Zero Hedge

Winnebago Slashes Guidance As RV Slump Deepens; Management Uses Cautious Tone

Winnebago Slashes Guidance As RV Slump Deepens; Management Uses Cautious Tone

Shares of Winnebago Industries plunged nearly 10% on Wednesday after the recreational vehicle maker—best known for its travel campers—slashed its full-year outlook, citing persistent pressure on consumer demand from mounting macroeconomic headwinds and elevated borrowing costs. The RV industry downturn, now well entrenched, has been underway since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in early 2022.

"Growing macroeconomic uncertainty led to a notable downshift in RV activity from consumers and dealers as the third quarter progressed," Winnebago CEO Michael Happe told Wall Street analysts on a call yesterday. 

Happe told the analysts that "these challenges are likely to continue through the remainder of the calendar year as anticipated by the RV Industry Associations." 

He said that for 2025, "We are lowering our industry forecast for wholesale RV shipments to a range of 315k to 335k units, with a midpoint of 325k units." The previous forecast was 320k to 350k units, with a median of 335k units.

The company now expects net revenue between $2.7 billion and $2.8 billion for the year, down from its previous guidance of $2.8 billion to $3 billion. This is compared with an estimate $2.76 billion (Bloomberg Consensus). The company also lowered its adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $1.20 to $1.70 per share, down from $2.75 to $3.75, compared to the estimate of $1.80.

Winnebago is one of the major players in the recreational vehicle space, which was hit hard in a multi-year downturn, mainly due to soaring interest rates during Fed Chair Powell's hiking cycle. 

The takeaway for the third fiscal quarter, which ended in May, is that solid performance in the marine and motorhome segments helped offset weakness in the towables segment, although profitability and earnings declined sharply year-over-year.

Winnebago Q3 FY2025 Summary (YoY % Change)

  • Adjusted EPS: $0.81 (▼28% YoY) — missed estimate of $0.83

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $46.5M (▼20%) — beat estimate of $45.5M

  • Operating Income: $30.2M (▼31%) — missed estimate of $31.8M

  • Net Revenue: $775.1M (▼1.4%) — in line with estimate of $774.8M

Segment Breakdown:

  • Motorhome: $291.2M (▼2.6%) — beat est. $272.9M

  • Towables: $371.7M (▼3.8%) — missed est. $401.4M

  • Marine: $100.7M (▲15%) — beat est. $97.2M

Shares are flat in pre-market trading, but Wednesday's session was a bloodbath—with the stock puking nearly 10% to its lowest level since April 2020. The chart below overlays Winnebago's share price with the Fed's rate-hiking cycle. Note the lagging effect, followed by a sharp selloff as demand collapses under the weight of rising interest rates; in other words, demand falls off a cliff.

First takes by Wall Street analysts were mostly cautious (courtesy of Bloomberg):

CFRA (hold)

  • "Management's tone was understandably cautious in light of soft consumer discretionary spending and uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts," analyst Garrett Nelson tells Bloomberg News in an email

  • "The big question is whether or not US RV sales have bottomed, which will determine the timing of the company's earnings recovery," he adds

Truist (buy, PT $40)

  • Analyst Michael Swartz says Towable RV share gains headline an "otherwise difficult" 3Q for WGO

  • "The cat was already out of the bag with regard to the FY3Q miss and incrementally more challenged view of the motorized business (namely, the Winnebago branded business)"

Roth (neutral, PT $37)

  • Analyst Scott Stember says WGO's adjusted 3Q25 EPS of $0.81 came in above his "tempered" expectations

  • "WGO formally lowered '25 adjusted EPS guidance to new range of $1.20-$1.70, noting that the company did not update the year when pre-releasing Q3 last month"

BMO Capital (outperform, PT $50)

  • Analyst Tristan Thomas-Martin says WGO's 3Q EPS of $0.81 came in just ahead of BMO's $0.76 estimate, which was recently lowered following WGO's preliminary release, but within WGO's preliminary range of $0.75 to $0.85

  • "Management commentary around retail demand remains cautious, and FY2025 guidance was reduced with FY4Q25 implied guidance coming in below the Street but closer to where we believe investors were"

It's a great time for anyone who didn't panic-buy an RV during the Covid boom—heavy discounting is seen at various RV retail chains as inventory builds across the market. As for bottom fishing, WGO... needs an interest rate-cutting cycle for earnings recover. Certainly a stock to add to the watch list. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 07:20

Mexico Uses Biden Regime Playbook In Attempt To Hinder Elon Musk's Rocket Launches

Mexico Uses Biden Regime Playbook In Attempt To Hinder Elon Musk's Rocket Launches

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, aligned with far-left politics, is using environmental concerns to challenge Elon Musk's SpaceX, echoing rogue tactics used by the U.S. Democratic Party in an attempt to derail rocket launches. 

Bloomberg reports that President Sheinbaum has accused SpaceX's rocket launches from Starbase, Texas, of polluting Mexican territory with rocket debris.

The social justice warrior president will meet with her cabinet in the near term on the "security and environmental impacts" of the rocket launches. 

She said the government is "reviewing what laws have been violated" and based on that review will "file the necessary lawsuits, adding, "There is indeed contamination." 

The Democrat-aligned financial media outlet in New York cited a report from Mexico's La Jornada, which described how a local environmental group in Tamaulipas discovered rocket debris.

Sheinbaum's move echoes tactics seen in the U.S., where federal agencies under the Biden-Harris regime were weaponized against Musk to delay commercial rocket launches with environmental concerns.  

The larger question now is whether America's foreign adversaries—severely lagging far behind SpaceX in the space race—are quietly influencing President Sheinbaum to disrupt or delay Starbase launches, allowing them time to catch up.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 06:55

How To Free America From EU Censorship

How To Free America From EU Censorship

Authored by John Rosenthal via Clairemont Review,

On January 20, 2025, the first day of his second presidential term, Donald Trump signed an executive order: “Restoring Freedom of Speech and Ending Federal Censorship.” The bad old days of the “censorship-industrial complex,” allegedly responsible for suppressing online speech under President Joe Biden, were over.

Except they weren’t. The driving force behind online censorship had never been the U.S. government, which meant that freedom of speech could not be restored by the stroke of a president’s pen. Rather, the European Union has wielded its Digital Services Act (DSA) to restrict the speech not just of Europeans but especially of Americans and other English-speakers. The E.U. has not violated the free-speech rights of Americans, since it has no obligations under the U.S. Constitution. But it has vitiated those rights, essentially nullifying the First Amendment in cyberspace.

The DSA is not a “threat” to free speech, as some American commentators put it, implying that possible danger lies in the future. Because the DSA is in force now, all major online platforms and search engines must comply with it to remain on the E.U. market. There is effectively no free speech on the internet nowadays, at least not on the major platforms falling under the DSA’s strictest provisions, but only more or less heavily curated, algorithmically managed speech.

Some supporters of President Trump might find this hard to believe. After all, the president’s most prominent ally and advisor is Elon Musk, whose purchase of Twitter in 2022 was said to be motivated by a desire to restore free speech to the platform. But Musk has always insisted that “freedom of speech is not freedom of reach,” and there’s the rub. Using platform algorithms to restrict reach artificially is a form of censorship, one that is not only compatible with the DSA but even encouraged by the E.U.

The Trump Administration can truly restore free speech to the internet only by confronting the European Union. The administration needs to challenge the DSA, to get it repealed or at least neutered. If the E.U. refuses to back down, then the administration will need to work with Congress to pass a law ensuring that American tech companies cannot comply with the DSA by restricting Americans’ First Amendment rights.

Germany Censors the World

H.L. Mencken once said that “freedom of the press is limited to those who own one.” But the advent of the internet and the rise of blogs around the turn of the 21st century made Mencken’s observation obsolete. Now, virtually everyone could be a publisher, with the only barrier to entry being the price of an internet connection. The democratic potential of this development is obvious. The rise of social media extended it further, allowing us, in effect, to publish our every passing thought.

The boundary between private conversation and public debate had been blurred and the distinction between freedom of speech and freedom of the press had thus been effaced. Freedom of speech had precisely become freedom of reach.

This development was not universally welcome. Beginning about a decade ago, Germany and then the European Union as a whole launched a series of initiatives that treated the burgeoning of online speech as a threat rather than an opportunity. These first took the form of task forces or “codes of conduct” into which online platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter were enlisted on an ostensibly voluntary basis. The earliest efforts were devoted to “hate speech,” some forms of which are even illegal in Germany and other European countries, in which freedom of speech does not enjoy protection equivalent to America’s First Amendment. In 2016 the European Commission unrolled a Code of Conduct on Countering Illegal Hate Speech Online, one year after Germany had organized a task force on the same issue. These “voluntary” arrangements soon gave way to binding laws requiring platforms to restrict speech or face penalties.

Already in the early days of the internet, American lawmakers had recognized that the new communications technology’s great potential would be severely constrained if internet service providers or intermediate users, such as hosted forums, were held liable for everything that other users said and/or did in using their services or platforms. In 1996 Congress thus stipulated in Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act: No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.” This meant that all internet users would be responsible for their own words. The intermediate services that merely enabled them to be published would neither bear nor share in the responsibility.

Twenty years later, German and European legislators took the opposite approach, insisting that online platforms would bear not only liability but indeed special liabilities for what users said or posted on them. First the so-called Network Enforcement Act or “NetzDG” in Germany in 2017 and then the E.U.’s 2022 Digital Services Act touted this approach under the motto “What is illegal offline, should be illegal online.” But what was illegal offline still was illegal online anyway. This was never the issue. The issue was who is to be held accountable for it.

As Congress realized in 1996, if the platforms were held accountable, then they would be forced to censor. Indeed, they would be forced to censor much more than just illegal content, since they could not know in advance what exactly the competent judicial authorities would judge to be illegal. As Facebook’s German subsidiary put it in 2017 in a statement objecting to the NetzDG legislation, they would have to apply the principle “in dubio pro deleo” [sic]: when in doubt, delete!

There was another problem. “What is illegal offline, should be illegal online” is all well and good—but illegal in what jurisdiction? Many utterances illegal in Germany would clearly be protected speech in America. But the internet is global. Germany’s NetzDG, in effect, extended German laws to the entire world. The real practical import of the law was “What is illegal offline in Germany, should be illegal online everywhere.”

This was made abundantly clear by the NetzDG notices that many American and other English-speaking Twitter users received. Even if the notices typically concluded reassuringly that users’ posts were not in contravention of German law, they left them understandably wondering why their posts had to comply with German law in the first place. What’s more, despite the reassurances, Seth Dillon of the satirical website The Babylon Bee determined that his account would be locked and remain so until he deleted content that had been “reported by people from Germany.”

The E.U. as Arbiter of Truth Itself

Such notices would disappear once the Digital Services Act went into effect. The DSA also superseded NetzDG in Germany, but the same principle applies. The world’s online discourse is now subject to E.U. law, which means, in turn, subject to all the speech laws of each of the 27 E.U. member states. Individuals or “entities” can still report offending content to the platforms. National authorities can name “trusted flaggers” whose reports are given priority treatment. And, under the DSA’s Article 9, both member states and the European Commission can simply issue orders requiring action against specified content. Noncompliant platforms face ruinous fines of up to 6% of their global turnover.

Under the DSA regime, however, platforms are expected to censor much more than just illegal speech. They must also act against alleged mis- or disinformation—not on the grounds that it is illegal, but on the grounds that it is “harmful.” The DSA thus extends online censorship from so-called hate speech to purely factual discourse. In so doing, it makes the European Commission and, in a subsidiary role, E.U. national authorities not just arbiters of compliance with their own laws but arbiters of truth itself.

Already in 2018, the European Commission had rolled out a second “code,” the Code of Practice on Disinformation, to supplement the 2016 Hate Speech Code. Under its aegis, the Commission then launched a dedicated program for specifically combatting COVID-19 “disinformation” in June 2020. In the meantime, in December 2019, incoming Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had first unveiled the DSA as her hallmark piece of legislation, the very purpose of which was to turn the “voluntary” commitments undertaken under the Codes into legal obligations.

Online censorship of alleged COVID-19 mis- or disinformation represented a watershed in the history of free speech and censorship in the West. In light of internal communications revealed in Elon Musk’s “Twitter Files” publications, and several highly publicized though unsuccessful lawsuits inspired by them, many Americans would come to believe that online platforms were censoring lockdown skeptics and COVID-19 vaccine critics at the behest of the Biden Administration. Never mind that the censorship was already well underway by mid-2020, while Donald Trump was still president. Indeed, the Twitter account of the Zero Hedge website was already suspended at the end of January 2020 for posting an article on a potential lab origin of the new coronavirus—a hypothesis President Trump endorsed.

In any case, thanks to the First Amendment, the Biden Administration never had any stick with which to threaten the platforms. It could ask them to remove posts or suspend accounts, but the platforms could always decline.

The European Commission, however, was not just making occasional, informal requests. Under its “Fighting COVID-19 Disinformation Monitoring Programme,” all the major online platforms and search engines were required to report, first monthly and later every other month, on their efforts to suppress such “disinformation.” Twitter, for example, complied by submitting detailed statistics on “global” content removals and account suspensions. This meant that content was being removed and accounts suspended all around the world, to satisfy the European Commission.

