Individual Economists

Why Is New York's AG Targeting A Castle In West Virginia?

Zero Hedge -

Why Is New York's AG Targeting A Castle In West Virginia?

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

For more than 30 years, the author and public intellectual Peter Brimelow has argued for and published the writings of like-minded “immigration patriots” who support strong restrictions on immigration.

Standing at the right edge of the policy debate, he has drawn the ire of pro-immigration advocates who ascribe racism to his positions. Left-wing groups like the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Anti-Defamation League label him a “white nationalist.” They put him and VDARE, the nonprofit he established in 1999, on their well-publicized “hate” lists.

Brimelow claims those long-running battles over protected speech are the reason he has been targeted by New York Attorney General Letitia James for alleged financial improprieties connected to a West Virginia real estate deal – an effort that has so far cost more than $1 million in legal fees and forced him to pull the plug on VDARE last year.

Its website now states the nonprofit organization, established in New York, was “battered into suspension on July 23, 2024, by lawfare from New York State Attorney General Letitia James.” 

Although the state of New York began investigating Brimelow and VDARE in 2022, it only brought civil charges last month for a complex series of transactions tied to a castle in West Virginia.

“The Brimelows used VDARE like their personal piggy bank, draining millions in charitable assets to enrich themselves,” James alleged in announcing her lawsuit. The suit says Brimelow and his wife, Lydia, “have looted or wasted the corporate assets, have perpetuated the corporation solely for their personal benefit, or have otherwise acted in an illegal, oppressive or fraudulent manner.”

The Brimelows contend the allegations are baseless and that James confected a case to mask her true purpose, which was silencing political voices with which she disagrees. The couple says James has taken a page from the same playbook she used to fulfill a campaign promise by prosecuting and convicting then-citizen Donald Trump last year. That, too, involved a sophisticated real estate deal in which there were no injured parties. The years of subpoenas and legal harassment that drained VDARE months before the suit was filed, along with tactics publicly outlined in 2022 by the lead prosecutor on the case, are further proof that James is engaged in a political witch hunt, according to the defendants.

Here’s our response to all that: we are completely innocent,” Peter Brimelow told RealClearInvestigations. “We are an example of lawfare. The immigration issue has become increasingly crucial to Democrats who are really upset by Trump’s re-election, and they are clearly trying to bankrupt us with an overly broad and cumbersome investigation.”

The case brought by James comes at a time when concerns are high about the partisan use of the legal system to quash political enemies, and James herself is under federal indictment brought by the Trump administration over alleged mortgage fraud connected to homes she bought outside New York.

Cancel Culture Castle

At the center of James’ allegations against the Brimelows is the Berkeley Springs Castle in West Virginia, which VDARE bought for $1.4 million in February 2020. The castle was intended to serve as a location for VDARE events. Lydia Brimelow told RCI that it was a purchase necessitated by a concerted political campaign against the charity. More than a dozen venues in several states buckled to pressure from leftist groups and canceled contracts to host VDARE conferences. She said the nonprofit hoped to generate revenue by renting out the castle, a landmark completed in 1891 and included in the National Register of Historic Places, for weddings or other events.

In its suit, the New York AG’s office alleges the Brimelows got VDARE to buy the castle as a home for themselves, and then had the nonprofit pay them rent while they lived there. In another improper move, according to the lawsuit, ownership of the castle was transferred to the Berkeley Springs Castle Foundation, which prosecutors portray as shifting $1.7 million to “a corporation created by Lydia Brimelow.” 

None of that is true, Lydia Brimelow said. The family lived in the Castle after the purchase was made, but never gave up their home or official residence in Connecticut. They stayed in the Castle for about a year, but mostly in 2020, when COVID-19 shutdowns complicated travel back to  Connecticut. A felled tree that smashed through a roof also required oversight of a restoration project.  

“Nor of course does the Complaint acknowledge that [while staying there] I was running a [the VDARE] website … and that Lydia was now also locked into a constant battle to stop the Castle from falling down,” Peter Brimelow posted on VDARE Sept. 5 when the lawsuit was filed. “Instead, it insinuates we were just sitting around drinking tea.” 

The Brimelows say the ownership transfer cited in the AG’s complaint – in which the building became the property of the Berkeley Springs Castle Foundation, a new nonprofit formed for that purpose – was a routine move meant to protect VDARE from personal injury and other lawsuits that might be brought by people using the property. And while James raised concerns over the overlap of the Castle Foundation and VDARE boards, the Brimelows said that it is required to comply with Internal Revenue Service rules for “supporting organizations.”

Without citing this case or naming specific nonprofits because of the political nature of the case, RCI asked CharityWatch, a prominent nonprofit watchdog, whether these sorts of transactions raise red flags. A CharityWatch representative said they are common.

Frederick Kelly, a New York attorney who represents VDARE, says two other allegations against the Brimelows are also unfounded. The lawsuit claims that the $230,000 “paid to Lydia Brimelow’s father for ‘consulting services’ is an unapproved related-party transaction.” Kelly said that figure actually represents years of payments made for work at fair market value.

The fourth charge in the lawsuit relates to Happy Penguins, a now-defunct Connecticut company controlled by the Brimelows that received some $1.2 million in VDARE funds. Kelly said that it, too, was a response to cancel culture. Because many VDARE contributors wrote under pen names and were concerned about blowback for their opinions, the Brimelows set up Happy Penguins to handle payroll and other financial issues for years, according to Kelly.

A Fig Leaf

The castle kerfuffle is just a thin pretext for the true attention of the New York attorney general’s office, Kelly said. If it was the castle James’ office was concerned about – and neither West Virginia nor the IRS has raised questions – that could have been easily resolved if the New York AG had simply asked about it in 2022.

The very first thing we heard about this was a blizzard of subpoenas – 70 of them,” he said. “If it had been a smaller universe of information, okay, but their approach only makes sense if the goal isn’t regulatory but is crushing of speech.

“There was no informal inquiry, no effort to sort it out,” Kelly added. “If this was really about the castle, we made it clear we were happy to meet and lay that to rest. But right away they took the most aggressive stance they could take, asking for some 40 gigabytes of emails and more.”

It isn’t clear what triggered the AG’s investigation of  VDARE three years ago. Neither the New York Attorney General, the ADL, nor the SPLC responded to multiple requests for comment. After a week, the NYAG sent an email, pointing RCI to its complaint and press release.

There is no evidence that the actions were promoted by VDARE donors. RCI spoke with two VDARE donors, both of whom said they have no issue with the organization or the way the Brimelows managed it.

The AG’s office has not brought similar cases against any other nonprofit in 2025, according to its press releases. VDARE, which draws its name from Virginia Dare, the first English child born in the New World, doesn’t raise the kind of money that typically attracts regulatory scrutiny, according to its tax returns

In 2021, the year before James launched her probe, VDARE reported $721,161 in contributions and grants, a figure that dropped to $582,929 in 2022. In 2023, VDARE reported $664,477 in contributions, according to IRS filings.

When investment income and other sources are added, VDARE reported gross receipts of $1.7 million in 2021, a total that dropped to $763,754 in 2023, tax returns show.

IRS records also show VDARE’s legal bill skyrocketing. After spending just $49,152 in 2021, legal fees jumped to $178,658 the following year and in 2023 hit $566,700, according to tax records. But if possible financial chicanery wasn’t the motive here, what was? 

‘Securing Our Democracy’

One obvious clue is contained in the filing of the original civil complaint. Letitia James and James Sheehan, chief of the state’s charities bureau, are listed first, but right below them is Meghan Faux, a longtime progressive lawyer whose title is “chief deputy attorney general for social justice.”

Another attorney listed in the filing in the case against the Brimelows was Rick Sawyer, who in 2022 headed the New York attorney general’s Hate Crimes and Bias Prevention branch and is now director of its Civil Rights Division. In November 2022, at an Anti-Defamation League conference called “Securing Our Democracy: Taking Hate and Extremism to Court,” Sawyer laid out his prosecutorial strategy.

Sawyer acknowledged that “hate is protected in the U.S. Constitution; the First Amendment protects hate,” but said that should be no deterrent to aggressive tactics against those alleged to engage in it.

“Attorney generals offices have massive amounts of power,” he said. “In New York, we have subpoena authority for any kind of hate crime, subpoena power against charities – and this is before we even file a lawsuit, by the way. We can get massive amounts of discovery without even having to go to court.”

“We have the authority to do massive investigations that look into an organization, or sham charities that are advocating hate speech,” Sawyer continued. “We can look into groups that are making money off of hate, and we can look into individuals who committed acts of hate crimes without even going to court. It’s an untapped power.”

Kelly said politically charged prosecutors have followed that path.

“VDARE and the Brimelows were forced into exactly the outline Sawyer gave there,” he said.

The Brimelows have sought to admit Sawyer’s speech as evidence in a federal motion they filed on First Amendment grounds, but thus far the court has not accepted it. Kelly insisted that no federal judge has yet issued a ruling “on substantive grounds,” instead using procedural steps to punt the matter back to state court.

