Individual Economists

Waller Said To Emerges As Trump's Fed Chair Favorite As Polymarket Odds Soar

Zero Hedge -

Waller Said To Emerges As Trump's Fed Chair Favorite As Polymarket Odds Soar

For the past 6 months we have repeatedly told our readers that, contrary to media reports that it will be one of the "Two Kevins", Trump would pick current governor Chris Waller as the next Fed chair, to wit:

... and of course, our reco from June to trade Waller's odds as next Fed chair on Polymarket where he was only added thanks to us, and whose odds were virtually nil back on June 20... when we said to buy. 

So fast forward to today when anyone who listened to our reco from late June just made a lot of money, as Waller's odds are exploding this morning to record highs - and pushed him in the top position...

... following a Bloomberg report that - as we have been saying all along - Fed governor Christopher Waller "is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among President Donald Trump’s advisers as they look for a replacement for Jerome Powell."

According to the report, Trump advisers "are impressed with Waller’s willingness to move on policy based on forecasting, rather than current data, and his deep knowledge of the Fed system as a whole."

Of course, we told our readers precisely this months ago.

Waller, a career economist, reportedly attracted the attention of Trump’s economic advisers over the past year as the president talked about the economy while on the campaign trail.

Needless to say, Waller's odds jumped last week when he was one of two Fed board members to vote against the central bank’s decision to hold its benchmark rate steady for a fifth consecutive time. He and his colleague Michelle Bowman, both Trump nominees, preferred a quarter-point reduction, citing growing signs of labor-market weakness. 

The report goes on to note that Waller has met with the president’s team about the role, but has yet to meet with Trump himself. Last month, Waller told Bloomberg Television that he hasn’t yet directly heard from the president about the Fed chair role.  

“If the president contacted me and said, ‘I want you to serve,’ I would do it,” he said in July. “But he has not contacted me.”

He will. 

What about the usual suspects? Well, they are still in the running...

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, and Kevin Hassett, currently Trump’s National Economic Council director, also remain in contention for the job, the people said, which will open up when Powell’s tenure as chair expires in May 2026. 

Hassett has met with Trump to discuss the chair job and has also impressed both the president and the team, Bloomberg News has reported. Warsh interviewed for the job in 2017 but was ultimately passed over for Powell. In November, he was also considered to serve as Treasury secretary.

“President Trump will continue to nominate the most competent and experienced individuals,” White House Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “Unless it comes from President Trump himself, however, any discussion about personnel decisions should be regarded as pure speculation.”

News of Waller's fast-tracking through the ranks were viewed as clearly dovish by the market, and while 2025 rate cut odds remained flat, expectations for more 2026 rate cuts are now rising.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 11:00

Eli Lilly Shares Crash Most Since Dotcom On Disappointing Obesity Pill Data

Zero Hedge -

Eli Lilly Shares Crash Most Since Dotcom On Disappointing Obesity Pill Data

Update (1050 ET):

Eli Lilly shares plunged the most since the Dotcom bust after the drugmaker's oral obesity pill, orforglipron, met its primary endpoints but fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Not even a strong earnings report (detailed in an earlier update) was enough to lift the stock in the early New York cash trading session. 

As of 10:15 ET, Lilly shares were down as much as 14%, marking the worst decline since a 29% crash on August 9, 2000. To record the sharpest decline in 25 years, shares needed to close over 12.35%, a level last seen on October 9, 2008. 

Here's Goldman analyst Asad Haider's first take on Lilly's second-quarter results and the trial data for orforglipron: 

Overshadowing a strong 2Q earnings results, LLY announced results of the ATTAIN-1 trial for oral obesity pill orforglipron which met the primary endpoints but underwhelmed by coming at the lower-end of our and Street expectations, delivering 12.4% weight-loss at 72 weeks (vs. our 12-15% base case). Offsetting this, to some extent, the company delivered a strong set of 2Q25 results, and raised 2025 revenue guidance to $60-$62bn (vs. prior $58-$61bn).

More commentary from Wall Street desks (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Cantor, Carter Gould (overweight)

  • "The stand-out 2Q print – particularly Mounjaro OUS – and a $1.5 billion raise at the mid-point of the top-line will be overshadowed this morning by disappointing weight-loss seen in the ATTAIN-1 study of its oral orforglipron"

  • Says study data "looks a tier below that achieved with semaglutide, and comes in below the 13-15% we and the Street had expected"

  • Adds that "how much it will grow the market / franchise is now in doubt"

JPMorgan, Chris Schott (overweight)

  • Notes weight loss for the pill "was slightly below expectations (11% vs 13-15% expectation) with tolerability in line"

  • "While we expect some debate on the efficacy from today's results, it is not clear to us that ~2 pct point lower weight loss meaningfully changes the use case for orforglipron"

  • Sees stock's weakness as a buying opportunity

BMO Capital Markets, Evan David Seigerman (outperform)

  • Says study results likely underperform investor expectations but still shows a profile worthy of uptake 

  • "Overall, this hits our bearish scenario, but we still see a path forward with orforglipron's profile still usable for many patients"

Citi, Geoff Meacham (buy)

  • Says the 2Q quarter "had a solid print, though shares are weighed by conflicted opinions over orforglipron's commercial opportunity given ATTAIN data"

  • "We continue to see immense growth in the space and are buyers on weakness"

*   *   * 

 

Eli Lilly shares plunged in premarket trading after disappointing results from its new weight-loss drug (a pill, rather than an injection) overshadowed strong second-quarter results and raised full-year guidance. 

Starting with the bad news: The topline data from the 72-week trial of orforglipron was underwhelming. Patients on the highest dose lost 11.2% of their body weight, compared to 2.1% for placebo. For comparison, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy demonstrated an average of 15% weight loss over 68 weeks in late-stage trials, while Lilly's Zepbound was around 20%. 

Orforglipron's results fall short of the current standard set by Wegovy and others, overshadowing strong second-quarter results and an increased full-year guidance.

Here's a summary of Lilly's second-quarter results:

  • Adjusted EPS: Came in at $6.31, a sharp increase from $3.92 a year ago. This shows strong profit growth.

  • Revenue: Tops $15.56B, up 38% year-over-year, and beat the $14.7B Bloomberg Consensus estimate.

Product Highlights:

  • Zepbound (obesity drug): Generated $3.38B, up 46% quarter-over-quarter, and beat the estimate of $3.07B.

  • Verzenio (cancer drug): Revenue was $1.49B, up 12% y/y, slightly misses the $1.52B estimate.

  • Mounjaro (diabetes/obesity): Brought in a massive $5.20B. It remains a blockbuster.

Other Notables:

  • R&D Expenses: Spending rose to $3.34B, up 23% y/y, slightly above the estimate of $3.2B, indicating continued high investment trends in pipeline development.

In markets, Lilly shares in New York plunged as much as 12% in premarket trading. If the losses hold through the cash session, sustaining at least a 12.35% decline (last seen on Oct. 9, 2008), then it would mark the largest single-day drop since the 29% crash on August 9, 2000

Wall Street also overlooked Lilly lifting both sales and profit forecasts for the year

  • Revenue: Lilly now expects to bring in $60B to $62B this year, up from its previous forecast of $58B to $61B. Bloomberg Consensus estimate: $60.07, so the new guidance is slightly more optimistic than what Wall Street was expecting.

  • Adjusted EPS: Raised to $21.75 to $23.00, up from $20.78 to $22.28, signaling higher expected profitability.

Lilly's decline sparked a bid in Novo shares.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 10:50

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.1% Year-over-year; Weak Summer

Calculated Risk -

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 August
The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 August. ...

27 July through 2 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 69.5% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.00 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.90 (+0.4%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will likely start to decrease seasonally.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased in July; Up 3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in July
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.4, which is still an increase of 2.9% from a year ago, while lower than June levels by 0.5%. The seasonal adjustment muted the results for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values overall fell more than usual for the month. The non-adjusted price in July decreased 1.4% compared to June, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 3.0% year over year.
emphasis added
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in July (seasonally adjusted) and were up 2.9% YoY.

Trump To Allow Crypto In 401k Retirement Plans For US Workers; White House

Zero Hedge -

Trump To Allow Crypto In 401k Retirement Plans For US Workers; White House

US President Donald Trump will sign an executive order that could open the door for cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement plans, potentially reshaping how Americans invest their savings.

The White House Press Office confirmed to Cointelegraph on Thursday that the order directs the US Labor Department to reevaluate restrictions around alternative assets in defined-contribution plans, including digital assets, private equity and real estate. 

A senior White House official said the order instructs the Secretary of Labor to clarify the department’s stance on alternative assets and provide guidance on fiduciary processes for offering these types of investments in retirement portfolios.

Trump will allow crypto exposure for $12.5 trillion 401(k) market

Once implemented, Cointelegraph's Ezra Reguerra reports that the order could grant Americans access to digital assets through their 401(k) plans — part of a $12.5 trillion retirement market and a sought-after opportunity for crypto firms aiming to reach more retail investors.

The move would be a significant step forward for the crypto industry, which has long sought broader retail exposure and financial system legitimacy.

Despite institutional investors increasing crypto allocations, everyday savers have been restricted due to fiduciary risk, regulatory uncertainty and volatility concerns. 

The White House official said that Trump’s directive would call for inter-agency coordination with the US Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore rule changes that may support the adoption of alternative investments like crypto in retirement products. 

Bitcoin is rallying this morning on the report...

And yesterday saw a reversal of the recent outflows from ETFs...

Trump has final say on the executive order

On July 18, the Financial Times cited anonymous sources saying that the president is eyeing alternative investments like crypto assets for American 401(k) retirement plans.

In a previous statement to Cointelegraph, White House spokesman Kush Desai said that nothing should be deemed official unless it comes from Trump himself.

Desai said Trump is committed to restoring prosperity to everyday Americans and safeguarding their economic future. “No decisions should be deemed official, however, unless they come from President Trump himself,” Desai said. 

During a Bloomberg interview, US SEC Chair Paul Atkins said education on the risks associated with crypto as an investment is crucial.

Atkins said disclosure is key and that people should be made aware of what they are getting into. He added that he’s looking forward to what the president will do. 

Earlier this year, the Labor Department rescinded an earlier guidance for crypto in 401(k) plans. On May 28, the Labor Department revoked a 2022 guidance that urged fiduciaries to be “extremely cautious” when eyeing crypto for 401(k) retirement plans. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 09:05

DOGE Impact Accelerates As 'Deep TriState' Jobless Claims Hit 4 Year High

Zero Hedge -

DOGE Impact Accelerates As 'Deep TriState' Jobless Claims Hit 4 Year High

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose very modestly last week (from 219k to 226k) but remains basically unchanged for the last four years...

Continuing Claims jumped last week to its highest since Nov 2021...

But, the 'Deep TriState' region sees the trend of continuing claims keep rising (at its highest since Dec 2021)...

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, comparing initial jobless claims to the BLS' payrolls print is 'interesting'...

Source: Bloomberg

But if we zoom in, the relationship is tighter, BUT claims data suggests we will see significant UPWARD revisions for payrolls soon... that will be awkward for some!

Source: Bloomberg

The labor market data remains a 'choose your own adventure' playground for data-miners.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:40

10 Often-Overlooked Insights

The Big Picture -

 

Anytime someone has been successfully analyzing the markets for decades, I pay attention to their deep dives. Paul Zummo has been doing thoughtful, useful market analysis for JPM for three decades.

This is from his recent “Anniversary Insights.”

 

Here are 10 often-overlooked insights to help you make better investment decisions:

1. Be a skeptic.
Approach due diligence from the perspective of where does the offering “break”?

2. Volatility isn’t your enemy. 
Allocators often focus too much on manager volatility; in a portfolio context, it’s rarely the challenge.

3. Focus on the tail.
Being “uncorrelated” is nice; being uncorrelated in the tail is powerful.

4. Have the courage to make mistakes.
Mitigate unnecessary risks but take calculated bets.

5. Just say no.
You’re more likely to regret making a failed, poorly conceived investment than missing a good one.

6. Basis kills.
Be aware of misalignment between your longs and shorts, as two bets are riskier than one.

7. Don’t be afraid to run into fires. 
Some of the greatest investment opportunities and manager access are sourced during dislocation.

8. It’s only a great investment if you can hold it.
Stress test not only the portfolio but also how the business, financing and counterparty risk hold up under material market pressure.

9. The opposite of a long isn’t a short.
Great short sellers are wired differently; don’t expect success on the long side to necessarily translate to a successful short book.

10. Don’t make logical decisions based on flawed information. 
Take the time to ensure quality inputs and appreciate the flood of biased information during market extremes.

 

Check out “10 simple but powerful aspects of due diligence,” numbers 11-20 on this list; and “10 reminders to help you stay a step ahead,” nos 21-30 also from the full list of 30…

 

 

Source:
JPMAAM’s Pearl Anniversary Insights: 30 “pearls” of wisdom from our last 30 years
by Paul Zummo
JPM, April 2025

The post 10 Often-Overlooked Insights appeared first on The Big Picture.

US Futures, Global Markets Jump On Tariff Exemptions, Renewed Hopes For Ukraine Ceasefire

Zero Hedge -

US Futures, Global Markets Jump On Tariff Exemptions, Renewed Hopes For Ukraine Ceasefire

US equity futures are - what else - higher, and rapidly approaching a new all time high, boosted by exemptions in Trump’s plans for 100% tariffs on chips that are seen as bullish ways for most big tech firms to avoid levies. The mood was also cheered by a report that Trump and Putin are expected to meet for summit talks in the next few days while
hopes for a rate cut rise some more as additional  Fed officials have dovish pivots. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are up 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.7% with Mag7 higher led by AAPL while Semis are the global standout. Eli Lilly & shares plunged after the drugmaker reported underwhelming study results for its weight-loss pill. Shares of its main European rival, Novo Nordisk A/S, soared. Cyclicals are poised to rip, although as JPM notes "today appears to be setting up for an ‘Everything Rally’." Bond yields are down 1bp across the curve but 10Y is +1bp; USD is flat but has erased ~25bp of overnight losses. Today’s macro data focus is on Jobless Claims, 1Y Inflation Expectations, Nonfarm Productivity, Labor Costs, Consumer Credit, and Inventories. While none, ex-Claims, are market moving it will help sharpen the macro picture on the labor market and consumer. At 12pm, Trump will sign an executive order that aims to allow private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Apple +2%, Nvidia +1.4%, Meta +0.9%, Alphabet +0.6%, Microsoft +0.6%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.1%).. 

  • Airbnb (ABNB) is down 6% after warning that growth rates may not keep up later this year due to tough year-ago comparisons.
  • Aris Water Solutions (ARIS), which helps manage water produced from oil drilling, climbs 20% after the company agreed to be bought by Western Midstream Partners in a ~$1.5b equity-and-cash transaction.
  • Corning (GLW) gains 5% after Apple said it’s planning to onshore 100% of iPhone and Watch cover glass production to the US as part of an expanded $2.5 billion partnership with the high-tech glassmaker.
  • CRH (CRH) jumps 8% after the building materials company narrowed its full-year adjusted Ebitda guidance to the high end of its prior range.
  • Crocs (CROX) falls 13% after forecasting that 3Q revenue will be down about 11% to 9%.
  • DoorDash (DASH) gains 8.9% after the food-delivery company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive forecast for Marketplace gross order value.
  • Duolingo (DUOL) soars 23% after the language-learning software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics and raised its full-year forecast.
  • Dutch Bros (BROS) is up 18% after the restaurant chain lifted its total revenue forecast for the full year.
  • Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) plunges 12% after the company gave disappointing data from a late-stage trial of its new weight-loss pill.
  • Fortinet (FTNT) tumbles 21% after the software company gave an update to its firewall refresh cycle. At least three analysts downgraded their rating on the stock saying the product refresh cycle is now looking like a “much smaller catalyst than expected.”
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) gains 2% after the space services company said it would buy privately held aerospace company KinetX, expanding its deep-space navigation and flight dynamics capability.
  • Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) gains 12% as the company preached confidence in a turnaround plan under new management.
  • Sarepta (SRPT) is up 7% after the drugmaker reported second quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • SharkNinja (SN) rises 5% after the home-appliance maker boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
  • Sunrun (RUN) jumps 18% after the solar energy company reported second-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Upwork (UPWK) shares are up 12% after the online recruitment company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
  • Vistra Corp. (VST) falls 7% after the residential electricity provider operating posted revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.

Market sentiment got a boost earlier after Trump announced that companies producing goods in the US, such as Apple, would be eligible for exemptions from his proposed 100% levy on chip imports. Increasing bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut are also fueling optimism in stocks as sweeping new tariffs to reshape global trade officially took hold Thursday. Ironically the only major US semiconductor stock, Intel, plunged after Trump sa id on Truth Social CEO its has to resign.

“Risk sentiment is positive with a focus on peace deal hopes for Ukraine,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at Bank of New York Mellon. “Also supporting the dollar down/stocks up narrative is ongoing September rate cut expectations for the FOMC. However, investors still face a pushback from the uncertainty over tariffs ahead.” 

This morning, the BoE delivered a hawkish 25bps cut, with the vote split 5:4 for 25bps vs hold, and the statement noting that timing/extent of further cuts will be based on continued improvements in underlying inflation. The vote was the first ever revote in 28 years after the 4:4:1 vote in the first round failed to reach a majority.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark advanced more than 1%, with the the travel and leisure sector outperforming. A basket of equities exposed to Ukraine rose, while defense shares dropped, after the Kremlin said that presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet for summit talks within the next few days. Upbeat earnings from some of the region’s biggest companies helped boost sentiment, even after German industrial production suffered its biggest drop in almost a year in another setback for Europe’s largest economy.  Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

  • InterContinental Hotels jumps as much as 9.2%, to the highest level since March, after the company reported that revenue per available room for the first half of the year increased 1.8%. Pretax profit topped the analyst consensus
  • Maersk gains as much as 6%, the most since May, after the Danish shipping and logistics giant boosted its full-year guidance and beat second-quarter estimates. Analysts say the guidance raise, while somewhat expected, is welcome
  • Allianz gains as much as 4.3%, the most since April, after the German insurance group posted a strong second-quarter showing, with operating profit coming in ahead of expectations
  • KBC jumps as much as 6.1%, trading at their highest level since 2007, after the Belgian bank beat expectations in the second quarter and improved its guidance for the full year, which analysts say will lead to consensus upgrades
  • Harbour Energy shares rise as much as 21%, the steepest gain since December 2023, after the UK oil and gas company boosted guidance for production and cash flow, while announcing announcing a $100m buyback
  • LINK Mobility gains as much as 9.7% after DNB Carnegie “significantly” raised its estimates for the Norwegian communications technology firm and reiterated its buy rating, while nearly doubling its price target
  • Serco shares jump as much as 8.8%, to the highest since November 2014, after the outsourcing company reported earnings ahead of expectations and a strong order intake, accompanied by a new £50 million share buyback
  • European defense stocks slump, while stocks with exposure to Ukraine and Russia gain, as traders take a cue from President Donald Trump’s diplomatic push to end the Ukraine war and US efforts to punish buyers of Russian crude. Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 7.2%, the most in two months, after analysts described the German defense firm’s results as weak. Jefferies points to soft orders and sales below expectations
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec shares plunge as much as 14% to the lowest since August 2017 after analysts said the German health-care supplier’s 3Q Ebita miss was weighed down by its microsurgery business
  • Hikma shares drop as much as 10% in London, the most intraday since February, after the pharmaceutical company missed core Ebidta estimates and lowered the margin guidance for its Injectables division for the full year
  • Freenet shares fall as much as 9.5%, the most since May, after the German-listed mobile communications service provider cut its average revenue per user. Analysts at Berenberg note a marginally disappointing set of results
  • Deutsche Telekom shares slide as much as 6.1% after the telecom operator reported sales and Ebitda that missed estimates in its home market Germany, with the company flagging intense rivalry in the local broadband market
  • Siemens shares fall as much as 1.9% after the German industrial company posted what analysts called mixed results, highlighting a weaker performance in the Digital Industries division. Shares are still up almost 16% YTD
  • Scout24 shares drop as much as 6.1% after the classifieds company reported detailed 2Q results. The shares had gained earlier in the week when the company raised its full-year guidance in a pre-release

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks rose, led by technology stocks as some of the region’s largest chipmakers were expected to win exemptions from Donald Trump’s threatened 100% chip tariff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1%, rising for the fourth straight day. Taiwan’s benchmark rose more than 2%, with notable gains in most other markets around the region. Thailand’s key index was on the brink of entering a bull market.  Chipmakers TSMC and Samsung were among the biggest boosts to the MSCI index as investors saw their US manufacturing operations as freeing them from Trump’s newest levies. A gauge of regional tech stocks climbed by the most since June 24. Meanwhile, Indian equities fell after the US moved to double the tariff on imports from the South Asian nation to 50%. The higher rate is seen further hurting sentiment on a market already underperforming Asian peers on disappointing corporate earnings.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Antipodean currencies outperform their G-10 peers, rising 0.4% each against the greenback. EUR/USD briefly extended gains on news that Putin and Trump would meet within days, hitting a session high of almost $1.17, before falling back to $1.1648. GBPUSD rose, putting it on track for a fifth day of gains against the dollar, its longest winning streak since April. 

In rates, treasuries are steady, with yields broadly within one basis point of Wednesday’s close, despite slide in gilts which sharply underperform following a 4-4-1 Bank of England vote to cut rates by 25bp. US yields steady, marginally cheaper on the day with 10-year near 4.245%, outperforming gilts by around 4bp in the sector. UK 2-year yields higher by around 6bp on the day up to around 3.88% following the announcement. Bunds outperform, pushing German 10-year yields down 2 bps to 2.63%. In the US, focus turns to early data and then a $25 billion 30-year new-issue bond sale at 1pm New York time, which follows a 1.1bp tail on Wednesday’s 10-year note auction.

In commodities, oil prices erase an earlier drop following the Putin-Trump meeting news, with Brent now up 0.5% near $67.22 a barrel. Gold rises $8 to around $3,377/oz. 

Looking ahead today, Trump will sign an executive order that aims to allow private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s. Data-wise we have 2Q preliminary nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), June final wholesale inventories (10am), July NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and June consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Bostic in a virtual fireside chat on monetary policy (10am)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.6%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%
  • DAX +1.7%
  • CAC 40 +1.2%
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.23%
  • VIX -0.6 points at 16.13
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1202.97
  • euro +0.2% at $1.1678
  • WTI crude +0.6% at $64.73/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump said, regarding the Fed pick, that the interview process has started and it is probably down to three candidates, while he added that the two Kevins are very good, and a temporary governor is to be named in the next few days.
  • U.S. trading partners are lobbying the White House for exemptions to sweeping new tariffs that went into force on Thursday, as countries seek ways to muffle the impact on their economies of President Trump’s push to reorder global trade. The diplomatic effort shows months of trade talks are far from over despite the run of agreements trumpeted by the White House in the past month. WSJ
  • President Trump has claimed that his sweeping tariff regime will reshore American companies and revive manufacturing in the U.S. So far, that hasn’t happened. Economic activity tied to manufacturing has shrunk for most of Trump’s second term. From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted. The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 score that differentiates growth and decline. WSJ
  • The Kremlin said Thursday that a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has been agreed in principle and will happen in the “coming days,” teeing up their first in-person encounter of Trump's second term. NBC
  • Trump said he may punish China with additional tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil. Trade adviser Peter Navarro played down the likelihood, saying higher duties “may hurt the US.” BBG
  • Trump will sign an executive order today that aims to allow private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s. BBG
  • China’s exports grew at a faster clip in July, showing that U.S. tariffs so far haven’t curtailed China’s export machine, although trade with America has fallen. Trade numbers for Jul come in ahead of expectations, including exports (+7.2% vs. the Street +5.6%) and imports (+4.1% vs. the Street -1%). WSJ
  • Japan cut its growth forecast for the current fiscal year as US tariffs and persistent inflation weigh on the economy. BBG
  • Caught between rising costs from tariffs and belt-tightening consumers, big retailers are clashing with the producers of consumer brands such as Nivea-maker Beiersdorf and brewer Heineken as they look to avoid sticker shock that could hurt sales. The disputes - which have dented some brands' sales - underscore the challenge for consumer goods makers and sellers, with inflation and tariffs pushing up input costs and price spikes in commodities such as coffee. RTRS
  • Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said there's cautiousness which is tempering growth but not stalling out, while she commented that they will likely need to adjust policy in the coming months and can't wait for perfect clarity to act. Daly also commented that tariffs are unlikely to boost inflation persistently in a way that monetary policy would need to offset. She also noted that the labour market has softened and additional slowing would be unwelcome. Furthermore, Daly said they need to recalibrate monetary policy to match risks to the Fed’s goals.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump said they are going to be putting a very large tariff on chips and semiconductors, which will be at approximately 100%, but added "if you're building in the US, there will be no charge."
  • US President Trump posted late on Wednesday that "RECIPROCAL TARIFFS TAKE EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT! BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, LARGELY FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE UNITED STATES FOR MANY YEARS, LAUGHING ALL THE WAY, WILL START FLOWING INTO THE USA."
  • US official said the 15% tariff will stack on top of pre-existing tariff rates applied to imports from Japan, unlike in the case of the European Union, according to Kyodo.
  • South Korea claimed Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS) will not be subject to 100% US tariffs, while Taiwan said TSMC (2330 TT) is exempt from US President Trump's 100% chip tariff.
  • Apple (AAPL) suppliers are reportedly betting on a tariff carve-out for India-made iPhones, according to Nikkei sources.
  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC): "The effective container-weighted import tariff on US imports is estimated at 24% as per the Presidential Executive Order dated 31 July, up from 5% in 2024"

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as reciprocal tariffs took effect overnight and following the latest tariff threat from US President Trump who plans to impose 'approximately 100%' tariffs on chips and semiconductors unless manufacturers build in the US. ASX 200 pulled back from record highs despite the surprise growth of imports from Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 pared initial losses and briefly reclaimed 41,000 amid a busy slate of earnings and as markets shrugged off comments from a US official that the US will not exempt Japan from stacking 15% tariffs on top of existing levies. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp ultimately kept afloat after the latest Chinese trade data which showed stronger-than-expected exports and surprise growth in the nation's imports.

Top Asian News

  • BoK Governor Rhee said the US trade deal takes a huge burden off monetary policy at the August meeting.
  • SoftBank Group (9984 JT) Q1 2025 (JPY): Net Sales 1.82tln (exp. 1.82tln), Net Income 421.82bln (exp. 158.23bln), sees FY dividend at 44.0 (exp. 44.00)
  • Baidu (9888 HK) to launch new advanced reasoning model by end of month, according to WSJ.
  • Magnitude 6.2 earthquake hits sea off Taiwan's north-eastern coast, according to central weather administration.
  • Japan Government Official says, a private-sector member of Government Economic Council, says, are worried that the BoJ being behind the curve vs inflation, which is already affecting the livelihood of people.
  • S&P affirms China's Sovereign rating at A+/A-; Outlook Stable. Overview: Strong fiscal stimulus will help keep China's economic growth resilient amid continued headwinds from the weak property sector and new pressures on external trade. "We affirmed our 'A+' long-term and 'A-1' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on China." The stable outlook on the long-term rating reflects our view that the Chinese economy will return to self-sustaining growth of above 4% over the next few years, paving the way for smaller annual increases in net general government debt. Downside scenario: "We could lower the ratings if we believe the government will continue with larger fiscal stimulus measures than we currently expect over the next three to five years. This would likely stem from more persistent downward pressure on economic growth than we currently expect. The resulting fiscal impact would cause the net change in general government debt to stay close to, or above, 6% of GDP annually." Upside scenario: "We may raise our ratings on China if fiscal consolidation is faster than what we anticipate, resulting in a persistent decline in net general government debt to below 30% of GDP, or government interest payments falling below 5% of revenue consistently, or both."

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.9%) opened mostly higher, albeit with very modest gains. Since then, indices gradually edged higher, then followed by a more pronounced bid following commentary from a Russian Kremlin aide, who said an agreement had been made for a Presidential meeting between Trump and Putin, in the next few days.
European sectors opened mixed but now hold a slight positive bias. Insurance takes the top spot, lifted by post-earnings strength in the likes of Allianz (+2%) and Zurich Insurance (+1%). Elsewhere, Travel & Leisure has been buoyed by upside in IHG, after it reported strong H1 metrics; European gambling names are also broadly higher today, in tandem with upside in US-peer DraftKings which reported a record rev. and EBITDA. The Tech sector finishes off the top 3, benefiting from a) the risk tone and, b) US President Trump announcing that the US will slap 100% tariffs on imported chips, but will exempt those firms who manufacture in the US/have committed to do so. On this, ASML (+2%) has gained, given the proposition incentivises relocating to the US, which may boost demand for manufacturing units.

Top European News

  • Germany's VDA says the EU-US trade deal has brought no clarity or improvement for the German auto industry.

FX

  • DXY is down for a second day in a row and extending its move below its 200DMA at 98.21. The USD is continuing to be hampered as markets contemplate Trump's next move with regards to personnel at the Fed. Note, the USD may also be losing ground as geopolitical tensions recede a touch with the Russia and Ukraine conflict potentially nearing a conclusion. Today's data docket includes weekly claims data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Tracked and the NY Fed SCE release. Next downside target for DXY comes via the 29th July low at 97.49.
  • EUR is a touch firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD in a week that has been lacking in incremental drivers for the Eurozone. Some positivity for the bloc may be gleaned from developments on the geopolitical front following Wednesday's discussion between the US and Russia, which was said to have made progress and with President Trump intending to meet Russian President Putin as soon as next week. EUR/USD has extended its rise on a 1.16 handle but is yet to crack the 1.17 mark with the pair topping out at 1.1698.
  • In what has been an indecisive start to the week for USD/JPY, the Yen is eking out mild gains vs. the greenback. This comes in spite of comments from a US official that the now-effective 15% tariff will stack on top of pre-existing tariff rates applied to imports from Japan, unlike in the case of the European Union. USD/JPY delved as low as 146.70 overnight but has since made its way back onto a 147 handle.
  • GBP is relatively steady vs. the USD as markets brace for the upcoming BoE rate decision, minutes and MPR. Analysts are virtually unanimous in expecting the BoE to lower the Base Rate by 25bps to 4.0% with markets assigning a 93% probability of such an outcome. The move would follow the MPC’s preference for cutting at a quarterly pace and alongside MPR meetings. With regards to the decision to lower rates, consensus looks for a 7-2 outcome. With the likes of Mann and potentially one of Pill or Greene to vote for an unchanged rate. However, when looking at the magnitude of the vote split, this could lead to a three-way split in the event that MPC dove Dhingra and one of Ramsden or Taylor backs a larger 50bps reduction.
  • Antipodeans are both are building on the gains seen on Wednesday vs. the USD with upside today following on from encouraging Chinese trade data which showed a surprise growth in imports and a larger-than-expected increase in exports.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1345 vs exp. 7.1709 (Prev. 7.1409)

Fixed Income

  • USTs are flat and ultimately awaiting today's risk events which include; jobless claims, unit labour costs, Atlanta Fed GDP Now and then a 30yr auction. As a reminder, the prior day saw a soft 10yr outing after a poor 3yr earlier. No further insight into the potential fat finger in USTs seen on Wednesday in the run-up to supply, where 30 minute volume spiked to over 300k from sub-100k throughout the session to that point. As a reminder, the move also occurred alongside a move in the implied odds (via Polymarket) for the next Fed Chair, with NEC Director Hassett’s jumping by just under bp and overtaking former Fed Governor Warsh as the front-runner. his morning, action (and volumes) has been much more minimal with USTs in a very narrow 112-03+ to 112-07 band.
  • Bunds are a little lower. No reaction to the morning’s Industrial and Trade data from Germany for June. Though, Bunds did pick up a little bit a handful of minutes after the data came through. The soft set of Industrial data, to the lowest since May 2020, potentially influenced; a series that may have factored into the pressure seen in the DAX 40 future at the time. Since, newsflow has slowed a little but more recently Bunds have edged a little lower back towards lows.
  • Gilts were flat but more recently some pressure has been seen. The BoE is expected to cut rates and likely via a 7-2 split to ease. However, the full vote breakdown could see a three-way split. Mann and potentially one other (possibly Pill or Greene) likely to vote for unchanged, while Dhingra and possibly the likes of Taylor and/or Ramsden voting for a 50bps cut. Leaving a majority of Bailey, Lombardelli, Breeden and then possibly one or more of Pill, Green, Taylor or Ramsden; depending on the above. Benchmark opened lower by 14 ticks before extending another six to a 92.45 trough. Since, it has reverted back towards Wednesday’s 92.65 close into the BoE.
  • Spain sells EUR 5bln vs exp. EUR 4.0-5.0bln 2.40% 2028, 3.20% 2035 & 3.45% 2043 Bono and EUR 0.49bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.0% 2030 I/L Bono.
  • France sells EUR 10.499bln vs exp. EUR 8.5-10.5bln 1.25% 2034, 1.25% 2036, 0.50% 2040, and 4.00% 2055 OAT.

Commodities

  • Crude futures are firmer after choppy trade earlier. This follows the decline on Wednesday amid Russia/Ukraine optimism following the discussion between the US and Russia, which is said to have made progress and with President Trump intending to meet Russian President Putin as soon as next week. Russia's Kremlin this morning confirmed that US President Trump and his Russian counterpart, Putin, will meet, and preparations for a summit in the next few days are underway. WTI currently resides in a 64.12-65.08/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.70-67.58/bbl range.
  • Precious metals are rebounding following the prior day's losses, with spot gold marginally gaining after recent dollar weakness and as reciprocal tariffs took effect. Some pressure seen on the aforementioned Trump-Putin meeting announcement, which saw the yellow-metal swing from highs back towards overnight ranges. Currently in a USD 3,365.30-3,397.58/oz range.
  • Copper futures are rangebound with a slightly firmer tilt amid the softer dollar, risk appetite in stocks, and the encouraging Chinese trade data overnight, which showed stronger-than-expected exports and surprise growth in the nation's imports. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,672.90-9,740.00/t range.
  • Kuwait's oil minister expects crude prices to remain above USD 72/bbl; says the market is healthy with moderate demand growth.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Kremlin Aide Ushakov says an agreement has been reached to hold a meeting with US President Trump and Russian President Putin in the next few days. Meeting venue has been agreed and will be announced later. US Envoy Witkoff touched on an idea of a three-way meeting between Trump-Zelensky-Putin; Moscow left it without comment.
  • US President Trump said they had very good talks with Russian President Putin and there's a good chance that there will be a meeting very soon, while he also commented that more secondary sanctions are coming regarding Russia.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said it was a good day regarding efforts to end the Ukraine war but there is still a lot of work ahead and many impediments to overcome.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he discussed Witkoff's visit to Moscow in a call with Trump and said that Russia should end this war, while he also commented that pressure on Russia is working and it's crucial they do not deceive them, as well as commented that it looks like Russia is more inclined to a ceasefire.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky calls on Russian President Putin to hold meeting to 'end war', via Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Other

  • South Korean military said South Korea and the US are to conduct major joint military exercises beginning on August 18th although an official stated that some parts of the joint drills are postponed to September, while the military drills will test an upgraded response to a heightened North Korea nuclear threat.

US Event Calendar

  • :30 am: 2Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2%, prior -1.5%
  • 8:30 am: 2Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.5%, prior 6.6%
  • 8:30 am: Aug 2 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 222k, prior 218k
  • 8:30 am: Jul 26 Continuing Claims, est. 1950k, prior 1946k
  • 10:00 am: Jun F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 3:00 pm: Jun Consumer Credit, est. 7.5b, prior 5.1b

Central Bank Speakers

  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Monetary Policy

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Tech stocks have continued to drive a buoyant mood in markets, with the Mag-7 (+1.93%) reaching a new all-time high. Momentum was also supported by strong earnings and rising hopes of imminent rate cuts as Fed speakers turned more dovish in response to last Friday’s weak payroll print. The upbeat tone has continued overnight despite Trump outlining a plan for 100% tariffs on semiconductors, with the impact of these mitigated by carveouts.

US equity markets had a strong day yesterday with S&P 500 (+0.73%) and Nasdaq (+1.21%) closing less than 1% from record highs, while the Mag-7 (+1.93%) was lifted by a +5.09% spike in Apple’s shares. That came as the company announced additional $100bn of investments into the US, particularly in new manufacturing. This comes on top of an earlier pledge of $500bn investment over four years and as the company has sought to reduce tariff risks. During a White House event with Apple CEO Tim Cook, Trump then said that “we’ll be putting a tariff of approximately 100% on chips and semiconductors”. However, he added that companies that are building, or “have committed to build”, capacity to move production to the US would face no charge. Imports of electronics have so far been exempt from tariffs.

While it’s not clear exactly how it will work, the new floated exemption has added a sense of relief for markets overnight, with Taiwan’s chip giant TSMC up +4.44% and Korea’s Samsung +1.74%. In terms of the major indices, the Nikkei (+0.68%) and the KOSPI (+0.72%) are visibly higher, while the Hang Seng (+0.52%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.12%) are seeing more modest gains. Futures on both the S&P 500 (+0.27%) and the NASDAQ (+0.31%) are also higher overnight.

The other major tariff news yesterday was a new US executive order outlining an additional 25% tariff on India in response to its purchases of Russian oil, which would bring the total levies on Indian exports to 50%. India’s government called the latest tariffs “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”. The executive order also leaves the door open for tariffs on other countries “directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil”. Trump said there could be “a lot more” secondary sanctions related to Russian oil, including potentially on China, but that this would depend on how talks proceed. Brent crude fell for a fifth consecutive session (-1.11% to $66.89/bbl) yesterday, the longest such run since May, though it is up +0.8% this morning. In addition to India being the only target so far, the sanguine oil reaction came as the additional 25% tariffs will kick in only after 21 days, leaving ample time for negotiations.

Later in the day we heard that Trump could meet Russia’s President Putin as soon as next week, with reports citing a call that Trump had with European leaders after his envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow. Trump himself said there was a “very good chance” he would meet soon with Putin and Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy to try and broker peace, though he was more ambiguous on the likely timing. Secretary of State Rubio said that “a lot has to happen” before Trump meets with Putin.

In the latest news on the Fed’s leadership, Trump said he will likely nominate a temporary Fed governor after Kugler’s departure on August 8, adding that the decision would come “over the next two, three days” and that there were “probably” three candidates for the role. A temporary replacement for the remainder of Kugler’s term until January would avoid the person being seen as a likely candidate for Fed Chair once Powell’s term ends in May.

Meanwhile, Fed officials on Wednesday struck a more dovish tone in response to Friday’s soft jobs report. Fed Governor Cook said the report was concerning, with significant downward revisions “somewhat typical of turning points” in the economy. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that in case of a slowdown in the economy, a cut might be appropriate “in the near term”, whileSan Francisco President Daly said “we will likely need to adjust policy in the coming months” as additional labour market slowing was “unwelcome”. Pricing of a September Fed rate cut ticked up from 90% to 95% amid the shifting rhetoric, with 60bps of cuts priced by the December meeting (+2.0bps on the day).

In turn, 2yr Treasuries rallied by -1.0bps, but yields moved higher at the long end, with the 10yr up +1.5bps to 4.23%, and 30yr up +3.8bps to 4.82%. That came amid a soft 10yr auction that saw $42bn of bonds issued +1.1bps above the pre-sale yield, with the bid-to-cover ratio at its lowest level in 12 months. 10yr yields are another +1.5bps higher overnight.

Increased rate cut expectations saw the dollar index (-0.61%) fall to its lowest level in nearly two weeks. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc has been the worst performing G10 currency this week as Switzerland’s President Karin Keller-Sutter left Washington yesterday without securing any easing of the 39% US tariffs that came into force along with other new country rates overnight.

Back to yesterday’s equity moves, there was some softness beneath the headline gains with more than half of the S&P 500 constituents lower on the day, led by a decline in healthcare stocks (-1.52%). The Philadelphia semiconductor index (-0.20%) underperformed following underwhelming results from AMD (-6.42%) and Super Micro Computer (-18.29%). Other notable post-earnings movers included McDonald’s (+2.98%), whose same store sales grew more strongly (3.8% yoy vs. +2.6% expected), and Walt Disney (-2.66%), which saw profit guidance weighed down by its movie and TV businesses. Over in Europe, the Stoxx 600 (-0.06%) was again dragged down by another decline for Novo Nordisk (-5.36%) as it released its latest earnings. The pharma giant’s shares are now down -36% since its profit warning last Tuesday. However, most European indices gained with the DAX (+0.33%), CAC (+0.18%), FTSEMIB (+0.65%) and FTSE 100 (+0.24%) all in the green. In one of the more unusual stories, pharma conglomerate Bayer AG (-9.92%) was the worst performer in Stoxx 600 in part as it revealed that its earnings had been recently inflated by football player transfer receipts stemming from its ownership of Bayer Leverkusen. I will let Jim opine on whether Liverpool’s club record signing of Florian Wirtz in June which boosted Bayer’s bottom line was a good deal.

European government bonds saw a modest sell off on Wednesday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.7bps), OATs (+2.7bps) and BTPs (+2.1bps) all higher. Pricing of ECB rate cuts ticked lower, with amount of easing priced by year-end down -1.3bps to 15bps as outgoing Austria central bank governor Holzmann said he saw no reason for another rate cut.

Staying with central banks, today the Bank of England is expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut to 4.00%, which would mark the fifth cut in the BoE’s gradual easing cycle. Our UK economist Sanjay Raja expects divisions on the committee, foreseeing a 2-5-2 vote across no change, -25bp and -50bp options. You can see Sanjay’s full preview here.

Turning to the data, yesterday was quiet in the US but investors will be dissecting today’s jobless claims for whether evidence of US labour market deterioration is visible outside of payrolls. In Europe, June factory orders in Germany surprised to the downside at -1.0% mom (vs. +1.1% expected), with components such as transport equipment (-23%), autos (-7.6%) and fabricated metal products (-13%) slumping. The moves suggest a drag from tariffs with foreign orders weighing while domestic orders rose by almost 4%. On a more positive note, euro area retail sales pointed to a resilient consumer, rising by an expected +0.3% mom in June but with the yoy reading at a stronger +3.1% thanks to revisions (+2.6% expected).

In goods trade data out of China this morning, both exports (+7.2% yoy vs +5.6% exp.) and imports (+4.1% vs -1.0% exp.) grew more strongly than expected in July. So suggesting a resilient aggregate trade performance of the world’s primary manufacturing hub, even as China’s exports to the US fell by -22% yoy.

To the day ahead, the main highlight in Europe will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, along with the subsequent press conference with Governor Bailey. In terms of data, we'll have the initial and continuing jobless claims out in the US, while in Germany the highlight is June industrial production. Looking at earnings, the focus will be on Eli Lilly and Toyota

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:30

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 226,000

Calculated Risk -

The DOL reported:
In the week ending August 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 221,000 to 221,250.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 220,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

Kremlin Confirms Trump-Putin Meeting 'In Coming Days'

Zero Hedge -

Kremlin Confirms Trump-Putin Meeting 'In Coming Days'

The Kremlin has on Thursday belatedly confirmed that a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has been agreed to and will take place in the "coming days". The White House first unveiled it yesterday, as reported in the NY Times, but it was as yet unclear to degree to which Moscow was on board.

But now Russia has agreed "in principle". According to a statement of Putin’s longtime foreign policy aide, Yury Ushakov, "At the suggestion of the American side, an agreement in principle was made to hold a bilateral meeting at the highest level in the coming days."

He laid out that the idea of a Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting (which apparently Washington pushed for) "for some reason was mentioned by Washington yesterday" but "not specifically discussed,” Ushakov added, explaining that the Russian side "left this option completely, completely without comment."

Meeting during Trump's first term. Sputnik/Reuters

This was in reference to the intense three-hour meeting that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff had with both Putin and his top negotiator and investment chief Kirill Dmitriev.

"We have launched work to discuss the parameters of such a meeting and the venue for it jointly with our American colleagues now," Ushakov said additionally.

"By the way, I’d like to note that the venue, too, has been agreed in principle and will be announced a bit later," he added. Putin's office has described that the interest in a face-to-face meeting, which will mark the first of Trump's second term - was mutual. One location being already floated as a possibility is the United Arab Emirates.

As for a Zelensky meeting, President Trump has indicated this would happen just bilaterally soon following his sit-down with Putin. Trump had been quoted Thursday as saying "that there will be a meeting [with Putin] very soon" and "that we could be ending" the Ukraine conflict. "We haven’t determined where [the meeting would take place], but we had some very good talks with President Putin today." 

But this is all a bit surprising as nothing has fundamentally changed in the warring sides' stances. Moscow has not backed off its maximalist war goals, and will not budge from giving up the four eastern territories it has long declared part of the Russan Federation after a popular referendum, or what was fundamentlally annexation vote.

The Zelensky government hasn't issued any indication that it's ready for territorial concessions - and it even wants to keep laying claim to Crimea. Meanwhile the tariffs offensive continues, with more taking effect overnight:

After months of threats, delays and extensions, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs took effect overnight, raising the overall average tariff rate to more than 17%, its highest since the Great Depression. Everything from European Union appliances and Japanese cars to food, furniture and toys from China TVs from South Korea will be hit. However, selected oil and gas imports, along with some smartphones and goods covered by a pre-existing trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, are not affected.

Trump has indicated his trade offensive won’t stop. The president said he still plans to impose import taxes on pharmaceutical products and semiconductors. Amid that pressure, Apple said it plans to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years amid pressure from Trump to shift its supply chain to American soil.

Meanwhile, Trump hiked the tariff rate for India to 50% because of the nation’s purchases of Russian oil, and he said he could raise the European Union’s tariff level to 35% from 15% if it reneges on an investment commitment.

As for the upcoming meeting, Anti-Kremlin punits have accused Putin of using the whole dialogue with Washington as a way to keep stalling - all while sustaining battlefield gains - and to gain a reputational boost. They see Putin as having everything to gain with a direct meeting with Trump, in terms of global standing and domestic opinion - but he's not expected to make any significant compromise.

At this point from Moscow's point of view the fate of the war is being decided, but wholly on the battlefield. Ukraine's near-daily cross-border drone attacks also means the Russian military is unlikely to take its foot of the gas pedal operationally.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:25

"Chat Control" - EU Proposal To Scan All Private Messages Gains Momentum

Zero Hedge -

"Chat Control" - EU Proposal To Scan All Private Messages Gains Momentum

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

A controversial European Union proposal dubbed “Chat Control” is regaining momentum, with 19 out of 27 EU member states reportedly backing the measure.

The plan would mandate that messaging platforms, including WhatsApp, Signal and Telegram, must scan every message, photo and video sent by users starting in October, even if end-to-end encryption is in place, popular French tech blogger Korben wrote on Monday.

Denmark reintroduced the proposal on July 1, the first day of its EU Council presidency. France, once opposed, is now in favor, Korben said, citing Patrick Breyer, a former member of the European Parliament for Germany and the European Pirate Party.

Belgium, Hungary, Sweden, Italy and Spain are also in favor, while Germany remains undecided. However, if Berlin joins the majority, a qualified council vote could push the plan through by mid-October, Korben said.

A qualified majority in the EU Council is achieved when two conditions are met. First, at least 55 percent of member states, meaning 15 out of 27, must vote in favor. Second, those countries must represent at least 65% of the EU’s total population.

EU Chat Control bill finds support. Source: Pavol Luptak

Pre-encryption scanning on devices

Instead of weakening encryption, the plan seeks to implement client-side scanning, meaning software embedded in users’ devices that inspects content before it is encrypted.

“A bit like if the Post Office came to read all your letters in your living room before you put them in the envelope,” Korben said.

He added that the real target isn’t criminals, who use encrypted or decentralized channels, but ordinary users whose private conversations would now be open to algorithmic scrutiny.

The proposal cites the prevention of child sexual abuse material (CSAM) as its justification.

However, it would result in “mass surveillance by means of fully automated real-time surveillance of messaging and chats and the end of privacy of digital correspondence,” Breyer wrote.

Beyond scanning, the package includes mandatory age verification, effectively removing anonymity from messaging platforms. Digital freedom groups are asking citizens to contact their MEPs, sign petitions and push back before the law becomes irreversible.

An infographic explaining the proposed EU Chat Control bill. Source: Patrick Breyer

France faces societal collapse over censorship

Last month, Telegram founder Pavel Durov warned that France risks societal collapse if it continues down a path of political censorship and regulatory overreach. Durov was arrested in France in August 2024 after being accused of failing to moderate his app to reduce criminality.

He also alleged that French intelligence officials approached him earlier this year with requests to censor pro-conservative content ahead of the May 2025 Romanian election, a request he says he refused.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:20

Trump Demands Intel CEO "Must Resign" Over Alleged China Ties Cited In Senator Cotton's Letter

Zero Hedge -

Trump Demands Intel CEO "Must Resign" Over Alleged China Ties Cited In Senator Cotton's Letter

President Trump must have read U.S. Republican Senator Tom Cotton's letter, sent to Intel's Board on Wednesday, about the chipmaker's new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan's ties to Chinese firms, and a recent criminal case involving his former company, Cadence Design. That's because Trump just fired off a shocking new Truth Social post moments ago.

"The CEO of INTEL is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately," Trump wrote on his social media platform. 

The president continued, "There is no other solution to this problem. Thank you for your attention to this problem!" 

In a letter addressed to Intel Chairman Frank Yeary, Cotton raised the question whether Intel's Board knew about subpoenas issued to Cadence during Tan's tenure, and whether Tan has fully disclosed or divested from Chinese chip firms linked to the Chinese military or Communist Party.

Writing to "express concern about the security and integrity of Intel's operations and its potential impact on U.S. national security", Cotton said in the letter. 

Cotton noted that Tan recently pleaded guilty to illegally transferring sensitive chip design technology to a Chinese military university and semiconductor firm while working at Cadence. 

Cotton also criticized Intel's decision to hire Tan despite these associations, especially given the company's nearly $8 billion award under the CHIPS Act and its role in the Secure Enclave program, which requires strict compliance with national security protocols.

Intel shares are down nearly 4% in premarket trading in New York. 

Here's the full letter from the GOP Senator:

Mr. Frank D. Yeary

Chairman of the Board of Directors

Intel Corporation

2200 Mission College Blvd

Santa Clara, CA 95054

Dear Mr. Yeary:

I write to express concern about the security and integrity of Intel's operations and its potential impact on U.S. national security. In March 2025, Intel appointed Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO. Mr. Tan reportedly controls dozens of Chinese companies and has a stake in hundreds of Chinese advanced-manufacturing and chip firms. At least eight of these companies reportedly have ties to the Chinese People's Liberation Army. 

Mr. Tan was most recently the CEO of Cadence Design Systems, a company that makes electronic design automation (EDA) technology, which is a key enabler of advanced chip design. Last week, Cadence pleaded guilty to illegally selling its products to a Chinese military university and transferring its technology to an associated Chinese semiconductor company without obtaining licenses. These illegal activities occurred under Mr. Tan's tenure. 

Intel was awarded nearly $8 billion from the CHIPS and Science Act, the largest grant to a single company. Intel is required to be a responsible steward of American taxpayer dollars and to comply with applicable security regulations. Mr. Tan's associations raise questions about Intel's ability to fulfill these obligations. In the interest of transparency and national security, I respectfully request a response to the following questions by August 15, 2025.

  1. Was the Board aware of Cadence's subpoenas before hiring Mr. Tan as CEO? If so, what measures were taken to address concerns about Cadence's activities under Mr. Tan?
  2. Did the Board require Mr. Tan to divest from his positions in semiconductor firms linked to the Chinese Communist Party or the People's Liberation Army and any other concerning entities in China that could pose a conflict of interest for Intel's CEO?
  3. Given Intel's contract under the Secure Enclave program, has Mr. Tan disclosed any remaining investments, professional roles, or other ties to Chinese companies to the U.S. government?

Thank you for your attention to this matter. I look forward to your response. 

Sincerely,

Tom Cotton

United States Senator

It seems like the 'Red Scare' has begun. 

And this...

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:00

Bank of England Cuts Rates To 4% After Historic Re-Vote

Zero Hedge -

Bank of England Cuts Rates To 4% After Historic Re-Vote

The Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter of a point to 4% in a hawkish decision that for the first time required a second round of voting, as the central bank contends with weak growth and high inflation, i.e. stagflation.

In an unprecedented second vote by the Monetary Policy Committee after it initially failed to reach a majority verdict, five
members voted for the quarter-point reduction to 4%, while four backed no change. 

That followed an earlier three-way split that failed to reach a majority when four voted for a 25bps cut (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden) and four voted for no change (Megan Greene, Clare Lombardelli, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill). Alan Taylor, an external member who had initially favored a bigger reduction, switched to back a quarter-point in the second round of voting. 

It was the first time in the 28-year history of the panel that two rounds of voting were needed to reach a presentable outcome on rates.

Before the decision, economists had predicted less support for no change.

“We’ve cut interest rates today, but it was a finely balanced decision,” said Andrew Bailey, the BoE’s governor.

He repeated the central bank’s previous guidance that while rates were still on a downward path, “any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully”.

In terms of the forward guidance, the Committee stuck to its previous message of “gradual and careful” easing but added a new sentence saying that “[t]he timing and pace of future reductions in the restrictiveness of policy will depend on the extent to which underlying disinflationary pressures continue to ease”, further emphasising a meeting-by-meeting approach. Second hawkish element of the minutes was the MPC’s comment saying “[o]verall, the MPC judges that the upside risks around medium-term inflationary pressures have moved slightly higher since May.”

The fragmented vote illustrates the extent of disagreement at the UK central bank about how to respond to signs of fraying economic growth juxtaposed against an unsettling resurgence in inflation. 

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve has so far shirked from rate cuts this year to gauge prospective price pressures, incurring derision from President Donald Trump. 

The decision to lower borrowing costs by a quarter point matched market expectations, but the close nature of the vote sent the pound and gilt yields higher. 

The pound jumped against the dollar after the decision, climbing 0.5% to $1.3428. Gilts fell, sending the two-year yield six basis points higher to 3.88% as money markets reduced wagers on the extent of interest rate cuts from the BOE next year.

Two-year gilt yields, which are sensitive to rate changes, rose 0.05 percentage points to 3.87 per cent, as traders braced for a slower pace of future cuts.

Thursday’s decision comes amid a stagflationary conflagration, one where UK inflation is running at much higher levels than in the US or the Eurozone, while growth is slowing. 

The BoE is also wrestling with US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs, which came into effect on dozens of trading partners on Thursday morning. However, the UK has been spared the harshest levies, securing a rate of 10 per cent.

On Thursday, the BoE warned that higher food prices will drive inflation further above target in the near term, predicting a peak at 4 per cent in September, above than previous estimates.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 07:47

The Bubble Is Bursting: Delinquency Rates Have Doubled And Credit Card Defaults Are Soaring

Zero Hedge -

The Bubble Is Bursting: Delinquency Rates Have Doubled And Credit Card Defaults Are Soaring

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Did you know that U.S. households are carrying $1.18 trillion in credit card debt? Considering the fact that the average rate of interest on credit card balances is now over 20 percent, that is not good news at all. Sadly, most of the country is just barely scraping by from month to month in this very harsh economic environment, and turning to credit cards for some relief can be extremely tempting. A thousand dollar credit card balance can turn into four or five thousand dollars in the blink of an eye, and once you get that deep into the hole it can be very difficult to ever dig yourself out. Of course if you end up losing your job or having a major medical emergency, that can be enough to push you completely over the edge financially. Today, that is happening to an alarming number of Americans.

For some perspective, let’s go back to the end of 2024.  At that time, it was being reported that “credit card loan defaults soared this year”…

Experts are sounding the alarm over a new report indicating credit card loan defaults soared this year, warning the dam is about to break on Americans’ record-high consumer debt.

During the first nine months of 2024, lenders wrote off more than $46 billion in seriously delinquent credit card loans, according to a report from the Financial Times citing data analyzed by BankRegData. That’s an increase of 50% from the first three quarters of 2023, and the highest since 2010.

Unfortunately, this crisis has continued to intensify in recent months.

Delinquency rates have “hit the highest levels in more than a decade”, and this is especially true for younger borrowers…

Delinquency rates have doubled since the record lows of 2021. On one hand, this makes sense: Consumer credit has grown 20% since 2021. Stimulus-fueled excess savings drove down credit card balances during the pandemic, then, as the economy opened up, consumers depleted those savings. This has also reignited delinquencies.

But delinquency rates haven’t just rebounded — they’ve hit the highest levels in more than a decade. Even more concerning, the rate of credit card borrowers who transitioned to serious delinquency (90-plus days) is now at 2008 levels. Borrowers age 18-29 make up the biggest portion of this group.

This is starting to become a big problem for our banks.

In particular, small banks have been getting absolutely hammered by very high delinquency rates.

Let’s hope that we can get this turned around.

Our seemingly endless cost of living crisis is putting a tremendous amount of strain on our society, and even delinquency rates for high income households have been soaring

Upper-income Americans are increasingly falling behind on credit card and auto loan payments, signaling an underlying vulnerability in the US economy as the labor market slows.

Delinquencies on such debts from those making at least $150,000 annually have jumped almost 20% over the last two years, faster than for middle- and lower-income borrowers, according to the credit-scoring firm VantageScore. A recent Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis study found the share of people making late card payments in the highest-income zip codes has risen twice as much over the last year as in the lowest-income ones.

Are the facts that I just shared with you a sign that the economy is healthy or that the economy is unhealthy?

Needless to say, the answer is self-evident.

Despite what the talking heads on CNBC are telling you, the truth is that most of the nation is really struggling right now.

But no matter how much you are struggling, you should avoid going into credit card debt, because credit card debt is financial poison.

Unfortunately, today the average U.S. household is carrying more than $6,000 in credit card debt…

  • The average U.S. household has $6,120 in credit card debt.

  • Total U.S. household credit card debt is currently at $1.18 trillion, making up 6% of all household debt.

  • Washington, D.C., carries the highest level of credit card debt per capita at $5,360 on average, while Mississippi carries the lowest at $2,940 on average.

  • Americans aged 65 to 74 have more credit card debt than any other age range, coming in at an average of $7,720 in debt.

Can you guess what the average rate of interest on all of that credit card debt is?

I just asked Google AI, and I was told that the “average APR for all credit card accounts in Q2 2025 was 21.16%”.

Wow.

If you are paying more than 20 percent interest on a credit card balance, you are getting absolutely killed financially.

And “buy now, pay later” plans can be even worse.

At this point, those plans have become so lucrative that even Costco is getting in on the game…

Costco is now offering a buy-now, pay-later option for online shoppers through a new multi-year partnership with Affirm.

The installment plans will allow customers to select the payment option at checkout for purchases ranging from $500 to $17,500.

Customers will be checked for eligibility in real time and can choose a monthly payment plan that fits their budget.

I know that it can be so tempting to reach for a short-term solution.

But don’t do it.

You will always regret it later.

But I certainly understand why so many Americans are looking for an easy way out.

I shared this yesterday, but I felt that I should share it again today.  A recent survey discovered that 83 percent of U.S. adults are experiencing “stressflation”

A LifeStance Health survey released today reveals “stressflation” is affecting most Americans, with 83% reporting financial stress driven by inflation, mass layoffs, the rising cost of living and recession fears. Millennials and Gen Z report the most significant mental health impacts.

If you are stressed about your finances, you have lots of company.

Economic conditions are very painful, and more Americans are falling out of the middle class with each passing day.

Unfortunately, even more trouble is potentially on the horizon.

The U.S. and China still have not been able to reach a permanent trade agreement, and if that does not happen by the deadline both nations “are set to once again place historic tariffs on each other’s imports starting August 12″…

Chinese and American trade negotiators concluded their two-day meeting in Stockholm without a resolution to avert tariffs from skyrocketing back to ultra-high levels that formed an effective blockade on trade between the world’s two largest economies. But President Donald Trump’s trade advisers and their Chinese counterparts sounded a hopeful note.

Without an agreement, the United States and China are set to once again place historic tariffs on each other’s imports starting August 12.

We have about two weeks.

Hopefully negotiators will be able to work something out.

But even if an agreement is reached, so many other long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction very rapidly.

Now is a time to get “lean and mean” financially, because I have a feeling that the economic news is going to get very “interesting” during the second half of this year.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 07:20

RFK Jr.'s Food Revolution Begins Next Month 

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr.'s Food Revolution Begins Next Month 

On Monday, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins joined Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., FDA Administrator Martin Makary, and Gov. Patrick Morrisey (R-WV) to celebrate "MAHA Monday" with the announcement that six more states have agreed to remove junk food from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). It's about damn time. America suffers from an obesity crisis, one that is not only straining the healthcare system and bankrupting families, but also posing a national security risk. 

Speaking at a press conference at the White House, Secretary Kennedy said, "Taxpayer dollars shouldn't go to junk food that makes our kids sick. We're fixing that—state by state, step by step—to Make America Healthy Again."

USDA Secretary Rollins announced that six more states, including Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Colorado, Oklahoma, and West Virginia, have signed waivers to exclude junk food from SNAP.  Five states had previously been granted such waivers – Utah, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, and Nebraska. And the list continues to grow. 

FDA Commissioner Makary noted, "I hope to see all 50 states join this bold commonsense approach. For too long, the root causes of our chronic disease epidemic has been addressed with lip service only. It's time for powerful changes to our nation's SNAP program. The goal is simple—reduce mass suffering from diabetes, obesity, and other long term medical conditions. I applaud the leadership of Secretaries Rollins and Kennedy, and President Trump in going bold."

We have previewed numerous times about the sweeping changes coming to the nation's food supply chain that will be unleashed during the MAHA era:

Secretary Kennedy provided further color on the incoming changes.

Here are the highlights:

  • RFK Jr. says Brooke Rollins is the first USDA secretary in history to prioritize food quality—and it's transforming SNAP.

  • "Secretary Rollins is the best USDA Secretary in history."

  • "This is the first USDA Secretary who has focused on food quality."

  • "About 10% of SNAP spending is going to sugary drinks… add candies to that, it's about 13%-17%."

  • "The U.S. taxpayers should not be paying to feed the poorest kids… foods that are gonna give them diabetes."

  • RFK Jr. says new dietary guidelines are coming next month—shorter, clearer, and three months ahead of schedule.

  • "The dietary orders are coming out… three months ahead of schedule."

  • "The dietary guidelines that we inherited… were 453 pages long."

  • "We are going to release dietary guidelines that are 4-6 pages long… and understandable/simple."

  • "They will drive changes in the school lunch program and prison lunches and military food."

Separately, Secretary Kennedy has pledged "a massive testing and research effort" to determine the cause of autism by next month: "By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic and we'll be able to eliminate those exposures." 

A nation is only as strong as its people. With obesity rates alarmingly high, junk food flooding welfare programs, and military preparedness eroding, the Trump administration is taking corrective action to ensure that national strength and resilience rebound dramatically by the 2030s. 

See:

MAHA. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 06:55

Germany's Debt Minister Meets Wall Street’s Hawk: Ideologies Collide in DC

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Debt Minister Meets Wall Street’s Hawk: Ideologies Collide in DC

By Thomas Kolbe

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil wrapped up his visit to Washington last week. His meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent centered on the EU–US trade deal. A dose of European moralism, of course, wasn’t missing.

It was a meeting of political opposites. On one side: Scott Bessent, Wall Street veteran and committed to cutting America’s debt through radical fiscal consolidation, deregulation, tax cuts, and shrinking the role of the state. On the other: Lars Klingbeil, steward of the largest debt program in German history, embracing state intervention as economic salvation.

More than just a polite first encounter, this was a friendly but stark ideological clash.

No Trade Leverage

As expected, the follow-up to the EU–US trade deal was on the agenda. Klingbeil admitted that the deal had exposed Europe’s weaknesses. He called for a “stronger Europe,” suggesting unity was needed to face Washington “with confidence”—though always “in dialogue, not opposition.” His rhetoric wavered between confrontation and appeasement, declaring that Europe’s hand remained extended (how generous).

It was the usual watered-down European message: acknowledge U.S. dominance, then pretend there’s still parity.

On Russia, both sides agreed: Europe will move forward with its 18th sanctions package, while Trump threatened a 100% tariff if no ceasefire in Ukraine is reached soon.

China wasn’t officially on the table, but consensus is growing between Brussels and Washington: both want to curb the flood of Chinese exports. The U.S. has already launched aggressive tariffs. Europe's position? Still unclear. Klingbeil likely knows Europe has little leverage in Beijing—just as it had none in Washington.

Brussels is now scrambling to implement an import surge monitoring system. But the EU's last attempt to confront Beijing diplomatically failed—just like its trade talks with the U.S. Ursula von der Leyen’s delegation left China empty-handed.

Steel, Tariffs, and an American Wall

Klingbeil lobbied for German steel—pushing for export quota relief to cushion new tariffs. But the structure’s already in place: the U.S. 15% tariff wall stands, and only minor tweaks will be up for discussion in coming weeks.

Europe has quietly accepted Washington’s terms. Resistance from Brussels? Minimal.

Watch India closely: it complied with U.S. tariffs but defied Trump’s demand to stop buying Russian oil. Countries like India and Brazil are recalibrating—turning toward BRICS and away from the U.S.-centric system. Trump’s tariff regime is accelerating the tectonic realignment of global trade.

Free Trade? Keep Dreaming

At the press conference, Klingbeil emphasized free trade and his intent to work with Japan, Canada, and the UK in upcoming rounds. But after the EU’s protectionist record—and the Mercosur delay tactics—this promise sounds like fiction.

Global trade had already moved past free-market ideals before Trump’s tariffs. The EU exemplifies neo-mercantilism. Bilateral deals now define global trade, replacing post-WWII multilateralism.

Klingbeil’s visit? A polite handshake, little more. Europe’s trade position is stuck. Brussels shows no intention of dismantling the real barriers: climate regulation and harmonization rules that choke access to its internal market.

Moralism on Arrival

Klingbeil wouldn’t be a proper German minister without a final dose of European moralism. He criticized Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggesting Europe values the independence of institutions.

Cue the laughter.

Lecturing America—right as it disentangles media from state control, dismantles the climate agenda, and restores institutional independence—is farcical. Especially coming from an EU representative whose bloc is busy rolling out the Digital Services Act, chat control, a central bank digital currency, and creeping judicial politicization.

If Europe’s last rhetorical bullet is hollow moralism, it's already lost the battle.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 03:30

Germany's Debt Minister Meets Wall Street’s Hawk: Ideologies Collide in DC

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Debt Minister Meets Wall Street’s Hawk: Ideologies Collide in DC

By Thomas Kolbe

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil wrapped up his visit to Washington last week. His meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent centered on the EU–US trade deal. A dose of European moralism, of course, wasn’t missing.

It was a meeting of political opposites. On one side: Scott Bessent, Wall Street veteran and committed to cutting America’s debt through radical fiscal consolidation, deregulation, tax cuts, and shrinking the role of the state. On the other: Lars Klingbeil, steward of the largest debt program in German history, embracing state intervention as economic salvation.

More than just a polite first encounter, this was a friendly but stark ideological clash.

No Trade Leverage

As expected, the follow-up to the EU–US trade deal was on the agenda. Klingbeil admitted that the deal had exposed Europe’s weaknesses. He called for a “stronger Europe,” suggesting unity was needed to face Washington “with confidence”—though always “in dialogue, not opposition.” His rhetoric wavered between confrontation and appeasement, declaring that Europe’s hand remained extended (how generous).

It was the usual watered-down European message: acknowledge U.S. dominance, then pretend there’s still parity.

On Russia, both sides agreed: Europe will move forward with its 18th sanctions package, while Trump threatened a 100% tariff if no ceasefire in Ukraine is reached soon.

China wasn’t officially on the table, but consensus is growing between Brussels and Washington: both want to curb the flood of Chinese exports. The U.S. has already launched aggressive tariffs. Europe's position? Still unclear. Klingbeil likely knows Europe has little leverage in Beijing—just as it had none in Washington.

Brussels is now scrambling to implement an import surge monitoring system. But the EU's last attempt to confront Beijing diplomatically failed—just like its trade talks with the U.S. Ursula von der Leyen’s delegation left China empty-handed.

Steel, Tariffs, and an American Wall

Klingbeil lobbied for German steel—pushing for export quota relief to cushion new tariffs. But the structure’s already in place: the U.S. 15% tariff wall stands, and only minor tweaks will be up for discussion in coming weeks.

Europe has quietly accepted Washington’s terms. Resistance from Brussels? Minimal.

Watch India closely: it complied with U.S. tariffs but defied Trump’s demand to stop buying Russian oil. Countries like India and Brazil are recalibrating—turning toward BRICS and away from the U.S.-centric system. Trump’s tariff regime is accelerating the tectonic realignment of global trade.

Free Trade? Keep Dreaming

At the press conference, Klingbeil emphasized free trade and his intent to work with Japan, Canada, and the UK in upcoming rounds. But after the EU’s protectionist record—and the Mercosur delay tactics—this promise sounds like fiction.

Global trade had already moved past free-market ideals before Trump’s tariffs. The EU exemplifies neo-mercantilism. Bilateral deals now define global trade, replacing post-WWII multilateralism.

Klingbeil’s visit? A polite handshake, little more. Europe’s trade position is stuck. Brussels shows no intention of dismantling the real barriers: climate regulation and harmonization rules that choke access to its internal market.

Moralism on Arrival

Klingbeil wouldn’t be a proper German minister without a final dose of European moralism. He criticized Trump’s firing of Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggesting Europe values the independence of institutions.

Cue the laughter.

Lecturing America—right as it disentangles media from state control, dismantles the climate agenda, and restores institutional independence—is farcical. Especially coming from an EU representative whose bloc is busy rolling out the Digital Services Act, chat control, a central bank digital currency, and creeping judicial politicization.

If Europe’s last rhetorical bullet is hollow moralism, it's already lost the battle.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/07/2025 - 03:30

The Modern Slave

Zero Hedge -

The Modern Slave

Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute,

“The best way to keep a prisoner from escaping is to make sure he never knows he’s in prison.”

 - Fyodor Dostoyevsky

Most people hear ‘modern slavery’ and picture trafficking victims or sweatshop workers—suffering that’s clearly visible, obviously wrong, and comfortably distant from their daily lives. What if the most effective slavery in history isn’t hidden—but public, celebrated, and defended by the very people it enslaves?

I understand that comparing contemporary life to slavery will make some readers uncomfortable. That discomfort is the point. We’ve been conditioned to reserve the word ‘slavery’ for its most extreme historical forms, but slavery is fundamentally about the extraction of labor through coercion—regardless of whether that coercion is applied with whips or withholding.

To be clear: I’m not minimizing the horrific brutality of historical slavery or the ongoing horrors of contemporary trafficking. Chattel slavery involved unimaginable physical cruelty, family separation, and dehumanization that scarred generations. The whip, the auction block, the chain—these were instruments of terror that reduced human beings to property through violence and degradation.

I recognize that freedom and slavery exist on a spectrum. Between the plantation owner’s whip and complete autonomy lies a range of arrangements—serfdom, indentured servitude, debt bondage, and various forms of regulated participation in society. Most people would place our current system somewhere in the middle of this spectrum, arguing we have enough choices and protections to avoid the ‘slavery’ label.

But consider where we actually fall: When you cannot keep the majority of your labor, cannot opt out without facing state violence, cannot choose how your extracted labor is used, and face increasing surveillance and restriction of movement—how far from the slavery end of the spectrum are we really? The question isn’t whether we’re chattel slaves, but whether we’re close enough to that end to warrant the comparison.

I use ‘slavery’ not to minimize historical suffering, but to cut through the comfortable language that obscures the actual relationship. Terms like ‘social contract’ and ‘civic duty’ prevent us from examining what’s really happening. Sometimes the most uncomfortable comparisons reveal the most important truths.

This isn’t about personal hardship or material deprivation. Many people living under this system—myself included—enjoy comforts that would have amazed historical royalty. The sophistication of modern control lies precisely in maintaining compliance through comfort rather than suffering. A golden cage is still a cage, and a comfortable slave is still a slave.

What if the most effective slavery in history makes its subjects grateful for their subjugation?

The Invisible Shackles

The genius of contemporary slavery isn’t the whip, it’s the W-2. It’s not the chain, it’s the mortgage payment. It’s not the overseer with a gun, it’s the IRS agent with a lien.

Think I’m being dramatic? Let’s examine the mechanics.

You surrender 30-50% of your labor before you ever see it. If you refuse, men with guns will eventually arrive at your door. The extraction is comprehensive and inescapable: earn money, pay income tax; own property, pay property tax; spend money, pay sales tax; save money, lose to inflation tax; invest successfully, pay capital gains tax; start a business, pay for licenses; run a profitable business, pay corporate tax; give money away, pay gift tax; die with assets, pay inheritance tax. Every economic action becomes a revenue opportunity for the system that owns your labor.

You can’t opt out of funding wars you oppose, surveillance systems that monitor you, or bureaucracies that regulate your choices. Your ‘property’ can be seized for unpaid taxes, even if you own it outright.

Historical slaves at least knew they were enslaved. The violence was visible, the coercion obvious, the enemy identifiable. Today’s slaves are convinced they’re consumers.

But here’s the real masterpiece: you’ve been convinced this is freedom.

The Comfortable Cage 

The cage isn’t just bigger now—it’s learning. As I documented in “The Invisible Leash,” we’re witnessing the elimination of cognitive friction itself. When AI systems can predict your needs before you feel them and shape your choices before you make them, you’re not using technology—you’re being optimized by it.

But the technological cage is only half the story. We’re witnessing the colonization of human biology itself.

The modern slave doesn’t just surrender their labor—they surrender their cells. Your nervous system is being mapped for networking. Your DNA is being collected, stored, and potentially auctioned in bankruptcy proceedings.

When 23andMe filed for bankruptcy, it left 15 million DNA samples vulnerable to creditors, while officials like Netanyahu openly announced genetic database plans and Congressman Crow warned about DNA-targeted bioweapons.

When RFK, Jr. announced universal wearables within four years, the infrastructure required—regardless of stated health goals—represents the final component of comprehensive biological surveillance that creates permanent legal records for insurance companies, employers, and courts to weaponize against you.

This represents the perfect synthesis of my previous investigations: “The Corporate Veil’s” legal transformation that created the framework for treating citizens as corporate assets, the technological apparatus that perfected the delivery mechanisms, and the biological colonization that provided the final substrate for control.

But here’s what makes this convergence truly unprecedented: we’re witnessing the emergence of anticipatory compliance. Your smartwatch doesn’t just track your health—studies show wearables can detect conditions like Covid-19 up to 7 days before symptoms appear, while insurance companies like John Hancock offer up to 25% premium discounts based on your activity data. Your phone doesn’t just suggest routes—it knows your behavioral patterns well enough that employers are using fitness trackers to monitor employee performance and “reliability” based on movement data. Your streaming habits don’t just reflect your preferences—they shape your psychological profile in ways that determine your access to credit, housing, and employment.

The modern slave isn’t just compliant—they’re predicted, pre-approved, and programmed for the life the system has chosen.

The Evolution of Bondage

Alongside this invisible system, the old brutalities persist today. Children mine cobalt in the Congo under armed guard to power our smartphones. Human trafficking generates $150 billion annually through forced labor and sexual exploitation. Millions remain trapped in debt bondage, forced marriage, and industrial slavery that looks remarkably similar to bondage from centuries past.

What makes the form of slavery I’m describing historically unique isn’t its cruelty but its invisibility. Traditional slavery—both historical and contemporary—relies on obvious coercion: if you’re owned, you know it. The master’s authority is visible, violent, and direct. Resistance means physical punishment, but at least the enemy is identifiable.

The slavery of the developed world operates through what we might call the ‘white glove model’—polished, comfortable, and marketed as benefit rather than bondage. Traditional slaves are told they’re property; modern slaves are told they’re customers. Traditional slaves are controlled through fear; modern slaves through convenience. Traditional slaves are kept ignorant; modern slaves are overwhelmed with curated information that shapes their conclusions.

The plantation owner never convinced his slaves that chains were jewelry. The Congolese warlord doesn’t pretend the cobalt mine is a wellness center. But we’ve been convinced that surveillance is safety, that debt is prosperity, that algorithmic control is empowerment.

Traditional slavery was economically inefficient—you had to house, feed, and guard your property. Modern slavery is self-maintaining: the slaves pay for their own monitoring devices, compete for their positions, and attack anyone who suggests they’re not free.

You celebrate when your smartwatch reminds you to exercise. You feel grateful when your phone suggests the fastest route. You trust algorithms to curate your news, your entertainment, your potential romantic partners.

We’ve been conditioned to love our cages so thoroughly that questioning them feels like madness.

The Financial DNA of Control

The economic architecture of modern slavery operates through the systematic conversion of citizens into corporate assets. The legal frameworks established after 1871 created the foundation for treating people as revenue-generating entities rather than sovereigns, as evidenced by how your name appears in ALL CAPS on government documents—the same format used for corporate entities.

This isn’t just bureaucratic formatting—it’s the paper trail of your conversion from citizen to inventory. You’re not exercising rights; you’re generating revenue for systems that process you like any other corporate asset.

The financial enslavement operates through debt that can never be repaid because the ‘money’ used to pay it is itself debt. Federal Reserve notes aren’t currency—they’re IOUs in a system where every dollar represents an obligation to private banks. You’re trying to pay off debt with debt instruments, which is mathematically impossible.

The $37 trillion national debt isn’t just a number—it’s a lien against your future productivity. You didn’t vote for this debt, you can’t discharge it, but you’re legally obligated to service it through your labor

And here’s where the noose tightens: Central Bank Digital Currencies represent programmable money that can expire, restrict purchases, or shut off entirely based on compliance—eliminating the last vestige of anonymous economic activity.

The trajectory toward financial control wasn’t accidental. The Economist’s 1988 cover predicted a ‘world currency’ emerging from the ashes of national currencies by 2018—exactly when cryptocurrency and CBDC development accelerated. By 2021, the same publication celebrated ‘Govcoins’ as inevitable, replacing ‘In God We Trust’ with ‘In Tech We Trust.’ This 33-year progression from prediction to celebration reveals the deliberate timeline for eliminating monetary sovereignty.

Cash, the last vestige of anonymous economic activity, is being systematically eliminated. What they call “financial inclusion” is actually economic imprisonment: making every purchase a permission request to algorithmic authorities.

The Divided Plantation

Perhaps most brilliantly, the system has convinced its slaves to fight each other instead of recognizing their shared bondage.

As I explored in “Divided We Fall,” the same forces profiting from your labor also fund the narratives that keep you arguing with your neighbors. The most effective plantation is one where the slaves police each other.

The protesters who storm the Capitol think they’re fighting tyranny while carrying tracking devices that record their every move. The activists who march for social justice organize through apps that harvest their data while promoting policies that expand surveillance. Both sides livestream their ‘resistance’ on platforms owned by their oppressors.

The genius isn’t in the politics—it’s in ensuring that no matter which side you choose, you’re still feeding the machine that enslaves you.

The Technological Leash Tightens

The convergence is accelerating through coordinated infrastructure:

  • Identity Capture: Biometric databases make anonymous existence impossible

  • Data Processing: Massive server farms process every biometric signature in real-time

  • Interface Elimination: ‘Contextually aware’ devices remove conscious choice friction

  • Cognitive Control: AI systems shape how you think about questions themselves

  • Economic Dependency: Digital income tied to compliance monitoring

  • Biological Integration: Neural interfaces turn your cells into network nodes

The technology goes beyond wearables to injectable nanosensors that can cross the blood-brain barrier and wirelessly transmit neural activity to external devices, allowing for direct monitoring of thoughts and brain activity. University of California researchers have developed NeuroSWARM3, gold-plated nanosensors “the size of a single viral particle” that can travel through the bloodstream, cross the blood-brain barrier, and “convert the signals that accompany thoughts to remotely measurable signals.”

The convergence I’ve documented across multiple essays reveals something unprecedented: a system where your legal status, technological dependencies, and biological processes have been integrated into a single control architecture. The modern slave isn’t just monitored—they’re systemically integrated at every level of existence.

The War on Consciousness: Documented in Patents

This isn’t cultural drift. It’s not accidental. It’s not even just market forces.

This is weaponized psychology, and the patents are the smoking gun.

The US Patent Office contains thousands of entries detailing the technical manipulation of human consciousness—filed by corporations, defense contractors, and intelligence affiliates. These aren’t conspiracy theories. They’re government-validated blueprints. Critics often dismiss patents as mere speculation—”just because it’s patented doesn’t mean it’s built.” But these aren’t isolated theoretical documents. They represent a documented progression from classified research to consumer products, a technological pipeline from government laboratories to your living room.

US Patent 6,506,148 B2: Nervous System Manipulation by Electromagnetic Fields from Monitors. Your screen isn’t just displaying images—it’s capable of modulating your nervous system.

Image Source: MKULTRA: The Hidden Hand, Part 3

US Patent 5,159,703: Silent Subliminal Presentation System. Sends inaudible signals straight to your subconscious—bypassing conscious resistance.

Image Source: MKULTRA: The Hidden Hand, Part 3

US Patent 3,951,134: Remote Monitoring and Alteration of Brain Waves. You don’t even need to wear the device. The environment itself becomes the weapon.

Image Source: MKULTRA: The Hidden Hand, Part 3

Even Apple has filed patents to monitor brain waves via AirPods—framed as health optimization, but in reality, they represent applied surveillance of thought.

What MKULTRA did with electrodes and LSD, modern technocrats do with earbuds and screen time. The modern slave doesn’t just carry tracking devices—they carry consciousness-control tools disguised as entertainment, wellness, and productivity.

This is a war on awareness itself—the systematic erasure of human autonomy in favor of algorithmic obedience. The only thing more chilling than these patents existing is the fact that we’re voluntarily paying for them.

The Soft Enforcement Layer

But how does the Control Grid maintain compliance without obvious violence? Through the emerging infrastructure of soft coercion—systems that make resistance economically and socially impossible.

The enforcement doesn’t come through jackbooted thugs but through bureaucratic strangulation. History shows us this pattern: the worst totalitarian states didn’t just imprison dissidents—they made exit itself impossible. As Balaji Srinivasan recently observed on X, “The right to exit is a fundamental human right. It’s equivalent to individual consent, and to communal self-determination. Even the UN recognizes this. The worst states in history revoked the human right to exit. The Soviets, the Nazis, the East Germans, the Cubans, the North Koreans…they did not let you leave.”

He provided historical documentation showing how:

The Nazis implemented the Reich Flight Tax in 1931 to rob emigrating Jews of their assets.

East Germany criminalized leaving as “desertion from the republic.”

The Soviets imposed “diploma taxes” on educated emigrants.

Cuba made escape so difficult that people still risk death on makeshift rafts.

The pattern is always the same: economic barriers replace physical walls, targeting those most likely to resist—the educated, the wealthy, the independent-minded.

Today’s version is more sophisticated but functionally identical: rather than preventing physical departure, modern systems make economic and social participation impossible without compliance—creating internal exile within your own country.

  • AI workplace monitoring: Companies using behavioral analytics to assess employee “reliability” and performance through comprehensive surveillance of file activity, communication, and screen behavior

  • Biometric payment systems: Facial recognition replacing cash transactions at stadiums and retail locations, with venues like the Cleveland Browns and Intuit Dome requiring facial authentication for concessions

  • Social credit integration: Insurance premiums tied to wearable device compliance and lifestyle monitoring, with 69% of Americans willing to wear devices for insurance discounts 

  • Digital ID expansion: Coordinated global rollout of mandatory digital identity systems for basic services, with experts predicting 5 billion digital IDs globally by 2024, including Mexico’s new biometric CURP system requiring facial scans and fingerprints for internet access

  • Carbon passports: UK’s proposed yearly travel allowances restricting movement based on digital compliance, announced just last week

When I detailed this soft enforcement architecture in 2022, friends told me I was being paranoid. These mechanisms have gone from ‘conspiracy theory’ to openly considered—and often implemented—policy in three years.

This isn’t just surveillance—it’s economic exclusion for non-compliance. In the UK alone, police arrest over 12,000 people annually (more than 30 per day) under just two speech-related laws. The system doesn’t need to arrest you; it just needs to make your life impossible without submission. 

Your social credit score doesn’t put you in jail; it just makes you unemployable. Your vaccine passport doesn’t physically restrain you; it just makes you unable to participate in society. Your CBDC wallet doesn’t chain you; it just expires your money if you exhibit unapproved behavior.

The genius is making compliance feel voluntary while making resistance practically impossible.

The Global Architecture

This coordination isn’t accidental. When identical digital ID systems roll out globally using the same frameworks, when QR code rationing appears simultaneously across continents, when biometric requirements emerge in lockstep worldwide—we’re witnessing architecture, not random evolution.

The World Economic Forum openly describes this coordination through their ‘digital identity’ initiatives, ‘Great Reset’ agenda, and ‘stakeholder capitalism’ frameworks that integrate technological, financial, and biological control systems. The rhetoric of ‘building back better’ creates the infrastructure for comprehensive human management. As Laura Edelson, a computer scientist at Northeastern University, noted about China’s digital ID system just last week: ‘They want the policeman to be in your head, and a really important way of making people feel that policeman in their head is removing any illusion that someone might have that they’re anonymous.’

What China implements openly as social control, the West adopts through the language of health, safety, and convenience—but the architecture remains identical. We’re witnessing the Chinafication of the West, where the same surveillance systems get rebranded as freedom.

The Synthesis of Control

What emerges from connecting these patterns is a form of slavery more sophisticated than anything in human history: what I’ve been calling ‘The Control Grid,’ a term I first heard from Catherine Austin Fitts.

The financial layer (documented in “The Corporate Veil“) reduces you to a revenue-generating entity through legal frameworks that treat citizenship as corporate registration.

The cultural layer (explored in “Engineering Reality“) manufactures the conflicts that keep you fighting other slaves instead of recognizing the plantation.

The technological layer (exposed in “The Invisible Leash“) eliminates cognitive friction through AI systems that predict and shape your choices before you make them.

The biological layer (revealed in “Node Without Consent“) colonizes your cellular processes through devices that monitor and potentially control your physical responses.

The result isn’t just surveillance or control—it’s the systematic replacement of human agency with algorithmic optimization. You’re not living your life; you’re performing a script written by systems that know you better than you know yourself.

Historical slavery relied on external coercion—slaves knew they were enslaved even when powerless to resist. Modern slaves have surrendered their decision-making processes to systems that predict their choices, curate their information, and shape their desires. The most profound enslavement isn’t of the body—it’s of the will itself. Once you control consciousness—what people think, how they think, even whether they think—every other form of control becomes automatic. Cognitive sovereignty is the foundation of all other freedoms.

Programming the Next Generation

But the Control Grid’s most insidious achievement is psychological: we’re raising children who will never know what freedom felt like.

