Zero Hedge

Two US Soldiers & A Civilian Killed, Several More Wounded, In Central Syria Ambush

Two US Soldiers & A Civilian Killed, Several More Wounded, In Central Syria Ambush

Washington's Syria intervention is the mess that keeps on giving. And now more tragedy has struck after years of a Pentagon quagmire and endless occupation in the northeast of the country.

Two US Army soldiers and an American civilian who was serving as an interpreter were killed after shots were fired at US and allied Syrian forces during a security meeting near the ancient central Syrian town of Palmyra.

Image source: AFP

An additional three other American servicemembers were wounded in the attack, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a post on X.

The attack occurred as troops were conducting "key leader engagement." This marks the single biggest casualty event among US forces inside Syria in years - given at least six total US personnel were apparently shot.

A CENTCOM statement said it was the result of an an "ambush by a lone ISIS gunman in Syria," and that the "gunman was engaged and killed."

"Their mission was in support of on-going counter-ISIS/counter-terrorism operations in the region," Parnell had described further. He said that identifying information about their units will be withheld until 24 hours after the next of kin notification. "This attack is currently under active investigation."

Reports that gunman was actually part of Jolani/Sharaa regime forces:

Syrian state SANA indicate that two members of a Syrian security detail were also wounded - but these seem to have been fighters from the largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The shooting took place on the outskirts of Palmyra.

The city of ruins, which also includes a modern town which grew up around tourism, is a UNESCO world heritage site an has long been frequented by visitors. 

Reports of US and Syrian forces imposing blockade on parts of Palmyra, long feared a hotbed of 'ISIS cells':

In 2015 the Syrian Army was pushed out by advancing ISIS terrorists, and troops serving under President Assad were executed. Assad forces and the Russian military eventually liberated it:

ISIS began by executing Khaled Al-Ass’ad, the former Director of Antiquities at Palmyra, a devoted and outstanding archeologist who loved Palmyra like no one else. Following this horrific execution, ISIS began to destroy many of the most famous ruins—the Bel and Baalshamin temples, the tower tombs, the monumental arch and standing columns in addition to plundering the Palmyra Museum and destroying a large number of sculptures and artifacts left there.

In March 2016, the Assad forces (backed by the Russian military) recaptured Palmyra and immediately started building a Russian military base within the World Heritage Site. ISIS recaptured Palmyra in early December 2016 and destroyed the tetrapylon and damaged the theater. The Assad regime forces managed to take Palmyra back in March 2017.

Washington at the time didn't seem to mind that ISIS was taking over key Syrian sites and cities at the time, given admissions from top US officials that they could 'manage' ISIS by using terrorism to keep pressure on Assad (see below) in order to overthrow him.

* * *

An important trip down memory lane and recent history...

*  *  * CHRISTMAS CUTOFF IS MONDAY!

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 13:25

What Kind Of Caesar Will Trump Be?

What Kind Of Caesar Will Trump Be?

Authored by Vince Coyner via American Thinker,

It’s not often that life gives nations real second chances when it comes to the big things, but in America’s case, it did.  My only hope is that we don’t squander it...or to be more precise, I hope Donald Trump doesn’t squander it.

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.

The 2026 midterms are less than a year away.  That makes what Trump does in the next six to eight months monumentally important.  The bottom line is, does he want to be consequential or just well known?

Julius Caesar is easily one of the best known men in history, but was he really that consequential?  The truth is, no.  We know more about Caesar than any other Roman not because he changed the world, but because he was a genius of propaganda and wrote prodigiously — and well — about his exploits.  The reality is, Caesar was just another Roman general, albeit a great one, caught up in a century of internecine wars among men seeking to control the Republic.

Augustus, his adopted son, who is far less well known in history, was far more consequential, having transformed the Republic into an empire that would arguably last another 1,500 years.

Is Donald Trump going to be Caesar or Augustus?  Is he going to be a president who rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic and simply slows down her eventual collision with the iceberg?  Or is he going to steer her through the treacherous waters and bring her out safely on the other side?

When Trump won re-election last November, I was certain that after enduring eight years of what is easily the most vitriolic abuse any American politician had ever endured, he was going to return to Washington, and metaphorical heads were going to roll.  Indeed, he ran on the idea of destroying the Deep State.

Now, a year after the election, I’m not so sure.  Though I applaud most of his moves on immigration, particularly his recent move to cease all immigration from third-world countries, there are two elements that cause concern.

One is his support for the H1B visa program.  If there are jobs that can’t be filled by Americans, then bringing in foreign workers who have the necessary skills makes sense for keeping American industry productive.  But that’s not what’s happening.  Hundreds of thousands of foreign workers, primarily Indians, are being brought in to supplant American workers whom companies would generally have to pay more to keep or hire.  There is no shortage of American STEM workers; there are merely trillion-dollar tech, consulting, and other companies who simply want to bolster the bottom line by paying foreign workers lower wages.  Sadly, Trump defends the program virtually every chance he gets.  Add to that his allowing half a million students (or spies) from Communist China to remain at American universities, and one begins to wonder whose payrolls Trump’s advisers are on. 

Another area where Trump has not met expectations is taking on the leftist cabal that brought the nation to the brink of disaster over the last decade.  From Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton and the army of anti-American traitors who worked against Trump, his allies, and the American people, Trump should establish a task force with the specific purpose of investigating every single member of the government or NGO and every financier who had anything to do with Russiagate as well as the coup-cover-up of 2020 and the resulting J6 persecutions.

Americans know what happened.  We watched it in real time.  Molly Ball crowed about it in TIME magazine, we read about it in Mollie Hemingway’s Rigged, and later we followed as Emerald Robinson pulled string after string...but what we don’t have, and need, is the entire case of the treachery laid out in black and white, and then to see the guilty tried and punished.

As we all learned in the OJ trial, juries can’t always be trusted, but at a minimum, the information should be laid out for the American people to see so that they can vote accordingly.  The recent arrest of the D.C. pipe bomb suspect and Kash Patel’s announcement that it was based on information the FBI sat on for four years tells us that the information is there; it just takes an administration with sufficient courage to expose it. 

Hand in hand with allowing that treachery to go unpunished is the fact that Trump has not put his shoulder into ensuring the passage of the SAVE Act.  Indeed, New England, which is about 40% Republican, has 21 House seats, and 100% of them are Democrat.  That’s not good.  Democrats win by cheating.  Period.

The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act would require voter ID and proof of U.S. citizenship and outlaw most mail-in voting.  Strong-arming Congress, which the GOP theoretically controls, into passing SAVE would do more for saving the Republic than almost any other thing Trump could do.  If Trump wants to maintain GOP control over Congress and have any chance of fixing the country, he needs to fix the voting system now, because we know that the second the SAVE act is passed, there’s an army of treacherous federal judges who will seek to derail it.

This brings us to the last critical issue: the Judiciary.  Since 2015, federal judges across the country have acted as the rear guard for the Obama plan of “Fundamentally transforming the United States of America” into a leftist nirvana.  From nationwide injunctions to throwing out cases to seeking to exercise executive power, the federal judiciary has become untethered to the Constitution.  The traditional way such overreach is addressed is that cases make their way through the appellate process, and SCOTUS may or may not eventually rectify the problem.  But that system breaks down as a viable solution when fast approaching elections that decide the direction of the government are concerned.  Congress must act to address this judicial overreach. 

As such, Trump should work with Congress to utilize their Article III powers to fix this.  I’d suggest two possible avenues: 

1. Congress abolishes the entire Judiciary below SCOTUS and remakes it as a far more limited and constitutional Judiciary.

2. Congress sets up a separate parallel federal court channel that would deal exclusively with election- and executive power–related issues so they can be argued in a timely fashion and be resolved long before they become moot.

Decades from now, Donald Trump is going to be remembered.   The question is, will he be remembered as a celebrity president — who attracted a great deal of attention and simply slowed the collapse as the nation calcified into a failed dystopia driven by big government and big spending — or is he going to be remembered as an heroic, mythic figure who fought back the leftist tide and put America back on firm, limited-government, constitutional footing, giving her a real opportunity to survive another 250 years?

I guess we’ll see.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 12:50

Europol Pinpoints When Skynet-Like Human Resistance To AI Could Emerge

Europol Pinpoints When Skynet-Like Human Resistance To AI Could Emerge

If Goldman's estimates of a partial or full displacement of up to 300 million jobs across the Western world due to the proliferation of artificial intelligence and automation are even remotely correct, a new report suggests that by 2035, society could face widespread public resentment, protests, and even acts of sabotage directed at robotic systems.

A new report by Europol, the EU's central intelligence and coordination hub for serious crime and terrorism, identifies around 2035 as a potential inflection point at which a human resistance movement against AI could begin to take shape, in a scenario that echoes the resistance to Skynet in the Terminator film franchise.

Europol warned of "bot-bashing" incidents and acts of sabotage against robotic systems in the middle of the next decade, as the spread of AI and robotics could fuel a populist backlash against technologies that have hollowed out parts of the Western economy and left millions unemployed.

Here's a section of the report:

By 2035, service robots have become a fixture of daily life across Europe, gliding silently through shopping centres, delivering parcels to fifth-floor flats, and cleaning public transit platforms by night. While many citizens have grown used to their presence, nodding politely to automated crossing guards or receiving prescriptions from pharmacist bots, frustration simmers beneath the surface. In economically strained regions, displaced workers protest outside automated warehouses, chanting slogans at tireless machines behind reinforced glass. A spate of "bot-bashing" incidents in city centres, ranging from graffiti to targeted arson, has prompted debates about "robot rights" and the psychological toll of widespread automation. In this uneasy climate, even minor malfunctions, such as a hospital care robot administering the wrong medication, are magnified into national scandals, fuelling populist calls to "put people first."

Law enforcement now finds itself caught at the intersection of technological adaptation and social tension. Police officers investigate crimes by robots—such as drones used as tools in theft or automated vehicles causing pedestrian injuries—and against them, including sabotage, tampering, or hate-driven destruction. As AI and robotics replace routine policing tasks like patrolling or traffic management, some departments face internal pushback from officers who fear obsolescence or diminished purpose. At the same time, the rise in economic dislocation caused by automation has contributed to an uptick in cybercrime, vandalism, and organised theft, often targeted at robotic infrastructure. Agencies are under pressure to both modernise and humanise—balancing the efficiency of unmanned systems with public trust, and equipping officers not just with new tools, but with new roles in a society where “protect and serve" increasingly applies to both humans and machines.

Today, the growing adoption of robotics by various industries and sectors means that more and more members of society will be exposed to, and interact with, this technology. While an increased frequency of encountering different types of robots in everyday life may lead to greater familiarity and acceptance, there is a risk of societal alienation, frustration, and resistance towards robots. These reactions can be the result of robotic malfunctions leading to unintended harm (i.e., crashing autonomous taxis or service robots in hospitals), or simply disapproval of their very existence (i.e., nuisances caused by drone flights or surveillance concerns linked to police patrol robots).

Our view is that Europol's 2035 prediction of "bot-bashing" has already been pulled forward. One could argue that an early incident appeared on X in 2023, when groups in San Francisco attacked driverless cars. And why stop at bashing automated systems? Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has already warned about the risks of data center sabotage.

For the sake of humanity, let's hope Goldman's 2023 report forecasting 300 million layoffs across the Western world never materializes. Otherwise, human resistance movements against robots will emerge. To mitigate such a populist revolt, we suspect central banks and governments would respond by unleashing universal basic income. It is likely inevitable.

The 2030s do not sound fun.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 12:15

Justice Jackson's History Of Shilling For The Deep State

Justice Jackson's History Of Shilling For The Deep State

Via The Brownstone Institute,

President Joe Biden’s decision to limit his Supreme Court nominees to black women was widely criticized as a product of DEI-mania, but the ensuing racial controversy was a red herring, a political sleight of hand, designed to distract Americans from Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s true purpose on the bench: to protect, preserve, and defend the deep state from the constraints of the Constitution. 

The fallout from the nomination was familiar; CNN’s opinion pages called Republican Senators, including Tom Cotton (R-AR), Josh Hawley (R-MO), and Ted Cruz (R-TX), “racist and sexist” for opposing Jackson; Georgetown Law Professor Ilya Shapiro was suspended for stating that the most qualified candidate was an Indian man, not a black woman; Al Sharpton threw his support behind President Biden.

But Justice Jackson’s position was never intended to be a statement of racial representation or judicial excellence; it was the Biden administration’s anointment of a praetorian guard for the unelected and unaccountable bureaucracy that seeks to prevent President Trump from gaining control of the nation. 

On Monday, the Supreme Court considered whether the President of the United States has the power to remove members of the Executive Branch.

The Constitution’s Vesting Clause, which states that the “executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America,” offers an unequivocal answer.  

But Jackson, assuming her role as a corporatist advocate on a government salary, acted as the mouthpiece for those opposed to accountability for the bureaucracy that lives off the taxpayers’ wages.

She warned of “the danger of allowing…the President to actually control the transportation board and potentially the Federal Reserve and all these other independent agencies.” 

Jackson, never known for speaking concisely or deliberately (in oral arguments, she speaks 50 percent more than any of her fellow colleagues and more than Justices Amy Coney Barrett, John Roberts, and Clarence Thomas combined) waxed longingly for a nation with no presidential control over the executive branch:

My understanding was that independent agencies exist because Congress has decided that some issues, some matters, some areas should be handled in this way by nonpartisan experts, that Congress is saying that expertise matters with respect to aspects of the economy and transportation and the various independent agencies that we have. So having a President come in and fire all the scientists and the doctors and the economists and the Ph.D.s and replacing them with loyalists and people who don’t know anything is actually not in the best interest of the citizens of the United States. This is what I think Congress’s policy decision is when it says that these certain agencies we’re not going to make directly accountable to the President.

This is not a mere coincidence; when nominated, the Biden administration knew that she was devoted to bureaucratic supremacy. 

In the first Trump administration, Jackson, then a District Court Judge, overturned four executive orders (numbers 13837, 13836, 13839, and 13957) that sought to rein in the power of the nearly three million federal employees who effectively inhabit permanent jobs. Most notably, in 2020, she invalidated President Trump’s order “Creating Schedule F in the Excepted Service.”

In March 2024, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Murthy v. Missouri, which considered the Biden administration’s collusion with Big Tech to censor Americans during the Covid response. There, Justice Jackson stated that her “biggest concern” was that an injunction would result in “the First Amendment hamstringing the Government.”  

Earlier this year, Justice Barrett chastised Justice Jackson as “embracing an imperial Judiciary” after Justice Jackson voted to increase federal courts’ power to issue nationwide injunctions.  

Jackson’s defense of the unelected cabal that dominates American life is not a mere issue of legalese; it animates the chief question of the second Trump administration: does the commander-in-chief control the Executive Branch? The Constitution tells us that he should, but in practice, entrenched interests threaten that governmental structure.

Those who believe that this gives the president too much power might consider an alternate path to shredding the Constitution, e.g. abolishing all these rogue agencies to reduce and contain executive power itself. 

Jackson’s verbose monologues, often disguised as questions, reveal that she understands the importance of this struggle despite her cognitive limitations. She may not be able to define a woman, but she knows that her benefactors depend on her denying the President from obtaining “actual control” over the agencies that the Constitution designates to his realm. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 11:40

The Gulf Of America Is Back

The Gulf Of America Is Back

Authored by Erik Milito via RealClearEnergy,

After years of market swings, regulatory uncertainty, and deep staffing cuts, America’s energy workforce is overdue for a stabilizing signal. December 10th provides exactly that: the first federal Gulf of America lease sale in nearly two years, offering long-awaited certainty for the companies and workers that power America’s offshore energy engine.

In 2024, Gulf of America oil and gas activity supported approximately 428,000 jobs across all 50 states, contributed $35.9 billion in spending, and generated $7 billion in federal revenues. Few industries deliver that scale of widespread economic impact.

Mandated by President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, this sale is the first of 30 over the next 15 years, with additional sales offshore Alaska. After an unprecedented 24-month leasing gap, the door to America’s offshore future, anchored by Texan expertise, is reopening.

Regular leasing is not a bureaucratic detail; it’s the foundation of long-term offshore development. Offshore oil and gas projects are multi-billion-dollar endeavors with 20–30-year timelines, and many high-skill engineering, fabrication, marine, and logistics jobs supporting are found across the Gulf coast. More than 200 job types, from subsea engineers to welders to data scientists, pay on average 29% above the national average. When leasing stalls, workers feels it first.

*  *  * CHRISTMAS CUTOFF IS MONDAY!

Production coming online today is the result of lease sales, policy choices, and investment decisions made years ago. Wood Mackenzie projects that long-planned deepwater projects will add 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and another 250,000 in 2026, essential to replenish offshore production volumes, offset onshore declines, and strengthen long-term U.S. energy security. None of this happens overnight: consistent leasing is the lifeline for the offshore economy.

The 24-month pause forced operators, service companies, and supply-chain firms to delay projects, scale back planning, and freeze capital, contributing directly to staffing reductions across the region. Predictable leasing restores confidence, giving companies a horizon for investment and workers the stability they deserve.

The offshore ecosystem spans subsea engineering, advanced manufacturing, offshore construction, vessel operations, robotics, data analytics, and safety training, among other innovative energy fields. Regular lease sales mean steadier workloads, predictable capital cycles, and real stability for employers and workers alike.

The benefits ripple far beyond individual operating companies. Steady offshore activity supports local suppliers, fabrication yards, and service providers, sustaining thousands of additional jobs across the nation. When companies along the Gulf coast can count on long-term projects, they are better able to invest in technology, training, and infrastructure that strengthens the city’s energy cluster and keeps it globally competitive. This ripple effect ensures that the Gulf of America remains an anchor of America’s offshore energy industry, benefiting communities, families, and the local economy for decades.

Offshore development also delivers massive amounts of public revenue. In 2024, U.S. offshore activity generated $7 billion in direct federal revenue. Through updates to the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act (GOMESA), a growing share of that revenue flows back to Gulf states funding coastal restoration, hurricane protection, community infrastructure, and other critical investments.