“But we knew that if Donald Trump didn’t have First Amendment protections in New York courts, then the Brimelows certainly wouldn’t,” Kelly told RCI.

Outside the Mainstream

Brimelow, 78 and an immigrant himself who was reared in England, is no newcomer to the immigration debate. In 1995, he published “Alien Nation: Common Sense About America’s Immigration Disaster,” which became a bestseller and is still available on Amazon. 

His position on immigration remains largely unchanged. Brimelow argues that the 1965 Immigration Act opened a spigot that went far beyond what Congress or the American people expected. 

“The country is being transformed against its will,” Brimelow said in a C-Span interview on Alien Nation. He believes the U.S. should stop illegal immigration, deport illegals in the country, and institute an “immigration moratorium” for between five and 15 years. During that time, “there should be a national debate” that would establish immigration policy in “a rational way.”

Even then, Brimelow said he expected pushback to his controversial contention that the immigrants coming to America were disconnected from the Western tradition and were more concerned with welfare than assimilation.

“They didn’t expect (immigration) would be dominated by just 15 countries, which is what happened,” he said of the 1965 measure. “They had no idea any of this was going to happen, but once it did it became a sacrosanct subject and people are afraid to discuss it. If it wasn’t for electronic media I would probably be in quite serious trouble.”

In addition to Brimelow’s views, VDARE published writers who seemed intent on pushing the boundaries of debate.  Posts there included, along with long-standing objections to open borders and lax enforcement of immigration court rulings, things like a claim that the “Central Park Five” were never exonerated, or that James herself is a “black supremacist.”

Some of the writers at VDARE were pseudonymous, as the Brimelows said they feared cancel culture, and many of them are unfamiliar to a wide audience. Most of the complaints lodged against VDARE by the Southern Poverty Law Center are from many years ago, when they highlighted the organization for publishing what they categorize as white nationalist or racist writers, like the late John Tanton and Sam Francis. The VDARE website also posted items by John Derbyshire, who was banned by National Review in 2012 for a piece he wrote for Taki’s Magazine that discussed IQ and race and crime and said it was best to “avoid concentrations of blacks not all known to you personally … Stay out of heavily black neighborhoods.”

VDARE also has published pieces by Kevin MacDonald, a psychology professor and editor of a publication called The Occidental Observer, who has been characterized as racist and anti-Semitic by critics, and it is this work Peter Brimelow believes leftist groups found particularly objectionable.

VDARE writers and the Brimelows have criticized other groups opposed to unrestricted immigration for failing to come to its defense in recent weeks, but some of them told RCI they are concerned about what’s happened, especially in light of James’ track record.

Some of the stuff they posted there was interesting; some of it some people might find repellent,” said Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies. “But you are supposed to be able to say what you want, and the idea you should be punished for that by organs of the state is outrageous. And immigration has become a kind of litmus test for the left.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 18:25

Las Vegas Slowdown Deepens As Gamblers Reject Unaffordable Sin City

Zero Hedge -

Las Vegas Slowdown Deepens As Gamblers Reject Unaffordable Sin City

A Las Vegas downturn first emerged on our radar early this past summer and has only deepened into fall. We previously noted that the days of cheap room rates and discounted buffets to lure gamblers are long gone, replaced by steep markups on even the smallest of items. For many working-class Americans, Vegas has become unaffordable, and the latest data from Goldman analysts show the Strip slowdown persisted through September. 

"Las Vegas trends remain lackluster," Goldman analyst Lizzie Dove wrote in a note citing a series of data points, including visitation and gambling metrics, that marked the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year visitation declines and continued softness across the Strip in September.

Here are the key Vegas trends to focus on:

  • Visitation: Down -8.8% y/y in September, following -7% in August and -12% in July. Convention attendance was especially weak (-19% y/y) due to the calendar shift of Oracle CloudWorld to October. Overall visitation fell -10% y/y.

  • Hotel Metrics: Las Vegas Strip RevPAR fell -7.9% y/y, driven by ADR -1.5% and occupancy down 570 bps to 81.3%. Weakness was sharper mid-week.

  • Gaming Revenue (GGR): Strip GGR declined -5.5% y/y to $688mn, largely due to a very low baccarat hold (8.5%) versus the two-year average of 16.3%. Adjusting for hold, GGR would have actually grown +2.2% y/y.

Despite falling visitation, gambling trends increased 11% y/y, suggesting operators are attracting higher-spending, gaming-focused visitors over general leisure tourists

Las Vegas Gaming Stats

Las Vegas Tracker

Vegas trends have been lagging in 2025, with the most pressure to RevPAR

Vegas casino stocks have been sideways since the pandemic. 

Related:

Perhaps the Wall Street Journal report this week about the GOP's midterm political convention potentially being held in Sin City next year could bring some tailwinds. However, casino operators still need to address the growing affordability issue in the city.

Zerohedge Pro subs can find the Vegas trends note in the usual place - there are more charts

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 18:05

Las Vegas Slowdown Deepens As Gamblers Reject Unaffordable Sin City

Zero Hedge -

Las Vegas Slowdown Deepens As Gamblers Reject Unaffordable Sin City

A Las Vegas downturn first emerged on our radar early this past summer and has only deepened into fall. We previously noted that the days of cheap room rates and discounted buffets to lure gamblers are long gone, replaced by steep markups on even the smallest of items. For many working-class Americans, Vegas has become unaffordable, and the latest data from Goldman analysts show the Strip slowdown persisted through September. 

"Las Vegas trends remain lackluster," Goldman analyst Lizzie Dove wrote in a note citing a series of data points, including visitation and gambling metrics, that marked the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year visitation declines and continued softness across the Strip in September.

Here are the key Vegas trends to focus on:

  • Visitation: Down -8.8% y/y in September, following -7% in August and -12% in July. Convention attendance was especially weak (-19% y/y) due to the calendar shift of Oracle CloudWorld to October. Overall visitation fell -10% y/y.

  • Hotel Metrics: Las Vegas Strip RevPAR fell -7.9% y/y, driven by ADR -1.5% and occupancy down 570 bps to 81.3%. Weakness was sharper mid-week.

  • Gaming Revenue (GGR): Strip GGR declined -5.5% y/y to $688mn, largely due to a very low baccarat hold (8.5%) versus the two-year average of 16.3%. Adjusting for hold, GGR would have actually grown +2.2% y/y.

Despite falling visitation, gambling trends increased 11% y/y, suggesting operators are attracting higher-spending, gaming-focused visitors over general leisure tourists

Las Vegas Gaming Stats

Las Vegas Tracker

Vegas trends have been lagging in 2025, with the most pressure to RevPAR

Vegas casino stocks have been sideways since the pandemic. 

Related:

Perhaps the Wall Street Journal report this week about the GOP's midterm political convention potentially being held in Sin City next year could bring some tailwinds. However, casino operators still need to address the growing affordability issue in the city.

Zerohedge Pro subs can find the Vegas trends note in the usual place - there are more charts

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 18:05

These 2 Supreme Court Cases May Affect Future Elections

Zero Hedge -

These 2 Supreme Court Cases May Affect Future Elections

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

The country is gearing up for the 2026 midterms, and the stakes are especially high for both allies and opponents of President Donald Trump’s administration.

In October, the Supreme Court heard two cases that may impact upcoming elections: one dealing with race-based congressional maps, and the other addressing whether federal candidates can challenge state laws that allow ballot counting after election day.

Race-Based Redistricting

Following a lawsuit by minority voters, a federal court in Louisiana ordered the state to redraw its congressional map to add a second majority-black district, since that demographic made up one-third of the state’s population. After it did so, a group of non-minority voters sued, arguing that the new maps discriminated against them racially.

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court heard arguments for both cases in a combined case called Louisiana v. Callais.

They asked whether Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act was being unconstitutionally interpreted to force states to draw congressional maps with extra mostly-minority districts.

That section of the law prohibits voter restriction based on “race or color.”

However, the court did not issue a ruling at that time. Instead, it rescheduled the case for October, asking both sides to be ready to argue whether using race as a factor to decide district lines violated the 14th and 15th Amendments.

Those Amendments guarantee equal protection under the law, and the right to vote despite considerations of “race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”

At the time, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote that the court should decide those cases immediately, and not wait until October.

“Congress requires this Court to exercise jurisdiction over constitutional challenges to congressional redistricting, and we accordingly have an obligation to resolve such challenges promptly,” he wrote.

Thomas wrote that previous Supreme Court decisions had created “tension” between the Voting Rights Act and the 14th and 15th Amendments: Lower courts had interpreted those decisions to mean that if a state could create an extra mostly-African-American district, then it must do so, he wrote.

During the October hearing, the court seemed likely to narrow the Voting Rights Act.

Counting Late Ballots

Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) and two presidential electors filed suit in 2022, challenging Illinois regulations that allow counting of mail-in ballots up to two weeks after an election. In addition to violating federal election law, they said, those rules require Bost to pay campaign staff for an extra two weeks of work as they monitor the late ballot-counting.

The lower courts ruled that Bost did not have standing, i.e., the right to sue, because the decision to pay staff to monitor the ballots was a “self-inflicted” injury. The Fifth Circuit Appeals Court also said Bost could not show the law injured him because the 2024 election was still two months away at the time of their ruling.

