Individual Economists

"Extraordinary Times": Ted Cruz Predicts Iran, Venezuela, & Cuba Could All Fall Within Six Months

Zero Hedge -

"Extraordinary Times": Ted Cruz Predicts Iran, Venezuela, & Cuba Could All Fall Within Six Months

The world may be approaching a turning point not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At least, that’s what Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) predicts. Appearing on Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, Cruz said the globe is on the brink of a historic realignment, predicting that three long-standing anti-American regimes could collapse in a matter of months—a shift with worldwide implications. 

And it could arrive far sooner than many expect.

“We are living in extraordinary times,” Cruz said, arguing that the pace of global change “exceeds anything we have seen in decades.”

According to Cruz, the unrest now gripping Iran could soon extend far beyond its borders.

“There is a very real possibility that in the next six months the regimes in Iran, in Venezuela, and Cuba will all fall,” he said. 

Cruz went further, suggesting those nations could soon choose a dramatically different path.

“There is a real possibility that Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba will all democratically elect new leaders.”

He framed the moment as one with sweeping consequences for the United States and the world.

“Instead of fomenting violence, fomenting attacks on America, instead of waging war on America, there is a real chance in the next six months that the people of those three countries will elect leaders who embrace freedom and free enterprise and who want to stand with America,” he said.

If that happens, Cruz added, “it is difficult to think of anything more consequential,” comparing the potential shift to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War.

The Texas senator laid much of the blame for global instability squarely on Tehran, calling Iran “the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.”

He pointed to its financial backing of terror groups, saying, “They have paid for and funded… 90 percent of the funding of Hamas comes from Iran, 90 percent of the funding for Hezbollah comes from Iran.” Cruz also noted that Iran has sent terrorists abroad, “including sending terrorists to, among other places, Venezuela, and targeting Americans.”

He also credited President Trump for his support for the people of Iran and highlighted what he called a decisive escalation from the White House in recent days.

“In the last two days, a really important step occurred where President Trump came out unequivocally and said, ‘It is time for new leadership in Iran,’” Cruz said. He continued, quoting the president’s words directly: “It is time for the Ayatollah Khomeini, his religious dictatorship to end.” Cruz called that statement “massively important.”

When Bartiromo pressed him on whether the United States should take direct action, Cruz argued that Washington should pursue maximum pressure with the explicit goal of toppling the Iranian regime. He said the regime openly defines itself by hatred of the United States, pointing to the Ayatollah’s routine participation in “Death to America” chants and to the fact that Iran even commemorates the 1979 U.S. embassy takeover with an annual “Death to America Day.”

Cruz also backed President Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying the president concluded the risk of allowing a theocratic dictatorship to obtain nuclear weapons was intolerable. In Cruz’s view, the strike represented the most consequential foreign policy move of Trump’s second term. He contrasted that approach with the Obama administration’s response to Iran’s 2009 Green Revolution, when widespread protests were met with American restraint. Cruz said the United States squandered that moment by refusing to stand firmly with the Iranian people. This time, he argued, Trump has sent a clear message to Tehran that violently suppressing protesters will carry serious consequences.

Reagan won the Cold War by refusing to treat communist dictators as moral equals worthy of endless dialogue. Trump applies that same principle to Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba—regimes that have survived for decades solely because the establishment lacked the courage to finish them off. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 18:50

Democrats Are Trying To Weaponize The 25th Amendment Again, And It Won't Work

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Are Trying To Weaponize The 25th Amendment Again, And It Won't Work

After spending nearly four years pretending that Joe Biden was fit for office, congressional Democrats are now calling for President Trump to be removed from office under the 25th Amendment after he linked his pursuit of Greenland to being snubbed for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

In that text, sent Sunday, Trump told the Norwegian leader he no longer felt obligated to "think purely of Peace" after his country decided not to award him the prize for having stopped or prevented at least eight wars.

Removing Trump under the 25th Amendment would require Vice President Vance and a majority of Cabinet members to declare to Congress that the president cannot discharge his duties. Congress would then have 21 days to ratify the decision, but two-thirds majorities in both the Senate and House would be needed to affirm removal. The mechanics make clear why this is political theater rather than serious governance. Vance and Trump's Cabinet are not going to declare him unfit over a text message. 

But the real problem is that it’s impossible to take any of these Democrats seriously on this issue. Democrats have played this card repeatedly for years, turning what should be a serious constitutional matter into a tired old political stunt. 

Once Trump took office in 2017, Democrats and their media allies pushed baseless narratives about cognitive decline. They called for mental assessments. They amplified armchair diagnoses from partisan psychiatrists. They did all this despite zero evidence of actual impairment. The noise grew so loud that Trump requested a cognitive assessment from his physician a year into his presidency. He aced it, but his critics were not satisfied.

Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe claimed that Justice Department officials briefly discussed invoking the 25th Amendment mere months into his first term after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey in May 2017. 

The media routinely gave airtime to mental health professionals willing to claim Trump was certifiably unfit. Democrats even got 350 health professionals to sign a petition declaring his mental health was deteriorating. 

Weeks before the 2020 election, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi publicly questioned President Trump’s fitness to serve and unveiled legislation to establish a commission that would allow Congress to intervene under the 25th Amendment and strip the president of executive authority—citing a “strange tweet” from Trump as justification. 

While questioning Trump’s mental fitness was a constant theme during his first term, Democrats routinely ignored or denied Joe Biden’s cognitive decline during his presidency until Biden was forced to drop out of the 2024 presidential race after a humiliating debate performance against Trump that June. Up until that point, the media was largely defending Joe Biden from accusations of cognitive impairment.

In March 2024, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough insisted that Joe Biden was at the top of his game.

“I've said it for years now: he's cogent,” he insisted. “But I undersold him when I said he was cogent. He's far beyond cogent. In fact, I think he's better than he's ever been intellectually, analytically. Because he’s been around for 50 years.”

He added, “Start your tape right now, because I'm about to tell you the truth. And eff you if you can't handle the truth. This version of Biden, intellectually, analytically, is the best Biden ever. Not a close second. And I've known him for years. The Brzezinskis have known him for 50 years. If it weren't the truth, I wouldn't say it.”

Many elected Democrats also publicly defended Joe Biden during his presidency, only to admit after the election that he was clearly impaired.

Democrats spent years crying wolf about Trump's mental state. They fabricated crises where none existed. Then they ignored the actual cognitive decline of their own president out of political necessity. 

Democrats have weaponized the 25th Amendment just like they’ve weaponized impeachment. Now they expect the public to take seriously another claim that Trump is unfit for office?

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 18:05

Maybe It's Time For Conservative Patriots To Rally In Minneapolis

Zero Hedge -

Maybe It's Time For Conservative Patriots To Rally In Minneapolis

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

For years we knew it was coming: Civil War 2.0. It’s not as if the establishment has been subtle about their intentions to erase conservatives and liberty minded people from the American epoch. I remember during the Obama years, the narrative was repeated daily that conservatives are a “backwards remnant” of the old America that needs to adapt to the times or fade into obscurity.

The reasoning was that, slowly but surely, the US was becoming “more diverse” and therefore the progressive left was going to be the dominant political force for generations to come (because they think they own all minorities).

In other words, multiculturalism was the new ideological standard.

In order for conservatives to survive, we would have to become more like leftists, embrace DEI, and abandon the principles of western civilization that originally made America great.

But then, something happened that leftists and the establishment elites apparently did not expect; a groundswell of patriotism, a renewed reverence for the ideals of meritocracy and reason, a rising movement of moral clarity. The progressives and globalists did not understand that the conservative populism they categorized as “fringe” 10 years earlier was becoming a mainstay of digital discourse.

They thought they had won. They thought they had us after Obama, so much so that they ran Hillary Clinton for president with the assumption that she could not lose. Then, they thought they had us during the pandemic, but they failed to secure a lasting medical tyranny. They thought they had us during the Biden regime by flooding the country will third world migrants.

Now, they think they have us with their NGO paid army of activists, agitators and provocateurs. They think they have use with the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Everything they do is built on the assumption that we will do nothing.

They think this because it is exceedingly rare for conservatives to step outside the traditional bounds of law and order. We have a tendency to wait for people in authority to fix our problems. We have a tendency to rely on civil discourse to ease tensions and find common ground. And, we have a tendency to wait for elections in the hope that the other side will simply accept our victory and recognize that most of the country is against them.

This is clearly not going to happen.

First, because leftists always double down. They are ideological zealots who thirst for power and they will do anything to achieve it. Morals and logic hold no value for them. They will ignore the results of the elections and they will ignore the will of the people because they think THEY know better than everyone else.

Second, globalist NGOs continue to fund and train these activists in greater and greater numbers. I have heard it argued that we need to “stop calling the activists paid protesters” because this diminishes the fact that they are crazed ideologues and true believers. I disagree.

Yes, they are lunatics. Yes, they are true believers. But they would not be able to sustain their mob actions without the steady aid of NGOs feeding them cash, legal help and training. These people are taking their orders from someone; they are not an organic movement.

In past articles I have tried to plead with conservatives to recognize that these activists are NOT sincere fellow citizens engaging in legitimate protest. They are a mercenary army paid to go to war. I’ll say it once again: WE ARE AT WAR. We need to start acting like it.

The organization of conservative movements is perhaps one of the most difficult tasks on the planet. And to be clear, I’ve tried it on a small scale in the past and it’s not easy to get conservatives to commit. That said, I’m not a joiner either and if I do something I usually prefer to do it alone. I suspect most conservatives are the same and I understand the reasons why getting patriots to show up en masse is like herding cats.

Conservatives have lives, we have families (families we actually care about), we have real jobs and most of us don’t see civil protest as a “career”. We also have a tendency to distrust anyone trying too hard to organize. We are, for lack of a better word, paranoid.

Then there’s the people I would call “crabs in a bucket”. The fake conservatives, the fraud influencers, the big talkers who have found their niche grifting in the name of patriotism. But when the moment comes that action and risk are required, they try to pull everyone back down into the bucket of apathy.

They cry that “this is what the leftists want.” They spread rumors of “false flags” to convince people not to get off their couches and walk out the door. What if this is “just another J6”, they argue every time the idea of organization arises. They’ll say our job as civilians is to vote, and then wait for the authorities to handle it.

To be sure, there have been examples in the past of patriots being misled, and I’m certainly a believer in informed caution, but these guys can’t seem to find a conflict they won’t run away from. At this stage all I see are people trying to mislead us into doing nothing while liberty speakers are assassinated, counter protesters are physically attacked, and common sense policies are sabotaged by a handful of corrupt politicians, judges and militant activists.

When there are no consequences for bad behavior, bad behavior will escalate into violence and chaos. It’s important to understand that the political left is made up largely of people who are emotionally stunted. They are toddlers trapped in adult bodies. And, like spoiled children, they act the way they do because they have never been spanked.

Then there’s the people behind the curtain. The NGOs who use obscure and often anonymous online recruitment programs to find and train the useful idiots. Most of their offices are safely nestled in blue havens like New York City or Washington D.C. They are protected by corporate personhood laws and can essentially do whatever they please while enjoying limited liability and the same civil rights as individual citizens.

They WANT Trump to deploy troops to places like Minneapolis. They want their useful idiot activists to get their asses kicked by federal agents on camera. They want some of these people to die because then they can say: “See, we told you Trump is a fascist! Rise up against your oppressor!” They want a communist-style revolution motivated by the fantasy that leftists are “freedom fighters” against a government tyranny that does not represent the American public.

The Trump Administration is legally restricted in what it can do when it comes to investigating or dissolving NGOs. That’s why these institutions are so useful to leftists and globalists.

Our only recourse, in my opinion, is for patriots to organize and act to remove the threat these groups present. Trump has to adhere to the boundaries of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights…but we don’t. The constitution restricts government enforcement, it doesn’t restrict us. The political left ignores our rights, so why should we respect theirs?

The activist mobs in Minneapolis have reverted to pure terrorism. They are physically beating counter-protesters for simply showing up. It’s only a matter of time before they kill someone. Meanwhile, local law enforcement is doing nothing because they have been told by Democrats to do nothing.

Leftists are setting up checkpoints and harassing residents. They are invading peaceful churches with the intent to cause fear among local Christians. They attack ICE agents at every opportunity; men who are merely carrying out the policies WE voted for in 2024.

The political left is trying to subvert the mandate of American voters. They refuse to accept that they lost and they are executing a guerrilla war instead. It’s time for conservatives to step up and do something about it; not just wait for Trump to repair the damage. Maybe Trump deploys troops to Minneapolis, and maybe the activists disperse (maybe not), but they will inevitably pop up elsewhere and we need to be ready.

Conservative groups can set up their own funding structures. We can help to pay expenses for patriots traveling to stop these NGO activists from wreaking havoc. We can train people. We can field an army just as easily as the political left (if not more so).

I’m not much of an organizer, and I certainly don’t want to handle other people’s money. But I believe there are many conservatives out there with far bigger platforms than I have who could take on this role (just watch out for potential grifters, you don’t want a BLM situation where some guy buys three mansions with your donations). The bottom line is, we can do what leftists do and do it better. Anyone who wants to talk more about this can contact me at: brandon@alt-market.com

What I pledge is that I will be there, at the front of the line, to face off against the leftist mob. I will drive from Montana to Minnesota (or anywhere else) and will happily meet with caravans of patriots on the way. With my self defense background I can help train counter-protesters to fight back if needed. With my extensive radio experience I can help to set up secure communications. I will do whatever I’m able.  If we do this, let’s get prepared and let’s do it right.

