Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET The initial weekly unemployment claims report will NOT be released.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

A brief excerpt:

The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

There is much more in the article.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to $18.59 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion. Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion. Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion. Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion. In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025.

The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025. There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter. Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases. Transitions into serious delinquency mostly increased across debt types, although mortgages saw a slight decrease.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $197 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025Q2. Balances now stand at $18.59 trillion and have increased by $4.44 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the third quarter of 2025. The share of outstanding debt balances in some stage of delinquency was largely flat in 2025Q3; 4.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. 

There is much more in the report.

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.4%, up from 50.0% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.2%, up from 47.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.4% October 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector returned to expansion in October, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.4 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the 52.6 percent recorded in September and 0.7 percentage point below its 12-month average of 51.5 percent. This is the 11th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 70 percent in October, its first time at or above that threshold since a reading of 70.7 percent in October 2022. The October figure was a 0.6-percentage point increase from September’s reading of 69.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 11 straight months.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 5th consecutive month, and prices paid was high.

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 25,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week as Treasury yields moved slightly higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. The 30-year fixed rate was mostly unchanged at 6.31 percent and remained close to the lowest level in over a year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite a decline last week, refinance applications are still significantly higher than a year ago. The average loan size for refinance applications was at its highest level in six weeks, as borrowers with larger loans continued to seek ways to lower their monthly payments. Purchase applications declined slightly from a week ago, however, there was slight increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek loan options to help manage challenging affordability conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.31 percent from 6.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

Brief excerpt:

Some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below are tables showing single-family rent trends reported by Invitation Homes (INVH) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), two publicly traded companies in the single-family rental business.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income

Brief excerpt:

One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes.

Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).

And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measure of income.
...
This graph uses the year end Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income through 2024 from the Census Bureau. 2025 median income is estimated at a 4% annual gain.

By this measure, house prices are 3% below the bubble peak, and about 9% below the recent peak.

There is much more in the article.

Omdia reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.3 million in October on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). October US Light Vehicle Sales Decline 4.5% YoY; 15.3 Million SAAR Lowest in 15 Months (pay site)

Demand in October fell to a longtime low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million units as deliveries of battery-electric vehicles tanked and most segments recorded declines.

This was down 6.7% from the sales rate in September, and down 5% from October 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through October (red from Omdia).
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June. 
Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in October were below the consensus forecast of 15.5 million SAAR.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Rates in Just Over 3 Weeks

In terms of MND's 30yr fixed index, we're currently at 6.34% versus last week's low of 6.13%. Contrast that to rates just under 7% in June and 7.25% earlier this year. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
emphasis added

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

he October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2025.

Regarding loans to businesses over the third quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes.2 Banks also reported, on balance, stronger demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms and basically unchanged demand from small firms. Furthermore, banks reported generally unchanged standards and demand for most commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.

For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and stronger demand for residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) on balance. For consumer loans, standards remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and eased for auto loans. Meanwhile, demand remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and weakened for auto loans.

The October SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about the likelihood of approving C&I and credit card loan applications in comparison with the beginning of the year—by firm size and trade exposure levels for C&I loans and by borrower risk for credit card loans. Banks reported being more likely to approve C&I loan applications from both large and small firms with low trade exposures and less likely to approve C&I loan applications from firms of all sizes with high trade exposures. Banks also reported being more likely to approve credit card applications from super-prime and prime borrowers but less likely to approve applications from near-prime or subprime borrowers.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021, but has picked up slightly recently.
The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.  The right graph is from 2015 to Q3 2025.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.9% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in October, and now stands at $1,381. This was the third consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines to close out the year.

Realtor.com: 26th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

September 2025 marks the 26th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in October, down from 49.1% in September. The employment index was at 46.0%, up from 45.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.4%, up from 48.9%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7% October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 17.9%), and down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.5%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of October 31st, inventory was at 857 thousand (7-day average), compared to 868 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

• At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 11 and DOW futures are up 58 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $60.98 per barrel and Brent at $64.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $70, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 13% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.06 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.06 year-over-year.

Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On October 31, 2025, LBR was at $539.50 per 1,000 board feet, down 3% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key (missing) report this week is the October employment report.

Other key indicators include October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 3rd -----
0:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.5million SAAR, down from 16.4 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, November 4th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, November 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Thursday, November 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

----- Friday, November 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [October 31st estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

we estimate that GDP has grown about 2.2% annualized so far this year and 3.3% in Q3. [October 15th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on October 27, unchanged from October 16 after rounding. After last Thursday’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast for third-quarter annualized real residential investment growth increased from -4.6 percent to -4.4 percent.[October 27th estimate]