Individual Economists

MiB: Cory Doctorow on “Enshittification”

The Big Picture -



 

 

On this special, bonus edition of Masters in Business, I speak with Cory Doctorow, a science fiction author, activist, journalist and blogger. They discuss the power of large companies over the Internet, and Corey’s advocacy for data privacy. Barry and Cory discuss platform decay on the Internet, and how companies keep operating profitably while the user experience decays.

His new book is “Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It.”

An transcript will be posted below (shortly).

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Zach Buchwald, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Russell Investments. The global investment firm was founded in 1936, and today has ~$332 billion in AUM. Previously, he had a 15-year tenure at BlackRock, where he served as the head of its $2 trillion Institutional Business, leading the company’s Financial Institutions Group and helped establish its Retirement Solutions and Financial Markets Advisory platforms.

 

 

 

Transcript coming shortly…

 

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Transcript

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The post MiB: Cory Doctorow on “Enshittification” appeared first on The Big Picture.

Foreign Policy: Grading Trump's Second Term So Far

Zero Hedge -

Foreign Policy: Grading Trump's Second Term So Far

Following Dinesh D’Souza and Dave Smith’s clash on what really is America First last week, fault lines were largely drawn on geopolitical lines. Core differences between the Carlson-Gaetz-Bannon and Shapiro-Levin-Loomer camps of the conservative movement lie on issues like the U.S. relationship to Israel, the capture of Maduro, with some GOP hawks still supporting intervention in Eastern Europe.

Given the divide is on these grounds, the question is: How has Trump done on foreign policy in his second term?

Answering this question, tonight we’ll host Trump’s former National Security Council Chief of Staff Fred Fleitz against Libertarian Institute founder and antiwar.com editor Scott Horton covering South America to Middle East to Europe to Asia.

What the President does with Iran in the face of Israeli and neocon pressure may be a key question in the coming days.

Horton is firmly is the “stay the hell out” corner while Fleitz recently made his call for intervention known, citing agreement with former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich:

“The demonstrations may have stopped or ebbed because security forces are shooting at even small groups of people who gather on the street. Iran's FM yesterday told Fox that executions were off for Wednesday and Thursday but could not say about Friday. Other Iranian officials seem determined to begin executions. The regime is blaming the US, Israel, and drug traffickers  for the protests. Iranian officials are sending large funds out of the country. The US reportedly is moving military assets into the region, including the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier. I agree with Newt Gingrich that the Iranian regime is not about to fall but is struggling to survive.  I also agree with Newt that the Iranian people cannot overthrow the regime without outside help. Iran will never be the same after this brutal crackdown. The fall of the regime is within sight.”

Another open question of Trump’s foreign policy is the fate of Greenland. Hosting will be David Rand from the Human Reaction podcast.

We’ll see you tonight at 7pm ET, live on the homepage, X, and YouTube.
 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 11:25

Trump's "Green Deal" Has Fully Shattered The Liberal World Order

Zero Hedge -

Trump's "Green Deal" Has Fully Shattered The Liberal World Order

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Green Stocks Land

The Greenland crisis was logically always likely to end quickly, to market approval, due to European geostrategic weakness, but still herald a new world order that markets don’t understand and won’t like once they do. That’s exactly how it’s now played out.

At Davos, President Trump ruled out the use of force but gave Europe and NATO an ultimatum on Greenland: within hours, a ‘framework deal’ was struck and threatened US tariffs on eight EU countries have been removed. This reportedly echoes the post-imperial arrangement the UK has with Cyprus. The US gains time-unlimited (Trump: “Forever”) access to areas of Greenland around military bases, as well as concessions for critical minerals, and the island will host the US Golden Dome missile defense shield. There will also be a far greater, permanent European NATO focus on its defense and the Northern Passage.

Those who say TACO all the time will cluck here. Those who see Republicans serve up ‘American Greenland’ cake at a Kennedy Centre event, Trump forcing vastly higher defense spending on all US allies, being paid tariff revenues that aren’t part of any agreed FTA, receiving trillions in pledged inwards FDI which the US will direct, and putting Iran’s nuclear programme under rubble and Venezuela’s Maduro in a New York courtroom, will argue it’s Europe that yielded, and will be forced to spend even more on Arctic defence, and to move even further under a US shield and a critical minerals processing compact, not its own independent ones.  

For markets, that’s the good news. The bad news is that the liberal world order is shattered.

Trump didn’t invade – and he was never going to except in some fevered imaginations. Yet he demonstrated to Europe he could, as could others in the future, and there’s presently nothing they can do about it. That’s how the world always worked until the past few decades, and it’s how it will work again going forwards.

For example, as Europe looks north-west, this week saw the US suddenly withdraw support for the Kurdish region of Syria that has thrived in recent years as it opts to back the former-jihadi Syrian president instead: there are already reports of appalling violence being inflicted on Kurds there. If Europe noticed that development to its south-east, it’s completely powerless to do anything about it if it disagrees – which isn’t clear at all either.

Moreover, on top of trade, energy, tech, finance, and NATO/Ukraine as points of relative European geostrategic weakness, once one accepts realpolitik, consider that if Europe ever ‘pivots to China’, as some have whispered, the US can ‘pivot to Russia’ and arm it against Ukraine and Europe. If Europe thinks it has that China card in its pocket, it needs to be aware that the US still has more of them.

That’s hardly the foundation for a solid Western alliance. Indeed, even with tariff threats removed, the European establishment loves America but in private evidently wishes Trump were gone – ECB President Lagarde walked out of a Davos dinner after anti-EU barbs from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Equally, the US President states in public that he loves Europe and his admin that they wish its establishment was gone (see the NSS). So where to from here?

Logically, leaderships could change. November 2026 looms, as does the French presidential election in April 2027. Yet some genies aren’t so easily put back into bottles.

As such, it’s down to the realpolitik of who has the best cards. Canada’s PM Carney, who didn’t meet Trump at Davos, earlier made a much-publicized speech which stated: “Many countries are drawing the same conclusions - that they must develop greater strategic autonomy: in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains. And this impulse is understandable. A country that can’t feed itself, fuel itself or defend itself has few options. When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.” That sounds exactly like Trump.

Yet as George Magnus points out, Carney citing Czech anti-communist dissident Vaclav Havel’s ‘The Power of the Powerless’ to call out Trump and the polite hypocrisies of the liberal world order doesn’t sit easily with him heading to China to strike trade deals. That’s Trump’s game, played with far weaker cards. Today, the powerless are… powerless.

