Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 
On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.5% YoY in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.2%). 
Core PCE is for September was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in August.  

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet - and some data is still delayed due to the government shutdown).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong.  As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020.
Here were my questions for 2025 (posted in December 2024).  The analysis for the housing related questions were posted in the newsletter, and the other questions on this blog.
10) Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

"“Time” will likely lead to more new listings in 2025. Mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and new listings will likely be depressed again in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2025. However, it still seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels."

This was correct on all points.

Here is a graph from Altos Research showing active single-family inventory through December 12, 2025.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 14% compared to the same week last year.
However, inventory is still below pre-pandemic normal levels. 
9) Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

"I don’t expect national inventory to reach 2019 levels but much of the remaining gap between 2019 and 2024 levels will likely close in 2025. If existing home sales remain fairly sluggish, we might see national months-of-supply above 5 months in mid-2025.

That would likely lead to mostly flat prices nationally in 2025. However, I expect some areas - with higher months-of-supply - will see price decline in 2025."

This was correct.

As of September, the National Case-Shiller index SA was up 1.3% year-over-year. (Case-Shiller for October will be released December 30th).

The FHFA index was up 1.7% YoY in September, and the Freddie Mac index was up 1.0% in October.
 The ICE HPI was up 0.8% in November.
Mostly flat prices year-over-year and no crash or surge in house prices in 2025.  

8) Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

"My guess is multi-family starts will decline further in 2025, likely down 5% or so year-over-year (less than the previous 2 years). Single family starts will likely be mostly unchanged year-over-year, putting total starts down slightly.

I expect New Home sales to be up around 5% YoY."

NOTE: The most recent data is for August due to the government shutdown, so this is very uncertain.
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

As of August, single family starts were down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2023.  Single family starts were a little weaker than expected.
Multi-family starts were up 17.5% YTD (much stronger than expected).
Total starts were up 0.7% YTD.

The next graph shows new home sales as of August (Sales reports for September, October and November have not been scheduled yet).

New home sales were down 1.4% YTD through August. 
This is still very unclear.  
I expect multifamily starts to be weaker later in the year (rents remain under pressure, and architects have reported weak billings for multifamily for 40 consecutive months.
7) Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?

"Clearly wage growth is slowing and I expect to see some further decreases in both the Average hourly earnings from the CES, and in the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.  My sense is nominal wages will increase close to mid-to-high 3% range YoY in 2025 according to the CES."

This was correct.
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Excluding the pandemic spike, wage growth peaked at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and declined to 3.5% in November 2025.
6) Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

"With inflation still above target over the last 6 months, my guess is there will be 1 or 2 rate cuts in 2025."

There were 3 rate cuts in 2025 with the Fed Funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in December 20254. 

5) Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?

"In general, I'm ignoring policy changes ... tariffs could be implemented quickly and depending on the policy this could push up the inflation rate.

My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2025 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2025."

This data has also been delayed.  
According to the September Personal Income and Outlays report released in early December, the September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year, and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent year-over-year. 

4) Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?

"Since almost all of the workers impacted by the pandemic have returned to the labor force, demographics will be the key driver of the participation rate in 2025 (barring some unseen event).  Demographics will be pushing the participation rate down over the next decade, so, my guess is the participation rate will decline to around 62.2% in December 2025."

The Labor Force Participation Rate was at 62.5% in November.
The participation rate dipped to 62.2% in July, but bounced back some at the end of the year.
This is down from the post pandemic peak of 62.8%.
The decline from demographics (retiring baby boomers) is now pushing down the rate, however, not as much as I expected.
3) Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?

"My guess is the unemployment rate will decline to 4% or so by December 2025.  (Lower than the FOMC forecast of 4.2% to 4.5%)."

The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November (the FOMC beat me on this one!).  Policy has been more negative for unemployment than I expected.

2) Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?

"So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million jobs in 2025.  This will probably be the slowest job growth since 2010 (excluding the 2020 pandemic job losses)."

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Through November the economy has added 610 thousand jobs in 2025, well below my guess.
Policy has been negative for employment in 2025.

1) Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

"Looking at 2025, a recession is mostly off the table. ... GDP growth is a combination of labor force growth and productivity. Productivity varies and is difficult to predict, but the labor force growth will likely be sluggish in 2025.  So, my guess is that real annual GDP growth will be less than most expect, perhaps around 1.5% in 2025."

We still do not have the GDP release for Q3.
I was correct about no recession, but growth will likely be closer to 2.0% or so in 2025.

For the most part, the economy evolved as expected in 2025. Policy impacted employment and unemployment more than I expected.

SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.
Services were up 3.2% YoY as of November 2025, down from 3.6% YoY in September.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in September..
The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.
Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.5% YoY as of November 2025, down from 1.8% YoY in September.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.4% YoY in November, down from 1.5% YoY in September.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through September)

Shelter was up 3.0% year-over-year in November, down from 3.6% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 3.4% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August.
This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).
Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.3% YoY in November, down from 2.6% YoY in September.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 217,500.

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in November, unchanged from October’s preliminary pace and down 1.7% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this November’s lower business-day count relative to last November.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report November existing home sales on Friday. The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million in October.

There is much more in the article.

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score over 50 indicates billings growth). This marked the 13th consecutive month of declining billings at architecture firms, and the 35th month of a score below 50 out of the last 38. Inquiries into new projects only increased modestly this month, and the value of newly signed design contracts continued to soften. Until work in the pipeline starts to pick back up, firms are unlikely to see a significant increase in their billings.

While business conditions at architecture firms have been soft in most sectors this year, the Midwest remained a bright spot in November. Billings increased at firms located in that region for the third consecutive month, and more firms reported growth this month than last month. However, billings continued to decline at firms located in all other regions of the country, particularly at firms located in the Northeast and the West. Firms of all specializations also saw billings continue to contract in November, although fewer firms with multifamily residential and institutional specializations reported declines than last month.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (43.1); Midwest (52.3); South (46.1); West (43.6)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (45.2); institutional (47.6); multifamily residential (46.6)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.3 in November, down from 47.6 in October.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 36 of the last 38 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 40 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

First, California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory. From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales reach three-year high in November, C.A.R. reports

Sales increased 1.9 percent from October, rising from 282,590 to 287,940 in November. Compared with a year earlier, November sales were up 2.6 percent from a revised 280,530.

In November, sales in these markets were down 7.1% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 1.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.38 percent from 6.33 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in September and will likely be about the same year-over-year in the October report compared to September (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 4.0%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.8%, in May up 2.3%, in June up 1.9% in July up 1.6%, August up 1.6% and in September up 1.3% (a steady decline in the YoY change).

And the September Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in July, August and September. July closing prices include some contracts signed in May. So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent from October 2024. ... The August 2025 to September 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.6% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in October were below expectations and the previous two months were revised down.
A weak report.

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
Earlier: November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in October. 
Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 5.49 million from 4.58 million in September.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and the highest levels since mid-2021.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.7% from 8.0% in September. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.91 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.81 million in September.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program).  The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
This was a weak employment report.  

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 22,000, from -4,000 to -26,000, and the change for September was revised down by 11,000, from +119,000 to +108,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported. Due to the recent federal government shutdown, this is the first publication of October data and thus there are no revisions for October this month.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 64 thousand in November.  Private payrolls increased by 697 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 5 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 6 thousand).

Payrolls for August and September were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy has only added 100 thousand jobs since April (7 months).
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 0.03 million jobs.  
Year-over-year employment growth has slowed sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.5% in November, from 62.4% in September (no October data). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was decreased to 59.6% from 59.7% in September (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September.  

This was sligthly above consensus expectations, however, August and September payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined - and the initial October estimate was -105,000.
Overall another weak report, although there are technical issues that likely make this data less accurate due to government shutdown.
I'll have more later ...

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that's been intact since early September. ... If unemployment comes in lower than expected, rates would likely face upward pressure, potentially challenging the upper boundary of the recent range. On the other hand, a weaker/higher result should keep rates well within the range, perhaps near the lower boundary. [30 year fixed 6.29%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-December provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Note that we are still missing some key pieces of data due to the government shutdown, such as housing starts and new home sales.

The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure, although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales since most homeowners have substantial equity and low mortgage rates. It now appears likely that existing home prices will be mostly unchanged year-over-year nationally by the end of 2025.

Realtor.com reports in the November 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 1.7% year-over-year in November. And active listings were up 12.6% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in November, as the number of actively listed homes rose 12.6% compared to the same time last year. While this marks the 25th consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains, active listing growth has slowed in each of the past six months (down from ~30% peak YoY growth in May and June). The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the seventh consecutive month and remains close to midsummer levels. Still, nationwide November inventory is 11.7% below typical 2017–19 levels.

There is much more in the article.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, up from 38 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 39 in December.

Here are the readings for the three HMI indices in December:

• Current sales conditions increased one point to 42.

• Sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 52.

• Traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 26.

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported cutting prices in December, marking the second consecutive month the share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. It was 41% in November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, down from the 6% rate in November. The use of sales incentives was 67% in December, the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for twenty consecutive months.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.3%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.1%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, however inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 12th, inventory was at 775 thousand (7-day average), compared to 795 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube