panic

Is this 1873 instead of 1929?

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Stumbled across an interesting article - a reprint from the Chronicle of Higher Education.

The Real Great Depression
The depression of 1929 is the wrong model for the current economic crisis

By SCOTT REYNOLDS NELSON Scott Reynolds Nelson is a professor of history at the College of William and Mary. Among his books is Steel Drivin' Man: John Henry, the Untold Story of an American legend (Oxford University Press, 2006).

From a Chronicle article, The Real Great Depression.

Not being particularly well educated in history - especially our own, we tend to forget how volatile our economy was during the 19th century - and how devastating the various recurring 'Panics' could be.

The Blogosphere Banking Panic (I.)

There have been recent blog posts which imply a panic in the banking sector worse than the Great Depression, with highly respected financial writer Mish a/k/a Mike Shedlock making the extraordinary claim that "The entire US banking system is insolvent." His essential reasoning:

There is roughly $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. $2.60 Trillion of that is uninsured. There is only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits. Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where is the rest of the loot? The answer is in off balance sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds where debt is amazingly paid back with more debt, and all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30-1 or more. Those loans cannot be paid back.

What cannot be paid back will be defaulted on.

Is he right?

Bankruptcy 2015 ? (Part II.)

In Part I of this series, I examined the 1992 best seller entitled "Bankruptcy 1995", which had predicted that the US would become unable to service its national debt as early as 1995 due to soaring budget deficits. So dire and well-documented was the warning that it affected the outcome of the 1992 presidential election, helping to elect Bill Clinton. In light of new looting of the national treasury by George W. Bush and the Republican Congress, I re-read the book to see if any of its predictions were now coming true. I posted those predictions, and the book's thesis that continued budget deficits would drive up interest rates and lead to "Death by Hyperinflation" or "Death by Panic" in Part I.
But "Bankruptcy 1995" obviously didn't happen, in spite of the fact that deficits have continued to be run nearly every year since then. Only part of the reason was the fiscally responsible Clinton tax and budget plan that began in 1993. In this diary I examine how a long-term, continuous decline in interest rates has actually reduced the carrying costs of the National Debt, and why that means the sky Hasn't fallen -- yet.

Bankruptcy 2015 ? (Part I.)

Is the US going bankrupt? With an intractable trade deficit and a national debt in excess of $9 trillion dollars, and an ongoing collapse in both the financial sector and of the national ($$$) currency, it may seem so. With that in mind, it is timely to consider documentary evidence of just what such a national bankruptcy would look like.

(NOTE: This is a republication of a diary originally published about a year ago at the Big Orange Political Blog, with minor updates to incorporate events that have occurred since)