Signal, AfD Slam EU Chat Control As End Of Privacy In Europe

Via Remix News,

After Germany dropped its long-standing opposition to EU chat control, leading encrypted messenger Signal issued a dire warning about privacy in Europe, with the post going viral.

However, now European parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have joined in the criticism, with the party warning just before the EU Council vote that so-called “chat control” could end privacy entirely in Europe.

The protest from the AfD comes after Signal threatened to pull out entirely from Europe if the EU implements its surveillance plans. If Signal went through with such a move, it would be a major black eye for the EU, putting it on par with surveillance states like China.

Ruben Rupp, the digital policy spokesperson for the AfD parliamentary group, warned against “total surveillance under the guise of child protection.”

“What is being sold here is, in reality, a frontal attack on the fundamental rights of all citizens. Such a measure places the entire population under general suspicion,” Rupp said. He added that millions of innocent users would be spied on, and instead, the focus should be on harsher punishments for those who hurt or abuse children, not mass surveillance.

AfD politician Rupp wants Berlin to turn against the new spying powers that would be granted to the EU.

He said that “Germany can no longer duck away, but must vote against this surveillance madness together with freedom-oriented states like Poland and Austria. Freedom and privacy are not negotiable goods.”

The upcoming vote, scheduled for Oct. 14, would see the EU Council vote on the “Regulation on the Prevention and Combating of Child Sexual Abuse,” also known as the CSAM regulation for short.

One of the major countries long opposed to such a measure has been Germany. What the law would actually do would allow automated searches of all private messages across the entire EU, including messages, photos, and videos, in order for the EU to look for child abuse or child pornography materials. Most importantly, these messages would be accessible to the EU even if they were encrypted.

On the surface, the EU says this is necessary to view all data flow in the European Union, including all end-to-end encrypted communications. However, data protection advocates indicate that the move would lead to digital mass surveillance on par with China.

“Under the guise of protecting children, the latest Chat Control proposals would require mass scanning of every message, photo, and video on a person’s device, assessing these via a government-mandated database or AI model to determine whether they are permissible content or not,” writes Signal in a call to action.

Signal wrote a press release opposing the EU chat control plan, which gained 4 million views on X alone.

“We are alarmed by reports that Germany is on the verge of a catastrophic about-face, reversing its longstanding and principled opposition to the EU’s Chat Control proposal which, if passed, could spell the end of the right to privacy in Europe,” wrote the messaging app non-profit, which is used by hundreds of millions of people.

We are alarmed by reports that Germany is on the verge of a catastrophic about-face, reversing its longstanding and principled opposition to the EU’s Chat Control proposal which, if passed, could spell the end of the right to privacy in Europe. https://t.co/015qmQnIS2

— Signal (@signalapp) October 3, 2025

Signal further warned in its press release that the EU’s proposal “is a horrifying idea for many reasons. First, the technical consensus is clear. Scanning every message–whether you do it before, or after these messages are encrypted–negates the very premise of end-to-end encryption. Instead of having to break the gold-standard Signal encryption protocol to access someone’s Signal messages, hackers and hostile nation states only need to piggyback on the access granted to the scanning system. This threat is so severe that even intelligence agencies agree it would be catastrophic for national security.”

There are further fears that the program could be rolled out to protect children, but over time, it could be expanded to censor political speech and arrest or punish political opponents of the ruling liberal establishment in Europe. Notably, users have been prosecuted for sharing memes, political content, and “off-color” jokes, oftentimes in private groups, such as the case of Dries Van Langenhove in Belgium.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 09:15

Futures Rise As Global Debasement Trade Sends Gold Over $4000

Futures are higher again, reversing Tuesday's modest Oracle-led decline, and are led by small caps despite additional multi billion tech investment headlines. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.1% higher, set for their 8th gain in the past 9 days, with Nasdaq 100 contacts +0.2% with Mag7, Semis, and AI-themed plays all rallying off the investment news. In premarket trading, AMD extended gains after an explosive rally following its multibillion-dollar AI deal with OpenAI. Tesla advanced after it unveiled a cheaper version of its top-selling electric vehicle. Cyclicals poised to outperform Defensive even as Ray Dalio warned that the AI-driven market rally “feels frothy.” Of course, it is all now just a debasement trade with everyone and their mother dumping fiat and buying hard currencies, sending gold above $4,000 an ounce for the first time, and silver above $49. The dollar gained for a third day against major peers and is now 2.5% off its 52-wk low as 96.00, while Treasury yields dipped. In commodities, Energy and Precious metals are the stand outs as gold breaks above $4k. The Administration said ~$13bn in farming aid may be rolled out soon. Today we get the FOMC minutes at 2pm; the Federal Budget Balance will likely be delayed due to the government shutdown. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.3%, Nvidia +0.6%, Amazon +0.4%, Microsoft +0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%, Alphabet -0.1%, Apple -0.1%).

• Precious metals miners climb after spot gold rallied past $4,000 an ounce for the first time amid concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown.
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) rises 9% after announcing a pact with Verizon to provide direct-to-cellular AST SpaceMobile service when needed for Verizon customers starting in 2026.
• CervoMed (CRVO) soars 16% after announcing that its Phase 2b trial demonstrated neflamapimod’s potential as a treatment for dementia with Lewy bodies.
• Confluent (CFLT) gains 17% as Reuters reports that the data-infrastructure company is exploring a sale after receiving acquisition interest.
• Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) falls 3% after Equifax said its VantageScore 4.0 service will offer mortgage credit scores at $4.50 through the end of 2027.
• Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) slips nearly 2% after it said it’s in communication with First Brands Group’s advisers to determine the impact of First Brands’ bankruptcy on Leucadia Asset Management’s Point Bonita Capital. Leucadia Asset Management is owned by Jefferies.
• Joby Aviation (JOBY) is down 10% after offering $500 million in shares via Morgan Stanley.
• Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) slips 2% following a downgrade to neutral at Goldman Sachs, which sees less certainty regarding the medical-equipment company’s outlook.
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) shares drop 23% after the company’s FY26 sales guidance range fell short of the consensus of analyst estimates. The company, which helps enterprises to build out AI infrastructure, said the guidance range is wider than usual to “reflect a broader set of potential outcomes.”
• QuantumScape (QS) rises 5% after the maker of lithium-metal batteries entered a joint-development agreement with Murata Manufacturing Co.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) rises 6% after the company said it signed a contract with iQPS to launch three more satellites for the Japanese compan

In corporate news, Salesforce told customers it won’t pay a ransom demand from a hacker who claimed to have stolen a large amount of client data and threatened to publish it. xAI is raising more financing than initially planned, tapping backers including Nvidia to lift its ongoing funding round to $20 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Concerns have been growing that $16 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from its April lows had gone too far. Tuesday’s drop came amid mounting chatter about lofty valuations around artificial intelligence, with some market participants seeing an echo of the excesses that led to the dot-com crash 25 years ago. On Tuesday, investors turned cautious after the Information reported that Oracle may post a disappointing profit margin for the latest quarter, spurring a selloff in tech shares.  Still, many investors fear missing out on further gains, with the upcoming earnings season set to provide clues on the rally’s sustainability.

“There are worrying signals on the AI rally, which reminds me of 1997 when I started my career,” said Gilles Guibout, head of European equities at Axa Investment Managers. “The bubble burst in 2000 but those managers who had refused to follow the rally, rightfully expecting it to go pop, lost a lot of money for their clients. There’s a real risk to get out of the AI trade too early; what you need to do is stay invested but with your finger on the exit button and stay diversified.”

And with nobody willing to sell first, equity volatility remains deeply subdued, despite a growing list of potential cracks beneath the surface. According to Bank of America, S&P 500 three-month realized vol sits near 8.5%, its lowest decile since 1990. 

Catching up to our discussion on the massive AI circle jerk, Bloomberg’s Big Take today highlights how a wave of deals involving Nvidia and OpenAI are escalating concerns that an increasingly complex and interconnected web of business transactions is artificially propping up the AI boom. Still, Goldman strategist Peter Oppenheimer said it’s too early to be worried about a bubble. The rally in tech has been accompanied by robust earnings growth, while previous bubbles were driven mainly by speculation. And Jamie Dimon said that JPMorgan’s investments in AI are paying off, with cost savings matching the $2 billion annual spend on developing the technology.

As noted last night, the global currency debasement trade pushed Gold above $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever, with silver rising above $49 for the first time since 2011 and on pace for a new record high.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark climbed 0.6%, on track for another record close, as the basic resources sector jumped more than 1%. The French CAC 40 outperformed most of its regional peers after the outgoing PM expressed optimism that an accord can be reached to allow the formation of a new government. Lloyds Banking Group Plc led banks higher after a favorable ruling on the cost of disputed car loans. European stocks were also buoyed by moves to resolve France’s budget impasse. The country’s CAC 40 equity index rose as much as 0.8% and bond yields fell. The European technology sub-index, however, underperformed. BMW AG slumped, dragging peers lower, after the German luxury-car maker cut its financial guidance on weak sales in China and tariff-related costs. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Umicore shares rise as much as 8%, to their highest since June 2024, after the company announced it will sell permanently tied-up gold inventories, strengthening its balance sheet
• Marston shares advance as much as 11%, the most in a year, following a trading update from the UK pub company which prompts Peel Hunt to increase its pretax profit estimates
• Addnode gains as much as 13% following an upgrade to buy from hold at Pareto Securities, with the Swedish IT group now deemed to be trading back at attractive levels
• BMW shares decline as much as 7.4% after cutting its guidance for the full year due to weak volume growth in China and costs related to the implementation of tariffs
• Aryzta shares fall as much as 7.9%, the most in three years, after the Swiss baker issued a profit warning and said it replaced CEO Michael Schai with immediate effect
• Aurubis shares drop as much as 5.7%, retreating from Tuesday’s record high close, after the copper smelting company released an update ahead of its capital markets day
• Aixtron shares fall as much as 8.9%, the most since April, as analysts at JPMorgan forecast that a slower recovery in the firm’s core markets will add near-term risk to estimates
• Serica Energy shares fall as much as 14% after the company said an issue with the flare system on Dana Petroleum-operated Triton FPSO resulted in a temporary suspension of production from Sept. 30
• Unite Group shares fall as much as 6.1%, to the lowest in more than five years, after Morgan Stanley called the latest trading update of the student accommodation provider disappointing

Meanwhile, the US / EU trade deal is being questioned by the EU as the US makes new demands, calling into question the Trump / Van Der Leyen agreement. 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, driven by losses in technology shares on fresh concerns over the justification for the artificial intelligence boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much 0.8%, the most since Sept. 26, with TSMC, Alibaba and SoftBank among the biggest drags. Hong Kong led losses as the market reopened after a holiday, while Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia also saw declines. Vietnam’s benchmark briefly surged as much as 3% before paring much of the gain, after FTSE Russell upgraded it to emerging market status from frontier. Elsewhere, New Zealand’s key stock index extended gains after the central bank cut interest rates more aggressively than expected and said it’s open to further reductions. Traders also await a decision in Thailand, where the central bank is expected to deliver its fourth interest rate cut of the year.

In FX, the euro falls 0.3% amid a broad dollar rally. The kiwi is one of the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps.

In rates, Treasuries bull-flattened in the early US session with long-end yields richer by around 2.5bp on the day, following similar price action in European bonds. With US front-end yields little changed, 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are flatter by 2bp-3bp; 10-year near 4.1% is 2bp lower on the day, with UK’s keeping pace and Germany’s outperforming after auctions in both markets. French bonds advanced during London morning after caretaker prime minister struck a note of optimism on the budget before starting a final day of talks to form a government, narrowing the 10-year French yield spread with Germany by 3 bps to around 83 bps. US session includes 10-year note auction and minutes of September FOMC meeting. 

In commodities, gold is up over $50, having crossed $4,000/oz for the first time earlier today. WTI crude futures rise 1% to $62.30 a barrel. 

The US economic calendar calendar, still subject to delays from the ongoing government shutdown, includes FOMC meetings minutes release at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Musalem (9:20am), Barr (9:30am, 5:45pm), Goolsbee (10am, 7:15pm) and Kashkari (3:15pm, 4:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +0.4%, CAC 40 +0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.11%
• VIX -0.3 points at 16.97
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1211.81
• euro -0.4% at $1.1613
• WTI crude +1.4% at $62.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump’s farm aid plan (which is expected to be $12-13B initially and potentially as large as $50B over time) is delayed by the shutdown. officials were said to have readied nearly USD 13bln from an internal USDA fund, although there is no final decision on how much will be used for farm aid, or when: Politico
• American farmers are in “panic” mode as Chinese soybean buyers stay on the sidelines (“we’ll see the bottom drop out if we don’t get a deal with China soon”). WSJ
• US Senate leaders were reportedly trying to lock in votes on Tuesday evening with a variety of options, including the noms bloc, privileged resolutions (maybe Canada tariff disapproval), and the duelling CRs again: Punchbowl.
• More than 250,000 federal workers missed paychecks as the shutdown entered the second week, with 2 million more at risk. Meanwhile, bond traders are hedging against a wider range of Fed outcomes amid a data blackout. BBG
• Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $20 billion, including $2 billion from Nvidia, to finance AI chips for its Colossus 2 project, people familiar said. The deal will be split between equity and debt, allowing xAI to rent Nvidia processors for five years. BBG
• China saw a spike in travel over the Golden Week holiday, but consumer spending was fairly muted. FT
• Japan's likely next premier Sanae Takaichi is already facing criticism from her ruling party's long-time coalition partner, a rift that could delay or, in an extreme scenario, jeopardize her premiership. RTRS
• EU officials see new US trade demands as potentially threatening a recent deal and risking renewed conflict, people familiar said. Washington wants talks on the EU’s legislation, raising concerns over regulatory autonomy. BBG
• Caretaker French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu struck a cautiously optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying a deal could potentially be reached on the country's budget by year-end, making the risk of a snap election more remote. RTRS
• Prolonged funding pressures in US money markets, just as bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve are dwindling, suggest the central bank may be getting closer to ending the unwinding of its massive portfolio of securities. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• EU sees new US trade demands hollowing out deal struck by US President Trump, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Earlier in the month, Trump admin reportedly sent the EU a fresh proposal for implementing “reciprocal, fair and balanced” trade.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with demand hampered following the negative handover from the US, where stocks snapped a 7-day win streak as small caps underperformed and with sentiment weighed on by AI-profitability concerns. ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in healthcare and the top-weighted financial industry were offset by underperformance in Tech and Consumer sectors. Nikkei 225 lacked conviction and oscillated around the 48,000 level amid a weaker currency and soft wages data. Hang Seng retreated on return from the holiday closure with tech stocks heavily represented in the list of worst performers, while mainland participants were still away but are set to return from the National Day Golden Week celebrations tomorrow.

Top Asian News

• RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 2.50% vs mixed views between a 25bps and 50bps cut, while the committee remains open to further reductions in the OCR as required for inflation to settle sustainably near the 2% target mid-point in the medium term. RBNZ said higher near-term inflation could prove to be more persistent and that with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to return to around the 2% target mid-point over the first half of 2026, but noted upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook. RBNZ Minutes revealed that the committee discussed the options of reducing the OCR by 25bps or by 50bps at the meeting, while it stated that the case for reducing the OCR by 50 basis points emphasised prolonged spare capacity and the associated downside risk to medium-term activity and inflation.
• Oxford Economics has brought forward their timing of the next BoJ 25bps rate hike to December from next year and have added another 25bps hike in mid-2026.
• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is expected to depart from his position, according to local reports via Mainichi newspaper.

Top European News

• French PM Lecornu to speak again at 19:00 BST
• French PM Lecornu said will present his findings to President Macron later this evening; said France must get a budget by year-end; talks so far showing a willingness to get this budget through by year-end. Sees possibility of dissolution of parliament as becoming more remote.
• French Socialist Leader Faure says the party cannot back the current budget plan, no guarantee that pension reforms will be suspended.
• UK ONS said there's an error in public finances data between Jan-Aug, citing HMRC error; VAT data error means public sector net borrowing in current and prior FY is a combined GBP 3bln lower. UK borrowing in the past five months of FY was GBP 2bln lower than previously thought.
• ECB's Rehn has warned there is a risk that inflation slows below the ECB's 2% inflation target, according to Bloomberg, citing the Karon Grilli podcast. There are downside inflation risks in sight over the next couple of years; cites EUR strength, stabilisation of wages and services inflation.
• ECB's Nagel said current monetary policy is appropriate; euro zone inflation close to 2% target, via Greek newspaper.
• ECB's Escriva said he cannot pre-empt direction of future policy move; inflation expectations are very much anchored ECB needs to be cautious. Outlook remains uncertain going forward. Wouldn't overemphasise a strong euro as a risk factor, European economy showing great deal of resilience. Trade disruptions from US are potentially inflationary. Inflation risks are very much balanced. Spanish housing supply lagging very much.
• BoE FPC Minutes: FPC decided to maintain the UK countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rate at 2% Risks associated with geopolitical tensions, global fragmentation of trade and financial markets, and pressures on sovereign debt markets remain elevated. Despite persistent material uncertainty around the global macroeconomic outlook, risky asset valuations have increased and credit spreads have compressed. There have been some notable credit defaults in the US automotive sector since the last meeting. A sudden or significant change in perceptions of Federal Reserve credibility could result in a sharp re-pricing of US dollar assets, including in US sovereign debt markets, with the potential for increased volatility, risk premia, and global spillovers.

FX

• DXY is up for a third session in a row with WTD gains thus far of 1.1%. It remains the case that the price action is not being driven by outright bullish calls on the USD but more a case of weakness elsewhere, mainly JPY and EUR, with NZD the latest of its major counterparts to take a stumble. If anything, the macro narrative surrounding the US remains a downbeat one as the government shutdown continues to drag on, delaying economic data releases and threatening a hit to domestic growth. DXY has ventured as high as 98.97 with focus on a test of the 99.0 mark; not breached since 5th August.
• EUR remains pressured vs. the USD and is just about holding onto a 1.16 handle after delving as low as 1.1607. French political turmoil remains a key part of the Eurozone macro narrative with PM Lecornu (also due to speak @ 19:00BST) set to meet with socialists, greens and communists in an attempt to form a coalition government. The likely price for Macron will be a left-wing PM, which could make the parliamentary arithmetic easier for passing a budget, given that the Socialist Party holds the most seats in the National Assembly. Aside from France, Germany saw further woeful data earlier in the session with German Industrial Orders falling well short of consensus and subsequently stoking concerns over a contraction in the domestic economy. In terms of price action, if 1.16 gives way in EUR/USD the next target comes via the 27th August low at 1.1573.
• JPY remains very much on the backfoot against the USD with USD/JPY having risen five handles since Takaichi's victory in the LDP leadership race. The move has been relentless this week given the market's view that the fallout of Takaichi will leader to a mix of looser monetary and fiscal policy. Subsequently, markets only assign a circa 25% chance of a cut this month vs. roughly 70% last week. Further reason for caution in expecting additional tightening from the BoJ was presented overnight via the August real cash earnings data, which printed a deeper-than-expected contraction. USD/JPY has climbed as high as 152.96 with focus now on a test of 153; not breached since February. If the pair begins to approach 155, given the velocity of the move, expectations of potential intervention will likely increase.
• GBP is a touch weaker vs. the USD but stronger vs. the EUR. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, in the absence of any tier 1 UK data, the macro narrative has failed to evolve beyond ongoing angst ahead of the November 26th Budget. BoE Chief Economist Pill is due to give remarks at 16:00BST. GBP/USD briefly tripped below Tuesday's low at 1.3391 before returning to a 1.34 handle.
• NZD is the laggard across the majors after the RBNZ's decision to opt for a deeper 50bps rate cut (views heading into the meeting were split between 25bps and 50bps). Additionally, the committee noted that it remains open to additional reductions. The minutes stated that the case for reducing the OCR by 50 basis points emphasised prolonged spare capacity and the associated downside risk to medium-term activity and inflation. Subsequently, has extended its descent on a 0.57 handle and hit its lowest level since April 11th.

Fixed Income

• USTs are trading firmer by a few ticks, following the positivity seen across global peers. Currently trading at the upper end of a 112-19+ to 112-25+ range. Nothing really driving sentiment today from a US perspective, but upside, which comes after the safe-haven related upside seen in the prior session. Now traders await a 10yr outing; as a reminder, the last sale was strong, receiving strong demand and a 1.3bps stop-through. FOMC Minutes (Sept) and a slew of Fed speakers will also be in focus, in a day which is void of key US data.
• Bunds are firmer today, in-fitting with the upside seen across peers. Upside today began into German data, before taking another leg higher on the release itself – an upward bias which has held throughout the morning thus far. To recap that German data in brief, Industrial Output printed well below expectations at -4.5% (exp. -1%), though the accompanying release highlighted some caveats; "The marked decrease may be explained, at least in part, by the combination of annual plant closures for holidays and production changeovers”. The upswing seen earlier in the year looks increasingly associated with US-tariff related front loading – following the data, ING suggests that there is now an increasing likelihood of another quarter of contraction for the German economy. Thereafter, the German auction was poor, but ultimately had little follow-through to price action.
• OATs are the relative outperformer today, as outgoing PM Lecornu aims to hold last-minute talks with opposition parties. To recap the situation in France, President Macron asked the PM to hold talks with the opposition parties, giving him a deadline until Wednesday evening. In a presser today, Lecornu said he will present his findings to Macron later this evening; overall, his comments leaned more positively, suggesting that the talks so far show a willingness to get this budget through by year-end. Moreover, Lecornu has suggested suspending President Macron’s pension reforms, which would be welcomed by those on the left. The outgoing PM will be speaking again at 19:00 BST. On the presser itself, some very marginal upticks were in OATs; the OAT-Bund 10yr spread has tightened from recent highs, currently trading around 83.6bps vs previous close at 86.15bps.
• Gilts are in the green alongside peers. Currently trading in a 90.69 to 90.83 range. UK press remains heavily focused on the looming Autumn Budget; most recently, the FT reported that Pimco and BlackRock have called Chancellor Reeves to build a larger buffer in the UK public finances in the November Budget to avoid years of uncertainty over tax and spending decisions. However, a factor boosting sentiment is the ONS revising down UK Government borrowing by GBP 2bln after a recent data error - which may alleviate some of the borrowing-related pressure the Chancellor faces. Today a strong 2029 auction, which saw a b/c of 2.92x had little impact on prices.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are trading slightly higher, extending on the prior day's high, despite worries of oversupply in the market with OPEC+ hiked production at its last meeting (albeit by a smaller than expected magnitude) and amid forecasts in the US that point to a record domestic oil output. WTI and Brent continued the late bid from yesterday’s session to form a peak at USD 62.45/bbl and USD 66.15/bbl, respectively, at the time of writing, before a dip towards USD 62.12/bbl and USD 65.88/bbl, respectively, as commentary from the Egypt talks remains positive. Note: EIA is continuing normal publication schedules and data collection.
• Spot gold has broken the USD 4k/oz mark, extending to a peak of USD 4039/oz and thus far remaining near ATHs. The surge in precious metals also comes as investors look to safe havens away from the dollar to protect against rising government debt burdens, geopolitical tensions and expectations of the dollar to continue lower.
• Base metals remain rangebound as China re-enters the market tomorrow. 3M LME Copper dipped to a trough of USD 10.68k/t before reversing to a peak of USD 10.78k/t as copper consolidates after a record weekly gain. Amid copper consolidation, there continues to be a growing consensus that copper still has further to go, with forecasts being revised higher towards USD 11.5-12k/t by the first half of next year due to supply disruptions and a continuing weaker dollar.
• US Private Energy Inventories Data (bbls) Crude +2.8mln (exp. +1.9mln), Distillate -1.8mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline -1.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -1.2mln.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• "There are outstanding issues among the negotiators in Egypt", according to Al Arabiya sources.
• Hamas said group positivity is needed to reach a deal, said list of hostages' names exchanged on Wednesday according to agreed numbers, according to a statement.
• "An Israeli security source told Sky News Arabia: Israel insists on not accepting any ideas outside the Trump plan", according to Sky News Arabia
• The atmosphere in the Sharm el-Sheikh negotiations appears to be "very positive", according to a correspondent at Sky News Arabia.
• Hamas leader tells AFP: "Optimism" dominates Gaza talks, via Sky News Arabia.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi denies reports that he's been in direct contact with US Envoy Witkoff including secret meetings in Doha or Muscat.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Foreign Minister says maintaining Russia's obligations under the plutonium agreement with the US is no longer acceptable, via Tass.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Oct 3 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -12.7%
• 2:00 pm: Sep 17 FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2:00 pm: Sep Federal Budget Balance, est. 50b, prior -344.79b

Central Banks 

• 9:20 am: Fed’s Musalem Gives Welcoming Remarks
• 9:30 am: Fed’s Barr Keynote at Community Banking Research Conference
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
• 3:15 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Center for Indian Country Development
• 4:30 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Hosts Fireside Chat with Senator Tina Smith
• 5:45 pm: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Community Development
• 7:15 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Payments Conference

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets struggled to gain traction yesterday, posting a risk-off move as investors grappled with political uncertainty in France and the US government shutdown. So the S&P 500 (-0.38%) lost ground from its record high on Monday, and 10yr Treasury yields (-2.9bps) also fell back. That concern was clear on several fronts, and investor jitters about France’s debt trajectory pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread to 86bps, the biggest gap since January. Moreover,  spot gold prices have just risen above the $4,000/oz mark for the first time overnight, continuing its relentless rally that’s seen it rise more than 50% so far this year.

In terms of the latest from France, there’s been little sign of any progress being made following PM Lecornu’s resignation on Monday. As a reminder, President Macron gave Lecornu a deadline of tonight to reach agreement among the different political groups, but so far at least there’s been no compromise emerging. Indeed, yesterday there was mounting speculation about another legislative election being called. For instance on Polymarket, it’s suggesting there’s a 67% chance of another election being called, rather than a new PM being appointed, which is up from 49% as we went to press yesterday. And at one point yesterday evening, it even rose as high as 85%.

When it comes to the market reaction, French bonds have continued to underperform, pushing the 10yr spread over bunds up to 86bps. So that’s very close to its peak of 88bps last December when it became clear that former PM Michel Barnier was likely to lose the confidence vote. Indeed, that 88bps level hasn’t been exceeded since 2012, back when then-ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, leading to a big confidence boost that helped spreads come down. To be fair, French equities fared relatively better yesterday, and France’s CAC 40 (+0.04%) stabilised after its Monday slump. However, banks continued to lose ground, including Société Générale (-1.88%), BNP Paribas (-1.15%) Crédit Agricole (-0.21%).

Of course, politics are very much in the spotlight elsewhere, as the US government shutdown shows no sign of ending. In terms of the latest, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said that proposals to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits for a year were “a non-starter”. Meanwhile, Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine told reporters on Monday that she was working on a plan to reopen the government, at least partially, in exchange for a deadline for a discussion on ACA subsidies. But the bigger picture is still concern about an extended shutdown that starts to have a more meaningful economic impact, and on Polymarket, there’s only a 25% chance given to the shutdown ending before October 15.

US equities struggled against that backdrop, and the S&P 500 (-0.38%) fell back after a run of 7 consecutive gains. In part, that was driven by a decline for Oracle (-2.52%), after a report from The Information said that their profit margins for cloud computing were lower than analysts’ estimates. So tech stocks struggled, and the Magnificent 7 (-1.25%) and the NASDAQ (-0.67%) also saw a decent decline. Autos (-4.37%) were the biggest laggard in the S&P, as Tesla (-4.45%) fell after their announcement of a less expensive version of their model Y car and Ford fell -6.1% after the WSJ reported that a plant fire in a New York state aluminum plant will increase costs and cause delivery disruptions. Meanwhile, the outperformers were among the more defensive sectors, with consumer staples (+0.86%) and utilities (+0.42%) both advancing.

As that was happening, Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr yield coming down -2.9bps on the day to 4.12%. That came as investors slightly dialled up the pace of Fed rate cuts over the months ahead, with 111bps priced in by December 2026, up +2.0bps on the day. Meanwhile, Fed speakers continued to strike a divergent tone. For instance, Fed Governor Miran remained dovish, saying that he was “more sanguine on the inflation outlook than a lot of other people are”. But Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari warned that “Some of the data that we’re looking at is sending some stagflationary signals”.

On that theme, the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations found that near-term inflation expectations ticked higher in September. So 1yr inflation expectations ticked up to 3.4%, which is their highest since April, and 5yr expectations moved up to 3.0%, which is their highest since February. However, it’s still an open question what will happen with the US CPI report itself on October 15, as it’s a release that will also be affected by the ongoing government shutdown, just like payrolls was last Friday.

Back in Europe, there wasn’t too much happening outside of France, with most assets seeing little change. So the STOXX 600 (-0.17%) only posted a modest decline, alongside steady moves for the DAX (+0.03%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.05%). Similarly for bond yields, there wasn’t too much movement in absolute terms, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (+0.3bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) seeing little change. There also wasn’t much data, although German factory orders underwhelmed with a -0.8% decline in August (vs. +1.2% expected).

Overnight in Asia, things have been a bit more eventful this morning, with continued movements in Japanese markets after Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader. For instance, the 10yr government bond yield (+1.4bps) has reached a post-2008 high of 1.69%, whilst the yen (-0.30%) has weakened overnight to 152.36 per dollar, its weakest level since February. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.11%) has also lost ground after a run of 4 consecutive gains. That comes as data showed wage growth was softer than expected in August, with nominal wages up +1.5% year-on-year in August (vs. +2.7% expected). And in real terms, wage growth remains negative as it has throughout 2025, at -1.4% (vs. -0.5% expected). Otherwise, there’s been a mixed equity performance in Asia, with the Hang Seng (-1.07%) losing ground, alongside gains for the CSI 300 (+0.45%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.52%) and the KOSPI (+2.70%).

Elsewhere, the main surprise has come from New Zealand overnight, where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a surprise 50bp cut, larger than the 25bp move expected, which takes their Official Cash rate down to 2.5%. So that’s led to a depreciation in the New Zealand dollar, which has weakened by -0.96% against the US dollar overnight, making it the worst-performing G10 currency. The statement said that the committee “remains open to further reductions”, and New Zealand’s 10yr yield (-4.6bps) has fallen to a 12-month low in response.

Finally, the other big headline overnight has been that spot gold prices have risen through the $4,000/oz mark for the first time. The latest moves come with treasury yields moving lower and the ongoing shutdown, but gold prices have been moving higher throughout the year, having risen by more than +50% since the end of 2024. So as it stands, it remains well on track for its strong annual increase since 1979, when the oil shock that year led to a huge surge in inflation. As a reminder, Marion on our team published an update yesterday (link here) on the future of central banks holding both gold and Bitcoin in their balance sheets by 2030.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 08:44

BMW Shares Post Sharpest Drop In Year After Profit Warning; Citi Flags China Troubles As Potentially "Irreversible"

BMW shares in Germany plunged the most in a year after the company issued a profit warning, citing weaker-than-expected sales in China and ongoing trade uncertainty between the U.S. and the European Union.

