Individual Economists

US Halts Aid To South Africa 'Immediately' As Trump Offers Fast-Tracked Citizenship For Persecuted White Farmers

Zero Hedge -

US Halts Aid To South Africa 'Immediately' As Trump Offers Fast-Tracked Citizenship For Persecuted White Farmers

President Trump on Friday announced the stoppage of all federal funding and foreign aid to the country of South Africa. The State Dept order went out on Thursday, and on Friday Trump took to Truth Social to blast the country's "terrible" treatment of its farmers, which has included "confiscating their land and farms" and "much worse" (an apparent reference to the years-long trend of White farmers being killed). 

While Trump has been hinting at such actions for a while now, he's declared a new asylum policy concerning South Africa and its embattled farmers: "To go a step further, any Farmer (with family!) from South Africa, seeking to flee that country for reasons of safety, will be invited into the United States of America with a rapid pathway to Citizenship." He then clarified this initiative takes effect "immediately"

Thursday's State Dept cable implements Executive Order 14204 immediately suspending aid disbursements to South Africa, though with reportedly some minimal exceptions - such as a global US-sponsored HIV/AIDS program which is very active in the country.

"To effectively implement EO 14204, all bureaus, offices and missions shall pause all obligations and/or dispersion of aid or assistance to South Africa," the cable which is signed by the secretary of state Marco Rubio reads.

Rand tumbles on Trump's new statement slamming South Africa...

All of this has sparked deep controversy and pushback among Dems, especially given Elon Musk has blasted his native country for "openly racist policies" targeting Whites.

There's been widespread belief that Musk has influenced the White House on South Africa policy, given also that the State Department cable specifically cites "unjust racial discrimination" against white Afrikaners.

While White South Africans make up some 9% of the country's nearly 60 million citizens, they still disproportionately control much of the nation's land and wealth. Black organizations have advocated in some instances taking it back by force, blaming the prior apartheid regime before it ended in the early 1990s.

We've previously explained that the following question presents a conundrum for the mainstream media, which prefers to simply pass over the issue in silence: what happens when white people are the minority under attack?

That's a question that's simply not acceptable according to the establishment media, and any suggestion that such a thing is possible is treated as an act of xenophobia. White people can never be considered a "marginalized minority".  This is the contradiction the western public often encounters when the issue of South Africa is broached.

And more of our recent and prior coverage can be found here:

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 09:35

Trump: Everybody Should Get Rid Of Their Nuclear Weapons

Zero Hedge -

Trump: Everybody Should Get Rid Of Their Nuclear Weapons

Via The Libertarian Institute

President Donald Trump restated his desire to abolish nuclear weapons during a White House presser on Thursday. "It would be great if everybody would get rid of their nuclear weapons. [I know] Russia and us have by far the most," the president told reporters in the Oval Office.

"China will have an equal amount within four to five years. It would be great if we could all de-nuclearize because the power of nuclear weapons is crazy," the president emphasized.

Currently, nine countries – the US, UK, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel – possess nuclear weapons. With global tensions on the rise, several nations, including the US, are adding to their strategic capability.

According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, Beijing is working to ramp up its production of nuclear weapons. Last year, the agency predicted that China could have over 1,000 nuclear weapons. However, that would still give Beijing a far smaller arsenal than Washington and Moscow, which each have around 1,500 deployed nuclear weapons and thousands more in storage.

Shortly after returning to the White House in January, Trump said he spoke with President Vladimir Putin about denuclearization during his first term, and that the Russian leader was receptive to the idea. "We were talking about denuclearization of our two countries, and China would have come along. China right now has a much smaller nuclear armament than us, or field, than us, but they’re going to be catching [up] at some point," Trump said.

"I will tell you that President Putin really liked the idea of cutting back on nuclear, and I think the rest of the world, we would have gotten them to follow, and China would have come along too. China also liked it," he added. "Tremendous amounts of money are being spent on nuclear, and the destructive capability is something that we don’t even want to talk about. It’s too depressing."

Trump has also discussed negotiating a deal with Moscow and Beijing that would see all three countries drastically cut military spending.

However, while Trump has at times voiced support for demilitarization and denuclearization, during his first term in office he scrapped two major arms control agreements, the Open Skies and the Intermediate Range Nuclear Force treaties.

Additionally, Trump refused to engage in bilateral discussions with Russia on extending the last nuclear arms control agreement between the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, the New Start Treaty. He insisted that Moscow must pressure Beijing to make it a trilateral deal, a demand that almost led to the downfall of the landmark deal.

Though President Joe Biden was able to reach an agreement with Putin to extend the treaty for five more years in 2021, it is set to expire next year without another extension.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 09:05

Comments on February Employment Report

Calculated Risk -

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.
Earlier: February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in February at 83.5% from 83.5% in January.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.5% from 80.7% the previous month.
Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in February.   
Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 million from 4.48 million in January.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  
Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2N/A501 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak
Summary:

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.
The headline number was decent.

February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk -

From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 151 thousand in February.  Private payrolls increased by 141 thousand, and public payrolls increased 11 thousand.

Payrolls for December and January were revised down 2 thousand, combined.
Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In February, the year-over-year change was 1.95 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.4% in February, from 62.6% in January. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.9% from 60.1% in January (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January.

This was slightly below consensus expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.  
I'll have more later ...

Futures Flat Ahead Of February Jobs Report

Zero Hedge -

Futures Flat Ahead Of February Jobs Report

US equity futures erased a modest rebound from yesterday's 1.8% rout ahead of today's 8:30am jobs report and Powell's 12:30pm speech. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were unchanged and well off session highs, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%, with Mag 7 names mixed, led by NVDA’s +1.4% pre-market gain after the bullish AVGO (+13%)  earnings. Underscoring the growing risk aversion in the markets, stocks failed to stage a rebound even after Trump delayed levies on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade deal. Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% following a broadly weaker session for Asian stocks as Trump’s shifting approach to trade tariffs hampers risk sentiment. Bond yields are lower as is the USD, although off session lows. Commodities are actually higher for once led by oil (WTI +1.6%) and base metals (Aluminum +1.4%; Copper +1.6%). In crypto, Bitcoin slumped after Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve that failed to meet market expectations. Today, we will hear the payroll data at 8:30am ET. Consensus looks for +160k vs. +120k whisper (143k prior); the UR is expected to remain at 4.0% vs. 4.0% prior and Hourly Earnings to print 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior.

In premarket trading, Broadcom (AVGO) shares jumped 11% after the chipmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong, reassuring investors about the demand prospects for AI-related infrastructure. In sympathy, chip stocks gained: Micron (MU) +1.3%, Applied Materials (AMAT) +1% and AMD +0.5%. Nvidia led gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks (Nvidia +1.4%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -0.4%, Microsoft -0.3%; Meta, Amazon and Alphabet little changed). Here are other notable premarket movers:

  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares sink 20% after the maker of servers gave an outlook that is weaker than expected. The company also said it would eliminate about 3,000 jobs
  • Gap shares rise 18% after the retailer reported comparable sales in all brands that topped Wall Street expectations
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance is trading 5.7% after the US drugstore chain agreed to be purchased by Sycamore Partners for $10 billion
  • Intuitive Machines shares tumble 34%, extending losses after Thursday’s 20% selloff, as the space firm believes its second lander may be in the wrong orientation on the moon
  • Bigbear.ai shares slide 13% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that are weaker than expected

US employers likely added 160,000 jobs last month, showcasing a labor market holding steady in the face of mounting policy uncertainty, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, although as UBS notes, the whisper number is well lower, at around 122,000 (our full preview can be found here). 

On Thursday, Wall Street failed to stage a rebound even after President Donald Trump delayed levies on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade deal. The back-and-forth on tariffs “is creating a lot of uncertainty and that is showing up not only in markets, which have become quite volatile, but also in forward looking leading indicators, such as surveys and purchasing managers indexes,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier. “For now the hard data remains good, but the soft data is deteriorating, and the question is which one is correct.”

After the jobs report there is another notable highlight: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak at a monetary policy forum at 12:30pm.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, sank as much as 5.7% and four other digital tokens that had previously been highlighted by Trump fell at least 3%, as a potential lack of new buying weighed on the market. The executive order signed by Trump indicated that the government wouldn’t use taxpayer money to fund a strategic reserve of the largest digital asset. Instead, the reserve would be capitalized with Bitcoin already owned by the federal government. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

  • UMG shares rise as much as 6.3% as the music label reported higher-than-expected revenue from subscriptions, an important line that contributed to over one third of the firm’s sales.
  • Elia shares jump as much as 19%, marking its biggest daily gain on record, after the electricity transmission company posted results and guidance that trumped expectations.
  • Vivendi shares rise as much as 4.5% after the French media firm said its intention is to sell its stake in Telecom Italia when it gets good terms.
  • Ferragamo shares slump as much as 19% after the Italian luxury goods maker reported a wider-than-expected loss for the full year and gave an outlook that analysts said was cautious, stoking worries over subdued demand.
  • Just Group shares fall as much as 17%, the most since March 2020, after the UK financial services company’s adjusted earnings came in well below estimates.
  • Zurich Airport shares fall as much as 6%, the most since August. The company gave cautious guidance, held back by lower retail revenues due to shop closures and higher labor costs, according to Stifel.
  • SFS shares fall as much as 8.6% after the Swiss mechanical fastening systems and components maker reports results that were below expectations.
  • Hensoldt shares fall as much as 8.2% after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the German defense company’s shares to reduce, saying the speed at which the share is discounting the future is “dangerous” and underplays execution risks.

Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% following a broadly weaker session for Asian stocks as US President Donald Trump’s shifting approach to trade tariffs hampers risk sentiment. Consumer product and travel shares are leading declines in Europe as the euro extends its post-ECB rally, climbing 0.7% to ~$1.0860. While Europe’s stock benchmark retreated on Friday, Germany’s historic shift toward increased spending helped put the euro on track for its best week since 2009. The prospect of more debt issuance hoisted yields on German bonds by the most since 1990 earlier in the week. The rate on 10-year bunds was little changed on Friday at 2.83%.

Asian stocks fell after US President Donald Trump’s whipsaw tariff announcements added uncertainty to global markets, with Japan and Australia leading declines. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1%. Still, the measure is on track to cap its best week since September on positive signals for China from the National People’s Congress. Japan and Australia’s benchmarks dropped the most in the region. Trump’s order to delay tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade agreement is doing little to assuage investors’ concerns on increasing unpredictability in markets. Japan’s export-sensitive electronic stocks, Sony Group and Nintendo, were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge, while US-exposed Macquarie Group also slipped. “Further escalation of trade tensions – such as new tariffs or breakdowns in talks – could spur more market volatility and downside for trade-sensitive stocks,” said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro in Sydney. “Sectors like autos, aerospace, technology hardware, apparel, and agriculture are especially sensitive.”

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.4% to $67.30. Spot gold gains $6 to around $2,918/oz. Bitcoin falls 1% to around $89,000 after Trump’s crypto executive order disappointed

Looking at the US event calendar, today's data calendar includes February jobs report (8:30am) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (10:15am), Williams (10:45am), Kugler (12:20pm, 1pm) and Powell giving keynote speech on the economic outlook (12:30pm).

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,768.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 553.18
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 188.13
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 591.18
  • Nikkei down 2.2% to 36,887.17
  • Topix down 1.6% to 2,708.59
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 24,231.30
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,372.55
  • Sensex little changed at 74,384.75
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 7,948.17
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,563.48
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.82%
  • Euro up 0.7% to $1.0863
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $70.42/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,921.77
  • US Dollar Index down 0.45% to 103.60

Top Overnight News

  • US President Trump will sign executive orders today at 14:30EST/19:30GMT and deliver remarks at the White House Digital Assets Summit at 15:00EST/20:00GMT
  • US House Speaker Johnson aims to hold a CR vote on Tuesday and expects it will pass, while the CR text could be released as soon as Friday.
  • The United States is planning to charge fees for docking at U.S. ports on any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels and will push allies to act similarly or face retaliation, a draft executive order stated. RTRS
  • Ontario Premier Doug Ford is steaming ahead with his pledge to impose 25 percent tariffs on electricity sent to the United States starting Monday, despite President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend most tariffs on Mexico and Canada Thursday afternoon. Politico
  • US President Trump sent a letter to Iran urging negotiations: Fox Business
  • The Trump administration believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has apologized for his recent behavior, and top U.S. officials are prepared to meet with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia next week to set the stage for potential peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. WSJ
  • Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said the economy is in incredible flux and hard to know where things will land, while he added that if they wait for trends to show up in national economic data before acting, they could be too late. Bostic also said he would be surprised if they get a lot of clarity on the impact of policies before late spring into summer and noted the decision at the May or June meeting will depend on how clear things get
  • Mexico will review its levies on Chinese shipments, President Claudia Sheinbaum said — a possible win for Donald Trump’s “Fortress North America” push. BBG
  • The Fed’s Raphael Bostic said it could take several months to understand how Trump’s policies will affect the economy, suggesting rates may remain steady until late spring. BBG
  • China’s trade numbers fall short of expectations for the Jan/Feb period, w/exports rising 2.3% (vs. the Street +5.9%) while imports sink 8.4% (vs. the Street +1%). RTRS
  • China’s exports hit a record $540 billion in the first two months of 2025 as tariffs drove the frontloading of shipments. Bloomberg Economics said a surprise drop in imports hints at domestic weakness. BBG
  • BOJ officials will likely hold policy steady this month, but could discuss whether another rate hike is needed at the May meeting given continued upside inflation pressures. RTRS

Tariffs/Trade

  • US President Trump posted on Truth "After speaking with President Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd". It was later reported that Trump signed the amendment to Mexico and Canada tariffs to make USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until April 2nd.
  • US President Trump said most tariffs are to start April 2nd and predominant tariffs will be reciprocal, while he said steel and aluminium tariffs will not be modified. Trump cited a little short-term interruption on tariffs and said tariffs are something the US has to do. Trump said he is not even looking at the market and noted the long-term economy is very strong. Furthermore, Trump said there is no USMCA exemption for auto tariffs next month, according to Reuters.
  • White House said President Trump's exemption on 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico is not retroactive, while officials noted that some automakers think they will need to pay 25% tariffs on three days of imports.
  • US President Trump sent a letter to Iran urging negotiations: Fox Business
  • Fed's Bostic (2027 voter) said the economy is in incredible flux and hard to know where things will land, while he added that if they wait for trends to show up in national economic data before acting, they could be too late.
  • US House Speaker Johnson aims to hold a CR vote on Tuesday and expects it will pass, while the CR text could be released as soon as Friday.
  • Canada's Finance Minister said Canada will delay the second wave of tariffs on CAD 125bln of US products until April 2nd.
  • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick informed Brazilian Vice President Alckmin in a call that the US could postpone tariffs on Brazilian goods, while Alckmin believes Brazil and the US could reach a good understanding on tariffs policy through dialogue and noted the sides agreed to hold further bilateral talks in the coming days.
  • US is to impose fees on any vessel entering US ports that are part of a fleet which includes vessels built or flagged in China and the US is to engage allies to impose similar measures or risk US retaliation, according to draft order.
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said the abuse of fentanyl is an issue that the US has to solve and noted regarding US-China relations that if one side exerts pressure, China will resolutely counter that. Furthermore, Wang Yi said China's economy grew 5% last year despite the pressure of unilateral US sanctions.
  • UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds vowed to ‘stand up’ for British steel as US tariffs loom, according to FT.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region followed suit to the losses stateside amid growth concerns, tech weakness and tariff uncertainty, while participants digested Chinese trade data and braced for US jobs data. ASX 200 retreated below the 8,000 level with the declines led by tech following the rout in US counterparts and with the top-weighted financial sector also suffering firm losses. Nikkei 225 underperformed and dipped to sub-37,000 territory in early trade with weakness in tech stocks dragging the index lower, while long-term Japanese yields continued to rise. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially bucked the trend despite the weaker-than-expected Exports and Imports data from China, while there were recent support pledges by the nation's central bank, finance and securities heads including PBoC Governor Pan who said they will study and establish new structural policy tools, as well as cut interest rates and banks’ RRR at the appropriate time. However, the benchmarks ultimately succumbed to the broader risk tone.

Top Asian News

  • BoJ is seen keeping policy steady at this month's meeting, although three sources familiar with its thinking said inflationary pressures from wage gains and prolonged food price rises could prompt discussion of another hike as soon as May.. Thereafter, BoJ is reportedly leaning towards holding the key rate at the March meeting, via Bloomberg citing sources; wishes to monitor the January hike and impact of US policies
  • South Korean court cancelled the arrest of South Korea President Yoon although Yoon's lawyer said he won't immediately be released as prosecutors can appeal, while the Presidential Office said it hopes Yoon will return to work soon.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) began the session entirely in the red, and continued to trundle lower in early morning trade; price action has been relatively choppy, with focus now on US NFP. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Telecoms is leading today, albeit modestly so; newsflow for the industry has been light aside from EU Defence Commissioner Kubilius saying it is possible to replace Starlink in Ukraine quickly. Consumer Products is the clear underperformer today, with particular weakness in the Luxury after Chinese trade data and Ferragamo results. US equity futures are modestly firmer footing; the lift in sentiment today could be attributed to the strong Broadcom results; Co. shares are up 12% in pre-market trade after reporting strong AI-demand in Q1, where profits and sales topped expectations. The highlight of the day is the US jobs report for February, where the pace of payroll additions is seen at 160k (vs 143k in January), the jobless rate is seen unchanged at 4.0%, while average earnings are seen unchanged at 41% Y/Y. Tesla (TSLA) added to "best ideas list" at Wedbush.

Top European News

  • EU is to explore long-term reform of fiscal rules for defence, while it was separately reported that Spanish PM Sanchez said Spain to bring forward the timeline to reach 2% of GDP defence spending.
  • ECB's Villeroy says we are winning the battle with inflation; ECB must be ready to act and react.
  • ECB's Muller says euro-area inflation is nearing the ECB's 2% target, via Bloomberg. Too early to assess the potential impact of US tariffs. Trade restrictions would dampen growth and increase prices. Emphasizes increased caution regarding future rate cuts.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves met with primary dealer firms in the Gilt market on 6th March; reiterated a commitment to fiscal rules and that growth is the number one priority for the government.

FX

  • USD's miserable run for the week has extended into Friday trade. DXY started the week off around the 107.56 mark but has since ripped through its 200DMA to the downside at 104.99 and printed a YTD trough at 103.56. Ahead, US NFP and of course any updates from President Trump regarding trade.
  • This week's monster rally in the EUR has continued into today's session with the pair printing a fresh YTD Peak at 1.0871. Upside this week has stemmed from the recent spending pledges coming out of Germany, a hawkish tweak to ECB guidance and an ongoing slew of soft data releases out of the US. On the ECB, source reporting in the aftermath of the decision noted that some officials see an increasing chance of a rate in April with 2.5% unlikely to be the terminal rate. Others on the GC see a growing chance of a pause in their easing cycle at their next meeting before rates come down again. Attention is now on a test of 1.09; not breached since 6th Nov.
  • Overnight, USD/JPY traded on both sides of the 148.00 level before ultimately moving lower alongside the risk-off mood in APAC. In terms of domestic newsflow, source reporting via Bloomberg noted that the BoJ is reportedly leaning towards holding the key rate at the March meeting as it wishes to monitor the January hike and impact of US policies. Furthermore, it sees recent wage developments as being within expectations. The downside in USD/JPY has led to another YTD trough for the pair at 147.20.
  • GBP is on the front foot vs. the USD once again and has printed another YTD peak at 1.2925. As has been the case throughout the week, fresh macro drivers for the UK have been lacking and therefore it is the USD leg of the equation that has been the primary driver for Cable. The pair has soared from the 1.2577 opening price on Monday, clearing its 200DMA at 1.2785 and made its way onto a 1.29 handle.
  • Antipodeans are both bucking the trend of other majors and are on the backfoot vs. the USD. Price action takes place in the context of the risk-off mood in APAC trade and as participants digested the latest trade figures from Australia and New Zealand's largest trading partner, China which showed a surprise contraction in imports and a miss on exports.
  • CAD is flat vs. the USD following a heavy day of tariff-related newsflow yesterday. To recap, Trump signed an amendment to Mexico and Canada tariffs to make USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until April 2nd. However, there will be no USMCA exemption for auto tariffs next month, steel and aluminium tariffs will not be modified and April 2nd reciprocal tariffs will still go ahead. On net, the announcements have provided some reprieve for CAD. Ahead, the region's own jobs data.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1705 vs exp. 7.2406 (prev. 7.1692).

Fixed Income

  • Bunds are firmer in a modest bounce from recent significant pressure. At best, Bunds have been to a 128.18 peak with gains of 116 ticks at best. A move which is likely a modest paring of recent extensive downside and also a function of the downbeat European equity risk tone. Bunds in the morning got hit by a very soft Industrial Output report for January which printed outside of the forecast range and sparked immediate pressure of around 30 ticks in Bunds to the eventual 127.54 trough. A move which was potentially spurred by the soft Industrial data justifying the fiscal measures outlined by incoming Chancellor Merz earlier in the week.
  • USTs are firmer but in a narrower 110-25 to 111-03 band. Benchmarks benefitting from the uptick in Bunds as discussed above, more sources pointing to the BoJ potentially remaining on hold in March (pricing has a 96% chance of no move implied) and mainly waiting for Payrolls & Powell. That aside, following the concessions on tariffs by Trump on Thursday we are keenly awaiting any fresh updates to this for/from Canada and Mexico in addition to and perhaps more pertinently anything relating to China.
  • Gilts find themselves following suit with broader price action but caught between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitudes. Currently back below the 92.00 mark but has been above the figure in a 91.73-92.13 band. Specifics for the region light with the initial bias a bullish one on account of the above and indeed Gilts opened higher by around 33 ticks.

Commodities

  • Crude is on a firmer footing and currently trade just off session highs, with both WTI currently higher by circa USD 0.98/bbl thus far; support today lacks a clear driver, but with upside coinciding with strength at the European cash open. Brent'May currently trading at the top end of USD 69.30-70.50/bbl range. Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC+ is to raise oil output from April, but might reverse that decision afterwards if there are imbalances in the market. This sparked little move in the complex.
  • Natgas prices began the morning softer, but jumped on news that a Russian attack “significantly” damaged Ukraine’s gas production facilities; which caused operations to cease. Dutch TTF currently higher by around 4%.
  • Spot gold traded sideways overnight, but picked up a touch in European trade, fuelled by the weaker dollar, and ahead of the US NFP report. The yellow metal is firmer by 0.3%, above the USD 2900/oz mark, and within a USD 2,896.83-2,923.06/oz range on the session.
  • Copper futures are subdued amid the mostly negative risk tone, with its biggest buyer, China, printing weaker-than-expected trade data.
  • Russia Deputy PM Novak says OPEC+ is to raise oil output from April, but might reverse that decision afterwards if there are imbalances in the market. OPEC+ decision to raise output due to seasonal rise in demand. Oil flows via CPC are at reduced volumes after recent drone attacks, pumping will depend on production level. Russia's oil output is well below OPEC+ quota in February, will be taken into account within the deal. Russia aims to fully comply with OPEC+ deal. Says parties subject to the deal will analyse possibility to speed up compensation for previous overproduction.
  • Qatar set April Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl April Land Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.85/bbl.
  • Saudi Arabia has set the April Arab light crude oil OSP at Asia at plus USD 3.50bbl vs. Oman/Dubai average, according to documentation cited by Reuters
  • UBS sees price level of USD 1000/oz for Palladium in 2025; expects a deficit of around 300k/oz, or 3% demand in 2025; expects it to remain a laggard in the precious metals space.
  • China Feb Foreign reserves USD 3.227tln (exp. USD 3.229tln); gold reserves USD 208.6bln (prev. USD 296.5bln).
  • Ukraine's Energy firm DTEK says Russian attack significantly damaged its gas production facilities in Ukraine's Poltava region; these facilities have ceased operations after the attack.
  • Kazakhstan ships 100k T of oil to Germany via Druzhba pipeline in Feb, according to IFAX citing Kaztransoil.
  • Kazakhstan Energy Minister says their oil output is above OPEC+ quotas; has tasked oil majors to cut oil production. Intend to optimise oil output in March. To cut oil export via the CPC. Consultations will be held next week in the US with the CEOs of major shareholders in big oil projects in Kazakhstan. Told major oilfield shareholders, ExxonMobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL LN), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) to cut March volumes, was received well.
  • UBS sees price level of USD 1000/oz for Palladium in 2025; expects a deficit of around 300k/oz, or 3% demand in 2025; expects it to remain a laggard in the precious metals space.
  • Saudi Arabia has set the April Arab light crude oil OSP at Asia at plus USD 3.50bbl vs. Oman/Dubai average, according to documentation cited by Reuters.
  • Bank of America reiterates its unchanged USD 60-80/bbl medium-term forecast range for Brent.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia's Kremlin say they are closely monitoring EU defence initiatives and warn they may need to implement necessary countermeasures to safeguard Russian national securitySays Trump's call for denuclearisation is on the agenda. Dialogue with the US on arms control is essential.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine and the US are to have a meaningful meeting next week and that Ukraine seeks a truce for air strikes and sea operations, while he added that Russia needs to release POWs to establish trust. Zelensky also said he will meet with the Saudi Crown Prince next week, and then the Ukraine team will remain in Saudi for a meeting with US officials.

Geopolitics: Other

  • French President Macron said he was approached all day by other EU leaders to discuss the nuclear deterrence offer and technical talks will start on nuclear deterrence with EU leaders in which he hopes to see new cooperation by the end of the first half of 2025. Furthermore, Macron said Russia reacted the way it did to his speech because what he said is true and that Putin was piqued because they know his game, while he said he will talk with Putin once it is decided it is the right time.
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the international situation in 2025 remains full of challenges, while he added that China and Russia have established a new model of major-country relations and their relationship will not be disturbed by third parties. Wang also stated that Taiwan has never been a country and it never will be, as well as noted they should realise the complete 'reunification' of the motherland.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Feb. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 143,000
    • Feb. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 146,000, prior 111,000
    • Feb. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 2,000, prior 3,000
    • Feb. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
    • Feb. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.5%
    • Feb. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.6%, prior 62.6%
    • Feb. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
    • Feb. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
    • Feb. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.2, prior 34.1
  • 15:00: Jan. Consumer Credit, est. $14.9b, prior $40.8b

Central Banks

  • 10:15: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Policy Transmission
  • 10:45: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Panel on Policy Transmission
  • 12:20: Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Rebalancing Labor Markets
  • 12:30: Fed’s Powell Speaks on the Economic Outlook
  • 13:00: Fed’s Kugler Appears on Panel Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the end of what has been a tumultuous week for markets, as I step in for Jim who should be in the air just south of Greenland when this hits your mailboxes. Fierce cold winds were again blowing in US equity markets yesterday, with ongoing trade policy volatility sending the S&P 500 (-1.78%) to its worst day of 2025 for a second time this week. This came even as President Trump announced a tariff delay for USMCA-compliant goods coming from Mexico and then, later in the day, from Canada. Over in Europe, it was a quieter session, with the ECB delivering its fifth consecutive 25bps cut, but leaving open the possibility of a pause, while longer-dated yields continued to grind higher after their historical rise the previous day.

Kicking off with tariffs, yesterday President Trump signed orders delaying until April 2 tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that meet USMCA requirements, which should exempt about half of the goods affected by the new 25% tariffs. So a sizeable but partial rollback, though the share of exempt goods might rise as companies seek to adjust to the new rules. The coverage under USMCA trade agreement, which was renegotiated in President Trump’s first term, relates mostly to rules of origin requirements, so the partial exemption could be seen as addressing concerns over re-imports from third countries. Still, with this being a delay rather than a lasting exemption and with reciprocal tariffs also expected to be announced after April 2, this leaves plenty of lingering tariff uncertainty. The trade rhetoric remained tense vis-à-vis Canada in particular, with Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Trudeau saying earlier in the day that we will be "in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future.” By contrast, President Trump made more conciliatory comments towards Mexico President Sheinbaum, who said later on that her country would “review the tariffs that we have with China”.

The ongoing uncertainty dragged on equities, as the S&P 500 (-1.78%) fell back to levels seen before the US election. In another volatile session, the index traded -1.65% lower early on before recovering to only -0.5% after comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick that a USMCA-compliant delay was likely, but sentiment then soured again after the move was confirmed as the noisy policy signals seemed to add to the risk-off tone. In fact, yesterday marked the sixth session in a row that the S&P 500 moved more than 1% in either direction, the longest such run since November 2020. Reflecting this volatility, the VIX rose to a new YTD high (+2.94pts to 24.87). Underperformance by tech stocks saw the NASDAQ (-2.64%) join the Magnificent 7 (-2.89%) in technical correction territory, with the index down -10.43% from its mid-December high. For the Mag-7 the decline was led by slumps for Nvidia (-5.74%) and Tesla (-5.61%), with the two companies now down -26% and -45% from their recent peaks.

Amid the risk-off tone, rates markets moved to again price a full three Fed cuts by the December meeting (+5.9bps to 76bps). In turn, short-dated Treasuries rallied, with 2yr yield down -4.6bps to 3.96%, while the 10yr yield (-0.1bps) was little changed at 4.28%. These rate moves came despite mostly patient commentary from Fed officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he is growing more concerned that the slowing in inflation “is at risk”. Fed Governor Waller viewed a March cut as unlikely but saw room for two, or possibly three, rate cuts this year. And later on, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that when it comes to policy of the new administration he would be “surprised if we got a lot of clarity before the late spring into summer”. Treasury yields are trading another 2-3bps lower overnight as I type.

Looking forward to today, the main event is the US jobs report, which should get even greater attention given the recent softening in US data. Our US economists expect payrolls to gain +160k in February, up from 143k in January. They see the unemployment rate staying at 4.0% but hourly earnings growth returning to +0.3% from +0.5% in January. Ahead of the payrolls print, yesterday weekly jobless claims sent a fairly upbeat signal on the US labour market. Initial claims fell to 221k (vs 233k expected) in the week ending March 1, reversing an earlier spike, though continuing claims for the prior week surprised to the upside (1897k vs 1874k expected).

Back to yesterday and in Europe, the main story was the ECB rates decision, which delivered another 25bps cut bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, with 150bps of cuts now delivered since last June. But the cut was accompanied by a few hawkish tweaks. The policy statement noted that the policy stance has become “meaningfully less restrictive”, with President Lagarde no longer emphasizing a lower “direction of travel” on rates and acknowledging that a pause at the next meeting in late April was an option. More generally, uncertainty was the dominant word of the day, with Lagarde stressing a data-dependent meeting-by-meeting policy approach. Later on, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials were preparing for tough talks over whether to cut at the next meeting. Our European economists see another rate cut in April as more likely than not, based on an assumption of a shock from US tariffs on Europe in early April. Notably, even as the ECB’s GDP projections were downgraded yesterday, they have not yet incorporated any US tariffs on Europe. See our economists’ full reaction here.
Rates markets initially took a hawkish read on the ECB’s decision, with overnight index swaps for end-2025 rising by around +7bps by the end of Largarde’s press conference but this move reversed later on, with December OIS pricing down -1.7bps on the day by the close. European government bond curves steepened. 2yr bund yields were largely stable (-0.4bps) but 10yr bund yields (+4.1bps) continued to grind higher after Wednesday’s historic sell-off, reaching their highest level since October 2023. 10yr OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+5.8bps) underperformed, but in the UK 10yr gilts rallied (-2.7bps).

European equities had a mixed session with the Stoxx 600 trading lower for most of the day but largely recovering by the close (-0.03%). In Germany, the DAX (+1.47%) continued Wednesday’s rebound to close at a new all-time high, with the more friendly tariff headlines also helping the Stoxx Automobiles & Parts index rise +2.13% on the day. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.68%) and France CAC (+0.29%) posted more modest gains, while in the UK the FTSE 100 (-0.83%) saw a third consecutive decline.

The other major event in Europe was an EU summit on defence and Ukraine. EU leaders endorsed Commission proposals to temporarily exempt defence spending from fiscal rules, to work on a proposed EUR 150bn fund for defence loans for member states and to explore long-term reform of fiscal rules that had been proposed by Germany.However, Hungary’s Orban blocked a full EU-27 statement on Ukraine and the summit failed to deliver a new military aid package for Ukraine that had been floated earlier. Separately, we saw reports that senior US officials plan to meet Ukrainian counterparts in Saudi Arabia next week, with Bloomberg reporting that Washington wants to link the proposed US-Ukraine minerals deal to demands for Kyiv to commit to a quick ceasefire with Russia.

This morning in Asia equity markets are mirroring Wall Street’s overnight slump. Across the region, the Nikkei (-2.22%) is leading the losses, with the KOSPI (-0.31%) seeing a more modest decline, while the Hang Seng (+0.85%) is bucking the negative trend. Outside of Asia, US equity futures for both the S&P 500 (+0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.45%) are higher overnight. In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.26%) remains on the front foot trading at 147.60, its lowest level since early October against a broadly weaker US dollar and supported by increasing expectations for more BOJ rate hikes.

Early morning data showed China’s export growth slowing more than expected, increasing by just +2.3% y/y (vs +5.9% expected) in the January-February period, marking the slowest growth since April last year. At the same time, imports surprised markets by declining -8.4% y/y in the first two months of 2025 (vs +1.0% expected), the sharpest fall since July 2023.

In other overnight news, cryptocurrencies are lower amid news that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a stockpile of other digital assets established by President Trump’s executive order yesterday evening will be capitalized by forfeited assets already owned by the federal government rather than any new government funding. As I type, Bitcoin is down -1.83%, though it has narrowed its losses after trading -5.7% lower.

Turning to the day ahead, the US payrolls release for February will be the main event on the data side, with Canada also releasing its own jobs report. In Europe, Germany January factory order and France January trade balance data are due. An array of Fed speakers scheduled, including Chair Powell on the economic outlook, as well as speeches by including Bowman, Williams and Kugler.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 08:15

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes: Though they varied in length and severity, the market always recovered and went on to new highs. (Morningstar)

The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World’s Most Popular Vapes: Geekvape, Lost Mary, Elf Bar and other top disposable brands all trace back to one man in Shenzhen.  (Businessweek)

Inside UBS’s Quiet Battle With the DOL to Manage Retirement Money: Trillions were at stake as the Department of Labor, which plays a role in protecting U.S. private pension assets, sifted through the bank’s checkered history before giving UBS the green light. (Institutional Investor)

Why government spending counts in GDP: GDP aims to capture the value of all economic output produced in a given time period within U.S. borders. The formula for that tally, which you may recall from introductory economics, is that GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + net exports. So why is government spending included in that formula? Because otherwise GDP would not fully capture the value of goods and services produced. (Axios)

The Strategic Crypto Swindle: A bitcoin reserve would be a government-backed grift. (The Atlantic)

It’s Xi Jinping’s World, and Trump Is Just Living in It: As Donald Trump blows up the rules-based order, China is pulling ahead in the global battle for ideas. (Bloomberg)

Where Jeff Bezos Went Wrong With The Washington Post: The billionaire handled his ownership admirably for more than a decade. But his courage failed him when he needed it most. (The Atlantic)

Finally, something is puncturing conspiracy theories: Researchers found an AI bot is pretty good at helping people rethink false beliefs. (Washington Post)

• Trump Has Glossed Over High Prices. Republicans Worry It Will Cost Them. President talks more often about federal workers, diversity programs and foreign policy than price of eggs. (Wall Street Journal) see also Trump doesn’t seem to know why he launched a giant trade war: The president’s reasons for imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico keep changing (and none make sense). (Vox)

The Wizard of Vinyl Is in Kansas: Chad Kassem is on a mission — saving listeners “from bad sound” — at the rural factory where he pores over LPs from some of music’s most important artists. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Philipp Carlsson, Global Chief Economist for Boston Consulting Group (BCG ). He is the co-author of “Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk,” named one of the Financial Times Best Books of 2024.

 

The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

New EU Carbon Market Set To Hammer Households And Small Businesses

Zero Hedge -

New EU Carbon Market Set To Hammer Households And Small Businesses

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

The European Union’s new emissions trading system, expected to take effect in 2027, is set to hike prices for home heating and transportation, research firm BloombergNEF says in a new report.

The new EU Emissions Trading System for buildings, road transport, and small industry, dubbed ETS2, is scheduled to become fully operational in 2027.

ETS2 will cover and address the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport, and additional sectors, mainly small industry not covered by the existing Emissions Trading System - EU ETS.

“So far, emission reductions in those sectors have been insufficient to put the EU on a firm path towards its 2050 climate neutrality goal. The carbon price set by the ETS2 will provide a market incentive for investments in building renovations and low-emissions mobility,” the European Commission says.

Although it will be a ‘cap and trade’ system like the existing EU ETS, the ETS2 will cover emissions upstream. 

This means that it will be fuel suppliers, rather than end consumers such as households or car users, that will be required to monitor and report their emissions.

User may not pay directly, but fuel suppliers are likely to pass on the higher costs due to the carbon emissions trading.

Two years after the 2027 launch, the price of CO2 could jump to as much as $161 (149 euros) per metric ton in 2029, according to BloombergNEF’s analysis. This would be more than double the current price of CO2 under the existing EU ETS trading system for emissions from industry and power plants.

The carbon price in EU ETS2 could hike costs for road transportation by 27%, while bills for home heating could spike by as much as 41%, BNEF’s analysis has found.

“Ambitious targets and high costs risk making households and small businesses the losers,” the report reads.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 06:30

Obama Judge Indefinitely Blocks Trump Admin Funding Freeze, Says White House 'Put Itself Above Congress', Undermined Democracy

Zero Hedge -

Obama Judge Indefinitely Blocks Trump Admin Funding Freeze, Says White House 'Put Itself Above Congress', Undermined Democracy

A Rhode Island US District Judge has indefinitely blocked President Trump's freeze on federal grants and loans, arguing in his ruling that the White House had "put itself above Congress" and undermined democracy.

In a Thursday ruling, Judge John McConnell Jr., an Obama appointee - prohibited the Trump administration from freezing or otherwise impeding the disbursement of appropriated federal funds, WSJ reports.

The decision is a victory for Trump critics who say he has trampled on Congress’s authority in his effort to cut federal spending and overhaul agencies.

McConnell’s order follows a similar one issued by a different federal judge in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 25. The judge had previously issued a temporary restraining order, which on Thursday he converted into an injunction, a more permanent form of relief.

"The Executive’s categorical freeze of appropriated and obligated funds fundamentally undermines the distinct constitutional roles of each branch of our government," wrote McConnell.

"Here, the Executive put itself above Congress," he continued. "It imposed a categorical mandate on the spending of congressionally appropriated and obligated funds without regard to Congress’s authority to control spending."

Of note - McConnell was very active in Democratic politics before becoming a judge - serving 14 years as treasurer of the Rhode Island Democratic State Committee, and donating heavily to Democratic political candidates.

Screenshot: opensecrets.org

McConnell's ruling came after 22 Democrat states and the District of Columbia filed a lawsuit which challenged a directive from the White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directing them to pause funding while it assessed whether various government programs complied with executive orders issued by Trump which target foreign aid, DEI, and green energy projects.

While OMB then rescinded that directive, the states say that come Congressionally-approved funds were still being improperly withheld - and that the initial OMB policy rollout sowed confusion among state governments, nonprofits, and lawmakers.

McConnell issued an earlier temporary restraining order (TRO), in which he said that the administration couldn't "pause, freeze, impede, block, cancel, or terminate" its federal financial-assistance obligations to the states.

According to the judge, state governments face "significant disruption in health, education, and other public services" due to the funding freeze, and as such, "the Court finds that the public interest lies in maintaining the status quo and enjoining any categorical funding freeze."

*  *  *

Grow your own food with HEIRLOOM SEEDS (39 varieties - 4,500 seeds) from ZH Store!  Free shipping in the USA.

Click pic... buy seeds... take food supply into your own hands... Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 05:45

As US Summit Looms, Here's The State Of Crypto Taxation Around The World

Zero Hedge -

As US Summit Looms, Here's The State Of Crypto Taxation Around The World

As cryptocurrency continues to gain global traction, tax policies vary widely across different jurisdictions. Some countries impose steep taxes on capital gains from crypto trading, while others exempt digital assets entirely. Meanwhile, several nations have outright banned cryptocurrency transactions.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, illustrates the crypto capital gains tax rates for individual investors as of January 1, 2025, based on data from HelloSafe.

Countries with the Highest Crypto Taxes

Japan applies a progressive tax rate ranging from 15% to 55%, making it one of the highest-taxing nations for cryptocurrency gains.

Similarly, Denmark taxes crypto profits at rates between 37% and 52%, depending on an individual’s income bracket.

Germany, while often considered crypto-friendly, applies a 45% tax rate if assets are sold within a year. However, cryptocurrency held for more than a year is entirely tax-free.

Crypto Tax-Free Havens

Several countries have chosen to exempt cryptocurrency from taxation. These include:

  • Brunei

  • Cyprus

  • El Salvador (which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender)

  • Georgia

  • Germany (if held for more than a year)

  • Hong Kong

  • Malaysia

  • Oman

  • Panama

  • Saudi Arabia

  • Switzerland

  • United Arab Emirates

These jurisdictions either do not recognize cryptocurrency as taxable income or have policies designed to attract crypto investors and businesses.

Countries Where Crypto Is Banned

Despite its global adoption, some nations prohibit cryptocurrency transactions altogether. Often, these restrictions are based on regulatory concerns, financial stability, or religious considerations. For example, Egypt bans cryptocurrency under Islamic law.

Countries with outright crypto bans include:

  • Afghanistan

  • Algeria

  • Bangladesh

  • China

  • Egypt

  • Morocco

  • Nepal

  • Tunisia

If you liked this content, check out Dividing the World’s Gold Equally to see how much each person would get.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 05:45

France Steps Up Its Military Intelligence To Ukraine After US Halt

Zero Hedge -

France Steps Up Its Military Intelligence To Ukraine After US Halt

France is reportedly stepping up its intelligence assistance to Kiev after the Trump-ordered pause in all US intelligence-sharing this week, which was triggered by President Zelensky's resistance to signing a minerals deal, as well as last Friday's row involving the Ukrainian leader.

French defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed efforts to fill the gap, saying, "Our intelligence is sovereign" and that "We have intelligence that we allow Ukraine to benefit from."

Sebastien Lecornu, via France24

Lecornu revealed that French President Emmanuel Macron asked him to "accelerate the various French aid packages" to make up for the halt in American assistance.

As we highlighted earlier, inbound US shipments of military and transport plans had literally turned around midflight as Trump's order came down Monday, per USA Today:

After the order was given, all U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine came to a stop, as of 6 p.m. on Monday evening, according to a defense official. Planes carrying supplies en route to Ukraine would have had to turn around, the official said.

French defense chief Lecornu also in his comments confirmed that shipments of Ukraine-bound aid departing from Poland had been suspended, and offered as an aside that "Ukrainians, unfortunately, have learned to fight this war for three years now and know how to stockpile."

As for intelligence-sharing, it's also expected that other European agencies will step up help in the wake of the American withdrawal.

The US had for years helped Ukraine's military with tracking and targeting Russian troop movements and major targets. However, the Kremlin warned the whole time of its 'red lines' - especially Western assistance to long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

On Wednesday a source speaking with Sky News said that in the beginning US intelligence was still trickling to Kiev on a selective bases, but later confirmed, "A few hours ago, the exchange of all information was stopped."

CIA director John Ratcliffe called the suspension a "pause" - while national security adviser Mike Waltz said Washington had "taken a step back" regarding this close relationship with Kiev. But yesterday in a televised speech Macron took a very hawkish tone, claiming that Putin threatens all of Europe and that France is mulling extending its nuclear umbrella across the European continent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 04:15

Five Ukrainian Fables

Zero Hedge -

Five Ukrainian Fables

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Fable One: Donald Trump Is Appeasing Russia?

Who wiped out the Wagner group in Syria? Who sold offensive weapons to Ukraine first? Who warned Germany not to become dependent on the Russian Nord Stream II deal?

Who withdrew from an unfair missile deal with the Russians? Who cajoled and berated NATO members to meet their military investment promises made following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine?

In contrast, who originally conceived a Russian “reset” in 2009? Who publicly virtue-signaled pushing the red “reset” button in Geneva with the current Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov?

Which ex-European leader got a million euros a year working for Russian energy companies?

Of the last four presidents, under whose watch did Putin not invade another country?

Which American president, in hot-mic style, offered to (and did) dismantle US-Eastern Europe missile defense plans in exchange for temporary Putin quietude (“space”) to aid his 2012 reelection?

Fable Two: A Trade War?

Donald Trump is not wildly slapping tariffs on Europeans.

He is simply saying that 1945 is now 80 years past and that the asymmetrical tariffs that Europe imposes on U.S. imports should be corrected. The massive trade surpluses Europe accumulates each year should give way to fairer, more balanced trade.

If Europe does not want tariffs, then simply calibrate its own tariffs on what America places on European imported goods, and work down jointly to zero tariffs on both sides.

Fable Three: America Is Bullying Europe?

The U.S. does not actively interfere in European elections and politics.

In 2024, Europeans, especially the British Laborites, bragged about sending over campaign “volunteers” to work against Trump and, earlier, his conservative predecessors.

British subject Christopher Steele sought to sabotage an entire American 2016 election with a falsified “dossier.”

The Ukrainian ambassador in 2016 wrote an op-ed all but endorsing Hillary Clinton and trashing her opponent.

In September 2024, Mr. Zelenskyy was flown in on a Biden-provided US military jet to Scranton, Pennsylvania—at a pivotal time in the most pivotal swing state—to surround himself with Democrat politicos.

His media-frenzied presence signaled a partisan campaign theme that a Harris win and the continuance of massive Democrat aid to Ukraine would ensure manufacturing jobs, such as the artillery shell factory he selected to visit.

As to NATO, Trump’s pressure from 2017 to 2021 finally pushed more NATO nations to rearm. But even eleven years after promising to invest a mere 2 percent of GDP in defense, nine of the 32 members still have not complied.

Fable Four: Negotiating With Putin Is Selling Out?

In the long history of Western diplomacy with mass-murdering tyrants, Putin doesn’t even rank among the worst. Just ask his former reset partners Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

FDR fueled mass-murdering “Uncle Joe” Stalin’s Red Army as a way to defeat Nazi Germany.

Richard Nixon flattered and cajoled the greatest mass murderer in history, Mao Zedong, to triangulate China against the Soviet Union.

Ronald Reagan offered to share missile defense expertise with Soviet Russia.

Europeans have hosted almost every Palestinian murderous terrorist leader, as a way either of deflecting terrorism from their own shores or emphasizing their general loathing of Israel.

Fable Five: Europe Is Going To Save Ukraine?

Europe rushed to congratulate and celebrate with Zelensky after his preplanned White House blow-up. They are loudly announcing that a supposedly isolationist and appeasing U.S.—which has sent more aid to Ukraine than all nearby European nations combined—will now be supplanted by a “new” muscular and rearmed Europe.

We sincerely hope so.

But on every recent international moral question—ganging up on a lone Israel to appease terrorist forces in the Middle East, standing up to China’s mercantilism, neo-imperialism, and domestic oppression of minorities, or Russia’s prior 2008 and 2014 invasions—European outrage has been muted, real consequences nonexistent.

We are now witnessing European heads of state sending the same old, same old virtue signaling support for the brave Zelenskyy, who supposedly spoke truth to power to the mean U.S. Orange Man.

But where does such performance art lead after the cult hero Zelenskyy had gnawed the hand that gorged him?

To multitudes of European tanks, skies full of European jets, and division after division of crack European infantry now heading east to “back up” Ukraine—led on horseback by its new Joan of Arc, Ursula von der Leyen?

Aside from all the present posturing and mock-heroics, the only way to save Ukraine is for the U.S. president, Donald Trump, to reflect joint Ukrainian, American, and European interests in stopping the war, forcing Putin as far back eastward as possible where he started in 2022, and creating a credible deterrent along with a DMZ/industrial corridor tripwire to stop another 2008, 2014, and 2022 invasion.

Anything else is empty carnival barking.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 03:30

"$1 Trillion Labyrinth": Canada's Brookfield Investigated By FT For Self-Dealing, Complex Financials

Zero Hedge -

"$1 Trillion Labyrinth": Canada's Brookfield Investigated By FT For Self-Dealing, Complex Financials

Dan McCrum, best known for his investigative journalism that exposed the Wirecard scandal, one of the biggest financial frauds in European history, is starting to ask critical questions of another company. This time it's Canada's Brookfield, an investment manager with nearly $1 trillion in assets.

McCrum's latest longform piece notes that Brookfield has drawn scrutiny for its complex financial practices, including internal transactions that bolster its reported earnings.

He notes that the company sells property to itself, potentially inflating earnings, and has recycled $2.8 billion into its real estate arm, obscuring financial health. Its insurers hold $7.7 billion in affiliated assets, including loans to Brookfield’s businesses and a stake in a music royalty firm—which the report indicates is unusual for an insurer.

Property valuations remain high despite market declines, and American National’s surplus has shrunk from $4 billion to $2.3 billion, raising fears that Brookfield is prioritizing its own stability over policyholders.

Last year, the company used $1.4 billion from its insurance arm to buy and sell properties within its own portfolio, boosting its "distributable earnings"—a key profit metric underpinning its $90 billion valuation, according to Financial Times.

Critics, including Veritas Investment Research’s Dimitry Khmelnitsky, argue Brookfield is using its insurance businesses to offload assets at inflated prices during a challenging market. The company denies wrongdoing, insisting its transactions are transparent and regulators approve its deals.

McCrum's report notes that Brookfield owns an extensive but lossmaking real estate portfolio, including London's Canary Wharf and New York’s One Liberty Plaza.

While it tells investors its real estate empire is in good health, filings from its property unit reveal significant losses, the report says, with $2 billion in red ink last year and some mortgages in default. The company also injected $1.4 billion in equity into its real estate arm—more than the earnings reported from the sector.

Some analysts see this as financial engineering. Independent analyst Keith Dalrymple calls Brookfield’s reporting “very deceptive,” arguing cash inflows are clearly stated while outflows require deep digging. The company rejects these claims, calling them “willfully mischaracterized.”

Further scrutiny comes as former Brookfield chairman Mark Carney runs to replace Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Bill Ackman has heavily bet on Brookfield, seeing insurance as a key growth driver.

Concerns also surround how Brookfield uses its Texas and Iowa life insurers, which hold billions in investments linked to other Brookfield businesses. American National, one of its insurers, has seen its capital shrink from $4 billion to $2.3 billion while its liabilities surged. Critics warn this setup shifts risks onto policyholders.

The report says Brookfield insists its insurance operations are well-capitalized and transparent. However, its opaque structure, spanning thousands of entities controlling $1 trillion in assets, leaves investors questioning whether the company prioritizes stability over clarity, the report alludes. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys defended the company, however, saying: “Given the diversity of earnings streams that [it] unlocks by leveraging internal balance sheet capital as well as client capital, we see this translating into much larger earnings relative to fee-bearing capital, as compared to peers that lack balance sheet resources."

As a journalist for the Financial Times, McCrum spent years uncovering fraudulent activities at Wirecard, a German payments company once valued at over $24 billion.

His reporting then revealed that Wirecard had fabricated profits and engaged in widespread financial misconduct, ultimately leading to the company’s collapse in 2020. His work faced intense pushback, including legal threats and surveillance, but was later vindicated when Wirecard's CEO was arrested.

Read the entire longform Brookfield piece in the Financial Times here

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 02:45

France, Germany, & Poland Are Competing For Leadership Of Post-Conflict Europe

Zero Hedge -

France, Germany, & Poland Are Competing For Leadership Of Post-Conflict Europe

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

French President Macron’s declaration on Wednesday that he’s flirting with extending his country’s nuclear umbrella over other continental allies shows that he’s throwing down the gauntlet to Germany and Poland for leadership of post-conflict Europe. Outgoing German Chancellor Scholz published an hegemonic manifesto in December 2022 that later took the form of what can be described as “Fortress Europe”, which refers to the German-led attempt to lead Europe’s containment of Russia.

This concept requires Poland subordinating itself to Germany, which unfolded over the first half of last year but then slowed as the ruling liberal-globalist coalition started taking a more populist-nationalist approach towards Ukraine ahead of May’s presidential election. Even if this started off insincerely, it’s since assumed a life of its own and created a new dynamic in the latest circumstances brought about by Trump’s return whereby “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner In Europe”.

Poland’s economy is the largest of the EU’s eastern members, it now boasts NATO’s third-largest army, and it’s consistently sought to be the US’ most reliable ally, the last point of which works most in its favor amidst the transatlantic rift. If these trends remain on track, Poland could prevent France or Germany from leading post-conflict Europe by carving out a US-backed sphere of influence in Central Europe, but it would have a shot at leadership in its own right if conservatives or populists come to power.

The sequence of events that would have to unfold begins with either of them winning the presidency, and this either pushing the liberal-globalists more in their direction ahead of fall 2027’s parliamentary elections or early elections being held on whatever pretext and then won by conservatives or populists. Poland’s former conservative government was very imperfect, but their country served as a bastion of EuroRealists (usually described by the Mainstream Media as Euroskeptics) during those eight years.

Should it reassume that role upon the return of conservative rule in parliament, perhaps in a coalition with populists, then this would perfectly align with Trump’s vision and could result in Poland either leading similar domestic political processes across the continent or at least in its own region. Even if only the second-mentioned scenario materializes, it would most effectively prevent liberal-globalist France or Germany from leading Europe as a whole by bifurcating it into ideologically competing halves.

France’s nuclear weapons are the ace up its sleeve though that it might play for keeping some conservative/populist-inclined societies under liberal-globalist sway by extending its umbrella over those countries which fear that Russia will invade but that they’ll then be abandoned by the US. That might help reshape some of their voters’ views if they come to feel dependent on France and thus decide to show fealty to it by keeping their ideologically aligned governments in power instead of change them.

This doesn’t mean that France will succeed, but what was explained above accounts for Macron’s unprecedented proposal in the context of his country’s Great Power ambitions at this historic moment. A lot in this regard will likely depend on the outcome of Romania’s domestic political crisis, which readers can learn more about here, since the liberal-globalist coup against the populist-nationalist frontrunner in May’s election redux could further entrench French influence in this geostrategic frontline state.

Few are aware, but France already has hundreds of troops there, where it leads a NATO battlegroup. It also signed a defense pact with neighboring Moldova in March 2024, which could hypothetically include the deployment of troops to there too. France’s military presence in Southeastern Europe places it in a prime position for conventionally intervening in Ukraine if it so chooses, whether before or after the end of hostilities, and suggests that Macron will focus on this region for expanding French influence.

Should progress be made, then three other scenarios would be possible. 

  • The first is that Poland and France compete in Central Europe, with the first eventually extending its sway over the Baltics while the second does the same over Southeastern Europe (within which Moldova is included in this context due to its close ties with Romania), thus trifurcating Europe between them and Germany. In this scenario, Germany would also have some influence over each Central Europe region, but it wouldn’t predominate.

  • The second scenario is that Poland and France, which have been historical partners since the early 1800s, cooperate in Central Europe by informally dividing the Baltics and Southeastern Europe between them in order to asymmetrically bifurcate Europe into imperfectly German and Polish-Franco halves. The Polish part would either remain under partial US influence if Poland continues aligning with the US even under liberal-globalist rule or the liberal-globalists might pivot towards France and away from the US.

  • The final scenario is that all three employ their Weimar Triangle format to coordinate tripartite rule over Europe, but this is dependent on the liberal-globalists capturing the Polish presidency in May and then aligning with Berlin/Brussels over Washington. It’s therefore the least likely, especially since the liberal-globalists might pivot towards France instead of Germany/EU as a compromise between their ideological, electoral, and geopolitical interests ahead of fall 2027’s parliamentary elections.

Regardless of what ends up transpiring, the “military Schengen” that was pioneered between Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands last year and to which France expressed an intent to join will likely continue incorporating more EU members in order facilitate these three aspiring leaders’ interests. Germany needs this for its “Fortress Europe” plans, Poland needs its allies to swiftly come to its aid in a hypothetical war with Russia, while France needs this to entrench its influence in Southeastern Europe.

What’s ultimately being determined through the interplay of France, Germany, and Poland’s competing leadership plans for post-conflict Europe is the continent’s future security architecture, which will also be influenced to varying degrees by Russia and the US, be it jointly through their “New Détente” and/or independently. There are too many uncertainties at present to confidently predict what this emerging order will look like, but the dynamics described in this analysis account for the most likely scenarios.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/07/2025 - 02:00

As Globalism Breaks, Nations Must Produce Their Own Survival Necessities

Zero Hedge -

As Globalism Breaks, Nations Must Produce Their Own Survival Necessities

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The term “protectionism” is generally treated as a pejorative in the economic world, akin to “isolationism” and “populism”. In an era where globalism is treated as the end-all-be-all of social and geopolitical evolution, the idea of taking a step back and reconsidering the notion of independence and self reliance is abhorrent. Globalists and progressives argue that there can be no going back and that only they know the way forward.

It’s rather convenient that they’ve become the self designated prophets of correct economic policy, is it not?

I don’t know who voted for these financial elites to take on such a role; as far as I can tell no one did. But they certainly have assumed the authority to dictate the path of international trade, currency methodology and even debt creation. Central bankers and their globalist counterparts control every fiscal policy that determines if you or I live a life of plenty or a life of peasantry, and, with the flip of a switch, they can send the whole of the global system crashing down.

The globalists have this power because there are no fail safes – There are no redundancies and there is no Plan B. The more the populace needs the system the more they need the globalists, and the more they need the globalists the more power the globalists enjoy.

The international trade network is designed like an intricate Jenga tower with a foundation of just a few wooden pieces holding up a vast and seemingly infinite cathedral. However, pull just one of those base pieces and the entire edifice collapses. Globalism relies on forced interdependency between nations, so that every country needs something from every other country in order to survive. No single nation is allowed to rely on its own resources and production – As noted, that’s what they call “protectionism”. It’s the great taboo; a violation of the will of the tiny globalist gods.

But what happens when the globalists create international division and sow seeds of instability? What happens when they create multiple wars?  Or when people get fed up with the imbalances, leading to sanctions and tariffs and trade disputes?

Today, there are at least three regions of the world in which World War III could spark off, including Ukraine, Iran/Israel and Taiwan. Sanctions between NATO countries and Russia have greatly affected Europe’s energy security and the EU has been sabotaging itself with climate change regulations that are destroying their ability to build more power plants and produce more food.

The BRICS nations are actively pursuing a new currency exchange system to cut out the US dollar as the world reserve and they are supported by global banking institutions like the BIS and IMF which are getting ready to introduce CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) as the new framework for banking exchange.

In the meantime, Donald Trump is engaging in wider tariffs, which could bring the US economy back from the brink of debt disaster, but only if he is able to somehow accelerate domestic production at the same time. If he is unsuccessful, the US consumer will be left with mostly foreign-made goods and all those goods will be more expensive.

The globalists have created a scenario in which globalism is an exponential detriment. I believe that their original plan was to create enough chaos to force nations into even deeper centralization (a one world currency system, cashless society, wealth redistribution, rationing and Universal Basic Income). But what if some countries go in a different direction? What happens when nations stop participating in the dependency game and walk away?

Well, you get a worldwide economic crisis, but also a great rush by nation states to juice their domestic production. You get a rush to localism. If countries hope to survive what is coming, they’re going to have to start manufacturing their own survival goods. Otherwise, they will face civil unrest and internal collapse.

Such a crisis environment comes with a host of problems, primarily in the supply chain. Shifting away from globalism after so many decades of addiction will be a difficult process. In the case of the US, a large number of non-necessities are made overseas rather than produced domestically, but there are quite a few essentials as well.

The US is lucky enough to have considerable natural resources including untapped mineral wealth and oil (America has more untapped oil than any other country on the planet). The problem is that we don’t utilize them, at least not in an efficient way. The concern, of course, is environmental decay if America ever tapped into these resources on a large scale.

The EPA and far-left environmental doomers tend to exaggerate the risks of resource development. The technology to prevent pollution is well in hand, though it’s true that prices rise the more companies have to spend on preventing contamination.

It’s also true that most Americans regardless of politics don’t want to live in a country that’s production wealthy if that means it is also health poor. In other words, when America does shift into a domestic production model, it will have to do so with much greater expense than developing nations like China that don’t care about their own environment.

A much bigger concern, though, is the safety of national energy supplies and food supplies. As noted, Europe is screwed. The EU is actively trying to sabotage any remaining structures of independent energy and food production and the British government is following their lead with a crushing inheritance tax on farmland and an obsession with inefficient green energy projects.

It’s not that these officials have forgotten where their food comes from, they know full well. They WANT to destroy domestic production. They want the western world to be crippled by food dependency.

In the US agriculture is strong but the on-time freight system is not and using food factories as middlemen instead of local farm goods going directly to markets creates a barrier for localization.  Factory farming allows major conglomerates to haggle supermarkets into accepting lower price brackets which small farms can’t compete with. Lower prices are nice, however, this model makes every community food dependent.

Changing the current system of food distribution could take years, with corrupt politicians and corporations fighting reforms every step of the way. But, smaller communities can and should look into programs for local food growing and security. If neighborhood markets sourced half of their produce and meat from nearby small farms this could help to protect towns from a supply chain crisis.  Governments could incentivize small farms to sell their goods direct to the public (at a lower price) by giving tax credits for any farms with a store on their land.

What concerns me most is that far too many countries and communities will do nothing about domestic production until they are hit hard with a supply crunch. In America there is a very large contingent of preppers (at least 30% of the adult population according to surveys), and this could help to avoid a complete collapse. That said, a sudden national leap into “protectionism” and away from globalism might require years of adaptation.

This should be an expected development. Just look at how hostile our “allies” have been to the notion of dealing with tariffs while using the US consumer as a cash cow for decades? It’s been a one-way street for so long and they have no concept of fair play in the markets. A lot of these countries are talking about “hurting” the US however they can as reciprocal tariffs are introduced. America must be ready to provide its own necessities on demand to prevent damage from retaliation.

On the individual level, this means people need to have a solid supply of necessities including stored foods just to give themselves time for domestic production to adjust.  While this is happening, expect shortages and high prices on a number of goods. The whole point of globalism is to punish nations for acting independently; US effort to become more self reliant will not happen without some pain.

Position yourself as a producer if you can, or a person that can repair existing goods. For the majority of westerners used to ultra-convenient supply chains and same-day delivery, this idea might sound ridiculous. Don’t get caught up in the normalcy bias. Our economic situation can change at the drop of a hat; be sure you have a backup plan.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/06/2025 - 23:25

Why Israel Wants Syria To Become A Failed State

Zero Hedge -

Why Israel Wants Syria To Become A Failed State

Authored by Ali Bakir via Middle East Eye

At a recent military ceremony in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a provocative statement about the new Syrian government, outlining his nation’s strategy since the fall of the Assad government. His speech emphasized three key points.

Firstly, Netanyahu said Israel would not permit the new Syrian government to deploy forces south of Damascus, calling for the "full demilitarization" of that area - specifically Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida provinces. 

Secondly, Netanyahu positioned Israel as a protector of the minority Druze community, aligning with Defense Minister Israel Katz’s recent statements about strengthening ties with “friendly populations” in southern Syria. 

Thirdly, Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s commitment to occupying Syrian lands, asserting that Israeli forces would remain “indefinitely” in the buffer zone and Mount Hermon area. 

Destroyed Syrian helicopters after Israeli strikes, in the wake of Assad's Dec.8 ouster, via AFP.

This stance reinforces Israel’s ongoing agenda of territorial expansion and occupation, particularly in the Golan Heights. Netanyahu’s overarching goal appears to be the systematic weakening and fragmentation of Syria, ensuring it remains under Israeli occupation, devoid of a central government, and mired in sectarian conflict. 

This environment of “controlled chaos” would prevent Syria’s recovery after more than a decade of war, turn it into a failed state, and empower Israel under the pretext of minimizing any potential threats from the new Syria.

Fragmenting Syria

This approach is not new. It has been a consistent element of Israeli policy since the state’s establishment, applied in various contexts and regions, including Lebanon

Demilitarizing the area south of Damascus would hinder the Syrian government’s authority, potentially leading to a weakened state presence. This could enable the formation of Israeli-backed local militias pushing for a “state within a state”

Israel’s strategy also aims to encourage other minority groups in northern Syria to challenge the Syrian government, thus fragmenting the country, even if only in a de-facto manner.

The explicit mention of the Druze community reflects Israel’s “alliance of minorities” doctrine, which seeks to forge alliances with minority groups in the region against the Sunni majority. This divide-and-rule policy fosters animosity, suspicion and sectarianism, using minorities as leverage to provoke violent responses from the majority. 

Israel has previously employed this strategy in Lebanon, collaborating with the Christian and Shia communities. It is now attempting to do the same with Syria’s Druze, Kurds and Alawites. But this approach is destructive and counterproductive, ultimately harming both the minorities involved and those who seek to manipulate them.

Netanyahu’s demand for the demilitarization of southern Syria, coupled with Israel’s surge of air strikes on Syrian military positions, has not elicited a response from western countries or the broader international community. This lack of reaction is interpreted by Netanyahu as a green light to continue such policies.

From the new Syrian government, Israel’s provocative and aggressive actions have spurred a multifaceted response. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa [aka Jolani] has balanced restraint with defiance, an approach shaped by several critical factors, including Syria’s weakened military, economic and political position; his need to maintain legitimacy as a leader, while extending state control to all Syrian territories; and the process of rebuilding the nation.

Symbolic resistance

The Syrian National Dialogue conference’s statement late last month rejected any territorial concessions, signaling to both Israel and Sharaa’s domestic audience that he would not bow to Netanyahu’s demand for demilitarization. The statement demanded Israel’s “immediate and unconditional withdrawal” from Syria - a symbolic act of resistance that reinforced Sharaa’s authority without risking an immediate confrontation.

On February 26, Sharaa visited Jordan and met King Abdullah II, who reiterated Amman’s support for Syria’s sovereignty and condemned Israel’s incursions. Sharaa’s third foreign trip since taking power, the visit points to an effort to build a regional coalition to counter Israel’s moves diplomatically, rather than militarily, especially as Jordan shares Syria’s concerns about border stability.

Sharaa’s restrained response also navigates domestic pressures. Protests in Quneitra, Daraa and Sweida against Netanyahu’s recent statement reflect public anger, but Sharaa has not mobilised these sentiments into action against Israel, as previous attempts by regional regimes have not ended well. 

Sharaa has instead responded to Israel’s provocations with a mix of verbal condemnation, appeals for peace, and diplomatic manoeuvring, avoiding escalation while asserting Syria’s right to its territory. His previous vow to abide by the 1974 ceasefire deal encapsulates this approach.

But while this may grant Sharaa regional and international support, it could erode his internal legitimacy in the medium and long terms - and it is highly unlikely that it will be enough to deter Israel. Historically, Israel has interpreted calls for peace as a sign of weakness; an opportunity to aggressively pursue its expansive territorial ambitions. 

Collective action

Given the complex situation in Syria, the response to Israel’s actions should be collective. The international community must uphold its responsibilities, and Arab nations should act together, as they stand to lose significantly if Israel succeeds in turning Syria into a failed state. 

The Arab League, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, among others, have strongly condemned Israel. Most importantly, Turkey, a regional power with substantial stakes in Syria, has much to gain from a stable Damascus, and much to lose from Israeli aggression against Syria. 

Since December, Turkey has responded to Netanyahu’s statements and Israel’s aggression with sharp condemnation. Emphasizing Syrian sovereignty, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has accused Israel of expansionism and undermining peace and stability “under the guise of security”.

Still, Ankara’s actions remain diplomatic and restrained, focusing on the Kurdish issue in northern Syria rather than confronting Israel directly. Turkey’s policy in this regard appears to be constrained by two key factors. One is the fate of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Ankara considers a terrorist group. The second is Turkey’s anticipated deal with US President Donald Trump to end American cooperation with the YPG.

Ankara is unlikely to engage significantly against Israel until these two issues are resolved, as an early confrontation could backfire with Trump and the hawkish pro-Israel officials in Washington. At the same time, avoiding confrontation with Israel could not only embolden Netanyahu, but also undermine Ankara’s credibility and transform Syria from an opportunity into a serious challenge for Turkey.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/06/2025 - 22:35

Empty Gestures - How Performative Activism Enabled Mass Persecution

Zero Hedge -

Empty Gestures - How Performative Activism Enabled Mass Persecution

Authored by Josh Stylamn via substack,

Reality engineering requires three components

  • institutional power to create the narrative, 

  • social pressure to enforce it, 

  • and the deliberate persecution of anyone who challenges either. 

The COVID era provided the perfect case study in how this machinery operates - and revealed how performative activism serves as its most potent enforcement mechanism.

Every major element of the official COVID narrative has been proven false: The origins of the virus, the validity of PCR tests, the suppression of early treatments, the denial of natural immunity, the so-called "safety and effectiveness" of vaccines, and the utility of masks, lockdowns, and vaccine passports. Yet those who questioned any part of it faced unprecedented ostracism and persecution.

The manufactured panic ignored fundamental reality: COVID posed minimal risk to healthy people under 70, but was significantly more dangerous to the elderly and immunocompromised. Rather than focusing resources on protecting vulnerable populations, we destroyed economies, stole childhoods, and enforced measures that made no epidemiological sense. This wasn’t just about control - it was an engineered economic coup, the largest financial consolidation of power in modern history. While small businesses were forcibly closed, Amazon's profits soared. As working-class neighborhoods struggled, Wall Street celebrated record gains. The laptop class posted about 'we're all in this together' from their home offices while essential workers were forced into what was portrayed as dangerous conditions to deliver their groceries. The same corporations trumpeting their commitment to "equity" through DEI initiatives were destroying economic mobility for the very communities they claimed to champion.

Just months before COVID, The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. An examination of the event reveals that the priority of the exercise centered not on treatment protocols or protecting the vulnerable but rather on how information control could be used to manufacture mass compliance.

When the real crisis arrived, this strategy found willing accomplices in a culture already primed for performative virtue. The height of this hypocrisy revealed itself during the pandemic, exposing not just empty virtue signaling, but active participation in one of the most egregious civil rights violations in recent American history. As millions changed their profile pictures and posted solidarity symbols for social justice, these same voices fell silent - or worse, actively participated in the persecution of two distinct groups: the unvaccinated and the vaccine-injured.

The Profitable Performance of Power

The economic devastation fell hardest on those least able to bear it. While professionals attended Zoom meetings in their pajamas, service workers faced an impossible choice: show up to what was marketed as a deadly environment or lose their livelihoods. The data tells the story:

The financial beneficiaries were clear:

During the lockdown, ostensibly put in place to “protect the vulnerable”, vulnerable small businesses lost $4.6 trillion in value, with minority-owned enterprises accounting for 41% of closures despite representing only 20% of total businesses. This wasn’t just hypocrisy - it was a calculated consolidation of power under the guise of public health.

The corporate duplicity was particularly stark during the same period when America was reckoning with racial justice following George Floyd's murder. Nike proclaimed "standing against racism" while terminating minority employees who would not comply with unscientific COVID shot mandates. BlackRock published reports on "workplace equity" while creating a segregated office system. Google celebrated "inclusion" while their mandate policies disproportionately excluded minority workers who had historical reasons to distrust medical authorities.

These same corporations posting solidarity symbols were forcing their lowest-paid workers to choose between experimental injections or feeding their families. Their DEI committees issued statements about "inclusion" while they excluded anyone who questioned the narrative. They celebrated "diversity" in carefully curated public messaging while their mandates disproportionately impacted minority communities - the very people their DEI initiatives were ostensibly designed to protect.

This hypocrisy was essentially economic warfare masked by virtuous platitudes. The professional class's performative empathy enabled the greatest upward transfer of wealth and opportunity in modern history. Their social media activism provided cover for policies that devastated the working class, particularly in minority communities. While they changed their profile pictures to signal virtue, they changed the economic landscape to enforce dependence.

The hypocrisy reached its peak during the Roe v. Wade controversy. The same voices passionately defending bodily autonomy in reproductive rights enthusiastically supported government-mandated medical procedures – often in the same social media feeds.

I saw this contradiction clearly one day and shared a meme that captured it perfectly: A woman holding a "My Body, My Choice" sign while wearing a "Vaccine Mandate Now!" t-shirt. The irony was obvious - or so I thought. But instead of engaging with the point, a friend of 20 years replied:

"The right to an abortion is at stake and unlike vaccine mandates which remain a choice (granted with heavy weight regarding employment for those who choose against)... Equating the two issues works to piss off women for sure but I don't think does much to further your cause."

Her response characterized vaccine mandates as merely a "choice with heavy weight" while referring to them as "my cause" - as if bodily autonomy were a partisan position rather than a universal principle. Most telling was what happened afterward: when I shared trial data and peer-reviewed studies about fertility concerns, there was no reply. The conversation simply ended. This pattern repeated itself across countless relationships - the desire to maintain a manufactured reality proved stronger than decades of friendship or even scientific evidence that might protect loved ones.

A simple observation - one that should have been common sense - was treated as ideological betrayal, even with a good friend. That was the moment I realized how deeply people had internalized the manufactured reality, where pointing out contradictions was itself a crime.

While professionals virtue signaled from home offices, essential workers faced impossible choices. Those who built careers championing marginalized communities suddenly celebrated stripping basic rights from their neighbors. It was deeply enlightening to observe those who said they were passionate about fighting discrimination celebrating people losing their jobs for making personal medical choices. Their empathy extended exactly as far as their pharmaceutical stock portfolios and/or unwavering faith in government authority - marching against discrimination until it became inconvenient for their tribal interests, rallying against medical coercion until they could enforce it themselves.

The Manufacturing of Hatred

The demonization of the non-compliant was systematic and crossed into territory that would be considered hate speech if directed at any other group. Major media outlets competed to express the most vitriolic condemnation of the unvaccinated. The New York Times ran headlines like "I'm Furious at the Unvaccinated, while The Washington Post declared that "remaining unvaccinated in public should be considered as bad as drunk driving."

This wasn't just media rhetoric - it directly programmed public perception and normalized extreme views. A January 2022 Rasmussen poll revealed that nearly half of Democratic voters supported not just fining the unvaccinated, but confining them to their homes, sending them to quarantine camps, and even taking their children. Public health officials cultivated and then amplified this hostility, speaking of a "pandemic of the unvaccinated," creating a narrative of blame that would be used to justify discrimination at a scale unprecedented in modern America.

The rhetoric from entertainment figures was particularly revealing. Gene Simmons declared "You're willing to walk among us unvaccinated, you are the enemy." Sean Penn took this mandate mentality further, stating "It seems criminal to me... if someone chooses not to get vaccinated that they should choose to stay home, not go to work, not have a job... As long as we're all paying for these streets, we got to ride safely on them." His framing perfectly captured the entitled perspective of the wealthy class - comparing basic employment rights to a privilege that could be revoked for non-compliance. Don Lemon advocated for complete social exclusion: "Don't have the vaccine, can't go to the supermarket... Can't go to the ballgame... Can't go to work... No shirt, no shoes, no service!" Piers Morgan celebrated discrimination: "Love the idea of COVID vaccine passports for everywhere: flights, clubs, gyms, shops. It's time COVID denying, anti-vaxxer loonies had their bullshit bluff called."

The dehumanization reached new heights as Jimmy Kimmel mocked the unvaccinated seeking medical care: "Vaccinated person, come right in. Unvaccinated person who gobbled horse goo... Rest in peace, wheezy." Howard Stern demanded mandatory vaccination while cursing freedom itself: "When are we gonna stop putting up with idiots in this country and just say it's mandatory to get vaccinated? Fuck 'em, fuck their freedom." Even Arnold Schwarzenegger, who once championed individual rights, declared "Screw your freedom!"

These weren't fringe voices - they were mainstream entertainers with millions of followers, demonstrating how quickly "progressive" entertainment could normalize discrimination and celebrate the stripping of basic human rights. Their audiences, who typically pride themselves on defending the marginalized, cheered calls for persecution when it aligned with their tribal identity and boosted their social capital.

​​The absurdity was obvious to anyone who dared think critically. The architects of this deception are now openly admitting what critics said all along. Janine Small testified before the European Parliament, "No, we did not know whether the vaccine stopped transmission before we rolled it out," justifying this by saying they had to "move at the speed of science."

These admissions are accelerating. CDC Director Walensky now acknowledges they were "too late" to recognize natural immunity. FDA officials admit myocarditis risks were known earlier than disclosed. Each revelation confirms not just what critics warned about, but what the data had shown from the beginning.

Most telling of all, Dr. Deborah Birx, former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator who was one of the chief architects of America's COVID policies, finally admitted last week: "What we got wrong in public health is we didn't explain that COVID vaccines were nothing like childhood vaccines... That is not what the COVID vaccine was designed to do. It wasn't designed against infection."

Yet these admissions come only after the damage is done - after lives were upended, careers destroyed, and basic rights stripped from those who simply pointed to evidence that contradicted the official narrative.

For almost five years, anyone pointing out the data and facts now being casually revealed by public health officials faced social and professional exile. The entire justification for mandates, passports, and mass firings was based on claims that public officials and the compliant public never bothered to verify or actively suppressed before coercing millions into compliance.

If the vaccines indeed protected the vaccinated, why did anyone else's medical choices matter? The answer reveals the deeper agenda: This was never about health - it was about enforcing social coercion. As Matt Orfalea brilliantly documented in one of his viral video compilations, media talking heads robotically chanted "no one's safe unless everyone's safe," while a civilized society descended into tribal psychosis.

This mass psychosis wasn't accidental - it was the product of sophisticated reality engineering. The same systems that manufactured consent for endless wars were now deployed to enforce medical and social compliance. But this time, they had new tools: social media algorithms, AI content moderation, and real-time narrative control. And at every level, the deception was coordinated from the top down:

  • Dr. Fauci: "When people are vaccinated they're not going to get infected"

  • President Biden: "You're not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations"

  • CDC Director Walensky: "Vaccinated people do not carry the virus and don't get sick"

  • Rachel Maddow: "Now we know the vaccines work well enough that the virus stops"

  • Pfizer CEO Bourla: "There is no variant that escapes the protection of our vaccines"

  • Bill Gates: "Everyone who takes the vaccine is not just protecting themselves but reducing their transmission”

Today's fact-checkers will claim these statements were "taken out of context" but the truth is simpler: These weren't mistakes or misunderstandings - they were deliberate deceptions designed to drive compliance. Even as internal data contradicted these absolute claims, the messaging remained unwavering.

The Manufacturing of Data

The deception went beyond mere rhetoric. Professor Norman Fenton's 2021 statistical analysis revealed how trial data was manipulated through deceptive classification of deaths - warnings that were systematically ignored by those who now admit to "mistakes" in coverage. Fenton, along with Professor Martin Neil, has continued this analysis, uncovering progressively more damning evidence of statistical manipulation. Their papers have documented how health authorities systematically misclassified deaths, manipulated test timing, and obscured key data points to maintain the "safe and effective" narrative.

Whistleblower Brook Jackson, a regional director at Ventavia Research Group, exposed fundamental violations of data integrity protocols at Pfizer trial sites, including falsified data, improper unblinding of participants, and deliberate suppression of adverse event reporting. Her revelations, which should have immediately halted the trials, were ignored by both the FDA and major media outlets.

A forensic analysis of Pfizer's trial data reveals troubling manipulation. A September 2023 preprint paper titled "Forensic Analysis of the 38 Subject Deaths in the 6-Month Interim Report of the Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA Vaccine Clinical Trial" documented a subject who was originally in the placebo group but received a Moderna shot on December 23, 2020. This subject was subsequently hospitalized with COVID on December 31, died on January 11, 2021, and was still classified as an 'unvaccinated death' despite having received an mRNA vaccine. This deliberate misclassification skewed mortality data in favor of vaccination. Without this manipulation, the data would have shown the vaccinated were 31% more likely to die.

This wasn't an isolated incident. According to Pfizer’s Post-Marketing Experience Report, released under FOIA, 42,086 case reports of adverse effects were submitted in just the first 90 days after release, including 1,223 deaths. Despite these alarming signals - which should have prompted immediate review - the public was repeatedly assured of the product's safety, while those raising concerns were systematically silenced. 'Safe and effective' may very well be the most consequential lie of our lifetime.

In fact, the FDA attempted to hide the trial data for 75 years - a stunning admission of what they hoped to conceal. Only through attorney Aaron Siri's relentless FOIA litigation was the public able to access these documents at all. When finally forced to release it, the documents revealed nine pages of previously hidden side effects. Authors like Ed Dowd and Naomi Wolf have meticulously documented these deceptions.

The manipulation continued at every level. Cities like Chicago employed "dastardly definitions" to obscure real data during the Delta wave. But the truth would eventually emerge through institutions too prestigious to ignore. A groundbreaking Cleveland Clinic study of 51,000 employees found the more shots people received, the more likely they were to get COVID-19. In the authors' own surprised words: "The multivariable analyses found that... the greater the number of vaccine doses previously received, the higher the risk of COVID-19."

Beyond ineffectiveness, safety concerns mounted. A February 2023 peer-reviewed study in the European Heart Journal evaluated 8.9 million young adults from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, finding that "booster dose is associated with increased myocarditis risk in adolescents and young adults." Among males, a third dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine was associated with an "increased incidence rate of myocarditis" within 28 days of inoculation. Studies from Thailand and Switzerland showed similar cardiovascular effects. In a sane and just world, these products wouldn't have been approved in the first place - let alone mandated or defended at all costs.

This data directly contradicted every justification used to persecute the unvaccinated. UK Health Security Agency surveillance reports from early 2022 confirmed these findings, showing higher infection rates per 100,000 in many age groups among the triple-vaccinated compared to the unvaccinated. In the years since, dozens of peer-reviewed studies from institutions worldwide have consistently validated these observations, forming an overwhelming body of evidence that the original claims about preventing transmission were false. Yet by then, careers had been destroyed, families divided, and lives upended based on a lie. But data manipulation was only one component of a much larger system designed to protect the narrative at all costs.

The Architecture of Control

Social media transformed this engineered reality into an automated system. Platform "adjustments" reduced engagement on vaccine-questioning posts by 95%. Shadow-banning isolated critics while amplifying approved narratives, creating an artificial consensus. AI content moderation ensured only pharmaceutical-friendly perspectives reached wide audiences.

The financial entanglement between media and pharma completed the cycle of influence:

This wasn't just bias - it was a carefully structured ecosystem of self-interest. The same system that enriched Halliburton through endless wars now enriched Pfizer through endless boosters. The military-industrial complex had found its medical counterpart. The companies selling vaccines controlled the channels reporting on their safety, creating a perfect closed loop of propaganda: from corporate press release to news headline to social media share to fact-checker verification to public policy.

The selective amplification of narratives isn’t an accident - it’s an integral part of reality engineering. Consider this: just last week, West Texas has 58 measles cases, some in the vaccinated, and it makes national headlines. Meanwhile, VAERS reports 2,659,050 adverse reactions to the COVID vaccines (including 38,398 deaths) and it’s ignored. The media treats one as a crisis and the other as a conspiracy theory.

While VAERS is designed as an early warning system rather than a definitive assessment tool, the stark contrast in how these safety signals were treated compared to other vaccines reveals a troubling double standard in safety monitoring. And that's before we account for the fact that VAERS is notoriously underreported.

This coordinated messaging wasn't coincidental. A well-documented revolving door between regulators and pharmaceutical companies solidified their dominance over public health narratives.

  • Mark McClellan: From FDA commissioner regulating Johnson & Johnson to Board member

  • Scott Gottlieb: From FDA commissioner regulating Pfizer to Board member

  • Stephen Hahn: From FDA commissioner regulating Moderna to CMO of their venture capital backer

  • James C. Smith: From Reuters CEO 'informing' about vaccines to Pfizer Board member

This circular system extended to news coverage itself. Would the public have maintained faith in the "official narrative" if they understood that the "impartial" journalists delivering it had their salaries substantially funded by pharmaceutical advertising? Pfizer alone spent $2.4 billion on TV advertising in 2021. Every "breaking news" segment about the pandemic was effectively "brought to you by Pfizer" - the same company profiting from the promoted solutions. This wasn't mere bias; it was a fundamental conflict of interest that transformed news programs into pharmaceutical marketing channels with a veneer of journalistic credibility.

The legal framework itself exposed the deception. These weren't medical products subject to normal safety protocols - they were military countermeasures, allowing manufacturers to bypass regulations while enjoying complete liability protection. On February 4, 2020, with fewer than a dozen confirmed COVID cases and zero deaths, the Department of Defense declared it a "national security threat" and activated emergency powers designed for weapons of mass destruction. Science took a back seat to military protocols, with unprecedented emergency declarations occurring in lockstep across countries.

Even the language itself was manipulated to accommodate these novel products. The CDC quietly changed the definition of "vaccination" multiple times: from "the act of introducing a vaccine into the body to produce immunity to a specific disease" to simply "producing protection" - a subtle but critical shift that lowered the bar from actual immunity to mere "protection." This wasn't semantic nitpicking - it was a deliberate reframing to retrofit the definition around products that couldn't meet the traditional standard. By changing the very meaning of "vaccine," they could claim these gene therapy products belonged in the same category as traditional vaccines, despite their fundamentally different mechanisms and outcomes.

The implementation of this control architecture wasn't improvised - it followed a detailed playbook established before the crisis. Event 201's recommendations went far beyond theoretical discussions about "misinformation." The simulation explicitly outlined tactics that would later be deployed:

  • "Flooding the zone" with approved messaging to overwhelm contrary information

  • Using "trusted voices" (celebrities and influencers) to shape public opinion

  • Developing surveillance tools to identify dissent before it could spread

  • Creating pre-bunking strategies to discredit anticipated criticism

  • Establishing mechanisms to suppress personal testimonials that contradicted official narratives

Most disturbing was how precisely these tactics were deployed against the vaccine-injured. Just as the simulation had rehearsed, those reporting adverse effects were systematically labeled as spreaders of "misinformation" - precisely as the blueprint had prescribed.

The synchronized global response demonstrated unprecedented coordination across political and geographical boundaries. World leaders simultaneously adopted identical phrases like "Build Back Better," while implementing remarkably similar policies, regardless of their political orientation or their countries' specific circumstances. This perfect alignment of messaging and policy represents a level of international coordination never before witnessed - suggesting either an extraordinary coincidence or deliberate orchestration beyond national interests. How does a democratically-established public health policy manifest identically across dozens of culturally and politically diverse nations? The answer lies in pre-crisis planning through non-governmental organizations and unelected global institutions.

This wasn't an accident. It was a deliberate construction. Reality itself became a manufactured product, shaped and reinforced through social media algorithms, legacy media narratives, and censorship infrastructure. It was no longer about individual facts—it was about the entire context in which those facts existed.

The terrifying part is that once you're locked into one of these timelines, breaking out feels impossible. Not because people are incapable of critical thinking, but because they are only given the pieces of the puzzle that fit their pre-constructed reality. If your entire media environment tells you vaccine passports were necessary to save lives, then anyone who opposes them must be selfish or dangerous. If your reality tells you vaccine injuries are a rare anomaly, then the people raising concerns must be crackpot lunatics. Once the stage has been set, people don't need to be actively deceived—they simply need to never see the information that contradicts their version of reality.

And the scariest part? This isn't just about COVID. This is now the model for shaping public perception on every issue. We don't just live in an era of misinformation. We live in an era where entire realities are constructed and assigned to us, and stepping outside of them comes at a personal and social cost. It's not just that people were manipulated. It's that they were placed inside an entirely different timeline - one where dissent itself is unthinkable.

The Experiment Without Consent

Perhaps most chilling is the complete absence of informed consent. The crisis revealed how quickly we abandoned our most sacred protections. The First Amendment wasn't just challenged - it was systematically dismantled. Free speech, designed to protect the flow of information and allow people to hear all sides, was replaced with coordinated censorship. The same voices who once defended "speaking truth to power" now demanded power to silence dissent.

These actions violated not just ethics, but the foundational principles established after World War II to prevent exactly this kind of coercion. The very protections created to prevent medical experimentation without consent were themselves abused.

The public was never told they were participating in what amounts to the largest medical experiment in human history. The formulation that received FDA approval was never actually administered - a bait-and-switch that would be criminal in any other context. We still lack proper testing data, with the general population serving as unwitting test subjects.

The absence of informed consent was particularly egregious for pregnant women and those of childbearing age. Pfizer's own December 2020 documents, published by the UK government, recommended against administering these shots to pregnant and breastfeeding women. Their trial informed consent documents explicitly stated:

Source: Pfizer Trial Documents, Page 12

Yet public health officials aggressively promoted these products to pregnant women and young girls without disclosing these warnings.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) rapidly reversed decades of cautious protocol by recommending these products for pregnant women in July 2021, despite the absence of completed clinical trials in this population. This unprecedented departure from established safety procedures placed an entire generation of mothers and their unborn children in an uncontrolled experiment.

Those who raised concerns about giving experimental drugs to expecting mothers were branded as dangerous misinformation spreaders. Most shocking of all, the "studies" used to justify safety in pregnancy weren't conducted on pregnant women at all - they were only done on mice. The medical establishment that once adhered to the precautionary principle of "first, do no harm" now embraced an unprecedented experiment on the reproductive health of an entire generation.

VAERS reports of miscarriages and stillbirths increased by 450% in 2022 compared to the previous decade's baseline. While similar vaccines showed no such signal, authorities dismissed these reports without investigation. The same voices that popularized "believe women" suddenly found endless reasons to doubt women's experiences when they contradicted pharmaceutical interests - just as my friend had dismissed the contradiction between forced medical procedures and bodily autonomy.

While the CDC and public health officials kept assuring the public that the mRNA stayed isolated to the injection site, Moderna's pitch to Wall Street told a very different story. In a presentation to investors (later removed from their website but archived via the Wayback Machine), Moderna openly boasted about their technology's ability to deliver mRNA to bone marrow, leading to "HSPC transfection and long-term modulation of all hematopoietic lineages." Their slides proudly displayed how different LNP (lipid nanoparticle) formulations and repeat dosing could "enhance transfection" across various systems, including bone marrow and human HSPCs (hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells) in "humanized-mouse model systems."

And BioNTech's SEC filings were equally revealing. The company warned investors about "irreversibly changing the DNA in a cell" and the need for "additional testing for long-term side effects."

As Bayer's pharmaceutical director Stefan Oelrich would later admit, these were indeed gene therapy products - exactly what the public was condemned for suggesting.

The semantic debate over terminology served primarily to obscure the novel mechanism of action from the public.

The duplicity is breathtaking. One narrative for the public, another for investors. One story about safety for mass consumption, another about risks and biological impact for those funding the operation. The public was not only denied informed consent – they were actively misinformed about the nature of what was being injected into their bodies.

The Human Cost

I witnessed these stories firsthand while working with filmmaker Jennifer Sharp on her groundbreaking documentary "Anecdotals." The film provided a nuanced, human lens into the experiences of the vaccine-injured - individuals who trusted the system and paid a devastating price. These weren't distant statistics or "rare cases" easily dismissed by pharmaceutical companies; they were real people whose lives were upended, first by injury and then by a system that refused to acknowledge their existence.

The film's power lies in giving voice to those who have been systematically silenced. Despite attempts to discredit their experiences as "just anecdotes," these stories reveal a pattern that can no longer be ignored.

Recently, even prestigious mainstream institutions have been forced to acknowledge the reality of persistent vaccine injuries. Multiple research initiatives, including a Yale University study, have begun documenting what was previously dismissed: spike protein persistence long after vaccination, chronic inflammation, immune system disruption, and reactivation of dormant viruses.

Yet even as evidence mounts, the truth is often packaged and monetized by the very institutions that denied it initially. Research validating vaccine injuries becomes a commodity, with suffering participants treated as data points rather than patients needing care. Some participants have even withdrawn from these studies, alleging that researchers seem more interested in managing the narrative than addressing their medical needs.

For people like Lyndsey, a registered nurse and whistleblower who has documented continuous spike protein production for over 1,500 days since her December 2020 vaccination, these academic acknowledgments come too late and offer too little. Her lab results consistently show immune system dysfunction and inflammatory markers that align with emerging research findings, yet comprehensive treatment remains elusive.

These aren't just statistics or distant characters - they're our neighbors, friends, and family members who trusted the system and paid an unthinkable price. They don't need virtual sympathy or performative gestures. They need medical research into treatments. They need financial support for care. Most importantly, they need us to ensure this never happens again.

Yet instead of support, those who spoke out faced persecution. The machinery that silenced the injured also targeted anyone who questioned the narrative.

I experienced this mob mentality in action when I dared question the prevailing narrative. In 2022, posted what I thought was thoughtful thread comparing vaccine passports to historical patterns of discrimination. As the descendant of Holocaust survivors, I carefully noted that I wasn't comparing current events to 1943 Germany, but rather warning about how societies normalize discrimination through incremental steps - the exact process that began in 1933.

The response proved my point perfectly. The New York Times published a story that left out the historical context of my explanation. A mob formed demanding my resignation from the brewery I had built over a decade. Thousands of messages exist on the Internet about what a horrible person I am. After a successful two decade career in tech and then with the brewery, if you Google my name, most of the content describes a person I don't recognize. This wasn't just cancellation - it was digital character assassination. Some friends never spoke to me again. My crime wasn't comparing current events to the Holocaust's horrors (never once did I invoke the Holocaust), but rather daring to point out how "checkpoint societies" begin: with the normalization of discriminating against a group by suggesting they pose a threat to public health.

The historical parallels were impossible to ignore - yet most disturbing was how few people recognized them. A generation raised without understanding history, critical thinking, or basic scientific principles couldn't see the patterns repeating before their eyes. Nazi propaganda had portrayed Jews as spreaders of typhus. Now, mainstream media outlets portrayed the unvaccinated as spreaders of COVID, despite clear evidence that vaccination status had no impact on transmission. In both cases, pseudo-scientific claims about public health were used to justify stripping basic rights from a targeted group.

This wasn't an isolated incident. Across the country, professionals who raised concerns faced similar campaigns of intimidation:

  • Doctors who reported vaccine injuries had their licenses threatened

  • Scientists who questioned data faced academic censure

  • Business owners who opposed mandates faced coordinated boycotts

  • Journalists who investigated pharmaceutical conflicts of interest were sidelined

The pattern was always the same: first the media distortion, then the mob, then the institutional pressure. It is a dangerous world where we cannot say what we believe is right out of fear of losing everything we worked so hard to build.

Reality used to be something we shared. Not anymore. In the past few years, we have witnessed something unprecedented: the deliberate fracturing of reality into separate, incompatible timelines. Not based on geography or culture, but based entirely on information streams.

In one timeline, the past few years were defined by a heroic global effort to stop a deadly pandemic. Governments acted with urgency, the vaccines were a miraculous solution that saved lives, and those who refused them were reckless threats to public safety. In another timeline, the same period was a coordinated mass psychological operation - one that justified authoritarian overreach, rewrote the social contract, and gaslit the injured while funneling trillions of dollars to corporations. This timeline fracturing represents reality engineering's ultimate achievement—not just controlling information, but creating entirely separate perceptual worlds where the same events have fundamentally different meanings. When reality itself becomes a manufactured product, traditional concepts of truth and evidence no longer function as social anchors. Depending on which timeline you were placed in, your entire understanding of the world - who was good, who was evil, what was truth - was predetermined.

This timeline fracturing represents reality engineering's ultimate achievement - not just controlling information, but creating entirely separate perceptual worlds where the same events have fundamentally different meanings. When reality itself becomes a manufactured product, traditional concepts of truth and evidence no longer function as social anchors. Depending on which timeline you were placed in, your entire understanding of the world - who was good, who was evil, what was truth - was predetermined.

I get it - because I was duped too. I believed them. I was stupid enough to get "vaccinated" without questioning (or really, even looking at) the data. It wasn't until days later, after a friend pushed me to dig deeper, that I realized I had injected something into my body without any real understanding of what it was. And when I looked at the evidence, I felt betrayed. The difference is, I was willing to admit I was wrong. Others still can't, because it would mean acknowledging they participated in something unforgivable.

It's not just about ego - it's about identity. To admit they were wrong means confronting the fact that they enforced a system of persecution against their own friends, family, and neighbors. So instead, they double down. Like victims of Stockholm syndrome, they became ardent defenders of the system that harmed them. Even after being lied to, coerced, and in many cases injured, they couldn't break free from their psychological captivity. Because once you've helped enforce injustice, admitting the truth means confronting your own complicity in mass discrimination.

Some relationships are irretrievably lost. Not because we changed, but because acknowledging the truth would require dismantling their entire worldview. They're trapped in a reality we can no longer share.

The Manufacturing of Truth

The path to justice requires dismantling both the machinery of reality engineering and its social enforcement mechanisms. We must acknowledge not just the reality of vaccine injuries - now validated by premier research institutions - but the broader system that made their persecution possible. This means creating spaces where suppressed experiences can be shared without fear, challenging the systemic gaslighting of victims, and demanding accountability from both the architects of this deception and those who enforced it through performative compliance.

Real resistance requires exposing the conflicts of interest that drive reality engineering, from pharmaceutical profits to military agendas. Most crucially, we must establish safeguards against the weaponization of social consensus for medical coercion. This includes the ways institutions co-opt and control even the recognition of their own wrongdoing. When prestigious universities finally validate what the injured have been saying for years, it comes with strings attached: data monetization, narrative control, careful limitation of scope. Real justice isn't just about acknowledgment - it's about full disclosure and actual care for the injured.

A Call for Real Justice

To those who now post about the next trending cause while pretending the last few years never happened: Your performative activism has been exposed for what it always was - a social fashion accessory, discarded the moment real courage was required. You've lost all credibility to speak about inclusion, justice, or human rights. You didn't just observe discrimination - you celebrated it. You didn't just ignore medical coercion - you demanded it. You didn't just witness the silencing of the injured - you actively participated in it.

The pandemic exposed a fundamental truth about modern activism: those who perform virtue the loudest often enable harm the most enthusiastically. The same voices that change their social media profiles for every trending cause revealed themselves as eager participants in actual discrimination when it aligned with their tribal interests. Their commitment to human rights extended exactly as far as their perceived social standing and engagement metrics.

This wasn't just hypocrisy - it was a complete moral collapse masked by algorithmic theater. The Instagram-ification of protest, the reduction of resistance to hashtags, the substitution of profile picture frames for principle - all of it served to create the illusion of justice while enabling its opposite. Real resistance isn't about social media gestures or convenient forgiveness - it's about standing firm against oppression, even when - especially when - that oppression comes wrapped in the language of public good.

The unvaccinated and vaccine-injured represent the most brutally marginalized groups in recent American history. The scale of this systematic exclusion was unprecedented in modern America:

  • Over 7 million Americans lost jobs due to mandates

  • 22,000 military service members discharged

  • 50,000+ healthcare workers terminated

  • Countless families denied access to basic services

  • Children barred from schools and activities

  • The injured systematically denied medical care and disability benefits

No other group in recent history has faced such comprehensive banishment from society - excluded from workplaces, education, travel, entertainment, and even basic medical care, all while being publicly demonized by mainstream media and entertainment figures.

Their story isn't trending. Their flag isn't fashionable. Their cause won't get you likes. But ignoring them doesn't erase what happened. The same people who loudly signaled their virtue with their vaccine selfies now pretend the past five years never happened. But we remember. And we won't let them rewrite history.

Today, many of those same enforcers have moved on to their next causes - whatever generates the most engagement, whatever lets them perform virtue without risking anything real. But there can be no moving forward without reconciliation. The machinery of social coercion they so eagerly operated stands exposed. Their poses of moral virtue lie in ruins. The next time they change their profile picture for some fashionable cause, remember: They already showed us who they really are when ostracizing dissenters was trending. This isn't over. The system that turned neighbors against each other remains in place, waiting for the next crisis to weaponize empathy into compliance. We must act now to prevent the next manufactured crisis. This means demanding complete transparency from public health institutions, supporting independent research into treatments for the vaccine-injured, creating legal protections for medical autonomy, and building information networks resistant to censorship. Most importantly, it means holding accountable those who knowingly deceived the public—not through vengeance, but through a truth and reconciliation process that ensures such widespread harm never happens again. The only question is: next time, will you recognize it happening? And if you comply again, what will be left of your humanity when it's over?

