Calculated Risk

Trade Deficit increased to $71.5 Billion in May

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.5 billion in May, up $11.3 billion from $60.3 billion in April, revised.

May exports were $279.0 billion, $11.6 billion less than April exports. May imports were $350.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than April imports.
emphasis added
U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Exports and imports decreased in May.

Exports were up 5.3% year-over-year; imports were up 3.3% year-over-year.
Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $13.9 billion from $23.7 billion a year ago.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 233,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 245,000 to 245,250.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 241,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

Comments on June Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined.     The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%.
NOTE: State and local government hiring was reported at 63.5 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted).  On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, 542.4 thousand education jobs lost.  This happens every June.   However, this year fewer jobs were lost than expected resulting in the large SA gain.  It is possible this is just a timing issue and more than expected educators will be let go in July.

Earlier: June Employment Report: 147 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in June to 83.5% from 83.4% in May.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.5% the previous month.
Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.7% YoY in June.   
Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in June. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.47 million from 4.62 million in May.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.7% from 7.8% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.65 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.46 million the previous month.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through June 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 54 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  
Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2Current, N/A541 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak
Summary:

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined.   The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%.
This was a solid employment report; however, a surprising number of state and local education employees were hired in June (63.5 thousand).  

June Employment Report: 147 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 16,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 147 thousand in June.  Private payrolls increased by 74 thousand, and public payrolls increased 73 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 7 thousand).

Payrolls for April and May were revised up by 16 thousand, combined.
Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In June, the year-over-year change was 1.81 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.3% in June, from 62.4% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 59.7% from 59.7% in May (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May.

This was above consensus expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined.  
I'll have more later ...

Thursday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 129,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 239 thousand from 236 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $69.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $61.6 billion the previous month.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for June.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.8, up from 49.9.

• All US markets will close early at 1:00 PM ET in observance of Independence Day

Pages