Indeed, Trump noted from the Davos stage: “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” As the Canadian press puts it, ‘At Davos, a new great game dawns for the world. Which way, Canada?’ And all of us.

In the short term, green land - because TACO, or because Europe in 2026 is Egypt of 1956. In the long term, it’s unclear – and starkly binary.

Europe and others can try to go their own way. For example, Spain just urged the EU to create a joint army. Yet that’s the same Spain that adamantly refuses to spend 5% of GDP on defence within NATO. Talk is cheap. Preparation for war, or for strategic autonomy, is mind-blowingly expensive, and the US can block these moves every step of the way. Or European disunity can block itself: the European parliament just voted for the new EU-Mercosur deal to be given judicial review, which will delay it for a year. Trump deals seem to get agreed on a handshake or a tweet.

Or Europe and others will see policy after policy directed by the US. Consider the EU just watered down its green rules to ensure it can keep flows of Qatari LNG; and symbolically, the World Economic Forum is considering moving from Davos to new places. Like Florida?

Long-term planning is going to be very hard if you don’t know who is doing it for you – the US, or Europe – or China?

Domestic politics will also twist and turn in tandem. In Australia, the opposition coalition between the Liberals and the Nationals has just shattered again for the second time in a year. This time, it may not come back together as One Nation surge in the polls.

In markets, at Davos, ‘Wall Street Chiefs Try to Lay Low to Avoid Trump’s Trolling’ says Bloomberg, which summarises the mood.

Eyes are on the Supreme Court, which in hearing oral arguments expressed scepticism over Trump’s bid to sack Lisa Cook from the Fed, with specific mention of the importance of its independence. That Trump front matters as much, if not more, than Greenland, and potentially opens up a new world order to the same extent. If he wins there it would again mean green land at first, because “rate cuts!”, but then serious questions over what/where next.

There is also relative calm in Japan, which is also in the green following efforts to stabilize things after the wild volatility in JGB markets this week. That trend, which some try to paint as "a quarrel in a faraway land between people of which we know nothing", with no implications for sensible developed markets like Europe, is also a warning. Japan just ran its fifth consecutive annual trade deficit in 2025, and it’s that development --alongside “it’s baaack” inflation-- which is undermining its ability to stabilize its markets without relying on the kindness others.

That structural threat looms ahead for many economies and is another reason why they need to not only be ‘resilient’ but to run trade surpluses --which obviously not everybody can-- or find a bloc they can sit within that will support them. And sometimes that choice is made for them.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 11:05

Zelensky Blasts Europe's Inaction, Paralysis As Greenland Sideshow Consumes Attention

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky Blasts Europe's Inaction, Paralysis As Greenland Sideshow Consumes Attention

"Europe loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action today." As Bloomberg has described it, a visibly angry Zelensky Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tore into European leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. "Where is the line of leaders who are ready to act?" he questioned.

Highlighting that his own capital is in the midst of a power and water crisis after nightly Russian bombardment, Zelensky shamed European capitals for being unwilling to stop Putin, now nearly four years into the war. This included emphasis on the failed push to outright seize frozen Russian assets in Europe. Is he taking a page from Trump's playbook, taking the opportunity to blame and lash out at Europe? The talk had themes of a fragmented Europe which looks lost in the face of much stronger and more decisive US power and Trump's demands.

Zelensky in Davos, Shutterstock/BBC

"Why can President Trump stop tankers from the shadow fleet and seize oil, when Europe doesn't?" Zelensky posed. "If Putin has no money, there is no war for Europe."

"We should not accept that Europe is just a salad of small and middle powers, seasoned with enemies of Europe," Zelensky continued. "When Ukraine is with you, no one will wipe their feet on you. And you will always have a way to act – and act in time."

"To defend our land is a very expensive task," he had also said during the later Q&A session. Zelensky mentioned that in his meeting with President Donald Trump earlier in the day, which lasted about an hour, he left as his final communication to Trump that Ukraine desperately needs more anti-air defenses, especially Patriot missiles.

Trump for his part had said it was a good meeting, and that "Everybody wants to have the war end," - but that he'll have to "see what happens," adding that the US is meeting with Russia tomorrow.

In Zelensky's speech he interestingly alluded to distractions currently facing global leaders, including Greenland and Iran. He paralleled the deadly Iran protests with the world's 'inaction' in Ukraine. He went so far as to charge global leaders of not wanting to extend support for Iranians, "and the democracy they need".

"When you refuse to help people fighting for freedom, the consequences return - and they are always negative," Zelensky said. According to more:

Zelensky then moves on to international discussion about the Iranian protests, which he says has "drowned in blood".

Linking the example of the US's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, he comes back to the impasse over Ukraine, saying that while Maduro is in New York awaiting trial, "Putin is not".

On Greenland, he said European leaders seem to believe someone else will do something to resolve the issue. Still, everyone is "waiting for America to cool down on this topic, waiting for it to pass away," he said.

One interesting moment came in Zelensky's introductory remarks, in which he referenced the early 1990s film Groundhog Day - where the lead character repeats the same day over and over again.

"No one wants to live like that," Zelensky observed, "repeating the same thing for weeks, months, years. And that's how we live now."

Meanwhile, while Zelensky spoke in Davos...

Despite the change in tone and sentiment when addressing Europe, there's not much even the 'coalition of the willing' can do in the face of Zelensky's impassioned plea - which was also filled with frustration. If the Western alliance keeps poking Russia too strongly, the bear will react in even bigger ways - already as each side is trying to keep a lid on prior nuclear threats and rhetoric.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:20

Zelensky Blasts Europe's Inaction, Paralysis As Greenland Sideshow Consumes Attention

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky Blasts Europe's Inaction, Paralysis As Greenland Sideshow Consumes Attention

"Europe loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action today." As Bloomberg has described it, a visibly angry Zelensky Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tore into European leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. "Where is the line of leaders who are ready to act?" he questioned.

Highlighting that his own capital is in the midst of a power and water crisis after nightly Russian bombardment, Zelensky shamed European capitals for being unwilling to stop Putin, now nearly four years into the war. This included emphasis on the failed push to outright seize frozen Russian assets in Europe. Is he taking a page from Trump's playbook, taking the opportunity to blame and lash out at Europe? The talk had themes of a fragmented Europe which looks lost in the face of much stronger and more decisive US power and Trump's demands.

Zelensky in Davos, Shutterstock/BBC

"Why can President Trump stop tankers from the shadow fleet and seize oil, when Europe doesn't?" Zelensky posed. "If Putin has no money, there is no war for Europe."

"We should not accept that Europe is just a salad of small and middle powers, seasoned with enemies of Europe," Zelensky continued. "When Ukraine is with you, no one will wipe their feet on you. And you will always have a way to act – and act in time."

"To defend our land is a very expensive task," he had also said during the later Q&A session. Zelensky mentioned that in his meeting with President Donald Trump earlier in the day, which lasted about an hour, he left as his final communication to Trump that Ukraine desperately needs more anti-air defenses, especially Patriot missiles.

Trump for his part had said it was a good meeting, and that "Everybody wants to have the war end," - but that he'll have to "see what happens," adding that the US is meeting with Russia tomorrow.

In Zelensky's speech he interestingly alluded to distractions currently facing global leaders, including Greenland and Iran. He paralleled the deadly Iran protests with the world's 'inaction' in Ukraine. He went so far as to charge global leaders of not wanting to extend support for Iranians, "and the democracy they need".

"When you refuse to help people fighting for freedom, the consequences return - and they are always negative," Zelensky said. According to more:

Zelensky then moves on to international discussion about the Iranian protests, which he says has "drowned in blood".

Linking the example of the US's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, he comes back to the impasse over Ukraine, saying that while Maduro is in New York awaiting trial, "Putin is not".

On Greenland, he said European leaders seem to believe someone else will do something to resolve the issue. Still, everyone is "waiting for America to cool down on this topic, waiting for it to pass away," he said.

One interesting moment came in Zelensky's introductory remarks, in which he referenced the early 1990s film Groundhog Day - where the lead character repeats the same day over and over again.

"No one wants to live like that," Zelensky observed, "repeating the same thing for weeks, months, years. And that's how we live now."

Meanwhile, while Zelensky spoke in Davos...

Despite the change in tone and sentiment when addressing Europe, there's not much even the 'coalition of the willing' can do in the face of Zelensky's impassioned plea - which was also filled with frustration. If the Western alliance keeps poking Russia too strongly, the bear will react in even bigger ways - already as each side is trying to keep a lid on prior nuclear threats and rhetoric.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:20

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs

Zero Hedge -

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs

Before we all get too excited, bear in mind that this is November's data - so still horribly stale (and also missing October's data point entirely) - but it's all we have for now, so let's dive in...

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), which leave it up 2.8% YoY (as expected), slightly lower than September's +2.9%...

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that this morning's third look at Q3 GDP printed a +2.9% YoY for Core PCE.

Under the hood, the biggest driver of Core PCE remains Services costs - not tariff-driven Goods prices...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, on a MoM basis, Non-durable goods prices saw deflation for the second month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PCE rose 2.8% YoY (es expected), stubbornly refusing to show any signs of runaway Trump tariff costs...

Source: Bloomberg

The closely-watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.2% MoM which ticked up the YoY rise to 3.1%...

Source: Bloomberg

After surging in October, November saw Financial Services & Insurance and Healthcare cost inflation slow...

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, amid rising prices, Americans' spending outpaced incomes once again...

Source: Bloomberg

...with wage growth slowing for all:

  • Private worker wages and salaries: 4.1% YoY, down from 4.5%, lowest since June 2025

  • Govt work wages and salaries 2.6%, tied for lowest since March 2021

All of which dragged the savings rate down to its lowest since Nov 2022...

TL/DR: While this data is admittedly stale, it shows no signs of 1) tariff-driven inflation or 2) a slowing consumer.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:12

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs

Zero Hedge -

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs

Before we all get too excited, bear in mind that this is November's data - so still horribly stale (and also missing October's data point entirely) - but it's all we have for now, so let's dive in...

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), which leave it up 2.8% YoY (as expected), slightly lower than September's +2.9%...

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that this morning's third look at Q3 GDP printed a +2.9% YoY for Core PCE.

Under the hood, the biggest driver of Core PCE remains Services costs - not tariff-driven Goods prices...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, on a MoM basis, Non-durable goods prices saw deflation for the second month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PCE rose 2.8% YoY (es expected), stubbornly refusing to show any signs of runaway Trump tariff costs...

Source: Bloomberg

The closely-watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.2% MoM which ticked up the YoY rise to 3.1%...

Source: Bloomberg

After surging in October, November saw Financial Services & Insurance and Healthcare cost inflation slow...

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, amid rising prices, Americans' spending outpaced incomes once again...

Source: Bloomberg

...with wage growth slowing for all:

  • Private worker wages and salaries: 4.1% YoY, down from 4.5%, lowest since June 2025

  • Govt work wages and salaries 2.6%, tied for lowest since March 2021

All of which dragged the savings rate down to its lowest since Nov 2022...

TL/DR: While this data is admittedly stale, it shows no signs of 1) tariff-driven inflation or 2) a slowing consumer.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:12

"Totally Absurd": Circle CEO Rejects Bank-Run Fearmongering Over Stablecoin Yields

Zero Hedge -

"Totally Absurd": Circle CEO Rejects Bank-Run Fearmongering Over Stablecoin Yields

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Jeremy Allaire, CEO of the publicly listed stablecoin issuer Circle, said interest payments on stablecoins do not pose a threat to banks.

Speaking Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Allaire described concerns that stablecoin yields could cause bank runs as “totally absurd,” citing historical precedents and existing reward-based financial services already in use.

“They help with stickiness, they help with customer traction,” Allaire said, adding that interest itself is not large enough to undermine monetary policy.

Allaire’s comments came amid heated debate over stablecoin yields, including in discussions over the US CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a federal market structure framework for digital assets.

Allaire points to money market funds as a historical parallel

Allaire pointed to government money market funds as a historical parallel, noting they faced similar warnings about draining bank deposits.

Yet it has been “around $11 trillion of dollar money market funds that grew in various different circumstances,” Allaire said, adding that this has not stopped lending.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire at the WEF panel on Thursday. Source: WEF

“Meanwhile, lending is already shifting away from banks toward private credit and capital markets. In the US, much of GDP growth over multiple cycles has been funded through capital-market debt, not bank loans,” he said. “We want to build models for lending that build on top of stablecoins.”

Circle CEO says stablecoins are the only viable money for AI agents

Allaire also highlighted artificial intelligence as a major driver of future stablecoin adoption.

He said “billions of AI agents” will need a payment system, adding that “there is no other alternative other than stablecoins to do that right now.”

