Zero Hedge

OpenAI Reportedly Targets $1 Trillion Valuation As IPO Window Opens In 2027

OpenAI Reportedly Targets $1 Trillion Valuation As IPO Window Opens In 2027

Earlier this week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed the topic of taking the chatbot maker public during a livestream. He said that while there are no concrete plans or set timeline, "it's fair to say an IPO is the most likely path for us." 

After Altman's comments, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the matter, that OpenAI is indeed preparing for an IPO, with a securities filing expected in late 2026 and a market debut in 2027 at a potential valuation of $1 trillion. 

Here's more from the report:

OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising $60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.

While an OpenAI spokesperson maintains that "an IPO is not our focus," this week's restructuring news, which reduced the company's dependence on Microsoft and shifted governance under the OpenAI Foundation, only suggests preparation for public markets, as it paves the way for OpenAI to use public stock for large-scale acquisitions and capital-intensive infrastructure projects to support Altman's plan to invest trillions in AI development.

OpenAI has an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $20 billion, though losses are mounting. There was a report at the start of the week that said the Microsoft CFO internally warned about Altman's data center spending, which could unleash data center overcapacity.

Related: 

OpenAI was most recently valued at $500 billion, with major investors including Microsoft (27% stake), SoftBank, Thrive Capital, and Abu Dhabi's MGX.

However, the potential IPO window for OpenAI comes at a time when Goldman analysts forecast data center peak occupancy will begin to weaken (read here), an indication that more supply will come online amid the massive wave of data center buildouts expected next year (read here).

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:25

Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment

Obamacare Premiums Set To Soar Ahead Of Open Enrollment

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Premiums for people buying health insurance through Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces are soaring ahead of the start of the open enrollment period, new data show.

Premiums for people who are buying insurance for 2026 in state-run marketplaces are rising 17 percent, the health nonprofit KFF said on Oct. 28. Premiums for enrollees using Healthcare.gov, the federally-run marketplace, are spiking on average 30 percent.

The enrollment period for the ACA—former President Barack Obama’s health care law, commonly known as Obamacare—will open on Nov. 1 for most marketplaces.

Factors behind the increasing premiums include higher hospital costs and more people using weight loss drugs called GLP-1s, KFF said.

The increases do not take into account the impact that the expiration of enhanced subsidies would have, KFF said. Congress approved enhanced subsidies for Obamacare in 2021, and later extended them through the end of 2025.

Democrats want a continuation of the subsidies included in legislation to end the government shutdown, but Republicans have said they will not negotiate on the matter until Congress reopens the government.

Most Americans are insured through their employers, but 24 million obtained health insurance through a marketplace during the 2025 enrollment period, which ended in January. Seventeen million obtained insurance through Healthcare.gov.

The average monthly premium in 2025 was $619 before subsidies, or tax credits, and $113 a month after the credits.

More than 90 percent of people who bought insurance received one of the subsidies, which have been available since marketplaces opened in 2014 to households with annual incomes between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That ceiling was removed in 2021.

The new KFF analysis was based in part on data released on Tuesday by the Department of Health and Human Services, which started letting people who utilize Healthcare.gov go window shopping for insurance.

The average premium for 2026 after subsidies is projected to be $50 per month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, a division of the department, said in a fact sheet. Similar to 2025, the tax credits are projected to cover 91 percent of premiums for the cheapest plans.

The fact sheet did not mention price increases or the looming expiration of enhanced subsidies. The division did not respond to a request for comment.

States that run their own marketplaces previously released data showing insurance prices are increasing and warning that they will rise further if Congress does not extend the enhanced credits.

Most Colorado residents who buy insurance will see an average premium increase of 101 percent, the Colorado Division of Insurance said. It estimated that about 75,000 residents will no longer buy insurance due to the jump.

Washington state officials estimated that net premiums would increase 65 percent for recipients of the enhanced subsidies if they end up expiring.

Justin Zimmerman, commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, said in a statement that without the subsidies, people “will be confronted by startlingly higher prices for coverage.”