True solidarity isn't measured by profile pictures or hashtags, but by the willingness to stand against injustice when it costs you something. During COVID, genuine allies wouldn't have been posting selfies with vaccine cards, but rather demanding transparency when the injured were silenced, questioning disproportionate impacts on marginalized communities, and refusing to participate in segregating society—even at the cost of their social standing. They would have recognized that human rights aren't partisan luxuries that apply only to favored groups, but universal principles that matter most when they're inconvenient. They would have seen that discrimination dressed in the language of public health is still discrimination. Instead, most self-proclaimed activists failed the most significant civil rights test of our generation, revealing that their commitment to justice extended precisely as far as their social media engagement metrics. The next time a crisis emerges and you're told who to fear, who to exclude, and which questions not to ask, remember: courage isn't joining the chorus of the comfortable—it's speaking truth when the consequences are real. History will remember not just who enforced injustice, but who remained silent as it happened.

The long-term damage extends beyond the immediate casualties. Public health institutions have destroyed decades of accumulated trust through their willing participation in deception. The next genuine health crisis will be met with justified skepticism by millions who witnessed this betrayal. Medical authorities have traded long-term credibility for short-term compliance, creating a dangerous void where every health recommendation will now be questioned, regardless of merit. Rebuilding this trust will require not just new leadership, but institutional transparency, accountability for past actions, and the restoration of principles like informed consent and data integrity as non-negotiable foundations of public health.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/06/2025 - 21:45

Musk Fired-Up About Paul's Rescission Idea For Slashing Spending Up To $500 Billion

Zero Hedge -

Musk Fired-Up About Paul's Rescission Idea For Slashing Spending Up To $500 Billion

Seeking to codify spending cuts pursued by his Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk held a closed-door lunch with Republican senators on Wednesday. Musk was said to be "elated" with Sen. Rand Paul's recommendation to make the cuts stick with a relatively expeditious budget-slashing technique called "rescission." The approach could guide DOGE cuts around federal judges who consider executive-branch-initiated spending cuts as exceeding constitutional authority. 

Rescission offers a means by which presidents can collaborate with Congress to cancel previously-appropriated spending. Enabled by Title X of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, the rarely-used process starts with the president sending a special message to Congress, providing specific details about which budgetary authorities he wants to rescind. 

Musk was said to raise his arms triumphantly when Paul explained how rescission can slash spending with just 51 Senate votes instead of 60

With Republicans holding a narrow 53-47 Senate majority, one of the most attractive aspects of rescission is that it doesn't require 60 votes -- a simple majority suffices to grant the president's wish. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley told reporters that Musk was "elated" with Paul's proposal: "I think he didn't realize it could be done at 51." According to South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham, it was the first time Musk had heard of the rescission process. He said Musk reacted by triumphantly lifting his arms into the air.  

The approach promises to immunize DOGE spending cuts from federal judges who are skeptical about the executive branch's power to cut spending that was duly authorized by Congress. This week has seen two major developments that demonstrate the strength of that judicial headwind:

Rescission is an alternative to "impoundment," by which presidents unilaterally delay Congressionally-directed spending. First used by Thomas Jefferson, the method was restricted by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (ICA) after Democrats felt President Nixon was abusing it. Trump has called ICA "a disaster of a law" and vowed to “do everything I can to challenge [it] in court, and if necessary, get Congress to overturn it.” However, as noted above, the same law provides the opportunity for rescission, which means Trump can use ICA to his advantage. 

Up to this point, Trump has pursued impoundment, but Paul says that increasingly looks like a dead end. Pointing to the Supreme Court's fresh ruling against the administration, Paul said, "My message to Elon was, let’s get over the impoundment idea. Let’s send it back as a rescission package, because then we’ll get … 51 senators, or 50 senators [plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance] to cut the spending.”

That's not to say rescission will be a layup. The move was attempted once during Trump's first administration, only to be derailed by two nay votes from Republican senators. One of them, Maine's Susan Collins, now chairs the Appropriations committee (the other, Richard Burr, left office.) Last time around, Collins said she felt rescission took too much power from Congress -- despite the fact that the rescission process itself springs from an act of Congress. Paul suggested that Trump will need to push harder than he did in 2018: “We lost that battle. But I don’t think they tried very hard. I don’t think they came and lobbied us. I don’t think they came and talked to us.”

Paul told reporters that the lunch discussion with Musk focused on the concept rather than nailing down dollar amounts. However, Paul said the White House and Republican legislators should strive to slash at least $100 billion and perhaps up to $500 billion from a budget that's currently around $7 billion -- or about 23% of GDP.   

Talking to Reason last month, leading deficit-Hawk Paul scoffed at critics who claimed DOGE's initial several-billion-dollar saving opportunities were insignificant against the backdrop of such a huge budget: 

 "Why would we still not start with the most egregious stuff and get rid of it? Ultimately, how do you get to better spending? You get better people in government, or you give them less money. I don't think we can really expect to get better people, less bureaucrats in government….The only way you get less waste is to give them less money to spend." 

Now, Paul is working hard to put up numbers that will silence critics on the right -- and trigger wailing and gnashing of teeth on the left. More power to him.   

*  *  *

Support independent media. Grab a ZeroHedge hat at the ZH Store, or buy any 2 bags of coffee and receive a free ZeroHedge Tumbler!

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/06/2025 - 21:20

Trump Exposes More Evidence Of Proxy War After Disabling Ukraine Access To U.S. Missile And Drone Systems

Zero Hedge -

Trump Exposes More Evidence Of Proxy War After Disabling Ukraine Access To U.S. Missile And Drone Systems

Authored by Sundance via The Last Refuge,

The media have not, and in most cases cannot, factually discuss what President Trump has just done without opening up a major can-of-worms about the motives behind the Ukraine war.

When President Trump stopped “intelligence sharing” with Ukraine, what he technically did was stop allowing Ukraine to use exclusive USA targeting systems controlled by U.S Intelligence, the CIA, the National Reconnaissance Office and the U.S. National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

These terrain mapping systems, the missile and drone targeting systems, are what military forces inside Ukraine need to carry out offensive drone and missile attacks against Russian forces.

Some elements in Western Intel are leaking to media that Trump only cut-off the targeting system that would permit Ukraine to hit deep into Russian territory, including in Russia proper.  However, the ‘Russian territory‘ as seemingly defined by the National Security Council includes most of Eastern Ukraine now.

In essence and material reality, the elements in Ukraine who are conducting war, and this includes U.K and U.S special forces, the CIA and various NATO allied military operators (not Ukraine military) can no longer effectively hit long-range Russian targets, without the U.S. targeting system that identifies it.

The real-time sharing of military grade GPS encryption keys has been stopped by the U.S. Commander in Chief, President Trump.  Effective immediately without targeting system access, ATACMS, HIMARS, Storm Shadow and Taurus missile systems are no longer functional to those Ukraine operators (remember, those operators are not necessarily Ukranian).

Additionally, the drones that Ukraine has been using also rely on the same accurate, real-time, terrain-mapping satellite data that transmits back to the guidance systems. Without the U.S. encryption keys, what the media is obtusely calling “intelligence sharing,” all of the aforementioned attack systems are rendered moot.  THIS IS HUGE.

The part that is really interesting to those who have followed the events of the past three years, is literally who has been in control of and deploying these missile and drone attack systems.

All of the intellectually honest researchers know that it is the USA (special forces) and to a lesser extent the collaborating U.K (special forces) who have been operating these systems.  Yes, they have been training Ukranians, but they damned sure are not giving them the highly classified and tightly controlled encryption keys within the targeting system.

In reality, this means the USA/UK are the forces doing the actual fighting of consequence against Russia in the geography of Ukraine.  A true and genuine proxy war between NATO and Russia has been ongoing.  This stoppage of the missile/drone targeting system by President Trump is factually exposing this proxy war reality.

In the background of what President Trump is doing the NATO alliance, CIA and EU global intelligence operators well understand the ramifications.  However, to discuss them openly is to expose the reality that US/UK/NATO have been controlling the war in Ukraine against Russia.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is an irrelevant puppet to these military decisions, that’s why he can travel around doing his insufferable nonsense while a war is waged on his behalf.

Now, think about this dynamic very carefully because now we know President Trump and President Putin are talking to each other.

We know Vladimir Putin is well aware of how the Western targeting system is being used in Ukraine; he has talked about it openly and publicly.  However, the West has never admitted it, because to do so would be to inform the public of the proxy war.

After the Biden/Harris team lost the election, on December 21st, 2024, drone attacks were launched from Ukraine into Kazan Russia {GO Deep}.  Those attacks were intended to antagonize Russia and provoke a response.

With the new information we now have confirmation that these drone and missile strikes into Russia were factually attacks supported by U.S. targeting systems.  The non-pretending reality = The USA attacked Russia using Ukraine.

All of this activity is clouded in this crazy level of pretending that Ukraine is able to defend itself with a little Western support.  That has always been nonsense.  NATO, the CIA and the global IC has been in control of the war fighting from the outset.  Again, all the new information aligns with this now demonstrably accurate reality.

It was the USA who launched the December drone attacks into Kazan, Russia, using the geography of Ukraine as the launch origination.  Additionally, it was the USA who recently (Feb 18th) launched drone/missile attacks against Western interests while Secretary Rubio was meeting with Russian emissaries in Riyad, Saudi Arabia.

Drones from Ukraine attacked a pumping station responsible for transporting oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC).  This is not exclusively a Russian oil infrastructure asset.  This is partly a western asset belonging to American energy corporations.  As noted by Medvedev: “In 2024, American businesses accounted for over 40% of CPC oil shipments, and together with other Western companies, their total share exceeded 65%.”

Now, think carefully about what the Western control elements behind the Ukraine military operations are doing.  “They” are, essentially, using U.S. provided military weapons, to target energy infrastructure -ancillary to Russia- that is owned by American corporations.  Who are “they”?

Again, step back and look at the larger geopolitical dynamic.

President Trump, and by extension his team, knows the USA has been carrying out the drone/missile attacks from inside Ukraine.  President Vladimir Putin, and by extension his team, knows the same.

President Trump is in direct conversation with President Vladimir Putin.  Does this put the context of their conversations into a different light?

Everyone behind President Trump has to retain pretenses, or there’s going to be a big shit-hitting-fan moment, when a frustrated Trump spills the beans about the USA level of control in the Ukraine v Russia operation.

Knowing the USA/UK/NATO/CIA and Western Intel are conducting the offensive military operations you can only imagine how those “proxy war” control agents are freaked out about Trump and Putin talking to each other.

From the Russian Perspective – In the mind of Putin he now sees President Trump stopping NATO/EU/CIA/UK forces from being able to reach Russia with any attack system.

They don’t need to discuss it, and likely would not, but Putin’s people clearly can see that Trump’s people have stopped the West from their ability to hit Russia with anything.

An unspoken trust is being established through actions, not words. That’s a radical shift, and pretty cool all things considered.

Bad actors within the government Donald Trump now represents have attacked Russia.  Donald Trump wants it all to stop. Zelenskyy is the front face of the pretense that Donald Trump has to navigate.  The UK/NATO/CIA are still propping Zelenskyy up.

♦ WATCH FOR THIS – The U.S. is still sharing the targeting information with the U.K. However, if the NATO/EU/UK/CIA use the targeting system it will be very obvious; attacks against ‘Russian territory’ be visible. That’s all the proof needed.

If any long-range missile/drone operations continue, then someone is violating the Trump order. There is no other way to look at it.

At that point, something rather radical is likely to be announced by President Trump that shreds every facet of the U.S. relationship with NATO, the UK and even the Five-Eyes consortium.

Geopolitically, every player mentioned is well aware of this dynamic. Hence, the apoplexy we are witnessing.

This is a very interesting dynamic to watch closely.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/06/2025 - 19:15

Friday: Employment Report, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for February.   The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%.

• At 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, N.Y.

US Considers Plan To Disrupt Iran's Oil With Navy Interventions On High Seas

Zero Hedge -

US Considers Plan To Disrupt Iran's Oil With Navy Interventions On High Seas

The Trump White House is currently considering a plan that would take the recently reinstated 'maximum pressure' campaign back to the high seas, akin to Trump's first term as Commander-in-Chief.

This would involve US Navy ships stopping and inspecting Iranian oil vessels transiting the sea under an international mechanism aimed at thwarting "spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)," sources in Reuters said. This had been done at times under Biden as well.

Image: US Navy

The idea is to crack down once again on Iranian oil sales in order to cut off crucial funding for Iran's nuclear energy program, which both Israel and Washington suspect could easily be converted to an atomic weapons program.

"Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes. That would delay delivery of crude to refiners. It could also expose parties involved in facilitating the trade to reputational damage and sanctions," the sources told Reuters. 

"You don’t have to sink ships or arrest people to have that chilling effect that this is just not worth the risk. The delay in delivery... instills uncertainty in that illicit trade network," one source clarified. 

The legal mechanism reportedly being examined goes all the way back the 'war on terror' 2003 Proliferation Security Initiative, which seeks to prevent the trafficking of WMDs. (Nevermind that the Bush-era 'Iraqi WMDs' scare was based on a complete myth and lie advanced by the NeoCons at the time).

"This mechanism could enable foreign governments to target Iran's oil shipments at Washington's request," another source told Reuters.

The Biden administration had at times also sought to seize Iranian oil shipments, especially to disrupt sales in places like China, or also Syria.

As for the Syria situation, this policy helped tighten the noose around Assad in Western regime change efforts which led to his ouster - but the Syrian people continue to starve and be largely without fuel.

The US Treasury Department has frequently alleged that the Islamic Republic maintains a "shadow fleet" which sends Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars abroad. Tehran in response has argued it is fully its right to sell its energy resources utilizing international waters and passage.

Last month, US Treasury Secretary Bessent first indicated US is aggressively targeting Iranian efforts to use oil revenues to bolster its nuclear program, develop ballistic missiles, and support its terror proxies. Will this serve to bring Tehran and the Trump administration to the negotiating table? 

It looks calculated to do so, at least. Trump would like a new, better deal which would allow international monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities. But Tehran has underscored that Trump already pulled out of the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, which effectively did just that.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/06/2025 - 18:50

Pages