Democrat New Mexico Governor Admits National Guard Making Progress In High-Crime Albuquerque

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

In the shade of a tall fence along Central Avenue, a group of homeless people lingered in Albuquerque’s troubled International District as three squad cars and a medical vehicle swept onto the scene.

Police and first responders moved in quickly, scattering the group as a homeless woman began shouting epithets from the middle of the street.

Matthew, a resident of a nearby halfway house, stood at the edge of the turmoil and watched as the situation unfolded.

“They’re just making people leave, man,” he said, frowning.

“They give you a chance to leave. If you don’t leave, they give you another chance. If you don’t leave again, they just run your name.”

He said if the information shows there is an outstanding warrant, handcuffs come out.

Matthew, who did not want to share his last name, said police have been more visible in a neighborhood that has struggled with crime, homelessness, and drug use for a long time.

The display of force by law enforcement is anything but accidental.

On April 8, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham activated the New Mexico National Guard to assist Albuquerque police in addressing increased crime and safety concerns, particularly on busy Central Avenue.

This allowed officers to return to regular patrols and other duties.

The emergency request from the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) cited the fentanyl epidemic and rising violent juvenile crime as issues requiring immediate intervention.

“The safety of New Mexicans is my top priority,” Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, said in a statement.

“By deploying our National Guard to support APD with essential duties, we’re ensuring that trained police officers can focus on what they do best—keeping our communities safe.”

In May, 60 to 70 National Guard members were sent to the city for Operation Zia Shield. Their training was overseen by New Mexico’s Homeland Security, Public Safety, and local police agencies.

National Guard members have been assisting with tasks such as providing aid along Central Avenue, processing and transporting prisoners, maintaining security at Metro Court, and monitoring the city with police cameras and drones.

“The National Guard will serve as a visible, trusted presence supporting law enforcement duties, which will enhance officer presence in high-crime areas and reinforce community trust through visible engagement,” Lujan Grisham said.

Transit Police vehicles line Central Avenue within the International District in Albuquerque, N.M., on Sept. 3, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Criticism

Lujan Grisham and Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller criticized President Donald Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., after he declared a crime emergency in the nation’s capital on Aug. 11. The president also federalized the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department.

“President Trump’s massive executive overreach in Washington sets a dangerous precedent and undermines safety in our nation’s capital,” Lujan Grisham and Keller said in a joint statement.

Pentagon press secretary Kingsley Wilson during a press conference on Aug. 11, said, “it is disgraceful that we have allowed D.C., to become so incredibly dangerous.”

“I think there’s no more important job for this department than alongside federal law enforcement partners and local police in securing our nation’s capital,” Wilson said.

Meanwhile, Lujan Grisham received criticism for deploying National Guard personnel in her state, including from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of New Mexico.

A mural depicts the historic Nob Hill section of Albuquerque, N.M., near Central Avenue on Sept. 3, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

In April, the ACLU expressed “serious concerns” that military deployment would lead to civil rights violations and further criminalize the homeless.

“All of us deserve to be safe at home, at work, and in our community. We, like so many in Albuquerque, know that that’s not always the case in our city,” Daniel Williams, ACLU of New Mexico policy advocate, said in a statement.

“However, Governor Lujan Grisham’s deployment of the National Guard to support Albuquerque police is a show of force, not a show of solutions.”

A group of people squats in the shade of a building off Central Avenue in the International District of Albuquerque, N.M., on Sept. 3, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Despite this criticism, Lujan Grisham’s office said Operation Zia Shield, now in its third month, has been “highly successful.”

“Initial plans cited a minimum of six months in order to make a positive impact in the community,” a spokesman told The Epoch Times.

Officials will continue to review the situation to decide whether to proceed or end the mission, he said.

Field operations in Albuquerque began on June 5, with National Guard personnel monitoring city streets under the direction of police dispatch.

“Having National Guardsmen assisting with these calls reduces the number of sworn law enforcement officers needed at each call, freeing them up for more serious calls,” the spokesman said.

Jonathan Tafoya stands inside Fonzy's Barbershop, in the Nob Hill section of Albuquerque, N.M., on Sept. 3, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Since mid-May, Operation Zia Shield has devoted nearly 4,000 hours to responding to 1,216 incidents throughout the city.

These included 210 calls for patrolling neighborhoods, which took 282 hours; 35 calls for medical assistance; 117 calls to assist other officers; 107 special tasks; and 194 calls to patrol public transportation areas.

On July 28, a Zia Shield unit effort provided guard personnel with job training to assist with paperwork and expedite court case processing.

Guard members processed 549 criminal summons and prepared and sent 1,347 officer trial notices, according to the spokesman.

On Aug. 8, selected Guard personnel monitored traffic cameras and earned drone pilot licenses. They flew drones 180 times, totaling almost 39 hours.

One week into the mission, National Guard members monitoring traffic cameras noticed a person who appeared to be having a medical emergency in a bus shelter.

Their observation helped save the person’s life, the spokesman said.

Since Operation Zia Shield started, Guard members have processed 2,248 people under arrest. This allowed police officers to focus on other tasks.

Jonathan Tafoya, owner of Fonzy’s Barbershop along Monte Vista Boulevard near Central Avenue, opened his shop six months ago.

While he hasn’t seen much crime in his area, he thinks using the National Guard to support law enforcement is a good idea, “because there aren’t enough cops.”

‘More Police Needed’

As of Sept. 3, the city has reported 50 homicides so far this year. In 2024, there were 66 confirmed homicides, while in 2023, the number was 73.

The APD has 864 officers who serve a city that spans 189.5 square miles and is home to 558,874 people.

In 2023, 40 APD officers resigned, representing a 32.2 percent decrease from 2002—when 59 officers resigned—and a 36.5 percent decrease from 2021, when 63 officers left the force, according to Police1.

“They need to step up their police presence,” Tafoya told The Epoch Times. “Just hire more cops—but nobody wants to be a cop.”

A police substation in the Nob Hill area of Albuquerque, N.M., on Sept. 3, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Robert, a local business owner on Central Avenue in the Nob Hill neighborhood, said homelessness is a major problem in the city.

“I know in our back alley, they‘ll be back there using drugs, and they’ll try and camp back there, and we’ll tell them to move,” said Robert, who didn’t want his last name used out of fear of retaliation.

The solution, he said, is hiring more police officers. The problem is, “Who wants to be a police officer?”

“It’s a very hard role to fill now because it comes with a lot of politics, a lot of baggage,” Robert said.

“There are no consequences anymore for a lot of things that people do, especially in Albuquerque. The juvenile crime is out of control. Our legislators won’t take action. They give them a slap on the hand.”

Christian works as a cook at a restaurant on Central Avenue. He said he feels sympathy for the homeless but sometimes sees them as part of the problem.

“A lot of homeless people do drugs and everything. We shouldn’t have to deal with that,” he said

A man waits for public transportation to arrive in Albuquerque's Nob Hill East section on Sept. 3, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Christian, like Robert, believes that using National Guard members to help local police is a “good thing.”

Better Days

Robert recalled that the International District was once known as the “War Zone” because crime was so prevalent.

“It used to be a nice part of town way back when,” he said. “But that’s where a lot of the homeless are now.”

Matthew said every day, people experiencing homelessness gather in the shaded areas along Central Avenue across from the casino.

It can still be a dangerous place, he said, even with police patrolling nearby.

“Everybody’s doing drugs out here, bro. They’re getting their pills and syringes everywhere. It’s disgusting,” he said.

After the police moved the group of homeless people away from the shaded fence, he offered some advice to someone walking by.

“Be safe, man,” Matthew said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 19:50

Undersea Cable Cuts Kill Internet To Parts Of Asia, Mideast

Undersea internet cables in the Red Sea have been cut, disrupting internet access to parts of Asia and the Middle East. The cause of the cuts weren't immediately clear, though China does have a shiny new deep-sea cable cutter (which we're sure a bunch of countries have too). 

Saudi Vision Cable, laid in 2022, connects Jeddah, Yanbu, Dibba and Haql, the major subsea hubs in Red Sea cities of Saudi Arabia.

Associated Press (via NBC) seems to think ('there has been concern') that Houthi rebels from Yemen have been targeting the cables, which sounds absurd - though parts of the red sea are only as deep at 100m (330 ft). 

While the Houthis might not have submarines, undersea robots, or the ability to hit the deepest parts of the Red Sea, it’s possible to inflict damage on subsea cables without the backing of a major navy.

In March 2013, three divers were arrested by the Egyptian Navy off the coast of Alexandria after cutting the SeaMeWe-4 cable by detonating underwater explosives. Internet speeds reportedly fell around 60 percent after the incident. A motive wasn’t revealed and it’s unclear if they were charged and/or sentenced for the damage.

In 2007, it was reported that police had seized more than 500km of telecom cable taken by fishing vessels to sell for scrap – including an 11km segment identified as belonging to the SeaMeWe-3 cable. -Data Center Dynamics

So, who knows - but AP (deep state) spends considerable ink on the Houthis 

Yemen with its capital, Sanaa. AP

Undersea cables are a major component of the internet, along with satellite connections and land-based cables, with internet providers having multiple access points through which to reroute traffic if necessary. 

According to Microsoft, the Mideast "may experience increased latency due to undersea fiber cuts in the Red Sea," though it did not elaborate.

According to internet monitor NetKBlocks, a "series of subsea cable outages in the Red Sea has degraded internet connectivity in multiple countries," which is says includes India and Pakistan. It blamed "failures affecting the SMW4 and IMEWE cable systems near Jeddah, Saudi Arabia."

In August of 2022, the 'Saudi Vision Cable' was laid near Jeddah.The Vision Cable spans 1,160km connecting Jeddah, Yanbu, Dibba and Haql, the major subsea hubs in Red Sea cities of Saudi Arabia, according to Submarine Cable Networks.

Beyond that, the South East Asia-Middle East-Western Europe 4 cable (say that three times fast) is operated by Tata Communications - part of the Indian conglomerate, while the India-Middle East-Western Europe cable is operated by another consortium overseen by Alcatel-Lucent. 

Pakistan Telecommunications Co. Ltd., a telecommunication giant in that country, noted that the cuts had taken place in a statement on Saturday.

Saudi Arabia did not immediately acknowledge the disruption and authorities there did not respond to a request for comment.

In the United Arab Emirates, home to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, internet users on the country’s state-owned Du and Etisalat networks complained of slower internet speeds. The government did not immediately acknowledge the disruption. -AP

Subsea cables can be cut by anchors dropped from ships, on purpose or otherwise. Repairs can take weeks, as a ship and crew must be dispatched to locate and repair the damaged cable.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 19:15

The Battle Brewing: Mass Surveillance Vs The People

Authored by Susan D. Harris via The Epoch Times,

Behind the scenes of breaking news, culture wars, and moral division, a significant battle is brewing: mass surveillance vs. the people.

One surveillance technology in particular is rising to the surface of the national conversation: automated license plate readers (ALPR).

Flock Safety, a leader in ALPR technology, is one of the companies in the eye of the storm. Last week, Flock’s CEO and co-founder Garrett Langley made headlines when he released a statement announcing the company was going to “pause” its pilot programs with the U.S. government.

The company said that while it has no current contracts with any U.S. Department of Homeland Security agencies, it did engage in “limited pilots with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), to assist those agencies in combatting human trafficking and fentanyl distribution.”

So why would a company decide not to aid their own government in the fight against human trafficking and fentanyl distribution? Who are the voices that swayed them?

The company’s statement likely stems from criticism (or demonization) of Flock Safety for developing technology that has been adapted for use by ICE agents.

In a July interview with 9News Denver, Flock Safety CEO Langley was asked about the Denver city council voting against extending the city’s Flock contract “out of concerns the system would be exploited for immigration matters.”

Langley straddled the fence:

“Every city needs to make a decision what’s right for them. Some cities work really closely with federal authorities … Now in the case of Denver, if there’s no desire to work with ICE, that’s great. We need to create a safer city while still upholding the values we have.”

Ultimately, however, Denver Mayor Mike Johnston, a Democrat, extended the contract through October 2025 after the dollar amount was reset to a figure that didn’t need council approval.

A spokesman for the mayor said the cameras are “an important tool for fighting crime.”

Meanwhile, Denver city leaders formed a special task force to discuss the technology’s privacy concerns. The policy director for the ACLU of Colorado said he would like the cameras turned off entirely—"until there are policies in place to regulate the use of them ...”

Reason magazine claims that that “Flock Safety’s 40,000 cameras present in over 5,000 communities across the U.S. are being used to detain undocumented immigrants, many of whom have no criminal history.”

To be clear, it’s not a matter of Homeland Security or ICE agents directly accessing the Denver system—or any ALPR system. It’s a complex issue of state and local law enforcement agencies sharing information or granting access to other agencies. As Denver7 reported, “Flock Safety’s cameras capture billions of photos of license plates each month. However, it doesn’t own that data. The local agencies in whose jurisdictions the cameras are located do, and they’re the ones who receive inquiries from other law enforcement agencies.”

The same issue has been unfolding in other parts of the country as well.

In 2019, the ACLU of Northern California complained of ICE “using driver location data from local police for deportations.” The company at the center of that controversy was Vigilant Solutions. Now a subsidiary of Motorola Solutions, Inc., it too provides license plate recognition technology and intelligence platforms for law enforcement and commercial applications.

As a matter of fact, there are tons of companies clamoring to be Number One in the ALPR industry. Genetec’s AutoVu, PlateSmart Technologies, and Rank One Computing are just a few.