I think there are millions of conservatives out there who feel the same way I do. We are fed up. Our capacity for diplomacy has been exhausted.

Very few people want to say it out loud and maybe they’re afraid to say it, but we’re all thinking it. Now is the time to act. Wherever the leftist mob shows up to create chaos, we should show up and drive them out of the city. This is the risk we must take if we ever want peace in our country again.

Or, we can continue sitting on our laptops and phones waiting for the problem to fix itself while the activist mob spreads across the entire country, fully emboldened by our lack of resolve.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 17:45

Lululemon Yanks Leggings Over "See-Through" Concerns When Bending Over

Zero Hedge -

Lululemon Yanks Leggings Over "See-Through" Concerns When Bending Over

Lululemon Athletica yanked its new Get Low training apparel line from its North America e-commerce website just days after launch, following customer complaints that the leggings were see-through.

"The Get Low line has officially been pulled. The leggings are absolutely see-through when you squat or bend over (in every colorway). You can bring them into any store and trade them for a different legging even if they have been worn, FYI. They didn't pull them from stores, so I don't know what Lululemon is thinking. The tops are great, in my opinion," a viral post on the r/lululemon subreddit stated two days ago.

A spokesperson for Lululemon Athletica told Bloomberg that the entire "collection remains available in our stores in North America, but we have temporarily paused sales online in the market to better understand some initial guest feedback and support with product education."

"We expect to bring the collection back to our North America e-commerce channels soon, and the collection continues to be available in other markets," Lululemon said.

JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss told clients that the Get Low training apparel was removed from the company's website just three days after its debut. He said complaints on social media were mostly centered on the tights, with customers describing them as "not squat proof."

Shares of LULU were down more than 5% in late afternoon trading on Tuesday. This is not Lululemon's first product debut fumble. In 2013, the company was forced to recall large amounts of its black yoga pants after customers complained that the leggings were see-through.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 17:25

The Reckoning On Immigration Is Here

Zero Hedge -

The Reckoning On Immigration Is Here

Authored by Alex Berenson via Unreported Truths,

The easy part is over.

Americans wanted the borders closed.

For decades, the legacy media and politicians in both parties ignored that wish, claiming the United States had to accept and support an endless flood of illegal migrants. The disconnect between average people and elite opinion was so obvious that academics wrote papers about it.

President Trump broke with the elite consensus from the first day of his 2016 presidential campaign, when he announced “I will build a great, great wall on our southern border.” No issue proved more politically potent for him.

In his second term, Trump has kept his promise. The wall may not be literally complete, but it might as well be. Customs and Border Patrol reports monthly “encounters” with illegal migrants on the southern border have fallen about 95 percent from the Biden Administration average, and 97 percent from their 2023 peak.

But closing the border to new arrivals does not undo the fact that tens of millions of people are living in the United States illegally, or with quasi-legal “asylum” or “temporary protected” status the Trump Administration is now seeking to revoke.

Just how many people are inside the United States illegally? We do not really know. In 2024, the Department of Homeland Security put the figure at roughly 11 million in 2022 — and said the number had not changed for almost 20 years.

That estimate is nonsensical, given that close to 10 million people arrived in the first three years of the Biden Administration alone.

In 2018, in a paper that should have received more attention than it did, three researchers from Yale and MIT estimated about 22 million people — double the official figure — were living illegally in the United States.

As the paper explained, the consensus 11 million figure comes from a census question that “requires accurate responses from survey respondents when asked where they were born, and whether they are American citizens.” In other words, the survey required illegal immigrants to tell on themselves — to government officials. (It’s a surprise the figure was not zero.)

The researchers used a different method, netting out changes in immigration over time by estimating the number of migrants entering, leaving, and dying. To be clear, this was an exercise in modeling, with all the uncertainty that implies. But even a modeled figure is better than a clearly nonsensical one.

Their best estimate was that the number of illegal migrants rose from under 5 million in 1990 to about 22 million before the 2008 financial crisis, then stayed roughly flat for the next decade. This growth makes intuitive sense. The American economy was very strong in the 1990s, and making money is the primary reason people uproot their lives and cross borders.

—

(The 2018 Yale estimate of illegal immigrants in the United States. Note the black line hovering just over 20 million.)

The prolonged recession and slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis kept a lid on illegal migration for the next several years.

Then three factors combined to drive up migration.

Economic growth accelerated in President Trump’s first term.

Leaders in the Democratic Party began to speak out aggressively against any enforcement of border laws.

And migrants realized they could use asylum claims to gain entry into the United States and become quickly eligible for Medicaid and other public benefits programs, which previously had not been available to them. The number of people claiming asylum rose from 44,000 in 2011 to 209,000 in 2017, according to a State Department report to Congress.

When the Biden Administration took over in 2021, these trends exploded.

Covid lockdowns and plunging tourism devastated Latin American economies, making the United States more attractive. The official 2020 Democratic Party platform essentially called for an end to border enforcement. And requests for asylum surged even further, with almost 480,000 people asking for asylum in 2023 — even as the Biden Administration created other new pathways to admission, like the “Humanitarian Parole Program.”

—

Millions more people simply came across the border without even the fig leaf of an asylum request or humanitarian parole. In 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 65 percent of all the migrants in the post-2020 surge — roughly five to six million people — fell in that category.

At an minimum, the United States now probably has close to 20 million people inside its borders who have no legal right to be here under any circumstance. The number may well be closer to 30 million, especially as the Trump Administration strips away the Biden Administration’s expansion of asylum and “humanitarian parole.”

Many of those people are hardworking migrants whose only crime is their immigration status. Others have depended on public assistance since the day they arrived on American soil and have no plans to or realistic hope of getting off it. And some — a small but still real percentage — are criminals.

But they are all present illegally and thus face the risk of deportation. Until now, that risk had been largely theoretical. The United States had operated under a fragile don’t-ask-don’t-tell-style consensus on deportation, which was more or less as follows:

If you can get across the border and you work and do not commit crimes, you will not face a serious risk of immigration enforcement or deportation. And if you have children here, they will be American citizens, under birthright citizenship.

To be clear, the left — not the right — destabilized this bargain.

Opening taxpayer-financed programs to millions of asylees, refugees, and other immigrants with quasi-legal status infuriated many native-born Americans. In combination with the sheer number of new arrivals, the welfare expansion understandably led to an angry backlash.

Now the Trump Administration has made clear that in its view closing the border was the first step, not the last, in immigration enforcement, and that the United States should view the presence of tens of millions of illegal migrants as a mass violation of its laws and sovereignty, even if they are committing no other crimes.

We are about to find out whether most Americans agree.

The easy part — closing the borders — is over.

The hard part — deciding what to do about the people who are already here — comes now.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 17:05

Leftists Call For Political Purge Of MAGA If They Return To Power

Zero Hedge -

Leftists Call For Political Purge Of MAGA If They Return To Power

You might have thought it wasn't possible, but leftist activist rhetoric has become even more unhinged than usual in the past month as ICE agents try to do their lawful jobs in Democrat controlled sanctuary cities like Minneapolis. 

During the Obama Administration, ICE carried out millions of deportations of illegal aliens without a peep from progressives.  Suddenly, under Trump these same operations are now being called "fascism" and grounds for insurgency.  The reason these arrests have led to more violence today is not because of ICE, it is because NGO paid and trained activists are getting in the way.

First, impeding law enforcement officials, blocking roads, sabotaging vehicles and physically assaulting agents is not a legal form of protest. 

Second, the American public voted for mass deportations to happen; not just for migrants who break the law after they sneak into the US, but for all migrants who sneak into the US.  Democrats and a radical minority of activists are therefore attempting to disrupt the democratic process and prevent the Trump Administration from carrying out the will of the people.

But it doesn't stop there. 

A narrative is building among Democrat politicians and NGO activists alike which is essentially calling for a political purge of conservatives if progressive leaders return to government power in the next few years.  Multiple blue city mayors, governors and police administrators have already threatened to "arrest ICE agents" for carrying out deportations within sanctuary city jurisdictions. 

Jacob Frey and Tim Walz made thinly veiled threats suggesting that local police could intervene.  Walz called on residents of Minneapolis to film all ICE agents so that they could be "prosecuted later."       

These speeches echo sentiments of leftists on social media calling for a Stasi-like purge if Democrats get back control of Congress and the White House.  They assert that ICE agents can be identified and later imprisoned for enforcing basic immigration laws, even if their deportation arrests were legal and constitutional at the time.

The Trump Administration and ICE have responded, asserting that such actions would constitute an insurrection.  In other words, blue cities would be at war with the federal government.  

The insanity of leftists, however, is not to be taken lightly.  Activist influencers want Trump and anyone associated with him thrown in the gulag.  They are even suggesting that they can drag Trump and his allies before a tribunal and Democrats will "find the crimes" they are guilty of.  As Lavrentiy Beria, head of Stalin's secret police in the Soviet Union allegedly stated:

"Show me the man, and I'll show you the crime..."

Ex-CNN host Jim Acosta and Democrat podcaster Jennifer Welch recently agreed that the left needs to take revenge on President Donald Trump.  Not just by winning elections, but by putting him in prison for winning his election.

Elon Musk took to X and posted a warning to conservatives in response to the clip, stating: "They mean it." 

This is not a new tactic for Democrats.  They attempted to jail Trump a number of times on fabricated charges in order to prevent him from running for office in 2024.  They imprisoned around 1270 J6 protesters for an insurrection that never happened in order to make an example.  They went after Trump's political allies with arrests and lawsuits. They tried to bury Musk with investigations and red tape.  All of this was designed to undermine any chance of conservatives regaining a presence in government.  

Without a doubt, if Democrats somehow steal the kind of power they once had during the Biden Administration, they will take action to ensure no one is able to take it from them again.  Or, they will start a civil war in the process.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 16:45

Netflix Craters On Disappointing Guidance, Stock Buyback Pause

Zero Hedge -

Netflix Craters On Disappointing Guidance, Stock Buyback Pause

It was already an ugly quarter for NFLX shareholders who have been caught in a painful takeover battle for Warner Bros Discovery which has hammered the stock. And it only got uglier moments ago when Netflix reported Q4 earnings which came in solid, along with record subscribers for 2025, but it was the company's disappointing guidance due to higher program spending, together with the halt of stock buybacks (to fund the pending WBD deal) that slammed the stock to levels last seen during the Liberation day panic. 

Here is what NFLX reported for Q4 results: 

  • EPS 56c vs. 43c y/y, beating estimates of 55c
     
  • Revenue $12.05 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimates $11.97 billion
    • US & Canada revenue $5.34 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimates $5.26 billion
    • EMEA revenue $3.87 billion, +18% y/y, beating estimate $3.84 billion
    • Latin America revenue $1.42 billion, +15% y/y, matching estimate $1.42 billion
    • APAC revenue $1.42 billion, +17% y/y, missing estimate $1.44 billion
       
  • Operating income $2.96 billion, +30% y/y, beating estimate of $2.89 billion
     
  • Operating margin 24.5% vs. 22.2% y/y, beating estimate of 24.2%
  • Cash flow from operations $2.11 billion, +37% y/y, beating estimate of $1.68 billion
  • Free cash flow $1.87 billion, +36% y/y, beating estimates $1.46 billion

So far so good, because absent a small miss on APAC revenue, the quarter was generally in line (as a reminder, Netflix stopped providing regular updates on its subscriber total, directing investors to focus on more traditional financial metrics).

Some more details on Q4 results:

Q4 revenue grew 18% year over year (+17% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), driven primarily by membership growth, higher pricing, and increased ad revenue. Despite unfavorable F/X movements during the quarter, revenue was 1% above our guidance due to stronger-than-forecasted membership growth and ad sales. 

Operating income in Q4 was $3.0B, up 30% year over year, and operating margin expanded two percentage points year over year to 25% - both slightly ahead of our forecast due primarily to the revenue upside.

Diluted EPS amounted to $0.56 vs $0.43 in Q4’24 (+31% year over year), slightly above our forecast (adjusted for our 10-for-1 stock split). Net income included ~$60M of costs (booked in interest expense) related to our recent Warner Bros.-related bridge loan and associated bridge reduction financings (which was not included in our guidance). 

With our strong Q4 results, we met or exceeded all of our full year 2025 financial objectives. We grew revenue 16% to $45B (+17% on a F/X neutral basis) and we increased our operating margin to 29.5% for the year, up from 26.7% in 2024. We also made great progress growing advertising revenue. In 2025, which was only our third year selling advertising, ad revenue grew by more than 2.5x vs. 2024 to over $1.5 billion. 

The streaming leader said it plans to increase spending on films and TV shows by 10% in 2026 while forging ahead with plans to buy the studio and streaming business of Warner Bros., a deal that would unite two of the world’s largest entertainment companies. Netflix spent about $18 billion on programming last year, with subscribers growing almost 8% to top 325 million.

The strong subscriber metrics and results were to be expected in a quarter that had a particularly strong programming lineup to close the year, including the final episodes of Stranger Things, a documentary series about hip-hop mogul Sean Combs and a new Frankenstein film.

But while Q4 was solid, it was the company's forecast that was the first alert, with the company reporting revenue, operating income and margins all of which came below estimates.

  • Sees EPS 76c, missing estimates of 82c.
  • Sees revenue $12.16 billion, missing estimates of $12.17 billion
  • Sees operating income $3.91 billion, missing estimates of $4.18 billion
  • Sees operating margin 32.1%, missing estimates of 34.4%

Extending the forecast to the full year, there was more disappointment, because while revenue came in just barely higher than expected, both margin and free cash flow came in well below the median consensus.

  • Sees revenue $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, estimate $50.96 billion 
  • Sees operating margin 31.5%, estimate 32.4%
  • Sees free cash flow about $11 billion, estimate $11.93 billion

Some more details on the forecast from the investor letter, which suggests that the takeover of WB Discovery will weigh on the bottom line for some time, including an additional  $275 million  in acquisition-related expenses, on top of the $60 million already spent. 

For 2026, based on F/X rates as of 1/1/2026, we forecast revenue of $50.7B-$51.7B. This represents 12%-14% year over year growth (or 11%-13% F/X neutral growth), driven by increases in membership and pricing plus a projected rough doubling of ad revenue in 2026 vs. 2025. 

We’re targeting a 2026 operating margin of 31.5% (based on 1/1/26 F/X rates), up from 29.5% in 2025, which includes approximately $275M of acquisition-related expenses. Our margin forecast also reflects content amortization growth of ~10% in 2026, with higher growth in the first half than the second half due to the timing of title launches.

As a result, we expect higher operating income growth in the second half of 2026 than in the first half. We still see plenty of room to increase our margins and our intent is to grow our operating margin each year, although the magnitude of margin expansion will vary year-to-year as we balance reinvesting in our business with improving profitability.  

Summarizing the highlights from the guidance, the company sees higher operating income growth in H2 2026 vs H1; sees "plenty of room" to increase margin; the company intends to grow operating margin each year. NFLX sees about doubling of ad revenue in 2026 vs 2025.

Netflix is buying Warner Bros. to obtain one of the strongest film and TV libraries in the world, content it can mine for new material and help the company expand newer businesses like consumer products, experiences and video games. Last year’s programming budget delivered a marginal increase in viewership for Netflix, with overall engagement growing about 2% in the second half.

Yet even as growth in new users and viewing has slowed, Netflix has sustained double-digit sales growth by raising prices and introducing advertising. The company predicts ad sales will double this year from $1.5 billion in 2025.

And while investors were not delighted with some of the aspects,, the big hit to the stock after hours was news that Netflix would pause share buybacks to accumulate cash to help fund pending Warner Bros. acquisition.

This, together with the poor guidance, sent the stock tumbling 5%, and back to the lowest level since the April Liberation day. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 16:32

By The Numbers... Trump's (Second) First Year In 10 Charts

Zero Hedge -

By The Numbers... Trump's (Second) First Year In 10 Charts

Authored by Emel Akan and Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Trump’s policies have influenced everything from economic growth and stock market performance to gas prices and mortgage rates.

Stock Market Performance

Since President Trump took office in January 2025, stock indexes have reached new highs.

The S&P 500 Index rose nearly 16 percent through Jan. 14, compared to a 24 percent increase over the same period in Trump’s first term. In the past 12 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 13 percent and the Nasdaq gained 20 percent.

Economic Growth

After a 0.6 percent contraction in the first quarter, U.S. economic growth accelerated and exceeded economists’ expectations in 2025, avoiding a feared recession. GDP grew by 3.8 percent in Q2 and 4.3 percent in Q3—the strongest performance in two years.

Although official data for October 2025 through December 2025 are pending, the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates growth at around 5 percent. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects 2026 to be a “gangbuster year,” with continued strong economic growth.

Inflation

Inflation reached 9.1 percent in 2022, the highest level in decades. Although consumer prices remained elevated through 2025, inflation rates were lower than those recorded during the Biden administration.

The annual rate began 2025 at 3 percent, fell to 2.3 percent in April, and rose back to 3 percent five months later. In November and December, price pressures eased, with the 12-month rate slowing sharply to 2.7 percent thanks mainly to falling gas prices.

Trade

Despite the trade deficit widening in the first three months of 2025 as businesses rushed to front-run President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, America’s monthly trade balance has improved substantially.

Since peaking at $136 billion, the U.S. goods and trade deficit fell to $29 billion in October—the lowest level in 16 years.

Employment

Since last summer, the U.S. labor market has been characterized by what some economists call “low fire, low hire,” with companies neither reducing nor expanding their workforce.

In 2025, employers added 584,000 jobs in total, averaging 49,000 per month.

However, job growth slowed as government payrolls fell by 277,000, reflecting the administration’s efforts to shrink the federal government bureaucracy and support private sector jobs.

Gas Prices

One of the major achievements of the Trump administration has been the substantial decline in gas prices. From record production to loosening regulations, businesses and consumers have seen lower energy costs.

Crude oil prices are trading below $60, while two dozen states are enjoying average gasoline prices below $2.80 a gallon. Market watchers expect the same trends in the year ahead.

Mortgage Rates

When President Donald Trump started his second term at the White House, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 7 percent. Since then, it has fallen significantly, even temporarily sliding below 6 percent for the first time in more than three years.

This has been driven by a blend of falling Treasury yields and federal housing strategies to bring down costs.

Border Security

President Donald Trump has emphasized border security as a central policy priority. By securing the border, the United States has experienced a 93 percent reduction in border crossings, 622,000 deportations, and 1.9 million self-deportations.

This has been accomplished by bolstering enforcement personnel and tightening procedures.

Executive Actions

While the administration secured a major legislative victory with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, President Donald Trump has used the power of the executive branch to advance many of his policy objectives, including tariffs and regulations.

Some of the more than 220 signed executive orders have also drawn legal scrutiny from advocacy organizations, companies, and states, leading to battles that have reached the Supreme Court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 16:20

Trump's Long, Meandering Pre-Davos Presser: 'Things Are Going To Work Out Pretty Well'

Zero Hedge -

Trump's Long, Meandering Pre-Davos Presser: 'Things Are Going To Work Out Pretty Well'

Summary:

In what was a long and meandering speech, with no questions from the press taken till well over an hour in, President Trump's 'pre-Davos' press briefing varied greatly in terms of topics, themes, and emphasis. The president drifted between thoughts in a meandering, unscripted, and often tangential way - as he's been known to sometimes do. One of the strangest moments came when Trump joked about nearly injuring himself with a ring binder. "I wouldn’t have shown the pain," he said. Still, it felt so long that some commentators expressed that this briefing could have gone on indefinitely.

Address came after flurry of late night Truth Social Posts

After a barrage of late-night Truth Social posts that greatly unsettled US allies, President Donald Trump struck a noticeably calmer tone during remarks in the White House press room. Still, the underlying tensions - especially on trade, NATO, and Greenland - remained unresolved as he prepared to travel to Davos.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking earlier in Davos, urged European leaders to show patience, but mounting pushback from foreign capitals suggests Trump may struggle to reassure allies when he arrives in Switzerland.

Greenland

Pressed repeatedly on Greenland, Trump remained confident - and vague: "I think things are going to work out pretty well." He described he has “a lot of meetings scheduled” on Greenland during his Davos trip.

When told that Greenlanders have made clear they do not want to be part of the U.S., Trump replied: "When I speak to Greenlanders I’m sure they are going to be thrilled." Asked how far he would go to acquire the territory, Trump responded simply: “You’ll find out.”

Trump seemed a little more conciliatory: "The United States and NATO will come to an agreement on the future of Greenland that will satisfy both sides" - as Reuters paraphrased it. "I think that we will work something out where NATO is going to be very happy and where we're going to be very happy, but we need it for security purposes," he stated.

On the legality of using tariffs to pressure countries over Greenland, Trump said that if the Supreme Court blocks him, he would pursue another route. “We’ll have to sue something else… what we’re doing now is the best, strongest, fastest, least complicated way.”

Relations with European Leaders

Trump emphasized that he maintains cordial relations with key European leaders, even after public criticism. He said he “gets along well” with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He described French President Emmanuel Macron as “a nice guy.”

Despite this, Trump confirmed he has not spoken with either leader since his Truth Social post criticizing the UK for “planning to give away the island of Diego Garcia,” which he called an act of “great stupidity.”

“They get a bit rough when I’m not around,” Trump said, adding that they treat him well when he is present.

On NATO

Trump once again framed NATO as heavily dependent on U.S. power and spending. “Whether you like it or not, Nato is only as good as we are.” Without the U.S., he said the alliance is “not very strong.”

He insisted no president has done more for NATO: “Nobody has done more for Nato than I have, in every way.”

Trump cited his role in pushing members toward spending up to 5% of GDP on defense and said allies are buying U.S. weapons and sending them to Ukraine. Still, he raised doubts about mutual defense: “I know we’ll come to their rescue, but I just really do question whether or not they’ll come to ours.”

Illegal Immigrants and ICE

Trump expressed rare sympathy for Renee Good, who was fatally shot by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis two weeks ago. “It’s a hard situation” and “That’s so sad,” he said.

He said he felt “terrible” upon learning her father was a “Trump fan.” Notably, Trump diverged from other administration officials by seeming to acknowledge possible misconduct in the incident: ICE will sometimes “make mistakes” and “be too rough with people.”

This contrasted sharply with earlier assertions from Vice President JD Vance and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who described Good as a domestic terrorist.

Throughout much of the event, he held up small posters or cards of criminal migrants - or what seemed 'wanted' type placards - and blamed the prior Biden administration for the surge of illegals and rise in criminality in places like Minneapolis and across the nation.

Economy, Inflation and Messaging

Trump defended his economic record but acknowledged it is not resonating with voters. He said he inherited a “terrible mess” from former President Joe Biden and called his turnaround a “miracle” and a “beautiful picture.” He said at one point, “Prices are coming way down.”

At the same time, Trump admitted his message is failing to land in some quarters: “I’m not getting, maybe I have the bad public relations people, but we’re not getting it across.”

He warned that economic dissatisfaction - particularly over housing, healthcare, and living costs - could hurt Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

Nobel Peace Prize

Trump revisited his long-standing frustration over not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, claiming geopolitical bias as “Norway controls the shots. It’s a joke.”

He said Venezuelan opposition figure María Machado told him he deserved the prize, not her: “President Trump deserves it — he ended eight wars.”

* * *

Trump is expected to appear at Tuesday’s White House press briefing to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of his second term.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt teased the surprise in a post on X, saying, "A very special guest will be joining me at the podium today.... TUNE IN.”

The rare appearance at the briefing podium comes as the president faces extraordinary pushback from America’s European allies over his planned tariffs over Greenland, tensions he’ll face in person this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Watch the full briefing here... "Brace!"

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 16:19

Goldman Exec Denies Plan To Oust Top Lawyer Over Epstein Revelations

Zero Hedge -

Goldman Exec Denies Plan To Oust Top Lawyer Over Epstein Revelations

A senior Goldman Sachs executive says rumors of a plan to oust general counsel and top adviser to CEO David Solomon, Kathryn Ruemmler, are "completely untrue," after recent document dumps from Jeffrey Epstein's estate revealed that she was far closer with him than previously known. 

Ruemmler - a former top legal advisor in the Obama administration - told Goldman execs when they hired her that her relationship with Epstein was purely professional and stemmed from her time as a white-collar defense attorney at Latham & Watkins. It would later become public that she not only met with Epstein dozens of times and exchanged friendly emails for years, she was listed as an executor of Epstein's will as recently as Jan. 18, 2019 - which had been removed before he died in prison on Aug. 10 of that year.

She was hired at Goldman in April 2020 as the bank's head of regulatory affairs. In November of that year, she was forced to give a heads up to Goldman execs when the Daily Beast published an article revealing she was in the courtroom at Epstein's 2019 arraignment. 

Her name also appears hundreds of times in a 500-page log of emails between Epstein and his lawyers that are still under seal because Epstein's estate has cited attorney-client privilege, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

In November, Congress released dozens of emails she had exchanged with Epstein, including some disparaging President Trump, that sparked a panic among some Goldman executives. 

“Trump is so gross,” Ruemmler wrote in a 2017 message with Epstein. He replied “worse in real life and upclose.” -WSJ

Goldman Panics

After an April 2023 report in the Journal detailing the more extensive connections between Ruemmler and Epstein - including how the two had "met dozens of times, that Epstein had visited apartments she was considering buying and that he offered assistance with her travel planning," including a 2017 plan to take her to 'pedo island,' bankers complained to senior management - pointing out that she had a role on the firm's reputational risk committee. The bankers were essentially told to stand down. 

Then, at a dinner organized at CEO David Solomon's Manhattan apartment in 2024, several women who attended told the Journal that they were appalled that Solomon had Ruemmler help organize the event. Solomon, at a later gathering with high-ranking women, complained that Ruemmler had garnered that kind of reaction - and couldn't believe that there were senior women at the firm who would bristle at her. Solomon told the WSJ in a statement that no women had ever raised concerns to him about Ruemmler's involvement in the dinner. 

Concern inside Goldman had picked up by spring 2025 as the public’s focus on releasing the Epstein files intensified. The Trump administration initially vowed to release everything and then pulled back. Some high up the ranks at Goldman thought the firm dodged a bullet, people familiar with the matter said. The relief was short-lived when the House Oversight Committee subpoenaed the Epstein estate in August.

In September, the House committee released the Jan. 18, 2019, version of Epstein’s will that listed Ruemmler as a backup executor. 

Her presence on the will had been discovered by some at Goldman as far back as 2023 when an external lawyer informed a Goldman executive, people familiar with the matter said. -WSJ

Ouster in the Works?