If the credits do expire, monthly premiums will soar by 114 percent on average, according to KFF.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 11:05

North Korea Flexes With Missile Test While Trump Tours Asia

North Korea Flexes With Missile Test While Trump Tours Asia

North Korea continues flexing its military might this week, but this time notably at a moment President Donald Trump is making stops in several Asian nations, including a visit to South Korea, where he's set to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.

On Tuesday, North Korea declared a successful test of a sea-to-surface cruise missile. It marked the second such missile test by Pyongyang in two weeks. Some sources have dubbed it as a 'strategic' test, indicating the missile was nuclear-capable.

"Important successes are being made in putting our nuclear forces on a practical basis… for steadily expanding the sphere of application of the war deterrents," Pak Jong Chon, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, said of the test.

"We should steadily update our combat capability. In particular, it is our responsible mission and duty to ceaselessly toughen the nuclear combat posture," he added.

King Jong-Un's military had fired off short-range missiles on Oct. 22 - which importantly was the first significant arms test in five months.

Earlier this week President Trump indicated he'd be willing to meet with Kim if Pyongyang reached out and was willing, but this offer has been met with silence.

Instead Kim has been increasingly deepening his relations with Russia. DPRK troops have even died fighting on behalf of Russia in the Ukraine war.

On Tuesday, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow - with a subsequent North Korean government statement describing the talks occurred at a "time when the strategic and alliance character of the relations between the two countries has been further consolidated and their might and vitality have been fully demonstrated under the outstanding and seasoned guidance of the heads of state of the two countries."

"The Russian side expressed full support for the DPRK side’s efforts and measures to firmly defend the state’s present position, security interests and sovereign rights," the foreign ministry added.

"And the DPRK side expressed invariable sympathy and support for all the measures taken by the Russian side to remove the root cause of the Ukrainian dispute and attain the strategic goal of special military operations," the statement continued, reaffirming support for Putin's 'Special Military Operation'.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 10:45

Google Executive Admits Company Made 'Mistakes' While Handling Complaints Of Election Fraud

Google Executive Admits Company Made 'Mistakes' While Handling Complaints Of Election Fraud

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Google executive said the company made “mistakes” while handling complaints of election fraud during a U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation hearing held Oct. 29.

Google's Government Affairs and Public Policy Centers of Excellence head Markham Erickson was questioned on Capitol Hill on Oct. 29, 2025. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who serves as the committee chairman, showed screenshots of a YouTube video that allegedly highlighted how former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Donald Trump both voiced concerns about election fraud and then asked Markham Erickson, who leads Google’s Government Affairs and Public Policy Centers of Excellence, why the video was taken down.

“YouTube deleted it, blocked it and gave the creator a strike, a step toward deleting his entire channel,” Cruz said. ”Why would you remove a journalist’s record of the claims of election fraud from both democrats and republicans?”

The Epoch Times has been unable to confirm specifically which YouTube video, owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, Inc., was being discussed during the hearing and has reached out to Cruz’s press office for a copy of the screenshots that were mentioned.

Erickson responded: “We have election policies and we’ve had election policies for a long time to ensure that the most important thing that citizens can do, which is to vote, they can find relevant and useful information on our platforms. Where to vote, for example. What time the ...”

Cruz interrupted Erickson and reiterated that his question was regarding a blocked YouTube video that discussed claims of election fraud made by presidential candidates from both parties, not voting.

“Then YouTube reversed that decision and unblocked it and you can see on the right [side of the posterboard], instead you decided not to block it, but simply to demonetize it,” Cruz said. “It is Google’s testimony that you regret nothing. Is that right?”

Erickson said that after the states had certified the 2020 election, YouTube adopted a policy to take down content that claimed there was “widespread fraud, or errors or glitches.”

“When the chance of real-world harm had dissipated, we removed that policy,” Erickson said.

Erickson did not comment on how the YouTube video allegedly shared Clinton’s criticisms regarding the 2016 election.

The 2016 Democratic nominee previously alleged the election had voter suppression, voter purging, and hacking. She even called Trump an “illegitimate president” during an interview with CBS News in September 2019.

When Cruz asked Erickson whether Google wanted to apologize or express regret for how it handled complaints of election fraud.

“We make mistakes,” Erickson responded.

“Name one,” Cruz said.

“We make those mistakes, Senator,” Erickson replied, without giving details.