We’ve created what can only be called psychological cripples—people who are practiced at reading social cues and adjusting their thoughts accordingly, but who have never learned to form independent judgments. They mistake consensus for truth and popularity for virtue. This systematic conditioning process creates individuals who’ve never developed the capacity for authentic dissent.

But it goes deeper than social conditioning. We’re witnessing the systematic prevention of human consciousness development itself.

Consider what’s being lost: A child who learns to ‘feel’ through mood-tracking apps never develops internal emotional awareness. Kids who navigate exclusively through GPS never develop spatial reasoning or intuitive direction. Those who get dopamine hits from notification sounds never learn sustained attention or deep focus. Children who ask Alexa for answers never develop the cognitive struggle that builds critical thinking.

This isn’t just convenience—it’s cognitive replacement. When your device tells you how you slept, how you feel, what you need, when to eat, where to go, what to think—the faculty for self-awareness atrophies. The child never learns to read their own body’s signals, trust their own judgment, or develop what previous generations simply called ‘common sense.’

Unlike the Stasi’s victims who at least had some years of normal psychological development, these kids never get that foundation. They never develop what psychologists call ‘internal locus of control’ because they never get to make real choices with real consequences—or even learn to perceive reality without technological filters.

The result is a generation that’s either paralyzed by self-consciousness or completely reckless. Some retreat into careful blandness, crafting personas so sanitized they might as well be corporate spokespeople for their own lives. Others embrace weaponized exposure because they figure they’re already screwed.

Most devastatingly, we’re creating humans who literally cannot conceive of unmediated existence. They’ve never experienced unmonitored thought, untracked movement, or unrecorded conversation. To them, privacy isn’t a right being taken away—it’s an alien concept that feels dangerous and unnecessary.

We’re not just surveilling them—we’re programming them. Teaching them that having real convictions is dangerous, that independent thought carries unlimited downside risk, that technological mediation is superior to human judgment, that the most important skill in life is reading algorithmic cues and adjusting accordingly.

This creates the perfect slaves: people who police themselves, who mistake their cage for safety, who’ve forgotten that thoughts are meant to be shared and convictions are meant to be defended—because they never learned these capacities existed in the first place.

The Recognition

The first step toward freedom is recognizing the Control Grid. Not metaphorically—literally.

Examine your legal documents. Notice the capitalization patterns. Study how you’re identified in these systems. Track your labor extraction—calculate how much of your productivity disappears before you see it.

Most importantly, observe your own behavior. How often do you ask your device how you feel instead of feeling it yourself? How many decisions get shaped by algorithmic suggestions? How much of your self-awareness has been outsourced to technological interpretation?

They carry their monitoring device voluntarily, pay for their own surveillance, and defend the system that harvests their data. They vote in elections that don’t change the fundamental architecture of control, celebrate technological ‘conveniences’ that eliminate their agency, and attack anyone who questions the system.

They have more gadgets than any generation in history yet less control over their time, more information yet less understanding of how their world works, more ‘rights’ yet fewer choices about the fundamental terms of their existence.

The Mirror

Look in the mirror. What do you see—a free citizen or a well-managed resource?

You surrender your labor through payroll deduction. You submit to surveillance through consumer electronics. You accept financial dependency through debt-based currency. You participate in division through manufactured political theater. You outsource your biological awareness to technological mediation.

Yet this system is celebrated as freedom.

Modern slaves don’t live in chains—they live in financial obligations. They don’t answer to overseers—they answer to algorithms. They work not to build their own wealth but to service debt they never chose while feeding systems designed to harvest their biological essence.

The Choice

You have three options:

Remain unconscious. Keep believing the system works for you. Trust that your vote matters, your devices serve you, and your sacrifices are for a noble cause. It’s comfortable. It’s easy. It’s probably what most people will choose.

Become conscious but stay compliant. Recognize the system for what it is but continue participating because the alternatives seem too difficult or dangerous. At least you’ll understand why you feel increasingly trapped.

Become conscious and seek freedom. This is the hardest path. It requires questioning everything you’ve been taught about citizenship, money, technology, and authority. It means accepting that the system you’ve defended might be the source of your bondage.

Beyond the Digital Plantation

“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.” 

—Aldous Huxley

The recognition that we’ve been enslaved by systems we defend isn’t cause for despair—it’s the foundation for liberation. The same technologies that enable unprecedented surveillance also enable unprecedented coordination among those who recognize the system’s true nature.

But first, you have to see the Control Grid. You have to acknowledge that the most effective slavery in human history doesn’t require whips or chains—just smartphones, credit scores, and the persistent illusion that monitoring equals caring.

The modern slave looks like someone with a job, a mortgage, a smartwatch, and a Social Security number. They have more conveniences than any generation in history yet less sovereignty over their existence.

The truth might be uncomfortable, but it’s the only foundation upon which genuine freedom can be built.

After all, you can’t escape a prison you don’t know you’re in.

And the first step to freedom is admitting you’re not already free.

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/06/2025 - 22:35

The American Academy Of Pediatrics: Mining Children For Profit

Zero Hedge -

The American Academy Of Pediatrics: Mining Children For Profit

Authored by David Bell via The Brownstone Institute,

American healthcare is currently providing us with an excellent lesson in what capitalism looks like in the absence of a moral framework. The biggest losers are America’s children...

The Union Profiting from Childhood Sickness

The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), the major professional association of North American pediatricians, has overseen the rising rates of chronic illness and medicating of American children over recent decades. With 67,000 members in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, AAP distinguished itself during Covid-19 for its strident insistence that children’s faces should be covered and they should be injected with modified RNA vaccines, despite knowing from early 2020 that severe Covid-19 was very rare in healthy children. 

Funded by sources including Moderna, Merck, Sanofi, GSK, Eli Lilly, and other pharmaceutical companies, the AAP’s members are the cornerstone of the rapidly increasing pediatric pharma market in North America – by far greater than any other region. As a professional organization dedicated to ensuring income for its members, the AAP is like any similar professional association or union and acts in this manner.

The loss of trust in the medical profession since 2020 is fortunately removing the misconception that AAP-like medical societies were primarily altruistic, dedicated to the welfare of others rather than their members. The recent publication of AAP priorities, developed by its membership, should reinforce this loss of trust and so, despite its unusual callousness of approach, serve ultimately to strengthen public health by exposing more clearly the motivations of those profiting from rising illness.

Setting Priorities to Ensure Long-Term Profit

The AAP’s first stated priority is to remove parents from any authority when it comes to decisions on whether to inject their children with various substances produced commercially by its sponsors. While this should be ridiculous, it has some chance of succeeding as the ultimate beneficiaries, apart from pediatricians, are the same pharmaceutical manufacturers who heavily sponsor the election campaigns of most members of the US Congress.

Of relevance, promoting or abetting chronic disease in children ensures almost certain chronic disease through adulthood. The AAP is therefore helping to set up lifelong pharmaceutical consumers. Pharma companies are purely for-profit entities, and this is exactly what their CEOs and executives are charged by their shareholders with promoting. The AAP is simply acting as a very willing enabler.

The AAP considers that bodily autonomy is subservient to State-imposed requirements and that the post-World War II human rights of non-coercion and informed consent are subservient to the opinion of someone receiving money to perform an injection. Its approach coincides with the pre-War technocracy movement or medical fascism (in which a declared ‘expert’ decides on imposing healthcare measures rather than the patient themselves choosing it).

However, before discussing bodily autonomy and coerced medicine further, it is worth commenting on the priority list of the AAP overall, as it is fascinating, coming from a group that insists publicly on prioritizing the health of children.

Firstly, what is not there. Among the ten priorities of the AAP of which the elimination of parental rights or religious or cultural exemptions over vaccination of children is the highest, there is not a single mention of what are perhaps the three most prominent issues facing children today, and widely discussed publicly; increasing obesity and the epidemic of autism that the CDC heralds as of extraordinary proportions. While the AAP notes this problem elsewhere, it concentrates on identification and management rather than cause identification. Nowhere among its ten priorities is there any expression of interest in identifying and addressing the causes of rising chronic illness. The closest is a mention of lower costs for childhood insulin injections. The AAP’s priority list ignores diet and reducing levels of physical activity while actively promoting medicalization, seemingly oblivious to the quite catastrophic reduction in health status of the very populations they claim to be serving.

Unsurprisingly for a purely marketing organization, but inconsistent with a science-based healthcare body, the priorities include nothing regarding very obvious concerns of the impact of over 70 vaccinations, with their associated adjuvants and preservatives, now given to children by ten years of age. This number has grown from just a few 40 years ago in association with the deterioration in child health outcomes. The only interest expressed in vaccines is to remove choice from those concerned about such things, and force compliance. For a society of thinking, truth-seeking people this would be extraordinary.

Parents as an Obstacle to Return on Investment

The justification reported from AAP President Kyle E. Yasuda, M.D., FAAP for removing any remaining personal choice regarding prophylactic medical treatment (vaccination) is “the measles outbreaks” in North America in recent years. Jesse Hackell, MD, chair of the AAP’s Committee on Pediatric Workforce, notes that they were associated with the deaths of two children, the first in “many years.” The AAP simply states, regarding safety, that vaccines are “safe,” a stupid claim in medicine and biology in that adverse events do occur to injected organic substances and metal salts, and they vary from person to person (if rare events occur, then ‘safe’ is a relative term). Associations with recent DTP injection and sudden infant death are, for example, fairly well documented.

Regarding measles, it is likely that many AAP members mean well, but are genuinely misinformed regarding the impact of mass vaccination. In wealthy countries including the United States, nearly all measles mortality ceased before mass vaccination was commenced. This is not controversial – it was once stressed in medical school and is well established in national health statistics. An underlying improvement in nutrition, particularly in micronutrient deficiencies, was a likely reason. Mass vaccination then greatly reduced circulation of the measles virus, but could have only a limited impact on overall mortality. Therefore, weighing costs of vaccination (adverse events) against a very low likelihood of averting early death or disability is a real issue, and to ignore it by just reiterating ‘safe and effective’ is ignorant and foolish.

Measles vaccination is good at stopping transmission because it is very effective at preventing infections from being established. This efficacy is significant to the argument that having many vaccinated is a public good. Nearly all vaccinated people will be protected, and at no risk from the unvaccinated. Thus, mass measles vaccination really only makes sense if it is accepted that people should not have freedom to choose over their own bodies and healthcare, or that of their children. The very low measles mortality, far lower than drowning even before mass vaccination commenced in the United States, effectively removed an argument for overriding parental rights. Unless, of course, we are also going to ban children from swimming or walking near rivers or on a beach.

Lastly, regarding concerns over vaccination, many parents are uncomfortable with the role of cells harvested from induced aborted fetuses, often still alive at the time of harvesting. Again, many AAP members may believe the rhetoric that this is untrue, but nonetheless it is factual. It is how we derive cell cultures to develop many vaccines, so the DNA of these dead unborn humans can still contaminate the injection. The AAP, as an institution, officially holds that cultural and religious concerns arising from this should be overridden.

So, in the end, the AAP’s argument seems to come down to one of two possible drivers. 

Either (1) they have an ideological belief that they should simply be the authority or decision-makers on children’s healthcare rather than parents (a medical-fascist approach),

or (2) they see their role as promoting an extremely lucrative market for their sponsors, from which they also directly benefit, and setting children up for an entire lifetime of chronic illness and pharmaceutical consumption. It is challenging to decide which is less noble.

A third possibility is also possible. Most AAP members are simply going with the flow and have not actually stopped to think through the implications of their union’s policies. However, the motivation for willfully ignoring rational thought probably does come down to a mixture of money and ego, which goes back to the two potential drivers mentioned above.

Medical Fascism Should Have No Future

The AAP will almost certainly continue its path of child polypharmacy, blind adherence to protocols based on the products of their sponsors, and denigration and exclusion of the opinions of parents who recognize the stark reality of deteriorating health in North American children. Parents reading the AAP’s list of priorities would be foolhardy to then entrust their children to such care. Providing that politicians retain integrity and respect freedoms that most assumed were guaranteed in the US Constitution and through basic human rights norms, the AAP will fail in its endeavors and become increasingly irrelevant to public discourse. If they get their way, we will return further toward an approach we thought we had fought wars to overcome.

Fundamental rights of each human to make their own way in life, and protect and oversee their children, underpin any decent societal model.

In fascist societies, such decisions are removed and taken into the hands of experts and authoritarian institutions. The people must simply comply as slaves. Medical professions and their academies have a long history of supporting such approaches, and the AAP seems increasingly determined to replicate that path. It should receive all the respect that such an indecent approach deserves.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/06/2025 - 20:55

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