According to the new report, Goldman exec John Rogers - who brought Ruemmler into the bank, reportedly told close associates he was formulating a contingency plan for her exit later this year, according to people familiar with the matter. The idea would be to let her save face with as graceful an exit as possible. 

When asked about it, Rogers told the outlet "That is completely untrue." Another person familiar with the matter said that Solomon hasn't been involved with the plan. 

Ruemmler, meanwhile, doubled down on her assertion that she kept things professional, telling the Journal that her association with Epstein was from when "it was my job to engage with people and companies that had serious legal and public relations problems. Many were under criminal investigation, and many had been convicted of crimes."

She also insists that she never represented Epstein or advocated on her behalf, despite Epstein texting an unknown individual with "what Kathy suggests we tell Waco" (later corrected to WaPo, as in the Washington Post). 

Epstein also told some of his lawyers in 2019 that Ruemmler, a former federal prosecutor, could be a valuable asset to his legal defense. Some on his team discussed asking her to prepare a character witness letter for a bail hearing - as well as she, among other female lawyers under consideration, could cross-examine some of Epstein's accusers, people familiar with the matter told the Journal. 

Ruemmler denied this, telling the outlet that she never drafted a letter, nor was she asked to cross-examine victims. 

Goldman spox Tony Fratto also told the Journal: "Before she accepted the offer to join Goldman Sachs, she proactively disclosed her association with Jeffrey Epstein and other high-profile clients and contacts who might attract media attention, so that the firm would be aware of them. The firm did its own diligence and was satisfied. Nobody involved in Kathy’s hiring had concerns about her prior legal work."

However, recent disclosures have triggered internal and external reviews, which are expected to continue if more information comes to light, according to the report. 

Ruemmler and Epstein's relationship appears to have really taken off in 2014, the year she left the Obama administration and was a partner at Latham & Watkins. She was put into Epstein's orbit by Reid Weingarten - a layer at Steptoe who also transferred his client, Swiss bank Edmond de Rothschild Group - to Ruemmler.  In 2015, Epstein has entered into a $25 million consulting agreement with the Swiss bank that he negotiated with Ariane de Rothschild - one of his associates. 

Ruemmler took on Rothschild as a Latham client, representing it in a U.S. regulatory matter. Latham has said Epstein wasn’t one of the firm’s clients. Weingarten went on to become one of the lawyers who represented Epstein in his 2019 criminal case. -WSJ

So it looks like Goldman is publicly standing behind their former Epstein gal-pal top lawyer, for now. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 15:40

Shellenberger: The Left Is Getting People Killed At This Point

Zero Hedge -

Shellenberger: The Left Is Getting People Killed At This Point

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Investigative journalist Michael Shellenberger has accused the radical left of getting people killed through ongoing delusions and interference with federal immigration enforcement, pointing to the fatal shooting of Renee Good as a prime example.

Appearing on FOX News Channel’s “Jesse Watters Primetime,” Shellenberger highlighted how leftist rhetoric and actions are radicalizing individuals like Good, leading them into perilous situations while obstructing lawful operations.

“I think left is getting people killed at this point. There’s no other way to say it,” Shellenberger stated. “These are not difficult issues, legally, morally. The public voted for a president who is implementing his policies, it’s undemocratic to halt the implementation of those policies, which is what is happening.”

He referenced prior incidents of leftist extremism, noting, “A year ago, we were talking about the left setting Teslas on fire. Obviously, between then and now, Charlie Kirk was murdered, the radicalization of the left is ongoing here.”

Shellenberger portrayed Good as a victim of this radicalization, caught in a web of misinformation. “Renee Good, the woman that was killed, is a victim of all this herself. She’s in the grip of a delusion. Her partner afterwards said that she couldn’t believe that they were using real bullets. They’re not in reality. They’re in some total fantasy universe.”

He continued, “They imagine they’re fighting Nazis. They don’t understand that a majority of their fellow Americans, you know, voted to implement the policies that ICE is implementing, and they imagine the police would use fake bullets.”

Shellenberger called for accountability, suggesting intervention in cases where protesters endanger children. “They’re going to need Child Protective Services if those reports are true of these people bringing children to a violent protest. That’s putting their children at risk.”

He emphasized the broader implications: “I mean, it’s a dangerous moment, Jesse. I hope this will finally serve as a wake-up call to the left, because, yes, they’re getting people killed. It’s as simple as that.”

Addressing host Jesse Watters’ point about media figures like Wolf Blitzer misrepresenting the incident, Shellenberger criticized the disconnect. Watters remarked, “I mean, Mike, did you see Wolf Blitzer? It’s like day 10 of this, and he still thinks this woman was just randomly caught in traffic after dropping her six-year-old off at school?”

Shellenberger also targeted professional politicians like Ilhan Omar and Tim Walz for cynically amplifying the narrative. In response to Watters asking if they truly believe their own rhetoric comparing the situation to the Civil War or Nazi Germany, Shellenberger replied, “Oh, no, of course they don’t. I mean, it’s very cynical, as you’re pointing out. I think you’re spot on.”

“The real villains here are the people that were spreading – that are spreading the lies that are deceiving people like Renee Good, who is going and committing acts, imagining that she’s invulnerable, getting in the middle of a police operation, imagining that that is somehow – that really, I mean, that’s the only way that that could have happened, is that she thought she was invulnerable,” the journalist urged.

He reiterated, “Her partner said she couldn’t believe it was real bullets. That’s the level we’re dealing with here.”

Shellenberger underscored the illegality of interfering with federal operations: “So, I mean, the whole thing – this is what the left wanted, unfortunately. I think the question of whether or not this is good politics is a different one, but at least on the moral level, you know, federal government, we have a democracy. The federal government is implementing its policy, and it is illegal and dangerous to interfere in that.”

The critique aligns with the revelations about Good’s involvement in anti-ICE activism. As detailed in our previous report, Good was part of the “ICE Watch” network, trained to disrupt deportation efforts, and footage showed her blocking traffic before accelerating toward agents.

Protests have spread, with clashes in Minneapolis and other cities, prompting the Trump administration to deploy additional federal agents. Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid escalating tensions.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 15:20

"I'm $6K Behind": Maryland Power Bill Crisis Sparks Debt Panic As 14,000 Residents Cry For Help Online

Zero Hedge -

"I'm $6K Behind": Maryland Power Bill Crisis Sparks Debt Panic As 14,000 Residents Cry For Help Online

The Maryland power bill crisis first came to our attention in August 2024, when years of poor power-grid management by Democrats (mostly due to backfiring 'green' policies) in the state collided with surging electricity demand from AI data centers.

Fast forward to today: the power bill crisis in the one-party rule state of Democratic Party kings and queens, headed by leftist Gov. Wes Moore, who has presidential ambitions, is getting hammered in the polling numbers (new data from Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media) as struggling Marylanders are financially crushed by mounting power-bill debt and venting their frustration in a Facebook group with nearly 14,000 angry residents.

The Facebook group called "BGE Victims" has amassed 13.7k members, with many in the group pointing fingers at not just the local utility BGE or the grid operator PJM, but also the one-party rule of Democrats in the state who have masqueraded as competent managers but in reality are far-left activists looting the state's coffers to fund pet projects from supporting illegal aliens to all things woke.

Epic grid mismanagement, such as retiring fossil fuel power plants and de-growthing the grid with unreliable solar and wind to solve what Democrats say is a climate crisis emergency, has been nothing more than mismanagement, and the end result has been the financial destruction of the working class.

"I just joined this post and I'm in the same situation as a lot of people my BG& bill is 800dollars a month and I have no idea why I've called them and they've even came out and they told me the same thing that they told other people change my lightbulbs do this do that and it's still that much right now I'm in a worse situation than ever my BgE bill has accumulated. I'm not kidding to almost $6000 behind they can't cut the electric off till the end of February," Baltimore resident Sheryl Harrison wrote in the group, posting her total past due amount from her electricity bill that tops nearly $6,100.

The panic is real in Maryland. Working-class folks are drowning in power bill debt.

Some residents are instructing folks how to bypass meters to get free power. That's how bad the power crisis is in Maryland.

Folks are learning that their power bill crisis is merely the result of grid mismanagement by Democrats.

Power bill debt is mounting.

Folks are learning.

About 1.5 years ago, we wrote a note explaining how Maryland "couldn't import itself out of an energy crisis," amid the urgent need to boost in-state power generation. At the time, we noted that roughly 40% of the electricity consumed by Marylanders was imported from surrounding states.

ESG Legal Solutions penned a note warning that Maryland's "apocalyptic environmentalism" was one of the key drivers of the state's power-grid crisis, a reality that was well visible to anyone except left-wing politicians as they pursued state-killing green policies in the name of fighting climate change.

On top of the epic grid mismanagement that failed to properly expand spare capacity for data centers, we have also warned that the latest PJM auction suggests that, absent price controls, power bills in the state could rise even further.

Here's the latest:

Local elections matter. It's time for Marylanders to wake up or risk being financially slaughtered by decades of bad decisions made by Democrats.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 15:00

Markets May Be Wrong About The Risks Of Venezuela & Greenland

Zero Hedge -

Markets May Be Wrong About The Risks Of Venezuela & Greenland

Authored by Daniel Lacalle, 

Most of the recent reports about the potential opportunity in Greenland and Venezuela focus on the large capital expenditure required, technical challenges, and legal security risks. However, markets may exaggerate the risks and underestimate the potential.

It is interesting to read that the United States should not invest in Venezuela and Greenland because they are high-risk, low-potential areas, but the same analysts find no problem in China and Russia developing those resources.

The oil market will likely lose most of its geopolitical risk premium with Venezuela’s transition to a transparent democracy and a possible regime change in Iran. Adding the development of Greenland may have the same effect that the shale revolution had. The potential of lower gas prices and tech disinflation, higher investment, and more transparent price formation is significant.

The world does not have resource scarcity. It has legal and regulatory excess. In fact, most of the limitations in Greenland and Venezuela are legal and regulatory, more than technical, even if the technical aspect may include some challenges. Deregulation and a transparent legal framework are key to unlocking the enormous potential.

Greenland is undeniably a high-return mining opportunity. The Malmbjerg Molybdenum project offers an estimated 33.8% IRR with $1.17 billion Net Present Value on $820 million capital expenditure. All the feasibility studies have been completed, the permitting is done, and it is just a question of taking the decision to act. The Tanbreez rare earth project offers an exceptional 180% estimated IRR with around $3 billion NPV on just $290 million capex. Similar economics can be found in its graphite & gold resources. Manageable capital expenditure and a return on invested capital that comfortably exceeds the weighted average cost of capital with rapid payback periods.

In oil and gas, the Greenland opportunity finds more legal and regulatory resistance, but the returns may be significantly higher. Greenland holds very large but still unproven oil and gas resources, with technically attractive volumes but slightly more challenging economics due to government policy.

A USGS Circum‑Arctic assessment estimates mean undiscovered conventional resources in the East Greenland Rift Basins at about 31.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids). The Greenland government mentions a separate West Greenland/Baffin Bay assessment with a mean resource of more than 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Independent basin studies for onshore Jameson Land suggest around 4 billion barrels of unrisked recoverable oil, with about 1.2 billion barrels targeted by the first two planned wells. Onshore blocks are less expensive and logistically safer than deep‑offshore Arctic projects. Analysts highlight that even a significant discovery would likely carry high break-even prices due to Arctic logistics, absence of infrastructure, export‑terminal requirements and harsh operating conditions. Different independent analyses show breakeven oil prices at $75/bbl and IRRs of 13%. However, the inflated cost estimates come mostly from the estimates of small independent exploration companies, not from more efficient and cost-effective majors.

The problem in Greenland is not navigating the technical challenges and reducing costs but government interventionism. In 2021, the government stopped issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses, citing climate-related reasons. This limits the potential, as there is little option of improving costs via economies of scale and major player involvement. Many other areas with technical challenges have proven to be economically viable at $60 a barrel with a better combination of cost structures and engineering economies of scale.

​Greenland suffers a policy paradox. Legal licenses exist, but an overtly anti‑oil stance and strong so-called environmental scrutiny have made investor confidence The challenges posed by Arctic logistics and infrastructure limitations primarily stem from the difficulty of installing large-scale operations, which discourages oil companies from making productive investments. cost-efficient systems. Litigation, regulatory animosity, political opposition, and permitting delays are the main problems. Greenland’s undeniable oil and gas opportunity can be unlocked with a solid program of environmentally respectful and technically efficient investments where major players can leverage economies of scale and find the technical solutions to reduce costs.

Analysts’ estimates of high costs in Greenland are made with a static view of the industry, which has proven to be able to slash expenses and boost productivity numerous times in equally challenging areas.

The case in Venezuela is also very attractive and only limited by legal and political insecurity.

Venezuela’s oil production has plummeted from 3.5 million barrels per day to less than a million due to the dictatorship’s plundering of PDVSA, the national oil company, and abandoning productive investment. The Maduro regime weaponized PDVSA to make it a cash machine for its political spending, financing of dictatorships, and making the leaders of the regime rich.

A speedy recovery of 500 thousand barrels per day is relatively easy and would require Chevron’s four joint ventures to currently produce around 200 kb/d, which accounts for about 22–25% of total Venezuelan output, and this figure could increase by 50% in less than a year and a half by simply leveraging existing resources. Productive capacity of existing fields would require the intervention of the main service providers to solve the leaks and revamp the technically outdated infrastructure.