Beyond the field of computer science known as computer vision that encompasses license plate recognition, there also lies the lucrative field of biometrics: the physical field of analyzing body traits and the behavioral field that analyzes patterns. In short, there’s a virtual feeding frenzy happening in the marketplace of digital panopticons. (For a great commentary on Bentham’s panopticon—the prison designed for total surveillance—and the modern era, see “The Age of the Digital Panopticon” on the Neuroscience ABS blog.)

But before we balk at having our license plates zapped into a searchable database, let’s consider the advantages.

Local TV station Denver7 reported that Flock Safety cameras “led to 353 arrests, 251 recovered stolen vehicles and 39 recovered firearms as of August 12.”

Cities like Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, began installing Flock Safety cameras years ago, and law enforcement reports the cameras have made a difference in fighting crime. Fort Worth authorities say the cameras have helped with gun detection, while Dallas police note their use in real-time crime fighting by sending license plate images to the Dallas Fusion Center. (For those not in the know, there are at least 79 fusion centers across the United States, run by state and local law enforcement in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. These centers act as hubs for collecting, evaluating, and sharing intelligence and public safety data.)

Additionally, Flock Safety markets its ALPR technology, as well as its gunfire locator systems, far beyond law enforcement and city management: Companies like Lowe’s and Home Depot use them.

They also sell to neighborhood associations (HOAs), schools, and private individuals. Think of their advantages in emergencies like school or church shootings or Amber alerts. ALPR technology seems to be making us all safer.

Yet as with most of the surveillance technology that we’ve reluctantly embraced “for our own good”—especially after the attacks of 9/11—Americans are having second thoughts about the privacy they’re being asked to forfeit in the name of safety.

The movement against license plate readers is making strange bedfellows: Some conservatives criticize it as government overreach, seeing it as a digital dragnet that tracks all vehicles without probable cause—directly infringing on fourth amendment protections against unreasonable searches. Simultaneously, some progressives are also focusing on it as a violation of civil liberties, alleging that it’s being used to target “undocumented migrants.”

Flock Safety’s recent announcement is the first sign that a company providing this kind of surveillance can be swayed by public opinion. It is a clear harbinger of a larger public debate that will likely drive new legislation at the local, state, and possibly even the federal level. It’s a conversation that is long overdue.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 18:40

Maryland Scrambles To Deploy More Law Enforcement To Crime-Ridden Baltimore After Trump Threat 

Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Baltimore City Mayor Brandon Scott, both leaning left on the political spectrum, announced late last week that additional law enforcement resources will be deployed to support the crumbling Baltimore City Police force, which is suffering from a dangerous officer shortage after years of disastrous criminal justice reforms, including "defund the police" initiatives and other progressive programs that have backfired.

At a joint press conference on Friday, Mayor Scott declared, "We do not need an occupation. We do not need troops on our streets," adding, "We can do this ourselves." 

The state plans to deploy Maryland State Police and Transportation Authority officers into high-risk "no-go" zones controlled by violent gangs that have been allowed to flourish under City Hall's progressive regime, leaving the city plagued by violent crime, which only sparked a population exodus. 

What's alarming is that Gov. Moore and Mayor Scott only moved to bolster the city's police force after President Trump's recent threat to deploy federal law enforcement to restore law and order. 

Years of violent crime chaos, but no action? Why is that? 

• "500 Officers Short" - Baltimore City Faces Mass Cop Exodus

• Baltimore City Implodes: Police Force Collapses, Only Three Officers Patrolled Major District

"Chicago is a hellhole right now, Baltimore is a hellhole right now," Trump said earlier this month, adding, "I have an obligation .... this is a political thing."

Mayor Scott stated, "This announcement is about using government resources in a targeted, evidence-based way, in order to make our neighborhoods safer. We are grateful that Governor Moore has chosen to reinstate this partnership after it was eliminated by the previous administration. This is the kind of support we need for our violence intervention work, which has brought crime to record lows across the board. It takes all of us—state, city, and federal law enforcement, including the ATF, FBI, and DEA, community violence interrupters, and residents—to build on this progress and create the safer, healthier Baltimore we know is possible."

The confusing part is why far-left politicians running the state and city into the ground didn't act before Trump. Why did it take a strong leader in the White House to force state and city officials to respond finally? Shouldn't these local leaders be serving the people of Baltimore and prioritizing their well-being?

Yet the optics certaintly show that Moore might serve someone else besides Marylanders.

Sigh Moore... 

Damning photos burn top Democrat Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's 2028 plans to the ground as he's busted half-naked on kingmaker George Clooney's luxury yacht in ITALY while his 'hellhole' state faces crime apocalypse https://t.co/lkQk7yhjo1 pic.twitter.com/kjYYZpVYVM

— Daily Mail US (@Daily_MailUS) September 2, 2025

And Mayor Scott.

The chart Democrats in the state don't want the nation to see...

Baltimore is a crime-ridden hellhole. Everyone knows it. Democrats own it, yet there's been zero accountability for years of failed criminal and social justice reforms that plunged the city into an era of violent crime and death.

Another massive failure is the school system, which enriches leftist unions that, in turn, fuel the Democratic Party's machine while robbing youngsters of any chance at future success. Democrats preach diversity, yet once they seized power, they shun anyone with an opposing political view.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 18:05

Reality Checks

Submitted by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Reality Check - Jobs

We published Weak Jobs Data ahead of the NFP release, in case the NFP turned out to be surprisingly good (who knows, with this data). We could have saved some time by not digging through ISM Employment, JOLTS Openings and Quits, ADP, or the soon to be released revisions to Q2 2024 to Q1 2025 numbers, since the NFP report was weak across the board.

We always like to look for “inconsistencies” within this report. Things that are either inconsistent in the report itself, or relative to other data. This basically just reinforced and confirmed the view that the labor market is weak (and made us even more bitter that the June number, released as a “glorious” beat on July 3rd, was actually negative, which was in line with our views as a potential outcome at the time).

We couldn’t even find “glimmers of light” as earnings declined more than expected, hours worked dropped, and the unemployment rate went up (partly due to a small increase in the Participation Rate). Of greater concern was that the Underemployment Rate increased to 8.1%, the highest since the end of 2021! It had been above 10% prior to 2016, so it isn’t alarming, but it isn’t helpful either. The Household Survey did show a gain of 288k jobs, but its 3-month average is 40k, pretty much in line with the Establishment Survey’s 3-month average of 29k. For the past 2 months, the Household Survey has had full-time job losses of almost 800k and part-time job gains of about 850k. That is not good and the number of people who are working part-time is rising steadily.

Source: Zerohedge

For those of you who regularly read our criticisms of the birth/death model, it added 90k. Normally, we’d highlight that it is “odd” that a model of new businesses contributes this much relative to the total, but we will be kind and admit that we could be seeing new businesses starting, trying to take advantage of the myriad of policies being implemented. Change creates opportunity and there are many positive developments (for growth) on the tax side, shifting priorities, and reduced regulation in some industries.

With ongoing uncertainty around policy:

• The courts are still deciding on the legality of many existing tariffs (and the admin is working on how to keep them in place even if the courts rule against them, by using other rules to impose the tariffs, or even pointing to the trade “deals”).
• The admin still seems to change some tariff levels somewhat arbitrarily (at least compared to “traditional” standards), though nowhere near as much as around Liberation Day.
• There still is little in the way of formal, detailed documentation regarding the deals announced, and it seems fair to say that what the U.S. says about some deals, versus what the other country is saying, doesn’t always tie out (Japan’s “investment” in the U.S. as one pretty big example).
• What are other countries doing behind the scenes? No country was really in a position to lose a lot of business with the U.S. (other than maybe China, primarily due to their stranglehold on many rare earths and critical minerals – with magnets taking center stage). So of course, some “deals” were struck, but it is impossible to believe that many aren’t taking steps to insulate themselves from what they may see as “erratic” or “aggressive” behavior.

The job market needs to be addressed better, though it is possible that the combination of tariffs and other policies will bring a flood of jobs to the U.S. as they fully take effect. We remain most optimistic around ProSec™ (Production for Security) – and have seen some steps taken on that front (though some of the steps have raised issues about control, etc.)

Reality Check - Tariffs

Clearly, tariffs came up in our discussion of the job market. We believe tariff policy, both the uncertainty and the time it takes to have an effect, is hurting employment at the moment. Uncertainty does not encourage aggressive spending.

The disruption of tariffs comes first. Then, over time, once companies believe high tariffs are here to stay, and they have negotiated deals with suppliers, they can turn more attention to making products in the U.S. Some of that is already starting, but in general it takes time to build out. The build-out phase will also generate some jobs, but the big impact will come from a serious increase in domestic manufacturing. We remain concerned, that outside of ProSec™, the administration’s goals related to tariffs may not be achieved:

• The build-out time for many facilities is measured in years, not months, making the economy susceptible to the negative consequences of tariffs.
• In some cases, the cost disadvantage is so great, that even with large tariffs, domestic manufacturing may still have limited gains.

We continue to look to the monthly Tariff Revenue Charts for the cumulative impact. Only as the cumulative number grows should we expect to see the potential negatives – goods inflation/margin pressure – show up in the data. There are “whispers” in the data “hinting” that they are real and developing, but that could turn into a “crescendo” in the coming quarters as inventory has been rolled over to the point that it is completely tariffed, agreements with suppliers have been hammered out, and sales contracts get renegotiated.

Reality Check – AI Spend

The spending on AI (data centers, chips, electricity production) has been instrumental in keeping the economy going (and getting stocks to record levels).

So far, there are few, if any signs of the spending (investment) ebbing. By and large the talk from the chip companies, hyper-scalers, and large potential customers remains very positive and aggressive in regards to spending.

The President just met with the CEOs of major tech companies, so there should be ongoing support from the administration. Portions of the “Big Beautiful” Tax Act, such as accelerated depreciation, should add to the amount spent.

We have barely scratched the surface on the potential spending and growth as crypto in general and stablecoins make use of the tailwinds of recent laws and regulations. We are seeing Digital Asset Treasury companies being created daily and there is growing chatter of the potential for MSTR to be added to the S&P 500 (it was already added by Nasdaq).

Given the importance of this industry to the economy and markets, any cracks, even small ones, could have immediate, relatively large effects. Hopefully, we won’t find any cracks, but we are spending time on that front as it is truly mission critical that these industries continue to speed along!

Reality Check – Inflation

We concede, based on our views on tariffs, that there is some risk of goods inflation. But, if we are right on the economy, that will be relatively small. A weak job market doesn’t lend itself to consumers bidding up prices.

As we wrote recently, the housing inflation data is simply wrong. It doesn’t reflect what is currently occurring with rent, and it is “guaranteed” to catch up, since it is pretty much an exercise in math. It is difficult to believe that the Fed that missed rising rents in a timely manner during the “transitory” period, will make the same mistake, in reverse now, but that has been the path that they are on.

The goods inflation will pass through to the service economy over time (as service providers have to purchase equipment, products, supplies, etc.) but without job growth, it is difficult to see inflation running rampant.

Overall, I’d expect inflation to run somewhere close to (but likely below) 3% for the next year.

A touch high for the Fed to be comfortable cutting, but not so high that they shouldn’t respond to the already weak job market (after revisions, it has been weak for 3 months, and we think that Q1 was likely overstated for the reasons listed at the time – birth/death and invalid seasonality adjustments being the primary reasons).

Reality Check – Housing

Lower mortgage rates should help, but we continue to look at some “problem” areas that we have focused on before.

We hear a LOT about lack of supply, but we keep coming back to charts like this one.

The number of homes for sale in Florida has come down from recent highs, but it is still above where it was pre-Covid, and I believe it has improved due to seasonality (this chart is not seasonally adjusted).

We will be checking out other states, but we have a weird dynamic:

Affordability is low in most areas, especially for buyers who need a mortgage.

Supply of some types of residences is low in some areas (I’m told) yet we see several big states/regions with charts similar to the one above.

Not sure what is going on, but it seems like there is some risk that houses become affordable in a bad way (homeowners lose some of their equity – which tends to slow spending and the economy).

Reality Check – The Consumer

Never bet against the U.S. consumer continuing to spend. There have been periods that the U.S. consumer’s ability/willingness to consume has been tested, but not often nor for long since at least the GFC.

Being on the road this week on vacation, with a lot of spotty wi-fi during any downtime, we didn’t make much progress digging deeper into this risk. However, I’ve seen a lot more circulating on this topic. Nothing alarming, and some reports remain optimistic, but given our concern about the job market, taking a closer look at the consumer seems like a necessary project

Reality Check – The Fed, Treasury, and Interest Rates

While the market gapped closer to our target of 100 bps of cuts this year, even with some flattening on the week, we think the market is still underestimating the steps the Fed, in conjunction with Treasury, can take to reduce rates across the curve.

We’ve had numerous discussions on the subject since we published How We’d Drive All Yields Lower. We were playing “Devil’s Advocate” but worth a read, especially after this week’s data and some of Secretary Bessent’s recent talking points.

Given price action on Friday and our overall outlook, we like lower yields and flatter curves (rather than just a “theoretical like” as we think steepeners are crowded and could face some pain in the coming days).

Reality Check – Don’t Fight the Fed

The Fed is cutting.

If we are correct on even a few of our policy thoughts, we will see flatter yield curves.

But is that enough for stocks to keep going strong? That is literally the trillion dollar question.

Stocks seemed to think so initially on Friday (and even Thursday as they regained losses from a few of the prior days). Then they seemed to second guess that as they sold off, only to fight back to close to unchanged.

What will next week bring? I think the recent struggle to materially break higher will persist, with more risk of a 5% move to the downside before another 5% to the upside for major U.S. stock indices.

Guess we are encouraging “fighting the Fed” – at least a little on the equity side.

Bottom Line

Really like bonds here. Credit should be fine. Slightly cautious on equities. Exploring the crypto/stablecoin arena for the best opportunities. 

Had a great vacation, but am looking forward to full steam ahead as September through November is already looking like it will be extremely busy on so many fronts (and today we barely touched on geopolitics, the military, and the American Brand – so plenty more to assess and keep you posted on as the Geopolitical Intelligence Group continues to expand in size and scope).

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 16:20

Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Resigns, Most Likely To Be Replaced With Hard-Line Conservative

For much of the past two months, ever since the historic loss of Japan's LDP in July's parliamentary elections, we have mocked the highly unpopular Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba, who was clinging to the post despite record disapproval and a clear shift in popular sentiment that had clearly stripped him of mandate to be Japan's leader. 

Japan’s PM Ishiba: Have No Intention of Clinging to Post

... he says as his coalition lost the majority in both houses of Japan's parliament, a humiliating blow to a PM who just keeps on clinging and refuses to quit

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2025

Japan’s PM Ishiba: Have No Intention of Clinging to Post

... he says as his coalition lost the majority in both houses of Japan's parliament, a humiliating blow to a PM who just keeps on clinging and refuses to quit

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2025

A few hours ago, Ishiba finally decided to prove us wrong and announced he will step down - following weeks of calls for his departure - a decision that will set in motion a leadership race that may generate concerns for investors. 

“While I feel there are still things I wish to do as premier, I have made the difficult decision to step down,” Ishiba said at a press conference in Tokyo on Sunday. “Having seen the US trade negotiations through, I felt that now is the right time to stand down and give way to my successor.”

“I felt that if I continued amid a vote on an early leadership race, it could have created an irreversible division within the party, which is certainly not my intention.” He will stay on as prime minister until his successor takes over.

Ishiba’s resignation brings to an end a tenure marked by humiliating election results that stripped the Liberal Democratic Party’s ruling coalition of its majorities in both chambers of parliament and left market participants unsure of Japan’s fiscal plans. His departure is likely to fuel uncertainty among investors over the coming weeks until a new leader is chosen. It will also likely spark debate among market participants whether his replacement will follow through with the trade deal that Japan reach with Trump.

How soon until Japan's next real prime minister - Ishiba is just a lame duck now - renegs on this deal? https://t.co/CDuk3dAmdr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 22, 2025

As Bloomberg warns, the risk of further instability could weigh on the yen and longer-term bonds when trading opens Monday in Asia. Japan’s currency was one of the weakest performers among its Group of 10 peers last week, while yields on longer-term Japanese government debt reached fresh multi-decade highs.

“Prime Minister Ishiba was known for his strict stance on fiscal discipline,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, flagging the likelihood of upward pressure on super-long yields. “While it remains unclear who will become the next prime minister, it’s difficult to envision anyone with a fiscal discipline stance better than or even equivalent to his.”

Which, in a country best known for the short tenure of its prime minister, more easing to placate the masses is on deck, even if it means another surge in inflation, and even higher prices in gold and crypto as the local population protects what little is left of its purchasing power.

The LDP was set to hold a vote Monday if it should bring forward a leadership election by two years, but that had looked increasingly likely to turn into a vote of no confidence in the premier. That vote will now be canceled, and instead the LDP will hold a leadership race, Ishiba said.

Lawmakers jockeying to position themselves as the next premier will need at least 20 other members of parliament to support their candidacy in order to enter the race. Whoever emerges top in the party contest will then have to win a vote in parliament to become prime minister in a fractured Diet.

Potential candidates within the ruling party include Sanae Takaichi, 64, a former internal affairs minister who finished second to Ishiba in an LDP leadership race last year. If chosen, Takaichi would be Japan's first female prime minister.

A party veteran who has held a variety of roles, including economic security and internal affairs minister, she is known for conservative positions such as revising the pacifist postwar constitution; Takaichi is a regular visitor to the Yasukuni shrine to honor Japan's war dead, viewed by some Asian neighbors as a symbol of past militarism.

She is a fan of Abenomics economic policies and favors stimulus measures which means any hope for a rate hike by the "independent" Bank of Japan would be quietly put to pasture under her leadership (we leave the discussion of BOJ "independence" to an other time). 

A member of Japan’s largest nationalist organisation Nippon Kaigi and known as a hard-line conservative, Takaichi opposes same-sex marriage and supports a requirement for couples to share a surname after marriage. She has also stated that a government gender equality plan could "destroy the social structure based on family units" has voiced opposition to proposals to change the law so that a woman could become the Emperor of Japan.

Takaichi supports imprisoning those who damage Japan's national flag, and is considered a China-hawk when it comes to foreign policy and supports revising article 9 of the Japanese constitution which prohibits Japan from entering armed conflict.  She’s also a vocal critic of Chinese economic practices such as intellectual property theft and calls on Japan to lessen its economic dependence on China.

Most notably, she believes that immigration to Japan risks destabilizing Japanese society and argues that Japanese heritage must be protected. As such, should she replace Ishiba, she would become the latest hard-line conservative to take charge in blowback to the catastrophic policies unleashed by the liberal left in recent years.

Among other possible candidates, Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister, is on the right-wing of the party and would be a possible rival to Takaichi in garnering support from that section of lawmakers. Yoshimasa Hayashi, the current chief cabinet secretary, as well as Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, might also show interest in succeeding Ishiba. 

“If Ms. Takaichi is appointed, bond selling could intensify due to the risk of a credit rating downgrade,” Sumitomo Mitsui Trust’s Inadome said. In that scenario, “we could see a triple dip: falling bond prices, a weaker yen, and declining stock prices.” 

A Koizumi or Hayashi win is more likely to return the yield curve to its previous shape, he added.

Traditionally, the LDP’s dominance in parliament all but assures that its leader will become prime minister. With no majority in either house, there’s only a slim chance the leader of the LDP could fail to clinch the premiership, though that decision is still some weeks away.

The next premier will have to navigate challenges ranging from global trade headwinds to simmering resentment at home over soaring costs of living. Ishiba had called for fresh cash handouts to support consumers, while opposition parties sought tax cuts or higher spending, proposals that have given investors cause for concern.

In the press conference held Sunday, Ishiba said that consumers and businesses will need more support and pressed the need to maintain momentum for wage hikes. He indicated that he essentially decided to step down following the July election setback, but saw a need to make more progress on the trade deal with the US first.

US President Donald Trump signed his trade agreement with Japan and put it into effect with an executive order on Thursday. Although current tariff rates will be lowered with the new order, Japan will still have to pay a maximum 15% tariff on its products, including exports of cars and auto parts.

Still, the signing of the deal leaves Ishiba with some kind of legacy to walk away with after a troubled year at the helm.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 12:35

OPEC+ Accelerates Oil Production Hikes Despite 'Glut' Concerns

OPEC+ agreed to accelerate the return of another chunk of oil that it’s been withholding from the market, as the group sticks with a strategy of prioritizing market share over prices.

After an online meeting Sunday, eight OPEC+ members said they will boost production by 137,000 barrels a day in October, beginning to roll back some voluntary cuts they had previously put in place.

The alliance, which comprises OPEC and other top oil producers including Russia, had been expected to keep output steady until recent days. 

It’s the first sliver of a bigger 1.65 million barrels a day tranche of supply that was meant to be held back until the end of next year, suggesting cautious optimism about the market.

OPEC+ members said Sunday the barrels may be restored in part or in full “subject to evolving market conditions.”

While the production increases have prevented prices from rising sharply amid heightened geopolitical tensions, The Wall Street Journal reports they have sparked fears of an impending glut among investors. 

This has yet to show in inventory data, largely because of robust summer demand and only modest stock buildups in OECD countries, according to market watchers. 

Actual OPEC+ production also has fallen short of pledged volumes in recent months, as some members had to restrict output to compensate for earlier overproduction.

The decision is likely to put a renewed spotlight on the unused production levels available in different OPEC+ members, as countries that can’t pump more won’t fully benefit from the increased quotas, while they face the added pressure of lower prices. 

The group’s next meeting will be October 5.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 12:15

South Korea Makes Deal With US To Release Detained Georgia Plant Workers

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

The South Korean government on Sept. 7 said that the more than 300 South Korean workers who were detained during a federal immigration operation at a Georgia Hyundai plant will be released and sent home.

The South Korea and U.S. governments finalized negotiations on releasing the workers, said presidential chief of staff, Kang Hoon-sik. South Korea will send a charter plane to bring the workers back once the remaining administrative steps are concluded, he added.

On Friday, U.S. immigration authorities said they had arrested 475 people at the worksite, most of whom were South Korean nationals. Hundreds of federal agents had conducted an operation at the Korean automaker Hyundai’s large Georgia-based manufacturing plant, where it builds electric vehicles. More than 300 South Koreans were part of the group detained, said Cho Hyun, South Korea’s Foreign Minister.

In video footage released by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on Saturday, a caravan of vehicles can be seen approaching the site before federal agents direct workers to form a line outside. Agents told several detainees to put up their hands against a bus before frisking them. Some of the workers were shackled around their hands, ankles, and waists.

The plant, which is still under construction, is a partnership between Hyundai and LG Energy Solution to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles. The Hyundai campus is one of Georgia’s largest economic development projects.

The majority of the detainees were sent to an immigration detention center in Folkston, Georgia, near the Florida border. 

Steven Schrank, the lead Georgia agent of Homeland Security Investigations, said during a news conference on Sept. 5 that none of the arrested workers have been charged with crimes yet, as the investigation is still ongoing. The Sept. 4 operation was the largest federal immigration worksite operation in Homeland Security Investigations’s history, he said. 

The South Korean government, a key U.S. ally, said it felt “concern and regret” regarding the operation targeting its citizens and has sent diplomats to the plant. 

The effort continues the Trump administration’s focus on illegal immigration and deportations at businesses and workplaces that allegedly employ illegal immigrants.

Last week, ICE agents arrested dozens of illegal immigrants in the New York townships of Cato and Fulton.

The operation was carried out at a factory run by Nutrition Bar Confectioners, a local food processing company. Between 40 and 70 people were arrested.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul criticized the arrests.

“I am outraged by this morning’s ICE raids in Cato and Fulton, where more than 40 adults were seized—including parents of at least a dozen children at risk of returning from school to an empty house,” Hochul wrote in a statement.

“New York will work with the federal government to secure our borders and deport violent criminals, but we will never stand for masked ICE agents separating families and abandoning children.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 11:40

Putin Invited Zelensky To Moscow, Who Responds "I Can't Go To The Capital Of This Terrorist"

Russian state media sources have of late been alleging a secret Western plot to replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. These reports have continued through August and into September, but the scenario has obviously not come to fruition.

A prime candidate to replace him would be former chief of the armed forces, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny - who Zelensky fired last year and shipped off to London to be ambassador there. Since then, Ukraine's military has been doing even worse on the battlefield, according to The Wall Street Journal and many other reports.

Getty Images

Russia's TASS has claimed there's a specific plot afoot, reporting a so-called "triumvirate" consisting of Andriy Yermak (head of the Ukrainian presidential office), Kyrylo Budanov (military intelligence chief), and Gen. Zaluzhny (former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the UK), are actively working with the US and UK to replace President Zelensky with Zaluzhny.

Ukrainian media has also picked up on this, but has dismissed it as Russian wartime propaganda:

The SVR said the “conspiracy” was the underlying cause “…of the recent scandalous attempt by ‘Kyiv’s president’ to restrict the powers of the local anti-corruption mechanisms.” This was in reference to the proposed legal attempts to limit the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office.

But Zelensky has, under pressure from Western partners, dutifully reversed his legal move against said anti-corruption bodies. 

Several reports by the end of July indicated he "backtracked" amid domestic and international criticism. Still, the Russian media reports claimed this revealed cracks in his support base, emboldening those plotting against him.

But given Zelensky's recent appearance in Paris for a collective defense conference alongside President Macron, and given he's readying a plan with NATO allies for 'security guarantees' - it doesn't seem like he's going anywhere soon.

President Putin has repeatedly called Zelensky out as 'illegitimate' - but still while in Beijing this past week indicated he's open to inviting him to Moscow for talks.

Putin caveated that this would have to be premised on real progress at the negotiating table, however. He actually appeared to throw out an open invitation, at least according to US officials who informed Zelensky of the overture. 

Watch: Zelensky rejects the invite...

Putin invited Zelensky to Moscow, offering personal security guarantees. Zelensky refused.

In reality, he would've been absolutely safe - Russia had more than 3.5 years to vaporize him into fine powder and never did.

Even in the far-fetched scenario where he's arrested upon… pic.twitter.com/KqEKrfHhNv

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) September 5, 2025

Zelensky countered by saying Putin should come to Kyiv, but practically speaking that's not going to happen, given it would be a security nightmare for the Kremlin, and given it would be seen as bowing to Ukraine's demands.

"He can come to Kyiv," Zelensky said. "I can't go to Moscow when my country's under missiles, under attack, each day. I can't go to the capital of this terrorist."

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 11:05

The Bond Market Is Suddenly More Concerned About Jobs Than Inflation

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The long bond verdict is finally in. Jobs and growth outweigh inflation.

