Zero Hedge

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.”  Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times.  Looks like Dowd called it correctly.  

So, when does the panic kick in?  Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up..."

"Private credit is the first to show problems.  We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof.  We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof.  This is all private credit.  We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof.  Private credit is just like subprime.  It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects.  

So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle.  We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies. 

People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. 

As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”

Dowd sees much lower prices for homes.  Dowd says,

“There is a distinct problem between homes for sale and homes sold, meaning there are a lot of people wanting to sell their homes and not a lot of people buying them. 

The inventory continues to grow. . .. The only way this clears is through price.  The price of homes is going lower. 

We had an overbuild in multi-family housing because of the illegal immigrants.  Those deals are going sour and rolling over. 

Rents are coming down. . .. It’s all slowly going the wrong way, and it will become a mainstream topic in 2026.”

In past interviews, Dowd points out there was massive fraud in the Biden Administration, especially in unemployment figures. 

That, too, will all be revealed.  This is why Dowd pointed out last year that President Trump “Inherited a Turd of an Economy.”

What is working are precious metals, especially gold.  Dowd does not see gold losing its shine anytime soon.  Dowd says,

“If we get any kind of credit crisis, gold may get sold temporarily where people sell what they can, but not what they want.  Long term, gold looks like it’s going to $10,000 an ounce on the charts by 2030.  Everything is conspiring fundamentally and technically to lead us that way.  They made gold a Tier 1 asset.  

That makes gold money again in the banking system. . .. I would not get scared out of my physical gold position anytime soon.”

Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors.  China is a lot weaker than anyone can imagine.  Dowd says,

“Not only does China have long-term structural problems, our report identifies a very acute part of their real estate crisis, which is beginning now and accelerating into 2026. . .. China is struggling mightily.  We have more bargaining chips than a lot of us think.  When I hear things like ‘China holds all the cards and Trump is screwed,’ I laugh.”

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 16:20

Watch: Top Biden Official Belatedly Admits Ukraine War Truth Bombshell

Watch: Top Biden Official Belatedly Admits Ukraine War Truth Bombshell

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is way behind the times. On Sunday he very belatedly expressed willingness to drop Ukraine's bid to join NATO. In place of this, he's seeking robust security guarantees. "We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5-like guarantees ... as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others," Zelensky told journalists in a group chat, as reported in Financial Times.

"These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression," he said. "And this is already a compromise on our part." But this should have been taken off the table all the way back in February of 2022, on the eve of the Russian invasion, or even well before. He's much too late 'offering' this 'concession' just as White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner are meeting Sunday in Berlin with Zelensky, and then separately with the national security advisers of Germany, France and the UK.

The open secret has for years been that the Washington and EU establishments know full well that it was historic and recent constant NATO expansion which led to this horrific, grinding war. This reality is so well understood that in their private, non-official commentary even former top Biden officials fully admit the fact. Yet these same Biden officials had while in government pursued policies fueling the Ukrainian proxy war as they wanted to 'weaken' Russia. They considered the issue of NATO expansion as a prime rationale of Russia's invasion to be an off-limits talking point. Indeed for any sincere, independent commentators... to so much as raise the issue would get them smeared as a "Putin apologist". But watch this recent and highly revealing clip below of Joe Biden's top official for Europe and former national security official Amanda Sloat admitting the truth:

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 15:45

Watch: Top Biden Official Belatedly Admits Ukraine War Truth Bombshell

Watch: Top Biden Official Belatedly Admits Ukraine War Truth Bombshell

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is way behind the times. On Sunday he very belatedly expressed willingness to drop Ukraine's bid to join NATO. In place of this, he's seeking robust security guarantees. "We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5-like guarantees ... as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others," Zelensky told journalists in a group chat, as reported in Financial Times.

"These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression," he said. "And this is already a compromise on our part." But this should have been taken off the table all the way back in February of 2022, on the eve of the Russian invasion, or even well before. He's much too late 'offering' this 'concession' just as White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner are meeting Sunday in Berlin with Zelensky, and then separately with the national security advisers of Germany, France and the UK.

The open secret has for years been that the Washington and EU establishments know full well that it was historic and recent constant NATO expansion which led to this horrific, grinding war. This reality is so well understood that in their private, non-official commentary even former top Biden officials fully admit the fact. Yet these same Biden officials had while in government pursued policies fueling the Ukrainian proxy war as they wanted to 'weaken' Russia. They considered the issue of NATO expansion as a prime rationale of Russia's invasion to be an off-limits talking point. Indeed for any sincere, independent commentators... to so much as raise the issue would get them smeared as a "Putin apologist". But watch this recent and highly revealing clip below of Joe Biden's top official for Europe and former national security official Amanda Sloat admitting the truth:

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 15:45

Gunman Who Killed 3 Americans In Syria Was Member of Syrian Government Forces

Gunman Who Killed 3 Americans In Syria Was Member of Syrian Government Forces

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

The gunman who killed two members of the Iowa National Guard and an American civilian interpreter in an attack in Palmyra, central Syria, on Saturday was a member of the Syrian government’s security forces, according to the Syrian Interior Ministry.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) first reported that the attacker was a member of the security forces and called for the Syrian government, which is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, to get rid of members who have an "ISIS ideology."

The Syrian Interior Ministry claimed that, before the attack, Syrian authorities had "decided to fire him" for having "extremist Islamist ideology" and had planned to do so on Sunday. "We discovered him in December and were going to dismiss him, but we didn’t make it in time because it was a holiday," said ministry spokesman Nour al-Din al-Baba, according to The Cradle.

US Army Sergeant with a translator & two Syrian soldiers during a training in Syria on April 30, 2025. US Army photo

A Syrian security official told AFP that the attacker had been in the security forces "for more than 10 months and was posted to several cities before being transferred to Palmyra."

According to Wael Essam, a Palestinian journalist who has covered the conflict in Syria for many years, the perpetrator has been identified as Tariq Satouf al-Hamd from the Aleppo countryside. Essam said that al-Hamd was previously a member of ISIS, but after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, he traveled to Idlib, the former home base of HTS, and joined the General Security.

The attack occurred when US military officers were meeting with Syrian Interior Ministry officials while US and Syrian troops stood guard at a base near the city of Palmyra. According to The Wall Street Journal, a lone gunman appeared in a window and opened fire on the US and Syrian soldiers, and he was pursued by Syrian troops and killed. However, according to Essam’s report, the attacker blew himself up.

"The attacker tried to reach the meeting room in the headquarters of the General Security in Palmyra (formerly the Military Security headquarters) where senior officers are present, and in the corridor he clashed with the American guards and the translator and blew himself up," Essam wrote on X.

Essam also suggested that other members of the Syrian security forces were involved in the attack. "Security sources confirmed to me that Syrian intelligence, along with the Coalition forces, arrested six elements from the General Security at the headquarters in Palmyra, accused of coordinating the operation with him, and it is said that they are from the group that moved with him from the desert to the General Security in Idlib," he said.

He added that Syrian authorities were “unable to identify his previous affiliation with the organization (ISIS), and there are hundreds like him, due to the large numbers who joined and which the security apparatus needed after the fall of the regime.”

President Trump and other US officials have called the incident an "ISIS attack" and have left out the detail that the perpetrator was a member of the Syrian military, which the US has allied itself with despite HTS’s al-Qaeda past, and as of Sunday, ISIS hasn’t taken credit for the shooting.

"This was an ISIS attack against the US, and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria, that is not fully controlled by them," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

He added that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is "extremely angry" about the attack. Trump recently hosted Sharaa at the White House despite his past as an al-Qaeda leader and ally of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder of ISIS.

The Syrian government itself has contradicted the below Trump claims...

Both Trump and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth vowed there would be retaliation for the attack, and according to the SOHR, there’s been an escalation of US operations in the region, including surveillance flights and arrests of people on suspicion of "affiliating with ISIS and/or adopting its ideology."

The Syrian government has also announced its escalating operations against Syria. During Sharaa’s visit to the Oval Office, his government officially joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition despite its al-Qaeda links and many of its soldiers having a similar ideology to ISIS, putting US troops operating in Syria at risk of insider attacks.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 15:10

Gunman Who Killed 3 Americans In Syria Was Member of Syrian Government Forces

Gunman Who Killed 3 Americans In Syria Was Member of Syrian Government Forces

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com

The gunman who killed two members of the Iowa National Guard and an American civilian interpreter in an attack in Palmyra, central Syria, on Saturday was a member of the Syrian government’s security forces, according to the Syrian Interior Ministry.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) first reported that the attacker was a member of the security forces and called for the Syrian government, which is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, to get rid of members who have an "ISIS ideology."

The Syrian Interior Ministry claimed that, before the attack, Syrian authorities had "decided to fire him" for having "extremist Islamist ideology" and had planned to do so on Sunday. "We discovered him in December and were going to dismiss him, but we didn’t make it in time because it was a holiday," said ministry spokesman Nour al-Din al-Baba, according to The Cradle.

US Army Sergeant with a translator & two Syrian soldiers during a training in Syria on April 30, 2025. US Army photo

A Syrian security official told AFP that the attacker had been in the security forces "for more than 10 months and was posted to several cities before being transferred to Palmyra."

According to Wael Essam, a Palestinian journalist who has covered the conflict in Syria for many years, the perpetrator has been identified as Tariq Satouf al-Hamd from the Aleppo countryside. Essam said that al-Hamd was previously a member of ISIS, but after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, he traveled to Idlib, the former home base of HTS, and joined the General Security.

The attack occurred when US military officers were meeting with Syrian Interior Ministry officials while US and Syrian troops stood guard at a base near the city of Palmyra. According to The Wall Street Journal, a lone gunman appeared in a window and opened fire on the US and Syrian soldiers, and he was pursued by Syrian troops and killed. However, according to Essam’s report, the attacker blew himself up.

"The attacker tried to reach the meeting room in the headquarters of the General Security in Palmyra (formerly the Military Security headquarters) where senior officers are present, and in the corridor he clashed with the American guards and the translator and blew himself up," Essam wrote on X.

Essam also suggested that other members of the Syrian security forces were involved in the attack. "Security sources confirmed to me that Syrian intelligence, along with the Coalition forces, arrested six elements from the General Security at the headquarters in Palmyra, accused of coordinating the operation with him, and it is said that they are from the group that moved with him from the desert to the General Security in Idlib," he said.

He added that Syrian authorities were “unable to identify his previous affiliation with the organization (ISIS), and there are hundreds like him, due to the large numbers who joined and which the security apparatus needed after the fall of the regime.”

President Trump and other US officials have called the incident an "ISIS attack" and have left out the detail that the perpetrator was a member of the Syrian military, which the US has allied itself with despite HTS’s al-Qaeda past, and as of Sunday, ISIS hasn’t taken credit for the shooting.

"This was an ISIS attack against the US, and Syria, in a very dangerous part of Syria, that is not fully controlled by them," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

He added that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is "extremely angry" about the attack. Trump recently hosted Sharaa at the White House despite his past as an al-Qaeda leader and ally of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder of ISIS.

The Syrian government itself has contradicted the below Trump claims...

Both Trump and US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth vowed there would be retaliation for the attack, and according to the SOHR, there’s been an escalation of US operations in the region, including surveillance flights and arrests of people on suspicion of "affiliating with ISIS and/or adopting its ideology."

The Syrian government has also announced its escalating operations against Syria. During Sharaa’s visit to the Oval Office, his government officially joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition despite its al-Qaeda links and many of its soldiers having a similar ideology to ISIS, putting US troops operating in Syria at risk of insider attacks.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 15:10

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