From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Hold Steady and Foreclosure Sales Rise to Highest Level Since Early 2023

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its May 2025 ICE First Look, which shows that delinquencies and foreclosure activity continues to trend slightly higher on an annual basis despite some seasonal and disaster recovery related improvement.

The ICE First Look reports on month-end delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment statistics sourced from its loan-level database, which covers a majority of the U.S. mortgage market. Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• The national delinquency rate ticked down 2 basis points (bps) to 3.20% in May, though it is up 5.2% (16 bps) year over year (YoY).

• Serious delinquencies – loans 90+ days past due but not in foreclosure – improved seasonally for the fifth consecutive month, but are still up 56K (14%) from the same time last year.

• Disaster-related delinquencies also improved, with those related to the 2024 hurricane season falling by nearly 5K (26%) month over month (MoM) and Los Angeles wildfire-related delinquencies falling by a more modest 9% MoM.

• Foreclosure starts and active foreclosure inventories climbed YoY, with May’s 7K foreclosure sales marking the largest single-month volume in more than two years.

• Prepayment activity, as measured by single month mortality, inched up to 0.71%, the highest level since October 2024, driven by a seasonal rise in home sale-related prepayments. Prepayments were up 23.4% YoY.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

Illegal Immigrant Allegedly Aided By Wisconsin Judge Agrees To Plea Deal

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The illegal immigrant whom Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan is accused of helping evade arrest has accepted a plea deal in which he admitted to entering the United States illegally.

Mexican national Eduardo Flores-Ruiz faces up to two years in prison and a $250,000 fine under the terms of a plea deal filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Wisconsin on June 23.

He is also subject to one year of supervised release. The plea deal states that Flores-Ruiz has agreed to be deported after completing a federal prison sentence.

According to the plea agreement, Flores-Ruiz first entered the United States illegally on Jan. 15, 2013, near Arizona. He was arrested and deported the next day but later re-entered the country.

Flores-Ruiz was arrested in Milwaukee on March 12 over a battery incident. He was subsequently charged with misdemeanor counts of battery, domestic abuse, and causing physical harm.

On April 18, when Flores-Ruiz was slated to appear before Dugan at a Milwaukee courthouse, Dugan allegedly escorted him out through a jury door and evaded immigration agents who were waiting to arrest him.

Federal officials stated that Flores-Ruiz escaped the courthouse and was apprehended by agents outside the building after a foot chase.

Dugan was suspended by Wisconsin’s Supreme Court and charged with obstructing a proceeding and concealing an individual to prevent his arrest.

FBI Director Kash Patel said on social media platform X that evidence indicates that Dugan “intentionally misdirected” federal immigration agents away from Flores-Ruiz, which allowed the illegal immigrant to evade arrest.

The judge has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

In a May 14 motion to dismiss the case, Dugan’s attorneys argued that it is “no ordinary criminal case, and Dugan is no ordinary criminal defendant,” while citing her job as a circuit court judge.

“The government’s prosecution of Judge Dugan is virtually unprecedented and entirely unconstitutional—it violates the Tenth Amendment and fundamental principles of federalism and comity reflected in that amendment and in the very structure of the United States Constitution,” the attorneys stated.

Homeland Security Department Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said:

“This criminal illegal alien has a laundry list of violent criminal charges including strangulation and suffocation, battery, and domestic abuse. Ruiz illegally entered the U.S. twice.”

The Epoch Times reached out to legal representatives for Flores-Ruiz and Dugan but received no response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 15:45

Senate Parliamentarian Rejects 'Drill Baby Drill' Provisions In GOP Megabill

Update (1412ET): First it was the judges. Now Democrat Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough is shredding a ton of provisions in the Big Beautiful Bill - most recently a provision that automatically certifies offshore oil and gas projects as being compliant with the National Environmental Policy Act - skipping the environmental review process that was deemed not germane to the so-called 'Byrd Rule.' 

The rule allows bills to pass via 'reconciliation,' or a simple majority in the Senate - otherwise they require 60 votes to advance. The Byrd Rule requires that reconciliation bills be related to the federal budget, revenue, and the national debt - and MacDonough has been having her way with it. 

Other measures she tossed include a portion that would have required the interior secretary to allow the construction of a controversial mining thorough fare - Ambler Road - in Alaska, as well as another provision that would have removed the interior secretary's discretion to lower fees for solar and wind projects on federal land. 

A section related to natural gas and import fees was also tossed. 

"Democrats continue to show up and fight every provision of this Big, Beautiful Betrayal of a bill, because this bill is an attack on workers and families everywhere," said Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Jeff Merkley (D-OR). "Democrats will not stand idly by while Republicans attempt to circumvent the rules of reconciliation in order to sell off public lands to fund tax breaks for billionaires. We will make sure the Byrd Rule is followed and review any changes Republicans attempt to make to the bill." 

ManDonough previously rejected provisions including allowing states to conduct immigration enforcement, reducing the pay of federal civil service employees if they don't agree to "at-will" status, cutting the pay of Federal Reserve staff, effective defunding the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and requiring Congress to approve regulations that cost over $100 million.

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Senate Republicans are in panic mode this week, frantically rewriting their so-called “big, beautiful bill” before a planned Thursday Friday vote, but the trillion-dollar package is sagging under the weight of internal brawls, Medicaid landmines, and the looming judgment of the Senate parliamentarian, Politico reports.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune

GOP leaders insist they’re on track to start voting Thursday, but senators emerging from a tense closed-door briefing Monday night admitted that major parts of the megabill, including key tax language and Medicaid provisions, remain in flux, and the final text still hasn’t been released.

“I think we’ll eventually pass something, I just can’t tell you when,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) said bluntly. “We’ve got a lot of stuff to work out, and the bill will be changed on the floor.”

The holdup centers on the so-called “Byrd bath,” the parliamentarian’s behind-closed-doors review of which pieces of the legislation qualify under budget reconciliation; the GOP’s only way to pass the bill without Democratic support. Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough’s rulings could land as late as Wednesday night, just hours before the Senate’s first expected vote.

As we noted on Monday, MacDonough (D) has booted several major provisions from the Republican megabill to enact President Trump's agenda - including language which would authorize states to conduct border security and immigration enforcement (more below). 

“Part of it right now is the Byrd bath, and it’s taking a little bit longer,” admitted Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who’s hoping for a Thursday kickoff with final passage over the weekend.

But it’s not just Senate procedure clogging the drain — it’s the substance, too.

SALT Showdown

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has been trying to broker a deal on the controversial state-and-local-tax deduction cap, or SALT. He pitched keeping the $40,000 cap that the House passed while tweaking the income threshold at which it phases out - a move aimed at soothing House SALT rebels.

Problem is, those same House Republicans already rejected that combo days ago. And after Monday night’s briefing, even GOP senators weren’t sure if Mullin had actually sealed any agreement or just tossed out “options.”

Medicaid Minefield

Then there’s Medicaid...

GOP leaders are floating a special fund for rural hospitals to ease concerns over deep Medicaid cuts in the Senate version of the bill, specifically, a plan to slash the provider taxes that many states rely on to trigger larger federal payments.

“I am absolutely happy with a rural fund; I think that would be great,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) said. “Will that solve the issue? I don’t know.”

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) even handed out a printed breakdown showing how much Medicaid money states like his and Hawley’s would lose under the current proposal. Hawley also said Thune reassured senators the bill wouldn’t alter federal cost-sharing for states that expanded Medicaid under Obamacare, a key worry among more moderate Republicans.

But none of that is calming nerves in the House, where GOP leaders are warning that the Senate’s version could be a poison pill.

Speaker Mike Johnson has urged senators to make minimal tweaks to the House-passed bill. House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD) put it more bluntly: “If it should pass the Senate in its current rumored form, it probably would have trouble in the House.”

Parliamentarian Potholes

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are reeling from MacDonough’s early rulings that tossed out several major cost-saving provisions.

A proposal to penalize states for food-aid payment errors, designed to shift costs and save billions, was deemed noncompliant with reconciliation rules. Senate Agriculture Republicans are now scrambling to salvage the plan with a rewrite.

Also in the trash heap: Sen. Mike Lee’s plan to overhaul federal rulemaking and sell off millions of acres of public lands. Lee is now offering a narrower version excluding Forest Service lands and may revive the proposal as a floor amendment.

And the tax section, the heart of the GOP bill, is still under review. Finance Committee staff met with MacDonough Monday and are expected to return Tuesday to go over the language line by line. Final rulings aren’t expected until Wednesday at the earliest.

Trump Steps In

President Donald Trump is now working the phones and the White House to get fiscal conservatives on board.

On Monday, Trump met with Sens. Lee, Rick Scott (R-FL), and Ron Johnson (R-WI) and urged them to support full repeal of Biden’s clean energy tax credits and to focus on slashing Medicaid waste, fraud and abuse. The trio delivered Trump’s message to House Freedom Caucus members in a private meeting Monday night.

But even with Trump leaning in, time is short and the to-do list is long.

Republicans had originally hoped to release the final version of the bill Monday. Now, insiders say it won’t drop until after MacDonough’s rulings land, leaving very little time for senators to read, debate, or amend the text before a floor vote.

Despite it all, Thune remains hopeful. “We’re pushing hard to get this done by Thursday,” he said.

Others aren’t so sure.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 15:20

China Reportedly On Verge Of 100 DeepSeek-Like Breakthroughs Amid Aspirations For World Domination

China is preparing to launch a tsunami of domestic AI innovation, with more than 100 DeepSeek-like breakthroughs (more here) expected within the next 18 months, according to former PBOC Deputy Governor Zhu Min, as reported by Bloomberg. This development signals Beijing's intent to rapidly close the technological gap ahead of the 2030s. 

Speaking at the World Economic Forum's "Annual Meeting of the New Champions" in Tianjin, China, Min told the audience that 100 DeepSeek-like breakthroughs "will fundamentally change the nature and the tech nature of the whole Chinese economy."

The emergence of DeepSeek, a low-cost, powerful AI model, has fueled Chinese tech stocks and underscored China's AI competitiveness despite U.S. restrictions on advanced chips and domestic macroeconomic headwinds. Bloomberg Economics projects high-tech's contribution to China's GDP could rise from 15% in 2024 to over 18% by 2026.

Traders are rotating into Chinese equities, with the Hang Seng Index surging 25% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which is up just 3.3% and effectively flat in real terms. China stocks outperformed soon after DeepSeek's launch in January. 

Global Equities YTD Performance

A successful deployment of 100+ advanced AI systems modeled after high-performance DeepSeek would drastically accelerate China's digital transformation across surveillance, industrial automation, finance, and, most importantly, defense.  

China's Hypersonic Missile 

Min's comments aren't just about more efficient AI chatbots—they serve as a strategic signal from Beijing. The push for AI dominance is increasingly a vehicle for projecting national power as the world fractures into a dangerous bipolar state. With the U.S. and China locked in a zero-sum struggle over who will shape the global economic system of the 2030s (supply chains the U.S. must reclaim), this AI race is rapidly becoming the frontline of a broader power struggle—one that increasingly resembles a winner-takes-all contest for global supremacy. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 15:05

DOJ Accuses Biden-Appointed Judge Of 'Unprecedented Defiance' After Rejecting SCOTUS Ruling Allowing Deportations

Authored by Debra Heine via AmericanGreatness.com,

The U.S. Department of Justice on Tuesday accused an activist Biden-appointed judge of engaging in a “lawless act of defiance” against a Supreme Court decision that came down on Monday.

The Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration may resume expedited deportations of criminal illegal aliens to countries other than their own.

The 6-3 decision stayed U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy’s May 21 order blocking the administration’s attempt to deport a group of violent criminals to South Sudan.

Late Monday night, Murphy issued an order blatantly defying that ruling.

 

Last Month, the Department of Homeland Security had conducted a deportation flight from Texas to South Sudan to remove what it called “some of the most barbaric, violent individuals” living illegally in the United States.

 

“No country on earth wanted to accept them because their crimes are so uniquely monstrous and barbaric,” DHS stated on X on May 21.

Murphy quickly ordered the Trump administration to give the eight deported illegal alien criminals more adequate due process, including a “meaningful opportunity to object” to their removals to a foreign country.

The Boston-based judge also ordered the Department of Homeland Security to give the violent illegals access to phones and attorneys and grant them a minimum of ten days to raise concerns about the “safety risks” of being deported to a third country. If the convicted criminal illegal is found to have a “reasonable fear,” Murphy said, the government would be required to reopen their immigration proceedings.

Murphy’s intervention forced DHS to keep the illegals at a military base in Djibouti, Sudan.

The administration argued in court that its deportation policy already complied with due process and was necessary for removing criminal illegals because their countries of origin often refuse to take them back.

The Supreme Court’s decision Monday lifted Murphy’s order placing restrictions on third-country deportations.

“The Supreme Court’s stay of a left-wing district judge’s injunction reaffirms the president’s authority to remove criminal illegal aliens from our country and Make America Safe Again,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said after Monday’s decision.

“The Supreme Court ruling is a victory for the safety and security of the American people. The Biden Administration allowed millions of illegal aliens to flood our country, and now, the Trump Administration can exercise its undisputed authority to remove these criminal illegal aliens and clean up this national security nightmare,” said Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin in a statement.