US Treasury Yield Notes

• Between August 5 and August 21, bond yields for US treasuries of 2 year duration or longer all rose.

• The period between August 21 and September 2 was very painful for 30-year long bond holders but favorable for the rest.

• Starting September 2, there was a bond market rally across the board.

Treasury Yield Changes Since September 2

What Happened?

• The ISM report on September 2 showed weak hiring.

• The BLS JOLTS repot on September 3 revealed unemployment was above job openings for the first time since the pandemic.

• The ADP report on September 4 was weak, especially small businesses.

• The nonfarm payroll report on September 5 was a disaster.

The trend on the 10-year treasury note and the 30-year long bond are back in sync. Both are headed lower.

The discrepancy resolved to job weakness over inflation concerns, but Powell will be cautious unless there is a collapse.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 10:30

CBS Changes Policy For 'Face The Nation' Interviews After "Shamefully" Editing Noem Interview

CBS News has announced it will no longer edit guest interviews on its flagship Sunday program “Face the Nation,” moving to a live or live-to-tape format following days of criticism over its handling of a sit-down with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

The change comes after Noem accused the network of “shamefully” cutting portions of her Aug. 31 interview in order to “whitewash the truth.”

As Tom Ozimek reports for The Epoch Times, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said the broadcaster removed over 23 percent of her answers, “exposing the truth about criminal illegal alien Kilmar Abrego Garcia, President Donald Trump’s lawful actions to protect the American people, and Secretary Noem’s commitment to fight on behalf of the American people and their tax dollars.”

CBS initially defended its actions, saying that the unedited version was posted online, but the backlash continued to grow on social media and beyond.

Noem and others circulated clips of the missing passages online and accused the network of trying to manipulate public opinion by withholding harsh truths—like when Noem said that Abrego Garcia was a “known human smuggler, MS-13 gang member, an individual who was a wife beater.”

Then, on Sept. 5, CBS said that it will now only broadcast live or live-to-tape interviews, meaning guests’ answers will not be edited in any way—except in situations where legal or national security reasons require it. The broadcaster said it was changing its editorial policy “in response to audience feedback.”

“This extra measure means the television audience will see the full, unedited interview on CBS and we will continue our practice of posting full transcripts and the unedited video online,” a CBS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

The Noem interview is the second time in less than a year that CBS has figured into disputes over alleged selective editing.

Last fall, then-presidential candidate Trump sued CBS, alleging that a “60 Minutes” interview with Democratic challenger and then-Vice President Kamala Harris had been manipulated to improve her image and boost her chances in the 2024 election.

CBS defended the editing of the Harris interview, saying that transcripts and videos of the full interview showed that the broadcast “was not doctored or deceitful.”

The uncut transcript showed that some of Harris’s answers were cut roughly in half while also clarifying her full response to a question about the Israel–Hamas war, which Trump’s campaign alleged was deceptively edited to make her look better to potential voters.

Later, Trump amended his complaint to include CBS parent company Paramount Global as a defendant, while doubling the amount of damages sought to $20 billion.

Paramount ultimately settled that case in July for $16 million, while denying any wrongdoing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 09:55

Released Comey Memos Reveal Obama Admin's Endorsement Of Russian Hoax

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Newly unclassified memos from disgraced former FBI Director James Comey confirmed that the Obama administration not only welcomed the Russia meddling hoax but also discussed potential post-election actions.

Journalist Catherine Herridge first shared the October 2016 memos on X on Friday after FBI Director Kash Patel approved their declassification.

In one memo, Comey asked, “What is the goal? Informing US people? Disrupting Russians.”

Elsewhere, he contemplated potential steps after President Donald Trump’s election in 2016.

“What are the circumstances in which we can imagine taking any action after the election,” Comey wrote.

“I can’t picture it so why threaten any.”

Exclusive @Comey Handwritten Notes Reveal Obama Administration Embraced Russia Narrative + Internal Debates Course of Action

Declassified via @FBIDirectorKash

October 2016 ‘Election Update’

'What are the circumstances in which we can imagine taking action AFTER the… https://t.co/hpmsahDsGv pic.twitter.com/ppOblHfIxg

— Catherine Herridge (@C__Herridge) September 4, 2025

One note, titled “My Thoughts,” referenced the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former Rep. (now Sen.) Adam Schiff, both California Democrats, as putting the FBI “in odd spot.”

The context behind this last note is unclear.

On another page, Comey used the acronym “COS,” likely referring to a chief of staff.

He also entertained the Russia meddling theory.

“Russians have a view on who should win,” he wrote, adding:

“SR (Susan Rice/National Security Adviser) •Need IC (intelligence Community) to do their best lay down of what we could say publicly.”

The memos suggest the outgoing Obama administration embraced the idea that Russia wanted Trump to win the election—a theory that later evolved into claims that Trump colluded with Russia.

No evidence has ever been produced to substantiate this claim.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 09:20

Cost Of Living Is The Biggest Challenge Americans Face

While inflation has long come down from its 2021/2022 highs, when it peaked at 9 percent, it is still slightly elevated at 2.7 percent.

More importantly though, people are still struggling to cope with the lasting effects of the inflation crisis.

As Statista's Felix Richter shows in the following chart, according to a new Consumer Insights survey conducted in June and July 2025, 49 percent of U.S. adults said that the high cost of living was one of the biggest challenges they currently face – making it by far the most common answer.

You will find more infographics at Statista

It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 22.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that.

Food prices have are up 25 percent, rents have increased almost 27 percent and transportation prices are up 28 percent.

And yet, nominal wages have only grown 21.8 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were almost five years ago.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 08:45

WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A "Major Military Engagement" Within Six Months

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

French hospitals have been advised to prepare for a large scale war by next year, in a government letter that was leaked to the media.

There are reports that the French Ministry of Health has informed hospitals to prepare for a “major [military] engagement” by March of 2026.

The letter allegedly states that between 10,000 to 50,000 people are to be expected in hospitals.

NEW: French hospitals told to prepare for war by next year, according to a leaked government letter.

According to The Independent, the French Ministry of Health told hospitals to prepare for a “major [military] engagement” by March of 2026.

The letter allegedly warned that… pic.twitter.com/DLrjtm5VAR

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 6, 2025

The leaked letter also reportedly explains that mass casualties are to be expected not just from its own forces, but wounded soldiers from across Europe, and that France would be acting as a ‘rear base’.

It outlines how French hospitals would need to prepare for up to 50 THOUSAND beds allocated to wounded civilians and military personnel EVERY MONTH.

The Ministry of Health also noted that it is considering the creation of medical centers near ports and airports.

*  *  *

​Iodine for the prepared...

*  *  *

“In the current international context, it is necessary to anticipate the modalities of health support in situations of high-intensity conflict,” the Ministry of Health letter reportedly notes.

 

The report adds that Health Minister Catherine Vautrin has not denied the authenticity of letter, claiming that it is “part of preparation.”

“It’s part of preparation, like strategic stockpiles, like epidemics,” Vautrin stated.

She added, “Hospitals are constantly preparing for epidemics and patient intake. The fact that the country is preparing for crises and assessing the consequences of what is happening [in the world] is completely normal.”

“I wasn’t in office at the time of Covid-19, remember, there were no words harsh enough to describe the country’s lack of preparedness,” she further stated.

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard about this.

Earlier this year, the French government sent a ‘survival manual’ to every household in France warning them of an ‘imminent threat to the country’.

Meanwhile, Germany’s military chief says NATO will be on alert as Russia prepares for Zapad 2025, a massive joint drill with Belarus which has been described as a dress rehearsal for a real invasion.

NATO chief Mark Rutte has warned that the world is “on the brink of WW3”, claiming a dual assault from China on Taiwan and Russia on NATO territory could spark a global conflict.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 08:10

Mapping The Passport Power Of Major Nations In 2025

In 2025, Singapore retains its title as the country with the world’s most powerful passport, with visa-free access to 193 destinations.

In the data table below, Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte shows the full list of major countries and the number of visa-free access their passport provides:

Singapore’s passport power reflects the country’s strong international relations and economic stability.

Japan and South Korea follow closely with access to 190 destinations each, continuing Asia’s dominance in passport strength.

Passport Power of European and English-Speaking Countries

European countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all rank highly with access to 189 destinations.

European countries all generally have strong passports, with Switzerland the lowest among the major European nations at 187 visa-free destinations.

In terms of native English-speaking countries, the UK (186), Australia (185), and Canada (184) outpace the U.S., which now grants visa-free access to 182 destinations.

The Weaker Passports Among Major Countries

Among larger emerging markets, Brazil and Argentina have moderately high access (170 destinations), while Russia and Türkiye fall further behind at 114.

Notably, China (83), India (58), and Vietnam (50) sit near the bottom of the list, reflecting limited travel freedom despite their large populations and growing global roles.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out the countries that lead in terms of tax competitiveness on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 07:35

EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Protectionism, Politics, And US Pressure Explained

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

After a two-decade stalemate, there is now movement in the trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur states of South America. Donald Trump’s hardline policies have made this possible, while criticism comes from the usual suspects.

A quarter of a century ago, in 2000, trade talks began between the EU and the Mercosur states – Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, with Venezuela joining in the meantime. Mercosur aims to reduce trade barriers, establish an integrated customs regime, and create its own internal market, similar to European structures.

The Struggle of Protectionists

It has always been a tough negotiation, but on Wednesday, the European Commission approved the version of the agreement last presented at the end of 2024. The core point is the reduction of tariffs on the majority of goods, covering European industrial products such as machinery, vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, as well as South American agricultural and raw material exports. At the same time, the agreement provides trade quotas and protective measures to shield sensitive sectors—especially European agriculture—from incoming competition. Around 350 geographical indications are intended to protect the uniqueness of European products—EU protectionism in its purest form.

Under no circumstances should the Mercosur agreement be called a free trade agreement, even if political feuilletons like to do so. The idea that open competition is the best consumer protection and the most efficient way to supply markets is still far from reality in both South America and the European Union.

Hidden Trade Barriers

Another focus of the agreement is on sustainability and regulation: Mercosur companies must comply with EU environmental and social standards and provide proof of “deforestation-free” production and adherence to the EU’s carbon taxonomy. The agreement also includes mechanisms for investment protection and corporate dispute resolution, providing legal certainty for both sides. In this regulatory arena, Brussels defines its protectionist power, surrounding trade relations with non-European states with wall after wall of non-tariff barriers.

Just as Europeans have historically struggled to allow free trade when it threatened existing economic privileges, South Americans have also been reluctant. As a result, the Mercosur agreement long remained a “ghost contract,” was revived in 2016, and now—partly under pressure from the Americans—appears attractive for both sides as a means to strengthen mutual trade and provide economic impetus to the slow-growing regions.

South America Under Pressure

Resource-rich South America has long realized that the era of the great export boom is over—primarily due to China’s ongoing economic crisis. Growth rates today are significantly below the levels of the early 2000s, averaging only around 2.5 percent. At the same time, unemployment is slowly rising, and public debt is significantly higher—in Brazil, for example, around 77 percent of GDP. Except for the special case of Argentina, which has pursued a radically market-oriented course, the pressure to act is high everywhere.

New markets must be opened, especially for raw materials and agricultural exports. This is why the Mercosur agreement with the EU is again gaining attractiveness for South American states, provided it can at least partially breach the EU’s high protective barriers.

The rub from a European perspective is that the politically influential but economically marginal agricultural lobby—especially in France—will do everything possible to keep South American competition at bay.

No Consensus Required

The European Commission has split the agreement into two parts before the voting process to pass the trade component more quickly with a qualified majority, bypassing the unanimity requirement in the Council for this section. Signing the commercial part does not require unanimity in the EU Council. For ratification of the trade section, a qualified majority in the Council of Ministers is sufficient—at least 55 percent of member states representing at least 65 percent of the EU population, which is considered likely. The European Parliament must also approve the trade section by simple majority.

The political part of the agreement, covering human rights, environmental, and social standards, is considered a “mixed agreement” and must be ratified unanimously by all national parliaments. Here, a single member state can block progress.

France’s Agricultural Lobby Will Be Compensated

Besides Polish and Italian interest groups, France remains especially critical. Given domestic political tensions, such as the upcoming vote on social spending, the country risks becoming a brake on the Mercosur agreement. It is conceivable that France will use every lobbying tool in the Euro Council before voting on the second part, which covers human rights and environmental standards, to slow down ratification.

While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed satisfaction with the negotiation result in a post on X, France remains critical but is open to the protective mechanisms proposed by the European Commission. Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin described the agricultural protection clause as “a step in the right direction” and announced a thorough review. Previously, the government had criticized the agreement as “unacceptable,” mainly due to cheap beef imports from the Mercosur region.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is attempting to mitigate concerns through temporary import restrictions and a €6.3 billion crisis fund for farmers—the approval of the opposition is once again essentially bought with taxpayers’ money, and enthusiasm for free markets remains minimal. President Macron expressed substantive concerns but refrained from outright opposition to a procedure that allows ratification without unanimity. Agricultural organizations continue their protests, while the farmers’ association FNSEA is increasingly integrated into government policy and less insistent on import protection.

Pressure from Washington

If an agreement is eventually reached between Mercosur and the EU, much of the credit goes to pressure from Washington. Donald Trump, above all, put massive pressure on European exporters through his tariff regime, forcing the opening of new markets.

If Mercosur states largely accept European climate and social rules and EU institutions pass the agreement, the European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen would achieve a first victory after the debacle with the U.S. Final negotiations in Brussels are expected later this year.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/07/2025 - 07:00