows: China’s boldest strokes cluster amid Western crises, from territorial grabs to institutional launches.

2. Counter-cyclical advantage: When Western economies falter—think 2008 or 2010—Beijing expands, lending abroad or hoarding resources.

3. Institutional stress tests: As Wall Street wobbles or NATO strains, China erects alternatives, such as the AIIB, or defies rulings, such as those of The Hague.

4. Domestic consolidation: Global uproar muffles internal clampdowns, from Xi’s elevation to Hong Kong’s National Security Law.

5. Hedging and broker posture: In Gaza or Ukraine, Beijing plays the seemingly neutral broker, as with the Iran–Saudi Arabia deal.

6. A rhythm of 6 to 12 months: Moves happen within crisis windows, not dragging into years.

Sometimes, China acts just before the storm—the Olympics pre-Lehman, the Xi–Putin pact pre-Ukraine—and the distraction mutes retaliation. Did Beijing foresee these events, or worse? Perhaps. We have no proof either way. But the CCP’s ceaseless boundary-probing pays off when the West is otherwise occupied.

Addressing the Skeptics

To be clear, this pattern is far from flawless. But reality often is. For example, the Hong Kong handover was planned decades prior; the WTO accession was in the works for 15 years. Some moves, such as the 2008 stimulus, seemed to stem from China’s export problems. More generally, it is known that great powers act ceaselessly in many directions, so overlaps are inevitable.

However, so far, we’ve been pointing to a correlation, not a causation. The pattern does hold as a tendency. It is a signal, not noise. For whatever reasons, around the time distractions happen, Beijing pushes—and often prevails. 

We can see that the War on Terror devoured trillions—$8 trillion on Iraq and Afghanistan alone, per Brown University’s Costs of War project—diverting the executive branch, Congress, and alliances’ energy from China strategy. The Obama administration’s 2011 “pivot to Asia” was under-resourced and hampered by ongoing Middle Eastern quagmires.

The same goes for internal drivers—for example, the Chinese 2008 stimulus. One might say that it was to salvage China’s export economy, not to exploit the Western crisis. However, those domestic imperatives do gain extra runway when rivals are suddenly sidelined.

When it comes to criticizing China’s conduct, even in the Iraq era, American diplomacy still hammered human rights violations and undervaluation. But try to imagine the alternative: undivided focus yielding sharper sanctions, faster alliances, and bolder industrial policies. Distraction didn’t completely erase a response—it greatly diluted it.

It is important to note here that the CCP is extremely sensitive about public human rights criticism. This could be a huge leverage point for the West, which sadly it rarely uses.

Interpretation and Implications

All of the above does indicate strategic timing: opportunism, at minimum. Distractions slash the price of audacity, whether post-facto or preemptive. It’s also a dual-track advance: outwardly, institutions such as AIIB court the Global South; inwardly, controls tighten from Xinjiang to Hong Kong. Gains are then baked in before resistance forms.

This pattern reveals as much about Western vulnerabilities as it does about Chinese strategy, and perhaps a lack of a bird’s-eye view of the true picture of geopolitics. Our responses have been either too little or too much—and decidedly too late—creating gaps for the CCP to fill. 

As Mark Twain reputedly said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Here, the verse is unmistakable: When the West averts its gaze, China steps forward. It is up to us to be attuned to the rhyming and be ready to act.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 23:25

China's Battery Giants Flood Overseas Markets As Exports Surge 220%

By Alex Kimani of Oilprice.com

Last year, China's battery industry average utilization rate cratered to just a third of maximum capacity amid severe overcapacity following years of massive investment and expansion. This put smaller manufacturers under severe pressure and fueled further industry consolidation, while also forcing producers to increasingly seek overseas markets. Luckily, these efforts appear to be paying off: China Energy Storage Alliance has reported that Chinese battery storage forms secured ~200 overseas orders totalling 186 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in the first half of this year, good for a more than 220% year-over-year surge. Not surprisingly, just 5.34 GWh– less than 3% of the total--came from the United States amid hefty tariffs by the Trump administration compared to nearly 60% that came from the Middle East, Europe and Australia.

Back in April, the Trump administration imposed duties of up to 3,521% on solar imports from Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand, with the finalized tariffs applying to shipments from China’s solar heavyweights, including JinkoSolar and Trina Solar. Further, Chinese firms are increasingly diversifying their production bases in a bid to mitigate growing tariff risks from Washington. Currently, Chinese solar manufacturers have installed ~80% of overseas capacity including solar wafers, solar cells and modules in Southeast Asia.

“The industry used to say that you either go overseas or exit the game,” said Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar.

“Now, due to tariffs, simply exporting isn’t enough; you must also localise production abroad.”

China’s battery storage sector is also benefiting from a rebound by the local markets thanks to policy support by Beijing. China’s National Energy Administration recently unveiled a plan to mobilize 250 billion yuan (~$32 billion) in new investment to build 180 gigawatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027. Lately, Chinese companies that operate in the energy storage space have been posting robust growth as fundamentals continue to improve. During the first half of 2025, 47 of 55 listed companies in the Chinese energy storage sector were profitable. China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., one of the largest li-ion battery manufacturers in the world, reported H1 2025 operating revenue of RMB178.886 billion ($25.15 billion), good for a 7.3% increase year over year while net profit attributable to shareholders clocked in at RMB30.485 billion, up 33.33%. In its interim report, CATL revealed that sustained rapid growth in demand for energy storage cells driven by the global clean energy transition has been driving its impressive performance.

That said, battery storage expansion is expected to be a global trend: energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie has projected that global investment in battery storage will reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2034. This investment will be needed to support the installation of over 5,900 GW of new wind and solar capacity during that period. The report emphasizes that advanced, grid-forming battery technology is crucial for maintaining grid stability as renewable energy sources become more prevalent.

U.S. Battery Storage Explodes

For years, battery systems have only played a marginal role in U.S. electricity networks, with power utilities focusing more on building out capacity from natural gas plants and renewable energy sources. According to energy data portal Cleanview, five years ago, the United States had 74 times more wind farm capacity and 30 times more solar capacity than battery capacity within its power generation system.

However, steady cost declines coupled with rising energy density levels have encouraged utilities to ramp up their battery installations, with battery storage output now exceeding other power sources in certain power markets. And, it’s boom time for the U.S. utility-scale battery storage market: currently, there are only around 5 times more solar and wind capacity in the country compared to battery capacity, thanks in large part to a 40% decline in battery prices since 2022. Currently, 19 states have installed 100 MW or more of utility-scale battery storage. According to Cleanview, there are just under 30,000 megawatts (MW) of utility battery capacity across the U.S., good for a massive 15-fold increase since 2020.  For some context, the U.S. solar sector has added 84,200 MW over the timeframe, while the wind sector has increased its capacity by just 7,000 MW. Falling costs is the biggest reason for the surge in U.S. battery deployments: according to financial advisory and asset management firm Lazard the levelized cost of electricity  (LCOE) for utility-scale solar farms paired with batteries ranges from $50-$131 per megawatt hour (MWh). This makes the pair competitive with new natural gas peaking plants (LCOE of $47 to $170 per MWh) and even new coal-fired plants with LCOE of $114 per MWh.

According to Lazard's 2025 LCOE+ report, new-build renewable energy power plants are the most competitive form of power generation on an unsubsidized basis (i.e., without tax subsidies). This is highly significant in the current era of unprecedented power demand growth in large part due to the AI boom and clean energy manufacturing. Renewables also stand out as the quickest-to-deploy generation resource, with the solar plus battery combination often boasting far shorter deployment times compared to constructing new natural gas power plants. California is, by far, the national leader in utility-scale battery storage, accounting for ~13,000 MW or about 42% of the national total.  According to the California Energy Commission, the California Independent System Operator has installed ~21,000 MW of solar capacity and ~12,400 MW of battery capacity, allowing the state to rely heavily on batteries during peak demand periods.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 20:05

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, The AIA/Deltek's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

FDA Confirms Highest-Risk Level For Recall Of 6.7 Million Eggs

Are egg prices about to soar again?

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the recall of more than 6 million eggs across at least six states due to Salmonella contamination, according to a recently issued recall notice.

The FDA labeled the recall as Class I, the most severe under the agency’s rules, meaning it is a dangerous or defective product that could cause serious injury or death.

The recall was announced by Arkansas-based Black Sheep Egg Company earlier this month, the FDA said in a news release updated on Oct. 20

The impacted products include Black Sheep Egg Company-branded Free Range Large Grade A Brown Eggs with best by dates of Aug. 22, 2025, to Oct. 31, 2025, on the side of the carton, the FDA said.

“Products may have been further distributed to other states, and additional products will be added to this advisory as information becomes available,” the FDA said.

The Epoch Times' Jack Phillips reports that the FDA recall notice said that the eggs were sent to retail and wholesale locations in Arkansas and Missouri, and the products were also sent to broker locations in Mississippi, Texas, California, and Indiana.

An Epoch Times review of the notice shows that 522,915 dozen eggs were recalled in all, meaning that more than 6.27 million eggs are under recall.

“FDA is aware that recalled product could still be in people’s homes. More information about the distribution of this product will be provided as it becomes available,” the news release stated.

One of the companies that received the eggs, Texas-based Kenz Henz, on Oct. 16 recalled 12-count packages of Kenz Henz brand of Grade AA Large Pasture Raised eggs that were received from Black Sheep. The eggs were sold at stores in Houston, Texas, the FDA said.

For the Black Sheep recall, the products include Free Range Grade A Large Brown Eggs, Free Range Grade AA Large Brown Eggs, Free Range Grade AA Medium Brown Eggs, Free Range Grade AA Large White Eggs, and Free Range Grade AA Medium White Eggs.

The recalled products have UPC codes of either 860010568507 or 860010568538, the FDA said.

In a separate announcement from the FDA on Oct. 17,  no illnesses have been reported to date in connection with that specific recall. However, it’s not clear if any illnesses were reported to the agency in connection with the broader Black Sheep Egg Company recall.

The recalled Kenz Henz eggs are packaged in a 12-count carton that has a UPC code of 86949400030, with a best by date of Oct. 11 to Oct. 14, and Oct. 16 to Oct. 17 stamped on the side of the carton, according to the agency.

The FDA has warned consumers, retailers, and distributors not to eat, sell, or serve the recalled Black Sheep Egg Company eggs.

The health agency added that people should check their refrigerator for the recalled eggs and should throw them out or return them to the point of purchase. Consumers are also advised to clean and sanitize any areas or containers that the eggs may have touched.

People who may have been exposed to the eggs should look out for Salmonella symptoms, including diarrhea, fever, vomiting, dehydration, and abdominal cramps, among others. If symptoms develop, the FDA recommends that the person contact a health care provider.

Symptoms generally begin between six hours and six days after exposure and last up to a week, health officials say.

Although most people recover without medical treatment, the illness can be severe, especially for young children, older adults, and people with compromised immune systems.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 19:40

Rep. Dan Goldman Calls For ICE Agents To Be Arrested

Authored by Chris Wade via The Center Square,

A Democratic New York congressman is calling on the NYPD to arrest and prosecute ICE agents who engage in “unlawful actions” during federal immigration crackdowns in the city.

In a letter to NYPD commissioner Jessica Tisch, U.S. Rep. Dan Goldman rips U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection officers’ “outrageous and unlawful conduct” in cities around the country, saying they have been “violently and improperly” arresting U.S. citizens.

Goldman said with the “likely possibility” that the Department of Homeland Security will “send armies of agents into New York City for civil immigration purposes” he urged the NYPD to be “prepared to strictly enforce state and local laws in order to hold federal agents accountable for any unlawful actions they engage in, including potentially through arrest and prosecution for felony violations.”

“When immigration officials make warrantless arrests of U.S. citizens or lawful residents without reasonable suspicion to believe they have violated immigration law, they are acting outside the scope of their legal authority,” he wrote.

Goldman, a lawyer who as a House counsel participated in Donald Trump’s 2019 impeachment inquiry, cited ICE’s policy barring civil immigration enforcement authority against U.S. citizens.

 He said news outlets have reported that federal agents “have repeatedly detained or deported American citizens in clear violation of their constitutional rights.”

“No person, regardless of their badge, should be permitted to assault or unlawfully detain any New Yorker without facing consequences,” he wrote.

“In light of this failure of federal oversight, it is the responsibility of the city to uphold the rule of law and protect the public.”

There was no immediate response from the NYPD or ICE’s press office to the congressman’s letter.

New York City has been a flashpoint in the national immigration debate with more than 230,000 migrants arriving in the city between 2022 and 2024 following a surge of immigration on the U.S.-Mexico border under the previous Biden administration. ICE operations in the city have arrested nearly 29,000 undocumented immigrants, many with criminal histories, according to the agency’s website.

In July, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against New York City over its “sanctuary” policies that restrict cooperation with federal immigration crackdowns, accusing the city of shielding wanted criminals from deportation.

But federal immigration officials have faced criticism for aggressive immigration enforcement tactics — including violent arrests, and the use of tear gas to disperse crowds — as they detain and arrest migrants living in the United States who don’t have legal status to stay in the country.

Amid the crackdown, ICE has reported a dramatic increase in threats and acts of violence against its agents. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said last week that Mexican drug cartels have offered bounties from $2,000 to $50,000 for doxxing, kidnapping or killing ICE agents. Over the weekend, a New York man was arrested for threatening to firebomb ICE agents during a “No Kings” protest.

“Our agents are facing ambushes, drone surveillance, and death threats, all because they dare to enforce the laws passed by Congress,” Noem said last week in a statement. “We will not back down from these threats, and every criminal, terrorist, and illegal alien will face American justice.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 19:15

John Brennan Hit With Criminal Referral Over Steele Dossier Lies

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan on Tuesday referred former CIA director John Brennan to the Justice Department for prosecution, alleging that Brennan made false statements to Congress about how the 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian election interference handled material from the so-called Steele dossier.

In a five-page referral letter dated today, Jordan argues that Brennan’s sworn May 11, 2023 testimony conflicted with declassified records the committee says now show the dossier was not only reviewed by the CIA but also included - via an annex - in the intelligence community’s assessment. The letter invokes 18 U.S.C. § 1001, which makes it a crime to “knowingly and willfully” make materially false statements to Congress.

To wit - Brennan told lawmakers that “the CIA was not involved at all with the dossier” and that the agency was “very much opposed to having any reference or inclusion of the Steele dossier in the Intelligence Community Assessment.” But Jordan’s letter points to what it calls “Annex A” of the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), which it describes as a “two-page annex summarizing the Steele reporting” and drafted “in coordination with the [FBI]” under a joint decision by the CIA and FBI.

The broader context brings into focus the 2017 ICA, released Jan. 6 under the auspices of the Director of National Intelligence, concluding that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and developed a preference for Donald Trump. Earlier reviews by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Justice Department’s inspector general found that the dossier was included in a classified annex to the ICA - not in its main body - and that while the FBI and CIA debated how to handle it.

Jordan claims that the dossier’s language is contained in the main body of the ICA and that Brennan personally overruled CIA analysts who raised concerns about the dossier’s reliability - quoting an internal exchange attributed to Brennan in which he allegedly asked, “Yes, but doesn’t it ring true?”

According to Brennan: “my bottomline is that I believe that the information warrants inclusion in the report.”

The referral calls Brennan's lies “material” and part of a “pattern of Brennan’s willingness to lie to Congress" - pointing to Brennan’s earlier 2017 House Intelligence Committee appearance in which he said, “the dossier was not in any way used in the Intelligence Community Assessment” (a statement the letter says lies outside the statute of limitations but is relevant context).

For the Justice Department, the decision whether to open a criminal investigation hinges on determining that Brennan knowingly made false statements, and that the incorrect information was material - i.e., it could have affected the committee’s or government’s decision-making. 

For his part, Brennan has consistently defended the ICA’s core conclusion - that Moscow intervened in 2016 - and has maintained the CIA did not use unverified intelligence from the Steele reporting as the foundation for the assessment’s judgments. Yet, according to Jordan's letter, "Ultimately, according to documents declassified by the Trump Administration, the decision to incorporate information from the Steele dossier in the ICA “was jointly made by the Directors of CIA and FBI."

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• 6-Pack Water Straws (removes 99.9% of bacteria)

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 17:59

Netflix Crashes After Musk's "Cancel" Crusade Leads To Top, Bottom Line Miss

As Goldman wrote in its preview, positioning into today's earnings from Netflix was muted at best, with the stock serving as a "funding short" for various tech-linked pair trades. It is therefore safe to say that expectations were rather muted (with options pricing in 7.5% implied move). Well, for once Wall Street had it spot and whether or not this was due to Elon Musk's aggressive campaign to "Cancel Netflix" due to its tranny-endorsing content, moments ago the company reported results which were catastrophic, with the company missing on both the top and bottom line, and even though it went for the good ole' miss and hike forecasts, the stock - which is plunging after hours - did not buy it. 

Here are the highlights from Q3:

• EPS $5.87 vs. $5.40 y/y, badly missing estimate $6.94
   
• Revenue $11.51 billion, missing estimate $11.52 billion
  • US & Canada revenue $5.07 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimate $5.04 billion
  • EMEA revenue $3.70 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimate $3.68 billion
  • Latin America revenue $1.37 billion, +10% y/y, missing estimate $1.4 billion
  • APAC revenue $1.37 billion, +21% y/y, missing estimate $1.38 billion
     
• Operating income $3.25 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimate $3.63 billion
• Operating margin 28.2% vs. 29.6% y/y, missing estimate 31.6%
• Cash flow from operations $2.83 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimate $2.56 billion
• Free cash flow $2.66 billion, beating estimate $2.39 billion

Naturally, Reed Hastings and his woke, pedo-friendly outfit would never admit that Musk was responsible for the stock implosion, so he blamed some Brazilian BS instead: 

"Operating margin of 28% was below our guidance of 31.5% due to an expense related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities that was not in our forecast. Absent this expense, we would have exceeded our Q3'25 operating margin forecast. We don’t expect this matter to have a material impact on future results."

Yeah right. 

This is what else the company said about Q1:

Revenue in Q3 grew 17%, in-line with our forecast, driven primarily by membership growth, pricing adjustments, and increased ad revenue. Revenue was in-line with our guidance with the slight variance due to unfavorable movements in foreign currencies since we set our forecast.

Engagement remains healthy. We hit our highest quarterly view share ever in the US and UK, which has grown 15% and 22%, respectively since Q4’22, according to Nielsen and Barb.

Q3’25 operating income totaled $3.2B, up 12% year over year. Operating margin was 28% vs 30% in Q3’24. This was below our guidance forecast because we incurred an expense in Q3’25 of approximately $619 million related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities regarding certain non-income tax assessments. This expense was not included in our prior guidance forecast but was identified as a potential exposure in our prior 10-Q and 10-K filings. The expense, which covers periods from 2022 through Q3’25, was booked as a cost of revenue. The cumulative impact of this expense (approximately 20% of which is for the year 2025 with the remainder related to 2022-2024) reduced our Q3’25 operating margin by more than five percentage points. Absent this expense, we would have exceeded our Q3'25 operating margin forecast, and we don’t expect this matter to have a material impact on our results in the future. Diluted EPS was $5.87 vs. $5.40 last year (+9% year over year), $1.00 below forecast due to lower than forecasted operating income.

Hoping markets will quickly forget the atrocious Q3 numbers, NFLX was hoping market will just buy the outlook hype with the following Q4 guidance: 

• Revenue $11.96 billion, above the estimate $11.9 billion
• EPS $5.45, above estimate $5.42
• Operating income $2.86 billion, above estimate $2.88 billion
• Operating margin 23.9%, above estimate 24.1%

Looking ahead, NFLX said In Q4’25, it expects revenue growth of 17% (16% on a F/X neutral basis) driven by growth in members, pricing, and ad revenue. We project an operating margin of 23.9%, a two percentage point year over year improvement.

This means that for the full year 2025, we expect $45.1B in revenue (16% growth, 17% on an F/X neutral basis), in-line with our prior expectations for 15%-16% revenue growth (16%-17% on a F/X neutral basis). We’re now forecasting a 2025 operating margin of 29% (both reported and based on F/X rates as of 1/1/25), vs. our prior expectations for a 30% reported operating margin (29.5% based on F/X rates as of 1/1/25) due to the impact of the Brazilian tax matter.

NFLX also discussed its content slate, which according to the company "helped drive record TV view share in Q3 in the United States and the United Kingdom , two of our largest markets. Based on Nielsen and Barb data, from Q4’22-Q3’25, our quarterly 4 TV view share has grown 15% and 22% in the US and UK, respectively, as you see in the charts below. Given the still substantial amount of linear viewing globally, we believe there’s plenty of opportunity to expand our share of TV engagement, if we continue to improve."

Turning to the company's cash flow, it reported Q3 cash generated from operating of $2.8B vs. $2.3B in the prior year period. Free cash flow in Q3’25 totaled $2.7B vs. $2.2B in Q3’24. The company now expects 2025 free cash flow of approximately $9B (+/- a few hundred million dollars), up from its prior forecast of $8B-$8.5B. This new forecast
reflects the timing of cash payments and lower content spend.

During the quarter NFLX repurchased 1.5M shares for $1.9B, leaving $10.1B remaining under our existing share repurchase authorization. We ended the quarter with gross debt of $14.5B and cash and cash equivalents of $9.3B

There was a bunch more in the investor letter which readers can peruse at their leisure, but the only thing that mattered was the stock price, which explains why NFLX has been underperforming since June and has become the favorite hedge fund funding short.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 16:25

Netflix Crashes After Musk's "Cancel" Crusade Leads To Top, Bottom Line Miss

As Goldman wrote in its preview, positioning into today's earnings from Netflix was muted at best, with the stock serving as a "funding short" for various tech-linked pair trades. It is therefore safe to say that expectations were rather muted (with options pricing in 7.5% implied move). Well, for once Wall Street had it spot and whether or not this was due to Elon Musk's aggressive campaign to "Cancel Netflix" due to its tranny-endorsing content, moments ago the company reported results which were catastrophic, with the company missing on both the top and bottom line, and even though it went for the good ole' miss and hike forecasts, the stock - which is plunging after hours - did not buy it. 

Here are the highlights from Q3:

• EPS $5.87 vs. $5.40 y/y, badly missing estimate $6.94
   
• Revenue $11.51 billion, missing estimate $11.52 billion
  • US & Canada revenue $5.07 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimate $5.04 billion
  • EMEA revenue $3.70 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimate $3.68 billion
  • Latin America revenue $1.37 billion, +10% y/y, missing estimate $1.4 billion
  • APAC revenue $1.37 billion, +21% y/y, missing estimate $1.38 billion
     
• Operating income $3.25 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimate $3.63 billion
• Operating margin 28.2% vs. 29.6% y/y, missing estimate 31.6%
• Cash flow from operations $2.83 billion, +22% y/y, beating estimate $2.56 billion
• Free cash flow $2.66 billion, beating estimate $2.39 billion

Naturally, Reed Hastings and his woke, pedo-friendly outfit would never admit that Musk was responsible for the stock implosion, so he blamed some Brazilian BS instead: 

"Operating margin of 28% was below our guidance of 31.5% due to an expense related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities that was not in our forecast. Absent this expense, we would have exceeded our Q3'25 operating margin forecast. We don’t expect this matter to have a material impact on future results."

Yeah right. 

This is what else the company said about Q1:

Revenue in Q3 grew 17%, in-line with our forecast, driven primarily by membership growth, pricing adjustments, and increased ad revenue. Revenue was in-line with our guidance with the slight variance due to unfavorable movements in foreign currencies since we set our forecast.

Engagement remains healthy. We hit our highest quarterly view share ever in the US and UK, which has grown 15% and 22%, respectively since Q4’22, according to Nielsen and Barb.