The German producer of luxury cars now forecasts its automotive margin for 2025 will be in the range of 5% to 6%, down from its previous forecast of 5% to 7%. 

Here's the snapshot of BMW's new guidance (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees automotive Ebit margin 5% to 6%, saw 5% to 7%, estimate 5.7% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees Automotive return on capital employed 8% to 10%, saw 9% to 13%

• Sees Group Earnings Before Tax Down Slightly, Saw Flat

• Sees Automotive FCF Above €2.5B, Saw Above €5B

Analysts at Bernstein said the downgraded guidance aligns with the consensus of 5.6% but called the update on soft sales in China and tariff-related costs disappointing. 

Other commentary from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

• Analyst Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan says lowering of volume and margins had been expected, as BMW was the only European auto OEM not to issue a profit warning during 2Q releases

• However, free cash flow is below expectations and could have an impact on dividends

JPMorgan (overweight)

• Narrowing of auto margins appears to be impacted equally by China volume and pricing momentum, Chinese dealer compensation, and higher global tariffs, analyst Jose Asumendi writes

• Sees most of the flagged impacts to earnings and cash flow as temporary, and BMW should be able to claw these back between 4Q25 and 1H26, which maintains confidence in buyback and dividend

• Ability to stabilize volume momentum and pricing power in China in FY26 is seen more important than tariffs in protecting the firm's longer-term competitiveness

Citi (neutral)

• Analyst Harald Hendrikse says China exposure had been a concern, and BMW China issues may be "irreversible"

• BMW, as with many other auto OEMs, appears to be guilty of providing overly optimistic guidance and seemingly has "managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"

• While free cash flow has been cut by 50%, cash return remains solid

Jefferies (buy)

• Pace of China recovery and the timing of tariff implementation had been well flagged, and have now come to pass, analyst Philippe Houchois writes

• Auto margin consensus already in the lower part of the range, with some modest downside risk

It is important to note that BMW's exposure to China is concerning, as FactSet data show it is the automaker's largest market by revenue, at 22%, compared with 19% from the U.S.

In markets, BMW shares in Germany are flat on the year, as the European auto sector sputters in the second half amid numerous issues, such as waning sales in China and an influx of Chinese brands (BYD) entering Europe, which is squeezing market share. 

The Stoxx 600 Autos & Parts Index is down 2% today. Shares are well below the 2024 peak. 

This is concerning...

. . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 08:05

Surveillance Money: The European Central Bank Accelerates The Digital Euro

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Many market participants have built long positions on euro-denominated assets, expecting a positive outcome from the German stimulus plan and Rearm Europe projects. However, betting on a stronger euro may be optimistic considering the poor track record of these government plans, the rising fiscal challenges of France and other nations, the elevated debt and enormous unfunded liabilities, as well as the imminent implementation of a central bank digital currency. There are undoubted fiscal and deficit problems in the United States, but the relative position against the euro is undeniably stronger considering all the previously mentioned factors.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has accelerated its plan for a digital euro and recently hired the top global tech companies to create the architecture. However, European banks are rightly concerned, as a central bank digital currency poses significant privacy risks as well as a grave erosion of the capacity of the banking sector to lend and perform adequately.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can be a dangerous tool for their potential risks to privacy, financial stability, and the concentration of monetary power. In the United States, the Trump administration has issued an executive order banning the use of these instruments, labelling them as “monetary tyranny”.

A CBDC is not the same as electronic money. A digital euro would give unprecedented surveillance capabilities to the central bank. Unlike current electronic payments, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) gives monetary authorities full and direct access to every transaction and savings account, eliminating financial privacy for citizens. This could allow for monitoring, controlling, or even penalising financial behaviours that central authorities may consider undesirable. Furthermore, a CBDC would eliminate the current limits in the financial system that prevent excessive money printing. Bypassing commercial banks and credit mechanisms allows central banks to instantly increase the money supply and finance government spending, eroding traditional budget controls. Removing commercial banks from the monetary system’s transmission mechanism destabilises credit creation and increases the risk of crowding out the private sector.

The main arguments in favour of a digital euro, such as efficiency and enhanced monetary policy transmission, do not withstand scrutiny. None of those benefits require a centralised currency, much less a central bank-controlled monetary monopoly. If those were the real objectives, policymakers would encourage more decentralisation and competition instead of more central planning. The goal is more state control and rapid monetary financing of government spending, not real improvements for consumers or savers.

A CBDC is the evidence that the central bank does not want to strengthen the currency by making it attractive for investors but to impose its use.

In October 2025, the ECB signed framework agreements with ten of the largest technology companies to provide the primary operational and infrastructural components for the planned digital euro, valued at over €1.1 billion. They include companies like Giesecke+Devrient (which makes offline payment solutions), Feedzai (which uses AI to find fraud), Almaviva and Fabrick (which make mobile wallet apps), and Senacor FCS (which makes it safe to share payment information). The framework agreements set the eurozone up for a possible launch of the digital euro by 2029. They cover software development, security, and fraud management.

The ECB says that these agreements are only for planning and that the currency won’t be issued until laws are passed and the next phases of the project are approved. The technology providers will help design and test several technical requirements, such as real-time fraud monitoring and offline use. None of these elements are reducing the widespread concern about privacy, control and erosion of the credit mechanisms as they exist.

European commercial banks are distressed that a digital euro could hurt their main business models, and they are right. Lawmakers in the European Parliament are worried that a retail digital euro could force people to move a lot of money from commercial banks to central bank accounts, which would hurt the sector’s private sector credit origination. The central bank would have access to all citizens’ financial data, raising privacy concerns, even if they “promise” not to use it.

Banks say that a digital euro that is legally deemed free of risk would take funds out of the private financial system, making it harder for financial institutions to lend and prioritising credit to governments over loans to families and businesses. Furthermore, compliance and infrastructure costs are enormous, regulations are unclear and vague, and privacy protections are, at best, undefined.

A CBDC could let central banks watch almost all transactions and financial decisions by citizens, taking away the privacy that comes with cash and giving the government the power to investigate, limit, or even punish users’ financial activities. Central banks can also quickly increase the money supply with a direct digital euro, without the usual limits that come from demand for credit in the banking sector. This eliminates essential limits to inflation and makes monetary policy directly subordinate to political expenditure priorities.

The CBDC will inevitably push commercial banks into a marginal role, creating a dangerous concentration of financial power in the hands of policymakers and technocrats.

The central bank’s independence and the laws guaranteeing privacy provide vague answers to all these concerns. However, centralisation is always a threat, and those laws and their alleged independence are widely questioned when the central bank has consistently bowed down to political pressure to use expansionary monetary tools for government financing. The digital euro is likely to become another tool for rapid, unrestricted fiscal expansion and the subsequent loss of the purchasing power of the currency as the limits offered by banking intermediation are eliminated.

If governments want more efficiency, technology, and a stronger currency that is globally valued, they should encourage decentralisation and competition, not the opposite.

Contracts between the ECB and major tech companies are laying the technical groundwork for a digital euro. Regrettably, privacy and independence receive no priority. The digital euro has serious systemic, economic, and ethical issues and can be used by governments with unsustainable spending and debt problems to debase the currency and use it to finance bloated government projects. European banks are concerned and rightly so. The risk of excessively loosening monetary policy and resulting in complete monetary financing of government spending is significant.

A digital euro is surveillance disguised as money, and governments will do all they can to use it as a tool for direct monetary financing of deficits. If you believe that the same policymakers and governments that have done nothing to control debt accumulation and excessive spending are going to defend the purchasing power of the currency, you are dreaming.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 07:45

Chip Equipment Makers Slide After U.S. House Panel’s Explosive Report Reveals Allied Firms Bolstered China's Chip Industry

ASML Holding NV shares tumbled in Europe after a months-long bipartisan investigation by the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), led by Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), published new findings on Tuesday afternoon showing that American, Dutch, and Japanese semiconductor equipment firms have bolstered China's chipmaking capacity, including through sales to Chinese state-owned and military-linked entities.

ASML and other semiconductor equipment makers, including Tokyo Electron Ltd, Applied Materials Inc., KLA Corp., and Lam Research Corp, "made sizeable returns selling equipment to Chinese state-owned and military-linked companies," according to the Select Committee on China. 

The CCP is using technology developed by the US and its western allies to build the chips that power its military, surveillance, and AI-driven authoritarianism.

We must not allow this critical equipment to go to our foremost adversary, or we could lose the technology arms race.

— Select Committee on China (@committeeonccp) October 7, 2025

Here are the key findings from the report:

• Massive Exposure to China: In 2024, Chinese buyers made up 44% of Tokyo Electron's revenue, 42% for Lam Research, 41% for KLA, and 36% for both ASML and Applied Materials.

• Sales to High-Risk Customers: The companies sold tools to five entities already flagged by the U.S. government for ties to China's military and intelligence services, including Huawei affiliates.

• Rapid Revenue Growth From China State-Owned Enterprises: Sales to Chinese state-owned enterprises surged from $9.5 billion in 2022 (11% of total revenue) to $26.2 billion in 2024 (27% of total revenue and 69% of China-based revenue).

• Exploiting Loopholes: As the U.S. tightened export rules, Dutch and Japanese firms ramped up shipments of slightly less advanced lithography systems to China, suggesting CCP stockpiling below restriction thresholds.

Chairman Moolenaar stated that China is "growing its profits at the expense of U.S. national security", adding, "We must not allow this critical equipment to be handed over to our foremost adversary, or America could lose the technology arms race." 

National Security Concerns:

• Military: Chips are powering the PLA's AI-driven "intelligentized" warfare systems.

• Trade: China seeks vertical integration to evade future export restrictions.

• Economic Security: Dominance in legacy and advanced chipmaking could give Beijing global leverage.

• Human Rights: AI and high-performance computing bolster China's domestic surveillance and global digital authoritarianism.

"It makes little sense to sell the CCP the chips they need to modernize their military and violate human rights. But it makes even less sense to sell them the machines and tools they need to produce those chips themselves. This bipartisan investigation reveals that the scale of these sales by Dutch, Japanese, and American firms is even more vast than we realized. Alongside our allies, we need to protect our national security and ensure we remain the world's leading innovators in SME," said Ranking Member Krishnamoorthi.

The investigation concludes: 

"The ability to design and produce semiconductors lies at the heart of the technology competition with China, and SME represents a crucial chokepoint that the U.S. and our allies currently have over China. As the U.S. government works with our allies and partners and plots the course ahead on export-control policy and related actions, this crucial chokepoint must be preserved, not squandered. The U.S. and allies only have the ability to export-control SME because we collectively are the world's leading innovators in SME. We must double down on our success."

Shares of ASML, Tokyo Electron, KLA, Applied Materials, and Lam Research all tumbled on their respective exchanges after the Select Committee on China released its report late Tuesday afternoon.

We doubt the Trump administration will launch a major crackdown on these semiconductor equipment makers just yet, given that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet later this month in South Korea. The last thing Washington needs is added turmoil in Sino-US relations before the continuation of in-person trade talks, primarily as Trump officials work to secure a deal and move things forward.

*   *   * 

Read the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) new report:

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 07:20

Gold Tops $4,000 For The First Time, And How Goldman Is Trading The Meltup From Here

Gold has just topped the $4,000/oz level for the first time ever, cementing its status as the year’s best performing asset and most intriguing story in global commodities, not to mention the most important themes across broader financial markets - one of accelerating and relentless fiat destruction coupled with what Rabobank earlier today called passing the global fiscal event horizon (read letting inflation run amok in hopes of inflating away the $330 trillion in global debt).

Spot bullion climbed as much as 1% to $4,014 an ounce...

... in a milestone moment for the metal that traded below $2,000 just two years ago, with returns that now well outstrip those for equities this century. 

Much of that upside has taken place in 2025 when gold soared more than 50% in the face of continued paper currency debasement and uncertainties over global trade and fiscal stability in the US (people also like adding "Fed independence" here but only idiots believe the Fed was actually independent, ever). At the same time, geopolitical tensions have boosted demand for haven assets, while central banks have continued to buy gold at an elevated pace

The recent re-start of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle has also been a boon for gold, which benefits any time the Fed injects liquidity into the system like now. Investors have responded by piling into exchange-traded funds, with bullion-backed ETFs seeing their biggest monthly inflow in more than three years in September according to Bloomberg, something we predicted well ahead of time.

Think the move in gold is notable? Just wait until the ETFs start chasing pic.twitter.com/SoOXEd2Hdz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2025

As Bloomberg notes, jumps in the price of gold typically track broader economic and political stresses. The metal breached $1,000 an ounce in the aftermath of the financial crisis, $2,000 during the Covid pandemic, and $3,000 as the Trump administration’s tariff plans washed over global markets in March.

“Gold breaking $4,000 isn’t just about fear — it’s about reallocation,” said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets Pte. “With economic data on pause and rate cuts on the horizon, real yields are easing, while AI-heavy equities look stretched. Central banks built the base for this rally, but retail and ETFs are now driving the next leg.”

Gold’s rally is on pace for its best annual performance since the 1970s, a decade when soaring inflation and the end of the gold standard sparked a 15-fold rally of the precious metal. At that time, Richard Nixon pressured the Fed to lower rates. The central bank under then-chair Arthur Burns was clearly not independent and some speculate that a similar suppression of monetary policy may emerge in the next year when Powell is gone and replaced with a Fed chair of Trump's choosing.

Ahead of the historic breakout, Goldman this morning raised its 2026E gold price forecast from 4,300 to 4,900, a move which the bank believes will still be supported by:

• Central bank buying to average 80/70 tonnes in 2025/2026 (contributing 19pp by Dec26).
• Western ETF holdings to rise as the Fed cuts the funds rate by 100bp mid-2026 (contributing 5pp by Dec26).
• Speculative positioning to gradually normalize (contributing -1pp by Dec26)

Elevated central bank buying is a “structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal,” Lina Thomas, Goldman commodities strategist wrote in a September note. “Our base case assumes that the current trend in [central bank] accumulation continues for another three years."

We have been hammering the table for years on gold's disconnect and relentless meltup ever since the Biden admin weaponized the dollar after the Ukraine war, which we now know was meant to cover up the local crimes of the Biden crime family.

Meanwhile, a staggering gap has opened between gold spot, net speculative positions, and total gold ETF holdings. The (physical) east is all in, the (paper) west refuses to wake up pic.twitter.com/InWzVMYacb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 4, 2025

Goldman also sees risks skewed to the upside, as private sector diversification may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate.

As a result, Goldman's trading desk has proposed a trade to take advantage of the coming meltup with 10x leverage. 

How To Trade (from GS Sales & Trading)

Buy a 6m XAU Binary call with 10x Payoff (indic 4700 strike, off spot 3960) 

• Limited Loss (Given lack of COT data or Economic Data, significant run in recent weeks leaves room for a pull-back so we prefer to trade through optionality than one-delta)
• Exposure to Upside Convexity (6m Gold Vol is at 17v, 3v off the April tariff highs while 10d callskew is in the 20th percentile vs the precious 10 years, which makes wingy upside relatively cheap).
• No knock-outs (due to the cheap callskew, price knock-outs are not especially cheapening and sell upside tails. This ensures maximum exposure to price rallies).

Goldman's full gold report available here for pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 07:15

Greece Still Has The Highest Debt-To-GDP In Europe; Bulgaria The Lowest

As European countries pour billions into defense spending, their debt piles are expanding—raising questions of national fiscal stability.

In France, a rising debt ratio led Fitch to downgrade its credit rating in September. The country has faced ongoing political turmoil as the country’s debt supply recently hit a record $4 trillion.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows European Union debt-to-GDP by country, based on data from Eurostat.

The State of European Union Debt-to-GDP in 2025

Below, we show general government gross debt as a percentage of GDP as of Q1 2025 in the EU:

While Greece’s economy is thriving in 2025—supported by tourism, real estate, and shipping sectors—its debt situation continues to rank as the worst in the EU.

However, its debt-to-GDP ratio has steadily fallen in recent years, from 180% in 2022 to 153% today. Given its recent economic momentum, the country launched an innovation and infrastructure fund with BlackRock designed to attract $1.2 billion in foreign investment.

Italy holds the second-highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU, at 138%. However, the country has made notable progress in narrowing its deficit, cutting it from 7.2% of GDP in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024 on the back of strong tax revenues. Like Greece, its debt levels have been gradually trending downward.

By contrast, debt is rising in France, where it stands at 114% of GDP. In efforts to combat its deteriorating fiscal situation, the French government has raised the retirement age, and proposed cutting two national holidays—stoking public outrage.

Meanwhile, Germany’s debt ratio of 62% falls significantly below the EU average of 82%. At the same time, the country has eased its fiscal rules with massive defense spending, causing debt levels to rise.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on debt to GDP by country worldwide.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 06:55

US Bitcoin Reserve Funding "Can Start Anytime" - Senator Lummis

Authored by Brian Quarmby via CoinTelegraph.com,

Crypto-friendly US Senator Cynthia Lummis has confirmed that acquiring funds for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) can “start anytime” now, though legislative red tape is holding it back. 

In an X post on Monday, Lummis said that while it remains a “slog” on the legislative side of things, thanks to “President Trump, the acquisition of funds for an SBR can start anytime.” 

Lummis made the comments in response to a post from ProCap BTC chief investment officer Jeff Park, who shared a video of himself and Bitcoin bull Anthony Pompliano discussing the potential of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

Senator Lummis’ latest comments on the SBR. Source: Cynthia Lummis

Park was hypothesizing what would happen if the government were able to utilize its $1 trillion worth of paper gains from gold to reinvest into Bitcoin. 

He argued that, given the government’s approximately $37.88 trillion in fiscal debt, utilizing the $1 trillion in paper gains would be a relatively minor risk in the grand scheme of things. 

“And so if there’s a way to unlock the ability to build leverage on the paper gains of gold to take a call option on Bitcoin. There’s something incredible here that could happen… If you own Bitcoin, and you assume that it’s going to go up by 12% a year, you’ll make a 30x in 30 years,” he said.

“It’s actually going to be able to cover most of the fiscal deficit hole that exists.”

In response, Lummis stated that this was “a fabulous articulation of why the SBR and passing the BITCOIN Act makes so much sense.”

It is not yet clear exactly how capital will be raised for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. According to the official government fact sheet, the reserve will initially be “capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the Department of Treasury” that was seized through civil or criminal proceedings. 

Then it states that additional BTC may be acquired via budget-neutral avenues that “impose no incremental costs on American taxpayers.”

Government Bitcoin buys around the corner? 

It has been seven months since President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish the Bitcoin reserve. However, the concrete formulation of the reserve is yet to be confirmed, resulting in a fair amount of speculation and debate around the exact launch timeline. 

Some, however, anticipate that the government may announce some BTC purchases in the near future. Speaking with CNBC over the weekend, Anthony Pompliano said there are three key things the market is keeping an eye on right now: 

“The first is that the US government at some point is gonna announce that they are buying Bitcoin. Creating the initial kinda strategic reserve and sitting the Bitcoin we already had there was good. But that’s kinda not the main dish.” 

“The main dish is when they start buying, and I think that will happen at some point.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 06:30

Goldman: $10,000 Is New Price Floor For Copper 

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange are near record highs as traders weighed supply disruptions at major mines, the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and demand outlooks tied to power grid upgrades and AI-related growth. 

Focusing on copper prices, a team of Goldman analysts led by Eoin Dinsmore told clients on Monday that the industrial metal is entering a new structural price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton.

Dinsmore's thesis is clear:

We believe that the copper price is resetting in a new range of $10,000-$11,000/t - a range copper has never held for longer than two months - as resource constraints and structural demand growth from critical sectors set a new price floor from 2026 onward. We lift our 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500/t (from $10,000) following the Grasberg outage, also supported by U.S. Fed rate cuts and further U.S. dollar depreciation, and maintain our $10,750/t 2027 forecast.

While we are bullish on copper prices vs. historical averages and the 2027 forwards, we believe that there is a ceiling at $11,000 for the coming two years. The copper market is currently in a modest surplus, which we expect to be maintained in 2026, even after a significant drop in global refined output following recent mine disruptions. We do not see a deficit materialising until the end of the decade.

The commodity analyst outlined three reasons why copper should trade in the $10,000 to $11,000 range through 2027:

1. Mine supply is constrained, but enough to meet demand for now: Multiple recent mine incidents highlight the growing structural challenges in copper mining as copper mines get deeper, grades get lower and ore gets harder, requiring greater investment. This caps our mine supply growth forecast at an annual average of +1.5% YoY in 2025-30. While high copper prices are already delivering investment in China, DR Congo, Russia, and Uzbekistan, which we believe will be enough to meet demand over the next two years, a price above $10,500 is needed to incentivise investment in brownfield South American mines, required to balance the market later in the decade. Meanwhile, we expect a pick up in copper scrap use to help delay any deficit in the copper market until later in the decade, likely limiting copper price upside beyond $11,000/t in 2026/27.

2. Structural demand growth from critical sectors moderated by accelerated substitution in cyclical sectors: We forecast global refined copper demand growth to moderate from +2.8% YoY in 2025 to an average of +2.1% YoY in 2026-2030. We continue to see grid and power infrastructure driving over 60% of the growth in our forecasts, with additional direct boosts from defense, electric vehicles, wind and datacenters. Importantly, we see investment in aging Western power grids as a national security priority, due to its critical role in AI, defense and energy security. However, we also forecast accelerated copper to aluminium substitution in cyclical sectors, which slows copper demand growth and keeps the market in small surplus. This substitution contributes to copper pricing into a higher range, rather than an open-ended rally.

3. Strategic Stockpiling: Given copper's dual nature of constrained resources and essential use in critical sectors, it is a compelling commodity to strategically stockpile. This means that even as our balance implies that the market will remain in a small surplus over the coming years (vs our leaning towards a small deficit previously), this inventory build is likely to be at least partly absorbed by strategic stockpiles, limiting the visible stockbuild and downward pressure on exchange prices.

Dinsmore expects prices to remain above $10,000 for the remainder of this year, primarily due to Freeport-McMoRan's force majeure declaration on contracted supplies from its giant Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the second-largest source of the metal, following a mudslide last month. 

At the time, Goldman's commodity specialist, James McGeoch, called the event a "black swan event" (see the report)...

Dinsmore noted, "The global copper market to move into deficit by the end of the decade." 

Copper Price Already Near Top End of Goldman's Price Anchors

When to Expect the Deficit

The note includes tons of charts and an in-depth analysis of global copper markets, outlining what to expect through the end of the decade. ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full report in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 04:15

Egypt Wants US Troops In Gaza As Part Of Peacekeeping Mission

Via Middle East Eye

US troops will need to deploy to Gaza if the international force of peacekeepers that President Donald Trump's ceasefire plan envisions is to become a reality, Egypt has told the US, according to two Arab officials who spoke to Middle East Eye.

Senior Egyptian officials told their US counterparts that they want the International Stabilization Force outlined in Trump’s 20-point peace plan to be modelled on the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) that deployed to Sinai after the peninsula was returned to Egypt from Israel in 1982. The US has led the MFO since its inception, supplying hundreds of troops as a buffer and reassurance force.

Via AFP

Trump's plan envisions the international force made up of Arab and Muslim states securing Gaza as Israel withdraws. Egypt, the only Arab country that borders Gaza, is set to play a key role in the force, as it is home to the Arab world's largest army.

Egyptian military intelligence also has ties with Hamas's armed wing, the Qassam Brigades.  MEE reported earlier that Hamas wants Turkish troops to deploy to Gaza to guarantee the ceasefire, but the two Arab officials and a former senior US official said Israel objects to a Turkish presence.

The Egyptian request, which has been communicated publicly and privately, is likely to test Trump's appetite for a deeper military footprint in Gaza. One former senior US official familiar with the request said it was a nonstarter.

However, there are some signs that the US is preparing for a bigger military footprint in Israel's neighborhood already. US military personnel at the Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar have shifted to Jordan for the coming months, one Arab official told MEE.

The military personnel belong to risk and security assessment teams, effectively managing security at the US military base. Current and former US and Arab officials told MEE that the move could signal the US is preparing for more troops to arrive in the region. Trump's plan has listed Jordan and Egypt as key security partners in Gaza.

The deployment of US troops to Gaza is just one of many sensitive points that negotiators meeting in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh this week have to address to end Israel's war on Gaza as it approaches the two-year mark.

Arab and Muslim countries were angered when Trump unveiled his plan last week. Although he recognized two of their key demands - a permanent end to the war and no forced displacement from Gaza - he did not commit to a Palestinian state and left room for Israel to stall its withdrawal from Gaza.

Egypt was especially upset that Trump downplayed the role of the Palestinian Authority, MEE reported. But the US's Arab and Muslim partners are backing the plan. Trump prides himself as a negotiator, and analysts and diplomats say much is still up for discussion this week in Egypt.

'Skin in the game'

Trump called on Sunday for mediators to "move fast" to reach an agreement after he welcomed Hamas's response to his proposal as a pathway for a deal. Hamas, Egyptian, Qatari, Turkish, US and Israeli officials are participating in the talks, Arab officials told MEE.

The plan calls for the quick release of all remaining Israeli captives in Gaza - roughly 20 are still alive - in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas and Israel have orchestrated prisoner exchanges before, including during a ceasefire in January that collapsed two months later when Israel unilaterally resumed attacking Gaza. If all goes according to plan this time, the first phase of the deal, the captives' release, would be over in 72 hours, although analysts warn it could take longer for Hamas to locate the living and dead captives.

One central sticking point in the talks is the timeline for Israel's withdrawal. Trump's plan provides no specific deadline and leaves Israel space to remain deep inside Gaza.

Egypt, Qatar and Turkey are pressing for a complete withdrawal, Arab officials told MEE. Hamas is expected to insist that Israel withdraw to a narrow buffer zone around Gaza before fully leaving the enclave. 

Arab leaders whose armies are expected to partake in the international peacekeeping force don't want their soldiers rubbing shoulders with Israelis among the ruins of Gaza. Nor do they want to be seen as providing cover for Israel if it unilaterally resumes attacking Gaza.

Egypt, which is likely to contribute the bulk of soldiers, is especially worried, Arab officials told MEE. "For the Egyptians, a US presence would represent an actual commitment to the plan in real terms; troops and funds. It would be viewed as skin in the game, a tangible embodiment of US support, and, potentially, an incentive for Israel to curb violations," Mirette Mabrouk, who is currently in Cairo and heads the Middle East Institute's Egypt programme, told MEE.

"Although the attack on Doha proved that US presence is no automatic safeguard against Israeli aggression," she added, referring to Israel's attack on the Qatari capital in September.

Egyptian intelligence has been in talks with Hamas's armed wing about disarmament, which is stipulated under Trump's plan. It has been a source of growing tension between the Palestinian movement and Cairo. One of the Arab officials familiar with the talks told MEE it was "difficult".

Several options have been reported, including Hamas turning its arms directly over to Egypt and storing them. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas wants to keep its small arms, which it considers defensive. 

Riccardo Fabiani, the North Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, told MEE that in addition to "containing Israel", Egypt wants US troops on the ground to be able to verify the handover of weapons - which Israel could use as a provocation to restart attacks. "They want the US to participate in whatever disarmament process is going to take place," he said.

"I don't see this administration particularly interested in having permanent troops involved in peacekeeping. They prefer bombing a place and getting out," he said.

Trump's plan rules out Hamas governing Gaza. It calls for a "Board of Peace" led by Trump to govern the enclave alongside Palestinian technocrats.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 03:30

Close To Chaos? Where People Worry About Unrest

More than a third of respondent in Mexico, South Africa and Brazil said that they were worried about riots or violent protests happening in their country.

You will find more infographics at Statista

This is according to a survey carried about by Statista Consumer Insights in 2024 and 2025.

In India and Germany, the share of those worried about a scenario like that stood at 29 percent each, ahead of the bulk of other nations in the 21-country survey. In both countries, the share of concerned individuals has increased since the question was first asked in 2022 and 2023.

In most other countries in the survey group, around a quarter of respondents indicated they were worried about unrest. This group of countries includes the United States as well as Austria, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. Since 2022/23, worry in the United States as actually decreased, while it increased - at least slightly - in most other countries. Around a fifth of people worried about violent protests in the United Kingdom, up a significant 5 percentage points. A similar amount said they were concerned in Italy, Poland and Finland, with those shares also growing.

Below-average worry about the topic could be observed in Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and finally China, where only 6 percent most recently said they were concerned.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 02:45

The BritCard Digital ID PsyOp

Authored by Iain Smith via Off-Guardian.org,

Apparently, in order to be able to work in the UK, we will all be forced to adopt digital ID—the mandatory so-called BritCard. There is absolutely no public appetite for this, as the more than 2 million and rising (at the time of writing) signatures to the online petition to stop it demonstrates.

Of course, online petitions don’t make any difference to governments, but at least they illustrate to us that government propaganda, such as the IPSOS poll that alleges 57% of the UK public want digital ID, is garbage. Though given IPSOS enormous number of government contracts, including its contract to assist in the design of the BritCard, willingly fulfilling its propaganda role is understandable.

Proudly announcing mandatory digital ID at the Global Progress Action Summit, Keir Starmer said:

Let me spell that out. You will not be able to work in the United Kingdom if you do not have Digital ID. It’s as simple as that.

This all sounds very “authoritarian,” but if we decide we are not going to adopt the BritCard, and if the UK government insists on enforcing it, the entire UK economy and the government will collapse. If government issued digital ID is “mandatory” to work in the UK, and millions, perhaps tens of millions, of people decide they are not going along with it, then that means mass unemployment, a vanishing government tax take, and economic destruction on a cataclysmic scale.

The government can be as tough as it likes, but if we tell it to do one there is sweet FA it can do about it. The government only has power while we comply, if we don’t it has absolutely none at all. It’s a paper tiger. We have all the power, we just have to realise it by not complying.

Clearly, there is no need for a UK digital ID. In a moment of stupidity, the UK Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, Lisa Nandy, told the BBC that the national ID card would be the same as a national insurance number (NIN), insofar as you won’t be able to work without one. It didn’t occur to her that having a NIN is indeed a prerequisite for employment in the UK and, therefore, no one needs a government digital ID. Assuming, that is, the government’s claimed justification is remotely plausible. Which it isn’t

The government has exploited illegal immigration as an excuse to supposedly introduce digital ID:

[Digital ID] will [. . .] be required for right to work checks to stop those with no right to be in the country from finding work. This is to send a clear message that if you come here illegally, you will not be able to work, deterring people from making dangerous journeys.

There are few glaring problems with this ludicrous argument.

For a start, you can’t get a NIN if you are in the UK illegally. Those who employ people illegally couldn’t care less whether you have a NIN or not, just as they won’t care if a slave labourer has a BritCard or not. No “message” will be sent because those who come here illegally do so knowing it is illegal and the BritCard won’t make any difference to them either. Nor will trafficked illegal immigrants be deterred because they don’t have a choice and the traffickers show no signs of giving up on their multi-billion dollar industry which, in any event, digital ID will do nothing to hinder.

In addition, if they receive leave to remain, refugees and asylum seekers can secure a NIN for themselves and work here legally. So, all in all, the government’s argument for introducing digital ID is total codswallop.

It is obvious that tackling illegal migration has nothing to do with the UK governments alleged hope of foisting digital ID on us all. It is equally obvious that the restricting the right to work is not really the purpose of digital ID:

A new digital ID scheme will make it easier for people across the UK to use vital government services. The roll-out will in time make it easier to apply for government and private sector services, such as helping renters to quickly prove their identity to landlords, improving access to welfare and other benefits, and making it easier for parents to apply for free childcare.

So, “in time,” we will supposedly need digital ID to access services like child care, to receive “welfare and other benefits,” and to rent a home. But that’s not all. We will also need it to access “private sector services” such as those offered by banks. You’ll need your government approved digital ID to buy a home too, in time.

In short, a state issued digital ID gives the state total control over your life and, to a great extent, the economy.

Currently migrants given leave to stay, either permanently or temporarily, can use government issued biometric ID—digital identity that contains biological information—to “open a bank account.” Starmer’s biometric BritCard, and all digital ID, merely extends that government mandated “privilege” to the rest of us.

Starmer is a globalist member of numerous policy think tanks, including the Trilateral Commission. The policy to enforce digital ID on everyone has nothing to do with his government. That Policy emanated from globalist think tanks, like the Trilateral Commission, and was set by the United Nations as SDG 16.9 in 2016.

Starmer and the UK government are seemingly doing what they are told. But something doesn’t quite add up.

The global digital ID systems and networks that have been put into place, to date, do not require the issuance of any single biometric digital ID card or app. Rather, a smorgasbord of “vendor agnostic” digital ID products can be made “interoperable” and share data in a uniform machine readable format. If the SDG 16.9 plans for data interoperability proceed as envisaged, the data from your UK biometric digital ID driving licence—which you probably already possess—and your biometric digital ID passport, for instance, could be linked to all your purchases through your interoperable digital bank card.

The data from all these “vendor agnostic” digital ID products, because they each use interoperable machine readable data exchange formats, can then be hoovered up to the global digital ID database. At present, the World Bank’s ID4D looks like the most likely candidate. The UN’s World Bank has set the interoperability data standards that the digital ID database requires and has divided them into five categories:

Major standards to facilitate the technical quality and interoperability of the ID system related to: (1) biometrics, (2) cards, (3) 2D barcodes, (4) digital signatures, and (5) federation protocols.

For example, the Indian government’s Aadhaar unique digital ID card (or app) uses “the ISO/IEC 19794 Series and ISO/IEC 19785 for biometric data interchange formats.” These are approved World Bank ID4D interoperability standards. In this case, Indian’s biometric data can be exported in a “machine-readable format enabling ease of import into” the SDG 16.9 compliant global ID4D database.

In July 2022, the ID2020 Alliance—the group tasked with fulfilling SDG 16.9—appointed Clive Smith as its new executive director. Clive was the former Director of Global Operations at the United Nations Foundation Mobile Health Alliance. Speaking about his new role, Clive said:

ID2020 can play a pivotal role, helping ensure that the appropriately interoperable solutions – and related financial, legal, and regulatory guardrails – are in place, and become the foundation of digital ID in the decades ahead.

The interoperable digital infrastructure is the key to constructing our digital IDs from interlinked vendor agnostic digital ID products. In effect, our digital ID can be manufactured by the system, as we interact with it, without us having any one, designated digital ID app or card. That is the point of digital ID-linked product interoperability.

The UK government already has an SDG 16.9 compatible biometric digital ID platform called One Login. It is part of the Government Digital Service (GDS) and provides users with access to government services via their GOV.UK digital wallets. The system is hopelessly insecure and the risk of identity theft is high, but all digital ID systems are prone to criminal misuse, so there’s nothing unusual there.

In India R.S. Sharma, Chairman of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), decided to demonstrate that claims of digital ID security flaws were all “conspiracy theories.” He published his Aadhaar number on, what was then, Twitter to prove the system was secure. Within hours, hackers had released his mobile number(s), personal Gmail and Yahoo addresses, his home address, date of birth, frequent flyer number, private photographs and bank account details to which—for a laugh but making their point—they sent some small payments.

Nevertheless, the interoperable digital ID infrastructure that is being installed globally means there are no technological reasons to account for the UK government’s attempt to introduce an extremely unpopular single, government issued digital ID. Especially seeing as it already has a digital ID system (One Login) that uses existing ID, such as driving licenses, to essentially achieve the same thing that the BritCard is supposed to deliver.

Compounding this unfathomable government strategy, the British have a long history of objecting to government issued ID. To expect us to go along with it this time is nonsensical.

Government issued ID was introduced in the First World War and abolished by public demand in 1919. They were reintroduced shortly after the start of the Second World War and withdrawn in 1952, again due to public opposition. The Blair Labour government tried again in 2010 and, though it was cost and election defeat, rather than unpopularity, that saw that attempt fail, government issued ID was widely opposed nonetheless. The government knows such national ID projects are extremely unpopular and it must have anticipated a political backlash.

Not only that, Starmer’s government decided to formally announce another government issued ID at a time when its popularity has never been lower. Notably, leading voices in the UK Reform Party have already taken a stance against the BritCard, as have those in the Conservative Party. Nor does the announcement do anything to assuage Labour’s alleged concerns about the so-called “far-right” as its supposed leaders have also come out against the BritCard move.

There is no realistic prospect that the government is going to get people to adopt its ridiculous BritCards. From Starmer’s and the Labour government’s perspective, this looks like political suicide. What’s going on?

After its initial leaky debacle, the contract for the cyber security for the government’s One Login was given to the US multinational Accenture led by Julie Sweet who sits on the Board of Trustees for both the World Economic Forum and the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Accenture is partnered with Peter Thiel’s Palantir and Thiel sits on the Steering Committee of the Bilderberg Group. Both Accenture and Palantir are strategic partners with Larry Elllison’s Oracle. Ellison, like Thiel, is currently highly influential within the US government. All three companies have close links to the intelligence agencies, but Palantir’s and Oracle’s are very close.

Palantir is deeply embedded within the UK government and its defence and health sector. Oracle is similarly central to the digital transformation of UK government and, as we have just discussed, so is Accenture. These US Tech giants, led by people close to the centre of global power, all want to see digital ID succeed in the UK and fully back UN SDG 16.9.

Ellison is known to be a close associate of former UK prime minister Tony Blair and reportedly the money-man behind the Tony Blair Institute (TBI). The TBI has been pushing for digital ID in the UK for years. But what is digital ID really about for think tanks and policy setting groups like the Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group and the TBI?

It is all about using the harvested data to control our lives. Lest you have any doubt, in September 2024, Ellison told Oracle investors:

Citizens will be on their best behavior because we are constantly recording and reporting everything that’s going on.

In February this year, the TBI published a blueprint for what it calls the UK’s National Data Library (NDL). The TBI wants the data from all corners of the society and the economy, all public and private services, all industry, all business and all of us, to be stored in one unified central database: the NDL.

However, in order for the NDL to work, the TBI noted:

Harmonised personal identifiers, using a consistent number to refer to the same entity in different places, should be introduced to improve interoperability. [. . .] None of this would be possible without efforts to improve the broader data infrastructure, including efforts around interoperability and digital identity. [. . .] This allows the NDL to focus on closing a critical gap by addressing the legal, operational and structural barriers that prevent effective data use. Interoperability and even linkage efforts, welcome as they are, do not guarantee access or usability.

Clearly, the TBI is acutely aware of the interoperability that lies at the heart of the global digital transformation. The One Login GDS system is prepped for the completion of the necessary digital infrastructure. Digital ID is the linchpin that sets the entire system in motion. Therefore, it is essential to the government and its partners—Palantir, Accenture, and Oracle, etc.,—that we can somehow be cajoled into accepting digital ID.

Starmer’s BritCard is not intended to convince us to adopt digital ID. Its announcement is spectacularly ill-timed, the arguments offered to justify it are absurd and there is no reason to think the British public will ever buy in to it.

It is not unreasonable to speculate that BritCard is a bait-and-switch psyop.

The BritCard has stimulated debate about digital ID. I’m sure Newsnight and Question Time will cover it. We can argue the pros and cons and consider if we want digital ID. Then we will either accept or reject the BritCard, imagining that it is the totality of digital ID, and the issue will be resolved. Which I think is the point of BritCard.

The most likely outcome is that as anger is stoked and resentment swells, the completely unnecessary BritCard will be flung out along with the Labour government: again.

The door will then be open for the political saviours, be they the Tories, Reform or whomever, to come to power promising never to subject us to any more of these idiotic government issued ID schemes.

However, to keep pace with the digital revolution, our digital infrastructure, our cards and licenses, will need to be upgraded to facilitate the necessary interoperability.

Voila! We will rejoice in our victory and accept digital ID without even knowing it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/08/2025 - 02:00

The Left's Political Playbook: Redefining Words And Standards

Authored by Thaddeus McCotter via American Greatness,

Last week, I wrote about the left’s playbook of projection and deflection, wherein they ascribe their own sins unto their victims. This week, let us examine how the left tries to advance its radical agenda by redefining words and standards.

Today’s case study: free speech.

While the First Amendment of the United States Constitution recognizes and protects the God-given right to free speech, there has always been a reasonable, popular consensus that there exists material not suitable for young, impressionable children and that, alternatively, for adult consumption, cannot be banned. The left is endeavoring to rend this consensus.

Presently, the left equates the removal of age-inappropriate materials that sexualize children from public schools as “censorship.” As readers of last week’s article will recognize, such is a deflection and a projection from the fact the left has for years been banning, eliminating, and re-editing all manner of media, usually by “dead white European males” (though certainly not exclusively), from curricula for being contrary to the dictates of their “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” (DEI) secular religion.

While one might expect leftists to recognize their own mendacity and hypocrisy, one would be sorely mistaken. For the left is both benighted and buoyed in their self-delusions by their ideology, one that has engaged in a long-running war on language. Believing that redefining the language will refashion reality, the left weaponizes the language to advance its political agenda, providing a word with a meaning antithetical to its original popular understanding—often in combination with replacing an existing objective standard with a new subjective one. These weaponized, twisted terms and standards are designed to deceive both the general population and the left itself—in short, turning their black hats into white hats in the distorted funhouse mirror of their minds.

