Pretense, Staging, Expediency: The "Solutions" That Implode The Whole Shebang

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Slapdash quick fixes and policies share one characteristic: they eventually implode the whole shebang.

We all know how this works: the business is failing and the divorce papers have been filed, but the optics are ugly, so the couple waltzes in, all smiles and lovey-dovey, for who wants to explain how it all went wrong?

To paper over the inevitable reckoning, expediencies are deployed: money is borrowed but the loans are kept off the books, defaults are buried, the kids' college fund is raided, promises that can't be kept are made, and so on.

To maintain the illusion that all is well, everything is carefully staged. The failing business still churns out PR, the yard service keeps the front yard tidy, and the inability to pay the university tuition is explained away as a "gap year" as the eldest child seeks work experience to bolster their career opportunities, etc.

2026 is the year when all the "solutions" of Pretense, Staging and Expediency implode on every level: household, enterprise, local, state and national, for Pretense, Staging and Expediency are scale-invariant "solutions": cooking the books, staging and hiding debt works for the state and nation just as well as it does for the sole proprietor and bankrupt household.

The only difference is the depth of the deviousness. The larger the organization, the greater the resources available to throw into Pretense, Staging and Expediency. So banks extend a new loan to borrowers who defaulted so they can make minimal payments, an expediency that enables the bank to keep the non-performing loan on the books as an asset in good standing.

Conventional economists are paid truckloads of cash to conjure up gamed statistics and bogus projections that act as eye-catching facades hiding the rotting mansion awaiting collapse.

The problem is Pretense, Staging and Expediency are not actual solutions. Since there's no actual long-term plan to address the dire consequences of previous "solutions," Pretense and Staging are deployed along with increasingly destabilizing Expediencies to mask the unintended consequences of slapdash quick fixes.

Policies touted as "solutions" that lack any consideration of the consequences are in effect Expediencies, as the first-order effects of policies that affect the entire system are hard enough to anticipate, while the second-order effects (consequences generate their own set of consequences) only unfold over time and cannot be fully anticipated.

Semantic / narrative-control Pretense and Staging are popular but self-defeating, as calling the risk-choked Shadow Banking System "private credit" doesn't change the dominoes-falling house of cards nature of expediencies as they implode. (Thank you, correspondent Anthony A., for this example.)

Slapdash fixes / policies share one characteristic: they eventually implode the whole shebang when the failure of Pretense, Staging and Expediency to actually resolve structural problems becomes unavoidably obvious. Hope clings tenaciously to Pretense, Staging and Expediency, but when this faith in falsehoods and fakery finally expires, there's no outrunning the consequences.

We'll know things are serious when those in charge are reduced to relying on lies as their last-ditch cover story.

Alternatively, we'll know things are serious when the AI chatbot declares all this is a fringe conspiracy theory and then three questions later, it's recommending survivalist strategies of the fringe conspiracy theory variety.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 13:40

Minnesota To Mandate K–12 Ethnic Studies Instruction In 2026

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

In the coming weeks, school boards across the Land of 10,000 Lakes state will decide on curricula to meet ethnic studies mandates for the 2026–2027 academic year.

There appear to be limited alternatives to the free instructional materials developed with taxpayer dollars and endorsed by the state teachers’ union.

That curriculum instructs 6th graders to learn the 13 guiding principles of the Black Lives Matter movement; 7th graders on how protesters have breached federal buildings; and higher schoolers to “identify plans of action that people have used to resist, refuse, and create alternatives to oppressive systems,” according to the materials developed by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Race, Indigeneity, Disability, Gender and Sexuality Studies (RIDGS).

“Students will be able to explain how race is socially constructed and how that social construction has been used to oppress people of color, specifically in relation to Jim Crow, segregation, and racial covenants,” reads the description for the 11th and 12th-grade Jim Crow of the North course.

The Center of the American Experiment, a Minnesota-based education policy organization that opposes partisan and race-based curricula, is helping districts find politically neutral alternatives that it says are more like traditional social studies and history electives and less like social justice advocacy guidance.

“The words ethnic studies have been hijacked,” Catrin Wigfall, a policy fellow with the center, told The Epoch Times.

“But boards [of education] have more power in this than they might think.”