Q3’25 operating income totaled $3.2B, up 12% year over year. Operating margin was 28% vs 30% in Q3’24. This was below our guidance forecast because we incurred an expense in Q3’25 of approximately $619 million related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities regarding certain non-income tax assessments. This expense was not included in our prior guidance forecast but was identified as a potential exposure in our prior 10-Q and 10-K filings. The expense, which covers periods from 2022 through Q3’25, was booked as a cost of revenue. The cumulative impact of this expense (approximately 20% of which is for the year 2025 with the remainder related to 2022-2024) reduced our Q3’25 operating margin by more than five percentage points. Absent this expense, we would have exceeded our Q3'25 operating margin forecast, and we don’t expect this matter to have a material impact on our results in the future. Diluted EPS was $5.87 vs. $5.40 last year (+9% year over year), $1.00 below forecast due to lower than forecasted operating income.

Hoping markets will quickly forget the atrocious Q3 numbers, NFLX was hoping market will just buy the outlook hype with the following Q4 guidance: 

• Revenue $11.96 billion, above the estimate $11.9 billion
• EPS $5.45, above estimate $5.42
• Operating income $2.86 billion, above estimate $2.88 billion
• Operating margin 23.9%, above estimate 24.1%

Looking ahead, NFLX said In Q4’25, it expects revenue growth of 17% (16% on a F/X neutral basis) driven by growth in members, pricing, and ad revenue. We project an operating margin of 23.9%, a two percentage point year over year improvement.

This means that for the full year 2025, we expect $45.1B in revenue (16% growth, 17% on an F/X neutral basis), in-line with our prior expectations for 15%-16% revenue growth (16%-17% on a F/X neutral basis). We’re now forecasting a 2025 operating margin of 29% (both reported and based on F/X rates as of 1/1/25), vs. our prior expectations for a 30% reported operating margin (29.5% based on F/X rates as of 1/1/25) due to the impact of the Brazilian tax matter.

NFLX also discussed its content slate, which according to the company "helped drive record TV view share in Q3 in the United States and the United Kingdom , two of our largest markets. Based on Nielsen and Barb data, from Q4’22-Q3’25, our quarterly 4 TV view share has grown 15% and 22% in the US and UK, respectively, as you see in the charts below. Given the still substantial amount of linear viewing globally, we believe there’s plenty of opportunity to expand our share of TV engagement, if we continue to improve."

Turning to the company's cash flow, it reported Q3 cash generated from operating of $2.8B vs. $2.3B in the prior year period. Free cash flow in Q3’25 totaled $2.7B vs. $2.2B in Q3’24. The company now expects 2025 free cash flow of approximately $9B (+/- a few hundred million dollars), up from its prior forecast of $8B-$8.5B. This new forecast
reflects the timing of cash payments and lower content spend.

During the quarter NFLX repurchased 1.5M shares for $1.9B, leaving $10.1B remaining under our existing share repurchase authorization. We ended the quarter with gross debt of $14.5B and cash and cash equivalents of $9.3B

There was a bunch more in the investor letter which readers can peruse at their leisure, but the only thing that mattered was the stock price, which explains why NFLX has been underperforming since June and has become the favorite hedge fund funding short.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 16:25

Here are a few photos from my trip to Patagonia:

Click on graph for larger image.

The first photo is at Cape Horn with a friend since high school. 
We were lucky to able to go ashore!

The albatross is a memorial to all the sailors that lost their lives sailing around the Cape.
Here is a poem on a plaque near the monument.

"I am the albatross that awaits you at the end of the world.
I am the forgotten souls of dead mariners who crossed Cape Horn from every sea on Earth.
But they did not die in the raging waves; today they fly on my wings toward eternity, in the last crevice of the Antarctic winds."
by Sara Vial


The second photo is at Torres del Paine National Park.

This shows the granite towers and horns.
The "horns" are sedimentary rock (black) on top of granite (gray).
The park is known for ferocious wind gusts - and it did not disappoint!









The third photo is also at Torres del Paine National Park.

This is at Gray Glacier Lake.

This lake is known for the bright blue icebergs - and there was a large one close to shore when we arrived.

"Paine" means blue in the indigenous language, so the park is named after the towers and the amazing blue lakes.

The wind was gusting up to 85 knots when I took this photo. You had to lean into the winds at times.

A great trip!