The Gulf of America is one of the world’s most prolific and lowest-carbon intensity offshore basins, with Gulf barrels having 46% lower carbon intensity than the global average. Every barrel produced here displaces higher-emission imports while strengthening energy security for America and its allies.

With global threats rising and energy markets volatile, predictable investment opportunities are essential to our economic future, both locally and nationally. It signals to investors that the U.S. is committed to long-term energy development. It gives companies confidence. It gives workers stability. And it gives the Gulf of America, after years of uncertainty, a clear horizon it can finally plan around.

With the December 10th lease sale, and the 29 that follow, the Gulf of America is once again positioned to anchor America’s energy future, and our workforce has a reason to look forward with confidence.

Erik Milito is President of the National Ocean Industries Association. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 10:30

Seized Tanker Reveals Cuba's Secret Oil Lifeline As Trump Turns To Gunboat Diplomacy

Seized Tanker Reveals Cuba's Secret Oil Lifeline As Trump Turns To Gunboat Diplomacy

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has realized that it is all about following the money. If the U.S. military posture in the Caribbean is one of "gunboat diplomacy" aimed at ushering in regime change in Caracas, Venezuela's capital, against the country's autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, then one way to accelerate regime instability is to weaken Cuba materially.

During President Trump's first term, there was a brief moment in which the Maduro regime appeared close to being overthrown, but it was countered by support from Cuba. According to The New York Times reporters Michael Crowley and Edward Wong, that failure frustrated Trump, his advisers, and then Senator Rubio, who had backed regime change.

"Their theory of change involves cutting off all support to Cuba," said Juan S. Gonzalez, who was President Joe Biden's top White House aide for Western Hemisphere affairs. "Under this approach, once Venezuela goes, Cuba will follow."

In a separate NYT report, journalists Anatoly Kurmanaev, Nicholas Nehamas, and Farnaz Fassihi explained that the seized tanker Skipper, which was carrying crude contracted by Cubametales, Cuba's state-run oil trading firm, is a critical part of how Cuba benefits from its oil trade with Venezuela.

The reporters cited internal data from Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA, showing that Skipper's destination was listed as the Cuban port of Matanzas.

They continued:

Two days after its departure, Skipper offloaded a small fraction of its oil, an estimated 50,000 barrels, to another ship, called Neptune 6, which then headed north toward Cuba, according to the shipping data firm Kpler. After the transfer, Skipper headed east, toward Asia, with the vast majority of its oil on board, according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter.

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, have for decades sent oil to Cuba at highly subsidized prices, providing a crucial resource at low cost to the impoverished island.

In return, the Cuban government over the years has sent tens of thousands of medics, sports instructors, and, increasingly, security professionals on assignments to Venezuela. That exchange has assumed special importance as Mr. Maduro has leaned on Cuban bodyguards and counterintelligence officers to protect himself against the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean.

In recent years, however, only a fraction of Venezuelan oil set aside for Cuba has actually reached the island, according to PDVSA documents and tanker tracking data. Most of the oil allocated for Cuba has instead been resold to China, with the money providing badly needed hard currency for the Cuban government, according to multiple people close to the Venezuelan government.

And noted Panamanian businessman Ramón Carretero is at the center of the Venezuela-Cuba oil flow:

The main person managing the flow of oil between Cuba and Venezuela is a Panamanian businessman named Ramón Carretero, who in the past few years has become one of the largest traders of Venezuelan oil, according to PDVSA data and people close to Venezuela's government.

The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Mr. Carretero on Thursday for "facilitating shipments of petroleum products on behalf of the Venezuelan government." Mr. Carretero, through a legal representative, declined to comment on the government's decision. He did not respond to detailed questions for this article.

Mr. Carretero's role as an economic intermediary between Cuba and Venezuela was first reported by Armando.info, a Venezuelan investigative news outlet.

Skipper was also part of Iran's dark tanker fleet:

Before shipping Venezuelan oil, Skipper spent four years as part of Iran's covert fleet, transporting Iranian oil to Syria and China, according to data from Kpler, the shipping data firm, and a senior Iranian oil ministry official, who discussed sensitive issues on condition of anonymity.

What's likely happening is that the Trump administration is in the early innings of disrupting large volumes of crude that flow from Venezuela to Cuba to China. That strategy could trigger falling dominoes across the region, pushing Cuba's economy deeper into collapse while also meaningfully weakening Venezuela and tipping the balance of power away from Maduro.

