The War Hawks' Predictions Have Aged Like Milk

Authored by Nolan Denaro via Antiwar.com,

When Donald Trump launched the Iran War on February 28, the usual suspects were in full support. From the moment the conflict ignited, many couldn't help but immediately express admiration for the president, saying that only a brave, noble, and strong leader would've had the courage to do what Trump did here. For weeks, we heard that this war was essential, that we would be better off as a result, and that to be unsupportive was to be siding with the IRGC.

Alex Brandon/AP

As weeks went by, however, it became apparent that the rosy picture that had been painted in the war's infancy was not based in reality. One month turned into two, and then three, and here we are now about six months later, with none of the war's stated objectives having been achieved. Because of the historic nature of this defeat, it is important to reflect on how we got here.

Who were the voices cheering the administration on as it led us down this dark path?

Why did they have such hatred for those of us who opposed the war?

Most importantly, who can't we trust going forward?

Ben Shapiro

Among the war's top early cheerleaders was Ben Shapiro. From the first moments of the conflict, Shapiro was praising Donald Trump's decision to launch the war.

"President Trump is the most courageous commander-in-chief in modern American history," Shapiro excitedly said. "What he just did is the bravest move by a president of the United States of my lifetime, bar none, without a doubt."

Shapiro also immediately made it his mission to smear the war's critics. Doing his best play on David Frum's 2003 article "Unpatriotic Conservatives," Shapiro began labeling some of the most prominent anti-war voices - including libertarian Dave Smith - "America-haters." In a March 4 episode of "The Ben Shapiro Show," Shapiro makes some very bold - and uninformed - predictions for how the war would play out.

Addressing concerns early on in the war about U.S. munition stockpiles, Shapiro urged his audience to ignore the naysayers, and rest assured that " we do have significant stockpiles." To build on his narrative, he claimed that the Iranian's were "running out of missile launchers." "This is a major problem for them," he emphasized.

"The status is pretty good," Shapiro told his podcast listeners, "things are moving pretty well."

Shapiro's blind faith in the government narrative was not enough to will the U.S. to victory, however. His uncritical rereading of Trump's Truth Social post - in which he claims that we have a "virtually unlimited supply" of munitions - may have convinced his audience to get on board with the war, but this trust in the administration eventually crashed against the rocks of reality.

The U.S. does not have "unlimited" munitions. The Iranian's ability to launch missiles has not been effectively degraded. This war has not gone as the administration intended, and the biggest proof of this is the conflict's length. The war was originally sold as a weeks-long offensive, but it turned out to be a drastically larger undertaking than the White House anticipated, and one that has engulfed the Trump presidency.

Marc Thiessen

Neoconservative Marc Thiessen, a former George W. Bush speechwriter, was among the war's most enthusiastic boosters early on. Once a leading figure within the "Never-Trump" movement, Thiessen has become a vocal supporter of the President. This change of heart is mainly due to Trump abandoning his dovish 2016 rhetoric, and embracing a more hawkish foreign policy.

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on March 3, Thiessen outlined what he viewed as the mastery of Trump's Iran strategy.

"At this moment, the U.S. is striking Iran from the air - eliminating the regime's leadership, its retaliatory capabilities, its nuclear program and its infrastructure of repression." Thiessen explained. "Expect this campaign to last for weeks, not days."

Thiessen also expressed faith that the Iranian population could be organized - as one collective unit - and mobilized in an orderly fashion to achieve America's objectives, saying "there is no need for a U.S. invasion force. The Iranian people are the boots on the ground, and the fate of the country is in their hands."

This uprising of course did not happen, and based on the size of the crowd that attended the funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there are signs of a "rally around the flag" effect having taken place in at least some capacity.

In an effort to play to Trump's ego, Thiessen struck a familiar cord, saying "If he succeeds in defeating Islamic radicalism in Iran, Trump will take his place alongside them as one the most consequential presidents in U.S. history."

Surely we should expect a follow-up on these wildly-incorrect predictions, right? This war not only wasn't wrapped up in "weeks" like Thiessen had assured us, but his premature claims of success have also proven false.