So, in the case Bost v. Illinois Board of Elections, the question before the Supreme Court is not yet about counting late ballots, but whether a federal candidate has the right to challenge the practice.

Paul Clement, arguing for Bost, told the court that counting the late ballots was illegal, could cost Bost the election or reduce his margin of victory, and meant he had to shell out extra money to pay his staff.

“All of that means that Congressman Bost has standing three times over,” he said.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said those harms seemed “speculative.”

Jane Notz, attorney for Illinois, said that allowing anyone who called themselves a ‘candidate’ to challenge election rules in court would result in “chaos.”

“It is very easy to be a candidate,” she said.

“Any self-declared candidate could challenge any election rule that they happen to have a policy disagreement with, even if that rule were entirely harmless.”

Louisiana Congressional District Map; Districts 2 and 6 are mostly-black districts. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Public Domain, Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

She also argued that Bost has no standing because he is unlikely to lose the race: He won the last two elections by 49 points and 50 points, respectively.

But when the justices asked how close the race would need to be for a candidate to have standing, Notz was unable give an answer.

Some of the justices were concerned that denying a candidate standing until after the election was underway would produce its own basket of problems.

“What you’re sketching out for us is a potential disaster,” Chief Justice John Roberts said.

“If the candidate hopes to win by a dozen votes—and there are places in the country where that happens over and over again—then he has standing. But we’re not going to know that until we get very close to the election, right? And so it’s going to be in the middle, the most fraught time for the Court to get involved in electoral politics.”

Justice Neil Gorsuch also asked if there was something “unseemly” about courts interfering with an election by making public statements about which candidate was most likely to win, and by how much.

The Outcome

The court has not yet issued a ruling in either of these cases, and timing is key.

Because of a rule called the Purcell doctrine, courts avoid issuing relevant decisions just before elections, in order to avoid voter confusion.

But if the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the Louisiana case before states begin their primary elections, some may choose to remake districts that were drawn with race-based considerations. Historically, mostly-minority districts tend to vote Democrat, so redrawing those maps would likely favor the GOP.

Arkansas’s primary election is in March.

Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi are among the likely candidates. All three states were previously forced by courts to redraw their congressional district lines.

Republicans currently have a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress and control of the White House.

Democrats seek to break that grip by eliminating the GOP majority in the House; Trump has forestalled that plan by urging red states to redraw their congressional district lines, creating new majority-Republican districts.

Trump’s plan may receive a boost, depending on how the Supreme Court rules.

The Bost case may take longer to have an effect. Since the case before the court addresses standing, the actual issue of late ballot-counting would likely be kicked back to lower courts, which would take time to issue decisions.

If Bost prevails, it would allow candidates the opportunity to challenge election laws ahead of time, with unpredictable consequences.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 17:45

These 2 Supreme Court Cases May Affect Future Elections

Zero Hedge -

These 2 Supreme Court Cases May Affect Future Elections

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

The country is gearing up for the 2026 midterms, and the stakes are especially high for both allies and opponents of President Donald Trump’s administration.

In October, the Supreme Court heard two cases that may impact upcoming elections: one dealing with race-based congressional maps, and the other addressing whether federal candidates can challenge state laws that allow ballot counting after election day.

Race-Based Redistricting

Following a lawsuit by minority voters, a federal court in Louisiana ordered the state to redraw its congressional map to add a second majority-black district, since that demographic made up one-third of the state’s population. After it did so, a group of non-minority voters sued, arguing that the new maps discriminated against them racially.

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court heard arguments for both cases in a combined case called Louisiana v. Callais.

They asked whether Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act was being unconstitutionally interpreted to force states to draw congressional maps with extra mostly-minority districts.

That section of the law prohibits voter restriction based on “race or color.”

However, the court did not issue a ruling at that time. Instead, it rescheduled the case for October, asking both sides to be ready to argue whether using race as a factor to decide district lines violated the 14th and 15th Amendments.

Those Amendments guarantee equal protection under the law, and the right to vote despite considerations of “race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”

At the time, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote that the court should decide those cases immediately, and not wait until October.

“Congress requires this Court to exercise jurisdiction over constitutional challenges to congressional redistricting, and we accordingly have an obligation to resolve such challenges promptly,” he wrote.

Thomas wrote that previous Supreme Court decisions had created “tension” between the Voting Rights Act and the 14th and 15th Amendments: Lower courts had interpreted those decisions to mean that if a state could create an extra mostly-African-American district, then it must do so, he wrote.

During the October hearing, the court seemed likely to narrow the Voting Rights Act.

Counting Late Ballots

Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) and two presidential electors filed suit in 2022, challenging Illinois regulations that allow counting of mail-in ballots up to two weeks after an election. In addition to violating federal election law, they said, those rules require Bost to pay campaign staff for an extra two weeks of work as they monitor the late ballot-counting.

The lower courts ruled that Bost did not have standing, i.e., the right to sue, because the decision to pay staff to monitor the ballots was a “self-inflicted” injury. The Fifth Circuit Appeals Court also said Bost could not show the law injured him because the 2024 election was still two months away at the time of their ruling.

So, in the case Bost v. Illinois Board of Elections, the question before the Supreme Court is not yet about counting late ballots, but whether a federal candidate has the right to challenge the practice.

Paul Clement, arguing for Bost, told the court that counting the late ballots was illegal, could cost Bost the election or reduce his margin of victory, and meant he had to shell out extra money to pay his staff.

“All of that means that Congressman Bost has standing three times over,” he said.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said those harms seemed “speculative.”

Jane Notz, attorney for Illinois, said that allowing anyone who called themselves a ‘candidate’ to challenge election rules in court would result in “chaos.”

“It is very easy to be a candidate,” she said.

“Any self-declared candidate could challenge any election rule that they happen to have a policy disagreement with, even if that rule were entirely harmless.”

Louisiana Congressional District Map; Districts 2 and 6 are mostly-black districts. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Public Domain, Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

She also argued that Bost has no standing because he is unlikely to lose the race: He won the last two elections by 49 points and 50 points, respectively.

But when the justices asked how close the race would need to be for a candidate to have standing, Notz was unable give an answer.

Some of the justices were concerned that denying a candidate standing until after the election was underway would produce its own basket of problems.

“What you’re sketching out for us is a potential disaster,” Chief Justice John Roberts said.

“If the candidate hopes to win by a dozen votes—and there are places in the country where that happens over and over again—then he has standing. But we’re not going to know that until we get very close to the election, right? And so it’s going to be in the middle, the most fraught time for the Court to get involved in electoral politics.”

Justice Neil Gorsuch also asked if there was something “unseemly” about courts interfering with an election by making public statements about which candidate was most likely to win, and by how much.

The Outcome

The court has not yet issued a ruling in either of these cases, and timing is key.

Because of a rule called the Purcell doctrine, courts avoid issuing relevant decisions just before elections, in order to avoid voter confusion.

But if the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the Louisiana case before states begin their primary elections, some may choose to remake districts that were drawn with race-based considerations. Historically, mostly-minority districts tend to vote Democrat, so redrawing those maps would likely favor the GOP.

Arkansas’s primary election is in March.

Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi are among the likely candidates. All three states were previously forced by courts to redraw their congressional district lines.

Republicans currently have a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress and control of the White House.

Democrats seek to break that grip by eliminating the GOP majority in the House; Trump has forestalled that plan by urging red states to redraw their congressional district lines, creating new majority-Republican districts.

Trump’s plan may receive a boost, depending on how the Supreme Court rules.

The Bost case may take longer to have an effect. Since the case before the court addresses standing, the actual issue of late ballot-counting would likely be kicked back to lower courts, which would take time to issue decisions.

If Bost prevails, it would allow candidates the opportunity to challenge election laws ahead of time, with unpredictable consequences.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 17:45

Amazon Soars To Record High On Solid Guidance, Improving AWS Results

Zero Hedge -

Amazon Soars To Record High On Solid Guidance, Improving AWS Results

With mixed earnings from META and MSFT (both down) and GOOGL (up) yesterday, today attention turns to the other two Mag7 giants, AAPL and AMZN, with the latter reporting right after the close, and the former waiting the usual 30 minutes. With sentiment turning darker in the market throughout the day, these two companies may be critical to restore the upward momentum or else it could get ugly.

With that in mind, Amazon appears to be doing what it can to buck the downbeat mood by reporting results which the market clearly is impressed with - cloud growth exceeded estimates along with resilient North American sales.

Here is what the world's largest retailer just reported:

  • EPS $1.95 vs. $1.68 q/q, beating estimate $1.58

  • Net sales $180.17 billion, +13% y/y, beating estimate $177.82 billion 

    • Online stores net sales $67.41 billion, +9.8% y/y, beating estimate $66.93 billion

    • Physical Stores net sales $5.58 billion, +6.7% y/y, beating estimate $5.56 billion

    • Third-Party Seller Services net sales $42.49 billion, +12% y/y, beating estimate $42.05 billion

    • Subscription Services net sales $12.57 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $12.49 billion

  • Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X +11% vs. +10% y/y, beating estimate +10.8%

  • Subscription services net sales excluding F/X +10% vs. +11% y/y, missing estimate +10.7%

Geographically the results were strong all around: 

  • North America net sales $106.27 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $104.96 billion

  • International net sales $40.90 billion, +14% y/y, beating estimate $40.77 billion

So far so good, with every line time beating. But what the market was especially focused on was the high margin AWS data, and here numbers also beat solidly: 

  • AWS net sales $33.01 billion, +20% y/y, beating estimate $32.39 billion

  • Amazon Web Services net sales excluding F/X +20% vs. +19% y/y, beating estimate +17.9%

That is the biggest year-over-year rise in AWS revenues since the end of 2022.

“We continue to see strong momentum and growth across Amazon as AI drives meaningful improvements in every corner of our business,” Jassy said in a statement.

Turning to operating profits, here the results were rather mixed: 

  • Operating income $17.42 billion vs. $17.41 billion y/y, missing estimate $19.72 billion

    • Operating margin 9.7% vs. 11% y/y, missing estimate 11.1%

    • North America operating margin +4.5% vs. +5.9% y/y, missing estimate +6.98%

    • International operating margin 2.9% vs. 3.6% y/y, missing estimate 4.02%

As for fulfillment expenses, these came in slightly above estimates, as did the seller unit mix. These may deteriorate if  tariffs rise: 

  • Fulfillment expense $27.68 billion, +12% y/y, estimate $27.49 billion

  • Seller unit mix 62% vs. 60% y/y, estimate 60.7%

Of the above, the most notable highlight was AWS which grew revenue by 19.7% (stronger than the 19% year ago) to $33.0BN, above the sellside estimate of $32.39BN. That said, despite the latest quarterly beat, the growth rate is clearly slowing but not enough for the market to care right now:

Bloomberg reports that like its biggest rivals, Amazon has invested heavily in data centers and chips to build and operate AI models capable of generating text or images and automating processes.

  • Purchases of property and equipment during the most recent quarter jumped 55% to $35.1 billion, topping analysts’ projections.

Though Amazon has sought to position its cloud business as a marketplace for a broad range of AI tools, it has a lot riding on a single parter: Anthropic PBC, the maker of the Claude chatbot and software coding assistant.

Amazon is backing Anthropic with an investment of $8 billion, and built the startup a massive complex of data centers and custom AWS AI chips.

That system, called Project Rainier, is up and running, the company said this week. Google recently announced a deal to provide Anthropic with some of its own chips.

Amazon said its Trainium2 chip was “fully subscribed” and represented a multibillion-dollar business.

“We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity – adding more than 3.8 gigawatts in the past 12 months," Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in a letter to shareholders.

While AWS sales growth was solid, just as impressive was the the margin for the segment also increased from 32.9% in Q2 to 34.6%, beating the median Wall Street estimate of 33.95%, if below the recent average from the past two years. Elsewhere, North American profit dropped to $4.789 billion, resulting in a profit margin of 4.51%, missing estimates of 5.9%, while international margins dropped to to 2.93%, and also missing estimates of 3.6%

As a result of the drop in AWS profits, Amazon's consolidated operating margin posted a sequential drop and in Q3 declined from 11.4% to 9.7%, the lowest since 2023.

However, while the above data was solid, it was the company's guidance that cemented the stock's surge after hours; that's because the company projected revenue and profit in the current quarter which was seen as coming in above Wall Street expectations. 

  • Net sales are expected to be between $206.0 billion and $213.0 billion, or to grow between 10% and 13% compared with fourth quarter 2024, the mid point coming in above the estimate of 208.45BN

  • See operating income is expected to be between $21.0 billion and $26.0 billion, compared with $21.2 billion in fourth quarter 2024, the midpoint also beating the est. of $23.78BN

This means that revenue growth in Q3 is expected to print 13.2% YoY, just above the 13% in the current quarter and a continuation of the very solid recent growth.

In response to the solid guidance and the AWS results which came in above expectations, the spiked after hours, and surged just over $20, or nearly 9%, rising to a new all time high...

... as attention now turns to AAPL.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 16:32

Fresh Israeli Strikes Again Test Trump-Brokered Gaza Deal

Zero Hedge -

Fresh Israeli Strikes Again Test Trump-Brokered Gaza Deal

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues hanging by a thread, now about two-and-a-half weeks in, but there are new reports of airstrikes in Gaza by Israeli warplanes.

Israeli warplanes and tanks struck targets in eastern Gaza on Thursday, according to Palestinian residents and witnesses, cited in Reuters and other outlets. Over 100 Palestinians have died after on Tuesday Israel resumed airstrikes, citing the death of an IDF reserve soldier after Hamas gunmen opened fire in Rafah.

Illustrative via AP

Wednesday saw Israel's military proclaim that it was returning to observing the ceasefire, following pressure from the White House. But Thursday's new airstrikes suggest fighting and bombardments have continued, and events on the ground have not aligned with the public-facing rhetoric.

Witnesses reported around ten airstrikes east of Khan Younis in southern Gaza, alongside tank shelling near Gaza City in the north, Reuters has noted in its latest reporting.

But Israel is still claiming the ceasefire is on, calling the new operation "precise strikes" against "terrorist infrastructure posing a threat to troops" in areas still under Israeli control.

So it seems that the Israeli rationale is based on these new strikes only taking place where Israel's military is fully deployed, and not in places like Gaza City where the IDF withdrew as part of the Phase 1 agreement called for in Trump's peace plan.

Hamas has this week communicated its readiness and willingness to abide by the terms of the ceasefire, and says it is preparing to hand over more hostage bodies to Israel - amid a broader search for more remains.

Hamas officials have criticized "a systematic campaign of misinformation" by the Israeli side said to be aimed at concealing "crimes against civilians."

Meanwhile there are separate reports that fighting in the West Bank has been heating up, which could also serve to threaten the truce deal in Gaza:

Vice President J.D. Vance had said of the flare-up in fighting and resulting airstrikes Tuesday afternoon, "Despite the clashes today, the ceasefire agreement in Gaza will continue." The Trump White House has been seeking to stabilize the ceasefire, with American delegations going back-and-forth frequently of late to Israel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 15:45

Los Angeles Dethrones Chicago As 'Rattiest US City

Zero Hedge -

Los Angeles Dethrones Chicago As 'Rattiest US City

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

After holding the ominous title of “rattiest” U.S. city for more than 10 years, Chicago has been replaced by Los Angeles as the new top haven for the pesky, sharp-toothed rodents.

Orkin’s Oct. 28 annual “Top 50 Rattiest Cities List” has bestowed this new designation upon the City of Angels, ranking cities by the highest reported rat activity.

The Atlanta-based national and international pest control firm noted that Los Angeles is a robust breeding ground for rats, with its year-round warm weather, dense neighborhoods, restaurants, and other eateries.

“From bustling commercial corridors to hidden alleyways, Los Angeles’ signature blend of glam and grit creates a perfect storm for rodent activity,” the report stated.

Rodents are highly adaptive and are attracted to the same basic needs as humans: shelter, food and water. They tend to thrive in moderate weather, so their populations can grow substantially during the warmer months. As temperatures drop, rats typically seek out warmer shelter and food sources, often causing havoc for both home and business owners.

“Rats and mice are more than a nuisance—they’re opportunists,” Ian Williams, an Orkin entomologist, said in the report.

“If there’s food, warmth and a way in, they’ll find it. And once inside, their constant chewing and rapid reproduction can quickly turn a small issue into a large, expensive one.”

According to the report, rodents can gnaw through walls, wiring, and even pipes and steel garbage cans. In addition to potentially causing thousands of dollars in damage, the vermin often carry diseases including salmonellosis, plague, typhus, and other serious health risks.

An August report from the California Almond Board attributed a severe roof rat infestation across the southern and western San Joaquin Valley to damage on more than 100,000 acres, causing significant economic losses. The infestation affected nut crops and damaged trees, irrigation systems, and other infrastructure. Losses among almond growers ranged from $109 million to $311 million.

Orkin’s list named New York City as the third “rattiest” metro for this year, followed by San Francisco and Hartford, Connecticut. Rounding out the Top 10 were: Washington, D.C., Detroit, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Denver.

Two additional California locations—San Diego and Sacramento—made the list. Tampa, Miami, and Orlando, Florida, were also included among the Top 50, as were Dallas and Houston.

Other notable locations named were: Boston, Seattle, Phoenix, New Orleans, and Reno, Nevada.

To prevent rodent infestations, Orkin recommends following the GNAW acronym: guard entry points by sealing cracks or holes; never leave food unattended outside; avoid clutter for possible nesting spots; and watch for signs like gnaw marks, burrows, or droppings.

“Watch for small openings: Rats only need an opening the size of a quarter to access a building, and mice need even less space,” the report indicates. It also cautions about any water leaks or standing water that could be attractive to rodents.