“Name one,” Cruz said again. “Like you’re saying, was this a mistake? Yes or no?”

The Google executive reiterated that decisions were made “independently.”

“At the time, Senator, our trust and integrity teams, when looking at content on YouTube that claimed there was widespread fraud after the states had certified the validity of the election, we believed it was appropriate to take action against that content,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:45

ECB Keeps Rate Unchanged As Expected

ECB Keeps Rate Unchanged As Expected

As widely expected (and previewed), the ECB held rates unchanged (they key deposit rate remained at 2%, the refinancing rate was unch at 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility stayed at 2.4%) and also kept its guidance, unchanged as well. In what was a carbon copy of its previous statement, the ECB said it was not pre-committing to a particular policy path; said  inflation remained close to its target; and said future decision would be based on risks to inflation outlook.

Here are the highlights from the statement on the Economy...

  • Economy has continued to grow despite challenging global environment.
  • Robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and ECBs past interest rate cuts remain important source of resilience.
  • Outlook still uncertain due to global trade and geopolitics.

And on Policy

  • ECB not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
  • Will follow data dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy stance

The statement was rather optimistic on growth, although it highlights persistent uncertainty:

The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment. The robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience. However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”

Ahead of the ECB announcement, the latest data showed that Q3 GDP for the euroarea had come in at 0.2%, just fractionally above expectations. 

While the meeting was down the center, some like Oliver Rakau at Oxford Economics sense the doves starting to make a push ahead of the December meeting.

And here’s the reaction from Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank:

“Where’s the smoking gun for a rate cut? Despite the US tariffs, despite all the various sources of uncertainty, the European economy continues to eke out some growth. Economic ‘resilience’ is keeping the ECB doves in check, and the policy pause on the rails.”

In kneejerk reaction, the EURUSD - which had been sliding all day - staged a modest rebound from session lows.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:36

Carvana Shares Plunge Nearly 10% Despite Strong Headline Earnings

Carvana Shares Plunge Nearly 10% Despite Strong Headline Earnings

Carvana shares are down almost 10% this morning even as the online used-car retailer delivered another quarter of impressive looking headline results, highlighting growing skepticism that its financial rebound may be outpacing the realities of a shaky auto market.

Revenue jumped to $5.65 billion from $3.66 billion a year earlier, powered by a 44% increase in retail units sold to 155,941, according to Bloomberg. Net income rose to $263 million, or $1.03 per share, compared with $148 million, or 64 cents, a year ago. Adjusted earnings hit $1.50 per share, well ahead of expectations, while adjusted EBITDA climbed to $637 million. The company projected fourth-quarter retail unit sales above 150,000 vehicles.

CEO Ernie Garcia celebrated the scale of the recovery, telling shareholders: “Not only is this growth happening at the same time we are producing margins higher than have ever been reported by any other automotive retailer, but it is also happening at a very significant scale.”

It's a claim the market now seems to be skeptical of.

Beneath that demand, the auto sector is showing cracks. A major parts supplier (First Brands) and a subprime auto lender (Tricolor) recently failed, while delinquencies on auto loans — particularly among younger buyers — are rising fast. Auto loan delinquencies in 2025 have surged to historic levels, driven by higher vehicle prices, interest rates, and overall affordability issues for consumers. 

Analysts warn that lower-income consumers are under growing strain. “There has been nothing but bad news recently on the auto sector when it comes to the low-end consumer,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told Bloomberg

Carvana’s soaring valuation has also drawn scrutiny. The stock has jumped 78% this year and trades at roughly 53 times earnings, a multiple more in line with Silicon Valley high-flyers than with traditional auto dealers. That leaves little room for disappointment. “Any stumble in guidance, and momentum traders could hit reverse just as fast as they hit the gas,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive of Roundhill Financial.

On top of that, short sellers have accused the company in recent years of aggressive accounting, cutting corners on title transfers, and relying on financing practices that could backfire in a downturn. While the company has denied wrongdoing and tightened procedures, critics argue the rapid expansion masked deeper structural risks.