Additionally, state laws allow parents to review a curriculum and opt their child out of any instruction they find objectionable, in which case the school is required to provide alternative materials, Wigfall said.

The Minnesota Department of Education defines ethnic studies as an interdisciplinary area of instruction that “analyzes how race and racism have been and continue to be social, cultural, and political forces, and the connection of race to the stratification of other groups.”

The state law requires public schools to incorporate ethnic studies lessons in mandatory social studies courses across all grade levels, in addition to offering a stand-alone ethnic studies elective course for high school juniors and seniors.

In 2023, the Minnesota Department of Education stipulated that the ethnic studies context is expected to be embedded in other subject areas, including math, physical education, and health, as courses are periodically revised.

The Center of the American Experiment argues that those standards habituate angry, inaccurate, and “identity-first” ideological and political perspectives.

By definition, ethnic studies should focus on global histories, cultures, and religions, but the instruction pushed in Minnesota schools forces a polarizing and narrow political worldview, Wigfall said.

“It’s been a bait and switch campaign,” she said.

The center endorses the American Experience curriculum by the Foundation Against Tolerance and Racism, which Johns Hopkins has approved as a model for ethnic studies instruction, as a suitable alternative to the University of Minnesota’s instructional materials.

In addition, the 1776 Unites free curriculum focuses on historical stories that “celebrate black excellence, reject victimhood culture, and showcase African-Americans who have prospered by embracing America’s founding ideals,” according to its website.

Wigfall said her organization will work with school districts to navigate curriculum choices and the timetable for meeting state requirements across various subject areas.

The center isn’t advocating litigation over the mandate, but local education leaders, under federal Title VI provisions, have legal recourse if they are forced to foster a hostile learning environment under state requirements.

“It will be interesting to see what the rollout looks like,” she said. “When you emphasize tribalism, what does that do to knowledge development?”

Minnesota isn’t the only place grappling with debates surrounding ethnic studies mandates.

The California Department of Education strongly recommends the curricula, but has yet to require them.

The Defending Education parents’ organization recently reported that K–12 districts in 22 states spent more than $17.5 million since 2017 on “liberated” ethnic studies instruction.

Mitch Siegler, founder of the THINC Foundation, which promotes K–12 curriculum transparency and is closely monitoring California’s moves, said his situation is similar to Minnesota’s in that consultants and content creators focusing on such ethnic studies collaborate with districts and teacher unions to “promote the only game in town.”

THINC is developing alternative materials that emphasize civics and American history.

“Warts and all,” Siegler said in an email response to The Epoch Times. “And which teaches students to debate complex issues and disagree in an agreeable fashion. That’s a far cry from the ideological approach which the ‘liberated’ consultants advocate for.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the Minnesota Department of Education and the University of Minnesota’s Center for Race, Indigeneity, Disability, Gender, and Sexuality Studies.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 13:00

UBS Says Soaring Memory Chip Prices To "Turbo-Charge" Samsung Earnings

For several months, we have tracked a sharp increase in DDR5 DRAM pricing, as evidenced by DRAMeXchange data, driven primarily by surging AI-related cloud computing demand and hyperscalers accelerating data center buildouts.

On day one of the new year, Samsung co-CEO Jun Young Hyun told employees in an internal memo that customers have praised the differentiated competitiveness of its next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, or HBM4, saying, "It's even earning an assessment from customers that 'Samsung is back'." He noted that Samsung will also benefit from favorable memory market conditions this year, as demand for artificial intelligence chips has materialized much quicker than initially anticipated.

The other week, Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya told clients that mounting concerns about soaring memory prices posed new risks for Nintendo, which manufactures consumer electronics such as the popular Switch 2.

"Some investors think that Nintendo will be selling Switch 2 at a loss and gross profit falling into the red. While rising memory prices are a risk factor that could depress hardware margins, we think concerns are somewhat excessive," Kamiya told clients last week.

While end-use consumer electronics companies such as Nintendo may be pressured by higher memory costs, the same pricing surge is expected to "turbo-charge earnings" for Samsung's memory business, according to UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois.

Gaudois explains why:

DDR and NAND contract pricing coming out higher than expected

With 4Q25 memory contract pricing negotiations now completed, we lift our forecast for DDR contract pricing to +35% QoQ (was +21%), and for NAND +20% (was +15%). We believe customers are trying to secure 1Q26 contract pricing in earnest, with further potential for upside. We now forecast blended DDR contract pricing to increase 29% QoQ (was +15%) and NAND +20% (was +10%) in 1Q26. From there on, we continue to forecast DRAM to remain undersupplied until 1Q27, and NAND 3Q26. We see the ongoing upside in conventional memory pricing as the main stock driver for Samsung. At 1.43x NTM book, we believe the stock is not yet discounting the strength and length of the upcycle ahead.

HBM shipments to catch up in 2026E

While we maintain our 2026 DRAM bit growth forecast of 15% YoY, we could see up to 2 pct pts upside depending on production yields / efficiency / mix. We continue to forecast HBM shipments to reach 7.5bn Gb in 2026, up 77% YoY. We continue to expect Samsung to provide HBM4 samples to Nvidia by February, which could lead to qualification by 2Q26 (with production starting earlier in 1Q). We believe Samsung remains first source for HBM for AMD and Open AI. Regarding Google, we believe Samsung is second source for TPU 7p, while Micron may be second source for TPU 7e (first source in both cases being SK Hynix).

Increasing forecasts well ahead of consensus on DDR/NAND ASP estimates

We increase our 4Q25 OP forecast to Won18.1tn from Won15.0tn (VA consensus: Won15.3tn) on the back of increased DRAM and NAND ASPs. We raise 2026E/27E OP to Won135.3tn/Won143.6tn (from Won101.2tn/Won109.5tn respectively), well ahead of consensus Won86.9tn/Won109.6tn respectively, and lift our 2026/27 EPS forecasts by 31%/29%. These changes are due to raised DDR/NAND ASPs as well as DRAM bit growth forecasts, which more than offset us lowering smartphone margins due to rising memory prices.

Valuation: lift price target to Won154,000 from Won128,000 – Buy

We value Samsung ordinary shares at 1.97x NTM book (was 1.79x) considering our 2026-30 average ROE estimate of 16.3% (was 14.6%) and CoE of 8.3% (was 8.2%). We also raise our Samsung GDR PT to US$2,610, from US$2,230, with the latest FX.

We've shown readers DDR5 DRAM pricing via DRAMeXchange...

Update: two months later https://t.co/Q4TPIrpzxV pic.twitter.com/O3KTKxZOVE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 22, 2025

But now, take a look at DDR5 DRAM pricing on Amazon!

As a reminder, AI workloads are built around memory.

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can view the full note in the usual place, which includes a thesis map of the memory cycle.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 12:40

10 Very Important Trends To Watch As We Enter 2026

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Are we on the brink of a worldwide nightmare? Many have described what we are currently experiencing as a “perfect storm”. We have been getting hit with one crisis after another as global events have greatly accelerated in recent months. But now it feels like the next chapter that we are entering is going to take things to an entirely different level.

On New Year’s Eve, something very unexpected happened at our most important landmark in the middle of the country.  You will want to read all the way to the end of this article to see what I am talking about.  This year is already off to a very unusual start, and I fully expect a lot more craziness in the months ahead.  

The following are 10 very important trends to watch as we enter 2026…

#1 The Price Of Silver

The price of silver is telling us that there is big trouble under the surface of the global financial system.  Even though there was a dramatic attempt to suppress the price of silver this week, it was still up about 140 percent in 2025.

And the difference between the price of paper silver and the prices that physical silver is going for around the world has become extremely alarming…

Silver at $130 in Japan, $106 in Kuwait, $97 in Korea, and “$71” on Western screens is not a market; it is a confession. The numbers read like a crime scene diagram: in the real world where bars change hands and coins disappear into safes, silver has quietly migrated into triple‑digit pricing, while the supposed “global benchmark” in New York and London is still stuck in a fantasyland of leveraged promises.​

In Tokyo shops and Japanese bullion counters, you are not buying silver in the 70s; you are paying the equivalent of $120–130 an ounce because that is what it costs to replace inventory once you factor in tight wholesale supply, shipping, insurance, currency chaos, and the growing sense that the next shipment might not show up on time, or at all. Kuwait tells the same story in a different language: retail bars priced around $100+ an ounce are not a fat merchant’s greed; they are the market’s answer to a simple question—what will it really take to pry physical metal out of the pipeline in a world where everyone suddenly wants the same scarce asset at the same time.​

#2 The Affordability Crisis

In 2025, I wrote about the affordability crisis in the United States a lot.

Sadly, at this stage approximately two-thirds of the entire U.S. population is struggling to even pay for the basics…

About 7 in 10 Americans polled by CBS News in December said they were struggling to pay for food, housing and health care, underscoring the affordability issues affecting millions of households.

#3 Israel And Iran

This is a big one.

Once Israel and Iran start fighting again, global events will go into overdrive.

Apparently a new round of airstrikes on Iran was discussed during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with President Trump on Monday, and I am convinced that it won’t be too long before those airstrikes actually begin…

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, during which the two leaders discussed efforts by Iran to reconstitute its nuclear program following the Israeli and American airstrikes in June, and to expand its ballistic missile arsenal.

During the meeting, Netanyahu shared with Trump details regarding Israel’s planning for a possible follow-up air campaign against Iran, should Tehran continue to refuse to halt its efforts to enrich uranium.

According to a US official and two other American sources, Israel is considering airstrikes in 2026.

#4 The War In Ukraine

Russian forces are steadily moving forward on the eastern and southern fronts in Ukraine, and so the Russians will not be inclined to give the Ukrainians and our European allies what they are demanding…

• Russian President Vladimir Putin inspected a command post of the Russian Armed Forces
• Putin received reports from Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and the commanders of Russia’s Center and East groupings of forces.
• Russian commanders told Putin that their army has captured the cities of Mirnohrad, Rodynske, and Artemivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as well as Huliaipole and Steponohirsk in the Zaporizhzhia region.

#5 Europe Preparing For War

Russia has made it very clear that it does not intend to attack any other European countries.

But for some reason, the Europeans are feverishly preparing for war anyway.

In fact, Germany is now requiring all 18-year-old males to complete a compulsory survey about military service…

Germany is stepping up preparations for war – starting with its teenage boys.

From this week, every German male will be legally required to answer questions from the army the moment he turns 18, as part of a sweeping new military service scheme approved amid mounting fears of a major conflict in Europe.

Tens of thousands of teenagers will be sent a compulsory 14-question survey by the Bundeswehr, asking not only how interested they are in joining the military, but how fit they are to fight and how quickly they could be ready for service.

Ignoring the form is not an option. Young men who refuse to complete the questionnaire – or repeatedly ignore follow-up demands from the army – face fines of up to €1,000 (£800), even though ministers insist the scheme falls short of full conscription.

#6 Venezuela

The Trump administration has been bombing drug boats, seizing oil tankers and threatening the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

This could put the U.S. on a collision course with China.

China does not intend to stop buying oil from Venezuela.  If the U.S. starts seizing Chinese oil tankers that approach Venezuela, that could cause a major international incident.  According to Newsweek, there are two Chinese oil tankers that are expected to arrive in Venezuela very soon…

Chinese oil tankers are pressing ahead with Venezuela-linked voyages despite a U.S. blockade and an escalating campaign of tanker seizures.

Two Chinese-flagged VLCCs are operating near Venezuelan waters, with the Thousand Sunny due to arrive in mid-January and the Xing Ye waiting off French Guiana, according to a new report by Lloyd’s List.

Newsweek has reached out to the U.S. State Department for comment.

#7 Taiwan

The Chinese just concluded military exercises that practiced what a full-blown blockade of Taiwan would look like.

At this stage, tensions between China and Taiwan are higher “than at any point in recent years”…

As 2025 ends, tensions between China and Taiwan are higher — and more overt — than at any point in recent years, fueled by expanded U.S. military support for Taipei, increasingly bold warnings from regional allies, and Chinese military drills that look less like symbolism and more like rehearsal.

Beijing has spent the year steadily increasing pressure on Taiwan through large-scale military exercises, air and naval incursions, and pointed political messaging, while Washington and its allies have responded with sharper deterrence signals that China now openly labels as interference.

#8 Pestilences

The bird flu continues to kill millions of birds all over the globe, various strains of mpox continue to circulate, and the pestilence that erupted in 2020 is still making people sick throughout the world.  Meanwhile, some U.S. states are seeing a historic spike in flu cases…

The ‘super flu’ is exploding across the US, with some states seeing more cases than ever before.

The latest CDC data for the week ending December 20 shows positive flu tests are up 53 percent compared to the week prior. Positive tests are up nearly 75 percent from this time last year.

During the week ending December 20, the number of people hospitalized surged 51 percent, and the number already in hospital has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year.

It is just a matter of time before the next great global pandemic arrives, and scientists are warning us that it could come from a multitude of potential directions…

Scientists continue to discover viruses with worrisome characteristics (Chen et al. 2025). Some experts worry about the potential for a leak from pathogen research labs (Palacios, Garcia-Sastre, and Relman 2025), or AI’s ability, in the wrong hands, to help with the creation of a bioweapon (Tjandra 2025). Out in the open, H5N1 avian influenza continues to spread and infect a wide range of animal species—the virus perhaps just a mutation away from becoming a human threat (Lin et al. 2024). Another pathogen, most likely an influenza or another coronavirus is waiting to break out.

#9 Seismic Activity Along The Pacific Ring Of Fire

Seismic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire increased dramatically in 2025.

And as we enter 2026, the state of California is being shaken by significant earthquakes on an almost daily basis.

In fact, we just witnessed a magnitude 4.9 quake that really shook a lot of people up…

A magnitude 4.9 earthquake was recorded near the town of Susanville in Lassen County on Tuesday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The quake was centered around nine miles northwest of Susanville at 9:49 p.m. It was downgraded from an initial magnitude of 5.3.

#10 The Greatest Global Food Crisis In Modern History

We are in the midst of the greatest global food crisis in modern history.

But don’t just take my word for it.

The following comes from the official website of the UN’s World Food program…

Yes. Right now, there is a global food crisis – the largest one in modern history. Since the United Nations World Food Program’s (WFP) creation in 1963, never has hunger reached such devastating highs. From the eruption of new conflicts and the escalating impacts of the climate crisis to soaring food and fuel costs, millions of people are being driven closer to starvation each day.

Nearly 350 million people around the world are experiencing the most extreme forms of hunger right now. Of those, nearly 49 million people are on the brink of famine. Behind these massive statistics are individual children, women and men suffering from the dire effects of such severe hunger. Malnourished mothers give birth to malnourished babies, passing hunger from one generation to the next. Children’s physical and cognitive growth is stunted. Farmers are unable to grow enough food to provide for their families and communities. Entire towns are forced to leave their homes in search of food.

We really are living in apocalyptic times.

Sadly, many in the western world don’t seem to understand this since we don’t have war or famine on our own soil.

But for those that are watching carefully, it is exceedingly clear that we have arrived at a truly unique chapter in human history.

So many incredibly strange things are occurring all around us.

On New Year’s Eve, a green meteor dramatically flew past the most important landmark in the center of the United States…

A shimmering meteor was spotted cutting across the sky over the famed Gateway Arch in Missouri hours before revelers rushed to a New Year’s Eve celebration at the monument’s base.

“HEY LOOK, it’s… A meteor saying hi to the Gateway Arch on New Year’s Eve!” The St. Louis Gateway Arch’s X account wrote in a post shared with the breathtaking video.

In the six-second clip, a small white speck appears over one end of the arch. It grows into a green blaze that pulses once before disappearing back into the dark obscurity provided by the predawn sky — right as it reaches the arch’s peak.

The viral video was captured on an Earth Cam situated at Malcolm Martin Memorial Park in east St. Louis. The camera is angled directly towards the city’s skyline all day, every day.

That is something that you don’t see every day.

Of course so many weird things have been happening in the heavens over the last couple of years, and most of the population simply doesn’t care.

Most of us have an unbreakable addiction to entertainment at this point, and getting people to focus on anything other than entertainment is becoming exceedingly difficult.

Most people are just going to continue to stare at their screens as the world falls apart all around them, and that is extremely unfortunate.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/02/2026 - 12:20