So far, Beijing has yet to lash out over the Skipper seizure and the resulting disruptions to crude flows to Asia. One has to wonder whether Bessent worked out a secret deal with Beijing; otherwise, this type of maneuvering by the Trump administration risks triggering turmoil that could derail any upcoming Trump-Xi talks.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 09:55

Trump Team Denies Leaked 'Secret Plan' To Break EU Nations Away From Brussels' Grip

Trump Team Denies Leaked 'Secret Plan' To Break EU Nations Away From Brussels' Grip

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy was published last week, setting out the U.S.’s broad foreign policy direction for the remainder of his term. It focused on ending what it calls a “perpetually expanding NATO,” establishing “conditions of stability within Europe,” and encouraging European allies to “stand on [their] own feet” in security matters.

The document also warned that Europe faces “civilizational erasure,” citing migration, censorship of speech, declining birthrates, and what it described as a loss of national identity and self-confidence.

Days after the official release, however, the Defense One website reported that a longer, unreleased version of the NSS had circulated in Washington. According to the site, the unpublished version contained far more explicit political goals for reshaping Europe’s future and reducing the influence of the European Union. Defense One wrote that the extended draft urged the United States to “Make Europe Great Again,” proposing that Washington realign its attention toward a select group of governments ideologically closer to the Trump administration.

The unpublished version, Defense One reported, stated that Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland were countries the United States should “work more with… with the goal of pulling them away from the [European Union].” It also said the United States should support “parties, movements, and intellectual and cultural figures who seek sovereignty and preservation/restoration of traditional European ways of life… while remaining pro-American.”

None of this language appears in the officially released NSS, which focuses instead on broader themes of strategic stability with Russia, the need for Europe to regain its self-confidence, and continued American support for democracy and free expression. The official document argues that Europe’s loss of confidence is particularly visible in its approach to Russia. It states, “Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states.” It adds that stabilizing the continent will require “an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine” to prevent escalation, restore stability, and support Ukraine’s survival as a viable state.

The text also warns that the war has increased Europe’s exposure to external dependencies, particularly Germany’s, and criticizes what it describes as unrealistic expectations held by some European officials. It concludes that despite Europe’s internal crises, the continent remains strategically and culturally vital to the United States. America, it says, “encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit,” asserting that the growing influence of patriotic European parties “gives cause for great optimism.”

After the Defense One report appeared, the White House moved quickly to deny the existence of any longer or alternative NSS. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, “No alternative, private, or classified version exists. President Trump is transparent and put his signature on one NSS that clearly instructs the U.S. government to execute on his defined principles and priorities.” She added that “any other so-called ‘versions’ are leaked by people distant from the President who, like this ‘reporter,’ have no idea what they are talking about.” Her reference to leaks suggests that other versions of the report may have been discussed, albeit not endorsed or included in the final publication.

Speaking to the American Conservative website about the strategy report, Krzysztof Bosak, a Polish MP, leader of the right-wing Confederation, and deputy speaker of the Sejm — Poland’s lower parliamentary chamber — said, “I can’t say that I disagree with anything there. It’s a continuation of Vice President J.D. Vance’s Munich [Security Conference] speech, which I agreed with completely.

“Maybe Europe needs a shock from our good old friend America to start a true debate, because there was no debate in the European mainstream. In America, you have both sides of the political spectrum. In Western Europe, there’s only one side. If you have politically incorrect views, you can find yourself in prison, because you said too much, for example, in England or sometimes in Germany,” he added.

Italian newspaper La Repubblica also reported on the Defense One findings, highlighting the claim that the United States planned to use Italy, Austria, Hungary, and Poland “as tools to dismantle the European Union” by drawing them into a broader, ideologically aligned group. It noted Defense One’s summary that the unpublished draft viewed Europe’s immigration policies as driving an “erasure of its civilization,” and that Washington should engage with European actors seeking “sovereignty” and the restoration of traditional ways of life.

La Repubblica separately noted that Matt Schlapp, chairman of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), recently expressed interest in holding a major CPAC event in Italy to promote a sovereignist agenda. While government sources suggested a lack of enthusiasm, Schlapp told the newspaper, “We will get it done.”

CPAC has grown in stature among European conservatives in recent years, most notably in Hungary, where its annual event in Budapest now attracts major players, both from Europe and across the Atlantic.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 09:20

Ukraine War Comes To... The Caspian Sea

Ukraine War Comes To... The Caspian Sea

Ukraine has extended the war to a far flung body of water and unexpected place. Ukraine's military has newly revealed that its special forces conducted successful operations against Russian oil, military, logistics assets in the Caspian Sea.

The Caspian Sea is some 700 miles from the front lines in Ukraine, and is the world's largest inland body of water, which is bordered by Russia and Kazakhstan to the north and Iran to the South, among other small countries.