Other controversy has followed Carvana since its pandemic-era surge. After becoming a meme-stock favorite, shares crashed 98% in 2022 when losses mounted and debt worries ballooned. The current rebound has been fueled by cost-cutting, slower inventory growth, and a massive debt restructuring — moves that bought time but did not erase long-term questions about sustainability.

Meanwhile, the company's CEO and his father have sold billions of dollars in Carvana stock. 

The company’s pitch is that online scale and logistics efficiency can eventually outclass brick-and-mortar rivals such as CarMax and Lithia Motors. Yet critics argue the business remains capital-intensive — requiring costly facilities, fleets, and reconditioning centers — despite its tech-driven image. As Karobaar Capital’s Haris Khurshid put it: “It’s basically a capital intensive retailer wearing a tech premium.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:20

Senate GOP And Democrats Working On Shutdown 'Off-Ramp' For Next Week

Senate GOP And Democrats Working On Shutdown 'Off-Ramp' For Next Week

With the government shutdown firmly in its fourth week and SNAP beneficiaries threatening cannibalism (see below), Senate Republicans and Democrats are working behind the scenes on a proposal to reopen the government next week - with centrist Democrats arguing behind the scenes that their party has successfully highlighted soaring healthcare costs. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-SD)

Democrats say the higher costs are now set in stone due to Republicans' refusal to negotiate a deal to extend Biden-era subsidies that are set to expire - in yet another example of anything that's supposed to be 'temporary' becoming a new goalpost (*cough gerrymandering cough*). 

"My assessment is that we’ve won anything that we can possibly win and the costs of continuing the shutdown are going to be felt by people who are going to food banks and federal employees," one Democratic senator told The Hill, who argued that any political benefit to extending the shutdown is about to be outweighed by the chaos that's about to be unleashed if SNAP benefits end for 42 million Americans.

Some Democratic senators are privately speculating that if their party does well in the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia scheduled for Tuesday, they can declare a political victory and begin to finalize the endgame for reopening government.

Virginia, which will be a Senate battleground in 2026, is home to approximately 140,000 federal employees.

And of course, the largest federal employee union, the American Federation of Government Employees - which represents 820,000 federal and DC government workers - sided with the Republican plan to pass a clean (pork-free) resolution to kick the can and reopen the government - with union president Everett Kelley saying in a Monday statement that "both parties have made their point," and that it's time to "end this shutdown today." 

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-SD) told reporters that moderate Democrats are looking for an "off-ramp" for the shutdown, and he's willing to talk about extending the ACA subsidies after the government has reopened - and has even offered them a vote on their own proposal to extend the tax credits beyond December. 

That said, he won't negotiate specific ACA concessions with Democrats while the government remains closed.

"It’s just a question of whether or not they are at some point willing to take ‘yes’ for an answer," Thune said of moderate Democrats - however he's only going to offer them existing Republican proposals - such as getting the appropriations back on track, voting on the expiring subsidies, and committing to further the discussion on healthcare once the federal government is back up and running.

"The stakes are getting higher, which we knew they would. As the shutdown drags on, it becomes more painful for more people," said Thune. 

"What I’ve told them all along is as soon as they’re ready to open up the government that we will ensure that they have a process whereby they can have their chance to get their legislation voted on, their policies voted on," he said of his discussions with Senate Democratic colleagues. "They’ve become more interested and I hope that continues."

"They’re looking for an off-ramp," he continued, noting that the expiration of SNAP benefits is creating a sense of urgency. 

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) - pictured below getting badgered by Dianne Feinstein a few years ago...

...said that bipartisan talks to end the shutdown have picked up steam given the approaching SNAP-mageddon.

"There is a good group of folks who realize we are well past time to have this behind us. This is not good. This is not good from a governance perspective. This doesn’t reflect well on anybody and it is hurting real people [in] real time so let’s figure out a way to end it," she said, noting that the disagreements that need to be solved have been discussed at length. 

"There have been enough of these pieces that have been talked through that if somebody can just diagram out how it all comes together and present, yes, I do think it’s possible" to end the shutdown next week, she told reporters.

"There’s no great magic in how we get out of this. It’s the same stuff we’ve been talking about for months,” she continued. 

And if they don't fix this, they're gonna be eating more than the dogs and cats...

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 09:00

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