“If these activist judges had their way, aliens who are so uniquely barbaric that their own countries won’t take them back, including convicted murderers, child rapists and drug traffickers, would walk free on American streets. DHS can now execute its lawful authority and remove illegal aliens to a country willing to accept them,” McLaughlin added. “Fire up the deportation planes.”

Despite the Supreme Court’s ruling however, Murphy declared in a court order late Monday night that his previous order preventing the deportation of the dangerous criminals to South Sudan “remains in full force and effect.”

In response, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller accused Murphy of trying to “overrule the Supreme Court.”

“A Boston judge openly defying and nullifying a Supreme Court order is a radical escalation of the communist coup taking place within the judiciary,” Miller posted on X.

Attorney General Pam Bondi’s chief of staff at the Department of Justice described Murphy’s defiance as “an Article III insurrection.”

“Last night, hours after the Supreme Court 6-3 blocked a Boston district judge’s lawless preliminary injunction preventing the government from removing the worst of the worst illegal aliens to third countries, the district judge announced business as usual and said its orders enforcing the injunction remained in effect,” said Chad Mizelle. “When a single district judge immediately and flagrantly defies the Supreme Court, that is not the rule of law—it is an Article III insurrection.”

Mizelle added: “Today is Justice Kagan’s ultimate test. She, more than any other Justice, has invoked the rhetoric of respecting the rule of law. She, more than any other Justice, should now recognize that the greatest threat to the rule of law comes from district courts openly defying Supreme Court judgments hours after their issuance.”

Miller told Fox News’ Sean Hannity Monday night to “expect fireworks” when the Trump administration hold’s Murphy “accountable for refusing to obey the Supreme Court.”

On Tuesday, Solicitor General D. John Sauer filed a motion at the Supreme Court addressing Murphy’s “unprecedented defiance” of the court’s authority, calling his order “untenable.”

The district court’s ruling of last night is a lawless act of defiance that, once again, disrupts sensitive diplomatic relations and slams the brakes on the Executive’s lawful efforts to effectuate third-country removals. For over two months now, the Executive has labored under an injunction that this Court yesterday deemed unenforceable.

This Court should immediately make clear that the district court’s enforcement order has no effect, and put a swift end to the ongoing irreparable harm to the Executive Branch and its agents, who remain under baseless threat of contempt as they are forced to house dangerous criminal aliens at a military base in the Horn of Africa that now lies on the borders of a regional conflict.

Sauer also suggested that the court kick Murphy off the case entirely, writing, “given the lower court’s conduct, this Court may consider ordering that the case be reassigned to a different district judge.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 14:45

Goldman Weighs In On Tesla Robotaxi Launch

Tesla officially launched its long-anticipated self-driving Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, on Sunday. A select group of early-access users—many of them FSD beta testers and Tesla influencers on X—have begun sharing their experiences as the AI car company sets its sights on competing near-term with Waymo and, more broadly, becoming a leader in the autonomous ride-hailing industry by 2030. 

A team of Goldman analysts, led by Mark Delaney, provided their initial assessment of the robotaxi service in Austin, which features a fleet of self-driving Model Ys.

They discuss three key items from the launch, including:

1. Our initial thoughts on performance of the early rides, which generally show a good degree of drive smoothness in our opinion but with one user posting a navigation issue with improper use of a left turn lane and the vehicle driving temporarily in the turn lane for traffic going the other direction;

2. How Tesla's Austin service currently compares to Waymo, including the operating area;

3. Our views on how fast Tesla will scale (we continue to expect it to be measured in the near-term).

Delaney said the initial feedback posted on X about Robotaxi has mainly been positive, with users praising the smooth ride experience and tech integration, including personalized music preferences and an in-car customer support feature. However, one early ride encountered a notable navigation error.

This video is circulating on X trying to paint Tesla in a bad light.

It clearly shows the Robotaxi attempting a turn, detecting an error and correcting itself.

This is exactly how a human driver would react and honestly, it reassures me that it’s catching errors and not getting… pic.twitter.com/aamPzfxqke

— Lior (@liorsela) June 23, 2025

"We consider this navigation error as somewhat concerning about the overall level of tech readiness, especially in light of the limited number of vehicles on the road, but also we appreciate that this behavior is not unprecedented to see from human drivers either," the analysts noted.

Tesla had previously indicated that its pilot fleet would consist of 10–20 vehicles, and the service is currently restricted to a limited geographic area in Austin and available only from 6 a.m. to midnight local time. A Tesla employee remains seated in each vehicle, suggesting the company still requires human supervision. 

In contrast, Alphabet's Waymo operates across 37 square miles of Austin on a 24/7 basis, accessible to all Uber users. Tesla is charging a flat fee of $4.20 per ride, while Waymo's pricing is dynamic, based on Uber's existing fare model.

On the subject of Robotaxi scaling in Austin, the analysts said:

The use of an Austin-specific tech stack, a Tesla employee being present in the vehicle (albeit on the passenger side), and the navigation/lane issue reported in the first day of use suggests scaling will be slow in the near-term in our view — As we discussed in our note from 6/20, we hadn't initially expected a Tesla employee to be in vehicle. Given this news, the navigation related error from one early consumer ride, and other factors like geofencing and a version of the software that at least for now is specific to Austin, suggests in our view that scaling in the near-term will be slow. We also believe this suggests that it will be some time before consumers can use FSD on their personal vehicles in a wide operating area.

Adding:

Separately, the regulatory environment will be key to monitor and could determine the speed of the ramp as well. California currently requires permits for robotaxi deployments, and on 6/20 the Texas governor signed a bill that requires robotaxi/AV operator permits starting in September. However, new federal rules could help speed AV adoption.

Delaney pointed out that Tesla added more than $90 billion in market capitalization leading up to the Robotaxi launch, nearly "double Waymo's reported valuation of >$45 bn as of October 2024." In other words, much of the Robotaxi optimism has been priced in. 

The analysts maintained a "Neutral" rating with a 12-month price target of $285, or about 20% below Monday's closing price. Their valuation model suggests Robotaxi could add anywhere from $2.50 to over $80 per share in value by 2040, depending on the eventual fleet size and profit margins. 

Earlier this month, a separate Goldman note outlined that the autonomous vehicles era is just beginning and about to enter hyperscaling in North America. 

Read the full note here... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 14:25

Silver Price Shows What Government Has Done To Our Money

Authored by Douglas French via The Mises Institute,

You hear about gas prices everyday.

The President brags that per gallon prices have dropped to $1.99 in some places.

After paying over $4.00 here in Las Vegas, I wonder where he is talking about. He ran on bringing down prices at the pump, saying “drill baby drill” constantly at his rallies.  

But, in real terms gas prices have gone down.

A line from a Wall Street Journal piece illustrates the point.

“Silver’s rally has made it worth the effort to sift through coin jars looking for old dimes, quarters and half dollars. The melt value of 25-cent coins minted from before 1965, when they were made of silver, is more than $6.50.”