Adding one million barrels per day to the country’s output would require a maximum of $70 billion of capital expenditure. However, restoring to 2018 levels only needs $20 billion. In fact, once legal, regulatory, and safety hurdles are lifted, companies may find that the cost is substantially lower.

Many existing projects in Venezuela could raise production and improve project‑level IRRs once political risk, legal limitations, and contracts normalize. Petropiar, in the Orinoco Belt, is currently at 50% of capacity because the upgrader did not have major maintenance in six years as the government corruption and interventionism soared. With full maintenance and recovery, production can double from current levels. The Petroboscán project in Lake Maracaibo can easily increase production by 40% through workovers and incremental recovery technology.

In Venezuela’s main projects, infrastructure and wells already exist. Therefore, adding incremental production from infill drilling, artificial lift, and maintenance is relatively fast with low additional costs, which could double IRRs rapidly.

Chevron’s four joint ventures currently produce around 200 kb/d, about 22–25% of total Venezuelan output, and this figure could increase by 50% in less than a year and a half “just leveraging what’s on the ground,” which means high‑return, short‑cycle investments in maintenance and debottlenecking, according to the company.

The Junín and Carabobo projects are older development plans (Junín 2, 4, 5, 6 and Carabobo 1–3) that can produce between 200 and 450 kb/d for each block, but progress has stalled due to corruption, insecurity, and the country’s financial problems.

A 2025 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) report estimates that six major heavy-oil projects would need about $47.4 billion in investment and could increase production capacity by around 2.1 million b/d, showing the large amount of production that could be restarted if conditions become safe, clear, and appealing. Venezuela currently has four upgrading units, but only one (at Petropiar) is operational. Therefore, the implementation of new or restored upgraders is crucial for rapidly increasing Orinoco crude production.

The most attractive return and the best way to recover the economy of Venezuela come from rehabilitating existing joint ventures and partially built Orinoco projects, where sunk infrastructure plus large in‑place reserves combine to provide small incremental capex and large production increases, according to the EAI report.

The recovery of Venezuela’s oil industry can generate significant benefits for the nation and its citizens once a transparent system of ownership, royalties, and legal framework is implemented. Venezuela will, therefore, need to implement a system like what Milei has created for Argentina, the RIGI framework, designed to provide legal and investor security for large-scale international investments. The Venezuela investment opportunity must be syndicated and implemented through consortiums to accelerate the capital deployment and maximize the output improvement.

The Venezuela opportunity for the world is enormous. It has the world’s largest crude reserves, and a new government that guarantees international arbitration, transparent and solid contracts and a hydrocarbon law reform can also create tens of thousands of jobs directly and indirectly, strengthening the domestic supply chains, bringing back the more than 18 thousand technical experts the Maduro regime dismissed, and restoring PDVSA’s management and workforce to incorporate credible professionals instead of political figures.

The Venezuela opportunity offers an average 20% IRR at current oil prices once the initial restoration phase is completed. Decades of underinvestment and political dysfunction can be solved rapidly with decisive actions and technical skill. In five years, Venezuela can double current production levels and lead to an economic recovery that requires restoring private property security and eliminates the dictatorship’s parallel administrations and opaque agreements.

A more stable post‑Maduro setting can give results quickly and start a multi-year process of unlocking investment and recovering production. A Breakwave Advisors special report shows that a recognized government and market reintegration can allow production to trend back toward historic peaks (around 3.5 mbpd). Wood Mackenzie highlights that with regulatory clarity and access to capital, Venezuelan supply could become a significant medium‑term growth source for refiners configured to heavy crude. An Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) technical report says that, with “proper investment,” Venezuela could sustain roughly 2.5 mbpd over 20–30 years, highlighting scope for production growth using horizontal wells, artificial lift, and other secondary recovery technologies.

In Venezuela, less than $10B dedicated to productivity technologies in specific heavy‑oil projects could double recovery factors over a 5-year period, showing +20% IRR project‑level economics relative to reserves in place.

Can it be done quickly? An Atlantic Council study highlights that licensing and contract reforms letting existing operators expand, plus new and transparent participation contracts, could add 500–600 thousand barrels per day in 12–18 months.​

The only reason why analysts see the current challenges as insurmountable is because it seems difficult to believe that the legal and investor security framework will change drastically to an investment-friendly and transparent system.

What Greenland and Venezuela show is that the enormous resource and development opportunities may have technical challenges, but those are easily solvable once the legal and regulatory framework changes from a corrupt and unstable system, in Venezuela, or an interventionist one, like Greenland, to a political and regulatory system focused on facilitating investment and looking for solutions, not creating problems.

Once politics stop interfering, investment will thrive. If you want respect for the environment, economic development, and sustainability, you should trust engineers, not politicians.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 12:40

HUD Initiates Investigations Into Race-Based Housing Programs In Minneapolis

Zero Hedge -

HUD Initiates Investigations Into Race-Based Housing Programs In Minneapolis

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is investigating the city of Minneapolis’s “comprehensive racialized housing plans,” the department said in a statement on Jan. 16.

HUD’s Office for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity (FHEO) notified the city of the investigation and stated its belief that the city’s race-based housing programs violate the Fair Housing Act and Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

In a Jan. 15 letter to Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, FHEO Assistant Secretary Craig W. Trainor said the Fair Housing Act makes it illegal to discriminate against any person on the basis of race or national origin in the sale or rental of a dwelling. Title VI bans racial or national origin discrimination in any program that receives federal funding.

The letter alleged an increase in racial and ethnic favoritism within the Minnesota government, calling it “alarming.”

Trainor cited fraud committed by Somali citizens in the state that he said cost U.S. taxpayers at least $9 billion. Trainor accused Gov. Tim Walz’s administration of allowing the fraud to flourish and of trying to politically align with the Somali community, primarily for election favoritism.

“This racial favoritism appears to extend to Minneapolis’s housing policy,“ the letter reads.

”Specifically, Minneapolis has committed to making available and allocating housing resources based on race and nationality.”

The letter cited the “Minneapolis 2040” plan issued by the city, which aims to prioritize housing resources to “cultural districts,” which are defined in the plan as areas rooted in “communities significantly populated by people of color, Indigenous people, and/or immigrants.”

The plan promises to expand programs that support existing homeowners in affording and maintaining their homes, with a “focus on people of color, indigenous people.” It vowed to use “racial equity goals” as one criterion when examining various state programs and services.

The city’s Community Planning and Economic Development department also intends to prioritize rental housing to black people, indigenous people, people of color, and immigrant groups by leveraging its rental licensing authority, the letter reads.

“As a result of Minneapolis’s racialized housing policy, I have directed the Office of Special Investigations to investigate Minneapolis,” Trainor wrote.

“If FHEO finds reasonable cause to believe Minneapolis has or intends to violate the civil rights of its citizens, we will file charges of discrimination or refer the matter to the United States Department of Justice for further enforcement.”

President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Eric Scott Turner, testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 16, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

HUD Secretary Scott Turner called Minnesota ground zero for fraud and corruption, accusing the state of choosing to ignore the law and instead serving a “cynical political agenda.”

These alleged actions undermine American values and the commitment to equal treatment under the law for all citizens, he said.

“In Minnesota, @HUDgov has uncovered up to $84 million in ineligible assistance during Biden’s final year—including $496,000 in improper assistance to 509 dead tenants,” Turner said in a Jan. 13 post on X.

The Epoch Times reached out to Walz and Frey for comment and did not receive a response.

Minnesota Operations, Fraud

Both Walz and Frey have been highly critical of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions in the state.

In a Jan. 15 statement, Walz accused Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents of “pulling over people indiscriminately, including U.S. citizens, and demanding to see their papers.”

On Jan. 17, Walz’s office dismissed reports that the governor was being investigated by the Department of Justice.

“Weaponizing the justice system and threatening political opponents is a dangerous, authoritarian tactic,” he said.

Meanwhile, in a Jan. 7 statement, Frey asked Immigration and Customs Enforcement to leave Minneapolis and the state “immediately.”

“We stand by our immigrant and refugee communities—know that you have our full support,” he said.

Multiple federal agencies are probing Minnesota for the fraudulent use of federal funds.

Last month, a federal prosecutor suggested that more than 50 percent of the approximately $18 billion in federal funds assigned to the state since 2018 may have been stolen.

The funds were channeled into 14 state programs, including housing, autism, and child nutrition services run by Somalis.

Since 2022, almost 100 people have been charged in various Minnesota fraud schemes, and most of them are of Somali descent.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 12:00

US NatGas Spikes Most Since Ukraine Invasion On Arctic Blast, Major Winter Storm Threat

Zero Hedge -

US NatGas Spikes Most Since Ukraine Invasion On Arctic Blast, Major Winter Storm Threat

US natural gas futures surged for a second straight session as an Arctic cold blast and mounting winter storm threats forced traders to reassess energy demand, with heating demand across much of the eastern US now forecast to surge sharply.

As of 09:00 ET, NatGas futures are up nearly 27%, marking the largest intraday jump since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late January 2022. The move comes as weather models flipped sharply colder, now forecasting a massive deep freeze across the eastern half of the country through the end of the month.

NatGas prices are set to reclaim the $4 per mmbtu level.

Average temperatures across Washington, DC, are plunging and could average around 10°F by the weekend. This cold blast is far more extreme than the one in the first half of December. Notably, this period typically coincides with the most intense part of winter.

The cold blast has sent the heating demand forecast for the next two weeks through the roof.

More details on the cold blast:

  • A colder outlook indicates a higher heating demand that would erase the modest storage surplus seen earlier this month.

  • Hedge funds had increased bearish bets last week, leaving the market vulnerable to a short-covering rally once forecasts changed.

  • Forecasters at Atmospheric G2 said earlier that weather models underestimated both the intensity and the geographic reach of the Arctic cold.

  • Commodity Weather Group expects average temperatures around 8°F below normal across much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of southern New England through this weekend.

  • The US Weather Prediction Center warned two dozen weather stations could break or tie daily temperature records through Jan. 26.

Among meteorologists on X, discussion has abruptly shifted toward what could become a historic winter storm stretching from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, beginning Friday. Weather observer Ryan Hall detailed this winter threat in a report Monday titled “This Could Be The Big One.”

Here's what meteorologists are saying:

All eyes are on the Mid-Atlantic late this week as winter storm threats rise.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 11:40

30 Ways Trump Impacted The World In His First Year

Zero Hedge -

30 Ways Trump Impacted The World In His First Year

Authored by Travis Gillmore and Cathy He via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump used his first year back in the White House to set the tone for his second presidency, changing the nation and the world in the process.

Through more than 225 executive orders, the president reorganized federal government policy and focus, while advancing his America First agenda.

On the world stage, Trump reset global trade policy, brokered peace deals, and used the U.S. military in several defining moments.

Here are 30 ways the Trump administration has transformed the country and beyond.

1. One Big Beautiful Bill Act

In July 2025, Congress passed Trump’s signature domestic policy legislation—the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—that implemented sweeping changes to tax and social policies over the next 10 years.

The legislation included making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent; tax breaks on tips, overtime, and Social Security income; completing the border wall, adding $150 billion in defense spending, and imposing work requirements for Medicaid.

Other elements allow for accelerated depreciation deductions meant to incentivize business development and tax exemptions for interest paid on American-made vehicles.

President Donald Trump arrives to speak on his policy to end tax on tips in Las Vegas on Jan. 25, 2025. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

2. Curbing Illegal Immigration

After the president enacted strict border security policies, including invoking the Illegal Alien Enemies Act of 1798, illegal immigration plummeted to the lowest numbers ever recorded.

Zero illegal immigrants were released by authorities for eight straight months, starting in May 2025, and more than 2.5 million illegal immigrants living in the United States were deported, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Administration officials prioritized the removal of known gang members and violent criminals, while nearly 2 million illegal immigrants chose to self deport, some using Customs and Border Protection’s Home app.

Efforts to secure the border included hiring thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents, ending catch and release policies, and expanding detention capacity.

Trump said deportations of illegal immigrants will benefit Americans by lowering crime and reducing competition for jobs and housing.

A U.S. Border Patrol agent from the Big Bend Sector takes part in a binational patrol called “Operation Mirror” with Mexican Army personnel to deter migrant crossings from Ojinaga, Mexico, to Presidio, Texas, on Nov. 4, 2025. Herika Martinez/AFP via Getty Images

3. Expanded Travel Bans

Trump cited national security concerns when he fully restricted travel from 12 countries last year—including Afghanistan, Iran, and Somalia—then expanded the directive in December 2025 to include five more nations. Nineteen countries are also subject to partial restrictions.

Beginning Jan. 21, the State Department will halt immigrant visa processing for nationals from 75 countries. The move stems from concerns that those nationals would require welfare or public benefits in the United States.

Soldiers of the Somalia National Army walk near the frontlines at Sabiid, one of the towns they have liberated from the Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists, Al-Shabaab, in Somalia's lower-Shabelle region on Nov. 11, 2025. Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images

4. Birthright Citizenship

One of the first executive orders signed in Trump’s second term challenged traditional interpretations of the 14th Amendment by ending birthright citizenship for those born to illegal immigrants or individuals in the country on temporary visas.

States and groups filed lawsuits against the administration, and lower courts ruled to block the president’s order. A challenge to the blocks reached the Supreme Court, prompting a landmark decision restricting courts’ use of nationwide injunctions.

The high court has not yet ruled on the constitutionality of birthright citizenship.

