Earnings and Cooler Than Expected Inflation Lift Stocks to Record Highs
Rian Howlett , Laura Bratton and Ines Ferré of Yahoo Finance report Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq surge to records as tame inflation cements Fed rate cut bets:US stocks surged to record highs on Friday as investors digested a crucial inflation report that helped cement expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, or over 450 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2%.
The September inflation data released on Friday morning came in cooler than expected. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 3% on an annual basis, the highest level since May but softer than forecasts for a 3.1% gain. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.3%, a slight cooling from August's reading and also below expectations.
The report was delayed by more than a week due to the ongoing government shutdown, and was the first major economic release since the closure began, giving investors a long-awaited pulse check on the economy.
The CPI data did little to shake the near-unanimous investor confidence in a coming rate cut from the Fed next week — and more beyond that. Around 99% of bets are on a quarter-point cut next week, while some 96% of traders expect another slash in December.
Meanwhile, President Trump injected fresh uncertainty into trade negotiations with key US partners, announcing Friday he would cancel trade talks with Canada. Trump cited a Canadian advertisement against his signature tariffs plan which features the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.
In corporates, Intel (INTC) shares pared significant gains after the chip giant reported third-quarter revenue that topped Wall Street estimates.
"We believe we're well-positioned to play a more significant role in AI," Intel's head of investor relations John Pitzer said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Ford extends gains 13% to hit session highFord (F) rallied as high as 13% on Friday afternoon after the carmaker posted better-than-expected earnings.
Gold slips to cap volatile weekGold (GC=F) retreated less than 1% on Friday to cap a volatile week.
Futures for the precious metal fluctuated between positive and negative territory, hovering near $4,122 per troy ounce on Friday afternoon.
Gold plunged 5.5% from record levels on Tuesday, but was able to recover some of those losses to close out the week down more than 1.5%.
The company outpaced third quarter estimates with adjusted earnings per share figures of $0.45 (vs. expectations of $0.36) and revenue of $47.185 billion versus expectations of $43.7 billion.
Sean Conlon and Pia Sing of CNBC also report Dow rallies 400 points for first close above 47,000 ever following mild inflation report:
U.S. stocks closed at new heights on Friday as cool inflation data spurred optimism among investors that the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate-cutting path, boosting the U.S. economy and justifying higher valuations for equities.
The Dow Jones Industrial average rose 472.51 points, or 1.01%, to 47,207.12, securing its first close above the 47,000 level ever. The S&P 500 added 0.79% to 6,791.69, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.15% to 23,204.87. All three major averages closed at records.
The September consumer price index report — which was delayed because of the U.S. government shutdown — rose 0.3% on the month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s just below the 0.4% and 3.1% that economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. When excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at 0.2% last month and 3% on a 12-month basis, also lighter than the Dow Jones forecasts for 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively.
Following the CPI data, traders increased their bets that the Fed will cut rates at both its remaining two meetings this year. Odds for a December cut initially jumped to 98.5% from roughly 91% odds before the data, per the CME FedWatch tool. Odds for a cut next week remained above 95%.
Hopes that more rate cuts would stimulate economic activity sent bank stocks higher during the trading day, with key names such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup each rising 2%. Other names in the financials sector, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, similarly advanced.
To be sure, the headline annual rate did represent a slight uptick from the prior month. Most government economic data — including weekly and monthly jobs figures — remains postponed because of the shutdown.
“There was little in today’s benign CPI report to ‘spook’ the Fed and we continue to expect further easing at next week’s Fed meeting,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “A December rate cut also remains likely with the current data drought providing the Fed with little reason to deviate from the path set out in the dot plot.”
The markets largely ignored a proclamation from President Donald Trump that he was ending trade negotiations with Canada because of an advertisement used by Ontario featuring former President Ronald Reagan “speaking negatively” about tariffs. The ad, which Trump deemed “FAKE,” quotes Reagan’s presidential radio address from April 1987, in which the former president says that “trade barriers hurt every American worker and consumer” in the long run.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said later Friday that his province is going to pause airing the ad after this weekend’s World Series games so that U.S.-Canada trade talks can restart.
Major indexes notched their second winning week in a row, with all three gaining around 2%. The S&P 500 is now up 15% for the year, and the Nasdaq is up 20%.
Stocks are responding to earnings beats this season with significant returns, Barclays saysThe earnings beats seen this third-quarter reporting season are driving higher-than-average equity returns, according to Barclays.
“Though we’re still in the early innings of reporting season (just 34% of S&P 500 market cap is expected to have reported results by the end of this week), stocks are reacting positively to EPS beats thus far,” said strategist Venu Krishna in a note. “Companies beating the consensus estimate have delivered a median beat of ~6% (~8% cap weighted) and outperformed [S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index] by 67 [basis points] over the first trading session after reporting results, compared to a [long-term] median of 33 [basis points].”
“Given the small number of misses to date, we will get a better sense of the average reaction to an EPS miss later in the season,” he continued. “The reaction to beats is an incremental indicator that a strong earnings season will be unusually critical to sustaining further upside for US equities, considering the elevated [implied volatility] into results highlighted by our derivatives strategists combined with long institutional and systematic equity positioning.”
Another earnings week, some companies did better than others. GM, Ford did well, Netflix and Tesla disappointed. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) got clobbered today after guiding lower.
Next week is an even bigger week with Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft all reporting as well as Apple.
This week they ran a lot of megacap tech shares up. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was up 8% today after IBM said its chips can be used for qantum computing. Shares are up 108% this year:

Of course, quantum computing stocks popped earlier this week after Trump said the US government might buy stakes in some of them but they didn't hold their gains.
Alphabet (Google) shares hit another record high as the company gets set to report next week and all eyes will be on its search data and how they're holding up in this new AI enabled world.

Alphabet and Meta remain cheap relative to other Mag-7 stocks trading at 26 times forward P/E.
A complete list of companies whose shares are making a new high is available here.
If you want to make money in these markets, I suggest you track these shares closely and buy when they dip.
Below, you will find the top performing large cap stocks this week (full list here):

In other news, cooler-than-expected inflation reading keeps Fed on course for a rate cut next week.
The Fed is more worried about employment than inflation at this stage but it will be interesting to see what happens when inventories run out and companies start passing on the tariffs to consumers.
We aren't there yet and Trump might tell companies to wait for corporate tax cuts before passing on the tariff so it remains a little murky as to how this will all play out.
Below, the CNBC Investment Committee debate their strategies when stocks are at record highs. Great discussion, listen to their positioning.
Next, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee joins CNBC to explain why he still sees upside for stocks and crypto heading into year-end. He discusses the Fed’s rate cuts, gold’s peak, Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Third, Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss how far stocks can continue to rise, the power of the retail investor and much more.
Fourth, Lo Toney, Plexo Capital, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the megacap tech earnings next week, if it's too early to know more about AI profits and much more.
Fifth, Chase Lochmiller, Crusoe Co-Founder & CEO, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the company’s $10 billion valuation, the build-out of AI data centers in energy-rich regions, and how Crusoe is tackling power constraints.
Lastly, Chanos & Company President and Founder Jim Chanos says it's a "party like it's 1999" in credit markets. He speaks to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu.







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