There was no need for anyone to reveal private communications with E.U. officials to find out about this. The program was public, and the companies’ reports on their censorship activities were made available in a public archive, even if almost no one paid attention. (For more, see “The EU Files: What Elon Musk Is Not Telling You About Twitter Censorship,” by Robert Kogon, published by the Brownstone Institute, February 22, 2023.)

Moreover, the Commission did have something with which to threaten the platforms: namely, the impending DSA fines. By June 2020, the tech companies had had ample time to read the legislation and knew what was coming their way.

Some of them, including Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, having already been hit with fines in the hundreds of millions or even billions of euros by the Commission, were not going to take the Commission’s expectations lightly in the context of COVID-19. It is true, of course, that they were even less likely to do so after January 2021, with a new Democratic administration that, far from defending free speech, was asking them to do precisely what the E.U. was demanding.

The censorship reached a peak in summer of 2022 with a massive purge of thousands of COVID-dissident Twitter accounts, which left the owners of surviving accounts, like the American COVID-19 vaccine critic Alex Berenson, wondering “what is going on.”

But there ought not to have been any mystery. On July 5, the European Parliament passed the Digital Services Act—to the almost total indifference of the news media and public, in Europe as much as the United States. In combination with the Commission’s rollout three weeks earlier of a “strengthened” Code of Practice on Disinformation—consisting of a long list of far more stringent commitments than the original Code—it was inevitable that passage of the legislation would prompt swift and aggressive action on the part of the platforms. The DSA had arrived. Censorship was becoming law.

Censorship Goes Underground

Today, with Donald Trump having returned to the White House and the owner of X serving as his special advisor, Americans might well imagine that online censorship has already been defeated and free speech restored. But executive orders prohibiting federal censorship do nothing to accomplish this, since the American government was never able to require censorship from the tech companies in the first place. Complaints about a mythical “censorship-industrial complex” distract us from the reality of the E.U. regulatory regime and its transnational success in getting American companies to curtail Americans’ free-speech rights. Furthermore, Elon Musk is also complying with the E.U. censorship regime by curtailing Americans’ free-speech rights. Censorship has not disappeared from Twitter since his purchase and rebranding of the company as “X,” it has merely gone underground.

Account suspensions and content removals—the blunt instruments of censorship employed against COVID-19 “disinformation”—have indeed largely disappeared and seem to be used only in exceptional cases, presumably involving, as a rule, actual or alleged illegality. But the DSA also allows platforms to meet their obligations by way of “demotion” or “restriction of visibility.” In the same spirit, the 2022 “strengthened” Code of Practice commits platforms to mitigating the risk of “viral propagation” of disinformation by taking measures to reduce the latter’s “prevalence, views, or impressions.”

This, of course, is the essence of Elon Musk’s “freedom of speech is not freedom of reach,” a formulation that has allowed Musk to promote X as a “free speech platform” while still satisfying his obligations to censor “misinformation” and other allegedly harmful speech under the DSA. X does not need to remove such content to satisfy the E.U. It is enough, as X CEO Linda Yaccarino put it in a 2023 interview with CNBC, to make it “extraordinarily difficult to see.”

Misinformation “safety labels” are indeed built right into the published part of the X algorithm. These are not the famous “Misleading!” labels that would be prominently displayed on alleged COVID-19 misinformation under the old Twitter regime and that would lead to account suspension after “three strikes.”

Like the old “Misleading!” labels, the safety labels limit the shareability of posts to which they are applied, thereby satisfying E.U. demands. But unlike the “Misleading!” labels, the “safety labels” are not visible to the public. They are back-office labels that are only visible to platform administrators.

This means that while alleged “misinformation” is still being censored on X, unlike under the old regime we do not even know what the platform is treating as misinformation. The content in question simply disappears from public view without a trace. Since the algorithm can ensure that no one or hardly anyone is seeing them in the first place, this also eliminates the need to suspend the offending accounts.

As was true under the Fighting COVID-19 Disinformation program, platforms and search engines are required to submit publicly available reports quantifying their “content moderation” efforts under the DSA. Per X’s April 2024 “DSA Transparency Report,” during roughly just the prior five months the platform took enforcement action on 226,350 of 238,108 items reported to it by E.U. member states or the European Commission—or fully 95% of the reported items. Of the items, 40,331 were deleted and access to 62,802 items was blocked in the E.U. This means, however, that 123,217 items, over half, “merely” had their visibility restricted.

To appreciate the vast extent of the stealth censorship occurring on X, one must keep in mind that the above statistics are limited to content directly flagged by E.U. governmental authorities. They do not include content singled out by individuals, entities, or government-appointed “trusted flaggers.” Above all, they do not include the undoubtedly far larger swath of discourse proactively suppressed by X’s own automated systems or human content moderators to remain in the E.U.’s good graces.

X’s DSA Transparency Report specifies, incidentally, that 1,535 of the then-1,726 members of the platform’s content moderation team—or nearly 90% of them—spoke English as their main language. Nothing could make the overwhelmingly extra-European impact of the DSA more obvious. Post-Brexit, barely 1% of the E.U.’s own population speak English as their native language.

Lest readers have trouble reconciling the foregoing with the highly publicized proceedings against X that were already opened by the European Commission in December 2023, it should be noted that these proceedings, as they now stand, have nothing to do with the platform’s “content moderation” but only with other, more arcane aspects of the DSA. The original proceedings did indeed involve content moderation and could even have had a positive impact on freedom of speech, since X was supposed to be investigated not for failing to suppress user content, but rather for failing to inform users about it. But this aspect has been dropped.

An American Anti-Digital Services Act

So, what does the Trump Administration need to do to defeat E.U. censorship and restore genuine free speech to the internet? The First Amendment’s prohibition on Congress making any law “abridging the freedom of speech” was sufficient to secure free-speech rights for two centuries. But in 2025, when so much speech is online and foreign governments can thus make laws abridging Americans’ speech rights, it is not. This is what Germany did in 2017 when enacting NetzDG and what the E.U. did, to far greater effect, in 2022 when enacting the DSA.

But by what right should Germany or the E.U. be allowed to dictate what Americans can or cannot say? If the German government wants to censor Germans or the European Commission Europeans, that is one thing. But the American government has to make clear that if a foreign government wants to censor Americans or require American companies to do so on their behalf, then the U.S. will take action to defend its citizens’ rights.

Given that American companies are affected, the World Trade Organization could be one venue for challenging the DSA. The aim should be the outright abrogation of the DSA fines: no American company should be subject to fines or any other penalties from a foreign government for respecting Americans’ constitutionally guaranteed rights.

If, however, the E.U. refuses to back down, then the U.S. will need to make it illegal for American companies to cooperate with the E.U. and E.U. member-state governments—or any foreign government—in restricting Americans’ speech rights. The First Amendment prohibits Congress from making any law abridging the freedom of speech. But now, due to the DSA, it needs to enact a specific law protecting freedom of speech against foreign interference.

Such a law should give federal authorities the same draconian powers that the DSA gives the European Commission, but now in the cause of protecting speech rather than suppressing it. If the E.U. is going to fine American companies for respecting Americans’ free-speech rights, then the U.S. government is going to have to fine them for not doing so.

But the power to apply ruinous fines is not the only extraordinary enforcement power that the DSA gives the Commission. Under Article 69, it also gives it the power to conduct what are known as “dawn raids” in the case of suspected non-compliance: i.e., to have investigators break into and seal off company premises, inspect books or records in whatever form, and take away copies of or extracts from whatever books or records they deem relevant to their investigation. The U.S. government needs to have analogous search-and-seizure powers: to prevent the companies from cooperating with the Commission and/or E.U. member state governments. Federal investigators could thus find out exactly what communications the companies are having with the latter. They could find out, for instance, exactly what posts were targeted by the Commission and E.U. member states in the nearly 100,000 reports of “illegal or harmful speech” recorded in the above-cited data from X. If those posts constitute protected speech under American law, then X’s removal of them or restriction of their visibility would constitute a crime.

They could also find out exactly whose user information X has turned over to E.U. member state authorities in connection with such speech. Remarkably, the X data shows that there were nearly 3,000 such requests—or, more precisely, “orders” per Article 10 of the DSA. Nearly 90% of them came from Germany. If the U.S. government may not demand the information of users suspected of speech crimes or other wrong-speak, then surely American companies should not be permitted to provide Americans’ user information to foreign governments on such grounds. This too should be a crime.

Finally, the DSA gives the Commission the all-important power to demand access to social media and search engines’ algorithms (Articles 40, 69, and 72). The Commission has even hired its own programmers and established its own “European Centre for Algorithmic Transparency” (ECAT) to “support the enforcement of the Digital Services Act.”