The entrance to the U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services location where a New York City Council data analyst of Venezuelan origin was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement while making an immigration appointment, in the Long Island town of Bethpage, N.Y., on Jan. 14, 2026. Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

5. Visa Changes

The administration increased fees for H-1B visas for skilled foreign workers to $100,000, expressing hope that this would incentivize businesses to hire American workers.

A newly introduced Trump Gold Card, available for purchase for $1 million for individuals and $2 million for businesses, will expedite residency processing for qualified applicants who pass background screenings.

The administration also suspended the green card lottery program in the wake of the Brown University shooting in December 2025. The diversity visa lottery awarded approximately 50,000 green cards each year to people from countries with limited representation in the United States.

A Trump Gold Card is displayed in the Oval Office as President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders on Sept. 19, 2025. Trump signed an order creating the Trump Gold Card expedited residency progam for a fee of $1 million for individuals and $2 million for sponsorships by corporations. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

6. National Guard Deployments

The president first deployed the National Guard in Los Angeles to quell riots that erupted in June 2025 after protests targeted Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

Trump then sent troops to Washington to help combat high rates of violent crime in the capital. Subsequent deployments sent National Guard members to Portland, Chicago, and Memphis.

Democratic leaders challenged the deployments, and the Supreme Court in December 2025 ruled on a preliminary basis that the administration could not deploy National Guard troops to Chicago to protect federal immigration agents. Trump later withdrew guardsmen from Chicago, Portland, and Los Angeles.

National Guard members patrol the National Mall in Washington on Aug. 27, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

7. DOGE

On the first day of his second term, Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to investigate and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government..

Initially led by Elon Musk, the department cites $215 billion in taxpayer savings on its website, derived from contract cancellations, lease terminations, the elimination of duplicate payments, and halting fraudulent activities.

Agencies most impacted by DOGE include the Department of Health and Human Services, the General Services Administration, and the Social Security Administration.

Efforts also included the large-scale layoff of federal workers, totaling about 317,000, of which approximately 92 percent left voluntarily after taking up buyout offers, according to the Office of Personnel Management.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk receives a key from President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on May 30, 2025. Musk served as an adviser to Trump and led the Department of Government Efficiency. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

8. Jan. 6 Pardons

On Day One, Trump pardoned nearly 1,600 people charged with various crimes for participating in protests and riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

He also commuted the sentences of 14 incarcerated individuals rather than granting full, unconditional pardons, thus leaving criminal convictions in place for some charged with seditious conspiracy—including Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes and Proud Boys members Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, and others.

People gather outside the DC Central Detention Facility, after President Donald Trump pardoned nearly 1,600 Jan. 6 defendants, in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

9. Pulling US Out of Climate Pacts

Trump initiated the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords for a second time on Jan. 20, 2025. In January 2026, the United States pulled out of the global benchmark climate treaty, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, and withdrew from the Green Climate Fund, which finances much of the U.N.’s climate initiatives.

Domestically, the administration has moved to overhaul climate-related regulations, including rescinding electric vehicle mandates, halting offshore wind projects, and revoking a climate finding that would pave the way for expansive deregulation.

The COP30 logo is seen in front of the central building ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 in Belem, Brazil, on Nov. 3, 2025. The Conference of the Parties (COP) meets annually to discuss and negotiate on climate-related issues. Wagner Meier/Getty Images

10. Eliminating DEI

Federal guidelines pertaining to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) were eliminated on Trump’s first day in office. The change terminated training programs and requirements, along with positions related to DEI, and reprioritized merit-based hiring practices.

The administration, citing civil rights law, has also sought to ban DEI in universities and public schools that receive federal funding.

The moves were made amid a broader backdrop of corporations—including Amazon, McDonald’s, and Meta—rolling back their DEI policies.

President Donald Trump, joined by golf legend Tiger Woods, speaks during a reception honoring Black History Month in the East Room of the White House on Feb. 20, 2025. The Black History Month celebration comes as Trump has signed a series of executive orders ending federal diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs and cutting funding to schools and universities that do not cut DEI programs. Win McNamee/Getty Images

11. Dismantling Education Department

Trump is pushing Congress to eliminate the Education Department, with Secretary Linda McMahon leading the charge to phase it out. More than half of the department staff has been laid off, and many functions are being transferred to other departments.

The administration wants states to oversee administrative functions for their own education systems.

The Department of Education building in Washington on July 6, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

12. Probing Universities

The federal government has withheld billions of dollars in funding from colleges and universities with recent histories of alleged civil rights violations and disruptive or violent pro-Palestinian protests, prompting legal challenges.

Settlements were reached with Brown, Columbia, Cornell, and others. Columbia agreed to pay a $200 million fine plus $21 million to Jewish employees harassed by co-workers and students.

The administration is currently locked in a legal battle with Harvard, with billions in federal funds frozen.

Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass., on July 4, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

13. MAHA Agenda

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s appointment as secretary of Health and Human Services prompted a reimagining of the federal government’s approach to managing food and medicine.

Under the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative, Kennedy called on states to remove junk food from food stamp programs. Eighteen states have moved to do so.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released a new inverted food pyramid that prioritizes healthy fats, proteins, fruits, and vegetables.

“The new guidelines recognize that whole, nutrient-dense food is the most effective path to better health and lower health care costs,” Kennedy said while unveiling the new guidelines.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins hold up ice cream cones during a press conference on the steps of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in Washington on July 14, 2025. Kennedy held a press conference along with Rollins, and others, as they announced that ice cream makers who are responsible for 90 percent of the nation’s ice cream and frozen dairy desserts are pledging to eliminate many artificial food dyes by the end of 2027. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

14. Lowering Drug Prices

The administration balanced the threat of tariffs on imported medications and ingredients with financial incentives to change the longstanding practice of major pharmaceutical companies of charging U.S. customers 400 percent or more for brand-name medications than they charge overseas customers.

More than a dozen pharmaceutical companies have entered into Most Favored Nation agreements with the United States so far, and Trump has asked Congress to codify this pricing policy into law.

Among the price reductions included in these agreements are Amgen’s cholesterol lowering drug Repatha from $573 to $239; HIV medication Reyataz, by Bristol Myers Squibb, from $1,449 to $217; and Hepatitis C medication Epclusa, by Gilead Sciences, from $24,920 to $2,425.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks next to charts displaying drug prices at an event in which President Donald Trump delivered remarks on lowering drug prices in the Oval Office on Nov. 6, 2025. Trump announced that his administration has reached agreements with drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk that would lower the price of some GLP-1 weight loss medications. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

15. Gender Clarification

On his first day in office, Trump defined the federal government’s position on gender with an executive order declaring that the United States recognizes “two sexes, male and female.”

“These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality,” the order reads.

Trump later barred federal funding from schools and institutions that allow men to compete in women’s sports.

The University of Pennsylvania, which was sanctioned for allowing a male to compete on the women’s swim team, agreed to strip that athlete, Lia Thomas, of all awards, including his 2022 NCAA national championship, and send a letter of apology to all female swimmers who competed against him.

Health officials in December 2025 moved to cut federal funding for hospitals that perform transgender procedures for minors.

In the wake of Trump’s policies, more than 20 medical clinics that offered gender transition procedures have paused or halted the treatments.

President Donald Trump joined by women athletes signs the “No Men in Women’s Sports” executive order in the East Room at the White House on Feb. 5, 2025. The executive order, which Trump signed on National Girls and Women in Sports Day, prohibits males who identify as transgender women from competing in women’s sports. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

16. Redistricting Push

Trump’s push for Texas to redraw its congressional maps precipitated a nationwide effort to redistrict for partisan gain.

After Texas adopted new maps aimed at giving Republicans five extra House seats, California responded with a voter-approved ballot measure that redraws districts to favor Democrats in five seats.

Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina redrew maps in favor of Republicans, while Utah helped Democrats. Other states, including Florida, are in the process of redistricting or are considering redistricting options.

Texas state Rep. Matt Morgan holds a map of the new proposed congressional districts in Texas, during a legislative session as Democratic lawmakers, who left the state to deny Republicans the opportunity to redraw the state's 38 congressional districts, begin returning to the Texas State Capitol in Austin on Aug. 20, 2025. Sergio Flores/Reuters

17. Eyeing Greenland

Trump upped the ante on his bid to acquire Greenland for national security purposes in January, prompting Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers to meet with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the White House on Jan. 14.

The White House has said purchasing the island is under consideration, along with other options, including military force.

Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders have pushed back on Trump’s comments. The president has reiterated that the island is critical for the United States’ security.

“There’s not a thing that Denmark can do about it if Russia or China wants to occupy Greenland, but there’s everything we can do,” Trump said on Jan. 14.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak to the press after a meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 14, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

18. Resolved Global Conflicts

Trump threatened tariffs and applied economic pressure to help negotiate resolutions to eight conflicts around the world, some of which had been ongoing for decades.

Brokered cease-fires include those between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, as well as Thailand and Cambodia.

The president prioritized diplomatic solutions while wielding tariffs as a negotiating tool, emphasizing outcomes based on development and financial opportunities.

(Left) U.S. President Donald Trump (C) hosts the signing ceremony of a peace deal with the President of Rwanda Paul Kagame (L) and the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Felix Tshisekedi (R) at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. (Right) Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump (R) watch as Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (2nd L) and Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet (2nd R) hold up a document after the ceremonial signing of a cease-fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images, Mohd Rasfan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

19.  Ending Israel–Hamas Conflict

Trump oversaw a landmark peace treaty between Israel and Hamas, known as the 20-point Peace Plan, which resulted in the release of all Hamas-held hostages, living and deceased.

Trump called the moment the “historic dawn of a new Middle East,” celebrating an opportunity to pave a path toward peace in a region engulfed in struggles that date back millennia.

Egypt awarded Trump its highest honor, the “Order of the Nile,” and Israel made him the first non-citizen to ever receive its Israel Prize for his peacekeeping efforts.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and U.S. President Donald Trump sign a Gaza cease-fire agreement in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct. 13, 2025. Trump is in Egypt to meet with European and Middle Eastern leaders in what’s being billed as an international peace summit, following the start of a US-brokered cease-fire deal to end the war in the Gaza Strip. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

20. Shifted Ukraine Policy

Trump ramped up pressure on Ukraine and Russia to bring the fighting to an end, suggesting Ukraine will have to cede territory it already lost in the war.

The Trump administration halted the Biden-era policy of free aid to Ukraine and negotiated arms sales instead.

Trump repeatedly expressed disappointment with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin for failing to work towards a peaceful resolution, though he said talks are ongoing and productive.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a press conference following their meeting at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Dec. 28, 2025. Trump invited Zelenskyy to work on the U.S.-proposed peace plan to end the Russia–Ukraine war. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

21. Iran Strikes

Ten days into the Israel–Iran conflict in June 2025, Trump flexed America’s military might during a top-secret operation known as Midnight Hammer that destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Fordow fuel enrichment plant—buried deep underground—was targeted along with two other plants by a fleet of B-2 bombers dropping 14 bunker buster bombs, and a barrage of Tomahawk missiles fired from submarines.

Two days later, the conflict ended in a cease-fire.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine discusses the mission details of a targeted strike on Iran during a news conference at the Pentagon in Arlington, Va., on June 22, 2025. President Donald Trump addressed the nation last night after three Iranian nuclear facilities were struck by the U.S. military. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

22. Backing Iranian Protesters

Iran’s violent clampdown on people protesting the Islamic regime drew criticism from the president.

Trump repeatedly voiced his support for the protesters, telling them to “take over the institutions” in a Truth Social post and promising them that “help is on the way.”

Human rights groups reported that more than 2,200 people were killed by Iranian officials since the protests began.

The president, on Jan. 16, said that the regime’s decision not to go ahead with scheduled executions of protesters impacted his decision not to strike Iran.

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. Demonstrations have been ongoing since December 2025, triggered by soaring inflation and the collapse of the rial, and have expanded into broader demands for political change. Anonymous/Getty Images

23. Maduro Capture

In what may be a legacy-defining foreign policy action, Trump ordered the audacious military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their fortified compound in Caracas on Jan. 3.

The two were brought back to the United States and indicted in a New York federal court on several charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy. Both pleaded not guilty

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that prior to his capture, Maduro was given multiple opportunities to avoid the outcome.

In December 2025, the United States designated the Cartel de Los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, with Maduro as its head. The Cartel de Los Soles is the umbrella term used to describe Venezuelan regime officials involved in drug trafficking.

Rubio said on Jan. 7 that the United States has a three-phase plan for Venezuela: stabilization, recovery, and transition.

Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores (rear), are escorted by federal agents after landing at a Manhattan helipad, as they make their way into an armored car en route to a federal courthouse in New York City on Jan. 5, 2026. XNY/Star Max/GC Images

24.  Drug Boat Strikes

Since September 2025, the U.S. military has targeted narcotics trafficking operations by striking boats smuggling drugs out of Venezuela. The United States has also amassed an unprecedented armada in the Caribbean Sea.

The first known land strike was conducted on a facility used to load illicit shipments in December last year.

Since December, U.S. forces have seized oil tankers attempting to evade sanctions by turning off their transponders and flying false flags to avoid detection.