Building upon Steven Soukup’s exceptional American Greatness piece, “The Left’s Repressive Tolerance,” let us ponder how the left has come to redefine this term.

In his 1965 essay “Repressive Tolerance,” Herbert Marcuse brazenly proclaimed the left’s plan to twist the language and the concept of objective standards for free speech beyond all recognition. Bluntly, in the hands of Marcuse and his fellow leftists, “day is night as dark is light and wrong is right,” and tolerance is perverted into intolerance.

Under the constitution, tolerance is tantamount to “live and let live.” Regarding free speech, in sum, one need not agree or even listen to another but must tolerate the other’s right to speak. The more free speech the merrier, as it were—unless one were a leftist who, unable to convince the public of the rectitude of their cause (because it is non-existent), believes that stifling other views will allow their genius to persuade the populace to support their radical agenda.

Thus, the objective standard of content neutrality undergirding tolerance for all manner of free speech must be jettisoned, and a subjective standard must be substituted (though duplicitously not expressed in such honest terms). For, as Marcuse asserts, “This sort of tolerance strengthens the tyranny of the majority against which authentic liberals protested.”

How so?

“The political locus of tolerance has changed: while it is more or less quietly and constitutionally withdrawn from the opposition, it is made compulsory behavior with respect to established policies. Tolerance is turned from an active into a passive state, from practice to non-practice: laissez-faire the constituted authorities. It is the people who tolerate the government, which in turn tolerates opposition within the framework determined by the constituted authorities.”

Cutting through the cant, Marcuse and his fellow travelers disliked modern society; ergo, the objective standard is out of the Overton window and his subjective assessment will now dictate your right to free speech. Why?

First, the left thinks other people are problematic morons:

“The toleration of the systematic moronization of children and adults alike by publicity and propaganda…are not distortions and aberrations, they are the essence of a system which fosters tolerance as a means for perpetuating the struggle for existence and suppressing the alternatives.” [Emphasis mine.]

Aye, there’s the rub and reason number two: Marcuse and the left are upset that their voices are being ignored—granted, they are being ignored by sane people, but that is lost upon the left. Ergo, folks need to shut up and listen and submit to the left’s demands, lest a feckless, fascist-abetting humanity squander the opportunity to improve their lot in life:

“…promulgated, practiced, and defended by democratic and authoritarian governments alike, and the people subjected to these governments are educated to sustain such practices as necessary for the preservation of the status quo. Tolerance is extended to policies, conditions, and modes of behavior which should not be tolerated because they are impeding, if not destroying, the chances of creating an existence without fear and misery.”

Per Marcuse and his ilk, your God-given right to free speech must be repressed so you can be herded into an existence without fear and misery, like the workers’ paradise of the Soviet Union or Pol Pot’s Cambodia.

Patently, Marcuse’s “repressive tolerance” is tantamount to “perverting tolerance.” Non-leftist thought will not be tolerated and will be silenced (i.e., “repressed”). This is Marcuse channeling his inner totalitarian to put his own verbose sophist pillows on the threadbare intellectual chair of Rousseau’s civil religion:

“The conclusion reached is that the realization of the objective of tolerance would call for intolerance toward prevailing policies, attitudes, opinions, and the extension of tolerance to policies, attitudes, and opinions which are outlawed or suppressed. In other words, today tolerance appears again as what it was in its origins, at the beginning of the modern period—a partisan goal, a subversive liberating notion and practice. Conversely, what is proclaimed and practiced as tolerance today is in many of its most effective manifestations, serving the cause of oppression.”

Oh, and the reward for being “forced to be free?” As if regressing from corrupting civilization into noble savagery and socialism progressing into communism, repressive tolerance will one day magically morph into “liberating tolerance,” whereby everyone in the world will agree with Marcuse and the left, so everyone will have free speech and tolerance again. No, really….

For the record, Marcuse is up front about why he feels entitled to destroy your rights:

“The author is fully aware that, at present, no power, no authority, no government exists which would translate liberating tolerance into practice, but he believes that it is the task and duty of the intellectual to recall and preserve historical possibilities which seem to have become utopian possibilities—that it is his task to break the concreteness of oppression in order to open the mental space in which this society can be recognized as what it is and does.”

Succinctly, this academic believes one can only open a mind by closing it first. Is there any greater explanation and, yes, indictment of modern academe? How Allan Bloom was so prescient back in the day….

So, here, in all its hubristic duplicity and imbecility, is the left’s stance on free speech: projection and deflection; substituting a subjective standard for an objective standard; the perversion of the term “tolerance”; and the rationalization for not only censorship but also cancel culture and worse for dissenting opinions and people. Frankly, Marcuse and the left’s idea of tolerance is intolerance—shut up and listen, or else.

Now, you can see why the left calls non-leftists “fascists” and “Nazis” and why any dissenting opinions from leftist doctrine are deemed “hate speech.” Simply, the left aims to repress your right to free speech to control the public discourse and agenda, and feels justified in so doing because you are a cog in the regime’s machine.

Perhaps, then, it is also because this diabolical distortion of “tolerance” and the subjective standard, which both allows its twisting into “intolerance” and rationalizes away the repression required to enforce it, that renders leftists susceptible to “justifying” and indulging their “rage” with violence?

While there are more strategies and tactics to be explored within its pages, suffice it to once more note that, if unchecked, the postmodern left’s playbook could become Western civilization’s suicide note.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 23:25

Trump Signs Order Approving 211-Mile Mining Road In Alaska

President Donald Trump issued a presidential memo on Oct. 6 ordering the approval of a proposed 211-mile industrial road in Alaska to allow access to copper and cobalt minerals.

Trump had initially approved the Ambler Road project during his first term, but the Biden administration blocked it after taking office, citing the need to protect “a pristine area that Alaska Native communities rely on.”

In a statement, Trump approved the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority’s (AIDEA) appeal of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) decision under the Biden administration last year.

As Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, Trump stated that the road, which will stretch from the Dalton Highway to Alaska’s remote Ambler Mining District, would provide transportation access to an area rich in mineral deposits.

“The decision finds that the road is in the public interest given our need for access to domestic critical minerals, and there is no economically feasible and prudent alternative route,” the White House said in a fact sheet.

The president has instructed the BLM, National Park Service, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to reissue the required permits to enable construction of the road, according to the fact sheet.

“I signed this years ago, and Biden unsigned it for me,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office.

“This is something that should’ve been long operating and making billions of dollars for our country and supplying a lot of energy and minerals.”

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said that building the Ambler Road in Alaska will enable access to copper, lead, zinc, gold, gallium, and other minerals the country needs “to win the AI arms race against China.”

“We’ve got to get back in the mining business. China controls 85 to 100 percent of all the mining and refining of the top 20 critical minerals,” Burgum said at the press conference.

The White House said the project is expected to create thousands of jobs, boost economic growth in rural Alaska, and open transportation access to more than 1,700 active mining claims in the district.

The Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, where the Ambler Road project would pass through, is visible from Ambler, Alaska, on Sept. 28, 2025. Annika Hammerschlag/AP Photo

The environmental group Sierra Club said it opposed Trump’s decision.

Athan Manuel, director of the Sierra Club’s lands protection program, said the Ambler Road will cause “significant harm” to Alaska’s landscape, as well as the local communities and wildlife in the area.

“This order ignores those voices in favor of corporate polluters,” Manuel said in a statement. “This is no ordinary road – it’s an industrial corridor through intact forests and Alaskan landscapes long enough to connect Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia. Moreover, it would divide the migration route of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd, causing irreversible damage.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 23:00

WHO Warns Chikungunya Virus Has Potential To Spread To More Countries

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The World Health Organization (WHO) said in an outbreak notice last week that some countries are reporting a resurgence in the chikungunya virus, which is transmitted via mosquitoes, and warned that the virus could spread further.

The chikungunya virus is spread through mosquitoes and causes severe pain. AOL Screenshot

In a notice issued on Oct. 3, the U.N.-backed health body said that the chikungunya virus saw “a resurgence” in 2025, including in countries “that had not reported substantial case numbers in recent years.”

The disease typically produces symptoms including fever, muscle pain, nausea, fatigue, and a rash. But in rarer instances, it can cause debilitating joint pain that persists for months or even years, while patients who develop severe forms of the disease usually have to be hospitalized due to organ damage

As of Sept. 30, at least 445,271 suspected chikungunya cases and 155 related deaths were reported worldwide in 40 countries, according to the WHO.

“Some WHO regions are experiencing significant increases in case numbers compared to 2024, although others are currently reporting lower case numbers,” it said. “This uneven distribution of cases across regions makes it challenging to characterize the situation as a global rise.”

The Americas region reported the highest number of viral cases, followed by the European region, which the WHO said comprises “cases reported predominantly from French Overseas Departments in the Indian Ocean.”

Due to what it says is an “uneven distribution of cases across regions,” the WHO said it’s difficult to describe the situation as a global rise, but it warned that “the potential for further spread remains significant.”

The risk caused by the mosquito-borne illness is “heightened by limited population immunity in previously unaffected areas, favorable environmental conditions for vector breeding, gaps in surveillance and diagnostic capacity, and increased human mobility and trade,” the U.N. health agency added.

“Strengthening disease surveillance, enhancing vector surveillance and control, and improving public health preparedness are essential to mitigate the risk of further transmission,” it said.

Late last month, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a travel warning for Cuba over concerns of chikungunya’s transmission in the country. The agency said an outbreak of the chikungunya virus is currently active across Cuba. As a result, a Level 2 travel warning was issued by the health agency.

Women who are “infected around the time of delivery can pass the virus to their baby before or during delivery,” the CDC said on Sept. 26. “Newborns infected in this way or by a mosquito bite are at risk for severe illness, including poor long-term outcomes.”

Aside from Cuba, the CDC released a list of other countries with an outbreak of chikungunya, including Bangladesh, Kenya, Madagascar, Somalia, and Guangdong Province, China. Countries with an elevated risk include Brazil, Colombia, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand, it added.

Earlier this year, cases of chikungunya were spreading rapidly across southern China, as local residents at the time told The Epoch Times that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials forced people into quarantine.

On Aug. 1, the CDC issued a Level 2 travel alert for China over the virus, adding that “most cases have been reported in Foshan city” in Guangdong Province.

“Seek medical care immediately if you develop fever, joint pain, headache, muscle pain, joint swelling, or rash during or after travel,” the agency warned.

Chikungunya is transmitted by infected mosquitoes and mostly causes mild symptoms. The majority of people who get chikungunya recover without needing medical attention after one to two weeks, health officials say.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 22:35