I’m old enough to remember 25-cent gas.

And, someone pumped the gas for you checked your oil and the air pressure in your tires.

During lunch with an old friend, he told me his kids don’t know what cash is, let alone pre-1965 quarters.

No wonder monetary matters don’t really matter to Americans, especially young folk. 

No one seems concerned about the constant devaluation of the dollar.

High prices they blame on whoever is president or corporate greed.  The idea that the problem is the constant creation of more money escapes them.

As Ludwig von Mises wrote, “What people today call inflation is not inflation, i.e., the increase in the quantity of money and money substitutes, but the general rise in commodity prices and wage rates which is the inevitable consequence of inflation. This semantic innovation is by no means harmless.”

The WSJ reports of people selling silver and some that are buying. 

“Daniel Herzner, who owns businesses that buy and sell estate jewelry in White Plains, N.Y., said his phone is ringing frequently with customers eager to sell jewelry and flatware that they inherited or no longer need.”

“They’d rather turn it into cash,” he said.

Cash that’s value will disintegrate.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 14:05

Harvard Wins Injunction Against Trump Admin's Student Visa Ban

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Monday issued a preliminary injunction halting enforcement of President Donald Trump’s proclamation that bars foreign nationals from entering the United States through Harvard’s student exchange visa program.

District Judge Allison Burroughs granted Harvard’s request for an injunction to extend a block on enforcement of the June 4 proclamation while litigation is ongoing.

Trump stated in his proclamation that the Chinese Communist Party and other U.S. adversaries are trying to “take advantage of American higher education by exploiting the student visa program for improper purposes and by using visiting students to collect information at elite universities in the United States.”

The proclamation also pointed to a rise in crime rates at Harvard in recent years, alleging that the university had failed to discipline certain categories of conduct violations on campus.

In a 44-page memorandum, Burroughs stated that the proclamation did not establish any connection between the high crime rates at Harvard and the presence of foreign students.

“The proclamation does not state, for example, that the rise in crime is correlated with a rise in the percentage of international students of Harvard, nor does it cite any evidence whatsoever that international students are committing these crimes, statistics which, presumably, would be available to the federal government if they exist,” she wrote.

Burroughs said the case centers on core constitutional rights to freedom of thought, expression, and speech, which she said must be safeguarded as they serve as “a pillar of a functioning democracy and an essential hedge against authoritarianism.”

The judge found that the government’s attempts to exert control over “a reputable academic institution and squelch diverse viewpoints seemingly because they are, in some instances, opposed to this administration’s own views,” are threatening those rights.

“To make matters worse, the government attempts to accomplish this, at least in part, on the backs of international students, with little thought to the consequences to them or, ultimately, to our own citizens,” she stated.

The Epoch Times has sought comment from both the White House and Harvard but did not receive a response by publication time.

Funding Frozen

Before Trump’s proclamation, the president froze billions in federal funding for medical research at Harvard amid his administration’s crackdown on anti-Semitism and diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives in higher education.

Harvard challenged the move, arguing that the funding freeze had no connection to the alleged harassment of Jewish students on its campus.

In April, Trump threatened to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status.

He then issued the proclamation on June 4 to end the university’s visa program for international students, resulting in an additional lawsuit from Harvard.

The proclamation barred foreign nationals from entering the United States to study at Harvard or take part in an exchange visitor program hosted by the university for six months. It also directed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to consider whether the visas of foreign nationals already enrolled at Harvard should be revoked.

In a June 5 statement, Harvard President Alan Garber said Trump’s order against student visas was “yet another illegal step taken by the administration to retaliate against Harvard.”

Burroughs issued a preliminary injunction on June 5 to block the proclamation. The latest injunction extended that block until the court reaches a decision.

Trump said on June 20 that he has been in talks with Harvard University officials regarding their “large-scale improprieties” and expects to reach an agreement with the university soon.

“They have acted extremely appropriately during these negotiations, and appear to commit to doing what is right,” he wrote on the social media platform Truth Social.

The university has not publicly commented on the president’s announcement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 13:25

Solid 2Y Auction Stop Through Despite Weak Foreign Demand

With attention firmly on the equity meltup which has sent the S&P 1% higher and the Nasdaq looks like it will close in record territory, moments ago we had the week's first Treasury coupon auction when some $69BN in 2 Year notes were sold to what was a very smooth reception.

The high yield of 3.786% was down from 3.955% in May and the lowest since Sept 2024. It also stopped through the When Issued 3.787% by 0.1bps, which was the 4th through auction in the past five for the tenor.

The bid to cover was 2.576, effectively unchanged from 2.567 last month, if just below the six-auction average of 2.61.

Internals were slightly weaker, with Indirects awarded 60.5%, down from 63.3% in May and clearly below the recent average of 71.3%. And with Directs taking down 26.3%, or flat from last month's 26.2%, Dealers were left with 13.2%, higher than last month's 10.5% and the 11.2% recent average.

Overall, this was a solid auction, which is to be expected on the back of dovish Fed speak in recent days and even though Powell tried to keep a hawkish facade today, he too hinted that rate cuts are coming, especially now that oil is once again tumbling and does not threaten to push gas prices sharply higher. As for the market reaction, there was none indicating that the auction was largely as expected. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 13:19

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 14 June

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 June. ...

8-14 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.6% (-2.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.43 (+0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$112.11 (-1.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will increase during the summer travel season; however, we will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

DoE Declares U.S. Southeast Grid Emergency To Avert "Blackouts"

A massive heat dome is scorching the eastern half of the U.S., triggering widespread grid stress. The week began with emergency alerts across the Mid-Atlantic, including a multi-hour blackout in New York City's Queens borough as power demand surged. Now, the Southeast grid is under similar tight conditions. The Trump administration has declared a power emergency as millions blast air conditioning. 

On Tuesday morning, the Department of Energy issued an emergency order under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to prevent blackouts in the Southeast U.S. amid surging demand due to extreme heat. The order allows Duke Energy Carolinas to operate fossil fuel power generators at maximum capacity from early this morning through Wednesday, overriding 'green' rules to maintain grid stability and prevent a rolling blackout. 

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright released a statement on X:

"As electricity demand reaches its peak, Americans should not be forced to wonder if their power grid can support their homes and businesses. Under President Trump's leadership, the Department of Energy will use all tools available to maintain a reliable, affordable, and secure energy system for the American people.

"This order ensures Duke Energy Carolinas can supply its customers with consistent and reliable power throughout peak summer demand."

Duke Energy, the power utility serving around 1.7 million customers across North and South Carolina, warned the DoE on Monday about tightening grid conditions that could lead to "isolated power outages."

Duke Energy is urging customers in the Carolinas to reduce energy use during periods of peak demand today, June 23 from 3-8 p.m., to help lessen the energy demand on the power grid and reduce the potential of isolated power outages. https://t.co/lzcp4RC8bz. pic.twitter.com/mLWCjMdjgH

— Duke Energy (@DukeEnergy) June 23, 2025

What's transpired so far:

• Weather Check: "It's About To Get Brutal"

• "Maximum Generation Alert" Issued for Nation's Largest Power Grid

• Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

• "You're Welcome": Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving 'Green' Maryland From Power Grid Collapse

Just brutal...

The good news is that the Trump administration signed an executive order in early April to "strengthen the reliability" of the nation's power grid after years of de-growth green policies retired ultra-reliable fossil fuel generation in favor of unreliable solar and wind. This action comes amid soaring demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, re-shoring, and broader electrification trends. It's time to shore up the grid to create more stability to bridge the gap until the nuclear renaissance expected in the 2030s. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 13:00

Off Ramps, On Ramps

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Markets are in a jubilant mood as Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to begin within hours. Brent crude prices have fallen by more than 7% at time of writing to $71.48/bbl and US equity indices have finished the day higher across the board. Equity futures in North America and Asia are also pointing higher.

Trump’s announcement followed an Iranian missile strike on the United States’ Al Udeid base in Qatar. The New York Times reports that Iran had provided backchannel notification of the impending retaliation for US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to Qatar and the United States prior to the attack. That was subsequently confirmed in a ‘Truth’ by Donald Trump who described the Iranian attack as “weak”, but also thanked Iran for issuing the heads up.

Trump subsequently took to Truth Social again to announce the ceasefire agreement which he says will effectively end what he is calling the 12 Day War. An Iranian official has since confirmed that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire, raising hopes that an effective off-ramp has been found and that strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan will not drag the US into a protracted regime-change effort.

The ceasefire announcement follows earlier reports that Israel was seeking to seize on the success of US strikes and end the war in coming days. Unnamed officials had reportedly told the Times of Israel that Jerusalem was willing to end its bombing campaign if Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program. Up until now Iran has remained defiant that it would continue its nuclear program and, critically, its controversial drive to enrich its own uranium. So, is there some agreement to come on the nuclear program, or has this simply been placed in the “too hard” basket for now?

While the US claims to have ‘obliterated’ Iran’s enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, the extent of the destruction is not completely clear and it seems that up to 400kg of uranium already enriched to near weapons grade remains unaccounted for. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday that Iran’s enrichment program – including the pursuit of nuclear weapons – would continue, and that “other” countries had expressed willingness to supply Iran with warheads.

That might have been pure bluff as Russia, still reeling from the loss of a friendly regime in Syria, seeks to stave off the loss of another friendly regime in central Asia. In (another) post to Truth Social Trump seemed to treat it as such, criticising Medvedev for casual use of the “N word” (nuclear) while making pointed reference to the technological superiority of the US’s nuclear submarines, which had just fired 30 Tomahawk missiles at the Esfahan facility. The subtext was reasonably clear: “you’re not the only one with extensive nuclear capabilities in the region.”

While the Middle East and energy prices seem to be on course to return to something resembling the status quo ante bellum (aside from Iran’s enrichment capabilities, air defences and ballistic missile stocks), the NATO summit today kicks off in the Netherlands with the FT reporting that Poland is upset that Spain has been granted an exemption to the 5% of GDP defence spending target, and that Belgium is set to seek a similar exemption. Poland’s indignation is easy to understand given its shared border with Russian client state Belarus and its plans to get very close to the 5% spending target this year.

The position taken by Spain (and Belgium) underlines some of the inherent contradictions of European collective defence that seem destined to require strengthened supra-national structures to overcome. Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems to understand that Germany – Europe’s largest economy and more geographically Eastern than other big economies – will need to take the lead for collective security to work. 

Merz reiterated yesterday that Europe can no longer “free-ride” on the United States and must step up defence investment to achieve “strategic independence”. That’s all well and good, but as Mark Rutte pointed out to Chatham House last week, Russia currently produces more ammunition in three months than the entire NATO alliance can in a year, and much of the NATO contribution comes from the United States. Ahead of the NATO summit, our European team examines the conditions for success of boosted European defence spending here.

Critically, Europe lacks a shared nuclear deterrent. Emmanuel Macron has recently indicated that he is open to French nuclear weapons being deployed in EU countries to the East, but that they must remain under complete French control. This raises questions about whether a forward-deployed French nuclear deterrent would be a deterrent at all, especially in light of comments that Macron made in 2022 where he said that the French nuclear doctrine was based on the vital interests of France, and that if Russia were to launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine “or in the region”, this would not meet the threshold for the use of French nuclear weapons. Consequently, Merz remains clear-eyed that French nuclear weapons are not a credible substitute for the US nuclear deterrent.

Meanwhile, Aussie Prime Minister Albanese will not be attending the Indo-Pacific partners event at the NATO summit tomorrow. That event features Donald Trump, who Albanese is likely anxious to meet with following a US decision to place the AUKUS program (the centrepiece of Australia’s defence planning) under review. Australia will instead send Deputy PM Richard Marles, who will presumably attempt to secure assurances from Trump that the US really will let Australia buy some of those nuclear submarines that Trump was bragging about on Truth Social overnight. 

That effort may be complicated by news today that Australia will add YouTube to its social media ban for under-16s, an effective non-tariff barrier for US tech that we explore in a new report on Australian economic statecraft. Does sharing the crown jewel of your defence capabilities with allies who resist your wishes on trade, sanctions and defence spending sound very “America First” when you have insufficient supply for your own needs? Perhaps not.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 12:40

"You're Welcome": Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving 'Green' Maryland From Near Power Grid Collapse

Pennsylvania State Sen. Kristin Phillips-Hill (R-York) wrote in a late Monday Facebook post that the state's surplus electricity supplies were exported to Maryland during Monday's peak demand surge, as temperatures in the region approached 100°F. She credited Pennsylvania's stable power grid with preventing a blackout crisis in "our 'green energy' neighbor - Maryland." As we've reported on several occasions, far-left climate Marxists running Maryland have mismanaged the grid, which now teeters on the verge of a Spain-style blackout disaster if outside energy imports are not secured.

"Just a friendly note to our "green energy" neighbor - Maryland: You're welcome," Sen. Phillips-Hill wrote in the post. 

She said, "During this heat wave, Maryland consumers demand a lot more energy than it generates. If it was not for Pennsylvania - it would be lights out and air conditioning off," adding, "This is another reminder that Maryland should work on supporting (and not shutting down) baseload energy generation rather than require farmers in Southern York County to give up pristine farmland to construct more transmission lines." 