Improperly sealed trash containers can also be a delicious lure for rats, so checking for small holes or damage is always recommended.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 15:25

Trump Jr.: 1789 Capital's "Patriotic Capitalism" Will Unleash America First Prosperity

Zero Hedge -

Trump Jr.: 1789 Capital's "Patriotic Capitalism" Will Unleash America First Prosperity

After years of relentless lawfare and debankings, it would have seemed unthinkable for Donald Trump Jr. to emerge as a venture capitalist backing some of the world's most innovative startups. And yet, here we are.

At the onset of his father’s second term, Trump Jr. joined 1789 Capital as a partner. The firm, co-founded in 2022 by investment banker Omeed Malik, Republican megadonor Rebekah Mercer and American Greatness publisher Chris Buskirk, has staked out territory as an explicit alternative to the environmental, social and governance investing that dominated Wall Street in recent years. Its pitch: back American companies driving what it calls "IEG" - innovation, entrepreneurship and growth - while sidestepping the diversity mandates and climate commitments that became corporate orthodoxy.

At the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh on Wednesday, Malik and Trump Jr. detailed a portfolio heavy on artificial intelligence and defense technology, sectors experiencing a funding surge amid heightened geopolitical tensions and Pentagon modernization efforts, CAPITAL reports. The timing has proved fortuitous, as defense-tech startups raised a record $33 billion in 2024, according to PitchBook.

Among 1789 Capital's holdings are Anduril Industries, the autonomous weapons maker valued at $30.5 billion that has positioned itself as a nimble alternative to traditional defense contractors; Hadrian, which manufactures precision parts for military applications; and a suite of Elon Musk's companies, including SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink.

Additionally, 1789 Capital recently joined a funding round for Vulcan Elements, a rare-earths magnet producer that has secured Pentagon contracts. The investment reflects a broader push—echoed in administration policy—to rebuild domestic supply chains for critical minerals that China has long dominated, controlling roughly 70% of global rare-earth production. The firm also invested in Base, an Austin-based energy startup co-founded by Michael Dell's son, Zach Dell, that focuses on residential battery storage and grid management solutions to Texas residents.

“We want to complement all the great work that the Trump administration is doing within the private sector,” Malik said, while Trump Jr. cast the effort in more political terms.

"What we want is a generational shift towards these America first policies both, in government and in the private sector, to unleash the freedom and prosperity that all Americans deserve," the president’s son said.

The firm's growth has accelerated since President Donald Trump returned to office in January. Securities and Exchange Commission filings from recent months showed assets under management approaching $900 million. PitchBook estimates place the figure closer to $1.25 billion, while the New York Times reports that assets now total roughly $2 billion—more than doubling in less than a year.

During the panel discussion, Malik and Trump Jr. appeared to confirm a Bloomberg report that 1789 Capital was seeking to raise a fund for investing in South Florida real estate.

It's actually part of a broader vision,” Malik began when asked about the plans. "1789 will be a multi-strategy asset manager and we have the growth equity fund, we have a small situations fund and the next thing we were going to do is real estate.”

"One is certainly a macro or political assessment of the situation that I referenced earlier, which is there will continue to be mass migration from the northeast to the sun belt, including Florida,” Malik said. “We want to be able to have a real estate development fund that's going to take advantage of that migration as well as the fact that a lot of the sun belt has not been zoned or built properly. That's a huge opportunity in that area. Chicago, LA, and New York which are on the decline."

"The other is if you think about all the things we're investing in, all the innovation, all the AI, all the tech, you can't do that without infrastructure,” the 1789 Capital co-founder added. "The other aspect that's very synergistic with our portfolio is making sure that you can do those data centers, the hyperscalers, and that's a thing that we're going to invest in in our own portfolio."

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 15:05

We Are Drifting To A 2-G World, One US-centric, Another Chinese

Zero Hedge -

We Are Drifting To A 2-G World, One US-centric, Another Chinese

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Think a 2-G, not a G-2 world

The Fed briefly made the market headline this morning after doing what was expected - cutting 25bps to 4%; and what markets had wanted – stopping QT; but also what markets hadn’t expected and didn’t want – calling into question how much further rates will fall. As such, markets, who netted a peak-to-trough $6.5 trillion in Fed balance sheet expansion in the ‘it’s just an asset swap that will be reversedQE > QT > (QE?) cycle, were not happy, though we see 25bps cuts in December (if not a done deal), and March, June, and September 2026: see here for more. While looking at that $6.5trn, consider the unironic Washington Post op-ed that ‘This Supreme Court decision [on the Fed’s Cook] could basically guarantee higher inflation’.

As some focus on how politics and central banks can fuse one way, Europe displayed another. ECB President Lagarde repeated a call for the EU to move to majority voting, following former ECB President then unelected Italian PM Draghi, and Bank of Italy Governor Panetta. Without taking a stance, is this in the ECB’s remit other than it indirectly involves the economy? What would markets think if Powell got involved over House redistricting? Regardless, it underlines the pressure for structural, market-moving change in Europe.

In the geopolitical world the EU is struggling to keep up with, Russia tested a nuclear torpedo that can flood cities with “radioactive tsunamis”; the US will undertake nuclear tests in response to those of others; Western intel said Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions, with China’s help; Venezuela’s “creaking military” is preparing for US strikes; Brazil saw dozens die in Rio in police-drug gang clashes, which included the Ukraine-war tactic of drone-dropped bombs; and the US plans a "show of force" against “Chinese aggression” in the South China Sea.

In related geoeconomics, Nvidia hit a $5trn market cap - as its CEO just said it doesn’t matter if the US or China wins the global AI race(!); the BOJ ignored US Treasury Secretary’s Bessent advice and left rates on hold again at 0.5% with no more dissenters than the previous two; Saudi Arabia will refocus its $925bn sovereign wealth fund from real estate towards critical minerals, logistics, and AI, which sounds US-linked; Trump said South Korea will build a nuclear submarine in the US, transferring its highest defense tech, as he struck a deal to lower auto tariffs to 15% from 25% in return for $150bn for US shipbuilding, $20bn annual FDI for a decade, and major energy purchases; and Oslo reported Chinese made EV buses can be disabled remotely via software updates, allowing direct access to their battery.

Yet the Atlantic notes as of now, ‘The US Is on Track to Lose a War With China’ as “modern warfare is decided by production capacity and technological mastery, not by individual valor”; new US rare earths processing tech may help it leapfrog China, as the quest for rare earth elements is sparking a Texas mining revival; Australia’s Lynas will build a heavy rare earth plant in Malaysia; but Malaysia, which just signed such a rare earths deal with the US, will only export processed products; as three Indian companies received the first set of licenses for importing rare earth magnets from China – which cannot be used for defence purposes.

The latter underlines Europe may not be able to rearm either, whatever funds it allocates to it, unless it develops alternative supply, with a parallel issue threatening the chips need for auto production. For chips, that will take time to ramp up; for rare earths, far more so given Europe lacks key resources, which the FT just noticed in ‘Europe and the curse of geography.

Meanwhile, Beijing is lobbying Europe not to side with the US as France’s parliament voted to raise their tech tax, potentially setting up a clash with Trump, and Macron called for social media that won’t declare its bias to be banned, perhaps setting up a clash with VP Vance.

Summarising the zeitgeist, the Economist pens ‘A letter to investors from the White House Opportunities Fund’, on “How the shift to state capitalism is panning out for America LLC.” It’s rather early to be making that call – but the description of the new (geo)political economy is not, as we called as imminent immediately that Trump was re-elected. Indeed, underlining how wrongly that is still being read by some, @Eurobriefing notes: “Remember the investment flows from the US to Europe – after Trump’s tariffs and the election of Merz? It’s all reversing now. US investors are slowing waking up to a political reality of political perma-gridlock in Europe. And Europeans investors are starting to realise the macroeconomic gains from AI are far more likely to arise in the US and China than in Europe.”

Of course, all the preceding news was just a warm-up for today’s critical Trump – Xi meeting, before which Trump posted, “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!”, worrying the other 193. The early words in front of the media in Busan were win-win: Xi stated China’s development does not contradict the vison of “Make America Great Again.” However, as China expert Matt Pottinger asks, ‘Is Trump Getting Played by Xi?’, and “If so, America’s agrarian past may be its future” --something I pointed out was the trend in relative import-export rations by sector in 2017’s The Great Game of Global Trade-- tariffs, fentanyl, AI chips - where the Chair of the House Select Committee on China states selling Nvidia Blackwell chips to China would be “akin to giving Iran weapons grade uranium”, rare earths, soybeans, Taiwan, and even Russia-Ukraine were all rumored to be in the mix – if you aren’t at the table, you are likely on it.

Trump said it was “amazing” and “outstanding” meeting, and agreed a rolling one-year deal that can be extended where: “tremendous” US soybean purchases will “start immediately”; China “agreed to work to stop fentanyl,” so a 10% US tariff reduction has gone into effect, but “many other tariffs remain”; USTR Greer said China will not be imposing rare earth controls – but does that only apply to the US?; Blackwell AI chips were not discussed, though China is going to talk about others with Nvidia; US nuclear tests are aimed at others; Taiwan was not discussed; and Trump will visit China in April. We are still waiting for official readouts, but this seems a short-term ceasefire, not any long-term settlement - and no TACOs were on the menu.