U.S. investigators should have the same access to platform algorithms—to prevent DSA compliance. Any evidence of tweaking algorithms to satisfy the E.U.’s conceptions of “right-speak” and “wrong-speak” or “correct information” and “misinformation” should lead to sanctions. American online platforms should be neither vehicles of foreign propaganda (via algorithmic amplification) nor enforcers of foreign censorship (via algorithmic suppression).

If the E.U. still insists on its DSA powers when faced with an American law specifically prohibiting American companies from cooperating with the E.U. to censor Americans—or indeed censor any speech available to them—then the companies will simply have to choose. They can either be on the American market or the E.U. market. Or if they want to remain on both, then it will be up to them to find a technical modus vivendi that allows them to comply with both American and E.U. law: for example, by geo-blocking content in the E.U. If the implementation of this solution is financially onerous, as it undoubtedly would be, that is their problem. They can leave the E.U. market and avoid the costs. But censoring Americans’ speech to meet E.U. requirements would no longer be an option.

One thing Republican lawmakers should certainly not do is try to withdraw Section 230 protection from the tech companies as some kind of “punishment” for online censorship. This idea is based upon a fundamental misconception of the origins of online censorship and would only strengthen the hand of the enemies of free speech in the E.U.

The aim of America’s anti-Digital Services Act should be to restore the primacy of American law for Americans. But if freedom of speech is the good that the founders held it to be, then all users of the internet stand to benefit. If the European Union wants to build a new informational Iron Curtain, then that is its business. There is no reason for Americans to be held captive behind it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 06:30

These Are The Places That Rich People Are Leaving

These Are The Places That Rich People Are Leaving

Newly published data by Henley & Partners shows that while China and India were still losing the most millionaires (or billionaires) to emigration in 2023, the United Kingdom's millionaire flight is surging to the top position this year

Some British millionaires have said they are leaving due to the end of the non-domestic tax status rule in the country.

The Tax Justice Network points out that even with the increase, the share of of those departing is still very low compared to all millionaires.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, the 142,000 millionaires projected to be migrating this year only represent 0.2 of all millionaires globally, its release says.

After migration of the wealthy slumped during the pandemic years, a new high of 120,000 millionaires left their home countries in 2023.

After 2025's 142,000 individuals, wealth out-migration is expected to climb even higher to 165,000 in 2026.

 The Places That Rich People Are Leaving | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to the source, political stability, personal freedoms as well as tax and financial concerns were among the reasons millionaires decide to make these moves.

The war in Ukraine has led to an exodus of Russians - especially pronounced in 2022 and 2023 - that has seen new arrivals mainly in European cities.

The change represented a 33 percent reduction of Russian millionaires living in their country between 2021 and 2022.

The study covered only individuals with an investable wealth of at least $1 million, who took up residency in a new country and spent at least half of the year there.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 05:45

"Drag The EU Into A Direct Conflict" – Orbán Confronts Zelensky, Tells Him EU Was Created For Peace, Not War

"Drag The EU Into A Direct Conflict" – Orbán Confronts Zelensky, Tells Him EU Was Created For Peace, Not War

Via Remix News,

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is leading an effort to ensure Ukraine, which is currently at war with Russia, does not join the European Union due to the high potential for a conflict that could spread to all of Europe.

In this regard, he is now confronting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky directly on X on the issue.

“President (Zelensky), with all due respect: the European Union was founded to bring peace and prosperity to its member states. Accepting a country that is at war with Russia would immediately drag the EU into a direct conflict. It is unfair to expect any member state to take this risk,” wrote Orbán.

Orbán had responded to a post from Zelensky, in which the Ukrainian leader thanked EU leadership after a meeting, stating that they discussed, among other things, Ukraine’s ascension into the EU.

Citing his meeting with EU commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and European Council President António Costa, Zelensky called out Hungary.

“It is important that the leaders of the member states reach a common decision to open the first negotiation cluster. It is unfair when a single party blocks the Union’s decision. We also discussed in detail additional sanctions against the Russian Federation and the preparation of the EU’s 18th sanctions package.

This package must significantly increase pressure on Russia’s energy and banking sectors, as well as on the shadow fleet.

The key element here must be a strong price cap on Russian oil, and we count on the appropriate decisions. I thank the leaders for their support. Every step of assistance means lives saved,” he wrote.

Zelensky desires an accelerated process to gain EU membership, despite his country being the most corrupt country in Europe — a finding noted even before the war.

The rebuilding of Ukraine is expected to cost hundreds of billions of euros.