Ukraine revealed Thursday its long-range drones targeted and hit major offshore oil platform in the Caspian Sea. The offshore oil field run by Lukoil had to effectively halt production, according to Oil Price. It is said to be the single biggest oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said its forces targeted the Vladimir Filanovsky field which lies in the northern sector of the sea. Four drones reportedly struck the offshore platform, causing a stoppage over over 20 wells.

"This is Ukraine’s first strike on Russian infrastructure related to oil production in the Caspian Sea," a Ukrainian official told CNN. The person described "another reminder to Russia that all its enterprises working for the war are legitimate targets."

In parallel, Ukraine's special forces are touting that an additional operation has taken place: it says it struck two Russian military-linked ships in the Caspian Sea near Kalmykia - a republic in southern Russia, north of the North Caucasus.

The vessels have since been identified as the Composer Rakhmaninoff and the Askar-Sarydzha, which are both sanctioned by the Washington for transporting military cargoes between Iran and Russia.

Apparently in this case, Ukraine had help from a local proxy militia group, per Ukrainian media:

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) said they carried out a joint operation with the insurgent group Chornaya Iskra ("Black Spark”), targeting two Russian vessels close to Russia's Kalmykia coast. The ships were identified as the Kompozitor Rakhmaninov and Askar Sarydzha. Both had been sanctioned by the US...

International monitors have indicated that between August and the end of November of this year, Ukraine has struck nearly 80 Russian energy facilities in total.

Kiev is desperately trying to play the only card it has - choking off energy revenue and funding for Russia's war machine. But so far the Kremlin has weathered the storm, but still may feel the squeeze down the line - especially amid slowed repair efforts given the sheer volume of incidents.

Russia has taken desperate measures, even draping refineries and oil depots with giant netting - or else ramping up ground anti-drone forces. But throughout the war, small long-range drones have proven devastating and able to oftentimes penetrate even the most sophisticated defensive measures.

Source: CNN

"What used to be occasional strikes meant to cause damage has become a sustained effort to keep refineries from ever fully stabilizing," said Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 08:45

France's Fiscal Death Spiral: A Nation Incapable Of Reform

France's Fiscal Death Spiral: A Nation Incapable Of Reform

Submitted By Thomas Kolbe

What is now unfolding in France may soon drag the entire Eurozone into deep turmoil. The country is staggering through a fiscal crisis while locked in a political stalemate that seems impossible to break. In the bond market, the clock is ticking loudly as France’s public debt spirals out of control.

This week, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu celebrated a textbook Pyrrhic victory. On Tuesday, the National Assembly narrowly approved his draft for next year’s social budget. But the win came at a steep price: sweeping concessions that will only worsen an already explosive fiscal situation.

Strange coalitions

With 247 votes in favor, 234 against, and 93 abstentions, the Assembly passed a plan projecting a €20 billion deficit in the social budget – significantly worse than the originally planned €17 billion. Marine Le Pen’s party and the far-left bloc around Jean-Luc Mélenchon both rejected the proposal.

It is surreal: political gridlock has driven France into a place where the far-left and the right vote together – and collectively push the government toward collapse. For President Emmanuel Macron, this could soon mean assembling yet another fragile government, as there is no indication France can lift itself out of its catastrophic stalemate.

The bill now moves to the Senate, where the governing coalition holds a majority. It will likely pass without major obstruction. On December 23rd, the Senate begins negotiations for the 2026 budget. It may provide drama, but no one seriously expects the political blockade to change.

Pension reform on ice – permanent reform paralysis

Lecornu was forced to freeze the planned pension reform, which would have raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. Instead, France will raise it only to 62 years and nine months. The country maintains the largest social budget in the EU while keeping one of the lowest retirement ages. Once again, France sidesteps its growing pension crisis, following Germany down the same dangerous path of a collapsing pay-as-you-go system. Paris also refuses to address the fiscal consequences of illegal migration – a social time bomb whose fuse is already burning.

This decision exposes the deep political denial embedded in France’s leadership: they continue living at the expense of future generations, consuming economic substance that no longer exists. France has become fundamentally incapable of reform and is drifting straight into a severe fiscal crisis.

This year’s budget deficit is roughly 5.6% of GDP. The government’s wildly optimistic projection for next year is 5%. With huge gaps in the social accounts, no one can explain how this number could be reached. It is pure fantasy. A far more realistic expectation is a deficit between 6% and 7%.

France’s political crisis mirrors its economic paralysis. Economic productivity has been shrinking for years. With a state share of 57% of GDP, the government blocks the free allocation of capital and absorbs the very resources required to revive the economy. France has never been comfortable with market economics and now, like a Siamese twin of Berlin’s disastrous policies, pushes central planning deeper into the economy.