Not even two weeks ago, a top official at Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), a local utility with 1.3 million electric customers and 700,000 natural gas customers, warned that rolling power blackouts could soon become a regular feature in the state due to a rapidly alarming mismatch between total power capacity on the grid and soaring demand. 

As per The Baltimore Sun:

Regular rolling blackouts could become reality for Baltimore-area residents if a lack of energy supplied to the power grid remains unaddressed, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company Vice President Electric Operations Steven Singh warned.

BGE has worked during the last two decades to lessen the number of short-term loads shed events, Singh said, but rolling blackouts — during which power is disconnected from some segments of the community when the grid remains viable — could be implemented if power demand continues to exceed supply.

"It's a huge concern," Singh said. "It's a clear and present issue."

At a recent round table at the University of Maryland … We have a supply and demand issue."

Singh also shared larger concerns with energy shortages that may result as the energy transition away from coal-fired power plants continues, and electric vehicle ownership grows. He said one factor that impacts the region is an increase in data centers — reliant on huge, power-hungry server infrastructure.

Regular rolling blackouts could become a reality for Baltimore-area residents, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company Vice President of Electric Operations Steven Singh said.

Storms and other large-scale weather events are the main reason for outages, while blackouts are caused by a… pic.twitter.com/O0nmbpxXFQ

— The Baltimore Sun (@baltimoresun) June 9, 2025

We first highlighted Maryland's deepening power crisis in August 2024, citing a Goldman Sachs note circulated to institutional clients:

• Goldman Says Mid-Atlantic Power Prices "Finally Caught Up To AI Data Center Load Growth Story"

Also noted:

•  Maryland "Can't Import Itself Out Of Energy Crisis" Amid Urgent Need To Boost In-State Power Generation

At the heart of the crisis is the state's Democratic leadership, which has masqueraded as efficient managers but are, in reality, far-left climate Marxists. Disastrous "green" policies are plunging the state into yet another crisis. 

Maryland needs to wake up to the reality that local elections matter. Power bills are spiraling out of control because Democrats in the state are more focused on Marxist-style reparations schemes to fleece taxpayers, overtaxing residents, having margaritas with illegal aliens, diverting public funds to migrants, pushing radical woke agendas, attempting to install condom machines in elementary schools, and advancing degrowth green policies.

Condoms for Kindergarteners — this is the priority of @mddems. Rather than supplying the grid with more power and lowering electric bills, or giving children stuck in failed schools a better option, Annapolis Democrats want to put condoms in kindergarten classrooms. Sad. pic.twitter.com/rpBog5jkgd

— Mark Fisher (@fisher4maryland) February 21, 2025

Far-left Governor Wes Moore—whom Democrats are eyeing as a future presidential candidate—has steered Maryland into multiple crises. Remember, activists in managerial roles often lack the experience to govern effectively, instead focusing on advancing their ideological agendas. The result is a state in rapid decline—mismanaged policies, soaring costs, and growing frustration among residents. It's no surprise that Marylanders are packing up and leaving in search of better-run Red States. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 12:00

Iran Reopens Airspace To Commercial Flights As Ceasefire With Israel Finally Holds

Update(1300ET): The ceasefire seems to finally be holding as of early evening local time, despite the ongoing accusations of earlier violations when it was to take effect.

"Both Israel and Iran wanted to stop the War, equally! It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!" President Trump said on Truth Social. Were they all destroyed?

And China has belatedly weighed in, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying China supports Iran in achieving a "genuine ceasefire" - but following Beijing's condemnation of the US for striking the country’s nuclear sites.

"China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and, on that basis, achieving a genuine ceasefire so that people can return to normal life," Wang expressed to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in a phone call. 

But here is the clearest indicator yet that skies have cleared of Israeli warplanes and return fire over Tehran:

Iranian airspace partially reopened today, following the country’s ceasefire with Israel after 12 days of hostilities, according to aviation monitoring company FlightRadar24.

“Iranian airspace is now open to international arrivals and departures to/from Tehran with prior permission,” FlightRadar24 said on X. Iraqi airspace has also reopened, it added.

Also, Iranian media is currently airing footage of a large crowd assembled in central Tehran, in an act expressing solidarity with the country’s armed forces. IRNA, Fars, and Mehr are covering the gathering in Revolution Square. Now each side is declaring 'victory' to some extent, but whether the ceasefire will actually stick is anyone's guess.

AFP/Getty Images

* * *

Update(1116ET): On Tuesday the head of Iran's nuclear energy program vowed that the country will continue its nuclear program uninterrupted, despite the Trump-ordered weekend heavy bombings of three key nuclear and uranium enrichment sites.

AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) head Mohammad Eslami said on state television that "plans for restarting [the facilities] have been prepared in advance" and that measures ensuring continued production are in place.

"Despite the evil conspiracies of its enemies," the AEOI said in the statement, "this organization will not allow the path of development of this national industry to be stopped."

Head of #Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization: “We’ve taken necessary measures & are assessing the damaged areas. Plans for revival [of #nuclear facilities] were pre-arranged, and our current strategy ensures no disruption to production & services. pic.twitter.com/3OzppGj6TH

— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) June 24, 2025

"This action, contrary to international law, was unfortunately carried out in the shadow of indifference and even with the cooperation of the International Atomic Energy Agency," the statement read.

This is not surprising, but what is surprising is just how bold and provocative a statement that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov just made. On the question of Iran's now 'missing' (or 'unknown whereabouts') enriched uranium stockpiles, he laid out that Iran has every incentive to hide it from IAEA inspectors. 

"What guarantees are there that the IAEA will not leak this information to the US or Israel?" he posed in public statements on the American military action against Iran, while emphasizing that arms control will fail due to these American-Israeli surprise attacks which killed negotiations.

Lavrov criticized the IAEA Director for demanding to know where Iran's enriched uranium is stored. What guarantees are there that the IAEA will not leak this information to the US or Israel?
— Arms control will not be the same after this surprise attack; everyone will lose. pic.twitter.com/wPR3GA2dj7

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) June 24, 2025

Indeed the Iranians too have long feared that international inspectors could be conduits of information on sensitive facilities for Israeli and US intelligence. And now these same facilities are being targeted for destruction.

* * *

Despite last night's big news of a Trump-declared ceasefire, the reality is it was little more than an effort at a pause, and it's increasingly looking like neither side actually signed onto. Or at least each side issued 'confirmation' with a lot of conditions, and there wasn't even firm agreement on the start time.

As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran kept exchanging lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least four Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance.

But as of Tuesday morning, Trump's message is one of extreme frustration. His fiery statement to the press just moments before boarding Marine One included the declaration, "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*ck they're doing. You understand that." Watch the comments below:

Trump says Israel and Iran ‘don’t know what the fuck they’re doing’ pic.twitter.com/FWoVCqdLL9

— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) June 24, 2025

The warring sides have not heeded Trump's call to immediately halt, and at the very moment the US president has been issuing desperate messages and warnings, explosions are still being observed in Israel and Iran.

Just after the president addressed the press, Israel's Channel 12 said IDF warplanes have launched another round of strikes against Tehran. This also just as Trump issued a new Truth Social post demanding that Israel not attack Iran. "All planes will turn around and head home," he wrote, almost as a directive, so that "Nobody will be hurt" as "the Ceasefire is in effect!"

A big question remains whether he's bringing real leverage to bear against Israel, or if the latest 'objections' are more just show to provide political cover for himself for the negative fallout as war persists. But his current deeply frustrated tone is a reminder of the failures to achieve peace in Ukraine, and the past Ukraine-Russia related statements to just 'let them fight it out' of the last months.

Axios' Barak Ravid offers up an explanation (per machine translation):

Israeli official: Trump called Netanyahu and asked him not to attack Iran at all. Netanyahu told Trump that he could not cancel the attack and that some kind of response was needed to Iran's violation of the ceasefire. Ultimately, it was decided to significantly scale down the attack and cancel the attack on a large number of targets

Times of Israel has also freshly commented on the obvious miscommunication and apparent growing rift among allies concerning plans for the Iran conflict, and whether to halt the fighting of keep up the attacks:

Trump was sending out posts on his Truth Social platform promising that Israel will not strike Iran “after he knew we would attack,” an Israeli official tells the Kan public broadcast.

Israeli officials confirmed that the IAF struck an Iranian radar site north of Tehran, after Iran fired two ballistic missiles at Israel after a ceasefire had taken effect.

But it's still possible, amid the finger-pointing, that ceasefire could take effect Tuesday, though it's anyone's guess precisely when.

In the overnight hours there was this large Israeli attack on Tehran even after ceasefire was announced to the world:

Tehran. After 3am. Israel is bombing all over district 6 & 7 of Tehran. Home to 600,000, the area houses the Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art, which has the largest collection of Francis Bacon paintings in the world. The area is also home to many governmental buildings. pic.twitter.com/TvT76HoPd7

— Samira Mohyeddin سمیرا (@SMohyeddin) June 24, 2025

It may in the end have little substantive to make it stick, and might prove merely a pause or temporary respite for both sides to assess damage and regroup. Here's how we got here, via Newsquawk:

• US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
• Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
• Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
• At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the "ceasefire is now in effect".
• At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM's office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
• The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.

Iran's overnight missile strike on a residential home in Be’er Sheba resulted in some shocking scenes of people seeking to get out and survive the nightmarish ordeal:

DEVASTATION in Beersheba following MISSILE attacks from Iran

Resident in shock, deeply INHALES and SCREAMS out https://t.co/KusIgVzPsR pic.twitter.com/ty1LuWZWoR

— RT (@RT_com) June 24, 2025

Aftermath and rescue efforts of the hit on the Beersheba residential building:

TRAGEDY IN BEERSHEVA: Three of the victims were members of the same family. The fourth person killed was in a nearby apartment.

According to the Home Front Command’s investigation, the missile struck the sixth floor, hit two apartments, and exploded directly inside the shelter.” pic.twitter.com/GoKLvz1lZq

— Hen Mazzig (@HenMazzig) June 24, 2025

Israel is now feeling the drive for vengeance for this and other devastating blows from the Islamic Republic, despite Trump in this rare moment expressing that he's "really unhappy" with Israel. "Bring your pilots home, now!" - is the message not being heeded.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 11:16

Trump Chastises Russia's Medvedev Over 'Casually' Saying The 'N-Word'

President Trump while messaging seemingly non-stop on the Iran-Israel war found time late Monday to lash out at Russia's deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev over his latest nuclear-related comments connected to the ongoing Iran war.

Trump chastised Medvedev for "casually" talking about nuclear weapons, especially given that Medvedev had claimed that due to America's bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, there are several countries ready and willing to provide Tehran with weapons of mass destruction.

The former Russian president didn't identify such nations, but only said in the Sunday statement, "A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."

And he also said provocatively of Iran, "The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue."

Trump's belated clap-back came Monday via his Truth Social platform, where he wrote: "Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the ‘N word’ (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran?"

And for good measure, why not throw in some additional nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. Awesome! pic.twitter.com/6pIfUeNsVU

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 23, 2025

Continuing the humor and obvious sarcasm, Trump informed Medvedev in the message that "the ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually."

"Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually," Trump had said. 

Then Trump pivoted to touting US military might, supposedly on display with the weekend attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

"They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly,” Trump wrote.

Medvedev often acts as what we might call "Russia's John Bolton"...

He plays 'bad cop' to Putin's 'good cop' - or often says the quiet part out loud, and issues the most extreme threats, with Putin often later being the voice of reason, dialing down the threats based on the possibility of the West making concessions in Ukraine.

Via Fox News

Later on Monday, Medvedev actually responded to Trump's N-word commentary. "Regarding President Trump’s concerns: I condemn the US strike on Iran – it failed to achieve its objectives. However, Russia has no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Iran because, unlike Israel, we are parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," he wrote on X.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:40

Peace Through Strength

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group (“GIG”) weighed in on the American Strike. The overall assessment was that this was a good move:

• Helped re-establish deterrence and sent a strong message to all adversaries.

• The assessment was that Iran had limited capacity/capability to strike back.

• Iran would be under pressure internally and externally not to mess with the Strait of Hormuz.

We recommended buying the dip in stocks and bonds, in a large part due to the GIG’s assessment.

Academy had the privilege, yesterday, to be on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio and the Wolf of All Streets (a more crypto centric podcast). We discussed and re-iterated our view that the strike was likely a good decision and would lead to good things! Academy’s section starts at the 56 minute mark in this Bloomberg TV Clip. Much of what we discussed has come to pass – and we sent out an optimistic SITREP shortly after Iran Attacks U.S. Bases.

At this stage Peace Through Strength seems to be working out according to plan. Things can obviously change, but not only has a lot of progress been made in the region, but all of our adversaries have to consider us in a different light after that bold (and successful) strike.

There has been some discussion about how much damage was inflicted. What Iran may or may not have moved away. It is still early to tell, as it will take time to collect the full intelligence, but we argued, and continue to argue:

• The damage was likely extensive. Sensitive equipment, even if not fully damaged, may be inoperable for a long time.

• The damage was secondary to the message delivered. To a great extent, it doesn’t matter what was hit or not hit. Those facilities are likely to be inoperable and inaccessible. Anyone considering entering the facilities, for repair, further work, or extraction, has to realize they will likely be attacked (for those attacks, the Israeli Air Force is more than capable). If things have been moved, it is likely they will be found (intelligence has been very good) so they will ultimately get attacked.

This combination of so many factors, which the GIG has the experience, understanding and insights to lay out, has been working well.

There is talk about Regime Change, and we discuss that in the clip above. Whether that can occur or not, remains to be seen, but our current thoughts are:

• It has to be an organic, groundswell, from the people of Iran.

• It should not be something orchestrated (certainly not via military) by Israel or the U.S.

• With the IRGC command structure hurt badly, with the Ayatollah in hiding, the opportunity may be there.

There is reason to be optimistic that this strike has set the region on a better path.

The “Other” Moving Parts

As discussed in Sunday’s T-Report, there are A LOT of Moving Parts. We will be watching progress on the Big Beautiful Bill now.

More Tariff extensions seem the most likely and obvious path. One thing that we are hearing more about, are various “tariff mitigation” strategies. We have already discussed the potential to change the component values to import the same good into the U.S. at lower tariff rates, by shifting the various input values to countries with lower tariffs (primarily, not China at current levels). We are seeing a surge in USMCA Compliant approvals – a process that was largely ignored, until it had the ability to sidestep tariffs.

On the Fed, we have now had two members, Waller and Bowman try and put July on the table.

The market (nor the Fed) are with our more aggressive view on timing and number of rate cuts, or bond yields in general (we are more bullish than consensus), but things are moving that direction and Peace Through Strength should further help our view.

Things could still go wrong in the Middle East. Iran could dig in its heels on nuclear enrichment, etc., but for now, we can be optimistic. It is not unreasonable for this success to translate into renewed efforts with Russia/Ukraine, which would also be a positive (especially for global bond yields).

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:20

June Gloom Hits Consumer Confidence After Gay May; Inflation Expectations Plunge

After surging by the most in 14 years in May, analysts expected this morning's June data for The Conference Board's consumer confidence index to continue to rebound in June.

However, it did not. The headline Confidence print disappointed, dropping from an upwardly revised 98.4 to 93.0 with future expectations dropping, but Present Situation tumbling to its weakest since Sept 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

“The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.

Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.

Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market.

The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened.

Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”

The Conference Board's Inflation Expectation index tumbled, leaving UMich alone in its partisan pathology...

Source: Bloomberg

Guichard added that:

"Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices."

"Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month."

Of course, the partisanship never ends - we note that Democratic states are seeing confidence collapse while Trump states are seeing confidence rise...

Source: Bloomberg

Let's wait and see if UMich can 'fix' its bias or just keep pushing inflation expectations to the moon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:13

 

 

Today, I am participating in a few events at Bloomberg’s Hedge Fund Forum 2025.

I will be moderating the Emerging Managers Panel:

Hear from new and emerging fund leaders on the opportunities and obstacles of launching and growing a differentiated investment strategy in today’s competitive alternatives landscape, including how they are leveraging AI to enhance investment processes, streamline operations, and navigate the early stages of building a fund.

Matthew Cherwin: Co-Founder & CIO, Marek Capital Management

Imran Khan: Founder & CIO, Proem Asset Management

Matt Jozoff: Co-CEO & Portfolio Manager, Trevally Capital

I did this same panel with different managers each of the past two years. It is a great collection of three emerging managers in a variety of areas who have put up solid numbers. I have been skeptical of the costs of the overall sector, but I am always fascinated by high-performing managers in the alt space who earn their keep. I am looking forward to this conversation.

I will drop the full panel discussion into the MiB feed as a bonus Masters in Business live.

 

The post Bloomberg Hedge Fund & Alternative Manager Forum 2025 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Watch Live: "Very Dumb" Fed Chair Testifies To Congress

Watch Fed Chair Powell's testimony to Congress here (due to start at 1000ET):

*  *  * 

In his prepared remarks ahead of this morning's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his comments from last week's FOMC that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs.

“The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

His comments - with no a bit of dovishness - comes after three of his colleagues (Waller, Bowden, and Goolsbee) all hinted at rate cuts as soon as July in recent days.

Powell said the tariffs’ impact on inflation could be short-lived or possibly be more persistent.

“Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined,” Powell said in a statement that largely echoed remarks he delivered last week.

“Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”

Avoiding the latter outcome “will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,” he said.

President Trump chimed in (early): 

“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate,” Trump said on social media early Tuesday.

“I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”

Economic data so far has shown limited impact from tariffs.

Does make you wonder about "Fed Independence"...

Powell: Inflation Has Eased Significantly but Remains Somewhat Elevated

is it somewhat less elevated than it was in Sept 2024 when you cut 50 bps to ram stocks higher into the election?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 24, 2025

*  *  *

Read Powell's full prepared remarks below:

Chairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

The Federal Reserve remains squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2 percent longer-run objective. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Incoming data suggest that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5 percent last year, gross domestic product (GDP) was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual swing has complicated GDP measurement. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP)—which excludes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending—grew at a solid 2.5 percent rate. Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated, while investment in equipment and intangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter. Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a decline in sentiment over recent months and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment.

In the labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged a moderate 124,000 per month in the first five months of the year. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent in May, remains low and has stayed in a narrow range for the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures. The strong labor market conditions in recent years have helped narrow long-standing disparities in employment and earnings across demographic groups.

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.

Monetary Policy

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. With the labor market at or near maximum employment and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent since the beginning of the year. We have also continued to reduce our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities and, beginning in April, further slowed the pace of this decline to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Policy changes continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.

The effects on inflation could be short lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

The FOMC's obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum-employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.

For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 10:00

Crude Slides After Trump Says China "Can Continue To Purchase Oil From Iran"

Trump continued his crusade against high oil prices, and US energy producers (recall yesterday he posted "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!"), when the President posted on Truth Social that "China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran"...

... which of course they have been doing, purchasing pretty much all the oil Iran is exporting (with the "Asia/Unknown" in the chart below primarily signaling Singapore which is also effectively China).

It was not immediately clear whether Trump's post meant that the US was removing sanctions on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil. If so, that would explain the quid-pro-quo that took place behind the scenes, with Trump convincing Tehran to lay its arms down in exchange for Iran no longer having to hide its exports to China, which were technically sanctioned but nobody enforced said sanctions as it would mean a spike in oil prices.

And ultimately while the Trump post meant just a continuation of the status quo - because whether with or without sancitons China would always import Iranian oil - his intention was clear: hammer oil even more, and sure enough, WTI crude which was already reeling after a near record swing over the past 24 hours, slumped to session lows around $65 before recovering.

At this point, it is clear that it won't be Iran, or any foreign producer, that ends up taking the hit, but rather US shale that is forced to pump much less at ever lower prices, until eventually the first axiom in commodity trading comes true, namely that the solution to low oil prices, are low oil prices... and the resulting collapse in supply as unprofitable companies either shut down or are liquidated. Unfortunately, neither helps makes American energy producers great again.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 09:57