Currently, the country has no democracy or free press, as all elections have been suspended during the war.

Perhaps of greatest concern is that even if Ukraine is admitted to the EU during a ceasefire, hostilities could start again, which could drag Europe further into a new war.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 05:00

As 'Peace' Breaks Out, Here's Where US Military Facilities Are In The Middle East

As 'Peace' Breaks Out, Here's Where US Military Facilities Are In The Middle East

Amid a brief pause in proceedings between Iran and Israel, The Pentagon states that the U.S. currently has around 40,000 active-duty troops and Defense Department civilians stationed in the Middle East, with the largest U.S. military site in the region being Qatar’s Al Udeid air base, where some 10,000 troops are stationed

As Statista;s Anna Fleck shows in the chart  below, according to data published by the Congressional Research Service, as of July 10, 2024, personnel were based across Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman.

Qatar's Al Udeid air base is one of the eight so-called persistent U.S. military bases, which means that it has been continuously used by the U.S. Department of Defense for at least 15 years, with the U.S. military exercising at least some degree of operational control there.

These permanent bases tend to be the DOD’s largest and most well-known.

 Where U.S. Military Facilities Are in the Middle East | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Also marked on this infographic are 11 other selected U.S. military sites. According to the Congressional Research Service, these sites do not meet the persistent bases’ criteria but are places where the DOD maintains some sort of territorially linked presence or access.

This data is based on unclassified sources and does not include all facilities in the region, including temporary sites, which the U.S. military may use for exercises or contingency operations without planning on turning them into persistent sites.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 04:15

Germany's Fiscal Illusion: How Berlin Is Burying The Debt Brake

Germany's Fiscal Illusion: How Berlin Is Burying The Debt Brake

By Thomas Kolbe

Bye-Bye Maastricht: Germany's March into the Debt State

Political failure in a welfare state translates almost immediately into rising social expenditures. Their disproportionate increase shows one thing clearly: Germany is heading for troubled times.

"Budgetary policy is the sovereign right of parliament"—so goes the well-worn phrase when lawmakers gather for their annual budget debate. If that phrase ever held truth, then today the sovereign stands exposed: the king has no clothes.

The draft budget for 2025, finalized today by Germany’s federal cabinet and scheduled for adoption tomorrow, amounts to a fiscal policy capitulation. It foresees €81.8 billion in new net borrowing for the core budget—while an additional €60 billion is parked off the books in a so-called “special fund,” also debt-financed. The total federal budget climbs to approximately €503 billion, an increase of 6.1 percent over the previous year. For 2026, Finance Minister Christian Lindner is already planning a further expansion to €519.5 billion.

The real net borrowing, once this off-book spending is accounted for, reaches 3.2 percent of GDP—exceeding the long-abandoned Maastricht threshold of 3 percent. When even the eurozone’s former poster child no longer adheres to the rules, one thing becomes obvious: they were never worth the paper they were printed on. And the only natural brake on such excess—a free capital market—has long been neutralized by the European Central Bank’s perpetual interventions.

The path is now clear. Or rather: the floodgates are open. Debt-financed stimulus is once again the weapon of choice against recession.

As for Germany’s much-lauded “debt brake”—a constitutional clause requiring balanced budgets—it was always political poetry, never policy. A legal fiction on the verge of collapse, threatening constitutional confidence because no one in Berlin even pretends to honor it anymore.

Expensive Social Glue

If budget policy is about priorities, this one speaks volumes. It serves the dubious function of further expanding Germany’s welfare architecture. In 2025, social spending will rise by 6 percent to a staggering €210 billion. That growth does not merely signal the coalition’s political preferences—it exposes the structural failure of German governance.

Especially noteworthy is the increase in Bürgergeld (citizens’ benefit), which rises by €900 million to a total of €16.2 billion this year. Meanwhile, providing for migrants living in Germany without legal status costs states and municipalities over €10 billion annually. The welfare state has become an unrestrained transfer machine. It no longer acts as a safety net, but rather as an immigration magnet—exerting mounting pressure on German society from within.

War-Readiness Without Limits

Alongside the welfare sector and the ever-growing bureaucracy, Germany’s arms industry can also expect substantial fiscal generosity. The defense budget will rise by 3.5 percent next year—a first step toward NATO’s new 5 percent-of-GDP spending goal for defense and security. By 2029, Germany plans to allocate €152.8 billion to defense. Of that, 3.5 percent will go to traditional armaments, with the rest earmarked for cybersecurity, logistics, and military infrastructure. Naturally, these extra billions will be tucked away in the “special fund”—because Germany now keeps its books like the disreputable cousin of an honorable merchant. The truth is hidden; creditworthiness is merely simulated.