So, ‘stability’ until April on one front – unless China doesn’t keep its end of the bargain, in which case tariffs go up (110%?). Meanwhile, the US will target onshoring and rare earths while China targets high-end chips. That, and other developments, still say that rather than a US-China G-2 CoDominium, we are drifting to a 2-G world, one US-centric, another Chinese.

In what would otherwise be major news today, Trump conceded that it’s “pretty clear” that he can’t tun for a third term, which would be actual news to Steve Bannon.

UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering a 2% increase in income tax in the upcoming budget, as she joins the list of government ministers having to alert the official ethics adviser after an “inadvertent mistake” with a London property licence and the rental of her family home; and

The liberal D66 party looks to have won the same number of seats as the right wing PVV in the Dutch election with 97.7% of the vote counted, and D66 leader Jettens looks in pole position to be the next Prime Minister; he will inherit the Nexperia, rare earths, Russia-Ukraine, and EU-US issues as he looks to build closer cooperation with Europe - just as the EU may be set for major changes(?)

To conclude, the Fed cut as expected but could now see a pause; the Trump-Xi meeting also saw a tactical pause. Both were welcome, but neither mean much in the bigger picture

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 14:45

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 October
The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 October. ...

19-25 October 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 66.6% (-3.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.36 (-1.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$110.78 (-5.3%)

Among the Top 25 Markets, Tampa reported the steepest occupancy drop (-24.2% to 63.7%), due to the elevated displacement demand period that followed Hurricane Milton in 2024.

New Orleans posted the largest decreases in ADR (-35.3% to US$195.39) and RevPAR (-41.9% to US$132.94). The market’s performance was affected by a comparison against Taylor Swift’s 2024 Eras Tour dates.

Overall, 21 of the Top 25 Markets saw an occupancy decline.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Oil, Gas, & "The End Of Climate Catastrophism"

Zero Hedge -

Oil, Gas, & "The End Of Climate Catastrophism"

Oil stocks remain some of the cheapest relative to the broader market so we figured its time to discuss why.

In last night’s ZH Debate, we pulled together top energy analysts representing three different views, hosted by friend of zerohedge and former energy trader Erik Townsend, a true expert in the field and the host of the Macro Voices podcast.

In the bullish corner, Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten has over 30 years on the Street analyzing energy for firms like Goldman Sachs. For the bearish case, Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone is a commodity specialist with equal time doing high-level institutional research. Lastly, taking a middle-road outlook, Paul Sankey of Sankey Research remains bearish through winter, turning bullish by February. Sankey is former MD at Deutsche Bank.

Here are the key moments for those short on time but we highly recommend anyone with money in the market listen to the full debate:

Bearish Target: $40 per barrel

Blooberg’s McGlone opened with the bearish case: “WTI crude oil is down about 16% this year… every trend is lower prices.” He called it “an extreme bear market,” adding that stabilization “requires the stock market [to] stabilize and at least go up.”

Equities are, of course, making new all-time highs by the week, which McGlone worries makes them vulnerable to corrections. “If we get a normal 10 to 20% correction,” he warned, “that’ll easily get to my $40 a barrel.”

Oil is not alone compared to corn, soybeans, and wheat. But according to McGlone,“crude oil is more elastic than it was any time in the past,” referring to 

Long-term Bull Case: Climate insanity is done

Murti dismissed the idea of a “delayed transition” away from fossil fuels as “absolute nonsense,” arguing that while new technologies could one day threaten oil demand, “we do not know what they are today.” 

He emphasized the global inequality of energy development—“one eighth of the world being rich and the other seven eighths” still striving to catch up—and said that the recent Bill Gates flip flop marked “the end of climate catastrophism as a mainstream thing.”

The “Horrendous Energy Intensive” AI Boom

Sankey warned that artificial intelligence could become an “energy black hole,” as it becomes ever more ubiquitous. “The more efficient AI becomes, the more you're going to use AI and by extension, the more energy you're going to have to use,” Sankey said.

This trend could continue “until the energy cost gets too high, potentially the environmental costs get too high, and you have to cease and desist.”

while that may cause an energy crisis, it seems hard to deny it’s bullish for oil. 

Watch the full debate below on your preferred platform:


 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 14:05

Rising Electricity Prices To Make Winter More Costly For Most US Households

Zero Hedge -

Rising Electricity Prices To Make Winter More Costly For Most US Households

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

As the October-through-March winter “heating season” unfolds, a spate of forecasts indicates that the cost of electricity will double, if not triple, the projected 2–3 percent overall 2026 inflation rate and, regardless of fuel source, make it more expensive to stay warm this winter.

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Oct. 15 Winter Fuels Outlook 2025–2026, projected that a nationwide “average” 5-percent increase in electricity costs in 2026 will raise winter heating costs by 4 percent and even more for the 42 percent of U.S. households that use electricity for heating.

That 5 percent hike in retail electricity exceeds overall 2026 inflation projections ranging from 2.2 to 3.2 percent.

Data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index through August documents overall inflation of 2.9 percent over the previous 12 months, with electricity costs increasing 3.1 percent, a gap forecasters project will widen in 2026.

S&P Global, which based previous models on 2 percent inflation, now anticipates that overall prices will increase by 3 percent “largely driven by ... tariffs on consumer prices.”

That forecast aligns with the 3.1 percent inflation Dow Jones consensus and Deloitte’s 3.2 percent projection, but is higher than others, including J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s expectation that 2026 inflation will “drift down” from 2025’s “peak” of 2.8 percent.

Bankrate, documenting 24.3 percent “cumulative inflation” since 2020, projects 2.7 percent inflation in 2026, similar to the Congressional Budget Office’s 2.7 percent forecast, with expectations for it to fall to 2.2 percent in 2027 and 2028.

The Office of Management and Budget, as of September, was among outliers, sticking with its 2.2 percent inflation forecast, “consistent with reaching the Federal Reserve’s target.”

With so many inflation qualifications, forecasting how much it will cost to heat homes this winter is equally tentative, but among certainties is that more than 100 gas and electric companies across 41 states raised rates in 2025 or plan to do so in 2026, according to a September Center for American Progress report.

While the EIA projects “winter temperatures and residential energy consumption to be similar to last winter,” electricity costs will still be “higher than last winter across the country” by about 5 percent.

Others are projecting higher increases, including a forecast 7.6 percent hike in “average” electricity prices by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association in its Sept. 19 Winter Outlook 2025–2026.

“Electricity prices are rising more than twice as fast as the overall inflation rate due to utility investment in transmission and distribution systems, [and] the rising cost of natural gas,” the association said in a statement accompanying the study, citing a 2024 Edison Electric Institute report that calculates that ratepayers are financing $1.1 trillion in grid updates planned by 2029.

As noted by the EIA in its October short-term energy outlook, projected electricity costs for the upcoming winter vary according to where a consumer lives, what infrastructure improvement surcharges are being levied, the weather, and the type of fuel, with natural gas, electricity, propane, and oil used to heat 96 percent of homes in the United States.

Lower Natural Gas Forecast

The EIA’s outlook uses different weather models in calculating electricity-use and heating-cost projections to produce a base forecast and alternates modeling 10 percent colder or 10 percent warmer winters. It assumes “this winter will be slightly milder than the last winter across much of the country, especially in the Northeast.”

Winter energy expenditures also vary by heating fuel.

“Homes heating with natural gas will pay about the same amount for natural gas as they did last winter, but homes heating with electricity will pay more,” the EIA projects. “Homes heating with propane or heating oil will pay less than they did last winter.”

More than 46 percent of homes in the United States burn natural gas in furnaces, making it the nation’s most common space-heating fuel, according to the administration.

The EIA’s outlook notes mid-October natural gas inventories in the United States were about 5 percent above the previous five-year October averages.

“Going into winter,” it states, “prices are expected to increase as natural gas exports increase and storage withdrawals outpace injections,” projecting September’s $3 per million British thermal units average will top $4 in early 2026, but still be “almost 50 cents” lower than its August forecast.

“Our lower price expectation reflects our forecast that natural gas production will be higher than we forecast last month, leading to more natural gas in inventory through the winter than previously expected,” it said, predicting any increases in natural gas prices will be offset by “slightly higher” production and “slightly milder temperatures” reducing natural gas consumption by 2 percent.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projects consumers will pay 8 percent more for natural gas during the October-to-March “heating season,” with average costs increasing from $639 to $693.

Higher wholesale gas prices and strong liquified natural gas (LNG) export demand are responsible for the price hikes, NEADA states.

The Luxembourg-based Economy Forecast Agency projects Henry Hub natural gas prices will creep above $4 per million units by December, but median averages would dip below $4 in 2026 until October, similar to the EIA’s forecast.

The EIA projects lower natural gas prices in the Pacific West and little change across the Intermountain West. NEADA forecasts a 13.5 percent increase in natural gas prices across the West.

Natural gas consumers in the South will see at least a 3 percent reduction in 2026 costs from 2025, the EIA projects, and as much as a 5 percent reduction if a milder winter unfolds. NEADA forecasts a 5.3 percent increase across the region.

