Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. For example, we are still missing housing starts and new home sales for September, October and November.
The key economic report this week is Q3 GDP.

----- Monday, December 22nd -----
8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 75.9%.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.


----- Wednesday, December 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225,000 initial claims, up from 224,000 last week.

The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

----- Thursday, December 25th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Christmas Holiday.

----- Friday, December 26th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices

Excerpt:

While today’s existing homes sales report from the National Association of Realtors didn’t contain many surprises, an exception was in the reported median existing home sales prices. The NAR report showed that the median existing home sales price (total and single-family) in November was up just 1.2% from a year earlier, well below both consensus and what local realtor/MLS data would have suggested. The source of this surprise was in the Northeast, where the NAR’s median existing home sales price estimate was up just 1.1% from last November, and the median existing single-family home sales price estimate was up only 0.9% YOY. Such an anemic gain was completely inconsistent with state realtor data from the Northeast, as the table below shows.

There is much more in the article.

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were down 1.0% year-over-year compared to November 2024. The last month of 2025 will have a difficult year-over-year comparison.
...
Year-to-date, sales are down 0.5% compared to last year - and 2024 was the lowest level of sales since 1995! Sales this year will be close to last year.

Will this be the lowest level of sales in 30 years? Maybe. But there was one more working day in December this year compared to last year, so sales in 2025 might beat 2024.

There is much more in the article.

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.5% Increase in November

Month-over-month

• 0.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in November

• 5.9% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.43 million units equal to 4.2 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.0% decrease in existing-home sales

• 1.2% increase in median existing-home sales price to $409,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in November (4.13 million SAAR) were up 0.5% from the previous month and were down 1.0% compared to the November 2024 sales rate.  
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.43 million in November from 1.52 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 7.5% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.2 months in November from 4.4 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 December

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 December. ...

7-13 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 58.6% (-1.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.46 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.76 (-1.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 
On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.1% (down from 3.5% YoY in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.2%). 
Core PCE is for September was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in August.  

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet - and some data is still delayed due to the government shutdown).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong.  As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020.
Here were my questions for 2025 (posted in December 2024).  The analysis for the housing related questions were posted in the newsletter, and the other questions on this blog.
10) Question #10 for 2025: Will inventory increase further in 2025?

"“Time” will likely lead to more new listings in 2025. Mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and new listings will likely be depressed again in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2025. However, it still seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels."

This was correct on all points.

Here is a graph from Altos Research showing active single-family inventory through December 12, 2025.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 14% compared to the same week last year.
However, inventory is still below pre-pandemic normal levels. 
9) Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

"I don’t expect national inventory to reach 2019 levels but much of the remaining gap between 2019 and 2024 levels will likely close in 2025. If existing home sales remain fairly sluggish, we might see national months-of-supply above 5 months in mid-2025.

That would likely lead to mostly flat prices nationally in 2025. However, I expect some areas - with higher months-of-supply - will see price decline in 2025."

This was correct.

As of September, the National Case-Shiller index SA was up 1.3% year-over-year. (Case-Shiller for October will be released December 30th).

The FHFA index was up 1.7% YoY in September, and the Freddie Mac index was up 1.0% in October.
 The ICE HPI was up 0.8% in November.
Mostly flat prices year-over-year and no crash or surge in house prices in 2025.  

8) Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

"My guess is multi-family starts will decline further in 2025, likely down 5% or so year-over-year (less than the previous 2 years). Single family starts will likely be mostly unchanged year-over-year, putting total starts down slightly.

I expect New Home sales to be up around 5% YoY."

NOTE: The most recent data is for August due to the government shutdown, so this is very uncertain.
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

As of August, single family starts were down 4.9% year-to-date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2023.  Single family starts were a little weaker than expected.
Multi-family starts were up 17.5% YTD (much stronger than expected).
Total starts were up 0.7% YTD.

The next graph shows new home sales as of August (Sales reports for September, October and November have not been scheduled yet).

New home sales were down 1.4% YTD through August. 
This is still very unclear.  
I expect multifamily starts to be weaker later in the year (rents remain under pressure, and architects have reported weak billings for multifamily for 40 consecutive months.
7) Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?

"Clearly wage growth is slowing and I expect to see some further decreases in both the Average hourly earnings from the CES, and in the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker.  My sense is nominal wages will increase close to mid-to-high 3% range YoY in 2025 according to the CES."

This was correct.
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Excluding the pandemic spike, wage growth peaked at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and declined to 3.5% in November 2025.
6) Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

"With inflation still above target over the last 6 months, my guess is there will be 1 or 2 rate cuts in 2025."

There were 3 rate cuts in 2025 with the Fed Funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in December 20254. 

5) Question #5 for 2025: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2025?

"In general, I'm ignoring policy changes ... tariffs could be implemented quickly and depending on the policy this could push up the inflation rate.

My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2025 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2025."

This data has also been delayed.  
According to the September Personal Income and Outlays report released in early December, the September PCE price index increased 2.8 percent year-over-year, and the September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent year-over-year. 

4) Question #4 for 2025: What will the participation rate be in December 2025?

"Since almost all of the workers impacted by the pandemic have returned to the labor force, demographics will be the key driver of the participation rate in 2025 (barring some unseen event).  Demographics will be pushing the participation rate down over the next decade, so, my guess is the participation rate will decline to around 62.2% in December 2025."

The Labor Force Participation Rate was at 62.5% in November.
The participation rate dipped to 62.2% in July, but bounced back some at the end of the year.
This is down from the post pandemic peak of 62.8%.
The decline from demographics (retiring baby boomers) is now pushing down the rate, however, not as much as I expected.
3) Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?

"My guess is the unemployment rate will decline to 4% or so by December 2025.  (Lower than the FOMC forecast of 4.2% to 4.5%)."

The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November (the FOMC beat me on this one!).  Policy has been more negative for unemployment than I expected.

2) Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs?

"So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million jobs in 2025.  This will probably be the slowest job growth since 2010 (excluding the 2020 pandemic job losses)."

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Through November the economy has added 610 thousand jobs in 2025, well below my guess.
Policy has been negative for employment in 2025.

1) Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

"Looking at 2025, a recession is mostly off the table. ... GDP growth is a combination of labor force growth and productivity. Productivity varies and is difficult to predict, but the labor force growth will likely be sluggish in 2025.  So, my guess is that real annual GDP growth will be less than most expect, perhaps around 1.5% in 2025."

We still do not have the GDP release for Q3.
I was correct about no recession, but growth will likely be closer to 2.0% or so in 2025.

For the most part, the economy evolved as expected in 2025. Policy impacted employment and unemployment more than I expected.

SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs.
Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.
Services were up 3.2% YoY as of November 2025, down from 3.6% YoY in September.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in September..
The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.
Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.5% YoY as of November 2025, down from 1.8% YoY in September.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.4% YoY in November, down from 1.5% YoY in September.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through November) and housing from the PCE report (through September)

Shelter was up 3.0% year-over-year in November, down from 3.6% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 3.4% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August.
This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).
Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.3% YoY in November, down from 2.6% YoY in September.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 217,500.

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the same 2-month period and the food index increased 0.1 percent. Other indexes which increased over the 2 months ending in November include household furnishings and operations, communication, and personal care. In contrast, the indexes for lodging away from home, recreation, and apparel decreased over the same 2-month period.

The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in November, unchanged from October’s preliminary pace and down 1.7% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this November’s lower business-day count relative to last November.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 1.9% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report November existing home sales on Friday. The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million in October.

There is much more in the article.

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score over 50 indicates billings growth). This marked the 13th consecutive month of declining billings at architecture firms, and the 35th month of a score below 50 out of the last 38. Inquiries into new projects only increased modestly this month, and the value of newly signed design contracts continued to soften. Until work in the pipeline starts to pick back up, firms are unlikely to see a significant increase in their billings.

While business conditions at architecture firms have been soft in most sectors this year, the Midwest remained a bright spot in November. Billings increased at firms located in that region for the third consecutive month, and more firms reported growth this month than last month. However, billings continued to decline at firms located in all other regions of the country, particularly at firms located in the Northeast and the West. Firms of all specializations also saw billings continue to contract in November, although fewer firms with multifamily residential and institutional specializations reported declines than last month.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (43.1); Midwest (52.3); South (46.1); West (43.6)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (45.2); institutional (47.6); multifamily residential (46.6)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.3 in November, down from 47.6 in October.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 36 of the last 38 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 40 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

First, California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory. From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales reach three-year high in November, C.A.R. reports

Sales increased 1.9 percent from October, rising from 282,590 to 287,940 in November. Compared with a year earlier, November sales were up 2.6 percent from a revised 280,530.

In November, sales in these markets were down 7.1% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 1.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.38 percent from 6.33 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but solidly above the lows of 2023 and above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined, but is down from the recent peak in September.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply (almost back to pre-pandemic levels), and sales are depressed and tracking last year (sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in September and will likely be about the same year-over-year in the October report compared to September (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 4.0%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.8%, in May up 2.3%, in June up 1.9% in July up 1.6%, August up 1.6% and in September up 1.3% (a steady decline in the YoY change).

And the September Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in July, August and September. July closing prices include some contracts signed in May. So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, and up 3.5 percent from October 2024. ... The August 2025 to September 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.1% in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.6% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in October were below expectations and the previous two months were revised down.
A weak report.

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program). The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
Earlier: November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.5% YoY in November, down from 3.7% YoY in October. 
Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 5.49 million from 4.58 million in September.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and the highest levels since mid-2021.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.7% from 8.0% in September. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.91 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.81 million in September.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was slightly above expectations, however August and September were revised down by 33,000 - and the initial October report indicates 105,000 job lost (mostly Federal Government jobs lost due to DOGE deferred resignation program).  The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%.
This was a weak employment report.