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. Source: YZi Labs

Similar views were echoed elsewhere at the forum. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said Thursday at Davos that crypto payments could be essential for AI-driven transactions.

In September, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz predicted that AI agents will become the biggest stablecoin user “sometime in the near distant future.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:00

"Totally Absurd": Circle CEO Rejects Bank-Run Fearmongering Over Stablecoin Yields

Zero Hedge -

"Totally Absurd": Circle CEO Rejects Bank-Run Fearmongering Over Stablecoin Yields

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Jeremy Allaire, CEO of the publicly listed stablecoin issuer Circle, said interest payments on stablecoins do not pose a threat to banks.

Speaking Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Allaire described concerns that stablecoin yields could cause bank runs as “totally absurd,” citing historical precedents and existing reward-based financial services already in use.

“They help with stickiness, they help with customer traction,” Allaire said, adding that interest itself is not large enough to undermine monetary policy.

Allaire’s comments came amid heated debate over stablecoin yields, including in discussions over the US CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a federal market structure framework for digital assets.

Allaire points to money market funds as a historical parallel

Allaire pointed to government money market funds as a historical parallel, noting they faced similar warnings about draining bank deposits.

Yet it has been “around $11 trillion of dollar money market funds that grew in various different circumstances,” Allaire said, adding that this has not stopped lending.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire at the WEF panel on Thursday. Source: WEF

“Meanwhile, lending is already shifting away from banks toward private credit and capital markets. In the US, much of GDP growth over multiple cycles has been funded through capital-market debt, not bank loans,” he said. “We want to build models for lending that build on top of stablecoins.”

Circle CEO says stablecoins are the only viable money for AI agents

Allaire also highlighted artificial intelligence as a major driver of future stablecoin adoption.

He said “billions of AI agents” will need a payment system, adding that “there is no other alternative other than stablecoins to do that right now.”

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. Source: YZi Labs

Similar views were echoed elsewhere at the forum. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said Thursday at Davos that crypto payments could be essential for AI-driven transactions.

In September, Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz predicted that AI agents will become the biggest stablecoin user “sometime in the near distant future.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 10:00

NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply

Zero Hedge -

NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply

US natural gas futures are ripping higher, up roughly 75% in just three trading days, and are on pace to post the largest weekly gain on record.

The move has all the signs of a classic winter-driven short squeeze, with traders scrambling to cover as a polar blast descends into the Lower 48.

An intense Arctic blast and a sprawling winter storm system, drawing comparisons to the Blizzard of '96, are set to sweep across the eastern half of the US this weekend.

Weather models point to prolonged sub-freezing temperatures, raising the risk of freeze-offs in the Appalachian Basin, a critical US NatGas supply region.

Energy research firm Criterion Research was the first to warn that NatGas production disruptions across Appalachia could materially tighten balances at the worst possible time, just as heating demand spikes. Any sustained freeze-offs would not only pressure spot supply but could also stress regional power grids.

Criterion Research explained:

Winter is Coming for Appalachia

This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.

Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in lower and longer than Winter Storm Elliott (Dec 2022.)

During Eliott, regional production dropped 25-30%.

We cited Criterion Research on Wednesday (read here), which outlined where the production freeze-offs are likely to emerge.

At least 175 million people across the Lower 48 will face snow, rain, sleet and ice through the weekend as record-breaking cold pours into the eastern half of the US. Below-zero temperatures are expected to boost heating demand at a time when pipeline freeze-offs could disrupt gas production.

We warned on Wednesday:

Recall Winter Storm Uri in 2021, when extreme cold paralyzed the NatGas supply and collapsed the ERCOT grid in Texas for a week. A scenario like that could be in play in parts of the eastern US, regions where power grids are already tight because of bad 'green' energy policies colliding with the era of data centers.

Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB AB, commented on Natty prices ripping higher: "This is a textbook winter-driven squeeze: fast, violent, and sentiment-shifting."

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 09:00

NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply

Zero Hedge -

NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply

US natural gas futures are ripping higher, up roughly 75% in just three trading days, and are on pace to post the largest weekly gain on record.

The move has all the signs of a classic winter-driven short squeeze, with traders scrambling to cover as a polar blast descends into the Lower 48.

An intense Arctic blast and a sprawling winter storm system, drawing comparisons to the Blizzard of '96, are set to sweep across the eastern half of the US this weekend.

Weather models point to prolonged sub-freezing temperatures, raising the risk of freeze-offs in the Appalachian Basin, a critical US NatGas supply region.

Energy research firm Criterion Research was the first to warn that NatGas production disruptions across Appalachia could materially tighten balances at the worst possible time, just as heating demand spikes. Any sustained freeze-offs would not only pressure spot supply but could also stress regional power grids.

Criterion Research explained:

Winter is Coming for Appalachia

This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.

Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in lower and longer than Winter Storm Elliott (Dec 2022.)

During Eliott, regional production dropped 25-30%.

We cited Criterion Research on Wednesday (read here), which outlined where the production freeze-offs are likely to emerge.

At least 175 million people across the Lower 48 will face snow, rain, sleet and ice through the weekend as record-breaking cold pours into the eastern half of the US. Below-zero temperatures are expected to boost heating demand at a time when pipeline freeze-offs could disrupt gas production.

We warned on Wednesday:

Recall Winter Storm Uri in 2021, when extreme cold paralyzed the NatGas supply and collapsed the ERCOT grid in Texas for a week. A scenario like that could be in play in parts of the eastern US, regions where power grids are already tight because of bad 'green' energy policies colliding with the era of data centers.

Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB AB, commented on Natty prices ripping higher: "This is a textbook winter-driven squeeze: fast, violent, and sentiment-shifting."

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 09:00

US Q3 GDP Revised Up to 4.4%, Highest In Two Years

Zero Hedge -

US Q3 GDP Revised Up to 4.4%, Highest In Two Years

While it's ancient history now - even preceding the record long government shutdown - and nobody will care, moments ago the BEA reported that its first revision of third quarter GDP came in a bit hotter than expected as US GDP grew slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports. Due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for the third quarter of 2025 replaces the release of the third estimate originally scheduled for December 19, 2025, the BEA reported.

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, and up 0.1% from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. That said, the change was minuscule: it went up from an unrounded 4.340% to 4.370%.

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter than in the second. 

Real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, primarily reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up. 