Economic ossification

With 68,000 corporate insolvencies over the past twelve months and an industrial sector stuck in contraction, the country is heading directly into a severe social crisis – already reflected in an inescapable fiscal trap.

France is experiencing a bankruptcy wave of biblical proportions, likely costing 400,000 jobs this year. The economy is on its knees, and the French retreat into the illusion that endless debt can somehow restore their welfare system.

We have seen what this means for Eurozone stability: fifteen years ago, tiny Greece lost access to markets and triggered a debt crisis that spread like wildfire across Europe.

Back then, the credibility of Eurozone monetary policy was sacrificed to keep the highly interconnected credit markets liquid through massive ECB intervention and years of bailouts.

If the Eurozone’s second-largest economy experiences an “air pocket” on its bond market – a sudden collapse in demand for its swelling debt issuance – the traditional toolkit of the European Central Bank will not be enough to contain the fallout.

A secular shift in global bonds

In an acute crisis, the ECB would be ready to intervene. Its main tool would be sovereign bond purchases under the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme). Additional liquidity could be injected through targeted long-term refinancing operations or via support for banks holding large volumes of French sovereign debt.

The Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program could also be activated, allowing direct purchases of crisis-country bonds – though only under strict fiscal-conditionality rules. But in the next crisis, those conditions will almost certainly be ignored to prevent the Eurozone from disintegrating. The ECB already provided the playbook when Mario Draghi uttered his famous “whatever it takes.”

Yet the ECB’s actual influence has limits: the long end of the bond market – maturities beyond ten years – is the deepest and most liquid segment. No single central bank can truly control it.

For months, long-term yields have been rising – first in Japan, now increasingly across parts of the Eurozone. The market is signaling a fundamental loss of confidence in the debt sustainability of fiscally undisciplined states.

A secular turning point in global bond markets has already occurred. At its climax, it will mark the final full stop on every pending fiscal crisis. Think Argentina. The age of the chainsaw is approaching.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 08:10

Dust Off The Shovels: Quick Burst Of Snow Targets Mid-Atlantic, I-95 Corridor

Dust Off The Shovels: Quick Burst Of Snow Targets Mid-Atlantic, I-95 Corridor

Update (Saturday morning): 

Dust off your snow shovels and fill up those snowblowers with gasoline, or if you've splurged this year on a fancy robot snowblower, plug it in and charge the batteries today.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are preparing for the season's first significant snowfall event, with accumulating snow expected in metro areas near I-95. It is a fast-moving clipper storm expected to arrive overnight.

"An area of low pressure will redevelop off the coast Saturday night into Sunday morning with snow developing by 12 a.m. The snow will mix with rain at times in Zones 4 and 5. All snow is expected to continue through 8 a.m. Sunday and then taper off from northwest to southeast through 1 p.m. Sunday," a meteorologist at NY NJ PA Weather wrote in a report.

NY NJ PA Weather noted that the heaviest snowfall favors interior areas, while coastal zones may see periods of rain before transitioning to snow. Accumulating snow is possible near the I-95 corridor, including areas around Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City.

Impacts by zone (courtesy of NY NJ PA Weather):

  • Zone 1: Snow showers, trace to 1 inch

  • Zone 2: Light snow, 1 to 3 inches

  • Zone 3: Moderate snow, 3 to 6 inches

  • Zone 4: Rain changing to snow, 1 to 3 inches

  • Zone 5: Rain changing to snow, trace to 1 inch

What other meteorologists and weather observers are saying:

Related:

* * * 

Ahead of next week's return to global warming, thank you, Al Gore, for listening to our prayers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast after weeks of below-average temperatures that felt like the Arctic. A weekend snowstorm is set to blanket the region with accumulating snow.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center published a new snowfall forecast for a weekend winter storm that stretches from the northern High Plains of Montana through the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians, and the Northeast, including major cities from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

Private weather forecaster Weather Madness noted on X, "I expect an Arctic low to develop along the Arctic front, which could produce extra snow along the I-95 corridor from NYC to DCA."

Weather Madness expects parts of the Mid-Atlantic to receive 4 to 8 inches.

Meteorologist Steven DiMartino at NY NJ PA Weather published a short video earlier that details the incoming snow threat for the Mid-Atlantic area.

More from meteorologist Rayn Maue... 

On Thursday, we noted in "After Polar Vortex US Freeze, Global Warming Returns Before Christmas" that a warm-up for the eastern half of the US is expected to begin on Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.

Related:

Meteorologist Ben Noll said, "A whopping 235 million people across the United States have experienced well below-average temperatures so far this December."

We'll take the warmth. Thanks, Al Gore. However, January is right around the corner.

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/13/2025 - 07:48

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