(Left) A vessel used for drug smuggling burns after the U.S. military struck it in the Eastern Pacific, in this screengrab taken from a handout video released Dec. 18, 2025. (Center) A still taken from footage of a boat strike targeting drug trafficking in the Eastern Pacific on Dec. 4, 2025. (Right) A still taken from footage of a strike on a drug boat in the Caribbean on Nov. 6, 2025. U.S. Southern Command/Handout via Reuters, @Southcom/X, @SecWar/X

25. Focus on Latin America

Trump resurrected and redefined the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine as the “Donroe Doctrine,” establishing U.S. strategic dominance in the Western hemisphere. The strategy culminated in drug boat strikes and U.S. forces deposing Maduro in the latter half of Trump’s first year, but the region was a key focus of the administration early on.

In early 2025, the president launched a pressure campaign threatening to retake control of the Panama Canal if Chinese influence was not removed from the area.

Last February, Panama announced it would not renew its Belt and Road infrastructure investment agreement with Beijing, a win for the U.S. administration.

Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino looks on as U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (R) signs a bilateral agreement, in Panama City on April 9, 2025. Franco Brana/AFP via Getty Images

26. Trade War, Truce With China

Trump imposed two sets of tariffs on China: fentanyl tariffs over the country’s role in sending chemical precursors to Mexican cartels that traffic the drug into the United States; and reciprocal tariffs over Beijing’s decades-long unfair trade practices harming the United States.

Tit-for-tat tariffs imposed after last April’s “Liberation Day” saw U.S. levies reach as high as 245 percent for some Chinese products. After several bouts of escalation and de-escalation, the two sides reached a 1-year trade truce during Trump’s meeting with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in October.

Under the deal, Beijing agreed to resume buying U.S. soybeans, allow for the export of rare earths, and take measures to mitigate the flow of fentanyl precursors to the United States.

Shipping containers are seen at the port in Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong Province on Aug. 12, 2025. China and the United States delayed higher tariffs on each other's imports for 90 days, hours before a trade truce between the world's two largest economies was due to expire on Aug. 12. STR/AFP via Getty Images

27. Tariffs and Trade Deals

The president’s expansive tariff policy has sought to reset global trade and reshore manufacturing to undo what U.S. officials describe as decades of unfair trade practices against the United States.

“Liberation Day” tariffs kicked off trade negotiations with dozens of countries. They’ve resulted in agreements with a host of nations, including the UK, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea.

Meanwhile, tariffs have raised record revenues—approximately $264 billion so far.

The trade deficit in October fell to the lowest level in 16 years.  Tariff revenues have lowered the national debt, and the president has proposed $2,000 tariff rebate checks for citizens. Such a measure would require legislative approval.

The Supreme Court, however, is set to decide whether Trump’s global tariffs are legal. U.S. officials have said that even if they are overturned, the government has other authorities to use to continue levying tariffs.

A chart that shows the reciprocal tariffs the United States is charging other countries is on display at the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on April 2, 2025. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting goods imported to the United States from most trading partners, including China, Japan, and India. Alex Wong/Getty Images

28. Trillions in Investments

Trade negotiations led to a record level of investment in the development and expansion of manufacturing facilities nationwide.

Trump’s May 2025 visit to Gulf countries led to deals totaling more than $2 trillion with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Trade deals with the U.K., the European Union, Japan, and South Korea have led to more than $2 trillion in purchases and investment commitments in the United States.

The United States and Taiwan in January announced a $500 billion deal aimed at reshoring American semiconductor manufacturing.

Trump recently said the “unbelievable success” of tariffs will drive an economic revival in the United States.

Taiwan's chief trade negotiator, Yang Jen-ni (L), Taiwanese Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun (C), and Taiwan’s top representative to the United States, Alexander Yui (R), speak at a press conference at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington on Jan. 16, 2026. Eva Fu/The Epoch Times

29. Shuttering USAID

The federal government reorganization included the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development. The Trump administration eliminated approximately 94 percent of contracts, about $54 billion.

Rubio said the organization “strayed from its original mission of responsibly advancing American interests abroad.”

Since December, the United States has signed health deals with more than a dozen African countries under a new aid model, called the “America First Global Health Strategy.” The United States has pledged billions to improve the health systems of the countries, which have committed billions in matching funds.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks with Kenyan President William Ruto (L) as they arrive for a Health Framework of Cooperation signing ceremony at the State Department in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. Trump administration officials said the agreement would be the first in a series of agreements with developing countries, based on the “trade not aid” policy. Allison Robbert / AFP via Getty Images

30. Securing Rare Earth Supply Chain

The administration, recognizing the threat posed by China’s chokehold on rare-earth refining, has made a series of domestic and international investments to build an alternative supply chain for critical minerals. Rare earth elements are essential for modern manufacturing, including for cars, electronics, and weapons systems.

Ramaco Resources plans to extract more than 450 tons of rare earths from its 4,500-acre Brook Mine near Ranchester, Wyo., on July 11, 2025. John Haughey/The Epoch Times

In July 2025, the Pentagon entered into a landmark partnership with MP Materials, the country’s largest rare earth miner, committing billions of dollars to support the company and becoming its largest shareholder. MP Materials and the Pentagon also entered into a joint venture with a Saudi state-owned mining company to build a rare earths refinery in the Gulf country.

In October 2025, the United States and Australia agreed to invest $3 billion in rare earth projects.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 11:20

Trump Calls UK Chagos Deal "Great Stupidity" - Demonstrates Greenland Must Be Taken

Zero Hedge -

Trump Calls UK Chagos Deal "Great Stupidity" - Demonstrates Greenland Must Be Taken

Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, Canada... and now President Trump sets his sights on 'defending' America's influence over the tiny but strategically important Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia and the Chagos islands.

Early Tuesday the US president on social media blasted the UK government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, branding Britain's prior agreement to hand sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius as an act of "great stupidity" and "total weakness." 

via AP

Washington had backed the arrangement last year under the Joe Biden administration, which transfers the Indian Ocean territory to Mauritius while allowing the UK to retain access to the Diego Garcia air base under a 99-year lease. He has claimed the deal means the UK is planning to "give away the island of Diego Garcia".

In his Truth Social post, Trump took aim at the deal under which London would surrender sovereignty while leasing back the strategically critical military base on the islands, including Diego Garcia - where US forces also have a base. He took the opportunity to say the move underscored exactly why he wants the United States to take control of Greenland.

"The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING," Trump wrote as his concluding sentence in the message.

Despite that Diego Garcia lies some 1,000 miles from the nearest continent (that's how far the southern tip of India is), it hosts a highly secretive UK-US military base - and has since the 1970s.

At this point its inhabitants are all military personnel and contractors, after over 900 Chagossian inhabitants were forcibly removed to make way for the military base in the 1960s.

The remote airbase has at times been used by the United States to attack targets in the Middle East. For example, typically just ahead of any potential or threatened Iran strike, the US begins building up aerial assets and forces at Diego Garcia.

For further background: "The U.K. purchased the islands for the equivalent of around $4 million, CBS News partner BBC News reported, but Mauritius had long argued that it was forced to give the islands away in order to achieve its independence in 1968. The U.K. invited the U.S. to build a military base on the island of Diego Garcia, and it has become a cornerstone of American defense infrastructure in the vast Indian Ocean region."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 11:00

Oklo's Isotope Business: Atomic Alchemy

Zero Hedge -

Oklo's Isotope Business: Atomic Alchemy

Submitted by Tight Spreads

Oklo is one of the most impressive nuclear companies in the public equities market. They uniquely and strategically intersect arguably the most important themes today: energy dominance, critical material supply chains, and national defense.

The market is not pricing in the potential value of the Y-Combinator backed company: Atomic Alchemy acquisition. And those who attempted to value the business have likely found it difficult with the little information given from management. But the most important takeaways are:

  1. Oklo’s management said on a recent earnings call they will be receiving isotope revenues from this segment in the first half of 2026.

  2. Atomic Alchemy’s Versatile Isotope Production Reactors (VIPR) can simultaneously extract isotopes from waste and create 40+ variations of new types via direct irradiation.

  3. Co-locating Atomic Alchemy’s VIPR with Aurora Powerhouses are projected to lower their levelized cost of energy by 30-40%.

  4. VIPR technology converts silicon into Phosphorus-31 with atomic-level consistency for cooler-running chips - which could lead to an interesting partnership/contract for Oklo, Intel, and Nvidia as hinted by management.

Oklo has vertically structured its business into the following segments:

  • Power and heat generation

  • Nuclear waste to fuel recycling and fuel fabrication

  • Advanced fuel services

  • Radioisotopes business via Atomic Alchemy

Last February, Oklo acquired Atomic Alchemy for ~$28.4million, primarily funded via stock and represented less than 1% of dilution to Oklo shareholders. As mentioned in my Isotopes 101 article, Atomic Alchemy’s key technology is the Versatile Isotope Production Reactors (VIPR). The VIPR simultaneously extracts high-value radioisotopes from waste streams (ranging from SMRs to traditional nuclear power plants) and by directly irradiating targets in the VIPR to create over 40 types of radioisotopes on demand.

Oklo sees this as a significant high-margin opportunity and it stands up its nuclear generation business, and is moving expeditiously with the DOE to launch their first radioisotope facility. Recently on January 7, 2026, Oklo and the DOE signed what is known as a “Other Transaction Agreement” which established a framework for execution and risk reduction to design, construct, and operate the first radioisotope pilot plant under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program. Atomic Alchemy is using the radioisotope pilot plant to lay the groundwork for future commercial plants that make medical and research radioisotopes in the United States. Today, many are produced overseas or in aging facilities creating a structural supply shrinkage in an increasing demand environment.

This OTA is significant as it is a faster, well-structured pathway to scaling their isotope business compared to their prior planned Meitner-1 commercial radioisotope production facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

And when thinking about timelines, it’s important to note that this superior pathway to commercializing their isotopes business was only recently announced. Richard Craig Bealmear, Oklo’s Chief Financial Officer, made the following statement about ten months earlier on Oklo’s March 2025 earnings call when the isotope business was still pursuing production at INL:

“Radioisotopes are among the most valuable materials on earth. Take Actinium-225 for example, which sells for $400 per nanogram or an astonishing $400 billion per gram. With our recent acquisition of Atomic Alchemy, we are positioning Oklo to capitalize on this high margin market. Our radioisotope demonstration project is already underway and we could begin generating revenue as early as the first quarter of 2026, unlocking significant near-term value for our business… [while] this acquisition is not expected to have material near-term operating cost increases for Oklo”

Isotopes that are currently disclosed, including special isotopes not found in nature and exclusive to VIPR technology, and rumored are included at the end of the article.

Unpacking Oklo’s vertically integrated business model

In a co-located facility, the Aurora Powerhouse and VIPR function as a single, integrated ecosystem where the flow of nuclear material is never a "choice" between power or isotopes, but rather a sequential process that maximizes every atom. The “closed-loop” system is anchored by Oklo’s Advanced Fuel Center in Tennessee, which employs electrorefining-based pyroprocessing—a high-temperature electrochemical technique uniquely capable of recycling spent fuel into fresh high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) metallic fuel for reuse in Aurora units. VIPR complements this by acting as an on-site “value-added” processor: as spent fuel exits the Aurora core, it undergoes initial extraction in co-located “hot cells” to harvest high-value isotopes like Strontium-90 and Americium-241, removing fission products that act as impurities without diminishing the fuel’s remaining energy potential. The purified remnants are then shipped to Tennessee for full re-fabrication, closing the loop and achieving up to 95% fuel reuse while minimizing waste.

Oklo could also co-locaate their VIPR technologies with the Tennessee fuel recycling and fabrication site as they scale to concentrate the logistics of mass producing and shipping isotope products. But if Oklo chose to co-locate generation and isotopes, that would likely be for a significant contract. The strategy of co-locating Oklo’s Aurora Powerhouse with the VIPR creates a highly efficient industrial hub by functioning as a “shared oven” for energy and advanced materials. By simultaneously extracting high-value co-products from spent fuel and irradiating specialized feedstock, Oklo aims to maximize neutron utility and transform the traditional nuclear cost structure. As highlighted in company updates from August 2025, this vertically integrated approach leverages the Atomic Alchemy segment to create a multi-stream revenue model. By offsetting power generation costs with high-margin isotope production, Oklo is positioning its Aurora-VIPR ecosystem to significantly lower the levelized cost of energy, with analyst projections suggesting a potential 30-40% reduction in long-term operational costs compared to non-integrated advanced reactor designs.

Putting it all together into one Golden Formula,

Bundled services (Aurora nuclear power + fuel services + partnership with RPower for back-up generation + VIPR materials) = (Reliable power delivery that is not at risk to the grid + supplies customers with specialty materials within half-life spans in decay)

Oklo additionally intends to use their Tennessee fuel facilities to recycle spent U.S. nuclear fuel reserves and Atomic Alchemy to produce isotopes from U.S. nuclear waste. The annual cost of managing spent nuclear fuel across the U.S. has risen sharply, reaching nearly $49 billion in 2025 according to congressional testimony. This will only increase as the U.S. expands its nuclear install base. The company views the approximately 94,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel stored across the U.S. as a significant energy reserve equivalent to 1.3 trillion barrels of oil. The nuclear fuel recycling market has a CAGR range of 6.5-8.5% between 2024-2035. And if spent fuel management wasn’t burdensome enough, the country is also facing a potential liability of up to $39.2 billion due to its failure to fulfill a legal mandate to dispose of uncontrollable nuclear waste. The market opportunity for high-level waste management for isotope recovery is a 7.8% CAGR between 2024-2034.

Applying the power and material stack to other industries

Semiconductors and Quantum Computers

In late 2025, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly backed nuclear energy as the essential “round-the-clock” power source for the AI era. It makes sense that NVIDIA, Intel, and Oklo could form a vertically integrated “Quantum and AI Stack” that addresses the critical hurdles of power density and material evolution.