To be fair to Thiessen, let's assess the success of this war by his own standards, which he kindly published in his Washington Post op-ed on March 11. His three "levels of success in Iran" are as follows:

"Level One: The United States eliminates the regime's ability to project force beyond its borders."

"Level Two: The Iranian regime collapses and is replaced by a new government answerable to Washington."

"Level Three: The Iranian people rise up and take back their country."

As for the first objective, Iran's ability to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz has showcased an expansion - not a retraction - of Iranian influence in the region. Ships have been struck multiple times in the past month, even as we are told the military fighting is on pause.

The Iranian regime has also not collapsed as Thiessen has hoped, and they are no more answerable to Washington than they were before. In fact, due to the unwillingness of Trump to hold up his end of a potential deal, Iran has become more reluctant to negotiate.

As I previously explained, Thiessen's dreams of a people-powered uprising were not based in reality. If you think about the plan in simple terms, you can quickly see its problems. The idea was that the U.S. was going to bomb Iran, assassinate the country's political and religious leader, kill innocent civilians, threaten to eliminate all of Persian civilization, and then the everyday people would suddenly become motivated to rally to the cause of the foreign nation that is attacking them. This is an illogical proposition, but one that was genuinely believed by neoconservative ideologues like Marc Thiessen.

Jesse Watters

Fox News' primetime hosts were leading the war's propaganda effort, and none were as shameless as Jesse Watters. Watters monologues on his show "Jesse Watters Primetime," as well as his remarks on "The Five" have been shockingly detached from reality, and his statements immediately following Trump's initial strikes have not aged well.

"We're crushing them," Watters told the panel of "The Five" on March 3. "These guys were nuking up, Trump's not going to wait around."

"With Venezuela and Iran, we've basically tipped over two petro-dictatorships," Watters said, just a few days into what has turned into a prolonged conflict. "We now control almost the entire world oil market."

It is genuinely unbelievable how history manages to repeat itself like this. In what is now an infamous moment of presidential embarrassment, George W. Bush spoke on the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003, in front of a banner that read "Mission Accomplished." He gave the speech only a few weeks after the launch of the Iraq War. Despite Bush's proclamation of a completed mission, the war would go on to last for years, resulting in thousands of American troop deaths, hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian deaths, and hundreds of billions of dollars spent. This speech has since served as a reminder of how hubris can blind political leaders from military realities. Much like in 2003, it seems that many were blinded by hubris in Iran. The thought of an American strategic defeat against Iran was unfathomable to the war-hawks. This is because they are in a bubble, where they only hear feedback which reaffirms their pre-existing ideology. If they were to have heeded the warnings of the wise voices who opposed this war (John Mearshiemer, Scott Horton, Jeffrey Sachs, Andrew Napolitano, Ron Paul, Tucker Carlson, etc.), they would've at least understood the incredible risks inherent in this project.

But, of course, their strategy relies on maintaining an unshakable narrative: the war will be a success, without a doubt. The skeptics of foreign interventionism - despite all of the ridiculous smears - have once again been proven right. Perhaps we should listen to them sometime. We would be much better off.

Nolan Denaro is an independent political analyst, writer, and host of "The Quest For Clarity" podcast, which can be found on YouTube and Spotify. His work has been published by Antiwar.com, Responsible Statecraft, the Libertarian Institute, The Daily Caller, and the Ludwig von Mises Institute. He writes on U.S. foreign policy, economics, and current events, with a particular focus on war and imperialism. He writes opinion pieces on his Substack, and you can follow him on X @nolandenaro. Nolan can be reached for correspondence at nolansdenaro@icloud.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 21:45

Study Finds Gender Ideology Fuels Support For Left-Wing Political Violence

The Department of Health and Human Services commissioned a study that found a measurable link between accepting transgender ideology and supporting left-wing political violence.

Surveillance footage provided in court filings shows Nicholas Roske at a gun shop on May 23, 2022 before attempted murder of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. (Photo: Justice Department)

Researchers at Rutgers University, the Manhattan Institute and the Network Contagion Research Institute produced the report, called "Where the Clinic Meets the Movement: Does Gender Ideology Arm Left-Wing Authoritarian Psychology?" which was obtained by the New York Post ahead of its release.

The team surveyed 1,208 American adults on the importance of affirming gender identity, on perceived threats to transgender people from groups the survey lists as "white supremacists, men, the Supreme Court, etc.," and on support for anti-democratic behaviors.

To gauge a respondent's degree of support for gender ideology, researchers built a metric they call the Clinical Gender Affirmation Scale (CGAS), drawn from what they describe as "consensus positions" of the American Psychological Association, the American Psychiatric Association and the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, chosen because they "represent the official scientific and clinical establishment on care for individuals who identify as transgender."

Researchers then asked respondents about six potential targets of political violence. The report describes them as "killing Charlie Kirk, killing Donald Trump, killing Brian Thompson, arson of ICE buildings, damaging wealthy people's property, and violence against police."

Across preregistered analyses, CGAS and related gender ideological-belief measures were strongly associated with left-wing authoritarianism (LWA), with Spearman correlations ranging from ρ = 0.44 to ρ = 0.59. CGAS also significantly predicted LWA, accounting for 31.5% of its variance. In ordinal regressions predicting CGAS, political identity was the strongest predictor, but LWA remained an independent predictor after controlling for political identity and age. LWA and CGAS were also positively associated with justification of political violence across six targets: killing Charlie Kirk, killing Donald Trump, killing Brian Thompson, arson of ICE buildings, damaging wealthy people's property, and violence against police. Both independently predicted all six violence outcomes after controlling for left-wing political identity.

These findings suggest that gender ideology is associated with LWA and willingness to justify political violence. Experimental research is needed to determine causality.

The report's conclusion reaches past correlation. Gender ideology, the authors write, "may function as an ideological accelerant, telling left-wing authoritarian psychology who the enemy is, why the situation is urgent, and - in those already disposed toward force - that violence is legitimate."

Researchers also examined what they term catastrophizing beliefs. The report assessed "the perceived likelihood that a genocide of individuals that identify as transgender is currently under way," alongside what it calls "associate extremist responses," including support for censoring and punishing people who reject transgender ideology or ignore Supreme Court rulings on gender issues. The authors treat the strength of that connection as unsettled. "We have good reasons to expect that LWA and CGAS will predict support for these sorts of anti-democratic beliefs, but those are empirical questions which will be answered in the analysis that are ongoing," they write.

Study researcher Colin Wright called the results among the most striking he has encountered. "One of our study's most interesting and perhaps shocking findings was that accepting gender ideology appeared to augment authoritarian attitudes on support for political violence," Wright told the Post. He offered one possible mechanism. "We believe this may result from gender ideology defining specific oppressed classes and their oppressors, and the promotion of extreme narratives of harm for those who refuse to affirm transgender identities both socially and medically," Wright said. He stopped short of calling that explanation settled. "That is only speculative at this point, but we are addressing this directly in a follow-up report," Wright said.

The rise of violence linked to transgender perpetrators or allies is hard to dismiss. Last year, Tyler Robinson allegedly shot Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk in the neck while he addressed a crowd at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Robinson reportedly had a relationship with a transgender roommate. In 2022, Nicholas Roske, who identifies as a transgender woman, approached Justice Brett Kavanaugh's home armed, with the attempt to assassinate him. 

Individuals who identified as transgender carried out separate school shootings in Minnesota and Tennessee in the years since. None of this proves causation, and the study's authors concede as much themselves, and a follow-up study is in the works.

"A second study is being designed to address some of the limitations of the study described herein," the authors explain in the conclusion. "This second study will take the causal direction issue head on by using an experimental design to test whether exposure to CGAS-consistent content produces the patterns predicted by the present theory. The cross-sectional correlations reported here constitute the discovery sample; the planned pre-registered experiment will constitute the confirmatory causal test."

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 21:20

A Trillion Dollar Budget But Military Can't 'Afford' To Attack Mold On Bases?

Authored by Stavroula Pabst via Responsible Statecraft,

A new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report finds that the maintenance backlog for military installations has ballooned to more than $285 billion - leaving many facilities in disrepair, while risking readiness and service members' quality of life.

This figure is a jump up from 2022, when the maintenance backlog was about $137 billion. But the backlog continues to grow, because the services only request about 80% of the funds they need for installation repairs and maintenance.

"By requesting less funding for installation maintenance and improvement projects than its models and experts recommend, DOD has chosen to accept some degree of risk that mission or quality of life will be negatively affected," the report, released Friday, found.

Indeed, service members face a range of issues at the facilities where they work and live. Barracks at Naval Station Norfolk, for example, have had suspected mold since 2023. But the installation office declined requests to test the growth observed there "due to the cost of testing and potential remediation."

Another highly used facility at that Naval station had evidence of asbestos and significant water damage, GAO found. While all the station's piers require renovation, the Navy was "actively improving" only one - leaving the rest to operate in a "degraded condition."

At one Naval Base Guam facility, GAO observed, rust build-up and algae on an emergency door's lock could "affect the door's functionality during an emergency." The base's facilities have also been prone to HVAC failures and roof leaks, GAO found, leading to suspected mold.

Beyond physical hazards and operational risks, other issues undercut service members' overall quality of life.

About 3,000 soldiers live at Fort Wainwright, for example, yet the army installation's dining facility was only built to serve 800.

"The dining facility is not able to serve soldiers in a timely manner, so many opt to eat less-healthy food in their living spaces at their own expense, especially in the winter when it is too cold to wait in line outside," GAO found. Officials have repeatedly advocated for expanding the dining facility, but the installation has not yet received the funding needed to do so.

The maintenance backlog continues to swell despite the Pentagon's rapidly expanding budget. The White House requested a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY 2027.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/28/2026 - 20:55

Today July 19 2013 Here is the news conference by Governor Rick Snyder and emergency manager Kevyn Orr explaining why they claimed bankruptcy.

http://www.whec.com/news/stories/S310...
Rochester, N.Y. -- She says she had no warning that someone was going to search her car after she left to catch her flight. So the woman contacted News10NBC.

We found out it happened to her because she valet parked her car. Those are the only cars that get inspected.

So if security feels it is necessary to search some cars in the name of safety, why not search all of them?

Laurie Iacuzza walked to her waiting car at the Greater Rochester International Airport after returning from a trip and that's when she found it -- a notice saying her car was inspected after she left for her flight. She said, “I was furious. They never mentioned it to me when I booked the valet or when I picked up the car or when I dropped it off.”

Henry Kissinger actually publicly stated that those who oppose the New World Order are "terrorists".

Henry Kissinger in a speech given in Istanbul, Turkey on May 31, 2007, while the Bilderberg conference was simultaneously underway, just a few miles down the road.

"In the Middle East, we live in a different world. The nations do not represent historic entities in the same sense that European nations did. Turkey of course does, and Iran in a considerable extent does. But in the region in between, the borders were drawn by the victors of World War I on the basis largely of what would facilitate their influence. So therefore, the identities of these countries, and of their borders, can be challenged more easily."

"What we in America call terrorists are really groups of people that reject the international system, and they're trying to regroup it to a radical Islamic fundamentalists kind."

Detroit has become the largest city in Unites States history to file for bankruptcy after decades of decline and mismanagement rendered the city insolvent. Michigan's governor, Rick Snyder, said on Thursday that there was no other option to tackle the city's $18.5bn of debts. Al Jazeera's Caroline Malone reports.

Detroit has become the largest city in Unites States history to file for bankruptcy after decades of decline and mismanagement rendered the city insolvent.William Black, a professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, talks to Al Jazeera about Detroit filing bankruptcy.

7/18/13 - Anti-government activist Adam Kokesh, who is currently jailed on drug charges and is facing a firearms charge in D.C., says he will someday run for President on a platform of abolishing the federal government. Since July 9th, 31-year old Adam Kokesh has been incarcerated in a cell in the Fairfax County jail which measures seven by seven-and-a-half feet.

On Independence Day, Kokesh had a colleague record a video of the pro-gun activist loading a shotgun on D.C.'s Freedom Plaza. The District has strict gun control laws that generally forbid the carrying of firearms. U.S. Park Police and D.C.'s Metropolitan Police Department opened an investigation.

Several days later, U.S. Park Police used a flash grenade when their SWAT team served a search warrant at Kokesh's home in Herndon, Va. Kokesh was arrested when officers said they found hallucinogenic mushrooms at the house.

