cycles

Remember that claim ECRI is always right on economic cycle predictions?

Remember that claim a while back on this site that ECRI has always been right in predicting recoveries and that's why everybody else is so wrong?

Well, it looks like Mish wrote up quite a detailed reality check on ECRI's claim:

The [WLI] is an index that’s been around for over a quarter of a century, and over that time (shown here) it has correctly predicted every recession and recovery in real-time.

Along with many other examples, Mike Shedlock found this tasty tidbit from November 2007, the month before the official start of this recession: