The Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, August 12th. 
The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.33% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.08% (vs. +3.0% consensus). We expect a 0.27% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.3%) but lower energy prices (-0.6%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.31% increase in core PCE in July.
...
Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly core CPI inflation between 0.3-0.4%. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets.

From BofA:

We forecast headline CPI rose by 0.24% m/m in July, and core CPI increased by 0.31% m/m. If correct, core CPI would increase to 3.1% y/y from 2.9%. Tariffs likely drove an acceleration in goods price hikes despite further declines in vehicle prices. Meanwhile, a rise in airfares should contribute to an uptick in core services ex housing inflation.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled area is the change for last July.   CPI was up 0.14% in July 2024, and core CPI was up 0.19%.  So, anything above those readings for July will push up year-over-year inflation.  
Starting this month, the tariff related inflation is expected to kick in.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease

• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026?

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key reports this week are July CPI and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, the August NY Fed survey, and the July Industrial Production report will be released.

----- Monday, August 11th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, August 12th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.8% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.0% YoY.

----- Wednesday, August 13th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 14th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 228 thousand from 226 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, August 15th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline)

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 5.5.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.6%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August)

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Rail volumes are holding up, indicating goods movement remains resilient despite the headwinds. Looking ahead, though, sustained pressure on labor markets and consumer demand could eventually weigh on freight activity.
emphasis added

U.S. rail intermodal shipments rebounded in July, rising 2.4% over last year and reversing a 2.9% decline in June (intermodal’s first year-over-year decline in 22 months). In July 2025, intermodal originations averaged 270,175 units per week, the second most ever for July (behind July 2018).

Meanwhile, U.S. total carloads rose 4.6% in July 2025 over July 2024, their fifth straight increase. In July, 15 of the 20 carload categories tracked by the AAR saw gains, the most since December 2023. Total carloads averaged 224,568 per week in July 2025, the most for July since 2019. In 2025 through July, total carloads were up 2.8%, or nearly 186,000 carloads, over last year.

This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On August 8, 2025, LBR was at $652.50 per 1,000 board feet, up 24% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

From BofA:

Next week, we will initiate our 3Q GDP tracker ... [August 8th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

[W]e boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at -0.1%. [August 7th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.76 percentage points to 0.82 percentage points. [August 7th estimate]

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, 6.82% in May and 6.82% in June (somewhat higher than for closed sales in June).

In July, sales in these early reporting markets were up 0.9% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 0.9% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Aug. 2

• Active inventory climbed 22.8% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 22.8% year over year, slightly lower than the previous week for the seventh consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 91st consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 13th week in a row over the million-listing threshold and the highest inventory level since late 2019. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 1.5% year over year

New listings rose just 1.5% last week compared with the same period last year. This marks another slowdown compared with the previous week, in which new listings grew by 5% year over year. Homeowners are less eager to get into the market as inventory continues to build and buyers keep to the sidelines.

• The median list price grew 0.8% year over year

The median list price grew slightly (0.8%) compared with the same week in 2024. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.4% year over year, continuing its nearly two-year growth streak. However, with price-per-square-foot growth slightly lagging overall price growth, it seems that the trend toward more small, affordable homes for sale is stabilizing.

With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 putting downward pressure on house prices in an increasing number of areas.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 August. ...

27 July through 2 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 69.5% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.00 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.90 (+0.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will likely start to decrease seasonally.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in July

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.4, which is still an increase of 2.9% from a year ago, while lower than June levels by 0.5%. The seasonal adjustment muted the results for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values overall fell more than usual for the month. The non-adjusted price in July decreased 1.4% compared to June, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 3.0% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in July (seasonally adjusted) and were up 2.9% YoY.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 221,000 to 221,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 220,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.
In early April, I went on recession watch, but I'm still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.
In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy.  However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching - especially immigration.

Here is some of the data I'm watching.  
Housing:  Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.
This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau.  Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are down 8% year-over-year.
Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.  An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.   Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.  I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.  Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.
The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.  But as I noted earlier, I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates.
There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.
Yield Curve: The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator.  I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).
Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976. The yield curve reverted to normal a year ago and is currently positive at 0.5.  If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.
Click here for interactive graph at FRED.
Heavy Truck (and Vehicle Sales): Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.  This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the July 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
Heavy truck sales were at 455 thousand SAAR in July, up from 443 thousand in June, and down 12.0% from 517 thousand SAAR in July 2024.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales have been a little soft recently.
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".  Then sales were depressed in May and June.
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.   This is more of a concurrent indicator than heavy trucks. 
Light vehicle sales in July (16.41 million SAAR) were up 7.1% from the sales rate in June, and up 3.7% from July 2024
Unemployment: Two other concurrent indicators are the unemployment rate (using the "Sahm Rule") and weekly unemployment claims.
Here is a graph of the Sahm rule from FRED since 1959.

The Sahm Rule was at 0.13 percentage points in July. 
 If this increases to 0.5 it will suggest a possible recession.
Note that this increased to 0.56 in August 2024, but Dr. Sahm (and I) argued this was not indicating a recession.

And weekly unemployment claims always rise sharply at the beginning of a recession (other events - like hurricane Katrina - can cause a temporary spike in weekly claims).
As I noted earlier, I'm not sure how to estimate the economic damage caused by these tariffs and other policies.   The economy is clearly slowing due to policy.
There are also boycotts of U.S. goods and less international tourism based on both the tariffs and the inflammatory rhetoric of the current administration.  
None of these indicators are suggesting a recession.  For now, I'll focus on the leading indicators (especially housing) and I'll update this post monthly while I'm on recession watch.  

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.8% Year-over-year ...

The national multifamily vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% this month, setting a new record for our index. We're past the peak of a multifamily construction surge, but the market is still absorbing all of the new units, and vacancies are still trending up.

Realtor.com: 23rd Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

June 2025 marks the 23rd straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties observed since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

This is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 1, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy. As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Borrowers sought to take advantage of these lower rates, as both purchase and refinance applications increased over the week. Purchase activity continued to lead 2024’s pace, as increasing for-sale inventory of homes has been supporting homebuying, but on the other hand recent weakness in the economic environment has deterred some prospective homebuyers.”

Added Kan, “Refinance applications increased to their strongest pace in four weeks after being on a downward trend the prior three weeks. The refinance share increased to almost 42 percent, its highest level since April.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.77 percent from 6.83 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 18% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased and is picking up a little with lower mortgage rates.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — August 2025

The end of the 2025 spring homebuyers season ended softly, with slower price growth dominating the narrative and potentially opening the door to more buyers.

• Year-over-year price growth dipped to 1.7% in June 2025 and is now well below the rate of inflation and signals that real prices may be becoming slightly more affordable.

• Seasonal increases in home prices continue to be weak, up 0.1% compared to the month before, which is the slowest June monthly increase since 2008.

• West Virginia saw prices rise 5.5% year-over-year, entering the top 5 states with the highest home price growth. The full list includes Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Illinois, all of which continue to record more than triple the national rate of price growth.

• Florida, Texas, Montana, and Washington, D.C. reported negative home price growth.
emphasis added

This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.
The list is dominated by Florida and Texas.  According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.
House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease

A brief excerpt:

The NY Fed released the Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.

Note: The Liberty Street Economics blog today focused on “borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography”.

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

There is much more in the article.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Growth Remains Steady; Auto Loan Originations Pick Up

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $185 billion (1%) in Q2 2025, to $18.39 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post analyzing borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography.

“This quarter’s flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and auto loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly,” said Joelle Scally, Economic Policy Advisor at the New York Fed. “Despite the recent uptick in mortgage delinquency, overall mortgage performance remains strong by historical standards.”

Mortgage balances grew by $131 billion in the second quarter and totaled $12.94 trillion at the end of June 2025. Credit card balances rose by $27 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.21 trillion. Auto loan balances also increased by $13 billion and totaled $1.66 trillion. HELOC balances rose by $9 billion to $411 billion, representing the thirteenth consecutive quarterly increase. Student loan balances edged up by $7 billion and stood at $1.64 trillion. In total, non-housing balances rose by $45 billion, a 0.9% increase from Q1 2025.

The pace of mortgage originations increased slightly, with $458 billion newly originated mortgages in Q2 2025. There were $188 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the second quarter, an increase from the $166 billion observed in the first quarter of 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $78 billion, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter.

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the second quarter, with 4.4% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types except for student loans. Student loans saw another uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans. Transitions into serious delinquency were mixed across debt types: auto loans and credit card debt were largely stable, mortgages and HELOCs edged up slightly, and student loans rose sharply.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q2.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $185 billion in the second quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025Q1. Balances now stand at $18.39 trillion and have increased by $4.24 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q1.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the second quarter of 2025. As of the end of June, 4.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, which is 0.1 percentage point higher than the first quarter. Transition into early delinquency held steady for nearly all debt types; the exception was for student loans, which saw another uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent due to the resumption of reporting of delinquent student loans on credit reports after a nearly 5-year pause due to the pandemic. Transition rates into serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, were largely stable for auto loans and credit cards; edged up slightly for mortgages and HELOCs; and rose sharply for student loans.

There is much more in the report.

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.1%, down from 50.8% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.4%, from 47.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50.1% July 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the second consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® indicated expansion at 50.1 percent, above the 50-percent breakeven point for the 12th time in the last 13 months.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In July, the Services PMI® registered 50.1 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the June figure of 50.8 percent but in expansion territory for the second month in a row. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion in July, registering 52.6 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.2 percent recorded in June. This index has not been in contraction territory since May 2020. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion territory in July, recording a reading of 50.3 percent, a drop of 1 percentage point from the June figure of 51.3 percent. The Employment Index was in contraction territory for the second month in a row and the fourth time in the last five months; the reading of 46.4 percent is 0.8 percentage point lower than the 47.2 percent recorded in June.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than the 50.3 percent recorded in June. This is the eighth consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 69.9 percent in July, a 2.4-percentage point increase from June’s reading of 67.5 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for eight straight months, with July’s reading the highest since October 2022 (70.7 percent).
emphasis added

This was well below consensus expectations, and employment was very weak, and prices paid high.