In an exclusive jailhouse interview, Adam Kokesh denies any connection to the drugs. Here is part of the transcript of that interview with Kokesh: "If they found a stash of magic mushrooms in my house, they were not mine. ANY IDEA WHOSE THEY WERE, OR WHY THEY WERE IN YOUR HOUSE? I'm pretty confident that, whether or not they found anything, the full paper bags that [U.S. Park Police] brought into my house would insure that they had charges to bring against me. ARE YOU IMPLYING THAT THOSE DRUGS WERE PLANTED? Yes."

Kokesh, who has been arrested several times before by U.S. Park Police, says that agency has a "vendetta" against him, but he believes the evidence in the drug case is weak.

Federal officers have now filed a weapons charge against Kokesh for wielding the shotgun in D.C. on the Fourth of July. Here's more of the interview: "WAS IT A REAL SHOTGUN AND WERE THEY REAL SHELLS GOING INTO IT? Yes. ON THE VIDEO YOU POSTED? Yes. YOU DID KNOW THAT WAS ILLEGAL IN D.C.? It's called civil disobedience."

Adam Kokesh believes the Second Amendment to the Constitution will provide him a successful defense against the D.C. gun charge.

The former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq plans to someday bring his anti-government views before voters. "ARE YOU RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT? Yes sir, in 2020 on the platform of: orderly dissolution of the United States government. WHY IS THAT A GOOD IDEA? Why is having a federal government a good idea at this point?"

Adam Kokesh believes the U.S. military is more harmful than helpful to American security, and the government -- as a whole -- has burdened its citizenry with debt.

Adam Kokesh is 70% disabled from his term of military service. He says he lives only on that money.

His supporters, through their website, adamvstheman.com, are asking supporters to send money for bail and send money so a private attorney can be hired. Kokesh is currently being represented by a public defender.

Kokesh remains in custody in the Fairfax County Adult Detention Center, and, if he is freed on bond, he faces extradition to D.C. to face the gun charge.

July 18, 2013 - Bill O'Reilly Interviews Donald Trump on Economy, China, and Obamacare



Trump would be a hell of a lot better president then Obama, at least he is willing to do what needs to be done instead of creating some BS healthcare system .He's a businessman, he knows how to make deals, he will get tough on China (even if he has ties made in China in which I don't think he knew or maybe he thought we're a screwed country so why not just sell them to stupid people who will only buy them anyway), I don't believe what they say about his net worth (in which they say isn't worth much). Trump has a big fat heart inside I believe it.

Here it comes Detroit about to be largest Bankrupt City .The city of Detroit files for Chapter 9 federal bankruptcy protection, making the automobile capital and onetime music powerhouse the country's largest-ever municipal bankruptcy case. WSJ Global Autos Editor Joe White reports.


This news really ruined Obama's golf game today ... ya America is crumbling apart , but we have 15,000 Russian soldiers to help fix it I hear!!

Steve Keen Exposes Financial Fallacies and Debates the Mortgage Debt Jubilee!


"I don't understand gold." Yes, that's what our beloved Fed Chairman actually told Congress today. Maybe that's why Germany wants 300 tonnes of it back. That would be gold the Fed is holding on its behalf. We have just one word for you Finance Minister Schaeuble: tungsten. But don't worry, Chairman Bernanke assured the S&P 500 -- now at all time highs -- that the monetary QE stimulus will continue until the economy can stand on its own feet. Such anthropomorphization is quite quaint for an econometrician, isn't it? We debunk the likes of Bernanke and talk about the mortgage jubilee with economist Steve Keen.

And, Jamie Dimon can't seem to find a chair that isn't the hot seat. JP Morgan is about to shell out a few hundred million in a settlement with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. That would be for allegedly manipulating energy markets in California, Enron style. Barclays already settled for $435 million. And a similar settlement for JP Morgan would amount to -- well just one sixtieth -- of its $26 billion in revenues reported last Friday. No word yet on how much it actually profited from allegedly bilking Americans.