The technical and economic logic for this trifecta is driven by the escalating energy crisis in modern data centers, where individual server racks now demand up to 1 MW of power. To manage these unprecedented loads, Intel requires high-performance power semiconductors, such as MOSFETs and IGBTs, capable of high-frequency electrical switching with minimal thermal loss. While the industry has long used phosphorus as a "dopant" to induce electrical conductivity in silicon, traditional chemical methods are often "blotchy" and uneven, leading to efficiency-draining heat. By leveraging Oklo’s VIPR reactor, Intel can convert its pre-existing silicon sources into Phosphorus-31 atom-by-atom. This achieves an atomic-level consistency that no other commercial method can currently replicate, ensuring chips run significantly cooler and more efficiently bringing down the total cost of ownership in its factories.

It is notable to highlight that Richard Craig Bealmear, Oklo’s Chief Financial Officer, made the following statement on Oklo’s earnings call March 2025:

“We are already exploring joint ventures with customers in radiopharmaceuticals and advanced silicon doping for semiconductor manufacturing positioning Oklo for long-term success in high growth industries”

This collaboration between Intel and NVIDIA, announced in September 2025, elevates both companies from traditional semiconductor manufacturing to a next-generation tier that tightly integrates software and specialized hardware for accelerating AI workloads, requiring next-generation materials. NVIDIA agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel common stock, while the two firms jointly develop custom x86 CPUs designed to connect seamlessly with NVIDIA’s GPUs using NVIDIA’s high-bandwidth NVLink interconnect (a technology that provides significantly faster data transfer and lower latency than standard PCIe connections used in most systems today). This creates a unified “super-system” where Intel’s CPUs and NVIDIA’s GPUs work as one cohesive unit, allowing enterprise customers—such as data centers running massive AI models—to process complex tasks more efficiently without needing to rewrite existing software codebases heavily reliant on NVIDIA’s CUDA platform.

Beyond the atomic-level architecture of the chips themselves, the collaboration between nuclear production and semiconductor fabrication enhances industrial quality control and long-term hardware reliability. Thallium-204 is utilized as a vital tool for high-precision thickness gauging, allowing foundries like Intel to monitor the extreme uniformity required for advanced 300mm wafer fabrication nodes. This ensures that microscopic layers across the wafer meet the rigorous standards necessary for next-generation Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. To further safeguard these assets, Krypton-85 is employed for sophisticated leak detection in hermetically sealed electronic components. This is especially critical for high-power AI enterprise hardware, where the failure of sealed cooling systems or protective enclosures could lead to catastrophic thermal failures. Together, these isotopes provide the material precision and operational security required to reduce the total cost of ownership for data centers while enabling the reliable scaling of the world's most advanced computing technologies.

List of Isotopes associated with Atomic Alchemy:

More in the Tight Spreads substack

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 10:40

Bipartisan FY26 Minibus Released As January 30th Shutdown Approaches

Zero Hedge -

Bipartisan FY26 Minibus Released As January 30th Shutdown Approaches

It seems that Congress may bypass our regularly scheduled shutdown drama - as House appropriators released the text of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 early Monday, marking a significant step toward completing all 12 annual spending bills ahead of the January 30 funding deadline and averting another government shutdown. The package reflects a rare point of bipartisan convergence on topline funding - even as Republicans and Democrats frame the deal in sharply different political terms.

The legislation packages conference agreements covering Defense; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; Transportation, Housing and Urban Development; and Homeland Security, though GOP leaders have committed to moving the Homeland bill separately. Together, the three-bill minibus released Monday totals roughly $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending, according to Democratic appropriators.

Punchbowl News' John Bresnahan has summarized a few key provisions:

  • FEMA gets a big increase, $4.7 billion.

  • $28 billion-plus for ICE & CPB. This includes nearly $4B for “custody operations to bolster the Trump Administration’s efforts to detain and deport all criminal and removable aliens.”

  • $744 million in Homeland Security bill for “the transportation and removal of every alien who no longer has a legal basis to remain in this country.”

  • $2.6B for Homeland Security Investigations

  • $273 million in earmarks in FEMA

  • Keeps in place HUD layoffs, about 24% of staff.

  • $3.8 billion in earmarks in THUD bill

Republicans on the House Appropriations Committee cast the agreement as proof that Congress can complete its work without relying on year-end omnibus packages. Chairman Tom Cole said the deal reflects “a deliberate, member-driven process” that delivers full-year funding aligned with the Trump administration’s priorities while keeping spending below levels projected under the current continuing resolution.

“America has always been a nation of builders,” Cole said, arguing the bills reinforce military readiness, border security, education, health systems and transportation infrastructure while applying fiscal discipline. GOP leaders emphasized that the measures were negotiated on a bipartisan, bicameral basis and described the package as advancing an “America First” agenda centered on defense, innovation and domestic security.

The Defense title includes funding increases for military pay, investments in weapons systems and industrial supply chains, and research and development accounts aimed at accelerating next-generation capabilities. Homeland Security provisions emphasize enforcement, border operations and emergency preparedness, while maintaining longstanding riders barring housing assistance for undocumented immigrants and preserving restrictions related to abortion and livestock transportation.

Labor-HHS-Education funding, according to Republicans, prioritizes biomedical research, workforce training and rural health care, while Transportation and Housing provisions focus on air traffic control modernization, infrastructure safety and economic development assistance for local communities.

Democrats, however, described the agreement as a rebuke of the Trump administration’s budget proposals rather than an endorsement of them.

“This latest funding package continues Congress’s forceful rejection of extreme cuts to federal programs proposed by the Trump Administration,” said House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro. She said Democrats and Republicans jointly rejected proposals to eliminate or sharply reduce funding for federal health, education and housing programs, instead sustaining or increasing funding in several areas.

The bill includes a ban on any new border crossing fees, which DHS cannot even study. 

DeLauro highlighted increased funding for the National Institutes of Health, investments in transportation infrastructure, and expanded resources for affordable housing and homelessness assistance. She said the housing provisions would prevent millions of households from losing housing while also supporting new construction.

Regarding ICE funding, DeLauro said: "I understand that many of my Democratic colleagues may be dissatisfied with any bill that funds ICE. I share their frustration with the out-of-control agency. I encourage my colleagues to review the bill and determine what is best for their constituents and communities."

"The Homeland Security funding bill is more than just ICE. If we allow a lapse in funding, TSA agents will be forced to work without pay, FEMA assistance could be delayed, and the U.S. Coast Guard will be adversely affected. All while ICE continues functioning without any change in their operations due to $75 billion it received in the One Big Beautiful Bill. A continuing resolution will jettison the guardrails we have secured while ceding authority to President Trump, Stephen Miller, and Secretary Noem."

The package also includes a pay raise for service members and funding increases for national security priorities - points of overlap that helped unlock bipartisan agreement despite deep philosophical differences over the role of federal spending.

Both parties emphasized the importance of completing full-year appropriations before the end of January, after years of stopgap funding measures that lawmakers from both sides say undermine agency planning and oversight. Republicans framed the deal as a break from what they described as “rushed, Christmas omnibuses,” while Democrats emphasized Congress’s role in reasserting its constitutional power of the purse.

The remaining point of contention is procedural rather than substantive: House Republicans have pledged to hold a separate vote on the Homeland Security bill, decoupling it from the current minibus even as the text has already been negotiated.

Still, with conference agreements finalized and leadership on both sides publicly backing the deal, the FY26 funding package appears on track for floor action later this week — setting Congress up to clear one of its most consequential must-pass items before the end of the month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 10:20

1956 & 2026: Bookends For Europe?

Zero Hedge -

1956 & 2026: Bookends For Europe?

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

As our senior strategist Ben Picton underlined yesterday, the US has total escalatory dominance in its clash with the EU over Greenland, which all emotions aside, is not in the EU or even in Europe: geographically, it’s in the Western Hemisphere / North America.

There is no field where the EU can hurt the US more than it hurts itself. In trade - it’s a net exporter; in tech - it uses US systems in the absence of its own; in energy - it now relies on US LNG, not Russian; in finance – it’s deeply interwoven into the Eurodollar system, which the US controls; and in defence - it still needs the US in Ukraine, and NATO, and can’t defend itself, nor Greenland… and certainly not from the US. This is not to be provocative, just to look at raw facts.

Europe may talk about using its trade ‘bazooka’ Anti-Coercion Instrument, but it seems unlikely to do so. Ironically, it’s too powerful, so would unleash too awful a retaliation. In this respect there’s a parallel to nuclear weapons, which France possesses independently of the US. Military strategists point out it’s also critical to have conventional capabilities at every level of the escalatory ladder, which Europe doesn’t, because otherwise every conflict either ends in nuclear war or defeat.

One must consider such thoughts when reacting to headlines like Denmark dispatching additional troops to Greenland. If, and it still seems extremely unlikely, the US were to take the world’s largest island by force, it would be over in the same timeframe it took to seize Venezuela’s Maduro. The idea of an EU-US war is of course ridiculous. Yet so are all Europe’s other geostrategic ‘options’. Is it going to strike a defence deal with Canada, which can’t defend itself? Or will it pivot to China, which implies embracing its own deindustrialisation and abandoning Ukraine/reaccepting Russia? The former would greatly irritate the US to no end effect for Europe. The latter would make the US an EU opponent in a way that dwarfs Greenland.

Logically, the EU --through clenched teeth-- is likely to be forced to concede once a facesaving deal can be struck. Wolfgang Munchau argues the same via UnHerd stating: “So here is my bold prediction: Trump will win his battle for Greenland. The Europeans will not stop him, for they are weak and divided. The irony is that the EU chose this military and geostrategic weakness.” Some talk of Europe then upping its efforts towards strategic autonomy. If so, Stefan Auer argues either EU power needs to be pushed up to Brussels or back down to the member states, as the current structure cannot react fast or decisively enough in the geopolitical context. Even if either were achieved, the economic costs of the changes required are staggering: neomercantilism, not ‘we like free trade’ Merkelcantilism, and a near-war economy starting from large budget deficits and high public debt. Even if those obstacles were overcome, such steps would cause huge frictions with the US, which wants Europe to be a subordinate part of its neomercantilist bloc, not independent. The US would step in as the EU flag was being woven, let alone unfurled. In short, the logical path of least resistance, and damage, still flows back to concession.

For Europe, 2026 may well be seen by historians as a bookend to 1956. Then, the UK and France tried to show they were still Great Powers by sending their armies to Egypt after President Nasser had nationalised the Suez Canal. The US opposed the action and, using economic statecraft, caused a major run on both Sterling and the French Franc. Both countries were forced to retreat and accept they would only be supporting actors to the US on the world stage.

2026 sees the US join other powers in using realpolitik statecraft in its own national interests, as the UK and France did in 1956, even when it makes Europe look like Egypt. This shatters Europe’s view of itself as being an equal, if junior, partner in a joint enterprise, not just on Ukraine, but globally. Indeed, some are now using the words “vassal” or “client states” even as Brussels clings to the liberal world order like a shipwreck survivor to a plank of wood.

But does that actually move markets if we don’t see a shooting war over Greenland, nor an EUUS trade war?

As the Wall Street Journal puts it today, ‘Trump Wants Greenland. Markets Don’t Know What to Make of That: New world order may be so hard to imagine that investors just ignore it.’

Let me help with some ‘imagineering,’ as the Americans call it:

1. Greenland is just a symptom of the end of the liberal world order we’ve been warning of for over a decade. It’s important to focus on for Europe, but the logical outcome, assuming that emotions do not rule, is one that doesn’t shake up markets too much for too long.

2. The end of the liberal world order doesn’t just mean the end of WTO paraphernalia: it means the end of Westphalia, the 1648 European treaty that established the principles of state sovereignty and shaped international relations until recently. That has vast market implications. It’s not good for countries without power, because there’s no international system to prop them up with rules.

3. There’s a fat tail risk of West failure if we were see a EU-US split. That would mean see huge swings in markets – and ironically it’s perhaps Europe’s weakness that might end up being its best card --“We might try to burn down the casino rather than keep playing.”-- if they can scare the US into thinking they really are prepared to burn themselves doing it.

Overall, lines on maps are going to move, as they did in the 19 th and 20th centuries. The new Trump Board of Peace is seen by some as an embryonic rival to the UN, not a group of technocrats to rebuild Gaza. Even Davos will this week echo to the thunder of Trumpian realpolitik, not its usual acronyms and technobabble. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink just warned attendees that, “Capitalism must evolve.” It is: back towards something we also saw more in parts of the 19th and 20th centuries, which were not very “Because markets!” in the way we see things now.

If lines on maps move, lines on screens will too.

The EU is applauding the EU-Mercosur trade deal: the US is applauding a $1.5bn deal to build a naval base in Peru near a Chinese-run port. Which will matter more in the long run for controlling trade flows – technocrats in committees talking tariffs and phytosanitary standards or those in uniform on the ground or at sea? That’s what markets shouldn’t ignore.

In short, markets are probably right to be relatively calm about Greenland headlines. Yet at the same time one should not ignore gold and silver soaring even higher, showing larger tectonic plates shifting.

Likewise, Japanese long bond yields are spiking again, if largely due to their own election-related dynamics, which the rest of the world is not immune to with a lag: the 40-year JGB yield just hit 4% for the first time since it was launched in 2007, for example.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 10:00

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