Here is the breakdown: 

  • Personal consumption contributed 2.34% to the bottom line, slightly lower than the 2.39% originally reported.
  • Fixed Investment added 0.15%, also revised lower from 0.19%
  • Change in private inventories was a net improvement, raising from -0.22% to -0.12%, if still subtracting from the bottom line
  • Net trade (exports less imports) was also revised favorably up from 1.59% to 1.62%
  • Finally, government added 0.38% to the bottom line print, effectively the same as 0.39% before.

And visually:

Real gross output increased 3.2% in the third quarter, reflecting increases of 4.4% for private services-producing industries and 2.1% for government that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.1% for private goods-producing industries. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.4% in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 3.4%, the same as previously estimated.

From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases of 5.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries and 3.6 percent for private goods-producing industries that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.3 percent in real value added for government.  

Finally, while it's beyond ancient history now, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4% in the third quarter, the same as previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.9%, both the same as previously estimated. A much more timely print of core PCE for November will be reported at 10am today.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:57

House To Vote On Bill To Fund The Government

Zero Hedge -

House To Vote On Bill To Fund The Government

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a multi-bill package to fund the federal government on Thursday.

The legislation includes funding for the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.

Most portions of the bill are expected to pass easily as members of both parties seek to avoid a repeat of the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, that accompanied the previous government funding fight.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are among those, and both leaders have expressed a desire to work with Republicans to pass the 12 annual government funding bills ahead of the Jan. 30 funding deadline.

Though it includes some spending cuts, the package largely holds funding levels at fiscal year 2025 rates.

Republicans are expected to back the legislation largely along party lines.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), the lead Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, praised the bill in a statement, saying it “reflects the core tenets of American strength: combat-ready forces, secure communities, effective education and health systems, and modern transportation. At every level, it applies innovation and discipline to deliver results without waste.”

In line with leadership’s desire to avoid a government shutdown, the sections of the bill related to funding for the departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development are expected to gain Democratic support as well.

However, one segment of the funding has proven divisive.

DHS Funding Controversy

Ahead of the vote, Democrats came out en masse against the portion of the bill that would fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Democrats have been increasingly critical of the agency that oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), criticism that has only intensified in the wake of the ICE-involved shooting of Renée Nicole Good in Minneapolis.

In the aftermath of the shooting, Democrats have called for President Donald Trump to back off on the deployment of ICE agents to Democrat-run areas, while the party’s progressive wing has renewed calls to “abolish ICE.”

In Congress, lawmakers have largely urged funding cuts or policy reforms.

While this package includes reforms, several Democrats have indicated that they don’t go far enough and have expressed an intention to oppose the bill.

Despite this opposition, the DHS funding measure is expected to pass with wide GOP support and support from some Democrats.

ICE Reforms

The bill would implement several changes to ICE’s policies and procedures.

One measure in the bill would provide $20 million to ICE for the procurement and deployment of body cameras for ICE and other immigration agents engaged in domestic law enforcement activities. It would similarly require standardization of ICE and immigration agents’ uniforms.

It provides additional funding for civil liberties-related oversight of ICE activities.

The bill would also mandate additional training for immigration agents operating within the U.S. interior, with a focus on de-escalation.

It also instructs DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to ensure that all immigration agents are properly trained on Americans’ First Amendment right to record federal agents during public operations.

It also provides substantially fewer detention beds than were requested by the administration, instead cutting the number. While 50,000 beds were requested, an increase, the bill would cut the total number of detention beds to 41,500, marking a decrease of 5,500 beds.

It also slightly reduces funding for enforcement and removal operations, cutting $115 million.

However, for many Democrats, these reforms don’t go far enough.

Democrats Split

Democrats are split on the issue, though many have expressed opposition to the bill.

Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), a member of the House Appropriations Committee, expressed opposition to the bill in a post on X.

“The 2026 Homeland Security funding bill that the House is voting on this week is an easy NO for me. It’s a blank check with no accountability for DHS’s outrageous abuses,” Underwood wrote.

Several other House Democrats on the Appropriations subcommittee have similarly indicated plans to oppose the bill.

However, others have indicated plans to support the bill or have otherwise said they’re undecided.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic appropriator, has said she'll back the legislation, citing the reforms.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), a moderate in a red-trending district, has also expressed his intention to support the bill.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:45

House To Vote On Bill To Fund The Government

Zero Hedge -

House To Vote On Bill To Fund The Government

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a multi-bill package to fund the federal government on Thursday.

The legislation includes funding for the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.

Most portions of the bill are expected to pass easily as members of both parties seek to avoid a repeat of the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, that accompanied the previous government funding fight.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are among those, and both leaders have expressed a desire to work with Republicans to pass the 12 annual government funding bills ahead of the Jan. 30 funding deadline.

Though it includes some spending cuts, the package largely holds funding levels at fiscal year 2025 rates.

Republicans are expected to back the legislation largely along party lines.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), the lead Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, praised the bill in a statement, saying it “reflects the core tenets of American strength: combat-ready forces, secure communities, effective education and health systems, and modern transportation. At every level, it applies innovation and discipline to deliver results without waste.”

In line with leadership’s desire to avoid a government shutdown, the sections of the bill related to funding for the departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development are expected to gain Democratic support as well.

However, one segment of the funding has proven divisive.

DHS Funding Controversy

Ahead of the vote, Democrats came out en masse against the portion of the bill that would fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Democrats have been increasingly critical of the agency that oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), criticism that has only intensified in the wake of the ICE-involved shooting of Renée Nicole Good in Minneapolis.

In the aftermath of the shooting, Democrats have called for President Donald Trump to back off on the deployment of ICE agents to Democrat-run areas, while the party’s progressive wing has renewed calls to “abolish ICE.”

In Congress, lawmakers have largely urged funding cuts or policy reforms.

While this package includes reforms, several Democrats have indicated that they don’t go far enough and have expressed an intention to oppose the bill.

Despite this opposition, the DHS funding measure is expected to pass with wide GOP support and support from some Democrats.

ICE Reforms

The bill would implement several changes to ICE’s policies and procedures.

One measure in the bill would provide $20 million to ICE for the procurement and deployment of body cameras for ICE and other immigration agents engaged in domestic law enforcement activities. It would similarly require standardization of ICE and immigration agents’ uniforms.

It provides additional funding for civil liberties-related oversight of ICE activities.

The bill would also mandate additional training for immigration agents operating within the U.S. interior, with a focus on de-escalation.

It also instructs DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to ensure that all immigration agents are properly trained on Americans’ First Amendment right to record federal agents during public operations.

It also provides substantially fewer detention beds than were requested by the administration, instead cutting the number. While 50,000 beds were requested, an increase, the bill would cut the total number of detention beds to 41,500, marking a decrease of 5,500 beds.

It also slightly reduces funding for enforcement and removal operations, cutting $115 million.

However, for many Democrats, these reforms don’t go far enough.

Democrats Split

Democrats are split on the issue, though many have expressed opposition to the bill.

Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), a member of the House Appropriations Committee, expressed opposition to the bill in a post on X.

“The 2026 Homeland Security funding bill that the House is voting on this week is an easy NO for me. It’s a blank check with no accountability for DHS’s outrageous abuses,” Underwood wrote.

Several other House Democrats on the Appropriations subcommittee have similarly indicated plans to oppose the bill.

However, others have indicated plans to support the bill or have otherwise said they’re undecided.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic appropriator, has said she'll back the legislation, citing the reforms.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), a moderate in a red-trending district, has also expressed his intention to support the bill.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:45

Rate-Cut Odds Tumble As Jobless Claims Hover Near 56-Year-Lows

Zero Hedge -

Rate-Cut Odds Tumble As Jobless Claims Hover Near 56-Year-Lows

Following last week's plunge back below 200k, analysts expected a small rise to 209k this week but the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remained flat at 200k. Notably, as is usual at this time of year, non-seasonally-adjusted claims spiked...

Source: Bloomberg

...basically hovering at its lowest levels since 1969...

Source: Bloomberg

New York and Georgia saw the largest drops in jobless claims while Puerto Rico saw a modest increase in claims...

Continuing jobless claims also ticked down (to 1.849 million Americans) - the lowest since November...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which fits with the ebbing of rate-cut expectations for this year...

Source: Bloomberg

...likely much to the chagrin of President Trump.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:35

10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning train WFH reads:

• Donald Trump vs. the World: “The bond market cannot be bullied, fooled, or bribed. It does not flatter or make deals. It reveals all.” (The Bulwark)

• Greenland Clash Risks Undermining America’s Place in World Economic Order: The U.S. has long been a beacon of safety when uncertainty reigns. That is changing. (Wall Street Journal) see also Canada Flexes on Global Stage: With an Eye to Its Own Survival Prime Minister Mark Carney got a standing ovation in Davos for starkly describing the end of Pax Americana. He is looking for new allies to help his country survive it. (New York Times)

• They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania: Reminds me of people quitting their jobs to become Day-Traders in the 1990s — and we know how that worked out…. (NPR)

• Can America build beautiful places again? Ugliness has more to do with the housing crisis than you think. (Vox)

• Chinese EVs Blow Past Tesla and Tariffs En Route to Global Reign: U.S., European Union and Mexico try to quash accelerating demand for China’s hottest electric vehicles. (Wall Street Journal) see also BYD’s Cheap EVs Are Suddenly Everywhere in Mexico as Tariffs Take Hold: Chinese brands find growth in EV, plug-in segment other carmakers bypassed. (Bloomberg)

• Maybe we’re all doomed. Or maybe Japanese bonds are getting cheap: Japanese government bonds have been having a monumentally awful time. The yield on 40-year JGBs on Monday sailed clean through 4 per cent for the first time. Investors in ultra-long maturity JGBs have now lost a cool fifth of their money over the past year alone. (FT Alphaville)

• Apple lost the AI race — now the real challenge starts: It’s time to turn Apple Intelligence into something people actually care about. (The Verge)

• In the AI economy, the ‘weirdness premium’ will set you apart. Lean into it, says expert on tech change economics. The word “weird” didn’t always mean strange. In Old English, descended from a mix of Germanic and Norse concepts, it meant something closer to “destiny” or “becoming” or even “fate.” Once upon a time, human beings in that culture thought that the way someone’s life would turn out was unseverable from the fundamental weirdness of being alive. (Fortune)

• What Happened to Pam Bondi? How the attorney general became a person who loves telling Trump yes (also, she has been corrupt since the GFP, so we have that going for us, which is nice) (The Atlantic) see also Lindsey Halligan leaves DOJ as judge calls her use of title ‘charade’ Judges threatening actions against people INDIVIDUALLY— not against the office —is the best way to enforce Rule of Law. (USA Today)

• How Gen Z is making millennials look cool again: Gen Z is reimagining the trends of its elders, embracing low-rise baggy and flare jeans, baby doll tops, and sweatpants with numbers. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our bonus edition of Masters in Business interview with Cory Doctorow — science fiction author, activist, journalist and blogger. We discuss the power of large companies over the Internet is “Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It.”

 


When Chaos Reigns, So Does Gold

Source: Bloomberg

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Trump Unveils His Board Of Peace In Davos: A Replacement To The UN Or A US-Led Coalition Of The Willing?

Zero Hedge -

Trump Unveils His Board Of Peace In Davos: A Replacement To The UN Or A US-Led Coalition Of The Willing?

On the second and final day of his visit on Jan. 22, U.S. President Donald Trump released the Board of Peace charter, which is part of the peace process between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza.

The White House on Jan. 16 named several members of the Trump administration, as well as international leaders, to positions within the Board of Peace, which aims to provide strategic insight, mobilize international resources, and ensure accountability during Gaza’s transition and reconstruction.

Trump will chair the board, which will be tasked with overseeing the next phase in Gaza. Dozens of countries have been invited to join.

As Emel Akan reports for The Epoch Times, members will be tasked with managing the Gaza Strip’s “governance capacity-building, regional relations, reconstruction, investment attraction, large-scale funding, and capital mobilization,” according to the White House.

During a Jan. 20 White House press conference, Trump said the Board of Peace might end up replacing the United Nations.

“I wish the United Nations could do more. I wish we didn’t need a Board of Peace,” Trump told reporters. 

“The U.N. just hasn’t been very helpful. I’m a big fan of the U.N. potential, but it has never lived up to its potential.”

Despite criticizing the U.N., Trump didn’t call for the dissolution of the international body.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair are among those tapped to serve on an executive board for the Board of Peace. Others on the executive board are private equity executive Marc Rowan, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, and U.S. deputy national security adviser Robert Gabriel.

The Board of Peace will include a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, led by Palestinian Authority official Ali Abdel Hamid Shaath.

President Donald Trump speaks during a reception for business leaders at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 21, 2026. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Nikolay Mladenov, a Bulgarian diplomat and former U.N. envoy to the Middle East, has also been named to serve as the high representative for Gaza. This role entails acting as a link between the Board of Peace and the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.