The Northeast will see stable, if not lower, natural gas prices as Mountain View Pipeline reaches capacity, the EIA projects, while NEADA forecasts an 8.1 percent increase in the mid-Atlantic and New England.

“The Midwest is the only region where we expect a slight increase in natural gas bills this winter in our base case,” the EIA projects. “Winter household natural gas bills in the Midwest are forecast to average about $610 in our base case, or 2% more than last winter.”

The Midwest is expected to experience a 16.4 percent jump in natural gas prices, growing from $600 last winter to $698 for the coming winter, NEADA counters.

A propane holding tank at Blue Flame Propane Co. in Worth, Michigan, in December 2022. Steven Kovac/Epoch Times

Higher Power Cost Projections

Electricity is the second-most common heating method in the United States, increasing from warming 35 percent of the nation’s homes in 2010 to more than 42 percent in 2024, the EIA documents in an Oct. 10 analysis.

Electricity is reliant on a fuel source, so how much it costs is influenced by market fluctuations. The EIA documents that 40 percent of the nation’s electricity is generated by natural gas—down from 43 percent in 2023—25 percent by renewables (solar, wind, hydro, biomass), 18 percent by nuclear energy, and 14 percent by coal.

“Higher winter expenditures for homes heating with electricity are primarily driven by higher retail electricity prices,” the EIA states, basing projections on an average 5 percent increase in retail electricity.

The administration acknowledges electricity-for-heating estimates are “muted because the space-heating portion of electricity bills is relatively low” when factored with “water heating, cooking, or clothes drying.”

“The effect of higher electricity prices ... is slightly offset by our expectation that residential electricity consumption will decrease by 1% because of milder weather this winter,” especially in the South, so while overall electricity prices will increase by 5 percent, the electricity cost of space heating will be slightly lower, the EIA calculates.

“Winter residential electricity expenditures in the Midwest and South regions increase by a similar rate as the national average, 4%, despite slightly lower electricity consumption,” it projects. “Expenditures in the Northeast and West regions are expected to increase by 3% this winter.”

The Midwest could be hit hardest with an estimated 19.7 percent increase in electricity costs—an average of around $1,500 for this coming winter, compared with $1,250 for the 2024–2025 winter—NEADA forecasts, with its estimate nearly $220 more than the EIA’s $1,280 tabulation.

The EIA forecasts Northeast consumers will see 2026 electricity costs increase by 6 percent, with NEADA forecasting homes heating with electricity in the Northeast will see costs increase by 7.2 percent and spend $1,520 this winter to stay warm.

The EIA projects electricity costs in the Pacific West to increase by 2 percent, “the lowest expected increase” in any region, and by 6 percent in the Rocky Mountain West, while NEADA forecasts that “the West will see utility prices grow at a projected 18 percent for electricity.”

NEADA maintains the South could see a 21.4 percent hike in winter electricity costs. EIA projects 4 to 6 percent increases in electricity-for-heating across the region.

Propane heats about 5 percent of the nation’s homes, EIA calculates, and is “more common in the upper Midwest and Northeast.”

The administration forecasts a 7 percent decline in propane prices this winter in tandem with sliding crude oil prices, while NEADA projects that propane gas users can expect to save up to 5 percent during the colder months, with average prices sliding from $1,316 to $1,250.

Oil heats about 3 percent of homes in the United States, mostly in the Northeast, where 80 percent of homes use it for heat, according to EIA.

“We expect these homes will spend 8 percent less on heating oil this winter,” it projects, while NEADA anticipates that homes heated by oil “may see a decline of 4 percent this winter—dropping on average from $1,515 to $1,455.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 13:45

Putin's Offer To Extend The New START Is A Goodwill Gesture To Trump

Zero Hedge -

Putin's Offer To Extend The New START Is A Goodwill Gesture To Trump

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Putin offered in late September to extend the New START, which is the last arms control pact between Russia and the US, for another year following its expiry in early February.

He then reaffirmed his proposal in early October, emphasizing that there’s still time to extend this crucial agreement if the US has the political will, which appears to be the case given Trump’s recent praise of it as “a good idea”. Regardless of whatever happens, Putin’s offer is a goodwill gesture to Trump, which will now be explained.

For background, Putin announced Russia’s suspension of the New START in February 2023 in response to NATO’s involvement in Ukraine’s drone attacks against his country’s strategic aviation bases several months prior, which was analyzed here as the right thing to do at the right time. Nearly a year later in January 2024, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov then declared that talks on this issue won’t resume till the Ukrainian Conflict ends, arguing that doing otherwise would put Russia at a disadvantage.

With that in mind, it was expected at the start of the year that “Mutual Interest In Resuming Arms Control Talks Can Speed Up The Ukrainian Peace Process”, yet that didn’t come to pass with Russian-US tensions escalating shortly after mid-August’s Anchorage Summit. Nevertheless, Putin still publicly praised Trump for working towards peace and proposed extending New START for another year, thus representing a change in Russia’s position as articulated by Lavrov over 18 months earlier.

Goodwill gestures are meant to make the recipient trust whoever does them with the expectation that they’ll then be reciprocated for improving their relations. That doesn’t always happen though as proven by Russia’s goodwill gesture of withdrawing from Kiev during spring 2022’s peace talks being seen as weakness by Ukraine, the UK, and Poland, the last two of which then convinced Ukraine to keep fighting. The possibility thus exists that Trump might perceive Putin’s latest goodwill gesture in the same way.

It’s crucial to mention that Putin reassured his people that Russia can ensure its national security even in the absence of extending New START and that any unilateral moves by the US to further upset the strategic balance between their countries would render this pact null and void. What he probably had in mind was Trump’s “Golden Dome” initiative, previously known as the “Iron Dome”, for reviving Reagan’s “Star Wars” plan for space-based interceptors and likely secret space-based offensive missiles too.

Taking his trade deals as precedent, he always wants the US to maintain the dominant position in any “compromise”, so he might either insist on continuing to build the “Golden Dome” despite this ruining any New START extension or secretly continuing to do so even if he says he won’t. If the CIA assesses that Russia might transfer cutting-edge nuclear weapons technology to China and/or North Korea in that case, and that this would in turn jeopardize US national security interests, then he might reconsider.

Putin’s goodwill gesture to Trump of offering to extend New START is therefore a pivotal moment in their ties since it’ll allow Russia to learn whether the US is serious about compromising. If Trump doesn’t ditch the “Golden Dome” or dupes Putin about freezing work on it, then even though the new Burevestnik missile could still piece through it, Russia might still opt to transfer this tech to its nuclear-armed allies in order to raise the costs to the US of rejecting Russia’s proposal so that it doesn’t reject future ones too.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 13:05

EBay Shares Plunge Most Since 2005 As Soft Outlook Overshadows Solid Earnings

Zero Hedge -

EBay Shares Plunge Most Since 2005 As Soft Outlook Overshadows Solid Earnings

EBay shares plunged as much as 16% on Thursday, the biggest intraday drop since January 2005, after the company issued disappointing fourth-quarter guidance. The outlook for adjusted earnings and operating margins came in below Bloomberg Consensus estimates, overshadowing what had been solid third-quarter earnings. 

EBay delivered a strong third quarter, beating estimates across the board. However, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said investors were focused on the disappointing fourth-quarter adjusted earnings-per-share forecast, which could "reflect consumer and tariff uncertainty." 

Snapshot of Third-Quarter Results (via Bloomberg): 

Adjusted EPS: $1.36, up from $1.19 a year ago and above the $1.34 estimate.

Net Revenue: $2.82 billion, a 9.5% year-over-year increase, topping the $2.73 billion consensus.

Active Buyers: 134 million, up 0.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 135.1 million.

Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): $20.11 billion, up 9.8% year-over-year, beating the $19.37 billion estimate.

  • U.S. GMV: $9.87 billion, up 13% year-over-year, versus $9.36 billion expected.

  • International GMV: $10.23 billion, up 7% year-over-year, compared with $10.06 billion estimated.

Free Cash Flow: $803 million, up 24% year-over-year, exceeding the $688.3 million estimate.

The spotlight was on eBay's fourth-quarter forecast, which guided adjusted EPS between $1.31 and $1.36, missing the Bloomberg Consensus of $1.39 and signaling margin pressure ahead. The online auction platform projected net revenue between $2.83 billion and $2.89 billion, roughly in line with the $2.8 billion estimate, pointing to modest top-line growth but a softer profit outlook ahead of Black Friday and Christmas holiday shopping season. 

Full-Year Forecast:

  • Sees adjusted EPS from continuing operations $5.42 to $5.47, estimate $5.46

  • Sees net revenue $10.97 billion to $11.03 billion, estimate $10.85 billion

"Given solid 3Q trends, we think eBay's 4Q guidance appears to be set too low to reflect consumer and tariff uncertainty," Bloomberg Intelligence analysts wrote in a note, adding that the outlook for fourth quarter adjusted operating margin "missed consensus as its strategic investments may weigh on results."