Finally, subprime is back. The Consumer Financial Protection Board just strengthened mortgage underwriting standards. But if you don't fall under the new rules, don't worry. Because the guy who helped write the rules at the CFPB just went private -- and started a company that will service the very market his old regulatory body now excludes. And, yes, they're even providing interest-only financing -- because that worked so well in 2008. You can't make this stuff up! Perianne breaks down the boom-bust cycle.

Unorthodox ufologist Norio Hayakawa presented his views and research on UFOs, clandestine government activities, and the mysterious Dulce, New Mexico area, rumored to house an underground base. The state of New Mexico itself has been a hotbed of paranormal and UFO activity going back to 1947, he reported. Starting with the Roswell Incident, "the year 1947 was the beginning of a conditioning of belief systems...carefully orchestrated for future events," he commented.

He believes the Roswell crash was staged "by an unknown intelligence" in collusion with an elite part of the US government. UFOs are neither flying nor objects, but rather part of an intelligence that co-exists with us and has the ability to materialize, he explained.

Hayakawa was one of the first to bring Project Bluebeam to public attention in his 1995 documentary video Secrets of Dreamland, which suggested that a covert government would have sufficient technology to artificially simulate a UFO threat in order to bring about a forced global unity.

Regarding Dulce, he has not found direct physical evidence for an underground base there, yet, there have been many strange reports and sightings in the area which encompasses the Jicarilla Apache Reservation. "I think there's a reality on another level that we may not be able to see with our physical eyes" and a base could exist at Dulce in a non-physical realm, he shared.

Biography:

Norio Hayakawa calls himself an unorthodox ufologist and activist. He has spent almost 10 years specifically investigating Area 51 in Nevada. He says that there is much more to Area 51 than just superficial facts made public about this well-known base. In 1990 he also began to investigate the strange goings-on at Dulce, New Mexico. After more than 45 years of researching the UFO phenomenon, he says that a conditioning of belief systems have been orchestrated since 1947 by a manipulative force that is preparing mankind for a near future mysterious scenario. The ingrained and "altered" realities behind both Area 51 and Dulce will play a role in that scenario. In March of 2009 he organized the first-ever Underground Base conference in Dulce, New Mexico.

Wikipedia
The term shadow government (also cryptocracy) besides its party political meaning can also refer to what is sometimes called "the secret government" or "the invisible government," an idea based on the notion that real and actual political power does not reside with publicly elected representatives (for example the United States Congress (or the Cabinet of the United Kingdom) but with private individuals who are exercising power behind the scenes beyond the scrutiny of democratic institutions. According to this belief the official elected government is in reality subservient to the shadow government who are the true executive power.

Conspiracy-oriented literature postulates the existence of a secret government who are the true power behind the apparent government. Examples of such literature include works by Dan Smoot, William Guy Carr, Jim Marrs, Carroll Quigley, Gary Allen, Des Griffin, David Icke, Michael A. Hoffman II and John Coleman. Some of these authors believe members of the secret government may represent or be agents for groups such as the Council on Foreign Relations, The Royal Institute for International Affairs, The Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group, CIA and MI6 in co-operation with international banks and financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements. Also popularizing the idea was the hit US television show, The X-Files.

In his novel Coningsby, Benjamin Disraeli stated that "The world is governed by very different personages from what is imagined by those who are not behind the scenes". One definition of a shadow government is a "secret government within the government". This secret government is the "real" government that controls the legitimate and visible government's agenda. The network of people constituting this secret government are bound by some common agenda known only to each other and/or the people they represent. The agenda may be that of a secret society who have infiltrated the government (examples include Freemasons, Skull and Bones men or Illuminatists). In this case the agenda of the network is known only to those members who are bound by an oath of secrecy.

The shadow government is also considered by popular authors[who?] to be behind black budget projects and covert operations.

One of the most popular conspiracy theories about a shadow government is the notion of a "Zionist Occupation Government

Travelers on their way to Britain might want to leave their phones at home after it was revealed they could be seized and browsed through by police. And amazingly it's totally legal, as Tesa Arcilla reports.


Thanks From Wall Street, gold price and US finance to conspiracies, latest global news, Alex Jones, Gerald Celente, David Icke Illuminati, a potential World War 3, Elite government cover - ups and much more