As part of the peace process, Hamas has agreed to disarm.

During his remarks to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said failure to comply would result in severe consequences, saying Hamas will “be blown away.”

“We have 59 countries that are part of that whole peace deal,” Trump said during his speech.

“And they want to come in and take out Hamas. They want to come in. They want to do whatever they can. There’s a problem with Hezbollah in Lebanon. And we'll see what happens there.”

Additionally, as Andrew Korybko details below, Putin might accept Trump’s invitation to participate in order to avoid offending him and not lose a seat at the table where members provide input on US policy towards settling various conflicts.

Kremlin spokesmen Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the US invited Putin to join the Board of Peace, which refers to the UNSC-endorsed Trump-chaired group for implementing his Gaza peace plan.

Interestingly, Gaza isn’t mentioned anywhere in its charter, thus lending credence to some observers’ assessments that Trump envisages it de facto replacing the UN upon broadening its scope with time.

That same charter also grants enormous power to the group’s Chairman, the first of which will be Trump.

He’s the only one who can invite countries to join, terminate their membership, select the Executive Board, approve decisions (without which they won’t enter into force), veto decisions at any time even after they’re already being implemented, and has full power over subsidiary entities, et al.

Just as importantly, he also chooses his successor, who automatically replaces him once he ends his duties. Trump will basically run the Board of Peace like Mar-a-Lago, which has obvious pros and cons.

On the positive side, this group might actually get things done, unlike the UN. After all, Trump’s companies have a track record of tangible accomplishments, and taking full responsibility for everything motivates him to ensure that this effort doesn’t fail otherwise it’ll stain his legacy. On the negative side, all members have to defer to Trump, which some might consider humiliating. They might still tolerate it for the sake of rebuilding Gaza, however, but then leave after three years’ time.

The last point segues into the clause about how the invitees can serve for three years free of charge but then have to leave the group unless they pay $1 billion within the first year to become permanent members.

This money will go towards rebuilding Gaza. It’s also possible that the Board of Peace amends the charter to mandate a smaller amount with Trump’s approval. In any case, becoming a permanent member legally buys influence with Trump, but it doesn’t guarantee that he’ll do what’s asked of him.

There’s also the question of what would happen if the Republicans don’t keep the presidency.

The Board of Peace, whether still run by Trump or whoever his successor might be (perhaps one of his sons), would then lose the ability to influence the president and thus just become another international group. It could still foster dialogue among its members, but that’s not the same as shaping US policy towards Gaza in accordance with Trump’s vision with potential input from others like it’s presently poised to do.

For these reasons, the Board of Peace is less a replacement to the UN and more akin to a “coalition of the willing” therein which has the political will to facilitate US-led efforts to rebuild Gaza, but this “coalition” might also broaden its focus to tackle other conflicts in the future.

It’s with this in mind that those invitees embroiled in such conflicts which could occupy the Board of Peace’s attention before the end of Trump 2.0 might buy permanent membership in order to keep this influence channel open.

The aforesaid calculation would contextualize Russia’s possible participation on the Board of Peace, especially as a permanent member, which could even be for the simple purpose of not wanting to provoke Trump by risking him being offended by Putin’s rejection of his invitation into escalating.

A supplementary motive could be that this is a political insurance policy in the scenario, however far-fetched it might seem, that the Board of Peace ultimately de facto replaces some of the UN’s functions.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 06:30

Cocoa Prices Set For Worst Monthly Drop On Record As Demand Craters

Zero Hedge -

Cocoa Prices Set For Worst Monthly Drop On Record As Demand Craters

Cocoa futures in New York tumbled to two-year lows as fresh grinding data confirmed that consumers are balking at high chocolate prices.

Contracts are now down more than 28.5% on the month, and if the decline holds through the end of next week, January would register the largest monthly percentage drop on record, with Bloomberg data going back to 1970.

The great cocoa panic of 2023-24, which sent prices from $2,190 a ton to as high as $13,000 a ton by December 2024, has now retraced nearly the entire bull move to the 76.4% Fibonacci level. This latest downward pressure comes as new grinding data in Europe, cited by Bloomberg, shows clear demand deterioration:

  • Demand is deteriorating: European cocoa grindings fell to the lowest quarterly level since 2013, Asia also declined, while North America was roughly flat.

  • Reduced grindings have hit processors hard: Barry Callebaut AG reported a 22% drop in cocoa division volumes and nearly 10% lower overall sales volumes.

Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense provided clients with more color on Barry Callebaut's earnings, which showed negative market demand for chocolate:

Barry Callebaut – Q1 volumes in line (-9.9%) with a better outcome in Gourmet (-3.6% vs -5.5%) and Food Manufacturers (-7.4% vs -8.0%) offset by worse volumes in Cocoa Products (-22% vs -16.5%). The miss at the latter was impacted by negative market demand notably in AMEA and the prioritisation of volume towards higher return segments. Pricing was +19% YoY (vs +40% last quarter) so sequentially improving and now passed its peak. They say that global chocolate volumes were -6.8%. No change to FY26 outlook but they note lower bean prices are encouraging for chocolate market stabilisation. With this release, a new CEO has been announced which is a bit of a surprise (and Mr Feld is leaving almost immediately). However, the newly appointed Mr Schumacher is former CEO of Unilever and well-liked by investors. On the call, the Chairman suggested there will be no major change in strategy or need for reinvestment under new management. Note that BC also said it is committed to its integrated business model which should pour cold water on speculation around a split.

Barry Callebaut CFO Peter Vanneste told investors on an earnings call, "We believe consumers will adapt and adjust to these new price levels and ultimately continue to buy chocolate given the high engagement of the category."

We told readers in December that sliding cocoa prices would produce "Tailwinds" for the badly beaten-down Hershey stock ...

Read the note here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 05:45

UK Data Center Planning Hits Record High Amid Scramble For AI Infrastructure

Zero Hedge -

UK Data Center Planning Hits Record High Amid Scramble For AI Infrastructure

Via City AM,

  • Data centre planning applications in England and Wales jumped 63% in 2025, driven largely by AI-related demand and investor enthusiasm.

  • Developers are increasingly targeting unconventional sites, from abandoned hotels to former coal mines and landfills, to secure planning approval.

  • Power availability and grid constraints are likely to limit how many approved projects are ultimately built, encouraging “bring your own power” models.

