The May report Personal Income and Outlays from theBEA gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 2/3rds of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is usually the key metric for determining the ultimate trajectory of GDP each quarter. This key monthly release is detailed in the report on Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis.
Other than the employment report and the GDP report itself, the monthly report on Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis is probably the most important economic release we see monthly.
The January personal income and outlays report is horrific. Personal Income nose dived -3.6% from December and hasn't seen this big of a monthly drop since January 1993. That's 20 years ago. The blame is being laid on the payroll tax holiday expiration and December did see a rise in personal income also not seen since December 2004. Disposable income is worse. DPI dropped -4.0%, even when adjusted for inflation. Ouch!
Personal income decreased $159.8 billion, or 1.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $143.8 billion, or 1.3 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.4 billion, or 0.4 percent. In May, personal income increased $155.1 billion, or 1.3 percent, DPI increased $168.7 billion, or 1.6 percent, and PCE increased $9.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.
The MSM will blame the worst month-to-month drop in 4 years to Stimulus one time payments.
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