With the establishment of these special funds, Berlin has opened Pandora’s box. Over the next twelve years, it plans to bury €500 billion in spending for infrastructure, digitalization, and the failed green transition within them. This systematic obfuscation of costs—and their inflationary consequences—will increase public debt by at least twelve percent. It’s as if a child had been handed the key to the candy cabinet. The result is the end of any pretense of fiscal discipline.

Trickery, Smoke Screens, and Denial 

German budget policy has become a farce. What we’re witnessing are expertly staged accounting tricks, media distractions, and the desperate attempt to defer structural reform of the welfare state—whatever the cost.

The worn-out German economy will not breathe new life into an equally exhausted state through some unexpected economic miracle. If current trends continue—and all signs suggest they will—German public debt will surpass the 100 percent-of-GDP mark within the next decade.

At that point, there will be no way back from the fiscal trap. It’s only a matter of time before the portion of the bond market not artificially suppressed by the European Central Bank begins to price in Berlin’s fiscal camouflage. The unholy alliance of expansionary fiscal policy and monetary manipulation will keep interest rates under control through bond purchases, but redirect the monetary damage elsewhere.

In the end, this unsound budget policy translates into one thing: inflation. The erosion of purchasing power is knowingly accepted by the political class. It is, in fact, a feature—not a bug—of the redistribution mechanism

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 03:30

"Vicious Circle": Immigration Is Costing France 3.4% Of Its GDP

"Vicious Circle": Immigration Is Costing France 3.4% Of Its GDP

Immigration has not delivered the economic benefits long promised in France and may, in fact, be dragging down the country’s economy, according to a report by the Observatory of Immigration and Demography (OID), according to Le Figaro.

Rather than boosting growth, the think tank claims immigration is costing France the equivalent of 3.4 per cent of its GDP due to a significant mismatch between the taxes immigrants contribute and the services they consume.

Le Figaro reports that, according to OID, taxes collected from immigrants cover only 86 per cent of their fiscal cost, creating what it calls a “budget deficit.” This imbalance is largely due to low employment rates among immigrants: only 62.4 per cent of working-age immigrants in France are employed—one of the lowest rates in the European Union, just ahead of Belgium. The French native population, by comparison, has a 69.5 per cent employment rate.

The OID argues that if immigrants were employed at the same rate as native-born citizens, French GDP would be 3.4 per cent higher, and taxable income would rise by 1.5 percentage points.

“Immigration maintains a vicious circle which harms employment and the French economy: it aggravates the structural problems of employment in France, degrades public accounts and indirectly penalizes exposed sectors of the economy,” said Nicolas Pouvreau-Monti, director of the Observatory.

He acknowledged that the public debate often focuses on short-term labour needs in industries like hospitality, construction, and food service, but warned this is a narrow perspective. “The short-term vision prevents us from thinking about the best way to make these professions more attractive for people looking for work,” he said.

Pouvreau-Monti also criticized the system for importing mainly low-skilled workers rather than high-skilled migrants who could drive innovation. He warned that the economic drag created by this model forces the government to raise taxes on businesses, compounding the economic strain.

“In other words, encouraging immigration to avoid shortages in certain sectors in tension amounts to sacrificing the growth of our strategic sectors for the benefit of only a few corporate interests,” he said.

According to the report, a major driver of France’s immigration pattern is family reunification, or chain migration, which prioritizes familial ties over professional skills. As Pouvreau-Monti put it, “finding work is more difficult for an immigrant when professional integration is not at the root of the decision to emigrate to France.”

Worryingly, this economic inactivity appears to extend into the next generation. Drawing on OECD data, OID noted that 24 per cent of young people born in France to immigrant parents were not in employment, education, or training (NEET) during 2020–2021. This was the second-highest NEET rate in Europe and the broader Western world, just behind Belgium.

OID links this trend to rising ethnic self-segregation, arguing that failure to integrate economically is contributing to increased sectarianism in France and Belgium, in contrast to other European nations.

The report adds to growing skepticism across Europe over the idea that mass migration is an economic benefit. Even Britain’s Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer recently stated that the assumption that immigration automatically leads to economic growth has been “tested” and “doesn’t hold.” Starmer added a stark warning: unless migration policy is reevaluated, Britain risks becoming “an island of strangers.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/26/2025 - 02:45

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