Data centre planning applications hit an all-time high in the UK in 2025, City AM can reveal, as investors rushed to gain a foothold in the burgeoning AI market.

More than 60 separate planning applications for the construction of new data centres were filed in England and Wales over the course of the year, according to a City AM analysis of more than 300 local authority planning databases, representing an increase of 63 per cent compared to 2024.

The analysis excluded extensions to existing data centre sites, revisions to past applications  and applications for other developments which included a data centre as part of the plans, meaning the true figure for the number of data centres seeking planning approval is likely to be significantly higher.

The surge in applications lays bare the scale of the demand for compute by the nascent AI industry, with large language models requiring more and more power to operate, and property businesses racing to re-invent themselves as data centre developers to cash in on investor appetite.

Dame Dawn Childs, chief executive of Pure Data Centres, told City AM: “With this AI bubble that everyone’s talking about…because of the increased valuations for powered land, everyone’s trying to get a piece of the pie, and that creates a bunch of fizziness.

“We’re seeing lots of people who are sending out on a daily basis: ‘we’ve got this significant plot of land with all of these megawatts of power in the middle of nowhere, it’ll be an AI gigafactory, buy it for a gazillion pounds’ – they’re absolutely trying to get increased valuations for scrappy industrial land.”

The lion’s share of the demand came from AI applications by Magnificent 7 firms, Childs said, but added that even without AI, there would likely have been a significant increase in applications due to increased cloud computing adoption across the British economy.

The analysis found that around half of the planning applications were situated in London and the South East, regions known as a European hotspot for data centres, though there were also signs of a growing number of data centres being constructed across different parts of the UK. Seven different applications were submitted in Wales during the year, along with another seven in the East Midlands, four in the North West and four in Yorkshire.

The analysis also found property firms becoming more and more creative over the sites chosen to redevelop into data centres in a scramble to gain planning approval. In Watford, developers picked the site of an abandoned Mercure hotel to build a data centre, while in Hackney, the old Truman brewery has been earmarked for conversion. In Nottinghamshire, a shuttered coal mine could be turned into a data centre, while in Chesterfield, a former landfill site could find a new lease of life churning out AI content.

These more ambitious developments were being led by technological advances by data centre hyperscalers, Childs said.

“Previously they needed their cloud regions to be within a certain geography, driven by the cost of power, the availability of power and the price of land,” Childs said.

“They’ve extended that margin now and for some of them they’ve actually doubled the circumference within which they’d be happy to have a child data centre site linked back to their central hub in a cloud region.”

The surge in data centre planning applications is also thought to have been propelled by the launch of the government’s AI Opportunities Action Plan just under a year ago, in which it called for the creation of ‘AI Growth Zones’ – areas designed to build AI infrastructure and attract outside investment and expertise. To date more than 200 submissions for AI Growth Zones have been made by local authorities across the UK.

Planning and power challenges

But the total number of AI data centres ultimately built is likely to be substantially lower than the number of planning applications filed, amid competition for investment and a scarcity of power supplies.

Google’s first UK owned and operated data centre, which opened last year, suffered a series of setbacks before it was ultimately completed.

When the first planning application for the site was submitted in 2018, Thames Water warned it had “identified an inability of the existing water network infrastructure to accommodate the needs of this development proposal”, while a utilities report found the local power supply was inadequate and a new 6km-long cable would have to be dug underground (including drilling under the M25) to connect up to a second National Grid substation.

As a result of power constraints, the “bring your own power” model is also being seen more and more across Europe, in which data centre developers partner with energy specialists to ensure power demands can be met, Childs said.

“Investors are either cautious and savvy and really understand the market… or they are new entrants who are just throwing their hat in the ring to jump on the bandwagon.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 05:00

US Lawmakers Push $2.5B Plan To Break China’s Grip On Critical Minerals

Zero Hedge -

US Lawmakers Push $2.5B Plan To Break China’s Grip On Critical Minerals

A bipartisan group of lawmakers has proposed creating a new $2.5 billion agency to accelerate U.S. production of rare earths and other critical minerals, according to AP and MSN. 

The effort comes as the Trump administration has already taken aggressive steps to weaken China’s control over materials vital to high-tech products, electric vehicles, and advanced weapons systems.

While it remains unclear how the legislation would align with White House policy, pressure is growing to cut U.S. dependence on China after Beijing used its dominance in the critical minerals market during the trade war. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed last October to a one-year truce under which China would continue exports while the U.S. eased some technology restrictions.

The Pentagon has spent nearly $5 billion over the past year to secure access to these materials, highlighting how reliant the U.S. remains on China, which processes more than 90% of the world’s critical minerals. To counter that dominance, Washington has begun taking equity stakes in mining companies and, in some cases, guaranteeing prices—an approach more commonly associated with China’s industrial policy.

The Senate bill, introduced by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Todd Young of Indiana, would establish an independent agency to build mineral stockpiles, stabilize prices, and encourage production in the U.S. and allied countries to support both national defense and the broader economy.

Shaheen called the legislation “a historic investment” to strengthen the U.S. economy against China’s leverage, while Young said the proposal is “a much-needed, aggressive step to protect our national and economic security.” Rep. Rob Wittman of Virginia introduced a companion bill in the House.

The AP report says that the urgency escalated after China imposed export restrictions last spring in response to U.S. tariffs, forcing Washington to seek a truce. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon has recently “deployed over $4.5 billion in capital commitments” to close deals that will “help free the United States from market manipulation.”

Those efforts include investments in domestic alumina, gallium, and rare earth production, as well as partnerships to strengthen the supply chain for rare earth magnets. Trump reinforced the strategy this week, declaring the U.S. is “too reliant” on foreign critical minerals and ordering negotiations for stronger supply terms.

“Reshoring manufacturing that’s critical to our national and economic security is a top priority for the Trump administration,” a White House spokesperson said.

Some analysts view the strategy as a shift toward state-backed industrial policy. “Despite the dangers of political interference, the strategic logic is compelling,” wrote Elly Rostoum, adding that it could be “a prudent way for the U.S. to ensure strategic autonomy and industrial sovereignty.”

Industry leaders have largely welcomed the approach. “He is playing three-dimensional chess on critical minerals like no previous president has done. It's about time too, given the military and strategic vulnerability we face,” said Jim Sims of NioCorp.

Alongside domestic investment, the administration is also working with allies, including major mining agreements with Australia and coordinated discussions among G7 finance ministers on supply chain resilience.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 04:15

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