Stifel analyst said earnings were solid but this report was "overshadowed by 4Q guidance of GMV growth decelerating to +4-6% y/y (FXN), citing tough comps and the full impact of the de minimis changes." 

The dismal outlook sent shares crashing - the most in an intraday session since January 20, 2005 - down 14% by early afternoon in New York. 

$100 handle has been rejected for the second time. 

Double top?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 12:45

Mystery Blast At Russian Artillery Ammo Plant Results In 23 Dead

Zero Hedge -

Mystery Blast At Russian Artillery Ammo Plant Results In 23 Dead

There was a massive explosion of unknown cause earlier this month at a military factory in central Russia's Chelyabinsk region resulting in a high casualty rate. After many days of a search and rescue operation the death toll has risen to 23 at the Plastmass plant, Russian media has indicated in a fresh update on casualties.

The plant produces explosives and artillery ammo for the military, so the resulting disaster was extensive and significant. It ranks as among the highest death tolls in terms of a single blast incident at a military factory in Russia throughout the course of the Ukraine war.

Aftermath of Plastmass plant explosion, via X

An entire building at the plant was completely leveled in the blast, resulting in people being buried under the rubble, and making rescue efforts extremely difficult.

"The final list of victims of the tragedy includes 23 people," the regional government confirmed on Telegram, revising their earlier toll of 13 dead and 10 missing. Rescue efforts lasted a week, which involved painstaking efforts of combing through rubble.

A formal investigation has opened into potential industrial safety violations. Given the ongoing large-scale drone attacks out Ukraine, there was initial speculation the plant was hit by drones; however, authorities have pushed back that this was caused by a drone attack.

Authorities have pushed back on it being a drone attack, but this remains a possibility: 

The plant is all the way east in the Urals, which does make a drone attack at that range unlikely - though not impossible. A drone would have to have traverse at least half the land mass of Russia to make it there.

Western media sources have authenticated some of the video which emerged in the aftermath. "BBC Verify has located two videos of the explosion. One is CCTV showing the moment of the blast, captured around 3km (1.9 miles) from the sitem" BBC documented. "The other shows the fireball filmed from a car driving down an adjacent road." But there doesn't seem to have emerged any close-up footage of the moment of the explosion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 12:05

Las Vegas in September: Visitor Traffic Down 9% YoY

Calculated Risk -

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: September 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
Driven largely by slower midweek volumes, the destination saw a ‐8.8% YoY decrease in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors.

Las Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 428k in September, down ‐18.7% YoY, reflecting in part the absence of the quadrennial MINExpo (45k attendees) that was held last September, and the calendar shift for Oracle CloudWorld (30k attendees) which took place in October this year vs. September last year.

Hotel occupancy of 78.7% (down ‐5.2 pts) and ADR of $191 (‐2.9% YoY) translated to monthly RevPAR of $150 (‐9.0% YoY).
emphasis added
Las Vegas Visitor Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 8.8% compared to last September.  Visitor traffic was down 11.1% compared to September 2019.
Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 9.3% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.
Las Vegas Convention TrafficConvention traffic was down 18.7% compared to September 2024 and down 6.7% compared to September 2019.  
YTD convention traffic is down 12.3% compared to 2019.

Trump's Lawyers Seek Dismissal Of President's Criminal Conviction

Zero Hedge -

Trump's Lawyers Seek Dismissal Of President's Criminal Conviction

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Lawyers for President Donald Trump asked an appeals court in New York state this week to throw out Trump’s criminal conviction for falsifying business records.

Evidence in the case was insufficient to convict Trump, his lawyers told the New York State Supreme Court Appellate Division in a brief. They also said the court had wrongly ruled against the theory that presidential immunity means that official acts cannot be used against a president.

“In addition to all this overwhelming error, the trial was conducted by a judge who refused to recuse himself despite having made political contributions to President Trump’s electoral opponents and despite having disqualifying family conflicts,” the lawyers wrote.

“For each of these independent reasons, President Trump’s conviction must be set aside.”

Trump, at the time a candidate for president, was convicted in 2024 of falsifying business records.

After Trump won the 2024 election, Justice Juan Merchan of the New York State Supreme Court handed down a sentence with no jail time or fines, citing “legal protections afforded to the office of the president of the United States.”

Merchan, who was overseeing the case, had previously turned away Trump’s arguments against evidence in the case and assertions that the president was protected by presidential immunity.

Lawyers for Trump wrote in the new brief that jurors had improperly heard testimony about official acts by Trump, including official statements that he made on social media and alleged discussions between Trump and the attorney general about enforcing federal campaign regulations.

They pointed to a U.S. Supreme Court decision in 2024, in which justices ruled that presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts.

The ruling states, “If official conduct for which the President is immune may be scrutinized to help secure his conviction, even on charges that purport to be based only on his unofficial conduct, the ‘intended effect’ of immunity would be defeated.”

A spokesperson for Trump told news outlets in a statement on Oct. 28: “The Supreme Court’s historic decision on Immunity, the Federal and New York State Constitutions, and other established legal precedent mandate that this meritless hoax be immediately overturned and dismissed.

“President Trump will keep defeating Democrat weaponization at every turn as he focuses on his singular mission to Make America Great Again.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:45

OpenAI Reportedly Targets $1 Trillion Valuation As IPO Window Opens In 2027

Zero Hedge -

OpenAI Reportedly Targets $1 Trillion Valuation As IPO Window Opens In 2027

Earlier this week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed the topic of taking the chatbot maker public during a livestream. He said that while there are no concrete plans or set timeline, "it's fair to say an IPO is the most likely path for us.

After Altman's comments, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the matter, that OpenAI is indeed preparing for an IPO, with a securities filing expected in late 2026 and a market debut in 2027 at a potential valuation of $1 trillion

Here's more from the report:

OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising $60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.

While an OpenAI spokesperson maintains that "an IPO is not our focus," this week's restructuring news, which reduced the company's dependence on Microsoft and shifted governance under the OpenAI Foundation, only suggests preparation for public markets, as it paves the way for OpenAI to use public stock for large-scale acquisitions and capital-intensive infrastructure projects to support Altman's plan to invest trillions in AI development.

OpenAI has an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $20 billion, though losses are mounting. There was a report at the start of the week that said the Microsoft CFO internally warned about Altman's data center spending, which could unleash data center overcapacity.

Related: 

OpenAI was most recently valued at $500 billion, with major investors including Microsoft (27% stake), SoftBank, Thrive Capital, and Abu Dhabi's MGX.

However, the potential IPO window for OpenAI comes at a time when Goldman analysts forecast data center peak occupancy will begin to weaken (read here), an indication that more supply will come online amid the massive wave of data center buildouts expected next year (read here).

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:25

Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment

Zero Hedge -

Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Premiums for people buying health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces are soaring ahead of the start of the open enrollment period, new data show.

Premiums for people who are buying insurance for 2026 in state-run marketplaces are rising 17 percent, the health nonprofit KFF said on Oct. 28. Premiums for enrollees using Healthcare.gov, the federally-run marketplace, are spiking on average 30 percent.

The enrollment period for the ACA—former President Barack Obama’s health care law, commonly known as Obamacare—will open on Nov. 1 for most marketplaces.

Factors behind the increasing premiums include higher hospital costs and more people using weight loss drugs called GLP-1s, KFF said.

The increases do not take into account the impact that the expiration of enhanced subsidies would have, KFF said. Congress approved enhanced subsidies for Obamacare in 2021, and later extended them through the end of 2025.

Democrats want a continuation of the subsidies included in legislation to end the government shutdown, but Republicans have said they will not negotiate on the matter until Congress reopens the government.

Most Americans are insured through their employers, but 24 million obtained health insurance through a marketplace during the 2025 enrollment period, which ended in January. Seventeen million obtained insurance through Healthcare.gov.

The average monthly premium in 2025 was $619 before subsidies, or tax credits, and $113 a month after the credits.

More than 90 percent of people who bought insurance received one of the subsidies, which have been available since marketplaces opened in 2014 to households with annual incomes between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That ceiling was removed in 2021.

The new KFF analysis was based in part on data released on Tuesday by the Department of Health and Human Services, which started letting people who utilize Healthcare.gov go window shopping for insurance.

The average premium for 2026 after subsidies is projected to be $50 per month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a division of the department, said in a fact sheet. Similar to 2025, the tax credits are projected to cover 91 percent of premiums for the cheapest plans.

The fact sheet did not mention price increases or the looming expiration of enhanced subsidies. The division did not respond to a request for comment.

States that run their own marketplaces previously released data showing insurance prices are increasing and warning that they will rise further if Congress does not extend the enhanced credits.

Most Colorado residents who buy insurance will see an average premium increase of 101 percent, the Colorado Division of Insurance said. It estimated that about 75,000 residents will no longer buy insurance due to the jump.

Washington state officials estimated that net premiums would increase 65 percent for recipients of the enhanced subsidies if they end up expiring.

Justin Zimmerman, commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, said in a statement that without the subsidies, people “will be confronted by startlingly higher prices for coverage.”

If the credits do expire, monthly premiums will soar by 114 percent on average, according to KFF.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:05

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